For this week's task you will be running a press office. Nexus, you will be working for Kensington Palace. Supream, you will be working for the Conservative party.
It's a long time since I've watched The Apprentice (it used to be favourite comedy viewing for Mrs Romford and me), but has there ever been an episode where both sides were sent to Cafe Loser?
I think Susan Hall will lose but might do a little better than her odds suggest. Am not a London-dweller these days, but ULEZ (which was a Conservative policy?) does seem to still motivate a great deal of anti-Khan feeling in the blue ‘burbs.
It’s not a dynamic or appealing contest though. Hopefully both parties are giving proper thought to their next candidate.
To be anti-ULEZ now it’s been implemented, you have to:
- Not believe the stats on the impact on air quality, or not care - Drive, and enjoy cars and driving - Not enjoy cars and driving enough to have a petrol car less than 20 years old or a diesel less than 8 years old - if you were affected, still not changed car since ULEZ extension came in
That’s a pretty small voter demographic
One of the fears of the ULEZ was that the criteria would be tightened over time. So people with a compliant car now might worry that it could suddenly be non-compliant tomorrow.
well isnt that inevitable ? Once a threshold has been crossed the costs only go one way.
Yes. I was trying to be gentle about the point.
The end state for the ULEZ would be zero tailpipe emissions vehicles only.
One of the curiosities of the Brexit era was that, to a large extent, the British political debate became exclusively an internal Conservative party debate. In normal times a political party seems to keep internal debate, internal, and avoids washing its dirty laundry in public. The Tories are completely unable to keep to such discipline.
It may well be impossible in the era of social media.
I think Susan Hall will lose but might do a little better than her odds suggest. Am not a London-dweller these days, but ULEZ (which was a Conservative policy?) does seem to still motivate a great deal of anti-Khan feeling in the blue ‘burbs.
It’s not a dynamic or appealing contest though. Hopefully both parties are giving proper thought to their next candidate.
To be anti-ULEZ now it’s been implemented, you have to:
- Not believe the stats on the impact on air quality, or not care - Drive, and enjoy cars and driving - Not enjoy cars and driving enough to have a petrol car less than 20 years old or a diesel less than 8 years old - if you were affected, still not changed car since ULEZ extension came in
That’s a pretty small voter demographic
The people most affected are small business tradesmen in old-ish (5yo+) vans, followed by people working low-paid shift work such as hospitality.
Germany is more exposed to energy price shocks from Russia than we are. Not everything is Brexit. At the same time, you can't point to other countries having different issues to us and say that it disproves Brexit is a problem for us.
Im off to Hamburg for three days today. It's interesting seeing Germany close up. There's no real money for investment and nobody has much confidence in the government. If that sound like Sunaks government I hate to say nobody reminds me more of Starmer than Olaf Scholz. 5 more wasted years.
I think Susan Hall will lose but might do a little better than her odds suggest. Am not a London-dweller these days, but ULEZ (which was a Conservative policy?) does seem to still motivate a great deal of anti-Khan feeling in the blue ‘burbs.
It’s not a dynamic or appealing contest though. Hopefully both parties are giving proper thought to their next candidate.
To be anti-ULEZ now it’s been implemented, you have to:
- Not believe the stats on the impact on air quality, or not care - Drive, and enjoy cars and driving - Not enjoy cars and driving enough to have a petrol car less than 20 years old or a diesel less than 8 years old - if you were affected, still not changed car since ULEZ extension came in
That’s a pretty small voter demographic
The people most affected are small business tradesmen in old-ish (5yo+) vans.
There aren’t that many of them either, anymore. Our window cleaner is an example - hardly a big businessman, cleans the windows on our street every month or so for a very reasonable fee, changed his van when the original ULEZ came in here. No sweat.
(And has noted how much less dirty the windows facing our local rat run have been since ULEZ).
For all that peaple say no-one is really paying it, the old inner area ULEZ managed to raise £150m in charges and £70m in fines in year 22-23.
For this week's task you will be running a press office. Nexus, you will be working for Kensington Palace. Supream, you will be working for the Conservative party.
It's a long time since I've watched The Apprentice (it used to be favourite comedy viewing for Mrs Romford and me), but has there ever been an episode where both sides were sent to Cafe Loser?
No, but isn't that a good idea. We have had repeated weeks in this series where the "winning" team did terribly but less terribly than the "losing team".
In the business plan era my assumption is that Seralan eyes up the proposals and makes his firing decisions based on that.
Germany is more exposed to energy price shocks from Russia than we are. Not everything is Brexit. At the same time, you can't point to other countries having different issues to us and say that it disproves Brexit is a problem for us.
Why not ? You point at just about anything and cry Brexit. It's a two way street. We could of course take a balanced approach but that wouldnt be PB would it ?
Germany is more exposed to energy price shocks from Russia than we are. Not everything is Brexit. At the same time, you can't point to other countries having different issues to us and say that it disproves Brexit is a problem for us.
Why not ? You point at just about anything and cry Brexit. It's a two way street. We could of course take a balanced approach but that wouldnt be PB would it ?
For this week's task you will be running a press office. Nexus, you will be working for Kensington Palace. Supream, you will be working for the Conservative party.
It's a long time since I've watched The Apprentice (it used to be favourite comedy viewing for Mrs Romford and me), but has there ever been an episode where both sides were sent to Cafe Loser?
No, but isn't that a good idea. We have had repeated weeks in this series where the "winning" team did terribly but less terribly than the "losing team".
In the business plan era my assumption is that Seralan eyes up the proposals and makes his firing decisions based on that.
That sounds like one of Leon's conspiracy theories. You only have to see what rubbish business proposals make it through to the final five interview round to realise that cannot possibly be the case.
For this week's task you will be running a press office. Nexus, you will be working for Kensington Palace. Supream, you will be working for the Conservative party.
It's a long time since I've watched The Apprentice (it used to be favourite comedy viewing for Mrs Romford and me), but has there ever been an episode where both sides were sent to Cafe Loser?
No, but isn't that a good idea. We have had repeated weeks in this series where the "winning" team did terribly but less terribly than the "losing team".
In the business plan era my assumption is that Seralan eyes up the proposals and makes his firing decisions based on that.
That sounds like one of Leon's conspiracy theories. You only have to see what rubbish business proposals make it through to the final five interview round to realise that cannot possibly be the case.
Unless those are the best five business plans submitted.
Which would explain a fair bit about the state of the nation, actually.
It'd be a miracle if Susan Hall won in London (has anyone seen or heard an interview with her, I don't mean for rarity but for how it actually went?) but there are a few women on the Tory back benches who were actually elected on the strength of the red wall/brexit who are on a par with her. Compared to them, Rishi seems like a genius.
I’m seeing lots of YouTube videos for her campaign in recent days. The usual one is going on about ULEZ.
It'd be a miracle if Susan Hall won in London (has anyone seen or heard an interview with her, I don't mean for rarity but for how it actually went?) but there are a few women on the Tory back benches who were actually elected on the strength of the red wall/brexit who are on a par with her. Compared to them, Rishi seems like a genius.
I’m seeing lots of YouTube videos for her campaign in recent days. The usual one is going on about ULEZ.
Good morning everyone; brighter and indeed spring like today.
As someone who lives outside London, and rarely drives into it, and if he does uses a three-year-old car, what is the problem with ULEZ? Surely reducing emissions is a good thing?
Last summer, there was genuine anxiety that everyone would have to get an electric car- there wasn't recognition that relatively few cars would be affected. There was also a feeling that public transport (although stonkingly good compared with the provinces) wasn't good enough. Personally, I disagree, but I can see that milages vary. There's also the observation that outer London/ inner Essex is the spiritual home of white van man, and many of them were affected.
So yes, there was enough of a "it's a sledgehammer to crack a nut" case to be plausible, especially in the hands of people who like arguments and don't like Mayor Khan.
But it's largely a dead issue now. There are people campaigning against ULEZ out here in "Essex, actually", doing demos and blocking cameras. But not many, and increasingly cranky.
That London Conservatives have invested so much in the issue shows how poor their political instincts are.
The issue now is that you have conspiracy theorists cranks literally destroying cameras at intersections which then takes out the traffic lights as well. And the local tories are encouraging this behaviour!
Im off to Hamburg for three days today. It's interesting seeing Germany close up. There's no real money for investment and nobody has much confidence in the government. If that sound like Sunaks government I hate to say nobody reminds me more of Starmer than Olaf Scholz. 5 more wasted years.
Scholz makes Starmer look a model of decisiveness.
Germany is more exposed to energy price shocks from Russia than we are. Not everything is Brexit. At the same time, you can't point to other countries having different issues to us and say that it disproves Brexit is a problem for us.
Why not ? You point at just about anything and cry Brexit. It's a two way street. We could of course take a balanced approach but that wouldnt be PB would it ?
I post about specific trading issues and cry Brexit, not "just about anything".
Germany is more exposed to energy price shocks from Russia than we are. Not everything is Brexit. At the same time, you can't point to other countries having different issues to us and say that it disproves Brexit is a problem for us.
Why not ? You point at just about anything and cry Brexit. It's a two way street. We could of course take a balanced approach but that wouldnt be PB would it ?
In fairness Brexit has been an obsession or source of causation in some posters minds that bears a remarkable similarity to the position that the EU held before Brexit in the minds of many Brexiteers. At that time the EU was irrationally blamed for most of our self inflicted problems and used as both a punchbag and excuse for every failure. There is some moral equivalence in those so obsessed with Brexit now doing the same.
Doesn't mean that both are not wrong and irrational, of course. In an ideal world we would start to accept the consequences of our own decisions in a mature way. But we are so far from that that it seems naïve even to dream about it.
Germany is more exposed to energy price shocks from Russia than we are. Not everything is Brexit. At the same time, you can't point to other countries having different issues to us and say that it disproves Brexit is a problem for us.
Why not ? You point at just about anything and cry Brexit. It's a two way street. We could of course take a balanced approach but that wouldnt be PB would it ?
I post about specific trading issues and cry Brexit, not "just about anything".
Well thats how you see it. I see myself as a totally rational well balanced Ulsterman. Others views may differ.
For this week's task you will be running a press office. Nexus, you will be working for Kensington Palace. Supream, you will be working for the Conservative party.
It's a long time since I've watched The Apprentice (it used to be favourite comedy viewing for Mrs Romford and me), but has there ever been an episode where both sides were sent to Cafe Loser?
No, but isn't that a good idea. We have had repeated weeks in this series where the "winning" team did terribly but less terribly than the "losing team".
In the business plan era my assumption is that Seralan eyes up the proposals and makes his firing decisions based on that.
That sounds like one of Leon's conspiracy theories. You only have to see what rubbish business proposals make it through to the final five interview round to realise that cannot possibly be the case.
Erm, are you arguing that large chunks of The Apprentice aren't artificial and utterly staged?
They go off looking for even catering, do a deal and then have to cook it themselves. They split into sub-teams with one creating the product and one creating the marketing. They can't speak so you get product and marketing utterly mismatched. Etc etc etc.
Im off to Hamburg for three days today. It's interesting seeing Germany close up. There's no real money for investment and nobody has much confidence in the government. If that sound like Sunaks government I hate to say nobody reminds me more of Starmer than Olaf Scholz. 5 more wasted years.
Scholz makes Starmer look a model of decisiveness.
And Starmer was never a Marxist.
Scholz was Hamburgs big hope to get the port moving again and complete a series of investments in roads and buildings. But its all gone sour as there is no money, the taxi drivers moan about him and the locals say he's let them down.
Not totally unrelated. Brexit undoubtedly encouraged Putin that the West was weak and he should try his hand in Ukraine.
Desperate.
Perhaps the utter weakness shown by the West to all the other Russian aggressions had more to do with it.
Or that Germany had Putin's fan girl GDR Merkel hooking the German economy on Russian energy and Russian money for 16 years.
Or that sleepy Joe had presided over humiliation in Afghanistan.
Or that the Western world had been making defence cuts for three decades irrespective of the world situation.
Brexit is at least as convincing a contributor as any of those.
Weak whataboutery on your part: You mention German living standards falling and sarcastically suggest it's due to Brexit; I point out that there is a link; you raise several other things that may or may not have contributed. So what? Brexit was definitely a factor in encouraging Putin, and Putin invading Ukraine is definitely a major cause of German economic woes.
For this week's task you will be running a press office. Nexus, you will be working for Kensington Palace. Supream, you will be working for the Conservative party.
It's a long time since I've watched The Apprentice (it used to be favourite comedy viewing for Mrs Romford and me), but has there ever been an episode where both sides were sent to Cafe Loser?
No, but isn't that a good idea. We have had repeated weeks in this series where the "winning" team did terribly but less terribly than the "losing team".
In the business plan era my assumption is that Seralan eyes up the proposals and makes his firing decisions based on that.
That sounds like one of Leon's conspiracy theories. You only have to see what rubbish business proposals make it through to the final five interview round to realise that cannot possibly be the case.
Erm, are you arguing that large chunks of The Apprentice aren't artificial and utterly staged?
They go off looking for even catering, do a deal and then have to cook it themselves. They split into sub-teams with one creating the product and one creating the marketing. They can't speak so you get product and marketing utterly mismatched. Etc etc etc.
No but I am saying The Apprentice is not as rigged as you think it is. How could a programme format partly owned by Donald Trump possibly be suspect? The catering thing is standard aiui; think of it as the corporate version of Hello Fresh or similar recipe boxes. You are right about communication between sub-teams though.
ETA the most obvious way The Apprentice is artificial is that every year, the producers choose candidates who are more interested in media careers than in business.
It'd be a miracle if Susan Hall won in London (has anyone seen or heard an interview with her, I don't mean for rarity but for how it actually went?) but there are a few women on the Tory back benches who were actually elected on the strength of the red wall/brexit who are on a par with her. Compared to them, Rishi seems like a genius.
I’m seeing lots of YouTube videos for her campaign in recent days. The usual one is going on about ULEZ.
It'd be a miracle if Susan Hall won in London (has anyone seen or heard an interview with her, I don't mean for rarity but for how it actually went?) but there are a few women on the Tory back benches who were actually elected on the strength of the red wall/brexit who are on a par with her. Compared to them, Rishi seems like a genius.
I’m seeing lots of YouTube videos for her campaign in recent days. The usual one is going on about ULEZ.
Good morning everyone; brighter and indeed spring like today.
As someone who lives outside London, and rarely drives into it, and if he does uses a three-year-old car, what is the problem with ULEZ? Surely reducing emissions is a good thing?
Last summer, there was genuine anxiety that everyone would have to get an electric car- there wasn't recognition that relatively few cars would be affected. There was also a feeling that public transport (although stonkingly good compared with the provinces) wasn't good enough. Personally, I disagree, but I can see that milages vary. There's also the observation that outer London/ inner Essex is the spiritual home of white van man, and many of them were affected.
So yes, there was enough of a "it's a sledgehammer to crack a nut" case to be plausible, especially in the hands of people who like arguments and don't like Mayor Khan.
But it's largely a dead issue now. There are people campaigning against ULEZ out here in "Essex, actually", doing demos and blocking cameras. But not many, and increasingly cranky.
That London Conservatives have invested so much in the issue shows how poor their political instincts are.
The issue now is that you have conspiracy theorists cranks literally destroying cameras at intersections which then takes out the traffic lights as well. And the local tories are encouraging this behaviour!
It's a testament to the unequal treatment the two parties receive in the press that you have both local and national Tory politicians encouraging people to destroy public property in terrorist acts and no one bats an eyelid. Can you imagine the headlines if a Labour politician did something similar? See also Tory Islamophobia versus Labour Antisemitism. And the Tories taking £15mn from a racist who "jokes" about shooting MPs despite the murder of two MPs in recent years... And they just keep the money like it was nothing! The way that the debate is rigged in favour of the Tories is a sight to behold - and even with all that they're only on 20%. God help them if we ever had a level playing field.
If Sunak lives in the reality where Hall is potentially beating Khan then there is no hope for a reality based politics from this government going forward...
Germany is more exposed to energy price shocks from Russia than we are. Not everything is Brexit. At the same time, you can't point to other countries having different issues to us and say that it disproves Brexit is a problem for us.
I was being sarcastic.
In the scale of things Brexit has been, even in this country, a triviality compared to covid and energy prices.
That is one of the funniest, and one of the saddest things I've heard in a while.
Sunak allies aware that May 2 locals are a huge flashpoint, but they hope Susan Hall can get the PM out of jail by defeating Sadiq Khan against the odds in London
That can't be the reason he ruled out a May election... can it ?
If Sunak thinks Hall can win London, we are left with two options:
1) He is rigging the election on a scale that would make Vladimir Putin blink.
2) He is smoking weed.
Given that even rigging the election by stuffing every ballot box with 50,000 votes for Hall would not be enough, I’m thinking (1) is unlikely.
Rishi is shit at politics. He gets angry at PMQs and media questions because he genuinely thinks everything is great and that it’s obvious how awful Starmer is and why aren’t people getting it?
I don’t think it’s weed. He is simply too rich and successful to be wrong. So everyone else must be wrong. Of course Hall will defeat Khan - he’s awful…
He's failing, he's never failed before, he doesn't know how to process that.
He has failed before.
He failed to win the leadership contest against lettuce Liz.
Germany is more exposed to energy price shocks from Russia than we are. Not everything is Brexit. At the same time, you can't point to other countries having different issues to us and say that it disproves Brexit is a problem for us.
Why not ? You point at just about anything and cry Brexit. It's a two way street. We could of course take a balanced approach but that wouldnt be PB would it ?
Balance? Balance! Pffft.
It's worth a note that like all the regular guff from eg Best for Britain, the comparison is with an imagined scenario as to what is believed what could have happened on a different "time line" (borrowing terminology from The Doctor).
The Germans are rebalancing and it will take them a bit of time. They will have a Defence Budget of 2% of GDP in 2024, up from a regular 1.3->1.4% for the last decade.
I think they will be out of it by say 2030, because whilst retrenching they will continue to invest, which is a stark contrast to the UK.
Anecdata that might be of some small comfort to Number 10: I've not picked up any hostility to Rishi personally or even as Prime Minister.
Well I certainly have, and not just from my tory-voting blue wall friend either.
Lots of people I know think he’s godawful and useless. My LibDem leaning, but sometime tory voting, brother can’t stand Sunak especially his parroting nonsense and bizarre fixation with sending people off to Rwanda. He think Sunak’s gone potty.
The polls back me up on this. Sunak is immensely unpopular.
Thinking the Prime Minister is useless does not necessarily mean people are hostile to him; they might be indifferent. If you are right then replacing the leader will improve the party's prospects. If I'm right, it will be futile.
Replacing the leader will be futile. The problem is the Conservative *brand*, not *just* Sunak. A good leader, given time, could fix the brand (*). But Sunak is not a good leader; the party is not in the mood to be led, and there is no time.
(*) As Hague and IDS did not, but Howard and Cameron did.
This is exactly it. Nobody know what they stand for or what you could get if voting for them. It spans big state one nation blairism, blood and soil ethnonationalism, or radical libertarianism. It is freaking bonkers the range of possible outcomes you could get. And, of course, because they contain such radical ideological divergence, their majority is utterly useless.... they cannot enact anything. I am astounded that 1/5 of the population is willing to vote for this dumpster fire. Surely it can only be due to unthinking habitation over many decades that keeps even these voters locked in 🤷
On the other hand, we have little idea what Starmer will do with his stonking majority. There seem to be lots of "don't frighten the horses!" small change rhetoric, but there's a good chance Starmer will be much braver than Blair was when faced with a large majority.
What is 'Starmerism'?
Didn't you read the leading telegraph article today. Reeves is giving the Maise Lecture today.
No, I didn't. It's paywalled, so I could only read the first couple of lines.
But there's one thing I'd say: if she's really aiming for a decade of renewal, then it's a positive thing, as few politicians ever look beyond the next electoral cycle. Although I'd prefer two decades.
You believe it’s more than a nice phrase?
If Labour get the stonking majority I think they'll get, then they'll have enough room for brave, long-term thinking and planning.
Things Blair lacked.
Having the room is not the same as taking advantage of it
Not totally unrelated. Brexit undoubtedly encouraged Putin that the West was weak and he should try his hand in Ukraine.
Desperate.
Perhaps the utter weakness shown by the West to all the other Russian aggressions had more to do with it.
Or that Germany had Putin's fan girl GDR Merkel hooking the German economy on Russian energy and Russian money for 16 years.
Or that sleepy Joe had presided over humiliation in Afghanistan.
Or that the Western world had been making defence cuts for three decades irrespective of the world situation.
Brexit is at least as convincing a contributor as any of those.
Weak whataboutery on your part: You mention German living standards falling and sarcastically suggest it's due to Brexit; I point out that there is a link; you raise several other things that may or may not have contributed. So what? Brexit was definitely a factor in encouraging Putin, and Putin invading Ukraine is definitely a major cause of German economic woes.
"A factor" I take it you dont believe in quantifying things to gain a sense of perspective ?
Indeed, it's all those unsold German vehicles and consumer electronics rusting portside in Calais awaiting the correct paperwork.
You mean our Govt has finally got phase 1 of the appropriate border controls organised 4 years after the entire thing should have been in place?
What happened? Did they keep their fingers out which allowed something to happen? Were they all too busy in their sack stabbing all the other rats in the back?
Germany is more exposed to energy price shocks from Russia than we are. Not everything is Brexit. At the same time, you can't point to other countries having different issues to us and say that it disproves Brexit is a problem for us.
Why not ? You point at just about anything and cry Brexit. It's a two way street. We could of course take a balanced approach but that wouldnt be PB would it ?
In fairness Brexit has been an obsession or source of causation in some posters minds that bears a remarkable similarity to the position that the EU held before Brexit in the minds of many Brexiteers. At that time the EU was irrationally blamed for most of our self inflicted problems and used as both a punchbag and excuse for every failure. There is some moral equivalence in those so obsessed with Brexit now doing the same.
Doesn't mean that both are not wrong and irrational, of course. In an ideal world we would start to accept the consequences of our own decisions in a mature way. But we are so far from that that it seems naïve even to dream about it.
That argument has some sense, but it would be more completely convincing if Brexit had been promptly and efficiently implemented. A lot of people in business are finding real problems, and more will.
Germany is more exposed to energy price shocks from Russia than we are. Not everything is Brexit. At the same time, you can't point to other countries having different issues to us and say that it disproves Brexit is a problem for us.
Why not ? You point at just about anything and cry Brexit. It's a two way street. We could of course take a balanced approach but that wouldnt be PB would it ?
In fairness Brexit has been an obsession or source of causation in some posters minds that bears a remarkable similarity to the position that the EU held before Brexit in the minds of many Brexiteers. At that time the EU was irrationally blamed for most of our self inflicted problems and used as both a punchbag and excuse for every failure. There is some moral equivalence in those so obsessed with Brexit now doing the same.
Doesn't mean that both are not wrong and irrational, of course. In an ideal world we would start to accept the consequences of our own decisions in a mature way. But we are so far from that that it seems naïve even to dream about it.
That argument has some sense, but it would be more completely convincing if Brexit had been promptly and efficiently implemented. A lot of people in business are finding real problems, and more will.
Personally in the last 5 years Ive not met many. And ive worked in numerous areas of manufacturing. And that's manufacturing where we have somehow overtaken France in the world pecking order. Not something I was expecting.
Germany is more exposed to energy price shocks from Russia than we are. Not everything is Brexit. At the same time, you can't point to other countries having different issues to us and say that it disproves Brexit is a problem for us.
Why not ? You point at just about anything and cry Brexit. It's a two way street. We could of course take a balanced approach but that wouldnt be PB would it ?
In fairness Brexit has been an obsession or source of causation in some posters minds that bears a remarkable similarity to the position that the EU held before Brexit in the minds of many Brexiteers. At that time the EU was irrationally blamed for most of our self inflicted problems and used as both a punchbag and excuse for every failure. There is some moral equivalence in those so obsessed with Brexit now doing the same.
Doesn't mean that both are not wrong and irrational, of course. In an ideal world we would start to accept the consequences of our own decisions in a mature way. But we are so far from that that it seems naïve even to dream about it.
That argument has some sense, but it would be more completely convincing if Brexit had been promptly and efficiently implemented. A lot of people in business are finding real problems, and more will.
Peronally in the last 5 years Ive not met many. And ive worked in numerous areas of manufacturing. And that's manufacturing where we have somehow overtaken France in the world pecking order. Not something I was expecting.
I think Susan Hall will lose but might do a little better than her odds suggest. Am not a London-dweller these days, but ULEZ (which was a Conservative policy?) does seem to still motivate a great deal of anti-Khan feeling in the blue ‘burbs.
It’s not a dynamic or appealing contest though. Hopefully both parties are giving proper thought to their next candidate.
To be anti-ULEZ now it’s been implemented, you have to:
- Not believe the stats on the impact on air quality, or not care - Drive, and enjoy cars and driving - Not enjoy cars and driving enough to have a petrol car less than 20 years old or a diesel less than 8 years old - if you were affected, still not changed car since ULEZ extension came in
That’s a pretty small voter demographic
The people most affected are small business tradesmen in old-ish (5yo+) vans.
There aren’t that many of them either, anymore. Our window cleaner is an example - hardly a big businessman, cleans the windows on our street every month or so for a very reasonable fee, changed his van when the original ULEZ came in here. No sweat.
(And has noted how much less dirty the windows facing our local rat run have been since ULEZ).
For all that peaple say no-one is really paying it, the old inner area ULEZ managed to raise £150m in charges and £70m in fines in year 22-23.
That's about 40000 vehicles a day, in an area with a population of 4 million or so?
So about 1 vehicle per hundred people. It's not no-one (and there are some harshly managed edge cases) but it's closer to no-one than anything else.
Now. Now.
That's the electoral base, many who come in from outside London, who are going to win the Mayoral Election for Susan Hall.
You forget that Susan Hall BF is so influential and clever that she has promised to do umpteen things that are not within the powers of the London Mayor.
This is the Great White Hope of the Idiot Wing of the Tory Party. Be appropriately respectful.
Germany is more exposed to energy price shocks from Russia than we are. Not everything is Brexit. At the same time, you can't point to other countries having different issues to us and say that it disproves Brexit is a problem for us.
Why not ? You point at just about anything and cry Brexit. It's a two way street. We could of course take a balanced approach but that wouldnt be PB would it ?
In fairness Brexit has been an obsession or source of causation in some posters minds that bears a remarkable similarity to the position that the EU held before Brexit in the minds of many Brexiteers. At that time the EU was irrationally blamed for most of our self inflicted problems and used as both a punchbag and excuse for every failure. There is some moral equivalence in those so obsessed with Brexit now doing the same.
Doesn't mean that both are not wrong and irrational, of course. In an ideal world we would start to accept the consequences of our own decisions in a mature way. But we are so far from that that it seems naïve even to dream about it.
That argument has some sense, but it would be more completely convincing if Brexit had been promptly and efficiently implemented. A lot of people in business are finding real problems, and more will.
Peronally in the last 5 years Ive not met many. And ive worked in numerous areas of manufacturing. And that's manufacturing where we have somehow overtaken France in the world pecking order. Not something I was expecting.
Germany is more exposed to energy price shocks from Russia than we are. Not everything is Brexit. At the same time, you can't point to other countries having different issues to us and say that it disproves Brexit is a problem for us.
Why not ? You point at just about anything and cry Brexit. It's a two way street. We could of course take a balanced approach but that wouldnt be PB would it ?
In fairness Brexit has been an obsession or source of causation in some posters minds that bears a remarkable similarity to the position that the EU held before Brexit in the minds of many Brexiteers. At that time the EU was irrationally blamed for most of our self inflicted problems and used as both a punchbag and excuse for every failure. There is some moral equivalence in those so obsessed with Brexit now doing the same.
Doesn't mean that both are not wrong and irrational, of course. In an ideal world we would start to accept the consequences of our own decisions in a mature way. But we are so far from that that it seems naïve even to dream about it.
It’s accepting the consequences of other people’s/nations’ decisions that rankles. Of course that’s a feature for some folk.
The Tories are shot and no one is listening to them. They need something to change the subject that the public might notice. A new leader will turn them into a joke. For Sunak I can only think of only two possibilities that are within his control.
A general election or an offer to revisit of the 2016 EU Referendum
Well no, declare war on France seems a much better option, popular, adventurous and with decent patisseries.
With Sunak's luck it would turn out like that Blackadder "time travel" special. Where Blackadder goes to "help" at the battle of Waterloo, comes back to the present day, and finds that The Italian Job features Citroen 2CVs.
The Tories are shot and no one is listening to them. They need something to change the subject that the public might notice. A new leader will turn them into a joke. For Sunak I can only think of only two possibilities that are within his control.
A general election or an offer to revisit of the 2016 EU Referendum
Well no, declare war on France seems a much better option, popular, adventurous and with decent patisseries.
At the moment he seems fixated on Rwanda and small boats so we're on the page. I haven't tried their patisseries but it seems a hell of a journey
That is one of the funniest, and one of the saddest things I've heard in a while.
Sunak allies aware that May 2 locals are a huge flashpoint, but they hope Susan Hall can get the PM out of jail by defeating Sadiq Khan against the odds in London
That can't be the reason he ruled out a May election... can it ?
If Sunak thinks Hall can win London, we are left with two options:
1) He is rigging the election on a scale that would make Vladimir Putin blink.
2) He is smoking weed.
Given that even rigging the election by stuffing every ballot box with 50,000 votes for Hall would not be enough, I’m thinking (1) is unlikely.
Rishi is shit at politics. He gets angry at PMQs and media questions because he genuinely thinks everything is great and that it’s obvious how awful Starmer is and why aren’t people getting it?
I don’t think it’s weed. He is simply too rich and successful to be wrong. So everyone else must be wrong. Of course Hall will defeat Khan - he’s awful…
He's failing, he's never failed before, he doesn't know how to process that.
He has failed before.
He failed to win the leadership contest against lettuce Liz.
That was a failed interview / promotion Rishi just continued as a back bench MP for a few weeks.
This is different - the decisions and buck stops at him and he doesn’t know what to do
The Tories are shot and no one is listening to them. They need something to change the subject that the public might notice. A new leader will turn them into a joke. For Sunak I can only think of only two possibilities that are within his control.
A general election or an offer to revisit of the 2016 EU Referendum
Well no, declare war on France seems a much better option, popular, adventurous and with decent patisseries.
With Sunak's luck it would turn out like that Blackadder "time travel" special. Where Blackadder goes to "help" at the battle of Waterloo, comes back to the present day, and finds that The Italian Job features Citroen 2CVs.
Ah yes there is that. Sunak has a touch of the Baldricks.
Not totally unrelated. Brexit undoubtedly encouraged Putin that the West was weak and he should try his hand in Ukraine.
Desperate.
Perhaps the utter weakness shown by the West to all the other Russian aggressions had more to do with it.
Or that Germany had Putin's fan girl GDR Merkel hooking the German economy on Russian energy and Russian money for 16 years.
Or that sleepy Joe had presided over humiliation in Afghanistan.
Or that the Western world had been making defence cuts for three decades irrespective of the world situation.
Brexit is at least as convincing a contributor as any of those.
Weak whataboutery on your part: You mention German living standards falling and sarcastically suggest it's due to Brexit; I point out that there is a link; you raise several other things that may or may not have contributed. So what? Brexit was definitely a factor in encouraging Putin, and Putin invading Ukraine is definitely a major cause of German economic woes.
"A factor" I take it you dont believe in quantifying things to gain a sense of perspective ?
The German economy has been hit by four things, all at once:
Firstly, demand from China for capital goods (German's biggest export) have come down quite sharply. This the Chinese economy moving to the next stage of their evolution, and it's not particularly good news for Germany. Now, it's possible that the rest of Asia - which is going through rapid industrialisation - like Bangladesh and Vietnam will take up the slack, but right now, sales to China are dropping faster than other places are growing,
Secondly, Germany car companies are behind the curve on electrification. Now, they're not as far behind as the Japanese, but they have minimal shares in the electric market, and that's the only part of the car market that's growing. Now, this is changing. But it's unlikely that VW, BMW or Mercedes will have the same market shares in the future that they do now, and that's going to be painful for them. (Porsche on the other hand seems to be doing OK.)
Thirdly, they've been hit by rising energy prices. But, the hit they've taken is no different to any other country's hit. They've been somewhat supported by lots of wind, solar and lignite production, albeit the decision to keep closing the nuclear plants even as the war was kicking off was madness.
Fourth, Germany has done a very poor job in encouraging consumer spending. Household savings rates are still about 20%. Now, this is an opportunity for them; if they return them to normal (for Germany) levels of 13-14%, then there would be a pretty strong consumer boom. Mrs Merkel's insistence on suppressing personal demand - not her affinity for Russian gas - was the worst of her offences.
It'd be a miracle if Susan Hall won in London (has anyone seen or heard an interview with her, I don't mean for rarity but for how it actually went?) but there are a few women on the Tory back benches who were actually elected on the strength of the red wall/brexit who are on a par with her. Compared to them, Rishi seems like a genius.
I’m seeing lots of YouTube videos for her campaign in recent days. The usual one is going on about ULEZ.
It'd be a miracle if Susan Hall won in London (has anyone seen or heard an interview with her, I don't mean for rarity but for how it actually went?) but there are a few women on the Tory back benches who were actually elected on the strength of the red wall/brexit who are on a par with her. Compared to them, Rishi seems like a genius.
I’m seeing lots of YouTube videos for her campaign in recent days. The usual one is going on about ULEZ.
Good morning everyone; brighter and indeed spring like today.
As someone who lives outside London, and rarely drives into it, and if he does uses a three-year-old car, what is the problem with ULEZ? Surely reducing emissions is a good thing?
Last summer, there was genuine anxiety that everyone would have to get an electric car- there wasn't recognition that relatively few cars would be affected. There was also a feeling that public transport (although stonkingly good compared with the provinces) wasn't good enough. Personally, I disagree, but I can see that milages vary. There's also the observation that outer London/ inner Essex is the spiritual home of white van man, and many of them were affected.
So yes, there was enough of a "it's a sledgehammer to crack a nut" case to be plausible, especially in the hands of people who like arguments and don't like Mayor Khan.
But it's largely a dead issue now. There are people campaigning against ULEZ out here in "Essex, actually", doing demos and blocking cameras. But not many, and increasingly cranky.
That London Conservatives have invested so much in the issue shows how poor their political instincts are.
The issue now is that you have conspiracy theorists cranks literally destroying cameras at intersections which then takes out the traffic lights as well. And the local tories are encouraging this behaviour!
It's a testament to the unequal treatment the two parties receive in the press that you have both local and national Tory politicians encouraging people to destroy public property in terrorist acts and no one bats an eyelid. Can you imagine the headlines if a Labour politician did something similar? See also Tory Islamophobia versus Labour Antisemitism. And the Tories taking £15mn from a racist who "jokes" about shooting MPs despite the murder of two MPs in recent years... And they just keep the money like it was nothing! The way that the debate is rigged in favour of the Tories is a sight to behold - and even with all that they're only on 20%. God help them if we ever had a level playing field.
The UK press leaning on the scales in favour of the Tories is, for now, a long established tradition that I think is worth tolerating for fear of what would happen if it ever lost its conservative flavour: forget GB News, we'd go full on US-style partisan media consumption where two halves of the country would be getting their news from completely different sets of crackpots, and the right wing content - already trending that way in part - would start to resemble US output.
Germany is more exposed to energy price shocks from Russia than we are. Not everything is Brexit. At the same time, you can't point to other countries having different issues to us and say that it disproves Brexit is a problem for us.
I was being sarcastic.
In the scale of things Brexit has been, even in this country, a triviality compared to covid and energy prices.
£170 billion down the back of a sofa? Seems like a lot of dosh to me
Indeed, it's all those unsold German vehicles and consumer electronics rusting portside in Calais awaiting the correct paperwork.
sounds good to me, we may get some relief on the balance of payments.
Balance of payments is a function of domestic demand: unless you increase UK household savings rates, all you will do is change where you suck imports un from.
Not totally unrelated. Brexit undoubtedly encouraged Putin that the West was weak and he should try his hand in Ukraine.
Desperate.
Perhaps the utter weakness shown by the West to all the other Russian aggressions had more to do with it.
Or that Germany had Putin's fan girl GDR Merkel hooking the German economy on Russian energy and Russian money for 16 years.
Or that sleepy Joe had presided over humiliation in Afghanistan.
Or that the Western world had been making defence cuts for three decades irrespective of the world situation.
Brexit is at least as convincing a contributor as any of those.
Weak whataboutery on your part: You mention German living standards falling and sarcastically suggest it's due to Brexit; I point out that there is a link; you raise several other things that may or may not have contributed. So what? Brexit was definitely a factor in encouraging Putin, and Putin invading Ukraine is definitely a major cause of German economic woes.
"A factor" I take it you dont believe in quantifying things to gain a sense of perspective ?
The German economy has been hit by four things, all at once:
Firstly, demand from China for capital goods (German's biggest export) have come down quite sharply. This the Chinese economy moving to the next stage of their evolution, and it's not particularly good news for Germany. Now, it's possible that the rest of Asia - which is going through rapid industrialisation - like Bangladesh and Vietnam will take up the slack, but right now, sales to China are dropping faster than other places are growing,
Secondly, Germany car companies are behind the curve on electrification. Now, they're not as far behind as the Japanese, but they have minimal shares in the electric market, and that's the only part of the car market that's growing. Now, this is changing. But it's unlikely that VW, BMW or Mercedes will have the same market shares in the future that they do now, and that's going to be painful for them. (Porsche on the other hand seems to be doing OK.)
Thirdly, they've been hit by rising energy prices. But, the hit they've taken is no different to any other country's hit. They've been somewhat supported by lots of wind, solar and lignite production, albeit the decision to keep closing the nuclear plants even as the war was kicking off was madness.
Fourth, Germany has done a very poor job in encouraging consumer spending. Household savings rates are still about 20%. Now, this is an opportunity for them; if they return them to normal (for Germany) levels of 13-14%, then there would be a pretty strong consumer boom. Mrs Merkel's insistence on suppressing personal demand - not her affinity for Russian gas - was the worst of her offences.
I would add to that the government got €60 billion hit at short notice when the Constitutional court said they couldnt use approved Covid monies in general spend. They had to reorganise the budget in a hurry - cut spending and raise taxes. So theyre in a bit of a bind atm. But as I always say never underestimate the Germans they may be down but theyre never out.
Not totally unrelated. Brexit undoubtedly encouraged Putin that the West was weak and he should try his hand in Ukraine.
Desperate.
Perhaps the utter weakness shown by the West to all the other Russian aggressions had more to do with it.
Or that Germany had Putin's fan girl GDR Merkel hooking the German economy on Russian energy and Russian money for 16 years.
Or that sleepy Joe had presided over humiliation in Afghanistan.
Or that the Western world had been making defence cuts for three decades irrespective of the world situation.
Brexit is at least as convincing a contributor as any of those.
Weak whataboutery on your part: You mention German living standards falling and sarcastically suggest it's due to Brexit; I point out that there is a link; you raise several other things that may or may not have contributed. So what? Brexit was definitely a factor in encouraging Putin, and Putin invading Ukraine is definitely a major cause of German economic woes.
So you think the West's weakness to all the other Russian aggression may not have contributed.
Or that how Germany had become hooked on Russian energy may not have contributed even though Germany was doing everything it could to hinder arms deliveries to Ukraine:
Germany is more exposed to energy price shocks from Russia than we are. Not everything is Brexit. At the same time, you can't point to other countries having different issues to us and say that it disproves Brexit is a problem for us.
I was being sarcastic.
In the scale of things Brexit has been, even in this country, a triviality compared to covid and energy prices.
It's not if you have say French suppliers and German customers.
Anecdata that might be of some small comfort to Number 10: I've not picked up any hostility to Rishi personally or even as Prime Minister.
Well I certainly have, and not just from my tory-voting blue wall friend either.
Lots of people I know think he’s godawful and useless. My LibDem leaning, but sometime tory voting, brother can’t stand Sunak especially his parroting nonsense and bizarre fixation with sending people off to Rwanda. He think Sunak’s gone potty.
The polls back me up on this. Sunak is immensely unpopular.
Thinking the Prime Minister is useless does not necessarily mean people are hostile to him; they might be indifferent. If you are right then replacing the leader will improve the party's prospects. If I'm right, it will be futile.
Replacing the leader will be futile. The problem is the Conservative *brand*, not *just* Sunak. A good leader, given time, could fix the brand (*). But Sunak is not a good leader; the party is not in the mood to be led, and there is no time.
(*) As Hague and IDS did not, but Howard and Cameron did.
This is exactly it. Nobody know what they stand for or what you could get if voting for them. It spans big state one nation blairism, blood and soil ethnonationalism, or radical libertarianism. It is freaking bonkers the range of possible outcomes you could get. And, of course, because they contain such radical ideological divergence, their majority is utterly useless.... they cannot enact anything. I am astounded that 1/5 of the population is willing to vote for this dumpster fire. Surely it can only be due to unthinking habitation over many decades that keeps even these voters locked in 🤷
On the other hand, we have little idea what Starmer will do with his stonking majority. There seem to be lots of "don't frighten the horses!" small change rhetoric, but there's a good chance Starmer will be much braver than Blair was when faced with a large majority.
What is 'Starmerism'?
Didn't you read the leading telegraph article today. Reeves is giving the Maise Lecture today.
No, I didn't. It's paywalled, so I could only read the first couple of lines.
But there's one thing I'd say: if she's really aiming for a decade of renewal, then it's a positive thing, as few politicians ever look beyond the next electoral cycle. Although I'd prefer two decades.
You believe it’s more than a nice phrase?
If Labour get the stonking majority I think they'll get, then they'll have enough room for brave, long-term thinking and planning.
Things Blair lacked.
Having the room is not the same as taking advantage of it
No but it’s pretty desperate stuff on here from the remaining right wingers that they think Labour will fail.
It may take a long time to fix things, and I’m not now sure Labour will get this country back on track, but compared to the horror show of the last 5 years it may seem like sunlit uplands once more.
The tories could be out of power for a very, very, long time.
At the end of the day yet another leadership change will not make the slightest difference to Tory poll ratings. Cutting tax, growing wages and the economy, getting interest rates stable and controlling immigration will
The Tories are shot and no one is listening to them. They need something to change the subject that the public might notice. A new leader will turn them into a joke. For Sunak I can only think of only two possibilities that are within his control.
A general election or an offer to revisit of the 2016 EU Referendum
Well no, declare war on France seems a much better option, popular, adventurous and with decent patisseries.
At the moment he seems fixated on Rwanda and small boats so we're on the page. I haven't tried their patisseries but it seems a hell of a journey
You haven't tried Rwandan patisserie? Or you haven't tried French patisserie?
I dreamed about visiting Rwanda last night. Loosely connected with the current news cycle. It all looked very pleasant and suburban - I was remarking at all the nice old 19th century weatherboarded architecture. In fact it was sort of Rwanda and New England, at the same time. I don't recall exactly why I was sent there but it seemed work-related and somehow to do with HS2, which has nothing to do with my actual work.
Indeed, it's all those unsold German vehicles and consumer electronics rusting portside in Calais awaiting the correct paperwork.
sounds good to me, we may get some relief on the balance of payments.
Balance of payments is a function of domestic demand: unless you increase UK household savings rates, all you will do is change where you suck imports un from.
Indeed, it's all those unsold German vehicles and consumer electronics rusting portside in Calais awaiting the correct paperwork.
sounds good to me, we may get some relief on the balance of payments.
Balance of payments is a function of domestic demand: unless you increase UK household savings rates, all you will do is change where you suck imports un from.
Germany is more exposed to energy price shocks from Russia than we are. Not everything is Brexit. At the same time, you can't point to other countries having different issues to us and say that it disproves Brexit is a problem for us.
I was being sarcastic.
In the scale of things Brexit has been, even in this country, a triviality compared to covid and energy prices.
It's not if you have say French suppliers and German customers.
Dont use french suppliers in the first place, theyre a nightmare.
That is one of the funniest, and one of the saddest things I've heard in a while.
Sunak allies aware that May 2 locals are a huge flashpoint, but they hope Susan Hall can get the PM out of jail by defeating Sadiq Khan against the odds in London
That can't be the reason he ruled out a May election... can it ?
If Sunak thinks Hall can win London, we are left with two options:
1) He is rigging the election on a scale that would make Vladimir Putin blink.
2) He is smoking weed.
Given that even rigging the election by stuffing every ballot box with 50,000 votes for Hall would not be enough, I’m thinking (1) is unlikely.
Rishi is shit at politics. He gets angry at PMQs and media questions because he genuinely thinks everything is great and that it’s obvious how awful Starmer is and why aren’t people getting it?
I don’t think it’s weed. He is simply too rich and successful to be wrong. So everyone else must be wrong. Of course Hall will defeat Khan - he’s awful…
He's failing, he's never failed before, he doesn't know how to process that.
He has failed before.
He failed to win the leadership contest against lettuce Liz.
That was a failed interview / promotion Rishi just continued as a back bench MP for a few weeks.
The leadership contest was rather more than that.
It went all the way to a vote and he lost. His own party membership didn’t think he was up to the job compared to, er, Liz Truss.
Admittedly they had gone loopy but he still failed.
The Tories are shot and no one is listening to them. They need something to change the subject that the public might notice. A new leader will turn them into a joke. For Sunak I can only think of only two possibilities that are within his control.
A general election or an offer to revisit of the 2016 EU Referendum
Well no, declare war on France seems a much better option, popular, adventurous and with decent patisseries.
At the moment he seems fixated on Rwanda and small boats so we're on the page. I haven't tried their patisseries but it seems a hell of a journey
You haven't tried Rwandan patisserie? Or you haven't tried French patisserie?
I dreamed about visiting Rwanda last night. Loosely connected with the current news cycle. It all looked very pleasant and suburban - I was remarking at all the nice old 19th century weatherboarded architecture. In fact it was sort of Rwanda and New England, at the same time. I don't recall exactly why I was sent there but it seemed work-related and somehow to do with HS2, which has nothing to do with my actual work.
Disappointing to discover that Zac doesn't drive his dad's old Roller, JG1.
Maybe reversing it out of an LTN is too much trouble.
Talking of which, Rishi flew by helicopter yesterday all the way from N. Yorks to Coventry to fight against the LTN in Earlsdon (Coventry's Latin Quarter). This was a close Labour marginal in 2019. It won't be next time.
Anecdata that might be of some small comfort to Number 10: I've not picked up any hostility to Rishi personally or even as Prime Minister.
Well I certainly have, and not just from my tory-voting blue wall friend either.
Lots of people I know think he’s godawful and useless. My LibDem leaning, but sometime tory voting, brother can’t stand Sunak especially his parroting nonsense and bizarre fixation with sending people off to Rwanda. He think Sunak’s gone potty.
The polls back me up on this. Sunak is immensely unpopular.
Thinking the Prime Minister is useless does not necessarily mean people are hostile to him; they might be indifferent. If you are right then replacing the leader will improve the party's prospects. If I'm right, it will be futile.
Replacing the leader will be futile. The problem is the Conservative *brand*, not *just* Sunak. A good leader, given time, could fix the brand (*). But Sunak is not a good leader; the party is not in the mood to be led, and there is no time.
(*) As Hague and IDS did not, but Howard and Cameron did.
This is exactly it. Nobody know what they stand for or what you could get if voting for them. It spans big state one nation blairism, blood and soil ethnonationalism, or radical libertarianism. It is freaking bonkers the range of possible outcomes you could get. And, of course, because they contain such radical ideological divergence, their majority is utterly useless.... they cannot enact anything. I am astounded that 1/5 of the population is willing to vote for this dumpster fire. Surely it can only be due to unthinking habitation over many decades that keeps even these voters locked in 🤷
On the other hand, we have little idea what Starmer will do with his stonking majority. There seem to be lots of "don't frighten the horses!" small change rhetoric, but there's a good chance Starmer will be much braver than Blair was when faced with a large majority.
What is 'Starmerism'?
Didn't you read the leading telegraph article today. Reeves is giving the Maise Lecture today.
No, I didn't. It's paywalled, so I could only read the first couple of lines.
But there's one thing I'd say: if she's really aiming for a decade of renewal, then it's a positive thing, as few politicians ever look beyond the next electoral cycle. Although I'd prefer two decades.
You believe it’s more than a nice phrase?
If Labour get the stonking majority I think they'll get, then they'll have enough room for brave, long-term thinking and planning.
Things Blair lacked.
Having the room is not the same as taking advantage of it
No but it’s pretty desperate stuff on here from the remaining right wingers that they think Labour will fail.
It may take a long time to fix things, and I’m not now sure Labour will get this country back on track, but compared to the horror show of the last 5 years it may seem like sunlit uplands once more.
The tories could be out of power for a very, very, long time.
Though given cost of living, high interest rates etc most incumbent governments in the west are behind in the polls at present or at best level pegging. Even recently elected ones
Germany is more exposed to energy price shocks from Russia than we are. Not everything is Brexit. At the same time, you can't point to other countries having different issues to us and say that it disproves Brexit is a problem for us.
I was being sarcastic.
In the scale of things Brexit has been, even in this country, a triviality compared to covid and energy prices.
£170 billion down the back of a sofa? Seems like a lot of dosh to me
Only £170bn ?
Why not a bazillion or a gazillion ?
Perhaps you can explain where this money would have come from given that the UK has full employment and more immigration than it can handle.
The only way would have been through increased productivity and why that would have increased much faster by being in the EU than it did when the UK was actually in the EU nobody seems able to explain.
It's all boiling down to Rwanda for Rishi, isn't it. Can he get a flight off with a refugee onboard? Preferably a young male one who looks a bit edgy. If he can he collects £1000 from Piers Morgan and - just possibly - turns this whole thing around.
Anecdata that might be of some small comfort to Number 10: I've not picked up any hostility to Rishi personally or even as Prime Minister.
Well I certainly have, and not just from my tory-voting blue wall friend either.
Lots of people I know think he’s godawful and useless. My LibDem leaning, but sometime tory voting, brother can’t stand Sunak especially his parroting nonsense and bizarre fixation with sending people off to Rwanda. He think Sunak’s gone potty.
The polls back me up on this. Sunak is immensely unpopular.
Thinking the Prime Minister is useless does not necessarily mean people are hostile to him; they might be indifferent. If you are right then replacing the leader will improve the party's prospects. If I'm right, it will be futile.
Replacing the leader will be futile. The problem is the Conservative *brand*, not *just* Sunak. A good leader, given time, could fix the brand (*). But Sunak is not a good leader; the party is not in the mood to be led, and there is no time.
(*) As Hague and IDS did not, but Howard and Cameron did.
This is exactly it. Nobody know what they stand for or what you could get if voting for them. It spans big state one nation blairism, blood and soil ethnonationalism, or radical libertarianism. It is freaking bonkers the range of possible outcomes you could get. And, of course, because they contain such radical ideological divergence, their majority is utterly useless.... they cannot enact anything. I am astounded that 1/5 of the population is willing to vote for this dumpster fire. Surely it can only be due to unthinking habitation over many decades that keeps even these voters locked in 🤷
On the other hand, we have little idea what Starmer will do with his stonking majority. There seem to be lots of "don't frighten the horses!" small change rhetoric, but there's a good chance Starmer will be much braver than Blair was when faced with a large majority.
What is 'Starmerism'?
Didn't you read the leading telegraph article today. Reeves is giving the Maise Lecture today.
No, I didn't. It's paywalled, so I could only read the first couple of lines.
But there's one thing I'd say: if she's really aiming for a decade of renewal, then it's a positive thing, as few politicians ever look beyond the next electoral cycle. Although I'd prefer two decades.
You believe it’s more than a nice phrase?
If Labour get the stonking majority I think they'll get, then they'll have enough room for brave, long-term thinking and planning.
Things Blair lacked.
Having the room is not the same as taking advantage of it
No but it’s pretty desperate stuff on here from the remaining right wingers that they think Labour will fail.
It may take a long time to fix things, and I’m not now sure Labour will get this country back on track, but compared to the horror show of the last 5 years it may seem like sunlit uplands once more.
The tories could be out of power for a very, very, long time.
Tories will still be in power after GE2024
Most likely SirKidStarver and Auterity Reeves Tories in power.
I think Susan Hall will lose but might do a little better than her odds suggest. Am not a London-dweller these days, but ULEZ (which was a Conservative policy?) does seem to still motivate a great deal of anti-Khan feeling in the blue ‘burbs.
It’s not a dynamic or appealing contest though. Hopefully both parties are giving proper thought to their next candidate.
To be anti-ULEZ now it’s been implemented, you have to:
- Not believe the stats on the impact on air quality, or not care - Drive, and enjoy cars and driving - Not enjoy cars and driving enough to have a petrol car less than 20 years old or a diesel less than 8 years old - if you were affected, still not changed car since ULEZ extension came in
That’s a pretty small voter demographic
One of the fears of the ULEZ was that the criteria would be tightened over time. So people with a compliant car now might worry that it could suddenly be non-compliant tomorrow.
well isnt that inevitable ? Once a threshold has been crossed the costs only go one way.
Yes. I was trying to be gentle about the point.
The end state for the ULEZ would be zero tailpipe emissions vehicles only.
I think Euro 6 as 'acceptable' for anti-pollution schemes is safe for an extended period of time. I bought my Euro 6 car with back in 2018 with such schemes in mind, with the intention of keeping it until electric cars become practical for my need. That could be 2030+.
The Euro 7 standard is not coming in even on new vehicles for several years.
The big cause on the pareto chart for pollution will be the remaining minority of pre-2016 vehicles, and blanket exemptions such as taxis which are allowed to continue to pollute. Plus the current level for petrol vehicles is several jumps away - is it currently Euro 4 ie 2006 registration.
That and targeting the need for a shift away from space inefficient forms of private transport to alternatives more suitable for cities.
London is continuing to invest, and imo will be OK, and Susan Hall will be marooned back in the 1980s somewhere.
At the end of the day yet another leadership change will not make the slightest difference to Tory poll ratings. Cutting tax, growing wages and the economy, getting interest rates stable and controlling immigration will
I don't see what difference cutting taxes does - for average people any cut in national taxes is a pittance and is more than made up by increases in council taxes or the fact government services are terrible. As for wage growth - the government have been actively campaigning against wage growth to prevent an "inflation spiral" despite the fact inflation wasn't caused by wage growth at all, it was caused by a bottle neck in the supply chain. I agree that Tories won't win unless material conditions for more voters change - but changing those material conditions is anathema to Tory beliefs.
I think Susan Hall will lose but might do a little better than her odds suggest. Am not a London-dweller these days, but ULEZ (which was a Conservative policy?) does seem to still motivate a great deal of anti-Khan feeling in the blue ‘burbs.
It’s not a dynamic or appealing contest though. Hopefully both parties are giving proper thought to their next candidate.
To be anti-ULEZ now it’s been implemented, you have to:
- Not believe the stats on the impact on air quality, or not care - Drive, and enjoy cars and driving - Not enjoy cars and driving enough to have a petrol car less than 20 years old or a diesel less than 8 years old - if you were affected, still not changed car since ULEZ extension came in
That’s a pretty small voter demographic
The people most affected are small business tradesmen in old-ish (5yo+) vans.
There aren’t that many of them either, anymore. Our window cleaner is an example - hardly a big businessman, cleans the windows on our street every month or so for a very reasonable fee, changed his van when the original ULEZ came in here. No sweat.
(And has noted how much less dirty the windows facing our local rat run have been since ULEZ).
For all that peaple say no-one is really paying it, the old inner area ULEZ managed to raise £150m in charges and £70m in fines in year 22-23.
The great irony is that ULEZ, as a revenue source, was a conservative idea. Proposed by Johnson, pushed by Shapps in the Transport for London funding arrangements. And now counter-terrorism command are arresting people for blowing up the cameras.
Germany is more exposed to energy price shocks from Russia than we are. Not everything is Brexit. At the same time, you can't point to other countries having different issues to us and say that it disproves Brexit is a problem for us.
I was being sarcastic.
In the scale of things Brexit has been, even in this country, a triviality compared to covid and energy prices.
It's not if you have say French suppliers and German customers.
People in this country have had enough of exports.
Indeed, it's all those unsold German vehicles and consumer electronics rusting portside in Calais awaiting the correct paperwork.
sounds good to me, we may get some relief on the balance of payments.
Balance of payments is a function of domestic demand: unless you increase UK household savings rates, all you will do is change where you suck imports un from.
If imports rise in price then domestic production becomes more profitable.
That the theory, certainly.
However, very few products are made entirely with components from one country. And if you're manufacturing, you will almost certainly need capital equipment (machines that make things), and that almost certainly means importing them. And at the very least, you will be paying the world (US dollar) prices for electricity and energy.
It is worth noting that Switzerland - whose currency has been dramatically stronger than the Pound over the last thirty years - has grow its exports more than 4-times relative to the UK in that period. Four times. With a massively stronger currency.
Germany is more exposed to energy price shocks from Russia than we are. Not everything is Brexit. At the same time, you can't point to other countries having different issues to us and say that it disproves Brexit is a problem for us.
I was being sarcastic.
In the scale of things Brexit has been, even in this country, a triviality compared to covid and energy prices.
It's not if you have say French suppliers and German customers.
Dont use French suppliers in the first place, they're a nightmare.
You might have let the government know before they booked Sizewell and Hinckley.
Germany is more exposed to energy price shocks from Russia than we are. Not everything is Brexit. At the same time, you can't point to other countries having different issues to us and say that it disproves Brexit is a problem for us.
I was being sarcastic.
In the scale of things Brexit has been, even in this country, a triviality compared to covid and energy prices.
It's not if you have say French suppliers and German customers.
Dont use french suppliers in the first place, theyre a nightmare.
Or any other European country. Without getting too specific, certain refractory blocks are only made by certain suppliers and sometimes they happen to be European. There might be some things that have benefitted from Brexit - democratic accountability and the ability to form our own laws in theory. Manufacturing & general business is not one of those areas.
It's all boiling down to Rwanda for Rishi, isn't it. Can he get a flight off with a refugee onboard? Preferably a young male one who looks a bit edgy. If he can he collects £1000 from Piers Morgan and - just possibly - turns this whole thing around.
No chance.
Even if it happens then you have anticipation followed by anti-climax followed by annoyance that the underlying issue hasn't been immediately solved.
Im off to Hamburg for three days today. It's interesting seeing Germany close up. There's no real money for investment and nobody has much confidence in the government. If that sound like Sunaks government I hate to say nobody reminds me more of Starmer than Olaf Scholz. 5 more wasted years.
Scholz makes Starmer look a model of decisiveness.
And Starmer was never a Marxist.
Scholz was Hamburgs big hope to get the port moving again and complete a series of investments in roads and buildings. But its all gone sour as there is no money, the taxi drivers moan about him and the locals say he's let them down.
Not just no money, the Port of Hamburg (HHLA) was incredibly poorly managed and controlled. It bought overpriced assets in Odesa and Tallinn, but tried to sell out one of the Hamburg terminals to Cosco. Basically HHLA was run into the ground on Olaf Scholz´s watch. Now it is under the control of MSC, which in Hamburg circles is regarded as a humiliation.
It's all boiling down to Rwanda for Rishi, isn't it. Can he get a flight off with a refugee onboard? Preferably a young male one who looks a bit edgy. If he can he collects £1000 from Piers Morgan and - just possibly - turns this whole thing around.
Has anyone considered the practicalities of flying a jumbo full of reluctant passengers?
Indeed, it's all those unsold German vehicles and consumer electronics rusting portside in Calais awaiting the correct paperwork.
sounds good to me, we may get some relief on the balance of payments.
Balance of payments is a function of domestic demand: unless you increase UK household savings rates, all you will do is change where you suck imports un from.
If imports rise in price then domestic production becomes more profitable.
That the theory, certainly.
However, very few products are made entirely with components from one country. And if you're manufacturing, you will almost certainly need capital equipment (machines that make things), and that almost certainly means importing them. And at the very least, you will be paying the world (US dollar) prices for electricity and energy.
It is worth noting that Switzerland - whose currency has been dramatically stronger than the Pound over the last thirty years - has grow its exports more than 4-times relative to the UK in that period. Four times. With a massively stronger currency.
More rubbish is talked about the balance of payments than any other economic indicator, a fair amount of it on this site. (Of course understanding it needs a higher degree or two in a specialised part of economics or at least a willingness to think things through logically, so that's perhaps not surprising).
In a floating exchange rate system it doesn't matter much, because the current and capital accounts always balance. Far more important is to have internal balance not external balance. Worrying about external balance is a legacy of the fixed exchange rate systems of the postwar period.
It DOES matter as a symptom of wider problems in the tradeable goods sector - we crucify our manufacturers with high energy costs and absurd planning regulations. We should address those.
Germany is more exposed to energy price shocks from Russia than we are. Not everything is Brexit. At the same time, you can't point to other countries having different issues to us and say that it disproves Brexit is a problem for us.
Why not ? You point at just about anything and cry Brexit. It's a two way street. We could of course take a balanced approach but that wouldnt be PB would it ?
In fairness Brexit has been an obsession or source of causation in some posters minds that bears a remarkable similarity to the position that the EU held before Brexit in the minds of many Brexiteers. At that time the EU was irrationally blamed for most of our self inflicted problems and used as both a punchbag and excuse for every failure. There is some moral equivalence in those so obsessed with Brexit now doing the same.
Doesn't mean that both are not wrong and irrational, of course. In an ideal world we would start to accept the consequences of our own decisions in a mature way. But we are so far from that that it seems naïve even to dream about it.
That argument has some sense, but it would be more completely convincing if Brexit had been promptly and efficiently implemented. A lot of people in business are finding real problems, and more will.
They polled advertisers and associated trades before the referendum and the figures were 93% Remain. At the time the UK was second in the world behind the US and in terms of creativity arguably top.
Whether it helped eylets factories in Hartlepool I have no idea but I'm absolutely certain it has screwed up many more people and industries than it has benefitted.
It's all boiling down to Rwanda for Rishi, isn't it. Can he get a flight off with a refugee onboard? Preferably a young male one who looks a bit edgy. If he can he collects £1000 from Piers Morgan and - just possibly - turns this whole thing around.
No chance.
Even if it happens then you have anticipation followed by anti-climax followed by annoyance that the underlying issue hasn't been immediately solved.
It'll be a genuine 'moment' though. Worth up to 5%, I'd say.
Anecdata that might be of some small comfort to Number 10: I've not picked up any hostility to Rishi personally or even as Prime Minister.
Well I certainly have, and not just from my tory-voting blue wall friend either.
Lots of people I know think he’s godawful and useless. My LibDem leaning, but sometime tory voting, brother can’t stand Sunak especially his parroting nonsense and bizarre fixation with sending people off to Rwanda. He think Sunak’s gone potty.
The polls back me up on this. Sunak is immensely unpopular.
Thinking the Prime Minister is useless does not necessarily mean people are hostile to him; they might be indifferent. If you are right then replacing the leader will improve the party's prospects. If I'm right, it will be futile.
Replacing the leader will be futile. The problem is the Conservative *brand*, not *just* Sunak. A good leader, given time, could fix the brand (*). But Sunak is not a good leader; the party is not in the mood to be led, and there is no time.
(*) As Hague and IDS did not, but Howard and Cameron did.
This is exactly it. Nobody know what they stand for or what you could get if voting for them. It spans big state one nation blairism, blood and soil ethnonationalism, or radical libertarianism. It is freaking bonkers the range of possible outcomes you could get. And, of course, because they contain such radical ideological divergence, their majority is utterly useless.... they cannot enact anything. I am astounded that 1/5 of the population is willing to vote for this dumpster fire. Surely it can only be due to unthinking habitation over many decades that keeps even these voters locked in 🤷
On the other hand, we have little idea what Starmer will do with his stonking majority. There seem to be lots of "don't frighten the horses!" small change rhetoric, but there's a good chance Starmer will be much braver than Blair was when faced with a large majority.
What is 'Starmerism'?
Didn't you read the leading telegraph article today. Reeves is giving the Maise Lecture today.
No, I didn't. It's paywalled, so I could only read the first couple of lines.
But there's one thing I'd say: if she's really aiming for a decade of renewal, then it's a positive thing, as few politicians ever look beyond the next electoral cycle. Although I'd prefer two decades.
You believe it’s more than a nice phrase?
If Labour get the stonking majority I think they'll get, then they'll have enough room for brave, long-term thinking and planning.
Things Blair lacked.
Having the room is not the same as taking advantage of it
No but it’s pretty desperate stuff on here from the remaining right wingers that they think Labour will fail.
It may take a long time to fix things, and I’m not now sure Labour will get this country back on track, but compared to the horror show of the last 5 years it may seem like sunlit uplands once more.
The tories could be out of power for a very, very, long time.
Tories will still be in power after GE2024
Most likely SirKidStarver and Auterity Reeves Tories in power.
I don't think it is useful calling SKS's Labour Tories - they may be as economically right wing as Cameronite and Osbournite Tories were, but there are some (troubling) key differences.
SKS is a petty authoritarian in ways that some Tories, most notably Cameron, just aren't. I am still of the belief that if he wins a large enough majority he will just remove the whip from anyone on the left of the party at the first opportunity, as he has done as LOTO.
He will likely keep and expand the anti protest laws the current crop of Tories have brought in, and will likely do Blairist "nanny state" sort of regulations that are atypical for the Tory party. I also think that SKS's Labour will be much more technocratic than Tories tend to be - especially with their words of warmth towards AI being involved in NHS triaging and the like. The same Blairite mentality that proliferated CCTV cameras in the UK will similarly inform SKS's policies for the worse.
Notably Taiwan is now the sixth most positively viewed county on those polled. And the "US itself" is now fourth on the list of United States’ greatest enemies...
Indeed, it's all those unsold German vehicles and consumer electronics rusting portside in Calais awaiting the correct paperwork.
sounds good to me, we may get some relief on the balance of payments.
Balance of payments is a function of domestic demand: unless you increase UK household savings rates, all you will do is change where you suck imports un from.
If imports rise in price then domestic production becomes more profitable.
That the theory, certainly.
However, very few products are made entirely with components from one country. And if you're manufacturing, you will almost certainly need capital equipment (machines that make things), and that almost certainly means importing them. And at the very least, you will be paying the world (US dollar) prices for electricity and energy.
It is worth noting that Switzerland - whose currency has been dramatically stronger than the Pound over the last thirty years - has grow its exports more than 4-times relative to the UK in that period. Four times. With a massively stronger currency.
The UK's trade deficit is near enough equal to its tourism deficit.
Stick a 100% tax on foreign holidays for 'environmental reasons' and you'd get demand shifted to labour intensive domestic production.
Might be a vote winner in clapped out coastal communities as well. But not anywhere else.
I read that yesterday and was gobsmacked. He must be very reckless, very unlucky or he has Constable Savage on his case.
It was noted by the judge that speeding causes more emissions, so I get the sense he either pissed off everyone at every stage with a "don't you know who I am" attitude, or people just like to hold people with power to account when they can.
It's all boiling down to Rwanda for Rishi, isn't it. Can he get a flight off with a refugee onboard? Preferably a young male one who looks a bit edgy. If he can he collects £1000 from Piers Morgan and - just possibly - turns this whole thing around.
Has anyone considered the practicalities of flying a jumbo full of reluctant passengers?
Not totally unrelated. Brexit undoubtedly encouraged Putin that the West was weak and he should try his hand in Ukraine.
Desperate.
Perhaps the utter weakness shown by the West to all the other Russian aggressions had more to do with it.
Or that Germany had Putin's fan girl GDR Merkel hooking the German economy on Russian energy and Russian money for 16 years.
Or that sleepy Joe had presided over humiliation in Afghanistan.
Or that the Western world had been making defence cuts for three decades irrespective of the world situation.
Brexit is at least as convincing a contributor as any of those.
Weak whataboutery on your part: You mention German living standards falling and sarcastically suggest it's due to Brexit; I point out that there is a link; you raise several other things that may or may not have contributed. So what? Brexit was definitely a factor in encouraging Putin, and Putin invading Ukraine is definitely a major cause of German economic woes.
"A factor" I take it you dont believe in quantifying things to gain a sense of perspective ?
The German economy has been hit by four things, all at once:
Firstly, demand from China for capital goods (German's biggest export) have come down quite sharply. This the Chinese economy moving to the next stage of their evolution, and it's not particularly good news for Germany. Now, it's possible that the rest of Asia - which is going through rapid industrialisation - like Bangladesh and Vietnam will take up the slack, but right now, sales to China are dropping faster than other places are growing,
Secondly, Germany car companies are behind the curve on electrification. Now, they're not as far behind as the Japanese, but they have minimal shares in the electric market, and that's the only part of the car market that's growing. Now, this is changing. But it's unlikely that VW, BMW or Mercedes will have the same market shares in the future that they do now, and that's going to be painful for them. (Porsche on the other hand seems to be doing OK.)
Thirdly, they've been hit by rising energy prices. But, the hit they've taken is no different to any other country's hit. They've been somewhat supported by lots of wind, solar and lignite production, albeit the decision to keep closing the nuclear plants even as the war was kicking off was madness.
Fourth, Germany has done a very poor job in encouraging consumer spending. Household savings rates are still about 20%. Now, this is an opportunity for them; if they return them to normal (for Germany) levels of 13-14%, then there would be a pretty strong consumer boom. Mrs Merkel's insistence on suppressing personal demand - not her affinity for Russian gas - was the worst of her offences.
The German car industry, a bit like the American car industry has balked at all this nasty investment stuff - "Can't we just buy batteries from China?"
One thing Merkel did that I thought was a good idea was having Tesla come to Berlin - it was a massive slap in the face for the German car industry. And one that I thought would have woken them up.
One thing that Tesla gets right is that "If you do it every damn day, it *is* your core fucking business."
Indeed, it's all those unsold German vehicles and consumer electronics rusting portside in Calais awaiting the correct paperwork.
sounds good to me, we may get some relief on the balance of payments.
Balance of payments is a function of domestic demand: unless you increase UK household savings rates, all you will do is change where you suck imports un from.
As you now I would rather we didnt suck in imports in the first place and made more things we use ourselves.
The only way to do that is to raise the domestic savings rate.
The last Chancellor who implemented those policies was Howe in the early 1980s (which, btw, was the last time we ran a proper trade surplus). Nigel Lawson, who was Chief Secretary of the Treasury at the time, wrote about this in The View from Number Eleven... before he jettisoned a lot of the pro-savings policies in the mid to late 80s.
Later Kenneth Clarke did a decent job of getting the economy nearly into balance, when he implemented measures such as TESSAs and PEPs to increase savings rates.
Since then, we've had Chancellor after Chancellor who has further unbalanced the UK economy by encouraging every more personal spending, and ever less saving.
Comments
The end state for the ULEZ would be zero tailpipe emissions vehicles only.
So about 1 vehicle per hundred people. It's not no-one (and there are some harshly managed edge cases) but it's closer to no-one than anything else.
In the business plan era my assumption is that Seralan eyes up the proposals and makes his firing decisions based on that.
Mordaunt? Badenoch?
Which, sure, was petty of them, but drawing attention to it like that by overreacting was a bad omen.
Which would explain a fair bit about the state of the nation, actually.
Perhaps the utter weakness shown by the West to all the other Russian aggressions had more to do with it.
Or that Germany had Putin's fan girl GDR Merkel hooking the German economy on Russian energy and Russian money for 16 years.
Or that sleepy Joe had presided over humiliation in Afghanistan.
Or that the Western world had been making defence cuts for three decades irrespective of the world situation.
And Starmer was never a Marxist.
Doesn't mean that both are not wrong and irrational, of course. In an ideal world we would start to accept the consequences of our own decisions in a mature way. But we are so far from that that it seems naïve even to dream about it.
They go off looking for even catering, do a deal and then have to cook it themselves. They split into sub-teams with one creating the product and one creating the marketing. They can't speak so you get product and marketing utterly mismatched. Etc etc etc.
Weak whataboutery on your part: You mention German living standards falling and sarcastically suggest it's due to Brexit; I point out that there is a link; you raise several other things that may or may not have contributed. So what? Brexit was definitely a factor in encouraging Putin, and Putin invading Ukraine is definitely a major cause of German economic woes.
ETA the most obvious way The Apprentice is artificial is that every year, the producers choose candidates who are more interested in media careers than in business.
In the scale of things Brexit has been, even in this country, a triviality compared to covid and energy prices.
He failed to win the leadership contest against lettuce Liz.
The Germans are rebalancing and it will take them a bit of time. They will have a Defence Budget of 2% of GDP in 2024, up from a regular 1.3->1.4% for the last decade.
I think they will be out of it by say 2030, because whilst retrenching they will continue to invest, which is a stark contrast to the UK.
What happened? Did they keep their fingers out which allowed something to happen? Were they all too busy in their sack stabbing all the other rats in the back?
That's the electoral base, many who come in from outside London, who are going to win the Mayoral Election for Susan Hall.
You forget that Susan Hall BF is so influential and clever that she has promised to do umpteen things that are not within the powers of the London Mayor.
This is the Great White Hope of the Idiot Wing of the Tory Party. Be appropriately respectful.
Where Blackadder goes to "help" at the battle of Waterloo, comes back to the present day, and finds that The Italian Job features Citroen 2CVs.
This is different - the decisions and buck stops at him and he doesn’t know what to do
Firstly, demand from China for capital goods (German's biggest export) have come down quite sharply. This the Chinese economy moving to the next stage of their evolution, and it's not particularly good news for Germany. Now, it's possible that the rest of Asia - which is going through rapid industrialisation - like Bangladesh and Vietnam will take up the slack, but right now, sales to China are dropping faster than other places are growing,
Secondly, Germany car companies are behind the curve on electrification. Now, they're not as far behind as the Japanese, but they have minimal shares in the electric market, and that's the only part of the car market that's growing. Now, this is changing. But it's unlikely that VW, BMW or Mercedes will have the same market shares in the future that they do now, and that's going to be painful for them. (Porsche on the other hand seems to be doing OK.)
Thirdly, they've been hit by rising energy prices. But, the hit they've taken is no different to any other country's hit. They've been somewhat supported by lots of wind, solar and lignite production, albeit the decision to keep closing the nuclear plants even as the war was kicking off was madness.
Fourth, Germany has done a very poor job in encouraging consumer spending. Household savings rates are still about 20%. Now, this is an opportunity for them; if they return them to normal (for Germany) levels of 13-14%, then there would be a pretty strong consumer boom. Mrs Merkel's insistence on suppressing personal demand - not her affinity for Russian gas - was the worst of her offences.
See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pKS2TCd_3c
Or that how Germany had become hooked on Russian energy may not have contributed even though Germany was doing everything it could to hinder arms deliveries to Ukraine:
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-uk-planes-long-detour-around-germany-deliver-weapons-2022-1?r=US&IR=T
https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-blocks-nato-ally-from-transferring-weapons-to-ukraine-11642790772
Or that Sleepy Joe's humiliation in Kabul may not have contributed.
Or that three decades of Western defence cuts may not have been contributed.
But that Brexit was 'definitely a factor' ???
Brexit really isn't the be-all-and-end-all obsessionals on either side think it is.
It neither caused the invasion of Ukraine nor allowed Boris to play 'Winston in Kyiv'.
It may take a long time to fix things, and I’m not now sure Labour will get this country back on track, but compared to the horror show of the last 5 years it may seem like sunlit uplands once more.
The tories could be out of power for a very, very, long time.
I dreamed about visiting Rwanda last night. Loosely connected with the current news cycle. It all looked very pleasant and suburban - I was remarking at all the nice old 19th century weatherboarded architecture. In fact it was sort of Rwanda and New England, at the same time. I don't recall exactly why I was sent there but it seemed work-related and somehow to do with HS2, which has nothing to do with my actual work.
If imports rise in price then domestic production becomes more profitable.
It went all the way to a vote and he lost. His own party membership didn’t think he was up to the job compared to, er, Liz Truss.
Admittedly they had gone loopy but he still failed.
Maybe reversing it out of an LTN is too much trouble.
Talking of which, Rishi flew by helicopter yesterday all the way from N. Yorks to Coventry to fight against the LTN in Earlsdon (Coventry's Latin Quarter). This was a close Labour marginal in 2019. It won't be next time.
Why not a bazillion or a gazillion ?
Perhaps you can explain where this money would have come from given that the UK has full employment and more immigration than it can handle.
The only way would have been through increased productivity and why that would have increased much faster by being in the EU than it did when the UK was actually in the EU nobody seems able to explain.
Most likely SirKidStarver and Auterity Reeves Tories in power.
The Euro 7 standard is not coming in even on new vehicles for several years.
The big cause on the pareto chart for pollution will be the remaining minority of pre-2016 vehicles, and blanket exemptions such as taxis which are allowed to continue to pollute. Plus the current level for petrol vehicles is several jumps away - is it currently Euro 4 ie 2006 registration.
That and targeting the need for a shift away from space inefficient forms of private transport to alternatives more suitable for cities.
London is continuing to invest, and imo will be OK, and Susan Hall will be marooned back in the 1980s somewhere.
DfT can't bring themselves to fight "the war on motorists", and are now installing these things everywhere: https://twitter.com/transportgovuk/status/1769684932257808605?t=3l5y8CcR2CsBzy1erspAEg&s=19
However, very few products are made entirely with components from one country. And if you're manufacturing, you will almost certainly need capital equipment (machines that make things), and that almost certainly means importing them. And at the very least, you will be paying the world (US dollar) prices for electricity and energy.
It is worth noting that Switzerland - whose currency has been dramatically stronger than the Pound over the last thirty years - has grow its exports more than 4-times relative to the UK in that period. Four times. With a massively stronger currency.
Even if it happens then you have anticipation followed by anti-climax followed by annoyance that the underlying issue hasn't been immediately solved.
In a floating exchange rate system it doesn't matter much, because the current and capital accounts always balance. Far more important is to have internal balance not external balance. Worrying about external balance is a legacy of the fixed exchange rate systems of the postwar period.
It DOES matter as a symptom of wider problems in the tradeable goods sector - we crucify our manufacturers with high energy costs and absurd planning regulations. We should address those.
Whether it helped eylets factories in Hartlepool I have no idea but I'm absolutely certain it has screwed up many more people and industries than it has benefitted.
SKS is a petty authoritarian in ways that some Tories, most notably Cameron, just aren't. I am still of the belief that if he wins a large enough majority he will just remove the whip from anyone on the left of the party at the first opportunity, as he has done as LOTO.
He will likely keep and expand the anti protest laws the current crop of Tories have brought in, and will likely do Blairist "nanny state" sort of regulations that are atypical for the Tory party. I also think that SKS's Labour will be much more technocratic than Tories tend to be - especially with their words of warmth towards AI being involved in NHS triaging and the like. The same Blairite mentality that proliferated CCTV cameras in the UK will similarly inform SKS's policies for the worse.
Americans Still See China as Nation's Top Foe, Russia Second
Both countries less likely to be named than last year, while mentions of Iran swell
https://news.gallup.com/poll/612170/americans-china-nation-top-foe-russia-second.aspx#
Notably Taiwan is now the sixth most positively viewed county on those polled.
And the "US itself" is now fourth on the list of United States’ greatest enemies...
Stick a 100% tax on foreign holidays for 'environmental reasons' and you'd get demand shifted to labour intensive domestic production.
Might be a vote winner in clapped out coastal communities as well. But not anywhere else.
1922 Committee chairman Sir Graham Brady has just told Tory MPs that Rishi Sunak will address them tomorrow at 5pm.
https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1770013208943694126
One thing Merkel did that I thought was a good idea was having Tesla come to Berlin - it was a massive slap in the face for the German car industry. And one that I thought would have woken them up.
One thing that Tesla gets right is that "If you do it every damn day, it *is* your core fucking business."
The last Chancellor who implemented those policies was Howe in the early 1980s (which, btw, was the last time we ran a proper trade surplus). Nigel Lawson, who was Chief Secretary of the Treasury at the time, wrote about this in The View from Number Eleven... before he jettisoned a lot of the pro-savings policies in the mid to late 80s.
Later Kenneth Clarke did a decent job of getting the economy nearly into balance, when he implemented measures such as TESSAs and PEPs to increase savings rates.
Since then, we've had Chancellor after Chancellor who has further unbalanced the UK economy by encouraging every more personal spending, and ever less saving.