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What to read in to this? – politicalbetting.com
What to read in to this? – politicalbetting.com
.@SimonWDC on Democrats flipping George Santos’ seat: Something dramatic and historic is happening. Democrats keep over performing expectations, and Republicans keep struggling. It's showing up in every kind of race, all over the country pic.twitter.com/HOQFKktST8
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I hope.
"russian big landing ship «Caesar Kunikov» (BDK-64) has been hit, burned and is sinking in the Black Sea."
https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757654903567081729
A ship built in Poland:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_ship_Caesar_Kunikov
It's a good job they never use legal process for partisan fuckwittery. I'd hate to see what *that* looked like.
But given the complex dynamics at play, I'd be wary of reading too much into a Dem win. A Republican win would have been significant because it would suggest swing voters really are nervous about the Dems despite everything. But less so the other way.
Suozzi (Dem) - 53.9%
Pilip (Rep) - 46.1%
Biden apparently won the District by 8% in 2020 so it's bang in line with that.
Bipartisan commission must put forward new maps by the end of this month. The New York legislature (Dem controlled) will then vote whether to approve them.
If legislature rejects, legislature then draws its own maps.
So essentially there are going to be new maps which will be more Dem friendly.
I still cannot see Trump winning in November.
But when it comes to an actual election, they are still Dems, so of course they will vote for Biden/Dems.
This excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco.
Instinct still says yes. They are unenthused by Biden but everything I'm seeing suggests Trump is toxic to them. Every poll, every election, every response they are giving to policy surveys.
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1757561369212162209?s=12
Or what a little quadcopter hobby drone carrying a grenade, can do to one of those fancy new T-90 tanks:
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1757201451342827829?s=12
The less said about what a few little drone boats can do to the once-mighty Russian Navy, the better. Happy Valentine’s Day Putin, with love from Ukraine & friends.
Next up, did the UK really suffer a technical recession in Q4 and Q1? I think not.
Cumulative inflation over the last 8 months has now been a total of 0.2%.
If we get relatively normal month-on-month prints over the next four months, we could easily see headline inflation fall to 2% or below.
I'm still slightly concerned, but not overly so.
Besides, if Biden is really declining as Trump already has, then which inner circle team do you want to be running things - because Biden's team seem to be doing a good job.
Another reason why the working classes really shouldn't have the vote.
https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/transformingsociety/electionsvoting/chartists/overview/chartistmovement/
If we just avoid recession tomorrow and the Tories start crowing about how their economic plan is delivering, they are in deep trouble.
But - one thing I would say is that the Dems have a clear lead in terms of voter loyalty. The last time they lost the popular vote by more than five points was in 1988. So they haven't much work to do to bolt on independents to win comfortably, as Biden and Obama showed. Or indeed the 2022 Senate elections.
The catch is that because these voters are concentrated in a minority of states, they have to work the right voters in the right areas to win the Presidency, which Clinton was very bad at. Will Biden be as good next time as in 2020? Probably not, but as Trump will be worse it may cancel it out.
Tom Suozzi, the Democrat won by a larger margin than expected, about 59% to 41%. I don't think the GOP will be relieved.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6_hu-7zsg0
https://twitter.com/walter_report/status/1757675563597140165
The Black Sea Fleet is not having a good war.
Trump calls Republican candidate Mazi Pilip “this very foolish woman” after she loses the House special election in New York, saying it’s because she wasn’t MAGA enough.
https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1757663418297778192
As already posted above, the almost final result (97% counted) was:
Suozzi (Dem) - 53.9%
Pilip (Rep) - 46.1%
So they end up with a different type of boom!
Basically, they have the resources to continue on the offensive through the rest of this year and next after which things become much more problematic. Russia is now estimated to have lost 87% of the army they invaded Ukraine with. It is a mind blowing level of loss. But the resources of Russia, and their huge stores of equipment and shells, allow them to continue, at least for now.
Ukraine really needs consistent levels of support. The approach of the House to the current Senate bill is going to be key. Europe also needs to sharply increase both its industrial capacity and output of ammunition. This is urgent.
You look at the map and it’s about as bad as it could possibly be for the Dems. In fact, under normal circumstances you would swear blind they have no chance at all of a hold.
But if there are errors on this scale in the polling could some of the ones we’re assuming trending Republican swing the other way? Especially if people vote for Trump (for whatever lunatic reason) but don’t want him to have the trifecta?
Control of the Senate would be critical for Trump’s stated intention of dismantling the system. If he doesn’t have it, he’ll find it much harder to pack the SCOTUS, for a start. Or to get his nuttier cabinet members confirmed.
The inflation figures don't lie, but they ain't telling the truth either.
https://youtu.be/4yAcmDQdcHA?si=ukg4I3H0aO6aVtjo
Labour down 5% on this poll
Tomorrow's by elections should show if this is happening or if it is all smoke and mirrors
https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1757665864696971522?t=zfbTQL3aas6Qcnfmr03h_w&s=19
I think the Senate needs a miracle for the Dems to hold . They have a better chance in the House .
They did eventually get themselves together to vote to impeach Mayorkas though, at the second attempt.
With both houses so closely balanced, maintaining discipline is absolutely crucial.
Perhaps the postal votes might help them seeing as most would have been in before things went south.
https://news.sky.com/story/third-labour-politician-spoken-to-over-meeting-at-centre-of-antisemitism-row-13071272
The polls were actually quite accurate, overall, in 2022. But, the Republicans fell short in swing districts.
Sky News understands Mr Dad has been "spoken to" by Labour officials, but it is not yet clear if he made any contribution to the meeting and no further action has been taken.
Hopefully everyone he attracts results in two extra voters turning out to reject him, but I wouldn't count any chickens yet.
Bad narrative if we're in recession, no real benefit if not, since celebrating when things still feel very bad will go over poorly.
And remember special elections / by-elections caused by the transgressions of the previous member are a different kettle of fish. Looking at Wikipedia I’d say out of 11 recent UK by-elections not caused by death or moving to a different job (e.g. to be Mayor or something) only two were retained by the party who previously held the seat (Chester and Uxbridge). Put simply be a prat and your party usually gets punished.
And the problem is the hypocrisy of those who find the stakes minimal in the Middle East as they don't care about Israel, who then expect zero civilian casualties as a result. For Israel the stakes are massive.
War is hell and war results in casualties, civilian casualties included.
We went to war against Iraq without having been attacked and hundreds of thousands of civilians died as a result.
Israel was attacked, and is defending itself in a war against an existential enemy that wants to destroy it, and people argue that they're illegitimate for fighting a war to defend themselves because of tens of thousands of alleged civilian casualties.
What is that other than hypocrisy?
Israel has every bit as much of a right to defend itself as any other nation. It has every bit as much of a right to fight this war to the best of its ability as any other nation. If that results in hundreds of thousands of Palestinian civilian casualties, just as our war resulted in hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilian casualties, then so long as they continue to stick to the rules of proportionality then it is not a war crime.
That's a horrible thing to say, but war is horrible - and Hamas started this war knowing the consequences of their actions.
Want an end to civilian casualties? Then there's a simple solution: Hamas lays down their arms unconditionally and releases the hostages. Otherwise the war continues.
https://aboutkinmelhall.com/resources/victorians/victorian-cooking/how-to-make-soup-for-the-poor-the-victorian-way
On paper, they love their Gatling guns
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kashtan_CIWS
And similar. Also other light weapons.
Yet they seem to have great trouble stopping smallish speed boats.
In the West, after the USS Cole incident, Phalanx was given some new software and was found to be extremely effective - even in high sea states. Lots of testing. Other weapons added as well - less automated light cannon, mostly.
In one previous video, they were definitely shooting at the drones, but seemed to be unloading into the sea. Almost randomly.
If Netanyahu had spent more time dealing with the grandees out of their Doha condominium windows rather than carpet bombing Gaza City I suspect his allies would be less uncomfortable with his strategy.
And we know that DC can say or do no wrong.
Today is not going to be an Israel/Palestinian day for me; I think people have a vague understanding of where I stand on the matter so please let me know if anything I have said to date is unclear.
Will let you know when I can whether it did me any good!
Getting a radar lock on a small object among waves used to be a problem, but apparently software eliminates that as an issue, these days. Essentially noise removal algorithms.
Hence Phalanx going from useless against small boats to "Your dead"
Even before you see the complete lack of hope that Israel is offering everyone in Gaza which again will be pushing people towards actively supporting Hamas because they’ve got nothing else so they may as well.
Journalist : Do you have any common on the recent demise of X, a leader of Hamas?
Israeli spokesperson : No
Journalist: Isn't it unusual for someone to be trampled to death by an extinct breed of rhino? in their hotel room? On the ceiling?
The worst aspect of those numbers is they are all to get Putin "democratically" elected.
Everyone says oh but people in Gaza were too young to vote for Hamas 17 years ago so they are innocent. But would you really join a cult whose wholly unnecessary actions are responsible for thousands of deaths of your fellow countrymen and which has said it will do it all again given half a chance? If so good luck to them all.
And that's it folks - stuff to do. Enjoy.
The conflict in Northern Ireland was ended because the conditions of the Catholic population were improved. The conflict in the Basque country was ended because the conditions of the Basque population were improved. And so on.
But what is forgotten is how much real pay increased in 2021.
From the ONS:
Total pay (real):
Jan-Mar 2020 +0.5%
Apr-Jun 2020 -1.8%
Jul-Sep 2020 +0.7%
Oct-Dec 2020 +3.8%
Jan-Mar 2021 +3.2%
Apr-Jun 2021 +6.8%
Jul-Sep 2021 +3.1%
Oct-Dec 2021 +0.2%
Jan-Mar 2022 +1.4%
Apr-Jun 2022 -2.4%
Jul-Sep 2022 -2.7%
Oct-Dec 2022 -2.8%
Jan-Mar 2023 -2.6%
Apr-Jun 2023 +0.7%
Jul-Sep 2023 +1.4%
Oct-Dec 2023 +1.4%
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/timeseries/a3ww/lms
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/latest
There's also the extra handouts people received, the £400 energy subsidy and the month's council tax rebate plus much more for the poor and oldies.
I don't think wider British society has any idea how harmful the Windrush scandal has been for the Caribbean community. Hard not to see this as just another episode in a long history of mistreatment and exploitation that started in the sixteenth century. The racist intent of the hostile environment policy is plain for anyone who doesn't refuse to see it.