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There’s still a big gap for the Tories to surount – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,932
    carnforth said:

    nico679 said:

    Given Biden’s visit tomorrow it would be insane for the IDF to target a hospital .

    Someone mentioned Occams Razor earlier and I think that’s apt for this .

    A malfunction by either the IDF or rocket fired from Gaza seems the most likely or less likely a desperate false flag operation .


    The truth can be grimmer than we are aware of. Hamas could have been using the hospital as a base for military operations to use it as a human shield, and the Israelis could have then decided to hit it regardless.
    Not now they wouldn't. Biden arrives tonight.
    Is it possible Biden is so old he doesn't care if he dies? But surely he would follow advice against, to prevent those around him dying.

    So they must believe Hamas wouldn't be so stupid, or that they don't have the capability.
    Perhaps they used up their offensive capabilities on their own schools and hospitals as BR reckons!
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,167
    edited October 2023

    The curve ball response from Israel would have been to turn the other cheek - at least for time being - other than special forces sent to try and rescue hostages plus negotiate prisoner swaps.

    It would have blown Iran's play and wrong footed Hamas.

    Israel has paused their ground invasion, no?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,263
    I’m amazed that several PBers find the time to post on here. Such is the breadth of their analysis and depth of understanding of Middle Eastern warcraft, I feel certain they are vaunted consultants for the G7 powers.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,730
    We will see major attacks on Israel, or its "western allies", in the next few days

    Most likely is some kind of incursion from Lebanon
  • Options

    I’m amazed that several PBers find the time to post on here. Such is the breadth of their analysis and depth of understanding of Middle Eastern warcraft, I feel certain they are vaunted consultants for the G7 powers.

    We even get paid in cash ( kidding! :lol: )
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,603
    carnforth said:

    nico679 said:

    Given Biden’s visit tomorrow it would be insane for the IDF to target a hospital .

    Someone mentioned Occams Razor earlier and I think that’s apt for this .

    A malfunction by either the IDF or rocket fired from Gaza seems the most likely or less likely a desperate false flag operation .


    The truth can be grimmer than we are aware of. Hamas could have been using the hospital as a base for military operations to use it as a human shield, and the Israelis could have then decided to hit it regardless.
    Not now they wouldn't. Biden arrives tonight.
    Is it possible Biden is so old he doesn't care if he dies? But surely he would follow advice against, to prevent those around him dying.

    So they must believe Hamas wouldn't be so stupid, or that they don't have the capability.
    I didn't mean anything about Biden's safety. I meant it so complicates his visit to support Israel that there was some doubt he would even take off. Why would Israel risk pissing off their no 1 ally???
  • Options
    carnforth said:

    I’m amazed that several PBers find the time to post on here. Such is the breadth of their analysis and depth of understanding of Middle Eastern warcraft, I feel certain they are vaunted consultants for the G7 powers.

    Some of us know we know nothing, and are just chatting, pub style.
    Known unknowns!
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,932
    Israeli officials edited this tweet to remove the video, which it implied was proof that the Gaza hospital was struck by Islamic terrorists, after it was pointed out that the footage was time-stamped at least 40 minutes after the strike took place.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,184

    moonshine said:

    Andy_JS said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:
    Anna Botting blew a fuse there.
    Never seen her before. I was embarrassed on her behalf. Doesn’t seem like she has the temperament or intellect for that job but there we are
    She's been on Sky News for about 20 years at least.
    Should I be impressed by that? Never heard of her. And she went off a cliff in this interview.
    The interesting bit is her emotion riled the spokesperson, who was a UK ambassador iirc (so used to being diplomatic), into a rant about "time to destroy Hamas" etc etc.

    This is why Israel is walking into a trap. Driven, understandably by raw pain and anger, they will invade with 10,000s of Israel reservists and walk into a house by house blood bath.

    If the spokesman was Mark Regev, he was never particularly diplomatic when ambassador. He’s always been zero compromise and quite practiced at ranting at journalists.

    I didn’t see the interview, and it’s quite possible the emotion was genuine. But he’s entirely capable of it being performative too.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,263
    carnforth said:

    I’m amazed that several PBers find the time to post on here. Such is the breadth of their analysis and depth of understanding of Middle Eastern warcraft, I feel certain they are vaunted consultants for the G7 powers.

    Some of us know we know nothing, and are just chatting, pub style.
    Some of us, yes.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,603

    Hananya Naftali
    @HananyaNaftali
    Jordanians trying to set on fire the Israeli Embassy in Amman.

    https://twitter.com/HananyaNaftali/status/1714358044367175991
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,951
    edited October 2023
    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Hard to believe sensible PB-ers are going to such lengths to deny probable Israeli culpability here

    Now: we don't know for sure. That is true. And we probably never will

    But really, what country is dropping huge bombs on Gaza? Israel. This is a huge bomb which just dropped on Gaza

    I don’t know what happened. But I am minded to believe the imperfect democracy above the fascist death cult. The uk press was pretty shameful in the first hour, for instinctively flinching the opposite way.
    What the hell has Israel to gain by doing this?

    Nothing.

    They are trying to spread fear. Whether it's a mistake or not it's a logical conclusion to what they've been doing for the last ten days.
    Hi @Roger - while I disagree with you, I owe you an apology for last night: I misread 'place' as 'peace' and therefore completely misinterpreted your post.
    An easy mistake to make. I'll forgive a Salian anything. A friend invited me to the Little B a couple of weeks ago for old times sake.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,730


    Hananya Naftali
    @HananyaNaftali
    Jordanians trying to set on fire the Israeli Embassy in Amman.

    https://twitter.com/HananyaNaftali/status/1714358044367175991

    Expect a pretty massive terror attack in the west. And further persecution of Jews in the west
  • Options
    YokesYokes Posts: 1,203

    I’m much more inclined to believe the Israelis than a bunch of Hamas terrorists.

    Believe Oman UAE Saudi Arabia or are they all Hamas terrorists now?
    How would they know?
    If Hamas had rockets that were this powerful do you not think they would have been used while the IDF were asleep on 7.10.23
    A Fajr 5 full of fuel and a near 100kg warhead can be very damaging. They have them in Gaza, in fact they make them. Comparable in warhead to any Israeli air to surface missiles.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,932
    Israel: You guys need to evacuate that hospital or you'll get killed.

    Palestinians: We can't evacuate the hospital, it's a hospital.

    *powerful missile hits hospital*

    Israel: ...

    Israel: ...

    Israel: It was the Palestinians.look at this video time stamped 40 mins after the explosion

    Whoops
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,669
    Yokes said:

    I’m much more inclined to believe the Israelis than a bunch of Hamas terrorists.

    Believe Oman UAE Saudi Arabia or are they all Hamas terrorists now?
    How would they know?
    If Hamas had rockets that were this powerful do you not think they would have been used while the IDF were asleep on 7.10.23
    A Fajr 5 full of fuel and a near 100kg warhead can be very damaging. They have them in Gaza, in fact they make them. Comparable in warhead to any Israeli air to surface missiles.
    And if, as I am inclined to believe, Hamas has targeted this in order to pin the blame on Israel this is is exactly the kind of firepower they would use.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,603
    Leon said:

    We will see major attacks on Israel, or its "western allies", in the next few days

    Most likely is some kind of incursion from Lebanon

    I'm not so sure.

    Yes, it is looking highly likely that Hizbollah will be given the green light by Iran.

    But...

    Just maybe the theocrats will pause and think for a moment or two whether tipping the whole middle east into total war might not upend them.

    Don't forget, back home, the kids are agitating about living in a medieval society. They have pressures internally themselves.

    On balance, I think they will pause and await developments.


  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    edited October 2023
    FYI...the claims that the video from Al-Jazeera can't be possibly be the rocket, because the time is wrong....claims its shows 18:59 local time, strike took place around 19:50, is Fake News.

    That is when the Western media reported it, there are tweets from Arabic media already reporting what Hamas officials were saying as early as 19.22 that Israel had bombed the hospital complete with photos.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,730
    MaxPB said:

    One of the reasons I think it's Hamas was the speed at which all of the PR was pushed out to the Hamas friendly media. Usually with this kind of attack it takes some time to get accounts to the media out there and even photos/videos from the site. Yet this was bombed and then very detailed accounts of it and blaming of Israel appeared instantaneously, media outlets being simultaneously briefed within minutes with pictures of the site and videos.

    More than anything else, this, to me, screams pre-meditation. We know Hamas give absolutely zero fucks about civilians, something they have proved many times over. Staging an attack on a Palestinian hospital in a designated safe zone and blaming Israel seems like something a terrorist would do. Feeding global Hamas friendly media within minutes with pictures is something they would also do.

    It could have been Israel, but so far the evidence is lacking and all we have is Hamas saying it was Israel which, frankly, carries absolutely zero weight.

    Hmm


    In this now deleted tweet by
    @HananyaNaftali
    , #Israel first took credit for bombing the Baptist Hospital. Once they saw how many civilians it killed, he deleted this tweet and blamed the attack on #Hamas and said Hamas bombed the hospital themselves. 500 civilians were murdered.


    https://x.com/IkaFerrerGotic/status/1714395216122167467?s=20
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,263
    Roger said:

    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Hard to believe sensible PB-ers are going to such lengths to deny probable Israeli culpability here

    Now: we don't know for sure. That is true. And we probably never will

    But really, what country is dropping huge bombs on Gaza? Israel. This is a huge bomb which just dropped on Gaza

    I don’t know what happened. But I am minded to believe the imperfect democracy above the fascist death cult. The uk press was pretty shameful in the first hour, for instinctively flinching the opposite way.
    What the hell has Israel to gain by doing this?

    Nothing.

    They are trying to spread fear. Whether it's a mistake or not it's a logical conclusion to what they've been doing for the last ten days.
    Hi @Roger - while I disagree with you, I owe you an apology for last night: I misread 'place' as 'peace' and therefore completely misinterpreted your post.
    An easy mistake to make. I'll forgive a Salian anything. A friend invited me to the Little B a couple of weeks ago for old times sake.
    I assumed a Salian related to a public school, and you were both old boys. But then I googled Little B and discovered it is a pub in Sale, Manchester.
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,266
    edited October 2023
    Protestors have overcome a police barricade at the Israeli embassy in Istanbul, and are trying to force their way inside.

    They are shooting fireworks at it.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,623
    edited October 2023

    FYI...the claims that the video from Al-Jazeera can't be correct because the time is wrong....claims its shows 18:59 local time, strike took place around 19:50, is Fake News.

    That is when the Western media reported it, there are tweets from Arabic media already reporting as early as 19.22 that Israel had bombed the hospital with photos.

    You know Al Jazeera is still saying in BIG bold letters on their TV channel:

    ISRAEL RAID KILLS 500
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    RattersRatters Posts: 808
    Let's watch US and UK government responses to this once there has been time for intelligence agencies to properly vet the evidence. There must be plenty of surveillance satellites in the area right now.

    For now I'll believe Israel over Hamas because 1) both scenarios are plausible, 2) I trust Israel more, and 3) I want it to be true. But it's a balance of probabilities and not a conviction position.

    We need full throttled support of Israel at the least, but really also public evidence as to where the fault lies. And soon. Because right now the Muslim world is assuming it's Israel as points 2 and 3 above don't apply in their worldview.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,603
    Leon said:


    Hananya Naftali
    @HananyaNaftali
    Jordanians trying to set on fire the Israeli Embassy in Amman.

    https://twitter.com/HananyaNaftali/status/1714358044367175991

    Expect a pretty massive terror attack in the west. And further persecution of Jews in the west
    Not sure about "massive".

    Numerous acts of mindless violence by angry lone wolves or small cells like allegedly in Brussels seems more likely to me.

    But you are correct about the sentiments of this situation.

  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,669
    edited October 2023
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    One of the reasons I think it's Hamas was the speed at which all of the PR was pushed out to the Hamas friendly media. Usually with this kind of attack it takes some time to get accounts to the media out there and even photos/videos from the site. Yet this was bombed and then very detailed accounts of it and blaming of Israel appeared instantaneously, media outlets being simultaneously briefed within minutes with pictures of the site and videos.

    More than anything else, this, to me, screams pre-meditation. We know Hamas give absolutely zero fucks about civilians, something they have proved many times over. Staging an attack on a Palestinian hospital in a designated safe zone and blaming Israel seems like something a terrorist would do. Feeding global Hamas friendly media within minutes with pictures is something they would also do.

    It could have been Israel, but so far the evidence is lacking and all we have is Hamas saying it was Israel which, frankly, carries absolutely zero weight.

    Hmm


    In this now deleted tweet by
    @HananyaNaftali
    , #Israel first took credit for bombing the Baptist Hospital. Once they saw how many civilians it killed, he deleted this tweet and blamed the attack on #Hamas and said Hamas bombed the hospital themselves. 500 civilians were murdered.


    https://x.com/IkaFerrerGotic/status/1714395216122167467?s=20
    If that tweet existed then it will have screenshots everywhere all over social media. That these haven't surfaced means it probably didn't happen. Though you can never be sure. The potato quality of that picture is, err, telling though.
  • Options
    YokesYokes Posts: 1,203
    To repeat. We do not know.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,103
    MaxPB said:

    One of the reasons I think it's Hamas was the speed at which all of the PR was pushed out to the Hamas friendly media. Usually with this kind of attack it takes some time to get accounts to the media out there and even photos/videos from the site. Yet this was bombed and then very detailed accounts of it and blaming of Israel appeared instantaneously, media outlets being simultaneously briefed within minutes with pictures of the site and videos.

    More than anything else, this, to me, screams pre-meditation. We know Hamas give absolutely zero fucks about civilians, something they have proved many times over. Staging an attack on a Palestinian hospital in a designated safe zone and blaming Israel seems like something a terrorist would do. Feeding global Hamas friendly media within minutes with pictures is something they would also do.

    It could have been Israel, but so far the evidence is lacking and all we have is Hamas saying it was Israel which, frankly, carries absolutely zero weight.

    I wouldn’t put it past Hamas or the PIJ to have done this because amplified by social media once it’s out there lies don’t matter . We live in an age of confirmation bias on steroids .

    I’m keeping an open mind until more reputable information comes out .

  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,248
    Ratters said:

    Let's watch US and UK government responses to this once there has been time for intelligence agencies to properly vet the evidence. There must be plenty of surveillance satellites in the area right now.

    For now I'll believe Israel over Hamas because 1) both scenarios are plausible, 2) I trust Israel more, and 3) I want it to be true. But it's a balance of probabilities and not a conviction position.

    We need full throttled support of Israel at the least, but really also public evidence as to where the fault lies. And soon. Because right now the Muslim world is assuming it's Israel as points 2 and 3 above don't apply in their worldview.

    There is no evidence the West can provide that the Arab street will believe. Hamas are good at this.
  • Options
    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,964
    MaxPB said:

    One of the reasons I think it's Hamas was the speed at which all of the PR was pushed out to the Hamas friendly media. Usually with this kind of attack it takes some time to get accounts to the media out there and even photos/videos from the site. Yet this was bombed and then very detailed accounts of it and blaming of Israel appeared instantaneously, media outlets being simultaneously briefed within minutes with pictures of the site and videos.

    More than anything else, this, to me, screams pre-meditation. We know Hamas give absolutely zero fucks about civilians, something they have proved many times over. Staging an attack on a Palestinian hospital in a designated safe zone and blaming Israel seems like something a terrorist would do. Feeding global Hamas friendly media within minutes with pictures is something they would also do.

    It could have been Israel, but so far the evidence is lacking and all we have is Hamas saying it was Israel which, frankly, carries absolutely zero weight.

    Whilst I would have this as cockup (by either side) ahead of conspiracy, I'm not sure it actually matters that much who did it.

    The outcome will be the same either way. More violence, probably not restricted to Israel.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,167

    I’m amazed that several PBers find the time to post on here. Such is the breadth of their analysis and depth of understanding of Middle Eastern warcraft, I feel certain they are vaunted consultants for the G7 powers.

    Sounds like a normal day on PB to me, although the subjects of discussion change. 😊
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    edited October 2023
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    One of the reasons I think it's Hamas was the speed at which all of the PR was pushed out to the Hamas friendly media. Usually with this kind of attack it takes some time to get accounts to the media out there and even photos/videos from the site. Yet this was bombed and then very detailed accounts of it and blaming of Israel appeared instantaneously, media outlets being simultaneously briefed within minutes with pictures of the site and videos.

    More than anything else, this, to me, screams pre-meditation. We know Hamas give absolutely zero fucks about civilians, something they have proved many times over. Staging an attack on a Palestinian hospital in a designated safe zone and blaming Israel seems like something a terrorist would do. Feeding global Hamas friendly media within minutes with pictures is something they would also do.

    It could have been Israel, but so far the evidence is lacking and all we have is Hamas saying it was Israel which, frankly, carries absolutely zero weight.

    Hmm


    In this now deleted tweet by
    @HananyaNaftali
    , #Israel first took credit for bombing the Baptist Hospital. Once they saw how many civilians it killed, he deleted this tweet and blamed the attack on #Hamas and said Hamas bombed the hospital themselves. 500 civilians were murdered.


    https://x.com/IkaFerrerGotic/status/1714395216122167467?s=20
    If that tweet existed then it will have screenshots everywhere all over social media. That these haven't surfaced means it probably didn't happen. Though you can never be sure. The potato quality of that picture is, err, telling though.
    Here is the guys statement (we don't know if there was a tweet)....

    arlier today I shared a report that was published on
    @reuters
    about the bombing at the hospital in Gaza which falsely stated Israel struck the hospital. I mistakenly shared this information in a since deleted post in which I referenced Hamas’ routine use of hospitals to store weapons caches and conduct terrorist activity. I apologize for this error.

    As the IDF does not bomb hospitals, I assumed Israel was targeting one of the Hamas bases in Gaza.

    It is known that Hamas is using civilians as human shields, it is a war crime and a crime against humanity. This should be the focus.

    ---

    However looking at this guys timeline, he definitely a "tweet first" kinda of guy, there is stuff making definite statements where the facts are unclear.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,603
    Fog of war latest...



    Ian Dunt
    @IanDunt
    ·
    42m
    Deleting this because it insinuates, and was meant to insinuate, that Israel was responsible, which is now in doubt. No-one here knows what happened, even if many people are keen to insist they do. Neither do I.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,312

    Leon said:

    We will see major attacks on Israel, or its "western allies", in the next few days

    Most likely is some kind of incursion from Lebanon

    I'm not so sure.

    Yes, it is looking highly likely that Hizbollah will be given the green light by Iran.

    But...

    Just maybe the theocrats will pause and think for a moment or two whether tipping the whole middle east into total war might not upend them.

    Don't forget, back home, the kids are agitating about living in a medieval society. They have pressures internally themselves.

    On balance, I think they will pause and await developments.
    This is spinning out of the control of any one actor.
  • Options
    Yokes said:

    To repeat. We do not know.

    I'm still waiting for the answer to your cryptic statement about what was located in the vicinity of the hospital.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,669

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    One of the reasons I think it's Hamas was the speed at which all of the PR was pushed out to the Hamas friendly media. Usually with this kind of attack it takes some time to get accounts to the media out there and even photos/videos from the site. Yet this was bombed and then very detailed accounts of it and blaming of Israel appeared instantaneously, media outlets being simultaneously briefed within minutes with pictures of the site and videos.

    More than anything else, this, to me, screams pre-meditation. We know Hamas give absolutely zero fucks about civilians, something they have proved many times over. Staging an attack on a Palestinian hospital in a designated safe zone and blaming Israel seems like something a terrorist would do. Feeding global Hamas friendly media within minutes with pictures is something they would also do.

    It could have been Israel, but so far the evidence is lacking and all we have is Hamas saying it was Israel which, frankly, carries absolutely zero weight.

    Hmm


    In this now deleted tweet by
    @HananyaNaftali
    , #Israel first took credit for bombing the Baptist Hospital. Once they saw how many civilians it killed, he deleted this tweet and blamed the attack on #Hamas and said Hamas bombed the hospital themselves. 500 civilians were murdered.


    https://x.com/IkaFerrerGotic/status/1714395216122167467?s=20
    If that tweet existed then it will have screenshots everywhere all over social media. That these haven't surfaced means it probably didn't happen. Though you can never be sure. The potato quality of that picture is, err, telling though.
    Here is the guys statement (we don't know if there was a tweet)....

    arlier today I shared a report that was published on
    @reuters
    about the bombing at the hospital in Gaza which falsely stated Israel struck the hospital. I mistakenly shared this information in a since deleted post in which I referenced Hamas’ routine use of hospitals to store weapons caches and conduct terrorist activity. I apologize for this error.

    As the IDF does not bomb hospitals, I assumed Israel was targeting one of the Hamas bases in Gaza.

    It is known that Hamas is using civilians as human shields, it is a war crime and a crime against humanity. This should be the focus.

    ---

    However looking at this guys timeline, he definitely a "tweet first" kinda of guy, there is stuff making definite statements where the facts are unclear.
    Oh he's not an Israeli government official? I thought he was, at least that was the implication. Someone official in the Israeli government claiming responsibility then quickly reversing that. It's just some rando, who gives a fuck what he's saying then?
  • Options
    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,469
    MaxPB said:

    Yokes said:

    I’m much more inclined to believe the Israelis than a bunch of Hamas terrorists.

    Believe Oman UAE Saudi Arabia or are they all Hamas terrorists now?
    How would they know?
    If Hamas had rockets that were this powerful do you not think they would have been used while the IDF were asleep on 7.10.23
    A Fajr 5 full of fuel and a near 100kg warhead can be very damaging. They have them in Gaza, in fact they make them. Comparable in warhead to any Israeli air to surface missiles.
    And if, as I am inclined to believe, Hamas has targeted this in order to pin the blame on Israel this is is exactly the kind of firepower they would use.
    I don't think you could target a specific building with these. Seems they're pretty much point and shoot with a minimum range of 40km+
  • Options
    YokesYokes Posts: 1,203
    edited October 2023
    So the Israelis are reportedly showing some kind of aerial footage indicating the explosion occurred in a parking area, as suggested some 4 hours ago in the previous thread.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    edited October 2023
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    One of the reasons I think it's Hamas was the speed at which all of the PR was pushed out to the Hamas friendly media. Usually with this kind of attack it takes some time to get accounts to the media out there and even photos/videos from the site. Yet this was bombed and then very detailed accounts of it and blaming of Israel appeared instantaneously, media outlets being simultaneously briefed within minutes with pictures of the site and videos.

    More than anything else, this, to me, screams pre-meditation. We know Hamas give absolutely zero fucks about civilians, something they have proved many times over. Staging an attack on a Palestinian hospital in a designated safe zone and blaming Israel seems like something a terrorist would do. Feeding global Hamas friendly media within minutes with pictures is something they would also do.

    It could have been Israel, but so far the evidence is lacking and all we have is Hamas saying it was Israel which, frankly, carries absolutely zero weight.

    Hmm


    In this now deleted tweet by
    @HananyaNaftali
    , #Israel first took credit for bombing the Baptist Hospital. Once they saw how many civilians it killed, he deleted this tweet and blamed the attack on #Hamas and said Hamas bombed the hospital themselves. 500 civilians were murdered.


    https://x.com/IkaFerrerGotic/status/1714395216122167467?s=20
    If that tweet existed then it will have screenshots everywhere all over social media. That these haven't surfaced means it probably didn't happen. Though you can never be sure. The potato quality of that picture is, err, telling though.
    Here is the guys statement (we don't know if there was a tweet)....

    arlier today I shared a report that was published on
    @reuters
    about the bombing at the hospital in Gaza which falsely stated Israel struck the hospital. I mistakenly shared this information in a since deleted post in which I referenced Hamas’ routine use of hospitals to store weapons caches and conduct terrorist activity. I apologize for this error.

    As the IDF does not bomb hospitals, I assumed Israel was targeting one of the Hamas bases in Gaza.

    It is known that Hamas is using civilians as human shields, it is a war crime and a crime against humanity. This should be the focus.

    ---

    However looking at this guys timeline, he definitely a "tweet first" kinda of guy, there is stuff making definite statements where the facts are unclear.
    Oh he's not an Israeli government official? I thought he was, at least that was the implication. Someone official in the Israeli government claiming responsibility then quickly reversing that. It's just some rando, who gives a fuck what he's saying then?
    No that is also very dodgy....Al-Jazeera reported that an unnamed IDF official told them they had told people to evacuate the hospital, so what did they expect. Which then turned into the IDF definitely said they were targeting the hospital, repeated across social media.

    For all we know, a) it could be total BS, b) could be some twat in the IDF that made a heartless comment off the cuff, based on the fact Israel several days ago told them to evacuate everywhere including hospitals North of a particular line, C) the truth (but strange no name, nobody else has this statement that isn't quoting Al-Jazeera, etc).
  • Options

    Yokes said:

    To repeat. We do not know.

    I'm still waiting for the answer to your cryptic statement about what was located in the vicinity of the hospital.
    To repeat. We do not know.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,603
    This.


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    14m
    One other thing on the hospital strike. Whatever your views on the conflict, does anyone seriously think Israel would target a hospital in Gaza just as Joe Biden is stepping on Air Force One.

  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,669

    MaxPB said:

    Yokes said:

    I’m much more inclined to believe the Israelis than a bunch of Hamas terrorists.

    Believe Oman UAE Saudi Arabia or are they all Hamas terrorists now?
    How would they know?
    If Hamas had rockets that were this powerful do you not think they would have been used while the IDF were asleep on 7.10.23
    A Fajr 5 full of fuel and a near 100kg warhead can be very damaging. They have them in Gaza, in fact they make them. Comparable in warhead to any Israeli air to surface missiles.
    And if, as I am inclined to believe, Hamas has targeted this in order to pin the blame on Israel this is is exactly the kind of firepower they would use.
    I don't think you could target a specific building with these. Seems they're pretty much point and shoot with a minimum range of 40km+
    Not if you just place it there and arm it on the ground?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,184

    FYI...the claims that the video from Al-Jazeera can't be correct because the time is wrong....claims its shows 18:59 local time, strike took place around 19:50, is Fake News.

    That is when the Western media reported it, there are tweets from Arabic media already reporting as early as 19.22 that Israel had bombed the hospital with photos.

    You know Al Jazeera is still saying in BIG bold letters on their TV channel:

    ISRAEL RAID KILLS 500
    Yokes said:

    To repeat. We do not know.

    That’s where I am.
    No conclusive evidence to say either way, and every possibility it could have been the actions of either ‘side’.

    Reporting anything other than that, without further evidence, is hugely irrrsponsible.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,730
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    One of the reasons I think it's Hamas was the speed at which all of the PR was pushed out to the Hamas friendly media. Usually with this kind of attack it takes some time to get accounts to the media out there and even photos/videos from the site. Yet this was bombed and then very detailed accounts of it and blaming of Israel appeared instantaneously, media outlets being simultaneously briefed within minutes with pictures of the site and videos.

    More than anything else, this, to me, screams pre-meditation. We know Hamas give absolutely zero fucks about civilians, something they have proved many times over. Staging an attack on a Palestinian hospital in a designated safe zone and blaming Israel seems like something a terrorist would do. Feeding global Hamas friendly media within minutes with pictures is something they would also do.

    It could have been Israel, but so far the evidence is lacking and all we have is Hamas saying it was Israel which, frankly, carries absolutely zero weight.

    Hmm


    In this now deleted tweet by
    @HananyaNaftali
    , #Israel first took credit for bombing the Baptist Hospital. Once they saw how many civilians it killed, he deleted this tweet and blamed the attack on #Hamas and said Hamas bombed the hospital themselves. 500 civilians were murdered.


    https://x.com/IkaFerrerGotic/status/1714395216122167467?s=20
    If that tweet existed then it will have screenshots everywhere all over social media. That these haven't surfaced means it probably didn't happen. Though you can never be sure. The potato quality of that picture is, err, telling though.
    There are loads of screenshots

    But of course they could be fake

    https://x.com/LtLurk369/status/1714412570310791514?s=20

    My hunch is Israel did this by accident. Occam's razor, again. But of course I could be wrong. In the grander scheme it won't matter, most people will believe Israel did it anyway (Israel is bombing Gaza, this is a bomb in Gaza) so we should BRACE for the repercussions from that. Israel simply cannot win this PR skirmish

    Also, morally, does it even matter? Hamas has admitted it cruelly slaughtered, raped, butchered, and sliced up 1400 Israelis, including babies and old people, in a pogrom worthy of the Nazis at their worst. They don't even deny it. The crime is enormous and unspeakable

    In return Israel has bombed Gaza to shit, killing 3000 people, to add to the tens of thousands of Gazans it has killed over the decades. That is also unspeakable

    Evil piles upon evil, and everyone suffocates in the avalanche
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    edited October 2023

    This.


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    14m
    One other thing on the hospital strike. Whatever your views on the conflict, does anyone seriously think Israel would target a hospital in Gaza just as Joe Biden is stepping on Air Force One.

    I think the deliberate targeting the highly unlikely. They instantly lose US backing just when Sleepy Joe is arriving.

    The most likely are terrorist rocket misfire or Israel guided missile gone wrong.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,167
    One thing everyone can agree on: Egypt are shits for not helping their fellow Muslims from Gaza.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,669

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    One of the reasons I think it's Hamas was the speed at which all of the PR was pushed out to the Hamas friendly media. Usually with this kind of attack it takes some time to get accounts to the media out there and even photos/videos from the site. Yet this was bombed and then very detailed accounts of it and blaming of Israel appeared instantaneously, media outlets being simultaneously briefed within minutes with pictures of the site and videos.

    More than anything else, this, to me, screams pre-meditation. We know Hamas give absolutely zero fucks about civilians, something they have proved many times over. Staging an attack on a Palestinian hospital in a designated safe zone and blaming Israel seems like something a terrorist would do. Feeding global Hamas friendly media within minutes with pictures is something they would also do.

    It could have been Israel, but so far the evidence is lacking and all we have is Hamas saying it was Israel which, frankly, carries absolutely zero weight.

    Hmm


    In this now deleted tweet by
    @HananyaNaftali
    , #Israel first took credit for bombing the Baptist Hospital. Once they saw how many civilians it killed, he deleted this tweet and blamed the attack on #Hamas and said Hamas bombed the hospital themselves. 500 civilians were murdered.


    https://x.com/IkaFerrerGotic/status/1714395216122167467?s=20
    If that tweet existed then it will have screenshots everywhere all over social media. That these haven't surfaced means it probably didn't happen. Though you can never be sure. The potato quality of that picture is, err, telling though.
    Here is the guys statement (we don't know if there was a tweet)....

    arlier today I shared a report that was published on
    @reuters
    about the bombing at the hospital in Gaza which falsely stated Israel struck the hospital. I mistakenly shared this information in a since deleted post in which I referenced Hamas’ routine use of hospitals to store weapons caches and conduct terrorist activity. I apologize for this error.

    As the IDF does not bomb hospitals, I assumed Israel was targeting one of the Hamas bases in Gaza.

    It is known that Hamas is using civilians as human shields, it is a war crime and a crime against humanity. This should be the focus.

    ---

    However looking at this guys timeline, he definitely a "tweet first" kinda of guy, there is stuff making definite statements where the facts are unclear.
    Oh he's not an Israeli government official? I thought he was, at least that was the implication. Someone official in the Israeli government claiming responsibility then quickly reversing that. It's just some rando, who gives a fuck what he's saying then?
    No that is also very dodgy....Al-Jazeera reported that an unnamed IDF official told them they had told people to evacuate the hospital, so what did they expect. Which then turned into the IDF definitely said they were targeting the hospital, repeated across social media.

    For all we know, a) it could be total BS, b) could be some twat in the IDF that made a heartless comment off the cuff, based on the fact Israel several days ago told them to evacuate everywhere including hospitals North of a particular line, C) the truth (but strange no name, nobody else has this statement that isn't quoting Al-Jazeera, etc).
    And why would unnamed IDF source be briefing Al-Jazeera anyway? It's not as though there's any love lost between the two.
  • Options
    Yokes said:

    So the Israelis are reportedly showing some kind of aerial footage indicating the explosion occurred in a parking area, as suggested some 4 hours ago in the previous thread.

    And why is the parking area important?
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    One of the reasons I think it's Hamas was the speed at which all of the PR was pushed out to the Hamas friendly media. Usually with this kind of attack it takes some time to get accounts to the media out there and even photos/videos from the site. Yet this was bombed and then very detailed accounts of it and blaming of Israel appeared instantaneously, media outlets being simultaneously briefed within minutes with pictures of the site and videos.

    More than anything else, this, to me, screams pre-meditation. We know Hamas give absolutely zero fucks about civilians, something they have proved many times over. Staging an attack on a Palestinian hospital in a designated safe zone and blaming Israel seems like something a terrorist would do. Feeding global Hamas friendly media within minutes with pictures is something they would also do.

    It could have been Israel, but so far the evidence is lacking and all we have is Hamas saying it was Israel which, frankly, carries absolutely zero weight.

    Hmm


    In this now deleted tweet by
    @HananyaNaftali
    , #Israel first took credit for bombing the Baptist Hospital. Once they saw how many civilians it killed, he deleted this tweet and blamed the attack on #Hamas and said Hamas bombed the hospital themselves. 500 civilians were murdered.


    https://x.com/IkaFerrerGotic/status/1714395216122167467?s=20
    If that tweet existed then it will have screenshots everywhere all over social media. That these haven't surfaced means it probably didn't happen. Though you can never be sure. The potato quality of that picture is, err, telling though.
    Here is the guys statement (we don't know if there was a tweet)....

    arlier today I shared a report that was published on
    @reuters
    about the bombing at the hospital in Gaza which falsely stated Israel struck the hospital. I mistakenly shared this information in a since deleted post in which I referenced Hamas’ routine use of hospitals to store weapons caches and conduct terrorist activity. I apologize for this error.

    As the IDF does not bomb hospitals, I assumed Israel was targeting one of the Hamas bases in Gaza.

    It is known that Hamas is using civilians as human shields, it is a war crime and a crime against humanity. This should be the focus.

    ---

    However looking at this guys timeline, he definitely a "tweet first" kinda of guy, there is stuff making definite statements where the facts are unclear.
    Oh he's not an Israeli government official? I thought he was, at least that was the implication. Someone official in the Israeli government claiming responsibility then quickly reversing that. It's just some rando, who gives a fuck what he's saying then?
    No that is also very dodgy....Al-Jazeera reported that an unnamed IDF official told them they had told people to evacuate the hospital, so what did they expect. Which then turned into the IDF definitely said they were targeting the hospital, repeated across social media.

    For all we know, a) it could be total BS, b) could be some twat in the IDF that made a heartless comment off the cuff, based on the fact Israel several days ago told them to evacuate everywhere including hospitals North of a particular line, C) the truth (but strange no name, nobody else has this statement that isn't quoting Al-Jazeera, etc).
    And why would unnamed IDF source be briefing Al-Jazeera anyway? It's not as though there's any love lost between the two.
    Right, it really doesn't pass the sniff test.
  • Options
    YokesYokes Posts: 1,203

    Yokes said:

    To repeat. We do not know.

    I'm still waiting for the answer to your cryptic statement about what was located in the vicinity of the hospital.
    Did i? wasnt meant to be cryptic, just a series of possibilities.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,603
    Mark Urban
    @MarkUrban01
    ·
    1h
    Following the shocking Gaza hospital blast:
    - Palestinian Authority leader pulls out of mtg with Biden
    - Jordan then cancels the summit
    - violence across the West Bank
    - Hezbollah in Lebanon calls for a ‘day of rage’ on Wednesday,
    That’s the crisis President Biden flies into
  • Options
    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,469
    edited October 2023
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Yokes said:

    I’m much more inclined to believe the Israelis than a bunch of Hamas terrorists.

    Believe Oman UAE Saudi Arabia or are they all Hamas terrorists now?
    How would they know?
    If Hamas had rockets that were this powerful do you not think they would have been used while the IDF were asleep on 7.10.23
    A Fajr 5 full of fuel and a near 100kg warhead can be very damaging. They have them in Gaza, in fact they make them. Comparable in warhead to any Israeli air to surface missiles.
    And if, as I am inclined to believe, Hamas has targeted this in order to pin the blame on Israel this is is exactly the kind of firepower they would use.
    I don't think you could target a specific building with these. Seems they're pretty much point and shoot with a minimum range of 40km+
    Not if you just place it there and arm it on the ground?
    Both sides seem to think it came from the sky they just disagree on what it was. Who knows?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    There are big arbs on the winner of Mid Beds - Betfair Exchange is 4/5 the Tories, Betway are 11/8
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,167
    isam said:

    There are big arbs on the winner of Mid Beds - Betfair Exchange is 4/5 the Tories, Betway are 11/8

    I'm not sure these odds changes are based on anything concrete.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,263
    isam said:

    There are big arbs on the winner of Mid Beds - Betfair Exchange is 4/5 the Tories, Betway are 11/8

    Nice spot. Thanks
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,730

    Mark Urban
    @MarkUrban01
    ·
    1h
    Following the shocking Gaza hospital blast:
    - Palestinian Authority leader pulls out of mtg with Biden
    - Jordan then cancels the summit
    - violence across the West Bank
    - Hezbollah in Lebanon calls for a ‘day of rage’ on Wednesday,
    That’s the crisis President Biden flies into

    I wonder if Hizbollah will attack tomorrow. The NYT has reported they will only go for it if morally pressured by insane numbers of Gazan dead (eg over 10,000). But a single toll in one blast of 500-1000 might do it, too

    Lordy, this is a wobbly moment for the world
  • Options
    YokesYokes Posts: 1,203
    edited October 2023

    Yokes said:

    So the Israelis are reportedly showing some kind of aerial footage indicating the explosion occurred in a parking area, as suggested some 4 hours ago in the previous thread.

    And why is the parking area important?
    Maybe it isnt other than the potential fact thats where the explosion occurred. Maybe it is and something or someone was positioned there but there is no clarity yet, though the awareness that the explosion didnt apparently occur right on top of the hospital has been about for hours, and surprisingly missed by nearly everyone.
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Mark Urban
    @MarkUrban01
    ·
    1h
    Following the shocking Gaza hospital blast:
    - Palestinian Authority leader pulls out of mtg with Biden
    - Jordan then cancels the summit
    - violence across the West Bank
    - Hezbollah in Lebanon calls for a ‘day of rage’ on Wednesday,
    That’s the crisis President Biden flies into

    I wonder if Hizbollah will attack tomorrow. The NYT has reported they will only go for it if morally pressured by insane numbers of Gazan dead (eg over 10,000). But a single toll in one blast of 500-1000 might do it, too

    Lordy, this is a wobbly moment for the world
    So where are we with the who-did-it speculation? (Sorry, just got in and am catching up.)
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,188
    isam said:

    There are big arbs on the winner of Mid Beds - Betfair Exchange is 4/5 the Tories, Betway are 11/8

    32/40 vs 55/40
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,167
    edited October 2023
    edit
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,587
    Carnyx said:

    ohnotnow said:

    FPT - I'm really glad pb.com wasn't around in August 1914, and @Leon a regular poster at the time.

    I mean, can you imagine?

    He would have been worse in 1939/40.
    Imagine Suez. Imagine.
    Trouble is, especially in 1914, we'd get our news in the morning and a bit in the evening, and very, very occasionally a special edition. Imagine Leon confined to one post a day. With an editorial (and proprietorial) veto.
    Not all progress is positive?
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,413

    Israeli officials edited this tweet to remove the video, which it implied was proof that the Gaza hospital was struck by Islamic terrorists, after it was pointed out that the footage was time-stamped at least 40 minutes after the strike took place.

    Maybe we should get a source we can all trust in the case, BBC Verify.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,587
    From the Mail: Tories are braced for double by-election defeat this week as an internal memo warned their support has halved.

    A leaked assessment from canvassing paints a grim picture of the party's prospects, suggesting that in Mid Bedfordshire the vote share could plunge from the 60 per cent Nadine Dorries received in 2019 to 30 per cent.

    Meanwhile, in Tamworth the missive to party chair Greg Hands predicts that backing could slump to between 28 per cent and 33 per cent. That compares to the 66 per cent ex-MP Chris Pincher had four years ago.


    My long-suggested lay of the Tories in Mid-Beds looks like value
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,587
    The BBC documentary on the Housing Crisis, which takes a refreshingly intelligent wide view of the origins of the crisis and is well sourced, is well worth a watch. On iPlayer.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,565
    edited October 2023

    Leon said:

    Mark Urban
    @MarkUrban01
    ·
    1h
    Following the shocking Gaza hospital blast:
    - Palestinian Authority leader pulls out of mtg with Biden
    - Jordan then cancels the summit
    - violence across the West Bank
    - Hezbollah in Lebanon calls for a ‘day of rage’ on Wednesday,
    That’s the crisis President Biden flies into

    I wonder if Hizbollah will attack tomorrow. The NYT has reported they will only go for it if morally pressured by insane numbers of Gazan dead (eg over 10,000). But a single toll in one blast of 500-1000 might do it, too

    Lordy, this is a wobbly moment for the world
    So where are we with the who-did-it speculation? (Sorry, just got in and am catching up.)
    The Israelis and Hamas are both denying being involved. Hamas are blaming Israel and Israel are blaming Islamic Jihad. Mandy Rice-Davies applies to both.

    However, the Israelis say they have proof which they have already shared with Biden and will be sharing with the rest of us.

    If that is true, it will of course make no difference to complete nutters like Hamas and Chris Williamson, who will still blame Israel because they're a bunch of mad racists. but it will once again underline that the jihadist movement cares no more for the people of Gaza than the Israelis.

    Which will, once again, show how the aforesaid Gazans will be the greatest victims of this war, whatever the outcome.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,587
    edited October 2023
    Breaking - Sept CPI unchanged; food and drink price falls offset by more expensive fuel and hotels
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    edited October 2023
    Roger said:

    Why do Israel put forward as their spokesmen on Newsnight people who make Goebbels look benign? This one is a shocker

    Jesus. Really? Yuck. That you would type that and then press send says everything about you.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,847
    On the hospital we have, on PB

    1) Various people desperate for it to have been done by the other side. To fit their agenda.
    2) The usual poster or 2 upset that people have opinions, theories. Instead of listening to the BBC World Service with a complete attention, while standing to attention…. #ToyJournalists, perhaps?
    3) Sone people being moral and rational.

    I have an agenda as well, so it was obviously the Woke Trans Illegal Immigrant Alien AIs. But it wasn't their fault. They were provoked.

  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,847
    biggles said:

    Roger said:

    Why do Israel put forward as their spokesmen on Newsnight people who make Goebbels look benign? This one is a shocker

    Jesus. Really? Yuck. That you would type that and then press send says everything about you.
    Perhaps I should post the Boris Becker Moment again?
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    Why is there still a live debate here? Israel is being definitive and can’t now back down. They will know, the US will know. Biden will have to opine.

    It wasn’t Israel this time, but putting that much ordnance into that small a populated area means there is likely to be some sort of large, lethal mistake eventually.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,090
    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I just can’t believe Israel would target this hospital knowing the ramifications. So either there was a malfunction or this was a malfunction from rockets fired from Gaza .

    The thing that I do find strange is how a the malfunction just happened to hit of all places a hospital .

    So then we could be reaching a horrific conclusion that the hospital was targeted purposely .

    I see no motive for Israel to target this hospital , what exactly would they gain .

    So it’s either an accident or a false flag by terrorists in Gaza .

    No, it's an accident. If you are constantly bombing a crowded city - which is what Israel is doing (and probably with justification, given October 7) - then eventually you will make a mistake and bomb the wrong target, or some ordnance goes awry. As we see

    System reliability of PGMs ~ 95%

    A lot of components in the aircraft and weapon have to work perfectly for it to release, guide and fuse correctly. Then add in the human factors of getting the switchology wrong or simply incorrect target data - this happened very frequently in Afghanistan.
This discussion has been closed.