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George Osborne is right – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,040
    edited March 6
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    algarkirk said:

    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    Jesus Christ stop being so ridiculously unpleasant to @Colin

    By all means argue his points or examine his failings but trying to chase him off the site for “posting too many comments on his first day” is FUCKING RIDICULOUS

    Let’s face it this site is now down to an unappetising bunch of tedious Woke lawyers, accountants and retired IT nerds, and me and @BlancheLivermore

    We need fresh blood. Desperately. Don’t chase it away

    As @Colin asked for a photo I for one will be friendly and do as he requests

    I’ve just been for a dip in our local waterfall (under my hotel room). Omg it is Edenic. The butterflies dance over your head and the fish come up to say hello. Absolute bliss


    What the hell is that abomination of a beer?

    The word “light” should never appear on beer.
    I would hate to start an argument, but regardless of the merits of the word 'light' on beer, there is, I assert one interesting fact about beer. Which is that non-alcoholic beer actually tastes of beer, whereas non-alcoholic wine tastes of nothing interesting at all, and certainly has no relation to wine. Do others think the same?
    It wasn’t always so but it is now. I had Heineken Zero with my curry tonight. Was it as great as Kingfisher? No, but it was fine.

    I wonder if wines have just had less investment at the alcohol free end.
    Black Isle Brewery's zero alcohol beer is also fine. I much prefer it, or water, at lunchtime to conventional soft drinks.
    The closest alcohol free beer to the real thing that I have found is Guinness Zero. It certainly has more taste than most lagers, with or without alcohol.

    Incidentally, light was a type of Scottish beer, also called 60 shilling, that was the equivalent of Dark Mild. I say was, as it is now extremely rare.
  • Options
    ColinColin Posts: 70
    Nigelb said:

    Also on record as a Holocaust denier.

    Newly unearthed video of N.C. GOP gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson in 2020: "I absolutely want to go back to the America where women couldn’t vote."
    https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/1765494719772033443

    You see stuff like this circulating more and more online and of course politics is downstream of culture.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,032
    viewcode said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Boris Johnson succeeded in putting the Tories out of power for a generation it looks like.

    I think in years to come people will re-assess 2019 as the election that Jeremy Corbyn lost and Johnson got lucky.

    People will see Starmer as the heir to Johnson, continuing his Red, White and Blue Brexit policies.
    It's a constant source of wonder to me how so many people on here feel able to write the history of Keir Starmer's premiership before a single day of it has yet transpired. PBers are truly an impressive bunch.
    Obviously that's not a great idea, and but I suspect the predominant view of the future history of Starmer is similar to the view these futurist historians would take of any possible next PM of the UK.

    Which is that whoever wins next time operates in circumstances and constraints by which it is impossible to do well, and difficult to do OK.

    And the big bit of evidence for this is that in the realm of political commentary there are no big ideas that are both plausible and possible with respect to the politics, the economics or, in most cases, both. The UK's situation is that whatever your future vision you would not start from here.
    My three point proposal to transform Britain's prospects:

    1) Recreate Canary Wharf in Milton Keynes - set aside a couple of grid squares for high-rise skyscrapers as part of a plan to allow the population to grow up to a million
    2) Accelerate the East-West rail project to link it to Oxford and Cambridge
    3) Profit
    That's...actually quite a good idea. I shall steal it and pretend I thought of it. 😃
    Thinking along those lines (the details might need examining ?) is absolutely the sort of thing the next government ought to be doing.
    I’m happy to credit william, however much I might disagree with him on other stuff.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,882
    Leon said:

    This charming man.


    I'm beginning to think Fox might actually be a bit of a total f***ing arsehole on balance.

    I'd say it's the crippling cocaine habit talking, but I'm sure he's clean as a whistle on that front, and deplore any suggestion to the contrary.
    That posh twunt, Fox Hunt?

    I saw the picture of Hunt and thought you'd called him Fox, then zoomed in on the tweet

    Does Fox have a sister called Amelia?

    I think I met her very briefly about twenty years ago when the magazine I worked for did an interview with her
    Yes, cuz, Emilia
    Of course the whole family are the great grandchildren of...

    No, I'm going to stop that now. Enough fun, time to move on.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,568

    I've had a rather nice birthday off work and have just returned home from a lovely wine tasting dinner with my folks

    I started the day by walking their dog. At about 6:45 I got to the golf course and saw a very strange mist layer. It was about seven foot up and around eighteen inches thick. I hope you can see it in the picture



    Later on we got to the cemetery, where I remembered to include Edith for scale



    ETA - both are colour photos

    You’ve wandered onto the set of Silo?
  • Options
    BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,361
    viewcode said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Boris Johnson succeeded in putting the Tories out of power for a generation it looks like.

    I think in years to come people will re-assess 2019 as the election that Jeremy Corbyn lost and Johnson got lucky.

    People will see Starmer as the heir to Johnson, continuing his Red, White and Blue Brexit policies.
    It's a constant source of wonder to me how so many people on here feel able to write the history of Keir Starmer's premiership before a single day of it has yet transpired. PBers are truly an impressive bunch.
    Obviously that's not a great idea, and but I suspect the predominant view of the future history of Starmer is similar to the view these futurist historians would take of any possible next PM of the UK.

    Which is that whoever wins next time operates in circumstances and constraints by which it is impossible to do well, and difficult to do OK.

    And the big bit of evidence for this is that in the realm of political commentary there are no big ideas that are both plausible and possible with respect to the politics, the economics or, in most cases, both. The UK's situation is that whatever your future vision you would not start from here.
    My three point proposal to transform Britain's prospects:

    1) Recreate Canary Wharf in Milton Keynes - set aside a couple of grid squares for high-rise skyscrapers as part of a plan to allow the population to grow up to a million
    2) Accelerate the East-West rail project to link it to Oxford and Cambridge
    3) Profit
    That's...actually quite a good idea. I shall steal it and pretend I thought of it. 😃
    How about a new waterway to join them all?
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,980
    Leon said:

    I’ve slightly fallen for a beautiful Swiss singer who is part of the ayahuasquero squad here in Dorado, Colombia

    I keep trying not to look at her. it’s really hard. Whenever she walks past - no, glides past - I have to stare hard at my screen and pretend to be typing something massively important whereas in fact I;m just wittering on here about fish and chip wrappers

    Hopefully she doesn’t read PB. If she does, fuck it, Danit, I am in love with you, you petite Swiss beauty with the long swaying hair, please come and live with me in a beach hut on a Cambodian island

    There. I feel better now. Unburdened of my pathetic yearning. Thanks

    'Danit' does add a quite sweet, faintly trans aspect to this otherwise creepy story. I am almost looking forward to a gazette article about how Massively Importantand hot "Danit's" big beach hut was now.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,666
    Leon said:

    I’ve slightly fallen for a beautiful Swiss singer who is part of the ayahuasquero squad here in Dorado, Colombia

    I keep trying not to look at her. it’s really hard. Whenever she walks past - no, glides past - I have to stare hard at my screen and pretend to be typing something massively important whereas in fact I;m just wittering on here about fish and chip wrappers

    Hopefully she doesn’t read PB. If she does, fuck it, Danit, I am in love with you, you petite Swiss beauty with the long swaying hair, please come and live with me in a beach hut on a Cambodian island

    There. I feel better now. Unburdened of my pathetic yearning. Thanks

    Your welcome.
  • Options
    ColinColin Posts: 70
    Pertinent to my point about how now things seem to get better as you go east this is professor sikoras take on the polish health system.

    Enjoying a rainy Krakow - visiting cancer centres in Poland!

    The Polish system puts the NHS to shame.

    We just seem to accept too easily how appalling NHS performance has become - British patients deserve so much better.

    https://x.com/ProfKarolSikora/status/1765429221348843538?s=20
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,980
    IanB2 said:

    I've had a rather nice birthday off work and have just returned home from a lovely wine tasting dinner with my folks

    I started the day by walking their dog. At about 6:45 I got to the golf course and saw a very strange mist layer. It was about seven foot up and around eighteen inches thick. I hope you can see it in the picture



    Later on we got to the cemetery, where I remembered to include Edith for scale



    ETA - both are colour photos

    You’ve wandered onto the set of Silo?
    Or 'Children of the Stones'.

    For which I will doubly regret not being able to see who 'likes' the post.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,688
    edited March 6
    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    I’ve slightly fallen for a beautiful Swiss singer who is part of the ayahuasquero squad here in Dorado, Colombia

    I keep trying not to look at her. it’s really hard. Whenever she walks past - no, glides past - I have to stare hard at my screen and pretend to be typing something massively important whereas in fact I;m just wittering on here about fish and chip wrappers

    Hopefully she doesn’t read PB. If she does, fuck it, Danit, I am in love with you, you petite Swiss beauty with the long swaying hair, please come and live with me in a beach hut on a Cambodian island

    There. I feel better now. Unburdened of my pathetic yearning. Thanks

    'Danit' does add a quite sweet, faintly trans aspect to this otherwise creepy story. I am almost looking forward to a gazette article about how Massively Importantand hot "Danit's" big beach hut was now.
    Why is it creepy? The age gap? She could be 58, for all you know

    Unless you’re saying 58 year old women can’t be beautiful, you sexist, ageist, misogynist knobhead-dork
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,980
    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    I’ve slightly fallen for a beautiful Swiss singer who is part of the ayahuasquero squad here in Dorado, Colombia

    I keep trying not to look at her. it’s really hard. Whenever she walks past - no, glides past - I have to stare hard at my screen and pretend to be typing something massively important whereas in fact I;m just wittering on here about fish and chip wrappers

    Hopefully she doesn’t read PB. If she does, fuck it, Danit, I am in love with you, you petite Swiss beauty with the long swaying hair, please come and live with me in a beach hut on a Cambodian island

    There. I feel better now. Unburdened of my pathetic yearning. Thanks

    'Danit' does add a quite sweet, faintly trans aspect to this otherwise creepy story. I am almost looking forward to a gazette article about how Massively Importantand hot "Danit's" big beach hut was now.
    Why is it creepy? The age gap? She could be 58, for all you know

    Unless you’re saying 58 year old women can’t be beautiful, you sexist and misogynist weirdo
    It just reads creepy. All round. In every aspect. All of them.
  • Options
    BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,361

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Has to be said it's good to see that PB was well ahead of the curve on NI and Hunt has pointed out the obvious about how destructive it is to penalise work with extra taxes (or reward idleness with fewer, depending on one's outlook).

    I think we've been talking about NI being a tax on working people for at least 4 or 5 years. Using fiscal drag on income tax to eliminate NI in a revenue neutral way is a probably going to be Rishi and Hunt's lasting legacy. The thresholds will be quite low compared to incomes but at least tax rates will be transparent and equal for every kind of income.

    There's a part of me earlier today that wondered whether our conversations have helped move the Overton Window towards recognising the harm in NI?

    As you say we were ahead of the curve and have been talking about it for years, and I believe many politicians (and advisors etc) lurk here.

    Curious if it's a coincidence or if the conversations here have helped shape the agenda? Either way, it's a bloody good thing it's being addressed and I hope that Starmer recognises it too and continues the good work.
    There have been a few moments like that over the last decade where specific ideas from here seem to end up turning into policy. Once or twice lifted word for word.
    We were ahead of the curve in recognising the housing shortage being a major problem.

    Now even NIMBY politicians are prefacing their arguments with "of course we need more homes but (insert BS argument like it should be on brownfield instead)"

    Of course, as always, ignore everything before the but.
    The national living wage is one I remember. I remember banging on about pushing up the minimum wage and using it as a tool for poverty reduction and slowly eliminating wage subsidies like tax credits. Around a year or so after I started banging on about it here a few Tory think tanks also started banging on about the idea too and in the 2015 post election budget Osborne introduced tha national living wage for everyone aged of 24 or over and now everyone aged 21 or over qualifies and will earn £11.44 or ~£24k per year for a full time worker, taking a double income household with two people working full time well above the poverty line and far above the thresholds for tax credits.
    A pedant posts: it's £10.42 per hour atm, £11.44 from April.

    A single parent, two children, social housing rent say £750pm working 40 hours at minimum wage will still get (and require imo) UC - of over £1000pm. The rise in the minimum wage to £11.44 reduces that by about £70pm.
    Working forty hours each and every single month of the whole year?
    Hah nice one. No, my figures are based on 40 hours per week at minimum wage, I should have made that clear.
    So an extra 102p each hour, for 175 hours in the month, only adds/saves £70? Where does the other £110 go?
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    viewcode said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Boris Johnson succeeded in putting the Tories out of power for a generation it looks like.

    I think in years to come people will re-assess 2019 as the election that Jeremy Corbyn lost and Johnson got lucky.

    People will see Starmer as the heir to Johnson, continuing his Red, White and Blue Brexit policies.
    It's a constant source of wonder to me how so many people on here feel able to write the history of Keir Starmer's premiership before a single day of it has yet transpired. PBers are truly an impressive bunch.
    Obviously that's not a great idea, and but I suspect the predominant view of the future history of Starmer is similar to the view these futurist historians would take of any possible next PM of the UK.

    Which is that whoever wins next time operates in circumstances and constraints by which it is impossible to do well, and difficult to do OK.

    And the big bit of evidence for this is that in the realm of political commentary there are no big ideas that are both plausible and possible with respect to the politics, the economics or, in most cases, both. The UK's situation is that whatever your future vision you would not start from here.
    My three point proposal to transform Britain's prospects:

    1) Recreate Canary Wharf in Milton Keynes - set aside a couple of grid squares for high-rise skyscrapers as part of a plan to allow the population to grow up to a million
    2) Accelerate the East-West rail project to link it to Oxford and Cambridge
    3) Profit
    That's...actually quite a good idea. I shall steal it and pretend I thought of it. 😃
    I have a counter-proposal for Milton Keynes. It involves a second Trident test to show it really works….
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,032
    Possible treatment for pancreatic cancer discovered.
    https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2024/03/427231/can-new-drug-candidate-cure-pancreatic-cancer

    It killed my great uncle. A very nasty disease with no good treatment options.
  • Options
    ColinColin Posts: 70
    I was in krakow a couple of years ago. As i walked round i thought this is what england should be like.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,040
    ohnotnow said:

    IanB2 said:

    I've had a rather nice birthday off work and have just returned home from a lovely wine tasting dinner with my folks

    I started the day by walking their dog. At about 6:45 I got to the golf course and saw a very strange mist layer. It was about seven foot up and around eighteen inches thick. I hope you can see it in the picture



    Later on we got to the cemetery, where I remembered to include Edith for scale



    ETA - both are colour photos

    You’ve wandered onto the set of Silo?
    Or 'Children of the Stones'.

    For which I will doubly regret not being able to see who 'likes' the post.
    It was me. Still am processing.
  • Options
    ColinColin Posts: 70
    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    I’ve slightly fallen for a beautiful Swiss singer who is part of the ayahuasquero squad here in Dorado, Colombia

    I keep trying not to look at her. it’s really hard. Whenever she walks past - no, glides past - I have to stare hard at my screen and pretend to be typing something massively important whereas in fact I;m just wittering on here about fish and chip wrappers

    Hopefully she doesn’t read PB. If she does, fuck it, Danit, I am in love with you, you petite Swiss beauty with the long swaying hair, please come and live with me in a beach hut on a Cambodian island

    There. I feel better now. Unburdened of my pathetic yearning. Thanks

    'Danit' does add a quite sweet, faintly trans aspect to this otherwise creepy story. I am almost looking forward to a gazette article about how Massively Importantand hot "Danit's" big beach hut was now.
    Why is it creepy? The age gap? She could be 58, for all you know

    Unless you’re saying 58 year old women can’t be beautiful, you sexist, ageist, misogynist knobhead-dork
    More ludicrous wokism Leon. Shaming of age gap relationships is a peculiarly western thing much of it driven by middle aged women not liking the competition.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,688
    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    I’ve slightly fallen for a beautiful Swiss singer who is part of the ayahuasquero squad here in Dorado, Colombia

    I keep trying not to look at her. it’s really hard. Whenever she walks past - no, glides past - I have to stare hard at my screen and pretend to be typing something massively important whereas in fact I;m just wittering on here about fish and chip wrappers

    Hopefully she doesn’t read PB. If she does, fuck it, Danit, I am in love with you, you petite Swiss beauty with the long swaying hair, please come and live with me in a beach hut on a Cambodian island

    There. I feel better now. Unburdened of my pathetic yearning. Thanks

    'Danit' does add a quite sweet, faintly trans aspect to this otherwise creepy story. I am almost looking forward to a gazette article about how Massively Importantand hot "Danit's" big beach hut was now.
    Why is it creepy? The age gap? She could be 58, for all you know

    Unless you’re saying 58 year old women can’t be beautiful, you sexist and misogynist weirdo
    It just reads creepy. All round. In every aspect. All of them.
    It’s called human desire. Lol

    Have you never found someone so attractive you just want to keep looking at them? It’s how babies are eventually made

    However, social niceties correctly insist that it IS a bit rude and creepy to keep staring at someone so I don’t. But because she is very comely it is actually a conscious effort to stop looking

    It doesn’t help that she is well aware of her beauty and flamboyantly ties back her long scented hair every five minutes, and is also extremely flirtatious (not just with me, with most males, as far as i can see). And I suspect I am not the only man here who keeps trying not to look at her. Indeed I know I am not. My mate just said the same thing

    Ah, the human condition
  • Options
    BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,361

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Has to be said it's good to see that PB was well ahead of the curve on NI and Hunt has pointed out the obvious about how destructive it is to penalise work with extra taxes (or reward idleness with fewer, depending on one's outlook).

    I think we've been talking about NI being a tax on working people for at least 4 or 5 years. Using fiscal drag on income tax to eliminate NI in a revenue neutral way is a probably going to be Rishi and Hunt's lasting legacy. The thresholds will be quite low compared to incomes but at least tax rates will be transparent and equal for every kind of income.

    There's a part of me earlier today that wondered whether our conversations have helped move the Overton Window towards recognising the harm in NI?

    As you say we were ahead of the curve and have been talking about it for years, and I believe many politicians (and advisors etc) lurk here.

    Curious if it's a coincidence or if the conversations here have helped shape the agenda? Either way, it's a bloody good thing it's being addressed and I hope that Starmer recognises it too and continues the good work.
    There have been a few moments like that over the last decade where specific ideas from here seem to end up turning into policy. Once or twice lifted word for word.
    We were ahead of the curve in recognising the housing shortage being a major problem.

    Now even NIMBY politicians are prefacing their arguments with "of course we need more homes but (insert BS argument like it should be on brownfield instead)"

    Of course, as always, ignore everything before the but.
    The national living wage is one I remember. I remember banging on about pushing up the minimum wage and using it as a tool for poverty reduction and slowly eliminating wage subsidies like tax credits. Around a year or so after I started banging on about it here a few Tory think tanks also started banging on about the idea too and in the 2015 post election budget Osborne introduced tha national living wage for everyone aged of 24 or over and now everyone aged 21 or over qualifies and will earn £11.44 or ~£24k per year for a full time worker, taking a double income household with two people working full time well above the poverty line and far above the thresholds for tax credits.
    A pedant posts: it's £10.42 per hour atm, £11.44 from April.

    A single parent, two children, social housing rent say £750pm working 40 hours at minimum wage will still get (and require imo) UC - of over £1000pm. The rise in the minimum wage to £11.44 reduces that by about £70pm.
    Working forty hours each and every single month of the whole year?
    Hah nice one. No, my figures are based on 40 hours per week at minimum wage, I should have made that clear.
    So an extra 102p each hour, for 175 hours in the month, only adds/saves £70? Where does the other £110 go?
    I think I've got it

    The worker gets to keep the £110 after the £70 quid reduction in benefits?
  • Options
    ColinColin Posts: 70
    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    I’ve slightly fallen for a beautiful Swiss singer who is part of the ayahuasquero squad here in Dorado, Colombia

    I keep trying not to look at her. it’s really hard. Whenever she walks past - no, glides past - I have to stare hard at my screen and pretend to be typing something massively important whereas in fact I;m just wittering on here about fish and chip wrappers

    Hopefully she doesn’t read PB. If she does, fuck it, Danit, I am in love with you, you petite Swiss beauty with the long swaying hair, please come and live with me in a beach hut on a Cambodian island

    There. I feel better now. Unburdened of my pathetic yearning. Thanks

    'Danit' does add a quite sweet, faintly trans aspect to this otherwise creepy story. I am almost looking forward to a gazette article about how Massively Importantand hot "Danit's" big beach hut was now.
    Why is it creepy? The age gap? She could be 58, for all you know

    Unless you’re saying 58 year old women can’t be beautiful, you sexist and misogynist weirdo
    It just reads creepy. All round. In every aspect. All of them.
    It’s called human desire. Lol

    Have you never found someone so attractive you just want to keep looking at them? It’s how babies are eventually made

    However, social niceties correctly insist that it IS a bit rude and creepy to keep staring at someone so I don’t. But because she is very comely it is actually a conscious effort to stop looking

    It doesn’t help that she is well aware of her beauty and flamboyantly ties back her long scented hair every five minutes, and is also extremely flirtatious (not just with me, with most males, as far as i can see). And I suspect I am not the only man here who keeps trying not to look at her. Indeed I know I am not. My mate just said the same thing

    Ah, the human condition
    Yes the word creepy is much overused now Leon again spread into the culture by sex hating feminists.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,231
    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Boris Johnson succeeded in putting the Tories out of power for a generation it looks like.

    I think in years to come people will re-assess 2019 as the election that Jeremy Corbyn lost and Johnson got lucky.

    People will see Starmer as the heir to Johnson, continuing his Red, White and Blue Brexit policies.
    It's a constant source of wonder to me how so many people on here feel able to write the history of Keir Starmer's premiership before a single day of it has yet transpired. PBers are truly an impressive bunch.
    Obviously that's not a great idea, and but I suspect the predominant view of the future history of Starmer is similar to the view these futurist historians would take of any possible next PM of the UK.

    Which is that whoever wins next time operates in circumstances and constraints by which it is impossible to do well, and difficult to do OK.

    And the big bit of evidence for this is that in the realm of political commentary there are no big ideas that are both plausible and possible with respect to the politics, the economics or, in most cases, both. The UK's situation is that whatever your future vision you would not start from here.
    My three point proposal to transform Britain's prospects:

    1) Recreate Canary Wharf in Milton Keynes - set aside a couple of grid squares for high-rise skyscrapers as part of a plan to allow the population to grow up to a million
    2) Accelerate the East-West rail project to link it to Oxford and Cambridge
    3) Profit
    That's...actually quite a good idea. I shall steal it and pretend I thought of it. 😃
    Thinking along those lines (the details might need examining ?) is absolutely the sort of thing the next government ought to be doing.
    I’m happy to credit william, however much I might disagree with him on other stuff.
    It has the benefit of being tangible and has a clear rationale that's easy to explain and understand. You could also do it without any wild experiments in abolishing the green belt or overturning the planning system so wouldn't generate the same opposition as a vague plan to fill the country with new build estates.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,688
    Colin said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    I’ve slightly fallen for a beautiful Swiss singer who is part of the ayahuasquero squad here in Dorado, Colombia

    I keep trying not to look at her. it’s really hard. Whenever she walks past - no, glides past - I have to stare hard at my screen and pretend to be typing something massively important whereas in fact I;m just wittering on here about fish and chip wrappers

    Hopefully she doesn’t read PB. If she does, fuck it, Danit, I am in love with you, you petite Swiss beauty with the long swaying hair, please come and live with me in a beach hut on a Cambodian island

    There. I feel better now. Unburdened of my pathetic yearning. Thanks

    'Danit' does add a quite sweet, faintly trans aspect to this otherwise creepy story. I am almost looking forward to a gazette article about how Massively Importantand hot "Danit's" big beach hut was now.
    Why is it creepy? The age gap? She could be 58, for all you know

    Unless you’re saying 58 year old women can’t be beautiful, you sexist and misogynist weirdo
    It just reads creepy. All round. In every aspect. All of them.
    It’s called human desire. Lol

    Have you never found someone so attractive you just want to keep looking at them? It’s how babies are eventually made

    However, social niceties correctly insist that it IS a bit rude and creepy to keep staring at someone so I don’t. But because she is very comely it is actually a conscious effort to stop looking

    It doesn’t help that she is well aware of her beauty and flamboyantly ties back her long scented hair every five minutes, and is also extremely flirtatious (not just with me, with most males, as far as i can see). And I suspect I am not the only man here who keeps trying not to look at her. Indeed I know I am not. My mate just said the same thing

    Ah, the human condition
    Yes the word creepy is much overused now Leon again spread into the culture by sex hating feminists.
    @ohnotnow seems to be saying that it is creepy to find other people beautiful and sexually attractive

    How does anyone end up with such desolate opinions?
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,131
    Leon said:

    sarissa said:

    biggles said:

    Nigelb said:
    If this were a pub quiz, I’d have guessed far earlier than 400m years for the first trees. Earth was super-dull for the first 4Bn years then.
    They're not really 'trees' as we know them either, more like gigantic horsetail ferns.

    Then again land plants only appeared 425m years ago according to wiki so yes Earth, at least dry land, was super dull for 4bn years.
    Amazing to think that only 15 million years later there was a fully developed ecosystem:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhynie_chert
    I remember being told when lying in a billabong on a cliff on the Kimberley Coast of Australia that the rocks around there are so old they were formed before the sky was blue
    Australia has a fascinating geographical history. Basically it's a continent that got bored and went on a wander and did some really weird shit for a few eons. I assume this is why you liked it.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,666
    [pulls knowing smirk, and winks]

    😉

    Podium and Crest watch begins at dawn.

    You are going to steal Labours money raising policies and ask them how they they intend to fix the hole in their plan

    giving them six months to come up with something?

    or

    At the last moment before you call that election?
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,131
    Nigelb said:

    Also on record as a Holocaust denier.

    Newly unearthed video of N.C. GOP gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson in 2020: "I absolutely want to go back to the America where women couldn’t vote."
    https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/1765494719772033443

    He'll win Texas then.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,040
    edited March 6

    [pulls knowing smirk, and winks]

    😉

    Podium and Crest watch begins at dawn.

    You are going to steal Labours money raising policies and ask them how they they intend to fix the hole in their plan

    giving them six months to come up with something?

    or

    At the last moment before you call that election?

    Bring it on.
    If that's their cunning plan can we just get on with it?
  • Options
    ColinColin Posts: 70
    Leon said:

    Colin said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    I’ve slightly fallen for a beautiful Swiss singer who is part of the ayahuasquero squad here in Dorado, Colombia

    I keep trying not to look at her. it’s really hard. Whenever she walks past - no, glides past - I have to stare hard at my screen and pretend to be typing something massively important whereas in fact I;m just wittering on here about fish and chip wrappers

    Hopefully she doesn’t read PB. If she does, fuck it, Danit, I am in love with you, you petite Swiss beauty with the long swaying hair, please come and live with me in a beach hut on a Cambodian island

    There. I feel better now. Unburdened of my pathetic yearning. Thanks

    'Danit' does add a quite sweet, faintly trans aspect to this otherwise creepy story. I am almost looking forward to a gazette article about how Massively Importantand hot "Danit's" big beach hut was now.
    Why is it creepy? The age gap? She could be 58, for all you know

    Unless you’re saying 58 year old women can’t be beautiful, you sexist and misogynist weirdo
    It just reads creepy. All round. In every aspect. All of them.
    It’s called human desire. Lol

    Have you never found someone so attractive you just want to keep looking at them? It’s how babies are eventually made

    However, social niceties correctly insist that it IS a bit rude and creepy to keep staring at someone so I don’t. But because she is very comely it is actually a conscious effort to stop looking

    It doesn’t help that she is well aware of her beauty and flamboyantly ties back her long scented hair every five minutes, and is also extremely flirtatious (not just with me, with most males, as far as i can see). And I suspect I am not the only man here who keeps trying not to look at her. Indeed I know I am not. My mate just said the same thing

    Ah, the human condition
    Yes the word creepy is much overused now Leon again spread into the culture by sex hating feminists.
    @ohnotnow seems to be saying that it is creepy to find other people beautiful and sexually attractive

    How does anyone end up with such desolate opinions?
    Always very suspicious of men like that. Often the nastiest human beings.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,131
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    biggles said:

    biggles said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    algarkirk said:

    eek said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    The Child Benefit withdrawal changes look like the biggest middle-class tax break.

    Moving it from £50–60k, to £60-80k is a huge difference.

    Nobody thinks about the poor pensioners
    Who are still benefiting from the triple lock.

    And if pensioners don't like Rishi who else have they got to vote for?
    The full state pension is £11,502 pa, 2024/25. Roughly half the minimum wage. It is not unrealistic to ensure that it doesn't lose its already small value. Plenty of pensioners (thankfully I am not one of them) live on not very much.
    But the converse is also true. Many pensioners live on a hell of a lot at a time in life when their outgoings are usually low: no mortgage, no student loans, no commuting costs, kids off their hands etc. By focusing on universal benefits such as the pension we spend our money incredibly inefficiently leaving not enough for those genuinely in need.
    So focus on the ones that do live on a hell of a lot, and leave the rest alone.
    We need to stop giving them money. Personally I would taper the pension for anyone whose personal pensions were worth more than 2x the pension. But then, I am not looking to be elected.
    You are setting up a moral hazard there. Why save for a pension if the government is just going to claw it back. Why not spend the money on avocado toast, lattes and cocaine?
    Your local greasy spoon has a more adventurous menu than mine.
    Yes, I've yet to find avocado toast at a greasy spoon.
    That's kind of self-fulfilling isn't it? Anywhere serving avocado toast is not going to be classed as a greasy spoon, though it may well be a cafe serving full English breakfasts alongside other offerings.

    So, how do we define 'greasy spoon'?

    While we're on the subject of breakfasts can I post a lament for the now near-extinct fried-bread? Once an essential constituent of the full English, now lamentably replaced by that godawful American import hash browns (aka mass produced potato chipboard).

    There, that feels better.
    Also black pudding. Good places still do it, but it’s dying out, rarely get a good peppery one with lumps of fat.

    And mugs of tea.

    And tea in polystyrene cups on the roadside. It tastes better than the papery ones.
    Did fish and chips taste better when wrapped in newspaper?

    They probably didn’t. Indeed they probably only used newspaper for the outer wrapping?

    But it was romantic and they DID taste better, dammit
    If you like black pudding, you should give this place a try if you ever go to Seoul.

    'Sundae,' Korean street food reborn as fine dining
    https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/culture/2024/03/135_369841.html#

    The various types of offal puddings are a staple of Korean cuisine.
    I love Korean food

    There’s a good article in the Guardian today about the triumph of Korean soft power - from music to food to cosmetics, TV, movies, art, it is extraordinary. Plus their incredible industrial prowess, in a nation that was as poor as sub Saharan Africa, and basically smashed to pieces by civil war, all within living memory

    And yet this same remarkable nation is literally dying out coz they won’t have babies. I wonder if there is some link between the two phenomena, indeed I suspect there must be
    There is. They started off with a young population. Young people produce more than they consume. They moved to cities. Young couples in cities have fewer children than rurals, because of space. They built factories and exported due to globalisation. But as they aged they hit a problem: older people consume more than they produce. The retreat of the US from hegemony means less globalisation, so they can't export out of it, and the insufficient child number means they can't generate internal growth.

    In short: South Korea took advantage of post WWII factors for dramatic growth, but those factors are now in retreat. Zeihan's got some stuff on YouTube about this.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,666
    dixiedean said:

    [pulls knowing smirk, and winks]

    😉

    Podium and Crest watch begins at dawn.

    You are going to steal Labours money raising policies and ask them how they they intend to fix the hole in their plan

    giving them six months to come up with something?

    or

    At the last moment before you call that election?

    Bring it on.
    If that's their cunning plan can we just get on with it?
    You sure? Labour are now down to just one distinctive tax policy, and a gaping hole below the waterline of their manifesto, and maybe less than 11 hours before the election is called.

    If that’s not a rabbit from the hat, what is?

    Never rush to judge a budget.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,131

    I've had a rather nice birthday off work and have just returned home from a lovely wine tasting dinner with my folks

    I started the day by walking their dog. At about 6:45 I got to the golf course and saw a very strange mist layer. It was about seven foot up and around eighteen inches thick. I hope you can see it in the picture



    Later on we got to the cemetery, where I remembered to include Edith for scale



    ETA - both are colour photos

    Those are quite beautiful. Please thank yourself and Edith T. Dog.


  • Options
    ColinColin Posts: 70
    REPORT: The New York Times reports that Elon Musk met with Donald Trump in Palm Beach, Florida with wealthy Republican donors on Sunday.

    Epic if true

    According to the source who spoke with the NYT, Trump has been praising Musk to close allies and says he hopes to have a one-on-one meeting with Musk soon.

    It is worth noting that it is unknown if Musk has any plans of contributing to Trump's campaign.

    Here is what Trump previously had to say about Musk during an interview with CNBC.


    https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1765180141259641194?s=20
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,131
    edited March 6
    Colin said:

    Leon said:

    Colin said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    I’ve slightly fallen for a beautiful Swiss singer who is part of the ayahuasquero squad here in Dorado, Colombia

    I keep trying not to look at her. it’s really hard. Whenever she walks past - no, glides past - I have to stare hard at my screen and pretend to be typing something massively important whereas in fact I;m just wittering on here about fish and chip wrappers

    Hopefully she doesn’t read PB. If she does, fuck it, Danit, I am in love with you, you petite Swiss beauty with the long swaying hair, please come and live with me in a beach hut on a Cambodian island

    There. I feel better now. Unburdened of my pathetic yearning. Thanks

    'Danit' does add a quite sweet, faintly trans aspect to this otherwise creepy story. I am almost looking forward to a gazette article about how Massively Importantand hot "Danit's" big beach hut was now.
    Why is it creepy? The age gap? She could be 58, for all you know

    Unless you’re saying 58 year old women can’t be beautiful, you sexist and misogynist weirdo
    It just reads creepy. All round. In every aspect. All of them.
    It’s called human desire. Lol

    Have you never found someone so attractive you just want to keep looking at them? It’s how babies are eventually made

    However, social niceties correctly insist that it IS a bit rude and creepy to keep staring at someone so I don’t. But because she is very comely it is actually a conscious effort to stop looking

    It doesn’t help that she is well aware of her beauty and flamboyantly ties back her long scented hair every five minutes, and is also extremely flirtatious (not just with me, with most males, as far as i can see). And I suspect I am not the only man here who keeps trying not to look at her. Indeed I know I am not. My mate just said the same thing

    Ah, the human condition
    Yes the word creepy is much overused now Leon again spread into the culture by sex hating feminists.
    @ohnotnow seems to be saying that it is creepy to find other people beautiful and sexually attractive

    How does anyone end up with such desolate opinions?
    Always very suspicious of men like that. Often the nastiest human beings.
    "What's that Mr Flibble? Oh we couldn't possibly do that. That would be horrible."
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,195
    Colin said:

    REPORT: The New York Times reports that Elon Musk met with Donald Trump in Palm Beach, Florida with wealthy Republican donors on Sunday.

    Epic if true

    According to the source who spoke with the NYT, Trump has been praising Musk to close allies and says he hopes to have a one-on-one meeting with Musk soon.

    It is worth noting that it is unknown if Musk has any plans of contributing to Trump's campaign.

    Here is what Trump previously had to say about Musk during an interview with CNBC.


    https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1765180141259641194?s=20

    Musk was on Trump's committee for promoting American manufacturing last time, and sloped off in a huff.

    But there's an interesting question here: Musk's wealth is tied up in Tesla, and the (would be) Trump administration is not exactly keen on EVs. So... is it really in his interest for Trump to be elected?

    On the other hand, it is absolutely in Musk's interest to get Trump back on Twitter.

    I imagine Mr Musk would be willing to float all kinds of possibilities to get DJT back and posting.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,131
    ohnotnow said:

    IanB2 said:

    I've had a rather nice birthday off work and have just returned home from a lovely wine tasting dinner with my folks

    I started the day by walking their dog. At about 6:45 I got to the golf course and saw a very strange mist layer. It was about seven foot up and around eighteen inches thick. I hope you can see it in the picture



    Later on we got to the cemetery, where I remembered to include Edith for scale



    ETA - both are colour photos

    You’ve wandered onto the set of Silo?
    Or 'Children of the Stones'.

    For which I will doubly regret not being able to see who 'likes' the post.
    I now have the "Children Of The Stones" spooky music in my head, so thank you for that (sleeps with light on and open eyes)
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,149
    Nigelb said:

    Thank you Speaker Johnson.

    “It was the lack of ammunition,” said Shaman, whose battalion was deployed to Avdiivka in October when the Russians began a new offensive against the city. “No question.”
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1765379008760312226

    208 Dems were happy to bring down McCarthy on behalf of Matt Gaetz.

    Without it seems caring about the consequences or having any sort of plan for what happened afterwards.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,019
    Fuel duty has now been frozen for 14 years in a row. In that time, rail fares have increased by 65%.

    I appreciate it's not a 1:1 comparison, and costs (particularly insurance) have gone up for drivers too. But just consider that the next time you complain about potholes, congestion etc etc
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,231
    edited March 6
    Terfwar escalation:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1765484416275472570

    @IndiaWilloughby has called the police and reported @jk_rowling for an alleged hate crime for misgendering her.

    This could lead to Rowling’s arrest.


    https://x.com/jk_rowling/status/1765518909413716225

    Surprisingly for such an eminent legal authority, he appears to have forgotten that the Forstater ruling established that gender critical views can be protected in law as a philosophical belief. No law compels anyone to pretend to believe that India is a woman.

    Aware as I am that it's an offence to lie to law enforcement, I'll simply have to explain to the police that, in my view, India is a classic example of the male narcissist who lives in a state of perpetual rage that he can't compel women to take him at his own valuation.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,605

    Terfwar escalation:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1765484416275472570

    @IndiaWilloughby has called the police and reported @jk_rowling for an alleged hate crime for misgendering her.

    This could lead to Rowling’s arrest.


    https://x.com/jk_rowling/status/1765518909413716225

    Surprisingly for such an eminent legal authority, he appears to have forgotten that the Forstater ruling established that gender critical views can be protected in law as a philosophical belief. No law compels anyone to pretend to believe that India is a woman.

    Aware as I am that it's an offence to lie to law enforcement, I'll simply have to explain to the police that, in my view, India is a classic example of the male narcissist who lives in a state of perpetual rage that he can't compel women to take him at his own valuation.

    Context:

    https://www.express.co.uk/celebrity-news/1874361/jk-rowling-misgender-loose-women-india-willoughby-twitter
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,688
    rcs1000 said:

    Colin said:

    REPORT: The New York Times reports that Elon Musk met with Donald Trump in Palm Beach, Florida with wealthy Republican donors on Sunday.

    Epic if true

    According to the source who spoke with the NYT, Trump has been praising Musk to close allies and says he hopes to have a one-on-one meeting with Musk soon.

    It is worth noting that it is unknown if Musk has any plans of contributing to Trump's campaign.

    Here is what Trump previously had to say about Musk during an interview with CNBC.


    https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1765180141259641194?s=20

    Musk was on Trump's committee for promoting American manufacturing last time, and sloped off in a huff.

    But there's an interesting question here: Musk's wealth is tied up in Tesla, and the (would be) Trump administration is not exactly keen on EVs. So... is it really in his interest for Trump to be elected?

    On the other hand, it is absolutely in Musk's interest to get Trump back on Twitter.

    I imagine Mr Musk would be willing to float all kinds of possibilities to get DJT back and posting.
    Musk would also dearly love Trump’s assistance in helping him catch up with Google and Microsoft/OpenAI in AI

    Musk knows this is the biggest game in town, perhaps the only game, See the half redacted correspondence in his OpenAI litigation. It is intensely revealing. If OpenAI get to AGI first and by a distance they could crush everyone else in every field, including Musk

    Only the USG would have the power to alter things, at that point

    Biden is no fan of Musk and vice versa, Musk genuinely detests Democrat Wokeness

    So Musk is left with dwindling options and I can see Musk swallowing his doubts about Trump’s sanity and suitability and helping out the Donald with a couple of billion. It would be more than repaid if it helps Trump win
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,321
    edited March 6

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Has to be said it's good to see that PB was well ahead of the curve on NI and Hunt has pointed out the obvious about how destructive it is to penalise work with extra taxes (or reward idleness with fewer, depending on one's outlook).

    I think we've been talking about NI being a tax on working people for at least 4 or 5 years. Using fiscal drag on income tax to eliminate NI in a revenue neutral way is a probably going to be Rishi and Hunt's lasting legacy. The thresholds will be quite low compared to incomes but at least tax rates will be transparent and equal for every kind of income.

    There's a part of me earlier today that wondered whether our conversations have helped move the Overton Window towards recognising the harm in NI?

    As you say we were ahead of the curve and have been talking about it for years, and I believe many politicians (and advisors etc) lurk here.

    Curious if it's a coincidence or if the conversations here have helped shape the agenda? Either way, it's a bloody good thing it's being addressed and I hope that Starmer recognises it too and continues the good work.
    There have been a few moments like that over the last decade where specific ideas from here seem to end up turning into policy. Once or twice lifted word for word.
    We were ahead of the curve in recognising the housing shortage being a major problem.

    Now even NIMBY politicians are prefacing their arguments with "of course we need more homes but (insert BS argument like it should be on brownfield instead)"

    Of course, as always, ignore everything before the but.
    The national living wage is one I remember. I remember banging on about pushing up the minimum wage and using it as a tool for poverty reduction and slowly eliminating wage subsidies like tax credits. Around a year or so after I started banging on about it here a few Tory think tanks also started banging on about the idea too and in the 2015 post election budget Osborne introduced tha national living wage for everyone aged of 24 or over and now everyone aged 21 or over qualifies and will earn £11.44 or ~£24k per year for a full time worker, taking a double income household with two people working full time well above the poverty line and far above the thresholds for tax credits.
    A pedant posts: it's £10.42 per hour atm, £11.44 from April.

    A single parent, two children, social housing rent say £750pm working 40 hours at minimum wage will still get (and require imo) UC - of over £1000pm. The rise in the minimum wage to £11.44 reduces that by about £70pm.
    Working forty hours each and every single month of the whole year?
    Hah nice one. No, my figures are based on 40 hours per week at minimum wage, I should have made that clear.
    So an extra 102p each hour, for 175 hours in the month, only adds/saves £70? Where does the other £110 go?
    I think I've got it

    The worker gets to keep the £110 after the £70 quid reduction in benefits?
    You've obviously got to pay tax and NI on the £180.

    The person is above the PA so 28% (or soon 26%) * 180 = approx 50.

    So earn 180 more, pay 50 more tax, lose 70 benefits, keep 60.

    Effective marginal tax rate = 120/180 = 67%!!!!

    You can't take away more benefits without killing the incentive to work.

    But if you take away less benefits, the taper is so soft that you are paying benefits to people way up the income scale.

    So no easy solution!
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,195
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Colin said:

    REPORT: The New York Times reports that Elon Musk met with Donald Trump in Palm Beach, Florida with wealthy Republican donors on Sunday.

    Epic if true

    According to the source who spoke with the NYT, Trump has been praising Musk to close allies and says he hopes to have a one-on-one meeting with Musk soon.

    It is worth noting that it is unknown if Musk has any plans of contributing to Trump's campaign.

    Here is what Trump previously had to say about Musk during an interview with CNBC.


    https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1765180141259641194?s=20

    Musk was on Trump's committee for promoting American manufacturing last time, and sloped off in a huff.

    But there's an interesting question here: Musk's wealth is tied up in Tesla, and the (would be) Trump administration is not exactly keen on EVs. So... is it really in his interest for Trump to be elected?

    On the other hand, it is absolutely in Musk's interest to get Trump back on Twitter.

    I imagine Mr Musk would be willing to float all kinds of possibilities to get DJT back and posting.
    Musk would also dearly love Trump’s assistance in helping him catch up with Google and Microsoft/OpenAI in AI

    Musk knows this is the biggest game in town, perhaps the only game, See the half redacted correspondence in his OpenAI litigation. It is intensely revealing. If OpenAI get to AGI first and by a distance they could crush everyone else in every field, including Musk

    Only the USG would have the power to alter things, at that point

    Biden is no fan of Musk and vice versa, Musk genuinely detests Democrat Wokeness

    So Musk is left with dwindling options and I can see Musk swallowing his doubts about Trump’s sanity and suitability and helping out the Donald with a couple of billion. It would be more than repaid if it helps Trump win
    The problem with that is that it's quite risky, because if Trump loses, Tesla is fucked. All those Tesla buyers are Woke Dems.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,149
    rcs1000 said:

    Colin said:

    REPORT: The New York Times reports that Elon Musk met with Donald Trump in Palm Beach, Florida with wealthy Republican donors on Sunday.

    Epic if true

    According to the source who spoke with the NYT, Trump has been praising Musk to close allies and says he hopes to have a one-on-one meeting with Musk soon.

    It is worth noting that it is unknown if Musk has any plans of contributing to Trump's campaign.

    Here is what Trump previously had to say about Musk during an interview with CNBC.


    https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1765180141259641194?s=20

    Musk was on Trump's committee for promoting American manufacturing last time, and sloped off in a huff.

    But there's an interesting question here: Musk's wealth is tied up in Tesla, and the (would be) Trump administration is not exactly keen on EVs. So... is it really in his interest for Trump to be elected?

    On the other hand, it is absolutely in Musk's interest to get Trump back on Twitter.

    I imagine Mr Musk would be willing to float all kinds of possibilities to get DJT back and posting.
    Having Trump on twatter might not be a long term benefit given the possibilities that Trump is likely to be in jail, totally demented, a failed has been and/or dead in the not so distant future.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,688
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Colin said:

    REPORT: The New York Times reports that Elon Musk met with Donald Trump in Palm Beach, Florida with wealthy Republican donors on Sunday.

    Epic if true

    According to the source who spoke with the NYT, Trump has been praising Musk to close allies and says he hopes to have a one-on-one meeting with Musk soon.

    It is worth noting that it is unknown if Musk has any plans of contributing to Trump's campaign.

    Here is what Trump previously had to say about Musk during an interview with CNBC.


    https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1765180141259641194?s=20

    Musk was on Trump's committee for promoting American manufacturing last time, and sloped off in a huff.

    But there's an interesting question here: Musk's wealth is tied up in Tesla, and the (would be) Trump administration is not exactly keen on EVs. So... is it really in his interest for Trump to be elected?

    On the other hand, it is absolutely in Musk's interest to get Trump back on Twitter.

    I imagine Mr Musk would be willing to float all kinds of possibilities to get DJT back and posting.
    Musk would also dearly love Trump’s assistance in helping him catch up with Google and Microsoft/OpenAI in AI

    Musk knows this is the biggest game in town, perhaps the only game, See the half redacted correspondence in his OpenAI litigation. It is intensely revealing. If OpenAI get to AGI first and by a distance they could crush everyone else in every field, including Musk

    Only the USG would have the power to alter things, at that point

    Biden is no fan of Musk and vice versa, Musk genuinely detests Democrat Wokeness

    So Musk is left with dwindling options and I can see Musk swallowing his doubts about Trump’s sanity and suitability and helping out the Donald with a couple of billion. It would be more than repaid if it helps Trump win
    The problem with that is that it's quite risky, because if Trump loses, Tesla is fucked. All those Tesla buyers are Woke Dems.
    Yep, big gamble
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,040
    edited March 6

    dixiedean said:

    [pulls knowing smirk, and winks]

    😉

    Podium and Crest watch begins at dawn.

    You are going to steal Labours money raising policies and ask them how they they intend to fix the hole in their plan

    giving them six months to come up with something?

    or

    At the last moment before you call that election?

    Bring it on.
    If that's their cunning plan can we just get on with it?
    You sure? Labour are now down to just one distinctive tax policy, and a gaping hole below the waterline of their manifesto, and maybe less than 11 hours before the election is called.

    If that’s not a rabbit from the hat, what is?

    Never rush to judge a budget.
    But nobody at all has rushed to judge a government.
    We've had all the time needed and more.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,037
    Sir Keir has provoked an online war of words… with Ice-T

    Oh Shit!! We’re FAMOUS! The FLTG struck a nerve! You all gotta read this… F this clown 🤡

    https://x.com/finallevel/status/1765500289145004468?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,032
    edited March 7

    Nigelb said:

    Thank you Speaker Johnson.

    “It was the lack of ammunition,” said Shaman, whose battalion was deployed to Avdiivka in October when the Russians began a new offensive against the city. “No question.”
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1765379008760312226

    208 Dems were happy to bring down McCarthy on behalf of Matt Gaetz.

    Without it seems caring about the consequences or having any sort of plan for what happened afterwards.
    Spare me the bullshit both sides stuff.
    In party votes to aid Ukraine; the other doesn't.

    It's not the job of the minority to vote for a Soeaker.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,149
    edited March 7
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thank you Speaker Johnson.

    “It was the lack of ammunition,” said Shaman, whose battalion was deployed to Avdiivka in October when the Russians began a new offensive against the city. “No question.”
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1765379008760312226

    208 Dems were happy to bring down McCarthy on behalf of Matt Gaetz.

    Without it seems caring about the consequences or having any sort of plan for what happened afterwards.
    Spare me the bullshit both sides stuff.
    In party votes to aid Ukraine; the other doesn't.

    It's not the job of the minority to vote for a Soeaker.
    Actions have consequences.

    And the Dems brought down McCarthy.

    They didn't have to but they chose to do so.

    They chose to be Matt Gaetz's lackeys.

    What did they expect would happen afterwards ?

    It seems they didn't care, all that was important was for them to play their political games.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,072
    Nigelb said:

    Thank you Speaker Johnson.

    “It was the lack of ammunition,” said Shaman, whose battalion was deployed to Avdiivka in October when the Russians began a new offensive against the city. “No question.”
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1765379008760312226

    The ammunition is a factor, no doubt, but they had 6,000 rounds/day for over two months during the counter-offensive and achieved nothing with it so why it would it be different this time?

    The ammunition is just a convenient external factor on which the Ukrainians can hang all their woes. Their bigger problem is people. They have mobilised over 1,000,000 people but only 300,000 ever made it to combat. The new CinC, Sirs'kiy, is demanding an audit to find out what the fuck the other 700,000 are doing. Meanwhile the new mobilisation legislation is stuck in the Rada with over 4,000 amendments.

    This is all in the WaPo but this sort of thing is studiously avoided by the British media to avoid damaging morale or something.

  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,149

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thank you Speaker Johnson.

    “It was the lack of ammunition,” said Shaman, whose battalion was deployed to Avdiivka in October when the Russians began a new offensive against the city. “No question.”
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1765379008760312226

    208 Dems were happy to bring down McCarthy on behalf of Matt Gaetz.

    Without it seems caring about the consequences or having any sort of plan for what happened afterwards.
    Spare me the bullshit both sides stuff.
    In party votes to aid Ukraine; the other doesn't.

    It's not the job of the minority to vote for a Soeaker.
    Actions have consequences.

    And the Dems brought down McCarthy.

    They didn't have to but they chose to do so.

    They chose to be Matt Gaetz's lackeys.

    What did they expect would happen afterwards ?

    It seems they didn't care, all that was important was for them to play their political games.
    And now it seems the Dems have realised they messed up.

    Firstly a few moderate Dems in January:

    A handful of moderate Democrats say they would be willing to save the new Republican House speaker, Mike Johnson, if hard-line conservatives move to oust him from power as they did his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy.

    “Yes, we would back him,” said one senior moderate House Democrat who has been speaking with colleagues in his party.


    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/moderate-democrats-say-help-mike-johnson-keep-job-speaker-rcna133711

    And now the Dem leadership:

    The Democratic leadership in Congress has suggested it would protect the Republican House speaker, Mike Johnson, if he bucks his far-right colleagues and brings a stalled $60bn Ukraine military aid package to a vote, as a new poll shows public support for Ukraine is now fractured down party-political lines.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/29/hakeem-jeffries-mike-johnson-ukraine-bill#:~:text=The Democratic leadership in Congress,fractured down party-political lines.

    If the Dems had thought about things they might have got some bipartisan, moderate GOPer as Speaker instead of an oddball, lightweight Christian fundamentalist.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,131
    edited March 7
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thank you Speaker Johnson.

    “It was the lack of ammunition,” said Shaman, whose battalion was deployed to Avdiivka in October when the Russians began a new offensive against the city. “No question.”
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1765379008760312226

    The ammunition is a factor, no doubt, but they had 6,000 rounds/day for over two months during the counter-offensive and achieved nothing with it so why it would it be different this time?

    The ammunition is just a convenient external factor on which the Ukrainians can hang all their woes. Their bigger problem is people. They have mobilised over 1,000,000 people but only 300,000 ever made it to combat. The new CinC, Sirs'kiy, is demanding an audit to find out what the fuck the other 700,000 are doing. Meanwhile the new mobilisation legislation is stuck in the Rada with over 4,000 amendments.

    This is all in the WaPo but this sort of thing is studiously avoided by the British media to avoid damaging morale or something.

    6,000 rounds a day isn't enough, surely. It's one round about every 14 seconds.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,696

    Nigelb said:

    Thank you Speaker Johnson.

    “It was the lack of ammunition,” said Shaman, whose battalion was deployed to Avdiivka in October when the Russians began a new offensive against the city. “No question.”
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1765379008760312226

    208 Dems were happy to bring down McCarthy on behalf of Matt Gaetz.

    Without it seems caring about the consequences or having any sort of plan for what happened afterwards.
    Total BS.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,418
    ...
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,131
    edited March 7
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Colin said:

    REPORT: The New York Times reports that Elon Musk met with Donald Trump in Palm Beach, Florida with wealthy Republican donors on Sunday.

    Epic if true

    According to the source who spoke with the NYT, Trump has been praising Musk to close allies and says he hopes to have a one-on-one meeting with Musk soon.

    It is worth noting that it is unknown if Musk has any plans of contributing to Trump's campaign.

    Here is what Trump previously had to say about Musk during an interview with CNBC.


    https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1765180141259641194?s=20

    Musk was on Trump's committee for promoting American manufacturing last time, and sloped off in a huff.

    But there's an interesting question here: Musk's wealth is tied up in Tesla, and the (would be) Trump administration is not exactly keen on EVs. So... is it really in his interest for Trump to be elected?

    On the other hand, it is absolutely in Musk's interest to get Trump back on Twitter.

    I imagine Mr Musk would be willing to float all kinds of possibilities to get DJT back and posting.
    Musk would also dearly love Trump’s assistance in helping him catch up with Google and Microsoft/OpenAI in AI

    Musk knows this is the biggest game in town, perhaps the only game, See the half redacted correspondence in his OpenAI litigation. It is intensely revealing. If OpenAI get to AGI first and by a distance they could crush everyone else in every field, including Musk

    Only the USG would have the power to alter things, at that point

    Biden is no fan of Musk and vice versa, Musk genuinely detests Democrat Wokeness

    So Musk is left with dwindling options and I can see Musk swallowing his doubts about Trump’s sanity and suitability and helping out the Donald with a couple of billion. It would be more than repaid if it helps Trump win
    The problem with that is that it's quite risky, because if Trump loses, Tesla is fucked. All those Tesla buyers are Woke Dems.
    Given that my taxi driver this week drove a Tesla, I doubt that Tesla drivers are "Woke Dems". Tesla cars are very popular and presumably cover the political space. As a frequent user of taxis, Tesla back seats are really nice, with an odd but not unpleasant material covering the seats. The flat floor plan is noticeable and the interior is minimalist. Other cars fit around you but Tesla's are more like a box. I like them but the price is in the Jag/Beemer range, not your Ford/Toyota range and definitely not second hand range and way outside my pocket.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,418

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thank you Speaker Johnson.

    “It was the lack of ammunition,” said Shaman, whose battalion was deployed to Avdiivka in October when the Russians began a new offensive against the city. “No question.”
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1765379008760312226

    208 Dems were happy to bring down McCarthy on behalf of Matt Gaetz.

    Without it seems caring about the consequences or having any sort of plan for what happened afterwards.
    Spare me the bullshit both sides stuff.
    In party votes to aid Ukraine; the other doesn't.

    It's not the job of the minority to vote for a Soeaker.
    Actions have consequences.

    And the Dems brought down McCarthy.

    They didn't have to but they chose to do so.

    They chose to be Matt Gaetz's lackeys.

    What did they expect would happen afterwards ?

    It seems they didn't care, all that was important was for them to play their political games.
    This is a bit like victim shaming. The Dems got rid of McCarthy, Gaetz is more radical than McCarthy so it's the Dems fault Gaetz was elected.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,195
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Colin said:

    REPORT: The New York Times reports that Elon Musk met with Donald Trump in Palm Beach, Florida with wealthy Republican donors on Sunday.

    Epic if true

    According to the source who spoke with the NYT, Trump has been praising Musk to close allies and says he hopes to have a one-on-one meeting with Musk soon.

    It is worth noting that it is unknown if Musk has any plans of contributing to Trump's campaign.

    Here is what Trump previously had to say about Musk during an interview with CNBC.


    https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1765180141259641194?s=20

    Musk was on Trump's committee for promoting American manufacturing last time, and sloped off in a huff.

    But there's an interesting question here: Musk's wealth is tied up in Tesla, and the (would be) Trump administration is not exactly keen on EVs. So... is it really in his interest for Trump to be elected?

    On the other hand, it is absolutely in Musk's interest to get Trump back on Twitter.

    I imagine Mr Musk would be willing to float all kinds of possibilities to get DJT back and posting.
    Musk would also dearly love Trump’s assistance in helping him catch up with Google and Microsoft/OpenAI in AI

    Musk knows this is the biggest game in town, perhaps the only game, See the half redacted correspondence in his OpenAI litigation. It is intensely revealing. If OpenAI get to AGI first and by a distance they could crush everyone else in every field, including Musk

    Only the USG would have the power to alter things, at that point

    Biden is no fan of Musk and vice versa, Musk genuinely detests Democrat Wokeness

    So Musk is left with dwindling options and I can see Musk swallowing his doubts about Trump’s sanity and suitability and helping out the Donald with a couple of billion. It would be more than repaid if it helps Trump win
    The problem with that is that it's quite risky, because if Trump loses, Tesla is fucked. All those Tesla buyers are Woke Dems.
    Given that my taxi driver this week drove a Tesla, I doubt that Tesla drivers are "Woke Dems". Tesla cars are very popular and presumably cover the political space. As a frequent user of taxis, Tesla back seats are really nice, with an odd but not unpleasant material covering the seats. The flat floor plan is very noticeable and the interior is very minimalist. Other cars fit around you but
    I like Teslas. I've owned several.

    Today Tesla has amazing brand loyalty. People who purchase Teslas are highly likely to buy another Tesla.

    That has enabled Tesla to sell cars with essentially identical specs at a premium to equivalent VW, Toyota or Ford or whatever cars. And that has meant that Tesla has earned margins well above peers.

    I'm not suggesting that Tesla goes out of business. But if Tesla were to "only" achieve 8% operating margins, and its share of the US electric car market were to drop to 25% (neither of which are outrageous assumptions), then Musk would lose a lot of his wealth. Don't forget Tesla is valued at more than every other auto maker in the world combined.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thank you Speaker Johnson.

    “It was the lack of ammunition,” said Shaman, whose battalion was deployed to Avdiivka in October when the Russians began a new offensive against the city. “No question.”
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1765379008760312226

    The ammunition is a factor, no doubt, but they had 6,000 rounds/day for over two months during the counter-offensive and achieved nothing with it so why it would it be different this time?

    The ammunition is just a convenient external factor on which the Ukrainians can hang all their woes. Their bigger problem is people. They have mobilised over 1,000,000 people but only 300,000 ever made it to combat. The new CinC, Sirs'kiy, is demanding an audit to find out what the fuck the other 700,000 are doing. Meanwhile the new mobilisation legislation is stuck in the Rada with over 4,000 amendments.

    This is all in the WaPo but this sort of thing is studiously avoided by the British media to avoid damaging morale or something.

    Except the norm in most wars is that less than 50% of the troops will actually get into combat or even get near the front line. That has been the same throughout almost every major conflict of the 20th century.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,131

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thank you Speaker Johnson.

    “It was the lack of ammunition,” said Shaman, whose battalion was deployed to Avdiivka in October when the Russians began a new offensive against the city. “No question.”
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1765379008760312226

    The ammunition is a factor, no doubt, but they had 6,000 rounds/day for over two months during the counter-offensive and achieved nothing with it so why it would it be different this time?

    The ammunition is just a convenient external factor on which the Ukrainians can hang all their woes. Their bigger problem is people. They have mobilised over 1,000,000 people but only 300,000 ever made it to combat. The new CinC, Sirs'kiy, is demanding an audit to find out what the fuck the other 700,000 are doing. Meanwhile the new mobilisation legislation is stuck in the Rada with over 4,000 amendments.

    This is all in the WaPo but this sort of thing is studiously avoided by the British media to avoid damaging morale or something.

    Except the norm in most wars is that less than 50% of the troops will actually get into combat or even get near the front line. That has been the same throughout almost every major conflict of the 20th century.
    Churchill famously complained about British ratios, which from memory were a lot worse than 3:7. I think they were something like 1:4 or 1:5 (apologies if wrong as my memory is shot). The modern slang is "tooth to tail ratio", with the teeth being the fighters on the front line and the tail being the logistics support.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048
    viewcode said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thank you Speaker Johnson.

    “It was the lack of ammunition,” said Shaman, whose battalion was deployed to Avdiivka in October when the Russians began a new offensive against the city. “No question.”
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1765379008760312226

    The ammunition is a factor, no doubt, but they had 6,000 rounds/day for over two months during the counter-offensive and achieved nothing with it so why it would it be different this time?

    The ammunition is just a convenient external factor on which the Ukrainians can hang all their woes. Their bigger problem is people. They have mobilised over 1,000,000 people but only 300,000 ever made it to combat. The new CinC, Sirs'kiy, is demanding an audit to find out what the fuck the other 700,000 are doing. Meanwhile the new mobilisation legislation is stuck in the Rada with over 4,000 amendments.

    This is all in the WaPo but this sort of thing is studiously avoided by the British media to avoid damaging morale or something.

    Except the norm in most wars is that less than 50% of the troops will actually get into combat or even get near the front line. That has been the same throughout almost every major conflict of the 20th century.
    Churchill famously complained about British ratios, which from memory were a lot worse than 3:7. I think they were something like 1:4 or 1:5 (apologies if wrong as my memory is shot). The modern slang is "tooth to tail ratio", with the teeth being the fighters on the front line and the tail being the logistics support.
    Yep I was just looking at T3R ratios after my posting.

    There is a good paper on this published by the Combat Studies Institute at Fort Leavenworth

    % of Combat troops by conflict theatre

    WW2 European Theatre 39%
    Korean War 33%
    Vietnam 35%
    Gulf War 1 30%
    Gulf War II 40%

    On those comparisons the Ukraine numbers do not look out of the ordinary
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,131
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Colin said:

    REPORT: The New York Times reports that Elon Musk met with Donald Trump in Palm Beach, Florida with wealthy Republican donors on Sunday.

    Epic if true

    According to the source who spoke with the NYT, Trump has been praising Musk to close allies and says he hopes to have a one-on-one meeting with Musk soon.

    It is worth noting that it is unknown if Musk has any plans of contributing to Trump's campaign.

    Here is what Trump previously had to say about Musk during an interview with CNBC.


    https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1765180141259641194?s=20

    Musk was on Trump's committee for promoting American manufacturing last time, and sloped off in a huff.

    But there's an interesting question here: Musk's wealth is tied up in Tesla, and the (would be) Trump administration is not exactly keen on EVs. So... is it really in his interest for Trump to be elected?

    On the other hand, it is absolutely in Musk's interest to get Trump back on Twitter.

    I imagine Mr Musk would be willing to float all kinds of possibilities to get DJT back and posting.
    Musk would also dearly love Trump’s assistance in helping him catch up with Google and Microsoft/OpenAI in AI

    Musk knows this is the biggest game in town, perhaps the only game, See the half redacted correspondence in his OpenAI litigation. It is intensely revealing. If OpenAI get to AGI first and by a distance they could crush everyone else in every field, including Musk

    Only the USG would have the power to alter things, at that point

    Biden is no fan of Musk and vice versa, Musk genuinely detests Democrat Wokeness

    So Musk is left with dwindling options and I can see Musk swallowing his doubts about Trump’s sanity and suitability and helping out the Donald with a couple of billion. It would be more than repaid if it helps Trump win
    The problem with that is that it's quite risky, because if Trump loses, Tesla is fucked. All those Tesla buyers are Woke Dems.
    Given that my taxi driver this week drove a Tesla, I doubt that Tesla drivers are "Woke Dems". Tesla cars are very popular and presumably cover the political space. As a frequent user of taxis, Tesla back seats are really nice, with an odd but not unpleasant material covering the seats. The flat floor plan is very noticeable and the interior is very minimalist. Other cars fit around you but
    I like Teslas. I've owned several.

    Today Tesla has amazing brand loyalty. People who purchase Teslas are highly likely to buy another Tesla.

    That has enabled Tesla to sell cars with essentially identical specs at a premium to equivalent VW, Toyota or Ford or whatever cars. And that has meant that Tesla has earned margins well above peers.

    I'm not suggesting that Tesla goes out of business. But if Tesla were to "only" achieve 8% operating margins, and its share of the US electric car market were to drop to 25% (neither of which are outrageous assumptions), then Musk would lose a lot of his wealth. Don't forget Tesla is valued at more than every other auto maker in the world combined.
    We forget how rich Musk is, and also the extent of his wealth. He owns the biggest car manufacturer in the world, has his own rocket fleet and satellite fleet, influences wars and bought twitter on a whim. I wouldn't be surprised if the rumours about him buying Disney just to make it anti-woke were true.

    But, as you say, the insanely wealthy are not rich forever: every king has his reign, and then he dies. And first -adopter advantage only lasts until others learn to do it, which doesn't take long. So one day Tesla will fall. But I'm not betting on it being soon

    @RochdalePioneers, opinion?
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,696
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Colin said:

    REPORT: The New York Times reports that Elon Musk met with Donald Trump in Palm Beach, Florida with wealthy Republican donors on Sunday.

    Epic if true

    According to the source who spoke with the NYT, Trump has been praising Musk to close allies and says he hopes to have a one-on-one meeting with Musk soon.

    It is worth noting that it is unknown if Musk has any plans of contributing to Trump's campaign.

    Here is what Trump previously had to say about Musk during an interview with CNBC.


    https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1765180141259641194?s=20

    Musk was on Trump's committee for promoting American manufacturing last time, and sloped off in a huff.

    But there's an interesting question here: Musk's wealth is tied up in Tesla, and the (would be) Trump administration is not exactly keen on EVs. So... is it really in his interest for Trump to be elected?

    On the other hand, it is absolutely in Musk's interest to get Trump back on Twitter.

    I imagine Mr Musk would be willing to float all kinds of possibilities to get DJT back and posting.
    Musk would also dearly love Trump’s assistance in helping him catch up with Google and Microsoft/OpenAI in AI

    Musk knows this is the biggest game in town, perhaps the only game, See the half redacted correspondence in his OpenAI litigation. It is intensely revealing. If OpenAI get to AGI first and by a distance they could crush everyone else in every field, including Musk

    Only the USG would have the power to alter things, at that point

    Biden is no fan of Musk and vice versa, Musk genuinely detests Democrat Wokeness

    So Musk is left with dwindling options and I can see Musk swallowing his doubts about Trump’s sanity and suitability and helping out the Donald with a couple of billion. It would be more than repaid if it helps Trump win
    The problem with that is that it's quite risky, because if Trump loses, Tesla is fucked. All those Tesla buyers are Woke Dems.
    Given that my taxi driver this week drove a Tesla, I doubt that Tesla drivers are "Woke Dems". Tesla cars are very popular and presumably cover the political space. As a frequent user of taxis, Tesla back seats are really nice, with an odd but not unpleasant material covering the seats. The flat floor plan is very noticeable and the interior is very minimalist. Other cars fit around you but
    I like Teslas. I've owned several.

    Today Tesla has amazing brand loyalty. People who purchase Teslas are highly likely to buy another Tesla.

    That has enabled Tesla to sell cars with essentially identical specs at a premium to equivalent VW, Toyota or Ford or whatever cars. And that has meant that Tesla has earned margins well above peers.

    I'm not suggesting that Tesla goes out of business. But if Tesla were to "only" achieve 8% operating margins, and its share of the US electric car market were to drop to 25% (neither of which are outrageous assumptions), then Musk would lose a lot of his wealth. Don't forget Tesla is valued at more than every other auto maker in the world combined.
    We forget how rich Musk is, and also the extent of his wealth. He owns the biggest car manufacturer in the world, has his own rocket fleet and satellite fleet, influences wars and bought twitter on a whim. I wouldn't be surprised if the rumours about him buying Disney just to make it anti-woke were true.

    But, as you say, the insanely wealthy are not rich forever: every king has his reign, and then he dies. And first -adopter advantage only lasts until others learn to do it, which doesn't take long. So one day Tesla will fall. But I'm not betting on it being soon

    @RochdalePioneers, opinion?
    Krueger the Match King says "Hallå!"
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,131

    viewcode said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thank you Speaker Johnson.

    “It was the lack of ammunition,” said Shaman, whose battalion was deployed to Avdiivka in October when the Russians began a new offensive against the city. “No question.”
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1765379008760312226

    The ammunition is a factor, no doubt, but they had 6,000 rounds/day for over two months during the counter-offensive and achieved nothing with it so why it would it be different this time?

    The ammunition is just a convenient external factor on which the Ukrainians can hang all their woes. Their bigger problem is people. They have mobilised over 1,000,000 people but only 300,000 ever made it to combat. The new CinC, Sirs'kiy, is demanding an audit to find out what the fuck the other 700,000 are doing. Meanwhile the new mobilisation legislation is stuck in the Rada with over 4,000 amendments.

    This is all in the WaPo but this sort of thing is studiously avoided by the British media to avoid damaging morale or something.

    Except the norm in most wars is that less than 50% of the troops will actually get into combat or even get near the front line. That has been the same throughout almost every major conflict of the 20th century.
    Churchill famously complained about British ratios, which from memory were a lot worse than 3:7. I think they were something like 1:4 or 1:5 (apologies if wrong as my memory is shot). The modern slang is "tooth to tail ratio", with the teeth being the fighters on the front line and the tail being the logistics support.
    Yep I was just looking at T3R ratios after my posting.

    There is a good paper on this published by the Combat Studies Institute at Fort Leavenworth

    % of Combat troops by conflict theatre

    WW2 European Theatre 39%
    Korean War 33%
    Vietnam 35%
    Gulf War 1 30%
    Gulf War II 40%

    On those comparisons the Ukraine numbers do not look out of the ordinary
    That's interesting, thank you. I'm in digs and on the tablet so I'll dig out the paper tomorrow: thanks for the heads-up.
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,725

    I understand that a much missed user and friend will shortly be joining the site again.

    Neigh, they said in delight

    Will you and he get into deep conversations with each other, like Colin and Leon are doing tonight?
    I will have to leave if they come back as personally I cannot stand them
    I never quite understand this, and why the site loves to dance around this issue.

    A user joins, CorrectHorseBattery or SeanT.
    Something happens, they say something silly. They get banned.

    A week later, a new poster joins, displaying the same characteristics as the now banned user. Called AverageNinja, or Leon (or one of the many guises they took before becoming Leon).

    Everyone pretends they aren't the same poster, but make daily comments about how they never see SeanT or Leon in the same room together like Clark Kent and Superman.....

    Why? Why do we do this? Why can't the user just serve his ban out (lurking if necessary) and then come back as CHB?

    Will I get banned for pointing out this daftness?
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,696

    I understand that a much missed user and friend will shortly be joining the site again.

    Neigh, they said in delight

    Will you and he get into deep conversations with each other, like Colin and Leon are doing tonight?
    I will have to leave if they come back as personally I cannot stand them
    I never quite understand this, and why the site loves to dance around this issue.

    A user joins, CorrectHorseBattery or SeanT.
    Something happens, they say something silly. They get banned.

    A week later, a new poster joins, displaying the same characteristics as the now banned user. Called AverageNinja, or Leon (or one of the many guises they took before becoming Leon).

    Everyone pretends they aren't the same poster, but make daily comments about how they never see SeanT or Leon in the same room together like Clark Kent and Superman.....

    Why? Why do we do this? Why can't the user just serve his ban out (lurking if necessary) and then come back as CHB?

    Will I get banned for pointing out this daftness?
    Totally up to the Proprietor OGH and his savage Monitor Hench-People.

    Who can ban you, or me, or whom(m)ever for bad breath IF they take the notion.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,019
    edited March 7

    viewcode said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thank you Speaker Johnson.

    “It was the lack of ammunition,” said Shaman, whose battalion was deployed to Avdiivka in October when the Russians began a new offensive against the city. “No question.”
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1765379008760312226

    The ammunition is a factor, no doubt, but they had 6,000 rounds/day for over two months during the counter-offensive and achieved nothing with it so why it would it be different this time?

    The ammunition is just a convenient external factor on which the Ukrainians can hang all their woes. Their bigger problem is people. They have mobilised over 1,000,000 people but only 300,000 ever made it to combat. The new CinC, Sirs'kiy, is demanding an audit to find out what the fuck the other 700,000 are doing. Meanwhile the new mobilisation legislation is stuck in the Rada with over 4,000 amendments.

    This is all in the WaPo but this sort of thing is studiously avoided by the British media to avoid damaging morale or something.

    Except the norm in most wars is that less than 50% of the troops will actually get into combat or even get near the front line. That has been the same throughout almost every major conflict of the 20th century.
    Churchill famously complained about British ratios, which from memory were a lot worse than 3:7. I think they were something like 1:4 or 1:5 (apologies if wrong as my memory is shot). The modern slang is "tooth to tail ratio", with the teeth being the fighters on the front line and the tail being the logistics support.
    Yep I was just looking at T3R ratios after my posting.

    There is a good paper on this published by the Combat Studies Institute at Fort Leavenworth

    % of Combat troops by conflict theatre

    WW2 European Theatre 39%
    Korean War 33%
    Vietnam 35%
    Gulf War 1 30%
    Gulf War II 40%

    On those comparisons the Ukraine numbers do not look out of the ordinary
    This fighting age male is going to read some articles on logistics 👀
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,195
    New thread

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    TazTaz Posts: 11,381
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thank you Speaker Johnson.

    “It was the lack of ammunition,” said Shaman, whose battalion was deployed to Avdiivka in October when the Russians began a new offensive against the city. “No question.”
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1765379008760312226

    The ammunition is a factor, no doubt, but they had 6,000 rounds/day for over two months during the counter-offensive and achieved nothing with it so why it would it be different this time?

    The ammunition is just a convenient external factor on which the Ukrainians can hang all their woes. Their bigger problem is people. They have mobilised over 1,000,000 people but only 300,000 ever made it to combat. The new CinC, Sirs'kiy, is demanding an audit to find out what the fuck the other 700,000 are doing. Meanwhile the new mobilisation legislation is stuck in the Rada with over 4,000 amendments.

    This is all in the WaPo but this sort of thing is studiously avoided by the British media to avoid damaging morale or something.

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thank you Speaker Johnson.

    “It was the lack of ammunition,” said Shaman, whose battalion was deployed to Avdiivka in October when the Russians began a new offensive against the city. “No question.”
    https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1765379008760312226

    The ammunition is a factor, no doubt, but they had 6,000 rounds/day for over two months during the counter-offensive and achieved nothing with it so why it would it be different this time?

    The ammunition is just a convenient external factor on which the Ukrainians can hang all their woes. Their bigger problem is people. They have mobilised over 1,000,000 people but only 300,000 ever made it to combat. The new CinC, Sirs'kiy, is demanding an audit to find out what the fuck the other 700,000 are doing. Meanwhile the new mobilisation legislation is stuck in the Rada with over 4,000 amendments.

    This is all in the WaPo but this sort of thing is studiously avoided by the British media to avoid damaging morale or something.

    The BBC sounding an unusually pessimistic note on East Ukraine. Makes a change from its blue and yellow flag waving boosterism.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68493215
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,176
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Colin said:

    REPORT: The New York Times reports that Elon Musk met with Donald Trump in Palm Beach, Florida with wealthy Republican donors on Sunday.

    Epic if true

    According to the source who spoke with the NYT, Trump has been praising Musk to close allies and says he hopes to have a one-on-one meeting with Musk soon.

    It is worth noting that it is unknown if Musk has any plans of contributing to Trump's campaign.

    Here is what Trump previously had to say about Musk during an interview with CNBC.


    https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1765180141259641194?s=20

    Musk was on Trump's committee for promoting American manufacturing last time, and sloped off in a huff.

    But there's an interesting question here: Musk's wealth is tied up in Tesla, and the (would be) Trump administration is not exactly keen on EVs. So... is it really in his interest for Trump to be elected?

    On the other hand, it is absolutely in Musk's interest to get Trump back on Twitter.

    I imagine Mr Musk would be willing to float all kinds of possibilities to get DJT back and posting.
    Musk would also dearly love Trump’s assistance in helping him catch up with Google and Microsoft/OpenAI in AI

    Musk knows this is the biggest game in town, perhaps the only game, See the half redacted correspondence in his OpenAI litigation. It is intensely revealing. If OpenAI get to AGI first and by a distance they could crush everyone else in every field, including Musk

    Only the USG would have the power to alter things, at that point

    Biden is no fan of Musk and vice versa, Musk genuinely detests Democrat Wokeness

    So Musk is left with dwindling options and I can see Musk swallowing his doubts about Trump’s sanity and suitability and helping out the Donald with a couple of billion. It would be more than repaid if it helps Trump win
    The problem with that is that it's quite risky, because if Trump loses, Tesla is fucked. All those Tesla buyers are Woke Dems.
    Given that my taxi driver this week drove a Tesla, I doubt that Tesla drivers are "Woke Dems". Tesla cars are very popular and presumably cover the political space. As a frequent user of taxis, Tesla back seats are really nice, with an odd but not unpleasant material covering the seats. The flat floor plan is very noticeable and the interior is very minimalist. Other cars fit around you but
    I like Teslas. I've owned several.

    Today Tesla has amazing brand loyalty. People who purchase Teslas are highly likely to buy another Tesla.

    That has enabled Tesla to sell cars with essentially identical specs at a premium to equivalent VW, Toyota or Ford or whatever cars. And that has meant that Tesla has earned margins well above peers.

    I'm not suggesting that Tesla goes out of business. But if Tesla were to "only" achieve 8% operating margins, and its share of the US electric car market were to drop to 25% (neither of which are outrageous assumptions), then Musk would lose a lot of his wealth. Don't forget Tesla is valued at more than every other auto maker in the world combined.
    We forget how rich Musk is, and also the extent of his wealth. He owns the biggest car manufacturer in the world, has his own rocket fleet and satellite fleet, influences wars and bought twitter on a whim. I wouldn't be surprised if the rumours about him buying Disney just to make it anti-woke were true.

    But, as you say, the insanely wealthy are not rich forever: every king has his reign, and then he dies. And first -adopter advantage only lasts until others learn to do it, which doesn't take long. So one day Tesla will fall. But I'm not betting on it being soon

    @RochdalePioneers, opinion?
    "He owns the biggest car manufacturer in the world, "

    Tesla is *not* the biggest car manufacturer in the world. Far from. By cars sold, or by revenue. It has the most valuable *brand*, and the share price is high; but they're different things from 'biggest'.

    This is the sort of rubbish that gets repeated by Musk that just increases his power. It isn't true.
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    theakestheakes Posts: 845
    what is going to happen at the local elections in May, Cons lose 1000 seats?
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