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George Osborne is right – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,561
    Colin said:

    Its this sort of thing that makes people anti immigration.

    JUST IN - 14-year-old girl found dead in the apartment of an Afghan in Vienna, Austria. The girl was drugged and abused — Kronen
    1:47 PM · Mar 6, 2024
    ·
    431.4K
    Views

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1765373687752966291?s=20

    If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China Border, which side do you bury the survivors?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,453
    edited March 6

    What are you going to do with your extra £9 a week? :lol:

    With fiscal drag, workers earning under £25 000 are worse off according to the analysis, with a marginal gain above that.

    I can't see it shifting many votes.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,961
    HYUFD said:

    As Haley suspends her campaign, Biden calls her 'courageous' while Trump says he 'trounced' her.

    Where her voters go now likely decides the general election and Biden has just gone one up in getting them in his camp

    Biden should replace Harris with Haley in the VP slot.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,961

    What are you going to do with your extra £9 a week? :lol:

    Covers my commuting costs.
  • ColinColin Posts: 70

    Colin said:

    Its this sort of thing that makes people anti immigration.

    JUST IN - 14-year-old girl found dead in the apartment of an Afghan in Vienna, Austria. The girl was drugged and abused — Kronen
    1:47 PM · Mar 6, 2024
    ·
    431.4K
    Views

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1765373687752966291?s=20

    If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China Border, which side do you bury the survivors?
    This lady speaks very well about the situation in Europe. Watch the video.

    It happened again. Another European girl was killed at the hands of a migrant in Vienna and she wasn’t the first one this week. And tomorrow it will happen again, because white lives don’t matter to our globalist leaders.

    But they matter to me, so I’m making you a promise. 👇🏻

    https://x.com/EvaVlaar/status/1765421008142373318?s=20


  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,569

    Colin said:

    Its this sort of thing that makes people anti immigration.

    JUST IN - 14-year-old girl found dead in the apartment of an Afghan in Vienna, Austria. The girl was drugged and abused — Kronen
    1:47 PM · Mar 6, 2024
    ·
    431.4K
    Views

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1765373687752966291?s=20

    If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China Border, which side do you bury the survivors?
    West Taiwan!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    HYUFD said:

    Oh just seen Hunt say about wanting to abolish National Insurance. About damn time, well done! Hunt is really going after my vote it seems, if the Tories would just abandon NIMBYism he'd get my vote back speaking like that.

    Hope Starmer matches that pledge so it might actually happen.

    That would be a disaster, NI should be ringfenced to fund the state pension and contributions based JSA and contribute to healthcare as it originally was established for. Otherwise we move even further away from contributory welfare
    I gave you the like. Most sensible thing said on PB all day.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,954
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    A budget clearly aimed at workers with the National Insurance cut and childcare extra funds. Whether it expands Tory support beyond its pensioner core vote remains to be seen

    Don't forget Hunt didn't help out the 'pensioner core vote' so maybe they will all vote LAB now.
    Blair won pensioners in 1997, if they feel ignored they can switch so Hunt taking a gamble there yes
    They have been helped in every conceivable way over the last 14 years. And they still have the triple-lock and a whole host of protected benefits now.

    I think this shows just how entitled some people can be.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,453
    Colin said:

    Colin said:

    Its this sort of thing that makes people anti immigration.

    JUST IN - 14-year-old girl found dead in the apartment of an Afghan in Vienna, Austria. The girl was drugged and abused — Kronen
    1:47 PM · Mar 6, 2024
    ·
    431.4K
    Views

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1765373687752966291?s=20

    If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China Border, which side do you bury the survivors?
    This lady speaks very well about the situation in Europe. Watch the video.

    It happened again. Another European girl was killed at the hands of a migrant in Vienna and she wasn’t the first one this week. And tomorrow it will happen again, because white lives don’t matter to our globalist leaders.

    But they matter to me, so I’m making you a promise. 👇🏻

    https://x.com/EvaVlaar/status/1765421008142373318?s=20


    Young white girls don't matter much to the rapists of the SMO either do they?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,561
    edited March 6
    Colin said:

    Colin said:

    Its this sort of thing that makes people anti immigration.

    JUST IN - 14-year-old girl found dead in the apartment of an Afghan in Vienna, Austria. The girl was drugged and abused — Kronen
    1:47 PM · Mar 6, 2024
    ·
    431.4K
    Views

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1765373687752966291?s=20

    If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China Border, which side do you bury the survivors?
    This lady speaks very well about the situation in Europe. Watch the video.

    It happened again. Another European girl was killed at the hands of a migrant in Vienna and she wasn’t the first one this week. And tomorrow it will happen again, because white lives don’t matter to our globalist leaders.

    But they matter to me, so I’m making you a promise. 👇🏻

    https://x.com/EvaVlaar/status/1765421008142373318?s=20


    You need to wait before going Full Fash' - establish a rep, etc.

    *Then* you bring in anti-vax etc.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,821

    carnforth said:

    Do like the plans to abolish national insurance though I expect it will require a royal commission.

    Why not just set it to zero?
    Because I know somebody who worked on a similar proposal a while back, the reality there will be some losers at the start, and then you've got to work what the qualifying threshold is to receive a state pension.

    Remember some people can top up their NI contributions and there's a 100 other issues.

    In short this is the sort of policy that keeps a party out of office for a generation if it goes wrong.
    Merge it into income tax then have people top up their ICT contributions. Problem solved.
    If only it was that simple.

    You will need to align the the upper and lower limits for earnings on NI to match income tax which won't be easy.
    We have thresholds in ICT, why can't you just align the thresholds?

    Or better yet abolish upper and lower limits altogether, abolish thresholds, and have a consistent, single, unitary rate of tax that applies consistently to all so that no cliff edges exist anymore.

    And include UC taper in that too by merging that with ICT too.
    If it is that easy, can you tell me the rates of personal allowances, tax rates and levels.

    Where do you recover the lost income of employer NI, corporation tax? VAT? and at what level.
    As I have said I would increase ICT so that it is revenue neutral but have a single ICT level then that is consistent across the board. So an ICT increase for those who currently have too low ICT is where I'd recover the lost income.

    Abolish the taper of UC, the taper of child benefit at 50k, the taper of personal allowances at 100k. No tapers anywhere, but consistent and flat tax rates instead.

    A consistent tax rate would be higher for some, those not caught by any cliff edges currently especially, but lower for others primarily those trapped at the cliff edges. It would be fairer and result in less tax planning to evade getting caught out at a cliff edge.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,487

    What are you going to do with your extra £9 a week? :lol:

    That's five pints of Greene King IPA at Spoons, or 4.5 litres of same from Tesco.

    Would prefer proper beer, of course. But needs must.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,561
    Foxy said:

    Colin said:

    Colin said:

    Its this sort of thing that makes people anti immigration.

    JUST IN - 14-year-old girl found dead in the apartment of an Afghan in Vienna, Austria. The girl was drugged and abused — Kronen
    1:47 PM · Mar 6, 2024
    ·
    431.4K
    Views

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1765373687752966291?s=20

    If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China Border, which side do you bury the survivors?
    This lady speaks very well about the situation in Europe. Watch the video.

    It happened again. Another European girl was killed at the hands of a migrant in Vienna and she wasn’t the first one this week. And tomorrow it will happen again, because white lives don’t matter to our globalist leaders.

    But they matter to me, so I’m making you a promise. 👇🏻

    https://x.com/EvaVlaar/status/1765421008142373318?s=20


    Young white girls don't matter much to the rapists of the SMO either do they?
    That's rescuing them from the false consciousness of Mongrel Ukraine, which is European in outlook, therefore subject to Great Replacement. So the Russians are helping them.

    Didn't you get the memo?
  • ColinColin Posts: 70

    Colin said:

    Colin said:

    Its this sort of thing that makes people anti immigration.

    JUST IN - 14-year-old girl found dead in the apartment of an Afghan in Vienna, Austria. The girl was drugged and abused — Kronen
    1:47 PM · Mar 6, 2024
    ·
    431.4K
    Views

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1765373687752966291?s=20

    If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China Border, which side do you bury the survivors?
    This lady speaks very well about the situation in Europe. Watch the video.

    It happened again. Another European girl was killed at the hands of a migrant in Vienna and she wasn’t the first one this week. And tomorrow it will happen again, because white lives don’t matter to our globalist leaders.

    But they matter to me, so I’m making you a promise. 👇🏻

    https://x.com/EvaVlaar/status/1765421008142373318?s=20


    You need to wait before going Full Fasc' - establish a rep, etc.

    *Then* you bring in anti-vax etc.
    A poor 14 yr old girl found dead and thats your reaction. Disgraceful.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,189
    "Ukraine war: Explosions hit Odesa as Zelensky meets Greek PM"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68492688
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,821

    Colin said:

    Colin said:

    Its this sort of thing that makes people anti immigration.

    JUST IN - 14-year-old girl found dead in the apartment of an Afghan in Vienna, Austria. The girl was drugged and abused — Kronen
    1:47 PM · Mar 6, 2024
    ·
    431.4K
    Views

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1765373687752966291?s=20

    If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China Border, which side do you bury the survivors?
    This lady speaks very well about the situation in Europe. Watch the video.

    It happened again. Another European girl was killed at the hands of a migrant in Vienna and she wasn’t the first one this week. And tomorrow it will happen again, because white lives don’t matter to our globalist leaders.

    But they matter to me, so I’m making you a promise. 👇🏻

    https://x.com/EvaVlaar/status/1765421008142373318?s=20


    You need to wait before going Full Fasc' - establish a rep, etc.

    *Then* you bring in anti-vax etc.
    I thought Colin was an erstwhile globetrotting contributor to the Spectator not a Russian bot.

    Like the pigs and animals though, it's hard to tell the difference.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,707

    HYUFD said:

    Oh just seen Hunt say about wanting to abolish National Insurance. About damn time, well done! Hunt is really going after my vote it seems, if the Tories would just abandon NIMBYism he'd get my vote back speaking like that.

    Hope Starmer matches that pledge so it might actually happen.

    That would be a disaster, NI should be ringfenced to fund the state pension and contributions based JSA and contribute to healthcare as it originally was established for. Otherwise we move even further away from contributory welfare
    I gave you the like. Most sensible thing said on PB all day.
    There's a case to be made for a ringfenced national pensions system but bear in mind the amounts here. NICs at the last count brought in about 178bn of revenue. Pensions cost the government about £112bn. In other words NI pays for other parts of the system that have nothing to do with pensions (including of course social security which is what the regime is partly also for). It could fall quite a long way and you could still have in theory a ringfenced pension insurance regime, with income tax rising to fill the gap on other spending. In fact I think you could almost phase out employee NI completely and put all the burden on employer NI without having to change the rate much.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,821

    HYUFD said:

    Oh just seen Hunt say about wanting to abolish National Insurance. About damn time, well done! Hunt is really going after my vote it seems, if the Tories would just abandon NIMBYism he'd get my vote back speaking like that.

    Hope Starmer matches that pledge so it might actually happen.

    That would be a disaster, NI should be ringfenced to fund the state pension and contributions based JSA and contribute to healthcare as it originally was established for. Otherwise we move even further away from contributory welfare
    That ship sailed long ago, retired, was sold on, retired, sold scrapped on a beach in India, the metal recycled into another ship, which was scrapped... repeat about 20 times.

    NI is just another flavour of tax. Hell, that is the definition that the Treasury/Inland Revenue agreed to in international tax agreements.
    Also worth noting that people unemployed and on benefits get NIC "contributions".

    Only the gullible still think NIC is anything other than a tax. Or contributory.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,524
    Nigelb said:

    Biden sweeps every Super Tuesday state by a 70% margin.

    In American Samoa, 91 people voted in a procedural vote which has no bearing on the actual election and a random guy won it.

    Here is how one of the largest newspapers in the country reported it:

    https://twitter.com/Mikel_Jollett/status/1765411507205235176

    Justin Webb did the same this morning. The plonker.

    Personally think calling the American Samoa Democratic caucus "a procedural vote which has no bearing on the actual election" is off-base.

    > As much a "procedural vote" as say the Iowa Republican caucuses; indeed, WTF is "procedural" in this context?

    > Low turnout is par for the course for caucuses (which is why they are a crock IMHO) for example in yesterday's Alaska GOP caucus in Alaska's 2nd Legislative District (including most of southern AK panhandle) turnout = 2 voters, who both voted for Trump.

    > US territories have zero electoral votes HOWEVER both Democratic and Republican parties have historically allowed territories to send delegates to national conventions, where they have full voting rights, including on presidential nominations - hardly "no bearing"!

    As for the "random guy" he is a VERY dark horse indeed, however worth noting that he DID campaign in American Samoa. As the fifty-something "youth candidate" supporting Gaza cease fire.

    PLUS any quasi-cogent commentary on politics of American Samoa - where America's day ends - MUST include some mention of the late Dr. Hunter S. Thompson. Whose fondest political ambition. was to one day be appointed as territorial governor.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,524
    Colin said:

    Colin said:

    Colin said:

    Its this sort of thing that makes people anti immigration.

    JUST IN - 14-year-old girl found dead in the apartment of an Afghan in Vienna, Austria. The girl was drugged and abused — Kronen
    1:47 PM · Mar 6, 2024
    ·
    431.4K
    Views

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1765373687752966291?s=20

    If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China Border, which side do you bury the survivors?
    This lady speaks very well about the situation in Europe. Watch the video.

    It happened again. Another European girl was killed at the hands of a migrant in Vienna and she wasn’t the first one this week. And tomorrow it will happen again, because white lives don’t matter to our globalist leaders.

    But they matter to me, so I’m making you a promise. 👇🏻

    https://x.com/EvaVlaar/status/1765421008142373318?s=20


    You need to wait before going Full Fasc' - establish a rep, etc.

    *Then* you bring in anti-vax etc.
    A poor 14 yr old girl found dead and thats your reaction. Disgraceful.
    What's disgraceful, is IF it turns out that you are yet another pathetic pimp for Putin.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,189
    One PBer will be happy:

    "Some crew have abandoned ship and others are reported missing after a missile attack on a cargo vessel in the Gulf of Aden off Yemen, maritime security firm Ambrey says."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68490695
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,198

    HYUFD said:

    Oh just seen Hunt say about wanting to abolish National Insurance. About damn time, well done! Hunt is really going after my vote it seems, if the Tories would just abandon NIMBYism he'd get my vote back speaking like that.

    Hope Starmer matches that pledge so it might actually happen.

    That would be a disaster, NI should be ringfenced to fund the state pension and contributions based JSA and contribute to healthcare as it originally was established for. Otherwise we move even further away from contributory welfare
    That ship sailed long ago, retired, was sold on, retired, sold scrapped on a beach in India, the metal recycled into another ship, which was scrapped... repeat about 20 times.

    NI is just another flavour of tax. Hell, that is the definition that the Treasury/Inland Revenue agreed to in international tax agreements.
    Also worth noting that people unemployed and on benefits get NIC "contributions".

    Only the gullible still think NIC is anything other than a tax. Or contributory.
    You can't get JSA now without enough NI contributions at work, only UC
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,586

    Colin said:

    Colin said:

    Colin said:

    Its this sort of thing that makes people anti immigration.

    JUST IN - 14-year-old girl found dead in the apartment of an Afghan in Vienna, Austria. The girl was drugged and abused — Kronen
    1:47 PM · Mar 6, 2024
    ·
    431.4K
    Views

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1765373687752966291?s=20

    If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China Border, which side do you bury the survivors?
    This lady speaks very well about the situation in Europe. Watch the video.

    It happened again. Another European girl was killed at the hands of a migrant in Vienna and she wasn’t the first one this week. And tomorrow it will happen again, because white lives don’t matter to our globalist leaders.

    But they matter to me, so I’m making you a promise. 👇🏻

    https://x.com/EvaVlaar/status/1765421008142373318?s=20


    You need to wait before going Full Fasc' - establish a rep, etc.

    *Then* you bring in anti-vax etc.
    A poor 14 yr old girl found dead and thats your reaction. Disgraceful.
    What's disgraceful, is IF it turns out that you are yet another pathetic pimp for Putin.
    This one is more Leon adjacent than Kremlin adjacent.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,198
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oh just seen Hunt say about wanting to abolish National Insurance. About damn time, well done! Hunt is really going after my vote it seems, if the Tories would just abandon NIMBYism he'd get my vote back speaking like that.

    Hope Starmer matches that pledge so it might actually happen.

    That would be a disaster, NI should be ringfenced to fund the state pension and contributions based JSA and contribute to healthcare as it originally was established for. Otherwise we move even further away from contributory welfare
    That ship sailed long ago, retired, was sold on, retired, sold scrapped on a beach in India, the metal recycled into another ship, which was scrapped... repeat about 20 times.

    NI is just another flavour of tax. Hell, that is the definition that the Treasury/Inland Revenue agreed to in international tax agreements.
    Also worth noting that people unemployed and on benefits get NIC "contributions".

    Only the gullible still think NIC is anything other than a tax. Or contributory.
    You can't get JSA now without enough NI contributions as an employee at work, only UC
    "Jobseeker's Allowance (JSA): Eligibility - GOV.UK" https://www.gov.uk/jobseekers-allowance/eligibility
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,954
    I actually have been looking all day at reports on AI for work.

    Don't tell @Leon
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,416

    HYUFD said:

    As Haley suspends her campaign, Biden calls her 'courageous' while Trump says he 'trounced' her.

    Where her voters go now likely decides the general election and Biden has just gone one up in getting them in his camp

    Biden should replace Harris with Haley in the VP slot.
    I suggested this a few weeks back. Would be a brilliant move.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,416
    I suspect 'Colin' is not long for this forum
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oh just seen Hunt say about wanting to abolish National Insurance. About damn time, well done! Hunt is really going after my vote it seems, if the Tories would just abandon NIMBYism he'd get my vote back speaking like that.

    Hope Starmer matches that pledge so it might actually happen.

    That would be a disaster, NI should be ringfenced to fund the state pension and contributions based JSA and contribute to healthcare as it originally was established for. Otherwise we move even further away from contributory welfare
    I gave you the like. Most sensible thing said on PB all day.
    There's a case to be made for a ringfenced national pensions system but bear in mind the amounts here. NICs at the last count brought in about 178bn of revenue. Pensions cost the government about £112bn. In other words NI pays for other parts of the system that have nothing to do with pensions (including of course social security which is what the regime is partly also for). It could fall quite a long way and you could still have in theory a ringfenced pension insurance regime, with income tax rising to fill the gap on other spending. In fact I think you could almost phase out employee NI completely and put all the burden on employer NI without having to change the rate much.
    It falls to Myself and HY as comrades in arms protecting contributory welfare? For what reason then so many PB keep saying Clement Attlee best PM? For what reason are any PBers labour supporters?

    PB is very confused about how these things work, so let me educate you.

    A system of social security only works with benefits in return for contributions, not benefits funded from taxes, becuase a welfare system reliant on philanthropy/taxation will never work properly - wage slaves and poor people will lack protection and become worse off in any system where middle class just protect themselves with earnings related schemes. Why, because who wants to pay taxes without benefitting from tax paid themselves? it’s whimsically cultural in much the same away as is philanthropy.

    You say the deal is a safety net, but you are not guaranteeing funding. The funding would be whimsical if we move away from contributory welfare. And that would lead to bad things.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,459
    .

    Nigelb said:

    Biden sweeps every Super Tuesday state by a 70% margin.

    In American Samoa, 91 people voted in a procedural vote which has no bearing on the actual election and a random guy won it.

    Here is how one of the largest newspapers in the country reported it:

    https://twitter.com/Mikel_Jollett/status/1765411507205235176

    Justin Webb did the same this morning. The plonker.

    Personally think calling the American Samoa Democratic caucus "a procedural vote which has no bearing on the actual election" is off-base.

    > As much a "procedural vote" as say the Iowa Republican caucuses; indeed, WTF is "procedural" in this context?

    > Low turnout is par for the course for caucuses (which is why they are a crock IMHO) for example in yesterday's Alaska GOP caucus in Alaska's 2nd Legislative District (including most of southern AK panhandle) turnout = 2 voters, who both voted for Trump.

    > US territories have zero electoral votes HOWEVER both Democratic and Republican parties have historically allowed territories to send delegates to national conventions, where they have full voting rights, including on presidential nominations - hardly "no bearing"!

    As for the "random guy" he is a VERY dark horse indeed, however worth noting that he DID campaign in American Samoa. As the fifty-something "youth candidate" supporting Gaza cease fire.

    PLUS any quasi-cogent commentary on politics of American Samoa - where America's day ends - MUST include some mention of the late Dr. Hunter S. Thompson. Whose fondest political ambition. was to one day be appointed as territorial governor.
    You see - you ought to be doing the Beeb's election coverage.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,561

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oh just seen Hunt say about wanting to abolish National Insurance. About damn time, well done! Hunt is really going after my vote it seems, if the Tories would just abandon NIMBYism he'd get my vote back speaking like that.

    Hope Starmer matches that pledge so it might actually happen.

    That would be a disaster, NI should be ringfenced to fund the state pension and contributions based JSA and contribute to healthcare as it originally was established for. Otherwise we move even further away from contributory welfare
    I gave you the like. Most sensible thing said on PB all day.
    There's a case to be made for a ringfenced national pensions system but bear in mind the amounts here. NICs at the last count brought in about 178bn of revenue. Pensions cost the government about £112bn. In other words NI pays for other parts of the system that have nothing to do with pensions (including of course social security which is what the regime is partly also for). It could fall quite a long way and you could still have in theory a ringfenced pension insurance regime, with income tax rising to fill the gap on other spending. In fact I think you could almost phase out employee NI completely and put all the burden on employer NI without having to change the rate much.
    It falls to Myself and HY as comrades in arms protecting contributory welfare? For what reason then so many PB keep saying Clement Attlee best PM? For what reason are any PBers labour supporters?

    PB is very confused about how these things work, so let me educate you.

    A system of social security only works with benefits in return for contributions, not benefits funded from taxes, becuase a welfare system reliant on philanthropy/taxation will never work properly - wage slaves and poor people will lack protection and become worse off in any system where middle class just protect themselves with earnings related schemes. Why, because who wants to pay taxes without benefitting from tax paid themselves? it’s whimsically cultural in much the same away as is philanthropy.

    You say the deal is a safety net, but you are not guaranteeing funding. The funding would be whimsical if we move away from contributory welfare. And that would lead to bad things.
    The benefit system is non-contributory (essentially) now.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,944
    Nigelb said:

    Biden sweeps every Super Tuesday state by a 70% margin.

    In American Samoa, 91 people voted in a procedural vote which has no bearing on the actual election and a random guy won it.

    Here is how one of the largest newspapers in the country reported it:

    https://twitter.com/Mikel_Jollett/status/1765411507205235176

    Justin Webb did the same this morning. The plonker.

    Someone put it well on the radio. Trump has managed to turn the country into one big reality tv programme, the Trump show, on 24/7 with him as both star and director controlling the narrative. The media are so hooked they play along. Next thing to watch, the idea that he is inevitably steamrolling his way to a huge victory in November. Webb will no doubt be one of the first to succumb.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,558

    HYUFD said:

    As Haley suspends her campaign, Biden calls her 'courageous' while Trump says he 'trounced' her.

    Where her voters go now likely decides the general election and Biden has just gone one up in getting them in his camp

    Biden should replace Harris with Haley in the VP slot.
    I suggested this a few weeks back. Would be a brilliant move.
    Haley as Biden's VP would (a) hand the 2028 race to the Republicans, and (b) spark a civil war in the Democratic Party which would (c) hand the 2024 race to Trump. It's the sort of nonsense Aaron Sorkin would have come up with for The West Wing.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,944
    Colin said:

    Colin said:

    Its this sort of thing that makes people anti immigration.

    JUST IN - 14-year-old girl found dead in the apartment of an Afghan in Vienna, Austria. The girl was drugged and abused — Kronen
    1:47 PM · Mar 6, 2024
    ·
    431.4K
    Views

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1765373687752966291?s=20

    If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China Border, which side do you bury the survivors?
    This lady speaks very well about the situation in Europe. Watch the video.

    It happened again. Another European girl was killed at the hands of a migrant in Vienna and she wasn’t the first one this week. And tomorrow it will happen again, because white lives don’t matter to our globalist leaders.

    But they matter to me, so I’m making you a promise. 👇🏻

    https://x.com/EvaVlaar/status/1765421008142373318?s=20
    You're like Leon with a smaller vocab.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,523

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    The Child Benefit withdrawal changes look like the biggest middle-class tax break.

    Moving it from £50–60k, to £60-80k is a huge difference.

    As a hard working single parent, I do not benefit from this change.

    When will politicians think about people like me?
    I said middle-class. Not the 45%ers.
    It is the primary role of the Daily Mail to convince the nation that someone on £100k is a middle earner.
    100k a year is a middle earner compared to twenty-five years ago when you account for inflation.
    £70k is the new £50k and £100k is the new £70k. Inflation has been running wild over the last decade but £70k doesn't actually equate to high income any more and £100k is barely in the high income bracket now.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,741
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Biden sweeps every Super Tuesday state by a 70% margin.

    In American Samoa, 91 people voted in a procedural vote which has no bearing on the actual election and a random guy won it.

    Here is how one of the largest newspapers in the country reported it:

    https://twitter.com/Mikel_Jollett/status/1765411507205235176

    Justin Webb did the same this morning. The plonker.

    Someone put it well on the radio. Trump has managed to turn the country into one big reality tv programme, the Trump show, on 24/7 with him as both star and director controlling the narrative. The media are so hooked they play along. Next thing to watch, the idea that he is inevitably steamrolling his way to a huge victory in November. Webb will no doubt be one of the first to succumb.
    Perhaps a letter to the American electorate might help.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,279

    HYUFD said:

    As Haley suspends her campaign, Biden calls her 'courageous' while Trump says he 'trounced' her.

    Where her voters go now likely decides the general election and Biden has just gone one up in getting them in his camp

    Biden should replace Harris with Haley in the VP slot.
    I suggested this a few weeks back. Would be a brilliant move.
    Her views on Israel/Palestine would be toxic for young Democrat activists.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,558
    Tonight, 9pm, Channel 4: The Rise and Fall of Boris Johnson, episode 1.

    Future generations will think Boris must have been our greatest ever leader, based on the number of dramas and dramadocs about him. When Boris Met Dave; Partygate; This England.

    btw I asked Copilot ChatGPT which series there have been and it found only two: This Sceptred Isle and This England, both starring Kenneth Branagh. Of course, they are the same programmes.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,524
    NYT - Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota has ended his campaign for the Democratic nomination and endorsed President Biden. “Americans were demanding an alternative, and democracy demands options,” he wrote on social media. “But it is clear that alternative is not me. And it is clear that Joe Biden is OUR candidate and OUR opportunity to demonstrate what type of country America is and intends to be.”
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,944
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Biden sweeps every Super Tuesday state by a 70% margin.

    In American Samoa, 91 people voted in a procedural vote which has no bearing on the actual election and a random guy won it.

    Here is how one of the largest newspapers in the country reported it:

    https://twitter.com/Mikel_Jollett/status/1765411507205235176

    Justin Webb did the same this morning. The plonker.

    Someone put it well on the radio. Trump has managed to turn the country into one big reality tv programme, the Trump show, on 24/7 with him as both star and director controlling the narrative. The media are so hooked they play along. Next thing to watch, the idea that he is inevitably steamrolling his way to a huge victory in November. Webb will no doubt be one of the first to succumb.
    Perhaps a letter to the American electorate might help.
    Oh look, it's a dumb facetious comment from Topping.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,821
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oh just seen Hunt say about wanting to abolish National Insurance. About damn time, well done! Hunt is really going after my vote it seems, if the Tories would just abandon NIMBYism he'd get my vote back speaking like that.

    Hope Starmer matches that pledge so it might actually happen.

    That would be a disaster, NI should be ringfenced to fund the state pension and contributions based JSA and contribute to healthcare as it originally was established for. Otherwise we move even further away from contributory welfare
    That ship sailed long ago, retired, was sold on, retired, sold scrapped on a beach in India, the metal recycled into another ship, which was scrapped... repeat about 20 times.

    NI is just another flavour of tax. Hell, that is the definition that the Treasury/Inland Revenue agreed to in international tax agreements.
    Also worth noting that people unemployed and on benefits get NIC "contributions".

    Only the gullible still think NIC is anything other than a tax. Or contributory.
    You can't get JSA now without enough NI contributions at work, only UC
    Wrong.

    "National Insurance credits can also count".
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,741
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Biden sweeps every Super Tuesday state by a 70% margin.

    In American Samoa, 91 people voted in a procedural vote which has no bearing on the actual election and a random guy won it.

    Here is how one of the largest newspapers in the country reported it:

    https://twitter.com/Mikel_Jollett/status/1765411507205235176

    Justin Webb did the same this morning. The plonker.

    Someone put it well on the radio. Trump has managed to turn the country into one big reality tv programme, the Trump show, on 24/7 with him as both star and director controlling the narrative. The media are so hooked they play along. Next thing to watch, the idea that he is inevitably steamrolling his way to a huge victory in November. Webb will no doubt be one of the first to succumb.
    Perhaps a letter to the American electorate might help.
    Oh look, it's a dumb facetious comment from Topping.
    Let's face it if a bona fide wannabe yet faux Hampstead intellectual can't convince the US voters to do the right thing, who can.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,198

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oh just seen Hunt say about wanting to abolish National Insurance. About damn time, well done! Hunt is really going after my vote it seems, if the Tories would just abandon NIMBYism he'd get my vote back speaking like that.

    Hope Starmer matches that pledge so it might actually happen.

    That would be a disaster, NI should be ringfenced to fund the state pension and contributions based JSA and contribute to healthcare as it originally was established for. Otherwise we move even further away from contributory welfare
    That ship sailed long ago, retired, was sold on, retired, sold scrapped on a beach in India, the metal recycled into another ship, which was scrapped... repeat about 20 times.

    NI is just another flavour of tax. Hell, that is the definition that the Treasury/Inland Revenue agreed to in international tax agreements.
    Also worth noting that people unemployed and on benefits get NIC "contributions".

    Only the gullible still think NIC is anything other than a tax. Or contributory.
    You can't get JSA now without enough NI contributions at work, only UC
    Wrong.

    "National Insurance credits can also count".
    Nope, not alone.

    As it also says you have to have also made some National insurance contributions as an employee, credits claimed solely while on benefits don't count although credits while claimed while ill for example would count
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,151
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Biden sweeps every Super Tuesday state by a 70% margin.

    In American Samoa, 91 people voted in a procedural vote which has no bearing on the actual election and a random guy won it.

    Here is how one of the largest newspapers in the country reported it:

    https://twitter.com/Mikel_Jollett/status/1765411507205235176

    Justin Webb did the same this morning. The plonker.

    Someone put it well on the radio. Trump has managed to turn the country into one big reality tv programme, the Trump show, on 24/7 with him as both star and director controlling the narrative. The media are so hooked they play along. Next thing to watch, the idea that he is inevitably steamrolling his way to a huge victory in November. Webb will no doubt be one of the first to succumb.
    Perhaps a letter to the American electorate might help.
    Oh look, it's a dumb facetious comment from Topping.
    Let's face it if a bona fide wannabe yet faux Hampstead intellectual can't convince the US voters to do the right thing, who can.
    I’m sure the Americans want the opinion of some posho in the U.K. as to how to vote.

    Worked so well in 2004.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/oct/18/uselections2004.usa2
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,561

    HYUFD said:

    As Haley suspends her campaign, Biden calls her 'courageous' while Trump says he 'trounced' her.

    Where her voters go now likely decides the general election and Biden has just gone one up in getting them in his camp

    Biden should replace Harris with Haley in the VP slot.
    I suggested this a few weeks back. Would be a brilliant move.
    Her views on Israel/Palestine would be toxic for young Democrat activists.
    It would be an insane move.

    1) Haley would be thrown out of the Republican Party.
    2) Trumps MAGA base would be enthused by the revelation that the Republican opposition to Trump is literally a RINO
    3) The left of the Democrats would take this as proof that Biden is a DINO.
    4) Biden would be handing the presidency (if he won) to the opposite party, if something happened to him.

    It’s about as likely as the Ulster Unionists suddenly favouring a United Ireland.
    It is a shame, I suppose, that Alan Alda isn’t available to run as the moderate Republican who can win 50 states.

    The original planned ending of West Wing was him winning, by the way.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,944
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Biden sweeps every Super Tuesday state by a 70% margin.

    In American Samoa, 91 people voted in a procedural vote which has no bearing on the actual election and a random guy won it.

    Here is how one of the largest newspapers in the country reported it:

    https://twitter.com/Mikel_Jollett/status/1765411507205235176

    Justin Webb did the same this morning. The plonker.

    Someone put it well on the radio. Trump has managed to turn the country into one big reality tv programme, the Trump show, on 24/7 with him as both star and director controlling the narrative. The media are so hooked they play along. Next thing to watch, the idea that he is inevitably steamrolling his way to a huge victory in November. Webb will no doubt be one of the first to succumb.
    Perhaps a letter to the American electorate might help.
    Oh look, it's a dumb facetious comment from Topping.
    Let's face it if a bona fide wannabe yet faux Hampstead intellectual can't convince the US voters to do the right thing, who can.
    Oh do stop it.

    Look at it this way. The other day in conversation with fellow 'man of the world' Alan Brooke you were bemoaning the electoral triumph of bigoted dimwittery in the 2016 Brexit referendum.

    Ok. So we don't want to see the same (times ten) happening this November in America, do we? Least I don't. No apologies for that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,804
    HYUFD said:

    Oh just seen Hunt say about wanting to abolish National Insurance. About damn time, well done! Hunt is really going after my vote it seems, if the Tories would just abandon NIMBYism he'd get my vote back speaking like that.

    Hope Starmer matches that pledge so it might actually happen.

    That would be a disaster, NI should be ringfenced to fund the state pension and contributions based JSA and contribute to healthcare as it originally was established for. Otherwise we move even further away from contributory welfare
    Ummm:

    What happens when the State Pension costs exceed that raised by National Insurance? T

    here is no "pot" of National Insurance savings, it's all gone into the cenrtal pot and it's all been spent.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,198

    HYUFD said:

    As Haley suspends her campaign, Biden calls her 'courageous' while Trump says he 'trounced' her.

    Where her voters go now likely decides the general election and Biden has just gone one up in getting them in his camp

    Biden should replace Harris with Haley in the VP slot.
    I suggested this a few weeks back. Would be a brilliant move.
    Her views on Israel/Palestine would be toxic for young Democrat activists.
    It would be an insane move.

    1) Haley would be thrown out of the Republican Party.
    2) Trumps MAGA base would be enthused by the revelation that the Republican opposition to Trump is literally a RINO
    3) The left of the Democrats would take this as proof that Biden is a DINO.
    4) Biden would be handing the presidency (if he won) to the opposite party, if something happened to him.

    It’s about as likely as the Ulster Unionists suddenly favouring a United Ireland.
    Only if all the left voted for Joe Kennedy
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,198

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oh just seen Hunt say about wanting to abolish National Insurance. About damn time, well done! Hunt is really going after my vote it seems, if the Tories would just abandon NIMBYism he'd get my vote back speaking like that.

    Hope Starmer matches that pledge so it might actually happen.

    That would be a disaster, NI should be ringfenced to fund the state pension and contributions based JSA and contribute to healthcare as it originally was established for. Otherwise we move even further away from contributory welfare
    I gave you the like. Most sensible thing said on PB all day.
    There's a case to be made for a ringfenced national pensions system but bear in mind the amounts here. NICs at the last count brought in about 178bn of revenue. Pensions cost the government about £112bn. In other words NI pays for other parts of the system that have nothing to do with pensions (including of course social security which is what the regime is partly also for). It could fall quite a long way and you could still have in theory a ringfenced pension insurance regime, with income tax rising to fill the gap on other spending. In fact I think you could almost phase out employee NI completely and put all the burden on employer NI without having to change the rate much.
    It falls to Myself and HY as comrades in arms protecting contributory welfare? For what reason then so many PB keep saying Clement Attlee best PM? For what reason are any PBers labour supporters?

    PB is very confused about how these things work, so let me educate you.

    A system of social security only works with benefits in return for contributions, not benefits funded from taxes, becuase a welfare system reliant on philanthropy/taxation will never work properly - wage slaves and poor people will lack protection and become worse off in any system where middle class just protect themselves with earnings related schemes. Why, because who wants to pay taxes without benefitting from tax paid themselves? it’s whimsically cultural in much the same away as is philanthropy.

    You say the deal is a safety net, but you are not guaranteeing funding. The funding would be whimsical if we move away from contributory welfare. And that would lead to bad things.
    The benefit system is non-contributory (essentially) now.
    JSA isn't
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,638
    edited March 6
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oh just seen Hunt say about wanting to abolish National Insurance. About damn time, well done! Hunt is really going after my vote it seems, if the Tories would just abandon NIMBYism he'd get my vote back speaking like that.

    Hope Starmer matches that pledge so it might actually happen.

    That would be a disaster, NI should be ringfenced to fund the state pension and contributions based JSA and contribute to healthcare as it originally was established for. Otherwise we move even further away from contributory welfare
    Ummm:

    What happens when the State Pension costs exceed that raised by National Insurance? T

    here is no "pot" of National Insurance savings, it's all gone into the cenrtal pot and it's all been spent.
    Haven't we had this discussion several times before? Is the ayahuasca lingering on from the night before last?

    (No, not *your* fault. But it seems an odd notion that there is a pot. Propaganda about entitlement, though, does give that impression to the public.)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,189

    Tonight, 9pm, Channel 4: The Rise and Fall of Boris Johnson, episode 1.

    Future generations will think Boris must have been our greatest ever leader, based on the number of dramas and dramadocs about him. When Boris Met Dave; Partygate; This England.

    btw I asked Copilot ChatGPT which series there have been and it found only two: This Sceptred Isle and This England, both starring Kenneth Branagh. Of course, they are the same programmes.

    I really don't like these films and 'fact'-umentaries that occur within a few years of controversial events. whether it's the 'social network', or any of these sorts of films. They always provide somewhat more heat than light - and when it comes to politics, always have an obvious agenda.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,638
    edited March 6
    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oh just seen Hunt say about wanting to abolish National Insurance. About damn time, well done! Hunt is really going after my vote it seems, if the Tories would just abandon NIMBYism he'd get my vote back speaking like that.

    Hope Starmer matches that pledge so it might actually happen.

    That would be a disaster, NI should be ringfenced to fund the state pension and contributions based JSA and contribute to healthcare as it originally was established for. Otherwise we move even further away from contributory welfare
    I gave you the like. Most sensible thing said on PB all day.
    There's a case to be made for a ringfenced national pensions system but bear in mind the amounts here. NICs at the last count brought in about 178bn of revenue. Pensions cost the government about £112bn. In other words NI pays for other parts of the system that have nothing to do with pensions (including of course social security which is what the regime is partly also for). It could fall quite a long way and you could still have in theory a ringfenced pension insurance regime, with income tax rising to fill the gap on other spending. In fact I think you could almost phase out employee NI completely and put all the burden on employer NI without having to change the rate much.
    It falls to Myself and HY as comrades in arms protecting contributory welfare? For what reason then so many PB keep saying Clement Attlee best PM? For what reason are any PBers labour supporters?

    PB is very confused about how these things work, so let me educate you.

    A system of social security only works with benefits in return for contributions, not benefits funded from taxes, becuase a welfare system reliant on philanthropy/taxation will never work properly - wage slaves and poor people will lack protection and become worse off in any system where middle class just protect themselves with earnings related schemes. Why, because who wants to pay taxes without benefitting from tax paid themselves? it’s whimsically cultural in much the same away as is philanthropy.

    You say the deal is a safety net, but you are not guaranteeing funding. The funding would be whimsical if we move away from contributory welfare. And that would lead to bad things.
    The benefit system is non-contributory (essentially) now.
    JSA isn't
    Aren't you confusing entitlement through payments with actual contribution? It can't be an actual contribution system if JSA isn't in its own pot. And what happened when UB was changed to JSA? Did some pot magically evaporate?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oh just seen Hunt say about wanting to abolish National Insurance. About damn time, well done! Hunt is really going after my vote it seems, if the Tories would just abandon NIMBYism he'd get my vote back speaking like that.

    Hope Starmer matches that pledge so it might actually happen.

    That would be a disaster, NI should be ringfenced to fund the state pension and contributions based JSA and contribute to healthcare as it originally was established for. Otherwise we move even further away from contributory welfare
    I gave you the like. Most sensible thing said on PB all day.
    There's a case to be made for a ringfenced national pensions system but bear in mind the amounts here. NICs at the last count brought in about 178bn of revenue. Pensions cost the government about £112bn. In other words NI pays for other parts of the system that have nothing to do with pensions (including of course social security which is what the regime is partly also for). It could fall quite a long way and you could still have in theory a ringfenced pension insurance regime, with income tax rising to fill the gap on other spending. In fact I think you could almost phase out employee NI completely and put all the burden on employer NI without having to change the rate much.
    It falls to Myself and HY as comrades in arms protecting contributory welfare? For what reason then so many PB keep saying Clement Attlee best PM? For what reason are any PBers labour supporters?

    PB is very confused about how these things work, so let me educate you.

    A system of social security only works with benefits in return for contributions, not benefits funded from taxes, becuase a welfare system reliant on philanthropy/taxation will never work properly - wage slaves and poor people will lack protection and become worse off in any system where middle class just protect themselves with earnings related schemes. Why, because who wants to pay taxes without benefitting from tax paid themselves? it’s whimsically cultural in much the same away as is philanthropy.

    You say the deal is a safety net, but you are not guaranteeing funding. The funding would be whimsical if we move away from contributory welfare. And that would lead to bad things.
    The benefit system is non-contributory (essentially) now.
    So you not attacking the principle I carefully explained or saying I misunderstand the principle, you are agreeing this initial principle has been hollowed out over time? Targetting resources on least well off through means testing, taxing those resources, and reducing the scope covered by those resources. Taking away safety nets, ideologically hollowing out the principle with by-product of pandering to middle classes for their votes?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,944

    Tonight, 9pm, Channel 4: The Rise and Fall of Boris Johnson, episode 1.

    Future generations will think Boris must have been our greatest ever leader, based on the number of dramas and dramadocs about him. When Boris Met Dave; Partygate; This England.

    btw I asked Copilot ChatGPT which series there have been and it found only two: This Sceptred Isle and This England, both starring Kenneth Branagh. Of course, they are the same programmes.

    It is quite a story. Sadly he has achieved what he craved. A big place in history. Let's hope the bar he has set for the person of lowest character ever to become Prime Minister stands for all time.
  • HYUFD said:

    As Haley suspends her campaign, Biden calls her 'courageous' while Trump says he 'trounced' her.

    Where her voters go now likely decides the general election and Biden has just gone one up in getting them in his camp

    Biden should replace Harris with Haley in the VP slot.
    I suggested this a few weeks back. Would be a brilliant move.
    Completely crackers.

    The fact Nikki Haley is a rational person who doesn't like what happened on 6th January 2021 does not mean she has anything in common with the Democrats in policy terms.

    She is, as she said in her speech today, a conservative - and a staunch one at that. As Trump's UN ambassador, she managed the US's withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, not just because Trump wanted it but because it's her view - and she says she'd withdraw again. She supported a move to put a federal 15 week limit on abortion, and has side-stepped whether she'd personally want to go for a full ban if she could. She's said Florida's controversial "don't say gay" law for schools fails to go far enough. She's advocated for steep cuts in Medicare and social security. She was staunchly anti-unionisation of Boeing's South Carolina plant as Governor.

    The idea she would, as VP (and potentially President as Biden is famously not a young man) pursue policies that in any way suited even the bluest blue dog Democrat is absolutely and obviously for the birds.

    Putting her on the VP ticket would be, at best, confusing - and in reality would alienate anyone even vaguely liberal. And she'd not have the slightest interest in participating in any way in such a farce.
  • AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    edited March 6
    Boris Johnson succeeded in putting the Tories out of power for a generation it looks like.

    I think in years to come people will re-assess 2019 as the election that Jeremy Corbyn lost and Johnson got lucky.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,198

    Boris Johnson succeeded in putting the Tories out of power for a generation it looks like.

    I think in years to come people will re-assess 2019 as the election that Jeremy Corbyn lost and Johnson got lucky.

    Boris won the biggest Conservative landslide since Thatcher in 2019, it was under Truss the Tories poll rating really collapsed
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,198

    HYUFD said:

    As Haley suspends her campaign, Biden calls her 'courageous' while Trump says he 'trounced' her.

    Where her voters go now likely decides the general election and Biden has just gone one up in getting them in his camp

    Biden should replace Harris with Haley in the VP slot.
    I suggested this a few weeks back. Would be a brilliant move.
    Completely crackers.

    The fact Nikki Haley is a rational person who doesn't like what happened on 6th January 2021 does not mean she has anything in common with the Democrats in policy terms.

    She is, as she said in her speech today, a conservative - and a staunch one at that. As Trump's UN ambassador, she managed the US's withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, not just because Trump wanted it but because it's her view - and she says she'd withdraw again. She supported a move to put a federal 15 week limit on abortion, and has side-stepped whether she'd personally want to go for a full ban if she could. She's said Florida's controversial "don't say gay" law for schools fails to go far enough. She's advocated for steep cuts in Medicare and social security. She was staunchly anti-unionisation of Boeing's South Carolina plant as Governor.

    The idea she would, as VP (and potentially President as Biden is famously not a young man) pursue policies that in any way suited even the bluest blue dog Democrat is absolutely and obviously for the birds.

    Putting her on the VP ticket would be, at best, confusing - and in reality would alienate anyone even vaguely liberal. And she'd not have the slightest interest in participating in any way in such a farce.
    Yet without winning Haley voters, especially Independents, Biden will almost certainly lose in November. Indeed some Haley voters even voted Biden in 2020
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,758

    HYUFD said:

    As Haley suspends her campaign, Biden calls her 'courageous' while Trump says he 'trounced' her.

    Where her voters go now likely decides the general election and Biden has just gone one up in getting them in his camp

    Biden should replace Harris with Haley in the VP slot.
    I suggested this a few weeks back. Would be a brilliant move.
    Her views on Israel/Palestine would be toxic for young Democrat activists.
    It would be an insane move.

    1) Haley would be thrown out of the Republican Party.
    2) Trumps MAGA base would be enthused by the revelation that the Republican opposition to Trump is literally a RINO
    3) The left of the Democrats would take this as proof that Biden is a DINO.
    4) Biden would be handing the presidency (if he won) to the opposite party, if something happened to him.

    It’s about as likely as the Ulster Unionists suddenly favouring a United Ireland.
    It is a shame, I suppose, that Alan Alda isn’t available to run as the moderate Republican who can win 50 states.

    The original planned ending of West Wing was him winning, by the way.
    I don't care what the makers said, I was watching it irl and there was no way Alda was going to win.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,279

    Boris Johnson succeeded in putting the Tories out of power for a generation it looks like.

    I think in years to come people will re-assess 2019 as the election that Jeremy Corbyn lost and Johnson got lucky.

    People will see Starmer as the heir to Johnson, continuing his Red, White and Blue Brexit policies.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,198
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oh just seen Hunt say about wanting to abolish National Insurance. About damn time, well done! Hunt is really going after my vote it seems, if the Tories would just abandon NIMBYism he'd get my vote back speaking like that.

    Hope Starmer matches that pledge so it might actually happen.

    That would be a disaster, NI should be ringfenced to fund the state pension and contributions based JSA and contribute to healthcare as it originally was established for. Otherwise we move even further away from contributory welfare
    I gave you the like. Most sensible thing said on PB all day.
    There's a case to be made for a ringfenced national pensions system but bear in mind the amounts here. NICs at the last count brought in about 178bn of revenue. Pensions cost the government about £112bn. In other words NI pays for other parts of the system that have nothing to do with pensions (including of course social security which is what the regime is partly also for). It could fall quite a long way and you could still have in theory a ringfenced pension insurance regime, with income tax rising to fill the gap on other spending. In fact I think you could almost phase out employee NI completely and put all the burden on employer NI without having to change the rate much.
    It falls to Myself and HY as comrades in arms protecting contributory welfare? For what reason then so many PB keep saying Clement Attlee best PM? For what reason are any PBers labour supporters?

    PB is very confused about how these things work, so let me educate you.

    A system of social security only works with benefits in return for contributions, not benefits funded from taxes, becuase a welfare system reliant on philanthropy/taxation will never work properly - wage slaves and poor people will lack protection and become worse off in any system where middle class just protect themselves with earnings related schemes. Why, because who wants to pay taxes without benefitting from tax paid themselves? it’s whimsically cultural in much the same away as is philanthropy.

    You say the deal is a safety net, but you are not guaranteeing funding. The funding would be whimsical if we move away from contributory welfare. And that would lead to bad things.
    The benefit system is non-contributory (essentially) now.
    JSA isn't
    Aren't you confusing entitlement through payments with actual contribution? It can't be an actual contribution system if JSA isn't in its own pot. And what happened when UB was changed to JSA? Did some pot magically evaporate?
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oh just seen Hunt say about wanting to abolish National Insurance. About damn time, well done! Hunt is really going after my vote it seems, if the Tories would just abandon NIMBYism he'd get my vote back speaking like that.

    Hope Starmer matches that pledge so it might actually happen.

    That would be a disaster, NI should be ringfenced to fund the state pension and contributions based JSA and contribute to healthcare as it originally was established for. Otherwise we move even further away from contributory welfare
    Ummm:

    What happens when the State Pension costs exceed that raised by National Insurance? T

    here is no "pot" of National Insurance savings, it's all gone into the cenrtal pot and it's all been spent.
    Increase national insurance accordingly at least ringfenced it will go direct to state pensions not be a tax
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,453

    Boris Johnson succeeded in putting the Tories out of power for a generation it looks like.

    I think in years to come people will re-assess 2019 as the election that Jeremy Corbyn lost and Johnson got lucky.

    At times it seems to me that in 2019 the electorate wanted Brexit, but not the Tories other policies.

    It may be why the Tories are busy implementing much of the 2019 Labour manifesto, and still stealing Lab policies today.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,561
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    As Haley suspends her campaign, Biden calls her 'courageous' while Trump says he 'trounced' her.

    Where her voters go now likely decides the general election and Biden has just gone one up in getting them in his camp

    Biden should replace Harris with Haley in the VP slot.
    I suggested this a few weeks back. Would be a brilliant move.
    Her views on Israel/Palestine would be toxic for young Democrat activists.
    It would be an insane move.

    1) Haley would be thrown out of the Republican Party.
    2) Trumps MAGA base would be enthused by the revelation that the Republican opposition to Trump is literally a RINO
    3) The left of the Democrats would take this as proof that Biden is a DINO.
    4) Biden would be handing the presidency (if he won) to the opposite party, if something happened to him.

    It’s about as likely as the Ulster Unionists suddenly favouring a United Ireland.
    It is a shame, I suppose, that Alan Alda isn’t available to run as the moderate Republican who can win 50 states.

    The original planned ending of West Wing was him winning, by the way.
    I don't care what the makers said, I was watching it irl and there was no way Alda was going to win.
    The original script plan was for him to win.

    The fantasy faction of the writers won out over the realists.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,189
    With attitudes like this towards women, no wonder South Korea has a demographics problem:

    "A K-pop star has issued a grovelling apology after incensed fans accused her of "betrayal" - because she has a boyfriend."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-68487232

    How *dare* she have a boyfriend!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,158
    Colin said:

    Its this sort of thing that makes people anti immigration.

    JUST IN - 14-year-old girl found dead in the apartment of an Afghan in Vienna, Austria. The girl was drugged and abused — Kronen
    1:47 PM · Mar 6, 2024
    ·
    431.4K
    Views

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1765373687752966291?s=20

    Leon...is that you?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,279
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oh just seen Hunt say about wanting to abolish National Insurance. About damn time, well done! Hunt is really going after my vote it seems, if the Tories would just abandon NIMBYism he'd get my vote back speaking like that.

    Hope Starmer matches that pledge so it might actually happen.

    That would be a disaster, NI should be ringfenced to fund the state pension and contributions based JSA and contribute to healthcare as it originally was established for. Otherwise we move even further away from contributory welfare
    I gave you the like. Most sensible thing said on PB all day.
    There's a case to be made for a ringfenced national pensions system but bear in mind the amounts here. NICs at the last count brought in about 178bn of revenue. Pensions cost the government about £112bn. In other words NI pays for other parts of the system that have nothing to do with pensions (including of course social security which is what the regime is partly also for). It could fall quite a long way and you could still have in theory a ringfenced pension insurance regime, with income tax rising to fill the gap on other spending. In fact I think you could almost phase out employee NI completely and put all the burden on employer NI without having to change the rate much.
    It falls to Myself and HY as comrades in arms protecting contributory welfare? For what reason then so many PB keep saying Clement Attlee best PM? For what reason are any PBers labour supporters?

    PB is very confused about how these things work, so let me educate you.

    A system of social security only works with benefits in return for contributions, not benefits funded from taxes, becuase a welfare system reliant on philanthropy/taxation will never work properly - wage slaves and poor people will lack protection and become worse off in any system where middle class just protect themselves with earnings related schemes. Why, because who wants to pay taxes without benefitting from tax paid themselves? it’s whimsically cultural in much the same away as is philanthropy.

    You say the deal is a safety net, but you are not guaranteeing funding. The funding would be whimsical if we move away from contributory welfare. And that would lead to bad things.
    The benefit system is non-contributory (essentially) now.
    JSA isn't
    Aren't you confusing entitlement through payments with actual contribution? It can't be an actual contribution system if JSA isn't in its own pot. And what happened when UB was changed to JSA? Did some pot magically evaporate?
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oh just seen Hunt say about wanting to abolish National Insurance. About damn time, well done! Hunt is really going after my vote it seems, if the Tories would just abandon NIMBYism he'd get my vote back speaking like that.

    Hope Starmer matches that pledge so it might actually happen.

    That would be a disaster, NI should be ringfenced to fund the state pension and contributions based JSA and contribute to healthcare as it originally was established for. Otherwise we move even further away from contributory welfare
    Ummm:

    What happens when the State Pension costs exceed that raised by National Insurance? T

    here is no "pot" of National Insurance savings, it's all gone into the cenrtal pot and it's all been spent.
    Increase national insurance accordingly at least ringfenced it will go direct to state pensions not be a tax
    You think that if you ringfence it for redistribution then it's not a tax?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,944
    Taz said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Biden sweeps every Super Tuesday state by a 70% margin.

    In American Samoa, 91 people voted in a procedural vote which has no bearing on the actual election and a random guy won it.

    Here is how one of the largest newspapers in the country reported it:

    https://twitter.com/Mikel_Jollett/status/1765411507205235176

    Justin Webb did the same this morning. The plonker.

    Someone put it well on the radio. Trump has managed to turn the country into one big reality tv programme, the Trump show, on 24/7 with him as both star and director controlling the narrative. The media are so hooked they play along. Next thing to watch, the idea that he is inevitably steamrolling his way to a huge victory in November. Webb will no doubt be one of the first to succumb.
    Perhaps a letter to the American electorate might help.
    Oh look, it's a dumb facetious comment from Topping.
    Let's face it if a bona fide wannabe yet faux Hampstead intellectual can't convince the US voters to do the right thing, who can.
    I’m sure the Americans want the opinion of some posho in the U.K. as to how to vote.

    Worked so well in 2004.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/oct/18/uselections2004.usa2
    Posho?

    But you're quite right, it's up to them. My Trump short is effectively a bet on America not being so far gone as to reelect him despite all that is known about him.

    Forget the current polls and Biden's frailty and all the rest of it - this is what it boils down to. It's about the American people. I say they're neither bad nor mad and they won't do it.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,487
    edited March 6
    Another round of US bank jitters?


    Mind you, they have so many banks.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,558

    George Osborne and Ed Balls talk about the budget and its process. (40 minutes)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4yQoawY6ws

    btw Osborne points out the valedictory nature of Hunt's speech. Perhaps Hunt imagines it will be Rachel Reeves making the autumn statement.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,561

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Oh just seen Hunt say about wanting to abolish National Insurance. About damn time, well done! Hunt is really going after my vote it seems, if the Tories would just abandon NIMBYism he'd get my vote back speaking like that.

    Hope Starmer matches that pledge so it might actually happen.

    That would be a disaster, NI should be ringfenced to fund the state pension and contributions based JSA and contribute to healthcare as it originally was established for. Otherwise we move even further away from contributory welfare
    I gave you the like. Most sensible thing said on PB all day.
    There's a case to be made for a ringfenced national pensions system but bear in mind the amounts here. NICs at the last count brought in about 178bn of revenue. Pensions cost the government about £112bn. In other words NI pays for other parts of the system that have nothing to do with pensions (including of course social security which is what the regime is partly also for). It could fall quite a long way and you could still have in theory a ringfenced pension insurance regime, with income tax rising to fill the gap on other spending. In fact I think you could almost phase out employee NI completely and put all the burden on employer NI without having to change the rate much.
    It falls to Myself and HY as comrades in arms protecting contributory welfare? For what reason then so many PB keep saying Clement Attlee best PM? For what reason are any PBers labour supporters?

    PB is very confused about how these things work, so let me educate you.

    A system of social security only works with benefits in return for contributions, not benefits funded from taxes, becuase a welfare system reliant on philanthropy/taxation will never work properly - wage slaves and poor people will lack protection and become worse off in any system where middle class just protect themselves with earnings related schemes. Why, because who wants to pay taxes without benefitting from tax paid themselves? it’s whimsically cultural in much the same away as is philanthropy.

    You say the deal is a safety net, but you are not guaranteeing funding. The funding would be whimsical if we move away from contributory welfare. And that would lead to bad things.
    The benefit system is non-contributory (essentially) now.
    So you not attacking the principle I carefully explained or saying I misunderstand the principle, you are agreeing this initial principle has been hollowed out over time? Targetting resources on least well off through means testing, taxing those resources, and reducing the scope covered by those resources. Taking away safety nets, ideologically hollowing out the principle with by-product of pandering to middle classes for their votes?
    Non contributory was the plan from 1945 onwards.

    Precisely because contributory was seen as a safety net that would fail those at the bottom.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,048
    While we're on removing tax cliff edges, I would propose the following:

    - Scrap the removal of the personal allowance for those earning over £100k with the associated 60% marginal income tax rate that discourages productive people from doing more
    - Reduce the 45% tax band from £150k to £100k

    For very high earners these changes net off to zero (20% x £12.75k = £2.55k, 5% x £50k = £2.5k) and it removes a distortion that is not economically or politically sensible (why should someone on £110k face a higher marginal rate than someone on £1m?)

    The fiscal impact would be lost in the rounding.

  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Colin said:

    Colin said:

    Its this sort of thing that makes people anti immigration.

    JUST IN - 14-year-old girl found dead in the apartment of an Afghan in Vienna, Austria. The girl was drugged and abused — Kronen
    1:47 PM · Mar 6, 2024
    ·
    431.4K
    Views

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1765373687752966291?s=20

    If a plane crashes on the Ukraine/Republic of China Border, which side do you bury the survivors?
    This lady speaks very well about the situation in Europe. Watch the video.



    No thanks. I have better things to do than watch white supremicist shit promoted by someone who has already chalked up 45 posts despite joining the site only yesterday.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,799
    edited March 6
    Evening all :)

    As I suspected, a little jam today, more pre-election jam in the Autumn Statement and a promise of yet more jam to reward steadfast voting.

    When you look at the scale of UK Government spending, today was barely tinkering at the edges, the odd billion here, the odd few million there which sounds a lot but set about the size of the UK economy is trivial in extremis.

    I'm told I will be £9 a week better off - that would have bought me two copies of the Racing Post except they put the prize up last month. The 5% rise in train fares won't help either. The desperate attempt by the Express to portray this as some wonderful giveaway makes a bottle of Coke left open for a week seem fizzy.

    To be fair, it may well be we will end up with a pile of number twos - 2% growth, 2% inflation and 2% interest rates which all in all isn't a bad place to be. It may be Reeves, like Brown, inherits if not a golden legacy then a economy in about the right place.
  • AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    Foxy said:

    Boris Johnson succeeded in putting the Tories out of power for a generation it looks like.

    I think in years to come people will re-assess 2019 as the election that Jeremy Corbyn lost and Johnson got lucky.

    At times it seems to me that in 2019 the electorate wanted Brexit, but not the Tories other policies.

    It may be why the Tories are busy implementing much of the 2019 Labour manifesto, and still stealing Lab policies today.
    It raises the question that if Labour had been led by SKS in 2019 and been offering soft Brexit, if they'd have won. I think they would.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,123
    edited March 6
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    As Haley suspends her campaign, Biden calls her 'courageous' while Trump says he 'trounced' her.

    Where her voters go now likely decides the general election and Biden has just gone one up in getting them in his camp

    Biden should replace Harris with Haley in the VP slot.
    I suggested this a few weeks back. Would be a brilliant move.
    Completely crackers.

    The fact Nikki Haley is a rational person who doesn't like what happened on 6th January 2021 does not mean she has anything in common with the Democrats in policy terms.

    She is, as she said in her speech today, a conservative - and a staunch one at that. As Trump's UN ambassador, she managed the US's withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, not just because Trump wanted it but because it's her view - and she says she'd withdraw again. She supported a move to put a federal 15 week limit on abortion, and has side-stepped whether she'd personally want to go for a full ban if she could. She's said Florida's controversial "don't say gay" law for schools fails to go far enough. She's advocated for steep cuts in Medicare and social security. She was staunchly anti-unionisation of Boeing's South Carolina plant as Governor.

    The idea she would, as VP (and potentially President as Biden is famously not a young man) pursue policies that in any way suited even the bluest blue dog Democrat is absolutely and obviously for the birds.

    Putting her on the VP ticket would be, at best, confusing - and in reality would alienate anyone even vaguely liberal. And she'd not have the slightest interest in participating in any way in such a farce.
    Yet without winning Haley voters, especially Independents, Biden will almost certainly lose in November. Indeed some Haley voters even voted Biden in 2020
    That doesn't mean getting her on an utterly incoherent ticket, where you cannot explain what your shared values and programme are beyond not being Donald Trump, and which confuses and alienates voters.

    Obama needed Bush voters from 2004 to win in 2008... but he didn't get on the blower to Jeb or to a defeated primary contender like Mitt Romney to do it. Trump needed Obama voters to win in 2016, but he didn't reach out to Bernie Sanders. Because it's bonkers.

    You're nice to them, sure. Maybe Janet Yellen has "talks" with Nikki Haley about helping small businesses in southern states. Maybe Joe Biden remarks that he admires her principles and fortitude. Maybe Kamala Harris laments that the GOP doesn't welcome smart, capable women like dear Nikki these days.

    But there is no way to get her on the ticket, it's a terrible idea politically, and it won't happen.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,158

    Foxy said:

    Boris Johnson succeeded in putting the Tories out of power for a generation it looks like.

    I think in years to come people will re-assess 2019 as the election that Jeremy Corbyn lost and Johnson got lucky.

    At times it seems to me that in 2019 the electorate wanted Brexit, but not the Tories other policies.

    It may be why the Tories are busy implementing much of the 2019 Labour manifesto, and still stealing Lab policies today.
    It raises the question that if Labour had been led by SKS in 2019 and been offering soft Brexit, if they'd have won. I think they would.
    I don't believe so. Johnson was the man for the moment. Brexit was chaotic, so was Johnson. He was the perfect fit.

    However he was such an arse he lost all that goodwill within a couple of years.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,944
    edited March 6

    Boris Johnson succeeded in putting the Tories out of power for a generation it looks like.

    I think in years to come people will re-assess 2019 as the election that Jeremy Corbyn lost and Johnson got lucky.

    People will see Starmer as the heir to Johnson, continuing his Red, White and Blue Brexit policies.
    It's a constant source of wonder to me how so many people on here feel able to write the history of Keir Starmer's premiership before a single day of it has yet transpired. PBers are truly an impressive bunch.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,783
    edited March 6
    kinabalu said:

    Taz said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Biden sweeps every Super Tuesday state by a 70% margin.

    In American Samoa, 91 people voted in a procedural vote which has no bearing on the actual election and a random guy won it.

    Here is how one of the largest newspapers in the country reported it:

    https://twitter.com/Mikel_Jollett/status/1765411507205235176

    Justin Webb did the same this morning. The plonker.

    Someone put it well on the radio. Trump has managed to turn the country into one big reality tv programme, the Trump show, on 24/7 with him as both star and director controlling the narrative. The media are so hooked they play along. Next thing to watch, the idea that he is inevitably steamrolling his way to a huge victory in November. Webb will no doubt be one of the first to succumb.
    Perhaps a letter to the American electorate might help.
    Oh look, it's a dumb facetious comment from Topping.
    Let's face it if a bona fide wannabe yet faux Hampstead intellectual can't convince the US voters to do the right thing, who can.
    I’m sure the Americans want the opinion of some posho in the U.K. as to how to vote.

    Worked so well in 2004.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/oct/18/uselections2004.usa2
    Posho?

    But you're quite right, it's up to them. My Trump short is effectively a bet on America not being so far gone as to reelect him despite all that is known about him.

    Forget the current polls and Biden's frailty and all the rest of it - this is what it boils down to. It's about the American people. I say they're neither bad nor mad and they won't do it.
    I say enough of them might, given that this time state houses, governors, and other officials, are much readier to assist Trump should he fall short, whereas last time it seemed to come as a shock and enough key people held firm.

    I don't discount the possibility he just wins outright, but I do think there will be political interference from some states this time if he does not, and violence if that does not succeed.

    Should be interesting in th enext day or so, as he should eventually post a massive bond in the E Jean Carrol civil case as part of his appeal. He's been trying to avoid paying it at all, or most of it at least, but he should be able to come up with the money (or get someone to cover it), but that may make it harder to do so in the much larger one due later in the month.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,189

    Tonight, 9pm, Channel 4: The Rise and Fall of Boris Johnson, episode 1.

    Future generations will think Boris must have been our greatest ever leader, based on the number of dramas and dramadocs about him. When Boris Met Dave; Partygate; This England.

    btw I asked Copilot ChatGPT which series there have been and it found only two: This Sceptred Isle and This England, both starring Kenneth Branagh. Of course, they are the same programmes.

    I really don't like these films and 'fact'-umentaries that occur within a few years of controversial events. whether it's the 'social network', or any of these sorts of films. They always provide somewhat more heat than light - and when it comes to politics, always have an obvious agenda.
    As an example of where this can go wrong:

    "Steve Coogan and makers of The Lost King sued by academic over his portrayal in the film
    The former deputy registrar of the University of Leicester claims the 2022 movie presented him as ‘dismissive, patronising and misogynistic’"

    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2024/feb/29/steve-coogan-and-makers-of-the-lost-king-sued-by-academic-over-his-portrayal-in-the-film

    IMO saying "it's based on a true story" isn't a defence if real people are portrayed in an unfair and negative manner.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,140
    edited March 6
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    As Haley suspends her campaign, Biden calls her 'courageous' while Trump says he 'trounced' her.

    Where her voters go now likely decides the general election and Biden has just gone one up in getting them in his camp

    Biden should replace Harris with Haley in the VP slot.
    I suggested this a few weeks back. Would be a brilliant move.
    Completely crackers.

    The fact Nikki Haley is a rational person who doesn't like what happened on 6th January 2021 does not mean she has anything in common with the Democrats in policy terms.

    She is, as she said in her speech today, a conservative - and a staunch one at that. As Trump's UN ambassador, she managed the US's withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, not just because Trump wanted it but because it's her view - and she says she'd withdraw again. She supported a move to put a federal 15 week limit on abortion, and has side-stepped whether she'd personally want to go for a full ban if she could. She's said Florida's controversial "don't say gay" law for schools fails to go far enough. She's advocated for steep cuts in Medicare and social security. She was staunchly anti-unionisation of Boeing's South Carolina plant as Governor.

    The idea she would, as VP (and potentially President as Biden is famously not a young man) pursue policies that in any way suited even the bluest blue dog Democrat is absolutely and obviously for the birds.

    Putting her on the VP ticket would be, at best, confusing - and in reality would alienate anyone even vaguely liberal. And she'd not have the slightest interest in participating in any way in such a farce.
    Yet without winning Haley voters, especially Independents, Biden will almost certainly lose in November. Indeed some Haley voters even voted Biden in 2020
    Biden making Haley VP would not attract the Haley voters. @SirNorfolkPassmore and @Malmesbury are right, it would alienate them and Biden's own voters. It would be the most imposing act of electoral suicide since Heath called an election on 'Who Governs Britain?'

    Trump making her his VP candidate might work but that requires (a) him to be sane and (b) Haley to be willing to accept. Neither seems terribly likely.

    The biggest risk of all for Trump is that her voters sit on their hands at the election and hand it to Biden by default. That's also the way I read her concession speech.

    (I am assuming she won't do a third party run - all the reasons Trump wouldn't have still apply to her, plus she might still be in the running for 2028 when Trump will definitely not be one way or another.)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,944
    HYUFD said:

    Boris Johnson succeeded in putting the Tories out of power for a generation it looks like.

    I think in years to come people will re-assess 2019 as the election that Jeremy Corbyn lost and Johnson got lucky.

    Boris won the biggest Conservative landslide since Thatcher in 2019, it was under Truss the Tories poll rating really collapsed
    Yes but Johnson begat Truss.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,524
    Seattle Times - NTSB: Boeing not cooperating on investigation into Alaska midair blowout
    by Dominic Gates, Seattle Times aerospace reporter

    National Transportation Safety Board chair Jennifer Homendy delivered scathing testimony during a U.S. Senate hearing Wednesday criticizing Boeing for lack of cooperation in the agency’s investigation of the Alaska Airlines midair door plug blowout on Jan. 5.

    “Boeing has not provided us with the documents and information that we have requested numerous times over the past few months,” Homendy testified.

    She said Boeing has not provided the records required to be kept of the work done to open and then reinstall the door plug.

    Homendy added that the NTSB has asked Boeing for the names of the employees on a 25-person team who work on doors and door plugs at the Renton plant, but hasn’t received the names.

    “It’s two months later. We know for a fact that there is a team that deals with the doors in Renton. There’s an entire team of 25 people and a manager,” Homendy said. “The manager has been out on medical leave, we’ve not been able to interview that individual. We’ve asked for the names of the other 25 people, have not received the names.”

    “We don’t have the records. We don’t have the names of the 25 people,” Homendy added. “It’s absurd that two months later, we don’t have that.” . . . .
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,569

    Seattle Times - NTSB: Boeing not cooperating on investigation into Alaska midair blowout
    by Dominic Gates, Seattle Times aerospace reporter

    National Transportation Safety Board chair Jennifer Homendy delivered scathing testimony during a U.S. Senate hearing Wednesday criticizing Boeing for lack of cooperation in the agency’s investigation of the Alaska Airlines midair door plug blowout on Jan. 5.

    “Boeing has not provided us with the documents and information that we have requested numerous times over the past few months,” Homendy testified.

    She said Boeing has not provided the records required to be kept of the work done to open and then reinstall the door plug.

    Homendy added that the NTSB has asked Boeing for the names of the employees on a 25-person team who work on doors and door plugs at the Renton plant, but hasn’t received the names.

    “It’s two months later. We know for a fact that there is a team that deals with the doors in Renton. There’s an entire team of 25 people and a manager,” Homendy said. “The manager has been out on medical leave, we’ve not been able to interview that individual. We’ve asked for the names of the other 25 people, have not received the names.”

    “We don’t have the records. We don’t have the names of the 25 people,” Homendy added. “It’s absurd that two months later, we don’t have that.” . . . .

    Mentour Pilot's latest video: (he actually flies 737s)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROeGKs4xTfs
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,783
    edited March 6
    kinabalu said:

    Boris Johnson succeeded in putting the Tories out of power for a generation it looks like.

    I think in years to come people will re-assess 2019 as the election that Jeremy Corbyn lost and Johnson got lucky.

    People will see Starmer as the heir to Johnson, continuing his Red, White and Blue Brexit policies.
    It's a constant source of wonder to me how so many people on here feel able to write the history of Keir Starmer's premiership before a single day of it has yet transpired. PBers are truly an impressive bunch.
    The one that gets me is when people say that he will lose all goodwill within a year as his lack of policies or whatever other reason becomes apparent as though its a devastating critique.

    I mean, that might happen, he hasn't even won yet and he's not exciting most people, but it's not much of a warning. Sure it'd be a short honeymoon, but losing goodwill would happen at some point.

    I think we generally expect our politicians to be a bit crappy but hopefully with a few key wins and that their time will coincide with some stability and growth - if we get that, through luck or skill, he'll do ok, if we don't he'll lose support. How quickly will depend on if the Tories are busy tearing themselves apart or indulging in their own fantasies or not.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,123
    edited March 6

    Foxy said:

    Boris Johnson succeeded in putting the Tories out of power for a generation it looks like.

    I think in years to come people will re-assess 2019 as the election that Jeremy Corbyn lost and Johnson got lucky.

    At times it seems to me that in 2019 the electorate wanted Brexit, but not the Tories other policies.

    It may be why the Tories are busy implementing much of the 2019 Labour manifesto, and still stealing Lab policies today.
    It raises the question that if Labour had been led by SKS in 2019 and been offering soft Brexit, if they'd have won. I think they would.
    But SKS was shadow Brexit Secretary at the time and the policy they offered was his policy. So your counterfactual requires two things to be different - both Starmer to have been leader somehow, and for him to have had a full brain transplant at some point in 2018ish.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,758

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    As Haley suspends her campaign, Biden calls her 'courageous' while Trump says he 'trounced' her.

    Where her voters go now likely decides the general election and Biden has just gone one up in getting them in his camp

    Biden should replace Harris with Haley in the VP slot.
    I suggested this a few weeks back. Would be a brilliant move.
    Her views on Israel/Palestine would be toxic for young Democrat activists.
    It would be an insane move.

    1) Haley would be thrown out of the Republican Party.
    2) Trumps MAGA base would be enthused by the revelation that the Republican opposition to Trump is literally a RINO
    3) The left of the Democrats would take this as proof that Biden is a DINO.
    4) Biden would be handing the presidency (if he won) to the opposite party, if something happened to him.

    It’s about as likely as the Ulster Unionists suddenly favouring a United Ireland.
    It is a shame, I suppose, that Alan Alda isn’t available to run as the moderate Republican who can win 50 states.

    The original planned ending of West Wing was him winning, by the way.
    I don't care what the makers said, I was watching it irl and there was no way Alda was going to win.
    The original script plan was for him to win.

    The fantasy faction of the writers won out over the realists.
    I'm sure somebody in the writers room advocated for it. But there's a difference between "wouldn't it be a good idea if..." and "here is the plan".
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,140

    Tonight, 9pm, Channel 4: The Rise and Fall of Boris Johnson, episode 1.

    Future generations will think Boris must have been our greatest ever leader, based on the number of dramas and dramadocs about him. When Boris Met Dave; Partygate; This England.

    btw I asked Copilot ChatGPT which series there have been and it found only two: This Sceptred Isle and This England, both starring Kenneth Branagh. Of course, they are the same programmes.

    I really don't like these films and 'fact'-umentaries that occur within a few years of controversial events. whether it's the 'social network', or any of these sorts of films. They always provide somewhat more heat than light - and when it comes to politics, always have an obvious agenda.
    As an example of where this can go wrong:

    "Steve Coogan and makers of The Lost King sued by academic over his portrayal in the film
    The former deputy registrar of the University of Leicester claims the 2022 movie presented him as ‘dismissive, patronising and misogynistic’"

    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2024/feb/29/steve-coogan-and-makers-of-the-lost-king-sued-by-academic-over-his-portrayal-in-the-film

    IMO saying "it's based on a true story" isn't a defence if real people are portrayed in an unfair and negative manner.
    Should have based it on Robert Pearce and Lampeter 20 years back.

    Having been involved on the fringes of that, there's no way they could have come up with something that was worse than the reality so they would have been perfectly safe.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,219

    Do like the plans to abolish national insurance though I expect it will require a royal commission.

    I haven't fully caught up on the budget, but as a huge critic of Sunak and Hunt, I commend them for continuing to reduce NI. A long term goal of abolishing it would tidy up the tax system and make it fairer.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,783
    HYUFD said:

    Boris Johnson succeeded in putting the Tories out of power for a generation it looks like.

    I think in years to come people will re-assess 2019 as the election that Jeremy Corbyn lost and Johnson got lucky.

    Boris won the biggest Conservative landslide since Thatcher in 2019, it was under Truss the Tories poll rating really collapsed
    Maybe that was, in part, because she said Boris was great and should not have been ousted, but also that the government had been going in the wrong economic direction for a long time and needed to completely change.

    That might even have been correct to some degree, but it's a confusing message. I don't buy for one minute that Boris was restrained by a young and inexperienced Chancellor he appointed from a junior position, and he was totally wanting to completely change his economic stance but, gasp, he was ousted before he could do so.
  • AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    Why can't I see who liked my posts anymore? Is it because I am too popular?
  • ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    As Haley suspends her campaign, Biden calls her 'courageous' while Trump says he 'trounced' her.

    Where her voters go now likely decides the general election and Biden has just gone one up in getting them in his camp

    Biden should replace Harris with Haley in the VP slot.
    I suggested this a few weeks back. Would be a brilliant move.
    Completely crackers.

    The fact Nikki Haley is a rational person who doesn't like what happened on 6th January 2021 does not mean she has anything in common with the Democrats in policy terms.

    She is, as she said in her speech today, a conservative - and a staunch one at that. As Trump's UN ambassador, she managed the US's withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, not just because Trump wanted it but because it's her view - and she says she'd withdraw again. She supported a move to put a federal 15 week limit on abortion, and has side-stepped whether she'd personally want to go for a full ban if she could. She's said Florida's controversial "don't say gay" law for schools fails to go far enough. She's advocated for steep cuts in Medicare and social security. She was staunchly anti-unionisation of Boeing's South Carolina plant as Governor.

    The idea she would, as VP (and potentially President as Biden is famously not a young man) pursue policies that in any way suited even the bluest blue dog Democrat is absolutely and obviously for the birds.

    Putting her on the VP ticket would be, at best, confusing - and in reality would alienate anyone even vaguely liberal. And she'd not have the slightest interest in participating in any way in such a farce.
    Yet without winning Haley voters, especially Independents, Biden will almost certainly lose in November. Indeed some Haley voters even voted Biden in 2020
    Biden making Haley VP would not attract the Haley voters. @SirNorfolkPassmore and @Malmesbury are right, it would alienate them and Biden's own voters. It would be the most imposing act of electoral suicide since Heath called an election on 'Who Governs Britain?'

    Trump making her his VP candidate might work but that requires (a) him to be sane and (b) Haley to be willing to accept. Neither seems terribly likely.

    The biggest risk of all for Trump is that her voters sit on their hands at the election and hand it to Biden by default. That's also the way I read her concession speech.

    (I am assuming she won't do a third party run - all the reasons Trump wouldn't have still apply to her, plus she might still be in the running for 2028 when Trump will definitely not be one way or another.)

    Unfortunately, I'm a shade concerned that the word "definitely" in your last sentence is doing some fairly heavy lifting there, particularly as you've not specified which Trump.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,219

    Sandpit said:

    Do like the plans to abolish national insurance though I expect it will require a royal commission.

    In the fullness of time, Liz Truss will be seen as ushering in an era of intellectual renewal and new thinking in the Conservative party.
    Nope, cutting taxes and increasing spending massively is so unThatcherite and unConservative that your assertion is laughable.
    She was increasing tax receipts, while reducing tax rates.

    See Arthur Laffer and Nigel Lawson for more details.
    Oh I know about those two but that's not what she was doing, she was cosplaying Thatcher, Thatcher and Howe / Lawson put up taxes and stabilised the public finances when they started cutting taxes bigly.
    Lawson and Thatcher did not face taxes on the scale of World War 2 when they came to power. Had they done so, I strongly doubt that they would have put them up - they would probably still have sought to balance the books, but with spending cuts.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,140

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    As Haley suspends her campaign, Biden calls her 'courageous' while Trump says he 'trounced' her.

    Where her voters go now likely decides the general election and Biden has just gone one up in getting them in his camp

    Biden should replace Harris with Haley in the VP slot.
    I suggested this a few weeks back. Would be a brilliant move.
    Completely crackers.

    The fact Nikki Haley is a rational person who doesn't like what happened on 6th January 2021 does not mean she has anything in common with the Democrats in policy terms.

    She is, as she said in her speech today, a conservative - and a staunch one at that. As Trump's UN ambassador, she managed the US's withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, not just because Trump wanted it but because it's her view - and she says she'd withdraw again. She supported a move to put a federal 15 week limit on abortion, and has side-stepped whether she'd personally want to go for a full ban if she could. She's said Florida's controversial "don't say gay" law for schools fails to go far enough. She's advocated for steep cuts in Medicare and social security. She was staunchly anti-unionisation of Boeing's South Carolina plant as Governor.

    The idea she would, as VP (and potentially President as Biden is famously not a young man) pursue policies that in any way suited even the bluest blue dog Democrat is absolutely and obviously for the birds.

    Putting her on the VP ticket would be, at best, confusing - and in reality would alienate anyone even vaguely liberal. And she'd not have the slightest interest in participating in any way in such a farce.
    Yet without winning Haley voters, especially Independents, Biden will almost certainly lose in November. Indeed some Haley voters even voted Biden in 2020
    Biden making Haley VP would not attract the Haley voters. @SirNorfolkPassmore and @Malmesbury are right, it would alienate them and Biden's own voters. It would be the most imposing act of electoral suicide since Heath called an election on 'Who Governs Britain?'

    Trump making her his VP candidate might work but that requires (a) him to be sane and (b) Haley to be willing to accept. Neither seems terribly likely.

    The biggest risk of all for Trump is that her voters sit on their hands at the election and hand it to Biden by default. That's also the way I read her concession speech.

    (I am assuming she won't do a third party run - all the reasons Trump wouldn't have still apply to her, plus she might still be in the running for 2028 when Trump will definitely not be one way or another.)

    Unfortunately, I'm a shade concerned that the word "definitely" in your last sentence is doing some fairly heavy lifting there, particularly as you've not specified which Trump.
    Fair point.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,783
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    As Haley suspends her campaign, Biden calls her 'courageous' while Trump says he 'trounced' her.

    Where her voters go now likely decides the general election and Biden has just gone one up in getting them in his camp

    Biden should replace Harris with Haley in the VP slot.
    I suggested this a few weeks back. Would be a brilliant move.
    Completely crackers.

    The fact Nikki Haley is a rational person who doesn't like what happened on 6th January 2021 does not mean she has anything in common with the Democrats in policy terms.

    She is, as she said in her speech today, a conservative - and a staunch one at that. As Trump's UN ambassador, she managed the US's withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, not just because Trump wanted it but because it's her view - and she says she'd withdraw again. She supported a move to put a federal 15 week limit on abortion, and has side-stepped whether she'd personally want to go for a full ban if she could. She's said Florida's controversial "don't say gay" law for schools fails to go far enough. She's advocated for steep cuts in Medicare and social security. She was staunchly anti-unionisation of Boeing's South Carolina plant as Governor.

    The idea she would, as VP (and potentially President as Biden is famously not a young man) pursue policies that in any way suited even the bluest blue dog Democrat is absolutely and obviously for the birds.

    Putting her on the VP ticket would be, at best, confusing - and in reality would alienate anyone even vaguely liberal. And she'd not have the slightest interest in participating in any way in such a farce.
    Yet without winning Haley voters, especially Independents, Biden will almost certainly lose in November. Indeed some Haley voters even voted Biden in 2020
    Biden making Haley VP would not attract the Haley voters. @SirNorfolkPassmore and @Malmesbury are right, it would alienate them and Biden's own voters. It would be the most imposing act of electoral suicide since Heath called an election on 'Who Governs Britain?'

    Trump making her his VP candidate might work but that requires (a) him to be sane and (b) Haley to be willing to accept. Neither seems terribly likely.

    The biggest risk of all for Trump is that her voters sit on their hands at the election and hand it to Biden by default. That's also the way I read her concession speech.

    (I am assuming she won't do a third party run - all the reasons Trump wouldn't have still apply to her, plus she might still be in the running for 2028 when Trump will definitely not be one way or another.)
    A lot of anti-Trump Republicans have been pretty mild in their criticism of him, or they have confusingly been quite damning but still committed to supporting him nonetheless. It's understandable when it's people who still want to be relevant in the party since you cannot be outright opposed to Trump and do that, though people who bend the knee still get mocked and attacked for their sin of standing against him so it's questionable if it is worth it. But it's surprising there are not more who are essentially out of the game being willing to be more unequivocal.

    With Haley if she is indeed wanting to see him lose, it is presumably a fine line - she has ramped up criticism, but waverers may turn back to Trump if she says vote Biden or stay at home. But if she can play it as Trump has to earn your vote, wink wink he hasn't, then possibly that is more effective?

    As it is once they drop out have any candidates been relevant? I don't see anything much from Christie anymore.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,944
    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Taz said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Biden sweeps every Super Tuesday state by a 70% margin.

    In American Samoa, 91 people voted in a procedural vote which has no bearing on the actual election and a random guy won it.

    Here is how one of the largest newspapers in the country reported it:

    https://twitter.com/Mikel_Jollett/status/1765411507205235176

    Justin Webb did the same this morning. The plonker.

    Someone put it well on the radio. Trump has managed to turn the country into one big reality tv programme, the Trump show, on 24/7 with him as both star and director controlling the narrative. The media are so hooked they play along. Next thing to watch, the idea that he is inevitably steamrolling his way to a huge victory in November. Webb will no doubt be one of the first to succumb.
    Perhaps a letter to the American electorate might help.
    Oh look, it's a dumb facetious comment from Topping.
    Let's face it if a bona fide wannabe yet faux Hampstead intellectual can't convince the US voters to do the right thing, who can.
    I’m sure the Americans want the opinion of some posho in the U.K. as to how to vote.

    Worked so well in 2004.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/oct/18/uselections2004.usa2
    Posho?

    But you're quite right, it's up to them. My Trump short is effectively a bet on America not being so far gone as to reelect him despite all that is known about him.

    Forget the current polls and Biden's frailty and all the rest of it - this is what it boils down to. It's about the American people. I say they're neither bad nor mad and they won't do it.
    I say enough of them might, given that this time state houses, governors, and other officials, are much readier to assist Trump should he fall short, whereas last time it seemed to come as a shock and enough key people held firm.

    I don't discount the possibility he just wins outright, but I do think there will be political interference from some states this time if he does not, and violence if that does not succeed.

    Should be interesting in th enext day or so, as he should eventually post a massive bond in the E Jean Carrol civil case as part of his appeal. He's been trying to avoid paying it at all, or most of it at least, but he should be able to come up with the money (or get someone to cover it), but that may make it harder to do so in the much larger one due later in the month.
    Yes, logically he's fairly priced at evens. It looks a coin toss. Against that is my faith and intuition that when the chips are down America will not do it. And of course although I set great store by my faith and intuition (it rarely lets me down) I don't expect others to.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,140
    edited March 6
    Although this is a serious case, I can't help feeling it's pretty poor that it took fifteen months to get through it. It was after all an administrative inquiry. Were there criminal investigations ongoing that took precedence?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-68490882
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,219

    Colin said:

    Seems like a good budget from what I've seen. Another good step in the right direction on National Insurance - a tax which should be abolished completely (including Employers) with it being redistributed onto all earnings and not just payroll earnings.

    Dont you live in a crummy new build nr Northampton. If so you are the archetypal uk middle earner. Congrats.
    It's not crummy and it's not Northampton.

    But yes I'm far more genuinely middle than most here I suspect.

    Shop at Aldi, Asda and B&M too. As much as that makes @TheScreamingEagles reach for his banhammer as much as insulting Radiohead does for someone else.
    I call your B&M and raise you Home Bargains.
    Are you both short of Yankee Candles?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,944
    edited March 6
    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Boris Johnson succeeded in putting the Tories out of power for a generation it looks like.

    I think in years to come people will re-assess 2019 as the election that Jeremy Corbyn lost and Johnson got lucky.

    People will see Starmer as the heir to Johnson, continuing his Red, White and Blue Brexit policies.
    It's a constant source of wonder to me how so many people on here feel able to write the history of Keir Starmer's premiership before a single day of it has yet transpired. PBers are truly an impressive bunch.
    The one that gets me is when people say that he will lose all goodwill within a year as his lack of policies or whatever other reason becomes apparent as though its a devastating critique.

    I mean, that might happen, he hasn't even won yet and he's not exciting most people, but it's not much of a warning. Sure it'd be a short honeymoon, but losing goodwill would happen at some point.

    I think we generally expect our politicians to be a bit crappy but hopefully with a few key wins and that their time will coincide with some stability and growth - if we get that, through luck or skill, he'll do ok, if we don't he'll lose support. How quickly will depend on if the Tories are busy tearing themselves apart or indulging in their own fantasies or not.
    Winning a big majority with at the same time low expectations for what you will deliver is a rare and fabulous way to begin your time in office.
This discussion has been closed.