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We need more bureaucracy – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,380
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Skiddaw said:

    Skiddaw said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    I don't believe in guilt by association, but Jeez..

    Man of the people, totally normal person
    @RobertKennedyJr after being asked about flying on JEFFREY EPSTEIN'S plane:

    "So and I run into everybody in New York. I mean, I knew Harvey Weinstein, I knew Roger Ailes, I knew -- O.J. Simpson came to my house. Bill Cosby came to my house.”

    https://twitter.com/Lis_Smith/status/1765564202851139851

    "Ghislaine was always wonderful to me."

    No doubt.

    Addendum - Am starting to think, that RFKjr is gonna underperform Kanye West. Certainly appears less qualified.
    He's also a leading anti-vaxx scammer, who causes serious damage to public health, while making a very good living off it.

    Lower than a snake's belly.
    Interesting view. The problem with this is huge numbers of people now know theres a problem with the covid vaccine. Even my dad said how many dementia care homes are going up and linked the explosion in dementia cases to the covid jab . There are also people on this board like malcolmg now open about their problems with the covid jab. Leon also linked to something yesterday about how they are covering up myocarditis cases.
    "huge numbers of people now know theres a problem with the covid vaccine. "

    They do not 'know' this. People read a load of alarmist sh*t, spread by idiots on websites, and believe it for whatever reason. They do not go deep into the data to see if there is actually any truth in the claims, because they requires knowledge and intelligence.
    Well i defer to your intelligence. Millions seeing their relatives suffering must be imagining it.
    1) A place crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border.
    Key to comedy: incessant repetition spanning several years.
    Can someone explain this to me? I realise the 'funny' that the ROC is an island, Taiwan. But nor does Ukraine have a border with the PRC,
    It did from 1918 to 1922 but I don't think that is part of the "joke".

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Ukraine
    Interesting history, thanks.

    Is what is the 'joke'?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,172
    Test
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,060

    Nigelb said:

    The Russian troll is boring; can we get rid of him please ?

    To elevate the conversation, here's an interesting paper on the genetics of domestication. The finding of heritable and widespread changes in gene expression, which seem to be able to occur over a single generation, is quite the surprise.
    The suggested explanation is also surprisingly simple.

    A single generation of domestication heritably alters the expression of hundreds of genes
    https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms10676#Sec7
    The genetic underpinnings associated with the earliest stages of plant and animal domestication have remained elusive. Because a genome-wide response to selection can take many generations, the earliest detectable changes associated with domestication may first manifest as heritable changes to global patterns of gene expression. Here, to test this hypothesis, we measured differential gene expression in the offspring of wild and first-generation hatchery steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) reared in a common environment. Remarkably, we find that there were 723 genes differentially expressed between the two groups of offspring. Reciprocal crosses reveal that the differentially expressed genes could not be explained by maternal effects or by chance differences in the background levels of gene expression among unrelated families. Gene-enrichment analyses reveal that adaptation to the novel hatchery environment involved responses in wound healing, immunity and metabolism. These findings suggest that the earliest stages of domestication may involve adaptation to highly crowded conditions.

    And also that Lamarck was right, at least to an extent. I fear he is still routinely mocked by those who know a little about evolution, but not a lot.
    Pratchett is even more right. On Discworld, retro-phrenology is a thing. If the shape of the head shows one's' character, then your character can be changed by bashing your skull in the appropriate places, for a fee of course.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,862

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Skiddaw said:

    Skiddaw said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    I don't believe in guilt by association, but Jeez..

    Man of the people, totally normal person
    @RobertKennedyJr after being asked about flying on JEFFREY EPSTEIN'S plane:

    "So and I run into everybody in New York. I mean, I knew Harvey Weinstein, I knew Roger Ailes, I knew -- O.J. Simpson came to my house. Bill Cosby came to my house.”

    https://twitter.com/Lis_Smith/status/1765564202851139851

    "Ghislaine was always wonderful to me."

    No doubt.

    Addendum - Am starting to think, that RFKjr is gonna underperform Kanye West. Certainly appears less qualified.
    He's also a leading anti-vaxx scammer, who causes serious damage to public health, while making a very good living off it.

    Lower than a snake's belly.
    Interesting view. The problem with this is huge numbers of people now know theres a problem with the covid vaccine. Even my dad said how many dementia care homes are going up and linked the explosion in dementia cases to the covid jab . There are also people on this board like malcolmg now open about their problems with the covid jab. Leon also linked to something yesterday about how they are covering up myocarditis cases.
    "huge numbers of people now know theres a problem with the covid vaccine. "

    They do not 'know' this. People read a load of alarmist sh*t, spread by idiots on websites, and believe it for whatever reason. They do not go deep into the data to see if there is actually any truth in the claims, because they requires knowledge and intelligence.
    Well i defer to your intelligence. Millions seeing their relatives suffering must be imagining it.
    1) A place crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border.
    Key to comedy: incessant repetition spanning several years.
    Can someone explain this to me? I realise the 'funny' that the ROC is an island, Taiwan. But nor does Ukraine have a border with the PRC,
    It did from 1918 to 1922 but I don't think that is part of the "joke".

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Ukraine
    Interesting history, thanks.

    Is what is the 'joke'?
    Where do you bury the survivors?

    One doesn't tend to bury survivors.

    Normally the question is on an actual border, Malmesbury adds extra mischief with the specific non existent border.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,172
    Off to the Lords for the soon to be Lady May?
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,300

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Skiddaw said:

    Skiddaw said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    I don't believe in guilt by association, but Jeez..

    Man of the people, totally normal person
    @RobertKennedyJr after being asked about flying on JEFFREY EPSTEIN'S plane:

    "So and I run into everybody in New York. I mean, I knew Harvey Weinstein, I knew Roger Ailes, I knew -- O.J. Simpson came to my house. Bill Cosby came to my house.”

    https://twitter.com/Lis_Smith/status/1765564202851139851

    "Ghislaine was always wonderful to me."

    No doubt.

    Addendum - Am starting to think, that RFKjr is gonna underperform Kanye West. Certainly appears less qualified.
    He's also a leading anti-vaxx scammer, who causes serious damage to public health, while making a very good living off it.

    Lower than a snake's belly.
    Interesting view. The problem with this is huge numbers of people now know theres a problem with the covid vaccine. Even my dad said how many dementia care homes are going up and linked the explosion in dementia cases to the covid jab . There are also people on this board like malcolmg now open about their problems with the covid jab. Leon also linked to something yesterday about how they are covering up myocarditis cases.
    "huge numbers of people now know theres a problem with the covid vaccine. "

    They do not 'know' this. People read a load of alarmist sh*t, spread by idiots on websites, and believe it for whatever reason. They do not go deep into the data to see if there is actually any truth in the claims, because they requires knowledge and intelligence.
    Well i defer to your intelligence. Millions seeing their relatives suffering must be imagining it.
    1) A place crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border.
    Key to comedy: incessant repetition spanning several years.
    Can someone explain this to me? I realise the 'funny' that the ROC is an island, Taiwan. But nor does Ukraine have a border with the PRC,
    It did from 1918 to 1922 but I don't think that is part of the "joke".

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Ukraine
    Interesting history, thanks.

    Is what is the 'joke'?
    The Malmesbot 2000 attempts to befuddle and disorient those he perceives to be "Russian Trolls" by posing the question which whimsically implies that Ukraine will subsume the Russian Federation and similar for Taiwan/PRC. This is then repeated 300 times to the great delight of all.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,628
    Selebian said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Skiddaw said:

    Skiddaw said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    I don't believe in guilt by association, but Jeez..

    Man of the people, totally normal person
    @RobertKennedyJr after being asked about flying on JEFFREY EPSTEIN'S plane:

    "So and I run into everybody in New York. I mean, I knew Harvey Weinstein, I knew Roger Ailes, I knew -- O.J. Simpson came to my house. Bill Cosby came to my house.”

    https://twitter.com/Lis_Smith/status/1765564202851139851

    "Ghislaine was always wonderful to me."

    No doubt.

    Addendum - Am starting to think, that RFKjr is gonna underperform Kanye West. Certainly appears less qualified.
    He's also a leading anti-vaxx scammer, who causes serious damage to public health, while making a very good living off it.

    Lower than a snake's belly.
    Interesting view. The problem with this is huge numbers of people now know theres a problem with the covid vaccine. Even my dad said how many dementia care homes are going up and linked the explosion in dementia cases to the covid jab . There are also people on this board like malcolmg now open about their problems with the covid jab. Leon also linked to something yesterday about how they are covering up myocarditis cases.
    "huge numbers of people now know theres a problem with the covid vaccine. "

    They do not 'know' this. People read a load of alarmist sh*t, spread by idiots on websites, and believe it for whatever reason. They do not go deep into the data to see if there is actually any truth in the claims, because they requires knowledge and intelligence.
    Well i defer to your intelligence. Millions seeing their relatives suffering must be imagining it.
    1) A place crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border.
    Key to comedy: incessant repetition spanning several years.
    Can someone explain this to me? I realise the 'funny' that the ROC is an island, Taiwan. But nor does Ukraine have a border with the PRC,
    It did from 1918 to 1922 but I don't think that is part of the "joke".

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Ukraine
    Interesting history, thanks.

    Is what is the 'joke'?
    Where do you bury the survivors?

    One doesn't tend to bury survivors.

    Normally the question is on an actual border, Malmesbury adds extra mischief with the specific non existent border.
    The survivors thing is straight from a Martin Gardner joke - he noticed that because of context, many people missed the absurdity. They concentrate on a problem that is absurd, missing the detail.

    Non existent border *now*

    Psycho Irredentism takes time
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,046
    GIN1138 said:

    Off to the Lords for the soon to be Lady May?

    May-be

  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,380
    GIN1138 said:

    Test

    And he's back. How did you enjoy the Spam Trap experience Gin? I did warn you!! :D
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,628
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Skiddaw said:

    Skiddaw said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    I don't believe in guilt by association, but Jeez..

    Man of the people, totally normal person
    @RobertKennedyJr after being asked about flying on JEFFREY EPSTEIN'S plane:

    "So and I run into everybody in New York. I mean, I knew Harvey Weinstein, I knew Roger Ailes, I knew -- O.J. Simpson came to my house. Bill Cosby came to my house.”

    https://twitter.com/Lis_Smith/status/1765564202851139851

    "Ghislaine was always wonderful to me."

    No doubt.

    Addendum - Am starting to think, that RFKjr is gonna underperform Kanye West. Certainly appears less qualified.
    He's also a leading anti-vaxx scammer, who causes serious damage to public health, while making a very good living off it.

    Lower than a snake's belly.
    Interesting view. The problem with this is huge numbers of people now know theres a problem with the covid vaccine. Even my dad said how many dementia care homes are going up and linked the explosion in dementia cases to the covid jab . There are also people on this board like malcolmg now open about their problems with the covid jab. Leon also linked to something yesterday about how they are covering up myocarditis cases.
    "huge numbers of people now know theres a problem with the covid vaccine. "

    They do not 'know' this. People read a load of alarmist sh*t, spread by idiots on websites, and believe it for whatever reason. They do not go deep into the data to see if there is actually any truth in the claims, because they requires knowledge and intelligence.
    Well i defer to your intelligence. Millions seeing their relatives suffering must be imagining it.
    1) A place crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border.
    Key to comedy: incessant repetition spanning several years.
    Can someone explain this to me? I realise the 'funny' that the ROC is an island, Taiwan. But nor does Ukraine have a border with the PRC,
    It did from 1918 to 1922 but I don't think that is part of the "joke".

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Ukraine
    Interesting history, thanks.

    Is what is the 'joke'?
    The Malmesbot 2000 attempts to befuddle and disorient those he perceives to be "Russian Trolls" by posing the question which whimsically implies that Ukraine will subsume the Russian Federation and similar for Taiwan/PRC. This is then repeated 300 times to the great delight of all.
    Interesting that the question both annoys you and you don’t get what the answer is.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,398
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Why are the Putin apologists always also antivaxxers? Surely they'd be able to keep their cover a bit longer if they didn't immediately launch into the antivax idiocy. It's such an obvious giveaway.

    Russian propaganda latches onto anything that causes division in the west.
    The anti-vaxx movement is particularly useful as it's essentially outside of normal politics (though it's a not insignificant part of Trump's constituency).
    If it turns out that the vaccines do fuck you up, which seems at least possible as they were developed and tested over a bank holiday weekend, then we'll never know about it. It'll have to be covered up.
    Every drug comes with a leaflet listing dozens of possible side effects. Vaccines will be the same, even these ones, and the lists can only grow longer.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,380
    Selebian said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Skiddaw said:

    Skiddaw said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    I don't believe in guilt by association, but Jeez..

    Man of the people, totally normal person
    @RobertKennedyJr after being asked about flying on JEFFREY EPSTEIN'S plane:

    "So and I run into everybody in New York. I mean, I knew Harvey Weinstein, I knew Roger Ailes, I knew -- O.J. Simpson came to my house. Bill Cosby came to my house.”

    https://twitter.com/Lis_Smith/status/1765564202851139851

    "Ghislaine was always wonderful to me."

    No doubt.

    Addendum - Am starting to think, that RFKjr is gonna underperform Kanye West. Certainly appears less qualified.
    He's also a leading anti-vaxx scammer, who causes serious damage to public health, while making a very good living off it.

    Lower than a snake's belly.
    Interesting view. The problem with this is huge numbers of people now know theres a problem with the covid vaccine. Even my dad said how many dementia care homes are going up and linked the explosion in dementia cases to the covid jab . There are also people on this board like malcolmg now open about their problems with the covid jab. Leon also linked to something yesterday about how they are covering up myocarditis cases.
    "huge numbers of people now know theres a problem with the covid vaccine. "

    They do not 'know' this. People read a load of alarmist sh*t, spread by idiots on websites, and believe it for whatever reason. They do not go deep into the data to see if there is actually any truth in the claims, because they requires knowledge and intelligence.
    Well i defer to your intelligence. Millions seeing their relatives suffering must be imagining it.
    1) A place crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border.
    Key to comedy: incessant repetition spanning several years.
    Can someone explain this to me? I realise the 'funny' that the ROC is an island, Taiwan. But nor does Ukraine have a border with the PRC,
    It did from 1918 to 1922 but I don't think that is part of the "joke".

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Ukraine
    Interesting history, thanks.

    Is what is the 'joke'?
    Where do you bury the survivors?

    One doesn't tend to bury survivors.

    Normally the question is on an actual border, Malmesbury adds extra mischief with the specific non existent border.
    Yes, I have heard that one many times before, but my question was about the Taiwan angle. As neither the ROC nor the PRC have a border with Ukraine, this would seem to be irrelevant.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,380
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Skiddaw said:

    Skiddaw said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    I don't believe in guilt by association, but Jeez..

    Man of the people, totally normal person
    @RobertKennedyJr after being asked about flying on JEFFREY EPSTEIN'S plane:

    "So and I run into everybody in New York. I mean, I knew Harvey Weinstein, I knew Roger Ailes, I knew -- O.J. Simpson came to my house. Bill Cosby came to my house.”

    https://twitter.com/Lis_Smith/status/1765564202851139851

    "Ghislaine was always wonderful to me."

    No doubt.

    Addendum - Am starting to think, that RFKjr is gonna underperform Kanye West. Certainly appears less qualified.
    He's also a leading anti-vaxx scammer, who causes serious damage to public health, while making a very good living off it.

    Lower than a snake's belly.
    Interesting view. The problem with this is huge numbers of people now know theres a problem with the covid vaccine. Even my dad said how many dementia care homes are going up and linked the explosion in dementia cases to the covid jab . There are also people on this board like malcolmg now open about their problems with the covid jab. Leon also linked to something yesterday about how they are covering up myocarditis cases.
    "huge numbers of people now know theres a problem with the covid vaccine. "

    They do not 'know' this. People read a load of alarmist sh*t, spread by idiots on websites, and believe it for whatever reason. They do not go deep into the data to see if there is actually any truth in the claims, because they requires knowledge and intelligence.
    Well i defer to your intelligence. Millions seeing their relatives suffering must be imagining it.
    1) A place crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border.
    Key to comedy: incessant repetition spanning several years.
    Can someone explain this to me? I realise the 'funny' that the ROC is an island, Taiwan. But nor does Ukraine have a border with the PRC,
    It did from 1918 to 1922 but I don't think that is part of the "joke".

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Ukraine
    Interesting history, thanks.

    Is what is the 'joke'?
    The Malmesbot 2000 attempts to befuddle and disorient those he perceives to be "Russian Trolls" by posing the question which whimsically implies that Ukraine will subsume the Russian Federation and similar for Taiwan/PRC. This is then repeated 300 times to the great delight of all.
    Right, okay. :D
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,046
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Skiddaw said:

    Skiddaw said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    I don't believe in guilt by association, but Jeez..

    Man of the people, totally normal person
    @RobertKennedyJr after being asked about flying on JEFFREY EPSTEIN'S plane:

    "So and I run into everybody in New York. I mean, I knew Harvey Weinstein, I knew Roger Ailes, I knew -- O.J. Simpson came to my house. Bill Cosby came to my house.”

    https://twitter.com/Lis_Smith/status/1765564202851139851

    "Ghislaine was always wonderful to me."

    No doubt.

    Addendum - Am starting to think, that RFKjr is gonna underperform Kanye West. Certainly appears less qualified.
    He's also a leading anti-vaxx scammer, who causes serious damage to public health, while making a very good living off it.

    Lower than a snake's belly.
    Interesting view. The problem with this is huge numbers of people now know theres a problem with the covid vaccine. Even my dad said how many dementia care homes are going up and linked the explosion in dementia cases to the covid jab . There are also people on this board like malcolmg now open about their problems with the covid jab. Leon also linked to something yesterday about how they are covering up myocarditis cases.
    "huge numbers of people now know theres a problem with the covid vaccine. "

    They do not 'know' this. People read a load of alarmist sh*t, spread by idiots on websites, and believe it for whatever reason. They do not go deep into the data to see if there is actually any truth in the claims, because they requires knowledge and intelligence.
    Well i defer to your intelligence. Millions seeing their relatives suffering must be imagining it.
    1) A place crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border.
    Key to comedy: incessant repetition spanning several years.
    Can someone explain this to me? I realise the 'funny' that the ROC is an island, Taiwan. But nor does Ukraine have a border with the PRC,
    It did from 1918 to 1922 but I don't think that is part of the "joke".

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Ukraine
    Interesting history, thanks.

    Is what is the 'joke'?
    The Malmesbot 2000 attempts to befuddle and disorient those he perceives to be "Russian Trolls" by posing the question which whimsically implies that Ukraine will subsume the Russian Federation and similar for Taiwan/PRC. This is then repeated 300 times to the great delight of all.
    PRC = West Taiwan :lol:
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,463
    .

    Nigelb said:

    The Russian troll is boring; can we get rid of him please ?

    To elevate the conversation, here's an interesting paper on the genetics of domestication. The finding of heritable and widespread changes in gene expression, which seem to be able to occur over a single generation, is quite the surprise.
    The suggested explanation is also surprisingly simple.

    A single generation of domestication heritably alters the expression of hundreds of genes
    https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms10676#Sec7
    The genetic underpinnings associated with the earliest stages of plant and animal domestication have remained elusive. Because a genome-wide response to selection can take many generations, the earliest detectable changes associated with domestication may first manifest as heritable changes to global patterns of gene expression. Here, to test this hypothesis, we measured differential gene expression in the offspring of wild and first-generation hatchery steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) reared in a common environment. Remarkably, we find that there were 723 genes differentially expressed between the two groups of offspring. Reciprocal crosses reveal that the differentially expressed genes could not be explained by maternal effects or by chance differences in the background levels of gene expression among unrelated families. Gene-enrichment analyses reveal that adaptation to the novel hatchery environment involved responses in wound healing, immunity and metabolism. These findings suggest that the earliest stages of domestication may involve adaptation to highly crowded conditions.

    Yes he was. Gone now.

    Incidentally, my father was a teacher and in the Summer holidays took parties of school children hiking up mountains (something that probably wouldn't be possible nowadays given H&S). He loved the Lake District. But the one mountain he avoided was Skiddaw, I remember him saying that it was just a boring featureless slog from bottom to top.
    Coming up from the North West via Ullock Pike provides a decent route. The tourist route from Keswick is a grind, even from the carpark a but higher up (Latrigg). Also that route is a motorway now, so popular is it.
    I would have liked more appreciation for my Fell pun.
    It's not a hill to die on, though.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,221

    Nigelb said:

    The Russian troll is boring; can we get rid of him please ?

    To elevate the conversation, here's an interesting paper on the genetics of domestication. The finding of heritable and widespread changes in gene expression, which seem to be able to occur over a single generation, is quite the surprise.
    The suggested explanation is also surprisingly simple.

    A single generation of domestication heritably alters the expression of hundreds of genes
    https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms10676#Sec7
    The genetic underpinnings associated with the earliest stages of plant and animal domestication have remained elusive. Because a genome-wide response to selection can take many generations, the earliest detectable changes associated with domestication may first manifest as heritable changes to global patterns of gene expression. Here, to test this hypothesis, we measured differential gene expression in the offspring of wild and first-generation hatchery steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) reared in a common environment. Remarkably, we find that there were 723 genes differentially expressed between the two groups of offspring. Reciprocal crosses reveal that the differentially expressed genes could not be explained by maternal effects or by chance differences in the background levels of gene expression among unrelated families. Gene-enrichment analyses reveal that adaptation to the novel hatchery environment involved responses in wound healing, immunity and metabolism. These findings suggest that the earliest stages of domestication may involve adaptation to highly crowded conditions.

    Yes he was. Gone now.

    Incidentally, my father was a teacher and in the Summer holidays took parties of school children hiking up mountains (something that probably wouldn't be possible nowadays given H&S). He loved the Lake District. But the one mountain he avoided was Skiddaw, I remember him saying that it was just a boring featureless slog from bottom to top.
    Understandable but wrong. The 'tourist route' from Keswick is dull, but the route via Ullock Pike is one of the finest and most thrilling walks around, as are the quiet approaches from the north west; and from Skiddaw House, one of the remotest dwellings in England and in the heart of the wonderful, huge and unknown area 'behind' Skiddaw. Even now, as Wainwright said years ago 'the perfect bank holiday refuge'.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,398
    LEARNING LESSONS FROM THE CYBER-ATTACK
    British Library cyber incident review

    https://www.bl.uk/home/british-library-cyber-incident-review-8-march-2024.pdf

    For the tech sec PBers.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,172

    GIN1138 said:

    Test

    And he's back. How did you enjoy the Spam Trap experience Gin? I did warn you!! :D
    As far as I know, I avoided the delights of the Spam Trap on this occasion :D
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,380
    Monty opens a door.

    Do you switch?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,150
    F1: Sainz out of the race weekend due to appendicitis, replaced by Oliver Bearman, an 18 year old Briton.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/68511360
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,380
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Test

    And he's back. How did you enjoy the Spam Trap experience Gin? I did warn you!! :D
    As far as I know, I avoided the delights of the Spam Trap on this occasion :D
    You are a lucky general, Gin.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,918

    Monty opens a door.

    Do you switch?

    Yes, as the show was originally set up.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,221

    Nigelb said:

    The Russian troll is boring; can we get rid of him please ?

    To elevate the conversation, here's an interesting paper on the genetics of domestication. The finding of heritable and widespread changes in gene expression, which seem to be able to occur over a single generation, is quite the surprise.
    The suggested explanation is also surprisingly simple.

    A single generation of domestication heritably alters the expression of hundreds of genes
    https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms10676#Sec7
    The genetic underpinnings associated with the earliest stages of plant and animal domestication have remained elusive. Because a genome-wide response to selection can take many generations, the earliest detectable changes associated with domestication may first manifest as heritable changes to global patterns of gene expression. Here, to test this hypothesis, we measured differential gene expression in the offspring of wild and first-generation hatchery steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) reared in a common environment. Remarkably, we find that there were 723 genes differentially expressed between the two groups of offspring. Reciprocal crosses reveal that the differentially expressed genes could not be explained by maternal effects or by chance differences in the background levels of gene expression among unrelated families. Gene-enrichment analyses reveal that adaptation to the novel hatchery environment involved responses in wound healing, immunity and metabolism. These findings suggest that the earliest stages of domestication may involve adaptation to highly crowded conditions.

    Yes he was. Gone now.

    Incidentally, my father was a teacher and in the Summer holidays took parties of school children hiking up mountains (something that probably wouldn't be possible nowadays given H&S). He loved the Lake District. But the one mountain he avoided was Skiddaw, I remember him saying that it was just a boring featureless slog from bottom to top.
    Coming up from the North West via Ullock Pike provides a decent route. The tourist route from Keswick is a grind, even from the carpark a but higher up (Latrigg). Also that route is a motorway now, so popular is it.
    I see that we are two minds with but a single thought.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,463
    Just when you thought things in the US couldn't get worse.

    Forget Pickleball, America Is Now Fighting Over Cricket
    Cities across the U.S. are weighing stadiums for the sport, sparking pushback and bafflement: ‘Cricket? Like in England? Why?’
    https://www.wsj.com/us-news/cricket-stadiums-us-protests-pickleball-6458a895
  • Options
    TresTres Posts: 2,349

    Monty opens a door.

    Do you switch?

    depends if you gaf what's behind them
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,628

    LEARNING LESSONS FROM THE CYBER-ATTACK
    British Library cyber incident review

    https://www.bl.uk/home/british-library-cyber-incident-review-8-march-2024.pdf

    For the tech sec PBers.

    Infrastructure as software says hello.

    A surprising number of people make the mistake of thinking the data, source code etc is all that needs backing up.

    On the project I am working on, we define the infrastructure in software. Give us a raw Bitbucket/K8s environment, and we can restore the infrastructure setup and *then* our systems in a very short period of time.

    Everything on top of the basic software is backed up configuration.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,398

    Monty opens a door.

    Do you switch?

    Yes, as the show was originally set up.
    Yes, that was interesting as by and large Americans, who were familiar with the show, answered one way, and Britons going only by the question answered another. Like many analyses, this one depends on starting conditions and assumptions.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,380
    Nigelb said:

    Just when you thought things in the US couldn't get worse.

    Forget Pickleball, America Is Now Fighting Over Cricket
    Cities across the U.S. are weighing stadiums for the sport, sparking pushback and bafflement: ‘Cricket? Like in England? Why?’
    https://www.wsj.com/us-news/cricket-stadiums-us-protests-pickleball-6458a895

    Won't someone tell the Americans they need not weigh their stadiums for cricket, simply measure them?
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,398
    edited March 8
    Grammatically and recently politically correct historical US Navy recruitment poster.

    https://tile.loc.gov/storage-services/service/pnp/ppmsca/40800/40824v.jpg

    Don't tell Cyclefree!
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,918
    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Russian troll is boring; can we get rid of him please ?

    To elevate the conversation, here's an interesting paper on the genetics of domestication. The finding of heritable and widespread changes in gene expression, which seem to be able to occur over a single generation, is quite the surprise.
    The suggested explanation is also surprisingly simple.

    A single generation of domestication heritably alters the expression of hundreds of genes
    https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms10676#Sec7
    The genetic underpinnings associated with the earliest stages of plant and animal domestication have remained elusive. Because a genome-wide response to selection can take many generations, the earliest detectable changes associated with domestication may first manifest as heritable changes to global patterns of gene expression. Here, to test this hypothesis, we measured differential gene expression in the offspring of wild and first-generation hatchery steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) reared in a common environment. Remarkably, we find that there were 723 genes differentially expressed between the two groups of offspring. Reciprocal crosses reveal that the differentially expressed genes could not be explained by maternal effects or by chance differences in the background levels of gene expression among unrelated families. Gene-enrichment analyses reveal that adaptation to the novel hatchery environment involved responses in wound healing, immunity and metabolism. These findings suggest that the earliest stages of domestication may involve adaptation to highly crowded conditions.

    Yes he was. Gone now.

    Incidentally, my father was a teacher and in the Summer holidays took parties of school children hiking up mountains (something that probably wouldn't be possible nowadays given H&S). He loved the Lake District. But the one mountain he avoided was Skiddaw, I remember him saying that it was just a boring featureless slog from bottom to top.
    Coming up from the North West via Ullock Pike provides a decent route. The tourist route from Keswick is a grind, even from the carpark a but higher up (Latrigg). Also that route is a motorway now, so popular is it.
    I see that we are two minds with but a single thought.
    Did the Ullock Pike walk many years ago (I think there was a Red Kite sanctuary near there) and its a classic isn't it! I usually find avoiding the main routes gets you a better Lakeland experience.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,918
    Funny - I though 30p was totally wrong? Yet some seem to think he had a point-

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68508351
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,240
    GIN1138 said:

    Off to the Lords for the soon to be Lady May?

    The modern tradition (Major onward) is to refuse. Cameron being the exception, but that was because he has been brought in for Foreign Sec rather than a general benchwarmer in the HoL.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,221
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Skiddaw said:

    Skiddaw said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    I don't believe in guilt by association, but Jeez..

    Man of the people, totally normal person
    @RobertKennedyJr after being asked about flying on JEFFREY EPSTEIN'S plane:

    "So and I run into everybody in New York. I mean, I knew Harvey Weinstein, I knew Roger Ailes, I knew -- O.J. Simpson came to my house. Bill Cosby came to my house.”

    https://twitter.com/Lis_Smith/status/1765564202851139851

    "Ghislaine was always wonderful to me."

    No doubt.

    Addendum - Am starting to think, that RFKjr is gonna underperform Kanye West. Certainly appears less qualified.
    He's also a leading anti-vaxx scammer, who causes serious damage to public health, while making a very good living off it.

    Lower than a snake's belly.
    Interesting view. The problem with this is huge numbers of people now know theres a problem with the covid vaccine. Even my dad said how many dementia care homes are going up and linked the explosion in dementia cases to the covid jab . There are also people on this board like malcolmg now open about their problems with the covid jab. Leon also linked to something yesterday about how they are covering up myocarditis cases.
    "huge numbers of people now know theres a problem with the covid vaccine. "

    They do not 'know' this. People read a load of alarmist sh*t, spread by idiots on websites, and believe it for whatever reason. They do not go deep into the data to see if there is actually any truth in the claims, because they requires knowledge and intelligence.
    Well i defer to your intelligence. Millions seeing their relatives suffering must be imagining it.
    1) A place crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China border.
    Key to comedy: incessant repetition spanning several years.
    Can someone explain this to me? I realise the 'funny' that the ROC is an island, Taiwan. But nor does Ukraine have a border with the PRC,
    It did from 1918 to 1922 but I don't think that is part of the "joke".

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Ukraine
    Interesting history, thanks.

    Is what is the 'joke'?
    The Malmesbot 2000 attempts to befuddle and disorient those he perceives to be "Russian Trolls" by posing the question which whimsically implies that Ukraine will subsume the Russian Federation and similar for Taiwan/PRC. This is then repeated 300 times to the great delight of all.
    Bonus point for using 'disorient' in place of 'disorientate' with its redundantatified extra syllable. Time it was abolitionized.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,875
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    The Russian troll is boring; can we get rid of him please ?

    To elevate the conversation, here's an interesting paper on the genetics of domestication. The finding of heritable and widespread changes in gene expression, which seem to be able to occur over a single generation, is quite the surprise.
    The suggested explanation is also surprisingly simple.

    A single generation of domestication heritably alters the expression of hundreds of genes
    https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms10676#Sec7
    The genetic underpinnings associated with the earliest stages of plant and animal domestication have remained elusive. Because a genome-wide response to selection can take many generations, the earliest detectable changes associated with domestication may first manifest as heritable changes to global patterns of gene expression. Here, to test this hypothesis, we measured differential gene expression in the offspring of wild and first-generation hatchery steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) reared in a common environment. Remarkably, we find that there were 723 genes differentially expressed between the two groups of offspring. Reciprocal crosses reveal that the differentially expressed genes could not be explained by maternal effects or by chance differences in the background levels of gene expression among unrelated families. Gene-enrichment analyses reveal that adaptation to the novel hatchery environment involved responses in wound healing, immunity and metabolism. These findings suggest that the earliest stages of domestication may involve adaptation to highly crowded conditions.

    Yes he was. Gone now.

    Incidentally, my father was a teacher and in the Summer holidays took parties of school children hiking up mountains (something that probably wouldn't be possible nowadays given H&S). He loved the Lake District. But the one mountain he avoided was Skiddaw, I remember him saying that it was just a boring featureless slog from bottom to top.
    Coming up from the North West via Ullock Pike provides a decent route. The tourist route from Keswick is a grind, even from the carpark a but higher up (Latrigg). Also that route is a motorway now, so popular is it.
    I would have liked more appreciation for my Fell pun.
    It's not a hill to die on, though.
    You're too good for the place, Nigel.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,398

    Funny - I though 30p was totally wrong? Yet some seem to think he had a point-

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68508351

    Anderson claimed there was an Islamist cabal controlling the Mayor, which is absurd as well as offensive. As for the contention that Jews are cowering under their beds, that is not my experience.

    But this story does raise questions about the nature of fear. Not all fears are well-founded but that does not make them less real.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,398

    Monty opens a door.

    Do you switch?

    Yes, as the show was originally set up.
    Yes, that was interesting as by and large Americans, who were familiar with the show, answered one way, and Britons going only by the question answered another. Like many analyses, this one depends on starting conditions and assumptions.
    I was first introduced to the Monty Hall problem during my PhD by a housemate who was a statistician. Its a brilliant way into understanding conditional probabilities.
    And also a brilliant way of understanding the role of hidden assumptions. In this case, the key is whether the host already knows what is behind the door he opens or if he picks one at random.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,559
    Election day is much more fun in Ireland - they report actual turnout figures during the day.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2024/0308/1436677-referendum-ireland/
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,221

    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Russian troll is boring; can we get rid of him please ?

    To elevate the conversation, here's an interesting paper on the genetics of domestication. The finding of heritable and widespread changes in gene expression, which seem to be able to occur over a single generation, is quite the surprise.
    The suggested explanation is also surprisingly simple.

    A single generation of domestication heritably alters the expression of hundreds of genes
    https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms10676#Sec7
    The genetic underpinnings associated with the earliest stages of plant and animal domestication have remained elusive. Because a genome-wide response to selection can take many generations, the earliest detectable changes associated with domestication may first manifest as heritable changes to global patterns of gene expression. Here, to test this hypothesis, we measured differential gene expression in the offspring of wild and first-generation hatchery steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) reared in a common environment. Remarkably, we find that there were 723 genes differentially expressed between the two groups of offspring. Reciprocal crosses reveal that the differentially expressed genes could not be explained by maternal effects or by chance differences in the background levels of gene expression among unrelated families. Gene-enrichment analyses reveal that adaptation to the novel hatchery environment involved responses in wound healing, immunity and metabolism. These findings suggest that the earliest stages of domestication may involve adaptation to highly crowded conditions.

    Yes he was. Gone now.

    Incidentally, my father was a teacher and in the Summer holidays took parties of school children hiking up mountains (something that probably wouldn't be possible nowadays given H&S). He loved the Lake District. But the one mountain he avoided was Skiddaw, I remember him saying that it was just a boring featureless slog from bottom to top.
    Coming up from the North West via Ullock Pike provides a decent route. The tourist route from Keswick is a grind, even from the carpark a but higher up (Latrigg). Also that route is a motorway now, so popular is it.
    I see that we are two minds with but a single thought.
    Did the Ullock Pike walk many years ago (I think there was a Red Kite sanctuary near there) and its a classic isn't it! I usually find avoiding the main routes gets you a better Lakeland experience.
    Yes. Solitude can be had especially with lesser known fells and odd routes; plus Cumbria is loads more than the lake district. Solway plain, west coast, the fantastic border territory, Eden valley and its tributaries, Pennines etc, most of it massively unvisited because everyone goes to the lakes, and mostly the southern half of them.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,221

    Election day is much more fun in Ireland - they report actual turnout figures during the day.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2024/0308/1436677-referendum-ireland/

    Is that because FF, FG and SF tell them the numbers in advance?
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,158
    Looks like "Skiddaw" should've been dubbed "Skidoo" by Mad Vlad's bot-works. As in, 23 Skidoo Street.

    Was around juuuuuuust long (or rather short) enough to put in a good word for some actual PBers.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,548

    Funny - I though 30p was totally wrong? Yet some seem to think he had a point-

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68508351

    Anderson claimed there was an Islamist cabal controlling the Mayor, which is absurd as well as offensive. As for the contention that Jews are cowering under their beds, that is not my experience.

    But this story does raise questions about the nature of fear. Not all fears are well-founded but that does not make them less real.
    Palestine protests make many in the Jewish community uncomfortable, because of the fuzzy line that exists in the minds of some between ‘Jew’ and ‘Israeli’ (never mind ‘Israeli people’ and ‘Israeli government’).

    I don’t think this ought to characterise the centre of London as ‘no-go’ (a weird phrase that Alan Clark types used in the 70s and 80s when it was black people they were more afraid of), but there is a - tbh justifiable - alarmist strain in the public discourse of Jewish Britain. My kids’ school, which is Jewish as I think I’ve mentioned on here before, still has plain clothes patrols round school run and security with stab vests. Personally, I feel this is OTT, but the school is following advice so hey.

    I’d have no issue taking my kids into central London and indeed plan to do so later this year. London is quite big, and protests are easily avoided.

    As to 30p, his comments were racist nonsense of the highest order and he deserves the broad-gauge barracking he’s received for his ludicrous claims.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,221

    Monty opens a door.

    Do you switch?

    Yes, as the show was originally set up.
    Yes, that was interesting as by and large Americans, who were familiar with the show, answered one way, and Britons going only by the question answered another. Like many analyses, this one depends on starting conditions and assumptions.
    I was first introduced to the Monty Hall problem during my PhD by a housemate who was a statistician. Its a brilliant way into understanding conditional probabilities.
    And also a brilliant way of understanding the role of hidden assumptions. In this case, the key is whether the host already knows what is behind the door he opens or if he picks one at random.
    Indeed. In much the same way that the key to betting on horses is knowing which one is going to win. (This has so far eluded me).

  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,221

    Looks like "Skiddaw" should've been dubbed "Skidoo" by Mad Vlad's bot-works. As in, 23 Skidoo Street.

    Was around juuuuuuust long (or rather short) enough to put in a good word for some actual PBers.

    And to end up better informed, if no wiser, about Skiddaw.
  • Options
    StereodogStereodog Posts: 438
    On topic an interesting article but in my experience (of a large government department which shall remain nameless) most low level government employees are answering the phones. In truth most queries could be answered either by an ai chatbot or an online chat with a human which would allow for huge staffing cuts. It’s not the bureaucracy itself that resists this kind of change but ministers who fear a public backlash if they turn the phone lines off (with obvious exceptions for those with access issues, the very elderly etc).
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,559
    algarkirk said:

    Election day is much more fun in Ireland - they report actual turnout figures during the day.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2024/0308/1436677-referendum-ireland/

    Is that because FF, FG and SF tell them the numbers in advance?
    If that were the case then I think they're overdoing the theatre of counting the votes laboriously slowly.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,398
    algarkirk said:

    Monty opens a door.

    Do you switch?

    Yes, as the show was originally set up.
    Yes, that was interesting as by and large Americans, who were familiar with the show, answered one way, and Britons going only by the question answered another. Like many analyses, this one depends on starting conditions and assumptions.
    I was first introduced to the Monty Hall problem during my PhD by a housemate who was a statistician. Its a brilliant way into understanding conditional probabilities.
    And also a brilliant way of understanding the role of hidden assumptions. In this case, the key is whether the host already knows what is behind the door he opens or if he picks one at random.
    Indeed. In much the same way that the key to betting on horses is knowing which one is going to win. (This has so far eluded me).

    It eluded me yesterday, except for one winner I missed while typing on here. All systems go for next week.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,398
    Stereodog said:

    On topic an interesting article but in my experience (of a large government department which shall remain nameless) most low level government employees are answering the phones. In truth most queries could be answered either by an ai chatbot or an online chat with a human which would allow for huge staffing cuts. It’s not the bureaucracy itself that resists this kind of change but ministers who fear a public backlash if they turn the phone lines off (with obvious exceptions for those with access issues, the very elderly etc).

    I spent much of yesterday dealing with AI chatbots and then being passed through to humans following scripts on pain of death, which was only marginally better.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,934
    edited March 8

    Funny - I though 30p was totally wrong? Yet some seem to think he had a point-

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68508351

    By 'some' you mean Robin Simcox, the government's own counter-extremism commissioner. I'm not persuaded that he is an objective observer:

    Mr Simcox was appointed to his advisory role by then-Home Secretary Priti Patel in July 2022, having served in an interim capacity since March 2021.He is a former Margaret Thatcher Fellow at The Heritage Foundation, an ultra-conservative US-based think tank.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,628
    Stereodog said:

    On topic an interesting article but in my experience (of a large government department which shall remain nameless) most low level government employees are answering the phones. In truth most queries could be answered either by an ai chatbot or an online chat with a human which would allow for huge staffing cuts. It’s not the bureaucracy itself that resists this kind of change but ministers who fear a public backlash if they turn the phone lines off (with obvious exceptions for those with access issues, the very elderly etc).

    The problem is shutting off all the phone lines. The correct thing to do, is to use automated systems to deal with the 95% of simple queries. Then use the online chat format to a human as the next layer. And then, lastly, a phone response.

    Which means you can hire a smaller (but still non-trivial) number of higher quality staff to fix problems that can't be answered by the automation.

    As usual the problem is managers who think The Office is a training guide.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,398
    Ghedebrav said:

    Funny - I though 30p was totally wrong? Yet some seem to think he had a point-

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68508351

    Anderson claimed there was an Islamist cabal controlling the Mayor, which is absurd as well as offensive. As for the contention that Jews are cowering under their beds, that is not my experience.

    But this story does raise questions about the nature of fear. Not all fears are well-founded but that does not make them less real.
    Palestine protests make many in the Jewish community uncomfortable, because of the fuzzy line that exists in the minds of some between ‘Jew’ and ‘Israeli’ (never mind ‘Israeli people’ and ‘Israeli government’).

    I don’t think this ought to characterise the centre of London as ‘no-go’ (a weird phrase that Alan Clark types used in the 70s and 80s when it was black people they were more afraid of), but there is a - tbh justifiable - alarmist strain in the public discourse of Jewish Britain. My kids’ school, which is Jewish as I think I’ve mentioned on here before, still has plain clothes patrols round school run and security with stab vests. Personally, I feel this is OTT, but the school is following advice so hey.

    I’d have no issue taking my kids into central London and indeed plan to do so later this year. London is quite big, and protests are easily avoided.

    As to 30p, his comments were racist nonsense of the highest order and he deserves the broad-gauge barracking he’s received for his ludicrous claims.
    There are local schools near me that have security guards and metal detectors. They are not Jewish though. Sadly, it's a sign of the times. The school up the road has this week masked off its playground, the gate to which has long been kept locked when not in use.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,688
    Tres said:

    Monty opens a door.

    Do you switch?

    depends if you gaf what's behind them
    It's a speedboat 😁
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,628
    algarkirk said:

    Monty opens a door.

    Do you switch?

    Yes, as the show was originally set up.
    Yes, that was interesting as by and large Americans, who were familiar with the show, answered one way, and Britons going only by the question answered another. Like many analyses, this one depends on starting conditions and assumptions.
    I was first introduced to the Monty Hall problem during my PhD by a housemate who was a statistician. Its a brilliant way into understanding conditional probabilities.
    And also a brilliant way of understanding the role of hidden assumptions. In this case, the key is whether the host already knows what is behind the door he opens or if he picks one at random.
    Indeed. In much the same way that the key to betting on horses is knowing which one is going to win. (This has so far eluded me).

    Many years ago, one of the guys in the pubs was so renowned for betting on the losing horse, that some of the spread betting guys tried an inverse betting system, based on his tips.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,177

    AlsoLei said:

    Regarding government IT projects, rather than trying to build Skynet we should stick to specifying data interchange formats between different systems and let a thousand flowers bloom.

    We also need to separate development from support. One reason the same handful of firms win all the projects is that only they have the capacity to support a userbase of tens of thousands, whereas most successful software was originally developed by small teams.

    On your second point, that is happening to some extent - I've worked on a number of public sector software projects as part of the sort of small team that you describe. The only problem is that immediately after delivery, the software gets handed over to AtoS or Capita for maintenance and support... and they inevitably run it into the ground.

    Ideally, that support capability would be provided in-house within the Civil Service, but it seems to be impossible to make that happen. GDS got fairly close, but they seem to have lost most of their momentum over the past 4-5 years.
    There are the following kinds of software

    1) Actively developed
    2) Dead

    (there are a tiny number of tools that haven't been changed in decades, but that's pretty much irrelevant for this.

    The belief that you develop a bespoke application like buying a truck, run it until it falls apart, then buy a new one, is part of the problem.

    You need an in-house function (an internal consultancy is often a good model) that includes on going support of the applications. What you do every damn day is "core business".
    Which brings us right back to the problem you mention in the threader - that the public sector actively resists building capability in-house because it's filled with Assistant Directors and Under Secretaries who can't countenance hiring a junior technical oik who expects to be paid the same as them.

    GDS was probably the closest to the ideal that the public sector can manage - though it's more akin to an internal agency, rather than an internal consultancy. It had a bit more leeway on pay bands than the rest of the civil service, but they managed to hire a lot of very good people on below market rates because of the prestige of working on something that genuinely was, for a time, world-beating.

    It lost its way partly because a bunch of senior people moved on at roughly the same time, but also because of the confusion and delay around Brexit - the whole org was re-oriented towards being ready to building platforms to meet the government's Brexit needs... but for about three years, no-one could define what those needs actually were. That seems to have been enough to kill most of the momentum that it had once had.

    I now refuse to work on public sector projects - they're just too depressing.

  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,919
    edited March 8
    AlsoLei said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Regarding government IT projects, rather than trying to build Skynet we should stick to specifying data interchange formats between different systems and let a thousand flowers bloom.

    We also need to separate development from support. One reason the same handful of firms win all the projects is that only they have the capacity to support a userbase of tens of thousands, whereas most successful software was originally developed by small teams.

    On your second point, that is happening to some extent - I've worked on a number of public sector software projects as part of the sort of small team that you describe. The only problem is that immediately after delivery, the software gets handed over to AtoS or Capita for maintenance and support... and they inevitably run it into the ground.

    Ideally, that support capability would be provided in-house within the Civil Service, but it seems to be impossible to make that happen. GDS got fairly close, but they seem to have lost most of their momentum over the past 4-5 years.
    There are the following kinds of software

    1) Actively developed
    2) Dead

    (there are a tiny number of tools that haven't been changed in decades, but that's pretty much irrelevant for this.

    The belief that you develop a bespoke application like buying a truck, run it until it falls apart, then buy a new one, is part of the problem.

    You need an in-house function (an internal consultancy is often a good model) that includes on going support of the applications. What you do every damn day is "core business".
    Which brings us right back to the problem you mention in the threader - that the public sector actively resists building capability in-house because it's filled with Assistant Directors and Under Secretaries who can't countenance hiring a junior technical oik who expects to be paid the same as them.

    GDS was probably the closest to the ideal that the public sector can manage - though it's more akin to an internal agency, rather than an internal consultancy. It had a bit more leeway on pay bands than the rest of the civil service, but they managed to hire a lot of very good people on below market rates because of the prestige of working on something that genuinely was, for a time, world-beating.

    It lost its way partly because a bunch of senior people moved on at roughly the same time, but also because of the confusion and delay around Brexit - the whole org was re-oriented towards being ready to building platforms to meet the government's Brexit needs... but for about three years, no-one could define what those needs actually were. That seems to have been enough to kill most of the momentum that it had once had.

    I now refuse to work on public sector projects - they're just too depressing.

    The problem isn’t just that people need to be paid a lot, it’s that public sector pay scales aren’t set up for it.

    The market rate for my skill set is £120-150,000 a year with an appropriate package attached to that. No payscale is designed to deal with that because a lot of that money comes from the fact I’ve been there, done that and know exactly how the internals work so you are paying me £x0,000 a year to take a very Quick Look and go don’t do that, do it this way.

    Now you can find people on paper doing what looks like my job for £60,000 a year but they aren’t doing what I actually do, just the easy 50% of it.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,628
    AlsoLei said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Regarding government IT projects, rather than trying to build Skynet we should stick to specifying data interchange formats between different systems and let a thousand flowers bloom.

    We also need to separate development from support. One reason the same handful of firms win all the projects is that only they have the capacity to support a userbase of tens of thousands, whereas most successful software was originally developed by small teams.

    On your second point, that is happening to some extent - I've worked on a number of public sector software projects as part of the sort of small team that you describe. The only problem is that immediately after delivery, the software gets handed over to AtoS or Capita for maintenance and support... and they inevitably run it into the ground.

    Ideally, that support capability would be provided in-house within the Civil Service, but it seems to be impossible to make that happen. GDS got fairly close, but they seem to have lost most of their momentum over the past 4-5 years.
    There are the following kinds of software

    1) Actively developed
    2) Dead

    (there are a tiny number of tools that haven't been changed in decades, but that's pretty much irrelevant for this.

    The belief that you develop a bespoke application like buying a truck, run it until it falls apart, then buy a new one, is part of the problem.

    You need an in-house function (an internal consultancy is often a good model) that includes on going support of the applications. What you do every damn day is "core business".
    Which brings us right back to the problem you mention in the threader - that the public sector actively resists building capability in-house because it's filled with Assistant Directors and Under Secretaries who can't countenance hiring a junior technical oik who expects to be paid the same as them.

    GDS was probably the closest to the ideal that the public sector can manage - though it's more akin to an internal agency, rather than an internal consultancy. It had a bit more leeway on pay bands than the rest of the civil service, but they managed to hire a lot of very good people on below market rates because of the prestige of working on something that genuinely was, for a time, world-beating.

    It lost its way partly because a bunch of senior people moved on at roughly the same time, but also because of the confusion and delay around Brexit - the whole org was re-oriented towards being ready to building platforms to meet the government's Brexit needs... but for about three years, no-one could define what those needs actually were. That seems to have been enough to kill most of the momentum that it had once had.

    I now refuse to work on public sector projects - they're just too depressing.

    I imagine a special rank - the FuckYouSirHumphery salary band. Which comes with a God Call Me God, pre-installed.

    The exact sequence of bowing to the carpet multiple times on approach and retreat from the holder to be determined.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,101
    Skiddaw said:

    This is dr aseem malhotra on the pandemic of the vaccine injured.

    https://x.com/Nohj_85/status/1763204469104234609?s=20

    Missed this one.

    19 minutes in and a red card up for a hatful of studs up challenges.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,548

    Ghedebrav said:

    Funny - I though 30p was totally wrong? Yet some seem to think he had a point-

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68508351

    Anderson claimed there was an Islamist cabal controlling the Mayor, which is absurd as well as offensive. As for the contention that Jews are cowering under their beds, that is not my experience.

    But this story does raise questions about the nature of fear. Not all fears are well-founded but that does not make them less real.
    Palestine protests make many in the Jewish community uncomfortable, because of the fuzzy line that exists in the minds of some between ‘Jew’ and ‘Israeli’ (never mind ‘Israeli people’ and ‘Israeli government’).

    I don’t think this ought to characterise the centre of London as ‘no-go’ (a weird phrase that Alan Clark types used in the 70s and 80s when it was black people they were more afraid of), but there is a - tbh justifiable - alarmist strain in the public discourse of Jewish Britain. My kids’ school, which is Jewish as I think I’ve mentioned on here before, still has plain clothes patrols round school run and security with stab vests. Personally, I feel this is OTT, but the school is following advice so hey.

    I’d have no issue taking my kids into central London and indeed plan to do so later this year. London is quite big, and protests are easily avoided.

    As to 30p, his comments were racist nonsense of the highest order and he deserves the broad-gauge barracking he’s received for his ludicrous claims.
    There are local schools near me that have security guards and metal detectors. They are not Jewish though. Sadly, it's a sign of the times. The school up the road has this week masked off its playground, the gate to which has long been kept locked when not in use.
    Should note my kids’ school is a primary.

    My secondary should have had all that stuff, albeit to protect the surrounding community from the inmates, rather than the other way round.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,917
    CatMan said:

    F1 News: "Saudi Arabian Grand Prix: Carlos Sainz ruled out and replaced by Oliver Bearman"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/68511360

    Sainz has appendicitis. He was in practice yesterday, ouch!

    Yes, get well soon Carlos. What a great opportunity for F2 driver Bearman, who’s already in the car in practice.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,628
    eek said:

    AlsoLei said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Regarding government IT projects, rather than trying to build Skynet we should stick to specifying data interchange formats between different systems and let a thousand flowers bloom.

    We also need to separate development from support. One reason the same handful of firms win all the projects is that only they have the capacity to support a userbase of tens of thousands, whereas most successful software was originally developed by small teams.

    On your second point, that is happening to some extent - I've worked on a number of public sector software projects as part of the sort of small team that you describe. The only problem is that immediately after delivery, the software gets handed over to AtoS or Capita for maintenance and support... and they inevitably run it into the ground.

    Ideally, that support capability would be provided in-house within the Civil Service, but it seems to be impossible to make that happen. GDS got fairly close, but they seem to have lost most of their momentum over the past 4-5 years.
    There are the following kinds of software

    1) Actively developed
    2) Dead

    (there are a tiny number of tools that haven't been changed in decades, but that's pretty much irrelevant for this.

    The belief that you develop a bespoke application like buying a truck, run it until it falls apart, then buy a new one, is part of the problem.

    You need an in-house function (an internal consultancy is often a good model) that includes on going support of the applications. What you do every damn day is "core business".
    Which brings us right back to the problem you mention in the threader - that the public sector actively resists building capability in-house because it's filled with Assistant Directors and Under Secretaries who can't countenance hiring a junior technical oik who expects to be paid the same as them.

    GDS was probably the closest to the ideal that the public sector can manage - though it's more akin to an internal agency, rather than an internal consultancy. It had a bit more leeway on pay bands than the rest of the civil service, but they managed to hire a lot of very good people on below market rates because of the prestige of working on something that genuinely was, for a time, world-beating.

    It lost its way partly because a bunch of senior people moved on at roughly the same time, but also because of the confusion and delay around Brexit - the whole org was re-oriented towards being ready to building platforms to meet the government's Brexit needs... but for about three years, no-one could define what those needs actually were. That seems to have been enough to kill most of the momentum that it had once had.

    I now refuse to work on public sector projects - they're just too depressing.

    The problem isn’t just that people need to be paid a lot, it’s that public sector pay scales aren’t set up for it.

    The market rate for my skill set is £120-150,000 a year with an appropriate package attached to that. No payscale is designed to deal with that because a lot of that money comes from the fact I’ve been there, done that and know exactly how the internals work so you are paying me £x,000 a year to take a very Quick Look and go don’t do that, do it this way
    Bill -

    Part to replace : £0.25
    Value of knowledge of knowing what to replace and how : £499.75

    Much of my job is scratching my greying hair and saying - "Nice idea. I saw that tried back in the day. The Neanderthals thought it was going to solve the problem."
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,688

    Ghedebrav said:

    Funny - I though 30p was totally wrong? Yet some seem to think he had a point-

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68508351

    Anderson claimed there was an Islamist cabal controlling the Mayor, which is absurd as well as offensive. As for the contention that Jews are cowering under their beds, that is not my experience.

    But this story does raise questions about the nature of fear. Not all fears are well-founded but that does not make them less real.
    Palestine protests make many in the Jewish community uncomfortable, because of the fuzzy line that exists in the minds of some between ‘Jew’ and ‘Israeli’ (never mind ‘Israeli people’ and ‘Israeli government’).

    I don’t think this ought to characterise the centre of London as ‘no-go’ (a weird phrase that Alan Clark types used in the 70s and 80s when it was black people they were more afraid of), but there is a - tbh justifiable - alarmist strain in the public discourse of Jewish Britain. My kids’ school, which is Jewish as I think I’ve mentioned on here before, still has plain clothes patrols round school run and security with stab vests. Personally, I feel this is OTT, but the school is following advice so hey.

    I’d have no issue taking my kids into central London and indeed plan to do so later this year. London is quite big, and protests are easily avoided.

    As to 30p, his comments were racist nonsense of the highest order and he deserves the broad-gauge barracking he’s received for his ludicrous claims.
    There are local schools near me that have security guards and metal detectors. They are not Jewish though. Sadly, it's a sign of the times. The school up the road has this week masked off its playground, the gate to which has long been kept locked when not in use.
    We have lost the ability to distinguish between immediate threats and distant ones, and both now incite real fears, which incite real actions, in turn inspiring real counter-action, and round and round we go, getting worse thru each loop. The telly drama "The Crown" had Harold Wilson saying that his job was to calm more crises than he created. Sunak gets this exactly wrong and sends Gove off to come up with a definition of extremism that includes Muslims and pro-Palestinians whilst excluding everybody else, then suppressing them whilst banging on about free speech. Sunak is, if you'll forgive me, a total [not that word - Ed]
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,380

    algarkirk said:

    Monty opens a door.

    Do you switch?

    Yes, as the show was originally set up.
    Yes, that was interesting as by and large Americans, who were familiar with the show, answered one way, and Britons going only by the question answered another. Like many analyses, this one depends on starting conditions and assumptions.
    I was first introduced to the Monty Hall problem during my PhD by a housemate who was a statistician. Its a brilliant way into understanding conditional probabilities.
    And also a brilliant way of understanding the role of hidden assumptions. In this case, the key is whether the host already knows what is behind the door he opens or if he picks one at random.
    Indeed. In much the same way that the key to betting on horses is knowing which one is going to win. (This has so far eluded me).

    Many years ago, one of the guys in the pubs was so renowned for betting on the losing horse, that some of the spread betting guys tried an inverse betting system, based on his tips.
    There was once a poster on here called @MrEd, that if you took the other side of every tip he made for Potus 2020, you'd have made a fortune.
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,268

    Let's see on antivaxxer standard claims.

    - The most studied vaccines in history are actually the covid vaccines. As at November 2023, a search found 64,265 papers in Pubmed on the covid vaccines since 2020. Compared with 30,724 on flu vaccines since 1936, 17,204 of measles vaccines since 1814, and 11,457 on polio vaccines since 1928.
    -
    - No study stages were skipped on trials; they went quickly because we already had trial vaccines for SARS and MERS, because the stages involving getting funding and approval in principle to actually study vaccines for this virus were rather unsurprisingly instant, because getting enough people to do the trial was very rapid (usually takes quite a while; volunteers kicked the doors down for this one), and waiting for enough people to be naturally infected in the two arms of the various trials happened over months rather than years (almost as if a worldwide pandemic was under way).
    -
    - Any very rare side-effects that weren't statistically visible in the normal Stage 3 trials that come up in Stage 4 (observation after rollout) were not only NOT covered up, but immediately highlighted and studied in public. Rather denting the "there's a worldwide conspiracy to cover it all up" bollocks.

    - Side effects from vaccines are invarably visible in a couple or three months at the longest - because they don't stay in your system (something that antivaxxers see, confused about). They simulate an infection by the virus in question to trigger your natural adaptive immune response (without having the "taking over and eating your cells to reproduce exponentially inside you" element of an actual viral infection). Yes, the induced immune response can cause negative side-effects (which in many cases are the same - usually worse and more frequent - with infection-generated immune responses), but the immune system calms down pretty quickly and the vaccine is cleared out of your system.
    Have I missed any?

    Could you please stop posting facts and scientific evidence. This is PoliticalConspiracyTheories.com, after all.
    Well actually I think you have completely failed to address the impact of Bill Gates's microchip implant in all of that so-called "science". Also I look great in my tinfoil hat.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,762

    rkrkrk said:

    Good header generally, and agree on failure to pay decent rates for technical skills.

    Civil service has massively shed jobs at very junior grades already, at least in central govt where I used to work.

    The story of unions blocking change is a bit outdated tbh, they are largely irrelevant. They couldn't stop massive pension changes and 20% workforce reduction from 2010.

    And civil service is now growing significantly thanks in part to additional work from Brexit.

    One of the successes in this area IMO has been gov.uk or govx whatever its called. UK govt websites generally very good, much better than US in my experience.

    A major problem is fragmentation and empires. The US Government is worse for this, due to the system of political appointments to the permanent system - so you get politically minded people building empires.

    The reaction to the COVID dashboard is instructive - https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk took over and expanded on the idea to a limited extent.

    In many other areas of government, there was a furious reaction to the idea of presenting operational data in a public, easily read form.

    Just doing that across government would be a massive step forwards.
    To their credit, Cummings and Warner were very keen on dashboards with publicly available data during the early days of COVID.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,380
    Ghedebrav said:

    Callback to a discussion from a while ago, but I found out today that the Ship Of Theseus article on Wikipedia has now been edited so many times that none of the phrases from the original article remain.

    I was delighted to note that Trigger's Broom is cited as a popular example of the paradox.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,628
    mwadams said:

    Let's see on antivaxxer standard claims.

    - The most studied vaccines in history are actually the covid vaccines. As at November 2023, a search found 64,265 papers in Pubmed on the covid vaccines since 2020. Compared with 30,724 on flu vaccines since 1936, 17,204 of measles vaccines since 1814, and 11,457 on polio vaccines since 1928.
    -
    - No study stages were skipped on trials; they went quickly because we already had trial vaccines for SARS and MERS, because the stages involving getting funding and approval in principle to actually study vaccines for this virus were rather unsurprisingly instant, because getting enough people to do the trial was very rapid (usually takes quite a while; volunteers kicked the doors down for this one), and waiting for enough people to be naturally infected in the two arms of the various trials happened over months rather than years (almost as if a worldwide pandemic was under way).
    -
    - Any very rare side-effects that weren't statistically visible in the normal Stage 3 trials that come up in Stage 4 (observation after rollout) were not only NOT covered up, but immediately highlighted and studied in public. Rather denting the "there's a worldwide conspiracy to cover it all up" bollocks.

    - Side effects from vaccines are invarably visible in a couple or three months at the longest - because they don't stay in your system (something that antivaxxers see, confused about). They simulate an infection by the virus in question to trigger your natural adaptive immune response (without having the "taking over and eating your cells to reproduce exponentially inside you" element of an actual viral infection). Yes, the induced immune response can cause negative side-effects (which in many cases are the same - usually worse and more frequent - with infection-generated immune responses), but the immune system calms down pretty quickly and the vaccine is cleared out of your system.
    Have I missed any?

    Could you please stop posting facts and scientific evidence. This is PoliticalConspiracyTheories.com, after all.
    Well actually I think you have completely failed to address the impact of Bill Gates's microchip implant in all of that so-called "science". Also I look great in my tinfoil hat.
    Tinfoil hats are for fools. They concentrate the Jewish Muslamic Mind Control Microwave Beams.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2012/09/tin-foil-hats-actually-make-it-easier-for-the-government-to-track-your-thoughts/262998/
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,074

    algarkirk said:

    Monty opens a door.

    Do you switch?

    Yes, as the show was originally set up.
    Yes, that was interesting as by and large Americans, who were familiar with the show, answered one way, and Britons going only by the question answered another. Like many analyses, this one depends on starting conditions and assumptions.
    I was first introduced to the Monty Hall problem during my PhD by a housemate who was a statistician. Its a brilliant way into understanding conditional probabilities.
    And also a brilliant way of understanding the role of hidden assumptions. In this case, the key is whether the host already knows what is behind the door he opens or if he picks one at random.
    Indeed. In much the same way that the key to betting on horses is knowing which one is going to win. (This has so far eluded me).

    Many years ago, one of the guys in the pubs was so renowned for betting on the losing horse, that some of the spread betting guys tried an inverse betting system, based on his tips.
    How well did it work??
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,688

    algarkirk said:

    Monty opens a door.

    Do you switch?

    Yes, as the show was originally set up.
    Yes, that was interesting as by and large Americans, who were familiar with the show, answered one way, and Britons going only by the question answered another. Like many analyses, this one depends on starting conditions and assumptions.
    I was first introduced to the Monty Hall problem during my PhD by a housemate who was a statistician. Its a brilliant way into understanding conditional probabilities.
    And also a brilliant way of understanding the role of hidden assumptions. In this case, the key is whether the host already knows what is behind the door he opens or if he picks one at random.
    Indeed. In much the same way that the key to betting on horses is knowing which one is going to win. (This has so far eluded me).

    Many years ago, one of the guys in the pubs was so renowned for betting on the losing horse, that some of the spread betting guys tried an inverse betting system, based on his tips.
    There was once a poster on here called @MrEd, that if you took the other side of every tip he made for Potus 2020, you'd have made a fortune.
    I have a soft spot for @MrEd, on the ground he could make a coherent case for Trump winning that involved explaining, not sneering. In order for me to assess an election and to bet I need people from both sides to calmly put forward facts I can check and arguments that hang together (Google "Maxwell's Demon" for when this goes wrong). @MrEd was invaluable in that respect.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,688
    edited March 8

    Ghedebrav said:

    Callback to a discussion from a while ago, but I found out today that the Ship Of Theseus article on Wikipedia has now been edited so many times that none of the phrases from the original article remain.

    I was delighted to note that Trigger's Broom is cited as a popular example of the paradox.
    Britain's greatest 21st century contribution to philosophy
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,081
    edited March 8
    Lorna and Nora deserved winners of the British dog dancing freestyle, who will go on to compete in the international competition over the weekend. Great distance hand,ong and some very good timing.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,888

    TOPPING said:

    Good header.

    Not that I more than speed-read it but it seemed to include "NHS" and "fucking useless" in sentiment rather than explicitly so I applaud it wholeheartedly.

    I expect precisely nothing to change at the NHS for precisely the reason given by @Malmesbury - people have become subservient to the system.

    The NHS is not fucking useless. It delivers more healthcare for the £ than many other systems on the planet.

    What is needed is good management. What they used to call scientific management, back when punch cards were cool. Which means careful analysis of where the blockages are and removing them.

    For example, an OR analysis might come up with the heresy that we could treat more by spending less on medical staff and more on hospice type facilities to get elderly “bed blockers” out of actual hospital beds.
    Which makes it fucking useless until it gets that.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,628
    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    Monty opens a door.

    Do you switch?

    Yes, as the show was originally set up.
    Yes, that was interesting as by and large Americans, who were familiar with the show, answered one way, and Britons going only by the question answered another. Like many analyses, this one depends on starting conditions and assumptions.
    I was first introduced to the Monty Hall problem during my PhD by a housemate who was a statistician. Its a brilliant way into understanding conditional probabilities.
    And also a brilliant way of understanding the role of hidden assumptions. In this case, the key is whether the host already knows what is behind the door he opens or if he picks one at random.
    Indeed. In much the same way that the key to betting on horses is knowing which one is going to win. (This has so far eluded me).

    Many years ago, one of the guys in the pubs was so renowned for betting on the losing horse, that some of the spread betting guys tried an inverse betting system, based on his tips.
    How well did it work??
    They made about 50p - it was more as a joke.

    Interesting crew - they were extracting the delta between the various bookmakers around the world, pre internet. Also taking advantage of the very poor knowledge of minority sports at various bookmakers. They created a large and consistent ROI.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,398

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    Monty opens a door.

    Do you switch?

    Yes, as the show was originally set up.
    Yes, that was interesting as by and large Americans, who were familiar with the show, answered one way, and Britons going only by the question answered another. Like many analyses, this one depends on starting conditions and assumptions.
    I was first introduced to the Monty Hall problem during my PhD by a housemate who was a statistician. Its a brilliant way into understanding conditional probabilities.
    And also a brilliant way of understanding the role of hidden assumptions. In this case, the key is whether the host already knows what is behind the door he opens or if he picks one at random.
    Indeed. In much the same way that the key to betting on horses is knowing which one is going to win. (This has so far eluded me).

    Many years ago, one of the guys in the pubs was so renowned for betting on the losing horse, that some of the spread betting guys tried an inverse betting system, based on his tips.
    How well did it work??
    They made about 50p - it was more as a joke.

    Interesting crew - they were extracting the delta between the various bookmakers around the world, pre internet. Also taking advantage of the very poor knowledge of minority sports at various bookmakers. They created a large and consistent ROI.
    What was the Olympics coup a couple of decades back? Something along the lines of an unknown athlete being backed in one of the women's events at huge prices because bookmakers hadn't realised the Russian world record holder had got married.

    Or the golf hole-in-one gang exploiting bookmakers not realising how common holes in one are (or not realising how big the fields are in golf tournaments).

    Or that chap on an obscure political betting blog who tipped up Obama at 50/1.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,380
    viewcode said:

    algarkirk said:

    Monty opens a door.

    Do you switch?

    Yes, as the show was originally set up.
    Yes, that was interesting as by and large Americans, who were familiar with the show, answered one way, and Britons going only by the question answered another. Like many analyses, this one depends on starting conditions and assumptions.
    I was first introduced to the Monty Hall problem during my PhD by a housemate who was a statistician. Its a brilliant way into understanding conditional probabilities.
    And also a brilliant way of understanding the role of hidden assumptions. In this case, the key is whether the host already knows what is behind the door he opens or if he picks one at random.
    Indeed. In much the same way that the key to betting on horses is knowing which one is going to win. (This has so far eluded me).

    Many years ago, one of the guys in the pubs was so renowned for betting on the losing horse, that some of the spread betting guys tried an inverse betting system, based on his tips.
    There was once a poster on here called @MrEd, that if you took the other side of every tip he made for Potus 2020, you'd have made a fortune.
    I have a soft spot for @MrEd, on the ground he could make a coherent case for Trump winning that involved explaining, not sneering. In order for me to assess an election and to bet I need people from both sides to calmly put forward facts I can check and arguments that hang together (Google "Maxwell's Demon" for when this goes wrong). @MrEd was invaluable in that respect.
    Hmm. His ‘analysis’ that Virgina would flip
    GOP was based on little more than wishcasting.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,294

    mwadams said:

    Let's see on antivaxxer standard claims.

    - The most studied vaccines in history are actually the covid vaccines. As at November 2023, a search found 64,265 papers in Pubmed on the covid vaccines since 2020. Compared with 30,724 on flu vaccines since 1936, 17,204 of measles vaccines since 1814, and 11,457 on polio vaccines since 1928.
    -
    - No study stages were skipped on trials; they went quickly because we already had trial vaccines for SARS and MERS, because the stages involving getting funding and approval in principle to actually study vaccines for this virus were rather unsurprisingly instant, because getting enough people to do the trial was very rapid (usually takes quite a while; volunteers kicked the doors down for this one), and waiting for enough people to be naturally infected in the two arms of the various trials happened over months rather than years (almost as if a worldwide pandemic was under way).
    -
    - Any very rare side-effects that weren't statistically visible in the normal Stage 3 trials that come up in Stage 4 (observation after rollout) were not only NOT covered up, but immediately highlighted and studied in public. Rather denting the "there's a worldwide conspiracy to cover it all up" bollocks.

    - Side effects from vaccines are invarably visible in a couple or three months at the longest - because they don't stay in your system (something that antivaxxers see, confused about). They simulate an infection by the virus in question to trigger your natural adaptive immune response (without having the "taking over and eating your cells to reproduce exponentially inside you" element of an actual viral infection). Yes, the induced immune response can cause negative side-effects (which in many cases are the same - usually worse and more frequent - with infection-generated immune responses), but the immune system calms down pretty quickly and the vaccine is cleared out of your system.
    Have I missed any?

    Could you please stop posting facts and scientific evidence. This is PoliticalConspiracyTheories.com, after all.
    Well actually I think you have completely failed to address the impact of Bill Gates's microchip implant in all of that so-called "science". Also I look great in my tinfoil hat.
    Tinfoil hats are for fools. They concentrate the Jewish Muslamic Mind Control Microwave Beams.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2012/09/tin-foil-hats-actually-make-it-easier-for-the-government-to-track-your-thoughts/262998/
    I only keep my tinfoil hat handy in case I am unexpectedly exposed to GB News.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,463

    F1: Sainz out of the race weekend due to appendicitis, replaced by Oliver Bearman, an 18 year old Briton.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/68511360

    Looks the real deal.
    What are his odds to be the next British world champion ?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,748
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Why are the Putin apologists always also antivaxxers? Surely they'd be able to keep their cover a bit longer if they didn't immediately launch into the antivax idiocy. It's such an obvious giveaway.

    Russian propaganda latches onto anything that causes division in the west.
    The anti-vaxx movement is particularly useful as it's essentially outside of normal politics (though it's a not insignificant part of Trump's constituency).
    If it turns out that the vaccines do fuck you up, which seems at least possible as they were developed and tested over a bank holiday weekend, then we'll never know about it. It'll have to be covered up.
    All vaccines muck someone up; it's the nature of the beast. That's why it's hard to say: "This vaccine is 100% safe."

    The question is whether the risks of the vaccine outweigh the advantages: does the vaccine cause problems for far fewer people than the disease? And I've seen no data that shows any mainstream Covid vaccines does.

    So now the antivaxxers and their enablers are going for nebulous long-term effects. It'll be bullshit.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,764
    For those who think that Biden is too old, I recommend watching this.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bmo18WkQvvU
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,294

    AlsoLei said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Regarding government IT projects, rather than trying to build Skynet we should stick to specifying data interchange formats between different systems and let a thousand flowers bloom.

    We also need to separate development from support. One reason the same handful of firms win all the projects is that only they have the capacity to support a userbase of tens of thousands, whereas most successful software was originally developed by small teams.

    On your second point, that is happening to some extent - I've worked on a number of public sector software projects as part of the sort of small team that you describe. The only problem is that immediately after delivery, the software gets handed over to AtoS or Capita for maintenance and support... and they inevitably run it into the ground.

    Ideally, that support capability would be provided in-house within the Civil Service, but it seems to be impossible to make that happen. GDS got fairly close, but they seem to have lost most of their momentum over the past 4-5 years.
    There are the following kinds of software

    1) Actively developed
    2) Dead

    (there are a tiny number of tools that haven't been changed in decades, but that's pretty much irrelevant for this.

    The belief that you develop a bespoke application like buying a truck, run it until it falls apart, then buy a new one, is part of the problem.

    You need an in-house function (an internal consultancy is often a good model) that includes on going support of the applications. What you do every damn day is "core business".
    Which brings us right back to the problem you mention in the threader - that the public sector actively resists building capability in-house because it's filled with Assistant Directors and Under Secretaries who can't countenance hiring a junior technical oik who expects to be paid the same as them.

    GDS was probably the closest to the ideal that the public sector can manage - though it's more akin to an internal agency, rather than an internal consultancy. It had a bit more leeway on pay bands than the rest of the civil service, but they managed to hire a lot of very good people on below market rates because of the prestige of working on something that genuinely was, for a time, world-beating.

    It lost its way partly because a bunch of senior people moved on at roughly the same time, but also because of the confusion and delay around Brexit - the whole org was re-oriented towards being ready to building platforms to meet the government's Brexit needs... but for about three years, no-one could define what those needs actually were. That seems to have been enough to kill most of the momentum that it had once had.

    I now refuse to work on public sector projects - they're just too depressing.

    I imagine a special rank - the FuckYouSirHumphery salary band. Which comes with a God Call Me God, pre-installed.

    The exact sequence of bowing to the carpet multiple times on approach and retreat from the holder to be determined.
    The Government could set up arms length consultancies that public bodies could hire in. Any profits made would return to the Government, to be set against the costs incurred by the relevant public body.
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,294

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    Monty opens a door.

    Do you switch?

    Yes, as the show was originally set up.
    Yes, that was interesting as by and large Americans, who were familiar with the show, answered one way, and Britons going only by the question answered another. Like many analyses, this one depends on starting conditions and assumptions.
    I was first introduced to the Monty Hall problem during my PhD by a housemate who was a statistician. Its a brilliant way into understanding conditional probabilities.
    And also a brilliant way of understanding the role of hidden assumptions. In this case, the key is whether the host already knows what is behind the door he opens or if he picks one at random.
    Indeed. In much the same way that the key to betting on horses is knowing which one is going to win. (This has so far eluded me).

    Many years ago, one of the guys in the pubs was so renowned for betting on the losing horse, that some of the spread betting guys tried an inverse betting system, based on his tips.
    How well did it work??
    They made about 50p - it was more as a joke.

    Interesting crew - they were extracting the delta between the various bookmakers around the world, pre internet. Also taking advantage of the very poor knowledge of minority sports at various bookmakers. They created a large and consistent ROI.
    What was the Olympics coup a couple of decades back? Something along the lines of an unknown athlete being backed in one of the women's events at huge prices because bookmakers hadn't realised the Russian world record holder had got married.

    Or the golf hole-in-one gang exploiting bookmakers not realising how common holes in one are (or not realising how big the fields are in golf tournaments).

    Or that chap on an obscure political betting blog who tipped up Obama at 50/1.
    I thought they were called courses, not fields.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,081
    And we’re off for the ABC medium agility final….


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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,189

    Taz said:

    Oh dear.
    No blacks, no Irish, no dogs, no immigrants.

    https://x.com/lbc/status/1765825818091991501?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    What a Rotten thing to say.

    I heard it last night on Marr. Pro-Brexit, lived in the USA for forty years, bemoaning the decay of seaside towns and attributing that to immigration.

    Johnny W*n*er, more like.
    The guy always was a narcissistic prick, same as Morrissey. People are only cottoning onto it it now as he is daring to have opinions they don't like. His narcissistic prick behaviour was always okay when he had the "right" views.
    I never liked the profane ****! And I couldn't bear the Smiths. Morrissey, the Poundland Julian Cope.
    That’s an insult to both of them.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,628

    Carnyx said:

    algarkirk said:

    Monty opens a door.

    Do you switch?

    Yes, as the show was originally set up.
    Yes, that was interesting as by and large Americans, who were familiar with the show, answered one way, and Britons going only by the question answered another. Like many analyses, this one depends on starting conditions and assumptions.
    I was first introduced to the Monty Hall problem during my PhD by a housemate who was a statistician. Its a brilliant way into understanding conditional probabilities.
    And also a brilliant way of understanding the role of hidden assumptions. In this case, the key is whether the host already knows what is behind the door he opens or if he picks one at random.
    Indeed. In much the same way that the key to betting on horses is knowing which one is going to win. (This has so far eluded me).

    Many years ago, one of the guys in the pubs was so renowned for betting on the losing horse, that some of the spread betting guys tried an inverse betting system, based on his tips.
    How well did it work??
    They made about 50p - it was more as a joke.

    Interesting crew - they were extracting the delta between the various bookmakers around the world, pre internet. Also taking advantage of the very poor knowledge of minority sports at various bookmakers. They created a large and consistent ROI.
    What was the Olympics coup a couple of decades back? Something along the lines of an unknown athlete being backed in one of the women's events at huge prices because bookmakers hadn't realised the Russian world record holder had got married.

    Or the golf hole-in-one gang exploiting bookmakers not realising how common holes in one are (or not realising how big the fields are in golf tournaments).

    Or that chap on an obscure political betting blog who tipped up Obama at 50/1.
    One that was a very good day was when the Nordic biathlon champion returned to the sport after a big break. None of the bookmakers seemed to realise that she was recovering from some really nasty injuries, hadn't trained much and was competing on a getting-back-into-it basis.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,398
    Skiddaw is about to run in the 2.30 at Ayr! A sign from the betting gods?
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,294

    Skiddaw is about to run in the 2.30 at Ayr! A sign from the betting gods?

    Disqualified after the 1st furlong?
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,862

    Skiddaw is about to run in the 2.30 at Ayr! A sign from the betting gods?

    Nah. Starts to eagerly. Doesn't last the course :wink:
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,380

    For those who think that Biden is too old, I recommend watching this.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bmo18WkQvvU

    Superb stuff from Big Joe.

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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,688
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Just popped in to mention Portugal has a General Election on Sunday. Just over two years, Antonio Costa led the Socialists to a clear victory winning 120 of the 230 seats in the Assembly of the Republic (to give the Portuguese Parliament its official title). The Social Democrats won 77 and the Chega Party went from a single seat to 12.

    A lot has happened since then - a series of scandals around the national airline, TAP, led to a series of Ministerial resignations but it was allegations of corruption relating to lithium mining and green hydrogen production which went to the Prime Minister's office at the very centre of Government and on Deember 7th 2023, Costa resigned.

    Pedro Nuno Santos, one of the casualties of the TAP scandal, won the contest to replace Costa as Socialist Party leader and Prime Minister but a snap election had already been called (not as we understand the word "snap", more unscheduled).

    The polls had moved strongly away from the Socialists dusing 2023 eroding their formerly big lead and bringing them level and then behind the Social Democrats who themselves had changed leader after the 2022 election defeat. Luis Montenegro rook over from Rio and has proved an effective leader though, as is so often the case, more through the failings of the Government.

    Significantly, he re-formed the Democratic Alliance (a political example of "getting the band back together") from the 1970s and early 1980s with the CDS - People's Party and the Monarchists. The new combined grouping quickly established a firm lead in the polls despite an unconvincing showing in the Azores Regional election last month when Chega advanced more decisively.

    Having lost by 12 points (41-29) in January 2022, the latest polls suggest a 6-8 point lead for the Democratic Alliance so a swing of 9-10 points. The Socialists are down twelve and the Social Democrats are up six but the other big winners are Chega who are set to double their vote share from seven to fourteen. The smaller parties are all about where they were two years ago though Liberal Initiative, a possible coalition partner for the Social Democrats, are up from four to six.

    In terms of seats, the guesstimate is the Democratic Alliance would move from 77 to 94 so significantly short of a majority with the Social Democrats down from 120 to 75. Chega would win about 30 seats enabling a Social Democrat-Chega coalition to enjoy a majority.with the other 30 seats split round the smaller parties.

    The nature of any coalition between the Social Democrats and Chega is unclear - Chega leader Andre Ventura has been adept in his comments - he is clearly strongly anti-Socialist but his line toward the Democratic Alliance has been more circumspect.

    I implore you, write an article on this
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,081
    Isabella, under 12 world champion handler, sees her dog stop at the end of the seesaw and stay there…losing vital time but a huge round of applause
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,862
    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Why are the Putin apologists always also antivaxxers? Surely they'd be able to keep their cover a bit longer if they didn't immediately launch into the antivax idiocy. It's such an obvious giveaway.

    Russian propaganda latches onto anything that causes division in the west.
    The anti-vaxx movement is particularly useful as it's essentially outside of normal politics (though it's a not insignificant part of Trump's constituency).
    If it turns out that the vaccines do fuck you up, which seems at least possible as they were developed and tested over a bank holiday weekend, then we'll never know about it. It'll have to be covered up.
    All vaccines muck someone up; it's the nature of the beast. That's why it's hard to say: "This vaccine is 100% safe."

    The question is whether the risks of the vaccine outweigh the advantages: does the vaccine cause problems for far fewer people than the disease? And I've seen no data that shows any mainstream Covid vaccines does.

    So now the antivaxxers and their enablers are going for nebulous long-term effects. It'll be bullshit.
    Indeed there is good evidence that myocarditis is both far more common and more severe in Covid infection than from vaccination.

    Indeed my nieces boyfriend has permanent cardiac myopathy following covid infection. He has a lifelimiting illness in his twenties, previously a University level athlete.

    Like this poor kid in Singapore:
    https://www.straitstimes.com/life/triple-whammy-nine-year-old-boy-in-singapore-suffers-covid-19-myocarditis-and-stroke

    His parents decided not to get him vaccinated out of fear of myocarditis from the vaccine.
    He caught covid, got very severe myocarditis from the virus, suffered a stroke, went into a coma and was on an ECMO machine to carry out his heart and lung function for him.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,081
    edited March 8
    Janine and Red Velvet go into the lead, just under 35 seconds and clear … and wins the intermediate ABC agility.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,862
    Just been asked (political poll) the following question:
    Between Keir Starmer and Liz Truss[sic], who do you think best embodies.. ' can bring British people together'?

    Kier[sic] Starmer
    Rishi Sunak
    Don't know

    I guess I have to go for 'Kier', whoever he is. If they'd actually let me choose Liz then I'd go for her, as she united the country in disgust in a way that few politicians have ever managed :wink:
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,794
    IanB2 said:

    And we’re off for the ABC medium agility final….


    Ooh look - there's that stuffed dog again.
This discussion has been closed.