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Replacing the irreplaceable – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited December 2023 in General
Replacing the irreplaceable – politicalbetting.com

Who will be the next Welsh First Minister?Vaughan Gething opens up as 8/13 favouritehttps://t.co/xEr6J9tKhM pic.twitter.com/sTgx7mlK9n

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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,976
    Sorry to go off topic so quickly and by being so parochial but this is a very important day for Scottish politics with the Scottish budget. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-67750367

    Basically, the Scottish government's policy of universal benefits buying popularity has run out of road. Significant cuts are now inevitable as, sadly, are more tax increases. Getting consultants, for example, to come to Scotland is going to be challenging.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,453
    Well, if we’re veering off topic


    You can get a one way flight to Reykjavik for £40. EasyJet. Just sayin’ - if you like volcanoes
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,976
    At the moment a fairly astonishing 20% of the workforce in Scotland works for the public sector, compared to a UK average of 16.7%. This additional employment has produced worse results in Education, broadly the same in Health (better on some statistics, worse on others), worse on policing and uninspiring results in local authorities.

    Our new Finance Secretary states that the reduction of the State must be done in "an orderly way". In my own area we have been running more courts than ever before trying to catch up the backlog caused by Covid and the overwhelming number of sexual offences being prosecuted under current policies. It is going to be genuinely difficult to make choices today and the frankly daft priorities of the First Minister have made things worse.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,559
    edited December 2023
    DavidL said:

    Sorry to go off topic so quickly and by being so parochial but this is a very important day for Scottish politics with the Scottish budget. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-67750367

    Basically, the Scottish government's policy of universal benefits buying popularity has run out of road. Significant cuts are now inevitable as, sadly, are more tax increases. Getting consultants, for example, to come to Scotland is going to be challenging.

    I suppose you mean medical consultants. If you mean management "experts" otoh, getting rid of McKinsey's and similar incompetent parasites is one of the few things that could tempt me to support higher taxes.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,453

    Leon said:

    Well, if we’re veering off topic


    You can get a one way flight to Reykjavik for £40. EasyJet. Just sayin’ - if you like volcanoes

    Or your application to join Dignitas has been turned down.
    The photos look incroyable
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,976
    Fishing said:

    DavidL said:

    Sorry to go off topic so quickly and by being so parochial but this is a very important day for Scottish politics with the Scottish budget. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-67750367

    Basically, the Scottish government's policy of universal benefits buying popularity has run out of road. Significant cuts are now inevitable as, sadly, are more tax increases. Getting consultants, for example, to come to Scotland is going to be challenging.

    I suppose you mean medical consultants. If you mean management experts otoh, getting rid of McKinsey's and similar incompetent parasites is one of the few things that could tempt me to support higher taxes.
    Yes, I meant medical consultants. There are huge numbers of vacancies in the Scottish NHS. A local witch hunt which proved to have no substance whatsoever left Tayside without any cancer specialists for a time. There has been 1 or 2 employed now but it has proved very hard work.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,045
    DavidL said:

    At the moment a fairly astonishing 20% of the workforce in Scotland works for the public sector, compared to a UK average of 16.7%. This additional employment has produced worse results in Education, broadly the same in Health (better on some statistics, worse on others), worse on policing and uninspiring results in local authorities.

    Our new Finance Secretary states that the reduction of the State must be done in "an orderly way". In my own area we have been running more courts than ever before trying to catch up the backlog caused by Covid and the overwhelming number of sexual offences being prosecuted under current policies. It is going to be genuinely difficult to make choices today and the frankly daft priorities of the First Minister have made things worse.

    Which one? If you mean the ones who have been arrested, further adding to the backlog, I see your logic.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,045
    On topic, I will be very surprised if it isn't Vaughan Gethin, but as I mentioned before his inability to speak Welsh may count against him.

    It's not that there are lots of Welsh speakers, it's just that their votes matter in rather a lot of marginal areas - Carmarthenshire, southern Powys, the western Valleys, and the north-west around Bangor and Mon.
  • Leon said:

    Well, if we’re veering off topic


    You can get a one way flight to Reykjavik for £40. EasyJet. Just sayin’ - if you like volcanoes

    When Leon starts posting this early in the morning, I think we need to expect some fallout.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,756
    So it looks like Iceland is turning into Fireland!
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Well, if we’re veering off topic


    You can get a one way flight to Reykjavik for £40. EasyJet. Just sayin’ - if you like volcanoes

    Or your application to join Dignitas has been turned down.
    The photos look incroyable
    Yeah, real Mt Doom stuff.

    Sometimes I'm glad to be living in the boring old Cotswolds.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,045
    Sandpit said:

    So it looks like Iceland is turning into Fireland!

    Is Emilia Clarke about to get her kit off?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited December 2023
    cancelled
  • ydoethur said:

    On topic, I will be very surprised if it isn't Vaughan Gethin, but as I mentioned before his inability to speak Welsh may count against him.

    It's not that there are lots of Welsh speakers, it's just that their votes matter in rather a lot of marginal areas - Carmarthenshire, southern Powys, the western Valleys, and the north-west around Bangor and Mon.

    Isn't the Welsh spoken in North Wales rather different to the Southern version?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    FPT
    Roger said:

    TimS said:

    stodge said:

    Redfield & Wilton ends with a solid 18-point Labour lead. Compared to its first poll of 2023 on 2-3 January, Labour are down five, the Conservatives down three, the Liberal Democrats down one, the Greens up three and Reform up five. The Lab/LD/Green vs Con/Ref split tonight is 59-34 - at the beginning of the year it was 62-32 so not a lot of change in truth.

    59% is one of the lowest LLG scores for a while though. Lib Dems being down one is against the run of play for other pollsters.

    Labour are still scoring in the 40s. The whole Tory fightback narrative will of course kick into overdrive as soon as Labour get a polling score beginning with 3. They’ve got close a few times recently.
    Can’t read too much into one poll, but Labours war tanking is letting the LLG down.

    Tories can only have a fight back narrative with polling scores starting with 3 themselves. What’s interesting from Labour polling slump is Tories have their own malaise at same time, not benefiting from it.

    If Elder Statesman Lord Cameron is going to receive all the credit for the Tory flip flop on calling Israel to ceasefire, tonight’s politics hub on Sky was gushing in praise for him, then he must receive credit for saving Labours troubles on this at same time. Starmer and team kept within a micrometer of the government position on this, but the Tory letter from former ministers, remarks from Wallace, Cameron’s “sustained ceasefire” phrase today parroted by Sunak, is different in what way and language from the SNP and Labour left position 4 weeks ago?
    Obviously, I was in the loo and missed it, but the Gaza conflict has waged pretty fierce on a daily basis here on PB. Sunil and Roger versus just about everyone else? And thanks to David Cameron, Sunil and Roger are now winning.

    Conservative MPs sign letter calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza conflict 
    https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-baroness-mone-ppe-labour-government-pandemic-transparency-12593360

    How is Sunak’s governments Damascene Conversion on Gaza conflict being reported in Europe and Rest of the world? Is Lord Cameron’s stock rising overseas too?

    What a contrast from Truss in the job!
    In answer to your observation about Sunil and myself; the reason we are prepared to say it as we see it is because neither of us fear being called 'Anti Semitic'. A shield that Israel has hidden behind for too long and a shield that has worked successfully on the more pusillanimous on here.

    There are also a few who are simply Islamaphobic and a few who support right wing causes of which Israel has has become one.

    I read a very good post of yours the other day. The first i'd seen since your gardening leave I looked for it's source so I could give it a 'like'. I can't remember the subject now but it was very perceptive.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,045

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, I will be very surprised if it isn't Vaughan Gethin, but as I mentioned before his inability to speak Welsh may count against him.

    It's not that there are lots of Welsh speakers, it's just that their votes matter in rather a lot of marginal areas - Carmarthenshire, southern Powys, the western Valleys, and the north-west around Bangor and Mon.

    Isn't the Welsh spoken in North Wales rather different to the Southern version?
    And in the middle, but it's still Welsh. Not English.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,038

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Well, if we’re veering off topic


    You can get a one way flight to Reykjavik for £40. EasyJet. Just sayin’ - if you like volcanoes

    Or your application to join Dignitas has been turned down.
    The photos look incroyable
    Yeah, real Mt Doom stuff.

    Sometimes I'm glad to be living in the boring old Cotswolds.

    Actually it doesn't seem to be particularly destructive ?
    (Save for the immediate vicinity.)
  • Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Well, if we’re veering off topic


    You can get a one way flight to Reykjavik for £40. EasyJet. Just sayin’ - if you like volcanoes

    Or your application to join Dignitas has been turned down.
    The photos look incroyable
    Yeah, real Mt Doom stuff.

    Sometimes I'm glad to be living in the boring old Cotswolds.

    Actually it doesn't seem to be particularly destructive ?
    (Save for the immediate vicinity.)
    Wait till they toss the ring in it....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,038
    I'm sorry to say I'd never heard of this UK company.
    (And it's being bought for nothing - the 500m is a capital injection.)

    Farfetch -- which was valued at $20 billion+ at its peak in 2020 -- will be acquired by Coupang, South Korea's answer to Amazon, for $500 million.
    https://twitter.com/LizziePaton/status/1736753644526002612#
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,045
    Major earthquake in China:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-china-67757407

    Official casualty figure is around 100-200, so that probably means around 50,000 dead and several million homeless in -15C.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, I will be very surprised if it isn't Vaughan Gethin, but as I mentioned before his inability to speak Welsh may count against him.

    It's not that there are lots of Welsh speakers, it's just that their votes matter in rather a lot of marginal areas - Carmarthenshire, southern Powys, the western Valleys, and the north-west around Bangor and Mon.

    Isn't the Welsh spoken in North Wales rather different to the Southern version?
    And in the middle, but it's still Welsh. Not English.
    I've always fancied learning to speak Welsh. I would certainly have done so if we had moved to Wales, which we nearly did recently.

    Is it a difficult language? I already know how to pronounce Llanelli.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,164
    I’m surprised the thread isn’t about the “no January 2025 election” announcement?
  • NHS dentistry as we know it 'gone for good'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-67754983
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,045

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, I will be very surprised if it isn't Vaughan Gethin, but as I mentioned before his inability to speak Welsh may count against him.

    It's not that there are lots of Welsh speakers, it's just that their votes matter in rather a lot of marginal areas - Carmarthenshire, southern Powys, the western Valleys, and the north-west around Bangor and Mon.

    Isn't the Welsh spoken in North Wales rather different to the Southern version?
    And in the middle, but it's still Welsh. Not English.
    I've always fancied learning to speak Welsh. I would certainly have done so if we had moved to Wales, which we nearly did recently.

    Is it a difficult language? I already know how to pronounce Llanelli.
    Depends on how hard you work at it.

    I would have said it isn't terribly difficult to speak or read, as long as you don't get sidetracked by trying to learn to write it, as different rules then apply and it becomes more complicated.

    The grammar structures are unusual and not very consistent, but in spoken Welsh that matters rather less.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,045
    IanB2 said:

    I’m surprised the thread isn’t about the “no January 2025 election” announcement?

    It's Sunak, he'll change his mind in a week or so.
  • Nigelb said:

    I'm sorry to say I'd never heard of this UK company.
    (And it's being bought for nothing - the 500m is a capital injection.)

    Farfetch -- which was valued at $20 billion+ at its peak in 2020 -- will be acquired by Coupang, South Korea's answer to Amazon, for $500 million.
    https://twitter.com/LizziePaton/status/1736753644526002612#

    High-end fashion by the look of it. Here is a non-paywalled report.
    https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2023/12/farfetch-sold-coupang/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,038
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, I will be very surprised if it isn't Vaughan Gethin, but as I mentioned before his inability to speak Welsh may count against him.

    It's not that there are lots of Welsh speakers, it's just that their votes matter in rather a lot of marginal areas - Carmarthenshire, southern Powys, the western Valleys, and the north-west around Bangor and Mon.

    Isn't the Welsh spoken in North Wales rather different to the Southern version?
    And in the middle, but it's still Welsh. Not English.
    I've always fancied learning to speak Welsh. I would certainly have done so if we had moved to Wales, which we nearly did recently.

    Is it a difficult language? I already know how to pronounce Llanelli.
    Depends on how hard you work at it.

    I would have said it isn't terribly difficult to speak or read, as long as you don't get sidetracked by trying to learn to write it, as different rules then apply and it becomes more complicated.

    The grammar structures are unusual and not very consistent, but in spoken Welsh that matters rather less.
    Had a quick look at Wikipedia to get an impression, and came across this gem.
    ...⟨k⟩ was in common use until the 16th century, but was dropped at the time of the publication of the New Testament in Welsh, as William Salesbury explained: "⟨c⟩ for ⟨k⟩, because the printers have not so many as the Welsh requireth". This change was not popular at the time..
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,164

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, I will be very surprised if it isn't Vaughan Gethin, but as I mentioned before his inability to speak Welsh may count against him.

    It's not that there are lots of Welsh speakers, it's just that their votes matter in rather a lot of marginal areas - Carmarthenshire, southern Powys, the western Valleys, and the north-west around Bangor and Mon.

    Isn't the Welsh spoken in North Wales rather different to the Southern version?
    And in the middle, but it's still Welsh. Not English.
    I've always fancied learning to speak Welsh. I would certainly have done so if we had moved to Wales, which we nearly did recently.

    Is it a difficult language? I already know how to pronounce Llanelli.
    Yes, it’s reckoned to be more difficult than Latin languages, owing to various peculiarities including vowel shifts not dissimilar to Hungarian. But not as difficult as most non-European languages.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,874
    edited December 2023
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Well, if we’re veering off topic


    You can get a one way flight to Reykjavik for £40. EasyJet. Just sayin’ - if you like volcanoes

    Or your application to join Dignitas has been turned down.
    The photos look incroyable
    Yeah, real Mt Doom stuff.

    Sometimes I'm glad to be living in the boring old Cotswolds.

    Actually it doesn't seem to be particularly destructive ?
    (Save for the immediate vicinity.)
    Depends how much HF and SO2 it is pumping out.

    You probably don't want to be downwind.
  • ydoethur said:

    On topic, I will be very surprised if it isn't Vaughan Gethin, but as I mentioned before his inability to speak Welsh may count against him.

    It's not that there are lots of Welsh speakers, it's just that their votes matter in rather a lot of marginal areas - Carmarthenshire, southern Powys, the western Valleys, and the north-west around Bangor and Mon.

    Are the Welsh really that parochial?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,453
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, I will be very surprised if it isn't Vaughan Gethin, but as I mentioned before his inability to speak Welsh may count against him.

    It's not that there are lots of Welsh speakers, it's just that their votes matter in rather a lot of marginal areas - Carmarthenshire, southern Powys, the western Valleys, and the north-west around Bangor and Mon.

    Isn't the Welsh spoken in North Wales rather different to the Southern version?
    And in the middle, but it's still Welsh. Not English.
    I've always fancied learning to speak Welsh. I would certainly have done so if we had moved to Wales, which we nearly did recently.

    Is it a difficult language? I already know how to pronounce Llanelli.
    Depends on how hard you work at it.

    I would have said it isn't terribly difficult to speak or read, as long as you don't get sidetracked by trying to learn to write it, as different rules then apply and it becomes more complicated.

    The grammar structures are unusual and not very consistent, but in spoken Welsh that matters rather less.
    A friend of mine moved to Wales to learn it. Harlech college. And became very good at it

    He has never used it and now regards the whole thing as a total crazy waste of time, tho he did enjoy the coastal scenery
  • IanB2 said:

    I’m surprised the thread isn’t about the “no January 2025 election” announcement?

    That's going to be the afternoon, hectic few days for me, I was so busy I couldn't even nab the first on this thread.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,309
    ydoethur said:

    Major earthquake in China:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-china-67757407

    Official casualty figure is around 100-200, so that probably means around 50,000 dead and several million homeless in -15C.

    Seismic events this morning. It’s notable that Today has briefly mentioned the Chinese earthquake (but no major reporting) and has completely ignored the Icelandic eruption. Instead it’s been Gaza, assisted dying, trans kids, Biden, cricket and now Gaza again.

    I’d love to see a proper lava flow volcano someday. And an explosive eruption, ideally at the very moment it begins to erupt, and from a safe distance.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,038
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, I will be very surprised if it isn't Vaughan Gethin, but as I mentioned before his inability to speak Welsh may count against him.

    It's not that there are lots of Welsh speakers, it's just that their votes matter in rather a lot of marginal areas - Carmarthenshire, southern Powys, the western Valleys, and the north-west around Bangor and Mon.

    Isn't the Welsh spoken in North Wales rather different to the Southern version?
    And in the middle, but it's still Welsh. Not English.
    I've always fancied learning to speak Welsh. I would certainly have done so if we had moved to Wales, which we nearly did recently.

    Is it a difficult language? I already know how to pronounce Llanelli.
    Depends on how hard you work at it.

    I would have said it isn't terribly difficult to speak or read, as long as you don't get sidetracked by trying to learn to write it, as different rules then apply and it becomes more complicated.

    The grammar structures are unusual and not very consistent, but in spoken Welsh that matters rather less.
    A friend of mine moved to Wales to learn it. Harlech college. And became very good at it

    He has never used it and now regards the whole thing as a total crazy waste of time, tho he did enjoy the coastal scenery
    I don't think learning another language is a total waste of time, even if you rarely use it.

    Presumably he subsequently decided there was something he ought to have done instead ?
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,923

    NHS dentistry as we know it 'gone for good'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-67754983

    Nostalgia isn't what it was.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,388
    TimS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Major earthquake in China:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-china-67757407

    Official casualty figure is around 100-200, so that probably means around 50,000 dead and several million homeless in -15C.

    Seismic events this morning. It’s notable that Today has briefly mentioned the Chinese earthquake (but no major reporting) and has completely ignored the Icelandic eruption. Instead it’s been Gaza, assisted dying, trans kids, Biden, cricket and now Gaza again.

    I’d love to see a proper lava flow volcano someday. And an explosive eruption, ideally at the very moment it begins to erupt, and from a safe distance.
    North Queensland floods look pretty horrible too.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-67740978
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,038

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Well, if we’re veering off topic


    You can get a one way flight to Reykjavik for £40. EasyJet. Just sayin’ - if you like volcanoes

    Or your application to join Dignitas has been turned down.
    The photos look incroyable
    Yeah, real Mt Doom stuff.

    Sometimes I'm glad to be living in the boring old Cotswolds.

    Actually it doesn't seem to be particularly destructive ?
    (Save for the immediate vicinity.)
    Depends how much HF and SO2 it is pumping out.

    You probably don't want to be downwind.
    That's the vicinity, though.
    This far they haven't, for example, cancelled any flights. The atmosphere effects appear to be limited - which is what counts for the rest of us.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,038
    Many of the genuine moderates are no longer in the party.

    Column. On the Tory moderates who are apparently*beginning* to worry that their party might *get* a bit extreme *after* the next election.
    https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1737016196061434041
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,492
    edited December 2023
    Ho-ho-ho Happy Christmas everyone:

    Rishi Sunak is meeting just one of the five priorities he set out at the start of the year, according to BBC analysis.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67752738

    Now, at Leon's request, lesson 2 of successful project management: Make sure all the targets you publish are slam-dunk gimmes.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,301
    Regarding last night's discussion on cash, I see that everybody had their two bob's worth
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,865
    edited December 2023
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, I will be very surprised if it isn't Vaughan Gethin, but as I mentioned before his inability to speak Welsh may count against him.

    It's not that there are lots of Welsh speakers, it's just that their votes matter in rather a lot of marginal areas - Carmarthenshire, southern Powys, the western Valleys, and the north-west around Bangor and Mon.

    Isn't the Welsh spoken in North Wales rather different to the Southern version?
    And in the middle, but it's still Welsh. Not English.
    I've always fancied learning to speak Welsh. I would certainly have done so if we had moved to Wales, which we nearly did recently.

    Is it a difficult language? I already know how to pronounce Llanelli.
    Depends on how hard you work at it.

    I would have said it isn't terribly difficult to speak or read, as long as you don't get sidetracked by trying to learn to write it, as different rules then apply and it becomes more complicated.

    The grammar structures are unusual and not very consistent, but in spoken Welsh that matters rather less.
    A friend of mine moved to Wales to learn it. Harlech college. And became very good at it

    He has never used it and now regards the whole thing as a total crazy waste of time, tho he did enjoy the coastal scenery
    Some years ago, I seriously considered buying a pharmacy in rural Northwest Wales, but after standing around in the place, listening to the patients I realised that I would have to learn Welsh to really be able to function as I wanted to.

    Although the chap who bought it didn’t speak Welsh, and never learned it! He seemed to make a success of it too.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,388

    Regarding last night's discussion on cash, I see that everybody had their two bob's worth

    It's about time that someone spoke cents on the topic.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,309
    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Major earthquake in China:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-china-67757407

    Official casualty figure is around 100-200, so that probably means around 50,000 dead and several million homeless in -15C.

    Seismic events this morning. It’s notable that Today has briefly mentioned the Chinese earthquake (but no major reporting) and has completely ignored the Icelandic eruption. Instead it’s been Gaza, assisted dying, trans kids, Biden, cricket and now Gaza again.

    I’d love to see a proper lava flow volcano someday. And an explosive eruption, ideally at the very moment it begins to erupt, and from a safe distance.
    North Queensland floods look pretty horrible too.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-67740978
    The North Queensland floods are weird, completely out of character for an El Niño event. With the current SST pattern we’d expect severe drought in Queensland, not floods.

    El Niño typically brings floods in East Africa, Peru and California.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,038

    Regarding last night's discussion on cash, I see that everybody had their two bob's worth

    A sterling effort all round.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,492
    Foxy said:

    Regarding last night's discussion on cash, I see that everybody had their two bob's worth

    It's about time that someone spoke cents on the topic.
    Which side are you shilling for?
  • Nigelb said:

    Regarding last night's discussion on cash, I see that everybody had their two bob's worth

    A sterling effort all round.
    Can't say that Euro'ver the temptation to pun.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Many of the genuine moderates are no longer in the party.

    Column. On the Tory moderates who are apparently*beginning* to worry that their party might *get* a bit extreme *after* the next election.
    https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1737016196061434041

    It's a very good column

    A sane party would not have a Rwanda policy in the first place. Away from the hype and the fight, there’s barely a cigarette paper’s difference between the version wanted by the rebels, which is harebrained and unworkable, and the version proposed by Sunak, which is also harebrained and unworkable. It is a function of cringing deference to nonsense that the policy even exists, let alone that they basically all ended up voting for it.

    Today, the Conservatives are scary. I don’t just mean in a Liz Truss way, like an unexpected midnight clown at the end of your bed. I mean that they feel flighty, erratic, unmoderated, prone to alarming lurches. With Brexit, after so many years of fights and votes and stasis, I can understand why even some moderate MPs just sighed and waved it through. But Rwanda? They all knew it was nonsense, from the PM who proposed it, to the home secretary who advanced it, to the supposed moderates themselves, and they all voted for it anyway.
    Thought experiment.

    Suppose the Conservative ecosystem decides it wants to move back towards centrism. Not whether they will or should, but just to suppose.

    Who is their Starmer figure who can lead that trudge? Penny Mordaunt? Simultaneously far too woke to be acceptable and nowhere near centrist enough.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 948
    edited December 2023

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, I will be very surprised if it isn't Vaughan Gethin, but as I mentioned before his inability to speak Welsh may count against him.

    It's not that there are lots of Welsh speakers, it's just that their votes matter in rather a lot of marginal areas - Carmarthenshire, southern Powys, the western Valleys, and the north-west around Bangor and Mon.

    Isn't the Welsh spoken in North Wales rather different to the Southern version?
    And in the middle, but it's still Welsh. Not English.
    I've always fancied learning to speak Welsh. I would certainly have done so if we had moved to Wales, which we nearly did recently.

    Is it a difficult language? I already know how to pronounce Llanelli.
    My parents moved to North Wales when I was about 11. My dad (then in his late 30s) went into a Welsh speaking environment at work, and learnt (with some effort) to become very fluent, to the point that he could comfortably preach in Welsh in some of the chapels. From watching his experiences, I would say it's probably harder than Spanish or French, but easier than say Russian or Chinese.

    Growing up I was never comfortable enough to try speaking it, but had a large enough vocab which could be combined with a reasonable ability to read body language and tone to understand fairly well what was going on - I survived 6th form in a very Welsh school; I was the only pupil who wasn't bilingual in the whole school.

    My younger sister learnt aged about 9-10 and is very fluent, she is now a fairly senior grade in the Welsh civil service (amusingly, we have a fairly English surname, but she married an English bloke with a stereotypically Welsh surname, which makes everyone assume she's actually Welsh).
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,793

    Who is their Starmer figure who can lead that trudge? Penny Mordaunt? Simultaneously far too woke to be acceptable and nowhere near centrist enough.

    If we're lucky, they get elected at the GE (or the one after)
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,301

    Nigelb said:

    Regarding last night's discussion on cash, I see that everybody had their two bob's worth

    A sterling effort all round.
    Can't say that Euro'ver the temptation to pun.
    I'd bet a pound to a halfpenny that we haven't heard the last of this from ydoethur.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,492
    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Many of the genuine moderates are no longer in the party.

    Column. On the Tory moderates who are apparently*beginning* to worry that their party might *get* a bit extreme *after* the next election.
    https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1737016196061434041

    It's a very good column

    A sane party would not have a Rwanda policy in the first place. Away from the hype and the fight, there’s barely a cigarette paper’s difference between the version wanted by the rebels, which is harebrained and unworkable, and the version proposed by Sunak, which is also harebrained and unworkable. It is a function of cringing deference to nonsense that the policy even exists, let alone that they basically all ended up voting for it.

    Today, the Conservatives are scary. I don’t just mean in a Liz Truss way, like an unexpected midnight clown at the end of your bed. I mean that they feel flighty, erratic, unmoderated, prone to alarming lurches. With Brexit, after so many years of fights and votes and stasis, I can understand why even some moderate MPs just sighed and waved it through. But Rwanda? They all knew it was nonsense, from the PM who proposed it, to the home secretary who advanced it, to the supposed moderates themselves, and they all voted for it anyway.
    It seems to be a feature of both the extreme left and extreme right that they tie themselves up in ever more intricate knots of 'holier than thou' stupidity.

    For the right, Rwanda is a perfect example, JRM's 'bring back imperial' and Braverman's 'steal the tents' were others. On the left examples include the complete f*ck-up on gender and trans and the fact that mere concern for Gaza civilians is not enough, you've got to hate Israel.

    We must guard against the extremes on both sides.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,453
    Immigration is killing Biden



  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,038

    Nigelb said:

    Regarding last night's discussion on cash, I see that everybody had their two bob's worth

    A sterling effort all round.
    Can't say that Euro'ver the temptation to pun.
    I'd bet a pound to a halfpenny that we haven't heard the last of this from ydoethur.
    He's taking notes, and will pay you back in your own coin.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,492

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Many of the genuine moderates are no longer in the party.

    Column. On the Tory moderates who are apparently*beginning* to worry that their party might *get* a bit extreme *after* the next election.
    https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1737016196061434041

    It's a very good column

    A sane party would not have a Rwanda policy in the first place. Away from the hype and the fight, there’s barely a cigarette paper’s difference between the version wanted by the rebels, which is harebrained and unworkable, and the version proposed by Sunak, which is also harebrained and unworkable. It is a function of cringing deference to nonsense that the policy even exists, let alone that they basically all ended up voting for it.

    Today, the Conservatives are scary. I don’t just mean in a Liz Truss way, like an unexpected midnight clown at the end of your bed. I mean that they feel flighty, erratic, unmoderated, prone to alarming lurches. With Brexit, after so many years of fights and votes and stasis, I can understand why even some moderate MPs just sighed and waved it through. But Rwanda? They all knew it was nonsense, from the PM who proposed it, to the home secretary who advanced it, to the supposed moderates themselves, and they all voted for it anyway.
    Thought experiment.

    Suppose the Conservative ecosystem decides it wants to move back towards centrism. Not whether they will or should, but just to suppose.

    Who is their Starmer figure who can lead that trudge? Penny Mordaunt? Simultaneously far too woke to be acceptable and nowhere near centrist enough.
    Most likely it will be someone we've never heard of, perhaps not even an MP yet.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,045

    ydoethur said:

    On topic, I will be very surprised if it isn't Vaughan Gethin, but as I mentioned before his inability to speak Welsh may count against him.

    It's not that there are lots of Welsh speakers, it's just that their votes matter in rather a lot of marginal areas - Carmarthenshire, southern Powys, the western Valleys, and the north-west around Bangor and Mon.

    Are the Welsh really that parochial?
    Well, they're not quite as bad as Yorkshiremen, but they're pretty parochial all the same :tongue:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,038

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Many of the genuine moderates are no longer in the party.

    Column. On the Tory moderates who are apparently*beginning* to worry that their party might *get* a bit extreme *after* the next election.
    https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1737016196061434041

    It's a very good column

    A sane party would not have a Rwanda policy in the first place. Away from the hype and the fight, there’s barely a cigarette paper’s difference between the version wanted by the rebels, which is harebrained and unworkable, and the version proposed by Sunak, which is also harebrained and unworkable. It is a function of cringing deference to nonsense that the policy even exists, let alone that they basically all ended up voting for it.

    Today, the Conservatives are scary. I don’t just mean in a Liz Truss way, like an unexpected midnight clown at the end of your bed. I mean that they feel flighty, erratic, unmoderated, prone to alarming lurches. With Brexit, after so many years of fights and votes and stasis, I can understand why even some moderate MPs just sighed and waved it through. But Rwanda? They all knew it was nonsense, from the PM who proposed it, to the home secretary who advanced it, to the supposed moderates themselves, and they all voted for it anyway.
    Thought experiment.

    Suppose the Conservative ecosystem decides it wants to move back towards centrism. Not whether they will or should, but just to suppose.

    Who is their Starmer figure who can lead that trudge? Penny Mordaunt? Simultaneously far too woke to be acceptable and nowhere near centrist enough.
    Most likely it will be someone we've never heard of, perhaps not even an MP yet.
    Perhaps as likely, it will be a different party, after the extinction of this one.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,045

    Nigelb said:

    Regarding last night's discussion on cash, I see that everybody had their two bob's worth

    A sterling effort all round.
    Can't say that Euro'ver the temptation to pun.
    I'd bet a pound to a halfpenny that we haven't heard the last of this from ydoethur.
    I'm aiming for an entry in the Guineas Book Of Records.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,038
    Europe too, if that's any consolation.

    UK economy at risk of ‘hard landing’, warns bond giant Pimco
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2023/dec/19/uk-economy-at-risk-of-hard-landing-warning-ftse-pound-eurozone-inflation-pimco
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,038
    "Make no mistake: If Republicans in Congress abandon Ukraine to Russian aggression, they do so to please Trump. Every other excuse is a fiction or a lie."
    https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1736780959268155815

    That's simply not true.

    I'm pretty sure there will be a few who see it as a direct favour to Putin.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,155
    Leon said:

    Immigration is killing Biden



    US inflation falling like a stone doesn't seem to have helped him - so it probably won't here. The "cost of living crisis" as a phrase will outlive inflation.

    (Theory: the public understand that falling inflation doesn't mean prices are falling well enough - middle class condescension notwithstanding.)
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,155
    Nigelb said:

    Europe too, if that's any consolation.

    UK economy at risk of ‘hard landing’, warns bond giant Pimco
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2023/dec/19/uk-economy-at-risk-of-hard-landing-warning-ftse-pound-eurozone-inflation-pimco



    Better to be French or British rather than German or Italian in these hard times. British due to wage increases; I think the French figure is due to lower energy inflation (nuclear power).

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,458
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Regarding last night's discussion on cash, I see that everybody had their two bob's worth

    A sterling effort all round.
    Can't say that Euro'ver the temptation to pun.
    I'd bet a pound to a halfpenny that we haven't heard the last of this from ydoethur.
    I'm aiming for an entry in the Guineas Book Of Records.
    Barely finished my breakfast groats, and I come onto PB to find that Ydoethur has started punning already.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,876
    edited December 2023
    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    Immigration is killing Biden



    US inflation falling like a stone doesn't seem to have helped him - so it probably won't here. The "cost of living crisis" as a phrase will outlive inflation.

    (Theory: the public understand that falling inflation doesn't mean prices are falling well enough - middle class condescension notwithstanding.)
    The USA seems to be doing very well judging by various social media posts (UPS drivers earning $100,000 for example) wage wise but Biden doesn't seem to be getting credit for any of it.
    Mind you, almost everyone in the USA also seems not to be able to do anything else other than spend like a drunken sailor too judging by the Dave Ramsey phone ins.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,453
    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    Immigration is killing Biden



    US inflation falling like a stone doesn't seem to have helped him - so it probably won't here. The "cost of living crisis" as a phrase will outlive inflation.

    (Theory: the public understand that falling inflation doesn't mean prices are falling well enough - middle class condescension notwithstanding.)
    Images like this will destroy Biden’s campaign


    “BREAKING: Video from a contact on the ground in Eagle Pass, TX right now shows a mass of thousands of migrants waiting to be processed by Border Patrol after they crossed illegally today. I’ve spent hundreds of days there over the last 2+ years and I’ve never seen it like this.”

    https://x.com/billmelugin_/status/1736928008433537100?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,923
    Excellent article. Full of fulsome praise for a political colossus.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Many of the genuine moderates are no longer in the party.

    Column. On the Tory moderates who are apparently*beginning* to worry that their party might *get* a bit extreme *after* the next election.
    https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1737016196061434041

    It's a very good column

    A sane party would not have a Rwanda policy in the first place. Away from the hype and the fight, there’s barely a cigarette paper’s difference between the version wanted by the rebels, which is harebrained and unworkable, and the version proposed by Sunak, which is also harebrained and unworkable. It is a function of cringing deference to nonsense that the policy even exists, let alone that they basically all ended up voting for it.

    Today, the Conservatives are scary. I don’t just mean in a Liz Truss way, like an unexpected midnight clown at the end of your bed. I mean that they feel flighty, erratic, unmoderated, prone to alarming lurches. With Brexit, after so many years of fights and votes and stasis, I can understand why even some moderate MPs just sighed and waved it through. But Rwanda? They all knew it was nonsense, from the PM who proposed it, to the home secretary who advanced it, to the supposed moderates themselves, and they all voted for it anyway.
    It seems to be a feature of both the extreme left and extreme right that they tie themselves up in ever more intricate knots of 'holier than thou' stupidity.

    For the right, Rwanda is a perfect example, JRM's 'bring back imperial' and Braverman's 'steal the tents' were others. On the left examples include the complete f*ck-up on gender and trans and the fact that mere concern for Gaza civilians is not enough, you've got to hate Israel.

    We must guard against the extremes on both sides.
    Fair. Politics becomes a pissing contest.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,038
    edited December 2023
    Wasted wind power adds £40 to household energy bills, says think tank
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67494082

    This is pretty mad.
    It's currently costing over half a billion a year because the grid doesn't have sufficient capacity to transmit power from the north to the south of the UK. That's likely to quadruple over the next decade.

    A 2GW HVDC line between (as an example) London and Aberdeen would cost approx £1-2bn.
    It's not difficult.
  • Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    Immigration is killing Biden



    US inflation falling like a stone doesn't seem to have helped him - so it probably won't here. The "cost of living crisis" as a phrase will outlive inflation.

    (Theory: the public understand that falling inflation doesn't mean prices are falling well enough - middle class condescension notwithstanding.)
    Images like this will destroy Biden’s campaign


    “BREAKING: Video from a contact on the ground in Eagle Pass, TX right now shows a mass of thousands of migrants waiting to be processed by Border Patrol after they crossed illegally today. I’ve spent hundreds of days there over the last 2+ years and I’ve never seen it like this.”

    https://x.com/billmelugin_/status/1736928008433537100?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    To too many Dems that's seen as a good thing.

    They would rather Trump wins than have any form of border control.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,155
    A good industrial story for once: Harland and Wolff appears to be out of danger and rebuilding - and not just with government contracts:

    https://www.business-live.co.uk/manufacturing/harland-wolff-headcount-hits-1000-28296206
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,458
    Nigelb said:

    Wasted wind power adds £40 to household energy bills, says think tank
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67494082

    This is pretty mad.
    It's currently costing over half a billion a year because the grid doesn't have sufficient capacity to transmit power from the north to the south of the UK. That's likely to quadruple over the next decade.

    A 2GW HVDC line between (as an example) London and Aberdeen would cost approx £1-2bn.
    It's not difficult.

    Already being done. PLus SEGL1 from near Dunbar to England, I believe.

    https://utilityweek.co.uk/england-scotland-electricity-superhighway-gets-go-ahead/

    Should have been done before, I agree.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,793
    Nigelb said:

    A 2GW HVDC line between (as an example) London and Aberdeen would cost approx £1-2bn.
    It's not difficult.

    The materials and labour would cost approx £1-2bn

    The legal fees and opportunity cost of the public inquiry will cost approx £10-20bn
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,458
    edited December 2023
    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    A 2GW HVDC line between (as an example) London and Aberdeen would cost approx £1-2bn.
    It's not difficult.

    The materials and labour would cost approx £1-2bn

    The legal fees and opportunity cost of the public inquiry will cost approx £10-20bn
    That's why it's being done out at sea ... fish don't vote for NIMBY parties.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Ho-ho-ho Happy Christmas everyone:

    Rishi Sunak is meeting just one of the five priorities he set out at the start of the year, according to BBC analysis.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67752738

    Now, at Leon's request, lesson 2 of successful project management: Make sure all the targets you publish are slam-dunk gimmes.

    Lesson 2a of project management, at no one’s request but relevant to Sunak’s promises: if at the time you set targets they were actually slam dunk gimmies, driving trains pays well as an alternative career.

    However, the truth here, in case you have not been paying attention, If the economy grows at 0.00001 and 0.000001 is shaved off borrowing, Sunak can tell Mr Speaker he has grown the economy and got borrowing down, at every PMQs. And he is.
  • Pulpstar said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    Immigration is killing Biden



    US inflation falling like a stone doesn't seem to have helped him - so it probably won't here. The "cost of living crisis" as a phrase will outlive inflation.

    (Theory: the public understand that falling inflation doesn't mean prices are falling well enough - middle class condescension notwithstanding.)
    The USA seems to be doing very well judging by various social media posts (UPS drivers earning $100,000 for example) wage wise but Biden doesn't seem to be getting credit for any of it.
    Mind you, almost everyone in the USA also seems not to be able to do anything else other than spend like a drunken sailor too judging by the Dave Ramsey phone ins.
    When having hundreds of thousands in student debt has been normalised why not spend a bit more becomes the mentality.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,038
    edited December 2023
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    A 2GW HVDC line between (as an example) London and Aberdeen would cost approx £1-2bn.
    It's not difficult.

    The materials and labour would cost approx £1-2bn

    The legal fees and opportunity cost of the public inquiry will cost approx £10-20bn
    That's why it's being done out at sea ... fish don't vote for NIMBY parties.
    Yes, it would be in the upper end of the range to run it offshore, but probably simpler to do. And it would pay for itself very quickly.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,453

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    Immigration is killing Biden



    US inflation falling like a stone doesn't seem to have helped him - so it probably won't here. The "cost of living crisis" as a phrase will outlive inflation.

    (Theory: the public understand that falling inflation doesn't mean prices are falling well enough - middle class condescension notwithstanding.)
    Images like this will destroy Biden’s campaign


    “BREAKING: Video from a contact on the ground in Eagle Pass, TX right now shows a mass of thousands of migrants waiting to be processed by Border Patrol after they crossed illegally today. I’ve spent hundreds of days there over the last 2+ years and I’ve never seen it like this.”

    https://x.com/billmelugin_/status/1736928008433537100?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    To too many Dems that's seen as a good thing.

    They would rather Trump wins than have any form of border control.
    Immigration is possibly going to be THE issue across the west for the next few years
  • Nigelb said:

    Wasted wind power adds £40 to household energy bills, says think tank
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67494082

    This is pretty mad.
    It's currently costing over half a billion a year because the grid doesn't have sufficient capacity to transmit power from the north to the south of the UK. That's likely to quadruple over the next decade.

    A 2GW HVDC line between (as an example) London and Aberdeen would cost approx £1-2bn.
    It's not difficult.

    That's mundane infrastructure - too boring and cheap for politicians to be interested in.

    Big expensive bridges and railways are what excites them.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    I wonder what they'll build first, HS2 linking Leeds to London, or the network capability to transmit more power from the north to the south. Hmm.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,038
    edited December 2023
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wasted wind power adds £40 to household energy bills, says think tank
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67494082

    This is pretty mad.
    It's currently costing over half a billion a year because the grid doesn't have sufficient capacity to transmit power from the north to the south of the UK. That's likely to quadruple over the next decade.

    A 2GW HVDC line between (as an example) London and Aberdeen would cost approx £1-2bn.
    It's not difficult.

    Already being done. PLus SEGL1 from near Dunbar to England, I believe.

    https://utilityweek.co.uk/england-scotland-electricity-superhighway-gets-go-ahead/

    Should have been done before, I agree.
    From the BBC article:
    ...Last year Ofgem approved four projects to help ease transmission issues, including an undersea cable between Peterhead in Aberdeenshire and Drax in Yorkshire.
    But Carbon Tracker warned wind generation capacity in Scotland was set to be four times greater by 2030, but cabling would only double in that time, under current plans...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Regarding last night's discussion on cash, I see that everybody had their two bob's worth

    A sterling effort all round.
    Can't say that Euro'ver the temptation to pun.
    I'd bet a pound to a halfpenny that we haven't heard the last of this from ydoethur.
    I'm aiming for an entry in the Guineas Book Of Records.
    Barely finished my breakfast groats, and I come onto PB to find that Ydoethur has started punning already.
    I’m hoping to make a cents-ational contribution to this one.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,146
    edited December 2023
    This is fascinating, move over Captain Stagg.

    Maureen Sweeney, Irish postmistress who reported the 1944 storm that delayed D-Day – obituary

    She did not know the data she sent from Europe’s most westerly weather station went straight to the Allies – even though Ireland was neutral


    Maureen Sweeney, who has died aged 100, was a postmistress on the west coast of Ireland who supplied the weather reports of a storm in the Atlantic that persuaded Eisenhower to delay D-Day by 24 hours.

    The Blacksod lighthouse-cum-post office, on the wind-battered Mullet peninsula in County Mayo, was Europe’s most westerly weather observation station. Every hour, day and night, reports had to be collected on barometric pressure, wind speed, temperature, precipitation, water vapour and other variables, using rudimentary instruments, by the assistant postmistress Maureen Flavin (as she then was); her future husband, Ted Sweeney, the lighthousekeeper; his mother, the postmistress; and his sister. Their reports were then transmitted over crackling telephone line to Ballina, Co Mayo, then to the Irish Meteorological Service in Dublin.

    What they did not know was that, although Ireland was ostensibly neutral, the Taoiseach, Éamon de Valera, was sharing weather intelligence with the Allies, but not the Nazis. (With a similar sleight of hand, the Irish government had ordered huge stone signs saying “Éire” to be erected on the Irish coastline to ward off belligerent aircraft; each sign had a special number, which in fact made them invaluable for navigation, but these numbers were only supplied to the Allies.)


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2023/12/18/maureen-sweeney-irish-post-d-day-overlord-eisenhower/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,976
    Nigelb said:

    Europe too, if that's any consolation.

    UK economy at risk of ‘hard landing’, warns bond giant Pimco
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2023/dec/19/uk-economy-at-risk-of-hard-landing-warning-ftse-pound-eurozone-inflation-pimco

    Dare one suggest that a company that has something of a vested interest in volatility in the bond market and wants interest rates to come down a bit faster thinks that there are risks in not doing so.

    The reality is that our economy has been surviving on negative real interest rates since 2009 and we finally have a real return on capital, albeit an historically modest one. That will undoubtedly hurt those who have been dependent on cheap money but it will also keep the downward pressure on inflation.

    There is, of course, a risk that the Bank will be too slow in bringing interest rates down, just as it was too slow in putting them up. Sterling is also quite strong at the moment which should also reduce inflationary pressures on imported goods as well. The Bank is waiting to see if inflation continues to fall sharply. As are we all.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,455

    NHS dentistry as we know it 'gone for good'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-67754983

    There is a really odd, long running politics and public puzzle here. I have used private dentists for years now because there was no alternative and having started I carry on. Million of others do the same or just drop out of teeth health.

    While this is a recurring moan this does not cause the sort of political firestorm that overturns nations and causes governments to rethink or fall.

    But the reality with teeth in the UK is so far removed from the 'NHS, universal, free at the point of delivery and based on need' is so far from Attlee's NHS that it is unrecognisable.

    If they said 'Having a baby is a lifestyle choice, so if you want medical care you go private and if you can't afford it you phone a friend' the government would fall in five minutes. Odd
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,038

    Nigelb said:

    Wasted wind power adds £40 to household energy bills, says think tank
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67494082

    This is pretty mad.
    It's currently costing over half a billion a year because the grid doesn't have sufficient capacity to transmit power from the north to the south of the UK. That's likely to quadruple over the next decade.

    A 2GW HVDC line between (as an example) London and Aberdeen would cost approx £1-2bn.
    It's not difficult.

    That's mundane infrastructure - too boring and cheap for politicians to be interested in.

    Big expensive bridges and railways are what excites them.
    We just cancelled HS2.

    Let's face it, the current government just isn't sufficiently interested in infrastructure at all.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,038
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Europe too, if that's any consolation.

    UK economy at risk of ‘hard landing’, warns bond giant Pimco
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2023/dec/19/uk-economy-at-risk-of-hard-landing-warning-ftse-pound-eurozone-inflation-pimco

    Dare one suggest that a company that has something of a vested interest in volatility in the bond market and wants interest rates to come down a bit faster thinks that there are risks in not doing so.

    The reality is that our economy has been surviving on negative real interest rates since 2009 and we finally have a real return on capital, albeit an historically modest one. That will undoubtedly hurt those who have been dependent on cheap money but it will also keep the downward pressure on inflation.

    There is, of course, a risk that the Bank will be too slow in bringing interest rates down, just as it was too slow in putting them up. Sterling is also quite strong at the moment which should also reduce inflationary pressures on imported goods as well. The Bank is waiting to see if inflation continues to fall sharply. As are we all.
    My read of it was simply that they don't think either the UK or Europe iare in a particularly good state whatever choices are made.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,976
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Europe too, if that's any consolation.

    UK economy at risk of ‘hard landing’, warns bond giant Pimco
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2023/dec/19/uk-economy-at-risk-of-hard-landing-warning-ftse-pound-eurozone-inflation-pimco

    Dare one suggest that a company that has something of a vested interest in volatility in the bond market and wants interest rates to come down a bit faster thinks that there are risks in not doing so.

    The reality is that our economy has been surviving on negative real interest rates since 2009 and we finally have a real return on capital, albeit an historically modest one. That will undoubtedly hurt those who have been dependent on cheap money but it will also keep the downward pressure on inflation.

    There is, of course, a risk that the Bank will be too slow in bringing interest rates down, just as it was too slow in putting them up. Sterling is also quite strong at the moment which should also reduce inflationary pressures on imported goods as well. The Bank is waiting to see if inflation continues to fall sharply. As are we all.
    My read of it was simply that they don't think either the UK or Europe iare in a particularly good state whatever choices are made.
    There is a pervasive mood of pessimism although I note that the traditional Santa rally has been particularly strong this year.

    I think that both the UK and much of the EU is suffering from debt exhaustion. We have debt piled up everywhere, whether in the public sector or in businesses and, as interest rates become higher in real terms, this is a drag on future growth. We have been living on our seed corn for too long and people are wondering where the next harvest is going to come from.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    DavidL said:

    Fishing said:

    DavidL said:

    Sorry to go off topic so quickly and by being so parochial but this is a very important day for Scottish politics with the Scottish budget. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-67750367

    Basically, the Scottish government's policy of universal benefits buying popularity has run out of road. Significant cuts are now inevitable as, sadly, are more tax increases. Getting consultants, for example, to come to Scotland is going to be challenging.

    I suppose you mean medical consultants. If you mean management experts otoh, getting rid of McKinsey's and similar incompetent parasites is one of the few things that could tempt me to support higher taxes.
    Yes, I meant medical consultants. There are huge numbers of vacancies in the Scottish NHS. A local witch hunt which proved to have no substance whatsoever left Tayside without any cancer specialists for a time. There has been 1 or 2 employed now but it has proved very hard work.
    Wasn't this the inevitable outcome of higher income taxes in Scotland vs England? Why would anyone stick around when they can get a job south of the border for the same or more money and have a higher take home? Call it selfish or whatever but people are rational, especially those in the highest income brackets. It might only be £1000 per year for them but they're in a 49% marginal rate which people notice.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,976
    Anyway, got another jury coming back this morning on yet another alleged rape. Better go and see what they have to say.
  • DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Europe too, if that's any consolation.

    UK economy at risk of ‘hard landing’, warns bond giant Pimco
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2023/dec/19/uk-economy-at-risk-of-hard-landing-warning-ftse-pound-eurozone-inflation-pimco

    Dare one suggest that a company that has something of a vested interest in volatility in the bond market and wants interest rates to come down a bit faster thinks that there are risks in not doing so.

    The reality is that our economy has been surviving on negative real interest rates since 2009 and we finally have a real return on capital, albeit an historically modest one. That will undoubtedly hurt those who have been dependent on cheap money but it will also keep the downward pressure on inflation.

    There is, of course, a risk that the Bank will be too slow in bringing interest rates down, just as it was too slow in putting them up. Sterling is also quite strong at the moment which should also reduce inflationary pressures on imported goods as well. The Bank is waiting to see if inflation continues to fall sharply. As are we all.
    Will we see an inflation 'surprise' tomorrow? Petrol and diesel prices have fallen significantly in the last few weeks (I know some of this won't affect NOV CPI) and things like food price increases have slowed, maybe we could see sub 4% CPI tomorrow? (Oct 4.6%).

    I don't expect any falls in bank rate maybe 0.25% until the Bank is satisfied that we really are on track/approaching the 2% CPI.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,793
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    A 2GW HVDC line between (as an example) London and Aberdeen would cost approx £1-2bn.
    It's not difficult.

    The materials and labour would cost approx £1-2bn

    The legal fees and opportunity cost of the public inquiry will cost approx £10-20bn
    That's why it's being done out at sea ... fish don't vote for NIMBY parties.
    Yes, it would be in the upper end of the range to run it offshore, but probably simpler to do. And it would pay for itself very quickly.
    The 'problem' with running it offshore is, like the chunnel connector, it needs to be DC so you need converters at each end which will add a bit
  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Wasted wind power adds £40 to household energy bills, says think tank
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67494082

    This is pretty mad.
    It's currently costing over half a billion a year because the grid doesn't have sufficient capacity to transmit power from the north to the south of the UK. That's likely to quadruple over the next decade.

    A 2GW HVDC line between (as an example) London and Aberdeen would cost approx £1-2bn.
    It's not difficult.

    That's mundane infrastructure - too boring and cheap for politicians to be interested in.

    Big expensive bridges and railways are what excites them.
    We just cancelled HS2.

    Let's face it, the current government just isn't sufficiently interested in infrastructure at all.
    Its not that they're not interested its that they prefer things which either get them a good headline or will give them a 'legacy'.

    So they are attracted to things which claim to be 'the biggest ever' or 'world beating' and such things inevitably tend to be expensive and/or difficult to implement.

    This focus on the 'big and expensive' is also encouraged by the myriad of organisations who benefit from them.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,455

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Many of the genuine moderates are no longer in the party.

    Column. On the Tory moderates who are apparently*beginning* to worry that their party might *get* a bit extreme *after* the next election.
    https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1737016196061434041

    It's a very good column

    A sane party would not have a Rwanda policy in the first place. Away from the hype and the fight, there’s barely a cigarette paper’s difference between the version wanted by the rebels, which is harebrained and unworkable, and the version proposed by Sunak, which is also harebrained and unworkable. It is a function of cringing deference to nonsense that the policy even exists, let alone that they basically all ended up voting for it.

    Today, the Conservatives are scary. I don’t just mean in a Liz Truss way, like an unexpected midnight clown at the end of your bed. I mean that they feel flighty, erratic, unmoderated, prone to alarming lurches. With Brexit, after so many years of fights and votes and stasis, I can understand why even some moderate MPs just sighed and waved it through. But Rwanda? They all knew it was nonsense, from the PM who proposed it, to the home secretary who advanced it, to the supposed moderates themselves, and they all voted for it anyway.
    I think it's something we've not discussed enough on here, tbh. The Tories are a genuinely different party from say, 2015. Johnson's tenure and the whole Brexit fight transformed the Tory party and cut it adrift from the political centre far more than Corbyn achieved with Labour. The party may have the same name as eight years ago but it is arguably an entirely different party, closer to UKIP than the pre-Brexit Conservatives.
    While the question of cause and blame is about as complex and ancient as Israel/Palestine, it may be worth thinking about this:
    1) The 2016 referendum was lost because of laziness, folly and a terrible campaign from the centre
    2) Post referendum a cross party centrist consensus of those who wanted remain failed to agree a 'Norway for Now' proposal, or similar, which would have honoured Brexit and got most of what they wanted.

    As a result the Tory party has for now abolished itself for its traditional centrist base, and Labour have to implement a Brexit policy they are all opposed to. Because they faffed about with Ref2, and leadership from the friend of Hamas they too have inflicted huge damage on themselves and us.

    A figure worth noting. Tory support in polling is sometimes running at 22%. This is half of the 2019 election figure of 44%. They have lost 50% of their base.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,155
    algarkirk said:

    NHS dentistry as we know it 'gone for good'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-67754983

    There is a really odd, long running politics and public puzzle here. I have used private dentists for years now because there was no alternative and having started I carry on. Million of others do the same or just drop out of teeth health.

    While this is a recurring moan this does not cause the sort of political firestorm that overturns nations and causes governments to rethink or fall.

    But the reality with teeth in the UK is so far removed from the 'NHS, universal, free at the point of delivery and based on need' is so far from Attlee's NHS that it is unrecognisable.

    If they said 'Having a baby is a lifestyle choice, so if you want medical care you go private and if you can't afford it you phone a friend' the government would fall in five minutes. Odd
    Suspect this is because NHS dentistry costs at the point of delivery, and is merely subsidised. If it were free at the point of delivery, there would be more anger.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    A 2GW HVDC line between (as an example) London and Aberdeen would cost approx £1-2bn.
    It's not difficult.

    The materials and labour would cost approx £1-2bn

    The legal fees and opportunity cost of the public inquiry will cost approx £10-20bn
    That's why it's being done out at sea ... fish don't vote for NIMBY parties.
    Yes, it would be in the upper end of the range to run it offshore, but probably simpler to do. And it would pay for itself very quickly.
    The 'problem' with running it offshore is, like the chunnel connector, it needs to be DC so you need converters at each end which will add a bit
    And the additional hazard of Chinese container ships dragging their anchors on their way to St Petersburg.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,999
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    Immigration is killing Biden



    US inflation falling like a stone doesn't seem to have helped him - so it probably won't here. The "cost of living crisis" as a phrase will outlive inflation.

    (Theory: the public understand that falling inflation doesn't mean prices are falling well enough - middle class condescension notwithstanding.)
    Images like this will destroy Biden’s campaign


    “BREAKING: Video from a contact on the ground in Eagle Pass, TX right now shows a mass of thousands of migrants waiting to be processed by Border Patrol after they crossed illegally today. I’ve spent hundreds of days there over the last 2+ years and I’ve never seen it like this.”

    https://x.com/billmelugin_/status/1736928008433537100?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    To too many Dems that's seen as a good thing.

    They would rather Trump wins than have any form of border control.
    Immigration is possibly going to be THE issue across the west for the next few years
    It certainly will if you have anything to do with it.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,455
    carnforth said:

    algarkirk said:

    NHS dentistry as we know it 'gone for good'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-67754983

    There is a really odd, long running politics and public puzzle here. I have used private dentists for years now because there was no alternative and having started I carry on. Million of others do the same or just drop out of teeth health.

    While this is a recurring moan this does not cause the sort of political firestorm that overturns nations and causes governments to rethink or fall.

    But the reality with teeth in the UK is so far removed from the 'NHS, universal, free at the point of delivery and based on need' is so far from Attlee's NHS that it is unrecognisable.

    If they said 'Having a baby is a lifestyle choice, so if you want medical care you go private and if you can't afford it you phone a friend' the government would fall in five minutes. Odd
    Suspect this is because NHS dentistry costs at the point of delivery, and is merely subsidised. If it were free at the point of delivery, there would be more anger.
    Could be. So moving two steps from the original and cherished vision of the NHS (first make it cost quite a bit, second, render it unavailable) is less politically damaging than only moving one step. Nice case of the slowly boiling frog.

    BTW social care, delays now decades old, is showing the same symptoms - moans but its not red hot. Labour never mention it...
  • MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Fishing said:

    DavidL said:

    Sorry to go off topic so quickly and by being so parochial but this is a very important day for Scottish politics with the Scottish budget. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-67750367

    Basically, the Scottish government's policy of universal benefits buying popularity has run out of road. Significant cuts are now inevitable as, sadly, are more tax increases. Getting consultants, for example, to come to Scotland is going to be challenging.

    I suppose you mean medical consultants. If you mean management experts otoh, getting rid of McKinsey's and similar incompetent parasites is one of the few things that could tempt me to support higher taxes.
    Yes, I meant medical consultants. There are huge numbers of vacancies in the Scottish NHS. A local witch hunt which proved to have no substance whatsoever left Tayside without any cancer specialists for a time. There has been 1 or 2 employed now but it has proved very hard work.
    Wasn't this the inevitable outcome of higher income taxes in Scotland vs England? Why would anyone stick around when they can get a job south of the border for the same or more money and have a higher take home? Call it selfish or whatever but people are rational, especially those in the highest income brackets. It might only be £1000 per year for them but they're in a 49% marginal rate which people notice.
    I don't think people are going to uproot their lives and move to a different part of the country for a thousand per year.

    But it could well have an effect on recruiting the future workforce.
This discussion has been closed.