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What to read in to this? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,916
edited March 12 in General
What to read in to this? – politicalbetting.com

.@SimonWDC on Democrats flipping George Santos’ seat: Something dramatic and historic is happening. Democrats keep over performing expectations, and Republicans keep struggling. It's showing up in every kind of race, all over the country pic.twitter.com/HOQFKktST8

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    Has anyone ever seen George Santos and Alan Carr in the same room?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,015
    Inflation stays at 4%
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,324
    Usual caveats apply:

    "russian big landing ship «Caesar Kunikov» (BDK-64) has been hit, burned and is sinking in the Black Sea."

    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757654903567081729

    A ship built in Poland:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ship_Caesar_Kunikov
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,014
    edited February 14
    On topic - that's a much bigger win than anyone was expecting, I think. Something of a slap for Republicans.

    But given the complex dynamics at play, I'd be wary of reading too much into a Dem win. A Republican win would have been significant because it would suggest swing voters really are nervous about the Dems despite everything. But less so the other way.
  • Options
    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,095

    Usual caveats apply:

    "russian big landing ship «Caesar Kunikov» (BDK-64) has been hit, burned and is sinking in the Black Sea."

    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757654903567081729

    A ship built in Poland:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ship_Caesar_Kunikov

    Named after HSU Major Tsezar Kunikov who was killed on the same day in 1943. Top trolling, if deliberate.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,539
    edited February 14
    Just to confirm that the (almost) final result (97% counted) is:

    Suozzi (Dem) - 53.9%
    Pilip (Rep) - 46.1%

    Biden apparently won the District by 8% in 2020 so it's bang in line with that.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,539
    edited February 14
    Also worth noting that this District will not be fought again in November 2024 - as there will be boundary changes.

    Bipartisan commission must put forward new maps by the end of this month. The New York legislature (Dem controlled) will then vote whether to approve them.

    If legislature rejects, legislature then draws its own maps.

    So essentially there are going to be new maps which will be more Dem friendly.
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701
    The Democrats just keep on outperforming the polls in congressional and state elections. It’s pretty clear the polling model in the US is broken. I’m not sure whether that’s down to sampling methodologies, partisan polling or desire by the media to create a horse race. But it’s real.

    I still cannot see Trump winning in November.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,412

    Usual caveats apply:

    "russian big landing ship «Caesar Kunikov» (BDK-64) has been hit, burned and is sinking in the Black Sea."

    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757654903567081729

    A ship built in Poland:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ship_Caesar_Kunikov

    Named after HSU Major Tsezar Kunikov who was killed on the same day in 1943. Top trolling, if deliberate.
    These smoking related accidents are really getting out of hand.
  • Options
    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,095
    Pulpstar said:

    Inflation stays at 4%

    Prices were rising about 1% per month in Feb-May last year. So hard not to see a fall in the annual rate over the spring.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,539
    Core inflation unchanged at 5.1%.

    This excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,462

    Pulpstar said:

    Inflation stays at 4%

    Prices were rising about 1% per month in Feb-May last year. So hard not to see a fall in the annual rate over the spring.
    It should fall below 2% in Q2 owing to energy prices. Although that will probably be temporary.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,014
    rkrkrk said:

    My theory, for which I have little evidence (and which coincides with what i wish to be true), is that Dems don't want Biden to run again if asked in polls. He is too old etc.

    But when it comes to an actual election, they are still Dems, so of course they will vote for Biden/Dems.

    The more important question though is, will independents?

    Instinct still says yes. They are unenthused by Biden but everything I'm seeing suggests Trump is toxic to them. Every poll, every election, every response they are giving to policy surveys.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,014

    Usual caveats apply:

    "russian big landing ship «Caesar Kunikov» (BDK-64) has been hit, burned and is sinking in the Black Sea."

    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757654903567081729

    A ship built in Poland:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ship_Caesar_Kunikov

    Named after HSU Major Tsezar Kunikov who was killed on the same day in 1943. Top trolling, if deliberate.
    These smoking related accidents are really getting out of hand.
    Not so much Lucky Strike as a tragedy of Hamlet proportions.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,714
    edited February 14

    Usual caveats apply:

    "russian big landing ship «Caesar Kunikov» (BDK-64) has been hit, burned and is sinking in the Black Sea."

    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757654903567081729

    A ship built in Poland:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ship_Caesar_Kunikov

    Named after HSU Major Tsezar Kunikov who was killed on the same day in 1943. Top trolling, if deliberate.
    These smoking related accidents are really getting out of hand.
    Look at what a tank can do to an ammo dump:
    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1757561369212162209?s=12

    Or what a little quadcopter hobby drone carrying a grenade, can do to one of those fancy new T-90 tanks:
    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1757201451342827829?s=12

    The less said about what a few little drone boats can do to the once-mighty Russian Navy, the better. Happy Valentine’s Day Putin, with love from Ukraine & friends. :love::heart:
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,536
    Pulpstar said:

    Inflation stays at 4%

    *brushes fingernails quietly*

    Next up, did the UK really suffer a technical recession in Q4 and Q1? I think not.
  • Options
    RattersRatters Posts: 952

    Pulpstar said:

    Inflation stays at 4%

    Prices were rising about 1% per month in Feb-May last year. So hard not to see a fall in the annual rate over the spring.
    Agreed.

    Cumulative inflation over the last 8 months has now been a total of 0.2%.

    If we get relatively normal month-on-month prints over the next four months, we could easily see headline inflation fall to 2% or below.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    rkrkrk said:

    My theory, for which I have little evidence (and which coincides with what i wish to be true), is that Dems don't want Biden to run again if asked in polls. He is too old etc.

    But when it comes to an actual election, they are still Dems, so of course they will vote for Biden/Dems.

    Some of it is clearly concern with/unhappiness about the candidate. But hopefully some of it is midterm protest polling, which will melt away once the nominations are confirmed and the campaign is on.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,635
    "Political Strategist Says His Party Is Doing Better Than Expected Shock"
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,868

    Has anyone ever seen George Santos and Alan Carr in the same room?

    Santos is a more accomplished comedian.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,159
    Ratters said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Inflation stays at 4%

    Prices were rising about 1% per month in Feb-May last year. So hard not to see a fall in the annual rate over the spring.
    Agreed.

    Cumulative inflation over the last 8 months has now been a total of 0.2%.

    If we get relatively normal month-on-month prints over the next four months, we could easily see headline inflation fall to 2% or below.
    Which is why Sunak won’t call an election in May, but it won’t be enough to save him,
  • Options
    jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 745
    rkrkrk said:

    My theory, for which I have little evidence (and which coincides with what i wish to be true), is that Dems don't want Biden to run again if asked in polls. He is too old etc.

    But when it comes to an actual election, they are still Dems, so of course they will vote for Biden/Dems.

    Yes my belief for a while has been that his polling is weak because 'someone else' might be better, but as soon as he's confirmed as the candidate the voters will row back in behind him.
    I'm still slightly concerned, but not overly so.
    Besides, if Biden is really declining as Trump already has, then which inner circle team do you want to be running things - because Biden's team seem to be doing a good job.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,536
    I wouldn't read too much into it to be honest. Santos was really embarrassing, even for a modern GOP member, his lies were so egregious and blatant. It is a seat that tends to have a democratic tilt and they really should not have lost it in the first place. The GOP management (and I use that word loosely) of the House has been slated by absolutely everyone, even right leaning media for its incompetence and chaos. They had as much chance of holding on here as the Tories do tomorrow. If anything, the GOP will be relieved they did not lose by more.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,034
    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    My theory, for which I have little evidence (and which coincides with what i wish to be true), is that Dems don't want Biden to run again if asked in polls. He is too old etc.

    But when it comes to an actual election, they are still Dems, so of course they will vote for Biden/Dems.

    The more important question though is, will independents?

    Instinct still says yes. They are unenthused by Biden but everything I'm seeing suggests Trump is toxic to them. Every poll, every election, every response they are giving to policy surveys.
    I suspect true independents who switch their vote regularly are a bit overrated. Most people are actually reliably dem or repub, they just don't want to admit it/have an argument.
  • Options
    It seems idiotic to me that Congress gets reelected every 2 years. The need to be constantly raising money to be constantly fighting an election campaign which explains why American politics is so corrupted.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,008
    edited February 14

    It seems idiotic to me that Congress gets reelected every 2 years. The need to be constantly raising money to be constantly fighting an election campaign which explains why American politics is so corrupted.

    The Chartists would like to have a word with you.

    Another reason why the working classes really shouldn't have the vote.

    https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/transformingsociety/electionsvoting/chartists/overview/chartistmovement/
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Inflation stays at 4%

    *brushes fingernails quietly*

    Next up, did the UK really suffer a technical recession in Q4 and Q1? I think not.
    Does it matter? Regardless of the technical economy, the real economy has an awful lot of people working very hard and having not enough money to effectively live on.

    If we just avoid recession tomorrow and the Tories start crowing about how their economic plan is delivering, they are in deep trouble.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,014
    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    My theory, for which I have little evidence (and which coincides with what i wish to be true), is that Dems don't want Biden to run again if asked in polls. He is too old etc.

    But when it comes to an actual election, they are still Dems, so of course they will vote for Biden/Dems.

    The more important question though is, will independents?

    Instinct still says yes. They are unenthused by Biden but everything I'm seeing suggests Trump is toxic to them. Every poll, every election, every response they are giving to policy surveys.
    I suspect true independents who switch their vote regularly are a bit overrated. Most people are actually reliably dem or repub, they just don't want to admit it/have an argument.
    I suspect otherwise.

    But - one thing I would say is that the Dems have a clear lead in terms of voter loyalty. The last time they lost the popular vote by more than five points was in 1988. So they haven't much work to do to bolt on independents to win comfortably, as Biden and Obama showed. Or indeed the 2022 Senate elections.

    The catch is that because these voters are concentrated in a minority of states, they have to work the right voters in the right areas to win the Presidency, which Clinton was very bad at. Will Biden be as good next time as in 2020? Probably not, but as Trump will be worse it may cancel it out.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,868
    Chris said:

    "Political Strategist Says His Party Is Doing Better Than Expected Shock"

    More shockingly, it is.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,814
    DavidL said:

    I wouldn't read too much into it to be honest. Santos was really embarrassing, even for a modern GOP member, his lies were so egregious and blatant. It is a seat that tends to have a democratic tilt and they really should not have lost it in the first place. The GOP management (and I use that word loosely) of the House has been slated by absolutely everyone, even right leaning media for its incompetence and chaos. They had as much chance of holding on here as the Tories do tomorrow. If anything, the GOP will be relieved they did not lose by more.

    New York 3rd congressional district is a 'swing' district and has been won by both Democrats and Republicans in recent years by around 10 points.
    Tom Suozzi, the Democrat won by a larger margin than expected, about 59% to 41%. I don't think the GOP will be relieved.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6_hu-7zsg0
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,868
    DavidL said:

    I wouldn't read too much into it to be honest. Santos was really embarrassing, even for a modern GOP member, his lies were so egregious and blatant. It is a seat that tends to have a democratic tilt and they really should not have lost it in the first place. The GOP management (and I use that word loosely) of the House has been slated by absolutely everyone, even right leaning media for its incompetence and chaos. They had as much chance of holding on here as the Tories do tomorrow. If anything, the GOP will be relieved they did not lose by more.

    Why did the polling not pick that up ?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,324

    Usual caveats apply:

    "russian big landing ship «Caesar Kunikov» (BDK-64) has been hit, burned and is sinking in the Black Sea."

    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757654903567081729

    A ship built in Poland:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ship_Caesar_Kunikov

    Alleged video:
    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757675563597140165

    The Black Sea Fleet is not having a good war.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,868
    Because the orange snowflake can never be wrong.

    Trump calls Republican candidate Mazi Pilip “this very foolish woman” after she loses the House special election in New York, saying it’s because she wasn’t MAGA enough.
    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1757663418297778192
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,539

    DavidL said:

    I wouldn't read too much into it to be honest. Santos was really embarrassing, even for a modern GOP member, his lies were so egregious and blatant. It is a seat that tends to have a democratic tilt and they really should not have lost it in the first place. The GOP management (and I use that word loosely) of the House has been slated by absolutely everyone, even right leaning media for its incompetence and chaos. They had as much chance of holding on here as the Tories do tomorrow. If anything, the GOP will be relieved they did not lose by more.

    New York 3rd congressional district is a 'swing' district and has been won by both Democrats and Republicans in recent years by around 10 points.
    Tom Suozzi, the Democrat won by a larger margin than expected, about 59% to 41%. I don't think the GOP will be relieved.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6_hu-7zsg0
    No he didn't win 59/41 - that link was the result with about 50% of the vote counted.

    As already posted above, the almost final result (97% counted) was:

    Suozzi (Dem) - 53.9%
    Pilip (Rep) - 46.1%
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,663
    Nigelb said:

    Because the orange snowflake can never be wrong.

    Trump calls Republican candidate Mazi Pilip “this very foolish woman” after she loses the House special election in New York, saying it’s because she wasn’t MAGA enough.
    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1757663418297778192

    If she went full on MAGA in that seat she would have lost by more . Results in NY state in 2022 cost the Dems the House so this is a welcome win for the Dems .
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,714

    Usual caveats apply:

    "russian big landing ship «Caesar Kunikov» (BDK-64) has been hit, burned and is sinking in the Black Sea."

    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757654903567081729

    A ship built in Poland:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ship_Caesar_Kunikov

    Alleged video:
    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757675563597140165

    The Black Sea Fleet is not having a good war.
    It’s quite amazing that they still haven’t learned how to place booms around ships overnight, especially when in port.

    So they end up with a different type of boom!
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Usual caveats apply:

    "russian big landing ship «Caesar Kunikov» (BDK-64) has been hit, burned and is sinking in the Black Sea."

    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757654903567081729

    A ship built in Poland:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ship_Caesar_Kunikov

    Named after HSU Major Tsezar Kunikov who was killed on the same day in 1943. Top trolling, if deliberate.
    These smoking related accidents are really getting out of hand.
    Look at what a tank can do to an ammo dump:
    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1757561369212162209?s=12

    Or what a little quadcopter hobby drone carrying a grenade, can do to one of those fancy new T-90 tanks:
    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1757201451342827829?s=12

    The less said about what a few little drone boats can do to the once-mighty Russian Navy, the better. Happy Valentine’s Day Putin, with love from Ukraine & friends. :love::heart:
    Is this a new version of rock, paper scissors? Drone beats tank beats ammo dump (beats drone?).
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,814
    MikeL said:

    DavidL said:

    I wouldn't read too much into it to be honest. Santos was really embarrassing, even for a modern GOP member, his lies were so egregious and blatant. It is a seat that tends to have a democratic tilt and they really should not have lost it in the first place. The GOP management (and I use that word loosely) of the House has been slated by absolutely everyone, even right leaning media for its incompetence and chaos. They had as much chance of holding on here as the Tories do tomorrow. If anything, the GOP will be relieved they did not lose by more.

    New York 3rd congressional district is a 'swing' district and has been won by both Democrats and Republicans in recent years by around 10 points.
    Tom Suozzi, the Democrat won by a larger margin than expected, about 59% to 41%. I don't think the GOP will be relieved.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6_hu-7zsg0
    No he didn't win 59/41 - that link was the result with about 50% of the vote counted.

    As already posted above, the almost final result (97% counted) was:

    Suozzi (Dem) - 53.9%
    Pilip (Rep) - 46.1%
    Fair enough, still a solid win and a reduction in the Republican's already slim majority.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,364
    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    My theory, for which I have little evidence (and which coincides with what i wish to be true), is that Dems don't want Biden to run again if asked in polls. He is too old etc.

    But when it comes to an actual election, they are still Dems, so of course they will vote for Biden/Dems.

    The more important question though is, will independents?

    Instinct still says yes. They are unenthused by Biden but everything I'm seeing suggests Trump is toxic to them. Every poll, every election, every response they are giving to policy surveys.
    I suspect true independents who switch their vote regularly are a bit overrated. Most people are actually reliably dem or repub, they just don't want to admit it/have an argument.
    I suspect otherwise.

    But - one thing I would say is that the Dems have a clear lead in terms of voter loyalty. The last time they lost the popular vote by more than five points was in 1988. So they haven't much work to do to bolt on independents to win comfortably, as Biden and Obama showed. Or indeed the 2022 Senate elections.

    The catch is that because these voters are concentrated in a minority of states, they have to work the right voters in the right areas to win the Presidency, which Clinton was very bad at. Will Biden be as good next time as in 2020? Probably not, but as Trump will be worse it may cancel it out.
    I would also say the Democrats are a disciplined and well organised party, which hasn't always been the case, and the Republicans certainly are not.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,014
    One thing we possibly should consider in light of this result and the polling failure is what the implications are for arguably the more important race - the Senate.

    You look at the map and it’s about as bad as it could possibly be for the Dems. In fact, under normal circumstances you would swear blind they have no chance at all of a hold.

    But if there are errors on this scale in the polling could some of the ones we’re assuming trending Republican swing the other way? Especially if people vote for Trump (for whatever lunatic reason) but don’t want him to have the trifecta?

    Control of the Senate would be critical for Trump’s stated intention of dismantling the system. If he doesn’t have it, he’ll find it much harder to pack the SCOTUS, for a start. Or to get his nuttier cabinet members confirmed.
  • Options
    twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,242
    edited February 14
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Inflation stays at 4%

    *brushes fingernails quietly*

    Next up, did the UK really suffer a technical recession in Q4 and Q1? I think not.
    It's easy to get carried away by the technical details and for the government to pop the champagne and slap each other on the back for a job well done in lowering inflation. Out in the real world, mortgages are as costly and as unaffordable as they've ever been and hundreds of thousands of mortgage holders have still yet to remortgage onto much higher rates. Energy bills are still crippling, food still going up. Mortgage arrears are at their highest rate since the GFC. Business insolvency ditto. It's grim out there
    The inflation figures don't lie, but they ain't telling the truth either.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,412
    ydoethur said:

    Usual caveats apply:

    "russian big landing ship «Caesar Kunikov» (BDK-64) has been hit, burned and is sinking in the Black Sea."

    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757654903567081729

    A ship built in Poland:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ship_Caesar_Kunikov

    Named after HSU Major Tsezar Kunikov who was killed on the same day in 1943. Top trolling, if deliberate.
    These smoking related accidents are really getting out of hand.
    Not so much Lucky Strike as a tragedy of Hamlet proportions.
    A video of what really happened

    https://youtu.be/4yAcmDQdcHA?si=ukg4I3H0aO6aVtjo
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,412
    edited February 14
    Sandpit said:

    Usual caveats apply:

    "russian big landing ship «Caesar Kunikov» (BDK-64) has been hit, burned and is sinking in the Black Sea."

    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757654903567081729

    A ship built in Poland:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ship_Caesar_Kunikov

    Alleged video:
    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757675563597140165

    The Black Sea Fleet is not having a good war.
    It’s quite amazing that they still haven’t learned how to place booms around ships overnight, especially when in port.

    So they end up with a different type of boom!
    A boom across the harbour entrance, you say?


  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,159
    Have we talked about Trump trying to make Lara, his daughter-in-law, co-chair of the RNC?
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,034
    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    My theory, for which I have little evidence (and which coincides with what i wish to be true), is that Dems don't want Biden to run again if asked in polls. He is too old etc.

    But when it comes to an actual election, they are still Dems, so of course they will vote for Biden/Dems.

    The more important question though is, will independents?

    Instinct still says yes. They are unenthused by Biden but everything I'm seeing suggests Trump is toxic to them. Every poll, every election, every response they are giving to policy surveys.
    I suspect true independents who switch their vote regularly are a bit overrated. Most people are actually reliably dem or repub, they just don't want to admit it/have an argument.
    I suspect otherwise.

    But - one thing I would say is that the Dems have a clear lead in terms of voter loyalty. The last time they lost the popular vote by more than five points was in 1988. So they haven't much work to do to bolt on independents to win comfortably, as Biden and Obama showed. Or indeed the 2022 Senate elections.

    The catch is that because these voters are concentrated in a minority of states, they have to work the right voters in the right areas to win the Presidency, which Clinton was very bad at. Will Biden be as good next time as in 2020? Probably not, but as Trump will be worse it may cancel it out.
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/few-americans-who-identify-as-independent-are-actually-independent-thats-really-bad-for-politics/
  • Options
    Good morning

    Labour down 5% on this poll

    Tomorrow's by elections should show if this is happening or if it is all smoke and mirrors

    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1757665864696971522?t=zfbTQL3aas6Qcnfmr03h_w&s=19
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,663
    ydoethur said:

    One thing we possibly should consider in light of this result and the polling failure is what the implications are for arguably the more important race - the Senate.

    You look at the map and it’s about as bad as it could possibly be for the Dems. In fact, under normal circumstances you would swear blind they have no chance at all of a hold.

    But if there are errors on this scale in the polling could some of the ones we’re assuming trending Republican swing the other way? Especially if people vote for Trump (for whatever lunatic reason) but don’t want him to have the trifecta?

    Control of the Senate would be critical for Trump’s stated intention of dismantling the system. If he doesn’t have it, he’ll find it much harder to pack the SCOTUS, for a start. Or to get his nuttier cabinet members confirmed.

    Ticket splitting is rarer then it used to be and I doubt Trump supporters will vote for him and then not the GOP senate candidate.

    I think the Senate needs a miracle for the Dems to hold . They have a better chance in the House .
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,714
    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    My theory, for which I have little evidence (and which coincides with what i wish to be true), is that Dems don't want Biden to run again if asked in polls. He is too old etc.

    But when it comes to an actual election, they are still Dems, so of course they will vote for Biden/Dems.

    The more important question though is, will independents?

    Instinct still says yes. They are unenthused by Biden but everything I'm seeing suggests Trump is toxic to them. Every poll, every election, every response they are giving to policy surveys.
    I suspect true independents who switch their vote regularly are a bit overrated. Most people are actually reliably dem or repub, they just don't want to admit it/have an argument.
    I suspect otherwise.

    But - one thing I would say is that the Dems have a clear lead in terms of voter loyalty. The last time they lost the popular vote by more than five points was in 1988. So they haven't much work to do to bolt on independents to win comfortably, as Biden and Obama showed. Or indeed the 2022 Senate elections.

    The catch is that because these voters are concentrated in a minority of states, they have to work the right voters in the right areas to win the Presidency, which Clinton was very bad at. Will Biden be as good next time as in 2020? Probably not, but as Trump will be worse it may cancel it out.
    I would also say the Democrats are a disciplined and well organised party, which hasn't always been the case, and the Republicans certainly are not.
    This by-election only happened because Republican representatives voted to expel one of their own before he was convicted of anything.

    They did eventually get themselves together to vote to impeach Mayorkas though, at the second attempt.

    With both houses so closely balanced, maintaining discipline is absolutely crucial.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,536

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Inflation stays at 4%

    *brushes fingernails quietly*

    Next up, did the UK really suffer a technical recession in Q4 and Q1? I think not.
    It's easy to get carried away by the technical details and for the government to pop the champagne and slap each other on the back for a job well done in lowering inflation. Out in the real world, mortgages are as costly and as unaffordable as they've ever been and hundreds of thousands of mortgage holders have still yet to remortgage onto much higher rates. Energy bills are still crippling, food still going up. Mortgage arrears are at their highest rate since the GFC. Business insolvency ditto. It's grim out there
    The inflation figures don't lie, but they ain't telling the truth either.
    Oh I agree with all of that. Real wages are rising by more than 2% a year on average now but that does not come close to offsetting the additional costs borne by those with mortgages in particular. Many people are struggling and 4% inflation is not great. Some lenders are edging their mortgage offers back up again now on the assumption that base rates are going to fall more slowly than once thought. That is very much the way I see it, particularly if I am right that a technical recession is avoided.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,159

    Good morning

    Labour down 5% on this poll

    Tomorrow's by elections should show if this is happening or if it is all smoke and mirrors

    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1757665864696971522?t=zfbTQL3aas6Qcnfmr03h_w&s=19

    Most of that poll was done before Ali-gate.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,663

    Good morning

    Labour down 5% on this poll

    Tomorrow's by elections should show if this is happening or if it is all smoke and mirrors

    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1757665864696971522?t=zfbTQL3aas6Qcnfmr03h_w&s=19

    Most of that poll was done before Ali-gate.
    Maybe a reaction to the green u-turn . Certainly it’s been a bad week for Labour and not what you want in the run up to the by-elections .

    Perhaps the postal votes might help them seeing as most would have been in before things went south.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 26,553
    ydoethur said:

    One thing we possibly should consider in light of this result and the polling failure is what the implications are for arguably the more important race - the Senate.

    You look at the map and it’s about as bad as it could possibly be for the Dems. In fact, under normal circumstances you would swear blind they have no chance at all of a hold.

    But if there are errors on this scale in the polling could some of the ones we’re assuming trending Republican swing the other way? Especially if people vote for Trump (for whatever lunatic reason) but don’t want him to have the trifecta?

    Control of the Senate would be critical for Trump’s stated intention of dismantling the system. If he doesn’t have it, he’ll find it much harder to pack the SCOTUS, for a start. Or to get his nuttier cabinet members confirmed.

    One thing I would be looking at were I betting on anything in the states would be the states were abortion referendums are on the ballot. That is designed to get women out and voting and anything in that direction has tended to send the results towards the Democrats
  • Options
    nico679 said:

    Good morning

    Labour down 5% on this poll

    Tomorrow's by elections should show if this is happening or if it is all smoke and mirrors

    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1757665864696971522?t=zfbTQL3aas6Qcnfmr03h_w&s=19

    Most of that poll was done before Ali-gate.
    Maybe a reaction to the green u-turn . Certainly it’s been a bad week for Labour and not what you want in the run up to the by-elections .

    Perhaps the postal votes might help them seeing as most would have been in before things went south.
    Sky reporting a third labour politician has been spoken to

    https://news.sky.com/story/third-labour-politician-spoken-to-over-meeting-at-centre-of-antisemitism-row-13071272
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645
    ydoethur said:

    One thing we possibly should consider in light of this result and the polling failure is what the implications are for arguably the more important race - the Senate.

    You look at the map and it’s about as bad as it could possibly be for the Dems. In fact, under normal circumstances you would swear blind they have no chance at all of a hold.

    But if there are errors on this scale in the polling could some of the ones we’re assuming trending Republican swing the other way? Especially if people vote for Trump (for whatever lunatic reason) but don’t want him to have the trifecta?

    Control of the Senate would be critical for Trump’s stated intention of dismantling the system. If he doesn’t have it, he’ll find it much harder to pack the SCOTUS, for a start. Or to get his nuttier cabinet members confirmed.

    The thing is, no polling error is going to produce a Democratic win in West Virginia, and both Montana and Ohio have trended very red.

    The polls were actually quite accurate, overall, in 2022. But, the Republicans fell short in swing districts.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    My theory, for which I have little evidence (and which coincides with what i wish to be true), is that Dems don't want Biden to run again if asked in polls. He is too old etc.

    But when it comes to an actual election, they are still Dems, so of course they will vote for Biden/Dems.

    The more important question though is, will independents?

    Instinct still says yes. They are unenthused by Biden but everything I'm seeing suggests Trump is toxic to them. Every poll, every election, every response they are giving to policy surveys.
    I suspect true independents who switch their vote regularly are a bit overrated. Most people are actually reliably dem or repub, they just don't want to admit it/have an argument.
    I suspect otherwise.

    But - one thing I would say is that the Dems have a clear lead in terms of voter loyalty. The last time they lost the popular vote by more than five points was in 1988. So they haven't much work to do to bolt on independents to win comfortably, as Biden and Obama showed. Or indeed the 2022 Senate elections.

    The catch is that because these voters are concentrated in a minority of states, they have to work the right voters in the right areas to win the Presidency, which Clinton was very bad at. Will Biden be as good next time as in 2020? Probably not, but as Trump will be worse it may cancel it out.
    I would also say the Democrats are a disciplined and well organised party, which hasn't always been the case, and the Republicans certainly are not.
    This by-election only happened because Republican representatives voted to expel one of their own before he was convicted of anything.

    They did eventually get themselves together to vote to impeach Mayorkas though, at the second attempt.

    With both houses so closely balanced, maintaining discipline is absolutely crucial.
    Why did Santos need to be convicted? He lied and lied and lied and lied. Even in this GOP they couldn’t stand with him as a colleague in good conscience.
  • Options

    nico679 said:

    Good morning

    Labour down 5% on this poll

    Tomorrow's by elections should show if this is happening or if it is all smoke and mirrors

    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1757665864696971522?t=zfbTQL3aas6Qcnfmr03h_w&s=19

    Most of that poll was done before Ali-gate.
    Maybe a reaction to the green u-turn . Certainly it’s been a bad week for Labour and not what you want in the run up to the by-elections .

    Perhaps the postal votes might help them seeing as most would have been in before things went south.
    Sky reporting a third labour politician has been spoken to

    https://news.sky.com/story/third-labour-politician-spoken-to-over-meeting-at-centre-of-antisemitism-row-13071272
    Though for completeness, worth noting

    Sky News understands Mr Dad has been "spoken to" by Labour officials, but it is not yet clear if he made any contribution to the meeting and no further action has been taken.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048

    nico679 said:

    Good morning

    Labour down 5% on this poll

    Tomorrow's by elections should show if this is happening or if it is all smoke and mirrors

    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1757665864696971522?t=zfbTQL3aas6Qcnfmr03h_w&s=19

    Most of that poll was done before Ali-gate.
    Maybe a reaction to the green u-turn . Certainly it’s been a bad week for Labour and not what you want in the run up to the by-elections .

    Perhaps the postal votes might help them seeing as most would have been in before things went south.
    Sky reporting a third labour politician has been spoken to

    https://news.sky.com/story/third-labour-politician-spoken-to-over-meeting-at-centre-of-antisemitism-row-13071272
    Though for completeness, worth noting

    Sky News understands Mr Dad has been "spoken to" by Labour officials, but it is not yet clear if he made any contribution to the meeting and no further action has been taken.
    Is he a centrist, Dad?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,458
    MikeL said:

    Also worth noting that this District will not be fought again in November 2024 - as there will be boundary changes.

    Bipartisan commission must put forward new maps by the end of this month. The New York legislature (Dem controlled) will then vote whether to approve them.

    If legislature rejects, legislature then draws its own maps.

    So essentially there are going to be new maps which will be more Dem friendly.

    Dems underperforming in NY (relative to elsewhere) is of course one reason they lost the House and thus why Ukraine and others are not getting support now. Granted it was a decent midterm, but the power of redistricting is big in many states. Several are having to redraw I believe.
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    One thing we possibly should consider in light of this result and the polling failure is what the implications are for arguably the more important race - the Senate.

    You look at the map and it’s about as bad as it could possibly be for the Dems. In fact, under normal circumstances you would swear blind they have no chance at all of a hold.

    But if there are errors on this scale in the polling could some of the ones we’re assuming trending Republican swing the other way? Especially if people vote for Trump (for whatever lunatic reason) but don’t want him to have the trifecta?

    Control of the Senate would be critical for Trump’s stated intention of dismantling the system. If he doesn’t have it, he’ll find it much harder to pack the SCOTUS, for a start. Or to get his nuttier cabinet members confirmed.

    I worry that the underperforming of the GOP is symptomatic of the GOP being taken over by Trump fanatics, ie that they won't vote in weeks like this where Trump isn't on the ballot, but will turn up in droves when he is on the ballot in November.

    Hopefully everyone he attracts results in two extra voters turning out to reject him, but I wouldn't count any chickens yet.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,458

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Inflation stays at 4%

    *brushes fingernails quietly*

    Next up, did the UK really suffer a technical recession in Q4 and Q1? I think not.
    It's easy to get carried away by the technical details and for the government to pop the champagne and slap each other on the back for a job well done in lowering inflation. Out in the real world, mortgages are as costly and as unaffordable as they've ever been and hundreds of thousands of mortgage holders have still yet to remortgage onto much higher rates. Energy bills are still crippling, food still going up. Mortgage arrears are at their highest rate since the GFC. Business insolvency ditto. It's grim out there
    The inflation figures don't lie, but they ain't telling the truth either.
    Yep, all downsides for them.

    Bad narrative if we're in recession, no real benefit if not, since celebrating when things still feel very bad will go over poorly.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,458

    Usual caveats apply:

    "russian big landing ship «Caesar Kunikov» (BDK-64) has been hit, burned and is sinking in the Black Sea."

    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757654903567081729

    A ship built in Poland:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ship_Caesar_Kunikov

    Alleged video:
    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757675563597140165

    The Black Sea Fleet is not having a good war.
    Does Ukraine even have a navy anymore? Punching above their weight at sea, thankfully.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,458

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    My theory, for which I have little evidence (and which coincides with what i wish to be true), is that Dems don't want Biden to run again if asked in polls. He is too old etc.

    But when it comes to an actual election, they are still Dems, so of course they will vote for Biden/Dems.

    The more important question though is, will independents?

    Instinct still says yes. They are unenthused by Biden but everything I'm seeing suggests Trump is toxic to them. Every poll, every election, every response they are giving to policy surveys.
    I suspect true independents who switch their vote regularly are a bit overrated. Most people are actually reliably dem or repub, they just don't want to admit it/have an argument.
    I suspect otherwise.

    But - one thing I would say is that the Dems have a clear lead in terms of voter loyalty. The last time they lost the popular vote by more than five points was in 1988. So they haven't much work to do to bolt on independents to win comfortably, as Biden and Obama showed. Or indeed the 2022 Senate elections.

    The catch is that because these voters are concentrated in a minority of states, they have to work the right voters in the right areas to win the Presidency, which Clinton was very bad at. Will Biden be as good next time as in 2020? Probably not, but as Trump will be worse it may cancel it out.
    I would also say the Democrats are a disciplined and well organised party, which hasn't always been the case, and the Republicans certainly are not.
    This by-election only happened because Republican representatives voted to expel one of their own before he was convicted of anything.

    They did eventually get themselves together to vote to impeach Mayorkas though, at the second attempt.

    With both houses so closely balanced, maintaining discipline is absolutely crucial.
    Why did Santos need to be convicted? He lied and lied and lied and lied. Even in this GOP they couldn’t stand with him as a colleague in good conscience.
    If only the lie was he'd said his name was George Trump they'd have stuck with him.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,868

    Have we talked about Trump trying to make Lara, his daughter-in-law, co-chair of the RNC?

    You mean the Trump Organisation ?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,868

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    My theory, for which I have little evidence (and which coincides with what i wish to be true), is that Dems don't want Biden to run again if asked in polls. He is too old etc.

    But when it comes to an actual election, they are still Dems, so of course they will vote for Biden/Dems.

    The more important question though is, will independents?

    Instinct still says yes. They are unenthused by Biden but everything I'm seeing suggests Trump is toxic to them. Every poll, every election, every response they are giving to policy surveys.
    I suspect true independents who switch their vote regularly are a bit overrated. Most people are actually reliably dem or repub, they just don't want to admit it/have an argument.
    I suspect otherwise.

    But - one thing I would say is that the Dems have a clear lead in terms of voter loyalty. The last time they lost the popular vote by more than five points was in 1988. So they haven't much work to do to bolt on independents to win comfortably, as Biden and Obama showed. Or indeed the 2022 Senate elections.

    The catch is that because these voters are concentrated in a minority of states, they have to work the right voters in the right areas to win the Presidency, which Clinton was very bad at. Will Biden be as good next time as in 2020? Probably not, but as Trump will be worse it may cancel it out.
    I would also say the Democrats are a disciplined and well organised party, which hasn't always been the case, and the Republicans certainly are not.
    This by-election only happened because Republican representatives voted to expel one of their own before he was convicted of anything.

    They did eventually get themselves together to vote to impeach Mayorkas though, at the second attempt.

    With both houses so closely balanced, maintaining discipline is absolutely crucial.
    Why did Santos need to be convicted? He lied and lied and lied and lied. Even in this GOP they couldn’t stand with him as a colleague in good conscience.
    They put up with Trump.
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Inflation stays at 4%

    *brushes fingernails quietly*

    Next up, did the UK really suffer a technical recession in Q4 and Q1? I think not.
    It's easy to get carried away by the technical details and for the government to pop the champagne and slap each other on the back for a job well done in lowering inflation. Out in the real world, mortgages are as costly and as unaffordable as they've ever been and hundreds of thousands of mortgage holders have still yet to remortgage onto much higher rates. Energy bills are still crippling, food still going up. Mortgage arrears are at their highest rate since the GFC. Business insolvency ditto. It's grim out there
    The inflation figures don't lie, but they ain't telling the truth either.
    Yep, all downsides for them.

    Bad narrative if we're in recession, no real benefit if not, since celebrating when things still feel very bad will go over poorly.
    The difference between +0.1%, 0.0% and -0.1% is way less important than the difference between any of them and the growth needed to afford nice things.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    Remember when we used to worry about a Russian amphibious landing near Odessa?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,694
    edited February 14

    ydoethur said:

    Usual caveats apply:

    "russian big landing ship «Caesar Kunikov» (BDK-64) has been hit, burned and is sinking in the Black Sea."

    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757654903567081729

    A ship built in Poland:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ship_Caesar_Kunikov

    Named after HSU Major Tsezar Kunikov who was killed on the same day in 1943. Top trolling, if deliberate.
    These smoking related accidents are really getting out of hand.
    Not so much Lucky Strike as a tragedy of Hamlet proportions.
    A video of what really happened

    https://youtu.be/4yAcmDQdcHA?si=ukg4I3H0aO6aVtjo
    ...
  • Options
    PJHPJH Posts: 609
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Inflation stays at 4%

    *brushes fingernails quietly*

    Next up, did the UK really suffer a technical recession in Q4 and Q1? I think not.
    It's easy to get carried away by the technical details and for the government to pop the champagne and slap each other on the back for a job well done in lowering inflation. Out in the real world, mortgages are as costly and as unaffordable as they've ever been and hundreds of thousands of mortgage holders have still yet to remortgage onto much higher rates. Energy bills are still crippling, food still going up. Mortgage arrears are at their highest rate since the GFC. Business insolvency ditto. It's grim out there
    The inflation figures don't lie, but they ain't telling the truth either.
    Oh I agree with all of that. Real wages are rising by more than 2% a year on average now but that does not come close to offsetting the additional costs borne by those with mortgages in particular. Many people are struggling and 4% inflation is not great. Some lenders are edging their mortgage offers back up again now on the assumption that base rates are going to fall more slowly than once thought. That is very much the way I see it, particularly if I am right that a technical recession is avoided.
    Don't forget that about a year ago, inflation was 11% and pay rises were at best 5-6%; so if you're working for a typical employer such as mine this year offering about 1-2% above inflation it will take about another 3 years or so to close that gap before people start feeling better than slightly less badly off compared to before.
  • Options

    ydoethur said:

    One thing we possibly should consider in light of this result and the polling failure is what the implications are for arguably the more important race - the Senate.

    You look at the map and it’s about as bad as it could possibly be for the Dems. In fact, under normal circumstances you would swear blind they have no chance at all of a hold.

    But if there are errors on this scale in the polling could some of the ones we’re assuming trending Republican swing the other way? Especially if people vote for Trump (for whatever lunatic reason) but don’t want him to have the trifecta?

    Control of the Senate would be critical for Trump’s stated intention of dismantling the system. If he doesn’t have it, he’ll find it much harder to pack the SCOTUS, for a start. Or to get his nuttier cabinet members confirmed.

    I worry that the underperforming of the GOP is symptomatic of the GOP being taken over by Trump fanatics, ie that they won't vote in weeks like this where Trump isn't on the ballot, but will turn up in droves when he is on the ballot in November.

    Hopefully everyone he attracts results in two extra voters turning out to reject him, but I wouldn't count any chickens yet.
    I think this is a fair concern. Although, there is also the point if the Trumpists can’t organise at a local level can they at a national? Arguably this was evident in the mid-Terms when Trump aligned candidates tended to perform poorly.

    And remember special elections / by-elections caused by the transgressions of the previous member are a different kettle of fish. Looking at Wikipedia I’d say out of 11 recent UK by-elections not caused by death or moving to a different job (e.g. to be Mayor or something) only two were retained by the party who previously held the seat (Chester and Uxbridge). Put simply be a prat and your party usually gets punished.
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Unfortunately this is a by-election dominated by a quarrel in a far-away country between people of whom we know far, far too much.

    There are conflicts all around the world that don't get a fraction of the spotlight or attention that this one has had. I wonder what is so unique about this one conflict, that every moment becomes headline news unlike all the others?

    The physical carnage, the huge civilian casualties, the mass displacement of people, the resulting humanitarian disaster, the inflictor of all this being a regime supported by the west - these do make for a big story.
    "the inflictor of all this being a regime supported by the west".

    I think you might need to understand that this awful conflict was blatantly started by Hamas who "inflicted" rape torture and murder on innocent people.

    There is a reasonable argument that the Israeli response has been disproportionate, but the "infliction" was initiated by Hamas terrorists.

    As you have been an occasional apologist for Corbyn (and probably indirectly voted for him to be PM) I guess this is hard to recognise?
    I know who started the fire. Hamas did. Oct 7th was unspeakable. It's now 13th February and Israel has wreaked a mighty vengeance for it.

    Justifiable response to a threat deemed existential? Or barbaric collective punishment of the population of Gaza?

    I think the latter.
    I think you'll find that war does involve what useful idiots such as yourself would call "collective punishment".
    Collective punishment is a war crime under Article 33 of the Geneva Convention. People who make excuses for it are idiots, useful or otherwise.
    That's why I put it in quotation marks. Or perhaps Kinabalu thinks what Israel is doing is a war crime.
    Well many of us do.
    Yes hugely important that arseholes on the internet think something or other.
    The arseholes being those who defend the murder of civilians as a necessary evil.

    You suit the description perfectly.
    It's war, Dickie boy. Look it up in the dictionary.
    Indeed hence war crimes. Look them up yourself.
    I suspect the proportion of military combatants to civilians was far smaller ratio in the Hamburg firestorm and the levelling of Dresden. But we weren't on trial at Nuremburg.

    Is it a free pass for war crimes if you win the war?
    Nope. Many commentators these days consider Dresden as a war crime. Indeed there is no escaping that for Harris as his explicit stated aim of breaking the German spirit by targeting civilians is specifically addressed as a war crime today.

    The UK, and importantly in this debate, Israel both signed up to the post WW2 international rules on the conduct of war which outlawed many of the things both sides did in WW2 and which Israel and Russia are both doing now.
    Personally I think only idiots living without the fear of Nazi tyranny consider Dresden a war crime. Why Dresden and not every single bombing raid that Bomber Command mounted? Because like it or not, Bomber Command wanted to achieve Dresden results EVERY time they set out. Dresden stands out as it was late in the war, and was highly successful, due to the firestorm. But many, many allied soldiers died after Dresden. Many Jews and other captives of the Nazis died after Dresden. Germany could have surrendered and stopped it all.
    I know very little about WW2.
    But was Bomber Command strategy basically predicated on the idea that bombing Germany out of the war would save the innumerable slaughter witnessed in WW1?
    Yep. Harris wanted to defeat Germany without the need for any British soldiers to land on the continent, other than to accept the surrender. There have been many arguments over the years about whether Bomber Command was worth the money and resources (materials and men) that it took. Max Hastings thought not in his book on the bomber war. Others disagree. Certainly the bombing campaign tied up tens if not hundreds of thousands of Germans defending the Reich who could have been fighting in the East. And combined with the 8th airforce’s campaign, the Allies achieved air dominance over the Luftwaffe, making D-Day much easier and restricting German movements to night time, to avoid being attacked from the air. By the end of 44 and into 45 the German transport system was wrecked, so moving anything was hard, including troops, tanks etc.

    Sadly the idea that you could depress the morale of a nation under a fascist authoritarian regime was false. Even if a German housewife wanted to end the war after her house was destroyed, there was no mechanism for her to achieve it. And the Blitz had shown the resilience of the Brits under the bomb.

    But ultimately strategic bombing contributed to winning the war and to describe one target destroyed as a war crime is infantile rubbish.
    There were lots of things done on both sides in both wars which would now be considered war crimes. The whole point of civilisation is that we develop and learn from our mistakes.
    My view is that war is never desirable, but once one is engaged, there’s no point in half measures.

    Ultimately one has to do what is needful, to win. There is nothing worse than defeat.
    Chemical warfare? Biological warfare? Terrorising an occupied population with retaliatory executions and the use of rape as a tool of suppression?

    We draw the line somewhere and where International Law has currently drawn it seems a pretty good place to me.

    (By the way I am not accusing Israel of any of these just pointing out that your 'half measures' might be very much open to interpretation).

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Unfortunately this is a by-election dominated by a quarrel in a far-away country between people of whom we know far, far too much.

    There are conflicts all around the world that don't get a fraction of the spotlight or attention that this one has had. I wonder what is so unique about this one conflict, that every moment becomes headline news unlike all the others?

    The physical carnage, the huge civilian casualties, the mass displacement of people, the resulting humanitarian disaster, the inflictor of all this being a regime supported by the west - these do make for a big story.
    "the inflictor of all this being a regime supported by the west".

    I think you might need to understand that this awful conflict was blatantly started by Hamas who "inflicted" rape torture and murder on innocent people.

    There is a reasonable argument that the Israeli response has been disproportionate, but the "infliction" was initiated by Hamas terrorists.

    As you have been an occasional apologist for Corbyn (and probably indirectly voted for him to be PM) I guess this is hard to recognise?
    I know who started the fire. Hamas did. Oct 7th was unspeakable. It's now 13th February and Israel has wreaked a mighty vengeance for it.

    Justifiable response to a threat deemed existential? Or barbaric collective punishment of the population of Gaza?

    I think the latter.
    I think you'll find that war does involve what useful idiots such as yourself would call "collective punishment".
    Collective punishment is a war crime under Article 33 of the Geneva Convention. People who make excuses for it are idiots, useful or otherwise.
    That's why I put it in quotation marks. Or perhaps Kinabalu thinks what Israel is doing is a war crime.
    Well many of us do.
    Yes hugely important that arseholes on the internet think something or other.
    The arseholes being those who defend the murder of civilians as a necessary evil.

    You suit the description perfectly.
    It's war, Dickie boy. Look it up in the dictionary.
    Indeed hence war crimes. Look them up yourself.
    I suspect the proportion of military combatants to civilians was far smaller ratio in the Hamburg firestorm and the levelling of Dresden. But we weren't on trial at Nuremburg.

    Is it a free pass for war crimes if you win the war?
    Nope. Many commentators these days consider Dresden as a war crime. Indeed there is no escaping that for Harris as his explicit stated aim of breaking the German spirit by targeting civilians is specifically addressed as a war crime today.

    The UK, and importantly in this debate, Israel both signed up to the post WW2 international rules on the conduct of war which outlawed many of the things both sides did in WW2 and which Israel and Russia are both doing now.
    Personally I think only idiots living without the fear of Nazi tyranny consider Dresden a war crime. Why Dresden and not every single bombing raid that Bomber Command mounted? Because like it or not, Bomber Command wanted to achieve Dresden results EVERY time they set out. Dresden stands out as it was late in the war, and was highly successful, due to the firestorm. But many, many allied soldiers died after Dresden. Many Jews and other captives of the Nazis died after Dresden. Germany could have surrendered and stopped it all.
    I know very little about WW2.
    But was Bomber Command strategy basically predicated on the idea that bombing Germany out of the war would save the innumerable slaughter witnessed in WW1?
    Yep. Harris wanted to defeat Germany without the need for any British soldiers to land on the continent, other than to accept the surrender. There have been many arguments over the years about whether Bomber Command was worth the money and resources (materials and men) that it took. Max Hastings thought not in his book on the bomber war. Others disagree. Certainly the bombing campaign tied up tens if not hundreds of thousands of Germans defending the Reich who could have been fighting in the East. And combined with the 8th airforce’s campaign, the Allies achieved air dominance over the Luftwaffe, making D-Day much easier and restricting German movements to night time, to avoid being attacked from the air. By the end of 44 and into 45 the German transport system was wrecked, so moving anything was hard, including troops, tanks etc.

    Sadly the idea that you could depress the morale of a nation under a fascist authoritarian regime was false. Even if a German housewife wanted to end the war after her house was destroyed, there was no mechanism for her to achieve it. And the Blitz had shown the resilience of the Brits under the bomb.

    But ultimately strategic bombing contributed to winning the war and to describe one target destroyed as a war crime is infantile rubbish.
    There were lots of things done on both sides in both wars which would now be considered war crimes. The whole point of civilisation is that we develop and learn from our mistakes.
    My view is that war is never desirable, but once one is engaged, there’s no point in half measures.

    Ultimately one has to do what is needful, to win. There is nothing worse than defeat.
    Chemical warfare? Biological warfare? Terrorising an occupied population with retaliatory executions and the use of rape as a tool of suppression?

    We draw the line somewhere and where International Law has currently drawn it seems a pretty good place to me.

    (By the way I am not accusing Israel of any of these just pointing out that your 'half measures' might be very much open to interpretation).
    It depends on the nature of the threat that one faces. If say, this country faced an invasion, or we were fighting an enemy like the Nazis, I don’t think we’d show much restraint.

    When the stakes are lower, one shows more restraint.
    That's a very reasonable point.

    And the problem is the hypocrisy of those who find the stakes minimal in the Middle East as they don't care about Israel, who then expect zero civilian casualties as a result. For Israel the stakes are massive.

    War is hell and war results in casualties, civilian casualties included.

    We went to war against Iraq without having been attacked and hundreds of thousands of civilians died as a result.
    Israel was attacked, and is defending itself in a war against an existential enemy that wants to destroy it, and people argue that they're illegitimate for fighting a war to defend themselves because of tens of thousands of alleged civilian casualties.

    What is that other than hypocrisy?

    Israel has every bit as much of a right to defend itself as any other nation. It has every bit as much of a right to fight this war to the best of its ability as any other nation. If that results in hundreds of thousands of Palestinian civilian casualties, just as our war resulted in hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilian casualties, then so long as they continue to stick to the rules of proportionality then it is not a war crime.

    That's a horrible thing to say, but war is horrible - and Hamas started this war knowing the consequences of their actions.

    Want an end to civilian casualties? Then there's a simple solution: Hamas lays down their arms unconditionally and releases the hostages. Otherwise the war continues.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,694
    edited February 14
    PJH said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Inflation stays at 4%

    *brushes fingernails quietly*

    Next up, did the UK really suffer a technical recession in Q4 and Q1? I think not.
    It's easy to get carried away by the technical details and for the government to pop the champagne and slap each other on the back for a job well done in lowering inflation. Out in the real world, mortgages are as costly and as unaffordable as they've ever been and hundreds of thousands of mortgage holders have still yet to remortgage onto much higher rates. Energy bills are still crippling, food still going up. Mortgage arrears are at their highest rate since the GFC. Business insolvency ditto. It's grim out there
    The inflation figures don't lie, but they ain't telling the truth either.
    Oh I agree with all of that. Real wages are rising by more than 2% a year on average now but that does not come close to offsetting the additional costs borne by those with mortgages in particular. Many people are struggling and 4% inflation is not great. Some lenders are edging their mortgage offers back up again now on the assumption that base rates are going to fall more slowly than once thought. That is very much the way I see it, particularly if I am right that a technical recession is avoided.
    Don't forget that about a year ago, inflation was 11% and pay rises were at best 5-6%; so if you're working for a typical employer such as mine this year offering about 1-2% above inflation it will take about another 3 years or so to close that gap before people start feeling better than slightly less badly off compared to before.
    Also, this 4% is on top of those price rises from the last 2 years, so it's all cumulative even if the gap is finally closed within a given year as you say. It's the integral that kills, not the differential. Though Mr Sunak and his apologists on here do like to focus on the differential - while Mr 30p advocates the modern equivalents of pauper soups.

    https://aboutkinmelhall.com/resources/victorians/victorian-cooking/how-to-make-soup-for-the-poor-the-victorian-way
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,412
    kle4 said:

    Usual caveats apply:

    "russian big landing ship «Caesar Kunikov» (BDK-64) has been hit, burned and is sinking in the Black Sea."

    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757654903567081729

    A ship built in Poland:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ship_Caesar_Kunikov

    Alleged video:
    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757675563597140165

    The Black Sea Fleet is not having a good war.
    Does Ukraine even have a navy anymore? Punching above their weight at sea, thankfully.
    The thing that stands out to me is how rubbish the point defences on the Russian ships are.

    On paper, they love their Gatling guns

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kashtan_CIWS

    And similar. Also other light weapons.

    Yet they seem to have great trouble stopping smallish speed boats.

    In the West, after the USS Cole incident, Phalanx was given some new software and was found to be extremely effective - even in high sea states. Lots of testing. Other weapons added as well - less automated light cannon, mostly.

    In one previous video, they were definitely shooting at the drones, but seemed to be unloading into the sea. Almost randomly.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,412
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Usual caveats apply:

    "russian big landing ship «Caesar Kunikov» (BDK-64) has been hit, burned and is sinking in the Black Sea."

    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757654903567081729

    A ship built in Poland:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ship_Caesar_Kunikov

    Named after HSU Major Tsezar Kunikov who was killed on the same day in 1943. Top trolling, if deliberate.
    These smoking related accidents are really getting out of hand.
    Not so much Lucky Strike as a tragedy of Hamlet proportions.
    A video of what really happened

    https://youtu.be/4yAcmDQdcHA?si=ukg4I3H0aO6aVtjo
    ...
    The submarine in that was a real model, built by the owner of the model shop in North Oxford. He spent ages building it to launch model torpedoes. But it was too fast for the camera shot, so they got rid of most of the elaborate work.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,762
    edited February 14
    ...

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Unfortunately this is a by-election dominated by a quarrel in a far-away country between people of whom we know far, far too much.

    There are conflicts all around the world that don't get a fraction of the spotlight or attention that this one has had. I wonder what is so unique about this one conflict, that every moment becomes headline news unlike all the others?

    The physical carnage, the huge civilian casualties, the mass displacement of people, the resulting humanitarian disaster, the inflictor of all this being a regime supported by the west - these do make for a big story.
    "the inflictor of all this being a regime supported by the west".

    I think you might need to understand that this awful conflict was blatantly started by Hamas who "inflicted" rape torture and murder on innocent people.

    There is a reasonable argument that the Israeli response has been disproportionate, but the "infliction" was initiated by Hamas terrorists.

    As you have been an occasional apologist for Corbyn (and probably indirectly voted for him to be PM) I guess this is hard to recognise?
    I know who started the fire. Hamas did. Oct 7th was unspeakable. It's now 13th February and Israel has wreaked a mighty vengeance for it.

    Justifiable response to a threat deemed existential? Or barbaric collective punishment of the population of Gaza?

    I think the latter.
    I think you'll find that war does involve what useful idiots such as yourself would call "collective punishment".
    Collective punishment is a war crime under Article 33 of the Geneva Convention. People who make excuses for it are idiots, useful or otherwise.
    That's why I put it in quotation marks. Or perhaps Kinabalu thinks what Israel is doing is a war crime.
    Well many of us do.
    Yes hugely important that arseholes on the internet think something or other.
    The arseholes being those who defend the murder of civilians as a necessary evil.

    You suit the description perfectly.
    It's war, Dickie boy. Look it up in the dictionary.
    Indeed hence war crimes. Look them up yourself.
    I suspect the proportion of military combatants to civilians was far smaller ratio in the Hamburg firestorm and the levelling of Dresden. But we weren't on trial at Nuremburg.

    Is it a free pass for war crimes if you win the war?
    Nope. Many commentators these days consider Dresden as a war crime. Indeed there is no escaping that for Harris as his explicit stated aim of breaking the German spirit by targeting civilians is specifically addressed as a war crime today.

    The UK, and importantly in this debate, Israel both signed up to the post WW2 international rules on the conduct of war which outlawed many of the things both sides did in WW2 and which Israel and Russia are both doing now.
    Personally I think only idiots living without the fear of Nazi tyranny consider Dresden a war crime. Why Dresden and not every single bombing raid that Bomber Command mounted? Because like it or not, Bomber Command wanted to achieve Dresden results EVERY time they set out. Dresden stands out as it was late in the war, and was highly successful, due to the firestorm. But many, many allied soldiers died after Dresden. Many Jews and other captives of the Nazis died after Dresden. Germany could have surrendered and stopped it all.
    I know very little about WW2.
    But was Bomber Command strategy basically predicated on the idea that bombing Germany out of the war would save the innumerable slaughter witnessed in WW1?
    Yep. Harris wanted to defeat Germany without the need for any British soldiers to land on the continent, other than to accept the surrender. There have been many arguments over the years about whether Bomber Command was worth the money and resources (materials and men) that it took. Max Hastings thought not in his book on the bomber war. Others disagree. Certainly the bombing campaign tied up tens if not hundreds of thousands of Germans defending the Reich who could have been fighting in the East. And combined with the 8th airforce’s campaign, the Allies achieved air dominance over the Luftwaffe, making D-Day much easier and restricting German movements to night time, to avoid being attacked from the air. By the end of 44 and into 45 the German transport system was wrecked, so moving anything was hard, including troops, tanks etc.

    Sadly the idea that you could depress the morale of a nation under a fascist authoritarian regime was false. Even if a German housewife wanted to end the war after her house was destroyed, there was no mechanism for her to achieve it. And the Blitz had shown the resilience of the Brits under the bomb.

    But ultimately strategic bombing contributed to winning the war and to describe one target destroyed as a war crime is infantile rubbish.
    There were lots of things done on both sides in both wars which would now be considered war crimes. The whole point of civilisation is that we develop and learn from our mistakes.
    My view is that war is never desirable, but once one is engaged, there’s no point in half measures.

    Ultimately one has to do what is needful, to win. There is nothing worse than defeat.
    Chemical warfare? Biological warfare? Terrorising an occupied population with retaliatory executions and the use of rape as a tool of suppression?

    We draw the line somewhere and where International Law has currently drawn it seems a pretty good place to me.

    (By the way I am not accusing Israel of any of these just pointing out that your 'half measures' might be very much open to interpretation).

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Unfortunately this is a by-election dominated by a quarrel in a far-away country between people of whom we know far, far too much.

    There are conflicts all around the world that don't get a fraction of the spotlight or attention that this one has had. I wonder what is so unique about this one conflict, that every moment becomes headline news unlike all the others?

    The physical carnage, the huge civilian casualties, the mass displacement of people, the resulting humanitarian disaster, the inflictor of all this being a regime supported by the west - these do make for a big story.
    "the inflictor of all this being a regime supported by the west".

    I think you might need to understand that this awful conflict was blatantly started by Hamas who "inflicted" rape torture and murder on innocent people.

    There is a reasonable argument that the Israeli response has been disproportionate, but the "infliction" was initiated by Hamas terrorists.

    As you have been an occasional apologist for Corbyn (and probably indirectly voted for him to be PM) I guess this is hard to recognise?
    I know who started the fire. Hamas did. Oct 7th was unspeakable. It's now 13th February and Israel has wreaked a mighty vengeance for it.

    Justifiable response to a threat deemed existential? Or barbaric collective punishment of the population of Gaza?

    I think the latter.
    I think you'll find that war does involve what useful idiots such as yourself would call "collective punishment".
    Collective punishment is a war crime under Article 33 of the Geneva Convention. People who make excuses for it are idiots, useful or otherwise.
    That's why I put it in quotation marks. Or perhaps Kinabalu thinks what Israel is doing is a war crime.
    Well many of us do.
    Yes hugely important that arseholes on the internet think something or other.
    The arseholes being those who defend the murder of civilians as a necessary evil.

    You suit the description perfectly.
    It's war, Dickie boy. Look it up in the dictionary.
    Indeed hence war crimes. Look them up yourself.
    I suspect the proportion of military combatants to civilians was far smaller ratio in the Hamburg firestorm and the levelling of Dresden. But we weren't on trial at Nuremburg.

    Is it a free pass for war crimes if you win the war?
    Nope. Many commentators these days consider Dresden as a war crime. Indeed there is no escaping that for Harris as his explicit stated aim of breaking the German spirit by targeting civilians is specifically addressed as a war crime today.

    The UK, and importantly in this debate, Israel both signed up to the post WW2 international rules on the conduct of war which outlawed many of the things both sides did in WW2 and which Israel and Russia are both doing now.
    Personally I think only idiots living without the fear of Nazi tyranny consider Dresden a war crime. Why Dresden and not every single bombing raid that Bomber Command mounted? Because like it or not, Bomber Command wanted to achieve Dresden results EVERY time they set out. Dresden stands out as it was late in the war, and was highly successful, due to the firestorm. But many, many allied soldiers died after Dresden. Many Jews and other captives of the Nazis died after Dresden. Germany could have surrendered and stopped it all.
    I know very little about WW2.
    But was Bomber Command strategy basically predicated on the idea that bombing Germany out of the war would save the innumerable slaughter witnessed in WW1?
    Yep. Harris wanted to defeat Germany without the need for any British soldiers to land on the continent, other than to accept the surrender. There have been many arguments over the years about whether Bomber Command was worth the money and resources (materials and men) that it took. Max Hastings thought not in his book on the bomber war. Others disagree. Certainly the bombing campaign tied up tens if not hundreds of thousands of Germans defending the Reich who could have been fighting in the East. And combined with the 8th airforce’s campaign, the Allies achieved air dominance over the Luftwaffe, making D-Day much easier and restricting German movements to night time, to avoid being attacked from the air. By the end of 44 and into 45 the German transport system was wrecked, so moving anything was hard, including troops, tanks etc.

    Sadly the idea that you could depress the morale of a nation under a fascist authoritarian regime was false. Even if a German housewife wanted to end the war after her house was destroyed, there was no mechanism for her to achieve it. And the Blitz had shown the resilience of the Brits under the bomb.

    But ultimately strategic bombing contributed to winning the war and to describe one target destroyed as a war crime is infantile rubbish.
    There were lots of things done on both sides in both wars which would now be considered war crimes. The whole point of civilisation is that we develop and learn from our mistakes.
    My view is that war is never desirable, but once one is engaged, there’s no point in half measures.

    Ultimately one has to do what is needful, to win. There is nothing worse than defeat.
    Chemical warfare? Biological warfare? Terrorising an occupied population with retaliatory executions and the use of rape as a tool of suppression?

    We draw the line somewhere and where International Law has currently drawn it seems a pretty good place to me.

    (By the way I am not accusing Israel of any of these just pointing out that your 'half measures' might be very much open to interpretation).
    It depends on the nature of the threat that one faces. If say, this country faced an invasion, or we were fighting an enemy like the Nazis, I don’t think we’d show much restraint.

    When the stakes are lower, one shows more restraint.
    That's a very reasonable point.

    And the problem is the hypocrisy of those who find the stakes minimal in the Middle East as they don't care about Israel, who then expect zero civilian casualties as a result. For Israel the stakes are massive.

    War is hell and war results in casualties, civilian casualties included.

    We went to war against Iraq without having been attacked and hundreds of thousands of civilians died as a result.
    Israel was attacked, and is defending itself in a war against an existential enemy that wants to destroy it, and people argue that they're illegitimate for fighting a war to defend themselves because of tens of thousands of alleged civilian casualties.

    What is that other than hypocrisy?

    Israel has every bit as much of a right to defend itself as any other nation. It has every bit as much of a right to fight this war to the best of its ability as any other nation. If that results in hundreds of thousands of Palestinian civilian casualties, just as our war resulted in hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilian casualties, then so long as they continue to stick to the rules of proportionality then it is not a war crime.

    That's a horrible thing to say, but war is horrible - and Hamas started this war knowing the consequences of their actions.

    Want an end to civilian casualties? Then there's a simple solution: Hamas lays down their arms unconditionally and releases the hostages. Otherwise the war continues.
    Hamas are not rational, they are not like Joe Gormley's NUM and will capitulate over beer and sandwiches, they are a death cult. If you think otherwise you are deluded.

    If Netanyahu had spent more time dealing with the grandees out of their Doha condominium windows rather than carpet bombing Gaza City I suspect his allies would be less uncomfortable with his strategy.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085

    Want an end to civilian casualties? Then there's a simple solution: Hamas lays down their arms unconditionally and releases the hostages. Otherwise the war continues.

    Exactly what David Cameron (pbuh) said yesterday in the HoL.

    And we know that DC can say or do no wrong.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085
    But.

    Today is not going to be an Israel/Palestinian day for me; I think people have a vague understanding of where I stand on the matter so please let me know if anything I have said to date is unclear.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883

    kle4 said:

    Usual caveats apply:

    "russian big landing ship «Caesar Kunikov» (BDK-64) has been hit, burned and is sinking in the Black Sea."

    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757654903567081729

    A ship built in Poland:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ship_Caesar_Kunikov

    Alleged video:
    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757675563597140165

    The Black Sea Fleet is not having a good war.
    Does Ukraine even have a navy anymore? Punching above their weight at sea, thankfully.
    The thing that stands out to me is how rubbish the point defences on the Russian ships are.

    On paper, they love their Gatling guns

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kashtan_CIWS

    And similar. Also other light weapons.

    Yet they seem to have great trouble stopping smallish speed boats.

    In the West, after the USS Cole incident, Phalanx was given some new software and was found to be extremely effective - even in high sea states. Lots of testing. Other weapons added as well - less automated light cannon, mostly.

    In one previous video, they were definitely shooting at the drones, but seemed to be unloading into the sea. Almost randomly.
    You would think that they might have improved too, given that the drones should be the easier of the two main threats that Russian warships have to defend against.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085
    DESPITE THE PROVOCATION FROM eg MEXICANPETE
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032

    Ratters said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Inflation stays at 4%

    Prices were rising about 1% per month in Feb-May last year. So hard not to see a fall in the annual rate over the spring.
    Agreed.

    Cumulative inflation over the last 8 months has now been a total of 0.2%.

    If we get relatively normal month-on-month prints over the next four months, we could easily see headline inflation fall to 2% or below.
    Which is why Sunak won’t call an election in May, but it won’t be enough to save him,
    May be enough to save quite a number of his MPs though.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,762
    ...
    TOPPING said:

    DESPITE THE PROVOCATION FROM eg MEXICANPETE

    Stop shouting at me!
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 11,138

    Up in London, suited and booted for a big presentation today. Wish me luck.

    Will let you know when I can whether it did me any good!

    Good luck
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032

    Remember when we used to worry about a Russian amphibious landing near Odessa?

    Not as much as Russian marines did!
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 11,138
    kle4 said:

    Usual caveats apply:

    "russian big landing ship «Caesar Kunikov» (BDK-64) has been hit, burned and is sinking in the Black Sea."

    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757654903567081729

    A ship built in Poland:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ship_Caesar_Kunikov

    Alleged video:
    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757675563597140165

    The Black Sea Fleet is not having a good war.
    Does Ukraine even have a navy anymore? Punching above their weight at sea, thankfully.
    They seem to. Admittedly the boats are very very small and they don't have many sailors.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,742

    Usual caveats apply:

    "russian big landing ship «Caesar Kunikov» (BDK-64) has been hit, burned and is sinking in the Black Sea."

    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757654903567081729

    A ship built in Poland:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ship_Caesar_Kunikov

    Named after HSU Major Tsezar Kunikov who was killed on the same day in 1943. Top trolling, if deliberate.
    It's kind of nuts to think the Ukrainian intelligence services are considering things like "will it make a good meme?" when planning their attacks.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,412

    kle4 said:

    Usual caveats apply:

    "russian big landing ship «Caesar Kunikov» (BDK-64) has been hit, burned and is sinking in the Black Sea."

    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757654903567081729

    A ship built in Poland:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ship_Caesar_Kunikov

    Alleged video:
    https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757675563597140165

    The Black Sea Fleet is not having a good war.
    Does Ukraine even have a navy anymore? Punching above their weight at sea, thankfully.
    The thing that stands out to me is how rubbish the point defences on the Russian ships are.

    On paper, they love their Gatling guns

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kashtan_CIWS

    And similar. Also other light weapons.

    Yet they seem to have great trouble stopping smallish speed boats.

    In the West, after the USS Cole incident, Phalanx was given some new software and was found to be extremely effective - even in high sea states. Lots of testing. Other weapons added as well - less automated light cannon, mostly.

    In one previous video, they were definitely shooting at the drones, but seemed to be unloading into the sea. Almost randomly.
    You would think that they might have improved too, given that the drones should be the easier of the two main threats that Russian warships have to defend against.
    In the history of naval gunnery, a threat heading towards you at about 20-30 knots is one of the easier ones.

    Getting a radar lock on a small object among waves used to be a problem, but apparently software eliminates that as an issue, these days. Essentially noise removal algorithms.

    Hence Phalanx going from useless against small boats to "Your dead"
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085

    ...

    TOPPING said:

    DESPITE THE PROVOCATION FROM eg MEXICANPETE

    Stop shouting at me!
    I WAS SHOUTING ABOUT YOU NOT AT YOU.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 26,553
    TOPPING said:

    Want an end to civilian casualties? Then there's a simple solution: Hamas lays down their arms unconditionally and releases the hostages. Otherwise the war continues.

    Exactly what David Cameron (pbuh) said yesterday in the HoL.

    And we know that DC can say or do no wrong.
    But ever civilian casualty recruits more people into Hamas rather than sitting on the sidelines.

    Even before you see the complete lack of hope that Israel is offering everyone in Gaza which again will be pushing people towards actively supporting Hamas because they’ve got nothing else so they may as well.

  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,412

    ...

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Unfortunately this is a by-election dominated by a quarrel in a far-away country between people of whom we know far, far too much.

    There are conflicts all around the world that don't get a fraction of the spotlight or attention that this one has had. I wonder what is so unique about this one conflict, that every moment becomes headline news unlike all the others?

    The physical carnage, the huge civilian casualties, the mass displacement of people, the resulting humanitarian disaster, the inflictor of all this being a regime supported by the west - these do make for a big story.
    "the inflictor of all this being a regime supported by the west".

    I think you might need to understand that this awful conflict was blatantly started by Hamas who "inflicted" rape torture and murder on innocent people.

    There is a reasonable argument that the Israeli response has been disproportionate, but the "infliction" was initiated by Hamas terrorists.

    As you have been an occasional apologist for Corbyn (and probably indirectly voted for him to be PM) I guess this is hard to recognise?
    I know who started the fire. Hamas did. Oct 7th was unspeakable. It's now 13th February and Israel has wreaked a mighty vengeance for it.

    Justifiable response to a threat deemed existential? Or barbaric collective punishment of the population of Gaza?

    I think the latter.
    I think you'll find that war does involve what useful idiots such as yourself would call "collective punishment".
    Collective punishment is a war crime under Article 33 of the Geneva Convention. People who make excuses for it are idiots, useful or otherwise.
    That's why I put it in quotation marks. Or perhaps Kinabalu thinks what Israel is doing is a war crime.
    Well many of us do.
    Yes hugely important that arseholes on the internet think something or other.
    The arseholes being those who defend the murder of civilians as a necessary evil.

    You suit the description perfectly.
    It's war, Dickie boy. Look it up in the dictionary.
    Indeed hence war crimes. Look them up yourself.
    I suspect the proportion of military combatants to civilians was far smaller ratio in the Hamburg firestorm and the levelling of Dresden. But we weren't on trial at Nuremburg.

    Is it a free pass for war crimes if you win the war?
    Nope. Many commentators these days consider Dresden as a war crime. Indeed there is no escaping that for Harris as his explicit stated aim of breaking the German spirit by targeting civilians is specifically addressed as a war crime today.

    The UK, and importantly in this debate, Israel both signed up to the post WW2 international rules on the conduct of war which outlawed many of the things both sides did in WW2 and which Israel and Russia are both doing now.
    Personally I think only idiots living without the fear of Nazi tyranny consider Dresden a war crime. Why Dresden and not every single bombing raid that Bomber Command mounted? Because like it or not, Bomber Command wanted to achieve Dresden results EVERY time they set out. Dresden stands out as it was late in the war, and was highly successful, due to the firestorm. But many, many allied soldiers died after Dresden. Many Jews and other captives of the Nazis died after Dresden. Germany could have surrendered and stopped it all.
    I know very little about WW2.
    But was Bomber Command strategy basically predicated on the idea that bombing Germany out of the war would save the innumerable slaughter witnessed in WW1?
    Yep. Harris wanted to defeat Germany without the need for any British soldiers to land on the continent, other than to accept the surrender. There have been many arguments over the years about whether Bomber Command was worth the money and resources (materials and men) that it took. Max Hastings thought not in his book on the bomber war. Others disagree. Certainly the bombing campaign tied up tens if not hundreds of thousands of Germans defending the Reich who could have been fighting in the East. And combined with the 8th airforce’s campaign, the Allies achieved air dominance over the Luftwaffe, making D-Day much easier and restricting German movements to night time, to avoid being attacked from the air. By the end of 44 and into 45 the German transport system was wrecked, so moving anything was hard, including troops, tanks etc.

    Sadly the idea that you could depress the morale of a nation under a fascist authoritarian regime was false. Even if a German housewife wanted to end the war after her house was destroyed, there was no mechanism for her to achieve it. And the Blitz had shown the resilience of the Brits under the bomb.

    But ultimately strategic bombing contributed to winning the war and to describe one target destroyed as a war crime is infantile rubbish.
    There were lots of things done on both sides in both wars which would now be considered war crimes. The whole point of civilisation is that we develop and learn from our mistakes.
    My view is that war is never desirable, but once one is engaged, there’s no point in half measures.

    Ultimately one has to do what is needful, to win. There is nothing worse than defeat.
    Chemical warfare? Biological warfare? Terrorising an occupied population with retaliatory executions and the use of rape as a tool of suppression?

    We draw the line somewhere and where International Law has currently drawn it seems a pretty good place to me.

    (By the way I am not accusing Israel of any of these just pointing out that your 'half measures' might be very much open to interpretation).

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Unfortunately this is a by-election dominated by a quarrel in a far-away country between people of whom we know far, far too much.

    There are conflicts all around the world that don't get a fraction of the spotlight or attention that this one has had. I wonder what is so unique about this one conflict, that every moment becomes headline news unlike all the others?

    The physical carnage, the huge civilian casualties, the mass displacement of people, the resulting humanitarian disaster, the inflictor of all this being a regime supported by the west - these do make for a big story.
    "the inflictor of all this being a regime supported by the west".

    I think you might need to understand that this awful conflict was blatantly started by Hamas who "inflicted" rape torture and murder on innocent people.

    There is a reasonable argument that the Israeli response has been disproportionate, but the "infliction" was initiated by Hamas terrorists.

    As you have been an occasional apologist for Corbyn (and probably indirectly voted for him to be PM) I guess this is hard to recognise?
    I know who started the fire. Hamas did. Oct 7th was unspeakable. It's now 13th February and Israel has wreaked a mighty vengeance for it.

    Justifiable response to a threat deemed existential? Or barbaric collective punishment of the population of Gaza?

    I think the latter.
    I think you'll find that war does involve what useful idiots such as yourself would call "collective punishment".
    Collective punishment is a war crime under Article 33 of the Geneva Convention. People who make excuses for it are idiots, useful or otherwise.
    That's why I put it in quotation marks. Or perhaps Kinabalu thinks what Israel is doing is a war crime.
    Well many of us do.
    Yes hugely important that arseholes on the internet think something or other.
    The arseholes being those who defend the murder of civilians as a necessary evil.

    You suit the description perfectly.
    It's war, Dickie boy. Look it up in the dictionary.
    Indeed hence war crimes. Look them up yourself.
    I suspect the proportion of military combatants to civilians was far smaller ratio in the Hamburg firestorm and the levelling of Dresden. But we weren't on trial at Nuremburg.

    Is it a free pass for war crimes if you win the war?
    Nope. Many commentators these days consider Dresden as a war crime. Indeed there is no escaping that for Harris as his explicit stated aim of breaking the German spirit by targeting civilians is specifically addressed as a war crime today.

    The UK, and importantly in this debate, Israel both signed up to the post WW2 international rules on the conduct of war which outlawed many of the things both sides did in WW2 and which Israel and Russia are both doing now.
    Personally I think only idiots living without the fear of Nazi tyranny consider Dresden a war crime. Why Dresden and not every single bombing raid that Bomber Command mounted? Because like it or not, Bomber Command wanted to achieve Dresden results EVERY time they set out. Dresden stands out as it was late in the war, and was highly successful, due to the firestorm. But many, many allied soldiers died after Dresden. Many Jews and other captives of the Nazis died after Dresden. Germany could have surrendered and stopped it all.
    I know very little about WW2.
    But was Bomber Command strategy basically predicated on the idea that bombing Germany out of the war would save the innumerable slaughter witnessed in WW1?
    Yep. Harris wanted to defeat Germany without the need for any British soldiers to land on the continent, other than to accept the surrender. There have been many arguments over the years about whether Bomber Command was worth the money and resources (materials and men) that it took. Max Hastings thought not in his book on the bomber war. Others disagree. Certainly the bombing campaign tied up tens if not hundreds of thousands of Germans defending the Reich who could have been fighting in the East. And combined with the 8th airforce’s campaign, the Allies achieved air dominance over the Luftwaffe, making D-Day much easier and restricting German movements to night time, to avoid being attacked from the air. By the end of 44 and into 45 the German transport system was wrecked, so moving anything was hard, including troops, tanks etc.

    Sadly the idea that you could depress the morale of a nation under a fascist authoritarian regime was false. Even if a German housewife wanted to end the war after her house was destroyed, there was no mechanism for her to achieve it. And the Blitz had shown the resilience of the Brits under the bomb.

    But ultimately strategic bombing contributed to winning the war and to describe one target destroyed as a war crime is infantile rubbish.
    There were lots of things done on both sides in both wars which would now be considered war crimes. The whole point of civilisation is that we develop and learn from our mistakes.
    My view is that war is never desirable, but once one is engaged, there’s no point in half measures.

    Ultimately one has to do what is needful, to win. There is nothing worse than defeat.
    Chemical warfare? Biological warfare? Terrorising an occupied population with retaliatory executions and the use of rape as a tool of suppression?

    We draw the line somewhere and where International Law has currently drawn it seems a pretty good place to me.

    (By the way I am not accusing Israel of any of these just pointing out that your 'half measures' might be very much open to interpretation).
    It depends on the nature of the threat that one faces. If say, this country faced an invasion, or we were fighting an enemy like the Nazis, I don’t think we’d show much restraint.

    When the stakes are lower, one shows more restraint.
    That's a very reasonable point.

    And the problem is the hypocrisy of those who find the stakes minimal in the Middle East as they don't care about Israel, who then expect zero civilian casualties as a result. For Israel the stakes are massive.

    War is hell and war results in casualties, civilian casualties included.

    We went to war against Iraq without having been attacked and hundreds of thousands of civilians died as a result.
    Israel was attacked, and is defending itself in a war against an existential enemy that wants to destroy it, and people argue that they're illegitimate for fighting a war to defend themselves because of tens of thousands of alleged civilian casualties.

    What is that other than hypocrisy?

    Israel has every bit as much of a right to defend itself as any other nation. It has every bit as much of a right to fight this war to the best of its ability as any other nation. If that results in hundreds of thousands of Palestinian civilian casualties, just as our war resulted in hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilian casualties, then so long as they continue to stick to the rules of proportionality then it is not a war crime.

    That's a horrible thing to say, but war is horrible - and Hamas started this war knowing the consequences of their actions.

    Want an end to civilian casualties? Then there's a simple solution: Hamas lays down their arms unconditionally and releases the hostages. Otherwise the war continues.
    Hamas are not rational, they are not like Joe Gormley's NUM and will capitulate over beer and sandwiches, they are a death cult. If you think otherwise you are deluded.

    If Netanyahu had spent more time dealing with the grandees out of their Doha condominium windows rather than carpet bombing Gaza City I suspect his allies would be less uncomfortable with his strategy.
    In An Alternate Universe

    Journalist : Do you have any common on the recent demise of X, a leader of Hamas?

    Israeli spokesperson : No

    Journalist: Isn't it unusual for someone to be trampled to death by an extinct breed of rhino? in their hotel room? On the ceiling?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    This week will see Russian losses pass through 9,500 artillery pieces, 12,000 armoured fighting vehicles, maybe 6,500 tanks and through 400,000 casualties.

    The worst aspect of those numbers is they are all to get Putin "democratically" elected.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,762

    This week will see Russian losses pass through 9,500 artillery pieces, 12,000 armoured fighting vehicles, maybe 6,500 tanks and through 400,000 casualties.

    The worst aspect of those numbers is they are all to get Putin "democratically" elected.

    It's a model his chum in Mar-a-Lago can work on should he get elected in November.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Want an end to civilian casualties? Then there's a simple solution: Hamas lays down their arms unconditionally and releases the hostages. Otherwise the war continues.

    Exactly what David Cameron (pbuh) said yesterday in the HoL.

    And we know that DC can say or do no wrong.
    But ever civilian casualty recruits more people into Hamas rather than sitting on the sidelines.

    Even before you see the complete lack of hope that Israel is offering everyone in Gaza which again will be pushing people towards actively supporting Hamas because they’ve got nothing else so they may as well.

    I mean Hamas as we all agree is responsible for this. Is Israel overdoing it now? You say yes I say tomato. But as @Stark_Dawning all those weeks ago noted, this is precisely what Hamas wanted. Provoke Israel and reap the rewards out of the resulting destruction.

    Everyone says oh but people in Gaza were too young to vote for Hamas 17 years ago so they are innocent. But would you really join a cult whose wholly unnecessary actions are responsible for thousands of deaths of your fellow countrymen and which has said it will do it all again given half a chance? If so good luck to them all.

    And that's it folks - stuff to do. Enjoy.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,159
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Want an end to civilian casualties? Then there's a simple solution: Hamas lays down their arms unconditionally and releases the hostages. Otherwise the war continues.

    Exactly what David Cameron (pbuh) said yesterday in the HoL.

    And we know that DC can say or do no wrong.
    But ever civilian casualty recruits more people into Hamas rather than sitting on the sidelines.

    Even before you see the complete lack of hope that Israel is offering everyone in Gaza which again will be pushing people towards actively supporting Hamas because they’ve got nothing else so they may as well.

    Indeed. Nor do they offer any hope to Palestinians in the West Bank either. Nor that much to Arab Israelis.

    The conflict in Northern Ireland was ended because the conditions of the Catholic population were improved. The conflict in the Basque country was ended because the conditions of the Basque population were improved. And so on.
  • Options
    PJH said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Inflation stays at 4%

    *brushes fingernails quietly*

    Next up, did the UK really suffer a technical recession in Q4 and Q1? I think not.
    It's easy to get carried away by the technical details and for the government to pop the champagne and slap each other on the back for a job well done in lowering inflation. Out in the real world, mortgages are as costly and as unaffordable as they've ever been and hundreds of thousands of mortgage holders have still yet to remortgage onto much higher rates. Energy bills are still crippling, food still going up. Mortgage arrears are at their highest rate since the GFC. Business insolvency ditto. It's grim out there
    The inflation figures don't lie, but they ain't telling the truth either.
    Oh I agree with all of that. Real wages are rising by more than 2% a year on average now but that does not come close to offsetting the additional costs borne by those with mortgages in particular. Many people are struggling and 4% inflation is not great. Some lenders are edging their mortgage offers back up again now on the assumption that base rates are going to fall more slowly than once thought. That is very much the way I see it, particularly if I am right that a technical recession is avoided.
    Don't forget that about a year ago, inflation was 11% and pay rises were at best 5-6%; so if you're working for a typical employer such as mine this year offering about 1-2% above inflation it will take about another 3 years or so to close that gap before people start feeling better than slightly less badly off compared to before.
    In reality people were on average about 3% worse off for a year and nearly half of that has already been recovered.

    But what is forgotten is how much real pay increased in 2021.

    From the ONS:

    Total pay (real):

    Jan-Mar 2020 +0.5%
    Apr-Jun 2020 -1.8%
    Jul-Sep 2020 +0.7%
    Oct-Dec 2020 +3.8%
    Jan-Mar 2021 +3.2%
    Apr-Jun 2021 +6.8%
    Jul-Sep 2021 +3.1%
    Oct-Dec 2021 +0.2%
    Jan-Mar 2022 +1.4%
    Apr-Jun 2022 -2.4%
    Jul-Sep 2022 -2.7%
    Oct-Dec 2022 -2.8%
    Jan-Mar 2023 -2.6%
    Apr-Jun 2023 +0.7%
    Jul-Sep 2023 +1.4%
    Oct-Dec 2023 +1.4%

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/timeseries/a3ww/lms

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/latest

    There's also the extra handouts people received, the £400 energy subsidy and the month's council tax rebate plus much more for the poor and oldies.
This discussion has been closed.