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PB Predictions Competition 2024 – Entries – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 22 in General
imagePB Predictions Competition 2024 – Entries – politicalbetting.com

A total of 81 of entries were received for the PB Prediction Competition 2024 and I have included a summary of those entries below.

Read the full story here

«134

Comments

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,772
    I didn't enter, but thanks for this.

    It'd be interesting to know the mean/median/mode for the categories they apply to, such as 1, 7, 8, 9, and 10, and perhaps which poster was nearest the average, Understand that would be extra work, so ignore this if you want.

    Again, thanks.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,803
    Thanks for doing this Ben.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,164
    Thanks, great work. An interesting mix of people pitching for the median, and making some left field guesses to stand out from the crowd.
  • Thanks Ben.

    I seem to be well above the rest on Lab Maj. I took the figure off Electoral Calculus, and I'm surprised others didn't do likewise.

    No matter. It's good to be the outlier. FPTP is my friend. :)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,951
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Punter, I just made my answers up on the spot :p
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,164

    Thanks Ben.

    I seem to be well above the rest on Lab Maj. I took the figure off Electoral Calculus, and I'm surprised others didn't do likewise.

    No matter. It's good to be the outlier. FPTP is my friend. :)

    The counter-argument is that Labour polled over 50% for much of the period prior to the 1997 campaign, yet despite a decent campaign with no big mistakes, Blair came in at 42%.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 4,780
    Interesting how so many more posters predict Biden as POTUS, despite Trump being the current favourite.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,045
    Can we have a competition to predict the winner now?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,697
    darkage said:

    Interesting how so many more posters predict Biden as POTUS, despite Trump being the current favourite.

    Factoring in Trump's coming convictions?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,388

    Thanks Ben.

    I seem to be well above the rest on Lab Maj. I took the figure off Electoral Calculus, and I'm surprised others didn't do likewise.

    No matter. It's good to be the outlier. FPTP is my friend. :)

    I see that even those predicting NOM (including myself) have all gone for Lab most seats.

    Sunak is toast.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,697
    Former Gambino crime family underboss Sammy 'the Bull' Gravano says Donald Trump is incorruptible.
    Trump thanks him and posts veiled threat to judges.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpfshnAjuzE
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,164
    darkage said:

    Interesting how so many more posters predict Biden as POTUS, despite Trump being the current favourite.

    In a sense, the same argument as the Lab maj. It’s assumed that a proportion of Trump’s poll rating is a protest that will melt away when people come to consider and weigh up both candidates as the next president. It doesn’t take much swingback to put Biden back in front.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,388
    It looks like John Sweeney may be in the running for Hamble Valley for the LDs.

    https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1746317986175107521?t=b9wllVj8amHBdNKAy6gIaA&s=19
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,164
    Foxy said:

    It looks like John Sweeney may be in the running for Hamble Valley for the LDs.

    https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1746317986175107521?t=b9wllVj8amHBdNKAy6gIaA&s=19

    A new seat made out of bits of Eastleigh and Fareham, with a small bit from Winchester - he could be in with a chance?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,045
    Incidentally, just caught up with the previous thread and the news from Congress.

    Does the US have a requirement that elected reps be sane, and if so, how the fuck has Marjorie Taylor Greene not been disqualified from the House? She makes Goebbels look normal.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,951
    Mr. Song, does make me wonder if an already corrupted person counts as incorruptible.

    After all, Julius Caesar is literally unkillable, being already killed.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,388

    Former Gambino crime family underboss Sammy 'the Bull' Gravano says Donald Trump is incorruptible.
    Trump thanks him and posts veiled threat to judges.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpfshnAjuzE

    As being POTUS was Trump's only office, how could he know?
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 818

    I didn't enter, but thanks for this.

    It'd be interesting to know the mean/median/mode for the categories they apply to, such as 1, 7, 8, 9, and 10, and perhaps which poster was nearest the average, Understand that would be extra work, so ignore this if you want.

    Again, thanks.

    Agreed.

    Not least because I can see a betting angle. I am so woefully poor at political betting myself, but the wisdom of crowds effect should make the averages from this list a decent betting proposition.
  • IanB2 said:

    Thanks Ben.

    I seem to be well above the rest on Lab Maj. I took the figure off Electoral Calculus, and I'm surprised others didn't do likewise.

    No matter. It's good to be the outlier. FPTP is my friend. :)

    The counter-argument is that Labour polled over 50% for much of the period prior to the 1997 campaign, yet despite a decent campaign with no big mistakes, Blair came in at 42%.
    Can't dispute it, Ian, but there is no iron law of elections in play here. I take the view that Swingmore is no less likely than Swingback, and I like the odds.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,000

    Thanks for doing this Ben.

    Seconded, thank you.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,276
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    It looks like John Sweeney may be in the running for Hamble Valley for the LDs.

    https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1746317986175107521?t=b9wllVj8amHBdNKAy6gIaA&s=19

    A new seat made out of bits of Eastleigh and Fareham, with a small bit from Winchester - he could be in with a chance?
    If the Conservatives really fall apart (not impossible), then who knows? I imagine that Winchester and Eastleigh are higher campaigning priorities for Lib Dems in Hampshire, though.

    For fans of business'n'bonking soap operas, we're basically talking Howard's Way land here.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Punter, I just made my answers up on the spot :p

    As good a method as any!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,455
    Davey got North Korean levels of backing from the 81, - 100%. In truth terms it may mean we are all wrong, but in betting terms it is just the same as being all correct, so no outcome about the LDs makes a difference. Same with the SNP leader and Starmer.

    Do you get any points for being correct that there would be a change but wrong about who it was?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,276
    edited January 14
    Meanwhile:

    The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, the former Ukip donor, suggested that Farage would win 37 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex, beating the Tory incumbent by ten percentage points.

    Responding to its findings, Farage said: “I have to say to you that this poll does make the balance of probabilities towards getting back on the pitch stronger. This poll does make me consider getting back on the pitch far more seriously than ever before.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d5d2faba-9d73-4753-a10f-980be039011e?shareToken=0365f891b5fdd14031cb27cf9b5dbcc3
  • maxh said:

    I didn't enter, but thanks for this.

    It'd be interesting to know the mean/median/mode for the categories they apply to, such as 1, 7, 8, 9, and 10, and perhaps which poster was nearest the average, Understand that would be extra work, so ignore this if you want.

    Again, thanks.

    Agreed.

    Not least because I can see a betting angle. I am so woefully poor at political betting myself, but the wisdom of crowds effect should make the averages from this list a decent betting proposition.
    Max, you need to see if you can get a copy of Against The Crowd, by Alan Potts. It's an old work but never been bettered.

    It will change your views on betting, and hopefully your fortunes.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,455
    Foxy said:

    Thanks Ben.

    I seem to be well above the rest on Lab Maj. I took the figure off Electoral Calculus, and I'm surprised others didn't do likewise.

    No matter. It's good to be the outlier. FPTP is my friend. :)

    I see that even those predicting NOM (including myself) have all gone for Lab most seats.

    Sunak is toast.
    Outcomes are possible where Labour doesn't get most seats but are still able to cobble together a government of sorts (which won't last long).
  • If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,388
    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    Thanks Ben.

    I seem to be well above the rest on Lab Maj. I took the figure off Electoral Calculus, and I'm surprised others didn't do likewise.

    No matter. It's good to be the outlier. FPTP is my friend. :)

    I see that even those predicting NOM (including myself) have all gone for Lab most seats.

    Sunak is toast.
    Outcomes are possible where Labour doesn't get most seats but are still able to cobble together a government of sorts (which won't last long).
    Yes literally everyone in the contest has Starmer as PM, and there are even further possibilities.

    Only @Ghedebrav thinks interest rates won't come down, and no one thinks they might go up

    The highest CPI prediction is 5.9% too.

    I am not entirely convinced by the wisdom of crowds, its not just Davey that we are unanimous over.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,464
    edited January 14

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

  • maxhmaxh Posts: 818

    maxh said:

    I didn't enter, but thanks for this.

    It'd be interesting to know the mean/median/mode for the categories they apply to, such as 1, 7, 8, 9, and 10, and perhaps which poster was nearest the average, Understand that would be extra work, so ignore this if you want.

    Again, thanks.

    Agreed.

    Not least because I can see a betting angle. I am so woefully poor at political betting myself, but the wisdom of crowds effect should make the averages from this list a decent betting proposition.
    Max, you need to see if you can get a copy of Against The Crowd, by Alan Potts. It's an old work but never been bettered.

    It will change your views on betting, and hopefully your fortunes.
    Thanks, will do!

    Though, to reassure you, the scales of my stakes are such that my fortune, such as it is, is not much affected either way!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,464
    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    Thanks Ben.

    I seem to be well above the rest on Lab Maj. I took the figure off Electoral Calculus, and I'm surprised others didn't do likewise.

    No matter. It's good to be the outlier. FPTP is my friend. :)

    I see that even those predicting NOM (including myself) have all gone for Lab most seats.

    Sunak is toast.
    Outcomes are possible where Labour doesn't get most seats but are still able to cobble together a government of sorts (which won't last long).
    Yes literally everyone in the contest has Starmer as PM, and there are even further possibilities.

    Only @Ghedebrav thinks interest rates won't come down, and no one thinks they might go up

    The highest CPI prediction is 5.9% too.

    I am not entirely convinced by the wisdom of crowds, its not just Davey that we are unanimous over.
    Hmmm -

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/13/red-sea-crisis-could-shatter-hopes-of-economic-recovery
  • Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,944

    darkage said:

    Interesting how so many more posters predict Biden as POTUS, despite Trump being the current favourite.

    Factoring in Trump's coming convictions?
    That must be it as the bookies can't be aware of DJT's legal problems.
  • Farage would get elected in Clacton, suggests a poll of 509:

    RFM 37%
    CON 27%
    LAB 23%
    LDM 6%

    https://t.co/WBViKofFhs

    Go Nigel go!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,388
    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    There have been a bewildering number of mergers and renaming of the portfolio, but I think it was Kelly Tollhurst at the time.

    I don't know if this is relevant to the CBE, and am faintly bemused at the British obsession with these baubles. It really isn't the biggest issue in the whole scandal, not even in the top 10.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,388
    edited January 14

    Farage would get elected in Clacton, suggests a poll of 509:

    RFM 37%
    CON 27%
    LAB 23%
    LDM 6%

    https://t.co/WBViKofFhs

    Go Nigel go!

    8th defeat incoming....
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,697
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    It looks like John Sweeney may be in the running for Hamble Valley for the LDs.

    https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1746317986175107521?t=b9wllVj8amHBdNKAy6gIaA&s=19

    A new seat made out of bits of Eastleigh and Fareham, with a small bit from Winchester - he could be in with a chance?
    I live in the new Hamble Valley constituency, so it's goodbye to Suella from me.
    She chose the Fareham & Waterlooville seat, correctly thinking that it would be a safer Tory one. I see Paul Holmes has done a chicken run from Eastleigh. Notable that a number of Tory members were unhappy about the selection.
    https://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/politics/conservatives-in-fareham-deeply-concerned-after-being-turned-away-from-voting-for-hamble-valley-candidate-4145790
  • Foxy said:

    Farage would get elected in Clacton, suggests a poll of 509:

    RFM 37%
    CON 27%
    LAB 23%
    LDM 6%

    https://t.co/WBViKofFhs

    Go Nigel go!

    8th defeat incoming....
    The important bit is him going for it as leader of RefUK. That’s got to be worth a score more Tory seats in the bin.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,266
    edited January 14

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,492

    I didn't enter, but thanks for this.

    It'd be interesting to know the mean/median/mode for the categories they apply to, such as 1, 7, 8, 9, and 10, and perhaps which poster was nearest the average, Understand that would be extra work, so ignore this if you want.

    Again, thanks.

    I have already done most of this, I'll try to post something in the next half hour.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,464

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Hadn't seen that. Hoiw extraordinary, Sir Berry saying they might strip the pensions off the execs. Presumably it'll be all right then?

    PLus the instant response is to return with all the approving annual reports and other validations, you know, like CBEs. And get one of those barrister chappies to ask "You want to strip the pension rights now? After approving everything for years on end?"
  • maxh said:

    maxh said:

    I didn't enter, but thanks for this.

    It'd be interesting to know the mean/median/mode for the categories they apply to, such as 1, 7, 8, 9, and 10, and perhaps which poster was nearest the average, Understand that would be extra work, so ignore this if you want.

    Again, thanks.

    Agreed.

    Not least because I can see a betting angle. I am so woefully poor at political betting myself, but the wisdom of crowds effect should make the averages from this list a decent betting proposition.
    Max, you need to see if you can get a copy of Against The Crowd, by Alan Potts. It's an old work but never been bettered.

    It will change your views on betting, and hopefully your fortunes.
    Thanks, will do!

    Though, to reassure you, the scales of my stakes are such that my fortune, such as it is, is not much affected either way!
    One of his many words of wisdom is that you should let your tummy tell you how much to stake. If you have no butterflies at all, you are betting too little. If too many, you are overstaking.

    The absolute level doesn't matter. You bet at the level you are comfortable with.
  • Meanwhile, in broken Tory Britain, Bournemouth council on the verge of bankruptcy thanks in part to a high SEND bill.

    Tories cut council funding. Tories cut funding for early years intervention. Tories claim surprise that all these people need funding.

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/jan/13/uk-council-bournemouth-christchurch-poole-could-go-bust-due-to-60m-hole-in-special-needs-spending
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,917
    edited January 14
    ...

    Farage would get elected in Clacton, suggests a poll of 509:

    RFM 37%
    CON 27%
    LAB 23%
    LDM 6%

    https://t.co/WBViKofFhs

    Go Nigel go!

    Wasn't Thanet a shoo-in once?

    Although with the recently fun-washed Nige, fresh from taking down Starmer for vexatiously prosecuting all the sub-Postmasters, who knows?

    With a year and nine days to the General Election, the voters might have forgotten about Post Officegate by 23/1/2025. Just three days after Trump's inauguration.

    Yes, I have the Back to the Future Almanac.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,388

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    Cabinet Office was Feb 2019, so Theresa May. She resigned in March 2020, so Johnson kept her on for a significant term.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,492
    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    Thanks Ben.

    I seem to be well above the rest on Lab Maj. I took the figure off Electoral Calculus, and I'm surprised others didn't do likewise.

    No matter. It's good to be the outlier. FPTP is my friend. :)

    I see that even those predicting NOM (including myself) have all gone for Lab most seats.

    Sunak is toast.
    Outcomes are possible where Labour doesn't get most seats but are still able to cobble together a government of sorts (which won't last long).
    Yes literally everyone in the contest has Starmer as PM, and there are even further possibilities.

    Only @Ghedebrav thinks interest rates won't come down, and no one thinks they might go up

    The highest CPI prediction is 5.9% too.

    I am not entirely convinced by the wisdom of crowds, its not just Davey that we are unanimous over.
    One person did have a Con majority of 20, and one other entrant had Reeves rather than Starmer as Labour leader.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,454
    Well done @Benpointer - I didn’t enter coz I can’t win (don’t care enough to think about some of the questions) but it looks mighty impressive when tabulated

    Interestingly the Biden/Trump dichotomy divides really predictably on political grounds. Nearly all of the few people predicting a Trump victory are on “the right” as far as I can see, and FWIW

    This makes me suspect hopecasting, not forecasting
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Hadn't seen that. Hoiw extraordinary, Sir Berry saying they might strip the pensions off the execs. Presumably it'll be all right then?

    PLus the instant response is to return with all the approving annual reports and other validations, you know, like CBEs. And get one of those barrister chappies to ask "You want to strip the pension rights now? After approving everything for years on end?"
    Much as I would like to see it, I don't think you could legally attack the pensions of the PO Board.

    I wouldn't want the law trampled over in the rush for revenge.
  • Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    I think we start to see exactly why the Tories have been so desperate to muck spread this one. In reality they are in it up to their eyeballs. Best approach is try and make others look guilty first out of the blocks, so that any story about them has less impact.

    Watch Hislop skewer the Tory line where it’s supposedly all Starmer and Davey. He isn’t just mocking it, he is furious.
  • Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    Thanks Ben.

    I seem to be well above the rest on Lab Maj. I took the figure off Electoral Calculus, and I'm surprised others didn't do likewise.

    No matter. It's good to be the outlier. FPTP is my friend. :)

    I see that even those predicting NOM (including myself) have all gone for Lab most seats.

    Sunak is toast.
    Outcomes are possible where Labour doesn't get most seats but are still able to cobble together a government of sorts (which won't last long).
    Yes literally everyone in the contest has Starmer as PM, and there are even further possibilities.

    Only @Ghedebrav thinks interest rates won't come down, and no one thinks they might go up

    The highest CPI prediction is 5.9% too.

    I am not entirely convinced by the wisdom of crowds, its not just Davey that we are unanimous over.
    One person did have a Con majority of 20, and one other entrant had Reeves rather than Starmer as Labour leader.
    Are we talking of Sea Shanty's exotica here?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,388
    edited January 14

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    Thanks Ben.

    I seem to be well above the rest on Lab Maj. I took the figure off Electoral Calculus, and I'm surprised others didn't do likewise.

    No matter. It's good to be the outlier. FPTP is my friend. :)

    I see that even those predicting NOM (including myself) have all gone for Lab most seats.

    Sunak is toast.
    Outcomes are possible where Labour doesn't get most seats but are still able to cobble together a government of sorts (which won't last long).
    Yes literally everyone in the contest has Starmer as PM, and there are even further possibilities.

    Only @Ghedebrav thinks interest rates won't come down, and no one thinks they might go up

    The highest CPI prediction is 5.9% too.

    I am not entirely convinced by the wisdom of crowds, its not just Davey that we are unanimous over.
    One person did have a Con majority of 20, and one other entrant had Reeves rather than Starmer as Labour leader.
    Apologies to @Mexicanpete and @bigjohnowls !
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,454
    darkage said:

    Interesting how so many more posters predict Biden as POTUS, despite Trump being the current favourite.

    It’s coz PBers simply can’t bear the idea of Trump winning. I sympathise - a Trump victory would be scary - but these emotions are not a good basis for cold calm predictions
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,454

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    I think we start to see exactly why the Tories have been so desperate to muck spread this one. In reality they are in it up to their eyeballs. Best approach is try and make others look guilty first out of the blocks, so that any story about them has less impact.

    Watch Hislop skewer the Tory line where it’s supposedly all Starmer and Davey. He isn’t just mocking it, he is furious.
    Hislop hasn’t successfully skewered anything since the late 1900s
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,037
    edited January 14
    Foxy said:

    Former Gambino crime family underboss Sammy 'the Bull' Gravano says Donald Trump is incorruptible.
    Trump thanks him and posts veiled threat to judges.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpfshnAjuzE

    As being POTUS was Trump's only office, how could he know?
    During the period that Gravano was murdering and stealing his way across New York. Donald Trump was a property developer, of some scale.

    Gravano was murdering people, in a large part, to retain control for the Gambino family in the construction rackets.

    You couldn’t build anything in New York at that time without making a deal with the Mob.The controlled the unions, trucking, concrete, steel delivery….
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,464

    Meanwhile, in broken Tory Britain, Bournemouth council on the verge of bankruptcy thanks in part to a high SEND bill.

    Tories cut council funding. Tories cut funding for early years intervention. Tories claim surprise that all these people need funding.

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/jan/13/uk-council-bournemouth-christchurch-poole-could-go-bust-due-to-60m-hole-in-special-needs-spending

    And there is also, of course, the bit about central government imposing requirements and costs in the first place ...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,917

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    I think we start to see exactly why the Tories have been so desperate to muck spread this one. In reality they are in it up to their eyeballs. Best approach is try and make others look guilty first out of the blocks, so that any story about them has less impact.

    Watch Hislop skewer the Tory line where it’s supposedly all Starmer and Davey. He isn’t just mocking it, he is furious.
    King of the North, Anglesey Jake isn't the most compelling of Tory rampers, which is perhaps why Hislop lost his """".
  • Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    Cabinet Office was Feb 2019, so Theresa May. She resigned in March 2020, so Johnson kept her on for a significant term.

    Yeah, but Johnson probably didn't know who she was. As for the Cabinet Office, he probably thought that's where the drinks were kept.

    The Scandal does in fact have some unlikely heroes. Johnson is I think one, in that he set up the Inquiry. I believe he was genuinely horrified at what he was hearing. The Daily Mail is another. It was I believe the only tabloid to latch on early.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,454
    Picture quiz. There is something deeply jarring about this photo. What is it?



  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,492
    And here is the summary of the non-numerical answers, by frequency of choice:

    image
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,454
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    I think we start to see exactly why the Tories have been so desperate to muck spread this one. In reality they are in it up to their eyeballs. Best approach is try and make others look guilty first out of the blocks, so that any story about them has less impact.

    Watch Hislop skewer the Tory line where it’s supposedly all Starmer and Davey. He isn’t just mocking it, he is furious.
    Hislop hasn’t successfully skewered anything since the late 1900s
    Private Eye has been covering this story prominently for over a decade.

    Amid the jokes and satire it is one of the few places with serious investigative reporting in our press. I think much comes from journalists unable to get published in more mainstream press.

    I am old enough to remember @leonadamus saying this is a boring and tedious story that no one should bother with.
    Oh I’ve no doubt about that. Well done them - and Computer Weekly. My kvetch is with Hislop. He’s smug, self satisfied and hasn’t been funny for at least three decades. HIGNFY is achingly cringe - it should have been put to sleep in about 2002
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,492
    Leon said:

    Picture quiz. There is something deeply jarring about this photo. What is it?



    Ashtray
  • Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Interesting how so many more posters predict Biden as POTUS, despite Trump being the current favourite.

    It’s coz PBers simply can’t bear the idea of Trump winning. I sympathise - a Trump victory would be scary - but these emotions are not a good basis for cold calm predictions
    It's just for fun, Leon, so no need to hide one's sentiments. It's when the money goes down you have to be icy cold in your judgement.

    I once backed Le Pen for the French presidency. OK, she didn't win but the odds were fantastic.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191

    Leon said:

    Picture quiz. There is something deeply jarring about this photo. What is it?



    Ashtray
    Its enormity is particularly jarring.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,388

    And here is the summary of the non-numerical answers, by frequency of choice:

    image

    Is the person predicting Christie the first out?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,454

    Leon said:

    Picture quiz. There is something deeply jarring about this photo. What is it?



    Ashtray
    Close. But no cigar!! Ahahah

    No it’s something else….
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,917

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    Cabinet Office was Feb 2019, so Theresa May. She resigned in March 2020, so Johnson kept her on for a significant term.

    Yeah, but Johnson probably didn't know who she was. As for the Cabinet Office, he probably thought that's where the drinks were kept.

    The Scandal does in fact have some unlikely heroes. Johnson is I think one, in that he set up the Inquiry. I believe he was genuinely horrified at what he was hearing. The Daily Mail is another. It was I believe the only tabloid to latch on early.
    The Mail have been surprisingly moderated in their takedown of Starmer over the Post Office scandal. The Telegraph on the other hand has been relentless alongside GBNews (with the BBC joining in a little too). Do we no longer have a Broadcasting Standards Commission?
  • Oh dear.

    Alan Bates letters show Tories ignored the postmasters too

    Even when it was clear where the battle over wrongful convictions was heading, the government did not act


    By January 2020, Alan Bates was almost at his wits’ end. A month earlier, he and 550 sub-postmasters wrongly persecuted by the Post Office had won a stunning victory in the High Court, with a judge ruling once and for all that the Horizon IT system was defective.

    Bates should have been delighted. Instead he was furious at the continued refusal of the government to come to the sub-postmasters’ aid. Despite their victory, the £57 million they received from the Post Office equated to only about £20,000 each after legal costs.

    In a letter addressed to Kelly Tolhurst, the ninth postal affairs minister since 2010, Bates said her predecessors had, either “intentionally or by ignorance”, failed to hold the Post Office to account, and their “dismissive responses” had forced the victims to “expose the truth” at great personal cost. He demanded the government pay the sub-postmasters’ legal costs — £47 million in total. Tolhurst refused.

    It was typical of the intransigence Bates encountered from 2015, as Conservative ministers in the Department for Business, much like their Liberal Democrat predecessors in the coalition government, failed to shake off a “computer says no” mentality.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/alan-bates-letters-show-tories-ignored-the-postmasters-too-jc7bgxmqr
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,464
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Picture quiz. There is something deeply jarring about this photo. What is it?



    Ashtray
    Close. But no cigar!! Ahahah

    No it’s something else….
    Artificial stone (if it is). Which always jars. And relative lack of high-rises.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,169

    Farage would get elected in Clacton, suggests a poll of 509:

    RFM 37%
    CON 27%
    LAB 23%
    LDM 6%

    https://t.co/WBViKofFhs

    Go Nigel go!

    He wouldn't.

    He's bloody awful at managing a ground game, and he'd be outboxxed. Again.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,454

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Interesting how so many more posters predict Biden as POTUS, despite Trump being the current favourite.

    It’s coz PBers simply can’t bear the idea of Trump winning. I sympathise - a Trump victory would be scary - but these emotions are not a good basis for cold calm predictions
    It's just for fun, Leon, so no need to hide one's sentiments. It's when the money goes down you have to be icy cold in your judgement.

    I once backed Le Pen for the French presidency. OK, she didn't win but the odds were fantastic.
    I disagree. I reckon for an awful lot of people a Trump victory is emotionally unthinkable (because it is so morally repellant and scarily destabilising) so they literally can’t think of it, even in a quiz-for-fun
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,169

    And here is the summary of the non-numerical answers, by frequency of choice:

    image

    Well done Ben! Really good of you to do this.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,917
    Leon said:

    Picture quiz. There is something deeply jarring about this photo. What is it?



    The time hasn't yet arrived today when you start consuming your beer from your ashtray?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,492
    Leon said:

    Well done @Benpointer - I didn’t enter coz I can’t win (don’t care enough to think about some of the questions) but it looks mighty impressive when tabulated

    Interestingly the Biden/Trump dichotomy divides really predictably on political grounds. Nearly all of the few people predicting a Trump victory are on “the right” as far as I can see, and FWIW

    This makes me suspect hopecasting, not forecasting

    Thanks. I am sure there's a lot of hopecasting (from me, certainly). Also, the challenge of 'how could anyone possible vote for xxxxx' (where xxxxx is someone I can't stand). I suspect that drives betting too.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,169
    Leon said:

    Picture quiz. There is something deeply jarring about this photo. What is it?



    That you're posting it on here, yet again?
  • Leon said:

    Well done @Benpointer - I didn’t enter coz I can’t win (don’t care enough to think about some of the questions) but it looks mighty impressive when tabulated

    Interestingly the Biden/Trump dichotomy divides really predictably on political grounds. Nearly all of the few people predicting a Trump victory are on “the right” as far as I can see, and FWIW

    This makes me suspect hopecasting, not forecasting

    So all those right wingers that predicted a Biden win...

    Anyhoo I tell you what is hopecasting, writing a post BTL on PB comparing Biden to recent one term Presidents and forgetting the most recent one term POTUS which is what you recently did.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,908

    Farage would get elected in Clacton, suggests a poll of 509:

    RFM 37%
    CON 27%
    LAB 23%
    LDM 6%

    https://t.co/WBViKofFhs

    Go Nigel go!

    Well UKIP did win Clacton in 2015
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,169
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    I think we start to see exactly why the Tories have been so desperate to muck spread this one. In reality they are in it up to their eyeballs. Best approach is try and make others look guilty first out of the blocks, so that any story about them has less impact.

    Watch Hislop skewer the Tory line where it’s supposedly all Starmer and Davey. He isn’t just mocking it, he is furious.
    Hislop hasn’t successfully skewered anything since the late 1900s
    Hislop has become obsessive and very angry.

    Another example of what BDS and social media can do to you.
  • Thanks for doing this Ben.

    Absolutely, Ben is a star.

    We're going to have a lot of fun with these predictions over the next 12 months.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,454
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Picture quiz. There is something deeply jarring about this photo. What is it?



    Ashtray
    Close. But no cigar!! Ahahah

    No it’s something else….
    Artificial stone (if it is). Which always jars. And relative lack of high-rises.
    No it’s an historic thing. I’ve made it really hard

    Here’s another view from my new hotel room which gives you more idea

    The answer is truly jarring


  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,492
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Picture quiz. There is something deeply jarring about this photo. What is it?



    Ashtray
    Close. But no cigar!! Ahahah

    No it’s something else….
    No alcohol?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,464
    edited January 14

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    I think we start to see exactly why the Tories have been so desperate to muck spread this one. In reality they are in it up to their eyeballs. Best approach is try and make others look guilty first out of the blocks, so that any story about them has less impact.

    Watch Hislop skewer the Tory line where it’s supposedly all Starmer and Davey. He isn’t just mocking it, he is furious.
    The award is, nevertheless, important, because the Tories themselves put so much stress on the honours system (see PB passim). Those of us who espouse the views of R. Burns [edit! too early ,,,,] (A man's a man for a that, etc.) find it difficult to appreciate the strength of their obsession - so no wonder that CBE is such an issue in their sight.

    Interesting that yesterday our resident Tory was trying to claim, in the middle of smearing Mr Mandelson (as he then was), that it was the Department for Business who put up the Rev Vennells for the award. As if it was some sort of AI or perhaps the nasty civil servants did it and ran away, and there wasn't a Tory within 256 perches when it happened.
  • Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    Thanks Ben.

    I seem to be well above the rest on Lab Maj. I took the figure off Electoral Calculus, and I'm surprised others didn't do likewise.

    No matter. It's good to be the outlier. FPTP is my friend. :)

    I see that even those predicting NOM (including myself) have all gone for Lab most seats.

    Sunak is toast.
    Outcomes are possible where Labour doesn't get most seats but are still able to cobble together a government of sorts (which won't last long).
    Yes literally everyone in the contest has Starmer as PM, and there are even further possibilities.

    Only @Ghedebrav thinks interest rates won't come down, and no one thinks they might go up

    The highest CPI prediction is 5.9% too.

    I am not entirely convinced by the wisdom of crowds, its not just Davey that we are unanimous over.
    There's no particular reason the "wisdom of crowds" should work in the context of a PB prediction contest. Firstly, some of the outcomes are binary (e.g. leader/not leader) so you're not averaging anything out in those cases. Secondly, because it's a prediction competition, it's influenced by subsequent events which people can't and don't have knowledge of. Thirdly, and perhaps most importantly, the assumption of independence is violated - opinions are determined, to a reasonably high degree, by others in the group.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Interesting how so many more posters predict Biden as POTUS, despite Trump being the current favourite.

    It’s coz PBers simply can’t bear the idea of Trump winning. I sympathise - a Trump victory would be scary - but these emotions are not a good basis for cold calm predictions
    It's just for fun, Leon, so no need to hide one's sentiments. It's when the money goes down you have to be icy cold in your judgement.

    I once backed Le Pen for the French presidency. OK, she didn't win but the odds were fantastic.
    I disagree. I reckon for an awful lot of people a Trump victory is emotionally unthinkable (because it is so morally repellant and scarily destabilising) so they literally can’t think of it, even in a quiz-for-fun
    Er....yes, I think that's the point I was trying to make.

    It's early.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,169

    maxh said:

    maxh said:

    I didn't enter, but thanks for this.

    It'd be interesting to know the mean/median/mode for the categories they apply to, such as 1, 7, 8, 9, and 10, and perhaps which poster was nearest the average, Understand that would be extra work, so ignore this if you want.

    Again, thanks.

    Agreed.

    Not least because I can see a betting angle. I am so woefully poor at political betting myself, but the wisdom of crowds effect should make the averages from this list a decent betting proposition.
    Max, you need to see if you can get a copy of Against The Crowd, by Alan Potts. It's an old work but never been bettered.

    It will change your views on betting, and hopefully your fortunes.
    Thanks, will do!

    Though, to reassure you, the scales of my stakes are such that my fortune, such as it is, is not much affected either way!
    One of his many words of wisdom is that you should let your tummy tell you how much to stake. If you have no butterflies at all, you are betting too little. If too many, you are overstaking.

    The absolute level doesn't matter. You bet at the level you are comfortable with.
    Not good advice for an addict, though, as the butterfly/ adrenaline rush signals are totally off and extremely skewed.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,917
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Picture quiz. There is something deeply jarring about this photo. What is it?



    Ashtray
    Close. But no cigar!! Ahahah

    No it’s something else….
    The beer is alcohol free?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,454

    Leon said:

    Picture quiz. There is something deeply jarring about this photo. What is it?



    That you're posting it on here, yet again?
    The answer is compelling
  • HYUFD said:

    Farage would get elected in Clacton, suggests a poll of 509:

    RFM 37%
    CON 27%
    LAB 23%
    LDM 6%

    https://t.co/WBViKofFhs

    Go Nigel go!

    Well UKIP did win Clacton in 2015
    That was down to Douglas Carswell not Farage.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,948

    Meanwhile:

    The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, the former Ukip donor, suggested that Farage would win 37 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex, beating the Tory incumbent by ten percentage points.

    Responding to its findings, Farage said: “I have to say to you that this poll does make the balance of probabilities towards getting back on the pitch stronger. This poll does make me consider getting back on the pitch far more seriously than ever before.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d5d2faba-9d73-4753-a10f-980be039011e?shareToken=0365f891b5fdd14031cb27cf9b5dbcc3

    From memory, I think that would bring him up to eight consecutive election defeats?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,137
    Leon said:

    Picture quiz. There is something deeply jarring about this photo. What is it?



    Ashtray? Glass that changes shape halfway down? No sign of life outside?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,454
    edited January 14

    Leon said:

    Well done @Benpointer - I didn’t enter coz I can’t win (don’t care enough to think about some of the questions) but it looks mighty impressive when tabulated

    Interestingly the Biden/Trump dichotomy divides really predictably on political grounds. Nearly all of the few people predicting a Trump victory are on “the right” as far as I can see, and FWIW

    This makes me suspect hopecasting, not forecasting

    Thanks. I am sure there's a lot of hopecasting (from me, certainly). Also, the challenge of 'how could anyone possible vote for xxxxx' (where xxxxx is someone I can't stand). I suspect that drives betting too.
    Yes definitely. It’s why you should always bet against England in the footie. So many England fans make wagers out of emotions
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,037

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    The question of guilt and innocence in this matter goes like this, I think -

    1) When did you find out?
    2) Did you then
    a) Organise a coverup, lie etc
    b) Do nothing
    c) Try and help the SPMs

    Ed Davey didn’t know, at the time of the enquiry, because he was lied to. The guilty people - *at that point* - were the chain of those who arranged for him to receive lies.

    Think of the knowledge of the scandal spreading upwards in a tree, from the roots.
  • maxh said:

    maxh said:

    I didn't enter, but thanks for this.

    It'd be interesting to know the mean/median/mode for the categories they apply to, such as 1, 7, 8, 9, and 10, and perhaps which poster was nearest the average, Understand that would be extra work, so ignore this if you want.

    Again, thanks.

    Agreed.

    Not least because I can see a betting angle. I am so woefully poor at political betting myself, but the wisdom of crowds effect should make the averages from this list a decent betting proposition.
    Max, you need to see if you can get a copy of Against The Crowd, by Alan Potts. It's an old work but never been bettered.

    It will change your views on betting, and hopefully your fortunes.
    Thanks, will do!

    Though, to reassure you, the scales of my stakes are such that my fortune, such as it is, is not much affected either way!
    One of his many words of wisdom is that you should let your tummy tell you how much to stake. If you have no butterflies at all, you are betting too little. If too many, you are overstaking.

    The absolute level doesn't matter. You bet at the level you are comfortable with.
    Not good advice for an addict, though, as the butterfly/ adrenaline rush signals are totally off and extremely skewed.
    Yes, I thought of that, but addicts are beyond the help of sensible advice anyway (on betting or anything else.)

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,492

    And here is the summary of the non-numerical answers, by frequency of choice:

    image

    Well done Ben! Really good of you to do this.
    Just my small contribution to improving the nation's woeful productivity. Oh...
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 928

    IANAStatistician but here's my simple analysis of the entries for the numerical PB Prediction questions:

    image

    Interesting distribution on the election date, where the modal answer is also the lowest.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,276
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    I think we start to see exactly why the Tories have been so desperate to muck spread this one. In reality they are in it up to their eyeballs. Best approach is try and make others look guilty first out of the blocks, so that any story about them has less impact.

    Watch Hislop skewer the Tory line where it’s supposedly all Starmer and Davey. He isn’t just mocking it, he is furious.
    Hislop hasn’t successfully skewered anything since the late 1900s
    Private Eye has been covering this story prominently for over a decade.

    Amid the jokes and satire it is one of the few places with serious investigative reporting in our press. I think much comes from journalists unable to get published in more mainstream press.

    I am old enough to remember @leonadamus saying this is a boring and tedious story that no one should bother with.
    And for those who worry about such things, it sells more copies than The Spectator.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,454

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    I think we start to see exactly why the Tories have been so desperate to muck spread this one. In reality they are in it up to their eyeballs. Best approach is try and make others look guilty first out of the blocks, so that any story about them has less impact.

    Watch Hislop skewer the Tory line where it’s supposedly all Starmer and Davey. He isn’t just mocking it, he is furious.
    Hislop hasn’t successfully skewered anything since the late 1900s
    Hislop has become obsessive and very angry.

    Another example of what BDS and social media can do to you.
    And angry obsession does not make for good comedy
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,169
    Leon said:

    Well done @Benpointer - I didn’t enter coz I can’t win (don’t care enough to think about some of the questions) but it looks mighty impressive when tabulated

    Interestingly the Biden/Trump dichotomy divides really predictably on political grounds. Nearly all of the few people predicting a Trump victory are on “the right” as far as I can see, and FWIW

    This makes me suspect hopecasting, not forecasting

    Most people forecast by taking present day trends and projecting them into the future, with a tiny bit of variation around the mean if they're feeling daring. The peripheral stuff is very easily missed.

    I don't do it because I simply don't know and I change my mind on betting and forecasts all the time. I don't want to have a position that I feel obligated to defend because I'm a sage if I happen to be right or a Roger/Leondamus if I don't, neither of which would be true.

    I know it's boring and a bit of a cop out but i prefer absolute flexibility.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,917

    Leon said:

    Picture quiz. There is something deeply jarring about this photo. What is it?



    Ashtray? Glass that changes shape halfway down? No sign of life outside?
    A tiny balcony for such an important guest?
This discussion has been closed.