»In einigen europäischen Ländern – wie etwa in Großbritannien – gibt es eine parlamentarische Monarchie, wobei der König oder die Königin – ähnlich wie der Bundespräsident bei uns – keine politische Macht mehr hat, sondern als Staatsoberhaupt nur noch repräsentative Aufgaben wahrnimmt. Fänden Sie es gut, wenn es auch in Deutschland statt des Bundespräsidenten noch einen König oder eine Königin gäbe oder fänden Sie das nicht gut?«
Translated: "In some European countries - such as the UK - there is a parliamentary monarchy, where the king or queen - similar to the federal president in Germany - no longer has any political power, but only fulfils representative tasks as head of state. Would you be in favour of a king or queen instead of a federal president in Germany, or would you be against that?"
In favour 8% Against 89%
People vote for the status quo everywhere but in monarchies this is somewhat mitigated by monarchy being an inherent nonsense ("It kind of works, so we'll stick with it")
Looked at in a particular pragmatic way, all dignified, as opposed to efficient, bits of the state are inherent nonsense. In that light, monarchy is no worse than all the others.
Dignified bits of the state have wide ramifications. One of them would be having buildings like the HoP and Westminster Hall, rather than a conference centre in Barking or Hull, rented by the day, to meet in.
That's somewhat glosses over the intellectual issue with the monarchy, which is the absence of any requirement for the head of state to be competent or even sane. I do realise you can still end up with someone like Trump in a republic but at least he went through some sort of selection process.
My theory is that societies with less sophisticated governance tolerated the occasional imbecile as monarch, which was a disaster each time it happened, because in the round it was better than constant succession wars. In principle we're better than that now.
Any election forces a choice - by nature division.
Any selection ends up with a political placeman and/or a bureaucratic non-entity
A monarchy may have the occasional harmless fool, but they are a unifying feature that is non partisan and non political
Not if the last couple of days on PB is anything to go by, they don't.
More like ther last couple of millenia of the history of the Isles of Britain and Ireland.
So you're saying PB is an accurate proxy for that ?
Some of us do like to look back a few centuries for their preferred theory of government, though I must admit I'm not sure if anyone is picking Niall of the Nine Hostages as a model!
"In 2016 the Rt Rev Pete Wilcox, then dean of the cathedral, said it had converted 200 asylum seekers in four years. Yet he couldn’t think of a single example where somebody who had already gained British citizenship converted from Islam to Christianity"."
Wow sorry what the hell has this to do with anything? You think people who live here should have to convert, never heard so much bollocks in my life
That’s not it at all
People come here and convert and then claim asylum on the basis for fear of religious persecution. They get it and then never go to a church again
That’s called making a real effort to assimilate to the local cultural norms.
This kind of thing is widespread and has a rich tradition in this country.
Where I once lived in East London it was widely known that the local Church School was the best, and by some distance. If you wanted to get your kid in however, you had to attend Church and support it financially and in various other ways. Not surprisingly, there was a very high rate of conversion in the area, even amongst the most sinful. Sadly,most of these rescued souls relapsed when the children were safely enrolled.
'Tain't just the refugees that do it.
Friends in South London did exactly that to get their child into a secondary school, just five or so years ago. It was particularly funny as he changed religion in order to marry her, and then they both changed to a third in order get into a good school.
They've never been regular church-goers in any religion.
I dodged a bullet by not having kids. A decade or more of attending mass? Hell, no.
»In einigen europäischen Ländern – wie etwa in Großbritannien – gibt es eine parlamentarische Monarchie, wobei der König oder die Königin – ähnlich wie der Bundespräsident bei uns – keine politische Macht mehr hat, sondern als Staatsoberhaupt nur noch repräsentative Aufgaben wahrnimmt. Fänden Sie es gut, wenn es auch in Deutschland statt des Bundespräsidenten noch einen König oder eine Königin gäbe oder fänden Sie das nicht gut?«
Translated: "In some European countries - such as the UK - there is a parliamentary monarchy, where the king or queen - similar to the federal president in Germany - no longer has any political power, but only fulfils representative tasks as head of state. Would you be in favour of a king or queen instead of a federal president in Germany, or would you be against that?"
In favour 8% Against 89%
People vote for the status quo everywhere but in monarchies this is somewhat mitigated by monarchy being an inherent nonsense ("It kind of works, so we'll stick with it")
Looked at in a particular pragmatic way, all dignified, as opposed to efficient, bits of the state are inherent nonsense. In that light, monarchy is no worse than all the others.
Dignified bits of the state have wide ramifications. One of them would be having buildings like the HoP and Westminster Hall, rather than a conference centre in Barking or Hull, rented by the day, to meet in.
That's somewhat glosses over the intellectual issue with the monarchy, which is the absence of any requirement for the head of state to be competent or even sane. I do realise you can still end up with someone like Trump in a republic but at least he went through some sort of selection process.
My theory is that societies with less sophisticated governance tolerated the occasional imbecile as monarch, which was a disaster each time it happened, because in the round it was better than constant succession wars. In principle we're better than that now.
Any election forces a choice - by nature division.
Any selection ends up with a political placeman and/or a bureaucratic non-entity
A monarchy may have the occasional harmless fool, but they are a unifying feature that is non partisan and non political
“unifying feature”??? Charles I couldn’t even keep his head unified with the rest of his body, let alone unify the country/countries.
On The S*n's revelation that November dates are a bit shit, I have news for them - October's are worse.
Assuming that HMK has recovered from his big-C treatment he will be out of the country all month. Even if he isn't, October means calling the election in September, which means cancelling conference season, which means everyone will know in the summer that the "surprise" date is October.
Unless he pulls the trigger for 2nd May he will be like the copilot in the film Flight "Oh lord we're coming out of 7,000 [remaining Tory voters] and all I see is houses"
Nowhere to land without immolating the plane. And if the Trumpocalypse means he can't hold an election (did some of us not say this?) in November, then the obvious play is go long.
2nd May, 12th December, 23rd January. That's it.
It's not really a play, though. That implies that Rishi is in control of the situation and will calmly choose the day that maximises Conservative success.
Whereas you and I know (as do Rishi and Harry, but they can't admit it out loud), there's no good day to have the election.
Run in May and lose big. Hold off until early winter and probably lose worse- albeit with six months more in office and a bit more time for the horse to learn to sing.
I think the Christmas thing rules out January. So that says December (and dumb as it would be, I still reckon December 19th). Unless Conservative MPs get so fractious that Rishi has to call an election to shut them up.
I think May can be -or-less ruled out now:
- It would require Sunak to call an election in around months' time. There is little prospect of a big polling turnaround in such a short time.
- In the absence of any chance of winning a new term, staying in office and passing whatever laws he seems appropriate seems the next best option for someone who has always wanted to be PM. 6 months extra is a reasonably material time period to do that.
- The longer the time period, the more likely 'something' turns up, positive or negative. From his perspective further bad news isn't too relevant - he's already losing a landslide with current polling.
... that still leaves October through to January available to choose from. I think all are possible, with October a slight favourite for me as I can't see significant new legalisation after the summer recess in any scenario.
May would be the "surprise" date. Pull off bigger tax cuts than billed, seize the agenda, get the client media to roll pre-planned Starmer attack stories. Unlikely, but still their best case scenario. -30%
September means campaigning over the summer - 10% October means cancelling the conference in the summer and has all the other issues we raised last time - 30% November would be an announcement at conference (which pledges fealty to Trump at various fringe meetings) and gets into the likely chaos of the US election - 20% December - Ride the US election out, go to the country. If he can do 5 years to the day since the Tory triumph all the better - 60% January - the "screw it Christmas hurts them more than it hurts us" election. I can write the media program for them now - Starmer will ruin your year etc etc
The market will win out. If stories with lots of transgender kids get bums on seats, terrific. And if they turn off viewers like a dose of clap, then Disney will make an about turn very quickly indeed.
The market has been speaking to Disney for quite some time. Their stock hit a 10-year low at the end of last year.
The anti-wokeists have gone a bit quiet on it since their campaign failed.
The reason that Barbie was a success was unrelated to being Woke or not. It was simply a good, fairly original film, well acted and directed with good jokes, songs and visuals, as well as effective marketing.
People are less bothered about the politics of a film if it is a good film. That is also true of films like Forrest Gump, with its celebration of American Conservative values.
Make decent films and people will want to watch them.
That Forbes piece is a good one:
'Gaetz went on to describe Ken, Barbie’s famously flamboyant plastic companion, as exhibiting “Disappointingly low T,” which means low testosterone.'
Not easy putting hair on the chest of a plastic doll. And she'd complain if they put the obvious missing bits in!
As for the share price, it went from c.$67 to c.$54 in two months, that’s a 20% drop, or $25bn in market cap, according to your link.
Yes, but look at where the share price had been just a few months before - to three years or 'all', instead of one. The share price goes all over the place. In late 2019, the share price halved. The idea that the price fall was a 'crash' in respect to the share's volatility is ridiculous.
The share price dropped 20% in a couple of months, and still isn’t above where it was when this scandal started, despite a recovery following the Q3 report posted above, off the back of strong international sales. Bud Light is still screwed in the US though.
What was the share price in 2019 is totally irrelevant to the conversation, which related to Q2 last year.
'scandal'
LOL.
What happened in 2019 *is* relevant, as the halving in price it did then is a sign of how volatile the share price is. What you are claiming is a 'crash' just seems to be normal for this particular share. As another example,. look at the all between June and October 2021.
LOL
Did you miss the pandemic and war that made the 2020-2022 period so volatile?
Sales of their best-selling line in their biggest market dropped by 30%, and their share price was 20% off at the same time. Their problems were referred to in their earnings calls to investors, and the scandal went from being covered by media commentators to being covered by the financial press. I’m saying that just maybe there’s some correlation there.
Yes, which was why earlier I mentioned the larger fall in late 2019, *before* Covid.
And it goes to show my point: their share price is volatile, and has fallen much more in recent times due to factors other than pathetic man-babies. You are desperate to make this out to be a 'win' for the same man-babies who want Ukraine to lose to Russia coz that will somehow MAGA.
You what?
I said that a load of bad headlines and boycotts stemming from a marketing campaign dropped their sales by 30%, and the share price dropped 20% at the same time.
You’re saying there can’t possibly be any correlation because, err, Donald Trump Bad and Russia should win the war?
I'm not saying that. I'm saying it wasn't a 'crash' in the share price by any sane definition, given the share's volatility.
Okay fine. I’ll let others decide whether a 20% drop in the share price in two months counts as a crash.
Housemoving day for me today, so I have better things to do now than continue to argue on the internet.
How can anything possibly be more important than arguing on the internet? Have you not noticed how many people need instruction in the ways of the righteous?
Indeed. I sometimes wonder how you all cope on the days that I have to appear in court and you are deprived of my wisdom and insight. I am sure it must be terrible for you all 😉
Also, with the Charles news, ain't no one calling an election while there is still treatment ongoing or in the event of Charles' death.
"Now is not the time to distract..." will be the line and then in Jan 25, at the last possible moment it will be more in sorrow than anger we have to have a GE HMK (says he/would have) wanted it that way democracy will continue, blah, blah.
I might double up on my Jan 25 bet.
No. Treatment for cancer can take a very long time. He might be being treated for it for over a year and the law requires that the election be held within the year. Politics as usual only paused a few weeks on the death of the late Queen. Notice the Tories have immediately reacted to Labour’s dentistry attack ad with some bandaid to a leg break gimmick. The campaign has already started.
I'm still on Jan 24. I see no reason for him to go early.
He won't last that long
I'm on next election Jan 2025 (typo in the original I was thinking "next year").
Even if Rishi is not in charge how do you see it panning out? Joe Bloggs mounts a leadership challenge which succeeds and then, weeks after getting the job, calls an election to get wiped out?
Can't see it myself. Even if there is a leadership challenge (there won't be) the new leader won't go to the country immediately.
Agree that a leadership challenge is unlikely, and also agree that a new leader - who would likely be from the bonkers wing - would not go to the nation till the last possible moment.
The market will win out. If stories with lots of transgender kids get bums on seats, terrific. And if they turn off viewers like a dose of clap, then Disney will make an about turn very quickly indeed.
The market has been speaking to Disney for quite some time. Their stock hit a 10-year low at the end of last year.
The anti-wokeists have gone a bit quiet on it since their campaign failed.
The reason that Barbie was a success was unrelated to being Woke or not. It was simply a good, fairly original film, well acted and directed with good jokes, songs and visuals, as well as effective marketing.
People are less bothered about the politics of a film if it is a good film. That is also true of films like Forrest Gump, with its celebration of American Conservative values.
Make decent films and people will want to watch them.
That Forbes piece is a good one:
'Gaetz went on to describe Ken, Barbie’s famously flamboyant plastic companion, as exhibiting “Disappointingly low T,” which means low testosterone.'
Not easy putting hair on the chest of a plastic doll. And she'd complain if they put the obvious missing bits in!
Isn't what's true of films also true of policy and life in general when it comes to culture war topics?
Sensible, thoughtful approaches to important issues whether they come from a conservative or liberal origin generally go down reasonably well with the public and stick around, usually when they make actual sense and people can see there is some sort of logic behind them.
Nutty stuff from people more concerned with ideological purity or grifting for clicks is nutty whoever it comes from, including the slick of gobbledegook coming out of parts of higher education (which was equally there in the 1990s, I remember it well) and the performance art that is things like Trump's circus or the PopCon conference.
On The S*n's revelation that November dates are a bit shit, I have news for them - October's are worse.
Assuming that HMK has recovered from his big-C treatment he will be out of the country all month. Even if he isn't, October means calling the election in September, which means cancelling conference season, which means everyone will know in the summer that the "surprise" date is October.
Unless he pulls the trigger for 2nd May he will be like the copilot in the film Flight "Oh lord we're coming out of 7,000 [remaining Tory voters] and all I see is houses"
Nowhere to land without immolating the plane. And if the Trumpocalypse means he can't hold an election (did some of us not say this?) in November, then the obvious play is go long.
2nd May, 12th December, 23rd January. That's it.
It's not really a play, though. That implies that Rishi is in control of the situation and will calmly choose the day that maximises Conservative success.
Whereas you and I know (as do Rishi and Harry, but they can't admit it out loud), there's no good day to have the election.
Run in May and lose big. Hold off until early winter and probably lose worse- albeit with six months more in office and a bit more time for the horse to learn to sing.
I think the Christmas thing rules out January. So that says December (and dumb as it would be, I still reckon December 19th). Unless Conservative MPs get so fractious that Rishi has to call an election to shut them up.
I think May can be -or-less ruled out now:
- It would require Sunak to call an election in around months' time. There is little prospect of a big polling turnaround in such a short time.
- In the absence of any chance of winning a new term, staying in office and passing whatever laws he seems appropriate seems the next best option for someone who has always wanted to be PM. 6 months extra is a reasonably material time period to do that.
- The longer the time period, the more likely 'something' turns up, positive or negative. From his perspective further bad news isn't too relevant - he's already losing a landslide with current polling.
... that still leaves October through to January available to choose from. I think all are possible, with October a slight favourite for me as I can't see significant new legalisation after the summer recess in any scenario.
May would be the "surprise" date. Pull off bigger tax cuts than billed, seize the agenda, get the client media to roll pre-planned Starmer attack stories. Unlikely, but still their best case scenario. -30%
September means campaigning over the summer - 10% October means cancelling the conference in the summer and has all the other issues we raised last time - 30% November would be an announcement at conference (which pledges fealty to Trump at various fringe meetings) and gets into the likely chaos of the US election - 20% December - Ride the US election out, go to the country. If he can do 5 years to the day since the Tory triumph all the better - 60% January - the "screw it Christmas hurts them more than it hurts us" election. I can write the media program for them now - Starmer will ruin your year etc etc
23rd January.
A minimum of almost 2 and a half years as PM is not too shabby. The history books will have R. Sunak; Prime Minister (2022- 2025). Something might have come along, and three days after the Trump inauguration could focus voters's minds with threats to the UK by POTUS if they elect a woke-commie government.
I am also convinced the 3m ex-pat voters shoehorned into marginal seats and voter ID chaos will play well for the Conservative Party.
The market will win out. If stories with lots of transgender kids get bums on seats, terrific. And if they turn off viewers like a dose of clap, then Disney will make an about turn very quickly indeed.
The market has been speaking to Disney for quite some time. Their stock hit a 10-year low at the end of last year.
The anti-wokeists have gone a bit quiet on it since their campaign failed.
The reason that Barbie was a success was unrelated to being Woke or not. It was simply a good, fairly original film, well acted and directed with good jokes, songs and visuals, as well as effective marketing.
People are less bothered about the politics of a film if it is a good film. That is also true of films like Forrest Gump, with its celebration of American Conservative values.
Make decent films and people will want to watch them.
On The S*n's revelation that November dates are a bit shit, I have news for them - October's are worse.
Assuming that HMK has recovered from his big-C treatment he will be out of the country all month. Even if he isn't, October means calling the election in September, which means cancelling conference season, which means everyone will know in the summer that the "surprise" date is October.
Unless he pulls the trigger for 2nd May he will be like the copilot in the film Flight "Oh lord we're coming out of 7,000 [remaining Tory voters] and all I see is houses"
Nowhere to land without immolating the plane. And if the Trumpocalypse means he can't hold an election (did some of us not say this?) in November, then the obvious play is go long.
2nd May, 12th December, 23rd January. That's it.
It's not really a play, though. That implies that Rishi is in control of the situation and will calmly choose the day that maximises Conservative success.
Whereas you and I know (as do Rishi and Harry, but they can't admit it out loud), there's no good day to have the election.
Run in May and lose big. Hold off until early winter and probably lose worse- albeit with six months more in office and a bit more time for the horse to learn to sing.
I think the Christmas thing rules out January. So that says December (and dumb as it would be, I still reckon December 19th). Unless Conservative MPs get so fractious that Rishi has to call an election to shut them up.
I think May can be -or-less ruled out now:
- It would require Sunak to call an election in around months' time. There is little prospect of a big polling turnaround in such a short time.
- In the absence of any chance of winning a new term, staying in office and passing whatever laws he seems appropriate seems the next best option for someone who has always wanted to be PM. 6 months extra is a reasonably material time period to do that.
- The longer the time period, the more likely 'something' turns up, positive or negative. From his perspective further bad news isn't too relevant - he's already losing a landslide with current polling.
... that still leaves October through to January available to choose from. I think all are possible, with October a slight favourite for me as I can't see significant new legalisation after the summer recess in any scenario.
May would be the "surprise" date. Pull off bigger tax cuts than billed, seize the agenda, get the client media to roll pre-planned Starmer attack stories. Unlikely, but still their best case scenario. -30%
September means campaigning over the summer - 10% October means cancelling the conference in the summer and has all the other issues we raised last time - 30% November would be an announcement at conference (which pledges fealty to Trump at various fringe meetings) and gets into the likely chaos of the US election - 20% December - Ride the US election out, go to the country. If he can do 5 years to the day since the Tory triumph all the better - 60% January - the "screw it Christmas hurts them more than it hurts us" election. I can write the media program for them now - Starmer will ruin your year etc etc
23rd January.
A minimum of almost 2 and a half years as PM is not too shabby. Something might have come along and three days after the Trump inauguration could focus voters's minds with threats to the UK by POTUS if they elect a woke-commie government.
I am also convinced the 3m ex-pat voters shoehorned into marginal seats and voter ID chaos will play well for the Conservative Party.
3m expat voters, many shafted by Brexit? I think that that decision is going to backfire on the Tories, badly. The famously progressive GB News appears to agree -
On The S*n's revelation that November dates are a bit shit, I have news for them - October's are worse.
Assuming that HMK has recovered from his big-C treatment he will be out of the country all month. Even if he isn't, October means calling the election in September, which means cancelling conference season, which means everyone will know in the summer that the "surprise" date is October.
Unless he pulls the trigger for 2nd May he will be like the copilot in the film Flight "Oh lord we're coming out of 7,000 [remaining Tory voters] and all I see is houses"
Nowhere to land without immolating the plane. And if the Trumpocalypse means he can't hold an election (did some of us not say this?) in November, then the obvious play is go long.
2nd May, 12th December, 23rd January. That's it.
It's not really a play, though. That implies that Rishi is in control of the situation and will calmly choose the day that maximises Conservative success.
Whereas you and I know (as do Rishi and Harry, but they can't admit it out loud), there's no good day to have the election.
Run in May and lose big. Hold off until early winter and probably lose worse- albeit with six months more in office and a bit more time for the horse to learn to sing.
I think the Christmas thing rules out January. So that says December (and dumb as it would be, I still reckon December 19th). Unless Conservative MPs get so fractious that Rishi has to call an election to shut them up.
I think May can be -or-less ruled out now:
- It would require Sunak to call an election in around months' time. There is little prospect of a big polling turnaround in such a short time.
- In the absence of any chance of winning a new term, staying in office and passing whatever laws he seems appropriate seems the next best option for someone who has always wanted to be PM. 6 months extra is a reasonably material time period to do that.
- The longer the time period, the more likely 'something' turns up, positive or negative. From his perspective further bad news isn't too relevant - he's already losing a landslide with current polling.
... that still leaves October through to January available to choose from. I think all are possible, with October a slight favourite for me as I can't see significant new legalisation after the summer recess in any scenario.
May would be the "surprise" date. Pull off bigger tax cuts than billed, seize the agenda, get the client media to roll pre-planned Starmer attack stories. Unlikely, but still their best case scenario. -30%
September means campaigning over the summer - 10% October means cancelling the conference in the summer and has all the other issues we raised last time - 30% November would be an announcement at conference (which pledges fealty to Trump at various fringe meetings) and gets into the likely chaos of the US election - 20% December - Ride the US election out, go to the country. If he can do 5 years to the day since the Tory triumph all the better - 60% January - the "screw it Christmas hurts them more than it hurts us" election. I can write the media program for them now - Starmer will ruin your year etc etc
He would be best off going for October but announcing the date now. It gives several months for policies to be picked over and holes found, plenty of time to build narratives about what the Labour manifesto actually will mean for potential ex Tory voters if they switch etc. Starmer and his front bench will need to be out being interviewed and meeting people for longer and lose the ability to sit and say nothing for longer and there is a chance it might actually turn suitable numbers of potential switchers off.
It will also induce a sense of absolute boredom with the idea of an election and instead of the excited rush with the chance to boot the Tories out in a month’s time the air will come out of it a bit and people will get jaded.
It also forces the various Tory factions to stop infighting and pushing for leadership change and they can focus their attacks outward for a few months.
Now someone will tell me you can’t announce it well in advance but I think it’s the best chance the Tories have of reducing the damage.
On The S*n's revelation that November dates are a bit shit, I have news for them - October's are worse.
Assuming that HMK has recovered from his big-C treatment he will be out of the country all month. Even if he isn't, October means calling the election in September, which means cancelling conference season, which means everyone will know in the summer that the "surprise" date is October.
Unless he pulls the trigger for 2nd May he will be like the copilot in the film Flight "Oh lord we're coming out of 7,000 [remaining Tory voters] and all I see is houses"
Nowhere to land without immolating the plane. And if the Trumpocalypse means he can't hold an election (did some of us not say this?) in November, then the obvious play is go long.
2nd May, 12th December, 23rd January. That's it.
It's not really a play, though. That implies that Rishi is in control of the situation and will calmly choose the day that maximises Conservative success.
Whereas you and I know (as do Rishi and Harry, but they can't admit it out loud), there's no good day to have the election.
Run in May and lose big. Hold off until early winter and probably lose worse- albeit with six months more in office and a bit more time for the horse to learn to sing.
I think the Christmas thing rules out January. So that says December (and dumb as it would be, I still reckon December 19th). Unless Conservative MPs get so fractious that Rishi has to call an election to shut them up.
I think May can be -or-less ruled out now:
- It would require Sunak to call an election in around months' time. There is little prospect of a big polling turnaround in such a short time.
- In the absence of any chance of winning a new term, staying in office and passing whatever laws he seems appropriate seems the next best option for someone who has always wanted to be PM. 6 months extra is a reasonably material time period to do that.
- The longer the time period, the more likely 'something' turns up, positive or negative. From his perspective further bad news isn't too relevant - he's already losing a landslide with current polling.
... that still leaves October through to January available to choose from. I think all are possible, with October a slight favourite for me as I can't see significant new legalisation after the summer recess in any scenario.
Has he always wanted to be PM? I guess he entered politics with that hope but he rather seems to have stumbled into the role by dint of extreme good luck.
Johnson, now there is someone who always wanted to be PM imo; shame he made such a horlicks of it.
On The S*n's revelation that November dates are a bit shit, I have news for them - October's are worse.
Assuming that HMK has recovered from his big-C treatment he will be out of the country all month. Even if he isn't, October means calling the election in September, which means cancelling conference season, which means everyone will know in the summer that the "surprise" date is October.
Unless he pulls the trigger for 2nd May he will be like the copilot in the film Flight "Oh lord we're coming out of 7,000 [remaining Tory voters] and all I see is houses"
Nowhere to land without immolating the plane. And if the Trumpocalypse means he can't hold an election (did some of us not say this?) in November, then the obvious play is go long.
2nd May, 12th December, 23rd January. That's it.
It's not really a play, though. That implies that Rishi is in control of the situation and will calmly choose the day that maximises Conservative success.
Whereas you and I know (as do Rishi and Harry, but they can't admit it out loud), there's no good day to have the election.
Run in May and lose big. Hold off until early winter and probably lose worse- albeit with six months more in office and a bit more time for the horse to learn to sing.
I think the Christmas thing rules out January. So that says December (and dumb as it would be, I still reckon December 19th). Unless Conservative MPs get so fractious that Rishi has to call an election to shut them up.
I'm wishcasting a Thursday in May, but I think is extremely unlikely now - even though it would likely be the Tories' best time to go. Rishi is crap at politics. This is known.
Interesting when you properly look at the dates how few are actually viable for various reasons.
On The S*n's revelation that November dates are a bit shit, I have news for them - October's are worse.
Assuming that HMK has recovered from his big-C treatment he will be out of the country all month. Even if he isn't, October means calling the election in September, which means cancelling conference season, which means everyone will know in the summer that the "surprise" date is October.
Unless he pulls the trigger for 2nd May he will be like the copilot in the film Flight "Oh lord we're coming out of 7,000 [remaining Tory voters] and all I see is houses"
Nowhere to land without immolating the plane. And if the Trumpocalypse means he can't hold an election (did some of us not say this?) in November, then the obvious play is go long.
2nd May, 12th December, 23rd January. That's it.
It's not really a play, though. That implies that Rishi is in control of the situation and will calmly choose the day that maximises Conservative success.
Whereas you and I know (as do Rishi and Harry, but they can't admit it out loud), there's no good day to have the election.
Run in May and lose big. Hold off until early winter and probably lose worse- albeit with six months more in office and a bit more time for the horse to learn to sing.
I think the Christmas thing rules out January. So that says December (and dumb as it would be, I still reckon December 19th). Unless Conservative MPs get so fractious that Rishi has to call an election to shut them up.
I think May can be -or-less ruled out now:
- It would require Sunak to call an election in around months' time. There is little prospect of a big polling turnaround in such a short time.
- In the absence of any chance of winning a new term, staying in office and passing whatever laws he seems appropriate seems the next best option for someone who has always wanted to be PM. 6 months extra is a reasonably material time period to do that.
- The longer the time period, the more likely 'something' turns up, positive or negative. From his perspective further bad news isn't too relevant - he's already losing a landslide with current polling.
... that still leaves October through to January available to choose from. I think all are possible, with October a slight favourite for me as I can't see significant new legalisation after the summer recess in any scenario.
May would be the "surprise" date. Pull off bigger tax cuts than billed, seize the agenda, get the client media to roll pre-planned Starmer attack stories. Unlikely, but still their best case scenario. -30%
September means campaigning over the summer - 10% October means cancelling the conference in the summer and has all the other issues we raised last time - 30% November would be an announcement at conference (which pledges fealty to Trump at various fringe meetings) and gets into the likely chaos of the US election - 20% December - Ride the US election out, go to the country. If he can do 5 years to the day since the Tory triumph all the better - 60% January - the "screw it Christmas hurts them more than it hurts us" election. I can write the media program for them now - Starmer will ruin your year etc etc
December is possibly underrated as an option, given the success last time. The true surprise would be August. Bank on Labour and Lib Dem voters being away on summer holiday with the kids. The only people left at home would be those old enough to travel outside school holidays, or too infirm to travel. It's a thought.
New HMG proposals for NHS dentistry are out. Not very earthmoving. £20K one off payment to move to the sort of place HM cabinet ministers call shitetown isn't going to cut much ice. And "An extra £15 for dentists on top of the standard payment of £28 for seeing a patient who has not visited a dentist for two years" and "An increase of up to £50 per patient needing complex work".
On The S*n's revelation that November dates are a bit shit, I have news for them - October's are worse.
Assuming that HMK has recovered from his big-C treatment he will be out of the country all month. Even if he isn't, October means calling the election in September, which means cancelling conference season, which means everyone will know in the summer that the "surprise" date is October.
Unless he pulls the trigger for 2nd May he will be like the copilot in the film Flight "Oh lord we're coming out of 7,000 [remaining Tory voters] and all I see is houses"
Nowhere to land without immolating the plane. And if the Trumpocalypse means he can't hold an election (did some of us not say this?) in November, then the obvious play is go long.
2nd May, 12th December, 23rd January. That's it.
It's not really a play, though. That implies that Rishi is in control of the situation and will calmly choose the day that maximises Conservative success.
Whereas you and I know (as do Rishi and Harry, but they can't admit it out loud), there's no good day to have the election.
Run in May and lose big. Hold off until early winter and probably lose worse- albeit with six months more in office and a bit more time for the horse to learn to sing.
I think the Christmas thing rules out January. So that says December (and dumb as it would be, I still reckon December 19th). Unless Conservative MPs get so fractious that Rishi has to call an election to shut them up.
I think May can be -or-less ruled out now:
- It would require Sunak to call an election in around months' time. There is little prospect of a big polling turnaround in such a short time.
- In the absence of any chance of winning a new term, staying in office and passing whatever laws he seems appropriate seems the next best option for someone who has always wanted to be PM. 6 months extra is a reasonably material time period to do that.
- The longer the time period, the more likely 'something' turns up, positive or negative. From his perspective further bad news isn't too relevant - he's already losing a landslide with current polling.
... that still leaves October through to January available to choose from. I think all are possible, with October a slight favourite for me as I can't see significant new legalisation after the summer recess in any scenario.
May would be the "surprise" date. Pull off bigger tax cuts than billed, seize the agenda, get the client media to roll pre-planned Starmer attack stories. Unlikely, but still their best case scenario. -30%
September means campaigning over the summer - 10% October means cancelling the conference in the summer and has all the other issues we raised last time - 30% November would be an announcement at conference (which pledges fealty to Trump at various fringe meetings) and gets into the likely chaos of the US election - 20% December - Ride the US election out, go to the country. If he can do 5 years to the day since the Tory triumph all the better - 60% January - the "screw it Christmas hurts them more than it hurts us" election. I can write the media program for them now - Starmer will ruin your year etc etc
December is possibly underrated as an option, given the success last time. The true surprise would be August. Bank on Labour and Lib Dem voters being away on summer holiday with the kids. The only people left at home would be those old enough to travel outside school holidays, or too infirm to travel. It's a thought.
The market will win out. If stories with lots of transgender kids get bums on seats, terrific. And if they turn off viewers like a dose of clap, then Disney will make an about turn very quickly indeed.
The market has been speaking to Disney for quite some time. Their stock hit a 10-year low at the end of last year.
The anti-wokeists have gone a bit quiet on it since their campaign failed.
The reason that Barbie was a success was unrelated to being Woke or not. It was simply a good, fairly original film, well acted and directed with good jokes, songs and visuals, as well as effective marketing.
People are less bothered about the politics of a film if it is a good film. That is also true of films like Forrest Gump, with its celebration of American Conservative values.
Make decent films and people will want to watch them.
New HMG proposals for NHS dentistry are out. Not very earthmoving. £20K one off payment to move to the sort of place HM cabinet ministers call shitetown isn't going to cut much ice. And "An extra £15 for dentists on top of the standard payment of £28 for seeing a patient who has not visited a dentist for two years" and "An increase of up to £50 per patient needing complex work".
It looks like the government is finally getting its act together with the Dental Recovery Plan. R4 gave over its major interview this morning to Victoria Atkins on this. She was brilliantly incoherent.
But at last, the government is tackling Labour's 14 years of neglect of NHS dental services. I eagerly await the next "Recovery Plan" aimed at undoing Labour's neglect of other public services.
New HMG proposals for NHS dentistry are out. Not very earthmoving. £20K one off payment to move to the sort of place HM cabinet ministers call shitetown isn't going to cut much ice. And "An extra £15 for dentists on top of the standard payment of £28 for seeing a patient who has not visited a dentist for two years" and "An increase of up to £50 per patient needing complex work".
Are the NHS dentistry deserts necessarily the "worst" areas ? I found one for us in Maltby not so long ago whereas considerably richer Bristol seems to be impossible to find one judging by the news reports.
The market will win out. If stories with lots of transgender kids get bums on seats, terrific. And if they turn off viewers like a dose of clap, then Disney will make an about turn very quickly indeed.
The market has been speaking to Disney for quite some time. Their stock hit a 10-year low at the end of last year.
The anti-wokeists have gone a bit quiet on it since their campaign failed.
The reason that Barbie was a success was unrelated to being Woke or not. It was simply a good, fairly original film, well acted and directed with good jokes, songs and visuals, as well as effective marketing.
People are less bothered about the politics of a film if it is a good film. That is also true of films like Forrest Gump, with its celebration of American Conservative values.
Make decent films and people will want to watch them.
The Quack from Leicester has spoken
Listen up, Hollywood
Mmmm, let me ponder for a moment... who is the better person, who would I turn to for advice in a tricky situation: the dedicated medical professional or the saddo puff-piece scribe?
Yep, not the toughest decision.
(And he's not wrong about films is he - make decent films and people will want to watch them.)
On The S*n's revelation that November dates are a bit shit, I have news for them - October's are worse.
Assuming that HMK has recovered from his big-C treatment he will be out of the country all month. Even if he isn't, October means calling the election in September, which means cancelling conference season, which means everyone will know in the summer that the "surprise" date is October.
Unless he pulls the trigger for 2nd May he will be like the copilot in the film Flight "Oh lord we're coming out of 7,000 [remaining Tory voters] and all I see is houses"
Nowhere to land without immolating the plane. And if the Trumpocalypse means he can't hold an election (did some of us not say this?) in November, then the obvious play is go long.
2nd May, 12th December, 23rd January. That's it.
KCIII dies in January, election postponed until February?
Would require an act of Parliament?
Yes it would
But Parliament would be dissolved, so not possible. Could not the Privy Council vary the date?
If you had an election on a Thursday and the Monarch expired on the Tuesday, would the election really not be postponed?
The market will win out. If stories with lots of transgender kids get bums on seats, terrific. And if they turn off viewers like a dose of clap, then Disney will make an about turn very quickly indeed.
The market has been speaking to Disney for quite some time. Their stock hit a 10-year low at the end of last year.
The anti-wokeists have gone a bit quiet on it since their campaign failed.
The reason that Barbie was a success was unrelated to being Woke or not. It was simply a good, fairly original film, well acted and directed with good jokes, songs and visuals, as well as effective marketing.
People are less bothered about the politics of a film if it is a good film. That is also true of films like Forrest Gump, with its celebration of American Conservative values.
Make decent films and people will want to watch them.
The Quack from Leicester has spoken
Listen up, Hollywood
What a lovely thing to say!
The Manchild has spoken; it's not his fault if you don't see his wisdom.
New HMG proposals for NHS dentistry are out. Not very earthmoving. £20K one off payment to move to the sort of place HM cabinet ministers call shitetown isn't going to cut much ice. And "An extra £15 for dentists on top of the standard payment of £28 for seeing a patient who has not visited a dentist for two years" and "An increase of up to £50 per patient needing complex work".
The utter failure in NHS dentistry should be one of the more urgent things to address. The on costs to the NHS over time from poor dental health are substantial (aren't they, Foxy ?). More money spent on basic dentistry for these currently without provision would very likely save money in the medium term.
That would basically leave me, @isam and @HYUFD as the solitary remaining rightwingers of note?
The relentless mediocre witless humourless lifeless inert festering smelly blob of twatty leftwing PB - from @DougSeal to @Foxy, from @kinabalu to @Benpointer to @RochdalePioneers to @Roger to @EvanGladne, in all its desperate and piffling monotony, will have overwhelmed and destroyed everything of value, like the ghastly fungus in The Last of Us
The market will win out. If stories with lots of transgender kids get bums on seats, terrific. And if they turn off viewers like a dose of clap, then Disney will make an about turn very quickly indeed.
The market has been speaking to Disney for quite some time. Their stock hit a 10-year low at the end of last year.
The anti-wokeists have gone a bit quiet on it since their campaign failed.
The reason that Barbie was a success was unrelated to being Woke or not. It was simply a good, fairly original film, well acted and directed with good jokes, songs and visuals, as well as effective marketing.
People are less bothered about the politics of a film if it is a good film. That is also true of films like Forrest Gump, with its celebration of American Conservative values.
Make decent films and people will want to watch them.
The Quack from Leicester has spoken
Listen up, Hollywood
Mmmm, let me ponder for a moment... who is the better person, who would I turn to for advice in a tricky situation: the dedicated medical professional or the saddo puff-piece scribe?
Yep, not the toughest decision.
(And he's not wrong about films is he - make decent films and people will want to watch them.)
MY GOD WHAT AN INSIGHT
MAKE A DECENT FILM AND PEOPLE WILL WATCH IT
I, for one, cannot understand why @Foxy is slaving away with his chapped knuckles and high blood pressure as an anonymous, unthanked sawbones near Stoke on Trent when he could - RIGHT NOW - be sitting in a plush Bel Air office telling his minions his immortal truth and unique insight: "let's make good movies, and not bad movies, then people will watch them"
On The S*n's revelation that November dates are a bit shit, I have news for them - October's are worse.
Assuming that HMK has recovered from his big-C treatment he will be out of the country all month. Even if he isn't, October means calling the election in September, which means cancelling conference season, which means everyone will know in the summer that the "surprise" date is October.
Unless he pulls the trigger for 2nd May he will be like the copilot in the film Flight "Oh lord we're coming out of 7,000 [remaining Tory voters] and all I see is houses"
Nowhere to land without immolating the plane. And if the Trumpocalypse means he can't hold an election (did some of us not say this?) in November, then the obvious play is go long.
2nd May, 12th December, 23rd January. That's it.
It's not really a play, though. That implies that Rishi is in control of the situation and will calmly choose the day that maximises Conservative success.
Whereas you and I know (as do Rishi and Harry, but they can't admit it out loud), there's no good day to have the election.
Run in May and lose big. Hold off until early winter and probably lose worse- albeit with six months more in office and a bit more time for the horse to learn to sing.
I think the Christmas thing rules out January. So that says December (and dumb as it would be, I still reckon December 19th). Unless Conservative MPs get so fractious that Rishi has to call an election to shut them up.
I think May can be -or-less ruled out now:
- It would require Sunak to call an election in around months' time. There is little prospect of a big polling turnaround in such a short time.
- In the absence of any chance of winning a new term, staying in office and passing whatever laws he seems appropriate seems the next best option for someone who has always wanted to be PM. 6 months extra is a reasonably material time period to do that.
- The longer the time period, the more likely 'something' turns up, positive or negative. From his perspective further bad news isn't too relevant - he's already losing a landslide with current polling.
... that still leaves October through to January available to choose from. I think all are possible, with October a slight favourite for me as I can't see significant new legalisation after the summer recess in any scenario.
May would be the "surprise" date. Pull off bigger tax cuts than billed, seize the agenda, get the client media to roll pre-planned Starmer attack stories. Unlikely, but still their best case scenario. -30%
September means campaigning over the summer - 10% October means cancelling the conference in the summer and has all the other issues we raised last time - 30% November would be an announcement at conference (which pledges fealty to Trump at various fringe meetings) and gets into the likely chaos of the US election - 20% December - Ride the US election out, go to the country. If he can do 5 years to the day since the Tory triumph all the better - 60% January - the "screw it Christmas hurts them more than it hurts us" election. I can write the media program for them now - Starmer will ruin your year etc etc
23rd January.
A minimum of almost 2 and a half years as PM is not too shabby. Something might have come along and three days after the Trump inauguration could focus voters's minds with threats to the UK by POTUS if they elect a woke-commie government.
I am also convinced the 3m ex-pat voters shoehorned into marginal seats and voter ID chaos will play well for the Conservative Party.
3m expat voters, many shafted by Brexit? I think that that decision is going to backfire on the Tories, badly. The famously progressive GB News appears to agree -
On The S*n's revelation that November dates are a bit shit, I have news for them - October's are worse.
Assuming that HMK has recovered from his big-C treatment he will be out of the country all month. Even if he isn't, October means calling the election in September, which means cancelling conference season, which means everyone will know in the summer that the "surprise" date is October.
Unless he pulls the trigger for 2nd May he will be like the copilot in the film Flight "Oh lord we're coming out of 7,000 [remaining Tory voters] and all I see is houses"
Nowhere to land without immolating the plane. And if the Trumpocalypse means he can't hold an election (did some of us not say this?) in November, then the obvious play is go long.
2nd May, 12th December, 23rd January. That's it.
KCIII dies in January, election postponed until February?
Would require an act of Parliament?
Yes it would
But Parliament would be dissolved, so not possible. Could not the Privy Council vary the date?
If you had an election on a Thursday and the Monarch expired on the Tuesday, would the election really not be postponed?
No. The legislation is clear. The PC can’t override Parliament who passed the Act. Amendments made by the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act to Schedule 1 to the Representation of the People Act 1983, the dissolution of Parliament automatically triggers a general election for the next Parliament. The Privy Council cannot override that.
On The S*n's revelation that November dates are a bit shit, I have news for them - October's are worse.
Assuming that HMK has recovered from his big-C treatment he will be out of the country all month. Even if he isn't, October means calling the election in September, which means cancelling conference season, which means everyone will know in the summer that the "surprise" date is October.
Unless he pulls the trigger for 2nd May he will be like the copilot in the film Flight "Oh lord we're coming out of 7,000 [remaining Tory voters] and all I see is houses"
Nowhere to land without immolating the plane. And if the Trumpocalypse means he can't hold an election (did some of us not say this?) in November, then the obvious play is go long.
2nd May, 12th December, 23rd January. That's it.
It's not really a play, though. That implies that Rishi is in control of the situation and will calmly choose the day that maximises Conservative success.
Whereas you and I know (as do Rishi and Harry, but they can't admit it out loud), there's no good day to have the election.
Run in May and lose big. Hold off until early winter and probably lose worse- albeit with six months more in office and a bit more time for the horse to learn to sing.
I think the Christmas thing rules out January. So that says December (and dumb as it would be, I still reckon December 19th). Unless Conservative MPs get so fractious that Rishi has to call an election to shut them up.
I think May can be -or-less ruled out now:
- It would require Sunak to call an election in around months' time. There is little prospect of a big polling turnaround in such a short time.
- In the absence of any chance of winning a new term, staying in office and passing whatever laws he seems appropriate seems the next best option for someone who has always wanted to be PM. 6 months extra is a reasonably material time period to do that.
- The longer the time period, the more likely 'something' turns up, positive or negative. From his perspective further bad news isn't too relevant - he's already losing a landslide with current polling.
... that still leaves October through to January available to choose from. I think all are possible, with October a slight favourite for me as I can't see significant new legalisation after the summer recess in any scenario.
May would be the "surprise" date. Pull off bigger tax cuts than billed, seize the agenda, get the client media to roll pre-planned Starmer attack stories. Unlikely, but still their best case scenario. -30%
September means campaigning over the summer - 10% October means cancelling the conference in the summer and has all the other issues we raised last time - 30% November would be an announcement at conference (which pledges fealty to Trump at various fringe meetings) and gets into the likely chaos of the US election - 20% December - Ride the US election out, go to the country. If he can do 5 years to the day since the Tory triumph all the better - 60% January - the "screw it Christmas hurts them more than it hurts us" election. I can write the media program for them now - Starmer will ruin your year etc etc
December is possibly underrated as an option, given the success last time. The true surprise would be August. Bank on Labour and Lib Dem voters being away on summer holiday with the kids. The only people left at home would be those old enough to travel outside school holidays, or too infirm to travel. It's a thought.
Or who have postal votes set up, too.
Given my recent experiences of the postal service I'm not sure those votes can be considered all that reliable anymore. Will they arrive back in time?
Also, with the Charles news, ain't no one calling an election while there is still treatment ongoing or in the event of Charles' death.
"Now is not the time to distract..." will be the line and then in Jan 25, at the last possible moment it will be more in sorrow than anger we have to have a GE HMK (says he/would have) wanted it that way democracy will continue, blah, blah.
I might double up on my Jan 25 bet.
No. Treatment for cancer can take a very long time. He might be being treated for it for over a year and the law requires that the election be held within the year. Politics as usual only paused a few weeks on the death of the late Queen. Notice the Tories have immediately reacted to Labour’s dentistry attack ad with some bandaid to a leg break gimmick. The campaign has already started.
read wot I wrote.
"..and then in Jan 25....we have to have an election..."
The wheels of the American justice system grind exceedingly slow but there has been an important change of pace in the last week or so.
The Court of Appeals found that Trump did not have immunity. Basically because the Constitution doesn't say he has whilst it does grant limited immunity elsewhere. This type of reasoning is somewhat problematic for an Originalist based SC. Trump says he will appeal of course but he does not have a right to a hearing in the SC and they just might say no.
The CFO of Trump's businesses is negotiating a plea bargain on perjury. He was the principal witness on financial matters in the fraud case in New York. Justice Erdogan wants to know about it. By today. The question of who suborned Alan Weisselberg to commit that perjury is next up on the rank but even as a starter this has the potential to make appealing Erdogan's judgment more difficult and justify even harsher penalties.
The hearing on whether Trump is able to be on the ballot at all goes before the SC tomorrow. I think the oral submissions are down for 2 days. As it is, I think that case encourages Haley to hang on in there as the last (wo)man standing if they rule against him.
My observation for the morning is that all 3 of these carry significant risk factors for Trump that do not seem to be reflected in his odds of being either the nominee or the next President.
The market will win out. If stories with lots of transgender kids get bums on seats, terrific. And if they turn off viewers like a dose of clap, then Disney will make an about turn very quickly indeed.
The market has been speaking to Disney for quite some time. Their stock hit a 10-year low at the end of last year.
The anti-wokeists have gone a bit quiet on it since their campaign failed.
The reason that Barbie was a success was unrelated to being Woke or not. It was simply a good, fairly original film, well acted and directed with good jokes, songs and visuals, as well as effective marketing.
People are less bothered about the politics of a film if it is a good film. That is also true of films like Forrest Gump, with its celebration of American Conservative values.
Make decent films and people will want to watch them.
The Quack from Leicester has spoken
Listen up, Hollywood
Mmmm, let me ponder for a moment... who is the better person, who would I turn to for advice in a tricky situation: the dedicated medical professional or the saddo puff-piece scribe?
Yep, not the toughest decision.
(And he's not wrong about films is he - make decent films and people will want to watch them.)
MY GOD WHAT AN INSIGHT
MAKE A DECENT FILM AND PEOPLE WILL WATCH IT
I, for one, cannot understand why @Foxy is slaving away with his chapped knuckles and high blood pressure as an anonymous, unthanked sawbones near Stoke on Trent when he could - RIGHT NOW - be sitting in a plush Bel Air office telling his minions his immortal truth and unique insight: "let's make good movies, and not bad movies, then people will watch them"
Talk to Malc. He’s better at this than you are. Your @ mentioning of the people you insult in the posts, making sure they get notified (“look at me, you smell!”) is probably the saddest part of your very sad persona.
As for the share price, it went from c.$67 to c.$54 in two months, that’s a 20% drop, or $25bn in market cap, according to your link.
Yes, but look at where the share price had been just a few months before - to three years or 'all', instead of one. The share price goes all over the place. In late 2019, the share price halved. The idea that the price fall was a 'crash' in respect to the share's volatility is ridiculous.
The share price dropped 20% in a couple of months, and still isn’t above where it was when this scandal started, despite a recovery following the Q3 report posted above, off the back of strong international sales. Bud Light is still screwed in the US though.
What was the share price in 2019 is totally irrelevant to the conversation, which related to Q2 last year.
'scandal'
LOL.
What happened in 2019 *is* relevant, as the halving in price it did then is a sign of how volatile the share price is. What you are claiming is a 'crash' just seems to be normal for this particular share. As another example,. look at the all between June and October 2021.
LOL
Did you miss the pandemic and war that made the 2020-2022 period so volatile?
Sales of their best-selling line in their biggest market dropped by 30%, and their share price was 20% off at the same time. Their problems were referred to in their earnings calls to investors, and the scandal went from being covered by media commentators to being covered by the financial press. I’m saying that just maybe there’s some correlation there.
Yes, which was why earlier I mentioned the larger fall in late 2019, *before* Covid.
And it goes to show my point: their share price is volatile, and has fallen much more in recent times due to factors other than pathetic man-babies. You are desperate to make this out to be a 'win' for the same man-babies who want Ukraine to lose to Russia coz that will somehow MAGA.
You what?
I said that a load of bad headlines and boycotts stemming from a marketing campaign dropped their sales by 30%, and the share price dropped 20% at the same time.
You’re saying there can’t possibly be any correlation because, err, Donald Trump Bad and Russia should win the war?
God knows what JJ is on about. You are right. People are not buying the product and that is having an effect.
Sales actually fell by more than 30% and were still down by 30% in December many months after the disastrous partnership with Mulvaney.
It's quite clear what I'm on about. @Sandpit breathlessly talked about a share price crash for the company owning Budweiser, not sales. I'm pointing out it was not a crash - at least, unless the share price 'crashes' by more regularly.
No, it really isn't. It is just meaningless gibberish droning on about man babies. A term you may have just discovered as you seem to be using it alot.
Also, with the Charles news, ain't no one calling an election while there is still treatment ongoing or in the event of Charles' death.
"Now is not the time to distract..." will be the line and then in Jan 25, at the last possible moment it will be more in sorrow than anger we have to have a GE HMK (says he/would have) wanted it that way democracy will continue, blah, blah.
I might double up on my Jan 25 bet.
No. Treatment for cancer can take a very long time. He might be being treated for it for over a year and the law requires that the election be held within the year. Politics as usual only paused a few weeks on the death of the late Queen. Notice the Tories have immediately reacted to Labour’s dentistry attack ad with some bandaid to a leg break gimmick. The campaign has already started.
read wot I wrote.
"..and then in Jan 25....we have to have an election..."
You also said “… no one calling an election while there is still treatment ongoing or in the event of Charles' death…” which is what I was specifically replying to.
The market will win out. If stories with lots of transgender kids get bums on seats, terrific. And if they turn off viewers like a dose of clap, then Disney will make an about turn very quickly indeed.
The market has been speaking to Disney for quite some time. Their stock hit a 10-year low at the end of last year.
The anti-wokeists have gone a bit quiet on it since their campaign failed.
The reason that Barbie was a success was unrelated to being Woke or not. It was simply a good, fairly original film, well acted and directed with good jokes, songs and visuals, as well as effective marketing.
People are less bothered about the politics of a film if it is a good film. That is also true of films like Forrest Gump, with its celebration of American Conservative values.
Make decent films and people will want to watch them.
Odd that the wokefinders don't understand that simple logic.
The same is also true of the anti woke gimps like JJ who seem to think it was a success because it was woke.
Also, with the Charles news, ain't no one calling an election while there is still treatment ongoing or in the event of Charles' death.
"Now is not the time to distract..." will be the line and then in Jan 25, at the last possible moment it will be more in sorrow than anger we have to have a GE HMK (says he/would have) wanted it that way democracy will continue, blah, blah.
I might double up on my Jan 25 bet.
No. Treatment for cancer can take a very long time. He might be being treated for it for over a year and the law requires that the election be held within the year. Politics as usual only paused a few weeks on the death of the late Queen. Notice the Tories have immediately reacted to Labour’s dentistry attack ad with some bandaid to a leg break gimmick. The campaign has already started.
read wot I wrote.
"..and then in Jan 25....we have to have an election..."
You also said “… no one calling an election while there is still treatment ongoing or in the event of Charles' death…” which is what I was specifically replying to.
Ah I see - well they won't want to was my point and would have a great excuse not to until the last possible, mandated moment.
New HMG proposals for NHS dentistry are out. Not very earthmoving. £20K one off payment to move to the sort of place HM cabinet ministers call shitetown isn't going to cut much ice. And "An extra £15 for dentists on top of the standard payment of £28 for seeing a patient who has not visited a dentist for two years" and "An increase of up to £50 per patient needing complex work".
Are the NHS dentistry deserts necessarily the "worst" areas ? I found one for us in Maltby not so long ago whereas considerably richer Bristol seems to be impossible to find one judging by the news reports.
Fair point. St Paul's is not a rich area, from what I recall of it admittedly a few decades ago. But if 90% of dentists aren't taking new NHS patients ...
On The S*n's revelation that November dates are a bit shit, I have news for them - October's are worse.
Assuming that HMK has recovered from his big-C treatment he will be out of the country all month. Even if he isn't, October means calling the election in September, which means cancelling conference season, which means everyone will know in the summer that the "surprise" date is October.
Unless he pulls the trigger for 2nd May he will be like the copilot in the film Flight "Oh lord we're coming out of 7,000 [remaining Tory voters] and all I see is houses"
Nowhere to land without immolating the plane. And if the Trumpocalypse means he can't hold an election (did some of us not say this?) in November, then the obvious play is go long.
2nd May, 12th December, 23rd January. That's it.
It's not really a play, though. That implies that Rishi is in control of the situation and will calmly choose the day that maximises Conservative success.
Whereas you and I know (as do Rishi and Harry, but they can't admit it out loud), there's no good day to have the election.
Run in May and lose big. Hold off until early winter and probably lose worse- albeit with six months more in office and a bit more time for the horse to learn to sing.
I think the Christmas thing rules out January. So that says December (and dumb as it would be, I still reckon December 19th). Unless Conservative MPs get so fractious that Rishi has to call an election to shut them up.
I think May can be -or-less ruled out now:
- It would require Sunak to call an election in around months' time. There is little prospect of a big polling turnaround in such a short time.
- In the absence of any chance of winning a new term, staying in office and passing whatever laws he seems appropriate seems the next best option for someone who has always wanted to be PM. 6 months extra is a reasonably material time period to do that.
- The longer the time period, the more likely 'something' turns up, positive or negative. From his perspective further bad news isn't too relevant - he's already losing a landslide with current polling.
... that still leaves October through to January available to choose from. I think all are possible, with October a slight favourite for me as I can't see significant new legalisation after the summer recess in any scenario.
May would be the "surprise" date. Pull off bigger tax cuts than billed, seize the agenda, get the client media to roll pre-planned Starmer attack stories. Unlikely, but still their best case scenario. -30%
September means campaigning over the summer - 10% October means cancelling the conference in the summer and has all the other issues we raised last time - 30% November would be an announcement at conference (which pledges fealty to Trump at various fringe meetings) and gets into the likely chaos of the US election - 20% December - Ride the US election out, go to the country. If he can do 5 years to the day since the Tory triumph all the better - 60% January - the "screw it Christmas hurts them more than it hurts us" election. I can write the media program for them now - Starmer will ruin your year etc etc
December is possibly underrated as an option, given the success last time. The true surprise would be August. Bank on Labour and Lib Dem voters being away on summer holiday with the kids. The only people left at home would be those old enough to travel outside school holidays, or too infirm to travel. It's a thought.
Or who have postal votes set up, too.
Given my recent experiences of the postal service I'm not sure those votes can be considered all that reliable anymore. Will they arrive back in time?
»In einigen europäischen Ländern – wie etwa in Großbritannien – gibt es eine parlamentarische Monarchie, wobei der König oder die Königin – ähnlich wie der Bundespräsident bei uns – keine politische Macht mehr hat, sondern als Staatsoberhaupt nur noch repräsentative Aufgaben wahrnimmt. Fänden Sie es gut, wenn es auch in Deutschland statt des Bundespräsidenten noch einen König oder eine Königin gäbe oder fänden Sie das nicht gut?«
Translated: "In some European countries - such as the UK - there is a parliamentary monarchy, where the king or queen - similar to the federal president in Germany - no longer has any political power, but only fulfils representative tasks as head of state. Would you be in favour of a king or queen instead of a federal president in Germany, or would you be against that?"
In favour 8% Against 89%
People vote for the status quo everywhere but in monarchies this is somewhat mitigated by monarchy being an inherent nonsense ("It kind of works, so we'll stick with it")
Looked at in a particular pragmatic way, all dignified, as opposed to efficient, bits of the state are inherent nonsense. In that light, monarchy is no worse than all the others.
Dignified bits of the state have wide ramifications. One of them would be having buildings like the HoP and Westminster Hall, rather than a conference centre in Barking or Hull, rented by the day, to meet in.
That's somewhat glosses over the intellectual issue with the monarchy, which is the absence of any requirement for the head of state to be competent or even sane. I do realise you can still end up with someone like Trump in a republic but at least he went through some sort of selection process.
My theory is that societies with less sophisticated governance tolerated the occasional imbecile as monarch, which was a disaster each time it happened, because in the round it was better than constant succession wars. In principle we're better than that now.
Any election forces a choice - by nature division.
Any selection ends up with a political placeman and/or a bureaucratic non-entity
A monarchy may have the occasional harmless fool, but they are a unifying feature that is non partisan and non political
“unifying feature”??? Charles I couldn’t even keep his head unified with the rest of his body, let alone unify the country/countries.
It’s more like a not-Boris, not-Truss, not-Farage is unifying.
The State should have non partisan functions. Charles is a figurehead who facilitates that
The market will win out. If stories with lots of transgender kids get bums on seats, terrific. And if they turn off viewers like a dose of clap, then Disney will make an about turn very quickly indeed.
The market has been speaking to Disney for quite some time. Their stock hit a 10-year low at the end of last year.
The anti-wokeists have gone a bit quiet on it since their campaign failed.
The reason that Barbie was a success was unrelated to being Woke or not. It was simply a good, fairly original film, well acted and directed with good jokes, songs and visuals, as well as effective marketing.
People are less bothered about the politics of a film if it is a good film. That is also true of films like Forrest Gump, with its celebration of American Conservative values.
Make decent films and people will want to watch them.
The Quack from Leicester has spoken
Listen up, Hollywood
Mmmm, let me ponder for a moment... who is the better person, who would I turn to for advice in a tricky situation: the dedicated medical professional or the saddo puff-piece scribe?
Yep, not the toughest decision.
(And he's not wrong about films is he - make decent films and people will want to watch them.)
MY GOD WHAT AN INSIGHT
MAKE A DECENT FILM AND PEOPLE WILL WATCH IT
I, for one, cannot understand why @Foxy is slaving away with his chapped knuckles and high blood pressure as an anonymous, unthanked sawbones near Stoke on Trent when he could - RIGHT NOW - be sitting in a plush Bel Air office telling his minions his immortal truth and unique insight: "let's make good movies, and not bad movies, then people will watch them"
It's one that seemed to be beyond you, earlier this morning.
That would basically leave me, @isam and @HYUFD as the solitary remaining rightwingers of note?
The relentless mediocre witless humourless lifeless inert festering smelly blob of twatty leftwing PB - from @DougSeal to @Foxy, from @kinabalu to @Benpointer to @RochdalePioneers to @Roger to @EvanGladne, in all its desperate and piffling monotony, will have overwhelmed and destroyed everything of value, like the ghastly fungus in The Last of Us
Bring back CASINO
Right wing? Oh behave. We all know you're a Liberal Democrat Councillor from Canon Frome.
On The S*n's revelation that November dates are a bit shit, I have news for them - October's are worse.
Assuming that HMK has recovered from his big-C treatment he will be out of the country all month. Even if he isn't, October means calling the election in September, which means cancelling conference season, which means everyone will know in the summer that the "surprise" date is October.
Unless he pulls the trigger for 2nd May he will be like the copilot in the film Flight "Oh lord we're coming out of 7,000 [remaining Tory voters] and all I see is houses"
Nowhere to land without immolating the plane. And if the Trumpocalypse means he can't hold an election (did some of us not say this?) in November, then the obvious play is go long.
2nd May, 12th December, 23rd January. That's it.
It's not really a play, though. That implies that Rishi is in control of the situation and will calmly choose the day that maximises Conservative success.
Whereas you and I know (as do Rishi and Harry, but they can't admit it out loud), there's no good day to have the election.
Run in May and lose big. Hold off until early winter and probably lose worse- albeit with six months more in office and a bit more time for the horse to learn to sing.
I think the Christmas thing rules out January. So that says December (and dumb as it would be, I still reckon December 19th). Unless Conservative MPs get so fractious that Rishi has to call an election to shut them up.
I think May can be -or-less ruled out now:
- It would require Sunak to call an election in around months' time. There is little prospect of a big polling turnaround in such a short time.
- In the absence of any chance of winning a new term, staying in office and passing whatever laws he seems appropriate seems the next best option for someone who has always wanted to be PM. 6 months extra is a reasonably material time period to do that.
- The longer the time period, the more likely 'something' turns up, positive or negative. From his perspective further bad news isn't too relevant - he's already losing a landslide with current polling.
... that still leaves October through to January available to choose from. I think all are possible, with October a slight favourite for me as I can't see significant new legalisation after the summer recess in any scenario.
May would be the "surprise" date. Pull off bigger tax cuts than billed, seize the agenda, get the client media to roll pre-planned Starmer attack stories. Unlikely, but still their best case scenario. -30%
September means campaigning over the summer - 10% October means cancelling the conference in the summer and has all the other issues we raised last time - 30% November would be an announcement at conference (which pledges fealty to Trump at various fringe meetings) and gets into the likely chaos of the US election - 20% December - Ride the US election out, go to the country. If he can do 5 years to the day since the Tory triumph all the better - 60% January - the "screw it Christmas hurts them more than it hurts us" election. I can write the media program for them now - Starmer will ruin your year etc etc
You think December/January will be calm n the US? Regardless of the outcome I disagree
The wheels of the American justice system grind exceedingly slow but there has been an important change of pace in the last week or so.
The Court of Appeals found that Trump did not have immunity. Basically because the Constitution doesn't say he has whilst it does grant limited immunity elsewhere. This type of reasoning is somewhat problematic for an Originalist based SC. Trump says he will appeal of course but he does not have a right to a hearing in the SC and they just might say no.
The CFO of Trump's businesses is negotiating a plea bargain on perjury. He was the principal witness on financial matters in the fraud case in New York. Justice Erdogan wants to know about it. By today. The question of who suborned Alan Weisselberg to commit that perjury is next up on the rank but even as a starter this has the potential to make appealing Erdogan's judgment more difficult and justify even harsher penalties.
The hearing on whether Trump is able to be on the ballot at all goes before the SC tomorrow. I think the oral submissions are down for 2 days. As it is, I think that case encourages Haley to hang on in there as the last (wo)man standing if they rule against him.
My observation for the morning is that all 3 of these carry significant risk factors for Trump that do not seem to be reflected in his odds of being either the nominee or the next President.
Your faith in judicial proceedings is heartening. But I can't shake the feeling that it is all entirely immaterial.
Trump instigated a storming of the Capitol (where someone was shot dead and staffers fled in fear of sexual assault), and he's openly discussing dictatorship and reprisal. His minions are interviewing Putin and voting against aid for Ukraine.
Yet he remains miles ahead of any other Republican. A few disapproving judgments from distant judges is not going to upset the enormous popular mandate he now has.
As for the share price, it went from c.$67 to c.$54 in two months, that’s a 20% drop, or $25bn in market cap, according to your link.
Yes, but look at where the share price had been just a few months before - to three years or 'all', instead of one. The share price goes all over the place. In late 2019, the share price halved. The idea that the price fall was a 'crash' in respect to the share's volatility is ridiculous.
The share price dropped 20% in a couple of months, and still isn’t above where it was when this scandal started, despite a recovery following the Q3 report posted above, off the back of strong international sales. Bud Light is still screwed in the US though.
What was the share price in 2019 is totally irrelevant to the conversation, which related to Q2 last year.
'scandal'
LOL.
What happened in 2019 *is* relevant, as the halving in price it did then is a sign of how volatile the share price is. What you are claiming is a 'crash' just seems to be normal for this particular share. As another example,. look at the all between June and October 2021.
LOL
Did you miss the pandemic and war that made the 2020-2022 period so volatile?
Sales of their best-selling line in their biggest market dropped by 30%, and their share price was 20% off at the same time. Their problems were referred to in their earnings calls to investors, and the scandal went from being covered by media commentators to being covered by the financial press. I’m saying that just maybe there’s some correlation there.
Yes, which was why earlier I mentioned the larger fall in late 2019, *before* Covid.
And it goes to show my point: their share price is volatile, and has fallen much more in recent times due to factors other than pathetic man-babies. You are desperate to make this out to be a 'win' for the same man-babies who want Ukraine to lose to Russia coz that will somehow MAGA.
You what?
I said that a load of bad headlines and boycotts stemming from a marketing campaign dropped their sales by 30%, and the share price dropped 20% at the same time.
You’re saying there can’t possibly be any correlation because, err, Donald Trump Bad and Russia should win the war?
God knows what JJ is on about. You are right. People are not buying the product and that is having an effect.
Sales actually fell by more than 30% and were still down by 30% in December many months after the disastrous partnership with Mulvaney.
It's quite clear what I'm on about. @Sandpit breathlessly talked about a share price crash for the company owning Budweiser, not sales. I'm pointing out it was not a crash - at least, unless the share price 'crashes' by more regularly.
No, it really isn't. It is just meaningless gibberish droning on about man babies. A term you may have just discovered as you seem to be using it alot.
And Sandpit is right about the share price.
I use the term 'man babies' and the like to describe anti-wokeists, as it fits quite well. People who think they're tough, but are triggered by inconsequentialities.
I'll try to explain the share price issue another way: saying "Our boycott caused the share price to crash!" sounds dramatic. It's rather less dramatic if you say "Our boycott possibly caused the share price to go down a lot less than normal market fluctuations."
As for the share price, it went from c.$67 to c.$54 in two months, that’s a 20% drop, or $25bn in market cap, according to your link.
Yes, but look at where the share price had been just a few months before - to three years or 'all', instead of one. The share price goes all over the place. In late 2019, the share price halved. The idea that the price fall was a 'crash' in respect to the share's volatility is ridiculous.
The share price dropped 20% in a couple of months, and still isn’t above where it was when this scandal started, despite a recovery following the Q3 report posted above, off the back of strong international sales. Bud Light is still screwed in the US though.
What was the share price in 2019 is totally irrelevant to the conversation, which related to Q2 last year.
'scandal'
LOL.
What happened in 2019 *is* relevant, as the halving in price it did then is a sign of how volatile the share price is. What you are claiming is a 'crash' just seems to be normal for this particular share. As another example,. look at the all between June and October 2021.
LOL
Did you miss the pandemic and war that made the 2020-2022 period so volatile?
Sales of their best-selling line in their biggest market dropped by 30%, and their share price was 20% off at the same time. Their problems were referred to in their earnings calls to investors, and the scandal went from being covered by media commentators to being covered by the financial press. I’m saying that just maybe there’s some correlation there.
I don't know. People were complaining about Disney being politically correct in the 90s. 4 years ago 'political correctness' got replaced with 'woke'. Their share price seems to have hit an all-time high in March 2021. Need a bit more evidence than some shaky correlation.
AFAIK the only recent Disney thing I watched was the Ahsoka series from 2023, which I found OK. Main problem - just too slow, and not much story to care about. Don't think that can be blamed on 'woke', but I'm sure people will find a way.
The problem seems to be insanely bad writing decisions. Throughout Hollyweird.
Take Game Of Thrones. The show runners said they were bored and burnt out and wanted to finish the show then and there.
The studio didn’t say “thanks, here’s a nice payoff. Someone get me a zillion dollars worth of the best writers to finish it.”
Instead they road their billion dollar property into a wall. Hard.
Same with Star Wars - childish fighting between directors on the films, and no overall plans.
Comments
September means campaigning over the summer - 10%
October means cancelling the conference in the summer and has all the other issues we raised last time - 30%
November would be an announcement at conference (which pledges fealty to Trump at various fringe meetings) and gets into the likely chaos of the US election - 20%
December - Ride the US election out, go to the country. If he can do 5 years to the day since the Tory triumph all the better - 60%
January - the "screw it Christmas hurts them more than it hurts us" election. I can write the media program for them now - Starmer will ruin your year etc etc
'Gaetz went on to describe Ken, Barbie’s famously flamboyant plastic companion, as exhibiting “Disappointingly low T,” which means low testosterone.'
Not easy putting hair on the chest of a plastic doll. And she'd complain if they put the obvious missing bits in!
Sensible, thoughtful approaches to important issues whether they come from a conservative or liberal origin generally go down reasonably well with the public and stick around, usually when they make actual sense and people can see there is some sort of logic behind them.
Nutty stuff from people more concerned with ideological purity or grifting for clicks is nutty whoever it comes from, including the slick of gobbledegook coming out of parts of higher education (which was equally there in the 1990s, I remember it well) and the performance art that is things like Trump's circus or the PopCon conference.
A minimum of almost 2 and a half years as PM is not too shabby. The history books will have R. Sunak; Prime Minister (2022- 2025). Something might have come along, and three days after the Trump inauguration could focus voters's minds with threats to the UK by POTUS if they elect a woke-commie government.
I am also convinced the 3m ex-pat voters shoehorned into marginal seats and voter ID chaos will play well for the Conservative Party.
Listen up, Hollywood
https://www.gbnews.com/politics/expats-vote-general-election-conservative-party-brexit
It will also induce a sense of absolute boredom with the idea of an election and instead of the excited rush with the chance to boot the Tories out in a month’s time the air will come out of it a bit and people will get jaded.
It also forces the various Tory factions to stop infighting and pushing for leadership change and they can focus their attacks outward for a few months.
Now someone will tell me you can’t announce it well in advance but I think it’s the best chance the Tories have of reducing the damage.
Johnson, now there is someone who always wanted to be PM imo; shame he made such a horlicks of it.
Interesting when you properly look at the dates how few are actually viable for various reasons.
New HMG proposals for NHS dentistry are out. Not very earthmoving. £20K one off payment to move to the sort of place HM cabinet ministers call shitetown isn't going to cut much ice. And "An extra £15 for dentists on top of the standard payment of £28 for seeing a patient who has not visited a dentist for two years" and "An increase of up to £50 per patient needing complex work".
But at last, the government is tackling Labour's 14 years of neglect of NHS dental services. I eagerly await the next "Recovery Plan" aimed at undoing Labour's neglect of other public services.
Yep, not the toughest decision.
(And he's not wrong about films is he - make decent films and people will want to watch them.)
If you had an election on a Thursday and the Monarch expired on the Tuesday, would the election really not be postponed?
https://twitter.com/TheBDA/status/1755147141859741817
The utter failure in NHS dentistry should be one of the more urgent things to address. The on costs to the NHS over time from poor dental health are substantial (aren't they, Foxy ?).
More money spent on basic dentistry for these currently without provision would very likely save money in the medium term.
That would basically leave me, @isam and @HYUFD as the solitary remaining rightwingers of note?
The relentless mediocre witless humourless lifeless inert festering smelly blob of twatty leftwing PB - from @DougSeal to @Foxy, from @kinabalu to @Benpointer to @RochdalePioneers to @Roger to @EvanGladne, in all its desperate and piffling monotony, will have overwhelmed and destroyed everything of value, like the ghastly fungus in The Last of Us
Bring back CASINO
MAKE A DECENT FILM AND PEOPLE WILL WATCH IT
I, for one, cannot understand why @Foxy is slaving away with his chapped knuckles and high blood pressure as an anonymous, unthanked sawbones near Stoke on Trent when he could - RIGHT NOW - be sitting in a plush Bel Air office telling his minions his immortal truth and unique insight: "let's make good movies, and not bad movies, then people will watch them"
Slight flaw in their methodology there.
"..and then in Jan 25....we have to have an election..."
The Court of Appeals found that Trump did not have immunity. Basically because the Constitution doesn't say he has whilst it does grant limited immunity elsewhere. This type of reasoning is somewhat problematic for an Originalist based SC. Trump says he will appeal of course but he does not have a right to a hearing in the SC and they just might say no.
The CFO of Trump's businesses is negotiating a plea bargain on perjury. He was the principal witness on financial matters in the fraud case in New York. Justice Erdogan wants to know about it. By today. The question of who suborned Alan Weisselberg to commit that perjury is next up on the rank but even as a starter this has the potential to make appealing Erdogan's judgment more difficult and justify even harsher penalties.
The hearing on whether Trump is able to be on the ballot at all goes before the SC tomorrow. I think the oral submissions are down for 2 days. As it is, I think that case encourages Haley to hang on in there as the last (wo)man standing if they rule against him.
My observation for the morning is that all 3 of these carry significant risk factors for Trump that do not seem to be reflected in his odds of being either the nominee or the next President.
And Sandpit is right about the share price.
A good movie is a good movie.
The State should have non partisan functions. Charles is a figurehead who facilitates that
Trump instigated a storming of the Capitol (where someone was shot dead and staffers fled in fear of sexual assault), and he's openly discussing dictatorship and reprisal. His minions are interviewing Putin and voting against aid for Ukraine.
Yet he remains miles ahead of any other Republican. A few disapproving judgments from distant judges is not going to upset the enormous popular mandate he now has.
I think we should actually BRACE for once
I'll try to explain the share price issue another way: saying "Our boycott caused the share price to crash!" sounds dramatic. It's rather less dramatic if you say "Our boycott possibly caused the share price to go down a lot less than normal market fluctuations."
Take Game Of Thrones. The show runners said they were bored and burnt out and wanted to finish the show then and there.
The studio didn’t say “thanks, here’s a nice payoff. Someone get me a zillion dollars worth of the best writers to finish it.”
Instead they road their billion dollar property into a wall. Hard.
Same with Star Wars - childish fighting between directors on the films, and no overall plans.
And so on and so on.