If Boris was still PM the Conservatives would at least be polling over 30% and Reform would not be polling the 5-10% they are on (if anything RefUK voters think Boris was too strict on lockdowns so would welcome the fact it seems he was more reticent on that after all).
Labour would also not be polling as high as it is now in the redwall, albeit the LDs might be doing a bit better again in the bluewall
Nope. If we was "still PM" the government would be in crisis after all these revelations. Anyway its a pointless hypothesis because even if he hadn't have been removed when he was, it would just have happened a bit later. Rishi would have struck and the chancellor going would have been terminal whatever. Thank goodness Sunak did what had to be done.
No, if anything these revelations might actually win back some voters the Tories have lost to RefUK, most of whom were fiercely anti lockdown anyway.
On present polling the Tories are polling about 5% less under Sunak on average than the Conservatives were in the week before Boris resigned last summer. Under Truss in her last week as PM the Conservatives were polling about 10% worse than they were when Boris resigned. Sunak is only an improvement on Truss electorally not Boris, even if arguably a more competent PM than both
I wonder if there will ever be another Boris Johnson? - a Tory who wins the London Mayoralty twice, the first when he began as rank outsider, wins a referendum vs the establishment who were 1/4f, then a landslide at a GE, yet still have all his opponents refusing to admit he was really a threat, and kidding themselves they only wanted rid of him because he was a liability, rather than the bloke who kept beating them every time
But that's not true. There's lots of us lefties, like me, who readily admit that Boris was a threat and a formidable electoral machine who was very hard to beat. We may have been baffled by his huge appeal, but we never denied it.
And yes, we wanted rid of him because he was a winner. But we failed - it wasn't us who got rid of him. It was his own party, with ample help from Boris himself.
Actually I think there aren’t many like you who do admit it. Not on here anyway
I wonder if there will ever be another Boris Johnson? - a Tory who wins the London Mayoralty twice, the first when he began as rank outsider, wins a referendum vs the establishment who were 1/4f, then a landslide at a GE, yet still have all his opponents refusing to admit he was really a threat, and kidding themselves they only wanted rid of him because he was a liability, rather than the bloke who kept beating them every time
I wanted rid of him because he was a grifting liar who demeaned every office he ever held and who wasn't very good at running things, but who was also a threat because he appealed to a lot of people whose political priority was seeing people they dislike annoyed. It was a potent and dangerous combination that caused immense harm to the country.
I wonder if there will ever be another Boris Johnson? - a Tory who wins the London Mayoralty twice, the first when he began as rank outsider, wins a referendum vs the establishment who were 1/4f, then a landslide at a GE, yet still have all his opponents refusing to admit he was really a threat, and kidding themselves they only wanted rid of him because he was a liability, rather than the bloke who kept beating them every time
But that's not true. There's lots of us lefties, like me, who readily admit that Boris was a threat and a formidable electoral machine who was very hard to beat. We may have been baffled by his huge appeal, but we never denied it.
And yes, we wanted rid of him because he was a winner. But we failed - it wasn't us who got rid of him. It was his own party, with ample help from Boris himself.
Yes it’s rather a reductive argument that Boris was either a permanent electoral threat or a liability from the start. Like Thatcher, and then Blair, he started off as a potent vote winner then soiled the bed and lost popularity. His approval ratings before stepping down were horrendous (they weren’t great before either but he was up against Corbyn whose were worse).
'It appears that Elaine Cottam genuinely didn’t know what a witness statement was, nor had she worked out what it might be by the end of her inquiry session.
Beer’s questioning concluded shortly thereafter. He had, without being derailed, successfully demonstrated that Fujitsu had kept a serious software problem from a Subpostmaster who then lost money and subsequently her livelihood as a result of the callous ineptitude of Elaine Cottam and her colleagues at the Post Office. Having achieved this, it seems someone at the Post Office went on to produce a misleading witness statement supposedly authored by someone without the capacity or capability of being responsible for it.'
"When asked about this sentence, Cottam said she didn’t remember asking for any call logs, didn’t remember receiving them and didn’t know why she needed them, because she wouldn’t understand them. She seemed utterly mystified at the idea she might be able to offer any analysis of them, and with the air of someone looking at hieroglyphics on a piece of wood, told the Inquiry:"
That would be funny were this not so serious. This piece of work repeatedly tried to insinuate dishonesty by the husband of the SPM on no basis whatsoever despite being repeatedly challenged by the KC referring to it as the "suspicion without proof issue raising its head again?”
Ropes and lampposts are too good for these people.
Cottam has also thrown the lawyer under the bus here. This lawyer has given evidence already but will likely need to be recalled because it appears that she wrote the witness statement and/or coached the witness in a way which should get her struck off. Though my guess is that the SRA will prove even more ineffectual than the Met at nailing any of these bastards.
"The world is full of thick-as-mince, malevolent incompetents like Elaine Cottam. The problems start when they are promoted into positions of power, as the Post Office appears to have done with multiple idiots on multiple occasions. I really hope the Met Police are taking note."
The Post Office managers, and the professional people who work for them, actually seem to be even more stupid, dishonest, incompetent, and malevolent, than the Conservative Parliamentary Party (and the Labour equivalent from 2007-10). They're on a par with Doncaster Council in the 1990's, and Rotherham Council in the 00's.
I hope a lot of them get done for perjury and perverting the course of justice.
I wonder if there will ever be another Boris Johnson? - a Tory who wins the London Mayoralty twice, the first when he began as rank outsider, wins a referendum vs the establishment who were 1/4f, then a landslide at a GE, yet still have all his opponents refusing to admit he was really a threat, and kidding themselves they only wanted rid of him because he was a liability, rather than the bloke who kept beating them every time
I wanted rid of him because he was a grifting liar who demeaned every office he ever held and who wasn't very good at running things, but who was also a threat because he appealed to a lot of people whose political priority was seeing people they dislike annoyed. It was a potent and dangerous combination that caused immense harm to the country.
“he appealed to a lot of people whose political priority was seeing people they dislike annoyed”
If Boris was still PM the Conservatives would at least be polling over 30% and Reform would not be polling the 5-10% they are on (if anything RefUK voters think Boris was too strict on lockdowns so would welcome the fact it seems he was more reticent on that after all).
Labour would also not be polling as high as it is now in the redwall, albeit the LDs might be doing a bit better again in the bluewall
If only your omniscience of what would have been could be converted into omniscience of what will be, you could make a fortune out of political betting!
One seer on PB was predicting, as early returns began coming in, that Republicans were likely to capture Kentucky Governor's mansion because Republicans were the national opposition party save for controlling (in some limited, twisted sense anyway) US House.
Did NOT turn out that way when the votes were counted.
Of course, anyone who'd actually bothered to follow this race would have know that there were LOCAL factors at play. Or understood that in USA state executive races do NOT always mirror trends in presidential, congressional or legislative voting.
For example, election of Mitt Romney, Charlie Baker and other Republicans in otherwise Blue States.
AND the re-election of Democratic incumbent Andy Beshear in Kentucky yesterday.
What takes this off the front page in the near future? What potential news event? Short of a real black swan I think there are a few options to mull over:
- A financial crisis (US bonds have been very volatile, maybe a sudden stockmarket rout) - A huge natural disaster - but it would have to be truly huge, and probably close to home. Floods in Somerset or a bad earthquake in Mexico wouldn't be enough. Campi Phlaegri erupting perhaps - A Tory leadership bid with letters going into the 1922. - A snap general election - Trump going to jail - A surprise death: Trump (again), Biden, Putin, Zelenskyy - A horrific UK crime e.g. child abduction or mass shooting - Major breakthrough for either side in the Ukraine war
Otherwise I think we're stuck with Israel-Hamas and its allied topics (pro-Palestine protests, Labour resignations, antisemitism) for a couple of weeks at least.
Heavy Ukraine weaponry is moving over to the left bank of the Dnipro. If you want a "surprise" scenerio, then all parties having worked together to secretly deliver F-16s to Ukraine to support a winter offensive towards Crimea would be a good one.
I don't quite get what Russia is up to in allowing this, unless it's all a bit Admiral Akbar (though of course it should be noted that yes, it was a trap but the trap failed to close around its target).
Russian civil unrest leading to revolution is not out of the question though. It seems more likely to me that if there is a definitive outcome to the Ukraine War, it will be decided on the home front rather than the battlefield.
IMV Russia want another win to sell to the population. They got Bakhmut, but that was not a big win, and it was massively costly. Adviika would give them another win, which they can hope they sell as less bloody. That salient has also been an annoyance to the Russians for years, as it allows artillery to attack Donetsk city and Makiivka.
Therefore Russia concentrate on 'winning' Adviika, and they're too stretched atm to defend strongly everywhere. My question is whether they're stretched because they're short of material, or because they're preparing a bigger offensive.
There are some rumours coming through that Ukraine is about to start a major offensive over the Dnipro into the Kherson area. Ukraine has been making a bridgehead for some time and had been building up mechanised troops behind. Now they are closing down the airspace with complete aerial superiority. This is what you would do right before an attack. Apparently the Russians have almost no mechanisation in this direction because of the domination of Ukrainian FPV drones and the Russian focus on Andriivka. Worth keeping an eye on over the next couple of weeks!
I think that's wishful thinking.
Ukraine is carrying out a series of cross-river operations to harass Russian forces and to prevent Russian artillery from firing at civilians in Kherson City and other right-bank settlements. These have been quite successful, but it's being hyped up by Russian milibloggers who like to criticise senior officers in the Russian military, and by excitable observers on the Ukrainian side.
River crossings have regularly been complete failures and an utter shambles on both sides, even relatively small-scale ones. I think it's complete fantasy to think that there's even a remote chance of Ukraine conducting a major cross-Dnipro operation.
I wonder if there will ever be another Boris Johnson? - a Tory who wins the London Mayoralty twice, the first when he began as rank outsider, wins a referendum vs the establishment who were 1/4f, then a landslide at a GE, yet still have all his opponents refusing to admit he was really a threat, and kidding themselves they only wanted rid of him because he was a liability, rather than the bloke who kept beating them every time
I wanted rid of him because he was a grifting liar who demeaned every office he ever held and who wasn't very good at running things, but who was also a threat because he appealed to a lot of people whose political priority was seeing people they dislike annoyed. It was a potent and dangerous combination that caused immense harm to the country.
“he appealed to a lot of people whose political priority was seeing people they dislike annoyed”
“Delicious”, as some might say!
"He annoys all the right people" was Johnson's great calling card. Such is life. Such is democracy. The great thing is that he is gone, entirely discredited and not coming back. That's really all that matters.
If Boris was still PM the Conservatives would at least be polling over 30% and Reform would not be polling the 5-10% they are on (if anything RefUK voters think Boris was too strict on lockdowns so would welcome the fact it seems he was more reticent on that after all).
Labour would also not be polling as high as it is now in the redwall, albeit the LDs might be doing a bit better again in the bluewall
Even after a sitting PM had been suspended from the Commons for lying? Because I don't see how you butterfly that away.
It's a manifestation of the wider problem with Boris. You can't have the attractive bits (the way with words, the optimism, the ability to attract people) without the utterly toxic bits (the ability to say what his audience wants to hear, even if it's flat out untrue.) They're two sides of the same coin/con.
Would Alex Johnson (all Boris's brain, none of his dishonesty) have made Brexit happen? Got to No 10? I rather doubt it.
If Boris was still PM the Conservatives would at least be polling over 30% and Reform would not be polling the 5-10% they are on (if anything RefUK voters think Boris was too strict on lockdowns so would welcome the fact it seems he was more reticent on that after all).
Labour would also not be polling as high as it is now in the redwall, albeit the LDs might be doing a bit better again in the bluewall
Looking at the YouGov tables for 7 July 2022 (just before Boris annouced his departure) and 1 November 2023 on the Conservative 2019 votes we have the following movement.
Top table 7 July 2022, bottom 1 November 2023
So a reduction in 10 for conservative retainers, an increase of 10 for Reform switchers, a reduction of 5 for Lib Dem switchers and an increase of 5 of don't knows.
I wonder if there will ever be another Boris Johnson? - a Tory who wins the London Mayoralty twice, the first when he began as rank outsider, wins a referendum vs the establishment who were 1/4f, then a landslide at a GE, yet still have all his opponents refusing to admit he was really a threat, and kidding themselves they only wanted rid of him because he was a liability, rather than the bloke who kept beating them every time
But that's not true. There's lots of us lefties, like me, who readily admit that Boris was a threat and a formidable electoral machine who was very hard to beat. We may have been baffled by his huge appeal, but we never denied it.
And yes, we wanted rid of him because he was a winner. But we failed - it wasn't us who got rid of him. It was his own party, with ample help from Boris himself.
They got rid of him as soon as they believed he would no longer be an electoral asset. And we can see that Boris Johnson agreed with them, because he was so confident in his appeal to the voters that he turned tail and fled from the prospect of fighting a by-election in his seat.
I wonder if there will ever be another Boris Johnson? - a Tory who wins the London Mayoralty twice, the first when he began as rank outsider, win a referendum vs the establishment who were 1/4f, then a landslide at a GE, yet still have all his opponents refusing to admit he was really a threat, and kidding themselves they only wanted rid of him because he was a liability, rather than the bloke who kept beating them every time
The left wanted Boris gone as he was the most charismatic Conservative election winner since Thatcher, leaders like him only come round once a generation. The Tories may regret the day he left No 10 and Parliament unless a future Labour government completely wrecks the economy and they get in again by default (ironically much like Starmer is now due to cost of living primarily, he is no charismatic election winner for Labour like Blair was either)
How do you envisage the current economy being "completely wrecked"?
I wonder if there will ever be another Boris Johnson? - a Tory who wins the London Mayoralty twice, the first when he began as rank outsider, wins a referendum vs the establishment who were 1/4f, then a landslide at a GE, yet still have all his opponents refusing to admit he was really a threat, and kidding themselves they only wanted rid of him because he was a liability, rather than the bloke who kept beating them every time
Do you think he'd lead the Tories to victory again in 2024?
I think he probably wouldn't, but he does have something special so hard to count him out.
I do think there's an argument that he's a one off and essentially can't be copied.
In 2019 Boris's support base included a few million groupies but was added to by 'anyone but Corbyns', Get Brexit Done' people, and those who believed that as PM he could grow up a bit out of necessity.
Before he left he was, rightly, abandoned by all but the groupies. This had nothing to do with anti Tories
I wonder if there will ever be another Boris Johnson? - a Tory who wins the London Mayoralty twice, the first when he began as rank outsider, win a referendum vs the establishment who were 1/4f, then a landslide at a GE, yet still have all his opponents refusing to admit he was really a threat, and kidding themselves they only wanted rid of him because he was a liability, rather than the bloke who kept beating them every time
The left wanted Boris gone as he was the most charismatic Conservative election winner since Thatcher, leaders like him only come round once a generation. The Tories may regret the day he left No 10 and Parliament unless a future Labour government completely wrecks the economy and they get in again by default (ironically much like Starmer is now due to cost of living primarily, he is no charismatic election winner for Labour like Blair was either)
How do you envisage the current economy being "completely wrecked"?
Inflation starts rising again, as does interest rates, growth slows and taxes increase yet further, unemployment up, public sector and transport unions start more regular strikes pressing a Starmer government for bigger pay rises etc
Don't know if it affects anyone but the French Senate have backed automatic visas for second home owners. So the roll back of Brexit has started. Hopefully it passes and is just the beginning of a dismantling which will be speeded up when we get a Labour government
Interesting. Presumably still ones you have to apply and pay for?
Ideally that could help me avoid the increasingly frequent holdups at immigration (in other countries, the French never bother) while passport people count up my stamps.
It should do that and improve the saleability of French properties. Many people I know who like to base themselves there will be delighted.
The French authorities finally realising that border pedantry only harms their own economy, and that the British are are great source of money no longer worth pissing off just for the hell of it?
More likely they felt they owed us after an enormous increase in 'Tax Habitation' charges now abolished for non second home owners
Just been down that rabbithole on French property taxation.
As @leon might argue, life is to be experienced in all its richness and diversity.
In that spirit, and because Mrs Burgessian is having a clear-out, I've just for the very first time in my life put some items on ebay for sale.
After just a few minutes already some action! Christ, this is exciting!
(£5 bid for an Airfix 1:32 scale Triumph Herald, and an offer below starting bid price for a 1:72 scale Britten Norman Islander).
This is how to while away winter afternoons for sure.
Handley Page Victor? Cool!
Was there ever a more striking and glamorous-looking aircraft? That crescent-shaped wing and the fluted tail. Extraordinary.
The Vulcan gets all the kudos but for my money, the grace of the Victor outclasses it.
Of the smaller planes there was the Hawker Hunter.
There's a very good book on the post-war British aviation industry and the depressingly large number of opportunities that were squandered. "Empire of the Clouds" by James Hamilton-Paterson.
I have to disagree on the Victor though: it's fugly. The frontal view is awful IMV, with those windows between the massive intakes. The Valiant looked better, albeit a less adventurous and successful design. And of course, the Vulcan beats them all.
Tbf the Vulcan was impressive at air shows. The way it could just roll forward what seemed just a few yards and then, whoosh, up it went. Them were the days. (You had to cover your ears for the F-104s though).
I had a peanut butter sandwich under a parked Avro Vulcan once. It was raining.
The Victor looked really evil. The Vulcan looked like science fiction, the Valiant just looked like a plane, but the Victor looked like a mad surgeon with a scalpel.
Apparently Mayor Pete is in Kyiv today. I'd forgotten he was a member of the Biden administration. Wasn't he supposed to be the next big political thing at one point?
'It appears that Elaine Cottam genuinely didn’t know what a witness statement was, nor had she worked out what it might be by the end of her inquiry session.
Beer’s questioning concluded shortly thereafter. He had, without being derailed, successfully demonstrated that Fujitsu had kept a serious software problem from a Subpostmaster who then lost money and subsequently her livelihood as a result of the callous ineptitude of Elaine Cottam and her colleagues at the Post Office. Having achieved this, it seems someone at the Post Office went on to produce a misleading witness statement supposedly authored by someone without the capacity or capability of being responsible for it.'
"When asked about this sentence, Cottam said she didn’t remember asking for any call logs, didn’t remember receiving them and didn’t know why she needed them, because she wouldn’t understand them. She seemed utterly mystified at the idea she might be able to offer any analysis of them, and with the air of someone looking at hieroglyphics on a piece of wood, told the Inquiry:"
That would be funny were this not so serious. This piece of work repeatedly tried to insinuate dishonesty by the husband of the SPM on no basis whatsoever despite being repeatedly challenged by the KC referring to it as the "suspicion without proof issue raising its head again?”
Ropes and lampposts are too good for these people.
Cottam has also thrown the lawyer under the bus here. This lawyer has given evidence already but will likely need to be recalled because it appears that she wrote the witness statement and/or coached the witness in a way which should get her struck off. Though my guess is that the SRA will prove even more ineffectual than the Met at nailing any of these bastards.
Who cares? The Post Office inquiry is like the Covid inquiry. A lot of fuss about who knew what, when thanks to Computer Weekly and Private Eye we already know the gist. The PO used a flawed computer system and screwed over a lot of sub-post masters. Just pay them compensation before they die. Lessons will not be learned. No organisation watching this will set up a "red team" to challenge management. Diversity is for the website, not the boardroom.
If Boris was still PM the Conservatives would at least be polling over 30% and Reform would not be polling the 5-10% they are on (if anything RefUK voters think Boris was too strict on lockdowns so would welcome the fact it seems he was more reticent on that after all).
Labour would also not be polling as high as it is now in the redwall, albeit the LDs might be doing a bit better again in the bluewall
Looking at the YouGov tables for 7 July 2022 (just before Boris annouced his departure) and 1 November 2023 on the Conservative 2019 votes we have the following movement.
Top table 7 July 2022, bottom 1 November 2023
So a reduction in 10 for conservative retainers, an increase of 10 for Reform switchers, a reduction of 5 for Lib Dem switchers and an increase of 5 of don't knows.
So the swing from Conservative to Reform (and to a lesser extent to Labour) under Sunak is more than the swing from LD to Conservative since Boris has gone and Sunak became PM.
I wonder if there will ever be another Boris Johnson? - a Tory who wins the London Mayoralty twice, the first when he began as rank outsider, wins a referendum vs the establishment who were 1/4f, then a landslide at a GE, yet still have all his opponents refusing to admit he was really a threat, and kidding themselves they only wanted rid of him because he was a liability, rather than the bloke who kept beating them every time
Do you think he'd lead the Tories to victory again in 2024?
I think he probably wouldn't, but he does have something special so hard to count him out.
I do think there's an argument that he's a one off and essentially can't be copied.
In 2019 Boris's support base included a few million groupies but was added to by 'anyone but Corbyns', Get Brexit Done' people, and those who believed that as PM he could grow up a bit out of necessity.
Before he left he was, rightly, abandoned by all but the groupies. This had nothing to do with anti Tories
There were a significant number of Anyone But Boris in the former Tory voters though, who abstained/voted otherwise in 2019.
I wonder if there will ever be another Boris Johnson? - a Tory who wins the London Mayoralty twice, the first when he began as rank outsider, wins a referendum vs the establishment who were 1/4f, then a landslide at a GE, yet still have all his opponents refusing to admit he was really a threat, and kidding themselves they only wanted rid of him because he was a liability, rather than the bloke who kept beating them every time
Do you think he'd lead the Tories to victory again in 2024?
I think he probably wouldn't, but he does have something special so hard to count him out.
I do think there's an argument that he's a one off and essentially can't be copied.
In 2019 Boris's support base included a few million groupies but was added to by 'anyone but Corbyns', Get Brexit Done' people, and those who believed that as PM he could grow up a bit out of necessity.
Before he left he was, rightly, abandoned by all but the groupies. This had nothing to do with anti Tories
There were a significant number of Anyone But Boris in the former Tory voters though, who abstained/voted otherwise in 2019.
If Boris was still PM the Conservatives would at least be polling over 30% and Reform would not be polling the 5-10% they are on (if anything RefUK voters think Boris was too strict on lockdowns so would welcome the fact it seems he was more reticent on that after all).
Labour would also not be polling as high as it is now in the redwall, albeit the LDs might be doing a bit better again in the bluewall
If only your omniscience of what would have been could be converted into omniscience of what will be, you could make a fortune out of political betting!
One seer on PB was predicting, as early returns began coming in, that Republicans were likely to capture Kentucky Governor's mansion because Republicans were the national opposition party save for controlling (in some limited, twisted sense anyway) US House.
Did NOT turn out that way when the votes were counted.
Of course, anyone who'd actually bothered to follow this race would have know that there were LOCAL factors at play. Or understood that in USA state executive races do NOT always mirror trends in presidential, congressional or legislative voting.
For example, election of Mitt Romney, Charlie Baker and other Republicans in otherwise Blue States.
AND the re-election of Democratic incumbent Andy Beshear in Kentucky yesterday.
And Trump can argue it did turn out that way as his voters did not turn out in Kentucky, where he failed to campaign in person for the GOP candidate, unlike in Mississippi where the GOP candidate won who Trump did campaign for and who he can say his voters turned out for.
So you can't completely divorce last night's results from the 2024 presidential election
As @leon might argue, life is to be experienced in all its richness and diversity.
In that spirit, and because Mrs Burgessian is having a clear-out, I've just for the very first time in my life put some items on ebay for sale.
After just a few minutes already some action! Christ, this is exciting!
(£5 bid for an Airfix 1:32 scale Triumph Herald, and an offer below starting bid price for a 1:72 scale Britten Norman Islander).
This is how to while away winter afternoons for sure.
Handley Page Victor? Cool!
Was there ever a more striking and glamorous-looking aircraft? That crescent-shaped wing and the fluted tail. Extraordinary.
The Vulcan gets all the kudos but for my money, the grace of the Victor outclasses it.
Of the smaller planes there was the Hawker Hunter.
There's a very good book on the post-war British aviation industry and the depressingly large number of opportunities that were squandered. "Empire of the Clouds" by James Hamilton-Paterson.
I have to disagree on the Victor though: it's fugly. The frontal view is awful IMV, with those windows between the massive intakes. The Valiant looked better, albeit a less adventurous and successful design. And of course, the Vulcan beats them all.
Tbf the Vulcan was impressive at air shows. The way it could just roll forward what seemed just a few yards and then, whoosh, up it went. Them were the days. (You had to cover your ears for the F-104s though).
I had a peanut butter sandwich under a parked Avro Vulcan once. It was raining.
The Victor looked really evil. The Vulcan looked like science fiction, the Valiant just looked like a plane, but the Victor looked like a mad surgeon with a scalpel.
Especially, in the case of the Victor, with the fuel tanks and "Kuechemann carrots" fixed directly to the wing (the latter to ease out the air flow but used for carrying Window* dispensers). Before they were cluttered up with air to air refuelling gear.
As for the Vulcan, I've been in the Museum of Flight one (the Scottish national museum, near Edinburgh, not the Seattle one). Not as compact as a fighter, but a surprisingly snug pilot's place with a fighter joystick. Not the airliner style wheel.
I wonder if there will ever be another Boris Johnson? - a Tory who wins the London Mayoralty twice, the first when he began as rank outsider, win a referendum vs the establishment who were 1/4f, then a landslide at a GE, yet still have all his opponents refusing to admit he was really a threat, and kidding themselves they only wanted rid of him because he was a liability, rather than the bloke who kept beating them every time
The left wanted Boris gone as he was the most charismatic Conservative election winner since Thatcher, leaders like him only come round once a generation. The Tories may regret the day he left No 10 and Parliament unless a future Labour government completely wrecks the economy and they get in again by default (ironically much like Starmer is now due to cost of living primarily, he is no charismatic election winner for Labour like Blair was either)
How do you envisage the current economy being "completely wrecked"?
Inflation starts rising again, as does interest rates, growth slows and taxes increase yet further, unemployment up, public sector and transport unions start more regular strikes pressing a Starmer government for bigger pay rises etc
Verily we live in a time of milk and honey. Fact is. It would be very difficult to do any worse than the last few years.
If Boris was still PM the Conservatives would at least be polling over 30% and Reform would not be polling the 5-10% they are on (if anything RefUK voters think Boris was too strict on lockdowns so would welcome the fact it seems he was more reticent on that after all).
Labour would also not be polling as high as it is now in the redwall, albeit the LDs might be doing a bit better again in the bluewall
Looking at the YouGov tables for 7 July 2022 (just before Boris annouced his departure) and 1 November 2023 on the Conservative 2019 votes we have the following movement.
Top table 7 July 2022, bottom 1 November 2023
So a reduction in 10 for conservative retainers, an increase of 10 for Reform switchers, a reduction of 5 for Lib Dem switchers and an increase of 5 of don't knows.
So the swing from Conservative to Reform (and to a lesser extent to Labour) under Sunak is more than the swing from LD to Conservative since Boris has gone and Sunak became PM.
'It appears that Elaine Cottam genuinely didn’t know what a witness statement was, nor had she worked out what it might be by the end of her inquiry session.
Beer’s questioning concluded shortly thereafter. He had, without being derailed, successfully demonstrated that Fujitsu had kept a serious software problem from a Subpostmaster who then lost money and subsequently her livelihood as a result of the callous ineptitude of Elaine Cottam and her colleagues at the Post Office. Having achieved this, it seems someone at the Post Office went on to produce a misleading witness statement supposedly authored by someone without the capacity or capability of being responsible for it.'
"When asked about this sentence, Cottam said she didn’t remember asking for any call logs, didn’t remember receiving them and didn’t know why she needed them, because she wouldn’t understand them. She seemed utterly mystified at the idea she might be able to offer any analysis of them, and with the air of someone looking at hieroglyphics on a piece of wood, told the Inquiry:"
That would be funny were this not so serious. This piece of work repeatedly tried to insinuate dishonesty by the husband of the SPM on no basis whatsoever despite being repeatedly challenged by the KC referring to it as the "suspicion without proof issue raising its head again?”
Ropes and lampposts are too good for these people.
Cottam has also thrown the lawyer under the bus here. This lawyer has given evidence already but will likely need to be recalled because it appears that she wrote the witness statement and/or coached the witness in a way which should get her struck off. Though my guess is that the SRA will prove even more ineffectual than the Met at nailing any of these bastards.
Forgive me for not following this story but given it's established now that those who were originally accused were innocent of stealing any money is the suggestion now that someone else did or that no money was actually stolen at all?
What takes this off the front page in the near future? What potential news event? Short of a real black swan I think there are a few options to mull over:
- A financial crisis (US bonds have been very volatile, maybe a sudden stockmarket rout) - A huge natural disaster - but it would have to be truly huge, and probably close to home. Floods in Somerset or a bad earthquake in Mexico wouldn't be enough. Campi Phlaegri erupting perhaps - A Tory leadership bid with letters going into the 1922. - A snap general election - Trump going to jail - A surprise death: Trump (again), Biden, Putin, Zelenskyy - A horrific UK crime e.g. child abduction or mass shooting - Major breakthrough for either side in the Ukraine war
Otherwise I think we're stuck with Israel-Hamas and its allied topics (pro-Palestine protests, Labour resignations, antisemitism) for a couple of weeks at least.
Heavy Ukraine weaponry is moving over to the left bank of the Dnipro. If you want a "surprise" scenerio, then all parties having worked together to secretly deliver F-16s to Ukraine to support a winter offensive towards Crimea would be a good one.
I don't quite get what Russia is up to in allowing this, unless it's all a bit Admiral Akbar (though of course it should be noted that yes, it was a trap but the trap failed to close around its target).
Russian civil unrest leading to revolution is not out of the question though. It seems more likely to me that if there is a definitive outcome to the Ukraine War, it will be decided on the home front rather than the battlefield.
IMV Russia want another win to sell to the population. They got Bakhmut, but that was not a big win, and it was massively costly. Adviika would give them another win, which they can hope they sell as less bloody. That salient has also been an annoyance to the Russians for years, as it allows artillery to attack Donetsk city and Makiivka.
Therefore Russia concentrate on 'winning' Adviika, and they're too stretched atm to defend strongly everywhere. My question is whether they're stretched because they're short of material, or because they're preparing a bigger offensive.
There are some rumours coming through that Ukraine is about to start a major offensive over the Dnipro into the Kherson area. Ukraine has been making a bridgehead for some time and had been building up mechanised troops behind. Now they are closing down the airspace with complete aerial superiority. This is what you would do right before an attack. Apparently the Russians have almost no mechanisation in this direction because of the domination of Ukrainian FPV drones and the Russian focus on Andriivka. Worth keeping an eye on over the next couple of weeks!
I think that's wishful thinking.
Ukraine is carrying out a series of cross-river operations to harass Russian forces and to prevent Russian artillery from firing at civilians in Kherson City and other right-bank settlements. These have been quite successful, but it's being hyped up by Russian milibloggers who like to criticise senior officers in the Russian military, and by excitable observers on the Ukrainian side.
River crossings have regularly been complete failures and an utter shambles on both sides, even relatively small-scale ones. I think it's complete fantasy to think that there's even a remote chance of Ukraine conducting a major cross-Dnipro operation.
Unless they have air superiority. So - when will the F-16s actually turn up?
If Boris was still PM the Conservatives would at least be polling over 30% and Reform would not be polling the 5-10% they are on (if anything RefUK voters think Boris was too strict on lockdowns so would welcome the fact it seems he was more reticent on that after all).
Labour would also not be polling as high as it is now in the redwall, albeit the LDs might be doing a bit better again in the bluewall
Looking at the YouGov tables for 7 July 2022 (just before Boris annouced his departure) and 1 November 2023 on the Conservative 2019 votes we have the following movement.
Top table 7 July 2022, bottom 1 November 2023
So a reduction in 10 for conservative retainers, an increase of 10 for Reform switchers, a reduction of 5 for Lib Dem switchers and an increase of 5 of don't knows.
So the swing from Conservative to Reform (and to a lesser extent to Labour) under Sunak is more than the swing from LD to Conservative since Boris has gone and Sunak became PM.
TSE is of course in the latter category
I’m voting Labour.
If so no more comments from you about Starmer's removing the VAT exemption on private schools fees given you would have voted for it.
Would also mean you haven't voted Tory at a general election since 2015, so are clearly no longer a PB Tory on any definition
What takes this off the front page in the near future? What potential news event? Short of a real black swan I think there are a few options to mull over:
- A financial crisis (US bonds have been very volatile, maybe a sudden stockmarket rout) - A huge natural disaster - but it would have to be truly huge, and probably close to home. Floods in Somerset or a bad earthquake in Mexico wouldn't be enough. Campi Phlaegri erupting perhaps - A Tory leadership bid with letters going into the 1922. - A snap general election - Trump going to jail - A surprise death: Trump (again), Biden, Putin, Zelenskyy - A horrific UK crime e.g. child abduction or mass shooting - Major breakthrough for either side in the Ukraine war
Otherwise I think we're stuck with Israel-Hamas and its allied topics (pro-Palestine protests, Labour resignations, antisemitism) for a couple of weeks at least.
Heavy Ukraine weaponry is moving over to the left bank of the Dnipro. If you want a "surprise" scenerio, then all parties having worked together to secretly deliver F-16s to Ukraine to support a winter offensive towards Crimea would be a good one.
I don't quite get what Russia is up to in allowing this, unless it's all a bit Admiral Akbar (though of course it should be noted that yes, it was a trap but the trap failed to close around its target).
Russian civil unrest leading to revolution is not out of the question though. It seems more likely to me that if there is a definitive outcome to the Ukraine War, it will be decided on the home front rather than the battlefield.
IMV Russia want another win to sell to the population. They got Bakhmut, but that was not a big win, and it was massively costly. Adviika would give them another win, which they can hope they sell as less bloody. That salient has also been an annoyance to the Russians for years, as it allows artillery to attack Donetsk city and Makiivka.
Therefore Russia concentrate on 'winning' Adviika, and they're too stretched atm to defend strongly everywhere. My question is whether they're stretched because they're short of material, or because they're preparing a bigger offensive.
There are some rumours coming through that Ukraine is about to start a major offensive over the Dnipro into the Kherson area. Ukraine has been making a bridgehead for some time and had been building up mechanised troops behind. Now they are closing down the airspace with complete aerial superiority. This is what you would do right before an attack. Apparently the Russians have almost no mechanisation in this direction because of the domination of Ukrainian FPV drones and the Russian focus on Andriivka. Worth keeping an eye on over the next couple of weeks!
I think that's wishful thinking.
Ukraine is carrying out a series of cross-river operations to harass Russian forces and to prevent Russian artillery from firing at civilians in Kherson City and other right-bank settlements. These have been quite successful, but it's being hyped up by Russian milibloggers who like to criticise senior officers in the Russian military, and by excitable observers on the Ukrainian side.
River crossings have regularly been complete failures and an utter shambles on both sides, even relatively small-scale ones. I think it's complete fantasy to think that there's even a remote chance of Ukraine conducting a major cross-Dnipro operation.
Unless they have air superiority. So - when will the F-16s actually turn up?
On air superiority:
"Enemy channels report a significant presence of Ukrainian air defense on the right Bank of the Dnipro, which has effectively closed the skies for the Russian air force over Krynky."
'It appears that Elaine Cottam genuinely didn’t know what a witness statement was, nor had she worked out what it might be by the end of her inquiry session.
Beer’s questioning concluded shortly thereafter. He had, without being derailed, successfully demonstrated that Fujitsu had kept a serious software problem from a Subpostmaster who then lost money and subsequently her livelihood as a result of the callous ineptitude of Elaine Cottam and her colleagues at the Post Office. Having achieved this, it seems someone at the Post Office went on to produce a misleading witness statement supposedly authored by someone without the capacity or capability of being responsible for it.'
"When asked about this sentence, Cottam said she didn’t remember asking for any call logs, didn’t remember receiving them and didn’t know why she needed them, because she wouldn’t understand them. She seemed utterly mystified at the idea she might be able to offer any analysis of them, and with the air of someone looking at hieroglyphics on a piece of wood, told the Inquiry:"
That would be funny were this not so serious. This piece of work repeatedly tried to insinuate dishonesty by the husband of the SPM on no basis whatsoever despite being repeatedly challenged by the KC referring to it as the "suspicion without proof issue raising its head again?”
Ropes and lampposts are too good for these people.
Cottam has also thrown the lawyer under the bus here. This lawyer has given evidence already but will likely need to be recalled because it appears that she wrote the witness statement and/or coached the witness in a way which should get her struck off. Though my guess is that the SRA will prove even more ineffectual than the Met at nailing any of these bastards.
Forgive me for not following this story but given it's established now that those who were originally accused were innocent of stealing any money is the suggestion now that someone else did or that no money was actually stolen at all?
The actual money was correct. The computer record of how much money should be there, was wrong.
Do you think Nigel Farage would make a good or a bad leader of the Conservative Party? Very good leader: 8% (Con 2019 voter 18%) Fairly good leader: 13% (Con 23%) Fairly bad leader: 12% (Con 14%) Very bad leader: 45% (Con 27%) https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1722298400798818624
If Boris was still PM the Conservatives would at least be polling over 30% and Reform would not be polling the 5-10% they are on (if anything RefUK voters think Boris was too strict on lockdowns so would welcome the fact it seems he was more reticent on that after all).
Labour would also not be polling as high as it is now in the redwall, albeit the LDs might be doing a bit better again in the bluewall
Looking at the YouGov tables for 7 July 2022 (just before Boris annouced his departure) and 1 November 2023 on the Conservative 2019 votes we have the following movement.
Top table 7 July 2022, bottom 1 November 2023
So a reduction in 10 for conservative retainers, an increase of 10 for Reform switchers, a reduction of 5 for Lib Dem switchers and an increase of 5 of don't knows.
So the swing from Conservative to Reform (and to a lesser extent to Labour) under Sunak is more than the swing from LD to Conservative since Boris has gone and Sunak became PM.
TSE is of course in the latter category
I’m voting Labour.
If so no more comments from you about Starmer's removing the VAT exemption on private schools given you would have voted for it.
Would also mean you haven't voted Tory at a general election since 2015, so are clearly no longer a PB Tory on any definition
It is a price worth paying to get rid of Braverman.
'It appears that Elaine Cottam genuinely didn’t know what a witness statement was, nor had she worked out what it might be by the end of her inquiry session.
Beer’s questioning concluded shortly thereafter. He had, without being derailed, successfully demonstrated that Fujitsu had kept a serious software problem from a Subpostmaster who then lost money and subsequently her livelihood as a result of the callous ineptitude of Elaine Cottam and her colleagues at the Post Office. Having achieved this, it seems someone at the Post Office went on to produce a misleading witness statement supposedly authored by someone without the capacity or capability of being responsible for it.'
"When asked about this sentence, Cottam said she didn’t remember asking for any call logs, didn’t remember receiving them and didn’t know why she needed them, because she wouldn’t understand them. She seemed utterly mystified at the idea she might be able to offer any analysis of them, and with the air of someone looking at hieroglyphics on a piece of wood, told the Inquiry:"
That would be funny were this not so serious. This piece of work repeatedly tried to insinuate dishonesty by the husband of the SPM on no basis whatsoever despite being repeatedly challenged by the KC referring to it as the "suspicion without proof issue raising its head again?”
Ropes and lampposts are too good for these people.
Cottam has also thrown the lawyer under the bus here. This lawyer has given evidence already but will likely need to be recalled because it appears that she wrote the witness statement and/or coached the witness in a way which should get her struck off. Though my guess is that the SRA will prove even more ineffectual than the Met at nailing any of these bastards.
Forgive me for not following this story but given it's established now that those who were originally accused were innocent of stealing any money is the suggestion now that someone else did or that no money was actually stolen at all?
No money was stolen. There were no crimes. The Horizon system was spewing out nonsense figures. The prosecutions and civil actions were on the basis of nonsense figures which were wholly untrue.
If Boris was still PM the Conservatives would at least be polling over 30% and Reform would not be polling the 5-10% they are on (if anything RefUK voters think Boris was too strict on lockdowns so would welcome the fact it seems he was more reticent on that after all).
Labour would also not be polling as high as it is now in the redwall, albeit the LDs might be doing a bit better again in the bluewall
Looking at the YouGov tables for 7 July 2022 (just before Boris annouced his departure) and 1 November 2023 on the Conservative 2019 votes we have the following movement.
Top table 7 July 2022, bottom 1 November 2023
So a reduction in 10 for conservative retainers, an increase of 10 for Reform switchers, a reduction of 5 for Lib Dem switchers and an increase of 5 of don't knows.
So the swing from Conservative to Reform (and to a lesser extent to Labour) under Sunak is more than the swing from LD to Conservative since Boris has gone and Sunak became PM.
TSE is of course in the latter category
I’m voting Labour.
If so no more comments from you about Starmer's removing the VAT exemption on private schools given you would have voted for it.
Would also mean you haven't voted Tory at a general election since 2015, so are clearly no longer a PB Tory on any definition
It is a price worth paying to get rid of Braverman.
May be the opposite, if Sunak loses Braverman will be a strong contender to be Leader of the Opposition, certainly if she gets to the members vote
Do you think Nigel Farage would make a good or a bad leader of the Conservative Party? Very good leader: 8% (Con 2019 voter 18%) Fairly good leader: 13% (Con 23%) Fairly bad leader: 12% (Con 14%) Very bad leader: 45% (Con 27%) https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1722298400798818624
I think he would make an excellent Tory Party leader.
If Boris was still PM the Conservatives would at least be polling over 30% and Reform would not be polling the 5-10% they are on (if anything RefUK voters think Boris was too strict on lockdowns so would welcome the fact it seems he was more reticent on that after all).
Labour would also not be polling as high as it is now in the redwall, albeit the LDs might be doing a bit better again in the bluewall
Looking at the YouGov tables for 7 July 2022 (just before Boris annouced his departure) and 1 November 2023 on the Conservative 2019 votes we have the following movement.
Top table 7 July 2022, bottom 1 November 2023
So a reduction in 10 for conservative retainers, an increase of 10 for Reform switchers, a reduction of 5 for Lib Dem switchers and an increase of 5 of don't knows.
So the swing from Conservative to Reform (and to a lesser extent to Labour) under Sunak is more than the swing from LD to Conservative since Boris has gone and Sunak became PM.
TSE is of course in the latter category
I’m voting Labour.
If so no more comments from you about Starmer's removing the VAT exemption on private schools given you would have voted for it.
Would also mean you haven't voted Tory at a general election since 2015, so are clearly no longer a PB Tory on any definition
It is a price worth paying to get rid of Braverman.
May be the opposite, if Sunak loses Braverman will be a strong contender to be Leader of the Opposition, certainly if she gets to the members vote
'It appears that Elaine Cottam genuinely didn’t know what a witness statement was, nor had she worked out what it might be by the end of her inquiry session.
Beer’s questioning concluded shortly thereafter. He had, without being derailed, successfully demonstrated that Fujitsu had kept a serious software problem from a Subpostmaster who then lost money and subsequently her livelihood as a result of the callous ineptitude of Elaine Cottam and her colleagues at the Post Office. Having achieved this, it seems someone at the Post Office went on to produce a misleading witness statement supposedly authored by someone without the capacity or capability of being responsible for it.'
"When asked about this sentence, Cottam said she didn’t remember asking for any call logs, didn’t remember receiving them and didn’t know why she needed them, because she wouldn’t understand them. She seemed utterly mystified at the idea she might be able to offer any analysis of them, and with the air of someone looking at hieroglyphics on a piece of wood, told the Inquiry:"
That would be funny were this not so serious. This piece of work repeatedly tried to insinuate dishonesty by the husband of the SPM on no basis whatsoever despite being repeatedly challenged by the KC referring to it as the "suspicion without proof issue raising its head again?”
Ropes and lampposts are too good for these people.
Cottam has also thrown the lawyer under the bus here. This lawyer has given evidence already but will likely need to be recalled because it appears that she wrote the witness statement and/or coached the witness in a way which should get her struck off. Though my guess is that the SRA will prove even more ineffectual than the Met at nailing any of these bastards.
Forgive me for not following this story but given it's established now that those who were originally accused were innocent of stealing any money is the suggestion now that someone else did or that no money was actually stolen at all?
No money was stolen. There were no crimes. The Horizon system was spewing out nonsense figures. The prosecutions and civil actions were on the basis of nonsense figures which were wholly untrue.
The Post Office was part of public sector back then wasn't it, why are these people not being compensated - why the inquiry?
I feel a bit sorry for the Cottam woman - this was 20 years ago - presumably she is attending voluntarily as she is not being accused?
Do you think Nigel Farage would make a good or a bad leader of the Conservative Party? Very good leader: 8% (Con 2019 voter 18%) Fairly good leader: 13% (Con 23%) Fairly bad leader: 12% (Con 14%) Very bad leader: 45% (Con 27%) https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1722298400798818624
I think he would make an excellent Tory Party leader.
He wouldn't get the chance, CCHQ would never allow him on the candidates list.
Only way it could indirectly happen is if ReformUK ever won more votes and seats than the Tories and Farage's party did a takeover of the Tories (similar to what happened in Canada after their Tories heavy defeat in 1993 when the Tory Progressive Conservatives eventually ended up merging with the Canadian Alliance, the successor of the populist right Reform party to form today's Conservative Party of Canada)
Of course, the same thing can be said for another trouble spit: Peace is impossible while Hamas denies Israel's right to exist...
I'm not sure Israel is completely sound on Hamas's right to exist after the 7th October outrages, which is where the parallel with Russia/Ukraine breaks down.
If Boris was still PM the Conservatives would at least be polling over 30% and Reform would not be polling the 5-10% they are on (if anything RefUK voters think Boris was too strict on lockdowns so would welcome the fact it seems he was more reticent on that after all).
Labour would also not be polling as high as it is now in the redwall, albeit the LDs might be doing a bit better again in the bluewall
Looking at the YouGov tables for 7 July 2022 (just before Boris annouced his departure) and 1 November 2023 on the Conservative 2019 votes we have the following movement.
Top table 7 July 2022, bottom 1 November 2023
So a reduction in 10 for conservative retainers, an increase of 10 for Reform switchers, a reduction of 5 for Lib Dem switchers and an increase of 5 of don't knows.
So the swing from Conservative to Reform (and to a lesser extent to Labour) under Sunak is more than the swing from LD to Conservative since Boris has gone and Sunak became PM.
TSE is of course in the latter category
I’m voting Labour.
If so no more comments from you about Starmer's removing the VAT exemption on private schools fees given you would have voted for it.
Would also mean you haven't voted Tory at a general election since 2015, so are clearly no longer a PB Tory on any definition
If Boris was still PM the Conservatives would at least be polling over 30% and Reform would not be polling the 5-10% they are on (if anything RefUK voters think Boris was too strict on lockdowns so would welcome the fact it seems he was more reticent on that after all).
Labour would also not be polling as high as it is now in the redwall, albeit the LDs might be doing a bit better again in the bluewall
Looking at the YouGov tables for 7 July 2022 (just before Boris annouced his departure) and 1 November 2023 on the Conservative 2019 votes we have the following movement.
Top table 7 July 2022, bottom 1 November 2023
So a reduction in 10 for conservative retainers, an increase of 10 for Reform switchers, a reduction of 5 for Lib Dem switchers and an increase of 5 of don't knows.
So the swing from Conservative to Reform (and to a lesser extent to Labour) under Sunak is more than the swing from LD to Conservative since Boris has gone and Sunak became PM.
Mm, nice. Personally I'd gently cook the potato and onion with a little gravy and dripping in a covered pan to make stovies = pommes de terre etouffees = labskaus, and serve with the cold meat and pickled beetroot. But very much a matter of taste.
Plus one for stovies.
And on pickled beetroot, I don't want to come over all SeanT about it, but this stuff is amazing...
Two first world complaints: 1) My daughter goes to a school nortg of where we live. Today, she has played football* for the school team against a school south of where we live. She has just passed our house, and is crawling northwards in rush hour traffic back to her school, where I am waiting to meet her and drive her back through the same traffic back to our house. A pointless two mile round trip at an average speed of less than walking pace. I understand that safesguarding, etc, but still. Grr. 2) Every replaceable part in our car is wearing out at once. I have toyed today with trading it in for an electric, which are suddenly looking much less extortionate. I reckon the calculus is close to tge point now where the increased cost of car s balanced out by the cheaper cost of running it. But it appears impossible, even in quite roomy cars, to find one with three proper rear seats like and SMax or a Sharan. Manufacturers happily make passenget five uncomfortable in order to give passengers three and four a fold down armrest. Suboptimal for a family of 5.
Totally separately, it was a surprisingly good night for the Democrats last night.
They held the Kentucky Governorship by a decent margin in the end (albeit they missed in Mississippi by an identical one).
They held onto the Virginia Senate, while taking the House of Delegates from the Republicans.
In the House Special elections, the Dems increased their vote share slightly in Rhode Island.
Plus, after the Ohio legislature enacted a six week abortion ban, the voters amended the State constitution to guarantee access. I really do think that the Republican focus on abortion is a major vote loser. You can, I think, restrict access to 15 weeks without much electoral consequence, but when you go beyond there, voters tend to shout "No", even in Red States.
Ohio legalised recreational weed too. 24 states where it's legal now plus 7 where it's decriminalized.
Totally separately, it was a surprisingly good night for the Democrats last night.
They held the Kentucky Governorship by a decent margin in the end (albeit they missed in Mississippi by an identical one).
They held onto the Virginia Senate, while taking the House of Delegates from the Republicans.
In the House Special elections, the Dems increased their vote share slightly in Rhode Island.
Plus, after the Ohio legislature enacted a six week abortion ban, the voters amended the State constitution to guarantee access. I really do think that the Republican focus on abortion is a major vote loser. You can, I think, restrict access to 15 weeks without much electoral consequence, but when you go beyond there, voters tend to shout "No", even in Red States.
And Trump was not on the ballot and he did not endorse the GOP candidate in Kentucky but only in Mississippi, so a reasonable night for him too, he can say his voters only came out where he told them too (he also fell out with Youngkin's Virginia GOP).
Trump is also not as hardline against abortion as DeSantis is or Pence was so Trump won't be at all bothered by the Ohio ballot result either
Of course, the same thing can be said for another trouble spit: Peace is impossible while Hamas denies Israel's right to exist...
I'm not sure Israel is completely sound on Hamas's right to exist after the 7th October outrages, which is where the parallel with Russia/Ukraine breaks down.
Hamas is not a country. Hamas are a bunch of thugs who claim to represent people who have not been consulted on that issue for years.
I wonder if there will ever be another Boris Johnson? - a Tory who wins the London Mayoralty twice, the first when he began as rank outsider, wins a referendum vs the establishment who were 1/4f, then a landslide at a GE, yet still have all his opponents refusing to admit he was really a threat, and kidding themselves they only wanted rid of him because he was a liability, rather than the bloke who kept beating them every time
Do you think he'd lead the Tories to victory again in 2024?
I think he probably wouldn't, but he does have something special so hard to count him out.
I do think there's an argument that he's a one off and essentially can't be copied.
Hard to say; the things that have come out in public since may well not have had he still been PM, so those who say "but the enquiry", "But the standards committee" are supposing what happened to him as non PM would have were he still in charge. Even if the polls were as bad now as they are now, he would have more chance of turning it around.
The polls wouldn't be as bad though - Truss would never have been PM, interest rates would probably not be as high, mortgages would be easier to get, plus he had residual loyalty from people who voted him in as PM that Truss and Sunak didn't and don't, as well as the humongous lead on personality over Sir Keir that would probably see him claw back a lot of votes during the campaign
He would have lost a lot of the anti Corbyn, Get Brexit Done votes so, on balance, I think he would probably have sneaked a small majority
If Boris was still PM the Conservatives would at least be polling over 30% and Reform would not be polling the 5-10% they are on (if anything RefUK voters think Boris was too strict on lockdowns so would welcome the fact it seems he was more reticent on that after all).
Labour would also not be polling as high as it is now in the redwall, albeit the LDs might be doing a bit better again in the bluewall
Looking at the YouGov tables for 7 July 2022 (just before Boris annouced his departure) and 1 November 2023 on the Conservative 2019 votes we have the following movement.
Top table 7 July 2022, bottom 1 November 2023
So a reduction in 10 for conservative retainers, an increase of 10 for Reform switchers, a reduction of 5 for Lib Dem switchers and an increase of 5 of don't knows.
So the swing from Conservative to Reform (and to a lesser extent to Labour) under Sunak is more than the swing from LD to Conservative since Boris has gone and Sunak became PM.
TSE is of course in the latter category
I’m voting Labour.
If so no more comments from you about Starmer's removing the VAT exemption on private schools fees given you would have voted for it.
Would also mean you haven't voted Tory at a general election since 2015, so are clearly no longer a PB Tory on any definition
Buffs nails
Some truth in that, there is greater ideological difference between Blairites and Corbynites in Labour than between Blairites and Cameroon Tories and Orange Book LDs and Corbynites and Greens and left leaning LDs.
There is also greater ideological difference now between Cameroon Tories and the ERG Tory right now than between the ERG and RefUK, UKIP and working class ex Labour Leave voters in the redwall.
PR would certainly bring something of a realignment
@PippaCrerar NEW: Rishi Sunak will not take action to ban the pro-Palestinian march on Armistice Day.
PM: "Saturday’s planned protest is not just disrespectful but offends our heartfelt gratitude to the memory of those who gave so much so that we may live in freedom and peace today. But part of that freedom is the right to peacefully protest.
"And the test of that freedom is whether our commitment to it can survive the discomfort and frustration of those who seek to use it, even if we disagree with them. We will meet that test and remain true to our principles."
Mm, nice. Personally I'd gently cook the potato and onion with a little gravy and dripping in a covered pan to make stovies = pommes de terre etouffees = labskaus, and serve with the cold meat and pickled beetroot. But very much a matter of taste.
Plus one for stovies.
And on pickled beetroot, I don't want to come over all SeanT about it, but this stuff is amazing...
If Boris was still PM the Conservatives would at least be polling over 30% and Reform would not be polling the 5-10% they are on (if anything RefUK voters think Boris was too strict on lockdowns so would welcome the fact it seems he was more reticent on that after all).
Labour would also not be polling as high as it is now in the redwall, albeit the LDs might be doing a bit better again in the bluewall
Looking at the YouGov tables for 7 July 2022 (just before Boris annouced his departure) and 1 November 2023 on the Conservative 2019 votes we have the following movement.
Top table 7 July 2022, bottom 1 November 2023
So a reduction in 10 for conservative retainers, an increase of 10 for Reform switchers, a reduction of 5 for Lib Dem switchers and an increase of 5 of don't knows.
So the swing from Conservative to Reform (and to a lesser extent to Labour) under Sunak is more than the swing from LD to Conservative since Boris has gone and Sunak became PM.
TSE is of course in the latter category
I’m voting Labour.
If so no more comments from you about Starmer's removing the VAT exemption on private schools fees given you would have voted for it.
Would also mean you haven't voted Tory at a general election since 2015, so are clearly no longer a PB Tory on any definition
Buffs nails
Some truth in that, there is greater ideological difference between Blairites and Corbynites in Labour than between Blairites and Cameroon Tories and Orange Book LDs and Corbynites and Greens and left leaning LDs.
There is also greater ideological difference now between Cameroon Tories and the ERG Tory right now than between the ERG and RefUK, UKIP and working class ex Labour Leave voters in the redwall.
PR would certainly bring something of a realignment
Yes
By "progressive Labour" I meant Corbynites, not that they existed then By "Old Labour" I meant RedWall types, who also didnt exist I suppose
'It appears that Elaine Cottam genuinely didn’t know what a witness statement was, nor had she worked out what it might be by the end of her inquiry session.
Beer’s questioning concluded shortly thereafter. He had, without being derailed, successfully demonstrated that Fujitsu had kept a serious software problem from a Subpostmaster who then lost money and subsequently her livelihood as a result of the callous ineptitude of Elaine Cottam and her colleagues at the Post Office. Having achieved this, it seems someone at the Post Office went on to produce a misleading witness statement supposedly authored by someone without the capacity or capability of being responsible for it.'
"When asked about this sentence, Cottam said she didn’t remember asking for any call logs, didn’t remember receiving them and didn’t know why she needed them, because she wouldn’t understand them. She seemed utterly mystified at the idea she might be able to offer any analysis of them, and with the air of someone looking at hieroglyphics on a piece of wood, told the Inquiry:"
That would be funny were this not so serious. This piece of work repeatedly tried to insinuate dishonesty by the husband of the SPM on no basis whatsoever despite being repeatedly challenged by the KC referring to it as the "suspicion without proof issue raising its head again?”
Ropes and lampposts are too good for these people.
Cottam has also thrown the lawyer under the bus here. This lawyer has given evidence already but will likely need to be recalled because it appears that she wrote the witness statement and/or coached the witness in a way which should get her struck off. Though my guess is that the SRA will prove even more ineffectual than the Met at nailing any of these bastards.
Forgive me for not following this story but given it's established now that those who were originally accused were innocent of stealing any money is the suggestion now that someone else did or that no money was actually stolen at all?
No money was stolen. There were no crimes. The Horizon system was spewing out nonsense figures. The prosecutions and civil actions were on the basis of nonsense figures which were wholly untrue.
The Post Office was part of public sector back then wasn't it, why are these people not being compensated - why the inquiry?
I feel a bit sorry for the Cottam woman - this was 20 years ago - presumably she is attending voluntarily as she is not being accused?
AIUI the inquiry has powers to compel witnesses, etc., so I imagine there is no real choice.
Speaking as a pedestrian, I do not want cyclists on the footpath. Or horses.
(Sunil or PtP might remember there used to be cattle roaming round Wanstead pre-foot and mouth.)
Different issue I think.
I'm am (and I think WfW will be) referring to where Rights of Way exist - hence the pairs wheelchairs / footpaths and cycles / bridleways, rather than the footway next to the street/road.
Speaking as a pedestrian, I do not want cyclists on the footpath. Or horses.
(Sunil or PtP might remember there used to be cattle roaming round Wanstead pre-foot and mouth.)
Different issue I think.
I'm am (and I think WfW will be) referring to unlawful access barriers where Rights of Way exist - hence the pairs wheelchairs / footpaths and cycles / bridleways, rather than the footway which is part of the street/road.
I think the conversation will be around persuading Councillors to embrace law.
Very happy to do a header explaining the legalities, but it might put PB to sleep !
@PippaCrerar NEW: Rishi Sunak will not take action to ban the pro-Palestinian march on Armistice Day.
PM: "Saturday’s planned protest is not just disrespectful but offends our heartfelt gratitude to the memory of those who gave so much so that we may live in freedom and peace today. But part of that freedom is the right to peacefully protest.
"And the test of that freedom is whether our commitment to it can survive the discomfort and frustration of those who seek to use it, even if we disagree with them. We will meet that test and remain true to our principles."
@PippaCrerar NEW: Rishi Sunak will not take action to ban the pro-Palestinian march on Armistice Day.
PM: "Saturday’s planned protest is not just disrespectful but offends our heartfelt gratitude to the memory of those who gave so much so that we may live in freedom and peace today. But part of that freedom is the right to peacefully protest.
"And the test of that freedom is whether our commitment to it can survive the discomfort and frustration of those who seek to use it, even if we disagree with them. We will meet that test and remain true to our principles."
An entirely ridiculous pantomime that began because the Tories felt they could nail Sadiq Khan on it. Now tensions have been massively inflamed, Khan is in the clear and the demo will go ahead. That Braverman and Sunak thought this was clever politics tells you everything.
'It appears that Elaine Cottam genuinely didn’t know what a witness statement was, nor had she worked out what it might be by the end of her inquiry session.
Beer’s questioning concluded shortly thereafter. He had, without being derailed, successfully demonstrated that Fujitsu had kept a serious software problem from a Subpostmaster who then lost money and subsequently her livelihood as a result of the callous ineptitude of Elaine Cottam and her colleagues at the Post Office. Having achieved this, it seems someone at the Post Office went on to produce a misleading witness statement supposedly authored by someone without the capacity or capability of being responsible for it.'
"When asked about this sentence, Cottam said she didn’t remember asking for any call logs, didn’t remember receiving them and didn’t know why she needed them, because she wouldn’t understand them. She seemed utterly mystified at the idea she might be able to offer any analysis of them, and with the air of someone looking at hieroglyphics on a piece of wood, told the Inquiry:"
That would be funny were this not so serious. This piece of work repeatedly tried to insinuate dishonesty by the husband of the SPM on no basis whatsoever despite being repeatedly challenged by the KC referring to it as the "suspicion without proof issue raising its head again?”
Ropes and lampposts are too good for these people.
Cottam has also thrown the lawyer under the bus here. This lawyer has given evidence already but will likely need to be recalled because it appears that she wrote the witness statement and/or coached the witness in a way which should get her struck off. Though my guess is that the SRA will prove even more ineffectual than the Met at nailing any of these bastards.
Forgive me for not following this story but given it's established now that those who were originally accused were innocent of stealing any money is the suggestion now that someone else did or that no money was actually stolen at all?
No money was stolen. There were no crimes. The Horizon system was spewing out nonsense figures. The prosecutions and civil actions were on the basis of nonsense figures which were wholly untrue.
The Post Office was part of public sector back then wasn't it, why are these people not being compensated - why the inquiry?
I feel a bit sorry for the Cottam woman - this was 20 years ago - presumably she is attending voluntarily as she is not being accused?
I don’t feel sorry for her. She is both very stupid and very dishonest.
If Johnson were still PM though some of the people queuing up to tell the country the truth about what a blustering, pig-ignorant, malignant sack of pus and lies the man is would still be surgically inserting themselves as far up his arse as they possibly could, as they did before. Nothing loosens the lips quite like seeing the subject of your criticism fall from power. It is not Johnson but his enablers who deserve the full measure of our scorn.
Surely Sunak is our whiniest prime minister to date. He has the tone and expression of a junior prefect saying, Look guys, I can take a joke but can I please have my lunchbox back? while the bullies throw it back and forth over his head.
@PippaCrerar NEW: Rishi Sunak will not take action to ban the pro-Palestinian march on Armistice Day.
PM: "Saturday’s planned protest is not just disrespectful but offends our heartfelt gratitude to the memory of those who gave so much so that we may live in freedom and peace today. But part of that freedom is the right to peacefully protest.
"And the test of that freedom is whether our commitment to it can survive the discomfort and frustration of those who seek to use it, even if we disagree with them. We will meet that test and remain true to our principles."
Good statement.
Agree. And it's genuinely to Sunak's credit that he's said it now. A better politician/worse person would have gone with "I wanted to stop this, but Khan refused do so. Remember the name. Khan."
And that's Sunak's Classical Tragedy. He might want to be a ruthless political shark, but in the end he can't do that, because it's not who he is. But he also doesn't have the courage to be himself- right wing but not a dick about it and knowing he is clearing the stage of rubbish for someone else's show.
Two first world complaints: 1) My daughter goes to a school nortg of where we live. Today, she has played football* for the school team against a school south of where we live. She has just passed our house, and is crawling northwards in rush hour traffic back to her school, where I am waiting to meet her and drive her back through the same traffic back to our house. A pointless two mile round trip at an average speed of less than walking pace. I understand that safesguarding, etc, but still. Grr. 2) Every replaceable part in our car is wearing out at once. I have toyed today with trading it in for an electric, which are suddenly looking much less extortionate. I reckon the calculus is close to tge point now where the increased cost of car s balanced out by the cheaper cost of running it. But it appears impossible, even in quite roomy cars, to find one with three proper rear seats like and SMax or a Sharan. Manufacturers happily make passenget five uncomfortable in order to give passengers three and four a fold down armrest. Suboptimal for a family of 5.
Sympathies. They are first world problems but, given we live in the first world, they're bloody irritating I'm sure.
Which makes me think: no matter how much this country is going down the pan, it's still a helluva lot better place to live than much of the world. And with the prospect of a proper government next year too.
@PippaCrerar NEW: Rishi Sunak will not take action to ban the pro-Palestinian march on Armistice Day.
PM: "Saturday’s planned protest is not just disrespectful but offends our heartfelt gratitude to the memory of those who gave so much so that we may live in freedom and peace today. But part of that freedom is the right to peacefully protest.
"And the test of that freedom is whether our commitment to it can survive the discomfort and frustration of those who seek to use it, even if we disagree with them. We will meet that test and remain true to our principles."
Utter drivel . The Tories are making a huge issue of this in some desperate attempt to burnish their patriot credentials ! As for principles pass me the sickbag . They departed long ago from this utter cesspit of a government.
A mixed bag of local by-elections tomorrow. There is one for Mayor of Hackney - should be a safe Lab hold but watch out for the Green vote. Lab also have a defence in Lewisham. We have a double defence in Powys for independents elected as Lib Dems. There is also a Ind defence in South Holland and Con defences in Lincolnshire and South Kesteven.
Mark Sedwill, the UK’s most senior civil servant at the start of Covid, viewed Boris Johnson’s government as “brutal and useless” and did not trust Matt Hancock, then health secretary, to be truthful, the inquiry into the pandemic has been told.
In testimony that shines yet more unforgiving light on Johnson’s Downing Street, Sedwill agreed that the PM had veered wildly in his opinions and seemed unable to manage a team, saying it was his job as cabinet secretary to help “force a decision”.
I wonder if there will ever be another Boris Johnson? - a Tory who wins the London Mayoralty twice, the first when he began as rank outsider, wins a referendum vs the establishment who were 1/4f, then a landslide at a GE, yet still have all his opponents refusing to admit he was really a threat, and kidding themselves they only wanted rid of him because he was a liability, rather than the bloke who kept beating them every time
But that's not true. There's lots of us lefties, like me, who readily admit that Boris was a threat and a formidable electoral machine who was very hard to beat. We may have been baffled by his huge appeal, but we never denied it.
And yes, we wanted rid of him because he was a winner. But we failed - it wasn't us who got rid of him. It was his own party, with ample help from Boris himself.
Actually I think there aren’t many like you who do admit it. Not on here anyway
I've written a thousand posts recognizing whilst bemoaning his spooky appeal. It was key to predicting and betting on a Con landslide in 2019. Which I did before almost anyone.
You're hamstrung by your undying love for the man and the fact you failed to see his demise coming before he got the chance to fight another GE. As I didn't tbf. I thought he'd somehow survive right up until he didn't.
Mark Sedwill, the UK’s most senior civil servant at the start of Covid, viewed Boris Johnson’s government as “brutal and useless” and did not trust Matt Hancock, then health secretary, to be truthful, the inquiry into the pandemic has been told.
In testimony that shines yet more unforgiving light on Johnson’s Downing Street, Sedwill agreed that the PM had veered wildly in his opinions and seemed unable to manage a team, saying it was his job as cabinet secretary to help “force a decision”.
I thought civil servants were supposed to be neutral.
A mixed bag of local by-elections tomorrow. There is one for Mayor of Hackney - should be a safe Lab hold but watch out for the Green vote. Lab also have a defence in Lewisham. We have a double defence in Powys for independents elected as Lib Dems. There is also a Ind defence in South Holland and Con defences in Lincolnshire and South Kesteven.
The Lewisham defence is Deptford ward. 3 councillors elected in May last year, all Labour. But the greens are quite a strong second. Pretty much a one and a half horse race but wouldn’t rule out a green gain.
Lewisham council is one of those examples of the madness of FPTP. 50 councillors out of 50 are from one party. That’s not representative or healthy.
Mark Sedwill, the UK’s most senior civil servant at the start of Covid, viewed Boris Johnson’s government as “brutal and useless” and did not trust Matt Hancock, then health secretary, to be truthful, the inquiry into the pandemic has been told.
In testimony that shines yet more unforgiving light on Johnson’s Downing Street, Sedwill agreed that the PM had veered wildly in his opinions and seemed unable to manage a team, saying it was his job as cabinet secretary to help “force a decision”.
I thought civil servants were supposed to be neutral.
They are supposed to behave neutrally but they can't help seeing an incompetent government and recognising to themselves that it is such.
'It appears that Elaine Cottam genuinely didn’t know what a witness statement was, nor had she worked out what it might be by the end of her inquiry session.
Beer’s questioning concluded shortly thereafter. He had, without being derailed, successfully demonstrated that Fujitsu had kept a serious software problem from a Subpostmaster who then lost money and subsequently her livelihood as a result of the callous ineptitude of Elaine Cottam and her colleagues at the Post Office. Having achieved this, it seems someone at the Post Office went on to produce a misleading witness statement supposedly authored by someone without the capacity or capability of being responsible for it.'
"When asked about this sentence, Cottam said she didn’t remember asking for any call logs, didn’t remember receiving them and didn’t know why she needed them, because she wouldn’t understand them. She seemed utterly mystified at the idea she might be able to offer any analysis of them, and with the air of someone looking at hieroglyphics on a piece of wood, told the Inquiry:"
That would be funny were this not so serious. This piece of work repeatedly tried to insinuate dishonesty by the husband of the SPM on no basis whatsoever despite being repeatedly challenged by the KC referring to it as the "suspicion without proof issue raising its head again?”
Ropes and lampposts are too good for these people.
Cottam has also thrown the lawyer under the bus here. This lawyer has given evidence already but will likely need to be recalled because it appears that she wrote the witness statement and/or coached the witness in a way which should get her struck off. Though my guess is that the SRA will prove even more ineffectual than the Met at nailing any of these bastards.
"The world is full of thick-as-mince, malevolent incompetents like Elaine Cottam. The problems start when they are promoted into positions of power, as the Post Office appears to have done with multiple idiots on multiple occasions. I really hope the Met Police are taking note."
The Post Office managers, and the professional people who work for them, actually seem to be even more stupid, dishonest, incompetent, and malevolent, than the Conservative Parliamentary Party (and the Labour equivalent from 2007-10). They're on a par with Doncaster Council in the 1990's, and Rotherham Council in the 00's.
I hope a lot of them get done for perjury and perverting the course of justice.
I think it's rather far-fetched to imagine that there are 'bad people' around who happen to end up in these responsible positions in the NHS, the police force, and other such public bodies. On the contrary, they are deliberately trained to be this way.
If Johnson were still PM though some of the people queuing up to tell the country the truth about what a blustering, pig-ignorant, malignant sack of pus and lies the man is would still be surgically inserting themselves as far up his arse as they possibly could, as they did before. Nothing loosens the lips quite like seeing the subject of your criticism fall from power. It is not Johnson but his enablers who deserve the full measure of our scorn.
"it is not Johnson but his enablers who deserve the full measure of our scorn"
Is that the people who tried to stop the referendum result being implemented? They're the only reason he ever became PM
I wonder if there will ever be another Boris Johnson? - a Tory who wins the London Mayoralty twice, the first when he began as rank outsider, wins a referendum vs the establishment who were 1/4f, then a landslide at a GE, yet still have all his opponents refusing to admit he was really a threat, and kidding themselves they only wanted rid of him because he was a liability, rather than the bloke who kept beating them every time
But that's not true. There's lots of us lefties, like me, who readily admit that Boris was a threat and a formidable electoral machine who was very hard to beat. We may have been baffled by his huge appeal, but we never denied it.
And yes, we wanted rid of him because he was a winner. But we failed - it wasn't us who got rid of him. It was his own party, with ample help from Boris himself.
Actually I think there aren’t many like you who do admit it. Not on here anyway
I've written a thousand posts recognizing whilst bemoaning his spooky appeal. It was key to predicting and betting on a Con landslide in 2019. Which I did before almost anyone.
You're hamstrung by your undying love for the man and the fact you failed to see his demise coming before he got the chance to fight another GE. As I didn't tbf. I thought he'd somehow survive right up until he didn't.
It really isn't undying love; I was reluctant to vote for him at GE19, and wished I didn't have to in order to Get Brexit Done
I just argued against the hordes of haters who channeled their referendum grief via non stop criticism of him, ("People of Colour/Talent" etc) and thought the ratings/polls in 2020 pointed to a likely Con Maj. I still think they did, had partygate not happened. No one knew about it then, it was a black swan that derailed my whole line of thinking
Which equates to 21 out of 78 having a positive view of Farage as future leader. Or 27%. Roughly the same as current Tory polling. So a Conservative Party led by him in opposition would be as popular as Rishi’s current one. Possibly more so if those 22% who don’t know (how can anyone not know what they think to this question??) are shy Faragistes.
I wonder if there will ever be another Boris Johnson? - a Tory who wins the London Mayoralty twice, the first when he began as rank outsider, wins a referendum vs the establishment who were 1/4f, then a landslide at a GE, yet still have all his opponents refusing to admit he was really a threat, and kidding themselves they only wanted rid of him because he was a liability, rather than the bloke who kept beating them every time
But that's not true. There's lots of us lefties, like me, who readily admit that Boris was a threat and a formidable electoral machine who was very hard to beat. We may have been baffled by his huge appeal, but we never denied it.
And yes, we wanted rid of him because he was a winner. But we failed - it wasn't us who got rid of him. It was his own party, with ample help from Boris himself.
They got rid of him as soon as they believed he would no longer be an electoral asset. And we can see that Boris Johnson agreed with them, because he was so confident in his appeal to the voters that he turned tail and fled from the prospect of fighting a by-election in his seat.
The Tories wanted the short term hit and chose to ignore the long term cold turkey. They enjoyed the hit and now deserve that they have coming to them as a consequence.
Mark Sedwill, the UK’s most senior civil servant at the start of Covid, viewed Boris Johnson’s government as “brutal and useless” and did not trust Matt Hancock, then health secretary, to be truthful, the inquiry into the pandemic has been told.
In testimony that shines yet more unforgiving light on Johnson’s Downing Street, Sedwill agreed that the PM had veered wildly in his opinions and seemed unable to manage a team, saying it was his job as cabinet secretary to help “force a decision”.
I thought civil servants were supposed to be neutral.
They are supposed to behave neutrally but they can't help seeing an incompetent government and recognising to themselves that it is such.
'It appears that Elaine Cottam genuinely didn’t know what a witness statement was, nor had she worked out what it might be by the end of her inquiry session.
Beer’s questioning concluded shortly thereafter. He had, without being derailed, successfully demonstrated that Fujitsu had kept a serious software problem from a Subpostmaster who then lost money and subsequently her livelihood as a result of the callous ineptitude of Elaine Cottam and her colleagues at the Post Office. Having achieved this, it seems someone at the Post Office went on to produce a misleading witness statement supposedly authored by someone without the capacity or capability of being responsible for it.'
"When asked about this sentence, Cottam said she didn’t remember asking for any call logs, didn’t remember receiving them and didn’t know why she needed them, because she wouldn’t understand them. She seemed utterly mystified at the idea she might be able to offer any analysis of them, and with the air of someone looking at hieroglyphics on a piece of wood, told the Inquiry:"
That would be funny were this not so serious. This piece of work repeatedly tried to insinuate dishonesty by the husband of the SPM on no basis whatsoever despite being repeatedly challenged by the KC referring to it as the "suspicion without proof issue raising its head again?”
Ropes and lampposts are too good for these people.
Cottam has also thrown the lawyer under the bus here. This lawyer has given evidence already but will likely need to be recalled because it appears that she wrote the witness statement and/or coached the witness in a way which should get her struck off. Though my guess is that the SRA will prove even more ineffectual than the Met at nailing any of these bastards.
"The world is full of thick-as-mince, malevolent incompetents like Elaine Cottam. The problems start when they are promoted into positions of power, as the Post Office appears to have done with multiple idiots on multiple occasions. I really hope the Met Police are taking note."
The Post Office managers, and the professional people who work for them, actually seem to be even more stupid, dishonest, incompetent, and malevolent, than the Conservative Parliamentary Party (and the Labour equivalent from 2007-10). They're on a par with Doncaster Council in the 1990's, and Rotherham Council in the 00's.
I hope a lot of them get done for perjury and perverting the course of justice.
I think it's rather far-fetched to imagine that there are 'bad people' around who happen to end up in these responsible positions in the NHS, the police force, and other such public bodies. On the contrary, they are deliberately trained to be this way.
Those positions attract pathological personalities. But, the training is a part of it.
'It appears that Elaine Cottam genuinely didn’t know what a witness statement was, nor had she worked out what it might be by the end of her inquiry session.
Beer’s questioning concluded shortly thereafter. He had, without being derailed, successfully demonstrated that Fujitsu had kept a serious software problem from a Subpostmaster who then lost money and subsequently her livelihood as a result of the callous ineptitude of Elaine Cottam and her colleagues at the Post Office. Having achieved this, it seems someone at the Post Office went on to produce a misleading witness statement supposedly authored by someone without the capacity or capability of being responsible for it.'
"When asked about this sentence, Cottam said she didn’t remember asking for any call logs, didn’t remember receiving them and didn’t know why she needed them, because she wouldn’t understand them. She seemed utterly mystified at the idea she might be able to offer any analysis of them, and with the air of someone looking at hieroglyphics on a piece of wood, told the Inquiry:"
That would be funny were this not so serious. This piece of work repeatedly tried to insinuate dishonesty by the husband of the SPM on no basis whatsoever despite being repeatedly challenged by the KC referring to it as the "suspicion without proof issue raising its head again?”
Ropes and lampposts are too good for these people.
Cottam has also thrown the lawyer under the bus here. This lawyer has given evidence already but will likely need to be recalled because it appears that she wrote the witness statement and/or coached the witness in a way which should get her struck off. Though my guess is that the SRA will prove even more ineffectual than the Met at nailing any of these bastards.
"The world is full of thick-as-mince, malevolent incompetents like Elaine Cottam. The problems start when they are promoted into positions of power, as the Post Office appears to have done with multiple idiots on multiple occasions. I really hope the Met Police are taking note."
The Post Office managers, and the professional people who work for them, actually seem to be even more stupid, dishonest, incompetent, and malevolent, than the Conservative Parliamentary Party (and the Labour equivalent from 2007-10). They're on a par with Doncaster Council in the 1990's, and Rotherham Council in the 00's.
I hope a lot of them get done for perjury and perverting the course of justice.
I think it's rather far-fetched to imagine that there are 'bad people' around who happen to end up in these responsible positions in the NHS, the police force, and other such public bodies. On the contrary, they are deliberately trained to be this way.
Oh? Perhaps you could point us to the relevant manuals and training courses?
'It appears that Elaine Cottam genuinely didn’t know what a witness statement was, nor had she worked out what it might be by the end of her inquiry session.
Beer’s questioning concluded shortly thereafter. He had, without being derailed, successfully demonstrated that Fujitsu had kept a serious software problem from a Subpostmaster who then lost money and subsequently her livelihood as a result of the callous ineptitude of Elaine Cottam and her colleagues at the Post Office. Having achieved this, it seems someone at the Post Office went on to produce a misleading witness statement supposedly authored by someone without the capacity or capability of being responsible for it.'
"When asked about this sentence, Cottam said she didn’t remember asking for any call logs, didn’t remember receiving them and didn’t know why she needed them, because she wouldn’t understand them. She seemed utterly mystified at the idea she might be able to offer any analysis of them, and with the air of someone looking at hieroglyphics on a piece of wood, told the Inquiry:"
That would be funny were this not so serious. This piece of work repeatedly tried to insinuate dishonesty by the husband of the SPM on no basis whatsoever despite being repeatedly challenged by the KC referring to it as the "suspicion without proof issue raising its head again?”
Ropes and lampposts are too good for these people.
Cottam has also thrown the lawyer under the bus here. This lawyer has given evidence already but will likely need to be recalled because it appears that she wrote the witness statement and/or coached the witness in a way which should get her struck off. Though my guess is that the SRA will prove even more ineffectual than the Met at nailing any of these bastards.
"The world is full of thick-as-mince, malevolent incompetents like Elaine Cottam. The problems start when they are promoted into positions of power, as the Post Office appears to have done with multiple idiots on multiple occasions. I really hope the Met Police are taking note."
The Post Office managers, and the professional people who work for them, actually seem to be even more stupid, dishonest, incompetent, and malevolent, than the Conservative Parliamentary Party (and the Labour equivalent from 2007-10). They're on a par with Doncaster Council in the 1990's, and Rotherham Council in the 00's.
I hope a lot of them get done for perjury and perverting the course of justice.
I think it's rather far-fetched to imagine that there are 'bad people' around who happen to end up in these responsible positions in the NHS, the police force, and other such public bodies. On the contrary, they are deliberately trained to be this way.
It's not a conspiracy, it's a cock-up (management ineptitude).
And it's not confined to public bodies - I saw it in banks and insurance companies I worked for - and the Post Office is a private company of course.
If Johnson were still PM though some of the people queuing up to tell the country the truth about what a blustering, pig-ignorant, malignant sack of pus and lies the man is would still be surgically inserting themselves as far up his arse as they possibly could, as they did before. Nothing loosens the lips quite like seeing the subject of your criticism fall from power. It is not Johnson but his enablers who deserve the full measure of our scorn.
"it is not Johnson but his enablers who deserve the full measure of our scorn"
Is that the people who tried to stop the referendum result being implemented? They're the only reason he ever became PM
No, he became leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister because, in the summer of 2019, polling showed he was the only one of the Conservative leadership contenders capable of winning an election and stopping votes going to Farage's Brexit Party.
There was some ComRes polling in June 2019 which showed that and from then on his ascent to No.10 was inevitable. Once in office, and you're quite right, the more the opposition tried to frustrate the implementation of Brexit, the higher the Conservative poll rating went.
Comments
On present polling the Tories are polling about 5% less under Sunak on average than the Conservatives were in the week before Boris resigned last summer. Under Truss in her last week as PM the Conservatives were polling about 10% worse than they were when Boris resigned. Sunak is only an improvement on Truss electorally not Boris, even if arguably a more competent PM than both
The Post Office managers, and the professional people who work for them, actually seem to be even more stupid, dishonest, incompetent, and malevolent, than the Conservative Parliamentary Party (and the Labour equivalent from 2007-10). They're on a par with Doncaster Council in the 1990's, and Rotherham Council in the 00's.
I hope a lot of them get done for perjury and perverting the course of justice.
“Delicious”, as some might say!
Did NOT turn out that way when the votes were counted.
Of course, anyone who'd actually bothered to follow this race would have know that there were LOCAL factors at play. Or understood that in USA state executive races do NOT always mirror trends in presidential, congressional or legislative voting.
For example, election of Mitt Romney, Charlie Baker and other Republicans in otherwise Blue States.
AND the re-election of Democratic incumbent Andy Beshear in Kentucky yesterday.
Ukraine is carrying out a series of cross-river operations to harass Russian forces and to prevent Russian artillery from firing at civilians in Kherson City and other right-bank settlements. These have been quite successful, but it's being hyped up by Russian milibloggers who like to criticise senior officers in the Russian military, and by excitable observers on the Ukrainian side.
River crossings have regularly been complete failures and an utter shambles on both sides, even relatively small-scale ones. I think it's complete fantasy to think that there's even a remote chance of Ukraine conducting a major cross-Dnipro operation.
It's a manifestation of the wider problem with Boris. You can't have the attractive bits (the way with words, the optimism, the ability to attract people) without the utterly toxic bits (the ability to say what his audience wants to hear, even if it's flat out untrue.) They're two sides of the same coin/con.
Would Alex Johnson (all Boris's brain, none of his dishonesty) have made Brexit happen? Got to No 10? I rather doubt it.
Top table 7 July 2022, bottom 1 November 2023
So a reduction in 10 for conservative retainers, an increase of 10 for Reform switchers, a reduction of 5 for Lib Dem switchers and an increase of 5 of don't knows.
Before he left he was, rightly, abandoned by all but the groupies. This had nothing to do with anti Tories
The idea that you are liable for Tax d'Habitation for the entire year because you had the right to occupy the property on January 1st is very ... French.
https://www.french-property.com/guides/france/finance-taxation/taxation/local-property-taxes
The Victor looked really evil. The Vulcan looked like science fiction, the Valiant just looked like a plane, but the Victor looked like a mad surgeon with a scalpel.
TSE is of course in the latter category
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67355227
So you can't completely divorce last night's results from the 2024 presidential election
https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/630222541575361096/
*Possibly called Chaff by Americanisers.
As for the Vulcan, I've been in the Museum of Flight one (the Scottish national museum, near Edinburgh, not the Seattle one). Not as compact as a fighter, but a surprisingly snug pilot's place with a fighter joystick. Not the airliner style wheel.
Fact is.
It would be very difficult to do any worse than the last few years.
"Peace is impossible while Vladimir Putin denies Ukraine’s right to exist"
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/peace-is-impossible-while-vladimir-putin-denies-ukraines-right-to-exist/
Of course, the same thing can be said for another trouble spit: Peace is impossible while Hamas denies Israel's right to exist...
Would also mean you haven't voted Tory at a general election since 2015, so are clearly no longer a PB Tory on any definition
"Enemy channels report a significant presence of Ukrainian air defense on the right Bank of the Dnipro, which has effectively closed the skies for the Russian air force over Krynky."
https://twitter.com/astraiaintel/status/1722195222623555846
Believe that or not...
What are the odds that someone one here has an Ordinary bicycle?
What are the odds that they ride it?
Very good leader: 8% (Con 2019 voter 18%)
Fairly good leader: 13% (Con 23%)
Fairly bad leader: 12% (Con 14%)
Very bad leader: 45% (Con 27%)
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1722298400798818624
I feel a bit sorry for the Cottam woman - this was 20 years ago - presumably she is attending voluntarily as she is not being accused?
Only way it could indirectly happen is if ReformUK ever won more votes and seats than the Tories and Farage's party did a takeover of the Tories (similar to what happened in Canada after their Tories heavy defeat in 1993 when the Tory Progressive Conservatives eventually ended up merging with the Canadian Alliance, the successor of the populist right Reform party to form today's Conservative Party of Canada)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bi2_2ogPMvo
There's a webinar being put on by Wheels for Wellbeing at 6pm this evening on influencing your Local Councillor about removing anti=wheelchair / anti-cycling barriers from footpaths and bridleways at 6 this evening:
https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/wheels-for-wellbeing-x-hftf-training-tickets-727361236037
Have a good evening all.
And on pickled beetroot, I don't want to come over all SeanT about it, but this stuff is amazing...
https://www.londonfermentary.com/shop-1/spicybeetkraut
1) My daughter goes to a school nortg of where we live. Today, she has played football* for the school team against a school south of where we live. She has just passed our house, and is crawling northwards in rush hour traffic back to her school, where I am waiting to meet her and drive her back through the same traffic back to our house. A pointless two mile round trip at an average speed of less than walking pace. I understand that safesguarding, etc, but still. Grr.
2) Every replaceable part in our car is wearing out at once. I have toyed today with trading it in for an electric, which are suddenly looking much less extortionate. I reckon the calculus is close to tge point now where the increased cost of car s balanced out by the cheaper cost of running it. But it appears impossible, even in quite roomy cars, to find one with three proper rear seats like and SMax or a Sharan. Manufacturers happily make passenget five uncomfortable in order to give passengers three and four a fold down armrest. Suboptimal for a family of 5.
(Sunil or PtP might remember there used to be cattle roaming round Wanstead pre-foot and mouth.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bxAf0pC3vqg
The polls wouldn't be as bad though - Truss would never have been PM, interest rates would probably not be as high, mortgages would be easier to get, plus he had residual loyalty from people who voted him in as PM that Truss and Sunak didn't and don't, as well as the humongous lead on personality over Sir Keir that would probably see him claw back a lot of votes during the campaign
He would have lost a lot of the anti Corbyn, Get Brexit Done votes so, on balance, I think he would probably have sneaked a small majority
There is also greater ideological difference now between Cameroon Tories and the ERG Tory right now than between the ERG and RefUK, UKIP and working class ex Labour Leave voters in the redwall.
PR would certainly bring something of a realignment
NEW: Rishi Sunak will not take action to ban the pro-Palestinian march on Armistice Day.
PM: "Saturday’s planned protest is not just disrespectful but offends our heartfelt gratitude to the memory of those who gave so much so that we may live in freedom and peace today. But part of that freedom is the right to peacefully protest.
"And the test of that freedom is whether our commitment to it can survive the discomfort and frustration of those who seek to use it, even if we disagree with them. We will meet that test and remain true to our principles."
By "progressive Labour" I meant Corbynites, not that they existed then
By "Old Labour" I meant RedWall types, who also didnt exist I suppose
I'm am (and I think WfW will be) referring to where Rights of Way exist - hence the pairs wheelchairs / footpaths and cycles / bridleways, rather than the footway next to the street/road.
I'm am (and I think WfW will be) referring to unlawful access barriers where Rights of Way exist - hence the pairs wheelchairs / footpaths and cycles / bridleways, rather than the footway which is part of the street/road.
I think the conversation will be around persuading Councillors to embrace law.
Very happy to do a header explaining the legalities, but it might put PB to sleep !
📝 Today's Sensemaker...
A columnist for Rishi Sunak’s local news website in Yorkshire recently called the British prime minister “quietly incompetent”.
If that sticks, his first King’s Speech will be his last.
Hopefully the lamb broth is still bubbling away nicely.
Surely Sunak is our whiniest prime minister to date. He has the tone and expression of a junior prefect saying, Look guys, I can take a joke but can I please have my lunchbox back? while the bullies throw it back and forth over his head.
That's almost as embarrassing as watching a senior OFSTED official trying to explain the basic tenets of safeguarding.
I do hope these people are forced to face the consequences of their actions.
Thanks for sharing.
And that's Sunak's Classical Tragedy. He might want to be a ruthless political shark, but in the end he can't do that, because it's not who he is. But he also doesn't have the courage to be himself- right wing but not a dick about it and knowing he is clearing the stage of rubbish for someone else's show.
I wish I could do a Nicola Sturgeon on my memories of him as PM.
Disenchantment reigns in our age of modernity
By Mary Harrington"
https://unherd.com/2023/11/why-the-fairies-disappeared/
Which makes me think: no matter how much this country is going down the pan, it's still a helluva lot better place to live than much of the world. And with the prospect of a proper government next year too.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12725433/Democrat-victories-elections-analysis-Biden-Trump-shock-ANDREW-NEIL.html
https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/11/07/donald-trump-looks-terrifyingly-electable
In testimony that shines yet more unforgiving light on Johnson’s Downing Street, Sedwill agreed that the PM had veered wildly in his opinions and seemed unable to manage a team, saying it was his job as cabinet secretary to help “force a decision”.
You're hamstrung by your undying love for the man and the fact you failed to see his demise coming before he got the chance to fight another GE. As I didn't tbf. I thought he'd somehow survive right up until he didn't.
Lewisham council is one of those examples of the madness of FPTP. 50 councillors out of 50 are from one party. That’s not representative or healthy.
Is that the people who tried to stop the referendum result being implemented? They're the only reason he ever became PM
A year from the 2024 election, both parties have turf to defend
https://rollcall.com/2023/11/07/house-members-from-nc-ny-dominate-most-vulnerable-list/
SSI - Check out the nifty pic of Lauren Boebert with (yet another) recent hot date!
I just argued against the hordes of haters who channeled their referendum grief via non stop criticism of him, ("People of Colour/Talent" etc) and thought the ratings/polls in 2020 pointed to a likely Con Maj. I still think they did, had partygate not happened. No one knew about it then, it was a black swan that derailed my whole line of thinking
Very good leader: 8% (Con 2019 voter 18%)
Fairly good leader: 13% (Con 23%)
Fairly bad leader: 12% (Con 14%)
Very bad leader: 45% (Con 27%)
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
https://x.com/yougov/status/1722298400798818624?s=46
Which equates to 21 out of 78 having a positive view of Farage as future leader. Or 27%. Roughly the same as current Tory polling. So a Conservative Party led by him in opposition would be as popular as Rishi’s current one. Possibly more so if those 22% who don’t know (how can anyone not know what they think to this question??) are shy Faragistes.
And it's not confined to public bodies - I saw it in banks and insurance companies I worked for - and the Post Office is a private company of course.
There was some ComRes polling in June 2019 which showed that and from then on his ascent to No.10 was inevitable. Once in office, and you're quite right, the more the opposition tried to frustrate the implementation of Brexit, the higher the Conservative poll rating went.