I increasingly give less of a tenth of a half of a fuck about either Gaza or Israel
Israel is a quasi-apartheid state led by a government containing proper fascists, but they are confronting anti semitic islamonazis who genuinely want all Jews dead so what are they meant to do?
Let them finally fight it out to the death, to the end, and try and quarantine them both so they don’t destabilise the world. Is my position. Which is pretty much what it was before October 7 albeit with more nihilistic apathy
Well done @Benpointer - I didn’t enter coz I can’t win (don’t care enough to think about some of the questions) but it looks mighty impressive when tabulated
Interestingly the Biden/Trump dichotomy divides really predictably on political grounds. Nearly all of the few people predicting a Trump victory are on “the right” as far as I can see, and FWIW
This makes me suspect hopecasting, not forecasting
Most people forecast by taking present day trends and projecting them into the future, with a tiny bit of variation around the mean if they're feeling daring. The peripheral stuff is very easily missed.
I don't do it because I simply don't know and I change my mind on betting and forecasts all the time. I don't want to have a position that I feel obligated to defend because I'm a sage if I happen to be right or a Roger/Leondamus if I don't, neither of which would be true.
I know it's boring and a bit of a cop out but i prefer absolute flexibility.
I reserve the right to change my mind and disown my earlier predictions whenever.
But seriously you are not alone among prominent Peers who decided not to enter, and that's absolutely fine of course.
That said, the one thing I do feel confident on predicting is a Labour majority and I'm betting accordingly.
Unless Starmer falls under a bus, and Corbyn comes back, that's happening.
Well depends on who is driving the bus.
Return to Moscow, please.
Corbyn has been much more critical of Putin than any many Tory for years.While they copied up he was calling for an end to the influence Johnson Blair et al were encouraging.
Yeah, so much that he wanted the government to give Putin samples of the Salisbury poison for verification...
He wanted evidence based approach for a short period of time but you must have seen the contrast with the pigs in the Russian Billionaire trough leaders in both parties. If not read zpeyr zoborne hardly a Socialists testaments
I want to die in my sleep like my Grandad, not screaming in terror like his passengers.
I'm getting on a bit now, but I still enjoy sex at 67. I live at 71, so it's no distance.
To be truly effective the punch word should come at the end of the punch line. Viz:
I still enjoy sex at 67. It's no great distance - I live at 71.
Not sure I agree on the mechanics of that particular one. The key revelation is that he's talking about proximity rather than age, so I think end on "distance" rather than "71". It's such a short joke that little turns on it though.
Question for PBers: 100 days on, has anyone significantly changed their views on the situation in Gaza?
I was Team Hamas from Day 1 of the Semitic Military Operation so I haven't changed but I do think it's turning into a bit of a "Are we the baddies?" moment for the countries that have slavishly fallen in line with the US position on Israel.
I was team ceasfire need a negotiated sttlement still am. Get ever more angry at the Genocide Enablers trying to make themselves the victims When they have needed the are we the baddies moment for at least 2 months now.
The problem in Gaza/Israel is much the same as Ukraine/Russia. For a long term ceasefire to work both sides have to want to stop, and occupying forces to accept that they have no right to control another state.
In neither case is that likely in the near future, so calls for ceasefire are just hot air at best, calls for surrender at worst.
I don’t think Ukraine is a close analogue. Israel-Palestine is the latest in a decades long series of clashes, of attack and overreaction, driven by mutual loathing and a seemingly complete lack of empathy by each side towards the other.
The Ukraine war is a territorial war of conquest, unprovoked, by one country that believes the people and culture it is invading are its own kin.
I increasingly give less of a tenth of a half of a fuck about either Gaza or Israel
Israel is a quasi-apartheid state led by a government containing proper fascists, but they are confronting anti semitic islamonazis who genuinely want all Jews dead so what are they meant to do?
Let them finally fight it out to the death, to the end, and try and quarantine them both so they don’t destabilise the world. Is my position. Which is pretty much what it was before October 7 albeit with more nihilistic apathy
The impression I am getting from the media is that the fighting has almost stopped with Israel's military objectives largely achieved. This may be completely wrong and the story might just have fallen down the news agenda but the only violence stories I have seen of late have been Israeli assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders abroad.
Question for PBers: 100 days on, has anyone significantly changed their views on the situation in Gaza?
I was Team Hamas from Day 1 of the Semitic Military Operation so I haven't changed but I do think it's turning into a bit of a "Are we the baddies?" moment for the countries that have slavishly fallen in line with the US position on Israel.
I was team ceasfire need a negotiated sttlement still am. Get ever more angry at the Genocide Enablers trying to make themselves the victims When they have needed the are we the baddies moment for at least 2 months now.
Really? I hadn’t noticed. In fact, your posts led me to think you were still supporting one group of the Genocide Enablers (we also call them ‘Hamas’ which is shorter).
A reminder that anyone who sees heroes in the Middle East needs a trip to Barnard Castle. It is much more a Lord Vetinari situation - ‘There are only bad people, but some of them are on opposite sides.’
"100% attendance has become the obsession of all the political parties, what that distracts from is the issue of whether education – and the environment in which it operates – is fit for purpose."
As I've said before, one of my son's friends is often off school. The lad seems to quite enjoy school, and is quite bright, but IMV the problem is his mum. They have to cycle about a mile into school; mostly off-road along good tracks, but apparently she sleeps late or is ill.
I've offered to drive him in if she's ill, but she's refused. Instead, the lad misses another day of school.
That article goes on a lot about what the state can do, and should be doing, but IMV not enough about parents. If the parents don't care about school, their kids will struggle in life.
Yes, but. Who, and at what threshold, should the state be intervening with poor parenting such as that? A child shouldn't just be written off because the parents can't be arsed. We are storing up huge problems. The parent has a right to refuse help from you. But the child has rights, too. And they can only be enforced by the State. We've become over focussed on parental rights wrt education.
I kind-of agree with you. AIUI the school are trying to help the mum (as I hope I have...), but there are complicating issues in their lives which are probably best left offline. It's hard to know what the 'state' can do; taking the boy into care would be far worse, and the family's issues are complex.
Well done @Benpointer - I didn’t enter coz I can’t win (don’t care enough to think about some of the questions) but it looks mighty impressive when tabulated
Interestingly the Biden/Trump dichotomy divides really predictably on political grounds. Nearly all of the few people predicting a Trump victory are on “the right” as far as I can see, and FWIW
This makes me suspect hopecasting, not forecasting
Most people forecast by taking present day trends and projecting them into the future, with a tiny bit of variation around the mean if they're feeling daring. The peripheral stuff is very easily missed.
I don't do it because I simply don't know and I change my mind on betting and forecasts all the time. I don't want to have a position that I feel obligated to defend because I'm a sage if I happen to be right or a Roger/Leondamus if I don't, neither of which would be true.
I know it's boring and a bit of a cop out but i prefer absolute flexibility.
I reserve the right to change my mind and disown my earlier predictions whenever.
But seriously you are not alone among prominent Peers who decided not to enter, and that's absolutely fine of course.
That said, the one thing I do feel confident on predicting is a Labour majority and I'm betting accordingly.
Unless Starmer falls under a bus, and Corbyn comes back, that's happening.
Well depends on who is driving the bus.
Return to Moscow, please.
Corbyn has been much more critical of Putin than any many Tory for years.While they copied up he was calling for an end to the influence Johnson Blair et al were encouraging.
Yeah, so much that he wanted the government to give Putin samples of the Salisbury poison for verification...
He wanted evidence based approach for a short period of time but you must have seen the contrast with the pigs in the Russian Billionaire trough leaders in both parties. If not read zpeyr zoborne hardly a Socialists testaments
He forget the Soviet Union had fallen and Russia was now run by a right wing autocrat.
Question for PBers: 100 days on, has anyone significantly changed their views on the situation in Gaza?
I was Team Hamas from Day 1 of the Semitic Military Operation so I haven't changed but I do think it's turning into a bit of a "Are we the baddies?" moment for the countries that have slavishly fallen in line with the US position on Israel.
I was team ceasfire need a negotiated sttlement still am. Get ever more angry at the Genocide Enablers trying to make themselves the victims When they have needed the are we the baddies moment for at least 2 months now.
The problem in Gaza/Israel is much the same as Ukraine/Russia. For a long term ceasefire to work both sides have to want to stop, and occupying forces to accept that they have no right to control another state.
In neither case is that likely in the near future, so calls for ceasefire are just hot air at best, calls for surrender at worst.
I don’t think Ukraine is a close analogue. Israel-Palestine is the latest in a decades long series of clashes, of attack and overreaction, driven by mutual loathing and a seemingly complete lack of empathy by each side towards the other.
The Ukraine war is a territorial war of conquest, unprovoked, by one country that believes the people and culture it is invading are its own kin.
Sure, every conflict is different. Ultimately each though is about control of the neighboring state, and determining its economic and military policy.
But ceasefire only happen when both sides want them, and see them as better than fighting on.
Well done @Benpointer - I didn’t enter coz I can’t win (don’t care enough to think about some of the questions) but it looks mighty impressive when tabulated
Interestingly the Biden/Trump dichotomy divides really predictably on political grounds. Nearly all of the few people predicting a Trump victory are on “the right” as far as I can see, and FWIW
This makes me suspect hopecasting, not forecasting
Most people forecast by taking present day trends and projecting them into the future, with a tiny bit of variation around the mean if they're feeling daring. The peripheral stuff is very easily missed.
I don't do it because I simply don't know and I change my mind on betting and forecasts all the time. I don't want to have a position that I feel obligated to defend because I'm a sage if I happen to be right or a Roger/Leondamus if I don't, neither of which would be true.
I know it's boring and a bit of a cop out but i prefer absolute flexibility.
I reserve the right to change my mind and disown my earlier predictions whenever.
But seriously you are not alone among prominent Peers who decided not to enter, and that's absolutely fine of course.
That said, the one thing I do feel confident on predicting is a Labour majority and I'm betting accordingly.
Unless Starmer falls under a bus, and Corbyn comes back, that's happening.
Well depends on who is driving the bus.
Return to Moscow, please.
Corbyn has been much more critical of Putin than any many Tory for years.While they copied up he was calling for an end to the influence Johnson Blair et al were encouraging.
Yeah, so much that he wanted the government to give Putin samples of the Salisbury poison for verification...
He wanted evidence based approach for a short period of time but you must have seen the contrast with the pigs in the Russian Billionaire trough leaders in both parties. If not read zpeyr zoborne hardly a Socialists testaments
Rubbish. What did he expect the Russians to say? "Yes, it was us!" No, they would have said: "Our exclusive tests showed that it was a western Nazi poison!"
Worse, just asking that showed a lack of trust in our guys to do the testing.
Well done @Benpointer - I didn’t enter coz I can’t win (don’t care enough to think about some of the questions) but it looks mighty impressive when tabulated
Interestingly the Biden/Trump dichotomy divides really predictably on political grounds. Nearly all of the few people predicting a Trump victory are on “the right” as far as I can see, and FWIW
This makes me suspect hopecasting, not forecasting
Most people forecast by taking present day trends and projecting them into the future, with a tiny bit of variation around the mean if they're feeling daring. The peripheral stuff is very easily missed.
I don't do it because I simply don't know and I change my mind on betting and forecasts all the time. I don't want to have a position that I feel obligated to defend because I'm a sage if I happen to be right or a Roger/Leondamus if I don't, neither of which would be true.
I know it's boring and a bit of a cop out but i prefer absolute flexibility.
I reserve the right to change my mind and disown my earlier predictions whenever.
But seriously you are not alone among prominent Peers who decided not to enter, and that's absolutely fine of course.
That said, the one thing I do feel confident on predicting is a Labour majority and I'm betting accordingly.
Unless Starmer falls under a bus, and Corbyn comes back, that's happening.
Well depends on who is driving the bus.
Return to Moscow, please.
Corbyn has been much more critical of Putin than any many Tory for years.While they copied up he was calling for an end to the influence Johnson Blair et al were encouraging.
Yeah, so much that he wanted the government to give Putin samples of the Salisbury poison for verification...
He wanted evidence based approach for a short period of time but you must have seen the contrast with the pigs in the Russian Billionaire trough leaders in both parties. If not read zpeyr zoborne hardly a Socialists testaments
I increasingly give less of a tenth of a half of a fuck about either Gaza or Israel
Israel is a quasi-apartheid state led by a government containing proper fascists, but they are confronting anti semitic islamonazis who genuinely want all Jews dead so what are they meant to do?
Let them finally fight it out to the death, to the end, and try and quarantine them both so they don’t destabilise the world. Is my position. Which is pretty much what it was before October 7 albeit with more nihilistic apathy
The impression I am getting from the media is that the fighting has almost stopped with Israel's military objectives largely achieved. This may be completely wrong and the story might just have fallen down the news agenda but the only violence stories I have seen of late have been Israeli assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders abroad.
I increasingly give less of a tenth of a half of a fuck about either Gaza or Israel
Israel is a quasi-apartheid state led by a government containing proper fascists, but they are confronting anti semitic islamonazis who genuinely want all Jews dead so what are they meant to do?
Let them finally fight it out to the death, to the end, and try and quarantine them both so they don’t destabilise the world. Is my position. Which is pretty much what it was before October 7 albeit with more nihilistic apathy
The impression I am getting from the media is that the fighting has almost stopped with Israel's military objectives largely achieved. This may be completely wrong and the story might just have fallen down the news agenda but the only violence stories I have seen of late have been Israeli assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders abroad.
That would be good
I confess I simply filter it all out now. It either washes over me unnoticed or I actively avert my gaze. I’ve seen enough dead people on both sides
That’s probably a failing but there’s only so much you can watch. I’ve kinda got the point that it’s all horrible
It’s all so boring for a start. There are no new arguments. Just generation after generation with the same unending grievances and hatreds
I recall having the same reaction as a teenager to endless bad news from Belfast. The grey little houses and the rough Ulster accents and the ancestral religious loathing and yet another bomb or atrocity. For what? It all felt quite mad and very off putting and I just wanted it to go away
Question for PBers: 100 days on, has anyone significantly changed their views on the situation in Gaza?
For my own part, I started out with quite a bit of sympathy for Israel but an underlying concern that an emotionally driven response would be counterproductive to their long term interests.
Over the past 100 days and seeing the indiscriminate nature of their response I find myself very firmly on the side of Palestinians, even to the extent that I can understand (whilst not morally condoning) widespread support for Hamas. It is also contributing a little to my view that the USA may no longer be a force for good in the world and realistically the least worst set of coattails for UK to hang onto for the next century might be China’s.
The temptation with this conflict is to try and interpret in a 'light v dark, good v evil' way, but I don't think that applies here. Obviously though various actors will try and appeal to this set of emotions to try and further their own interests through the use of propoganda, ie dramatic pictures of dead babies. It is interesting how someone can arrive at the conclusion 'China is less evil than America' as a result of a possibly disproportionate response to a terrorist attack. I would personally say that the stuff that has gone on in Xinjiang is objectively far worse than the situation in Gaza, and far closer to an actual genocide, if a 'good v evil' analysis is applied to world affairs.
There are also some questions that persist about Gaza, ie aren't some of the Muslim countries 'at fault' for not taking in refugees, if there is an attempt to attribute responsibility for the bad humanitarian situation.
Agree that good v evil analysis is futile.
But I think an analysis that looks with open eyes at how isolated the USA and the West is becoming is important. I’m not cheerleading this btw, but I do think the choice by the USA to not put the brakes on Israel when they so easily could do so is a very poor strategic choice.
Add into the mix the instability of the USA currently, and I think we (i.e. Europe) seriously need to think about which of the major powers we hitch ourselves to.
As for not taking in more refugees, I think the argument against enabling ethnic cleansing of Gaza is compelling.
I think what your post does underline, however, is how quickly most small & medium-sized countries will fall under the aegis of China if the USA does ever falter.
It will be about survival and bread & butter will come first, and values a very distant second.
That's why Europe and the UK must both re-arm and, also, do their best to buttress and reinforce the USA.
Apologies, dipping in and out on a busy day.
Fully agree with this, my China comment was a bit provocative. If I thought a realistic alternative was a properly armed Europe (possibly even the anathema of a European Army?) that could stand alone I’d keep well away from any other major power. But I don’t think we’ll do this, at least not in time, and for all it’s faults China seems the least destabilising of the major powers that do exist.
Question for PBers: 100 days on, has anyone significantly changed their views on the situation in Gaza?
I was Team Hamas from Day 1 of the Semitic Military Operation so I haven't changed but I do think it's turning into a bit of a "Are we the baddies?" moment for the countries that have slavishly fallen in line with the US position on Israel.
I was team ceasfire need a negotiated sttlement still am. Get ever more angry at the Genocide Enablers trying to make themselves the victims When they have needed the are we the baddies moment for at least 2 months now.
The problem in Gaza/Israel is much the same as Ukraine/Russia. For a long term ceasefire to work both sides have to want to stop, and occupying forces to accept that they have no right to control another state.
In neither case is that likely in the near future, so calls for ceasefire are just hot air at best, calls for surrender at worst.
I don’t think Ukraine is a close analogue. Israel-Palestine is the latest in a decades long series of clashes, of attack and overreaction, driven by mutual loathing and a seemingly complete lack of empathy by each side towards the other.
The Ukraine war is a territorial war of conquest, unprovoked, by one country that believes the people and culture it is invading are its own kin.
Actually both are left-over colonial wars. Israel-Palestine is the result of Western colonialism appropriating Palestinian land for Jewish settlers since the 19th century. Ukraine is the result of Russia occupying the western lands and forcibly Russufying it, from the 18th century (Poltava) to Soviet times
Question for PBers: 100 days on, has anyone significantly changed their views on the situation in Gaza?
I was Team Hamas from Day 1 of the Semitic Military Operation so I haven't changed but I do think it's turning into a bit of a "Are we the baddies?" moment for the countries that have slavishly fallen in line with the US position on Israel.
I was team ceasfire need a negotiated sttlement still am. Get ever more angry at the Genocide Enablers trying to make themselves the victims When they have needed the are we the baddies moment for at least 2 months now.
Really? I hadn’t noticed. In fact, your posts led me to think you were still supporting one group of the Genocide Enablers (we also call them ‘Hamas’ which is shorter).
A reminder that anyone who sees heroes in the Middle East needs a trip to Barnard Castle. It is much more a Lord Vetinari situation - ‘There are only bad people, but some of them are on opposite sides.’
Recent posts have also indicated that he thinks Russia should get away with the genocide of Ukrainians
What current humour on TV do we think will still be lauded in twenty years?
Really struggling.
From the last decade?
Mortimer and Whitehouse: Gone Fishing, Mum, Motherland, Inside No 9 (although a bit hit and miss)Toast of London/Hollywood, What we do in the Shadows, Ted Lasso. There is rather a lot, but off the top of my head I can't think. I also quite like Upstart Crow, but I am not going to tell anyone.
A couple of good calls from Isam: Detectorists and The Trip.
Motherland is easily the best comedy in years.
Will it have the same effect in twenty years is a moot point. To a certain extent it captures the times and is of its time and milieu (n london motherhood). But then so did Dad's Army and it is repeated weekly and will be for the rest of time.
Remarkably quite a few are BBC commissioned.
In my first year at High School the must watch, discussed at length sitcom of the day was Whatever Happened to the Likely Lads. Fifty years on it still stands the test of time. If Bob was driving an electric Astra rather than a Viva it would work today.
Likely Lads is the greatest of them all. Nothing has surpassed it to date imho.
@Peter_the_Punter: Actually no I hadn't read Vilfredo Pareto, although I know his name in a statistical context. @Cleitophon: fair enough. I'll try to do a piece on the 2024 Finnish presidential election later this month @Jim_Miller: I shall try to read C. Wright Mills' "The Power Elite" and Robert Dahl's "Who Governs" @Northern_Al, @bondegezou: My article and @Malmesbury's were written independently and ignorant of each other and I could not include your comments to that article as mine had already gone off. I apologise for making you repeat. @Sunil_Prasannan: I think he's given a name in the novelization. @slade: is your PhD published? I would like to read it. @kyf_100: You might like to read "End Times" https://www.waterstones.com/book/end-times/peter-turchin//9780141999289 @rottenborough: thatnk you for: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/18/books/review/the-99-percent-matthew-stewart.html @MoonRabbit: I checked my underpants and am not Philomena Cunk. Somebody once wrote a children's book which started "Big Bear was a big bear. Little Bear was a little bear". My sentence “...focussed on the new elite which he calls the New Elite" was a deliberate joke based on that. @MoonRabbit: "Hasn’t taught me anything yet though". Fair enough. The intent was to present different definitions of "the elite". Given the size of the task it was obviously too short and covered too little. Best I could do in the time and size, apologies
This article was submitted as an early draft and unsourced. Illustrations, diagrams and points from your comments will be added and this expanded version presented to you backstage at a later date.
Once again, thank you: your contributions will make the work much better and has hopefully engaged your interest. Thanks again to @TSE and @rcs1000 for publishing it.
I’m so sorry Viewcode, the not learnt anything yet was when I’d only read two sections in half hour by watching the Toon game at same time and getting distracted, I did learn from it! Apart from calling you a woman, I think I made two relevant points, and I couldn’t have made them if not learning something from all this discussion. Firstly, how can there be any discussion or theory about elites which doesn’t include education systems. There was the joke in Ghosts when Julian said he wasn’t first day nervous entering parliament because all his friends from university were there too, and he wan’t nervous about going to university because all his friends from school were there too. Secondly, whilst we use word “new”for elites, are they not “old elites in a modern setting”. After Yes Minister we shouldn’t think it’s politicians who come up with cultural changes. For a long time power was centralised, I made reference to British empire run by centralised civil service, but if the culture is to decentralise that power, what would have been career civil servants can now pop in and out of different type of decentralised landscape, raking up even more money and gongs than ever before - with zero accountability, that it being unrelated to performance comes direct from past too.
The British Empire is a bloody good thing.
Without it we wouldn't have the USA as a global hegemon buttressing us, or the United Nations, and autocracy would have continued to be the human experience.
I increasingly give less of a tenth of a half of a fuck about either Gaza or Israel
Israel is a quasi-apartheid state led by a government containing proper fascists, but they are confronting anti semitic islamonazis who genuinely want all Jews dead so what are they meant to do?
Let them finally fight it out to the death, to the end, and try and quarantine them both so they don’t destabilise the world. Is my position. Which is pretty much what it was before October 7 albeit with more nihilistic apathy
The impression I am getting from the media is that the fighting has almost stopped with Israel's military objectives largely achieved. This may be completely wrong and the story might just have fallen down the news agenda but the only violence stories I have seen of late have been Israeli assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders abroad.
If 30 deaths are newsworthy I think 100 or so a day is probably overstating it but it may be that my ignorance simply reflects the loss of newsworthiness of such stories reflecting in turn our pitiful concentration span.
Question for PBers: 100 days on, has anyone significantly changed their views on the situation in Gaza?
For my own part, I started out with quite a bit of sympathy for Israel but an underlying concern that an emotionally driven response would be counterproductive to their long term interests.
Over the past 100 days and seeing the indiscriminate nature of their response I find myself very firmly on the side of Palestinians, even to the extent that I can understand (whilst not morally condoning) widespread support for Hamas. It is also contributing a little to my view that the USA may no longer be a force for good in the world and realistically the least worst set of coattails for UK to hang onto for the next century might be China’s.
That's been largely my evolution on Israel/Gaza too, though I'm not sure about the last sentence - in general I think that attaching to anyone's coattails is a recipe for disaster, sooner or later..
It’s been rather upsetting seeing Israel seemingly abandoning any pretence of following international law and acting as thuggishly as we’ve got used to from Russia and some of its Middle East neighbours.
What I can never stand though is the enemy’s enemy is my friend attitude of some in the West, who have taken to lauding some pretty ugly organisations including Iran’s proxies and even the Syrian regime.
As for China…nope.
This type of thinking amongst the well meaning left ('China is the answer, we just won't think about the Uighurs'), along with sympathy for Islamic extremism, could well be added another bit of the 'thinking persons case for Trump'. It is seen by some as an alternative to the the self imposed extinction of western civilisation.
The Cambodians are living well, at least some of them - after decades of despair and horror
That is the best possible revenge on Pol Pot and all his sicko fucktard Maoist commie friends
The likes of Vietnam and Cambodia seem to be able to recover from war in a way that African countries haven't been able to. Interesting.
I would disagree. For example Algeria, Uganda, Rwanda, Namibia have all recovered as well as Cambodia, and a case can be made for Angola and Mozambique too.
The Cambodians are living well, at least some of them - after decades of despair and horror
That is the best possible revenge on Pol Pot and all his sicko fucktard Maoist commie friends
The likes of Vietnam and Cambodia seem to be able to recover from war in a way that African countries haven't been able to. Interesting.
They are both smart resourceful peoples with a long and proud history of civilisation - Cambodia obviously goes back to Angkor (one of the greatest civilisations in history) and Vietnam is at least 1000 years old (with a Chinese-colonial history 1000 years prior to that).
They have alphabets and cuisines and literatures and artistic traditions. I’ve been struck on this trip how beautiful young Khmer women (and they are notably pretty) look EXACTLY like the apsaras - the famously erotic royal concubine dancers - carved on the many stone friezes of Angkor
Can any of that be said of any sub Saharan African society? Sadly, I don’t think so
Nigel Farage could beat a Conservative candidate by 10 points if he stood to become a Reform UK MP, a poll suggests.
A survey carried out by Survation in the Essex constituency of Clacton found that the former Ukip and Brexit Party leader would pick up 37 per cent of the vote compared to 27 per cent for the Conservative incumbent if he stood as a Reform candidate.
The figures exclude the 30 per cent of people who said they were undecided or refused to state their preference.
The Cambodians are living well, at least some of them - after decades of despair and horror
That is the best possible revenge on Pol Pot and all his sicko fucktard Maoist commie friends
The likes of Vietnam and Cambodia seem to be able to recover from war in a way that African countries haven't been able to. Interesting.
I would disagree. For example Algeria, Uganda, Rwanda, Namibia have all recovered as well as Cambodia, and a case can be made for Angola and Mozambique too.
My daughter and her new husband flew off to Uganda for their belated Honeymoon yesterday. She is fascinated by birds and wants to see the gorillas. Hard to imagine Uganda as a holiday destination even 10 years ago.
I increasingly give less of a tenth of a half of a fuck about either Gaza or Israel
Israel is a quasi-apartheid state led by a government containing proper fascists, but they are confronting anti semitic islamonazis who genuinely want all Jews dead so what are they meant to do?
Let them finally fight it out to the death, to the end, and try and quarantine them both so they don’t destabilise the world. Is my position. Which is pretty much what it was before October 7 albeit with more nihilistic apathy
The impression I am getting from the media is that the fighting has almost stopped with Israel's military objectives largely achieved. This may be completely wrong and the story might just have fallen down the news agenda but the only violence stories I have seen of late have been Israeli assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders abroad.
If 30 deaths are newsworthy I think 100 or so a day is probably overstating it but it may be that my ignorance simply reflects the loss of newsworthiness of such stories reflecting in turn our pitiful concentration span.
Probably the indirect deaths due to destruction of health and sanitation infrastructure in Gaza exceed the violent deaths, and as always fall hardest on the weakest.
The Cambodians are living well, at least some of them - after decades of despair and horror
That is the best possible revenge on Pol Pot and all his sicko fucktard Maoist commie friends
The likes of Vietnam and Cambodia seem to be able to recover from war in a way that African countries haven't been able to. Interesting.
I would disagree. For example Algeria, Uganda, Rwanda, Namibia have all recovered as well as Cambodia, and a case can be made for Angola and Mozambique too.
Since Ms Vennells was at the Post Office 2012-2019, and the Cabinet Office 2019-2020 until she resigned of her own volition, some responsibility seems to attach to the current administration.
That she got made a non-exec at the Cabinet Office, well after the details of the scandal were in plain sight, continue to baffle. She must have some good connections of which we are unaware.
#NU10K
We live in a world, where after Charlie Prince crashed Citi Bank, he complained of his circumstances.
He was given only $91 million dollars to go home with, and found it difficult to find the replacement position. That was, in his words, “owed to a man of my stature”.
Vennells was *owed* a CBE and some high quality non-exec roles.
I increasingly give less of a tenth of a half of a fuck about either Gaza or Israel
Israel is a quasi-apartheid state led by a government containing proper fascists, but they are confronting anti semitic islamonazis who genuinely want all Jews dead so what are they meant to do?
Let them finally fight it out to the death, to the end, and try and quarantine them both so they don’t destabilise the world. Is my position. Which is pretty much what it was before October 7 albeit with more nihilistic apathy
The impression I am getting from the media is that the fighting has almost stopped with Israel's military objectives largely achieved. This may be completely wrong and the story might just have fallen down the news agenda but the only violence stories I have seen of late have been Israeli assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders abroad.
In that case the miltary strike against Gaza has released precisely zero hostages and directly killed three of them. On Bibi's own measure of success it must therefore be a massive failure (to go with the othe ones).
There still seem to be quite a few Gazan civvies dying by HE every day, though I accept that may not be defined as 'fighting'.
What current humour on TV do we think will still be lauded in twenty years?
Really struggling.
Succession. Derry Girls.
Derry Girls yes.
Succession? Nope, that's drama.
No, Succession is satire, it's written by a comedy writer. It is hilariously funny.
It has a budget per episode that would make series of all the other shows we have talked about, combined.
It is a big-budget drama with some funny lines.
I have tried 3 times now given the enthusiasm for it on here but I am yet to get past the end of episode 1. Deeply unpleasant people behaving unpleasantly. Its obviously just me.
Nigel Farage could beat a Conservative candidate by 10 points if he stood to become a Reform UK MP, a poll suggests.
A survey carried out by Survation in the Essex constituency of Clacton found that the former Ukip and Brexit Party leader would pick up 37 per cent of the vote compared to 27 per cent for the Conservative incumbent if he stood as a Reform candidate.
The figures exclude the 30 per cent of people who said they were undecided or refused to state their preference.
Telegraph
Be the one seat you'd get Labour and LibDems voting Tory tactically to keep him out.
I increasingly give less of a tenth of a half of a fuck about either Gaza or Israel
Israel is a quasi-apartheid state led by a government containing proper fascists, but they are confronting anti semitic islamonazis who genuinely want all Jews dead so what are they meant to do?
Let them finally fight it out to the death, to the end, and try and quarantine them both so they don’t destabilise the world. Is my position. Which is pretty much what it was before October 7 albeit with more nihilistic apathy
The impression I am getting from the media is that the fighting has almost stopped with Israel's military objectives largely achieved. This may be completely wrong and the story might just have fallen down the news agenda but the only violence stories I have seen of late have been Israeli assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders abroad.
If 30 deaths are newsworthy I think 100 or so a day is probably overstating it but it may be that my ignorance simply reflects the loss of newsworthiness of such stories reflecting in turn our pitiful concentration span.
Probably the indirect deaths due to destruction of health and sanitation infrastructure in Gaza exceed the violent deaths, and as always fall hardest on the weakest.
Yes, I would agree that there is an ongoing humanitarian tragedy going on. Even Israel (and it pains me to say "even" because I am instinctively sympathetic) is feeling the heat on that one.
What current humour on TV do we think will still be lauded in twenty years?
Really struggling.
From the last decade?
Mortimer and Whitehouse: Gone Fishing, Mum, Motherland, Inside No 9 (although a bit hit and miss)Toast of London/Hollywood, What we do in the Shadows, Ted Lasso. There is rather a lot, but off the top of my head I can't think. I also quite like Upstart Crow, but I am not going to tell anyone.
A couple of good calls from Isam: Detectorists and The Trip.
Motherland is easily the best comedy in years.
Will it have the same effect in twenty years is a moot point. To a certain extent it captures the times and is of its time and milieu (n london motherhood). But then so did Dad's Army and it is repeated weekly and will be for the rest of time.
Remarkably quite a few are BBC commissioned.
In my first year at High School the must watch, discussed at length sitcom of the day was Whatever Happened to the Likely Lads. Fifty years on it still stands the test of time. If Bob was driving an electric Astra rather than a Viva it would work today.
Had had a pre-facelift Chevette in the second series, though regrettably not a HSR.
That was the movie featuring too, the lovely Mary Tamm.
Bob still has the blue HB Viva in both series and the Christmas Special. In the Christmas Special Terry passes his driving test in an Austin 1300 "remember the hand signals" and Terry's minicab is a Hillman Minx (Hunter).
Interesting how so many more posters predict Biden as POTUS, despite Trump being the current favourite.
Factoring in Trump's coming convictions?
That must be it as the bookies can't be aware of DJT's legal problems.
Bookies wouldn't worry about that they'd base their odds on the way punters are betting. So PB posters disagree with most punters. The question is which ones are right.
Since Ms Vennells was at the Post Office 2012-2019, and the Cabinet Office 2019-2020 until she resigned of her own volition, some responsibility seems to attach to the current administration.
That she got made a non-exec at the Cabinet Office, well after the details of the scandal were in plain sight, continue to baffle. She must have some good connections of which we are unaware.
#NU10K
We live in a world, where after Charlie Prince crashed Citi Bank, he complained of his circumstances.
He was given only $91 million dollars to go home with, and found it difficult to find the replacement position. That was, in his words, “owed to a man of my stature”.
Vennells was *owed* a CBE and some high quality non-exec roles.
It was given to her whilst still in job, which is unusual way of doing it? Cynic might say is was reward from political masters for keeping lid on scandal and themselves out of it.
Well done @Benpointer - I didn’t enter coz I can’t win (don’t care enough to think about some of the questions) but it looks mighty impressive when tabulated
Interestingly the Biden/Trump dichotomy divides really predictably on political grounds. Nearly all of the few people predicting a Trump victory are on “the right” as far as I can see, and FWIW
This makes me suspect hopecasting, not forecasting
Most people forecast by taking present day trends and projecting them into the future, with a tiny bit of variation around the mean if they're feeling daring. The peripheral stuff is very easily missed.
I don't do it because I simply don't know and I change my mind on betting and forecasts all the time. I don't want to have a position that I feel obligated to defend because I'm a sage if I happen to be right or a Roger/Leondamus if I don't, neither of which would be true.
I know it's boring and a bit of a cop out but i prefer absolute flexibility.
I reserve the right to change my mind and disown my earlier predictions whenever.
But seriously you are not alone among prominent Peers who decided not to enter, and that's absolutely fine of course.
That said, the one thing I do feel confident on predicting is a Labour majority and I'm betting accordingly.
Unless Starmer falls under a bus, and Corbyn comes back, that's happening.
Well depends on who is driving the bus.
Return to Moscow, please.
Corbyn has been much more critical of Putin than any many Tory for years.While they copied up he was calling for an end to the influence Johnson Blair et al were encouraging.
Yeah, so much that he wanted the government to give Putin samples of the Salisbury poison for verification...
He wanted evidence based approach for a short period of time but you must have seen the contrast with the pigs in the Russian Billionaire trough leaders in both parties. If not read zpeyr zoborne hardly a Socialists testaments
He forget the Soviet Union had fallen and Russia was now run by a right wing autocrat.
“Is there still a Tsar?”
“Yes, but he is not a Romanoff. It’s another family. He is much more powerful, and much more despotic.”
The Cambodians are living well, at least some of them - after decades of despair and horror
That is the best possible revenge on Pol Pot and all his sicko fucktard Maoist commie friends
The likes of Vietnam and Cambodia seem to be able to recover from war in a way that African countries haven't been able to. Interesting.
I would disagree. For example Algeria, Uganda, Rwanda, Namibia have all recovered as well as Cambodia, and a case can be made for Angola and Mozambique too.
My daughter and her new husband flew off to Uganda for their belated Honeymoon yesterday. She is fascinated by birds and wants to see the gorillas. Hard to imagine Uganda as a holiday destination even 10 years ago.
Uganda has some of the best birding in the world, so a good choice, and their National Parks are recovering well, I hear.
There is so much more to Africa though than natural history and landscapes, much as I love those. Africa has vibrant culture and art scenes in many countries and is endlessly creative and surprising. Less so in cityscapes and architecture, but more so in the human arts.
If the last half century was dominated by Asia, the next half century will be dominated by Africa and its diaspora. By the end of the century Africa is most likely to be the youngest and most populous continent.
Operation Fat Fuck requires that I go and exercise. So used a lull in the weather to go for a walk. Having conquered the sea (dodging round boulders on the shoreline) I found myself on 120m up on the cliff top path looking at this weather front approaching at c. 30mph. And when it hit me side-on? Leaning into it a 45 degrees to stand up, with snow being blown completely horizontally past my face.
The Cambodians are living well, at least some of them - after decades of despair and horror
That is the best possible revenge on Pol Pot and all his sicko fucktard Maoist commie friends
The likes of Vietnam and Cambodia seem to be able to recover from war in a way that African countries haven't been able to. Interesting.
I would disagree. For example Algeria, Uganda, Rwanda, Namibia have all recovered as well as Cambodia, and a case can be made for Angola and Mozambique too.
That’s really quite a stretch. Algeria perhaps
I had a great little mini break in Algiers a couple of years ago. Very attractive city with a French feel and architecture plus an unspoilt old medina, lovely Mediterranean landscape and vegetation, pretty coastline and some great (and completely under-touristed) Roman ruins an hour or so down the coast. Decent food.
It hasn’t really discovered boutique hotels or airbnb yet though, but the biggest downside is that it remains tricky to get alcohol. You have to seek it out in a limited number of restaurants and hotels.
Nigel Farage could beat a Conservative candidate by 10 points if he stood to become a Reform UK MP, a poll suggests.
A survey carried out by Survation in the Essex constituency of Clacton found that the former Ukip and Brexit Party leader would pick up 37 per cent of the vote compared to 27 per cent for the Conservative incumbent if he stood as a Reform candidate.
The figures exclude the 30 per cent of people who said they were undecided or refused to state their preference.
Telegraph
Be the one seat you'd get Labour and LibDems voting Tory tactically to keep him out.
The Tories could do worse than offer Nige the seat as Tory candidate.
Dave Tattoos in Clacton would be over the moon. You might have some explaining to do on the doorsteps of Totnes.
@Peter_the_Punter: Actually no I hadn't read Vilfredo Pareto, although I know his name in a statistical context. @Cleitophon: fair enough. I'll try to do a piece on the 2024 Finnish presidential election later this month @Jim_Miller: I shall try to read C. Wright Mills' "The Power Elite" and Robert Dahl's "Who Governs" @Northern_Al, @bondegezou: My article and @Malmesbury's were written independently and ignorant of each other and I could not include your comments to that article as mine had already gone off. I apologise for making you repeat. @Sunil_Prasannan: I think he's given a name in the novelization. @slade: is your PhD published? I would like to read it. @kyf_100: You might like to read "End Times" https://www.waterstones.com/book/end-times/peter-turchin//9780141999289 @rottenborough: thatnk you for: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/18/books/review/the-99-percent-matthew-stewart.html @MoonRabbit: I checked my underpants and am not Philomena Cunk. Somebody once wrote a children's book which started "Big Bear was a big bear. Little Bear was a little bear". My sentence “...focussed on the new elite which he calls the New Elite" was a deliberate joke based on that. @MoonRabbit: "Hasn’t taught me anything yet though". Fair enough. The intent was to present different definitions of "the elite". Given the size of the task it was obviously too short and covered too little. Best I could do in the time and size, apologies
This article was submitted as an early draft and unsourced. Illustrations, diagrams and points from your comments will be added and this expanded version presented to you backstage at a later date.
Once again, thank you: your contributions will make the work much better and has hopefully engaged your interest. Thanks again to @TSE and @rcs1000 for publishing it.
I’m so sorry Viewcode, the not learnt anything yet was when I’d only read two sections in half hour by watching the Toon game at same time and getting distracted, I did learn from it! Apart from calling you a woman, I think I made two relevant points, and I couldn’t have made them if not learning something from all this discussion. Firstly, how can there be any discussion or theory about elites which doesn’t include education systems. There was the joke in Ghosts when Julian said he wasn’t first day nervous entering parliament because all his friends from university were there too, and he wan’t nervous about going to university because all his friends from school were there too. Secondly, whilst we use word “new”for elites, are they not “old elites in a modern setting”. After Yes Minister we shouldn’t think it’s politicians who come up with cultural changes. For a long time power was centralised, I made reference to British empire run by centralised civil service, but if the culture is to decentralise that power, what would have been career civil servants can now pop in and out of different type of decentralised landscape, raking up even more money and gongs than ever before - with zero accountability, that it being unrelated to performance comes direct from past too.
The British Empire is a bloody good thing.
Without it we wouldn't have the USA as a global hegemon buttressing us, or the United Nations, and autocracy would have continued to be the human experience.
😏 I didn’t say it wasn’t. Quite the opposite, said was the British Empire - when Global.Britain was indeed Global - administered by just a department of 20k civil servants, centralised Soviet Union style, not private with one shareholder - the government - NU10K style.
Since Ms Vennells was at the Post Office 2012-2019, and the Cabinet Office 2019-2020 until she resigned of her own volition, some responsibility seems to attach to the current administration.
That she got made a non-exec at the Cabinet Office, well after the details of the scandal were in plain sight, continue to baffle. She must have some good connections of which we are unaware.
#NU10K
We live in a world, where after Charlie Prince crashed Citi Bank, he complained of his circumstances.
He was given only $91 million dollars to go home with, and found it difficult to find the replacement position. That was, in his words, “owed to a man of my stature”.
Vennells was *owed* a CBE and some high quality non-exec roles.
It was given to her whilst still in job, which is unusual way of doing it? Cynic might say is was reward from political masters for keeping lid on scandal and themselves out of it.
Has any PBer admitted to being NU10K?
The broad definition seems to cover most, or all of us.
The Cambodians are living well, at least some of them - after decades of despair and horror
That is the best possible revenge on Pol Pot and all his sicko fucktard Maoist commie friends
The likes of Vietnam and Cambodia seem to be able to recover from war in a way that African countries haven't been able to. Interesting.
I would disagree. For example Algeria, Uganda, Rwanda, Namibia have all recovered as well as Cambodia, and a case can be made for Angola and Mozambique too.
My daughter and her new husband flew off to Uganda for their belated Honeymoon yesterday. She is fascinated by birds and wants to see the gorillas. Hard to imagine Uganda as a holiday destination even 10 years ago.
Uganda has some of the best birding in the world, so a good choice, and their National Parks are recovering well, I hear.
There is so much more to Africa though than natural history and landscapes, much as I love those. Africa has vibrant culture and art scenes in many countries and is endlessly creative and surprising. Less so in cityscapes and architecture, but more so in the human arts.
If the last half century was dominated by Asia, the next half century will be dominated by Africa and its diaspora. By the end of the century Africa is most likely to be the youngest and most populous continent.
It's a continent that I have never actually been to. My daughter's last holiday was in Algeria which included some epic camel trips into the Sahara. I admire their sense of adventure from a safe distance.
Since Ms Vennells was at the Post Office 2012-2019, and the Cabinet Office 2019-2020 until she resigned of her own volition, some responsibility seems to attach to the current administration.
That she got made a non-exec at the Cabinet Office, well after the details of the scandal were in plain sight, continue to baffle. She must have some good connections of which we are unaware.
#NU10K
We live in a world, where after Charlie Prince crashed Citi Bank, he complained of his circumstances.
He was given only $91 million dollars to go home with, and found it difficult to find the replacement position. That was, in his words, “owed to a man of my stature”.
Vennells was *owed* a CBE and some high quality non-exec roles.
It was given to her whilst still in job, which is unusual way of doing it? Cynic might say is was reward from political masters for keeping lid on scandal and themselves out of it.
Has any PBer admitted to being NU10K?
I fit the Goodwin profile but with NONE of the influence.
Operation Fat Fuck requires that I go and exercise. So used a lull in the weather to go for a walk. Having conquered the sea (dodging round boulders on the shoreline) I found myself on 120m up on the cliff top path looking at this weather front approaching at c. 30mph. And when it hit me side-on? Leaning into it a 45 degrees to stand up, with snow being blown completely horizontally past my face.
It was epic!
I love real proper weather. Its invigorating. Snow just starting here.
Donald J. Trump has the backing of 48 percent of likely caucusgoers ahead of Monday’s election, a commanding lead for the former president, according to the Iowa Poll by The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom.
Nikki Haley is narrowly leading the battle for second place over Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, 20 percent to 16 percent, according to the survey, which was released on Saturday evening.
Since Ms Vennells was at the Post Office 2012-2019, and the Cabinet Office 2019-2020 until she resigned of her own volition, some responsibility seems to attach to the current administration.
That she got made a non-exec at the Cabinet Office, well after the details of the scandal were in plain sight, continue to baffle. She must have some good connections of which we are unaware.
#NU10K
We live in a world, where after Charlie Prince crashed Citi Bank, he complained of his circumstances.
He was given only $91 million dollars to go home with, and found it difficult to find the replacement position. That was, in his words, “owed to a man of my stature”.
Vennells was *owed* a CBE and some high quality non-exec roles.
It was given to her whilst still in job, which is unusual way of doing it? Cynic might say is was reward from political masters for keeping lid on scandal and themselves out of it.
Has any PBer admitted to being NU10K?
A couple seem to be alarmed at the idea of being held responsible for things they are responsible for…
Operation Fat Fuck requires that I go and exercise. So used a lull in the weather to go for a walk. Having conquered the sea (dodging round boulders on the shoreline) I found myself on 120m up on the cliff top path looking at this weather front approaching at c. 30mph. And when it hit me side-on? Leaning into it a 45 degrees to stand up, with snow being blown completely horizontally past my face.
It was epic!
That’s a rather disrespectful way to refer to Mrs RP.
That poll has to be more of a disappointment to Labour fans, and quite positive for Tories.
Ignore the smaller than other pollsters 14% margin because this is adjusted according to future swing-back, it’s the direction of travel, the movement in share scores we take from it. whilst Tories have dropped in most polls this year, the Tories didn’t in this one. Whilst Labour only move up one from a low of just 40%. Despite such a huge gap between Opinium polls, where the average graff markably has Labour souring up and Conservatives clearly down, this poll from respected pollster didn’t find this.
Operation Fat Fuck requires that I go and exercise. So used a lull in the weather to go for a walk. Having conquered the sea (dodging round boulders on the shoreline) I found myself on 120m up on the cliff top path looking at this weather front approaching at c. 30mph. And when it hit me side-on? Leaning into it a 45 degrees to stand up, with snow being blown completely horizontally past my face.
It was epic!
I love real proper weather. Its invigorating. Snow just starting here.
The Cambodians are living well, at least some of them - after decades of despair and horror
That is the best possible revenge on Pol Pot and all his sicko fucktard Maoist commie friends
The likes of Vietnam and Cambodia seem to be able to recover from war in a way that African countries haven't been able to. Interesting.
I would disagree. For example Algeria, Uganda, Rwanda, Namibia have all recovered as well as Cambodia, and a case can be made for Angola and Mozambique too.
My daughter and her new husband flew off to Uganda for their belated Honeymoon yesterday. She is fascinated by birds and wants to see the gorillas. Hard to imagine Uganda as a holiday destination even 10 years ago.
Uganda has some of the best birding in the world, so a good choice, and their National Parks are recovering well, I hear.
There is so much more to Africa though than natural history and landscapes, much as I love those. Africa has vibrant culture and art scenes in many countries and is endlessly creative and surprising. Less so in cityscapes and architecture, but more so in the human arts.
If the last half century was dominated by Asia, the next half century will be dominated by Africa and its diaspora. By the end of the century Africa is most likely to be the youngest and most populous continent.
It's a continent that I have never actually been to. My daughter's last holiday was in Algeria which included some epic camel trips into the Sahara. I admire their sense of adventure from a safe distance.
I finally got to Africa last year when I went to Morocco which was a great couple of weeks. (Unless you count Malta as Africa, it is apparently on the African tectonic plate and of course they have an Arab heritage)
The Cambodians are living well, at least some of them - after decades of despair and horror
That is the best possible revenge on Pol Pot and all his sicko fucktard Maoist commie friends
The likes of Vietnam and Cambodia seem to be able to recover from war in a way that African countries haven't been able to. Interesting.
I would disagree. For example Algeria, Uganda, Rwanda, Namibia have all recovered as well as Cambodia, and a case can be made for Angola and Mozambique too.
My daughter and her new husband flew off to Uganda for their belated Honeymoon yesterday. She is fascinated by birds and wants to see the gorillas. Hard to imagine Uganda as a holiday destination even 10 years ago.
Uganda has some of the best birding in the world, so a good choice, and their National Parks are recovering well, I hear.
There is so much more to Africa though than natural history and landscapes, much as I love those. Africa has vibrant culture and art scenes in many countries and is endlessly creative and surprising. Less so in cityscapes and architecture, but more so in the human arts.
If the last half century was dominated by Asia, the next half century will be dominated by Africa and its diaspora. By the end of the century Africa is most likely to be the youngest and most populous continent.
No, the next half century will be China yielding to India. The potential of India and its surrounding satellites is enormous. It will be the rising power from 2030-40
That poll has to be more of a disappointment to Labour fans, and quite positive for Tories.
Ignore the smaller than other pollsters 14% margin because this is adjusted according to future swing-back, it’s the direction of travel, the movement in share scores we take from it. whilst Tories have dropped in most polls this year, the Tories didn’t in this one. Whilst Labour only move up one from a low of just 40%. Despite such a huge gap between Opinium polls, where the average graff markably has Labour souring up and Conservatives clearly down, this poll from respected pollster didn’t find this.
Operation Fat Fuck requires that I go and exercise. So used a lull in the weather to go for a walk. Having conquered the sea (dodging round boulders on the shoreline) I found myself on 120m up on the cliff top path looking at this weather front approaching at c. 30mph. And when it hit me side-on? Leaning into it a 45 degrees to stand up, with snow being blown completely horizontally past my face.
It was epic!
I love real proper weather. Its invigorating. Snow just starting here.
Since Ms Vennells was at the Post Office 2012-2019, and the Cabinet Office 2019-2020 until she resigned of her own volition, some responsibility seems to attach to the current administration.
That she got made a non-exec at the Cabinet Office, well after the details of the scandal were in plain sight, continue to baffle. She must have some good connections of which we are unaware.
#NU10K
We live in a world, where after Charlie Prince crashed Citi Bank, he complained of his circumstances.
He was given only $91 million dollars to go home with, and found it difficult to find the replacement position. That was, in his words, “owed to a man of my stature”.
Vennells was *owed* a CBE and some high quality non-exec roles.
It was given to her whilst still in job, which is unusual way of doing it? Cynic might say is was reward from political masters for keeping lid on scandal and themselves out of it.
Has any PBer admitted to being NU10K?
I fit the Goodwin profile but with NONE of the influence.
The Cambodians are living well, at least some of them - after decades of despair and horror
That is the best possible revenge on Pol Pot and all his sicko fucktard Maoist commie friends
The likes of Vietnam and Cambodia seem to be able to recover from war in a way that African countries haven't been able to. Interesting.
I would disagree. For example Algeria, Uganda, Rwanda, Namibia have all recovered as well as Cambodia, and a case can be made for Angola and Mozambique too.
That’s really quite a stretch. Algeria perhaps
I had a great little mini break in Algiers a couple of years ago. Very attractive city with a French feel and architecture plus an unspoilt old medina, lovely Mediterranean landscape and vegetation, pretty coastline and some great (and completely under-touristed) Roman ruins an hour or so down the coast. Decent food.
It hasn’t really discovered boutique hotels or airbnb yet though, but the biggest downside is that it remains tricky to get alcohol. You have to seek it out in a limited number of restaurants and hotels.
Yes I really want to go, Likewise Libya
The booze thing is a bit off putting, but as I now drink less I might cope better
That poll has to be more of a disappointment to Labour fans, and quite positive for Tories.
Ignore the smaller than other pollsters 14% margin because this is adjusted according to future swing-back, it’s the direction of travel, the movement in share scores we take from it. whilst Tories have dropped in most polls this year, the Tories didn’t in this one. Whilst Labour only move up one from a low of just 40%. Despite such a huge gap between Opinium polls, where the average graff markably has Labour souring up and Conservatives clearly down, this poll from respected pollster didn’t find this.
Could Labour only poll 40/41 or less at the next general election, a majority only achieved by Tories failing to recover beyond 29%?
"That poll has to be more of a disappointment to Labour fans, and quite positive for Tories. Ignore the smaller than other pollsters 14% margin because this is adjusted according to future swing-back, it’s the direction of travel..."
??
The direction of travel in this poll is the Labour lead increasing. They must be gutted.
Can somebody explain in clear terms how a poll which includes swingback, showing a Labour lead of 14% is "bad" for Labour? That would produce by my reckoning, close to the largest Labour majority in history.
The Cambodians are living well, at least some of them - after decades of despair and horror
That is the best possible revenge on Pol Pot and all his sicko fucktard Maoist commie friends
The likes of Vietnam and Cambodia seem to be able to recover from war in a way that African countries haven't been able to. Interesting.
I would disagree. For example Algeria, Uganda, Rwanda, Namibia have all recovered as well as Cambodia, and a case can be made for Angola and Mozambique too.
My daughter and her new husband flew off to Uganda for their belated Honeymoon yesterday. She is fascinated by birds and wants to see the gorillas. Hard to imagine Uganda as a holiday destination even 10 years ago.
Uganda has some of the best birding in the world, so a good choice, and their National Parks are recovering well, I hear.
There is so much more to Africa though than natural history and landscapes, much as I love those. Africa has vibrant culture and art scenes in many countries and is endlessly creative and surprising. Less so in cityscapes and architecture, but more so in the human arts.
If the last half century was dominated by Asia, the next half century will be dominated by Africa and its diaspora. By the end of the century Africa is most likely to be the youngest and most populous continent.
No, the next half century will be China yielding to India. The potential of India and its surrounding satellites is enormous. It will be the rising power from 2030-40
Bring it back into The Raj before the BJP totally ruin it.
That poll has to be more of a disappointment to Labour fans, and quite positive for Tories.
Ignore the smaller than other pollsters 14% margin because this is adjusted according to future swing-back, it’s the direction of travel, the movement in share scores we take from it. whilst Tories have dropped in most polls this year, the Tories didn’t in this one. Whilst Labour only move up one from a low of just 40%. Despite such a huge gap between Opinium polls, where the average graff markably has Labour souring up and Conservatives clearly down, this poll from respected pollster didn’t find this.
Could Labour only poll 40/41 or less at the next general election, a majority only achieved by Tories failing to recover beyond 29%?
I am not sure I follow your workings out here. Must be my old age.
Age doesn’t come alone MexPet.
Long time since last Opinum poll. In that time poll of polls has gone from Lab down to up, and Tory’s still going down, but this poll neither put Tory’s down or Lab up much, hence Tory’s 😃 Labour deflated. Simples.
Edit. I refer the whinging Ninja and Pointer to the answer I gave MexPet some moments ago.
Operation Fat Fuck requires that I go and exercise. So used a lull in the weather to go for a walk. Having conquered the sea (dodging round boulders on the shoreline) I found myself on 120m up on the cliff top path looking at this weather front approaching at c. 30mph. And when it hit me side-on? Leaning into it a 45 degrees to stand up, with snow being blown completely horizontally past my face.
It was epic!
That’s a rather disrespectful way to refer to Mrs RP.
The Cambodians are living well, at least some of them - after decades of despair and horror
That is the best possible revenge on Pol Pot and all his sicko fucktard Maoist commie friends
The likes of Vietnam and Cambodia seem to be able to recover from war in a way that African countries haven't been able to. Interesting.
I would disagree. For example Algeria, Uganda, Rwanda, Namibia have all recovered as well as Cambodia, and a case can be made for Angola and Mozambique too.
That’s really quite a stretch. Algeria perhaps
I had a great little mini break in Algiers a couple of years ago. Very attractive city with a French feel and architecture plus an unspoilt old medina, lovely Mediterranean landscape and vegetation, pretty coastline and some great (and completely under-touristed) Roman ruins an hour or so down the coast. Decent food.
It hasn’t really discovered boutique hotels or airbnb yet though, but the biggest downside is that it remains tricky to get alcohol. You have to seek it out in a limited number of restaurants and hotels.
Yes I really want to go, Likewise Libya
The booze thing is a bit off putting, but as I now drink less I might cope better
In Tangier and Morroco I found lots of them love (and drink) whisky on the sly.
Donald J. Trump has the backing of 48 percent of likely caucusgoers ahead of Monday’s election, a commanding lead for the former president, according to the Iowa Poll by The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom.
Nikki Haley is narrowly leading the battle for second place over Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, 20 percent to 16 percent, according to the survey, which was released on Saturday evening.
ny times
Apparently DJT has lost yet another court case, this time against the NYT. They had reported various wrongdoings and he raised a spurious court action against them as he is wont to do. The NYT sought compensation for the action, after it had been dismissed under something called an anti-SLAPP statute. This can be a powerful force for protecting press freedom,” said Times spokesperson Danielle Rhoads It refers to a New York law that bars baseless lawsuits designed to silence critics. Such lawsuits are known as SLAPPs or strategic lawsuits against public participation.
Essentially Trump has had to pay $400k to cover their legal costs. This type of legislation seems to me to be worth a careful look. We have so many examples of media in this country being bullied into not making reports about the behaviour of the rich and famous of which the Computer Weekly bullying by the PO reported in the ST today is only a current example.
Since Ms Vennells was at the Post Office 2012-2019, and the Cabinet Office 2019-2020 until she resigned of her own volition, some responsibility seems to attach to the current administration.
That she got made a non-exec at the Cabinet Office, well after the details of the scandal were in plain sight, continue to baffle. She must have some good connections of which we are unaware.
#NU10K
We live in a world, where after Charlie Prince crashed Citi Bank, he complained of his circumstances.
He was given only $91 million dollars to go home with, and found it difficult to find the replacement position. That was, in his words, “owed to a man of my stature”.
Vennells was *owed* a CBE and some high quality non-exec roles.
It was given to her whilst still in job, which is unusual way of doing it? Cynic might say is was reward from political masters for keeping lid on scandal and themselves out of it.
Has any PBer admitted to being NU10K?
I fit the Goodwin profile but with NONE of the influence.
So more Bob Hope than Fred Hayek 🤭
More David Byrne. On the Road to Nowhere rather than Marrakech.
Can somebody explain in clear terms how a poll which includes swingback, showing a Labour lead of 14% is "bad" for Labour? That would produce by my reckoning, close to the largest Labour majority in history.
Donald J. Trump has the backing of 48 percent of likely caucusgoers ahead of Monday’s election, a commanding lead for the former president, according to the Iowa Poll by The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom.
Nikki Haley is narrowly leading the battle for second place over Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, 20 percent to 16 percent, according to the survey, which was released on Saturday evening.
ny times
Apparently DJT has lost yet another court case, this time against the NYT. They had reported various wrongdoings and he raised a spurious court action against them as he is wont to do. The NYT sought compensation for the action, after it head been dismissed under something called an anti-SLAPP statute. This can be a powerful force for protecting press freedom,” said Times spokesperson Danielle Rhoads It refers to a New York law that bars baseless lawsuits designed to silence critics. Such lawsuits are known as SLAPPs or strategic lawsuits against public participation.
Essentially Trump has had to pay $400k to cover their legal costs. This type of legislation seems to me to be worth a careful look. We have so many examples of media in this country being bullied into not making reports about the behaviour of the rich and famous of which the Computer Weekly bullying by the PO reported in the ST today is only a current example.
I find it hard to take the site seriously when they make weblinks like that. This is dramatically below the level we would expect from the very worst of old school tabloid journalism.
Donald J. Trump has the backing of 48 percent of likely caucusgoers ahead of Monday’s election, a commanding lead for the former president, according to the Iowa Poll by The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom.
Nikki Haley is narrowly leading the battle for second place over Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, 20 percent to 16 percent, according to the survey, which was released on Saturday evening.
ny times
Apparently DJT has lost yet another court case, this time against the NYT. They had reported various wrongdoings and he raised a spurious court action against them as he is wont to do. The NYT sought compensation for the action, after it had been dismissed under something called an anti-SLAPP statute. This can be a powerful force for protecting press freedom,” said Times spokesperson Danielle Rhoads It refers to a New York law that bars baseless lawsuits designed to silence critics. Such lawsuits are known as SLAPPs or strategic lawsuits against public participation.
Essentially Trump has had to pay $400k to cover their legal costs. This type of legislation seems to me to be worth a careful look. We have so many examples of media in this country being bullied into not making reports about the behaviour of the rich and famous of which the Computer Weekly bullying by the PO reported in the ST today is only a current example.
Donald J. Trump has the backing of 48 percent of likely caucusgoers ahead of Monday’s election, a commanding lead for the former president, according to the Iowa Poll by The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom.
Nikki Haley is narrowly leading the battle for second place over Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, 20 percent to 16 percent, according to the survey, which was released on Saturday evening.
ny times
Apparently DJT has lost yet another court case, this time against the NYT. They had reported various wrongdoings and he raised a spurious court action against them as he is wont to do. The NYT sought compensation for the action, after it head been dismissed under something called an anti-SLAPP statute. This can be a powerful force for protecting press freedom,” said Times spokesperson Danielle Rhoads It refers to a New York law that bars baseless lawsuits designed to silence critics. Such lawsuits are known as SLAPPs or strategic lawsuits against public participation.
Essentially Trump has had to pay $400k to cover their legal costs. This type of legislation seems to me to be worth a careful look. We have so many examples of media in this country being bullied into not making reports about the behaviour of the rich and famous of which the Computer Weekly bullying by the PO reported in the ST today is only a current example.
I find it hard to take the site seriously when they make weblinks like that. This is dramatically below the level we would expect from the very worst of old school tabloid journalism.
The Daily Kos is a community based, left leaning website where people are encouraged to post their stories without involvement from the small paid staff. Whatever you think of the headline the story is interesting for the reasons I have indicated.
The Cambodians are living well, at least some of them - after decades of despair and horror
That is the best possible revenge on Pol Pot and all his sicko fucktard Maoist commie friends
The likes of Vietnam and Cambodia seem to be able to recover from war in a way that African countries haven't been able to. Interesting.
I would disagree. For example Algeria, Uganda, Rwanda, Namibia have all recovered as well as Cambodia, and a case can be made for Angola and Mozambique too.
That’s really quite a stretch. Algeria perhaps
I had a great little mini break in Algiers a couple of years ago. Very attractive city with a French feel and architecture plus an unspoilt old medina, lovely Mediterranean landscape and vegetation, pretty coastline and some great (and completely under-touristed) Roman ruins an hour or so down the coast. Decent food.
It hasn’t really discovered boutique hotels or airbnb yet though, but the biggest downside is that it remains tricky to get alcohol. You have to seek it out in a limited number of restaurants and hotels.
Yes I really want to go, Likewise Libya
The booze thing is a bit off putting, but as I now drink less I might cope better
Morocco didn't really bother me, despite the four of us being drinking buddies who would normally seek out craft beer when away. Found a couple of bars in Marrakesh and Tangier, a couple of riads served alcohol and we did a deal for a bottle of wine at one restaurant but it was expensive and really shit so we didn't try again. On the other hand they do some interesting fruit juices and the mint tea is addictive. One issue what what do you do in the evening if you can't sit around in a bar, drink beer and talk bollocks, but we got some early nights which was good for early starts and the muezzin wakes you up at silly o'clock anyway.
Looks like Phnom Penh will be much better on the craft beer front, a quick Google brings up several brewpub and craft beer bars, certainly in double figures
The Cambodians are living well, at least some of them - after decades of despair and horror
That is the best possible revenge on Pol Pot and all his sicko fucktard Maoist commie friends
The likes of Vietnam and Cambodia seem to be able to recover from war in a way that African countries haven't been able to. Interesting.
I would disagree. For example Algeria, Uganda, Rwanda, Namibia have all recovered as well as Cambodia, and a case can be made for Angola and Mozambique too.
That’s really quite a stretch. Algeria perhaps
I had a great little mini break in Algiers a couple of years ago. Very attractive city with a French feel and architecture plus an unspoilt old medina, lovely Mediterranean landscape and vegetation, pretty coastline and some great (and completely under-touristed) Roman ruins an hour or so down the coast. Decent food.
It hasn’t really discovered boutique hotels or airbnb yet though, but the biggest downside is that it remains tricky to get alcohol. You have to seek it out in a limited number of restaurants and hotels.
Yes I really want to go, Likewise Libya
The booze thing is a bit off putting, but as I now drink less I might cope better
Morocco didn't really bother me, despite the four of us being drinking buddies who would normally seek out craft beer when away. Found a couple of bars in Marrakesh and Tangier, a couple of riads served alcohol and we did a deal for a bottle of wine at one restaurant but it was expensive and really shit so we didn't try again. On the other hand they do some interesting fruit juices and the mint tea is addictive. One issue what what do you do in the evening if you can't sit around in a bar, drink beer and talk bollocks, but we got some early nights which was good for early starts and the muezzin wakes you up at silly o'clock anyway.
Looks like Phnom Penh will be much better on the craft beer front, a quick Google brings up several brewpub and craft beer bars, certainly in double figures
PP is fabulous for booze and food. You will have a blast
It is exceptionally hedonistic. Sometimes makes Bangkok look restrained
In Morocco (or Tangier and Essaouria at least) you can get teas infused with hashish or opium, which can pass the evening nicely….
The Cambodians are living well, at least some of them - after decades of despair and horror
That is the best possible revenge on Pol Pot and all his sicko fucktard Maoist commie friends
The likes of Vietnam and Cambodia seem to be able to recover from war in a way that African countries haven't been able to. Interesting.
I would disagree. For example Algeria, Uganda, Rwanda, Namibia have all recovered as well as Cambodia, and a case can be made for Angola and Mozambique too.
My daughter and her new husband flew off to Uganda for their belated Honeymoon yesterday. She is fascinated by birds and wants to see the gorillas. Hard to imagine Uganda as a holiday destination even 10 years ago.
Uganda has some of the best birding in the world, so a good choice, and their National Parks are recovering well, I hear.
There is so much more to Africa though than natural history and landscapes, much as I love those. Africa has vibrant culture and art scenes in many countries and is endlessly creative and surprising. Less so in cityscapes and architecture, but more so in the human arts.
If the last half century was dominated by Asia, the next half century will be dominated by Africa and its diaspora. By the end of the century Africa is most likely to be the youngest and most populous continent.
No, the next half century will be China yielding to India. The potential of India and its surrounding satellites is enormous. It will be the rising power from 2030-40
I don't see this happening. I don't think the 'potential' power of India will ever be realised, due to what I see as the chaotic family-oriented nature of the culture. I could be wrong.
Donald J. Trump has the backing of 48 percent of likely caucusgoers ahead of Monday’s election, a commanding lead for the former president, according to the Iowa Poll by The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom.
Nikki Haley is narrowly leading the battle for second place over Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, 20 percent to 16 percent, according to the survey, which was released on Saturday evening.
ny times
It is worth noting that Ann Selzer has called out that the headline numbers may be overstating Haley a little as the supplementary data suggests her supporters are less likely to turn out. I am not into the data enough to know whether there has been any likelihood to vote adjustment in the numbers, so DYOR.
I listen however to what Selzer says because she has proven herself time and time again when it comes to Iowa polling.
I did think that Haley might put on a last minute surge to get within say 15 points of Trump in Iowa, but I think that is probably less likely now. I still think she is a decent bet for coming second, to give her a launch pad for NH.
Donald J. Trump has the backing of 48 percent of likely caucusgoers ahead of Monday’s election, a commanding lead for the former president, according to the Iowa Poll by The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom.
Nikki Haley is narrowly leading the battle for second place over Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, 20 percent to 16 percent, according to the survey, which was released on Saturday evening.
ny times
Apparently DJT has lost yet another court case, this time against the NYT. They had reported various wrongdoings and he raised a spurious court action against them as he is wont to do. The NYT sought compensation for the action, after it had been dismissed under something called an anti-SLAPP statute. This can be a powerful force for protecting press freedom,” said Times spokesperson Danielle Rhoads It refers to a New York law that bars baseless lawsuits designed to silence critics. Such lawsuits are known as SLAPPs or strategic lawsuits against public participation.
Essentially Trump has had to pay $400k to cover their legal costs. This type of legislation seems to me to be worth a careful look. We have so many examples of media in this country being bullied into not making reports about the behaviour of the rich and famous of which the Computer Weekly bullying by the PO reported in the ST today is only a current example.
Presumably the NYT having gone to these lengths will look to enforce the judgment and they have the muscle to do so. Trump's campaign funds may well take yet another knock.
Can somebody explain in clear terms how a poll which includes swingback, showing a Labour lead of 14% is "bad" for Labour? That would produce by my reckoning, close to the largest Labour majority in history.
But my analysis had nothing to do with the result it points to, such as gap between parties, my analysis is the only thing that matters in election year: direction of travel. Movement in the shares, not the gaps.
Labours gap to the Tories can show terrible drop, and that EC you are looking at change quite remarkably, without Tories going up at all, simply by Labour shipping 2 to Lib Dem and 1 to green in the next Opinum poll in two weeks. What matters here is the share direction of travel and trend. Starmer could poll 4 or 5 less than the 43% Boris got at the last General Election, Starmer can have less % and votes than BJO Svengali Corbyn at GE 17, yet still get similar majority to Boris win list time.
That’s how I’m analysing it. Those are the indicators I am looking for.
Just had a vivid memory of me age 23, wearing sort of Hitler Youth black shorts - with braces - inhabiting a £2 a night hostel on the wild bank of the Nile at Luxor, a hostel which was actually part of some ancient temple, so you woke up in the morning and stared at Anubis staring back at you. Superb
I was with three friends and we were all equally insane and we spent every day chasing down opium until we found a good supplier, and that kept us zonked for a week, opiated to fuck, the only problem was that the hostel owner/opium dealer really really wanted to have gay sex with my very handsome best friend Trevor, and, failing that, me (less handsome but still pretty enough, back then)
So we had to spend the whole time begging him to sell us more opium while at the same time coming up with excuses why we would not let him sodomise us (or bugger him, I don’t know if he batted or bowled)
Can somebody explain in clear terms how a poll which includes swingback, showing a Labour lead of 14% is "bad" for Labour? That would produce by my reckoning, close to the largest Labour majority in history.
If you stand on your head and squint, just so….
It’s bad for Labour, because to get a 14% lead, people who weren’t reading The Socialist Worker before they were weaned are voting Labour.
This contaminates Labour. So the Labour Party becomes the Tory Party.
Once you understand winning is Bad, it all makes sense.
Can somebody explain in clear terms how a poll which includes swingback, showing a Labour lead of 14% is "bad" for Labour? That would produce by my reckoning, close to the largest Labour majority in history.
If you stand on your head and squint, just so….
It’s bad for Labour, because to get a 14% lead, people who weren’t reading The Socialist Worker before they were weaned are voting Labour.
This contaminates Labour. So the Labour Party becomes the Tory Party.
Once you understand winning is Bad, it all makes sense.
Psephologically, look at the shares not the gaps, look at the trend in shares. Tories can look at Starmer getting less % than Boris got, and BJO point out it’s less % and votes than Corbyn got. But that can still be an 80 seat majority for Labour. There’s at least 4 parties who can seriously take 20%+ votes from the big two in 2024, where in 97 that was just 6%. So the thing to watch is trend in party %. Tories probably just 25.5 at the moment, in this market place can they break 29%? If not This allows Labour to be squeased to 38.
Can somebody explain in clear terms how a poll which includes swingback, showing a Labour lead of 14% is "bad" for Labour? That would produce by my reckoning, close to the largest Labour majority in history.
If you stand on your head and squint, just so….
It’s bad for Labour, because to get a 14% lead, people who weren’t reading The Socialist Worker before they were weaned are voting Labour.
This contaminates Labour. So the Labour Party becomes the Tory Party.
Once you understand winning is Bad, it all makes sense.
Psephologically, look at the shares not the gaps, look at the trend in shares. Tories can look at Starmer getting less % than Boris got, and BJO point out it’s less % and votes than Corbyn got. But that can still be an 80 seat majority for Labour. There’s at least 4 parties who can seriously take 20%+ votes from the big two in 2024, where in 97 that was just 6%. So the thing to watch is trend in party %. Tories probably just 25.5 at the moment, in this market place can they break 29%? If not This allows Labour to be squeased to 38.
Can somebody explain in clear terms how a poll which includes swingback, showing a Labour lead of 14% is "bad" for Labour? That would produce by my reckoning, close to the largest Labour majority in history.
If you stand on your head and squint, just so….
It’s bad for Labour, because to get a 14% lead, people who weren’t reading The Socialist Worker before they were weaned are voting Labour.
This contaminates Labour. So the Labour Party becomes the Tory Party.
Once you understand winning is Bad, it all makes sense.
Psephologically, look at the shares not the gaps, look at the trend in shares. Tories can look at Starmer getting less % than Boris got, and BJO point out it’s less % and votes than Corbyn got. But that can still be an 80 seat majority for Labour. There’s at least 4 parties who can seriously take 20%+ votes from the big two in 2024, where in 97 that was just 6%. So the thing to watch is trend in party %. Tories probably just 25.5 at the moment, in this market place can they break 29%? If not This allows Labour to be squeased to 38.
Bear in mind that Opinium had the good grace not to do a poll a fortnight ago, so these are changes since mid December. That means the changes they get inculde both the Lab to Con swingette that happened before Christmas and the Con to Lab blip back in the last fortnight.
The most important number comparing this Opinium to the last one is -4; the number of weeks until Rishi has to call the election. It's been another month where the Conservative ratings have stayed as underwater as a yachting disaster on Howard's Way.
Totally off topic, but yesterday we went down to our local pub for lunch, and I had a steak and mushroom pie, a proper one with a top on the bottom and sides. And it was full of meat and mushrooms. Very filling, and the beer was good too!
I resent the fact that mushrooms have been coming over here, stealing the jobs that used to be done by traditional British kidneys.
You’re kidd’nme! Doesn’t leave muchroom for the steak
Question for PBers: 100 days on, has anyone significantly changed their views on the situation in Gaza?
For my own part, I started out with quite a bit of sympathy for Israel but an underlying concern that an emotionally driven response would be counterproductive to their long term interests.
Over the past 100 days and seeing the indiscriminate nature of their response I find myself very firmly on the side of Palestinians, even to the extent that I can understand (whilst not morally condoning) widespread support for Hamas. It is also contributing a little to my view that the USA may no longer be a force for good in the world and realistically the least worst set of coattails for UK to hang onto for the next century might be China’s.
The temptation with this conflict is to try and interpret in a 'light v dark, good v evil' way, but I don't think that applies here. Obviously though various actors will try and appeal to this set of emotions to try and further their own interests through the use of propoganda, ie dramatic pictures of dead babies. It is interesting how someone can arrive at the conclusion 'China is less evil than America' as a result of a possibly disproportionate response to a terrorist attack. I would personally say that the stuff that has gone on in Xinjiang is objectively far worse than the situation in Gaza, and far closer to an actual genocide, if a 'good v evil' analysis is applied to world affairs.
There are also some questions that persist about Gaza, ie aren't some of the Muslim countries 'at fault' for not taking in refugees, if there is an attempt to attribute responsibility for the bad humanitarian situation.
Agree that good v evil analysis is futile.
But I think an analysis that looks with open eyes at how isolated the USA and the West is becoming is important. I’m not cheerleading this btw, but I do think the choice by the USA to not put the brakes on Israel when they so easily could do so is a very poor strategic choice.
Add into the mix the instability of the USA currently, and I think we (i.e. Europe) seriously need to think about which of the major powers we hitch ourselves to.
As for not taking in more refugees, I think the argument against enabling ethnic cleansing of Gaza is compelling.
You claim your position has changed but you have been arguing against the Atlantic Alliance since your second post
You have an agenda, my friend. That’s fine - lots of people on here have fixed views.
Question for PBers: 100 days on, has anyone significantly changed their views on the situation in Gaza?
For my own part, I started out with quite a bit of sympathy for Israel but an underlying concern that an emotionally driven response would be counterproductive to their long term interests.
Over the past 100 days and seeing the indiscriminate nature of their response I find myself very firmly on the side of Palestinians, even to the extent that I can understand (whilst not morally condoning) widespread support for Hamas. It is also contributing a little to my view that the USA may no longer be a force for good in the world and realistically the least worst set of coattails for UK to hang onto for the next century might be China’s.
I think Israel consistently overreacts than rather just reacts, and its loss of sense of proportion can lose it the sympathy it initially starts with. They end up being too binary. The Gaza War needs to be brought to a close, quickly, and then Israel should fund reconstruction and aid to maintain support.
I am very concerned by your final sentence. The USA is far from perfect but it's a free democracy and the only serious Western power checking the expansionism of repressive autocracies in Russia, Iran and China in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Taiwan respectively. And we've seen what happens to people that fall under its wing.
When I catch HIGNFY, it can still be quite funny. But it suffers from a similar problem to Private Eye. I use to subscribe to PE from when I was about 25 to 40; I loved it. But after that many years, the stories were all the same, even if the names were different. It got boring.
On several occasions where I knew something about what Private Eye was satirising, they were usuallly off-target - typically taking something out of context because it fitted their "the powers that be are corrupt and laughable" agenda. Their covers are usually great, but the content is so slanted to cynicism that it's an unreliable guide to what's actually happening. When they do expose something serious like the PO scandal, it gets lost in the general pool of random muck-raking. I suspect that's why their revelations weren't taken seriously.
I think I agree with that, but it's just what I expect from journalism. It seems whenever a story's printed in a paper that I know a little about, there will be some detail wrong.
The best was one where the Derby Evening Telegraph put a large fire on the wrong side of the town, when it was a few streets away from their offices.
Another problem with PE is that it's unremittingly negative. An occasional 'well done!' story without cynicism would go down a treat. Governments and councils do occasionally get things right.
While I agree with the fact journalists get it wrong. Sorry mp's usually seem to have less clue so Nick saying a subject I knew about and the papers got it wrong may be true....not convinced nick knew either unless it was on his speciality animal welfafe.....politicians and journalists sadly are the same they are generalists that no fuck all about anything but feel they are experts on everything
Comments
Israel is a quasi-apartheid state led by a government containing proper fascists, but they are confronting anti semitic islamonazis who genuinely want all Jews dead so what are they meant to do?
Let them finally fight it out to the death, to the end, and try and quarantine them both so they don’t destabilise the world. Is my position. Which is pretty much what it was before October 7 albeit with more nihilistic apathy
The Ukraine war is a territorial war of conquest, unprovoked, by one country that believes the people and culture it is invading are its own kin.
Thank you for flagging - I will update the spreadsheet.
A reminder that anyone who sees heroes in the Middle East needs a trip to Barnard Castle. It is much more a Lord Vetinari situation - ‘There are only bad people, but some of them are on opposite sides.’
Some things are not just a case of money.
I really do not know what the answers are.
But ceasefire only happen when both sides want them, and see them as better than fighting on.
Worse, just asking that showed a lack of trust in our guys to do the testing.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1746484178995003737/photo/1
At best.
https://www.npr.org/2024/01/13/1224583688/more-than-30-palestinians-were-reported-killed-in-israeli-airstrikes
I confess I simply filter it all out now. It either washes over me unnoticed or I actively avert my gaze. I’ve seen enough dead people on both sides
That’s probably a failing but there’s only so much you can watch. I’ve kinda got the point that it’s all horrible
It’s all so boring for a start. There are no new arguments. Just generation after generation with the same unending grievances and hatreds
I recall having the same reaction as a teenager to endless bad news from Belfast. The grey little houses and the rough Ulster accents and the ancestral religious loathing and yet another bomb or atrocity. For what? It all felt quite mad and very off putting and I just wanted it to go away
Fully agree with this, my China comment was a bit provocative. If I thought a realistic alternative was a properly armed Europe (possibly even the anathema of a European Army?) that could stand alone I’d keep well away from any other major power. But I don’t think we’ll do this, at least not in time, and for all it’s faults China seems the least destabilising of the major powers that do exist.
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 27% (-)
LDEM: 11% (-)
REF: 10% (+1)
GRN: 6% (-1)
via @OpiniumResearch, 10 - 12 Jan
Only Fans!!
Laura K. on form and true to form this morning.
Without it we wouldn't have the USA as a global hegemon buttressing us, or the United Nations, and autocracy would have continued to be the human experience.
It is a big-budget drama with some funny lines.
They have alphabets and cuisines and literatures and artistic traditions. I’ve been struck on this trip how beautiful young Khmer women (and they are notably pretty) look EXACTLY like the apsaras - the famously erotic royal concubine dancers - carved on the many stone friezes of Angkor
Can any of that be said of any sub Saharan African society? Sadly, I don’t think so
A survey carried out by Survation in the Essex constituency of Clacton found that the former Ukip and Brexit Party leader would pick up 37 per cent of the vote compared to 27 per cent for the Conservative incumbent if he stood as a Reform candidate.
The figures exclude the 30 per cent of people who said they were undecided or refused to state their preference.
Telegraph
We live in a world, where after Charlie Prince crashed Citi Bank, he complained of his circumstances.
He was given only $91 million dollars to go home with, and found it difficult to find the replacement position. That was, in his words, “owed to a man of my stature”.
Vennells was *owed* a CBE and some high quality non-exec roles.
There still seem to be quite a few Gazan civvies dying by HE every day, though I accept that may not be defined as 'fighting'.
Bob still has the blue HB Viva in both series and the Christmas Special. In the Christmas Special Terry passes his driving test in an Austin 1300 "remember the hand signals" and Terry's minicab is a Hillman Minx (Hunter).
So PB posters disagree with most punters.
The question is which ones are right.
Has any PBer admitted to being NU10K?
“Yes, but he is not a Romanoff. It’s another family. He is much more powerful, and much more despotic.”
There is so much more to Africa though than natural history and landscapes, much as I love those. Africa has vibrant culture and art scenes in many countries and is endlessly creative and surprising. Less so in cityscapes and architecture, but more so in the human arts.
If the last half century was dominated by Asia, the next half century will be dominated by Africa and its diaspora. By the end of the century Africa is most likely to be the youngest and most populous continent.
It was epic!
It hasn’t really discovered boutique hotels or airbnb yet though, but the biggest downside is that it remains tricky to get alcohol. You have to seek it out in a limited
number of restaurants and hotels.
Dave Tattoos in Clacton would be over the moon. You might have some explaining to do on the doorsteps of Totnes.
Henry Normal's series on Radio 4 is well worth listening to, not sure if it counts as stand up.
Nikki Haley is narrowly leading the battle for second place over Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, 20 percent to 16 percent, according to the survey, which was released on Saturday evening.
ny times
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12nbHasbPER7LGhpAxwtVdnQ0hjyOiS2X/edit?usp=share_link&ouid=115253910051197093363&rtpof=true&sd=true
Ignore the smaller than other pollsters 14% margin because this is adjusted according to future swing-back, it’s the direction of travel, the movement in share scores we take from it. whilst Tories have dropped in most polls this year, the Tories didn’t in this one. Whilst Labour only move up one from a low of just 40%. Despite such a huge gap between Opinium polls, where the average graff markably has Labour souring up and Conservatives clearly down, this poll from respected pollster didn’t find this.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Could Labour only poll 40/41 or less at the next general election, a majority only achieved by Tories failing to recover beyond 29%?
No "big coat" for me today!
Spring is arriving!
The booze thing is a bit off putting, but as I now drink less I might cope better
Ignore the smaller than other pollsters 14% margin because this is adjusted according to future swing-back, it’s the direction of travel..."
??
The direction of travel in this poll is the Labour lead increasing. They must be gutted.
Can somebody explain in clear terms how a poll which includes swingback, showing a Labour lead of 14% is "bad" for Labour? That would produce by my reckoning, close to the largest Labour majority in history.
Long time since last Opinum poll. In that time poll of polls has gone from Lab down to up, and Tory’s still going down, but this poll neither put Tory’s down or Lab up much, hence Tory’s 😃 Labour deflated. Simples.
Edit. I refer the whinging Ninja and Pointer to the answer I gave MexPet some moments ago.
Not the most devout, of course, but a fair few.
Probably like doing illegal drugs here.
Essentially Trump has had to pay $400k to cover their legal costs. This type of legislation seems to me to be worth a careful look. We have so many examples of media in this country being bullied into not making reports about the behaviour of the rich and famous of which the Computer Weekly bullying by the PO reported in the ST today is only a current example.
More on the story here: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/1/13/2217204/-The-Orange-Skidmark-loses-another-lawsuit-I-d-never-heard-of?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
Total disaster! SKS fans please explain.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&scotshow=Y&CON=27&LAB=41&LIB=11&Reform=10&Green=6&UKIP=&TVCON=15&TVLAB=15&TVLIB=50&TVReform=25&TVGreen=50&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=16&SCOTLAB=33.1&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1.5&SCOTGreen=2.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=36.9&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Looks like Phnom Penh will be much better on the craft beer front, a quick Google brings up several brewpub and craft beer bars, certainly in double figures
PP is fabulous for booze and food. You will have a blast
It is exceptionally hedonistic. Sometimes makes Bangkok look restrained
In Morocco (or Tangier and Essaouria at least) you can get teas infused with hashish or opium, which can pass the evening nicely….
I listen however to what Selzer says because she has proven herself time and time again when it comes to Iowa polling.
I did think that Haley might put on a last minute surge to get within say 15 points of Trump in Iowa, but I think that is probably less likely now. I still think she is a decent bet for coming second, to give her a launch pad for NH.
Labours gap to the Tories can show terrible drop, and that EC you are looking at change quite remarkably, without Tories going up at all, simply by Labour shipping 2 to Lib Dem and 1 to green in the next Opinum poll in two weeks. What matters here is the share direction of travel and trend. Starmer could poll 4 or 5 less than the 43% Boris got at the last General Election, Starmer can have less % and votes than BJO Svengali Corbyn at GE 17, yet still get similar majority to Boris win list time.
That’s how I’m analysing it. Those are the indicators I am looking for.
NEW THREAD
I was with three friends and we were all equally insane and we spent every day chasing down opium until we found a good supplier, and that kept us zonked for a week, opiated to fuck, the only problem was that the hostel owner/opium dealer really really wanted to have gay sex with my very handsome best friend Trevor, and, failing that, me (less handsome but still pretty enough, back then)
So we had to spend the whole time begging him to sell us more opium while at the same time coming up with excuses why we would not let him sodomise us (or bugger him, I don’t know if he batted or bowled)
THAT, my PB friends, is a true story
It’s bad for Labour, because to get a 14% lead, people who weren’t reading The Socialist Worker before they were weaned are voting Labour.
This contaminates Labour. So the Labour Party becomes the Tory Party.
Once you understand winning is Bad, it all makes sense.
The most important number comparing this Opinium to the last one is -4; the number of weeks until Rishi has to call the election. It's been another month where the Conservative ratings have stayed as underwater as a yachting disaster on Howard's Way.
A very grave-y situation
You have an agenda, my friend. That’s fine - lots of people on here have fixed views.
But don’t pretend otherwise to mislead people
“It’s no great distance” signals the punch line
Monkhouse was great at a self-deprecating shrug
“I live at 71” in the punchline, laughter track, shrug,“So it’s no great distance “ to wrap it up