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Just imagine if Boris Johnson was still PM – politicalbetting.com

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  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989
    edited November 2023
    TimS said:

    slade said:

    A mixed bag of local by-elections tomorrow. There is one for Mayor of Hackney - should be a safe Lab hold but watch out for the Green vote. Lab also have a defence in Lewisham. We have a double defence in Powys for independents elected as Lib Dems. There is also a Ind defence in South Holland and Con defences in Lincolnshire and South Kesteven.

    The Lewisham defence is Deptford ward. 3 councillors elected in May last year, all Labour. But the greens are quite a strong second. Pretty much a one and a half horse race but wouldn’t rule out a green gain.

    Lewisham council is one of those examples of the madness of FPTP. 50 councillors out of 50 are from one party. That’s not representative or healthy.
    There's a very strong argument for introducing some form of PR for local elections.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,727
    edited November 2023
    Carnyx said:

    viewcode said:

    As @leon might argue, life is to be experienced in all its richness and diversity.

    In that spirit, and because Mrs Burgessian is having a clear-out, I've just for the very first time in my life put some items on ebay for sale.

    After just a few minutes already some action! Christ, this is exciting!

    (£5 bid for an Airfix 1:32 scale Triumph Herald, and an offer below starting bid price for a 1:72 scale Britten Norman Islander).

    This is how to while away winter afternoons for sure.

    Handley Page Victor? Cool!
    Was there ever a more striking and glamorous-looking aircraft? That crescent-shaped wing and the fluted tail. Extraordinary.

    The Vulcan gets all the kudos but for my money, the grace of the Victor outclasses it.

    Of the smaller planes there was the Hawker Hunter.

    There's a very good book on the post-war British aviation industry and the depressingly large number of opportunities that were squandered. "Empire of the Clouds" by James Hamilton-Paterson.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Empire-Clouds-Golden-Britains-Aircraft/dp/0571341489
    I've got that book, and it is excwllent.

    I have to disagree on the Victor though: it's fugly. The frontal view is awful IMV, with those windows between the massive intakes. The Valiant looked better, albeit a less adventurous and successful design. And of course, the Vulcan beats them all.
    Tbf the Vulcan was impressive at air shows. The way it could just roll forward what seemed just a few yards and then, whoosh, up it went. Them were the days. (You had to cover your ears for the F-104s though).
    I had a peanut butter sandwich under a parked Avro Vulcan once. It was raining.

    The Victor looked really evil. The Vulcan looked like science fiction, the Valiant just looked like a plane, but the Victor looked like a mad surgeon with a scalpel.
    Especially, in the case of the Victor, with the fuel tanks and "Kuechemann carrots" fixed directly to the wing (the latter to ease out the air flow but used for carrying Window* dispensers). Before they were cluttered up with air to air refuelling gear.

    https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/630222541575361096/

    *Possibly called Chaff by Americanisers.

    As for the Vulcan, I've been in the Museum of Flight one (the Scottish national museum, near Edinburgh, not the Seattle one). Not as compact as a fighter, but a surprisingly snug pilot's place with a fighter joystick. Not the airliner style wheel.
    The last flying Vulcan was of course based here in the Flatlands (well, Finningley is actually on a sandy ridge, but anyway).

    Father in law was keen so we tended to go there if it was flying at a weekend and it usually did a mini-display on landing, with plenty of noise. Though it was surprisingly stealthy if it came in for a low pass first.

    It was on display when not flying so I have had a look in the cockpit too. Not very big for 5 people.

    Of course, controversially, there were only 2 ejector seats.

    Managed to witness the last flight - there was no plan released in advance because they didn't want lots of traffic turning up but we got about 20 minutes warning which was just about enough.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,363
    stodge said:

    TimS said:

    slade said:

    A mixed bag of local by-elections tomorrow. There is one for Mayor of Hackney - should be a safe Lab hold but watch out for the Green vote. Lab also have a defence in Lewisham. We have a double defence in Powys for independents elected as Lib Dems. There is also a Ind defence in South Holland and Con defences in Lincolnshire and South Kesteven.

    The Lewisham defence is Deptford ward. 3 councillors elected in May last year, all Labour. But the greens are quite a strong second. Pretty much a one and a half horse race but wouldn’t rule out a green gain.

    Lewisham council is one of those examples of the madness of FPTP. 50 councillors out of 50 are from one party. That’s not representative or healthy.
    There's a very strong argument for introducing some form of PR for local elections.
    You mean, do like what they have in Wales and Scotland? Revolutionary.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    stodge said:

    isam said:

    If Johnson were still PM though some of the people queuing up to tell the country the truth about what a blustering, pig-ignorant, malignant sack of pus and lies the man is would still be surgically inserting themselves as far up his arse as they possibly could, as they did before. Nothing loosens the lips quite like seeing the subject of your criticism fall from power. It is not Johnson but his enablers who deserve the full measure of our scorn.

    "it is not Johnson but his enablers who deserve the full measure of our scorn"

    Is that the people who tried to stop the referendum result being implemented? They're the only reason he ever became PM
    No, he became leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister because, in the summer of 2019, polling showed he was the only one of the Conservative leadership contenders capable of winning an election and stopping votes going to Farage's Brexit Party.

    There was some ComRes polling in June 2019 which showed that and from then on his ascent to No.10 was inevitable. Once in office, and you're quite right, the more the opposition tried to frustrate the implementation of Brexit, the higher the Conservative poll rating went.
    Theresa May agreed a deal with the EU that parliament, the majority of whom were Remain inclined, refused to votre through; it should have been a walkover- we had voted to Leave, the PM had cut a deal, thats it - but they thought they had a chance at another referendum, so risked unleashing their worst nightmare (Boris and No Deal) rather than do the decent thing
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    ydoethur said:

    On thread. I would rather not imagine him as PM.

    I don't have to imagine, I can remember.

    I wish I could do a Nicola Sturgeon on my memories of him as PM.
    aka 'doing an Elaine Cottam' after today's episode of "The Post Office Scandal".
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,363

    Carnyx said:

    viewcode said:

    As @leon might argue, life is to be experienced in all its richness and diversity.

    In that spirit, and because Mrs Burgessian is having a clear-out, I've just for the very first time in my life put some items on ebay for sale.

    After just a few minutes already some action! Christ, this is exciting!

    (£5 bid for an Airfix 1:32 scale Triumph Herald, and an offer below starting bid price for a 1:72 scale Britten Norman Islander).

    This is how to while away winter afternoons for sure.

    Handley Page Victor? Cool!
    Was there ever a more striking and glamorous-looking aircraft? That crescent-shaped wing and the fluted tail. Extraordinary.

    The Vulcan gets all the kudos but for my money, the grace of the Victor outclasses it.

    Of the smaller planes there was the Hawker Hunter.

    There's a very good book on the post-war British aviation industry and the depressingly large number of opportunities that were squandered. "Empire of the Clouds" by James Hamilton-Paterson.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Empire-Clouds-Golden-Britains-Aircraft/dp/0571341489
    I've got that book, and it is excwllent.

    I have to disagree on the Victor though: it's fugly. The frontal view is awful IMV, with those windows between the massive intakes. The Valiant looked better, albeit a less adventurous and successful design. And of course, the Vulcan beats them all.
    Tbf the Vulcan was impressive at air shows. The way it could just roll forward what seemed just a few yards and then, whoosh, up it went. Them were the days. (You had to cover your ears for the F-104s though).
    I had a peanut butter sandwich under a parked Avro Vulcan once. It was raining.

    The Victor looked really evil. The Vulcan looked like science fiction, the Valiant just looked like a plane, but the Victor looked like a mad surgeon with a scalpel.
    Especially, in the case of the Victor, with the fuel tanks and "Kuechemann carrots" fixed directly to the wing (the latter to ease out the air flow but used for carrying Window* dispensers). Before they were cluttered up with air to air refuelling gear.

    https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/630222541575361096/

    *Possibly called Chaff by Americanisers.

    As for the Vulcan, I've been in the Museum of Flight one (the Scottish national museum, near Edinburgh, not the Seattle one). Not as compact as a fighter, but a surprisingly snug pilot's place with a fighter joystick. Not the airliner style wheel.
    The last flying Vulcan was of course based here in the Flatlands (well, Finningley is actually on a sandy ridge, but anyway).

    Father in law was keen so we tended to go there if it was flying at a weekend and it usually did a mini-display on landing, with plenty of noise. Though it was surprisingly stealthy if it came in for a low pass first.

    It was on display when not flying so I have had a look in the cockpit too. Not very big for 5 people.

    Of course, controversially, there were only 2 ejector seats.

    Managed to witness the last flight - there was no plan released in advance because they didn't want lots of traffic turning up but we got about 20 minutes warning which was enough.
    The other favourite plane of that era was the VC.10 - for sheer elegance. I must have seen one of the last flights, in overall hemp and grey, by the accident of a walk along the Thames under the Brize Norton flight path. Never again.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,866
    edited November 2023
    edit
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    Sean_F said:

    CQ Roll Call - House members from NC, NY dominate most vulnerable list
    A year from the 2024 election, both parties have turf to defend

    https://rollcall.com/2023/11/07/house-members-from-nc-ny-dominate-most-vulnerable-list/

    SSI - Check out the nifty pic of Lauren Boebert with (yet another) recent hot date!

    Has George Santos turned heterosexual?
    He's disconnected from reality on so many things, who can be sure of any fact or claim about him?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,403
    edited November 2023
    Andy_JS said:
    Hmm. The Economist article is a summary of other sources, which is annoying, and I think bringing in Wlezien/Jennings[1] didn't help. However I was pleased to see Neil acknowledge that "the economy" is not a good indicator, household income/inflation is... :)

    [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0315-6
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    @Richard_Tyndall stated twice on the previous thread that I state that any criticism of Israel is anti-Semitic.This is simply incorrect and I am fed up with being misrepresented in this way. I have made numerous criticisms of the Israeli government - both in relation to the Gaza operation and its behaviour in the West Bank.

    In the specific comment of mine he responded to I said this: "As I have said before, far too many of the criticisms of Israel are bad faith ones made by people who do not wish it to defend itself or to exist either."

    "Far too many" is not the same as "all". I have repeatedly made a distinction between good faith criticisms of Israel and ones made in bad faith.

    Disagreement on this topic is one thing. There are few, if any, answers to this dreadful issue, let alone any easy ones. But being misrepresented by posters is unacceptable.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,952
    O/T

    Train nerd Geoff Marshall explains how to get 100% on the London Tube Memory Game.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfylrfdFQUc
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    isam said:

    stodge said:

    isam said:

    If Johnson were still PM though some of the people queuing up to tell the country the truth about what a blustering, pig-ignorant, malignant sack of pus and lies the man is would still be surgically inserting themselves as far up his arse as they possibly could, as they did before. Nothing loosens the lips quite like seeing the subject of your criticism fall from power. It is not Johnson but his enablers who deserve the full measure of our scorn.

    "it is not Johnson but his enablers who deserve the full measure of our scorn"

    Is that the people who tried to stop the referendum result being implemented? They're the only reason he ever became PM
    No, he became leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister because, in the summer of 2019, polling showed he was the only one of the Conservative leadership contenders capable of winning an election and stopping votes going to Farage's Brexit Party.

    There was some ComRes polling in June 2019 which showed that and from then on his ascent to No.10 was inevitable. Once in office, and you're quite right, the more the opposition tried to frustrate the implementation of Brexit, the higher the Conservative poll rating went.
    Theresa May agreed a deal with the EU that parliament, the majority of whom were Remain inclined, refused to votre through; it should have been a walkover- we had voted to Leave, the PM had cut a deal, thats it - but they thought they had a chance at another referendum, so risked unleashing their worst nightmare (Boris and No Deal) rather than do the decent thing
    Ultimately this is right I feel. Boris himself, and a few other other previous die hards, voted for May's deal at the last chance because they were worried about Brexit as a whole being prevented, because that was very clearly a goal in play. Not enough of their fellows went with them, but equally some on the other side could have voted yes in fear of no deal or harder deals, and they didn't because they thought they could win outright.

    In the end neither side's most passionate actors were prepared to cut a deal to exit on terms they did not like, and they gambled everything on a GE. And one side lost.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,403

    Andy_JS said:
    No that's a completely different point. Andrew Neil's point, which has merit, is that it's only a 50% chance the contest will be Biden v. Trump.
    Nah. Unless something seriously goes wrong (Biden has a stroke, Trump gets convicted and imprisoned, or one or both die from old age) it'll be Biden vs Trump: The Rematch.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    stodge said:

    isam said:

    If Johnson were still PM though some of the people queuing up to tell the country the truth about what a blustering, pig-ignorant, malignant sack of pus and lies the man is would still be surgically inserting themselves as far up his arse as they possibly could, as they did before. Nothing loosens the lips quite like seeing the subject of your criticism fall from power. It is not Johnson but his enablers who deserve the full measure of our scorn.

    "it is not Johnson but his enablers who deserve the full measure of our scorn"

    Is that the people who tried to stop the referendum result being implemented? They're the only reason he ever became PM
    No, he became leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister because, in the summer of 2019, polling showed he was the only one of the Conservative leadership contenders capable of winning an election and stopping votes going to Farage's Brexit Party.

    There was some ComRes polling in June 2019 which showed that and from then on his ascent to No.10 was inevitable. Once in office, and you're quite right, the more the opposition tried to frustrate the implementation of Brexit, the higher the Conservative poll rating went.
    Theresa May agreed a deal with the EU that parliament, the majority of whom were Remain inclined, refused to votre through; it should have been a walkover- we had voted to Leave, the PM had cut a deal, thats it - but they thought they had a chance at another referendum, so risked unleashing their worst nightmare (Boris and No Deal) rather than do the decent thing
    Ultimately this is right I feel. Boris himself, and a few other other previous die hards, voted for May's deal at the last chance because they were worried about Brexit as a whole being prevented, because that was very clearly a goal in play. Not enough of their fellows went with them, but equally some on the other side could have voted yes in fear of no deal or harder deals, and they didn't because they thought they could win outright.

    In the end neither side's most passionate actors were prepared to cut a deal to exit on terms they did not like, and they gambled everything on a GE. And one side lost.
    2017-2019 was dismal in the extreme. So much political effort squandered so pointlessly.
  • viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:
    No that's a completely different point. Andrew Neil's point, which has merit, is that it's only a 50% chance the contest will be Biden v. Trump.
    Nah. Unless something seriously goes wrong (Biden has a stroke, Trump gets convicted and imprisoned, or one or both die from old age) it'll be Biden vs Trump: The Rematch.
    Exactly what Neil is saying.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,952

    Andy_JS said:
    No that's a completely different point. Andrew Neil's point, which has merit, is that it's only a 50% chance the contest will be Biden v. Trump.
    Thanks for the correction.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538

    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Carnyx said:

    Cyclefree said:

    For fans of the Post Office Inquiry shitshow - this summary of Elaine Cottam's evidence yesterday by the wonderful Nick Wallis is a must read. The last paragraph pretty much sums it up - https://www.postofficescandal.uk/post/what-was-she-drinking-the-elaine-cottam-experience/.

    Indeed.

    'It appears that Elaine Cottam genuinely didn’t know what a witness statement was, nor had she worked out what it might be by the end of her inquiry session.

    Beer’s questioning concluded shortly thereafter. He had, without being derailed, successfully demonstrated that Fujitsu had kept a serious software problem from a Subpostmaster who then lost money and subsequently her livelihood as a result of the callous ineptitude of Elaine Cottam and her colleagues at the Post Office. Having achieved this, it seems someone at the Post Office went on to produce a misleading witness statement supposedly authored by someone without the capacity or capability of being responsible for it.'
    "When asked about this sentence, Cottam said she didn’t remember asking for any call logs, didn’t remember receiving them and didn’t know why she needed them, because she wouldn’t understand them. She seemed utterly mystified at the idea she might be able to offer any analysis of them, and with the air of someone looking at hieroglyphics on a piece of wood, told the Inquiry:"

    That would be funny were this not so serious. This piece of work repeatedly tried to insinuate dishonesty by the husband of the SPM on no basis whatsoever despite being repeatedly challenged by the KC referring to it as the "suspicion without proof issue raising its head again?”

    Ropes and lampposts are too good for these people.

    Cottam has also thrown the lawyer under the bus here. This lawyer has given evidence already but will likely need to be recalled because it appears that she wrote the witness statement and/or coached the witness in a way which should get her struck off. Though my guess is that the SRA will prove even more ineffectual than the Met at nailing any of these bastards.
    "The world is full of thick-as-mince, malevolent incompetents like Elaine Cottam. The problems start when they are promoted into positions of power, as the Post Office appears to have done with multiple idiots on multiple occasions. I really hope the Met Police are taking note."

    The Post Office managers, and the professional people who work for them, actually seem to be even more stupid, dishonest, incompetent, and malevolent, than the Conservative Parliamentary Party (and the Labour equivalent from 2007-10). They're on a par with Doncaster Council in the 1990's, and Rotherham Council in the 00's.

    I hope a lot of them get done for perjury and perverting the course of justice.
    I think it's rather far-fetched to imagine that there are 'bad people' around who happen to end up in these responsible positions in the NHS, the police force, and other such public bodies. On the contrary, they are deliberately trained to be this way.
    It's not a conspiracy, it's a cock-up (management ineptitude).

    And it's not confined to public bodies - I saw it in banks and insurance companies I worked for - and the Post Office is a private company of course.
    The view is that you must stop at nothing, however unethical, in order to protect the reputation of the institution - which makes the reputational damage worse in the long run. You must never blow the whistle on other members of the institution. At the same time, some people with power will abuse it, and not be held to account.

    It ‘s not conspiracy, but it goes beyond honest, or even negligent, error.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    stodge said:

    TimS said:

    slade said:

    A mixed bag of local by-elections tomorrow. There is one for Mayor of Hackney - should be a safe Lab hold but watch out for the Green vote. Lab also have a defence in Lewisham. We have a double defence in Powys for independents elected as Lib Dems. There is also a Ind defence in South Holland and Con defences in Lincolnshire and South Kesteven.

    The Lewisham defence is Deptford ward. 3 councillors elected in May last year, all Labour. But the greens are quite a strong second. Pretty much a one and a half horse race but wouldn’t rule out a green gain.

    Lewisham council is one of those examples of the madness of FPTP. 50 councillors out of 50 are from one party. That’s not representative or healthy.
    There's a very strong argument for introducing some form of PR for local elections.
    STV in three member wards would work.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,755
    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    TimS said:

    slade said:

    A mixed bag of local by-elections tomorrow. There is one for Mayor of Hackney - should be a safe Lab hold but watch out for the Green vote. Lab also have a defence in Lewisham. We have a double defence in Powys for independents elected as Lib Dems. There is also a Ind defence in South Holland and Con defences in Lincolnshire and South Kesteven.

    The Lewisham defence is Deptford ward. 3 councillors elected in May last year, all Labour. But the greens are quite a strong second. Pretty much a one and a half horse race but wouldn’t rule out a green gain.

    Lewisham council is one of those examples of the madness of FPTP. 50 councillors out of 50 are from one party. That’s not representative or healthy.
    There's a very strong argument for introducing some form of PR for local elections.
    You mean, do like what they have in Wales and Scotland? Revolutionary.
    Whatever they have in Wales and Scotland, it certainly isn't PR.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:
    No that's a completely different point. Andrew Neil's point, which has merit, is that it's only a 50% chance the contest will be Biden v. Trump.
    Nah. Unless something seriously goes wrong (Biden has a stroke, Trump gets convicted and imprisoned, or one or both die from old age) it'll be Biden vs Trump: The Rematch.
    Well let me put this to you: if Biden had decided not to stand, he'd have already told us right? No, of course he wouldn't - he'd wait until the last possible moment.

    I think it's probable Biden will stand but also would guess there's a 20-30% chance he's already decided not to stand. So we need to add that to the stroke/conviction/death causes of it not being Biden v Trump.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    The Dems are banking on Trump being the nominee . I think it’s highly unlikely he will ever get convicted as it’s hard to find a jury that could return a unanimous verdict but if a miracle happens and he does then Dem plans are in trouble .

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    edited November 2023
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:
    No that's a completely different point. Andrew Neil's point, which has merit, is that it's only a 50% chance the contest will be Biden v. Trump.
    Nah. Unless something seriously goes wrong (Biden has a stroke, Trump gets convicted and imprisoned, or one or both die from old age) it'll be Biden vs Trump: The Rematch.
    According to the betting, it is a 70% chance that Biden will be the Democrat nominee and 80% chance that Trump will be the Republican.

    If these two events are independent, then it is a 56% chance that the contest will be Biden v. Trump.

    EDIT. In practice I suspect that if Trump doesn't stand, neither will Biden. Then it will be Newsom v. Haley (40 on Betfair).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,915
    nico679 said:

    The Dems are banking on Trump being the nominee . I think it’s highly unlikely he will ever get convicted as it’s hard to find a jury that could return a unanimous verdict but if a miracle happens and he does then Dem plans are in trouble .

    In DC where one of his criminal cases is over 90% voted for Biden.

    However Trump also has supporters who will only vote for him and might eve vote for RFK if he cannot be a candidate or stay home
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2023
    Scott_xP said:

    Some people said Brexit was a bad idea.

    They were right, and the public agrees.

    Some people said BoZo would be an even bigger disaster than Brexit.

    They were right, and the public agrees.

    And still some folks want to lay the blame for both of these catastrophes on those who didn't want them, didn't advocate them, didn't campaign for them, didn't vote for them.

    You won, guys!

    Suck it up !!!

    I’m still happy we won. I said many times around 2016/17 that when if we had the most Remainy govt possible, that would be parliamentary democracy in action and fair enough. I’d have suffered Cameron staying on and negotiating the softest deal he could.

    The public never got a say on Boris though, other than to keep backing him to win elections; in a way that’s quite satisfying for him I’d have thought
  • TimS said:

    Do you think Nigel Farage would make a good or a bad leader of the Conservative Party?

    Very good leader: 8% (Con 2019 voter 18%)
    Fairly good leader: 13% (Con 23%)
    Fairly bad leader: 12% (Con 14%)
    Very bad leader: 45% (Con 27%)

    yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1722298400798818624?s=46

    Which equates to 21 out of 78 having a positive view of Farage as future leader. Or 27%. Roughly the same as current Tory polling. So a Conservative Party led by him in opposition would be as popular as Rishi’s current one. Possibly more so if those 22% who don’t know (how can anyone not know what they think to this question??) are shy Faragistes.

    PONFWAS! :lol:
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,661
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I wonder if there will ever be another Boris Johnson? - a Tory who wins the London Mayoralty twice, the first when he began as rank outsider, wins a referendum vs the establishment who were 1/4f, then a landslide at a GE, yet still have all his opponents refusing to admit he was really a threat, and kidding themselves they only wanted rid of him because he was a liability, rather than the bloke who kept beating them every time

    But that's not true. There's lots of us lefties, like me, who readily admit that Boris was a threat and a formidable electoral machine who was very hard to beat. We may have been baffled by his huge appeal, but we never denied it.

    And yes, we wanted rid of him because he was a winner. But we failed - it wasn't us who got rid of him. It was his own party, with ample help from Boris himself.
    Actually I think there aren’t many like you who do admit it. Not on here anyway
    I've written a thousand posts recognizing whilst bemoaning his spooky appeal. It was key to predicting and betting on a Con landslide in 2019. Which I did before almost anyone.

    You're hamstrung by your undying love for the man and the fact you failed to see his demise coming before he got the chance to fight another GE. As I didn't tbf. I thought he'd somehow survive right up until he didn't.
    It really isn't undying love; I was reluctant to vote for him at GE19, and wished I didn't have to in order to Get Brexit Done

    I just argued against the hordes of haters who channeled their referendum grief via non stop criticism of him, ("People of Colour/Talent" etc) and thought the ratings/polls in 2020 pointed to a likely Con Maj. I still think they did, had partygate not happened. No one knew about it then, it was a black swan that derailed my whole line of thinking
    Some valid points there. But you are a fan and there's no shame in it. We've agreed he had an appeal to many so it's no surprise it would include somebody who was a passionate leaver and rates 'charisma' as what a politician most needs. You liked him anyway, because of his outsized joshing personality, and then when he put the Remoaner democracy-deniers to the sword and saved and delivered Brexit, whilst all the while having a laugh and a joke, well this sealed the deal for you. He has a place in your heart and always will. It'd be odd otherwise and it speaks well of you.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,661
    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    I wonder if there will ever be another Boris Johnson? - a Tory who wins the London Mayoralty twice, the first when he began as rank outsider, wins a referendum vs the establishment who were 1/4f, then a landslide at a GE, yet still have all his opponents refusing to admit he was really a threat, and kidding themselves they only wanted rid of him because he was a liability, rather than the bloke who kept beating them every time

    But that's not true. There's lots of us lefties, like me, who readily admit that Boris was a threat and a formidable electoral machine who was very hard to beat. We may have been baffled by his huge appeal, but we never denied it.

    And yes, we wanted rid of him because he was a winner. But we failed - it wasn't us who got rid of him. It was his own party, with ample help from Boris himself.
    They got rid of him as soon as they believed he would no longer be an electoral asset. And we can see that Boris Johnson agreed with them, because he was so confident in his appeal to the voters that he turned tail and fled from the prospect of fighting a by-election in his seat.
    The Tories wanted the short term hit and chose to ignore the long term cold turkey. They enjoyed the hit and now deserve that they have coming to them as a consequence.
    They do. Totally.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,755
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    TimS said:

    slade said:

    A mixed bag of local by-elections tomorrow. There is one for Mayor of Hackney - should be a safe Lab hold but watch out for the Green vote. Lab also have a defence in Lewisham. We have a double defence in Powys for independents elected as Lib Dems. There is also a Ind defence in South Holland and Con defences in Lincolnshire and South Kesteven.

    The Lewisham defence is Deptford ward. 3 councillors elected in May last year, all Labour. But the greens are quite a strong second. Pretty much a one and a half horse race but wouldn’t rule out a green gain.

    Lewisham council is one of those examples of the madness of FPTP. 50 councillors out of 50 are from one party. That’s not representative or healthy.
    There's a very strong argument for introducing some form of PR for local elections.
    You mean, do like what they have in Wales and Scotland? Revolutionary.
    Whatever they have in Wales and Scotland, it certainly isn't PR.
    I think however on a careful reading you may have been referring to the system for local elections in Scotland? Which is much closer to PR.

    I'd be happy to see that in England and Wales, certainly.

    But not that stupid D'Hondt nonsense which is in Wales at least usually even less proportional than FPTP.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I wonder if there will ever be another Boris Johnson? - a Tory who wins the London Mayoralty twice, the first when he began as rank outsider, wins a referendum vs the establishment who were 1/4f, then a landslide at a GE, yet still have all his opponents refusing to admit he was really a threat, and kidding themselves they only wanted rid of him because he was a liability, rather than the bloke who kept beating them every time

    But that's not true. There's lots of us lefties, like me, who readily admit that Boris was a threat and a formidable electoral machine who was very hard to beat. We may have been baffled by his huge appeal, but we never denied it.

    And yes, we wanted rid of him because he was a winner. But we failed - it wasn't us who got rid of him. It was his own party, with ample help from Boris himself.
    Actually I think there aren’t many like you who do admit it. Not on here anyway
    I've written a thousand posts recognizing whilst bemoaning his spooky appeal. It was key to predicting and betting on a Con landslide in 2019. Which I did before almost anyone.

    You're hamstrung by your undying love for the man and the fact you failed to see his demise coming before he got the chance to fight another GE. As I didn't tbf. I thought he'd somehow survive right up until he didn't.
    It really isn't undying love; I was reluctant to vote for him at GE19, and wished I didn't have to in order to Get Brexit Done

    I just argued against the hordes of haters who channeled their referendum grief via non stop criticism of him, ("People of Colour/Talent" etc) and thought the ratings/polls in 2020 pointed to a likely Con Maj. I still think they did, had partygate not happened. No one knew about it then, it was a black swan that derailed my whole line of thinking
    Some valid points there. But you are a fan and there's no shame in it. We've agreed he had an appeal to many so it's no surprise it would include somebody who was a passionate leaver and rates 'charisma' as what a politician most needs. You liked him anyway, because of his outsized joshing personality, and then when he put the Remoaner democracy-deniers to the sword and saved and delivered Brexit, whilst all the while having a laugh and a joke, well this sealed the deal for you. He has a place in your heart and always will. It'd be odd otherwise and it speaks well of you.
    I never thought anything of him either way really until he got Brexit over the line; I was more of a Farage fan if anything. I’d previously been a sufferer from BDS in 2008
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989
    isam said:

    stodge said:

    isam said:

    If Johnson were still PM though some of the people queuing up to tell the country the truth about what a blustering, pig-ignorant, malignant sack of pus and lies the man is would still be surgically inserting themselves as far up his arse as they possibly could, as they did before. Nothing loosens the lips quite like seeing the subject of your criticism fall from power. It is not Johnson but his enablers who deserve the full measure of our scorn.

    "it is not Johnson but his enablers who deserve the full measure of our scorn"

    Is that the people who tried to stop the referendum result being implemented? They're the only reason he ever became PM
    No, he became leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister because, in the summer of 2019, polling showed he was the only one of the Conservative leadership contenders capable of winning an election and stopping votes going to Farage's Brexit Party.

    There was some ComRes polling in June 2019 which showed that and from then on his ascent to No.10 was inevitable. Once in office, and you're quite right, the more the opposition tried to frustrate the implementation of Brexit, the higher the Conservative poll rating went.
    Theresa May agreed a deal with the EU that parliament, the majority of whom were Remain inclined, refused to votre through; it should have been a walkover- we had voted to Leave, the PM had cut a deal, thats it - but they thought they had a chance at another referendum, so risked unleashing their worst nightmare (Boris and No Deal) rather than do the decent thing
    Again, that's not why Boris became PM as far as the Conservatives were concerned. They were facing an existential crisis - a potential flood of votes to the Brexit Party which had won the European Parliementary elections (Conservatives on just 9%). If the alternative to schism and obscurity was Boris, it was always going to be Boris.

    It was never going to be Hunt or Javid who would oversee the split of the centre-right.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    stodge said:

    isam said:

    stodge said:

    isam said:

    If Johnson were still PM though some of the people queuing up to tell the country the truth about what a blustering, pig-ignorant, malignant sack of pus and lies the man is would still be surgically inserting themselves as far up his arse as they possibly could, as they did before. Nothing loosens the lips quite like seeing the subject of your criticism fall from power. It is not Johnson but his enablers who deserve the full measure of our scorn.

    "it is not Johnson but his enablers who deserve the full measure of our scorn"

    Is that the people who tried to stop the referendum result being implemented? They're the only reason he ever became PM
    No, he became leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister because, in the summer of 2019, polling showed he was the only one of the Conservative leadership contenders capable of winning an election and stopping votes going to Farage's Brexit Party.

    There was some ComRes polling in June 2019 which showed that and from then on his ascent to No.10 was inevitable. Once in office, and you're quite right, the more the opposition tried to frustrate the implementation of Brexit, the higher the Conservative poll rating went.
    Theresa May agreed a deal with the EU that parliament, the majority of whom were Remain inclined, refused to votre through; it should have been a walkover- we had voted to Leave, the PM had cut a deal, thats it - but they thought they had a chance at another referendum, so risked unleashing their worst nightmare (Boris and No Deal) rather than do the decent thing
    Again, that's not why Boris became PM as far as the Conservatives were concerned. They were facing an existential crisis - a potential flood of votes to the Brexit Party which had won the European Parliementary elections (Conservatives on just 9%). If the alternative to schism and obscurity was Boris, it was always going to be Boris.

    It was never going to be Hunt or Javid who would oversee the split of the centre-right.
    Try to understand that had May’s deal passed the commons, he’d never have been PM
  • I always suspected that Boris was some form of attention seeking social inadequate, but I realise that I was wrong.

    He is simply a complete idiot.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,661

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:
    No that's a completely different point. Andrew Neil's point, which has merit, is that it's only a 50% chance the contest will be Biden v. Trump.
    Nah. Unless something seriously goes wrong (Biden has a stroke, Trump gets convicted and imprisoned, or one or both die from old age) it'll be Biden vs Trump: The Rematch.
    Well let me put this to you: if Biden had decided not to stand, he'd have already told us right? No, of course he wouldn't - he'd wait until the last possible moment.

    I think it's probable Biden will stand but also would guess there's a 20-30% chance he's already decided not to stand. So we need to add that to the stroke/conviction/death causes of it not being Biden v Trump.
    I make it less than 50/50 it's Biden v Trump. Market makes it 1.6 and I've laid that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    nico679 said:

    The Dems are banking on Trump being the nominee . I think it’s highly unlikely he will ever get convicted as it’s hard to find a jury that could return a unanimous verdict but if a miracle happens and he does then Dem plans are in trouble .

    Trump has already lost the New York case - the only issue is quantum. It could easily be enough to wipe him out. His legal team's entire strategy seems to rely upon provoking the judge into making outbursts they can portray as "gotcha!" moments. Unfortunately for their client, much as they try every trick in the Trump playbook, the judge isn't biting.

    There aren't going to be their attempted manufactured grounds for a mistrial. Nor do there look to be any grounds for it to be overturned on appeal. So Trump will be broke, his sons unemployed. His schtick that he has sold to his supporters of being the Best. Businessman. Ever is going to look like so much hollow words.

    At least one of the juries will convict him. If it is Georgia, he has no route for pardon.

    The Emperor's Clothes are no longer covering his crown jewels. He still has a year to shrivel before our very eyes.
  • Barnesian said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:
    No that's a completely different point. Andrew Neil's point, which has merit, is that it's only a 50% chance the contest will be Biden v. Trump.
    Nah. Unless something seriously goes wrong (Biden has a stroke, Trump gets convicted and imprisoned, or one or both die from old age) it'll be Biden vs Trump: The Rematch.
    According to the betting, it is a 70% chance that Biden will be the Democrat nominee and 80% chance that Trump will be the Republican.

    If these two events are independent, then it is a 56% chance that the contest will be Biden v. Trump.

    EDIT. In practice I suspect that if Trump doesn't stand, neither will Biden. Then it will be Newsom v. Haley (40 on Betfair).
    Indeed.

    But are they independent??

  • nico679 said:

    The Dems are banking on Trump being the nominee . I think it’s highly unlikely he will ever get convicted as it’s hard to find a jury that could return a unanimous verdict but if a miracle happens and he does then Dem plans are in trouble .

    If Trump falls my view is Halley will be the GOP candidate and she will win.
  • The problem for the Democrats is that if Biden goes, who replaces him?

    There are two risks here.

    First, that there would then be a lot of pressure to nominate Harris. This is, not to put too fine a point on it, a suboptimal move in boosting their 2024 chances.

    Second, that they choose a ‘progressive’ Democrat who the GOP can get their teeth into as a wokey extreme radical left type. This may play well with the Democratic base. But does it play well in the swing states?

    The issue therefore is that Biden leaving office feels like a roll of the dice. And I think that’s why he has made the calculation he has, to stay in the race. I don’t really think he should, but him quitting is not the cure-all some assume.



  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    I always suspected that Boris was some form of attention seeking social inadequate, but I realise that I was wrong.

    He is simply a complete idiot.

    You sure he's complete?

    (Heard an interesting story of a recent Boris temper tantrum, after somebody suggested things hadn't been going especially well for him lately...)
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214
    isam said:

    stodge said:

    isam said:

    stodge said:

    isam said:

    If Johnson were still PM though some of the people queuing up to tell the country the truth about what a blustering, pig-ignorant, malignant sack of pus and lies the man is would still be surgically inserting themselves as far up his arse as they possibly could, as they did before. Nothing loosens the lips quite like seeing the subject of your criticism fall from power. It is not Johnson but his enablers who deserve the full measure of our scorn.

    "it is not Johnson but his enablers who deserve the full measure of our scorn"

    Is that the people who tried to stop the referendum result being implemented? They're the only reason he ever became PM
    No, he became leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister because, in the summer of 2019, polling showed he was the only one of the Conservative leadership contenders capable of winning an election and stopping votes going to Farage's Brexit Party.

    There was some ComRes polling in June 2019 which showed that and from then on his ascent to No.10 was inevitable. Once in office, and you're quite right, the more the opposition tried to frustrate the implementation of Brexit, the higher the Conservative poll rating went.
    Theresa May agreed a deal with the EU that parliament, the majority of whom were Remain inclined, refused to votre through; it should have been a walkover- we had voted to Leave, the PM had cut a deal, thats it - but they thought they had a chance at another referendum, so risked unleashing their worst nightmare (Boris and No Deal) rather than do the decent thing
    Again, that's not why Boris became PM as far as the Conservatives were concerned. They were facing an existential crisis - a potential flood of votes to the Brexit Party which had won the European Parliementary elections (Conservatives on just 9%). If the alternative to schism and obscurity was Boris, it was always going to be Boris.

    It was never going to be Hunt or Javid who would oversee the split of the centre-right.
    Try to understand that had May’s deal passed the commons, he’d never have been PM
    He was always going to be PM (or at least Tory party leader) at some point. His ambition made it almost unavoidable. Had May managed to get through to a 21/22 election he would now either be LOTO after a May election loss, or waiting in the wings for the next leadership election if she managed to win.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,061
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    TimS said:

    slade said:

    A mixed bag of local by-elections tomorrow. There is one for Mayor of Hackney - should be a safe Lab hold but watch out for the Green vote. Lab also have a defence in Lewisham. We have a double defence in Powys for independents elected as Lib Dems. There is also a Ind defence in South Holland and Con defences in Lincolnshire and South Kesteven.

    The Lewisham defence is Deptford ward. 3 councillors elected in May last year, all Labour. But the greens are quite a strong second. Pretty much a one and a half horse race but wouldn’t rule out a green gain.

    Lewisham council is one of those examples of the madness of FPTP. 50 councillors out of 50 are from one party. That’s not representative or healthy.
    There's a very strong argument for introducing some form of PR for local elections.
    You mean, do like what they have in Wales and Scotland? Revolutionary.
    Whatever they have in Wales and Scotland, it certainly isn't PR.
    STV for Scottish local elections is as close as you can get without losing local representation. The D’Hondt system used for Scottish Parliament elections was a fudge concocted by Labour and the Lib Dems to guarantee their staying in power permanently; which worked until 2007, when it didn’t.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,636
    Cyclefree said:

    Stocky said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Carnyx said:

    Cyclefree said:

    For fans of the Post Office Inquiry shitshow - this summary of Elaine Cottam's evidence yesterday by the wonderful Nick Wallis is a must read. The last paragraph pretty much sums it up - https://www.postofficescandal.uk/post/what-was-she-drinking-the-elaine-cottam-experience/.

    Indeed.

    'It appears that Elaine Cottam genuinely didn’t know what a witness statement was, nor had she worked out what it might be by the end of her inquiry session.

    Beer’s questioning concluded shortly thereafter. He had, without being derailed, successfully demonstrated that Fujitsu had kept a serious software problem from a Subpostmaster who then lost money and subsequently her livelihood as a result of the callous ineptitude of Elaine Cottam and her colleagues at the Post Office. Having achieved this, it seems someone at the Post Office went on to produce a misleading witness statement supposedly authored by someone without the capacity or capability of being responsible for it.'
    "When asked about this sentence, Cottam said she didn’t remember asking for any call logs, didn’t remember receiving them and didn’t know why she needed them, because she wouldn’t understand them. She seemed utterly mystified at the idea she might be able to offer any analysis of them, and with the air of someone looking at hieroglyphics on a piece of wood, told the Inquiry:"

    That would be funny were this not so serious. This piece of work repeatedly tried to insinuate dishonesty by the husband of the SPM on no basis whatsoever despite being repeatedly challenged by the KC referring to it as the "suspicion without proof issue raising its head again?”

    Ropes and lampposts are too good for these people.

    Cottam has also thrown the lawyer under the bus here. This lawyer has given evidence already but will likely need to be recalled because it appears that she wrote the witness statement and/or coached the witness in a way which should get her struck off. Though my guess is that the SRA will prove even more ineffectual than the Met at nailing any of these bastards.
    Forgive me for not following this story but given it's established now that those who were originally accused were innocent of stealing any money is the suggestion now that someone else did or that no money was actually stolen at all?
    No money was stolen. There were no crimes. The Horizon system was spewing out nonsense figures. The prosecutions and civil actions were on the basis of nonsense figures which were wholly untrue.
    It's worse than that: the Post Office's accounting system was showing unexplained profits which - in aggregate - were equal to the amount of money allegedly stolen. That nobody thought to ask "why is money building up here with no explanation, and why does it exactly match the amount of money allegedly pilfered?"

  • Oh, and for what it’s worth I still hold firmly to the view that if it is a Biden v Trump rematch, Biden will win.

    However, if Trump fails and someone like Haley steps in, the Democrats are probably doomed if Biden is the nominee.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,661
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I wonder if there will ever be another Boris Johnson? - a Tory who wins the London Mayoralty twice, the first when he began as rank outsider, wins a referendum vs the establishment who were 1/4f, then a landslide at a GE, yet still have all his opponents refusing to admit he was really a threat, and kidding themselves they only wanted rid of him because he was a liability, rather than the bloke who kept beating them every time

    But that's not true. There's lots of us lefties, like me, who readily admit that Boris was a threat and a formidable electoral machine who was very hard to beat. We may have been baffled by his huge appeal, but we never denied it.

    And yes, we wanted rid of him because he was a winner. But we failed - it wasn't us who got rid of him. It was his own party, with ample help from Boris himself.
    Actually I think there aren’t many like you who do admit it. Not on here anyway
    I've written a thousand posts recognizing whilst bemoaning his spooky appeal. It was key to predicting and betting on a Con landslide in 2019. Which I did before almost anyone.

    You're hamstrung by your undying love for the man and the fact you failed to see his demise coming before he got the chance to fight another GE. As I didn't tbf. I thought he'd somehow survive right up until he didn't.
    It really isn't undying love; I was reluctant to vote for him at GE19, and wished I didn't have to in order to Get Brexit Done

    I just argued against the hordes of haters who channeled their referendum grief via non stop criticism of him, ("People of Colour/Talent" etc) and thought the ratings/polls in 2020 pointed to a likely Con Maj. I still think they did, had partygate not happened. No one knew about it then, it was a black swan that derailed my whole line of thinking
    Some valid points there. But you are a fan and there's no shame in it. We've agreed he had an appeal to many so it's no surprise it would include somebody who was a passionate leaver and rates 'charisma' as what a politician most needs. You liked him anyway, because of his outsized joshing personality, and then when he put the Remoaner democracy-deniers to the sword and saved and delivered Brexit, whilst all the while having a laugh and a joke, well this sealed the deal for you. He has a place in your heart and always will. It'd be odd otherwise and it speaks well of you.
    I never thought anything of him either way really until he got Brexit over the line; I was more of a Farage fan if anything. I’d previously been a sufferer from BDS in 2008
    Replaced now with SKDS. I think the positivity - liking Boris - is better. And yes he did get Brexit over the line. He so did and I'm not sure anybody else could have. Least not so quickly and decisively. I'd be a fan too if I were you instead of me.
  • The problem for the Democrats is that if Biden goes, who replaces him?

    There are two risks here.

    First, that there would then be a lot of pressure to nominate Harris. This is, not to put too fine a point on it, a suboptimal move in boosting their 2024 chances.

    Second, that they choose a ‘progressive’ Democrat who the GOP can get their teeth into as a wokey extreme radical left type. This may play well with the Democratic base. But does it play well in the swing states?

    The issue therefore is that Biden leaving office feels like a roll of the dice. And I think that’s why he has made the calculation he has, to stay in the race. I don’t really think he should, but him quitting is not the cure-all some assume.



    There's a load of Dems could take up the sword if there was a full primary. Whitmer etc.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I wonder if there will ever be another Boris Johnson? - a Tory who wins the London Mayoralty twice, the first when he began as rank outsider, wins a referendum vs the establishment who were 1/4f, then a landslide at a GE, yet still have all his opponents refusing to admit he was really a threat, and kidding themselves they only wanted rid of him because he was a liability, rather than the bloke who kept beating them every time

    But that's not true. There's lots of us lefties, like me, who readily admit that Boris was a threat and a formidable electoral machine who was very hard to beat. We may have been baffled by his huge appeal, but we never denied it.

    And yes, we wanted rid of him because he was a winner. But we failed - it wasn't us who got rid of him. It was his own party, with ample help from Boris himself.
    Actually I think there aren’t many like you who do admit it. Not on here anyway
    I've written a thousand posts recognizing whilst bemoaning his spooky appeal. It was key to predicting and betting on a Con landslide in 2019. Which I did before almost anyone.

    You're hamstrung by your undying love for the man and the fact you failed to see his demise coming before he got the chance to fight another GE. As I didn't tbf. I thought he'd somehow survive right up until he didn't.
    It really isn't undying love; I was reluctant to vote for him at GE19, and wished I didn't have to in order to Get Brexit Done

    I just argued against the hordes of haters who channeled their referendum grief via non stop criticism of him, ("People of Colour/Talent" etc) and thought the ratings/polls in 2020 pointed to a likely Con Maj. I still think they did, had partygate not happened. No one knew about it then, it was a black swan that derailed my whole line of thinking
    Some valid points there. But you are a fan and there's no shame in it. We've agreed he had an appeal to many so it's no surprise it would include somebody who was a passionate leaver and rates 'charisma' as what a politician most needs. You liked him anyway, because of his outsized joshing personality, and then when he put the Remoaner democracy-deniers to the sword and saved and delivered Brexit, whilst all the while having a laugh and a joke, well this sealed the deal for you. He has a place in your heart and always will. It'd be odd otherwise and it speaks well of you.
    I never thought anything of him either way really until he got Brexit over the line; I was more of a Farage fan if anything. I’d previously been a sufferer from BDS in 2008
    Replaced now with SKDS. I think the positivity - liking Boris - is better. And yes he did get Brexit over the line. He so did and I'm not sure anybody else could have. Least not so quickly and decisively. I'd be a fan too if I were you instead of me.
    A puzzling creature you are! Some kind of amateur/repressed psychologist?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,636

    An interesting article from the Atlantic:

    "Peace is impossible while Vladimir Putin denies Ukraine’s right to exist"

    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/peace-is-impossible-while-vladimir-putin-denies-ukraines-right-to-exist/

    Of course, the same thing can be said for another trouble spit: Peace is impossible while Hamas denies Israel's right to exist...

    I'm not sure Israel is completely sound on Hamas's right to exist after the 7th October outrages, which is where the parallel with Russia/Ukraine breaks down.
    Indeed, there are many members of Israel's governing coalition who (publicly) believe in the River to the Sea, only for the State of Israel, rather than the State of Palestine.
  • An interesting article from the Atlantic:

    "Peace is impossible while Vladimir Putin denies Ukraine’s right to exist"

    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/peace-is-impossible-while-vladimir-putin-denies-ukraines-right-to-exist/

    Of course, the same thing can be said for another trouble spit: Peace is impossible while Hamas denies Israel's right to exist...

    I'm not sure Israel is completely sound on Hamas's right to exist after the 7th October outrages, which is where the parallel with Russia/Ukraine breaks down.
    Hamas is a terrorist group, not a country or a populace.

    They have no 'right' to exist and should be destroyed.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,952
    Cyclefree said:

    For fans of the Post Office Inquiry shitshow - this summary of Elaine Cottam's evidence yesterday by the wonderful Nick Wallis is a must read. The last paragraph pretty much sums it up - https://www.postofficescandal.uk/post/what-was-she-drinking-the-elaine-cottam-experience/.

    Quote:

    "The world is full of thick-as-mince, malevolent incompetents like Elaine Cottam. The problems start when they are promoted into positions of power, as the Post Office appears to have done with multiple idiots on multiple occasions. I really hope the Met Police are taking note."
  • Boris Johnson is admitting he's a bit stupid and that he was a political catamite for Dom Cummings.

    Boris Johnson has warned that the Conservative Party is “drifting to defeat” under Rishi Sunak and said that the prime minister is just a “stooge” for Dominic Cummings.

    In a series of interviews with Nadine Dorries, a former cabinet minister, for her new book, he accuses Sunak of failing to offer a positive vision for the country and says he has given voters “nothing to rally behind”.

    The former prime minister says that Sunak should be much more ambitious and that the government needs a “massive kick in the pants”, suggesting that the Tories should be cutting corporation tax. Sunak, he says, has failed to offer an agenda for change.

    Boris Johnson has warned that the Conservative Party is “drifting to defeat” under Rishi Sunak and said that the prime minister is just a “stooge” for Dominic Cummings.

    In a series of interviews with Nadine Dorries, a former cabinet minister, for her new book, he accuses Sunak of failing to offer a positive vision for the country and says he has given voters “nothing to rally behind”.

    The former prime minister says that Sunak should be much more ambitious and that the government needs a “massive kick in the pants”, suggesting that the Tories should be cutting corporation tax. Sunak, he says, has failed to offer an agenda for change.

    He also says that Sunak is a front for the interests of others, including Cummings, Johnson’s former special adviser, comparing Sunak with protagonist in The Manchurian Candidate — a film about a US presidential candidate who is secretly a communist sleeper agent.

    “I heard that Cummings has said he started to plot to get rid of me in January 2020,” Johnson says. “The plot was always to get Rishi in. I just couldn’t see it at the time. It’s like this Manchurian candidate, their stooge.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-rishi-sunak-nadine-dorries-book-vfwz87k76
  • rcs1000 said:

    An interesting article from the Atlantic:

    "Peace is impossible while Vladimir Putin denies Ukraine’s right to exist"

    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/peace-is-impossible-while-vladimir-putin-denies-ukraines-right-to-exist/

    Of course, the same thing can be said for another trouble spit: Peace is impossible while Hamas denies Israel's right to exist...

    I'm not sure Israel is completely sound on Hamas's right to exist after the 7th October outrages, which is where the parallel with Russia/Ukraine breaks down.
    Indeed, there are many members of Israel's governing coalition who (publicly) believe in the River to the Sea, only for the State of Israel, rather than the State of Palestine.
    Israel is a democracy, and in democracies people have all sorts of views.

    Its not the stated or public view of Israel in general or most Israelis even if a few extremists hold that view.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,636
    Sean_F said:

    Stocky said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Stocky said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Carnyx said:

    Cyclefree said:

    For fans of the Post Office Inquiry shitshow - this summary of Elaine Cottam's evidence yesterday by the wonderful Nick Wallis is a must read. The last paragraph pretty much sums it up - https://www.postofficescandal.uk/post/what-was-she-drinking-the-elaine-cottam-experience/.

    Indeed.

    'It appears that Elaine Cottam genuinely didn’t know what a witness statement was, nor had she worked out what it might be by the end of her inquiry session.

    Beer’s questioning concluded shortly thereafter. He had, without being derailed, successfully demonstrated that Fujitsu had kept a serious software problem from a Subpostmaster who then lost money and subsequently her livelihood as a result of the callous ineptitude of Elaine Cottam and her colleagues at the Post Office. Having achieved this, it seems someone at the Post Office went on to produce a misleading witness statement supposedly authored by someone without the capacity or capability of being responsible for it.'
    "When asked about this sentence, Cottam said she didn’t remember asking for any call logs, didn’t remember receiving them and didn’t know why she needed them, because she wouldn’t understand them. She seemed utterly mystified at the idea she might be able to offer any analysis of them, and with the air of someone looking at hieroglyphics on a piece of wood, told the Inquiry:"

    That would be funny were this not so serious. This piece of work repeatedly tried to insinuate dishonesty by the husband of the SPM on no basis whatsoever despite being repeatedly challenged by the KC referring to it as the "suspicion without proof issue raising its head again?”

    Ropes and lampposts are too good for these people.

    Cottam has also thrown the lawyer under the bus here. This lawyer has given evidence already but will likely need to be recalled because it appears that she wrote the witness statement and/or coached the witness in a way which should get her struck off. Though my guess is that the SRA will prove even more ineffectual than the Met at nailing any of these bastards.
    Forgive me for not following this story but given it's established now that those who were originally accused were innocent of stealing any money is the suggestion now that someone else did or that no money was actually stolen at all?
    No money was stolen. There were no crimes. The Horizon system was spewing out nonsense figures. The prosecutions and civil actions were on the basis of nonsense figures which were wholly untrue.
    The Post Office was part of public sector back then wasn't it, why are these people not being compensated - why the inquiry?

    I feel a bit sorry for the Cottam woman - this was 20 years ago - presumably she is attending voluntarily as she is not being accused?
    I don’t feel sorry for her. She is both very stupid and very dishonest.
    If we banned stupidity and dishonesty, where would we get our politicians from?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,636

    rcs1000 said:

    An interesting article from the Atlantic:

    "Peace is impossible while Vladimir Putin denies Ukraine’s right to exist"

    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/peace-is-impossible-while-vladimir-putin-denies-ukraines-right-to-exist/

    Of course, the same thing can be said for another trouble spit: Peace is impossible while Hamas denies Israel's right to exist...

    I'm not sure Israel is completely sound on Hamas's right to exist after the 7th October outrages, which is where the parallel with Russia/Ukraine breaks down.
    Indeed, there are many members of Israel's governing coalition who (publicly) believe in the River to the Sea, only for the State of Israel, rather than the State of Palestine.
    Israel is a democracy, and in democracies people have all sorts of views.

    Its not the stated or public view of Israel in general or most Israelis even if a few extremists hold that view.
    Itamar Ben-Gvir is the leader of Jewish Power, and a member of the Israeli cabinet.
  • Boris Johnson is admitting he's a bit stupid and that he was a political catamite for Dom Cummings.

    Boris Johnson has warned that the Conservative Party is “drifting to defeat” under Rishi Sunak and said that the prime minister is just a “stooge” for Dominic Cummings.

    In a series of interviews with Nadine Dorries, a former cabinet minister, for her new book, he accuses Sunak of failing to offer a positive vision for the country and says he has given voters “nothing to rally behind”.

    The former prime minister says that Sunak should be much more ambitious and that the government needs a “massive kick in the pants”, suggesting that the Tories should be cutting corporation tax. Sunak, he says, has failed to offer an agenda for change.

    Boris Johnson has warned that the Conservative Party is “drifting to defeat” under Rishi Sunak and said that the prime minister is just a “stooge” for Dominic Cummings.

    In a series of interviews with Nadine Dorries, a former cabinet minister, for her new book, he accuses Sunak of failing to offer a positive vision for the country and says he has given voters “nothing to rally behind”.

    The former prime minister says that Sunak should be much more ambitious and that the government needs a “massive kick in the pants”, suggesting that the Tories should be cutting corporation tax. Sunak, he says, has failed to offer an agenda for change.

    He also says that Sunak is a front for the interests of others, including Cummings, Johnson’s former special adviser, comparing Sunak with protagonist in The Manchurian Candidate — a film about a US presidential candidate who is secretly a communist sleeper agent.

    “I heard that Cummings has said he started to plot to get rid of me in January 2020,” Johnson says. “The plot was always to get Rishi in. I just couldn’t see it at the time. It’s like this Manchurian candidate, their stooge.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-rishi-sunak-nadine-dorries-book-vfwz87k76

    Better late than never, I suppose.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,636
    Andy_JS said:

    Cyclefree said:

    For fans of the Post Office Inquiry shitshow - this summary of Elaine Cottam's evidence yesterday by the wonderful Nick Wallis is a must read. The last paragraph pretty much sums it up - https://www.postofficescandal.uk/post/what-was-she-drinking-the-elaine-cottam-experience/.

    Quote:

    "The world is full of thick-as-mince, malevolent incompetents like Elaine Cottam. The problems start when they are promoted into positions of power, as the Post Office appears to have done with multiple idiots on multiple occasions. I really hope the Met Police are taking note."
    The Met isn't just taking note, they're actively looking to emulate the Post Office.
  • rcs1000 said:

    An interesting article from the Atlantic:

    "Peace is impossible while Vladimir Putin denies Ukraine’s right to exist"

    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/peace-is-impossible-while-vladimir-putin-denies-ukraines-right-to-exist/

    Of course, the same thing can be said for another trouble spit: Peace is impossible while Hamas denies Israel's right to exist...

    I'm not sure Israel is completely sound on Hamas's right to exist after the 7th October outrages, which is where the parallel with Russia/Ukraine breaks down.
    Indeed, there are many members of Israel's governing coalition who (publicly) believe in the River to the Sea, only for the State of Israel, rather than the State of Palestine.
    Israel is a democracy, and in democracies people have all sorts of views.

    Its not the stated or public view of Israel in general or most Israelis even if a few extremists hold that view.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/05/netanyahu-reprimands-israeli-minister-over-gaza-nuclear-option-comment
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,471
    "Russians fired a Kh-31P anti-radar missile in the direction of a port in Odesa region using tactical aircraft in the Black Sea, Odesa Regional Military Administration informs.

    The missile hit the superstructure of a civilian ship under the flag of Liberia as it was entering the port.

    3 crew members, citizens of the Philippines, were injured, and one of them was hospitalized.

    A pilot of the ship was killed and another harbor worker was injured."

    https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1722305954962706901
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,975
    MattW said:

    Roger said:


    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    TimS said:

    Roger said:

    Don't know if it affects anyone but the French Senate have backed automatic visas for second home owners. So the roll back of Brexit has started. Hopefully it passes and is just the beginning of a dismantling which will be speeded up when we get a Labour government

    Interesting. Presumably still ones you have to apply and pay for?

    EDIT: looked it up and does indeed look good news https://www.connexionfrance.com/article/French-news/French-senate-backs-automatic-visa-right-for-UK-second-home-owners#

    Ideally that could help me avoid the increasingly frequent holdups at immigration (in other countries, the French never bother) while passport people count up my stamps.
    It should do that and improve the saleability of French properties. Many people I know who like to base themselves there will be delighted.
    The French authorities finally realising that border pedantry only harms their own economy, and that the British are are great source of money no longer worth pissing off just for the hell of it?
    More likely they felt they owed us after an enormous increase in 'Tax Habitation' charges now abolished for non second home owners
    Just been down that rabbithole on French property taxation.

    The idea that you are liable for Tax d'Habitation for the entire year because you had the right to occupy the property on January 1st is very ... French.
    https://www.french-property.com/guides/france/finance-taxation/taxation/local-property-taxes
    That's just a quirk. I suppose it's fair enough and it's not just to cripple the British as it also applies to the French. I don't know where you are in France but where i am there seems to be an influx of Americans Australians and Irish at the expense of the English. I've never known it as busy as it is now though. PS. Thanks for that link. Interesting
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Boris was still PM the Conservatives would at least be polling over 30% and Reform would not be polling the 5-10% they are on (if anything RefUK voters think Boris was too strict on lockdowns so would welcome the fact it seems he was more reticent on that after all).

    Labour would also not be polling as high as it is now in the redwall, albeit the LDs might be doing a bit better again in the bluewall

    Looking at the YouGov tables for 7 July 2022 (just before Boris annouced his departure) and 1 November 2023 on the Conservative 2019 votes we have the following movement.





    Top table 7 July 2022, bottom 1 November 2023

    So a reduction in 10 for conservative retainers, an increase of 10 for Reform switchers, a reduction of 5 for Lib Dem switchers and an increase of 5 of don't knows.

    So the swing from Conservative to Reform (and to a lesser extent to Labour) under Sunak is more than the swing from LD to Conservative since Boris has gone and Sunak became PM.

    TSE is of course in the latter category
    I’m voting Labour.
    Labour landslide incoming.
    I am in a Labour held seat and my vote is limited to the present circumstances only.

    I'm still a Tory member, my political outlook hasn't changed, I'm still a free market Thatcherite and One Nation Tory.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Cyclefree said:

    For fans of the Post Office Inquiry shitshow - this summary of Elaine Cottam's evidence yesterday by the wonderful Nick Wallis is a must read. The last paragraph pretty much sums it up - https://www.postofficescandal.uk/post/what-was-she-drinking-the-elaine-cottam-experience/.

    Quote:

    "The world is full of thick-as-mince, malevolent incompetents like Elaine Cottam. The problems start when they are promoted into positions of power, as the Post Office appears to have done with multiple idiots on multiple occasions. I really hope the Met Police are taking note."
    The Met isn't just taking note, they're actively looking to emulate the Post Office.
    Still outraged and disgusted that this government is going to give the rozzers the ability to break into our houses without a warrant.
  • An interesting article from the Atlantic:

    "Peace is impossible while Vladimir Putin denies Ukraine’s right to exist"

    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/peace-is-impossible-while-vladimir-putin-denies-ukraines-right-to-exist/

    Of course, the same thing can be said for another trouble spit: Peace is impossible while Hamas denies Israel's right to exist...

    I'm not sure Israel is completely sound on Hamas's right to exist after the 7th October outrages, which is where the parallel with Russia/Ukraine breaks down.
    Hamas is a terrorist group, not a country or a populace.

    They have no 'right' to exist and should be dee-stroyed.
    Bartholomew continued:
    "But I got a word of warning for all you would-be-warriors: when you join my command, you take on a debit, a debit you owe me personally. Each and every PBer under my command owes me one hundred Hamas scalps. And I want my scalps! And all y'all will get me one hundred Hamas scalps taken from the heads of one hundred dead Hamas terrorists, or you will die tryin'!"
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214
    Roger said:

    MattW said:

    Roger said:


    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    TimS said:

    Roger said:

    Don't know if it affects anyone but the French Senate have backed automatic visas for second home owners. So the roll back of Brexit has started. Hopefully it passes and is just the beginning of a dismantling which will be speeded up when we get a Labour government

    Interesting. Presumably still ones you have to apply and pay for?

    EDIT: looked it up and does indeed look good news https://www.connexionfrance.com/article/French-news/French-senate-backs-automatic-visa-right-for-UK-second-home-owners#

    Ideally that could help me avoid the increasingly frequent holdups at immigration (in other countries, the French never bother) while passport people count up my stamps.
    It should do that and improve the saleability of French properties. Many people I know who like to base themselves there will be delighted.
    The French authorities finally realising that border pedantry only harms their own economy, and that the British are are great source of money no longer worth pissing off just for the hell of it?
    More likely they felt they owed us after an enormous increase in 'Tax Habitation' charges now abolished for non second home owners
    Just been down that rabbithole on French property taxation.

    The idea that you are liable for Tax d'Habitation for the entire year because you had the right to occupy the property on January 1st is very ... French.
    https://www.french-property.com/guides/france/finance-taxation/taxation/local-property-taxes
    That's just a quirk. I suppose it's fair enough and it's not just to cripple the British as it also applies to the French. I don't know where you are in France but where i am there seems to be an influx of Americans Australians and Irish at the expense of the English. I've never known it as busy as it is now though. PS. Thanks for that link. Interesting
    Intriguingly, and for what reason I know not, Ireland this summer was packed to the rafters with French tourists. Easily the second, possibly the first nationality in terms of numbers.

    I can only speculate but the unbearable heat of recent summers in France and other parts of Western Europe might have had a bearing.
  • Roger said:

    MattW said:

    Roger said:


    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    TimS said:

    Roger said:

    Don't know if it affects anyone but the French Senate have backed automatic visas for second home owners. So the roll back of Brexit has started. Hopefully it passes and is just the beginning of a dismantling which will be speeded up when we get a Labour government

    Interesting. Presumably still ones you have to apply and pay for?

    EDIT: looked it up and does indeed look good news https://www.connexionfrance.com/article/French-news/French-senate-backs-automatic-visa-right-for-UK-second-home-owners#

    Ideally that could help me avoid the increasingly frequent holdups at immigration (in other countries, the French never bother) while passport people count up my stamps.
    It should do that and improve the saleability of French properties. Many people I know who like to base themselves there will be delighted.
    The French authorities finally realising that border pedantry only harms their own economy, and that the British are are great source of money no longer worth pissing off just for the hell of it?
    More likely they felt they owed us after an enormous increase in 'Tax Habitation' charges now abolished for non second home owners
    Just been down that rabbithole on French property taxation.

    The idea that you are liable for Tax d'Habitation for the entire year because you had the right to occupy the property on January 1st is very ... French.
    https://www.french-property.com/guides/france/finance-taxation/taxation/local-property-taxes
    That's just a quirk. I suppose it's fair enough and it's not just to cripple the British as it also applies to the French. I don't know where you are in France but where i am there seems to be an influx of Americans Australians and Irish at the expense of the English. I've never known it as busy as it is now though. PS. Thanks for that link. Interesting
    There goes the Riviera?

    Inevitable of course once they start letting the Irish in!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,661
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I wonder if there will ever be another Boris Johnson? - a Tory who wins the London Mayoralty twice, the first when he began as rank outsider, wins a referendum vs the establishment who were 1/4f, then a landslide at a GE, yet still have all his opponents refusing to admit he was really a threat, and kidding themselves they only wanted rid of him because he was a liability, rather than the bloke who kept beating them every time

    But that's not true. There's lots of us lefties, like me, who readily admit that Boris was a threat and a formidable electoral machine who was very hard to beat. We may have been baffled by his huge appeal, but we never denied it.

    And yes, we wanted rid of him because he was a winner. But we failed - it wasn't us who got rid of him. It was his own party, with ample help from Boris himself.
    Actually I think there aren’t many like you who do admit it. Not on here anyway
    I've written a thousand posts recognizing whilst bemoaning his spooky appeal. It was key to predicting and betting on a Con landslide in 2019. Which I did before almost anyone.

    You're hamstrung by your undying love for the man and the fact you failed to see his demise coming before he got the chance to fight another GE. As I didn't tbf. I thought he'd somehow survive right up until he didn't.
    It really isn't undying love; I was reluctant to vote for him at GE19, and wished I didn't have to in order to Get Brexit Done

    I just argued against the hordes of haters who channeled their referendum grief via non stop criticism of him, ("People of Colour/Talent" etc) and thought the ratings/polls in 2020 pointed to a likely Con Maj. I still think they did, had partygate not happened. No one knew about it then, it was a black swan that derailed my whole line of thinking
    Some valid points there. But you are a fan and there's no shame in it. We've agreed he had an appeal to many so it's no surprise it would include somebody who was a passionate leaver and rates 'charisma' as what a politician most needs. You liked him anyway, because of his outsized joshing personality, and then when he put the Remoaner democracy-deniers to the sword and saved and delivered Brexit, whilst all the while having a laugh and a joke, well this sealed the deal for you. He has a place in your heart and always will. It'd be odd otherwise and it speaks well of you.
    I never thought anything of him either way really until he got Brexit over the line; I was more of a Farage fan if anything. I’d previously been a sufferer from BDS in 2008
    Replaced now with SKDS. I think the positivity - liking Boris - is better. And yes he did get Brexit over the line. He so did and I'm not sure anybody else could have. Least not so quickly and decisively. I'd be a fan too if I were you instead of me.
    A puzzling creature you are! Some kind of amateur/repressed psychologist?
    Just empathy for who I'm talking to.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,078

    Boris Johnson is admitting he's a bit stupid and that he was a political catamite for Dom Cummings.

    Boris Johnson has warned that the Conservative Party is “drifting to defeat” under Rishi Sunak and said that the prime minister is just a “stooge” for Dominic Cummings.

    In a series of interviews with Nadine Dorries, a former cabinet minister, for her new book, he accuses Sunak of failing to offer a positive vision for the country and says he has given voters “nothing to rally behind”.

    The former prime minister says that Sunak should be much more ambitious and that the government needs a “massive kick in the pants”, suggesting that the Tories should be cutting corporation tax. Sunak, he says, has failed to offer an agenda for change.

    Boris Johnson has warned that the Conservative Party is “drifting to defeat” under Rishi Sunak and said that the prime minister is just a “stooge” for Dominic Cummings.

    In a series of interviews with Nadine Dorries, a former cabinet minister, for her new book, he accuses Sunak of failing to offer a positive vision for the country and says he has given voters “nothing to rally behind”.

    The former prime minister says that Sunak should be much more ambitious and that the government needs a “massive kick in the pants”, suggesting that the Tories should be cutting corporation tax. Sunak, he says, has failed to offer an agenda for change.

    He also says that Sunak is a front for the interests of others, including Cummings, Johnson’s former special adviser, comparing Sunak with protagonist in The Manchurian Candidate — a film about a US presidential candidate who is secretly a communist sleeper agent.

    “I heard that Cummings has said he started to plot to get rid of me in January 2020,” Johnson says. “The plot was always to get Rishi in. I just couldn’t see it at the time. It’s like this Manchurian candidate, their stooge.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-rishi-sunak-nadine-dorries-book-vfwz87k76

    Better late than never, I suppose.
    This seems unlikely. If Dom is secretly pulling the strings in order to get his own candidate in place, it would presumably be in order to do, well, something. Surely no machiavellian genius would go to such lengths just for policies on pedicabs and vaping?
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    An interesting article from the Atlantic:

    "Peace is impossible while Vladimir Putin denies Ukraine’s right to exist"

    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/peace-is-impossible-while-vladimir-putin-denies-ukraines-right-to-exist/

    Of course, the same thing can be said for another trouble spit: Peace is impossible while Hamas denies Israel's right to exist...

    I'm not sure Israel is completely sound on Hamas's right to exist after the 7th October outrages, which is where the parallel with Russia/Ukraine breaks down.
    Indeed, there are many members of Israel's governing coalition who (publicly) believe in the River to the Sea, only for the State of Israel, rather than the State of Palestine.
    Israel is a democracy, and in democracies people have all sorts of views.

    Its not the stated or public view of Israel in general or most Israelis even if a few extremists hold that view.
    Itamar Ben-Gvir is the leader of Jewish Power, and a member of the Israeli cabinet.
    Yes, and we have Jacob Rees Mogg who's been a member of the British cabinet.

    Democracies have a broad spectrum of elected politicians, Israel is no different. It is a democracy, democracies aren't supposed to only have a single view on subjects.

    The overwhelming majority of Israelis vote for parties still at least theoretically in favour of a two state solution, as even Netanyahu and Likud still claim to be.

    Though there's a world of difference between denying an existing state's right to exist (like Israel), and a potential theoretical future state's right to exist (like Palestine, Kurdistan etc).

    Turkey deny Kurdistan's right to exist, is that outrageous of them?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,955
    edited November 2023

    MattW said:

    Since I'm being totally off topic down rabbitholes this tea time (or dinner time if it is a hot meal), one for @Eabhal and maybe @Fairliered .

    There's a webinar being put on by Wheels for Wellbeing at 6pm this evening on influencing your Local Councillor about removing anti=wheelchair / anti-cycling barriers from footpaths and bridleways at 6 this evening:
    https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/wheels-for-wellbeing-x-hftf-training-tickets-727361236037

    Have a good evening all.

    Speaking as a pedestrian, I do not want cyclists on the footpath. Or horses.

    (Sunil or PtP might remember there used to be cattle roaming round Wanstead pre-foot and mouth.)
    Council officers are much happier to remove space from pedestrians than from motorists, hence the trend of converting paths to dual use, or reducing pavement width to incorporate cycle lanes.

    In Edinburgh this is despite a transport hierarchy, agreed by councillors, that puts pedestrians top and private car drivers last. Frustrating, and undermines local democracy.

    An good example of this is the use of the Union Canal towpath as a core cycle route. It's far too narrow, and many cyclists (including the CEO of my firm) end up in the canal itself dodging toddlers/dogs. Despite this, the council want to spend £XX million on a new fancy cycle bridge next to an aqueduct, rather than spending much less on just putting a decent segregated cycle lane on the adjacent road.
  • Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Since I'm being totally off topic down rabbitholes this tea time (or dinner time if it is a hot meal), one for @Eabhal and maybe @Fairliered .

    There's a webinar being put on by Wheels for Wellbeing at 6pm this evening on influencing your Local Councillor about removing anti=wheelchair / anti-cycling barriers from footpaths and bridleways at 6 this evening:
    https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/wheels-for-wellbeing-x-hftf-training-tickets-727361236037

    Have a good evening all.

    Speaking as a pedestrian, I do not want cyclists on the footpath. Or horses.

    (Sunil or PtP might remember there used to be cattle roaming round Wanstead pre-foot and mouth.)
    Council officers are much happier to remove space from pedestrians than from motorists, hence the trend of converting paths to dual use, or reducing pavement width to incorporate cycle lanes.

    In Edinburgh this is despite a transport hierarchy, agreed by councillors, that puts pedestrians top and private car drivers last. Frustrating, and undermines local democracy.

    An obvious example of this is the use of the Union Canal towpath as a core cycle route. It's far too narrow, and many cyclists (including the CEO of my firm) end up in the canal itself dodging toddlers/dogs. Despite this, the council want to spend £XX million on a new fancy cycle bridge next to an aqueduct, rather than spending much less on just putting a decent segregated cycle lane on the adjacent road.
    They should invest in building more new roads with dedicated segregated cycle lanes from the beginning.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,755
    Cookie said:

    Boris Johnson is admitting he's a bit stupid and that he was a political catamite for Dom Cummings.

    Boris Johnson has warned that the Conservative Party is “drifting to defeat” under Rishi Sunak and said that the prime minister is just a “stooge” for Dominic Cummings.

    In a series of interviews with Nadine Dorries, a former cabinet minister, for her new book, he accuses Sunak of failing to offer a positive vision for the country and says he has given voters “nothing to rally behind”.

    The former prime minister says that Sunak should be much more ambitious and that the government needs a “massive kick in the pants”, suggesting that the Tories should be cutting corporation tax. Sunak, he says, has failed to offer an agenda for change.

    Boris Johnson has warned that the Conservative Party is “drifting to defeat” under Rishi Sunak and said that the prime minister is just a “stooge” for Dominic Cummings.

    In a series of interviews with Nadine Dorries, a former cabinet minister, for her new book, he accuses Sunak of failing to offer a positive vision for the country and says he has given voters “nothing to rally behind”.

    The former prime minister says that Sunak should be much more ambitious and that the government needs a “massive kick in the pants”, suggesting that the Tories should be cutting corporation tax. Sunak, he says, has failed to offer an agenda for change.

    He also says that Sunak is a front for the interests of others, including Cummings, Johnson’s former special adviser, comparing Sunak with protagonist in The Manchurian Candidate — a film about a US presidential candidate who is secretly a communist sleeper agent.

    “I heard that Cummings has said he started to plot to get rid of me in January 2020,” Johnson says. “The plot was always to get Rishi in. I just couldn’t see it at the time. It’s like this Manchurian candidate, their stooge.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-rishi-sunak-nadine-dorries-book-vfwz87k76

    Better late than never, I suppose.
    This seems unlikely. If Dom is secretly pulling the strings in order to get his own candidate in place, it would presumably be in order to do, well, something. Surely no machiavellian genius would go to such lengths just for policies on pedicabs and vaping?
    The malevolence would be in character for Cummings.

    Successfully planning a complex operation to replace somebody else in three stages including a pandemic much less so.

    Not that it would stop him claiming credit for it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,755
    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Since I'm being totally off topic down rabbitholes this tea time (or dinner time if it is a hot meal), one for @Eabhal and maybe @Fairliered .

    There's a webinar being put on by Wheels for Wellbeing at 6pm this evening on influencing your Local Councillor about removing anti=wheelchair / anti-cycling barriers from footpaths and bridleways at 6 this evening:
    https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/wheels-for-wellbeing-x-hftf-training-tickets-727361236037

    Have a good evening all.

    Speaking as a pedestrian, I do not want cyclists on the footpath. Or horses.

    (Sunil or PtP might remember there used to be cattle roaming round Wanstead pre-foot and mouth.)
    Council officers are much happier to remove space from pedestrians than from motorists, hence the trend of converting paths to dual use, or reducing pavement width to incorporate cycle lanes.

    In Edinburgh this is despite a transport hierarchy, agreed by councillors, that puts pedestrians top and private car drivers last. Frustrating, and undermines local democracy.

    A good example of this is the use of the Union Canal towpath as a core cycle route. It's far too narrow, and many cyclists (including the CEO of my firm) end up in the canal itself dodging toddlers/dogs. Despite this, the council want to spend £XX million on a new fancy cycle bridge next to an aqueduct, rather than spending much less on just putting a decent segregated cycle lane on the adjacent road.
    A towpath is automatically a cycle way as it is legally a bridleway.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,100
    @LBC

    'Tory MPs have launched into a bitter round of in-fighting over Suella Braverman.'

    In an LBC exclusive, political editor @NatashaC tells @AndrewMarr9 that the PM could receive 'backlash' if he 'moved' Suella Braverman, as evidenced in leaked WhatsApp messages.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,955
    edited November 2023

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Since I'm being totally off topic down rabbitholes this tea time (or dinner time if it is a hot meal), one for @Eabhal and maybe @Fairliered .

    There's a webinar being put on by Wheels for Wellbeing at 6pm this evening on influencing your Local Councillor about removing anti=wheelchair / anti-cycling barriers from footpaths and bridleways at 6 this evening:
    https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/wheels-for-wellbeing-x-hftf-training-tickets-727361236037

    Have a good evening all.

    Speaking as a pedestrian, I do not want cyclists on the footpath. Or horses.

    (Sunil or PtP might remember there used to be cattle roaming round Wanstead pre-foot and mouth.)
    Council officers are much happier to remove space from pedestrians than from motorists, hence the trend of converting paths to dual use, or reducing pavement width to incorporate cycle lanes.

    In Edinburgh this is despite a transport hierarchy, agreed by councillors, that puts pedestrians top and private car drivers last. Frustrating, and undermines local democracy.

    An obvious example of this is the use of the Union Canal towpath as a core cycle route. It's far too narrow, and many cyclists (including the CEO of my firm) end up in the canal itself dodging toddlers/dogs. Despite this, the council want to spend £XX million on a new fancy cycle bridge next to an aqueduct, rather than spending much less on just putting a decent segregated cycle lane on the adjacent road.
    They should invest in building more new roads with dedicated segregated cycle lanes from the beginning.
    The West Approach Road (1974) would work brilliantly as an east-west link. Sadly, unlike the Dutch, they failed to include a cycle lane at the time.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,755

    rcs1000 said:

    An interesting article from the Atlantic:

    "Peace is impossible while Vladimir Putin denies Ukraine’s right to exist"

    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/peace-is-impossible-while-vladimir-putin-denies-ukraines-right-to-exist/

    Of course, the same thing can be said for another trouble spit: Peace is impossible while Hamas denies Israel's right to exist...

    I'm not sure Israel is completely sound on Hamas's right to exist after the 7th October outrages, which is where the parallel with Russia/Ukraine breaks down.
    Indeed, there are many members of Israel's governing coalition who (publicly) believe in the River to the Sea, only for the State of Israel, rather than the State of Palestine.
    Israel is a democracy, and in democracies people have all sorts of views.

    Its not the stated or public view of Israel in general or most Israelis even if a few extremists hold that view.
    It was actually the stated view of most of them when I was there.

    They just weren’t certain it could be achieved.

    A bit like Welsh independence.
  • The organiser of the sole Armistice Day event at the Cenotaph in central London has given his support for the pro-Palestine march in central London on Saturday.

    Richard Hughes, from the Western Front Association, a charity that holds a commemoration on 11 November for the casualties of the first world war, said his organisation believed in “freedom of speech”.

    “I think a lot of people are trying to whip this up,” said Hughes, the association’s legal trustee, who is also responsible for organising the annual commemoration. “The police are not going to let anyone near the Cenotaph. We are a democratic organisation that commemorates those who fought for democracy, so free speech is important.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/nov/08/organiser-of-armistice-day-event-at-cenotaph-hopes-pro-palestine-protest-can-go-ahead
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,975
    TimS said:

    Roger said:

    MattW said:

    Roger said:


    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    TimS said:

    Roger said:

    Don't know if it affects anyone but the French Senate have backed automatic visas for second home owners. So the roll back of Brexit has started. Hopefully it passes and is just the beginning of a dismantling which will be speeded up when we get a Labour government

    Interesting. Presumably still ones you have to apply and pay for?

    EDIT: looked it up and does indeed look good news https://www.connexionfrance.com/article/French-news/French-senate-backs-automatic-visa-right-for-UK-second-home-owners#

    Ideally that could help me avoid the increasingly frequent holdups at immigration (in other countries, the French never bother) while passport people count up my stamps.
    It should do that and improve the saleability of French properties. Many people I know who like to base themselves there will be delighted.
    The French authorities finally realising that border pedantry only harms their own economy, and that the British are are great source of money no longer worth pissing off just for the hell of it?
    More likely they felt they owed us after an enormous increase in 'Tax Habitation' charges now abolished for non second home owners
    Just been down that rabbithole on French property taxation.

    The idea that you are liable for Tax d'Habitation for the entire year because you had the right to occupy the property on January 1st is very ... French.
    https://www.french-property.com/guides/france/finance-taxation/taxation/local-property-taxes
    That's just a quirk. I suppose it's fair enough and it's not just to cripple the British as it also applies to the French. I don't know where you are in France but where i am there seems to be an influx of Americans Australians and Irish at the expense of the English. I've never known it as busy as it is now though. PS. Thanks for that link. Interesting
    Intriguingly, and for what reason I know not, Ireland this summer was packed to the rafters with French tourists. Easily the second, possibly the first nationality in terms of numbers.

    I can only speculate but the unbearable heat of recent summers in France and other parts of Western Europe might have had a bearing.
    That wouldn't explain why they're colonising the South. I think they're just getting richer. Even Bono's got a place just down the road!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,975

    Roger said:

    MattW said:

    Roger said:


    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    TimS said:

    Roger said:

    Don't know if it affects anyone but the French Senate have backed automatic visas for second home owners. So the roll back of Brexit has started. Hopefully it passes and is just the beginning of a dismantling which will be speeded up when we get a Labour government

    Interesting. Presumably still ones you have to apply and pay for?

    EDIT: looked it up and does indeed look good news https://www.connexionfrance.com/article/French-news/French-senate-backs-automatic-visa-right-for-UK-second-home-owners#

    Ideally that could help me avoid the increasingly frequent holdups at immigration (in other countries, the French never bother) while passport people count up my stamps.
    It should do that and improve the saleability of French properties. Many people I know who like to base themselves there will be delighted.
    The French authorities finally realising that border pedantry only harms their own economy, and that the British are are great source of money no longer worth pissing off just for the hell of it?
    More likely they felt they owed us after an enormous increase in 'Tax Habitation' charges now abolished for non second home owners
    Just been down that rabbithole on French property taxation.

    The idea that you are liable for Tax d'Habitation for the entire year because you had the right to occupy the property on January 1st is very ... French.
    https://www.french-property.com/guides/france/finance-taxation/taxation/local-property-taxes
    That's just a quirk. I suppose it's fair enough and it's not just to cripple the British as it also applies to the French. I don't know where you are in France but where i am there seems to be an influx of Americans Australians and Irish at the expense of the English. I've never known it as busy as it is now though. PS. Thanks for that link. Interesting
    There goes the Riviera?

    Inevitable of course once they start letting the Irish in!
    I'm more worried about the Americans. At least the Irish didn't bring their cuisine
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989
    isam said:

    stodge said:

    isam said:

    stodge said:

    isam said:

    If Johnson were still PM though some of the people queuing up to tell the country the truth about what a blustering, pig-ignorant, malignant sack of pus and lies the man is would still be surgically inserting themselves as far up his arse as they possibly could, as they did before. Nothing loosens the lips quite like seeing the subject of your criticism fall from power. It is not Johnson but his enablers who deserve the full measure of our scorn.

    "it is not Johnson but his enablers who deserve the full measure of our scorn"

    Is that the people who tried to stop the referendum result being implemented? They're the only reason he ever became PM
    No, he became leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister because, in the summer of 2019, polling showed he was the only one of the Conservative leadership contenders capable of winning an election and stopping votes going to Farage's Brexit Party.

    There was some ComRes polling in June 2019 which showed that and from then on his ascent to No.10 was inevitable. Once in office, and you're quite right, the more the opposition tried to frustrate the implementation of Brexit, the higher the Conservative poll rating went.
    Theresa May agreed a deal with the EU that parliament, the majority of whom were Remain inclined, refused to votre through; it should have been a walkover- we had voted to Leave, the PM had cut a deal, thats it - but they thought they had a chance at another referendum, so risked unleashing their worst nightmare (Boris and No Deal) rather than do the decent thing
    Again, that's not why Boris became PM as far as the Conservatives were concerned. They were facing an existential crisis - a potential flood of votes to the Brexit Party which had won the European Parliementary elections (Conservatives on just 9%). If the alternative to schism and obscurity was Boris, it was always going to be Boris.

    It was never going to be Hunt or Javid who would oversee the split of the centre-right.
    Try to understand that had May’s deal passed the commons, he’d never have been PM
    Yes and if the 118 Conservative MPs who voted against the Deal on January 15th 2019 it would have carried then and there by six votes.

    With the Deal passed and Brexit occurring would May have gone for another GE? Probably not so she leads us into the pandemic which I think she'd have handled very differently from Boris.

    Nonetheless, would she have won a 2022 GE - a round two against Corbyn? I'm not so sure.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,078
    Roger said:

    TimS said:

    Roger said:

    MattW said:

    Roger said:


    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    TimS said:

    Roger said:

    Don't know if it affects anyone but the French Senate have backed automatic visas for second home owners. So the roll back of Brexit has started. Hopefully it passes and is just the beginning of a dismantling which will be speeded up when we get a Labour government

    Interesting. Presumably still ones you have to apply and pay for?

    EDIT: looked it up and does indeed look good news https://www.connexionfrance.com/article/French-news/French-senate-backs-automatic-visa-right-for-UK-second-home-owners#

    Ideally that could help me avoid the increasingly frequent holdups at immigration (in other countries, the French never bother) while passport people count up my stamps.
    It should do that and improve the saleability of French properties. Many people I know who like to base themselves there will be delighted.
    The French authorities finally realising that border pedantry only harms their own economy, and that the British are are great source of money no longer worth pissing off just for the hell of it?
    More likely they felt they owed us after an enormous increase in 'Tax Habitation' charges now abolished for non second home owners
    Just been down that rabbithole on French property taxation.

    The idea that you are liable for Tax d'Habitation for the entire year because you had the right to occupy the property on January 1st is very ... French.
    https://www.french-property.com/guides/france/finance-taxation/taxation/local-property-taxes
    That's just a quirk. I suppose it's fair enough and it's not just to cripple the British as it also applies to the French. I don't know where you are in France but where i am there seems to be an influx of Americans Australians and Irish at the expense of the English. I've never known it as busy as it is now though. PS. Thanks for that link. Interesting
    Intriguingly, and for what reason I know not, Ireland this summer was packed to the rafters with French tourists. Easily the second, possibly the first nationality in terms of numbers.

    I can only speculate but the unbearable heat of recent summers in France and other parts of Western Europe might have had a bearing.
    That wouldn't explain why they're colonising the South. I think they're just getting richer. Even Bono's got a place just down the road!
    Do you mean the South of England? Surely the same logic would apply? The South of England being less warm, in general, than France.
  • MattW said:

    Since I'm being totally off topic down rabbitholes this tea time (or dinner time if it is a hot meal), one for @Eabhal and maybe @Fairliered .

    There's a webinar being put on by Wheels for Wellbeing at 6pm this evening on influencing your Local Councillor about removing anti=wheelchair / anti-cycling barriers from footpaths and bridleways at 6 this evening:
    https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/wheels-for-wellbeing-x-hftf-training-tickets-727361236037

    Have a good evening all.

    Speaking as a pedestrian, I do not want cyclists on the footpath. Or horses.

    (Sunil or PtP might remember there used to be cattle roaming round Wanstead pre-foot and mouth.)
    Three years ago, they tried re-introducing a rare breed of cattle in Wanstead Park, but they were taken away after just a few days due to them being attacked by miscreants. But they did come back in 2021, at least for a few months. And again this year!

    https://www.thisislocallondon.co.uk/news/23893120.cows-make-return-wanstead-park-ted-howden-chalmers-bancrofts/
  • Barnesian said:

    stodge said:

    TimS said:

    slade said:

    A mixed bag of local by-elections tomorrow. There is one for Mayor of Hackney - should be a safe Lab hold but watch out for the Green vote. Lab also have a defence in Lewisham. We have a double defence in Powys for independents elected as Lib Dems. There is also a Ind defence in South Holland and Con defences in Lincolnshire and South Kesteven.

    The Lewisham defence is Deptford ward. 3 councillors elected in May last year, all Labour. But the greens are quite a strong second. Pretty much a one and a half horse race but wouldn’t rule out a green gain.

    Lewisham council is one of those examples of the madness of FPTP. 50 councillors out of 50 are from one party. That’s not representative or healthy.
    There's a very strong argument for introducing some form of PR for local elections.
    STV in three member wards would work.
    Would work in what way? If one party is taking all of the seats in FPTP elections then they are most likely a shoe-in to dominate the council and grab all the committees under any form of PR. It is possible to imagine different corner case scenarios but in the real world?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,012
    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Since I'm being totally off topic down rabbitholes this tea time (or dinner time if it is a hot meal), one for @Eabhal and maybe @Fairliered .

    There's a webinar being put on by Wheels for Wellbeing at 6pm this evening on influencing your Local Councillor about removing anti=wheelchair / anti-cycling barriers from footpaths and bridleways at 6 this evening:
    https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/wheels-for-wellbeing-x-hftf-training-tickets-727361236037

    Have a good evening all.

    Speaking as a pedestrian, I do not want cyclists on the footpath. Or horses.

    (Sunil or PtP might remember there used to be cattle roaming round Wanstead pre-foot and mouth.)
    Council officers are much happier to remove space from pedestrians than from motorists, hence the trend of converting paths to dual use, or reducing pavement width to incorporate cycle lanes.

    In Edinburgh this is despite a transport hierarchy, agreed by councillors, that puts pedestrians top and private car drivers last. Frustrating, and undermines local democracy.

    An good example of this is the use of the Union Canal towpath as a core cycle route. It's far too narrow, and many cyclists (including the CEO of my firm) end up in the canal itself dodging toddlers/dogs. Despite this, the council want to spend £XX million on a new fancy cycle bridge next to an aqueduct, rather than spending much less on just putting a decent segregated cycle lane on the adjacent road.
    This was launched the other week https://dutchcyclinglifestyle.com/ - lets you put in an address and uses 'AI' to reimagine it as a pedestrian/cyclist favoured space. Bit hit'n'miss - but hopefully it'll improve.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,100
    @SophyRidgeSky

    The Conservative Parliamentary Party is dancing to Suella’s tune. She’s setting the music – she’s in control of the playlist.
    And that means Conservative MPs constantly having to respond to the latest track Suella’s chosen… whether they like it or not



    Inaction Man is Ken to Cruella's Barbie... Quietly Incompetent doesn't fully capture it.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,012
    stodge said:

    isam said:

    stodge said:

    isam said:

    stodge said:

    isam said:

    If Johnson were still PM though some of the people queuing up to tell the country the truth about what a blustering, pig-ignorant, malignant sack of pus and lies the man is would still be surgically inserting themselves as far up his arse as they possibly could, as they did before. Nothing loosens the lips quite like seeing the subject of your criticism fall from power. It is not Johnson but his enablers who deserve the full measure of our scorn.

    "it is not Johnson but his enablers who deserve the full measure of our scorn"

    Is that the people who tried to stop the referendum result being implemented? They're the only reason he ever became PM
    No, he became leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister because, in the summer of 2019, polling showed he was the only one of the Conservative leadership contenders capable of winning an election and stopping votes going to Farage's Brexit Party.

    There was some ComRes polling in June 2019 which showed that and from then on his ascent to No.10 was inevitable. Once in office, and you're quite right, the more the opposition tried to frustrate the implementation of Brexit, the higher the Conservative poll rating went.
    Theresa May agreed a deal with the EU that parliament, the majority of whom were Remain inclined, refused to votre through; it should have been a walkover- we had voted to Leave, the PM had cut a deal, thats it - but they thought they had a chance at another referendum, so risked unleashing their worst nightmare (Boris and No Deal) rather than do the decent thing
    Again, that's not why Boris became PM as far as the Conservatives were concerned. They were facing an existential crisis - a potential flood of votes to the Brexit Party which had won the European Parliementary elections (Conservatives on just 9%). If the alternative to schism and obscurity was Boris, it was always going to be Boris.

    It was never going to be Hunt or Javid who would oversee the split of the centre-right.
    Try to understand that had May’s deal passed the commons, he’d never have been PM
    Yes and if the 118 Conservative MPs who voted against the Deal on January 15th 2019 it would have carried then and there by six votes.

    With the Deal passed and Brexit occurring would May have gone for another GE? Probably not so she leads us into the pandemic which I think she'd have handled very differently from Boris.

    Nonetheless, would she have won a 2022 GE - a round two against Corbyn? I'm not so sure.
    I think Corbyn would have been under a lot more scrutiny re.Vaccines etc than he was as an outsider. Might have proved trickier given the press & public mood. "Heroic diabetic PM vs. fringe 5G Corbyn" would be a hard sell.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214
    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    TimS said:

    Roger said:

    MattW said:

    Roger said:


    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    TimS said:

    Roger said:

    Don't know if it affects anyone but the French Senate have backed automatic visas for second home owners. So the roll back of Brexit has started. Hopefully it passes and is just the beginning of a dismantling which will be speeded up when we get a Labour government

    Interesting. Presumably still ones you have to apply and pay for?

    EDIT: looked it up and does indeed look good news https://www.connexionfrance.com/article/French-news/French-senate-backs-automatic-visa-right-for-UK-second-home-owners#

    Ideally that could help me avoid the increasingly frequent holdups at immigration (in other countries, the French never bother) while passport people count up my stamps.
    It should do that and improve the saleability of French properties. Many people I know who like to base themselves there will be delighted.
    The French authorities finally realising that border pedantry only harms their own economy, and that the British are are great source of money no longer worth pissing off just for the hell of it?
    More likely they felt they owed us after an enormous increase in 'Tax Habitation' charges now abolished for non second home owners
    Just been down that rabbithole on French property taxation.

    The idea that you are liable for Tax d'Habitation for the entire year because you had the right to occupy the property on January 1st is very ... French.
    https://www.french-property.com/guides/france/finance-taxation/taxation/local-property-taxes
    That's just a quirk. I suppose it's fair enough and it's not just to cripple the British as it also applies to the French. I don't know where you are in France but where i am there seems to be an influx of Americans Australians and Irish at the expense of the English. I've never known it as busy as it is now though. PS. Thanks for that link. Interesting
    Intriguingly, and for what reason I know not, Ireland this summer was packed to the rafters with French tourists. Easily the second, possibly the first nationality in terms of numbers.

    I can only speculate but the unbearable heat of recent summers in France and other parts of Western Europe might have had a bearing.
    That wouldn't explain why they're colonising the South. I think they're just getting richer. Even Bono's got a place just down the road!
    Do you mean the South of England? Surely the same logic would apply? The South of England being less warm, in general, than France.
    He means the South of France, but anyway I wasn’t attempting to explain that. I was noting an interesting reverse flow. Perhaps everyone’s been doing house swaps.

    But it was seriously packed with French in Ireland. We had a French family (friends of friends) to stay here in London as they were visiting Harry Potter studios, and straight after London they were heading on the train to Fishguard and the ferry to Rosslare.

    We then visited some friends in county Waterford. Everywhere around there was full of French tourists. Kilkenny, the coast, Waterford itself, Dublin too.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    MattW said:

    Roger said:


    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    TimS said:

    Roger said:

    Don't know if it affects anyone but the French Senate have backed automatic visas for second home owners. So the roll back of Brexit has started. Hopefully it passes and is just the beginning of a dismantling which will be speeded up when we get a Labour government

    Interesting. Presumably still ones you have to apply and pay for?

    EDIT: looked it up and does indeed look good news https://www.connexionfrance.com/article/French-news/French-senate-backs-automatic-visa-right-for-UK-second-home-owners#

    Ideally that could help me avoid the increasingly frequent holdups at immigration (in other countries, the French never bother) while passport people count up my stamps.
    It should do that and improve the saleability of French properties. Many people I know who like to base themselves there will be delighted.
    The French authorities finally realising that border pedantry only harms their own economy, and that the British are are great source of money no longer worth pissing off just for the hell of it?
    More likely they felt they owed us after an enormous increase in 'Tax Habitation' charges now abolished for non second home owners
    Just been down that rabbithole on French property taxation.

    The idea that you are liable for Tax d'Habitation for the entire year because you had the right to occupy the property on January 1st is very ... French.
    https://www.french-property.com/guides/france/finance-taxation/taxation/local-property-taxes
    That's just a quirk. I suppose it's fair enough and it's not just to cripple the British as it also applies to the French. I don't know where you are in France but where i am there seems to be an influx of Americans Australians and Irish at the expense of the English. I've never known it as busy as it is now though. PS. Thanks for that link. Interesting
    There goes the Riviera?

    Inevitable of course once they start letting the Irish in!
    I'm more worried about the Americans. At least the Irish didn't bring their cuisine
    Around our little place in Burgundy the second homeowners are mainly Lyonnais, Parisians, Swiss and a smattering of Brits and Benelux. No Americans except one or two wine trade types. Not come across Irish either. I think the lack of close airport explains that. It’s a driving destination. LYS is over an hour away and GVA 2 hours.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,195
    Good evening all!

    Poppy watch: on the Liz Line this evening, only 2 passengers with poppies - a twenty something Muslim couple.

    Lots of people having an after work pint around Spitalfields. These buggers must be getting paid too much.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,915
    edited November 2023

    nico679 said:

    The Dems are banking on Trump being the nominee . I think it’s highly unlikely he will ever get convicted as it’s hard to find a jury that could return a unanimous verdict but if a miracle happens and he does then Dem plans are in trouble .

    If Trump falls my view is Halley will be the GOP candidate and she will win.
    If Trump fails to get the GOP nomination he will run as an Independent, even if convicted and jailed and without Trump voters voting GOP the GOP candidate will find it virtually impossible to win
  • Election Tampering Right Now in WA State

    Washington State Political Watch - As 12pm Spokane, King and Pierce Counties Election departments have been forced to evacuate.

    SSI - can confirm this for King County, where late this morning an election worker opened an envelope (NOT a returned ballot outer envelope) that contained some kind of white powder.

    King Co Election offices were evacuated, now awaiting HAZMAT team to deal with situation.

    Which can be monitored, for KCE, via their webcams

    https://kingcounty.gov/en/legacy/depts/elections/about-us/security-and-accountability/watch-us-in-action.aspx

    Personally first got wind of King evacuation, when I looked on webcams, and saw flashing lights - and no people. Lights have stopped flashing - but still no workers.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214
    edited November 2023
    It does seem Suella is lining herself up for post election leadership. If so, and she’s successful, then the Tories are shafted. Or Britain is shafted.

    She’s 10:1 in a couple of places. Badenoch still favourite at 7:2. Cleverly up there and he’s still my pick.

    None of those particularly tempting odds to be honest.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,195
    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Since I'm being totally off topic down rabbitholes this tea time (or dinner time if it is a hot meal), one for @Eabhal and maybe @Fairliered .

    There's a webinar being put on by Wheels for Wellbeing at 6pm this evening on influencing your Local Councillor about removing anti=wheelchair / anti-cycling barriers from footpaths and bridleways at 6 this evening:
    https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/wheels-for-wellbeing-x-hftf-training-tickets-727361236037

    Have a good evening all.

    Speaking as a pedestrian, I do not want cyclists on the footpath. Or horses.

    (Sunil or PtP might remember there used to be cattle roaming round Wanstead pre-foot and mouth.)
    Council officers are much happier to remove space from pedestrians than from motorists, hence the trend of converting paths to dual use, or reducing pavement width to incorporate cycle lanes.

    In Edinburgh this is despite a transport hierarchy, agreed by councillors, that puts pedestrians top and private car drivers last. Frustrating, and undermines local democracy.

    A good example of this is the use of the Union Canal towpath as a core cycle route. It's far too narrow, and many cyclists (including the CEO of my firm) end up in the canal itself dodging toddlers/dogs. Despite this, the council want to spend £XX million on a new fancy cycle bridge next to an aqueduct, rather than spending much less on just putting a decent segregated cycle lane on the adjacent road.
    A towpath is automatically a cycle way as it is legally a bridleway.
    Pedestrians have priority on towpaths.

    Unfortunately, this doesn't stop some cyclists acting like total twats.

    If they end up in the drink, tough.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,363
    edited November 2023

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Since I'm being totally off topic down rabbitholes this tea time (or dinner time if it is a hot meal), one for @Eabhal and maybe @Fairliered .

    There's a webinar being put on by Wheels for Wellbeing at 6pm this evening on influencing your Local Councillor about removing anti=wheelchair / anti-cycling barriers from footpaths and bridleways at 6 this evening:
    https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/wheels-for-wellbeing-x-hftf-training-tickets-727361236037

    Have a good evening all.

    Speaking as a pedestrian, I do not want cyclists on the footpath. Or horses.

    (Sunil or PtP might remember there used to be cattle roaming round Wanstead pre-foot and mouth.)
    Council officers are much happier to remove space from pedestrians than from motorists, hence the trend of converting paths to dual use, or reducing pavement width to incorporate cycle lanes.

    In Edinburgh this is despite a transport hierarchy, agreed by councillors, that puts pedestrians top and private car drivers last. Frustrating, and undermines local democracy.

    A good example of this is the use of the Union Canal towpath as a core cycle route. It's far too narrow, and many cyclists (including the CEO of my firm) end up in the canal itself dodging toddlers/dogs. Despite this, the council want to spend £XX million on a new fancy cycle bridge next to an aqueduct, rather than spending much less on just putting a decent segregated cycle lane on the adjacent road.
    A towpath is automatically a cycle way as it is legally a bridleway.
    Pedestrians have priority on towpaths.

    Unfortunately, this doesn't stop some cyclists acting like total twats.

    If they end up in the drink, tough.
    Walking along the Union Canal is a pleasure much damaged by cyclists. Like some lycra lout pissing in your coffee, basically.

    Edit: not *all* lycra-clad bicyclists behave like that, though, by any means.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,755

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Since I'm being totally off topic down rabbitholes this tea time (or dinner time if it is a hot meal), one for @Eabhal and maybe @Fairliered .

    There's a webinar being put on by Wheels for Wellbeing at 6pm this evening on influencing your Local Councillor about removing anti=wheelchair / anti-cycling barriers from footpaths and bridleways at 6 this evening:
    https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/wheels-for-wellbeing-x-hftf-training-tickets-727361236037

    Have a good evening all.

    Speaking as a pedestrian, I do not want cyclists on the footpath. Or horses.

    (Sunil or PtP might remember there used to be cattle roaming round Wanstead pre-foot and mouth.)
    Council officers are much happier to remove space from pedestrians than from motorists, hence the trend of converting paths to dual use, or reducing pavement width to incorporate cycle lanes.

    In Edinburgh this is despite a transport hierarchy, agreed by councillors, that puts pedestrians top and private car drivers last. Frustrating, and undermines local democracy.

    A good example of this is the use of the Union Canal towpath as a core cycle route. It's far too narrow, and many cyclists (including the CEO of my firm) end up in the canal itself dodging toddlers/dogs. Despite this, the council want to spend £XX million on a new fancy cycle bridge next to an aqueduct, rather than spending much less on just putting a decent segregated cycle lane on the adjacent road.
    A towpath is automatically a cycle way as it is legally a bridleway.
    Pedestrians have priority on towpaths.

    Unfortunately, this doesn't stop some cyclists acting like total twats.

    If they end up in the drink, tough.
    Pedestrians always have priority, including on roads, over vehicles.

    I’m not sure what your point is.
  • Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Since I'm being totally off topic down rabbitholes this tea time (or dinner time if it is a hot meal), one for @Eabhal and maybe @Fairliered .

    There's a webinar being put on by Wheels for Wellbeing at 6pm this evening on influencing your Local Councillor about removing anti=wheelchair / anti-cycling barriers from footpaths and bridleways at 6 this evening:
    https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/wheels-for-wellbeing-x-hftf-training-tickets-727361236037

    Have a good evening all.

    Speaking as a pedestrian, I do not want cyclists on the footpath. Or horses.

    (Sunil or PtP might remember there used to be cattle roaming round Wanstead pre-foot and mouth.)
    Council officers are much happier to remove space from pedestrians than from motorists, hence the trend of converting paths to dual use, or reducing pavement width to incorporate cycle lanes.

    In Edinburgh this is despite a transport hierarchy, agreed by councillors, that puts pedestrians top and private car drivers last. Frustrating, and undermines local democracy.

    An obvious example of this is the use of the Union Canal towpath as a core cycle route. It's far too narrow, and many cyclists (including the CEO of my firm) end up in the canal itself dodging toddlers/dogs. Despite this, the council want to spend £XX million on a new fancy cycle bridge next to an aqueduct, rather than spending much less on just putting a decent segregated cycle lane on the adjacent road.
    They should invest in building more new roads with dedicated segregated cycle lanes from the beginning.
    The West Approach Road (1974) would work brilliantly as an east-west link. Sadly, unlike the Dutch, they failed to include a cycle lane at the time.
    Its also half a century old, not new.

    Build a brand new road (2025) with a cycle lane from the beginning, no need to repeat the mistakes of a past.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,848
    Nadine Dorries' allegations of a 'mafia' at the heart of the Tories are fascinating and ring sonorously true:

    "...Express.co.uk has learnt that Truss had a fateful meeting with Gove a week before the party conference last year.

    A source claimed: “Gove spent 45 minutes with her one to one the week before Conference. He pledged his support in return for us giving his ‘boys’ jobs.

    “Next Sunday he launched the wave of attacks at Conference that crippled us.”

    In both coups the control of MPs was essential..."
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1831510/nadine-dorries-book-tory-mafia-boris-johnson

    It really is quite incendiary. It's a deliberate plot to undermine and neuter conservative politics in the Tory Party, and by extension the UK. Dougie Smith and the rest of his deeply unattractive cabal should be removed pending a full investigation.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,195
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Since I'm being totally off topic down rabbitholes this tea time (or dinner time if it is a hot meal), one for @Eabhal and maybe @Fairliered .

    There's a webinar being put on by Wheels for Wellbeing at 6pm this evening on influencing your Local Councillor about removing anti=wheelchair / anti-cycling barriers from footpaths and bridleways at 6 this evening:
    https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/wheels-for-wellbeing-x-hftf-training-tickets-727361236037

    Have a good evening all.

    Speaking as a pedestrian, I do not want cyclists on the footpath. Or horses.

    (Sunil or PtP might remember there used to be cattle roaming round Wanstead pre-foot and mouth.)
    Council officers are much happier to remove space from pedestrians than from motorists, hence the trend of converting paths to dual use, or reducing pavement width to incorporate cycle lanes.

    In Edinburgh this is despite a transport hierarchy, agreed by councillors, that puts pedestrians top and private car drivers last. Frustrating, and undermines local democracy.

    A good example of this is the use of the Union Canal towpath as a core cycle route. It's far too narrow, and many cyclists (including the CEO of my firm) end up in the canal itself dodging toddlers/dogs. Despite this, the council want to spend £XX million on a new fancy cycle bridge next to an aqueduct, rather than spending much less on just putting a decent segregated cycle lane on the adjacent road.
    A towpath is automatically a cycle way as it is legally a bridleway.
    Pedestrians have priority on towpaths.

    Unfortunately, this doesn't stop some cyclists acting like total twats.

    If they end up in the drink, tough.
    Pedestrians always have priority, including on roads, over vehicles.

    I’m not sure what your point is.
    My point is that some cyclists think that pedestrians are obliged to leap out of the way when they charge down the towpath.
  • Good evening all!

    Poppy watch: on the Liz Line this evening, only 2 passengers with poppies - a twenty something Muslim couple.

    Lots of people having an after work pint around Spitalfields. These buggers must be getting paid too much.

    What are you doing in Londonistan??
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,069
    TimS said:

    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    TimS said:

    Roger said:

    MattW said:

    Roger said:


    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    TimS said:

    Roger said:

    Don't know if it affects anyone but the French Senate have backed automatic visas for second home owners. So the roll back of Brexit has started. Hopefully it passes and is just the beginning of a dismantling which will be speeded up when we get a Labour government

    Interesting. Presumably still ones you have to apply and pay for?

    EDIT: looked it up and does indeed look good news https://www.connexionfrance.com/article/French-news/French-senate-backs-automatic-visa-right-for-UK-second-home-owners#

    Ideally that could help me avoid the increasingly frequent holdups at immigration (in other countries, the French never bother) while passport people count up my stamps.
    It should do that and improve the saleability of French properties. Many people I know who like to base themselves there will be delighted.
    The French authorities finally realising that border pedantry only harms their own economy, and that the British are are great source of money no longer worth pissing off just for the hell of it?
    More likely they felt they owed us after an enormous increase in 'Tax Habitation' charges now abolished for non second home owners
    Just been down that rabbithole on French property taxation.

    The idea that you are liable for Tax d'Habitation for the entire year because you had the right to occupy the property on January 1st is very ... French.
    https://www.french-property.com/guides/france/finance-taxation/taxation/local-property-taxes
    That's just a quirk. I suppose it's fair enough and it's not just to cripple the British as it also applies to the French. I don't know where you are in France but where i am there seems to be an influx of Americans Australians and Irish at the expense of the English. I've never known it as busy as it is now though. PS. Thanks for that link. Interesting
    Intriguingly, and for what reason I know not, Ireland this summer was packed to the rafters with French tourists. Easily the second, possibly the first nationality in terms of numbers.

    I can only speculate but the unbearable heat of recent summers in France and other parts of Western Europe might have had a bearing.
    That wouldn't explain why they're colonising the South. I think they're just getting richer. Even Bono's got a place just down the road!
    Do you mean the South of England? Surely the same logic would apply? The South of England being less warm, in general, than France.
    He means the South of France, but anyway I wasn’t attempting to explain that. I was noting an interesting reverse flow. Perhaps everyone’s been doing house swaps.

    But it was seriously packed with French in Ireland. We had a French family (friends of friends) to stay here in London as they were visiting Harry Potter studios, and straight after London they were heading on the train to Fishguard and the ferry to Rosslare.

    We then visited some friends in county Waterford. Everywhere around there was full of French tourists. Kilkenny, the coast, Waterford itself, Dublin too.
    Want to practice their English but don't want the hassle of going through Brexit immigration controls? Plus I hear Ireland is quite nice. "I'd love to go" (C) Alan Partridge
  • Seattle Times ($) - King County Elections office evacuated over white powder

    The King County Elections office in Renton has been evacuated after receiving a piece of mail containing a white powder.

    Halei Watkins, communications manager for the agency that oversees elections in the county, said staffers opened a piece of mail that contained an unknown white powder late Wednesday morning. Watkins said no staffers appeared to become ill, but hazmat crews and law enforcement have cleared the office.

    The piece of mail, which was not a ballot, has disrupted counting in the November general election. It was unknown as of noon Wednesday if or when the office would be able to resume counting ballots. More results had been scheduled to be posted at 4 p.m.

    This is a developing story and will be updated.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,636
    Interesting story:


  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,195

    Nadine Dorries' allegations of a 'mafia' at the heart of the Tories are fascinating and ring sonorously true:

    "...Express.co.uk has learnt that Truss had a fateful meeting with Gove a week before the party conference last year.

    A source claimed: “Gove spent 45 minutes with her one to one the week before Conference. He pledged his support in return for us giving his ‘boys’ jobs.

    “Next Sunday he launched the wave of attacks at Conference that crippled us.”

    In both coups the control of MPs was essential..."
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1831510/nadine-dorries-book-tory-mafia-boris-johnson

    It really is quite incendiary. It's a deliberate plot to undermine and neuter conservative politics in the Tory Party, and by extension the UK. Dougie Smith and the rest of his deeply unattractive cabal should be removed pending a full investigation.

    "Gove spent 45 minutes with her one on one"

    I didn't think she was his type.
This discussion has been closed.