The election will be October 17th because any later and Charles isn’t around
However if it’s then there is no chance of a tax change being passed down to workers in a pay pocket
17th October means parliament prorogues no later than 12th September. They'll want an "autumn" statement first in the week before. Which the treasury will need to prepare over the summer which will of course leak out. They'll also want to cancel party conference and try to save some money. And talking about savings, not a penny of the AS bribe will hit people's pay before the election.
Are we sure on the 17th October? They may as well announce that date before the summer recess as you'll be able to see "there will be an election" from space. And as it will fall apart at high speed over the summer, by the time they get there it will be about as robust as that Truss confidence vote on Fracking.
I'm pretty sure the Conservatives make money from their conferences. Corporate booths and sponsored talks abound.
Whose going to bother shopping their wares at this year's Tory conference? They'll all be at Labour's.
All this talk of Christmas when it's only March is bringing me down. Is there a way to move on?
Tomorrow is the spring equinox. It's the start of the six months of the year with the most daylight in the northern hemisphere. That has to be worth celebrating.
Yes just a shame northern and western europe gets such little sunshine in summer compared to places further east. London sunshine hours june 208 july 217 aug 202 Stockholm sunshie nours june 277 july 280 aug 234 Moscow sunshine hours june 299 july 323 aug 242
Much better to be in Stockholm or Moscow during the summer dont you think despite their higher latitude. The UK can be quite dismal.
I am able to find pleasure in mist, fog, cloud and rain. A bit of sun is nice too, from time to time, but I wouldn't have ended up in West Cork if it was the be-all and end-all. Better cheese here than in Moscow, for example.
LostPassword - "I am able to find pleasure in mist, fog, cloud and rain."
I mean, I also sometimes feel a frisson of excitement when looking at the subsamples in an opinion poll (why else am I here) and so I don't think that finding pleasure in the beauty of mist pooled in a river valley, or in the rhythm of rain blown into a windowpane, is the weirdest element of my character.
All this talk of Christmas when it's only March is bringing me down. Is there a way to move on?
Tomorrow is the spring equinox. It's the start of the six months of the year with the most daylight in the northern hemisphere. That has to be worth celebrating.
Yes just a shame northern and western europe gets such little sunshine in summer compared to places further east. London sunshine hours june 208 july 217 aug 202 Stockholm sunshie nours june 277 july 280 aug 234 Moscow sunshine hours june 299 july 323 aug 242
Much better to be in Stockholm or Moscow during the summer dont you think despite their higher latitude. The UK can be quite dismal.
Yeah, nice try.
We Brits may moan about the weather but it's far superior to Moscow's. The freezing in Moscow's winter is far worse than in UK.
I went to Jesus Green lido in Cambridge for a swim this morning. Effing heck, the water was 10 degrees, and even in my wetsuit it felt cold. Some people were swimming in just their trunks...
I never used to feel the cold. As I've got older, I increasingly do.
It looks like the sea temperatures have bottomed out and started their climb towards something tolerable. Last year we waited until the cross-quarter day at the start of May, but it was still a bit cold then.
All this talk of Christmas when it's only March is bringing me down. Is there a way to move on?
Tomorrow is the spring equinox. It's the start of the six months of the year with the most daylight in the northern hemisphere. That has to be worth celebrating.
Yes just a shame northern and western europe gets such little sunshine in summer compared to places further east. London sunshine hours june 208 july 217 aug 202 Stockholm sunshie nours june 277 july 280 aug 234 Moscow sunshine hours june 299 july 323 aug 242
Much better to be in Stockholm or Moscow during the summer dont you think despite their higher latitude. The UK can be quite dismal.
I am able to find pleasure in mist, fog, cloud and rain. A bit of sun is nice too, from time to time, but I wouldn't have ended up in West Cork if it was the be-all and end-all. Better cheese here than in Moscow, for example.
LostPassword - "I am able to find pleasure in mist, fog, cloud and rain."
All this talk of Christmas when it's only March is bringing me down. Is there a way to move on?
Tomorrow is the spring equinox. It's the start of the six months of the year with the most daylight in the northern hemisphere. That has to be worth celebrating.
Yes just a shame northern and western europe gets such little sunshine in summer compared to places further east. London sunshine hours june 208 july 217 aug 202 Stockholm sunshie nours june 277 july 280 aug 234 Moscow sunshine hours june 299 july 323 aug 242
Much better to be in Stockholm or Moscow during the summer dont you think despite their higher latitude. The UK can be quite dismal.
Yeah, nice try.
We Brits may moan about the weather but it's far superior to Moscow's. The freezing in Moscow's winter is far worse than in UK.
I went to Jesus Green lido in Cambridge for a swim this morning. Effing heck, the water was 10 degrees, and even in my wetsuit it felt cold. Some people were swimming in just their trunks...
I never used to feel the cold. As I've got older, I increasingly do.
THE key fact behind the Great American Trek to the Sunbelt.
Decline of Rust Belt economy also major factor. But large part of the Rust due to snow, ice, salt & cinders on roads, etc, etc., etc.
You can be gainfully employed in expanding high-tech sector, living in US Midwest or Northeast . . . and be freezing your aging ass off more often than you really enjoy.
Other key factor in Sunbelt Exodus = AIR CONDITIONING. As anyone who has spent a few weeks there in the dog days of summer (May-Sept in Baton Rouge) well knows.
The election will be October 17th because any later and Charles isn’t around
However if it’s then there is no chance of a tax change being passed down to workers in a pay pocket
17th October means parliament prorogues no later than 12th September. They'll want an "autumn" statement first in the week before. Which the treasury will need to prepare over the summer which will of course leak out. They'll also want to cancel party conference and try to save some money. And talking about savings, not a penny of the AS bribe will hit people's pay before the election.
Are we sure on the 17th October? They may as well announce that date before the summer recess as you'll be able to see "there will be an election" from space. And as it will fall apart at high speed over the summer, by the time they get there it will be about as robust as that Truss confidence vote on Fracking.
I'm pretty sure the Conservatives make money from their conferences. Corporate booths and sponsored talks abound.
Hunt teases the media who go into a spin disecting every word
Unfortunately this will go on and on until the date is called which I think will be the 14th November
All this talk of Christmas when it's only March is bringing me down. Is there a way to move on?
Tomorrow is the spring equinox. It's the start of the six months of the year with the most daylight in the northern hemisphere. That has to be worth celebrating.
Yes just a shame northern and western europe gets such little sunshine in summer compared to places further east. London sunshine hours june 208 july 217 aug 202 Stockholm sunshie nours june 277 july 280 aug 234 Moscow sunshine hours june 299 july 323 aug 242
Much better to be in Stockholm or Moscow during the summer dont you think despite their higher latitude. The UK can be quite dismal.
Yeah, nice try.
We Brits may moan about the weather but it's far superior to Moscow's. The freezing in Moscow's winter is far worse than in UK.
I went to Jesus Green lido in Cambridge for a swim this morning. Effing heck, the water was 10 degrees, and even in my wetsuit it felt cold. Some people were swimming in just their trunks...
I never used to feel the cold. As I've got older, I increasingly do.
It looks like the sea temperatures have bottomed out and started their climb towards something tolerable. Last year we waited until the cross-quarter day at the start of May, but it was still a bit cold then.
Sea temperatures have been consistently above average and yet they are still lower in winter than summer. God forbid that they will increase by so much that they will be warm enough for me to swim all year.
The election will be October 17th because any later and Charles isn’t around
However if it’s then there is no chance of a tax change being passed down to workers in a pay pocket
17th October means parliament prorogues no later than 12th September. They'll want an "autumn" statement first in the week before. Which the treasury will need to prepare over the summer which will of course leak out. They'll also want to cancel party conference and try to save some money. And talking about savings, not a penny of the AS bribe will hit people's pay before the election.
Are we sure on the 17th October? They may as well announce that date before the summer recess as you'll be able to see "there will be an election" from space. And as it will fall apart at high speed over the summer, by the time they get there it will be about as robust as that Truss confidence vote on Fracking.
I'm pretty sure the Conservatives make money from their conferences. Corporate booths and sponsored talks abound.
Whose going to bother shopping their wares at this year's Tory conference? They'll all be at Labour's.
The election will be October 17th because any later and Charles isn’t around
However if it’s then there is no chance of a tax change being passed down to workers in a pay pocket
17th October means parliament prorogues no later than 12th September. They'll want an "autumn" statement first in the week before. Which the treasury will need to prepare over the summer which will of course leak out. They'll also want to cancel party conference and try to save some money. And talking about savings, not a penny of the AS bribe will hit people's pay before the election.
Are we sure on the 17th October? They may as well announce that date before the summer recess as you'll be able to see "there will be an election" from space. And as it will fall apart at high speed over the summer, by the time they get there it will be about as robust as that Truss confidence vote on Fracking.
I'm pretty sure the Conservatives make money from their conferences. Corporate booths and sponsored talks abound.
Whose going to bother shopping their wares at this year's Tory conference? They'll all be at Labour's.
Antique collectors?
2024 Tory merch is likely to have future scarcity value ... but will anyone want it ?
We get this sort of religious shit from tube station operatives quite frequently on their marker pen whiteboards. Usually Christian texts, occasionally something Buddhist, but frankly it’s the same stuff. When they’re not writing live-laugh-love type self help messages
I suspect Isam is fine with Christian texts.
I would not be.
Religion shouldn't be in public spaces.
Good luck with all that cathedral demolishing then...
I'm with Bart of this one. Happy with churches, etc for those that want them, but I don't want religion rammed down my throat in unrelated places.
Another person to join my "end public Christmas displays" club. I'm sure that the strength of your convictions will also apply to this religious holiday as well!
I have no problem with public Christmas displays. Just wondering what that has to do with religion?
Similarly Easter. I enjoy an Easter egg and hot cross bun like the next person as long as religion is not brought into it.
Christmas is inherently religious - just because people claim it is secular doesn't mean that is true or how people receive it.
No it's inherently secular.
You're just ignorant of the subject matter.
Our oldest Christmas traditions predate the birth of Christ. Our newest ones are from this century.
This is disingenuous. Christmas is the holiday it is because of Christianity; as is Easter. They are the significant religious holidays when it comes to dispensation from work and education and are often everywhere, in public and private settings. If you want to interpret it as secular, you can, but then others can interpret quotes from the Hadith or any generally woo quotes from religious or spiritual texts as secular.
They're secular holidays dating back thousands of years.
The early Church bolted their religious stuff onto pre-existing traditions.
The birth of Jesus got moved to December to match with Yule celebrations.
And with Eostre they didn't even change the name!
As above, these claims that Xmas and Easter are transformed pagan holidays are debated.
If there is some influence of pagan religious events, those earlier celebrations are not *secular*. Eostre (a word only actually attested once, in Bede) is a god.
Only debated in the same way that some debate if the earth is curved or flat.
The history is there. The traditions predate the religion. The original religion is no longer followed so all we have left now is secular elements with a new religion bolting its stuff on top.
The Easter bunny is a more traditional Eostre element than the crucifixion. It's not Christian.
No. I’ve presented you with various sources. This idea that Xmas and Easter are just pagan holidays with the serial numbers filed off has its own origins (which IIRC are discussed in the Easter/Eostre video I linked to), but is not accepted by modern historians of religion. There are some links between pre-Christian religions and what became Christian traditions, but Easter and Xmas are inherently Christian holidays.
Watch the Easter/Eostre video. That’s by a historian of religion, using good academic sources.
Sure, but the timing of Xmas and Easter is strikingly similar to pagan festivals of rebirth - the winter solstice and Spring, specifically. Hence eggs, bunnies, holly, ivy and evergreen trees and so on, clearly non-Christian symbolism, being intertwined with the Christian aspects.
From Sermon (2008, DOI 10.2752/175169708X329372):
"Two Easter symbols that are often said to be associated with the goddess Eostre/Ostara are the Easter Egg and Easter Rabbit (originally a hare). However, there is no real evidence to support these claims. The egg is probably the most well known symbol of Easter, and was of great significance to the early Church (Newall 1971: 177–206). Spring eggs heralded the beginning of new life after the cold winter months, and so also symbolized the resurrection of Jesus. By the Middle Ages, it was customary throughout Europe to give decorated eggs on Easter Sunday, when they could finally be eaten after the long Lenten fast (e.g. German Ostereier and French Oeufs de Pâques). In England these colored Easter eggs were also referred to as “Pace” or “Paste” eggs, a name which is again derived from the Latin Pascha. In the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, egg-shaped toys were given to children as presents on Easter Sunday. By the nineteenth century, these Easter gifts included cardboard eggs filled with sweets and the chocolate Easter Egg that we know today.
"The earliest evidence for the Easter Hare (Osterhase) is recorded in 1678 in the book Satyrae Medicae (1722) by Georg Franck von Franckenau, a professor of medicine from Heidelberg. The custom seems to have started over three hundred years ago in south-west Germany, but remained unknown in other parts of country until the eighteenth century. Hares (Lepus europaeus) were frequently seen in gardens in spring, and thus may have served as a convenient explanation for the origin of the colored eggs hidden there for children. Alternatively, there is a European tradition that hares laid eggs, since a hare’s scratch or form and a lapwing’s (Vanellus vanellus) nest look very similar, and both occur on grassland and are first seen in the spring. In the nineteenth century the influence of Easter cards, toys, and books was to make the Easter Hare/Rabbit popular throughout Europe. German immigrants then exported the custom to Britain and America where it evolved into the Easter Bunny."
Can you do us 1000 words just on the connection between Easter eggs and Jesus's special friend Mary Magdalene, bearing in mind that genuine Easter eggs are always red?
Donald Trump is broke. He has no access to cash. He's been posting rants all morning. The kids won't have an inheritance. No billionaires are coming to his rescue. He is desperate; the family is desperate. And such desperation is a security risk. 1:25 PM · Mar 19, 2024 · 104K Views
As referenced in my earlier post - we almost certainly won't know who is behind any half-billion plus cash payment to allow the appeal to go ahead. But the voters can make their own minds up - and judge whether President Trump will be required to payback the favour, somehow, some time.
Probably safest not to give him the chance, eh voters?
(And in any event, the appeal will very likely fail to do anything other than reduce the fine a smidgeon. Not by enough to save his crashing empire. )
It's hard to transfer half billion dollars without leaving fingerprints.
We get this sort of religious shit from tube station operatives quite frequently on their marker pen whiteboards. Usually Christian texts, occasionally something Buddhist, but frankly it’s the same stuff. When they’re not writing live-laugh-love type self help messages
I suspect Isam is fine with Christian texts.
I would not be.
Religion shouldn't be in public spaces.
Good luck with all that cathedral demolishing then...
I'm with Bart of this one. Happy with churches, etc for those that want them, but I don't want religion rammed down my throat in unrelated places.
Another person to join my "end public Christmas displays" club. I'm sure that the strength of your convictions will also apply to this religious holiday as well!
I have no problem with public Christmas displays. Just wondering what that has to do with religion?
Similarly Easter. I enjoy an Easter egg and hot cross bun like the next person as long as religion is not brought into it.
Christmas is inherently religious - just because people claim it is secular doesn't mean that is true or how people receive it.
No it's inherently secular.
You're just ignorant of the subject matter.
Our oldest Christmas traditions predate the birth of Christ. Our newest ones are from this century.
This is disingenuous. Christmas is the holiday it is because of Christianity; as is Easter. They are the significant religious holidays when it comes to dispensation from work and education and are often everywhere, in public and private settings. If you want to interpret it as secular, you can, but then others can interpret quotes from the Hadith or any generally woo quotes from religious or spiritual texts as secular.
Along with inherited custom - such as Christmas and Easter holiday seasons, the two things which could unite rather than divide society are liberalism and humanism. You can be a secular or religious humanist, and a secular or religious liberal. Secular and religious people who are liberal and humanist tend to get on fine, even when bashing each other up in their free speech inspired arguments.
I'm a secular, liberal, atheist - no way am I a humanist!
By being a liberal you connect with all other liberals, who by definition have a massive diversity of views, secular and religious.
About our notably cloudy weather this year. Seems the same thing is happening in the canaries. Something strange is going on.
I've been coming to The Canaries every March for soo many years & have NEVER known so much cloud. We've had zero sun today & yesterday..... Seems most of Europe is under cloud
I went into a 30 minute meeting at 10am and have only finished said meeting.
Have I missed anything important?
There can't be much going on. The Guardian lead is the membership list of a London old boys club. Peace must have broken out in Gaza, Ukraine and Sudan and the NHS waiting list cleared.
I went into a 30 minute meeting at 10am and have only finished said meeting.
Have I missed anything important?
There can't be much going on. The Guardian lead is the membership list of a London old boys club. Peace must have broken out in Gaza, Ukraine and Sudan and the NHS waiting list cleared.
Yes it funny how Gaza seems to have gone dead despite the horrific suffering.
Another day come and gone without Rishi calling the 2nd May General Election 🫠
There's still Sunak's appearance before the '22 tomorrow.
I think many of you missed, that meeting was arranged days ago though. And last time he met the “don’t go early, a good Olympics can make us popular again” dodgerers in suits, they told him to forget about cutting and running whilst the patient still has some blood in its veins.
All this talk of Christmas when it's only March is bringing me down. Is there a way to move on?
Tomorrow is the spring equinox. It's the start of the six months of the year with the most daylight in the northern hemisphere. That has to be worth celebrating.
Yes just a shame northern and western europe gets such little sunshine in summer compared to places further east. London sunshine hours june 208 july 217 aug 202 Stockholm sunshie nours june 277 july 280 aug 234 Moscow sunshine hours june 299 july 323 aug 242
Much better to be in Stockholm or Moscow during the summer dont you think despite their higher latitude. The UK can be quite dismal.
I am able to find pleasure in mist, fog, cloud and rain. A bit of sun is nice too, from time to time, but I wouldn't have ended up in West Cork if it was the be-all and end-all. Better cheese here than in Moscow, for example.
LostPassword - "I am able to find pleasure in mist, fog, cloud and rain."
o/t but might be of interest to many, a long-form (90’) interview with left-wing American columnist and commentator Ana Kasparian from the Young Turks, on the Iced Coffee Hour podcast. https://youtube.com/watch?v=7H2o0zPquws
One of very few left-of-centre commentators willing to debate anyone, and this interview has a lot of useful discussion in the buildup to the election. She’s more of a Bill Maher type Democrat, more concerned with economic than social issues.
Another day come and gone without Rishi calling the 2nd May General Election 🫠
That would be part of an infinite sequence, closed at one end as it only started when time began.
I don’t want to panic anyone, but he’s running out of time.
My analysis was always completely unconcerned how sub 30 the polling share currently is - it was all about campaign narratives that shift voters back for a 31%+ pv - my analysis had from May 2nd all the way till end of January, the news narrative will spin out of control for number 10 like a ball bouncing in a roulette wheel, one swingback suppressing media storm coming after another.
But unless he’s cutting it fine to a plan, my forecasting has been trumped by other opinions and considerations I simply failed to spot or appreciate - Hall capturing London from Labour, Englands Euro’s win, half a point cut in interest rates, out of recession by odd 0.1 or 0.2, a medal avalanche at the Olympics and Rwanda flights each making the Tories popular again.
All this talk of Christmas when it's only March is bringing me down. Is there a way to move on?
Tomorrow is the spring equinox. It's the start of the six months of the year with the most daylight in the northern hemisphere. That has to be worth celebrating.
Yes just a shame northern and western europe gets such little sunshine in summer compared to places further east. London sunshine hours june 208 july 217 aug 202 Stockholm sunshie nours june 277 july 280 aug 234 Moscow sunshine hours june 299 july 323 aug 242
Much better to be in Stockholm or Moscow during the summer dont you think despite their higher latitude. The UK can be quite dismal.
I am able to find pleasure in mist, fog, cloud and rain. A bit of sun is nice too, from time to time, but I wouldn't have ended up in West Cork if it was the be-all and end-all. Better cheese here than in Moscow, for example.
LostPassword - "I am able to find pleasure in mist, fog, cloud and rain."
Its much healthier to have a good freezing bracing winter climate rather than a horrible mild damp one.
As is shown by the large numbers of people attempting to emigrate from London to Moscow.
It’s starting to get hot in the sandpit, I’m sure the 100k or so rich Russians that have arrived here over the last couple of years, will all be making their way back to Moscow for the summer. Any day now…
Another day come and gone without Rishi calling the 2nd May General Election 🫠
That would be part of an infinite sequence, closed at one end as it only started when time began.
I don’t want to panic anyone, but he’s running out of time.
My analysis was always completely unconcerned how sub 30 the polling share currently is - it was all about campaign narratives that shift voters back for a 31%+ pv - my analysis had from May 2nd all the way till end of January, the news narrative will spin out of control for number 10 like a ball bouncing in a roulette wheel, one swingback suppressing media storm coming after another.
But unless he’s cutting it fine to a plan, my forecasting has been trumped by other opinions and considerations I simply failed to spot or appreciate - Hall capturing London from Labour, Englands Euro’s win, half a point cut in interest rates, out of recession by odd 0.1 or 0.2, a medal avalanche at the Olympics and Rwanda flights each making the Tories popular again.
How could I have got it so so wrong 🤦♀️
But still, between now and the autumn there will be another million or so households remortgaging from when interest rates were 0.5%, adding hundreds if not thousands to their mortgages every month.
How many of those do we think might be swing voters…? An Olympic medal haul won’t change that many votes.
We should be clear that there’s a substantial difference between when No10 wants to call an election and how long Rishi Sunak can realistically tough it out.
I went into a 30 minute meeting at 10am and have only finished said meeting.
Have I missed anything important?
There can't be much going on. The Guardian lead is the membership list of a London old boys club. Peace must have broken out in Gaza, Ukraine and Sudan and the NHS waiting list cleared.
You're missing the big news story. Someone might be pretending to be Princess Kate pretending to go shopping.
We should be clear that there’s a substantial difference between when No10 wants to call an election and how long Rishi Sunak can realistically tough it out.
He should 'tough it out' until January just to show political journalists that they don't make the decisions.
With Sunak's unerring political antennae, I assume he will be telling them what a good job he thinks they are doing, and thanking them for their support.
I find it more plausible that he will tell them what a good job he thinks he is doing, and thank himself for his own support.
We should be clear that there’s a substantial difference between when No10 wants to call an election and how long Rishi Sunak can realistically tough it out.
The Tories, and Sunak, have been toughing it out unrealistically for some time. Why stop now? I think they are sufficiently undeluded that they will realise campaigning over the Christmas season may be sub optimal but I am not even certain of that.
One thing seems sure: Anyone who thinks for one second that it is a good career move to be the PM in Sunak's place before the next election is unfit for office.
Another day come and gone without Rishi calling the 2nd May General Election 🫠
That would be part of an infinite sequence, closed at one end as it only started when time began.
I don’t want to panic anyone, but he’s running out of time.
My analysis was always completely unconcerned how sub 30 the polling share currently is - it was all about campaign narratives that shift voters back for a 31%+ pv - my analysis had from May 2nd all the way till end of January, the news narrative will spin out of control for number 10 like a ball bouncing in a roulette wheel, one swingback suppressing media storm coming after another.
But unless he’s cutting it fine to a plan, my forecasting has been trumped by other opinions and considerations I simply failed to spot or appreciate - Hall capturing London from Labour, Englands Euro’s win, half a point cut in interest rates, out of recession by odd 0.1 or 0.2, a medal avalanche at the Olympics and Rwanda flights each making the Tories popular again.
How could I have got it so so wrong 🤦♀️
But still, between now and the autumn there will be another million or so households remortgaging from when interest rates were 0.5%, adding hundreds if not thousands to their mortgages every month.
How many of those do we think might be swing voters…? An Olympic medal haul won’t change that many votes.
That's just the story they tell themselves to drown out the howling from the void.
The reality is that going late might make things better, but only because any future event has some probability.
Most likely, it's buying the current government a few more months in office at the cost of throwing a few more MPs on the bonfire. But given how bad the current situation is, the potential downside is relatively small. After all, how much worse can it get?
(I can see a former boss wincing, which she did whenever I said 'what can possibly go wrong?')
We should be clear that there’s a substantial difference between when No10 wants to call an election and how long Rishi Sunak can realistically tough it out.
He should 'tough it out' until January just to show political journalists that they don't make the decisions.
2 pm on Christmas day is famously an excellent time to knock on doors up and down the street inviting all and sundry to vote for the least popular government in modern history. It's an ancient yuletide custom. "Do come in, why don't you join us for lunch; the only Tory voter here is Uncle George. He's lying drunk in a pile of vomit under the Christmas tree with a bottle of sweet British sherry."
I went into a 30 minute meeting at 10am and have only finished said meeting.
Have I missed anything important?
There can't be much going on. The Guardian lead is the membership list of a London old boys club. Peace must have broken out in Gaza, Ukraine and Sudan and the NHS waiting list cleared.
Yes it funny how Gaza seems to have gone dead despite the horrific suffering.
And in particular the plan for the US military to build a floating pier. Then there's Haiti.
We should be clear that there’s a substantial difference between when No10 wants to call an election and how long Rishi Sunak can realistically tough it out.
The Tories, and Sunak, have been toughing it out unrealistically for some time. Why stop now? I think they are sufficiently undeluded that they will realise campaigning over the Christmas season may be sub optimal but I am not even certain of that.
One thing seems sure: Anyone who thinks for one second that it is a good career move to be the PM in Sunak's place before the next election is unfit for office.
Personally I agree with John Major that the Tories will win the next election. But if they get hammered, Sunak will resign the party leadership whereas a replacement would keep it, always assuming they retained their seat and they weren't seen as even crapper than Sunak which is unlikely.
We should be clear that there’s a substantial difference between when No10 wants to call an election and how long Rishi Sunak can realistically tough it out.
He should 'tough it out' until January just to show political journalists that they don't make the decisions.
2 pm on Christmas day is famously an excellent time to knock on doors up and down the street inviting all and sundry to vote for the least popular government in modern history. It's an ancient yuletide custom. "Do come in, why don't you join us for lunch; the only Tory voter here is Uncle George. He's lying drunk in a pile of vomit under the Christmas tree with a bottle of sweet British sherry."
If Taking Back Control isn't the freedom to do whatever the government likes, what is it?
And is it truly freedom of it's only freedom to do sensible constructive things?
In the video, Kate looks like Kate, and well, which is great.
To me, she also looks faintly like she may have had some work done on the lower part of her face, because she looks thinner but at the same time quite tight in the jaw. One might have expected her to be a bit gaunt and older looking. Obviously it's a very blurry video.
At this distance, to me, it hasn't improved her face. There's a trendy 'look' for women to have thin, weak jaws and big cheeks like manga dolls or aliens at the moment, and I think it's unattractive - it ruins the balance of the face. She still looks pretty, if she's had it, clearly it has 'gone well' and she's pleased.
BigG told us his opinion re: procedure that Princess underwent, and it's wasn't cosmetic, but instead gynecological.
Extended recovery NOT uncommon, and would explain thinness, tightness, weakness better than your take methinks.
Would also explain her reticence, which again is pretty much the norm, at least in my limited experience. NOT something most women in that situation are comfortable talking about.
Problem for The Princess, and by extension The Firm, is that she is NOT a private person, OR even an ordinary garden-variety international mega-celebrity.
Yes, I don't doubt that Kate was in hospital for serious surgery, but I also don't doubt (or blame her) that she may have used the downtime and privacy to have a little maintenance work done.
Aging in the public eye isn't easy, especially when you're meant to be the new princess of peoples' hearts. I remember around the time of the coronation we had particularly catty comments from a male PBer declaring that Kate was 'getting the face she deserves' - and this is a political betting forum.
We should be clear that there’s a substantial difference between when No10 wants to call an election and how long Rishi Sunak can realistically tough it out.
He should 'tough it out' until January just to show political journalists that they don't make the decisions.
2 pm on Christmas day is famously an excellent time to knock on doors up and down the street inviting all and sundry to vote for the least popular government in modern history. It's an ancient yuletide custom. "Do come in, why don't you join us for lunch; the only Tory voter here is Uncle George. He's lying drunk in a pile of vomit under the Christmas tree with a bottle of sweet British sherry."
Good way to suppress the Labour/Reform campaign. Call the election just before Christmas and have zero Tory campaigning until the New Year.
In the video, Kate looks like Kate, and well, which is great.
To me, she also looks faintly like she may have had some work done on the lower part of her face, because she looks thinner but at the same time quite tight in the jaw. One might have expected her to be a bit gaunt and older looking. Obviously it's a very blurry video.
At this distance, to me, it hasn't improved her face. There's a trendy 'look' for women to have thin, weak jaws and big cheeks like manga dolls or aliens at the moment, and I think it's unattractive - it ruins the balance of the face. She still looks pretty, if she's had it, clearly it has 'gone well' and she's pleased.
BigG told us his opinion re: procedure that Princess underwent, and it's wasn't cosmetic, but instead gynecological.
Extended recovery NOT uncommon, and would explain thinness, tightness, weakness better than your take methinks.
Would also explain her reticence, which again is pretty much the norm, at least in my limited experience. NOT something most women in that situation are comfortable talking about.
Problem for The Princess, and by extension The Firm, is that she is NOT a private person, OR even an ordinary garden-variety international mega-celebrity.
Yes, I don't doubt that Kate was in hospital for serious surgery, but I also don't doubt (or blame her) that she may have used the downtime and privacy to have a little maintenance work done.
Aging in the public eye isn't easy, especially when you're meant to be the new princess of peoples' hearts. I remember around the time of the coronation we had particularly catty comments from a male PBer declaring that Kate was 'getting the face she deserves' - and this is a political betting forum.
Should anyone be having any unnecessary procedure whilst convalescing from surgery?
Sunak should just name the date now, be it October 17, November 14, January 25, or whatever. If he doesn't end the speculation soon it will kill whatever minute chances he has.
Presumably he wanted to keep a May election option open in case of a budget bounce. But that's tanked so it's going to be the autumn. (I assume even he's not stupid enough to hold out for December or January.)
Is there anything to be gained by keeping Labour guessing? No - they are surely prepared for all possible dates. Conversely, it's hard to see a leadership challenge once he's neamed the GE date and the Tories are in campaign mode.
In the meantime, by not naming a date he is going to face constant corrosive speculation about it.
The election will be October 17th because any later and Charles isn’t around
However if it’s then there is no chance of a tax change being passed down to workers in a pay pocket
17th October means parliament prorogues no later than 12th September. They'll want an "autumn" statement first in the week before. Which the treasury will need to prepare over the summer which will of course leak out. They'll also want to cancel party conference and try to save some money. And talking about savings, not a penny of the AS bribe will hit people's pay before the election.
Are we sure on the 17th October? They may as well announce that date before the summer recess as you'll be able to see "there will be an election" from space. And as it will fall apart at high speed over the summer, by the time they get there it will be about as robust as that Truss confidence vote on Fracking.
I'm pretty sure the Conservatives make money from their conferences. Corporate booths and sponsored talks abound.
Hunt teases the media who go into a spin disecting every word
Unfortunately this will go on and on until the date is called which I think will be the 14th November
Too much going on in October
The election will be by 26th September, for several reasons:
It cancels a party conference no-one wants. It has a surprise element. It keeps away from the toxic USA election. It suits HM the King. It allows an early announcement and puts an end to leadership speculation sooner than otherwise. The betting odds are good if I am correct. (DYOR!)
In the video, Kate looks like Kate, and well, which is great.
To me, she also looks faintly like she may have had some work done on the lower part of her face, because she looks thinner but at the same time quite tight in the jaw. One might have expected her to be a bit gaunt and older looking. Obviously it's a very blurry video.
At this distance, to me, it hasn't improved her face. There's a trendy 'look' for women to have thin, weak jaws and big cheeks like manga dolls or aliens at the moment, and I think it's unattractive - it ruins the balance of the face. She still looks pretty, if she's had it, clearly it has 'gone well' and she's pleased.
BigG told us his opinion re: procedure that Princess underwent, and it's wasn't cosmetic, but instead gynecological.
Extended recovery NOT uncommon, and would explain thinness, tightness, weakness better than your take methinks.
Would also explain her reticence, which again is pretty much the norm, at least in my limited experience. NOT something most women in that situation are comfortable talking about.
Problem for The Princess, and by extension The Firm, is that she is NOT a private person, OR even an ordinary garden-variety international mega-celebrity.
Yes, I don't doubt that Kate was in hospital for serious surgery, but I also don't doubt (or blame her) that she may have used the downtime and privacy to have a little maintenance work done.
Aging in the public eye isn't easy, especially when you're meant to be the new princess of peoples' hearts. I remember around the time of the coronation we had particularly catty comments from a male PBer declaring that Kate was 'getting the face she deserves' - and this is a political betting forum.
Should anyone be having any unnecessary procedure whilst convalescing from surgery?
A blurry video of course doesn't prove that she has, but I'd imagine if she did she took doctors' advice.
She will not get another chance (unless God forbid she needs more hospital treatment) so many would think it foolish not to have something done.
We should be clear that there’s a substantial difference between when No10 wants to call an election and how long Rishi Sunak can realistically tough it out.
The Tories, and Sunak, have been toughing it out unrealistically for some time. Why stop now? I think they are sufficiently undeluded that they will realise campaigning over the Christmas season may be sub optimal but I am not even certain of that.
One thing seems sure: Anyone who thinks for one second that it is a good career move to be the PM in Sunak's place before the next election is unfit for office.
Personally I agree with John Major that the Tories will win the next election. But if they get hammered, Sunak will resign the party leadership whereas a replacement would keep it, always assuming they retained their seat and they weren't seen as even crapper than Sunak which is unlikely.
The election will be October 17th because any later and Charles isn’t around
However if it’s then there is no chance of a tax change being passed down to workers in a pay pocket
17th October means parliament prorogues no later than 12th September. They'll want an "autumn" statement first in the week before. Which the treasury will need to prepare over the summer which will of course leak out. They'll also want to cancel party conference and try to save some money. And talking about savings, not a penny of the AS bribe will hit people's pay before the election.
Are we sure on the 17th October? They may as well announce that date before the summer recess as you'll be able to see "there will be an election" from space. And as it will fall apart at high speed over the summer, by the time they get there it will be about as robust as that Truss confidence vote on Fracking.
I'm pretty sure the Conservatives make money from their conferences. Corporate booths and sponsored talks abound.
Hunt teases the media who go into a spin disecting every word
Unfortunately this will go on and on until the date is called which I think will be the 14th November
Too much going on in October
The election will be by 26th September, for several reasons:
It cancels a party conference no-one wants. It has a surprise element. It keeps away from the toxic USA election. It suits HM the King. It allows an early announcement and puts an end to leadership speculation sooner than otherwise. The betting odds are good if I am correct. (DYOR!)
The only problem being that it would need to be called in June in order to avoid a recall of Parliament for the wash-up; which would not only annoy the hell out of the MPs and campaigners, but also the Lobby hacks who expect to spend August on a sun lounger.
We should be clear that there’s a substantial difference between when No10 wants to call an election and how long Rishi Sunak can realistically tough it out.
He should 'tough it out' until January just to show political journalists that they don't make the decisions.
2 pm on Christmas day is famously an excellent time to knock on doors up and down the street inviting all and sundry to vote for the least popular government in modern history. It's an ancient yuletide custom. "Do come in, why don't you join us for lunch; the only Tory voter here is Uncle George. He's lying drunk in a pile of vomit under the Christmas tree with a bottle of sweet British sherry."
Good way to suppress the Labour/Reform campaign. Call the election just before Christmas and have zero Tory campaigning until the New Year.
Labour canvassers would be welcome in my house for a game of charades.
Donald Trump is broke. He has no access to cash. He's been posting rants all morning. The kids won't have an inheritance. No billionaires are coming to his rescue. He is desperate; the family is desperate. And such desperation is a security risk. 1:25 PM · Mar 19, 2024 · 104K Views
As referenced in my earlier post - we almost certainly won't know who is behind any half-billion plus cash payment to allow the appeal to go ahead. But the voters can make their own minds up - and judge whether President Trump will be required to payback the favour, somehow, some time.
Probably safest not to give him the chance, eh voters?
(And in any event, the appeal will very likely fail to do anything other than reduce the fine a smidgeon. Not by enough to save his crashing empire. )
It's hard to transfer half billion dollars without leaving fingerprints.
Especially if you are saying one day that you don’t have 500m and then a few days later that you do.
Considering the legal and political situation nobody is going to accept those funds without being very sure where the money has come from as they don’t want, for example, it to turn out down the line that it’s come from a bad source and then everyone is in the shit.
It’s not like saying you can’t pay a £500 fine and the next week your boss subs you the money and you pay it off. This is half a billion dollars.
We should be clear that there’s a substantial difference between when No10 wants to call an election and how long Rishi Sunak can realistically tough it out.
The Tories, and Sunak, have been toughing it out unrealistically for some time. Why stop now? I think they are sufficiently undeluded that they will realise campaigning over the Christmas season may be sub optimal but I am not even certain of that.
One thing seems sure: Anyone who thinks for one second that it is a good career move to be the PM in Sunak's place before the next election is unfit for office.
Personally I agree with John Major that the Tories will win the next election. But if they get hammered, Sunak will resign the party leadership whereas a replacement would keep it, always assuming they retained their seat and they weren't seen as even crapper than Sunak which is unlikely.
Good point but. Firstly, if the Tories are to win the next election, there are betting fortunes to be made. Do tell us more.
Secondly, let us say Penny M is a the new leader and PM pre election. She would lose her seat on a 17point swing. This is perfectly possible. As new leader she (or whoever) would be subject to a comprehensive decapitation strategy, with enhanced tactical voting, making it even more likely she would lose.
Almost no Tory MPs (maybe about 50) are immune from the possibility of defeat. IIRC the only two 'names' who are in that position are Barclay (who?) and Williamson (Spiderman).
Just catching up on the SUV threadette. There is a lot of nonsense written on this topic because (I think??) people confuse the US idea of an SUV with our concept of it.
Someone earlier sought to compare our SUVs with estates (i.e. the modern incarnation of them). This is a great point, I think.
In many cases, the estates are larger.
BMW 5 series estate has a larger footprint than an Audi Q5, for example.
And the 7-seater (!) Audi Q7 is barely 10cm longer and wider.
Full disclosure, I'm an SUV driver. But there's a whiff of moral panic about them I think.
It's not the length, it's the width, and all modern cars have become a lot wider, not just SUVs.
Maybe so, but it was the nonsense focus on SUVs specifically that I was challenging.
(The Q5 is only an inch wider than the 5 series estate in any case)
Right, but compare to cars from a decade, two decades and three decades ago and you will see the difference plain as day.
So what though? That was never the point I was making. My point was the endless focus on SUVs specifically, when the truth is they often have smaller footprints than estates.
SUVs are more dangerous for pedestrians than "ordinary" cars, they are less fuel efficient (because they are heavier) and they cause greater wear on roads (again because they are heavier). They can be handy in rural locations where roads are poor, and generally empty, but in cities they are a menace with no redeeming features.
Heavier. Hmm.
The problem with the catch-all term SUV is, I think, the definition.
See below:
BMW 5 series estate 1,790 to 2,035 kg
Audi Q5 1,775 to 2,075 kg
Yes I am sure there are exceptions but SUVs generally are heavier than other types of car. And more dangerous to pedestrians. And take up more roadspace. And are less fuel efficient.
Well, as I say it depends on your definition of SUVs! Light trucks (sic) as @MattW notes are often called SUVs, it's become a catch-all term for "big cars that I don't approve of".
But, the Audi Q5 is pretty much a common-or-garden SUV and as I have shown is similar to a common-or-garden BMW 5 series estate in weight.
So, the definition matters.
The difference between the Q5 and the 5 series is stability eg centre of gravity height, and perhaps the "I feel impregnable" attitude that can be engendered (which is expressed far more clearly in Usonian circles with their higher acceptance of actual or threatened violence), and the inability of drivers to cope.
I don't have detailed stats at that level.
But I was planning a brief response to Bart's comments overnight, and in part it fits well here.
I'm not concerned about what happens to Audi-hoons, BMW-bums or lobotomised Landrover drivers; when they kill themselves we can give them a Darwin Award and move on. I am not even especially concerned when the dozy driver, whichever of all of us it is today, kills themselves.
I AM very concerned about such individuals driving around in vehicles with enough power, performance, weight and kinetic energy (ie 0.5mv^2) to demolish the nearest house, or put half a dozen school kids in hospital because "I pressed the wrong pedal".
Just catching up on the SUV threadette. There is a lot of nonsense written on this topic because (I think??) people confuse the US idea of an SUV with our concept of it.
Someone earlier sought to compare our SUVs with estates (i.e. the modern incarnation of them). This is a great point, I think.
In many cases, the estates are larger.
BMW 5 series estate has a larger footprint than an Audi Q5, for example.
And the 7-seater (!) Audi Q7 is barely 10cm longer and wider.
Full disclosure, I'm an SUV driver. But there's a whiff of moral panic about them I think.
It's not the length, it's the width, and all modern cars have become a lot wider, not just SUVs.
Maybe so, but it was the nonsense focus on SUVs specifically that I was challenging.
(The Q5 is only an inch wider than the 5 series estate in any case)
Right, but compare to cars from a decade, two decades and three decades ago and you will see the difference plain as day.
So what though? That was never the point I was making. My point was the endless focus on SUVs specifically, when the truth is they often have smaller footprints than estates.
SUVs are more dangerous for pedestrians than "ordinary" cars, they are less fuel efficient (because they are heavier) and they cause greater wear on roads (again because they are heavier). They can be handy in rural locations where roads are poor, and generally empty, but in cities they are a menace with no redeeming features.
Heavier. Hmm.
The problem with the catch-all term SUV is, I think, the definition.
See below:
BMW 5 series estate 1,790 to 2,035 kg
Audi Q5 1,775 to 2,075 kg
Yes I am sure there are exceptions but SUVs generally are heavier than other types of car. And more dangerous to pedestrians. And take up more roadspace. And are less fuel efficient.
Well, as I say it depends on your definition of SUVs! Light trucks (sic) as @MattW notes are often called SUVs, it's become a catch-all term for "big cars that I don't approve of".
But, the Audi Q5 is pretty much a common-or-garden SUV and as I have shown is similar to a common-or-garden BMW 5 series estate in weight.
So, the definition matters.
The difference between the Q5 and the 5 series is stability eg centre of gravity height, and perhaps the "I feel impregnable" attitude that can be engendered (which is expressed far more clearly in Usonian circles with their higher acceptance of actual or threatened violence), and the inability of drivers to cope.
I don't have detailed stats at that level.
But I was planning a brief response to Bart's comments overnight, and in part it fits well here.
I'm not concerned about what happens to Audi-hoons, BMW-bums or lobotomised Landrover drivers; when they kill themselves we can give them a Darwin Award and move on. I am not even especially concerned when the dozy driver, whichever of all of us it is today, kills themselves.
I AM very concerned about such individuals driving around in vehicles with enough power, performance, weight and kinetic energy (ie 0.5mv^2) to demolish the nearest house, or put half a dozen school kids in hospital because "I pressed the wrong pedal".
We should be clear that there’s a substantial difference between when No10 wants to call an election and how long Rishi Sunak can realistically tough it out.
The Tories, and Sunak, have been toughing it out unrealistically for some time. Why stop now? I think they are sufficiently undeluded that they will realise campaigning over the Christmas season may be sub optimal but I am not even certain of that.
One thing seems sure: Anyone who thinks for one second that it is a good career move to be the PM in Sunak's place before the next election is unfit for office.
They may decide that having a disrupted election campaign is to their favour. A week and a bit of campaigning before Christmas and then a short three week campaign in January.
We get this sort of religious shit from tube station operatives quite frequently on their marker pen whiteboards. Usually Christian texts, occasionally something Buddhist, but frankly it’s the same stuff. When they’re not writing live-laugh-love type self help messages
I suspect Isam is fine with Christian texts.
I would not be.
Religion shouldn't be in public spaces.
Good luck with all that cathedral demolishing then...
I'm with Bart of this one. Happy with churches, etc for those that want them, but I don't want religion rammed down my throat in unrelated places.
Another person to join my "end public Christmas displays" club. I'm sure that the strength of your convictions will also apply to this religious holiday as well!
I have no problem with public Christmas displays. Just wondering what that has to do with religion?
Similarly Easter. I enjoy an Easter egg and hot cross bun like the next person as long as religion is not brought into it.
Christmas is inherently religious - just because people claim it is secular doesn't mean that is true or how people receive it.
No it's inherently secular.
You're just ignorant of the subject matter.
Our oldest Christmas traditions predate the birth of Christ. Our newest ones are from this century.
This is disingenuous. Christmas is the holiday it is because of Christianity; as is Easter. They are the significant religious holidays when it comes to dispensation from work and education and are often everywhere, in public and private settings. If you want to interpret it as secular, you can, but then others can interpret quotes from the Hadith or any generally woo quotes from religious or spiritual texts as secular.
They're secular holidays dating back thousands of years.
The early Church bolted their religious stuff onto pre-existing traditions.
The birth of Jesus got moved to December to match with Yule celebrations.
And with Eostre they didn't even change the name!
As above, these claims that Xmas and Easter are transformed pagan holidays are debated.
If there is some influence of pagan religious events, those earlier celebrations are not *secular*. Eostre (a word only actually attested once, in Bede) is a god.
Only debated in the same way that some debate if the earth is curved or flat.
The history is there. The traditions predate the religion. The original religion is no longer followed so all we have left now is secular elements with a new religion bolting its stuff on top.
The Easter bunny is a more traditional Eostre element than the crucifixion. It's not Christian.
There are still Pagans and even new offshoots of pagan faith such as the wiccans
How seriously should we take the implications of Jeremy Hunt's remarks today?
Speaking in the House of Lords, Hunt said the Treasury would need time to push through a review of Whitehall budgets before next spring, making an October date the last time when an election would be possible.
“This particular spending review has to be completed before next April, when the next financial year starts. And if the general election is in October, that will mean it’s very, very tight,” he said.
Comments
https://news.sky.com/story/climate-report-issues-red-alert-warning-after-record-breaking-temperatures-caused-misery-and-mayhem-in-2023-13098034
Decline of Rust Belt economy also major factor. But large part of the Rust due to snow, ice, salt & cinders on roads, etc, etc., etc.
You can be gainfully employed in expanding high-tech sector, living in US Midwest or Northeast . . . and be freezing your aging ass off more often than you really enjoy.
Other key factor in Sunbelt Exodus = AIR CONDITIONING. As anyone who has spent a few weeks there in the dog days of summer (May-Sept in Baton Rouge) well knows.
Unfortunately this will go on and on until the date is called which I think will be the 14th November
Too much going on in October
On the bright side for Donald Trump, it looks like he won’t be impacted by President Biden’s proposed billionaires tax.
https://twitter.com/DarrigoMelanie/status/1769890531784454306
Have I missed anything important?
I've been coming to The Canaries every March for soo many years & have NEVER known so much cloud.
We've had zero sun today & yesterday.....
Seems most of Europe is under cloud
https://x.com/janey_wayney13/status/1770065024918163918?s=20
Ex-Trump adviser Peter Navarro reports to prison on contempt of Congress conviction
“I will walk proudly in there to do my time,” Navarro said. “I will gather strength from this: Donald John Trump is the nominee.”
https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1770133763239919826
One of very few left-of-centre commentators willing to debate anyone, and this interview has a lot of useful discussion in the buildup to the election. She’s more of a Bill Maher type Democrat, more concerned with economic than social issues.
But unless he’s cutting it fine to a plan, my forecasting has been trumped by other opinions and considerations I simply failed to spot or appreciate - Hall capturing London from Labour, Englands Euro’s win, half a point cut in interest rates, out of recession by odd 0.1 or 0.2, a medal avalanche at the Olympics and Rwanda flights each making the Tories popular again.
How could I have got it so so wrong 🤦♀️
How many of those do we think might be swing voters…? An Olympic medal haul won’t change that many votes.
We should be clear that there’s a substantial difference between when No10 wants to call an election and how long Rishi Sunak can realistically tough it out.
One thing seems sure: Anyone who thinks for one second that it is a good career move to be the PM in Sunak's place before the next election is unfit for office.
The reality is that going late might make things better, but only because any future event has some probability.
Most likely, it's buying the current government a few more months in office at the cost of throwing a few more MPs on the bonfire. But given how bad the current situation is, the potential downside is relatively small. After all, how much worse can it get?
(I can see a former boss wincing, which she did whenever I said 'what can possibly go wrong?')
Then there's Haiti.
But if they get hammered, Sunak will resign the party leadership whereas a replacement would keep it, always assuming they retained their seat and they weren't seen as even crapper than Sunak which is unlikely.
And is it truly freedom of it's only freedom to do sensible constructive things?
Aging in the public eye isn't easy, especially when you're meant to be the new princess of peoples' hearts. I remember around the time of the coronation we had particularly catty comments from a male PBer declaring that Kate was 'getting the face she deserves' - and this is a political betting forum.
Presumably he wanted to keep a May election option open in case of a budget bounce. But that's tanked so it's going to be the autumn. (I assume even he's not stupid enough to hold out for December or January.)
Is there anything to be gained by keeping Labour guessing? No - they are surely prepared for all possible dates. Conversely, it's hard to see a leadership challenge once he's neamed the GE date and the Tories are in campaign mode.
In the meantime, by not naming a date he is going to face constant corrosive speculation about it.
It cancels a party conference no-one wants.
It has a surprise element.
It keeps away from the toxic USA election.
It suits HM the King.
It allows an early announcement and puts an end to leadership speculation sooner than otherwise.
The betting odds are good if I am correct. (DYOR!)
She will not get another chance (unless God forbid she needs more hospital treatment) so many would think it foolish not to have something done.
NEW THREAD
Considering the legal and political situation nobody is going to accept those funds without being very sure where the money has come from as they don’t want, for example, it to turn out down the line that it’s come from a bad source and then everyone is in the shit.
It’s not like saying you can’t pay a £500 fine and the next week your boss subs you the money and you pay it off. This is half a billion dollars.
Secondly, let us say Penny M is a the new leader and PM pre election. She would lose her seat on a 17point swing. This is perfectly possible. As new leader she (or whoever) would be subject to a comprehensive decapitation strategy, with enhanced tactical voting, making it even more likely she would lose.
Almost no Tory MPs (maybe about 50) are immune from the possibility of defeat. IIRC the only two 'names' who are in that position are Barclay (who?) and Williamson (Spiderman).
I don't have detailed stats at that level.
But I was planning a brief response to Bart's comments overnight, and in part it fits well here.
I'm not concerned about what happens to Audi-hoons, BMW-bums or lobotomised Landrover drivers; when they kill themselves we can give them a Darwin Award and move on. I am not even especially concerned when the dozy driver, whichever of all of us it is today, kills themselves.
I AM very concerned about such individuals driving around in vehicles with enough power, performance, weight and kinetic energy (ie 0.5mv^2) to demolish the nearest house, or put half a dozen school kids in hospital because "I pressed the wrong pedal".
https://www.gazetteandherald.co.uk/news/24005689.car-crashes-bungalow-salisbury-street/
And here is an Audi driver causing serious structural damage after it he had already hit a vehicle on the drive:
https://news.sky.com/story/man-injured-as-car-ploughs-into-house-10450749
There are loads of these every week. And we wonder why insurance premiums are going up
https://news.sky.com/story/man-injured-as-car-ploughs-into-house-10450749
Speaking in the House of Lords, Hunt said the Treasury would need time to push through a review of Whitehall budgets before next spring, making an October date the last time when an election would be possible.
“This particular spending review has to be completed before next April, when the next financial year starts. And if the general election is in October, that will mean it’s very, very tight,” he said.
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/19/jeremy-hunt-hints-october-general-election-spending-review