Disgraced Tory MP Scott Benton does a Boris Johnson and quits – politicalbetting.com

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Disgraced Tory MP Scott Benton does a Boris Johnson and quits – politicalbetting.com

BREAKING: Rishi Sunak faces new by-election nightmare as suspended Tory MP Scott Benton announces resignation – by @ashcowburn https://t.co/oxJpqYNhP3

Read the full story here

DavidL

As I have said before I only hope that Sunak does not waste money buying lottery cards.

Nigelb

Now it appears.

DavidL

On present polling I am not entirely confident that the Tories will come second here.

Pagan2

FPT

DavidL said:

Stocky said:

DavidL said:

What we need to talk about is s4 of the Hate Crime and Public Order (S) Act 2021 which is due to come into force on 1st April 2024. This is apparently too long for a single post.

4 Offences of stirring up hatred
(1) A person commits an offence if—
(a) the person—
(i) behaves in a manner that a reasonable person would consider to be threatening, abusive or insulting, or
(ii) communicates to another person material that a reasonable person would consider to be threatening, abusive or insulting, and
(b) either—
(i) in doing so, the person intends to stir up hatred against a group of persons based on the group being defined by reference to race, colour, nationality (including citizenship), or ethnic or national origins, or
(ii) a reasonable person would consider the behaviour or the communication of the material to be likely to result in hatred being stirred up against such a group.
(2) A person commits an offence if—
(a) the person—
...
(ii) communicates to another person material that a reasonable person would consider to be threatening or abusive, and
(b) in doing so, the person intends to stir up hatred against a group of persons based on the group being defined by reference to a characteristic mentioned in subsection (3).
(3) The characteristics are—
(a) age,
(b) disability,
(c) religion or, in the case of a social or cultural group, perceived religious affiliation,
(d) sexual orientation,
(e) transgender identity,
(f) variations in sex characteristics.

I was going to wait for April Fools Day to bring this up.

It's shocking. The SNP are plunging the county into a form of authoritarian dystopia.

What push back is happening in Scotland over this. Will it damage the SNP electorally?

Who knows? The relevant Minister is promising that the police will investigate every complaint, a promise they do not make, for example, in respect of burglary. They can also record any such alleged incident even when they take the view that an actual offence has not occurred.

As a side not apropos of the conversation the other day...that allegation was investigated or not will then show up on an enhanced dbs check

Nigelb

DavidL said:

As I have said before I only hope that Sunak does not waste money buying lottery cards.

Well he evidently was lucky in love, so the old adage applies.

nico679

The by-election should be on May 2nd , the same day as the local elections . Get all the bad news out of the way in one go.

Nigelb

At this rate he won't make it to Jan 2025 even if the party were to continue to semi-tolerate him.

Stuartinromford

DavidL said:

On present polling I am not entirely confident that the Tories will come second here.

And yet,
me, FPT

Well... in 62.4% Leave Wellingborough, Reform got third place and 13.0%. And that was with just about the worst possible Conservative candidate.

Reform's probelm in a nutshell. They hurt the Conservative vote everywhere but probably can't win anywhere. Their core vote- grumpy old men who don't like the way the world is going and especially don't like their own decrepitude- is too dispersed.

Andy_JS

The Tories will struggle to get 20% I think. Could be pushed into third.

MarqueeMark

Who will lose the most resignations before their election, Tories or Republicans?

DavidL

Nigelb said:

At this rate he won't make it to Jan 2025 even if the party were to continue to semi-tolerate him.

Can't help feeling that if this was 1997 then the government would have fallen by now.

Fairliered

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

As I have said before I only hope that Sunak does not waste money buying lottery cards.

Well he evidently was lucky in love, so the old adage applies.

Only if marrying into money counts as being lucky.

viewcode

Andy_JS said:

The Tories will struggle to get 20% I think. Could be pushed into third.

@Andy_JS has returned to us! I was about to send out a search party. Did you have an adventure?

TOPPING

fpt

eek said:

TOPPING said:

Simon_Peach said:

TOPPING said:

Pagan2 said:

A question for people who support vat on private school fees. (note no skin in this game whatsoever as wont affect me). Do you also support vat on university fees as well which are also currently exempt and serve a minority of people in the country and also provide the networking effect.

If not justify why its different

For god's sake don't introduce logic into it all.

Like you I couldn't care less it sounds vaguely right not to have a tax exemption for the most privileged folk in the land (bless 'em). I think however that the (un?)intended consequences of the effect on the state sector will be one of those elements that those involved curse to high heaven while the Lab politicians put it away as job done.

What I wonder do the state sector heads think about the possible influx of more students into their midsts.

As each of them will arrive with five grand+ funding and, presumably, reasonably engaged parents, most heads will be delighted unless they are heavily over subscribed and Tristram only got in because said parents came to the admissions appeal armed with a top barrister…

Yes that is probably true. And, without making any assumptions, perhaps those heads might be concerned at the standards those parents had previously expected and might expect at their new school.

I really don’t think the expensive barrister argument works - any school that is over subscribed fully understands how to handle admission appeals - an expensive barrister isn’t going to help them, the staff member quietly telling you the key phrases to write in the appeal document is

My point about welcoming pointy-elbowed parents (the example was given that it would help petition govt for funds) is that some of their pointy-elbowedness might be aimed at the school itself if it is thought it doesn't measure up to their previous private school.

Stuartinromford

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

At this rate he won't make it to Jan 2025 even if the party were to continue to semi-tolerate him.

Can't help feeling that if this was 1997 then the government would have fallen by now.

That Major managed to eke out a 21 (and falling) majority for five years looks more impressive now than it did at the time.

eek

TOPPING said:

fpt

eek said:

TOPPING said:

Simon_Peach said:

TOPPING said:

Pagan2 said:

A question for people who support vat on private school fees. (note no skin in this game whatsoever as wont affect me). Do you also support vat on university fees as well which are also currently exempt and serve a minority of people in the country and also provide the networking effect.

If not justify why its different

For god's sake don't introduce logic into it all.

Like you I couldn't care less it sounds vaguely right not to have a tax exemption for the most privileged folk in the land (bless 'em). I think however that the (un?)intended consequences of the effect on the state sector will be one of those elements that those involved curse to high heaven while the Lab politicians put it away as job done.

What I wonder do the state sector heads think about the possible influx of more students into their midsts.

As each of them will arrive with five grand+ funding and, presumably, reasonably engaged parents, most heads will be delighted unless they are heavily over subscribed and Tristram only got in because said parents came to the admissions appeal armed with a top barrister…

Yes that is probably true. And, without making any assumptions, perhaps those heads might be concerned at the standards those parents had previously expected and might expect at their new school.

I really don’t think the expensive barrister argument works - any school that is over subscribed fully understands how to handle admission appeals - an expensive barrister isn’t going to help them, the staff member quietly telling you the key phrases to write in the appeal document is

My point about welcoming pointy-elbowed parents (the example was given that it would help petition govt for funds) is that some of their pointy-elbowedness might be aimed at the school itself if it is thought it doesn't measure up to their previous private school.

Most heads would welcome more pushy parents trying to get the school to improve.

When I was a school governor - it got to the point where I literally created a governing body of parents and former teaching staff because no parents cared

anothernick

DavidL said:

On present polling I am not entirely confident that the Tories will come second here.

Will be an interesting test for Reform. Their performance in Wellingborough was not great - the Tories' blundering campaign gave them every possible advantage and they still only got 13%. They had a high media profile but their grassroots effort was pretty useless, they were even observed campaigning in the next door constituency on polling day. Can they get their act together this time?

Nigelb

Appeals Court allows Trump to pay a much smaller bond of $175M and gives him 10 days to post it. @MSNBC

Miscarriage of Justice.
https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1772284507938340963

TOPPING

eek said:

TOPPING said:

fpt

eek said:

TOPPING said:

Simon_Peach said:

TOPPING said:

Pagan2 said:

A question for people who support vat on private school fees. (note no skin in this game whatsoever as wont affect me). Do you also support vat on university fees as well which are also currently exempt and serve a minority of people in the country and also provide the networking effect.

If not justify why its different

For god's sake don't introduce logic into it all.

Like you I couldn't care less it sounds vaguely right not to have a tax exemption for the most privileged folk in the land (bless 'em). I think however that the (un?)intended consequences of the effect on the state sector will be one of those elements that those involved curse to high heaven while the Lab politicians put it away as job done.

What I wonder do the state sector heads think about the possible influx of more students into their midsts.

As each of them will arrive with five grand+ funding and, presumably, reasonably engaged parents, most heads will be delighted unless they are heavily over subscribed and Tristram only got in because said parents came to the admissions appeal armed with a top barrister…

Yes that is probably true. And, without making any assumptions, perhaps those heads might be concerned at the standards those parents had previously expected and might expect at their new school.

I really don’t think the expensive barrister argument works - any school that is over subscribed fully understands how to handle admission appeals - an expensive barrister isn’t going to help them, the staff member quietly telling you the key phrases to write in the appeal document is

My point about welcoming pointy-elbowed parents (the example was given that it would help petition govt for funds) is that some of their pointy-elbowedness might be aimed at the school itself if it is thought it doesn't measure up to their previous private school.

Most heads would welcome more pushy parents trying to get the school to improve.

When I was a school governor - it got to the point where I literally created a governing body of parents and former teaching staff because no parents cared

Interesting.

eek

anothernick said:

DavidL said:

On present polling I am not entirely confident that the Tories will come second here.

Will be an interesting test for Reform. Their performance in Wellingborough was not great - the Tories' blundering campaign gave them every possible advantage and they still only got 13%. They had a high media profile but their grassroots effort was pretty useless, they were even observed campaigning in the next door constituency on polling day. Can they get their act together this time?

Given the area it really is prime Reform territory. Being frank

if they can’t make it here, they won’t make it anywhere

Nigelb

In his other court appearance this morning...

Judge Merchan to Trump's team: "That you don't have a case right now is really disconcerting."

"You are literally accusing the Manhattan DA's office and the people assigned to this case of prosecutorial misconduct." Merchan says Trump's team doesn't have a single example to support that allegation.
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1772279809034359218

Stuartinromford

eek said:

TOPPING said:

fpt

eek said:

TOPPING said:

Simon_Peach said:

TOPPING said:

Pagan2 said:

A question for people who support vat on private school fees. (note no skin in this game whatsoever as wont affect me). Do you also support vat on university fees as well which are also currently exempt and serve a minority of people in the country and also provide the networking effect.

If not justify why its different

For god's sake don't introduce logic into it all.

Like you I couldn't care less it sounds vaguely right not to have a tax exemption for the most privileged folk in the land (bless 'em). I think however that the (un?)intended consequences of the effect on the state sector will be one of those elements that those involved curse to high heaven while the Lab politicians put it away as job done.

What I wonder do the state sector heads think about the possible influx of more students into their midsts.

As each of them will arrive with five grand+ funding and, presumably, reasonably engaged parents, most heads will be delighted unless they are heavily over subscribed and Tristram only got in because said parents came to the admissions appeal armed with a top barrister…

Yes that is probably true. And, without making any assumptions, perhaps those heads might be concerned at the standards those parents had previously expected and might expect at their new school.

I really don’t think the expensive barrister argument works - any school that is over subscribed fully understands how to handle admission appeals - an expensive barrister isn’t going to help them, the staff member quietly telling you the key phrases to write in the appeal document is

My point about welcoming pointy-elbowed parents (the example was given that it would help petition govt for funds) is that some of their pointy-elbowedness might be aimed at the school itself if it is thought it doesn't measure up to their previous private school.

Most heads would welcome more pushy parents trying to get the school to improve.

When I was a school governor - it got to the point where I literally created a governing body of parents and former teaching staff because no parents cared

And to an extent, that's happening already. The kind of middle class parents who would have sent their kids private a couple of generations ago mostly don't now. And that does change the norms in schools in a good way.

Nigelb

Court tells "free speech absolutist" Musk to go do one.

X's case against the CCDH is dismissed, with the judge ruling that the suit was intended to punish CCDH for free speech
https://twitter.com/kateconger/status/1772278638508912849

eek

Nigelb said:

In his other court appearance this morning...

Judge Merchan to Trump's team: "That you don't have a case right now is really disconcerting."

"You are literally accusing the Manhattan DA's office and the people assigned to this case of prosecutorial misconduct." Merchan says Trump's team doesn't have a single example to support that allegation.
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1772279809034359218

Justice Merchan kicker before the morning recess:

“The People went so far above and beyond what they were required to do that it’s odd that we’re even here.”

https://x.com/klasfeldreports/status/1772280812576051364?s=46&t=cxkq0jndvkhIwWZCCEL3QQ

nico679

Nigelb said:

Appeals Court allows Trump to pay a much smaller bond of $175M and gives him 10 days to post it. @MSNBC

Miscarriage of Justice.
https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1772284507938340963

Trump continually attacks judges and yet continues to get special treatment . It’s pathetic .

Stuartinromford

eek said:

anothernick said:

DavidL said:

On present polling I am not entirely confident that the Tories will come second here.

Will be an interesting test for Reform. Their performance in Wellingborough was not great - the Tories' blundering campaign gave them every possible advantage and they still only got 13%. They had a high media profile but their grassroots effort was pretty useless, they were even observed campaigning in the next door constituency on polling day. Can they get their act together this time?

Given the area it really is prime Reform territory. Being frank

if they can’t make it here, they won’t make it anywhere

Are you suggesting they should get the former MP for Braintree to be their candidate?

It's up to you, Newmark, Newmark!

Nigelb

Stuartinromford said:

eek said:

anothernick said:

DavidL said:

On present polling I am not entirely confident that the Tories will come second here.

Will be an interesting test for Reform. Their performance in Wellingborough was not great - the Tories' blundering campaign gave them every possible advantage and they still only got 13%. They had a high media profile but their grassroots effort was pretty useless, they were even observed campaigning in the next door constituency on polling day. Can they get their act together this time?

Given the area it really is prime Reform territory. Being frank

if they can’t make it here, they won’t make it anywhere

Are you suggesting they should get the former MP for Braintree to be their candidate?

It's up to you, Newmark, Newmark!

No mark Newmark,

Nigelb

nico679 said:

Nigelb said:

Appeals Court allows Trump to pay a much smaller bond of $175M and gives him 10 days to post it. @MSNBC

Miscarriage of Justice.
https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1772284507938340963

Trump continually attacks judges and yet continues to get special treatment . It’s pathetic .

Here's the ruling:
https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1772282068795347282

The judgment against him stands pending appeal. No reason given for the reduction in the bond amount.
(One has to take the special Trump consideration as read, I guess. And yes, it's pathetic.)

Lennon

Nigelb said:

Appeals Court allows Trump to pay a much smaller bond of $175M and gives him 10 days to post it. @MSNBC

Miscarriage of Justice.
https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1772284507938340963

Can someone indicate the likely time-frame for this appeal? Assuming that Trump is able to post the $175Mn by the new deadline, what then happens and how soon can the appeal be heard? In my mind it seems plausible that the appeal might reduce the amount of the fine, but it seems unlikely to completely throw out the whole case - so just wondering when Trump will have to actually pay up?

Nigelb

Nigelb said:

Court tells "free speech absolutist" Musk to go do one.

X's case against the CCDH is dismissed, with the judge ruling that the suit was intended to punish CCDH for free speech
https://twitter.com/kateconger/status/1772278638508912849

Musk has repeatedly pledged to reimburse anyone who has had their freedom of speech attacked on this platform.

Musk should pony up the legal fees for CCDH without being forced to by the court.
https://twitter.com/RomanValentinus/status/1772281615328202855

nico679

Nigelb said:

nico679 said:

Nigelb said:

Appeals Court allows Trump to pay a much smaller bond of $175M and gives him 10 days to post it. @MSNBC

Miscarriage of Justice.
https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1772284507938340963

Trump continually attacks judges and yet continues to get special treatment . It’s pathetic .

Here's the ruling:
https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1772282068795347282

The judgment against him stands pending appeal. No reason given for the reduction in the bond amount.
(One has to take the special Trump consideration as read, I guess. And yes, it's pathetic.)

It looks like 5 judges were overseeing this and the court is likely to have a much more Democrat leaning judiciary given its NY so we can’t really blame this on some pro Trump judge .

jamesdoyle

As I appear to be too late to be the first to ramp the chances of Reform pushing the Cons into third in Blackpool, can I be the first to ask if there are markets on a) the Reform candidate being found to have made some dodgy social media comments, or b) a scandal engulfing either or both (or both together!) the Lab and Con candidates!

Luckyguy1983

Boris for Blackpool?

MarqueeMark

nico679 said:

Nigelb said:

nico679 said:

Nigelb said:

Appeals Court allows Trump to pay a much smaller bond of $175M and gives him 10 days to post it. @MSNBC

Miscarriage of Justice.
https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1772284507938340963

Trump continually attacks judges and yet continues to get special treatment . It’s pathetic .

Here's the ruling:
https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1772282068795347282

The judgment against him stands pending appeal. No reason given for the reduction in the bond amount.
(One has to take the special Trump consideration as read, I guess. And yes, it's pathetic.)

It looks like 5 judges were overseeing this and the court is likely to have a much more Democrat leaning judiciary given its NY so we can’t really blame this on some pro Trump judge .

If he can't make $175m within 10 days he is so screwed....

eek

Given that the lead time for a by election is 21 working days - I wonder if it will be on May 2nd or another day

There is a police commissioner election on the 2nd

RochdalePioneers

anothernick said:

DavidL said:

On present polling I am not entirely confident that the Tories will come second here.

Will be an interesting test for Reform. Their performance in Wellingborough was not great - the Tories' blundering campaign gave them every possible advantage and they still only got 13%. They had a high media profile but their grassroots effort was pretty useless, they were even observed campaigning in the next door constituency on polling day. Can they get their act together this time?

Blackpool South: The Borough of Blackpool wards of Bloomfield, Brunswick, Clifton, Hawes Side, Highfield, Marton, Squires Gate, Stanley, Talbot, Tyldesley, Victoria, and Waterloo.

Would have thought this was gift week for Reform looking at the constituency...

Luckyguy1983

Nigelb said:

nico679 said:

Nigelb said:

Appeals Court allows Trump to pay a much smaller bond of $175M and gives him 10 days to post it. @MSNBC

Miscarriage of Justice.
https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1772284507938340963

Trump continually attacks judges and yet continues to get special treatment . It’s pathetic .

Here's the ruling:
https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1772282068795347282

The judgment against him stands pending appeal. No reason given for the reduction in the bond amount.
(One has to take the special Trump consideration as read, I guess. And yes, it's pathetic.)

I am losing track, is this the one where he's being charged that money because someone accused him of dragging them into a department store changing cubicle and raping them and he denied it, thus unfairly damaging their reputation?

MarqueeMark

anothernick said:

DavidL said:

On present polling I am not entirely confident that the Tories will come second here.

Will be an interesting test for Reform. Their performance in Wellingborough was not great - the Tories' blundering campaign gave them every possible advantage and they still only got 13%. They had a high media profile but their grassroots effort was pretty useless, they were even observed campaigning in the next door constituency on polling day. Can they get their act together this time?

Reform's performance in Blackpool will be most, er, illuminating...

eek

RochdalePioneers said:

anothernick said:

DavidL said:

On present polling I am not entirely confident that the Tories will come second here.

Will be an interesting test for Reform. Their performance in Wellingborough was not great - the Tories' blundering campaign gave them every possible advantage and they still only got 13%. They had a high media profile but their grassroots effort was pretty useless, they were even observed campaigning in the next door constituency on polling day. Can they get their act together this time?

Blackpool South: The Borough of Blackpool wards of Bloomfield, Brunswick, Clifton, Hawes Side, Highfield, Marton, Squires Gate, Stanley, Talbot, Tyldesley, Victoria, and Waterloo.

Would have thought this was gift week for Reform looking at the constituency...

Yep - Reform should be a strong second place (absolute) minimum.

Now Reform being first (unlikely) or a strong second place is going to destroy Rishi with Red Wall Troy MPs as all hope is lost.


But it will equally destroy reform if they don’t do well here - so as a by election it’s going to give us a good idea of how the next election will play out

nico679

Apparently the Trump appeal re his fraud case will be heard in September .

It’s very unlikely though that Trump could appeal any loss there to the Supreme Court .

MarqueeMark

Luckyguy1983 said:

Nigelb said:

nico679 said:

Nigelb said:

Appeals Court allows Trump to pay a much smaller bond of $175M and gives him 10 days to post it. @MSNBC

Miscarriage of Justice.
https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1772284507938340963

Trump continually attacks judges and yet continues to get special treatment . It’s pathetic .

Here's the ruling:
https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1772282068795347282

The judgment against him stands pending appeal. No reason given for the reduction in the bond amount.
(One has to take the special Trump consideration as read, I guess. And yes, it's pathetic.)

I am losing track, is this the one where he's being charged that money because someone accused him of dragging them into a department store changing cubicle and raping them and he denied it, thus unfairly damaging their reputation?

No, this is the civil fraud case in New York.

eek

Luckyguy1983 said:

Nigelb said:

nico679 said:

Nigelb said:

Appeals Court allows Trump to pay a much smaller bond of $175M and gives him 10 days to post it. @MSNBC

Miscarriage of Justice.
https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1772284507938340963

Trump continually attacks judges and yet continues to get special treatment . It’s pathetic .

Here's the ruling:
https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1772282068795347282

The judgment against him stands pending appeal. No reason given for the reduction in the bond amount.
(One has to take the special Trump consideration as read, I guess. And yes, it's pathetic.)

I am losing track, is this the one where he's being charged that money because someone accused him of dragging them into a department store changing cubicle and raping them and he denied it, thus unfairly damaging their reputation?

Nope this is the obtaining loans via overstating values one

Luckyguy1983

MarqueeMark said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Nigelb said:

nico679 said:

Nigelb said:

Appeals Court allows Trump to pay a much smaller bond of $175M and gives him 10 days to post it. @MSNBC

Miscarriage of Justice.
https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1772284507938340963

Trump continually attacks judges and yet continues to get special treatment . It’s pathetic .

Here's the ruling:
https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1772282068795347282

The judgment against him stands pending appeal. No reason given for the reduction in the bond amount.
(One has to take the special Trump consideration as read, I guess. And yes, it's pathetic.)

I am losing track, is this the one where he's being charged that money because someone accused him of dragging them into a department store changing cubicle and raping them and he denied it, thus unfairly damaging their reputation?

No, this is the civil fraud case in New York.

OK ta.

Nigelb

MarqueeMark said:

nico679 said:

Nigelb said:

nico679 said:

Nigelb said:

Appeals Court allows Trump to pay a much smaller bond of $175M and gives him 10 days to post it. @MSNBC

Miscarriage of Justice.
https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1772284507938340963

Trump continually attacks judges and yet continues to get special treatment . It’s pathetic .

Here's the ruling:
https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1772282068795347282

The judgment against him stands pending appeal. No reason given for the reduction in the bond amount.
(One has to take the special Trump consideration as read, I guess. And yes, it's pathetic.)

It looks like 5 judges were overseeing this and the court is likely to have a much more Democrat leaning judiciary given its NY so we can’t really blame this on some pro Trump judge .

If he can't make $175m within 10 days he is so screwed....

Even Donny Deadbeat ought to be able to raise that much.

Luckyguy1983

eek said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Nigelb said:

nico679 said:

Nigelb said:

Appeals Court allows Trump to pay a much smaller bond of $175M and gives him 10 days to post it. @MSNBC

Miscarriage of Justice.
https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1772284507938340963

Trump continually attacks judges and yet continues to get special treatment . It’s pathetic .

Here's the ruling:
https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1772282068795347282

The judgment against him stands pending appeal. No reason given for the reduction in the bond amount.
(One has to take the special Trump consideration as read, I guess. And yes, it's pathetic.)

I am losing track, is this the one where he's being charged that money because someone accused him of dragging them into a department store changing cubicle and raping them and he denied it, thus unfairly damaging their reputation?

Nope this is the obtaining loans via overstating values one

Thanks.

Jim_Miller

Off topic: Today, I learned from Wikipedia, is
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh_Genocide_Remembrance_Day

Whether what happened in 1971 should be called a "genocide" depends on the definition on the word -- but what happened was certainly horrific:
"Seeking to curtail the Bengali self-determination movement, erstwhile Pakistani president Yahya Khan approved a large-scale military deployment, and in the nine-month-long conflict that ensued, Pakistani soldiers and local pro-Pakistan militias killed between 300,000 and 3,000,000 Bengalis and raped between 200,000 and 400,000 Bengali women in a systematic campaign of mass murder and genocidal sexual violence.[3] In their investigation of the genocide, the Geneva-based International Commission of Jurists concluded that Pakistan's campaign involved the attempt to exterminate or forcibly remove a significant portion of the country's Hindu populace."
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh_genocide

(As the article notes at the beginning, both the factual accuracy and the neutrality of the article are "disputed". I know of no simple way for anyone not a historian specializing in the conflict to resolve those disputes, but if there is an accessible source that any of you can recommend, I would be grateful to know that.)

ydoethur

Lennon said:

Nigelb said:

Appeals Court allows Trump to pay a much smaller bond of $175M and gives him 10 days to post it. @MSNBC

Miscarriage of Justice.
https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1772284507938340963

Can someone indicate the likely time-frame for this appeal? Assuming that Trump is able to post the $175Mn by the new deadline, what then happens and how soon can the appeal be heard? In my mind it seems plausible that the appeal might reduce the amount of the fine, but it seems unlikely to completely throw out the whole case - so just wondering when Trump will have to actually pay up?

If I read it right, they said September 2024 for the appeals.

It does start to look as though either (a) the American judicial system is more broken than the Titanic or (b) Trump really *is* getting special treatment due to his politics.

Of course, the latter does to a great degree imply the former.

Scott_xP

There have been 12 by-elections in the 17 months since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister; the Conservatives have lost half of them (hat-tip:
@hanwo0dward).

Fairliered

eek said:

anothernick said:

DavidL said:

On present polling I am not entirely confident that the Tories will come second here.

Will be an interesting test for Reform. Their performance in Wellingborough was not great - the Tories' blundering campaign gave them every possible advantage and they still only got 13%. They had a high media profile but their grassroots effort was pretty useless, they were even observed campaigning in the next door constituency on polling day. Can they get their act together this time?

Given the area it really is prime Reform territory. Being frank

if they can’t make it here, they won’t make it anywhere

And if I can make it there
I'm gonna make it anywhere
It's up to you
Blackpool South, Blackpool South.

Simon_Peach

Surprised Gary Coleman was an independent at the 2019 GE… surely he could have made any of the candidate short lists…

Nigelb

No veto from the US this time.

UN security council passes resolution calling for immediate ceasefire, as US abstains
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/mar/25/israel-gaza-live-unrwa-aid-north-gaza-un-security-council-vote-ceasefire-middle-east-latest

DavidL

Trump wins his appeal. He now has 10 days to produce a bond for $175m instead of the $454m he is due.
https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-has-hours-cover-454-million-judgment-or-risk-property-seizure-2024-03-25/

I predicted this this morning, the American legal system has a real problem with being nasty to rich white guys, but it is still a bitter disappointment.

nico679

Scott_xP said:

There have been 12 by-elections in the 17 months since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister; the Conservatives have lost half of them (hat-tip:
@hanwo0dward).

Only half . The only one I can think of that they won was Bozos old seat .

Alanbrooke

DavidL said:

Trump wins his appeal. He now has 10 days to produce a bond for $175m instead of the $454m he is due.
https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-has-hours-cover-454-million-judgment-or-risk-property-seizure-2024-03-25/

I predicted this this morning, the American legal system has a real problem with being nasty to rich white guys, but it is still a bitter disappointment.

On this basis all thats going to happen is rich people will leave NY and go to places like Texas and Florida where they dont get hassled.

OnlyLivingBoy

nico679 said:

Scott_xP said:

There have been 12 by-elections in the 17 months since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister; the Conservatives have lost half of them (hat-tip:
@hanwo0dward).

Only half . The only one I can think of that they won was Bozos old seat .

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_by-elections_(2010–present)

6 Tory losses
1 Tory hold
1 Labour loss
3 Labour holds
1 SNP loss.

Razedabode

Is this really the Conservatives tactics?

https://x.com/conservatives/status/1772292369972334671?s=46&t=2iv1prQ4P8HyMrM-UX0Dig

Don’t they realise how tone-deaf this is?

Unpopular

Stuartinromford said:

eek said:

TOPPING said:

fpt

eek said:

TOPPING said:

Simon_Peach said:

TOPPING said:

Pagan2 said:

A question for people who support vat on private school fees. (note no skin in this game whatsoever as wont affect me). Do you also support vat on university fees as well which are also currently exempt and serve a minority of people in the country and also provide the networking effect.

If not justify why its different

For god's sake don't introduce logic into it all.

Like you I couldn't care less it sounds vaguely right not to have a tax exemption for the most privileged folk in the land (bless 'em). I think however that the (un?)intended consequences of the effect on the state sector will be one of those elements that those involved curse to high heaven while the Lab politicians put it away as job done.

What I wonder do the state sector heads think about the possible influx of more students into their midsts.

As each of them will arrive with five grand+ funding and, presumably, reasonably engaged parents, most heads will be delighted unless they are heavily over subscribed and Tristram only got in because said parents came to the admissions appeal armed with a top barrister…

Yes that is probably true. And, without making any assumptions, perhaps those heads might be concerned at the standards those parents had previously expected and might expect at their new school.

I really don’t think the expensive barrister argument works - any school that is over subscribed fully understands how to handle admission appeals - an expensive barrister isn’t going to help them, the staff member quietly telling you the key phrases to write in the appeal document is

My point about welcoming pointy-elbowed parents (the example was given that it would help petition govt for funds) is that some of their pointy-elbowedness might be aimed at the school itself if it is thought it doesn't measure up to their previous private school.

Most heads would welcome more pushy parents trying to get the school to improve.

When I was a school governor - it got to the point where I literally created a governing body of parents and former teaching staff because no parents cared

And to an extent, that's happening already. The kind of middle class parents who would have sent their kids private a couple of generations ago mostly don't now. And that does change the norms in schools in a good way.

I've heard stories from teacher friends where they have all but begged parents to make a fuss with the Council because that's the only way to improve things.

ydoethur

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Trump wins his appeal. He now has 10 days to produce a bond for $175m instead of the $454m he is due.
https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-has-hours-cover-454-million-judgment-or-risk-property-seizure-2024-03-25/

I predicted this this morning, the American legal system has a real problem with being nasty to rich white guys, but it is still a bitter disappointment.

On this basis all thats going to happen is rich people will leave NY and go to places like Texas and Florida where they dont get hassled.

That doesn't appear to have helped Trump evade the consequences of his frauds.

The uselessness of the American legal system is helping him mightily though.

Benpointer

MarqueeMark said:

anothernick said:

DavidL said:

On present polling I am not entirely confident that the Tories will come second here.

Will be an interesting test for Reform. Their performance in Wellingborough was not great - the Tories' blundering campaign gave them every possible advantage and they still only got 13%. They had a high media profile but their grassroots effort was pretty useless, they were even observed campaigning in the next door constituency on polling day. Can they get their act together this time?

Reform's performance in Blackpool will be most, er, illuminating...

Are you saying they need a tower-ing performance?

Alanbrooke

ydoethur said:

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Trump wins his appeal. He now has 10 days to produce a bond for $175m instead of the $454m he is due.
https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-has-hours-cover-454-million-judgment-or-risk-property-seizure-2024-03-25/

I predicted this this morning, the American legal system has a real problem with being nasty to rich white guys, but it is still a bitter disappointment.

On this basis all thats going to happen is rich people will leave NY and go to places like Texas and Florida where they dont get hassled.

That doesn't appear to have helped Trump evade the consequences of his frauds.

Only becuase he was working under the current system.

If he had had no investments in NY then he wouldnt have been dragged in to court,

The other prosecutions are by and large polictically based rather than financial.

ClippP

OnlyLivingBoy said:

nico679 said:

Scott_xP said:

There have been 12 by-elections in the 17 months since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister; the Conservatives have lost half of them (hat-tip:
@hanwo0dward).

Only half . The only one I can think of that they won was Bozos old seat .

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_by-elections_(2010–present)

6 Tory losses
1 Tory hold
1 Labour loss
3 Labour holds
1 SNP loss.

Strange that your list does not include the Lib Dems.

Pulpstar

ClippP said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

nico679 said:

Scott_xP said:

There have been 12 by-elections in the 17 months since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister; the Conservatives have lost half of them (hat-tip:
@hanwo0dward).

Only half . The only one I can think of that they won was Bozos old seat .

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_by-elections_(2010–present)

6 Tory losses
1 Tory hold
1 Labour loss
3 Labour holds
1 SNP loss.

Strange that your list does not include the Lib Dems.

Why would it, they've neither held nor lost a seat.

Nigelb

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

Trump wins his appeal. He now has 10 days to produce a bond for $175m instead of the $454m he is due.
https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-has-hours-cover-454-million-judgment-or-risk-property-seizure-2024-03-25/

I predicted this this morning, the American legal system has a real problem with being nasty to rich white guys, but it is still a bitter disappointment.

On this basis all thats going to happen is rich people will leave NY and go to places like Texas and Florida where they dont get hassled.

They look kindly on fraud there ?
(So long as you're rich.)

FF43

Interesting article from Opinium's Adam Drummond on what the Conservatives can do to win back defectors to Reform.

Summary: they can't. Reform supporters hate the Tories and want things on eg Immigration that are impossible to deliver.

Loss to Reform isn't even the Conservatives biggest problem. They have lost a similar number to Labour whom they are not going to get back in at least the short term. Their best hope is keep some Don't Knows and hang on to maybe a bit over half their previous vote.

https://opinium.substack.com/p/for-conservative-to-reform-defectors?triedRedirect=true

anothernick

eek said:

RochdalePioneers said:

anothernick said:

DavidL said:

On present polling I am not entirely confident that the Tories will come second here.

Will be an interesting test for Reform. Their performance in Wellingborough was not great - the Tories' blundering campaign gave them every possible advantage and they still only got 13%. They had a high media profile but their grassroots effort was pretty useless, they were even observed campaigning in the next door constituency on polling day. Can they get their act together this time?

Blackpool South: The Borough of Blackpool wards of Bloomfield, Brunswick, Clifton, Hawes Side, Highfield, Marton, Squires Gate, Stanley, Talbot, Tyldesley, Victoria, and Waterloo.

Would have thought this was gift week for Reform looking at the constituency...

Yep - Reform should be a strong second place (absolute) minimum.

Now Reform being first (unlikely) or a strong second place is going to destroy Rishi with Red Wall Troy MPs as all hope is lost.


But it will equally destroy reform if they don’t do well here - so as a by election it’s going to give us a good idea of how the next election will play out

Reform's performance at local level does not suggest they have a base in Blackpool - they only put up 5 candidates for 42 council seats last year and got a derisory vote. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Blackpool_Council_election

Nigelb

"In return for my love they are my accusers.."

Trump says he's Jesus.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1772270369400934709

williamglenn

FF43 said:

Interesting article from Opinium's Adam Drummond on what the Conservatives can do to win back defectors to Reform.

Summary: they can't. Reform supporters hate the Tories and want things on eg Immigration that are impossible to deliver.

Loss to Reform isn't even the Conservatives biggest problem. They have lost a similar number to Labour whom they are not going to get back in at least the short term. Their best hope is keep some Don't Knows and hang on to maybe a bit over half their previous vote.

https://opinium.substack.com/p/for-conservative-to-reform-defectors?triedRedirect=true

A counterfactual to consider: imagine that Blair had won an even bigger landslide in 1997. How would the path back to power have looked for a party of the right?

Alanbrooke

williamglenn said:

FF43 said:

Interesting article from Opinium's Adam Drummond on what the Conservatives can do to win back defectors to Reform.

Summary: they can't. Reform supporters hate the Tories and want things on eg Immigration that are impossible to deliver.

Loss to Reform isn't even the Conservatives biggest problem. They have lost a similar number to Labour whom they are not going to get back in at least the short term. Their best hope is keep some Don't Knows and hang on to maybe a bit over half their previous vote.

https://opinium.substack.com/p/for-conservative-to-reform-defectors?triedRedirect=true

A counterfactual to consider: imagine that Blair had won an even bigger landslide in 1997. How would the path back to power have looked for a party of the right?

We would have invaded Iran as well as Iraq

Benpointer

ClippP said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

nico679 said:

Scott_xP said:

There have been 12 by-elections in the 17 months since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister; the Conservatives have lost half of them (hat-tip:
@hanwo0dward).

Only half . The only one I can think of that they won was Bozos old seat .

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_by-elections_(2010–present)

6 Tory losses
1 Tory hold
1 Labour loss
3 Labour holds
1 SNP loss.

Strange that your list does not include the Lib Dems.

Surely better put as 12 by-elections with Sunak as PM, seats and net change for each party =

- Tories 1 (-6)
- Lab 9 (+5)
- LDs 1 (+1)
- Workers Party 1 (+1)
- SNP 0 (-1)

FF43

FF43 said:

Interesting article from Opinium's Adam Drummond on what the Conservatives can do to win back defectors to Reform.

Summary: they can't. Reform supporters hate the Tories and want things on eg Immigration that are impossible to deliver.

Loss to Reform isn't even the Conservatives biggest problem. They have lost a similar number to Labour whom they are not going to get back in at least the short term. Their best hope is keep some Don't Knows and hang on to maybe a bit over half their previous vote.

https://opinium.substack.com/p/for-conservative-to-reform-defectors?triedRedirect=true

Should add ex Conservative Don't Knows tend to Cameronian rather than Faragist. Reform voters are emphatically the opposite.

eek

Trump hush money trial begins April 15th - 3 weeks today

nico679

Trump becomes the first ever US President to stand trial in a criminal case .

rottenborough

FFS. Give us a sodding General Election and end this insane, useless fag end parliament.

Leon

Garrick Club Anecdote Alert

On my first visit, I was taken there by (now) Lord Roberts of Belgravia and while there a famous royal biographer tried urgently to seduce me

My more recent visit was less colourful, I confess. Perhaps that’s why I now find it dull

Nigelb

eek said:

Trump hush money trial begins April 15th - 3 weeks today

Trump's attorney Todd Blanche asks to file a motion today to delay the trial because of pretrial publicity.

The judge allows him to do so, and the DA has a week to respond.

How might that motion fare?

The judge's parting words:

"That's fine. See you all on the 15th."
https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1772296666504147023

rottenborough

Nigelb said:

"In return for my love they are my accusers.."

Trump says he's Jesus.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1772270369400934709

My view is that if Trump agrees to the POTUS debates he will have a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown in at least one of them and that will be the end of his chances with enough independents to seal another term for Biden.

I have bet accordingly.

I doubt sadly he will agree to any debates however.

turbotubbs

Razedabode said:

Is this really the Conservatives tactics?

https://x.com/conservatives/status/1772292369972334671?s=46&t=2iv1prQ4P8HyMrM-UX0Dig

Don’t they realise how tone-deaf this is?

Yes and no. On one hand you can see it for what it is (disingenuous at best when central funding is such a large part of the council's funds) but also a lot of people still (rightly or wrongly) associate Labour with profligacy and poor financial management and it will resonate with them.

Remember winning elections is not about winning over the intelligent folk on PB...

RochdalePioneers

Razedabode said:

Is this really the Conservatives tactics?

https://x.com/conservatives/status/1772292369972334671?s=46&t=2iv1prQ4P8HyMrM-UX0Dig

Don’t they realise how tone-deaf this is?

No

DavidL

Scott_xP said:

There have been 12 by-elections in the 17 months since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister; the Conservatives have lost half of them (hat-tip:
@hanwo0dward).

And does he get any credit on PB for generating this remarkable number of betting opportunities? Not a whisper.

williamglenn

rottenborough said:

Nigelb said:

"In return for my love they are my accusers.."

Trump says he's Jesus.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1772270369400934709

My view is that if Trump agrees to the POTUS debates he will have a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown in at least one of them and that will be the end of his chances with enough independents to seal another term for Biden.

I have bet accordingly.

I doubt sadly he will agree to any debates however.

There's a big risk that what you consider to be a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown will go down well with that part of the electorate.

viewcode

Stuartinromford said:

eek said:

anothernick said:

DavidL said:

On present polling I am not entirely confident that the Tories will come second here.

Will be an interesting test for Reform. Their performance in Wellingborough was not great - the Tories' blundering campaign gave them every possible advantage and they still only got 13%. They had a high media profile but their grassroots effort was pretty useless, they were even observed campaigning in the next door constituency on polling day. Can they get their act together this time?

Given the area it really is prime Reform territory. Being frank

if they can’t make it here, they won’t make it anywhere

Are you suggesting they should get the former MP for Braintree to be their candidate?

It's up to you, Newmark, Newmark!

Theeeese....vagabond blues
(Tara-dara-dah-dah)
Aaaaare melting awaaay...

wooliedyed

Greetings all, been a while. Just popping by and thought I'd say hello.
In terms of Blackpool South, it's been a low turnout constituency since the turn of the millennium, which may impact. Saw some comment from Luke Tryl of More In Common saying focus group responses there suggest very low esteem for all politicians/disillusionment rampant etc which suggests to me Reform might get a reasonable return if they can capture a plague on all your houses thing, maybe helped by a May 2nd date (local electors who might not have bothered for just a by election).
Easy Labour regain, they need to go beyond 50% to suggest major progress imo.
Hope you're all well

Taz

Nigelb said:

In his other court appearance this morning...

Judge Merchan to Trump's team: "That you don't have a case right now is really disconcerting."

"You are literally accusing the Manhattan DA's office and the people assigned to this case of prosecutorial misconduct." Merchan says Trump's team doesn't have a single example to support that allegation.
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1772279809034359218

This is the Republican candidate for the Presidency too !!

rottenborough

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

Nigelb said:

"In return for my love they are my accusers.."

Trump says he's Jesus.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1772270369400934709

My view is that if Trump agrees to the POTUS debates he will have a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown in at least one of them and that will be the end of his chances with enough independents to seal another term for Biden.

I have bet accordingly.

I doubt sadly he will agree to any debates however.

There's a big risk that what you consider to be a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown will go down well with that part of the electorate.

True enough. We will see soon enough.

Nigelb

Great movie.

This anecdote is new to me.

John Carpenter on horror classic The Thing: ‘It was an enormous failure and I got fired’

https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2024/mar/25/john-carpenter-kurt-russell-the-thing-horror-classic
...Ennio Morricone wrote the score. I went to see him in Rome. He didn’t speak any English and I didn’t speak any Italian. He played me a couple of things and, through a translator, I said: “In general, can I request you use fewer notes?” He did – and the result is the opening theme...

Taz

Leon said:

Garrick Club Anecdote Alert

On my first visit, I was taken there by (now) Lord Roberts of Belgravia and while there a famous royal biographer tried urgently to seduce me

My more recent visit was less colourful, I confess. Perhaps that’s why I now find it dull

Never been. Never going to go. Although I did once meet a former Bolton Centre half at a British Legion 👍

Scott_xP

DavidL said:

Scott_xP said:

There have been 12 by-elections in the 17 months since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister; the Conservatives have lost half of them (hat-tip:
@hanwo0dward).

And does he get any credit on PB for generating this remarkable number of betting opportunities? Not a whisper.

He is losing the General Election one seat at a time...

eek

Question asked on twitter - is this the sort of seat Nigel Farage could be interested in standing in

Worth noting that Reform currently don’t have a candidate which is a might strange given this by election has been obvious for a while https://www.reformparty.uk/blackpool-south-constituency

wooliedyed

Deltapoll has
Con 26% (+3)
Lab 44% (-2)
Lib Dem 9% (-)
Reform 11% (-1)
SNP 3% (+1)
Green 6% (+1)
Other 2% (-1)
Fieldwork: 22nd-25th March 2024
Sample: 1,589 GB adults
Reversion to mean from last week. One interesting nugget is economic competence score at 44 34 to Labour. 34 is the best Tory return on this metric for over a year. In and of itself a nothingness but the sort of thing they'd need to see more regularly to claw back some ground.

DavidL

Nigelb said:

"In return for my love they are my accusers.."

Trump says he's Jesus.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1772270369400934709

It's true. Every time I hear him speak I think, "Jesus."

Taz

Simon_Peach said:

Surprised Gary Coleman was an independent at the 2019 GE… surely he could have made any of the candidate short lists…

What you talking about Willis ?

jamesdoyle

wooliedyed said:

Deltapoll has
Con 26% (+3)
Lab 44% (-2)
Lib Dem 9% (-)
Reform 11% (-1)
SNP 3% (+1)
Green 6% (+1)
Other 2% (-1)
Fieldwork: 22nd-25th March 2024
Sample: 1,589 GB adults
Reversion to mean from last week. One interesting nugget is economis competence score at 44 34 to Labour. 34 is the best Tory return on this metric for over a year. In and of itself a nothingness but the sort of thing they'd need to see more regularly to law back some ground.

But is it not true that this is an area where the Cons traditionally had leads, if not large leads, over Labour? So being at -10 (34 to 44) is not good at all. It may be an 'improvement', but it still won't save them

wooliedyed

eek said:

Question asked on twitter - is this the sort of seat Nigel Farage could be interested in standing in

I suspect he would go for Thurrock if he's coming back, he won't stand here.

DavidL

wooliedyed said:

Deltapoll has
Con 26% (+3)
Lab 44% (-2)
Lib Dem 9% (-)
Reform 11% (-1)
SNP 3% (+1)
Green 6% (+1)
Other 2% (-1)
Fieldwork: 22nd-25th March 2024
Sample: 1,589 GB adults
Reversion to mean from last week. One interesting nugget is economis competence score at 44 34 to Labour. 34 is the best Tory return on this metric for over a year. In and of itself a nothingness but the sort of thing they'd need to see more regularly to law back some ground.

Swingback. Or noise.

Nice to see you back.

viewcode

Nigelb said:

Great movie.

This anecdote is new to me.

John Carpenter on horror classic The Thing: ‘It was an enormous failure and I got fired’

https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2024/mar/25/john-carpenter-kurt-russell-the-thing-horror-classic
...Ennio Morricone wrote the score. I went to see him in Rome. He didn’t speak any English and I didn’t speak any Italian. He played me a couple of things and, through a translator, I said: “In general, can I request you use fewer notes?” He did – and the result is the opening theme...

JC played it at his concerts a few years back

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=e0GUT_H6ubM

Fishing

williamglenn said:

rottenborough said:

Nigelb said:

"In return for my love they are my accusers.."

Trump says he's Jesus.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1772270369400934709

My view is that if Trump agrees to the POTUS debates he will have a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown in at least one of them and that will be the end of his chances with enough independents to seal another term for Biden.

I have bet accordingly.

I doubt sadly he will agree to any debates however.

There's a big risk that what you consider to be a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown will go down well with that part of the electorate.

I think that's a very good point. All the things that should have completely discredited Trump (his indictments, his convictions, his poor business sense, his lack of knowledge of, or even interest in, government, economics, diplomacy, the coup attempt, etc. etc.) have lost him the supporters he wouldn't get anyway - the sane, the sensible and the civilised. Anybody whose votes he could lose from being terrible has already surely deserted him.

The only way I can see of reducing his support amongst the rest is to cut off the oxygen of publicity from him. That's why they stick with him - he's funny and outrageous. Unfortunately he is a brilliant self-publicist, he makes great copy and he's the candidate for one of the two parties, so I don't think that will happen, this year at least.

Nigelb

DavidL said:

Nigelb said:

"In return for my love they are my accusers.."

Trump says he's Jesus.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1772270369400934709

It's true. Every time I hear him speak I think, "Jesus."

On that basis, he's also shit.

Stuartinromford

wooliedyed said:

eek said:

Question asked on twitter - is this the sort of seat Nigel Farage could be interested in standing in

I suspect he would go for Thurrock if he's coming back, he won't stand here.

As Michele Brown (Mrs Gyles Brandreth) said when her husband told her of his ambitions to become MP for Chester

"her first response was 'it's f&$$ing miles away'. There hasn't been a second response."

The same is probably true of Boris.

wooliedyed

jamesdoyle said:

wooliedyed said:

Deltapoll has
Con 26% (+3)
Lab 44% (-2)
Lib Dem 9% (-)
Reform 11% (-1)
SNP 3% (+1)
Green 6% (+1)
Other 2% (-1)
Fieldwork: 22nd-25th March 2024
Sample: 1,589 GB adults
Reversion to mean from last week. One interesting nugget is economis competence score at 44 34 to Labour. 34 is the best Tory return on this metric for over a year. In and of itself a nothingness but the sort of thing they'd need to see more regularly to law back some ground.

But is it not true that this is an area where the Cons traditionally had leads, if not large leads, over Labour? So being at -10 (34 to 44) is not good at all. It may be an 'improvement', but it still won't save them

No it won't save them, but an improvement might see them lose by, say, 10 to 15 instead of much closer to 20 and up. They are a mile on broken glass in bare feet from closing the gap to HP

wooliedyed

DavidL said:

wooliedyed said:

Deltapoll has
Con 26% (+3)
Lab 44% (-2)
Lib Dem 9% (-)
Reform 11% (-1)
SNP 3% (+1)
Green 6% (+1)
Other 2% (-1)
Fieldwork: 22nd-25th March 2024
Sample: 1,589 GB adults
Reversion to mean from last week. One interesting nugget is economis competence score at 44 34 to Labour. 34 is the best Tory return on this metric for over a year. In and of itself a nothingness but the sort of thing they'd need to see more regularly to law back some ground.

Swingback. Or noise.

Nice to see you back.

Thank you. Just Reversion to somewhere around the Deltapoll mean. Find out if last weeks Redfield was also an outlier shortly.