Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

What to read in to this? – politicalbetting.com

2456

Comments

  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,102

    This week will see Russian losses pass through 9,500 artillery pieces, 12,000 armoured fighting vehicles, maybe 6,500 tanks and through 400,000 casualties.

    The worst aspect of those numbers is they are all to get Putin "democratically" elected.

    Don't be a Russophobe.

    At 20-35 tanks being produced per month it will take only 185 months to replace them.

    Assuming the Ukrainian Jewish Nazis stop destroying Heroic! Russian! Tanks!
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    DESPITE THE PROVOCATION FROM eg MEXICANPETE

    You’re sounding and acting like Leon.

    Spoiler: That’s not a good thing.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,088

    nico679 said:

    Good morning

    Labour down 5% on this poll

    Tomorrow's by elections should show if this is happening or if it is all smoke and mirrors

    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1757665864696971522?t=zfbTQL3aas6Qcnfmr03h_w&s=19

    Most of that poll was done before Ali-gate.
    Maybe a reaction to the green u-turn . Certainly it’s been a bad week for Labour and not what you want in the run up to the by-elections .

    Perhaps the postal votes might help them seeing as most would have been in before things went south.
    Sky reporting a third labour politician has been spoken to

    https://news.sky.com/story/third-labour-politician-spoken-to-over-meeting-at-centre-of-antisemitism-row-13071272
    It wouldn't surprise me if dozens of Labur MPs have said stuff like this. A potential catastrophe
  • Options

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Want an end to civilian casualties? Then there's a simple solution: Hamas lays down their arms unconditionally and releases the hostages. Otherwise the war continues.

    Exactly what David Cameron (pbuh) said yesterday in the HoL.

    And we know that DC can say or do no wrong.
    But ever civilian casualty recruits more people into Hamas rather than sitting on the sidelines.

    Even before you see the complete lack of hope that Israel is offering everyone in Gaza which again will be pushing people towards actively supporting Hamas because they’ve got nothing else so they may as well.

    Indeed. Nor do they offer any hope to Palestinians in the West Bank either. Nor that much to Arab Israelis.

    The conflict in Northern Ireland was ended because the conditions of the Catholic population were improved. The conflict in the Basque country was ended because the conditions of the Basque population were improved. And so on.
    Israel removed its military and settlements from Gaza in 2005.

    From then on Gaza was the responsibility of the people who lived there.

    What did they achieve apart from doubling its population.

    Overpopulating doesn't improve conditions.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,067
    edited February 14
    I note inflation remains at 4%. Why is it then that I can hear Huw Pill and Catherine Mann's upcoming Telegraph editorials

    "You lot need to suffer more pain yet" whirring away in the background ?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,088
    edited February 14
    Why did no one tell me about the Apple Series FOR ALL MANKIND

    It's fantastic. Admittedly, I have only watched one episode, but it is brilliant

    The bait and switch on the moon landing is GENIUS
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,067

    PJH said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Inflation stays at 4%

    *brushes fingernails quietly*

    Next up, did the UK really suffer a technical recession in Q4 and Q1? I think not.
    It's easy to get carried away by the technical details and for the government to pop the champagne and slap each other on the back for a job well done in lowering inflation. Out in the real world, mortgages are as costly and as unaffordable as they've ever been and hundreds of thousands of mortgage holders have still yet to remortgage onto much higher rates. Energy bills are still crippling, food still going up. Mortgage arrears are at their highest rate since the GFC. Business insolvency ditto. It's grim out there
    The inflation figures don't lie, but they ain't telling the truth either.
    Oh I agree with all of that. Real wages are rising by more than 2% a year on average now but that does not come close to offsetting the additional costs borne by those with mortgages in particular. Many people are struggling and 4% inflation is not great. Some lenders are edging their mortgage offers back up again now on the assumption that base rates are going to fall more slowly than once thought. That is very much the way I see it, particularly if I am right that a technical recession is avoided.
    Don't forget that about a year ago, inflation was 11% and pay rises were at best 5-6%; so if you're working for a typical employer such as mine this year offering about 1-2% above inflation it will take about another 3 years or so to close that gap before people start feeling better than slightly less badly off compared to before.
    In reality people were on average about 3% worse off for a year and nearly half of that has already been recovered.

    But what is forgotten is how much real pay increased in 2021.

    From the ONS:

    Total pay (real):

    Jan-Mar 2020 +0.5%
    Apr-Jun 2020 -1.8%
    Jul-Sep 2020 +0.7%
    Oct-Dec 2020 +3.8%
    Jan-Mar 2021 +3.2%
    Apr-Jun 2021 +6.8%
    Jul-Sep 2021 +3.1%
    Oct-Dec 2021 +0.2%
    Jan-Mar 2022 +1.4%
    Apr-Jun 2022 -2.4%
    Jul-Sep 2022 -2.7%
    Oct-Dec 2022 -2.8%
    Jan-Mar 2023 -2.6%
    Apr-Jun 2023 +0.7%
    Jul-Sep 2023 +1.4%
    Oct-Dec 2023 +1.4%

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/timeseries/a3ww/lms

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/latest

    There's also the extra handouts people received, the £400 energy subsidy and the month's council tax rebate plus much more for the poor and oldies.
    "the month's council tax rebate" Eh ?
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,037

    PJH said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Inflation stays at 4%

    *brushes fingernails quietly*

    Next up, did the UK really suffer a technical recession in Q4 and Q1? I think not.
    It's easy to get carried away by the technical details and for the government to pop the champagne and slap each other on the back for a job well done in lowering inflation. Out in the real world, mortgages are as costly and as unaffordable as they've ever been and hundreds of thousands of mortgage holders have still yet to remortgage onto much higher rates. Energy bills are still crippling, food still going up. Mortgage arrears are at their highest rate since the GFC. Business insolvency ditto. It's grim out there
    The inflation figures don't lie, but they ain't telling the truth either.
    Oh I agree with all of that. Real wages are rising by more than 2% a year on average now but that does not come close to offsetting the additional costs borne by those with mortgages in particular. Many people are struggling and 4% inflation is not great. Some lenders are edging their mortgage offers back up again now on the assumption that base rates are going to fall more slowly than once thought. That is very much the way I see it, particularly if I am right that a technical recession is avoided.
    Don't forget that about a year ago, inflation was 11% and pay rises were at best 5-6%; so if you're working for a typical employer such as mine this year offering about 1-2% above inflation it will take about another 3 years or so to close that gap before people start feeling better than slightly less badly off compared to before.
    In reality people were on average about 3% worse off for a year and nearly half of that has already been recovered.

    But what is forgotten is how much real pay increased in 2021.

    From the ONS:

    Total pay (real):

    Jan-Mar 2020 +0.5%
    Apr-Jun 2020 -1.8%
    Jul-Sep 2020 +0.7%
    Oct-Dec 2020 +3.8%
    Jan-Mar 2021 +3.2%
    Apr-Jun 2021 +6.8%
    Jul-Sep 2021 +3.1%
    Oct-Dec 2021 +0.2%
    Jan-Mar 2022 +1.4%
    Apr-Jun 2022 -2.4%
    Jul-Sep 2022 -2.7%
    Oct-Dec 2022 -2.8%
    Jan-Mar 2023 -2.6%
    Apr-Jun 2023 +0.7%
    Jul-Sep 2023 +1.4%
    Oct-Dec 2023 +1.4%

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/timeseries/a3ww/lms

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/latest

    There's also the extra handouts people received, the £400 energy subsidy and the month's council tax rebate plus much more for the poor and oldies.
    How much of that pay inflation gets through to take home pay for a family renting and on universal credit? Posters on here have calculated marginal tax rates of 70%+ at that end of the spectrum and there are occassional instances where extra pay equals less income.

    Much of the pay inflation will have been at and just above the NMW rates by design, a lot of the rest is still at the elite level. Real median earnings are rising much slower than real average earnings.

    https://ifs.org.uk/articles/pay-growth-londons-top-earners-has-driven-geographical-inequality-mean-earnings#:~:text=Strong pay growth in finance,have seen little pay growth.

    So low earners see most of the rises taken up by the benefits traps and middle earners are seeing smaller rises combined with being most likely to be hit on mortgage rates or private sector rent increases.

  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,088

    TOPPING said:

    DESPITE THE PROVOCATION FROM eg MEXICANPETE

    You’re sounding and acting like Leon.

    Spoiler: That’s not a good thing.
    Yes it is. Tho he lacks the amazing, uncanny foresight
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,826

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Want an end to civilian casualties? Then there's a simple solution: Hamas lays down their arms unconditionally and releases the hostages. Otherwise the war continues.

    Exactly what David Cameron (pbuh) said yesterday in the HoL.

    And we know that DC can say or do no wrong.
    But ever civilian casualty recruits more people into Hamas rather than sitting on the sidelines.

    Even before you see the complete lack of hope that Israel is offering everyone in Gaza which again will be pushing people towards actively supporting Hamas because they’ve got nothing else so they may as well.

    Indeed. Nor do they offer any hope to Palestinians in the West Bank either. Nor that much to Arab Israelis.

    The conflict in Northern Ireland was ended because the conditions of the Catholic population were improved. The conflict in the Basque country was ended because the conditions of the Basque population were improved. And so on.
    Israeli actions in the last couple of decades have not achieved much in terms of building peace. The choices made by Israel have contributed to the prospects of a peace settlement deteriorating.

    However, the circumstances immediately following the massacre of more than a thousand Israelis, and the taking of many hundreds of hostages, are not particularly ideal for a change in policy towards peace-building.

    The war against Hamas has to be won first, and then Israel will have another opportunity to build peace. Perhaps they will take it this time. Perhaps not.

    I've never felt at all Jewish in the present, though it's part of the family history I've always been aware of, but it makes me feel incredibly vulnerable when so many people advocate effective impunity for the people responsible for what must have been the most successful attempt to exterminate Jews since 1945.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,716
    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Good morning

    Labour down 5% on this poll

    Tomorrow's by elections should show if this is happening or if it is all smoke and mirrors

    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1757665864696971522?t=zfbTQL3aas6Qcnfmr03h_w&s=19

    Most of that poll was done before Ali-gate.
    Maybe a reaction to the green u-turn . Certainly it’s been a bad week for Labour and not what you want in the run up to the by-elections .

    Perhaps the postal votes might help them seeing as most would have been in before things went south.
    Sky reporting a third labour politician has been spoken to

    https://news.sky.com/story/third-labour-politician-spoken-to-over-meeting-at-centre-of-antisemitism-row-13071272
    It wouldn't surprise me if dozens of Labur MPs have said stuff like this. A potential catastrophe
    Someone yesterday ( @theProle ?) likened the current situation to a scene from "the Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe" in which the White Queen – looking superficially presentable – is seen to be backed by an absolute army of ogres, misfits and crazies. Admittedly I have neither read the book nor seen the film so the analogy was slightly lost on me. But still, I can picture it. And the number of scary luncatics in the ranks behind Starmer is starting to look quite scary.
    Of course, the Tories also have a cast of peculiars too. But their misfits are of a more traditional bent – the not-really-competent-of-effective types, the rules-don’t-really-apply-to-me types. Whereas a good half of the Labour Party appear to be living in a weird teenage twitter rabbithole which has driven them genuinely insane.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,339
    Leon said:

    Why did no one tell me about the Apple Series FOR ALL MANKIND

    It's fantastic. Admittedly, I have only watched one episode, but it is brilliant

    The bait and switch on the moon landing is GENIUS

    I'm pretty sure I've mentioned it more than once.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,088
    WTF

    Apparently in kids' footy now there is a thing called the "Brexit Tackle", it seems to be quite brutal

    Some kids do it while shouting "Brexit means Brexit"

    Is this just fantasy? An escape from reality?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/brexit-tackle-politics-children-football
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,351
    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Good morning

    Labour down 5% on this poll

    Tomorrow's by elections should show if this is happening or if it is all smoke and mirrors

    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1757665864696971522?t=zfbTQL3aas6Qcnfmr03h_w&s=19

    Most of that poll was done before Ali-gate.
    Maybe a reaction to the green u-turn . Certainly it’s been a bad week for Labour and not what you want in the run up to the by-elections .

    Perhaps the postal votes might help them seeing as most would have been in before things went south.
    Sky reporting a third labour politician has been spoken to

    https://news.sky.com/story/third-labour-politician-spoken-to-over-meeting-at-centre-of-antisemitism-row-13071272
    It wouldn't surprise me if dozens of Labur MPs have said stuff like this. A potential catastrophe
    That guy appears to have merely heard rather than spoken, but can Sir Keir afford to show any mercy?
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,826

    PJH said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Inflation stays at 4%

    *brushes fingernails quietly*

    Next up, did the UK really suffer a technical recession in Q4 and Q1? I think not.
    It's easy to get carried away by the technical details and for the government to pop the champagne and slap each other on the back for a job well done in lowering inflation. Out in the real world, mortgages are as costly and as unaffordable as they've ever been and hundreds of thousands of mortgage holders have still yet to remortgage onto much higher rates. Energy bills are still crippling, food still going up. Mortgage arrears are at their highest rate since the GFC. Business insolvency ditto. It's grim out there
    The inflation figures don't lie, but they ain't telling the truth either.
    Oh I agree with all of that. Real wages are rising by more than 2% a year on average now but that does not come close to offsetting the additional costs borne by those with mortgages in particular. Many people are struggling and 4% inflation is not great. Some lenders are edging their mortgage offers back up again now on the assumption that base rates are going to fall more slowly than once thought. That is very much the way I see it, particularly if I am right that a technical recession is avoided.
    Don't forget that about a year ago, inflation was 11% and pay rises were at best 5-6%; so if you're working for a typical employer such as mine this year offering about 1-2% above inflation it will take about another 3 years or so to close that gap before people start feeling better than slightly less badly off compared to before.
    In reality people were on average about 3% worse off for a year and nearly half of that has already been recovered.

    But what is forgotten is how much real pay increased in 2021.

    From the ONS:

    Total pay (real):

    Jan-Mar 2020 +0.5%
    Apr-Jun 2020 -1.8%
    Jul-Sep 2020 +0.7%
    Oct-Dec 2020 +3.8%
    Jan-Mar 2021 +3.2%
    Apr-Jun 2021 +6.8%
    Jul-Sep 2021 +3.1%
    Oct-Dec 2021 +0.2%
    Jan-Mar 2022 +1.4%
    Apr-Jun 2022 -2.4%
    Jul-Sep 2022 -2.7%
    Oct-Dec 2022 -2.8%
    Jan-Mar 2023 -2.6%
    Apr-Jun 2023 +0.7%
    Jul-Sep 2023 +1.4%
    Oct-Dec 2023 +1.4%

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/timeseries/a3ww/lms

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/latest

    There's also the extra handouts people received, the £400 energy subsidy and the month's council tax rebate plus much more for the poor and oldies.
    How much of that pay inflation gets through to take home pay for a family renting and on universal credit? Posters on here have calculated marginal tax rates of 70%+ at that end of the spectrum and there are occassional instances where extra pay equals less income.

    Much of the pay inflation will have been at and just above the NMW rates by design, a lot of the rest is still at the elite level. Real median earnings are rising much slower than real average earnings.

    https://ifs.org.uk/articles/pay-growth-londons-top-earners-has-driven-geographical-inequality-mean-earnings#:~:text=Strong pay growth in finance,have seen little pay growth.

    So low earners see most of the rises taken up by the benefits traps and middle earners are seeing smaller rises combined with being most likely to be hit on mortgage rates or private sector rent increases.

    The other important aspect is the effect of fiscal drag on making people's real household disposable income lower than a simple look at headline wage increases would suggest.

    One of the toxic effects of the government's current political messaging is that, although everyone suffers from fiscal drag, people will think that they are being singled out - if the stats show average wages rising, but their pay doesn't go as far each month, then the problem is unfair distribution.

    But the real problem is a lack of money overall, because of required tax increases to balance the budget. "We're all in it together" works a lot better than stealth tax increases making everyone worse off, but thinking that it's only them suffering.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,248
    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Want an end to civilian casualties? Then there's a simple solution: Hamas lays down their arms unconditionally and releases the hostages. Otherwise the war continues.

    Exactly what David Cameron (pbuh) said yesterday in the HoL.

    And we know that DC can say or do no wrong.
    But ever civilian casualty recruits more people into Hamas rather than sitting on the sidelines.

    Even before you see the complete lack of hope that Israel is offering everyone in Gaza which again will be pushing people towards actively supporting Hamas because they’ve got nothing else so they may as well.

    I mean Hamas as we all agree is responsible for this. Is Israel overdoing it now? You say yes I say tomato. But as @Stark_Dawning all those weeks ago noted, this is precisely what Hamas wanted. Provoke Israel and reap the rewards out of the resulting destruction.

    Everyone says oh but people in Gaza were too young to vote for Hamas 17 years ago so they are innocent. But would you really join a cult whose wholly unnecessary actions are responsible for thousands of deaths of your fellow countrymen and which has said it will do it all again given half a chance? If so good luck to them all.

    And that's it folks - stuff to do. Enjoy.
    So you put words in my mouth and then run away before I get a chance to reply - good try but I think we can all see you for what you are
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,062
    Good morning, everyone.

    Good luck, Mr. Mark.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,355

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Good morning

    Labour down 5% on this poll

    Tomorrow's by elections should show if this is happening or if it is all smoke and mirrors

    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1757665864696971522?t=zfbTQL3aas6Qcnfmr03h_w&s=19

    Most of that poll was done before Ali-gate.
    Maybe a reaction to the green u-turn . Certainly it’s been a bad week for Labour and not what you want in the run up to the by-elections .

    Perhaps the postal votes might help them seeing as most would have been in before things went south.
    Sky reporting a third labour politician has been spoken to

    https://news.sky.com/story/third-labour-politician-spoken-to-over-meeting-at-centre-of-antisemitism-row-13071272
    It wouldn't surprise me if dozens of Labur MPs have said stuff like this. A potential catastrophe
    That guy appears to have merely heard rather than spoken, but can Sir Keir afford to show any mercy?
    'Healey paid tribute to the Mail newspapers, which exposed the remarks at the meeting after being passed a recording.'

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/14/starmer-councillors-meeting-israel-comments-azhar-ali-rochdale-labour
  • Options
    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,781
    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Good morning

    Labour down 5% on this poll

    Tomorrow's by elections should show if this is happening or if it is all smoke and mirrors

    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1757665864696971522?t=zfbTQL3aas6Qcnfmr03h_w&s=19

    Most of that poll was done before Ali-gate.
    Maybe a reaction to the green u-turn . Certainly it’s been a bad week for Labour and not what you want in the run up to the by-elections .

    Perhaps the postal votes might help them seeing as most would have been in before things went south.
    Sky reporting a third labour politician has been spoken to

    https://news.sky.com/story/third-labour-politician-spoken-to-over-meeting-at-centre-of-antisemitism-row-13071272
    It wouldn't surprise me if dozens of Labur MPs have said stuff like this. A potential catastrophe
    I was wondering that. If I was Sunak I would call the General Election now. If Labour haven't vetted their candidates properly and don't get any more time to do so, it could be a major problem for them in the heat of a General Election. He should roll the dice.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,344
    Leon said:

    Why did no one tell me about the Apple Series FOR ALL MANKIND

    It's fantastic. Admittedly, I have only watched one episode, but it is brilliant

    The bait and switch on the moon landing is GENIUS

    I've seen 3 episodes, and although it's well done, I'm beginning to suspect that after an intriguing opening it's descending into a slow-moving soap opera that they will milk for as many episodes as they can in the typical way. So I'm probably not going any further unless I hear different.

    If you're on Apple + I can highly recommend Shrinking featuring a great turn by Harrison Ford as a grumpy old man.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,650
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Want an end to civilian casualties? Then there's a simple solution: Hamas lays down their arms unconditionally and releases the hostages. Otherwise the war continues.

    Exactly what David Cameron (pbuh) said yesterday in the HoL.

    And we know that DC can say or do no wrong.
    But ever civilian casualty recruits more people into Hamas rather than sitting on the sidelines.

    Even before you see the complete lack of hope that Israel is offering everyone in Gaza which again will be pushing people towards actively supporting Hamas because they’ve got nothing else so they may as well.

    I mean Hamas as we all agree is responsible for this. Is Israel overdoing it now? You say yes I say tomato. But as @Stark_Dawning all those weeks ago noted, this is precisely what Hamas wanted. Provoke Israel and reap the rewards out of the resulting destruction.

    Everyone says oh but people in Gaza were too young to vote for Hamas 17 years ago so they are innocent. But would you really join a cult whose wholly unnecessary actions are responsible for thousands of deaths of your fellow countrymen and which has said it will do it all again given half a chance? If so good luck to them all.

    And that's it folks - stuff to do. Enjoy.
    So you put words in my mouth and then run away before I get a chance to reply - good try but I think we can all see you for what you are
    Non I/P related post: twat.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,629

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Good morning

    Labour down 5% on this poll

    Tomorrow's by elections should show if this is happening or if it is all smoke and mirrors

    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1757665864696971522?t=zfbTQL3aas6Qcnfmr03h_w&s=19

    Most of that poll was done before Ali-gate.
    Maybe a reaction to the green u-turn . Certainly it’s been a bad week for Labour and not what you want in the run up to the by-elections .

    Perhaps the postal votes might help them seeing as most would have been in before things went south.
    Sky reporting a third labour politician has been spoken to

    https://news.sky.com/story/third-labour-politician-spoken-to-over-meeting-at-centre-of-antisemitism-row-13071272
    It wouldn't surprise me if dozens of Labur MPs have said stuff like this. A potential catastrophe
    That guy appears to have merely heard rather than spoken, but can Sir Keir afford to show any mercy?
    "I was present at that wreath-laying anti-Semitic rant party, I don't think I was actually involved in it"?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,088
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Why did no one tell me about the Apple Series FOR ALL MANKIND

    It's fantastic. Admittedly, I have only watched one episode, but it is brilliant

    The bait and switch on the moon landing is GENIUS

    I've seen 3 episodes, and although it's well done, I'm beginning to suspect that after an intriguing opening it's descending into a slow-moving soap opera that they will milk for as many episodes as they can in the typical way. So I'm probably not going any further unless I hear different.

    If you're on Apple + I can highly recommend Shrinking featuring a great turn by Harrison Ford as a grumpy old man.
    Ach. dammit

    That is my big fear

    So many series now do this. Start with great promise, then fade away HORRIBLY

    I have had to abandon three dramas in recent months for this reason. GRRR
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,037

    PJH said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Inflation stays at 4%

    *brushes fingernails quietly*

    Next up, did the UK really suffer a technical recession in Q4 and Q1? I think not.
    It's easy to get carried away by the technical details and for the government to pop the champagne and slap each other on the back for a job well done in lowering inflation. Out in the real world, mortgages are as costly and as unaffordable as they've ever been and hundreds of thousands of mortgage holders have still yet to remortgage onto much higher rates. Energy bills are still crippling, food still going up. Mortgage arrears are at their highest rate since the GFC. Business insolvency ditto. It's grim out there
    The inflation figures don't lie, but they ain't telling the truth either.
    Oh I agree with all of that. Real wages are rising by more than 2% a year on average now but that does not come close to offsetting the additional costs borne by those with mortgages in particular. Many people are struggling and 4% inflation is not great. Some lenders are edging their mortgage offers back up again now on the assumption that base rates are going to fall more slowly than once thought. That is very much the way I see it, particularly if I am right that a technical recession is avoided.
    Don't forget that about a year ago, inflation was 11% and pay rises were at best 5-6%; so if you're working for a typical employer such as mine this year offering about 1-2% above inflation it will take about another 3 years or so to close that gap before people start feeling better than slightly less badly off compared to before.
    In reality people were on average about 3% worse off for a year and nearly half of that has already been recovered.

    But what is forgotten is how much real pay increased in 2021.

    From the ONS:

    Total pay (real):

    Jan-Mar 2020 +0.5%
    Apr-Jun 2020 -1.8%
    Jul-Sep 2020 +0.7%
    Oct-Dec 2020 +3.8%
    Jan-Mar 2021 +3.2%
    Apr-Jun 2021 +6.8%
    Jul-Sep 2021 +3.1%
    Oct-Dec 2021 +0.2%
    Jan-Mar 2022 +1.4%
    Apr-Jun 2022 -2.4%
    Jul-Sep 2022 -2.7%
    Oct-Dec 2022 -2.8%
    Jan-Mar 2023 -2.6%
    Apr-Jun 2023 +0.7%
    Jul-Sep 2023 +1.4%
    Oct-Dec 2023 +1.4%

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/timeseries/a3ww/lms

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/latest

    There's also the extra handouts people received, the £400 energy subsidy and the month's council tax rebate plus much more for the poor and oldies.
    How much of that pay inflation gets through to take home pay for a family renting and on universal credit? Posters on here have calculated marginal tax rates of 70%+ at that end of the spectrum and there are occassional instances where extra pay equals less income.

    Much of the pay inflation will have been at and just above the NMW rates by design, a lot of the rest is still at the elite level. Real median earnings are rising much slower than real average earnings.

    https://ifs.org.uk/articles/pay-growth-londons-top-earners-has-driven-geographical-inequality-mean-earnings#:~:text=Strong pay growth in finance,have seen little pay growth.

    So low earners see most of the rises taken up by the benefits traps and middle earners are seeing smaller rises combined with being most likely to be hit on mortgage rates or private sector rent increases.

    The other important aspect is the effect of fiscal drag on making people's real household disposable income lower than a simple look at headline wage increases would suggest.

    One of the toxic effects of the government's current political messaging is that, although everyone suffers from fiscal drag, people will think that they are being singled out - if the stats show average wages rising, but their pay doesn't go as far each month, then the problem is unfair distribution.

    But the real problem is a lack of money overall, because of required tax increases to balance the budget. "We're all in it together" works a lot better than stealth tax increases making everyone worse off, but thinking that it's only them suffering.
    Don't get me started on the jarring from Rishi's sunny optimistic messaging on the economy, wages, inflation and tax.....it is why I suspect he will need to be replaced before the election.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,521
    Leon said:

    WTF

    Apparently in kids' footy now there is a thing called the "Brexit Tackle", it seems to be quite brutal

    Some kids do it while shouting "Brexit means Brexit"

    Is this just fantasy? An escape from reality?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/brexit-tackle-politics-children-football

    Because it's more painful than childbirth ?

    An "expression of empty-headed belligerence" seems a reasonable explanation.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,248
    stjohn said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Good morning

    Labour down 5% on this poll

    Tomorrow's by elections should show if this is happening or if it is all smoke and mirrors

    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1757665864696971522?t=zfbTQL3aas6Qcnfmr03h_w&s=19

    Most of that poll was done before Ali-gate.
    Maybe a reaction to the green u-turn . Certainly it’s been a bad week for Labour and not what you want in the run up to the by-elections .

    Perhaps the postal votes might help them seeing as most would have been in before things went south.
    Sky reporting a third labour politician has been spoken to

    https://news.sky.com/story/third-labour-politician-spoken-to-over-meeting-at-centre-of-antisemitism-row-13071272
    It wouldn't surprise me if dozens of Labur MPs have said stuff like this. A potential catastrophe
    I was wondering that. If I was Sunak I would call the General Election now. If Labour haven't vetted their candidates properly and don't get any more time to do so, it could be a major problem for them in the heat of a General Election. He should roll the dice.
    You know the conspiracy theory about Israel that kicked this all off. Well I’ve got one about the Labour Party orchestrating a way of creating an internal “selection issue” to ensure the general election was in May and not January 2025
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,037
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    WTF

    Apparently in kids' footy now there is a thing called the "Brexit Tackle", it seems to be quite brutal

    Some kids do it while shouting "Brexit means Brexit"

    Is this just fantasy? An escape from reality?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/brexit-tackle-politics-children-football

    Because it's more painful than childbirth ?

    An "expression of empty-headed belligerence" seems a reasonable explanation.
    Used to be known as a "reducer". I can see some similarities there with Brexit too.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,251
    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Why did no one tell me about the Apple Series FOR ALL MANKIND

    It's fantastic. Admittedly, I have only watched one episode, but it is brilliant

    The bait and switch on the moon landing is GENIUS

    I've seen 3 episodes, and although it's well done, I'm beginning to suspect that after an intriguing opening it's descending into a slow-moving soap opera that they will milk for as many episodes as they can in the typical way. So I'm probably not going any further unless I hear different.

    If you're on Apple + I can highly recommend Shrinking featuring a great turn by Harrison Ford as a grumpy old man.
    Ach. dammit

    That is my big fear

    So many series now do this. Start with great promise, then fade away HORRIBLY

    I have had to abandon three dramas in recent months for this reason. GRRR
    Have you watched “Winning Time, the rise of the Lakers dynasty”. I am quite hooked despite having absolutely no love for basketball whatsoever but it’s a great evocation of the early 80’s with a maverick chap who buys the L.A. Lakers and helps build them to a machine with the likes of Magic Johnson etc. and introducing names that became household to even non basketball fans.

    Really interestingly filmed with normal filming as well as effect to make it look like 80s quality tv or super 8 type film.

    Suitably decadent and funny but also interesting on the race issues (it’s not woke) at play at the time. And I never knew Paula Abdul was plucked from obscurity as a dancer to develop the Lakers Girls who turned cheerleading on its head.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,037
    eek said:

    stjohn said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Good morning

    Labour down 5% on this poll

    Tomorrow's by elections should show if this is happening or if it is all smoke and mirrors

    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1757665864696971522?t=zfbTQL3aas6Qcnfmr03h_w&s=19

    Most of that poll was done before Ali-gate.
    Maybe a reaction to the green u-turn . Certainly it’s been a bad week for Labour and not what you want in the run up to the by-elections .

    Perhaps the postal votes might help them seeing as most would have been in before things went south.
    Sky reporting a third labour politician has been spoken to

    https://news.sky.com/story/third-labour-politician-spoken-to-over-meeting-at-centre-of-antisemitism-row-13071272
    It wouldn't surprise me if dozens of Labur MPs have said stuff like this. A potential catastrophe
    I was wondering that. If I was Sunak I would call the General Election now. If Labour haven't vetted their candidates properly and don't get any more time to do so, it could be a major problem for them in the heat of a General Election. He should roll the dice.
    You know the conspiracy theory about Israel that kicked this all off. Well I’ve got one about the Labour Party orchestrating a way of creating an internal “selection issue” to ensure the general election was in May and not January 2025
    I hear they were under instruction from Taylor Swift to time it as close to the FA Cup final as possible.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,339
    rkrkrk said:

    My theory, for which I have little evidence (and which coincides with what i wish to be true), is that Dems don't want Biden to run again if asked in polls. He is too old etc.

    But when it comes to an actual election, they are still Dems, so of course they will vote for Biden/Dems.

    That might be true. As Professor Sir John Curtice once said (and I was in the room when he said it, nah-nah-nah-nah-nah), polls between elections are more a show of support for the policies of the incumbent. They become a serious assessment of electoral intent when the election is called. They start to give a picture about a year out but only firm up around three months out (or when the election is called), and only become solid in the last week. It's possible for a surprise on the day, but IMHO not often.

    This makes political betting bloody difficult... :(
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,062
    Mr. Leon, reminds me a little of Lost.

    There's a point where mysterious premise just becomes intriguing wrapping paper, beneath which is more wrapping paper, and so on, until all the paper is unwrapped and there's no bloody present.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,248
    edited February 14
    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Want an end to civilian casualties? Then there's a simple solution: Hamas lays down their arms unconditionally and releases the hostages. Otherwise the war continues.

    Exactly what David Cameron (pbuh) said yesterday in the HoL.

    And we know that DC can say or do no wrong.
    But ever civilian casualty recruits more people into Hamas rather than sitting on the sidelines.

    Even before you see the complete lack of hope that Israel is offering everyone in Gaza which again will be pushing people towards actively supporting Hamas because they’ve got nothing else so they may as well.

    I mean Hamas as we all agree is responsible for this. Is Israel overdoing it now? You say yes I say tomato. But as @Stark_Dawning all those weeks ago noted, this is precisely what Hamas wanted. Provoke Israel and reap the rewards out of the resulting destruction.

    Everyone says oh but people in Gaza were too young to vote for Hamas 17 years ago so they are innocent. But would you really join a cult whose wholly unnecessary actions are responsible for thousands of deaths of your fellow countrymen and which has said it will do it all again given half a chance? If so good luck to them all.

    And that's it folks - stuff to do. Enjoy.
    So you put words in my mouth and then run away before I get a chance to reply - good try but I think we can all see you for what you are
    Non I/P related post: twat.
    Hey you put words and a view against my post that aren’t accurate and then stated you were disappearing away - I can only assume that it’s you calling yourself a twat in self reflection

    Reality is the story of Gaza is the same as bondegezou pointed out in his post - the only way to remove a problem is to improve the economic conditions to the extent the issue disappears as the people desiring violence are sidelined
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,144
    So some want the councilors suspended even if they said bugger all about Israel.

    This is just ridiculous.
  • Options

    PJH said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Inflation stays at 4%

    *brushes fingernails quietly*

    Next up, did the UK really suffer a technical recession in Q4 and Q1? I think not.
    It's easy to get carried away by the technical details and for the government to pop the champagne and slap each other on the back for a job well done in lowering inflation. Out in the real world, mortgages are as costly and as unaffordable as they've ever been and hundreds of thousands of mortgage holders have still yet to remortgage onto much higher rates. Energy bills are still crippling, food still going up. Mortgage arrears are at their highest rate since the GFC. Business insolvency ditto. It's grim out there
    The inflation figures don't lie, but they ain't telling the truth either.
    Oh I agree with all of that. Real wages are rising by more than 2% a year on average now but that does not come close to offsetting the additional costs borne by those with mortgages in particular. Many people are struggling and 4% inflation is not great. Some lenders are edging their mortgage offers back up again now on the assumption that base rates are going to fall more slowly than once thought. That is very much the way I see it, particularly if I am right that a technical recession is avoided.
    Don't forget that about a year ago, inflation was 11% and pay rises were at best 5-6%; so if you're working for a typical employer such as mine this year offering about 1-2% above inflation it will take about another 3 years or so to close that gap before people start feeling better than slightly less badly off compared to before.
    In reality people were on average about 3% worse off for a year and nearly half of that has already been recovered.

    But what is forgotten is how much real pay increased in 2021.

    From the ONS:

    Total pay (real):

    Jan-Mar 2020 +0.5%
    Apr-Jun 2020 -1.8%
    Jul-Sep 2020 +0.7%
    Oct-Dec 2020 +3.8%
    Jan-Mar 2021 +3.2%
    Apr-Jun 2021 +6.8%
    Jul-Sep 2021 +3.1%
    Oct-Dec 2021 +0.2%
    Jan-Mar 2022 +1.4%
    Apr-Jun 2022 -2.4%
    Jul-Sep 2022 -2.7%
    Oct-Dec 2022 -2.8%
    Jan-Mar 2023 -2.6%
    Apr-Jun 2023 +0.7%
    Jul-Sep 2023 +1.4%
    Oct-Dec 2023 +1.4%

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/timeseries/a3ww/lms

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/latest

    There's also the extra handouts people received, the £400 energy subsidy and the month's council tax rebate plus much more for the poor and oldies.
    How much of that pay inflation gets through to take home pay for a family renting and on universal credit? Posters on here have calculated marginal tax rates of 70%+ at that end of the spectrum and there are occassional instances where extra pay equals less income.

    Much of the pay inflation will have been at and just above the NMW rates by design, a lot of the rest is still at the elite level. Real median earnings are rising much slower than real average earnings.

    https://ifs.org.uk/articles/pay-growth-londons-top-earners-has-driven-geographical-inequality-mean-earnings#:~:text=Strong pay growth in finance,have seen little pay growth.

    So low earners see most of the rises taken up by the benefits traps and middle earners are seeing smaller rises combined with being most likely to be hit on mortgage rates or private sector rent increases.

    Sure those are average numbers and everyone's an individual.

    And there's many millions who have done worse than the average.

    But there's also many millions who have done better than the average.

    And the average itself is positive despite four years of economic turmoil.

    There seems to be a widespread and bizarre insistence that everyone is worse off and heading to the poor house.

    And that's a denial of reality equal to insisting that everyone is doing great.

    From apprentices on over £25k to tradesmen earning £85k to GenXs discussing their retirement plans (I've heard 58, 60, 63 mentioned recently) to oldies booking their cruises there are lots of people who have never been as well off.

  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,339
    edited February 14

    ...I've never felt at all Jewish in the present...

    How about when you were in the past or future? And how long have you been time-travelling? :):):):)

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,426
    Some good news for the Democrats in winning NY-03 which is a swing seat.

    However too much cannot be read into it given neither Trump nor Biden were on the ballot
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,290
    Leon said:

    WTF

    Apparently in kids' footy now there is a thing called the "Brexit Tackle", it seems to be quite brutal

    Some kids do it while shouting "Brexit means Brexit"

    Is this just fantasy? An escape from reality?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/brexit-tackle-politics-children-football

    Get with the programme. I told you all about this on here about two years ago (my son plays U15 football). The Brexit tackle is a kind of mindlessly aggressive, barely legal tackle, harking back to traditional ugly but effective English football in contrast to Continental skill and sophistication. I think it is a satirical content by the young on the belligerent stupidity of the Brexit vote.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,344
    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Why did no one tell me about the Apple Series FOR ALL MANKIND

    It's fantastic. Admittedly, I have only watched one episode, but it is brilliant

    The bait and switch on the moon landing is GENIUS

    I've seen 3 episodes, and although it's well done, I'm beginning to suspect that after an intriguing opening it's descending into a slow-moving soap opera that they will milk for as many episodes as they can in the typical way. So I'm probably not going any further unless I hear different.

    If you're on Apple + I can highly recommend Shrinking featuring a great turn by Harrison Ford as a grumpy old man.
    Ach. dammit

    That is my big fear

    So many series now do this. Start with great promise, then fade away HORRIBLY

    I have had to abandon three dramas in recent months for this reason. GRRR
    Yes, it's very annoying. And sometimes the opposite happens - eg I was still enjoying The Path after 3 seasons (though it had got a bit slushy), and they didn't make any more despite the story clearly being unfinished.

    I would say For All Mankind is still entertaining after 3 episodes but 7 seasons are planned, and I don't want to get hooked into having to know what happens because it's too much of a time commitment for me...
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,650
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Want an end to civilian casualties? Then there's a simple solution: Hamas lays down their arms unconditionally and releases the hostages. Otherwise the war continues.

    Exactly what David Cameron (pbuh) said yesterday in the HoL.

    And we know that DC can say or do no wrong.
    But ever civilian casualty recruits more people into Hamas rather than sitting on the sidelines.

    Even before you see the complete lack of hope that Israel is offering everyone in Gaza which again will be pushing people towards actively supporting Hamas because they’ve got nothing else so they may as well.

    I mean Hamas as we all agree is responsible for this. Is Israel overdoing it now? You say yes I say tomato. But as @Stark_Dawning all those weeks ago noted, this is precisely what Hamas wanted. Provoke Israel and reap the rewards out of the resulting destruction.

    Everyone says oh but people in Gaza were too young to vote for Hamas 17 years ago so they are innocent. But would you really join a cult whose wholly unnecessary actions are responsible for thousands of deaths of your fellow countrymen and which has said it will do it all again given half a chance? If so good luck to them all.

    And that's it folks - stuff to do. Enjoy.
    So you put words in my mouth and then run away before I get a chance to reply - good try but I think we can all see you for what you are
    Non I/P related post: twat.
    Hey you put words and a view against my post that aren’t accurate and then stated you were disappearing away - I can only assume that it’s you calling yourself a twat in self reflection

    Reality is the story of Gaza is the same as bondegezou pointed out in his post - the only way to remove a problem is to improve the economic conditions to the extent the issue disappears as the people desiring violence are sidelined
    Oh god touchy much?

    What words did I put in your mouth? I just made a general point in relation to Gaza. When I said "you" I meant in general terms. Jeez Louise. So in fact you don't think that Israel is overdoing it?

    And no it was not calling myself a twat if that helps.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,037

    PJH said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Inflation stays at 4%

    *brushes fingernails quietly*

    Next up, did the UK really suffer a technical recession in Q4 and Q1? I think not.
    It's easy to get carried away by the technical details and for the government to pop the champagne and slap each other on the back for a job well done in lowering inflation. Out in the real world, mortgages are as costly and as unaffordable as they've ever been and hundreds of thousands of mortgage holders have still yet to remortgage onto much higher rates. Energy bills are still crippling, food still going up. Mortgage arrears are at their highest rate since the GFC. Business insolvency ditto. It's grim out there
    The inflation figures don't lie, but they ain't telling the truth either.
    Oh I agree with all of that. Real wages are rising by more than 2% a year on average now but that does not come close to offsetting the additional costs borne by those with mortgages in particular. Many people are struggling and 4% inflation is not great. Some lenders are edging their mortgage offers back up again now on the assumption that base rates are going to fall more slowly than once thought. That is very much the way I see it, particularly if I am right that a technical recession is avoided.
    Don't forget that about a year ago, inflation was 11% and pay rises were at best 5-6%; so if you're working for a typical employer such as mine this year offering about 1-2% above inflation it will take about another 3 years or so to close that gap before people start feeling better than slightly less badly off compared to before.
    In reality people were on average about 3% worse off for a year and nearly half of that has already been recovered.

    But what is forgotten is how much real pay increased in 2021.

    From the ONS:

    Total pay (real):

    Jan-Mar 2020 +0.5%
    Apr-Jun 2020 -1.8%
    Jul-Sep 2020 +0.7%
    Oct-Dec 2020 +3.8%
    Jan-Mar 2021 +3.2%
    Apr-Jun 2021 +6.8%
    Jul-Sep 2021 +3.1%
    Oct-Dec 2021 +0.2%
    Jan-Mar 2022 +1.4%
    Apr-Jun 2022 -2.4%
    Jul-Sep 2022 -2.7%
    Oct-Dec 2022 -2.8%
    Jan-Mar 2023 -2.6%
    Apr-Jun 2023 +0.7%
    Jul-Sep 2023 +1.4%
    Oct-Dec 2023 +1.4%

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/timeseries/a3ww/lms

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/latest

    There's also the extra handouts people received, the £400 energy subsidy and the month's council tax rebate plus much more for the poor and oldies.
    How much of that pay inflation gets through to take home pay for a family renting and on universal credit? Posters on here have calculated marginal tax rates of 70%+ at that end of the spectrum and there are occassional instances where extra pay equals less income.

    Much of the pay inflation will have been at and just above the NMW rates by design, a lot of the rest is still at the elite level. Real median earnings are rising much slower than real average earnings.

    https://ifs.org.uk/articles/pay-growth-londons-top-earners-has-driven-geographical-inequality-mean-earnings#:~:text=Strong pay growth in finance,have seen little pay growth.

    So low earners see most of the rises taken up by the benefits traps and middle earners are seeing smaller rises combined with being most likely to be hit on mortgage rates or private sector rent increases.

    Sure those are average numbers and everyone's an individual.

    And there's many millions who have done worse than the average.

    But there's also many millions who have done better than the average.

    And the average itself is positive despite four years of economic turmoil.

    There seems to be a widespread and bizarre insistence that everyone is worse off and heading to the poor house.

    And that's a denial of reality equal to insisting that everyone is doing great.

    From apprentices on over £25k to tradesmen earning £85k to GenXs discussing their retirement plans (I've heard 58, 60, 63 mentioned recently) to oldies booking their cruises there are lots of people who have never been as well off.

    Sure there are a wide range of individual circumstances.

    Electorally though I suspect what tends to happen is:

    People who are better off than expected vote for the party they most identify with.
    People who are worse off than expected vote for the opposition.

    So aggregate bad news is not balanced out electorally by the wide range of circumstances.
  • Options
    nico679 said:

    So some want the councilors suspended even if they said bugger all about Israel.

    This is just ridiculous.

    Call me a grumpy old cynic, but I don't think that all of the recent outrage stems from a pure desire to see the end of the evil of antisemitism.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,088

    Leon said:

    WTF

    Apparently in kids' footy now there is a thing called the "Brexit Tackle", it seems to be quite brutal

    Some kids do it while shouting "Brexit means Brexit"

    Is this just fantasy? An escape from reality?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/brexit-tackle-politics-children-football

    Get with the programme. I told you all about this on here about two years ago (my son plays U15 football). The Brexit tackle is a kind of mindlessly aggressive, barely legal tackle, harking back to traditional ugly but effective English football in contrast to Continental skill and sophistication. I think it is a satirical content by the young on the belligerent stupidity of the Brexit vote.
    Except..


    It is gaining positive connotations. Something tough, no nonsense and aggressive

    "Brexit means brexit
    Means when somebody hits a massive slide tackle and usually sends them flying and it hurts them servely.
    Brexit means brexit, I’m going to brake his legs and take his life."

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Brexit means brexit


    Here are people showing HOW to do the Brexit tackle

    https://www.tiktok.com/@kalan_lisbie/video/7311772522297543968


    lol
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    Usual caveats apply:

    "russian big landing ship «Caesar Kunikov» (BDK-64) has been hit, burned and is sinking in the Black Sea."

    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757654903567081729

    A ship built in Poland:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ship_Caesar_Kunikov

    Named after HSU Major Tsezar Kunikov who was killed on the same day in 1943. Top trolling, if deliberate.
    These smoking related accidents are really getting out of hand.
    Not so much Lucky Strike as a tragedy of Hamlet proportions.
    Yes, the Russians are not havana good day.
  • Options
    PJHPJH Posts: 520
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Good morning

    Labour down 5% on this poll

    Tomorrow's by elections should show if this is happening or if it is all smoke and mirrors

    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1757665864696971522?t=zfbTQL3aas6Qcnfmr03h_w&s=19

    Most of that poll was done before Ali-gate.
    Maybe a reaction to the green u-turn . Certainly it’s been a bad week for Labour and not what you want in the run up to the by-elections .

    Perhaps the postal votes might help them seeing as most would have been in before things went south.
    Sky reporting a third labour politician has been spoken to

    https://news.sky.com/story/third-labour-politician-spoken-to-over-meeting-at-centre-of-antisemitism-row-13071272
    It wouldn't surprise me if dozens of Labur MPs have said stuff like this. A potential catastrophe
    Someone yesterday ( @theProle ?) likened the current situation to a scene from "the Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe" in which the White Queen – looking superficially presentable – is seen to be backed by an absolute army of ogres, misfits and crazies. Admittedly I have neither read the book nor seen the film so the analogy was slightly lost on me. But still, I can picture it. And the number of scary luncatics in the ranks behind Starmer is starting to look quite scary.
    Of course, the Tories also have a cast of peculiars too. But their misfits are of a more traditional bent – the not-really-competent-of-effective types, the rules-don’t-really-apply-to-me types. Whereas a good half of the Labour Party appear to be living in a weird teenage twitter rabbithole which has driven them genuinely insane.
    Interesting how you view it; your instincts are to the right so perhaps you don't see the weirdos on the right for what they are. I am more centrist and see both sets of lunatics as being more or less as scary as each other. The key difference to me is that on the right, they are have actually been pulling the levers of power and causing massive damage, whereas for now Starmer gives the impression that they will mostly be kept well out of harm's way.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,290
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    WTF

    Apparently in kids' footy now there is a thing called the "Brexit Tackle", it seems to be quite brutal

    Some kids do it while shouting "Brexit means Brexit"

    Is this just fantasy? An escape from reality?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/brexit-tackle-politics-children-football

    Get with the programme. I told you all about this on here about two years ago (my son plays U15 football). The Brexit tackle is a kind of mindlessly aggressive, barely legal tackle, harking back to traditional ugly but effective English football in contrast to Continental skill and sophistication. I think it is a satirical content by the young on the belligerent stupidity of the Brexit vote.
    Except..


    It is gaining positive connotations. Something tough, no nonsense and aggressive

    "Brexit means brexit
    Means when somebody hits a massive slide tackle and usually sends them flying and it hurts them servely.
    Brexit means brexit, I’m going to brake his legs and take his life."

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Brexit means brexit


    Here are people showing HOW to do the Brexit tackle

    https://www.tiktok.com/@kalan_lisbie/video/7311772522297543968


    lol
    Perhaps its connotations vary by area but for my son and his friends in SE London the idea of the Brexit tackle is very much taking the piss out of Brexit and the people who voted for it.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,826
    viewcode said:

    ...I've never felt at all Jewish in the present...

    How about when you were in the past or future? And how long have you been time-travelling? :):):):)

    It's hard to explain. I know it's part of my history, and where I am from, but my cultural upbringing has been all Christian - Christmas, Easter, church with scouts - and nothing connected with Judaism.

    Does that make more sense?
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,344

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    WTF

    Apparently in kids' footy now there is a thing called the "Brexit Tackle", it seems to be quite brutal

    Some kids do it while shouting "Brexit means Brexit"

    Is this just fantasy? An escape from reality?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/brexit-tackle-politics-children-football

    Get with the programme. I told you all about this on here about two years ago (my son plays U15 football). The Brexit tackle is a kind of mindlessly aggressive, barely legal tackle, harking back to traditional ugly but effective English football in contrast to Continental skill and sophistication. I think it is a satirical content by the young on the belligerent stupidity of the Brexit vote.
    Except..


    It is gaining positive connotations. Something tough, no nonsense and aggressive

    "Brexit means brexit
    Means when somebody hits a massive slide tackle and usually sends them flying and it hurts them servely.
    Brexit means brexit, I’m going to brake his legs and take his life."

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Brexit means brexit


    Here are people showing HOW to do the Brexit tackle

    https://www.tiktok.com/@kalan_lisbie/video/7311772522297543968


    lol
    Perhaps its connotations vary by area but for my son and his friends in SE London the idea of the Brexit tackle is very much taking the piss out of Brexit and the people who voted for it.
    It's hard to think of any situation where shouting 'Brexit means Brexit' isn't appropriate and funny.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,230
    .
    Leon said:

    WTF

    Apparently in kids' footy now there is a thing called the "Brexit Tackle", it seems to be quite brutal

    Some kids do it while shouting "Brexit means Brexit"

    Is this just fantasy? An escape from reality?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/brexit-tackle-politics-children-football

    Is this the real life?
    Is this just fantasy?
    Caught in a landslide,
    No escape from reality.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,088
    edited February 14
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Why did no one tell me about the Apple Series FOR ALL MANKIND

    It's fantastic. Admittedly, I have only watched one episode, but it is brilliant

    The bait and switch on the moon landing is GENIUS

    I've seen 3 episodes, and although it's well done, I'm beginning to suspect that after an intriguing opening it's descending into a slow-moving soap opera that they will milk for as many episodes as they can in the typical way. So I'm probably not going any further unless I hear different.

    If you're on Apple + I can highly recommend Shrinking featuring a great turn by Harrison Ford as a grumpy old man.
    Ach. dammit

    That is my big fear

    So many series now do this. Start with great promise, then fade away HORRIBLY

    I have had to abandon three dramas in recent months for this reason. GRRR
    Yes, it's very annoying. And sometimes the opposite happens - eg I was still enjoying The Path after 3 seasons (though it had got a bit slushy), and they didn't make any more despite the story clearly being unfinished.

    I would say For All Mankind is still entertaining after 3 episodes but 7 seasons are planned, and I don't want to get hooked into having to know what happens because it's too much of a time commitment for me...
    Rotten Tomatoes - which is modestly reliable - insists it contnues well into seasons 2 and 3. I shall persist for now

    The worst of the recent bunch was Money Heist, which started cleverly and elegantly, but described a perfect smooth arc of descent into inanity, plot holes, non sequiturs, stupid characters and tedious distractions

    Monarch: Legacy of Monsters immediately went from quite good in episode 1 to SHITE by ep 3, and stayed there

    On the upside, GRISELDA is great, from episodes 1 to 6. Complete and whole, and all good. Hard recommend
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    WTF

    Apparently in kids' footy now there is a thing called the "Brexit Tackle", it seems to be quite brutal

    Some kids do it while shouting "Brexit means Brexit"

    Is this just fantasy? An escape from reality?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/brexit-tackle-politics-children-football

    Get with the programme. I told you all about this on here about two years ago (my son plays U15 football). The Brexit tackle is a kind of mindlessly aggressive, barely legal tackle, harking back to traditional ugly but effective English football in contrast to Continental skill and sophistication. I think it is a satirical content by the young on the belligerent stupidity of the Brexit vote.
    Except..


    It is gaining positive connotations. Something tough, no nonsense and aggressive

    "Brexit means brexit
    Means when somebody hits a massive slide tackle and usually sends them flying and it hurts them servely.
    Brexit means brexit, I’m going to brake his legs and take his life."

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Brexit means brexit


    Here are people showing HOW to do the Brexit tackle

    https://www.tiktok.com/@kalan_lisbie/video/7311772522297543968


    lol
    There are videos showing all sorts of niche activities on the internet.

    Or so I am told.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,027
    Happy Valentines day


    Parody Rishi Sunak
    @Parody_PM
    ·
    8m
    Roses are red
    Violets are blue
    I'm rich as fuck
    And don't care about you
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,806
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    WTF

    Apparently in kids' footy now there is a thing called the "Brexit Tackle", it seems to be quite brutal

    Some kids do it while shouting "Brexit means Brexit"

    Is this just fantasy? An escape from reality?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/brexit-tackle-politics-children-football

    Get with the programme. I told you all about this on here about two years ago (my son plays U15 football). The Brexit tackle is a kind of mindlessly aggressive, barely legal tackle, harking back to traditional ugly but effective English football in contrast to Continental skill and sophistication. I think it is a satirical content by the young on the belligerent stupidity of the Brexit vote.
    Except..


    It is gaining positive connotations. Something tough, no nonsense and aggressive

    "Brexit means brexit
    Means when somebody hits a massive slide tackle and usually sends them flying and it hurts them servely.
    Brexit means brexit, I’m going to brake his legs and take his life."

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Brexit means brexit


    Here are people showing HOW to do the Brexit tackle

    https://www.tiktok.com/@kalan_lisbie/video/7311772522297543968


    lol
    Perhaps its connotations vary by area but for my son and his friends in SE London the idea of the Brexit tackle is very much taking the piss out of Brexit and the people who voted for it.
    It's hard to think of any situation where shouting 'Brexit means Brexit' isn't appropriate and funny.
    Boris Johnson at the DUP conference?
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,290

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Good morning

    Labour down 5% on this poll

    Tomorrow's by elections should show if this is happening or if it is all smoke and mirrors

    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1757665864696971522?t=zfbTQL3aas6Qcnfmr03h_w&s=19

    Most of that poll was done before Ali-gate.
    Maybe a reaction to the green u-turn . Certainly it’s been a bad week for Labour and not what you want in the run up to the by-elections .

    Perhaps the postal votes might help them seeing as most would have been in before things went south.
    Sky reporting a third labour politician has been spoken to

    https://news.sky.com/story/third-labour-politician-spoken-to-over-meeting-at-centre-of-antisemitism-row-13071272
    It wouldn't surprise me if dozens of Labur MPs have said stuff like this. A potential catastrophe
    That guy appears to have merely heard rather than spoken, but can Sir Keir afford to show any mercy?
    So even hearing somebody say something critical of Israel makes you an antisemite now...
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Why did no one tell me about the Apple Series FOR ALL MANKIND

    It's fantastic. Admittedly, I have only watched one episode, but it is brilliant

    The bait and switch on the moon landing is GENIUS

    You will hate later series. Its very woke.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,339
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Why did no one tell me about the Apple Series FOR ALL MANKIND

    It's fantastic. Admittedly, I have only watched one episode, but it is brilliant

    The bait and switch on the moon landing is GENIUS

    I've seen 3 episodes, and although it's well done, I'm beginning to suspect that after an intriguing opening it's descending into a slow-moving soap opera that they will milk for as many episodes as they can in the typical way. So I'm probably not going any further unless I hear different.

    If you're on Apple + I can highly recommend Shrinking featuring a great turn by Harrison Ford as a grumpy old man.
    Ach. dammit

    That is my big fear

    So many series now do this. Start with great promise, then fade away HORRIBLY

    I have had to abandon three dramas in recent months for this reason. GRRR
    Yes, it's very annoying. And sometimes the opposite happens - eg I was still enjoying The Path after 3 seasons (though it had got a bit slushy), and they didn't make any more despite the story clearly being unfinished.

    I would say For All Mankind is still entertaining after 3 episodes but 7 seasons are planned, and I don't want to get hooked into having to know what happens because it's too much of a time commitment for me...
    It helps if you think of "For All Mankind" as a stealth prequel to "Star Trek" (the theory being that the USSR lasts into the 21st century, there's a nuclear war, then a Vulcan ship floats down from the sky in the last episode). Being a fan theory it's bollocks, but given that the showrunner is Ron Moore who did the 200s BSG, he'll probably fuck up the plot so badly they'll have to introduce angels to fix it.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,598
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Good morning

    Labour down 5% on this poll

    Tomorrow's by elections should show if this is happening or if it is all smoke and mirrors

    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1757665864696971522?t=zfbTQL3aas6Qcnfmr03h_w&s=19

    Most of that poll was done before Ali-gate.
    Maybe a reaction to the green u-turn . Certainly it’s been a bad week for Labour and not what you want in the run up to the by-elections .

    Perhaps the postal votes might help them seeing as most would have been in before things went south.
    Sky reporting a third labour politician has been spoken to

    https://news.sky.com/story/third-labour-politician-spoken-to-over-meeting-at-centre-of-antisemitism-row-13071272
    It wouldn't surprise me if dozens of Labur MPs have said stuff like this. A potential catastrophe
    Someone yesterday ( @theProle ?) likened the current situation to a scene from "the Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe" in which the White Queen – looking superficially presentable – is seen to be backed by an absolute army of ogres, misfits and crazies. Admittedly I have neither read the book nor seen the film so the analogy was slightly lost on me. But still, I can picture it. And the number of scary luncatics in the ranks behind Starmer is starting to look quite scary.
    Of course, the Tories also have a cast of peculiars too. But their misfits are of a more traditional bent – the not-really-competent-of-effective types, the rules-don’t-really-apply-to-me types. Whereas a good half of the Labour Party appear to be living in a weird teenage twitter rabbithole which has driven them genuinely insane.
    "a good half of the Labour Party"

    I'll be kind and put this down to artistic licence.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,102
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Why did no one tell me about the Apple Series FOR ALL MANKIND

    It's fantastic. Admittedly, I have only watched one episode, but it is brilliant

    The bait and switch on the moon landing is GENIUS

    I've seen 3 episodes, and although it's well done, I'm beginning to suspect that after an intriguing opening it's descending into a slow-moving soap opera that they will milk for as many episodes as they can in the typical way. So I'm probably not going any further unless I hear different.

    If you're on Apple + I can highly recommend Shrinking featuring a great turn by Harrison Ford as a grumpy old man.
    Ach. dammit

    That is my big fear

    So many series now do this. Start with great promise, then fade away HORRIBLY

    I have had to abandon three dramas in recent months for this reason. GRRR
    Yes, it's very annoying. And sometimes the opposite happens - eg I was still enjoying The Path after 3 seasons (though it had got a bit slushy), and they didn't make any more despite the story clearly being unfinished.

    I would say For All Mankind is still entertaining after 3 episodes but 7 seasons are planned, and I don't want to get hooked into having to know what happens because it's too much of a time commitment for me...
    The problem is that writers resort to The Big Reveal all the fucking time. Suddenly, everything you knew about X is changed! After they do this 27 times, you lose interest.

    That, and inject pointless, bizarre, relationship drama.

    The contrast with series like Person of Interest, where they actually build on characters, rather than randomly demolish them, is profound.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,088

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    WTF

    Apparently in kids' footy now there is a thing called the "Brexit Tackle", it seems to be quite brutal

    Some kids do it while shouting "Brexit means Brexit"

    Is this just fantasy? An escape from reality?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/brexit-tackle-politics-children-football

    Get with the programme. I told you all about this on here about two years ago (my son plays U15 football). The Brexit tackle is a kind of mindlessly aggressive, barely legal tackle, harking back to traditional ugly but effective English football in contrast to Continental skill and sophistication. I think it is a satirical content by the young on the belligerent stupidity of the Brexit vote.
    Except..


    It is gaining positive connotations. Something tough, no nonsense and aggressive

    "Brexit means brexit
    Means when somebody hits a massive slide tackle and usually sends them flying and it hurts them servely.
    Brexit means brexit, I’m going to brake his legs and take his life."

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Brexit means brexit


    Here are people showing HOW to do the Brexit tackle

    https://www.tiktok.com/@kalan_lisbie/video/7311772522297543968


    lol
    Perhaps its connotations vary by area but for my son and his friends in SE London the idea of the Brexit tackle is very much taking the piss out of Brexit and the people who voted for it.
    Except you can see from that video (and there are hundreds like it) it is very much not seen as that any more. I can believe it began that way. but now it means a highly effective and extremely aggressive defensive tackle, which "cleans out" the opponent, as that TikTok influencer shows
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,629
    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Good morning

    Labour down 5% on this poll

    Tomorrow's by elections should show if this is happening or if it is all smoke and mirrors

    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1757665864696971522?t=zfbTQL3aas6Qcnfmr03h_w&s=19

    Most of that poll was done before Ali-gate.
    Maybe a reaction to the green u-turn . Certainly it’s been a bad week for Labour and not what you want in the run up to the by-elections .

    Perhaps the postal votes might help them seeing as most would have been in before things went south.
    Sky reporting a third labour politician has been spoken to

    https://news.sky.com/story/third-labour-politician-spoken-to-over-meeting-at-centre-of-antisemitism-row-13071272
    It wouldn't surprise me if dozens of Labur MPs have said stuff like this. A potential catastrophe
    Someone yesterday ( @theProle ?) likened the current situation to a scene from "the Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe" in which the White Queen – looking superficially presentable – is seen to be backed by an absolute army of ogres, misfits and crazies. Admittedly I have neither read the book nor seen the film so the analogy was slightly lost on me. But still, I can picture it. And the number of scary luncatics in the ranks behind Starmer is starting to look quite scary.
    Of course, the Tories also have a cast of peculiars too. But their misfits are of a more traditional bent – the not-really-competent-of-effective types, the rules-don’t-really-apply-to-me types. Whereas a good half of the Labour Party appear to be living in a weird teenage twitter rabbithole which has driven them genuinely insane.
    "a good half of the Labour Party"

    I'll be kind and put this down to artistic licence.
    Makes me worry about the bad half, tbh! :open_mouth:
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,268
    edited February 14
    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Why did no one tell me about the Apple Series FOR ALL MANKIND

    It's fantastic. Admittedly, I have only watched one episode, but it is brilliant

    The bait and switch on the moon landing is GENIUS

    I've seen 3 episodes, and although it's well done, I'm beginning to suspect that after an intriguing opening it's descending into a slow-moving soap opera that they will milk for as many episodes as they can in the typical way. So I'm probably not going any further unless I hear different.

    If you're on Apple + I can highly recommend Shrinking featuring a great turn by Harrison Ford as a grumpy old man.
    Ach. dammit

    That is my big fear

    So many series now do this. Start with great promise, then fade away HORRIBLY

    I have had to abandon three dramas in recent months for this reason. GRRR
    Yes, it's very annoying. And sometimes the opposite happens - eg I was still enjoying The Path after 3 seasons (though it had got a bit slushy), and they didn't make any more despite the story clearly being unfinished.

    I would say For All Mankind is still entertaining after 3 episodes but 7 seasons are planned, and I don't want to get hooked into having to know what happens because it's too much of a time commitment for me...
    Rotten Tomatoes - which is modestly reliable - insists it contnues well into seasons 2 and 3. I shall persist for now

    The worst of the recent bunch was Money Heist, which started cleverly and elegantly, but described a perfect smooth arc of descent into inanity, plot holes, non sequiturs, stupid characters and tedious distractions

    Monarch: Legacy of Monsters immediately went from quite good in episode 1 to SHITE by ep 3, and stayed there

    On the upside, GRISELDA is great, from episodes 1 to 6. Complete and whole, and all good. Hard recommend
    1) Just started Slow Horses after rave reviews on PB. I have that desperate need for the next episode for the first time in years - it's superb. Rationing to one episode an evening.

    2) Brexit tackles are all over the internet. I think it might have started on FIFA? (Video game). That's also where the ubiquitous anti-semitic description for a tap-in comes from.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,290
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    WTF

    Apparently in kids' footy now there is a thing called the "Brexit Tackle", it seems to be quite brutal

    Some kids do it while shouting "Brexit means Brexit"

    Is this just fantasy? An escape from reality?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/brexit-tackle-politics-children-football

    Get with the programme. I told you all about this on here about two years ago (my son plays U15 football). The Brexit tackle is a kind of mindlessly aggressive, barely legal tackle, harking back to traditional ugly but effective English football in contrast to Continental skill and sophistication. I think it is a satirical content by the young on the belligerent stupidity of the Brexit vote.
    Except..


    It is gaining positive connotations. Something tough, no nonsense and aggressive

    "Brexit means brexit
    Means when somebody hits a massive slide tackle and usually sends them flying and it hurts them servely.
    Brexit means brexit, I’m going to brake his legs and take his life."

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Brexit means brexit


    Here are people showing HOW to do the Brexit tackle

    https://www.tiktok.com/@kalan_lisbie/video/7311772522297543968


    lol
    Perhaps its connotations vary by area but for my son and his friends in SE London the idea of the Brexit tackle is very much taking the piss out of Brexit and the people who voted for it.
    Except you can see from that video (and there are hundreds like it) it is very much not seen as that any more. I can believe it began that way. but now it means a highly effective and extremely aggressive defensive tackle, which "cleans out" the opponent, as that TikTok influencer shows
    Yeah I've known about this for years and have seen and heard about it first hand from kids who play football, but you've watched a video on the Internet so I bow to your superior wisdom.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,088
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Why did no one tell me about the Apple Series FOR ALL MANKIND

    It's fantastic. Admittedly, I have only watched one episode, but it is brilliant

    The bait and switch on the moon landing is GENIUS

    I've seen 3 episodes, and although it's well done, I'm beginning to suspect that after an intriguing opening it's descending into a slow-moving soap opera that they will milk for as many episodes as they can in the typical way. So I'm probably not going any further unless I hear different.

    If you're on Apple + I can highly recommend Shrinking featuring a great turn by Harrison Ford as a grumpy old man.
    Ach. dammit

    That is my big fear

    So many series now do this. Start with great promise, then fade away HORRIBLY

    I have had to abandon three dramas in recent months for this reason. GRRR
    Yes, it's very annoying. And sometimes the opposite happens - eg I was still enjoying The Path after 3 seasons (though it had got a bit slushy), and they didn't make any more despite the story clearly being unfinished.

    I would say For All Mankind is still entertaining after 3 episodes but 7 seasons are planned, and I don't want to get hooked into having to know what happens because it's too much of a time commitment for me...
    Rotten Tomatoes - which is modestly reliable - insists it contnues well into seasons 2 and 3. I shall persist for now

    The worst of the recent bunch was Money Heist, which started cleverly and elegantly, but described a perfect smooth arc of descent into inanity, plot holes, non sequiturs, stupid characters and tedious distractions

    Monarch: Legacy of Monsters immediately went from quite good in episode 1 to SHITE by ep 3, and stayed there

    On the upside, GRISELDA is great, from episodes 1 to 6. Complete and whole, and all good. Hard recommend
    1) Just started Slow Horses after rave reviews on PB. I have that desperate need for the next episode for the first time in years - it's superb. Rationing to one episode an evening.

    2) Brexit tackles are all over the internet. I think it might have started on FIFA? (Video game). That's also where the ubiquitous anti-semitic description for a tap-in comes from.
    it took me ages to "get" Slow Horses, but finally I did, and I like it. Excellent entertainment
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,027

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Good morning

    Labour down 5% on this poll

    Tomorrow's by elections should show if this is happening or if it is all smoke and mirrors

    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1757665864696971522?t=zfbTQL3aas6Qcnfmr03h_w&s=19

    Most of that poll was done before Ali-gate.
    Maybe a reaction to the green u-turn . Certainly it’s been a bad week for Labour and not what you want in the run up to the by-elections .

    Perhaps the postal votes might help them seeing as most would have been in before things went south.
    Sky reporting a third labour politician has been spoken to

    https://news.sky.com/story/third-labour-politician-spoken-to-over-meeting-at-centre-of-antisemitism-row-13071272
    It wouldn't surprise me if dozens of Labur MPs have said stuff like this. A potential catastrophe
    That guy appears to have merely heard rather than spoken, but can Sir Keir afford to show any mercy?
    So even hearing somebody say something critical of Israel makes you an antisemite now...
    If you don't repeat 100 times a day I support Zionism without qualification and send the recording to Luke Akehurst before 11am you are an antisemitic c##t

  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,344
    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Why did no one tell me about the Apple Series FOR ALL MANKIND

    It's fantastic. Admittedly, I have only watched one episode, but it is brilliant

    The bait and switch on the moon landing is GENIUS

    I've seen 3 episodes, and although it's well done, I'm beginning to suspect that after an intriguing opening it's descending into a slow-moving soap opera that they will milk for as many episodes as they can in the typical way. So I'm probably not going any further unless I hear different.

    If you're on Apple + I can highly recommend Shrinking featuring a great turn by Harrison Ford as a grumpy old man.
    Ach. dammit

    That is my big fear

    So many series now do this. Start with great promise, then fade away HORRIBLY

    I have had to abandon three dramas in recent months for this reason. GRRR
    Yes, it's very annoying. And sometimes the opposite happens - eg I was still enjoying The Path after 3 seasons (though it had got a bit slushy), and they didn't make any more despite the story clearly being unfinished.

    I would say For All Mankind is still entertaining after 3 episodes but 7 seasons are planned, and I don't want to get hooked into having to know what happens because it's too much of a time commitment for me...
    Rotten Tomatoes - which is modestly reliable - insists it contnues well into seasons 2 and 3. I shall persist for now

    The worst of the recent bunch was Money Heist, which started cleverly and elegantly, but described a perfect smooth arc of descent into inanity, plot holes, non sequiturs, stupid characters and tedious distractions

    Monarch: Legacy of Monsters immediately went from quite good in episode 1 to SHITE by ep 3, and stayed there
    Let us know how it goes!

    It took me 2 and a half seasons to give up on Mad Men.

    I've never seen an episode of Lost, or The Crown, or Game of Thrones (probably too violent for me), or Eastenders. Maybe I am commitment-phobic.

    Never heard of Monarch: Legacy of Monsters. I saw Money Heist advertised - it looked interesting but my wife can't be bothered with subtitles, and I refuse to watch anything dubbed (if it was even available) so didn't bother. Won't now.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,806
    For TSE:

  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,339

    ...Person of Interest, where they actually build on characters...

    Yes, I liked Person of Interest too, and I think it's aged well. Not sure I can say the same for Mr Robot... :(

  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,027

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Good morning

    Labour down 5% on this poll

    Tomorrow's by elections should show if this is happening or if it is all smoke and mirrors

    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1757665864696971522?t=zfbTQL3aas6Qcnfmr03h_w&s=19

    Most of that poll was done before Ali-gate.
    Maybe a reaction to the green u-turn . Certainly it’s been a bad week for Labour and not what you want in the run up to the by-elections .

    Perhaps the postal votes might help them seeing as most would have been in before things went south.
    Sky reporting a third labour politician has been spoken to

    https://news.sky.com/story/third-labour-politician-spoken-to-over-meeting-at-centre-of-antisemitism-row-13071272
    It wouldn't surprise me if dozens of Labur MPs have said stuff like this. A potential catastrophe
    That guy appears to have merely heard rather than spoken, but can Sir Keir afford to show any mercy?
    So even hearing somebody say something critical of Israel makes you an antisemite now...
    If you don't repeat 100 times a day I support Zionism without qualification and send the recording to Luke Akehurst before 11am you are an antisemitic c##t

    Especially if you are also a Socialist.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,088

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    WTF

    Apparently in kids' footy now there is a thing called the "Brexit Tackle", it seems to be quite brutal

    Some kids do it while shouting "Brexit means Brexit"

    Is this just fantasy? An escape from reality?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/brexit-tackle-politics-children-football

    Get with the programme. I told you all about this on here about two years ago (my son plays U15 football). The Brexit tackle is a kind of mindlessly aggressive, barely legal tackle, harking back to traditional ugly but effective English football in contrast to Continental skill and sophistication. I think it is a satirical content by the young on the belligerent stupidity of the Brexit vote.
    Except..


    It is gaining positive connotations. Something tough, no nonsense and aggressive

    "Brexit means brexit
    Means when somebody hits a massive slide tackle and usually sends them flying and it hurts them servely.
    Brexit means brexit, I’m going to brake his legs and take his life."

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Brexit means brexit


    Here are people showing HOW to do the Brexit tackle

    https://www.tiktok.com/@kalan_lisbie/video/7311772522297543968


    lol
    Perhaps its connotations vary by area but for my son and his friends in SE London the idea of the Brexit tackle is very much taking the piss out of Brexit and the people who voted for it.
    Except you can see from that video (and there are hundreds like it) it is very much not seen as that any more. I can believe it began that way. but now it means a highly effective and extremely aggressive defensive tackle, which "cleans out" the opponent, as that TikTok influencer shows
    Yeah I've known about this for years and have seen and heard about it first hand from kids who play football, but you've watched a video on the Internet so I bow to your superior wisdom.
    Thanks
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,230
    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Why did no one tell me about the Apple Series FOR ALL MANKIND

    It's fantastic. Admittedly, I have only watched one episode, but it is brilliant

    The bait and switch on the moon landing is GENIUS

    I've seen 3 episodes, and although it's well done, I'm beginning to suspect that after an intriguing opening it's descending into a slow-moving soap opera that they will milk for as many episodes as they can in the typical way. So I'm probably not going any further unless I hear different.

    If you're on Apple + I can highly recommend Shrinking featuring a great turn by Harrison Ford as a grumpy old man.
    Ach. dammit

    That is my big fear

    So many series now do this. Start with great promise, then fade away HORRIBLY

    I have had to abandon three dramas in recent months for this reason. GRRR
    Yes, it's very annoying. And sometimes the opposite happens - eg I was still enjoying The Path after 3 seasons (though it had got a bit slushy), and they didn't make any more despite the story clearly being unfinished.

    I would say For All Mankind is still entertaining after 3 episodes but 7 seasons are planned, and I don't want to get hooked into having to know what happens because it's too much of a time commitment for me...
    Rotten Tomatoes - which is modestly reliable - insists it contnues well into seasons 2 and 3. I shall persist for now

    The worst of the recent bunch was Money Heist, which started cleverly and elegantly, but described a perfect smooth arc of descent into inanity, plot holes, non sequiturs, stupid characters and tedious distractions

    Monarch: Legacy of Monsters immediately went from quite good in episode 1 to SHITE by ep 3, and stayed there

    On the upside, GRISELDA is great, from episodes 1 to 6. Complete and whole, and all good. Hard recommend
    1) Just started Slow Horses after rave reviews on PB. I have that desperate need for the next episode for the first time in years - it's superb. Rationing to one episode an evening.

    2) Brexit tackles are all over the internet. I think it might have started on FIFA? (Video game). That's also where the ubiquitous anti-semitic description for a tap-in comes from.
    it took me ages to "get" Slow Horses, but finally I did, and I like it. Excellent entertainment
    Slow Horses was a one-night binge every season. Possibly the best television drama since Breaking Bad ended.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,268
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    WTF

    Apparently in kids' footy now there is a thing called the "Brexit Tackle", it seems to be quite brutal

    Some kids do it while shouting "Brexit means Brexit"

    Is this just fantasy? An escape from reality?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/brexit-tackle-politics-children-football

    Get with the programme. I told you all about this on here about two years ago (my son plays U15 football). The Brexit tackle is a kind of mindlessly aggressive, barely legal tackle, harking back to traditional ugly but effective English football in contrast to Continental skill and sophistication. I think it is a satirical content by the young on the belligerent stupidity of the Brexit vote.
    Except..


    It is gaining positive connotations. Something tough, no nonsense and aggressive

    "Brexit means brexit
    Means when somebody hits a massive slide tackle and usually sends them flying and it hurts them servely.
    Brexit means brexit, I’m going to brake his legs and take his life."

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Brexit means brexit


    Here are people showing HOW to do the Brexit tackle

    https://www.tiktok.com/@kalan_lisbie/video/7311772522297543968


    lol
    Perhaps its connotations vary by area but for my son and his friends in SE London the idea of the Brexit tackle is very much taking the piss out of Brexit and the people who voted for it.
    Except you can see from that video (and there are hundreds like it) it is very much not seen as that any more. I can believe it began that way. but now it means a highly effective and extremely aggressive defensive tackle, which "cleans out" the opponent, as that TikTok influencer shows
    It started as a dangerous tackle, often performed by an overweight divorced white man who is promptly sent off much to the dismay of his teammates.

    "Brexit tackle"
  • Options

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    WTF

    Apparently in kids' footy now there is a thing called the "Brexit Tackle", it seems to be quite brutal

    Some kids do it while shouting "Brexit means Brexit"

    Is this just fantasy? An escape from reality?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/brexit-tackle-politics-children-football

    Get with the programme. I told you all about this on here about two years ago (my son plays U15 football). The Brexit tackle is a kind of mindlessly aggressive, barely legal tackle, harking back to traditional ugly but effective English football in contrast to Continental skill and sophistication. I think it is a satirical content by the young on the belligerent stupidity of the Brexit vote.
    Except..


    It is gaining positive connotations. Something tough, no nonsense and aggressive

    "Brexit means brexit
    Means when somebody hits a massive slide tackle and usually sends them flying and it hurts them servely.
    Brexit means brexit, I’m going to brake his legs and take his life."

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Brexit means brexit


    Here are people showing HOW to do the Brexit tackle

    https://www.tiktok.com/@kalan_lisbie/video/7311772522297543968


    lol
    Perhaps its connotations vary by area but for my son and his friends in SE London the idea of the Brexit tackle is very much taking the piss out of Brexit and the people who voted for it.
    Maybe it’s like that tackle Gazza did in the cup final when he was playing for Spurs and blew his ACL. Maybe that’s the ur-Brexit tackle, the seminal moment, Gazza’s unique footballing brain seeing the calamity decades before it came to pass. A tackle launched with belligerent gusto and enthusiasm but tragically proving to be massively self-damaging. Yes Gazza played on and had some success but he was never quite the same player, with the same authority and influence, ever again. A diminished presence.

    The Brexit tackle was mentioned on Linekar’s football podcast recently, with no positive connotation attached.

    No surprise there from the woke limp cuck, amiright???!!!
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,088
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Why did no one tell me about the Apple Series FOR ALL MANKIND

    It's fantastic. Admittedly, I have only watched one episode, but it is brilliant

    The bait and switch on the moon landing is GENIUS

    I've seen 3 episodes, and although it's well done, I'm beginning to suspect that after an intriguing opening it's descending into a slow-moving soap opera that they will milk for as many episodes as they can in the typical way. So I'm probably not going any further unless I hear different.

    If you're on Apple + I can highly recommend Shrinking featuring a great turn by Harrison Ford as a grumpy old man.
    Ach. dammit

    That is my big fear

    So many series now do this. Start with great promise, then fade away HORRIBLY

    I have had to abandon three dramas in recent months for this reason. GRRR
    Yes, it's very annoying. And sometimes the opposite happens - eg I was still enjoying The Path after 3 seasons (though it had got a bit slushy), and they didn't make any more despite the story clearly being unfinished.

    I would say For All Mankind is still entertaining after 3 episodes but 7 seasons are planned, and I don't want to get hooked into having to know what happens because it's too much of a time commitment for me...
    Rotten Tomatoes - which is modestly reliable - insists it contnues well into seasons 2 and 3. I shall persist for now

    The worst of the recent bunch was Money Heist, which started cleverly and elegantly, but described a perfect smooth arc of descent into inanity, plot holes, non sequiturs, stupid characters and tedious distractions

    Monarch: Legacy of Monsters immediately went from quite good in episode 1 to SHITE by ep 3, and stayed there
    Let us know how it goes!

    It took me 2 and a half seasons to give up on Mad Men.

    I've never seen an episode of Lost, or The Crown, or Game of Thrones (probably too violent for me), or Eastenders. Maybe I am commitment-phobic.

    Never heard of Monarch: Legacy of Monsters. I saw Money Heist advertised - it looked interesting but my wife can't be bothered with subtitles, and I refuse to watch anything dubbed (if it was even available) so didn't bother. Won't now.
    Mad Men was great, until about season 4 or 5 (most dramas collapse by seasons 4 or 5, if they get that far - it is an actual rule, with very few exceptions)

    The first season of the Crown is superb, second jolly good, then increasingly bad

    Game of Thrones is sui generis. I loved it, mostly, even while finding the plot absurdly complex and difficult to comprehend, it had that knack that, just when you felt like abandoning it for its labyrinthine complexity, it would have a brilliant scene with clever lines, or a spectacular battle sequence, or just the midget being funny

    Great actors helped; also good characterisation

  • Options
    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,794

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    WTF

    Apparently in kids' footy now there is a thing called the "Brexit Tackle", it seems to be quite brutal

    Some kids do it while shouting "Brexit means Brexit"

    Is this just fantasy? An escape from reality?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/brexit-tackle-politics-children-football

    Get with the programme. I told you all about this on here about two years ago (my son plays U15 football). The Brexit tackle is a kind of mindlessly aggressive, barely legal tackle, harking back to traditional ugly but effective English football in contrast to Continental skill and sophistication. I think it is a satirical content by the young on the belligerent stupidity of the Brexit vote.
    Except..


    It is gaining positive connotations. Something tough, no nonsense and aggressive

    "Brexit means brexit
    Means when somebody hits a massive slide tackle and usually sends them flying and it hurts them servely.
    Brexit means brexit, I’m going to brake his legs and take his life."

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Brexit means brexit


    Here are people showing HOW to do the Brexit tackle

    https://www.tiktok.com/@kalan_lisbie/video/7311772522297543968


    lol
    Perhaps its connotations vary by area but for my son and his friends in SE London the idea of the Brexit tackle is very much taking the piss out of Brexit and the people who voted for it.
    Maybe it’s like that tackle Gazza did in the cup final when he was playing for Spurs and blew his ACL. Maybe that’s the ur-Brexit tackle, the seminal moment, Gazza’s unique footballing brain seeing the calamity decades before it came to pass. A tackle launched with belligerent gusto and enthusiasm but tragically proving to be massively self-damaging. Yes Gazza played on and had some success but he was never quite the same player, with the same authority and influence, ever again. A diminished presence.

    The Brexit tackle was mentioned on Linekar’s football podcast recently, with no positive connotation attached.

    No surprise there from the woke limp cuck, amiright???!!!
    Isn't a Brexit tackle one that gets the perpetrator sent off?
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,339

    viewcode said:

    ...I've never felt at all Jewish in the present...

    How about when you were in the past or future? And how long have you been time-travelling? :):):):)

    It's hard to explain. I know it's part of my history, and where I am from, but my cultural upbringing has been all Christian - Christmas, Easter, church with scouts - and nothing connected with Judaism.

    Does that make more sense?
    Yes it does, a sense of bifurcation common amongst emigres and the children of the different. We assume that the here and now is eternal and universal, but as we get older we realise that there and then were different, and that the future may also be.

    What you are now is not who you were as a child, nor what your parents and grandparents were...

    ... I'll have to stop now or I'll start talking about golden threads, our links to the past and our responsibilities to the future, hand to hand to hand thru the ages until the stars grow cold... :)
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,102
    edited February 14
    viewcode said:

    ...Person of Interest, where they actually build on characters...

    Yes, I liked Person of Interest too, and I think it's aged well. Not sure I can say the same for Mr Robot... :(


    John Reese: Never understood why people put all their information on those [social networking] sites. Used to make our job a lot easier in the CIA.


    Harold Finch: Of course. That's why I created them.


    John Reese: You're telling me you invented online social networking, Finch?


    Harold Finch: The Machine needed more information. People's social graph, their associations. The government had been trying to figure it out for years. Turns out most people were happy to volunteer it. Business wound up being quite profitable, too.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,088
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    WTF

    Apparently in kids' footy now there is a thing called the "Brexit Tackle", it seems to be quite brutal

    Some kids do it while shouting "Brexit means Brexit"

    Is this just fantasy? An escape from reality?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/brexit-tackle-politics-children-football

    Get with the programme. I told you all about this on here about two years ago (my son plays U15 football). The Brexit tackle is a kind of mindlessly aggressive, barely legal tackle, harking back to traditional ugly but effective English football in contrast to Continental skill and sophistication. I think it is a satirical content by the young on the belligerent stupidity of the Brexit vote.
    Except..


    It is gaining positive connotations. Something tough, no nonsense and aggressive

    "Brexit means brexit
    Means when somebody hits a massive slide tackle and usually sends them flying and it hurts them servely.
    Brexit means brexit, I’m going to brake his legs and take his life."

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Brexit means brexit


    Here are people showing HOW to do the Brexit tackle

    https://www.tiktok.com/@kalan_lisbie/video/7311772522297543968


    lol
    Perhaps its connotations vary by area but for my son and his friends in SE London the idea of the Brexit tackle is very much taking the piss out of Brexit and the people who voted for it.
    Except you can see from that video (and there are hundreds like it) it is very much not seen as that any more. I can believe it began that way. but now it means a highly effective and extremely aggressive defensive tackle, which "cleans out" the opponent, as that TikTok influencer shows
    It started as a dangerous tackle, often performed by an overweight divorced white man who is promptly sent off much to the dismay of his teammates.

    "Brexit tackle"
    Spend twenty minutes on the internet, it isn't that anymore

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIx7N6uJ23Q

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LF6y4WAjKYQ

    You can actually see the term evolving, from pejorative to neutral to admiring, to the extent TikTok stars now teach it

    This isn't really about politics (or Brexit), this is about language. Slang often sees term evolve to mean their opposite

    See "wicked", "sick", "dope", "snide" - which all became positives. Hundreds more examples
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    For TSE:

    I am happy to give Galloway lessons in humility.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,088
    viewcode said:

    ...Person of Interest, where they actually build on characters...

    Yes, I liked Person of Interest too, and I think it's aged well. Not sure I can say the same for Mr Robot... :(

    Mr Robot was shit from the get-go
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,344

    ydoethur said:

    For TSE:

    I am happy to give Galloway lessons in humility.
    Galloway's style is more Leon than TSE though, isn't it?
  • Options

    PJH said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Inflation stays at 4%

    *brushes fingernails quietly*

    Next up, did the UK really suffer a technical recession in Q4 and Q1? I think not.
    It's easy to get carried away by the technical details and for the government to pop the champagne and slap each other on the back for a job well done in lowering inflation. Out in the real world, mortgages are as costly and as unaffordable as they've ever been and hundreds of thousands of mortgage holders have still yet to remortgage onto much higher rates. Energy bills are still crippling, food still going up. Mortgage arrears are at their highest rate since the GFC. Business insolvency ditto. It's grim out there
    The inflation figures don't lie, but they ain't telling the truth either.
    Oh I agree with all of that. Real wages are rising by more than 2% a year on average now but that does not come close to offsetting the additional costs borne by those with mortgages in particular. Many people are struggling and 4% inflation is not great. Some lenders are edging their mortgage offers back up again now on the assumption that base rates are going to fall more slowly than once thought. That is very much the way I see it, particularly if I am right that a technical recession is avoided.
    Don't forget that about a year ago, inflation was 11% and pay rises were at best 5-6%; so if you're working for a typical employer such as mine this year offering about 1-2% above inflation it will take about another 3 years or so to close that gap before people start feeling better than slightly less badly off compared to before.
    In reality people were on average about 3% worse off for a year and nearly half of that has already been recovered.

    But what is forgotten is how much real pay increased in 2021.

    From the ONS:

    Total pay (real):

    Jan-Mar 2020 +0.5%
    Apr-Jun 2020 -1.8%
    Jul-Sep 2020 +0.7%
    Oct-Dec 2020 +3.8%
    Jan-Mar 2021 +3.2%
    Apr-Jun 2021 +6.8%
    Jul-Sep 2021 +3.1%
    Oct-Dec 2021 +0.2%
    Jan-Mar 2022 +1.4%
    Apr-Jun 2022 -2.4%
    Jul-Sep 2022 -2.7%
    Oct-Dec 2022 -2.8%
    Jan-Mar 2023 -2.6%
    Apr-Jun 2023 +0.7%
    Jul-Sep 2023 +1.4%
    Oct-Dec 2023 +1.4%

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/timeseries/a3ww/lms

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/latest

    There's also the extra handouts people received, the £400 energy subsidy and the month's council tax rebate plus much more for the poor and oldies.
    How much of that pay inflation gets through to take home pay for a family renting and on universal credit? Posters on here have calculated marginal tax rates of 70%+ at that end of the spectrum and there are occassional instances where extra pay equals less income.

    Much of the pay inflation will have been at and just above the NMW rates by design, a lot of the rest is still at the elite level. Real median earnings are rising much slower than real average earnings.

    https://ifs.org.uk/articles/pay-growth-londons-top-earners-has-driven-geographical-inequality-mean-earnings#:~:text=Strong pay growth in finance,have seen little pay growth.

    So low earners see most of the rises taken up by the benefits traps and middle earners are seeing smaller rises combined with being most likely to be hit on mortgage rates or private sector rent increases.

    Sure those are average numbers and everyone's an individual.

    And there's many millions who have done worse than the average.

    But there's also many millions who have done better than the average.

    And the average itself is positive despite four years of economic turmoil.

    There seems to be a widespread and bizarre insistence that everyone is worse off and heading to the poor house.

    And that's a denial of reality equal to insisting that everyone is doing great.

    From apprentices on over £25k to tradesmen earning £85k to GenXs discussing their retirement plans (I've heard 58, 60, 63 mentioned recently) to oldies booking their cruises there are lots of people who have never been as well off.

    Sure there are a wide range of individual circumstances.

    Electorally though I suspect what tends to happen is:

    People who are better off than expected vote for the party they most identify with.
    People who are worse off than expected vote for the opposition.

    So aggregate bad news is not balanced out electorally by the wide range of circumstances.
    Another group:

    People who think they are worse off vote according to who they blame.

    That benefitted the Conservatives in 2015.

    But now, Jeremy Hunt aside, they seem to have given up even making an economic case.

    I suspect that because unemployment was high during the Thatcher government that many Conservatives actually think that low unemployment is a bad thing.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,344
    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    WTF

    Apparently in kids' footy now there is a thing called the "Brexit Tackle", it seems to be quite brutal

    Some kids do it while shouting "Brexit means Brexit"

    Is this just fantasy? An escape from reality?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/brexit-tackle-politics-children-football

    Get with the programme. I told you all about this on here about two years ago (my son plays U15 football). The Brexit tackle is a kind of mindlessly aggressive, barely legal tackle, harking back to traditional ugly but effective English football in contrast to Continental skill and sophistication. I think it is a satirical content by the young on the belligerent stupidity of the Brexit vote.
    Except..


    It is gaining positive connotations. Something tough, no nonsense and aggressive

    "Brexit means brexit
    Means when somebody hits a massive slide tackle and usually sends them flying and it hurts them servely.
    Brexit means brexit, I’m going to brake his legs and take his life."

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Brexit means brexit


    Here are people showing HOW to do the Brexit tackle

    https://www.tiktok.com/@kalan_lisbie/video/7311772522297543968


    lol
    Perhaps its connotations vary by area but for my son and his friends in SE London the idea of the Brexit tackle is very much taking the piss out of Brexit and the people who voted for it.
    Except you can see from that video (and there are hundreds like it) it is very much not seen as that any more. I can believe it began that way. but now it means a highly effective and extremely aggressive defensive tackle, which "cleans out" the opponent, as that TikTok influencer shows
    It started as a dangerous tackle, often performed by an overweight divorced white man who is promptly sent off much to the dismay of his teammates.

    "Brexit tackle"
    Spend twenty minutes on the internet, it isn't that anymore

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIx7N6uJ23Q

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LF6y4WAjKYQ

    You can actually see the term evolving, from pejorative to neutral to admiring, to the extent TikTok stars now teach it

    This isn't really about politics (or Brexit), this is about language. Slang often sees term evolve to mean their opposite

    See "wicked", "sick", "dope", "snide" - which all became positives. Hundreds more examples
    It's a bit of long phrase to shout out though, I don't see it catching on. Though I might use it.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,088
    edited February 14
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    WTF

    Apparently in kids' footy now there is a thing called the "Brexit Tackle", it seems to be quite brutal

    Some kids do it while shouting "Brexit means Brexit"

    Is this just fantasy? An escape from reality?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/brexit-tackle-politics-children-football

    Get with the programme. I told you all about this on here about two years ago (my son plays U15 football). The Brexit tackle is a kind of mindlessly aggressive, barely legal tackle, harking back to traditional ugly but effective English football in contrast to Continental skill and sophistication. I think it is a satirical content by the young on the belligerent stupidity of the Brexit vote.
    Except..


    It is gaining positive connotations. Something tough, no nonsense and aggressive

    "Brexit means brexit
    Means when somebody hits a massive slide tackle and usually sends them flying and it hurts them servely.
    Brexit means brexit, I’m going to brake his legs and take his life."

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Brexit means brexit


    Here are people showing HOW to do the Brexit tackle

    https://www.tiktok.com/@kalan_lisbie/video/7311772522297543968


    lol
    Perhaps its connotations vary by area but for my son and his friends in SE London the idea of the Brexit tackle is very much taking the piss out of Brexit and the people who voted for it.
    Except you can see from that video (and there are hundreds like it) it is very much not seen as that any more. I can believe it began that way. but now it means a highly effective and extremely aggressive defensive tackle, which "cleans out" the opponent, as that TikTok influencer shows
    It started as a dangerous tackle, often performed by an overweight divorced white man who is promptly sent off much to the dismay of his teammates.

    "Brexit tackle"
    Spend twenty minutes on the internet, it isn't that anymore

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIx7N6uJ23Q

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LF6y4WAjKYQ

    You can actually see the term evolving, from pejorative to neutral to admiring, to the extent TikTok stars now teach it

    This isn't really about politics (or Brexit), this is about language. Slang often sees term evolve to mean their opposite

    See "wicked", "sick", "dope", "snide" - which all became positives. Hundreds more examples
    It's a bit of long phrase to shout out though, I don't see it catching on. Though I might use it.
    I can see the word "Brexit" evolving to mean anything done with dangerous aggression

    "I will Brexit you, mate, you will look like three tins of catfood at the end"

    "That company? Brexit them. Wipe them out"

    "I gave him the full Brexit, he won't walk again"

    The syllables have the right quality of emphasis and snappiness, the plosive consonants, the middle X
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,355
    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Good morning

    Labour down 5% on this poll

    Tomorrow's by elections should show if this is happening or if it is all smoke and mirrors

    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1757665864696971522?t=zfbTQL3aas6Qcnfmr03h_w&s=19

    Most of that poll was done before Ali-gate.
    Maybe a reaction to the green u-turn . Certainly it’s been a bad week for Labour and not what you want in the run up to the by-elections .

    Perhaps the postal votes might help them seeing as most would have been in before things went south.
    Sky reporting a third labour politician has been spoken to

    https://news.sky.com/story/third-labour-politician-spoken-to-over-meeting-at-centre-of-antisemitism-row-13071272
    It wouldn't surprise me if dozens of Labur MPs have said stuff like this. A potential catastrophe
    Someone yesterday ( @theProle ?) likened the current situation to a scene from "the Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe" in which the White Queen – looking superficially presentable – is seen to be backed by an absolute army of ogres, misfits and crazies. Admittedly I have neither read the book nor seen the film so the analogy was slightly lost on me. But still, I can picture it. And the number of scary luncatics in the ranks behind Starmer is starting to look quite scary.
    Of course, the Tories also have a cast of peculiars too. But their misfits are of a more traditional bent – the not-really-competent-of-effective types, the rules-don’t-really-apply-to-me types. Whereas a good half of the Labour Party appear to be living in a weird teenage twitter rabbithole which has driven them genuinely insane.
    "a good half of the Labour Party"

    I'll be kind and put this down to artistic licence.
    I wonder how the Tories score on the same metric? Especially after the Johnsonian purges. To describe some of the current menagerie as merely 'traditional' is, erm, interesting.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,344
    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    WTF

    Apparently in kids' footy now there is a thing called the "Brexit Tackle", it seems to be quite brutal

    Some kids do it while shouting "Brexit means Brexit"

    Is this just fantasy? An escape from reality?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/brexit-tackle-politics-children-football

    Get with the programme. I told you all about this on here about two years ago (my son plays U15 football). The Brexit tackle is a kind of mindlessly aggressive, barely legal tackle, harking back to traditional ugly but effective English football in contrast to Continental skill and sophistication. I think it is a satirical content by the young on the belligerent stupidity of the Brexit vote.
    Except..


    It is gaining positive connotations. Something tough, no nonsense and aggressive

    "Brexit means brexit
    Means when somebody hits a massive slide tackle and usually sends them flying and it hurts them servely.
    Brexit means brexit, I’m going to brake his legs and take his life."

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Brexit means brexit


    Here are people showing HOW to do the Brexit tackle

    https://www.tiktok.com/@kalan_lisbie/video/7311772522297543968


    lol
    Perhaps its connotations vary by area but for my son and his friends in SE London the idea of the Brexit tackle is very much taking the piss out of Brexit and the people who voted for it.
    Except you can see from that video (and there are hundreds like it) it is very much not seen as that any more. I can believe it began that way. but now it means a highly effective and extremely aggressive defensive tackle, which "cleans out" the opponent, as that TikTok influencer shows
    It started as a dangerous tackle, often performed by an overweight divorced white man who is promptly sent off much to the dismay of his teammates.

    "Brexit tackle"
    Spend twenty minutes on the internet, it isn't that anymore

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIx7N6uJ23Q

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LF6y4WAjKYQ

    You can actually see the term evolving, from pejorative to neutral to admiring, to the extent TikTok stars now teach it

    This isn't really about politics (or Brexit), this is about language. Slang often sees term evolve to mean their opposite

    See "wicked", "sick", "dope", "snide" - which all became positives. Hundreds more examples
    It's a bit of long phrase to shout out though, I don't see it catching on. Though I might use it.
    I can see the word "Brexit" evolving to mean anything done with dangerous aggression

    "I will Brexit you, mate, you will be look like three tins of catfood at the end"

    "That company? Brexit them. Wipe them out"

    "I gave him the full Brexit, he won't walk again"

    The syllables have the right quality of emphasis and snappiness, the plosive consonants, the middle X
    Full English Brexit?
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,948
    viewcode said:

    rkrkrk said:

    My theory, for which I have little evidence (and which coincides with what i wish to be true), is that Dems don't want Biden to run again if asked in polls. He is too old etc.

    But when it comes to an actual election, they are still Dems, so of course they will vote for Biden/Dems.

    That might be true. As Professor Sir John Curtice once said (and I was in the room when he said it, nah-nah-nah-nah-nah), polls between elections are more a show of support for the policies of the incumbent. They become a serious assessment of electoral intent when the election is called. They start to give a picture about a year out but only firm up around three months out (or when the election is called), and only become solid in the last week. It's possible for a surprise on the day, but IMHO not often.

    This makes political betting bloody difficult... :(
    On the contrary, it's helpful for betting if true because a lot of punters blindly follow the polls.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,598
    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    WTF

    Apparently in kids' footy now there is a thing called the "Brexit Tackle", it seems to be quite brutal

    Some kids do it while shouting "Brexit means Brexit"

    Is this just fantasy? An escape from reality?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/brexit-tackle-politics-children-football

    Get with the programme. I told you all about this on here about two years ago (my son plays U15 football). The Brexit tackle is a kind of mindlessly aggressive, barely legal tackle, harking back to traditional ugly but effective English football in contrast to Continental skill and sophistication. I think it is a satirical content by the young on the belligerent stupidity of the Brexit vote.
    Except..


    It is gaining positive connotations. Something tough, no nonsense and aggressive

    "Brexit means brexit
    Means when somebody hits a massive slide tackle and usually sends them flying and it hurts them servely.
    Brexit means brexit, I’m going to brake his legs and take his life."

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Brexit means brexit


    Here are people showing HOW to do the Brexit tackle

    https://www.tiktok.com/@kalan_lisbie/video/7311772522297543968


    lol
    Perhaps its connotations vary by area but for my son and his friends in SE London the idea of the Brexit tackle is very much taking the piss out of Brexit and the people who voted for it.
    Except you can see from that video (and there are hundreds like it) it is very much not seen as that any more. I can believe it began that way. but now it means a highly effective and extremely aggressive defensive tackle, which "cleans out" the opponent, as that TikTok influencer shows
    It started as a dangerous tackle, often performed by an overweight divorced white man who is promptly sent off much to the dismay of his teammates.

    "Brexit tackle"
    Spend twenty minutes on the internet, it isn't that anymore

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIx7N6uJ23Q

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LF6y4WAjKYQ

    You can actually see the term evolving, from pejorative to neutral to admiring, to the extent TikTok stars now teach it

    This isn't really about politics (or Brexit), this is about language. Slang often sees term evolve to mean their opposite

    See "wicked", "sick", "dope", "snide" - which all became positives. Hundreds more examples
    It's a bit of long phrase to shout out though, I don't see it catching on. Though I might use it.
    I can see the word "Brexit" evolving to mean anything done with dangerous aggression

    "I will Brexit you, mate, you will look like three tins of catfood at the end"

    "That company? Brexit them. Wipe them out"

    "I gave him the full Brexit, he won't walk again"

    The syllables have the right quality of emphasis and snappiness, the plosive consonants, the middle X
    We were sat there, having what I thought was a nice chat, when suddenly he went all Brexit.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,521
    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Why did no one tell me about the Apple Series FOR ALL MANKIND

    It's fantastic. Admittedly, I have only watched one episode, but it is brilliant

    The bait and switch on the moon landing is GENIUS

    I've seen 3 episodes, and although it's well done, I'm beginning to suspect that after an intriguing opening it's descending into a slow-moving soap opera that they will milk for as many episodes as they can in the typical way. So I'm probably not going any further unless I hear different.

    If you're on Apple + I can highly recommend Shrinking featuring a great turn by Harrison Ford as a grumpy old man.
    Ach. dammit

    That is my big fear

    So many series now do this. Start with great promise, then fade away HORRIBLY

    I have had to abandon three dramas in recent months for this reason. GRRR
    Yes, it's very annoying. And sometimes the opposite happens - eg I was still enjoying The Path after 3 seasons (though it had got a bit slushy), and they didn't make any more despite the story clearly being unfinished.

    I would say For All Mankind is still entertaining after 3 episodes but 7 seasons are planned, and I don't want to get hooked into having to know what happens because it's too much of a time commitment for me...
    Rotten Tomatoes - which is modestly reliable - insists it contnues well into seasons 2 and 3. I shall persist for now

    The worst of the recent bunch was Money Heist, which started cleverly and elegantly, but described a perfect smooth arc of descent into inanity, plot holes, non sequiturs, stupid characters and tedious distractions

    Monarch: Legacy of Monsters immediately went from quite good in episode 1 to SHITE by ep 3, and stayed there
    Let us know how it goes!

    It took me 2 and a half seasons to give up on Mad Men.

    I've never seen an episode of Lost, or The Crown, or Game of Thrones (probably too violent for me), or Eastenders. Maybe I am commitment-phobic.

    Never heard of Monarch: Legacy of Monsters. I saw Money Heist advertised - it looked interesting but my wife can't be bothered with subtitles, and I refuse to watch anything dubbed (if it was even available) so didn't bother. Won't now.
    Mad Men was great, until about season 4 or 5 (most dramas collapse by seasons 4 or 5, if they get that far - it is an actual rule, with very few exceptions)

    The first season of the Crown is superb, second jolly good, then increasingly bad

    Game of Thrones is sui generis. I loved it, mostly, even while finding the plot absurdly complex and difficult to comprehend, it had that knack that, just when you felt like abandoning it for its labyrinthine complexity, it would have a brilliant scene with clever lines, or a spectacular battle sequence, or just the midget being funny

    Great actors helped; also good characterisation

    The classic Korean drama only has one series; typically sixteen episodes (though it can be as much as fifty one hour long episodes).
    It's only since Netflixification that they started doing more.

  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,088
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    WTF

    Apparently in kids' footy now there is a thing called the "Brexit Tackle", it seems to be quite brutal

    Some kids do it while shouting "Brexit means Brexit"

    Is this just fantasy? An escape from reality?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/brexit-tackle-politics-children-football

    Get with the programme. I told you all about this on here about two years ago (my son plays U15 football). The Brexit tackle is a kind of mindlessly aggressive, barely legal tackle, harking back to traditional ugly but effective English football in contrast to Continental skill and sophistication. I think it is a satirical content by the young on the belligerent stupidity of the Brexit vote.
    Except..


    It is gaining positive connotations. Something tough, no nonsense and aggressive

    "Brexit means brexit
    Means when somebody hits a massive slide tackle and usually sends them flying and it hurts them servely.
    Brexit means brexit, I’m going to brake his legs and take his life."

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Brexit means brexit


    Here are people showing HOW to do the Brexit tackle

    https://www.tiktok.com/@kalan_lisbie/video/7311772522297543968


    lol
    Perhaps its connotations vary by area but for my son and his friends in SE London the idea of the Brexit tackle is very much taking the piss out of Brexit and the people who voted for it.
    Except you can see from that video (and there are hundreds like it) it is very much not seen as that any more. I can believe it began that way. but now it means a highly effective and extremely aggressive defensive tackle, which "cleans out" the opponent, as that TikTok influencer shows
    It started as a dangerous tackle, often performed by an overweight divorced white man who is promptly sent off much to the dismay of his teammates.

    "Brexit tackle"
    Spend twenty minutes on the internet, it isn't that anymore

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIx7N6uJ23Q

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LF6y4WAjKYQ

    You can actually see the term evolving, from pejorative to neutral to admiring, to the extent TikTok stars now teach it

    This isn't really about politics (or Brexit), this is about language. Slang often sees term evolve to mean their opposite

    See "wicked", "sick", "dope", "snide" - which all became positives. Hundreds more examples
    It's a bit of long phrase to shout out though, I don't see it catching on. Though I might use it.
    I can see the word "Brexit" evolving to mean anything done with dangerous aggression
    "I will Brexit you, mate, you will look like three tins of catfood at the end"

    "That company? Brexit them. Wipe them out"

    "I gave him the full Brexit, he won't walk again"

    The syllables have the right quality of emphasis and snappiness, the plosive consonants, the middle X
    We were sat there, having what I thought was a nice chat, when suddenly he went all Brexit.
    Yes, it will have that sense too. Something mad - admirable if you want aggression- disoncerting over tea and scones
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,355

    PJH said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Inflation stays at 4%

    *brushes fingernails quietly*

    Next up, did the UK really suffer a technical recession in Q4 and Q1? I think not.
    It's easy to get carried away by the technical details and for the government to pop the champagne and slap each other on the back for a job well done in lowering inflation. Out in the real world, mortgages are as costly and as unaffordable as they've ever been and hundreds of thousands of mortgage holders have still yet to remortgage onto much higher rates. Energy bills are still crippling, food still going up. Mortgage arrears are at their highest rate since the GFC. Business insolvency ditto. It's grim out there
    The inflation figures don't lie, but they ain't telling the truth either.
    Oh I agree with all of that. Real wages are rising by more than 2% a year on average now but that does not come close to offsetting the additional costs borne by those with mortgages in particular. Many people are struggling and 4% inflation is not great. Some lenders are edging their mortgage offers back up again now on the assumption that base rates are going to fall more slowly than once thought. That is very much the way I see it, particularly if I am right that a technical recession is avoided.
    Don't forget that about a year ago, inflation was 11% and pay rises were at best 5-6%; so if you're working for a typical employer such as mine this year offering about 1-2% above inflation it will take about another 3 years or so to close that gap before people start feeling better than slightly less badly off compared to before.
    In reality people were on average about 3% worse off for a year and nearly half of that has already been recovered.

    But what is forgotten is how much real pay increased in 2021.

    From the ONS:

    Total pay (real):

    Jan-Mar 2020 +0.5%
    Apr-Jun 2020 -1.8%
    Jul-Sep 2020 +0.7%
    Oct-Dec 2020 +3.8%
    Jan-Mar 2021 +3.2%
    Apr-Jun 2021 +6.8%
    Jul-Sep 2021 +3.1%
    Oct-Dec 2021 +0.2%
    Jan-Mar 2022 +1.4%
    Apr-Jun 2022 -2.4%
    Jul-Sep 2022 -2.7%
    Oct-Dec 2022 -2.8%
    Jan-Mar 2023 -2.6%
    Apr-Jun 2023 +0.7%
    Jul-Sep 2023 +1.4%
    Oct-Dec 2023 +1.4%

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/timeseries/a3ww/lms

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/latest

    There's also the extra handouts people received, the £400 energy subsidy and the month's council tax rebate plus much more for the poor and oldies.
    How much of that pay inflation gets through to take home pay for a family renting and on universal credit? Posters on here have calculated marginal tax rates of 70%+ at that end of the spectrum and there are occassional instances where extra pay equals less income.

    Much of the pay inflation will have been at and just above the NMW rates by design, a lot of the rest is still at the elite level. Real median earnings are rising much slower than real average earnings.

    https://ifs.org.uk/articles/pay-growth-londons-top-earners-has-driven-geographical-inequality-mean-earnings#:~:text=Strong pay growth in finance,have seen little pay growth.

    So low earners see most of the rises taken up by the benefits traps and middle earners are seeing smaller rises combined with being most likely to be hit on mortgage rates or private sector rent increases.

    Sure those are average numbers and everyone's an individual.

    And there's many millions who have done worse than the average.

    But there's also many millions who have done better than the average.

    And the average itself is positive despite four years of economic turmoil.

    There seems to be a widespread and bizarre insistence that everyone is worse off and heading to the poor house.

    And that's a denial of reality equal to insisting that everyone is doing great.

    From apprentices on over £25k to tradesmen earning £85k to GenXs discussing their retirement plans (I've heard 58, 60, 63 mentioned recently) to oldies booking their cruises there are lots of people who have never been as well off.

    Sure there are a wide range of individual circumstances.

    Electorally though I suspect what tends to happen is:

    People who are better off than expected vote for the party they most identify with.
    People who are worse off than expected vote for the opposition.

    So aggregate bad news is not balanced out electorally by the wide range of circumstances.
    Another group:

    People who think they are worse off vote according to who they blame.

    That benefitted the Conservatives in 2015.

    But now, Jeremy Hunt aside, they seem to have given up even making an economic case.

    I suspect that because unemployment was high during the Thatcher government that many Conservatives actually think that low unemployment is a bad thing.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/14/uk-households-face-battle-to-regain-former-living-standards-even-if-inflation-eases

    This is interesting, with comments suich as

    'Good news came from the food industry, where inflation fell from December to January, but the annual rate remains high at 7% and food and non-alcoholic beverage prices are about 25% higher than they were two years ago, the Office for National Statistics said.

    Worse is the price of electricity, gas, and other fuels. Inflation for this category has fallen by 18% since its peak in January 2023. However, prices last month were 89% higher than they were in January 2021.

    These are dramatic increases in the cost of living. So it is no wonder the boss of the TUC, Paul Nowak, is hopping mad about any talk of lower inflation somehow meaning the problem has gone away for most people.'
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,505
    nico679 said:

    So some want the councilors suspended even if they said bugger all about Israel.

    This is just ridiculous.

    I mean, where’s it going to end?
    Then they came for those who served under notorious Cossack pogromist & jam maker Corbyn and didn’t speak up.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,355
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    WTF

    Apparently in kids' footy now there is a thing called the "Brexit Tackle", it seems to be quite brutal

    Some kids do it while shouting "Brexit means Brexit"

    Is this just fantasy? An escape from reality?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/brexit-tackle-politics-children-football

    Get with the programme. I told you all about this on here about two years ago (my son plays U15 football). The Brexit tackle is a kind of mindlessly aggressive, barely legal tackle, harking back to traditional ugly but effective English football in contrast to Continental skill and sophistication. I think it is a satirical content by the young on the belligerent stupidity of the Brexit vote.
    Except..


    It is gaining positive connotations. Something tough, no nonsense and aggressive

    "Brexit means brexit
    Means when somebody hits a massive slide tackle and usually sends them flying and it hurts them servely.
    Brexit means brexit, I’m going to brake his legs and take his life."

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Brexit means brexit


    Here are people showing HOW to do the Brexit tackle

    https://www.tiktok.com/@kalan_lisbie/video/7311772522297543968


    lol
    Perhaps its connotations vary by area but for my son and his friends in SE London the idea of the Brexit tackle is very much taking the piss out of Brexit and the people who voted for it.
    Except you can see from that video (and there are hundreds like it) it is very much not seen as that any more. I can believe it began that way. but now it means a highly effective and extremely aggressive defensive tackle, which "cleans out" the opponent, as that TikTok influencer shows
    It started as a dangerous tackle, often performed by an overweight divorced white man who is promptly sent off much to the dismay of his teammates.

    "Brexit tackle"
    Spend twenty minutes on the internet, it isn't that anymore

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIx7N6uJ23Q

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LF6y4WAjKYQ

    You can actually see the term evolving, from pejorative to neutral to admiring, to the extent TikTok stars now teach it

    This isn't really about politics (or Brexit), this is about language. Slang often sees term evolve to mean their opposite

    See "wicked", "sick", "dope", "snide" - which all became positives. Hundreds more examples
    It's a bit of long phrase to shout out though, I don't see it catching on. Though I might use it.
    I can see the word "Brexit" evolving to mean anything done with dangerous aggression

    "I will Brexit you, mate, you will look like three tins of catfood at the end"

    "That company? Brexit them. Wipe them out"

    "I gave him the full Brexit, he won't walk again"

    The syllables have the right quality of emphasis and snappiness, the plosive consonants, the middle X
    We were sat there, having what I thought was a nice chat, when suddenly he went all Brexit.
    Radio Rental is perhaps obsolete now even for people of my generation. So very helpful to have a more modern replacement.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,521
    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    WTF

    Apparently in kids' footy now there is a thing called the "Brexit Tackle", it seems to be quite brutal

    Some kids do it while shouting "Brexit means Brexit"

    Is this just fantasy? An escape from reality?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/brexit-tackle-politics-children-football

    Get with the programme. I told you all about this on here about two years ago (my son plays U15 football). The Brexit tackle is a kind of mindlessly aggressive, barely legal tackle, harking back to traditional ugly but effective English football in contrast to Continental skill and sophistication. I think it is a satirical content by the young on the belligerent stupidity of the Brexit vote.
    Except..


    It is gaining positive connotations. Something tough, no nonsense and aggressive

    "Brexit means brexit
    Means when somebody hits a massive slide tackle and usually sends them flying and it hurts them servely.
    Brexit means brexit, I’m going to brake his legs and take his life."

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Brexit means brexit


    Here are people showing HOW to do the Brexit tackle

    https://www.tiktok.com/@kalan_lisbie/video/7311772522297543968


    lol
    Perhaps its connotations vary by area but for my son and his friends in SE London the idea of the Brexit tackle is very much taking the piss out of Brexit and the people who voted for it.
    Except you can see from that video (and there are hundreds like it) it is very much not seen as that any more. I can believe it began that way. but now it means a highly effective and extremely aggressive defensive tackle, which "cleans out" the opponent, as that TikTok influencer shows
    It started as a dangerous tackle, often performed by an overweight divorced white man who is promptly sent off much to the dismay of his teammates.

    "Brexit tackle"
    Spend twenty minutes on the internet, it isn't that anymore

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIx7N6uJ23Q

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LF6y4WAjKYQ

    You can actually see the term evolving, from pejorative to neutral to admiring, to the extent TikTok stars now teach it

    This isn't really about politics (or Brexit), this is about language. Slang often sees term evolve to mean their opposite

    See "wicked", "sick", "dope", "snide" - which all became positives. Hundreds more examples
    It's a bit of long phrase to shout out though, I don't see it catching on. Though I might use it.
    I can see the word "Brexit" evolving to mean anything done with dangerous aggression

    "I will Brexit you, mate, you will look like three tins of catfood at the end"

    "That company? Brexit them. Wipe them out"

    "I gave him the full Brexit, he won't walk again"

    The syllables have the right quality of emphasis and snappiness, the plosive consonants, the middle X
    You want Brexiting, you Kent ?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,505
    edited February 14
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    WTF

    Apparently in kids' footy now there is a thing called the "Brexit Tackle", it seems to be quite brutal

    Some kids do it while shouting "Brexit means Brexit"

    Is this just fantasy? An escape from reality?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/brexit-tackle-politics-children-football

    Get with the programme. I told you all about this on here about two years ago (my son plays U15 football). The Brexit tackle is a kind of mindlessly aggressive, barely legal tackle, harking back to traditional ugly but effective English football in contrast to Continental skill and sophistication. I think it is a satirical content by the young on the belligerent stupidity of the Brexit vote.
    Except..


    It is gaining positive connotations. Something tough, no nonsense and aggressive

    "Brexit means brexit
    Means when somebody hits a massive slide tackle and usually sends them flying and it hurts them servely.
    Brexit means brexit, I’m going to brake his legs and take his life."

    https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Brexit means brexit


    Here are people showing HOW to do the Brexit tackle

    https://www.tiktok.com/@kalan_lisbie/video/7311772522297543968


    lol
    Perhaps its connotations vary by area but for my son and his friends in SE London the idea of the Brexit tackle is very much taking the piss out of Brexit and the people who voted for it.
    Except you can see from that video (and there are hundreds like it) it is very much not seen as that any more. I can believe it began that way. but now it means a highly effective and extremely aggressive defensive tackle, which "cleans out" the opponent, as that TikTok influencer shows
    It started as a dangerous tackle, often performed by an overweight divorced white man who is promptly sent off much to the dismay of his teammates.

    "Brexit tackle"
    Spend twenty minutes on the internet, it isn't that anymore

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIx7N6uJ23Q

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LF6y4WAjKYQ

    You can actually see the term evolving, from pejorative to neutral to admiring, to the extent TikTok stars now teach it

    This isn't really about politics (or Brexit), this is about language. Slang often sees term evolve to mean their opposite

    See "wicked", "sick", "dope", "snide" - which all became positives. Hundreds more examples
    It's a bit of long phrase to shout out though, I don't see it catching on. Though I might use it.
    I can see the word "Brexit" evolving to mean anything done with dangerous aggression

    "I will Brexit you, mate, you will look like three tins of catfood at the end"

    "That company? Brexit them. Wipe them out"

    "I gave him the full Brexit, he won't walk again"

    The syllables have the right quality of emphasis and snappiness, the plosive consonants, the middle X
    We were sat there, having what I thought was a nice chat, when suddenly he went all Brexit.
    He just won’t stop Brexitting.
    He’s full of Brexit.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,344
    What's happened since Biden was described as "a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory" in the special counsel's report?

    So far only 2 pollsters seem to have before and after national polling:

    Ipsos 9-12th Feb Trump 3 ahead
    Ipsos Jan 22-24th Jan Trump 6 ahead

    Morning Consult 9th-11th Feb Trump 1 ahead
    Morning Consult 6th-8th Feb Trump 4 ahead

    So a 3 percent movement to Biden as a result of the report! Make sense - I would rather vote for "a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory" than Trump.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,598
    Carnyx said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Good morning

    Labour down 5% on this poll

    Tomorrow's by elections should show if this is happening or if it is all smoke and mirrors

    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1757665864696971522?t=zfbTQL3aas6Qcnfmr03h_w&s=19

    Most of that poll was done before Ali-gate.
    Maybe a reaction to the green u-turn . Certainly it’s been a bad week for Labour and not what you want in the run up to the by-elections .

    Perhaps the postal votes might help them seeing as most would have been in before things went south.
    Sky reporting a third labour politician has been spoken to

    https://news.sky.com/story/third-labour-politician-spoken-to-over-meeting-at-centre-of-antisemitism-row-13071272
    It wouldn't surprise me if dozens of Labur MPs have said stuff like this. A potential catastrophe
    Someone yesterday ( @theProle ?) likened the current situation to a scene from "the Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe" in which the White Queen – looking superficially presentable – is seen to be backed by an absolute army of ogres, misfits and crazies. Admittedly I have neither read the book nor seen the film so the analogy was slightly lost on me. But still, I can picture it. And the number of scary luncatics in the ranks behind Starmer is starting to look quite scary.
    Of course, the Tories also have a cast of peculiars too. But their misfits are of a more traditional bent – the not-really-competent-of-effective types, the rules-don’t-really-apply-to-me types. Whereas a good half of the Labour Party appear to be living in a weird teenage twitter rabbithole which has driven them genuinely insane.
    "a good half of the Labour Party"

    I'll be kind and put this down to artistic licence.
    I wonder how the Tories score on the same metric? Especially after the Johnsonian purges. To describe some of the current menagerie as merely 'traditional' is, erm, interesting.
    There's some rotten fruit in that basket, that's for sure. To survive under Johnson you had to jettison integrity and judgement on the off chance you were encumbered with them.

    Labour? There'll be an attempt to paint them as an unreformed rabble wearing a sensible 'Sir Keir' mask of convenience, but it's really not the case. He's got a strong grip on the party.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,027
    edited February 14
    I see a 2nd Poll in last 24hrs falls into the SKS FANS PLEASE EXPLAIN category

  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,760
    kle4 said:

    A clearer a picture of how the two suspended Labour candidates came to say what they said, and how it got out - and it’s very bad news for Starmer as this isn’t a typical open and shut case of Labour anti semitism, it’s beginning to point to Starmer and his top team hastily over reacting, wilting under media pressure - which is cardinal sin for political leaders in my book.

    The two banned men were meeting a group of councillors intending to quit Labour , they were trying to placate those furious at Starmer for taking a staunch pro Israel position. It’s almost certain this has been leaked to Labours enemies to hurt Labour leadership, by one of those there who stormed off out the party because Starmer wasn’t attacking Israel or defending Hamas enough for their liking.

    Ali seems particularly hard done here by as what he said seemed to everyone “completely out of character for him” as in recent years Ali has been “an ally to the Jewish community, having set up Labour groups such as Muslims Against Antisemitism.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/13/grassroots-labour-meeting-party-turmoil-suspended-candidates-azhar-ali-graham-jones

    They said some crazy conspiracy things about Egypt and US warning Israel so why didn’t Israel government act, and clearly offensive towards Israel government and state of Israel. But what are we all pointing to here from what’s in public domain that is clearly antisemitic?

    I don't really see how Ali has been hard done by. If it was out of character for him but he acted like a bigot for political advantage (either because the audience were bigots or for some reason he thought being one would appeal to them) that hardly speaks well of him. You have slid over why the conspiracy theory exists and its a pretty obvious reason.

    Was there no way to placate the audience without using those tropes and those theories? It's pretty easy to criticise Starmers stance without doing so.

    It's also weird to seek to defend someone by saying its out of character, but also still claim it was no big deal, just conspiracy theories.

    The more likely explanation is that he meant what he said - you can generally trust people when they did not realise their remarks would be widely circulated. More than we can trust their public actions, which private ones can reveal to probably be calculating or insincere.
    Downgraded to Bigotry then, as you call it. Well at least you agree, there weren’t any antisemitism remarks as it’s been wrongly reported as, and opponents try to claim.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,268
    Carnyx said:

    PJH said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Inflation stays at 4%

    *brushes fingernails quietly*

    Next up, did the UK really suffer a technical recession in Q4 and Q1? I think not.
    It's easy to get carried away by the technical details and for the government to pop the champagne and slap each other on the back for a job well done in lowering inflation. Out in the real world, mortgages are as costly and as unaffordable as they've ever been and hundreds of thousands of mortgage holders have still yet to remortgage onto much higher rates. Energy bills are still crippling, food still going up. Mortgage arrears are at their highest rate since the GFC. Business insolvency ditto. It's grim out there
    The inflation figures don't lie, but they ain't telling the truth either.
    Oh I agree with all of that. Real wages are rising by more than 2% a year on average now but that does not come close to offsetting the additional costs borne by those with mortgages in particular. Many people are struggling and 4% inflation is not great. Some lenders are edging their mortgage offers back up again now on the assumption that base rates are going to fall more slowly than once thought. That is very much the way I see it, particularly if I am right that a technical recession is avoided.
    Don't forget that about a year ago, inflation was 11% and pay rises were at best 5-6%; so if you're working for a typical employer such as mine this year offering about 1-2% above inflation it will take about another 3 years or so to close that gap before people start feeling better than slightly less badly off compared to before.
    In reality people were on average about 3% worse off for a year and nearly half of that has already been recovered.

    But what is forgotten is how much real pay increased in 2021.

    From the ONS:

    Total pay (real):

    Jan-Mar 2020 +0.5%
    Apr-Jun 2020 -1.8%
    Jul-Sep 2020 +0.7%
    Oct-Dec 2020 +3.8%
    Jan-Mar 2021 +3.2%
    Apr-Jun 2021 +6.8%
    Jul-Sep 2021 +3.1%
    Oct-Dec 2021 +0.2%
    Jan-Mar 2022 +1.4%
    Apr-Jun 2022 -2.4%
    Jul-Sep 2022 -2.7%
    Oct-Dec 2022 -2.8%
    Jan-Mar 2023 -2.6%
    Apr-Jun 2023 +0.7%
    Jul-Sep 2023 +1.4%
    Oct-Dec 2023 +1.4%

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/timeseries/a3ww/lms

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/latest

    There's also the extra handouts people received, the £400 energy subsidy and the month's council tax rebate plus much more for the poor and oldies.
    How much of that pay inflation gets through to take home pay for a family renting and on universal credit? Posters on here have calculated marginal tax rates of 70%+ at that end of the spectrum and there are occassional instances where extra pay equals less income.

    Much of the pay inflation will have been at and just above the NMW rates by design, a lot of the rest is still at the elite level. Real median earnings are rising much slower than real average earnings.

    https://ifs.org.uk/articles/pay-growth-londons-top-earners-has-driven-geographical-inequality-mean-earnings#:~:text=Strong pay growth in finance,have seen little pay growth.

    So low earners see most of the rises taken up by the benefits traps and middle earners are seeing smaller rises combined with being most likely to be hit on mortgage rates or private sector rent increases.

    Sure those are average numbers and everyone's an individual.

    And there's many millions who have done worse than the average.

    But there's also many millions who have done better than the average.

    And the average itself is positive despite four years of economic turmoil.

    There seems to be a widespread and bizarre insistence that everyone is worse off and heading to the poor house.

    And that's a denial of reality equal to insisting that everyone is doing great.

    From apprentices on over £25k to tradesmen earning £85k to GenXs discussing their retirement plans (I've heard 58, 60, 63 mentioned recently) to oldies booking their cruises there are lots of people who have never been as well off.

    Sure there are a wide range of individual circumstances.

    Electorally though I suspect what tends to happen is:

    People who are better off than expected vote for the party they most identify with.
    People who are worse off than expected vote for the opposition.

    So aggregate bad news is not balanced out electorally by the wide range of circumstances.
    Another group:

    People who think they are worse off vote according to who they blame.

    That benefitted the Conservatives in 2015.

    But now, Jeremy Hunt aside, they seem to have given up even making an economic case.

    I suspect that because unemployment was high during the Thatcher government that many Conservatives actually think that low unemployment is a bad thing.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/14/uk-households-face-battle-to-regain-former-living-standards-even-if-inflation-eases

    This is interesting, with comments suich as

    'Good news came from the food industry, where inflation fell from December to January, but the annual rate remains high at 7% and food and non-alcoholic beverage prices are about 25% higher than they were two years ago, the Office for National Statistics said.

    Worse is the price of electricity, gas, and other fuels. Inflation for this category has fallen by 18% since its peak in January 2023. However, prices last month were 89% higher than they were in January 2021.

    These are dramatic increases in the cost of living. So it is no wonder the boss of the TUC, Paul Nowak, is hopping mad about any talk of lower inflation somehow meaning the problem has gone away for most people.'
    Cumulative inflation will further sift the various cohorts into their voting clusters.

    Own outright, on the state pension? Conservative.
    Mortgage? Labour, with age a secondary variable.
    Renting? Labour.

    These clusters were chopped up by Brexit, but like a sea sponge have now fully re-formed. Differential turnout is the only real unknown left if you are trying to make some money betting on it.
  • Options
    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,825
    There's the possibility that polls haven't picked up the differential death rates of Democrats and Republicans from covid and covid-associated conditions.

    Since the MAGA/GOP crowd went antivaxxer, the death rate differential has become noticeable: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w30512/w30512.pdf

    It's been speculated that this affected the mid-terms: https://www.vice.com/en/article/v7vjx8/almost-twice-as-many-republicans-died-from-covid-before-the-midterms-than-democrats
This discussion has been closed.