There could be an exciting market when the next Conservative Prime Minister is appointed. Depending on the scenarios, I can see arguments for any.
* Before GE 2024 (Sunak falls before the GE) * Other 2024 (Unlikely, if Sunak wins the GE he stays as PM.) * 2026 (minority Labour Government falls early) * 2029 (one term Labour Government) * 2033-34 (two term Labour Government) * 2036-39 (scenario that resembles 2010-2024, New Labour or Thatcher) * No Tory PM before 2040 (Conservatives replaced by Right of Centre party)
Much more likely is that the Tories will remould/rebrand as a hard right movement, I am sorry to say. The trajectory is already clear.
Trajectories do not hold forever. We shouldn't confuse projection with predictions. After all, Labour was on a steadily leftwards trajectory from about 2005-19 - until it then wasn't. However, I do expect the Tories to continue rightwards on social issues (but not economic ones other than being in favour of 'cutting tax'), for the next 2-3 years at a minimum. Thereafter, who knows? A lot will turn on what Farage and Reform UK want to do, and whether Labour introduces PR (which they won't in a first term unless they seriously underperform and need the Lib Dems, but might well in a second one).
Why would Labour introduce PR? Stramer opposes it, as does much of the Labour high command and most of its grandees. Given FPP is advantageous to the party, hard to see why it would abolish it!
Labour conference supports PR; that may tell in time. There's also a belief on the left that PR would benefit the 'progressive cause'. This is pretty wishful thinking, IMO, but it *is* the thinking among many who happily add up Lab+LD+Grn as if they're all shades of the same movement, and who also dismiss the extent to which it would stress both Labour and the Tories, to the benefit of more radical movements (or perhaps not in the case of the Tories, if they fall to a Faragite reverse-takeover).
FPTP is only beneficial to Labour in the sense that it usually gives them more seats than their share 'deserves'. It's not beneficial in the sense of delivering power - only one Labour leader has won a general election in almost half a century and only two in the last three-quarters. It's given them only five workable majorities in the last twenty elections.
Labour conference supports lots of things the PLP have little interest in. Not Happening Event IMO.
There could be an exciting market when the next Conservative Prime Minister is appointed. Depending on the scenarios, I can see arguments for any.
* Before GE 2024 (Sunak falls before the GE) * Other 2024 (Unlikely, if Sunak wins the GE he stays as PM.) * 2026 (minority Labour Government falls early) * 2029 (one term Labour Government) * 2033-34 (two term Labour Government) * 2036-39 (scenario that resembles 2010-2024, New Labour or Thatcher) * No Tory PM before 2040 (Conservatives replaced by Right of Centre party)
The limitation of this market is the likely long wait to get the answer.
On topic. It’s impossible for the Government to lose tonight, because if they feel they will lose, they will delay the vote, not proceed and lose, because defeat hurts government credibility and business far more than it would hurt the rebels.
Sunak will lead the Conservatives into the general election. 100%. Not even a shred of doubt of that.
I agree and it is not only fanciful but plainly ridiculous to change the leader again - Sunak will fight the GE as PM
FPT Dolly Parton has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. How do we have so many homes where a child doesn't have a single book?
When she was head of a local primary, Mrs Capitano gave every kid an individually chosen book for Christmas. For several of them it was the only book they had at home. And this isn't even in a desperately poor area.
It is not directly money related. Children's books for all ages by the million are available for tiny sums - pence and often free - at charity shops, outside shops, school fetes and so on. As always the culture beats both strategy and cash.
There are poorer people with a plethora of books. Rich folks with none at all.
A packet of cigarettes costs more than most paperbacks these days.
Between £10 and £16 for 20. 20 Embassy at Tesco is £15.85. About 40p when I gave up. By contrast their whisky, drinkable, starts at about £14.
The cost of one of each buys you a library for all ages at a school fete/charity shop/coffee morning.
There could be an exciting market when the next Conservative Prime Minister is appointed. Depending on the scenarios, I can see arguments for any.
* Before GE 2024 (Sunak falls before the GE) * Other 2024 (Unlikely, if Sunak wins the GE he stays as PM.) * 2026 (minority Labour Government falls early) * 2029 (one term Labour Government) * 2033-34 (two term Labour Government) * 2036-39 (scenario that resembles 2010-2024, New Labour or Thatcher) * No Tory PM before 2040 (Conservatives replaced by Right of Centre party)
The limitation of this market is the likely long wait to get the answer.
A trading bet perhaps? Some people might think it just days away.
On topic. It’s impossible for the Government to lose tonight, because if they feel they will lose, they will delay the vote, not proceed and lose, because defeat hurts government credibility and business far more than it would hurt the rebels.
Sunak will lead the Conservatives into the general election. 100%. Not even a shred of doubt of that.
I agree and it is not only fanciful but plainly ridiculous to change the leader again - Sunak will fight the GE as PM
1. Sunak goes within the next 2-3 months. 2. Hunt will be PM with McVey * as his deputy with the express intention of getting the Conservatives through the GE. 3. The next long-term leader will then be decided post-GE - probably not immediately but on a 2-3 year timescale
* I say McVey because Hunt and McVey teamed up for the leadership post-Boris and the thesis is to unite the Blue and Red wall parts of the party. However, it is possible for example Badenoch would fit the pro-'Red Tory' wing.
What would Hunt bring that Sunak doesn't, other than a load more confusion and delay? I see zero benefit to the Tories for them to swap one awkward managerial bod for another. If they do dump Sunak, it'll be for someone on the populist leader in the hope of recapturing the Spirit of Boris and banishing the Spectre of Reform.
Much more likely is that the Tories will remould/rebrand as a hard right movement, I am sorry to say. The trajectory is already clear.
Trajectories do not hold forever. We shouldn't confuse projection with predictions. After all, Labour was on a steadily leftwards trajectory from about 2005-19 - until it then wasn't. However, I do expect the Tories to continue rightwards on social issues (but not economic ones other than being in favour of 'cutting tax'), for the next 2-3 years at a minimum. Thereafter, who knows? A lot will turn on what Farage and Reform UK want to do, and whether Labour introduces PR (which they won't in a first term unless they seriously underperform and need the Lib Dems, but might well in a second one).
Why would Labour introduce PR? Stramer opposes it, as does much of the Labour high command and most of its grandees. Given FPP is advantageous to the party, hard to see why it would abolish it!
Labour conference supports PR; that may tell in time. There's also a belief on the left that PR would benefit the 'progressive cause'. This is pretty wishful thinking, IMO, but it *is* the thinking among many who happily add up Lab+LD+Grn as if they're all shades of the same movement, and who also dismiss the extent to which it would stress both Labour and the Tories, to the benefit of more radical movements (or perhaps not in the case of the Tories, if they fall to a Faragite reverse-takeover).
FPTP is only beneficial to Labour in the sense that it usually gives them more seats than their share 'deserves'. It's not beneficial in the sense of delivering power - only one Labour leader has won a general election in almost half a century and only two in the last three-quarters. It's given them only five workable majorities in the last twenty elections.
PR would enable an effective Labour split. I think a lot of people on the broader left and inside Labour quite like that idea. I suspect that PR will also get a lot more popular on the right for similar reasons.
1. Sunak goes within the next 2-3 months. 2. Hunt will be PM with McVey * as his deputy with the express intention of getting the Conservatives through the GE. 3. The next long-term leader will then be decided post-GE - probably not immediately but on a 2-3 year timescale
* I say McVey because Hunt and McVey teamed up for the leadership post-Boris and the thesis is to unite the Blue and Red wall parts of the party. However, it is possible for example Badenoch would fit the pro-'Red Tory' wing.
What would Hunt bring that Sunak doesn't, other than a load more confusion and delay? I see zero benefit to the Tories for them to swap one awkward managerial bod for another. If they do dump Sunak, it'll be for someone on the populist leader in the hope of recapturing the Spirit of Boris and banishing the Spectre of Reform.
I am sure many look over the pond and think Boris is the answer. Not least Boris. Here's a scenario...
Lord Boris of Downing Street becomes Tory leader and PM, immediately calls an election and stands in a safe seat. No need for a by-election since we are so close to the the wire now.
It's important to note that in the 2020s the conventional rules of politics no longer apply.
1. Sunak goes within the next 2-3 months. 2. Hunt will be PM with McVey * as his deputy with the express intention of getting the Conservatives through the GE. 3. The next long-term leader will then be decided post-GE - probably not immediately but on a 2-3 year timescale
* I say McVey because Hunt and McVey teamed up for the leadership post-Boris and the thesis is to unite the Blue and Red wall parts of the party. However, it is possible for example Badenoch would fit the pro-'Red Tory' wing.
What would Hunt bring that Sunak doesn't, other than a load more confusion and delay? I see zero benefit to the Tories for them to swap one awkward managerial bod for another. If they do dump Sunak, it'll be for someone on the populist leader in the hope of recapturing the Spirit of Boris and banishing the Spectre of Reform.
I am sure many look over the pond and think Boris is the answer. Not least Boris. Here's a scenario...
Lord Boris of Downing Street becomes Tory leader and PM, immediately calls an election and stands in a safe seat. No need for a by-election since we are so close to the the wire now.
It's important to note that in the 2020s the conventional rules of politics no longer apply.
Can't renounce peerage, can he, anyway? So why bother with being elected a MP?
On topic. It’s impossible for the Government to lose tonight, because if they feel they will lose, they will delay the vote, not proceed and lose, because defeat hurts government credibility and business far more than it would hurt the rebels.
Sunak will lead the Conservatives into the general election. 100%. Not even a shred of doubt of that.
I agree and it is not only fanciful but plainly ridiculous to change the leader again - Sunak will fight the GE as PM
1. Sunak goes within the next 2-3 months. 2. Hunt will be PM with McVey * as his deputy with the express intention of getting the Conservatives through the GE. 3. The next long-term leader will then be decided post-GE - probably not immediately but on a 2-3 year timescale
* I say McVey because Hunt and McVey teamed up for the leadership post-Boris and the thesis is to unite the Blue and Red wall parts of the party. However, it is possible for example Badenoch would fit the pro-'Red Tory' wing.
What would Hunt bring that Sunak doesn't, other than a load more confusion and delay? I see zero benefit to the Tories for them to swap one awkward managerial bod for another. If they do dump Sunak, it'll be for someone on the populist leader in the hope of recapturing the Spirit of Boris and banishing the Spectre of Reform.
I am sure many look over the pond and think Boris is the answer. Not least Boris. Here's a scenario...
Lord Boris of Downing Street becomes Tory leader and PM, immediately calls an election and stands in a safe seat. No need for a by-election since we are so close to the the wire now.
It's important to note that in the 2020s the conventional rules of politics no longer apply.
Why would he need a peerage at all then?
But more relevantly, how does he become leader when the Conservative constitution bans non-MPs from being candidates? This isn't simply a matter of convention; is written in the rules and any attempt to ignore the rule would no doubt be challenged by those opposed to his return.
@BenQuinn75 💥 NEW: Rwanda’s president Paul Kagame warns there are limits to how long attempts to implement the deportation deal with Britain can 'drag on’
.. adds that that he would be happy for the scheme to be scrapped entirely.
FPT Dolly Parton has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. How do we have so many homes where a child doesn't have a single book?
When she was head of a local primary, Mrs Capitano gave every kid an individually chosen book for Christmas. For several of them it was the only book they had at home. And this isn't even in a desperately poor area.
I saw an article the other day that comprehension and retention is much better with physical books than with articles read on screen.
I read it on screen (maybe The Atlantic?) so inevitably can't recall where...
A couple of years ago I went on holiday for a week, switched off the phone and the iPad completely, bringing a couple of books to read on the beach.
I can still remember much of the contents of those books, in a way that I wouldn’t have remembered reading a few thousand words on the usual device.
Proper books all the way for me. I don't own a tablet and wouldn't know how to read a book on it even if I wanted to. Lovely to have shelves filled with books, like a room full of old friends!
Much more likely is that the Tories will remould/rebrand as a hard right movement, I am sorry to say. The trajectory is already clear.
Trajectories do not hold forever. We shouldn't confuse projection with predictions. After all, Labour was on a steadily leftwards trajectory from about 2005-19 - until it then wasn't. However, I do expect the Tories to continue rightwards on social issues (but not economic ones other than being in favour of 'cutting tax'), for the next 2-3 years at a minimum. Thereafter, who knows? A lot will turn on what Farage and Reform UK want to do, and whether Labour introduces PR (which they won't in a first term unless they seriously underperform and need the Lib Dems, but might well in a second one).
Why would Labour introduce PR? Stramer opposes it, as does much of the Labour high command and most of its grandees. Given FPP is advantageous to the party, hard to see why it would abolish it!
Labour conference supports PR; that may tell in time. There's also a belief on the left that PR would benefit the 'progressive cause'. This is pretty wishful thinking, IMO, but it *is* the thinking among many who happily add up Lab+LD+Grn as if they're all shades of the same movement, and who also dismiss the extent to which it would stress both Labour and the Tories, to the benefit of more radical movements (or perhaps not in the case of the Tories, if they fall to a Faragite reverse-takeover).
FPTP is only beneficial to Labour in the sense that it usually gives them more seats than their share 'deserves'. It's not beneficial in the sense of delivering power - only one Labour leader has won a general election in almost half a century and only two in the last three-quarters. It's given them only five workable majorities in the last twenty elections.
Labour conference supports lots of things the PLP have little interest in. Not Happening Event IMO.
Consider ordinary, not wicked, self interest. If you are currently an MP of any party there is only one change which is in your rational interest, and that is a change which has two elements: The first is that it increases the likelihood of you personally winning next time in demographic terms, and secondly - and critically - guarantees that you and not someone else will be the candidate.
So in almost every case any change at all is against the interest of virtually all MPs. Bet accordingly.
1. Sunak goes within the next 2-3 months. 2. Hunt will be PM with McVey * as his deputy with the express intention of getting the Conservatives through the GE. 3. The next long-term leader will then be decided post-GE - probably not immediately but on a 2-3 year timescale
* I say McVey because Hunt and McVey teamed up for the leadership post-Boris and the thesis is to unite the Blue and Red wall parts of the party. However, it is possible for example Badenoch would fit the pro-'Red Tory' wing.
What would Hunt bring that Sunak doesn't, other than a load more confusion and delay? I see zero benefit to the Tories for them to swap one awkward managerial bod for another. If they do dump Sunak, it'll be for someone on the populist leader in the hope of recapturing the Spirit of Boris and banishing the Spectre of Reform.
A few things:
1. He is a prominent Remainer (which is why he knows he would need a Leaver as Deputy) and would be better positioned to ward off the LD threat in the Blue Wall seats.
2. He has a reasonably competent / decent track record and one that - crucially, unlike Rishi - has been long. He therefore is probably better suited (and I would imagine is not exactly Mr Charisma but less awkward than Sunak).
3. It is not just Hunt alone that is key but the combination, someone who Blue Wall / Remainer Tories would back and one who, Red Wall / Leavers would back.
Hard to see Tory MPs and members electing the effective leader of the Remain campaign in 2016 if Sunak loses the next GE. Most likely they would pick a Leaver from the Right
I think this is right, and a Cam coronation would be enormously divisive within the party. It should also be recalled that he is viewed generally very unfavourably and of course brings a lot of baggage.
The populists will likely find themselves in the ascendancy when we next have a Con leadership election, though frankly a lot will depend on who does and does not retain their seat. A fair few of the gobbier populists are likely to be booted.
For me Braverman is probably the most likely winner, not least because Fareham is as safe as they come. Badenoch is also safe, but I suspect becoming tainted as a Sunakite.
Robert Jenrick looks value to me as well - 100/1 at Hill’s!
The Tories have been around for a long time, but it's certainly not impossible to go from winning an election to being the third party in a short space of time. 16 years for the Liberals, a century ago.
I'm sure there are going to be some huge challenges in the next 5-10 years. I wonder how well the party that is currently staking everything on the Rwanda gimmick will respond to those challenges.
Boris is done. He no doubt retains some support in pockets of the country, but he does not have Trump’s power over his party or a significant chunk of the electorate, for the very reason that the event that caused him to swiftly lose popularity was the lockdown parties, and most people, left or right, were livid at that. It wasn’t a “brave hero Boris brought down by the MSM/the deep state” narrative, certainly not among meaningful segments of the electorate.
1. Sunak goes within the next 2-3 months. 2. Hunt will be PM with McVey * as his deputy with the express intention of getting the Conservatives through the GE. 3. The next long-term leader will then be decided post-GE - probably not immediately but on a 2-3 year timescale
* I say McVey because Hunt and McVey teamed up for the leadership post-Boris and the thesis is to unite the Blue and Red wall parts of the party. However, it is possible for example Badenoch would fit the pro-'Red Tory' wing.
PB seems much enamoured of the idea of caretaker leaders than they actually occur in real life. The strategy you propose is tantamount to admitting defeat at the general election. The party has to at least pretend that they have a plan for the future.
Do you not think most Tories believe they are now heading for a defeat and therefore are now looking at limiting the downside?
1. Sunak goes within the next 2-3 months. 2. Hunt will be PM with McVey * as his deputy with the express intention of getting the Conservatives through the GE. 3. The next long-term leader will then be decided post-GE - probably not immediately but on a 2-3 year timescale
* I say McVey because Hunt and McVey teamed up for the leadership post-Boris and the thesis is to unite the Blue and Red wall parts of the party. However, it is possible for example Badenoch would fit the pro-'Red Tory' wing.
What would Hunt bring that Sunak doesn't, other than a load more confusion and delay? I see zero benefit to the Tories for them to swap one awkward managerial bod for another. If they do dump Sunak, it'll be for someone on the populist leader in the hope of recapturing the Spirit of Boris and banishing the Spectre of Reform.
I am sure many look over the pond and think Boris is the answer. Not least Boris. Here's a scenario...
Lord Boris of Downing Street becomes Tory leader and PM, immediately calls an election and stands in a safe seat. No need for a by-election since we are so close to the the wire now.
It's important to note that in the 2020s the conventional rules of politics no longer apply.
Why would he need a peerage at all then?
But more relevantly, how does he become leader when the Conservative constitution bans non-MPs from being candidates? This isn't simply a matter of convention; is written in the rules and any attempt to ignore the rule would no doubt be challenged by those opposed to his return.
I agree this is far fetched, but there is no such thing as a rule which cannot be changed. Internal Tory rules, as being those of a registered political party, may be governed by statute to some extent (no idea) but all rules/laws have procedures for changing them lawfully.
1. Sunak goes within the next 2-3 months. 2. Hunt will be PM with McVey * as his deputy with the express intention of getting the Conservatives through the GE. 3. The next long-term leader will then be decided post-GE - probably not immediately but on a 2-3 year timescale
* I say McVey because Hunt and McVey teamed up for the leadership post-Boris and the thesis is to unite the Blue and Red wall parts of the party. However, it is possible for example Badenoch would fit the pro-'Red Tory' wing.
What would Hunt bring that Sunak doesn't, other than a load more confusion and delay? I see zero benefit to the Tories for them to swap one awkward managerial bod for another. If they do dump Sunak, it'll be for someone on the populist leader in the hope of recapturing the Spirit of Boris and banishing the Spectre of Reform.
I am sure many look over the pond and think Boris is the answer. Not least Boris. Here's a scenario...
Lord Boris of Downing Street becomes Tory leader and PM, immediately calls an election and stands in a safe seat. No need for a by-election since we are so close to the the wire now.
It's important to note that in the 2020s the conventional rules of politics no longer apply.
On topic. It’s impossible for the Government to lose tonight, because if they feel they will lose, they will delay the vote, not proceed and lose, because defeat hurts government credibility and business far more than it would hurt the rebels.
Sunak will lead the Conservatives into the general election. 100%. Not even a shred of doubt of that.
LOL. The whipping operation has been far from good this whole parliament. I suspect partly institutional - how many Tory MPs were elected in the 1987 parliament, the last with a decent majority? Probably in the tens. Have any of these been involved in the whips office? Not that I know of.
Accidental loss is far more likely than this comment credits.
FPT Dolly Parton has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. How do we have so many homes where a child doesn't have a single book?
When she was head of a local primary, Mrs Capitano gave every kid an individually chosen book for Christmas. For several of them it was the only book they had at home. And this isn't even in a desperately poor area.
I saw an article the other day that comprehension and retention is much better with physical books than with articles read on screen.
I read it on screen (maybe The Atlantic?) so inevitably can't recall where...
A couple of years ago I went on holiday for a week, switched off the phone and the iPad completely, bringing a couple of books to read on the beach.
I can still remember much of the contents of those books, in a way that I wouldn’t have remembered reading a few thousand words on the usual device.
Proper books all the way for me. I don't own a tablet and wouldn't know how to read a book on it even if I wanted to. Lovely to have shelves filled with books, like a room full of old friends!
@BenQuinn75 💥 NEW: Rwanda’s president Paul Kagame warns there are limits to how long attempts to implement the deportation deal with Britain can 'drag on’
.. adds that that he would be happy for the scheme to be scrapped entirely.
Kagame as an Arsenal fan, he will need to show much more patience than this in wait for a trophy 🤭
1. Sunak goes within the next 2-3 months. 2. Hunt will be PM with McVey * as his deputy with the express intention of getting the Conservatives through the GE. 3. The next long-term leader will then be decided post-GE - probably not immediately but on a 2-3 year timescale
* I say McVey because Hunt and McVey teamed up for the leadership post-Boris and the thesis is to unite the Blue and Red wall parts of the party. However, it is possible for example Badenoch would fit the pro-'Red Tory' wing.
What would Hunt bring that Sunak doesn't, other than a load more confusion and delay? I see zero benefit to the Tories for them to swap one awkward managerial bod for another. If they do dump Sunak, it'll be for someone on the populist leader in the hope of recapturing the Spirit of Boris and banishing the Spectre of Reform.
I am sure many look over the pond and think Boris is the answer. Not least Boris. Here's a scenario...
Lord Boris of Downing Street becomes Tory leader and PM, immediately calls an election and stands in a safe seat. No need for a by-election since we are so close to the the wire now.
It's important to note that in the 2020s the conventional rules of politics no longer apply.
Why would he need a peerage at all then?
But more relevantly, how does he become leader when the Conservative constitution bans non-MPs from being candidates? This isn't simply a matter of convention; is written in the rules and any attempt to ignore the rule would no doubt be challenged by those opposed to his return.
I am sure that the Tories can find a way if they want to. They are pretty good at bending the rules anyway and Boris (and his supporters) have zero shame.
1. Sunak goes within the next 2-3 months. 2. Hunt will be PM with McVey * as his deputy with the express intention of getting the Conservatives through the GE. 3. The next long-term leader will then be decided post-GE - probably not immediately but on a 2-3 year timescale
* I say McVey because Hunt and McVey teamed up for the leadership post-Boris and the thesis is to unite the Blue and Red wall parts of the party. However, it is possible for example Badenoch would fit the pro-'Red Tory' wing.
PB seems much enamoured of the idea of caretaker leaders than they actually occur in real life. The strategy you propose is tantamount to admitting defeat at the general election. The party has to at least pretend that they have a plan for the future.
Do you not think most Tories believe they are now heading for a defeat and therefore are now looking at limiting the downside?
I agree that most Tories believe they are now heading for a defeat, but the way to limit the downside is not to go into the election saying, “we’re sure to lose”.
I suspect that good old-fashioned Tories need to see what has happened in their own party, what happened in France, and what is happening in the US and realise that traditional right-of-centre, conservative politics is doomed for the time being.
I know most know of my health issues since October which will see me having a pacemaker on 6th February but now to add to my family's worries my son in law is in A & E resus with serious breathing issues and my daughter and granddaughter at his bedside
I'm 100% certain now that Keir Starmer will be PM after the next election, because even a lot of Tories have had enough of the party after 14 years. But it could still be difficult for Lab to win a working majority for various reasons, one of which is the new boundaries.
The assumption that the Tories will benefit from the boundary changes is weakened by the scaleof apparent change in voting intention since the last election.
The only thing that can help the Tories in many seats will be a split opposition.
The tactical voting battles will be more complex with boundary changes. It’ll be harder for voters to work out who the main challenger is in many cases.
Given the importance of incumbency and past second places to the Lib Dems you’d think this will probably hinder their chances. The one counter to this being that in areas where Labour were second in the old seats last time but with no record on the new one, and Lib Dems are strong on the local council in those wards, tgis potentially helps with the bar charts.
That is where I think Carol Vorderman comes in - I think her telling people who to vote for will ensure a fair few votes end up going in the direction she suggests.
Really, apart from a few on twitter/social media who hang on her every word and were not likely to vote Tory anyway, will it really make a difference. She needs to influence people who are not receptive to her message and she comes over as somewhat unhinged in her posts.
I cannot see it.
She may come over as unhinged, but that isn't necessarily a problem, as large parts of the electorate are as unhinged. It is a matter of directing their anger at the real elite rather than some made up confection.
"... as large parts of the electorate are as unhinged. "
This sort of comment amuses me. The person who says it always, of course, puts themselves on the 'unhinged' side.
Incoherent rage is a common political feeling at present, and many have political views that don't fit neatly into boxes, including me. Eclectic might be a polite term for it. An interesting article here:
Well worth a read. That's one of the best, most concise summaries of the complexities of current political views that I've seen. It also points to how hard it is these days to predict individuals', let along groups', voting behaviour. Superb.
On topic. It’s impossible for the Government to lose tonight, because if they feel they will lose, they will delay the vote, not proceed and lose, because defeat hurts government credibility and business far more than it would hurt the rebels.
Sunak will lead the Conservatives into the general election. 100%. Not even a shred of doubt of that.
I agree and it is not only fanciful but plainly ridiculous to change the leader again - Sunak will fight the GE as PM
People said that with Truss.
But Sunak has no plan to trash the economy.
Today’s inflation rise is being attributed to inherent vice in Sunak’s plan to ban cigarettes. That’s the thing with Sunak - you may say he had no plan to do such and such, but such and such seems to happen.
The truth is, as the history books will state, Sunak’s record is the man that borrowed to record levels, the man that taxed to historically high levels, the man that handed billions away to fraudsters, lost billions through incompetence, and presided over fast lane sleaze.
I know most know of my health issues since October which will see me having a pacemaker on 6th February but now to add to my family's worries my son in law is in A & E resus with serious breathing issues and my daughter and granddaughter at his bedside
It never rains but it pours
Blimey, sorry to hear this BigG. All the best to your son in law.
I know most know of my health issues since October which will see me having a pacemaker on 6th February but now to add to my family's worries my son in law is in A & E resus with serious breathing issues and my daughter and granddaughter at his bedside
It never rains but it pours
I'm sorry to hear that, sending love to you and your family and the successful resolution of these health problems.
On topic. It’s impossible for the Government to lose tonight, because if they feel they will lose, they will delay the vote, not proceed and lose, because defeat hurts government credibility and business far more than it would hurt the rebels.
Sunak will lead the Conservatives into the general election. 100%. Not even a shred of doubt of that.
I agree and it is not only fanciful but plainly ridiculous to change the leader again - Sunak will fight the GE as PM
You got any snow yet down there in North Wales Big G?
I suspect that good old-fashioned Tories need to see what has happened in their own party, what happened in France, and what is happening in the US and realise that traditional right-of-centre, conservative politics is doomed for the time being.
Macron (for example) doesn't seem doomed. The issue is more about a suitable successor.
The biggest problem is understanding the difference between the question and the answer.
The "Populists" have a number of grievances. Which actually exist. Their answers are rubbish. But that isn't the fault of the questions.
If you want to win, come up with an answer to those question that works better. Rather than denying the question.
@BenQuinn75 💥 NEW: Rwanda’s president Paul Kagame warns there are limits to how long attempts to implement the deportation deal with Britain can 'drag on’
.. adds that that he would be happy for the scheme to be scrapped entirely.
We are now at the point where Rwanda is worried that its association with the UK will damage its international standing.
I know most know of my health issues since October which will see me having a pacemaker on 6th February but now to add to my family's worries my son in law is in A & E resus with serious breathing issues and my daughter and granddaughter at his bedside
It never rains but it pours
I'm sorry to hear that, sending love to you and your family and the successful resolution of these health problems.
1. Sunak goes within the next 2-3 months. 2. Hunt will be PM with McVey * as his deputy with the express intention of getting the Conservatives through the GE. 3. The next long-term leader will then be decided post-GE - probably not immediately but on a 2-3 year timescale
* I say McVey because Hunt and McVey teamed up for the leadership post-Boris and the thesis is to unite the Blue and Red wall parts of the party. However, it is possible for example Badenoch would fit the pro-'Red Tory' wing.
What would Hunt bring that Sunak doesn't, other than a load more confusion and delay? I see zero benefit to the Tories for them to swap one awkward managerial bod for another. If they do dump Sunak, it'll be for someone on the populist leader in the hope of recapturing the Spirit of Boris and banishing the Spectre of Reform.
I am sure many look over the pond and think Boris is the answer. Not least Boris. Here's a scenario...
Lord Boris of Downing Street becomes Tory leader and PM, immediately calls an election and stands in a safe seat. No need for a by-election since we are so close to the the wire now.
It's important to note that in the 2020s the conventional rules of politics no longer apply.
Why would he need a peerage at all then?
But more relevantly, how does he become leader when the Conservative constitution bans non-MPs from being candidates? This isn't simply a matter of convention; is written in the rules and any attempt to ignore the rule would no doubt be challenged by those opposed to his return.
I am sure that the Tories can find a way if they want to. They are pretty good at bending the rules anyway and Boris (and his supporters) have zero shame.
Well if the rules say "member of Parliament" rather than "member of the House of Commons" then that can be interpreted two ways. Members of the House of Lords are of course members of Parliament.
I suspect that good old-fashioned Tories need to see what has happened in their own party, what happened in France, and what is happening in the US and realise that traditional right-of-centre, conservative politics is doomed for the time being.
Macron (for example) doesn't seem doomed. The issue is more about a suitable successor.
The biggest problem is understanding the difference between the question and the answer.
The "Populists" have a number of grievances. Which actually exist. Their answers are rubbish. But that isn't the fault of the questions.
If you want to win, come up with an answer to those question that works better. Rather than denying the question.
Macron killed the French Tories and Labour, with a clever blend of pure centrist politics.
On topic. It’s impossible for the Government to lose tonight, because if they feel they will lose, they will delay the vote, not proceed and lose, because defeat hurts government credibility and business far more than it would hurt the rebels.
Sunak will lead the Conservatives into the general election. 100%. Not even a shred of doubt of that.
I agree and it is not only fanciful but plainly ridiculous to change the leader again - Sunak will fight the GE as PM
You got any snow yet down there in North Wales Big G?
We had some overnight the night before last but it soon cleared
Unlike the mountains a few miles away, we tend to avoid snow being on the coast. Indeed in our case we live within 400 yards of the shoreline
@BenQuinn75 💥 NEW: Rwanda’s president Paul Kagame warns there are limits to how long attempts to implement the deportation deal with Britain can 'drag on’
.. adds that that he would be happy for the scheme to be scrapped entirely.
We are now at the point where Rwanda is worried that its association with the UK will damage its international standing.
Are we getting to the point where Kagame will want to help the next PM rather than the outgoing? If he said " nah, this plan is dead", it would be helpful to Starmer.
On topic. It’s impossible for the Government to lose tonight, because if they feel they will lose, they will delay the vote, not proceed and lose, because defeat hurts government credibility and business far more than it would hurt the rebels.
Sunak will lead the Conservatives into the general election. 100%. Not even a shred of doubt of that.
LOL. The whipping operation has been far from good this whole parliament. I suspect partly institutional - how many Tory MPs were elected in the 1987 parliament, the last with a decent majority? Probably in the tens. Have any of these been involved in the whips office? Not that I know of.
Accidental loss is far more likely than this comment credits.
Let’s hope so! Because it would be flipping funny 🙂
FPT Dolly Parton has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. How do we have so many homes where a child doesn't have a single book?
Another Conservative success, Mr Mark. The Cummings-Gove reforms of education were particularly keen on not teaching children to read and even more, not to think.
This was quite stark when we recently toured primary schools for our eldest.
The most organised school proudly showed us that they sent kids home with two books each week: ‘here’s one on phonics, and here’s one they might actually want to read’. I paraphrase, but not by much.
To be fair, I actually think the teaching of phonics is great, if done well. But it very clearly misses important aspects of kids early experiences of reading.
1. Sunak goes within the next 2-3 months. 2. Hunt will be PM with McVey * as his deputy with the express intention of getting the Conservatives through the GE. 3. The next long-term leader will then be decided post-GE - probably not immediately but on a 2-3 year timescale
* I say McVey because Hunt and McVey teamed up for the leadership post-Boris and the thesis is to unite the Blue and Red wall parts of the party. However, it is possible for example Badenoch would fit the pro-'Red Tory' wing.
What would Hunt bring that Sunak doesn't, other than a load more confusion and delay? I see zero benefit to the Tories for them to swap one awkward managerial bod for another. If they do dump Sunak, it'll be for someone on the populist leader in the hope of recapturing the Spirit of Boris and banishing the Spectre of Reform.
I am sure many look over the pond and think Boris is the answer. Not least Boris. Here's a scenario...
Lord Boris of Downing Street becomes Tory leader and PM, immediately calls an election and stands in a safe seat. No need for a by-election since we are so close to the the wire now.
It's important to note that in the 2020s the conventional rules of politics no longer apply.
Why would he need a peerage at all then?
But more relevantly, how does he become leader when the Conservative constitution bans non-MPs from being candidates? This isn't simply a matter of convention; is written in the rules and any attempt to ignore the rule would no doubt be challenged by those opposed to his return.
I am sure that the Tories can find a way if they want to. They are pretty good at bending the rules anyway and Boris (and his supporters) have zero shame.
They'd need to change the constitution to make it bullet-proof, which is all-but impossible in the timeframe, particularly while Sunak is leader.
Without that, any attempt to insert a non-MP onto the ballot would be vulnerable to a legal challenge (ironic given the Tories' aversion to that kind of thing but consistency rarely overrides interest with this current lot).
Much more likely is that the Tories will remould/rebrand as a hard right movement, I am sorry to say. The trajectory is already clear.
Trajectories do not hold forever. We shouldn't confuse projection with predictions. After all, Labour was on a steadily leftwards trajectory from about 2005-19 - until it then wasn't. However, I do expect the Tories to continue rightwards on social issues (but not economic ones other than being in favour of 'cutting tax'), for the next 2-3 years at a minimum. Thereafter, who knows? A lot will turn on what Farage and Reform UK want to do, and whether Labour introduces PR (which they won't in a first term unless they seriously underperform and need the Lib Dems, but might well in a second one).
Why would Labour introduce PR? Stramer opposes it, as does much of the Labour high command and most of its grandees. Given FPP is advantageous to the party, hard to see why it would abolish it!
Labour conference supports PR; that may tell in time. There's also a belief on the left that PR would benefit the 'progressive cause'. This is pretty wishful thinking, IMO, but it *is* the thinking among many who happily add up Lab+LD+Grn as if they're all shades of the same movement, and who also dismiss the extent to which it would stress both Labour and the Tories, to the benefit of more radical movements (or perhaps not in the case of the Tories, if they fall to a Faragite reverse-takeover).
FPTP is only beneficial to Labour in the sense that it usually gives them more seats than their share 'deserves'. It's not beneficial in the sense of delivering power - only one Labour leader has won a general election in almost half a century and only two in the last three-quarters. It's given them only five workable majorities in the last twenty elections.
Labour conference supports lots of things the PLP have little interest in. Not Happening Event IMO.
It could be a Happening Event if Labour loses its majority, which is quite possible in a 2028/9 election.
Since COVID, split-ticketing has taken off thanks to Trainline et al doing the hard work for customers. Yesterday's announcement by LNER on the pilot scheme which sees off-peak and super off-peak fares between London, Newcastle, Berwick and Edinburgh scrapped is likely to see lots of this kind of thing:
If you are unsure if you want to travel at around 1800 or 1900 on this journey (London-Newcastle on Sat 17 Feb), LNER will only sell you an Anytime fare, at £192.80.
Yes that is the only fare with any degree of flexibility on that Saturday.
Easily solved by booking from Manors (one stop north of Newcastle) to London, a flexible & refundable Super Off-Peak costs £83.20 and can be used between Newcastle & London.
On topic. It’s impossible for the Government to lose tonight, because if they feel they will lose, they will delay the vote, not proceed and lose, because defeat hurts government credibility and business far more than it would hurt the rebels.
Sunak will lead the Conservatives into the general election. 100%. Not even a shred of doubt of that.
I agree and it is not only fanciful but plainly ridiculous to change the leader again - Sunak will fight the GE as PM
People said that with Truss.
But Sunak has no plan to trash the economy.
Today’s inflation rise is being attributed to inherent vice in Sunak’s plan to ban cigarettes. That’s the thing with Sunak - you may say he had no plan to do such and such, but such and such seems to happen.
The truth is, as the history books will state, Sunak’s record is the man that borrowed to record levels, the man that taxed to historically high levels, the man that handed billions away to fraudsters, lost billions through incompetence, and presided over fast lane sleaze.
Will the history books also state that he was regarded as a considerable improvement on his predecessors?
1. Sunak goes within the next 2-3 months. 2. Hunt will be PM with McVey * as his deputy with the express intention of getting the Conservatives through the GE. 3. The next long-term leader will then be decided post-GE - probably not immediately but on a 2-3 year timescale
* I say McVey because Hunt and McVey teamed up for the leadership post-Boris and the thesis is to unite the Blue and Red wall parts of the party. However, it is possible for example Badenoch would fit the pro-'Red Tory' wing.
I find the suggestion of Hunt bizarre. He is if anything less popular with the Tory Party members and the wider public than Sunak. He's also got precisely nowhere with the PCP when he's tried for leadership (twice now?), which doesn't suggest a great base there either. If the PCP is going to defenstrate Sunak with all the risk and ridicule it will incur, there is absolutely zero point in putting his right-hand man in his place. Badenoch is a far likelier suggestion. I hope it's not Badenoch, because I have found her in practise to be a let down, but it's more conceivable than Hunt.
1. Sunak goes within the next 2-3 months. 2. Hunt will be PM with McVey * as his deputy with the express intention of getting the Conservatives through the GE. 3. The next long-term leader will then be decided post-GE - probably not immediately but on a 2-3 year timescale
* I say McVey because Hunt and McVey teamed up for the leadership post-Boris and the thesis is to unite the Blue and Red wall parts of the party. However, it is possible for example Badenoch would fit the pro-'Red Tory' wing.
What would Hunt bring that Sunak doesn't, other than a load more confusion and delay? I see zero benefit to the Tories for them to swap one awkward managerial bod for another. If they do dump Sunak, it'll be for someone on the populist leader in the hope of recapturing the Spirit of Boris and banishing the Spectre of Reform.
I am sure many look over the pond and think Boris is the answer. Not least Boris. Here's a scenario...
Lord Boris of Downing Street becomes Tory leader and PM, immediately calls an election and stands in a safe seat. No need for a by-election since we are so close to the the wire now.
It's important to note that in the 2020s the conventional rules of politics no longer apply.
Why would he need a peerage at all then?
But more relevantly, how does he become leader when the Conservative constitution bans non-MPs from being candidates? This isn't simply a matter of convention; is written in the rules and any attempt to ignore the rule would no doubt be challenged by those opposed to his return.
I agree this is far fetched, but there is no such thing as a rule which cannot be changed. Internal Tory rules, as being those of a registered political party, may be governed by statute to some extent (no idea) but all rules/laws have procedures for changing them lawfully.
Indeed. And the rules for changing the Tory constitution are particularly convoluted and impose a high threshold. To get that done *before* any leadership election in the next "2-3 months" - or even the next 5 months, to take it to after the local elections - is all but impossible. Particularly as Sunak has every reason to oppose the change.
On topic. It’s impossible for the Government to lose tonight, because if they feel they will lose, they will delay the vote, not proceed and lose, because defeat hurts government credibility and business far more than it would hurt the rebels.
Sunak will lead the Conservatives into the general election. 100%. Not even a shred of doubt of that.
I agree and it is not only fanciful but plainly ridiculous to change the leader again - Sunak will fight the GE as PM
People said that with Truss.
But Sunak has no plan to trash the economy.
Today’s inflation rise is being attributed to inherent vice in Sunak’s plan to ban cigarettes. That’s the thing with Sunak - you may say he had no plan to do such and such, but such and such seems to happen.
The truth is, as the history books will state, Sunak’s record is the man that borrowed to record levels, the man that taxed to historically high levels, the man that handed billions away to fraudsters, lost billions through incompetence, and presided over fast lane sleaze.
Will the history books also state that he was regarded as a considerable improvement on his predecessors?
Let's just hope they don't also record he was a considerable improvement on his successors.
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2024/01/17/2003812214 Beijing’s retaliatory tactic of wooing former diplomatic ally Nauru away from Taipei after Taiwan elected Vice President William Lai (賴清德) of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) would only anger the nation, Taiwanese politicians and analysts said yesterday.
Taiwan on Monday terminated diplomatic ties with Nauru with immediate effect after the Pacific island nation earlier in the day announced that it would recognize the People’s Republic of China.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that Nauru’s government had asked for a large sum of money prior to the switch — a request that Taiwan refused...
That's the other worrying thing about Trump. He can, quite obviously, be bought.
On topic. It’s impossible for the Government to lose tonight, because if they feel they will lose, they will delay the vote, not proceed and lose, because defeat hurts government credibility and business far more than it would hurt the rebels.
Sunak will lead the Conservatives into the general election. 100%. Not even a shred of doubt of that.
LOL. The whipping operation has been far from good this whole parliament. I suspect partly institutional - how many Tory MPs were elected in the 1987 parliament, the last with a decent majority? Probably in the tens. Have any of these been involved in the whips office? Not that I know of.
Accidental loss is far more likely than this comment credits.
Five current Tory MPs have served continuously since the 1987 GE:
Peter Bottomley (1975) Edward Leigh, Roger Gale, Bill Cash (1983) John Redwood (1987)
David Davis was also first elected in 1987 but had that brief time out when he fought that odd by-election. There may be a small number of others who were elected in or before 1987 but haven't served continuously. Either way, it's almost certainly single figures.
@BenQuinn75 💥 NEW: Rwanda’s president Paul Kagame warns there are limits to how long attempts to implement the deportation deal with Britain can 'drag on’
.. adds that that he would be happy for the scheme to be scrapped entirely.
We are now at the point where Rwanda is worried that its association with the UK will damage its international standing.
Are we getting to the point where Kagame will want to help the next PM rather than the outgoing? If he said " nah, this plan is dead", it would be helpful to Starmer.
Cash-strapped Auntie is selling off the family silver. Sale and lease back.
Nu10kenomics.
...The price Axa will pay for the 16-acre site has not been disclosed, but the BBC was reportedly looking for £70m. It comes as the broadcaster has to find £500m in annual savings. "The sale of the Elstree Centre site is part of an ongoing review of the BBC's property portfolio in order to provide the best value for licence fee payers," chief financial officer Alan Dickson said. "As part of the sale, the EastEnders site has been secured on a long-term lease and Elstree will continue to be the home of Albert Square." The sale comes two years after the BBC finished rebuilding the EastEnders set at a cost of £87m, which was £27m over budget and four years late...
FPT Dolly Parton has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. How do we have so many homes where a child doesn't have a single book?
When she was head of a local primary, Mrs Capitano gave every kid an individually chosen book for Christmas. For several of them it was the only book they had at home. And this isn't even in a desperately poor area.
I saw an article the other day that comprehension and retention is much better with physical books than with articles read on screen.
I read it on screen (maybe The Atlantic?) so inevitably can't recall where...
A couple of years ago I went on holiday for a week, switched off the phone and the iPad completely, bringing a couple of books to read on the beach.
I can still remember much of the contents of those books, in a way that I wouldn’t have remembered reading a few thousand words on the usual device.
Proper books all the way for me. I don't own a tablet and wouldn't know how to read a book on it even if I wanted to. Lovely to have shelves filled with books, like a room full of old friends!
I know most know of my health issues since October which will see me having a pacemaker on 6th February but now to add to my family's worries my son in law is in A & E resus with serious breathing issues and my daughter and granddaughter at his bedside
It never rains but it pours
Sorry to hear that Big_G.
Breathing issues seem to be one of the symptoms of whatever virus is currently sweeping the UK (probably a Covid variant? But could be something else) - they called the ambulance out for my aunt at the end of December & both my partner & I had a scary period of uncontrollable rapid breathing when we came down with it. Absolutely no fun at all.
@BenQuinn75 💥 NEW: Rwanda’s president Paul Kagame warns there are limits to how long attempts to implement the deportation deal with Britain can 'drag on’
.. adds that that he would be happy for the scheme to be scrapped entirely.
We are now at the point where Rwanda is worried that its association with the UK will damage its international standing.
Are we getting to the point where Kagame will want to help the next PM rather than the outgoing? If he said " nah, this plan is dead", it would be helpful to Starmer.
I think he just wants a new Lamborghini or three.
Why not, he's played a blinder so far. The Tories seem more than willing to chuck our money his way.
FPT Dolly Parton has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. How do we have so many homes where a child doesn't have a single book?
When she was head of a local primary, Mrs Capitano gave every kid an individually chosen book for Christmas. For several of them it was the only book they had at home. And this isn't even in a desperately poor area.
I saw an article the other day that comprehension and retention is much better with physical books than with articles read on screen.
I read it on screen (maybe The Atlantic?) so inevitably can't recall where...
I make a point of only reading fiction on my kindle. If I want any other genre, I have to buy it in old skool paper format. Unfortunately, that often means Amazon but I have started looking in charity shops, where you find some absolute gems. I can't find Sled Driver anywhere though 😕
I always read books on paper; I largely put this down to a forty decade habit being hard to break... Logically I know kindle and the like have a lot of practical advantages (especially for reading in a foreign language where the built in dictionary makes looking up the odd unknown word trivial), but I have too many fond memories of leafing through dead trees to want to change now :-)
Out of deeply ingrained habit I still buy (& have bought for me) paper books, I just don't read them One of the minor tragedies of my life.
I'm 100% certain now that Keir Starmer will be PM after the next election, because even a lot of Tories have had enough of the party after 14 years. But it could still be difficult for Lab to win a working majority for various reasons, one of which is the new boundaries.
The assumption that the Tories will benefit from the boundary changes is weakened by the scaleof apparent change in voting intention since the last election.
The only thing that can help the Tories in many seats will be a split opposition.
The tactical voting battles will be more complex with boundary changes. It’ll be harder for voters to work out who the main challenger is in many cases.
Given the importance of incumbency and past second places to the Lib Dems you’d think this will probably hinder their chances. The one counter to this being that in areas where Labour were second in the old seats last time but with no record on the new one, and Lib Dems are strong on the local council in those wards, tgis potentially helps with the bar charts.
That is where I think Carol Vorderman comes in - I think her telling people who to vote for will ensure a fair few votes end up going in the direction she suggests.
Really, apart from a few on twitter/social media who hang on her every word and were not likely to vote Tory anyway, will it really make a difference. She needs to influence people who are not receptive to her message and she comes over as somewhat unhinged in her posts.
I cannot see it.
She may come over as unhinged, but that isn't necessarily a problem, as large parts of the electorate are as unhinged. It is a matter of directing their anger at the real elite rather than some made up confection.
"... as large parts of the electorate are as unhinged. "
This sort of comment amuses me. The person who says it always, of course, puts themselves on the 'unhinged' side.
Incoherent rage is a common political feeling at present, and many have political views that don't fit neatly into boxes, including me. Eclectic might be a polite term for it. An interesting article here:
Well worth a read. That's one of the best, most concise summaries of the complexities of current political views that I've seen. It also points to how hard it is these days to predict individuals', let along groups', voting behaviour. Superb.
It’s interesting, and sets out some of the social trends that have been destabilising politics, but is not the entire story, surely, since it omits the role of the parties themselves. The Tories used to represent the better-off, better-educated, middle classes, Labour the converse, such that it used to be easy to ascribe most voters to the major party they leaned towards, the surprises being the occasional liberal. The tension that was always there for (many) poorer people to lean socially right and richer people socially left didn’t override a politics driven mainly by economic concerns.
Somewhere along the line the Conservatives began chasing after pensioner votes at the expense of those of working age, giving social issues greater priority in their policy mix, losing interest in business (other than as a source of donations, and even then), championing a particularly harsh form of Brexit, and choosing a couple of leaders design to repel a slice of their traditional base. In the round, you’d say that they had become more ideological - except of course that Mrs T was ideological, and you could argue that the realignment started with her.
At the same time, Labour sidelined much of its traditionally class-based and union-driven approach to economic policy, and began to champion more liberal social positions. Both of which date back to Blair, and reflect a decline in ideology. Such that when you look at the parties now, the Conservatives seem to be the ideologically-driven ones and Labour the economically pragmatic.
I know most know of my health issues since October which will see me having a pacemaker on 6th February but now to add to my family's worries my son in law is in A & E resus with serious breathing issues and my daughter and granddaughter at his bedside
It never rains but it pours
Sorry to hear that Big_G.
Breathing issues seem to be one of the symptoms of whatever virus is currently sweeping the UK (probably a Covid variant? But could be something else) - they called the ambulance out for my aunt at the end of December & both my partner & I had a scary period of uncontrollable rapid breathing when we came down with it. Absolutely no fun at all.
Thank you
They are checking for blood clots and possible gallstones and lots of tests being done
However, the junior doctors 3 day strike is in its final day and he has been told that due to this he will see the consultant surgeon once they have analysed all the data and made a decision on his treatment
I know most know of my health issues since October which will see me having a pacemaker on 6th February but now to add to my family's worries my son in law is in A & E resus with serious breathing issues and my daughter and granddaughter at his bedside
It never rains but it pours
Sorry to hear that Big_G.
Breathing issues seem to be one of the symptoms of whatever virus is currently sweeping the UK (probably a Covid variant? But could be something else) - they called the ambulance out for my aunt at the end of December & both my partner & I had a scary period of uncontrollable rapid breathing when we came down with it. Absolutely no fun at all.
FWIW, a friend of a friend is an epidemiologist who says there is a variant of Covid doing the rounds that the existing testing kits don't pick up.
I know most know of my health issues since October which will see me having a pacemaker on 6th February but now to add to my family's worries my son in law is in A & E resus with serious breathing issues and my daughter and granddaughter at his bedside
It never rains but it pours
I hope he comes through OK.
I had one a little like that - I went in with breathing difficulties by private car for speed (asthma with an unusual trigger - inkjet printer fumes from lots of printing), and when I arrived they asked me to blow into a breath-strength tester, at which point I had a respiratory arrest. My friend who took me in said that at that point it suddenly became quite exciting.
I know most know of my health issues since October which will see me having a pacemaker on 6th February but now to add to my family's worries my son in law is in A & E resus with serious breathing issues and my daughter and granddaughter at his bedside
It never rains but it pours
Sorry to hear that Big_G.
Breathing issues seem to be one of the symptoms of whatever virus is currently sweeping the UK (probably a Covid variant? But could be something else) - they called the ambulance out for my aunt at the end of December & both my partner & I had a scary period of uncontrollable rapid breathing when we came down with it. Absolutely no fun at all.
I'm not sure that's Covid. A couple of my family were bedridden for a week with high temps and very nasty chest infections. It wasn't Covid (multiple tests), and the GP said it's rife locally.
About time. His opponents ought to have worked out some time back that tearing lumps out of each other, while Trump snipes from the sidelines, helps only him.
@BenQuinn75 💥 NEW: Rwanda’s president Paul Kagame warns there are limits to how long attempts to implement the deportation deal with Britain can 'drag on’
.. adds that that he would be happy for the scheme to be scrapped entirely.
We are now at the point where Rwanda is worried that its association with the UK will damage its international standing.
Are we getting to the point where Kagame will want to help the next PM rather than the outgoing? If he said " nah, this plan is dead", it would be helpful to Starmer.
I think he just wants a new Lamborghini or three.
Arsenal could try to get a new striker out of it. £80M should do it. Starmer government giving Rwanda another £80M for doing absolutely nothing - and the £80M invested in Arsenal.
Or would the new Tory HM Opposition, led by Braverman, not let any governmrnt get away with something so absurd with tax payers money as that! 😈
FPT Dolly Parton has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. How do we have so many homes where a child doesn't have a single book?
When she was head of a local primary, Mrs Capitano gave every kid an individually chosen book for Christmas. For several of them it was the only book they had at home. And this isn't even in a desperately poor area.
I saw an article the other day that comprehension and retention is much better with physical books than with articles read on screen.
I read it on screen (maybe The Atlantic?) so inevitably can't recall where...
I make a point of only reading fiction on my kindle. If I want any other genre, I have to buy it in old skool paper format. Unfortunately, that often means Amazon but I have started looking in charity shops, where you find some absolute gems. I can't find Sled Driver anywhere though 😕
I always read books on paper; I largely put this down to a forty decade habit being hard to break... Logically I know kindle and the like have a lot of practical advantages (especially for reading in a foreign language where the built in dictionary makes looking up the odd unknown word trivial), but I have too many fond memories of leafing through dead trees to want to change now :-)
Out of deeply ingrained habit I still buy (& have bought for me) paper books, I just don't read them One of the minor tragedies of my life.
Why don’t you read them?
In my case, it's because I read about 20 pages a day and buy / are given about 20k pages a year.
Cash-strapped Auntie is selling off the family silver. Sale and lease back.
Nu10kenomics.
...The price Axa will pay for the 16-acre site has not been disclosed, but the BBC was reportedly looking for £70m. It comes as the broadcaster has to find £500m in annual savings. "The sale of the Elstree Centre site is part of an ongoing review of the BBC's property portfolio in order to provide the best value for licence fee payers," chief financial officer Alan Dickson said. "As part of the sale, the EastEnders site has been secured on a long-term lease and Elstree will continue to be the home of Albert Square." The sale comes two years after the BBC finished rebuilding the EastEnders set at a cost of £87m, which was £27m over budget and four years late...
Ah, but when you allow for inflation in the intervening period that's... um... oh!... even worse than it appears at first glance
Princess of Wales admitted to hospital for surgery and will return to duties around Easter
I can't keep up with the Royals, given they've recently all changed title for the first time in my lifetime - that'll be Katherine, will it?
ETA: And I don't like to repeat what others are saying rather than just liking relevant posts, but as I'm replying to you directly, I hope all goes well with your son in law and he is treated and home soon.
Best of British to Big G, and indeed all PB-ers suffering through the miseries of the British winter
And all best from a sultry wine bar in soft, languid, central Phnom Penh, 500 yards from the Royal Palace, where we sit outside and drink perfect lemongrass scented gin and tonics. Ahhhhhh. It is bliss. I cannot deny, and so cheap!
I think the time is coming for me to move semi-permanently from the UK. Just can’t do the climate. My bones are too old. My aged ribs crave the ancestral warmth of the African plains (or Caucasian valleys)n where we evolved. Man was not meant to live in Manchester
I know most know of my health issues since October which will see me having a pacemaker on 6th February but now to add to my family's worries my son in law is in A & E resus with serious breathing issues and my daughter and granddaughter at his bedside
It never rains but it pours
Sorry to hear that Big_G.
Breathing issues seem to be one of the symptoms of whatever virus is currently sweeping the UK (probably a Covid variant? But could be something else) - they called the ambulance out for my aunt at the end of December & both my partner & I had a scary period of uncontrollable rapid breathing when we came down with it. Absolutely no fun at all.
FWIW, a friend of a friend is an epidemiologist who says there is a variant of Covid doing the rounds that the existing testing kits don't pick up.
That's an interesting suggestion - have you any links to evidence for that ?
(Equally anecdotally, my mother had Covid (again) a couple of weeks back and it lit up the antigen test as strongly as the first time around. Definitely not the bug my wife had last week.)
Cash-strapped Auntie is selling off the family silver. Sale and lease back.
Nu10kenomics.
...The price Axa will pay for the 16-acre site has not been disclosed, but the BBC was reportedly looking for £70m. It comes as the broadcaster has to find £500m in annual savings. "The sale of the Elstree Centre site is part of an ongoing review of the BBC's property portfolio in order to provide the best value for licence fee payers," chief financial officer Alan Dickson said. "As part of the sale, the EastEnders site has been secured on a long-term lease and Elstree will continue to be the home of Albert Square." The sale comes two years after the BBC finished rebuilding the EastEnders set at a cost of £87m, which was £27m over budget and four years late...
It's only going to get worse, as people realise it isn't mandatory to watch TV as the BBC dictates. Other options are available.
Cash-strapped Auntie is selling off the family silver. Sale and lease back.
Nu10kenomics.
...The price Axa will pay for the 16-acre site has not been disclosed, but the BBC was reportedly looking for £70m. It comes as the broadcaster has to find £500m in annual savings. "The sale of the Elstree Centre site is part of an ongoing review of the BBC's property portfolio in order to provide the best value for licence fee payers," chief financial officer Alan Dickson said. "As part of the sale, the EastEnders site has been secured on a long-term lease and Elstree will continue to be the home of Albert Square." The sale comes two years after the BBC finished rebuilding the EastEnders set at a cost of £87m, which was £27m over budget and four years late...
Ah, but when you allow for inflation in the intervening period that's... um... oh!... even worse than it appears at first glance
You can't make sensible long term plans when multi-year funding agreements are cut half way through, so it's not entirely the fault of management.
This is absolutely horrendous from all angles. The poor boy.
*given timings, may have been more dehydration - not that long between last contact and discovery; under two weeks. But maybe that is long enough for a two year old to starve - older child/adult would last much longer, I think.
On the whole digital vs print thing. Fairly small study, but interesting.
Middle-schoolers’ reading and processing depth in response to digital and print media: An N400 study https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.08.30.553693v1 We report the first use of ERP measures to identify text engagement differences when reading digitally or in print. Depth of semantic encoding is key for reading comprehension, and we predicted that deeper reading of expository texts would facilitate stronger associations with subsequently-presented related words, resulting in enhanced N400 responses to unrelated probe words and a graded attenuation of the N400 to related and moderately related words. In contrast, shallow reading would produce weaker associations between probe words and text passages, resulting in enhanced N400 responses to both moderately related and unrelated words, and an attenuated response to related words. Behavioral research has shown deeper semantic encoding of text from paper than from a screen. Hence, we predicted that the N400 would index deeper reading of text passages that were presented in print, and shallower reading of texts presented digitally.
Middle-school students (n = 59) read passages in digital and print formats and high-density EEG was recorded while participants completed single-word semantic judgment tasks after each passage. Following digital text reading, the N400 response pattern anticipated for shallow reading was observed. Following print reading, the N400 response pattern expected for deeper reading was observed for related and unrelated words, although mean amplitude differences between related and moderately related probe words did not reach significance. These findings provide evidence of differences in brain responses to texts presented in print and digital media, including deeper semantic encoding for print than digital texts.
If it bears out, another confounding factor for Leon's 'IQ is crashing' theory.
Cash-strapped Auntie is selling off the family silver. Sale and lease back.
Nu10kenomics.
...The price Axa will pay for the 16-acre site has not been disclosed, but the BBC was reportedly looking for £70m. It comes as the broadcaster has to find £500m in annual savings. "The sale of the Elstree Centre site is part of an ongoing review of the BBC's property portfolio in order to provide the best value for licence fee payers," chief financial officer Alan Dickson said. "As part of the sale, the EastEnders site has been secured on a long-term lease and Elstree will continue to be the home of Albert Square." The sale comes two years after the BBC finished rebuilding the EastEnders set at a cost of £87m, which was £27m over budget and four years late...
Ah, but when you allow for inflation in the intervening period that's... um... oh!... even worse than it appears at first glance
You can't make sensible long term plans when multi-year funding agreements are cut half way through, so it's not entirely the fault of management.
But it does look pretty awful.
Yeah, more a highlighting of the daftness of the sudden cut in funding, forcing very sub-optimal decisions with long term costs.
Princess of Wales admitted to hospital for surgery and will return to duties around Easter
I can't keep up with the Royals, given they've recently all changed title for the first time in my lifetime - that'll be Katherine, will it?
ETA: And I don't like to repeat what others are saying rather than just liking relevant posts, but as I'm replying to you directly, I hope all goes well with your son in law and he is treated and home soon.
Yes, it's Katherine. The Palace is always stupidly reticent with details but two weeks in hospital and 3 months recovering sounds pretty major.
Comments
* Before GE 2024 (Sunak falls before the GE)
* Other 2024 (Unlikely, if Sunak wins the GE he stays as PM.)
* 2026 (minority Labour Government falls early)
* 2029 (one term Labour Government)
* 2033-34 (two term Labour Government)
* 2036-39 (scenario that resembles 2010-2024, New Labour or Thatcher)
* No Tory PM before 2040 (Conservatives replaced by Right of Centre party)
The cost of one of each buys you a library for all ages at a school fete/charity shop/coffee morning.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2024/jan/17/ed-balls-kicks-susanna-reid-in-the-head-on-good-morning-britain
I thought I knew all the potential pitfalls of the Rwanda policy; didn't anticipate this one!
Lord Boris of Downing Street becomes Tory leader and PM, immediately calls an election and stands in a safe seat. No need for a by-election since we are so close to the the wire now.
It's important to note that in the 2020s the conventional rules of politics no longer apply.
B ut HMG want 25 courts to be devoted solely to marketing free* one-way tickets. Or so it seems.
*To the winners. Not the public.
But more relevantly, how does he become leader when the Conservative constitution bans non-MPs from being candidates? This isn't simply a matter of convention; is written in the rules and any attempt to ignore the rule would no doubt be challenged by those opposed to his return.
💥 NEW:
Rwanda’s president Paul Kagame warns there are limits to how long attempts to implement the deportation deal with Britain can 'drag on’
.. adds that that he would be happy for the scheme to be scrapped entirely.
So in almost every case any change at all is against the interest of virtually all MPs. Bet accordingly.
1. He is a prominent Remainer (which is why he knows he would need a Leaver as Deputy) and would be better positioned to ward off the LD threat in the Blue Wall seats.
2. He has a reasonably competent / decent track record and one that - crucially, unlike Rishi - has been long. He therefore is probably better suited (and I would imagine is not exactly Mr Charisma but less awkward than Sunak).
3. It is not just Hunt alone that is key but the combination, someone who Blue Wall / Remainer Tories would back and one who, Red Wall / Leavers would back.
I'm sure there are going to be some huge challenges in the next 5-10 years. I wonder how well the party that is currently staking everything on the Rwanda gimmick will respond to those challenges.
Accidental loss is far more likely than this comment credits.
lots of old, free stuff you can read on your phone...
It never rains but it pours
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1856643/Boris-Johnson-Liz-Truss-portraits
The portraits are there but the Express seems upset there was no unveiling ceremony.
The truth is, as the history books will state, Sunak’s record is the man that borrowed to record levels, the man that taxed to historically high levels, the man that handed billions away to fraudsters, lost billions through incompetence, and presided over fast lane sleaze.
The biggest problem is understanding the difference between the question and the answer.
The "Populists" have a number of grievances. Which actually exist. Their answers are rubbish. But that isn't the fault of the questions.
If you want to win, come up with an answer to those question that works better. Rather than denying the question.
Unlike the mountains a few miles away, we tend to avoid snow being on the coast. Indeed in our case we live within 400 yards of the shoreline
The most organised school proudly showed us that they sent kids home with two books each week: ‘here’s one on phonics, and here’s one they might actually want to read’. I paraphrase, but not by much.
To be fair, I actually think the teaching of
phonics is great, if done well. But it very clearly misses important aspects of kids early experiences of reading.
Without that, any attempt to insert a non-MP onto the ballot would be vulnerable to a legal challenge (ironic given the Tories' aversion to that kind of thing but consistency rarely overrides interest with this current lot).
https://twitter.com/RailUKForums/status/1747564269963530566
If you are unsure if you want to travel at around 1800 or 1900 on this journey (London-Newcastle on Sat 17 Feb), LNER will only sell you an Anytime fare, at £192.80.
Yes that is the only fare with any degree of flexibility on that Saturday.
No Off Peak. No Semi Flex.
https://twitter.com/seatsixtyone/status/1747597346060304575
Easily solved by booking from Manors (one stop north of Newcastle) to London, a flexible & refundable Super Off-Peak costs £83.20 and can be used between Newcastle & London.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-68004649
Cash-strapped Auntie is selling off the family silver. Sale and lease back.
One Tory rebel tells me they only expect a hardcore of four or five MPs to actually vote against the Rwanda Bill tonight
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2024/01/17/2003812214
Beijing’s retaliatory tactic of wooing former diplomatic ally Nauru away from Taipei after Taiwan elected Vice President William Lai (賴清德) of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) would only anger the nation, Taiwanese politicians and analysts said yesterday.
Taiwan on Monday terminated diplomatic ties with Nauru with immediate effect after the Pacific island nation earlier in the day announced that it would recognize the People’s Republic of China.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that Nauru’s government had asked for a large sum of money prior to the switch — a request that Taiwan refused...
That's the other worrying thing about Trump.
He can, quite obviously, be bought.
Peter Bottomley (1975)
Edward Leigh, Roger Gale, Bill Cash (1983)
John Redwood (1987)
David Davis was also first elected in 1987 but had that brief time out when he fought that odd by-election. There may be a small number of others who were elected in or before 1987 but haven't served continuously. Either way, it's almost certainly single figures.
It comes as the broadcaster has to find £500m in annual savings.
"The sale of the Elstree Centre site is part of an ongoing review of the BBC's property portfolio in order to provide the best value for licence fee payers," chief financial officer Alan Dickson said.
"As part of the sale, the EastEnders site has been secured on a long-term lease and Elstree will continue to be the home of Albert Square."
The sale comes two years after the BBC finished rebuilding the EastEnders set at a cost of £87m, which was £27m over budget and four years late...
Breathing issues seem to be one of the symptoms of whatever virus is currently sweeping the UK (probably a Covid variant? But could be something else) - they called the ambulance out for my aunt at the end of December & both my partner & I had a scary period of uncontrollable rapid breathing when we came down with it. Absolutely no fun at all.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/17/nikki-haley-demands-debate-trump-new-hampshire/
Somewhere along the line the Conservatives began chasing after pensioner votes at the expense of those of working age, giving social issues greater priority in their policy mix, losing interest in business (other than as a source of donations, and even then), championing a particularly harsh form of Brexit, and choosing a couple of leaders design to repel a slice of their traditional base. In the round, you’d say that they had become more ideological - except of course that Mrs T was ideological, and you could argue that the realignment started with her.
At the same time, Labour sidelined much of its traditionally class-based and union-driven approach to economic policy, and began to champion more liberal social positions. Both of which date back to Blair, and reflect a decline in ideology. Such that when you look at the parties now, the Conservatives seem to be the ideologically-driven ones and Labour the economically pragmatic.
They are checking for blood clots and possible gallstones and lots of tests being done
However, the junior doctors 3 day strike is in its final day and he has been told that due to this he will see the consultant surgeon once they have analysed all the data and made a decision on his treatment
I had one a little like that - I went in with breathing difficulties by private car for speed (asthma with an unusual trigger - inkjet printer fumes from lots of printing), and when I arrived they asked me to blow into a breath-strength tester, at which point I had a respiratory arrest. My friend who took me in said that at that point it suddenly became quite exciting.
All the best.
A couple of my family were bedridden for a week with high temps and very nasty chest infections. It wasn't Covid (multiple tests), and the GP said it's rife locally.
Whatever it is, all the best to Big_G and family.
His opponents ought to have worked out some time back that tearing lumps out of each other, while Trump snipes from the sidelines, helps only him.
I'd say the opposite; it's a sign of confidence from Haley. She feels she doesn't need to debate the also-rans now.
Starmer government giving Rwanda another £80M for doing absolutely nothing - and the £80M invested in Arsenal.
Or would the new Tory HM Opposition, led by Braverman, not let any governmrnt get away with something so absurd with tax payers money as that! 😈
In reality it's the only sensible decision, given an opponent who refuses to debate.
ETA: And I don't like to repeat what others are saying rather than just liking relevant posts, but as I'm replying to you directly, I hope all goes well with your son in law and he is treated and home soon.
And all best from a sultry wine bar in soft, languid, central Phnom Penh, 500 yards from the Royal Palace, where we sit outside and drink perfect lemongrass scented gin and tonics. Ahhhhhh. It is bliss. I cannot deny, and so cheap!
I think the time is coming for me to move semi-permanently from the UK. Just can’t do the climate. My bones are too old. My aged ribs crave the ancestral warmth of the African plains (or Caucasian valleys)n where we evolved. Man was not meant to live in Manchester
(Equally anecdotally, my mother had Covid (again) a couple of weeks back and it lit up the antigen test as strongly as the first time around.
Definitely not the bug my wife had last week.)
But it does look pretty awful.
I suspect he hopes it might be a platform for some Biden gaffes.
(two year old and dad found dead - father suspected to have had heart attack and two year old died from starvation* subsequently due to no one else around to look after him)
This is absolutely horrendous from all angles. The poor boy.
*given timings, may have been more dehydration - not that long between last contact and discovery; under two weeks. But maybe that is long enough for a two year old to starve - older child/adult would last much longer, I think.
Fairly small study, but interesting.
Middle-schoolers’ reading and processing depth in response to digital and print media: An N400 study
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.08.30.553693v1
We report the first use of ERP measures to identify text engagement differences when reading digitally or in print. Depth of semantic encoding is key for reading comprehension, and we predicted that deeper reading of expository texts would facilitate stronger associations with subsequently-presented related words, resulting in enhanced N400 responses to unrelated probe words and a graded attenuation of the N400 to related and moderately related words. In contrast, shallow reading would produce weaker associations between probe words and text passages, resulting in enhanced N400 responses to both moderately related and unrelated words, and an attenuated response to related words. Behavioral research has shown deeper semantic encoding of text from paper than from a screen. Hence, we predicted that the N400 would index deeper reading of text passages that were presented in print, and shallower reading of texts presented digitally.
Middle-school students (n = 59) read passages in digital and print formats and high-density EEG was recorded while participants completed single-word semantic judgment tasks after each passage. Following digital text reading, the N400 response pattern anticipated for shallow reading was observed. Following print reading, the N400 response pattern expected for deeper reading was observed for related and unrelated words, although mean amplitude differences between related and moderately related probe words did not reach significance. These findings provide evidence of differences in brain responses to texts presented in print and digital media, including deeper semantic encoding for print than digital texts.
If it bears out, another confounding factor for Leon's 'IQ is crashing' theory.
She’s young. Fit. Healthy. Three growing kids
Two weeks in hospital is a LONG time for someone like that? Christ I hope it’s not something… grim
Good luck to her