Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Disgraced Tory MP Scott Benton does a Boris Johnson and quits – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 25 in General
imageDisgraced Tory MP Scott Benton does a Boris Johnson and quits – politicalbetting.com

BREAKING: Rishi Sunak faces new by-election nightmare as suspended Tory MP Scott Benton announces resignation – by @ashcowburn https://t.co/oxJpqYNhP3

Read the full story here

«134567

Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
    Now it appears.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,100
    On present polling I am not entirely confident that the Tories will come second here.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,820
    FPT
    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    DavidL said:

    What we need to talk about is s4 of the Hate Crime and Public Order (S) Act 2021 which is due to come into force on 1st April 2024. This is apparently too long for a single post.

    4 Offences of stirring up hatred
    (1) A person commits an offence if—
    (a) the person—
    (i) behaves in a manner that a reasonable person would consider to be threatening, abusive or insulting, or
    (ii) communicates to another person material that a reasonable person would consider to be threatening, abusive or insulting, and
    (b) either—
    (i) in doing so, the person intends to stir up hatred against a group of persons based on the group being defined by reference to race, colour, nationality (including citizenship), or ethnic or national origins, or
    (ii) a reasonable person would consider the behaviour or the communication of the material to be likely to result in hatred being stirred up against such a group.
    (2) A person commits an offence if—
    (a) the person—
    ...
    (ii) communicates to another person material that a reasonable person would consider to be threatening or abusive, and
    (b) in doing so, the person intends to stir up hatred against a group of persons based on the group being defined by reference to a characteristic mentioned in subsection (3).
    (3) The characteristics are—
    (a) age,
    (b) disability,
    (c) religion or, in the case of a social or cultural group, perceived religious affiliation,
    (d) sexual orientation,
    (e) transgender identity,
    (f) variations in sex characteristics.

    I was going to wait for April Fools Day to bring this up.

    It's shocking. The SNP are plunging the county into a form of authoritarian dystopia.

    What push back is happening in Scotland over this. Will it damage the SNP electorally?
    Who knows? The relevant Minister is promising that the police will investigate every complaint, a promise they do not make, for example, in respect of burglary. They can also record any such alleged incident even when they take the view that an actual offence has not occurred.

    As a side not apropos of the conversation the other day...that allegation was investigated or not will then show up on an enhanced dbs check
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
    DavidL said:

    As I have said before I only hope that Sunak does not waste money buying lottery cards.

    Well he evidently was lucky in love, so the old adage applies.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,711
    The by-election should be on May 2nd , the same day as the local elections . Get all the bad news out of the way in one go.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
    At this rate he won't make it to Jan 2025 even if the party were to continue to semi-tolerate him.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,335
    edited March 25
    DavidL said:

    On present polling I am not entirely confident that the Tories will come second here.

    And yet,
    me, FPT

    Well... in 62.4% Leave Wellingborough, Reform got third place and 13.0%. And that was with just about the worst possible Conservative candidate.

    Reform's probelm in a nutshell. They hurt the Conservative vote everywhere but probably can't win anywhere. Their core vote- grumpy old men who don't like the way the world is going and especially don't like their own decrepitude- is too dispersed.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,392
    The Tories will struggle to get 20% I think. Could be pushed into third.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,090
    Who will lose the most resignations before their election, Tories or Republicans?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,100
    Nigelb said:

    At this rate he won't make it to Jan 2025 even if the party were to continue to semi-tolerate him.

    Can't help feeling that if this was 1997 then the government would have fallen by now.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,958
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    As I have said before I only hope that Sunak does not waste money buying lottery cards.

    Well he evidently was lucky in love, so the old adage applies.
    Only if marrying into money counts as being lucky.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,597
    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories will struggle to get 20% I think. Could be pushed into third.

    @Andy_JS has returned to us! I was about to send out a search party. Did you have an adventure?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,180
    fpt
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pagan2 said:

    A question for people who support vat on private school fees. (note no skin in this game whatsoever as wont affect me). Do you also support vat on university fees as well which are also currently exempt and serve a minority of people in the country and also provide the networking effect.

    If not justify why its different

    For god's sake don't introduce logic into it all.

    Like you I couldn't care less it sounds vaguely right not to have a tax exemption for the most privileged folk in the land (bless 'em). I think however that the (un?)intended consequences of the effect on the state sector will be one of those elements that those involved curse to high heaven while the Lab politicians put it away as job done.

    What I wonder do the state sector heads think about the possible influx of more students into their midsts.
    As each of them will arrive with five grand+ funding and, presumably, reasonably engaged parents, most heads will be delighted unless they are heavily over subscribed and Tristram only got in because said parents came to the admissions appeal armed with a top barrister…
    Yes that is probably true. And, without making any assumptions, perhaps those heads might be concerned at the standards those parents had previously expected and might expect at their new school.
    I really don’t think the expensive barrister argument works - any school that is over subscribed fully understands how to handle admission appeals - an expensive barrister isn’t going to help them, the staff member quietly telling you the key phrases to write in the appeal document is
    My point about welcoming pointy-elbowed parents (the example was given that it would help petition govt for funds) is that some of their pointy-elbowedness might be aimed at the school itself if it is thought it doesn't measure up to their previous private school.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,924
    edited March 25
    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pagan2 said:

    A question for people who support vat on private school fees. (note no skin in this game whatsoever as wont affect me). Do you also support vat on university fees as well which are also currently exempt and serve a minority of people in the country and also provide the networking effect.

    If not justify why its different

    For god's sake don't introduce logic into it all.

    Like you I couldn't care less it sounds vaguely right not to have a tax exemption for the most privileged folk in the land (bless 'em). I think however that the (un?)intended consequences of the effect on the state sector will be one of those elements that those involved curse to high heaven while the Lab politicians put it away as job done.

    What I wonder do the state sector heads think about the possible influx of more students into their midsts.
    As each of them will arrive with five grand+ funding and, presumably, reasonably engaged parents, most heads will be delighted unless they are heavily over subscribed and Tristram only got in because said parents came to the admissions appeal armed with a top barrister…
    Yes that is probably true. And, without making any assumptions, perhaps those heads might be concerned at the standards those parents had previously expected and might expect at their new school.
    I really don’t think the expensive barrister argument works - any school that is over subscribed fully understands how to handle admission appeals - an expensive barrister isn’t going to help them, the staff member quietly telling you the key phrases to write in the appeal document is
    My point about welcoming pointy-elbowed parents (the example was given that it would help petition govt for funds) is that some of their pointy-elbowedness might be aimed at the school itself if it is thought it doesn't measure up to their previous private school.
    Most heads would welcome more pushy parents trying to get the school to improve.

    When I was a school governor - it got to the point where I literally created a governing body of parents and former teaching staff because no parents cared
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    DavidL said:

    On present polling I am not entirely confident that the Tories will come second here.

    Will be an interesting test for Reform. Their performance in Wellingborough was not great - the Tories' blundering campaign gave them every possible advantage and they still only got 13%. They had a high media profile but their grassroots effort was pretty useless, they were even observed campaigning in the next door constituency on polling day. Can they get their act together this time?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
    Appeals Court allows Trump to pay a much smaller bond of $175M and gives him 10 days to post it. @MSNBC

    Miscarriage of Justice.

    https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1772284507938340963
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,180
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pagan2 said:

    A question for people who support vat on private school fees. (note no skin in this game whatsoever as wont affect me). Do you also support vat on university fees as well which are also currently exempt and serve a minority of people in the country and also provide the networking effect.

    If not justify why its different

    For god's sake don't introduce logic into it all.

    Like you I couldn't care less it sounds vaguely right not to have a tax exemption for the most privileged folk in the land (bless 'em). I think however that the (un?)intended consequences of the effect on the state sector will be one of those elements that those involved curse to high heaven while the Lab politicians put it away as job done.

    What I wonder do the state sector heads think about the possible influx of more students into their midsts.
    As each of them will arrive with five grand+ funding and, presumably, reasonably engaged parents, most heads will be delighted unless they are heavily over subscribed and Tristram only got in because said parents came to the admissions appeal armed with a top barrister…
    Yes that is probably true. And, without making any assumptions, perhaps those heads might be concerned at the standards those parents had previously expected and might expect at their new school.
    I really don’t think the expensive barrister argument works - any school that is over subscribed fully understands how to handle admission appeals - an expensive barrister isn’t going to help them, the staff member quietly telling you the key phrases to write in the appeal document is
    My point about welcoming pointy-elbowed parents (the example was given that it would help petition govt for funds) is that some of their pointy-elbowedness might be aimed at the school itself if it is thought it doesn't measure up to their previous private school.
    Most heads would welcome more pushy parents trying to get the school to improve.

    When I was a school governor - it got to the point where I literally created a governing body of parents and former teaching staff because no parents cared
    Interesting.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
    In his other court appearance this morning...

    Judge Merchan to Trump's team: "That you don't have a case right now is really disconcerting."

    "You are literally accusing the Manhattan DA's office and the people assigned to this case of prosecutorial misconduct." Merchan says Trump's team doesn't have a single example to support that allegation.

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1772279809034359218
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,335
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pagan2 said:

    A question for people who support vat on private school fees. (note no skin in this game whatsoever as wont affect me). Do you also support vat on university fees as well which are also currently exempt and serve a minority of people in the country and also provide the networking effect.

    If not justify why its different

    For god's sake don't introduce logic into it all.

    Like you I couldn't care less it sounds vaguely right not to have a tax exemption for the most privileged folk in the land (bless 'em). I think however that the (un?)intended consequences of the effect on the state sector will be one of those elements that those involved curse to high heaven while the Lab politicians put it away as job done.

    What I wonder do the state sector heads think about the possible influx of more students into their midsts.
    As each of them will arrive with five grand+ funding and, presumably, reasonably engaged parents, most heads will be delighted unless they are heavily over subscribed and Tristram only got in because said parents came to the admissions appeal armed with a top barrister…
    Yes that is probably true. And, without making any assumptions, perhaps those heads might be concerned at the standards those parents had previously expected and might expect at their new school.
    I really don’t think the expensive barrister argument works - any school that is over subscribed fully understands how to handle admission appeals - an expensive barrister isn’t going to help them, the staff member quietly telling you the key phrases to write in the appeal document is
    My point about welcoming pointy-elbowed parents (the example was given that it would help petition govt for funds) is that some of their pointy-elbowedness might be aimed at the school itself if it is thought it doesn't measure up to their previous private school.
    Most heads would welcome more pushy parents trying to get the school to improve.

    When I was a school governor - it got to the point where I literally created a governing body of parents and former teaching staff because no parents cared
    And to an extent, that's happening already. The kind of middle class parents who would have sent their kids private a couple of generations ago mostly don't now. And that does change the norms in schools in a good way.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
    Court tells "free speech absolutist" Musk to go do one.

    X's case against the CCDH is dismissed, with the judge ruling that the suit was intended to punish CCDH for free speech
    https://twitter.com/kateconger/status/1772278638508912849
  • eekeek Posts: 24,924
    Nigelb said:

    In his other court appearance this morning...

    Judge Merchan to Trump's team: "That you don't have a case right now is really disconcerting."

    "You are literally accusing the Manhattan DA's office and the people assigned to this case of prosecutorial misconduct." Merchan says Trump's team doesn't have a single example to support that allegation.

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1772279809034359218

    Justice Merchan kicker before the morning recess:

    “The People went so far above and beyond what they were required to do that it’s odd that we’re even here.”

    https://x.com/klasfeldreports/status/1772280812576051364?s=46&t=cxkq0jndvkhIwWZCCEL3QQ
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,335
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    On present polling I am not entirely confident that the Tories will come second here.

    Will be an interesting test for Reform. Their performance in Wellingborough was not great - the Tories' blundering campaign gave them every possible advantage and they still only got 13%. They had a high media profile but their grassroots effort was pretty useless, they were even observed campaigning in the next door constituency on polling day. Can they get their act together this time?
    Given the area it really is prime Reform territory. Being frank

    if they can’t make it here, they won’t make it anywhere
    Are you suggesting they should get the former MP for Braintree to be their candidate?

    It's up to you, Newmark, Newmark!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    On present polling I am not entirely confident that the Tories will come second here.

    Will be an interesting test for Reform. Their performance in Wellingborough was not great - the Tories' blundering campaign gave them every possible advantage and they still only got 13%. They had a high media profile but their grassroots effort was pretty useless, they were even observed campaigning in the next door constituency on polling day. Can they get their act together this time?
    Given the area it really is prime Reform territory. Being frank

    if they can’t make it here, they won’t make it anywhere
    Are you suggesting they should get the former MP for Braintree to be their candidate?

    It's up to you, Newmark, Newmark!
    No mark Newmark,
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
    edited March 25
    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Appeals Court allows Trump to pay a much smaller bond of $175M and gives him 10 days to post it. @MSNBC

    Miscarriage of Justice.

    https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1772284507938340963

    Trump continually attacks judges and yet continues to get special treatment . It’s pathetic .
    Here's the ruling:
    https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1772282068795347282

    The judgment against him stands pending appeal. No reason given for the reduction in the bond amount.
    (One has to take the special Trump consideration as read, I guess. And yes, it's pathetic.)
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,728
    Nigelb said:

    Appeals Court allows Trump to pay a much smaller bond of $175M and gives him 10 days to post it. @MSNBC

    Miscarriage of Justice.

    https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1772284507938340963

    Can someone indicate the likely time-frame for this appeal? Assuming that Trump is able to post the $175Mn by the new deadline, what then happens and how soon can the appeal be heard? In my mind it seems plausible that the appeal might reduce the amount of the fine, but it seems unlikely to completely throw out the whole case - so just wondering when Trump will have to actually pay up?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
    Nigelb said:

    Court tells "free speech absolutist" Musk to go do one.

    X's case against the CCDH is dismissed, with the judge ruling that the suit was intended to punish CCDH for free speech
    https://twitter.com/kateconger/status/1772278638508912849

    Musk has repeatedly pledged to reimburse anyone who has had their freedom of speech attacked on this platform.

    Musk should pony up the legal fees for CCDH without being forced to by the court.

    https://twitter.com/RomanValentinus/status/1772281615328202855
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,711
    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Appeals Court allows Trump to pay a much smaller bond of $175M and gives him 10 days to post it. @MSNBC

    Miscarriage of Justice.

    https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1772284507938340963

    Trump continually attacks judges and yet continues to get special treatment . It’s pathetic .
    Here's the ruling:
    https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1772282068795347282

    The judgment against him stands pending appeal. No reason given for the reduction in the bond amount.
    (One has to take the special Trump consideration as read, I guess. And yes, it's pathetic.)
    It looks like 5 judges were overseeing this and the court is likely to have a much more Democrat leaning judiciary given its NY so we can’t really blame this on some pro Trump judge .

  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 635
    As I appear to be too late to be the first to ramp the chances of Reform pushing the Cons into third in Blackpool, can I be the first to ask if there are markets on a) the Reform candidate being found to have made some dodgy social media comments, or b) a scandal engulfing either or both (or both together!) the Lab and Con candidates!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,292
    Boris for Blackpool?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,090
    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Appeals Court allows Trump to pay a much smaller bond of $175M and gives him 10 days to post it. @MSNBC

    Miscarriage of Justice.

    https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1772284507938340963

    Trump continually attacks judges and yet continues to get special treatment . It’s pathetic .
    Here's the ruling:
    https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1772282068795347282

    The judgment against him stands pending appeal. No reason given for the reduction in the bond amount.
    (One has to take the special Trump consideration as read, I guess. And yes, it's pathetic.)
    It looks like 5 judges were overseeing this and the court is likely to have a much more Democrat leaning judiciary given its NY so we can’t really blame this on some pro Trump judge .

    If he can't make $175m within 10 days he is so screwed....
  • eekeek Posts: 24,924
    edited March 25
    Given that the lead time for a by election is 21 working days - I wonder if it will be on May 2nd or another day

    There is a police commissioner election on the 2nd
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,150

    DavidL said:

    On present polling I am not entirely confident that the Tories will come second here.

    Will be an interesting test for Reform. Their performance in Wellingborough was not great - the Tories' blundering campaign gave them every possible advantage and they still only got 13%. They had a high media profile but their grassroots effort was pretty useless, they were even observed campaigning in the next door constituency on polling day. Can they get their act together this time?
    Blackpool South: The Borough of Blackpool wards of Bloomfield, Brunswick, Clifton, Hawes Side, Highfield, Marton, Squires Gate, Stanley, Talbot, Tyldesley, Victoria, and Waterloo.

    Would have thought this was gift week for Reform looking at the constituency...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,292
    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Appeals Court allows Trump to pay a much smaller bond of $175M and gives him 10 days to post it. @MSNBC

    Miscarriage of Justice.

    https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1772284507938340963

    Trump continually attacks judges and yet continues to get special treatment . It’s pathetic .
    Here's the ruling:
    https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1772282068795347282

    The judgment against him stands pending appeal. No reason given for the reduction in the bond amount.
    (One has to take the special Trump consideration as read, I guess. And yes, it's pathetic.)
    I am losing track, is this the one where he's being charged that money because someone accused him of dragging them into a department store changing cubicle and raping them and he denied it, thus unfairly damaging their reputation?
  • eekeek Posts: 24,924
    edited March 25

    DavidL said:

    On present polling I am not entirely confident that the Tories will come second here.

    Will be an interesting test for Reform. Their performance in Wellingborough was not great - the Tories' blundering campaign gave them every possible advantage and they still only got 13%. They had a high media profile but their grassroots effort was pretty useless, they were even observed campaigning in the next door constituency on polling day. Can they get their act together this time?
    Blackpool South: The Borough of Blackpool wards of Bloomfield, Brunswick, Clifton, Hawes Side, Highfield, Marton, Squires Gate, Stanley, Talbot, Tyldesley, Victoria, and Waterloo.

    Would have thought this was gift week for Reform looking at the constituency...
    Yep - Reform should be a strong second place (absolute) minimum.

    Now Reform being first (unlikely) or a strong second place is going to destroy Rishi with Red Wall Troy MPs as all hope is lost.


    But it will equally destroy reform if they don’t do well here - so as a by election it’s going to give us a good idea of how the next election will play out
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,711
    Apparently the Trump appeal re his fraud case will be heard in September .

    It’s very unlikely though that Trump could appeal any loss there to the Supreme Court .
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,090

    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Appeals Court allows Trump to pay a much smaller bond of $175M and gives him 10 days to post it. @MSNBC

    Miscarriage of Justice.

    https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1772284507938340963

    Trump continually attacks judges and yet continues to get special treatment . It’s pathetic .
    Here's the ruling:
    https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1772282068795347282

    The judgment against him stands pending appeal. No reason given for the reduction in the bond amount.
    (One has to take the special Trump consideration as read, I guess. And yes, it's pathetic.)
    I am losing track, is this the one where he's being charged that money because someone accused him of dragging them into a department store changing cubicle and raping them and he denied it, thus unfairly damaging their reputation?
    No, this is the civil fraud case in New York.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,924

    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Appeals Court allows Trump to pay a much smaller bond of $175M and gives him 10 days to post it. @MSNBC

    Miscarriage of Justice.

    https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1772284507938340963

    Trump continually attacks judges and yet continues to get special treatment . It’s pathetic .
    Here's the ruling:
    https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1772282068795347282

    The judgment against him stands pending appeal. No reason given for the reduction in the bond amount.
    (One has to take the special Trump consideration as read, I guess. And yes, it's pathetic.)
    I am losing track, is this the one where he's being charged that money because someone accused him of dragging them into a department store changing cubicle and raping them and he denied it, thus unfairly damaging their reputation?
    Nope this is the obtaining loans via overstating values one
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,292

    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Appeals Court allows Trump to pay a much smaller bond of $175M and gives him 10 days to post it. @MSNBC

    Miscarriage of Justice.

    https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1772284507938340963

    Trump continually attacks judges and yet continues to get special treatment . It’s pathetic .
    Here's the ruling:
    https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1772282068795347282

    The judgment against him stands pending appeal. No reason given for the reduction in the bond amount.
    (One has to take the special Trump consideration as read, I guess. And yes, it's pathetic.)
    I am losing track, is this the one where he's being charged that money because someone accused him of dragging them into a department store changing cubicle and raping them and he denied it, thus unfairly damaging their reputation?
    No, this is the civil fraud case in New York.
    OK ta.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234

    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Appeals Court allows Trump to pay a much smaller bond of $175M and gives him 10 days to post it. @MSNBC

    Miscarriage of Justice.

    https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1772284507938340963

    Trump continually attacks judges and yet continues to get special treatment . It’s pathetic .
    Here's the ruling:
    https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1772282068795347282

    The judgment against him stands pending appeal. No reason given for the reduction in the bond amount.
    (One has to take the special Trump consideration as read, I guess. And yes, it's pathetic.)
    It looks like 5 judges were overseeing this and the court is likely to have a much more Democrat leaning judiciary given its NY so we can’t really blame this on some pro Trump judge .

    If he can't make $175m within 10 days he is so screwed....
    Even Donny Deadbeat ought to be able to raise that much.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,292
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Appeals Court allows Trump to pay a much smaller bond of $175M and gives him 10 days to post it. @MSNBC

    Miscarriage of Justice.

    https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1772284507938340963

    Trump continually attacks judges and yet continues to get special treatment . It’s pathetic .
    Here's the ruling:
    https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1772282068795347282

    The judgment against him stands pending appeal. No reason given for the reduction in the bond amount.
    (One has to take the special Trump consideration as read, I guess. And yes, it's pathetic.)
    I am losing track, is this the one where he's being charged that money because someone accused him of dragging them into a department store changing cubicle and raping them and he denied it, thus unfairly damaging their reputation?
    Nope this is the obtaining loans via overstating values one
    Thanks.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,469
    Off topic: Today, I learned from Wikipedia, is
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh_Genocide_Remembrance_Day

    Whether what happened in 1971 should be called a "genocide" depends on the definition on the word -- but what happened was certainly horrific:
    "Seeking to curtail the Bengali self-determination movement, erstwhile Pakistani president Yahya Khan approved a large-scale military deployment, and in the nine-month-long conflict that ensued, Pakistani soldiers and local pro-Pakistan militias killed between 300,000 and 3,000,000 Bengalis and raped between 200,000 and 400,000 Bengali women in a systematic campaign of mass murder and genocidal sexual violence.[3] In their investigation of the genocide, the Geneva-based International Commission of Jurists concluded that Pakistan's campaign involved the attempt to exterminate or forcibly remove a significant portion of the country's Hindu populace."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh_genocide

    (As the article notes at the beginning, both the factual accuracy and the neutrality of the article are "disputed". I know of no simple way for anyone not a historian specializing in the conflict to resolve those disputes, but if there is an accessible source that any of you can recommend, I would be grateful to know that.)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,089
    Lennon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Appeals Court allows Trump to pay a much smaller bond of $175M and gives him 10 days to post it. @MSNBC

    Miscarriage of Justice.

    https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1772284507938340963

    Can someone indicate the likely time-frame for this appeal? Assuming that Trump is able to post the $175Mn by the new deadline, what then happens and how soon can the appeal be heard? In my mind it seems plausible that the appeal might reduce the amount of the fine, but it seems unlikely to completely throw out the whole case - so just wondering when Trump will have to actually pay up?
    If I read it right, they said September 2024 for the appeals.

    It does start to look as though either (a) the American judicial system is more broken than the Titanic or (b) Trump really *is* getting special treatment due to his politics.

    Of course, the latter does to a great degree imply the former.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,827
    There have been 12 by-elections in the 17 months since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister; the Conservatives have lost half of them (hat-tip:
    @hanwo0dward).
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,958
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    On present polling I am not entirely confident that the Tories will come second here.

    Will be an interesting test for Reform. Their performance in Wellingborough was not great - the Tories' blundering campaign gave them every possible advantage and they still only got 13%. They had a high media profile but their grassroots effort was pretty useless, they were even observed campaigning in the next door constituency on polling day. Can they get their act together this time?
    Given the area it really is prime Reform territory. Being frank

    if they can’t make it here, they won’t make it anywhere
    And if I can make it there
    I'm gonna make it anywhere
    It's up to you
    Blackpool South, Blackpool South.
  • Simon_PeachSimon_Peach Posts: 407
    Surprised Gary Coleman was an independent at the 2019 GE… surely he could have made any of the candidate short lists…
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
    No veto from the US this time.

    UN security council passes resolution calling for immediate ceasefire, as US abstains
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/mar/25/israel-gaza-live-unrwa-aid-north-gaza-un-security-council-vote-ceasefire-middle-east-latest
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,100
    Trump wins his appeal. He now has 10 days to produce a bond for $175m instead of the $454m he is due.
    https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-has-hours-cover-454-million-judgment-or-risk-property-seizure-2024-03-25/

    I predicted this this morning, the American legal system has a real problem with being nasty to rich white guys, but it is still a bitter disappointment.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,711
    Scott_xP said:

    There have been 12 by-elections in the 17 months since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister; the Conservatives have lost half of them (hat-tip:
    @hanwo0dward).

    Only half . The only one I can think of that they won was Bozos old seat .
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,752
    DavidL said:

    Trump wins his appeal. He now has 10 days to produce a bond for $175m instead of the $454m he is due.
    https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-has-hours-cover-454-million-judgment-or-risk-property-seizure-2024-03-25/

    I predicted this this morning, the American legal system has a real problem with being nasty to rich white guys, but it is still a bitter disappointment.

    On this basis all thats going to happen is rich people will leave NY and go to places like Texas and Florida where they dont get hassled.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,043
    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    There have been 12 by-elections in the 17 months since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister; the Conservatives have lost half of them (hat-tip:
    @hanwo0dward).

    Only half . The only one I can think of that they won was Bozos old seat .
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_by-elections_(2010–present)

    6 Tory losses
    1 Tory hold
    1 Labour loss
    3 Labour holds
    1 SNP loss.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,976
    Is this really the Conservatives tactics?

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1772292369972334671?s=46&t=2iv1prQ4P8HyMrM-UX0Dig

    Don’t they realise how tone-deaf this is?
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 778

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pagan2 said:

    A question for people who support vat on private school fees. (note no skin in this game whatsoever as wont affect me). Do you also support vat on university fees as well which are also currently exempt and serve a minority of people in the country and also provide the networking effect.

    If not justify why its different

    For god's sake don't introduce logic into it all.

    Like you I couldn't care less it sounds vaguely right not to have a tax exemption for the most privileged folk in the land (bless 'em). I think however that the (un?)intended consequences of the effect on the state sector will be one of those elements that those involved curse to high heaven while the Lab politicians put it away as job done.

    What I wonder do the state sector heads think about the possible influx of more students into their midsts.
    As each of them will arrive with five grand+ funding and, presumably, reasonably engaged parents, most heads will be delighted unless they are heavily over subscribed and Tristram only got in because said parents came to the admissions appeal armed with a top barrister…
    Yes that is probably true. And, without making any assumptions, perhaps those heads might be concerned at the standards those parents had previously expected and might expect at their new school.
    I really don’t think the expensive barrister argument works - any school that is over subscribed fully understands how to handle admission appeals - an expensive barrister isn’t going to help them, the staff member quietly telling you the key phrases to write in the appeal document is
    My point about welcoming pointy-elbowed parents (the example was given that it would help petition govt for funds) is that some of their pointy-elbowedness might be aimed at the school itself if it is thought it doesn't measure up to their previous private school.
    Most heads would welcome more pushy parents trying to get the school to improve.

    When I was a school governor - it got to the point where I literally created a governing body of parents and former teaching staff because no parents cared
    And to an extent, that's happening already. The kind of middle class parents who would have sent their kids private a couple of generations ago mostly don't now. And that does change the norms in schools in a good way.
    I've heard stories from teacher friends where they have all but begged parents to make a fuss with the Council because that's the only way to improve things.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,089
    edited March 25

    DavidL said:

    Trump wins his appeal. He now has 10 days to produce a bond for $175m instead of the $454m he is due.
    https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-has-hours-cover-454-million-judgment-or-risk-property-seizure-2024-03-25/

    I predicted this this morning, the American legal system has a real problem with being nasty to rich white guys, but it is still a bitter disappointment.

    On this basis all thats going to happen is rich people will leave NY and go to places like Texas and Florida where they dont get hassled.
    That doesn't appear to have helped Trump evade the consequences of his frauds.

    The uselessness of the American legal system is helping him mightily though.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,537

    DavidL said:

    On present polling I am not entirely confident that the Tories will come second here.

    Will be an interesting test for Reform. Their performance in Wellingborough was not great - the Tories' blundering campaign gave them every possible advantage and they still only got 13%. They had a high media profile but their grassroots effort was pretty useless, they were even observed campaigning in the next door constituency on polling day. Can they get their act together this time?
    Reform's performance in Blackpool will be most, er, illuminating...
    Are you saying they need a tower-ing performance?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,752
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Trump wins his appeal. He now has 10 days to produce a bond for $175m instead of the $454m he is due.
    https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-has-hours-cover-454-million-judgment-or-risk-property-seizure-2024-03-25/

    I predicted this this morning, the American legal system has a real problem with being nasty to rich white guys, but it is still a bitter disappointment.

    On this basis all thats going to happen is rich people will leave NY and go to places like Texas and Florida where they dont get hassled.
    That doesn't appear to have helped Trump evade the consequences of his frauds.
    Only becuase he was working under the current system.

    If he had had no investments in NY then he wouldnt have been dragged in to court,

    The other prosecutions are by and large polictically based rather than financial.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,676

    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    There have been 12 by-elections in the 17 months since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister; the Conservatives have lost half of them (hat-tip:
    @hanwo0dward).

    Only half . The only one I can think of that they won was Bozos old seat .
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_by-elections_(2010–present)

    6 Tory losses
    1 Tory hold
    1 Labour loss
    3 Labour holds
    1 SNP loss.
    Strange that your list does not include the Lib Dems.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,888
    ClippP said:

    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    There have been 12 by-elections in the 17 months since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister; the Conservatives have lost half of them (hat-tip:
    @hanwo0dward).

    Only half . The only one I can think of that they won was Bozos old seat .
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_by-elections_(2010–present)

    6 Tory losses
    1 Tory hold
    1 Labour loss
    3 Labour holds
    1 SNP loss.
    Strange that your list does not include the Lib Dems.
    Why would it, they've neither held nor lost a seat.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234

    DavidL said:

    Trump wins his appeal. He now has 10 days to produce a bond for $175m instead of the $454m he is due.
    https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-has-hours-cover-454-million-judgment-or-risk-property-seizure-2024-03-25/

    I predicted this this morning, the American legal system has a real problem with being nasty to rich white guys, but it is still a bitter disappointment.

    On this basis all thats going to happen is rich people will leave NY and go to places like Texas and Florida where they dont get hassled.
    They look kindly on fraud there ?
    (So long as you're rich.)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,677
    Interesting article from Opinium's Adam Drummond on what the Conservatives can do to win back defectors to Reform.

    Summary: they can't. Reform supporters hate the Tories and want things on eg Immigration that are impossible to deliver.

    Loss to Reform isn't even the Conservatives biggest problem. They have lost a similar number to Labour whom they are not going to get back in at least the short term. Their best hope is keep some Don't Knows and hang on to maybe a bit over half their previous vote.

    https://opinium.substack.com/p/for-conservative-to-reform-defectors?triedRedirect=true
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    On present polling I am not entirely confident that the Tories will come second here.

    Will be an interesting test for Reform. Their performance in Wellingborough was not great - the Tories' blundering campaign gave them every possible advantage and they still only got 13%. They had a high media profile but their grassroots effort was pretty useless, they were even observed campaigning in the next door constituency on polling day. Can they get their act together this time?
    Blackpool South: The Borough of Blackpool wards of Bloomfield, Brunswick, Clifton, Hawes Side, Highfield, Marton, Squires Gate, Stanley, Talbot, Tyldesley, Victoria, and Waterloo.

    Would have thought this was gift week for Reform looking at the constituency...
    Yep - Reform should be a strong second place (absolute) minimum.

    Now Reform being first (unlikely) or a strong second place is going to destroy Rishi with Red Wall Troy MPs as all hope is lost.


    But it will equally destroy reform if they don’t do well here - so as a by election it’s going to give us a good idea of how the next election will play out
    Reform's performance at local level does not suggest they have a base in Blackpool - they only put up 5 candidates for 42 council seats last year and got a derisory vote. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Blackpool_Council_election
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
    "In return for my love they are my accusers.."

    Trump says he's Jesus.
    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1772270369400934709
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,978
    FF43 said:

    Interesting article from Opinium's Adam Drummond on what the Conservatives can do to win back defectors to Reform.

    Summary: they can't. Reform supporters hate the Tories and want things on eg Immigration that are impossible to deliver.

    Loss to Reform isn't even the Conservatives biggest problem. They have lost a similar number to Labour whom they are not going to get back in at least the short term. Their best hope is keep some Don't Knows and hang on to maybe a bit over half their previous vote.

    https://opinium.substack.com/p/for-conservative-to-reform-defectors?triedRedirect=true

    A counterfactual to consider: imagine that Blair had won an even bigger landslide in 1997. How would the path back to power have looked for a party of the right?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,752

    FF43 said:

    Interesting article from Opinium's Adam Drummond on what the Conservatives can do to win back defectors to Reform.

    Summary: they can't. Reform supporters hate the Tories and want things on eg Immigration that are impossible to deliver.

    Loss to Reform isn't even the Conservatives biggest problem. They have lost a similar number to Labour whom they are not going to get back in at least the short term. Their best hope is keep some Don't Knows and hang on to maybe a bit over half their previous vote.

    https://opinium.substack.com/p/for-conservative-to-reform-defectors?triedRedirect=true

    A counterfactual to consider: imagine that Blair had won an even bigger landslide in 1997. How would the path back to power have looked for a party of the right?
    We would have invaded Iran as well as Iraq
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,537
    ClippP said:

    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    There have been 12 by-elections in the 17 months since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister; the Conservatives have lost half of them (hat-tip:
    @hanwo0dward).

    Only half . The only one I can think of that they won was Bozos old seat .
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_by-elections_(2010–present)

    6 Tory losses
    1 Tory hold
    1 Labour loss
    3 Labour holds
    1 SNP loss.
    Strange that your list does not include the Lib Dems.
    Surely better put as 12 by-elections with Sunak as PM, seats and net change for each party =

    - Tories 1 (-6)
    - Lab 9 (+5)
    - LDs 1 (+1)
    - Workers Party 1 (+1)
    - SNP 0 (-1)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,677
    FF43 said:

    Interesting article from Opinium's Adam Drummond on what the Conservatives can do to win back defectors to Reform.

    Summary: they can't. Reform supporters hate the Tories and want things on eg Immigration that are impossible to deliver.

    Loss to Reform isn't even the Conservatives biggest problem. They have lost a similar number to Labour whom they are not going to get back in at least the short term. Their best hope is keep some Don't Knows and hang on to maybe a bit over half their previous vote.

    https://opinium.substack.com/p/for-conservative-to-reform-defectors?triedRedirect=true

    Should add ex Conservative Don't Knows tend to Cameronian rather than Faragist. Reform voters are emphatically the opposite.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,924
    Trump hush money trial begins April 15th - 3 weeks today
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,711
    Trump becomes the first ever US President to stand trial in a criminal case .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,130
    FFS. Give us a sodding General Election and end this insane, useless fag end parliament.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,662
    Garrick Club Anecdote Alert

    On my first visit, I was taken there by (now) Lord Roberts of Belgravia and while there a famous royal biographer tried urgently to seduce me

    My more recent visit was less colourful, I confess. Perhaps that’s why I now find it dull
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
    eek said:

    Trump hush money trial begins April 15th - 3 weeks today

    Trump's attorney Todd Blanche asks to file a motion today to delay the trial because of pretrial publicity.

    The judge allows him to do so, and the DA has a week to respond.

    How might that motion fare?

    The judge's parting words:

    "That's fine. See you all on the 15th."

    https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1772296666504147023
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,130
    Nigelb said:

    "In return for my love they are my accusers.."

    Trump says he's Jesus.
    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1772270369400934709

    My view is that if Trump agrees to the POTUS debates he will have a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown in at least one of them and that will be the end of his chances with enough independents to seal another term for Biden.

    I have bet accordingly.

    I doubt sadly he will agree to any debates however.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,078

    Is this really the Conservatives tactics?

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1772292369972334671?s=46&t=2iv1prQ4P8HyMrM-UX0Dig

    Don’t they realise how tone-deaf this is?

    Yes and no. On one hand you can see it for what it is (disingenuous at best when central funding is such a large part of the council's funds) but also a lot of people still (rightly or wrongly) associate Labour with profligacy and poor financial management and it will resonate with them.

    Remember winning elections is not about winning over the intelligent folk on PB...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,150

    Is this really the Conservatives tactics?

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1772292369972334671?s=46&t=2iv1prQ4P8HyMrM-UX0Dig

    Don’t they realise how tone-deaf this is?

    No
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,978

    Nigelb said:

    "In return for my love they are my accusers.."

    Trump says he's Jesus.
    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1772270369400934709

    My view is that if Trump agrees to the POTUS debates he will have a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown in at least one of them and that will be the end of his chances with enough independents to seal another term for Biden.

    I have bet accordingly.

    I doubt sadly he will agree to any debates however.
    There's a big risk that what you consider to be a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown will go down well with that part of the electorate.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,597

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    On present polling I am not entirely confident that the Tories will come second here.

    Will be an interesting test for Reform. Their performance in Wellingborough was not great - the Tories' blundering campaign gave them every possible advantage and they still only got 13%. They had a high media profile but their grassroots effort was pretty useless, they were even observed campaigning in the next door constituency on polling day. Can they get their act together this time?
    Given the area it really is prime Reform territory. Being frank

    if they can’t make it here, they won’t make it anywhere
    Are you suggesting they should get the former MP for Braintree to be their candidate?

    It's up to you, Newmark, Newmark!
    Theeeese....vagabond blues
    (Tara-dara-dah-dah)
    Aaaaare melting awaaay...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900
    Greetings all, been a while. Just popping by and thought I'd say hello.
    In terms of Blackpool South, it's been a low turnout constituency since the turn of the millennium, which may impact. Saw some comment from Luke Tryl of More In Common saying focus group responses there suggest very low esteem for all politicians/disillusionment rampant etc which suggests to me Reform might get a reasonable return if they can capture a plague on all your houses thing, maybe helped by a May 2nd date (local electors who might not have bothered for just a by election).
    Easy Labour regain, they need to go beyond 50% to suggest major progress imo.
    Hope you're all well
  • TazTaz Posts: 11,017
    Nigelb said:

    In his other court appearance this morning...

    Judge Merchan to Trump's team: "That you don't have a case right now is really disconcerting."

    "You are literally accusing the Manhattan DA's office and the people assigned to this case of prosecutorial misconduct." Merchan says Trump's team doesn't have a single example to support that allegation.

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1772279809034359218

    This is the Republican candidate for the Presidency too !!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,130

    Nigelb said:

    "In return for my love they are my accusers.."

    Trump says he's Jesus.
    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1772270369400934709

    My view is that if Trump agrees to the POTUS debates he will have a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown in at least one of them and that will be the end of his chances with enough independents to seal another term for Biden.

    I have bet accordingly.

    I doubt sadly he will agree to any debates however.
    There's a big risk that what you consider to be a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown will go down well with that part of the electorate.
    True enough. We will see soon enough.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
    Great movie.

    This anecdote is new to me.

    John Carpenter on horror classic The Thing: ‘It was an enormous failure and I got fired’

    https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2024/mar/25/john-carpenter-kurt-russell-the-thing-horror-classic
    ...Ennio Morricone wrote the score. I went to see him in Rome. He didn’t speak any English and I didn’t speak any Italian. He played me a couple of things and, through a translator, I said: “In general, can I request you use fewer notes?” He did – and the result is the opening theme...
  • TazTaz Posts: 11,017
    Leon said:

    Garrick Club Anecdote Alert

    On my first visit, I was taken there by (now) Lord Roberts of Belgravia and while there a famous royal biographer tried urgently to seduce me

    My more recent visit was less colourful, I confess. Perhaps that’s why I now find it dull

    Never been. Never going to go. Although I did once meet a former Bolton Centre half at a British Legion 👍
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,827
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    There have been 12 by-elections in the 17 months since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister; the Conservatives have lost half of them (hat-tip:
    @hanwo0dward).

    And does he get any credit on PB for generating this remarkable number of betting opportunities? Not a whisper.
    He is losing the General Election one seat at a time...
  • eekeek Posts: 24,924
    edited March 25
    Question asked on twitter - is this the sort of seat Nigel Farage could be interested in standing in

    Worth noting that Reform currently don’t have a candidate which is a might strange given this by election has been obvious for a while https://www.reformparty.uk/blackpool-south-constituency
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900
    edited March 25
    Deltapoll has
    Con 26% (+3)
    Lab 44% (-2)
    Lib Dem 9% (-)
    Reform 11% (-1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Other 2% (-1)
    Fieldwork: 22nd-25th March 2024
    Sample: 1,589 GB adults
    Reversion to mean from last week. One interesting nugget is economic competence score at 44 34 to Labour. 34 is the best Tory return on this metric for over a year. In and of itself a nothingness but the sort of thing they'd need to see more regularly to claw back some ground.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,100
    Nigelb said:

    "In return for my love they are my accusers.."

    Trump says he's Jesus.
    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1772270369400934709

    It's true. Every time I hear him speak I think, "Jesus."
  • TazTaz Posts: 11,017

    Surprised Gary Coleman was an independent at the 2019 GE… surely he could have made any of the candidate short lists…

    What you talking about Willis ?
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 635

    Deltapoll has
    Con 26% (+3)
    Lab 44% (-2)
    Lib Dem 9% (-)
    Reform 11% (-1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Other 2% (-1)
    Fieldwork: 22nd-25th March 2024
    Sample: 1,589 GB adults
    Reversion to mean from last week. One interesting nugget is economis competence score at 44 34 to Labour. 34 is the best Tory return on this metric for over a year. In and of itself a nothingness but the sort of thing they'd need to see more regularly to law back some ground.

    But is it not true that this is an area where the Cons traditionally had leads, if not large leads, over Labour? So being at -10 (34 to 44) is not good at all. It may be an 'improvement', but it still won't save them
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900
    eek said:

    Question asked on twitter - is this the sort of seat Nigel Farage could be interested in standing in

    I suspect he would go for Thurrock if he's coming back, he won't stand here.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,100

    Deltapoll has
    Con 26% (+3)
    Lab 44% (-2)
    Lib Dem 9% (-)
    Reform 11% (-1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Other 2% (-1)
    Fieldwork: 22nd-25th March 2024
    Sample: 1,589 GB adults
    Reversion to mean from last week. One interesting nugget is economis competence score at 44 34 to Labour. 34 is the best Tory return on this metric for over a year. In and of itself a nothingness but the sort of thing they'd need to see more regularly to law back some ground.

    Swingback. Or noise.

    Nice to see you back.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,597
    Nigelb said:

    Great movie.

    This anecdote is new to me.

    John Carpenter on horror classic The Thing: ‘It was an enormous failure and I got fired’

    https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2024/mar/25/john-carpenter-kurt-russell-the-thing-horror-classic
    ...Ennio Morricone wrote the score. I went to see him in Rome. He didn’t speak any English and I didn’t speak any Italian. He played me a couple of things and, through a translator, I said: “In general, can I request you use fewer notes?” He did – and the result is the opening theme...

    JC played it at his concerts a few years back

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=e0GUT_H6ubM
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,560
    edited March 25

    Nigelb said:

    "In return for my love they are my accusers.."

    Trump says he's Jesus.
    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1772270369400934709

    My view is that if Trump agrees to the POTUS debates he will have a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown in at least one of them and that will be the end of his chances with enough independents to seal another term for Biden.

    I have bet accordingly.

    I doubt sadly he will agree to any debates however.
    There's a big risk that what you consider to be a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown will go down well with that part of the electorate.
    I think that's a very good point. All the things that should have completely discredited Trump (his indictments, his convictions, his poor business sense, his lack of knowledge of, or even interest in, government, economics, diplomacy, the coup attempt, etc. etc.) have lost him the supporters he wouldn't get anyway - the sane, the sensible and the civilised. Anybody whose votes he could lose from being terrible has already surely deserted him.

    The only way I can see of reducing his support amongst the rest is to cut off the oxygen of publicity from him. That's why they stick with him - he's funny and outrageous. Unfortunately he is a brilliant self-publicist, he makes great copy and he's the candidate for one of the two parties, so I don't think that will happen, this year at least.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    "In return for my love they are my accusers.."

    Trump says he's Jesus.
    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1772270369400934709

    It's true. Every time I hear him speak I think, "Jesus."
    On that basis, he's also shit.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,335
    edited March 25

    eek said:

    Question asked on twitter - is this the sort of seat Nigel Farage could be interested in standing in

    I suspect he would go for Thurrock if he's coming back, he won't stand here.
    As Michele Brown (Mrs Gyles Brandreth) said when her husband told her of his ambitions to become MP for Chester

    "her first response was 'it's f&$$ing miles away'. There hasn't been a second response."

    The same is probably true of Boris.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900

    Deltapoll has
    Con 26% (+3)
    Lab 44% (-2)
    Lib Dem 9% (-)
    Reform 11% (-1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Other 2% (-1)
    Fieldwork: 22nd-25th March 2024
    Sample: 1,589 GB adults
    Reversion to mean from last week. One interesting nugget is economis competence score at 44 34 to Labour. 34 is the best Tory return on this metric for over a year. In and of itself a nothingness but the sort of thing they'd need to see more regularly to law back some ground.

    But is it not true that this is an area where the Cons traditionally had leads, if not large leads, over Labour? So being at -10 (34 to 44) is not good at all. It may be an 'improvement', but it still won't save them
    No it won't save them, but an improvement might see them lose by, say, 10 to 15 instead of much closer to 20 and up. They are a mile on broken glass in bare feet from closing the gap to HP
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900
    edited March 25
    DavidL said:

    Deltapoll has
    Con 26% (+3)
    Lab 44% (-2)
    Lib Dem 9% (-)
    Reform 11% (-1)
    SNP 3% (+1)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Other 2% (-1)
    Fieldwork: 22nd-25th March 2024
    Sample: 1,589 GB adults
    Reversion to mean from last week. One interesting nugget is economis competence score at 44 34 to Labour. 34 is the best Tory return on this metric for over a year. In and of itself a nothingness but the sort of thing they'd need to see more regularly to law back some ground.

    Swingback. Or noise.

    Nice to see you back.
    Thank you. Just Reversion to somewhere around the Deltapoll mean. Find out if last weeks Redfield was also an outlier shortly.
Sign In or Register to comment.