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Ken Clarke is dead right on the Rwanda bill – politicalbetting.com

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  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728
    algarkirk said:

    Have we noted the long open letter from Matt Goodwin to Rishi, via the rest of the world's population, suggesting that Rishi should campaign more or less on the single issue of offering a referendum on immigration.

    I don't support this at all, and it wouldn't change my vote but it would, I think, galvanise the election.

    https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/an-open-letter-to-rishi-sunak

    Would it? Whatever your views on the issue, it could quite easily be dismissed as a stupid gimmick designed to cover up failure.

    Brexit is now very unpopular, in large part because it's seen as a fraud designed to distract from the then government's failure and splits, that's made things worse because of that fact.

    "Let's do that again but in stereo" is unlikely to be popular, even if in a referendum you'd vote for huge cuts to immigration. Anyone could legitimately ask whether, if you can cut immigration after a vote, why not just do it now?

    At least with Brexit there was an immediate choice - even if in practice it is much more complex. An immigration referendum is just laughable when you consider how it might work.

    Goodwin is an interesting example of someone who has gone mad and joined the cannibals he's meant to be studying.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,703
    Foxy said:

    Cookie said:

    isam said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris Smyth
    @Smyth_Chris

    One in nine children now has a disability after a post-pandemic surge driven by mental health conditions such as ADHD

    Analysis of DWP figures show some really striking trends 1/

    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1751985359997550953

    I think my son is the only boy in his year who is not on ADHD medication. Sadly, though, this is not a new thing. Doctors in the US are incredibly free with Adderell, Ritalin and the like.
    Most of them probably shouldn't be on medication.
    Medicating young children with behavioural problems will surely be something history looks back on us at with amazement
    A personal reflection: our youngest has ADHD. We can't blame covid: it's been clear since she was a wee baby. Constantly wriggling, she was. She also has a ferocious temper, which can be a bit of a problem at school, and we worry that it might lead to an exclusion once she gets to senior school. That said, most of the time she is lovely; she's no Bart Simpson.
    We tried her on medication. At first it was transformational: not only could she concentrate, she was far less angry. But after a few weeks, her overall mood was worse than before (possibly because of one of the side effects, which is that it is more difficult to get to sleep). We've tried various different drugs and dosages, but none really seemed to work; or rather they worked, but at the expense of her happiness. We're probably now leaning to the view that they do more harm than good and have taken her off the meds.
    That said, there is a lot more going on than just ADHD. She has a dairy intolerance which we only found out about when she was 6, which surely didn't help her mood; we are constantly trying her with different vitamins (partly to get around what she misses from no dairy), and we're also going through the process of exercises for retained reflexes. (This sounds hokum, but seems to be a positive). We've also tried various therapy sessions for the anger. And in amongst all this, of course, she's growing up.

    She's still a challenge, but she's in a much better place than she was a couple of years ago.

    ADHD definitely exists, and ADHD meds do 'work' - but they're not without side effects, and they're certainly not the only way of dealing with the condition.

    Yes, I have a nephew with it and medication certainly helps.

    Many kids with milder ADHD find out door pursuits, nature, dogs and music calming. Keep them off the gadgets after tea too. It all sounds a bit Baden-Powell but it works.
    Does anyone in medicine know what the long term effect of being on these drugs from a young age for years and years is?

    I suspect the answer is 'no'.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    edited January 30
    isam said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris Smyth
    @Smyth_Chris

    One in nine children now has a disability after a post-pandemic surge driven by mental health conditions such as ADHD

    Analysis of DWP figures show some really striking trends 1/

    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1751985359997550953

    I think my son is the only boy in his year who is not on ADHD medication. Sadly, though, this is not a new thing. Doctors in the US are incredibly free with Adderell, Ritalin and the like.
    Most of them probably shouldn't be on medication.
    Medicating young children with behavioural problems will surely be something history looks back on us at with amazement
    That may be putting it mildly.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    edited January 30

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "David Goodhart
    @David_Goodhart

    Just seen 148 people graduating (including masters and doctorates) from City University in speech and language therapy. Just two were young men. If this was engineering and the male/female ratio was anything like that there would be outrage."

    https://twitter.com/David_Goodhart/status/1752292139818434650

    There was a news report on the BBC a couple of weeks back about how girls were outperforming boys at school in all subjects and at all years (apart from maths at 16 and 18). It was said with a 'hooray, isn't this good news?' tone of voice.' I amused myself by considering how cross the reporting would have been had the reverse been the case.
    Yes, presumably one sex always outperforms the other at any given subject in any given year? i.e. they are never exactly identical. I met an engineering professor in Bristol once who told me that there would never be as many women as men on his courses because for the most part women weren't interested in the topic. Said when he did get female applicants he welcomed them and indeed encouraged them; but in his view there would never be critical mass of applicants to get anywhere near parity, and that was fine, and is just the way of the world.
    Why is it the way of the world that women aren't interested in the topic (or men in pharmacy)? That's what he should have been asking.
    Because men and women are different?

    Similarly, a (female) friend of mine recently came back from a railway conference making sardonic remarks about the lack of women, as if there was some conspiracy to keep women out of the railway industry, rather than it simply being the case that boys like trains.
    Much of that difference appears to represent society pushing men and women into different roles because of outmoded beliefs, which means we're not necessarily getting the best engineers or the best pharmacists.
    And there is at least some evidence that gender stereotypes are a factor- you get more girls choosing to do physics and excelling at it in all girls schools than in mixed schools. That points to something social rather than intrinsic preferences.

    (Fun fact: the girls' comprehensive in Romford has a working miniature ride-on railway, maintained by pupils. Flip knows where the original funding came from.)
    It's pretty well documented that early socialisation, particularly parenting, is much more influential in creating gender stereotypes and therefore future subject/career choices than anything schools can do - it's often too late by school time.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067

    algarkirk said:

    Have we noted the long open letter from Matt Goodwin to Rishi, via the rest of the world's population, suggesting that Rishi should campaign more or less on the single issue of offering a referendum on immigration.

    I don't support this at all, and it wouldn't change my vote but it would, I think, galvanise the election.

    https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/an-open-letter-to-rishi-sunak

    Absolutely brilliant. Let's heal the nation's wounds by having (another) referendum.

    Brenda from Bristol would not approve, Matt.
    I think he means galvanise Tory turnout.
    I doubt it would help much.

    Isn't Goodwin one of the 'wokeism is a religion' crew ? Sounds a bit of a prat.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    malcolmg said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Bored again

    BUT TODAY I AM ALLOWED TO DRINK

    hahahah

    But what if you choose not to ?
    I would literally expire from the tedium

    Tomorrow another dry day. And so it goes

    Getting an AWFUL lot of work done, tho
    I haven't had a drink for 18 months. It does make life very boring. But you sleep better.
    Think I would rather have a bit less sleep now and again.
    Despite being a good sleeper all my life I recently found it harder and harder to get to sleep at night. Solution turned out to be simple: no caffeine after about 4pm asleep within minutes of hitting the sack now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,703
    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    Have we noted the long open letter from Matt Goodwin to Rishi, via the rest of the world's population, suggesting that Rishi should campaign more or less on the single issue of offering a referendum on immigration.

    I don't support this at all, and it wouldn't change my vote but it would, I think, galvanise the election.

    https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/an-open-letter-to-rishi-sunak

    Absolutely brilliant. Let's heal the nation's wounds by having (another) referendum.

    Brenda from Bristol would not approve, Matt.
    I think he means galvanise Tory turnout.
    I doubt it would help much.

    Isn't Goodwin one of the 'wokeism is a religion' crew ? Sounds a bit of a prat.
    He believes the country is being run by an elite of progressive academics even though the tories have been in power for well over a decade. Or something like that.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Lots of Welsh polling here.

    Labour lead the Conservatives by 28% in Wales, a new high.

    Wales Westminster VI (24-26 January):

    Labour 48% (+1)
    Conservatives 20% (-2)
    Reform 12% (+2)
    Plaid Cymru 11% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 4% (-2)
    Green 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (+1)

    Changes +/- 10-11 December


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1752376128608837741

    The DRAKE’s genius 20mph power play bearing fruit.

    You have to hand it to him.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    edited January 30
    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    Have we noted the long open letter from Matt Goodwin to Rishi, via the rest of the world's population, suggesting that Rishi should campaign more or less on the single issue of offering a referendum on immigration.

    I don't support this at all, and it wouldn't change my vote but it would, I think, galvanise the election.

    https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/an-open-letter-to-rishi-sunak

    Absolutely brilliant. Let's heal the nation's wounds by having (another) referendum.

    Brenda from Bristol would not approve, Matt.
    I think he means galvanise Tory turnout.
    I doubt it would help much.

    Isn't Goodwin one of the 'wokeism is a religion' crew ? Sounds a bit of a prat.
    Not familiar with the gent. How is he on the C of E? And its establishment within the state? If he's complaining that wokeism is a religion, qua religion, and by implication therefore it's bad, then he needs to consider what the implications are ...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,703
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    Have we noted the long open letter from Matt Goodwin to Rishi, via the rest of the world's population, suggesting that Rishi should campaign more or less on the single issue of offering a referendum on immigration.

    I don't support this at all, and it wouldn't change my vote but it would, I think, galvanise the election.

    https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/an-open-letter-to-rishi-sunak

    Absolutely brilliant. Let's heal the nation's wounds by having (another) referendum.

    Brenda from Bristol would not approve, Matt.
    I think he means galvanise Tory turnout.
    I doubt it would help much.

    Isn't Goodwin one of the 'wokeism is a religion' crew ? Sounds a bit of a prat.
    Not familiar with the gent. How is he on the C of E? And its establishment within the state? If he's complaining that wokeism is a religion, then he needs to consider what the implications are ...
    C of E?

    Riddled with mushy wokeism.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,800
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    FPT...

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Population predicted to rise to 74 million.

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1752283330484056127

    Why do you hang on to that utter (k)nob's every last word?
    Is he wrong?
    We need another 10 million people to pay off the debt run up by boomers. But first we need to convince millennials and gen-xers that it will be a thoroughly good thing. It's going quite well, I'd say.
    From the actual source. The ONS


    “Over the 15 years between mid-2021 and mid-2036, the UK population is projected to grow by 6.6 million people.

    This includes 541,000 more births than deaths and international net migration of 6.1 million people.”

    Utter insanity. Any party that promises to stop this, and does it, will win big. That’s not the Tories, they cannot be trusted

    We may have to start our own party
    I've never got the argument that "students" should drop out of the migration figures because they are only here for a temporary course: firstly, if they were, they'd be netted out of the migration figures anyway and, secondly, it's quite clear that the majority stay so they need to be.
    The majority do not stay. What tosh. Why come here and post nonsense?
    given they have no records of in or out how do you work that one out. Shedloads bringing their families with them and guaranteed they are not leaving given the huge population increases
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/topicspecificmethodology details, at great length, the methodologies used by the ONS for immigration figures.

    You say it is "guaranteed they are not leaving". OK, if it's guaranteed, prove it.
    You just need to look at the population explosion in England since turn of the century, they were not home grown for sure.
    The numbers for legal migration are just mind blowing. From a subpage linked to the link above:

    "There were 3,287,404 visas granted in the year ending June 2023, 58% higher than the year ending June 2022. This was primarily due to 889,821 (+96%) more grants of visitor visas, but also due to more grants for:

    work visas (including dependants), up 208,295 (+63%) to 538,887
    study visas (including dependants), up 165,968 (+34%) to 657,208, including sponsored and short-term students."

    It is very easy to be critical of Border Force, the Home Office and the government generally but the sheer scale of the number of movements of people is incredible. The same page estimates that there were 125m passenger arrivals in the UK from outside the CTA (ie not including the Irish). Pretty damn close to twice the population of the entire country. No wonder they are not coping.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,778

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris Smyth
    @Smyth_Chris

    One in nine children now has a disability after a post-pandemic surge driven by mental health conditions such as ADHD

    Analysis of DWP figures show some really striking trends 1/

    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1751985359997550953

    I think my son is the only boy in his year who is not on ADHD medication. Sadly, though, this is not a new thing. Doctors in the US are incredibly free with Adderell, Ritalin and the like.
    Most of them probably shouldn't be on medication.
    That's fee for service health care for you!
    Doesn't explain why the parents go along with the idea of ramming meds down kids throats.

    Don't any of them worry about side effects, long term effects of being on a mental health med etc etc?
    Well, in my case, yes, of course you worry.
    But when you have two children whose behaviour and general demeanour makes other parents weep with envy and one who is, er, challenging, you spend a significant portion of your time, money and mental energy trying to find a solution.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399

    Lots of Welsh polling here.

    Labour lead the Conservatives by 28% in Wales, a new high.

    Wales Westminster VI (24-26 January):

    Labour 48% (+1)
    Conservatives 20% (-2)
    Reform 12% (+2)
    Plaid Cymru 11% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 4% (-2)
    Green 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (+1)

    Changes +/- 10-11 December


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1752376128608837741

    The DRAKE’s genius 20mph power play bearing fruit.

    You have to hand it to him.

    Relatively simple to hand anything to him travelling at that speed.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,344

    "The IMF has recommended strengthening carbon and property taxation, eliminating loopholes in wealth and income taxation, and reforming the pensions triple lock."

    So basically none of the things that Sunak will do then.

    Apart from the last, I don’t have much sympathy for the IMF
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375

    malcolmg said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Bored again

    BUT TODAY I AM ALLOWED TO DRINK

    hahahah

    But what if you choose not to ?
    I would literally expire from the tedium

    Tomorrow another dry day. And so it goes

    Getting an AWFUL lot of work done, tho
    I haven't had a drink for 18 months. It does make life very boring. But you sleep better.
    Think I would rather have a bit less sleep now and again.
    Despite being a good sleeper all my life I recently found it harder and harder to get to sleep at night. Solution turned out to be simple: no caffeine after about 4pm asleep within minutes of hitting the sack now.
    I've found that it's okay to have caffeine after 4pm as long as I follow it with a bottle of red. Sleep like a baby.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,778
    Foxy said:

    Cookie said:

    isam said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris Smyth
    @Smyth_Chris

    One in nine children now has a disability after a post-pandemic surge driven by mental health conditions such as ADHD

    Analysis of DWP figures show some really striking trends 1/

    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1751985359997550953

    I think my son is the only boy in his year who is not on ADHD medication. Sadly, though, this is not a new thing. Doctors in the US are incredibly free with Adderell, Ritalin and the like.
    Most of them probably shouldn't be on medication.
    Medicating young children with behavioural problems will surely be something history looks back on us at with amazement
    A personal reflection: our youngest has ADHD. We can't blame covid: it's been clear since she was a wee baby. Constantly wriggling, she was. She also has a ferocious temper, which can be a bit of a problem at school, and we worry that it might lead to an exclusion once she gets to senior school. That said, most of the time she is lovely; she's no Bart Simpson.
    We tried her on medication. At first it was transformational: not only could she concentrate, she was far less angry. But after a few weeks, her overall mood was worse than before (possibly because of one of the side effects, which is that it is more difficult to get to sleep). We've tried various different drugs and dosages, but none really seemed to work; or rather they worked, but at the expense of her happiness. We're probably now leaning to the view that they do more harm than good and have taken her off the meds.
    That said, there is a lot more going on than just ADHD. She has a dairy intolerance which we only found out about when she was 6, which surely didn't help her mood; we are constantly trying her with different vitamins (partly to get around what she misses from no dairy), and we're also going through the process of exercises for retained reflexes. (This sounds hokum, but seems to be a positive). We've also tried various therapy sessions for the anger. And in amongst all this, of course, she's growing up.

    She's still a challenge, but she's in a much better place than she was a couple of years ago.

    ADHD definitely exists, and ADHD meds do 'work' - but they're not without side effects, and they're certainly not the only way of dealing with the condition.

    Yes, I have a nephew with it and medication certainly helps.

    Many kids with milder ADHD find out door pursuits, nature, dogs and music calming. Keep them off the gadgets after tea too. It all sounds a bit Baden-Powell but it works.
    Good advice for any child, or adult, ADHD or otherwise!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,628
    edited January 30
    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    Have we noted the long open letter from Matt Goodwin to Rishi, via the rest of the world's population, suggesting that Rishi should campaign more or less on the single issue of offering a referendum on immigration.

    I don't support this at all, and it wouldn't change my vote but it would, I think, galvanise the election.

    https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/an-open-letter-to-rishi-sunak

    Absolutely brilliant. Let's heal the nation's wounds by having (another) referendum.

    Brenda from Bristol would not approve, Matt.
    I think he means galvanise Tory turnout.
    I doubt it would help much.

    Isn't Goodwin one of the 'wokeism is a religion' crew ? Sounds a bit of a prat.
    He's an absolute [moderated].

    Out of respect for OGH I cannot repeat what most pollsters and academics think about Matt Goodwin.


    I think like David Irving he always manages to find the most favourable analysis for his side.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,930
    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Also, after the age of, say, 75, does it matter if you are an alky?

    Any years after that are surely a bonus, so if you do them sozzled, fair play

    Only three years to go! Can’t wait!
    Not you, but I wonder if elsewhere in the discussion an old PB fallacy is reappearing? Average life expectancy in the population, or a. l. at birth, or a.l. at the age of 75 or whatevs are all different.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/nationallifetablesunitedkingdom/2020to2022#life-expectancy-at-older-ages

    "The increased mortality seen since the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has also led to a decline in period life expectancy at age 65 years compared with 2017 to 2019. In 2020 to 2022, this was estimated to be 18.3 years for males and 20.8 years for females in the UK. These estimates are approximately the same as the level of life expectancy at age 65 in 2011 to 2013 for both males and females.

    Period life expectancy at age 90 years in the UK was 3.8 years for males and 4.5 years for females in 2020 to 2022."
    Healthy life expectancy is a different thing and probably hasn’t increased significantly.
    That's more important, isn't it. I don't know the data but I'd have thought healthy life expectancy was well correlated to total life expectancy. The only way it wouldn't be (that I can think of) is if medical advances are to a large extent about better managing serious conditions rather than curing or preventing them.
    The major difference is dementia. We can keep people alive for longer physically, but not mentally.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Bored again

    BUT TODAY I AM ALLOWED TO DRINK

    hahahah

    But what if you choose not to ?
    I would literally expire from the tedium

    Tomorrow another dry day. And so it goes

    Getting an AWFUL lot of work done, tho
    I haven't had a drink for 18 months. It does make life very boring. But you sleep better.
    Is this for medical reasons AAMOI. I ask because many of my friends have cut down drinking significantly, as have I. One has given it up completely but does from time to time bemoan the absence of a good glass of burgundy, or whatever. I have no idea why they don't just have the odd glass of wine.

    I get the "all or nothing" mentality but it seems illogical. My friend doesn't think that one glass will lead to 10 pints of snakebite and five bottles of a decent red.
    Yes, I don’t understand the “give up entirely” brigade unless you are in danger of actual alcoholism. There is ample evidence SOME drinking is physically good for you - phenols, red wines, etc - and even if you dispute that (as some doctors do), it is indisputable that the social benefits of MODERATE drinking are significant. The Mediterranean diet specifically includes a few glasses of vino as part of the deal, it makes you happier and more social and outgoing even if there are NO physiological positives

    Unless you are a problem drinker, why quit entirely?

    I simply want to scale back to a more sensible intake
    But you are an alcoholic, aren't you? Hence the amount of headspace taken up with thoughts of booze, what to have, how much of it, the rules and safeguards required to keep it all under control. I also was/am and so I recognize this very well. It was age, essentially, that helped me out.
    Yes, i am an alcoholic, no question

    However I am also possessed of SUPER HUMAN WILLPOWER

    Eg I quite heroin at the age of 37 when practically everyone around me (God bless them, they tried to help) had given up on me. I did it with will power. You just have to want something ENOUGH, and - all being equal - you can do it. Quitting cigs was a doddle, for me

    So, I reckon I can do this. Moderate my booze intake to a sensible level so I can still enjoy wine as and when. Wish me luck
    Good Luck.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068
    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris Smyth
    @Smyth_Chris

    One in nine children now has a disability after a post-pandemic surge driven by mental health conditions such as ADHD

    Analysis of DWP figures show some really striking trends 1/

    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1751985359997550953

    I think my son is the only boy in his year who is not on ADHD medication. Sadly, though, this is not a new thing. Doctors in the US are incredibly free with Adderell, Ritalin and the like.
    One thing I've picked up from watching more Youtube tracking the downfall of Mr Trump has been the weirdness of Usonian advert and broadcasters who consent to read them out pretending to use them themself, including medical adverts.

    Otherwise sensible Youtube hosts asserting their use of products such as the Lomi electric home composter, which would use 150kWh of electricity per annum in my setting to produce a bit of soil from foodwaste apparently saves the planet. That's adding nearly 5-10% to my electricity usage including heating.

    Or subscription hot chocolate at $1-2 a cup. Or an entire slew of adverts referring to Erectile Disfunction as "ED" because all Yanks are delicate blossoms, and Youtube has Mary Poppins as its auto-censor.

    Really bizarre. I'll keep my eyes open for interesting stuff.

    What a completely screwed-up country.
    Raycon ear buds! Skillshare! Nebula! Squarespace! The Great Courses Plus! Grammarly! Ground News! World of Tanks! War Thunder! Hi, I'm the Adstronaut!
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,930

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "David Goodhart
    @David_Goodhart

    Just seen 148 people graduating (including masters and doctorates) from City University in speech and language therapy. Just two were young men. If this was engineering and the male/female ratio was anything like that there would be outrage."

    https://twitter.com/David_Goodhart/status/1752292139818434650

    There was a news report on the BBC a couple of weeks back about how girls were outperforming boys at school in all subjects and at all years (apart from maths at 16 and 18). It was said with a 'hooray, isn't this good news?' tone of voice.' I amused myself by considering how cross the reporting would have been had the reverse been the case.
    Yes, presumably one sex always outperforms the other at any given subject in any given year? i.e. they are never exactly identical. I met an engineering professor in Bristol once who told me that there would never be as many women as men on his courses because for the most part women weren't interested in the topic. Said when he did get female applicants he welcomed them and indeed encouraged them; but in his view there would never be critical mass of applicants to get anywhere near parity, and that was fine, and is just the way of the world.
    Why is it the way of the world that women aren't interested in the topic (or men in pharmacy)? That's what he should have been asking.
    Because men and women are different?

    Similarly, a (female) friend of mine recently came back from a railway conference making sardonic remarks about the lack of women, as if there was some conspiracy to keep women out of the railway industry, rather than it simply being the case that boys like trains.
    Much of that difference appears to represent society pushing men and women into different roles because of outmoded beliefs, which means we're not necessarily getting the best engineers or the best pharmacists.
    And there is at least some evidence that gender stereotypes are a factor- you get more girls choosing to do physics and excelling at it in all girls schools than in mixed schools. That points to something social rather than intrinsic preferences.

    (Fun fact: the girls' comprehensive in Romford has a working miniature ride-on railway, maintained by pupils. Flip knows where the original funding came from.)
    An anonymous donation from Sunil?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    edited January 30

    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    Have we noted the long open letter from Matt Goodwin to Rishi, via the rest of the world's population, suggesting that Rishi should campaign more or less on the single issue of offering a referendum on immigration.

    I don't support this at all, and it wouldn't change my vote but it would, I think, galvanise the election.

    https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/an-open-letter-to-rishi-sunak

    Absolutely brilliant. Let's heal the nation's wounds by having (another) referendum.

    Brenda from Bristol would not approve, Matt.
    I think he means galvanise Tory turnout.
    I doubt it would help much.

    Isn't Goodwin one of the 'wokeism is a religion' crew ? Sounds a bit of a prat.
    He's an absolute [moderated].

    Out of respect for OGH I cannot repeat what most pollsters and academics think about Matt Goodwin.


    I think like David Irving he always manages to find the most favourable analysis for his side.
    I suspect he (Goodwin) is stretching the tolerance of his employer (University of Kent) with his forays into non-academic polemics.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679

    ICYMI from 10 days ago, veteran Conservative columnist Simon Heffer is interviewed:-

    Idiotic Tory MPs lack intelligence, ideology and purpose
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLG6xjfOZ-Q

    Is he right that Boris's Cabinet was the worst in history? He does think Rishi might turn it round btw.

    Thanks. Heffer was interesting. But who was the young buck doing the interview? (He seemed as admiring of Hitler and Enoch Powell as he was critical of the Biden White House.)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,567

    I'm watching the BBC documentary on Putin vs the West: the path to war.

    It is excellent. It covers the period from 2013, when Viktor Yanukovych reneged on the EU trade deal, all the way up to the eve of the war in Ukraine over three episodes. The interviews are excellent and include, on our side, ones with David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson and the various national security advisors. It covers many of the EU leaders, and also key figures in the Obama and Trump administrations.

    What comes across clearly (and this is a BBC documentary) is the timidity and hesitancy of the Obama administration to avoid 'provoking' Putin, whilst Trump signed over javelin supplies to Ukraine in his first year of office - which Obama had refused - and also expelled 60+ Russian intelligence officer post Salisbury, far more than any EU country.

    I hold no candle for Trump and I think he's a repugnant individual but I'm not wholly convinced a second Trump administration will be a disaster for Western security. And nor do I think he's sincere about "withdrawing" from NATO, except to get the Europeans to pay a bit more.

    I expected the 2016 Trump presidency to be a disaster. It wasn't good, but it was nowhere near as bad as I feared.

    However, there's been a lot of water under the bridge since then, and the January 6th Capitol attack, his reaction to it, the court cases, and his general rhetoric, make me even more fearful of a Trump 2024 win than I was in 2016.

    America deserves better. It probably deserves better than Biden as well, for that matter. But give the choice (and given the fact I have no vote...) I'm firmly on Team Biden.

    The bigger question is who can pull America together again, and how.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    Am I alone in being highly suspicious of the hubris around the alleged deal on N Ireland?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,815

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "David Goodhart
    @David_Goodhart

    Just seen 148 people graduating (including masters and doctorates) from City University in speech and language therapy. Just two were young men. If this was engineering and the male/female ratio was anything like that there would be outrage."

    https://twitter.com/David_Goodhart/status/1752292139818434650

    There was a news report on the BBC a couple of weeks back about how girls were outperforming boys at school in all subjects and at all years (apart from maths at 16 and 18). It was said with a 'hooray, isn't this good news?' tone of voice.' I amused myself by considering how cross the reporting would have been had the reverse been the case.
    Yes, presumably one sex always outperforms the other at any given subject in any given year? i.e. they are never exactly identical. I met an engineering professor in Bristol once who told me that there would never be as many women as men on his courses because for the most part women weren't interested in the topic. Said when he did get female applicants he welcomed them and indeed encouraged them; but in his view there would never be critical mass of applicants to get anywhere near parity, and that was fine, and is just the way of the world.
    Why is it the way of the world that women aren't interested in the topic (or men in pharmacy)? That's what he should have been asking.
    Because men and women are different?

    Similarly, a (female) friend of mine recently came back from a railway conference making sardonic remarks about the lack of women, as if there was some conspiracy to keep women out of the railway industry, rather than it simply being the case that boys like trains.
    Much of that difference appears to represent society pushing men and women into different roles because of outmoded beliefs, which means we're not necessarily getting the best engineers or the best pharmacists.
    And there is at least some evidence that gender stereotypes are a factor- you get more girls choosing to do physics and excelling at it in all girls schools than in mixed schools. That points to something social rather than intrinsic preferences.

    (Fun fact: the girls' comprehensive in Romford has a working miniature ride-on railway, maintained by pupils. Flip knows where the original funding came from.)
    An anonymous donation from Sunil?
    Nope, first I've heard of that school!
  • Am I alone in being highly suspicious of the hubris around the alleged deal on N Ireland?

    No, we all remember the hype over the oven ready Brexit deal then the Windsor agreement.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Lots of Welsh polling here.

    Labour lead the Conservatives by 28% in Wales, a new high.

    Wales Westminster VI (24-26 January):

    Labour 48% (+1)
    Conservatives 20% (-2)
    Reform 12% (+2)
    Plaid Cymru 11% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 4% (-2)
    Green 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (+1)

    Changes +/- 10-11 December


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1752376128608837741

    The DRAKE’s genius 20mph power play bearing fruit.

    You have to hand it to him.

    Can't overtake the Drake.
    Chapeau
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,800
    edited January 30
    Cookie said:

    isam said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris Smyth
    @Smyth_Chris

    One in nine children now has a disability after a post-pandemic surge driven by mental health conditions such as ADHD

    Analysis of DWP figures show some really striking trends 1/

    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1751985359997550953

    I think my son is the only boy in his year who is not on ADHD medication. Sadly, though, this is not a new thing. Doctors in the US are incredibly free with Adderell, Ritalin and the like.
    Most of them probably shouldn't be on medication.
    Medicating young children with behavioural problems will surely be something history looks back on us at with amazement
    A personal reflection: our youngest has ADHD. We can't blame covid: it's been clear since she was a wee baby. Constantly wriggling, she was. She also has a ferocious temper, which can be a bit of a problem at school, and we worry that it might lead to an exclusion once she gets to senior school. That said, most of the time she is lovely; she's no Bart Simpson.
    We tried her on medication. At first it was transformational: not only could she concentrate, she was far less angry. But after a few weeks, her overall mood was worse than before (possibly because of one of the side effects, which is that it is more difficult to get to sleep). We've tried various different drugs and dosages, but none really seemed to work; or rather they worked, but at the expense of her happiness. We're probably now leaning to the view that they do more harm than good and have taken her off the meds.
    That said, there is a lot more going on than just ADHD. She has a dairy intolerance which we only found out about when she was 6, which surely didn't help her mood; we are constantly trying her with different vitamins (partly to get around what she misses from no dairy), and we're also going through the process of exercises for retained reflexes. (This sounds hokum, but seems to be a positive). We've also tried various therapy sessions for the anger. And in amongst all this, of course, she's growing up.

    She's still a challenge, but she's in a much better place than she was a couple of years ago.

    ADHD definitely exists, and ADHD meds do 'work' - but they're not without side effects, and they're certainly not the only way of dealing with the condition.

    Not only does ADHD exist, it is far more common than it used to be. Whether this is because of our diet, our environment, modern stress levels or whatever is unclear but there is little doubt that its prevalence is increasing and it is not just more being recorded (which can, in fairness, be a factor).

    What I would say, at the risk of giving you false hope, is that many seem to grow out of it. My son certainly did. He liked and still likes structure, clear guidance and instruction. Especially in primary school he genuinely struggled with the more modern, well, what do you fancy doing today? The more he knew exactly what he was to be doing and when the easier he found it to control himself and to focus. Best of luck!
  • Lots of Welsh polling here.

    Labour lead the Conservatives by 28% in Wales, a new high.

    Wales Westminster VI (24-26 January):

    Labour 48% (+1)
    Conservatives 20% (-2)
    Reform 12% (+2)
    Plaid Cymru 11% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 4% (-2)
    Green 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (+1)

    Changes +/- 10-11 December


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1752376128608837741

    The DRAKE’s genius 20mph power play bearing fruit.

    You have to hand it to him.

    Can't overtake the Drake.
    Drakeford has tanked in the polls since the 20mph debacle and is now - 18

    In the meantime Starmer is +1 and it is UK labour in the ascendency not Drakeford
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris Smyth
    @Smyth_Chris

    One in nine children now has a disability after a post-pandemic surge driven by mental health conditions such as ADHD

    Analysis of DWP figures show some really striking trends 1/

    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1751985359997550953

    I think my son is the only boy in his year who is not on ADHD medication. Sadly, though, this is not a new thing. Doctors in the US are incredibly free with Adderell, Ritalin and the like.
    Surprising, I thought they might be incredibly expensive.
    They're all generics these days.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129
    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris Smyth
    @Smyth_Chris

    One in nine children now has a disability after a post-pandemic surge driven by mental health conditions such as ADHD

    Analysis of DWP figures show some really striking trends 1/

    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1751985359997550953

    I think my son is the only boy in his year who is not on ADHD medication. Sadly, though, this is not a new thing. Doctors in the US are incredibly free with Adderell, Ritalin and the like.
    Most of them probably shouldn't be on medication.
    Most of them should simply have better diets and spend less time on screens. That would, I suspect, make a bigger change to behaviour.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    I note this thread has been Goodwinned YET AGAIN. I blame @AndyJS who - for reasons known only to himself - follows the clown around like a lovesick puppy.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    algarkirk said:

    Have we noted the long open letter from Matt Goodwin to Rishi, via the rest of the world's population, suggesting that Rishi should campaign more or less on the single issue of offering a referendum on immigration.

    I don't support this at all, and it wouldn't change my vote but it would, I think, galvanise the election.

    https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/an-open-letter-to-rishi-sunak

    Why do the PB Conservative right give succour to this distressed moron?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631

    Foxy said:

    Cookie said:

    isam said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris Smyth
    @Smyth_Chris

    One in nine children now has a disability after a post-pandemic surge driven by mental health conditions such as ADHD

    Analysis of DWP figures show some really striking trends 1/

    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1751985359997550953

    I think my son is the only boy in his year who is not on ADHD medication. Sadly, though, this is not a new thing. Doctors in the US are incredibly free with Adderell, Ritalin and the like.
    Most of them probably shouldn't be on medication.
    Medicating young children with behavioural problems will surely be something history looks back on us at with amazement
    A personal reflection: our youngest has ADHD. We can't blame covid: it's been clear since she was a wee baby. Constantly wriggling, she was. She also has a ferocious temper, which can be a bit of a problem at school, and we worry that it might lead to an exclusion once she gets to senior school. That said, most of the time she is lovely; she's no Bart Simpson.
    We tried her on medication. At first it was transformational: not only could she concentrate, she was far less angry. But after a few weeks, her overall mood was worse than before (possibly because of one of the side effects, which is that it is more difficult to get to sleep). We've tried various different drugs and dosages, but none really seemed to work; or rather they worked, but at the expense of her happiness. We're probably now leaning to the view that they do more harm than good and have taken her off the meds.
    That said, there is a lot more going on than just ADHD. She has a dairy intolerance which we only found out about when she was 6, which surely didn't help her mood; we are constantly trying her with different vitamins (partly to get around what she misses from no dairy), and we're also going through the process of exercises for retained reflexes. (This sounds hokum, but seems to be a positive). We've also tried various therapy sessions for the anger. And in amongst all this, of course, she's growing up.

    She's still a challenge, but she's in a much better place than she was a couple of years ago.

    ADHD definitely exists, and ADHD meds do 'work' - but they're not without side effects, and they're certainly not the only way of dealing with the condition.

    Yes, I have a nephew with it and medication certainly helps.

    Many kids with milder ADHD find out door pursuits, nature, dogs and music calming. Keep them off the gadgets after tea too. It all sounds a bit Baden-Powell but it works.
    Does anyone in medicine know what the long term effect of being on these drugs from a young age for years and years is?

    I suspect the answer is 'no'.
    They certainly work for many kids in terms of behaviour, and can be used long term. Often families do "drug holidays" outside of school terms to see if still needed.

    This is an interesting blog by a now retired child psychiatrist with many interesting and humane ideas.

    http://cockroachcatcher.blogspot.com/2012/06/anorexia-nervosa-law-reversal.html

    We are increasingly recognising "neuro-diversity" in our students, with about 15% having some form. Most are clearly high functioning in that they have got into medical school, but recognising these traits helps them to function and others to work with them. It's not about making excuses for people, but rather rather putting square pegs in square holes etc.



  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375

    Am I alone in being highly suspicious of the hubris around the alleged deal on N Ireland?

    No. I don't think the DUP will last long with a Sinn Fein First Minister.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,815

    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "David Goodhart
    @David_Goodhart

    Just seen 148 people graduating (including masters and doctorates) from City University in speech and language therapy. Just two were young men. If this was engineering and the male/female ratio was anything like that there would be outrage."

    https://twitter.com/David_Goodhart/status/1752292139818434650

    There was a news report on the BBC a couple of weeks back about how girls were outperforming boys at school in all subjects and at all years (apart from maths at 16 and 18). It was said with a 'hooray, isn't this good news?' tone of voice.' I amused myself by considering how cross the reporting would have been had the reverse been the case.
    Yes, presumably one sex always outperforms the other at any given subject in any given year? i.e. they are never exactly identical. I met an engineering professor in Bristol once who told me that there would never be as many women as men on his courses because for the most part women weren't interested in the topic. Said when he did get female applicants he welcomed them and indeed encouraged them; but in his view there would never be critical mass of applicants to get anywhere near parity, and that was fine, and is just the way of the world.
    Why is it the way of the world that women aren't interested in the topic (or men in pharmacy)? That's what he should have been asking.
    Why should he? Is it not OK that a lot of women and few men should be interested in make up, or a lot of men and a few women should like Hornby train sets? As long as we're not excluding the exceptions aggressively, who gives a ***k? Is a 50/50 gender split in everything a state of being with some inalienable merit?
    OO (Double O) train sets mix 1:76 train bodies with 1:87 track gauge, and are therefore NOT scale models, they are TOYS!

    HO is proper 1:87 scale!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,872
    Two trends on Twitter



    Elon fans please explain whether these two have been seen in the same room.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,815

    Am I alone in being highly suspicious of the hubris around the alleged deal on N Ireland?

    No. I don't think the DUP will last long with a Sinn Fein First Minister.
    I don't think I would last long with Michelle O'Neill :blush:

    EDIT: Ooops, wrong forum!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,105
    MJW said:

    algarkirk said:

    Have we noted the long open letter from Matt Goodwin to Rishi, via the rest of the world's population, suggesting that Rishi should campaign more or less on the single issue of offering a referendum on immigration.

    I don't support this at all, and it wouldn't change my vote but it would, I think, galvanise the election.

    https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/an-open-letter-to-rishi-sunak

    Would it? Whatever your views on the issue, it could quite easily be dismissed as a stupid gimmick designed to cover up failure.

    Brexit is now very unpopular, in large part because it's seen as a fraud designed to distract from the then government's failure and splits, that's made things worse because of that fact.

    "Let's do that again but in stereo" is unlikely to be popular, even if in a referendum you'd vote for huge cuts to immigration. Anyone could legitimately ask whether, if you can cut immigration after a vote, why not just do it now?

    At least with Brexit there was an immediate choice - even if in practice it is much more complex. An immigration referendum is just laughable when you consider how it might work.

    Goodwin is an interesting example of someone who has gone mad and joined the cannibals he's meant to be studying.
    If I don't see another referendum in my lifetime it will be too soon for me. And definitely not on Immigration. The last one we had was on that.
  • Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    Have we noted the long open letter from Matt Goodwin to Rishi, via the rest of the world's population, suggesting that Rishi should campaign more or less on the single issue of offering a referendum on immigration.

    I don't support this at all, and it wouldn't change my vote but it would, I think, galvanise the election.

    https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/an-open-letter-to-rishi-sunak

    Absolutely brilliant. Let's heal the nation's wounds by having (another) referendum.

    Brenda from Bristol would not approve, Matt.
    I think he means galvanise Tory turnout.
    I doubt it would help much.

    Isn't Goodwin one of the 'wokeism is a religion' crew ? Sounds a bit of a prat.
    He's an absolute [moderated].

    Out of respect for OGH I cannot repeat what most pollsters and academics think about Matt Goodwin.

    I think like David Irving he always manages to find the most favourable analysis for his side.
    "I think like David Irving ... "

    I was relieved on scrolling down to find more!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Also, after the age of, say, 75, does it matter if you are an alky?

    Any years after that are surely a bonus, so if you do them sozzled, fair play

    Only three years to go! Can’t wait!
    Not you, but I wonder if elsewhere in the discussion an old PB fallacy is reappearing? Average life expectancy in the population, or a. l. at birth, or a.l. at the age of 75 or whatevs are all different.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/nationallifetablesunitedkingdom/2020to2022#life-expectancy-at-older-ages

    "The increased mortality seen since the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has also led to a decline in period life expectancy at age 65 years compared with 2017 to 2019. In 2020 to 2022, this was estimated to be 18.3 years for males and 20.8 years for females in the UK. These estimates are approximately the same as the level of life expectancy at age 65 in 2011 to 2013 for both males and females.

    Period life expectancy at age 90 years in the UK was 3.8 years for males and 4.5 years for females in 2020 to 2022."
    Healthy life expectancy is a different thing and probably hasn’t increased significantly.
    That's more important, isn't it. I don't know the data but I'd have thought healthy life expectancy was well correlated to total life expectancy. The only way it wouldn't be (that I can think of) is if medical advances are to a large extent about better managing serious conditions rather than curing or preventing them.
    The major difference is dementia. We can keep people alive for longer physically, but not mentally.
    Yes we can keep people alive mentally, and pertinent to this thread reducing alcohol intake is part of that.

    https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ng16
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 689
    edited January 30
    Leon said:

    PB BRAINS TRUST

    Has any PB-er ever been to the Stans of Central Asia?

    I AM DESPERATE TO GET TO THE STANS OF CENTRAL ASIA

    I am making some nice money what with working so hard and halving my drinking and I am prepared to SPUNK IT all over some travel to the last corners of the the globe I do not know. The STANS rank high. I intend to go this summer

    However it would be nice if I could get the Knappers Gazette to commission me to write about the “Rhyolite Sex Ticklers of Samarkand” so if any well travelled PBer thinks there is a story to be written about the STANS please tell me, and I will pray for you at the confluence of the Mekong and the Tonle Sap

    The mountains of heaven: Tien Shan, that’s gotta be amazing. But what’s the angle?

    Leon said:

    PB BRAINS TRUST

    Has any PB-er ever been to the Stans of Central Asia?

    I AM DESPERATE TO GET TO THE STANS OF CENTRAL ASIA

    I am making some nice money what with working so hard and halving my drinking and I am prepared to SPUNK IT all over some travel to the last corners of the the globe I do not know. The STANS rank high. I intend to go this summer

    However it would be nice if I could get the Knappers Gazette to commission me to write about the “Rhyolite Sex Ticklers of Samarkand” so if any well travelled PBer thinks there is a story to be written about the STANS please tell me, and I will pray for you at the confluence of the Mekong and the Tonle Sap

    The mountains of heaven: Tien Shan, that’s gotta be amazing. But what’s the angle?

    Visit Turkmenistan. To visit Orlov's Well.

    But on the way count how many people are doing non-jobs. There is a lady street sweeper every 100m from the airport to the centre of Ashgabat. And there are at least 2 policemen with hand held radar guns at every traffic light in the city. All of the (ethnic) Turkmens were promised a job when they kicked the Soviets out (even though they may be mindless tedious ones). Still better than the ones the ethnic Russians got though.....

  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 689
    Ohhh...and if you visit Kazakhstan dont plan on going home alone...
  • malcolmg said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Bored again

    BUT TODAY I AM ALLOWED TO DRINK

    hahahah

    But what if you choose not to ?
    I would literally expire from the tedium

    Tomorrow another dry day. And so it goes

    Getting an AWFUL lot of work done, tho
    I haven't had a drink for 18 months. It does make life very boring. But you sleep better.
    Think I would rather have a bit less sleep now and again.
    Despite being a good sleeper all my life I recently found it harder and harder to get to sleep at night. Solution turned out to be simple: no caffeine after about 4pm asleep within minutes of hitting the sack now.
    When I went to A & E at 2.00am on the 9th January with chest pains I was sent home by the doctor and consultant, after extensive tests, to rest and not to drink coffee pending my operation, which says how much a stimulant it is
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Also, after the age of, say, 75, does it matter if you are an alky?

    Any years after that are surely a bonus, so if you do them sozzled, fair play

    Only three years to go! Can’t wait!
    Not you, but I wonder if elsewhere in the discussion an old PB fallacy is reappearing? Average life expectancy in the population, or a. l. at birth, or a.l. at the age of 75 or whatevs are all different.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/nationallifetablesunitedkingdom/2020to2022#life-expectancy-at-older-ages

    "The increased mortality seen since the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has also led to a decline in period life expectancy at age 65 years compared with 2017 to 2019. In 2020 to 2022, this was estimated to be 18.3 years for males and 20.8 years for females in the UK. These estimates are approximately the same as the level of life expectancy at age 65 in 2011 to 2013 for both males and females.

    Period life expectancy at age 90 years in the UK was 3.8 years for males and 4.5 years for females in 2020 to 2022."
    Healthy life expectancy is a different thing and probably hasn’t increased significantly.
    That's more important, isn't it. I don't know the data but I'd have thought healthy life expectancy was well correlated to total life expectancy. The only way it wouldn't be (that I can think of) is if medical advances are to a large extent about better managing serious conditions rather than curing or preventing them.
    The major difference is dementia. We can keep people alive for longer physically, but not mentally.
    Yes we can keep people alive mentally, and pertinent to this thread reducing alcohol intake is part of that.

    https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ng16
    Is there evidence alcohol increases dementia risk or is that a list of general good health suggestions that might, for example, keep down blood pressure which I know plays a big role in vascular dementia?

    Asking for about half of PB.
  • Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    Have we noted the long open letter from Matt Goodwin to Rishi, via the rest of the world's population, suggesting that Rishi should campaign more or less on the single issue of offering a referendum on immigration.

    I don't support this at all, and it wouldn't change my vote but it would, I think, galvanise the election.

    https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/an-open-letter-to-rishi-sunak

    Absolutely brilliant. Let's heal the nation's wounds by having (another) referendum.

    Brenda from Bristol would not approve, Matt.
    I think he means galvanise Tory turnout.
    I doubt it would help much.

    Isn't Goodwin one of the 'wokeism is a religion' crew ? Sounds a bit of a prat.
    He's an absolute [moderated].

    Out of respect for OGH I cannot repeat what most pollsters and academics think about Matt Goodwin.

    I think like David Irving he always manages to find the most favourable analysis for his side.
    "I think like David Irving ... "

    I was relieved on scrolling down to find more!
    I like David Irving a lot.

    He has managed to ensure that being a Holocaust denier has serious legal consequences.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris Smyth
    @Smyth_Chris

    One in nine children now has a disability after a post-pandemic surge driven by mental health conditions such as ADHD

    Analysis of DWP figures show some really striking trends 1/

    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1751985359997550953

    I think my son is the only boy in his year who is not on ADHD medication. Sadly, though, this is not a new thing. Doctors in the US are incredibly free with Adderell, Ritalin and the like.
    That is a different problem and it messes up the figures because parents and students use these as performance-enhancing drugs. It is not even that we are medicalising normal variation if these diagnostic labels are deliberately sought in order to access smart drugs and educational concessions. It is hard. A friend of mine bought his son so-called glasses to help him read better and give him an advantage at school. Where do you draw the line? Heck, even I had modafinil although long after my student years.
    If it had been available when I was a student (or, indeed, a junior analyst at Goldman Sachs) I'm sure I would have abused ritalin as a performance enhancer. Who wouldn't want to be able to work for four hours with a high level of concentration, even when you've been awake for 25 hours?
  • algarkirk said:

    Have we noted the long open letter from Matt Goodwin to Rishi, via the rest of the world's population, suggesting that Rishi should campaign more or less on the single issue of offering a referendum on immigration.

    I don't support this at all, and it wouldn't change my vote but it would, I think, galvanise the election.

    https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/an-open-letter-to-rishi-sunak

    Why do the PB Conservative right give succour to this distressed moron?
    I really cannot see anything he says helps, other than pandering to the right
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129
    Nigelb said:

    Biden to reporters, via pool report:

    Q: Should Trump be allowed on the ballot?

    Biden: "That's fine."

    https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/1752367127841894835

    Biden should be out there demanding that Trump is on the ballot. Nothing would dent Trump's chances of winning the Republican nomination more.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,703
    The cash may continue to roll in:


    Teddy Schleifer
    @teddyschleifer
    ·
    2h
    NEW — GOP megadonor Ken Griffin, speaking at a Miami conference to
    @JBoorstin
    says that
    @NikkiHaley
    is a “tremendous candidate.”

    “We’re down to two people on the Republican side running for president. I have supported Nikki Haley. I think she is a tremendous candidate.”
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,872
    Tony Bloom and Patrick Veitch to team up as Brighton & Hove Albion chairman eyes increased presence on the Flat
    https://www.racingpost.com/news/britain/tony-bloom-and-patrick-veitch-to-team-up-as-brighton-hove-albion-chairman-eyes-increased-presence-on-the-flat-abywZ1Q8TV1g/ (£££)

    Further to @rcs1000 & I debating the merits of Bloom and Veitch as professional punters recently, they are now teaming up to buy more horses.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,372
    Interesting from the Iranian regime. The US doesn’t want conflict, neither do they. Make of that what you will.

    I’d expect, based on this, the US are going to strike against Iranian proxies not based in Iran.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1752369048396898442?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    MJW said:

    algarkirk said:

    Have we noted the long open letter from Matt Goodwin to Rishi, via the rest of the world's population, suggesting that Rishi should campaign more or less on the single issue of offering a referendum on immigration.

    I don't support this at all, and it wouldn't change my vote but it would, I think, galvanise the election.

    https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/an-open-letter-to-rishi-sunak

    Would it? Whatever your views on the issue, it could quite easily be dismissed as a stupid gimmick designed to cover up failure.

    Brexit is now very unpopular, in large part because it's seen as a fraud designed to distract from the then government's failure and splits, that's made things worse because of that fact.

    "Let's do that again but in stereo" is unlikely to be popular, even if in a referendum you'd vote for huge cuts to immigration. Anyone could legitimately ask whether, if you can cut immigration after a vote, why not just do it now?

    At least with Brexit there was an immediate choice - even if in practice it is much more complex. An immigration referendum is just laughable when you consider how it might work.

    Goodwin is an interesting example of someone who has gone mad and joined the cannibals he's meant to be studying.
    All this is true, AND it would galvanise the election.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,664
    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Also, after the age of, say, 75, does it matter if you are an alky?

    Any years after that are surely a bonus, so if you do them sozzled, fair play

    Only three years to go! Can’t wait!
    Not you, but I wonder if elsewhere in the discussion an old PB fallacy is reappearing? Average life expectancy in the population, or a. l. at birth, or a.l. at the age of 75 or whatevs are all different.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/nationallifetablesunitedkingdom/2020to2022#life-expectancy-at-older-ages

    "The increased mortality seen since the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has also led to a decline in period life expectancy at age 65 years compared with 2017 to 2019. In 2020 to 2022, this was estimated to be 18.3 years for males and 20.8 years for females in the UK. These estimates are approximately the same as the level of life expectancy at age 65 in 2011 to 2013 for both males and females.

    Period life expectancy at age 90 years in the UK was 3.8 years for males and 4.5 years for females in 2020 to 2022."
    Healthy life expectancy is a different thing and probably hasn’t increased significantly.
    That's more important, isn't it. I don't know the data but I'd have thought healthy life expectancy was well correlated to total life expectancy. The only way it wouldn't be (that I can think of) is if medical advances are to a large extent about better managing serious conditions rather than curing or preventing them.
    The major difference is dementia. We can keep people alive for longer physically, but not mentally.
    Yes we can keep people alive mentally, and pertinent to this thread reducing alcohol intake is part of that.

    https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ng16
    Mother in law did all of those things but still has Alzheimer's.

    I'm pretty sure she'd have preferred succumbing to breast cancer half a dozen years ago like she would have done in the past.

    We are nowhere near dealing with it yet.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,872
    edited January 30

    ICYMI from 10 days ago, veteran Conservative columnist Simon Heffer is interviewed:-

    Idiotic Tory MPs lack intelligence, ideology and purpose
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLG6xjfOZ-Q

    Is he right that Boris's Cabinet was the worst in history? He does think Rishi might turn it round btw.

    Thanks. Heffer was interesting. But who was the young buck doing the interview? (He seemed as admiring of Hitler and Enoch Powell as he was critical of the Biden White House.)
    “David Cameron had this thing called the A-list, where he just put people on for tokenistic reasons; there weren't enough people of colour, there weren't enough women and obviously there weren't enough idiots, because he put quite a lot of those onto the candidates list as well.”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLG6xjfOZ-Q
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,372
    We were discussing Deepti Gurdasani, zero covid and diet safe earlier.

    This popped up on my twitter feed.

    I guess she’s consistent.

    https://x.com/dgurdasani1/status/1747431291434467821?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    "UK considering recognising Palestine state, Lord Cameron says"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68137220
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,703
    Andy_JS said:

    "UK considering recognising Palestine state, Lord Cameron says"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68137220

    Oh!!! Something major afoot? There has been talk of a deal involving Quatar??
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068

    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    FPT...

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Population predicted to rise to 74 million.

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1752283330484056127

    Why do you hang on to that utter (k)nob's every last word?
    Is he wrong?
    We need another 10 million people to pay off the debt run up by boomers. But first we need to convince millennials and gen-xers that it will be a thoroughly good thing. It's going quite well, I'd say.
    From the actual source. The ONS


    “Over the 15 years between mid-2021 and mid-2036, the UK population is projected to grow by 6.6 million people.

    This includes 541,000 more births than deaths and international net migration of 6.1 million people.”

    Utter insanity. Any party that promises to stop this, and does it, will win big. That’s not the Tories, they cannot be trusted

    We may have to start our own party
    I've never got the argument that "students" should drop out of the migration figures because they are only here for a temporary course: firstly, if they were, they'd be netted out of the migration figures anyway and, secondly, it's quite clear that the majority stay so they need to be.
    The majority do not stay. What tosh. Why come here and post nonsense?
    given they have no records of in or out how do you work that one out. Shedloads bringing their families with them and guaranteed they are not leaving given the huge population increases
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/topicspecificmethodology details, at great length, the methodologies used by the ONS for immigration figures.

    You say it is "guaranteed they are not leaving". OK, if it's guaranteed, prove it.
    You just need to look at the population explosion in England since turn of the century, they were not home grown for sure.
    The numbers for legal migration are just mind blowing. From a subpage linked to the link above:

    "There were 3,287,404 visas granted in the year ending June 2023, 58% higher than the year ending June 2022. This was primarily due to 889,821 (+96%) more grants of visitor visas, but also due to more grants for:

    work visas (including dependants), up 208,295 (+63%) to 538,887
    study visas (including dependants), up 165,968 (+34%) to 657,208, including sponsored and short-term students."

    It is very easy to be critical of Border Force, the Home Office and the government generally but the sheer scale of the number of movements of people is incredible. The same page estimates that there were 125m passenger arrivals in the UK from outside the CTA (ie not including the Irish). Pretty damn close to twice the population of the entire country. No wonder they are not coping.
    Weren't most of them Leon?
    Well yes, but the number of Leon departures is also great. It's a zero-sum Leon, so to speak.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,035
    Andy_JS said:

    "UK considering recognising Palestine state, Lord Cameron says"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68137220

    We should also recognise Somaliland. And Taiwan. At least if the UN principle of self-determination means anything.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    "Violent brawl breaks out during parliamentary session in the Maldives"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggAdwSYy6rU
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    Penddu2 said:

    Ohhh...and if you visit Kazakhstan dont plan on going home alone...

    I used to work with someone who got a job out there. It ended in divorce when his wife found out what he was getting up to.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...

    Lots of Welsh polling here.

    Labour lead the Conservatives by 28% in Wales, a new high.

    Wales Westminster VI (24-26 January):

    Labour 48% (+1)
    Conservatives 20% (-2)
    Reform 12% (+2)
    Plaid Cymru 11% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 4% (-2)
    Green 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (+1)

    Changes +/- 10-11 December


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1752376128608837741

    The DRAKE’s genius 20mph power play bearing fruit.

    You have to hand it to him.

    Can't overtake the Drake.
    Drakeford has tanked in the polls since the 20mph debacle and is now - 18

    In the meantime Starmer is +1 and it is UK labour in the ascendency not Drakeford
    Drakeford is off, but Jeremy Myles soiled himself on national TV today, refusing to answer whether he had read the Piss Report.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit gave this 'relationship' as an example of unfair bias against Trump, this morning.

    E Jean Carroll’s lawyer has reserved the right to file rule 11 SANCTIONS against Alina Habba for fabricating a conflict of interest between the judge and Carroll’s lawyer. 1/

    Habba alleged Roberta Kaplan and Judge Kaplan had a mentor-mentee relationship at a law firm they both worked for, and that the judge failed to disclose it. Problem is, it was over 30 years ago, at a massive firm, and the two never crossed paths.

    https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1752376607057285468

    A quiet reminder that three of the current Supreme Court Judges were Republican activists working the Gore/Bush Florida ballot dispute.

    Some of their fellow activists at the time have appeared before the court in arguments. No Republican has ever raised that as an issue.

    No he didn’t. He made no comment whatsoever about this ‘relationship’.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Biden to reporters, via pool report:

    Q: Should Trump be allowed on the ballot?

    Biden: "That's fine."

    https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/1752367127841894835

    Biden should be out there demanding that Trump is on the ballot. Nothing would dent Trump's chances of winning the Republican nomination more.
    Biden - and the administration (notably the Justice Department, which would normally weigh in on such constitutional issues) - are staying neutral on the issue.
    It’s a question of constitutional law, and not for the president to ‘demand’.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009

    "The IMF has recommended strengthening carbon and property taxation, eliminating loopholes in wealth and income taxation, and reforming the pensions triple lock."

    So basically none of the things that Sunak will do then.

    Strengthening carbon taxation?

    Better stock up on diamonds and graphite before the budget.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,242
    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris Smyth
    @Smyth_Chris

    One in nine children now has a disability after a post-pandemic surge driven by mental health conditions such as ADHD

    Analysis of DWP figures show some really striking trends 1/

    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1751985359997550953

    I think my son is the only boy in his year who is not on ADHD medication. Sadly, though, this is not a new thing. Doctors in the US are incredibly free with Adderell, Ritalin and the like.
    Most of them probably shouldn't be on medication.
    In the U.K., the medication(s) for ADHD are very strictly controlled and is prescribed after a formal diagnosis by a specialist.

    The idea that you can get them like Smarties is Daily Heil level stuff
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    Taz said:

    Interesting from the Iranian regime. The US doesn’t want conflict, neither do they. Make of that what you will.

    I’d expect, based on this, the US are going to strike against Iranian proxies not based in Iran.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1752369048396898442?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ

    If the Iranians don't want conflict they have a funny way of going about it. I suggest what they don't want is retaliation.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,556

    Lots of Welsh polling here.

    Labour lead the Conservatives by 28% in Wales, a new high.

    Wales Westminster VI (24-26 January):

    Labour 48% (+1)
    Conservatives 20% (-2)
    Reform 12% (+2)
    Plaid Cymru 11% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 4% (-2)
    Green 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (+1)

    Changes +/- 10-11 December


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1752376128608837741

    Another shocker for the LibDems...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited January 30

    ...

    Lots of Welsh polling here.

    Labour lead the Conservatives by 28% in Wales, a new high.

    Wales Westminster VI (24-26 January):

    Labour 48% (+1)
    Conservatives 20% (-2)
    Reform 12% (+2)
    Plaid Cymru 11% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 4% (-2)
    Green 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (+1)

    Changes +/- 10-11 December


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1752376128608837741

    The DRAKE’s genius 20mph power play bearing fruit.

    You have to hand it to him.

    Can't overtake the Drake.
    Drakeford has tanked in the polls since the 20mph debacle and is now - 18

    In the meantime Starmer is +1 and it is UK labour in the ascendency not Drakeford
    Drakeford is off, but Jeremy Myles soiled himself on national TV today, refusing to answer whether he had read the Piss Report.
    PISA! Like Jeremy I should have read something I didn't read!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,606
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Biden to reporters, via pool report:

    Q: Should Trump be allowed on the ballot?

    Biden: "That's fine."

    https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/1752367127841894835

    Biden should be out there demanding that Trump is on the ballot. Nothing would dent Trump's chances of winning the Republican nomination more.
    Biden - and the administration (notably the Justice Department, which would normally weigh in on such constitutional issues) - are staying neutral on the issue.
    It’s a question of constitutional law, and not for the president to ‘demand’.
    Biden could say he will stand down if Trump isn’t on the ballot. ;)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    I am sadly having to drink some ledt over red wine.

    Can't say I'm enjoying it.

  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,930

    Andy_JS said:

    "UK considering recognising Palestine state, Lord Cameron says"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68137220

    Oh!!! Something major afoot? There has been talk of a deal involving Quatar??
    If you can get an agreement with the DUP, dealing with Hamas and Likud should be easy.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    malcolmg said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Bored again

    BUT TODAY I AM ALLOWED TO DRINK

    hahahah

    But what if you choose not to ?
    I would literally expire from the tedium

    Tomorrow another dry day. And so it goes

    Getting an AWFUL lot of work done, tho
    I haven't had a drink for 18 months. It does make life very boring. But you sleep better.
    Think I would rather have a bit less sleep now and again.
    Despite being a good sleeper all my life I recently found it harder and harder to get to sleep at night. Solution turned out to be simple: no caffeine after about 4pm asleep within minutes of hitting the sack now.
    When I went to A & E at 2.00am on the 9th January with chest pains I was sent home by the doctor and consultant, after extensive tests, to rest and not to drink coffee pending my operation, which says how much a stimulant it is
    Indeed. When I was drinking a lot of coffee (6+ large Americanos a day) I started to get a lot of palpitations. I now limit myself to two coffees in the morning, bought a bean to cup coffee machine, buy quality beans, and I really enjoy those two cups.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    malcolmg said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Bored again

    BUT TODAY I AM ALLOWED TO DRINK

    hahahah

    But what if you choose not to ?
    I would literally expire from the tedium

    Tomorrow another dry day. And so it goes

    Getting an AWFUL lot of work done, tho
    I haven't had a drink for 18 months. It does make life very boring. But you sleep better.
    Think I would rather have a bit less sleep now and again.
    Despite being a good sleeper all my life I recently found it harder and harder to get to sleep at night. Solution turned out to be simple: no caffeine after about 4pm asleep within minutes of hitting the sack now.
    I've found that it's okay to have caffeine after 4pm as long as I follow it with a bottle of red. Sleep like a baby.
    Yes that does work. But like a baby I then wake up at 4am.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,242

    Taz said:

    Interesting from the Iranian regime. The US doesn’t want conflict, neither do they. Make of that what you will.

    I’d expect, based on this, the US are going to strike against Iranian proxies not based in Iran.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1752369048396898442?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ

    If the Iranians don't want conflict they have a funny way of going about it. I suggest what they don't want is retaliation.
    Assuming the Iranian government is a monolith is a mistake. The IRG has been known to go off piste when then feel like it, for one.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,606

    Andy_JS said:

    "UK considering recognising Palestine state, Lord Cameron says"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68137220

    Oh!!! Something major afoot? There has been talk of a deal involving Quatar??
    If you can get an agreement with the DUP, dealing with Hamas and Likud should be easy.
    Appoint Theresa May as a UN special envoy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067

    ICYMI from 10 days ago, veteran Conservative columnist Simon Heffer is interviewed:-

    Idiotic Tory MPs lack intelligence, ideology and purpose
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLG6xjfOZ-Q

    Is he right that Boris's Cabinet was the worst in history? He does think Rishi might turn it round btw.

    Thanks. Heffer was interesting. But who was the young buck doing the interview? (He seemed as admiring of Hitler and Enoch Powell as he was critical of the Biden White House.)
    “David Cameron had this thing called the A-list, where he just put people on for tokenistic reasons; there weren't enough people of colour, there weren't enough women and obviously there weren't enough idiots, because he put quite a lot of those onto the candidates list as well.”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLG6xjfOZ-Q
    I thought the Tories were proud of their diversity ?

    Though Priti Patel and Liz Truss were A listers…
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    I am sadly having to drink some ledt over red wine.

    Can't say I'm enjoying it.

    ??
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,628
    edited January 30

    Lots of Welsh polling here.

    Labour lead the Conservatives by 28% in Wales, a new high.

    Wales Westminster VI (24-26 January):

    Labour 48% (+1)
    Conservatives 20% (-2)
    Reform 12% (+2)
    Plaid Cymru 11% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 4% (-2)
    Green 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (+1)

    Changes +/- 10-11 December


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1752376128608837741

    Another shocker for the LibDems...
    This down to the return of Dave, lest we forget he is the Lib Dem slayer.

    When he became Tory leader the Lib Dems had 62 MPs, when he retired the Lib Dems had 8 MPs.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,567
    Taz said:

    We were discussing Deepti Gurdasani, zero covid and diet safe earlier.

    This popped up on my twitter feed.

    I guess she’s consistent.

    https://x.com/dgurdasani1/status/1747431291434467821?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ

    An issue with such a red line is Iran directly hitting other countries, such as that famous non-Islamic state, Pakistan...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,606
    Nikki Haley has a touch of the Keir Starmers:

    https://x.com/ramble_rants/status/1748008542139715983
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,372
    J

    Taz said:

    Interesting from the Iranian regime. The US doesn’t want conflict, neither do they. Make of that what you will.

    I’d expect, based on this, the US are going to strike against Iranian proxies not based in Iran.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1752369048396898442?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ

    If the Iranians don't want conflict they have a funny way of going about it. I suggest what they don't want is retaliation.
    Neither side wants conflict. Both sides flirt with it.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/03/asia/soleimani-profile-intl-hnk/index.html
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,372
    edited January 30

    Taz said:

    We were discussing Deepti Gurdasani, zero covid and diet safe earlier.

    This popped up on my twitter feed.

    I guess she’s consistent.

    https://x.com/dgurdasani1/status/1747431291434467821?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ

    An issue with such a red line is Iran directly hitting other countries, such as that famous non-Islamic state, Pakistan...
    Deepti Gurdasani is a zero covid crank. Nothing to do with Iran.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit gave this 'relationship' as an example of unfair bias against Trump, this morning.

    E Jean Carroll’s lawyer has reserved the right to file rule 11 SANCTIONS against Alina Habba for fabricating a conflict of interest between the judge and Carroll’s lawyer. 1/

    Habba alleged Roberta Kaplan and Judge Kaplan had a mentor-mentee relationship at a law firm they both worked for, and that the judge failed to disclose it. Problem is, it was over 30 years ago, at a massive firm, and the two never crossed paths.

    https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1752376607057285468

    A quiet reminder that three of the current Supreme Court Judges were Republican activists working the Gore/Bush Florida ballot dispute.

    Some of their fellow activists at the time have appeared before the court in arguments. No Republican has ever raised that as an issue.

    No he didn’t. He made no comment whatsoever about this ‘relationship’.
    Apologies.
    You just called it nakedly partisan, and I conflated that with a separate argument.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067

    Nikki Haley has a touch of the Keir Starmers:

    https://x.com/ramble_rants/status/1748008542139715983

    That’s deeply unfair,



    She’s ten points behind in the polls, not twenty in front.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    I have to say that was a magnificent speech by Clarke. No notes, logically coherent and unbiased. Hardly that reassuring for the left though since he basically endorses the idea of sending people to a third country if only in principle.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris Smyth
    @Smyth_Chris

    One in nine children now has a disability after a post-pandemic surge driven by mental health conditions such as ADHD

    Analysis of DWP figures show some really striking trends 1/

    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1751985359997550953

    I think my son is the only boy in his year who is not on ADHD medication. Sadly, though, this is not a new thing. Doctors in the US are incredibly free with Adderell, Ritalin and the like.
    Most of them probably shouldn't be on medication.
    In the U.K., the medication(s) for ADHD are very strictly controlled and is prescribed after a formal diagnosis by a specialist...
    ...so the rich get them on demand even when unnecessary, the middle class get it when necessary after a fight, and the poor get what they're given.

    Cynical? Moi

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549

    I have to say that was a magnificent speech by Clarke. No notes, logically coherent and unbiased. Hardly that reassuring for the left though since he basically endorses the idea of sending people to a third country if only in principle.

    He should have become Tory leader in 1997.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,897
    edited January 30
    Andy_JS said:

    Imran Khan sentenced to 10 years in prison.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rB6IOWHzdZg

    An example where traditional liberties are not protected by the 'Rule of Law'
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,567
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    We were discussing Deepti Gurdasani, zero covid and diet safe earlier.

    This popped up on my twitter feed.

    I guess she’s consistent.

    https://x.com/dgurdasani1/status/1747431291434467821?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ

    An issue with such a red line is Iran directly hitting other countries, such as that famous non-Islamic state, Pakistan...
    Deepti Gurdasani is a zero covid crank. Nothing to do with Iran.
    Apols, I linked to the wrong post.

    Sorry.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009

    I am sadly having to drink some ledt over red wine.

    Can't say I'm enjoying it.

    ??
    Glass now empty, thankfully. I'll tackle the rest tomorrow.

    Unfortunately there is also three quarters of a bottle of white that also needs to be finished off.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009

    Lots of Welsh polling here.

    Labour lead the Conservatives by 28% in Wales, a new high.

    Wales Westminster VI (24-26 January):

    Labour 48% (+1)
    Conservatives 20% (-2)
    Reform 12% (+2)
    Plaid Cymru 11% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 4% (-2)
    Green 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (+1)

    Changes +/- 10-11 December


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1752376128608837741

    Another shocker for the LibDems...
    This down to the return of Dave, lest we forget he is the Lib Dem slayer.

    When he became Tory leader the Lib Dems had 62 MPs, when he retired the Lib Dems had 8 MPs.
    Retired = Resigned in ignominy
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549

    ICYMI from 10 days ago, veteran Conservative columnist Simon Heffer is interviewed:-

    Idiotic Tory MPs lack intelligence, ideology and purpose
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLG6xjfOZ-Q

    Is he right that Boris's Cabinet was the worst in history? He does think Rishi might turn it round btw.

    Thanks. Heffer was interesting. But who was the young buck doing the interview? (He seemed as admiring of Hitler and Enoch Powell as he was critical of the Biden White House.)
    Hitler?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727

    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    Have we noted the long open letter from Matt Goodwin to Rishi, via the rest of the world's population, suggesting that Rishi should campaign more or less on the single issue of offering a referendum on immigration.

    I don't support this at all, and it wouldn't change my vote but it would, I think, galvanise the election.

    https://www.mattgoodwin.org/p/an-open-letter-to-rishi-sunak

    Absolutely brilliant. Let's heal the nation's wounds by having (another) referendum.

    Brenda from Bristol would not approve, Matt.
    I think he means galvanise Tory turnout.
    I doubt it would help much.

    Isn't Goodwin one of the 'wokeism is a religion' crew ? Sounds a bit of a prat.
    He's an absolute [moderated].

    Out of respect for OGH I cannot repeat what most pollsters and academics think about Matt Goodwin.


    I think like David Irving he always manages to find the most favourable analysis for his side.
    I suspect he (Goodwin) is stretching the tolerance of his employer (University of Kent) with his forays into non-academic polemics.
    I doubt they'll care if he's bringing in money and not damaging student numbers.

    The second is interesting, normally a famous academic is a student draw, but most right on leftie politics students must think he's a bellend. Would be interesting to see the political composition of politics students at Kent - might be the most right wing group of students in the country!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Chris Smyth
    @Smyth_Chris

    One in nine children now has a disability after a post-pandemic surge driven by mental health conditions such as ADHD

    Analysis of DWP figures show some really striking trends 1/

    https://twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1751985359997550953

    I think my son is the only boy in his year who is not on ADHD medication. Sadly, though, this is not a new thing. Doctors in the US are incredibly free with Adderell, Ritalin and the like.
    Most of them probably shouldn't be on medication.
    In the U.K., the medication(s) for ADHD are very strictly controlled and is prescribed after a formal diagnosis by a specialist.

    The idea that you can get them like Smarties is Daily Heil level stuff
    I was talking about the US! (Where they are handed out like smarties.)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,408
    Andy_JS said:

    I have to say that was a magnificent speech by Clarke. No notes, logically coherent and unbiased. Hardly that reassuring for the left though since he basically endorses the idea of sending people to a third country if only in principle.

    He should have become Tory leader in 1997.
    No. Too lazy and we'd probably have ended up in the Euro as a result.
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