“New research from the University of Bath’s School of Management finds that higher cognitive ability was strongly linked to voting to Remain in the 2016 UK referendum on European Union Membership.
“The study shows that cognitive skills including memory, verbal fluency, fluid reasoning and numerical reasoning, were correlated with how people decided to vote.”
Sure, but it is a very likely consequence of our demographics. There are still over 100k vacancies in the NHS, 150k in the care sector, 50k in the construction sector, about 1m in total.
Whatever govt is in charge, whatever people vote for I would expect us to get something like another 3-7m net migration over the next decade. I suggest we should plan for that now and build rather than listen to politicians who say they can stop it, but don't and then moan about them.
I can remember when a forecast of 70 million by 2030 looked a bit mad, yet we must be right on the cusp of that now, and 80 million by 2050 sounded impossible.
The amount of EVERYTHING we need to build to keep up with demand is insane, and no party is serious about it.
A thought experiment, a little broad brush.
Imagine we had zero net immigration, which at the moment means the total population would be pretty much static.
Currently we have around 2.7 million people directly employed working in construction, and probably a multiple of that in the supply chain. Currently they aren't quite building housing as fast as immigrants are arriving to fill it, never mind all the infrastructure to go with it.
But if the population was static, we could pretty much wind down house building and infrastructure construction without negative consequences. How many people would that release into the economy? 2 million? 5 million?
Currently we just have a Ponzi scheme where we keep importing people to do stuff, but in the long term each person we import actually consumes more than they contribute. This is also true of the general population, and some point there is going have to be a painful adjustment - it just becomes more painful the bigger we blow the bubble.
The only viable long term solution is net zero migration, the sooner we realise that and act on it the better.
Incidentally, if you look at the government borrowing figures, we're quite close to running a primary surplus - I.e. the entire deficit is the cost of servicing the government debt. If we were the Greeks, we'd probably just default...
Your plan only works if 85 year olds are as productive and draw similar state resources as 25 year olds. They aren't and they don't.
No - what you want is a situation where the productivity of those who aren't retired/sick/etc pays for the whole thing. As a stable proportion of the population.
There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.
The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.
Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.
I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.
Not looking forward to this renewal.
Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
Bugger.
I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.
May have to reduce the footwear budget.
Truly the end of days.
The cost of living crisis is real.
For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?
That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on. We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
TSE is just trolling, but the wider issue is that the economic statistics are not being reflected in most people’s lives.
Inflation has been very high for two years now, pay rises haven’t kept up, and the specific inflation on those on low or middle incomes is much higher, them spending more money on bills and food.
Ronald Reagan got it right, and Starmer would do well to copy him next year. Do you feel better off than you did five years ago?
If they want to copy their recent style of attack ad - “Do you feel better off than you did five years ago? Rishi Sunak does.”
Surely: "Do you feel better off than you did thirteen years ago?"
Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago. I’m getting paid twice as much now as I was then.
Narrow the window and narrow the focus. Five years ago, you voted for this lot; has your life got better or worse since then?
Most people haven't fucked off to Dubai though
I was in Dubai 13 years ago.
So when you say "Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago." you are talking about yourself. Great! You are not most people in the UK...
Here we go...
(People climbing career ladders may well be better off, I rather doubt that is a majority.)
Real median household incomes are 11% higher than in 2010. I expect that the difference between the two reflects that in 2010, unemployment was much higher, and employment significantly lower, than now, so there are fewer jobless households.
19.2% of households were jobless in 2010, compared to 13.7% now, so that should explain the rise in real household incomes.
The lived experience for a household which was working in 2010 and is still working now will not be the dramatic gains that Sandpit is assuming...
Ultimately, it's an average, and that always includes people doing better and worse than average.
The key thing is that we even need to have this conversation, because overall we're no more prosperous now than a decade ago. I am, but mostly due to not paying nursery fees any more.
But given the sluggish GDP growth and the lack of improvement in productivity, what did we expect?
There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.
The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.
Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.
I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.
Not looking forward to this renewal.
Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
Bugger.
I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.
May have to reduce the footwear budget.
Truly the end of days.
The cost of living crisis is real.
For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?
That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on. We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
TSE is just trolling, but the wider issue is that the economic statistics are not being reflected in most people’s lives.
Inflation has been very high for two years now, pay rises haven’t kept up, and the specific inflation on those on low or middle incomes is much higher, them spending more money on bills and food.
Ronald Reagan got it right, and Starmer would do well to copy him next year. Do you feel better off than you did five years ago?
If they want to copy their recent style of attack ad - “Do you feel better off than you did five years ago? Rishi Sunak does.”
Surely: "Do you feel better off than you did thirteen years ago?"
Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago. I’m getting paid twice as much now as I was then.
Narrow the window and narrow the focus. Five years ago, you voted for this lot; has your life got better or worse since then?
Most people haven't fucked off to Dubai though
I was in Dubai 13 years ago.
Then vote for the incumbent government at the next Dubai election.
Sooner or later people might come to see that 'managed decline' is not an insult or evidence of lack of ambition but rather a valid stretch target if 'managed' means competence in government and protecting the less well off and 'decline' means relative to the developing world rather than absolute or relative to our peers. I'm already there. I'd vote for it in a heartbeat. In fact I will be next year. I'm hoping it's what we get from SKS and Labour over the next decade or so.
Forget whatever the growth numbers for developing countries are (I thought this was silly point by Rachael Reeves yesterday among a reasonable response to the budget).
Sub 2% growth is decline in standards, you need at least 2% growth just to stand still with inflation, aging population, ability to redevelop your infrastructure etc etc etc. It is why we are in this position of ever higher taxes while everything is getting worse.
OBR forecasts for every year into the future is sub 2%.
That's what I mean. If we underperform our peers it's a failure. But if we don't, even if our performance is sluggish relative to previous times, then it isn't. There's no reason to think we can or should be an outlier on the upside. There's nothing special about us. A Fund Manager who matches the market over their career, that's a decent Fund Manager and it's what we should aspire to. Sluggish but comparable (to our peers) economic growth would be ok. We should be able to manage this because there's nothing especially bad about us either. And if it's combined with competence and integrity in government and a more equitable distribution of wealth and opportunity, it would be more than ok, it would count as success in my book.
"If we underperform our peers it's a failure."
That is the political stick that is used by all sides to beat one another. We didn't grow as much as Germany, no we grew more than France, etc etc etc. We saw this just yesterday from both sides.
The crux of which is then leads to we aren't as prosperous society as our peers, so we can't afford what they have. That's very difficult sell to the electorate especially when it comes to say but Germany have better hospitals, they live longer etc.
Agreed you don't trumpet 'average economic performance!' as the aspiration. The electorate need a bit of a tickle. But if the UK government can in practice deliver this, and a fairer more equal society, that will be a good government imo. One of the best for a long time. It's what I'll be voting for next year.
There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.
The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.
Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.
I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.
Not looking forward to this renewal.
Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
Bugger.
I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.
May have to reduce the footwear budget.
Truly the end of days.
The cost of living crisis is real.
For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?
That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on. We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
TSE is just trolling, but the wider issue is that the economic statistics are not being reflected in most people’s lives.
Inflation has been very high for two years now, pay rises haven’t kept up, and the specific inflation on those on low or middle incomes is much higher, them spending more money on bills and food.
Ronald Reagan got it right, and Starmer would do well to copy him next year. Do you feel better off than you did five years ago?
If they want to copy their recent style of attack ad - “Do you feel better off than you did five years ago? Rishi Sunak does.”
Surely: "Do you feel better off than you did thirteen years ago?"
Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago. I’m getting paid twice as much now as I was then.
Narrow the window and narrow the focus. Five years ago, you voted for this lot; has your life got better or worse since then?
Most people haven't fucked off to Dubai though
I was in Dubai 13 years ago.
Then vote for the incumbent government at the next Dubai election.
There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.
The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.
Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.
I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.
Not looking forward to this renewal.
Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
Bugger.
I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.
May have to reduce the footwear budget.
Truly the end of days.
The cost of living crisis is real.
For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?
That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on. We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
TSE is just trolling, but the wider issue is that the economic statistics are not being reflected in most people’s lives.
Inflation has been very high for two years now, pay rises haven’t kept up, and the specific inflation on those on low or middle incomes is much higher, them spending more money on bills and food.
Ronald Reagan got it right, and Starmer would do well to copy him next year. Do you feel better off than you did five years ago?
If they want to copy their recent style of attack ad - “Do you feel better off than you did five years ago? Rishi Sunak does.”
Surely: "Do you feel better off than you did thirteen years ago?"
Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago. I’m getting paid twice as much now as I was then.
Narrow the window and narrow the focus. Five years ago, you voted for this lot; has your life got better or worse since then?
Most people haven't fucked off to Dubai though
I was in Dubai 13 years ago.
Then vote for the incumbent government at the next Dubai election.
Sooner or later people might come to see that 'managed decline' is not an insult or evidence of lack of ambition but rather a valid stretch target if 'managed' means competence in government and protecting the less well off and 'decline' means relative to the developing world rather than absolute or relative to our peers. I'm already there. I'd vote for it in a heartbeat. In fact I will be next year. I'm hoping it's what we get from SKS and Labour over the next decade or so.
Forget whatever the growth numbers for developing countries are (I thought this was silly point by Rachael Reeves yesterday among a reasonable response to the budget).
Sub 2% growth is decline in standards, you need at least 2% growth just to stand still with inflation, aging population, ability to redevelop your infrastructure etc etc etc. It is why we are in this position of ever higher taxes while everything is getting worse.
OBR forecasts for every year into the future is sub 2%.
That's what I mean. If we underperform our peers it's a failure. But if we don't, even if our performance is sluggish relative to previous times, then it isn't. There's no reason to think we can or should be an outlier on the upside. There's nothing special about us. A Fund Manager who matches the market over their career, that's a decent Fund Manager and it's what we should aspire to. Sluggish but comparable (to our peers) economic growth would be ok. We should be able to manage this because there's nothing especially bad about us either. And if it's combined with competence and integrity in government and a more equitable distribution of wealth and opportunity, it would be more than ok, it would count as success in my book.
We spend way too much political energy on GDP. What will actually make us happier? Health, homes, social connection. Loads we can do on all three, and far easier to achieve than getting GDP growth to a consistent 4%.
I actually think GDP is a close proxy for things we should care about. GDP is all the income in the economy - that is all of the wages and profits, so a higher GDP means households with more money to spend and businesses that are more profitable and so willing to hire and invest - and more potential tax revenue for the government too. GDP is all the spending in the economy, so it is all of the money households spend on stuff they need to live happy and convenient lives, all the money the government spends on health care, education and other public services, all the money businesses are investing to create future prosperity. And GDP is all the output in the economy, so it is everything we produce, all the goods and services we rely on here in the UK or we sell abroad. In other words, GDP is bloody important. And a big part of our problems right now is that GDP has stopped growing like it used to.
There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.
The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.
Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.
I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.
Not looking forward to this renewal.
Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
Bugger.
I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.
May have to reduce the footwear budget.
Truly the end of days.
The cost of living crisis is real.
For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?
That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on. We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
TSE is just trolling, but the wider issue is that the economic statistics are not being reflected in most people’s lives.
Inflation has been very high for two years now, pay rises haven’t kept up, and the specific inflation on those on low or middle incomes is much higher, them spending more money on bills and food.
Ronald Reagan got it right, and Starmer would do well to copy him next year. Do you feel better off than you did five years ago?
If they want to copy their recent style of attack ad - “Do you feel better off than you did five years ago? Rishi Sunak does.”
Surely: "Do you feel better off than you did thirteen years ago?"
Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago. I’m getting paid twice as much now as I was then.
Narrow the window and narrow the focus. Five years ago, you voted for this lot; has your life got better or worse since then?
Most people haven't fucked off to Dubai though
I was in Dubai 13 years ago.
Then vote for the incumbent government at the next Dubai election.
There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.
The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.
Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.
I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.
Not looking forward to this renewal.
Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
Bugger.
I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.
May have to reduce the footwear budget.
Truly the end of days.
The cost of living crisis is real.
For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?
That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on. We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
TSE is just trolling, but the wider issue is that the economic statistics are not being reflected in most people’s lives.
Inflation has been very high for two years now, pay rises haven’t kept up, and the specific inflation on those on low or middle incomes is much higher, them spending more money on bills and food.
Ronald Reagan got it right, and Starmer would do well to copy him next year. Do you feel better off than you did five years ago?
If they want to copy their recent style of attack ad - “Do you feel better off than you did five years ago? Rishi Sunak does.”
Surely: "Do you feel better off than you did thirteen years ago?"
Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago. I’m getting paid twice as much now as I was then.
Narrow the window and narrow the focus. Five years ago, you voted for this lot; has your life got better or worse since then?
Most people haven't fucked off to Dubai though
I was in Dubai 13 years ago.
Then vote for the incumbent government at the next Dubai election.
“New research from the University of Bath’s School of Management finds that higher cognitive ability was strongly linked to voting to Remain in the 2016 UK referendum on European Union Membership.
“The study shows that cognitive skills including memory, verbal fluency, fluid reasoning and numerical reasoning, were correlated with how people decided to vote.”
Another of those 'research to confirm the obvious' exercises that Unis do from time to time.
Next up, "Do tall men need longer than average trousers?"
Sooner or later people might come to see that 'managed decline' is not an insult or evidence of lack of ambition but rather a valid stretch target if 'managed' means competence in government and protecting the less well off and 'decline' means relative to the developing world rather than absolute or relative to our peers. I'm already there. I'd vote for it in a heartbeat. In fact I will be next year. I'm hoping it's what we get from SKS and Labour over the next decade or so.
Forget whatever the growth numbers for developing countries are (I thought this was silly point by Rachael Reeves yesterday among a reasonable response to the budget).
Sub 2% growth is decline in standards, you need at least 2% growth just to stand still with inflation, aging population, ability to redevelop your infrastructure etc etc etc. It is why we are in this position of ever higher taxes while everything is getting worse.
OBR forecasts for every year into the future is sub 2%.
That's what I mean. If we underperform our peers it's a failure. But if we don't, even if our performance is sluggish relative to previous times, then it isn't. There's no reason to think we can or should be an outlier on the upside. There's nothing special about us. A Fund Manager who matches the market over their career, that's a decent Fund Manager and it's what we should aspire to. Sluggish but comparable (to our peers) economic growth would be ok. We should be able to manage this because there's nothing especially bad about us either. And if it's combined with competence and integrity in government and a more equitable distribution of wealth and opportunity, it would be more than ok, it would count as success in my book.
"If we underperform our peers it's a failure."
That is the political stick that is used by all sides to beat one another. We didn't grow as much as Germany, no we grew more than France, etc etc etc. We saw this just yesterday from both sides.
The crux of which is then leads to we aren't as prosperous society as our peers, so we can't afford what they have. That's very difficult sell to the electorate especially when it comes to say but Germany have better hospitals, they live longer etc.
Agreed you don't trumpet 'average economic performance!' as the aspiration. The electorate need a bit of a tickle. But if the UK government can in practice deliver this, and a fairer more equal society, that will be a good government imo. One of the best for a long time. It's what I'll be voting for next year.
Two slightly orthogonal things- creating wealth and turning that wealth into human thriving. It's hard to do the second without the first, which is why we don't have states run by hippies. It's possible to do the first without the second, but grim- worst bits of the USA, perhaps?
Right now, I'm not convinced that the UK is doing that well at either. Though it could be worse. A lot worse.
Sure, but it is a very likely consequence of our demographics. There are still over 100k vacancies in the NHS, 150k in the care sector, 50k in the construction sector, about 1m in total.
Whatever govt is in charge, whatever people vote for I would expect us to get something like another 3-7m net migration over the next decade. I suggest we should plan for that now and build rather than listen to politicians who say they can stop it, but don't and then moan about them.
I can remember when a forecast of 70 million by 2030 looked a bit mad, yet we must be right on the cusp of that now, and 80 million by 2050 sounded impossible.
The amount of EVERYTHING we need to build to keep up with demand is insane, and no party is serious about it.
A thought experiment, a little broad brush.
Imagine we had zero net immigration, which at the moment means the total population would be pretty much static.
Currently we have around 2.7 million people directly employed working in construction, and probably a multiple of that in the supply chain. Currently they aren't quite building housing as fast as immigrants are arriving to fill it, never mind all the infrastructure to go with it.
But if the population was static, we could pretty much wind down house building and infrastructure construction without negative consequences. How many people would that release into the economy? 2 million? 5 million?
Currently we just have a Ponzi scheme where we keep importing people to do stuff, but in the long term each person we import actually consumes more than they contribute. This is also true of the general population, and some point there is going have to be a painful adjustment - it just becomes more painful the bigger we blow the bubble.
The only viable long term solution is net zero migration, the sooner we realise that and act on it the better.
Incidentally, if you look at the government borrowing figures, we're quite close to running a primary surplus - I.e. the entire deficit is the cost of servicing the government debt. If we were the Greeks, we'd probably just default...
Your plan only works if 85 year olds are as productive and draw similar state resources as 25 year olds. They aren't and they don't.
Your plan only works if you have a population distribution with far more 25 year olds per 85 year old than you would naturally get. You can achieve this by massive levels of immigration, but unless your plan includes shooting them all at age 60 or something it won't work in the long term. Your 25 year olds will in turn become 85 year olds and you'll have to import even more 25 year olds a year. At some point we have to stop. Ten years ago would have been the best possible time to have done this, today is going to be the second best time. Waiting till the population is 80 or 90 million only makes it worse when it happens.
We also need to face up to the fact that we are directing enormous amounts of resources at these immigrants - there are probably 10 million people employed in the construction supply chain which is currently effectively being used entirely to provide homes for immigrants. If would be better in the long term if those 10 million were filling the vacancies the immigrants come to fill rather than just working on building homes for them.
“New research from the University of Bath’s School of Management finds that higher cognitive ability was strongly linked to voting to Remain in the 2016 UK referendum on European Union Membership.
“The study shows that cognitive skills including memory, verbal fluency, fluid reasoning and numerical reasoning, were correlated with how people decided to vote.”
Sure, but it is a very likely consequence of our demographics. There are still over 100k vacancies in the NHS, 150k in the care sector, 50k in the construction sector, about 1m in total.
Whatever govt is in charge, whatever people vote for I would expect us to get something like another 3-7m net migration over the next decade. I suggest we should plan for that now and build rather than listen to politicians who say they can stop it, but don't and then moan about them.
I can remember when a forecast of 70 million by 2030 looked a bit mad, yet we must be right on the cusp of that now, and 80 million by 2050 sounded impossible.
The amount of EVERYTHING we need to build to keep up with demand is insane, and no party is serious about it.
A thought experiment, a little broad brush.
Imagine we had zero net immigration, which at the moment means the total population would be pretty much static.
Currently we have around 2.7 million people directly employed working in construction, and probably a multiple of that in the supply chain. Currently they aren't quite building housing as fast as immigrants are arriving to fill it, never mind all the infrastructure to go with it.
But if the population was static, we could pretty much wind down house building and infrastructure construction without negative consequences. How many people would that release into the economy? 2 million? 5 million?
Currently we just have a Ponzi scheme where we keep importing people to do stuff, but in the long term each person we import actually consumes more than they contribute. This is also true of the general population, and some point there is going have to be a painful adjustment - it just becomes more painful the bigger we blow the bubble.
The only viable long term solution is net zero migration, the sooner we realise that and act on it the better.
Incidentally, if you look at the government borrowing figures, we're quite close to running a primary surplus - I.e. the entire deficit is the cost of servicing the government debt. If we were the Greeks, we'd probably just default...
Your plan only works if 85 year olds are as productive and draw similar state resources as 25 year olds. They aren't and they don't.
No - what you want is a situation where the productivity of those who aren't retired/sick/etc pays for the whole thing. As a stable proportion of the population.
Well then don't start with our unstable demographics.....
Among the remarkable features of this nonsense is that it is an egregious example of a common interviewer fail. Questions are frequently too long, too diffuse, incorporate grandstanding statements, and/or ask several things at once.
(Another failing it to simplistically angle for the 'gotcha' moment even when you are obviously not going to get it, and when a gentler approach might get a better harvest).
Framing questions to be precise, exactly framed, penetrating and tricky to avoid should be lesson 1.
BTW Evan Davies and Amol Rajan are better than average.
To be honest it screamed Chris Morris at his finest. Are we sure it is not a spoof? Now I am going to have to watch a lot of “the day today” on you tube.
McLean had to 'paper over the cracks' between academics and civil servants
Prof Dame Angela McLean said there were times she had to “paper over the cracks” when difficulties arose between academics and civil servants.
Asked if differences in approach caused any difficulties during the pandemic, the Government’s chief scientific adviser said: “There were several occasions when I had to paper over the cracks, I would say.
“It was mostly that an academic on SPI-M-O (Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational) had told a civil servant why they were wrong in some way that the civil servant felt was rude.”
“I was in contact with people saying ‘I’m sorry, that was upsetting for you. They didn’t mean to be rude to you personally. What they were talking about was your work’,” Dame Angela said.
-----
No wonder they thought Dominic Raab looking at them funny was bullying.
Some people seem to subscribe to the idea that telling them they did something wrong is bad, because it hurts their feelings.
Related is the idea that telling some that what they think is true, isn't. Because it hurts their feelings.
Also, this was a fast moving evolving highly stressful scenario. Nobody really knew the truth, there was no established practice. Everybody was trying to make it up as they went along as best they could.
But the man from the university told me I was wrong....sobs.....but my line manager told me last week my work was fine....i don't understand.....
One of the valuable lessons from working in academia is learning how to cope with being told you're wrong on a regular basis.
And learning both how to accept that when you are wrong and argue it when you are not.
Hmm, one wonders where the civil servants went,. and what degree they did.
Even as an undergraduate I was, sometimes emphatically, told when I was wrong - or on occasion not even wrong. Extremely useful.
The balance has significantly shifted in academia these days. Now students are treated much more like customers, there is far more placation and much less desire to upset anybody. The students are much more likely to raise complaints when they deem that they have been wronged i.e. which can mean just been told they were wrong.
I think the directness is now saved more for interactions with other academics. At least that is my observation.
The balance has shifted, yes. This was the result of Conservative (and New Labour) neoliberal policies that said public services should be more customer-focused.
The theory that the problem with public services is that they are *too customer focused* is novel.
Universities are unique in that students can choose where to go, and take their Government backed loans with them, in a way that hospital patients and police service users cannot.
We could always privatise the police. I believe these guys are available:
To be fair to OmniConsumerProducts, one of their product lines in the Policing space *did* turn out to be World Beating.
I would be broadly in favour of liberalisation of policing. Certainly I think there should be two overlapping strands of policing, sheriffs and police, so people could use their preferred choice. You would get very little twatting about on Twitter or bootboy antics when you look at a police officer funny if they were liable to lose their funding any day to the sheriffs department.
“New research from the University of Bath’s School of Management finds that higher cognitive ability was strongly linked to voting to Remain in the 2016 UK referendum on European Union Membership.
“The study shows that cognitive skills including memory, verbal fluency, fluid reasoning and numerical reasoning, were correlated with how people decided to vote.”
Democracy is counting heads, not weighing them. The point of a referendum is not to choose the best outcome but to obtain consent of the governed. There wasn't a "no stupid people" voting clause. If there was, the only person voting would have been me. 😃
There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.
The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.
Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.
I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.
Not looking forward to this renewal.
Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
Bugger.
I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.
May have to reduce the footwear budget.
Truly the end of days.
The cost of living crisis is real.
For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?
That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on. We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
TSE is just trolling, but the wider issue is that the economic statistics are not being reflected in most people’s lives.
Inflation has been very high for two years now, pay rises haven’t kept up, and the specific inflation on those on low or middle incomes is much higher, them spending more money on bills and food.
Ronald Reagan got it right, and Starmer would do well to copy him next year. Do you feel better off than you did five years ago?
If they want to copy their recent style of attack ad - “Do you feel better off than you did five years ago? Rishi Sunak does.”
Surely: "Do you feel better off than you did thirteen years ago?"
Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago. I’m getting paid twice as much now as I was then.
Narrow the window and narrow the focus. Five years ago, you voted for this lot; has your life got better or worse since then?
Most people haven't fucked off to Dubai though
I was in Dubai 13 years ago.
Then vote for the incumbent government at the next Dubai election.
There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.
The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.
Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.
I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.
Not looking forward to this renewal.
Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
Bugger.
I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.
May have to reduce the footwear budget.
Truly the end of days.
The cost of living crisis is real.
For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?
That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on. We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
TSE is just trolling, but the wider issue is that the economic statistics are not being reflected in most people’s lives.
Inflation has been very high for two years now, pay rises haven’t kept up, and the specific inflation on those on low or middle incomes is much higher, them spending more money on bills and food.
Ronald Reagan got it right, and Starmer would do well to copy him next year. Do you feel better off than you did five years ago?
If they want to copy their recent style of attack ad - “Do you feel better off than you did five years ago? Rishi Sunak does.”
Surely: "Do you feel better off than you did thirteen years ago?"
Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago. I’m getting paid twice as much now as I was then.
Narrow the window and narrow the focus. Five years ago, you voted for this lot; has your life got better or worse since then?
Most people haven't fucked off to Dubai though
I was in Dubai 13 years ago.
So when you say "Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago." you are talking about yourself. Great! You are not most people in the UK...
Here we go...
(People climbing career ladders may well be better off, I rather doubt that is a majority.)
Real median household incomes are 11% higher than in 2010. I expect that the difference between the two reflects that in 2010, unemployment was much higher, and employment significantly lower, than now, so there are fewer jobless households.
19.2% of households were jobless in 2010, compared to 13.7% now, so that should explain the rise in real household incomes.
The lived experience for a household which was working in 2010 and is still working now will not be the dramatic gains that Sandpit is assuming...
Ultimately, it's an average, and that always includes people doing better and worse than average.
The key thing is that we even need to have this conversation, because overall we're no more prosperous now than a decade ago. I am, but mostly due to not paying nursery fees any more.
But given the sluggish GDP growth and the lack of improvement in productivity, what did we expect?
Despite the stats showing low productivity, most Brits think they work their tits off. So either we are all deluded, or we are being busy fools.
For a large number of people their expectations of the economy aren't all that great. Have a job which isn't too dull, earn enough money to not be worried about bills, be able to have some nice things and a holiday.
The problem for the Tories is that for so many people it doesn't matter how hard and for how long they work, they are broke. Not "I don't have enough money to pay for that new £3k pair of TSE-signature loafers" broke, I mean "I don't have enough money to have anything left at the end of the month" broke.
Combine that with public services being broken and infrastructure crumbing around us, is it any wonder that people want to punish them?
Sooner or later people might come to see that 'managed decline' is not an insult or evidence of lack of ambition but rather a valid stretch target if 'managed' means competence in government and protecting the less well off and 'decline' means relative to the developing world rather than absolute or relative to our peers. I'm already there. I'd vote for it in a heartbeat. In fact I will be next year. I'm hoping it's what we get from SKS and Labour over the next decade or so.
Forget whatever the growth numbers for developing countries are (I thought this was silly point by Rachael Reeves yesterday among a reasonable response to the budget).
Sub 2% growth is decline in standards, you need at least 2% growth just to stand still with inflation, aging population, ability to redevelop your infrastructure etc etc etc. It is why we are in this position of ever higher taxes while everything is getting worse.
OBR forecasts for every year into the future is sub 2%.
That's what I mean. If we underperform our peers it's a failure. But if we don't, even if our performance is sluggish relative to previous times, then it isn't. There's no reason to think we can or should be an outlier on the upside. There's nothing special about us. A Fund Manager who matches the market over their career, that's a decent Fund Manager and it's what we should aspire to. Sluggish but comparable (to our peers) economic growth would be ok. We should be able to manage this because there's nothing especially bad about us either. And if it's combined with competence and integrity in government and a more equitable distribution of wealth and opportunity, it would be more than ok, it would count as success in my book.
We spend way too much political energy on GDP. What will actually make us happier? Health, homes, social connection. Loads we can do on all three, and far easier to achieve than getting GDP growth to a consistent 4%.
I actually think GDP is a close proxy for things we should care about. GDP is all the income in the economy - that is all of the wages and profits, so a higher GDP means households with more money to spend and businesses that are more profitable and so willing to hire and invest - and more potential tax revenue for the government too. GDP is all the spending in the economy, so it is all of the money households spend on stuff they need to live happy and convenient lives, all the money the government spends on health care, education and other public services, all the money businesses are investing to create future prosperity. And GDP is all the output in the economy, so it is everything we produce, all the goods and services we rely on here in the UK or we sell abroad. In other words, GDP is bloody important. And a big part of our problems right now is that GDP has stopped growing like it used to.
Of course GDP is important, but that does not mean humans can't attach too much (or too little) priority to it. The GDP obsession in Western politics combined with our (nearly all parties across Western "liberal" democracies) inability to deliver it for the last decade or two simply leads to lack of faith and trust in government, hence the rise of the populist right.
If a party for example made their number one pledge as reducing obesity by 10% over the life of a parliament, I think that is perfectly achievable and then in the medium run it does also improve productivity, and in the long run reduces healthcare and social care costs.
“New research from the University of Bath’s School of Management finds that higher cognitive ability was strongly linked to voting to Remain in the 2016 UK referendum on European Union Membership.
“The study shows that cognitive skills including memory, verbal fluency, fluid reasoning and numerical reasoning, were correlated with how people decided to vote.”
Another of those 'research to confirm the obvious' exercises that Unis do from time to time.
Next up, "Do tall men need longer than average trousers?"
This is a deeply thick piece of research, conceived by, designed by, conducted by and appealing to deeply thick people. 'Those people who disagree with me are stooooopid, fnar fnar fnar' - the smell of *actual* stupid reeks off this. No nuance, no intellectual curiosity.
There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.
The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.
Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.
I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.
Not looking forward to this renewal.
Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
Bugger.
I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.
May have to reduce the footwear budget.
Truly the end of days.
The cost of living crisis is real.
For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?
That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on. We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
TSE is just trolling, but the wider issue is that the economic statistics are not being reflected in most people’s lives.
Inflation has been very high for two years now, pay rises haven’t kept up, and the specific inflation on those on low or middle incomes is much higher, them spending more money on bills and food.
Ronald Reagan got it right, and Starmer would do well to copy him next year. Do you feel better off than you did five years ago?
If they want to copy their recent style of attack ad - “Do you feel better off than you did five years ago? Rishi Sunak does.”
Surely: "Do you feel better off than you did thirteen years ago?"
Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago. I’m getting paid twice as much now as I was then.
Narrow the window and narrow the focus. Five years ago, you voted for this lot; has your life got better or worse since then?
Most people haven't fucked off to Dubai though
I was in Dubai 13 years ago.
So when you say "Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago." you are talking about yourself. Great! You are not most people in the UK...
Here we go...
(People climbing career ladders may well be better off, I rather doubt that is a majority.)
Real median household incomes are 11% higher than in 2010. I expect that the difference between the two reflects that in 2010, unemployment was much higher, and employment significantly lower, than now, so there are fewer jobless households.
19.2% of households were jobless in 2010, compared to 13.7% now, so that should explain the rise in real household incomes.
The lived experience for a household which was working in 2010 and is still working now will not be the dramatic gains that Sandpit is assuming...
Ultimately, it's an average, and that always includes people doing better and worse than average.
The key thing is that we even need to have this conversation, because overall we're no more prosperous now than a decade ago. I am, but mostly due to not paying nursery fees any more.
But given the sluggish GDP growth and the lack of improvement in productivity, what did we expect?
Despite the stats showing low productivity, most Brits think they work their tits off. So either we are all deluded, or we are being busy fools.
For a large number of people their expectations of the economy aren't all that great. Have a job which isn't too dull, earn enough money to not be worried about bills, be able to have some nice things and a holiday.
The problem for the Tories is that for so many people it doesn't matter how hard and for how long they work, they are broke. Not "I don't have enough money to pay for that new £3k pair of TSE-signature loafers" broke, I mean "I don't have enough money to have anything left at the end of the month" broke.
Combine that with public services being broken and infrastructure crumbing around us, is it any wonder that people want to punish them?
I think its both deluded about how hard they work and lots of unproductive busy work / lack of investment.
“New research from the University of Bath’s School of Management finds that higher cognitive ability was strongly linked to voting to Remain in the 2016 UK referendum on European Union Membership.
“The study shows that cognitive skills including memory, verbal fluency, fluid reasoning and numerical reasoning, were correlated with how people decided to vote.”
I have no idea what they make of this, though the implications are fairly clear. Suppose however that it was also discovered that voting Remain also was linked to, for example, having significant inherited wealth, being privately educated, owning several homes, having a high carbon footprint, using the word 'pleb' about the WWC, using IHT avoidance schemes, thinking that the opinions of White Van Man didn't count, and attending black tie dinners....I wonder what conclusions should be drawn.
BTW the leaders of the Remain campaign may also have high cognitive skills, but they still ran a campaign of moral and political ineptitude that continues to beggar the imagination.
Sooner or later people might come to see that 'managed decline' is not an insult or evidence of lack of ambition but rather a valid stretch target if 'managed' means competence in government and protecting the less well off and 'decline' means relative to the developing world rather than absolute or relative to our peers. I'm already there. I'd vote for it in a heartbeat. In fact I will be next year. I'm hoping it's what we get from SKS and Labour over the next decade or so.
Forget whatever the growth numbers for developing countries are (I thought this was silly point by Rachael Reeves yesterday among a reasonable response to the budget).
Sub 2% growth is decline in standards, you need at least 2% growth just to stand still with inflation, aging population, ability to redevelop your infrastructure etc etc etc. It is why we are in this position of ever higher taxes while everything is getting worse.
OBR forecasts for every year into the future is sub 2%.
That's what I mean. If we underperform our peers it's a failure. But if we don't, even if our performance is sluggish relative to previous times, then it isn't. There's no reason to think we can or should be an outlier on the upside. There's nothing special about us. A Fund Manager who matches the market over their career, that's a decent Fund Manager and it's what we should aspire to. Sluggish but comparable (to our peers) economic growth would be ok. We should be able to manage this because there's nothing especially bad about us either. And if it's combined with competence and integrity in government and a more equitable distribution of wealth and opportunity, it would be more than ok, it would count as success in my book.
We spend way too much political energy on GDP. What will actually make us happier? Health, homes, social connection. Loads we can do on all three, and far easier to achieve than getting GDP growth to a consistent 4%.
I actually think GDP is a close proxy for things we should care about. GDP is all the income in the economy - that is all of the wages and profits, so a higher GDP means households with more money to spend and businesses that are more profitable and so willing to hire and invest - and more potential tax revenue for the government too. GDP is all the spending in the economy, so it is all of the money households spend on stuff they need to live happy and convenient lives, all the money the government spends on health care, education and other public services, all the money businesses are investing to create future prosperity. And GDP is all the output in the economy, so it is everything we produce, all the goods and services we rely on here in the UK or we sell abroad. In other words, GDP is bloody important. And a big part of our problems right now is that GDP has stopped growing like it used to.
Of course GDP is important, but that does not mean humans can't attach too much (or too little) priority to it. The GDP obsession in Western politics combined with our (nearly all parties across Western "liberal" democracies) inability to deliver it for the last decade or two simply leads to lack of faith and trust in government, hence the rise of the populist right.
If a party for example made their number one pledge as reducing obesity by 10% over the life of a parliament, I think that is perfectly achievable and then in the medium run it does also improve productivity, and in the long run reduces healthcare and social care costs.
If the slimmer 10% can't replace the otherwise increase in health and social care costs doesn't GDP decline with their waistlines?
Sooner or later people might come to see that 'managed decline' is not an insult or evidence of lack of ambition but rather a valid stretch target if 'managed' means competence in government and protecting the less well off and 'decline' means relative to the developing world rather than absolute or relative to our peers. I'm already there. I'd vote for it in a heartbeat. In fact I will be next year. I'm hoping it's what we get from SKS and Labour over the next decade or so.
Forget whatever the growth numbers for developing countries are (I thought this was silly point by Rachael Reeves yesterday among a reasonable response to the budget).
Sub 2% growth is decline in standards, you need at least 2% growth just to stand still with inflation, aging population, ability to redevelop your infrastructure etc etc etc. It is why we are in this position of ever higher taxes while everything is getting worse.
OBR forecasts for every year into the future is sub 2%.
That's what I mean. If we underperform our peers it's a failure. But if we don't, even if our performance is sluggish relative to previous times, then it isn't. There's no reason to think we can or should be an outlier on the upside. There's nothing special about us. A Fund Manager who matches the market over their career, that's a decent Fund Manager and it's what we should aspire to. Sluggish but comparable (to our peers) economic growth would be ok. We should be able to manage this because there's nothing especially bad about us either. And if it's combined with competence and integrity in government and a more equitable distribution of wealth and opportunity, it would be more than ok, it would count as success in my book.
"If we underperform our peers it's a failure."
That is the political stick that is used by all sides to beat one another. We didn't grow as much as Germany, no we grew more than France, etc etc etc. We saw this just yesterday from both sides.
The crux of which is then leads to we aren't as prosperous society as our peers, so we can't afford what they have. That's very difficult sell to the electorate especially when it comes to say but Germany have better hospitals, they live longer etc.
Agreed you don't trumpet 'average economic performance!' as the aspiration. The electorate need a bit of a tickle. But if the UK government can in practice deliver this, and a fairer more equal society, that will be a good government imo. One of the best for a long time. It's what I'll be voting for next year.
Two slightly orthogonal things- creating wealth and turning that wealth into human thriving. It's hard to do the second without the first, which is why we don't have states run by hippies. It's possible to do the first without the second, but grim- worst bits of the USA, perhaps?
Right now, I'm not convinced that the UK is doing that well at either. Though it could be worse. A lot worse.
I reckon if government can do the business on Health, Schools, Transport and Housing, that will feed through to both aggregate wealth creation and a more equal distribution of it.
So there's my submission for today's Easier Said Than Done award. Let's see if anybody can beat it.
McLean had to 'paper over the cracks' between academics and civil servants
Prof Dame Angela McLean said there were times she had to “paper over the cracks” when difficulties arose between academics and civil servants.
Asked if differences in approach caused any difficulties during the pandemic, the Government’s chief scientific adviser said: “There were several occasions when I had to paper over the cracks, I would say.
“It was mostly that an academic on SPI-M-O (Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational) had told a civil servant why they were wrong in some way that the civil servant felt was rude.”
“I was in contact with people saying ‘I’m sorry, that was upsetting for you. They didn’t mean to be rude to you personally. What they were talking about was your work’,” Dame Angela said.
-----
No wonder they thought Dominic Raab looking at them funny was bullying.
Some people seem to subscribe to the idea that telling them they did something wrong is bad, because it hurts their feelings.
Related is the idea that telling some that what they think is true, isn't. Because it hurts their feelings.
Also, this was a fast moving evolving highly stressful scenario. Nobody really knew the truth, there was no established practice. Everybody was trying to make it up as they went along as best they could.
But the man from the university told me I was wrong....sobs.....but my line manager told me last week my work was fine....i don't understand.....
One of the valuable lessons from working in academia is learning how to cope with being told you're wrong on a regular basis.
And learning both how to accept that when you are wrong and argue it when you are not.
Hmm, one wonders where the civil servants went,. and what degree they did.
Even as an undergraduate I was, sometimes emphatically, told when I was wrong - or on occasion not even wrong. Extremely useful.
The balance has significantly shifted in academia these days. Now students are treated much more like customers, there is far more placation and much less desire to upset anybody. The students are much more likely to raise complaints when they deem that they have been wronged i.e. which can mean just been told they were wrong.
I think the directness is now saved more for interactions with other academics. At least that is my observation.
The balance has shifted, yes. This was the result of Conservative (and New Labour) neoliberal policies that said public services should be more customer-focused.
The theory that the problem with public services is that they are *too customer focused* is novel.
Universities are unique in that students can choose where to go, and take their Government backed loans with them, in a way that hospital patients and police service users cannot.
We could always privatise the police. I believe these guys are available:
To be fair to OmniConsumerProducts, one of their product lines in the Policing space *did* turn out to be World Beating.
"My program will not allow me to act against an officer of this company."
There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.
The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.
Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.
I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.
Not looking forward to this renewal.
Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
Bugger.
I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.
May have to reduce the footwear budget.
Truly the end of days.
The cost of living crisis is real.
For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?
That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on. We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
TSE is just trolling, but the wider issue is that the economic statistics are not being reflected in most people’s lives.
Inflation has been very high for two years now, pay rises haven’t kept up, and the specific inflation on those on low or middle incomes is much higher, them spending more money on bills and food.
Ronald Reagan got it right, and Starmer would do well to copy him next year. Do you feel better off than you did five years ago?
If they want to copy their recent style of attack ad - “Do you feel better off than you did five years ago? Rishi Sunak does.”
Surely: "Do you feel better off than you did thirteen years ago?"
Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago. I’m getting paid twice as much now as I was then.
Narrow the window and narrow the focus. Five years ago, you voted for this lot; has your life got better or worse since then?
Most people haven't fucked off to Dubai though
I was in Dubai 13 years ago.
Then vote for the incumbent government at the next Dubai election.
Sooner or later people might come to see that 'managed decline' is not an insult or evidence of lack of ambition but rather a valid stretch target if 'managed' means competence in government and protecting the less well off and 'decline' means relative to the developing world rather than absolute or relative to our peers. I'm already there. I'd vote for it in a heartbeat. In fact I will be next year. I'm hoping it's what we get from SKS and Labour over the next decade or so.
Forget whatever the growth numbers for developing countries are (I thought this was silly point by Rachael Reeves yesterday among a reasonable response to the budget).
Sub 2% growth is decline in standards, you need at least 2% growth just to stand still with inflation, aging population, ability to redevelop your infrastructure etc etc etc. It is why we are in this position of ever higher taxes while everything is getting worse.
OBR forecasts for every year into the future is sub 2%.
That's what I mean. If we underperform our peers it's a failure. But if we don't, even if our performance is sluggish relative to previous times, then it isn't. There's no reason to think we can or should be an outlier on the upside. There's nothing special about us. A Fund Manager who matches the market over their career, that's a decent Fund Manager and it's what we should aspire to. Sluggish but comparable (to our peers) economic growth would be ok. We should be able to manage this because there's nothing especially bad about us either. And if it's combined with competence and integrity in government and a more equitable distribution of wealth and opportunity, it would be more than ok, it would count as success in my book.
We spend way too much political energy on GDP. What will actually make us happier? Health, homes, social connection. Loads we can do on all three, and far easier to achieve than getting GDP growth to a consistent 4%.
I actually think GDP is a close proxy for things we should care about. GDP is all the income in the economy - that is all of the wages and profits, so a higher GDP means households with more money to spend and businesses that are more profitable and so willing to hire and invest - and more potential tax revenue for the government too. GDP is all the spending in the economy, so it is all of the money households spend on stuff they need to live happy and convenient lives, all the money the government spends on health care, education and other public services, all the money businesses are investing to create future prosperity. And GDP is all the output in the economy, so it is everything we produce, all the goods and services we rely on here in the UK or we sell abroad. In other words, GDP is bloody important. And a big part of our problems right now is that GDP has stopped growing like it used to.
Of course GDP is important, but that does not mean humans can't attach too much (or too little) priority to it. The GDP obsession in Western politics combined with our (nearly all parties across Western "liberal" democracies) inability to deliver it for the last decade or two simply leads to lack of faith and trust in government, hence the rise of the populist right.
If a party for example made their number one pledge as reducing obesity by 10% over the life of a parliament, I think that is perfectly achievable and then in the medium run it does also improve productivity, and in the long run reduces healthcare and social care costs.
I am not sure that GDP is the sole KPI. I prefer looking at median household disposable income for economics to focus on day to day money in the hands of the population. I would also look at a health measure - median healthiness (if such a thing exists).
The allocation of GDP to different parts of the economy is just as important as the overall figure.
Sooner or later people might come to see that 'managed decline' is not an insult or evidence of lack of ambition but rather a valid stretch target if 'managed' means competence in government and protecting the less well off and 'decline' means relative to the developing world rather than absolute or relative to our peers. I'm already there. I'd vote for it in a heartbeat. In fact I will be next year. I'm hoping it's what we get from SKS and Labour over the next decade or so.
Forget whatever the growth numbers for developing countries are (I thought this was silly point by Rachael Reeves yesterday among a reasonable response to the budget).
Sub 2% growth is decline in standards, you need at least 2% growth just to stand still with inflation, aging population, ability to redevelop your infrastructure etc etc etc. It is why we are in this position of ever higher taxes while everything is getting worse.
OBR forecasts for every year into the future is sub 2%.
That's what I mean. If we underperform our peers it's a failure. But if we don't, even if our performance is sluggish relative to previous times, then it isn't. There's no reason to think we can or should be an outlier on the upside. There's nothing special about us. A Fund Manager who matches the market over their career, that's a decent Fund Manager and it's what we should aspire to. Sluggish but comparable (to our peers) economic growth would be ok. We should be able to manage this because there's nothing especially bad about us either. And if it's combined with competence and integrity in government and a more equitable distribution of wealth and opportunity, it would be more than ok, it would count as success in my book.
We spend way too much political energy on GDP. What will actually make us happier? Health, homes, social connection. Loads we can do on all three, and far easier to achieve than getting GDP growth to a consistent 4%.
I actually think GDP is a close proxy for things we should care about. GDP is all the income in the economy - that is all of the wages and profits, so a higher GDP means households with more money to spend and businesses that are more profitable and so willing to hire and invest - and more potential tax revenue for the government too. GDP is all the spending in the economy, so it is all of the money households spend on stuff they need to live happy and convenient lives, all the money the government spends on health care, education and other public services, all the money businesses are investing to create future prosperity. And GDP is all the output in the economy, so it is everything we produce, all the goods and services we rely on here in the UK or we sell abroad. In other words, GDP is bloody important. And a big part of our problems right now is that GDP has stopped growing like it used to.
Um, you might be wrong here. Spending is gross domestic expenditure. Value added is gross national product. The two are not equal. If a country's sole industry is slaves digging up diamonds and exporting them to the mine's foreign owners, then the gross domestic expenditure is the cost of the slaves' meals and the gross national product is the value of the diamonds.
There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.
The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.
Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.
I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.
Not looking forward to this renewal.
Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
Bugger.
I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.
May have to reduce the footwear budget.
Truly the end of days.
The cost of living crisis is real.
For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?
That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on. We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
TSE is just trolling, but the wider issue is that the economic statistics are not being reflected in most people’s lives.
Inflation has been very high for two years now, pay rises haven’t kept up, and the specific inflation on those on low or middle incomes is much higher, them spending more money on bills and food.
Ronald Reagan got it right, and Starmer would do well to copy him next year. Do you feel better off than you did five years ago?
If they want to copy their recent style of attack ad - “Do you feel better off than you did five years ago? Rishi Sunak does.”
Surely: "Do you feel better off than you did thirteen years ago?"
Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago. I’m getting paid twice as much now as I was then.
Narrow the window and narrow the focus. Five years ago, you voted for this lot; has your life got better or worse since then?
Most people haven't fucked off to Dubai though
I was in Dubai 13 years ago.
Then vote for the incumbent government at the next Dubai election.
Economic development appears to be a factor, so India might well follow in China's footsteps. ..On the heels of so much development, bats are roosting in populated areas in extraordinary numbers, researchers say. They are attracted by fruit and nuts grown on farms and in home gardens, replacing the animals’ natural diet of flower nectar and wild fruit...
There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.
The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.
Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.
I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.
Not looking forward to this renewal.
Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
Bugger.
I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.
May have to reduce the footwear budget.
Truly the end of days.
The cost of living crisis is real.
For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?
That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on. We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
TSE is just trolling, but the wider issue is that the economic statistics are not being reflected in most people’s lives.
Inflation has been very high for two years now, pay rises haven’t kept up, and the specific inflation on those on low or middle incomes is much higher, them spending more money on bills and food.
Ronald Reagan got it right, and Starmer would do well to copy him next year. Do you feel better off than you did five years ago?
If they want to copy their recent style of attack ad - “Do you feel better off than you did five years ago? Rishi Sunak does.”
Surely: "Do you feel better off than you did thirteen years ago?"
Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago. I’m getting paid twice as much now as I was then.
Narrow the window and narrow the focus. Five years ago, you voted for this lot; has your life got better or worse since then?
Most people haven't fucked off to Dubai though
I was in Dubai 13 years ago.
So when you say "Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago." you are talking about yourself. Great! You are not most people in the UK...
Here we go...
(People climbing career ladders may well be better off, I rather doubt that is a majority.)
Me:
Looks at graph from 2010-2015
Looks at 2015 election result
Looks at graph from 2019-2024/5 (projected)
Remortgages the house and puts it all on blue for next GE
Profit?
ETA: DYOR! ETA2: The effect of the LDs in government is clear to see #neveragain
There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.
The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.
Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.
I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.
Not looking forward to this renewal.
Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
Bugger.
I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.
May have to reduce the footwear budget.
Truly the end of days.
The cost of living crisis is real.
For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?
That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on. We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
TSE is just trolling, but the wider issue is that the economic statistics are not being reflected in most people’s lives.
Inflation has been very high for two years now, pay rises haven’t kept up, and the specific inflation on those on low or middle incomes is much higher, them spending more money on bills and food.
Ronald Reagan got it right, and Starmer would do well to copy him next year. Do you feel better off than you did five years ago?
If they want to copy their recent style of attack ad - “Do you feel better off than you did five years ago? Rishi Sunak does.”
Surely: "Do you feel better off than you did thirteen years ago?"
Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago. I’m getting paid twice as much now as I was then.
Narrow the window and narrow the focus. Five years ago, you voted for this lot; has your life got better or worse since then?
Most people haven't fucked off to Dubai though
I was in Dubai 13 years ago.
Then vote for the incumbent government at the next Dubai election.
There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.
The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.
Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.
I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.
Not looking forward to this renewal.
Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
Bugger.
I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.
May have to reduce the footwear budget.
Truly the end of days.
The cost of living crisis is real.
For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?
That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on. We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
TSE is just trolling, but the wider issue is that the economic statistics are not being reflected in most people’s lives.
Inflation has been very high for two years now, pay rises haven’t kept up, and the specific inflation on those on low or middle incomes is much higher, them spending more money on bills and food.
Ronald Reagan got it right, and Starmer would do well to copy him next year. Do you feel better off than you did five years ago?
If they want to copy their recent style of attack ad - “Do you feel better off than you did five years ago? Rishi Sunak does.”
Surely: "Do you feel better off than you did thirteen years ago?"
Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago. I’m getting paid twice as much now as I was then.
Narrow the window and narrow the focus. Five years ago, you voted for this lot; has your life got better or worse since then?
Most people haven't fucked off to Dubai though
I was in Dubai 13 years ago.
So when you say "Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago." you are talking about yourself. Great! You are not most people in the UK...
Here we go...
(People climbing career ladders may well be better off, I rather doubt that is a majority.)
Real median household incomes are 11% higher than in 2010. I expect that the difference between the two reflects that in 2010, unemployment was much higher, and employment significantly lower, than now, so there are fewer jobless households.
19.2% of households were jobless in 2010, compared to 13.7% now, so that should explain the rise in real household incomes.
The lived experience for a household which was working in 2010 and is still working now will not be the dramatic gains that Sandpit is assuming...
Ultimately, it's an average, and that always includes people doing better and worse than average.
The key thing is that we even need to have this conversation, because overall we're no more prosperous now than a decade ago. I am, but mostly due to not paying nursery fees any more.
But given the sluggish GDP growth and the lack of improvement in productivity, what did we expect?
Despite the stats showing low productivity, most Brits think they work their tits off. So either we are all deluded, or we are being busy fools.
For a large number of people their expectations of the economy aren't all that great. Have a job which isn't too dull, earn enough money to not be worried about bills, be able to have some nice things and a holiday.
The problem for the Tories is that for so many people it doesn't matter how hard and for how long they work, they are broke. Not "I don't have enough money to pay for that new £3k pair of TSE-signature loafers" broke, I mean "I don't have enough money to have anything left at the end of the month" broke.
Combine that with public services being broken and infrastructure crumbing around us, is it any wonder that people want to punish them?
Indeed, some of us work so hard we limit ourselves to 20 pb posts a day. Imagine the self sacrifice for the good of the wider nation.
“New research from the University of Bath’s School of Management finds that higher cognitive ability was strongly linked to voting to Remain in the 2016 UK referendum on European Union Membership.
“The study shows that cognitive skills including memory, verbal fluency, fluid reasoning and numerical reasoning, were correlated with how people decided to vote.”
I don't doubt its true and a reliable study (I have to say that, its my employer, and they have just promoted me too), but it looks a little like confirmation bias by smug academic types too!
There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.
The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.
Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.
I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.
Not looking forward to this renewal.
Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
Bugger.
I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.
May have to reduce the footwear budget.
Truly the end of days.
The cost of living crisis is real.
For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?
That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on. We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
TSE is just trolling, but the wider issue is that the economic statistics are not being reflected in most people’s lives.
Inflation has been very high for two years now, pay rises haven’t kept up, and the specific inflation on those on low or middle incomes is much higher, them spending more money on bills and food.
Ronald Reagan got it right, and Starmer would do well to copy him next year. Do you feel better off than you did five years ago?
If they want to copy their recent style of attack ad - “Do you feel better off than you did five years ago? Rishi Sunak does.”
Surely: "Do you feel better off than you did thirteen years ago?"
Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago. I’m getting paid twice as much now as I was then.
Narrow the window and narrow the focus. Five years ago, you voted for this lot; has your life got better or worse since then?
Most people haven't fucked off to Dubai though
I was in Dubai 13 years ago.
So when you say "Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago." you are talking about yourself. Great! You are not most people in the UK...
Here we go...
(People climbing career ladders may well be better off, I rather doubt that is a majority.)
Real median household incomes are 11% higher than in 2010. I expect that the difference between the two reflects that in 2010, unemployment was much higher, and employment significantly lower, than now, so there are fewer jobless households.
19.2% of households were jobless in 2010, compared to 13.7% now, so that should explain the rise in real household incomes.
So thats a 29% reduction in jobless households since Labour left office.
My absolutely favourite shop continues to test to destruction the issue of whether it is possible to go broke underestimating the taste of the British public. This is why I shop nowhere else.
There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.
The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.
Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.
I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.
Not looking forward to this renewal.
Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
Bugger.
I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.
May have to reduce the footwear budget.
Truly the end of days.
The cost of living crisis is real.
For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?
That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on. We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
TSE is just trolling, but the wider issue is that the economic statistics are not being reflected in most people’s lives.
Inflation has been very high for two years now, pay rises haven’t kept up, and the specific inflation on those on low or middle incomes is much higher, them spending more money on bills and food.
Ronald Reagan got it right, and Starmer would do well to copy him next year. Do you feel better off than you did five years ago?
If they want to copy their recent style of attack ad - “Do you feel better off than you did five years ago? Rishi Sunak does.”
Surely: "Do you feel better off than you did thirteen years ago?"
Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago. I’m getting paid twice as much now as I was then.
Narrow the window and narrow the focus. Five years ago, you voted for this lot; has your life got better or worse since then?
Most people haven't fucked off to Dubai though
I was in Dubai 13 years ago.
So when you say "Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago." you are talking about yourself. Great! You are not most people in the UK...
Here we go...
(People climbing career ladders may well be better off, I rather doubt that is a majority.)
Real median household incomes are 11% higher than in 2010. I expect that the difference between the two reflects that in 2010, unemployment was much higher, and employment significantly lower, than now, so there are fewer jobless households.
19.2% of households were jobless in 2010, compared to 13.7% now, so that should explain the rise in real household incomes.
The lived experience for a household which was working in 2010 and is still working now will not be the dramatic gains that Sandpit is assuming...
Ultimately, it's an average, and that always includes people doing better and worse than average.
The key thing is that we even need to have this conversation, because overall we're no more prosperous now than a decade ago. I am, but mostly due to not paying nursery fees any more.
But given the sluggish GDP growth and the lack of improvement in productivity, what did we expect?
Despite the stats showing low productivity, most Brits think they work their tits off. So either we are all deluded, or we are being busy fools.
For a large number of people their expectations of the economy aren't all that great. Have a job which isn't too dull, earn enough money to not be worried about bills, be able to have some nice things and a holiday.
The problem for the Tories is that for so many people it doesn't matter how hard and for how long they work, they are broke. Not "I don't have enough money to pay for that new £3k pair of TSE-signature loafers" broke, I mean "I don't have enough money to have anything left at the end of the month" broke.
Combine that with public services being broken and infrastructure crumbing around us, is it any wonder that people want to punish them?
I think its both deluded about how hard they work and lots of unproductive busy work / lack of investment.
One thing in our university - not sure how widely this is replicated, NHS may be another example - is that bean counters have pushed to reduce numbers of 'unproductive' staff - e.g. administrators. After all, unlike academics, they don't teach students nor bring in research income. And the university doesn't seem to have fallen over with the reduced headcount. What it misses is people like me doing our own admin (badly, as we never really got training) for 2-3x the cost of an administrator. Even if I'm as good as the administrator, my productivity is lower per unit of pay on these tasks (reader: I'm not as good).
It also serves to create extra snafus and reduce my time available to do things like pursue grants to build my team rather than just keep the status quo.
Case in point, I've spent several days recently coordinating data agreements and transfers between data providers and ourselves, something that our recently retired administrator (not replaced) would have done better than me and more quickly due to not having to pester the remaining administrators on how to do it.
There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.
The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.
Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.
I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.
Not looking forward to this renewal.
Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
Bugger.
I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.
May have to reduce the footwear budget.
Truly the end of days.
The cost of living crisis is real.
For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?
That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on. We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
TSE is just trolling, but the wider issue is that the economic statistics are not being reflected in most people’s lives.
Inflation has been very high for two years now, pay rises haven’t kept up, and the specific inflation on those on low or middle incomes is much higher, them spending more money on bills and food.
Ronald Reagan got it right, and Starmer would do well to copy him next year. Do you feel better off than you did five years ago?
If they want to copy their recent style of attack ad - “Do you feel better off than you did five years ago? Rishi Sunak does.”
Surely: "Do you feel better off than you did thirteen years ago?"
Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago. I’m getting paid twice as much now as I was then.
Narrow the window and narrow the focus. Five years ago, you voted for this lot; has your life got better or worse since then?
Most people haven't fucked off to Dubai though
I was in Dubai 13 years ago.
So when you say "Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago." you are talking about yourself. Great! You are not most people in the UK...
Here we go...
(People climbing career ladders may well be better off, I rather doubt that is a majority.)
Real median household incomes are 11% higher than in 2010. I expect that the difference between the two reflects that in 2010, unemployment was much higher, and employment significantly lower, than now, so there are fewer jobless households.
19.2% of households were jobless in 2010, compared to 13.7% now, so that should explain the rise in real household incomes.
The lived experience for a household which was working in 2010 and is still working now will not be the dramatic gains that Sandpit is assuming...
Ultimately, it's an average, and that always includes people doing better and worse than average.
The key thing is that we even need to have this conversation, because overall we're no more prosperous now than a decade ago. I am, but mostly due to not paying nursery fees any more.
But given the sluggish GDP growth and the lack of improvement in productivity, what did we expect?
Despite the stats showing low productivity, most Brits think they work their tits off. So either we are all deluded, or we are being busy fools.
For a large number of people their expectations of the economy aren't all that great. Have a job which isn't too dull, earn enough money to not be worried about bills, be able to have some nice things and a holiday.
The problem for the Tories is that for so many people it doesn't matter how hard and for how long they work, they are broke. Not "I don't have enough money to pay for that new £3k pair of TSE-signature loafers" broke, I mean "I don't have enough money to have anything left at the end of the month" broke.
Combine that with public services being broken and infrastructure crumbing around us, is it any wonder that people want to punish them?
Indeed, some of us work so hard we limit ourselves to 20 pb posts a day. Imagine the self sacrifice for the good of the wider nation.
If I was on an hourly rate I wouldn't post on here at all whilst working.
“New research from the University of Bath’s School of Management finds that higher cognitive ability was strongly linked to voting to Remain in the 2016 UK referendum on European Union Membership.
“The study shows that cognitive skills including memory, verbal fluency, fluid reasoning and numerical reasoning, were correlated with how people decided to vote.”
Another of those 'research to confirm the obvious' exercises that Unis do from time to time.
Next up, "Do tall men need longer than average trousers?"
This is a deeply thick piece of research, conceived by, designed by, conducted by and appealing to deeply thick people. 'Those people who disagree with me are stooooopid, fnar fnar fnar' - the smell of *actual* stupid reeks off this. No nuance, no intellectual curiosity.
Well no, it's been carried out by people of above average intelligence. However I question its value. Academic research is best when it's delving into the unknown.
There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.
The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.
Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.
I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.
Not looking forward to this renewal.
Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
Bugger.
I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.
May have to reduce the footwear budget.
Truly the end of days.
The cost of living crisis is real.
For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?
That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on. We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
TSE is just trolling, but the wider issue is that the economic statistics are not being reflected in most people’s lives.
Inflation has been very high for two years now, pay rises haven’t kept up, and the specific inflation on those on low or middle incomes is much higher, them spending more money on bills and food.
Ronald Reagan got it right, and Starmer would do well to copy him next year. Do you feel better off than you did five years ago?
If they want to copy their recent style of attack ad - “Do you feel better off than you did five years ago? Rishi Sunak does.”
Surely: "Do you feel better off than you did thirteen years ago?"
Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago. I’m getting paid twice as much now as I was then.
Narrow the window and narrow the focus. Five years ago, you voted for this lot; has your life got better or worse since then?
Most people haven't fucked off to Dubai though
I was in Dubai 13 years ago.
So when you say "Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago." you are talking about yourself. Great! You are not most people in the UK...
Here we go...
(People climbing career ladders may well be better off, I rather doubt that is a majority.)
Real median household incomes are 11% higher than in 2010. I expect that the difference between the two reflects that in 2010, unemployment was much higher, and employment significantly lower, than now, so there are fewer jobless households.
19.2% of households were jobless in 2010, compared to 13.7% now, so that should explain the rise in real household incomes.
The lived experience for a household which was working in 2010 and is still working now will not be the dramatic gains that Sandpit is assuming...
Ultimately, it's an average, and that always includes people doing better and worse than average.
The key thing is that we even need to have this conversation, because overall we're no more prosperous now than a decade ago. I am, but mostly due to not paying nursery fees any more.
But given the sluggish GDP growth and the lack of improvement in productivity, what did we expect?
Despite the stats showing low productivity, most Brits think they work their tits off. So either we are all deluded, or we are being busy fools.
For a large number of people their expectations of the economy aren't all that great. Have a job which isn't too dull, earn enough money to not be worried about bills, be able to have some nice things and a holiday.
The problem for the Tories is that for so many people it doesn't matter how hard and for how long they work, they are broke. Not "I don't have enough money to pay for that new £3k pair of TSE-signature loafers" broke, I mean "I don't have enough money to have anything left at the end of the month" broke.
Combine that with public services being broken and infrastructure crumbing around us, is it any wonder that people want to punish them?
I think its both deluded about how hard they work and lots of unproductive busy work / lack of investment.
One thing in our university - not sure how widely this is replicated, NHS may be another example - is that bean counters have pushed to reduce numbers of 'unproductive' staff - e.g. administrators. After all, unlike academics, they don't teach students nor bring in research income. And the university doesn't seem to have fallen over with the reduced headcount. What it misses is people like me doing our own admin (badly, as we never really got training) for 2-3x the cost of an administrator. Even if I'm as good as the administrator, my productivity is lower per unit of pay on these tasks (reader: I'm not as good).
It also serves to create extra snafus and reduce my time available to do things like pursue grants to build my team rather than just keep the status quo.
Case in point, I've spent several days recently coordinating data agreements and transfers between data providers and ourselves, something that our recently retired administrator (not replaced) would have done better than me and more quickly due to not having to pester the remaining administrators on how to do it.
40 years ago I remember computer science academics wondering if the influx of unix on minicomputers was turning them from researchers to overpaid computer operators (a job that has disappeared).
“New research from the University of Bath’s School of Management finds that higher cognitive ability was strongly linked to voting to Remain in the 2016 UK referendum on European Union Membership.
“The study shows that cognitive skills including memory, verbal fluency, fluid reasoning and numerical reasoning, were correlated with how people decided to vote.”
I have no idea what they make of this, though the implications are fairly clear. Suppose however that it was also discovered that voting Remain also was linked to, for example, having significant inherited wealth, being privately educated, owning several homes, having a high carbon footprint, using the word 'pleb' about the WWC, using IHT avoidance schemes, thinking that the opinions of White Van Man didn't count, and attending black tie dinners....I wonder what conclusions should be drawn.
BTW the leaders of the Remain campaign may also have high cognitive skills, but they still ran a campaign of moral and political ineptitude that continues to beggar the imagination.
Leave voters were, on average, less wealthy, older, and less likely to have been to university than Remain voters, so, they ought on average, to have lower cognitive ability (although as the small print of the report notes, there is a huge overlap).
At any point prior to 2015, one would have found a similar gap in cognitive ability, on average, between Conservative and Labour voters, but I expect the researchers might have drawn different conclusions.
“New research from the University of Bath’s School of Management finds that higher cognitive ability was strongly linked to voting to Remain in the 2016 UK referendum on European Union Membership.
“The study shows that cognitive skills including memory, verbal fluency, fluid reasoning and numerical reasoning, were correlated with how people decided to vote.”
For goodness sake don't tell Leon. What with his views on Brexit, his self perceived IQ and views on the wisdom of the crowd the multiple contradictions will have him posting here with lots of capitals and insults.
There goes your NI cut. Backers of a spring election, take note.
The NI cut more than covers the energy increase (For most). Add in council tax, water, broadband however...
How many people come to the end of fixed-term arrangements on energy (and mortgages!) in the next six months?
My two year fixed deal with EDF runs out next month.
Thanks to the government I actually paid less for my energy last year than I did in 2021.
I had friends who lived in one bedroom flats paying more for their energy than I was.
Not looking forward to this renewal.
Both me and one of my colleagues enjoyed this till Oct/Sep this year - the renewal is a real stinger I'm afraid.
Bugger.
I put the £400 to one side and extra £100 a month since last summer aside to cover the increase.
May have to reduce the footwear budget.
Truly the end of days.
The cost of living crisis is real.
For some, for example lawyers or bankers living in a house with no mortgage, it’s a minor inconvenience; but for many millions it’s a full-blown crisis.
Yeah, but Sunak has halved inflation, so it's all good!
Way too many of the public don’t understand that inflation falling means that prices are still rising?
That said, way too many politicians and political commentators don’t understand the same relationship when applied to deficit and debt.
If you only read or watch mainstream media you'd think the economy was going the right way. Even the likes of the Guardian, who hate Tories, don't really dive deep enough into the inflation figures to find out what's really going on. We're buggered for the foreseeable, especially if people in TSE's income range can feel a difference. Imagine how actual poor people feel!
TSE is just trolling, but the wider issue is that the economic statistics are not being reflected in most people’s lives.
Inflation has been very high for two years now, pay rises haven’t kept up, and the specific inflation on those on low or middle incomes is much higher, them spending more money on bills and food.
Ronald Reagan got it right, and Starmer would do well to copy him next year. Do you feel better off than you did five years ago?
If they want to copy their recent style of attack ad - “Do you feel better off than you did five years ago? Rishi Sunak does.”
Surely: "Do you feel better off than you did thirteen years ago?"
Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago. I’m getting paid twice as much now as I was then.
Narrow the window and narrow the focus. Five years ago, you voted for this lot; has your life got better or worse since then?
Most people haven't fucked off to Dubai though
I was in Dubai 13 years ago.
So when you say "Most people *are* way better off than they were 13 years ago." you are talking about yourself. Great! You are not most people in the UK...
Here we go...
(People climbing career ladders may well be better off, I rather doubt that is a majority.)
Real median household incomes are 11% higher than in 2010. I expect that the difference between the two reflects that in 2010, unemployment was much higher, and employment significantly lower, than now, so there are fewer jobless households.
19.2% of households were jobless in 2010, compared to 13.7% now, so that should explain the rise in real household incomes.
The lived experience for a household which was working in 2010 and is still working now will not be the dramatic gains that Sandpit is assuming...
Ultimately, it's an average, and that always includes people doing better and worse than average.
The key thing is that we even need to have this conversation, because overall we're no more prosperous now than a decade ago. I am, but mostly due to not paying nursery fees any more.
But given the sluggish GDP growth and the lack of improvement in productivity, what did we expect?
Despite the stats showing low productivity, most Brits think they work their tits off. So either we are all deluded, or we are being busy fools.
For a large number of people their expectations of the economy aren't all that great. Have a job which isn't too dull, earn enough money to not be worried about bills, be able to have some nice things and a holiday.
The problem for the Tories is that for so many people it doesn't matter how hard and for how long they work, they are broke. Not "I don't have enough money to pay for that new £3k pair of TSE-signature loafers" broke, I mean "I don't have enough money to have anything left at the end of the month" broke.
Combine that with public services being broken and infrastructure crumbing around us, is it any wonder that people want to punish them?
I think its both deluded about how hard they work and lots of unproductive busy work / lack of investment.
One thing in our university - not sure how widely this is replicated, NHS may be another example - is that bean counters have pushed to reduce numbers of 'unproductive' staff - e.g. administrators. After all, unlike academics, they don't teach students nor bring in research income. And the university doesn't seem to have fallen over with the reduced headcount. What it misses is people like me doing our own admin (badly, as we never really got training) for 2-3x the cost of an administrator. Even if I'm as good as the administrator, my productivity is lower per unit of pay on these tasks (reader: I'm not as good).
It also serves to create extra snafus and reduce my time available to do things like pursue grants to build my team rather than just keep the status quo.
Case in point, I've spent several days recently coordinating data agreements and transfers between data providers and ourselves, something that our recently retired administrator (not replaced) would have done better than me and more quickly due to not having to pester the remaining administrators on how to do it.
Totally agree. We are under constant pressure to increase grant income and yet our time is savaged by the death of a thousand cuts doing endless admin tasks (badly) that actual admin staff would do much more efficiently.
And I've just had an email about a recruitment 'chill' (note, not a freeze!) because of a budget shortfall...
Hence, why I suggest politicians follow a national version of the serenity prayer, stop trying to do things beyond their control and capability, and focus on what they could change positively instead.
Off topic, but it is Thanksgiving here: Megan McArdle thinks Americans have much to be thankful for. "In 1900, about 44 man hours — or rather, lady hours — were needed each week to make the meals for a typical middle-class household and then clean up afterward. . . . "From your great-great-grandmother’s point of view, you live in a fairy story where an army of magical mechanical servants helps prepare the feast.
Your meal is also easier on the wallet. In 1915, Chicago grocers were advertising turkeys as low as 28 cents a pound, or about $8.35 a pound in today’s dollars — compared with the average $1.14 Americans pay today for a frozen bird ($2.05 for a fresh one). This is even more striking as a percentage of wages, which averaged $687 for a man in 1915, or about $20,500 in today’s dollars, and for a much longer workweek. Nor is this just some anomaly about turkeys; in that era, food consumed more than one-third of household budgets, compared with about 13 percent today." source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/22/thanksgiving-food-costs-delicacies-history/
Her argument would be even stronger had she mentioned that a much larger proportion of American families were then living on farms, and raising much of their own food.
Comments
“New research from the University of Bath’s School of Management finds that higher cognitive ability was strongly linked to voting to Remain in the 2016 UK referendum on European Union Membership.
“The study shows that cognitive skills including memory, verbal fluency, fluid reasoning and numerical reasoning, were correlated with how people decided to vote.”
The key thing is that we even need to have this conversation, because overall we're no more prosperous now than a decade ago. I am, but mostly due to not paying nursery fees any more.
But given the sluggish GDP growth and the lack of improvement in productivity, what did we expect?
Last month as it happens, not that there was much international coverage.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Emirati_parliamentary_election
https://x.com/bristolairport/status/1727651705309876546?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uae-sets-up-gaming-regulator-led-by-us-industry-veterans-2023-09-04/
Next up, "Do tall men need longer than average trousers?"
Right now, I'm not convinced that the UK is doing that well at either. Though it could be worse. A lot worse.
We also need to face up to the fact that we are directing enormous amounts of resources at these immigrants - there are probably 10 million people employed in the construction supply chain which is currently effectively being used entirely to provide homes for immigrants. If would be better in the long term if those 10 million were filling the vacancies the immigrants come to fill rather than just working on building homes for them.
UAE Parliament 3rd in the world for female representation.
For a large number of people their expectations of the economy aren't all that great. Have a job which isn't too dull, earn enough money to not be worried about bills, be able to have some nice things and a holiday.
The problem for the Tories is that for so many people it doesn't matter how hard and for how long they work, they are broke. Not "I don't have enough money to pay for that new £3k pair of TSE-signature loafers" broke, I mean "I don't have enough money to have anything left at the end of the month" broke.
Combine that with public services being broken and infrastructure crumbing around us, is it any wonder that people want to punish them?
If a party for example made their number one pledge as reducing obesity by 10% over the life of a parliament, I think that is perfectly achievable and then in the medium run it does also improve productivity, and in the long run reduces healthcare and social care costs.
BTW the leaders of the Remain campaign may also have high cognitive skills, but they still ran a campaign of moral and political ineptitude that continues to beggar the imagination.
So there's my submission for today's Easier Said Than Done award. Let's see if anybody can beat it.
The allocation of GDP to different parts of the economy is just as important as the overall figure.
Here's a recent example.
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/global-pandemic-bats-prevention/
Economic development appears to be a factor, so India might well follow in China's footsteps.
..On the heels of so much development, bats are roosting in populated areas in extraordinary numbers, researchers say. They are attracted by fruit and nuts grown on farms and in home gardens, replacing the animals’ natural diet of flower nectar and wild fruit...
Granted the differences in livestock husbandry (another potential risk factor) between the two countries are considerable:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/263961/top-countries-worldwide-by-chicken-stock-2007/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/263964/number-of-pigs-in-selected-countries/
Keep an eye on Indonesia, too.
- Looks at graph from 2010-2015
- Looks at 2015 election result
- Looks at graph from 2019-2024/5 (projected)
- Remortgages the house and puts it all on blue for next GE
- Profit?
ETA: DYOR!ETA2: The effect of the LDs in government is clear to see
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2023/nov/23/lidl-christmas-jumper-loan-scheme-nspcc
It also serves to create extra snafus and reduce my time available to do things like pursue grants to build my team rather than just keep the status quo.
Case in point, I've spent several days recently coordinating data agreements and transfers between data providers and ourselves, something that our recently retired administrator (not replaced) would have done better than me and more quickly due to not having to pester the remaining administrators on how to do it.
It does look as if Britons do actually understand what lower inflation means.
This has turned into an epic November for @TheScreamingEagles 🙏
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/oct/13/geert-wilders-wins-appeal-ban-uk
At any point prior to 2015, one would have found a similar gap in cognitive ability, on average, between Conservative and Labour voters, but I expect the researchers might have drawn different conclusions.
And I've just had an email about a recruitment 'chill' (note, not a freeze!) because of a budget shortfall...
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/government-approval
Hence, why I suggest politicians follow a national version of the serenity prayer, stop trying to do things beyond their control and capability, and focus on what they could change positively instead.
"In 1900, about 44 man hours — or rather, lady hours — were needed each week to make the meals for a typical middle-class household and then clean up afterward.
. . .
"From your great-great-grandmother’s point of view, you live in a fairy story where an army of magical mechanical servants helps prepare the feast.
Your meal is also easier on the wallet. In 1915, Chicago grocers were advertising turkeys as low as 28 cents a pound, or about $8.35 a pound in today’s dollars — compared with the average $1.14 Americans pay today for a frozen bird ($2.05 for a fresh one). This is even more striking as a percentage of wages, which averaged $687 for a man in 1915, or about $20,500 in today’s dollars, and for a much longer workweek. Nor is this just some anomaly about turkeys; in that era, food consumed more than one-third of household budgets, compared with about 13 percent today."
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/22/thanksgiving-food-costs-delicacies-history/
Her argument would be even stronger had she mentioned that a much larger proportion of American families were then living on farms, and raising much of their own food.