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Not very big, and not very Cleverly – politicalbetting.com

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  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,657
    edited November 2023
    Eabhal said:

    One of the dirty little secrets is that the number of economically inactive not including retired and students is up massively since before COVID. I think 700k more.

    So basically we have imported millions of new people, large number of existing people aren't now working, but GDP is hardly growing, productivity has been crap since 2008.

    That is a ticking time bomb. Taxes just have to keep rising to support pubic services for a rapidly expanding population....easy to get into a death spiral with such a scenario.

    Would also be interesting to know what are the makeup of the 500k people leaving a year. Are we suffering a significant brain drain? I would hedge a bet we are. We get the occasional media focus on some doctors going to Australia for the sun, sea and snakes, but what about wider economy?

    Interesting stuff.

    If the 1.2 million who have arrived are earning more per hour than those who have left the country and those who have left the workforce since COVID-19, headline productivity figures might actually have increased as a result.

    Indeed, if the 500,000 who left are people retiring to Spain or something, GDP per capita will have increased (relative to some counterfactual). And what is going on with real wages, and the distribution of those wage increases? Is it happening at the top or the bottom, or equally everywhere? Why is the labour market so tight even while we are importing 1.2 million a year?

    I might try to answer these questions later but currently binging Grand Designs.
    I've been a bit silly and forgotten about all the student visas. But shouldn't they largely balance out on a net basis in the long run? Is this just a post-COVID effect?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 11,872
    Of course we also had one off “geopolitical” influxes from Ukraine, Hong Kong and Afghanistan in the last 2 years. I can’t see the breakdown for those though.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,827
    isam said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    The BBC headline on the Dutch election slightly overdoes it:

    Dutch election: Anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders wins dramatic victory

    The 'win' involves winning 37 seats out of 150.

    In Dutch terms that's a lot of seats, given the PR voting system where 0.67% wins you a seat parliament.
    Three quarters of those who voted voted for a different party. In a PR/many party system people are voting with a view to the total picture. Just as in the UK in the next election loads of people will vote Labour in some areas and LD in others in order to vote for the centrist option.

    37 seats out of 150 is a lot in a PR system if, and only if, you have a good number of allies. If you don't, it is not a great result. As the Tories may find out in 2024 if they were to win as many as 300 seats out of 650.
    Here is where the establishment gets results like this wrong. Similar to Brexit

    Opponents of Wilders should take it as a wake up call that more people than ever are attracted to this kind of politics, rather than find solace by pointing out the electoral difficulty of forming a
    parliament

    Same as Brexit; rather than realise that 52% of voters were desperately unhappy with the status quo, the establishment tried to pretend it hadn’t happened - ‘advisory’, ‘people’s vote’ and all that nonsense

    It’s so similar to a relationship - if a partner has come very close to cheating, they’ve met up with someone but didn’t seal the deal, the fact that they haven’t quite done it isn’t a reason to pretend nothings happened - you should be thinking “what have I done to put them off me so much”

    Don't know about the Dutch, but in the UK (leaving nationalists aside) the centre left and centre right voter and politician have hugely more in common with each other than they do with their own party extremes. Streeting has nothing in common with Burgon. Hunt has nothing in common with Braverman. Hunt and Streeting in fact belong to the same centrist world.

    This pretence is a luxury we can afford until the extremes take command.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,111
    "Missing Ukrainian child traced to Putin ally"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67488646
  • glwglw Posts: 9,790

    Sure, but it is a very likely consequence of our demographics. There are still over 100k vacancies in the NHS, 150k in the care sector, 50k in the construction sector, about 1m in total.

    Whatever govt is in charge, whatever people vote for I would expect us to get something like another 3-7m net migration over the next decade. I suggest we should plan for that now and build rather than listen to politicians who say they can stop it, but don't and then moan about them.

    I can remember when a forecast of 70 million by 2030 looked a bit mad, yet we must be right on the cusp of that now, and 80 million by 2050 sounded impossible.

    The amount of EVERYTHING we need to build to keep up with demand is insane, and no party is serious about it.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,211
    Ghedebrav said:

    Sean_F said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    The BBC headline on the Dutch election slightly overdoes it:

    Dutch election: Anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders wins dramatic victory

    The 'win' involves winning 37 seats out of 150.

    In Dutch terms that's a lot of seats, given the PR voting system where 0.67% wins you a seat parliament.
    Three quarters of those who voted voted for a different party. In a PR/many party system people are voting with a view to the total picture. Just as in the UK in the next election loads of people will vote Labour in some areas and LD in others in order to vote for the centrist option.

    37 seats out of 150 is a lot in a PR system if, and only if, you have a good number of allies. If you don't, it is not a great result. As the Tories may find out in 2024 if they were to win as many as 300 seats out of 650.
    Overall, it looks like the centre right/right have 97 seats out of 150, with six more going to Christian fundamentalists. That’s a gigantic defeat for the left.

    Dutch Christian fundamentalists sound like a barrel of laughs...
    The Netherlands (has been) a strange mix of liberals and religious fundamentalists.

    (I don't mean fundamentalists to be derogatory there, trying to find a better term - but there are some very religious/conservative areas - maybe conservatives is a better term. I have a close friend from a very religious area/family who is very much in the liberal camp now.)
  • algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    Most people seeing the news will assume 672,000 people came to the UK in small boats.

    Interesting that there’s still net emigration of EU nationals (10k) and British citizens (84k). So the Brexit hangover continues with our neighbours (or simply the fact our salaries aren’t competitive).

    The number could be magically cut overnight simply by excluding temporary student visas from the figures, like many countries do. Those were about 600k, of which around 20% then extended (and became more long term migrants).

    The overseas student thing has a risk of going too far. Education is a political issue. We have a good number of very fine universities, a higher proportion than many countries. Ignoring PhD level for a moment, what are they for? Surely they should not exist in order to stop good UK applicants being there because high paying overseas students are there instead.

    We will, of course, be told that this does not happen. But elite excellence is a finite resource, so it will.
    Yes and No. What is elite excellence? Oxbridge whose world class researchers barely see an undergraduate because most of the teaching is done by dedicated lecturers and PhD students, but who nonetheless have great employment statistics because it is about already well-connected networking and not because they have a more accurate value of pi than the University of Brighton.
  • Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Energy bills in Great Britain to rise by 5% from January as cap hits £1,928
    Ofgem increases maximum price suppliers can charge for a typical household’s annual gas and electricity use

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/nov/23/energy-bills-great-britain-rise-january-price-cap-ofgem

    There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.

    The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
    How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
    My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.

    Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.

    I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.

    Not looking forward to this renewal.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,445
    Ghedebrav said:

    Sean_F said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    The BBC headline on the Dutch election slightly overdoes it:

    Dutch election: Anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders wins dramatic victory

    The 'win' involves winning 37 seats out of 150.

    In Dutch terms that's a lot of seats, given the PR voting system where 0.67% wins you a seat parliament.
    Three quarters of those who voted voted for a different party. In a PR/many party system people are voting with a view to the total picture. Just as in the UK in the next election loads of people will vote Labour in some areas and LD in others in order to vote for the centrist option.

    37 seats out of 150 is a lot in a PR system if, and only if, you have a good number of allies. If you don't, it is not a great result. As the Tories may find out in 2024 if they were to win as many as 300 seats out of 650.
    Overall, it looks like the centre right/right have 97 seats out of 150, with six more going to Christian fundamentalists. That’s a gigantic defeat for the left.

    Dutch Christian fundamentalists sound like a barrel of laughs...
    Communion might be fun - smokin' de spliff of Christ....
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    What are universities for is indeed a good question. Unless my kids have a very good sense of where a degree will take them, I'll be strongly advising them to go down a different route rather than taking on a ton of debt.

    That said, I just found out my lad is (out of nowhere!) singing a solo in this year's Hanukkah play so maybe showbiz awaits!
  • The thing with saying a place is a shit hole and you'd never live there is that *somebody* has to live there. Now, we're not all ministers in a government that's been in power for 13 years, ripping the arse out of the taxpayer whilst delivering the square root of fuck all for the vast majority of the population, so we quite often don't really get much of a choice where we live.
    Maybe government MPs should have to live in the worst areas of their constituency, and send their kids to the shit hole schools as well?

    The advantage shitholes in Stockton is that its cheap.

    And not much more expensive for the merely mediocre.

    Here's a respectable looking three bed semi for £100k:

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/133923368#/?channel=RES_BUY

    Shitholes in southern England have the disadvantage of the gaps upwards being too large to be aspirational.
  • glw said:

    It's a shame we don't have a Dutch Roger to give us his hot take on the elections there and the UK's immigration figures.

    The PB seer has said that the UK’s immigration figures will lead to a British Geert Wilders pm within 5-10 years. You can’t get a much more of a white hot take than that.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    The national populist victory in the Netherlands comes after a surge of support for similar movements in Germany, France, Sweden, Austria ... Is crystal clear many voters utterly fed up of mass immigration, the refugee crisis, creeping influence of Islam, & out-of-touch elites imposing their luxury beliefs on everybody else
    8:43 AM · Nov 23, 2023"

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1727608781037584626

    And I predict that none of them will succeed in dealing with it.
  • Doctor Mohammad Abu Salmiya, the Director of the Al-Shifa Medical Center in Northern Gaza alongside several other Senior Medical Officials have reportedly just been Arrested by Israeli Soldiers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,369
    edited November 2023

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Energy bills in Great Britain to rise by 5% from January as cap hits £1,928
    Ofgem increases maximum price suppliers can charge for a typical household’s annual gas and electricity use

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/nov/23/energy-bills-great-britain-rise-january-price-cap-ofgem

    There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.

    The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
    How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
    My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.

    Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.

    I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.

    Not looking forward to this renewal.
    Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Lol @ the revision for last year too.

    745k last year, 672k this year.

    1.417M over the prior 2 years !

    & then add on all the people keeping their heads down ...

    And will be totally ignored by people complaining there aren't enough houses.
    There are not enough houses, and also not enough nurses, care staff, doctors, teachers or builders. We could of course, have immigration, including builders and build more houses.
    We've got immigration, record amounts of immigration.

    And those immigrants themselves increase demand for housing and public services while placing more pressure on infrastructure and the environment.
    Sure, but it is a very likely consequence of our demographics. There are still over 100k vacancies in the NHS, 150k in the care sector, 50k in the construction sector, about 1m in total.

    Whatever govt is in charge, whatever people vote for I would expect us to get something like another 3-7m net migration over the next decade. I suggest we should plan for that now and build rather than listen to politicians who say they can stop it, but don't and then moan about them.
    Those vacancies are the job opportunities for those entering the workforce and those in the workforce who want to improve their skillset.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,483
    edited November 2023

    One of the dirty little secrets is that the number of economically inactive not including retired and students is up massively since before COVID. I think 700k more.

    So basically we have imported millions of new people, large number of existing people aren't now working, but GDP is hardly growing, productivity has been crap since 2008.

    That is a ticking time bomb. Taxes just have to keep rising to support pubic services for a rapidly expanding population....easy to get into a death spiral with such a scenario.

    Would also be interesting to know what are the makeup of the 500k people leaving a year. Are we suffering a significant brain drain? I would hedge a bet we are. We get the occasional media focus on some doctors going to Australia for the sun, sea and snakes, but what about wider economy?

    Emigration rise "mainly driven by those on initial study visas" according to ONS.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2023
    Shouldn't that be immigration?
    edit - no, just checked

  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    isam said:

    Amazing to think that in 2010 Cameron became PM on a pledge to get immigration down to the tens of thousands!

    A stupid pledge it was too. International movement is a fact of our world, and the problems it causes - to the migrants, to their destinations and to the places they leave - require international cooperation, compromise and other boring stuff that won't win votes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,920
    edited November 2023
    Western journalist has been taken down the new tunnels under the hospital. Also claim the Israelis have found a "command and control" center that they are currently clearing booby traps from.

    https://x.com/TreyYingst/status/1727467320321380772?s=20

    I am sure they will show whatever they find.

    Obviously its propaganda from the Israelis, that they don't exactly fit the description of made as a hospital basement extension by Israelis back in the day.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 52,822
    TimS said:

    One of the dirty little secrets is that the number of economically inactive not including retired and students is up massively since before COVID. I think 700k more.

    So basically we have imported millions of new people, large number of existing people aren't now working, but GDP is hardly growing, productivity has been crap since 2008.

    That is a ticking time bomb. Taxes just have to keep rising to support pubic services for a rapidly expanding population....easy to get into a death spiral with such a scenario.

    Would also be interesting to know what are the makeup of the 500k people leaving a year. Are we suffering a significant brain drain? I would hedge a bet we are. We get the occasional media focus on some doctors going to Australia for the sun, sea and snakes, but what about wider economy?

    The vast majority of people leaving are those who arrived a couple of years before. Short term migrants, of which a big chunk (the biggest I think) are students. It’s ridiculous we include temporary students in our figures. Our universities are a huge export industry, a success story, and people who visit for a couple of years then leave are

    Then there are the EU citizens returning home. There’s still a net outflow, and the gross leavers are obviously a bigger number.

    The net outflow of British citizens is 84k. A significant number will be people with dual citizenship or married to a non-citizen, and I expect many of the rest are retired. No significant evidence of a brain drain, yet. Our world beating foreign language skills probably create some inertia there.
    Waves from expatland, where there’s an estimated half million Brits living, the majority of whom (of the adults anyway) work in white-collar or very skilled trades (O&G, pilots etc).

    On the student numbers, I suspect there’s a pandemic effect still to filter out, that is that fewer students arrived in 2020 and 2021 therefore fewer are leaving now.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,421

    Taz said:
    It also means an end to refining. An astute government might intervene on national security grounds.
    Quite.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 67,874
    Ghedebrav said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    The national populist victory in the Netherlands comes after a surge of support for similar movements in Germany, France, Sweden, Austria ... Is crystal clear many voters utterly fed up of mass immigration, the refugee crisis, creeping influence of Islam, & out-of-touch elites imposing their luxury beliefs on everybody else
    8:43 AM · Nov 23, 2023"

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1727608781037584626

    And I predict that none of them will succeed in dealing with it.
    Is it "crystal clear" ?
    One of the strongest factors in the Dutch election was the acute housing shortage - with the current average house price being over €400K. Clearly that's linked to net immigration, but as in the UK, it doesn't have to be.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Selebian said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Sean_F said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    The BBC headline on the Dutch election slightly overdoes it:

    Dutch election: Anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders wins dramatic victory

    The 'win' involves winning 37 seats out of 150.

    In Dutch terms that's a lot of seats, given the PR voting system where 0.67% wins you a seat parliament.
    Three quarters of those who voted voted for a different party. In a PR/many party system people are voting with a view to the total picture. Just as in the UK in the next election loads of people will vote Labour in some areas and LD in others in order to vote for the centrist option.

    37 seats out of 150 is a lot in a PR system if, and only if, you have a good number of allies. If you don't, it is not a great result. As the Tories may find out in 2024 if they were to win as many as 300 seats out of 650.
    Overall, it looks like the centre right/right have 97 seats out of 150, with six more going to Christian fundamentalists. That’s a gigantic defeat for the left.

    Dutch Christian fundamentalists sound like a barrel of laughs...
    The Netherlands (has been) a strange mix of liberals and religious fundamentalists.

    (I don't mean fundamentalists to be derogatory there, trying to find a better term - but there are some very religious/conservative areas - maybe conservatives is a better term. I have a close friend from a very religious area/family who is very much in the liberal camp now.)
    To be fair, on our honeymoon my wife and I stayed in a Mennonite boarding house in Washington DC (we did go to other places too, to be clear!) and they all were very lovely people.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 67,874
    US Thanksgiving politics at the dinner table.
    https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1727435185258635276
  • Ghedebrav said:

    What are universities for is indeed a good question. Unless my kids have a very good sense of where a degree will take them, I'll be strongly advising them to go down a different route rather than taking on a ton of debt.

    That said, I just found out my lad is (out of nowhere!) singing a solo in this year's Hanukkah play so maybe showbiz awaits!

    Really? We've been assured by PB experts that the entire Jewish population has gone into hiding in fear of its life (oddly enough, in synagogues, whose attendance has risen). Of course, that might be why your tone deaf offspring is now a solo act. (/sarcasm). Well done to the boy. Knock 'em dead.
  • The thing with saying a place is a shit hole and you'd never live there is that *somebody* has to live there. Now, we're not all ministers in a government that's been in power for 13 years, ripping the arse out of the taxpayer whilst delivering the square root of fuck all for the vast majority of the population, so we quite often don't really get much of a choice where we live.
    Maybe government MPs should have to live in the worst areas of their constituency, and send their kids to the shit hole schools as well?

    The advantage shitholes in Stockton is that its cheap.

    And not much more expensive for the merely mediocre.

    Here's a respectable looking three bed semi for £100k:

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/133923368#/?channel=RES_BUY

    Shitholes in southern England have the disadvantage of the gaps upwards being too large to be aspirational.
    That is only just over the border from Stockton Town Centre ward - where life expectancy for women is the lowest in the UK. It's £100k for a reason...
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Ghedebrav said:

    What are universities for is indeed a good question. Unless my kids have a very good sense of where a degree will take them, I'll be strongly advising them to go down a different route rather than taking on a ton of debt.

    That said, I just found out my lad is (out of nowhere!) singing a solo in this year's Hanukkah play so maybe showbiz awaits!

    Really? We've been assured by PB experts that the entire Jewish population has gone into hiding in fear of its life (oddly enough, in synagogues, whose attendance has risen). Of course, that might be why your tone deaf offspring is now a solo act. (/sarcasm). Well done to the boy. Knock 'em dead.
    Ha!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,920
    edited November 2023
    Ghedebrav said:

    Selebian said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Sean_F said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    The BBC headline on the Dutch election slightly overdoes it:

    Dutch election: Anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders wins dramatic victory

    The 'win' involves winning 37 seats out of 150.

    In Dutch terms that's a lot of seats, given the PR voting system where 0.67% wins you a seat parliament.
    Three quarters of those who voted voted for a different party. In a PR/many party system people are voting with a view to the total picture. Just as in the UK in the next election loads of people will vote Labour in some areas and LD in others in order to vote for the centrist option.

    37 seats out of 150 is a lot in a PR system if, and only if, you have a good number of allies. If you don't, it is not a great result. As the Tories may find out in 2024 if they were to win as many as 300 seats out of 650.
    Overall, it looks like the centre right/right have 97 seats out of 150, with six more going to Christian fundamentalists. That’s a gigantic defeat for the left.

    Dutch Christian fundamentalists sound like a barrel of laughs...
    The Netherlands (has been) a strange mix of liberals and religious fundamentalists.

    (I don't mean fundamentalists to be derogatory there, trying to find a better term - but there are some very religious/conservative areas - maybe conservatives is a better term. I have a close friend from a very religious area/family who is very much in the liberal camp now.)
    To be fair, on our honeymoon my wife and I stayed in a Mennonite boarding house in Washington DC (we did go to other places too, to be clear!) and they all were very lovely people.
    I am not sure I would describe the Mennonites as fundamentalists.

    There wealth has always been driven that they are flexible enough in their beliefs to position themselves in a world such they can do business with the "English" while still being acceptable to the Amish.

    That isn't exactly fundamentalist...if you are willing to bend your rules as the world adapts. Well those car things, we need them. Electricity, well seems like that would be ideal. Cell phones, can't do business without them (just none of the grubby stuff from the internet allowed).
  • Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Energy bills in Great Britain to rise by 5% from January as cap hits £1,928
    Ofgem increases maximum price suppliers can charge for a typical household’s annual gas and electricity use

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/nov/23/energy-bills-great-britain-rise-january-price-cap-ofgem

    There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.

    The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
    How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
    My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.

    Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.

    I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.

    Not looking forward to this renewal.
    Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
    Bugger.

    I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.

    May have to reduce the footwear budget.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,827
    Ghedebrav said:

    What are universities for is indeed a good question. Unless my kids have a very good sense of where a degree will take them, I'll be strongly advising them to go down a different route rather than taking on a ton of debt.

    That said, I just found out my lad is (out of nowhere!) singing a solo in this year's Hanukkah play so maybe showbiz awaits!

    There are sort of three categories of first degree; those with obviously extrinsic value (business studies) those with obviously intrinsic value (Akkadian and Elamite cuneiform) and those who shall remain nameless with neither in any obvious sense. There is a fourth category of subjects which simply are not the proper subject of degree level work (Martian anthropology). And a fifth that are suspiciously popular (psychology? criminology?

    The most money will mostly be achieved by the first, but best of all is those who can genuinely combine intrinsic value (really loving the stuff) with extrinsic value (it will work towards a truly good life).

    I suggest advising accordingly.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,082

    What is interesting with the migration figures is not only how high net migration is, but also how huge incoming and outgoing is up. 1.2m vs 500k

    A bit like the public never understand relative poverty, I bet most of the public don't even realise this.

    1.2 million incomers in one year is totally unsustainable, (regardless of how many people left at the same time).
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,483
    No-one cares about emigrant numbers, so it's the gross immigration figures that affect voting, whereas the media focus entirely on the net figures
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,316

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Energy bills in Great Britain to rise by 5% from January as cap hits £1,928
    Ofgem increases maximum price suppliers can charge for a typical household’s annual gas and electricity use

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/nov/23/energy-bills-great-britain-rise-january-price-cap-ofgem

    There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.

    The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
    How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
    My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.

    Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.

    I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.

    Not looking forward to this renewal.
    Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
    Bugger.

    I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.

    May have to reduce the footwear budget.
    Truly the end of days.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 52,822
    A good analysis of what was happening at Binance.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=De4QjH9fpgo

    Internal communications show that they were told to move US users to a regulated US entity, but chose not to and obsfucate instead, that they were aware their platform was being used for money laundering and failed to close accounts, including a known Russian darknet marketplace called Hydra, and encouraging users they did have to kick off to simply open another account.

    In addition, they’ve never completed a full audit, and the CEO was evasive earlier this year when asked if they could afford the fine and remain solvent. The fine under discussion at the time, was half the $4.3bn fine that was actually handed down by the judge.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,316

    Interesting anecdote of our broken public services yesterday.

    Saw a guy who works 40 hours a week, minimum wage, supports his school age daughter and elderly disabled mother. The family get UC support for part of their rent.

    This guy's mother had a suspected heart attack, he called an ambulance which arrived promptly, took her 20 miles to the nearest hospital (Salisbury). Reassured by paramedics, he, needing the money, went to work and asked paramedics to ask the hospital to call him when any news, or if and when his mother could be collected so he could drive in and pick her up.

    Hospital decided the mother had not had a heart attack (although does need further tests) and packed her off home in a taxi. The guy arrived home has a taxi pulled up outside their flat with his mother, taxi driver demanding £60. The guy had no option but to pay so is now borrowing from friends until payday.

    Life is rather shit for some people.

    Although thats not a great story, I wonder where the blame (if that is the right word) is here? I assume we don't expect an ambulance to bring her home. Presumably she was not able to say no to the taxi (elderly disabled etc). Presumably someone at the hospital followed the usual discharge route.
    All true, no doubt. Her English is almost non-existent, she's only in the UK because her son felt obliged to look after her.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,837
    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    TimS said:

    What does the shock Dutch election result mean, soon after the shock Argentine result? I think it means voters blame incumbents for inflation. That’s bad for the Tories.

    Yep. Though historically inflation has tended to be the number one trigger for revolutions and the rise of populism, not just a change of incumbent. It makes people's lives seem out of control.

    Many examples in history of course, with the most recent being the massive food price inflation leading up to the Arab Spring.

    Doesn't bode well for the Tories, but also doesn't bode hugely well for Biden.
    People will grin and bear unemployment, but as you say, rampant inflation makes them want to topple the government (St. Petersburg, in Spring 1917, being the classic example).
    Or Argentina, somewhat more recently, where inflation is 100% and the new government are about to move to formal dollarisation.
    Milei wants to move to formal dollarisation. The central bank has said it doesn't have enough dollars to do so. I'm unclear whether this is something that is wholly under the President's control and the legislature is not controlled by Milei.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,316

    Interesting anecdote of our broken public services yesterday.

    Saw a guy who works 40 hours a week, minimum wage, supports his school age daughter and elderly disabled mother. The family get UC support for part of their rent.

    This guy's mother had a suspected heart attack, he called an ambulance which arrived promptly, took her 20 miles to the nearest hospital (Salisbury). Reassured by paramedics, he, needing the money, went to work and asked paramedics to ask the hospital to call him when any news, or if and when his mother could be collected so he could drive in and pick her up.

    Hospital decided the mother had not had a heart attack (although does need further tests) and packed her off home in a taxi. The guy arrived home has a taxi pulled up outside their flat with his mother, taxi driver demanding £60. The guy had no option but to pay so is now borrowing from friends until payday.

    Life is rather shit for some people.

    That's not a broken public service that's a public service which cannot be bothered to think of other people.
    Yeah, maybe. Still shit for the family though.
  • Interesting anecdote of our broken public services yesterday.

    Saw a guy who works 40 hours a week, minimum wage, supports his school age daughter and elderly disabled mother. The family get UC support for part of their rent.

    This guy's mother had a suspected heart attack, he called an ambulance which arrived promptly, took her 20 miles to the nearest hospital (Salisbury). Reassured by paramedics, he, needing the money, went to work and asked paramedics to ask the hospital to call him when any news, or if and when his mother could be collected so he could drive in and pick her up.

    Hospital decided the mother had not had a heart attack (although does need further tests) and packed her off home in a taxi. The guy arrived home has a taxi pulled up outside their flat with his mother, taxi driver demanding £60. The guy had no option but to pay so is now borrowing from friends until payday.

    Life is rather shit for some people.

    Although thats not a great story, I wonder where the blame (if that is the right word) is here? I assume we don't expect an ambulance to bring her home. Presumably she was not able to say no to the taxi (elderly disabled etc). Presumably someone at the hospital followed the usual discharge route.
    The more important point (well, secondary to the mother living to fight another day) is that many of our fellow Brits are just one unexpected bill away from hardship and insolvency.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,837
    Selebian said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Sean_F said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    The BBC headline on the Dutch election slightly overdoes it:

    Dutch election: Anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders wins dramatic victory

    The 'win' involves winning 37 seats out of 150.

    In Dutch terms that's a lot of seats, given the PR voting system where 0.67% wins you a seat parliament.
    Three quarters of those who voted voted for a different party. In a PR/many party system people are voting with a view to the total picture. Just as in the UK in the next election loads of people will vote Labour in some areas and LD in others in order to vote for the centrist option.

    37 seats out of 150 is a lot in a PR system if, and only if, you have a good number of allies. If you don't, it is not a great result. As the Tories may find out in 2024 if they were to win as many as 300 seats out of 650.
    Overall, it looks like the centre right/right have 97 seats out of 150, with six more going to Christian fundamentalists. That’s a gigantic defeat for the left.

    Dutch Christian fundamentalists sound like a barrel of laughs...
    The Netherlands (has been) a strange mix of liberals and religious fundamentalists.

    (I don't mean fundamentalists to be derogatory there, trying to find a better term - but there are some very religious/conservative areas - maybe conservatives is a better term. I have a close friend from a very religious area/family who is very much in the liberal camp now.)
    Dutch liberalism is driven partly by these strong religious beliefs. It's liberalism so you don't interfere with my religion rather than the stereotype of all the Dutch being massively socially liberal.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Energy bills in Great Britain to rise by 5% from January as cap hits £1,928
    Ofgem increases maximum price suppliers can charge for a typical household’s annual gas and electricity use

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/nov/23/energy-bills-great-britain-rise-january-price-cap-ofgem

    There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.

    The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
    How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
    My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.

    Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.

    I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.

    Not looking forward to this renewal.
    Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
    Bugger.

    I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.

    May have to reduce the footwear budget.
    Truly the end of days.
    The cost of living crisis is real.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,270
    glw said:

    Sure, but it is a very likely consequence of our demographics. There are still over 100k vacancies in the NHS, 150k in the care sector, 50k in the construction sector, about 1m in total.

    Whatever govt is in charge, whatever people vote for I would expect us to get something like another 3-7m net migration over the next decade. I suggest we should plan for that now and build rather than listen to politicians who say they can stop it, but don't and then moan about them.

    I can remember when a forecast of 70 million by 2030 looked a bit mad, yet we must be right on the cusp of that now, and 80 million by 2050 sounded impossible.

    The amount of EVERYTHING we need to build to keep up with demand is insane, and no party is serious about it.
    The population growth in Ireland mirrors that of the UK but one tenth the scale.



    Ireland has taken a different approach. Over the last 25 years there has been a massive increase in road building with new motorways, plus big increase in housing, schools. health centres etc. This has created an economic boom with improved housing and services. A model for the UK.

    Housing in Dublin is still very pricey though. It's a London effect.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 47,727

    Selebian said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Sean_F said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    The BBC headline on the Dutch election slightly overdoes it:

    Dutch election: Anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders wins dramatic victory

    The 'win' involves winning 37 seats out of 150.

    In Dutch terms that's a lot of seats, given the PR voting system where 0.67% wins you a seat parliament.
    Three quarters of those who voted voted for a different party. In a PR/many party system people are voting with a view to the total picture. Just as in the UK in the next election loads of people will vote Labour in some areas and LD in others in order to vote for the centrist option.

    37 seats out of 150 is a lot in a PR system if, and only if, you have a good number of allies. If you don't, it is not a great result. As the Tories may find out in 2024 if they were to win as many as 300 seats out of 650.
    Overall, it looks like the centre right/right have 97 seats out of 150, with six more going to Christian fundamentalists. That’s a gigantic defeat for the left.

    Dutch Christian fundamentalists sound like a barrel of laughs...
    The Netherlands (has been) a strange mix of liberals and religious fundamentalists.

    (I don't mean fundamentalists to be derogatory there, trying to find a better term - but there are some very religious/conservative areas - maybe conservatives is a better term. I have a close friend from a very religious area/family who is very much in the liberal camp now.)
    Dutch liberalism is driven partly by these strong religious beliefs. It's liberalism so you don't interfere with my religion rather than the stereotype of all the Dutch being massively socially liberal.
    Which it turn came out of the Wars of Religion. If everyone lets other people live as they like
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 52,822

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Energy bills in Great Britain to rise by 5% from January as cap hits £1,928
    Ofgem increases maximum price suppliers can charge for a typical household’s annual gas and electricity use

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/nov/23/energy-bills-great-britain-rise-january-price-cap-ofgem

    There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.

    The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
    How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
    My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.

    Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.

    I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.

    Not looking forward to this renewal.
    Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
    Bugger.

    I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.

    May have to reduce the footwear budget.
    Truly the end of days.
    The cost of living crisis is real.
    For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,837

    Ghedebrav said:

    Selebian said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Sean_F said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    The BBC headline on the Dutch election slightly overdoes it:

    Dutch election: Anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders wins dramatic victory

    The 'win' involves winning 37 seats out of 150.

    In Dutch terms that's a lot of seats, given the PR voting system where 0.67% wins you a seat parliament.
    Three quarters of those who voted voted for a different party. In a PR/many party system people are voting with a view to the total picture. Just as in the UK in the next election loads of people will vote Labour in some areas and LD in others in order to vote for the centrist option.

    37 seats out of 150 is a lot in a PR system if, and only if, you have a good number of allies. If you don't, it is not a great result. As the Tories may find out in 2024 if they were to win as many as 300 seats out of 650.
    Overall, it looks like the centre right/right have 97 seats out of 150, with six more going to Christian fundamentalists. That’s a gigantic defeat for the left.

    Dutch Christian fundamentalists sound like a barrel of laughs...
    The Netherlands (has been) a strange mix of liberals and religious fundamentalists.

    (I don't mean fundamentalists to be derogatory there, trying to find a better term - but there are some very religious/conservative areas - maybe conservatives is a better term. I have a close friend from a very religious area/family who is very much in the liberal camp now.)
    To be fair, on our honeymoon my wife and I stayed in a Mennonite boarding house in Washington DC (we did go to other places too, to be clear!) and they all were very lovely people.
    I am not sure I would describe the Mennonites as fundamentalists.

    There wealth has always been driven that they are flexible enough in their beliefs to position themselves in a world such they can do business with the "English" while still being acceptable to the Amish.

    That isn't exactly fundamentalist...if you are willing to bend your rules as the world adapts. Well those car things, we need them. Electricity, well seems like that would be ideal. Cell phones, can't do business without them (just none of the grubby stuff from the internet allowed).
    A friend was housesitting at the London Mennonite Centre while the staff were all away on a retreat. He invited me over for a pizza as I'm not far away. I walk up the street, find the right building, walk up the path... on to the porch...

    But just as I was about to ring the doorbell, I heard a loud creaking noise behind me. I turned around and I saw a tree slowly fall over until it was blocking the road, lying at a perfect 90 degrees to the street. It landed softly on a car opposite.

    It was a sunny summer's day. No storm or anything. Just a tree neatly toppling at that moment. I took this to be a sign from God! Although I can't decide whether God was telling me to join the Mennonites or stay away from Mennonites...
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,211

    Selebian said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Sean_F said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    The BBC headline on the Dutch election slightly overdoes it:

    Dutch election: Anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders wins dramatic victory

    The 'win' involves winning 37 seats out of 150.

    In Dutch terms that's a lot of seats, given the PR voting system where 0.67% wins you a seat parliament.
    Three quarters of those who voted voted for a different party. In a PR/many party system people are voting with a view to the total picture. Just as in the UK in the next election loads of people will vote Labour in some areas and LD in others in order to vote for the centrist option.

    37 seats out of 150 is a lot in a PR system if, and only if, you have a good number of allies. If you don't, it is not a great result. As the Tories may find out in 2024 if they were to win as many as 300 seats out of 650.
    Overall, it looks like the centre right/right have 97 seats out of 150, with six more going to Christian fundamentalists. That’s a gigantic defeat for the left.

    Dutch Christian fundamentalists sound like a barrel of laughs...
    The Netherlands (has been) a strange mix of liberals and religious fundamentalists.

    (I don't mean fundamentalists to be derogatory there, trying to find a better term - but there are some very religious/conservative areas - maybe conservatives is a better term. I have a close friend from a very religious area/family who is very much in the liberal camp now.)
    Dutch liberalism is driven partly by these strong religious beliefs. It's liberalism so you don't interfere with my religion rather than the stereotype of all the Dutch being massively socially liberal.
    Yes, I think that's fair. It surprised me the first time I visited my friend's family (to stay for a while and outside the big cities) though.
  • Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Energy bills in Great Britain to rise by 5% from January as cap hits £1,928
    Ofgem increases maximum price suppliers can charge for a typical household’s annual gas and electricity use

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/nov/23/energy-bills-great-britain-rise-january-price-cap-ofgem

    There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.

    The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
    How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
    My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.

    Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.

    I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.

    Not looking forward to this renewal.
    Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
    Bugger.

    I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.

    May have to reduce the footwear budget.
    Truly the end of days.
    The cost of living crisis is real.
    For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
    Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,920
    edited November 2023
    Sandpit said:

    A good analysis of what was happening at Binance.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=De4QjH9fpgo

    Internal communications show that they were told to move US users to a regulated US entity, but chose not to and obsfucate instead, that they were aware their platform was being used for money laundering and failed to close accounts, including a known Russian darknet marketplace called Hydra, and encouraging users they did have to kick off to simply open another account.

    In addition, they’ve never completed a full audit, and the CEO was evasive earlier this year when asked if they could afford the fine and remain solvent. The fine under discussion at the time, was half the $4.3bn fine that was actually handed down by the judge.

    Coffeezilla is top notch YouTuber.

    The only downside for him is he can't take any paid promotion, because that would screw his USP. He could be making millions out of that channel, but I presume its a fraction of that from the YouTube ad revenue.
  • Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Energy bills in Great Britain to rise by 5% from January as cap hits £1,928
    Ofgem increases maximum price suppliers can charge for a typical household’s annual gas and electricity use

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/nov/23/energy-bills-great-britain-rise-january-price-cap-ofgem

    There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.

    The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
    How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
    My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.

    Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.

    I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.

    Not looking forward to this renewal.
    Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
    Bugger.

    I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.

    May have to reduce the footwear budget.
    Truly the end of days.
    The cost of living crisis is real.
    For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
    The struggle is real.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,920
    edited November 2023
    WhatsApp messages show teachers mocking vulnerable pupils

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-67490215

    Is it just me or does this combing over WhatsApp messages again seem OTT. Also what they were saying, a kid is a little shit. Nooooooo surely not, kids can be disruptive wankers, even if he has a disability, they can still be a shit. And that the parents are a pain in the ass.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,530

    WhatsApp messages show teachers mocking vulnerable pupils

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-67490215

    Is it just me or does this combing over WhatsApp messages again seem OTT. Also what they were saying, a kid is a little shit. Nooooooo surely not, kids can be disruptive wankers, even if he has a disability, they can still be a shit. And that the parents are a pain in the ass.

    I assume they’ll be bugging the teachers lounge next?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,920
    edited November 2023
    RobD said:

    WhatsApp messages show teachers mocking vulnerable pupils

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-67490215

    Is it just me or does this combing over WhatsApp messages again seem OTT. Also what they were saying, a kid is a little shit. Nooooooo surely not, kids can be disruptive wankers, even if he has a disability, they can still be a shit. And that the parents are a pain in the ass.

    I assume they’ll be bugging the teachers lounge next?
    It is rather Orwellian. Of course teachers talk about pupils and not always in glowing terms. They have to put up with the little f##kers for 8hrs a day.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 47,727
    RobD said:

    WhatsApp messages show teachers mocking vulnerable pupils

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-67490215

    Is it just me or does this combing over WhatsApp messages again seem OTT. Also what they were saying, a kid is a little shit. Nooooooo surely not, kids can be disruptive wankers, even if he has a disability, they can still be a shit. And that the parents are a pain in the ass.

    I assume they’ll be bugging the teachers lounge next?
    Make the classroom display screen things telescreens? That way OFSTED can break safeguarding rules from the office....
  • A Tory campaign manager credited with masterminding the 2019 landslide election win will return to the party’s headquarters full-time on Jan 1 amid speculation of an earlier than expected general election.

    Isaac Levido, an Australian political strategist and a protégé of the former aide Sir Lynton Crosby, is currently working in 10 Downing Street but will rejoin Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ) at the beginning of next year.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,550
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Energy bills in Great Britain to rise by 5% from January as cap hits £1,928
    Ofgem increases maximum price suppliers can charge for a typical household’s annual gas and electricity use

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/nov/23/energy-bills-great-britain-rise-january-price-cap-ofgem

    There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.

    The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
    How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
    My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.

    Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.

    I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.

    Not looking forward to this renewal.
    Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
    Both I....me did not enjoy anything...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,841
    edited November 2023
    JamesF said:

    Dear PB regulars - is there anyone here who has been talking about the Dutch election? Is there an old thread I should trawl? Has it had much attention on this site?

    Good day @JamesF. In any given election somebody will take an interest and post data. Such reliables include, but are not limited to @stodge, @Cicero, @Tissue_Price, @slade etc. In this specific case [Netherlands2023] the reliable provider was @DoubleCarpet . If you look thru his comments[2] starting from this one[1] you should get a good overview

    Notes
    [1] https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4613024#Comment_4613024
    [2] https://vf.politicalbetting.com/profile/comments/DoubleCarpet
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 47,727

    RobD said:

    WhatsApp messages show teachers mocking vulnerable pupils

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-67490215

    Is it just me or does this combing over WhatsApp messages again seem OTT. Also what they were saying, a kid is a little shit. Nooooooo surely not, kids can be disruptive wankers, even if he has a disability, they can still be a shit. And that the parents are a pain in the ass.

    I assume they’ll be bugging the teachers lounge next?
    It is rather Orwellian. Of course teachers talk about pupils and not always in glowing terms. They have to put up with the little f##kers for 8hrs a day.
    Letting off steam…

    It has been noted, in a number of contexts, that a de-stressing environment, where it is completely confidential, is a vital requirement. Otherwise people break. Badly.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 52,822

    Sandpit said:

    A good analysis of what was happening at Binance.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=De4QjH9fpgo

    Internal communications show that they were told to move US users to a regulated US entity, but chose not to and obsfucate instead, that they were aware their platform was being used for money laundering and failed to close accounts, including a known Russian darknet marketplace called Hydra, and encouraging users they did have to kick off to simply open another account.

    In addition, they’ve never completed a full audit, and the CEO was evasive earlier this year when asked if they could afford the fine and remain solvent. The fine under discussion at the time, was half the $4.3bn fine that was actually handed down by the judge.

    Coffeezilla is top notch YouTuber.

    The only downside for him is he can't take any paid promotion, because that would screw his USP. He could be making millions out of that channel, but I presume its a fraction of that from the YouTube ad revenue.
    Yes, proper investigative journalism is really difficult as an independent. That said, he’s getting 10m views a month now, so possibly $15-20k in revenue from Youtube (maybe more if he can get all the crypto scams advertising against his content!).

    The road up to this point must have been difficult though, no chance to employ researchers or editors, operating totally as a one-man band and hoping not to get his arse sued.
  • A Tory campaign manager credited with masterminding the 2019 landslide election win will return to the party’s headquarters full-time on Jan 1 amid speculation of an earlier than expected general election.

    Isaac Levido, an Australian political strategist and a protégé of the former aide Sir Lynton Crosby, is currently working in 10 Downing Street but will rejoin Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ) at the beginning of next year.

    Plan A very clearly is Thursday 2nd May.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,920
    edited November 2023
    F##king grow a pair.....

    McLean had to 'paper over the cracks' between academics and civil servants

    Prof Dame Angela McLean said there were times she had to “paper over the cracks” when difficulties arose between academics and civil servants.

    Asked if differences in approach caused any difficulties during the pandemic, the Government’s chief scientific adviser said: “There were several occasions when I had to paper over the cracks, I would say.

    “It was mostly that an academic on SPI-M-O (Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational) had told a civil servant why they were wrong in some way that the civil servant felt was rude.”

    “I was in contact with people saying ‘I’m sorry, that was upsetting for you. They didn’t mean to be rude to you personally. What they were talking about was your work’,” Dame Angela said.

    -----

    No wonder they thought Dominic Raab looking at them funny was bullying.

    Also again we are back on the nonsense of micro-analysing people being butthurt. This person said a hurty word, that person didn't like it, I had to act to calm it down....this has nothing to do with how do we plan to tackle a pandemic in the future.

    It so obvious where the lawyers want to take this, institutional toxic culture, need route and branch reform of culture.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 52,822

    RobD said:

    WhatsApp messages show teachers mocking vulnerable pupils

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-67490215

    Is it just me or does this combing over WhatsApp messages again seem OTT. Also what they were saying, a kid is a little shit. Nooooooo surely not, kids can be disruptive wankers, even if he has a disability, they can still be a shit. And that the parents are a pain in the ass.

    I assume they’ll be bugging the teachers lounge next?
    It is rather Orwellian. Of course teachers talk about pupils and not always in glowing terms. They have to put up with the little f##kers for 8hrs a day.
    Letting off steam…

    It has been noted, in a number of contexts, that a de-stressing environment, where it is completely confidential, is a vital requirement. Otherwise people break. Badly.
    Like 10 Downing St when a pandemic hit?

    How many people involved at the time, thought that their messages would be pored over in public and deconstructed by layers three years later, with the added benefit of perfect hindsight?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,211
    RobD said:

    WhatsApp messages show teachers mocking vulnerable pupils

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-67490215

    Is it just me or does this combing over WhatsApp messages again seem OTT. Also what they were saying, a kid is a little shit. Nooooooo surely not, kids can be disruptive wankers, even if he has a disability, they can still be a shit. And that the parents are a pain in the ass.

    I assume they’ll be bugging the teachers lounge next?
    "teachers lounge"? Did you go to a fancy* school, Rob? Ours only had a staff room :disappointed:

    *not that fancy, otherwise it would have been "teachers' lounge" :tongue:
  • A Tory campaign manager credited with masterminding the 2019 landslide election win will return to the party’s headquarters full-time on Jan 1 amid speculation of an earlier than expected general election.

    Isaac Levido, an Australian political strategist and a protégé of the former aide Sir Lynton Crosby, is currently working in 10 Downing Street but will rejoin Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ) at the beginning of next year.

    Plan A very clearly is Thursday 2nd May.
    Oh I do hope so.

    5 months less than expected of this turgid government would be lovely.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    A good analysis of what was happening at Binance.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=De4QjH9fpgo

    Internal communications show that they were told to move US users to a regulated US entity, but chose not to and obsfucate instead, that they were aware their platform was being used for money laundering and failed to close accounts, including a known Russian darknet marketplace called Hydra, and encouraging users they did have to kick off to simply open another account.

    In addition, they’ve never completed a full audit, and the CEO was evasive earlier this year when asked if they could afford the fine and remain solvent. The fine under discussion at the time, was half the $4.3bn fine that was actually handed down by the judge.

    Coffeezilla is top notch YouTuber.

    The only downside for him is he can't take any paid promotion, because that would screw his USP. He could be making millions out of that channel, but I presume its a fraction of that from the YouTube ad revenue.
    Yes, proper investigative journalism is really difficult as an independent. That said, he’s getting 10m views a month now, so possibly $15-20k in revenue from Youtube (maybe more if he can get all the crypto scams advertising against his content!).

    The road up to this point must have been difficult though, no chance to employ researchers or editors, operating totally as a one-man band and hoping not to get his arse sued.
    Probably a lot more. Aiui financial advertising pays most, along with big-ticket items like cars.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 52,822
    edited November 2023

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Energy bills in Great Britain to rise by 5% from January as cap hits £1,928
    Ofgem increases maximum price suppliers can charge for a typical household’s annual gas and electricity use

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/nov/23/energy-bills-great-britain-rise-january-price-cap-ofgem

    There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.

    The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
    How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
    My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.

    Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.

    I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.

    Not looking forward to this renewal.
    Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
    Bugger.

    I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.

    May have to reduce the footwear budget.
    Truly the end of days.
    The cost of living crisis is real.
    For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
    Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
    Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?

    That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 47,727

    F##king grow a pair.....

    McLean had to 'paper over the cracks' between academics and civil servants

    Prof Dame Angela McLean said there were times she had to “paper over the cracks” when difficulties arose between academics and civil servants.

    Asked if differences in approach caused any difficulties during the pandemic, the Government’s chief scientific adviser said: “There were several occasions when I had to paper over the cracks, I would say.

    “It was mostly that an academic on SPI-M-O (Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational) had told a civil servant why they were wrong in some way that the civil servant felt was rude.”

    “I was in contact with people saying ‘I’m sorry, that was upsetting for you. They didn’t mean to be rude to you personally. What they were talking about was your work’,” Dame Angela said.

    -----

    No wonder they thought Dominic Raab looking at them funny was bullying.

    Some people seem to subscribe to the idea that telling them they did something wrong is bad, because it hurts their feelings.

    Related is the idea that telling some that what they think is true, isn't. Because it hurts their feelings.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,708
    PVV, VVD, BBB, and FVD have 72 seats between them, compared to 47, for all the left wing parties. Even if the two Christian Democratic parties sided with all of the parties of the left, they'd be short of a majority.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,920
    edited November 2023

    F##king grow a pair.....

    McLean had to 'paper over the cracks' between academics and civil servants

    Prof Dame Angela McLean said there were times she had to “paper over the cracks” when difficulties arose between academics and civil servants.

    Asked if differences in approach caused any difficulties during the pandemic, the Government’s chief scientific adviser said: “There were several occasions when I had to paper over the cracks, I would say.

    “It was mostly that an academic on SPI-M-O (Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational) had told a civil servant why they were wrong in some way that the civil servant felt was rude.”

    “I was in contact with people saying ‘I’m sorry, that was upsetting for you. They didn’t mean to be rude to you personally. What they were talking about was your work’,” Dame Angela said.

    -----

    No wonder they thought Dominic Raab looking at them funny was bullying.

    Some people seem to subscribe to the idea that telling them they did something wrong is bad, because it hurts their feelings.

    Related is the idea that telling some that what they think is true, isn't. Because it hurts their feelings.
    Also, this was a fast moving evolving highly stressful scenario. Nobody really knew the truth, there was no established practice. Everybody was trying to make it up as they went along as best they could.

    But the man from the university told me I was wrong....sobs.....but my line manager told me last week my work was fine....i don't understand.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 67,874

    A Tory campaign manager credited with masterminding the 2019 landslide election win will return to the party’s headquarters full-time on Jan 1 amid speculation of an earlier than expected general election.

    Isaac Levido, an Australian political strategist and a protégé of the former aide Sir Lynton Crosby, is currently working in 10 Downing Street but will rejoin Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ) at the beginning of next year.

    I thought the Tories didn't like immigrants ?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,211

    A Tory campaign manager credited with masterminding the 2019 landslide election win will return to the party’s headquarters full-time on Jan 1 amid speculation of an earlier than expected general election.

    Isaac Levido, an Australian political strategist and a protégé of the former aide Sir Lynton Crosby, is currently working in 10 Downing Street but will rejoin Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ) at the beginning of next year.

    Plan A very clearly is Thursday 2nd May.
    Oh I do hope so.

    5 months less than expected of this turgid government would be lovely.
    I disagree. I need both more time and more inflation to reduce the real value of my losses laying a Labour majority :disappointed: Or more time for a black swan, like the Cleverly comment turning out to have actually been Starmer :lol:

    (Seemed like an excellent idea at the time)
  • Nigelb said:

    A Tory campaign manager credited with masterminding the 2019 landslide election win will return to the party’s headquarters full-time on Jan 1 amid speculation of an earlier than expected general election.

    Isaac Levido, an Australian political strategist and a protégé of the former aide Sir Lynton Crosby, is currently working in 10 Downing Street but will rejoin Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ) at the beginning of next year.

    I thought the Tories didn't like immigrants ?
    Looking at todays immigration figures, what gave you that idea?
  • A Tory campaign manager credited with masterminding the 2019 landslide election win will return to the party’s headquarters full-time on Jan 1 amid speculation of an earlier than expected general election.

    Isaac Levido, an Australian political strategist and a protégé of the former aide Sir Lynton Crosby, is currently working in 10 Downing Street but will rejoin Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ) at the beginning of next year.

    Can we read much into that? We already know the election will be in 2024 so having your top man in place early might not tell us very much. It is true Levido was only in place five months before the last election but then Boris only became Prime Minister at the end of July, and he hired Levido almost immediately.

    Although fwiw, Jan 2025 for me.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,708

    WhatsApp messages show teachers mocking vulnerable pupils

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-67490215

    Is it just me or does this combing over WhatsApp messages again seem OTT. Also what they were saying, a kid is a little shit. Nooooooo surely not, kids can be disruptive wankers, even if he has a disability, they can still be a shit. And that the parents are a pain in the ass.

    Actually, the local authority made the right decision.

    Of course teachers will say uncomplimentary things about parents and pupils in private, because some parents and pupils are arseholes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,920
    edited November 2023

    A Tory campaign manager credited with masterminding the 2019 landslide election win will return to the party’s headquarters full-time on Jan 1 amid speculation of an earlier than expected general election.

    Isaac Levido, an Australian political strategist and a protégé of the former aide Sir Lynton Crosby, is currently working in 10 Downing Street but will rejoin Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ) at the beginning of next year.

    Can we read much into that? We already know the election will be in 2024 so having your top man in place early might not tell us very much. It is true Levido was only in place five months before the last election but then Boris only became Prime Minister at the end of July, and he hired Levido almost immediately.

    Although fwiw, Jan 2025 for me.
    I think it is more interesting the old gang is getting back together. Lynton Crosby approach again.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,211


    Although fwiw, Jan 2025 for me.

    Backers of a spring election take note? :wink:
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,442
    edited November 2023

    F##king grow a pair.....

    McLean had to 'paper over the cracks' between academics and civil servants

    Prof Dame Angela McLean said there were times she had to “paper over the cracks” when difficulties arose between academics and civil servants.

    Asked if differences in approach caused any difficulties during the pandemic, the Government’s chief scientific adviser said: “There were several occasions when I had to paper over the cracks, I would say.

    “It was mostly that an academic on SPI-M-O (Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational) had told a civil servant why they were wrong in some way that the civil servant felt was rude.”

    “I was in contact with people saying ‘I’m sorry, that was upsetting for you. They didn’t mean to be rude to you personally. What they were talking about was your work’,” Dame Angela said.

    -----

    No wonder they thought Dominic Raab looking at them funny was bullying.

    Some people seem to subscribe to the idea that telling them they did something wrong is bad, because it hurts their feelings.

    Related is the idea that telling some that what they think is true, isn't. Because it hurts their feelings.
    This comes from this weird “empowerment” style culture we seem to have created for ourselves, (whose intentions by the way I generally think are good). I agree with the basic thrust that thinking positively about yourself and your contribution is a really good trait to have. The bit that people miss is that feedback isn’t a bad thing, and negative feedback is not a setback but a learning process. Unfortunately a lot of people seem to stop at the “I should feel good about everything I do” message and leave it there.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,837

    F##king grow a pair.....

    McLean had to 'paper over the cracks' between academics and civil servants

    Prof Dame Angela McLean said there were times she had to “paper over the cracks” when difficulties arose between academics and civil servants.

    Asked if differences in approach caused any difficulties during the pandemic, the Government’s chief scientific adviser said: “There were several occasions when I had to paper over the cracks, I would say.

    “It was mostly that an academic on SPI-M-O (Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational) had told a civil servant why they were wrong in some way that the civil servant felt was rude.”

    “I was in contact with people saying ‘I’m sorry, that was upsetting for you. They didn’t mean to be rude to you personally. What they were talking about was your work’,” Dame Angela said.

    -----

    No wonder they thought Dominic Raab looking at them funny was bullying.

    Some people seem to subscribe to the idea that telling them they did something wrong is bad, because it hurts their feelings.

    Related is the idea that telling some that what they think is true, isn't. Because it hurts their feelings.
    Have you met academics? We can be very rude...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,841
    Ghedebrav said:

    isam said:

    Amazing to think that in 2010 Cameron became PM on a pledge to get immigration down to the tens of thousands!

    A stupid pledge it was too. International movement is a fact of our world, and the problems it causes - to the migrants, to their destinations and to the places they leave - require international cooperation, compromise and other boring stuff that won't win votes.
    In the 2010s membership of the EU prevent migrant control
    In the 2020s the requirement to generate growth and handle the demographic imbalance prevent migrant control

    In 2010 Cameron, being rather silly, was simply mistaken. But in 2023 they are simply lying. You cannot truthfully claim to be controlling inward migration if the numbers are 500K-1000K per year. And yet they do. It looks good to the voters. It's a lie, but who cares about that.
  • I can definitely pick out 'Sh*tol' in the audio. The idea that the utterance was 'Sh*t MP' is preposterous spin. Hodges should be ashamed of himself for passing that on as fact.
  • .
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Energy bills in Great Britain to rise by 5% from January as cap hits £1,928
    Ofgem increases maximum price suppliers can charge for a typical household’s annual gas and electricity use

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/nov/23/energy-bills-great-britain-rise-january-price-cap-ofgem

    There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.

    The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
    How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
    My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.

    Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.

    I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.

    Not looking forward to this renewal.
    Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
    Bugger.

    I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.

    May have to reduce the footwear budget.
    Truly the end of days.
    The cost of living crisis is real.
    For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
    Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
    Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?

    That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
    If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on.
    We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,920
    edited November 2023
    Sean_F said:

    WhatsApp messages show teachers mocking vulnerable pupils

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-67490215

    Is it just me or does this combing over WhatsApp messages again seem OTT. Also what they were saying, a kid is a little shit. Nooooooo surely not, kids can be disruptive wankers, even if he has a disability, they can still be a shit. And that the parents are a pain in the ass.

    Actually, the local authority made the right decision.

    Of course teachers will say uncomplimentary things about parents and pupils in private, because some parents and pupils are arseholes.
    Absolutely. But the BBC decided to run it this story under the guise of its a cover up.

    "The Aberdeenshire case comes as concerns have been raised about that some misconduct allegations against teachers in Scotland are not being properly investigated."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-61467612

    I actually think the BBC reporter might think this is a big scoop to publish the messages to prove there was something bad here. To me, it makes the teachers look better than the original "scary" report of these teachers, they were sending abusive messages..

    Oh so they called a them a little shit..Noooooo
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,713

    RobD said:

    WhatsApp messages show teachers mocking vulnerable pupils

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-67490215

    Is it just me or does this combing over WhatsApp messages again seem OTT. Also what they were saying, a kid is a little shit. Nooooooo surely not, kids can be disruptive wankers, even if he has a disability, they can still be a shit. And that the parents are a pain in the ass.

    I assume they’ll be bugging the teachers lounge next?
    It is rather Orwellian. Of course teachers talk about pupils and not always in glowing terms. They have to put up with the little f##kers for 8hrs a day.
    Letting off steam…

    It has been noted, in a number of contexts, that a de-stressing environment, where it is completely confidential, is a vital requirement. Otherwise people break. Badly.
    Also applies to the police in my opinion - too many are getting into trouble for posting WhatsApps to colleagues.
  • Selebian said:


    Although fwiw, Jan 2025 for me.

    Backers of a spring election take note? :wink:
    In the words of whichever politician said it first, if you go long, you can only be wrong once. That said, I do genuinely believe there are solid grounds for Rishi to hang on in the hope something turns up, and that Christmas disrupting the campaign will help the blue team.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,211

    F##king grow a pair.....

    McLean had to 'paper over the cracks' between academics and civil servants

    Prof Dame Angela McLean said there were times she had to “paper over the cracks” when difficulties arose between academics and civil servants.

    Asked if differences in approach caused any difficulties during the pandemic, the Government’s chief scientific adviser said: “There were several occasions when I had to paper over the cracks, I would say.

    “It was mostly that an academic on SPI-M-O (Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational) had told a civil servant why they were wrong in some way that the civil servant felt was rude.”

    “I was in contact with people saying ‘I’m sorry, that was upsetting for you. They didn’t mean to be rude to you personally. What they were talking about was your work’,” Dame Angela said.

    -----

    No wonder they thought Dominic Raab looking at them funny was bullying.

    Some people seem to subscribe to the idea that telling them they did something wrong is bad, because it hurts their feelings.

    Related is the idea that telling some that what they think is true, isn't. Because it hurts their feelings.
    Also, this was a fast moving evolving highly stressful scenario. Nobody really knew the truth, there was no established practice. Everybody was trying to make it up as they went along as best they could.

    But the man from the university told me I was wrong....sobs.....but my line manager told me last week my work was fine....i don't understand.....
    One of the valuable lessons from working in academia is learning how to cope with being told you're wrong on a regular basis.

    And learning both how to accept that when you are wrong and argue it when you are not.
  • Sean_F said:

    PVV, VVD, BBB, and FVD have 72 seats between them, compared to 47, for all the left wing parties. Even if the two Christian Democratic parties sided with all of the parties of the left, they'd be short of a majority.

    Looks well hung, to me.

    Either a minority government or another election is my guess. Possibility that there is a rainbow coalition of anti-PVV parties that manage to cobble something together for a short while, but doesn’t seem sustainable and surely can’t last longer than 12-24 months.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,920
    edited November 2023

    F##king grow a pair.....

    McLean had to 'paper over the cracks' between academics and civil servants

    Prof Dame Angela McLean said there were times she had to “paper over the cracks” when difficulties arose between academics and civil servants.

    Asked if differences in approach caused any difficulties during the pandemic, the Government’s chief scientific adviser said: “There were several occasions when I had to paper over the cracks, I would say.

    “It was mostly that an academic on SPI-M-O (Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational) had told a civil servant why they were wrong in some way that the civil servant felt was rude.”

    “I was in contact with people saying ‘I’m sorry, that was upsetting for you. They didn’t mean to be rude to you personally. What they were talking about was your work’,” Dame Angela said.

    -----

    No wonder they thought Dominic Raab looking at them funny was bullying.

    Some people seem to subscribe to the idea that telling them they did something wrong is bad, because it hurts their feelings.

    Related is the idea that telling some that what they think is true, isn't. Because it hurts their feelings.
    Have you met academics? We can be very rude...
    My PhD supervisor was one of the rudest people I have ever met. But a brilliant mind.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,920
    edited November 2023
    Selebian said:

    F##king grow a pair.....

    McLean had to 'paper over the cracks' between academics and civil servants

    Prof Dame Angela McLean said there were times she had to “paper over the cracks” when difficulties arose between academics and civil servants.

    Asked if differences in approach caused any difficulties during the pandemic, the Government’s chief scientific adviser said: “There were several occasions when I had to paper over the cracks, I would say.

    “It was mostly that an academic on SPI-M-O (Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational) had told a civil servant why they were wrong in some way that the civil servant felt was rude.”

    “I was in contact with people saying ‘I’m sorry, that was upsetting for you. They didn’t mean to be rude to you personally. What they were talking about was your work’,” Dame Angela said.

    -----

    No wonder they thought Dominic Raab looking at them funny was bullying.

    Some people seem to subscribe to the idea that telling them they did something wrong is bad, because it hurts their feelings.

    Related is the idea that telling some that what they think is true, isn't. Because it hurts their feelings.
    Also, this was a fast moving evolving highly stressful scenario. Nobody really knew the truth, there was no established practice. Everybody was trying to make it up as they went along as best they could.

    But the man from the university told me I was wrong....sobs.....but my line manager told me last week my work was fine....i don't understand.....
    One of the valuable lessons from working in academia is learning how to cope with being told you're wrong on a regular basis.

    And learning both how to accept that when you are wrong and argue it when you are not.
    It is a core component of a PhD....yes you have to have the novel work, which you ultimately have to be able to defend, but also acknowledge the flaws in it (and your peers are going to tell you all about those).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,920
    edited November 2023

    .

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Energy bills in Great Britain to rise by 5% from January as cap hits £1,928
    Ofgem increases maximum price suppliers can charge for a typical household’s annual gas and electricity use

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/nov/23/energy-bills-great-britain-rise-january-price-cap-ofgem

    There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.

    The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
    How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
    My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.

    Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.

    I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.

    Not looking forward to this renewal.
    Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
    Bugger.

    I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.

    May have to reduce the footwear budget.
    Truly the end of days.
    The cost of living crisis is real.
    For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
    Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
    Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?

    That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
    If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on.
    We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
    Visit any high street and any delusion of the economy going great guns will be put back in check.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 52,822
    edited November 2023

    .

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Energy bills in Great Britain to rise by 5% from January as cap hits £1,928
    Ofgem increases maximum price suppliers can charge for a typical household’s annual gas and electricity use

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/nov/23/energy-bills-great-britain-rise-january-price-cap-ofgem

    There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.

    The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
    How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
    My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.

    Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.

    I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.

    Not looking forward to this renewal.
    Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
    Bugger.

    I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.

    May have to reduce the footwear budget.
    Truly the end of days.
    The cost of living crisis is real.
    For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
    Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
    Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?

    That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
    If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on.
    We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
    TSE is just trolling, but the wider issue is that the economic statistics are not being reflected in most people’s lives.

    Inflation has been very high for two years now, pay rises haven’t kept up, and the specific inflation on those on low or middle incomes is much higher, them spending more money on bills and food.

    Ronald Reagan got it right, and Starmer would do well to copy him next year. Do you feel better off than you did five years ago?

    If they want to copy their recent style of attack ad - “Do you feel better off than you did five years ago? Rishi Sunak does.”
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,920
    edited November 2023
    Sandpit said:

    .

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Energy bills in Great Britain to rise by 5% from January as cap hits £1,928
    Ofgem increases maximum price suppliers can charge for a typical household’s annual gas and electricity use

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/nov/23/energy-bills-great-britain-rise-january-price-cap-ofgem

    There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.

    The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
    How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
    My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.

    Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.

    I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.

    Not looking forward to this renewal.
    Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
    Bugger.

    I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.

    May have to reduce the footwear budget.
    Truly the end of days.
    The cost of living crisis is real.
    For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
    Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
    Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?

    That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
    If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on.
    We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
    TSE is just trolling, but the wider issue is that the economic statistics are not being reflected in most people’s lives.

    Inflation has been very high for two years now, pay rises haven’t kept up, and the specific inflation on those on low or middle incomes is much higher, them spending more money on bills and food.

    Ronald Reagan got it right, and Starmer would do well to copy him next year. Do you feel better off than you did five years ago?

    If they want to copy their recent style of attack ad - “Do you feel better off than you did five years ago? Rishi Sunak does.
    That was Rachael Reeves core line yesterday.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,082
    Leon said:

    I can happily report that Phnom Penh Central market is as brilliantly chaotic and intense as ever. Hasn’t changed in 20 years. So far I have bought 50 tablets of Alprazolam 0.5mg and two absurdly underpriced bottles of Pomerol

    I have declined the sheep’s brain tho last night I did eat congealed pig’s blood. Its fairly disgusting

    Now to see if the stall where I bought a dried frog, two decades ago, still exists



    I love Phnom Penh. I love Cambodia

    A predictable question from me - do they still take cash or is it all electronic payments?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,837
    Sandpit said:

    .

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Energy bills in Great Britain to rise by 5% from January as cap hits £1,928
    Ofgem increases maximum price suppliers can charge for a typical household’s annual gas and electricity use

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/nov/23/energy-bills-great-britain-rise-january-price-cap-ofgem

    There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.

    The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
    How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
    My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.

    Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.

    I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.

    Not looking forward to this renewal.
    Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
    Bugger.

    I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.

    May have to reduce the footwear budget.
    Truly the end of days.
    The cost of living crisis is real.
    For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
    Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
    Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?

    That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
    If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on.
    We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
    TSE is just trolling, but the wider issue is that the economic statistics are not being reflected in most people’s lives.

    Inflation has been very high for two years now, pay rises haven’t kept up, and the specific inflation on those on low or middle incomes is much higher, them spending more money on bills and food.

    Ronald Reagan got it right, and Starmer would do well to copy him next year. Do you feel better off than you did five years ago?

    If they want to copy their recent style of attack ad - “Do you feel better off than you did five years ago? Rishi Sunak does.”
    Surely: "Do you feel better off than you did thirteen years ago?"
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,442
    edited November 2023
    Sandpit said:

    .

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Energy bills in Great Britain to rise by 5% from January as cap hits £1,928
    Ofgem increases maximum price suppliers can charge for a typical household’s annual gas and electricity use

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/nov/23/energy-bills-great-britain-rise-january-price-cap-ofgem

    There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.

    The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
    How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
    My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.

    Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.

    I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.

    Not looking forward to this renewal.
    Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
    Bugger.

    I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.

    May have to reduce the footwear budget.
    Truly the end of days.
    The cost of living crisis is real.
    For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
    Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
    Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?

    That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
    If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on.
    We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
    TSE is just trolling, but the wider issue is that the economic statistics are not being reflected in most people’s lives.

    Inflation has been very high for two years now, pay rises haven’t kept up, and the specific inflation on those on low or middle incomes is much higher, them spending more money on bills and food.

    Ronald Reagan got it right, and Starmer would do well to copy him next year. Do you feel better off than you did five years ago?

    If they want to copy their recent style of attack ad - “Do you feel better off than you did five years ago? Rishi Sunak does.”
    They shouldn’t even bring Sunak into it. Going after politicians’ personal wealth has never been a great look for Labour. Everyone knows that the Tories have been crap, there’s no need to turn it into an ad hominem.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 40,939
    Leon said:

    670,000

    In the next 5-10 years a Geert Wilders character will win power in the UK

    I doubt it but we shouldn't be complacent. The risk is certainly there. The 'don't elect a malignant clown with unfeasible hair as PM' barrier that served us so well for centuries was swept away in 2019.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 52,822
    edited November 2023

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Energy bills in Great Britain to rise by 5% from January as cap hits £1,928
    Ofgem increases maximum price suppliers can charge for a typical household’s annual gas and electricity use

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/nov/23/energy-bills-great-britain-rise-january-price-cap-ofgem

    There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.

    The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
    How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
    My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.

    Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.

    I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.

    Not looking forward to this renewal.
    Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
    Bugger.

    I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.

    May have to reduce the footwear budget.
    Truly the end of days.
    The cost of living crisis is real.
    For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
    Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
    Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?

    That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
    If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on.
    We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
    TSE is just trolling, but the wider issue is that the economic statistics are not being reflected in most people’s lives.

    Inflation has been very high for two years now, pay rises haven’t kept up, and the specific inflation on those on low or middle incomes is much higher, them spending more money on bills and food.

    Ronald Reagan got it right, and Starmer would do well to copy him next year. Do you feel better off than you did five years ago?

    If they want to copy their recent style of attack ad - “Do you feel better off than you did five years ago? Rishi Sunak does.”
    They shouldn’t even bring Sunak into it. Going after politicians’ personal wealth has never been a great look for Labour. Everyone knows that the Tories have been crap, there’s no need to turn it into an ad hominem.
    Oh I agree entirely, but that’s the route Labour have decided to take recently.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,708
    The full Dutch result was:

    Right:

    PVV 37
    Forum for Democracy 3
    JA21 1

    41 seats

    Centre Right:

    VVD 24
    BBB 7

    31 seats.

    Christian Democratic:

    New Social Contract 20
    CDA 5

    25 seats.

    Left:

    GL–PvdA 25
    D 66 9
    Socialist Party 5
    DENK 3
    Volt Netherlands 2
    Party for the Animals 3

    47 seats

    Christian Fundamentalists

    Reformed Political Party 3
    Christian Union 3

    6 seats.

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,837
    viewcode said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    isam said:

    Amazing to think that in 2010 Cameron became PM on a pledge to get immigration down to the tens of thousands!

    A stupid pledge it was too. International movement is a fact of our world, and the problems it causes - to the migrants, to their destinations and to the places they leave - require international cooperation, compromise and other boring stuff that won't win votes.
    In the 2010s membership of the EU prevent migrant control
    In the 2020s the requirement to generate growth and handle the demographic imbalance prevent migrant control

    In 2010 Cameron, being rather silly, was simply mistaken. But in 2023 they are simply lying. You cannot truthfully claim to be controlling inward migration if the numbers are 500K-1000K per year. And yet they do. It looks good to the voters. It's a lie, but who cares about that.
    I think, in the 2010s and 2000s, it was also the requirement to generate growth and handle the demographic imbalance that prevented migrant control. It was never really about the EU.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,082
    edited November 2023
    JamesF said:

    Dear PB regulars - is there anyone here who has been talking about the Dutch election? Is there an old thread I should trawl? Has it had much attention on this site?

    A few of us were talking about it last night on the previous thread, with links to the official results page, live election programme. etc.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,403
    Selebian said:

    F##king grow a pair.....

    McLean had to 'paper over the cracks' between academics and civil servants

    Prof Dame Angela McLean said there were times she had to “paper over the cracks” when difficulties arose between academics and civil servants.

    Asked if differences in approach caused any difficulties during the pandemic, the Government’s chief scientific adviser said: “There were several occasions when I had to paper over the cracks, I would say.

    “It was mostly that an academic on SPI-M-O (Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational) had told a civil servant why they were wrong in some way that the civil servant felt was rude.”

    “I was in contact with people saying ‘I’m sorry, that was upsetting for you. They didn’t mean to be rude to you personally. What they were talking about was your work’,” Dame Angela said.

    -----

    No wonder they thought Dominic Raab looking at them funny was bullying.

    Some people seem to subscribe to the idea that telling them they did something wrong is bad, because it hurts their feelings.

    Related is the idea that telling some that what they think is true, isn't. Because it hurts their feelings.
    Also, this was a fast moving evolving highly stressful scenario. Nobody really knew the truth, there was no established practice. Everybody was trying to make it up as they went along as best they could.

    But the man from the university told me I was wrong....sobs.....but my line manager told me last week my work was fine....i don't understand.....
    One of the valuable lessons from working in academia is learning how to cope with being told you're wrong on a regular basis.

    And learning both how to accept that when you are wrong and argue it when you are not.
    Hmm, one wonders where the civil servants went,. and what degree they did.

    Even as an undergraduate I was, sometimes emphatically, told when I was wrong - or on occasion not even wrong. Extremely useful.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 52,822
    edited November 2023

    Sandpit said:

    .

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Energy bills in Great Britain to rise by 5% from January as cap hits £1,928
    Ofgem increases maximum price suppliers can charge for a typical household’s annual gas and electricity use

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/nov/23/energy-bills-great-britain-rise-january-price-cap-ofgem

    There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.

    The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
    How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
    My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.

    Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.

    I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.

    Not looking forward to this renewal.
    Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
    Bugger.

    I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.

    May have to reduce the footwear budget.
    Truly the end of days.
    The cost of living crisis is real.
    For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
    Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
    Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?

    That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
    If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on.
    We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
    TSE is just trolling, but the wider issue is that the economic statistics are not being reflected in most people’s lives.

    Inflation has been very high for two years now, pay rises haven’t kept up, and the specific inflation on those on low or middle incomes is much higher, them spending more money on bills and food.

    Ronald Reagan got it right, and Starmer would do well to copy him next year. Do you feel better off than you did five years ago?

    If they want to copy their recent style of attack ad - “Do you feel better off than you did five years ago? Rishi Sunak does.”
    Surely: "Do you feel better off than you did thirteen years ago?"
    Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago. I’m getting paid twice as much now as I was then.

    Narrow the window and narrow the focus. Five years ago, you voted for this lot; has your life got better or worse since then?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,920
    edited November 2023
    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    F##king grow a pair.....

    McLean had to 'paper over the cracks' between academics and civil servants

    Prof Dame Angela McLean said there were times she had to “paper over the cracks” when difficulties arose between academics and civil servants.

    Asked if differences in approach caused any difficulties during the pandemic, the Government’s chief scientific adviser said: “There were several occasions when I had to paper over the cracks, I would say.

    “It was mostly that an academic on SPI-M-O (Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational) had told a civil servant why they were wrong in some way that the civil servant felt was rude.”

    “I was in contact with people saying ‘I’m sorry, that was upsetting for you. They didn’t mean to be rude to you personally. What they were talking about was your work’,” Dame Angela said.

    -----

    No wonder they thought Dominic Raab looking at them funny was bullying.

    Some people seem to subscribe to the idea that telling them they did something wrong is bad, because it hurts their feelings.

    Related is the idea that telling some that what they think is true, isn't. Because it hurts their feelings.
    Also, this was a fast moving evolving highly stressful scenario. Nobody really knew the truth, there was no established practice. Everybody was trying to make it up as they went along as best they could.

    But the man from the university told me I was wrong....sobs.....but my line manager told me last week my work was fine....i don't understand.....
    One of the valuable lessons from working in academia is learning how to cope with being told you're wrong on a regular basis.

    And learning both how to accept that when you are wrong and argue it when you are not.
    Hmm, one wonders where the civil servants went,. and what degree they did.

    Even as an undergraduate I was, sometimes emphatically, told when I was wrong - or on occasion not even wrong. Extremely useful.
    The balance has significantly shifted in academia these days. Now students are treated much more like customers, there is far more placation and much less desire to upset anybody. The students are much more likely to raise complaints when they deem that they have been wronged i.e. which can mean just been told they were wrong.

    I think the directness is now saved more for interactions with other academics. At least that is my observation.
This discussion has been closed.