GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The outlook is giving moo until the 5-6th of April.
“One of the most hideously vile, tediously unvaried and unappealing months of all time [March 2024]. Absolutely nothing decent on offer. Barely any sun, no convection, hardly any warmth, a couple of frosts and no snow. Just perpetual grey skies with repulsively chilly days and disgusting mild nights. Yet again conditions worse than a bad November 🤮
Makes last March seem brilliant by comparison. I spent the end of that revolting month in London and the weather was so foul it beggared belief. Should be a long long time before anything as repellent as that would disgrace the final third of the month but I am off there again tomorrow and not only does it look every bit as rank as last year but if anything even worse. It would seem 6am on Saturday is the only time there will be any sun 🤬
The bare minimum you could expect was a couple of reasonable days in a week. Now it's just week after week of relentless cloud and rain. The UK climate truly has been relegated into the lowest tier of utter garbage alongside bleak sparsely populated outposts like the Faeroes, Falklands and Aleutians. A poisonous dump of a country unfit for human habitation 🤢
"UK".
We've had a fair bit of sun up north. Admittedly by my standards, but I did wonder on a couplke of occasions if I should have put on some factor50 before leaving the house.
You poor southerners have suffered a winter like we poor sods in the West of Scotland suffer every year. No wonder mental health issues are increasing.
Mind you, yesterday was beautiful. Sunny all day. I was able to walk the dogs without a coat for the first time this year, cut the grass, plant potatoes, then sit in the summerhouse with something cool and fizzy. Today has been cold rain all day. Back to gloves and wellies.
Would I be right to assume that some PB punters aren't that well acquainted with Blackpool? I can see ReFUK doing really well.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
You used to be able to get a cheap B and B room in Blackpool for Tory (and Labour) conferences which even students could afford. Plus enjoy some bracing sea air after the debates and speeches before the evening bars.
Now you have to spend a fortune for some corporate soulless hotel room in Manchester or Birmingham if you want to attend a party conference. One thing that could do something to stop even further decline in Blackpool is to have some party conferences in seaside resorts again!
I went once as a delegate to a NUS conference. It was a very interesting experience. If I remember correctly we voted for a Communist as President (Aaronvitch or similar name?) because he was more sensible and likeable than the Labour/Broad Left candidate.
That would be David Aaronovitch. He's certainly not a Communist now. Writes interesting stuff. Eminently sane. Look out for his substack contributions. Particularly good on Israel/Gaza.
The Tories will absolutely go into opposition and some point back PR and I expect reversing Brexit too
I dont see either Tories or Labour backing PR. The system works in their favour as it is.
I strongly disagree. At some point we will have PR.
Why do you think that? FPTP suits the two dominant parties. Also the country rejected a change to a form of PR last time the question was asked.
The country never got offered PR and anyhow it was a different time.
It will not suit them in time and then PR will come in. Maybe even this time if Labour have to negotiate with the Lib Dems
It was offered a form of PR. To say otherwise is denying the facts. I don’t see Labour needing help to get over the line, but even if they did, expect a referendum again.
I'll be there Friday (Terraforming Mars) and Saturday (Ark Nova). I'm retiring from my day job in 6 months and trying to avoid entirely filling my time with politics, tempting thought that always is.
On the other hand, I'm standing for Labour's National Executive Committee, and trying for an Open Labour endorsement, i.e. non-factional left of centre (like Ann Black).
Do they do old school hex based games? Drang Nach Osten etc?
Would I be right to assume that some PB punters aren't that well acquainted with Blackpool? I can see ReFUK doing really well.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
You used to be able to get a cheap B and B room in Blackpool for Tory (and Labour) conferences which even students could afford. Plus enjoy some bracing sea air after the debates and speeches before the evening bars.
Now you have to spend a fortune for some corporate soulless hotel room in Manchester or Birmingham if you want to attend a party conference. One thing that could do something to stop even further decline in Blackpool is to have some party conferences in seaside resorts again!
So in summary, the Tory solution to a town which is run down, squalid, dirty and poor is to hold Tory Party conference there for part of 1 week. What about the other 51 weeks?
Turn the Conservative Conference into a never ending event?
And we all have to go, in a rota basis.
The Levelling Up Minister making a speech in Blackpool would be a tad ironic.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The outlook is giving moo until the 5-6th of April.
“One of the most hideously vile, tediously unvaried and unappealing months of all time [March 2024]. Absolutely nothing decent on offer. Barely any sun, no convection, hardly any warmth, a couple of frosts and no snow. Just perpetual grey skies with repulsively chilly days and disgusting mild nights. Yet again conditions worse than a bad November 🤮
Makes last March seem brilliant by comparison. I spent the end of that revolting month in London and the weather was so foul it beggared belief. Should be a long long time before anything as repellent as that would disgrace the final third of the month but I am off there again tomorrow and not only does it look every bit as rank as last year but if anything even worse. It would seem 6am on Saturday is the only time there will be any sun 🤬
The bare minimum you could expect was a couple of reasonable days in a week. Now it's just week after week of relentless cloud and rain. The UK climate truly has been relegated into the lowest tier of utter garbage alongside bleak sparsely populated outposts like the Faeroes, Falklands and Aleutians. A poisonous dump of a country unfit for human habitation 🤢
"UK".
We've had a fair bit of sun up north. Admittedly by my standards, but I did wonder on a couplke of occasions if I should have put on some factor50 before leaving the house.
You poor southerners have suffered a winter like we poor sods in the West of Scotland suffer every year. No wonder mental health issues are increasing.
Mind you, yesterday was beautiful. Sunny all day. I was able to walk the dogs without a coat for the first time this year, cut the grass, plant potatoes, then sit in the summerhouse with something cool and fizzy. Today has been cold rain all day. Back to gloves and wellies.
Not me, of course, that poor southerner remark, aimed at: but I'm not surprised by your comments. We do benefit from the rain shadow on the East. Very visible on the weather radar.
The Tories will absolutely go into opposition and some point back PR and I expect reversing Brexit too
I dont see either Tories or Labour backing PR. The system works in their favour as it is.
I strongly disagree. At some point we will have PR.
Why do you think that? FPTP suits the two dominant parties. Also the country rejected a change to a form of PR last time the question was asked.
The country never got offered PR and anyhow it was a different time.
It will not suit them in time and then PR will come in. Maybe even this time if Labour have to negotiate with the Lib Dems
It was offered a form of PR. To say otherwise is denying the facts. I don’t see Labour needing help to get over the line, but even if they did, expect a referendum again.
No it wasn't. You are literally denying facts.
I think they may well introduce it without one but anyhow, I think it would be very likely to be voted for.
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
I think she's their biggest asset. A Labour politician talking some degree of economic sense - it's not happened before.
A Labour politician advocating for near-total replication of Conservative economic policy. If being not actually a Tory is enough for most people then it won't make any difference. If a significant fraction of the electorate starts to ask awkward questions about what's going to change besides the occupants of ministerial limos, then they're in trouble.
Is that really what you took from her Mais lecture? 90 minutes of policy that put her significantly to the left of Blair and Brown.
she is being realistic enough with what they will inherit in terms of already sky high taxation and debt (with crap public services to boot) - usually the tories can argue they get 2 out of 3 right but definitely none right and therefore no hope . Labour know they can risk the odd seat in order to not over promise so make it easier in power
The danger for Starmer/Reeves is they end up like Francois Hollande, disappointing their core supporters with MOR policies, while their transactional voters drift away after the novelty wears off. Hollande ended up so unpopular he didn't stand for re-election. Its what happens to the uncharismatic. I think it could happen to Starmer if the Tories are led in opposition by someone with a bit of oomph - and who is not a total bampot in the Truss/Braverman model. They really need Penny to hold on to her seat - she could prove a formidable opponent.
To be absolutely fair to Labour, they're saying some of the right things and one has to assume that they're scared of traditional Tory voters running away screaming at the first sign of anything that might frighten them, which is why they've gone out of their way to reassure almost everyone who still has any money that theu won't be asked to part with more of it. But if the plan is to plead for time to fix the economy through structural reform, whilst leaving the majority of taxes frozen where they are (which implies further cuts to public spending) then they're playing a dangerous game. It involves pleading for time with an exhausted public, with promises of jam tomorrow, and no guarantees that the jam will actually be delivered either.
I don't think that Labour is in any medium term danger of getting flushed down the toilet like the French Socialists. Even if there's a strong Tory revival in opposition, there's no significant challenger party capable of outflanking Labour from the left. But if they want two or three terms to set things to rights then real progress needs to be made in the first. Where does this come from without a lot more money?
Would you care to put a figure, to the nearest £100 billion, on how much and from whom? And what % of GDP should be state managed expenditure?
The problem the majority centrists see is on both ends of the spectrum. There are rightists who want to cut government spending radically but can't even describe in detail how to cut a small percentage sum like £100 billion; and leftists who want the opposite, but become unicorns when asked for detail about how much is needed to put it all right, and who pays.
I'll be there Friday (Terraforming Mars) and Saturday (Ark Nova). I'm retiring from my day job in 6 months and trying to avoid entirely filling my time with politics, tempting thought that always is.
On the other hand, I'm standing for Labour's National Executive Committee, and trying for an Open Labour endorsement, i.e. non-factional left of centre (like Ann Black).
Do they do old school hex based games? Drang Nach Osten etc?
The Tories will absolutely go into opposition and some point back PR and I expect reversing Brexit too
They might as well go republican and abolish the Establishment of the C of E. They seem to have dumped everything else - sound money, balance of payments, defence of the realm, rule of law etc. etc.
Hardly, you can be in favour of the latter and pro monarchy and established church and back PR. Indeed PR would probably make the Tories even more pro sound money, pro monarchy and established church and rule of law as Reform would take most of the populist right who are more in favour of slashing immigration and hanging murderers and spending more on public services than defending the established order and a small state
The Cons won't back PR. An ailing Lab Govt could well bring it in. They wouldn't even need a referendum - just a vote in Parliament. The current lot have shown them how.
Going to put my hand up and accept that I among to assert AV is a form of PR. I thought it was, but technically, in single member constituencies, I see it is not accepted.
The Cons won't back PR. An ailing Lab Govt could well bring it in. They wouldn't even need a referendum - just a vote in Parliament. The current lot have shown them how.
Strongly agree. It will be something that happens at the end of a government or if they fall below the line. 2010 redux IMHO. If Brown had won we'd have likely had PR by now.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The outlook is giving moo until the 5-6th of April.
“One of the most hideously vile, tediously unvaried and unappealing months of all time [March 2024]. Absolutely nothing decent on offer. Barely any sun, no convection, hardly any warmth, a couple of frosts and no snow. Just perpetual grey skies with repulsively chilly days and disgusting mild nights. Yet again conditions worse than a bad November 🤮
Makes last March seem brilliant by comparison. I spent the end of that revolting month in London and the weather was so foul it beggared belief. Should be a long long time before anything as repellent as that would disgrace the final third of the month but I am off there again tomorrow and not only does it look every bit as rank as last year but if anything even worse. It would seem 6am on Saturday is the only time there will be any sun 🤬
The bare minimum you could expect was a couple of reasonable days in a week. Now it's just week after week of relentless cloud and rain. The UK climate truly has been relegated into the lowest tier of utter garbage alongside bleak sparsely populated outposts like the Faeroes, Falklands and Aleutians. A poisonous dump of a country unfit for human habitation 🤢
"UK".
We've had a fair bit of sun up north. Admittedly by my standards, but I did wonder on a couplke of occasions if I should have put on some factor50 before leaving the house.
You poor southerners have suffered a winter like we poor sods in the West of Scotland suffer every year. No wonder mental health issues are increasing.
Mind you, yesterday was beautiful. Sunny all day. I was able to walk the dogs without a coat for the first time this year, cut the grass, plant potatoes, then sit in the summerhouse with something cool and fizzy. Today has been cold rain all day. Back to gloves and wellies.
Not me, of course, that poor southerner remark, aimed at: but I'm not surprised by your comments. We do benefit from the rain shadow on the East. Very visible on the weather radar.
This winter we have benefited from the rain shadow in the West, with Easterly gales and storms from the jet stream being to the south of us.
Would I be right to assume that some PB punters aren't that well acquainted with Blackpool? I can see ReFUK doing really well.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
You used to be able to get a cheap B and B room in Blackpool for Tory (and Labour) conferences which even students could afford. Plus enjoy some bracing sea air after the debates and speeches before the evening bars.
Now you have to spend a fortune for some corporate soulless hotel room in Manchester or Birmingham if you want to attend a party conference. One thing that could do something to stop even further decline in Blackpool is to have some party conferences in seaside resorts again!
So in summary, the Tory solution to a town which is run down, squalid, dirty and poor is to hold Tory Party conference there for part of 1 week. What about the other 51 weeks?
Well Tory conference brought in thousands of delegates for that week, many of them wealthy retirees or well paid City workers from London and filled up every b and b in town.
It probably brought in more revenue to Blackpool than the rest of the year combined, except for high summer tourist season to the Pleasure Beach.
The only other solution would be a massive tax on flights to Spain, so more UK holidaymakers can only afford to take their annual holiday at the seaside in Blackpool rather than the Costas. However doubt that would play well beyond Blackpool
Going to put my hand up and accept that I among to assert AV is a form of PR. I thought it was, but technically, in single member constituencies, I see it is not accepted.
Going to put my hand up and accept that I among to assert AV is a form of PR. I thought it was, but technically, in single member constituencies, I see it is not accepted.
Going to put my hand up and accept that I among to assert AV is a form of PR. I thought it was, but technically, in single member constituencies, I see it is not accepted.
The Tories will absolutely go into opposition and some point back PR and I expect reversing Brexit too
I dont see either Tories or Labour backing PR. The system works in their favour as it is.
I strongly disagree. At some point we will have PR.
Why do you think that? FPTP suits the two dominant parties. Also the country rejected a change to a form of PR last time the question was asked.
AV is most definitely NOT a form of PR.
Why isn’t it? It’s designed to be more proportional than FPTP? It is not true PR for sure, but does that exist anywhere?
It is said by some that Israel is the best and purest example of PR. Just wondering how that project is getting on....
AV is not PR. But it does the crucial thing of giving serious new and other parties a chance, as you can vote (1) heart and (2) head. That is all that is needed to break the logjam.
I'll be there Friday (Terraforming Mars) and Saturday (Ark Nova). I'm retiring from my day job in 6 months and trying to avoid entirely filling my time with politics, tempting thought that always is.
On the other hand, I'm standing for Labour's National Executive Committee, and trying for an Open Labour endorsement, i.e. non-factional left of centre (like Ann Black).
Do they do old school hex based games? Drang Nach Osten etc?
Winter War, Operation Sealion ...
Terrible Swift Sword, Cross of Iron...ah the bliss.
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
I think she's their biggest asset. A Labour politician talking some degree of economic sense - it's not happened before.
A Labour politician advocating for near-total replication of Conservative economic policy. If being not actually a Tory is enough for most people then it won't make any difference. If a significant fraction of the electorate starts to ask awkward questions about what's going to change besides the occupants of ministerial limos, then they're in trouble.
Is that really what you took from her Mais lecture? 90 minutes of policy that put her significantly to the left of Blair and Brown.
@pigeon is a more articulate manifestation of @BigJohnOwls. Same unthinking, uninformed opinions albeit using bigger words.
Reform is not a complete substitute, I am afraid, for redistribution. You can find the money to at least make a start on repairing the state and dealing with the vast problems of ill health and impoverishment in this country through growing the old pie or taking slices off some people to give to others - and there's precious little sign of rampant growth magically reappearing any time soon, whereas the need exists now.
We are dealing here with an Opposition that won't deploy wealth taxes, or raise taxes on residential property, capital gains or inheritances. They have, of course, promised an assortment of relatively modest revenue raising measures (two of which Hunt has nicked) but these are hardly transformative.
If, when the manifesto arrives, it contains stronger measures (more taxation on assets, a watering down of the triple lock for richer pensioners, basically anything that will result in significantly increased spending on people and in areas where it is sorely needed, then I'll change my tune. Right now, this doesn't look as if it will be forthcoming, does it?
Having political principle, winning elections and running countries are three very different arts. After 1992 and 2017 no-one who wants to win is going to set out anything in a manifesto that can be used against them in a populist way There is no point in blaming the politicians. It's the voters who get to vote, and they decide the rules.
As to what Labour would do, they are going to set out for a long view approach, with a few retail gimmicks like VAT on private schools. People should look for the silences about tax. They are not going to set out tax rises except for very specific groups like oil and gas outfits and Russian oligarchs, along with St Trinian's parents. But they may not absolutely rule out, say, mansion taxes etc, council tax revaluation (brave) etc. If they have any sense they will say something very general about fair taxes, broadest shoulders, meeting requirements etc and leave it at that.
There is some truth in this, most obviously in the assertion that the majority of voters are clearly cakeist. I guess I just hear the long list of things that Labour say they won't do, and also some of the stuff that they will (the adherence to Hunt's fiscal rule on debt reduction appears to negate any likelihood of large scale capital investment paid for by borrowing, on top of the tax pledges which leave no major source of cash for spending on, for example, the huge backlog of crumbling schools,) and I start to think "what are you lot actually for?"
Following on from that, why would you then believe that there will be a magical transformation five minutes after the next election, and that we're not simply going to get something similar to what we already have, just with a handful of very limited tax and spending adjustments and some regulatory reforms that don't require a Labour Treasury to cough up any more cash? And I don't even trust them over all of those: are newly minted Labour MPs in commuter belt seats really going to be any keener on voting through measures to force their own constituents to put up with hated new housing developments than their Conservative predecessors?
You can, perhaps, appreciate why it is that not all of us are entirely sold on the bright new dawn just yet?
Would I be right to assume that some PB punters aren't that well acquainted with Blackpool? I can see ReFUK doing really well.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
You used to be able to get a cheap B and B room in Blackpool for Tory (and Labour) conferences which even students could afford. Plus enjoy some bracing sea air after the debates and speeches before the evening bars.
Now you have to spend a fortune for some corporate soulless hotel room in Manchester or Birmingham if you want to attend a party conference. One thing that could do something to stop even further decline in Blackpool is to have some party conferences in seaside resorts again!
So in summary, the Tory solution to a town which is run down, squalid, dirty and poor is to hold Tory Party conference there for part of 1 week. What about the other 51 weeks?
Well Tory conference brought in thousands of delegates for that week, many of them wealthy retirees or well paid City workers from London and filled up every b and b in town.
It probably brought in more revenue to Blackpool than the rest of the year combined, except for high summer tourist season to the Pleasure Beach.
The only other solution would be a massive tax on flights to Spain, so more UK holidaymakers can only afford to take their annual holiday at the seaside in Blackpool rather than the Costas. However doubt that would play well beyond Blackpool
Jesus...
That is true, the B and B and hotel owners were furious when the Tory and Labour conferences moved to Manchester and Birmingham as they lost their biggest source of revenue in the autumn and winter. Blackpool being a tourist seaside town which makes little revenue otherwise outside of the summer tourist season
Going to put my hand up and accept that I among to assert AV is a form of PR. I thought it was, but technically, in single member constituencies, I see it is not accepted.
Would I be right to assume that some PB punters aren't that well acquainted with Blackpool? I can see ReFUK doing really well.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
You used to be able to get a cheap B and B room in Blackpool for Tory (and Labour) conferences which even students could afford. Plus enjoy some bracing sea air after the debates and speeches before the evening bars.
Now you have to spend a fortune for some corporate soulless hotel room in Manchester or Birmingham if you want to attend a party conference. One thing that could do something to stop even further decline in Blackpool is to have some party conferences in seaside resorts again!
So in summary, the Tory solution to a town which is run down, squalid, dirty and poor is to hold Tory Party conference there for part of 1 week. What about the other 51 weeks?
Well Tory conference brought in thousands of delegates for that week, many of them wealthy retirees or well paid City workers from London and filled up every b and b in town.
It probably brought in more revenue to Blackpool than the rest of the year combined, except for high summer tourist season to the Pleasure Beach.
The only other solution would be a massive tax on flights to Spain, so more UK holidaymakers can only afford to take their annual holiday at the seaside in Blackpool rather than the Costas. However doubt that would play well beyond Blackpool
Jesus...
That is true, the B and B and hotel owners were furious when the Tory and Labour conferences moved to Manchester and Birmingham as they lost their biggest source of revenue in the autumn and winter. Blackpool being a tourist seaside town which makes little revenue otherwise outside of the summer tourist season
Blackpool wants a fast line to Manchester and/or Liverpool with multiple stops along the coast. Would increase the day trade. Bloody expensive though, probably.
Currently 1hr25, a bit too much for commuting or evening trips.
Going to put my hand up and accept that I among to assert AV is a form of PR. I thought it was, but technically, in single member constituencies, I see it is not accepted.
Going to put my hand up and accept that I among to assert AV is a form of PR. I thought it was, but technically, in single member constituencies, I see it is not accepted.
Going to put my hand up and accept that I among to assert AV is a form of PR. I thought it was, but technically, in single member constituencies, I see it is not accepted.
I have been looking in detail at the new Scottish Hate Crime Act. It is illiberal authoritarian nonsense at its worst, Scotland obviously aiming for some prize as the country bringing in more stupid legislation which then has to be reversed than any other country.
If @DavidL thinks that this will stop me saying anything about Scottish people he can think again. This is a law which deserves to be ridiculed into oblivion, a stake through its heart, never to be heard of again.
I was thinking of a header on it - and if @DavidL has to recuse himself - will see if I can come up with something. Though TBH there has been a lot of very good commentary on it already.
shows the current FM is not up to it
Mind you, from a casual reading of it, the fun you could have by reporting your political opponents for heresy could make it quite exciting….
thought things have evolved over 500 year = appears not
I’m a small c conservative. My first thought on hearing of Great New Idea is - “Have we tried this before? How high was the pile of dead people, last time.”
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
I think she's their biggest asset. A Labour politician talking some degree of economic sense - it's not happened before.
A Labour politician advocating for near-total replication of Conservative economic policy. If being not actually a Tory is enough for most people then it won't make any difference. If a significant fraction of the electorate starts to ask awkward questions about what's going to change besides the occupants of ministerial limos, then they're in trouble.
Is that really what you took from her Mais lecture? 90 minutes of policy that put her significantly to the left of Blair and Brown.
@pigeon is a more articulate manifestation of @BigJohnOwls. Same unthinking, uninformed opinions albeit using bigger words.
Reform is not a complete substitute, I am afraid, for redistribution. You can find the money to at least make a start on repairing the state and dealing with the vast problems of ill health and impoverishment in this country through growing the old pie or taking slices off some people to give to others - and there's precious little sign of rampant growth magically reappearing any time soon, whereas the need exists now.
We are dealing here with an Opposition that won't deploy wealth taxes, or raise taxes on residential property, capital gains or inheritances. They have, of course, promised an assortment of relatively modest revenue raising measures (two of which Hunt has nicked) but these are hardly transformative.
If, when the manifesto arrives, it contains stronger measures (more taxation on assets, a watering down of the triple lock for richer pensioners, basically anything that will result in significantly increased spending on people and in areas where it is sorely needed, then I'll change my tune. Right now, this doesn't look as if it will be forthcoming, does it?
Having political principle, winning elections and running countries are three very different arts. After 1992 and 2017 no-one who wants to win is going to set out anything in a manifesto that can be used against them in a populist way There is no point in blaming the politicians. It's the voters who get to vote, and they decide the rules.
As to what Labour would do, they are going to set out for a long view approach, with a few retail gimmicks like VAT on private schools. People should look for the silences about tax. They are not going to set out tax rises except for very specific groups like oil and gas outfits and Russian oligarchs, along with St Trinian's parents. But they may not absolutely rule out, say, mansion taxes etc, council tax revaluation (brave) etc. If they have any sense they will say something very general about fair taxes, broadest shoulders, meeting requirements etc and leave it at that.
There is some truth in this, most obviously in the assertion that the majority of voters are clearly cakeist. I guess I just hear the long list of things that Labour say they won't do, and also some of the stuff that they will (the adherence to Hunt's fiscal rule on debt reduction appears to negate any likelihood of large scale capital investment paid for by borrowing, on top of the tax pledges which leave no major source of cash for spending on, for example, the huge backlog of crumbling schools,) and I start to think "what are you lot actually for?"
Following on from that, why would you then believe that there will be a magical transformation five minutes after the next election, and that we're not simply going to get something similar to what we already have, just with a handful of very limited tax and spending adjustments and some regulatory reforms that don't require a Labour Treasury to cough up any more cash? And I don't even trust them over all of those: are newly minted Labour MPs in commuter belt seats really going to be any keener on voting through measures to force their own constituents to put up with hated new housing developments than their Conservative predecessors?
You can, perhaps, appreciate why it is that not all of us are entirely sold on the bright new dawn just yet?
To win the election Labour need a couple of million Tory votes to switch to Labour, and more to stay at home, go LD and Reform and so on. Labour already have Bootle. In Cumbria, where I live, they hold zero seats and have a real chance of winning all but one next time. I think they will. This will be on the basis of voters thinking they are more competent than the Tories, do not hold revolutionary views that offend those who normally vote Tory but feel deserted, will be more honest and consistent and will take a long view.
Would I be right to assume that some PB punters aren't that well acquainted with Blackpool? I can see ReFUK doing really well.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
You used to be able to get a cheap B and B room in Blackpool for Tory (and Labour) conferences which even students could afford. Plus enjoy some bracing sea air after the debates and speeches before the evening bars.
Now you have to spend a fortune for some corporate soulless hotel room in Manchester or Birmingham if you want to attend a party conference. One thing that could do something to stop even further decline in Blackpool is to have some party conferences in seaside resorts again!
I went once as a delegate to a NUS conference. It was a very interesting experience. If I remember correctly we voted for a Communist as President (Aaronvitch or similar name?) because he was more sensible and likeable than the Labour/Broad Left candidate.
That would be David Aaronovitch. He's certainly not a Communist now. Writes interesting stuff. Eminently sane. Look out for his substack contributions. Particularly good on Israel/Gaza.
To win the election Labour need a couple of million Tory votes to switch to Labour, and more to stay at home, go LD and Reform and so on. Labour already have Bootle. In Cumbria, where I live, they hold zero seats and have a real chance of winning all but one next time. I think they will. This will be on the basis of voters thinking they are more competent than the Tories, do not hold revolutionary views that offend those who normally vote Tory but feel deserted, will be more honest and consistent and will take a long view.
So what will be the size of the Labour victory in your view?
Would I be right to assume that some PB punters aren't that well acquainted with Blackpool? I can see ReFUK doing really well.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
You used to be able to get a cheap B and B room in Blackpool for Tory (and Labour) conferences which even students could afford. Plus enjoy some bracing sea air after the debates and speeches before the evening bars.
Now you have to spend a fortune for some corporate soulless hotel room in Manchester or Birmingham if you want to attend a party conference. One thing that could do something to stop even further decline in Blackpool is to have some party conferences in seaside resorts again!
I went once as a delegate to a NUS conference. It was a very interesting experience. If I remember correctly we voted for a Communist as President (Aaronvitch or similar name?) because he was more sensible and likeable than the Labour/Broad Left candidate.
I was an NUS delegate to Blackpool,too, when Aaronovitch was President. 1981.
The length of time during which Labour has almost always polled between 41 and 47 is worth noting and consistent. It is beginning to look like a habit and a fixture.
In 2017 tories were about 20% ahead right up to the campaign. Not saying it will happen again but I suspect when the labour manifesto is published just like may did they will shed percentages
Rachel Reeve offering misery will not do them any favours. They need to keep her well out of the way in the campaign
I think she's their biggest asset. A Labour politician talking some degree of economic sense - it's not happened before.
A Labour politician advocating for near-total replication of Conservative economic policy. If being not actually a Tory is enough for most people then it won't make any difference. If a significant fraction of the electorate starts to ask awkward questions about what's going to change besides the occupants of ministerial limos, then they're in trouble.
Is that really what you took from her Mais lecture? 90 minutes of policy that put her significantly to the left of Blair and Brown.
she is being realistic enough with what they will inherit in terms of already sky high taxation and debt (with crap public services to boot) - usually the tories can argue they get 2 out of 3 right but definitely none right and therefore no hope . Labour know they can risk the odd seat in order to not over promise so make it easier in power
The danger for Starmer/Reeves is they end up like Francois Hollande, disappointing their core supporters with MOR policies, while their transactional voters drift away after the novelty wears off. Hollande ended up so unpopular he didn't stand for re-election. Its what happens to the uncharismatic. I think it could happen to Starmer if the Tories are led in opposition by someone with a bit of oomph - and who is not a total bampot in the Truss/Braverman model. They really need Penny to hold on to her seat - she could prove a formidable opponent.
To be absolutely fair to Labour, they're saying some of the right things and one has to assume that they're scared of traditional Tory voters running away screaming at the first sign of anything that might frighten them, which is why they've gone out of their way to reassure almost everyone who still has any money that theu won't be asked to part with more of it. But if the plan is to plead for time to fix the economy through structural reform, whilst leaving the majority of taxes frozen where they are (which implies further cuts to public spending) then they're playing a dangerous game. It involves pleading for time with an exhausted public, with promises of jam tomorrow, and no guarantees that the jam will actually be delivered either.
I don't think that Labour is in any medium term danger of getting flushed down the toilet like the French Socialists. Even if there's a strong Tory revival in opposition, there's no significant challenger party capable of outflanking Labour from the left. But if they want two or three terms to set things to rights then real progress needs to be made in the first. Where does this come from without a lot more money?
The other problem for Labour is that the Tories' baseline figures are essentially a fantasy. They pencil in fuel duty rises that never happen and cuts that simply won't. They've adopted something of a salt the earth strategy which makes it doubly hard to make big promises now and actually deliver. Because you'll need some of that money to make up shortfalls.
They'll adopt something similar to the Tories in 2010 but somewhat in reverse. Arrive in No. 10, say (justifiably) the books are even worse than we were told, but here are the things we've promised we'll deliver on and we will while going for growth with some of the lower hanging fruit the Tories can't do (Planning, EU agreements). Then begin to turn the taps on in the second half of the parliament, hopefully as a result of an improving economy but using the power of the treasury to dictate terms if not quite there.
Then will argue (hopefully justifiably) we're recovering and don't let the Tories wreck it, with the opportunity for a deeply significant second term.
The Tories will absolutely go into opposition and some point back PR and I expect reversing Brexit too
I dont see either Tories or Labour backing PR. The system works in their favour as it is.
I strongly disagree. At some point we will have PR.
Er, surely you mean, even more PR. Quite a lot of it in the UK already.
Where?
Scotland, NI, Wales.
Wales?
Wales' electoral system bears roughly the same relationship to PR as a British Gas bill does to reality.
The Holyrood system is barely better.
NI and Scottish locals I will give you, but that's hardly 'a lot.'
If we do get PR, I suspect it will be led in by England copying the local government system in Scotland - which is generally so far as I can see agreed to have been a success - buoyed by the overdue changes to the Senedd system that are being proposed.
Would I be right to assume that some PB punters aren't that well acquainted with Blackpool? I can see ReFUK doing really well.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
You used to be able to get a cheap B and B room in Blackpool for Tory (and Labour) conferences which even students could afford. Plus enjoy some bracing sea air after the debates and speeches before the evening bars.
Now you have to spend a fortune for some corporate soulless hotel room in Manchester or Birmingham if you want to attend a party conference. One thing that could do something to stop even further decline in Blackpool is to have some party conferences in seaside resorts again!
I went once as a delegate to a NUS conference. It was a very interesting experience. If I remember correctly we voted for a Communist as President (Aaronvitch or similar name?) because he was more sensible and likeable than the Labour/Broad Left candidate.
That would be David Aaronovitch. He's certainly not a Communist now. Writes interesting stuff. Eminently sane. Look out for his substack contributions. Particularly good on Israel/Gaza.
The Tories will absolutely go into opposition and some point back PR and I expect reversing Brexit too
I dont see either Tories or Labour backing PR. The system works in their favour as it is.
I strongly disagree. At some point we will have PR.
Why do you think that? FPTP suits the two dominant parties. Also the country rejected a change to a form of PR last time the question was asked.
The country never got offered PR and anyhow it was a different time.
It will not suit them in time and then PR will come in. Maybe even this time if Labour have to negotiate with the Lib Dems
PR would benefit Galloway and Farage rather than the Lib Dems. The ideas that it would mean permanent sensible supremacy is a centrist delusion.
Isn't the point of democracy that people should get what they vote for ?
The rest of it is your delusion about what sensible centrists think.
Would you be supportive of a referendum on the ECHR or the death penalty?
People who want to leave the ECHR, restore the death penalty, reintroduce trial by ordeal or whatever can stick it in a manifesto and stand for parliament.
Personally the concept of the death penalty is so utterly appalling I just cannot ever be in support of it. If it were introduced I would emigrate.
Probably no one really wants to debate this, and I don’t think it will ever return in the U.K. However, I am interested in peoples opinions on it. If you had 100% certainty of guilt, would you still be opposed? The murderer of Sarah Everard? Or of Bibaa Henry and Nicole Smallman? Or or children? Is it the state taking the life that you object to? Personally I am against it, but would allow those convicted with no chance of ever being released to commit suicide.
Would you be supportive of a referendum on the ECHR or the death penalty?
Would you be supportive of a referendum on joining the EU?
Of course, providing that President Le Pen doesn’t veto us.
So presumably you spent the years between 2016 and 2020 advocating for the second referendum side?
You must be new here.
I was just curious?
Personally I'd be opposed to the death penalty but if a party stands and wins on offering one and the people vote for it then I would support the principle but enacting it would see me renounce my citizenship. I really think the whole thing is just awful. We should not kill people.
Personally the concept of the death penalty is so utterly appalling I just cannot ever be in support of it. If it were introduced I would emigrate.
Probably no one really wants to debate this, and I don’t think it will ever return in the U.K. However, I am interested in peoples opinions on it. If you had 100% certainty of guilt, would you still be opposed? The murderer of Sarah Everard? Or of Bibaa Henry and Nicole Smallman? Or or children? Is it the state taking the life that you object to? Personally I am against it, but would allow those convicted with no chance of ever being released to commit suicide.
Against it, whatever the circumstances. Never, ever, ever bring it back.
It is the only issue which would mean I leave the UK, it's just unconscionable.
Personally the concept of the death penalty is so utterly appalling I just cannot ever be in support of it. If it were introduced I would emigrate.
Probably no one really wants to debate this, and I don’t think it will ever return in the U.K. However, I am interested in peoples opinions on it. If you had 100% certainty of guilt, would you still be opposed? The murderer of Sarah Everard? Or of Bibaa Henry and Nicole Smallman? Or or children? Is it the state taking the life that you object to? Personally I am against it, but would allow those convicted with no chance of ever being released to commit suicide.
The ‘eye for an eye makes the whole world blind’ objection can be overcome by having other capital offences than murder, like in Singapore.
The Tories will absolutely go into opposition and some point back PR and I expect reversing Brexit too
I dont see either Tories or Labour backing PR. The system works in their favour as it is.
I strongly disagree. At some point we will have PR.
Why do you think that? FPTP suits the two dominant parties. Also the country rejected a change to a form of PR last time the question was asked.
The country never got offered PR and anyhow it was a different time.
It will not suit them in time and then PR will come in. Maybe even this time if Labour have to negotiate with the Lib Dems
PR would benefit Galloway and Farage rather than the Lib Dems. The ideas that it would mean permanent sensible supremacy is a centrist delusion.
Isn't the point of democracy that people should get what they vote for ?
The rest of it is your delusion about what sensible centrists think.
Would you be supportive of a referendum on the ECHR or the death penalty?
People who want to leave the ECHR, restore the death penalty, reintroduce trial by ordeal or whatever can stick it in a manifesto and stand for parliament.
Not sure what the dying embers of this failed Conservative regime has achieved other than the reintroduction of trial by ordeal for the whole country.
Because it's an issue that is so anti to my being and what I believe in.
It is the idea that people would vote to reintroduce it and then the government actually do it, that would make me leave. I could not continue to live in a country that engages in this activity.
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The outlook is giving moo until the 5-6th of April.
“One of the most hideously vile, tediously unvaried and unappealing months of all time [March 2024]. Absolutely nothing decent on offer. Barely any sun, no convection, hardly any warmth, a couple of frosts and no snow. Just perpetual grey skies with repulsively chilly days and disgusting mild nights. Yet again conditions worse than a bad November 🤮
Makes last March seem brilliant by comparison. I spent the end of that revolting month in London and the weather was so foul it beggared belief. Should be a long long time before anything as repellent as that would disgrace the final third of the month but I am off there again tomorrow and not only does it look every bit as rank as last year but if anything even worse. It would seem 6am on Saturday is the only time there will be any sun 🤬
The bare minimum you could expect was a couple of reasonable days in a week. Now it's just week after week of relentless cloud and rain. The UK climate truly has been relegated into the lowest tier of utter garbage alongside bleak sparsely populated outposts like the Faeroes, Falklands and Aleutians. A poisonous dump of a country unfit for human habitation 🤢
"UK".
We've had a fair bit of sun up north. Admittedly by my standards, but I did wonder on a couplke of occasions if I should have put on some factor50 before leaving the house.
Richardabdn as the name suggests lives in Aberdeen and spends most of his time moaning about Aberdeen weather.
One of the major flaws of that forum is the preponderance of posters from Aberdeen (weirdly!) who therefore give a completely skewed interpretation of the weather based upon prevailing conditions in Northeast Scotland!
Quite the contrast with pb, where we seemingly do have a pretty good distribution across the nation (save perhaps NI and West Wales, perhaps Cornwall).
@Leon is a Cornishman TBF (although resident in London) as is @Pagan2 I believe?
Leon no longer counts as Cornish. He is basically a citizen of nowhere (or at least nowhere cold, grey and drizzly…). I don’t think pagan lives in Cornwall either.
I dont it is true as I had to move to the south east for work, however I am now back in devon which while the wrong side of the border is at least close
Personally the concept of the death penalty is so utterly appalling I just cannot ever be in support of it. If it were introduced I would emigrate.
Probably no one really wants to debate this, and I don’t think it will ever return in the U.K. However, I am interested in peoples opinions on it. If you had 100% certainty of guilt, would you still be opposed? The murderer of Sarah Everard? Or of Bibaa Henry and Nicole Smallman? Or or children? Is it the state taking the life that you object to? Personally I am against it, but would allow those convicted with no chance of ever being released to commit suicide.
The ‘eye for an eye makes the whole world blind’ objection can be overcome by having other capital offences than murder, like in Singapore.
One of the main reasons I will never live in Singapore is because of the death penalty.
Because it's an issue that is so anti to my being and what I believe in.
It is the idea that people would vote to reintroduce it and then the government actually do it, that would make me leave. I could not continue to live in a country that engages in this activity.
To win the election Labour need a couple of million Tory votes to switch to Labour, and more to stay at home, go LD and Reform and so on. Labour already have Bootle. In Cumbria, where I live, they hold zero seats and have a real chance of winning all but one next time. I think they will. This will be on the basis of voters thinking they are more competent than the Tories, do not hold revolutionary views that offend those who normally vote Tory but feel deserted, will be more honest and consistent and will take a long view.
So what will be the size of the Labour victory in your view?
The last time I had to guess (I foolishly entered the New Year guessing game) I said NOM - Labour on 315 seats or thereabouts. I would settle for that as a Labour/LD deal being necessary for governing would not be at all bad.
However the Tories have plumbed depths beyond imagining so far this year, and it looks as if one or two others are like me - always vote Tory but not this time.
I feel like those academic polling people who after massive amounts of maths confidently predict a Labour majority between -30 and +300 with 95% certainty.
A Tory wipe out is what they deserve. Rationally I think the result will be something like 1997. Which would, I hope, be enough for One Nation Tories to be able to take their party back.
The Tories will absolutely go into opposition and some point back PR and I expect reversing Brexit too
I dont see either Tories or Labour backing PR. The system works in their favour as it is.
I strongly disagree. At some point we will have PR.
Why do you think that? FPTP suits the two dominant parties. Also the country rejected a change to a form of PR last time the question was asked.
The country never got offered PR and anyhow it was a different time.
It will not suit them in time and then PR will come in. Maybe even this time if Labour have to negotiate with the Lib Dems
PR would benefit Galloway and Farage rather than the Lib Dems. The ideas that it would mean permanent sensible supremacy is a centrist delusion.
Isn't the point of democracy that people should get what they vote for ?
The rest of it is your delusion about what sensible centrists think.
Would you be supportive of a referendum on the ECHR or the death penalty?
People who want to leave the ECHR, restore the death penalty, reintroduce trial by ordeal or whatever can stick it in a manifesto and stand for parliament.
One option would to make ECHR an opt in / opt out, like organ donation. Those who would like to be covered by the European convention on human rights can be, but if they’d prefer to opt out and take their chances then they’re free to.
They're nothing like the English who are attracted to the south of France.
That's PSG out of it. Leaves Man City or Chelsea. I'll guarantee there's no booing in the UK
A Spanish friend (Ghanaian wife) notes that the incidents of abuse, they experience in Spain, seems to map quite well to whether the area was Republican or Nationalist in the Civil War.
Because it's an issue that is so anti to my being and what I believe in.
It is the idea that people would vote to reintroduce it and then the government actually do it, that would make me leave. I could not continue to live in a country that engages in this activity.
I think you’ll be ok. It’s not coming back.
It is more likely now we've had Brexit IMHO, as the Tories will try and do something daft like that. I remember when they said they'd never consider leaving the ECHR.
The Tories will absolutely go into opposition and some point back PR and I expect reversing Brexit too
I dont see either Tories or Labour backing PR. The system works in their favour as it is.
I strongly disagree. At some point we will have PR.
Why do you think that? FPTP suits the two dominant parties. Also the country rejected a change to a form of PR last time the question was asked.
The country never got offered PR and anyhow it was a different time.
It will not suit them in time and then PR will come in. Maybe even this time if Labour have to negotiate with the Lib Dems
PR would benefit Galloway and Farage rather than the Lib Dems. The ideas that it would mean permanent sensible supremacy is a centrist delusion.
Isn't the point of democracy that people should get what they vote for ?
The rest of it is your delusion about what sensible centrists think.
Would you be supportive of a referendum on the ECHR or the death penalty?
People who want to leave the ECHR, restore the death penalty, reintroduce trial by ordeal or whatever can stick it in a manifesto and stand for parliament.
One option would to make ECHR an opt in / opt out, like organ donation. Those who would like to be covered by the European convention on human rights can be, but if they’d prefer to opt out and take their chances then they’re free to.
Nah, it’s like taxes. People want tax rises for everyone else and the ECHR not to apply to them.
Because it's an issue that is so anti to my being and what I believe in.
It is the idea that people would vote to reintroduce it and then the government actually do it, that would make me leave. I could not continue to live in a country that engages in this activity.
I think you’ll be ok. It’s not coming back.
Even in the US it seems slowly on the way out in many states.
The Cons won't back PR. An ailing Lab Govt could well bring it in. They wouldn't even need a referendum - just a vote in Parliament. The current lot have shown them how.
Also would like to see Labour enfranchise resident voters from the EU, and return constituency sizes to a population basis. So sick of the Tory prioritisation of gerrymandering - it’s time they got a taste of their own meds.
To win the election Labour need a couple of million Tory votes to switch to Labour, and more to stay at home, go LD and Reform and so on. Labour already have Bootle. In Cumbria, where I live, they hold zero seats and have a real chance of winning all but one next time. I think they will. This will be on the basis of voters thinking they are more competent than the Tories, do not hold revolutionary views that offend those who normally vote Tory but feel deserted, will be more honest and consistent and will take a long view.
So what will be the size of the Labour victory in your view?
The last time I had to guess (I foolishly entered the New Year guessing game) I said NOM - Labour on 315 seats or thereabouts. I would settle for that as a Labour/LD deal being necessary for governing would not be at all bad.
However the Tories have plumbed depths beyond imagining so far this year, and it looks as if one or two others are like me - always vote Tory but not this time.
I feel like those academic polling people who after massive amounts of maths confidently predict a Labour majority between -30 and +300 with 95% certainty.
A Tory wipe out is what they deserve. Rationally I think the result will be something like 1997. Which would, I hope, be enough for One Nation Tories to be able to take their party back.
If the Tories went back to being a One Nation party and Labour messes up, I'd be interested in voting for them again. But not until this current lot are wiped out.
I am glad there are sensible Tories like you left, gives me some hope for the party. My Dad is also not voting, having voted in every election since the 70s for the Tories.
Would I be right to assume that some PB punters aren't that well acquainted with Blackpool? I can see ReFUK doing really well.
In summary, Blackpool is run down, squalid, dirty and poor. Despite the tourist traps, the rest of the town is tatty. And I don't even mean tucked away - go a few streets back from the Pleasure Beach and have a look.
As the traditional seaside B&Bs ceased to have appeal to holidaymakers the town has made dollah from housing asylum seekers. Which isn't popular with non-asylum seekers.
Yes, ReFUK ran few candidates for council. But they only need one candidate to ask the question - do you want your town back? They rejected Labour in 2019 because of the decay, and it has got so much worse under the tenure of Scott Braincell. Play on that and ReFUK should comfortably come second.
You used to be able to get a cheap B and B room in Blackpool for Tory (and Labour) conferences which even students could afford. Plus enjoy some bracing sea air after the debates and speeches before the evening bars.
Now you have to spend a fortune for some corporate soulless hotel room in Manchester or Birmingham if you want to attend a party conference. One thing that could do something to stop even further decline in Blackpool is to have some party conferences in seaside resorts again!
So in summary, the Tory solution to a town which is run down, squalid, dirty and poor is to hold Tory Party conference there for part of 1 week. What about the other 51 weeks?
Well Tory conference brought in thousands of delegates for that week, many of them wealthy retirees or well paid City workers from London and filled up every b and b in town.
It probably brought in more revenue to Blackpool than the rest of the year combined, except for high summer tourist season to the Pleasure Beach.
The only other solution would be a massive tax on flights to Spain, so more UK holidaymakers can only afford to take their annual holiday at the seaside in Blackpool rather than the Costas. However doubt that would play well beyond Blackpool
Jesus...
That is true, the B and B and hotel owners were furious when the Tory and Labour conferences moved to Manchester and Birmingham as they lost their biggest source of revenue in the autumn and winter. Blackpool being a tourist seaside town which makes little revenue otherwise outside of the summer tourist season
Blackpool wants a fast line to Manchester and/or Liverpool with multiple stops along the coast. Would increase the day trade. Bloody expensive though, probably.
Currently 1hr25, a bit too much for commuting or evening trips.
Michael Portillo would tell you that, according to the 1908 Bradshaw, the businessman’s express only took 1hr 5mins.
The Tories will absolutely go into opposition and some point back PR and I expect reversing Brexit too
I dont see either Tories or Labour backing PR. The system works in their favour as it is.
I strongly disagree. At some point we will have PR.
Why do you think that? FPTP suits the two dominant parties. Also the country rejected a change to a form of PR last time the question was asked.
The country never got offered PR and anyhow it was a different time.
It will not suit them in time and then PR will come in. Maybe even this time if Labour have to negotiate with the Lib Dems
PR would benefit Galloway and Farage rather than the Lib Dems. The ideas that it would mean permanent sensible supremacy is a centrist delusion.
Isn't the point of democracy that people should get what they vote for ?
The rest of it is your delusion about what sensible centrists think.
Would you be supportive of a referendum on the ECHR or the death penalty?
People who want to leave the ECHR, restore the death penalty, reintroduce trial by ordeal or whatever can stick it in a manifesto and stand for parliament.
One option would to make ECHR an opt in / opt out, like organ donation. Those who would like to be covered by the European convention on human rights can be, but if they’d prefer to opt out and take their chances then they’re free to.
Nah, it’s like taxes. People want tax rises for everyone else and the ECHR not to apply to them.
I was attempting to be humorous. I’ll stick to the day job
The Cons won't back PR. An ailing Lab Govt could well bring it in. They wouldn't even need a referendum - just a vote in Parliament. The current lot have shown them how.
Also would like to see Labour enfranchise resident voters from the EU, and return constituency sizes to a population basis. So sick of the Tory prioritisation of gerrymandering - it’s time they got a taste of their own meds.
That was one of SKS's original policies. The attacks it got never made sense to me, why shouldn't people from the EU be able to vote if they live here?
GET ME THE FUCK BACK TO COLD GREY DEPRESSING LONDON
You really don't want to be here. I am in London with a fire on, 2 thick woolly layers, a snood, wrist warmers and a blanket and am still freezing as well as looking as depressed and fed up as Whistler's Mother.
Jeez. It does look pretty bad. One nice day. Otherwise perpetual late February
It should not be 10C max and sunless in early April
Five sunny days forecast, and some cloud and rain to keep the flowers happy. What are you moaning about?
The outlook is giving moo until the 5-6th of April.
“One of the most hideously vile, tediously unvaried and unappealing months of all time [March 2024]. Absolutely nothing decent on offer. Barely any sun, no convection, hardly any warmth, a couple of frosts and no snow. Just perpetual grey skies with repulsively chilly days and disgusting mild nights. Yet again conditions worse than a bad November 🤮
Makes last March seem brilliant by comparison. I spent the end of that revolting month in London and the weather was so foul it beggared belief. Should be a long long time before anything as repellent as that would disgrace the final third of the month but I am off there again tomorrow and not only does it look every bit as rank as last year but if anything even worse. It would seem 6am on Saturday is the only time there will be any sun 🤬
The bare minimum you could expect was a couple of reasonable days in a week. Now it's just week after week of relentless cloud and rain. The UK climate truly has been relegated into the lowest tier of utter garbage alongside bleak sparsely populated outposts like the Faeroes, Falklands and Aleutians. A poisonous dump of a country unfit for human habitation 🤢
"UK".
We've had a fair bit of sun up north. Admittedly by my standards, but I did wonder on a couplke of occasions if I should have put on some factor50 before leaving the house.
Richardabdn as the name suggests lives in Aberdeen and spends most of his time moaning about Aberdeen weather.
One of the major flaws of that forum is the preponderance of posters from Aberdeen (weirdly!) who therefore give a completely skewed interpretation of the weather based upon prevailing conditions in Northeast Scotland!
Quite the contrast with pb, where we seemingly do have a pretty good distribution across the nation (save perhaps NI and West Wales, perhaps Cornwall).
@Leon is a Cornishman TBF (although resident in London) as is @Pagan2 I believe?
We used to have a contributor called Polruan but he eventually admitted he didn't actually live there. Which is a shame because Polruan is one of the nicer places to live in Cornwall. Virtually an island.
Because it's an issue that is so anti to my being and what I believe in.
It is the idea that people would vote to reintroduce it and then the government actually do it, that would make me leave. I could not continue to live in a country that engages in this activity.
I think you’ll be ok. It’s not coming back.
It is more likely now we've had Brexit IMHO, as the Tories will try and do something daft like that. I remember when they said they'd never consider leaving the ECHR.
I hope you are right.
I don’t think they will. Sure you are more likely to find a few Tory MPs who do support the death penalty than you will on the left, but never enough to win a vote in parliament.
Despite the froth and noise, most politicians are fairly progressive, relatively bright people. They don’t tend to support the death penalty.
Because it's an issue that is so anti to my being and what I believe in.
It is the idea that people would vote to reintroduce it and then the government actually do it, that would make me leave. I could not continue to live in a country that engages in this activity.
I think you’ll be ok. It’s not coming back.
It is more likely now we've had Brexit IMHO, as the Tories will try and do something daft like that. I remember when they said they'd never consider leaving the ECHR.
I hope you are right.
Though we do have the perfectly named outsource service provider to carry out the state executions: Capita.
The Tories will absolutely go into opposition and some point back PR and I expect reversing Brexit too
I dont see either Tories or Labour backing PR. The system works in their favour as it is.
I strongly disagree. At some point we will have PR.
Why do you think that? FPTP suits the two dominant parties. Also the country rejected a change to a form of PR last time the question was asked.
The country never got offered PR and anyhow it was a different time.
It will not suit them in time and then PR will come in. Maybe even this time if Labour have to negotiate with the Lib Dems
PR would benefit Galloway and Farage rather than the Lib Dems. The ideas that it would mean permanent sensible supremacy is a centrist delusion.
Isn't the point of democracy that people should get what they vote for ?
The rest of it is your delusion about what sensible centrists think.
Would you be supportive of a referendum on the ECHR or the death penalty?
People who want to leave the ECHR, restore the death penalty, reintroduce trial by ordeal or whatever can stick it in a manifesto and stand for parliament.
One option would to make ECHR an opt in / opt out, like organ donation. Those who would like to be covered by the European convention on human rights can be, but if they’d prefer to opt out and take their chances then they’re free to.
Nah, it’s like taxes. People want tax rises for everyone else and the ECHR not to apply to them.
I was attempting to be humorous. I’ll stick to the day job
And yet I took it as a serious or semi serious idea. I quite like the idea of personalised laws (based on a universally standard that you can choose to elevate in certain areas). Why not? It’s like insurance. Minimum or fully comp?
Personally the concept of the death penalty is so utterly appalling I just cannot ever be in support of it. If it were introduced I would emigrate.
Probably no one really wants to debate this, and I don’t think it will ever return in the U.K. However, I am interested in peoples opinions on it. If you had 100% certainty of guilt, would you still be opposed? The murderer of Sarah Everard? Or of Bibaa Henry and Nicole Smallman? Or or children? Is it the state taking the life that you object to? Personally I am against it, but would allow those convicted with no chance of ever being released to commit suicide.
Still opposed in all cases. It is not that some people don't deserve it - they do, but what people deserve is not the final word over how a modern state should act.
Because it's an issue that is so anti to my being and what I believe in.
It is the idea that people would vote to reintroduce it and then the government actually do it, that would make me leave. I could not continue to live in a country that engages in this activity.
I think you’ll be ok. It’s not coming back.
It is more likely now we've had Brexit IMHO, as the Tories will try and do something daft like that. I remember when they said they'd never consider leaving the ECHR.
I hope you are right.
Though we do have the perfectly named outsource service provider to carry out the state executions: Capita.
The Tories will absolutely go into opposition and some point back PR and I expect reversing Brexit too
I dont see either Tories or Labour backing PR. The system works in their favour as it is.
I strongly disagree. At some point we will have PR.
Why do you think that? FPTP suits the two dominant parties. Also the country rejected a change to a form of PR last time the question was asked.
The country never got offered PR and anyhow it was a different time.
It will not suit them in time and then PR will come in. Maybe even this time if Labour have to negotiate with the Lib Dems
PR would benefit Galloway and Farage rather than the Lib Dems. The ideas that it would mean permanent sensible supremacy is a centrist delusion.
Isn't the point of democracy that people should get what they vote for ?
The rest of it is your delusion about what sensible centrists think.
Would you be supportive of a referendum on the ECHR or the death penalty?
People who want to leave the ECHR, restore the death penalty, reintroduce trial by ordeal or whatever can stick it in a manifesto and stand for parliament.
One option would to make ECHR an opt in / opt out, like organ donation. Those who would like to be covered by the European convention on human rights can be, but if they’d prefer to opt out and take their chances then they’re free to.
Nah, it’s like taxes. People want tax rises for everyone else and the ECHR not to apply to them.
I was attempting to be humorous. I’ll stick to the day job
And yet I took it as a serious or semi serious idea. I quite like the idea of personalised laws (based on a universally standard that you can choose to elevate in certain areas). Why not? It’s like insurance. Minimum or fully comp?
Would be an interesting prospect if your tax bill could vary too. Would you pay £300 less tax per year in exchange for forfeiting the right to legal aid, for example.
Personally the concept of the death penalty is so utterly appalling I just cannot ever be in support of it. If it were introduced I would emigrate.
Probably no one really wants to debate this, and I don’t think it will ever return in the U.K. However, I am interested in peoples opinions on it. If you had 100% certainty of guilt, would you still be opposed? The murderer of Sarah Everard? Or of Bibaa Henry and Nicole Smallman? Or or children? Is it the state taking the life that you object to? Personally I am against it, but would allow those convicted with no chance of ever being released to commit suicide.
I'm against it for reasons including but not limited to the certainty of guilt problem. I wouldn't want it even for apparently very certain and very awful crimes, on the "hard cases make bad law" principle.
The Tories will absolutely go into opposition and some point back PR and I expect reversing Brexit too
I dont see either Tories or Labour backing PR. The system works in their favour as it is.
I strongly disagree. At some point we will have PR.
Why do you think that? FPTP suits the two dominant parties. Also the country rejected a change to a form of PR last time the question was asked.
The country never got offered PR and anyhow it was a different time.
It will not suit them in time and then PR will come in. Maybe even this time if Labour have to negotiate with the Lib Dems
PR would benefit Galloway and Farage rather than the Lib Dems. The ideas that it would mean permanent sensible supremacy is a centrist delusion.
Isn't the point of democracy that people should get what they vote for ?
The rest of it is your delusion about what sensible centrists think.
Would you be supportive of a referendum on the ECHR or the death penalty?
People who want to leave the ECHR, restore the death penalty, reintroduce trial by ordeal or whatever can stick it in a manifesto and stand for parliament.
One option would to make ECHR an opt in / opt out, like organ donation. Those who would like to be covered by the European convention on human rights can be, but if they’d prefer to opt out and take their chances then they’re free to.
Nah, it’s like taxes. People want tax rises for everyone else and the ECHR not to apply to them.
I was attempting to be humorous. I’ll stick to the day job
And yet I took it as a serious or semi serious idea. I quite like the idea of personalised laws (based on a universally standard that you can choose to elevate in certain areas). Why not? It’s like insurance. Minimum or fully comp?
Would be an interesting prospect if your tax bill could vary too. Would you pay £300 less tax per year in exchange for forfeiting the right to legal aid, for example.
Perhaps I could skip the military funding, and accept a small risk of invasion.
Comments
Mind you, yesterday was beautiful. Sunny all day. I was able to walk the dogs without a coat for the first time this year, cut the grass, plant potatoes, then sit in the summerhouse with something cool and fizzy. Today has been cold rain all day. Back to gloves and wellies.
It will not suit them in time and then PR will come in. Maybe even this time if Labour have to negotiate with the Lib Dems
I don’t see Labour needing help to get over the line, but even if they did, expect a referendum again.
I think they may well introduce it without one but anyhow, I think it would be very likely to be voted for.
It would be a much better system anyhow.
The problem the majority centrists see is on both ends of the spectrum. There are rightists who want to cut government spending radically but can't even describe in detail how to cut a small percentage sum like £100 billion; and leftists who want the opposite, but become unicorns when asked for detail about how much is needed to put it all right, and who pays.
AV is not PR. But it does the crucial thing of giving serious new and other parties a chance, as you can vote (1) heart and (2) head. That is all that is needed to break the logjam.
Following on from that, why would you then believe that there will be a magical transformation five minutes after the next election, and that we're not simply going to get something similar to what we already have, just with a handful of very limited tax and spending adjustments and some regulatory reforms that don't require a Labour Treasury to cough up any more cash? And I don't even trust them over all of those: are newly minted Labour MPs in commuter belt seats really going to be any keener on voting through measures to force their own constituents to put up with hated new housing developments than their Conservative predecessors?
You can, perhaps, appreciate why it is that not all of us are entirely sold on the bright new dawn just yet?
The rest of it is your delusion about what sensible centrists think.
Jim Jordan wants to hold Merrick Garland in contempt because he DID turn over the Biden interview transcripts.
https://twitter.com/emptywheel/status/1772366886182777100
Currently 1hr25, a bit too much for commuting or evening trips.
Second thought - “Can we do better this time?”
They'll adopt something similar to the Tories in 2010 but somewhat in reverse. Arrive in No. 10, say (justifiably) the books are even worse than we were told, but here are the things we've promised we'll deliver on and we will while going for growth with some of the lower hanging fruit the Tories can't do (Planning, EU agreements). Then begin to turn the taps on in the second half of the parliament, hopefully as a result of an improving economy but using the power of the treasury to dictate terms if not quite there.
Then will argue (hopefully justifiably) we're recovering and don't let the Tories wreck it, with the opportunity for a deeply significant second term.
Wales' electoral system bears roughly the same relationship to PR as a British Gas bill does to reality.
The Holyrood system is barely better.
NI and Scottish locals I will give you, but that's hardly 'a lot.'
If we do get PR, I suspect it will be led in by England copying the local government system in Scotland - which is generally so far as I can see agreed to have been a success - buoyed by the overdue changes to the Senedd system that are being proposed.
But we are far from that yet.
Personally I am against it, but would allow those convicted with no chance of ever being released to commit suicide.
Personally I'd be opposed to the death penalty but if a party stands and wins on offering one and the people vote for it then I would support the principle but enacting it would see me renounce my citizenship. I really think the whole thing is just awful. We should not kill people.
But why feel so strongly on this?
Are you in favour or against armed police units? Judge Judy & Executioner….
https://youtu.be/aq2u1bmkKUQ?si=8ClV5F2I3VM54LHJ
It is the only issue which would mean I leave the UK, it's just unconscionable.
It is the idea that people would vote to reintroduce it and then the government actually do it, that would make me leave. I could not continue to live in a country that engages in this activity.
However the Tories have plumbed depths beyond imagining so far this year, and it looks as if one or two others are like me - always vote Tory but not this time.
I feel like those academic polling people who after massive amounts of maths confidently predict a Labour majority between -30 and +300 with 95% certainty.
A Tory wipe out is what they deserve. Rationally I think the result will be something like 1997. Which would, I hope, be enough for One Nation Tories to be able to take their party back.
You must have had conversion therapy when it comes to the EU. Unless you changed your mind because Brexit is going so well.
I hope you are right.
I am glad there are sensible Tories like you left, gives me some hope for the party. My Dad is also not voting, having voted in every election since the 70s for the Tories.
Despite the froth and noise, most politicians are fairly progressive, relatively bright people. They don’t tend to support the death penalty.
Anyone who thinks Wales has a system that approximates to PR is capable of putting pineapple on their pizza.