Good spot by @SamCoatesSky: the swing to Labour in Tees Valley was bigger than the swing in the West Midlands.
Even silver lining vibe for government falls apart on paper.
But that is explained by the fact there was a much bigger swing to the Tories 2017 - 2021 than occurred in the West Midlands. Compared with 2017 the 2024 Teeside result represents a 5% swing to the Tories whilst the 2024 West Midlands result shows a tiny - but decisive - swing to Labour.
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
Imposing a speed limit on cyclists who don't generally have speedometers fitted is going to be tricky. Perhaps anyone planning to ride that fast regularly should fit one - I doubt I've ever gone more than 20mph. I'd have thought this guy could be done for cycling without due care, it just doesn't sound safe to ride at that speed in an area with pedestrians. If you want to do timed laps hire a track to do them in, not a public space. I generally assume that any pedestrian will walk into the street directly into my path without looking at any moment and cycle accordingly, what this guy was doing just sounds reckless.
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
Imposing a speed limit on cyclists who don't generally have speedometers fitted is going to be tricky. Perhaps anyone planning to ride that fast regularly should fit one - I doubt I've ever gone more than 20mph. I'd have thought this guy could be done for cycling without due care, it just doesn't sound safe to ride at that speed in an area with pedestrians. If you want to do timed laps hire a track to do them in, not a public space. I generally assume that any pedestrian will walk into the street directly into my path without looking at any moment and cycle accordingly, what this guy was doing just sounds reckless.
‘Wanton and furious pedalling’ I’d have thought, it’s been used before.
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
Imposing a speed limit on cyclists who don't generally have speedometers fitted is going to be tricky. Perhaps anyone planning to ride that fast regularly should fit one - I doubt I've ever gone more than 20mph. I'd have thought this guy could be done for cycling without due care, it just doesn't sound safe to ride at that speed in an area with pedestrians. If you want to do timed laps hire a track to do them in, not a public space. I generally assume that any pedestrian will walk into the street directly into my path without looking at any moment and cycle accordingly, what this guy was doing just sounds reckless.
The w@nker probably drives, and he probably drives in the same w@nker fashion - aggressively, and with little consideration to others.
I find it quite easy to break the new 20MPH limit in the village on my new bike. I try not to, though.
As an aside, it would be interesting to know if he was in the lead in the pace formation, or one of the ones behind the leader. either way, it sounds an idiotic thing to do on that sort of road.
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I'm surprised that they didn't try to prosecute on "furious cycling" or whatever it's called. A legacy law from riding a horse recklessly.
Impossible to impose a speed limit as it would involve adding a speedometer to all push bikes, registration plates etc in line with North Korea.
But expect 8 months of the Tories making this a key campaign pledge, along with taxing oat milk and banning purple hair.
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I'm surprised that they didn't try to prosecute on "furious cycling" or whatever it's called. A legacy law from riding a horse recklessly.
Impossible to impose a speed limit as it would involve adding a speedometer to all push bikes, registration plates etc in line with North Korea.
But expect 8 months of the Tories making this a key campaign pledge, along with taxing oat milk and banning purple hair.
Perhaps the decision not to prosecute was because the Government is no longer interested in punishing people for breaking Road Traffic Law?
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I'm surprised that they didn't try to prosecute on "furious cycling" or whatever it's called. A legacy law from riding a horse recklessly.
Impossible to impose a speed limit as it would involve adding a speedometer to all push bikes, registration plates etc in line with North Korea.
But expect 8 months of the Tories making this a key campaign pledge, along with taxing oat milk and banning purple hair.
Analogously, nobody says you can't prosecute drunk drivers because it would involve adding a breathalyser to all cars. If you think you might be doing 20+ you can voluntarily put a GPS computer on your bike. And I would bet my house to a fiver that a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton already has one.
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I'm surprised that they didn't try to prosecute on "furious cycling" or whatever it's called. A legacy law from riding a horse recklessly.
Impossible to impose a speed limit as it would involve adding a speedometer to all push bikes, registration plates etc in line with North Korea.
But expect 8 months of the Tories making this a key campaign pledge, along with taxing oat milk and banning purple hair.
Analogously, nobody says you can't prosecute drunk drivers because it would involve adding a breathalyser to all cars. If you think you might be doing 20+ you can voluntarily put a GPS computer on your bike. And I would bet my house to a fiver that a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton already has one.
I just use my sports watch to see how fast slow I'm going; you don't need a dedicated cycle computer, though one would be easier to glance at.
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I'm surprised that they didn't try to prosecute on "furious cycling" or whatever it's called. A legacy law from riding a horse recklessly.
Impossible to impose a speed limit as it would involve adding a speedometer to all push bikes, registration plates etc in line with North Korea.
But expect 8 months of the Tories making this a key campaign pledge, along with taxing oat milk and banning purple hair.
Analogously, nobody says you can't prosecute drunk drivers because it would involve adding a breathalyser to all cars. If you think you might be doing 20+ you can voluntarily put a GPS computer on your bike. And I would bet my house to a fiver that a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton already has one.
I just use my sports watch to see how fast slow I'm going; you don't need a dedicated cycle computer, though one would be easier to glance at.
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I'm surprised that they didn't try to prosecute on "furious cycling" or whatever it's called. A legacy law from riding a horse recklessly.
Impossible to impose a speed limit as it would involve adding a speedometer to all push bikes, registration plates etc in line with North Korea.
But expect 8 months of the Tories making this a key campaign pledge, along with taxing oat milk and banning purple hair.
Analogously, nobody says you can't prosecute drunk drivers because it would involve adding a breathalyser to all cars. If you think you might be doing 20+ you can voluntarily put a GPS computer on your bike. And I would bet my house to a fiver that a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton already has one.
Maybe we should add a breathalyser to all cars. Would save a lot more lives than speedometers on bicycles.
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I'm surprised that they didn't try to prosecute on "furious cycling" or whatever it's called. A legacy law from riding a horse recklessly.
Impossible to impose a speed limit as it would involve adding a speedometer to all push bikes, registration plates etc in line with North Korea.
But expect 8 months of the Tories making this a key campaign pledge, along with taxing oat milk and banning purple hair.
Analogously, nobody says you can't prosecute drunk drivers because it would involve adding a breathalyser to all cars. If you think you might be doing 20+ you can voluntarily put a GPS computer on your bike. And I would bet my house to a fiver that a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton already has one.
Maybe we should add a breathalyser to all cars. Would save a lot more lives than speedometers on bicycles.
If we cyclists want to stop batsh*t insane ideas like 'speedometers on bicycles', then we need to discourage the poor or bad behaviour exhibited by too many of our community.
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I'm surprised that they didn't try to prosecute on "furious cycling" or whatever it's called. A legacy law from riding a horse recklessly.
Impossible to impose a speed limit as it would involve adding a speedometer to all push bikes, registration plates etc in line with North Korea.
But expect 8 months of the Tories making this a key campaign pledge, along with taxing oat milk and banning purple hair.
Analogously, nobody says you can't prosecute drunk drivers because it would involve adding a breathalyser to all cars. If you think you might be doing 20+ you can voluntarily put a GPS computer on your bike. And I would bet my house to a fiver that a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton already has one.
I just use my sports watch to see how fast slow I'm going; you don't need a dedicated cycle computer, though one would be easier to glance at.
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I'm surprised that they didn't try to prosecute on "furious cycling" or whatever it's called. A legacy law from riding a horse recklessly.
Impossible to impose a speed limit as it would involve adding a speedometer to all push bikes, registration plates etc in line with North Korea.
But expect 8 months of the Tories making this a key campaign pledge, along with taxing oat milk and banning purple hair.
Analogously, nobody says you can't prosecute drunk drivers because it would involve adding a breathalyser to all cars. If you think you might be doing 20+ you can voluntarily put a GPS computer on your bike. And I would bet my house to a fiver that a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton already has one.
Maybe we should add a breathalyser to all cars. Would save a lot more lives than speedometers on bicycles.
If we cyclists want to stop batsh*t insane ideas like 'speedometers on bicycles', then we need to discourage the poor or bad behaviour exhibited by too many of our community.
You should see the sort of behaviour some pedestrians get up to. It's time for the walking community to stand up and call it out.
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I'm surprised that they didn't try to prosecute on "furious cycling" or whatever it's called. A legacy law from riding a horse recklessly.
Impossible to impose a speed limit as it would involve adding a speedometer to all push bikes, registration plates etc in line with North Korea.
But expect 8 months of the Tories making this a key campaign pledge, along with taxing oat milk and banning purple hair.
Analogously, nobody says you can't prosecute drunk drivers because it would involve adding a breathalyser to all cars. If you think you might be doing 20+ you can voluntarily put a GPS computer on your bike. And I would bet my house to a fiver that a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton already has one.
I just use my sports watch to see how fast slow I'm going; you don't need a dedicated cycle computer, though one would be easier to glance at.
You also don't need a sports watch!
So what do you use then, as a matter of interest?
Wahoo cycle computer. Basically just so I can keep Strava records without caning the battery on my phone, but I also now love it for compatibility with rearview radar.
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I'm surprised that they didn't try to prosecute on "furious cycling" or whatever it's called. A legacy law from riding a horse recklessly.
Impossible to impose a speed limit as it would involve adding a speedometer to all push bikes, registration plates etc in line with North Korea.
But expect 8 months of the Tories making this a key campaign pledge, along with taxing oat milk and banning purple hair.
Analogously, nobody says you can't prosecute drunk drivers because it would involve adding a breathalyser to all cars. If you think you might be doing 20+ you can voluntarily put a GPS computer on your bike. And I would bet my house to a fiver that a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton already has one.
Maybe we should add a breathalyser to all cars. Would save a lot more lives than speedometers on bicycles.
If we cyclists want to stop batsh*t insane ideas like 'speedometers on bicycles', then we need to discourage the poor or bad behaviour exhibited by too many of our community.
You should see the sort of behaviour some pedestrians get up to. It's time for the walking community to stand up and call it out.
I have done in the past.
But do you realise your attitude kinda stinks? Cyclists are not always the victim, as this case shows.
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I'm surprised that they didn't try to prosecute on "furious cycling" or whatever it's called. A legacy law from riding a horse recklessly.
Impossible to impose a speed limit as it would involve adding a speedometer to all push bikes, registration plates etc in line with North Korea.
But expect 8 months of the Tories making this a key campaign pledge, along with taxing oat milk and banning purple hair.
Analogously, nobody says you can't prosecute drunk drivers because it would involve adding a breathalyser to all cars. If you think you might be doing 20+ you can voluntarily put a GPS computer on your bike. And I would bet my house to a fiver that a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton already has one.
I just use my sports watch to see how fast slow I'm going; you don't need a dedicated cycle computer, though one would be easier to glance at.
You also don't need a sports watch!
So what do you use then, as a matter of interest?
Wahoo cycle computer. Basically just so I can keep Strava records without caning the battery on my phone, but I also now love it for compatibility with rearview radar.
Ah yes; but as I said, I don't have a cycle computer, but do have a sportswatch.
*If* I get into cycling more regularly, I might get a dedicated computer. Would you recommend a Wahoo model? I'm currently a Garmin man with watches and the like.
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I'm surprised that they didn't try to prosecute on "furious cycling" or whatever it's called. A legacy law from riding a horse recklessly.
Impossible to impose a speed limit as it would involve adding a speedometer to all push bikes, registration plates etc in line with North Korea.
But expect 8 months of the Tories making this a key campaign pledge, along with taxing oat milk and banning purple hair.
Analogously, nobody says you can't prosecute drunk drivers because it would involve adding a breathalyser to all cars. If you think you might be doing 20+ you can voluntarily put a GPS computer on your bike. And I would bet my house to a fiver that a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton already has one.
I just use my sports watch to see how fast slow I'm going; you don't need a dedicated cycle computer, though one would be easier to glance at.
You also don't need a sports watch!
So what do you use then, as a matter of interest?
Wahoo cycle computer. Basically just so I can keep Strava records without caning the battery on my phone, but I also now love it for compatibility with rearview radar.
Ah yes; but as I said, I don't have a cycle computer, but do have a sportswatch.
*If* I get into cycling more regularly, I might get a dedicated computer. Would you recommend a Wahoo model? I'm currently a Garmin man with watches and the like.
I like wahoo. Only thing is be aware of the size of whatever you get. I expected it to be the size of a phone, it's more like the size of a matchbox and I can't see much on it without glasses.
I wonder what will replace the Conservatives.... January 2025 would guarantee a Kim Campbell scenario.
The only thing that can save the Conservatives now is events. Sadly for them, there is precious little time for such events to unfold, it is hard to think of events that would help them enough, the events might help RefUK rather than the Conservatives, and Starmer is too boring to provide such events anyway.
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I'm surprised that they didn't try to prosecute on "furious cycling" or whatever it's called. A legacy law from riding a horse recklessly.
Impossible to impose a speed limit as it would involve adding a speedometer to all push bikes, registration plates etc in line with North Korea.
But expect 8 months of the Tories making this a key campaign pledge, along with taxing oat milk and banning purple hair.
Analogously, nobody says you can't prosecute drunk drivers because it would involve adding a breathalyser to all cars. If you think you might be doing 20+ you can voluntarily put a GPS computer on your bike. And I would bet my house to a fiver that a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton already has one.
Jennifer Williams @JenWilliams_FT · 3h I suspect [Andy Street] will be missed among those, on both sides of the political spectrum, who are focused on rebalancing the economy. His brand of pragmatism is not currently the MO of British politics
The mayoral elections demonstrated that there is a way to win for a Conservative. This is to make out that you have nothing to do with the Tories. He ran, not as a Tory, but as “Ben”. His campaign literature treated the prime minister as a non-person and he even “forgot” to wear a blue rosette at his count.
… the prime minister’s residual allies and apologists… have been trying to tranquillise the herd with the argument that a coup attempt would be utter madness whether it failed or succeeded. It is not that they disagree that Tory prospects look dire. What they fear is that a bid to depose Mr Sunak would make their party look even more absurd than it does already.
In the immediate wake of Friday’s results, some of the insurrectionists sounded like they were giving up, and loyalist ministers started to declare that the prime minister was safe in his job, at least until the voters get their hands on him. But that was before Saturday brought the Tory-deflating result from London and the Tory-stunning outcome in the West Midlands. The heaviest blow…was Andy Street… being defeated in an area packed with swing parliamentary seats. He’d fought his contest not as a Tory, but as “Andy”. His campaign material was in a non-Conservative livery of green and purple. In his case, the distancing trick was not enough to spare him from his party’s national unpopularity.
The fundamental vulnerability of the prime minister is that he got the job on the promise to his party that he could turn around their fortunes, and has instead led them to even lower nadirs. Projecting himself as the man to fix the howling mess he inherited has always invited the question: which party created the howling mess in the first place? He asked to be judged on economic growth (which is anaemic), NHS waiting lists (which are enormous), and stopping the boats (which are still coming).
One handicap for the plotters is that they are no less implicated in years of failure and strife than anyone else in the Conservative party. Another is persuading colleagues that their scheme would not leave the Tories in an even deeper hole than the one they are already stuck down. Rightwing “red meat” is not in short supply from Mr Sunak. The trouble for the Tories is that even rightwing voters aren’t finding it appetising while centrist ones are repelled.
One reason his allies nevertheless think it likely he will survive is that the insurrectionists have never had a coherent plan for what would happen the day after a coup. There is no miracle worker ready to swoop in with a magic formula to save the Conservative party. Even if he survives the manoeuvres of those in his party who want rid of him, the verdict he will not be able to evade for all that much longer is that of the country. Pretending not to be a Tory won’t be an option at the general election.
We’ve still brexited. And it will never change. Sorry
You’re right. We cannot change what happened on 31 January 2020. However we can and will rejoin. Sorry. But do keep posting the holiday snaps. They’re super fun!
Do you think Starmer will put a commitment to a second referendum in the next Labour manifesto?
No. It will take a bit longer than that. I think we’ll be back roughly on the 20th anniversary of the first referendum. I don’t rule out being back in the Single Market this decade though.
Nah, just try and line up the ducks that get us back into the EU, it is absurdly unlikely
1. Government with huge majority recently elected (and willing to risk it)
2. Has to do it early on in term
3. No chance of any EU nation vetoing (oops)
4. Negotiation of membership goes just fine (oops)
5. British people willing to join euro and Schenghen
6. EU doing economically much better than UK
7. Polls definitively in favour of EU membership again
8. British people OK with Free Movement
9. British PM willing to expend enormous capital to make Britain subject to EU laws created by unelected eurocrats, and willing to divide the nation coz this is a good thing??
Once you look at it like that, you realise it is simply never going to happen. It's done. 2016 was it. The Revolution. C'est finit
Especially six. Even with the cluster that was the Truss premiership, the UK has still outgrown the EU since the full Brexit happened. And of course their unemployment rate is almost 60% higher.
The more one thinks about it, the more insane the idea becomes
Any British PM even contemplating an EU Rejoin referendum will be highly aware of what happened to David Cameron when he confidently called a referendum he was sure he would win 70/30. He lost, and it ended his career, and that is his epitaph: lost the biggest vote ever, and is now seen as a tragic failure
I am a Leaver, and I am evermore glad we Left, but I do genuinely have an open mind, and yet I cannot foresee circumstances, outside war or some other black swan, when any British PM will risk their entire career to force us back into the EU, and for what? To yield loads of his/her political power and hand it to inferior eurocrats in Brussels? Why? Who would do that? It simply won't ever happen. It's not going to happen. It's done
What WILL happen is a load of slightly bad tempered bilateral agreements tweaking the single market rules twixt them and us so that we slowly get to a somewhat better place, that suits both sides, this is what happens with Norway and Switzerland etc
And of course similar bilateral agreements will happen with the USA and Canada and Japan and lots of other places. This is how normal countries exist in the world. On current trends, about two thirds of UK exports will be non-EU in a decade's time. The business interest will run in the other direction.
The EU is pretty much the largest market in the world, and it is right on our door step. Which other countries are going to substitute? Mexico? The US? Indonesia? Nigeria Those countries are already committed to NAFTA, ASEAN or ECOWAS respectively. The reality is that trade is done with your geographical neighbours, and in 10 years time we will still be trading massively more with Poland than the Philippines. It is time to get real and face these facts.
The UK is a trading nation, and being locked out from the EU has already severely damaged our GDP capacity and forced the sale of discounted UK companies into foreign ownership. Now, the only thing masking a collapse in productivity and the large equity discount is large scale immigration which flatters our GDP numbers. So make your mind up: closer integration into the EU, large scale immigration or years of negative GDP and the wholesale takeover of UK business. What are you going to choose?
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I'm surprised that they didn't try to prosecute on "furious cycling" or whatever it's called. A legacy law from riding a horse recklessly.
Impossible to impose a speed limit as it would involve adding a speedometer to all push bikes, registration plates etc in line with North Korea.
But expect 8 months of the Tories making this a key campaign pledge, along with taxing oat milk and banning purple hair.
Analogously, nobody says you can't prosecute drunk drivers because it would involve adding a breathalyser to all cars. If you think you might be doing 20+ you can voluntarily put a GPS computer on your bike. And I would bet my house to a fiver that a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton already has one.
Maybe we should add a breathalyser to all cars. Would save a lot more lives than speedometers on bicycles.
FWIW cyclists must obey speed limits set by speed limit signs in Germany, even though bicycles don't have licence plates and few have speedometers. Of course very few are fined (except for cycling too fast in a pedestrian area that allows bicycles, where you are supposed to stick to walking pace) - speed cameras can't identify you, but on the spot fines do happen and you can get points on your driving licence too in theory. If you caused an accident while speeding you would face liability/insurance problems, as well as being open to prosecution.
The change this country needs and wants is coming.
I fear that those expecting drastic change are going to be disappointed. Starmer's government will be subject to many of the same financial and international problems that have caused problems for this government.
As the so-called 'nationalisation' of the railways shows; the change might be one of terminology only, rather than the drastic change many were calling for. And may not improve things anyway.
On the other hand, a little competence would be a pleasant change...
The change this country needs and wants is coming.
I fear that those expecting drastic change are going to be disappointed. Starmer's government will be subject to many of the same financial and international problems that have caused problems for this government.
As the so-called 'nationalisation' of the railways shows; the change might be one of terminology only, rather than the drastic change many were calling for. And may not improve things anyway.
On the other hand, a little competence would be a pleasant change...
Labour have promised to introduce free breakfast clubs in every primary school in England!
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I'm surprised that they didn't try to prosecute on "furious cycling" or whatever it's called. A legacy law from riding a horse recklessly.
Impossible to impose a speed limit as it would involve adding a speedometer to all push bikes, registration plates etc in line with North Korea.
But expect 8 months of the Tories making this a key campaign pledge, along with taxing oat milk and banning purple hair.
Analogously, nobody says you can't prosecute drunk drivers because it would involve adding a breathalyser to all cars. If you think you might be doing 20+ you can voluntarily put a GPS computer on your bike. And I would bet my house to a fiver that a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton already has one.
Maybe we should add a breathalyser to all cars. Would save a lot more lives than speedometers on bicycles.
FWIW cyclists must obey speed limits set by speed limit signs in Germany, even though bicycles don't have licence plates and few have speedometers. Of course very few are fined (except for cycling too fast in a pedestrian area that allows bicycles, where you are supposed to stick to walking pace) - speed cameras can't identify you, but on the spot fines do happen and you can get points on your driving licence too in theory. If you caused an accident while speeding you would face liability/insurance problems, as well as being open to prosecution.
It's the same old story: in most cases, no-one 'owns' the road. In most cases, drivers, cyclists and pedestrians have to muddle along together as best they can. And the best way of doing that is to show a little respect and consideration to other road users. It doesn't matter if you think you're in the 'right' in performing an action, if that action leads to you, or another person, being placed into danger. Don't do it.
(I am not saying I'm perfect: I walk, run, cycle and drive; and I occasionally make mistakes when walking, running, cycling and driving. I do try to learn from those mistakes, though. The other day I put myself into a silly position at a slow-speed junction when cycling; fortunately the other driver saw my mistake and allowed me out. My mistake.)
The change this country needs and wants is coming.
I fear that those expecting drastic change are going to be disappointed. Starmer's government will be subject to many of the same financial and international problems that have caused problems for this government.
As the so-called 'nationalisation' of the railways shows; the change might be one of terminology only, rather than the drastic change many were calling for. And may not improve things anyway.
On the other hand, a little competence would be a pleasant change...
I’ve heard this so often before a seachange does happen. Before my time but people said it about Thatcher (incredibly) and Blair.
Starmer’s Labour will radically change this country, socially as much as economically.
And I suspect it will be a long-term project. The tories won’t heed Andy Street’s warning. They will lurch to the right and down the rabbit hole before (presumably) they eventually come back. The ongoing anti-woke culture wars and nasty policies, still parroted on here, tell me that they are utterly out of touch with the country’s mood.
I’m afraid those on the Right telling themselves that a) nothing will change or b) it will all go pear-shaped are sitting in a locked windowless room talking to themselves, whilst the rest of the country begins to breathe new life again.
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I'm surprised that they didn't try to prosecute on "furious cycling" or whatever it's called. A legacy law from riding a horse recklessly.
Impossible to impose a speed limit as it would involve adding a speedometer to all push bikes, registration plates etc in line with North Korea.
But expect 8 months of the Tories making this a key campaign pledge, along with taxing oat milk and banning purple hair.
Analogously, nobody says you can't prosecute drunk drivers because it would involve adding a breathalyser to all cars. If you think you might be doing 20+ you can voluntarily put a GPS computer on your bike. And I would bet my house to a fiver that a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton already has one.
Maybe we should add a breathalyser to all cars. Would save a lot more lives than speedometers on bicycles.
FWIW cyclists must obey speed limits set by speed limit signs in Germany, even though bicycles don't have licence plates and few have speedometers. Of course very few are fined (except for cycling too fast in a pedestrian area that allows bicycles, where you are supposed to stick to walking pace) - speed cameras can't identify you, but on the spot fines do happen and you can get points on your driving licence too in theory. If you caused an accident while speeding you would face liability/insurance problems, as well as being open to prosecution.
It's the same old story: in most cases, no-one 'owns' the road. In most cases, drivers, cyclists and pedestrians have to muddle along together as best they can. And the best way of doing that is to show a little respect and consideration to other road users. It doesn't matter if you think you're in the 'right' in performing an action, if that action leads to you, or another person, being placed into danger. Don't do it.
(I am not saying I'm perfect: I walk, run, cycle and drive; and I occasionally make mistakes when walking, running, cycling and driving. I do try to learn from those mistakes, though. The other day I put myself into a silly position at a slow-speed junction when cycling; fortunately the other driver saw my mistake and allowed me out. My mistake.)
Surely the cyclist should be prosecuted for manslaughter. If you cycle so fast you have "zero reaction time" then you are doing something that is likely to kill someone.
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I'm surprised that they didn't try to prosecute on "furious cycling" or whatever it's called. A legacy law from riding a horse recklessly.
Impossible to impose a speed limit as it would involve adding a speedometer to all push bikes, registration plates etc in line with North Korea.
But expect 8 months of the Tories making this a key campaign pledge, along with taxing oat milk and banning purple hair.
Analogously, nobody says you can't prosecute drunk drivers because it would involve adding a breathalyser to all cars. If you think you might be doing 20+ you can voluntarily put a GPS computer on your bike. And I would bet my house to a fiver that a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton already has one.
Not really an analogy though, is it?
Yes it is. The claim in both cases is "you can't prosecute me for exceeding limits of variables when I am not legally obliged to have the equipment needed to measure those variables."
I honestly think he might go for it, and have had a small saver at 20/1 just in case.
You could however effectively cover the possibility by backing Con seats below 50, or percentage vote share below 20, since both would be near certainties if if he is so minded.
Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 57m January election remains underpriced
I bet on that yesterday, and December.
I think September underpriced. I don't think Sunak fancies conference season.
Yes I don’t know how to second guess the timing so I’m not in on this market yet.
January feels like utter lunacy and might lead to a Canadageddon.
December would be tricky. I know it happened last time but that had a specific set of justifications which don’t really pertain this time.
We’re too late for May and (I think) June. So that leaves 5 options: July through November.
The problem from a betting POV is that we’re dealing with a volatile Party, in febrile mood. I have no way of applying my head over heart metric to this one at the moment. Almost anything could happen with the current Conservative Party.
p.s. the one and only way that they could get away with January with the electorate is if you are betting on a change of leader now. Why? Because he or she could quite fairly justify a 6 month run at the job first.
Otherwise it’s political suicide for the Party if Sunak holds until the bitter January end - through Christmas, New Year, in the Longest Month when no one has any money? Would be lunacy.
Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 57m January election remains underpriced
I bet on that yesterday, and December.
I think September underpriced. I don't think Sunak fancies conference season.
Yes I don’t know how to second guess the timing so I’m not in on this market yet.
January feels like utter lunacy and might lead to a Canadageddon.
December would be tricky. I know it happened last time but that had a specific set of justifications which don’t really pertain this time.
We’re too late for May and (I think) June. So that leaves 5 options: July through November.
The problem from a betting POV is that we’re dealing with a volatile Party, in febrile mood. I have no way of applying my head over heart metric to this one at the moment. Almost anything could happen with the current Conservative Party.
The only sure bet is that they’re going to lose.
In such a confused and confusing situation,it is often a good idea to back the outsider, which is why I have had a small saver on Jan 2025 at 20/1. Nobody knows,and this mob could do anything,no matter how daft.
I know this may not affect the majority of you on here but one of the biggest problems with January is the long haul from pre-Christmas pay day through to the end of January.
2025 is as bad as it gets with Friday 31st January the normal pay day: that’s AFTER the election has to be held.
December payday is traditionally before Dec 25th and as Christmas and New Year are the big spends, you’d be getting the electorate to the polling stations when they’re living on fumes.
I have a question. Is it better to rent a flat in London than buy one?
The flat would cost £350k to buy but the rental level is around £1300. Buying... mortgage interest/cost of capital would be £17,500 per year (at 5%). Renting... £1300 per month, so £15,600 per year.
Buying - you have to also pay service charges on a flat and are exposed to 'leasehold risk' in all its various forms. None of that applies when you are renting. Also when renting you can get the landlord to fix the appliances and deal with problems with the building.
This got me thinking. Is property in London massively overpriced and due a correction? My theory is that the market it still priced based on low interest rates that existed from around 2015-2021, indeed prices are basically frozen from this time. When interest rates were 2%, the mortgage interest/cost of capital for the property cited above would be £7000 per year and buying the flat would make sense. But not at 5%.
Who knows whether it will be 5% forever and if renting at end of day you have nothing. Unless the place burns down , if buying it will be worth at least what you put into it so you will have all your money back. Therefore looks like risking £2K to get minimum £15K a year , does not make renting look attractive to me.
Helpful advice to Rishi Sunak from Suella Braverman in in today's Telegraph "The hole to dig us out is the PM's and it is time to start shovelling". As any fule kno if you are in a hole - STOP DIGGING
The fact that the regulations only apply to phones is another point in favour of my argument that it's mainly a PR exercise. Why not push the regulation out to all electronic devices below a certain wattage?
They are, this is only phase one. They wanted to tackle the devices that caused the most electronic waste first and then they mandate it for other devices next.
You are utterly clueless.
You are utterly credulous.
Other than the iPhone, the mobile industry had already standardised on USB-C. Arguably the net effect of Apple switching was to create more waste by making people rebuy their accessories.
Why would they have to re-buy accessories if the industry had already standardised USB-C? You contradict your own argument.
"Other than the iPhone" - the iPhone is literally the biggest selling single phone in history.
It's a product line, not a single phone. Apple's market position in Europe has never been as dominant as it is in the US. Android phones have the majority of the market in the EU.
Android phones, not Android phone. The iPhone is the biggest selling phone in the EU. Nothing comes close to it.
It is laughable to suggest that forcing Apple to adopt USB-C has not had an impact. As I already posted to you, if the EU had not acted, Apple would still be using Lightning. They were never going to change, why would they?
Because they were hitting the technical limitations of Lightning. Why did they switch the iPad from Lightning to USB-C long before any EU legislation?
Because the iPad was competing with the Mac line and they wanted it to support computer accessories.
Are you saying the executive I gave you was lying when he said they would comply months before they then did? That they were always going to introduce USB-C even though there's no evidence to support your statement?
Shall we ask the other William Glenn for help, the pro EU one?
I know this may not affect the majority of you on here but one of the biggest problems with January is the long haul from pre-Christmas pay day through to the end of January.
2025 is as bad as it gets with Friday 31st January the normal pay day: that’s AFTER the election has to be held.
December payday is traditionally before Dec 25th and as Christmas and New Year are the big spends, you’d be getting the electorate to the polling stations when they’re living on fumes.
It would be political suicide.
Good morning everybody; I expect they’ll be some sore heads in political circles this morning. Whether that be from celebrating or trying to block out the memory!
While I think Heathener makes a good point about payday, I have long been of the opinion that the Prime Minister assumes something will turn up, and will therefore wait until he’s completely run out of road!
The change this country needs and wants is coming.
I fear that those expecting drastic change are going to be disappointed. Starmer's government will be subject to many of the same financial and international problems that have caused problems for this government.
As the so-called 'nationalisation' of the railways shows; the change might be one of terminology only, rather than the drastic change many were calling for. And may not improve things anyway.
On the other hand, a little competence would be a pleasant change...
I’ve heard this so often before a seachange does happen. Before my time but people said it about Thatcher (incredibly) and Blair.
Starmer’s Labour will radically change this country, socially as much as economically.
And I suspect it will be a long-term project. The tories won’t heed Andy Street’s warning. They will lurch to the right and down the rabbit hole before (presumably) they eventually come back. The ongoing anti-woke culture wars and nasty policies, still parroted on here, tell me that they are utterly out of touch with the country’s mood.
I’m afraid those on the Right telling themselves that a) nothing will change or b) it will all go pear-shaped are sitting in a locked windowless room talking to themselves, whilst the rest of the country begins to breathe new life again.
The fact that the regulations only apply to phones is another point in favour of my argument that it's mainly a PR exercise. Why not push the regulation out to all electronic devices below a certain wattage?
They are, this is only phase one. They wanted to tackle the devices that caused the most electronic waste first and then they mandate it for other devices next.
You are utterly clueless.
You are utterly credulous.
Other than the iPhone, the mobile industry had already standardised on USB-C. Arguably the net effect of Apple switching was to create more waste by making people rebuy their accessories.
Why would they have to re-buy accessories if the industry had already standardised USB-C? You contradict your own argument.
"Other than the iPhone" - the iPhone is literally the biggest selling single phone in history.
It's a product line, not a single phone. Apple's market position in Europe has never been as dominant as it is in the US. Android phones have the majority of the market in the EU.
Android phones, not Android phone. The iPhone is the biggest selling phone in the EU. Nothing comes close to it. (snip)
The change this country needs and wants is coming.
I fear that those expecting drastic change are going to be disappointed. Starmer's government will be subject to many of the same financial and international problems that have caused problems for this government.
As the so-called 'nationalisation' of the railways shows; the change might be one of terminology only, rather than the drastic change many were calling for. And may not improve things anyway.
On the other hand, a little competence would be a pleasant change...
Jury is still out on that one, we will see if the gloves come off once they have won. More likely to just be a different set of dross.
The change this country needs and wants is coming.
I fear that those expecting drastic change are going to be disappointed. Starmer's government will be subject to many of the same financial and international problems that have caused problems for this government.
As the so-called 'nationalisation' of the railways shows; the change might be one of terminology only, rather than the drastic change many were calling for. And may not improve things anyway.
On the other hand, a little competence would be a pleasant change...
Jury is still out on that one, we will see if the gloves come off once they have won. More likely to just be a different set of dross.
I'll be happy if they go for what works over ideology...
I know this may not affect the majority of you on here but one of the biggest problems with January is the long haul from pre-Christmas pay day through to the end of January.
2025 is as bad as it gets with Friday 31st January the normal pay day: that’s AFTER the election has to be held.
December payday is traditionally before Dec 25th and as Christmas and New Year are the big spends, you’d be getting the electorate to the polling stations when they’re living on fumes.
It would be political suicide.
Good morning everybody; I expect they’ll be some sore heads in political circles this morning. Whether that be from celebrating or trying to block out the memory!
While I think Heathener makes a good point about payday, I have long been of the opinion that the Prime Minister assumes something will turn up, and will therefore wait until he’s completely run out of road!
Give Rishi Sunak a week to think about it and think quite possible that he will say "What the hell - July it is."
The change this country needs and wants is coming.
I fear that those expecting drastic change are going to be disappointed. Starmer's government will be subject to many of the same financial and international problems that have caused problems for this government.
As the so-called 'nationalisation' of the railways shows; the change might be one of terminology only, rather than the drastic change many were calling for. And may not improve things anyway.
On the other hand, a little competence would be a pleasant change...
Jury is still out on that one, we will see if the gloves come off once they have won. More likely to just be a different set of dross.
I'll be happy if they go for what works over ideology...
Would be a welcome change, but excuse me being just a tad cynical.
The change this country needs and wants is coming.
I fear that those expecting drastic change are going to be disappointed. Starmer's government will be subject to many of the same financial and international problems that have caused problems for this government.
As the so-called 'nationalisation' of the railways shows; the change might be one of terminology only, rather than the drastic change many were calling for. And may not improve things anyway.
On the other hand, a little competence would be a pleasant change...
Labour have promised to introduce free breakfast clubs in every primary school in England!
The change this country needs and wants is coming.
I fear that those expecting drastic change are going to be disappointed. Starmer's government will be subject to many of the same financial and international problems that have caused problems for this government.
As the so-called 'nationalisation' of the railways shows; the change might be one of terminology only, rather than the drastic change many were calling for. And may not improve things anyway.
On the other hand, a little competence would be a pleasant change...
Jury is still out on that one, we will see if the gloves come off once they have won. More likely to just be a different set of dross.
I'll be happy if they go for what works over ideology...
Would be a welcome change, but excuse me being just a tad cynical.
It's true that ULEZ stopped some people voting for Khan. That LTNs and 20mph limits piss some drivers off to the extent they will vote Conservative.
But far more people enjoy having cleaner air. Or don't like drivers ratrunning through their neighbourhoods, or want to let their kids walk or cycle to school without fear of them being knocked over.
The Uxbridge strategy is a minority strategy for a minority party.
His support increased.
Susan Hall said this election was a referendum on ULEZ. Since Khan has won, like Brexit I think we can call that issue completely settled.
That doesn't mean that some individual voters weren't put off by ULEZ. I reckon tens of thousands were.
Just that there were more people who didn't care or actually enjoy doing Parkrun without picking up lung cancer at the same time.
I must admit to being worried, when hearing reports that London could be very close, the Tories have dragged this country to the sewers, and when it comes to Khan, let's call it for what it is, racism, the main reason some people dislike Khan is the colour of his skin/religion. Sadiq Khan is the not the best thing since sliced bread, but is definitely an improvement on the previous London Mayor, and certainly doesn't deserve the vitriol thrown at him, imo, hope has beaten hate, long may it continue
Absolutely. And the dislike for Sunak is obviously racism. And since the Labour Party is planning on replacing the Indian man with a white, slightly chubby, slightly red faced man, they are literally the NSDAP.
Alternatively, the vast majority in this country don’t give a shit about straight/gay, sex and sun tan levels in their politicians.
The change this country needs and wants is coming.
Undoubtedly the country needs a change of government but the want part is a bit tricky really. A lot of folk are in the camp of just wanting shot of the current crew and so plumping for the other lot. I very much doubt that anyone can tell you a specific story about what Labour will do in power.
This is to me a big problem with modern politics that a kind of unspoken conspiracy exists between voters and their politicians. The politicians determine to not say what they intend to do in power and the voters determine to project all manner of utopian fantasy upon them.
I’ve no doubt that an incoming labour government will feel a blessed relief, especially as initially they will feel heaps more competent. However they will be beset by the same global circumstances and there’s a dearth of evidence that they have any answers let alone any that will work. The one policy Labour have successfully got across, rail nationalisation, is not going to work in the way most people are being allowed to if not encouraged to think. It certainly of itself won’t make railways cheaper and better run.
One thing that seems likely is that some of the vices of this government will eventually manifest in Labour. Starmer is going to be quite old as a newly appointed PM eventually there will be jostling for position to replace him, that will intensify when the next government hits the opinion squalls all govts face. Will a leader in his mid 60s still look as impressive in 3-4 years when things are less hopeful and Labour are suffering a mid term pendulum effect?
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I'm surprised that they didn't try to prosecute on "furious cycling" or whatever it's called. A legacy law from riding a horse recklessly.
Impossible to impose a speed limit as it would involve adding a speedometer to all push bikes, registration plates etc in line with North Korea.
But expect 8 months of the Tories making this a key campaign pledge, along with taxing oat milk and banning purple hair.
Analogously, nobody says you can't prosecute drunk drivers because it would involve adding a breathalyser to all cars. If you think you might be doing 20+ you can voluntarily put a GPS computer on your bike. And I would bet my house to a fiver that a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton already has one.
Not really an analogy though, is it?
Yes it is. The claim in both cases is "you can't prosecute me for exceeding limits of variables when I am not legally obliged to have the equipment needed to measure those variables."
Reasonable to not know how fast you are going on a bicycle. Unreasonable to not know that you drank alcohol before driving.
So not the same thing at all.
But I think it's OK to say speed limits apply to bicycles, it would only be enforced when someone causes an accident anyway.
I have a question. Is it better to rent a flat in London than buy one?
The flat would cost £350k to buy but the rental level is around £1300. Buying... mortgage interest/cost of capital would be £17,500 per year (at 5%). Renting... £1300 per month, so £15,600 per year.
Buying - you have to also pay service charges on a flat and are exposed to 'leasehold risk' in all its various forms. None of that applies when you are renting. Also when renting you can get the landlord to fix the appliances and deal with problems with the building.
This got me thinking. Is property in London massively overpriced and due a correction? My theory is that the market it still priced based on low interest rates that existed from around 2015-2021, indeed prices are basically frozen from this time. When interest rates were 2%, the mortgage interest/cost of capital for the property cited above would be £7000 per year and buying the flat would make sense. But not at 5%.
Who knows whether it will be 5% forever and if renting at end of day you have nothing. Unless the place burns down , if buying it will be worth at least what you put into it so you will have all your money back. Therefore looks like risking £2K to get minimum £15K a year , does not make renting look attractive to me.
I'd say it makes living in London at all look totally unattractive to me
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I'm surprised that they didn't try to prosecute on "furious cycling" or whatever it's called. A legacy law from riding a horse recklessly.
Impossible to impose a speed limit as it would involve adding a speedometer to all push bikes, registration plates etc in line with North Korea.
But expect 8 months of the Tories making this a key campaign pledge, along with taxing oat milk and banning purple hair.
Analogously, nobody says you can't prosecute drunk drivers because it would involve adding a breathalyser to all cars. If you think you might be doing 20+ you can voluntarily put a GPS computer on your bike. And I would bet my house to a fiver that a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton already has one.
Not really an analogy though, is it?
Yes it is. The claim in both cases is "you can't prosecute me for exceeding limits of variables when I am not legally obliged to have the equipment needed to measure those variables."
Reasonable to not know how fast you are going on a bicycle. Unreasonable to not know that you drank alcohol before driving.
So not the same thing at all.
But I think it's OK to say speed limits apply to bicycles, it would only be enforced when someone causes an accident anyway.
An elderly lady of my acquaintance was driving safely along the road past the local Conservative club, when somebody drove his mobility scooter straight out of the car park of the club and into the side of her car. The police breathalysed her, but not the driver of the scooter!
The change this country needs and wants is coming.
I fear that those expecting drastic change are going to be disappointed. Starmer's government will be subject to many of the same financial and international problems that have caused problems for this government.
As the so-called 'nationalisation' of the railways shows; the change might be one of terminology only, rather than the drastic change many were calling for. And may not improve things anyway.
On the other hand, a little competence would be a pleasant change...
Labour have promised to introduce free breakfast clubs in every primary school in England!
Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 57m January election remains underpriced
I bet on that yesterday, and December.
I think September underpriced. I don't think Sunak fancies conference season.
Yes I don’t know how to second guess the timing so I’m not in on this market yet.
January feels like utter lunacy and might lead to a Canadageddon.
December would be tricky. I know it happened last time but that had a specific set of justifications which don’t really pertain this time.
We’re too late for May and (I think) June. So that leaves 5 options: July through November.
The problem from a betting POV is that we’re dealing with a volatile Party, in febrile mood. I have no way of applying my head over heart metric to this one at the moment. Almost anything could happen with the current Conservative Party.
The only sure bet is that they’re going to lose.
Latest parliament can dissolve is 17 December 2024, and then polling day will be Tuesday 28 January 2025. You'd have a v. soft campaign over the week before Christmas, and it wouldn't really heat up until Boxing Day. It could work, although the January payday point is a good one. I wouldn't recommend it but it's possible.
The point on "go now because otherwise it will be even worse" is almost always made by political opponents desperate to get into office trying to goad the Government into dissolving early so they get in early. There's no reason the Government should play that game; there's plenty on the upside that might work out for them.
Rwanda and the Summer boat crossings is probably the biggest political risk, and after that the performance of the NHS through another Winter. But, it's possible the former 'works' and a big cash injection is delivered on the latter, as the economy recovers, and that strengthens Sunak's GE defensive strategy.
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I'm surprised that they didn't try to prosecute on "furious cycling" or whatever it's called. A legacy law from riding a horse recklessly.
Impossible to impose a speed limit as it would involve adding a speedometer to all push bikes, registration plates etc in line with North Korea.
But expect 8 months of the Tories making this a key campaign pledge, along with taxing oat milk and banning purple hair.
Analogously, nobody says you can't prosecute drunk drivers because it would involve adding a breathalyser to all cars. If you think you might be doing 20+ you can voluntarily put a GPS computer on your bike. And I would bet my house to a fiver that a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton already has one.
Not really an analogy though, is it?
Yes it is. The claim in both cases is "you can't prosecute me for exceeding limits of variables when I am not legally obliged to have the equipment needed to measure those variables."
Reasonable to not know how fast you are going on a bicycle. Unreasonable to not know that you drank alcohol before driving.
So not the same thing at all.
But I think it's OK to say speed limits apply to bicycles, it would only be enforced when someone causes an accident anyway.
Do you live elsewhere than England and Wales? Because here you can drink some alcohol and drive.
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I was very nearly knocked over yesterday by a twat on a Surron doing estimated 35mph on the pavement while on his phone. If I hadn't jumped there's a very good chance I'd have been killed.
He's been riding around a lot recently at high speed including on the paths, through the parks and on the wrong side of the road.
But the police do not care. They're spooked by what happened in Cardiff where the parents of those two tossers blamed the police for their deaths while riding like lunatics.
Hopefully when he crashes he will kill himself rather than somebody else.
But certainly cracking down on inconsiderate and dangerous cyclists and e-bikes including that idiot Drakeford to fuck off when he supports them (a compelling sign he doesn't really give a shit about dangerous driving despite his 20mph nonsense) would be a good start by any government. They're not a pest, they're a real menace.
Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 57m January election remains underpriced
I bet on that yesterday, and December.
I think September underpriced. I don't think Sunak fancies conference season.
That's one month I'm very confident won't happen.
It'd mean a campaign right in the middle of the summer holidays, when everyone is away.
That’s a very good call and with OKC’s additional point about over 65’s holidaying. Also I think he’d pretty much have to call it before the recess and certainly before they all do any further prep for conferences? Cancelling conferences just a few weeks before they’re due to take place isn’t likely.
So logically you’d think it would be one of October, November, or December.
Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 57m January election remains underpriced
I bet on that yesterday, and December.
I think September underpriced. I don't think Sunak fancies conference season.
That's one month I'm very confident won't happen.
It'd mean a campaign right in the middle of the summer holidays, when everyone is away.
Though Pedro Sanchez got away with that in Spain.
More seriously, if we run the World War One railway timetables over this...
Dissolution this Wednesday gives polling on June 13.
If Sunak wants an election before the summer, his last chance is dissolution May 22, polling June 27. After that, some places (Scotland and, I think, somewhere in the midlands) have earlier school holidays than the rest of us.
Next available date avoiding the summer is dissolution September 5, voting October 10.
All this assumes that there's minimal washup needed in parliament. But given how... washed up... the government is, that might not be a problem.
I'm still expecting December 19. Last available not-utterly-kamikaze date.
Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 57m January election remains underpriced
I bet on that yesterday, and December.
I think September underpriced. I don't think Sunak fancies conference season.
That's one month I'm very confident won't happen.
It'd mean a campaign right in the middle of the summer holidays, when everyone is away.
Though Pedro Sanchez got away with that in Spain.
More seriously, if we run the World War One railway timetables over this...
Dissolution this Wednesday gives polling on June 13.
If Sunak wants an election before the summer, his last chance is dissolution May 22, polling June 27. After that, some places (Scotland and, I think, somewhere in the midlands) have earlier school holidays than the rest of us.
Next available date avoiding the summer is dissolution September 5, voting October 10.
All this assumes that there's minimal washup needed in parliament. But given how... washed up... the government is, that might not be a problem.
I'm still expecting December 19. Last available not-utterly-kamikaze date.
Scotland, Leicestershire, Northern Ireland all have different holiday patterns from the rest of England and Wales.
Whether Sunak gets that is another question. The DfE don't, for example.
From my very sparse look into PB over the last two days it seems the pollsters got it pretty near spot on while several PB posters-the noisy ones -got it miles out.
There used to be four or five- David Hurdson for example and a few who are now banned who knew their subject and supplied genuine insight-but they've been replaced by those 'inebriated by the exuberance of their own verbosity' who are just stocking fillers
Actually, YouGov was way off.
And while claims that the results point to NOM are nonsense, they don’t point to Labour getting 500 seats either. Looks like a substantial majority - 50-100.
As to banned posters, thats not the issue. Apart from Rod Crosby, the very small number of people who’ve been banned were/are not political experts.
Weird rumours/panics on PB about election results, during the count, have happened many times.
Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 57m January election remains underpriced
I bet on that yesterday, and December.
I think September underpriced. I don't think Sunak fancies conference season.
That's one month I'm very confident won't happen.
It'd mean a campaign right in the middle of the summer holidays, when everyone is away.
Though Pedro Sanchez got away with that in Spain.
More seriously, if we run the World War One railway timetables over this...
Dissolution this Wednesday gives polling on June 13.
If Sunak wants an election before the summer, his last chance is dissolution May 22, polling June 27. After that, some places (Scotland and, I think, somewhere in the midlands) have earlier school holidays than the rest of us.
Next available date avoiding the summer is dissolution September 5, voting October 10.
All this assumes that there's minimal washup needed in parliament. But given how... washed up... the government is, that might not be a problem.
I'm still expecting December 19. Last available not-utterly-kamikaze date.
I guess he'd announce it at the Tory party conference which finishes October 2nd. Can he hold out that long though?
Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 57m January election remains underpriced
I bet on that yesterday, and December.
I think September underpriced. I don't think Sunak fancies conference season.
That's one month I'm very confident won't happen.
It'd mean a campaign right in the middle of the summer holidays, when everyone is away.
Since when was September (and an election in the conference season would be later in that month) “in the middle” of the summer holidays?
There’s a reason that political and union and many trade conferences are held in September….
I think September is likely; the problem with it is not September but August. The dissolution has to occur during recess and holiday season. IMHO what might happen is this: An early announcement of the September date (July), washing up before recess, dissolution in late August. Parties all decide for themselves when the campaign really begins.
This avoids a disastrous Tory conference, avoids the Trump taint and has a surprise factor.
Also pro this is that I win an unlikely point in the new year prediction game. Bonus point if there is NOM.
Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 57m January election remains underpriced
I bet on that yesterday, and December.
I think September underpriced. I don't think Sunak fancies conference season.
That's one month I'm very confident won't happen.
It'd mean a campaign right in the middle of the summer holidays, when everyone is away.
Looking at the 20th Century, elections mainly seemed to happen in May/June or October/November with the odd few in the Dec-Jan period and a one in each of March April and July. My guess is that Oct/Nov is what he is looking at. He isn’t going to push it until Jan for various reasons. The only remaining question is does the election necessitate cancellation of conference season. If he’s wise he will because by then the election will be imminent and the last thing anyone in his position should want is a week of reporting about the lunatics ranting on the fringe, post election jostling for position plus the possibility of a PR disaster like occurred to Mrs May when her backdrop fell apart in a visual metaphor.
I know this may not affect the majority of you on here but one of the biggest problems with January is the long haul from pre-Christmas pay day through to the end of January.
2025 is as bad as it gets with Friday 31st January the normal pay day: that’s AFTER the election has to be held.
December payday is traditionally before Dec 25th and as Christmas and New Year are the big spends, you’d be getting the electorate to the polling stations when they’re living on fumes.
It would be political suicide.
Funnily enough, my employer has realised this can be an issue, and from next year will make January payday earlier.
The change this country needs and wants is coming.
I fear that those expecting drastic change are going to be disappointed. Starmer's government will be subject to many of the same financial and international problems that have caused problems for this government.
As the so-called 'nationalisation' of the railways shows; the change might be one of terminology only, rather than the drastic change many were calling for. And may not improve things anyway.
On the other hand, a little competence would be a pleasant change...
Jury is still out on that one, we will see if the gloves come off once they have won. More likely to just be a different set of dross.
I'll be happy if they go for what works over ideology...
Would be a welcome change, but excuse me being just a tad cynical.
Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 57m January election remains underpriced
I bet on that yesterday, and December.
I think September underpriced. I don't think Sunak fancies conference season.
That's one month I'm very confident won't happen.
It'd mean a campaign right in the middle of the summer holidays, when everyone is away.
Since when was September (and an election in the conference season would be later in that month) “in the middle” of the summer holidays?
There’s a reason that political and union and many trade conferences are held in September….
I think September is likely; the problem with it is not September but August. The dissolution has to occur during recess and holiday season. IMHO what might happen is this: An early announcement of the September date (July), washing up before recess, dissolution in late August. Parties all decide for themselves when the campaign really begins.
This avoids a disastrous Tory conference, avoids the Trump taint and has a surprise factor.
Also pro this is that I win an unlikely point in the new year prediction game. Bonus point if there is NOM.
July is the next most likely month.
September, as @OldKingCole has pointed out, is when oldies take their holidays (because it's cheaper and less crowded). July is when independent school parents take their holidays and also parents in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Also Leicestershire, although that's less significant politically.
So both would be damnfool times to have an election.
This does not mean Sunak will not do it. He cut back HS2 and threw away Birmingham as a result. Judgement is not one of his strengths.
And since they wouldn’t want to let the cat out the bag they would have to cancel conferences with about 4 or 5 weeks to go. That’s not going to go down well in those constituencies (Birmingham in the case of the Cons).
I think Casino Royale has got this right. September is unlikely unless of course they call it soon and have a mega long campaign through the summer?
Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 57m January election remains underpriced
I bet on that yesterday, and December.
I think September underpriced. I don't think Sunak fancies conference season.
Yes I don’t know how to second guess the timing so I’m not in on this market yet.
January feels like utter lunacy and might lead to a Canadageddon.
December would be tricky. I know it happened last time but that had a specific set of justifications which don’t really pertain this time.
We’re too late for May and (I think) June. So that leaves 5 options: July through November.
The problem from a betting POV is that we’re dealing with a volatile Party, in febrile mood. I have no way of applying my head over heart metric to this one at the moment. Almost anything could happen with the current Conservative Party.
The only sure bet is that they’re going to lose.
Latest parliament can dissolve is 17 December 2024, and then polling day will be Tuesday 28 January 2025. You'd have a v. soft campaign over the week before Christmas, and it wouldn't really heat up until Boxing Day. It could work, although the January payday point is a good one. I wouldn't recommend it but it's possible.
The point on "go now because otherwise it will be even worse" is almost always made by political opponents desperate to get into office trying to goad the Government into dissolving early so they get in early. There's no reason the Government should play that game; there's plenty on the upside that might work out for them.
Rwanda and the Summer boat crossings is probably the biggest political risk, and after that the performance of the NHS through another Winter. But, it's possible the former 'works' and a big cash injection is delivered on the latter, as the economy recovers, and that strengthens Sunak's GE defensive strategy.
I thought it traditional that elections take place on a Thursday which gives us the 23rd January. If he hangs on until the following Tuesday he really is desperate for his black swan event.
But maybe you are right and 9 more months of performative cruelty will swing the dial. I am not sure Sunak pulls of "nasty" to electoral benefit in the way a real piece of work like Braverman or Jenrick would. He's just not convincing.
Glen O'Hara @gsoh31 · 1h The Tories' fate has long been sealed, but they made it far, far worse when they went down the National Populist road. People just want to sign up with a dentist, phone a GP, get a bus on time. Simple things.
Like I've said before, Rishi started off quite well and I think he could have taken the Tories to a very respectable defeat but the turning point was when they held on to Uxbridge and I think he thought that by going down the Populist route/taxing to the right, he might be able to actually win the election.
It was terrible miscalculation, although also a very human one. I can understand no one wants to be the leader that's holding the baton when the party gets turfed out of office, but by trying to force things rather than accepting the inevitable graciously, he has made things much worse they needed to be.
Yes, making London’s air quality worse isn’t a great retail offer to the capital’s public. Khan has shown leadership on the environment, and he’s won a landslide.
I thought he'd been broadly in line or a little worse than UK polling average. But then I suppose that is a landslide!
I'd like to know the real rights and wrongs of air quality. I am pretty much convinced that ULEZ has nothing to do with air quality, it's about revenue generation, with a side order of the eventual destination of only rich people being able to drive their own vehicle. That's a horribly regressive idea that I think (eventually) left wing people will be quite ashamed of having being co-opted into.
One of the great merits of PB btl is that as we slug it out in debate, we eventually get a pretty good picture of the facts. I've presented some evidence that actually tyre particulates are worse than exhaust particulates. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/03/car-tyres-produce-more-particle-pollution-than-exhausts-tests-show Someone else made the point that tyre particulates are bigger, so have more of a tendency to drop harmlessly on to the road without being inhaled. It would be interesting if this person can subtantiate this thought.
I know this may not affect the majority of you on here but one of the biggest problems with January is the long haul from pre-Christmas pay day through to the end of January.
2025 is as bad as it gets with Friday 31st January the normal pay day: that’s AFTER the election has to be held.
December payday is traditionally before Dec 25th and as Christmas and New Year are the big spends, you’d be getting the electorate to the polling stations when they’re living on fumes.
It would be political suicide.
Funnily enough, my employer has realised this can be an issue, and from next year will make January payday earlier.
Perhaps they are in a plot with Sunak?
If Boris was in charge he might declare election day and the rest of the week as bank holidays, hold it on Jan 28th and thus force pay day before the election
Actually, it’s one thing he got right: for some reason he did know what mattered to people
Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall · 57m January election remains underpriced
I bet on that yesterday, and December.
I think September underpriced. I don't think Sunak fancies conference season.
That's one month I'm very confident won't happen.
It'd mean a campaign right in the middle of the summer holidays, when everyone is away.
Since when was September (and an election in the conference season would be later in that month) “in the middle” of the summer holidays?
There’s a reason that political and union and many trade conferences are held in September….
I think September is likely; the problem with it is not September but August. The dissolution has to occur during recess and holiday season. IMHO what might happen is this: An early announcement of the September date (July), washing up before recess, dissolution in late August. Parties all decide for themselves when the campaign really begins.
This avoids a disastrous Tory conference, avoids the Trump taint and has a surprise factor.
Also pro this is that I win an unlikely point in the new year prediction game. Bonus point if there is NOM.
July is the next most likely month.
September, as @OldKingCole has pointed out, is when oldies take their holidays (because it's cheaper and less crowded). July is when independent school parents take their holidays and also parents in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Also Leicestershire, although that's less significant politically.
So both would be damnfool times to have an election.
This does not mean Sunak will not do it. He cut back HS2 and threw away Birmingham as a result. Judgement is not one of his strengths.
I can't see that cancelling the northern legs of HS2 damaged the Tories in the West Midlands. They still get their fast trains to That London, and I can't see them being fussed about no fast train to Manchester or Leeds.
Comments
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/04/cyclist-escapes-prosecution-after-fatal-collision-with-pens/
"A speeding cyclist involved in a fatal collision with a pensioner could not be prosecuted because speed limits do not apply to bicycles, a court heard.
Brian Fitzgerald, a director at Credit Suisse, was in a “fast group” of cyclists doing timed laps of Regent’s Park in London when Hilda Griffiths, 81, crossed the road they were on to try to reach a pedestrian island.
Despite a 20mph speed limit, Mr Fitzgerald, a member of the Muswell Hill Peloton cycling club, told a coroner they were travelling at up to 29 mph in aerodynamic “pace line” formation to maximise momentum when he struck the retired nursery teacher walking her dog.
He said he had “zero-reaction time”, adding how cyclists are not required to obey 20mph signs because “the legal speed limit doesn’t apply to cyclists [the same] as motorists”."
I find it quite easy to break the new 20MPH limit in the village on my new bike. I try not to, though.
As an aside, it would be interesting to know if he was in the lead in the pace formation, or one of the ones behind the leader. either way, it sounds an idiotic thing to do on that sort of road.
Impossible to impose a speed limit as it would involve adding a speedometer to all push bikes, registration plates etc in line with North Korea.
But expect 8 months of the Tories making this a key campaign pledge, along with taxing oat milk and banning purple hair.
https://twitter.com/transportgovuk/status/1786331189294317699?t=2n07aHShAnflhDywRCcMsQ&s=19
But do you realise your attitude kinda stinks? Cyclists are not always the victim, as this case shows.
*If* I get into cycling more regularly, I might get a dedicated computer. Would you recommend a Wahoo model? I'm currently a Garmin man with watches and the like.
It is equally possible that Voter ID stopped people voting for Street.
The mayoral elections demonstrated that there is a way to win for a Conservative. This is to make out that you have nothing to do with the Tories. He ran, not as a Tory, but as “Ben”. His campaign literature treated the prime minister as a non-person and he even “forgot” to wear a blue rosette at his count.
… the prime minister’s residual allies and apologists… have been trying to tranquillise the herd with the argument that a coup attempt would be utter madness whether it failed or succeeded. It is not that they disagree that Tory prospects look dire. What they fear is that a bid to depose Mr Sunak would make their party look even more absurd than it does already.
In the immediate wake of Friday’s results, some of the insurrectionists sounded like they were giving up, and loyalist ministers started to declare that the prime minister was safe in his job, at least until the voters get their hands on him. But that was before Saturday brought the Tory-deflating result from London and the Tory-stunning outcome in the West Midlands. The heaviest blow…was Andy Street… being defeated in an area packed with swing parliamentary seats. He’d fought his contest not as a Tory, but as “Andy”. His campaign material was in a non-Conservative livery of green and purple. In his case, the distancing trick was not enough to spare him from his party’s national unpopularity.
The fundamental vulnerability of the prime minister is that he got the job on the promise to his party that he could turn around their fortunes, and has instead led them to even lower nadirs. Projecting himself as the man to fix the howling mess he inherited has always invited the question: which party created the howling mess in the first place? He asked to be judged on economic growth (which is anaemic), NHS waiting lists (which are enormous), and stopping the boats (which are still coming).
One handicap for the plotters is that they are no less implicated in years of failure and strife than anyone else in the Conservative party. Another is persuading colleagues that their scheme would not leave the Tories in an even deeper hole than the one they are already stuck down. Rightwing “red meat” is not in short supply from Mr Sunak. The trouble for the Tories is that even rightwing voters aren’t finding it appetising while centrist ones are repelled.
One reason his allies nevertheless think it likely he will survive is that the insurrectionists have never had a coherent plan for what would happen the day after a coup. There is no miracle worker ready to swoop in with a magic formula to save the Conservative party. Even if he survives the manoeuvres of those in his party who want rid of him, the verdict he will not be able to evade for all that much longer is that of the country. Pretending not to be a Tory won’t be an option at the general election.
The UK is a trading nation, and being locked out from the EU has already severely damaged our GDP capacity and forced the sale of discounted UK companies into foreign ownership. Now, the only thing masking a collapse in productivity and the large equity discount is large scale immigration which flatters our GDP numbers. So make your mind up: closer integration into the EU, large scale immigration or years of negative GDP and the wholesale takeover of UK business. What are you going to choose?
The change this country needs and wants is coming.
As the so-called 'nationalisation' of the railways shows; the change might be one of terminology only, rather than the drastic change many were calling for. And may not improve things anyway.
On the other hand, a little competence would be a pleasant change...
It's one of their 10 Labour policies to change Britain
https://labour.org.uk/updates/stories/10-labour-policies-to-change-britain/
(I am not saying I'm perfect: I walk, run, cycle and drive; and I occasionally make mistakes when walking, running, cycling and driving. I do try to learn from those mistakes, though. The other day I put myself into a silly position at a slow-speed junction when cycling; fortunately the other driver saw my mistake and allowed me out. My mistake.)
Starmer’s Labour will radically change this country, socially as much as economically.
And I suspect it will be a long-term project. The tories won’t heed Andy Street’s warning. They will lurch to the right and down the rabbit hole before (presumably) they eventually come back. The ongoing anti-woke culture wars and nasty policies, still parroted on here, tell me that they are utterly out of touch with the country’s mood.
I’m afraid those on the Right telling themselves that a) nothing will change or b) it will all go pear-shaped are sitting in a locked windowless room talking to themselves, whilst the rest of the country begins to breathe new life again.
F1: markets not fully up, which is a bit slack. Will check again down the line...
You could however effectively cover the possibility by backing Con seats below 50, or percentage vote share below 20, since both would be near certainties if if he is so minded.
January feels like utter lunacy and might lead to a Canadageddon.
December would be tricky. I know it happened last time but that had a specific set of justifications which don’t really pertain this time.
We’re too late for May and (I think) June. So that leaves 5 options: July through November.
The problem from a betting POV is that we’re dealing with a volatile Party, in febrile mood. I have no way of applying my head over heart metric to this one at the moment. Almost anything could happen with the current Conservative Party.
The only sure bet is that they’re going to lose.
Otherwise it’s political suicide for the Party if Sunak holds until the bitter January end - through Christmas, New Year, in the Longest Month when no one has any money? Would be lunacy.
One where Rwanda like Suez becomes just an ugly blot on the country's history.
2025 is as bad as it gets with Friday 31st January the normal pay day: that’s AFTER the election has to be held.
December payday is traditionally before Dec 25th and as Christmas and New Year are the big spends, you’d be getting the electorate to the polling stations when they’re living on fumes.
It would be political suicide.
While I think Heathener makes a good point about payday, I have long been of the opinion that the Prime Minister assumes something will turn up, and will therefore wait until he’s completely run out of road!
https://www.statista.com/statistics/632599/smartphone-market-share-by-vendor-in-europe/
More likely to just be a different set of dross.
Alternatively, the vast majority in this country don’t give a shit about straight/gay, sex and sun tan levels in their politicians.
It'd mean a campaign right in the middle of the summer holidays, when everyone is away.
This is to me a big problem with modern politics that a kind of unspoken conspiracy exists between voters and their politicians. The politicians determine to not say what they intend to do in power and the voters determine to project all manner of utopian fantasy upon them.
I’ve no doubt that an incoming labour government will feel a blessed relief, especially as initially they will feel heaps more competent. However they will be beset by the same global circumstances and there’s a dearth of evidence that they have any answers let alone any that will work. The one policy Labour have successfully got across, rail nationalisation, is not going to work in the way most people are being allowed to if not encouraged to think. It certainly of itself won’t make railways cheaper and better run.
One thing that seems likely is that some of the vices of this government will eventually manifest in Labour. Starmer is going to be quite old as a newly appointed PM eventually there will be jostling for position to replace him, that will intensify when the next government hits the opinion squalls all govts face. Will a leader in his mid 60s still look as impressive in 3-4 years when things are less hopeful and Labour are suffering a mid term pendulum effect?
Unreasonable to not know that you drank alcohol before driving.
So not the same thing at all.
But I think it's OK to say speed limits apply to bicycles, it would only be enforced when someone causes an accident anyway.
Enjoy it, whilst it lasts.
I'd say it makes living in London at all look totally unattractive to me
The police breathalysed her, but not the driver of the scooter!
Has Rawnsley forgotten……. TRUSS!
The point on "go now because otherwise it will be even worse" is almost always made by political opponents desperate to get into office trying to goad the Government into dissolving early so they get in early. There's no reason the Government should play that game; there's plenty on the upside that might work out for them.
Rwanda and the Summer boat crossings is probably the biggest political risk, and after that the performance of the NHS through another Winter. But, it's possible the former 'works' and a big cash injection is delivered on the latter, as the economy recovers, and that strengthens Sunak's GE defensive strategy.
He's been riding around a lot recently at high speed including on the paths, through the parks and on the wrong side of the road.
But the police do not care. They're spooked by what happened in Cardiff where the parents of those two tossers blamed the police for their deaths while riding like lunatics.
Hopefully when he crashes he will kill himself rather than somebody else.
But certainly cracking down on inconsiderate and dangerous cyclists and e-bikes including that idiot Drakeford to fuck off when he supports them (a compelling sign he doesn't really give a shit about dangerous driving despite his 20mph nonsense) would be a good start by any government. They're not a pest, they're a real menace.
There’s a reason that political and union and many trade conferences are held in September….
So logically you’d think it would be one of October, November, or December.
Unless he goes for it now. Or they change leader.
More seriously, if we run the World War One railway timetables over this...
Dissolution this Wednesday gives polling on June 13.
If Sunak wants an election before the summer, his last chance is dissolution May 22, polling June 27. After that, some places (Scotland and, I think, somewhere in the midlands) have earlier school holidays than the rest of us.
Next available date avoiding the summer is dissolution September 5, voting October 10.
All this assumes that there's minimal washup needed in parliament. But given how... washed up... the government is, that might not be a problem.
I'm still expecting December 19. Last available not-utterly-kamikaze date.
Whether Sunak gets that is another question. The DfE don't, for example.
And while claims that the results point to NOM are nonsense, they don’t point to Labour getting 500 seats either. Looks like a substantial majority - 50-100.
As to banned posters, thats not the issue. Apart from Rod Crosby, the very small number of people who’ve been banned were/are not political experts.
Weird rumours/panics on PB about election results, during the count, have happened many times.
You'd have to call that election between 30th July and 21st August, which is right in the middle of the school holidays:
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9921/
This avoids a disastrous Tory conference, avoids the Trump taint and has a surprise factor.
Also pro this is that I win an unlikely point in the new year prediction game. Bonus point if there is NOM.
July is the next most likely month.
Perhaps they are in a plot with Sunak?
So both would be damnfool times to have an election.
This does not mean Sunak will not do it. He cut back HS2 and threw away Birmingham as a result. Judgement is not one of his strengths.
I think Casino Royale has got this right. September is unlikely unless of course they call it soon and have a mega long campaign through the summer?
But maybe you are right and 9 more months of performative cruelty will swing the dial. I am not sure Sunak pulls of "nasty" to electoral benefit in the way a real piece of work like Braverman or Jenrick would. He's just not convincing.
Probably will be triggered by some random news story causing a temporary blip in the polls.
I'd like to know the real rights and wrongs of air quality. I am pretty much convinced that ULEZ has nothing to do with air quality, it's about revenue generation, with a side order of the eventual destination of only rich people being able to drive their own vehicle. That's a horribly regressive idea that I think (eventually) left wing people will be quite ashamed of having being co-opted into.
One of the great merits of PB btl is that as we slug it out in debate, we eventually get a pretty good picture of the facts. I've presented some evidence that actually tyre particulates are worse than exhaust particulates.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/03/car-tyres-produce-more-particle-pollution-than-exhausts-tests-show
Someone else made the point that tyre particulates are bigger, so have more of a tendency to drop harmlessly on to the road without being inhaled. It would be interesting if this person can subtantiate this thought.
Actually, it’s one thing he got right: for some reason he did know what mattered to people
Heated political argument on PB this morning, with insults flying left and right about ... USB-C connectors.
Whatever the technicalities, the nature and form of the prejudice is so very similar to that based on skin colour.