One of the more surprising findings from that poll is that, in some ways, Harris is polling better than Biden, mainly because she does better amongst younger voters. In some ways, that makes a tricky choice for the Dems - do they push Harris to the fore to energise younger voters or does that risk reminding voters she is a heartbeat away from the Presidency?
"Voters under 30 favor Mr. Biden by only a single percentage point, his lead among Hispanic voters is down to single digits and his advantage in urban areas is half of Mr. Trump’s edge in rural regions. And while women still favored Mr. Biden, men preferred Mr. Trump by twice as large a margin, reversing the gender advantage that had fueled so many Democratic gains in recent years."
Wisconsin surprised me in the sense that, if Biden was doing so badly in states like PA and MI, you would have thought WI would be showing Trump in a lead.
I think those polls have two different sets of results: really great numbers for Trump in Arizona and Nevada (and let's not forget Trump lost NV in 2016), and decent - but not amazing - numbers for him the rustbelt.
In the sunbelt, Trump is polling 50%, and it's difficult to lose from there. In the rustbelt, it's 47-48%, and if the undecideds break 2:1 for the incumbent, then those are some very close races.
Personal anecdote - this is stopping me spending money on big-ticket items in the UK at the moment.
Taxes should be low, flat and evenly applied.
If tourists buy something, they should pay the same taxes as anyone else.
When I go to the other side of the Atlantic I don't get a refund on any sales taxes levied there.
The UK is a major hub for tourists annually, of course they should be paying taxes. Better than we do.
That's much too black and white. Many countries DO issue tax refunds to tourists. Many do not. Overseas experience doesn't give us a clear guide here. And low and uniform taxes are fine internally, because it helps economic activity here, but externally those advantages don't really apply.
I know nuanced discussions about economic analysis don't fit well on internet discussion forums. But the guiding principle here should be whether the country as a whole (not just the government) is better or worse off for having this system in place. Does the revenue to shopkeepers, retailers, etc. lost from it offset the hit to the government? I haven't looked at the analysis so I'm not sure, and such studies are pretty sketchy anyway, but if we can get more money off foreigners in this instance we should do so.
That's too narrow a way of looking at it.
The fairness / social justice factor needs to be considered as well.
Even if it resulted in enough extra money for the purveyors of overpriced consumer tat to offset the loss in VAT that wouldn't make up for the aggravation felt by those people now having to pay a tax which rich foreigners did not have to.
I think this is my view too.
Firstly, let's not forget that plenty of major tourist destinations (like New York) offer no such benefits, and still attract the tourists.
Secondly, the basic economics of supply and demand means that a subsidy for tourists inherently means higher prices for locals. At its simplest, you are shifting the demand curve to the right.
Anyone think Biden might get displaced by Kennedy as the main challenger to Trump?
I think it's unlikely, because I think RFK draws at least as much - and possibly more - from Trump's voter base. How many big vaccine sceptics currently vote Biden?
I suspect that RFK will fizzle, and not make the debates.
However, it is not impossible that he makes 20% in the polling (he is after all currently polling at around that level), in which case all bets are off.
Despite being batshit crazy, let's not forget that RFK is younger, fitter and more articulate than either Trump or Biden.
Anyone think Biden might get displaced by Kennedy as the main challenger to Trump?
I think it's unlikely, because I think RFK draws at least as much - and possibly more - from Trump's voter base. How many big vaccine sceptics currently vote Biden?
I suspect that RFK will fizzle, and not make the debates.
However, it is not impossible that he makes 20% in the polling (he is after all currently polling at around that level), in which case all bets are off.
Despite being batshit crazy, let's not forget that RFK is younger, fitter and more articulate than either Trump or Biden.
In American politics being Batshit crazy is often an electoral advantage. Truth and rationality are so restricting.
Anyone think Biden might get displaced by Kennedy as the main challenger to Trump?
I think it's unlikely, because I think RFK draws at least as much - and possibly more - from Trump's voter base. How many big vaccine sceptics currently vote Biden?
I suspect that RFK will fizzle, and not make the debates.
However, it is not impossible that he makes 20% in the polling (he is after all currently polling at around that level), in which case all bets are off.
Despite being batshit crazy, let's not forget that RFK is younger, fitter and more articulate than either Trump or Biden.
He is but an issue to consider is his voice which is very strangulated because of a medical condition. That means he comes across sounding not that great. Unfair perhaps but that counts.
Personally, I think a bigger threat to Biden might be West. If RFK stands, as you say, he could eat into Trump's base more than Biden's but West would be likely to attract younger, more liberal voters.
Personal anecdote - this is stopping me spending money on big-ticket items in the UK at the moment.
Taxes should be low, flat and evenly applied.
If tourists buy something, they should pay the same taxes as anyone else.
When I go to the other side of the Atlantic I don't get a refund on any sales taxes levied there.
The UK is a major hub for tourists annually, of course they should be paying taxes. Better than we do.
That's much too black and white. Many countries DO issue tax refunds to tourists. Many do not. Overseas experience doesn't give us a clear guide here. And low and uniform taxes are fine internally, because it helps economic activity here, but externally those advantages don't really apply.
I know nuanced discussions about economic analysis don't fit well on internet discussion forums. But the guiding principle here should be whether the country as a whole (not just the government) is better or worse off for having this system in place. Does the revenue to shopkeepers, retailers, etc. lost from it offset the hit to the government? I haven't looked at the analysis so I'm not sure, and such studies are pretty sketchy anyway, but if we can get more money off foreigners in this instance we should do so.
That's too narrow a way of looking at it.
The fairness / social justice factor needs to be considered as well.
Even if it resulted in enough extra money for the purveyors of overpriced consumer tat to offset the loss in VAT that wouldn't make up for the aggravation felt by those people now having to pay a tax which rich foreigners did not have to.
So we should decide tax policy on the basis of whether people can or can't get whipped up over it on social media? Christ alive.
Wisconsin surprised me in the sense that, if Biden was doing so badly in states like PA and MI, you would have thought WI would be showing Trump in a lead.
I think those polls have two different sets of results: really great numbers for Trump in Arizona and Nevada (and let's not forget Trump lost NV in 2016), and decent - but not amazing - numbers for him the rustbelt.
In the sunbelt, Trump is polling 50%, and it's difficult to lose from there. In the rustbelt, it's 47-48%, and if the undecideds break 2:1 for the incumbent, then those are some very close races.
The Sunbelt polling would be consistent with immigration being a major issue. It would be interesting if there was some polling from New Mexico (it will not be in play but, if there is a similar swing, it suggests Sun Belt Hispanics are swinging against the Democrats.
Out of the Rustbelt states, maybe the state Biden will have a major issue in if the Gaza problems continue is Michigan given the large-ish Arab population. However, in all three, he needs the Black votes from the major conurbations to win. The signs that Trump is eroding into the African American vote should sound alarm bells.
Personal anecdote - this is stopping me spending money on big-ticket items in the UK at the moment.
Taxes should be low, flat and evenly applied.
If tourists buy something, they should pay the same taxes as anyone else.
When I go to the other side of the Atlantic I don't get a refund on any sales taxes levied there.
The UK is a major hub for tourists annually, of course they should be paying taxes. Better than we do.
That's much too black and white. Many countries DO issue tax refunds to tourists. Many do not. Overseas experience doesn't give us a clear guide here. And low and uniform taxes are fine internally, because it helps economic activity here, but externally those advantages don't really apply.
I know nuanced discussions about economic analysis don't fit well on internet discussion forums. But the guiding principle here should be whether the country as a whole (not just the government) is better or worse off for having this system in place. Does the revenue to shopkeepers, retailers, etc. lost from it offset the hit to the government? I haven't looked at the analysis so I'm not sure, and such studies are pretty sketchy anyway, but if we can get more money off foreigners in this instance we should do so.
That's too narrow a way of looking at it.
The fairness / social justice factor needs to be considered as well.
Even if it resulted in enough extra money for the purveyors of overpriced consumer tat to offset the loss in VAT that wouldn't make up for the aggravation felt by those people now having to pay a tax which rich foreigners did not have to.
Personally I see nothing fair or just about increasing unemployment and reducing economic growth just to benefit French and German producers and retailers of overpriced tat instead of our own. The Frogs and the Krauts are as always doubtless delighted by our sudden wish to shoot ourselves in the foot - that should tell us something by itself.
Now, unlike many pb-ers I admire Elon. He does amazing things. But my God, he is bad at names
Grok????
It's just a fork of Facebook's Llama model.
Can’t tell if that’s a joke or actual insight
If you read the Reddit AI and LLM communities, they have tested it, and it seems to perform *extremely* similarly to Llama 2, except with (a) real time Twitter access and (b) a bit of a sense of humor.
Building an LLM based on Llama is not such an impressive achievement as doing one from scratch.
Wisconsin surprised me in the sense that, if Biden was doing so badly in states like PA and MI, you would have thought WI would be showing Trump in a lead.
I think those polls have two different sets of results: really great numbers for Trump in Arizona and Nevada (and let's not forget Trump lost NV in 2016), and decent - but not amazing - numbers for him the rustbelt.
In the sunbelt, Trump is polling 50%, and it's difficult to lose from there. In the rustbelt, it's 47-48%, and if the undecideds break 2:1 for the incumbent, then those are some very close races.
The Sunbelt polling would be consistent with immigration being a major issue. It would be interesting if there was some polling from New Mexico (it will not be in play but, if there is a similar swing, it suggests Sun Belt Hispanics are swinging against the Democrats.
Out of the Rustbelt states, maybe the state Biden will have a major issue in if the Gaza problems continue is Michigan given the large-ish Arab population. However, in all three, he needs the Black votes from the major conurbations to win. The signs that Trump is eroding into the African American vote should sound alarm bells.
Actually, I think the issue is different: I think it's interest rates and housing.
In the sunbelt, people have spent a lot of money on their properties. Everyone is in work, but they are financially stretched, with a lot of their income going out on their mortgages. With interest rates having shot up, housing markets have gone to hell, some people are facing moving onto adjustable rates soon, and no-one can move house. High interest rates = people feeling poorer and more financially insecure.
In the rustbelt, property prices haven't moved much. People don't spend anywhere near as much money on housing. In those states, insecurity is to do with job availability; which is not bad, but not amazing either.
Immigration is - I'm sure - a factor. But not a dominant one. And I think you can see that in last year's midterms. where the Republicans did very poorly in the sunbelt). They happened at a time when interest rates were a lot lower, but immigration was pretty much as it is now.
Anyone think Biden might get displaced by Kennedy as the main challenger to Trump?
0%
How many on left hand side of politics are yearning for a vaccine denying conspiracy theorist? And that’s just his presentable views.
There is time for events to align with his views. A doctor friend recently reported to me that her and most of her colleagues now privately shy away from recommending the vaccine to all but the elderly, because they are anecdotally seeing odd incidences of cancer that have left them scratching their heads. To the extent that they are also busily reminding under 40s of the early symptoms of cancer even in social settings.
Now perhaps there is nothing to this. But there is a non zero chance that rfk and his ilk will be able to claim the “I told you so” hill.
Anyone think Biden might get displaced by Kennedy as the main challenger to Trump?
0%
How many on left hand side of politics are yearning for a vaccine denying conspiracy theorist? And that’s just his presentable views.
There is time for events to align with his views. A doctor friend recently reported to me that her and most of her colleagues now privately shy away from recommending the vaccine to all but the elderly, because they are anecdotally seeing odd incidences of cancer that have left them scratching their heads. To the extent that they are also busily reminding under 40s of the early symptoms of cancer even in social settings.
Now perhaps there is nothing to this. But there is a non zero chance that rfk and his ilk will be able to claim the “I told you so” hill.
I’d give more credence to increased cancer incidence post vaccine if there was a plausible theory to explain how it might occur, over say the immune response to covid itself, which is what the vaccines mimic. That attitude to the vaccine does not match my experience.
Anyone think Biden might get displaced by Kennedy as the main challenger to Trump?
I think it's unlikely, because I think RFK draws at least as much - and possibly more - from Trump's voter base. How many big vaccine sceptics currently vote Biden?
I suspect that RFK will fizzle, and not make the debates.
However, it is not impossible that he makes 20% in the polling (he is after all currently polling at around that level), in which case all bets are off.
Despite being batshit crazy, let's not forget that RFK is younger, fitter and more articulate than either Trump or Biden.
In American politics being Batshit crazy is often an electoral advantage. Truth and rationality are so restricting.
Time and time again I lose money betting on US politics because I take a British attitude to it.
Sounds stupid when you put it like that but it's very hard to get inside the minds of some American voters.
Anyone think Biden might get displaced by Kennedy as the main challenger to Trump?
I think it's unlikely, because I think RFK draws at least as much - and possibly more - from Trump's voter base. How many big vaccine sceptics currently vote Biden?
I suspect that RFK will fizzle, and not make the debates.
However, it is not impossible that he makes 20% in the polling (he is after all currently polling at around that level), in which case all bets are off.
Despite being batshit crazy, let's not forget that RFK is younger, fitter and more articulate than either Trump or Biden.
In American politics being Batshit crazy is often an electoral advantage. Truth and rationality are so restricting.
Time and time again I lose money betting on US politics because I take a British attitude to it.
Sounds stupid when you put it like that but it's very hard to get inside the minds of some American voters.
Anyone think Biden might get displaced by Kennedy as the main challenger to Trump?
I think it's unlikely, because I think RFK draws at least as much - and possibly more - from Trump's voter base. How many big vaccine sceptics currently vote Biden?
I suspect that RFK will fizzle, and not make the debates.
However, it is not impossible that he makes 20% in the polling (he is after all currently polling at around that level), in which case all bets are off.
Despite being batshit crazy, let's not forget that RFK is younger, fitter and more articulate than either Trump or Biden.
In American politics being Batshit crazy is often an electoral advantage. Truth and rationality are so restricting.
Time and time again I lose money betting on US politics because I take a British attitude to it.
Sounds stupid when you put it like that but it's very hard to get inside the minds of some American voters.
Yes. I did make money on Trump vs Clinton, but generally stay clear of betting substantially on US politics. Too much weird stuff goes on both in campaigning and gerrymandering as well as generalised skullduggery.
If Trump does blow it, it will because he is likely to turn the whole campaign into a long whine of victimhood all about himself. That plays well to the core at present, but at some point voters are likely to ask "what is he going to do for me and my family?".
Personal anecdote - this is stopping me spending money on big-ticket items in the UK at the moment.
Taxes should be low, flat and evenly applied.
If tourists buy something, they should pay the same taxes as anyone else.
When I go to the other side of the Atlantic I don't get a refund on any sales taxes levied there.
The UK is a major hub for tourists annually, of course they should be paying taxes. Better than we do.
That's much too black and white. Many countries DO issue tax refunds to tourists. Many do not. Overseas experience doesn't give us a clear guide here. And low and uniform taxes are fine internally, because it helps economic activity here, but externally those advantages don't really apply.
I know nuanced discussions about economic analysis don't fit well on internet discussion forums. But the guiding principle here should be whether the country as a whole (not just the government) is better or worse off for having this system in place. Does the revenue to shopkeepers, retailers, etc. lost from it offset the hit to the government? I haven't looked at the analysis so I'm not sure, and such studies are pretty sketchy anyway, but if we can get more money off foreigners in this instance we should do so.
That's too narrow a way of looking at it.
The fairness / social justice factor needs to be considered as well.
Even if it resulted in enough extra money for the purveyors of overpriced consumer tat to offset the loss in VAT that wouldn't make up for the aggravation felt by those people now having to pay a tax which rich foreigners did not have to.
I think this is my view too.
Firstly, let's not forget that plenty of major tourist destinations (like New York) offer no such benefits, and still attract the tourists.
Secondly, the basic economics of supply and demand means that a subsidy for tourists inherently means higher prices for locals. At its simplest, you are shifting the demand curve to the right.
Aren't a lot of those luxury products imports, by definition, given the brands in question?
Anyone think Biden might get displaced by Kennedy as the main challenger to Trump?
0%
How many on left hand side of politics are yearning for a vaccine denying conspiracy theorist? And that’s just his presentable views.
There is time for events to align with his views. A doctor friend recently reported to me that her and most of her colleagues now privately shy away from recommending the vaccine to all but the elderly, because they are anecdotally seeing odd incidences of cancer that have left them scratching their heads. To the extent that they are also busily reminding under 40s of the early symptoms of cancer even in social settings.
Now perhaps there is nothing to this. But there is a non zero chance that rfk and his ilk will be able to claim the “I told you so” hill.
What with blowing a hairdryer up your nose the other day and this, this site is becoming a conspiracy web site. I thought people who posted here had more sense.
Anyone think Biden might get displaced by Kennedy as the main challenger to Trump?
0%
How many on left hand side of politics are yearning for a vaccine denying conspiracy theorist? And that’s just his presentable views.
There is time for events to align with his views. A doctor friend recently reported to me that her and most of her colleagues now privately shy away from recommending the vaccine to all but the elderly, because they are anecdotally seeing odd incidences of cancer that have left them scratching their heads. To the extent that they are also busily reminding under 40s of the early symptoms of cancer even in social settings.
Now perhaps there is nothing to this. But there is a non zero chance that rfk and his ilk will be able to claim the “I told you so” hill.
What with blowing a hairdryer up your nose the other day and this, this site is becoming a conspiracy web site. I thought people who posted here had more sense.
Half the people posting here vote the wrong way every election.
Not much firework action round here tonight. I guess the big council and corporate displays are a thing of the past (or have moved to New Year's Eve) and half the locals save them for Diwali.
Anyone think Biden might get displaced by Kennedy as the main challenger to Trump?
0%
How many on left hand side of politics are yearning for a vaccine denying conspiracy theorist? And that’s just his presentable views.
There is time for events to align with his views. A doctor friend recently reported to me that her and most of her colleagues now privately shy away from recommending the vaccine to all but the elderly, because they are anecdotally seeing odd incidences of cancer that have left them scratching their heads. To the extent that they are also busily reminding under 40s of the early symptoms of cancer even in social settings.
Now perhaps there is nothing to this. But there is a non zero chance that rfk and his ilk will be able to claim the “I told you so” hill.
What with blowing a hairdryer up your nose the other day and this, this site is becoming a conspiracy web site. I thought people who posted here had more sense.
Half the people posting here vote the wrong way every election.
There is voting for the wrong party and then there is sticking a hairdryer up your nose. I'm trying to work out which is worse.
Anyone think Biden might get displaced by Kennedy as the main challenger to Trump?
0%
How many on left hand side of politics are yearning for a vaccine denying conspiracy theorist? And that’s just his presentable views.
There is time for events to align with his views. A doctor friend recently reported to me that her and most of her colleagues now privately shy away from recommending the vaccine to all but the elderly, because they are anecdotally seeing odd incidences of cancer that have left them scratching their heads. To the extent that they are also busily reminding under 40s of the early symptoms of cancer even in social settings.
Now perhaps there is nothing to this. But there is a non zero chance that rfk and his ilk will be able to claim the “I told you so” hill.
What with blowing a hairdryer up your nose the other day and this, this site is becoming a conspiracy web site. I thought people who posted here had more sense.
Half the people posting here vote the wrong way every election.
There is voting for the wrong party and then there is sticking a hairdryer up your nose. I'm trying to work out which is worse.
Anyone think Biden might get displaced by Kennedy as the main challenger to Trump?
0%
How many on left hand side of politics are yearning for a vaccine denying conspiracy theorist? And that’s just his presentable views.
There is time for events to align with his views. A doctor friend recently reported to me that her and most of her colleagues now privately shy away from recommending the vaccine to all but the elderly, because they are anecdotally seeing odd incidences of cancer that have left them scratching their heads. To the extent that they are also busily reminding under 40s of the early symptoms of cancer even in social settings.
Now perhaps there is nothing to this. But there is a non zero chance that rfk and his ilk will be able to claim the “I told you so” hill.
What with blowing a hairdryer up your nose the other day and this, this site is becoming a conspiracy web site. I thought people who posted here had more sense.
There are publications showing that the rate of Cancer diagnosis dropped typically between 15-20% in 2020, with a rebound to normal rates afterwards. It was particularly in ones that get screened for such as breast and bowel, so thought to be due to less screening activity. If so one would expect a few years of late presentation afterwards.
This of course is quite a different concept to vaccine or covid induced cancers.
We used to worry about a Russian amphibious assault on Odesa, but now Ukraine launches special forces raids to destroy Russia's air defences in Crimea. The Ukrainians hit a new Russian missile ship in Kerch in the last couple of days.
There's so much emphasis on the land front line that the successes Ukraine has had on the sea and in the air (destroying a number of Russian aircraft in Russian airbases) are overlooked.
Russia withdrew from the Grain deal, but Ukraine has managed to export grain by sea regardless. The Russians are unable to even maintain a blockade of civilian shipping in the Black Sea.
The signs of waning Russian power are all around. I am very optimistic that Ukraine will emerge victorious if the West does not talk itself into defeat.
Anyone think Biden might get displaced by Kennedy as the main challenger to Trump?
0%
How many on left hand side of politics are yearning for a vaccine denying conspiracy theorist? And that’s just his presentable views.
There is time for events to align with his views. A doctor friend recently reported to me that her and most of her colleagues now privately shy away from recommending the vaccine to all but the elderly, because they are anecdotally seeing odd incidences of cancer that have left them scratching their heads. To the extent that they are also busily reminding under 40s of the early symptoms of cancer even in social settings.
Now perhaps there is nothing to this. But there is a non zero chance that rfk and his ilk will be able to claim the “I told you so” hill.
I’d give more credence to increased cancer incidence post vaccine if there was a plausible theory to explain how it might occur, over say the immune response to covid itself, which is what the vaccines mimic. That attitude to the vaccine does not match my experience.
Or if cancer rates had increased. Which they haven’t.
Anyone think Biden might get displaced by Kennedy as the main challenger to Trump?
0%
How many on left hand side of politics are yearning for a vaccine denying conspiracy theorist? And that’s just his presentable views.
There is time for events to align with his views. A doctor friend recently reported to me that her and most of her colleagues now privately shy away from recommending the vaccine to all but the elderly, because they are anecdotally seeing odd incidences of cancer that have left them scratching their heads. To the extent that they are also busily reminding under 40s of the early symptoms of cancer even in social settings.
Now perhaps there is nothing to this. But there is a non zero chance that rfk and his ilk will be able to claim the “I told you so” hill.
What with blowing a hairdryer up your nose the other day and this, this site is becoming a conspiracy web site. I thought people who posted here had more sense.
Half the people posting here vote the wrong way every election.
There is voting for the wrong party and then there is sticking a hairdryer up your nose. I'm trying to work out which is worse.
We used to worry about a Russian amphibious assault on Odesa, but now Ukraine launches special forces raids to destroy Russia's air defences in Crimea. The Ukrainians hit a new Russian missile ship in Kerch in the last couple of days.
There's so much emphasis on the land front line that the successes Ukraine has had on the sea and in the air (destroying a number of Russian aircraft in Russian airbases) are overlooked.
Russia withdrew from the Grain deal, but Ukraine has managed to export grain by sea regardless. The Russians are unable to even maintain a blockade of civilian shipping in the Black Sea.
The signs of waning Russian power are all around. I am very optimistic that Ukraine will emerge victorious if the West does not talk itself into defeat.
I think that is true, but the 5 month offensive has led to a gain of territory more akin to Western Front battles in WW1 than anything we saw in 2022. It looks as if there will be attrition and stalemate for some time. Drones seem to have nullified armoured advances by both reconnaissance and direct attack.
The other notable Ukranian success is in counter-battery fire on Russian artillery. The rate of loss of artillery pieces has gained pace, and it seems the Russians are using more obsolete pieces and as barrels wear also having to move to closer range.
Anyone think Biden might get displaced by Kennedy as the main challenger to Trump?
0%
How many on left hand side of politics are yearning for a vaccine denying conspiracy theorist? And that’s just his presentable views.
There is time for events to align with his views. A doctor friend recently reported to me that her and most of her colleagues now privately shy away from recommending the vaccine to all but the elderly, because they are anecdotally seeing odd incidences of cancer that have left them scratching their heads. To the extent that they are also busily reminding under 40s of the early symptoms of cancer even in social settings.
Now perhaps there is nothing to this. But there is a non zero chance that rfk and his ilk will be able to claim the “I told you so” hill.
What with blowing a hairdryer up your nose the other day and this, this site is becoming a conspiracy web site. I thought people who posted here had more sense.
Half the people posting here vote the wrong way every election.
There is voting for the wrong party and then there is sticking a hairdryer up your nose. I'm trying to work out which is worse.
I sometimes do the hairdryer thing for colds.
That 'colds' is an autocorrect of 'lols', right?
I know it's a cliche, but defending Boris Johnson for his hairdryer idea is "Peak PB"
Anyone think Biden might get displaced by Kennedy as the main challenger to Trump?
I think it's unlikely, because I think RFK draws at least as much - and possibly more - from Trump's voter base. How many big vaccine sceptics currently vote Biden?
I suspect that RFK will fizzle, and not make the debates.
However, it is not impossible that he makes 20% in the polling (he is after all currently polling at around that level), in which case all bets are off.
Despite being batshit crazy, let's not forget that RFK is younger, fitter and more articulate than either Trump or Biden.
In American politics being Batshit crazy is often an electoral advantage. Truth and rationality are so restricting.
Time and time again I lose money betting on US politics because I take a British attitude to it.
Sounds stupid when you put it like that but it's very hard to get inside the minds of some American voters.
A poll the other day had 58% supporting either Trump or Kennedy.
Anyone think Biden might get displaced by Kennedy as the main challenger to Trump?
0%
How many on left hand side of politics are yearning for a vaccine denying conspiracy theorist? And that’s just his presentable views.
There is time for events to align with his views. A doctor friend recently reported to me that her and most of her colleagues now privately shy away from recommending the vaccine to all but the elderly, because they are anecdotally seeing odd incidences of cancer that have left them scratching their heads. To the extent that they are also busily reminding under 40s of the early symptoms of cancer even in social settings.
Now perhaps there is nothing to this. But there is a non zero chance that rfk and his ilk will be able to claim the “I told you so” hill.
Total rot.
"...they are anecdotally seeing odd incidences of cancer that have left them scratching their heads
That describes most instances of cancer surely? Most of the friends and acquaintances I have known who have suffered cancer have been 'odd instances' - i.e. they've just been unlucky.
Anyone think Biden might get displaced by Kennedy as the main challenger to Trump?
0%
How many on left hand side of politics are yearning for a vaccine denying conspiracy theorist? And that’s just his presentable views.
There is time for events to align with his views. A doctor friend recently reported to me that her and most of her colleagues now privately shy away from recommending the vaccine to all but the elderly, because they are anecdotally seeing odd incidences of cancer that have left them scratching their heads. To the extent that they are also busily reminding under 40s of the early symptoms of cancer even in social settings.
Now perhaps there is nothing to this. But there is a non zero chance that rfk and his ilk will be able to claim the “I told you so” hill.
I’d give more credence to increased cancer incidence post vaccine if there was a plausible theory to explain how it might occur, over say the immune response to covid itself, which is what the vaccines mimic. That attitude to the vaccine does not match my experience.
Mutations due to low level radiation from the chips, innit?
Anyone think Biden might get displaced by Kennedy as the main challenger to Trump?
I think it's unlikely, because I think RFK draws at least as much - and possibly more - from Trump's voter base. How many big vaccine sceptics currently vote Biden?
I suspect that RFK will fizzle, and not make the debates.
However, it is not impossible that he makes 20% in the polling (he is after all currently polling at around that level), in which case all bets are off.
Despite being batshit crazy, let's not forget that RFK is younger, fitter and more articulate than either Trump or Biden.
In American politics being Batshit crazy is often an electoral advantage. Truth and rationality are so restricting.
Time and time again I lose money betting on US politics because I take a British attitude to it.
Sounds stupid when you put it like that but it's very hard to get inside the minds of some American voters.
A poll the other day had 58% supporting either Trump or Kennedy.
7 out of 10 Americans think there are Angels living on Earth
We used to worry about a Russian amphibious assault on Odesa, but now Ukraine launches special forces raids to destroy Russia's air defences in Crimea. The Ukrainians hit a new Russian missile ship in Kerch in the last couple of days.
There's so much emphasis on the land front line that the successes Ukraine has had on the sea and in the air (destroying a number of Russian aircraft in Russian airbases) are overlooked.
Russia withdrew from the Grain deal, but Ukraine has managed to export grain by sea regardless. The Russians are unable to even maintain a blockade of civilian shipping in the Black Sea.
The signs of waning Russian power are all around. I am very optimistic that Ukraine will emerge victorious if the West does not talk itself into defeat.
It seems marginal, but on balance the war is not necessarily progressing in Russia's interests. Defeat though is a long way away unless there's a less crap attempt at revolution. Meanwhile Ukraine is bleeding.
I'm of the view that NATO should just intervene. We ask the Ukraine what their minimal settlement is (perhaps all of Ukraine and the Russians keep Crimea) and then we make it happen. So long as it's pre-agreed with the Russians (which it will be) the I think it's fine.
Ukraine gets to basically say 'we won'. The Russians get to say 'we would have won, we were right, we're still right, but we didn't want to risk Mrs Migginsoskyvay's linen factory' or whatever fantasy they might choose.
Anyone think Biden might get displaced by Kennedy as the main challenger to Trump?
0%
How many on left hand side of politics are yearning for a vaccine denying conspiracy theorist? And that’s just his presentable views.
There is time for events to align with his views. A doctor friend recently reported to me that her and most of her colleagues now privately shy away from recommending the vaccine to all but the elderly, because they are anecdotally seeing odd incidences of cancer that have left them scratching their heads. To the extent that they are also busily reminding under 40s of the early symptoms of cancer even in social settings.
Now perhaps there is nothing to this. But there is a non zero chance that rfk and his ilk will be able to claim the “I told you so” hill.
What with blowing a hairdryer up your nose the other day and this, this site is becoming a conspiracy web site. I thought people who posted here had more sense.
Half the people posting here vote the wrong way every election.
There is voting for the wrong party and then there is sticking a hairdryer up your nose. I'm trying to work out which is worse.
Anyone think Biden might get displaced by Kennedy as the main challenger to Trump?
I think it's unlikely, because I think RFK draws at least as much - and possibly more - from Trump's voter base. How many big vaccine sceptics currently vote Biden?
I suspect that RFK will fizzle, and not make the debates.
However, it is not impossible that he makes 20% in the polling (he is after all currently polling at around that level), in which case all bets are off.
Despite being batshit crazy, let's not forget that RFK is younger, fitter and more articulate than either Trump or Biden.
In American politics being Batshit crazy is often an electoral advantage. Truth and rationality are so restricting.
Time and time again I lose money betting on US politics because I take a British attitude to it.
Sounds stupid when you put it like that but it's very hard to get inside the minds of some American voters.
A poll the other day had 58% supporting either Trump or Kennedy.
7 out of 10 Americans think there are Angels living on Earth
Hmm. Under 40s? Malignant cancer deaths 2017-2023 in the US for ages 25-44 divided into states below vaccination average and states above vaccination average:
Surely we'd expect the orange line (higher vaxxed states) to be above the blue line (lower vaxxed states) if vaccines caused cancer?
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
Personal anecdote - this is stopping me spending money on big-ticket items in the UK at the moment.
Giving a tax cut to rich foreigners just to increase the profits of purveyors of overpriced consumer tat would not be viewed well when many people are struggling.
Fine, so the global 0.1% will do their shopping in Paris instead.
Personal anecdote - this is stopping me spending money on big-ticket items in the UK at the moment.
Giving a tax cut to rich foreigners just to increase the profits of purveyors of overpriced consumer tat would not be viewed well when many people are struggling.
Fine, so the global 0.1% will do their shopping in Paris instead.
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
Cats can be very amusing. In the absence of the dogs and the family our cat once just threw itself at me and my newspaper. They're not as cool as they want to be.
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
You don't get pets, you don't do long-term relationships - maybe just accept that you're a little bit different to most people?
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
You don't get pets, you don't do long-term relationships - maybe just accept that you're a little bit different to most people?
No, this is different, I morally object to pets, and despise the weaklings that enslave them - at a serious cost to the environment
We used to worry about a Russian amphibious assault on Odesa, but now Ukraine launches special forces raids to destroy Russia's air defences in Crimea. The Ukrainians hit a new Russian missile ship in Kerch in the last couple of days.
There's so much emphasis on the land front line that the successes Ukraine has had on the sea and in the air (destroying a number of Russian aircraft in Russian airbases) are overlooked.
Russia withdrew from the Grain deal, but Ukraine has managed to export grain by sea regardless. The Russians are unable to even maintain a blockade of civilian shipping in the Black Sea.
The signs of waning Russian power are all around. I am very optimistic that Ukraine will emerge victorious if the West does not talk itself into defeat.
I think that is true, but the 5 month offensive has led to a gain of territory more akin to Western Front battles in WW1 than anything we saw in 2022. It looks as if there will be attrition and stalemate for some time. Drones seem to have nullified armoured advances by both reconnaissance and direct attack.
The other notable Ukranian success is in counter-battery fire on Russian artillery. The rate of loss of artillery pieces has gained pace, and it seems the Russians are using more obsolete pieces and as barrels wear also having to move to closer range.
It's hard to know for sure with fog of war etc.
Will the arrival of the F16s next year make much difference? Are the Ukrainians majoring on suppressing Russian air defences in the meantime? Game-changer?
Personal anecdote - this is stopping me spending money on big-ticket items in the UK at the moment.
Giving a tax cut to rich foreigners just to increase the profits of purveyors of overpriced consumer tat would not be viewed well when many people are struggling.
Fine, so the global 0.1% will do their shopping in Paris instead.
...and?...
French retailers, hoteliers, restauranteurs, taxi drivers, and most of all the French government in taxing all of the above, will make money, at the expense of the British.
It’s typical Spreadsheet Sunak, just seeing the VAT refunds as tax lost, rather than the bigger picture of tourism boosting business and employment, as well as overall tax revenues.
He could, and should, be telling the French and Germans to come to London for a day trip or a long weekend, and go home with a new watch and a new phone…
Anyone think Biden might get displaced by Kennedy as the main challenger to Trump?
I think it's unlikely, because I think RFK draws at least as much - and possibly more - from Trump's voter base. How many big vaccine sceptics currently vote Biden?
I suspect that RFK will fizzle, and not make the debates.
However, it is not impossible that he makes 20% in the polling (he is after all currently polling at around that level), in which case all bets are off.
Despite being batshit crazy, let's not forget that RFK is younger, fitter and more articulate than either Trump or Biden.
In American politics being Batshit crazy is often an electoral advantage. Truth and rationality are so restricting.
Time and time again I lose money betting on US politics because I take a British attitude to it.
Sounds stupid when you put it like that but it's very hard to get inside the minds of some American voters.
I don't think we can do it. We barely understand our own and attempts to understand other political cultures become increasingly tragicomic. Focussing on the numbers (eg opinion polls) and direct outcomes (vote share) instead of indirect ones (EC votes, Presidency) is the best we can do. It's not perfect, but it gets you 80% of the way and I'll live with that.
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
Personal anecdote - this is stopping me spending money on big-ticket items in the UK at the moment.
Giving a tax cut to rich foreigners just to increase the profits of purveyors of overpriced consumer tat would not be viewed well when many people are struggling.
Fine, so the global 0.1% will do their shopping in Paris instead.
...and?...
French retailers, hoteliers, restauranteurs, taxi drivers, and most of all the French government in taxing all of the above, will make money, at the expense of the British.
It’s typical Spreadsheet Sunak, just seeing the VAT refunds as tax lost, rather than the bigger picture of tourism boosting business and employment, as well as overall tax revenues.
He could, and should, be telling the French and Germans to come to London for a day trip, and go home with a new watch and a new phone…
The best solution is that they go home with a disfunctional aircraft carrier. We lead the world there.
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
You don't get pets, you don't do long-term relationships - maybe just accept that you're a little bit different to most people?
No, this is different, I morally object to pets, and despise the weaklings that enslave them - at a serious cost to the environment
"Oh look, my cat did this funny thing"
"Hey, I go for walks with a dog"
GET A FUCKING LIFE
I wasn't trying to be rude, offensive, or judgemental. You don't understand why most people like pets, fair enough, not an issue.
My personal theory is that humans have a deep evolutionary affinity to other species and having a pet fits with that. But that's an evidence-free theory on my part.
Anyone think Biden might get displaced by Kennedy as the main challenger to Trump?
I think it's unlikely, because I think RFK draws at least as much - and possibly more - from Trump's voter base. How many big vaccine sceptics currently vote Biden?
I suspect that RFK will fizzle, and not make the debates.
However, it is not impossible that he makes 20% in the polling (he is after all currently polling at around that level), in which case all bets are off.
Despite being batshit crazy, let's not forget that RFK is younger, fitter and more articulate than either Trump or Biden.
In American politics being Batshit crazy is often an electoral advantage. Truth and rationality are so restricting.
Time and time again I lose money betting on US politics because I take a British attitude to it.
Sounds stupid when you put it like that but it's very hard to get inside the minds of some American voters.
I've always lost on US politics too. Small sums generally, and I was wise enough to avoid betting against Trump, but I'm well down.
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
You don't get pets, you don't do long-term relationships - maybe just accept that you're a little bit different to most people?
No, this is different, I morally object to pets, and despise the weaklings that enslave them - at a serious cost to the environment
"Oh look, my cat did this funny thing"
"Hey, I go for walks with a dog"
GET A FUCKING LIFE
I wasn't trying to be rude, offensive, or judgemental. You don't understand why most people like pets, fair enough, not an issue.
My personal theory is that humans have a deep evolutionary affinity to other species and having a pet fits with that. But that's an evidence-free theory on my part.
No, you don'tget it. I understand why people want pets - these people are lonely, bored, inadequate and selfish. I just think they should overcome this
I realise this is not a popular point of view. I predict it will become more widespread with time Intelligent animals kept for amusement are horrifying, when you actually analyse it
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
You don't get pets, you don't do long-term relationships - maybe just accept that you're a little bit different to most people?
No, this is different, I morally object to pets, and despise the weaklings that enslave them - at a serious cost to the environment
"Oh look, my cat did this funny thing"
"Hey, I go for walks with a dog"
GET A FUCKING LIFE
I wasn't trying to be rude, offensive, or judgemental. You don't understand why most people like pets, fair enough, not an issue.
My personal theory is that humans have a deep evolutionary affinity to other species and having a pet fits with that. But that's an evidence-free theory on my part.
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
Indeed, it is like slavery. Cats exploit their slaves mercilessly.
Dogs are different. They are so transparent in their affection for their owners. Particularly good when you have had a crap day and get greeted with manifest joy.
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
Indeed, it is like slavery. Cats exploit their slaves mercilessly.
Dogs are different. They are so transparent in their affection for their owners. Particularly good when you have had a crap day and get greeted with manifest joy.
If you rely on an enslaved, mutilated animal to lift your spirits you are indeed truly inadequate, to a quite extraordinary degree
Imagine if these animals could speak
"Yeah, my ambition in life is to become an obese eunuch with no purpose but to "lift the spirits" of my master, despute the fact I am mostly miserable, I'm happy with that, I never wanted to have a dog life anyway"
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
You don't get pets, you don't do long-term relationships - maybe just accept that you're a little bit different to most people?
No, this is different, I morally object to pets, and despise the weaklings that enslave them - at a serious cost to the environment
"Oh look, my cat did this funny thing"
"Hey, I go for walks with a dog"
GET A FUCKING LIFE
I wasn't trying to be rude, offensive, or judgemental. You don't understand why most people like pets, fair enough, not an issue.
My personal theory is that humans have a deep evolutionary affinity to other species and having a pet fits with that. But that's an evidence-free theory on my part.
Pets are warm and soft and emotionally simpler than other humans, so you can get some of the companionship that a relationship with a human would give you, with a much more predictable level of hassle.
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
Indeed, it is like slavery. Cats exploit their slaves mercilessly.
Dogs are different. They are so transparent in their affection for their owners. Particularly good when you have had a crap day and get greeted with manifest joy.
If you rely on an enslaved, mutilated animal to lift your spirits you are indeed truly inadequate, to a quite extraordinary degree
Imagine if these animals could speak
"Yeah, my ambition in life is to become an obese eunuch with no purpose but to "lift the spirits" of my master, despute the fact I am mostly miserable, I'm happy with that, I never wanted to have a dog life anyway"
Ok, I tried to be polite but really you're a sad misfit lacking in a fundamental human trait. Seek help pal!
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
You don't get pets, you don't do long-term relationships - maybe just accept that you're a little bit different to most people?
No, this is different, I morally object to pets, and despise the weaklings that enslave them - at a serious cost to the environment
"Oh look, my cat did this funny thing"
"Hey, I go for walks with a dog"
GET A FUCKING LIFE
I wasn't trying to be rude, offensive, or judgemental. You don't understand why most people like pets, fair enough, not an issue.
My personal theory is that humans have a deep evolutionary affinity to other species and having a pet fits with that. But that's an evidence-free theory on my part.
Pets are warm and soft and emotionally simpler than other humans, so you can get some of the companionship that a relationship with a human would give you, with a much more predictable level of hassle.
How does the amimal feel?
Really really really try and think about it. Go outside your comfort zone
This becomes ever more telling as AI rises. Imagine if AI kept us as castrated fat twats, because we sometimes do funny things, or we are eager to do gymnastics with them
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
My dog keeps me fit. Stops me being lazy....
My dogs got no nose.
(if we don't complete the reference the universe explodes)
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
My dog keeps me fit. Stops me being lazy....
My dogs got no nose.
(if we don't complete the reference the universe explodes)
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
You don't get pets, you don't do long-term relationships - maybe just accept that you're a little bit different to most people?
No, this is different, I morally object to pets, and despise the weaklings that enslave them - at a serious cost to the environment
"Oh look, my cat did this funny thing"
"Hey, I go for walks with a dog"
GET A FUCKING LIFE
I wasn't trying to be rude, offensive, or judgemental. You don't understand why most people like pets, fair enough, not an issue.
My personal theory is that humans have a deep evolutionary affinity to other species and having a pet fits with that. But that's an evidence-free theory on my part.
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
Indeed, it is like slavery. Cats exploit their slaves mercilessly.
Dogs are different. They are so transparent in their affection for their owners. Particularly good when you have had a crap day and get greeted with manifest joy.
"My house slaves are different. They are so transparent in their affection for their owners. Watch Gone With The Wind, and you'll see"
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
You don't get pets, you don't do long-term relationships - maybe just accept that you're a little bit different to most people?
No, this is different, I morally object to pets, and despise the weaklings that enslave them - at a serious cost to the environment
"Oh look, my cat did this funny thing"
"Hey, I go for walks with a dog"
GET A FUCKING LIFE
I wasn't trying to be rude, offensive, or judgemental. You don't understand why most people like pets, fair enough, not an issue.
My personal theory is that humans have a deep evolutionary affinity to other species and having a pet fits with that. But that's an evidence-free theory on my part.
Pets are warm and soft and emotionally simpler than other humans, so you can get some of the companionship that a relationship with a human would give you, with a much more predictable level of hassle.
Imagine if AI kept us as castrated fat twats, because we sometimes do funny things
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
You don't get pets, you don't do long-term relationships - maybe just accept that you're a little bit different to most people?
No, this is different, I morally object to pets, and despise the weaklings that enslave them - at a serious cost to the environment
"Oh look, my cat did this funny thing"
"Hey, I go for walks with a dog"
GET A FUCKING LIFE
I wasn't trying to be rude, offensive, or judgemental. You don't understand why most people like pets, fair enough, not an issue.
My personal theory is that humans have a deep evolutionary affinity to other species and having a pet fits with that. But that's an evidence-free theory on my part.
Pets are warm and soft and emotionally simpler than other humans, so you can get some of the companionship that a relationship with a human would give you, with a much more predictable level of hassle.
Put like that I'm actually mildly surprised that Leon doesn't have a pet. Given his oft demonstrated acceptance of paying for physical contact with another human, you would think that exchanging food for stroking a cat would be the sort of bargain he could get behind.
It's kinda fascinating that he manages to confound my expectations in this way.
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
My dog keeps me fit. Stops me being lazy....
Dr Dog is highly therapeutic, for both body and soul.
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
You don't get pets, you don't do long-term relationships - maybe just accept that you're a little bit different to most people?
No, this is different, I morally object to pets, and despise the weaklings that enslave them - at a serious cost to the environment
"Oh look, my cat did this funny thing"
"Hey, I go for walks with a dog"
GET A FUCKING LIFE
I wasn't trying to be rude, offensive, or judgemental. You don't understand why most people like pets, fair enough, not an issue.
My personal theory is that humans have a deep evolutionary affinity to other species and having a pet fits with that. But that's an evidence-free theory on my part.
Pets are warm and soft and emotionally simpler than other humans, so you can get some of the companionship that a relationship with a human would give you, with a much more predictable level of hassle.
How does the amimal feel?
Really really really try and think about it. Go outside your comfort zone
This becomes ever more telling as AI rises. Imagine if AI kept us as castrated fat twats, because we sometimes do funny things, or we are eager to do gymnastics with them
Oh I know. I have had pets before, but I'm not sure I would do so again, for that and other reasons. But I don't think it's necessarily a terrible trade for cats or dogs, compared to the fate of other species.
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
You don't get pets, you don't do long-term relationships - maybe just accept that you're a little bit different to most people?
No, this is different, I morally object to pets, and despise the weaklings that enslave them - at a serious cost to the environment
"Oh look, my cat did this funny thing"
"Hey, I go for walks with a dog"
GET A FUCKING LIFE
I wasn't trying to be rude, offensive, or judgemental. You don't understand why most people like pets, fair enough, not an issue.
My personal theory is that humans have a deep evolutionary affinity to other species and having a pet fits with that. But that's an evidence-free theory on my part.
Pets are warm and soft and emotionally simpler than other humans, so you can get some of the companionship that a relationship with a human would give you, with a much more predictable level of hassle.
Imagine if AI kept us as castrated fat twats, because we sometimes do funny things
Isn't that why we keep you on PB?
"We keep you alive to serve this blog. Write well and live!"
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
You don't get pets, you don't do long-term relationships - maybe just accept that you're a little bit different to most people?
No, this is different, I morally object to pets, and despise the weaklings that enslave them - at a serious cost to the environment
"Oh look, my cat did this funny thing"
"Hey, I go for walks with a dog"
GET A FUCKING LIFE
I wasn't trying to be rude, offensive, or judgemental. You don't understand why most people like pets, fair enough, not an issue.
My personal theory is that humans have a deep evolutionary affinity to other species and having a pet fits with that. But that's an evidence-free theory on my part.
Pets are warm and soft and emotionally simpler than other humans, so you can get some of the companionship that a relationship with a human would give you, with a much more predictable level of hassle.
Put like that I'm actually mildly surprised that Leon doesn't have a pet. Given his oft demonstrated acceptance of paying for physical contact with another human, you would think that exchanging food for stroking a cat would be the sort of bargain he could get behind.
It's kinda fascinating that he manages to confound my expectations in this way.
When you realise that I am on a higher spiritual plane, it all makes sense
I believe this is true, by the way. Despite being a drunken, over-indulged tosser, I somehow have advanced to realising that pets are morally heinous - and they really are. Once you think it through. 99.98% of humanity has yet to make the obvious logical leap
Most people are resolutely inside their box, and the outside makes them unfeasibly uncomfortable
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
My dog keeps me fit. Stops me being lazy....
My dogs got no nose.
(if we don't complete the reference the universe explodes)
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
My dog keeps me fit. Stops me being lazy....
Like I said. Selfish and inadequate
Next
That's bullshit. Giving a dog a home is a kindness. We rescued a terribly mistreated dog, badly bitten. She is very happy and she is part of the family. There are selfish nasty and inadequate people who own dogs but I am not one of them.
Anyone think Biden might get displaced by Kennedy as the main challenger to Trump?
0%
How many on left hand side of politics are yearning for a vaccine denying conspiracy theorist? And that’s just his presentable views.
There is time for events to align with his views. A doctor friend recently reported to me that her and most of her colleagues now privately shy away from recommending the vaccine to all but the elderly, because they are anecdotally seeing odd incidences of cancer that have left them scratching their heads. To the extent that they are also busily reminding under 40s of the early symptoms of cancer even in social settings.
Now perhaps there is nothing to this. But there is a non zero chance that rfk and his ilk will be able to claim the “I told you so” hill.
Total rot.
"...they are anecdotally seeing odd incidences of cancer that have left them scratching their heads
That describes most instances of cancer surely? Most of the friends and acquaintances I have known who have suffered cancer have been 'odd instances' - i.e. they've just been unlucky.
My own view is that it is too early to tell what will be the long-term side effects of the vaccines. Normally, I would not give a moment to such thoughts but it gets forgotten that mRNA had not been through the standard testing procedures for a vaccine but had been sped-tracked through because of Covid. Potentially more important though is that the companies involved were given waivers by the US Government for any future liabilities for side effects caused by the vaccines. When you have (1) a big bucket of money waiting to be made (2) a focus on getting something out as quickly as possibly and (3) no liability for anything that goes wrong, that usually flashes warning bells.
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
Indeed, it is like slavery. Cats exploit their slaves mercilessly.
Dogs are different. They are so transparent in their affection for their owners. Particularly good when you have had a crap day and get greeted with manifest joy.
If you rely on an enslaved, mutilated animal to lift your spirits you are indeed truly inadequate, to a quite extraordinary degree
Imagine if these animals could speak
"Yeah, my ambition in life is to become an obese eunuch with no purpose but to "lift the spirits" of my master, despute the fact I am mostly miserable, I'm happy with that, I never wanted to have a dog life anyway"
If my cat could speak he'd probably say something like "I hate you, feed me you bastard" then go to sleep.
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
Indeed, it is like slavery. Cats exploit their slaves mercilessly.
Dogs are different. They are so transparent in their affection for their owners. Particularly good when you have had a crap day and get greeted with manifest joy.
"My house slaves are different. They are so transparent in their affection for their owners. Watch Gone With The Wind, and you'll see"
You've not experienced Gone with the Wind until you've seen the real ending
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
You don't get pets, you don't do long-term relationships - maybe just accept that you're a little bit different to most people?
No, this is different, I morally object to pets, and despise the weaklings that enslave them - at a serious cost to the environment
"Oh look, my cat did this funny thing"
"Hey, I go for walks with a dog"
GET A FUCKING LIFE
I wasn't trying to be rude, offensive, or judgemental. You don't understand why most people like pets, fair enough, not an issue.
My personal theory is that humans have a deep evolutionary affinity to other species and having a pet fits with that. But that's an evidence-free theory on my part.
Pets are warm and soft and emotionally simpler than other humans, so you can get some of the companionship that a relationship with a human would give you, with a much more predictable level of hassle.
How does the amimal feel?
Really really really try and think about it. Go outside your comfort zone
This becomes ever more telling as AI rises. Imagine if AI kept us as castrated fat twats, because we sometimes do funny things, or we are eager to do gymnastics with them
Oh I know. I have had pets before, but I'm not sure I would do so again, for that and other reasons. But I don't think it's necessarily a terrible trade for cats or dogs, compared to the fate of other species.
The same is said about all domesticated aninals
Indeed the same argument has been made for slavery:
"Defenders of slavery argued that by comparison with the poor of Europe and the workers in the Northern states, that slaves were better cared for. They said that their owners would protect and assist them when they were sick and aged, unlike those who, once fired from their work, were left to fend helplessly for themselves."
Anyone think Biden might get displaced by Kennedy as the main challenger to Trump?
I think it's unlikely, because I think RFK draws at least as much - and possibly more - from Trump's voter base. How many big vaccine sceptics currently vote Biden?
I suspect that RFK will fizzle, and not make the debates.
However, it is not impossible that he makes 20% in the polling (he is after all currently polling at around that level), in which case all bets are off.
Despite being batshit crazy, let's not forget that RFK is younger, fitter and more articulate than either Trump or Biden.
In American politics being Batshit crazy is often an electoral advantage. Truth and rationality are so restricting.
Time and time again I lose money betting on US politics because I take a British attitude to it.
Sounds stupid when you put it like that but it's very hard to get inside the minds of some American voters.
A poll the other day had 58% supporting either Trump or Kennedy.
Personal anecdote - this is stopping me spending money on big-ticket items in the UK at the moment.
Taxes should be low, flat and evenly applied.
If tourists buy something, they should pay the same taxes as anyone else.
When I go to the other side of the Atlantic I don't get a refund on any sales taxes levied there.
The UK is a major hub for tourists annually, of course they should be paying taxes. Better than we do.
Which means accepting that people who have a choice of where to shop, particularly Chinese and Arab tourists, are choosing to either buy luxury goods locally to themselves, or to visit jurisdictions that do give tax refunds to overseas visitors - such as everywhere else with VAT, especially in Europe.
My heart breaks for Chinese and Arab tourists who don't find us to be a tax haven.
No wait, it doesn't actually.
The UK gets over 40 million tourists visiting per annum. We are an interesting, developed, historically significant country that will get tourists either way - same as France, same as New York and more.
Its 100% better that those tourists pay their fair share of tax, rather than have it dumped all on the rest of us.
If some people find that harms their business because their business would be better off set up in a tax haven, then move to Liechtenstein.
Taxes should be low and evenly applied, not high but only applied to a few. And taxing non-voters is about as sensible as it gets.
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
My dog keeps me fit. Stops me being lazy....
Like I said. Selfish and inadequate
Next
That's bullshit. Giving a dog a home is a kindness. We rescued a terribly mistreated dog, badly bitten. She is very happy and she is part of the family. There are selfish nasty and inadequate people who own dogs but I am not one of them.
Tell you what, how about we have NO dogs as domestic pets? How about that? Then you wouldn't have to rescue any?
Let dogs be dogs, in packs, as nature intended, in the wild. Not denatured, castrated freaks kept in a purposeless brick box all day because they sometimes "lift the spirits" of a stupid provincial GP in Leicester
We used to worry about a Russian amphibious assault on Odesa, but now Ukraine launches special forces raids to destroy Russia's air defences in Crimea. The Ukrainians hit a new Russian missile ship in Kerch in the last couple of days.
There's so much emphasis on the land front line that the successes Ukraine has had on the sea and in the air (destroying a number of Russian aircraft in Russian airbases) are overlooked.
Russia withdrew from the Grain deal, but Ukraine has managed to export grain by sea regardless. The Russians are unable to even maintain a blockade of civilian shipping in the Black Sea.
The signs of waning Russian power are all around. I am very optimistic that Ukraine will emerge victorious if the West does not talk itself into defeat.
I think that is true, but the 5 month offensive has led to a gain of territory more akin to Western Front battles in WW1 than anything we saw in 2022. It looks as if there will be attrition and stalemate for some time. Drones seem to have nullified armoured advances by both reconnaissance and direct attack.
The other notable Ukranian success is in counter-battery fire on Russian artillery. The rate of loss of artillery pieces has gained pace, and it seems the Russians are using more obsolete pieces and as barrels wear also having to move to closer range.
It's hard to know for sure with fog of war etc.
Attacking is extremely hard: the Russians have minefields; the Ukrainians have HMRS and trenches. Each side is taking horrendous casualties every time it tries to advance.
But, for what it's worth, I think that favours Ukraine.
So long, that is, that the flow of arms and ammunition continue from the West.
Not much firework action round here tonight. I guess the big council and corporate displays are a thing of the past (or have moved to New Year's Eve) and half the locals save them for Diwali.
Where do you live?
Both my children's schools and local village have had one.
I’m house sitting for a friend in Falmouth. Massive house, sea views. All I gotta do is feed the cats
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
Indeed, it is like slavery. Cats exploit their slaves mercilessly.
Dogs are different. They are so transparent in their affection for their owners. Particularly good when you have had a crap day and get greeted with manifest joy.
If you rely on an enslaved, mutilated animal to lift your spirits you are indeed truly inadequate, to a quite extraordinary degree
Imagine if these animals could speak
"Yeah, my ambition in life is to become an obese eunuch with no purpose but to "lift the spirits" of my master, despute the fact I am mostly miserable, I'm happy with that, I never wanted to have a dog life anyway"
If my cat could speak he'd probably say something like "I hate you, feed me you bastard" then go to sleep.
Our dog would be saying "I love you. I love Mrs P even more. Btw is there any food going spare?"
Or at least he would when he's not, as at present, asleep on his bed in front of the woodburner.
Comments
This has to be the worst kit combination in football.
That's a great (and rather old) Tom Clancy novel.
In the sunbelt, Trump is polling 50%, and it's difficult to lose from there. In the rustbelt, it's 47-48%, and if the undecideds break 2:1 for the incumbent, then those are some very close races.
Firstly, let's not forget that plenty of major tourist destinations (like New York) offer no such benefits, and still attract the tourists.
Secondly, the basic economics of supply and demand means that a subsidy for tourists inherently means higher prices for locals. At its simplest, you are shifting the demand curve to the right.
This is Red Rising, which is your typical dystopian scifi set on Mars.
I suspect that RFK will fizzle, and not make the debates.
However, it is not impossible that he makes 20% in the polling (he is after all currently polling at around that level), in which case all bets are off.
Despite being batshit crazy, let's not forget that RFK is younger, fitter and more articulate than either Trump or Biden.
How many on left hand side of politics are yearning for a vaccine denying conspiracy theorist? And that’s just his presentable views.
Personally, I think a bigger threat to Biden might be West. If RFK stands, as you say, he could eat into Trump's base more than Biden's but West would be likely to attract younger, more liberal voters.
Out of the Rustbelt states, maybe the state Biden will have a major issue in if the Gaza problems continue is Michigan given the large-ish Arab population. However, in all three, he needs the Black votes from the major conurbations to win. The signs that Trump is eroding into the African American vote should sound alarm bells.
In the sunbelt, people have spent a lot of money on their properties. Everyone is in work, but they are financially stretched, with a lot of their income going out on their mortgages. With interest rates having shot up, housing markets have gone to hell, some people are facing moving onto adjustable rates soon, and no-one can move house. High interest rates = people feeling poorer and more financially insecure.
In the rustbelt, property prices haven't moved much. People don't spend anywhere near as much money on housing. In those states, insecurity is to do with job availability; which is not bad, but not amazing either.
Immigration is - I'm sure - a factor. But not a dominant one. And I think you can see that in last year's midterms. where the Republicans did very poorly in the sunbelt). They happened at a time when interest rates were a lot lower, but immigration was pretty much as it is now.
Now perhaps there is nothing to this. But there is a non zero chance that rfk and his ilk will be able to claim the “I told you so” hill.
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1721226049961308297
Sounds stupid when you put it like that but it's very hard to get inside the minds of some American voters.
If Trump does blow it, it will because he is likely to turn the whole campaign into a long whine of victimhood all about himself. That plays well to the core at present, but at some point voters are likely to ask "what is he going to do for me and my family?".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Rising
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Storm_Rising
This of course is quite a different concept to vaccine or covid induced cancers.
There's so much emphasis on the land front line that the successes Ukraine has had on the sea and in the air (destroying a number of Russian aircraft in Russian airbases) are overlooked.
Russia withdrew from the Grain deal, but Ukraine has managed to export grain by sea regardless. The Russians are unable to even maintain a blockade of civilian shipping in the Black Sea.
The signs of waning Russian power are all around. I am very optimistic that Ukraine will emerge victorious if the West does not talk itself into defeat.
The other notable Ukranian success is in counter-battery fire on Russian artillery. The rate of loss of artillery pieces has gained pace, and it seems the Russians are using more obsolete pieces and as barrels wear also having to move to closer range.
It's hard to know for sure with fog of war etc.
"...they are anecdotally seeing odd incidences of cancer that have left them scratching their heads
That describes most instances of cancer surely? Most of the friends and acquaintances I have known who have suffered cancer have been 'odd instances' - i.e. they've just been unlucky.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/nearly-7-in-10-u-s-adults-believe-in-angels-ap-norc-poll-finds
I'm of the view that NATO should just intervene. We ask the Ukraine what their minimal settlement is (perhaps all of Ukraine and the Russians keep Crimea) and then we make it happen. So long as it's pre-agreed with the Russians (which it will be) the I think it's fine.
Ukraine gets to basically say 'we won'. The Russians get to say 'we would have won, we were right, we're still right, but we didn't want to risk Mrs Migginsoskyvay's linen factory' or whatever fantasy they might choose.
Under 40s?
Malignant cancer deaths 2017-2023 in the US for ages 25-44 divided into states below vaccination average and states above vaccination average:
Surely we'd expect the orange line (higher vaxxed states) to be above the blue line (lower vaxxed states) if vaccines caused cancer?
(Source here: https://twitter.com/tylerblack32/status/1679191050861318144 )
Could be worse. But I just don’t get pets. Cats are amusing sometimes but that’s it. All they do is loll around sleeping meantime you have to let them in and out and feed them disgusting food and then they sleep some more
What is it? Why pets? Why cats and dogs? Why can’t people cope without a stupid domesticated mammal that’s basically in a comfortable jail and had no purpose other than to mildly entertain?
It’s like slavery. Pet owners are inadequate twats
https://www.britannica.com/topic/Tobermory
"Oh look, my cat did this funny thing"
"Hey, I go for walks with a dog"
GET A FUCKING LIFE
It’s typical Spreadsheet Sunak, just seeing the VAT refunds as tax lost, rather than the bigger picture of tourism boosting business and employment, as well as overall tax revenues.
He could, and should, be telling the French and Germans to come to London for a day trip or a long weekend, and go home with a new watch and a new phone…
"So, you took this natural wild mammal, and kept it in a house, basically against all its instincts, I guess it did some important job?"
"No, it just was there to entertain me"
"What??"
"I mean, yeah, that was it. Sometimes it did funny jumps. Or it barked amusingly"
"That's it???"
"No no no, long before that I had its genitals cut off. After that it just destroyed wildlife"
My personal theory is that humans have a deep evolutionary affinity to other species and having a pet fits with that. But that's an evidence-free theory on my part.
I realise this is not a popular point of view. I predict it will become more widespread with time Intelligent animals kept for amusement are horrifying, when you actually analyse it
Next
Dogs are different. They are so transparent in their affection for their owners. Particularly good when you have had a crap day and get greeted with manifest joy.
Imagine if these animals could speak
"Yeah, my ambition in life is to become an obese eunuch with no purpose but to "lift the spirits" of my master, despute the fact I am mostly miserable, I'm happy with that, I never wanted to have a dog life anyway"
Really really really try and think about it. Go outside your comfort zone
This becomes ever more telling as AI rises. Imagine if AI kept us as castrated fat twats, because we sometimes do funny things, or we are eager to do gymnastics with them
But...how does he smell?
"No it isn't!"
"Yes it is"
https://youtu.be/ohDB5gbtaEQ?feature=shared
It's kinda fascinating that he manages to confound my expectations in this way.
I believe this is true, by the way. Despite being a drunken, over-indulged tosser, I somehow have advanced to realising that pets are morally heinous - and they really are. Once you think it through. 99.98% of humanity has yet to make the obvious logical leap
Most people are resolutely inside their box, and the outside makes them unfeasibly uncomfortable
There are selfish nasty and inadequate people who own dogs but I am not one of them.
For disclosure, I have had three vaccine shots.
https://youtu.be/GhiOAFE64M4?si=LdfyCvIH7WzN4oyF
Indeed the same argument has been made for slavery:
"Defenders of slavery argued that by comparison with the poor of Europe and the workers in the Northern states, that slaves were better cared for. They said that their owners would protect and assist them when they were sick and aged, unlike those who, once fired from their work, were left to fend helplessly for themselves."
https://www.ushistory.org/us/27f.asp
No wait, it doesn't actually.
The UK gets over 40 million tourists visiting per annum. We are an interesting, developed, historically significant country that will get tourists either way - same as France, same as New York and more.
Its 100% better that those tourists pay their fair share of tax, rather than have it dumped all on the rest of us.
If some people find that harms their business because their business would be better off set up in a tax haven, then move to Liechtenstein.
Taxes should be low and evenly applied, not high but only applied to a few. And taxing non-voters is about as sensible as it gets.
Let dogs be dogs, in packs, as nature intended, in the wild. Not denatured, castrated freaks kept in a purposeless brick box all day because they sometimes "lift the spirits" of a stupid provincial GP in Leicester
But, for what it's worth, I think that favours Ukraine.
So long, that is, that the flow of arms and ammunition continue from the West.
Both my children's schools and local village have had one.
Or at least he would when he's not, as at present, asleep on his bed in front of the woodburner.