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We need more bureaucracy – politicalbetting.com

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    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169

    Also, Corbyn acted as a cover, you see the Tories doing badly now but they've been doing virtually identical things even when Johnson was in charge. They just hated Corbyn more.

    2019 will come to be seen as an outlier. If you look at it in those terms, 2010, 2015, 2017 look far more logical of a measure of how popular the Tories actually are.

    Will the 2019 General Election have the same historical context for the Conservatives as the 1906 one had for the Liberals...?
    There's certainly a possibility that the Tories split, or never win again in their current form.

    I am not predicting such an outcome at all - but it's more likely than people think.

    But then I think Labour will be in for at least a decade.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,628
    Nigelb said:

    I don't believe in guilt by association, but Jeez..

    Man of the people, totally normal person
    @RobertKennedyJr after being asked about flying on JEFFREY EPSTEIN'S plane:

    "So and I run into everybody in New York. I mean, I knew Harvey Weinstein, I knew Roger Ailes, I knew -- O.J. Simpson came to my house. Bill Cosby came to my house.”

    https://twitter.com/Lis_Smith/status/1765564202851139851

    "Ghislaine was always wonderful to me."

    To be fair, there is a level of truth in this. These people were circulating in “high society”.

    OJ and Bill Crosby were celebrities until their falls. Weinstein took a lot of time and effort to cover up his behaviour - though rumours about it were more widespread.

    Epstein had a criminal conviction, by this time, though. Even if it was plea bargained into bullshit. What he was, was known, to anyone who bothered to do some due diligence.

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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,918

    Roger said:

    A Cabinet Minister gratuitously libels an academic and then using an archaic convention gets the taxpayer to pay the £15,000 damages.

    The Leader of the House defends the Minister in Parliament by claiming that she is a person of integrity proven by the fact she had foregone £16,000 redundency for being fired after ONE day in Boris Johnson's Cabinet.

    The only surprise in today's People's Polling is that the Tories have managed 18%

    Meanwhile her partner and his family made serious coin out of Covid PPE contracts.
    If the PPE was up to spec and used then I have fewer issues. The ones who supplied defective or useless PPE need to be pursued relentlessly.
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    Simon_PeachSimon_Peach Posts: 409
    Something is happening in the NHS… close relative rings GP last Friday at 3:30 with concern about skin lesion (has history of skin cancers)… is seen by GP at 17:15 the same day… is referred and seen by Dermatology Consultant at Lancaster Infirmary at 16:00 on Tuesday and is having skin cancer removed at 14:30 this Saturday… so, assuming it is not cancelled, seven days and 22 hours from start to finish… I told her that it’s to make her vote Conservative but she is sceptical…
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    eekeek Posts: 25,919
    edited March 8

    Something is happening in the NHS… close relative rings GP last Friday at 3:30 with concern about skin lesion (has history of skin cancers)… is seen by GP at 17:15 the same day… is referred and seen by Dermatology Consultant at Lancaster Infirmary at 16:00 on Tuesday and is having skin cancer removed at 14:30 this Saturday… so, assuming it is not cancelled, seven days and 22 hours from start to finish… I told her that it’s to make her vote Conservative but she is sceptical…

    That sounds more like a combination of it’s a serious but treatable cancer and we are on top of our waiting list.

    The M-I-L is getting similar treatment at the moment the delays in that treatment have been because she was in hospital for something else earlier in the week
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,463

    Nigelb said:

    I don't believe in guilt by association, but Jeez..

    Man of the people, totally normal person
    @RobertKennedyJr after being asked about flying on JEFFREY EPSTEIN'S plane:

    "So and I run into everybody in New York. I mean, I knew Harvey Weinstein, I knew Roger Ailes, I knew -- O.J. Simpson came to my house. Bill Cosby came to my house.”

    https://twitter.com/Lis_Smith/status/1765564202851139851

    "Ghislaine was always wonderful to me."

    No doubt.

    Addendum - Am starting to think, that RFKjr is gonna underperform Kanye West. Certainly appears less qualified.
    He's also a leading anti-vaxx scammer, who causes serious damage to public health, while making a very good living off it.

    Lower than a snake's belly.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,918

    Also, Corbyn acted as a cover, you see the Tories doing badly now but they've been doing virtually identical things even when Johnson was in charge. They just hated Corbyn more.

    2019 will come to be seen as an outlier. If you look at it in those terms, 2010, 2015, 2017 look far more logical of a measure of how popular the Tories actually are.

    I think this is right - 2019 was an odd election. Many voters were just sick to death of Parliament not being able to get Brexit through and voted accordingly. Combine that with the Johnson factor (a real thing - lots of people did genuinely like him, and some still do) and add in the busted Corbyn flush and you get the result we had.

    I suspect that come election day the Tories will poll higher than 20% - a lot of people say one thing on opinion polls but when in the booth the X goes where it always goes. But I wouldn't be amazed at a complete wipeout either. A lot depends on Reform - if they do stand everywhere then it could get very messy.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,210

    Also, Corbyn acted as a cover, you see the Tories doing badly now but they've been doing virtually identical things even when Johnson was in charge. They just hated Corbyn more.

    2019 will come to be seen as an outlier. If you look at it in those terms, 2010, 2015, 2017 look far more logical of a measure of how popular the Tories actually are.

    Will the 2019 General Election have the same historical context for the Conservatives as the 1906 one had for the Liberals...?
    No, not unless Reform overtake the Tories as the main party of the right as Labour overtook the Liberals as the Conservatives main opposition back then
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,184

    Something is happening in the NHS… close relative rings GP last Friday at 3:30 with concern about skin lesion (has history of skin cancers)… is seen by GP at 17:15 the same day… is referred and seen by Dermatology Consultant at Lancaster Infirmary at 16:00 on Tuesday and is having skin cancer removed at 14:30 this Saturday… so, assuming it is not cancelled, seven days and 22 hours from start to finish… I told her that it’s to make her vote Conservative but she is sceptical…

    “The Sunak, the better”
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,628
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    I don't believe in guilt by association, but Jeez..

    Man of the people, totally normal person
    @RobertKennedyJr after being asked about flying on JEFFREY EPSTEIN'S plane:

    "So and I run into everybody in New York. I mean, I knew Harvey Weinstein, I knew Roger Ailes, I knew -- O.J. Simpson came to my house. Bill Cosby came to my house.”

    https://twitter.com/Lis_Smith/status/1765564202851139851

    "Ghislaine was always wonderful to me."

    No doubt.

    Addendum - Am starting to think, that RFKjr is gonna underperform Kanye West. Certainly appears less qualified.
    He's also a leading anti-vaxx scammer, who causes serious damage to public health, while making a very good living off it.

    Lower than a snake's belly.
    The question I always wonder about, is, as with Wakefield - is this conscious scumbaggery? Or have they sold *to themselves* first?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,463
    eek said:

    Something is happening in the NHS… close relative rings GP last Friday at 3:30 with concern about skin lesion (has history of skin cancers)… is seen by GP at 17:15 the same day… is referred and seen by Dermatology Consultant at Lancaster Infirmary at 16:00 on Tuesday and is having skin cancer removed at 14:30 this Saturday… so, assuming it is not cancelled, seven days and 22 hours from start to finish… I told her that it’s to make her vote Conservative but she is sceptical…

    That sounds more like a combination of it’s a serious but treatable cancer and we are on top of our waiting list.

    The M-I-L is getting similar treatment at the moment the delays in that treatment have been because she was in hospital for something else earlier in the week
    It's usually a very simple operation, and saves a massive amount of trouble later on, so entirely sensible that it's prioritised.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,158
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    A Cabinet Minister gratuitously libels an academic and then using an archaic convention gets the taxpayer to pay the £15,000 damages.

    The Leader of the House defends the Minister in Parliament by claiming that she is a person of integrity proven by the fact she had foregone £16,000 redundency for being fired after ONE day in Boris Johnson's Cabinet.

    The only surprise in today's People's Polling is that the Tories have managed 18%

    Meanwhile her partner and his family made serious coin out of Covid PPE contracts.
    Clearly a family of integrity

    https://goodlawproject.org/michelle-donelan-partner-contracts/

    Pass the sickbag Alice......

    Johnson-Truss-Sunak maladminstration in UK, keeps working overtime trying to beat kleptocracy records set by Grant and Harding administrations in USA.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,628
    eek said:

    Something is happening in the NHS… close relative rings GP last Friday at 3:30 with concern about skin lesion (has history of skin cancers)… is seen by GP at 17:15 the same day… is referred and seen by Dermatology Consultant at Lancaster Infirmary at 16:00 on Tuesday and is having skin cancer removed at 14:30 this Saturday… so, assuming it is not cancelled, seven days and 22 hours from start to finish… I told her that it’s to make her vote Conservative but she is sceptical…

    That sounds more like a combination of it’s a serious but treatable cancer and we are on top of our waiting list.

    The M-I-L is getting similar treatment at the moment the delays in that treatment have been because she was in hospital for something else earlier in the week
    A family friend was on a waiting list for an operation - but not urgent. I think he was deliberately putting it off as well.

    He was almost begged to come in - apparently because he was "on the waiting list" for such a long time, he was massively pushing up their average time, all by himself. He's pretty senior in the academic line - the consultant told him this was the reason as one prof to another.
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    TazTaz Posts: 12,108

    Controversial idea: Kwasi Kwarteng was screwed over by Liz Truss and would not have presented any of her nutty ideas if he was in charge

    Listen to his interview on the Bloomberg money podcast. He is quite clear about it.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,158
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    I don't believe in guilt by association, but Jeez..

    Man of the people, totally normal person
    @RobertKennedyJr after being asked about flying on JEFFREY EPSTEIN'S plane:

    "So and I run into everybody in New York. I mean, I knew Harvey Weinstein, I knew Roger Ailes, I knew -- O.J. Simpson came to my house. Bill Cosby came to my house.”

    https://twitter.com/Lis_Smith/status/1765564202851139851

    "Ghislaine was always wonderful to me."

    No doubt.

    Addendum - Am starting to think, that RFKjr is gonna underperform Kanye West. Certainly appears less qualified.
    He's also a leading anti-vaxx scammer, who causes serious damage to public health, while making a very good living off it.

    Lower than a snake's belly.
    Actually met RFK Jr. once, decades ago. Before he went off the deep end. Just slightly weird even then.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,748

    Roger said:

    A Cabinet Minister gratuitously libels an academic and then using an archaic convention gets the taxpayer to pay the £15,000 damages.

    The Leader of the House defends the Minister in Parliament by claiming that she is a person of integrity proven by the fact she had foregone £16,000 redundency for being fired after ONE day in Boris Johnson's Cabinet.

    The only surprise in today's People's Polling is that the Tories have managed 18%

    Meanwhile her partner and his family made serious coin out of Covid PPE contracts.
    If the PPE was up to spec and used then I have fewer issues. The ones who supplied defective or useless PPE need to be pursued relentlessly.
    It depends on what they were asked. Remember that there was an urgent, immediate need, and a worldwide demand - no, fight - for supplies. Demand had gone up

    Also remember that Labour frontbenchers stood up in parliament and asked why no-name suppliers were not being approached. That's how critical supply was. Any lead to getting PPE was being followed up.

    If we had gone through normal processes, we could have ended up with next to nothing. Instead, we went for anything we could get. The government ordered 30 billion items of PPE during Covid, and 25 billion were delivered.

    How much waste is forgivable in such a critical situation? Lots? None?

    https://healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2023/03/30/covid-ppe-media-fact-sheet/
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,917
    Ooh, three quick wickets there, maybe England can start their second innings only 250 behind.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,210

    "Theresa May to stand down as MP at next election"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68509239

    Sad to see her go, but 27 years is a good innings as an MP.

    She also had a personal vote in Maidenhead which will now be a top LD target seat, they already now control the council
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,989
    Good header generally, and agree on failure to pay decent rates for technical skills.

    Civil service has massively shed jobs at very junior grades already, at least in central govt where I used to work.

    The story of unions blocking change is a bit outdated tbh, they are largely irrelevant. They couldn't stop massive pension changes and 20% workforce reduction from 2010.

    And civil service is now growing significantly thanks in part to additional work from Brexit.

    One of the successes in this area IMO has been gov.uk or govx whatever its called. UK govt websites generally very good, much better than US in my experience.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,909
    HYUFD said:

    Also, Corbyn acted as a cover, you see the Tories doing badly now but they've been doing virtually identical things even when Johnson was in charge. They just hated Corbyn more.

    2019 will come to be seen as an outlier. If you look at it in those terms, 2010, 2015, 2017 look far more logical of a measure of how popular the Tories actually are.

    Will the 2019 General Election have the same historical context for the Conservatives as the 1906 one had for the Liberals...?
    No, not unless Reform overtake the Tories as the main party of the right as Labour overtook the Liberals as the Conservatives main opposition back then
    What if the LDs became the official opposition (Not my view and unlikely but possible if the Tories really collapse). With the loss of exposure and funding and a much higher profile LD presence the Tories could get replaced that way. It would be odd that Labour replaced the Liberals if the LDs then replaced the Tories.
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    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,059

    Tories on 18%



    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    9m
    It Will Only Get Worse watch. Reform now only 5 points behind.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1766021883881812322

    Tories are headlining on immigration is the countries major problem, but we have failed to deal with it, and are divided internally on how to do so. As long as they do that they will surely continue to lose centre right to Labour and righty right to Refuk.
    I was thinking about that. Sunak seems intent on getting the Rwanda scheme in operation before any GE, presumably so that he can say: 'look, I've delivered this'.

    But there are at least two big risks in that approach:
    1. His plan gets bogged down in the HoL and/or the courts and fails to deliver.
    2. He get's it through, Rwanda flights start, but summer boat numbers fail to fall.

    If anything the latter is a bigger risk. The question for me is: are potential migrants/refugees who currently get suckered into taking huge risks and paying lots of money to traffickers going to be put off by a threat of ending up in Rwanda? I doubt it.
    I'm still waiting for Cameron to visit Rwanda and come back and tell us with a straight face that the scheme will work.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,276

    @SandyRentool was asking yesterday about the latest Jeremy Hunt newsreader slip. Social media has done its job and here it is:-
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1765734561407737974

    An easy mistake to make
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    Controversial idea: Kwasi Kwarteng was screwed over by Liz Truss and would not have presented any of her nutty ideas if he was in charge

    Not just a controversial idea, but also one that is utterly unsupported by evidence of any kind, and plainly wrong.
    I do not believe in any way, he would have implemented all of those nutty ideas in one go.
    What's your evidence?

    Kwarteng is an experienced politician with a very long association with Truss going back to their days on Greenwich Council. He was a strong supporter of Truss's leadership campaign and would have been aware quite some time before Truss entered Number 10 that he was her choice as Chancellor. When Tom Scholar was sacked almost immediately as Permanent Secretary, and the OBR sidelined, that wasn't a whim or done over his head - that was clearly planned out as part of an economic strategy (if one can give that name to such a dog's breakfast) ahead of Truss's election in the summer, as the race with Sunak had become a formality.

    Like most newly appointed Chancellors, he was in a strong position in his own right. He was no more prone to being pushed around than people like Brown or Osborne when then moved in next door to Blair and Cameron.

    As the mini Budget fiasco unravelled, far from seeking to pull it back, he doubled down by behaving with notable disdain towards the OBR and Bank of England - even if you think (without evidence) that the policy was dictated from next door, the behaviour wasn't. This was a man doing it because he fully believed it.

    When Truss fell, the men in grey suits didn't push her to stop bullying poor Kwasi and let him do things the way he wanted. They demanded, as a first step, that she simply replace him with one of their own - Hunt. That's because they were well aware that Kwarteng wasn't a hostage but one of the kidnappers.

    Your argument is nothing more than a Lady MacBeth fantasy.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,989
    I'd also quibble with the point that status in govt is about how many people you manage.

    Not so. Status is about how close you are to centre of power. Junior person at Treasury or Cabinet Office has way, way more status than someone managing 50 people at a job centre or 30 people at the rural payments agency in Reading.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,463
    Korea's gender wage gap worst among 33 OECD countries: report
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=370268
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    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,840
    Roger said:

    @SandyRentool was asking yesterday about the latest Jeremy Hunt newsreader slip. Social media has done its job and here it is:-
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1765734561407737974

    An easy mistake to make
    His parents did their best calling him Jeremy. They might as well have called him Eric and be done with it.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,398

    Roger said:

    A Cabinet Minister gratuitously libels an academic and then using an archaic convention gets the taxpayer to pay the £15,000 damages.

    The Leader of the House defends the Minister in Parliament by claiming that she is a person of integrity proven by the fact she had foregone £16,000 redundency for being fired after ONE day in Boris Johnson's Cabinet.

    The only surprise in today's People's Polling is that the Tories have managed 18%

    Meanwhile her partner and his family made serious coin out of Covid PPE contracts.
    If the PPE was up to spec and used then I have fewer issues. The ones who supplied defective or useless PPE need to be pursued relentlessly.
    It depends on what they were asked. Remember that there was an urgent, immediate need, and a worldwide demand - no, fight - for supplies. Demand had gone up

    Also remember that Labour frontbenchers stood up in parliament and asked why no-name suppliers were not being approached. That's how critical supply was. Any lead to getting PPE was being followed up.

    If we had gone through normal processes, we could have ended up with next to nothing. Instead, we went for anything we could get. The government ordered 30 billion items of PPE during Covid, and 25 billion were delivered.

    How much waste is forgivable in such a critical situation? Lots? None?

    https://healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2023/03/30/covid-ppe-media-fact-sheet/
    Up to a point but remember the VIP lane practically guaranteed cronyism, if not fraud, and that a minister resigned over the government's not taking even elementary precautions against fraud.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,628
    rkrkrk said:

    Good header generally, and agree on failure to pay decent rates for technical skills.

    Civil service has massively shed jobs at very junior grades already, at least in central govt where I used to work.

    The story of unions blocking change is a bit outdated tbh, they are largely irrelevant. They couldn't stop massive pension changes and 20% workforce reduction from 2010.

    And civil service is now growing significantly thanks in part to additional work from Brexit.

    One of the successes in this area IMO has been gov.uk or govx whatever its called. UK govt websites generally very good, much better than US in my experience.

    A major problem is fragmentation and empires. The US Government is worse for this, due to the system of political appointments to the permanent system - so you get politically minded people building empires.

    The reaction to the COVID dashboard is instructive - https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk took over and expanded on the idea to a limited extent.

    In many other areas of government, there was a furious reaction to the idea of presenting operational data in a public, easily read form.

    Just doing that across government would be a massive step forwards.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,463

    Roger said:

    A Cabinet Minister gratuitously libels an academic and then using an archaic convention gets the taxpayer to pay the £15,000 damages.

    The Leader of the House defends the Minister in Parliament by claiming that she is a person of integrity proven by the fact she had foregone £16,000 redundency for being fired after ONE day in Boris Johnson's Cabinet.

    The only surprise in today's People's Polling is that the Tories have managed 18%

    Meanwhile her partner and his family made serious coin out of Covid PPE contracts.
    If the PPE was up to spec and used then I have fewer issues. The ones who supplied defective or useless PPE need to be pursued relentlessly.
    It depends on what they were asked. Remember that there was an urgent, immediate need, and a worldwide demand - no, fight - for supplies. Demand had gone up

    Also remember that Labour frontbenchers stood up in parliament and asked why no-name suppliers were not being approached. That's how critical supply was. Any lead to getting PPE was being followed up.

    If we had gone through normal processes, we could have ended up with next to nothing. Instead, we went for anything we could get. The government ordered 30 billion items of PPE during Covid, and 25 billion were delivered.

    How much waste is forgivable in such a critical situation? Lots? None?

    https://healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2023/03/30/covid-ppe-media-fact-sheet/
    Up to a point but remember the VIP lane practically guaranteed cronyism, if not fraud, and that a minister resigned over the government's not taking even elementary precautions against fraud.
    At least one of the Donelan companies was unusual in that it was a genuine supplier of PPE pre-pandemic.
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,500

    Roger said:

    @SandyRentool was asking yesterday about the latest Jeremy Hunt newsreader slip. Social media has done its job and here it is:-
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1765734561407737974

    An easy mistake to make
    His parents did their best calling him Jeremy. They might as well have called him Eric and be done with it.
    Mike or Isaac would be worse still.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,559
    I know - it's a subsample - and subsamples are noisy and not properly weighted, but Labour only behind 33-32 in the 65+ age group in the latest YouGov poll.
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    PhilPhil Posts: 2,000
    eek said:

    Something is happening in the NHS… close relative rings GP last Friday at 3:30 with concern about skin lesion (has history of skin cancers)… is seen by GP at 17:15 the same day… is referred and seen by Dermatology Consultant at Lancaster Infirmary at 16:00 on Tuesday and is having skin cancer removed at 14:30 this Saturday… so, assuming it is not cancelled, seven days and 22 hours from start to finish… I told her that it’s to make her vote Conservative but she is sceptical…
    That sounds more like a combination of it’s a serious but treatable cancer and we are on top of our waiting list.

    The M-I-L is getting similar treatment at the moment the delays in that treatment have been because she was in hospital for something else earlier in the week

    There are pathways within the NHS that, once you’re on them, are quite impressively efficient & quick.

    IIRC Stroke treatment is another area that is very well organised, once you’ve been triaged onto it. Getting to that point in the first place is the problem - acute stroke patients being as dependent on access to ambulance services as everyone else is.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,874
    edited March 8

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    He will be pleased, yes. And I think you're right that if he'd somehow survived the Cons would still be heading for defeat but a smaller one.

    At the same time I think they had to can him. His character defects had become too obvious. What they didn't have to do however, and by doing it they finished themselves off, was replace him with the utterly risible Liz Truss.
    Liz Truss' main failure - and I admit it was a big one - was believing that she could buck the market.

    What's curious about it is how it could have happened. How could a senior Tory have believed that they could bend the debt markets to their will, that the debt market would accept limitless British government borrowing at a low interest rate of her choosing, and convinced the rest of the party that she would be successful in such an endeavour?

    I remember the sense of astonishment I felt during the debate where she stated she would simply borrow more to fund her tax cuts, and she would renegotiate the national debt to pay a lower interest rate. And then it turned out she was in earnest!

    What has happened that means she wasn't simply laughed out of the contest, that even now she is fêted as a darling of the right?
    She lives in her own bubble is my impression.

    But yes she's still a darling of the right. Even more so with some. Ironically I think this is to an extent precisely because of how she imploded. It was so short and spectacular - lending itself to "not given a chance" and "screwed by the deepstate" and "just think how great she could have been if she hadn't driven her silver porsche into that tree".
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    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,840

    rkrkrk said:

    Good header generally, and agree on failure to pay decent rates for technical skills.

    Civil service has massively shed jobs at very junior grades already, at least in central govt where I used to work.

    The story of unions blocking change is a bit outdated tbh, they are largely irrelevant. They couldn't stop massive pension changes and 20% workforce reduction from 2010.

    And civil service is now growing significantly thanks in part to additional work from Brexit.

    One of the successes in this area IMO has been gov.uk or govx whatever its called. UK govt websites generally very good, much better than US in my experience.

    A major problem is fragmentation and empires. The US Government is worse for this, due to the system of political appointments to the permanent system - so you get politically minded people building empires.

    The reaction to the COVID dashboard is instructive - https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk took over and expanded on the idea to a limited extent.

    In many other areas of government, there was a furious reaction to the idea of presenting operational data in a public, easily read form.

    Just doing that across government would be a massive step forwards.
    In the absence of any other live entertainment your daily dash to the Dashboard was a godsend. It is much missed. Perhaps there's some other vital national statistic that could be mined in a similar way? The hourly decline of Tory support in every middle English district would be equally interesting.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,628
    edited March 8

    rkrkrk said:

    Good header generally, and agree on failure to pay decent rates for technical skills.

    Civil service has massively shed jobs at very junior grades already, at least in central govt where I used to work.

    The story of unions blocking change is a bit outdated tbh, they are largely irrelevant. They couldn't stop massive pension changes and 20% workforce reduction from 2010.

    And civil service is now growing significantly thanks in part to additional work from Brexit.

    One of the successes in this area IMO has been gov.uk or govx whatever its called. UK govt websites generally very good, much better than US in my experience.

    A major problem is fragmentation and empires. The US Government is worse for this, due to the system of political appointments to the permanent system - so you get politically minded people building empires.

    The reaction to the COVID dashboard is instructive - https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk took over and expanded on the idea to a limited extent.

    In many other areas of government, there was a furious reaction to the idea of presenting operational data in a public, easily read form.

    Just doing that across government would be a massive step forwards.
    In the absence of any other live entertainment your daily dash to the Dashboard was a godsend. It is much missed. Perhaps there's some other vital national statistic that could be mined in a similar way? The hourly decline of Tory support in every middle English district would be equally interesting.
    After careful analysis, this Napoleon johnny looks like a cove whose out of luck -

    image
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,240
    edited March 8

    rkrkrk said:

    Good header generally, and agree on failure to pay decent rates for technical skills.

    Civil service has massively shed jobs at very junior grades already, at least in central govt where I used to work.

    The story of unions blocking change is a bit outdated tbh, they are largely irrelevant. They couldn't stop massive pension changes and 20% workforce reduction from 2010.

    And civil service is now growing significantly thanks in part to additional work from Brexit.

    One of the successes in this area IMO has been gov.uk or govx whatever its called. UK govt websites generally very good, much better than US in my experience.

    A major problem is fragmentation and empires. The US Government is worse for this, due to the system of political appointments to the permanent system - so you get politically minded people building empires.

    The reaction to the COVID dashboard is instructive - https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk took over and expanded on the idea to a limited extent.

    In many other areas of government, there was a furious reaction to the idea of presenting operational data in a public, easily read form.

    Just doing that across government would be a massive step forwards.
    The variants chart is interesting, shows how each new variant supplants the previous ones to extinction in short order. Current Covid iteration approaching ~ 100% Omicron JN.1
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,210
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Also, Corbyn acted as a cover, you see the Tories doing badly now but they've been doing virtually identical things even when Johnson was in charge. They just hated Corbyn more.

    2019 will come to be seen as an outlier. If you look at it in those terms, 2010, 2015, 2017 look far more logical of a measure of how popular the Tories actually are.

    Will the 2019 General Election have the same historical context for the Conservatives as the 1906 one had for the Liberals...?
    No, not unless Reform overtake the Tories as the main party of the right as Labour overtook the Liberals as the Conservatives main opposition back then
    What if the LDs became the official opposition (Not my view and unlikely but possible if the Tories really collapse). With the loss of exposure and funding and a much higher profile LD presence the Tories could get replaced that way. It would be odd that Labour replaced the Liberals if the LDs then replaced the Tories.
    They won't certainly not on vote share at most it would be a temporary second on seats like today's PP poll which has Reform just 5% behind the Tories on vote share splitting the right. However from that either Reform overtake the Tories as the main party on the right, the Tories see them off or the Tories and Reform merge so either way the LDs are not longer term going to be main opposition to Labour on their current 10 to 11%
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,874
    Nigelb said:

    ...

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    Do you not understand Johnson set the train wreck in motion? He let the brake off at the top of a 2/1 incline and jumped clear before it build up a head of steam.

    If your party dies (I doubt it will) Johnson administered the first toxic dose.
    I'm not sure it's isam's party; it's rather that Boris has always been isam's guy.

    I might be unfair lumping him in with them, but there are a number of people who voted for Boris, and would do so again, who don't give a fig for the Conservative Party.
    TBF, neither does Boris.
    Yes voting Boris not Tory. I think Brexit and Corbyn were bigger GE19 factors but that was definitely there in the mix. No other Con leader would have won such a big majority. Can't stand the guy but I have to give him that.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,559

    rkrkrk said:

    Good header generally, and agree on failure to pay decent rates for technical skills.

    Civil service has massively shed jobs at very junior grades already, at least in central govt where I used to work.

    The story of unions blocking change is a bit outdated tbh, they are largely irrelevant. They couldn't stop massive pension changes and 20% workforce reduction from 2010.

    And civil service is now growing significantly thanks in part to additional work from Brexit.

    One of the successes in this area IMO has been gov.uk or govx whatever its called. UK govt websites generally very good, much better than US in my experience.

    A major problem is fragmentation and empires. The US Government is worse for this, due to the system of political appointments to the permanent system - so you get politically minded people building empires.

    The reaction to the COVID dashboard is instructive - https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk took over and expanded on the idea to a limited extent.

    In many other areas of government, there was a furious reaction to the idea of presenting operational data in a public, easily read form.

    Just doing that across government would be a massive step forwards.
    In the absence of any other live entertainment your daily dash to the Dashboard was a godsend. It is much missed. Perhaps there's some other vital national statistic that could be mined in a similar way? The hourly decline of Tory support in every middle English district would be equally interesting.
    A daily updated MRP for the local elections would presumably be ruinously expensive, but good fun.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    Boris johnon is hugely unpopular. So I don't agree with your analysis here.
    He’s not unpopular with 2019 Tory voters, he’s the most popular choice as leader
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,446
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    He will be pleased, yes. And I think you're right that if he'd somehow survived the Cons would still be heading for defeat but a smaller one.

    At the same time I think they had to can him. His character defects had become too obvious. What they didn't have to do however, and by doing it they finished themselves off, was replace him with the utterly risible Liz Truss.
    Liz Truss' main failure - and I admit it was a big one - was believing that she could buck the market.

    What's curious about it is how it could have happened. How could a senior Tory have believed that they could bend the debt markets to their will, that the debt market would accept limitless British government borrowing at a low interest rate of her choosing, and convinced the rest of the party that she would be successful in such an endeavour?

    I remember the sense of astonishment I felt during the debate where she stated she would simply borrow more to fund her tax cuts, and she would renegotiate the national debt to pay a lower interest rate. And then it turned out she was in earnest!

    What has happened that means she wasn't simply laughed out of the contest, that even now she is fêted as a darling of the right?
    She lives in her own bubble is my impression.

    But yes she's still a darling of the right. Even more so with some. Ironically I think this is to an extent precisely because of how she imploded. It was so short and spectacular - lending itself to "not given a chance" and "screwed by the deepstate" and "just think how great she could have been if she hadn't driven her silver porsche into that tree".
    The right wing likes nothing better than a stabbed in the back myth.
    What I love about Truss is that she is clearly as mad as a box of frogs - but even she thought Brexit was a dumb idea.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Nigelb said:

    ...

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    Do you not understand Johnson set the train wreck in motion? He let the brake off at the top of a 2/1 incline and jumped clear before it build up a head of steam.

    If your party dies (I doubt it will) Johnson administered the first toxic dose.
    I'm not sure it's isam's party; it's rather that Boris has always been isam's guy.

    I might be unfair lumping him in with them, but there are a number of people who voted for Boris, and would do so again, who don't give a fig for the Conservative Party.
    TBF, neither does Boris.
    And there are a significant number of isams in the electorate and we see them in the Conservative to Reform switchers.

    But what we don't see, because they're less visible, are all the voters the Conservatives have held onto who would have left had BoJo remained PM. Because it wasn't just the parties. It was the lies in a context where you simply don't lie. It was Paterson. It was Pincher. And, had he stayed, there would likely have been other things.

    The Conservatives elevating Boris was a bit like communist countries doping their Olympic athletes. Short term performance boost, but you are left a shrivelled wreck a few years later.
    That might sound good to people who dislike him, but the truth is that Boris is by far the most popular choice as leader amongst 2019 Tories
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,909

    Roger said:

    @SandyRentool was asking yesterday about the latest Jeremy Hunt newsreader slip. Social media has done its job and here it is:-
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1765734561407737974

    An easy mistake to make
    His parents did their best calling him Jeremy. They might as well have called him Eric and be done with it.
    Mike or Isaac would be worse still.
    I'm sure some parents wouldn't work it out when naming their child. I knew both a Richard Head and a Richard Whittington. The first might not have been a thing when they named their child (I have no idea), but the second definitely was.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,917

    rkrkrk said:

    Good header generally, and agree on failure to pay decent rates for technical skills.

    Civil service has massively shed jobs at very junior grades already, at least in central govt where I used to work.

    The story of unions blocking change is a bit outdated tbh, they are largely irrelevant. They couldn't stop massive pension changes and 20% workforce reduction from 2010.

    And civil service is now growing significantly thanks in part to additional work from Brexit.

    One of the successes in this area IMO has been gov.uk or govx whatever its called. UK govt websites generally very good, much better than US in my experience.

    A major problem is fragmentation and empires. The US Government is worse for this, due to the system of political appointments to the permanent system - so you get politically minded people building empires.

    The reaction to the COVID dashboard is instructive - https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk took over and expanded on the idea to a limited extent.

    In many other areas of government, there was a furious reaction to the idea of presenting operational data in a public, easily read form.

    Just doing that across government would be a massive step forwards.
    Cummings was 100% right that data is the most important commodity to government.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 8

    Is this Parliament the largest turnaround for a party in history?

    Labour went from polling in the low 20s to polling in the high 40s, the Tories went from the 50s at one point to 18 in one poll.

    Has this ever happened before?

    Has the bed ever been shat this hard by a government? Well, I say A government but the mandate given by the electorate feels like its from a different century.
    To be fair, many including that lovely poster @CorrectHorseBattery, did say that it was inevitable with Johnson in charge that they would eventually fall hard. To much derision around the time of the Hartlepool by-election when people insisted Johnson would be in power for a decade and Starmer was at that point worse than Corbyn.

    My analysis has been quite consistent, I never believed the Tories were ever actually popular, I don't think they've been popular the entire time they've been in government. It's just that Labour have decided to be more unpopular. To me it isn't surprising that SKS is doing relatively well as he's the first non-unpopular leader they've chosen.

    If Labour had elected a better leader in 2010, they'd have been back into government years ago IMHO.
    That Horse Battery weirdo was claiming the red wall was safe when turnout was brisk in Putney on the last election day. He just always predicted Labour doing well because he was a leftie.
  • Options
    PhilPhil Posts: 2,000

    Roger said:

    A Cabinet Minister gratuitously libels an academic and then using an archaic convention gets the taxpayer to pay the £15,000 damages.

    The Leader of the House defends the Minister in Parliament by claiming that she is a person of integrity proven by the fact she had foregone £16,000 redundency for being fired after ONE day in Boris Johnson's Cabinet.

    The only surprise in today's People's Polling is that the Tories have managed 18%

    Meanwhile her partner and his family made serious coin out of Covid PPE contracts.
    If the PPE was up to spec and used then I have fewer issues. The ones who supplied defective or useless PPE need to be pursued relentlessly.
    It depends on what they were asked. Remember that there was an urgent, immediate need, and a worldwide demand - no, fight - for supplies. Demand had gone up

    Also remember that Labour frontbenchers stood up in parliament and asked why no-name suppliers were not being approached. That's how critical supply was. Any lead to getting PPE was being followed up.

    If we had gone through normal processes, we could have ended up with next to nothing. Instead, we went for anything we could get. The government ordered 30 billion items of PPE during Covid, and 25 billion were delivered.

    How much waste is forgivable in such a critical situation? Lots? None?

    https://healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2023/03/30/covid-ppe-media-fact-sheet/
    The problem with this interpretation of events is that actual UK suppliers of PPE were ignored whilst insiders with direct access to the PPE procurement process were gifted large contracts on the basis of a vague promise that they would be able to find some PPE.

    A lot of the latter turned out to be completely useless & has either ended up in landfill or burnt.

    I don’t particularly mind that fact that there was waste & error in this process - as you say, it was a national emergency & some waste is certainly an acceptable outcome. What I do mind is that insiders got to make huge profits from failing to deliver the PPE we needed whilst UK companies that could have supplied PPE but didn’t have that insider access were simply ignored.
  • Options
    TresTres Posts: 2,349

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    He will be pleased, yes. And I think you're right that if he'd somehow survived the Cons would still be heading for defeat but a smaller one.

    At the same time I think they had to can him. His character defects had become too obvious. What they didn't have to do however, and by doing it they finished themselves off, was replace him with the utterly risible Liz Truss.
    Liz Truss' main failure - and I admit it was a big one - was believing that she could buck the market.

    What's curious about it is how it could have happened. How could a senior Tory have believed that they could bend the debt markets to their will, that the debt market would accept limitless British government borrowing at a low interest rate of her choosing, and convinced the rest of the party that she would be successful in such an endeavour?

    I remember the sense of astonishment I felt during the debate where she stated she would simply borrow more to fund her tax cuts, and she would renegotiate the national debt to pay a lower interest rate. And then it turned out she was in earnest!

    What has happened that means she wasn't simply laughed out of the contest, that even now she is fêted as a darling of the right?
    Johnson threw out all the grown-ups from the party.
  • Options
    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,840
    edited March 8
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    He will be pleased, yes. And I think you're right that if he'd somehow survived the Cons would still be heading for defeat but a smaller one.

    At the same time I think they had to can him. His character defects had become too obvious. What they didn't have to do however, and by doing it they finished themselves off, was replace him with the utterly risible Liz Truss.
    Liz Truss' main failure - and I admit it was a big one - was believing that she could buck the market.

    What's curious about it is how it could have happened. How could a senior Tory have believed that they could bend the debt markets to their will, that the debt market would accept limitless British government borrowing at a low interest rate of her choosing, and convinced the rest of the party that she would be successful in such an endeavour?

    I remember the sense of astonishment I felt during the debate where she stated she would simply borrow more to fund her tax cuts, and she would renegotiate the national debt to pay a lower interest rate. And then it turned out she was in earnest!

    What has happened that means she wasn't simply laughed out of the contest, that even now she is fêted as a darling of the right?
    She lives in her own bubble is my impression.

    But yes she's still a darling of the right. Even more so with some. Ironically I think this is to an extent precisely because of how she imploded. It was so short and spectacular - lending itself to "not given a chance" and "screwed by the deepstate" and "just think how great she could have been if she hadn't driven her silver porsche into that tree".
    Her bubble is quite a large one, filled by people who believe the UK, freed from EU interference, would become another off-shore growth spot like Singapore, South Korea or Taiwan. Unfortunately this particular vein of Brexit required an equal and opposite contribution from anti-cosmopolitan Little Englanders to add up to 52% and, as predicted at the time, there was no consensus for anything after 2016. Notwithstanding the beguiling attraction of economic shock you can't make it happen if the overwhelming majority of people are against.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Nigelb said:

    ...

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    Do you not understand Johnson set the train wreck in motion? He let the brake off at the top of a 2/1 incline and jumped clear before it build up a head of steam.

    If your party dies (I doubt it will) Johnson administered the first toxic dose.
    I'm not sure it's isam's party; it's rather that Boris has always been isam's guy.

    I might be unfair lumping him in with them, but there are a number of people who voted for Boris, and would do so again, who don't give a fig for the Conservative Party.
    TBF, neither does Boris.
    I’ve only ever voted Tory once, they’re not my party at all and never have been. I still consider myself more of a Labour man. I only voted leave because I felt FOM was unfair on low paid workers whilst making exploitative bosses richer.

    Boris hasn’t always been ‘my guy’ he was just the one who put an end to the remain filibuster on accepting the referendum vote, so got credit for that
  • Options
    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    isam said:

    Is this Parliament the largest turnaround for a party in history?

    Labour went from polling in the low 20s to polling in the high 40s, the Tories went from the 50s at one point to 18 in one poll.

    Has this ever happened before?

    Has the bed ever been shat this hard by a government? Well, I say A government but the mandate given by the electorate feels like its from a different century.
    To be fair, many including that lovely poster @CorrectHorseBattery, did say that it was inevitable with Johnson in charge that they would eventually fall hard. To much derision around the time of the Hartlepool by-election when people insisted Johnson would be in power for a decade and Starmer was at that point worse than Corbyn.

    My analysis has been quite consistent, I never believed the Tories were ever actually popular, I don't think they've been popular the entire time they've been in government. It's just that Labour have decided to be more unpopular. To me it isn't surprising that SKS is doing relatively well as he's the first non-unpopular leader they've chosen.

    If Labour had elected a better leader in 2010, they'd have been back into government years ago IMHO.
    That Horse Battery weirdo was claiming the red wall was safe when turnout was brisk in Putney on the last election day. He just always predicted Labour doing well because he was a leftie.
    You have repeated this false claim many times.

    @CorrectHorseBattery did not say that Putney was evidence Labour would do well. He literally posted a Tweet that said turnout in Putney was high.

    As it happens he was right, Putney flipped.

    I am not sure what your vendetta against @CorrectHorseBattery is, when he doesn't post anymore, much to our sadness.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,909
    edited March 8
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Also, Corbyn acted as a cover, you see the Tories doing badly now but they've been doing virtually identical things even when Johnson was in charge. They just hated Corbyn more.

    2019 will come to be seen as an outlier. If you look at it in those terms, 2010, 2015, 2017 look far more logical of a measure of how popular the Tories actually are.

    Will the 2019 General Election have the same historical context for the Conservatives as the 1906 one had for the Liberals...?
    No, not unless Reform overtake the Tories as the main party of the right as Labour overtook the Liberals as the Conservatives main opposition back then
    What if the LDs became the official opposition (Not my view and unlikely but possible if the Tories really collapse). With the loss of exposure and funding and a much higher profile LD presence the Tories could get replaced that way. It would be odd that Labour replaced the Liberals if the LDs then replaced the Tories.
    They won't certainly not on vote share at most it would be a temporary second on seats like today's PP poll which has Reform just 5% behind the Tories on vote share splitting the right. However from that either Reform overtake the Tories as the main party on the right, the Tories see them off or the Tories and Reform merge so either way the LDs are not longer term going to be main opposition to Labour on their current 10 to 11%
    Well as I said I don't expect it to happen. I have posted here several times recently that with them on circ 10% I don't expect them to win a huge number of Tory seats just the obvious targets, BUT we are talking hypotheticals AND if by a freak the LDs do become the official opposition their poll rating will rocket and the Tories will slump further. Then we have 4 - 5 years of them being in opposition and getting a high profile for a change and the Tories in fighting.

    Under those circumstances I would expect them to replace the Tories.

    If they do become the official opposition you can't expect their poll rating to stay at 10%. It just won't.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,628
    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Good header generally, and agree on failure to pay decent rates for technical skills.

    Civil service has massively shed jobs at very junior grades already, at least in central govt where I used to work.

    The story of unions blocking change is a bit outdated tbh, they are largely irrelevant. They couldn't stop massive pension changes and 20% workforce reduction from 2010.

    And civil service is now growing significantly thanks in part to additional work from Brexit.

    One of the successes in this area IMO has been gov.uk or govx whatever its called. UK govt websites generally very good, much better than US in my experience.

    A major problem is fragmentation and empires. The US Government is worse for this, due to the system of political appointments to the permanent system - so you get politically minded people building empires.

    The reaction to the COVID dashboard is instructive - https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk took over and expanded on the idea to a limited extent.

    In many other areas of government, there was a furious reaction to the idea of presenting operational data in a public, easily read form.

    Just doing that across government would be a massive step forwards.
    Cummings was 100% right that data is the most important commodity to government.
    Cummings seems to be right on the problems, and always wrong on the solutions.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,077
    A nice run there by Outlaw in the medium novice agility
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,874

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    He will be pleased, yes. And I think you're right that if he'd somehow survived the Cons would still be heading for defeat but a smaller one.

    At the same time I think they had to can him. His character defects had become too obvious. What they didn't have to do however, and by doing it they finished themselves off, was replace him with the utterly risible Liz Truss.
    Liz Truss' main failure - and I admit it was a big one - was believing that she could buck the market.

    What's curious about it is how it could have happened. How could a senior Tory have believed that they could bend the debt markets to their will, that the debt market would accept limitless British government borrowing at a low interest rate of her choosing, and convinced the rest of the party that she would be successful in such an endeavour?

    I remember the sense of astonishment I felt during the debate where she stated she would simply borrow more to fund her tax cuts, and she would renegotiate the national debt to pay a lower interest rate. And then it turned out she was in earnest!

    What has happened that means she wasn't simply laughed out of the contest, that even now she is fêted as a darling of the right?
    She lives in her own bubble is my impression.

    But yes she's still a darling of the right. Even more so with some. Ironically I think this is to an extent precisely because of how she imploded. It was so short and spectacular - lending itself to "not given a chance" and "screwed by the deepstate" and "just think how great she could have been if she hadn't driven her silver porsche into that tree".
    Her bubble is quite a large one, filled by people who believe the UK, freed from EU interference, would become another off-shore growth spot like Singapore, South Korea or Taiwan. Unfortunately this particular vein of Brexit required an equal and opposite contribution from anti-cosmopolitan Little Englanders to add up to 52% and, as predicted at the time, there was no consensus for anything after 2016. Notwithstanding the beguiling attraction of economic shock you can't make it happen if the overwhelming majority of people are against.
    That's why Brexit is such a waste of time. It allows a radical lurch to either left or right but there's no popular support for either.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,748

    Roger said:

    A Cabinet Minister gratuitously libels an academic and then using an archaic convention gets the taxpayer to pay the £15,000 damages.

    The Leader of the House defends the Minister in Parliament by claiming that she is a person of integrity proven by the fact she had foregone £16,000 redundency for being fired after ONE day in Boris Johnson's Cabinet.

    The only surprise in today's People's Polling is that the Tories have managed 18%

    Meanwhile her partner and his family made serious coin out of Covid PPE contracts.
    If the PPE was up to spec and used then I have fewer issues. The ones who supplied defective or useless PPE need to be pursued relentlessly.
    It depends on what they were asked. Remember that there was an urgent, immediate need, and a worldwide demand - no, fight - for supplies. Demand had gone up

    Also remember that Labour frontbenchers stood up in parliament and asked why no-name suppliers were not being approached. That's how critical supply was. Any lead to getting PPE was being followed up.

    If we had gone through normal processes, we could have ended up with next to nothing. Instead, we went for anything we could get. The government ordered 30 billion items of PPE during Covid, and 25 billion were delivered.

    How much waste is forgivable in such a critical situation? Lots? None?

    https://healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2023/03/30/covid-ppe-media-fact-sheet/
    Up to a point but remember the VIP lane practically guaranteed cronyism, if not fraud, and that a minister resigned over the government's not taking even elementary precautions against fraud.
    What system do you think would have guaranteed 'better' (*) results, and how much fraud-checking do you expect in that environment?

    Trader: "I can get hold of 1 million pieces of PPE, guv."
    Government: "Cool. How much?"
    Trader: "£2 a piece."
    Government: "We don't know who you are."
    Trader: "I'll need cash in advance."
    Government: "(nervously): okay. We'll need to check samples."
    Trader: "I can go elsewhere, you know..."

    Now, that Trader is in the ultimate seller's market. If you delay, you may lose the opportunity as they will sell to someone else. Or you can offer them £3 a piece and 'waste' money - and might still not get what you wanted.

    Governments are simply not capable of doing quick, mass procurement at this sort of scale and immediacy. I can see some sense in the VIP Lane system to attempt to separate the what from the chaff - the question then becomes whether it was well-run.

    Labour must be really, really thankful that they were not in charge during Covid...

    (*) 'Better', for me, being getting more PPE of suitable quality for less money?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,240
    IanB2 said:

    A nice run there by Outlaw in the medium novice agility

    Is there a youtube channel or some such for this wooftastic event ?
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,500

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Good header generally, and agree on failure to pay decent rates for technical skills.

    Civil service has massively shed jobs at very junior grades already, at least in central govt where I used to work.

    The story of unions blocking change is a bit outdated tbh, they are largely irrelevant. They couldn't stop massive pension changes and 20% workforce reduction from 2010.

    And civil service is now growing significantly thanks in part to additional work from Brexit.

    One of the successes in this area IMO has been gov.uk or govx whatever its called. UK govt websites generally very good, much better than US in my experience.

    A major problem is fragmentation and empires. The US Government is worse for this, due to the system of political appointments to the permanent system - so you get politically minded people building empires.

    The reaction to the COVID dashboard is instructive - https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk took over and expanded on the idea to a limited extent.

    In many other areas of government, there was a furious reaction to the idea of presenting operational data in a public, easily read form.

    Just doing that across government would be a massive step forwards.
    Cummings was 100% right that data is the most important commodity to government.
    Cummings seems to be right on the problems, and always wrong on the solutions.
    Most of us, and most politicians, are right on the problems, it is fairly trivial.

    It is much harder to know the right solutions.

    And even harder still to implement them.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Is this Parliament the largest turnaround for a party in history?

    Labour went from polling in the low 20s to polling in the high 40s, the Tories went from the 50s at one point to 18 in one poll.

    Has this ever happened before?

    Has the bed ever been shat this hard by a government? Well, I say A government but the mandate given by the electorate feels like its from a different century.
    To be fair, many including that lovely poster @CorrectHorseBattery, did say that it was inevitable with Johnson in charge that they would eventually fall hard. To much derision around the time of the Hartlepool by-election when people insisted Johnson would be in power for a decade and Starmer was at that point worse than Corbyn.

    My analysis has been quite consistent, I never believed the Tories were ever actually popular, I don't think they've been popular the entire time they've been in government. It's just that Labour have decided to be more unpopular. To me it isn't surprising that SKS is doing relatively well as he's the first non-unpopular leader they've chosen.

    If Labour had elected a better leader in 2010, they'd have been back into government years ago IMHO.
    That Horse Battery weirdo was claiming the red wall was safe when turnout was brisk in Putney on the last election day. He just always predicted Labour doing well because he was a leftie.
    You have repeated this false claim many times.

    @CorrectHorseBattery did not say that Putney was evidence Labour would do well. He literally posted a Tweet that said turnout in Putney was high.

    As it happens he was right, Putney flipped.

    I am not sure what your vendetta against @CorrectHorseBattery is, when he doesn't post anymore, much to our sadness.
    It’s not a false claim, the oddball said it
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,874
    Nigelb said:

    Korea's gender wage gap worst among 33 OECD countries: report
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=370268

    Perhaps a cunning ruse to up that 0.7 birthrate by encouraging women to have babies instead of jobs.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,221
    On the People Polling figures today, when Baxtered the Tories seem to retain about 17 seats in England. I am just starting to wonder whether my prediction of NoM is starting to be out of reach.

    Sunak remains 7/1 (Hills) to be PM after the next GE. Can anyone see the rationale of this? He ceases to be be PM if the Tories lose 50-60 seats (if not ousted before the GE anyway) - and to do as well as that is about a 33/1 shot.
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,059
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Also, Corbyn acted as a cover, you see the Tories doing badly now but they've been doing virtually identical things even when Johnson was in charge. They just hated Corbyn more.

    2019 will come to be seen as an outlier. If you look at it in those terms, 2010, 2015, 2017 look far more logical of a measure of how popular the Tories actually are.

    Will the 2019 General Election have the same historical context for the Conservatives as the 1906 one had for the Liberals...?
    No, not unless Reform overtake the Tories as the main party of the right as Labour overtook the Liberals as the Conservatives main opposition back then
    What if the LDs became the official opposition (Not my view and unlikely but possible if the Tories really collapse). With the loss of exposure and funding and a much higher profile LD presence the Tories could get replaced that way. It would be odd that Labour replaced the Liberals if the LDs then replaced the Tories.
    They won't certainly not on vote share at most it would be a temporary second on seats like today's PP poll which has Reform just 5% behind the Tories on vote share splitting the right. However from that either Reform overtake the Tories as the main party on the right, the Tories see them off or the Tories and Reform merge so either way the LDs are not longer term going to be main opposition to Labour on their current 10 to 11%
    Well as I said I don't expect it to happen. I have posted here several times recently that with them on circ 10% I don't expect them to win a huge number of Tory seats just the obvious targets, BUT we are talking hypotheticals AND if by a freak the LDs do become the official opposition their poll rating will rocket and the Tories will slump further. Then we have 4 - 5 years of them being in opposition and getting a high profile for a change and the Tories in fighting.

    Under those circumstances I would expect them to replace the Tories.

    If they do become the official opposition you can't expect their poll rating to stay at 10%. It just won't.
    They would get a boost just by finishing third in seats, ahead of the SNP, and getting 2 questions a week at PMQs.
    Of course, the SNP becoming the offical opposition would be a whole new kettle of ball games.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,463
    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    ...

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    Do you not understand Johnson set the train wreck in motion? He let the brake off at the top of a 2/1 incline and jumped clear before it build up a head of steam.

    If your party dies (I doubt it will) Johnson administered the first toxic dose.
    I'm not sure it's isam's party; it's rather that Boris has always been isam's guy.

    I might be unfair lumping him in with them, but there are a number of people who voted for Boris, and would do so again, who don't give a fig for the Conservative Party.
    TBF, neither does Boris.
    I’ve only ever voted Tory once, they’re not my party at all and never have been. I still consider myself more of a Labour man. I only voted leave because I felt FOM was unfair on low paid workers whilst making exploitative bosses richer.

    Boris hasn’t always been ‘my guy’ he was just the one who put an end to the remain filibuster on accepting the referendum vote, so got credit for that
    Fair clarifications.
    But it's also fair to note that you remain his strongest advocate on PB.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,379
    kjh said:

    Roger said:

    @SandyRentool was asking yesterday about the latest Jeremy Hunt newsreader slip. Social media has done its job and here it is:-
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1765734561407737974

    An easy mistake to make
    His parents did their best calling him Jeremy. They might as well have called him Eric and be done with it.
    Mike or Isaac would be worse still.
    I'm sure some parents wouldn't work it out when naming their child. I knew both a Richard Head and a Richard Whittington. The first might not have been a thing when they named their child (I have no idea), but the second definitely was.
    Neville Neville (Gary and Phil's dad) always baffles me.

    What would you name your son Neville when his surname is Neville?

    It is akin to Sir Keith Joseph naming his son Joseph (which he didn't); or Diane James xMEP naming her son James.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,240
    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, three quick wickets there, maybe England can start their second innings only 250 behind.

    India demonstrating a Zeno's paradox approach in their quest for precisely a 250 lead.
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,268

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Good header generally, and agree on failure to pay decent rates for technical skills.

    Civil service has massively shed jobs at very junior grades already, at least in central govt where I used to work.

    The story of unions blocking change is a bit outdated tbh, they are largely irrelevant. They couldn't stop massive pension changes and 20% workforce reduction from 2010.

    And civil service is now growing significantly thanks in part to additional work from Brexit.

    One of the successes in this area IMO has been gov.uk or govx whatever its called. UK govt websites generally very good, much better than US in my experience.

    A major problem is fragmentation and empires. The US Government is worse for this, due to the system of political appointments to the permanent system - so you get politically minded people building empires.

    The reaction to the COVID dashboard is instructive - https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk took over and expanded on the idea to a limited extent.

    In many other areas of government, there was a furious reaction to the idea of presenting operational data in a public, easily read form.

    Just doing that across government would be a massive step forwards.
    Cummings was 100% right that data is the most important commodity to government.
    Cummings seems to be right on the problems, and always wrong on the solutions.
    Most of us, and most politicians, are right on the problems, it is fairly trivial.

    It is much harder to know the right solutions.

    And even harder still to implement them.
    The other very common case is that when someone *doesn't have* a solution to the problem, they just vehemently deny that the problem exists. Especially if it is something that for which the other side have a proposal that they don't like (and/or don't think would be effective). c.f. "immigration" and "climate change" to even-handedly pick two examples that wind up each side of the political spectrum.
  • Options
    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,862
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    I don't believe in guilt by association, but Jeez..

    Man of the people, totally normal person
    @RobertKennedyJr after being asked about flying on JEFFREY EPSTEIN'S plane:

    "So and I run into everybody in New York. I mean, I knew Harvey Weinstein, I knew Roger Ailes, I knew -- O.J. Simpson came to my house. Bill Cosby came to my house.”

    https://twitter.com/Lis_Smith/status/1765564202851139851

    "Ghislaine was always wonderful to me."

    No doubt.

    Addendum - Am starting to think, that RFKjr is gonna underperform Kanye West. Certainly appears less qualified.
    He's also a leading anti-vaxx scammer, who causes serious damage to public health, while making a very good living off it.

    Lower than a snake's belly.
    But the Epoch Times loves him...
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,221

    kjh said:

    Roger said:

    @SandyRentool was asking yesterday about the latest Jeremy Hunt newsreader slip. Social media has done its job and here it is:-
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1765734561407737974

    An easy mistake to make
    His parents did their best calling him Jeremy. They might as well have called him Eric and be done with it.
    Mike or Isaac would be worse still.
    I'm sure some parents wouldn't work it out when naming their child. I knew both a Richard Head and a Richard Whittington. The first might not have been a thing when they named their child (I have no idea), but the second definitely was.
    Neville Neville (Gary and Phil's dad) always baffles me.

    What would you name your son Neville when his surname is Neville?

    It is akin to Sir Keith Joseph naming his son Joseph (which he didn't); or Diane James xMEP naming her son James.
    It gets worse. A minor character in Richmal Crompton's William books is called Jameson Jameson.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,919

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Good header generally, and agree on failure to pay decent rates for technical skills.

    Civil service has massively shed jobs at very junior grades already, at least in central govt where I used to work.

    The story of unions blocking change is a bit outdated tbh, they are largely irrelevant. They couldn't stop massive pension changes and 20% workforce reduction from 2010.

    And civil service is now growing significantly thanks in part to additional work from Brexit.

    One of the successes in this area IMO has been gov.uk or govx whatever its called. UK govt websites generally very good, much better than US in my experience.

    A major problem is fragmentation and empires. The US Government is worse for this, due to the system of political appointments to the permanent system - so you get politically minded people building empires.

    The reaction to the COVID dashboard is instructive - https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk took over and expanded on the idea to a limited extent.

    In many other areas of government, there was a furious reaction to the idea of presenting operational data in a public, easily read form.

    Just doing that across government would be a massive step forwards.
    Cummings was 100% right that data is the most important commodity to government.
    Cummings seems to be right on the problems, and always wrong on the solutions.
    Big data shows you can easily end up wasting time collecting data you don’t need though.

    What you need is to know roughly what you want to know, identify how to easily collect that data and then use it.

    Cummings was one of those people who thinks data is useful in and of itself. With an infinite amount of time and monkeys I’m sure that’s true but in reality you are best thinking about what you need and how best to collect it
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,398

    kjh said:

    Roger said:

    @SandyRentool was asking yesterday about the latest Jeremy Hunt newsreader slip. Social media has done its job and here it is:-
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1765734561407737974

    An easy mistake to make
    His parents did their best calling him Jeremy. They might as well have called him Eric and be done with it.
    Mike or Isaac would be worse still.
    I'm sure some parents wouldn't work it out when naming their child. I knew both a Richard Head and a Richard Whittington. The first might not have been a thing when they named their child (I have no idea), but the second definitely was.
    Neville Neville (Gary and Phil's dad) always baffles me.

    What would you name your son Neville when his surname is Neville?

    It is akin to Sir Keith Joseph naming his son Joseph (which he didn't); or Diane James xMEP naming her son James.
    There was an East London headmaster named Jim Bond.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,500

    kjh said:

    Roger said:

    @SandyRentool was asking yesterday about the latest Jeremy Hunt newsreader slip. Social media has done its job and here it is:-
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1765734561407737974

    An easy mistake to make
    His parents did their best calling him Jeremy. They might as well have called him Eric and be done with it.
    Mike or Isaac would be worse still.
    I'm sure some parents wouldn't work it out when naming their child. I knew both a Richard Head and a Richard Whittington. The first might not have been a thing when they named their child (I have no idea), but the second definitely was.
    Neville Neville (Gary and Phil's dad) always baffles me.

    What would you name your son Neville when his surname is Neville?

    It is akin to Sir Keith Joseph naming his son Joseph (which he didn't); or Diane James xMEP naming her son James.
    You've lived a good life, enjoyed all the many benefits of the Neville name, why not super charge that for your kid?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,874

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Good header generally, and agree on failure to pay decent rates for technical skills.

    Civil service has massively shed jobs at very junior grades already, at least in central govt where I used to work.

    The story of unions blocking change is a bit outdated tbh, they are largely irrelevant. They couldn't stop massive pension changes and 20% workforce reduction from 2010.

    And civil service is now growing significantly thanks in part to additional work from Brexit.

    One of the successes in this area IMO has been gov.uk or govx whatever its called. UK govt websites generally very good, much better than US in my experience.

    A major problem is fragmentation and empires. The US Government is worse for this, due to the system of political appointments to the permanent system - so you get politically minded people building empires.

    The reaction to the COVID dashboard is instructive - https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk took over and expanded on the idea to a limited extent.

    In many other areas of government, there was a furious reaction to the idea of presenting operational data in a public, easily read form.

    Just doing that across government would be a massive step forwards.
    Cummings was 100% right that data is the most important commodity to government.
    Cummings seems to be right on the problems, and always wrong on the solutions.
    Ed Miliband was good on the problems. Sadly we don't know how he'd have been on solutions. Perhaps he's the greatest PM we nearly had. Then again perhaps he isn't.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 8
    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    ...

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    Do you not understand Johnson set the train wreck in motion? He let the brake off at the top of a 2/1 incline and jumped clear before it build up a head of steam.

    If your party dies (I doubt it will) Johnson administered the first toxic dose.
    I'm not sure it's isam's party; it's rather that Boris has always been isam's guy.

    I might be unfair lumping him in with them, but there are a number of people who voted for Boris, and would do so again, who don't give a fig for the Conservative Party.
    TBF, neither does Boris.
    I’ve only ever voted Tory once, they’re not my party at all and never have been. I still consider myself more of a Labour man. I only voted leave because I felt FOM was unfair on low paid workers whilst making exploitative bosses richer.

    Boris hasn’t always been ‘my guy’ he was just the one who put an end to the remain filibuster on accepting the referendum vote, so got credit for that
    Fair clarifications.
    But it's also fair to note that you remain his strongest advocate on PB.
    Yes, because I think, and the VI polls at face value, and the leader polls from 2019 Tories both back me up, that it was a monumental error to replace him. There was/is no one else who could possibly have held together the coalition of voters that he had in 2019, as we can see.

    I don’t think it would be much different if I hadn’t voted for him; I am a gambler for a living so I spend a lot of time analysing things. It seems obvious to me that getting rid of someone who has a habit of being written off only to win against the odds was crazy, wouldn’t matter if I liked or loathed him.

    I dislike Sir Keir and don’t want him to be PM, but if Labour got rid of him after a wobble in the polls it would be madness
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,268
    edited March 8

    kjh said:

    Roger said:

    @SandyRentool was asking yesterday about the latest Jeremy Hunt newsreader slip. Social media has done its job and here it is:-
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1765734561407737974

    An easy mistake to make
    His parents did their best calling him Jeremy. They might as well have called him Eric and be done with it.
    Mike or Isaac would be worse still.
    I'm sure some parents wouldn't work it out when naming their child. I knew both a Richard Head and a Richard Whittington. The first might not have been a thing when they named their child (I have no idea), but the second definitely was.
    Neville Neville (Gary and Phil's dad) always baffles me.

    What would you name your son Neville when his surname is Neville?

    It is akin to Sir Keith Joseph naming his son Joseph (which he didn't); or Diane James xMEP naming her son James.
    You've lived a good life, enjoyed all the many benefits of the Neville name, why not super charge that for your kid?
    Jimmy James seems quite prevalent. ETA: as a stage name
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,210
    edited March 8
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Also, Corbyn acted as a cover, you see the Tories doing badly now but they've been doing virtually identical things even when Johnson was in charge. They just hated Corbyn more.

    2019 will come to be seen as an outlier. If you look at it in those terms, 2010, 2015, 2017 look far more logical of a measure of how popular the Tories actually are.

    Will the 2019 General Election have the same historical context for the Conservatives as the 1906 one had for the Liberals...?
    No, not unless Reform overtake the Tories as the main party of the right as Labour overtook the Liberals as the Conservatives main opposition back then
    What if the LDs became the official opposition (Not my view and unlikely but possible if the Tories really collapse). With the loss of exposure and funding and a much higher profile LD presence the Tories could get replaced that way. It would be odd that Labour replaced the Liberals if the LDs then replaced the Tories.
    They won't certainly not on vote share at most it would be a temporary second on seats like today's PP poll which has Reform just 5% behind the Tories on vote share splitting the right. However from that either Reform overtake the Tories as the main party on the right, the Tories see them off or the Tories and Reform merge so either way the LDs are not longer term going to be main opposition to Labour on their current 10 to 11%
    Well as I said I don't expect it to happen. I have posted here several times recently that with them on circ 10% I don't expect them to win a huge number of Tory seats just the obvious targets, BUT we are talking hypotheticals AND if by a freak the LDs do become the official opposition their poll rating will rocket and the Tories will slump further. Then we have 4 - 5 years of them being in opposition and getting a high profile for a change and the Tories in fighting.

    Under those circumstances I would expect them to replace the Tories.

    If they do become the official opposition you can't expect their poll rating to stay at 10%. It just won't.
    They wouldn't, the current LD poll rating is about half the level they got under Charles Kennedy for instance. The traction for the LDs to maximise voteshare is as a social democrat party when Labour moves right under
    Blair or now Starmer. Not an Orange Book fiscally
    conservative party like now
    under Davey, indeed it is the
    Greens picking up the left of
    Starmer Labour vote now.

    Almost all polls still have the
    LDs well behind the Tories on
    seats and votes anyway. Only
    Goodwin's poll doesn't given
    his usual Reform ramping
    splitting the right but even he
    has the Tories on 18% and
    Reform on 13% still ahead of
    the LDs on 10% on voteshare
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,077
    edited March 8
    This jumping course is getting a lot disqualified this morning; just Bliss from Diss who finishes with five faults so far... but then a clear round from Fiametta.

    The last dog, Maggie smashes it, clear and three seconds faster, to win
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,925
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Also, Corbyn acted as a cover, you see the Tories doing badly now but they've been doing virtually identical things even when Johnson was in charge. They just hated Corbyn more.

    2019 will come to be seen as an outlier. If you look at it in those terms, 2010, 2015, 2017 look far more logical of a measure of how popular the Tories actually are.

    Will the 2019 General Election have the same historical context for the Conservatives as the 1906 one had for the Liberals...?
    No, not unless Reform overtake the Tories as the main party of the right as Labour overtook the Liberals as the Conservatives main opposition back then
    What if the LDs became the official opposition (Not my view and unlikely but possible if the Tories really collapse). With the loss of exposure and funding and a much higher profile LD presence the Tories could get replaced that way. It would be odd that Labour replaced the Liberals if the LDs then replaced the Tories.
    They won't certainly not on vote share at most it would be a temporary second on seats like today's PP poll which has Reform just 5% behind the Tories on vote share splitting the right. However from that either Reform overtake the Tories as the main party on the right, the Tories see them off or the Tories and Reform merge so either way the LDs are not longer term going to be main opposition to Labour on their current 10 to 11%
    Well as I said I don't expect it to happen. I have posted here several times recently that with them on circ 10% I don't expect them to win a huge number of Tory seats just the obvious targets, BUT we are talking hypotheticals AND if by a freak the LDs do become the official opposition their poll rating will rocket and the Tories will slump further. Then we have 4 - 5 years of them being in opposition and getting a high profile for a change and the Tories in fighting.

    Under those circumstances I would expect them to replace the Tories.

    If they do become the official opposition you can't expect their poll rating to stay at 10%. It just won't.
    Long term we will not have a situation where both main parties are ostensibly on the centre to centre-left. This was something oft predicted after 1997, and then, like now, it doesn’t make sense.

    There could be a freak anomaly after the next GE, if it really is a Tory catastrophe, but that won’t hold forever. The right will be back in some guise.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,500
    IanB2 said:

    This jumping course is getting a lot disqualified this morning; just Bliss from Diss who finishes with five faults so far.

    Sounds like a ruff day. I might be barking up the wrong tree but suggest the competitors need a bit more pawsitivity.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,874
    IanB2 said:

    A nice run there by Outlaw in the medium novice agility

    Pity no betfair markets on this. We can't profit from your niche expertise.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,398
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    Boris johnon is hugely unpopular. So I don't agree with your analysis here.
    He’s not unpopular with 2019 Tory voters, he’s the most popular choice as leader
    That is the analysis that got the party into this mess. It knew Boris's flaws but made a pact with the devil when electing him because polls showed he was most popular. No-one was surprised (although some were disappointed) when Boris's known defects combined to force him out and tank the party in the process.

    As I posted at the time, I lost money on that leadership race because I could not believe the party would choose Boris knowing he had most of Corbyn's flaws and a few of his own.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,339
    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    ...

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    Do you not understand Johnson set the train wreck in motion? He let the brake off at the top of a 2/1 incline and jumped clear before it build up a head of steam.

    If your party dies (I doubt it will) Johnson administered the first toxic dose.
    I'm not sure it's isam's party; it's rather that Boris has always been isam's guy.

    I might be unfair lumping him in with them, but there are a number of people who voted for Boris, and would do so again, who don't give a fig for the Conservative Party.
    TBF, neither does Boris.
    I’ve only ever voted Tory once, they’re not my party at all and never have been. I still consider myself more of a Labour man. I only voted leave because I felt FOM was unfair on low paid workers whilst making exploitative bosses richer.

    Boris hasn’t always been ‘my guy’ he was just the one who put an end to the remain filibuster on accepting the referendum vote, so got credit for that
    Fair clarifications.
    But it's also fair to note that you remain his strongest advocate on PB.
    Yes, because I think, and the VI polls at face value, and the leader polls from 2019 Tories both back me up, that it was a monumental error to replace him. There was/is no one else who could possibly have held together the coalition of voters that he had in 2019, as we can see.

    I don’t think it would be much different if I hadn’t voted for him; I am a gambler for a living so I spend a lot of time analysing things. It seems obvious to me that getting rid of someone who has a habit of being written off only to win against the odds was crazy, wouldn’t matter if I liked or loathed him.

    I dislike Sir Keir and don’t want him to be PM, but if Labour got rid of him after a wobble in the polls it would be madness
    Is there anything Boris could do which would cause you to say "I like your ideas, I understand your popularity, but a party leader or Prime Minister just can't behave like that, so with regret you're fired"?

    My impression (and my last vote for him was 2012 and the prorogation fiasco was when he finally crossed my line) is that Conservative MPs were willing to swallow a lot, but Pincher was the last straw.

    How would you feel if someone knowingly made a sex pest your line manager?
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,962
    To complete the results of last night's local elections: we had a LD gain in Devon and a Lab gain in Bridgend ( because PC did not defend their seat).
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,561

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Also, Corbyn acted as a cover, you see the Tories doing badly now but they've been doing virtually identical things even when Johnson was in charge. They just hated Corbyn more.

    2019 will come to be seen as an outlier. If you look at it in those terms, 2010, 2015, 2017 look far more logical of a measure of how popular the Tories actually are.

    Will the 2019 General Election have the same historical context for the Conservatives as the 1906 one had for the Liberals...?
    No, not unless Reform overtake the Tories as the main party of the right as Labour overtook the Liberals as the Conservatives main opposition back then
    What if the LDs became the official opposition (Not my view and unlikely but possible if the Tories really collapse). With the loss of exposure and funding and a much higher profile LD presence the Tories could get replaced that way. It would be odd that Labour replaced the Liberals if the LDs then replaced the Tories.
    They won't certainly not on vote share at most it would be a temporary second on seats like today's PP poll which has Reform just 5% behind the Tories on vote share splitting the right. However from that either Reform overtake the Tories as the main party on the right, the Tories see them off or the Tories and Reform merge so either way the LDs are not longer term going to be main opposition to Labour on their current 10 to 11%
    Well as I said I don't expect it to happen. I have posted here several times recently that with them on circ 10% I don't expect them to win a huge number of Tory seats just the obvious targets, BUT we are talking hypotheticals AND if by a freak the LDs do become the official opposition their poll rating will rocket and the Tories will slump further. Then we have 4 - 5 years of them being in opposition and getting a high profile for a change and the Tories in fighting.

    Under those circumstances I would expect them to replace the Tories.

    If they do become the official opposition you can't expect their poll rating to stay at 10%. It just won't.
    Long term we will not have a situation where both main parties are ostensibly on the centre to centre-left. This was something oft predicted after 1997, and then, like now, it doesn’t make sense.

    There could be a freak anomaly after the next GE, if it really is a Tory catastrophe, but that won’t hold forever. The right will be back in some guise.
    Adjacent to that - listening to the Biden speech he seemed to be putting forward a very European just-left-of-centre line around a lot of issues.

    Interesting.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,874

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    Boris johnon is hugely unpopular. So I don't agree with your analysis here.
    He’s not unpopular with 2019 Tory voters, he’s the most popular choice as leader
    That is the analysis that got the party into this mess. It knew Boris's flaws but made a pact with the devil when electing him because polls showed he was most popular. No-one was surprised (although some were disappointed) when Boris's known defects combined to force him out and tank the party in the process.

    As I posted at the time, I lost money on that leadership race because I could not believe the party would choose Boris knowing he had most of Corbyn's flaws and a few of his own.
    But they did get that big GE win. In that sense he delivered his side of the shoddy bargain.

    I quite like Stuart's analogy of doping to win followed by ruined health.
  • Options
    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,840
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    He will be pleased, yes. And I think you're right that if he'd somehow survived the Cons would still be heading for defeat but a smaller one.

    At the same time I think they had to can him. His character defects had become too obvious. What they didn't have to do however, and by doing it they finished themselves off, was replace him with the utterly risible Liz Truss.
    Liz Truss' main failure - and I admit it was a big one - was believing that she could buck the market.

    What's curious about it is how it could have happened. How could a senior Tory have believed that they could bend the debt markets to their will, that the debt market would accept limitless British government borrowing at a low interest rate of her choosing, and convinced the rest of the party that she would be successful in such an endeavour?

    I remember the sense of astonishment I felt during the debate where she stated she would simply borrow more to fund her tax cuts, and she would renegotiate the national debt to pay a lower interest rate. And then it turned out she was in earnest!

    What has happened that means she wasn't simply laughed out of the contest, that even now she is fêted as a darling of the right?
    She lives in her own bubble is my impression.

    But yes she's still a darling of the right. Even more so with some. Ironically I think this is to an extent precisely because of how she imploded. It was so short and spectacular - lending itself to "not given a chance" and "screwed by the deepstate" and "just think how great she could have been if she hadn't driven her silver porsche into that tree".
    Her bubble is quite a large one, filled by people who believe the UK, freed from EU interference, would become another off-shore growth spot like Singapore, South Korea or Taiwan. Unfortunately this particular vein of Brexit required an equal and opposite contribution from anti-cosmopolitan Little Englanders to add up to 52% and, as predicted at the time, there was no consensus for anything after 2016. Notwithstanding the beguiling attraction of economic shock you can't make it happen if the overwhelming majority of people are against.
    That's why Brexit is such a waste of time. It allows a radical lurch to either left or right but there's no popular support for either.
    I was ready to swing into action. The surveyor's report said there's coal under our land so my modest post-Brexit proposal was to dig some up, pile it against the greenhouse wall and grow bendy bananas free of EU interference - the carbon from the coal to be offset by minimised food miles. I had a slogan ready to roll ('If it's bent it's got to be British') and a mildly suggestive logo that I may confidently leave to the imagination. All I needed was foreign investment but, alas, it never materialised. We just don't have enough entrepreneurial flair to take advantage of Brexit and those damned foreigners are too sceptical.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,561
    edited March 8
    Good morning everyone, and thank-you for the header.

    My noticings this morning:

    1 - Mr Chump has lost another legal action, which may involve him paying $1m in legal fees. He lost it in the UK; his case against Orbis was ruled "bound to fail".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68499543

    (He has also been told to stump up the full amount to be allowed to Appeal his fraud verdicts, in accordance with NY law.)

    2 - 'Cillian Murphy would do a magnificent job as James Bond'

    That sounds like quite a good suggestion, potentially a more 2025 type of evil seeming than Daniel Craig.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-68508858
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,116
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    Boris johnon is hugely unpopular. So I don't agree with your analysis here.
    He’s not unpopular with 2019 Tory voters, he’s the most popular choice as leader
    The Tory party isn't particularly popular with 2019 Tory votes, hence their problems. Is Johnson reclaimed his previous popularity with those previous voters while the Tory party has lost theirs?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,874
    mwadams said:

    kjh said:

    Roger said:

    @SandyRentool was asking yesterday about the latest Jeremy Hunt newsreader slip. Social media has done its job and here it is:-
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1765734561407737974

    An easy mistake to make
    His parents did their best calling him Jeremy. They might as well have called him Eric and be done with it.
    Mike or Isaac would be worse still.
    I'm sure some parents wouldn't work it out when naming their child. I knew both a Richard Head and a Richard Whittington. The first might not have been a thing when they named their child (I have no idea), but the second definitely was.
    Neville Neville (Gary and Phil's dad) always baffles me.

    What would you name your son Neville when his surname is Neville?

    It is akin to Sir Keith Joseph naming his son Joseph (which he didn't); or Diane James xMEP naming her son James.
    You've lived a good life, enjoyed all the many benefits of the Neville name, why not super charge that for your kid?
    Jimmy James seems quite prevalent. ETA: as a stage name
    There was that quintessential figure of 1970s asset stripping capitalism, Roland "Tiny" Rowland. The double name added to his shady allure.
  • Options
    northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,588
    algarkirk said:

    kjh said:

    Roger said:

    @SandyRentool was asking yesterday about the latest Jeremy Hunt newsreader slip. Social media has done its job and here it is:-
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1765734561407737974

    An easy mistake to make
    His parents did their best calling him Jeremy. They might as well have called him Eric and be done with it.
    Mike or Isaac would be worse still.
    I'm sure some parents wouldn't work it out when naming their child. I knew both a Richard Head and a Richard Whittington. The first might not have been a thing when they named their child (I have no idea), but the second definitely was.
    Neville Neville (Gary and Phil's dad) always baffles me.

    What would you name your son Neville when his surname is Neville?

    It is akin to Sir Keith Joseph naming his son Joseph (which he didn't); or Diane James xMEP naming her son James.
    It gets worse. A minor character in Richmal Crompton's William books is called Jameson Jameson.
    A problem that is compounded by military rank for Catch 22’s Major Major Major Major: ‘named "Major Major Major" by his father, as a joke – passing up such lesser possibilities as "Drum Major, Minor Major, Sergeant Major, or C Sharp Major" (thanks wiki).
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,794
    FF43 said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    Boris johnon is hugely unpopular. So I don't agree with your analysis here.
    He’s not unpopular with 2019 Tory voters, he’s the most popular choice as leader
    The Tory party isn't particularly popular with 2019 Tory votes, hence their problems. Is Johnson reclaimed his previous popularity with those previous voters while the Tory party has lost theirs?
    Yes. That's spot on with regard to the 2019 Conservative Party voters that I know.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,748
    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    ...

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    Do you not understand Johnson set the train wreck in motion? He let the brake off at the top of a 2/1 incline and jumped clear before it build up a head of steam.

    If your party dies (I doubt it will) Johnson administered the first toxic dose.
    I'm not sure it's isam's party; it's rather that Boris has always been isam's guy.

    I might be unfair lumping him in with them, but there are a number of people who voted for Boris, and would do so again, who don't give a fig for the Conservative Party.
    TBF, neither does Boris.
    I’ve only ever voted Tory once, they’re not my party at all and never have been. I still consider myself more of a Labour man. I only voted leave because I felt FOM was unfair on low paid workers whilst making exploitative bosses richer.

    Boris hasn’t always been ‘my guy’ he was just the one who put an end to the remain filibuster on accepting the referendum vote, so got credit for that
    Fair clarifications.
    But it's also fair to note that you remain his strongest advocate on PB.
    Yes, because I think, and the VI polls at face value, and the leader polls from 2019 Tories both back me up, that it was a monumental error to replace him. There was/is no one else who could possibly have held together the coalition of voters that he had in 2019, as we can see.

    I don’t think it would be much different if I hadn’t voted for him; I am a gambler for a living so I spend a lot of time analysing things. It seems obvious to me that getting rid of someone who has a habit of being written off only to win against the odds was crazy, wouldn’t matter if I liked or loathed him.

    I dislike Sir Keir and don’t want him to be PM, but if Labour got rid of him after a wobble in the polls it would be madness
    " There was/is no one else who could possibly have held together the coalition of voters that he had in 2019, as we can see."

    IMV the problem with that argument is that it assumes that Boris's actions in 2020-2022 did not destroy his ability to hold together that coalition. And even if it did until the point he was thrown out, why do you think he would not have done other stupid stuff that destroyed that coalition since then?

    I would say this, as I'm on record saying that whilst I quite like Boris, he would make a terrible PM. But his fall was destined from well before he became PM. No-one 'got' him; he was a victim of his own character.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,116
    edited March 8
    FF43 said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    Boris johnon is hugely unpopular. So I don't agree with your analysis here.
    He’s not unpopular with 2019 Tory voters, he’s the most popular choice as leader
    The Tory party isn't particularly popular with 2019 Tory votes, hence their problems. Is Johnson reclaimed his previous popularity with those previous voters while the Tory party has lost theirs?
    Seems Johnson is slightly more popular with the electorate at large than the Tory party. That's not saying much, but he might be their least worst choice from an electorability PoV. He was a dismal prime minister, which is more important to me, but that's not what we're discussing.

    https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/popularity/conservative-politicians/all
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,463
    .
    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    ...

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    Do you not understand Johnson set the train wreck in motion? He let the brake off at the top of a 2/1 incline and jumped clear before it build up a head of steam.

    If your party dies (I doubt it will) Johnson administered the first toxic dose.
    I'm not sure it's isam's party; it's rather that Boris has always been isam's guy.

    I might be unfair lumping him in with them, but there are a number of people who voted for Boris, and would do so again, who don't give a fig for the Conservative Party.
    TBF, neither does Boris.
    I’ve only ever voted Tory once, they’re not my party at all and never have been. I still consider myself more of a Labour man. I only voted leave because I felt FOM was unfair on low paid workers whilst making exploitative bosses richer.

    Boris hasn’t always been ‘my guy’ he was just the one who put an end to the remain filibuster on accepting the referendum vote, so got credit for that
    Fair clarifications.
    But it's also fair to note that you remain his strongest advocate on PB.
    Yes, because I think, and the VI polls at face value, and the leader polls from 2019 Tories both back me up, that it was a monumental error to replace him. There was/is no one else who could possibly have held together the coalition of voters that he had in 2019, as we can see.

    I don’t think it would be much different if I hadn’t voted for him; I am a gambler for a living so I spend a lot of time analysing things. It seems obvious to me that getting rid of someone who has a habit of being written off only to win against the odds was crazy, wouldn’t matter if I liked or loathed him.

    I dislike Sir Keir and don’t want him to be PM, but if Labour got rid of him after a wobble in the polls it would be madness
    I think you're wrong in minimizing the manifold problems that would have ensued from retaining Boris as leader.
    But a fair response, and we'll have to agree to disagree.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,500
    FF43 said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    Boris johnon is hugely unpopular. So I don't agree with your analysis here.
    He’s not unpopular with 2019 Tory voters, he’s the most popular choice as leader
    The Tory party isn't particularly popular with 2019 Tory votes, hence their problems. Is Johnson reclaimed his previous popularity with those previous voters while the Tory party has lost theirs?
    What would a government have done to retain popularity with 2019 voters given it was a coalition of Singapore on Thames free marketeers and protectionists wanting to reduce immigration, backed up by traditonal conservatives in the middle?

    Obviously they have made it much worse through their idiocity but I suspect a significant loss in support was inevitable, especially once the economy started sinking.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,463
    kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    Roger said:

    @SandyRentool was asking yesterday about the latest Jeremy Hunt newsreader slip. Social media has done its job and here it is:-
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1765734561407737974

    An easy mistake to make
    His parents did their best calling him Jeremy. They might as well have called him Eric and be done with it.
    Mike or Isaac would be worse still.
    I'm sure some parents wouldn't work it out when naming their child. I knew both a Richard Head and a Richard Whittington. The first might not have been a thing when they named their child (I have no idea), but the second definitely was.
    Neville Neville (Gary and Phil's dad) always baffles me.

    What would you name your son Neville when his surname is Neville?

    It is akin to Sir Keith Joseph naming his son Joseph (which he didn't); or Diane James xMEP naming her son James.
    I picture him as a small child coming back from playing in the muddy garden. Mother not too pleased.

    "Neville Neville, your face is a mess!"
    Yes, but "Hot tramp, I love you so!" is somewhat less appropriate.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,730
    edited March 8
    kinabalu said:

    mwadams said:

    kjh said:

    Roger said:

    @SandyRentool was asking yesterday about the latest Jeremy Hunt newsreader slip. Social media has done its job and here it is:-
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1765734561407737974

    An easy mistake to make
    His parents did their best calling him Jeremy. They might as well have called him Eric and be done with it.
    Mike or Isaac would be worse still.
    I'm sure some parents wouldn't work it out when naming their child. I knew both a Richard Head and a Richard Whittington. The first might not have been a thing when they named their child (I have no idea), but the second definitely was.
    Neville Neville (Gary and Phil's dad) always baffles me.

    What would you name your son Neville when his surname is Neville?

    It is akin to Sir Keith Joseph naming his son Joseph (which he didn't); or Diane James xMEP naming her son James.
    You've lived a good life, enjoyed all the many benefits of the Neville name, why not super charge that for your kid?
    Jimmy James seems quite prevalent. ETA: as a stage name
    There was that quintessential figure of 1970s asset stripping capitalism, Roland "Tiny" Rowland. The double name added to his shady allure.
    Johnnie Johnson (with spelling variations) not uncommon, including 2 distinguished RAF pilots and my art school tutor.

    Stanley missed a trick in naming BJ, denying us the chance to coin Should Have Used A Johnny Johnson.

    Edit: actually I read that neither of the fly boys was actually christened John, 'Johnny' was just the nickname for anyone named Johnson.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,748
    sarissa said:

    There are serious issues around the use of AI decision-making potentially leading to discrimination in breach of The Equality Act 2010 and similar legislation. The track record of government departments in not appreciating the knock-on effects until a major scandal erupts is a major concern.

    Yes, 'AI' has an alarming track record of just perpetuating in-built biases from the datasets that it uses. And attempts to remove this can also lead to issues.
  • Options
    SkiddawSkiddaw Posts: 19
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    I don't believe in guilt by association, but Jeez..

    Man of the people, totally normal person
    @RobertKennedyJr after being asked about flying on JEFFREY EPSTEIN'S plane:

    "So and I run into everybody in New York. I mean, I knew Harvey Weinstein, I knew Roger Ailes, I knew -- O.J. Simpson came to my house. Bill Cosby came to my house.”

    https://twitter.com/Lis_Smith/status/1765564202851139851

    "Ghislaine was always wonderful to me."

    No doubt.

    Addendum - Am starting to think, that RFKjr is gonna underperform Kanye West. Certainly appears less qualified.
    He's also a leading anti-vaxx scammer, who causes serious damage to public health, while making a very good living off it.

    Lower than a snake's belly.
    Interesting view. The problem with this is huge numbers of people now know theres a problem with the covid vaccine. Even my dad said how many dementia care homes are going up and linked the explosion in dementia cases to the covid jab . There are also people on this board like malcolmg now open about their problems with the covid jab. Leon also linked to something yesterday about how they are covering up myocarditis cases.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 8

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Nigelb said:

    ...

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    Do you not understand Johnson set the train wreck in motion? He let the brake off at the top of a 2/1 incline and jumped clear before it build up a head of steam.

    If your party dies (I doubt it will) Johnson administered the first toxic dose.
    I'm not sure it's isam's party; it's rather that Boris has always been isam's guy.

    I might be unfair lumping him in with them, but there are a number of people who voted for Boris, and would do so again, who don't give a fig for the Conservative Party.
    TBF, neither does Boris.
    I’ve only ever voted Tory once, they’re not my party at all and never have been. I still consider myself more of a Labour man. I only voted leave because I felt FOM was unfair on low paid workers whilst making exploitative bosses richer.

    Boris hasn’t always been ‘my guy’ he was just the one who put an end to the remain filibuster on accepting the referendum vote, so got credit for that
    Fair clarifications.
    But it's also fair to note that you remain his strongest advocate on PB.
    Yes, because I think, and the VI polls at face value, and the leader polls from 2019 Tories both back me up, that it was a monumental error to replace him. There was/is no one else who could possibly have held together the coalition of voters that he had in 2019, as we can see.

    I don’t think it would be much different if I hadn’t voted for him; I am a gambler for a living so I spend a lot of time analysing things. It seems obvious to me that getting rid of someone who has a habit of being written off only to win against the odds was crazy, wouldn’t matter if I liked or loathed him.

    I dislike Sir Keir and don’t want him to be PM, but if Labour got rid of him after a wobble in the polls it would be madness
    Is there anything Boris could do which would cause you to say "I like your ideas, I understand your popularity, but a party leader or Prime Minister just can't behave like that, so with regret you're fired"?

    My impression (and my last vote for him was 2012 and the prorogation fiasco was when he finally crossed my line) is that Conservative MPs were willing to swallow a lot, but Pincher was the last straw.

    How would you feel if someone knowingly made a sex pest your line manager?
    Well maybe they took a principled stand that was bound to cost them their jobs, but I think they made a big mistake.
This discussion has been closed.