Back onto Scott Braincell for a moment. I assume that he wasn't the genius behind the "if I take the Chiltern Hundreds now they can hold the byelection on the 2nd May" plan. So the whips?
There will very likely be a decent showing by the FUKers in the byelection. So I assume the calculation is better to get on with it on 2nd May with the locals than have it happen *afterwards* in the midst of the putsch.
All part of one bad news cycle, not its own one and hope they get a good news story elsewhere (where?!) to lessen the impact
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
I think she's their biggest asset. A Labour politician talking some degree of economic sense - it's not happened before.
A Labour politician advocating for near-total replication of Conservative economic policy. If being not actually a Tory is enough for most people then it won't make any difference. If a significant fraction of the electorate starts to ask awkward questions about what's going to change besides the occupants of ministerial limos, then they're in trouble.
Would be a good by election for the Tories to accidentally muck up their selection and not field a candidate
Definitely , the tories are going to lose all their red wall seats so its better they go to Reform than Labour
I suspect there will be a random hold or two in unlikely places. A lonely blue outpost in a sea of red
I, in my turn, suspect the only game in town will be lumping on Labour once the bookmakers suggest prices for the constituencies.
Likely very true, still think the odd hold against the head is possible though - Stockton West or Middlesborough East perhaps. They'd both hold on a 1997 level swing. I'll not be putting money on it though!
Not on Teesside. The stench of death is amongst them. Ben Houchen keeps insisting that there is absolutely nothing wrong with all that public money going to his friends. Simon Ding Dong Clarke was the uber-Trussite. The rest of the 2019 Tories don't know what day it is - the smart one was Dehenna Davison and she's smart enough to know its time to go.
Dehenna Davison saw the writing on the wall very early on.
I'm still not 100% sure Ben's going to lose though - which is frankly terrifying.
Houchen is well backed by local client media. And demolished Jessie Jessie Jessie Jessie Joe Jacobs last time. So you would think he could win again.
But, Red Wall voters aren't stupid. They have got three parts of sod all to show for his endless ramping about what he is delivering. And a bill for half a billion quid to decontaminate prime land which has accidentally been sold to his mates for 14/6. And they're NOT happy about it.
Labour's candidate is I believe not a mentalist this time, so they should win. Would be a shock if they didn't. FWIW the Tory Mayor I expect to win is Andy Street who seems as level-headed and apolitical as you can get.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
I know you’re scotch and you have exceptionally low standards but surely even in Scotland 1 hour of sun on a 10C maximum day otherwise dominated by cloud and cold rain does not constitute “a sunny day”. Does it?
Would I be right to assume that some PB punters aren't that well acquainted with Blackpool? I can see ReFUK doing really well.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
Never seen the attraction of the Pleasure Beach. Or Blackpool.
Lytham St Annes is more attractive as a beach destination, without all the tat.
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
I think she's their biggest asset. A Labour politician talking some degree of economic sense - it's not happened before.
A Labour politician advocating for near-total replication of Conservative economic policy. If being not actually a Tory is enough for most people then it won't make any difference. If a significant fraction of the electorate starts to ask awkward questions about what's going to change besides the occupants of ministerial limos, then they're in trouble.
Is that really what you took from her Mais lecture? 90 minutes of policy that put her significantly to the left of Blair and Brown.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The outlook is giving moo until the 5-6th of April.
“One of the most hideously vile, tediously unvaried and unappealing months of all time [March 2024]. Absolutely nothing decent on offer. Barely any sun, no convection, hardly any warmth, a couple of frosts and no snow. Just perpetual grey skies with repulsively chilly days and disgusting mild nights. Yet again conditions worse than a bad November 🤮
Makes last March seem brilliant by comparison. I spent the end of that revolting month in London and the weather was so foul it beggared belief. Should be a long long time before anything as repellent as that would disgrace the final third of the month but I am off there again tomorrow and not only does it look every bit as rank as last year but if anything even worse. It would seem 6am on Saturday is the only time there will be any sun 🤬
The bare minimum you could expect was a couple of reasonable days in a week. Now it's just week after week of relentless cloud and rain. The UK climate truly has been relegated into the lowest tier of utter garbage alongside bleak sparsely populated outposts like the Faeroes, Falklands and Aleutians. A poisonous dump of a country unfit for human habitation 🤢
Ah, you’ve discovered the poet laureate of weather misery richardabdn. A stalwart of TWO and like a meteorological cross between Pagan and Malcolm.
That is an excellent moanfest
Also, he’s not entirely wrong
Britain used to have changeable weather. Which was irritating but also tolerable - if you hate the rain just wait it will be sunny in an hour. Etc. Now it’s relentlessly the same. It gets stuck in ruts - or so it feels
That’s nice if we get a lockdown spring or a heatwave in June. But generally it seems we now get long long periods of unbroken grey and damp - or at least that’s my perception from this poolside bar in sunny Santa Marta Colombia
The weather has been truly miserable this year. Perhaps heightened by the fact that the south has had 2 to 3 times the average rainfall. It's been bad enough up north. But much less over the average and we are at least used to it. As an added bonus tonight is supposed to be a spectacular aurora. But we haven't seen the sky all day.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
I know you’re scotch and you have exceptionally low standards but surely even in Scotland 1 hour of sun on a 10C maximum day otherwise dominated by cloud and cold rain does not constitute “a sunny day”. Does it?
😶
4°C, heavy rain, "feels like" -1°C
I’m in 32C, hot sun, “feels like” 43C - the exact opposite
It’s too hot but I nonetheless prefer it to yours, if am being blunt
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
I think she's their biggest asset. A Labour politician talking some degree of economic sense - it's not happened before.
A Labour politician advocating for near-total replication of Conservative economic policy. If being not actually a Tory is enough for most people then it won't make any difference. If a significant fraction of the electorate starts to ask awkward questions about what's going to change besides the occupants of ministerial limos, then they're in trouble.
Labour have always been a shit-show economically. Hunt is a pretty conservative Chancellor - he has to be. Reeves has to pretty much follow. If she manages to not fuck up there will be a modest economic boost from 'people are happy'.
Before going on to more important matters, if you want to moan about the weather, join me over on netweather where I post regular analysis of the forecast charts - it's a bit like polling the atmosphere.
The day time maximum for London in early April is 13c - we got to 12c today and we'll be below average to the weekend. If the low pressure ends up to the west we'll draw up some warmer air from the south which will kick off some hefty showers. Ideally, if it's to the south and it's a nice strong easterly up the river, we'll get a sinking in the Boat Race on Saturday.
Back to more important matters, the R&W data shows only 7% DK among men but 17% among women which may or may not be of significance. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 48% loyal, 23% Reform and 21% Labour. Once you strip out the DKs and weight on likelihood to vote, men have Labour ahead 39-25 while women have Labour ahead 47-18. Both groups have Reform on 14% so not sure how this ties in with other poll findings.
On to Deltapoll and men have Labour ahead 40-26 (Reform on 14) while with women it's 49-25 with Reform on just 7%. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 60% loyal, 17% Reform and 14% Labour which might explain the discrepency in the Conservative number between the two polls.
Among those aged over 65, a group which voted 64-17 in December 2019, Deltapoll have the Conservatives leading 40-30 with Reform on 14 which is a swing of 18.5% and R&W have Labour ahead 34-27 with Reform on 18 which would be a 28% swing.
My guess would be the highest Reform vote shares will be in Conservative held seats with a higher than average proportion of voters over 65.
Currently the Tories and Reform are on a combined share of 35%, - 23% Tory, 12% Reform.
In order for Reform to win a seat. it needs to increase its share to 18%. Then it wins two seats - Boston and Skegness, and Clacton.
If the 6% increase in Reform share is at the expense of the Tories, then the Tory tally drops to 37 seats. (LibDems on 59). Now that would be interesting.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The outlook is giving moo until the 5-6th of April.
“One of the most hideously vile, tediously unvaried and unappealing months of all time [March 2024]. Absolutely nothing decent on offer. Barely any sun, no convection, hardly any warmth, a couple of frosts and no snow. Just perpetual grey skies with repulsively chilly days and disgusting mild nights. Yet again conditions worse than a bad November 🤮
Makes last March seem brilliant by comparison. I spent the end of that revolting month in London and the weather was so foul it beggared belief. Should be a long long time before anything as repellent as that would disgrace the final third of the month but I am off there again tomorrow and not only does it look every bit as rank as last year but if anything even worse. It would seem 6am on Saturday is the only time there will be any sun 🤬
The bare minimum you could expect was a couple of reasonable days in a week. Now it's just week after week of relentless cloud and rain. The UK climate truly has been relegated into the lowest tier of utter garbage alongside bleak sparsely populated outposts like the Faeroes, Falklands and Aleutians. A poisonous dump of a country unfit for human habitation 🤢
Ah, you’ve discovered the poet laureate of weather misery richardabdn. A stalwart of TWO and like a meteorological cross between Pagan and Malcolm.
That is an excellent moanfest
Also, he’s not entirely wrong
Britain used to have changeable weather. Which was irritating but also tolerable - if you hate the rain just wait it will be sunny in an hour. Etc. Now it’s relentlessly the same. It gets stuck in ruts - or so it feels
That’s nice if we get a lockdown spring or a heatwave in June. But generally it seems we now get long long periods of unbroken grey and damp - or at least that’s my perception from this poolside bar in sunny Santa Marta Colombia
We shall see what happens in the Summer. My recollection of the last one is that it was really quite nice, though that may be coloured by the fact that we weren't all nearly roasted to death like we were in 2022.
But yes, pretty much the whole of the last five or six months has been relentlessly terrible. A constant conveyor belt of Atlantic storm systems. Wind, rain, wind, rain, wind, rain, but mostly wind and rain at the same time. That, at least, seems to have abated somewhat, which is progress. There was even about half an hour of broken sunshine when I went on my day trip today, all sparkling on the river. It looked quite pleasant, when viewed through the windows of a nice warm pub.
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
I think she's their biggest asset. A Labour politician talking some degree of economic sense - it's not happened before.
A Labour politician advocating for near-total replication of Conservative economic policy. If being not actually a Tory is enough for most people then it won't make any difference. If a significant fraction of the electorate starts to ask awkward questions about what's going to change besides the occupants of ministerial limos, then they're in trouble.
Is that really what you took from her Mais lecture? 90 minutes of policy that put her significantly to the left of Blair and Brown.
she is being realistic enough with what they will inherit in terms of already sky high taxation and debt (with crap public services to boot) - usually the tories can argue they get 2 out of 3 right but definitely none right and therefore no hope . Labour know they can risk the odd seat in order to not over promise so make it easier in power
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
I know you’re scotch and you have exceptionally low standards but surely even in Scotland 1 hour of sun on a 10C maximum day otherwise dominated by cloud and cold rain does not constitute “a sunny day”. Does it?
😶
4°C, heavy rain, "feels like" -1°C
I’m in 32C, hot sun, “feels like” 43C - the exact opposite
It’s too hot but I nonetheless prefer it to yours, if am being blunt
The weather over the Easter weekend in London looks decent, a bit of sun, the odd shower (low totals). Stop whining.
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
I think she's their biggest asset. A Labour politician talking some degree of economic sense - it's not happened before.
A Labour politician advocating for near-total replication of Conservative economic policy. If being not actually a Tory is enough for most people then it won't make any difference. If a significant fraction of the electorate starts to ask awkward questions about what's going to change besides the occupants of ministerial limos, then they're in trouble.
Is that really what you took from her Mais lecture? 90 minutes of policy that put her significantly to the left of Blair and Brown.
@pigeon is a more articulate manifestation of @BigJohnOwls. Same unthinking, uninformed opinions albeit using bigger words.
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
Disagree with that. She's a serious politician for serious times, not charismatic, but she knows her stuff. Her Mais Lecture last week was wide-ranging and pretty good - linked to again for anybody interested: https://labour.org.uk/updates/press-releases/rachel-reeves-mais-lecture/ I don't agree with all she says, but I think she'll be a net asset for Labour when the GE campaign launches.
A Chancellor or Shadow Chancellor's job during an election campaign is to be as dull and reassuring as possible while convincing people that the numbers broadly add up so your principal and other high profile figures can promise the fun stuff.
Reeves in that respect will be an asset, not because she's got spades of charisma but because she hasn't. She isn't going to create a week's headlines by making a flashy promise that gets loads of coverage but quickly comes unstuck.
Where Labour might have an issue is that Starmer isn't the most natural performer either. Though as he's shown recently when he hits on a theme he truly gets, and that plays to his hinterland, he can be compelling. Plus benefits from relatively low expectations of him personally even while miles ahead in the polls.
For example if there are debates or Neil-style interviews and he has a few human and witty moments and comes across pretty OK, it'd register more positively than might if exactly the same happened and had been built up as 90s Blair Mark II.
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
I think she's their biggest asset. A Labour politician talking some degree of economic sense - it's not happened before.
A Labour politician advocating for near-total replication of Conservative economic policy. If being not actually a Tory is enough for most people then it won't make any difference. If a significant fraction of the electorate starts to ask awkward questions about what's going to change besides the occupants of ministerial limos, then they're in trouble.
I'll be there Friday (Terraforming Mars) and Saturday (Ark Nova). I'm retiring from my day job in 6 months and trying to avoid entirely filling my time with politics, tempting thought that always is.
On the other hand, I'm standing for Labour's National Executive Committee, and trying for an Open Labour endorsement, i.e. non-factional left of centre (like Ann Black).
I'll be there Friday (Terraforming Mars) and Saturday (Ark Nova). I'm retiring from my day job in 6 months and trying to avoid entirely filling my time with politics, tempting thought that always is.
On the other hand, I'm standing for Labour's National Executive Committee, and trying for an Open Labour endorsement, i.e. non-factional left of centre (like Ann Black).
i run a board games club in a local pub on tuesdays (middle of the road - not too nerdy but not too dumbed down) but not going to this
fav games
camel up colt express werewolf snakes skull king and as a ending party game "so clover" is good
Before going on to more important matters, if you want to moan about the weather, join me over on netweather where I post regular analysis of the forecast charts - it's a bit like polling the atmosphere.
The day time maximum for London in early April is 13c - we got to 12c today and we'll be below average to the weekend. If the low pressure ends up to the west we'll draw up some warmer air from the south which will kick off some hefty showers. Ideally, if it's to the south and it's a nice strong easterly up the river, we'll get a sinking in the Boat Race on Saturday.
Back to more important matters, the R&W data shows only 7% DK among men but 17% among women which may or may not be of significance. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 48% loyal, 23% Reform and 21% Labour. Once you strip out the DKs and weight on likelihood to vote, men have Labour ahead 39-25 while women have Labour ahead 47-18. Both groups have Reform on 14% so not sure how this ties in with other poll findings.
On to Deltapoll and men have Labour ahead 40-26 (Reform on 14) while with women it's 49-25 with Reform on just 7%. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 60% loyal, 17% Reform and 14% Labour which might explain the discrepency in the Conservative number between the two polls.
Among those aged over 65, a group which voted 64-17 in December 2019, Deltapoll have the Conservatives leading 40-30 with Reform on 14 which is a swing of 18.5% and R&W have Labour ahead 34-27 with Reform on 18 which would be a 28% swing.
My guess would be the highest Reform vote shares will be in Conservative held seats with a higher than average proportion of voters over 65.
Currently the Tories and Reform are on a combined share of 35%, - 23% Tory, 12% Reform.
In order for Reform to win a seat. it needs to increase its share to 18%. Then it wins two seats - Boston and Skegness, and Clacton.
If the 6% increase in Reform share is at the expense of the Tories, then the Tory tally drops to 37 seats. (LibDems on 59). Now that would be interesting.
On those numbers the LD seats under FPTP would almost exactly match the seats they won with PR. Labour would win a massive 226 seats more with FPTP however than they would get with PR based on their voteshare.
Yet the Tories would be 73 seats short of the seats they would win with PR based on their voteshare and Reform would be a massive 115 seats short of the seats they would win with PR under FPTP.
The more Reform splits the Tory vote then the more FPTP benefits the liberal left not the right. Indeed if that becomes a pattern it should be the right then pushing for PR not the left
Would be a good by election for the Tories to accidentally muck up their selection and not field a candidate
Definitely , the tories are going to lose all their red wall seats so its better they go to Reform than Labour
I suspect there will be a random hold or two in unlikely places. A lonely blue outpost in a sea of red
I, in my turn, suspect the only game in town will be lumping on Labour once the bookmakers suggest prices for the constituencies.
Likely very true, still think the odd hold against the head is possible though - Stockton West or Middlesborough East perhaps. They'd both hold on a 1997 level swing. I'll not be putting money on it though!
Not on Teesside. The stench of death is amongst them. Ben Houchen keeps insisting that there is absolutely nothing wrong with all that public money going to his friends. Simon Ding Dong Clarke was the uber-Trussite. The rest of the 2019 Tories don't know what day it is - the smart one was Dehenna Davison and she's smart enough to know its time to go.
Dehenna Davison saw the writing on the wall very early on.
I'm still not 100% sure Ben's going to lose though - which is frankly terrifying.
Houchen is well backed by local client media. And demolished Jessie Jessie Jessie Jessie Joe Jacobs last time. So you would think he could win again.
But, Red Wall voters aren't stupid. They have got three parts of sod all to show for his endless ramping about what he is delivering. And a bill for half a billion quid to decontaminate prime land which has accidentally been sold to his mates for 14/6. And they're NOT happy about it.
Labour's candidate is I believe not a mentalist this time, so they should win. Would be a shock if they didn't. FWIW the Tory Mayor I expect to win is Andy Street who seems as level-headed and apolitical as you can get.
Street seems like a good egg, the sort of Tory who deserves to survive, and he also seems to be playing down his party link as much as he can. Who can blame him for that?
But in 2021, he won by a smidgen under 10 points, when that was the national lead for the party. He's got to do an awful lot of swinging to beat the national swing.
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
I think she's their biggest asset. A Labour politician talking some degree of economic sense - it's not happened before.
A Labour politician advocating for near-total replication of Conservative economic policy. If being not actually a Tory is enough for most people then it won't make any difference. If a significant fraction of the electorate starts to ask awkward questions about what's going to change besides the occupants of ministerial limos, then they're in trouble.
Not quite. It is more French, more American and more social democrat. Not bad as she starts with minus £2.3 trillion to splash out. Two useful and brief commentaries:
I'm spending the rest of this week in a boutique hotel in Antibles highly recommended. I was inspired to leave my place 15 km's along the coast by your daily photos of hotel tables by antiseptic pools with a glass and an occasional computer on the white draped table. Can hotel living really be this bland.?
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
I think she's their biggest asset. A Labour politician talking some degree of economic sense - it's not happened before.
A Labour politician advocating for near-total replication of Conservative economic policy. If being not actually a Tory is enough for most people then it won't make any difference. If a significant fraction of the electorate starts to ask awkward questions about what's going to change besides the occupants of ministerial limos, then they're in trouble.
Labour have always been a shit-show economically. Hunt is a pretty conservative Chancellor - he has to be. Reeves has to pretty much follow. If she manages to not fuck up there will be a modest economic boost from 'people are happy'.
There might be a very small boost from people being relieved that there isn't a continuation of the current pantomime. This won't last very long, however, if and when it becomes apparent that progressively larger and larger fractions of the public are being squeezed to death in the vice of heavy income taxation, decaying public services and runaway housing costs. That's what a Continuity Hunt economic platform promises, and that looks like what we've got coming. The excuses are being got in even before the election: in essence, that we can do bugger all because there's no money, and another Parliament of Austerity isn't our fault, it's on the other lot.
You can see it coming a mile off. They're going to go around looking for more stuff to cut and blaming it on the Tories. Like a mirror image of 2010. It'll go down like a cup of cold sick.
Relevant to the Scottish Hate Crime Law and the proposed Irish legislation along the same lines. Interestingly, Varadkar never became Taoiseach after winning a general election, but only by winning a party election, much like our own Tory PMs here. Same with his replacement of course.
I'll be there Friday (Terraforming Mars) and Saturday (Ark Nova). I'm retiring from my day job in 6 months and trying to avoid entirely filling my time with politics, tempting thought that always is.
On the other hand, I'm standing for Labour's National Executive Committee, and trying for an Open Labour endorsement, i.e. non-factional left of centre (like Ann Black).
I read that as uk-game-sexpo and assumed you were up to your old tricks!
It does seem like this Scott Benyon is not as bright or honest as the good people of Blackpool might have hoped and deserved, and I don't weep for him. Nevertheless it seems to be completely wrong for these failed journalists to try to create news by tricking out our elected representatives. It is just like the guy that showed Princess Diana the forged bank statements. Good journalists report news not fabricate it.
Would I be right to assume that some PB punters aren't that well acquainted with Blackpool? I can see ReFUK doing really well.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
You used to be able to get a cheap B and B room in Blackpool for Tory (and Labour) conferences which even students could afford. Plus enjoy some bracing sea air after the debates and speeches before the evening bars.
Now you have to spend a fortune for some corporate soulless hotel room in Manchester or Birmingham if you want to attend a party conference. One thing that could do something to stop even further decline in Blackpool is to have some party conferences in seaside resorts again!
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
I think she's their biggest asset. A Labour politician talking some degree of economic sense - it's not happened before.
A Labour politician advocating for near-total replication of Conservative economic policy. If being not actually a Tory is enough for most people then it won't make any difference. If a significant fraction of the electorate starts to ask awkward questions about what's going to change besides the occupants of ministerial limos, then they're in trouble.
Change the record.
Oh, it's the comment police again. Take a running jump.
I'll be there Friday (Terraforming Mars) and Saturday (Ark Nova). I'm retiring from my day job in 6 months and trying to avoid entirely filling my time with politics, tempting thought that always is.
On the other hand, I'm standing for Labour's National Executive Committee, and trying for an Open Labour endorsement, i.e. non-factional left of centre (like Ann Black).
Best of luck; very much hope you get onto the NEC, and that your party (which I don't usually vote for) wins the election.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
I know you’re scotch and you have exceptionally low standards but surely even in Scotland 1 hour of sun on a 10C maximum day otherwise dominated by cloud and cold rain does not constitute “a sunny day”. Does it?
😶
4°C, heavy rain, "feels like" -1°C
I’m in 32C, hot sun, “feels like” 43C - the exact opposite
It’s too hot but I nonetheless prefer it to yours, if am being blunt
The weather over the Easter weekend in London looks decent, a bit of sun, the odd shower (low totals). Stop whining.
I've booked for a week in Seville over Easter. leaving on Good Friday. I was told its always hot and sunny in Seville. Looking forward to it.
Here is the latest forecast for Seville over the weekend.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
I know you’re scotch and you have exceptionally low standards but surely even in Scotland 1 hour of sun on a 10C maximum day otherwise dominated by cloud and cold rain does not constitute “a sunny day”. Does it?
😶
Course it does. Who needs lots of nasty sun? I'm currently watching the progress of a breeding pair of kingfishers on my morning walk and a little sun goes a long way.
I'm spending the rest of this week in a boutique hotel in Antibles highly recommended. I was inspired to leave my place 15 km's along the coast by your daily photos of hotel tables by antiseptic pools with a glass and an occasional computer on the white draped table. Can hotel living really be this bland.?
....tune in next Tuesday and I'll let you know.
I’ve just been deep in the Colombian tayrona jungle for a week, meeting stone age people
And before that I was in the Antioquian forests, taking ayahuasca, with shamans,
But sure. I only ever post photos from banal hotels
Before going on to more important matters, if you want to moan about the weather, join me over on netweather where I post regular analysis of the forecast charts - it's a bit like polling the atmosphere.
The day time maximum for London in early April is 13c - we got to 12c today and we'll be below average to the weekend. If the low pressure ends up to the west we'll draw up some warmer air from the south which will kick off some hefty showers. Ideally, if it's to the south and it's a nice strong easterly up the river, we'll get a sinking in the Boat Race on Saturday.
Back to more important matters, the R&W data shows only 7% DK among men but 17% among women which may or may not be of significance. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 48% loyal, 23% Reform and 21% Labour. Once you strip out the DKs and weight on likelihood to vote, men have Labour ahead 39-25 while women have Labour ahead 47-18. Both groups have Reform on 14% so not sure how this ties in with other poll findings.
On to Deltapoll and men have Labour ahead 40-26 (Reform on 14) while with women it's 49-25 with Reform on just 7%. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 60% loyal, 17% Reform and 14% Labour which might explain the discrepency in the Conservative number between the two polls.
Among those aged over 65, a group which voted 64-17 in December 2019, Deltapoll have the Conservatives leading 40-30 with Reform on 14 which is a swing of 18.5% and R&W have Labour ahead 34-27 with Reform on 18 which would be a 28% swing.
My guess would be the highest Reform vote shares will be in Conservative held seats with a higher than average proportion of voters over 65.
Currently the Tories and Reform are on a combined share of 35%, - 23% Tory, 12% Reform.
In order for Reform to win a seat. it needs to increase its share to 18%. Then it wins two seats - Boston and Skegness, and Clacton.
If the 6% increase in Reform share is at the expense of the Tories, then the Tory tally drops to 37 seats. (LibDems on 59). Now that would be interesting.
On those numbers the LD seats under FPTP would almost exactly match the seats they won with PR. Labour would win a massive 226 seats more with FPTP however than they would get with PR based on their voteshare.
Yet the Tories would be 73 seats short of the seats they would win with PR based on their voteshare and Reform would be a massive 115 seats short of the seats they would win with PR under FPTP.
The more Reform splits the Tory vote then the more FPTP benefits the liberal left not the right. Indeed if that becomes a pattern it should be the right then pushing for PR not the left
If only you and your ilk had come to this realisation when it might have made a difference.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The outlook is giving moo until the 5-6th of April.
“One of the most hideously vile, tediously unvaried and unappealing months of all time [March 2024]. Absolutely nothing decent on offer. Barely any sun, no convection, hardly any warmth, a couple of frosts and no snow. Just perpetual grey skies with repulsively chilly days and disgusting mild nights. Yet again conditions worse than a bad November 🤮
Makes last March seem brilliant by comparison. I spent the end of that revolting month in London and the weather was so foul it beggared belief. Should be a long long time before anything as repellent as that would disgrace the final third of the month but I am off there again tomorrow and not only does it look every bit as rank as last year but if anything even worse. It would seem 6am on Saturday is the only time there will be any sun 🤬
The bare minimum you could expect was a couple of reasonable days in a week. Now it's just week after week of relentless cloud and rain. The UK climate truly has been relegated into the lowest tier of utter garbage alongside bleak sparsely populated outposts like the Faeroes, Falklands and Aleutians. A poisonous dump of a country unfit for human habitation 🤢
We had snow a couple of weeks ago, and at least two sunny days (not consequetive).
But yes, it’s been a bit shit. When the sun returns it will be all the sweeter for it. That first proper spring day, clocks gone forward so light until 8 pm. Warm in the afternoon sun, but then the chill creeps in to remind you that it’s not quite time yet to throw on shorts nor cast a clout, whatever that is.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The outlook is giving moo until the 5-6th of April.
“One of the most hideously vile, tediously unvaried and unappealing months of all time [March 2024]. Absolutely nothing decent on offer. Barely any sun, no convection, hardly any warmth, a couple of frosts and no snow. Just perpetual grey skies with repulsively chilly days and disgusting mild nights. Yet again conditions worse than a bad November 🤮
Makes last March seem brilliant by comparison. I spent the end of that revolting month in London and the weather was so foul it beggared belief. Should be a long long time before anything as repellent as that would disgrace the final third of the month but I am off there again tomorrow and not only does it look every bit as rank as last year but if anything even worse. It would seem 6am on Saturday is the only time there will be any sun 🤬
The bare minimum you could expect was a couple of reasonable days in a week. Now it's just week after week of relentless cloud and rain. The UK climate truly has been relegated into the lowest tier of utter garbage alongside bleak sparsely populated outposts like the Faeroes, Falklands and Aleutians. A poisonous dump of a country unfit for human habitation 🤢
"UK".
We've had a fair bit of sun up north. Admittedly by my standards, but I did wonder on a couplke of occasions if I should have put on some factor50 before leaving the house.
Would I be right to assume that some PB punters aren't that well acquainted with Blackpool? I can see ReFUK doing really well.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
You used to be able to get a cheap B and B room in Blackpool for Tory (and Labour) conferences which even students could afford. Plus enjoy some bracing sea air after the debates and speeches before the evening bars.
Now you have to spend a fortune for some corporate soulless hotel room in Manchester or Birmingham if you want to attend a party conference. One thing that could do something to stop even further decline in Blackpool is to have some party conferences in seaside resorts again!
So in summary, the Tory solution to a town which is run down, squalid, dirty and poor is to hold Tory Party conference there for part of 1 week. What about the other 51 weeks?
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
I know you’re scotch and you have exceptionally low standards but surely even in Scotland 1 hour of sun on a 10C maximum day otherwise dominated by cloud and cold rain does not constitute “a sunny day”. Does it?
😶
4°C, heavy rain, "feels like" -1°C
I’m in 32C, hot sun, “feels like” 43C - the exact opposite
It’s too hot but I nonetheless prefer it to yours, if am being blunt
The weather over the Easter weekend in London looks decent, a bit of sun, the odd shower (low totals). Stop whining.
I've booked for a week in Seville over Easter. leaving on Good Friday. I was told its always hot and sunny in Seville. Looking forward to it.
Here is the latest forecast for Seville over the weekend.
I’ve been to Seville once, in November a few years ago. Chucked it down every single day.
Would I be right to assume that some PB punters aren't that well acquainted with Blackpool? I can see ReFUK doing really well.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
You used to be able to get a cheap B and B room in Blackpool for Tory (and Labour) conferences which even students could afford. Plus enjoy some bracing sea air after the debates and speeches before the evening bars.
Now you have to spend a fortune for some corporate soulless hotel room in Manchester or Birmingham if you want to attend a party conference. One thing that could do something to stop even further decline in Blackpool is to have some party conferences in seaside resorts again!
So in summary, the Tory solution to a town which is run down, squalid, dirty and poor is to hold Tory Party conference there for part of 1 week. What about the other 51 weeks?
You forgot, cancel the railway improvements to the town the week before the conference.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
I know you’re scotch and you have exceptionally low standards but surely even in Scotland 1 hour of sun on a 10C maximum day otherwise dominated by cloud and cold rain does not constitute “a sunny day”. Does it?
😶
4°C, heavy rain, "feels like" -1°C
I’m in 32C, hot sun, “feels like” 43C - the exact opposite
It’s too hot but I nonetheless prefer it to yours, if am being blunt
The weather over the Easter weekend in London looks decent, a bit of sun, the odd shower (low totals). Stop whining.
I've booked for a week in Seville over Easter. leaving on Good Friday. I was told its always hot and sunny in Seville. Looking forward to it.
Here is the latest forecast for Seville over the weekend.
I’ve been to Seville once, in November a few years ago. Chucked it down every single day.
I'm spending the rest of this week in a boutique hotel in Antibles highly recommended. I was inspired to leave my place 15 km's along the coast by your daily photos of hotel tables by antiseptic pools with a glass and an occasional computer on the white draped table. Can hotel living really be this bland.?
....tune in next Tuesday and I'll let you know.
I’ve just been deep in the Colombian tayrona jungle for a week, meeting stone age people
And before that I was in the Antioquian forests, taking ayahuasca, with shamans,
But sure. I only ever post photos from banal hotels
meeting stone age people ---- didnt know you had your mates there
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
I think she's their biggest asset. A Labour politician talking some degree of economic sense - it's not happened before.
A Labour politician advocating for near-total replication of Conservative economic policy. If being not actually a Tory is enough for most people then it won't make any difference. If a significant fraction of the electorate starts to ask awkward questions about what's going to change besides the occupants of ministerial limos, then they're in trouble.
Is that really what you took from her Mais lecture? 90 minutes of policy that put her significantly to the left of Blair and Brown.
she is being realistic enough with what they will inherit in terms of already sky high taxation and debt (with crap public services to boot) - usually the tories can argue they get 2 out of 3 right but definitely none right and therefore no hope . Labour know they can risk the odd seat in order to not over promise so make it easier in power
The danger for Starmer/Reeves is they end up like Francois Hollande, disappointing their core supporters with MOR policies, while their transactional voters drift away after the novelty wears off. Hollande ended up so unpopular he didn't stand for re-election. Its what happens to the uncharismatic. I think it could happen to Starmer if the Tories are led in opposition by someone with a bit of oomph - and who is not a total bampot in the Truss/Braverman model. They really need Penny to hold on to her seat - she could prove a formidable opponent.
I'll be there Friday (Terraforming Mars) and Saturday (Ark Nova). I'm retiring from my day job in 6 months and trying to avoid entirely filling my time with politics, tempting thought that always is.
On the other hand, I'm standing for Labour's National Executive Committee, and trying for an Open Labour endorsement, i.e. non-factional left of centre (like Ann Black).
Best of luck; very much hope you get onto the NEC, and that your party (which I don't usually vote for) wins the election.
My Labour contacts here on east Wight clearly think that Labour HQ is up to dirty tricks or excessive control-freakery when it comes to the parliamentary selection here. Despite the possibility of an imminent election, the local party is being blocked from selecting a candidate, to the extent that potentially strong local candidates are withdrawing from the fray. My guess is that the politburo is hanging onto the seat as one which, under Labour rules, it can parachute somebody under a promise in at the last minute, since once the election is called, their local parties lose any power to decide who their candidate is. Cf. my so far unpublished book telling the story of how I was personally responsible for Alan Johnson entering Parliament back in 1997…
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The outlook is giving moo until the 5-6th of April.
“One of the most hideously vile, tediously unvaried and unappealing months of all time [March 2024]. Absolutely nothing decent on offer. Barely any sun, no convection, hardly any warmth, a couple of frosts and no snow. Just perpetual grey skies with repulsively chilly days and disgusting mild nights. Yet again conditions worse than a bad November 🤮
Makes last March seem brilliant by comparison. I spent the end of that revolting month in London and the weather was so foul it beggared belief. Should be a long long time before anything as repellent as that would disgrace the final third of the month but I am off there again tomorrow and not only does it look every bit as rank as last year but if anything even worse. It would seem 6am on Saturday is the only time there will be any sun 🤬
The bare minimum you could expect was a couple of reasonable days in a week. Now it's just week after week of relentless cloud and rain. The UK climate truly has been relegated into the lowest tier of utter garbage alongside bleak sparsely populated outposts like the Faeroes, Falklands and Aleutians. A poisonous dump of a country unfit for human habitation 🤢
"UK".
We've had a fair bit of sun up north. Admittedly by my standards, but I did wonder on a couplke of occasions if I should have put on some factor50 before leaving the house.
Bit chilly but sunny on the Island today. Saw a little flock of sanderlings, some teal, and a few jay's while walking my pup.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The outlook is giving moo until the 5-6th of April.
“One of the most hideously vile, tediously unvaried and unappealing months of all time [March 2024]. Absolutely nothing decent on offer. Barely any sun, no convection, hardly any warmth, a couple of frosts and no snow. Just perpetual grey skies with repulsively chilly days and disgusting mild nights. Yet again conditions worse than a bad November 🤮
Makes last March seem brilliant by comparison. I spent the end of that revolting month in London and the weather was so foul it beggared belief. Should be a long long time before anything as repellent as that would disgrace the final third of the month but I am off there again tomorrow and not only does it look every bit as rank as last year but if anything even worse. It would seem 6am on Saturday is the only time there will be any sun 🤬
The bare minimum you could expect was a couple of reasonable days in a week. Now it's just week after week of relentless cloud and rain. The UK climate truly has been relegated into the lowest tier of utter garbage alongside bleak sparsely populated outposts like the Faeroes, Falklands and Aleutians. A poisonous dump of a country unfit for human habitation 🤢
We had snow a couple of weeks ago, and at least two sunny days (not consequetive).
But yes, it’s been a bit shit. When the sun returns it will be all the sweeter for it. That first proper spring day, clocks gone forward so light until 8 pm. Warm in the afternoon sun, but then the chill creeps in to remind you that it’s not quite time yet to throw on shorts nor cast a clout, whatever that is.
It’s coming.
Forecast is for snow here tomorrow. If we're lucky it'll just be sleet. Which is all doubling my enthusiasm for a day-long meeting adding comments to a spreadsheet due to upper management misunderstanding what 'agile' actually means.
Would I be right to assume that some PB punters aren't that well acquainted with Blackpool? I can see ReFUK doing really well.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
You used to be able to get a cheap B and B room in Blackpool for Tory (and Labour) conferences which even students could afford. Plus enjoy some bracing sea air after the debates and speeches before the evening bars.
Now you have to spend a fortune for some corporate soulless hotel room in Manchester or Birmingham if you want to attend a party conference. One thing that could do something to stop even further decline in Blackpool is to have some party conferences in seaside resorts again!
I went once as a delegate to a NUS conference. It was a very interesting experience. If I remember correctly we voted for a Communist as President (Aaronvitch or similar name?) because he was more sensible and likeable than the Labour/Broad Left candidate.
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
I think she's their biggest asset. A Labour politician talking some degree of economic sense - it's not happened before.
A Labour politician advocating for near-total replication of Conservative economic policy. If being not actually a Tory is enough for most people then it won't make any difference. If a significant fraction of the electorate starts to ask awkward questions about what's going to change besides the occupants of ministerial limos, then they're in trouble.
Is that really what you took from her Mais lecture? 90 minutes of policy that put her significantly to the left of Blair and Brown.
@pigeon is a more articulate manifestation of @BigJohnOwls. Same unthinking, uninformed opinions albeit using bigger words.
Reform is not a complete substitute, I am afraid, for redistribution. You can find the money to at least make a start on repairing the state and dealing with the vast problems of ill health and impoverishment in this country through growing the old pie or taking slices off some people to give to others - and there's precious little sign of rampant growth magically reappearing any time soon, whereas the need exists now.
We are dealing here with an Opposition that won't deploy wealth taxes, or raise taxes on residential property, capital gains or inheritances. They have, of course, promised an assortment of relatively modest revenue raising measures (two of which Hunt has nicked) but these are hardly transformative.
If, when the manifesto arrives, it contains stronger measures (more taxation on assets, a watering down of the triple lock for richer pensioners, basically anything that will result in significantly increased spending on people and in areas where it is sorely needed, then I'll change my tune. Right now, this doesn't look as if it will be forthcoming, does it?
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
I know you’re scotch and you have exceptionally low standards but surely even in Scotland 1 hour of sun on a 10C maximum day otherwise dominated by cloud and cold rain does not constitute “a sunny day”. Does it?
😶
Course it does. Who needs lots of nasty sun? I'm currently watching the progress of a breeding pair of kingfishers on my morning walk and a little sun goes a long way.
I am currently spending my mornings looking a the local duck pond and watching the dying embers of the xmas "new year! new me!" joggers fade away.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
I know you’re scotch and you have exceptionally low standards but surely even in Scotland 1 hour of sun on a 10C maximum day otherwise dominated by cloud and cold rain does not constitute “a sunny day”. Does it?
😶
4°C, heavy rain, "feels like" -1°C
I’m in 32C, hot sun, “feels like” 43C - the exact opposite
It’s too hot but I nonetheless prefer it to yours, if am being blunt
The weather over the Easter weekend in London looks decent, a bit of sun, the odd shower (low totals). Stop whining.
I've booked for a week in Seville over Easter. leaving on Good Friday. I was told its always hot and sunny in Seville. Looking forward to it.
Here is the latest forecast for Seville over the weekend.
That’s is exceptionally unlucky. Seville is generally the hottest and possibly the sunniest city in Europe (I think Athens and Split might rival it)
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
I know you’re scotch and you have exceptionally low standards but surely even in Scotland 1 hour of sun on a 10C maximum day otherwise dominated by cloud and cold rain does not constitute “a sunny day”. Does it?
😶
Course it does. Who needs lots of nasty sun? I'm currently watching the progress of a breeding pair of kingfishers on my morning walk and a little sun goes a long way.
I am currently spending my mornings looking a the local duck pond and watching the dying embers of the xmas "new year! new me!" joggers fade away.
best to wait to start new years resolutions to the Spring anyway as winter is enduring enough .No excuse now though!
I'm spending the rest of this week in a boutique hotel in Antibles highly recommended. I was inspired to leave my place 15 km's along the coast by your daily photos of hotel tables by antiseptic pools with a glass and an occasional computer on the white draped table. Can hotel living really be this bland.?
....tune in next Tuesday and I'll let you know.
I’ve just been deep in the Colombian tayrona jungle for a week, meeting stone age people
And before that I was in the Antioquian forests, taking ayahuasca, with shamans,
But sure. I only ever post photos from banal hotels
I'll be there Friday (Terraforming Mars) and Saturday (Ark Nova). I'm retiring from my day job in 6 months and trying to avoid entirely filling my time with politics, tempting thought that always is.
On the other hand, I'm standing for Labour's National Executive Committee, and trying for an Open Labour endorsement, i.e. non-factional left of centre (like Ann Black).
Best of luck; very much hope you get onto the NEC, and that your party (which I don't usually vote for) wins the election.
My Labour contacts here on east Wight clearly think that Labour HQ is up to dirty tricks or excessive control-freakery when it comes to the parliamentary selection here. Despite the possibility of an imminent election, the local party is being blocked from selecting a candidate, to the extent that potentially strong local candidates are withdrawing from the fray. My guess is that the politburo is hanging onto the seat as one which, under Labour rules, it can parachute somebody under a promise in at the last minute, since once the election is called, their local parties lose any power to decide who their candidate is. Cf. my so far unpublished book telling the story of how I was personally responsible for Alan Johnson entering Parliament back in 1997…
Under current polls East Wight is a narrow Lab win.
@bigjohnowls can you please explain why Keir Starmer is 20 points ahead and why Jeremy Corbyn who I supported was not able to achieve the same thing. Would a more palatable leader offering the same policies have done better in your view?
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
I know you’re scotch and you have exceptionally low standards but surely even in Scotland 1 hour of sun on a 10C maximum day otherwise dominated by cloud and cold rain does not constitute “a sunny day”. Does it?
😶
4°C, heavy rain, "feels like" -1°C
I’m in 32C, hot sun, “feels like” 43C - the exact opposite
It’s too hot but I nonetheless prefer it to yours, if am being blunt
The weather over the Easter weekend in London looks decent, a bit of sun, the odd shower (low totals). Stop whining.
I've booked for a week in Seville over Easter. leaving on Good Friday. I was told its always hot and sunny in Seville. Looking forward to it.
Here is the latest forecast for Seville over the weekend.
I’ve been to Seville once, in November a few years ago. Chucked it down every single day.
Baghdad just had a YEAR's worth of rain in 24 hrs, per Al Jazeera.
Would I be right to assume that some PB punters aren't that well acquainted with Blackpool? I can see ReFUK doing really well.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
You used to be able to get a cheap B and B room in Blackpool for Tory (and Labour) conferences which even students could afford. Plus enjoy some bracing sea air after the debates and speeches before the evening bars.
Now you have to spend a fortune for some corporate soulless hotel room in Manchester or Birmingham if you want to attend a party conference. One thing that could do something to stop even further decline in Blackpool is to have some party conferences in seaside resorts again!
So in summary, the Tory solution to a town which is run down, squalid, dirty and poor is to hold Tory Party conference there for part of 1 week. What about the other 51 weeks?
Well Tory conference brought in thousands of delegates for that week, many of them wealthy retirees or well paid City workers from London and filled up every b and b in town.
It probably brought in more revenue to Blackpool than the rest of the year combined, except for high summer tourist season to the Pleasure Beach.
The only other solution would be a massive tax on flights to Spain, so more UK holidaymakers can only afford to take their annual holiday at the seaside in Blackpool rather than the Costas. However doubt that would play well beyond Blackpool
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
I know you’re scotch and you have exceptionally low standards but surely even in Scotland 1 hour of sun on a 10C maximum day otherwise dominated by cloud and cold rain does not constitute “a sunny day”. Does it?
😶
4°C, heavy rain, "feels like" -1°C
I’m in 32C, hot sun, “feels like” 43C - the exact opposite
It’s too hot but I nonetheless prefer it to yours, if am being blunt
The weather over the Easter weekend in London looks decent, a bit of sun, the odd shower (low totals). Stop whining.
I've booked for a week in Seville over Easter. leaving on Good Friday. I was told its always hot and sunny in Seville. Looking forward to it.
Here is the latest forecast for Seville over the weekend.
The only time I’ve ever been to Seville was around the end of March, and it was actually quite chilly most of the time. The fragrance of orange blossom in the streets was wonderful though.
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
I think she's their biggest asset. A Labour politician talking some degree of economic sense - it's not happened before.
A Labour politician advocating for near-total replication of Conservative economic policy. If being not actually a Tory is enough for most people then it won't make any difference. If a significant fraction of the electorate starts to ask awkward questions about what's going to change besides the occupants of ministerial limos, then they're in trouble.
Change the record.
Oh, it's the comment police again. Take a running jump.
Before going on to more important matters, if you want to moan about the weather, join me over on netweather where I post regular analysis of the forecast charts - it's a bit like polling the atmosphere.
The day time maximum for London in early April is 13c - we got to 12c today and we'll be below average to the weekend. If the low pressure ends up to the west we'll draw up some warmer air from the south which will kick off some hefty showers. Ideally, if it's to the south and it's a nice strong easterly up the river, we'll get a sinking in the Boat Race on Saturday.
Back to more important matters, the R&W data shows only 7% DK among men but 17% among women which may or may not be of significance. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 48% loyal, 23% Reform and 21% Labour. Once you strip out the DKs and weight on likelihood to vote, men have Labour ahead 39-25 while women have Labour ahead 47-18. Both groups have Reform on 14% so not sure how this ties in with other poll findings.
On to Deltapoll and men have Labour ahead 40-26 (Reform on 14) while with women it's 49-25 with Reform on just 7%. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 60% loyal, 17% Reform and 14% Labour which might explain the discrepency in the Conservative number between the two polls.
Among those aged over 65, a group which voted 64-17 in December 2019, Deltapoll have the Conservatives leading 40-30 with Reform on 14 which is a swing of 18.5% and R&W have Labour ahead 34-27 with Reform on 18 which would be a 28% swing.
My guess would be the highest Reform vote shares will be in Conservative held seats with a higher than average proportion of voters over 65.
Currently the Tories and Reform are on a combined share of 35%, - 23% Tory, 12% Reform.
In order for Reform to win a seat. it needs to increase its share to 18%. Then it wins two seats - Boston and Skegness, and Clacton.
If the 6% increase in Reform share is at the expense of the Tories, then the Tory tally drops to 37 seats. (LibDems on 59). Now that would be interesting.
On those numbers the LD seats under FPTP would almost exactly match the seats they won with PR. Labour would win a massive 226 seats more with FPTP however than they would get with PR based on their voteshare.
Yet the Tories would be 73 seats short of the seats they would win with PR based on their voteshare and Reform would be a massive 115 seats short of the seats they would win with PR under FPTP.
The more Reform splits the Tory vote then the more FPTP benefits the liberal left not the right. Indeed if that becomes a pattern it should be the right then pushing for PR not the left
Since the Tories have been adamantly against PR since the year dot, would that not be a tad cynical on their part?
Before going on to more important matters, if you want to moan about the weather, join me over on netweather where I post regular analysis of the forecast charts - it's a bit like polling the atmosphere.
The day time maximum for London in early April is 13c - we got to 12c today and we'll be below average to the weekend. If the low pressure ends up to the west we'll draw up some warmer air from the south which will kick off some hefty showers. Ideally, if it's to the south and it's a nice strong easterly up the river, we'll get a sinking in the Boat Race on Saturday.
Back to more important matters, the R&W data shows only 7% DK among men but 17% among women which may or may not be of significance. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 48% loyal, 23% Reform and 21% Labour. Once you strip out the DKs and weight on likelihood to vote, men have Labour ahead 39-25 while women have Labour ahead 47-18. Both groups have Reform on 14% so not sure how this ties in with other poll findings.
On to Deltapoll and men have Labour ahead 40-26 (Reform on 14) while with women it's 49-25 with Reform on just 7%. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 60% loyal, 17% Reform and 14% Labour which might explain the discrepency in the Conservative number between the two polls.
Among those aged over 65, a group which voted 64-17 in December 2019, Deltapoll have the Conservatives leading 40-30 with Reform on 14 which is a swing of 18.5% and R&W have Labour ahead 34-27 with Reform on 18 which would be a 28% swing.
My guess would be the highest Reform vote shares will be in Conservative held seats with a higher than average proportion of voters over 65.
Currently the Tories and Reform are on a combined share of 35%, - 23% Tory, 12% Reform.
In order for Reform to win a seat. it needs to increase its share to 18%. Then it wins two seats - Boston and Skegness, and Clacton.
If the 6% increase in Reform share is at the expense of the Tories, then the Tory tally drops to 37 seats. (LibDems on 59). Now that would be interesting.
On those numbers the LD seats under FPTP would almost exactly match the seats they won with PR. Labour would win a massive 226 seats more with FPTP however than they would get with PR based on their voteshare.
Yet the Tories would be 73 seats short of the seats they would win with PR based on their voteshare and Reform would be a massive 115 seats short of the seats they would win with PR under FPTP.
The more Reform splits the Tory vote then the more FPTP benefits the liberal left not the right. Indeed if that becomes a pattern it should be the right then pushing for PR not the left
If only you and your ilk had come to this realisation when it might have made a difference.
FPTP benefited the Tories when they were on 40%+ and could win big majorities and the right is united, until we get back to that however and if Reform remains 10%+ more rightwingers might back PR. Farage already does
Before going on to more important matters, if you want to moan about the weather, join me over on netweather where I post regular analysis of the forecast charts - it's a bit like polling the atmosphere.
The day time maximum for London in early April is 13c - we got to 12c today and we'll be below average to the weekend. If the low pressure ends up to the west we'll draw up some warmer air from the south which will kick off some hefty showers. Ideally, if it's to the south and it's a nice strong easterly up the river, we'll get a sinking in the Boat Race on Saturday.
Back to more important matters, the R&W data shows only 7% DK among men but 17% among women which may or may not be of significance. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 48% loyal, 23% Reform and 21% Labour. Once you strip out the DKs and weight on likelihood to vote, men have Labour ahead 39-25 while women have Labour ahead 47-18. Both groups have Reform on 14% so not sure how this ties in with other poll findings.
On to Deltapoll and men have Labour ahead 40-26 (Reform on 14) while with women it's 49-25 with Reform on just 7%. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 60% loyal, 17% Reform and 14% Labour which might explain the discrepency in the Conservative number between the two polls.
Among those aged over 65, a group which voted 64-17 in December 2019, Deltapoll have the Conservatives leading 40-30 with Reform on 14 which is a swing of 18.5% and R&W have Labour ahead 34-27 with Reform on 18 which would be a 28% swing.
My guess would be the highest Reform vote shares will be in Conservative held seats with a higher than average proportion of voters over 65.
Currently the Tories and Reform are on a combined share of 35%, - 23% Tory, 12% Reform.
In order for Reform to win a seat. it needs to increase its share to 18%. Then it wins two seats - Boston and Skegness, and Clacton.
If the 6% increase in Reform share is at the expense of the Tories, then the Tory tally drops to 37 seats. (LibDems on 59). Now that would be interesting.
On those numbers the LD seats under FPTP would almost exactly match the seats they won with PR. Labour would win a massive 226 seats more with FPTP however than they would get with PR based on their voteshare.
Yet the Tories would be 73 seats short of the seats they would win with PR based on their voteshare and Reform would be a massive 115 seats short of the seats they would win with PR under FPTP.
The more Reform splits the Tory vote then the more FPTP benefits the liberal left not the right. Indeed if that becomes a pattern it should be the right then pushing for PR not the left
Since the Tories have been adamantly against PR since the year dot, would that not be a tad cynical on their part?
The Tories can be ruthlessly cynical if they need to be to boost themselves
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The outlook is giving moo until the 5-6th of April.
“One of the most hideously vile, tediously unvaried and unappealing months of all time [March 2024]. Absolutely nothing decent on offer. Barely any sun, no convection, hardly any warmth, a couple of frosts and no snow. Just perpetual grey skies with repulsively chilly days and disgusting mild nights. Yet again conditions worse than a bad November 🤮
Makes last March seem brilliant by comparison. I spent the end of that revolting month in London and the weather was so foul it beggared belief. Should be a long long time before anything as repellent as that would disgrace the final third of the month but I am off there again tomorrow and not only does it look every bit as rank as last year but if anything even worse. It would seem 6am on Saturday is the only time there will be any sun 🤬
The bare minimum you could expect was a couple of reasonable days in a week. Now it's just week after week of relentless cloud and rain. The UK climate truly has been relegated into the lowest tier of utter garbage alongside bleak sparsely populated outposts like the Faeroes, Falklands and Aleutians. A poisonous dump of a country unfit for human habitation 🤢
"UK".
We've had a fair bit of sun up north. Admittedly by my standards, but I did wonder on a couplke of occasions if I should have put on some factor50 before leaving the house.
Richardabdn as the name suggests lives in Aberdeen and spends most of his time moaning about Aberdeen weather.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton Labour leads by 20%.
Westminster Voting Intention (24 March):
Labour 42% (-5) Conservative 22% (+1) Reform UK 14% (–) Liberal Democrat 12% (+4) Green 6% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 17 March
Tories do seem to have lost some ground to Reform of late, a point or two swing perhaps, labour are closer to 40 than high 40s now overall I think. My current reading is Labour will get a 2001 type return in vote % with the scale of the Tory defeat determined by 1) how far Reforms VI translates into nationwide support (if they get 14% nationally there is no way they will get zero seats for example) 2) how well they hold the Blue Wall and rural seats
I think a result of 41 29 LD 11 Reform 9 Green 4 or thereabouts is quite likely
I think SKS ends up with fewer votes and a smaller % of the vote than 2017 (12.8m & 40%)
Ah yes, and how was the Corbyn administration? Could you remind me of some of their achievements?
I don't actually think our politicians are worse now they have ever been. I suspect the people who laud the giants of the past would find if those giants were functioning in the days of social media and 24 hours news they would actually be shown to be as flawed as our current lot. I just think politicians in general have always been a bit crap but we are only just getting to see behind the curtain as the wizard was revealed in Oz
I think you’re right. The old masters are always treated with reverence, but the lack of social media in the past must have meant they got away with all sorts.
The Tory transport Minister responsible for implementing the Beeching Rail cuts having shares in a road building firm was a bit of a case in point.
Would I be right to assume that some PB punters aren't that well acquainted with Blackpool? I can see ReFUK doing really well.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
You used to be able to get a cheap B and B room in Blackpool for Tory (and Labour) conferences which even students could afford. Plus enjoy some bracing sea air after the debates and speeches before the evening bars.
Now you have to spend a fortune for some corporate soulless hotel room in Manchester or Birmingham if you want to attend a party conference. One thing that could do something to stop even further decline in Blackpool is to have some party conferences in seaside resorts again!
So in summary, the Tory solution to a town which is run down, squalid, dirty and poor is to hold Tory Party conference there for part of 1 week. What about the other 51 weeks?
Turn the Conservative Conference into a never ending event?
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The outlook is giving moo until the 5-6th of April.
“One of the most hideously vile, tediously unvaried and unappealing months of all time [March 2024]. Absolutely nothing decent on offer. Barely any sun, no convection, hardly any warmth, a couple of frosts and no snow. Just perpetual grey skies with repulsively chilly days and disgusting mild nights. Yet again conditions worse than a bad November 🤮
Makes last March seem brilliant by comparison. I spent the end of that revolting month in London and the weather was so foul it beggared belief. Should be a long long time before anything as repellent as that would disgrace the final third of the month but I am off there again tomorrow and not only does it look every bit as rank as last year but if anything even worse. It would seem 6am on Saturday is the only time there will be any sun 🤬
The bare minimum you could expect was a couple of reasonable days in a week. Now it's just week after week of relentless cloud and rain. The UK climate truly has been relegated into the lowest tier of utter garbage alongside bleak sparsely populated outposts like the Faeroes, Falklands and Aleutians. A poisonous dump of a country unfit for human habitation 🤢
"UK".
We've had a fair bit of sun up north. Admittedly by my standards, but I did wonder on a couplke of occasions if I should have put on some factor50 before leaving the house.
Richardabdn as the name suggests lives in Aberdeen and spends most of his time moaning about Aberdeen weather.
One of the major flaws of that forum is the preponderance of posters from Aberdeen (weirdly!) who therefore give a completely skewed interpretation of the weather based upon prevailing conditions in Northeast Scotland!
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton Labour leads by 20%.
Westminster Voting Intention (24 March):
Labour 42% (-5) Conservative 22% (+1) Reform UK 14% (–) Liberal Democrat 12% (+4) Green 6% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 17 March
Tories do seem to have lost some ground to Reform of late, a point or two swing perhaps, labour are closer to 40 than high 40s now overall I think. My current reading is Labour will get a 2001 type return in vote % with the scale of the Tory defeat determined by 1) how far Reforms VI translates into nationwide support (if they get 14% nationally there is no way they will get zero seats for example) 2) how well they hold the Blue Wall and rural seats
I think a result of 41 29 LD 11 Reform 9 Green 4 or thereabouts is quite likely
I think SKS ends up with fewer votes and a smaller % of the vote than 2017 (12.8m & 40%)
Ah yes, and how was the Corbyn administration? Could you remind me of some of their achievements?
I don't actually think our politicians are worse now they have ever been. I suspect the people who laud the giants of the past would find if those giants were functioning in the days of social media and 24 hours news they would actually be shown to be as flawed as our current lot. I just think politicians in general have always been a bit crap but we are only just getting to see behind the curtain as the wizard was revealed in Oz
I think you’re right. The old masters are always treated with reverence, but the lack of social media in the past must have meant they got away with all sorts.
The Tory transport Minister responsible for implementing the Beeching Rail cuts having shares in a road building firm was a bit of a case in point.
Would I be right to assume that some PB punters aren't that well acquainted with Blackpool? I can see ReFUK doing really well.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
You used to be able to get a cheap B and B room in Blackpool for Tory (and Labour) conferences which even students could afford. Plus enjoy some bracing sea air after the debates and speeches before the evening bars.
Now you have to spend a fortune for some corporate soulless hotel room in Manchester or Birmingham if you want to attend a party conference. One thing that could do something to stop even further decline in Blackpool is to have some party conferences in seaside resorts again!
So in summary, the Tory solution to a town which is run down, squalid, dirty and poor is to hold Tory Party conference there for part of 1 week. What about the other 51 weeks?
Turn the Conservative Conference into a never ending event?
And we all have to go, in a rota basis.
This is making me think of a return of "It's a Knock-Out". Rishi, Boris, Liz working in sweet harmony for the good of the country. Dressed in chiffon and tin-foil and jousting with outsized cotton-buds. The evil Starmer throwing (vegan, non-specific organic flavour) jelly in their way.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The outlook is giving moo until the 5-6th of April.
“One of the most hideously vile, tediously unvaried and unappealing months of all time [March 2024]. Absolutely nothing decent on offer. Barely any sun, no convection, hardly any warmth, a couple of frosts and no snow. Just perpetual grey skies with repulsively chilly days and disgusting mild nights. Yet again conditions worse than a bad November 🤮
Makes last March seem brilliant by comparison. I spent the end of that revolting month in London and the weather was so foul it beggared belief. Should be a long long time before anything as repellent as that would disgrace the final third of the month but I am off there again tomorrow and not only does it look every bit as rank as last year but if anything even worse. It would seem 6am on Saturday is the only time there will be any sun 🤬
The bare minimum you could expect was a couple of reasonable days in a week. Now it's just week after week of relentless cloud and rain. The UK climate truly has been relegated into the lowest tier of utter garbage alongside bleak sparsely populated outposts like the Faeroes, Falklands and Aleutians. A poisonous dump of a country unfit for human habitation 🤢
"UK".
We've had a fair bit of sun up north. Admittedly by my standards, but I did wonder on a couplke of occasions if I should have put on some factor50 before leaving the house.
Richardabdn as the name suggests lives in Aberdeen and spends most of his time moaning about Aberdeen weather.
One of the major flaws of that forum is the preponderance of posters from Aberdeen (weirdly!) who therefore give a completely skewed interpretation of the weather based upon prevailing conditions in Northeast Scotland!
Quite the contrast with pb, where we seemingly do have a pretty good distribution across the nation (save perhaps NI and West Wales, perhaps Cornwall).
Would I be right to assume that some PB punters aren't that well acquainted with Blackpool? I can see ReFUK doing really well.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
You used to be able to get a cheap B and B room in Blackpool for Tory (and Labour) conferences which even students could afford. Plus enjoy some bracing sea air after the debates and speeches before the evening bars.
Now you have to spend a fortune for some corporate soulless hotel room in Manchester or Birmingham if you want to attend a party conference. One thing that could do something to stop even further decline in Blackpool is to have some party conferences in seaside resorts again!
So in summary, the Tory solution to a town which is run down, squalid, dirty and poor is to hold Tory Party conference there for part of 1 week. What about the other 51 weeks?
Turn the Conservative Conference into a never ending event?
And we all have to go, in a rota basis.
Keeping them all there, safely out of the way, for 52 weeks a year would be better still.
Before going on to more important matters, if you want to moan about the weather, join me over on netweather where I post regular analysis of the forecast charts - it's a bit like polling the atmosphere.
The day time maximum for London in early April is 13c - we got to 12c today and we'll be below average to the weekend. If the low pressure ends up to the west we'll draw up some warmer air from the south which will kick off some hefty showers. Ideally, if it's to the south and it's a nice strong easterly up the river, we'll get a sinking in the Boat Race on Saturday.
Back to more important matters, the R&W data shows only 7% DK among men but 17% among women which may or may not be of significance. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 48% loyal, 23% Reform and 21% Labour. Once you strip out the DKs and weight on likelihood to vote, men have Labour ahead 39-25 while women have Labour ahead 47-18. Both groups have Reform on 14% so not sure how this ties in with other poll findings.
On to Deltapoll and men have Labour ahead 40-26 (Reform on 14) while with women it's 49-25 with Reform on just 7%. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 60% loyal, 17% Reform and 14% Labour which might explain the discrepency in the Conservative number between the two polls.
Among those aged over 65, a group which voted 64-17 in December 2019, Deltapoll have the Conservatives leading 40-30 with Reform on 14 which is a swing of 18.5% and R&W have Labour ahead 34-27 with Reform on 18 which would be a 28% swing.
My guess would be the highest Reform vote shares will be in Conservative held seats with a higher than average proportion of voters over 65.
Currently the Tories and Reform are on a combined share of 35%, - 23% Tory, 12% Reform.
In order for Reform to win a seat. it needs to increase its share to 18%. Then it wins two seats - Boston and Skegness, and Clacton.
If the 6% increase in Reform share is at the expense of the Tories, then the Tory tally drops to 37 seats. (LibDems on 59). Now that would be interesting.
On those numbers the LD seats under FPTP would almost exactly match the seats they won with PR. Labour would win a massive 226 seats more with FPTP however than they would get with PR based on their voteshare.
Yet the Tories would be 73 seats short of the seats they would win with PR based on their voteshare and Reform would be a massive 115 seats short of the seats they would win with PR under FPTP.
The more Reform splits the Tory vote then the more FPTP benefits the liberal left not the right. Indeed if that becomes a pattern it should be the right then pushing for PR not the left
Since the Tories have been adamantly against PR since the year dot, would that not be a tad cynical on their part?
The Tories can be ruthlessly cynical if they need to be to boost themselves
Really? I hadn't noticed. I wish someone had pointed this out earlier.
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
I think she's their biggest asset. A Labour politician talking some degree of economic sense - it's not happened before.
A Labour politician advocating for near-total replication of Conservative economic policy. If being not actually a Tory is enough for most people then it won't make any difference. If a significant fraction of the electorate starts to ask awkward questions about what's going to change besides the occupants of ministerial limos, then they're in trouble.
Is that really what you took from her Mais lecture? 90 minutes of policy that put her significantly to the left of Blair and Brown.
she is being realistic enough with what they will inherit in terms of already sky high taxation and debt (with crap public services to boot) - usually the tories can argue they get 2 out of 3 right but definitely none right and therefore no hope . Labour know they can risk the odd seat in order to not over promise so make it easier in power
The danger for Starmer/Reeves is they end up like Francois Hollande, disappointing their core supporters with MOR policies, while their transactional voters drift away after the novelty wears off. Hollande ended up so unpopular he didn't stand for re-election. Its what happens to the uncharismatic. I think it could happen to Starmer if the Tories are led in opposition by someone with a bit of oomph - and who is not a total bampot in the Truss/Braverman model. They really need Penny to hold on to her seat - she could prove a formidable opponent.
To be absolutely fair to Labour, they're saying some of the right things and one has to assume that they're scared of traditional Tory voters running away screaming at the first sign of anything that might frighten them, which is why they've gone out of their way to reassure almost everyone who still has any money that theu won't be asked to part with more of it. But if the plan is to plead for time to fix the economy through structural reform, whilst leaving the majority of taxes frozen where they are (which implies further cuts to public spending) then they're playing a dangerous game. It involves pleading for time with an exhausted public, with promises of jam tomorrow, and no guarantees that the jam will actually be delivered either.
I don't think that Labour is in any medium term danger of getting flushed down the toilet like the French Socialists. Even if there's a strong Tory revival in opposition, there's no significant challenger party capable of outflanking Labour from the left. But if they want two or three terms to set things to rights then real progress needs to be made in the first. Where does this come from without a lot more money?
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The outlook is giving moo until the 5-6th of April.
“One of the most hideously vile, tediously unvaried and unappealing months of all time [March 2024]. Absolutely nothing decent on offer. Barely any sun, no convection, hardly any warmth, a couple of frosts and no snow. Just perpetual grey skies with repulsively chilly days and disgusting mild nights. Yet again conditions worse than a bad November 🤮
Makes last March seem brilliant by comparison. I spent the end of that revolting month in London and the weather was so foul it beggared belief. Should be a long long time before anything as repellent as that would disgrace the final third of the month but I am off there again tomorrow and not only does it look every bit as rank as last year but if anything even worse. It would seem 6am on Saturday is the only time there will be any sun 🤬
The bare minimum you could expect was a couple of reasonable days in a week. Now it's just week after week of relentless cloud and rain. The UK climate truly has been relegated into the lowest tier of utter garbage alongside bleak sparsely populated outposts like the Faeroes, Falklands and Aleutians. A poisonous dump of a country unfit for human habitation 🤢
"UK".
We've had a fair bit of sun up north. Admittedly by my standards, but I did wonder on a couplke of occasions if I should have put on some factor50 before leaving the house.
Richardabdn as the name suggests lives in Aberdeen and spends most of his time moaning about Aberdeen weather.
One of the major flaws of that forum is the preponderance of posters from Aberdeen (weirdly!) who therefore give a completely skewed interpretation of the weather based upon prevailing conditions in Northeast Scotland!
Quite the contrast with pb, where we seemingly do have a pretty good distribution across the nation (save perhaps NI and West Wales, perhaps Cornwall).
@Leon is a Cornishman TBF (although resident in London) as is @Pagan2 I believe?
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The outlook is giving moo until the 5-6th of April.
“One of the most hideously vile, tediously unvaried and unappealing months of all time [March 2024]. Absolutely nothing decent on offer. Barely any sun, no convection, hardly any warmth, a couple of frosts and no snow. Just perpetual grey skies with repulsively chilly days and disgusting mild nights. Yet again conditions worse than a bad November 🤮
Makes last March seem brilliant by comparison. I spent the end of that revolting month in London and the weather was so foul it beggared belief. Should be a long long time before anything as repellent as that would disgrace the final third of the month but I am off there again tomorrow and not only does it look every bit as rank as last year but if anything even worse. It would seem 6am on Saturday is the only time there will be any sun 🤬
The bare minimum you could expect was a couple of reasonable days in a week. Now it's just week after week of relentless cloud and rain. The UK climate truly has been relegated into the lowest tier of utter garbage alongside bleak sparsely populated outposts like the Faeroes, Falklands and Aleutians. A poisonous dump of a country unfit for human habitation 🤢
"UK".
We've had a fair bit of sun up north. Admittedly by my standards, but I did wonder on a couplke of occasions if I should have put on some factor50 before leaving the house.
Richardabdn as the name suggests lives in Aberdeen and spends most of his time moaning about Aberdeen weather.
One of the major flaws of that forum is the preponderance of posters from Aberdeen (weirdly!) who therefore give a completely skewed interpretation of the weather based upon prevailing conditions in Northeast Scotland!
Quite the contrast with pb, where we seemingly do have a pretty good distribution across the nation (save perhaps NI and West Wales, perhaps Cornwall).
@yokel and a nationalist (green something?) Occasionally post from NI.
Would I be right to assume that some PB punters aren't that well acquainted with Blackpool? I can see ReFUK doing really well.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
You used to be able to get a cheap B and B room in Blackpool for Tory (and Labour) conferences which even students could afford. Plus enjoy some bracing sea air after the debates and speeches before the evening bars.
Now you have to spend a fortune for some corporate soulless hotel room in Manchester or Birmingham if you want to attend a party conference. One thing that could do something to stop even further decline in Blackpool is to have some party conferences in seaside resorts again!
So in summary, the Tory solution to a town which is run down, squalid, dirty and poor is to hold Tory Party conference there for part of 1 week. What about the other 51 weeks?
Turn the Conservative Conference into a never ending event?
And we all have to go, in a rota basis.
This is making me think of a return of "It's a Knock-Out". Rishi, Boris, Liz working in sweet harmony for the good of the country. Dressed in chiffon and tin-foil and jousting with outsized cotton-buds. The evil Starmer throwing (vegan, non-specific organic flavour) jelly in their way.
What japes!
We'd need someone to do the laughing, and Stuart Hall is doubly unavailable.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The outlook is giving moo until the 5-6th of April.
“One of the most hideously vile, tediously unvaried and unappealing months of all time [March 2024]. Absolutely nothing decent on offer. Barely any sun, no convection, hardly any warmth, a couple of frosts and no snow. Just perpetual grey skies with repulsively chilly days and disgusting mild nights. Yet again conditions worse than a bad November 🤮
Makes last March seem brilliant by comparison. I spent the end of that revolting month in London and the weather was so foul it beggared belief. Should be a long long time before anything as repellent as that would disgrace the final third of the month but I am off there again tomorrow and not only does it look every bit as rank as last year but if anything even worse. It would seem 6am on Saturday is the only time there will be any sun 🤬
The bare minimum you could expect was a couple of reasonable days in a week. Now it's just week after week of relentless cloud and rain. The UK climate truly has been relegated into the lowest tier of utter garbage alongside bleak sparsely populated outposts like the Faeroes, Falklands and Aleutians. A poisonous dump of a country unfit for human habitation 🤢
"UK".
We've had a fair bit of sun up north. Admittedly by my standards, but I did wonder on a couplke of occasions if I should have put on some factor50 before leaving the house.
Richardabdn as the name suggests lives in Aberdeen and spends most of his time moaning about Aberdeen weather.
One of the major flaws of that forum is the preponderance of posters from Aberdeen (weirdly!) who therefore give a completely skewed interpretation of the weather based upon prevailing conditions in Northeast Scotland!
Quite the contrast with pb, where we seemingly do have a pretty good distribution across the nation (save perhaps NI and West Wales, perhaps Cornwall).
@Leon is a Cornishman TBF (although resident in London) as is @Pagan2 I believe?
Would I be right to assume that some PB punters aren't that well acquainted with Blackpool? I can see ReFUK doing really well.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
You used to be able to get a cheap B and B room in Blackpool for Tory (and Labour) conferences which even students could afford. Plus enjoy some bracing sea air after the debates and speeches before the evening bars.
Now you have to spend a fortune for some corporate soulless hotel room in Manchester or Birmingham if you want to attend a party conference. One thing that could do something to stop even further decline in Blackpool is to have some party conferences in seaside resorts again!
So in summary, the Tory solution to a town which is run down, squalid, dirty and poor is to hold Tory Party conference there for part of 1 week. What about the other 51 weeks?
Turn the Conservative Conference into a never ending event?
And we all have to go, in a rota basis.
This is making me think of a return of "It's a Knock-Out". Rishi, Boris, Liz working in sweet harmony for the good of the country. Dressed in chiffon and tin-foil and jousting with outsized cotton-buds. The evil Starmer throwing (vegan, non-specific organic flavour) jelly in their way.
What japes!
We'd need someone to do the laughing, and Stuart Hall is doubly unavailable.
Ed Davey doesn't have much else on. He must be able to do a loud chuckle, if not anything else?
The Tories will absolutely go into opposition and some point back PR and I expect reversing Brexit too
They might as well go republican and abolish the Establishment of the C of E. They seem to have dumped everything else - sound money, balance of payments, defence of the realm, rule of law etc. etc.
Would I be right to assume that some PB punters aren't that well acquainted with Blackpool? I can see ReFUK doing really well.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
You used to be able to get a cheap B and B room in Blackpool for Tory (and Labour) conferences which even students could afford. Plus enjoy some bracing sea air after the debates and speeches before the evening bars.
Now you have to spend a fortune for some corporate soulless hotel room in Manchester or Birmingham if you want to attend a party conference. One thing that could do something to stop even further decline in Blackpool is to have some party conferences in seaside resorts again!
So in summary, the Tory solution to a town which is run down, squalid, dirty and poor is to hold Tory Party conference there for part of 1 week. What about the other 51 weeks?
Turn the Conservative Conference into a never ending event?
And we all have to go, in a rota basis.
The Levelling Up Minister making a speech in Blackpool would be a tad ironic.
Would I be right to assume that some PB punters aren't that well acquainted with Blackpool? I can see ReFUK doing really well.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
You used to be able to get a cheap B and B room in Blackpool for Tory (and Labour) conferences which even students could afford. Plus enjoy some bracing sea air after the debates and speeches before the evening bars.
Now you have to spend a fortune for some corporate soulless hotel room in Manchester or Birmingham if you want to attend a party conference. One thing that could do something to stop even further decline in Blackpool is to have some party conferences in seaside resorts again!
So in summary, the Tory solution to a town which is run down, squalid, dirty and poor is to hold Tory Party conference there for part of 1 week. What about the other 51 weeks?
Turn the Conservative Conference into a never ending event?
And we all have to go, in a rota basis.
The Levelling Up Minister making a speech in Blackpool would be a tad ironic.
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
I think she's their biggest asset. A Labour politician talking some degree of economic sense - it's not happened before.
A Labour politician advocating for near-total replication of Conservative economic policy. If being not actually a Tory is enough for most people then it won't make any difference. If a significant fraction of the electorate starts to ask awkward questions about what's going to change besides the occupants of ministerial limos, then they're in trouble.
Is that really what you took from her Mais lecture? 90 minutes of policy that put her significantly to the left of Blair and Brown.
@pigeon is a more articulate manifestation of @BigJohnOwls. Same unthinking, uninformed opinions albeit using bigger words.
Reform is not a complete substitute, I am afraid, for redistribution. You can find the money to at least make a start on repairing the state and dealing with the vast problems of ill health and impoverishment in this country through growing the old pie or taking slices off some people to give to others - and there's precious little sign of rampant growth magically reappearing any time soon, whereas the need exists now.
We are dealing here with an Opposition that won't deploy wealth taxes, or raise taxes on residential property, capital gains or inheritances. They have, of course, promised an assortment of relatively modest revenue raising measures (two of which Hunt has nicked) but these are hardly transformative.
If, when the manifesto arrives, it contains stronger measures (more taxation on assets, a watering down of the triple lock for richer pensioners, basically anything that will result in significantly increased spending on people and in areas where it is sorely needed, then I'll change my tune. Right now, this doesn't look as if it will be forthcoming, does it?
Having political principle, winning elections and running countries are three very different arts. After 1992 and 2017 no-one who wants to win is going to set out anything in a manifesto that can be used against them in a populist way There is no point in blaming the politicians. It's the voters who get to vote, and they decide the rules.
As to what Labour would do, they are going to set out for a long view approach, with a few retail gimmicks like VAT on private schools. People should look for the silences about tax. They are not going to set out tax rises except for very specific groups like oil and gas outfits and Russian oligarchs, along with St Trinian's parents. But they may not absolutely rule out, say, mansion taxes etc, council tax revaluation (brave) etc. If they have any sense they will say something very general about fair taxes, broadest shoulders, meeting requirements etc and leave it at that.
The Tories will absolutely go into opposition and some point back PR and I expect reversing Brexit too
They might as well go republican and abolish the Establishment of the C of E. They seem to have dumped everything else - sound money, balance of payments, defence of the realm, rule of law etc. etc.
They've clung onto the 'buy apples by the pound' thing though. All is not lost!
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The outlook is giving moo until the 5-6th of April.
“One of the most hideously vile, tediously unvaried and unappealing months of all time [March 2024]. Absolutely nothing decent on offer. Barely any sun, no convection, hardly any warmth, a couple of frosts and no snow. Just perpetual grey skies with repulsively chilly days and disgusting mild nights. Yet again conditions worse than a bad November 🤮
Makes last March seem brilliant by comparison. I spent the end of that revolting month in London and the weather was so foul it beggared belief. Should be a long long time before anything as repellent as that would disgrace the final third of the month but I am off there again tomorrow and not only does it look every bit as rank as last year but if anything even worse. It would seem 6am on Saturday is the only time there will be any sun 🤬
The bare minimum you could expect was a couple of reasonable days in a week. Now it's just week after week of relentless cloud and rain. The UK climate truly has been relegated into the lowest tier of utter garbage alongside bleak sparsely populated outposts like the Faeroes, Falklands and Aleutians. A poisonous dump of a country unfit for human habitation 🤢
"UK".
We've had a fair bit of sun up north. Admittedly by my standards, but I did wonder on a couplke of occasions if I should have put on some factor50 before leaving the house.
Richardabdn as the name suggests lives in Aberdeen and spends most of his time moaning about Aberdeen weather.
One of the major flaws of that forum is the preponderance of posters from Aberdeen (weirdly!) who therefore give a completely skewed interpretation of the weather based upon prevailing conditions in Northeast Scotland!
It’s not even got the worst weather of places called Aberdeen, if the Kurt Cobain biographies I’ve read are at all accurate
NEW: The Tories have been forced to delete a Labour attack video about crime in London after it featured a scene showing chaos at Penn Station in ... er New York.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The outlook is giving moo until the 5-6th of April.
“One of the most hideously vile, tediously unvaried and unappealing months of all time [March 2024]. Absolutely nothing decent on offer. Barely any sun, no convection, hardly any warmth, a couple of frosts and no snow. Just perpetual grey skies with repulsively chilly days and disgusting mild nights. Yet again conditions worse than a bad November 🤮
Makes last March seem brilliant by comparison. I spent the end of that revolting month in London and the weather was so foul it beggared belief. Should be a long long time before anything as repellent as that would disgrace the final third of the month but I am off there again tomorrow and not only does it look every bit as rank as last year but if anything even worse. It would seem 6am on Saturday is the only time there will be any sun 🤬
The bare minimum you could expect was a couple of reasonable days in a week. Now it's just week after week of relentless cloud and rain. The UK climate truly has been relegated into the lowest tier of utter garbage alongside bleak sparsely populated outposts like the Faeroes, Falklands and Aleutians. A poisonous dump of a country unfit for human habitation 🤢
"UK".
We've had a fair bit of sun up north. Admittedly by my standards, but I did wonder on a couplke of occasions if I should have put on some factor50 before leaving the house.
Richardabdn as the name suggests lives in Aberdeen and spends most of his time moaning about Aberdeen weather.
One of the major flaws of that forum is the preponderance of posters from Aberdeen (weirdly!) who therefore give a completely skewed interpretation of the weather based upon prevailing conditions in Northeast Scotland!
It’s not even got the worst weather of places called Aberdeen, if the Kurt Cobain biographies I’ve read are at all accurate
I bumped into Kurt Cobain once. He apologised. I warmed to him.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The outlook is giving moo until the 5-6th of April.
“One of the most hideously vile, tediously unvaried and unappealing months of all time [March 2024]. Absolutely nothing decent on offer. Barely any sun, no convection, hardly any warmth, a couple of frosts and no snow. Just perpetual grey skies with repulsively chilly days and disgusting mild nights. Yet again conditions worse than a bad November 🤮
Makes last March seem brilliant by comparison. I spent the end of that revolting month in London and the weather was so foul it beggared belief. Should be a long long time before anything as repellent as that would disgrace the final third of the month but I am off there again tomorrow and not only does it look every bit as rank as last year but if anything even worse. It would seem 6am on Saturday is the only time there will be any sun 🤬
The bare minimum you could expect was a couple of reasonable days in a week. Now it's just week after week of relentless cloud and rain. The UK climate truly has been relegated into the lowest tier of utter garbage alongside bleak sparsely populated outposts like the Faeroes, Falklands and Aleutians. A poisonous dump of a country unfit for human habitation 🤢
"UK".
We've had a fair bit of sun up north. Admittedly by my standards, but I did wonder on a couplke of occasions if I should have put on some factor50 before leaving the house.
Richardabdn as the name suggests lives in Aberdeen and spends most of his time moaning about Aberdeen weather.
One of the major flaws of that forum is the preponderance of posters from Aberdeen (weirdly!) who therefore give a completely skewed interpretation of the weather based upon prevailing conditions in Northeast Scotland!
Quite the contrast with pb, where we seemingly do have a pretty good distribution across the nation (save perhaps NI and West Wales, perhaps Cornwall).
@Leon is a Cornishman TBF (although resident in London) as is @Pagan2 I believe?
Leon no longer counts as Cornish. He is basically a citizen of nowhere (or at least nowhere cold, grey and drizzly…). I don’t think pagan lives in Cornwall either.
Leon no longer counts as Cornish. He is basically a citizen of nowhere (or at least nowhere cold, grey and drizzly…). I don’t think pagan lives in Cornwall either.
A useful reminder that those who say continental europe is sophisticated whilst Britain is Neanderthal are deluded, lying, or both.
As any black Briton on holiday can confirm.
I would think it likely, having seen that interview, that Vinicius Jr will be heading to the Premier League pretty soon. It looks very much like he’s had enough.
Comments
But, Red Wall voters aren't stupid. They have got three parts of sod all to show for his endless ramping about what he is delivering. And a bill for half a billion quid to decontaminate prime land which has accidentally been sold to his mates for 14/6. And they're NOT happy about it.
Labour's candidate is I believe not a mentalist this time, so they should win. Would be a shock if they didn't. FWIW the Tory Mayor I expect to win is Andy Street who seems as level-headed and apolitical as you can get.
Lytham St Annes is more attractive as a beach destination, without all the tat.
Perhaps heightened by the fact that the south has had 2 to 3 times the average rainfall. It's been bad enough up north. But much less over the average and we are at least used to it.
As an added bonus tonight is supposed to be a spectacular aurora. But we haven't seen the sky all day.
It’s too hot but I nonetheless prefer it to yours, if am being blunt
In order for Reform to win a seat. it needs to increase its share to 18%. Then it wins two seats - Boston and Skegness, and Clacton.
If the 6% increase in Reform share is at the expense of the Tories, then the Tory tally drops to 37 seats. (LibDems on 59). Now that would be interesting.
(Great trolling, @TSE!)
But yes, pretty much the whole of the last five or six months has been relentlessly terrible. A constant conveyor belt of Atlantic storm systems. Wind, rain, wind, rain, wind, rain, but mostly wind and rain at the same time. That, at least, seems to have abated somewhat, which is progress. There was even about half an hour of broken sunshine when I went on my day trip today, all sparkling on the river. It looked quite pleasant, when viewed through the windows of a nice warm pub.
Reeves in that respect will be an asset, not because she's got spades of charisma but because she hasn't. She isn't going to create a week's headlines by making a flashy promise that gets loads of coverage but quickly comes unstuck.
Where Labour might have an issue is that Starmer isn't the most natural performer either. Though as he's shown recently when he hits on a theme he truly gets, and that plays to his hinterland, he can be compelling. Plus benefits from relatively low expectations of him personally even while miles ahead in the polls.
For example if there are debates or Neil-style interviews and he has a few human and witty moments and comes across pretty OK, it'd register more positively than might if exactly the same happened and had been built up as 90s Blair Mark II.
https://www.ukgamesexpo.co.uk/
I'll be there Friday (Terraforming Mars) and Saturday (Ark Nova). I'm retiring from my day job in 6 months and trying to avoid entirely filling my time with politics, tempting thought that always is.
On the other hand, I'm standing for Labour's National Executive Committee, and trying for an Open Labour endorsement, i.e. non-factional left of centre (like Ann Black).
fav games
camel up
colt express
werewolf
snakes
skull king
and as a ending party game "so clover" is good
Yet the Tories would be 73 seats short of the seats they would win with PR based on their voteshare and Reform would be a massive 115 seats short of the seats they would win with PR under FPTP.
The more Reform splits the Tory vote then the more FPTP benefits the liberal left not the right. Indeed if that becomes a pattern it should be the right then pushing for PR not the left
But in 2021, he won by a smidgen under 10 points, when that was the national lead for the party. He's got to do an awful lot of swinging to beat the national swing.
https://demos.co.uk/blogs/there-are-three-speeches-in-reeves-mais-lecture-which-one-will-she-govern-with/
https://archive.is/yEuA7
....tune in next Tuesday and I'll let you know.
You can see it coming a mile off. They're going to go around looking for more stuff to cut and blaming it on the Tories. Like a mirror image of 2010. It'll go down like a cup of cold sick.
The newspaper report is here - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/self-censoring-uk-batley-grammar-school-teacher-report-flkpblt7b
Relevant to the Scottish Hate Crime Law and the proposed Irish legislation along the same lines. Interestingly, Varadkar never became Taoiseach after winning a general election, but only by winning a party election, much like our own Tory PMs here. Same with his replacement of course.
It does not make for good governance.
Now you have to spend a fortune for some corporate soulless hotel room in Manchester or Birmingham if you want to attend a party conference. One thing that could do something to stop even further decline in Blackpool is to have some party conferences in seaside resorts again!
Here is the latest forecast for Seville over the weekend.
And before that I was in the Antioquian forests, taking ayahuasca, with shamans,
But sure. I only ever post photos from banal hotels
But yes, it’s been a bit shit. When the sun returns it will be all the sweeter for it. That first proper spring day, clocks gone forward so light until 8 pm. Warm in the afternoon sun, but then the chill creeps in to remind you that it’s not quite time yet to throw on shorts nor cast a clout, whatever that is.
It’s coming.
We've had a fair bit of sun up north. Admittedly by my standards, but I did wonder on a couplke of occasions if I should have put on some factor50 before leaving the house.
We are dealing here with an Opposition that won't deploy wealth taxes, or raise taxes on residential property, capital gains or inheritances. They have, of course, promised an assortment of relatively modest revenue raising measures (two of which Hunt has nicked) but these are hardly transformative.
If, when the manifesto arrives, it contains stronger measures (more taxation on assets, a watering down of the triple lock for richer pensioners, basically anything that will result in significantly increased spending on people and in areas where it is sorely needed, then I'll change my tune. Right now, this doesn't look as if it will be forthcoming, does it?
It probably brought in more revenue to Blackpool than the rest of the year combined, except for high summer tourist season to the Pleasure Beach.
The only other solution would be a massive tax on flights to Spain, so more UK holidaymakers can only afford to take their annual holiday at the seaside in Blackpool rather than the Costas. However doubt that would play well beyond Blackpool
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68614552
Warmonger Levy suspended. ROFL.
And we all have to go, in a rota basis.
Birds of a feather....
https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/13101734/vinicius-junior-brazil-and-real-madrid-star-breaks-down-in-tears-over-racist-abuse-he-suffers-in-spain
What japes!
I don't think that Labour is in any medium term danger of getting flushed down the toilet like the French Socialists. Even if there's a strong Tory revival in opposition, there's no significant challenger party capable of outflanking Labour from the left. But if they want two or three terms to set things to rights then real progress needs to be made in the first. Where does this come from without a lot more money?
As to what Labour would do, they are going to set out for a long view approach, with a few retail gimmicks like VAT on private schools. People should look for the silences about tax. They are not going to set out tax rises except for very specific groups like oil and gas outfits and Russian oligarchs, along with St Trinian's parents. But they may not absolutely rule out, say, mansion taxes etc, council tax revaluation (brave) etc. If they have any sense they will say something very general about fair taxes, broadest shoulders, meeting requirements etc and leave it at that.
As any black Briton on holiday can confirm.
NEW: The Tories have been forced to delete a Labour attack video about crime in London after it featured a scene showing chaos at Penn Station in ... er New York.