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Rishi Sunak’s Hall pass – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited April 28 in General
Rishi Sunak’s Hall pass – politicalbetting.com

— within a few hours Sunak’s operation forced to kill summer election talk— threat briefed last night by senior ally— that caused fury among MPs who said they’d remove Sunak if he tried it— now sources saying he won’t call earlier-than-expected votehttps://t.co/UemwJNmLWJ

Read the full story here

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  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    edited March 19
    Keir Starmer will not let us down. It is in the paper so it must be true.

  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    Good thread @TSE and I agree with everything you’ve written here. The idea that Susan Hall may pull off a surprise defeat of Sadiq Khan is a disturbing level of self-delusion.

    Meanwhile, I have to report on a conversation yesterday evening with my tory-voting Surrey friend.

    “I like David Cameron,” she said on questioning. “He’s done well as Foreign Secretary, particularly over the Middle East.”

    “Would you vote for them again if he were leading?” I asked. “Yes, probably."

    However, to temper this @TSE-approved vote of confidence, she did mar things by adding that she also liked Theresa May and also Penny Mordaunt. And, obvs, she still adores Boris. His misdemeanours are either tittle tattle or amusing to her.

    She loathes just about every other Conservative in office. She reeled off a batch of names that she thinks are disgusting and she intensely dislikes Sunak. To be fair she always though he was rubbish. As she herself worked in banking it’s okay for her to point out how utterly unsuited Sunak is to speak to ordinary people.

    It’s all anecdotal fluff of course but probably not too far from your typical blue wall tory.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    edited March 19
    p.s. I’ve also lent her Suzanne Heywood's What Does Jeremy Think? in the hope that her misguided views on David Cameron may be corrected.

    ;)
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    Heathener said:

    p.s. I’ve also lent her Suzanne Heywood's What Does Jeremy Think? in the hope that her misguided views on David Cameron may be corrected.

    ;)

    What worries me about that book is that particularly under Blair, Heywood seemed dangerously close to creating policy rather than merely implementing it.
  • Options
    Twickbait_55Twickbait_55 Posts: 120
    They are literally it seems fighting like rats in a sack and indeed if Sunak thinks that Hall, an awful (and in London seemingly invisible) candidate has any hope of toppling Khan then delusional is a very modest term for his view. He's looking increasingly raddled and seems to really struggle in front of the camera, just repeating, Maybot like his "we have a plan, we have a plan" spiel. Given the lamentable polls it doesn't seem to be working. This appears to be much worse than the last days of the Major years, a dead administration running on fumes and intensely disliked by the public in general. Unless he just has enough and calls an earlier date it looks increasingly like an Oct election and a significant defeat. Dreadful polling recently suggesting that both the red and blue walls will crumble, it should be a fascinating one.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    Anecdata that might be of some small comfort to Number 10: I've not picked up any hostility to Rishi personally or even as Prime Minister. Rather a more general regret that nothing works and the government hasn't a clue.

    Which is of course a problem for the government and Conservative Party. There is no policy that can be reversed like the poll tax or Iraq. No bogeyman like Boris or Liz Truss whose resignation can lance the boil.
  • Options
    Twickbait_55Twickbait_55 Posts: 120

    Anecdata that might be of some small comfort to Number 10: I've not picked up any hostility to Rishi personally or even as Prime Minister. Rather a more general regret that nothing works and the government hasn't a clue.

    Which is of course a problem for the government and Conservative Party. There is no policy that can be reversed like the poll tax or Iraq. No bogeyman like Boris or Liz Truss whose resignation can lance the boil.

    "Rather a more general regret that nothing works and the government hasn't a clue", this is correct and a very difficult one to get around. Nothing is going to change this general public perception in a few months.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906
    Trump Says Jews Who Support Democrats ‘Hate Israel’ and ‘Their Religion’
    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/18/us/politics/trump-israel-jewish-voters.html
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906
    That is one of the funniest, and one of the saddest things I've heard in a while.

    Sunak allies aware that May 2 locals are a huge flashpoint, but they hope Susan Hall can get the PM out of jail by defeating Sadiq Khan against the odds in London

    That can't be the reason he ruled out a May election... can it ?
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    edited March 19

    Anecdata that might be of some small comfort to Number 10: I've not picked up any hostility to Rishi personally or even as Prime Minister.

    Well I certainly have, and not just from my tory-voting blue wall friend either.

    Lots of people I know think he’s godawful and useless. My LibDem leaning, but sometime tory voting, brother can’t stand Sunak especially his parroting nonsense and bizarre fixation with sending people off to Rwanda. He think Sunak’s gone potty.

    The polls back me up on this. Sunak is immensely unpopular.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    edited March 19

    Heathener said:

    p.s. I’ve also lent her Suzanne Heywood's What Does Jeremy Think? in the hope that her misguided views on David Cameron may be corrected.

    ;)

    What worries me about that book is that particularly under Blair, Heywood seemed dangerously close to creating policy rather than merely implementing it.
    It shouldn’t really worry you. Senior civil servants are far brighter, more measured, more educated, on top of their briefs, and level-headed than 99.9% of elected politicians.

    The Daily Mail may profess to hate the idea but thank goodness for civil servants.

    It only really comes to a head if you have a conviction politician who is both bright and hard-working, like Margaret Thatcher.
  • Options
    Twickbait_55Twickbait_55 Posts: 120

    Smarkets for London mayor

    Khan: 95.5%
    Hall: 3.5%

    Just saying 🤷

    They really couldn't have picked a worse candidate.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,735
    A tongue-in-cheek ‘letter’ to the Telegraph’s Money Makeover reader advice column:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/jobs/help-mp-90k-salary-might-not-have-job-for-long/
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,735

    Heathener said:

    p.s. I’ve also lent her Suzanne Heywood's What Does Jeremy Think? in the hope that her misguided views on David Cameron may be corrected.

    ;)

    What worries me about that book is that particularly under Blair, Heywood seemed dangerously close to creating policy rather than merely implementing it.
    One gets the impression that it’s still very much the case in most of Whitehall, that Sir Humphrey and friends are running the show irrespective of what those we elected have to say about it.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    Heathener said:

    Anecdata that might be of some small comfort to Number 10: I've not picked up any hostility to Rishi personally or even as Prime Minister.

    Well I certainly have, and not just from my tory-voting blue wall friend either.

    Lots of people I know think he’s godawful and useless. My LibDem leaning, but sometime tory voting, brother can’t stand Sunak especially his parroting nonsense and bizarre fixation with sending people off to Rwanda. He think Sunak’s gone potty.

    The polls back me up on this. Sunak is immensely unpopular.
    Thinking the Prime Minister is useless does not necessarily mean people are hostile to him; they might be indifferent. If you are right then replacing the leader will improve the party's prospects. If I'm right, it will be futile.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    Have to credit Rishi, HYUFD and the rest of the party - quality entertainment. If plan A is Hall beats Khan then we know that Team Rishi are truly mad.

    After the kicking at the locals there will undoubtedly now be a putsch. If it succeeds then the new PM will want time, a change of direction, a new budget etc - they go long.

    If it fails? Sunak will want the autumn statement and more time for his mad bribe to resonate. That rules out October. The “triumphantly announce an election at conference” scenario touted by some is as mad as Hall beating Khan. Go before that you say - bring parliament back at the start of September for an “autumn statement” then go immediately for an election this not allowing the bribe time to work and costing the party £lots from a lost conference? Bonkers.

    If Sunak survives, or if they oust him, they must go long. At least November. But the most likely scenario surely now is complete collapse. Likely a massive row which prompts someone to push a confidence motion which the government narrowly wins which only acts to deepen the crisis.

    Final point. What if Rishi goes to the palace to be told he can’t have the election now because of the palace crisis? The king is gravely ill / the Wills & Kate divorce row etc means they need to provide stability. Lascelles principles apply. If not you Rishi then someone else…

  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,331

    Heathener said:

    Anecdata that might be of some small comfort to Number 10: I've not picked up any hostility to Rishi personally or even as Prime Minister.

    Well I certainly have, and not just from my tory-voting blue wall friend either.

    Lots of people I know think he’s godawful and useless. My LibDem leaning, but sometime tory voting, brother can’t stand Sunak especially his parroting nonsense and bizarre fixation with sending people off to Rwanda. He think Sunak’s gone potty.

    The polls back me up on this. Sunak is immensely unpopular.
    Thinking the Prime Minister is useless does not necessarily mean people are hostile to him; they might be indifferent. If you are right then replacing the leader will improve the party's prospects. If I'm right, it will be futile.
    Replacing the leader will be futile. The problem is the Conservative *brand*, not *just* Sunak. A good leader, given time, could fix the brand (*). But Sunak is not a good leader; the party is not in the mood to be led, and there is no time.

    (*) As Hague and IDS did not, but Howard and Cameron did.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982

    Replacing the leader will be futile. The problem is the Conservative *brand*, not *just* Sunak. A good leader, given time, could fix the brand (*). But Sunak is not a good leader; the party is not in the mood to be led, and there is no time.

    (*) As Hague and IDS did not, but Howard and Cameron did.

    The problem they hope to solve is to prevent Sunak trashing the brand even further, as he is doing now on a daily basis
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    If Sunak thinks Hall can win London, we are left with two options:

    1) He is rigging the election on a scale that would make Vladimir Putin blink.

    2) He is smoking weed.

    Given that even rigging the election by stuffing every ballot box with 50,000 votes for Hall would not be enough, I’m thinking (1) is unlikely.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    edited March 19

    Smarkets for London mayor

    Khan: 95.5%
    Hall: 3.5%

    Just saying 🤷

    They really couldn't have picked a worse candidate.
    Yet at the same time haven’t picked a better one for decades.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    Sandpit said:

    A tongue-in-cheek ‘letter’ to the Telegraph’s Money Makeover reader advice column:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/jobs/help-mp-90k-salary-might-not-have-job-for-long/

    This raises an interesting point. How, and more precisely when, do MPs' pension benefits accrue?

    From the linked Telegraph piece, re MPs' defined benefit pension: With benefits potentially accruing at a rate of 1/40th or 1/50th of their final salary per year

    Does ‘1/50th of their final salary per year’ mean 1/50th of 1/50th every week, or is it a fixed annual increment after each full year? Such considerations might sway MPs' views on election timing.
  • Options
    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 451

    Heathener said:

    Anecdata that might be of some small comfort to Number 10: I've not picked up any hostility to Rishi personally or even as Prime Minister.

    Well I certainly have, and not just from my tory-voting blue wall friend either.

    Lots of people I know think he’s godawful and useless. My LibDem leaning, but sometime tory voting, brother can’t stand Sunak especially his parroting nonsense and bizarre fixation with sending people off to Rwanda. He think Sunak’s gone potty.

    The polls back me up on this. Sunak is immensely unpopular.
    Thinking the Prime Minister is useless does not necessarily mean people are hostile to him; they might be indifferent. If you are right then replacing the leader will improve the party's prospects. If I'm right, it will be futile.
    Replacing the leader will be futile. The problem is the Conservative *brand*, not *just* Sunak. A good leader, given time, could fix the brand (*). But Sunak is not a good leader; the party is not in the mood to be led, and there is no time.

    (*) As Hague and IDS did not, but Howard and Cameron did.
    This is exactly it. Nobody know what they stand for or what you could get if voting for them. It spans big state one nation blairism, blood and soil ethnonationalism, or radical libertarianism. It is freaking bonkers the range of possible outcomes you could get. And, of course, because they contain such radical ideological divergence, their majority is utterly useless.... they cannot enact anything. I am astounded that 1/5 of the population is willing to vote for this dumpster fire. Surely it can only be due to unthinking habitation over many decades that keeps even these voters locked in 🤷
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,735

    Smarkets for London mayor

    Khan: 95.5%
    Hall: 3.5%

    Just saying 🤷

    They really couldn't have picked a worse candidate.
    She wasn’t the first choice, they tried to give it to one of Cameron’s old SpAds without vetting him properly, and he had to withdraw after nominations had closed.

    https://metro.co.uk/2023/06/28/daniel-korski-withdraws-from-mayoral-contest-after-groping-allegations-19032577/
  • Options
    sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 193
    It'd be a miracle if Susan Hall won in London (has anyone seen or heard an interview with her, I don't mean for rarity but for how it actually went?) but there are a few women on the Tory back benches who were actually elected on the strength of the red wall/brexit who are on a par with her. Compared to them, Rishi seems like a genius.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,403

    Anecdata that might be of some small comfort to Number 10: I've not picked up any hostility to Rishi personally or even as Prime Minister. Rather a more general regret that nothing works and the government hasn't a clue.

    Which is of course a problem for the government and Conservative Party. There is no policy that can be reversed like the poll tax or Iraq. No bogeyman like Boris or Liz Truss whose resignation can lance the boil.

    "Rather a more general regret that nothing works and the government hasn't a clue", this is correct and a very difficult one to get around. Nothing is going to change this general public perception in a few months.
    But but but @Heathener tells is that there is “blazing hatred” for the Tories

    My assessment is much like yours. The pills aren’t moving because voters aren’t listening any more. They’ve made up their mind. I suspect it will be a mass abstention event rather than anything more dramatic, but it’s not going to be a pretty night for the Tories.

  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,331

    Heathener said:

    Anecdata that might be of some small comfort to Number 10: I've not picked up any hostility to Rishi personally or even as Prime Minister.

    Well I certainly have, and not just from my tory-voting blue wall friend either.

    Lots of people I know think he’s godawful and useless. My LibDem leaning, but sometime tory voting, brother can’t stand Sunak especially his parroting nonsense and bizarre fixation with sending people off to Rwanda. He think Sunak’s gone potty.

    The polls back me up on this. Sunak is immensely unpopular.
    Thinking the Prime Minister is useless does not necessarily mean people are hostile to him; they might be indifferent. If you are right then replacing the leader will improve the party's prospects. If I'm right, it will be futile.
    Replacing the leader will be futile. The problem is the Conservative *brand*, not *just* Sunak. A good leader, given time, could fix the brand (*). But Sunak is not a good leader; the party is not in the mood to be led, and there is no time.

    (*) As Hague and IDS did not, but Howard and Cameron did.
    This is exactly it. Nobody know what they stand for or what you could get if voting for them. It spans big state one nation blairism, blood and soil ethnonationalism, or radical libertarianism. It is freaking bonkers the range of possible outcomes you could get. And, of course, because they contain such radical ideological divergence, their majority is utterly useless.... they cannot enact anything. I am astounded that 1/5 of the population is willing to vote for this dumpster fire. Surely it can only be due to unthinking habitation over many decades that keeps even these voters locked in 🤷
    On the other hand, we have little idea what Starmer will do with his stonking majority. There seem to be lots of "don't frighten the horses!" small change rhetoric, but there's a good chance Starmer will be much braver than Blair was when faced with a large majority.

    What is 'Starmerism'?
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,403

    Smarkets for London mayor

    Khan: 95.5%
    Hall: 3.5%

    Just saying 🤷

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cbrTKw50X6U
  • Options
    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 451

    Heathener said:

    Anecdata that might be of some small comfort to Number 10: I've not picked up any hostility to Rishi personally or even as Prime Minister.

    Well I certainly have, and not just from my tory-voting blue wall friend either.

    Lots of people I know think he’s godawful and useless. My LibDem leaning, but sometime tory voting, brother can’t stand Sunak especially his parroting nonsense and bizarre fixation with sending people off to Rwanda. He think Sunak’s gone potty.

    The polls back me up on this. Sunak is immensely unpopular.
    Thinking the Prime Minister is useless does not necessarily mean people are hostile to him; they might be indifferent. If you are right then replacing the leader will improve the party's prospects. If I'm right, it will be futile.
    Replacing the leader will be futile. The problem is the Conservative *brand*, not *just* Sunak. A good leader, given time, could fix the brand (*). But Sunak is not a good leader; the party is not in the mood to be led, and there is no time.

    (*) As Hague and IDS did not, but Howard and Cameron did.
    This is exactly it. Nobody know what they stand for or what you could get if voting for them. It spans big state one nation blairism, blood and soil ethnonationalism, or radical libertarianism. It is freaking bonkers the range of possible outcomes you could get. And, of course, because they contain such radical ideological divergence, their majority is utterly useless.... they cannot enact anything. I am astounded that 1/5 of the population is willing to vote for this dumpster fire. Surely it can only be due to unthinking habitation over many decades that keeps even these voters locked in 🤷
    On the other hand, we have little idea what Starmer will do with his stonking majority. There seem to be lots of "don't frighten the horses!" small change rhetoric, but there's a good chance Starmer will be much braver than Blair was when faced with a large majority.

    What is 'Starmerism'?
    Didn't you read the leading telegraph article today. Reeves is giving the Maise Lecture today.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,403

    Have to credit Rishi, HYUFD and the rest of the party - quality entertainment. If plan A is Hall beats Khan then we know that Team Rishi are truly mad.

    After the kicking at the locals there will undoubtedly now be a putsch. If it succeeds then the new PM will want time, a change of direction, a new budget etc - they go long.

    If it fails? Sunak will want the autumn statement and more time for his mad bribe to resonate. That rules out October. The “triumphantly announce an election at conference” scenario touted by some is as mad as Hall beating Khan. Go before that you say - bring parliament back at the start of September for an “autumn statement” then go immediately for an election this not allowing the bribe time to work and costing the party £lots from a lost conference? Bonkers.

    If Sunak survives, or if they oust him, they must go long. At least November. But the most likely scenario surely now is complete collapse. Likely a massive row which prompts someone to push a confidence motion which the government narrowly wins which only acts to deepen the crisis.

    Final point. What if Rishi goes to the palace to be told he can’t have the election now because of the palace crisis? The king is gravely ill / the Wills & Kate divorce row etc means they need to provide stability. Lascelles principles apply. If not you Rishi then someone else…


    Does a new leader go long?

    They have 2 choices:

    - go early: we realise we were heading in the wrong direction, new sheriff in town, clear vision for the future - give me time to implement it.
    - Go long: six month to get their feet under the table, become stale, lose the honeymoon effect and prove that they don’t have any ideas

    Plus if you go early there is a chance that you can stay on after the defeat. (I did better that we would otherwise have done but Rishi was such a disaster there was no chance really)
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677
    Sandpit said:

    Smarkets for London mayor

    Khan: 95.5%
    Hall: 3.5%

    Just saying 🤷

    They really couldn't have picked a worse candidate.
    She wasn’t the first choice, they tried to give it to one of Cameron’s old SpAds without vetting him properly, and he had to withdraw after nominations had closed.

    https://metro.co.uk/2023/06/28/daniel-korski-withdraws-from-mayoral-contest-after-groping-allegations-19032577/
    He might not have been as off-puttingly eccentric, but is there any evidence at all that he would have been a better candidate for a high profile, fairly independent, elected executive role?

    Andy Street he isn't.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,169
    sbjme19 said:

    It'd be a miracle if Susan Hall won in London (has anyone seen or heard an interview with her, I don't mean for rarity but for how it actually went?) but there are a few women on the Tory back benches who were actually elected on the strength of the red wall/brexit who are on a par with her. Compared to them, Rishi seems like a genius.

    I’m seeing lots of YouTube videos for her campaign in recent days. The usual one is going on about ULEZ.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,157
    'The Uxbridge Delusion'
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    Sandpit said:

    A tongue-in-cheek ‘letter’ to the Telegraph’s Money Makeover reader advice column:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/jobs/help-mp-90k-salary-might-not-have-job-for-long/

    This raises an interesting point. How, and more precisely when, do MPs' pension benefits accrue?

    From the linked Telegraph piece, re MPs' defined benefit pension: With benefits potentially accruing at a rate of 1/40th or 1/50th of their final salary per year

    Does ‘1/50th of their final salary per year’ mean 1/50th of 1/50th every week, or is it a fixed annual increment after each full year? Such considerations might sway MPs' views on election timing.
    The final salary is the 12 months preceeding retirement, with length of service measured down to single days of service. So the pension would go up by an index linked £900 for evey extra 6 months.
  • Options
    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 451

    Smarkets for London mayor

    Khan: 95.5%
    Hall: 3.5%

    Just saying 🤷

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cbrTKw50X6U
    🤣🤣🤣🤣
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    A tongue-in-cheek ‘letter’ to the Telegraph’s Money Makeover reader advice column:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/jobs/help-mp-90k-salary-might-not-have-job-for-long/

    This raises an interesting point. How, and more precisely when, do MPs' pension benefits accrue?

    From the linked Telegraph piece, re MPs' defined benefit pension: With benefits potentially accruing at a rate of 1/40th or 1/50th of their final salary per year

    Does ‘1/50th of their final salary per year’ mean 1/50th of 1/50th every week, or is it a fixed annual increment after each full year? Such considerations might sway MPs' views on election timing.
    The final salary is the 12 months preceeding retirement, with length of service measured down to single days of service. So the pension would go up by an index linked £900 for evey extra 6 months.
    Best of the last 3 years for final salary, and would be better for ministers too if that is considered pensionable in their superannuation, I think.

    I am fairly well read on the NHS schemes including the old final salary one as taking the pension this year, and extrapolating from that. Our accrual rate was 1/80 in the old scheme.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,617

    sbjme19 said:

    It'd be a miracle if Susan Hall won in London (has anyone seen or heard an interview with her, I don't mean for rarity but for how it actually went?) but there are a few women on the Tory back benches who were actually elected on the strength of the red wall/brexit who are on a par with her. Compared to them, Rishi seems like a genius.

    I’m seeing lots of YouTube videos for her campaign in recent days. The usual one is going on about ULEZ.

    sbjme19 said:

    It'd be a miracle if Susan Hall won in London (has anyone seen or heard an interview with her, I don't mean for rarity but for how it actually went?) but there are a few women on the Tory back benches who were actually elected on the strength of the red wall/brexit who are on a par with her. Compared to them, Rishi seems like a genius.

    I’m seeing lots of YouTube videos for her campaign in recent days. The usual one is going on about ULEZ.
    Good morning everyone; brighter and indeed spring like today.

    As someone who lives outside London, and rarely drives into it, and if he does uses a three-year-old car, what is the problem with ULEZ?
    Surely reducing emissions is a good thing?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,735
    edited March 19

    Sandpit said:

    Smarkets for London mayor

    Khan: 95.5%
    Hall: 3.5%

    Just saying 🤷

    They really couldn't have picked a worse candidate.
    She wasn’t the first choice, they tried to give it to one of Cameron’s old SpAds without vetting him properly, and he had to withdraw after nominations had closed.

    https://metro.co.uk/2023/06/28/daniel-korski-withdraws-from-mayoral-contest-after-groping-allegations-19032577/
    He might not have been as off-puttingly eccentric, but is there any evidence at all that he would have been a better candidate for a high profile, fairly independent, elected executive role?

    Andy Street he isn't.
    National politics would be in a much better place if there were more people like Andy Street and @NickPalmer getting involved in it, irrespective of party affiliation.

    People who had done something with their lives and wanted to give back to their community, as opposed to those who have spent their whole lives immersed in party politics.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    I think Susan Hall will lose but might do a little better than her odds suggest. Am not a London-dweller these days, but ULEZ (which was a Conservative policy?) does seem to still motivate a great deal of anti-Khan feeling in the blue ‘burbs.

    It’s not a dynamic or appealing contest though. Hopefully both parties are giving proper thought to their next candidate.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399

    Have to credit Rishi, HYUFD and the rest of the party - quality entertainment. If plan A is Hall beats Khan then we know that Team Rishi are truly mad.

    After the kicking at the locals there will undoubtedly now be a putsch. If it succeeds then the new PM will want time, a change of direction, a new budget etc - they go long.

    If it fails? Sunak will want the autumn statement and more time for his mad bribe to resonate. That rules out October. The “triumphantly announce an election at conference” scenario touted by some is as mad as Hall beating Khan. Go before that you say - bring parliament back at the start of September for an “autumn statement” then go immediately for an election this not allowing the bribe time to work and costing the party £lots from a lost conference? Bonkers.

    If Sunak survives, or if they oust him, they must go long. At least November. But the most likely scenario surely now is complete collapse. Likely a massive row which prompts someone to push a confidence motion which the government narrowly wins which only acts to deepen the crisis.

    Final point. What if Rishi goes to the palace to be told he can’t have the election now because of the palace crisis? The king is gravely ill / the Wills & Kate divorce row etc means they need to provide stability. Lascelles principles apply. If not you Rishi then someone else…


    Does a new leader go long?

    They have 2 choices:

    - go early: we realise we were heading in the wrong direction, new sheriff in town, clear vision for the future - give me time to implement it.
    - Go long: six month to get their feet under the table, become stale, lose the honeymoon effect and prove that they don’t have any ideas

    Plus if you go early there is a chance that you can stay on after the defeat. (I did better that we would otherwise have done but Rishi was such a disaster there was no chance really)
    In ordinary times I would agree with you. Let’s be clear though - there will not be a honeymoon effect of replacing our 2nd replacement PM with a 3rd replacement. Likely the opposite. If PM Rehman Chisti wants to win people over he will need time to do lots of social media reels shot on his iPhone and to bed in that he is doing things very differently.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    ydoethur said:

    If Sunak thinks Hall can win London, we are left with two options:

    1) He is rigging the election on a scale that would make Vladimir Putin blink.

    2) He is smoking weed.

    Given that even rigging the election by stuffing every ballot box with 50,000 votes for Hall would not be enough, I’m thinking (1) is unlikely.

    Rishi is shit at politics. He gets angry at PMQs and media questions because he genuinely thinks everything is great and that it’s obvious how awful Starmer is and why aren’t people getting it?

    I don’t think it’s weed. He is simply too rich and successful to be wrong. So everyone else must be wrong. Of course Hall will defeat Khan - he’s awful…
    His misplaced confidence and gilded path to the top despite his now-apparent unsuitability ought to be a parable against the dangers of private education.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982

    there will not be a honeymoon effect of replacing our 2nd replacement PM with a 3rd replacement.

    There will be a honeymoon period replacing Richi with anybody else.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906

    Heathener said:

    Anecdata that might be of some small comfort to Number 10: I've not picked up any hostility to Rishi personally or even as Prime Minister.

    Well I certainly have, and not just from my tory-voting blue wall friend either.

    Lots of people I know think he’s godawful and useless. My LibDem leaning, but sometime tory voting, brother can’t stand Sunak especially his parroting nonsense and bizarre fixation with sending people off to Rwanda. He think Sunak’s gone potty.

    The polls back me up on this. Sunak is immensely unpopular.
    Thinking the Prime Minister is useless does not necessarily mean people are hostile to him; they might be indifferent. If you are right then replacing the leader will improve the party's prospects. If I'm right, it will be futile.
    Replacing the leader will be futile. The problem is the Conservative *brand*, not *just* Sunak. A good leader, given time, could fix the brand (*). But Sunak is not a good leader; the party is not in the mood to be led, and there is no time.

    (*) As Hague and IDS did not, but Howard and Cameron did.
    This is exactly it. Nobody know what they stand for or what you could get if voting for them. It spans big state one nation blairism, blood and soil ethnonationalism, or radical libertarianism. It is freaking bonkers the range of possible outcomes you could get. And, of course, because they contain such radical ideological divergence, their majority is utterly useless.... they cannot enact anything. I am astounded that 1/5 of the population is willing to vote for this dumpster fire. Surely it can only be due to unthinking habitation over many decades that keeps even these voters locked in 🤷
    On the other hand, we have little idea what Starmer will do with his stonking majority. There seem to be lots of "don't frighten the horses!" small change rhetoric, but there's a good chance Starmer will be much braver than Blair was when faced with a large majority.

    What is 'Starmerism'?
    Didn't you read the leading telegraph article today. Reeves is giving the Maise Lecture today.
    Rishi managed to achieve one out of two...

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/mar/18/treasury-growth-tax-spending-rachel-reeves-labour-election
    ..The annual Mais lecture has become a set-piece event for economic policymakers to set out their worldview. In 2022, Rishi Sunak, then the chancellor, said he wanted to cut taxes “sustainably” and downgrade the role played by the state as an engine of growth...
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    sbjme19 said:

    It'd be a miracle if Susan Hall won in London (has anyone seen or heard an interview with her, I don't mean for rarity but for how it actually went?) but there are a few women on the Tory back benches who were actually elected on the strength of the red wall/brexit who are on a par with her. Compared to them, Rishi seems like a genius.

    I’m seeing lots of YouTube videos for her campaign in recent days. The usual one is going on about ULEZ.

    sbjme19 said:

    It'd be a miracle if Susan Hall won in London (has anyone seen or heard an interview with her, I don't mean for rarity but for how it actually went?) but there are a few women on the Tory back benches who were actually elected on the strength of the red wall/brexit who are on a par with her. Compared to them, Rishi seems like a genius.

    I’m seeing lots of YouTube videos for her campaign in recent days. The usual one is going on about ULEZ.
    Good morning everyone; brighter and indeed spring like today.

    As someone who lives outside London, and rarely drives into it, and if he does uses a three-year-old car, what is the problem with ULEZ?
    Surely reducing emissions is a good thing?
    Morning to you too; yesterday was lovely and bright. Spring’s eventual appearance is always a boost to mood and spirit.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    Scott_xP said:

    there will not be a honeymoon effect of replacing our 2nd replacement PM with a 3rd replacement.

    There will be a honeymoon period replacing Richi with anybody else.
    Give over. People want an election. They do not want another Tory contest and then the next wazzock coming out to patronise people by talking about a new government.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    Scott_xP said:

    there will not be a honeymoon effect of replacing our 2nd replacement PM with a 3rd replacement.

    There will be a honeymoon period replacing Richi with anybody else.
    If he's replaced by Braverman or Rees-Mogg? Or Truss? I mean, really...
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,866
    Rishi's mistake (amongst many) the other day was allowing the date by which to call a 2nd May poll to go by. Until then talk of plotters had to be kept quiet as a 2nd May election would not be enough time to replace Sunak.

    But now, with that ruled out, most plotters (also loons) have concluded that October is the next likely date, and that gives them time to oust Sunak, replace him with Mordaunt and then storm to a 649 seat majority at the October election.

    Sunak should've just gone with a May election.
  • Options
    Twickbait_55Twickbait_55 Posts: 120

    ydoethur said:

    If Sunak thinks Hall can win London, we are left with two options:

    1) He is rigging the election on a scale that would make Vladimir Putin blink.

    2) He is smoking weed.

    Given that even rigging the election by stuffing every ballot box with 50,000 votes for Hall would not be enough, I’m thinking (1) is unlikely.

    Rishi is shit at politics. He gets angry at PMQs and media questions because he genuinely thinks everything is great and that it’s obvious how awful Starmer is and why aren’t people getting it?

    I don’t think it’s weed. He is simply too rich and successful to be wrong. So everyone else must be wrong. Of course Hall will defeat Khan - he’s awful…
    He's failing, he's never failed before, he doesn't know how to process that.

    Has Kemi ever failed before? She shows a similar brittleness when questioned.

    But that's not the underlying problem. The real issue is the song, not the lead singer.
    There no song, certainly a lyric less instrumental if there is even a vague melody - it's more of an experimental and tunelessly played funeral dirge.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    Ghedebrav said:

    I think Susan Hall will lose but might do a little better than her odds suggest. Am not a London-dweller these days, but ULEZ (which was a Conservative policy?) does seem to still motivate a great deal of anti-Khan feeling in the blue ‘burbs.

    It’s not a dynamic or appealing contest though. Hopefully both parties are giving proper thought to their next candidate.

    To be anti-ULEZ now it’s been implemented, you have to:

    - Not believe the stats on the impact on air quality, or not care
    - Drive, and enjoy cars and driving
    - Not enjoy cars and driving enough to have a petrol car less than 20 years old or a diesel less than 8 years old
    - if you were affected, still not changed car since ULEZ extension came in

    That’s a pretty small voter demographic
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    ...

    Have to credit Rishi, HYUFD and the rest of the party - quality entertainment. If plan A is Hall beats Khan then we know that Team Rishi are truly mad.

    After the kicking at the locals there will undoubtedly now be a putsch. If it succeeds then the new PM will want time, a change of direction, a new budget etc - they go long.

    If it fails? Sunak will want the autumn statement and more time for his mad bribe to resonate. That rules out October. The “triumphantly announce an election at conference” scenario touted by some is as mad as Hall beating Khan. Go before that you say - bring parliament back at the start of September for an “autumn statement” then go immediately for an election this not allowing the bribe time to work and costing the party £lots from a lost conference? Bonkers.

    If Sunak survives, or if they oust him, they must go long. At least November. But the most likely scenario surely now is complete collapse. Likely a massive row which prompts someone to push a confidence motion which the government narrowly wins which only acts to deepen the crisis.

    Final point. What if Rishi goes to the palace to be told he can’t have the election now because of the palace crisis? The king is gravely ill / the Wills & Kate divorce row etc means they need to provide stability. Lascelles principles apply. If not you Rishi then someone else…


    Does a new leader go long?

    They have 2 choices:

    - go early: we realise we were heading in the wrong direction, new sheriff in town, clear vision for the future - give me time to implement it.
    - Go long: six month to get their feet under the table, become stale, lose the honeymoon effect and prove that they don’t have any ideas

    Plus if you go early there is a chance that you can stay on after the defeat. (I did better that we would otherwise have done but Rishi was such a disaster there was no chance really)
    In ordinary times I would agree with you. Let’s be clear though - there will not be a honeymoon effect of replacing our 2nd replacement PM with a 3rd replacement. Likely the opposite. If PM Rehman Chisti wants to win people over he will need time to do lots of social media reels shot on his iPhone and to bed in that he is doing things very differently.
    Depends who it is. The field has opened up since Yesterday with Penny, Tugs, Kemi and Honest Bob Jenrick all in the frame.

    If it's Jenrick, won't he go full on nasty party MEGA (Make England Great Again)? Hanging Lucy Letby, flogging Palestinian protestors and strafing the small boats. Shooting Tice's fox in the process and retaining the Red Wall.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    ydoethur said:

    If Sunak thinks Hall can win London, we are left with two options:

    1) He is rigging the election on a scale that would make Vladimir Putin blink.

    2) He is smoking weed.

    Given that even rigging the election by stuffing every ballot box with 50,000 votes for Hall would not be enough, I’m thinking (1) is unlikely.

    So what do you think of the

    Rishi Sunak = Hitler

    Susan Hall = Felix Steiner

    Sir Keir Starmer = Josef Stalin

    analogy?

    I thought it was subtle and nuanced.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410

    Scott_xP said:

    there will not be a honeymoon effect of replacing our 2nd replacement PM with a 3rd replacement.

    There will be a honeymoon period replacing Richi with anybody else.
    Give over. People want an election. They do not want another Tory contest and then the next wazzock coming out to patronise people by talking about a new government.
    Worse, an “election” in which we don’t get to vote but a shrinking cabal of members do, really rubs everyone’s noses in it.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,331

    Heathener said:

    Anecdata that might be of some small comfort to Number 10: I've not picked up any hostility to Rishi personally or even as Prime Minister.

    Well I certainly have, and not just from my tory-voting blue wall friend either.

    Lots of people I know think he’s godawful and useless. My LibDem leaning, but sometime tory voting, brother can’t stand Sunak especially his parroting nonsense and bizarre fixation with sending people off to Rwanda. He think Sunak’s gone potty.

    The polls back me up on this. Sunak is immensely unpopular.
    Thinking the Prime Minister is useless does not necessarily mean people are hostile to him; they might be indifferent. If you are right then replacing the leader will improve the party's prospects. If I'm right, it will be futile.
    Replacing the leader will be futile. The problem is the Conservative *brand*, not *just* Sunak. A good leader, given time, could fix the brand (*). But Sunak is not a good leader; the party is not in the mood to be led, and there is no time.

    (*) As Hague and IDS did not, but Howard and Cameron did.
    This is exactly it. Nobody know what they stand for or what you could get if voting for them. It spans big state one nation blairism, blood and soil ethnonationalism, or radical libertarianism. It is freaking bonkers the range of possible outcomes you could get. And, of course, because they contain such radical ideological divergence, their majority is utterly useless.... they cannot enact anything. I am astounded that 1/5 of the population is willing to vote for this dumpster fire. Surely it can only be due to unthinking habitation over many decades that keeps even these voters locked in 🤷
    On the other hand, we have little idea what Starmer will do with his stonking majority. There seem to be lots of "don't frighten the horses!" small change rhetoric, but there's a good chance Starmer will be much braver than Blair was when faced with a large majority.

    What is 'Starmerism'?
    Didn't you read the leading telegraph article today. Reeves is giving the Maise Lecture today.
    No, I didn't. It's paywalled, so I could only read the first couple of lines.

    But there's one thing I'd say: if she's really aiming for a decade of renewal, then it's a positive thing, as few politicians ever look beyond the next electoral cycle. Although I'd prefer two decades.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    there will not be a honeymoon effect of replacing our 2nd replacement PM with a 3rd replacement.

    There will be a honeymoon period replacing Richi with anybody else.
    If he's replaced by Braverman or Rees-Mogg? Or Truss? I mean, really...
    Sadly, yes, there are people who would vote Tory if they were leader who will not vote Tory while Richi is in post.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    If Sunak thinks Hall can win London, we are left with two options:

    1) He is rigging the election on a scale that would make Vladimir Putin blink.

    2) He is smoking weed.

    Given that even rigging the election by stuffing every ballot box with 50,000 votes for Hall would not be enough, I’m thinking (1) is unlikely.

    Rishi is shit at politics. He gets angry at PMQs and media questions because he genuinely thinks everything is great and that it’s obvious how awful Starmer is and why aren’t people getting it?

    I don’t think it’s weed. He is simply too rich and successful to be wrong. So everyone else must be wrong. Of course Hall will defeat Khan - he’s awful…
    His misplaced confidence and gilded path to the top despite his now-apparent unsuitability ought to be a parable against the dangers of private education.
    Johnson and Sunak are great advertising material for Eton and Winchester though.

    'We got these thick as pigshit people to Oxford, successful and profitable careers and the top of politics. Imagine what we could do for YOUR child!'
  • Options
    Twickbait_55Twickbait_55 Posts: 120

    sbjme19 said:

    It'd be a miracle if Susan Hall won in London (has anyone seen or heard an interview with her, I don't mean for rarity but for how it actually went?) but there are a few women on the Tory back benches who were actually elected on the strength of the red wall/brexit who are on a par with her. Compared to them, Rishi seems like a genius.

    I’m seeing lots of YouTube videos for her campaign in recent days. The usual one is going on about ULEZ.

    sbjme19 said:

    It'd be a miracle if Susan Hall won in London (has anyone seen or heard an interview with her, I don't mean for rarity but for how it actually went?) but there are a few women on the Tory back benches who were actually elected on the strength of the red wall/brexit who are on a par with her. Compared to them, Rishi seems like a genius.

    I’m seeing lots of YouTube videos for her campaign in recent days. The usual one is going on about ULEZ.
    Good morning everyone; brighter and indeed spring like today.

    As someone who lives outside London, and rarely drives into it, and if he does uses a three-year-old car, what is the problem with ULEZ?
    Surely reducing emissions is a good thing?
    It is, but this sort of anti-woke dross is thought to appeal to a certain type of libertarian ukip/Brexit party/Reform voter and apparently saved Tory skins. It won't.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033

    ydoethur said:

    If Sunak thinks Hall can win London, we are left with two options:

    1) He is rigging the election on a scale that would make Vladimir Putin blink.

    2) He is smoking weed.

    Given that even rigging the election by stuffing every ballot box with 50,000 votes for Hall would not be enough, I’m thinking (1) is unlikely.

    So what do you think of the

    Rishi Sunak = Hitler

    Susan Hall = Felix Steiner

    Sir Keir Starmer = Josef Stalin

    analogy?

    I thought it was subtle and nuanced.
    Didn't work. Starmer and Sunak are clean shaven.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982

    ydoethur said:

    If Sunak thinks Hall can win London, we are left with two options:

    1) He is rigging the election on a scale that would make Vladimir Putin blink.

    2) He is smoking weed.

    Given that even rigging the election by stuffing every ballot box with 50,000 votes for Hall would not be enough, I’m thinking (1) is unlikely.

    Rishi is shit at politics. He gets angry at PMQs and media questions because he genuinely thinks everything is great and that it’s obvious how awful Starmer is and why aren’t people getting it?

    I don’t think it’s weed. He is simply too rich and successful to be wrong. So everyone else must be wrong. Of course Hall will defeat Khan - he’s awful…
    He's failing, he's never failed before, he doesn't know how to process that.

    Has Kemi ever failed before? She shows a similar brittleness when questioned.

    But that's not the underlying problem. The real issue is the song, not the lead singer.
    There no song, certainly a lyric less instrumental if there is even a vague melody - it's more of an experimental and tunelessly played funeral dirge.
    A bit like Radiohead...
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    edited March 19

    Rishi's mistake (amongst many) the other day was allowing the date by which to call a 2nd May poll to go by. Until then talk of plotters had to be kept quiet as a 2nd May election would not be enough time to replace Sunak.

    But now, with that ruled out, most plotters (also loons) have concluded that October is the next likely date, and that gives them time to oust Sunak, replace him with Mordaunt and then storm to a 649 seat majority at the October election.

    Sunak should've just gone with a May election.

    After the Mordaunt landslide, will the letters go in to Brady's successor and a champion of patriotism and common sense can replace her once the dust settles?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906
    One for @Leon

    Study suggests that intermittent fasting doubles the long term risk of stroke and cardiovascular events.
    https://www.heart.org/en/news/2024/03/18/time-restricted-eating-may-raise-cardiovascular-death-risk-in-the-long-term

    (Needs confirmation, though.)
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Jonathan Gullis, the Tory MP for Stoke-on-Trent North, had hit breaking point. At the weekend Gullis, who is not usually seen as a natural ally of Rishi Sunak, issued an impassioned plea to colleagues to stop plotting to remove him from office.

    “Enough of briefings to destabilise things or undermine the agenda/PM,” he said in a 500-word missive to Tory MPs on their WhatsApp group. “I’m f***ing bored of it, I’m working my arse off … without having to go back and forth on doorsteps about the psychodrama.

    “I’m really tired, I’m working hard to drag myself out of bed at the moment to enter the fight as it’s demoralising when we argue amongst ourselves. I’m going to finish the final round of this contest on my feet, and I’ll let the judges (voters) decide, but Christ are we making it harder than it needs to be.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-leader-tory-party-prime-minister-uk-general-election-rlnwgm98r
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906

    ydoethur said:

    If Sunak thinks Hall can win London, we are left with two options:

    1) He is rigging the election on a scale that would make Vladimir Putin blink.

    2) He is smoking weed.

    Given that even rigging the election by stuffing every ballot box with 50,000 votes for Hall would not be enough, I’m thinking (1) is unlikely.

    So what do you think of the

    Rishi Sunak = Hitler

    Susan Hall = Felix Steiner

    Sir Keir Starmer = Josef Stalin

    analogy?

    I thought it was subtle and nuanced.
    Most underpowered WWII drama ever.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906

    Heathener said:

    Anecdata that might be of some small comfort to Number 10: I've not picked up any hostility to Rishi personally or even as Prime Minister.

    Well I certainly have, and not just from my tory-voting blue wall friend either.

    Lots of people I know think he’s godawful and useless. My LibDem leaning, but sometime tory voting, brother can’t stand Sunak especially his parroting nonsense and bizarre fixation with sending people off to Rwanda. He think Sunak’s gone potty.

    The polls back me up on this. Sunak is immensely unpopular.
    Thinking the Prime Minister is useless does not necessarily mean people are hostile to him; they might be indifferent. If you are right then replacing the leader will improve the party's prospects. If I'm right, it will be futile.
    Replacing the leader will be futile. The problem is the Conservative *brand*, not *just* Sunak. A good leader, given time, could fix the brand (*). But Sunak is not a good leader; the party is not in the mood to be led, and there is no time.

    (*) As Hague and IDS did not, but Howard and Cameron did.
    This is exactly it. Nobody know what they stand for or what you could get if voting for them. It spans big state one nation blairism, blood and soil ethnonationalism, or radical libertarianism. It is freaking bonkers the range of possible outcomes you could get. And, of course, because they contain such radical ideological divergence, their majority is utterly useless.... they cannot enact anything. I am astounded that 1/5 of the population is willing to vote for this dumpster fire. Surely it can only be due to unthinking habitation over many decades that keeps even these voters locked in 🤷
    On the other hand, we have little idea what Starmer will do with his stonking majority. There seem to be lots of "don't frighten the horses!" small change rhetoric, but there's a good chance Starmer will be much braver than Blair was when faced with a large majority.

    What is 'Starmerism'?
    Didn't you read the leading telegraph article today. Reeves is giving the Maise Lecture today.
    No, I didn't. It's paywalled, so I could only read the first couple of lines.

    But there's one thing I'd say: if she's really aiming for a decade of renewal, then it's a positive thing, as few politicians ever look beyond the next electoral cycle. Although I'd prefer two decades.
    Reposting the Guardian link to the story.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/mar/18/treasury-growth-tax-spending-rachel-reeves-labour-election
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    If Sunak thinks Hall can win London, we are left with two options:

    1) He is rigging the election on a scale that would make Vladimir Putin blink.

    2) He is smoking weed.

    Given that even rigging the election by stuffing every ballot box with 50,000 votes for Hall would not be enough, I’m thinking (1) is unlikely.

    So what do you think of the

    Rishi Sunak = Hitler

    Susan Hall = Felix Steiner

    Sir Keir Starmer = Josef Stalin

    analogy?

    I thought it was subtle and nuanced.
    Didn't work. Starmer and Sunak are clean shaven.
    So my analogy is experiencing a bit of a Downfall?
  • Options
    Twickbait_55Twickbait_55 Posts: 120
    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    If Sunak thinks Hall can win London, we are left with two options:

    1) He is rigging the election on a scale that would make Vladimir Putin blink.

    2) He is smoking weed.

    Given that even rigging the election by stuffing every ballot box with 50,000 votes for Hall would not be enough, I’m thinking (1) is unlikely.

    Rishi is shit at politics. He gets angry at PMQs and media questions because he genuinely thinks everything is great and that it’s obvious how awful Starmer is and why aren’t people getting it?

    I don’t think it’s weed. He is simply too rich and successful to be wrong. So everyone else must be wrong. Of course Hall will defeat Khan - he’s awful…
    He's failing, he's never failed before, he doesn't know how to process that.

    Has Kemi ever failed before? She shows a similar brittleness when questioned.

    But that's not the underlying problem. The real issue is the song, not the lead singer.
    There no song, certainly a lyric less instrumental if there is even a vague melody - it's more of an experimental and tunelessly played funeral dirge.
    A bit like Radiohead...
    I was thinking more Dido or the tubby fellow who did a dreadful Bond song (the Radiohead rejected one was immensely better).
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Nigelb said:

    That is one of the funniest, and one of the saddest things I've heard in a while.

    Sunak allies aware that May 2 locals are a huge flashpoint, but they hope Susan Hall can get the PM out of jail by defeating Sadiq Khan against the odds in London

    That can't be the reason he ruled out a May election... can it ?

    The first draft of this piece concluded that Sunak's hope required and intervention from his friends and family because he was that deluded.
  • Options
    Twickbait_55Twickbait_55 Posts: 120
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    If Sunak thinks Hall can win London, we are left with two options:

    1) He is rigging the election on a scale that would make Vladimir Putin blink.

    2) He is smoking weed.

    Given that even rigging the election by stuffing every ballot box with 50,000 votes for Hall would not be enough, I’m thinking (1) is unlikely.

    So what do you think of the

    Rishi Sunak = Hitler

    Susan Hall = Felix Steiner

    Sir Keir Starmer = Josef Stalin

    analogy?

    I thought it was subtle and nuanced.
    Didn't work. Starmer and Sunak are clean shaven.
    And Hall has a beard!
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677

    sbjme19 said:

    It'd be a miracle if Susan Hall won in London (has anyone seen or heard an interview with her, I don't mean for rarity but for how it actually went?) but there are a few women on the Tory back benches who were actually elected on the strength of the red wall/brexit who are on a par with her. Compared to them, Rishi seems like a genius.

    I’m seeing lots of YouTube videos for her campaign in recent days. The usual one is going on about ULEZ.

    sbjme19 said:

    It'd be a miracle if Susan Hall won in London (has anyone seen or heard an interview with her, I don't mean for rarity but for how it actually went?) but there are a few women on the Tory back benches who were actually elected on the strength of the red wall/brexit who are on a par with her. Compared to them, Rishi seems like a genius.

    I’m seeing lots of YouTube videos for her campaign in recent days. The usual one is going on about ULEZ.
    Good morning everyone; brighter and indeed spring like today.

    As someone who lives outside London, and rarely drives into it, and if he does uses a three-year-old car, what is the problem with ULEZ?
    Surely reducing emissions is a good thing?
    Last summer, there was genuine anxiety that everyone would have to get an electric car- there wasn't recognition that relatively few cars would be affected. There was also a feeling that public transport (although stonkingly good compared with the provinces) wasn't good enough. Personally, I disagree, but I can see that milages vary. There's also the observation that outer London/ inner Essex is the spiritual home of white van man, and many of them were affected.

    So yes, there was enough of a "it's a sledgehammer to crack a nut" case to be plausible, especially in the hands of people who like arguments and don't like Mayor Khan.

    But it's largely a dead issue now. There are people campaigning against ULEZ out here in "Essex, actually", doing demos and blocking cameras. But not many, and increasingly cranky.

    That London Conservatives have invested so much in the issue shows how poor their political instincts are.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399

    ydoethur said:

    If Sunak thinks Hall can win London, we are left with two options:

    1) He is rigging the election on a scale that would make Vladimir Putin blink.

    2) He is smoking weed.

    Given that even rigging the election by stuffing every ballot box with 50,000 votes for Hall would not be enough, I’m thinking (1) is unlikely.

    So what do you think of the

    Rishi Sunak = Hitler

    Susan Hall = Felix Steiner

    Sir Keir Starmer = Josef Stalin

    analogy?

    I thought it was subtle and nuanced.
    Which one is Fegelein?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    If Sunak thinks Hall can win London, we are left with two options:

    1) He is rigging the election on a scale that would make Vladimir Putin blink.

    2) He is smoking weed.

    Given that even rigging the election by stuffing every ballot box with 50,000 votes for Hall would not be enough, I’m thinking (1) is unlikely.

    Rishi is shit at politics. He gets angry at PMQs and media questions because he genuinely thinks everything is great and that it’s obvious how awful Starmer is and why aren’t people getting it?

    I don’t think it’s weed. He is simply too rich and successful to be wrong. So everyone else must be wrong. Of course Hall will defeat Khan - he’s awful…
    He's failing, he's never failed before, he doesn't know how to process that.

    Has Kemi ever failed before? She shows a similar brittleness when questioned.

    But that's not the underlying problem. The real issue is the song, not the lead singer.
    There no song, certainly a lyric less instrumental if there is even a vague melody - it's more of an experimental and tunelessly played funeral dirge.
    A bit like Radiohead...
    Still cannot get over the fact it is 31 years since Pablo Honey was released.

    If there ever was an album I bought for just one song that is it.
  • Options
    Twickbait_55Twickbait_55 Posts: 120

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    If Sunak thinks Hall can win London, we are left with two options:

    1) He is rigging the election on a scale that would make Vladimir Putin blink.

    2) He is smoking weed.

    Given that even rigging the election by stuffing every ballot box with 50,000 votes for Hall would not be enough, I’m thinking (1) is unlikely.

    Rishi is shit at politics. He gets angry at PMQs and media questions because he genuinely thinks everything is great and that it’s obvious how awful Starmer is and why aren’t people getting it?

    I don’t think it’s weed. He is simply too rich and successful to be wrong. So everyone else must be wrong. Of course Hall will defeat Khan - he’s awful…
    He's failing, he's never failed before, he doesn't know how to process that.

    Has Kemi ever failed before? She shows a similar brittleness when questioned.

    But that's not the underlying problem. The real issue is the song, not the lead singer.
    There no song, certainly a lyric less instrumental if there is even a vague melody - it's more of an experimental and tunelessly played funeral dirge.
    A bit like Radiohead...
    Still cannot get over the fact it is 31 years since Pablo Honey was released.

    If there ever was an album I bought for just one song that is it.
    Saw them at Glastonbury back then touring that. Technically brilliant band for sure
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061

    Rishi's mistake (amongst many) the other day was allowing the date by which to call a 2nd May poll to go by. Until then talk of plotters had to be kept quiet as a 2nd May election would not be enough time to replace Sunak.

    But now, with that ruled out, most plotters (also loons) have concluded that October is the next likely date, and that gives them time to oust Sunak, replace him with Mordaunt and then storm to a 649 seat majority at the October election.

    Sunak should've just gone with a May election.

    Why? What is in it for Rishi (let alone the government) if the choice is between leaving office in May and remaining in power for at least another few months? And that is even without the prospect of Hall being elected Mayor (see thread header).
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,489
    edited March 19
    The Tories are shot and no one is listening to them. They need something to change the subject that the public might notice. A new leader will turn them into a joke. For Sunak I can only think of only two possibilities that are within his control.

    A general election or an offer to revisit of the 2016 EU Referendum
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,617
    It will be interesting to see what Reeves says today.

    Some actual red meat or just continued waffle ?
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677
    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    there will not be a honeymoon effect of replacing our 2nd replacement PM with a 3rd replacement.

    There will be a honeymoon period replacing Richi with anybody else.
    Give over. People want an election. They do not want another Tory contest and then the next wazzock coming out to patronise people by talking about a new government.
    Worse, an “election” in which we don’t get to vote but a shrinking cabal of members do, really rubs everyone’s noses in it.
    There's not really time for it to go to the membership, is there? Technically, there is, but there isn't really.

    Besides, who knows who they would choose. It would have to be another MP stitch up.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033

    ydoethur said:

    If Sunak thinks Hall can win London, we are left with two options:

    1) He is rigging the election on a scale that would make Vladimir Putin blink.

    2) He is smoking weed.

    Given that even rigging the election by stuffing every ballot box with 50,000 votes for Hall would not be enough, I’m thinking (1) is unlikely.

    So what do you think of the

    Rishi Sunak = Hitler

    Susan Hall = Felix Steiner

    Sir Keir Starmer = Josef Stalin

    analogy?

    I thought it was subtle and nuanced.
    Which one is Fegelein?
    Suella Braverman.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    sbjme19 said:

    It'd be a miracle if Susan Hall won in London (has anyone seen or heard an interview with her, I don't mean for rarity but for how it actually went?) but there are a few women on the Tory back benches who were actually elected on the strength of the red wall/brexit who are on a par with her. Compared to them, Rishi seems like a genius.

    I’m seeing lots of YouTube videos for her campaign in recent days. The usual one is going on about ULEZ.

    sbjme19 said:

    It'd be a miracle if Susan Hall won in London (has anyone seen or heard an interview with her, I don't mean for rarity but for how it actually went?) but there are a few women on the Tory back benches who were actually elected on the strength of the red wall/brexit who are on a par with her. Compared to them, Rishi seems like a genius.

    I’m seeing lots of YouTube videos for her campaign in recent days. The usual one is going on about ULEZ.
    Good morning everyone; brighter and indeed spring like today.

    As someone who lives outside London, and rarely drives into it, and if he does uses a three-year-old car, what is the problem with ULEZ?
    Surely reducing emissions is a good thing?
    Last summer, there was genuine anxiety that everyone would have to get an electric car- there wasn't recognition that relatively few cars would be affected. There was also a feeling that public transport (although stonkingly good compared with the provinces) wasn't good enough. Personally, I disagree, but I can see that milages vary. There's also the observation that outer London/ inner Essex is the spiritual home of white van man, and many of them were affected.

    So yes, there was enough of a "it's a sledgehammer to crack a nut" case to be plausible, especially in the hands of people who like arguments and don't like Mayor Khan.

    But it's largely a dead issue now. There are people campaigning against ULEZ out here in "Essex, actually", doing demos and blocking cameras. But not many, and increasingly cranky.

    That London Conservatives have invested so much in the issue shows how poor their political instincts are.
    Still a shame that Manchester didn’t vote for a congestion charge. The city would feel quite different (for the better) by now.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,617
    Roger said:

    The Tories are shot and no one is listening to them. They need something to change the subject that the public might notice. A new leader will turn them into a joke. For Sunak I can only think of only two possibilities that are within his control.

    A general election or an offer to revisit of the 2016 EU Referendum

    Well no, declare war on France seems a much better option, popular, adventurous and with decent patisseries.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,403

    Heathener said:

    Anecdata that might be of some small comfort to Number 10: I've not picked up any hostility to Rishi personally or even as Prime Minister.

    Well I certainly have, and not just from my tory-voting blue wall friend either.

    Lots of people I know think he’s godawful and useless. My LibDem leaning, but sometime tory voting, brother can’t stand Sunak especially his parroting nonsense and bizarre fixation with sending people off to Rwanda. He think Sunak’s gone potty.

    The polls back me up on this. Sunak is immensely unpopular.
    Thinking the Prime Minister is useless does not necessarily mean people are hostile to him; they might be indifferent. If you are right then replacing the leader will improve the party's prospects. If I'm right, it will be futile.
    Replacing the leader will be futile. The problem is the Conservative *brand*, not *just* Sunak. A good leader, given time, could fix the brand (*). But Sunak is not a good leader; the party is not in the mood to be led, and there is no time.

    (*) As Hague and IDS did not, but Howard and Cameron did.
    This is exactly it. Nobody know what they stand for or what you could get if voting for them. It spans big state one nation blairism, blood and soil ethnonationalism, or radical libertarianism. It is freaking bonkers the range of possible outcomes you could get. And, of course, because they contain such radical ideological divergence, their majority is utterly useless.... they cannot enact anything. I am astounded that 1/5 of the population is willing to vote for this dumpster fire. Surely it can only be due to unthinking habitation over many decades that keeps even these voters locked in 🤷
    On the other hand, we have little idea what Starmer will do with his stonking majority. There seem to be lots of "don't frighten the horses!" small change rhetoric, but there's a good chance Starmer will be much braver than Blair was when faced with a large majority.

    What is 'Starmerism'?
    Didn't you read the leading telegraph article today. Reeves is giving the Maise Lecture today.

    No, I didn't. It's paywalled, so I could only read the first couple of lines.

    But there's one thing I'd say: if she's really aiming for a decade of renewal, then it's a positive thing, as few politicians ever look beyond the next electoral cycle. Although I'd prefer two decades.
    You believe it’s more than a nice phrase?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,735
    edited March 19
    TimS said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    I think Susan Hall will lose but might do a little better than her odds suggest. Am not a London-dweller these days, but ULEZ (which was a Conservative policy?) does seem to still motivate a great deal of anti-Khan feeling in the blue ‘burbs.

    It’s not a dynamic or appealing contest though. Hopefully both parties are giving proper thought to their next candidate.

    To be anti-ULEZ now it’s been implemented, you have to:

    - Not believe the stats on the impact on air quality, or not care
    - Drive, and enjoy cars and driving
    - Not enjoy cars and driving enough to have a petrol car less than 20 years old or a diesel less than 8 years old
    - if you were affected, still not changed car since ULEZ extension came in

    That’s a pretty small voter demographic
    The people most affected are small business tradesmen in old-ish (5yo+) vans, followed by people working low-paid shift work such as hospitality.
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,532
    Is it too late for Rishi to call a 2 May election?

    Timeline:

    Tomorrow - inflation falls from 4.0 to 3.9%

    Thursday - Rishi declares an inflation 'triumph' and calls the election

    ?? 😈
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410

    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    there will not be a honeymoon effect of replacing our 2nd replacement PM with a 3rd replacement.

    There will be a honeymoon period replacing Richi with anybody else.
    Give over. People want an election. They do not want another Tory contest and then the next wazzock coming out to patronise people by talking about a new government.
    Worse, an “election” in which we don’t get to vote but a shrinking cabal of members do, really rubs everyone’s noses in it.
    There's not really time for it to go to the membership, is there? Technically, there is, but there isn't really.

    Besides, who knows who they would choose. It would have to be another MP stitch up.
    Which won’t work because evidently too many MPs dislike Mordaunt, for some reason.

    We’re entering the “I’m going to go for the run anyway” stage of the chaotic runout scenario, with Rishi still rooted to the crease.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,331

    Heathener said:

    Anecdata that might be of some small comfort to Number 10: I've not picked up any hostility to Rishi personally or even as Prime Minister.

    Well I certainly have, and not just from my tory-voting blue wall friend either.

    Lots of people I know think he’s godawful and useless. My LibDem leaning, but sometime tory voting, brother can’t stand Sunak especially his parroting nonsense and bizarre fixation with sending people off to Rwanda. He think Sunak’s gone potty.

    The polls back me up on this. Sunak is immensely unpopular.
    Thinking the Prime Minister is useless does not necessarily mean people are hostile to him; they might be indifferent. If you are right then replacing the leader will improve the party's prospects. If I'm right, it will be futile.
    Replacing the leader will be futile. The problem is the Conservative *brand*, not *just* Sunak. A good leader, given time, could fix the brand (*). But Sunak is not a good leader; the party is not in the mood to be led, and there is no time.

    (*) As Hague and IDS did not, but Howard and Cameron did.
    This is exactly it. Nobody know what they stand for or what you could get if voting for them. It spans big state one nation blairism, blood and soil ethnonationalism, or radical libertarianism. It is freaking bonkers the range of possible outcomes you could get. And, of course, because they contain such radical ideological divergence, their majority is utterly useless.... they cannot enact anything. I am astounded that 1/5 of the population is willing to vote for this dumpster fire. Surely it can only be due to unthinking habitation over many decades that keeps even these voters locked in 🤷
    On the other hand, we have little idea what Starmer will do with his stonking majority. There seem to be lots of "don't frighten the horses!" small change rhetoric, but there's a good chance Starmer will be much braver than Blair was when faced with a large majority.

    What is 'Starmerism'?
    Didn't you read the leading telegraph article today. Reeves is giving the Maise Lecture today.

    No, I didn't. It's paywalled, so I could only read the first couple of lines.

    But there's one thing I'd say: if she's really aiming for a decade of renewal, then it's a positive thing, as few politicians ever look beyond the next electoral cycle. Although I'd prefer two decades.
    You believe it’s more than a nice phrase?
    If Labour get the stonking majority I think they'll get, then they'll have enough room for brave, long-term thinking and planning.

    Things Blair lacked.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    Roger said:

    The Tories are shot and no one is listening to them. They need something to change the subject that the public might notice. A new leader will turn them into a joke. For Sunak I can only think of only two possibilities that are within his control.

    A general election or an offer to revisit of the 2016 EU Referendum

    Sadly he isn’t going to impose a tax on all foreigners living abroad. I can see his final lever to pull being Rwanda. It’s the only thing people care about, and after years of woke lefty lawyer delays he’s going to find his bill passed into law and immediately smash into the next problem.

    Whether it is that the only contractor offering to fly inmates to Rwanda is Hester Airlines, or Rwanda turning the second plane load away, or an acceleration of small boats because even they can see Rwanda is a dead end - whatever, this will come to a head.

    A STOP THE BOATS election. That is how Rishi not only stops the red army, but pushes them back. This was his plan all along.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    sbjme19 said:

    It'd be a miracle if Susan Hall won in London (has anyone seen or heard an interview with her, I don't mean for rarity but for how it actually went?) but there are a few women on the Tory back benches who were actually elected on the strength of the red wall/brexit who are on a par with her. Compared to them, Rishi seems like a genius.

    I’m seeing lots of YouTube videos for her campaign in recent days. The usual one is going on about ULEZ.

    sbjme19 said:

    It'd be a miracle if Susan Hall won in London (has anyone seen or heard an interview with her, I don't mean for rarity but for how it actually went?) but there are a few women on the Tory back benches who were actually elected on the strength of the red wall/brexit who are on a par with her. Compared to them, Rishi seems like a genius.

    I’m seeing lots of YouTube videos for her campaign in recent days. The usual one is going on about ULEZ.
    Good morning everyone; brighter and indeed spring like today.

    As someone who lives outside London, and rarely drives into it, and if he does uses a three-year-old car, what is the problem with ULEZ?
    Surely reducing emissions is a good thing?
    Last summer, there was genuine anxiety that everyone would have to get an electric car- there wasn't recognition that relatively few cars would be affected. There was also a feeling that public transport (although stonkingly good compared with the provinces) wasn't good enough. Personally, I disagree, but I can see that milages vary. There's also the observation that outer London/ inner Essex is the spiritual home of white van man, and many of them were affected.

    So yes, there was enough of a "it's a sledgehammer to crack a nut" case to be plausible, especially in the hands of people who like arguments and don't like Mayor Khan.

    But it's largely a dead issue now. There are people campaigning against ULEZ out here in "Essex, actually", doing demos and blocking cameras. But not many, and increasingly cranky.

    That London Conservatives have invested so much in the issue shows how poor their political instincts are.
    It seems to me that the Tories are over interpreting their only byelection win of recent times. One incidentally was a swing against the Tories albeit not enough to unseat.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    edited March 19
    Sandpit said:

    TimS said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    I think Susan Hall will lose but might do a little better than her odds suggest. Am not a London-dweller these days, but ULEZ (which was a Conservative policy?) does seem to still motivate a great deal of anti-Khan feeling in the blue ‘burbs.

    It’s not a dynamic or appealing contest though. Hopefully both parties are giving proper thought to their next candidate.

    To be anti-ULEZ now it’s been implemented, you have to:

    - Not believe the stats on the impact on air quality, or not care
    - Drive, and enjoy cars and driving
    - Not enjoy cars and driving enough to have a petrol car less than 20 years old or a diesel less than 8 years old
    - if you were affected, still not changed car since ULEZ extension came in

    That’s a pretty small voter demographic
    The people most affected are small business tradesmen in old-ish (5yo+) vans.
    There aren’t that many of them either, anymore. Our window cleaner is an example - hardly a big businessman, cleans the windows on our street every month or so for a very reasonable fee, changed his van when the original ULEZ came in here. No sweat.

    (And has noted how much less dirty the windows facing our local rat run have been since ULEZ).
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    If Sunak thinks Hall can win London, we are left with two options:

    1) He is rigging the election on a scale that would make Vladimir Putin blink.

    2) He is smoking weed.

    Given that even rigging the election by stuffing every ballot box with 50,000 votes for Hall would not be enough, I’m thinking (1) is unlikely.

    Rishi is shit at politics. He gets angry at PMQs and media questions because he genuinely thinks everything is great and that it’s obvious how awful Starmer is and why aren’t people getting it?

    I don’t think it’s weed. He is simply too rich and successful to be wrong. So everyone else must be wrong. Of course Hall will defeat Khan - he’s awful…
    He's failing, he's never failed before, he doesn't know how to process that.

    Has Kemi ever failed before? She shows a similar brittleness when questioned.

    But that's not the underlying problem. The real issue is the song, not the lead singer.
    There no song, certainly a lyric less instrumental if there is even a vague melody - it's more of an experimental and tunelessly played funeral dirge.
    A bit like Radiohead...
    Still cannot get over the fact it is 31 years since Pablo Honey was released.

    If there ever was an album I bought for just one song that is it.
    Saw them at Glastonbury back then touring that. Technically brilliant band for sure
    I saw them at Doncaster Dome when they were touring OK Computer. Technically great for sure, but not a thrilling live experience.

    I don’t they ever topped The Bends.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    @DachshundColin

    For this week's task you will be running a press office. Nexus, you will be working for Kensington Palace. Supream, you will be working for the Conservative party.


  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    ydoethur said:

    If Sunak thinks Hall can win London, we are left with two options:

    1) He is rigging the election on a scale that would make Vladimir Putin blink.

    2) He is smoking weed.

    Given that even rigging the election by stuffing every ballot box with 50,000 votes for Hall would not be enough, I’m thinking (1) is unlikely.

    So what do you think of the

    Rishi Sunak = Hitler

    Susan Hall = Felix Steiner

    Sir Keir Starmer = Josef Stalin

    analogy?

    I thought it was subtle and nuanced.
    Starmer is more like Zhukov, with his bulldozer like relentlessness and organisational ability.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    If Sunak thinks Hall can win London, we are left with two options:

    1) He is rigging the election on a scale that would make Vladimir Putin blink.

    2) He is smoking weed.

    Given that even rigging the election by stuffing every ballot box with 50,000 votes for Hall would not be enough, I’m thinking (1) is unlikely.

    So what do you think of the

    Rishi Sunak = Hitler

    Susan Hall = Felix Steiner

    Sir Keir Starmer = Josef Stalin

    analogy?

    I thought it was subtle and nuanced.
    Didn't work. Starmer and Sunak are clean shaven.
    So my analogy is experiencing a bit of a Downfall?
    Trust you to SA a subtle pun.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    TimS said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    I think Susan Hall will lose but might do a little better than her odds suggest. Am not a London-dweller these days, but ULEZ (which was a Conservative policy?) does seem to still motivate a great deal of anti-Khan feeling in the blue ‘burbs.

    It’s not a dynamic or appealing contest though. Hopefully both parties are giving proper thought to their next candidate.

    To be anti-ULEZ now it’s been implemented, you have to:

    - Not believe the stats on the impact on air quality, or not care
    - Drive, and enjoy cars and driving
    - Not enjoy cars and driving enough to have a petrol car less than 20 years old or a diesel less than 8 years old
    - if you were affected, still not changed car since ULEZ extension came in

    That’s a pretty small voter demographic
    One of the fears of the ULEZ was that the criteria would be tightened over time. So people with a compliant car now might worry that it could suddenly be non-compliant tomorrow.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677
    Scott_xP said:

    @DachshundColin

    For this week's task you will be running a press office. Nexus, you will be working for Kensington Palace. Supream, you will be working for the Conservative party.


    It's a long time since I've watched The Apprentice (it used to be favourite comedy viewing for Mrs Romford and me), but has there ever been an episode where both sides were sent to Cafe Loser?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194

    TimS said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    I think Susan Hall will lose but might do a little better than her odds suggest. Am not a London-dweller these days, but ULEZ (which was a Conservative policy?) does seem to still motivate a great deal of anti-Khan feeling in the blue ‘burbs.

    It’s not a dynamic or appealing contest though. Hopefully both parties are giving proper thought to their next candidate.

    To be anti-ULEZ now it’s been implemented, you have to:

    - Not believe the stats on the impact on air quality, or not care
    - Drive, and enjoy cars and driving
    - Not enjoy cars and driving enough to have a petrol car less than 20 years old or a diesel less than 8 years old
    - if you were affected, still not changed car since ULEZ extension came in

    That’s a pretty small voter demographic
    One of the fears of the ULEZ was that the criteria would be tightened over time. So people with a compliant car now might worry that it could suddenly be non-compliant tomorrow.
    And it can play into a wider agenda of people being ‘stopped’ from doing things, whether it be the low traffic neighbourhood road blocks (which the Tories are also trying to make an issue of), not being able to buy gas boilers and petrol cars, etc.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,617

    TimS said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    I think Susan Hall will lose but might do a little better than her odds suggest. Am not a London-dweller these days, but ULEZ (which was a Conservative policy?) does seem to still motivate a great deal of anti-Khan feeling in the blue ‘burbs.

    It’s not a dynamic or appealing contest though. Hopefully both parties are giving proper thought to their next candidate.

    To be anti-ULEZ now it’s been implemented, you have to:

    - Not believe the stats on the impact on air quality, or not care
    - Drive, and enjoy cars and driving
    - Not enjoy cars and driving enough to have a petrol car less than 20 years old or a diesel less than 8 years old
    - if you were affected, still not changed car since ULEZ extension came in

    That’s a pretty small voter demographic
    One of the fears of the ULEZ was that the criteria would be tightened over time. So people with a compliant car now might worry that it could suddenly be non-compliant tomorrow.
    well isnt that inevitable ? Once a threshold has been crossed the costs only go one way.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,821
    Talking of London Mayoral candidates has this been mentioned:

    Former environment minister Zac Goldsmith has been banned from driving for a year after he was caught speeding seven times in 2023.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-68599661
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,735
    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    TimS said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    I think Susan Hall will lose but might do a little better than her odds suggest. Am not a London-dweller these days, but ULEZ (which was a Conservative policy?) does seem to still motivate a great deal of anti-Khan feeling in the blue ‘burbs.

    It’s not a dynamic or appealing contest though. Hopefully both parties are giving proper thought to their next candidate.

    To be anti-ULEZ now it’s been implemented, you have to:

    - Not believe the stats on the impact on air quality, or not care
    - Drive, and enjoy cars and driving
    - Not enjoy cars and driving enough to have a petrol car less than 20 years old or a diesel less than 8 years old
    - if you were affected, still not changed car since ULEZ extension came in

    That’s a pretty small voter demographic
    The people most affected are small business tradesmen in old-ish (5yo+) vans.
    There aren’t that many of them either, anymore. Our window cleaner is an example - hardly a big businessman, cleans the windows on our street every month or so for a very reasonable fee, changed his van when the original ULEZ came in here. No sweat.

    (And has noted how much less dirty the windows facing our local rat run have been since ULEZ).
    For all that peaple say no-one is really paying it, the old inner area ULEZ managed to raise £150m in charges and £70m in fines in year 22-23.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-65778065

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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    One of the curiosities of the Brexit era was that, to a large extent, the British political debate became exclusively an internal Conservative party debate. In normal times a political party seems to keep internal debate, internal, and avoids washing its dirty laundry in public. The Tories are completely unable to keep to such discipline.
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