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We need more bureaucracy – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,111

    Oh dear.
    No blacks, no Irish, no dogs, no immigrants.

    https://x.com/lbc/status/1765825818091991501?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    What a Rotten thing to say.

    I heard it last night on Marr. Pro-Brexit, lived in the USA for forty years, bemoaning the decay of seaside towns and attributing that to immigration.

    Johnny W*n*er, more like.
    The guy always was a narcissistic prick, same as Morrissey. People are only cottoning onto it it now as he is daring to have opinions they don't like. His narcissistic prick behaviour was always okay when he had the "right" views.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    "Theresa May to stand down as MP at next election"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68509239

    Sad to see her go, but 27 years is a good innings as an MP.

    Tom Harwood appears to have had that scoop last night, although I think bad punctuation meant he was also saying there’d be a GE today

    Hearing whispers that Theresa May will announce she is standing down from Parliament at the next election tomorrow.

    https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1765864367541600418?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

  • Options
    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169

    My 30 point lead prediction is looking very good at this point.

    Come off it. I am not expecting parity until autumn, so just a small lead by January 23rd. Certainly no Tory landslide.
    Mexicanpete, more like MexicanHighAF
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,629

    Oh dear.
    No blacks, no Irish, no dogs, no immigrants.

    https://x.com/lbc/status/1765825818091991501?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    What a Rotten thing to say.

    I heard it last night on Marr. Pro-Brexit, lived in the USA for forty years, bemoaning the decay of seaside towns and attributing that to immigration.

    Johnny W*n*er, more like.
    Seaside towns in the U.K. died of EasyJet and Ryan Air. Well, their predecessors.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,191
    Carol Vorderman gets a slot on Good Morning Britain to put the boot in:

    https://x.com/gmb/status/1766023237505372161

    'This particular government has destroyed everything that we love and respect in this country.' @carolvorders

    Carol Vorderman speaks about how she is a lot 'freer on social media' to criticise the Conservative government.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,251

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    5 out of 11 YouGov polls this year with a Tory share of 20% including all of the last three.

    Nothing has changed.
    I remember when people used to suspect YouGov of having a pro-Tory bias.
    Maybe they still do?

    Real lead 35 points.
  • Options
    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    edited March 8
    At this rate any of the sensible Tory talent or vaguely competent talent has left or is losing.

    Are any of their newer candidates any good?

    Labour seems to have a lot of Starmer-types standing and some potentially quite good people who have a bit of charisma. I hope they don't make the mistake Blair and Brown made of not recruiting enough new talent when they were at their most successful.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,148

    ...

    Apols if already posted:

    @BritainElects

    📊 Labour lead at 28pts
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46% (+1)
    CON: 18% (-2)
    REF: 13% (+1)
    LDEM: 10% (-)

    via @PeoplePolling , 07 Mar
    Chgs. w/ Jan



    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1766003924299895100?s=20

    I don't believe this polling, but Sunak is surely toast.

    Good performance from the photogenic sword wielding Catherine Deneuve yesterday, defending Michelle Donelan.
    Con 18%, RefUK 13%. We should have a sweep on cross-over day. I guess mid-April, say Friday 12th.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,380
    Tories on 18%



    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    9m
    It Will Only Get Worse watch. Reform now only 5 points behind.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1766021883881812322
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,101
    ...

    Call the election now, Labour are toast:

    https://twitter.com/Daily_Express/status/1765866468065837561?ref_src=twsrc

    "BREXIT IS A GREAT BRITISH SUCCESS STORY WORTH BILLIONS" screams the front page. Then a quote from BadEnoch - "Britons are Better Off"

    So there. Cut over to GBeebies where their impartial panel of Lee Anderson and Jacob Rees-Mogg review the Express story then interview Ester McVey about why Labour would destroy our land of plenty.

    Forget GeeBeebies. Auntie Robbie Gibb Broadcasting Corporation were ramping the IFS/Paul Johnson story that after the disastrous joint Labour -Conservative budget, Labour (and perhaps Conservatives, although they won't win the election so it's not their problem) were disingenuous in ignoring how they would fill the post-election £19b pa hole as a result of the budget. Tax rises or service cuts?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,148

    At this rate any of the sensible Tory talent or vaguely competent talent has left or is losing.

    Are any of their newer candidates any good?

    Labour seems to have a lot of Starmer-types standing and some potentially quite good people who have a bit of charisma. I hope they don't make the mistake Blair and Brown made of not recruiting enough new talent when they were at their most successful.

    Does it matter? Only 20 or so will be elected at this rate.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,116
    FF43 said:

    On topic I suspect this suggestion wouldn't fix the NHS. Which raises the entirely reasonable riposte, what would you do differently, when I really don't know. Getting rid of the NHS entirely isn't an answer either. Sometimes I think you just have to work with what you've got and try to make it better.

    I was seeing the GP recently who prescribed some blood tests, tried to get a nurse appointment to take the blood, couldn't find one and booked me back in to do it himself. That's one more hard-to-get GP appointment not available to someone else.

    In France for example tests are carried out by very efficiently run private clinics. Patients make their own appointments and normally have samples taken and get results back in less than 48 hours from the original prescription. Costs are handled though the state insurer, normally with a patient contribution.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,403

    ...

    Apols if already posted:

    @BritainElects

    📊 Labour lead at 28pts
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 46% (+1)
    CON: 18% (-2)
    REF: 13% (+1)
    LDEM: 10% (-)

    via @PeoplePolling , 07 Mar
    Chgs. w/ Jan



    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1766003924299895100?s=20

    I don't believe this polling, but Sunak is surely toast.

    Good performance from the photogenic sword wielding Catherine Deneuve yesterday, defending Michelle Donelan.
    Con 18%, RefUK 13%. We should have a sweep on cross-over day. I guess mid-April, say Friday 12th.
    April 1st would be more appropriate.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,561

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    5 out of 11 YouGov polls this year with a Tory share of 20% including all of the last three.

    Nothing has changed.
    I remember when people used to suspect YouGov of having a pro-Tory bias.
    Suspect??? They were screaming about it when Jezbollah was Labour leader. You can't trust YouTory. Look at who founded it! Look at who runs it! Its Tory polling for Tories!!!!

    I also remember snide attacks on Starmer that "any other leader would be 20 points ahead" - from BJO mainly. Would Starmer want to *only* be 20 points ahead now?
    This was back in the early days of YouGov, when Cameron was the future.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,386
    edited March 8
    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,294
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    The sheer size of the NHS creates many challenges and also some opportunities. It employs many capable people. Some will have good ideas of how to improve things. For example we had the stories of the hospitals who had weekends entirely focused on a single procedure, massively increasing through put and reducing waiting times. Learn from this. Replicate it across the organisation.

    I am sure that there will be multiple examples of good practices across such a huge organisation and that there will be many examples of poor performance too. Before spending a lot of money on consultants real effort needs to be made to listen to the people who already do the work and how to do it better.

    This will require a culture shift. Less defensive, more open to new ideas, more focused on change than just coping. It may require an NHS with a bit more capacity than we have now. But personally, I think it’s the way ahead.

    Pretty much all innovation comes from the shop floor rather than management or management consultants.

    Personally, I am not convinced that more IT spending should be a priority. I work from electronic notes, use digital imaging systems and letter writing software. Admittedly these systems don't communicate well with each other, but that just means opening a half dozen applications when I switch on.

    The limitations on my productivity are mostly more straightforward. Physical space and beds to put people in, not enough Band 2 or 3 admin staff to book patients into gaps in clinics, not enough imaging capacity to keep pace with modern treatments etc.

    There isn't much point in digitalising booking software for operating theatre's to increase utilisation when the major reason for gaps is patients being cancelled because the beds are full of medical admissions waiting for social care.

    Tech Bros gonna Tech Bro. The real problems are just too boring and prosaic.

    Yes I completely agree. The idea that some tech is the answer has failed too many times to count. Focus on what stops people like you from doing your job more efficiently, see where the blockages are and deal with them.

    And try to build a culture that that is the way things will go with iterative growth and improvement.
    The other drag on NHS productivity is the lack of senior decision makers on the front line. Juniors, Physician Associates, Specialist Nurses all tend to lack confidence, so err on the safe side, over-investigating, over referring , bringing back for unnecessary reviews etc. This is both a training issue and a lack of continuity issue, as I am often working with unfamiliar staff, so they want and need to check everything with the boss.

    At the moment there is a real problem of over referral by non-medical staff in primary care for problems easily managed in General Practice previously. As each hospital attendance costs the NHS as much as a years percapita GP budget it is a waste of both time and resources, and a major cause of long waiting lists and patient anxiety.

    In order to start improving hospital outcomes, we need to first sort out the failures in GP practices. Then fewer people will attend A&E as they can’t see their GP and conditions will be picked up earlier, meaning less severe symptoms.
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,060

    And bravo @Malmesbury. Though with one important caveat.

    Simplism says "front line staff = good, admin = bad". We love our nurses. We respect our doctors, even when we resent paying them so much. We may think teachers are ghastly, but we recognise the need for them and if pushed acknowledge that we couldn't do their job.

    But administrators are money wasting pen pushers. Get rid. Even if it means you have people being paid a fortune spending their time being really expensive secretaries to themselves or wasting valuable time while their wheezy old PC boots up.

    Yes, bring back the old days where the chief exec. had to queue in line at the photocopier with everyone else.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,503

    Oh dear.
    No blacks, no Irish, no dogs, no immigrants.

    https://x.com/lbc/status/1765825818091991501?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    What a Rotten thing to say.

    I heard it last night on Marr. Pro-Brexit, lived in the USA for forty years, bemoaning the decay of seaside towns and attributing that to immigration.

    Johnny W*n*er, more like.
    Seaside towns in the U.K. died of EasyJet and Ryan Air. Well, their predecessors.
    Massive recovery possible over next 30 years if we heavily invest in them with the Med (and central Europe) getting too hot for summer holidays.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,503
    Roger said:

    A Cabinet Minister gratuitously libels an academic and then using an archaic convention gets the taxpayer to pay the £15,000 damages.

    The Leader of the House defends the Minister in Parliament by claiming that she is a person of integrity proven by the fact she had foregone £16,000 redundency for being fired after ONE day in Boris Johnson's Cabinet.

    The only surprise in today's People's Polling is that the Tories have managed 18%

    This seems a bit like the Scottish guys £10k or whatever laptop bill, completely untenable. Unless the next week is particularly news heavy she will be paying this herself soon enough.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,403

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    The sheer size of the NHS creates many challenges and also some opportunities. It employs many capable people. Some will have good ideas of how to improve things. For example we had the stories of the hospitals who had weekends entirely focused on a single procedure, massively increasing through put and reducing waiting times. Learn from this. Replicate it across the organisation.

    I am sure that there will be multiple examples of good practices across such a huge organisation and that there will be many examples of poor performance too. Before spending a lot of money on consultants real effort needs to be made to listen to the people who already do the work and how to do it better.

    This will require a culture shift. Less defensive, more open to new ideas, more focused on change than just coping. It may require an NHS with a bit more capacity than we have now. But personally, I think it’s the way ahead.

    Pretty much all innovation comes from the shop floor rather than management or management consultants.

    Personally, I am not convinced that more IT spending should be a priority. I work from electronic notes, use digital imaging systems and letter writing software. Admittedly these systems don't communicate well with each other, but that just means opening a half dozen applications when I switch on.

    The limitations on my productivity are mostly more straightforward. Physical space and beds to put people in, not enough Band 2 or 3 admin staff to book patients into gaps in clinics, not enough imaging capacity to keep pace with modern treatments etc.

    There isn't much point in digitalising booking software for operating theatre's to increase utilisation when the major reason for gaps is patients being cancelled because the beds are full of medical admissions waiting for social care.

    Tech Bros gonna Tech Bro. The real problems are just too boring and prosaic.

    Yes I completely agree. The idea that some tech is the answer has failed too many times to count. Focus on what stops people like you from doing your job more efficiently, see where the blockages are and deal with them.

    And try to build a culture that that is the way things will go with iterative growth and improvement.
    The other drag on NHS productivity is the lack of senior decision makers on the front line. Juniors, Physician Associates, Specialist Nurses all tend to lack confidence, so err on the safe side, over-investigating, over referring , bringing back for unnecessary reviews etc. This is both a training issue and a lack of continuity issue, as I am often working with unfamiliar staff, so they want and need to check everything with the boss.

    At the moment there is a real problem of over referral by non-medical staff in primary care for problems easily managed in General Practice previously. As each hospital attendance costs the NHS as much as a years percapita GP budget it is a waste of both time and resources, and a major cause of long waiting lists and patient anxiety.

    In order to start improving hospital outcomes, we need to first sort out the failures in GP practices. Then fewer people will attend A&E as they can’t see their GP and conditions will be picked up earlier, meaning less severe symptoms.
    I’ve ‘liked’ this, although I’m reminded of the time my (then) GP grudgingly referred me for endoscopy,, although ‘I can assure you, you haven’t got cancer’.
    Which, a couple of weeks later, the doctor at the endoscopy unit confirmed I had.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,762
    Eabhal said:

    There is a bigger problem with Hunt's plan. Even if you improve productivity in IT and project management, It would take a brave Health Secretary to use it to cut costs rather than save lives.

    That's the problem with public services, and health in particular. The savings could be used for dementia research, which will mean people will live with dementia for longer. Or for cancer research - my grandparents survived several bouts of cancer at massive cost, when 50 years ago the first bout would have had them.

    My shoulder surgery was only possible because of capital investment and innovation - MRI scans and keyhole surgery. But it cost the NHS a surgical team, a bed, months of physio, GP follow ups. That's why health spending is growing so much faster than what demographics would suggest.

    The only productivity improvement I can see that would actually reduce costs in the NHS would be a pervasive state intervention in how people live their lives - exercise, alcohol and diet most obviously. And even then, the saved cash would just be funnelled towards social care or mental health rather than say defence.

    Current health spending is a political choice and no one is brave enough to face up to that.

    I think that’s a somewhat naive view. I work on digital health and digital health providers find it very difficult to get commissioned by parts of the NHS unless they can show immediate cost savings. The financial pressures in the NHS are very strong. There is a clear focus for any changes to be cost saving.

    Those savings get used on other frontline services. They don’t go to dementia or cancer research. Those are very different budgets. Some such research is funded by the NHS, but a completely different pot of money. The Medical Research Council is another funder, public money but not NHS money. Lots of that research is funded by charities.

    The big inefficiency with digital is the absence of any central commissioning. That’s partly because some past big, centrally commissioned IT projects in health went wrong (see NPfIT), that’s partly an ideological belief in having different parts of the NHS competing with each other, that’s partly just a failure to enact necessary change.

    I am entirely supportive of your argument for more focus on preventative health. That used to be covered by Public Health England, but PHE got re-organised during the pandemic (which was utter madness) and the new body, UKHSA, just focuses on health security, not non-infectious conditions. Those functions got moved to the DHSC, but have been neglected there. (For example, Couch to 5k was a digital product that worked well to get people doing more exercise. It was made by PHE. OHID, the bit of DHSC who inherited these functions, don’t make digital products in the same way. They’d never create something like Couch to 5k.) Public health funding locally got moved to local authorities, which makes sense in some ways, but local authorities have zero money because of cuts.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,561
    edited March 8

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Not particularly. The People Polling poll had a decline in the Tory share and this poll has no change.

    Both YouGov and People Polling tend to have lower Tory shares, and higher ReformUK shares, than most other polling firms, and have done for some time, so this poll doesn't tell us anything new about whether they are more accurate in that regard or Savanta/Deltapoll are.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,468

    My 30 point lead prediction is looking very good at this point.

    Come off it. I am not expecting parity until autumn, so just a small lead by January 23rd. Certainly no Tory landslide.
    Is that the scenario where the Tory score first goes negative, then collapses so fast that it goes all the way round the clock so that they are back in the lead?
    Or, alternatively, forms a small black hole as it collapses in on itself.
  • Options
    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 399

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,629

    Oh dear.
    No blacks, no Irish, no dogs, no immigrants.

    https://x.com/lbc/status/1765825818091991501?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    What a Rotten thing to say.

    I heard it last night on Marr. Pro-Brexit, lived in the USA for forty years, bemoaning the decay of seaside towns and attributing that to immigration.

    Johnny W*n*er, more like.
    Seaside towns in the U.K. died of EasyJet and Ryan Air. Well, their predecessors.
    Massive recovery possible over next 30 years if we heavily invest in them with the Med (and central Europe) getting too hot for summer holidays.
    See Cornwall….

    Of course, the response will be not to build any infrastructure or housing. Then wonder why an influx of visitors fucks the locality up.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,503

    Tories on 18%



    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    9m
    It Will Only Get Worse watch. Reform now only 5 points behind.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1766021883881812322

    Tories are headlining on immigration is the countries major problem, but we have failed to deal with it, and are divided internally on how to do so. As long as they do that they will surely continue to lose centre right to Labour and righty right to Refuk.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,148

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    He's a gonner after the May locals imo.
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,268

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    5 out of 11 YouGov polls this year with a Tory share of 20% including all of the last three.

    Nothing has changed.
    I remember when people used to suspect YouGov of having a pro-Tory bias.
    Maybe they still do?

    Real lead 35 points.
    That actually made me laugh out loud, causing funny looks.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,148

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Sorry, who is Dr Badloss?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,629

    Eabhal said:

    There is a bigger problem with Hunt's plan. Even if you improve productivity in IT and project management, It would take a brave Health Secretary to use it to cut costs rather than save lives.

    That's the problem with public services, and health in particular. The savings could be used for dementia research, which will mean people will live with dementia for longer. Or for cancer research - my grandparents survived several bouts of cancer at massive cost, when 50 years ago the first bout would have had them.

    My shoulder surgery was only possible because of capital investment and innovation - MRI scans and keyhole surgery. But it cost the NHS a surgical team, a bed, months of physio, GP follow ups. That's why health spending is growing so much faster than what demographics would suggest.

    The only productivity improvement I can see that would actually reduce costs in the NHS would be a pervasive state intervention in how people live their lives - exercise, alcohol and diet most obviously. And even then, the saved cash would just be funnelled towards social care or mental health rather than say defence.

    Current health spending is a political choice and no one is brave enough to face up to that.

    I think that’s a somewhat naive view. I work on digital health and digital health providers find it very difficult to get commissioned by parts of the NHS unless they can show immediate cost savings. The financial pressures in the NHS are very strong. There is a clear focus for any changes to be cost saving.

    Those savings get used on other frontline services. They don’t go to dementia or cancer research. Those are very different budgets. Some such research is funded by the NHS, but a completely different pot of money. The Medical Research Council is another funder, public money but not NHS money. Lots of that research is funded by charities.

    The big inefficiency with digital is the absence of any central commissioning. That’s partly because some past big, centrally commissioned IT projects in health went wrong (see NPfIT), that’s partly an ideological belief in having different parts of the NHS competing with each other, that’s partly just a failure to enact necessary change.

    I am entirely supportive of your argument for more focus on preventative health. That used to be covered by Public Health England, but PHE got re-organised during the pandemic (which was utter madness) and the new body, UKHSA, just focuses on health security, not non-infectious conditions. Those functions got moved to the DHSC, but have been neglected there. (For example, Couch to 5k was a digital product that worked well to get people doing more exercise. It was made by PHE. OHID, the bit of DHSC who inherited these functions, don’t make digital products in the same way. They’d never create something like Couch to 5k.) Public health funding locally got moved to local authorities, which makes sense in some ways, but local authorities have zero money because of cuts.
    The Vitality program waves hello….
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,453
    What if flights take off for Rwanda and the boats keep coming ?

    Or will the Home Office just fiddle the data ?

  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,386

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    He's a gonner after the May locals imo.
    Which is why he is best to call a general election on 2 May
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,404
    edited March 8
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    On topic I suspect this suggestion wouldn't fix the NHS. Which raises the entirely reasonable riposte, what would you do differently, when I really don't know. Getting rid of the NHS entirely isn't an answer either. Sometimes I think you just have to work with what you've got and try to make it better.

    I was seeing the GP recently who prescribed some blood tests, tried to get a nurse appointment to take the blood, couldn't find one and booked me back in to do it himself. That's one more hard-to-get GP appointment not available to someone else.

    In France for example tests are carried out by very efficiently run private clinics. Patients make their own appointments and normally have samples taken and get results back in less than 48 hours from the original prescription. Costs are handled though the state insurer, normally with a patient contribution.
    Same in much of this country on the NHS. See this site, for instance:-
    https://app.10to8.com/book/nelftbookabloodtest/

    ETA you will see there is even a polyclinic among the options, for readers of yesterday's thread.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,561
    mwadams said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    5 out of 11 YouGov polls this year with a Tory share of 20% including all of the last three.

    Nothing has changed.
    I remember when people used to suspect YouGov of having a pro-Tory bias.
    Maybe they still do?

    Real lead 35 points.
    That actually made me laugh out loud, causing funny looks.
    Yes, but also, it's not impossible. We have a strong cognitive bias towards assuming that the situation can't be as bad for the Tories as the polls show.

    A similar effect happened in 2015 with the SNP surge, and a number of PBers made good money betting on the SNP tidal wave as a result. Someone posted yesterday that there's still a 14% return on betting on Labour most seats, which is absolutely nuts when they're this far ahead this late in the Parliament.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,917
    DavidL said:

    Labour's Brenda Dacres wins the Lewisham mayoral byelection with more than half of the vote, albeit on a low turnout. One of her key priorities will be pushing for the Bakerloo Line extension to Lewisham via the Old Kent Road and New Cross Gate.

    A big part of me doesn't want to see any modernisation of the Bakerloo Line. The ancient trains give me cosy vibes, recalling my childhood travelling on the Underground for the first time.
    Yes I agree on that, the Bakerloo line is the last place in Britain that's completely unchanged from my childhood. The extension will be very good news for this area though, unlocking a load of housing and development down the Old Kent Road.
    Low value property though. What, £2 and £4 rent on the light browns? Hard to get a return on that.
    Useless unless you can put hotels on them.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,340
    nico679 said:

    What if flights take off for Rwanda and the boats keep coming ?

    Or will the Home Office just fiddle the data ?

    How does it not fail?

    There are already thousands of small boat people in legal limbo, and a steady flow coming over the Channel.

    And after about one planeload, Rwanda puts up the "sorry, we're full, try again next year" sign.

    Rwanda only works as a policy to argue about, not as a thing to do. Which might be an argument for running in May, if only the polls weren't so awful.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,148

    Tories on 18%



    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    9m
    It Will Only Get Worse watch. Reform now only 5 points behind.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1766021883881812322

    Tories are headlining on immigration is the countries major problem, but we have failed to deal with it, and are divided internally on how to do so. As long as they do that they will surely continue to lose centre right to Labour and righty right to Refuk.
    I was thinking about that. Sunak seems intent on getting the Rwanda scheme in operation before any GE, presumably so that he can say: 'look, I've delivered this'.

    But there are at least two big risks in that approach:
    1. His plan gets bogged down in the HoL and/or the courts and fails to deliver.
    2. He get's it through, Rwanda flights start, but summer boat numbers fail to fall.

    If anything the latter is a bigger risk. The question for me is: are potential migrants/refugees who currently get suckered into taking huge risks and paying lots of money to traffickers going to be put off by a threat of ending up in Rwanda? I doubt it.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,446
    Roger said:

    A Cabinet Minister gratuitously libels an academic and then using an archaic convention gets the taxpayer to pay the £15,000 damages.

    The Leader of the House defends the Minister in Parliament by claiming that she is a person of integrity proven by the fact she had foregone £16,000 redundency for being fired after ONE day in Boris Johnson's Cabinet.

    The only surprise in today's People's Polling is that the Tories have managed 18%

    Meanwhile her partner and his family made serious coin out of Covid PPE contracts.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 8

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,386

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Sorry, who is Dr Badloss?
    Dr Mark Badloss, boss of People Polling.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,240
    Looking tricky for England tbh.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,148

    Tories on 18%



    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    9m
    It Will Only Get Worse watch. Reform now only 5 points behind.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1766021883881812322

    Tories are headlining on immigration is the countries major problem, but we have failed to deal with it, and are divided internally on how to do so. As long as they do that they will surely continue to lose centre right to Labour and righty right to Refuk.
    I was thinking about that. Sunak seems intent on getting the Rwanda scheme in operation before any GE, presumably so that he can say: 'look, I've delivered this'.

    But there are at least two big risks in that approach:
    1. His plan gets bogged down in the HoL and/or the courts and fails to deliver.
    2. He get's it through, Rwanda flights start, but summer boat numbers fail to fall.

    If anything the latter is a bigger risk. The question for me is: are potential migrants/refugees who currently get suckered into taking huge risks and paying lots of money to traffickers going to be put off by a threat of ending up in Rwanda? I doubt it.
    Edit: A see Nico covered this point first in and much more succinctly.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,276
    edited March 8

    Carol Vorderman gets a slot on Good Morning Britain to put the boot in:

    https://x.com/gmb/status/1766023237505372161

    'This particular government has destroyed everything that we love and respect in this country.' @carolvorders

    Carol Vorderman speaks about how she is a lot 'freer on social media' to criticise the Conservative government.

    I worked with CV in about 2005.

    How come she looks younger now than she did then?

    I don't!
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,404

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    5 out of 11 YouGov polls this year with a Tory share of 20% including all of the last three.

    Nothing has changed.
    I remember when people used to suspect YouGov of having a pro-Tory bias.
    Suspect??? They were screaming about it when Jezbollah was Labour leader. You can't trust YouTory. Look at who founded it! Look at who runs it! Its Tory polling for Tories!!!!

    I also remember snide attacks on Starmer that "any other leader would be 20 points ahead" - from BJO mainly. Would Starmer want to *only* be 20 points ahead now?
    This was back in the early days of YouGov, when Cameron was the future.
    Yes, but it is not like anyone on PB dismissed Goodwin's new polls...
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,101
    Taz said:

    Oh dear.
    No blacks, no Irish, no dogs, no immigrants.

    https://x.com/lbc/status/1765825818091991501?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    What a Rotten thing to say.

    I heard it last night on Marr. Pro-Brexit, lived in the USA for forty years, bemoaning the decay of seaside towns and attributing that to immigration.

    Johnny W*n*er, more like.
    The guy always was a narcissistic prick, same as Morrissey. People are only cottoning onto it it now as he is daring to have opinions they don't like. His narcissistic prick behaviour was always okay when he had the "right" views.
    I never liked the profane ****! And I couldn't bear the Smiths. Morrissey, the Poundland Julian Cope.
  • Options
    Techne this morning



    No change.

    We Think and Survation to come later today.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,101
    edited March 8

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Sorry, who is Dr Badloss?
    Goodwin?
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,268

    Tories on 18%



    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    9m
    It Will Only Get Worse watch. Reform now only 5 points behind.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1766021883881812322

    Tories are headlining on immigration is the countries major problem, but we have failed to deal with it, and are divided internally on how to do so. As long as they do that they will surely continue to lose centre right to Labour and righty right to Refuk.
    There's an underlying issue behind that point. Almost everyone, from whatever perspective, has got to stage where they are asking "what is the point of the Tories (right now)?"

    That is, in the short term, fatal, and very difficult to recover from when the only answer they have is "not being Labour".
  • Options
    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 399
    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    Boris johnon is hugely unpopular. So I don't agree with your analysis here.
  • Options
    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 399

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    He's a gonner after the May locals imo.
    Then surely we get the early GE if that is the outlook
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,468
    Taz said:

    Oh dear.
    No blacks, no Irish, no dogs, no immigrants.

    https://x.com/lbc/status/1765825818091991501?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    What a Rotten thing to say.

    I heard it last night on Marr. Pro-Brexit, lived in the USA for forty years, bemoaning the decay of seaside towns and attributing that to immigration.

    Johnny W*n*er, more like.
    The guy always was a narcissistic prick, same as Morrissey. People are only cottoning onto it it now as he is daring to have opinions they don't like. His narcissistic prick behaviour was always okay when he had the "right" views.
    Not really.
    Both rebels without a clue.
  • Options
    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    The Tories seem to despise the concept of legal aid and spending taxpayer money on it.

    Unless it's the Tories engaging in pointless court cases, then the taxpayer can pay.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,503
    mwadams said:

    Tories on 18%



    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    9m
    It Will Only Get Worse watch. Reform now only 5 points behind.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1766021883881812322

    Tories are headlining on immigration is the countries major problem, but we have failed to deal with it, and are divided internally on how to do so. As long as they do that they will surely continue to lose centre right to Labour and righty right to Refuk.
    There's an underlying issue behind that point. Almost everyone, from whatever perspective, has got to stage where they are asking "what is the point of the Tories (right now)?"

    That is, in the short term, fatal, and very difficult to recover from when the only answer they have is "not being Labour".
    I think almost everyone is also at the point of not giving them any benefit of the doubt, nor particuarly being willing to listen to them. I struggle to see how they improve from here until the campaign starts for real, absent some black swans, the most obvious being inviting Farage in but he will surely do that post election rather than pre election.

    In the actual campaign I'd expect them to recover to low twenties.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,561

    Tories on 18%



    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    9m
    It Will Only Get Worse watch. Reform now only 5 points behind.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1766021883881812322

    Tories are headlining on immigration is the countries major problem, but we have failed to deal with it, and are divided internally on how to do so. As long as they do that they will surely continue to lose centre right to Labour and righty right to Refuk.
    I was thinking about that. Sunak seems intent on getting the Rwanda scheme in operation before any GE, presumably so that he can say: 'look, I've delivered this'.

    But there are at least two big risks in that approach:
    1. His plan gets bogged down in the HoL and/or the courts and fails to deliver.
    2. He get's it through, Rwanda flights start, but summer boat numbers fail to fall.

    If anything the latter is a bigger risk. The question for me is: are potential migrants/refugees who currently get suckered into taking huge risks and paying lots of money to traffickers going to be put off by a threat of ending up in Rwanda? I doubt it.
    Irish politicians have credited the Rwanda policy with putting migrants off Britain and increasing arrivals into Ireland. Of course, if the number of migrants continues to rise, then even if the Rwanda policy "works", and a smaller proportion of migrants head to Britain, the absolute number of migrants arriving in Britain might continue to rise.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,875
    mwadams said:

    Tories on 18%



    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    9m
    It Will Only Get Worse watch. Reform now only 5 points behind.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1766021883881812322

    Tories are headlining on immigration is the countries major problem, but we have failed to deal with it, and are divided internally on how to do so. As long as they do that they will surely continue to lose centre right to Labour and righty right to Refuk.
    There's an underlying issue behind that point. Almost everyone, from whatever perspective, has got to stage where they are asking "what is the point of the Tories (right now)?"

    That is, in the short term, fatal, and very difficult to recover from when the only answer they have is "not being Labour".
    Yes if they lose the floating centre to Labour and the hard brexity right to Reform (or Abstain) it leaves them with a low twenties vote and a huge loss of seats. This looks to be what they're facing regardless of when the election is called. And less than 3 years ago they were gaining Hartlepool. Quite a journey.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,917
    edited March 8
    Pulpstar said:

    Looking tricky for England tbh.

    India 400/4 now, and looking like 600 is possible.

    Edit: make that 403/5. Still looking like an innings defeat for England though.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,158

    The Tories seem to despise the concept of legal aid and spending taxpayer money on it.

    Unless it's the Tories engaging in pointless court cases, then the taxpayer can pay.

    Surprising that current HMG has NOT (yet anyway) created Special Crony Courts so the Great and NoGood can get the special treatment when caught blue-handed with their grubby hands in the biscuit tin.
  • Options
    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    edited March 8
    I spoke to my Dad last night, in less good circumstances than I'd have liked but nonetheless we had a chat.

    He's been a Tory voter all his life, the quintessential "Tory" I would think of, worked in the City, wealthy, worked all his life, inherited money etc. He has voted in every election since 1974.

    He is unlikely to vote at all - but he doesn't mind if SKS wins.

    The Tories are screwed.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,111

    Taz said:

    Oh dear.
    No blacks, no Irish, no dogs, no immigrants.

    https://x.com/lbc/status/1765825818091991501?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    What a Rotten thing to say.

    I heard it last night on Marr. Pro-Brexit, lived in the USA for forty years, bemoaning the decay of seaside towns and attributing that to immigration.

    Johnny W*n*er, more like.
    The guy always was a narcissistic prick, same as Morrissey. People are only cottoning onto it it now as he is daring to have opinions they don't like. His narcissistic prick behaviour was always okay when he had the "right" views.
    I never liked the profane ****! And I couldn't bear the Smiths. Morrissey, the Poundland Julian Cope.
    I always liked the Smiths and Morrisseys work. Still do.

    You can disapprove of the musician but still enjoy the work. Rock n Roll part 2 by Gary Glitter Is a cracking even if he’s a nonce. Hotel California by the eagles great even if some band members were not good people

    Glad I was never a Lostprophets fan.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,101
    ...
    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    Do you not understand Johnson set the train wreck in motion? He let the brake off at the top of a 2/1 incline and jumped clear before it build up a head of steam.

    If your party dies (I doubt it will) Johnson administered the first toxic dose.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,101

    The Tories seem to despise the concept of legal aid and spending taxpayer money on it.

    Unless it's the Tories engaging in pointless court cases, then the taxpayer can pay.

    This iteration hate poor people.
  • Options
    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    I see Labour are going to get their own back 14 years later, by calling Rishi Sunak a squatter.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147

    biggles said:

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
    Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".

    “Actively considered” in the Yes Minister sense?

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=X-HUw3_TCXg
    I mean, just listen to the podcast! (It’s about 2/3s of the way in)
    For the record, I don’t subscribe to this “May is now being considered” claptrap.
    Eh? I thought you were certain it will be 2 May.

    Oh, I think I see what you mean.
    Yes. I mean You can’t “consider” having one now, at this stage. You could consider cancelling one you planned and worked on for months, but you can’t consider just calling one after emptying your diaries for April, a day after holding a budget, after spending months burning through war chest like confetti on your election pitch and materials in the first months of the year. You wouldn’t only start burning time effort and money right now, to have voters in a sweet spot on a particular day - you will already have been directing everything you’ve been doing towards shaping votes for that day, for months now. Surely?

    I did not say months ago, there’s going to be a May election, I started by asking what sort of indicators and tell tale signs would there be we can be spotting. Go look at my posts. I merely thought it would be fun to call it right before the experts and journalists - and those setting betting odds.

    And like, how can so many PBers believe elections are called on the hoof, in a whimsical, non scientific way? 🤷‍♀️ by looking at polls this month, or newspaper front pages after a budget?

    An incredible amount of thought and scientific modelling has gone into getting the right day and directing everything from a long way out looking to “peak” on that day. Surely?
    Sure. 2 May might well have been his preferred day. The Tories are still 20 points behind though, which currently makes it suboptimal not to keep trying for a recovery.
    And the other part of my argument I would ask you to consider. Looking for evidence they have signed up to May 2nd.

    And as locals on May 2nd makes an April election controversial waste of Money, and disastrous locals rule out May and June, it was either May 2nd or a date mid October to early ish December.

    So I started looking for the evidence to disprove or prove the hypothesis of May 2nd, and lo and behold the evidence started mounting up, I became more convinced Sunak and election team were actively at work on May 2nd.

    And in the last few weeks the government confirmed to me it’s on for May 2nd. They were clearing the decks of opposition attack lines, such as tell us how much Rwanda costs, when they fessed up to this last week that was a key moment, as was the chart showing the amount Tories are spending now on social media, it’s a sharp line straight up in a spend that started straight after Christmas is massive every week and can’t be maintained like this till autumn, another key moment earlier this week, how much had been cancelled in advance from the Prime Ministers April diary. All for the local elections? Yesterday, the budget - labour now down to just one tax differential, and unfunded hole in their manifesto - is this something either of us would give Labour six months to sort out, or do in the last fiscal event just before election called?

    Am I imagining all these tell tale signs? Are they real - though fit into a locals on May 2nd General Election Autumn scenario? 🤷‍♀️

    And now if Theresa Mays announcement is true, Add the timing to the evidence.
    Theresa May's announcement is neither here nor there. MPs have been announcing their retirements for months, and will no doubt continue to do so.

    On the main point, yes, May 2 makes sense if Sunak can do it. But PeoplePolling have just dropped an 18% Con share and Lab+28 lead. No matter what No 10 and CCHQ might have planned as their preferred option, you don't call an election in those circumstances if waiting is a credible option.

    Labour's 'unfunded hole' is bollocks and Labour could easily call it out as such. A billion or so here or there is a rounding error in the government spending; it really isn't a crisis and they should tell journalists to stop being so silly and swallowing No 10's lines whole.
    But all this unicorn polling is bogus. Meaningless. All polling from the last 2 years showing Reform and Green above 3%, you can place in a bin right now, as such quantity of wasted protest votes - evident in polling and by elections for more than a year - is definitely not going to happen on GE day.

    The whole psychology of a General Election is different, will transform into scenario very different from the eighteen month build up, and the reason for this is the total for others in all polling is unsustainably high for what will suddenly become a two horse race in the minds of voters, as only 1 of 2 men can be elected Prime Minister.

    The pollsters are letting us down as political bettors and armchair analysts. The Tory’s are not anywhere near low as 18%. To match the psyche of a GE event, pollsters need to do more forced choice polling for public consumption and not just for the Tory re-election team. Otherwise pollsters are going to utterly absolutely embarrass themselves.

    Last forced choice poll I have, was by Delta in March 24, with Lab lead just 11 points - 42% to 31%, on forced choice. Tories on 31% even before proper swingback begins now with confirmation of the date, the voters go into forced choice mindset which needs to be captured properly, and the Conservatives goes for the jugular of Labours safety first “balloon fiddling” campaign. 42%-31% can tighten still further is what I expect from that same poll series.

    But only in May, It’s the ability to get voters back in May which war gaming shows as lessened or blown away by Autumn, that decides the election is May 2nd.
    But whats different with me when I say May 2nd, is I have come to this decision to save the Conservative Party, not bury it.

    If you are thinking the only factor to consider is the economy, then I think you are being lazy. Yes - 99 times out of 100 you look to economy and household budgets improving or worsening to steer on election timing, but current expected explosion in boat crossings, government have zero control over, and how it acts like reverse catnip on Tory discipline and the mindset of groups of voters they need to Swingback to them, gives this decision a further rather unique element of jeopardy to consider as well.

    Why am I even bothering, if they are choosing a conscious decision not to listen? 🤦‍♀️

    I’ll shut up.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,503

    ...

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    Do you not understand Johnson set the train wreck in motion? He let the brake off at the top of a 2/1 incline and jumped clear before it build up a head of steam.

    If your party dies (I doubt it will) Johnson administered the first toxic dose.
    Sorry seems to be the hardest word.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,101
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Oh dear.
    No blacks, no Irish, no dogs, no immigrants.

    https://x.com/lbc/status/1765825818091991501?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    What a Rotten thing to say.

    I heard it last night on Marr. Pro-Brexit, lived in the USA for forty years, bemoaning the decay of seaside towns and attributing that to immigration.

    Johnny W*n*er, more like.
    The guy always was a narcissistic prick, same as Morrissey. People are only cottoning onto it it now as he is daring to have opinions they don't like. His narcissistic prick behaviour was always okay when he had the "right" views.
    I never liked the profane ****! And I couldn't bear the Smiths. Morrissey, the Poundland Julian Cope.
    I always liked the Smiths and Morrisseys work. Still do.

    You can disapprove of the musician but still enjoy the work. Rock n Roll part 2 by Gary Glitter Is a cracking even if he’s a nonce. Hotel California by the eagles great even if some band members were not good people

    Glad I was never a Lostprophets fan.
    If you miss "the Leader" he can still be heard on continental radio stations.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,158
    edited March 8
    NYT - George Santos says he’s running for Congress again

    SSI - Surprised that Republicans did NOT select their ex-Member (in more ways than one) Santos, to give reply to President Biden's bravura State of the Union Speech.

    George is a natural - Donald Trump's spiritual love child.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,875
    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    He will be pleased, yes. And I think you're right that if he'd somehow survived the Cons would still be heading for defeat but a smaller one.

    At the same time I think they had to can him. His character defects had become too obvious. What they didn't have to do however, and by doing it they finished themselves off, was replace him with the utterly risible Liz Truss.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,748
    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    I can see where you're coming from, but the counter-factual is interesting: Johnson made several very poor decisions, in an unforced manner. Would his decision-making have improved if he had remained leader, or would he have continued to make poor decisions, precisely because he was getting away with them?

    Given his history from his time as MoL and before, I doubt he'd have learnt.

    So the question then becomes how many mistakes he could make before it affects his electibility?
  • Options
    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    Is this Parliament the largest turnaround for a party in history?

    Labour went from polling in the low 20s to polling in the high 40s, the Tories went from the 50s at one point to 18 in one poll.

    Has this ever happened before?
  • Options
    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    Controversial idea: Kwasi Kwarteng was screwed over by Liz Truss and would not have presented any of her nutty ideas if he was in charge
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,468

    ...

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    Do you not understand Johnson set the train wreck in motion? He let the brake off at the top of a 2/1 incline and jumped clear before it build up a head of steam.

    If your party dies (I doubt it will) Johnson administered the first toxic dose.
    I'm not sure it's isam's party; it's rather that Boris has always been isam's guy.

    I might be unfair lumping him in with them, but there are a number of people who voted for Boris, and would do so again, who don't give a fig for the Conservative Party.
    TBF, neither does Boris.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,688

    Oh dear.
    No blacks, no Irish, no dogs, no immigrants.

    https://x.com/lbc/status/1765825818091991501?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    What a Rotten thing to say.

    I heard it last night on Marr. Pro-Brexit, lived in the USA for forty years, bemoaning the decay of seaside towns and attributing that to immigration.

    Johnny W*n*er, more like.
    Every migrant likes old migrants like them, and dislikes the new migrants who are not like them. T'was ever thus.
  • Options
    StaffordKnotStaffordKnot Posts: 94

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    I can see where you're coming from, but the counter-factual is interesting: Johnson made several very poor decisions, in an unforced manner. Would his decision-making have improved if he had remained leader, or would he have continued to make poor decisions, precisely because he was getting away with them?

    Given his history from his time as MoL and before, I doubt he'd have learnt.

    So the question then becomes how many mistakes he could make before it affects his electibility?
    Put quite simply, at the time no one believed it would be possible to find anyone less suitable to be Prime Minister than Boris Johnson - then we found TWO!
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,503

    Controversial idea: Kwasi Kwarteng was screwed over by Liz Truss and would not have presented any of her nutty ideas if he was in charge

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Britannia_Unchained

    They wrote a book on it together (with Patel and Raab) in 2012. So, no, they were on the same page, even if they might have written slightly different paragraphs.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,043

    Is this Parliament the largest turnaround for a party in history?

    Labour went from polling in the low 20s to polling in the high 40s, the Tories went from the 50s at one point to 18 in one poll.

    Has this ever happened before?

    Has the bed ever been shat this hard by a government? Well, I say A government but the mandate given by the electorate feels like its from a different century.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,404

    Controversial idea: Kwasi Kwarteng was screwed over by Liz Truss and would not have presented any of her nutty ideas if he was in charge

    Kwarteng and Truss are near-neighbours and have been intellectual bedmates for years. Britannia Unchained and all that. Kwasi would have implemented the same ideas but more slowly, in which case both of them might still have been in Downing Street.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,158

    biggles said:

    On the latest Political Currency podcast, George Osborne says a May election is being considered. He says many Tory MPs want it. He thinks it will be nuts to do so however!

    It was only two weeks ago that Osborne 'revealed' the election was definitely going to be 14 November.
    Well, I suspect next door's cat could tell you that "a May election is being considered".

    “Actively considered” in the Yes Minister sense?

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=X-HUw3_TCXg
    I mean, just listen to the podcast! (It’s about 2/3s of the way in)
    For the record, I don’t subscribe to this “May is now being considered” claptrap.
    Eh? I thought you were certain it will be 2 May.

    Oh, I think I see what you mean.
    Yes. I mean You can’t “consider” having one now, at this stage. You could consider cancelling one you planned and worked on for months, but you can’t consider just calling one after emptying your diaries for April, a day after holding a budget, after spending months burning through war chest like confetti on your election pitch and materials in the first months of the year. You wouldn’t only start burning time effort and money right now, to have voters in a sweet spot on a particular day - you will already have been directing everything you’ve been doing towards shaping votes for that day, for months now. Surely?

    I did not say months ago, there’s going to be a May election, I started by asking what sort of indicators and tell tale signs would there be we can be spotting. Go look at my posts. I merely thought it would be fun to call it right before the experts and journalists - and those setting betting odds.

    And like, how can so many PBers believe elections are called on the hoof, in a whimsical, non scientific way? 🤷‍♀️ by looking at polls this month, or newspaper front pages after a budget?

    An incredible amount of thought and scientific modelling has gone into getting the right day and directing everything from a long way out looking to “peak” on that day. Surely?
    Sure. 2 May might well have been his preferred day. The Tories are still 20 points behind though, which currently makes it suboptimal not to keep trying for a recovery.
    And the other part of my argument I would ask you to consider. Looking for evidence they have signed up to May 2nd.

    And as locals on May 2nd makes an April election controversial waste of Money, and disastrous locals rule out May and June, it was either May 2nd or a date mid October to early ish December.

    So I started looking for the evidence to disprove or prove the hypothesis of May 2nd, and lo and behold the evidence started mounting up, I became more convinced Sunak and election team were actively at work on May 2nd.

    And in the last few weeks the government confirmed to me it’s on for May 2nd. They were clearing the decks of opposition attack lines, such as tell us how much Rwanda costs, when they fessed up to this last week that was a key moment, as was the chart showing the amount Tories are spending now on social media, it’s a sharp line straight up in a spend that started straight after Christmas is massive every week and can’t be maintained like this till autumn, another key moment earlier this week, how much had been cancelled in advance from the Prime Ministers April diary. All for the local elections? Yesterday, the budget - labour now down to just one tax differential, and unfunded hole in their manifesto - is this something either of us would give Labour six months to sort out, or do in the last fiscal event just before election called?

    Am I imagining all these tell tale signs? Are they real - though fit into a locals on May 2nd General Election Autumn scenario? 🤷‍♀️

    And now if Theresa Mays announcement is true, Add the timing to the evidence.
    Theresa May's announcement is neither here nor there. MPs have been announcing their retirements for months, and will no doubt continue to do so.

    On the main point, yes, May 2 makes sense if Sunak can do it. But PeoplePolling have just dropped an 18% Con share and Lab+28 lead. No matter what No 10 and CCHQ might have planned as their preferred option, you don't call an election in those circumstances if waiting is a credible option.

    Labour's 'unfunded hole' is bollocks and Labour could easily call it out as such. A billion or so here or there is a rounding error in the government spending; it really isn't a crisis and they should tell journalists to stop being so silly and swallowing No 10's lines whole.
    But all this unicorn polling is bogus. Meaningless. All polling from the last 2 years showing Reform and Green above 3%, you can place in a bin right now, as such quantity of wasted protest votes - evident in polling and by elections for more than a year - is definitely not going to happen on GE day.

    The whole psychology of a General Election is different, will transform into scenario very different from the eighteen month build up, and the reason for this is the total for others in all polling is unsustainably high for what will suddenly become a two horse race in the minds of voters, as only 1 of 2 men can be elected Prime Minister.

    The pollsters are letting us down as political bettors and armchair analysts. The Tory’s are not anywhere near low as 18%. To match the psyche of a GE event, pollsters need to do more forced choice polling for public consumption and not just for the Tory re-election team. Otherwise pollsters are going to utterly absolutely embarrass themselves.

    Last forced choice poll I have, was by Delta in March 24, with Lab lead just 11 points - 42% to 31%, on forced choice. Tories on 31% even before proper swingback begins now with confirmation of the date, the voters go into forced choice mindset which needs to be captured properly, and the Conservatives goes for the jugular of Labours safety first “balloon fiddling” campaign. 42%-31% can tighten still further is what I expect from that same poll series.

    But only in May, It’s the ability to get voters back in May which war gaming shows as lessened or blown away by Autumn, that decides the election is May 2nd.
    But whats different with me when I say May 2nd, is I have come to this decision to save the Conservative Party, not bury it.

    If you are thinking the only factor to consider is the economy, then I think you are being lazy. Yes - 99 times out of 100 you look to economy and household budgets improving or worsening to steer on election timing, but current expected explosion in boat crossings, government have zero control over, and how it acts like reverse catnip on Tory discipline and the mindset of groups of voters they need to Swingback to them, gives this decision a further rather unique element of jeopardy to consider as well.

    Why am I even bothering, if they are choosing a conscious decision not to listen? 🤦‍♀️

    I’ll shut up.
    The ghost of Lyin' Brian Mulroney is hovering over the Tory Party.

    But there is no Christmas in the morning . . .
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    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169

    Controversial idea: Kwasi Kwarteng was screwed over by Liz Truss and would not have presented any of her nutty ideas if he was in charge

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Britannia_Unchained

    They wrote a book on it together (with Patel and Raab) in 2012. So, no, they were on the same page, even if they might have written slightly different paragraphs.
    I absolutely do not think he'd have presented any of her ideas in the budget, certainly not at the speed she wanted to.

    I don't like anything he said or did but I think he's a lot more intelligent than Truss ever was.

    He should really be a political commentator and never have got into politics, as he's got a good analysis of what has actually gone wrong. Even if his solutions were moronic.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,150
    Mr. Pioneers, there was a degree of false or inflated triumph for the Conservatives last time as the media and public had woken up to the fact that Corbyn was a far left nutcase who'd side with Russia over the UK over chemical weapon attacks, etc. So the blue starting point was artificially higher than it should've been. The result was not an endorsement of the Conservatives, or Johnson, it's just that Labour had an absolutely unacceptable leader.

    Now they've got someone who seems bland an inoffensive. Not inspiring, but he doesn't need to be.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,404

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    I can see where you're coming from, but the counter-factual is interesting: Johnson made several very poor decisions, in an unforced manner. Would his decision-making have improved if he had remained leader, or would he have continued to make poor decisions, precisely because he was getting away with them?

    Given his history from his time as MoL and before, I doubt he'd have learnt.

    So the question then becomes how many mistakes he could make before it affects his electibility?
    It is commonplace that Boris has always depended on a competent team, as when he was Mayor. It has been suggested that his Prime Ministerial woes came from bringing all the Brexit campaign clowns into Downing Street.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,386
    Will TRUSS return to Downing Street on 5 May? We watch, and we wait.
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    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    edited March 8

    Is this Parliament the largest turnaround for a party in history?

    Labour went from polling in the low 20s to polling in the high 40s, the Tories went from the 50s at one point to 18 in one poll.

    Has this ever happened before?

    Has the bed ever been shat this hard by a government? Well, I say A government but the mandate given by the electorate feels like its from a different century.
    To be fair, many including that lovely poster @CorrectHorseBattery, did say that it was inevitable with Johnson in charge that they would eventually fall hard. To much derision around the time of the Hartlepool by-election when people insisted Johnson would be in power for a decade and Starmer was at that point worse than Corbyn.

    My analysis has been quite consistent, I never believed the Tories were ever actually popular, I don't think they've been popular the entire time they've been in government. It's just that Labour have decided to be more unpopular. To me it isn't surprising that SKS is doing relatively well as he's the first non-unpopular leader they've chosen.

    If Labour had elected a better leader in 2010, they'd have been back into government years ago IMHO.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,468
    I don't believe in guilt by association, but Jeez..

    Man of the people, totally normal person
    @RobertKennedyJr after being asked about flying on JEFFREY EPSTEIN'S plane:

    "So and I run into everybody in New York. I mean, I knew Harvey Weinstein, I knew Roger Ailes, I knew -- O.J. Simpson came to my house. Bill Cosby came to my house.”

    https://twitter.com/Lis_Smith/status/1765564202851139851

    "Ghislaine was always wonderful to me."
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,561
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    He will be pleased, yes. And I think you're right that if he'd somehow survived the Cons would still be heading for defeat but a smaller one.

    At the same time I think they had to can him. His character defects had become too obvious. What they didn't have to do however, and by doing it they finished themselves off, was replace him with the utterly risible Liz Truss.
    Liz Truss' main failure - and I admit it was a big one - was believing that she could buck the market.

    What's curious about it is how it could have happened. How could a senior Tory have believed that they could bend the debt markets to their will, that the debt market would accept limitless British government borrowing at a low interest rate of her choosing, and convinced the rest of the party that she would be successful in such an endeavour?

    I remember the sense of astonishment I felt during the debate where she stated she would simply borrow more to fund her tax cuts, and she would renegotiate the national debt to pay a lower interest rate. And then it turned out she was in earnest!

    What has happened that means she wasn't simply laughed out of the contest, that even now she is fêted as a darling of the right?
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,276

    Roger said:

    A Cabinet Minister gratuitously libels an academic and then using an archaic convention gets the taxpayer to pay the £15,000 damages.

    The Leader of the House defends the Minister in Parliament by claiming that she is a person of integrity proven by the fact she had foregone £16,000 redundency for being fired after ONE day in Boris Johnson's Cabinet.

    The only surprise in today's People's Polling is that the Tories have managed 18%

    Meanwhile her partner and his family made serious coin out of Covid PPE contracts.
    Clearly a family of integrity

    https://goodlawproject.org/michelle-donelan-partner-contracts/

    Pass the sickbag Alice......

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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,404
    @SandyRentool was asking yesterday about the latest Jeremy Hunt newsreader slip. Social media has done its job and here it is:-
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1765734561407737974
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    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    edited March 8
    Also, Corbyn acted as a cover, you see the Tories doing badly now but they've been doing virtually identical things even when Johnson was in charge. They just hated Corbyn more.

    2019 will come to be seen as an outlier. If you look at it in those terms, 2010, 2015, 2017 look far more logical of a measure of how popular the Tories actually are.
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    Controversial idea: Kwasi Kwarteng was screwed over by Liz Truss and would not have presented any of her nutty ideas if he was in charge

    Not just a controversial idea, but also one that is utterly unsupported by evidence of any kind, and plainly wrong.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,340
    Nigelb said:

    ...

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lara_spirit
    Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times

    CON 20 (=)
    LAB 47 (+1)
    LIB DEM 9 (+2)
    REF UK 13 (-1)
    GRN 7 (=)

    Fieldwork 6 - 7 March

    Annoyingly that gives credence to Dr Badloss’s poll that was published last night.
    Wow... this correlates with people polling who have a 28 point labour lead. These numbers are just crazy. Again: I wonder when discipline crumbles inside the tory party. Right now they are just in a fetal position... but surely that can't go on. Anyway, I am not sure Sunak can hold the ship together till autumn.
    Sunak and the rest of them deserve it for plotting against Boris. I know politico’s love looking past the blatantly obvious, but it was blatantly obvious that sacking the leader who won a landslide after nine years of either being in coalition, supply & confidence, or a having tiny majority, was a humongous, terminal error, an up yours to the people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 that deserved maximum punishment; and that’s what they’re going to get.

    Boris must be laughing his head off
    Do you not understand Johnson set the train wreck in motion? He let the brake off at the top of a 2/1 incline and jumped clear before it build up a head of steam.

    If your party dies (I doubt it will) Johnson administered the first toxic dose.
    I'm not sure it's isam's party; it's rather that Boris has always been isam's guy.

    I might be unfair lumping him in with them, but there are a number of people who voted for Boris, and would do so again, who don't give a fig for the Conservative Party.
    TBF, neither does Boris.
    And there are a significant number of isams in the electorate and we see them in the Conservative to Reform switchers.

    But what we don't see, because they're less visible, are all the voters the Conservatives have held onto who would have left had BoJo remained PM. Because it wasn't just the parties. It was the lies in a context where you simply don't lie. It was Paterson. It was Pincher. And, had he stayed, there would likely have been other things.

    The Conservatives elevating Boris was a bit like communist countries doping their Olympic athletes. Short term performance boost, but you are left a shrivelled wreck a few years later.
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    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169

    Controversial idea: Kwasi Kwarteng was screwed over by Liz Truss and would not have presented any of her nutty ideas if he was in charge

    Not just a controversial idea, but also one that is utterly unsupported by evidence of any kind, and plainly wrong.
    I do not believe in any way, he would have implemented all of those nutty ideas in one go.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,158
    edited March 8
    Nigelb said:

    I don't believe in guilt by association, but Jeez..

    Man of the people, totally normal person
    @RobertKennedyJr after being asked about flying on JEFFREY EPSTEIN'S plane:

    "So and I run into everybody in New York. I mean, I knew Harvey Weinstein, I knew Roger Ailes, I knew -- O.J. Simpson came to my house. Bill Cosby came to my house.”

    https://twitter.com/Lis_Smith/status/1765564202851139851

    "Ghislaine was always wonderful to me."

    No doubt.

    Addendum - Am starting to think, that RFKjr is gonna underperform Kanye West. Certainly appears less qualified.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,043

    Also, Corbyn acted as a cover, you see the Tories doing badly now but they've been doing virtually identical things even when Johnson was in charge. They just hated Corbyn more.

    2019 will come to be seen as an outlier. If you look at it in those terms, 2010, 2015, 2017 look far more logical of a measure of how popular the Tories actually are.

    Will the 2019 General Election have the same historical context for the Conservatives as the 1906 one had for the Liberals...?
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    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    edited March 8
    @LostPassword

    Liz Truss and the Tories spent years saying Labour's plans would cause the economy to tank, we couldn't afford the borrowing etc.

    I have to admit I believed they were wrong but they proved themselves to be spot on in their analysis. So it is doubly odd to decide that would be the people to test this theory out.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,862

    Selebian said:

    Great thread @Malmesbury

    This is very true. Good admin is key. We also have oddities in some parts of the NHS where only doctors are permitted to do things that do not require someone with the knowledge and pay grade - e.g. some research sites will insist that doctors extract purely demographic data from health records (probably has to be someone in the care team for ethics/confidentiality, but theres no need for it to be a senior clinician - the care team administrator who accessed the records for other purposes such as booking appointments and adding results is perfectly qualified).

    Good admin is like good management. And is a part of it.

    Almost invisible if you don’t look carefully. You do your job, the staples are in the drawer, you are paid right, the right materials show up on time, the new tools seem to have ordered themselves. It’s the feeling of “there’s very little stopping me doing my actual job”.

    Once you’ve experienced that….
    Our present research group administrator normally gets in touch with me to arrange things - e.g. "this meeting next week, I've booked x room and catering and just need you to give me the ok"; "conference in May, I thought these flights looked best and this hotel which is also where Y is staying". Occasionally, if I'm really on it, I ask her to do something before she's told me that she's done it. But even then, she's normally done it or knows what she's going to do, just hasn't bothered me about it yet.

    When we were without an admin for a few months, due to Uni policy on not starting the recruiting process for admin until a post is actually vacant, I took probably 2x as long at at ~2x the wage (so ~4x the cost) to do a much worse job, quite possibly getting worse deals due to not knowing the systems and in that process I also had to bother another group's/more senior administrator to get me logged in to a system to get things paid or signed off.
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    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    Oh also, FYI my Dad despises Kemi Badenoch. She is not the one if they want to win again.
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