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LAB moves to an even stronger favourite to win overall majority – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,685
edited November 2023 in General
imageLAB moves to an even stronger favourite to win overall majority – politicalbetting.com

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    Given Cameron's electoral record, that sounds right. Even after the GFC Cameron turned a clear poll lead into a hung parliament.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,028
    edited November 2023
    First. Unlike the Tories.

    Second. Unlike the Tories... ;)
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,955
    Nads reckons this is the first stage in the plan to bring Osborne back as LoTo
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    Scott_xP said:

    Nads reckons this is the first stage in the plan to bring Osborne back as LoTo

    Hurrah.
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,952
    An unelected Etonian holding one of the great offices of state, and a (near) billionaire in number 10. In the middle of a cost of living crisis.

    The optics, as they say, are not good.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,471
    edited November 2023

    Given Cameron's electoral record, that sounds right. Even after the GFC Cameron turned a clear poll lead into a hung parliament.

    He won four out of five general elections and plebiscites.

    Edit in 2010 he made the second most net gains by a LOTO since WWII.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,981
    Scott_xP said:

    Nads reckons this is the first stage in the plan to bring Osborne back as LoTo

    WTF would 18 jobs Osborne want to return to politics....
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,028
    "HS2 train maker Alstom to axe 600 jobs in Derby. Hundreds of redundancies are set to be announced at Britain's biggest train building plant in the wake of Rishi Sunak's decision to scale back #HS2."

    https://twitter.com/CharlieRose1/status/1723690282904932423
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2023
    kyf_100 said:

    An unelected Etonian holding one of the great offices of state, and a (near) billionaire in number 10. In the middle of a cost of living crisis.

    The optics, as they say, are not good.

    Sky News are prattling on about lack of diversity already. All private school men....BADDDDDDDD
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755

    "HS2 train maker Alstom to axe 600 jobs in Derby. Hundreds of redundancies are set to be announced at Britain's biggest train building plant in the wake of Rishi Sunak's decision to scale back #HS2."

    https://twitter.com/CharlieRose1/status/1723690282904932423

    Yes but they can take comfort in us spending buckets on foreign aid.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,269
    Scott_xP said:

    Nads reckons this is the first stage in the plan to bring Osborne back as LoTo

    The Tories have given up on the general election and have moved onto the post landslide election defeat infighting.
  • Options
    FPT

    One aside on this reshuffle and particularly on the Braverman/Cleverly/Cameron moves.

    Does this tell us something about the possible timing of the next election? I would have thought that having signalled such a large apparent move in tone and direction, Sunak would want the maximum amount of time possible to sell it to the public whilst not appearing to leave it to the last minute.

    So although I don't think it will make much difference to the eventual outcome, personally I am thinking this starts to solidify the chances of an autumn 2024 election, or at least drastically reduces the chances of a spring 2024 election.

    Thoughts?
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,679

    "HS2 train maker Alstom to axe 600 jobs in Derby. Hundreds of redundancies are set to be announced at Britain's biggest train building plant in the wake of Rishi Sunak's decision to scale back #HS2."

    https://twitter.com/CharlieRose1/status/1723690282904932423

    A decision about which Sunak's FS said:

    "Today’s decision on HS2 is the wrong one. It will help to fuel the views of those who argue that we can no longer think or act for the long-term as a country; that we are heading in the wrong direction.

    HS2 was about investing for the long-term, bringing the country together, ensuring a more balanced economy and delivering the Northern Powerhouse. We achieved historic, cross-party support, with extensive buy-in from city and local authority leaders across the Midlands and North of England. Today’s announcement throws away fifteen years of cross-party consensus, sustained over six administrations, and will make it much harder to build consensus for any future long-term projects.

    All across the world, we see transformative, long-term infrastructure projects completed or underway. They show countries on the rise, building for future generations, thinking big and getting things done.

    I regret this decision and in years to come I suspect many will look back at today’s announcement and wonder how this once-in-a-generation opportunity was lost."
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nads reckons this is the first stage in the plan to bring Osborne back as LoTo

    WTF would 18 jobs Osborne want to return to politics....
    because Gollum felt the ring of power was his and he wants to get it back.
  • Options
    Looks like CON aiming for the 200 to 250 damage limitation outcome.

    It's not often that the CON number of MPs begins with a 2 however, not since 1974. Since then CON has managed a number beginning with 3 8 times and er 1 3 times!
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    isamisam Posts: 40,930
    edited November 2023
    Strange headline - I laid Labour majority at 1.36 on Friday, at that price again this morning, and it’s still 1.36 now

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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,999
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    I’m sure this has been mentioned on here, but dragging Dave back will remind viewers that they’ll have had 14 years of this.

    Once the likes of @TSE have got over their euphoria, the general voting public will be unmoved. Indeed, it will ultimately reflect even worse on the party’s chances at the next election.

    The fact that it’s probably a good thing for the country will be lost on voters. F.O. moves no dials.

    (Also some very dodgy skeletons in Dave’s cupboard which aren’t going to play out well.)

    Possibly for the first time ever, I completely agree

    I don't actually. It's a significant shift to the left – and purge of the hard right loons – and I reckon it will bring some Cameroon types back into the fold (who would otherwise had voted Labour or Liberal). Maybe not huge numbers, but could be worth a few points in the polls.
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    Just been reminded that relations are still strained between Dave and Michael Gove and they are now sharing a cabinet table.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    Suella Braverman had made her position untenable. I guess Sunak needed to work out what her level of support was in the Parliamentary Party, and realised that it was not high.
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    Sky reporting Hague brokered deal between Sunak and Cameron
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    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nads reckons this is the first stage in the plan to bring Osborne back as LoTo

    WTF would 18 jobs Osborne want to return to politics....
    because Gollum felt the ring of power was his and he wants to get it back.
    He really doesn't.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,997

    FPT

    One aside on this reshuffle and particularly on the Braverman/Cleverly/Cameron moves.

    Does this tell us something about the possible timing of the next election? I would have thought that having signalled such a large apparent move in tone and direction, Sunak would want the maximum amount of time possible to sell it to the public whilst not appearing to leave it to the last minute.

    So although I don't think it will make much difference to the eventual outcome, personally I am thinking this starts to solidify the chances of an autumn 2024 election, or at least drastically reduces the chances of a spring 2024 election.

    Thoughts?

    Or Jan 25? Seriously!
  • Options

    Given Cameron's electoral record, that sounds right. Even after the GFC Cameron turned a clear poll lead into a hung parliament.

    He won four out of five general elections and plebiscites.

    Edit in 2010 he made the second most net gains by a LOTO since WWII.
    Only just and he lost ground in every campaign, almost losing Scotland until saved by Gordon Brown and Ruth Davidson, losing Brexit against the polling, turning a clear lead into a hung parliament in 2010. Cameron's campaigning record is appalling; he goes 100% negative and it doesn't work. And GE2015 only looks good because the SNP swept Labour out of Scotland.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,981

    First. Unlike the Tories.

    Second. Unlike the Tories... ;)

    You mean the Lib Dems will end up with more seats come the next election?

    I know Carol Vorderman's tactical voting campaign has the Tories worried but I doubt would be that decisive...
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,567

    Just been reminded that relations are still strained between Dave and Michael Gove and they are now sharing a cabinet table.

    It's a very long table, and isn't Mr Gove somewhere junior at the far end?

    They can sup with very long spoons.

    But which one's the Devil?
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,269

    FPT

    One aside on this reshuffle and particularly on the Braverman/Cleverly/Cameron moves.

    Does this tell us something about the possible timing of the next election? I would have thought that having signalled such a large apparent move in tone and direction, Sunak would want the maximum amount of time possible to sell it to the public whilst not appearing to leave it to the last minute.

    So although I don't think it will make much difference to the eventual outcome, personally I am thinking this starts to solidify the chances of an autumn 2024 election, or at least drastically reduces the chances of a spring 2024 election.

    Thoughts?

    That's a relatively rational interpretation, but I agree with Dan Hodges. Sunak may well have a different strategy next week. If this strategic change of direction doesn't gain any traction, I could easily see him changing tack again, and a surprise spring election might be the only play left.
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    MattW said:

    Just been reminded that relations are still strained between Dave and Michael Gove and they are now sharing a cabinet table.

    It's a very long table, and isn't Mr Gove somewhere junior at the far end?

    They can sup with very long spoons.

    But which one's the Devil?
    Gove.

    He's a party to adultery.
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    Scott_xP said:

    Nads reckons this is the first stage in the plan to bring Osborne back as LoTo

    The Tories have given up on the general election and have moved onto the post landslide election defeat infighting.
    If the Tories have moved onto post-election infighting already perhaps it would make sense to have the election now.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,981

    Looks like CON aiming for the 200 to 250 damage limitation outcome.

    It's not often that the CON number of MPs begins with a 2 however, not since 1974. Since then CON has managed a number beginning with 3 8 times and er 1 3 times!

    The worry for the tories is not that their number of seats starts with a 1 it's that it starts with a 9, 8 or 7...
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2023

    Just been reminded that relations are still strained between Dave and Michael Gove and they are now sharing a cabinet table.

    Gove has an incredible ability to fall out with lots of people but still make it work.

    One thing is for certain, all that talk about Big Dom is pulling the strings behind the scenes has to have been total BS. No way Cameron, who hates Big Dom with a passion, would go anywhere a return to frontline politics if he thought Big Dom was in his bat cave strategizing how to get Sunak to nuke the whole civil service and replace it with Elon Musk's LLM.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755

    Just been reminded that relations are still strained between Dave and Michael Gove and they are now sharing a cabinet table.

    sack Gove
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,679

    FPT

    One aside on this reshuffle and particularly on the Braverman/Cleverly/Cameron moves.

    Does this tell us something about the possible timing of the next election? I would have thought that having signalled such a large apparent move in tone and direction, Sunak would want the maximum amount of time possible to sell it to the public whilst not appearing to leave it to the last minute.

    So although I don't think it will make much difference to the eventual outcome, personally I am thinking this starts to solidify the chances of an autumn 2024 election, or at least drastically reduces the chances of a spring 2024 election.

    Thoughts?

    Not so sure it makes autumn 2024 any more likely tbh, I think it must have been a 90% chance anyway. If anything, it might be better to move sooner while the novelty hasn't worn off. Good job there's not time for a GE before this Christmas.

    Question I have is: will Cameron now be a big part of the campaign team in the next GE?
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,997

    Just been reminded that relations are still strained between Dave and Michael Gove and they are now sharing a cabinet table.

    So far!
    You are assuming (see my earlier post) that the reshuffle has stopped.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,283

    FPT

    One aside on this reshuffle and particularly on the Braverman/Cleverly/Cameron moves.

    Does this tell us something about the possible timing of the next election? I would have thought that having signalled such a large apparent move in tone and direction, Sunak would want the maximum amount of time possible to sell it to the public whilst not appearing to leave it to the last minute.

    So although I don't think it will make much difference to the eventual outcome, personally I am thinking this starts to solidify the chances of an autumn 2024 election, or at least drastically reduces the chances of a spring 2024 election.

    Thoughts?

    Cammo's not going to be pushing for an early GE, for sure....
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,999
    isam said:

    Strange headline - I laid Labour majority at 1.36 on Friday, at that price again this morning, and it’s still 1.36 now

    That and the fact I'd expect the markets are overreacting. I agree with you actually on this one and think the reshuffle reduces Labour's chances of an overall majority somewhat.
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    Just been reminded that relations are still strained between Dave and Michael Gove and they are now sharing a cabinet table.

    So far!
    You are assuming (see my earlier post) that the reshuffle has stopped.
    Sunak has just returned to no 10 so no doubt the reshuffle will continue throughout this afternoon
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    A good move for the Tories that increases the number of MPs they will win next election.

    Cameron is an election winner, will not say crazy stuff like Braverman and will bring back some moderate tory votes from lib dems.
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    Superhero film The Marvels made just $47m (£38m) in its first weekend, in the US, making it the Marvel Cinematic Universe's lowest opening. In contrast, Avengers: Endgame made box office history in 2019 by taking a record-breaking $1.2bn (£980m) in global ticket sales in its opening run.

    Ouch....
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,679
    Has Cameron been helicoptered in? Just asking.
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    Given Cameron's electoral record, that sounds right. Even after the GFC Cameron turned a clear poll lead into a hung parliament.

    He won four out of five general elections and plebiscites.

    Edit in 2010 he made the second most net gains by a LOTO since WWII.
    Only just and he lost ground in every campaign, almost losing Scotland until saved by Gordon Brown and Ruth Davidson, losing Brexit against the polling, turning a clear lead into a hung parliament in 2010. Cameron's campaigning record is appalling; he goes 100% negative and it doesn't work. And GE2015 only looks good because the SNP swept Labour out of Scotland.
    I think he gained ground in 2015? Though the polls were that far out it's hard to say.

    But yes, Cameron was generally a much more effective campaigner in the period before the campaign proper started than during it - his strategic campaigning was generally on the mark; his tactical campaigning much less so.
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,259
    edited November 2023

    Just been reminded that relations are still strained between Dave and Michael Gove and they are now sharing a cabinet table.

    It's hardly unusual to have particular people around the cabinet table who hate other individuals at the table. Indeed, it'd be incredibly unusual for that not to be the case.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,679
    Have we heard from Farage yet?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,283
    edited November 2023
    So long as it doesn't give the lying clown any ideas....

    Indeed knowing the way these Eton types think, the whole thing is probably the continuing game of oneupmanship between the two of them, to which all of us and our country are entirely incidental
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,269

    Scott_xP said:

    Nads reckons this is the first stage in the plan to bring Osborne back as LoTo

    The Tories have given up on the general election and have moved onto the post landslide election defeat infighting.
    If the Tories have moved onto post-election infighting already perhaps it would make sense to have the election now.
    Fag end governments are often devoid of good sense. If we reduced the maximum term of a Parliament to four years we wouldn't have long to wait to put this one out of its misery.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2023

    Have we heard from Farage yet?

    He is in Australia preparing himself to be voted by the public to eat Kangaroo bollocks live on ITV every night......
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,567

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    How can PB not know that red socks are posh?!

    *stares across pub in amazement*

    Hmmm. Not sure they are posh anymore. Tends to be people who want people to think they are posh and a little bit daring.

    A lot of wearers are also influenced by seeing certain types wearing them in the 80s when they were growing up worn with a pair of Penny loafers and a blue and white striped shirt - a preppy/yuppie look.

    If you are posh you don’t give a damn what colour socks you are wearing and therefore don’t deliberately choose red socks to signal who you are. And socks are more likely to have a hole in than be red.

    The truely posh wear their dad's darned socks. The Princess Royal is often seen cutting about in a pair of Phil's Pantherellas.
    The retro trend I'm noticing is 1950s school style clickety-click light switches. Screwfix have their model in about 15 finishes in a triple gang in an obtangular format.

    It's as if they think we all want to live in Miss Marples' retirement flat in Dorking, or a polio institution.

    All I want is just *one* like that with real rocker switches - but nothing anywhere.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,541
    It seems to me that today slightly increases the chance of NOM, whatever the betting says. Today's events try to appeal to ordinary centrists who want competent government. The right wing has already been lost to the fringe and a few million centrists have stopped saying they would vote Tory in current polling. It is these votes Sunak needs back to stop a landslide. He also needs this in order to save the party, assuming it loses which it will, from being a loony fringe in the future.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,567

    Have we heard from Farage yet?

    He is in Australia preparing himself to be voted by the public to eat Kangaroo bollocks live on ITV every night......
    Hope he's tied down long-term.

    Or hunted with a helicopter.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,233
    94% of people won’t give a toss about the Cameron appointment

    4% will be annoyed; 2% pleased
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    I think Cameron’s election winning can be overplayed but nor should it be dismissed out of hand. In 2010 he did gain a significant number of seats and turn a Labour majority of 60-odd into a parliament where the Tories were just shy of a majority. He won in 2015. Yes the Scottish referendum was closer than predicted but he was still on the winning side. Brexit was his great failure.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,283

    Scott_xP said:

    Nads reckons this is the first stage in the plan to bring Osborne back as LoTo

    The Tories have given up on the general election and have moved onto the post landslide election defeat infighting.
    If the Tories have moved onto post-election infighting already perhaps it would make sense to have the election now.
    Fag end governments are often devoid of good sense. If we reduced the maximum term of a Parliament to four years we wouldn't have long to wait to put this one out of its misery.
    We'd just get less fag and the same end
  • Options

    Have we heard from Farage yet?

    He is in Australia preparing himself to be voted by the public to eat Kangaroo bollocks live on ITV every night......
    Farage is said to be getting £1.5 million which is around four Matt Hancocks.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2023

    Have we heard from Farage yet?

    He is in Australia preparing himself to be voted by the public to eat Kangaroo bollocks live on ITV every night......
    Farage is said to be getting £1.5 million which is around four Matt Hancocks.
    Nice little earner....although given how expensive fags and booze are these days, that will only just about cover a year's supply.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,283

    Have we heard from Farage yet?

    He is in Australia preparing himself to be voted by the public to eat Kangaroo bollocks live on ITV every night......
    Farage is said to be getting £1.5 million which is around four Matt Hancocks.
    He just needs a UK bank account to put it in...
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,679

    Have we heard from Farage yet?

    He is in Australia preparing himself to be voted by the public to eat Kangaroo bollocks live on ITV every night......
    Haha, what a clown.
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    Leon said:

    94% of people won’t give a toss about the Cameron appointment

    4% will be annoyed; 2% pleased

    Ah but what are the percentages among Tory MPs (including the ones who wanted to be Foreign Secretary themselves)?
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    SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 599
    MattW said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    How can PB not know that red socks are posh?!

    *stares across pub in amazement*

    Hmmm. Not sure they are posh anymore. Tends to be people who want people to think they are posh and a little bit daring.

    A lot of wearers are also influenced by seeing certain types wearing them in the 80s when they were growing up worn with a pair of Penny loafers and a blue and white striped shirt - a preppy/yuppie look.

    If you are posh you don’t give a damn what colour socks you are wearing and therefore don’t deliberately choose red socks to signal who you are. And socks are more likely to have a hole in than be red.

    The truely posh wear their dad's darned socks. The Princess Royal is often seen cutting about in a pair of Phil's Pantherellas.
    The retro trend I'm noticing is 1950s school style clickety-click light switches. Screwfix have their model in about 15 finishes in a triple gang in an obtangular format.

    It's as if they think we all want to live in Miss Marples' retirement flat in Dorking, or a polio institution.

    All I want is just *one* like that with real rocker switches - but nothing anywhere.
    My husband, as a planning consultant, sometimes had to deal with country estates. He soon learnt that the immaculately dressed one was the estate manager and the scruff was the owner.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Scott_xP said:

    Nads reckons this is the first stage in the plan to bring Osborne back as LoTo

    The Tories have given up on the general election and have moved onto the post landslide election defeat infighting.
    If the Tories have moved onto post-election infighting already perhaps it would make sense to have the election now.
    Give over. You've got 11 months more before that happens.

    Enjoy the ride.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,140
    I'll say one thing positive about Sunak's decision to appoint Cameron. It didn't leak in advance. His inner circle must be quite tight.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,999
    Sean_F said:

    Suella Braverman had made her position untenable. I guess Sunak needed to work out what her level of support was in the Parliamentary Party, and realised that it was not high.

    Yes, she will be yet another nutter loon who has had a brief spell in the sun and will now rapidly disappear into near obscurity.
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    Have we heard from Farage yet?

    He is in Australia preparing himself to be voted by the public to eat Kangaroo bollocks live on ITV every night......
    Haha, what a clown.
    If DecrepiterJohnL is right and he is getting £1.5m, I would suggest the joke is on ITV.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,679
    Breaking: Margaret Thatcher's ghost appointed as Conservative Party Chairman.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2023
    The FT data bod had a piece the other week, based on a recent research paper, showing that the number of UK graduate jobs haven't expanded at the rate of increase in UK graduates. But in the US they have.

    Its more UK productivity / growth in businesses have been shit since 2008 downturn.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,233

    Given Cameron's electoral record, that sounds right. Even after the GFC Cameron turned a clear poll lead into a hung parliament.

    He won four out of five general elections and plebiscites.

    Edit in 2010 he made the second most net gains by a LOTO since WWII.
    Only just and he lost ground in every campaign, almost losing Scotland until saved by Gordon Brown and Ruth Davidson, losing Brexit against the polling, turning a clear lead into a hung parliament in 2010. Cameron's campaigning record is appalling; he goes 100% negative and it doesn't work. And GE2015 only looks good because the SNP swept Labour out of Scotland.
    I think he gained ground in 2015? Though the polls were that far out it's hard to say.

    But yes, Cameron was generally a much more effective campaigner in the period before the campaign proper started than during it - his strategic campaigning was generally on the mark; his tactical campaigning much less so.
    This is absurd! He lost a Brexit referendum he didn’t have to call, and which should have been the easiest win

    By his own terms, he was the most calamitous Prime Minister since Chamberlain. That is not “strategically on the mark”

    It’s like saying Hitler was a pretty good German leader because of his pro-motorist agenda
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,679

    Have we heard from Farage yet?

    He is in Australia preparing himself to be voted by the public to eat Kangaroo bollocks live on ITV every night......
    Haha, what a clown.
    If DecrepiterJohnL is right and he is getting £1.5m, I would suggest the joke is on ITV.
    Well, if you value money that much. Personally, I'd need to be on my uppers to take a deal like that. And Farage is hardly on his uppers.

    I find the pursuit of money for money's sake bizarre.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,140

    I think Cameron’s election winning can be overplayed but nor should it be dismissed out of hand. In 2010 he did gain a significant number of seats and turn a Labour majority of 60-odd into a parliament where the Tories were just shy of a majority. He won in 2015. Yes the Scottish referendum was closer than predicted but he was still on the winning side. Brexit was his great failure.

    I think that the idea that a person is "election winning" come what may is overdone. Was John Major "election winning"? A lot of articles in the Tory press in 1996-97 clung to the idea he was. Then he wasn't. BoJo was election winning, but removed before he could lose one, ditto Thatcher.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755

    The FT data bod had a piece the other week showing that UK graduate jobs haven't expanded at the rate of UK graduates. But in the US they have.
    Theres a whole generation getting itself in debt it will struggle to repay.
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    AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    Leon said:

    94% of people won’t give a toss about the Cameron appointment

    4% will be annoyed; 2% pleased

    TSE is in the 0.00001% who thinks they have died and gone to heaven.
  • Options
    Disagreed is putting it mildly given that he resigned from the party and stood against the Tories in 2015 as the UKIP candidate!



    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1724042555522744741
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,233

    The FT data bod had a piece the other week showing that UK graduate jobs haven't expanded at the rate of UK graduates. But in the US they have.
    Theres a whole generation getting itself in debt it will struggle to repay.
    Especially when they discover they haven’t got jobs thanks to AI
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    It is still early days but it would be good if this marked the start of the marginalisation of the populist Tory right. They have not produced good governance, or stability, or prosperity, or social cohesion. They have left us more divided, more angry, more broken, less well governed. They had their chance.

    It is too early to prophesy their demise. In particular, I fear what happens after the GE. But if Sunak does clear house then perhaps it’s the best thing he can do with the time remaining to him.

    I’d withdraw the whip from the most egregiously dog-whistle-y types, to be frank. Suella can’t be leader if she’s not in the party.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2023

    The FT data bod had a piece the other week showing that UK graduate jobs haven't expanded at the rate of UK graduates. But in the US they have.
    Theres a whole generation getting itself in debt it will struggle to repay.
    It isn't actually as big a problem for them on a personal level*, as its a ticking time bomb for us, because large chunks of the debt will never be repaid.

    * it is they are paying 9% every tax on money over £20 odd k, which isn't great for saving, investing etc.
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    NEW: Hear there is bit of a row brewing...

    Sunak has sacked Rachel Maclean as Minister of State at Levelling Up but is getting some major blowback from Cabinet level supporters.


    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1724040289210315236
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    ajbajb Posts: 122
    FPT:
    Jonathan said:

    Be afraid. Be very afraid.

    This move sets a precedent for the return of Truss.

    I guess you're joking! Sunak had an unusual number of former prime ministers to choose from, and even then he went back to one that had moved to the Lords. Very few would go back to the previous PM from whom they won the seat. I can only think of Neville Chamberlain serving under Churchill.
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    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    33m
    Another weird thing from Sunak's perceptive. Cameron was PM for six years, and a fixture in the public consciousness for the best part of a decade. Most people had never seen Rishi till Covid. I think subconsciously people will see Cameron talking and think "he's Prime Minister".
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,793
    edited November 2023

    Superhero film The Marvels made just $47m (£38m) in its first weekend, in the US, making it the Marvel Cinematic Universe's lowest opening. In contrast, Avengers: Endgame made box office history in 2019 by taking a record-breaking $1.2bn (£980m) in global ticket sales in its opening run.

    Ouch....

    Whilst I am well aware of The Marvels' AAARGH! numbers, you are not comparing like-to-like

    Domestic (US&Canada) gross for first weekend
    • The Marvels: $47,000,000
    • Avengers:Endgame: $357,115,007
    At a guess, given the international numbers and a slightly better decay curve than you'd expect, it'll probably make its net budget back so they'll be able to claim a nominal success. But that ignores the cost of promotion etc so it'll probably end up losing what, 100-200million? In pre-Covid times they'd have made up the loss with another film, but still-low post-Covid attendance and superhero fatigue in general and MCU fatigue in particular makes it bad news for Marvel. Everything has been postponed to 2015 (except for Deadpool 3) while they work out what, if anything, they can do to fix this.

    https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Avengers-Endgame-(2019)#tab=box-office
    https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Marvels-The-(2023)#tab=box-office
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,679

    Leon said:

    94% of people won’t give a toss about the Cameron appointment

    4% will be annoyed; 2% pleased

    Ah but what are the percentages among Tory MPs (including the ones who wanted to be Foreign Secretary themselves)?
    Well at least one One Nation Tory is pleased (possibly with a back-handed swipe at Sunak):

    Great to have you back @David_Cameron we need as many steady hands on deck as possible in support of the work and vision of @RishiSunak

    https://x.com/Simon4NDorset/status/1724018871781212405?s=20
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Sean_F said:

    Suella Braverman had made her position untenable. I guess Sunak needed to work out what her level of support was in the Parliamentary Party, and realised that it was not high.

    Yes, she will be yet another nutter loon who has had a brief spell in the sun ....
    "I'm melting....melting...."

    Detroying her beautiful wickedness.

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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755

    The FT data bod had a piece the other week showing that UK graduate jobs haven't expanded at the rate of UK graduates. But in the US they have.
    Theres a whole generation getting itself in debt it will struggle to repay.
    It isn't actually a problem for them...its a ticking time bomb for us.
    Not so sure. We'll be gone when the bills come in.

    Someone who has paid off their loans will be taxed again when the 30 years or so for students who cant are up and the future taxpayer has to cough up for the loan write offs.

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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,001

    Breaking: Margaret Thatcher's ghost appointed as Conservative Party Chairman.

    TBF she's probably been spinning so fast in her grave she's tunnelled her way out.
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    DougSeal said:

    I'll say one thing positive about Sunak's decision to appoint Cameron. It didn't leak in advance. His inner circle must be quite tight.

    ...naughty....
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited November 2023
    Deleted
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626

    FPT

    One aside on this reshuffle and particularly on the Braverman/Cleverly/Cameron moves.

    Does this tell us something about the possible timing of the next election? I would have thought that having signalled such a large apparent move in tone and direction, Sunak would want the maximum amount of time possible to sell it to the public whilst not appearing to leave it to the last minute.

    So although I don't think it will make much difference to the eventual outcome, personally I am thinking this starts to solidify the chances of an autumn 2024 election, or at least drastically reduces the chances of a spring 2024 election.

    Thoughts?

    That's a relatively rational interpretation, but I agree with Dan Hodges. Sunak may well have a different strategy next week. If this strategic change of direction doesn't gain any traction, I could easily see him changing tack again, and a surprise spring election might be the only play left.
    My immediate thought (FWIW) was that it made a spring election more likely.

    Soon enough for them still to be pushing the (barely credible, but still) change message. Leave it later than that and they'll be expected to actually do something.
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,182

    "HS2 train maker Alstom to axe 600 jobs in Derby. Hundreds of redundancies are set to be announced at Britain's biggest train building plant in the wake of Rishi Sunak's decision to scale back #HS2."

    https://twitter.com/CharlieRose1/status/1723690282904932423

    I used to work at Litchurch Lane. Great place. Great People.

    Other rolling stock contracts are available.
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    148grss148grss Posts: 3,679

    kyf_100 said:

    An unelected Etonian holding one of the great offices of state, and a (near) billionaire in number 10. In the middle of a cost of living crisis.

    The optics, as they say, are not good.

    Sky News are prattling on about lack of diversity already. All private school men....BADDDDDDDD
    I was talking to someone who works in the civil service about this earlier last week: it is bad in the sense it narrows the horizon of discussion. Apparently during the talks about the nature of lockdown, there was no discussion on how to mitigate any potential rise in domestic abuse due to the policy and it took a woman in Cabinet to bring it up before anyone even thought to mention it.
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    Is that it for the cabinet changes?

    Pity if so. It’d be lovely to see the back of some more.
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,542
    DougSeal said:

    I'll say one thing positive about Sunak's decision to appoint Cameron. It didn't leak in advance. His inner circle must be quite tight.

    That last sentence conjures up a pretty grotesque image.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,981
    Taz said:

    "HS2 train maker Alstom to axe 600 jobs in Derby. Hundreds of redundancies are set to be announced at Britain's biggest train building plant in the wake of Rishi Sunak's decision to scale back #HS2."

    https://twitter.com/CharlieRose1/status/1723690282904932423

    I used to work at Litchurch Lane. Great place. Great People.

    Other rolling stock contracts are available.
    But not for long.

    Similar announcements from Hitachi and other manufacturers will be appearing in short order...
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Leon said:

    94% of people won’t give a toss about the Cameron appointment

    4% will be annoyed; 2% pleased

    It makes them look less rabid.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,679
    Leon said:

    The FT data bod had a piece the other week showing that UK graduate jobs haven't expanded at the rate of UK graduates. But in the US they have.
    Theres a whole generation getting itself in debt it will struggle to repay.
    Especially when they discover they haven’t got jobs thanks to AI
    The worst of it is AI is only really a threat to middle to top-end jobs. There'll still be plenty of demand for care attendants, cleaners, delivery drivers. Well-paid professional jobs, not so much.

    It's going to be a big challenge.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2023
    viewcode said:

    Superhero film The Marvels made just $47m (£38m) in its first weekend, in the US, making it the Marvel Cinematic Universe's lowest opening. In contrast, Avengers: Endgame made box office history in 2019 by taking a record-breaking $1.2bn (£980m) in global ticket sales in its opening run.

    Ouch....

    Whilst I am well aware of The Marvels' AAARGH! numbers, you are not comparing like-to-like

    Domestic (US&Canada) gross for first weekend
    • The Marvels: $47,000,000
    • Avengers:Endgame: $357,115,007
    At a guess, given the international numbers and a slightly better decay curve than you'd expect, it'll probably make its net budget back so they'll be able to claim a nominal success. But that ignores the cost of promotion etc so it'll probably end up losing what, 100-200million? In pre-Covid times they'd have made up the loss with another film, but still-low post-Covid attendance and superhero fatigue in general and MCU fatigue in particular makes it bad news for Marvel. Everything has been postponed to 2015 (except for Deadpool 3) while they work out what, if anything, they can do to fix this.

    https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Avengers-Endgame-(2019)#tab=box-office
    https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Marvels-The-(2023)#tab=box-office
    That was a direct quote from BBC...but I believe drop off is very fast after opening weekend for films that flop. It goes to zero fast.

    To cover cost of promotion, distribution, etc etc etc, I believe rough rule of thumb is they spend cost of movie again on advertising / promotion etc, and with all revenue deals, you basically need 3-4x the headline cost of production to get your money back on these mega blockbusters.
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    Superhero film The Marvels made just $47m (£38m) in its first weekend, in the US, making it the Marvel Cinematic Universe's lowest opening. In contrast, Avengers: Endgame made box office history in 2019 by taking a record-breaking $1.2bn (£980m) in global ticket sales in its opening run.

    Ouch....

    I enjoyed The Marvels, my friend who doesn't have Disney+ so hasn't seen Ms Marvel was nonplussed for large parts of the film.
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    Scott_xP said:

    Nads reckons this is the first stage in the plan to bring Osborne back as LoTo

    The Tories have given up on the general election and have moved onto the post landslide election defeat infighting.
    If the Tories have moved onto post-election infighting already perhaps it would make sense to have the election now.
    Give over. You've got 11 months more before that happens.

    Enjoy the ride.
    The end of the ride should be fun, I reckon the longer the ride goes on the more spectacular will be its climax.
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    148grss148grss Posts: 3,679
    Leon said:

    The FT data bod had a piece the other week showing that UK graduate jobs haven't expanded at the rate of UK graduates. But in the US they have.
    Theres a whole generation getting itself in debt it will struggle to repay.
    Especially when they discover they haven’t got jobs thanks to AI
    People will have worse jobs double checking the AI and correcting the mess it makes... but still jobs
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    ajb said:

    FPT:

    Jonathan said:

    Be afraid. Be very afraid.

    This move sets a precedent for the return of Truss.

    I guess you're joking! Sunak had an unusual number of former prime ministers to choose from, and even then he went back to one that had moved to the Lords. Very few would go back to the previous PM from whom they won the seat. I can only think of Neville Chamberlain serving under Churchill.
    Douglas-Home served under Heath, and Heath was prepared to serve under Thatcher, though she didn't accept the offer.

    There are plenty of pre-WW2 examples too. In the first half of the 20th century, MacDonald served in Baldwin's third term, while Baldwin himself served in MacDonald's second (though that's a special case given the coalition nature and that Baldwin's Tories contained an overwhelming majority of the MPs). Lloyd George returned to a united Liberal Party under Asquith's leadership in 1923, which obviously didn't form a government but came much closer to doing so than is now remembered, while Balfour served in several subsequent governments.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2023

    Have we heard from Farage yet?

    He is in Australia preparing himself to be voted by the public to eat Kangaroo bollocks live on ITV every night......
    Haha, what a clown.
    If DecrepiterJohnL is right and he is getting £1.5m, I would suggest the joke is on ITV.
    Well, if you value money that much. Personally, I'd need to be on my uppers to take a deal like that. And Farage is hardly on his uppers.

    I find the pursuit of money for money's sake bizarre.
    I thought part of the claim for closing his Coutts account was a) he didn't have anywhere near as much money as required and b) it had gone down recently.

    I always wonder how much he is on at GB News.

    I don't disagree though that there is something very sad about the Galloways, Hancocks, Farages, etc of this world going on these shows. Hancock midlife crisis is particularly vomit inducing. Its one thing getting caught having an affair with a university friend, you lose your job, disappear off the public stage and that the end of that...but instead he is on all these reality shows, doing cringe TikToks etc.
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,182
    Leon said:

    The FT data bod had a piece the other week showing that UK graduate jobs haven't expanded at the rate of UK graduates. But in the US they have.
    Theres a whole generation getting itself in debt it will struggle to repay.
    Especially when they discover they haven’t got jobs thanks to AI
    Indeed. A generation of people with student loans to pay back, a fair chunk of them being removed due to AI advances.

    Still, it happened to blue collar manufacturing workers with the advent of autmation and mechanisation in industry and is still happening to do.

    They will get over it and find something productive to do.
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,542
    edited November 2023
    Having dispensed with Suella, I'm curious as to whether Sunak has any plans for the Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party, one Lee Anderson.
This discussion has been closed.