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The Return of the King at 100/1? – politicalbetting.com
The Return of the King at 100/1? – politicalbetting.com
Why it’s unlikely Lord Cameron would become PM again despite Tory plots to oust Sunak ? One MP tells @theipaper the Foreign Secretary is being floated by Tory plotters as a potential 'unity candidate' before the election? Analysis by @poppyeh https://t.co/LNeJFW39To
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But the scheme discussed in the header for a PM in the House of Lords which even in 1940 was unacceptable, is far more than a 100/1 shot.
How you arrange the mechanics I don't know. It would have to be along the lines of Sunak remaining PM until the GE, Cameron giving up his Peerage, Cameron fighting a safe seat at the GE on the basis he would then become leader post GE.
I guess technically he could become leader as soon as Parliament is dissolved because at that point there are no Conervative MPs and someone has to be leader if Rishi resigned as leader.
But I think it would be best for Rishi to remain PM until GE day to avoid charges of an unelected PM. But the Conservative Party would campaign on the basis that Cameron would take over the day after the GE.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/how-is-a-prime-minister-appointed/
House of Commons Library, 2022. It also mentions Sir Alec Douglas-Home.
Conservative Party rules.
https://public.conservatives.com/organisation-department/202101/Conservative Party Constitution as amended January 2021.pdf
It’s pretty clear in this by election. We have a choice of disgraced former Labour candidates - Ali, Galloway, Danczuk. We have a disgraced party - the Tories. Or we have the LibDems.
We know that people want to Get The Tories Out. Happily in Rochdale they don’t have a chance. Plenty of people also seem to want to vote for foaming dog fever. If you want to stop both, vote LibDem.
Why would he want to go back to be PM?
White House touts trilateral cooperation with S. Korea, Japan as key feat in Indo-Pacific Strategy
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=368659
..
At those sort of odds you don't really need much analysis but she's still an PM, has lots of experience, could do the job (Brexit is done) and is genuinely committed to the Conservatives.
If it really does totally collapse for Sunak after the locals there are far worse choices and, who knows, she might have even learnt something from 2017.
It seems this is coming true much earlier than I expected. There's something rotten in the way Labour chooses candidates. The same might be true for the other parties, as well.
That's for any party, in any form, over the next 36 years.
Given he's actually interested in politics there are worse bets and I could see that coming true once his football career is over.
Worst thing is that it would appear that at least some local party members had heard the comments - and voted for Ali anyway. Which means the CLP needs suspending. This wasn’t an HQ parachute candidate, the CLP actively chose him.
Factionalism drives everything rather than a proper process.
Labour has had to be dragged kicking and screaming to do the right thing in Rochdale as the Candidate was a Starmerite.
Aka Trump Org.
Trump endorses new RNC chair and Lara Trump as co-chair
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/12/trump-republican-national-committee-chair-whatley-00141061
Paul Waugh was asked to stand despite not qualifying under the rulebook as he wasn't a Labour member.
The process if purely factional and top-down and lacks any pretence of being what it should be ie selecting on merit.
He has been a right winger for as long as I can remember look at his record in Lancashire Labour.
Perhaps he believed austerity was the wrong way forward and only one of the 4 Candidates was arguing that in 2016
Sunak was facing a tough week - it has now turned into Christmas, Easter and his birthday all at once!
https://news.sky.com/story/this-is-sir-keir-starmers-biggest-crisis-as-labour-leader-and-there-may-be-worse-to-come-13070386
Laugh out loud hyperbole includes:
“Suddenly, the Rochdale disaster - 17 days before polling day in that by-election - plunges the two by-elections this week, in Wellingborough and Kingswood, into potential disarray.”
“This is far worse for Sir Keir and Labour than the "Red wall" Hartlepool by-election defeat in 2021 and the ULEZ backlash that handed victory to the Tories in Boris Johnson's Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency in July.”
“Labour's lead in the opinion polls has remained stubbornly around the 20% mark for months. That could now change. Will we see the beginning of the end of Labour's seemingly unassailable poll lead?
Is this a turning point for the Tories? Possibly.“
This is quickly following on from the hyperbole over Labours strong and sensible decision to retreat from an old and now unaffordable £140B spending commitment that wouldn’t have survived first contact with a pre budget OBR and possibly city markets too (aside from being so poorly itemised and defined for last two years it was becoming absolute gift to Sunak) - the media is surely driven not just by an election coming, but that one party is twenty points clear, so anything at all is now being elevated to “game changing” status, with these funny results like the Sky News analysis.
I ask you to compare Starmer’s “week from Hell” with a Primeminster about to lose two seats in by elections, face more internal party derision, and see the economy, often the flagship of government re-election campaigning, enter technical recession.
I post this on basis this sort of warped media frenzy doesn’t help or guide Political Betting at all, does it? You can even second guess the daft thing media commentators will do next in this mood - ignore what last 100 polls saying as well as all the other polls around the rogue poll, and big up the rogue poll as the game changing moment. 😏
Obviously Labour thinks that even saying that is unacceptable!
McDonald was suspended after saying: "We will not rest until we have justice. Until all people, Israelis and Palestinians, between the river and the sea, can live in peaceful liberty."
The person on the recording goes on to say Israel planned to "get rid of [Palestinians] from Gaza" and "grab" the land.
He also appears to boast about preventing Israeli flags being flown from local public buildings after the deadly attack by Hamas gunmen on 7 October.
I thought this thread was proposing an innovative solution to the US political situation
I don't think it's correct. If it is, they'd have killed more Gazans by now, but I don't see how it can be considered antisemitic
"We will not rest until we have justice. Until all people, Israelis and Palestinians, between the river and the sea, can live in peaceful liberty."
Is antisemitic these days in SKS land
And no not for him to become UK PM...
Next.
Lab good value at 6/4 now so time for me to go green on that too.
Peter_the_Punter said:
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There's not much liquidity in the market, so you have to look at last price matched. On Betfair that was 5.3 or about 9/2. I'm surprised it's that short though.
Lot of cat-lovers in Rochdale?
BigJohnOwls said:
Labour likely to suspend their candidate lump on Galloway
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/class-war-is-back-in-fashion-for-labour-gnzgk79hl
I did warn you about this last year.
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/11/06/class-warfare/
Stats show Starmer will have the most plebeian cabinet since Theresa May.
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1721114343071170769
"Up the workers" will be a welcome change from the "right up the workers" mentality of the posh Brexiteer twats in government the last few years.
Netenyau himself is as much opportunist as ideologue, so it's hard to be sure exactly what is his position.
https://www.politico.eu/article/prominent-settler-pushes-pm-benjamin-netanyahu-rebuild-israeli-homes-gaza/
...Still, Dagan is not a total outlier. Some in Israel’s defense establishment are also lobbying for a permanent change in Gaza. In mid-October, the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, an Israeli think tank founded by former security officials, urged Netanyahu to seize the “unique and rare opportunity to evacuate the whole Gaza Strip”.
That’s been echoed by the Israeli Intelligence Ministry, a think tank within the government, which has recommended Gazans be relocated to Egypt’s northern Sinai..
...Remarks from members of Netanyahu’s government – though not from any ministers in the emergency war cabinet – are only fueling fears.
This week Agriculture Minister Avi Dichter, a former head of the Shin Bet intelligence service, said on television: “We are now rolling out the Gaza nakba.”
Which reminds me, Goldman Sachs, top firm, never doubted them.
Brexit delivered 5% blow to UK economy, says Goldman Sachs
Britain has “significantly underperformed” compared with the European Union and the United States since the vote to leave in June 2016, the bank claims
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cost-of-brexit-is-a-5-percent-knock-to-uk-economy-says-goldman-sachs-pwwqwhfwc
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/12/gay-mafia-book-priest-bullied-scottish-catholic-church/
Weird to see the prime minister arguing for a Labour government but few things should surprise us anymore.
We’ve had the mythical white working class salt of the earth red wall voter shoved in our faces since 2016. But now the Tories look fearfully at the blue wall and decide to change their minds about all that.
Also how nice of a tame price to regurgitate that for them.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/labour-received-new-information-about-rochdale-by-election-candidate-before-withdrawing-support/ar-BB1iaZrz?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=48cf682047a84dd695af2bd8e5997ccd&ei=16
@mikeysmith
When you say “my parents worked hard to give me a good education” you’re saying two things.
• State education, which I am in charge of, is bad and should be avoided at all costs.
• If you’re a parent who can’t afford to do that, you aren’t working hard enough for your kids.
Even BoJo the Liar talked of a Nike swoosh; an transitional hit before everything went brilliantly.
One out of one so far, but it's blooming hard to see where the second bit comes from.
The jobs data also put the spotlight back on NHS waiting lists ahead of the UK election - economic inactivity due to long-term sickness is up again...
In comparison, the Ukraine war is exceedingly simple morally: Russia is in the wrong, and Ukraine is in the right.
First Law of Civil Wars
1) They aren't civil.
It's only the relative proportions which are in dispute.
@polinaivanovva on how Russian army wives are demanding their men back – and the Kremlin doesn’t know what to do about them
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1757298038035431626
People who were tempted to vote for Galloway aren’t going to be put off Ali by Ali’s comments. If anything, they will be more sympathetic towards him!
Reform UK usually have a poor ground war, and have chosen a candidate with more problems than Ali. The Tories last won Rochdale in 1951 and their national polling is atrocious. The Green candidate has withdrawn from campaigning. The LibDems may be best placed to make a challenge, but they’ve only got a fortnight to do it in. It’s over a decade since they got a decent vote in the constituency.
We’d expect a very low turnout simply given it’s a safe Opposition-held seat in a by-election. I suggest the turnout may be even lower, but Ali will win. I think the betting value is on Labour and I’d lay Galloway on current odds. You can still get good odds on the LibDems in places, I think, which may be worth it as a trading bet. DYOR.
That's not healthy. If it does this then it might entrench division. I can't see anything that would promote a more rapid recovery of the Tories in their base than this. And that's almost regardless of who they select as LoTO:
"The first working-class government in decades will speak that language. It will also be chippy. It will squeeze private schools and spray concrete newbuild homes all over the shires. It will go after companies who make the same mistakes as P&O. It may struggle to hide the pleasure it takes in doing so."
Everyone else has now flipped over to AppleTV to watch Masters of the Air instead.
Let's be honest: none of us really knows what SKS is going to do. We're only going to find out after he's been elected and not everyone is going to like it.
Either we're in some weird new economic paradigm, there's a mixture of minor factors (reducing work hours among the well paid over 50s perhaps) or somewhere the data is wrong.
I'm not expecting him to be very good, to be honest. Probably at May's level of competence- reasonable, but uninspiring. Not what the country needs, but better than what we've got.
In reality a combination of full employment, affordable housing, control of East European immigration and extra NHS spending has actually delivered for most of their new 2017-2019 constituencies.
As Conservatives don't boast of this success I can only think its a happy accident.
It is all there. Starmer has not purged it, not remotely. And it will all come bubbling out like some vile boiling effluent, even as Starmer tries to make us all shut up with new Woke laws on hate speech and Islamismphobia and specifically equal rights for midget trans ginger haired asylum seeking amputee terrorist mongers
It is also much less self consciously pseudo intellectual than it sometimes has been. For that, and much further left, you have to go to the London Review of Books.
I’m normally a fairly optimistic sort of bloke, but the wretched Rochdale row suggests that any post-election ‘honeymoon’ will be quite short.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/101st_Airborne_Division
I also love naval battles.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/12/forecast-worsens-on-eve-of-new-york-special-election-00141032
If the Democrats retake the seat it would suggest that they are not doing as badly among their core vote as one or two here have suggested.
Trebles all round.
We cannot be killed
'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
We have a dog in the fight. If Ukraine goes, where next? We stop Putin now, we save ourselves a lot of problems later. That is all very simple.
And bad for many others.
I do wonder if economic mobility has declined.
Which would be odd as there are so many job and training opportunities and thanks to the internet its much easier to improve your skillset now that in previous decades.
Perhaps there's too many young workers trapped in some student debt, unaffordable housing economic stasis.