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Not very big, and not very Cleverly – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,014
edited November 2023 in General
Not very big, and not very Cleverly – politicalbetting.com

I asked the Prime Minister why 34% of children in Stockton North are living in poverty.  The Home Secretary James Cleverly can apparently be heard saying it is a "sh**hole". This comment shames the Home Secretary, the Government and his party and he should apologise. pic.twitter.com/hgmCLBdqCx

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    First?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    Any Conserviative asked about “poverty” should reply that it’s a term now taken completely out of the context of its original meaning in the Western world, deliberately so by campaign groups, that they understand there’s inequality in the country, and that the government is committed to levelling up.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474
    Sandpit said:

    Any Conserviative asked about “poverty” should reply that it’s a term now taken completely out of the context of its original meaning in the Western world, deliberately so by campaign groups, that they understand there’s inequality in the country, and that the government is committed to levelling up.

    The last bit of that is demonstrably untrue.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474
    Does TSE know this exists?

    World's largest sneaker show to land in Seoul next year
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=363651
    Sneaker Con, arguably the world's largest convention show for shoe fanatics, is debuting in Seoul in October 2024.

    Since its founding in New York City in 2009, the event has branded itself as one of the biggest and most influential platforms for exhibiting and trading limited-edition footwear for growing numbers of "sneakerheads" worldwide...

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    TazTaz Posts: 11,119
    Dan Hodges response. It is all a bit like when Ed Balls was supposed to have said "so what" and claimed it was "so weak"
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    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    God forbid a man should call a spade a spade.
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,001
    He was saying boo-urns
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    Sandpit said:

    Any Conserviative asked about “poverty” should reply that it’s a term now taken completely out of the context of its original meaning in the Western world, deliberately so by campaign groups, that they understand there’s inequality in the country, and that the government is committed to levelling up.

    Better than saying "because X is a shithole" or even "because you are a shit MP" (is that really an improvement?), but not much better.

    There are places in the UK where life is pretty rubbish, and this government hasn't really made things better. Lots of reasons for that, some of them insoluble. But the victors of 2016 made a lot of promises and a lot of people aren't seeing any progress in their lives. And 20 billion of unplanned real terms spending cuts won't help.

    As for the unparliamentary rudery, I'd have made them sit in silence until someone owned up. Sorry Jeremy, I know you put a lot of work into your project, but we need to work out what just happened before you can share it with us.
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,001
    Fishing said:

    God forbid a man should call a spade a spade.

    Home Sec shouldn’t really be describing places as a shithole, least of all a home sec of a party that’s been governing for over 13 years - both from an ethical standpoint, and in a tactical sense considering it’s the ‘shithole’ places that Tories have to thank for voting in enough of their MPs to give them a strong majority.
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    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    I see there's a new outbreak of a respiratory illness, this time mostly affecting children, in China.

    What is it with that country?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjrVfWcflJ8
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    Here is the clip from PMQs. Tbh I cannot tell what is said. Maybe someone will have an AI-enhanced but not deepfaked version.
    https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1727312268122276198
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,001
    It’s a revealing moment, not unlike the ‘bigoted woman’ from Brown, in that it reveals what a lot of people suspect.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474
    .
    Fishing said:

    I see there's a new outbreak of a respiratory illness, this time mostly affecting children, in China.

    What is it with that country?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjrVfWcflJ8

    It's large, with a very large population ?
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    It's the cover-up that gets them in the end.
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,001

    Here is the clip from PMQs. Tbh I cannot tell what is said. Maybe someone will have an AI-enhanced but not deepfaked version.
    https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1727312268122276198

    Have to say I struggle to hear it though I say those in the chamber would have heard better.
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,339
    Ghedebrav said:

    Fishing said:

    God forbid a man should call a spade a spade.

    Home Sec shouldn’t really be describing places as a shithole, least of all a home sec of a party that’s been governing for over 13 years - both from an ethical standpoint, and in a tactical sense considering it’s the ‘shithole’ places that Tories have to thank for voting in enough of their MPs to give them a strong majority.
    Why the outcry. He was , if he said it probably being truthful. Rare for a politician. I would not want to.live in Stockton ...period.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    I see there's a new outbreak of a respiratory illness, this time mostly affecting children, in China.

    What is it with that country?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjrVfWcflJ8

    It could be a new disease, but early reports seem to be a plethora of known bugs, from covid to RSV to Mycoplasma. It may well just be a catch up phenomenon, following years of these children not being exposed to the usual winter bugs.

    Obviously should keep a watch on it, and it shows that we should be learning science from the covid enquiry, rather than seeing who had the frutiest language about their colleagues.
    Let’s hope it’s nothing worse than that!

    Yes, the only conclusion to be drawn from the Covid inquiry so far, is that in the next emergency all of the decision-makers and senior officials will only communicate verbally, therefore making the whole process of responding to the crisis much less efficient.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,800
    Sandpit said:

    Any Conserviative asked about “poverty” should reply that it’s a term now taken completely out of the context of its original meaning in the Western world, deliberately so by campaign groups, that they understand there’s inequality in the country, and that the government is committed to levelling up.

    He should have said “Shit happens.”

    The Opposition will accuse the Government of meanness, the Government will boast how profligate they are.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    Reeves pretty mediocre on Today this morning. She has two problems:

    She is proposing a Labour policy on tax and spend that is so terrified of a 1992-style gotcha that it doesn’t add up. Either she’s not telling the real truth about their plans, or Labour is going to be presiding over a further hollowing out of public services.

    And she doesn’t have the presentational skills to walk this tightrope in an interview. Too declaratory, not conversational enough.
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,001
    Sandpit said:

    Any Conserviative asked about “poverty” should reply that it’s a term now taken completely out of the context of its original meaning in the Western world, deliberately so by campaign groups, that they understand there’s inequality in the country, and that the government is committed to levelling up.

    Problem is (a) they’re all poshos and that comes across a bit Marie Antoinette.

    And (b) they’ve had 13 years to improve things.

    BTW I don’t disagree on the definition of ‘poverty’, which like ‘homeless’ doesn’t always mean what people immediately imagine it to mean (not necessarily, anyway) - however it does still bespeak inequality and the Tories will struggle in that particular political battlefield.
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    Ghedebrav said:

    Fishing said:

    God forbid a man should call a spade a spade.

    Home Sec shouldn’t really be describing places as a shithole, least of all a home sec of a party that’s been governing for over 13 years - both from an ethical standpoint, and in a tactical sense considering it’s the ‘shithole’ places that Tories have to thank for voting in enough of their MPs to give them a strong majority.
    Why the outcry. He was , if he said it probably being truthful. Rare for a politician. I would not want to.live in Stockton ...period.
    Half of Stockton is held by the Conservatives. Harold Macmillan, the former prime minister, was MP for and later Earl of Stockton.
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    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    edited November 2023
    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    I see there's a new outbreak of a respiratory illness, this time mostly affecting children, in China.

    What is it with that country?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjrVfWcflJ8

    It could be a new disease, but early reports seem to be a plethora of known bugs, from covid to RSV to Mycoplasma. It may well just be a catch up phenomenon, following years of these children not being exposed to the usual winter bugs.

    Obviously should keep a watch on it, and it shows that we should be learning science from the covid enquiry, rather than seeing who had the frutiest language about their colleagues.
    I hope it's just catchup.

    A judge-led inquiry featuring politicians and civil servants and covered by political journalists is the worst possible forum for learning useful lessons, but wonderful for political gossip and brilliant at wasting public money for a decade.
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    Sandpit said:

    Any Conserviative asked about “poverty” should reply that it’s a term now taken completely out of the context of its original meaning in the Western world, deliberately so by campaign groups, that they understand there’s inequality in the country, and that the government is committed to levelling up.

    Better than saying "because X is a shithole" or even "because you are a shit MP" (is that really an improvement?), but not much better.

    There are places in the UK where life is pretty rubbish, and this government hasn't really made things better. Lots of reasons for that, some of them insoluble. But the victors of 2016 made a lot of promises and a lot of people aren't seeing any progress in their lives. And 20 billion of unplanned real terms spending cuts won't help.

    As for the unparliamentary rudery, I'd have made them sit in silence until someone owned up. Sorry Jeremy, I know you put a lot of work into your project, but we need to work out what just happened before you can share it with us.
    As I bang on about often on here, the Tories had a genuine chance to redefine the political boundaries of this country when they brought the red wall into their coalition. The squandering of that opportunity (because there is no other word for it) will go down as one of the greatest strategic political errors by any party in modern history. It may, in the long term, even doom them.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,846
    Fishing said:

    God forbid a man should call a spade a spade.

    A spade is a spade.

    Stockton description is subjective. I think there are worse parts of the UK after 13 years of Tory rule
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    Fishing said:

    God forbid a man should call a spade a spade.

    A spade is a spade.

    Stockton description is subjective. I think there are worse parts of the UK after 13 years of Tory rule
    Being an MP for Essex, Cleverly knows all about shitholes.
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,001
    edited November 2023

    Ghedebrav said:

    Fishing said:

    God forbid a man should call a spade a spade.

    Home Sec shouldn’t really be describing places as a shithole, least of all a home sec of a party that’s been governing for over 13 years - both from an ethical standpoint, and in a tactical sense considering it’s the ‘shithole’ places that Tories have to thank for voting in enough of their MPs to give them a strong majority.
    Why the outcry. He was , if he said it probably being truthful. Rare for a politician. I would not want to.live in Stockton ...period.
    Gerald Ratner was also being truthful.

    Cleverly and his party needs people in ‘shitholes’ to vote for him. Not only is it an unpleasant thing to say, but it is his and his party’s job to make places like Stockton not be a shithole.

    In one remark he’s neatly encapsulated the contempt with which they hold the ‘red wall’, and the extent to which they’ve failed it.
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    Lots of old industrial towns and cities are a bit shithole.

    The good news is that some regeneration of city centres - like in Manchester and Birmingham- has been pretty damn good, and almost all are surrounded by lovely countryside, towns and villages inside 45 minutes.

    But some of our industrial era spring-ups?

    Not exactly Poundbury.
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    Sandpit said:

    Any Conserviative asked about “poverty” should reply that it’s a term now taken completely out of the context of its original meaning in the Western world, deliberately so by campaign groups, that they understand there’s inequality in the country, and that the government is committed to levelling up.

    Better than saying "because X is a shithole" or even "because you are a shit MP" (is that really an improvement?), but not much better.

    There are places in the UK where life is pretty rubbish, and this government hasn't really made things better. Lots of reasons for that, some of them insoluble. But the victors of 2016 made a lot of promises and a lot of people aren't seeing any progress in their lives. And 20 billion of unplanned real terms spending cuts won't help.

    As for the unparliamentary rudery, I'd have made them sit in silence until someone owned up. Sorry Jeremy, I know you put a lot of work into your project, but we need to work out what just happened before you can share it with us.
    As I bang on about often on here, the Tories had a genuine chance to redefine the political boundaries of this country when they brought the red wall into their coalition. The squandering of that opportunity (because there is no other word for it) will go down as one of the greatest strategic political errors by any party in modern history. It may, in the long term, even doom them.
    Levelling up needed to be more than a slogan. Dominic Cummings understood that. Boris understood it too, at least when he had just been talking to Cummings. Rishi never did.
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    Taz said:
    It also means an end to refining. An astute government might intervene on national security grounds.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Fishing said:

    I see there's a new outbreak of a respiratory illness, this time mostly affecting children, in China.

    What is it with that country?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjrVfWcflJ8

    Because their previously engineered illness wasn't sufficiently scary. It mostly attacked the elderly.

    They've learned that what they needed was one that truly terrifies: one that attacks children...
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578

    Taz said:
    It also means an end to refining. An astute government might intervene on national security grounds.
    An end to refining in Scotland perhaps, but don't we have others such as Fawley?
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    4% of Scottish manufacturing, isn't it?
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    Lots of old industrial towns and cities are a bit shithole.

    The good news is that some regeneration of city centres - like in Manchester and Birmingham- has been pretty damn good, and almost all are surrounded by lovely countryside, towns and villages inside 45 minutes.

    But some of our industrial era spring-ups?

    Not exactly Poundbury.

    That's the emotional problem, though.

    If we want to be richer, I suspect the way to do it involves more people working in cities- agglomeration and all that. Somewhere between five and ten of them. (I'd go roughly for the old regional ITV bases). Everywhere else is predominantly a dormitory town with a rail link to the big city.

    But the local pride factors- Stockton doesn't want to be subservient to Newcastle, Portsmouth to Southampton, Romford to London- mean we daren't do that. And Red Wall Theory has probably made it harder.
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    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Fishing said:

    I see there's a new outbreak of a respiratory illness, this time mostly affecting children, in China.

    What is it with that country?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjrVfWcflJ8

    It's large, with a very large population ?
    So is India.

    Here are some more convincing explanations:

    https://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2020/02/18/why_do_new_disease_outbreaks_always_seem_to_start_in_china.html

    South Central China is a noted "mixing vessel" for viruses, Dr. Peter Daszak, President of EcoHealth Alliance, told PBS in 2016. There's lots of livestock farming, particularly poultry and pigs, with limited sanitation and lax oversight. Farmers often bring their livestock to "wet markets" where they can come into contact with all sorts of exotic animals.

    "Many Chinese people, even city dwellers, insist that freshly slaughtered poultry is tastier and more healthful than refrigerated or frozen meat," journalist Melinda Liu wrote for Smithsonian in 2017. "The public’s taste for freshly killed meat, and the conditions at live markets, create ample opportunity for humans to come in contact with these new mutations."

    "Moreover, when stricken with an illness, many Chinese first seek out traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), where practitioners regularly misdiagnose symptoms, then offer acupuncture or ineffective herbal or animal-based remedies as treatments. This drastically increases death rates during outbreaks and allows infected individuals to return to the public where they can infect more people."

    China is also notorious for its misinformation, secrecy, and censorship, which raises the chances that new diseases will fester and spread. Back in early January [2020], Chinese government officials told the public that the new infection's spread had been effectively halted. This was not true.
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    Ghedebrav said:

    Fishing said:

    God forbid a man should call a spade a spade.

    Home Sec shouldn’t really be describing places as a shithole, least of all a home sec of a party that’s been governing for over 13 years - both from an ethical standpoint, and in a tactical sense considering it’s the ‘shithole’ places that Tories have to thank for voting in enough of their MPs to give them a strong majority.
    Why the outcry. He was , if he said it probably being truthful. Rare for a politician. I would not want to.live in Stockton ...period.
    Half of Stockton is held by the Conservatives. Harold Macmillan, the former prime minister, was MP for and later Earl of Stockton.
    I was in Stockton on Friday night, having drinks with the former mayor and various councillors. Including one of the councillors for the Town Centre ward which has the lowest female life expectancy anywhere in the country.

    Despite their best efforts, parts of the town are indeed a shithole. But if you are the Tories who are doing better on Teesside than anywhere else in the red wall, why would you say that? Whose fault is it that the town is a shithole? And why would you vote for Matt Vickers if your town is so irrelevant that "because its a shithole" can be spat out by the Home Secretary?
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    NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,347
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:
    It also means an end to refining. An astute government might intervene on national security grounds.
    An end to refining in Scotland perhaps, but don't we have others such as Fawley?
    Im looking at Fawley now.

    https://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/23777854.fawley-refinery-expansion-1-000-jobs-set-progress/
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    Fishing said:

    God forbid a man should call a spade a spade.

    A spade is a spade.

    Stockton description is subjective. I think there are worse parts of the UK after 13 years of Tory rule
    Being an MP for Essex, Cleverly knows all about shitholes.
    Oi, wotchit is Sunshine, or I'll send the boys round.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:
    It also means an end to refining. An astute government might intervene on national security grounds.
    An end to refining in Scotland perhaps, but don't we have others such as Fawley?
    Im looking at Fawley now.

    https://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/23777854.fawley-refinery-expansion-1-000-jobs-set-progress/
    Yes, it always looks busy when I am on the Red Funnel.
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    Foxy said:

    Taz said:
    It also means an end to refining. An astute government might intervene on national security grounds.
    An end to refining in Scotland perhaps, but don't we have others such as Fawley?
    Good point. An astute Scottish government, then. For the rest of us:-
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_refining_in_the_United_Kingdom
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,119

    Fishing said:

    God forbid a man should call a spade a spade.

    A spade is a spade.

    Stockton description is subjective. I think there are worse parts of the UK after 13 years of Tory rule
    Many of these places were hardly glittering examples of modern towns and cities after 13 years of labour taking them for granted. My town went backwards from the moment labour forced through one county council for Durham as opposed to several local ones, and has never recovered.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,504
    edited November 2023
    Just to comment that the weekend 60 years ago was just extraordinary, and (I was 8, nearly 9) marked for me a sort of political awakening, simultaneously with the memorable start of a cultural phenomenon.
    Friday 22nd: JFK killed
    Saturday 23rd: 1st episode of Dr Who
    Sunday 24th: LHO killed.

    There is no weekend of my childhood I recall so vividly. All elements of it are still avidly discussed.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474

    Fishing said:

    God forbid a man should call a spade a spade.

    A spade is a spade.

    Stockton description is subjective. I think there are worse parts of the UK after 13 years of Tory rule
    Being an MP for Essex, Cleverly knows all about shitholes.
    Being a member of several recent Cabinets...
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    Taz said:

    Fishing said:

    God forbid a man should call a spade a spade.

    A spade is a spade.

    Stockton description is subjective. I think there are worse parts of the UK after 13 years of Tory rule
    Many of these places were hardly glittering examples of modern towns and cities after 13 years of labour taking them for granted. My town went backwards from the moment labour forced through one county council for Durham as opposed to several local ones, and has never recovered.
    Yep - slid backwards for decades. The huge turnout for Brexit was a vote to change a status quo where they had been abandoned - with the 2019 follow-up vote for the Tories.

    I said at the time that the Tories had to deliver change. Levelling up needed to be tangible, not a slogan. So not only have the Tories not levelled up these places, then now sneer that they are a shithole. And in their gut you have a community which still blames the Thatcher era for what happened to them.

    Expect practically every single one of those seat to go Labour in May. Perhaps a solitary Tory will survive in the red wall. Perhaps not.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,960

    Fishing said:

    God forbid a man should call a spade a spade.

    A spade is a spade.

    Stockton description is subjective. I think there are worse parts of the UK after 13 years of Tory rule
    Being an MP for Essex, Cleverly knows all about shitholes.

    Fishing said:

    God forbid a man should call a spade a spade.

    A spade is a spade.

    Stockton description is subjective. I think there are worse parts of the UK after 13 years of Tory rule
    Being an MP for Essex, Cleverly knows all about shitholes.
    Some parts of Braintree town have become less ‘pleasant’ over the last few years, but his constituency includes some very attractive villages indeed.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,939

    Lots of old industrial towns and cities are a bit shithole.

    The good news is that some regeneration of city centres - like in Manchester and Birmingham- has been pretty damn good, and almost all are surrounded by lovely countryside, towns and villages inside 45 minutes.

    But some of our industrial era spring-ups?

    Not exactly Poundbury.

    That's the emotional problem, though.

    If we want to be richer, I suspect the way to do it involves more people working in cities- agglomeration and all that. Somewhere between five and ten of them. (I'd go roughly for the old regional ITV bases). Everywhere else is predominantly a dormitory town with a rail link to the big city.

    But the local pride factors- Stockton doesn't want to be subservient to Newcastle, Portsmouth to Southampton, Romford to London- mean we daren't do that. And Red Wall Theory has probably made it harder.
    Indeed. Visited Leicester and Nottingham over a few days recently. Nottingham (old ITV base) is a bigger metro but there’s not a vast amount in it, population wise. Yet the cities do not compare. Nottingham is very obviously the regional capital, a great city in fact. Leicester is a dump, just boring. Made me wonder what non-core cities are ‘for’. Hmm.
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    Taz said:

    Fishing said:

    God forbid a man should call a spade a spade.

    A spade is a spade.

    Stockton description is subjective. I think there are worse parts of the UK after 13 years of Tory rule
    Many of these places were hardly glittering examples of modern towns and cities after 13 years of labour taking them for granted. My town went backwards from the moment labour forced through one county council for Durham as opposed to several local ones, and has never recovered.
    Yep - slid backwards for decades. The huge turnout for Brexit was a vote to change a status quo where they had been abandoned - with the 2019 follow-up vote for the Tories.

    I said at the time that the Tories had to deliver change. Levelling up needed to be tangible, not a slogan. So not only have the Tories not levelled up these places, then now sneer that they are a shithole. And in their gut you have a community which still blames the Thatcher era for what happened to them.

    Expect practically every single one of those seat to go Labour in May. Perhaps a solitary Tory will survive in the red wall. Perhaps not.
    The tragedy of pretty much all populism, wherever and whenever.

    People in despair vote for populists who promise to improve their lives. But populism always makes things worse, because its prescriptions are harmful.

    There might be exceptions, but I can't think of any.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,504
    edited November 2023
    The BBC headline on the Dutch election slightly overdoes it:

    Dutch election: Anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders wins dramatic victory

    The 'win' involves winning 37 seats out of 150.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    Ghedebrav said:

    Fishing said:

    God forbid a man should call a spade a spade.

    Home Sec shouldn’t really be describing places as a shithole, least of all a home sec of a party that’s been governing for over 13 years - both from an ethical standpoint, and in a tactical sense considering it’s the ‘shithole’ places that Tories have to thank for voting in enough of their MPs to give them a strong majority.
    I think Cleverly likes a joke, but joke or serious it's silly to say something like that where you'll likely be caught doing so.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,124
    edited November 2023
    Taz said:

    Fishing said:

    God forbid a man should call a spade a spade.

    A spade is a spade.

    Stockton description is subjective. I think there are worse parts of the UK after 13 years of Tory rule
    Many of these places were hardly glittering examples of modern towns and cities after 13 years of labour taking them for granted. My town went backwards from the moment labour forced through one county council for Durham as opposed to several local ones, and has never recovered.
    It wasn't just the Labour Government between 1997 and 2010 that flushed places like Stockton down the toilet. Labour local authority corruption in the English, Scottish and Welsh Red Walls since before the war has ensured the people and their towns and pit villages became economic deserts. Hence Brexit and Boris being the only way forward. Now that has all turned to dust, who have they got to save them? There is a man in the Australian Outback who says he has all the answers.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    edited November 2023

    Taz said:

    Fishing said:

    God forbid a man should call a spade a spade.

    A spade is a spade.

    Stockton description is subjective. I think there are worse parts of the UK after 13 years of Tory rule
    Many of these places were hardly glittering examples of modern towns and cities after 13 years of labour taking them for granted. My town went backwards from the moment labour forced through one county council for Durham as opposed to several local ones, and has never recovered.
    Yep - slid backwards for decades. The huge turnout for Brexit was a vote to change a status quo where they had been abandoned - with the 2019 follow-up vote for the Tories.

    I said at the time that the Tories had to deliver change. Levelling up needed to be tangible, not a slogan. So not only have the Tories not levelled up these places, then now sneer that they are a shithole. And in their gut you have a community which still blames the Thatcher era for what happened to them.

    Expect practically every single one of those seat to go Labour in May. Perhaps a solitary Tory will survive in the red wall. Perhaps not.
    The are has been trending more Tory for some time, prior to Boris winning them over en masse, but it does seem they've not only reversed the 2019 increase but all the previous election increases too.

    The Tories would have expected to lose some, but a wipeout whilst also getting pressure in the Midlands and even the rural South? Nightmare scenario.
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    algarkirk said:

    The BBC headline on the Dutch election slightly overdoes it:

    Dutch election: Anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders wins dramatic victory

    The 'win' involves winning 37 seats out of 150.

    It's the same scenario we used to think might play out here, before the Conservatives really messed up.

    Conservatives most seats, but not able to form a government because they had no allies. Is that a win, or a defeat?

    Only with knobs on.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,586
    What does the shock Dutch election result mean, soon after the shock Argentine result? I think it means voters blame incumbents for inflation. That’s bad for the Tories.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,119

    Taz said:

    Fishing said:

    God forbid a man should call a spade a spade.

    A spade is a spade.

    Stockton description is subjective. I think there are worse parts of the UK after 13 years of Tory rule
    Many of these places were hardly glittering examples of modern towns and cities after 13 years of labour taking them for granted. My town went backwards from the moment labour forced through one county council for Durham as opposed to several local ones, and has never recovered.
    Yep - slid backwards for decades. The huge turnout for Brexit was a vote to change a status quo where they had been abandoned - with the 2019 follow-up vote for the Tories.

    I said at the time that the Tories had to deliver change. Levelling up needed to be tangible, not a slogan. So not only have the Tories not levelled up these places, then now sneer that they are a shithole. And in their gut you have a community which still blames the Thatcher era for what happened to them.

    Expect practically every single one of those seat to go Labour in May. Perhaps a solitary Tory will survive in the red wall. Perhaps not.
    I think the changing nature of some of the red wall seats. Lots of new build estates over the past decade or so, and some of these seats had already moved tory prior to 2019 may see some stay Tory, just. No more than a handful. I cannot see any that went Tory in 2019 remaining Tory. Bassetlaw possibly.

    Sadly levelling up was just a slogan. We are no better off than we were. Brexit was a vote to change the status quo, as you say. Problem is in areas like this since the financial crash we have literally had no growth, or negligible growth. It took nearly a decade for my home to be back to the value it was pre crash.

    In London and the South East they raced ahead. The country became more uneven. I remember a town hall in Newcastle on Brexit and one of the panel said something along the lines of "don't vote brexit, it will jeopardise our economic growth" to which one of the audience said "it's your growth, it is not ours"

    I said at the time to friends and colleagues alot of people who supported it in red wall areas were doing so on the promise of prosperity and improved economic circumstances and heaven help the Tories if that does not come to pass.

    Forget Thatcher, they really will have someone to blame.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,797
    He won't be joining Kemi in the final two for the leadership after the election, then?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    The Sam Altman story keeps running. Now it looks like he’s coming back to OpenAI, and the board that fired him have themselves been fired.

    The starting point for the whole mess appears to have been a disagreement (to put it mildly) among the engineers working on ChatGPT. It’s not clear if that disagreement is any closer to being resolved.

    All rather intriguing.

    https://slashdot.org/story/23/11/23/0130213/openai-researchers-warned-board-of-ai-breakthrough-ahead-of-ceo-ouster
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,797

    What does the shock Dutch election result mean, soon after the shock Argentine result? I think it means voters blame incumbents for inflation. That’s bad for the Tories.

    Inflation yes, but I think the real message is that the forces which drove such events as Trump and Brexit (starting all the way back with the 2008 crash) are still playing out.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    Taz said:
    It also means an end to refining. An astute government might intervene on national security grounds.
    Price of Scotland looking a bit flaky long-term in the Union. File under "Why would you?"

    Now, if it were Fawley....
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859

    What does the shock Dutch election result mean, soon after the shock Argentine result? I think it means voters blame incumbents for inflation. That’s bad for the Tories.

    A combination of incumbents everywhere getting blamed for the economy, and a general shift rightwards socially among the electorate, especially with regard to immigration.

    Thankfully (for you) the main Opposition in the UK is of the centre left, rather than to the right of the incumbents.
  • Options
    NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,347
    Totally O/T. I went on the London Cable Car yesterday, it is fantastic and an absolute bargain at £12 return, its much better than the London Eye with amazing views.

    https://tfl.gov.uk/modes/london-cable-car/
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554

    Lots of old industrial towns and cities are a bit shithole.

    The good news is that some regeneration of city centres - like in Manchester and Birmingham- has been pretty damn good, and almost all are surrounded by lovely countryside, towns and villages inside 45 minutes.

    But some of our industrial era spring-ups?

    Not exactly Poundbury.

    That's the emotional problem, though.

    If we want to be richer, I suspect the way to do it involves more people working in cities- agglomeration and all that. Somewhere between five and ten of them. (I'd go roughly for the old regional ITV bases). Everywhere else is predominantly a dormitory town with a rail link to the big city.

    But the local pride factors- Stockton doesn't want to be subservient to Newcastle, Portsmouth to Southampton, Romford to London- mean we daren't do that. And Red Wall Theory has probably made it harder.
    Indeed. Visited Leicester and Nottingham over a few days recently. Nottingham (old ITV base) is a bigger metro but there’s not a vast amount in it, population wise. Yet the cities do not compare. Nottingham is very obviously the regional capital, a great city in fact. Leicester is a dump, just boring. Made me wonder what non-core cities are ‘for’. Hmm.
    The biggest potential assets that smaller non-core cities have are housing, and as a convenient base for light industry and corporate offices. They needn't be pretty - if people want to live there and make use of lower house prices then let them. The problem we have is non-core cities that are not sufficiently well connected with the bigger cities (and beauty spots). It needs to be quick and easy to get to somewhere nice to go out at the weekend or go shopping or do touristy things.

    Then there are regional capitals, with more to them, more heritage and culture, nice restaurants. They needn't be so well connected to elsewhere because they are more self-sufficient. But they need a decent hinterland.

    Germany manages very well with a large number of smaller cities all close by and connected to each other, especially in the North West. France and Italy are quite good at pretty regional capitals, though they have their fair share of Stocktons too.

    I understand Leicester does OK, economically. It's pretty well located and accessible on the motorway network. Just not a beauty spot.

    This is where central and local government can help. Rail and road infrastructure that turns isolated nothing towns into parts of larger conurbations, and regional industrial strategy (including devolved tax) that encourages mid sized industry to locate outside the commuter belt.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    Sandpit said:

    The Sam Altman story keeps running. Now it looks like he’s coming back to OpenAI, and the board that fired him have themselves been fired.

    The starting point for the whole mess appears to have been a disagreement (to put it mildly) among the engineers working on ChatGPT. It’s not clear if that disagreement is any closer to being resolved.

    All rather intriguing.

    https://slashdot.org/story/23/11/23/0130213/openai-researchers-warned-board-of-ai-breakthrough-ahead-of-ceo-ouster

    *ahem*

    I did say that the only overriding explanation for the chaos was that OpenAI had got near to - or had achieved - something that could be described as AGI

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,907

    algarkirk said:

    The BBC headline on the Dutch election slightly overdoes it:

    Dutch election: Anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders wins dramatic victory

    The 'win' involves winning 37 seats out of 150.

    It's the same scenario we used to think might play out here, before the Conservatives really messed up.

    Conservatives most seats, but not able to form a government because they had no allies. Is that a win, or a defeat?

    Only with knobs on.
    I suppose PvdA/Grune-Linke / VVD / NSC / D66 could form a coalition gov't but I doubt it'd last long and support for PVV (Or BBB (I get the feeling those bases are somewhat fluid)) would probably be even higher at the next election. It'd look like the coalition of losers it most certainly would be.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554

    What does the shock Dutch election result mean, soon after the shock Argentine result? I think it means voters blame incumbents for inflation. That’s bad for the Tories.

    Yep. Though historically inflation has tended to be the number one trigger for revolutions and the rise of populism, not just a change of incumbent. It makes people's lives seem out of control.

    Many examples in history of course, with the most recent being the massive food price inflation leading up to the Arab Spring.

    Doesn't bode well for the Tories, but also doesn't bode hugely well for Biden.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,124
    GIN1138 said:

    What does the shock Dutch election result mean, soon after the shock Argentine result? I think it means voters blame incumbents for inflation. That’s bad for the Tories.

    Inflation yes, but I think the real message is that the forces which drove such events as Trump and Brexit (starting all the way back with the 2008 crash) are still playing out.
    In Europe the asylum seeker crisis is allowing haters of foreigners to promote their xenophobia. And the voter is buying it. Surely having decimated places just to the South of Europe since 9/11 such an influx was inevitable.

    Our Rwanda policy is a joke, nonetheless the EU needs to get its act together over offshoring asylum claims from small boat people as much as we do.

    The influx of economic migrants is another reason cutting international development aid is not as clever as a certain brand of Tory believe it to be.

    None of that explains Argentina of course.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554

    Totally O/T. I went on the London Cable Car yesterday, it is fantastic and an absolute bargain at £12 return, its much better than the London Eye with amazing views.

    https://tfl.gov.uk/modes/london-cable-car/

    The downside is there's not much to see at the other end. But I agree, the views are good.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,907
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    The Sam Altman story keeps running. Now it looks like he’s coming back to OpenAI, and the board that fired him have themselves been fired.

    The starting point for the whole mess appears to have been a disagreement (to put it mildly) among the engineers working on ChatGPT. It’s not clear if that disagreement is any closer to being resolved.

    All rather intriguing.

    https://slashdot.org/story/23/11/23/0130213/openai-researchers-warned-board-of-ai-breakthrough-ahead-of-ceo-ouster

    *ahem*

    I did say that the only overriding explanation for the chaos was that OpenAI had got near to - or had achieved - something that could be described as AGI

    Is AGI an acronym for Artificial General Intelligence ?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    I can happily report that Phnom Penh Central market is as brilliantly chaotic and intense as ever. Hasn’t changed in 20 years. So far I have bought 50 tablets of Alprazolam 0.5mg and two absurdly underpriced bottles of Pomerol

    I have declined the sheep’s brain tho last night I did eat congealed pig’s blood. Its fairly disgusting

    Now to see if the stall where I bought a dried frog, two decades ago, still exists



    I love Phnom Penh. I love Cambodia
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,124
    Leon said:

    I can happily report that Phnom Penh Central market is as brilliantly chaotic and intense as ever. Hasn’t changed in 20 years. So far I have bought 50 tablets of Alprazolam 0.5mg and two absurdly underpriced bottles of Pomerol

    I have declined the sheep’s brain tho last night I did eat congealed pig’s blood. Its fairly disgusting

    Now to see if the stall where I bought a dried frog, two decades ago, still exists



    I love Phnom Penh. I love Cambodia

    They eat black pudding in Phnom Penh?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Leon said:

    I can happily report that Phnom Penh Central market is as brilliantly chaotic and intense as ever. Hasn’t changed in 20 years. So far I have bought 50 tablets of Alprazolam 0.5mg and two absurdly underpriced bottles of Pomerol

    I have declined the sheep’s brain tho last night I did eat congealed pig’s blood. Its fairly disgusting

    Now to see if the stall where I bought a dried frog, two decades ago, still exists



    I love Phnom Penh. I love Cambodia

    They eat black pudding in Phnom Penh?
    They eat it kind of… raw. Or fermented. Or something. As a sludgy condiment. It’s…. Musky
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    Leon said:

    I can happily report that Phnom Penh Central market is as brilliantly chaotic and intense as ever. Hasn’t changed in 20 years. So far I have bought 50 tablets of Alprazolam 0.5mg and two absurdly underpriced bottles of Pomerol

    I have declined the sheep’s brain tho last night I did eat congealed pig’s blood. Its fairly disgusting

    Now to see if the stall where I bought a dried frog, two decades ago, still exists



    I love Phnom Penh. I love Cambodia

    You're confident that Alprazolam will be legit? Brave Foolish.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,939
    TimS said:

    Lots of old industrial towns and cities are a bit shithole.

    The good news is that some regeneration of city centres - like in Manchester and Birmingham- has been pretty damn good, and almost all are surrounded by lovely countryside, towns and villages inside 45 minutes.

    But some of our industrial era spring-ups?

    Not exactly Poundbury.

    That's the emotional problem, though.

    If we want to be richer, I suspect the way to do it involves more people working in cities- agglomeration and all that. Somewhere between five and ten of them. (I'd go roughly for the old regional ITV bases). Everywhere else is predominantly a dormitory town with a rail link to the big city.

    But the local pride factors- Stockton doesn't want to be subservient to Newcastle, Portsmouth to Southampton, Romford to London- mean we daren't do that. And Red Wall Theory has probably made it harder.
    Indeed. Visited Leicester and Nottingham over a few days recently. Nottingham (old ITV base) is a bigger metro but there’s not a vast amount in it, population wise. Yet the cities do not compare. Nottingham is very obviously the regional capital, a great city in fact. Leicester is a dump, just boring. Made me wonder what non-core cities are ‘for’. Hmm.
    The biggest potential assets that smaller non-core cities have are housing, and as a convenient base for light industry and corporate offices. They needn't be pretty - if people want to live there and make use of lower house prices then let them. The problem we have is non-core cities that are not sufficiently well connected with the bigger cities (and beauty spots). It needs to be quick and easy to get to somewhere nice to go out at the weekend or go shopping or do touristy things.

    Then there are regional capitals, with more to them, more heritage and culture, nice restaurants. They needn't be so well connected to elsewhere because they are more self-sufficient. But they need a decent hinterland.

    Germany manages very well with a large number of smaller cities all close by and connected to each other, especially in the North West. France and Italy are quite good at pretty regional capitals, though they have their fair share of Stocktons too.

    I understand Leicester does OK, economically. It's pretty well located and accessible on the motorway network. Just not a beauty spot.

    This is where central and local government can help. Rail and road infrastructure that turns isolated nothing towns into parts of larger conurbations, and regional industrial strategy (including devolved tax) that encourages mid sized industry to locate outside the commuter belt.
    Sure, and lots of people in Leicester seemingly just go to Nottingham for nights out, restaurants, culture etc. The train is only 25 minutes and a local cabbie told me that every Friday and Saturday his firm were coining it in picking up big groups of people from Derby, Leicester etc and fetching them in for nights out. As you say, decent places to live because well connected to the regional capital but they have less to offer as places in their own right.
  • Options
    JamesFJamesF Posts: 14
    Dear PB regulars - is there anyone here who has been talking about the Dutch election? Is there an old thread I should trawl? Has it had much attention on this site?
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,800
    TimS said:

    What does the shock Dutch election result mean, soon after the shock Argentine result? I think it means voters blame incumbents for inflation. That’s bad for the Tories.

    Yep. Though historically inflation has tended to be the number one trigger for revolutions and the rise of populism, not just a change of incumbent. It makes people's lives seem out of control.

    Many examples in history of course, with the most recent being the massive food price inflation leading up to the Arab Spring.

    Doesn't bode well for the Tories, but also doesn't bode hugely well for Biden.
    People will grin and bear unemployment, but as you say, rampant inflation makes them want to topple the government (St. Petersburg, in Spring 1917, being the classic example).
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,800

    GIN1138 said:

    What does the shock Dutch election result mean, soon after the shock Argentine result? I think it means voters blame incumbents for inflation. That’s bad for the Tories.

    Inflation yes, but I think the real message is that the forces which drove such events as Trump and Brexit (starting all the way back with the 2008 crash) are still playing out.
    In Europe the asylum seeker crisis is allowing haters of foreigners to promote their xenophobia. And the voter is buying it. Surely having decimated places just to the South of Europe since 9/11 such an influx was inevitable.

    Our Rwanda policy is a joke, nonetheless the EU needs to get its act together over offshoring asylum claims from small boat people as much as we do.

    The influx of economic migrants is another reason cutting international development aid is not as clever as a certain brand of Tory believe it to be.

    None of that explains Argentina of course.
    Pretty well, all Western countries have seen living standards grow (if at all), much more slowly since 2000, than was the norm, from
    c.1950. That results in instability.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    edited November 2023
    @Benpointer

    You're confident that Alprazolam will be legit? Brave Foolish.

    ++++


    Are you joking? I’ve been buying benzos around the world for 35 years

    It’s legit

    These pills are now so cheap and easy to make there is no point in faking them

    I bought a load last year virtually same place same price. Legit

  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,504

    algarkirk said:

    The BBC headline on the Dutch election slightly overdoes it:

    Dutch election: Anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders wins dramatic victory

    The 'win' involves winning 37 seats out of 150.

    It's the same scenario we used to think might play out here, before the Conservatives really messed up.

    Conservatives most seats, but not able to form a government because they had no allies. Is that a win, or a defeat?

    Only with knobs on.
    Yes. Of course there are lots of possibilities once the current mess is over. For example (this won't happen), a GE result is the same as 2019 except that the LDs take 55 seats off the Tories. Tories have 310 seats, Labour have 202. As things currently stand Labour + rainbow would form the government. Under a One Nation Conservative party (!) Tories might lead a fairly simple coalition, like the one that worked out so well for the LDs last time.

  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    edited November 2023
    Ghedebrav said:

    Here is the clip from PMQs. Tbh I cannot tell what is said. Maybe someone will have an AI-enhanced but not deepfaked version.
    https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1727312268122276198

    Have to say I struggle to hear it though I say those in the chamber would have heard better.
    I've just listened to the clip. First time I missed it but once I read it was just before Sunak answered, I distinctly heard 'shit' at 00:09s followed by another indistinct syllable that could easily have been 'hole'. One thing I am sure of it was two syllables with the emphasis on the first. Shithole fits; shit MP does not.

    Conclusion: Cleverly was not acting very cleverly.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:

    @Benpointer


    You're confident that Alprazolam will be legit? Brave Foolish.

    ++++


    Are you joking? I’ve been buying benzos around the world for 35 years

    It’s legit

    These pills are now so cheap and easy to make there is no point in faking them

    I bought a load last year virtually same place same price. Legit

    I bow to your superior knowledge.

    But why do you need them?
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,141
    edited November 2023
    JamesF said:

    Dear PB regulars - is there anyone here who has been talking about the Dutch election? Is there an old thread I should trawl? Has it had much attention on this site?

    'Fraid not. I tried to get adiscussion y'day to no avail

  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,310
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:

    @Benpointer

    You're confident that Alprazolam will be legit? Brave Foolish.
    ++++


    Are you joking? I’ve been buying benzos around the world for 35 years

    It’s legit

    These pills are now so cheap and easy to make there is no point in faking them

    I bought a load last year virtually same place same price. Legit

    It is the Pomerol I'd be more worried about since it is unlikely les French chateaux have a discount rate for Far-East wholesalers. Locally-produced would be understandable.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    JamesF said:

    Dear PB regulars - is there anyone here who has been talking about the Dutch election? Is there an old thread I should trawl? Has it had much attention on this site?

    It was covered quite extensively on the previous thread last night.
  • Options
    The problem the other Dutch parties face is that freezing out PVV even though they are by some way the largest party will probably assist in amplifying their message and increasing their popularity.

    See also what I suspect is coming re the AFD in Germany.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,326
    Sandpit said:

    What does the shock Dutch election result mean, soon after the shock Argentine result? I think it means voters blame incumbents for inflation. That’s bad for the Tories.

    A combination of incumbents everywhere getting blamed for the economy, and a general shift rightwards socially among the electorate, especially with regard to immigration.

    Thankfully (for you) the main Opposition in the UK is of the centre left, rather than to the right of the incumbents.
    One factor seems to have been that the moderately conservative VVD tried to highlight immigration as a key issue, rather than the farming/nitrogen crisis that had led to the huge rise in the BBB farmers' party. People responded not by voting VVD but by voting for the most anti-immigrant party.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    Sean_F said:

    TimS said:

    What does the shock Dutch election result mean, soon after the shock Argentine result? I think it means voters blame incumbents for inflation. That’s bad for the Tories.

    Yep. Though historically inflation has tended to be the number one trigger for revolutions and the rise of populism, not just a change of incumbent. It makes people's lives seem out of control.

    Many examples in history of course, with the most recent being the massive food price inflation leading up to the Arab Spring.

    Doesn't bode well for the Tories, but also doesn't bode hugely well for Biden.
    People will grin and bear unemployment, but as you say, rampant inflation makes them want to topple the government (St. Petersburg, in Spring 1917, being the classic example).
    Or Argentina, somewhat more recently, where inflation is 100% and the new government are about to move to formal dollarisation.
  • Options

    Ghedebrav said:

    Here is the clip from PMQs. Tbh I cannot tell what is said. Maybe someone will have an AI-enhanced but not deepfaked version.
    https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1727312268122276198

    Have to say I struggle to hear it though I say those in the chamber would have heard better.
    I've just listened to the clip. First time I missed it but once I read it was just before Sunak answered, I distinctly heard 'shit' at 00:09s followed by another indistinct syllable that could easily have been 'hole'. One thing I am sure of it was two syllables with the emphasis on the first. Shithole fits; shit MP does not.

    Conclusion: Cleverly was not acting very cleverly.
    Yeah, I thought it might be "heap" not "hole" but the emphasis on "shit" clearly suggests it wasn't "MP" that followed (also it wouldn't make sense as the ability of an individual MP to impact significantly the incidence of poverty in their constituency must be more or less nil, especially an opposition MP with limited access to the Levelling Up Flower Baskets Shit Towns Prole Bribery Fund, as I believe it's called).
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Leon said:

    @Benpointer

    You're confident that Alprazolam will be legit? Brave Foolish.
    ++++


    Are you joking? I’ve been buying benzos around the world for 35 years

    It’s legit

    These pills are now so cheap and easy to make there is no point in faking them

    I bought a load last year virtually same place same price. Legit

    It is the Pomerol I'd be more worried about since it is unlikely les French chateaux have a discount rate for Far-East wholesalers. Locally-produced would be understandable.
    No, it will be real

    They import a lot for a sizeable French expat community: the old colonial link. There were French people in the liquor store as I strolled about. Lots of restaurants have good French wine as well

    And wine is really cheap in Cambodia - incredibly
    cheap compared to Thailand (which is the opposite)
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,319

    GIN1138 said:

    What does the shock Dutch election result mean, soon after the shock Argentine result? I think it means voters blame incumbents for inflation. That’s bad for the Tories.

    Inflation yes, but I think the real message is that the forces which drove such events as Trump and Brexit (starting all the way back with the 2008 crash) are still playing out.
    In Europe the asylum seeker crisis is allowing haters of foreigners to promote their xenophobia. And the voter is buying it. Surely having decimated places just to the South of Europe since 9/11 such an influx was inevitable.

    Our Rwanda policy is a joke, nonetheless the EU needs to get its act together over offshoring asylum claims from small boat people as much as we do.

    The influx of economic migrants is another reason cutting international development aid is not as clever as a certain brand of Tory believe it to be.

    None of that explains Argentina of course.
    They all come from the same place - government by short termism + SHUT UP ABOUT THE PROBLEMS

    Everything is the universe has upsides and downsides. So when the government sells the Happy Shiny Future, and your life doesn't match, there is this strange tendency not to trust the government. When the entire political class sells the same, the trust in the political class goes down. Strangely.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,319
    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    The Sam Altman story keeps running. Now it looks like he’s coming back to OpenAI, and the board that fired him have themselves been fired.

    The starting point for the whole mess appears to have been a disagreement (to put it mildly) among the engineers working on ChatGPT. It’s not clear if that disagreement is any closer to being resolved.

    All rather intriguing.

    https://slashdot.org/story/23/11/23/0130213/openai-researchers-warned-board-of-ai-breakthrough-ahead-of-ceo-ouster

    *ahem*

    I did say that the only overriding explanation for the chaos was that OpenAI had got near to - or had achieved - something that could be described as AGI

    Is AGI an acronym for Artificial General Intelligence ?
    Yes
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Leon said:

    @Benpointer


    You're confident that Alprazolam will be legit? Brave Foolish.

    ++++


    Are you joking? I’ve been buying benzos around the world for 35 years

    It’s legit

    These pills are now so cheap and easy to make there is no point in faking them

    I bought a load last year virtually same place same price. Legit

    I bow to your superior knowledge.

    But why do you need them?
    Very good for jet lag and sometimes just chilling out

    Have to be careful tho. A Xanax habit is an extremely tenacious thing and the withdrawal is one of the worst in the pharmacopeia
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,504
    Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    What does the shock Dutch election result mean, soon after the shock Argentine result? I think it means voters blame incumbents for inflation. That’s bad for the Tories.

    Inflation yes, but I think the real message is that the forces which drove such events as Trump and Brexit (starting all the way back with the 2008 crash) are still playing out.
    In Europe the asylum seeker crisis is allowing haters of foreigners to promote their xenophobia. And the voter is buying it. Surely having decimated places just to the South of Europe since 9/11 such an influx was inevitable.

    Our Rwanda policy is a joke, nonetheless the EU needs to get its act together over offshoring asylum claims from small boat people as much as we do.

    The influx of economic migrants is another reason cutting international development aid is not as clever as a certain brand of Tory believe it to be.

    None of that explains Argentina of course.
    Pretty well, all Western countries have seen living standards grow (if at all), much more slowly since 2000, than was the norm, from
    c.1950. That results in instability.
    Growth is not a given; in 2000 most people in the rich west felt OK so there is no rational ground for suddenly feeling that everyone is living on gruel if we weren't then.

    The bigger instability in the west is another toxic mix. The birthrate within the long term population has plummeted, the west, exemplified by the UK, relies on ever increasing total populations through migration to sustain bits of the basic infrastructure and at the same time has to pretend it is hostile to its own policy for political reasons - hence the boat people nonsense when there isn't anyone to pick fruit and harvest leeks.

    BTW why have we had 'tax cuts' when we are borrowing over £100bn annually?
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    GIN1138 said:

    What does the shock Dutch election result mean, soon after the shock Argentine result? I think it means voters blame incumbents for inflation. That’s bad for the Tories.

    Inflation yes, but I think the real message is that the forces which drove such events as Trump and Brexit (starting all the way back with the 2008 crash) are still playing out.
    In Europe the asylum seeker crisis is allowing haters of foreigners to promote their xenophobia. And the voter is buying it. Surely having decimated places just to the South of Europe since 9/11 such an influx was inevitable.

    Our Rwanda policy is a joke, nonetheless the EU needs to get its act together over offshoring asylum claims from small boat people as much as we do.

    The influx of economic migrants is another reason cutting international development aid is not as clever as a certain brand of Tory believe it to be.

    None of that explains Argentina of course.
    They all come from the same place - government by short termism + SHUT UP ABOUT THE PROBLEMS

    Everything is the universe has upsides and downsides. So when the government sells the Happy Shiny Future, and your life doesn't match, there is this strange tendency not to trust the government. When the entire political class sells the same, the trust in the political class goes down. Strangely.
    Yes, and feeding into that feeling of disconnect is the constant messaging that we are living in a more enlightened and progressive society - but a lot of people are unhappier than they used to be.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,907

    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    The Sam Altman story keeps running. Now it looks like he’s coming back to OpenAI, and the board that fired him have themselves been fired.

    The starting point for the whole mess appears to have been a disagreement (to put it mildly) among the engineers working on ChatGPT. It’s not clear if that disagreement is any closer to being resolved.

    All rather intriguing.

    https://slashdot.org/story/23/11/23/0130213/openai-researchers-warned-board-of-ai-breakthrough-ahead-of-ceo-ouster

    *ahem*

    I did say that the only overriding explanation for the chaos was that OpenAI had got near to - or had achieved - something that could be described as AGI

    Is AGI an acronym for Artificial General Intelligence ?
    Yes
    AWS is the worst one I think, at some point it changed from generally meaning all women shortlist to Amazon Web services and no one bothered to use the lengthier version when (2015?) the general zeitgeist of the acronym changed.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,141

    JamesF said:

    Dear PB regulars - is there anyone here who has been talking about the Dutch election? Is there an old thread I should trawl? Has it had much attention on this site?

    It was covered quite extensively on the previous thread last night.
    Not really. I just went back to look. A few desultry comments
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,319
    TimS said:

    What does the shock Dutch election result mean, soon after the shock Argentine result? I think it means voters blame incumbents for inflation. That’s bad for the Tories.

    Yep. Though historically inflation has tended to be the number one trigger for revolutions and the rise of populism, not just a change of incumbent. It makes people's lives seem out of control.

    Many examples in history of course, with the most recent being the massive food price inflation leading up to the Arab Spring.

    Doesn't bode well for the Tories, but also doesn't bode hugely well for Biden.
    In Argentina, the traditional parties have made things steadily worse for decades. The country is in a truly terrible state - major infrastructure failure (grid goes down, doesn't come back, in large areas) is entirely possible.

    The Netherlands is different, of course, but here the perception from the voters is that The Usual Suspects have ambled along in the kind of incompetence that we see here. They have a benefits scandal, for example, that matches the Post Office disaster in many ways. And effected many thousands of people.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_childcare_benefits_scandal
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    Totally O/T. I went on the London Cable Car yesterday, it is fantastic and an absolute bargain at £12 return, its much better than the London Eye with amazing views.

    https://tfl.gov.uk/modes/london-cable-car/

    Really? The views are pretty terrible IMHO, unless you enjoy a hawk's eye perspective over the Euromix concrete depot and assorted generic new build residential towers destined for Far East property portfolios. The whole thing is utterly pointless.
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