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George Osborne is right – politicalbetting.com
George Osborne is right – politicalbetting.com
George Osborne on the Budget: “It is not the silver bullet that’s going to rescue the Tory Party’s fortunes."[He does than add: "But it is a strong salvo that opens the long campaign to the next general election.”]
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But NI requires a separate act which is what Parliament will be voting on next Wednesday
Most people think prices have gone up, even though inflation is down. That’s what’s going to lead to a change of government at the election.
See Arthur Laffer and Nigel Lawson for more details.
It is time to go to the country.
It is time for a General Election like no other.
With Jeremy "The Huntsman" Hunt and Liz "The" Truss at his side, he should board the lectern and ask the nation: "Who governs?"
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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/25/david-cameron-rules-out-vat-rise-in-next-parliament
The most obvious is that the projection assumes that fuel duty will increase by inflation in future years, but fuel duty hasn't increased by inflation for more than a decade. We go through this charade, every budget, of the chancellor cancelling the planned increase in fuel duty, but keeping future planned increases so that the fiscal rule can be met in the future (but it doesn't need to be met in the present). There are similar promises of jam today and rectitude tomorrow in terms of public spending.
The current fiscal framework is therefore a complete work of fiction. There is no meaningful intent to control debt levels.
Britain risks sleep-walking into a repeat of the Truss Disaster if market patience with this approach to public borrowing runs out.
Moving it from £50–60k, to £60-80k is a huge difference.
Though in truth I am trying to work out if this is a satirical post or not. Apologies for being slow and thick!
Regular Top-Two Primary for Full US Senate term (2025-2031)
Adam Schiff
Democrat 1,247,723 33.17%
Steve Garvey
Republican 1,220,683 32.45%
Katie Porter
Democrat 519,631 13.81%
Barbara Lee
Democrat 276,854 7.36%
Total reported
3,762,138
Special Open Primary for Remainder of late Sen. Feinstein's remaining term (through Jan 2025)
Steve Garvey
Republican 1,317,911 34.6%
Adam Schiff
Democrat 1,173,917 30.8%
Katie Porter
Democrat 610,834 16.0%
Barbara Lee
Democrat 356,510 9.4%
Eric Early
Republican 258,742 6.8%
Christina Pascucci
Democrat 58,335 1.5%
Sepi Gilani
Democrat 36,092 0.9%
Total reported
3,812,341
SSI - Note the differences above, esp. that Steve Garvey is currently slightly behind Adam Schiff for the full term, but is running ahead for the remainder of Feinstein's term.
Note there are 5 counties - Lake, Mono, Placer, San Luis Obispo & Ventura - where Schiff is leading for full term but Garvey is leading for partial.
Liz Truss has none of these qualities, her career shows no evidence of coherent thinking, it is notable for its inconsistency and opportunism, her communication skills are non-existent and her intelligence, or lack of it, proved less enduring than the proverbial lettuce.
When will politicians think about people like me?
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1765160603855819118?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Just look at that Ipsos polling, the Tories need time to turn that around or at least make it less bad, an election in May doesn’t give them that time,”
To be very fair to you, it didn’t feel like a pre election budget to anybody. Beth & Soph like, how can you have any budget let alone pre election launching budget without a rabbit from the hat?
Has it occurred to anyone, maybe there’s no rabbits left for this year, this parliament? Rabbit just can’t be done any better than a solid, well thought of budget like this one, when there’s been no growth and no fiscal headroom, now or in the Autumn?
And maybe too much political commentary is based on history, not on changed or unique situations not there in history, that commentators paid a lot of money to spot for us, and show they really are overpaid for not spotting it.
Let me keep this simple. You can know right now if the General Election definitely is or definitely isn’t May 2nd by answering 1 question relating to how to get swingback.
Is the swingback required to make it “less bad” as you put it, just the same as now, easier or very much harder, after the Great Boat surge from July?
If you are minded to ignore any impact of policy failure on boats, just looking at things fiscally, with voters feeling better off and thinking the country has turned corner later in the year, the election is definitely October or later.
If you are minded the sub 29% position of Tories in polls is false, and given fair wind can get swingback from what is soft out there on other parties, particularly Reform, but after the Boats Surge in Summer and Autumn, that softness forms up harder to get back, leaving Tories with odd result from just 26%, then your mind says May 2nd.
Won't be possible next year, with RR doing the honours.
with over 95% reporting (source NYT)
Democratic Primary
Shomari Figures
24,825 43.5%
Anthony Daniels
12,774 22.4%
Napoleon Bracy
8,954 15.7%
8 others
10,576 18.5%
Total reported
57,129
Republican Primary
Dick Brewbaker
22,558 39.6%
Caroleene Dobson
15,075 26.5%
Greg Albritton
14,434 25.3%
5 others
4,903 8.6%
Total reported
56,970
SSI - since no candidate achieved 50%+ there will be runoff primaries on April 16 between the Top Two finishers for both parties.
Note that the new 2nd CD extends across southern Alabama from Georgia to Mississippi, and is rooted in the classic "Black Belt" so-called due to the hue of the rich soil AND of the African American slaves who worked on this region's plantations before AND after the Civil War.
Further note that Montgomery Co (county seat city of same name) accounts for 40% of the Dem vote, while Mobile County (ditto) accounts for 30%, with remaining 30% split between 11 smaller rural counties (including George Wallace's home county, Barbour).
An what about Leon's views on AI and how it might be able to generate all kinds of content and activity that for all the world might seem like an actual human. What about that, eh?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/revealed-conspiracy-of-silence-on-uk-sex-gangs-gpg5vqsqz9h#:~:text=A culture of silence that,exposed by The Times today.
2014: Bombshell Jay report estimates full scale of child grooming gangs, predominantly of Muslim origin groomers doing unspeakable things to young white girls. 1400 estimated child victims.
https://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/download/31/independent-inquiry-into-child-sexual-exploitation-in-rotherham-1997---2013
2014 onwards: various street grooming gangs come to light in Ipswich, Telford, Rochdale, Huddersfield, London, Luton, Manchester, Birmingham and many others. A common feature is the demographics of the perpetrators and victims.
2014-2019: Nationwide inquiry into child street grooming delayed multiple timess, despite a number of government petitions reaching the required 100,000 threshold. Eventually, the terms of the inquiry are changed so it isn't focused on street grooming but grooming more broadly.
2016: BBC releases a documentary on Syrian refugees and the prejudice against them in the UK. A particular focus was unfair accusations of abuse from white girls on Muslim men. One example was Omar Badreddin, who was accused of rape despite being a vulnerable virgin. He is reported as being unable to defend himself as his modest Muslim background meant he did not understand sex. The BBC describes the accuser as fabricating claims of abuse.
https://twitter.com/UnityNewsNet/status/1764769247316603170?t=2IDSDPovk_BVt-LFB4-svQ&s=19
2017: Victims of street grooming report, despite the public controversy, their attackers remain at large. "Nothing has changed."
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/may/16/offenders-in-rochdale-child-sexual-abuse-scandal-remain-at-large
2020: After an FOI request, UK government refuses to release full research into demographics of street grooming gangs, claiming it is "not in the public interest".
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/grooming-gang-rotherham-review-home-office-findings-a9344896.html
2020: UK government finally releases its report into "group based child exploitation". The term "Muslim" is not used in the report, and it argues that offenders are "most commonly white", dismissing claims of studies that find "black and Asian" offenders are over represented.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5fd87e348fa8f54d5733f532/Group-based_CSE_Paper.pdf
2024: A grooming gang in Newcastle convicted of the horrific torture and abuse of a 13 year old girl. The gang included the BBC's "vulnerable" Omar Badreddin and his brother, Mohammed.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-68446855.amp
So the strain of war is leading them to draw on past inspiration.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4yQoawY6ws
There are moments when it looked decidedly odd, but others when it looks very real. Gun to head I’d say “real”, but I would not bet on it
But yes I'm far more genuinely middle than most here I suspect.
Shop at Aldi, Asda and B&M too. As much as that makes @TheScreamingEagles reach for his banhammer as much as insulting Radiohead does for someone else.
Didn't you get the memo?
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-cambodia-is-the-best-country-in-the-world
Perhaps relatedly, it is one of the fastest growing countries on earth. And you can FEEL it it when you are there
https://x.com/x_msfirm/status/1761247079761056214?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
Two men have been acquitted of paying bribes totalling millions of pounds to high-ranking Saudis after they argued that they had been unfairly prosecuted.
Jeffrey Cook and John Mason had been accused of bribing a Saudi prince and his associates to secure and maintain a huge defence deal for a British company. But on Wednesday, a jury acquitted them after lawyers argued the payments had been authorised by the British and Saudi governments.
Tom Allen, the KC representing Cook, had told jurors that a wide array of British politicians, officials and military figures had long known about, and approved, the payments to the Saudis.
His client, he said, had been “hung out to dry”, as the UK Ministry of Defence had in effect authorised the exact type of payments that the two men were being prosecuted for.
The acquittal is a defeat for the Serious Fraud Office, which brought a prosecution against the two men, after an investigation that lasted nearly a decade.
In court, the SFO had alleged Cook and Mason had been at “the very heart of the operation” to pay £9.7m to a group of leading Saudis between 2007 and 2010. It said the payments had been made to Prince Miteb bin Abdullah, a son of the late King Abdullah, and his associates to ensure that a British firm, GPT Special Project Management, continued to receive lucrative contracts from a Saudi military unit
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/06/two-men-acquitted-of-bribing-saudis-in-huge-british-defence-deal
He's a multiple millionaire who never needs to work again. Who can casually pickup more money, whenever he feels like giving a speech.
Remember some people can top up their NI contributions and there's a 100 other issues.
In short this is the sort of policy that keeps a party out of office for a generation if it goes wrong.
There's a whole bunch of legislation that will need fixing to kill NI. Quite a lot can actually be scrapped, IIRC.
The one that is most interesting is shifting to everyone gets the same state pension.
Then there's the P11D part as well.
You will need to align the the upper and lower limits for earnings on NI to match income tax which won't be easy.
Hope Starmer matches that pledge so it might actually happen.
Or better yet abolish upper and lower limits altogether, abolish thresholds, and have a consistent, single, unitary rate of tax that applies consistently to all so that no cliff edges exist anymore.
And include UC taper in that too by merging that with ICT too.
Where her voters go now likely decides the general election and Biden has just gone one up in getting them in his camp
JUST IN - 14-year-old girl found dead in the apartment of an Afghan in Vienna, Austria. The girl was drugged and abused — Kronen
1:47 PM · Mar 6, 2024
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431.4K
Views
https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1765373687752966291?s=20
Where do you recover the lost income of employer NI, corporation tax? VAT? and at what level.
If there was a Waitrose within 20 miles, I would go there too, but there isn't.
I'm sure if I had time to fire up a GIS and plot supermarket locations it could tell you quite a lot about voting patterns.
In American Samoa, 91 people voted in a procedural vote which has no bearing on the actual election and a random guy won it.
Here is how one of the largest newspapers in the country reported it:
https://twitter.com/Mikel_Jollett/status/1765411507205235176
Justin Webb did the same this morning. The plonker.