The judgment against him stands pending appeal. No reason given for the reduction in the bond amount. (One has to take the special Trump consideration as read, I guess. And yes, it's pathetic.)
I am losing track, is this the one where he's being charged that money because someone accused him of dragging them into a department store changing cubicle and raping them and he denied it, thus unfairly damaging their reputation?
Find some old rolls of wallpaper in the attic and pin them on the clearest wall in your house and start marking them up with all the different trials. It will help.
On my first visit, I was taken there by (now) Lord Roberts of Belgravia and while there a famous royal biographer tried urgently to seduce me
My more recent visit was less colourful, I confess. Perhaps that’s why I now find it dull
Never been. Never going to go. Although I did once meet a former Bolton Centre half at a British Legion 👍
Honestly you’re not missing much
It’s fairly pompous and up itself and not remotely as fun as the more louche clubs that came later
However the building really is something. Oozes Victorian confidence. Worth a peek
This is true of most london gents clubs in my experience. The only one I’d really like to see but haven’t is Whites - the poshest (or so it likes to believe)
Greetings all, been a while. Just popping by and thought I'd say hello. In terms of Blackpool South, it's been a low turnout constituency since the turn of the millennium, which may impact. Saw some comment from Luke Tryl of More In Common saying focus group responses there suggest very low esteem for all politicians/disillusionment rampant etc which suggests to me Reform might get a reasonable return if they can capture a plague on all your houses thing, maybe helped by a May 2nd date (local electors who might not have bothered for just a by election). Easy Labour regain, they need to go beyond 50% to suggest major progress imo. Hope you're all well
I predicted this this morning, the American legal system has a real problem with being nasty to rich white guys, but it is still a bitter disappointment.
On this basis all thats going to happen is rich people will leave NY and go to places like Texas and Florida where they dont get hassled.
If the fraudsters who won't follow the rule of law leave NY then that's good for NY.
If the polling is correct, Reform should do very well in this seat and should be aiming to push Con into third place?
Yes except Reform don’t seem to have done at all well in the 2023 council elections so may lack any capability to get voters out to actually vote.
Twas why I opined on whether Farage would stand as without that it’s an easy Labour win with 2nd/3rd place unknown. In theory perfect Reform territory but is it a question of all or nothing.
Either way it’s going to reveal a lot about how the next election will play out up north
Greetings all, been a while. Just popping by and thought I'd say hello. In terms of Blackpool South, it's been a low turnout constituency since the turn of the millennium, which may impact. Saw some comment from Luke Tryl of More In Common saying focus group responses there suggest very low esteem for all politicians/disillusionment rampant etc which suggests to me Reform might get a reasonable return if they can capture a plague on all your houses thing, maybe helped by a May 2nd date (local electors who might not have bothered for just a by election). Easy Labour regain, they need to go beyond 50% to suggest major progress imo. Hope you're all well
Really pleased to see you back!
Thanks! Might only be for a bit, I have been lurking for a while checking in once a week or so on the banter
My view is that if Trump agrees to the POTUS debates he will have a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown in at least one of them and that will be the end of his chances with enough independents to seal another term for Biden.
I have bet accordingly.
I doubt sadly he will agree to any debates however.
There's a big risk that what you consider to be a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown will go down well with that part of the electorate.
The part of the electorate that decides elections is not the part of the electorate that loves mad rambling meltdowns.
Reading that Opinium piece linked earlier is reinforcing my view that it's important that the Cons lose badly - really badly - at the GE. There is undeniably a market for a populist, anti-immigrant party. If the Cons lose but not too badly, then there is an increasing danger (imho) that the Cons could be taken over by that faction to become that populist right party. And then, in subsequent elections, the inherent power of the COn brand could help propel that to power. So I think that having the Cons lose really badly would help to break that brand power, so a populist right party taking over the brand wouldn;'t have as much going for them.
My view is that if Trump agrees to the POTUS debates he will have a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown in at least one of them and that will be the end of his chances with enough independents to seal another term for Biden.
I have bet accordingly.
I doubt sadly he will agree to any debates however.
There's a big risk that what you consider to be a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown will go down well with that part of the electorate.
The part of the electorate that decides elections is not the part of the electorate that loves mad rambling meltdowns.
On my first visit, I was taken there by (now) Lord Roberts of Belgravia and while there a famous royal biographer tried urgently to seduce me
My more recent visit was less colourful, I confess. Perhaps that’s why I now find it dull
Never been. Never going to go. Although I did once meet a former Bolton Centre half at a British Legion 👍
Honestly you’re not missing much
It’s fairly pompous and up itself and not remotely as fun as the more louche clubs that came later
However the building really is something. Oozes Victorian confidence. Worth a peek
This is true of most london gents clubs in my experience. The only one I’d really like to see but haven’t is Whites - the poshest (or so it likes to believe)
I always imagine these places to smell a little musty and be rather sleepy.
On my first visit, I was taken there by (now) Lord Roberts of Belgravia and while there a famous royal biographer tried urgently to seduce me
My more recent visit was less colourful, I confess. Perhaps that’s why I now find it dull
Ah, Andrew Roberts. I shall never forget his piece in the Sunday Times, published the day Princess Diana died. Given his interest in making political predictions, he'd fit in well here:
"If, as Labour hinted in its manifesto, proportional representation is introduced, a Princess's party could win half a million Tory working-class votes, entitling it to a dozen seats in parliament."
A one-time chairman of the Cambridge University Conservative Association too. A true understander of the prole mind. And of FPTP.
My view is that if Trump agrees to the POTUS debates he will have a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown in at least one of them and that will be the end of his chances with enough independents to seal another term for Biden.
I have bet accordingly.
I doubt sadly he will agree to any debates however.
There's a big risk that what you consider to be a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown will go down well with that part of the electorate.
It would go down very well with his supporters. Less so with independents.
The judgment against him stands pending appeal. No reason given for the reduction in the bond amount. (One has to take the special Trump consideration as read, I guess. And yes, it's pathetic.)
I am losing track, is this the one where he's being charged that money because someone accused him of dragging them into a department store changing cubicle and raping them and he denied it, thus unfairly damaging their reputation?
If he simply denied it, he wouldn't be up on trial. One can disagree with a judgement.
It was when he called her "unhinged", "delusional" and the like, that he ended up defaming her.
My view is that if Trump agrees to the POTUS debates he will have a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown in at least one of them and that will be the end of his chances with enough independents to seal another term for Biden.
I have bet accordingly.
I doubt sadly he will agree to any debates however.
There's a big risk that what you consider to be a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown will go down well with that part of the electorate.
It would go down very well with his supporters. Less so with independents.
A question for people who support vat on private school fees. (note no skin in this game whatsoever as wont affect me). Do you also support vat on university fees as well which are also currently exempt and serve a minority of people in the country and also provide the networking effect.
If not justify why its different
For god's sake don't introduce logic into it all.
Like you I couldn't care less it sounds vaguely right not to have a tax exemption for the most privileged folk in the land (bless 'em). I think however that the (un?)intended consequences of the effect on the state sector will be one of those elements that those involved curse to high heaven while the Lab politicians put it away as job done.
What I wonder do the state sector heads think about the possible influx of more students into their midsts.
As each of them will arrive with five grand+ funding and, presumably, reasonably engaged parents, most heads will be delighted unless they are heavily over subscribed and Tristram only got in because said parents came to the admissions appeal armed with a top barrister…
Yes that is probably true. And, without making any assumptions, perhaps those heads might be concerned at the standards those parents had previously expected and might expect at their new school.
I really don’t think the expensive barrister argument works - any school that is over subscribed fully understands how to handle admission appeals - an expensive barrister isn’t going to help them, the staff member quietly telling you the key phrases to write in the appeal document is
My point about welcoming pointy-elbowed parents (the example was given that it would help petition govt for funds) is that some of their pointy-elbowedness might be aimed at the school itself if it is thought it doesn't measure up to their previous private school.
Pretty much all heads would love pushy parents who get involved in aiming for higher standards. They would be pushing at an open door.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton Labour leads by 20%.
Westminster Voting Intention (24 March):
Labour 42% (-5) Conservative 22% (+1) Reform UK 14% (–) Liberal Democrat 12% (+4) Green 6% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 17 March
Tories do seem to have lost some ground to Reform of late, a point or two swing perhaps, labour are closer to 40 than high 40s now overall I think. My current reading is Labour will get a 2001 type return in vote % with the scale of the Tory defeat determined by 1) how far Reforms VI translates into nationwide support (if they get 14% nationally there is no way they will get zero seats for example) 2) how well they hold the Blue Wall and rural seats
I think a result of 41 29 LD 11 Reform 9 Green 4 or thereabouts is quite likely
Whether what happened in 1971 should be called a "genocide" depends on the definition on the word -- but what happened was certainly horrific: "Seeking to curtail the Bengali self-determination movement, erstwhile Pakistani president Yahya Khan approved a large-scale military deployment, and in the nine-month-long conflict that ensued, Pakistani soldiers and local pro-Pakistan militias killed between 300,000 and 3,000,000 Bengalis and raped between 200,000 and 400,000 Bengali women in a systematic campaign of mass murder and genocidal sexual violence.[3] In their investigation of the genocide, the Geneva-based International Commission of Jurists concluded that Pakistan's campaign involved the attempt to exterminate or forcibly remove a significant portion of the country's Hindu populace." source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh_genocide
(As the article notes at the beginning, both the factual accuracy and the neutrality of the article are "disputed". I know of no simple way for anyone not a historian specializing in the conflict to resolve those disputes, but if there is an accessible source that any of you can recommend, I would be grateful to know that.)
My Dad went out to the country to provide abortions for women who had become pregnant following these rapes. He had horrific stories.
My view is that if Trump agrees to the POTUS debates he will have a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown in at least one of them and that will be the end of his chances with enough independents to seal another term for Biden.
I have bet accordingly.
I doubt sadly he will agree to any debates however.
There's a big risk that what you consider to be a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown will go down well with that part of the electorate.
It would go down very well with his supporters. Less so with independents.
And given the historical bias of independents to support the GOP candidate (as Democrat leaners are more likely to self identify as Democrat) that's a poor result for Trump.
On my first visit, I was taken there by (now) Lord Roberts of Belgravia and while there a famous royal biographer tried urgently to seduce me
My more recent visit was less colourful, I confess. Perhaps that’s why I now find it dull
Never been. Never going to go. Although I did once meet a former Bolton Centre half at a British Legion 👍
Honestly you’re not missing much
It’s fairly pompous and up itself and not remotely as fun as the more louche clubs that came later
However the building really is something. Oozes Victorian confidence. Worth a peek
This is true of most london gents clubs in my experience. The only one I’d really like to see but haven’t is Whites - the poshest (or so it likes to believe)
I always imagine these places to smell a little musty and be rather sleepy.
Yes, inside they're usually like a cross between one of the poorer Oxbridge colleges and an old people's home. The Groucho club seemed to be full of w*nkers as you might expect, but they did at least appear to be awake. The one that I've been to that I did like the look of was the Special Forces Club, which has allowed women to join since it was set up in the 1940s. Unfortunately I don't think I am likely to qualify for membership.
Greetings all, been a while. Just popping by and thought I'd say hello. In terms of Blackpool South, it's been a low turnout constituency since the turn of the millennium, which may impact. Saw some comment from Luke Tryl of More In Common saying focus group responses there suggest very low esteem for all politicians/disillusionment rampant etc which suggests to me Reform might get a reasonable return if they can capture a plague on all your houses thing, maybe helped by a May 2nd date (local electors who might not have bothered for just a by election). Easy Labour regain, they need to go beyond 50% to suggest major progress imo. Hope you're all well
Really pleased to see you back!
Thanks! Might only be for a bit, I have been lurking for a while checking in once a week or so on the banter
If Reform put up a decent, non mad AND manage not to say anything totally bananas and capture the "plague on all your houses" vote they might possibly get a good third place. But as noted, they don't have a base of much to work from in Blackpool. Given that it was a strong leave area, so you never know. If they can get the leave vote motivated it might work. I can't see them getting better than a Wellingborough style result come the by-election, likely to be held on May 2nd. I'd suggest a solid, but not spectacular Lab gain here, with something like a 7000 maj.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton Labour leads by 20%.
Westminster Voting Intention (24 March):
Labour 42% (-5) Conservative 22% (+1) Reform UK 14% (–) Liberal Democrat 12% (+4) Green 6% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 17 March
Tories do seem to have lost some ground to Reform of late, a point or two swing perhaps, labour are closer to 40 than high 40s now overall I think. My current reading is Labour will get a 2001 type return in vote % with the scale of the Tory defeat determined by 1) how far Reforms VI translates into nationwide support (if they get 14% nationally there is no way they will get zero seats for example) 2) how well they hold the Blue Wall and rural seats
I think a result of 41 29 LD 11 Reform 9 Green 4 or thereabouts is quite likely
R&W wobble around all over the place on individual party VI. There obviously hasn't really been a Lib Dem surge in the last week, or a Labour collapse.
As always the combined bloc totals are your friend: LLG:RefCon has gone from 61:35 last week to 60:36 now. No real movement.
My view is that if Trump agrees to the POTUS debates he will have a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown in at least one of them and that will be the end of his chances with enough independents to seal another term for Biden.
I have bet accordingly.
I doubt sadly he will agree to any debates however.
There's a big risk that what you consider to be a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown will go down well with that part of the electorate.
It would go down very well with his supporters. Less so with independents.
And given the historical bias of independents to support the GOP candidate (as Democrat leaners are more likely to self identify as Democrat) that's a poor result for Trump.
My view is that if Trump agrees to the POTUS debates he will have a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown in at least one of them and that will be the end of his chances with enough independents to seal another term for Biden.
I have bet accordingly.
I doubt sadly he will agree to any debates however.
There's a big risk that what you consider to be a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown will go down well with that part of the electorate.
It would go down very well with his supporters. Less so with independents.
And given the historical bias of independents to support the GOP candidate (as Democrat leaners are more likely to self identify as Democrat) that's a poor result for Trump.
That works out to a 53/47 win in the popular vote. Hardly a poor result for Trump. He'll win a landslide in the electoral college if that's the final result.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton Labour leads by 20%.
Westminster Voting Intention (24 March):
Labour 42% (-5) Conservative 22% (+1) Reform UK 14% (–) Liberal Democrat 12% (+4) Green 6% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 17 March
LibDem surge! The Daveygasm is on!
That is of course very close on Lab and Ref to the totals in the recent wisdom of crowds survey (Lab 41, LD 13). Very different on the right wing parties though.
This is the first time that a recall petition has been started and then cancelled. Some MPs have seen the recall petition through to its conclusion (failed petition or by-election), others have resigned in the face of a petition, but Benton is the first to let the petition start and then resign. This has unnecessarily cost the local authority a bunch of money, of course.
Interesting article from Opinium's Adam Drummond on what the Conservatives can do to win back defectors to Reform.
Summary: they can't. Reform supporters hate the Tories and want things on eg Immigration that are impossible to deliver.
Loss to Reform isn't even the Conservatives biggest problem. They have lost a similar number to Labour whom they are not going to get back in at least the short term. Their best hope is keep some Don't Knows and hang on to maybe a bit over half their previous vote.
Should add ex Conservative Don't Knows tend to Cameronian rather than Faragist. Reform voters are emphatically the opposite.
There are extremely desperate contortions on the part of wet faction supporters within the Tories and Labour supporters terrified of losing Sunak that the Boris red wall coalition was a one-off, an aberration, unachievable again, requires 'undeliverable' policies. It's all a specious load of testicles on a plate aimed at saving Sunak's sorry hide.
My view is that if Trump agrees to the POTUS debates he will have a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown in at least one of them and that will be the end of his chances with enough independents to seal another term for Biden.
I have bet accordingly.
I doubt sadly he will agree to any debates however.
There's a big risk that what you consider to be a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown will go down well with that part of the electorate.
It would go down very well with his supporters. Less so with independents.
And given the historical bias of independents to support the GOP candidate (as Democrat leaners are more likely to self identify as Democrat) that's a poor result for Trump.
That works out to a 53/47 win in the popular vote. Hardly a poor result for Trump. He'll win a landslide in the electoral college if that's the final result.
The question is whether Trump having a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown in the debate will endear independents to him, not whether independents are currently supportive. I assume there is a reason they are independents rather than fully signed up MAGA.
My view is that if Trump agrees to the POTUS debates he will have a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown in at least one of them and that will be the end of his chances with enough independents to seal another term for Biden.
I have bet accordingly.
I doubt sadly he will agree to any debates however.
There's a big risk that what you consider to be a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown will go down well with that part of the electorate.
It would go down very well with his supporters. Less so with independents.
And given the historical bias of independents to support the GOP candidate (as Democrat leaners are more likely to self identify as Democrat) that's a poor result for Trump.
That works out to a 53/47 win in the popular vote. Hardly a poor result for Trump. He'll win a landslide in the electoral college if that's the final result.
The question is whether Trump having a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown in the debate will endear independents to him, not whether independents are currently supportive. I assume there is a reason they are independents rather than fully signed up MAGA.
They are currently supporting him despite everything. My point is that people who find that unbelievable aren't best placed to judge how they will respond to Trump’s performance in the debates.
If the polling is correct, Reform should do very well in this seat and should be aiming to push Con into third place?
Yes except Reform don’t seem to have done at all well in the 2023 council elections so may lack any capability to get voters out to actually vote.
Twas why I opined on whether Farage would stand as without that it’s an easy Labour win with 2nd/3rd place unknown. In theory perfect Reform territory but is it a question of all or nothing.
Either way it’s going to reveal a lot about how the next election will play out up north
Activists think their door knocking has a result, most people I know to honest (and they are like the majority of the country apolitical) think they are a pain in the ass and more of a turn off than yeah we will vote for you.
Interesting article from Opinium's Adam Drummond on what the Conservatives can do to win back defectors to Reform.
Summary: they can't. Reform supporters hate the Tories and want things on eg Immigration that are impossible to deliver.
Loss to Reform isn't even the Conservatives biggest problem. They have lost a similar number to Labour whom they are not going to get back in at least the short term. Their best hope is keep some Don't Knows and hang on to maybe a bit over half their previous vote.
Should add ex Conservative Don't Knows tend to Cameronian rather than Faragist. Reform voters are emphatically the opposite.
There are extremely desperate contortions on the part of wet faction supporters within the Tories and Labour supporters terrified of losing Sunak that the Boris red wall coalition was a one-off, an aberration, unachievable again, requires 'undeliverable' policies. It's all a specious load of testicles on a plate aimed at saving Sunak's sorry hide.
Based on red wall polling one of the major policies it requires is meaningful regional levelling up. Not unachievable but none of our 3 PMs since 2019 seem to have really grabbed that one.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton Labour leads by 20%.
Westminster Voting Intention (24 March):
Labour 42% (-5) Conservative 22% (+1) Reform UK 14% (–) Liberal Democrat 12% (+4) Green 6% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 17 March
Tories do seem to have lost some ground to Reform of late, a point or two swing perhaps, labour are closer to 40 than high 40s now overall I think. My current reading is Labour will get a 2001 type return in vote % with the scale of the Tory defeat determined by 1) how far Reforms VI translates into nationwide support (if they get 14% nationally there is no way they will get zero seats for example) 2) how well they hold the Blue Wall and rural seats
I think a result of 41 29 LD 11 Reform 9 Green 4 or thereabouts is quite likely
I think SKS ends up with fewer votes and a smaller % of the vote than 2017 (12.8m & 40%)
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton Labour leads by 20%.
Westminster Voting Intention (24 March):
Labour 42% (-5) Conservative 22% (+1) Reform UK 14% (–) Liberal Democrat 12% (+4) Green 6% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 17 March
Tories do seem to have lost some ground to Reform of late, a point or two swing perhaps, labour are closer to 40 than high 40s now overall I think. My current reading is Labour will get a 2001 type return in vote % with the scale of the Tory defeat determined by 1) how far Reforms VI translates into nationwide support (if they get 14% nationally there is no way they will get zero seats for example) 2) how well they hold the Blue Wall and rural seats
I think a result of 41 29 LD 11 Reform 9 Green 4 or thereabouts is quite likely
R&W wobble around all over the place on individual party VI. There obviously hasn't really been a Lib Dem surge in the last week, or a Labour collapse.
As always the combined bloc totals are your friend: LLG:RefCon has gone from 61:35 last week to 60:36 now. No real movement.
This is the first time that a recall petition has been started and then cancelled. Some MPs have seen the recall petition through to its conclusion (failed petition or by-election), others have resigned in the face of a petition, but Benton is the first to let the petition start and then resign. This has unnecessarily cost the local authority a bunch of money, of course.
Let's face it, he never seemed the brightest of sparks
Interesting article from Opinium's Adam Drummond on what the Conservatives can do to win back defectors to Reform.
Summary: they can't. Reform supporters hate the Tories and want things on eg Immigration that are impossible to deliver.
Loss to Reform isn't even the Conservatives biggest problem. They have lost a similar number to Labour whom they are not going to get back in at least the short term. Their best hope is keep some Don't Knows and hang on to maybe a bit over half their previous vote.
Should add ex Conservative Don't Knows tend to Cameronian rather than Faragist. Reform voters are emphatically the opposite.
There are extremely desperate contortions on the part of wet faction supporters within the Tories and Labour supporters terrified of losing Sunak that the Boris red wall coalition was a one-off, an aberration, unachievable again, requires 'undeliverable' policies. It's all a specious load of testicles on a plate aimed at saving Sunak's sorry hide.
Based on red wall polling one of the major policies it requires is meaningful regional levelling up. Not unachievable but none of our 3 PMs since 2019 seem to have really grabbed that one.
Greetings all, been a while. Just popping by and thought I'd say hello. In terms of Blackpool South, it's been a low turnout constituency since the turn of the millennium, which may impact. Saw some comment from Luke Tryl of More In Common saying focus group responses there suggest very low esteem for all politicians/disillusionment rampant etc which suggests to me Reform might get a reasonable return if they can capture a plague on all your houses thing, maybe helped by a May 2nd date (local electors who might not have bothered for just a by election). Easy Labour regain, they need to go beyond 50% to suggest major progress imo. Hope you're all well
Really pleased to see you back!
Thanks! Might only be for a bit, I have been lurking for a while checking in once a week or so on the banter
If Reform put up a decent, non mad AND manage not to say anything totally bananas and capture the "plague on all your houses" vote they might possibly get a good third place. But as noted, they don't have a base of much to work from in Blackpool. Given that it was a strong leave area, so you never know. If they can get the leave vote motivated it might work. I can't see them getting better than a Wellingborough style result come the by-election, likely to be held on May 2nd. I'd suggest a solid, but not spectacular Lab gain here, with something like a 7000 maj.
Where on earth are RefUK going to find a decent, non-mad, and reasonably circumspect candidate from amongst their ranks?
Greetings all, been a while. Just popping by and thought I'd say hello. In terms of Blackpool South, it's been a low turnout constituency since the turn of the millennium, which may impact. Saw some comment from Luke Tryl of More In Common saying focus group responses there suggest very low esteem for all politicians/disillusionment rampant etc which suggests to me Reform might get a reasonable return if they can capture a plague on all your houses thing, maybe helped by a May 2nd date (local electors who might not have bothered for just a by election). Easy Labour regain, they need to go beyond 50% to suggest major progress imo. Hope you're all well
Really pleased to see you back!
Thanks! Might only be for a bit, I have been lurking for a while checking in once a week or so on the banter
If Reform put up a decent, non mad AND manage not to say anything totally bananas and capture the "plague on all your houses" vote they might possibly get a good third place. But as noted, they don't have a base of much to work from in Blackpool. Given that it was a strong leave area, so you never know. If they can get the leave vote motivated it might work. I can't see them getting better than a Wellingborough style result come the by-election, likely to be held on May 2nd. I'd suggest a solid, but not spectacular Lab gain here, with something like a 7000 maj.
Where on earth are RefUK going to find a decent, non-mad, and reasonably circumspect candidate from amongst their ranks?
Greetings all, been a while. Just popping by and thought I'd say hello. In terms of Blackpool South, it's been a low turnout constituency since the turn of the millennium, which may impact. Saw some comment from Luke Tryl of More In Common saying focus group responses there suggest very low esteem for all politicians/disillusionment rampant etc which suggests to me Reform might get a reasonable return if they can capture a plague on all your houses thing, maybe helped by a May 2nd date (local electors who might not have bothered for just a by election). Easy Labour regain, they need to go beyond 50% to suggest major progress imo. Hope you're all well
Really pleased to see you back!
Thanks! Might only be for a bit, I have been lurking for a while checking in once a week or so on the banter
If Reform put up a decent, non mad AND manage not to say anything totally bananas and capture the "plague on all your houses" vote they might possibly get a good third place. But as noted, they don't have a base of much to work from in Blackpool. Given that it was a strong leave area, so you never know. If they can get the leave vote motivated it might work. I can't see them getting better than a Wellingborough style result come the by-election, likely to be held on May 2nd. I'd suggest a solid, but not spectacular Lab gain here, with something like a 7000 maj.
Where on earth are RefUK going to find a decent, non-mad, and reasonably circumspect candidate from amongst their ranks?
I think you're asking a bit much there.
They dont need to as the torys, labour, greens and libdems cant find one either so they are all on a par
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton Labour leads by 20%.
Westminster Voting Intention (24 March):
Labour 42% (-5) Conservative 22% (+1) Reform UK 14% (–) Liberal Democrat 12% (+4) Green 6% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 17 March
Tories do seem to have lost some ground to Reform of late, a point or two swing perhaps, labour are closer to 40 than high 40s now overall I think. My current reading is Labour will get a 2001 type return in vote % with the scale of the Tory defeat determined by 1) how far Reforms VI translates into nationwide support (if they get 14% nationally there is no way they will get zero seats for example) 2) how well they hold the Blue Wall and rural seats
I think a result of 41 29 LD 11 Reform 9 Green 4 or thereabouts is quite likely
I think SKS ends up with fewer votes and a smaller % of the vote than 2017 (12.8m & 40%)
Ah yes, and how was the Corbyn administration? Could you remind me of some of their achievements?
Greetings all, been a while. Just popping by and thought I'd say hello. In terms of Blackpool South, it's been a low turnout constituency since the turn of the millennium, which may impact. Saw some comment from Luke Tryl of More In Common saying focus group responses there suggest very low esteem for all politicians/disillusionment rampant etc which suggests to me Reform might get a reasonable return if they can capture a plague on all your houses thing, maybe helped by a May 2nd date (local electors who might not have bothered for just a by election). Easy Labour regain, they need to go beyond 50% to suggest major progress imo. Hope you're all well
Really pleased to see you back!
Thanks! Might only be for a bit, I have been lurking for a while checking in once a week or so on the banter
If Reform put up a decent, non mad AND manage not to say anything totally bananas and capture the "plague on all your houses" vote they might possibly get a good third place. But as noted, they don't have a base of much to work from in Blackpool. Given that it was a strong leave area, so you never know. If they can get the leave vote motivated it might work. I can't see them getting better than a Wellingborough style result come the by-election, likely to be held on May 2nd. I'd suggest a solid, but not spectacular Lab gain here, with something like a 7000 maj.
Where on earth are RefUK going to find a decent, non-mad, and reasonably circumspect candidate from amongst their ranks?
I think you're asking a bit much there.
It's too high risk for Farage to stand. Fail to win and it deflates Reform totally going in to the GE. I'd try for the best local non-Nige candidate, but Nigel to campaign strongly supporting a win. I also think changing Reform's name to 'Nigel Farage's Reform Party' is worth a few percentage points alone - no other party has that.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton Labour leads by 20%.
Westminster Voting Intention (24 March):
Labour 42% (-5) Conservative 22% (+1) Reform UK 14% (–) Liberal Democrat 12% (+4) Green 6% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 17 March
Tories do seem to have lost some ground to Reform of late, a point or two swing perhaps, labour are closer to 40 than high 40s now overall I think. My current reading is Labour will get a 2001 type return in vote % with the scale of the Tory defeat determined by 1) how far Reforms VI translates into nationwide support (if they get 14% nationally there is no way they will get zero seats for example) 2) how well they hold the Blue Wall and rural seats
I think a result of 41 29 LD 11 Reform 9 Green 4 or thereabouts is quite likely
I think SKS ends up with fewer votes and a smaller % of the vote than 2017 (12.8m & 40%)
Ah yes, and how was the Corbyn administration? Could you remind me of some of their achievements?
I don't actually think our politicians are worse now they have ever been. I suspect the people who laud the giants of the past would find if those giants were functioning in the days of social media and 24 hours news they would actually be shown to be as flawed as our current lot. I just think politicians in general have always been a bit crap but we are only just getting to see behind the curtain as the wizard was revealed in Oz
On my first visit, I was taken there by (now) Lord Roberts of Belgravia and while there a famous royal biographer tried urgently to seduce me
My more recent visit was less colourful, I confess. Perhaps that’s why I now find it dull
Never been. Never going to go. Although I did once meet a former Bolton Centre half at a British Legion 👍
Honestly you’re not missing much
It’s fairly pompous and up itself and not remotely as fun as the more louche clubs that came later
However the building really is something. Oozes Victorian confidence. Worth a peek
This is true of most london gents clubs in my experience. The only one I’d really like to see but haven’t is Whites - the poshest (or so it likes to believe)
I always imagine these places to smell a little musty and be rather sleepy.
Yes, inside they're usually like a cross between one of the poorer Oxbridge colleges and an old people's home. The Groucho club seemed to be full of w*nkers as you might expect, but they did at least appear to be awake. The one that I've been to that I did like the look of was the Special Forces Club, which has allowed women to join since it was set up in the 1940s. Unfortunately I don't think I am likely to qualify for membership.
Due to too much John le Carre I have an impossibly romantic vision of these places as where, over claret and a lamb chop, you'd meet a man called 'Toby' to plot against those who would harm the nation.
On my first visit, I was taken there by (now) Lord Roberts of Belgravia and while there a famous royal biographer tried urgently to seduce me
My more recent visit was less colourful, I confess. Perhaps that’s why I now find it dull
Never been. Never going to go. Although I did once meet a former Bolton Centre half at a British Legion 👍
Honestly you’re not missing much
It’s fairly pompous and up itself and not remotely as fun as the more louche clubs that came later
However the building really is something. Oozes Victorian confidence. Worth a peek
This is true of most london gents clubs in my experience. The only one I’d really like to see but haven’t is Whites - the poshest (or so it likes to believe)
I always imagine these places to smell a little musty and be rather sleepy.
Yes, inside they're usually like a cross between one of the poorer Oxbridge colleges and an old people's home. The Groucho club seemed to be full of w*nkers as you might expect, but they did at least appear to be awake. The one that I've been to that I did like the look of was the Special Forces Club, which has allowed women to join since it was set up in the 1940s. Unfortunately I don't think I am likely to qualify for membership.
The best of them all was Blacks in its magnificent first decade when you really felt anything could happen - thanks to the insane genius of the host, the late Tom Bantock
Soho was wild then. And blacks was the wildest bit. I had sex in public spaces in Blacks. I was far from alone. You were meant to misbehave
It was bought out by businessmen a few years ago and they didn’t understand it and now it has closed entirely
Sic transit Gloria mundi
GROUCHO’s is having a mid revival as people see it as more exclusive than the over expanded soho house. However its still nothing like the old hedonistic soho, yet
Greetings all, been a while. Just popping by and thought I'd say hello. In terms of Blackpool South, it's been a low turnout constituency since the turn of the millennium, which may impact. Saw some comment from Luke Tryl of More In Common saying focus group responses there suggest very low esteem for all politicians/disillusionment rampant etc which suggests to me Reform might get a reasonable return if they can capture a plague on all your houses thing, maybe helped by a May 2nd date (local electors who might not have bothered for just a by election). Easy Labour regain, they need to go beyond 50% to suggest major progress imo. Hope you're all well
Really pleased to see you back!
Thanks! Might only be for a bit, I have been lurking for a while checking in once a week or so on the banter
If Reform put up a decent, non mad AND manage not to say anything totally bananas and capture the "plague on all your houses" vote they might possibly get a good third place. But as noted, they don't have a base of much to work from in Blackpool. Given that it was a strong leave area, so you never know. If they can get the leave vote motivated it might work. I can't see them getting better than a Wellingborough style result come the by-election, likely to be held on May 2nd. I'd suggest a solid, but not spectacular Lab gain here, with something like a 7000 maj.
Where on earth are RefUK going to find a decent, non-mad, and reasonably circumspect candidate from amongst their ranks?
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton Labour leads by 20%.
Westminster Voting Intention (24 March):
Labour 42% (-5) Conservative 22% (+1) Reform UK 14% (–) Liberal Democrat 12% (+4) Green 6% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 17 March
Tories do seem to have lost some ground to Reform of late, a point or two swing perhaps, labour are closer to 40 than high 40s now overall I think. My current reading is Labour will get a 2001 type return in vote % with the scale of the Tory defeat determined by 1) how far Reforms VI translates into nationwide support (if they get 14% nationally there is no way they will get zero seats for example) 2) how well they hold the Blue Wall and rural seats
I think a result of 41 29 LD 11 Reform 9 Green 4 or thereabouts is quite likely
I think SKS ends up with fewer votes and a smaller % of the vote than 2017 (12.8m & 40%)
Ah yes, and how was the Corbyn administration? Could you remind me of some of their achievements?
They didn't screw anything up, so did much better than the Tories tbf.
Some thoughts locally for you to consider or ignore in case I go under the radar again in short order. Not sure if Bunnco still posts but my view of the Norfolk seats at the moment as follows. Norwich North will be a very easy Labour gain, by 10% plus imo. Norwich South will of course be held by Clive Lewis. There were some interesting and amusing twitter rumours he was going to jump ship to the Greens over the 28 billion but that info is just for the giggles, it's not a serious possibility. The interest is if the Greens can match their local election performances and take second here (this is my constituency). The Tories have been stubbornly in the 20% plus and usually towards 30% here without me ever having seen a Tory poster in the constituency (very shy Tories here) but I suspect this is the election the Greens take second and the residual Tory vote begins to disappear. In the county Norfolk North is very tight between Tory and LD regaining, but at the moment I'm leaning LD gain. Of the rest Nofolk South is the most vulnerable and gains Wymondham which may help Labour, but it's also the best LD seat outside Norfolk North which may be enough for the Tories to hold on, toss up. Broadland and Fakenham is a new seat and I think is also a toss up Lab vs Con. Mid Norfolk is a slightly easier seat as it has jettisoned Wymondham which is about a 1.5% swing further to blue on notionals and was slightly better for them anyway so I favour Tory Hold. NW Norfolk should be a Tory hold, whilst it was Lab in 97 they went heavily backwards here afterwards and there's some serious money outside of Lynn. Sw Norfolk is Truss central, even with the complete hatstand they should still hold it, its VERY Tory. That leaves Yarmouth which with is interesting. Brandon Lewis stepping down raises the eyebrow but it's a 20% swing required. Could be a humdinger, it does gain a little of North Norfolk I believe which foes not help Labour. Waveney Valley straddles Nofolk and Suffolk and should be Tory despite the Greens fancying it
Edit - reading that I'm being too positive on Tory chances, so move South and Broadland to Lab gains. I think they'll lose 4 or 5 of the currently held seats and hold 4 or 5
Greetings all, been a while. Just popping by and thought I'd say hello. In terms of Blackpool South, it's been a low turnout constituency since the turn of the millennium, which may impact. Saw some comment from Luke Tryl of More In Common saying focus group responses there suggest very low esteem for all politicians/disillusionment rampant etc which suggests to me Reform might get a reasonable return if they can capture a plague on all your houses thing, maybe helped by a May 2nd date (local electors who might not have bothered for just a by election). Easy Labour regain, they need to go beyond 50% to suggest major progress imo. Hope you're all well
Really pleased to see you back!
Thanks! Might only be for a bit, I have been lurking for a while checking in once a week or so on the banter
If Reform put up a decent, non mad AND manage not to say anything totally bananas and capture the "plague on all your houses" vote they might possibly get a good third place. But as noted, they don't have a base of much to work from in Blackpool. Given that it was a strong leave area, so you never know. If they can get the leave vote motivated it might work. I can't see them getting better than a Wellingborough style result come the by-election, likely to be held on May 2nd. I'd suggest a solid, but not spectacular Lab gain here, with something like a 7000 maj.
My view is that if Trump agrees to the POTUS debates he will have a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown in at least one of them and that will be the end of his chances with enough independents to seal another term for Biden.
I have bet accordingly.
I doubt sadly he will agree to any debates however.
There's a big risk that what you consider to be a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown will go down well with that part of the electorate.
It would go down very well with his supporters. Less so with independents.
And given the historical bias of independents to support the GOP candidate (as Democrat leaners are more likely to self identify as Democrat) that's a poor result for Trump.
That works out to a 53/47 win in the popular vote. Hardly a poor result for Trump. He'll win a landslide in the electoral college if that's the final result.
This is all going to look very different by the end of the summer. I'll do you a (small) bet if you like. As follows -
At midnight on 31st August Donald Trump is NOT the favourite on Betfair exchange for WH24.
Not much change on R&W tonight with last week's high number for Labour and low number for the LD now reversed. The Lab/LD/Green vs Con/Ref numbers are at 60-36 so well in line with other pollsters and the reduced 20 point Labour lead still represents a 16.5% swing from 2019 with the Con-LD swing 11.5%.
Deltapoll a shade better for the Conservatives (+3) with Labour down two and Reform down one. The split on this poll is 59-37 and the headline swing from Conservative to Labour 15.5%.
As is so often the case, a week where little actually happens improves the Government's fortunes marginally.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton Labour leads by 20%.
Westminster Voting Intention (24 March):
Labour 42% (-5) Conservative 22% (+1) Reform UK 14% (–) Liberal Democrat 12% (+4) Green 6% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 17 March
Tories do seem to have lost some ground to Reform of late, a point or two swing perhaps, labour are closer to 40 than high 40s now overall I think. My current reading is Labour will get a 2001 type return in vote % with the scale of the Tory defeat determined by 1) how far Reforms VI translates into nationwide support (if they get 14% nationally there is no way they will get zero seats for example) 2) how well they hold the Blue Wall and rural seats
I think a result of 41 29 LD 11 Reform 9 Green 4 or thereabouts is quite likely
You say there's no way they would get zero with 14%, but it's quite likely Clacton would be the only seat they win again.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton Labour leads by 20%.
Westminster Voting Intention (24 March):
Labour 42% (-5) Conservative 22% (+1) Reform UK 14% (–) Liberal Democrat 12% (+4) Green 6% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 17 March
Tories do seem to have lost some ground to Reform of late, a point or two swing perhaps, labour are closer to 40 than high 40s now overall I think. My current reading is Labour will get a 2001 type return in vote % with the scale of the Tory defeat determined by 1) how far Reforms VI translates into nationwide support (if they get 14% nationally there is no way they will get zero seats for example) 2) how well they hold the Blue Wall and rural seats
I think a result of 41 29 LD 11 Reform 9 Green 4 or thereabouts is quite likely
I think SKS ends up with fewer votes and a smaller % of the vote than 2017 (12.8m & 40%)
Ah yes, and how was the Corbyn administration? Could you remind me of some of their achievements?
I will never understand a focus on percentage or votes devoid of context. Corbyn's unexpectedly decent result in 2017 can be appreciated well enough without the kind of comparisons we still occasionally see, such as arguing 2017 was a better result than 2005.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton Labour leads by 20%.
Westminster Voting Intention (24 March):
Labour 42% (-5) Conservative 22% (+1) Reform UK 14% (–) Liberal Democrat 12% (+4) Green 6% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 17 March
Tories do seem to have lost some ground to Reform of late, a point or two swing perhaps, labour are closer to 40 than high 40s now overall I think. My current reading is Labour will get a 2001 type return in vote % with the scale of the Tory defeat determined by 1) how far Reforms VI translates into nationwide support (if they get 14% nationally there is no way they will get zero seats for example) 2) how well they hold the Blue Wall and rural seats
I think a result of 41 29 LD 11 Reform 9 Green 4 or thereabouts is quite likely
I think SKS ends up with fewer votes and a smaller % of the vote than 2017 (12.8m & 40%)
Ah yes, and how was the Corbyn administration? Could you remind me of some of their achievements?
What has that got to do with what I said
You are already going to be owing me £50 when Biden doesn't increase his margin of the vote in Michigan like you said.
Do you fancy a 2nd £50 charity bet on whether SKS gets 12.8m votes?
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton Labour leads by 20%.
Westminster Voting Intention (24 March):
Labour 42% (-5) Conservative 22% (+1) Reform UK 14% (–) Liberal Democrat 12% (+4) Green 6% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 17 March
Tories do seem to have lost some ground to Reform of late, a point or two swing perhaps, labour are closer to 40 than high 40s now overall I think. My current reading is Labour will get a 2001 type return in vote % with the scale of the Tory defeat determined by 1) how far Reforms VI translates into nationwide support (if they get 14% nationally there is no way they will get zero seats for example) 2) how well they hold the Blue Wall and rural seats
I think a result of 41 29 LD 11 Reform 9 Green 4 or thereabouts is quite likely
You say there's no way they would get zero with 14%, but it's quite likely Clacton would be the only seat they win again.
I think 14% would equate to 4 or 5 seats, there are areas of lower Reform strength like Scotland and London, they also have very little ground game so 14% nationally implies a strong return where they focus what resource they have, UKIP were close to 3 or 4 seats on 12.6% nationally. However I think them getting 14% is very unlikely in any case
Some thoughts locally for you to consider or ignore in case I go under the radar again in short order. Not sure if Bunnco still posts but my view of the Norfolk seats at the moment as follows. Norwich North will be a very easy Labour gain, by 10% plus imo. Norwich South will of course be held by Clive Lewis. There were some interesting and amusing twitter rumours he was going to jump ship to the Greens over the 28 billion but that info is just for the giggles, it's not a serious possibility. The interest is if the Greens can match their local election performances and take second here (this is my constituency). The Tories have been stubbornly in the 20% plus and usually towards 30% here without me ever having seen a Tory poster in the constituency (very shy Tories here) but I suspect this is the election the Greens take second and the residual Tory vote begins to disappear. In the county Norfolk North is very tight between Tory and LD regaining, but at the moment I'm leaning LD gain. Of the rest Nofolk South is the most vulnerable and gains Wymondham which may help Labour, but it's also the best LD seat outside Norfolk North which may be enough for the Tories to hold on, toss up. Broadland and Fakenham is a new seat and I think is also a toss up Lab vs Con. Mid Norfolk is a slightly easier seat as it has jettisoned Wymondham which is about a 1.5% swing further to blue on notionals and was slightly better for them anyway so I favour Tory Hold. NW Norfolk should be a Tory hold, whilst it was Lab in 97 they went heavily backwards here afterwards and there's some serious money outside of Lynn. Sw Norfolk is Truss central, even with the complete hatstand they should still hold it, its VERY Tory. That leaves Yarmouth which with is interesting. Brandon Lewis stepping down raises the eyebrow but it's a 20% swing required. Could be a humdinger, it does gain a little of North Norfolk I believe which foes not help Labour. Waveney Valley straddles Nofolk and Suffolk and should be Tory despite the Greens fancying it
Edit - reading that I'm being too positive on Tory chances, so move South and Broadland to Lab gains. I think they'll lose 4 or 5 of the currently held seats and hold 4 or 5
Well this is all very interesting given that Labour have only ever been a fairly marginal party in this part of the world, apart from 97 and 01. Seems like change is very much in the air though. I think this is the general view across much (not all) of the country though, the general consensus with alot of the public is something like " the Tories have been in 14 years and everything got a lot worse so let's give the others a go". That's a very hard thing to turn around... It's certainly going to be one of the most interesting elections.
Some thoughts locally for you to consider or ignore in case I go under the radar again in short order. Not sure if Bunnco still posts but my view of the Norfolk seats at the moment as follows.
Norwich North will be a very easy Labour gain, by 10% plus imo.
Norwich South will of course be held by Clive Lewis. There were some interesting and amusing twitter rumours he was going to jump ship to the Greens over the 28 billion but that info is just for the giggles, it's not a serious possibility. The interest is if the Greens can match their local election performances and take second here (this is my constituency). The Tories have been stubbornly in the 20% plus and usually towards 30% here without me ever having seen a Tory poster in the constituency (very shy Tories here) but I suspect this is the election the Greens take second and the residual Tory vote begins to disappear.
Norfolk North is very tight between Tory and LD regaining, but at the moment I'm leaning LD gain.
Norfolk South is the most vulnerable and gains Wymondham which may help Labour, but it's also the best LD seat outside Norfolk North which may be enough for the Tories to hold on, toss up.
Broadland and Fakenham is a new seat and I think is also a toss up Lab vs Con.
Mid Norfolk is a clughtly easier seat as it has jettisoned Wymondham which is about a 1.5% swing further to blue on notionals and was slightly better for them anyway so I favour Tory Hold.
NW Norfolk should be a Tory hold, whilst it was Lab in 97 they went heavily backwards here afterwards and there's some serious money outside of Lynn.
Sw Norfolk is Truss central, even with the complete hatstand they should still hold it, its VERY Tory.
Yarmouth which with is interesting. Brandon Lewis stepping down raises the eyebrow but it's a 20% swing required. Could be a humdinger, it does gain a little of North Norfolk I believe which foes not help Labour.
Waveney Valley straddles Nofolk and Suffolk and should be Tory despite the Greens fancying it
So you make it a shift from 8 Con 1 Lab to 5 Con 3 Lab 1 Libdem, with a couple of Tory holds being slightly sketchy.
I'm picking up tensions between County (Tory) and City (Lab) on roads management, from a wheelchair using friend who lives in Norwich. Due to County now (post-cash-crisis) managing City Roads, and doing it in line with Rishi's Hail Mary Pass.
The Cabinet Member (I think) in charge of Highways, Cllr Plant, has dissolved his consultative group and is making unilateral decisions for Norwich about pedestrianisation (Exchange Street depedestrianised) and road junctions (eg Dereham Road / Grapes Hill being completely f*cked up for cycling and walking), with little consultation.
The official statement for Dereham Road / Gapes Hill was "this is not a route promoted for cycling", but it already has 1000 people on cycles using it every day.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton Labour leads by 20%.
Westminster Voting Intention (24 March):
Labour 42% (-5) Conservative 22% (+1) Reform UK 14% (–) Liberal Democrat 12% (+4) Green 6% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 17 March
Tories do seem to have lost some ground to Reform of late, a point or two swing perhaps, labour are closer to 40 than high 40s now overall I think. My current reading is Labour will get a 2001 type return in vote % with the scale of the Tory defeat determined by 1) how far Reforms VI translates into nationwide support (if they get 14% nationally there is no way they will get zero seats for example) 2) how well they hold the Blue Wall and rural seats
I think a result of 41 29 LD 11 Reform 9 Green 4 or thereabouts is quite likely
I think SKS ends up with fewer votes and a smaller % of the vote than 2017 (12.8m & 40%)
Ah yes, and how was the Corbyn administration? Could you remind me of some of their achievements?
What has that got to do with what I said
You are already going to be owing me £50 when Biden doesn't increase his margin of the vote in Michigan like you said.
Do you fancy a 2nd £50 charity bet on whether SKS gets 12.8m votes?
I'll take that. How about £25 that SKS will get more votes than Corbyn, and £25 that SKS will get a higher vote share than Corbyn. Bet void if Starmer isn't Labour leader somehow.
Greetings all, been a while. Just popping by and thought I'd say hello. In terms of Blackpool South, it's been a low turnout constituency since the turn of the millennium, which may impact. Saw some comment from Luke Tryl of More In Common saying focus group responses there suggest very low esteem for all politicians/disillusionment rampant etc which suggests to me Reform might get a reasonable return if they can capture a plague on all your houses thing, maybe helped by a May 2nd date (local electors who might not have bothered for just a by election). Easy Labour regain, they need to go beyond 50% to suggest major progress imo. Hope you're all well
Really pleased to see you back!
Thanks! Might only be for a bit, I have been lurking for a while checking in once a week or so on the banter
If Reform put up a decent, non mad AND manage not to say anything totally bananas and capture the "plague on all your houses" vote they might possibly get a good third place. But as noted, they don't have a base of much to work from in Blackpool. Given that it was a strong leave area, so you never know. If they can get the leave vote motivated it might work. I can't see them getting better than a Wellingborough style result come the by-election, likely to be held on May 2nd. I'd suggest a solid, but not spectacular Lab gain here, with something like a 7000 maj.
Maybe Farage will stand.
Being the chicken shit that he is I doubt it. He'll only stand (again), if it's almost entirely a shoe in. Plus, he seems to want bigger (more profitable) things these days. Vodka sales doing well Nige' ? 😆
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton Labour leads by 20%.
Westminster Voting Intention (24 March):
Labour 42% (-5) Conservative 22% (+1) Reform UK 14% (–) Liberal Democrat 12% (+4) Green 6% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 17 March
Tories do seem to have lost some ground to Reform of late, a point or two swing perhaps, labour are closer to 40 than high 40s now overall I think. My current reading is Labour will get a 2001 type return in vote % with the scale of the Tory defeat determined by 1) how far Reforms VI translates into nationwide support (if they get 14% nationally there is no way they will get zero seats for example) 2) how well they hold the Blue Wall and rural seats
I think a result of 41 29 LD 11 Reform 9 Green 4 or thereabouts is quite likely
I think SKS ends up with fewer votes and a smaller % of the vote than 2017 (12.8m & 40%)
Ah yes, and how was the Corbyn administration? Could you remind me of some of their achievements?
They didn't screw anything up, so did much better than the Tories tbf.
Err, if there is a delay, won't that simply give time for more pre-trial publicity?
Trump has been very successful in obtaining delays in all his criminal trials, even accounting for the fact that some are complex or raise some genuine legal issues (if not as many as he claims). But quite some time ago he ran out of road on decent arguments and the pretexts have been stripped away. Ultimately his 'legal' arguments come down to that there should always be more delays, 'I am immune for everything (even stuff from before I was President)' and 'This is unfair'.
Whilst I don't think conviction is a certainty in the hush money case, nor do I think as many people will turn against him as they should at seeing him on trial, he must be more worried about that than he pretends, given the increasing desperation even on this simpler, smaller scale case. It makes me curious what he can have his lawyers try next to delay this one - they have proven perfectly willing to file motions which will see themselves fined or sanctioned, and clearly any time that it buys for him is a win in his eyes.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton Labour leads by 20%.
Westminster Voting Intention (24 March):
Labour 42% (-5) Conservative 22% (+1) Reform UK 14% (–) Liberal Democrat 12% (+4) Green 6% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 17 March
Tories do seem to have lost some ground to Reform of late, a point or two swing perhaps, labour are closer to 40 than high 40s now overall I think. My current reading is Labour will get a 2001 type return in vote % with the scale of the Tory defeat determined by 1) how far Reforms VI translates into nationwide support (if they get 14% nationally there is no way they will get zero seats for example) 2) how well they hold the Blue Wall and rural seats
I think a result of 41 29 LD 11 Reform 9 Green 4 or thereabouts is quite likely
I think SKS ends up with fewer votes and a smaller % of the vote than 2017 (12.8m & 40%)
Ah yes, and how was the Corbyn administration? Could you remind me of some of their achievements?
What has that got to do with what I said
You are already going to be owing me £50 when Biden doesn't increase his margin of the vote in Michigan like you said.
Do you fancy a 2nd £50 charity bet on whether SKS gets 12.8m votes?
Do you fancy a 2nd £50 charity bet on whether SKS Labour gets 262 seats?
Bet void if SKS is somehow not leader at the election.
Some thoughts locally for you to consider or ignore in case I go under the radar again in short order. Not sure if Bunnco still posts but my view of the Norfolk seats at the moment as follows.
Norwich North will be a very easy Labour gain, by 10% plus imo.
Norwich South will of course be held by Clive Lewis. There were some interesting and amusing twitter rumours he was going to jump ship to the Greens over the 28 billion but that info is just for the giggles, it's not a serious possibility. The interest is if the Greens can match their local election performances and take second here (this is my constituency). The Tories have been stubbornly in the 20% plus and usually towards 30% here without me ever having seen a Tory poster in the constituency (very shy Tories here) but I suspect this is the election the Greens take second and the residual Tory vote begins to disappear.
Norfolk North is very tight between Tory and LD regaining, but at the moment I'm leaning LD gain.
Norfolk South is the most vulnerable and gains Wymondham which may help Labour, but it's also the best LD seat outside Norfolk North which may be enough for the Tories to hold on, toss up.
Broadland and Fakenham is a new seat and I think is also a toss up Lab vs Con.
Mid Norfolk is a clughtly easier seat as it has jettisoned Wymondham which is about a 1.5% swing further to blue on notionals and was slightly better for them anyway so I favour Tory Hold.
NW Norfolk should be a Tory hold, whilst it was Lab in 97 they went heavily backwards here afterwards and there's some serious money outside of Lynn.
Sw Norfolk is Truss central, even with the complete hatstand they should still hold it, its VERY Tory.
Yarmouth which with is interesting. Brandon Lewis stepping down raises the eyebrow but it's a 20% swing required. Could be a humdinger, it does gain a little of North Norfolk I believe which foes not help Labour.
Waveney Valley straddles Nofolk and Suffolk and should be Tory despite the Greens fancying it
So you make it a shift from 8 Con 1 Lab to 5 Con 3 Lab 1 Libdem, with a couple of Tory holds being slightly sketchy.
I'm picking up tensions between County (Tory) and City (Lab) on roads management, from a wheelchair using friend who lives in Norwich. Due to County now (post-cash-crisis) managing City Roads, and doing it in line with Rishi's Hail Mary Pass.
The Cabinet Member (I think) in charge of Highways, Cllr Plant, has dissolved his consultative group and is making unilateral decisions for Norwich about pedestrianisation (Exchange Street depedestrianised) and road junctions (eg Dereham Road / Grapes Hill being completely f*cked up for cycling and walking), with little consultation.
The official statement for Dereham Road / Gapes Hill was "this is not a route promoted for cycling", but it already has 1000 people on cycles using it every day.
Councillor Face Plant.
You get those kind of tensions even when all authorities of the same party.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton Labour leads by 20%.
Westminster Voting Intention (24 March):
Labour 42% (-5) Conservative 22% (+1) Reform UK 14% (–) Liberal Democrat 12% (+4) Green 6% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 17 March
Tories do seem to have lost some ground to Reform of late, a point or two swing perhaps, labour are closer to 40 than high 40s now overall I think. My current reading is Labour will get a 2001 type return in vote % with the scale of the Tory defeat determined by 1) how far Reforms VI translates into nationwide support (if they get 14% nationally there is no way they will get zero seats for example) 2) how well they hold the Blue Wall and rural seats
I think a result of 41 29 LD 11 Reform 9 Green 4 or thereabouts is quite likely
I think SKS ends up with fewer votes and a smaller % of the vote than 2017 (12.8m & 40%)
Ah yes, and how was the Corbyn administration? Could you remind me of some of their achievements?
What has that got to do with what I said
You are already going to be owing me £50 when Biden doesn't increase his margin of the vote in Michigan like you said.
Do you fancy a 2nd £50 charity bet on whether SKS gets 12.8m votes?
I'll take that. How about £25 that SKS will get more votes than Corbyn, and £25 that SKS will get a higher vote share than Corbyn. Bet void if Starmer isn't Labour leader somehow.
Will see if Robert comes back to me as I offered him the 12.8m first.
If he doesnt I will go with yours instead I reckon there is close to zero chance on SKS getting 12.8m but as Tories are so useless there is maybe a 50%/50% chance re the 40% share
Some thoughts locally for you to consider or ignore in case I go under the radar again in short order. Not sure if Bunnco still posts but my view of the Norfolk seats at the moment as follows. Norwich North will be a very easy Labour gain, by 10% plus imo. Norwich South will of course be held by Clive Lewis. There were some interesting and amusing twitter rumours he was going to jump ship to the Greens over the 28 billion but that info is just for the giggles, it's not a serious possibility. The interest is if the Greens can match their local election performances and take second here (this is my constituency). The Tories have been stubbornly in the 20% plus and usually towards 30% here without me ever having seen a Tory poster in the constituency (very shy Tories here) but I suspect this is the election the Greens take second and the residual Tory vote begins to disappear. In the county Norfolk North is very tight between Tory and LD regaining, but at the moment I'm leaning LD gain. Of the rest Nofolk South is the most vulnerable and gains Wymondham which may help Labour, but it's also the best LD seat outside Norfolk North which may be enough for the Tories to hold on, toss up. Broadland and Fakenham is a new seat and I think is also a toss up Lab vs Con. Mid Norfolk is a slightly easier seat as it has jettisoned Wymondham which is about a 1.5% swing further to blue on notionals and was slightly better for them anyway so I favour Tory Hold. NW Norfolk should be a Tory hold, whilst it was Lab in 97 they went heavily backwards here afterwards and there's some serious money outside of Lynn. Sw Norfolk is Truss central, even with the complete hatstand they should still hold it, its VERY Tory. That leaves Yarmouth which with is interesting. Brandon Lewis stepping down raises the eyebrow but it's a 20% swing required. Could be a humdinger, it does gain a little of North Norfolk I believe which foes not help Labour. Waveney Valley straddles Nofolk and Suffolk and should be Tory despite the Greens fancying it
Edit - reading that I'm being too positive on Tory chances, so move South and Broadland to Lab gains. I think they'll lose 4 or 5 of the currently held seats and hold 4 or 5
Well this is all very interesting given that Labour have only ever been a fairly marginal party in this part of the world, apart from 97 and 01. Seems like change is very much in the air though. I think this is the general view across much (not all) of the country though, the general consensus with alot of the public is something like " the Tories have been in 14 years and everything got a lot worse so let's give the others a go". That's a very hard thing to turn around... It's certainly going to be one of the most interesting elections.
Labour have a reasonable history here, indeed the rural seats used to be Labour voting when farms still had large numbers of agricultural workers, they have also had better presence in Yarmouth which was always a marginal and have dominated Norwich city politics seemingly forever. The tide is due to go out on the Tory County hold I think but they'll hold on in half of them probably, yes
The strategist would say that Israel has finally overplayed their hand.
The cynic would note that in at least 1 swing state Biden urgently needs the Arab vote back.
Would this help with them all that much given the preceding support? I think the strategist is probably more right on this one, in that however supportive Biden may be it was never going to be without any qualification whatsoever.
Some thoughts locally for you to consider or ignore in case I go under the radar again in short order. Not sure if Bunnco still posts but my view of the Norfolk seats at the moment as follows.
Norwich North will be a very easy Labour gain, by 10% plus imo.
Norwich South will of course be held by Clive Lewis. There were some interesting and amusing twitter rumours he was going to jump ship to the Greens over the 28 billion but that info is just for the giggles, it's not a serious possibility. The interest is if the Greens can match their local election performances and take second here (this is my constituency). The Tories have been stubbornly in the 20% plus and usually towards 30% here without me ever having seen a Tory poster in the constituency (very shy Tories here) but I suspect this is the election the Greens take second and the residual Tory vote begins to disappear.
Norfolk North is very tight between Tory and LD regaining, but at the moment I'm leaning LD gain.
Norfolk South is the most vulnerable and gains Wymondham which may help Labour, but it's also the best LD seat outside Norfolk North which may be enough for the Tories to hold on, toss up.
Broadland and Fakenham is a new seat and I think is also a toss up Lab vs Con.
Mid Norfolk is a clughtly easier seat as it has jettisoned Wymondham which is about a 1.5% swing further to blue on notionals and was slightly better for them anyway so I favour Tory Hold.
NW Norfolk should be a Tory hold, whilst it was Lab in 97 they went heavily backwards here afterwards and there's some serious money outside of Lynn.
Sw Norfolk is Truss central, even with the complete hatstand they should still hold it, its VERY Tory.
Yarmouth which with is interesting. Brandon Lewis stepping down raises the eyebrow but it's a 20% swing required. Could be a humdinger, it does gain a little of North Norfolk I believe which foes not help Labour.
Waveney Valley straddles Nofolk and Suffolk and should be Tory despite the Greens fancying it
So you make it a shift from 8 Con 1 Lab to 5 Con 3 Lab 1 Libdem, with a couple of Tory holds being slightly sketchy.
I'm picking up tensions between County (Tory) and City (Lab) on roads management, from a wheelchair using friend who lives in Norwich. Due to County now (post-cash-crisis) managing City Roads, and doing it in line with Rishi's Hail Mary Pass.
The Cabinet Member (I think) in charge of Highways, Cllr Plant, has dissolved his consultative group and is making unilateral decisions for Norwich about pedestrianisation (Exchange Street depedestrianised) and road junctions (eg Dereham Road / Grapes Hill being completely f*cked up for cycling and walking), with little consultation.
The official statement for Dereham Road / Gapes Hill was "this is not a route promoted for cycling", but it already has 1000 people on cycles using it every day.
Councillor Face Plant.
5 Con (incl Waveney Valley) 4 Lab, 1 LD but GY could go either way
The judgment against him stands pending appeal. No reason given for the reduction in the bond amount. (One has to take the special Trump consideration as read, I guess. And yes, it's pathetic.)
I am losing track, is this the one where he's being charged that money because someone accused him of dragging them into a department store changing cubicle and raping them and he denied it, thus unfairly damaging their reputation?
If he simply denied it, he wouldn't be up on trial. One can disagree with a judgement.
It was when he called her "unhinged", "delusional" and the like, that he ended up defaming her.
That's a weak judgement. He has been pandered too far too much already.
Any one of hundreds of things he has done would have lost any other indicted suspect their bail privileges. Yet here is - free and abusing everyone in sight.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton Labour leads by 20%.
Westminster Voting Intention (24 March):
Labour 42% (-5) Conservative 22% (+1) Reform UK 14% (–) Liberal Democrat 12% (+4) Green 6% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 17 March
Tories do seem to have lost some ground to Reform of late, a point or two swing perhaps, labour are closer to 40 than high 40s now overall I think. My current reading is Labour will get a 2001 type return in vote % with the scale of the Tory defeat determined by 1) how far Reforms VI translates into nationwide support (if they get 14% nationally there is no way they will get zero seats for example) 2) how well they hold the Blue Wall and rural seats
I think a result of 41 29 LD 11 Reform 9 Green 4 or thereabouts is quite likely
I think Labour and the Tories will both be in the 30's at the election.
Exactly where each is will change dozens of outcomes from current assessments.
The strategist would say that Israel has finally overplayed their hand.
The cynic would note that in at least 1 swing state Biden urgently needs the Arab vote back.
Would this help with them all that much given the preceding support? I think the strategist is probably more right on this one, in that however supportive Biden may be it was never going to be without any qualification whatsoever.
I do think this non vote is about Michigan. It could well be the key state and Biden needs it. I suspect as well as the Muslim vote the younger generation have had enough of Israel’s brutality.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton Labour leads by 20%.
Westminster Voting Intention (24 March):
Labour 42% (-5) Conservative 22% (+1) Reform UK 14% (–) Liberal Democrat 12% (+4) Green 6% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 17 March
Tories do seem to have lost some ground to Reform of late, a point or two swing perhaps, labour are closer to 40 than high 40s now overall I think. My current reading is Labour will get a 2001 type return in vote % with the scale of the Tory defeat determined by 1) how far Reforms VI translates into nationwide support (if they get 14% nationally there is no way they will get zero seats for example) 2) how well they hold the Blue Wall and rural seats
I think a result of 41 29 LD 11 Reform 9 Green 4 or thereabouts is quite likely
I think SKS ends up with fewer votes and a smaller % of the vote than 2017 (12.8m & 40%)
Ah yes, and how was the Corbyn administration? Could you remind me of some of their achievements?
What has that got to do with what I said
You are already going to be owing me £50 when Biden doesn't increase his margin of the vote in Michigan like you said.
Do you fancy a 2nd £50 charity bet on whether SKS gets 12.8m votes?
Do you fancy a 2nd £50 charity bet on whether SKS Labour gets 262 seats?
Bet void if SKS is somehow not leader at the election.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton Labour leads by 20%.
Westminster Voting Intention (24 March):
Labour 42% (-5) Conservative 22% (+1) Reform UK 14% (–) Liberal Democrat 12% (+4) Green 6% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 17 March
Tories do seem to have lost some ground to Reform of late, a point or two swing perhaps, labour are closer to 40 than high 40s now overall I think. My current reading is Labour will get a 2001 type return in vote % with the scale of the Tory defeat determined by 1) how far Reforms VI translates into nationwide support (if they get 14% nationally there is no way they will get zero seats for example) 2) how well they hold the Blue Wall and rural seats
I think a result of 41 29 LD 11 Reform 9 Green 4 or thereabouts is quite likely
I think Labour and the Tories will both be in the 30's at the election.
Exactly where each is will change dozens of outcomes from current assessments.
That's where I was until a few weeks ago, I think the Tories might just scrape 30 if they can avoid being utter tools for a few months but I also think Labour will default into the 40s as I can't see Reform flattering the way the polls suggest and votes have got to go somewhere. A lot depends on how much of a stop Labour vote exists amongst DKs and if it is at all motivated to actually stop Labour
My view is that if Trump agrees to the POTUS debates he will have a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown in at least one of them and that will be the end of his chances with enough independents to seal another term for Biden.
I have bet accordingly.
I doubt sadly he will agree to any debates however.
There's a big risk that what you consider to be a mad, rambling, ranting meltdown will go down well with that part of the electorate.
It would go down very well with his supporters. Less so with independents.
Some thoughts locally for you to consider or ignore in case I go under the radar again in short order. Not sure if Bunnco still posts but my view of the Norfolk seats at the moment as follows. Norwich North will be a very easy Labour gain, by 10% plus imo. Norwich South will of course be held by Clive Lewis. There were some interesting and amusing twitter rumours he was going to jump ship to the Greens over the 28 billion but that info is just for the giggles, it's not a serious possibility. The interest is if the Greens can match their local election performances and take second here (this is my constituency). The Tories have been stubbornly in the 20% plus and usually towards 30% here without me ever having seen a Tory poster in the constituency (very shy Tories here) but I suspect this is the election the Greens take second and the residual Tory vote begins to disappear. In the county Norfolk North is very tight between Tory and LD regaining, but at the moment I'm leaning LD gain. Of the rest Nofolk South is the most vulnerable and gains Wymondham which may help Labour, but it's also the best LD seat outside Norfolk North which may be enough for the Tories to hold on, toss up. Broadland and Fakenham is a new seat and I think is also a toss up Lab vs Con. Mid Norfolk is a slightly easier seat as it has jettisoned Wymondham which is about a 1.5% swing further to blue on notionals and was slightly better for them anyway so I favour Tory Hold. NW Norfolk should be a Tory hold, whilst it was Lab in 97 they went heavily backwards here afterwards and there's some serious money outside of Lynn. Sw Norfolk is Truss central, even with the complete hatstand they should still hold it, its VERY Tory. That leaves Yarmouth which with is interesting. Brandon Lewis stepping down raises the eyebrow but it's a 20% swing required. Could be a humdinger, it does gain a little of North Norfolk I believe which foes not help Labour. Waveney Valley straddles Nofolk and Suffolk and should be Tory despite the Greens fancying it
Edit - reading that I'm being too positive on Tory chances, so move South and Broadland to Lab gains. I think they'll lose 4 or 5 of the currently held seats and hold 4 or 5
Well this is all very interesting given that Labour have only ever been a fairly marginal party in this part of the world, apart from 97 and 01. Seems like change is very much in the air though. I think this is the general view across much (not all) of the country though, the general consensus with alot of the public is something like " the Tories have been in 14 years and everything got a lot worse so let's give the others a go". That's a very hard thing to turn around... It's certainly going to be one of the most interesting elections.
Labour have a reasonable history here, indeed the rural seats used to be Labour voting when farms still had large numbers of agricultural workers, they have also had better presence in Yarmouth which was always a marginal and have dominated Norwich city politics seemingly forever. The tide is due to go out on the Tory County hold I think but they'll hold on in half of them probably, yes
It's fortunate for the Tories that this is not a local election year at Norfolk County.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton Labour leads by 20%.
Westminster Voting Intention (24 March):
Labour 42% (-5) Conservative 22% (+1) Reform UK 14% (–) Liberal Democrat 12% (+4) Green 6% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 17 March
Tories do seem to have lost some ground to Reform of late, a point or two swing perhaps, labour are closer to 40 than high 40s now overall I think. My current reading is Labour will get a 2001 type return in vote % with the scale of the Tory defeat determined by 1) how far Reforms VI translates into nationwide support (if they get 14% nationally there is no way they will get zero seats for example) 2) how well they hold the Blue Wall and rural seats
I think a result of 41 29 LD 11 Reform 9 Green 4 or thereabouts is quite likely
I think SKS ends up with fewer votes and a smaller % of the vote than 2017 (12.8m & 40%)
Ah yes, and how was the Corbyn administration? Could you remind me of some of their achievements?
What has that got to do with what I said
You are already going to be owing me £50 when Biden doesn't increase his margin of the vote in Michigan like you said.
Do you fancy a 2nd £50 charity bet on whether SKS gets 12.8m votes?
Do you fancy a 2nd £50 charity bet on whether SKS Labour gets 262 seats?
Bet void if SKS is somehow not leader at the election.
Of course not he is bound to get over 262 seats.
He is very unlikely to get 12.8m votes imo
Theresa May got MORE votes, and she also won 55 more seats than Jezza.
Some thoughts locally for you to consider or ignore in case I go under the radar again in short order. Not sure if Bunnco still posts but my view of the Norfolk seats at the moment as follows.
Norwich North will be a very easy Labour gain, by 10% plus imo.
Norwich South will of course be held by Clive Lewis. There were some interesting and amusing twitter rumours he was going to jump ship to the Greens over the 28 billion but that info is just for the giggles, it's not a serious possibility. The interest is if the Greens can match their local election performances and take second here (this is my constituency). The Tories have been stubbornly in the 20% plus and usually towards 30% here without me ever having seen a Tory poster in the constituency (very shy Tories here) but I suspect this is the election the Greens take second and the residual Tory vote begins to disappear.
Norfolk North is very tight between Tory and LD regaining, but at the moment I'm leaning LD gain.
Norfolk South is the most vulnerable and gains Wymondham which may help Labour, but it's also the best LD seat outside Norfolk North which may be enough for the Tories to hold on, toss up.
Broadland and Fakenham is a new seat and I think is also a toss up Lab vs Con.
Mid Norfolk is a clughtly easier seat as it has jettisoned Wymondham which is about a 1.5% swing further to blue on notionals and was slightly better for them anyway so I favour Tory Hold.
NW Norfolk should be a Tory hold, whilst it was Lab in 97 they went heavily backwards here afterwards and there's some serious money outside of Lynn.
Sw Norfolk is Truss central, even with the complete hatstand they should still hold it, its VERY Tory.
Yarmouth which with is interesting. Brandon Lewis stepping down raises the eyebrow but it's a 20% swing required. Could be a humdinger, it does gain a little of North Norfolk I believe which foes not help Labour.
Waveney Valley straddles Nofolk and Suffolk and should be Tory despite the Greens fancying it
So you make it a shift from 8 Con 1 Lab to 5 Con 3 Lab 1 Libdem, with a couple of Tory holds being slightly sketchy.
I'm picking up tensions between County (Tory) and City (Lab) on roads management, from a wheelchair using friend who lives in Norwich. Due to County now (post-cash-crisis) managing City Roads, and doing it in line with Rishi's Hail Mary Pass.
The Cabinet Member (I think) in charge of Highways, Cllr Plant, has dissolved his consultative group and is making unilateral decisions for Norwich about pedestrianisation (Exchange Street depedestrianised) and road junctions (eg Dereham Road / Grapes Hill being completely f*cked up for cycling and walking), with little consultation.
The official statement for Dereham Road / Gapes Hill was "this is not a route promoted for cycling", but it already has 1000 people on cycles using it every day.
Councillor Face Plant.
You are Alan Partridge and I claim my five pints of Director's Bitter
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @RedfieldWilton Labour leads by 20%.
Westminster Voting Intention (24 March):
Labour 42% (-5) Conservative 22% (+1) Reform UK 14% (–) Liberal Democrat 12% (+4) Green 6% (–) Scottish National Party 2% (-1) Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 17 March
Tories do seem to have lost some ground to Reform of late, a point or two swing perhaps, labour are closer to 40 than high 40s now overall I think. My current reading is Labour will get a 2001 type return in vote % with the scale of the Tory defeat determined by 1) how far Reforms VI translates into nationwide support (if they get 14% nationally there is no way they will get zero seats for example) 2) how well they hold the Blue Wall and rural seats
I think a result of 41 29 LD 11 Reform 9 Green 4 or thereabouts is quite likely
I think SKS ends up with fewer votes and a smaller % of the vote than 2017 (12.8m & 40%)
Ah yes, and how was the Corbyn administration? Could you remind me of some of their achievements?
I don't actually think our politicians are worse now they have ever been. I suspect the people who laud the giants of the past would find if those giants were functioning in the days of social media and 24 hours news they would actually be shown to be as flawed as our current lot. I just think politicians in general have always been a bit crap but we are only just getting to see behind the curtain as the wizard was revealed in Oz
I think you’re right. The old masters are always treated with reverence, but the lack of social media in the past must have meant they got away with all sorts.
Yes, the judge rejected the defence call for further delay, so the jury will be sworn in on April 15th and the first criminal trial of a former US President will begin
Some thoughts locally for you to consider or ignore in case I go under the radar again in short order. Not sure if Bunnco still posts but my view of the Norfolk seats at the moment as follows. Norwich North will be a very easy Labour gain, by 10% plus imo. Norwich South will of course be held by Clive Lewis. There were some interesting and amusing twitter rumours he was going to jump ship to the Greens over the 28 billion but that info is just for the giggles, it's not a serious possibility. The interest is if the Greens can match their local election performances and take second here (this is my constituency). The Tories have been stubbornly in the 20% plus and usually towards 30% here without me ever having seen a Tory poster in the constituency (very shy Tories here) but I suspect this is the election the Greens take second and the residual Tory vote begins to disappear. In the county Norfolk North is very tight between Tory and LD regaining, but at the moment I'm leaning LD gain. Of the rest Nofolk South is the most vulnerable and gains Wymondham which may help Labour, but it's also the best LD seat outside Norfolk North which may be enough for the Tories to hold on, toss up. Broadland and Fakenham is a new seat and I think is also a toss up Lab vs Con. Mid Norfolk is a slightly easier seat as it has jettisoned Wymondham which is about a 1.5% swing further to blue on notionals and was slightly better for them anyway so I favour Tory Hold. NW Norfolk should be a Tory hold, whilst it was Lab in 97 they went heavily backwards here afterwards and there's some serious money outside of Lynn. Sw Norfolk is Truss central, even with the complete hatstand they should still hold it, its VERY Tory. That leaves Yarmouth which with is interesting. Brandon Lewis stepping down raises the eyebrow but it's a 20% swing required. Could be a humdinger, it does gain a little of North Norfolk I believe which foes not help Labour. Waveney Valley straddles Nofolk and Suffolk and should be Tory despite the Greens fancying it
Edit - reading that I'm being too positive on Tory chances, so move South and Broadland to Lab gains. I think they'll lose 4 or 5 of the currently held seats and hold 4 or 5
Well this is all very interesting given that Labour have only ever been a fairly marginal party in this part of the world, apart from 97 and 01. Seems like change is very much in the air though. I think this is the general view across much (not all) of the country though, the general consensus with alot of the public is something like " the Tories have been in 14 years and everything got a lot worse so let's give the others a go". That's a very hard thing to turn around... It's certainly going to be one of the most interesting elections.
Labour have a reasonable history here, indeed the rural seats used to be Labour voting when farms still had large numbers of agricultural workers, they have also had better presence in Yarmouth which was always a marginal and have dominated Norwich city politics seemingly forever. The tide is due to go out on the Tory County hold I think but they'll hold on in half of them probably, yes
It's fortunate for the Tories that this is not a local election year at Norfolk County.
Comments
It’s fairly pompous and up itself and not remotely as fun as the more louche clubs that came later
However the building really is something. Oozes Victorian confidence. Worth a peek
This is true of most london gents clubs in my experience. The only one I’d really like to see but haven’t is Whites - the poshest (or so it likes to believe)
Twas why I opined on whether Farage would stand as without that it’s an easy Labour win with 2nd/3rd place unknown. In theory perfect Reform territory but is it a question of all or nothing.
Either way it’s going to reveal a lot about how the next election will play out up north
There is undeniably a market for a populist, anti-immigrant party. If the Cons lose but not too badly, then there is an increasing danger (imho) that the Cons could be taken over by that faction to become that populist right party. And then, in subsequent elections, the inherent power of the COn brand could help propel that to power.
So I think that having the Cons lose really badly would help to break that brand power, so a populist right party taking over the brand wouldn;'t have as much going for them.
Every time I see him I think, 'Fuck me.'
@RedfieldWilton
Labour leads by 20%.
Westminster Voting Intention (24 March):
Labour 42% (-5)
Conservative 22% (+1)
Reform UK 14% (–)
Liberal Democrat 12% (+4)
Green 6% (–)
Scottish National Party 2% (-1)
Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 17 March
Edit, I am making this joke before 1st April and I unreservedly withdraw it at that point.
"If, as Labour hinted in its manifesto, proportional representation is introduced, a Princess's party could win half a million Tory working-class votes, entitling it to a dozen seats in parliament."
A one-time chairman of the Cambridge University Conservative Association too. A true understander of the prole mind. And of FPTP.
It was when he called her "unhinged", "delusional" and the like, that he ended up defaming her.
https://www.activote.net/trump-vs-biden-march-2024/
1) how far Reforms VI translates into nationwide support (if they get 14% nationally there is no way they will get zero seats for example)
2) how well they hold the Blue Wall and rural seats
I think a result of 41 29 LD 11 Reform 9 Green 4 or thereabouts is quite likely
Ukraine reportedly shot down two Russian “unique” Zircon missiles
The wreckage will allow experts to assess the technology and capabilities of this Russian hypersonic missile
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1772307654976708619
And given the historical bias of independents to support the GOP candidate (as Democrat leaners are more likely to self identify as Democrat) that's a poor result for Trump.
Sunak v Starmer and Biden v Trump
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1772300004838764858?t=3euMopDcX_mwyChgjf9k0w&s=19
As always the combined bloc totals are your friend: LLG:RefCon has gone from 61:35 last week to 60:36 now. No real movement.
Jesus Christ Benton!
New and worrisome: common household chemicals can directly harm oligodendrocytes, brain health
https://nature.com/articles/s41593-024-01599-2
@NatureNeuro @TesarLab @CWRUSOM
Quarternary ammonium compounds (disinfectants) and organophosphate flame retardants implicated from organoids and expt'l models
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1772312908715708707
I think you're asking a bit much there.
Me: I worry that ready meals are full of chemicals.
Friend: Everything is chemicals.
Soho was wild then. And blacks was the wildest bit. I had sex in public spaces in Blacks. I was far from alone. You were meant to misbehave
It was bought out by businessmen a few years ago and they didn’t understand it and now it has closed entirely
Sic transit Gloria mundi
GROUCHO’s is having a mid revival as people see it as more exclusive than the over expanded soho house. However its still nothing like the old hedonistic soho, yet
Norwich North will be a very easy Labour gain, by 10% plus imo.
Norwich South will of course be held by Clive Lewis. There were some interesting and amusing twitter rumours he was going to jump ship to the Greens over the 28 billion but that info is just for the giggles, it's not a serious possibility. The interest is if the Greens can match their local election performances and take second here (this is my constituency). The Tories have been stubbornly in the 20% plus and usually towards 30% here without me ever having seen a Tory poster in the constituency (very shy Tories here) but I suspect this is the election the Greens take second and the residual Tory vote begins to disappear.
In the county Norfolk North is very tight between Tory and LD regaining, but at the moment I'm leaning LD gain. Of the rest Nofolk South is the most vulnerable and gains Wymondham which may help Labour, but it's also the best LD seat outside Norfolk North which may be enough for the Tories to hold on, toss up. Broadland and Fakenham is a new seat and I think is also a toss up Lab vs Con. Mid Norfolk is a slightly easier seat as it has jettisoned Wymondham which is about a 1.5% swing further to blue on notionals and was slightly better for them anyway so I favour Tory Hold. NW Norfolk should be a Tory hold, whilst it was Lab in 97 they went heavily backwards here afterwards and there's some serious money outside of Lynn. Sw Norfolk is Truss central, even with the complete hatstand they should still hold it, its VERY Tory.
That leaves Yarmouth which with is interesting. Brandon Lewis stepping down raises the eyebrow but it's a 20% swing required. Could be a humdinger, it does gain a little of North Norfolk I believe which foes not help Labour.
Waveney Valley straddles Nofolk and Suffolk and should be Tory despite the Greens fancying it
Edit - reading that I'm being too positive on Tory chances, so move South and Broadland to Lab gains. I think they'll lose 4 or 5 of the currently held seats and hold 4 or 5
At midnight on 31st August Donald Trump is NOT the favourite on Betfair exchange for WH24.
Even money.
Deltapoll a shade better for the Conservatives (+3) with Labour down two and Reform down one. The split on this poll is 59-37 and the headline swing from Conservative to Labour 15.5%.
As is so often the case, a week where little actually happens improves the Government's fortunes marginally.
A 6 from DK in the final over: “that’s experience. You can’t buy it, you need to earn it.”
Just superb.
You are already going to be owing me £50 when Biden doesn't increase his margin of the vote in Michigan like you said.
Do you fancy a 2nd £50 charity bet on whether SKS gets 12.8m votes?
However I think them getting 14% is very unlikely in any case
https://twitter.com/broseph_stalin/status/1772314638937440598/photo/1
I'm picking up tensions between County (Tory) and City (Lab) on roads management, from a wheelchair using friend who lives in Norwich. Due to County now (post-cash-crisis) managing City Roads, and doing it in line with Rishi's Hail Mary Pass.
The Cabinet Member (I think) in charge of Highways, Cllr Plant, has dissolved his consultative group and is making unilateral decisions for Norwich about pedestrianisation (Exchange Street depedestrianised) and road junctions (eg Dereham Road / Grapes Hill being completely f*cked up for cycling and walking), with little consultation.
The official statement for Dereham Road / Gapes Hill was "this is not a route promoted for cycling", but it already has 1000 people on cycles using it every day.
Councillor Face Plant.
How about £25 that SKS will get more votes than Corbyn, and £25 that SKS will get a higher vote share than Corbyn.
Bet void if Starmer isn't Labour leader somehow.
Whilst I don't think conviction is a certainty in the hush money case, nor do I think as many people will turn against him as they should at seeing him on trial, he must be more worried about that than he pretends, given the increasing desperation even on this simpler, smaller scale case. It makes me curious what he can have his lawyers try next to delay this one - they have proven perfectly willing to file motions which will see themselves fined or sanctioned, and clearly any time that it buys for him is a win in his eyes.
Bet void if SKS is somehow not leader at the election.
The cynic would note that in at least 1 swing state Biden urgently needs the Arab vote back. Michigan is in play.
If he doesnt I will go with yours instead I reckon there is close to zero chance on SKS getting 12.8m but as Tories are so useless there is maybe a 50%/50% chance re the 40% share
Any one of hundreds of things he has done would have lost any other indicted suspect their bail privileges. Yet here is - free and abusing everyone in sight.
Exactly where each is will change dozens of outcomes from current assessments.
He is very unlikely to get 12.8m votes imo
I see that you still ignore the 2019 result...
Labour actually held the seat under Ed Miliband so overall on current polls should be an easy Labour gain
https://electionresults.parliament.uk/election/2015-05-07/Results/Location/Constituency/Blackpool South/