Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

George Osborne is right – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,736
edited March 12 in General
George Osborne is right – politicalbetting.com

George Osborne on the Budget: “It is not the silver bullet that’s going to rescue the Tory Party’s fortunes."[He does than add: "But it is a strong salvo that opens the long campaign to the next general election.”]

Read the full story here

«1345

Comments

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789
    Do like the plans to abolish national insurance though I expect it will require a royal commission.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,356

    Do like the plans to abolish national insurance though I expect it will require a royal commission.

    In the fullness of time, Liz Truss will be seen as ushering in an era of intellectual renewal and new thinking in the Conservative party.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,147
    If half of it remains (Employer NI) it’s not abolished, that may be a technicality around bigger issues.

    But NI requires a separate act which is what Parliament will be voting on next Wednesday
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,816
    As a former near-perfect chancellor, Osborne should be listened to on all things budget related.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,539
    Needlessly provocative title for a new thread.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,175
    edited March 6
    Maybe Osborne should have actually cut spending, instead of trying to sell a reduction in the increase as somehow being ‘austerity’?

    Most people think prices have gone up, even though inflation is down. That’s what’s going to lead to a change of government at the election.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,816
    Sandpit said:

    Maybe Osborne should have actually cut spending, instead of trying to sell a reduction in the increase as somehow being ‘austerity’?

    Most people think prices have gone up, even though inflation is down. That’s what’s going to lead to a change of government at the election.

    As long as there is inflation, prices are going up. Increases on top of increases.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789

    Do like the plans to abolish national insurance though I expect it will require a royal commission.

    In the fullness of time, Liz Truss will be seen as ushering in an era of intellectual renewal and new thinking in the Conservative party.
    Nope, cutting taxes and increasing spending massively is so unThatcherite and unConservative that your assertion is laughable.
  • Options
    ColinColin Posts: 70

    As a former near-perfect chancellor, Osborne should be listened to on all things budget related.

    The only place Osborne is highly regarded on is here.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,175

    Do like the plans to abolish national insurance though I expect it will require a royal commission.

    In the fullness of time, Liz Truss will be seen as ushering in an era of intellectual renewal and new thinking in the Conservative party.
    Nope, cutting taxes and increasing spending massively is so unThatcherite and unConservative that your assertion is laughable.
    She was increasing tax receipts, while reducing tax rates.

    See Arthur Laffer and Nigel Lawson for more details.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,816

    Do like the plans to abolish national insurance though I expect it will require a royal commission.

    In the fullness of time, Liz Truss will be seen as ushering in an era of intellectual renewal and new thinking in the Conservative party.
    Nope, cutting taxes and increasing spending massively is so unThatcherite and unConservative that your assertion is laughable.
    Indeed. Selling off public assets on the cheap to your mates to fund the tax cuts is the Conservative/Thatcherite way.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,286
    It is time for Sunny to stop the rot.

    It is time to go to the country.

    It is time for a General Election like no other.

    With Jeremy "The Huntsman" Hunt and Liz "The" Truss at his side, he should board the lectern and ask the nation: "Who governs?"
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,175
    Betting post: have the odds on a May election shortened in the last three hours?
  • Options
    ColinColin Posts: 70
    kinabalu said:

    Needlessly provocative title for a new thread.

    Yes. I dont think Osbornes ever been right about anything except ways to increase his bank balance.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,653

    It is time for Sunny to stop the rot.

    It is time to go to the country.

    It is time for a General Election like no other.

    With Jeremy "The Huntsman" Hunt and Liz "The" Truss at his side, he should board the lectern and ask the nation: "Who governs?"

    H

    U

    N

    T

    :lol:
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,263

    It is time for Sunny to stop the rot.

    It is time to go to the country.

    It is time for a General Election like no other.

    With Jeremy "The Huntsman" Hunt and Liz "The" Truss at his side, he should board the lectern and ask the nation: "Who governs?"

    Agreed. Time to bring this to a close. However I'm a bit less convinced about 2 May now! 👿
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,175

    It is time for Sunny to stop the rot.

    It is time to go to the country.

    It is time for a General Election like no other.

    With Jeremy "The Huntsman" Hunt and Liz "The" Truss at his side, he should board the lectern and ask the nation: "Who governs?"

    H

    U

    N

    T

    :lol:
    “Did you type an “H” there, when you meant to type a “C”?” - BBC news.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    What was so good about the 2015 budget. I note it raised the PA by £600. Which (Well for my household anyway) was less benefit than today's NI cut.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789
    Pulpstar said:

    What was so good about the 2015 budget. I note it raised the PA by £600. Which (Well for my household anyway) was less benefit than today's NI cut.

    Ed Miliband walked into an elephant sized trap.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/25/david-cameron-rules-out-vat-rise-in-next-parliament
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223
    Pulpstar said:

    What was so good about the 2015 budget. I note it raised the PA by £600. Which (Well for my household anyway) was less benefit than today's NI cut.

    The jokes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCz0osjAZSI
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,701
    To return to a point I made earlier about the weakness of the fiscal rule (to have debt falling as a share of GDP in five years time), it is worth pointing out that meeting this rule is based on pretend policies that will never happen.

    The most obvious is that the projection assumes that fuel duty will increase by inflation in future years, but fuel duty hasn't increased by inflation for more than a decade. We go through this charade, every budget, of the chancellor cancelling the planned increase in fuel duty, but keeping future planned increases so that the fiscal rule can be met in the future (but it doesn't need to be met in the present). There are similar promises of jam today and rectitude tomorrow in terms of public spending.

    The current fiscal framework is therefore a complete work of fiction. There is no meaningful intent to control debt levels.

    Britain risks sleep-walking into a repeat of the Truss Disaster if market patience with this approach to public borrowing runs out.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,175
    The Child Benefit withdrawal changes look like the biggest middle-class tax break.

    Moving it from £50–60k, to £60-80k is a huge difference.
  • Options
    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,047

    Do like the plans to abolish national insurance though I expect it will require a royal commission.

    In the fullness of time, Liz Truss will be seen as ushering in an era of intellectual renewal and new thinking in the Conservative party.
    LOL!

    Though in truth I am trying to work out if this is a satirical post or not. Apologies for being slow and thick!
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,756
    CALIFORNIA with 48% counted (valid ballots still arriving, including plenty in today's mail)

    Regular Top-Two Primary for Full US Senate term (2025-2031)
    Adam Schiff
    Democrat 1,247,723 33.17%
    Steve Garvey
    Republican 1,220,683 32.45%
    Katie Porter
    Democrat 519,631 13.81%
    Barbara Lee
    Democrat 276,854 7.36%
    Total reported
    3,762,138

    Special Open Primary for Remainder of late Sen. Feinstein's remaining term (through Jan 2025)
    Steve Garvey
    Republican 1,317,911 34.6%
    Adam Schiff
    Democrat 1,173,917 30.8%
    Katie Porter
    Democrat 610,834 16.0%
    Barbara Lee
    Democrat 356,510 9.4%
    Eric Early
    Republican 258,742 6.8%
    Christina Pascucci
    Democrat 58,335 1.5%
    Sepi Gilani
    Democrat 36,092 0.9%
    Total reported
    3,812,341

    SSI - Note the differences above, esp. that Steve Garvey is currently slightly behind Adam Schiff for the full term, but is running ahead for the remainder of Feinstein's term.

    Note there are 5 counties - Lake, Mono, Placer, San Luis Obispo & Ventura - where Schiff is leading for full term but Garvey is leading for partial.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    edited March 6
    Sandpit said:

    The Child Benefit withdrawal changes look like the biggest middle-class tax break.

    Moving it from £50–60k, to £60-80k is a huge difference.

    Probably helps demand/consumption as I'd just add to my pension rather than have the faff about tapering. (Both me and my other half hover slightly under the old 50k threshold)
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    Do like the plans to abolish national insurance though I expect it will require a royal commission.

    In the fullness of time, Liz Truss will be seen as ushering in an era of intellectual renewal and new thinking in the Conservative party.
    Leaders who usher in intellectual renewal in their parties generally have deep-seated and long-held convictions that remain pretty consistent throughout their political lives. Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair are two very obvious examples. Intelligent, coherent, consistent and strong on communication with an ability to take their parties on a political journey many members might not have been willing to make had they been asked in advance.

    Liz Truss has none of these qualities, her career shows no evidence of coherent thinking, it is notable for its inconsistency and opportunism, her communication skills are non-existent and her intelligence, or lack of it, proved less enduring than the proverbial lettuce.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789
    kinabalu said:

    Needlessly provocative title for a new thread.

    Are you new here?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,653

    Pulpstar said:

    What was so good about the 2015 budget. I note it raised the PA by £600. Which (Well for my household anyway) was less benefit than today's NI cut.

    Ed Miliband walked into an elephant sized trap.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/25/david-cameron-rules-out-vat-rise-in-next-parliament
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/11/milifan-prime-minister-ed-miliband
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,816

    Do like the plans to abolish national insurance though I expect it will require a royal commission.

    In the fullness of time, Liz Truss will be seen as ushering in an era of intellectual renewal and new thinking in the Conservative party.
    Leaders who usher in intellectual renewal in their parties generally have deep-seated and long-held convictions that remain pretty consistent throughout their political lives. Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair are two very obvious examples. Intelligent, coherent, consistent and strong on communication with an ability to take their parties on a political journey many members might not have been willing to make had they been asked in advance.

    Liz Truss has none of these qualities, her career shows no evidence of coherent thinking, it is notable for its inconsistency and opportunism, her communication skills are non-existent and her intelligence, or lack of it, proved less enduring than the proverbial lettuce.
    But the necklace???
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789
    Sandpit said:

    The Child Benefit withdrawal changes look like the biggest middle-class tax break.

    Moving it from £50–60k, to £60-80k is a huge difference.

    As a hard working single parent, I do not benefit from this change.

    When will politicians think about people like me?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,436
    Sod the budget, what better way to commemorate the the death of u-know-who than this? Amazingly this doesn’t appear to be a pisstake.



    https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1765160603855819118?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,694
    edited March 6
    “ Today’s budget didn’t feel like a budget that kicks off a general election campaign in the way Norman Lamont’s budget did in 1992 nor George Osborne’s budget in 2015. I suspect we will have an Autumn statement that will kick off the general election campaign.
    Just look at that Ipsos polling, the Tories need time to turn that around or at least make it less bad, an election in May doesn’t give them that time,”

    To be very fair to you, it didn’t feel like a pre election budget to anybody. Beth & Soph like, how can you have any budget let alone pre election launching budget without a rabbit from the hat?

    Has it occurred to anyone, maybe there’s no rabbits left for this year, this parliament? Rabbit just can’t be done any better than a solid, well thought of budget like this one, when there’s been no growth and no fiscal headroom, now or in the Autumn?

    And maybe too much political commentary is based on history, not on changed or unique situations not there in history, that commentators paid a lot of money to spot for us, and show they really are overpaid for not spotting it.

    Let me keep this simple. You can know right now if the General Election definitely is or definitely isn’t May 2nd by answering 1 question relating to how to get swingback.

    Is the swingback required to make it “less bad” as you put it, just the same as now, easier or very much harder, after the Great Boat surge from July?

    If you are minded to ignore any impact of policy failure on boats, just looking at things fiscally, with voters feeling better off and thinking the country has turned corner later in the year, the election is definitely October or later.

    If you are minded the sub 29% position of Tories in polls is false, and given fair wind can get swingback from what is soft out there on other parties, particularly Reform, but after the Boats Surge in Summer and Autumn, that softness forms up harder to get back, leaving Tories with odd result from just 26%, then your mind says May 2nd.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,816
    Was anyone betting on the colour of the Chancellor's tie?

    Won't be possible next year, with RR doing the honours.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,175

    Sandpit said:

    The Child Benefit withdrawal changes look like the biggest middle-class tax break.

    Moving it from £50–60k, to £60-80k is a huge difference.

    As a hard working single parent, I do not benefit from this change.

    When will politicians think about people like me?
    I said middle-class. Not the 45%ers.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,539

    To return to a point I made earlier about the weakness of the fiscal rule (to have debt falling as a share of GDP in five years time), it is worth pointing out that meeting this rule is based on pretend policies that will never happen.

    The most obvious is that the projection assumes that fuel duty will increase by inflation in future years, but fuel duty hasn't increased by inflation for more than a decade. We go through this charade, every budget, of the chancellor cancelling the planned increase in fuel duty, but keeping future planned increases so that the fiscal rule can be met in the future (but it doesn't need to be met in the present). There are similar promises of jam today and rectitude tomorrow in terms of public spending.

    The current fiscal framework is therefore a complete work of fiction. There is no meaningful intent to control debt levels.

    Britain risks sleep-walking into a repeat of the Truss Disaster if market patience with this approach to public borrowing runs out.

    It's pretty sloppy. Debt can rise every year and forever so long as it's falling in 5 years time. But you never get to 5 years time because it's always 5 years away. Recipe for a gilts downgrade.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    edited March 6

    Sod the budget, what better way to commemorate the the death of u-know-who than this? Amazingly this doesn’t appear to be a pisstake.



    https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1765160603855819118?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    If you want to conquer Europe, you need the right uniforms. Accessorise, baby. Accessorise.



  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,653

    Was anyone betting on the colour of the Chancellor's tie?

    Won't be possible next year, with RR doing the honours.

    Annie Lennox wore a suit and tie in the "Sweet Dreams" video.
  • Options
    ColinColin Posts: 70
    Blah blah budget so boring. Lets have some photos from Leon.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,543

    Was anyone betting on the colour of the Chancellor's tie?

    Won't be possible next year, with RR doing the honours.

    Sexist. Perfectly possible for RR to wear a tie if she wants! However I'd also note that HoC is sexist in its attire code.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,816
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The Child Benefit withdrawal changes look like the biggest middle-class tax break.

    Moving it from £50–60k, to £60-80k is a huge difference.

    As a hard working single parent, I do not benefit from this change.

    When will politicians think about people like me?
    I said middle-class. Not the 45%ers.
    It is the primary role of the Daily Mail to convince the nation that someone on £100k is a middle earner.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,543
    Colin said:

    Blah blah budget so boring. Lets have some photos from Leon.

    BTW are you from accounts?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869
    Sandpit said:

    Betting post: have the odds on a May election shortened in the last three hours?

    No.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,607
    Colin said:

    Blah blah budget so boring. Lets have some photos from Leon.

    Absolutey agree. Where's your favourite haunt of his to date.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869
    Pulpstar said:

    What was so good about the 2015 budget. I note it raised the PA by £600. Which (Well for my household anyway) was less benefit than today's NI cut.

    If he can afford it I imagine the PA will be raised in the Autumn Statement.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,816

    Was anyone betting on the colour of the Chancellor's tie?

    Won't be possible next year, with RR doing the honours.

    Annie Lennox wore a suit and tie in the "Sweet Dreams" video.
    We all know who you have "sweet dreams" about, Dr P!
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The Child Benefit withdrawal changes look like the biggest middle-class tax break.

    Moving it from £50–60k, to £60-80k is a huge difference.

    As a hard working single parent, I do not benefit from this change.

    When will politicians think about people like me?
    I said middle-class. Not the 45%ers.
    It is the primary role of the Daily Mail to convince the nation that someone on £100k is a middle earner.
    100k a year is a middle earner compared to twenty-five years ago when you account for inflation.
  • Options
    ColinColin Posts: 70

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The Child Benefit withdrawal changes look like the biggest middle-class tax break.

    Moving it from £50–60k, to £60-80k is a huge difference.

    As a hard working single parent, I do not benefit from this change.

    When will politicians think about people like me?
    I said middle-class. Not the 45%ers.
    It is the primary role of the Daily Mail to convince the nation that someone on £100k is a middle earner.
    yes and sends their kids to private school. In reality a middle earner in the uk is someone living in a crummy new build in northampton who holidays in tenerife.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,607

    Colin said:

    Blah blah budget so boring. Lets have some photos from Leon.

    BTW are you from accounts?
    Great series.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,816

    Was anyone betting on the colour of the Chancellor's tie?

    Won't be possible next year, with RR doing the honours.

    Sexist. Perfectly possible for RR to wear a tie if she wants! However I'd also note that HoC is sexist in its attire code.
    Indeed she can. But I've never seen her wearing a tie in the Commons, so am merely extrapolating the available data.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,653
    edited March 6

    Was anyone betting on the colour of the Chancellor's tie?

    Won't be possible next year, with RR doing the honours.

    Annie Lennox wore a suit and tie in the "Sweet Dreams" video.
    We all know who you have "sweet dreams" about, Dr P!
    Michelle O'Neill?
  • Options
    ColinColin Posts: 70
    TOPPING said:

    Colin said:

    Blah blah budget so boring. Lets have some photos from Leon.

    Absolutey agree. Where's your favourite haunt of his to date.
    Well cambodia seemed pretty cool. He is right there is more energy and dynamism in the East now. That whole axis east Asia, China etc.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,324

    Do like the plans to abolish national insurance though I expect it will require a royal commission.

    In the fullness of time, Liz Truss will be seen as ushering in an era of intellectual renewal and new thinking in the Conservative party.
    To be fair, the signs of a return to the policies of the 70s should have been obvious when she allowed herself to be photographed in flares.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,756
    ALABAMA new 2nd Congressional District (African American voter majority)
    with over 95% reporting (source NYT)

    Democratic Primary
    Shomari Figures
    24,825 43.5%
    Anthony Daniels
    12,774 22.4%
    Napoleon Bracy
    8,954 15.7%
    8 others
    10,576 18.5%
    Total reported
    57,129

    Republican Primary
    Dick Brewbaker
    22,558 39.6%
    Caroleene Dobson
    15,075 26.5%
    Greg Albritton
    14,434 25.3%
    5 others
    4,903 8.6%
    Total reported
    56,970

    SSI - since no candidate achieved 50%+ there will be runoff primaries on April 16 between the Top Two finishers for both parties.

    Note that the new 2nd CD extends across southern Alabama from Georgia to Mississippi, and is rooted in the classic "Black Belt" so-called due to the hue of the rich soil AND of the African American slaves who worked on this region's plantations before AND after the Civil War.

    Further note that Montgomery Co (county seat city of same name) accounts for 40% of the Dem vote, while Mobile County (ditto) accounts for 30%, with remaining 30% split between 11 smaller rural counties (including George Wallace's home county, Barbour).
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,607
    Colin said:

    TOPPING said:

    Colin said:

    Blah blah budget so boring. Lets have some photos from Leon.

    Absolutey agree. Where's your favourite haunt of his to date.
    Well cambodia seemed pretty cool. He is right there is more energy and dynamism in the East now. That whole axis east Asia, China etc.
    Yes indeedy. Much more.

    An what about Leon's views on AI and how it might be able to generate all kinds of content and activity that for all the world might seem like an actual human. What about that, eh?
  • Options
    WillGWillG Posts: 2,179
    2011: The times does an expose of child grooming gangs, predominantly of Muslim origin groomers targeting young white children. Describes the "conspiracy of silence" because of the ethnicity of the perpetrators.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/revealed-conspiracy-of-silence-on-uk-sex-gangs-gpg5vqsqz9h#:~:text=A culture of silence that,exposed by The Times today.

    2014: Bombshell Jay report estimates full scale of child grooming gangs, predominantly of Muslim origin groomers doing unspeakable things to young white girls. 1400 estimated child victims.

    https://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/download/31/independent-inquiry-into-child-sexual-exploitation-in-rotherham-1997---2013

    2014 onwards: various street grooming gangs come to light in Ipswich, Telford, Rochdale, Huddersfield, London, Luton, Manchester, Birmingham and many others. A common feature is the demographics of the perpetrators and victims.

    2014-2019: Nationwide inquiry into child street grooming delayed multiple timess, despite a number of government petitions reaching the required 100,000 threshold. Eventually, the terms of the inquiry are changed so it isn't focused on street grooming but grooming more broadly.

    2016: BBC releases a documentary on Syrian refugees and the prejudice against them in the UK. A particular focus was unfair accusations of abuse from white girls on Muslim men. One example was Omar Badreddin, who was accused of rape despite being a vulnerable virgin. He is reported as being unable to defend himself as his modest Muslim background meant he did not understand sex. The BBC describes the accuser as fabricating claims of abuse.

    https://twitter.com/UnityNewsNet/status/1764769247316603170?t=2IDSDPovk_BVt-LFB4-svQ&s=19

    2017: Victims of street grooming report, despite the public controversy, their attackers remain at large. "Nothing has changed."

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/may/16/offenders-in-rochdale-child-sexual-abuse-scandal-remain-at-large

    2020: After an FOI request, UK government refuses to release full research into demographics of street grooming gangs, claiming it is "not in the public interest".

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/grooming-gang-rotherham-review-home-office-findings-a9344896.html

    2020: UK government finally releases its report into "group based child exploitation". The term "Muslim" is not used in the report, and it argues that offenders are "most commonly white", dismissing claims of studies that find "black and Asian" offenders are over represented.

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5fd87e348fa8f54d5733f532/Group-based_CSE_Paper.pdf

    2024: A grooming gang in Newcastle convicted of the horrific torture and abuse of a 13 year old girl. The gang included the BBC's "vulnerable" Omar Badreddin and his brother, Mohammed.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-68446855.amp
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    TOPPING said:

    Colin said:

    TOPPING said:

    Colin said:

    Blah blah budget so boring. Lets have some photos from Leon.

    Absolutey agree. Where's your favourite haunt of his to date.
    Well cambodia seemed pretty cool. He is right there is more energy and dynamism in the East now. That whole axis east Asia, China etc.
    Yes indeedy. Much more.

    An what about Leon's views on AI and how it might be able to generate all kinds of content and activity that for all the world might seem like an actual human. What about that, eh?
    I see that Caps is now in fashion. Not consistently, but hey...
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,701

    Sod the budget, what better way to commemorate the the death of u-know-who than this? Amazingly this doesn’t appear to be a pisstake.



    https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1765160603855819118?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Russia also said recently they were reopening the investigation into Stalin's death, on the basis that Western spies probably did him in (because it's what they would have done).

    So the strain of war is leading them to draw on past inspiration.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,754
    George Osborne and Ed Balls talk about the budget and its process. (40 minutes)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4yQoawY6ws
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,824
    Seems like a good budget from what I've seen. Another good step in the right direction on National Insurance - a tax which should be abolished completely (including Employers) with it being redistributed onto all earnings and not just payroll earnings.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,816

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The Child Benefit withdrawal changes look like the biggest middle-class tax break.

    Moving it from £50–60k, to £60-80k is a huge difference.

    As a hard working single parent, I do not benefit from this change.

    When will politicians think about people like me?
    I said middle-class. Not the 45%ers.
    It is the primary role of the Daily Mail to convince the nation that someone on £100k is a middle earner.
    100k a year is a middle earner compared to twenty-five years ago when you account for inflation.
    Top 5% does not equal "middle".
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    kinabalu said:

    To return to a point I made earlier about the weakness of the fiscal rule (to have debt falling as a share of GDP in five years time), it is worth pointing out that meeting this rule is based on pretend policies that will never happen.

    The most obvious is that the projection assumes that fuel duty will increase by inflation in future years, but fuel duty hasn't increased by inflation for more than a decade. We go through this charade, every budget, of the chancellor cancelling the planned increase in fuel duty, but keeping future planned increases so that the fiscal rule can be met in the future (but it doesn't need to be met in the present). There are similar promises of jam today and rectitude tomorrow in terms of public spending.

    The current fiscal framework is therefore a complete work of fiction. There is no meaningful intent to control debt levels.

    Britain risks sleep-walking into a repeat of the Truss Disaster if market patience with this approach to public borrowing runs out.

    It's pretty sloppy. Debt can rise every year and forever so long as it's falling in 5 years time. But you never get to 5 years time because it's always 5 years away. Recipe for a gilts downgrade.
    According to this table https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/rating the UK's credit rating has been downgraded more in the past 14 years than it was in the previous 30 - another tribute to the Tories' economic stewardship.
  • Options
    ColinColin Posts: 70

    Seems like a good budget from what I've seen. Another good step in the right direction on National Insurance - a tax which should be abolished completely (including Employers) with it being redistributed onto all earnings and not just payroll earnings.

    Dont you live in a crummy new build nr Northampton. If so you are the archetypal uk middle earner. Congrats.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881

    Sod the budget, what better way to commemorate the the death of u-know-who than this? Amazingly this doesn’t appear to be a pisstake.



    https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1765160603855819118?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    It’s a measure of the times that it is really hard to tell if that is AI-generated or not. In fact it is impossible to say for sure

    There are moments when it looked decidedly odd, but others when it looks very real. Gun to head I’d say “real”, but I would not bet on it
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,824
    edited March 6
    Colin said:

    Seems like a good budget from what I've seen. Another good step in the right direction on National Insurance - a tax which should be abolished completely (including Employers) with it being redistributed onto all earnings and not just payroll earnings.

    Dont you live in a crummy new build nr Northampton. If so you are the archetypal uk middle earner. Congrats.
    It's not crummy and it's not Northampton.

    But yes I'm far more genuinely middle than most here I suspect.

    Shop at Aldi, Asda and B&M too. As much as that makes @TheScreamingEagles reach for his banhammer as much as insulting Radiohead does for someone else.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The Child Benefit withdrawal changes look like the biggest middle-class tax break.

    Moving it from £50–60k, to £60-80k is a huge difference.

    As a hard working single parent, I do not benefit from this change.

    When will politicians think about people like me?
    I said middle-class. Not the 45%ers.
    It is the primary role of the Daily Mail to convince the nation that someone on £100k is a middle earner.
    100k a year is a middle earner compared to twenty-five years ago when you account for inflation.
    Top 5% does not equal "middle".
    The uneducated shit scum leaver voting racist trash of the Head Count are just ballast existences that should liquidated, comrade.

    Didn't you get the memo?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    The Spectator agrees with @Colin - Cambodia is the best country on earth


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-cambodia-is-the-best-country-in-the-world

    Perhaps relatedly, it is one of the fastest growing countries on earth. And you can FEEL it it when you are there

    https://x.com/x_msfirm/status/1761247079761056214?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,276

    Do like the plans to abolish national insurance though I expect it will require a royal commission.

    Why not just set it to zero?
  • Options
    ColinColin Posts: 70

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The Child Benefit withdrawal changes look like the biggest middle-class tax break.

    Moving it from £50–60k, to £60-80k is a huge difference.

    As a hard working single parent, I do not benefit from this change.

    When will politicians think about people like me?
    I said middle-class. Not the 45%ers.
    It is the primary role of the Daily Mail to convince the nation that someone on £100k is a middle earner.
    100k a year is a middle earner compared to twenty-five years ago when you account for inflation.
    Top 5% does not equal "middle".
    The uneducated shit scum leaver voting racist trash of the Head Count are just ballast existences that should liquidated, comrade.

    Didn't you get the memo?
    Even David Cameron says hes middle class.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,816

    TOPPING said:

    Colin said:

    TOPPING said:

    Colin said:

    Blah blah budget so boring. Lets have some photos from Leon.

    Absolutey agree. Where's your favourite haunt of his to date.
    Well cambodia seemed pretty cool. He is right there is more energy and dynamism in the East now. That whole axis east Asia, China etc.
    Yes indeedy. Much more.

    An what about Leon's views on AI and how it might be able to generate all kinds of content and activity that for all the world might seem like an actual human. What about that, eh?
    I see that Caps is now in fashion. Not consistently, but hey...
    I believe that Peaky Blinders is responsible for that.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789
    Well (and hurrah for lawyers.)

    Two men have been acquitted of paying bribes totalling millions of pounds to high-ranking Saudis after they argued that they had been unfairly prosecuted.

    Jeffrey Cook and John Mason had been accused of bribing a Saudi prince and his associates to secure and maintain a huge defence deal for a British company. But on Wednesday, a jury acquitted them after lawyers argued the payments had been authorised by the British and Saudi governments.

    Tom Allen, the KC representing Cook, had told jurors that a wide array of British politicians, officials and military figures had long known about, and approved, the payments to the Saudis.

    His client, he said, had been “hung out to dry”, as the UK Ministry of Defence had in effect authorised the exact type of payments that the two men were being prosecuted for.

    The acquittal is a defeat for the Serious Fraud Office, which brought a prosecution against the two men, after an investigation that lasted nearly a decade.

    In court, the SFO had alleged Cook and Mason had been at “the very heart of the operation” to pay £9.7m to a group of leading Saudis between 2007 and 2010. It said the payments had been made to Prince Miteb bin Abdullah, a son of the late King Abdullah, and his associates to ensure that a British firm, GPT Special Project Management, continued to receive lucrative contracts from a Saudi military unit


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/06/two-men-acquitted-of-bribing-saudis-in-huge-british-defence-deal
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    A budget clearly aimed at workers with the National Insurance cut and childcare extra funds. Whether it expands Tory support beyond its pensioner core vote remains to be seen
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The Child Benefit withdrawal changes look like the biggest middle-class tax break.

    Moving it from £50–60k, to £60-80k is a huge difference.

    As a hard working single parent, I do not benefit from this change.

    When will politicians think about people like me?
    I said middle-class. Not the 45%ers.
    It is the primary role of the Daily Mail to convince the nation that someone on £100k is a middle earner.
    100k a year is a middle earner compared to twenty-five years ago when you account for inflation.
    £100k is a middle earner in Kensington and Chelsea, Westminster and the City of London, nowhere else
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    Colin said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The Child Benefit withdrawal changes look like the biggest middle-class tax break.

    Moving it from £50–60k, to £60-80k is a huge difference.

    As a hard working single parent, I do not benefit from this change.

    When will politicians think about people like me?
    I said middle-class. Not the 45%ers.
    It is the primary role of the Daily Mail to convince the nation that someone on £100k is a middle earner.
    100k a year is a middle earner compared to twenty-five years ago when you account for inflation.
    Top 5% does not equal "middle".
    The uneducated shit scum leaver voting racist trash of the Head Count are just ballast existences that should liquidated, comrade.

    Didn't you get the memo?
    Even David Cameron says hes middle class.
    Only because saying "I'm Upper Class" is a bit like saying "I'm cool"

    He's a multiple millionaire who never needs to work again. Who can casually pickup more money, whenever he feels like giving a speech.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,607
    Leon said:

    The Spectator agrees with @Colin - Cambodia is the best country on earth


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-cambodia-is-the-best-country-in-the-world

    Perhaps relatedly, it is one of the fastest growing countries on earth. And you can FEEL it it when you are there

    https://x.com/x_msfirm/status/1761247079761056214?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

    Nice prompts. If it's you doing it.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    TOPPING said:

    Colin said:

    Blah blah budget so boring. Lets have some photos from Leon.

    Absolutey agree. Where's your favourite haunt of his to date.
    That haunted southern mansion...with dolls. Seriously creepy.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,816

    Colin said:

    Seems like a good budget from what I've seen. Another good step in the right direction on National Insurance - a tax which should be abolished completely (including Employers) with it being redistributed onto all earnings and not just payroll earnings.

    Dont you live in a crummy new build nr Northampton. If so you are the archetypal uk middle earner. Congrats.
    It's not crummy and it's not Northampton.

    But yes I'm far more genuinely middle than most here I suspect.

    Shop at Aldi, Asda and B&M too. As much as that makes @TheScreamingEagles reach for his banhammer as much as insulting Radiohead does for someone else.
    I call your B&M and raise you Home Bargains.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789
    carnforth said:

    Do like the plans to abolish national insurance though I expect it will require a royal commission.

    Why not just set it to zero?
    Because I know somebody who worked on a similar proposal a while back, the reality there will be some losers at the start, and then you've got to work what the qualifying threshold is to receive a state pension.

    Remember some people can top up their NI contributions and there's a 100 other issues.

    In short this is the sort of policy that keeps a party out of office for a generation if it goes wrong.
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,263
    HYUFD said:

    A budget clearly aimed at workers with the National Insurance cut and childcare extra funds. Whether it expands Tory support beyond its pensioner core vote remains to be seen

    Don't forget Hunt didn't help out the 'pensioner core vote' so maybe they will all vote LAB now.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    carnforth said:

    Do like the plans to abolish national insurance though I expect it will require a royal commission.

    Why not just set it to zero?
    That's the fix for the PAYE payroll programs. Hope there are not too many div by zero issues hidden in there.

    There's a whole bunch of legislation that will need fixing to kill NI. Quite a lot can actually be scrapped, IIRC.

    The one that is most interesting is shifting to everyone gets the same state pension.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789

    Colin said:

    Seems like a good budget from what I've seen. Another good step in the right direction on National Insurance - a tax which should be abolished completely (including Employers) with it being redistributed onto all earnings and not just payroll earnings.

    Dont you live in a crummy new build nr Northampton. If so you are the archetypal uk middle earner. Congrats.
    It's not crummy and it's not Northampton.

    But yes I'm far more genuinely middle than most here I suspect.

    Shop at Aldi, Asda and B&M too. As much as that makes @TheScreamingEagles reach for his banhammer as much as insulting Radiohead does for someone else.
    Hey, I visited an Asda quite recently.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,824

    carnforth said:

    Do like the plans to abolish national insurance though I expect it will require a royal commission.

    Why not just set it to zero?
    Because I know somebody who worked on a similar proposal a while back, the reality there will be some losers at the start, and then you've got to work what the qualifying threshold is to receive a state pension.

    Remember some people can top up their NI contributions and there's a 100 other issues.

    In short this is the sort of policy that keeps a party out of office for a generation if it goes wrong.
    Merge it into income tax then have people top up their ICT contributions. Problem solved.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,484

    HYUFD said:

    A budget clearly aimed at workers with the National Insurance cut and childcare extra funds. Whether it expands Tory support beyond its pensioner core vote remains to be seen

    Don't forget Hunt didn't help out the 'pensioner core vote' so maybe they will all vote LAB now.
    8.5% rise in pension in April following 10.1% last year is more than generous
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789
    Also remember with NI, are we abolishing the employer part as well?

    Then there's the P11D part as well.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789

    carnforth said:

    Do like the plans to abolish national insurance though I expect it will require a royal commission.

    Why not just set it to zero?
    Because I know somebody who worked on a similar proposal a while back, the reality there will be some losers at the start, and then you've got to work what the qualifying threshold is to receive a state pension.

    Remember some people can top up their NI contributions and there's a 100 other issues.

    In short this is the sort of policy that keeps a party out of office for a generation if it goes wrong.
    Merge it into income tax then have people top up their ICT contributions. Problem solved.
    If only it was that simple.

    You will need to align the the upper and lower limits for earnings on NI to match income tax which won't be easy.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,824
    Oh just seen Hunt say about wanting to abolish National Insurance. About damn time, well done! Hunt is really going after my vote it seems, if the Tories would just abandon NIMBYism he'd get my vote back speaking like that.

    Hope Starmer matches that pledge so it might actually happen.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,824

    carnforth said:

    Do like the plans to abolish national insurance though I expect it will require a royal commission.

    Why not just set it to zero?
    Because I know somebody who worked on a similar proposal a while back, the reality there will be some losers at the start, and then you've got to work what the qualifying threshold is to receive a state pension.

    Remember some people can top up their NI contributions and there's a 100 other issues.

    In short this is the sort of policy that keeps a party out of office for a generation if it goes wrong.
    Merge it into income tax then have people top up their ICT contributions. Problem solved.
    If only it was that simple.

    You will need to align the the upper and lower limits for earnings on NI to match income tax which won't be easy.
    We have thresholds in ICT, why can't you just align the thresholds?

    Or better yet abolish upper and lower limits altogether, abolish thresholds, and have a consistent, single, unitary rate of tax that applies consistently to all so that no cliff edges exist anymore.

    And include UC taper in that too by merging that with ICT too.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,824

    Also remember with NI, are we abolishing the employer part as well?

    Then there's the P11D part as well.

    We absolutely 💯 should, yes!
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789
    edited March 6
    Sandpit said:

    Do like the plans to abolish national insurance though I expect it will require a royal commission.

    In the fullness of time, Liz Truss will be seen as ushering in an era of intellectual renewal and new thinking in the Conservative party.
    Nope, cutting taxes and increasing spending massively is so unThatcherite and unConservative that your assertion is laughable.
    She was increasing tax receipts, while reducing tax rates.

    See Arthur Laffer and Nigel Lawson for more details.
    Oh I know about those two but that's not what she was doing, she was cosplaying Thatcher, Thatcher and Howe / Lawson put up taxes and stabilised the public finances when they started cutting taxes bigly.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    As Haley suspends her campaign, Biden calls her 'courageous' while Trump says he 'trounced' her.

    Where her voters go now likely decides the general election and Biden has just gone one up in getting them in his camp
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,613

    carnforth said:

    Do like the plans to abolish national insurance though I expect it will require a royal commission.

    Why not just set it to zero?
    Because I know somebody who worked on a similar proposal a while back, the reality there will be some losers at the start, and then you've got to work what the qualifying threshold is to receive a state pension.

    Remember some people can top up their NI contributions and there's a 100 other issues.

    In short this is the sort of policy that keeps a party out of office for a generation if it goes wrong.
    Merge it into income tax then have people top up their ICT contributions. Problem solved.
    If only it was that simple.

    You will need to align the the upper and lower limits for earnings on NI to match income tax which won't be easy.
    Not easy, but surely easier than sorting out the current dog's breakfast of cliff edges.
  • Options
    ColinColin Posts: 70
    Its this sort of thing that makes people anti immigration.

    JUST IN - 14-year-old girl found dead in the apartment of an Afghan in Vienna, Austria. The girl was drugged and abused — Kronen
    1:47 PM · Mar 6, 2024
    ·
    431.4K
    Views

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1765373687752966291?s=20
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789

    carnforth said:

    Do like the plans to abolish national insurance though I expect it will require a royal commission.

    Why not just set it to zero?
    Because I know somebody who worked on a similar proposal a while back, the reality there will be some losers at the start, and then you've got to work what the qualifying threshold is to receive a state pension.

    Remember some people can top up their NI contributions and there's a 100 other issues.

    In short this is the sort of policy that keeps a party out of office for a generation if it goes wrong.
    Merge it into income tax then have people top up their ICT contributions. Problem solved.
    If only it was that simple.

    You will need to align the the upper and lower limits for earnings on NI to match income tax which won't be easy.
    We have thresholds in ICT, why can't you just align the thresholds?

    Or better yet abolish upper and lower limits altogether, abolish thresholds, and have a consistent, single, unitary rate of tax that applies consistently to all so that no cliff edges exist anymore.

    And include UC taper in that too by merging that with ICT too.
    If it is that easy, can you tell me the rates of personal allowances, tax rates and levels.

    Where do you recover the lost income of employer NI, corporation tax? VAT? and at what level.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335

    Oh just seen Hunt say about wanting to abolish National Insurance. About damn time, well done! Hunt is really going after my vote it seems, if the Tories would just abandon NIMBYism he'd get my vote back speaking like that.

    Hope Starmer matches that pledge so it might actually happen.

    That would be a disaster, NI should be ringfenced to fund the state pension and contributions based JSA and contribute to healthcare as it originally was established for. Otherwise we move even further away from contributory welfare
  • Options
    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,974

    Colin said:

    Seems like a good budget from what I've seen. Another good step in the right direction on National Insurance - a tax which should be abolished completely (including Employers) with it being redistributed onto all earnings and not just payroll earnings.

    Dont you live in a crummy new build nr Northampton. If so you are the archetypal uk middle earner. Congrats.
    It's not crummy and it's not Northampton.

    But yes I'm far more genuinely middle than most here I suspect.

    Shop at Aldi, Asda and B&M too. As much as that makes @TheScreamingEagles reach for his banhammer as much as insulting Radiohead does for someone else.
    I call your B&M and raise you Home Bargains.
    I will admit to all of Lidl, B&M and Home Bargains.

    If there was a Waitrose within 20 miles, I would go there too, but there isn't.


    I'm sure if I had time to fire up a GIS and plot supermarket locations it could tell you quite a lot about voting patterns.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,653
    What are you going to do with your extra £9 a week? :lol:
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335

    HYUFD said:

    A budget clearly aimed at workers with the National Insurance cut and childcare extra funds. Whether it expands Tory support beyond its pensioner core vote remains to be seen

    Don't forget Hunt didn't help out the 'pensioner core vote' so maybe they will all vote LAB now.
    Blair won pensioners in 1997, if they feel ignored they can switch so Hunt taking a gamble there yes
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,653

    Colin said:

    Seems like a good budget from what I've seen. Another good step in the right direction on National Insurance - a tax which should be abolished completely (including Employers) with it being redistributed onto all earnings and not just payroll earnings.

    Dont you live in a crummy new build nr Northampton. If so you are the archetypal uk middle earner. Congrats.
    It's not crummy and it's not Northampton.

    But yes I'm far more genuinely middle than most here I suspect.

    Shop at Aldi, Asda and B&M too. As much as that makes @TheScreamingEagles reach for his banhammer as much as insulting Radiohead does for someone else.
    I call your B&M and raise you Home Bargains.
    I will admit to all of Lidl, B&M and Home Bargains.

    If there was a Waitrose within 20 miles, I would go there too, but there isn't.


    I'm sure if I had time to fire up a GIS and plot supermarket locations it could tell you quite a lot about voting patterns.
    Brand new Lidl opening next to B & Q in Ilford North next week!
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,344
    Biden sweeps every Super Tuesday state by a 70% margin.

    In American Samoa, 91 people voted in a procedural vote which has no bearing on the actual election and a random guy won it.

    Here is how one of the largest newspapers in the country reported it:

    https://twitter.com/Mikel_Jollett/status/1765411507205235176

    Justin Webb did the same this morning. The plonker.
This discussion has been closed.