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I hope Nadine Dorries is right – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,010
edited January 22 in General
imageI hope Nadine Dorries is right – politicalbetting.com

I’m calling it now. The plan is to install David Cameron as next leader of the party following defeat in the GE. THE PLOT https://t.co/sSFbD1uulu

Read the full story here

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    Honourable first.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,609
    Less honourable 2(2).
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,223
    Dave = Unlected Has-Been!

    House of Lords = House of Unelected Has-Beens!
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,223
    FPT
    TimS said:

    viewcode said:

    Hurrah for Prince William.

    William ‘could cut ties with Church of England’ as king

    Unlike his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth, who regularly attended church with a bank note in her handbag for the collection, the Prince of Wales is not known for his Sunday attendance.

    Now a biography has gone further, saying that Prince William could become the first British monarch to break official ties with the Church of England. William is also said to want to make his coronation service “less spiritual”, “shorter” by cutting it to about an hour and ten minutes, and “more discreet”.

    The revelations feature in a book, Charles III: The Inside Story, by the journalist Robert Hardman. He writes: “In royal circles, it is no secret that [the Prince of Wales] does not share the King’s sense of the spiritual, let alone the late Queen’s unshakeable devotion to the Anglican church.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-william-church-of-england-break-ties-7dsgjrzth

    William is a bit stupid here. The link to God is the logical justification for his power: take that away and he's just a bald guy in a silly hat. And the Coronation mummery is necessary: it slathers a sheen of wonder and continuity over the succession. It's almost like somebody wrote an article about it: https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/05/06/ceremonies/
    I agree. The mummery is the only valuable bit. It's what gets the world watching. Weird rituals, Zadok the Priest, long processions, fancy robes. Ditch that and you might as well have a republic.
    You catch on well, my friend :lol:
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,097
    Well she must be right, she is hardly left.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    FPT Dolly Parton has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. How do we have so many homes where a child doesn't have a single book?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,233
    Nah
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,609
    edited January 17

    Pulpstar said:

    "1 in 5 children in England have no books at home"

    https://twitter.com/CatHobbs/status/1747540866963493300

    That's very sad tbh. Our lo loves her "That's not my....", Spot & various Hungry Caterpillar series books.
    Dolly Parton's Imagination charity has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. Perhaps they are not getting to the right children.
    Oh, that's always sad. The Scottish Book Trust (who do much else) has been going quite a long time. It has a fund to raise money to distribute books for children through the foodbank system and so on. Interestingly they do specialist packages eg tactile books for additional support needs through specialist networks.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,917

    FPT Dolly Parton has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. How do we have so many homes where a child doesn't have a single book?

    Was it ever any different?

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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,399
    edited January 17

    Dave = Unlected Has-Been!

    House of Lords = House of Unelected Has-Beens!

    That's unfair. The HoL also includes a fair number of never-have-beens and never-will-bes :wink:

    ETA: I have to keep going in and editing to remove double quoting as the OS is recording two clicks for single click (but two distinct clicks, rather than a double click). But only on Windows (where I am now) not on Linux, so not a hardware issue. Also happens outwith PB; very odd. Any ideas?
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,609

    Dave = Unlected Has-Been!

    House of Lords = House of Unelected Has-Beens!

    Come now, be fair. He was elected. Just not any more. 'No longer elected' is the expression for which you are searching.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,045
    Is there something ever so slightly endearing about TSE's bizarre but clearly sincere devotion to Lord Cameron?
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,664

    Is there something ever so slightly endearing about TSE's bizarre but clearly sincere devotion to Lord Cameron?

    If you are a thirty or forty something vaguely sensible Tory who else could you be politically devoted to?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,492
    Today's PO witness. Fujitsu software engineer John Simpkins.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPHveu_Rd7k
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,963
    Hard to see Tory MPs and members electing the effective leader of the Remain campaign in 2016 if Sunak loses the next GE. Most likely they would pick a Leaver from the Right
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,399
    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    "1 in 5 children in England have no books at home"

    https://twitter.com/CatHobbs/status/1747540866963493300

    That's very sad tbh. Our lo loves her "That's not my....", Spot & various Hungry Caterpillar series books.
    Dolly Parton's Imagination charity has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. Perhaps they are not getting to the right children.
    Oh, that's always sad. The Scottish Book Trust (who do much else) has been going quite a long time. It has a fund to raise money to distribute books for children through the foodbank system and so on. Interestingly they do specialist packages eg tactile books for additional support needs through specialist networks.
    Book Trust here gives them out free at school and (at least at our children's) play groups. Also a wide range for really next to nothing in charity shops, school fetes etc. Plus libraries still exist. I suspect it's more of a cultural thing around the importance of books, particularly if they weren't part of childhood, rather than really book availability.

    For young children, there's not so much value in books if no adult able/willing to read with them at home (although our youngest two, pre-school, still love to look through books at the pictures, even unsupervised.
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,079

    Is there something ever so slightly endearing about TSE's bizarre but clearly sincere devotion to Lord Cameron?

    Indeed. I remember reading a piece on the rivalry between Johnson and Cameron, which said that neither man could understand the appeal of the other. They were of course both right.
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    ClippPClippP Posts: 1,684

    FPT Dolly Parton has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. How do we have so many homes where a child doesn't have a single book?

    Another Conservative success, Mr Mark. The Cummings-Gove reforms of education were particularly keen on not teaching children to read and even more, not to think.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855
    EU condemns Germany for pledging their unilateral support for Ukraine, and not going through the EU mechanisms.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/17/ukraine-russia-war-live-eu-germany-aid/
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,609
    edited January 17
    Selebian said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    "1 in 5 children in England have no books at home"

    https://twitter.com/CatHobbs/status/1747540866963493300

    That's very sad tbh. Our lo loves her "That's not my....", Spot & various Hungry Caterpillar series books.
    Dolly Parton's Imagination charity has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. Perhaps they are not getting to the right children.
    Oh, that's always sad. The Scottish Book Trust (who do much else) has been going quite a long time. It has a fund to raise money to distribute books for children through the foodbank system and so on. Interestingly they do specialist packages eg tactile books for additional support needs through specialist networks.
    Book Trust here gives them out free at school and (at least at our children's) play groups. Also a wide range for really next to nothing in charity shops, school fetes etc. Plus libraries still exist. I suspect it's more of a cultural thing around the importance of books, particularly if they weren't part of childhood, rather than really book availability.

    For young children, there's not so much value in books if no adult able/willing to read with them at home (although our youngest two, pre-school, still love to look through books at the pictures, even unsupervised.
    Intderesting comments!

    'libraries still exist' - depends very much where you live, of course.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,223

    Is there something ever so slightly endearing about TSE's bizarre but clearly sincere devotion to Lord Cameron?

    Could it simply be Man-love?
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    FPT Dolly Parton has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. How do we have so many homes where a child doesn't have a single book?

    When she was head of a local primary, Mrs Capitano gave every kid an individually chosen book for Christmas. For several of them it was the only book they had at home. And this isn't even in a desperately poor area.
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    Cameron will probably be the only vaguely competent Tory available after the shit storm that's about to engulf the current sorry crop in Westminster anyway.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,936
    The Conservative Party Constitution says that the leader of the party has to be a member of the House of Commons - so all this shows is that Nadine does sod all research
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,148
    Call me shallow but the truth is I don't care too much who the Cons choose as their leader once they've been walloped at the GE. What I care about is the aforesaid walloping. It really has to happen.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,500
    A symbol of changing times is that in the next Tory leader betting, the highest white male who is currently in the Commons lies in10th place, and his name is Steve Barclay. Ahead of him are three who are not even MPs, one who isn't even a party member, four from minorities, and five women.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    "Ever" is a long time. If the Lords becomes elected (a bit of a contradiction in terms but the constitution handles worse), a PM could come from there again.

    But until then, barring emergencies or holding appointments, no, it won't.

    That said, if Sunak literally fell under a bus (or a private jet), and there was a need to appoint a PM before the Tories could elect a new leader, Cameron is now the obvious choice to fill in as a neutral appointment.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,500
    kinabalu said:

    Call me shallow but the truth is I don't care too much who the Cons choose as their leader once they've been walloped at the GE. What I care about is the aforesaid walloping. It really has to happen.

    In the long run it matters quite a bit that there are two parties capable of forming a centrist government.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Sandpit said:

    EU condemns Germany for pledging their unilateral support for Ukraine, and not going through the EU mechanisms.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/17/ukraine-russia-war-live-eu-germany-aid/

    Do the weapons provided via the EU have "thank EU" stickers on them?
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    It is fantastic that out of all the Tories available, the only one semi sane Tories can focus on is a washed up old has been. Just call the damn election now, get the shit storm over with!
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,437
    Much more likely is that the Tories will remould/rebrand as a hard right movement, I am sorry to say. The trajectory is already clear.
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,664
    edited January 17

    Much more likely is that the Tories will remould/rebrand as a hard right movement, I am sorry to say. The trajectory is already clear.

    Full populist right is probably more accurate than hard right. They won't be conservative with a small c.
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    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Call me shallow but the truth is I don't care too much who the Cons choose as their leader once they've been walloped at the GE. What I care about is the aforesaid walloping. It really has to happen.

    In the long run it matters quite a bit that there are two parties capable of forming a centrist government.
    It does matter, but the Conservative Party has actually harmed the country with its shenanigans over the past decade. They're not fit to be involved in government in their current incarnation.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855
    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    EU condemns Germany for pledging their unilateral support for Ukraine, and not going through the EU mechanisms.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/17/ukraine-russia-war-live-eu-germany-aid/

    Do the weapons provided via the EU have "thank EU" stickers on them?
    They would do, except that the EU can’t agree on supplying any weapons to Ukraine.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,500

    FPT Dolly Parton has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. How do we have so many homes where a child doesn't have a single book?

    When she was head of a local primary, Mrs Capitano gave every kid an individually chosen book for Christmas. For several of them it was the only book they had at home. And this isn't even in a desperately poor area.
    It is not directly money related. Children's books for all ages by the million are available for tiny sums - pence and often free - at charity shops, outside shops, school fetes and so on. As always the culture beats both strategy and cash.

    There are poorer people with a plethora of books. Rich folks with none at all.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,437

    Much more likely is that the Tories will remould/rebrand as a hard right movement, I am sorry to say. The trajectory is already clear.

    Full populist right is probably more accurate than hard right. They won't be conservative with a small c.
    A good point. Quite possibly.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,042
    Sandpit said:

    EU condemns Germany for pledging their unilateral support for Ukraine, and not going through the EU mechanisms.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/17/ukraine-russia-war-live-eu-germany-aid/

    Thierry Breton is a megalomaniac.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,042
    algarkirk said:

    FPT Dolly Parton has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. How do we have so many homes where a child doesn't have a single book?

    When she was head of a local primary, Mrs Capitano gave every kid an individually chosen book for Christmas. For several of them it was the only book they had at home. And this isn't even in a desperately poor area.
    It is not directly money related. Children's books for all ages by the million are available for tiny sums - pence and often free - at charity shops, outside shops, school fetes and so on. As always the culture beats both strategy and cash.

    There are poorer people with a plethora of books. Rich folks with none at all.
    A packet of cigarettes costs more than most paperbacks these days.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,125
    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    EU condemns Germany for pledging their unilateral support for Ukraine, and not going through the EU mechanisms.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/17/ukraine-russia-war-live-eu-germany-aid/

    Do the weapons provided via the EU have "thank EU" stickers on them?
    They would do, except that the EU can’t agree on supplying any weapons to Ukraine.
    I thought the EU had supplied lots of weapons to Ukraine through a joint funding arrangement? It caused a bit of upset in Ireland, because Ireland contributed to the fund on the proviso that everyone pretended its contribution was only used for the non-lethal aid parts of the package.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,399
    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    "1 in 5 children in England have no books at home"

    https://twitter.com/CatHobbs/status/1747540866963493300

    That's very sad tbh. Our lo loves her "That's not my....", Spot & various Hungry Caterpillar series books.
    Dolly Parton's Imagination charity has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. Perhaps they are not getting to the right children.
    Oh, that's always sad. The Scottish Book Trust (who do much else) has been going quite a long time. It has a fund to raise money to distribute books for children through the foodbank system and so on. Interestingly they do specialist packages eg tactile books for additional support needs through specialist networks.
    Book Trust here gives them out free at school and (at least at our children's) play groups. Also a wide range for really next to nothing in charity shops, school fetes etc. Plus libraries still exist. I suspect it's more of a cultural thing around the importance of books, particularly if they weren't part of childhood, rather than really book availability.

    For young children, there's not so much value in books if no adult able/willing to read with them at home (although our youngest two, pre-school, still love to look through books at the pictures, even unsupervised.
    Intderesting comments!

    'libraries still exist' - depends very much where you live, of course.
    Yes, probably needs some qualifier in many places, such as 'in towns' or similar. Ours is still very much open and doing quite well in town and has a mobile service that goes round the small villages every fortnight (with a selection and you can pre-order anything they have in the central library to be on the van, either at the previous visit or online or by phone).
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,553

    FPT Dolly Parton has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. How do we have so many homes where a child doesn't have a single book?

    When she was head of a local primary, Mrs Capitano gave every kid an individually chosen book for Christmas. For several of them it was the only book they had at home. And this isn't even in a desperately poor area.
    I saw an article the other day that comprehension and retention is much better with physical books than with articles read on screen.

    I read it on screen (maybe The Atlantic?) so inevitably can't recall where...

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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,148
    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Call me shallow but the truth is I don't care too much who the Cons choose as their leader once they've been walloped at the GE. What I care about is the aforesaid walloping. It really has to happen.

    In the long run it matters quite a bit that there are two parties capable of forming a centrist government.
    Yes, that's true. We don't want to see them going even further off piste. But right now, the absolutely key national interest requirement is a punishment beating at the ballot box.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,982
    Sandpit said:

    EU condemns Germany for pledging their unilateral support for Ukraine, and not going through the EU mechanisms.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/17/ukraine-russia-war-live-eu-germany-aid/

    Double whammy of fake news shirly? I've been told repeatedly on here that a) EU countries are irredeemably bound by the heavy hand of the EU and b) Germany is a particular laggard in support for Ukraine.
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    twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,076
    edited January 17
    Foxy said:

    FPT Dolly Parton has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. How do we have so many homes where a child doesn't have a single book?

    When she was head of a local primary, Mrs Capitano gave every kid an individually chosen book for Christmas. For several of them it was the only book they had at home. And this isn't even in a desperately poor area.
    I saw an article the other day that comprehension and retention is much better with physical books than with articles read on screen.

    I read it on screen (maybe The Atlantic?) so inevitably can't recall where...

    I make a point of only reading fiction on my kindle. If I want any other genre, I have to buy it in old skool paper format. Unfortunately, that often means Amazon but I have started looking in charity shops, where you find some absolute gems. I can't find Sled Driver anywhere though 😕
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855
    Foxy said:

    FPT Dolly Parton has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. How do we have so many homes where a child doesn't have a single book?

    When she was head of a local primary, Mrs Capitano gave every kid an individually chosen book for Christmas. For several of them it was the only book they had at home. And this isn't even in a desperately poor area.
    I saw an article the other day that comprehension and retention is much better with physical books than with articles read on screen.

    I read it on screen (maybe The Atlantic?) so inevitably can't recall where...

    A couple of years ago I went on holiday for a week, switched off the phone and the iPad completely, bringing a couple of books to read on the beach.

    I can still remember much of the contents of those books, in a way that I wouldn’t have remembered reading a few thousand words on the usual device.
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    sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 123
    Foxy said:

    FPT Dolly Parton has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. How do we have so many homes where a child doesn't have a single book?

    When she was head of a local primary, Mrs Capitano gave every kid an individually chosen book for Christmas. For several of them it was the only book they had at home. And this isn't even in a desperately poor area.
    I saw an article the other day that comprehension and retention is much better with physical books than with articles read on screen.

    I read it on screen (maybe The Atlantic?) so inevitably can't recall where...

    I've been in many houses, certainly not poverty-stricken households, where I haven't seen a single book on display.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    Much more likely is that the Tories will remould/rebrand as a hard right movement, I am sorry to say. The trajectory is already clear.

    Trajectories do not hold forever. We shouldn't confuse projection with predictions. After all, Labour was on a steadily leftwards trajectory from about 2005-19 - until it then wasn't. However, I do expect the Tories to continue rightwards on social issues (but not economic ones other than being in favour of 'cutting tax'), for the next 2-3 years at a minimum. Thereafter, who knows? A lot will turn on what Farage and Reform UK want to do, and whether Labour introduces PR (which they won't in a first term unless they seriously underperform and need the Lib Dems, but might well in a second one).
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,255
    Selebian said:

    Dave = Unlected Has-Been!

    House of Lords = House of Unelected Has-Beens!

    That's unfair. The HoL also includes a fair number of never-have-beens and never-will-bes :wink:

    ETA: I have to keep going in and editing to remove double quoting as the OS is recording two clicks for single click (but two distinct clicks, rather than a double click). But only on Windows (where I am now) not on Linux, so not a hardware issue. Also happens outwith PB; very odd. Any ideas?
    It is a Windows setting. File explorer > view > change > single/double click


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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,914
    Would it be so bad if Call Me Dave is installed after the election as Mad Nad suggests? It would at least restore sanity to the loony bin Tory Party and would give the Tories a fighting chance of regaining power next time. The more I think about it, the more I think it's a genius idea. Go in May, mitigate the losses. Dave installed. Gets to fight a modest Labour majority in five years on Tory-friendly gerrymandered boundaries.
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    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT Dolly Parton has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. How do we have so many homes where a child doesn't have a single book?

    When she was head of a local primary, Mrs Capitano gave every kid an individually chosen book for Christmas. For several of them it was the only book they had at home. And this isn't even in a desperately poor area.
    I saw an article the other day that comprehension and retention is much better with physical books than with articles read on screen.

    I read it on screen (maybe The Atlantic?) so inevitably can't recall where...

    A couple of years ago I went on holiday for a week, switched off the phone and the iPad completely, bringing a couple of books to read on the beach.

    I can still remember much of the contents of those books, in a way that I wouldn’t have remembered reading a few thousand words on the usual device.
    I find that I often even forget the title of the novel I'm reading on my kindle as you never really see the front cover. It serves its purpose but I've gone back to physically buying magazines and am committed to building up a decent collection of reference books again.
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    pm215pm215 Posts: 934

    Foxy said:

    FPT Dolly Parton has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. How do we have so many homes where a child doesn't have a single book?

    When she was head of a local primary, Mrs Capitano gave every kid an individually chosen book for Christmas. For several of them it was the only book they had at home. And this isn't even in a desperately poor area.
    I saw an article the other day that comprehension and retention is much better with physical books than with articles read on screen.

    I read it on screen (maybe The Atlantic?) so inevitably can't recall where...

    I make a point of only reading fiction on my kindle. If I want any other genre, I have to buy it in old skool paper format. Unfortunately, that often means Amazon but I have started looking in charity shops, where you find some absolute gems. I can't find Sled Driver anywhere though 😕
    I always read books on paper; I largely put this down to a forty decade habit being hard to break... Logically I know kindle and the like have a lot of practical advantages (especially for reading in a foreign language where the built in dictionary makes looking up the odd unknown word trivial), but I have too many fond memories of leafing through dead trees to want to change now :-)
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,609
    Selebian said:

    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    "1 in 5 children in England have no books at home"

    https://twitter.com/CatHobbs/status/1747540866963493300

    That's very sad tbh. Our lo loves her "That's not my....", Spot & various Hungry Caterpillar series books.
    Dolly Parton's Imagination charity has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. Perhaps they are not getting to the right children.
    Oh, that's always sad. The Scottish Book Trust (who do much else) has been going quite a long time. It has a fund to raise money to distribute books for children through the foodbank system and so on. Interestingly they do specialist packages eg tactile books for additional support needs through specialist networks.
    Book Trust here gives them out free at school and (at least at our children's) play groups. Also a wide range for really next to nothing in charity shops, school fetes etc. Plus libraries still exist. I suspect it's more of a cultural thing around the importance of books, particularly if they weren't part of childhood, rather than really book availability.

    For young children, there's not so much value in books if no adult able/willing to read with them at home (although our youngest two, pre-school, still love to look through books at the pictures, even unsupervised.
    Intderesting comments!

    'libraries still exist' - depends very much where you live, of course.
    Yes, probably needs some qualifier in many places, such as 'in towns' or similar. Ours is still very much open and doing quite well in town and has a mobile service that goes round the small villages every fortnight (with a selection and you can pre-order anything they have in the central library to be on the van, either at the previous visit or online or by phone).
    Obviously best to have a library. Real problems with some towns and inner/outer cities too, though, esp. if one doesn't have a car. Some libraries have been closed or downsized or reduced to purely volunteer operations.

    Also, the childrten need to get to try books. Aiming books directly at children (rather than leaving it to parents who may not have a clue or an opportunity to buy something suitable, or time to go to the library) is good.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,982

    Would it be so bad if Call Me Dave is installed after the election as Mad Nad suggests? It would at least restore sanity to the loony bin Tory Party and would give the Tories a fighting chance of regaining power next time. The more I think about it, the more I think it's a genius idea. Go in May, mitigate the losses. Dave installed. Gets to fight a modest Labour majority in five years on Tory-friendly gerrymandered boundaries.

    Wouldn't that lead to a permanent split of the Tory party unless Dave got a big chunk of sensible rightwing Brexiteers inside his big, somewhat piss stained tent?
    Checked my notebook for sensible rightwing Brexiteers and...nope, I've got nothing.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,609
    pm215 said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT Dolly Parton has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. How do we have so many homes where a child doesn't have a single book?

    When she was head of a local primary, Mrs Capitano gave every kid an individually chosen book for Christmas. For several of them it was the only book they had at home. And this isn't even in a desperately poor area.
    I saw an article the other day that comprehension and retention is much better with physical books than with articles read on screen.

    I read it on screen (maybe The Atlantic?) so inevitably can't recall where...

    I make a point of only reading fiction on my kindle. If I want any other genre, I have to buy it in old skool paper format. Unfortunately, that often means Amazon but I have started looking in charity shops, where you find some absolute gems. I can't find Sled Driver anywhere though 😕
    I always read books on paper; I largely put this down to a forty decade habit being hard to break... Logically I know kindle and the like have a lot of practical advantages (especially for reading in a foreign language where the built in dictionary makes looking up the odd unknown word trivial), but I have too many fond memories of leafing through dead trees to want to change now :-)
    Must have been quite exciting when Francis Bacon's *Novum Organum* appeared in the local bookseller!
  • Options
    pm215pm215 Posts: 934
    Selebian said:

    Dave = Unlected Has-Been!

    House of Lords = House of Unelected Has-Beens!

    That's unfair. The HoL also includes a fair number of never-have-beens and never-will-bes :wink:

    ETA: I have to keep going in and editing to remove double quoting as the OS is recording two clicks for single click (but two distinct clicks, rather than a double click). But only on Windows (where I am now) not on Linux, so not a hardware issue. Also happens outwith PB; very odd. Any ideas?
    Purely a guess, but I would try looking through the Windows mouse settings and especially the accessibility settings -- maybe some sort of setting to help people who have trouble with the timing of a double click has got turned on by accident somehow?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,914

    Much more likely is that the Tories will remould/rebrand as a hard right movement, I am sorry to say. The trajectory is already clear.

    Trajectories do not hold forever. We shouldn't confuse projection with predictions. After all, Labour was on a steadily leftwards trajectory from about 2005-19 - until it then wasn't. However, I do expect the Tories to continue rightwards on social issues (but not economic ones other than being in favour of 'cutting tax'), for the next 2-3 years at a minimum. Thereafter, who knows? A lot will turn on what Farage and Reform UK want to do, and whether Labour introduces PR (which they won't in a first term unless they seriously underperform and need the Lib Dems, but might well in a second one).
    Why would Labour introduce PR? Stramer opposes it, as does much of the Labour high command and most of its grandees. Given FPP is advantageous to the party, hard to see why it would abolish it!
  • Options
    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,976
    I’m not sure Sunak has done anything to settle Tory nerves based on this PMQ performance.

  • Options
    pm215pm215 Posts: 934
    Carnyx said:

    pm215 said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT Dolly Parton has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. How do we have so many homes where a child doesn't have a single book?

    When she was head of a local primary, Mrs Capitano gave every kid an individually chosen book for Christmas. For several of them it was the only book they had at home. And this isn't even in a desperately poor area.
    I saw an article the other day that comprehension and retention is much better with physical books than with articles read on screen.

    I read it on screen (maybe The Atlantic?) so inevitably can't recall where...

    I make a point of only reading fiction on my kindle. If I want any other genre, I have to buy it in old skool paper format. Unfortunately, that often means Amazon but I have started looking in charity shops, where you find some absolute gems. I can't find Sled Driver anywhere though 😕
    I always read books on paper; I largely put this down to a forty decade habit being hard to break... Logically I know kindle and the like have a lot of practical advantages (especially for reading in a foreign language where the built in dictionary makes looking up the odd unknown word trivial), but I have too many fond memories of leafing through dead trees to want to change now :-)
    Must have been quite exciting when Francis Bacon's *Novum Organum* appeared in the local bookseller!
    Hahaha! Thinko for "four decades", of course.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,609

    pm215 said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT Dolly Parton has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. How do we have so many homes where a child doesn't have a single book?

    When she was head of a local primary, Mrs Capitano gave every kid an individually chosen book for Christmas. For several of them it was the only book they had at home. And this isn't even in a desperately poor area.
    I saw an article the other day that comprehension and retention is much better with physical books than with articles read on screen.

    I read it on screen (maybe The Atlantic?) so inevitably can't recall where...

    I make a point of only reading fiction on my kindle. If I want any other genre, I have to buy it in old skool paper format. Unfortunately, that often means Amazon but I have started looking in charity shops, where you find some absolute gems. I can't find Sled Driver anywhere though 😕
    I always read books on paper; I largely put this down to a forty decade habit being hard to break... Logically I know kindle and the like have a lot of practical advantages (especially for reading in a foreign language where the built in dictionary makes looking up the odd unknown word trivial), but I have too many fond memories of leafing through dead trees to want to change now :-)
    Out of deeply ingrained habit I still buy (& have bought for me) paper books, I just don't read them :(
    One of the minor tragedies of my life.
    I must admit that covid made me work through quite a lot of my backlog. Though inheriting the family home bookcases slowed things down while I worked through those as well ... still not finished either.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,411

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    EU condemns Germany for pledging their unilateral support for Ukraine, and not going through the EU mechanisms.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/17/ukraine-russia-war-live-eu-germany-aid/

    Do the weapons provided via the EU have "thank EU" stickers on them?
    They would do, except that the EU can’t agree on supplying any weapons to Ukraine.
    I thought the EU had supplied lots of weapons to Ukraine through a joint funding arrangement? It caused a bit of upset in Ireland, because Ireland contributed to the fund on the proviso that everyone pretended its contribution was only used for the non-lethal aid parts of the package.
    Some detail here.
    https://www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/united-states-america/eu-assistance-ukraine-us-dollars_en?s=253#:~:text=It includes:,in grants, loans, and guarantees
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,411

    Sandpit said:

    EU condemns Germany for pledging their unilateral support for Ukraine, and not going through the EU mechanisms.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/17/ukraine-russia-war-live-eu-germany-aid/

    Double whammy of fake news shirly? I've been told repeatedly on here that a) EU countries are irredeemably bound by the heavy hand of the EU and b) Germany is a particular laggard in support for Ukraine.
    Germany was a laggard, but has given Ukraine more aid than anyone barring the US.
    (Considerably more than have we.)
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,255
    eek said:

    The Conservative Party Constitution says that the leader of the party has to be a member of the House of Commons - so all this shows is that Nadine does sod all research

    And life peerages cannot be renounced. (Hereditary peerages can, thanks to Tony Benn.) However, Cameron could give up his right to sit in the Lords, which might allow him (subject to being elected) back into the Commons.
    https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/peerages-can-they-be-removed/

  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,298
    I love Dave.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,411
    🎙️ What do you say to rape victims, who’ve been waiting 4 yrs for their case to come to court , & they see Mr Sunak click his fingers to find 150 new judges?

    🗣️I’m afraid that criticism is a fair one

    Tory MP Danny Kruger on the judges the PM has promised for Rwanda appeals

    https://twitter.com/vicderbyshire/status/1747557144038089152
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,255
    pm215 said:

    Selebian said:

    Dave = Unlected Has-Been!

    House of Lords = House of Unelected Has-Beens!

    That's unfair. The HoL also includes a fair number of never-have-beens and never-will-bes :wink:

    ETA: I have to keep going in and editing to remove double quoting as the OS is recording two clicks for single click (but two distinct clicks, rather than a double click). But only on Windows (where I am now) not on Linux, so not a hardware issue. Also happens outwith PB; very odd. Any ideas?
    Purely a guess, but I would try looking through the Windows mouse settings and especially the accessibility settings -- maybe some sort of setting to help people who have trouble with the timing of a double click has got turned on by accident somehow?
    Yes, that's a thought. The mouse settings include a click-speed adjustment (assuming it is not the single/double issue I mentioned earlier).

    Another possibility is to look for the mouse's own settings, especially with gaming mice.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,411
    Champion of 'merit based' hiring, who worked alongside... Jared and Ivanka in Trump's administration.

    @America1stLegal is leading the battle against DEI in our federal & state courts.

    DEI is a war on merit that places all society in danger. Its hierarchy of race and sex preferences is illegal, unconstitutional and unconscionable.

    Help us defeat it. #DemolishDEI #ReportRacism

    https://twitter.com/StephenM/status/1747592196377776168
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,609
    Nigelb said:

    🎙️ What do you say to rape victims, who’ve been waiting 4 yrs for their case to come to court , & they see Mr Sunak click his fingers to find 150 new judges?

    🗣️I’m afraid that criticism is a fair one

    Tory MP Danny Kruger on the judges the PM has promised for Rwanda appeals

    https://twitter.com/vicderbyshire/status/1747557144038089152

    I really didn't believe that 150 when you posted it, quite unfairly to you. OTOH there are just over 3.1K judges in E&W (2020 data admittedly) but the point still stands.
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    EU condemns Germany for pledging their unilateral support for Ukraine, and not going through the EU mechanisms.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/17/ukraine-russia-war-live-eu-germany-aid/

    Double whammy of fake news shirly? I've been told repeatedly on here that a) EU countries are irredeemably bound by the heavy hand of the EU and b) Germany is a particular laggard in support for Ukraine.
    Germany was a laggard, but has given Ukraine more aid than anyone barring the US.
    (Considerably more than have we.)
    And is also sheltering over a million Ukrainian refugees, compared with our couple of hundred thousand.
  • Options
    ClippPClippP Posts: 1,684

    Much more likely is that the Tories will remould/rebrand as a hard right movement, I am sorry to say. The trajectory is already clear.

    Trajectories do not hold forever. We shouldn't confuse projection with predictions. After all, Labour was on a steadily leftwards trajectory from about 2005-19 - until it then wasn't. However, I do expect the Tories to continue rightwards on social issues (but not economic ones other than being in favour of 'cutting tax'), for the next 2-3 years at a minimum. Thereafter, who knows? A lot will turn on what Farage and Reform UK want to do, and whether Labour introduces PR (which they won't in a first term unless they seriously underperform and need the Lib Dems, but might well in a second one).
    Why would Labour introduce PR? Stramer opposes it, as does much of the Labour high command and most of its grandees. Given FPP is advantageous to the party, hard to see why it would abolish it!
    Perhaps fairness, or even democracy. But then we are talkng about the Labour Paty. so perhaps not.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,560
    eek said:

    The Conservative Party Constitution says that the leader of the party has to be a member of the House of Commons - so all this shows is that Nadine does sod all research

    I think Nadine Dorries is shooting to be the UK’s equivalent of Marjorie Taylor Greene.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,914

    Would it be so bad if Call Me Dave is installed after the election as Mad Nad suggests? It would at least restore sanity to the loony bin Tory Party and would give the Tories a fighting chance of regaining power next time. The more I think about it, the more I think it's a genius idea. Go in May, mitigate the losses. Dave installed. Gets to fight a modest Labour majority in five years on Tory-friendly gerrymandered boundaries.

    Wouldn't that lead to a permanent split of the Tory party unless Dave got a big chunk of sensible rightwing Brexiteers inside his big, somewhat piss stained tent?
    Checked my notebook for sensible rightwing Brexiteers and...nope, I've got nothing.
    Details, details.

    But when Bad Enoch – a minister so useless and invisible only political nerds have even heard of her – is favourite, you feel the Tories have to think outside the box.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,609
    eek said:

    The Conservative Party Constitution says that the leader of the party has to be a member of the House of Commons - so all this shows is that Nadine does sod all research

    Hang on, that isn't the same as Prime Minister, unless the CPC thinks being PM is a secondary part of being head of the CUPUK.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,587
    Carnyx said:

    pm215 said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT Dolly Parton has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. How do we have so many homes where a child doesn't have a single book?

    When she was head of a local primary, Mrs Capitano gave every kid an individually chosen book for Christmas. For several of them it was the only book they had at home. And this isn't even in a desperately poor area.
    I saw an article the other day that comprehension and retention is much better with physical books than with articles read on screen.

    I read it on screen (maybe The Atlantic?) so inevitably can't recall where...

    I make a point of only reading fiction on my kindle. If I want any other genre, I have to buy it in old skool paper format. Unfortunately, that often means Amazon but I have started looking in charity shops, where you find some absolute gems. I can't find Sled Driver anywhere though 😕
    I always read books on paper; I largely put this down to a forty decade habit being hard to break... Logically I know kindle and the like have a lot of practical advantages (especially for reading in a foreign language where the built in dictionary makes looking up the odd unknown word trivial), but I have too many fond memories of leafing through dead trees to want to change now :-)
    Out of deeply ingrained habit I still buy (& have bought for me) paper books, I just don't read them :(
    One of the minor tragedies of my life.
    I must admit that covid made me work through quite a lot of my backlog. Though inheriting the family home bookcases slowed things down while I worked through those as well ... still not finished either.
    I read War & Peace during lockdown. A good time to read it as I wouldn't be wanting to carry it with me to read on the train!

    I always feel some sort of bond with fellow passengers who are also reading a book, rather than looking at their phone.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,399
    pm215 said:

    Selebian said:

    Dave = Unlected Has-Been!

    House of Lords = House of Unelected Has-Beens!

    That's unfair. The HoL also includes a fair number of never-have-beens and never-will-bes :wink:

    ETA: I have to keep going in and editing to remove double quoting as the OS is recording two clicks for single click (but two distinct clicks, rather than a double click). But only on Windows (where I am now) not on Linux, so not a hardware issue. Also happens outwith PB; very odd. Any ideas?
    Purely a guess, but I would try looking through the Windows mouse settings and especially the accessibility settings -- maybe some sort of setting to help people who have trouble with the timing of a double click has got turned on by accident somehow?
    After some more Googling and fiddling around, turning off the touchpad seems to have fixed it. It's a Thinkpad with (i) touchpad, (ii) trackpoint and buttons above the touchpad, (iii) optical mouse attached via docking station. Disabling the touchpad (not the trackpoint or physical buttons) has removed the phantom mouse clicks. Some software oddity...

    Luckily, I rarely use the touchpad and never on Windows, really (when on Windows it's almost always on a dock as is for work). I tend to only use the touchpad for scrolling when not on the dock in Linux - I prefer the trackpoint and buttons for navigation when there's no mouse.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,125
    edited January 17

    It is fantastic that out of all the Tories available, the only one semi sane Tories can focus on is a washed up old has been. Just call the damn election now, get the shit storm over with!

    I had a look at the time between general elections, when that general election led to a change in government, since WWII.

    1951 - 1 year 244 days
    1964 - 5 years 7 days
    1970 - 4 years 79 days
    1974 - 3 years 255 days
    1979 - 4 years 205 days
    1997 - 5 years 22 days
    2010 - 5 years 1 day

    If we look at all of the elections where the Parliament was shorter than five years then we can see that this was due to circumstances that don't apply now.

    In 1951, Atlee hoped to improve his majority, and did actually improve Labour's share of the vote. In 1970, Heath's victory came as a surprise. In 1974, Heath called the election in the hope of winning a mandate to resolve the union disputes. In 1979, Callaghan's government lost a confidence vote.

    In all the cases where a change in government looked very likely, the incumbent government was deeply unpopular, and the incumbent government was able to do so, the incumbent government continued for the full 5 years.

    If Sunak were to call an election for the autumn - September or October, say - then it would be the earliest election for a government in their position. We should therefore, as a baseline, expect that this Parliament will go the distance, and that the next election will be on December 12th - with one extra leap year ensuring that, although it will be the same number of weeks as the 2005-2010 Parliament, it will be 5 years long, rather than 5 years and 1 day long.

    That is unless there's some sort of extraordinary collapse of the government and there is a general election because no-one can hold the Tory party together to stagger on for a few months.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,982
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    EU condemns Germany for pledging their unilateral support for Ukraine, and not going through the EU mechanisms.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/17/ukraine-russia-war-live-eu-germany-aid/

    Double whammy of fake news shirly? I've been told repeatedly on here that a) EU countries are irredeemably bound by the heavy hand of the EU and b) Germany is a particular laggard in support for Ukraine.
    Germany was a laggard, but has given Ukraine more aid than anyone barring the US.
    (Considerably more than have we.)
    Once DJT gets in that should send the UK up the aid to Ukraine chart.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,167
    Cicero said:

    A cold day of -16 in Tallinn, & a wind chill of about 10 degrees. So I am staying in the office for a bit. It has been quite a week, with the massive security of President Zelensky´s visit to Tallinn on Thursday & all the concomitant solidarity and grim determination being expressed.

    The Estonian government agreed with Poland that Russia intends to launch a direct attack against NATO within 3 years. The reemergence of Trump as a viable candidate, is not much discussed, but there certainly is a lot of thinking going on concerning a possible break down of NATO. The more immediate breakdown of deterrence is also on people´s minds. If a pretty determined counter attack against the Houthis doesn´t work, then it seems that neither Moscow nor Teheran is paying much attention to the wrath of the West- as the further direct attacks on Pakistan by the Iranians shows.

    Then we had an alleged spy being arrested at the University of Tartu yesterday. I had actually met the man in question and it seems that the network he may have been a part of was also targeting the UK and US. So far, just another average day in Tallinn.

    Yet, despite the cold and all the grim news across the middle east, there is a slight spring in the step of some of the key people here. Despite the outrageous threats of the Putin regime, the news is of growing crisis in Russia. Rolling black outs, shortages of food, not just eggs, constant mysterious fires and the gathering sense of break down in the cold.

    The Ukrainians are eking out their reserves, but the Baltic and Nordic States continue their support, and soon the UK, the EU and the US will unlock new money. But before you dismiss the help of the Nordic/Baltic 8, it is worth remembering that their combined economies are larger than that of Russia. Russia is trying to allocate government expenditure of 20-30% of Russian GDP onto the war, but far from intimidating either the Baltic or indeed Ukraine, it is becoming clear that if Putin does this that then much of infrastructure of Russia will fall apart before he can bring any of these resources to bear on the war, and of course much will also be stolen anyway.

    Already whole suburbs even of Moscow are seeing power outages for several hours. The breakdown of the heating systems across Russia is leading to huge problems as cities like Magadan freeze in temperatures of -40. In Bashkortostan, which has seen thousands of their men conscripted and a high percentage now dead, protests are becoming a daily occurrence.

    The Russian Armed forces in Ukraine is suffering disaster after disaster, and it seems increasingly that they have lost, at least for a while, their capability for offensive operations. While the War seems like two tired boxers huddling after a slug fest, the Russians are increasingly facing bigger problems than the Ukrainians.

    So, Time to put on hat, scarf and gloves and wander outside. At least I am not freezing in the cold like a lot of Russians are..

    Good to read this update on Russia's woes.

    Huge worry that Trump 2.0 will give Putin everything he wants though.

    Just feels to me that europe is just not focusing on what Trump's likely win means.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    I’m not sure Sunak has done anything to settle Tory nerves based on this PMQ performance.

    My take is Sunak’s team have dug out some excellent bits of research for him today, and the Tories got behind Sunak and made a lot of noise, both of those things combined to make this one difficult for Starmer.

    Why can’t props be used in Parliament - why can’t a leaflet of Starmer backing Jihadis be held up, when McDonnell could use his personal signed copy of Mao’s red book - props can be used in court and in church, I used picture of a sheep last month.

    Why can’t politicians just sit there looking serious and unimpressed when being ridiculed by their opponents, Starmer was behaving like a grinning beetroot when Sunak was ridiculing him just now. Not a good look.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,298

    "Ever" is a long time. If the Lords becomes elected (a bit of a contradiction in terms but the constitution handles worse), a PM could come from there again.

    But until then, barring emergencies or holding appointments, no, it won't.

    That said, if Sunak literally fell under a bus (or a private jet), and there was a need to appoint a PM before the Tories could elect a new leader, Cameron is now the obvious choice to fill in as a neutral appointment.

    The spirit of Lord Salisbury.

    Has Nick Timothy been enobled yet?
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,492
    pm215 said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT Dolly Parton has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. How do we have so many homes where a child doesn't have a single book?

    When she was head of a local primary, Mrs Capitano gave every kid an individually chosen book for Christmas. For several of them it was the only book they had at home. And this isn't even in a desperately poor area.
    I saw an article the other day that comprehension and retention is much better with physical books than with articles read on screen.

    I read it on screen (maybe The Atlantic?) so inevitably can't recall where...

    I make a point of only reading fiction on my kindle. If I want any other genre, I have to buy it in old skool paper format. Unfortunately, that often means Amazon but I have started looking in charity shops, where you find some absolute gems. I can't find Sled Driver anywhere though 😕
    I always read books on paper; I largely put this down to a forty decade habit being hard to break... Logically I know kindle and the like have a lot of practical advantages (especially for reading in a foreign language where the built in dictionary makes looking up the odd unknown word trivial), but I have too many fond memories of leafing through dead trees to want to change now :-)
    I had a Kindle for about 5 years between 2011 and 2016. When it broke down I decided to go back to old-fashioned books.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,399

    pm215 said:

    Selebian said:

    Dave = Unlected Has-Been!

    House of Lords = House of Unelected Has-Beens!

    That's unfair. The HoL also includes a fair number of never-have-beens and never-will-bes :wink:

    ETA: I have to keep going in and editing to remove double quoting as the OS is recording two clicks for single click (but two distinct clicks, rather than a double click). But only on Windows (where I am now) not on Linux, so not a hardware issue. Also happens outwith PB; very odd. Any ideas?
    Purely a guess, but I would try looking through the Windows mouse settings and especially the accessibility settings -- maybe some sort of setting to help people who have trouble with the timing of a double click has got turned on by accident somehow?
    Yes, that's a thought. The mouse settings include a click-speed adjustment (assuming it is not the single/double issue I mentioned earlier).

    Another possibility is to look for the mouse's own settings, especially with gaming mice.
    Doesn't seem related to single/double click settings nor double click speed - but something odd with touchpad being present, see my other post.

    It wasn't recording a double click, but two distinct single clicks - i.e. a single click on a document would not open it as double click would, but would select it and then de-select it. All very odd, but hopefully resolved.

    Bog standard wired Logitech optical mouse, so no other fancy settings to mess with either.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    pm215 said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT Dolly Parton has sent 5 million books to children in the UK. How do we have so many homes where a child doesn't have a single book?

    When she was head of a local primary, Mrs Capitano gave every kid an individually chosen book for Christmas. For several of them it was the only book they had at home. And this isn't even in a desperately poor area.
    I saw an article the other day that comprehension and retention is much better with physical books than with articles read on screen.

    I read it on screen (maybe The Atlantic?) so inevitably can't recall where...

    I make a point of only reading fiction on my kindle. If I want any other genre, I have to buy it in old skool paper format. Unfortunately, that often means Amazon but I have started looking in charity shops, where you find some absolute gems. I can't find Sled Driver anywhere though 😕
    I always read books on paper; I largely put this down to a forty decade habit being hard to break... Logically I know kindle and the like have a lot of practical advantages (especially for reading in a foreign language where the built in dictionary makes looking up the odd unknown word trivial), but I have too many fond memories of leafing through dead trees to want to change now :-)
    How bloody old are you?! (Unless you're including a sort of cultural inheritance in that habit - though it's one others have broken).

    That said, are kindles still a thing? It's ages since I've seen someone reading one - but then I haven't commuted by public transport for a few years now.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,411
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    🎙️ What do you say to rape victims, who’ve been waiting 4 yrs for their case to come to court , & they see Mr Sunak click his fingers to find 150 new judges?

    🗣️I’m afraid that criticism is a fair one

    Tory MP Danny Kruger on the judges the PM has promised for Rwanda appeals

    https://twitter.com/vicderbyshire/status/1747557144038089152

    I really didn't believe that 150 when you posted it, quite unfairly to you. OTOH there are just over 3.1K judges in E&W (2020 data admittedly) but the point still stands.
    Our senior judge is quite rightly unhappy about the government plan to take over the direction of a significant slice of the judicial system.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/16/chief-justice-criticises-plans-to-recruit-150-judges-to-deal-with-asylum-cases
  • Options
    On topic, FWIW my view is:

    1. Sunak goes within the next 2-3 months.
    2. Hunt will be PM with McVey * as his deputy with the express intention of getting the Conservatives through the GE.
    3. The next long-term leader will then be decided post-GE - probably not immediately but on a 2-3 year timescale

    * I say McVey because Hunt and McVey teamed up for the leadership post-Boris and the thesis is to unite the Blue and Red wall parts of the party. However, it is possible for example Badenoch would fit the pro-'Red Tory' wing.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    Much more likely is that the Tories will remould/rebrand as a hard right movement, I am sorry to say. The trajectory is already clear.

    Trajectories do not hold forever. We shouldn't confuse projection with predictions. After all, Labour was on a steadily leftwards trajectory from about 2005-19 - until it then wasn't. However, I do expect the Tories to continue rightwards on social issues (but not economic ones other than being in favour of 'cutting tax'), for the next 2-3 years at a minimum. Thereafter, who knows? A lot will turn on what Farage and Reform UK want to do, and whether Labour introduces PR (which they won't in a first term unless they seriously underperform and need the Lib Dems, but might well in a second one).
    Why would Labour introduce PR? Stramer opposes it, as does much of the Labour high command and most of its grandees. Given FPP is advantageous to the party, hard to see why it would abolish it!
    Labour conference supports PR; that may tell in time. There's also a belief on the left that PR would benefit the 'progressive cause'. This is pretty wishful thinking, IMO, but it *is* the thinking among many who happily add up Lab+LD+Grn as if they're all shades of the same movement, and who also dismiss the extent to which it would stress both Labour and the Tories, to the benefit of more radical movements (or perhaps not in the case of the Tories, if they fall to a Faragite reverse-takeover).

    FPTP is only beneficial to Labour in the sense that it usually gives them more seats than their share 'deserves'. It's not beneficial in the sense of delivering power - only one Labour leader has won a general election in almost half a century and only two in the last three-quarters. It's given them only five workable majorities in the last twenty elections.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,411

    eek said:

    The Conservative Party Constitution says that the leader of the party has to be a member of the House of Commons - so all this shows is that Nadine does sod all research

    I think Nadine Dorries is shooting to be the UK’s equivalent of Marjorie Taylor Greene.
    We have not quite reached the stage where Nadine and half a dozen mates hold the entire business of the House hostage on a whim - but I see what you mean.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    On topic. It’s impossible for the Government to lose tonight, because if they feel they will lose, they will delay the vote, not proceed and lose, because defeat hurts government credibility and business far more than it would hurt the rebels.

    Sunak will lead the Conservatives into the general election. 100%. Not even a shred of doubt of that.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,255

    Would it be so bad if Call Me Dave is installed after the election as Mad Nad suggests? It would at least restore sanity to the loony bin Tory Party and would give the Tories a fighting chance of regaining power next time. The more I think about it, the more I think it's a genius idea. Go in May, mitigate the losses. Dave installed. Gets to fight a modest Labour majority in five years on Tory-friendly gerrymandered boundaries.

    Wouldn't that lead to a permanent split of the Tory party unless Dave got a big chunk of sensible rightwing Brexiteers inside his big, somewhat piss stained tent?
    Checked my notebook for sensible rightwing Brexiteers and...nope, I've got nothing.
    Details, details.

    But when Bad Enoch – a minister so useless and invisible only political nerds have even heard of her – is favourite, you feel the Tories have to think outside the box.
    Nadine Dorries has also tipped Kemi Badenoch. What price the Mad Nad reverse forecast?
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    On the subject of useful lays, may I suggest that at 3.85 Kemi Badenoch is outstanding value.

    The Minister Pretending To Be In Charge Of The Post Office has done well to keep her head down during the Scandal, but it is sure to catch up with her soon and when it does, it will be hard to believe that price was ever on offer.

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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,560

    On topic, FWIW my view is:

    1. Sunak goes within the next 2-3 months.
    2. Hunt will be PM with McVey * as his deputy with the express intention of getting the Conservatives through the GE.
    3. The next long-term leader will then be decided post-GE - probably not immediately but on a 2-3 year timescale

    * I say McVey because Hunt and McVey teamed up for the leadership post-Boris and the thesis is to unite the Blue and Red wall parts of the party. However, it is possible for example Badenoch would fit the pro-'Red Tory' wing.

    PB seems much enamoured of the idea of caretaker leaders than they actually occur in real life. The strategy you propose is tantamount to admitting defeat at the general election. The party has to at least pretend that they have a plan for the future.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    "Ever" is a long time. If the Lords becomes elected (a bit of a contradiction in terms but the constitution handles worse), a PM could come from there again.

    But until then, barring emergencies or holding appointments, no, it won't.

    That said, if Sunak literally fell under a bus (or a private jet), and there was a need to appoint a PM before the Tories could elect a new leader, Cameron is now the obvious choice to fill in as a neutral appointment.

    On second thoughts, no, he's not. I forgot Theresa May is still an MP - and while Cameron is a senior minister, that would matter less in such a scenario than being able to answer to the Commons.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,609
    edited January 17
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    🎙️ What do you say to rape victims, who’ve been waiting 4 yrs for their case to come to court , & they see Mr Sunak click his fingers to find 150 new judges?

    🗣️I’m afraid that criticism is a fair one

    Tory MP Danny Kruger on the judges the PM has promised for Rwanda appeals

    https://twitter.com/vicderbyshire/status/1747557144038089152

    I really didn't believe that 150 when you posted it, quite unfairly to you. OTOH there are just over 3.1K judges in E&W (2020 data admittedly) but the point still stands.
    Our senior judge is quite rightly unhappy about the government plan to take over the direction of a significant slice of the judicial system.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/16/chief-justice-criticises-plans-to-recruit-150-judges-to-deal-with-asylum-cases
    Hmm. 25 courtrooms to be made available? Presumably FTE. And the kind that can handle possibly recalcitrant prisoners, not your usual civil arbitration office-type setting?
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,983

    On topic, FWIW my view is:

    1. Sunak goes within the next 2-3 months.

    By the traditional method of fisting letters up Brady's shitpipe or by Big Rish just jacking in?

    Is either very likely?
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,000
    HYUFD said:

    Hard to see Tory MPs and members electing the effective leader of the Remain campaign in 2016 if Sunak loses the next GE. Most likely they would pick a Leaver from the Right

    I think this is right, and a Cam coronation would be enormously divisive within the party. It should also be recalled that he is viewed generally very unfavourably and of course brings a lot of baggage.

    The populists will likely find themselves in the ascendancy when we next have a Con leadership election, though frankly a lot will depend on who does and does not retain their seat. A fair few of the gobbier populists are likely to be booted.

    For me Braverman is probably the most likely winner, not least because Fareham is as safe as they come. Badenoch is also safe, but I suspect becoming tainted as a Sunakite.

    Robert Jenrick looks value to me as well - 100/1 at Hill’s!
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,255
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    🎙️ What do you say to rape victims, who’ve been waiting 4 yrs for their case to come to court , & they see Mr Sunak click his fingers to find 150 new judges?

    🗣️I’m afraid that criticism is a fair one

    Tory MP Danny Kruger on the judges the PM has promised for Rwanda appeals

    https://twitter.com/vicderbyshire/status/1747557144038089152

    I really didn't believe that 150 when you posted it, quite unfairly to you. OTOH there are just over 3.1K judges in E&W (2020 data admittedly) but the point still stands.
    Our senior judge is quite rightly unhappy about the government plan to take over the direction of a significant slice of the judicial system.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/16/chief-justice-criticises-plans-to-recruit-150-judges-to-deal-with-asylum-cases
    One thing unremarked on is that the Conservatives seem to have imported from America a taste for novel legal theories and politicising the judiciary.
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