I hope Nadine Dorries is right – politicalbetting.com
I hope Nadine Dorries is right – politicalbetting.com
I’m calling it now. The plan is to install David Cameron as next leader of the party following defeat in the GE. THE PLOT https://t.co/sSFbD1uulu
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
House of Lords = House of Unelected Has-Beens!
ETA: I have to keep going in and editing to remove double quoting as the OS is recording two clicks for single click (but two distinct clicks, rather than a double click). But only on Windows (where I am now) not on Linux, so not a hardware issue. Also happens outwith PB; very odd. Any ideas?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPHveu_Rd7k
For young children, there's not so much value in books if no adult able/willing to read with them at home (although our youngest two, pre-school, still love to look through books at the pictures, even unsupervised.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/17/ukraine-russia-war-live-eu-germany-aid/
'libraries still exist' - depends very much where you live, of course.
But until then, barring emergencies or holding appointments, no, it won't.
That said, if Sunak literally fell under a bus (or a private jet), and there was a need to appoint a PM before the Tories could elect a new leader, Cameron is now the obvious choice to fill in as a neutral appointment.
There are poorer people with a plethora of books. Rich folks with none at all.
I read it on screen (maybe The Atlantic?) so inevitably can't recall where...
I can still remember much of the contents of those books, in a way that I wouldn’t have remembered reading a few thousand words on the usual device.
Also, the childrten need to get to try books. Aiming books directly at children (rather than leaving it to parents who may not have a clue or an opportunity to buy something suitable, or time to go to the library) is good.
Checked my notebook for sensible rightwing Brexiteers and...nope, I've got nothing.
The Estonian government agreed with Poland that Russia intends to launch a direct attack against NATO within 3 years. The reemergence of Trump as a viable candidate, is not much discussed, but there certainly is a lot of thinking going on concerning a possible break down of NATO. The more immediate breakdown of deterrence is also on people´s minds. If a pretty determined counter attack against the Houthis doesn´t work, then it seems that neither Moscow nor Teheran is paying much attention to the wrath of the West- as the further direct attacks on Pakistan by the Iranians shows.
Then we had an alleged spy being arrested at the University of Tartu yesterday. I had actually met the man in question and it seems that the network he may have been a part of was also targeting the UK and US. So far, just another average day in Tallinn.
Yet, despite the cold and all the grim news across the middle east, there is a slight spring in the step of some of the key people here. Despite the outrageous threats of the Putin regime, the news is of growing crisis in Russia. Rolling black outs, shortages of food, not just eggs, constant mysterious fires and the gathering sense of break down in the cold.
The Ukrainians are eking out their reserves, but the Baltic and Nordic States continue their support, and soon the UK, the EU and the US will unlock new money. But before you dismiss the help of the Nordic/Baltic 8, it is worth remembering that their combined economies are larger than that of Russia. Russia is trying to allocate government expenditure of 20-30% of Russian GDP onto the war, but far from intimidating either the Baltic or indeed Ukraine, it is becoming clear that if Putin does this that then much of infrastructure of Russia will fall apart before he can bring any of these resources to bear on the war, and of course much will also be stolen anyway.
Already whole suburbs even of Moscow are seeing power outages for several hours. The breakdown of the heating systems across Russia is leading to huge problems as cities like Magadan freeze in temperatures of -40. In Bashkortostan, which has seen thousands of their men conscripted and a high percentage now dead, protests are becoming a daily occurrence.
The Russian Armed forces in Ukraine is suffering disaster after disaster, and it seems increasingly that they have lost, at least for a while, their capability for offensive operations. While the War seems like two tired boxers huddling after a slug fest, the Russians are increasingly facing bigger problems than the Ukrainians.
So, Time to put on hat, scarf and gloves and wander outside. At least I am not freezing in the cold like a lot of Russians are..
One of the minor tragedies of my life.
https://www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/united-states-america/eu-assistance-ukraine-us-dollars_en?s=253#:~:text=It includes:,in grants, loans, and guarantees
(Considerably more than have we.)
https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/peerages-can-they-be-removed/
🗣️I’m afraid that criticism is a fair one
Tory MP Danny Kruger on the judges the PM has promised for Rwanda appeals
https://twitter.com/vicderbyshire/status/1747557144038089152
Another possibility is to look for the mouse's own settings, especially with gaming mice.
@America1stLegal is leading the battle against DEI in our federal & state courts.
DEI is a war on merit that places all society in danger. Its hierarchy of race and sex preferences is illegal, unconstitutional and unconscionable.
Help us defeat it. #DemolishDEI #ReportRacism
https://twitter.com/StephenM/status/1747592196377776168
But when Bad Enoch – a minister so useless and invisible only political nerds have even heard of her – is favourite, you feel the Tories have to think outside the box.
I always feel some sort of bond with fellow passengers who are also reading a book, rather than looking at their phone.
Luckily, I rarely use the touchpad and never on Windows, really (when on Windows it's almost always on a dock as is for work). I tend to only use the touchpad for scrolling when not on the dock in Linux - I prefer the trackpoint and buttons for navigation when there's no mouse.
1951 - 1 year 244 days
1964 - 5 years 7 days
1970 - 4 years 79 days
1974 - 3 years 255 days
1979 - 4 years 205 days
1997 - 5 years 22 days
2010 - 5 years 1 day
If we look at all of the elections where the Parliament was shorter than five years then we can see that this was due to circumstances that don't apply now.
In 1951, Atlee hoped to improve his majority, and did actually improve Labour's share of the vote. In 1970, Heath's victory came as a surprise. In 1974, Heath called the election in the hope of winning a mandate to resolve the union disputes. In 1979, Callaghan's government lost a confidence vote.
In all the cases where a change in government looked very likely, the incumbent government was deeply unpopular, and the incumbent government was able to do so, the incumbent government continued for the full 5 years.
If Sunak were to call an election for the autumn - September or October, say - then it would be the earliest election for a government in their position. We should therefore, as a baseline, expect that this Parliament will go the distance, and that the next election will be on December 12th - with one extra leap year ensuring that, although it will be the same number of weeks as the 2005-2010 Parliament, it will be 5 years long, rather than 5 years and 1 day long.
That is unless there's some sort of extraordinary collapse of the government and there is a general election because no-one can hold the Tory party together to stagger on for a few months.
Huge worry that Trump 2.0 will give Putin everything he wants though.
Just feels to me that europe is just not focusing on what Trump's likely win means.
Why can’t props be used in Parliament - why can’t a leaflet of Starmer backing Jihadis be held up, when McDonnell could use his personal signed copy of Mao’s red book - props can be used in court and in church, I used picture of a sheep last month.
Why can’t politicians just sit there looking serious and unimpressed when being ridiculed by their opponents, Starmer was behaving like a grinning beetroot when Sunak was ridiculing him just now. Not a good look.
Has Nick Timothy been enobled yet?
It wasn't recording a double click, but two distinct single clicks - i.e. a single click on a document would not open it as double click would, but would select it and then de-select it. All very odd, but hopefully resolved.
Bog standard wired Logitech optical mouse, so no other fancy settings to mess with either.
That said, are kindles still a thing? It's ages since I've seen someone reading one - but then I haven't commuted by public transport for a few years now.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/16/chief-justice-criticises-plans-to-recruit-150-judges-to-deal-with-asylum-cases
Which is why it always makes me smile to see, on the cycle paths, a parent leading children on their bikes. Like a swan with the cygnets.
https://global.oup.com/education/content/primary/series/oxford-reading-tree/?region=uk is awesome for getting them going, but it needs work. There is a wonderful moment, when you've been reading with them for a while and they start grabbing the next book in the series off the shelf and doing it themselves.
1. Sunak goes within the next 2-3 months.
2. Hunt will be PM with McVey * as his deputy with the express intention of getting the Conservatives through the GE.
3. The next long-term leader will then be decided post-GE - probably not immediately but on a 2-3 year timescale
* I say McVey because Hunt and McVey teamed up for the leadership post-Boris and the thesis is to unite the Blue and Red wall parts of the party. However, it is possible for example Badenoch would fit the pro-'Red Tory' wing.
FPTP is only beneficial to Labour in the sense that it usually gives them more seats than their share 'deserves'. It's not beneficial in the sense of delivering power - only one Labour leader has won a general election in almost half a century and only two in the last three-quarters. It's given them only five workable majorities in the last twenty elections.
Sunak will lead the Conservatives into the general election. 100%. Not even a shred of doubt of that.
The Minister Pretending To Be In Charge Of The Post Office has done well to keep her head down during the Scandal, but it is sure to catch up with her soon and when it does, it will be hard to believe that price was ever on offer.
Is either very likely?
The populists will likely find themselves in the ascendancy when we next have a Con leadership election, though frankly a lot will depend on who does and does not retain their seat. A fair few of the gobbier populists are likely to be booted.
For me Braverman is probably the most likely winner, not least because Fareham is as safe as they come. Badenoch is also safe, but I suspect becoming tainted as a Sunakite.
Robert Jenrick looks value to me as well - 100/1 at Hill’s!
Got quite good at it - I was once asked, while doing so during a particularly long flight delay at Toronto Airport, whether I was a professional voice actor.