A good move for the Tories that increases the number of MPs they will win next election.
Cameron is an election winner, will not say crazy stuff like Braverman and will bring back some moderate tory votes from lib dems.
I don't see it - Cameron isn't popular as far as I can see (polling is limited since he stopped being PM) and he's going to be FS. I assume this is a move by Rishi going "it's complicated in the world at the moment, and I need someone who doesn't need to start all these relationships from scratch, plus his job is literally an international lobbyist so will know who to butter up and how". GEs are not won on foreign policy, let alone Foreign Secretary.
One aside on this reshuffle and particularly on the Braverman/Cleverly/Cameron moves.
Does this tell us something about the possible timing of the next election? I would have thought that having signalled such a large apparent move in tone and direction, Sunak would want the maximum amount of time possible to sell it to the public whilst not appearing to leave it to the last minute.
So although I don't think it will make much difference to the eventual outcome, personally I am thinking this starts to solidify the chances of an autumn 2024 election, or at least drastically reduces the chances of a spring 2024 election.
Thoughts?
I never thought a spring 2024 election was a go'er.
Superhero film The Marvels made just $47m (£38m) in its first weekend, in the US, making it the Marvel Cinematic Universe's lowest opening. In contrast, Avengers: Endgame made box office history in 2019 by taking a record-breaking $1.2bn (£980m) in global ticket sales in its opening run.
Ouch....
Whilst I am well aware of The Marvels' AAARGH! numbers, you are not comparing like-to-like
Domestic (US&Canada) gross for first weekend
The Marvels: $47,000,000
Avengers:Endgame: $357,115,007
At a guess, given the international numbers and a slightly better decay curve than you'd expect, it'll probably make its net budget back so they'll be able to claim a nominal success. But that ignores the cost of promotion etc so it'll probably end up losing what, 100-200million? In pre-Covid times they'd have made up the loss with another film, but still-low post-Covid attendance and superhero fatigue in general and MCU fatigue in particular makes it bad news for Marvel. Everything has been postponed to 2015 (except for Deadpool 3) while they work out what, if anything, they can do to fix this.
That was a direct quote from BBC...but I believe drop off is very fast after opening weekend for films that flop. It goes to zero fast.
To cover cost of promotion, distribution, etc etc etc, I believe rough rule of thumb is they spend cost of movie again on advertising / promotion etc, and with all revenue deals, you basically need 3-4x the headline cost of production to get your money back on these mega blockbusters.
Has this been affected by lack of promotion due to the acting strike ?
It is still early days but it would be good if this marked the start of the marginalisation of the populist Tory right. They have not produced good governance, or stability, or prosperity, or social cohesion. They have left us more divided, more angry, more broken, less well governed. They had their chance.
It is too early to prophesy their demise. In particular, I fear what happens after the GE. But if Sunak does clear house then perhaps it’s the best thing he can do with the time remaining to him.
I’d withdraw the whip from the most egregiously dog-whistle-y types, to be frank. Suella can’t be leader if she’s not in the party.
Brilliant. So that leaves us with 3 main parties all fighting over a tiny patch of centre ground with high tax, high spend, high immigration, and zero choice for voters
I’m not a big fan of Braverman - she’s clumsy and naive and “lifestyle choice” was egregiously offensive - but there is a vast chunk of voters who REALLY DO want immigration drastically reduced, the boats stopped at the coast, Wokeness pushed back (in all its forms) &c &c
For all her faults Suella spoke to those people and seemed to get it; she was also ballsy enough to take on liberal media. Who is left, to do this, and to speak to those voters?
The Tories abandon them at their peril. Because, if the Tories are just going to be Posh Labour then we might as well vote Labour as they are less annoying
One aside on this reshuffle and particularly on the Braverman/Cleverly/Cameron moves.
Does this tell us something about the possible timing of the next election? I would have thought that having signalled such a large apparent move in tone and direction, Sunak would want the maximum amount of time possible to sell it to the public whilst not appearing to leave it to the last minute.
So although I don't think it will make much difference to the eventual outcome, personally I am thinking this starts to solidify the chances of an autumn 2024 election, or at least drastically reduces the chances of a spring 2024 election.
Thoughts?
That's a relatively rational interpretation, but I agree with Dan Hodges. Sunak may well have a different strategy next week. If this strategic change of direction doesn't gain any traction, I could easily see him changing tack again, and a surprise spring election might be the only play left.
My immediate thought (FWIW) was that it made a spring election more likely.
Soon enough for them still to be pushing the (barely credible, but still) change message. Leave it later than that and they'll be expected to actually do something.
The state of the NHS over the winter will be a major factor in the decision on whether to call a Spring election.
Being told that one of the reasons a significant number of Ministers are asking to step down now is because ACOBA rules require 6 month hiatus before taking up certain jobs. Clearly believe we’re looking at May election.
This move sets a precedent for the return of Truss.
I guess you're joking! Sunak had an unusual number of former prime ministers to choose from, and even then he went back to one that had moved to the Lords. Very few would go back to the previous PM from whom they won the seat. I can only think of Neville Chamberlain serving under Churchill.
Douglas-Home served under Heath, and Heath was prepared to serve under Thatcher, though she didn't accept the offer.
There are plenty of pre-WW2 examples too. In the first half of the 20th century, MacDonald served in Baldwin's third term, while Baldwin himself served in MacDonald's second (though that's a special case given the coalition nature and that Baldwin's Tories contained an overwhelming majority of the MPs). Lloyd George returned to a united Liberal Party under Asquith's leadership in 1923, which obviously didn't form a government but came much closer to doing so than is now remembered, while Balfour served in several subsequent governments.
Apparently it was Maggie's refusal to make him Foreign Sec., rather than the ousting as leader, that led to Ted's bitter animus.
It's mostly the clown's fault that there is so little talent left among Tory MPs, with the few potentially able junior ones untested because the jobs were blocked by all his numpties
This move sets a precedent for the return of Truss.
I guess you're joking! Sunak had an unusual number of former prime ministers to choose from, and even then he went back to one that had moved to the Lords. Very few would go back to the previous PM from whom they won the seat. I can only think of Neville Chamberlain serving under Churchill.
Sir Alec Douglas-Home was Foreign Secretary under Ted Heath.
94% of people won’t give a toss about the Cameron appointment
4% will be annoyed; 2% pleased
I mean, Cameron has near universal name recognition (according to Yougov) and pretty bad favourability ratings, so I don't see this doing nothing. A few Tories who were put off by the headbangers, like TSE, may go back - but I think a similar number of culture war / Back Boris types will see this as a step backwards and will stay home / vote UKRef. LDs are taking it in their stride, arguing this shows the Tories are more worried about the blue wall losses to them than red wall losses to Labour - proving how weak they are. If that becomes the main line of attack, I could imagine LDs seeing a boost in the polls in some places.
Hmmm. Not sure they are posh anymore. Tends to be people who want people to think they are posh and a little bit daring.
A lot of wearers are also influenced by seeing certain types wearing them in the 80s when they were growing up worn with a pair of Penny loafers and a blue and white striped shirt - a preppy/yuppie look.
If you are posh you don’t give a damn what colour socks you are wearing and therefore don’t deliberately choose red socks to signal who you are. And socks are more likely to have a hole in than be red.
The truely posh wear their dad's darned socks. The Princess Royal is often seen cutting about in a pair of Phil's Pantherellas.
The retro trend I'm noticing is 1950s school style clickety-click light switches. Screwfix have their model in about 15 finishes in a triple gang in an obtangular format.
It's as if they think we all want to live in Miss Marples' retirement flat in Dorking, or a polio institution.
All I want is just *one* like that with real rocker switches - but nothing anywhere.
My husband, as a planning consultant, sometimes had to deal with country estates. He soon learnt that the immaculately dressed one was the estate manager and the scruff was the owner.
My Great-Grandfather was Lord Burleigh's estate manager at Burghley House. Photos would suggest that is correct but I am, sadly, irredeemably scruffy.
Superhero film The Marvels made just $47m (£38m) in its first weekend, in the US, making it the Marvel Cinematic Universe's lowest opening. In contrast, Avengers: Endgame made box office history in 2019 by taking a record-breaking $1.2bn (£980m) in global ticket sales in its opening run.
Ouch....
Whilst I am well aware of The Marvels' AAARGH! numbers, you are not comparing like-to-like
Domestic (US&Canada) gross for first weekend
The Marvels: $47,000,000
Avengers:Endgame: $357,115,007
At a guess, given the international numbers and a slightly better decay curve than you'd expect, it'll probably make its net budget back so they'll be able to claim a nominal success. But that ignores the cost of promotion etc so it'll probably end up losing what, 100-200million? In pre-Covid times they'd have made up the loss with another film, but still-low post-Covid attendance and superhero fatigue in general and MCU fatigue in particular makes it bad news for Marvel. Everything has been postponed to 2015 (except for Deadpool 3) while they work out what, if anything, they can do to fix this.
That was a direct quote from BBC...but I believe drop off is very fast after opening weekend for films that flop. It goes to zero fast.
To cover cost of promotion, distribution, etc etc etc, I believe rough rule of thumb is they spend cost of movie again on advertising / promotion etc, and with all revenue deals, you basically need 3-4x the headline cost of production to get your money back on these mega blockbusters.
Has this been affected by lack of promotion due to the acting strike ?
No, this is a stinker they have had on their hands for ages. Its been put back and back and reshot, because it got such negative feedback Its more of Disney's belief that Marvel can't fail, and that combining all these "heroes" will be winner.
Being told that one of the reasons a significant number of Ministers are asking to step down now is because ACOBA rules require 6 month hiatus before taking up certain jobs. Clearly believe we’re looking at May election.
94% of people won’t give a toss about the Cameron appointment
4% will be annoyed; 2% pleased
Just as an aside. I had to explain to my wife this morning that Braverman was sacked in part due to her comments on the pro-Palestinian marches this week.
She said: what pro-Palestinian marches?
Just a reminder that very few follow politics as closely as well do, or even necessarily what's headlining the news.
Being told that one of the reasons a significant number of Ministers are asking to step down now is because ACOBA rules require 6 month hiatus before taking up certain jobs. Clearly believe we’re looking at May election.
Ah yes, nothing says "public duty" like having to time your resignation so that you can get a big pay out in the private sector afterwards. I'm sure many voters will be extremely sympathetic to the revolving door...
Being told that one of the reasons a significant number of Ministers are asking to step down now is because ACOBA rules require 6 month hiatus before taking up certain jobs. Clearly believe we’re looking at May election.
1. This will probably be the only major planned reshuffle before the election, so it's now-or-never for those seeking to leave. They don't get to pick 'next Feb/March', in anticipation of an autumn election, if there isn't a reshuffle then. Not if they plan on acting loyally, anyway.
2. It's backing both horses. It's preparing *in case* there's a Spring election, with their actions also setting them up for post-parliamentary life if it's later than May.
One aside on this reshuffle and particularly on the Braverman/Cleverly/Cameron moves.
Does this tell us something about the possible timing of the next election? I would have thought that having signalled such a large apparent move in tone and direction, Sunak would want the maximum amount of time possible to sell it to the public whilst not appearing to leave it to the last minute.
So although I don't think it will make much difference to the eventual outcome, personally I am thinking this starts to solidify the chances of an autumn 2024 election, or at least drastically reduces the chances of a spring 2024 election.
Thoughts?
I never thought a spring 2024 election was a go'er.
Yes, the fact that Dan Hodges is promoting the idea is more evidence that there is little chance of it happening.
94% of people won’t give a toss about the Cameron appointment
4% will be annoyed; 2% pleased
Just as an aside. I had to explain to my wife this morning that Braverman was sacked in part due to her comments on the pro-Palestinian marches this week.
She said: what pro-Palestinian marches?
Just a reminder that very few follow politics as closely as well do, or even necessarily what's headlining the news.
And "who is Braverman"...
When they ask the public most people struggle to get past PM and LOTO.
Being told that one of the reasons a significant number of Ministers are asking to step down now is because ACOBA rules require 6 month hiatus before taking up certain jobs. Clearly believe we’re looking at May election.
Given Cameron's electoral record, that sounds right. Even after the GFC Cameron turned a clear poll lead into a hung parliament.
He won four out of five general elections and plebiscites.
Edit in 2010 he made the second most net gains by a LOTO since WWII.
Only just and he lost ground in every campaign, almost losing Scotland until saved by Gordon Brown and Ruth Davidson, losing Brexit against the polling, turning a clear lead into a hung parliament in 2010. Cameron's campaigning record is appalling; he goes 100% negative and it doesn't work. And GE2015 only looks good because the SNP swept Labour out of Scotland.
I think he gained ground in 2015? Though the polls were that far out it's hard to say.
But yes, Cameron was generally a much more effective campaigner in the period before the campaign proper started than during it - his strategic campaigning was generally on the mark; his tactical campaigning much less so.
This is absurd! He lost a Brexit referendum he didn’t have to call, and which should have been the easiest win
By his own terms, he was the most calamitous Prime Minister since Chamberlain. That is not “strategically on the mark”
It’s like saying Hitler was a pretty good German leader because of his pro-motorist agenda
The Brexit referendum was coming - there was no way of avoiding it sooner or later.
In fact, it became the full monty because for over 20 years various UK governments had been dodging them on the treaties.
Superhero film The Marvels made just $47m (£38m) in its first weekend, in the US, making it the Marvel Cinematic Universe's lowest opening. In contrast, Avengers: Endgame made box office history in 2019 by taking a record-breaking $1.2bn (£980m) in global ticket sales in its opening run.
Ouch....
Whilst I am well aware of The Marvels' AAARGH! numbers, you are not comparing like-to-like
Domestic (US&Canada) gross for first weekend
The Marvels: $47,000,000
Avengers:Endgame: $357,115,007
At a guess, given the international numbers and a slightly better decay curve than you'd expect, it'll probably make its net budget back so they'll be able to claim a nominal success. But that ignores the cost of promotion etc so it'll probably end up losing what, 100-200million? In pre-Covid times they'd have made up the loss with another film, but still-low post-Covid attendance and superhero fatigue in general and MCU fatigue in particular makes it bad news for Marvel. Everything has been postponed to 2015 (except for Deadpool 3) while they work out what, if anything, they can do to fix this.
That was a direct quote from BBC...but I believe drop off is very fast after opening weekend for films that flop. It goes to zero fast.
To cover cost of promotion, distribution, etc etc etc, I believe rough rule of thumb is they spend cost of movie again on advertising / promotion etc, and with all revenue deals, you basically need 3-4x the headline cost of production to get your money back on these mega blockbusters.
The economics of cinema are interesting. In the long-ish run, it's generally very hard to actually lose money on a film, for the major studios at least. The issue is more the opportunity cost of not releasing a more profitable one.
On Marvel, I wonder if we're over the audience fatigue curve now. I can't judge as I'm not a superhero film person so the whole thing has more or less passed me by (the couple of Marvel films that I have seen have struck me as slick, but bloated and confusing).
Hollywood may need to find a new cash cow before too long though.
94% of people won’t give a toss about the Cameron appointment
4% will be annoyed; 2% pleased
I mean, Cameron has near universal name recognition (according to Yougov) and pretty bad favourability ratings, so I don't see this doing nothing. A few Tories who were put off by the headbangers, like TSE, may go back - but I think a similar number of culture war / Back Boris types will see this as a step backwards and will stay home / vote UKRef. LDs are taking it in their stride, arguing this shows the Tories are more worried about the blue wall losses to them than red wall losses to Labour - proving how weak they are. If that becomes the main line of attack, I could imagine LDs seeing a boost in the polls in some places.
Yes, I agree. It’s quite possible more conservative right wing voters will be lost by the Tories - than Remainery voters gained - thanks to all this
Its another death rattle of this Tory government: is all
The last time I looked around for an extra client (freelance writer) many listings included the stipulation that there was to be no AI generation involved.
I have recently lost a long term client to AI generation, however.
I Was Obama’s 2012 Campaign Manager. There’s No Need to Panic Over Biden. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/11/13/obama-2012-campaign-manager-advice-00126736 As you walk into my office, the first thing you see is a framed magazine cover. It’s not from the days of triumph — like in November 2012 when President Barack Obama won four more years, the campaign I ran. No, it’s from a dark day during that reelection campaign, back in 2011, when Nate Silver declared our campaign and President Obama “toast.”..
Superhero film The Marvels made just $47m (£38m) in its first weekend, in the US, making it the Marvel Cinematic Universe's lowest opening. In contrast, Avengers: Endgame made box office history in 2019 by taking a record-breaking $1.2bn (£980m) in global ticket sales in its opening run.
Ouch....
Whilst I am well aware of The Marvels' AAARGH! numbers, you are not comparing like-to-like
Domestic (US&Canada) gross for first weekend
The Marvels: $47,000,000
Avengers:Endgame: $357,115,007
At a guess, given the international numbers and a slightly better decay curve than you'd expect, it'll probably make its net budget back so they'll be able to claim a nominal success. But that ignores the cost of promotion etc so it'll probably end up losing what, 100-200million? In pre-Covid times they'd have made up the loss with another film, but still-low post-Covid attendance and superhero fatigue in general and MCU fatigue in particular makes it bad news for Marvel. Everything has been postponed to 2015 (except for Deadpool 3) while they work out what, if anything, they can do to fix this.
94% of people won’t give a toss about the Cameron appointment
4% will be annoyed; 2% pleased
I mean, Cameron has near universal name recognition (according to Yougov) and pretty bad favourability ratings, so I don't see this doing nothing. A few Tories who were put off by the headbangers, like TSE, may go back - but I think a similar number of culture war / Back Boris types will see this as a step backwards and will stay home / vote UKRef. LDs are taking it in their stride, arguing this shows the Tories are more worried about the blue wall losses to them than red wall losses to Labour - proving how weak they are. If that becomes the main line of attack, I could imagine LDs seeing a boost in the polls in some places.
Yes, I agree. It’s quite possible more conservative right wing voters will be lost by the Tories - than Remainery voters gained - thanks to all this
Its another death rattle of this Tory government: is all
Indeed, if Braverman's departure and Cameron's return sees even more redwall voters who voted for Boris in 2019 go back to Labour and hardcore Leavers go ReformUK that will increase Labour's chances of a majority yet further. Unless the shift of the Tories back in a more centrist, socially liberal direction wins back some voters from the LDs and Labour in the bluewall to the Tories who voted for Cameron in 2010 and 2015
It is still early days but it would be good if this marked the start of the marginalisation of the populist Tory right. They have not produced good governance, or stability, or prosperity, or social cohesion. They have left us more divided, more angry, more broken, less well governed. They had their chance.
It is too early to prophesy their demise. In particular, I fear what happens after the GE. But if Sunak does clear house then perhaps it’s the best thing he can do with the time remaining to him.
I’d withdraw the whip from the most egregiously dog-whistle-y types, to be frank. Suella can’t be leader if she’s not in the party.
Brilliant. So that leaves us with 3 main parties all fighting over a tiny patch of centre ground with high tax, high spend, high immigration, and zero choice for voters
I’m not a big fan of Braverman - she’s clumsy and naive and “lifestyle choice” was egregiously offensive - but there is a vast chunk of voters who REALLY DO want immigration drastically reduced, the boats stopped at the coast, Wokeness pushed back (in all its forms) &c &c
For all her faults Suella spoke to those people and seemed to get it; she was also ballsy enough to take on liberal media. Who is left, to do this, and to speak to those voters?
The Tories abandon them at their peril. Because, if the Tories are just going to be Posh Labour then we might as well vote Labour as they are less annoying
Lee Anderson is your man: "if they don't like it here they can fuck off back to France".
Superhero film The Marvels made just $47m (£38m) in its first weekend, in the US, making it the Marvel Cinematic Universe's lowest opening. In contrast, Avengers: Endgame made box office history in 2019 by taking a record-breaking $1.2bn (£980m) in global ticket sales in its opening run.
Ouch....
Whilst I am well aware of The Marvels' AAARGH! numbers, you are not comparing like-to-like
Domestic (US&Canada) gross for first weekend
The Marvels: $47,000,000
Avengers:Endgame: $357,115,007
At a guess, given the international numbers and a slightly better decay curve than you'd expect, it'll probably make its net budget back so they'll be able to claim a nominal success. But that ignores the cost of promotion etc so it'll probably end up losing what, 100-200million? In pre-Covid times they'd have made up the loss with another film, but still-low post-Covid attendance and superhero fatigue in general and MCU fatigue in particular makes it bad news for Marvel. Everything has been postponed to 2015 (except for Deadpool 3) while they work out what, if anything, they can do to fix this.
That was a direct quote from BBC...but I believe drop off is very fast after opening weekend for films that flop. It goes to zero fast.
To cover cost of promotion, distribution, etc etc etc, I believe rough rule of thumb is they spend cost of movie again on advertising / promotion etc, and with all revenue deals, you basically need 3-4x the headline cost of production to get your money back on these mega blockbusters.
The economics of cinema are interesting. In the long-ish run, it's generally very hard to actually lose money on a film, for the major studios at least. The issue is more the opportunity cost of not releasing a more profitable one.
On Marvel, I wonder if we're over the audience fatigue curve now. I can't judge as I'm not a superhero film person so the whole thing has more or less passed me by (the couple of Marvel films that I have seen have struck me as slick, but bloated and confusing).
Hollywood may need to find a new cash cow before too long though.
Well on paper every movie loses movie, because its all accounting trickery to minimise taxes.....its the old pay for the IP of the brand ala Starbucks, pay OTT for the costumes from a company that is also owned by the film studio, etc etc etc.
This was actually an interesting video looking at modern avenues for long term incomes for movies,
Braverman gone, now Coffey gone as well, looks like Sunak is doing a bonfire of the remaining Trussites in his Cabinet. Coffey is said to be Truss' closest friend in Westminster.
Only Cleverly of those who backed Truss over Sunak in last year's leadership contest remains in a top government role
An unelected Etonian holding one of the great offices of state, and a (near) billionaire in number 10. In the middle of a cost of living crisis.
The optics, as they say, are not good.
Sky News are prattling on about lack of diversity already. All private school men....BADDDDDDDD
I was talking to someone who works in the civil service about this earlier last week: it is bad in the sense it narrows the horizon of discussion. Apparently during the talks about the nature of lockdown, there was no discussion on how to mitigate any potential rise in domestic abuse due to the policy and it took a woman in Cabinet to bring it up before anyone even thought to mention it.
Well it's broader even than that. It was broadly assumed that everyone was a white collar professional who had a house and could work from home. I mean, I guess government knew that delivery drivers and warehouse clerks existed, and that people lived in flats or househares. But everyone assumes their own experience is typical.
94% of people won’t give a toss about the Cameron appointment
4% will be annoyed; 2% pleased
Just as an aside. I had to explain to my wife this morning that Braverman was sacked in part due to her comments on the pro-Palestinian marches this week.
She said: what pro-Palestinian marches?
Just a reminder that very few follow politics as closely as well do, or even necessarily what's headlining the news.
Yes when my son came back from hanging out on the south bank with his mates on Saturday I asked him if there were any problems related to the demos and he said what demos.
Coffey entered Number 10 hours ago. Perhaps Rishi offered her a job she turned down and they've been negotiating since. If she was always going to be sacked it would have taken five minutes and it would not have needed a Downing Street meeting.
Braverman gone, now Coffey gone as well, looks like Sunak is doing a bonfire of the remaining Trussites in his Cabinet. Coffey is said to be Truss' closest friend in Westminster
It is still early days but it would be good if this marked the start of the marginalisation of the populist Tory right. They have not produced good governance, or stability, or prosperity, or social cohesion. They have left us more divided, more angry, more broken, less well governed. They had their chance.
It is too early to prophesy their demise. In particular, I fear what happens after the GE. But if Sunak does clear house then perhaps it’s the best thing he can do with the time remaining to him.
I’d withdraw the whip from the most egregiously dog-whistle-y types, to be frank. Suella can’t be leader if she’s not in the party.
Brilliant. So that leaves us with 3 main parties all fighting over a tiny patch of centre ground with high tax, high spend, high immigration, and zero choice for voters
I’m not a big fan of Braverman - she’s clumsy and naive and “lifestyle choice” was egregiously offensive - but there is a vast chunk of voters who REALLY DO want immigration drastically reduced, the boats stopped at the coast, Wokeness pushed back (in all its forms) &c &c
For all her faults Suella spoke to those people and seemed to get it; she was also ballsy enough to take on liberal media. Who is left, to do this, and to speak to those voters?
The Tories abandon them at their peril. Because, if the Tories are just going to be Posh Labour then we might as well vote Labour as they are less annoying
I want a centrist Tory Party because that’s where my sensibilities lie. On the centre right. To that extent I don’t much care about a lot of the more populist right wing talking points, save I have a dislike of identity politics in general (but not sure attacking people as tofu-eating wokies is the best way of winning over hearts and minds on that front).
To me, I want a sensible centre right party that can provide competent and stable governance. It doesn’t really bother me that it might upset some people on the right, in a same way that if I was a centre left voter I think I’d be rather relieved that Starmer is exorcising the ghost of Corbyn. All parties are coalitions, and yes from time to time some red meat needs to be thrown to those at the more right-or-left fringes, but it shouldn’t be the main focus of modern government.
Being told that one of the reasons a significant number of Ministers are asking to step down now is because ACOBA rules require 6 month hiatus before taking up certain jobs. Clearly believe we’re looking at May election.
1. This will probably be the only major planned reshuffle before the election, so it's now-or-never for those seeking to leave. They don't get to pick 'next Feb/March', in anticipation of an autumn election, if there isn't a reshuffle then. Not if they plan on acting loyally, anyway.
2. It's backing both horses. It's preparing *in case* there's a Spring election, with their actions also setting them up for post-parliamentary life if it's later than May.
I Was Obama’s 2012 Campaign Manager. There’s No Need to Panic Over Biden. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/11/13/obama-2012-campaign-manager-advice-00126736 As you walk into my office, the first thing you see is a framed magazine cover. It’s not from the days of triumph — like in November 2012 when President Barack Obama won four more years, the campaign I ran. No, it’s from a dark day during that reelection campaign, back in 2011, when Nate Silver declared our campaign and President Obama “toast.”..
2012 and 2024 are different; Trump is not Romney, Biden is not Obama, and the USA and world are entirely different. Romney, for example, would have signed up for cutting social security and medicare and medicaid - things Trump will not touch because he knows they're broadly popular. Romney was the GOPs superego, Trump is their id.
Biden is also not the first black President, a man with amazing rhetorical skills or a photogenic manner. Biden's core policy, the IRA, whilst not as hated as Obamacare is not as clearly beneficial to the base of the party as Obamacare was. Biden also doesn't have the media operation Obama had - you can see that Biden's big slump started when the MSM turned against him due to his withdrawal from Afghanistan, he hasn't recovered since.
Superhero film The Marvels made just $47m (£38m) in its first weekend, in the US, making it the Marvel Cinematic Universe's lowest opening. In contrast, Avengers: Endgame made box office history in 2019 by taking a record-breaking $1.2bn (£980m) in global ticket sales in its opening run.
Ouch....
Whilst I am well aware of The Marvels' AAARGH! numbers, you are not comparing like-to-like
Domestic (US&Canada) gross for first weekend
The Marvels: $47,000,000
Avengers:Endgame: $357,115,007
At a guess, given the international numbers and a slightly better decay curve than you'd expect, it'll probably make its net budget back so they'll be able to claim a nominal success. But that ignores the cost of promotion etc so it'll probably end up losing what, 100-200million? In pre-Covid times they'd have made up the loss with another film, but still-low post-Covid attendance and superhero fatigue in general and MCU fatigue in particular makes it bad news for Marvel. Everything has been postponed to 2015 (except for Deadpool 3) while they work out what, if anything, they can do to fix this.
Dave's resurrection pretty much signals the end of the Tories' regarding Brexit as having any worth whatsoever. If Rishi thought it was a political selling point at all he wouldn't appoint the man who sacrificed everything to thwart it. Rishi is desperate to make us all think that Brexit and Boris simply never happened.
Coffey entered Number 10 hours ago. Perhaps Rishi offered her a job she turned down and they've been negotiating since. If she was always going to be sacked it would have taken five minutes and it would not have needed a Downing Street meeting.
Sky saying she wasn't offered another job and left by the back door
94% of people won’t give a toss about the Cameron appointment
4% will be annoyed; 2% pleased
I mean, Cameron has near universal name recognition (according to Yougov) and pretty bad favourability ratings, so I don't see this doing nothing. A few Tories who were put off by the headbangers, like TSE, may go back - but I think a similar number of culture war / Back Boris types will see this as a step backwards and will stay home / vote UKRef. LDs are taking it in their stride, arguing this shows the Tories are more worried about the blue wall losses to them than red wall losses to Labour - proving how weak they are. If that becomes the main line of attack, I could imagine LDs seeing a boost in the polls in some places.
Yes, I agree. It’s quite possible more conservative right wing voters will be lost by the Tories - than Remainery voters gained - thanks to all this
Its another death rattle of this Tory government: is all
Indeed, if Braverman's departure and Cameron's return sees even more redwall voters who voted for Boris in 2019 go back to Labour and hardcore Leavers go ReformUK that will increase Labour's chances of a majority yet further. Unless the shift of the Tories back in a more centrist, socially liberal direction wins back some voters from the LDs and Labour in the bluewall to the Tories who voted for Cameron in 2010 and 2015
The appointment of Cameron is tactically clever - it distracts from the Braverman thing - and strategically stupid. It is highly likely to irritate people, remind Remainers of Brexit, remind the WWC of Tory poshness, and alienate right wing/antiWoke voters
Coffey entered Number 10 hours ago. Perhaps Rishi offered her a job she turned down and they've been negotiating since. If she was always going to be sacked it would have taken five minutes and it would not have needed a Downing Street meeting.
Sky saying she wasn't offered another job and left by the back door
This move sets a precedent for the return of Truss.
I guess you're joking! Sunak had an unusual number of former prime ministers to choose from, and even then he went back to one that had moved to the Lords. Very few would go back to the previous PM from whom they won the seat. I can only think of Neville Chamberlain serving under Churchill.
Douglas-Home served under Heath, and Heath was prepared to serve under Thatcher, though she didn't accept the offer.
There are plenty of pre-WW2 examples too. In the first half of the 20th century, MacDonald served in Baldwin's third term, while Baldwin himself served in MacDonald's second (though that's a special case given the coalition nature and that Baldwin's Tories contained an overwhelming majority of the MPs). Lloyd George returned to a united Liberal Party under Asquith's leadership in 1923, which obviously didn't form a government but came much closer to doing so than is now remembered, while Balfour served in several subsequent governments.
Thatcher offered Heath Ambassador to DC which he refused, then sulked on the backbenches for 15 years until Thatcher was toppled as leader by Tory MPs in 1990 when he told his staff 'rejoice, rejoice, rejoice' and opened a bottle of champagne before going back to sulking again
Do we think that we will see some Tory MPs go over to RefUK before the GE?
I could see Suella imagining it is a good route to Tory Leader: be RefUK leader in Parliament / leader, keep her seat on her personal brand, and use it as a way to go back into the Tory party by joining the rump Tory MPs left and RefUK together. (Whether that's realistic or not, I doubt, but she might believe it)
Hezbollah attacks will not be allowed to continue, warns Israel Israel warned Lebanon it was poised to intensify strikes along the border after Hezbollah wounded civilians in a missile attack.
“The IDF has operational plans for changing the security situation in the north,” said Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, the Israeli military’s spokesman.
“Lebanon’s citizens will bear the cost of this recklessness, and of Hezbollah’s decision to be the defender of Hamas-ISIS,” he added.
Superhero film The Marvels made just $47m (£38m) in its first weekend, in the US, making it the Marvel Cinematic Universe's lowest opening. In contrast, Avengers: Endgame made box office history in 2019 by taking a record-breaking $1.2bn (£980m) in global ticket sales in its opening run.
Ouch....
I don’t know how much that reflects The Marvels and how much that reflects broader audience views of Marvel after a mixed set of releases, and a reduced promo cycle because of the actors’ strikes.
I thought the film was so-so. Not the worst, but third quartile. That said, the kitten scene was tops.
It is still early days but it would be good if this marked the start of the marginalisation of the populist Tory right. They have not produced good governance, or stability, or prosperity, or social cohesion. They have left us more divided, more angry, more broken, less well governed. They had their chance.
It is too early to prophesy their demise. In particular, I fear what happens after the GE. But if Sunak does clear house then perhaps it’s the best thing he can do with the time remaining to him.
I’d withdraw the whip from the most egregiously dog-whistle-y types, to be frank. Suella can’t be leader if she’s not in the party.
Brilliant. So that leaves us with 3 main parties all fighting over a tiny patch of centre ground with high tax, high spend, high immigration, and zero choice for voters
I’m not a big fan of Braverman - she’s clumsy and naive and “lifestyle choice” was egregiously offensive - but there is a vast chunk of voters who REALLY DO want immigration drastically reduced, the boats stopped at the coast, Wokeness pushed back (in all its forms) &c &c
For all her faults Suella spoke to those people and seemed to get it; she was also ballsy enough to take on liberal media. Who is left, to do this, and to speak to those voters?
The Tories abandon them at their peril. Because, if the Tories are just going to be Posh Labour then we might as well vote Labour as they are less annoying
Lee Anderson is your man: "if they don't like it here they can fuck off back to France".
I shall very much enjoy Anderson losing his seat next year. Which he will.
(Although I probably won't get to enjoy it live due to Wakefield Council's inability to complete a count within about 6 hours).
Dave's resurrection pretty much signals the end of the Tories' regarding Brexit as having any worth whatsoever. If Rishi thought it was a political selling point at all he wouldn't appoint the man who sacrificed everything to thwart it. Rishi is desperate to make us all think that Brexit and Boris simply never happened.
How did he sacrifice everything to thwart it? He enabled it and then resigned because he was on the losing side of the referendum HE called.
If he had been trying to thwart it he would have carried on as PM and tried to undermine the referendum result.
He is in Australia preparing himself to be voted by the public to eat Kangaroo bollocks live on ITV every night......
Haha, what a clown.
If DecrepiterJohnL is right and he is getting £1.5m, I would suggest the joke is on ITV.
Well, if you value money that much. Personally, I'd need to be on my uppers to take a deal like that. And Farage is hardly on his uppers.
I find the pursuit of money for money's sake bizarre.
I thought part of the claim for closing his Coutts account was a) he didn't have anywhere near as much money as required and b) it had gone down recently.
I always wonder how much he is on at GB News.
I don't disagree though that there is something very sad about the Galloways, Hancocks, Farages, etc of this world going on these shows. Hancock midlife crisis is particularly vomit inducing. Its one thing getting caught having an affair with a university friend, you lose your job, disappear off the public stage and that the end of that...but instead he is on all these reality shows, doing cringe TikToks etc.
Hancock was runner up in Celebrity SAS, just beaten by Gareth Gates
Given Cameron's electoral record, that sounds right. Even after the GFC Cameron turned a clear poll lead into a hung parliament.
He won four out of five general elections and plebiscites.
Edit in 2010 he made the second most net gains by a LOTO since WWII.
Only just and he lost ground in every campaign, almost losing Scotland until saved by Gordon Brown and Ruth Davidson, losing Brexit against the polling, turning a clear lead into a hung parliament in 2010. Cameron's campaigning record is appalling; he goes 100% negative and it doesn't work. And GE2015 only looks good because the SNP swept Labour out of Scotland.
I think he gained ground in 2015? Though the polls were that far out it's hard to say.
But yes, Cameron was generally a much more effective campaigner in the period before the campaign proper started than during it - his strategic campaigning was generally on the mark; his tactical campaigning much less so.
This is absurd! He lost a Brexit referendum he didn’t have to call, and which should have been the easiest win
By his own terms, he was the most calamitous Prime Minister since Chamberlain. That is not “strategically on the mark”
It’s like saying Hitler was a pretty good German leader because of his pro-motorist agenda
The Brexit referendum was coming - there was no way of avoiding it sooner or later.
In fact, it became the full monty because for over 20 years various UK governments had been dodging them on the treaties.
Well yes, but it's still pretty remarkable that he lost it. Brexit was never really a majority position at any time between 1974 up until about two weeks before the date of the referendum. It would be like calling a referendum on the monarchy and losing that. He alienated people on his own side and convinced no-one on the other side. Waverers were turned into leavers.
As PM's go, I didn't mind him. But he wasn't great at convincing electorates.
94% of people won’t give a toss about the Cameron appointment
4% will be annoyed; 2% pleased
I mean, Cameron has near universal name recognition (according to Yougov) and pretty bad favourability ratings, so I don't see this doing nothing. A few Tories who were put off by the headbangers, like TSE, may go back - but I think a similar number of culture war / Back Boris types will see this as a step backwards and will stay home / vote UKRef. LDs are taking it in their stride, arguing this shows the Tories are more worried about the blue wall losses to them than red wall losses to Labour - proving how weak they are. If that becomes the main line of attack, I could imagine LDs seeing a boost in the polls in some places.
Yes, I agree. It’s quite possible more conservative right wing voters will be lost by the Tories - than Remainery voters gained - thanks to all this
Its another death rattle of this Tory government: is all
Scotland is one area he might be looked on favourably by non-indy voters as 'The man who called Salmond's bluff and saved the Union'
He is in Australia preparing himself to be voted by the public to eat Kangaroo bollocks live on ITV every night......
Haha, what a clown.
If DecrepiterJohnL is right and he is getting £1.5m, I would suggest the joke is on ITV.
Well, if you value money that much. Personally, I'd need to be on my uppers to take a deal like that. And Farage is hardly on his uppers.
I find the pursuit of money for money's sake bizarre.
I thought part of the claim for closing his Coutts account was a) he didn't have anywhere near as much money as required and b) it had gone down recently.
I always wonder how much he is on at GB News.
I don't disagree though that there is something very sad about the Galloways, Hancocks, Farages, etc of this world going on these shows. Hancock midlife crisis is particularly vomit inducing. Its one thing getting caught having an affair with a university friend, you lose your job, disappear off the public stage and that the end of that...but instead he is on all these reality shows, doing cringe TikToks etc.
Hancock was runner up in Celebrity SAS, just beaten by Gareth Gates
Telegraph insta-poll on sacking of Braverman. 60,000 votes
Telegraph readers not happy, at all. Yes it’s a voodoo poll but it’s bad news for Sunak
Even this previously pro-immigration, liberal Tory isn't impressed:
This weekend we saw people marching with Hamas-style headbands, carrying antisemitic signs and chanting that “the army of Mohammed will return”. So naturally the Prime Minister decides to get rid of the Home Secretary who is trying to stop it.
Superhero film The Marvels made just $47m (£38m) in its first weekend, in the US, making it the Marvel Cinematic Universe's lowest opening. In contrast, Avengers: Endgame made box office history in 2019 by taking a record-breaking $1.2bn (£980m) in global ticket sales in its opening run.
Ouch....
Whilst I am well aware of The Marvels' AAARGH! numbers, you are not comparing like-to-like
Domestic (US&Canada) gross for first weekend
The Marvels: $47,000,000
Avengers:Endgame: $357,115,007
At a guess, given the international numbers and a slightly better decay curve than you'd expect, it'll probably make its net budget back so they'll be able to claim a nominal success. But that ignores the cost of promotion etc so it'll probably end up losing what, 100-200million? In pre-Covid times they'd have made up the loss with another film, but still-low post-Covid attendance and superhero fatigue in general and MCU fatigue in particular makes it bad news for Marvel. Everything has been postponed to 2015 (except for Deadpool 3) while they work out what, if anything, they can do to fix this.
My problem with the MCU is that there's too much of it. I didn't mind going to the cinema a couple of times a year to watch a film set in the universe. I quite liked it when Agents of Shield came on the TV, and Agent Carter was cool.
But then the last series of AoS was not shown on Channel 4 (I think because they wanted it on Disney+), so I never watched it. And they produced many other series as well, and worse; the "Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special" was needed to understand some of the minor stuff that was going on in GoG3.
They want to do this to make me get Disney+. The problem for them is it just pushes me away from watching anything Marvel, including at the cinema.
Whatever you think of David Cameron you have to admire his sense of duty.
He hasn't undermined the government (unlike some of his successors) over
Yes it must be tough for him, having to become a Lord, with a cushy spot for life, and in the meantime do a really interesting job that means flying around the world First Class and having foreigners fawn over you
He's taking a job (might even be unpaid) in the fag-end of a very unpopular government, and he will get brickbats the whole time. The media outings won't be enjoyable.
He didn't have to do it, he will be away from his family and kids a lot, the world isn't pretty at the moment, and there are far easier and more lucrative options for him out there.
True, but a peerage and some attention at the top of politics again will reopen some doors as well.
Cameron will probably shore up the blue wall and piss off the red one.
That'll be the theory, and they'd take that at this point, but why would it? Cameron as FS won't change the policies the Blue Wall has an issue with, and he's so obviously a stop gap option that will it change perceptions of Sunak?
An unelected Etonian holding one of the great offices of state, and a (near) billionaire in number 10. In the middle of a cost of living crisis.
The optics, as they say, are not good.
A Wykehamist as PM, an Etonian as Foreign Secretary and a Carthusian as Chancellor, all educated at Oxford for university (only Cleverly not major public school, only minor private school and non Oxbridge).
Looks like the highest concentration of top public/private school and Oxford alumni in the great offices of state since Macmillan's cabinet, with some new money too from Sunak's wife's family
Interesting choice of Cameron for Foreign Sec. He's more than capable, but the appointment also seems to demonstrate that there's nobody in the PCP that's either up to it, or who wanted to accept a role in the SUNK Cabinet.
Quite so. It's been very successfully newsworthy, but implies even more difficulties.
It is still early days but it would be good if this marked the start of the marginalisation of the populist Tory right. They have not produced good governance, or stability, or prosperity, or social cohesion. They have left us more divided, more angry, more broken, less well governed. They had their chance.
It is too early to prophesy their demise. In particular, I fear what happens after the GE. But if Sunak does clear house then perhaps it’s the best thing he can do with the time remaining to him.
I’d withdraw the whip from the most egregiously dog-whistle-y types, to be frank. Suella can’t be leader if she’s not in the party.
What does this mean for relations with Europe? The man who opposed Brexit is now in charge of relations with the EU. Possibility of deals, like regulatory alignment?
I Was Obama’s 2012 Campaign Manager. There’s No Need to Panic Over Biden. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/11/13/obama-2012-campaign-manager-advice-00126736 As you walk into my office, the first thing you see is a framed magazine cover. It’s not from the days of triumph — like in November 2012 when President Barack Obama won four more years, the campaign I ran. No, it’s from a dark day during that reelection campaign, back in 2011, when Nate Silver declared our campaign and President Obama “toast.”..
2012 and 2024 are different; Trump is not Romney, Biden is not Obama, and the USA and world are entirely different. Romney, for example, would have signed up for cutting social security and medicare and medicaid - things Trump will not touch because he knows they're broadly popular. Romney was the GOPs superego, Trump is their id.
Biden is also not the first black President, a man with amazing rhetorical skills or a photogenic manner. Biden's core policy, the IRA, whilst not as hated as Obamacare is not as clearly beneficial to the base of the party as Obamacare was. Biden also doesn't have the media operation Obama had - you can see that Biden's big slump started when the MSM turned against him due to his withdrawal from Afghanistan, he hasn't recovered since.
I shall have to raise my working estimate of your IQ (you’re welcome). That’s a very cogent, lucid, articulate analysis of Biden’s problems in comparison to Obama
I agree entirely. Biden is in real trouble; Obama was not
Superhero film The Marvels made just $47m (£38m) in its first weekend, in the US, making it the Marvel Cinematic Universe's lowest opening. In contrast, Avengers: Endgame made box office history in 2019 by taking a record-breaking $1.2bn (£980m) in global ticket sales in its opening run.
Ouch....
Whilst I am well aware of The Marvels' AAARGH! numbers, you are not comparing like-to-like
Domestic (US&Canada) gross for first weekend
The Marvels: $47,000,000
Avengers:Endgame: $357,115,007
At a guess, given the international numbers and a slightly better decay curve than you'd expect, it'll probably make its net budget back so they'll be able to claim a nominal success. But that ignores the cost of promotion etc so it'll probably end up losing what, 100-200million? In pre-Covid times they'd have made up the loss with another film, but still-low post-Covid attendance and superhero fatigue in general and MCU fatigue in particular makes it bad news for Marvel. Everything has been postponed to 2015 (except for Deadpool 3) while they work out what, if anything, they can do to fix this.
My problem with the MCU is that there's too much of it. I didn't mind going to the cinema a couple of times a year to watch a film set in the universe. I quite liked it when Agents of Shield came on the TV, and Agent Carter was cool.
But then the last series of AoS was not shown on Channel 4 (I think because they wanted it on Disney+), so I never watched it. And they produced many other series as well, and worse; the "Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special" was needed to understand some of the minor stuff that was going on in GoG3.
They want to do this to make me get Disney+. The problem for them is it just pushes me away from watching anything Marvel, including at the cinema.
Its a huge problem across Disney, this carpet bombing of movies / shows from the IP they own. How many Star Wars shows have been made and are in the pipeline. Nobody cares now. Its not special. The quality isn't there, its all filler.
In fact the best one was Andor, and they kept that in the can for 2 years as they didn't think it fitted with the brand.
Its the opposite of the golden age of telly when HBO were making the classics.
Superhero film The Marvels made just $47m (£38m) in its first weekend, in the US, making it the Marvel Cinematic Universe's lowest opening. In contrast, Avengers: Endgame made box office history in 2019 by taking a record-breaking $1.2bn (£980m) in global ticket sales in its opening run.
Ouch....
I don’t know how much that reflects The Marvels and how much that reflects broader audience views of Marvel after a mixed set of releases, and a reduced promo cycle because of the actors’ strikes.
I thought the film was so-so. Not the worst, but third quartile. That said, the kitten scene was tops.
There seems to be a lot of hatred of Brie Larson. I don’t really get it, except that I guess a lot of men like Marvel and she’s, well, quite a girlie girl. Which I personally like.
Telegraph insta-poll on sacking of Braverman. 60,000 votes
Telegraph readers not happy, at all. Yes it’s a voodoo poll but it’s bad news for Sunak
Even this previously pro-immigration, liberal Tory isn't impressed:
This weekend we saw people marching with Hamas-style headbands, carrying antisemitic signs and chanting that “the army of Mohammed will return”. So naturally the Prime Minister decides to get rid of the Home Secretary who is trying to stop it.
IMO the problem with Braverman is that a HS needs to be cool and collected. Like her or loathe her, May seemed to act calmy and collectedly to most things that happened in her HS role; and I can say the same for Blunkett. Braverman, particularly over the least week, has been all over the place in terms of messaging and policy.
It showed that she really wasn't up to being HS - even if her policy ideas were correct (they weren't).
Coffey entered Number 10 hours ago. Perhaps Rishi offered her a job she turned down and they've been negotiating since. If she was always going to be sacked it would have taken five minutes and it would not have needed a Downing Street meeting.
Sky saying she wasn't offered another job and left by the back door
An unelected Etonian holding one of the great offices of state, and a (near) billionaire in number 10. In the middle of a cost of living crisis.
The optics, as they say, are not good.
A Wykehamist as PM, an Etonian as Foreign Secretary and a Carthusian as Chancellor, all educated at Oxford for university (only Cleverly not major public school, only minor private school and non Oxbridge).
Looks like the highest concentration of top public/private school and Oxford alumni in the great offices of state since Macmillan's cabinet, with some new money too from Sunak's wife's family
Yeah, the Tories can fuck off, after this. The more I think about it the angrier I get
I wasn’t gonna vote for them anyway, but now I’m not going to vote for them with real venom. Tossers
I Was Obama’s 2012 Campaign Manager. There’s No Need to Panic Over Biden. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/11/13/obama-2012-campaign-manager-advice-00126736 As you walk into my office, the first thing you see is a framed magazine cover. It’s not from the days of triumph — like in November 2012 when President Barack Obama won four more years, the campaign I ran. No, it’s from a dark day during that reelection campaign, back in 2011, when Nate Silver declared our campaign and President Obama “toast.”..
2012 and 2024 are different; Trump is not Romney, Biden is not Obama, and the USA and world are entirely different. Romney, for example, would have signed up for cutting social security and medicare and medicaid - things Trump will not touch because he knows they're broadly popular. Romney was the GOPs superego, Trump is their id.
Biden is also not the first black President, a man with amazing rhetorical skills or a photogenic manner. Biden's core policy, the IRA, whilst not as hated as Obamacare is not as clearly beneficial to the base of the party as Obamacare was. Biden also doesn't have the media operation Obama had - you can see that Biden's big slump started when the MSM turned against him due to his withdrawal from Afghanistan, he hasn't recovered since.
And yet the Democrats have done considerably better in the midterms than during either of Obama's terms of office - and the single most important thing, the economy, is performing much better than was the case in 2011.
14 years of tired tories and the man who brought us the biggest f*ck up in this nation’s history is back with his fizzog on the gogglebox.
That’ll be the nation’s weary assessment if they can be bothered at all, which I doubt.
The die is cast. Voters’ minds are made up.
’Tis over for the tories and no amount of Lazarene resurrections can save them now. Not even Boris.
So, it's only taken you three hours to change your tune?
No no. You should read a little more judiciously CR.
I have made a clear distinction between the fortunes of the nation and the fortunes of the party. Look back and you will see that this was crystal clear in my posts.
That I think it is, actually, a very good appointment is not the point. It’s only nerds on here (incl me) who may feel like that.
For the party in the country at large it will either make no difference whatsoever, or impact negatively.
p.s. before rushing next time to being rude, check carefully x
Telegraph insta-poll on sacking of Braverman. 60,000 votes
Telegraph readers not happy, at all. Yes it’s a voodoo poll but it’s bad news for Sunak
Even this previously pro-immigration, liberal Tory isn't impressed:
This weekend we saw people marching with Hamas-style headbands, carrying antisemitic signs and chanting that “the army of Mohammed will return”. So naturally the Prime Minister decides to get rid of the Home Secretary who is trying to stop it.
IMO the problem with Braverman is that a HS needs to be cool and collected. Like her or loathe her, May seemed to act calmy and collectedly to most things that happened in her HS role; and I can say the same for Blunkett. Braverman, particularly over the least week, has been all over the place in terms of messaging and policy.
It showed that she really wasn't up to being HS - even if her policy ideas were correct (they weren't).
Yes, if you want a HS who will genuinely take tough action, it's probably better if they avoid the rhetoric and just get on with it while presenting a conciliatory image.
I Was Obama’s 2012 Campaign Manager. There’s No Need to Panic Over Biden. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/11/13/obama-2012-campaign-manager-advice-00126736 As you walk into my office, the first thing you see is a framed magazine cover. It’s not from the days of triumph — like in November 2012 when President Barack Obama won four more years, the campaign I ran. No, it’s from a dark day during that reelection campaign, back in 2011, when Nate Silver declared our campaign and President Obama “toast.”..
2012 and 2024 are different; Trump is not Romney, Biden is not Obama, and the USA and world are entirely different. Romney, for example, would have signed up for cutting social security and medicare and medicaid - things Trump will not touch because he knows they're broadly popular. Romney was the GOPs superego, Trump is their id.
Biden is also not the first black President, a man with amazing rhetorical skills or a photogenic manner. Biden's core policy, the IRA, whilst not as hated as Obamacare is not as clearly beneficial to the base of the party as Obamacare was. Biden also doesn't have the media operation Obama had - you can see that Biden's big slump started when the MSM turned against him due to his withdrawal from Afghanistan, he hasn't recovered since.
I shall have to raise my working estimate of your IQ (you’re welcome). That’s a very cogent, lucid, articulate analysis of Biden’s problems in comparison to Obama
I agree entirely. Biden is in real trouble; Obama was not
Romney led polls against Obama in 2010 and early 2011 until the economy and Obama recovered
Coffey entered Number 10 hours ago. Perhaps Rishi offered her a job she turned down and they've been negotiating since. If she was always going to be sacked it would have taken five minutes and it would not have needed a Downing Street meeting.
Sky saying she wasn't offered another job and left by the back door
Superhero film The Marvels made just $47m (£38m) in its first weekend, in the US, making it the Marvel Cinematic Universe's lowest opening. In contrast, Avengers: Endgame made box office history in 2019 by taking a record-breaking $1.2bn (£980m) in global ticket sales in its opening run.
Ouch....
Whilst I am well aware of The Marvels' AAARGH! numbers, you are not comparing like-to-like
Domestic (US&Canada) gross for first weekend
The Marvels: $47,000,000
Avengers:Endgame: $357,115,007
At a guess, given the international numbers and a slightly better decay curve than you'd expect, it'll probably make its net budget back so they'll be able to claim a nominal success. But that ignores the cost of promotion etc so it'll probably end up losing what, 100-200million? In pre-Covid times they'd have made up the loss with another film, but still-low post-Covid attendance and superhero fatigue in general and MCU fatigue in particular makes it bad news for Marvel. Everything has been postponed to 2015 (except for Deadpool 3) while they work out what, if anything, they can do to fix this.
My problem with the MCU is that there's too much of it. I didn't mind going to the cinema a couple of times a year to watch a film set in the universe. I quite liked it when Agents of Shield came on the TV, and Agent Carter was cool.
But then the last series of AoS was not shown on Channel 4 (I think because they wanted it on Disney+), so I never watched it. And they produced many other series as well, and worse; the "Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special" was needed to understand some of the minor stuff that was going on in GoG3.
They want to do this to make me get Disney+. The problem for them is it just pushes me away from watching anything Marvel, including at the cinema.
Exactly. The last lot of movies, Guardians aside, have been pretty bad (mostly just bland) , but it's the content overload that's killed them - even big fans have not watched it all and it ruins enthusiasm.
But it was a very good run at dominating the Box Office for over 10 years, so well done even if they seem to have forgotten how to write or plan movies all of a sudden.
Do we think that we will see some Tory MPs go over to RefUK before the GE?
I could see Suella imagining it is a good route to Tory Leader: be RefUK leader in Parliament / leader, keep her seat on her personal brand, and use it as a way to go back into the Tory party by joining the rump Tory MPs left and RefUK together. (Whether that's realistic or not, I doubt, but she might believe it)
No but I could see Farage return as RefUK leader if this new Cabinet and the return of Cameron and sacking of Braverman pushes Reform over 10% in the polls
Superhero film The Marvels made just $47m (£38m) in its first weekend, in the US, making it the Marvel Cinematic Universe's lowest opening. In contrast, Avengers: Endgame made box office history in 2019 by taking a record-breaking $1.2bn (£980m) in global ticket sales in its opening run.
Ouch....
Whilst I am well aware of The Marvels' AAARGH! numbers, you are not comparing like-to-like
Domestic (US&Canada) gross for first weekend
The Marvels: $47,000,000
Avengers:Endgame: $357,115,007
At a guess, given the international numbers and a slightly better decay curve than you'd expect, it'll probably make its net budget back so they'll be able to claim a nominal success. But that ignores the cost of promotion etc so it'll probably end up losing what, 100-200million? In pre-Covid times they'd have made up the loss with another film, but still-low post-Covid attendance and superhero fatigue in general and MCU fatigue in particular makes it bad news for Marvel. Everything has been postponed to 2015 (except for Deadpool 3) while they work out what, if anything, they can do to fix this.
My problem with the MCU is that there's too much of it. I didn't mind going to the cinema a couple of times a year to watch a film set in the universe. I quite liked it when Agents of Shield came on the TV, and Agent Carter was cool.
But then the last series of AoS was not shown on Channel 4 (I think because they wanted it on Disney+), so I never watched it. And they produced many other series as well, and worse; the "Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special" was needed to understand some of the minor stuff that was going on in GoG3.
They want to do this to make me get Disney+. The problem for them is it just pushes me away from watching anything Marvel, including at the cinema.
Its a huge problem across Disney, this carpet bombing of movies / shows from the IP they own. How many Star Wars shows have been made and are in the pipeline. Nobody cares now. Its not special. The quality isn't there, its all filler.
In fact the best one was Andor, and they kept that in the can for 2 years as they didn't think it fitted with the brand.
Its the opposite of the golden age of telly when HBO were making the classics.
I can't remember who said it, but Star Wars needs a Star Trek (story of the week) type series to see what type of stories could work in that Universe.
Superhero film The Marvels made just $47m (£38m) in its first weekend, in the US, making it the Marvel Cinematic Universe's lowest opening. In contrast, Avengers: Endgame made box office history in 2019 by taking a record-breaking $1.2bn (£980m) in global ticket sales in its opening run.
Ouch....
Whilst I am well aware of The Marvels' AAARGH! numbers, you are not comparing like-to-like
Domestic (US&Canada) gross for first weekend
The Marvels: $47,000,000
Avengers:Endgame: $357,115,007
At a guess, given the international numbers and a slightly better decay curve than you'd expect, it'll probably make its net budget back so they'll be able to claim a nominal success. But that ignores the cost of promotion etc so it'll probably end up losing what, 100-200million? In pre-Covid times they'd have made up the loss with another film, but still-low post-Covid attendance and superhero fatigue in general and MCU fatigue in particular makes it bad news for Marvel. Everything has been postponed to 2015 (except for Deadpool 3) while they work out what, if anything, they can do to fix this.
My problem with the MCU is that there's too much of it. I didn't mind going to the cinema a couple of times a year to watch a film set in the universe. I quite liked it when Agents of Shield came on the TV, and Agent Carter was cool.
But then the last series of AoS was not shown on Channel 4 (I think because they wanted it on Disney+), so I never watched it. And they produced many other series as well, and worse; the "Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special" was needed to understand some of the minor stuff that was going on in GoG3.
They want to do this to make me get Disney+. The problem for them is it just pushes me away from watching anything Marvel, including at the cinema.
The Marvels is a sequel to three different D+ shows, yet you don’t have to seen any of them to watch it. My flatmate enjoyed it and she hadn’t watched all those shows.
1. Astonishing to think that for a brief moment, Thérèse Coffey was Deputy PM, and now she’s slung out with the trash like a nobody.
2. Like others, I doubt Cameron’s return will move any polling needles, but it will modestly signal to allies that Britain is de-crazing itself.
I also second the comment upthread that this indicates that Brexit is stone-cold as any kind of motivating policy. Indeed it probably marks another transition towards, well, not Remain, precisely — but perhaps “Switzerland”.
3. Cameron’s alleged Chinese leanings (actually, Osborne, like most of Cameron’s supposed policies) is interesting just as we see something of a US-China detente as Xi visits San Francisco.
Comments
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rachel_Maclean_(politician)
I’m not a big fan of Braverman - she’s clumsy and naive and “lifestyle choice” was egregiously offensive - but there is a vast chunk of voters who REALLY DO want immigration drastically reduced, the boats stopped at the coast, Wokeness pushed back (in all its forms) &c &c
For all her faults Suella spoke to those people and seemed to get it; she was also ballsy enough to take on liberal media. Who is left, to do this, and to speak to those voters?
The Tories abandon them at their peril. Because, if the Tories are just going to be Posh Labour then we might as well vote Labour as they are less annoying
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1724032224700370993
She said: what pro-Palestinian marches?
Just a reminder that very few follow politics as closely as well do, or even necessarily what's headlining the news.
1. This will probably be the only major planned reshuffle before the election, so it's now-or-never for those seeking to leave. They don't get to pick 'next Feb/March', in anticipation of an autumn election, if there isn't a reshuffle then. Not if they plan on acting loyally, anyway.
2. It's backing both horses. It's preparing *in case* there's a Spring election, with their actions also setting them up for post-parliamentary life if it's later than May.
When they ask the public most people struggle to get past PM and LOTO.
In fact, it became the full monty because for over 20 years various UK governments had been dodging them on the treaties.
On Marvel, I wonder if we're over the audience fatigue curve now. I can't judge as I'm not a superhero film person so the whole thing has more or less passed me by (the couple of Marvel films that I have seen have struck me as slick, but bloated and confusing).
Hollywood may need to find a new cash cow before too long though.
Its another death rattle of this Tory government: is all
I have recently lost a long term client to AI generation, however.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/11/13/obama-2012-campaign-manager-advice-00126736
As you walk into my office, the first thing you see is a framed magazine cover. It’s not from the days of triumph — like in November 2012 when President Barack Obama won four more years, the campaign I ran. No, it’s from a dark day during that reelection campaign, back in 2011, when Nate Silver declared our campaign and President Obama “toast.”..
I make frequent mistakes (obvs!) but I don't plagiarise and (as is obvious) I cite my sources whenever I can.
This was actually an interesting video looking at modern avenues for long term incomes for movies,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZ-eH8VaP3w&
I think its too much Marvel, too much super hero movies, too much shit of all of the above, too much Disney+ shit, too much shit....
Only Cleverly of those who backed Truss over Sunak in last year's leadership contest remains in a top government role
She could have some fun and defect to another party.
I mean, I guess government knew that delivery drivers and warehouse clerks existed, and that people lived in flats or househares. But everyone assumes their own experience is typical.
To me, I want a sensible centre right party that can provide competent and stable governance. It doesn’t really bother me that it might upset some people on the right, in a same way that if I was a centre left voter I think I’d be rather relieved that Starmer is exorcising the ghost of Corbyn. All parties are coalitions, and yes from time to time some red meat needs to be thrown to those at the more right-or-left fringes, but it shouldn’t be the main focus of modern government.
I wonder if the UK government will last long enough for Cameron to be forced to resign in some foreign lobbying scandal from his time out of office.
https://twitter.com/ariehkovler/status/1724006045935132876
Biden is also not the first black President, a man with amazing rhetorical skills or a photogenic manner. Biden's core policy, the IRA, whilst not as hated as Obamacare is not as clearly beneficial to the base of the party as Obamacare was. Biden also doesn't have the media operation Obama had - you can see that Biden's big slump started when the MSM turned against him due to his withdrawal from Afghanistan, he hasn't recovered since.
The Marvels: Superhero movie bombs with lowest MCU box office debut
https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-67401772
I could see Suella imagining it is a good route to Tory Leader: be RefUK leader in Parliament / leader, keep her seat on her personal brand, and use it as a way to go back into the Tory party by joining the rump Tory MPs left and RefUK together. (Whether that's realistic or not, I doubt, but she might believe it)
Israel warned Lebanon it was poised to intensify strikes along the border after Hezbollah wounded civilians in a missile attack.
“The IDF has operational plans for changing the security situation in the north,” said Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, the Israeli military’s spokesman.
“Lebanon’s citizens will bear the cost of this recklessness, and of Hezbollah’s decision to be the defender of Hamas-ISIS,” he added.
Certainly a possibility.
I thought the film was so-so. Not the worst, but third quartile. That said, the kitten scene was tops.
(Although I probably won't get to enjoy it live due to Wakefield Council's inability to complete a count within about 6 hours).
If he had been trying to thwart it he would have carried on as PM and tried to undermine the referendum result.
Telegraph readers not happy, at all. Yes it’s a voodoo poll but it’s bad news for Sunak
It would be like calling a referendum on the monarchy and losing that. He alienated people on his own side and convinced no-one on the other side. Waverers were turned into leavers.
As PM's go, I didn't mind him. But he wasn't great at convincing electorates.
That’ll be the nation’s weary assessment if they can be bothered at all, which I doubt.
The die is cast. Voters’ minds are made up.
’Tis over for the tories and no amount of Lazarene resurrections can save them now. Not even Boris.
This weekend we saw people marching with Hamas-style headbands, carrying antisemitic signs and chanting that “the army of Mohammed will return”. So naturally the Prime Minister decides to get rid of the Home Secretary who is trying to stop it.
https://x.com/bellawallerstei/status/1724026665481666587
But then the last series of AoS was not shown on Channel 4 (I think because they wanted it on Disney+), so I never watched it. And they produced many other series as well, and worse; the "Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special" was needed to understand some of the minor stuff that was going on in GoG3.
They want to do this to make me get Disney+. The problem for them is it just pushes me away from watching anything Marvel, including at the cinema.
Is Blair back?
Looks like the highest concentration of top public/private school and Oxford alumni in the great offices of state since Macmillan's cabinet, with some new money too from Sunak's wife's family
I agree entirely. Biden is in real trouble; Obama was not
Tories a mere 17 points behind in a couple of weeks, but no long term boost.
In fact the best one was Andor, and they kept that in the can for 2 years as they didn't think it fitted with the brand.
Its the opposite of the golden age of telly when HBO were making the classics.
It showed that she really wasn't up to being HS - even if her policy ideas were correct (they weren't).
I asked a former Cabinet minister if the party will swallow the appointment of David Cameron as Foreign Secretary. “There is no party at this stage”.
I wasn’t gonna vote for them anyway, but now I’m not going to vote for them with real venom. Tossers
I have made a clear distinction between the fortunes of the nation and the fortunes of the party. Look back and you will see that this was crystal clear in my posts.
That I think it is, actually, a very good appointment is not the point. It’s only nerds on here (incl me) who may feel like that.
For the party in the country at large it will either make no difference whatsoever, or impact negatively.
p.s. before rushing next time to being rude, check carefully x
But it was a very good run at dominating the Box Office for over 10 years, so well done even if they seem to have forgotten how to write or plan movies all of a sudden.
1.
Astonishing to think that for a brief moment, Thérèse Coffey was Deputy PM, and now she’s slung out with the trash like a nobody.
2.
Like others, I doubt Cameron’s return will move any polling needles, but it will modestly signal to allies that Britain is de-crazing itself.
I also second the comment upthread that this indicates that Brexit is stone-cold as any kind of motivating policy. Indeed it probably marks another transition towards, well, not Remain, precisely — but perhaps “Switzerland”.
3.
Cameron’s alleged Chinese leanings (actually, Osborne, like most of Cameron’s supposed policies) is interesting just as we see something of a US-China detente as Xi visits San Francisco.