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Disgraced Tory MP Scott Benton does a Boris Johnson and quits – politicalbetting.com

BREAKING: Rishi Sunak faces new by-election nightmare as suspended Tory MP Scott Benton announces resignation – by @ashcowburn https://t.co/oxJpqYNhP3
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me, FPT
Well... in 62.4% Leave Wellingborough, Reform got third place and 13.0%. And that was with just about the worst possible Conservative candidate.
Reform's probelm in a nutshell. They hurt the Conservative vote everywhere but probably can't win anywhere. Their core vote- grumpy old men who don't like the way the world is going and especially don't like their own decrepitude- is too dispersed.
When I was a school governor - it got to the point where I literally created a governing body of parents and former teaching staff because no parents cared
Miscarriage of Justice.
https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1772284507938340963
if they can’t make it here, they won’t make it anywhere
Judge Merchan to Trump's team: "That you don't have a case right now is really disconcerting."
"You are literally accusing the Manhattan DA's office and the people assigned to this case of prosecutorial misconduct." Merchan says Trump's team doesn't have a single example to support that allegation.
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1772279809034359218
X's case against the CCDH is dismissed, with the judge ruling that the suit was intended to punish CCDH for free speech
https://twitter.com/kateconger/status/1772278638508912849
“The People went so far above and beyond what they were required to do that it’s odd that we’re even here.”
https://x.com/klasfeldreports/status/1772280812576051364?s=46&t=cxkq0jndvkhIwWZCCEL3QQ
It's up to you, Newmark, Newmark!
https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1772282068795347282
The judgment against him stands pending appeal. No reason given for the reduction in the bond amount.
(One has to take the special Trump consideration as read, I guess. And yes, it's pathetic.)
Musk should pony up the legal fees for CCDH without being forced to by the court.
https://twitter.com/RomanValentinus/status/1772281615328202855
There is a police commissioner election on the 2nd
Would have thought this was gift week for Reform looking at the constituency...
Now Reform being first (unlikely) or a strong second place is going to destroy Rishi with Red Wall Troy MPs as all hope is lost.
But it will equally destroy reform if they don’t do well here - so as a by election it’s going to give us a good idea of how the next election will play out
It’s very unlikely though that Trump could appeal any loss there to the Supreme Court .
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh_Genocide_Remembrance_Day
Whether what happened in 1971 should be called a "genocide" depends on the definition on the word -- but what happened was certainly horrific:
"Seeking to curtail the Bengali self-determination movement, erstwhile Pakistani president Yahya Khan approved a large-scale military deployment, and in the nine-month-long conflict that ensued, Pakistani soldiers and local pro-Pakistan militias killed between 300,000 and 3,000,000 Bengalis and raped between 200,000 and 400,000 Bengali women in a systematic campaign of mass murder and genocidal sexual violence.[3] In their investigation of the genocide, the Geneva-based International Commission of Jurists concluded that Pakistan's campaign involved the attempt to exterminate or forcibly remove a significant portion of the country's Hindu populace."
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh_genocide
(As the article notes at the beginning, both the factual accuracy and the neutrality of the article are "disputed". I know of no simple way for anyone not a historian specializing in the conflict to resolve those disputes, but if there is an accessible source that any of you can recommend, I would be grateful to know that.)
It does start to look as though either (a) the American judicial system is more broken than the Titanic or (b) Trump really *is* getting special treatment due to his politics.
Of course, the latter does to a great degree imply the former.
@hanwo0dward).
I'm gonna make it anywhere
It's up to you
Blackpool South, Blackpool South.
UN security council passes resolution calling for immediate ceasefire, as US abstains
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/mar/25/israel-gaza-live-unrwa-aid-north-gaza-un-security-council-vote-ceasefire-middle-east-latest
https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-has-hours-cover-454-million-judgment-or-risk-property-seizure-2024-03-25/
I predicted this this morning, the American legal system has a real problem with being nasty to rich white guys, but it is still a bitter disappointment.
6 Tory losses
1 Tory hold
1 Labour loss
3 Labour holds
1 SNP loss.
https://x.com/conservatives/status/1772292369972334671?s=46&t=2iv1prQ4P8HyMrM-UX0Dig
Don’t they realise how tone-deaf this is?
The uselessness of the American legal system is helping him mightily though.
If he had had no investments in NY then he wouldnt have been dragged in to court,
The other prosecutions are by and large polictically based rather than financial.
(So long as you're rich.)
Summary: they can't. Reform supporters hate the Tories and want things on eg Immigration that are impossible to deliver.
Loss to Reform isn't even the Conservatives biggest problem. They have lost a similar number to Labour whom they are not going to get back in at least the short term. Their best hope is keep some Don't Knows and hang on to maybe a bit over half their previous vote.
https://opinium.substack.com/p/for-conservative-to-reform-defectors?triedRedirect=true
Trump says he's Jesus.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1772270369400934709
- Tories 1 (-6)
- Lab 9 (+5)
- LDs 1 (+1)
- Workers Party 1 (+1)
- SNP 0 (-1)
On my first visit, I was taken there by (now) Lord Roberts of Belgravia and while there a famous royal biographer tried urgently to seduce me
My more recent visit was less colourful, I confess. Perhaps that’s why I now find it dull
The judge allows him to do so, and the DA has a week to respond.
How might that motion fare?
The judge's parting words:
"That's fine. See you all on the 15th."
https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1772296666504147023
I have bet accordingly.
I doubt sadly he will agree to any debates however.
Remember winning elections is not about winning over the intelligent folk on PB...
(Tara-dara-dah-dah)
Aaaaare melting awaaay...
In terms of Blackpool South, it's been a low turnout constituency since the turn of the millennium, which may impact. Saw some comment from Luke Tryl of More In Common saying focus group responses there suggest very low esteem for all politicians/disillusionment rampant etc which suggests to me Reform might get a reasonable return if they can capture a plague on all your houses thing, maybe helped by a May 2nd date (local electors who might not have bothered for just a by election).
Easy Labour regain, they need to go beyond 50% to suggest major progress imo.
Hope you're all well
This anecdote is new to me.
John Carpenter on horror classic The Thing: ‘It was an enormous failure and I got fired’
https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2024/mar/25/john-carpenter-kurt-russell-the-thing-horror-classic
...Ennio Morricone wrote the score. I went to see him in Rome. He didn’t speak any English and I didn’t speak any Italian. He played me a couple of things and, through a translator, I said: “In general, can I request you use fewer notes?” He did – and the result is the opening theme...
Worth noting that Reform currently don’t have a candidate which is a might strange given this by election has been obvious for a while https://www.reformparty.uk/blackpool-south-constituency
Con 26% (+3)
Lab 44% (-2)
Lib Dem 9% (-)
Reform 11% (-1)
SNP 3% (+1)
Green 6% (+1)
Other 2% (-1)
Fieldwork: 22nd-25th March 2024
Sample: 1,589 GB adults
Reversion to mean from last week. One interesting nugget is economic competence score at 44 34 to Labour. 34 is the best Tory return on this metric for over a year. In and of itself a nothingness but the sort of thing they'd need to see more regularly to claw back some ground.
Nice to see you back.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=e0GUT_H6ubM
The only way I can see of reducing his support amongst the rest is to cut off the oxygen of publicity from him. That's why they stick with him - he's funny and outrageous. Unfortunately he is a brilliant self-publicist, he makes great copy and he's the candidate for one of the two parties, so I don't think that will happen, this year at least.
"her first response was 'it's f&$$ing miles away'. There hasn't been a second response."
The same is probably true of Boris.