The strategist would say that Israel has finally overplayed their hand.
The cynic would note that in at least 1 swing state Biden urgently needs the Arab vote back. Michigan is in play.
The Arab vote is being overplayed by the media . The bigger impact is on younger and more progressive voters . Regardless this is the biggest ever rift in USA and Israeli relations .
Blackpool has high disaffection with politics, very low turnout vs the national average and a whacking great 50% Tory vote to target. Reform need to focus on converting the stay at home/Fed up with Con/MyMP was a bad'un electorate into protest voters. Labour will win but its the sort of place they will win on pitiful turnout and with a lower vote total than they got in 2019 I think
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
If I were you, I would put up with Colombia for a few more days. The weather’s forecast to be shite again this week. Or are you missing the Groucho Club?
OK I’m fucking bored of Colombia now. Insects, heat, sun, insects, weird stodgy pancakes, Stone Age people, coconuts, mad driving, I GET IT
San Andres & Providencia?
NO! NON NON NON. NYET
I’ve had non stop blue skies and tropical heat for three months, indeed five months if you discount a couple of weeks in London and Cornwall over Xmas
I am actually craving some cool overcast weather. Maybe a raincoat. Streets glistening with drizzle, streetlights reflected in puddles. Daffodils shaken by a chilly breeze, the timid buds of April
I predict this mood will last 3 days once I return to the UK, and I shall revert to loathing the cold British climate, and once again yearn pathetically for tropic sun
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
If I were you, I would put up with Colombia for a few more days. The weather’s forecast to be shite again this week. Or are you missing the Groucho Club?
The Groucho Club has probably done a lot for the Colombian economy over the years.
Reform also need to target the disengaged nationally but I'm turning up for my local council voters
the only election there is Police Commissioner - only the most political of political voters would be voting otherwise so the differential voting numbers in Blackpool south are going to have a significant impact say on the outcome there.
OK I’m fucking bored of Colombia now. Insects, heat, sun, insects, weird stodgy pancakes, Stone Age people, coconuts, mad driving, I GET IT
San Andres & Providencia?
NO! NON NON NON. NYET
I’ve had non stop blue skies and tropical heat for three months, indeed five months if you discount a couple of weeks in London and Cornwall over Xmas
I am actually craving some cool overcast weather. Maybe a raincoat. Streets glistening with drizzle, streetlights reflected in puddles. Daffodils shaken by a chilly breeze, the timid buds of April
I predict this mood will last 3 days once I return to the UK, and I shall revert to loathing the cold British climate, and once again yearn pathetically for tropic sun
A ripped nudey mag casually tossed aside in a puddle outside Liverpool Street Station now acting as a liferaft for half of an £8 sausage roll. You're missing nothing.
Reform also need to target the disengaged nationally but I'm turning up for my local council voters
the only election there is Police Commissioner - only the most political of political voters would be voting otherwise so the differential voting numbers in Blackpool south are going to have a significant impact say on the outcome there.
Oops my bad I thought there were council elections there too
OK I’m fucking bored of Colombia now. Insects, heat, sun, insects, weird stodgy pancakes, Stone Age people, coconuts, mad driving, I GET IT
San Andres & Providencia?
NO! NON NON NON. NYET
I’ve had non stop blue skies and tropical heat for three months, indeed five months if you discount a couple of weeks in London and Cornwall over Xmas
I am actually craving some cool overcast weather. Maybe a raincoat. Streets glistening with drizzle, streetlights reflected in puddles. Daffodils shaken by a chilly breeze, the timid buds of April
I predict this mood will last 3 days once I return to the UK, and I shall revert to loathing the cold British climate, and once again yearn pathetically for tropic sun
A ripped nudey mag casually tossed aside in a puddle outside Liverpool Street Station now acting as a liferaft for half of an £8 sausage roll. You're missing nothing.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
I'm in a tee shirt, I think I might have cranked up the heating a bit much, and I'm in the wilds of Norwich South
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Interesting article from Opinium's Adam Drummond on what the Conservatives can do to win back defectors to Reform.
Summary: they can't. Reform supporters hate the Tories and want things on eg Immigration that are impossible to deliver.
Loss to Reform isn't even the Conservatives biggest problem. They have lost a similar number to Labour whom they are not going to get back in at least the short term. Their best hope is keep some Don't Knows and hang on to maybe a bit over half their previous vote.
Should add ex Conservative Don't Knows tend to Cameronian rather than Faragist. Reform voters are emphatically the opposite.
There are extremely desperate contortions on the part of wet faction supporters within the Tories and Labour supporters terrified of losing Sunak that the Boris red wall coalition was a one-off, an aberration, unachievable again, requires 'undeliverable' policies. It's all a specious load of testicles on a plate aimed at saving Sunak's sorry hide.
Much as I dislike the fruitcake and proto fascist tendencies, if you want a coalition you need the various factions to make the numbers. Right now the Conservatives have already lost many of the fruitcakes and wets according to that article and are in extreme danger of losing the traditionalists as well.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
I know I haven’t been there, but has the UK experienced one good solid week of dry sunny weather since Jan 1 2024?
It’s been generally garbage ! It might be different for others but here in the se I’ve managed just two consecutive sunny dry days.
El nino and a very hot atlantic ocean has resulted in extremely hot and humid atmosphere. With this setup the jetstream has been in the worst possible position for much of the time. But I think we are heading for a nice summer
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
I know you’re scotch and you have exceptionally low standards but surely even in Scotland 1 hour of sun on a 10C maximum day otherwise dominated by cloud and cold rain does not constitute “a sunny day”. Does it?
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
I think when they put it on paper they will find the percentage dropping radically, the left will be disappointed as those still labour have convinced themselves Starmer is just keeping his powder dry, if however the manifesto is not too radical he will lose votes on the right too from those convinced he is just saying it to get elected then intends to be more radical in power due to all the more leftist comments saying "he needs to say this to get power....wait to see what he does when he gets in".
Note I am not a supporter of the conservatives here just saying what I think will happen
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
Not sure I agree with that.
Starmer and Reeves are the less worrying things about Labour; it reveals the depths of Tory woes that they are up against those two as the best of and they still going to get creamed.
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
I think she's their biggest asset. A Labour politician talking some degree of economic sense - it's not happened before.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The outlook is giving moo until the 5-6th of April.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The outlook is giving moo until the 5-6th of April.
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
I think she's their biggest asset. A Labour politician talking some degree of economic sense - it's not happened before.
I think she will end up being a concrete necklace for them, better that be after they get in than during the campaign.
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
I think she's their biggest asset. A Labour politician talking some degree of economic sense - it's not happened before.
According to the recent Lord Ashcroft poll she was one of only two leading pols to have a net positive rating with the great British public. The other was Penny Mordaunt who is surely a shoo-in for opposition leader (if she holds Portsmouth N).
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
I think she's their biggest asset. A Labour politician talking some degree of economic sense - it's not happened before.
I think she will end up being a concrete necklace for them, better that be after they get in than during the campaign.
Ironically while I think labour probably plans not to change things much if they get in to power, the more they say it I think the more on the right will get nervous due to most on the left seeming to think and commenting that they are just saying that to get power then can be radical after
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
I think she's their biggest asset. A Labour politician talking some degree of economic sense - it's not happened before.
According to the recent Lord Ashcroft poll she was one of only two leading pols to have a net positive rating with the great British public. The other was Penny Mordaunt who is surely a shoo-in for opposition leader (if she holds Portsmouth N).
Massive turn on her incoming as things do not do a D:Ream. Gravity always wins.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The outlook is giving moo until the 5-6th of April.
“One of the most hideously vile, tediously unvaried and unappealing months of all time [March 2024]. Absolutely nothing decent on offer. Barely any sun, no convection, hardly any warmth, a couple of frosts and no snow. Just perpetual grey skies with repulsively chilly days and disgusting mild nights. Yet again conditions worse than a bad November 🤮
Makes last March seem brilliant by comparison. I spent the end of that revolting month in London and the weather was so foul it beggared belief. Should be a long long time before anything as repellent as that would disgrace the final third of the month but I am off there again tomorrow and not only does it look every bit as rank as last year but if anything even worse. It would seem 6am on Saturday is the only time there will be any sun 🤬
The bare minimum you could expect was a couple of reasonable days in a week. Now it's just week after week of relentless cloud and rain. The UK climate truly has been relegated into the lowest tier of utter garbage alongside bleak sparsely populated outposts like the Faeroes, Falklands and Aleutians. A poisonous dump of a country unfit for human habitation 🤢
I have been looking in detail at the new Scottish Hate Crime Act. It is illiberal authoritarian nonsense at its worst, Scotland obviously aiming for some prize as the country bringing in more stupid legislation which then has to be reversed than any other country.
If @DavidL thinks that this will stop me saying anything about Scottish people he can think again. This is a law which deserves to be ridiculed into oblivion, a stake through its heart, never to be heard of again.
I was thinking of a header on it - and if @DavidL has to recuse himself - will see if I can come up with something. Though TBH there has been a lot of very good commentary on it already.
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
I think she's their biggest asset. A Labour politician talking some degree of economic sense - it's not happened before.
I think she will end up being a concrete necklace for them, better that be after they get in than during the campaign.
Entirely possible, and perhaps likely she finishes up as your concrete necklace (not heard that expression before).
Whilst Starmer is in control though I don't see it happening. When Starmer loses control then Labour spirals back to beardy wonderland, or whatever new nonsense they can cook up.
I have been looking in detail at the new Scottish Hate Crime Act. It is illiberal authoritarian nonsense at its worst, Scotland obviously aiming for some prize as the country bringingin more stupid legislation which then has to be reversed than any other country.
If @DavidL thinks that this will stop me saying anything about Scottish people he can think again. This is a law which deserves to be ridiculed into oblivion, a stake through its heart, never to be heard of again.
I was thinking of a header on it - and if @DavidL has to recuse himself - will see if I can come up with something. Though TBH there has been a lot of very good commentary on it already.
It is absurd that a small region of britain thinks it can override national laws and prosecute us for not breaking national law when we haven't set foot in their tiny fiefdom. I suspect legal challenges if they try. I mean does england even have an extradition treaty with scotland? Will we end up where a scottish court passes a jail sentence which is toothless unless we set foot in scotland?
I can't see being arrested in devon for breaking a law in scotland even if I have never been there flying.
I have been looking in detail at the new Scottish Hate Crime Act. It is illiberal authoritarian nonsense at its worst, Scotland obviously aiming for some prize as the country bringing in more stupid legislation which then has to be reversed than any other country.
If @DavidL thinks that this will stop me saying anything about Scottish people he can think again. This is a law which deserves to be ridiculed into oblivion, a stake through its heart, never to be heard of again.
I was thinking of a header on it - and if @DavidL has to recuse himself - will see if I can come up with something. Though TBH there has been a lot of very good commentary on it already.
Please do - I think is truly terrifying. (Dusts off 1984.)
I have been looking in detail at the new Scottish Hate Crime Act. It is illiberal authoritarian nonsense at its worst, Scotland obviously aiming for some prize as the country bringing in more stupid legislation which then has to be reversed than any other country.
If @DavidL thinks that this will stop me saying anything about Scottish people he can think again. This is a law which deserves to be ridiculed into oblivion, a stake through its heart, never to be heard of again.
I was thinking of a header on it - and if @DavidL has to recuse himself - will see if I can come up with something. Though TBH there has been a lot of very good commentary on it already.
I have been looking in detail at the new Scottish Hate Crime Act. It is illiberal authoritarian nonsense at its worst, Scotland obviously aiming for some prize as the country bringing in more stupid legislation which then has to be reversed than any other country.
If @DavidL thinks that this will stop me saying anything about Scottish people he can think again. This is a law which deserves to be ridiculed into oblivion, a stake through its heart, never to be heard of again.
I was thinking of a header on it - and if @DavidL has to recuse himself - will see if I can come up with something. Though TBH there has been a lot of very good commentary on it already.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The outlook is giving moo until the 5-6th of April.
“One of the most hideously vile, tediously unvaried and unappealing months of all time [March 2024]. Absolutely nothing decent on offer. Barely any sun, no convection, hardly any warmth, a couple of frosts and no snow. Just perpetual grey skies with repulsively chilly days and disgusting mild nights. Yet again conditions worse than a bad November 🤮
Makes last March seem brilliant by comparison. I spent the end of that revolting month in London and the weather was so foul it beggared belief. Should be a long long time before anything as repellent as that would disgrace the final third of the month but I am off there again tomorrow and not only does it look every bit as rank as last year but if anything even worse. It would seem 6am on Saturday is the only time there will be any sun 🤬
The bare minimum you could expect was a couple of reasonable days in a week. Now it's just week after week of relentless cloud and rain. The UK climate truly has been relegated into the lowest tier of utter garbage alongside bleak sparsely populated outposts like the Faeroes, Falklands and Aleutians. A poisonous dump of a country unfit for human habitation 🤢
Britain, the only country currently experiencing the tragic consequences of Global Shittening
Would I be right to assume that some PB punters aren't that well acquainted with Blackpool? I can see ReFUK doing really well.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
I predicted this this morning, the American legal system has a real problem with being nasty to rich white guys, but it is still a bitter disappointment.
Is it just to force someone to lodge $450m with the court in order to appeal? You could make the case that it is unfairly restricting Trump’s ability and right to appeal
Would I be right to assume that some PB punters aren't that well acquainted with Blackpool? I can see ReFUK doing really well.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Would I be right to assume that some PB punters aren't that well acquainted with Blackpool? I can see ReFUK doing really well.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Would I be right to assume that some PB punters aren't that well acquainted with Blackpool? I can see ReFUK doing really well.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
I’ve been to Blackpool once on the way to the Lake District . That was enough !
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
Disagree with that. She's a serious politician for serious times, not charismatic, but she knows her stuff. Her Mais Lecture last week was wide-ranging and pretty good - linked to again for anybody interested: https://labour.org.uk/updates/press-releases/rachel-reeves-mais-lecture/ I don't agree with all she says, but I think she'll be a net asset for Labour when the GE campaign launches.
Before going on to more important matters, if you want to moan about the weather, join me over on netweather where I post regular analysis of the forecast charts - it's a bit like polling the atmosphere.
The day time maximum for London in early April is 13c - we got to 12c today and we'll be below average to the weekend. If the low pressure ends up to the west we'll draw up some warmer air from the south which will kick off some hefty showers. Ideally, if it's to the south and it's a nice strong easterly up the river, we'll get a sinking in the Boat Race on Saturday.
Back to more important matters, the R&W data shows only 7% DK among men but 17% among women which may or may not be of significance. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 48% loyal, 23% Reform and 21% Labour. Once you strip out the DKs and weight on likelihood to vote, men have Labour ahead 39-25 while women have Labour ahead 47-18. Both groups have Reform on 14% so not sure how this ties in with other poll findings.
On to Deltapoll and men have Labour ahead 40-26 (Reform on 14) while with women it's 49-25 with Reform on just 7%. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 60% loyal, 17% Reform and 14% Labour which might explain the discrepency in the Conservative number between the two polls.
Among those aged over 65, a group which voted 64-17 in December 2019, Deltapoll have the Conservatives leading 40-30 with Reform on 14 which is a swing of 18.5% and R&W have Labour ahead 34-27 with Reform on 18 which would be a 28% swing.
My guess would be the highest Reform vote shares will be in Conservative held seats with a higher than average proportion of voters over 65.
Would be a good by election for the Tories to accidentally muck up their selection and not field a candidate
Definitely , the tories are going to lose all their red wall seats so its better they go to Reform than Labour
I suspect there will be a random hold or two in unlikely places. A lonely blue outpost in a sea of red
I, in my turn, suspect the only game in town will be lumping on Labour once the bookmakers suggest prices for the constituencies.
Likely very true, still think the odd hold against the head is possible though - Stockton West or Middlesborough East perhaps. They'd both hold on a 1997 level swing. I'll not be putting money on it though!
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
I’m off to Nashville and California on Wednesday if that helps?
I have been looking in detail at the new Scottish Hate Crime Act. It is illiberal authoritarian nonsense at its worst, Scotland obviously aiming for some prize as the country bringing in more stupid legislation which then has to be reversed than any other country.
If @DavidL thinks that this will stop me saying anything about Scottish people he can think again. This is a law which deserves to be ridiculed into oblivion, a stake through its heart, never to be heard of again.
I was thinking of a header on it - and if @DavidL has to recuse himself - will see if I can come up with something. Though TBH there has been a lot of very good commentary on it already.
shows the current FM is not up to it
Mind you, from a casual reading of it, the fun you could have by reporting your political opponents for heresy could make it quite exciting….
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The outlook is giving moo until the 5-6th of April.
“One of the most hideously vile, tediously unvaried and unappealing months of all time [March 2024]. Absolutely nothing decent on offer. Barely any sun, no convection, hardly any warmth, a couple of frosts and no snow. Just perpetual grey skies with repulsively chilly days and disgusting mild nights. Yet again conditions worse than a bad November 🤮
Makes last March seem brilliant by comparison. I spent the end of that revolting month in London and the weather was so foul it beggared belief. Should be a long long time before anything as repellent as that would disgrace the final third of the month but I am off there again tomorrow and not only does it look every bit as rank as last year but if anything even worse. It would seem 6am on Saturday is the only time there will be any sun 🤬
The bare minimum you could expect was a couple of reasonable days in a week. Now it's just week after week of relentless cloud and rain. The UK climate truly has been relegated into the lowest tier of utter garbage alongside bleak sparsely populated outposts like the Faeroes, Falklands and Aleutians. A poisonous dump of a country unfit for human habitation 🤢
Ah, you’ve discovered the poet laureate of weather misery richardabdn. A stalwart of TWO and like a meteorological cross between Pagan and Malcolm.
Would be a good by election for the Tories to accidentally muck up their selection and not field a candidate
Definitely , the tories are going to lose all their red wall seats so its better they go to Reform than Labour
I suspect there will be a random hold or two in unlikely places. A lonely blue outpost in a sea of red
I, in my turn, suspect the only game in town will be lumping on Labour once the bookmakers suggest prices for the constituencies.
Likely very true, still think the odd hold against the head is possible though - Stockton West or Middlesborough East perhaps. They'd both hold on a 1997 level swing. I'll not be putting money on it though!
Wheedling out the exceptionals is great fun. I don't know anything at all about either of those seats. In the past though I've made some small beer money in such places.
Would be a good by election for the Tories to accidentally muck up their selection and not field a candidate
Definitely , the tories are going to lose all their red wall seats so its better they go to Reform than Labour
I suspect there will be a random hold or two in unlikely places. A lonely blue outpost in a sea of red
I, in my turn, suspect the only game in town will be lumping on Labour once the bookmakers suggest prices for the constituencies.
Likely very true, still think the odd hold against the head is possible though - Stockton West or Middlesborough East perhaps. They'd both hold on a 1997 level swing. I'll not be putting money on it though!
Not on Teesside. The stench of death is amongst them. Ben Houchen keeps insisting that there is absolutely nothing wrong with all that public money going to his friends. Simon Ding Dong Clarke was the uber-Trussite. The rest of the 2019 Tories don't know what day it is - the smart one was Dehenna Davison and she's smart enough to know its time to go.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
I’m off to Nashville and California on Wednesday if that helps?
No. I’ll be stuck under that louring London sky
Fuck it. I’ll zip off to the canaries for a well earned break
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
I know you’re scotch and you have exceptionally low standards but surely even in Scotland 1 hour of sun on a 10C maximum day otherwise dominated by cloud and cold rain does not constitute “a sunny day”. Does it?
😶
A short flight and another couple of weeks and you could view the total solar eclipse - unless that’s old hat and I would then truly pity you.
I have been looking in detail at the new Scottish Hate Crime Act. It is illiberal authoritarian nonsense at its worst, Scotland obviously aiming for some prize as the country bringing in more stupid legislation which then has to be reversed than any other country.
If @DavidL thinks that this will stop me saying anything about Scottish people he can think again. This is a law which deserves to be ridiculed into oblivion, a stake through its heart, never to be heard of again.
I was thinking of a header on it - and if @DavidL has to recuse himself - will see if I can come up with something. Though TBH there has been a lot of very good commentary on it already.
shows the current FM is not up to it
Mind you, from a casual reading of it, the fun you could have by reporting your political opponents for heresy could make it quite exciting….
thought things have evolved over 500 year = appears not
Would be a good by election for the Tories to accidentally muck up their selection and not field a candidate
Definitely , the tories are going to lose all their red wall seats so its better they go to Reform than Labour
I suspect there will be a random hold or two in unlikely places. A lonely blue outpost in a sea of red
I, in my turn, suspect the only game in town will be lumping on Labour once the bookmakers suggest prices for the constituencies.
Likely very true, still think the odd hold against the head is possible though - Stockton West or Middlesborough East perhaps. They'd both hold on a 1997 level swing. I'll not be putting money on it though!
Not on Teesside. The stench of death is amongst them. Ben Houchen keeps insisting that there is absolutely nothing wrong with all that public money going to his friends. Simon Ding Dong Clarke was the uber-Trussite. The rest of the 2019 Tories don't know what day it is - the smart one was Dehenna Davison and she's smart enough to know its time to go.
The mayoral vote should illuminate us further on this
Would be a good by election for the Tories to accidentally muck up their selection and not field a candidate
Definitely , the tories are going to lose all their red wall seats so its better they go to Reform than Labour
I suspect there will be a random hold or two in unlikely places. A lonely blue outpost in a sea of red
I, in my turn, suspect the only game in town will be lumping on Labour once the bookmakers suggest prices for the constituencies.
Likely very true, still think the odd hold against the head is possible though - Stockton West or Middlesborough East perhaps. They'd both hold on a 1997 level swing. I'll not be putting money on it though!
Not on Teesside. The stench of death is amongst them. Ben Houchen keeps insisting that there is absolutely nothing wrong with all that public money going to his friends. Simon Ding Dong Clarke was the uber-Trussite. The rest of the 2019 Tories don't know what day it is - the smart one was Dehenna Davison and she's smart enough to know its time to go.
Dehenna Davison saw the writing on the wall very early on.
I'm still not 100% sure Ben's going to lose though - which is frankly terrifying.
Back onto Scott Braincell for a moment. I assume that he wasn't the genius behind the "if I take the Chiltern Hundreds now they can hold the byelection on the 2nd May" plan. So the whips?
There will very likely be a decent showing by the FUKers in the byelection. So I assume the calculation is better to get on with it on 2nd May with the locals than have it happen *afterwards* in the midst of the putsch.
I have been looking in detail at the new Scottish Hate Crime Act. It is illiberal authoritarian nonsense at its worst, Scotland obviously aiming for some prize as the country bringing in more stupid legislation which then has to be reversed than any other country.
If @DavidL thinks that this will stop me saying anything about Scottish people he can think again. This is a law which deserves to be ridiculed into oblivion, a stake through its heart, never to be heard of again.
I was thinking of a header on it - and if @DavidL has to recuse himself - will see if I can come up with something. Though TBH there has been a lot of very good commentary on it already.
Please spare us your cant.....
Only if you spare making unjustified and deeply offensive accusations against me. You can apologise privately if you prefer.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The outlook is giving moo until the 5-6th of April.
“One of the most hideously vile, tediously unvaried and unappealing months of all time [March 2024]. Absolutely nothing decent on offer. Barely any sun, no convection, hardly any warmth, a couple of frosts and no snow. Just perpetual grey skies with repulsively chilly days and disgusting mild nights. Yet again conditions worse than a bad November 🤮
Makes last March seem brilliant by comparison. I spent the end of that revolting month in London and the weather was so foul it beggared belief. Should be a long long time before anything as repellent as that would disgrace the final third of the month but I am off there again tomorrow and not only does it look every bit as rank as last year but if anything even worse. It would seem 6am on Saturday is the only time there will be any sun 🤬
The bare minimum you could expect was a couple of reasonable days in a week. Now it's just week after week of relentless cloud and rain. The UK climate truly has been relegated into the lowest tier of utter garbage alongside bleak sparsely populated outposts like the Faeroes, Falklands and Aleutians. A poisonous dump of a country unfit for human habitation 🤢
Ah, you’ve discovered the poet laureate of weather misery richardabdn. A stalwart of TWO and like a meteorological cross between Pagan and Malcolm.
That is an excellent moanfest
Also, he’s not entirely wrong
Britain used to have changeable weather. Which was irritating but also tolerable - if you hate the rain just wait it will be sunny in an hour. Etc. Now it’s relentlessly the same. It gets stuck in ruts - or so it feels
That’s nice if we get a lockdown spring or a heatwave in June. But generally it seems we now get long long periods of unbroken grey and damp - or at least that’s my perception from this poolside bar in sunny Santa Marta Colombia
Back onto Scott Braincell for a moment. I assume that he wasn't the genius behind the "if I take the Chiltern Hundreds now they can hold the byelection on the 2nd May" plan. So the whips?
There will very likely be a decent showing by the FUKers in the byelection. So I assume the calculation is better to get on with it on 2nd May with the locals than have it happen *afterwards* in the midst of the putsch.
If it wasn't the 2nd it would be the 16th or 23rd and would become a final focus for the writing of letters..
Now the focus is on the 2nd and a lot of the results will be explainable away (i,e. we lost Teesside but that's hardly surprising Ben was a crook)
Comments
Labour will win but its the sort of place they will win on pitiful turnout and with a lower vote total than they got in 2019 I think
After all, it would be novel for you.
NO! NON NON NON. NYET
I’ve had non stop blue skies and tropical heat for three months, indeed five months if you discount a couple of weeks in London and Cornwall over Xmas
I am actually craving some cool overcast weather. Maybe a raincoat. Streets glistening with drizzle, streetlights reflected in puddles. Daffodils shaken by a chilly breeze, the timid buds of April
I predict this mood will last 3 days once I return to the UK, and I shall revert to loathing the cold British climate, and once again yearn pathetically for tropic sun
ONE nice day in the next two weeks. Otherwise relentless rain and grey
I’m not imagining it, am I? The British climate is getting WORSE
You're missing nothing.
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
My friends and fam are moaning about it. Bad even by British standards
We’ve missed your laconic turn of phrase
Thanks
😶
Note I am not a supporter of the conservatives here just saying what I think will happen
Starmer and Reeves are the less worrying things about Labour; it reveals the depths of Tory woes that they are up against those two as the best of and they still going to get creamed.
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001xprr/bbc-weekend-news-late-news-24032024?seriesId=unsliced
“One of the most hideously vile, tediously unvaried and unappealing months of all time [March 2024]. Absolutely nothing decent on offer. Barely any sun, no convection, hardly any warmth, a couple of frosts and no snow. Just perpetual grey skies with repulsively chilly days and disgusting mild nights. Yet again conditions worse than a bad November 🤮
Makes last March seem brilliant by comparison. I spent the end of that revolting month in London and the weather was so foul it beggared belief. Should be a long long time before anything as repellent as that would disgrace the final third of the month but I am off there again tomorrow and not only does it look every bit as rank as last year but if anything even worse. It would seem 6am on Saturday is the only time there will be any sun 🤬
The bare minimum you could expect was a couple of reasonable days in a week. Now it's just week after week of relentless cloud and rain. The UK climate truly has been relegated into the lowest tier of utter garbage alongside bleak sparsely populated outposts like the Faeroes, Falklands and Aleutians. A poisonous dump of a country unfit for human habitation 🤢
If @DavidL thinks that this will stop me saying anything about Scottish people he can think again. This is a law which deserves to be ridiculed into oblivion, a stake through its heart, never to be heard of again.
I was thinking of a header on it - and if @DavidL has to recuse himself - will see if I can come up with something. Though TBH there has been a lot of very good commentary on it already.
Whilst Starmer is in control though I don't see it happening. When Starmer loses control then Labour spirals back to beardy wonderland, or whatever new nonsense they can cook up.
I can't see being arrested in devon for breaking a law in scotland even if I have never been there flying.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
$175m is meaningful but not impossible
RefUK 22
Tory 20
The rest 8
Something like that maybe
https://labour.org.uk/updates/press-releases/rachel-reeves-mais-lecture/
I don't agree with all she says, but I think she'll be a net asset for Labour when the GE campaign launches.
Colombia is actually growing on me
The day time maximum for London in early April is 13c - we got to 12c today and we'll be below average to the weekend. If the low pressure ends up to the west we'll draw up some warmer air from the south which will kick off some hefty showers. Ideally, if it's to the south and it's a nice strong easterly up the river, we'll get a sinking in the Boat Race on Saturday.
Back to more important matters, the R&W data shows only 7% DK among men but 17% among women which may or may not be of significance. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 48% loyal, 23% Reform and 21% Labour. Once you strip out the DKs and weight on likelihood to vote, men have Labour ahead 39-25 while women have Labour ahead 47-18. Both groups have Reform on 14% so not sure how this ties in with other poll findings.
On to Deltapoll and men have Labour ahead 40-26 (Reform on 14) while with women it's 49-25 with Reform on just 7%. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 60% loyal, 17% Reform and 14% Labour which might explain the discrepency in the Conservative number between the two polls.
Among those aged over 65, a group which voted 64-17 in December 2019, Deltapoll have the Conservatives leading 40-30 with Reform on 14 which is a swing of 18.5% and R&W have Labour ahead 34-27 with Reform on 18 which would be a 28% swing.
My guess would be the highest Reform vote shares will be in Conservative held seats with a higher than average proportion of voters over 65.
Oliver Swanick's already won.
Maybe Sunak can come second?
Fuck it. I’ll zip off to the canaries for a well earned break
I'm still not 100% sure Ben's going to lose though - which is frankly terrifying.
There will very likely be a decent showing by the FUKers in the byelection. So I assume the calculation is better to get on with it on 2nd May with the locals than have it happen *afterwards* in the midst of the putsch.
Of course the jet stream being what it is there’s always somewhere else benefiting, and at the moment that’s the far South East of Europe.
Also, he’s not entirely wrong
Britain used to have changeable weather. Which was irritating but also tolerable - if you hate the rain just wait it will be sunny in an hour. Etc. Now it’s relentlessly the same. It gets stuck in ruts - or so it feels
That’s nice if we get a lockdown spring or a heatwave in June. But generally it seems we now get long long periods of unbroken grey and damp - or at least that’s my perception from this poolside bar in sunny Santa Marta Colombia
Now the focus is on the 2nd and a lot of the results will be explainable away (i,e. we lost Teesside but that's hardly surprising Ben was a crook)