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PB Predictions Competition 2024 – Entries – politicalbetting.com

24

Comments

  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,068

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Interesting how so many more posters predict Biden as POTUS, despite Trump being the current favourite.

    It’s coz PBers simply can’t bear the idea of Trump winning. I sympathise - a Trump victory would be scary - but these emotions are not a good basis for cold calm predictions
    It's just for fun, Leon, so no need to hide one's sentiments. It's when the money goes down you have to be icy cold in your judgement.

    I once backed Le Pen for the French presidency. OK, she didn't win but the odds were fantastic.
    I’m surprised there’s a hopecast bias in the Trump predictions. He’s one of those where there’s a huge amount of fearcasting and catastrophism among anti-Trump people, particularly in the US.

    However, it may be that right wingers are more exposed through their social media curation to the aggressive anti-Biden feeling among a large part of the US online electorate. Liberals are less likely to see that, and so probably apply the same swingback thinking that almost all are doing for the Tory seat count at the next election.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,962

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    It looks like John Sweeney may be in the running for Hamble Valley for the LDs.

    https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1746317986175107521?t=b9wllVj8amHBdNKAy6gIaA&s=19

    A new seat made out of bits of Eastleigh and Fareham, with a small bit from Winchester - he could be in with a chance?
    If the Conservatives really fall apart (not impossible), then who knows? I imagine that Winchester and Eastleigh are higher campaigning priorities for Lib Dems in Hampshire, though.

    For fans of business'n'bonking soap operas, we're basically talking Howard's Way land here.
    Suella is one of the current MPs down there; offered as a factoid without comment.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,771

    Leon said:

    Picture quiz. There is something deeply jarring about this photo. What is it?



    Ashtray? Glass that changes shape halfway down? No sign of life outside?
    A tiny balcony for such an important guest?
    Final clue. Look at the washing. The clothes being dried


  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,068
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    It looks like John Sweeney may be in the running for Hamble Valley for the LDs.

    https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1746317986175107521?t=b9wllVj8amHBdNKAy6gIaA&s=19

    A new seat made out of bits of Eastleigh and Fareham, with a small bit from Winchester - he could be in with a chance?
    If the Conservatives really fall apart (not impossible), then who knows? I imagine that Winchester and Eastleigh are higher campaigning priorities for Lib Dems in Hampshire, though.

    For fans of business'n'bonking soap operas, we're basically talking Howard's Way land here.
    Suella is one of the current MPs down there; offered as a factoid without comment.
    This little sub-topic now has the Howard’s Way theme tune implanted as todays ear worm.

    The most ‘80s (British made) drama series on TV.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,962
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    I think we start to see exactly why the Tories have been so desperate to muck spread this one. In reality they are in it up to their eyeballs. Best approach is try and make others look guilty first out of the blocks, so that any story about them has less impact.

    Watch Hislop skewer the Tory line where it’s supposedly all Starmer and Davey. He isn’t just mocking it, he is furious.
    Hislop hasn’t successfully skewered anything since the late 1900s
    Private Eye has been covering this story prominently for over a decade.

    Amid the jokes and satire it is one of the few places with serious investigative reporting in our press. I think much comes from journalists unable to get published in more mainstream press.

    I am old enough to remember @leonadamus saying this is a boring and tedious story that no one should bother with.
    Well, the story has surprised on the upside now, hasn't it?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,307
    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    It looks like John Sweeney may be in the running for Hamble Valley for the LDs.

    https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1746317986175107521?t=b9wllVj8amHBdNKAy6gIaA&s=19

    A new seat made out of bits of Eastleigh and Fareham, with a small bit from Winchester - he could be in with a chance?
    If the Conservatives really fall apart (not impossible), then who knows? I imagine that Winchester and Eastleigh are higher campaigning priorities for Lib Dems in Hampshire, though.

    For fans of business'n'bonking soap operas, we're basically talking Howard's Way land here.
    Suella is one of the current MPs down there; offered as a factoid without comment.
    This little sub-topic now has the Howard’s Way theme tune implanted as todays ear worm.

    The most ‘80s (British made) drama series on TV.
    You mean it will be Always There?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,760
    pm215 said:

    IANAStatistician but here's my simple analysis of the entries for the numerical PB Prediction questions:

    image

    Interesting distribution on the election date, where the modal answer is also the lowest.
    It's also clearly the most sensible date for the country.

    It gives Sunak time to deliver a tax-cutting budget, since it appears that against all economic good sense he must.

    It also saves half the country voting twice, as it combines with the local elections*.

    It avoids holiday periods, bad weather, dark evenings.

    Every autumn date has issues as we have expounded at length on here.

    For all these reasons 2nd May is clearly the the only sensible date. So sod-all chance Sunak will choose it.

    (*Labour should ask what the added cost to the country is of not combining the local and general elections.)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,081
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Well done @Benpointer - I didn’t enter coz I can’t win (don’t care enough to think about some of the questions) but it looks mighty impressive when tabulated

    Interestingly the Biden/Trump dichotomy divides really predictably on political grounds. Nearly all of the few people predicting a Trump victory are on “the right” as far as I can see, and FWIW

    This makes me suspect hopecasting, not forecasting

    Thanks. I am sure there's a lot of hopecasting (from me, certainly). Also, the challenge of 'how could anyone possible vote for xxxxx' (where xxxxx is someone I can't stand). I suspect that drives betting too.
    Yes definitely. It’s why you should always bet against England in the footie. So many England fans make wagers out of emotions
    I'd want to see evidence this is still valid before risking the rent money. It may well be so with conventional bookmakers but football betting globally is dominated by the Far East, and even at home punters are familiar with the leading foreign players in a way that would not have been true when Horizon was implemented.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,962
    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    It looks like John Sweeney may be in the running for Hamble Valley for the LDs.

    https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1746317986175107521?t=b9wllVj8amHBdNKAy6gIaA&s=19

    A new seat made out of bits of Eastleigh and Fareham, with a small bit from Winchester - he could be in with a chance?
    If the Conservatives really fall apart (not impossible), then who knows? I imagine that Winchester and Eastleigh are higher campaigning priorities for Lib Dems in Hampshire, though.

    For fans of business'n'bonking soap operas, we're basically talking Howard's Way land here.
    Suella is one of the current MPs down there; offered as a factoid without comment.
    This little sub-topic now has the Howard’s Way theme tune implanted as todays ear worm.

    The most ‘80s (British made) drama series on TV.
    The surprise is that it was one of the last works of Gerard Glaister, who created the much earlier Colditz series, and also Secret Army - probably the best BBC TV drama series ever made.
  • ...

    Farage would get elected in Clacton, suggests a poll of 509:

    RFM 37%
    CON 27%
    LAB 23%
    LDM 6%

    https://t.co/WBViKofFhs

    Go Nigel go!

    Wasn't Thanet a shoo-in once?

    Although with the recently fun-washed Nige, fresh from taking down Starmer for vexatiously prosecuting all the sub-Postmasters, who knows?

    With a year and nine days to the General Election, the voters might have forgotten about Post Officegate by 23/1/2025. Just three days after Trump's inauguration.

    Yes, I have the Back to the Future Almanac.
    *giggles* yes, a January 2025 election. The various points where he needs to pull the lever for an election later than 2nd May all have massive political problems. Namely being catastrophically behind in the polls. So indecision is the easiest decision and the can gets kicked. A wild card election where “anything could happen campaigning over Christmas” feels like the best chance.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,504
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Picture quiz. There is something deeply jarring about this photo. What is it?



    Ashtray? Glass that changes shape halfway down? No sign of life outside?
    A tiny balcony for such an important guest?
    Final clue. Look at the washing. The clothes being dried


    Cooling the car interior with a towel over the window? We older Brits have specialist equipment from Halfords to serve that function. Was that your revelation?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,760
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Picture quiz. There is something deeply jarring about this photo. What is it?



    Ashtray? Glass that changes shape halfway down? No sign of life outside?
    A tiny balcony for such an important guest?
    Final clue. Look at the washing. The clothes being dried


    Bored now
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,068
    IanB2 said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    It looks like John Sweeney may be in the running for Hamble Valley for the LDs.

    https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1746317986175107521?t=b9wllVj8amHBdNKAy6gIaA&s=19

    A new seat made out of bits of Eastleigh and Fareham, with a small bit from Winchester - he could be in with a chance?
    If the Conservatives really fall apart (not impossible), then who knows? I imagine that Winchester and Eastleigh are higher campaigning priorities for Lib Dems in Hampshire, though.

    For fans of business'n'bonking soap operas, we're basically talking Howard's Way land here.
    Suella is one of the current MPs down there; offered as a factoid without comment.
    This little sub-topic now has the Howard’s Way theme tune implanted as todays ear worm.

    The most ‘80s (British made) drama series on TV.
    The surprise is that it was one of the last works of Gerard Glaister, who created the much earlier Colditz series, and also Secret Army - probably the best BBC TV drama series ever made.
    Really? They didn’t have such catchy theme tunes though.

    It’s never been repeated on mainstream TV, at least not as far as I know.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,032

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Picture quiz. There is something deeply jarring about this photo. What is it?



    Ashtray? Glass that changes shape halfway down? No sign of life outside?
    A tiny balcony for such an important guest?
    Final clue. Look at the washing. The clothes being dried


    Cooling the car interior with a towel over the window? We older Brits have specialist equipment from Halfords to serve that function. Was that your revelation?
    They have parish stupas in Phnom Penh? You know, like parish kirks in Wick?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,760

    Leon said:

    Well done @Benpointer - I didn’t enter coz I can’t win (don’t care enough to think about some of the questions) but it looks mighty impressive when tabulated

    Interestingly the Biden/Trump dichotomy divides really predictably on political grounds. Nearly all of the few people predicting a Trump victory are on “the right” as far as I can see, and FWIW

    This makes me suspect hopecasting, not forecasting

    Most people forecast by taking present day trends and projecting them into the future, with a tiny bit of variation around the mean if they're feeling daring. The peripheral stuff is very easily missed.

    I don't do it because I simply don't know and I change my mind on betting and forecasts all the time. I don't want to have a position that I feel obligated to defend because I'm a sage if I happen to be right or a Roger/Leondamus if I don't, neither of which would be true.

    I know it's boring and a bit of a cop out but i prefer absolute flexibility.
    I reserve the right to change my mind and disown my earlier predictions whenever.

    But seriously you are not alone among prominent Peers who decided not to enter, and that's absolutely fine of course.
  • Well.


  • Thanks for doing this Ben.

    Absolutely, Ben is a star.

    We're going to have a lot of fun with these predictions over the next 12 months.
    I’ve already changed my mind about the election date - now 23rd January 2025 - and therefore the result - Labour by 150+
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,397
    edited January 14

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    Cabinet Office was Feb 2019, so Theresa May. She resigned in March 2020, so Johnson kept her on for a significant term.

    Yeah, but Johnson probably didn't know who she was. As for the Cabinet Office, he probably thought that's where the drinks were kept.

    The Scandal does in fact have some unlikely heroes. Johnson is I think one, in that he set up the Inquiry. I believe he was genuinely horrified at what he was hearing. The Daily Mail is another. It was I believe the only tabloid to latch on early.
    The Mail have been surprisingly moderated in their takedown of Starmer over the Post Office scandal. The Telegraph on the other hand has been relentless alongside GBNews (with the BBC joining in a little too). Do we no longer have a Broadcasting Standards Commission?
    Casino Royal hit a nail squarely on the head when he wrote recently that the Scandal offended the British sense of fair play and this accounts for the ferocity of the public reaction, generally across party-lines. The Mail and its readers are representative in this sense.

    The Starmer thing is nonsense and the little traction it has found will diminish in time. There's a little bit more to the Davy-bashing, but not a lot.

    I'm interested that the name of Kelly Tolhurst has surfaced. She was the relevant Minister at a crucial period, notably when the ill-judged preferments were handed to Vennells.

    The current relevant Minister, Kemi Badenoch continues to be mysteriously quiet. Is she on leave?
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,242
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    I think we start to see exactly why the Tories have been so desperate to muck spread this one. In reality they are in it up to their eyeballs. Best approach is try and make others look guilty first out of the blocks, so that any story about them has less impact.

    Watch Hislop skewer the Tory line where it’s supposedly all Starmer and Davey. He isn’t just mocking it, he is furious.
    Hislop hasn’t successfully skewered anything since the late 1900s
    Private Eye has been covering this story prominently for over a decade.

    Amid the jokes and satire it is one of the few places with serious investigative reporting in our press. I think much comes from journalists unable to get published in more mainstream press.

    I am old enough to remember @leonadamus saying this is a boring and tedious story that no one should bother with.
    Oh I’ve no doubt about that. Well done them - and Computer Weekly. My kvetch is with Hislop. He’s smug, self satisfied and hasn’t been funny for at least three decades. HIGNFY is achingly cringe - it should have been put to sleep in about 2002
    Nah it’s simply left of centre people being funny. Which is extremely rare, usually we’re far too earnest.

    Merton in particular is outstanding imo.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,504

    ...

    Farage would get elected in Clacton, suggests a poll of 509:

    RFM 37%
    CON 27%
    LAB 23%
    LDM 6%

    https://t.co/WBViKofFhs

    Go Nigel go!

    Wasn't Thanet a shoo-in once?

    Although with the recently fun-washed Nige, fresh from taking down Starmer for vexatiously prosecuting all the sub-Postmasters, who knows?

    With a year and nine days to the General Election, the voters might have forgotten about Post Officegate by 23/1/2025. Just three days after Trump's inauguration.

    Yes, I have the Back to the Future Almanac.
    *giggles* yes, a January 2025 election. The various points where he needs to pull the lever for an election later than 2nd May all have massive political problems. Namely being catastrophically behind in the polls. So indecision is the easiest decision and the can gets kicked. A wild card election where “anything could happen campaigning over Christmas” feels like the best chance.
    Imagine if Sunak had the foresight to have booked the election for last Thursday, at the height of Starmergate/Daveygate.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,307

    ...

    Farage would get elected in Clacton, suggests a poll of 509:

    RFM 37%
    CON 27%
    LAB 23%
    LDM 6%

    https://t.co/WBViKofFhs

    Go Nigel go!

    Wasn't Thanet a shoo-in once?

    Although with the recently fun-washed Nige, fresh from taking down Starmer for vexatiously prosecuting all the sub-Postmasters, who knows?

    With a year and nine days to the General Election, the voters might have forgotten about Post Officegate by 23/1/2025. Just three days after Trump's inauguration.

    Yes, I have the Back to the Future Almanac.
    *giggles* yes, a January 2025 election. The various points where he needs to pull the lever for an election later than 2nd May all have massive political problems. Namely being catastrophically behind in the polls. So indecision is the easiest decision and the can gets kicked. A wild card election where “anything could happen campaigning over Christmas” feels like the best chance.
    Imagine if Sunak had the foresight to have booked the election for last Thursday, at the height of Starmergate/Daveygate.
    If the polls are anything to go by, he would have lost horrifically.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,760

    Thanks for doing this Ben.

    Absolutely, Ben is a star.

    We're going to have a lot of fun with these predictions over the next 12 months.
    I’ve already changed my mind about the election date - now 23rd January 2025 - and therefore the result - Labour by 150+
    Reflecting on this, it's interesting that no one predicted later than 28th January 2025.

    Tories remaining >20% behind in the polls would constitute a NATIONAL EMERGENCY, surely, thus necessitating an indefinite postponement of the GE.
  • Has anyone counted the number of times @David_Cameron states that @RishiSunak was a strong and capable leader in his start of election year interview this morning ?

    More evidence that Sunak’s strategy has changed from “I am the real change” (as stated at Tory Party Conference) to “Don’t risk change at this dangerous time”


    https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1746465074888274357
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,760

    ...

    Farage would get elected in Clacton, suggests a poll of 509:

    RFM 37%
    CON 27%
    LAB 23%
    LDM 6%

    https://t.co/WBViKofFhs

    Go Nigel go!

    Wasn't Thanet a shoo-in once?

    Although with the recently fun-washed Nige, fresh from taking down Starmer for vexatiously prosecuting all the sub-Postmasters, who knows?

    With a year and nine days to the General Election, the voters might have forgotten about Post Officegate by 23/1/2025. Just three days after Trump's inauguration.

    Yes, I have the Back to the Future Almanac.
    *giggles* yes, a January 2025 election. The various points where he needs to pull the lever for an election later than 2nd May all have massive political problems. Namely being catastrophically behind in the polls. So indecision is the easiest decision and the can gets kicked. A wild card election where “anything could happen campaigning over Christmas” feels like the best chance.
    Imagine if Sunak had the foresight to have booked the election for last Thursday, at the height of Starmergate/Daveygate.
    If the polls are anything to go by, he would have lost horrifically.
    Better than 'catastrophically' or 'existentially'.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,081

    Well.


    The three wise monkeys stamps are an interesting take, although I don't know if that newspaper was known for its campaigning stance on the Post Office scandal. First Minister's BiL in the dock? It's all a bit Hunter Biden but perhaps it will have more traction in Scotland.
  • Well.


    The three wise monkeys stamps are an interesting take, although I don't know if that newspaper was known for its campaigning stance on the Post Office scandal. First Minister's BiL in the dock? It's all a bit Hunter Biden but perhaps it will have more traction in Scotland.
    It was a weird juxtaposition with the main story that struck me.

    As I've said for years, politicians aren't really responsible for their adult relatives.
  • ...

    Farage would get elected in Clacton, suggests a poll of 509:

    RFM 37%
    CON 27%
    LAB 23%
    LDM 6%

    https://t.co/WBViKofFhs

    Go Nigel go!

    Wasn't Thanet a shoo-in once?

    Although with the recently fun-washed Nige, fresh from taking down Starmer for vexatiously prosecuting all the sub-Postmasters, who knows?

    With a year and nine days to the General Election, the voters might have forgotten about Post Officegate by 23/1/2025. Just three days after Trump's inauguration.

    Yes, I have the Back to the Future Almanac.
    *giggles* yes, a January 2025 election. The various points where he needs to pull the lever for an election later than 2nd May all have massive political problems. Namely being catastrophically behind in the polls. So indecision is the easiest decision and the can gets kicked. A wild card election where “anything could happen campaigning over Christmas” feels like the best chance.
    Imagine if Sunak had the foresight to have booked the election for last Thursday, at the height of Starmergate/Daveygate.
    Sunak needs a wildcard. Something to turn up. All the metrics slide further away after 2nd May. Internal fighting hell. An economy where if it recovers people don’t credit the Tories and if they do a giveaway Lizaster budget for a cancelled 2nd May election then it tanks anyway. An armada of small boats over the summer and Rwanda not happening.

    Wait for recovery doesn’t work. It’s like waiting for cancer to go away by itself. So he needs x to happen. Something. Anything. Flaps. Gear. Speed brake. Invert the aircraft - anything to stop the catastrophic headlong dive to the abyss.

    We can’t have a January election because it would be chaos. How do people campaign through Christmas and then the misery month? What about the weather? “Why would you take the risk”? Because risk is all he has left…
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,837

    Leon said:

    Well done @Benpointer - I didn’t enter coz I can’t win (don’t care enough to think about some of the questions) but it looks mighty impressive when tabulated

    Interestingly the Biden/Trump dichotomy divides really predictably on political grounds. Nearly all of the few people predicting a Trump victory are on “the right” as far as I can see, and FWIW

    This makes me suspect hopecasting, not forecasting

    Most people forecast by taking present day trends and projecting them into the future, with a tiny bit of variation around the mean if they're feeling daring. The peripheral stuff is very easily missed.

    I don't do it because I simply don't know and I change my mind on betting and forecasts all the time. I don't want to have a position that I feel obligated to defend because I'm a sage if I happen to be right or a Roger/Leondamus if I don't, neither of which would be true.

    I know it's boring and a bit of a cop out but i prefer absolute flexibility.
    I reserve the right to change my mind and disown my earlier predictions whenever.

    But seriously you are not alone among prominent Peers who decided not to enter, and that's absolutely fine of course.
    My predictions are not particularly related to my real thoughts, just designed to cover areas away from the PB consensus.

    For example I think Con on 175+/-50 is the likely seat outcome rather than NOM.

    There are tactics to this game.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Has anyone counted the number of times @David_Cameron states that @RishiSunak was a strong and capable leader in his start of election year interview this morning ?

    More evidence that Sunak’s strategy has changed from “I am the real change” (as stated at Tory Party Conference) to “Don’t risk change at this dangerous time”


    https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1746465074888274357

    Yes, we should his pronouncements on the matter very seriously. After all, he wisely advised us to sidestep chaos under Ed Miliband. Phew, what a narrow escape that was!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,504

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    Cabinet Office was Feb 2019, so Theresa May. She resigned in March 2020, so Johnson kept her on for a significant term.

    Yeah, but Johnson probably didn't know who she was. As for the Cabinet Office, he probably thought that's where the drinks were kept.

    The Scandal does in fact have some unlikely heroes. Johnson is I think one, in that he set up the Inquiry. I believe he was genuinely horrified at what he was hearing. The Daily Mail is another. It was I believe the only tabloid to latch on early.
    The Mail have been surprisingly moderated in their takedown of Starmer over the Post Office scandal. The Telegraph on the other hand has been relentless alongside GBNews (with the BBC joining in a little too). Do we no longer have a Broadcasting Standards Commission?
    Casino Royal hit a nail squarely on the head when he wrote recently that the Scandal offended the British sense of fair play and this accounts for the ferocity of the public reaction, generally across party-lines. The Mail and its readers are representative in this sense.

    The Starmer thing is nonsense and the little traction it has found will diminish in time. There's a little bit more to the Davy-bashing, but not a lot.

    I'm interested that the name of Kelly Tolhurst has surfaced. She was the relevant Minister at a crucial period, notably when the ill-judged preferments were handed to Vennells.

    The current relevant Minister, Kemi Badenoch continues to be mysteriously quiet. Is she on leave?
    Are you asking why Kemi Badenoch is away from her desk?

    A putsch doesn't organise itself.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,068

    Has anyone counted the number of times @David_Cameron states that @RishiSunak was a strong and capable leader in his start of election year interview this morning ?

    More evidence that Sunak’s strategy has changed from “I am the real change” (as stated at Tory Party Conference) to “Don’t risk change at this dangerous time”


    https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1746465074888274357

    The trouble with that messaging is twofold:

    1. It’s likely to be ignored, because people have decided it’s time for change
    2. In the unlikely event it does resonate with some people, the underlying message is “vote for someone boring and unadventurous”. Starmer is hardly exciting and daring.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,969

    Well.


    The three wise monkeys stamps are an interesting take, although I don't know if that newspaper was known for its campaigning stance on the Post Office scandal. First Minister's BiL in the dock? It's all a bit Hunter Biden but perhaps it will have more traction in Scotland.
    It was a weird juxtaposition with the main story that struck me.

    As I've said for years, politicians aren't really responsible for their adult relatives.
    Agreed. Why is this front page news?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,760
    edited January 14
    Foxy said:

    And here is the summary of the non-numerical answers, by frequency of choice:

    image

    Is the person predicting Christie the first out?
    Nobody goes 'out' for getting a question wrong!

    But the first people definitely not getting 10/10 (or 15/15) are those who predicted a minimum Q1 Labour lead above 14%.

    Edit, along with the Christie predictor - who may have flown too close to the sun with that one.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,229
    Why aren’t we talking about the cultural event of the year? (Two) Spice Girls and (two) All Saints come together to make All Spice at Mel C’s 50th birthday concert: https://youtu.be/FJMDwsN-rfg?si=_XdkJuJ8j-YhSSue
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,771

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Picture quiz. There is something deeply jarring about this photo. What is it?



    Ashtray? Glass that changes shape halfway down? No sign of life outside?
    A tiny balcony for such an important guest?
    Final clue. Look at the washing. The clothes being dried


    Bored now
    A severe lack of imagination! Tsk

    It's obviously a big Buddhist temple, it is obviously in central Phnom Penh; it is obviously an important temple

    The saffron-orange robes - the robes of young monks - hanging out to dry indicate this is also a seminary. A place where traineee monks live and study

    It is, in fact, Wat Botum Vatey, one of the most sacred sites in Cambodia

    "Wat Botum (Khmer: វត្តបទុម, UNGEGN: Vôtt Bâtŭm, ALA-LC: Vatt Padum [ʋɔət ɓɑːtum]; lit. 'Temple of the Lotus Blossoms'), the official name is Wat Botum Vatey Reachavararam (Khmer: វត្តបទុមវតីរាជវរារាម) literally means "The temple of lotus which was built by the king", is a wat (pagoda) located on Phnom Penh, Cambodia. It is to the south of the Royal Palace on the western side of Wat Botum Park.[1] Wat Botum is a Khmer Buddhist pagoda in Phnom Penh, built by King Ponhea Yat (1405-1467) in the 15th century, located south of the Royal Palace of Cambodia. This pagoda is one of the five oldest pagodas in Phnom Penh with ancient origins."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wat_Botum


    What that Wiki site notably does not mention is that the monastery/temple complex was home to a young trainee monk in the 1930s - Saloth Sar

    Otherwise known as Pol Pot

    Like Stalin, he had a religious training


  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,081
    maxh said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    I think we start to see exactly why the Tories have been so desperate to muck spread this one. In reality they are in it up to their eyeballs. Best approach is try and make others look guilty first out of the blocks, so that any story about them has less impact.

    Watch Hislop skewer the Tory line where it’s supposedly all Starmer and Davey. He isn’t just mocking it, he is furious.
    Hislop hasn’t successfully skewered anything since the late 1900s
    Private Eye has been covering this story prominently for over a decade.

    Amid the jokes and satire it is one of the few places with serious investigative reporting in our press. I think much comes from journalists unable to get published in more mainstream press.

    I am old enough to remember @leonadamus saying this is a boring and tedious story that no one should bother with.
    Oh I’ve no doubt about that. Well done them - and Computer Weekly. My kvetch is with Hislop. He’s smug, self satisfied and hasn’t been funny for at least three decades. HIGNFY is achingly cringe - it should have been put to sleep in about 2002
    Nah it’s simply left of centre people being funny. Which is extremely rare, usually we’re far too earnest.

    Merton in particular is outstanding imo.
    Paul Merton is the nearest thing we have to (former Private Eye owner) Peter Cook in that he can just reel off humour almost as stream of consciousness. Is he political though? Ian Hislop is small-c Conservative, not left-wing.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Utfehw9mTkg
    An interview with Oleksiy Arestovych, the challenger to Zelensky now in exile in the US (as he is under 'criminal investigation' in Ukraine).
    Interesting ideas about this being a long conflict, ie a new 30 years war; that Russia have been able to successfully turn this in to a conflict between the global south and the west as the war has progressed; the need for a new security settlement in Eastern Europe. Reliance on aid from the US has consequences for domestic stability in addition to the progress of the war. Ukraine struggles with mobilisation vs professionalisation of recruitment in Russia. His ultimate position seems to be one of 'Finlandisation', just as Finland has abandoned Finlandisation. I expect he will be regarded as compromised in some way but even if this is the case it does provide some insight in to the situation.
  • ...

    Farage would get elected in Clacton, suggests a poll of 509:

    RFM 37%
    CON 27%
    LAB 23%
    LDM 6%

    https://t.co/WBViKofFhs

    Go Nigel go!

    Wasn't Thanet a shoo-in once?

    Although with the recently fun-washed Nige, fresh from taking down Starmer for vexatiously prosecuting all the sub-Postmasters, who knows?

    With a year and nine days to the General Election, the voters might have forgotten about Post Officegate by 23/1/2025. Just three days after Trump's inauguration.

    Yes, I have the Back to the Future Almanac.
    *giggles* yes, a January 2025 election. The various points where he needs to pull the lever for an election later than 2nd May all have massive political problems. Namely being catastrophically behind in the polls. So indecision is the easiest decision and the can gets kicked. A wild card election where “anything could happen campaigning over Christmas” feels like the best chance.
    If the GE is in January 2025, I am predicting the Tories will get fewer seats than the Greens.
  • Well.


    The three wise monkeys stamps are an interesting take, although I don't know if that newspaper was known for its campaigning stance on the Post Office scandal. First Minister's BiL in the dock? It's all a bit Hunter Biden but perhaps it will have more traction in Scotland.
    It was a weird juxtaposition with the main story that struck me.

    As I've said for years, politicians aren't really responsible for their adult relatives.
    I've never forgiven John Major for failing to prevent Terry Major-Ball from manufacturing garden gnomes.

    The harm that awful man wrought on front gardens across Britain, yet not one word of condemnation passed Major's lips. Unforgivable.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,307
    IanB2 said:

    Has anyone counted the number of times @David_Cameron states that @RishiSunak was a strong and capable leader in his start of election year interview this morning ?

    More evidence that Sunak’s strategy has changed from “I am the real change” (as stated at Tory Party Conference) to “Don’t risk change at this dangerous time”


    https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1746465074888274357

    What's sufficiently not already f****d up that people would worry that Labour might f**k it up?
    All the problems that the government has punted into the 2024/5 financial year for a start.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543
    maxh said:

    Leon said:



    Oh I’ve no doubt about that. Well done them - and Computer Weekly. My kvetch is with Hislop. He’s smug, self satisfied and hasn’t been funny for at least three decades. HIGNFY is achingly cringe - it should have been put to sleep in about 2002

    Nah it’s simply left of centre people being funny. Which is extremely rare, usually we’re far too earnest.

    Merton in particular is outstanding imo.
    Agreed - more consistently funny than Hislop. Both are far better than Private Eye (is Hislop still doing that?), which occasionally gets a real scoop but mostly just feeds grumpy old man cynicism.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,242
    Question for PBers: 100 days on, has anyone significantly changed their views on the situation in Gaza?

    For my own part, I started out with quite a bit of sympathy for Israel but an underlying concern that an emotionally driven response would be counterproductive to their long term interests.

    Over the past 100 days and seeing the indiscriminate nature of their response I find myself very firmly on the side of Palestinians, even to the extent that I can understand (whilst not morally condoning) widespread support for Hamas. It is also contributing a little to my view that the USA may no longer be a force for good in the world and realistically the least worst set of coattails for UK to hang onto for the next century
    might be China’s.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,565

    Leon said:

    Well done @Benpointer - I didn’t enter coz I can’t win (don’t care enough to think about some of the questions) but it looks mighty impressive when tabulated

    Interestingly the Biden/Trump dichotomy divides really predictably on political grounds. Nearly all of the few people predicting a Trump victory are on “the right” as far as I can see, and FWIW

    This makes me suspect hopecasting, not forecasting

    Most people forecast by taking present day trends and projecting them into the future, with a tiny bit of variation around the mean if they're feeling daring. The peripheral stuff is very easily missed.

    I don't do it because I simply don't know and I change my mind on betting and forecasts all the time. I don't want to have a position that I feel obligated to defend because I'm a sage if I happen to be right or a Roger/Leondamus if I don't, neither of which would be true.

    I know it's boring and a bit of a cop out but i prefer absolute flexibility.
    I reserve the right to change my mind and disown my earlier predictions whenever.

    But seriously you are not alone among prominent Peers who decided not to enter, and that's absolutely fine of course.
    That said, the one thing I do feel confident on predicting is a Labour majority and I'm betting accordingly.

    Unless Starmer falls under a bus, and Corbyn comes back, that's happening.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,837

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    Cabinet Office was Feb 2019, so Theresa May. She resigned in March 2020, so Johnson kept her on for a significant term.

    Yeah, but Johnson probably didn't know who she was. As for the Cabinet Office, he probably thought that's where the drinks were kept.

    The Scandal does in fact have some unlikely heroes. Johnson is I think one, in that he set up the Inquiry. I believe he was genuinely horrified at what he was hearing. The Daily Mail is another. It was I believe the only tabloid to latch on early.
    The Mail have been surprisingly moderated in their takedown of Starmer over the Post Office scandal. The Telegraph on the other hand has been relentless alongside GBNews (with the BBC joining in a little too). Do we no longer have a Broadcasting Standards Commission?
    Casino Royal hit a nail squarely on the head when he wrote recently that the Scandal offended the British sense of fair play and this accounts for the ferocity of the public reaction, generally across party-lines. The Mail and its readers are representative in this sense.

    The Starmer thing is nonsense and the little traction it has found will diminish in time. There's a little bit more to the Davy-bashing, but not a lot.

    I'm interested that the name of Kelly Tolhurst has surfaced. She was the relevant Minister at a crucial period, notably when the ill-judged preferments were handed to Vennells.

    The current relevant Minister, Kemi Badenoch continues to be mysteriously quiet. Is she on leave?
    For Kemi the best plan is to keep her head down while it blows over. The last thing she should do is raise her head above the parapet.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,032
    edited January 14

    Well.


    The three wise monkeys stamps are an interesting take, although I don't know if that newspaper was known for its campaigning stance on the Post Office scandal. First Minister's BiL in the dock? It's all a bit Hunter Biden but perhaps it will have more traction in Scotland.
    Bit ambiguous, no doubt inadvertently, that Biden reference! And it'd be a lot more news if the chap was kept out of court because ...

    Sunday Post is basically a sanitised NoW with cartoons but neither tits nor bums. Rabidly unionist.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/1999/oct/03/theobserver.uknews3 [this makes a hash of one reference by misspelling Francis Gay as Frances ...]
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,081
    AWS secures £894m in cloud spend across three contracts with UK government on same day
    Amazon Web Services’ hold on the UK public sector continues to tighten, following the revelation that on a single day in late 2023 it clinched contracts worth £894m with three central government departments

    https://www.computerweekly.com/news/366566172/AWS-secures-894m-in-cloud-spend-across-three-contracts-with-UK-government-on-same-day

    Good luck to any British hosting company bidding for even an £894 American public sector contract. National security, you understand, not protectionism.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    I think we start to see exactly why the Tories have been so desperate to muck spread this one. In reality they are in it up to their eyeballs. Best approach is try and make others look guilty first out of the blocks, so that any story about them has less impact.

    Watch Hislop skewer the Tory line where it’s supposedly all Starmer and Davey. He isn’t just mocking it, he is furious.
    Hislop hasn’t successfully skewered anything since the late 1900s
    https://youtu.be/-2z-AdzgKjY?si=yZ-bkC5X-_ZwoDBP
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543
    tpfkar said:

    Farage would get elected in Clacton, suggests a poll of 509:

    RFM 37%
    CON 27%
    LAB 23%
    LDM 6%

    https://t.co/WBViKofFhs

    Go Nigel go!

    There was a by-election in the Clacton seat this week, with a Reform UK candidate standing. They got 9.1%, 54 votes.

    Go for it Nige, please.
    Last time was Con 72 Lab 15 LD 6. It'd be interesting to see a poll in a Red Wall seat.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,771
    edited January 14

    maxh said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    I think we start to see exactly why the Tories have been so desperate to muck spread this one. In reality they are in it up to their eyeballs. Best approach is try and make others look guilty first out of the blocks, so that any story about them has less impact.

    Watch Hislop skewer the Tory line where it’s supposedly all Starmer and Davey. He isn’t just mocking it, he is furious.
    Hislop hasn’t successfully skewered anything since the late 1900s
    Private Eye has been covering this story prominently for over a decade.

    Amid the jokes and satire it is one of the few places with serious investigative reporting in our press. I think much comes from journalists unable to get published in more mainstream press.

    I am old enough to remember @leonadamus saying this is a boring and tedious story that no one should bother with.
    Oh I’ve no doubt about that. Well done them - and Computer Weekly. My kvetch is with Hislop. He’s smug, self satisfied and hasn’t been funny for at least three decades. HIGNFY is achingly cringe - it should have been put to sleep in about 2002
    Nah it’s simply left of centre people being funny. Which is extremely rare, usually we’re far too earnest.

    Merton in particular is outstanding imo.
    Paul Merton is the nearest thing we have to (former Private Eye owner) Peter Cook in that he can just reel off humour almost as stream of consciousness. Is he political though? Ian Hislop is small-c Conservative, not left-wing.
    I honestly cannot remember the last time either Merton or Hislop made me laugh. However, and to be fair, I haven't watched HIGNFY in YEARS as the last few times I did it was so scrotum-tighteningly cringeworthy, middle brow, laboured, AND tumour-inducingly smug I nearly stoved in the TV with a clawhammer
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,307

    maxh said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    I think we start to see exactly why the Tories have been so desperate to muck spread this one. In reality they are in it up to their eyeballs. Best approach is try and make others look guilty first out of the blocks, so that any story about them has less impact.

    Watch Hislop skewer the Tory line where it’s supposedly all Starmer and Davey. He isn’t just mocking it, he is furious.
    Hislop hasn’t successfully skewered anything since the late 1900s
    Private Eye has been covering this story prominently for over a decade.

    Amid the jokes and satire it is one of the few places with serious investigative reporting in our press. I think much comes from journalists unable to get published in more mainstream press.

    I am old enough to remember @leonadamus saying this is a boring and tedious story that no one should bother with.
    Oh I’ve no doubt about that. Well done them - and Computer Weekly. My kvetch is with Hislop. He’s smug, self satisfied and hasn’t been funny for at least three decades. HIGNFY is achingly cringe - it should have been put to sleep in about 2002
    Nah it’s simply left of centre people being funny. Which is extremely rare, usually we’re far too earnest.

    Merton in particular is outstanding imo.
    Paul Merton is the nearest thing we have to (former Private Eye owner) Peter Cook in that he can just reel off humour almost as stream of consciousness. Is he political though? Ian Hislop is small-c Conservative, not left-wing.
    And that's one of the reasons for hating Hislop- he ought to be a Tory but isn't. Nobody likes a traitor.

    Worse than that, he's been right about a lot of stuff. Not everything (MMR was a low), but he's got many of the Big Calls right. (The Eye's coverage of COVID has been remarkably sane.) Nobody likes a smartarse, either.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,837
    maxh said:

    Question for PBers: 100 days on, has anyone significantly changed their views on the situation in Gaza?

    For my own part, I started out with quite a bit of sympathy for Israel but an underlying concern that an emotionally driven response would be counterproductive to their long term interests.

    Over the past 100 days and seeing the indiscriminate nature of their response I find myself very firmly on the side of Palestinians, even to the extent that I can understand (whilst not morally condoning) widespread support for Hamas. It is also contributing a little to my view that the USA may no longer be a force for good in the world and realistically the least worst set of coattails for UK to hang onto for the next century
    might be China’s.

    I am rather shocked at this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/13/it-is-a-time-of-witch-hunts-in-israel-teacher-held-in-solitary-confinement-for-posting-concern-about-gaza-deaths

    Being imprisoned for simply questioning the severity of attacks on Gaza is not a mark of a free country. I note many Arab Israelis have been locked up too.
  • Leon said:

    Well done @Benpointer - I didn’t enter coz I can’t win (don’t care enough to think about some of the questions) but it looks mighty impressive when tabulated

    Interestingly the Biden/Trump dichotomy divides really predictably on political grounds. Nearly all of the few people predicting a Trump victory are on “the right” as far as I can see, and FWIW

    This makes me suspect hopecasting, not forecasting

    Most people forecast by taking present day trends and projecting them into the future, with a tiny bit of variation around the mean if they're feeling daring. The peripheral stuff is very easily missed.

    I don't do it because I simply don't know and I change my mind on betting and forecasts all the time. I don't want to have a position that I feel obligated to defend because I'm a sage if I happen to be right or a Roger/Leondamus if I don't, neither of which would be true.

    I know it's boring and a bit of a cop out but i prefer absolute flexibility.
    I reserve the right to change my mind and disown my earlier predictions whenever.

    But seriously you are not alone among prominent Peers who decided not to enter, and that's absolutely fine of course.
    That said, the one thing I do feel confident on predicting is a Labour majority and I'm betting accordingly.

    Unless Starmer falls under a bus, and Corbyn comes back, that's happening.
    Well depends on who is driving the bus.


  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543
    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    It looks like John Sweeney may be in the running for Hamble Valley for the LDs.

    https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1746317986175107521?t=b9wllVj8amHBdNKAy6gIaA&s=19

    A new seat made out of bits of Eastleigh and Fareham, with a small bit from Winchester - he could be in with a chance?
    If the Conservatives really fall apart (not impossible), then who knows? I imagine that Winchester and Eastleigh are higher campaigning priorities for Lib Dems in Hampshire, though.

    For fans of business'n'bonking soap operas, we're basically talking Howard's Way land here.
    Suella is one of the current MPs down there; offered as a factoid without comment.
    This little sub-topic now has the Howard’s Way theme tune implanted as todays ear worm.

    The most ‘80s (British made) drama series on TV.
    The surprise is that it was one of the last works of Gerard Glaister, who created the much earlier Colditz series, and also Secret Army - probably the best BBC TV drama series ever made.
    Really? They didn’t have such catchy theme tunes though.

    It’s never been repeated on mainstream TV, at least not as far as I know.
    It was brilliant. My understanding is that the BBC pulped the master copies after a certain number of years according to standard policy, and efforts to find someone who had it on DVD failed, so it's lost forever.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secret_Army_(TV_series)
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    Cabinet Office was Feb 2019, so Theresa May. She resigned in March 2020, so Johnson kept her on for a significant term.

    Yeah, but Johnson probably didn't know who she was. As for the Cabinet Office, he probably thought that's where the drinks were kept.

    The Scandal does in fact have some unlikely heroes. Johnson is I think one, in that he set up the Inquiry. I believe he was genuinely horrified at what he was hearing. The Daily Mail is another. It was I believe the only tabloid to latch on early.
    The Mail have been surprisingly moderated in their takedown of Starmer over the Post Office scandal. The Telegraph on the other hand has been relentless alongside GBNews (with the BBC joining in a little too). Do we no longer have a Broadcasting Standards Commission?
    Casino Royal hit a nail squarely on the head when he wrote recently that the Scandal offended the British sense of fair play and this accounts for the ferocity of the public reaction, generally across party-lines. The Mail and its readers are representative in this sense.

    The Starmer thing is nonsense and the little traction it has found will diminish in time. There's a little bit more to the Davy-bashing, but not a lot.

    I'm interested that the name of Kelly Tolhurst has surfaced. She was the relevant Minister at a crucial period, notably when the ill-judged preferments were handed to Vennells.

    The current relevant Minister, Kemi Badenoch continues to be mysteriously quiet. Is she on leave?
    For Kemi the best plan is to keep her head down while it blows over. The last thing she should do is raise her head above the parapet.

    True, but it must be difficult for someone who is instinctlively a rabid headline-grabber.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,962

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    It looks like John Sweeney may be in the running for Hamble Valley for the LDs.

    https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1746317986175107521?t=b9wllVj8amHBdNKAy6gIaA&s=19

    A new seat made out of bits of Eastleigh and Fareham, with a small bit from Winchester - he could be in with a chance?
    If the Conservatives really fall apart (not impossible), then who knows? I imagine that Winchester and Eastleigh are higher campaigning priorities for Lib Dems in Hampshire, though.

    For fans of business'n'bonking soap operas, we're basically talking Howard's Way land here.
    Suella is one of the current MPs down there; offered as a factoid without comment.
    This little sub-topic now has the Howard’s Way theme tune implanted as todays ear worm.

    The most ‘80s (British made) drama series on TV.
    The surprise is that it was one of the last works of Gerard Glaister, who created the much earlier Colditz series, and also Secret Army - probably the best BBC TV drama series ever made.
    Really? They didn’t have such catchy theme tunes though.

    It’s never been repeated on mainstream TV, at least not as far as I know.
    It was brilliant. My understanding is that the BBC pulped the master copies after a certain number of years according to standard policy, and efforts to find someone who had it on DVD failed, so it's lost forever.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secret_Army_(TV_series)
    Pulped copies of what? Both Colditz and Secret Army are on DVD, the infamous and dire 'missing final episode' crops up on Youtube from time to time, and a quick search suggests there's a fair bit of Howard's Way on Youtube as well.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,565
    I watched the new Gladiators last night. Not bad.

    Went back to watch the original. Ulrika Jonsson was simply stunning in 1992.

    I don't want to be unkind but when you look at pictures of her today it really does show the importance of sunscreen.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,081

    maxh said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    I think we start to see exactly why the Tories have been so desperate to muck spread this one. In reality they are in it up to their eyeballs. Best approach is try and make others look guilty first out of the blocks, so that any story about them has less impact.

    Watch Hislop skewer the Tory line where it’s supposedly all Starmer and Davey. He isn’t just mocking it, he is furious.
    Hislop hasn’t successfully skewered anything since the late 1900s
    Private Eye has been covering this story prominently for over a decade.

    Amid the jokes and satire it is one of the few places with serious investigative reporting in our press. I think much comes from journalists unable to get published in more mainstream press.

    I am old enough to remember @leonadamus saying this is a boring and tedious story that no one should bother with.
    Oh I’ve no doubt about that. Well done them - and Computer Weekly. My kvetch is with Hislop. He’s smug, self satisfied and hasn’t been funny for at least three decades. HIGNFY is achingly cringe - it should have been put to sleep in about 2002
    Nah it’s simply left of centre people being funny. Which is extremely rare, usually we’re far too earnest.

    Merton in particular is outstanding imo.
    Paul Merton is the nearest thing we have to (former Private Eye owner) Peter Cook in that he can just reel off humour almost as stream of consciousness. Is he political though? Ian Hislop is small-c Conservative, not left-wing.
    And that's one of the reasons for hating Hislop- he ought to be a Tory but isn't. Nobody likes a traitor.

    Worse than that, he's been right about a lot of stuff. Not everything (MMR was a low), but he's got many of the Big Calls right. (The Eye's coverage of COVID has been remarkably sane.) Nobody likes a smartarse, either.
    Wikipedia agrees Ian Hislop ought to be a Tory. Head boy at his public school then Oxford, like Boris and Rishi.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,962

    I watched the new Gladiators last night. Not bad.

    Went back to watch the original. Ulrika Jonsson was simply stunning in 1992.

    I don't want to be unkind but when you look at pictures of her today it really does show the importance of sunscreen.

    She's now an islander.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,771
    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    I think we start to see exactly why the Tories have been so desperate to muck spread this one. In reality they are in it up to their eyeballs. Best approach is try and make others look guilty first out of the blocks, so that any story about them has less impact.

    Watch Hislop skewer the Tory line where it’s supposedly all Starmer and Davey. He isn’t just mocking it, he is furious.
    Hislop hasn’t successfully skewered anything since the late 1900s
    https://youtu.be/-2z-AdzgKjY?si=yZ-bkC5X-_ZwoDBP
    Yes, brutal

    Michael Deacon wrote in the Telegraph about that sketch, saying it was such a total, cruel, skilful evisceration of HIGNFY that he was sure the show would get canned. Yet, not

    For me it is the TV equivalent of Radio 4 "comedy". This stuff sometimes makes me despair of Britain
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    edited January 14

    maxh said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    I think we start to see exactly why the Tories have been so desperate to muck spread this one. In reality they are in it up to their eyeballs. Best approach is try and make others look guilty first out of the blocks, so that any story about them has less impact.

    Watch Hislop skewer the Tory line where it’s supposedly all Starmer and Davey. He isn’t just mocking it, he is furious.
    Hislop hasn’t successfully skewered anything since the late 1900s
    Private Eye has been covering this story prominently for over a decade.

    Amid the jokes and satire it is one of the few places with serious investigative reporting in our press. I think much comes from journalists unable to get published in more mainstream press.

    I am old enough to remember @leonadamus saying this is a boring and tedious story that no one should bother with.
    Oh I’ve no doubt about that. Well done them - and Computer Weekly. My kvetch is with Hislop. He’s smug, self satisfied and hasn’t been funny for at least three decades. HIGNFY is achingly cringe - it should have been put to sleep in about 2002
    Nah it’s simply left of centre people being funny. Which is extremely rare, usually we’re far too earnest.

    Merton in particular is outstanding imo.
    Paul Merton is the nearest thing we have to (former Private Eye owner) Peter Cook in that he can just reel off humour almost as stream of consciousness. Is he political though? Ian Hislop is small-c Conservative, not left-wing.
    And that's one of the reasons for hating Hislop- he ought to be a Tory but isn't. Nobody likes a traitor.

    Worse than that, he's been right about a lot of stuff. Not everything (MMR was a low), but he's got many of the Big Calls right. (The Eye's coverage of COVID has been remarkably sane.) Nobody likes a smartarse, either.
    It was great when he handed Priti Patel her arse when she was pro death penalty as there never any wrongful convictions.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Azk0875MKm8
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522
    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    There have been a bewildering number of mergers and renaming of the portfolio, but I think it was Kelly Tollhurst at the time.

    I don't know if this is relevant to the CBE, and am faintly bemused at the British obsession with these baubles. It really isn't the biggest issue in the whole scandal, not even in the top 10.
    It is up there, since it at the very least suggests that government colluded in the coverup.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,053
    edited January 14
    maxh said:

    Question for PBers: 100 days on, has anyone significantly changed their views on the situation in Gaza?

    For my own part, I started out with quite a bit of sympathy for Israel but an underlying concern that an emotionally driven response would be counterproductive to their long term interests.

    Over the past 100 days and seeing the indiscriminate nature of their response I find myself very firmly on the side of Palestinians, even to the extent that I can understand (whilst not morally condoning) widespread support for Hamas. It is also contributing a little to my view that the USA may no longer be a force for good in the world and realistically the least worst set of coattails for UK to hang onto for the next century
    might be China’s.

    I assume some people have changed their minds because there’s now a dearth of cheerleading for the IDF’s activities in Gaza. Haven’t seen a ‘You believe the Gaza Medical Health Ministry casualty figures?!’ post for ages.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543
    IanB2 said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    It looks like John Sweeney may be in the running for Hamble Valley for the LDs.

    https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1746317986175107521?t=b9wllVj8amHBdNKAy6gIaA&s=19

    A new seat made out of bits of Eastleigh and Fareham, with a small bit from Winchester - he could be in with a chance?
    If the Conservatives really fall apart (not impossible), then who knows? I imagine that Winchester and Eastleigh are higher campaigning priorities for Lib Dems in Hampshire, though.

    For fans of business'n'bonking soap operas, we're basically talking Howard's Way land here.
    Suella is one of the current MPs down there; offered as a factoid without comment.
    This little sub-topic now has the Howard’s Way theme tune implanted as todays ear worm.

    The most ‘80s (British made) drama series on TV.
    The surprise is that it was one of the last works of Gerard Glaister, who created the much earlier Colditz series, and also Secret Army - probably the best BBC TV drama series ever made.
    Then again, it's available on Amazon Prime:

    https://www.amazon.com/Secret-Army-Season-1/dp/B00VJ1Y7KS
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,576

    IanB2 said:

    Has anyone counted the number of times @David_Cameron states that @RishiSunak was a strong and capable leader in his start of election year interview this morning ?

    More evidence that Sunak’s strategy has changed from “I am the real change” (as stated at Tory Party Conference) to “Don’t risk change at this dangerous time”


    https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1746465074888274357

    What's sufficiently not already f****d up that people would worry that Labour might f**k it up?
    All the problems that the government has punted into the 2024/5 financial year for a start.
    Any leader who has to say he is strong and capable is neither.
  • Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    There have been a bewildering number of mergers and renaming of the portfolio, but I think it was Kelly Tollhurst at the time.

    I don't know if this is relevant to the CBE, and am faintly bemused at the British obsession with these baubles. It really isn't the biggest issue in the whole scandal, not even in the top 10.
    It is up there, since it at the very least suggests that government colluded in the coverup.
    Nick Wallis's book suggests the probablility of such collusion.

    This Scandal still has a way to run.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    maxh said:

    Question for PBers: 100 days on, has anyone significantly changed their views on the situation in Gaza?

    For my own part, I started out with quite a bit of sympathy for Israel but an underlying concern that an emotionally driven response would be counterproductive to their long term interests.

    Over the past 100 days and seeing the indiscriminate nature of their response I find myself very firmly on the side of Palestinians, even to the extent that I can understand (whilst not morally condoning) widespread support for Hamas. It is also contributing a little to my view that the USA may no longer be a force for good in the world and realistically the least worst set of coattails for UK to hang onto for the next century
    might be China’s.

    The temptation with this conflict is to try and interpret in a 'light v dark, good v evil' way, but I don't think that applies here. Obviously though various actors will try and appeal to this set of emotions to try and further their own interests through the use of propoganda, ie dramatic pictures of dead babies. It is interesting how someone can arrive at the conclusion 'China is less evil than America' as a result of a possibly disproportionate response to a terrorist attack. I would personally say that the stuff that has gone on in Xinjiang is objectively far worse than the situation in Gaza, and far closer to an actual genocide, if a 'good v evil' analysis is applied to world affairs.

    There are also some questions that persist about Gaza, ie aren't some of the Muslim countries 'at fault' for not taking in refugees, if there is an attempt to attribute responsibility for the bad humanitarian situation.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,032
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    There have been a bewildering number of mergers and renaming of the portfolio, but I think it was Kelly Tollhurst at the time.

    I don't know if this is relevant to the CBE, and am faintly bemused at the British obsession with these baubles. It really isn't the biggest issue in the whole scandal, not even in the top 10.
    It is up there, since it at the very least suggests that government colluded in the coverup.
    And because Tories themselves lay so much stress on the honours system, going to Buck House, etc. etc. anyway.

    Mind, that it's only a CBE is interesting.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,962

    IanB2 said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    It looks like John Sweeney may be in the running for Hamble Valley for the LDs.

    https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1746317986175107521?t=b9wllVj8amHBdNKAy6gIaA&s=19

    A new seat made out of bits of Eastleigh and Fareham, with a small bit from Winchester - he could be in with a chance?
    If the Conservatives really fall apart (not impossible), then who knows? I imagine that Winchester and Eastleigh are higher campaigning priorities for Lib Dems in Hampshire, though.

    For fans of business'n'bonking soap operas, we're basically talking Howard's Way land here.
    Suella is one of the current MPs down there; offered as a factoid without comment.
    This little sub-topic now has the Howard’s Way theme tune implanted as todays ear worm.

    The most ‘80s (British made) drama series on TV.
    The surprise is that it was one of the last works of Gerard Glaister, who created the much earlier Colditz series, and also Secret Army - probably the best BBC TV drama series ever made.
    Then again, it's available on Amazon Prime:

    https://www.amazon.com/Secret-Army-Season-1/dp/B00VJ1Y7KS
    I have the full set on DVD (ex the 'missing' episode, which isn't missing, just kept out of sight due embarassment), if the BBC is missing any. It remains outstanding drama, particularly when you allow for the limited budget and extensive use of studio rather than location filming.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,893
    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    I think we start to see exactly why the Tories have been so desperate to muck spread this one. In reality they are in it up to their eyeballs. Best approach is try and make others look guilty first out of the blocks, so that any story about them has less impact.

    Watch Hislop skewer the Tory line where it’s supposedly all Starmer and Davey. He isn’t just mocking it, he is furious.
    Hislop hasn’t successfully skewered anything since the late 1900s
    https://youtu.be/-2z-AdzgKjY?si=yZ-bkC5X-_ZwoDBP
    Yes, brutal

    Michael Deacon wrote in the Telegraph about that sketch, saying it was such a total, cruel, skilful evisceration of HIGNFY that he was sure the show would get canned. Yet, not

    For me it is the TV equivalent of Radio 4 "comedy". This stuff sometimes makes me despair of Britain
    I suppose a Telegraph client journalist would say that, wouldn't he?

    And this makes you despair of Britain? nothing else?.
  • darkage said:

    Interesting how so many more posters predict Biden as POTUS, despite Trump being the current favourite.

    Wishful thinking, on my part. Hope I'm right.
  • ajbajb Posts: 147
    I like Kinbalu's idea of Obama coming back, but sadly this is ruled out by the 22nd amendment.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522
    maxh said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    I think we start to see exactly why the Tories have been so desperate to muck spread this one. In reality they are in it up to their eyeballs. Best approach is try and make others look guilty first out of the blocks, so that any story about them has less impact.

    Watch Hislop skewer the Tory line where it’s supposedly all Starmer and Davey. He isn’t just mocking it, he is furious.
    Hislop hasn’t successfully skewered anything since the late 1900s
    Private Eye has been covering this story prominently for over a decade.

    Amid the jokes and satire it is one of the few places with serious investigative reporting in our press. I think much comes from journalists unable to get published in more mainstream press.

    I am old enough to remember @leonadamus saying this is a boring and tedious story that no one should bother with.
    Oh I’ve no doubt about that. Well done them - and Computer Weekly. My kvetch is with Hislop. He’s smug, self satisfied and hasn’t been funny for at least three decades. HIGNFY is achingly cringe - it should have been put to sleep in about 2002
    Nah it’s simply left of centre people being funny. Which is extremely rare, usually we’re far too earnest.

    Merton in particular is outstanding imo.
    While I don't find HIGNFY consistently hilarious, I think it's just that we've got to that stage of Conservative government where Tories lose their sense of humour.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,771

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    I think we start to see exactly why the Tories have been so desperate to muck spread this one. In reality they are in it up to their eyeballs. Best approach is try and make others look guilty first out of the blocks, so that any story about them has less impact.

    Watch Hislop skewer the Tory line where it’s supposedly all Starmer and Davey. He isn’t just mocking it, he is furious.
    Hislop hasn’t successfully skewered anything since the late 1900s
    https://youtu.be/-2z-AdzgKjY?si=yZ-bkC5X-_ZwoDBP
    Yes, brutal

    Michael Deacon wrote in the Telegraph about that sketch, saying it was such a total, cruel, skilful evisceration of HIGNFY that he was sure the show would get canned. Yet, not

    For me it is the TV equivalent of Radio 4 "comedy". This stuff sometimes makes me despair of Britain
    I suppose a Telegraph client journalist would say that, wouldn't he?

    And this makes you despair of Britain? nothing else?.
    The intensely cringey middlebrow mediocrity of so much British culture, yes - that can make me despair

    Also shit urbanism with shit architecture. And the weather
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,242

    Leon said:

    Well done @Benpointer - I didn’t enter coz I can’t win (don’t care enough to think about some of the questions) but it looks mighty impressive when tabulated

    Interestingly the Biden/Trump dichotomy divides really predictably on political grounds. Nearly all of the few people predicting a Trump victory are on “the right” as far as I can see, and FWIW

    This makes me suspect hopecasting, not forecasting

    Most people forecast by taking present day trends and projecting them into the future, with a tiny bit of variation around the mean if they're feeling daring. The peripheral stuff is very easily missed.

    I don't do it because I simply don't know and I change my mind on betting and forecasts all the time. I don't want to have a position that I feel obligated to defend because I'm a sage if I happen to be right or a Roger/Leondamus if I don't, neither of which would be true.

    I know it's boring and a bit of a cop out but i prefer absolute flexibility.
    Admirably honest, and pretty much my position too, though I’m not sure I could have articulated it as clearly.
  • Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    Thanks Ben.

    I seem to be well above the rest on Lab Maj. I took the figure off Electoral Calculus, and I'm surprised others didn't do likewise.

    No matter. It's good to be the outlier. FPTP is my friend. :)

    I see that even those predicting NOM (including myself) have all gone for Lab most seats.

    Sunak is toast.
    Outcomes are possible where Labour doesn't get most seats but are still able to cobble together a government of sorts (which won't last long).
    Yes literally everyone in the contest has Starmer as PM, and there are even further possibilities.

    Only @Ghedebrav thinks interest rates won't come down, and no one thinks they might go up

    The highest CPI prediction is 5.9% too.

    I am not entirely convinced by the wisdom of crowds, its not just Davey that we are unanimous over.
    Those are related variables though not independent. If people are expecting higher inflation, then higher interest rates should be expected to combat it - and vice-versa.

    As it happens, you're wrong on interest rates though. Current base rate is 5.25% so Ghedebrav is forecasting an increase . . . and both @AverageNinja and myself have arrived at a rare point of agreement in seeing rates unchanged over the next year.

    My thinking is that that interest rates are going to go close to target but at no risk of going below target, inertia will mean there's no reason to change in either direction.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939

    Why aren’t we talking about the cultural event of the year? (Two) Spice Girls and (two) All Saints come together to make All Spice at Mel C’s 50th birthday concert: https://youtu.be/FJMDwsN-rfg?si=_XdkJuJ8j-YhSSue

    I suppose the name Old Spice was already taken.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,468
    Good morning all.

    Since Ms Vennells was at the Post Office 2012-2019, and the Cabinet Office 2019-2020 until she resigned of her own volition, some responsibility seems to attach to the current administration.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,413
    darkage said:

    Interesting how so many more posters predict Biden as POTUS, despite Trump being the current favourite.

    Just hard to believe that they would actually vote the creep back in , a majority cannot be that stupid or we are well and truly Fuc***
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,771
    Nigelb said:

    maxh said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    I think we start to see exactly why the Tories have been so desperate to muck spread this one. In reality they are in it up to their eyeballs. Best approach is try and make others look guilty first out of the blocks, so that any story about them has less impact.

    Watch Hislop skewer the Tory line where it’s supposedly all Starmer and Davey. He isn’t just mocking it, he is furious.
    Hislop hasn’t successfully skewered anything since the late 1900s
    Private Eye has been covering this story prominently for over a decade.

    Amid the jokes and satire it is one of the few places with serious investigative reporting in our press. I think much comes from journalists unable to get published in more mainstream press.

    I am old enough to remember @leonadamus saying this is a boring and tedious story that no one should bother with.
    Oh I’ve no doubt about that. Well done them - and Computer Weekly. My kvetch is with Hislop. He’s smug, self satisfied and hasn’t been funny for at least three decades. HIGNFY is achingly cringe - it should have been put to sleep in about 2002
    Nah it’s simply left of centre people being funny. Which is extremely rare, usually we’re far too earnest.

    Merton in particular is outstanding imo.
    While I don't find HIGNFY consistently hilarious, I think it's just that we've got to that stage of Conservative government where Tories lose their sense of humour.


    It's not a question of funny, it's beyond that. HIGNFY is execrable dreck, spoonfed to stupid people who yearn to believe they are intelligent. Liking it is a symptom of cognitive deficit
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522
    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    I think we start to see exactly why the Tories have been so desperate to muck spread this one. In reality they are in it up to their eyeballs. Best approach is try and make others look guilty first out of the blocks, so that any story about them has less impact.

    Watch Hislop skewer the Tory line where it’s supposedly all Starmer and Davey. He isn’t just mocking it, he is furious.
    Hislop hasn’t successfully skewered anything since the late 1900s
    https://youtu.be/-2z-AdzgKjY?si=yZ-bkC5X-_ZwoDBP
    Yes, brutal

    Michael Deacon wrote in the Telegraph about that sketch, saying it was such a total, cruel, skilful evisceration of HIGNFY that he was sure the show would get canned. Yet, not

    For me it is the TV equivalent of Radio 4 "comedy". This stuff sometimes makes me despair of Britain
    I thought it considerably more feeble than the show it purports to 'skewer'.

    As for R4 comedy it's always been crap, except on the odd occasion when it isn't.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,413
    Well done Ben , great you put in all that effort.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    On the PO scandal, I wouldn't be surprised if the attempts by the Tories and their press to apportion historical blame to Davey, Starmer, Mandelson, Blair or, in fact, anybody but the Tories, backfire on them.

    The vast majority of Joe Public first heard about the scandal following the ITV drama. That same public don't engage in the sort of forensic analysis we see on here, and are only dimly aware that this has been going on for years. When asked "who's to blame?", it seems to me quite likely that they will point the finger at the people who have been in power for the last 14 years. And even if they recognise that the problem predates 2010, they could well conclude "well, the Tories have had 14 years to sort it out. Why haven't they?".

    Which rather poses the question why Starmer is on the defensive about his time as DPP and not using what you have (correctly) pointed out above as an attack line. Seems like a low risk, open goal to me.
  • Thank you Ben for organising this, its really interesting to see people's thinking across a range of issues in that spreadsheet format.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543
    Opinium comparisons with mid-December FWIW:

    Lab 41 (+1), Con 27 (=), LD 11 (=) Ref 10 (+1), SNP 4 (+1), Green 6 (-1)

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/13/ed-daveys-approval-rating-takes-a-big-hit-from-the-post-office-scandal
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Question: as Opinium and one or two others adjust for expected swingback, how close to the election do we need to be before they scale that down? Or do they assume that voters change their minds when they actually enter the polling both?
  • darkage said:

    On the PO scandal, I wouldn't be surprised if the attempts by the Tories and their press to apportion historical blame to Davey, Starmer, Mandelson, Blair or, in fact, anybody but the Tories, backfire on them.

    The vast majority of Joe Public first heard about the scandal following the ITV drama. That same public don't engage in the sort of forensic analysis we see on here, and are only dimly aware that this has been going on for years. When asked "who's to blame?", it seems to me quite likely that they will point the finger at the people who have been in power for the last 14 years. And even if they recognise that the problem predates 2010, they could well conclude "well, the Tories have had 14 years to sort it out. Why haven't they?".

    Which rather poses the question why Starmer is on the defensive about his time as DPP and not using what you have (correctly) pointed out above as an attack line. Seems like a low risk, open goal to me.
    Because he's parked the bus.

    He has no intention of taking any risk. He thinks he's in the lead and isn't looking to score goals.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,413

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Interesting how so many more posters predict Biden as POTUS, despite Trump being the current favourite.

    It’s coz PBers simply can’t bear the idea of Trump winning. I sympathise - a Trump victory would be scary - but these emotions are not a good basis for cold calm predictions
    It's just for fun, Leon, so no need to hide one's sentiments. It's when the money goes down you have to be icy cold in your judgement.

    I once backed Le Pen for the French presidency. OK, she didn't win but the odds were fantastic.
    I disagree. I reckon for an awful lot of people a Trump victory is emotionally unthinkable (because it is so morally repellant and scarily destabilising) so they literally can’t think of it, even in a quiz-for-fun
    Er....yes, I think that's the point I was trying to make.

    It's early.
    Definitely Peter, I just cannot imagine that there could be that many totally immoral stupid people in America to vote that turd in again.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939

    On the PO scandal, I wouldn't be surprised if the attempts by the Tories and their press to apportion historical blame to Davey, Starmer, Mandelson, Blair or, in fact, anybody but the Tories, backfire on them.

    The vast majority of Joe Public first heard about the scandal following the ITV drama. That same public don't engage in the sort of forensic analysis we see on here, and are only dimly aware that this has been going on for years. When asked "who's to blame?", it seems to me quite likely that they will point the finger at the people who have been in power for the last 14 years. And even if they recognise that the problem predates 2010, they could well conclude "well, the Tories have had 14 years to sort it out. Why haven't they?".

    The basis on which the CBE nomination was made for Vennells shows to me the mindset of the government all too well. The reason that this has not been sorted out is that sorting it was going to cost serious amounts of public money. The government are not impartial arbitrators of this. They, and the PO, are a party.

    Finding £1bn to sort this was never going to be a priority for a government struggling to finance Health, Social Care and Education. I can’t imagine a government that would have thought differently to this if I am honest.

    And many who now claim to be shocked are just hypocrites or naive. It’s what governments do.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    maxh said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    I think we start to see exactly why the Tories have been so desperate to muck spread this one. In reality they are in it up to their eyeballs. Best approach is try and make others look guilty first out of the blocks, so that any story about them has less impact.

    Watch Hislop skewer the Tory line where it’s supposedly all Starmer and Davey. He isn’t just mocking it, he is furious.
    Hislop hasn’t successfully skewered anything since the late 1900s
    Private Eye has been covering this story prominently for over a decade.

    Amid the jokes and satire it is one of the few places with serious investigative reporting in our press. I think much comes from journalists unable to get published in more mainstream press.

    I am old enough to remember @leonadamus saying this is a boring and tedious story that no one should bother with.
    Oh I’ve no doubt about that. Well done them - and Computer Weekly. My kvetch is with Hislop. He’s smug, self satisfied and hasn’t been funny for at least three decades. HIGNFY is achingly cringe - it should have been put to sleep in about 2002
    Nah it’s simply left of centre people being funny. Which is extremely rare, usually we’re far too earnest.

    Merton in particular is outstanding imo.
    While I don't find HIGNFY consistently hilarious, I think it's just that we've got to that stage of Conservative government where Tories lose their sense of humour.
    It's not a question of funny, it's beyond that. HIGNFY is execrable dreck, spoonfed to stupid people who yearn to believe they are intelligent. Liking it is a symptom of cognitive deficit
    As I said.
  • Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    maxh said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    If this is true then serious questions need to be asked of Starmer and Davey:

    Explosive claim in the Sunday Times:

    Source claims Paula Vennells was recommended for CBE by Business Department for "bending her conscience and holding the line" to keep cost of scandal down.

    Full piece here: thetimes.co.uk/article/paula-… via @olivershah @HarryYorke1 @ShaunLintern

    https://x.com/tomwitherow/status/1746246940185051430?s=46

    Hmm. Awarded on 29 December 2018. Who was the relevant Cabinet member when the award was made?

    Edit: source - https://www.thegazette.co.uk/notice/3176404

    Who? Starmer. Or Davey. Depends which seat the Tories are worried about. Either way, wasn’t a Tory, no siree.

    cf Ian Hislop handing “Sir” Jake Berry his arse on Peston.
    Never mind the gong, who put her forward for her posts at Imperial College and The Cabinet Office? We are talking 2019 here, long after the Horizon fiasco was public knowledge.
    I think we start to see exactly why the Tories have been so desperate to muck spread this one. In reality they are in it up to their eyeballs. Best approach is try and make others look guilty first out of the blocks, so that any story about them has less impact.

    Watch Hislop skewer the Tory line where it’s supposedly all Starmer and Davey. He isn’t just mocking it, he is furious.
    Hislop hasn’t successfully skewered anything since the late 1900s
    Private Eye has been covering this story prominently for over a decade.

    Amid the jokes and satire it is one of the few places with serious investigative reporting in our press. I think much comes from journalists unable to get published in more mainstream press.

    I am old enough to remember @leonadamus saying this is a boring and tedious story that no one should bother with.
    Oh I’ve no doubt about that. Well done them - and Computer Weekly. My kvetch is with Hislop. He’s smug, self satisfied and hasn’t been funny for at least three decades. HIGNFY is achingly cringe - it should have been put to sleep in about 2002
    Nah it’s simply left of centre people being funny. Which is extremely rare, usually we’re far too earnest.

    Merton in particular is outstanding imo.
    While I don't find HIGNFY consistently hilarious, I think it's just that we've got to that stage of Conservative government where Tories lose their sense of humour.
    It's not a question of funny, it's beyond that. HIGNFY is execrable dreck, spoonfed to stupid people who yearn to believe they are intelligent. Liking it is a symptom of cognitive deficit
    As I said.
    The man who bangs on about UFOs wants you to be concerned about cognitive deficit.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,962
    MattW said:

    Good morning all.

    Since Ms Vennells was at the Post Office 2012-2019, and the Cabinet Office 2019-2020 until she resigned of her own volition, some responsibility seems to attach to the current administration.

    That she got made a non-exec at the Cabinet Office, well after the details of the scandal were in plain sight, continue to baffle. She must have some good connections of which we are unaware.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,565
    maxh said:

    Leon said:

    Well done @Benpointer - I didn’t enter coz I can’t win (don’t care enough to think about some of the questions) but it looks mighty impressive when tabulated

    Interestingly the Biden/Trump dichotomy divides really predictably on political grounds. Nearly all of the few people predicting a Trump victory are on “the right” as far as I can see, and FWIW

    This makes me suspect hopecasting, not forecasting

    Most people forecast by taking present day trends and projecting them into the future, with a tiny bit of variation around the mean if they're feeling daring. The peripheral stuff is very easily missed.

    I don't do it because I simply don't know and I change my mind on betting and forecasts all the time. I don't want to have a position that I feel obligated to defend because I'm a sage if I happen to be right or a Roger/Leondamus if I don't, neither of which would be true.

    I know it's boring and a bit of a cop out but i prefer absolute flexibility.
    Admirably honest, and pretty much my position too, though I’m not sure I could have articulated it as clearly.
    Thanks.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,837

    Opinium comparisons with mid-December FWIW:

    Lab 41 (+1), Con 27 (=), LD 11 (=) Ref 10 (+1), SNP 4 (+1), Green 6 (-1)

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/13/ed-daveys-approval-rating-takes-a-big-hit-from-the-post-office-scandal
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Question: as Opinium and one or two others adjust for expected swingback, how close to the election do we need to be before they scale that down? Or do they assume that voters change their minds when they actually enter the polling both?

    Presumably that as the number of DKs gradually reduces, the effect on their figures gradually diminishes over time.

    Opinium do state that their correction (DKs allocated as per last GE vote) makes a swing to Lab more likely. I mentioned this in my header in early Dec.
  • DavidL said:

    On the PO scandal, I wouldn't be surprised if the attempts by the Tories and their press to apportion historical blame to Davey, Starmer, Mandelson, Blair or, in fact, anybody but the Tories, backfire on them.

    The vast majority of Joe Public first heard about the scandal following the ITV drama. That same public don't engage in the sort of forensic analysis we see on here, and are only dimly aware that this has been going on for years. When asked "who's to blame?", it seems to me quite likely that they will point the finger at the people who have been in power for the last 14 years. And even if they recognise that the problem predates 2010, they could well conclude "well, the Tories have had 14 years to sort it out. Why haven't they?".

    The basis on which the CBE nomination was made for Vennells shows to me the mindset of the government all too well. The reason that this has not been sorted out is that sorting it was going to cost serious amounts of public money. The government are not impartial arbitrators of this. They, and the PO, are a party.

    Finding £1bn to sort this was never going to be a priority for a government struggling to finance Health, Social Care and Education. I can’t imagine a government that would have thought differently to this if I am honest.

    And many who now claim to be shocked are just hypocrites or naive. It’s what governments do.
    Yep. And the same "what did the PO do with all that money" taken from SPMs? What money? It was bankruptcy or life savings for the individuals, and a drop in the ocean for the PO.

    The real money was with the IT contract. That was the concern. And for government where the cost of that is relatively small change, the impact on other IT contracts is the concern.

    Easier then to toe the line. Government IT contracts are robust (stop laughing at the back), SPMs have been crooks before (true) so why all the fuss now?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,413

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Picture quiz. There is something deeply jarring about this photo. What is it?



    Ashtray? Glass that changes shape halfway down? No sign of life outside?
    A tiny balcony for such an important guest?
    Final clue. Look at the washing. The clothes being dried


    Cooling the car interior with a towel over the window? We older Brits have specialist equipment from Halfords to serve that function. Was that your revelation?
    LOL, definitely not alcohol free beer then
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    darkage said:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Utfehw9mTkg
    An interview with Oleksiy Arestovych, the challenger to Zelensky now in exile in the US (as he is under 'criminal investigation' in Ukraine).
    Interesting ideas about this being a long conflict, ie a new 30 years war; that Russia have been able to successfully turn this in to a conflict between the global south and the west as the war has progressed; the need for a new security settlement in Eastern Europe. Reliance on aid from the US has consequences for domestic stability in addition to the progress of the war. Ukraine struggles with mobilisation vs professionalisation of recruitment in Russia. His ultimate position seems to be one of 'Finlandisation', just as Finland has abandoned Finlandisation. I expect he will be regarded as compromised in some way but even if this is the case it does provide some insight in to the situation.

    Arestovich doesn't have the backing of any oligarchs and, by extension, their media networks such as 1+1 or Telemarathon. It's difficult to see how he'd gets such support and therefore how he'd stand a chance in any Ukrainian election. If they ever happen which isn't likely as long as Green T-Shirt maintains martial law.

    Being ex (or maybe not so ex) Bratstvo, he does have a constituency among ultra-nationalist, fundamentialist Christian nutcases but there are plenty of other scumbags angling for that support too.
This discussion has been closed.