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There’s still a big gap for the Tories to surount – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    Foxy said:

    Been watching the footie. Do we have a PB consensus on the Gaza Hospital strike, IDF or Hamas?

    I'll take those collected responses as a "No, not really" then.

    I just hope conclusive evidence comes out and that it is not some massive IDF f*ck up.
    I don't think any evidence is going to change the minds of the convinced.

    Rioting in Ramallah against the Palestinian Authority, and big protests in Hebron Beirut, Istanbul and Amman. Biden is landing in a hot zone.
    But on the plus side he will sleep through it.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    edited October 2023
    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Official Israel SoS X account has removed the video they originally posted to show it was a Hamas rocket after someone noted the timestamp didn't match up to the timeline.

    Yes, it's bollocks

    Israel did this, I fear. We need really solid proof they didn't, because they are the ones bombing Gaza relentlessly and this looks like yet another bomb on Gaza. It is that simple
    Israel should know by now, and is not acting like it needs to explain itself. That tells me either it wasn’t Israel or something went so off target they don’t know it was them themselves.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    nico679 said:

    I just can’t believe Israel would target this hospital knowing the ramifications. So either there was a malfunction or this was a malfunction from rockets fired from Gaza .

    The thing that I do find strange is how a the malfunction just happened to hit of all places a hospital .

    So then we could be reaching a horrific conclusion that the hospital was targeted purposely .

    I see no motive for Israel to target this hospital , what exactly would they gain .

    So it’s either an accident or a false flag by terrorists in Gaza .

    No, it's an accident. If you are constantly bombing a crowded city - which is what Israel is doing (and probably with justification, given October 7) - then eventually you will make a mistake and bomb the wrong target, or some ordnance goes awry. As we see

    That has to be the default assumption absent some quite compelling evidence. Anyone who says otherwise, without that evidence, is propagandizing
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660
    edited October 2023
    nico679 said:

    I just can’t believe Israel would target this hospital knowing the ramifications. So either there was a malfunction or this was a malfunction from rockets fired from Gaza .

    The thing that I do find strange is how a the malfunction just happened to hit of all places a hospital .

    So then we could be reaching a horrific conclusion that the hospital was targeted purposely .

    I see no motive for Israel to target this hospital , what exactly would they gain .

    So it’s either an accident or a false flag by terrorists in Gaza .

    They have hit hospitals before*. One on the 14th from the same hospital group.

    "Awful news: Ahli Anglican Hospital in Gaza City has just been hit by a missile. Thankfully no one injured, but one of the floors in the diagnostic building was partially destroyed. Israel says it doesn’t target civilians or non military institutions, but it keeps on happening."
    https://twitter.com/sgcjerusalem/status/1713255097776636178

    *Assuming this wasn't a misfire too.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    edited October 2023
    .
    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    I see PB has been having fun with the caps lock key today.

    IT WAS MOSTLY ME. I WAS TRYING TO INJECT HUMOUR IN AN UNPLEASANT TIME. IT WOULD HAVE WORKED IF I HAD REMEMBERED TO INCLUDE THE "HUMOUR" BIT 😀
    It is possible for someone's keyboard to get stuck on caps lock. Let's not forget that.
    As per the vintage bash.org quote from some 90s IRC channel:

    Khassaki: HI EVERYBODY!!!!!!!!!!
    Judge-Mental: try pressing the the Caps Lock key
    Khassaki: O THANKS!!! ITS SO MUCH EASIER TO WRITE NOW!!!!!!!
    Judge-Mental: fuck me
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,332
    nico679 said:

    I just can’t believe Israel would target this hospital knowing the ramifications. So either there was a malfunction or this was a malfunction from rockets fired from Gaza .

    The thing that I do find strange is how a the malfunction just happened to hit of all places a hospital .

    So then we could be reaching a horrific conclusion that the hospital was targeted purposely .

    I see no motive for Israel to target this hospital , what exactly would they gain .

    So it’s either an accident or a false flag by terrorists in Gaza .

    Cock ups and collateral damage happen a lot more often than realised
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,248

    ..

    moonshine said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Been watching the footie. Do we have a PB consensus on the Gaza Hospital strike, IDF or Hamas?

    Definitely not IDF, they wouldn't be stupid enough to do something so counterproductive.
    Our media these days are so weird. Imagine if in 1945 we had headlines like “Allied death camps in Poland, as reported by German army”.
    Vasily Blokhin has entered the chat.
    The UK gov went along with the Stalin approved line on Katyn for quite a long time.
    Back during the Cold War, an attempt to setup a Karyn memorial in London was heavily… pushed back by the Foreign Office.

    Because it would be inflammatory.
  • Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I just can’t believe Israel would target this hospital knowing the ramifications. So either there was a malfunction or this was a malfunction from rockets fired from Gaza .

    The thing that I do find strange is how a the malfunction just happened to hit of all places a hospital .

    So then we could be reaching a horrific conclusion that the hospital was targeted purposely .

    I see no motive for Israel to target this hospital , what exactly would they gain .

    So it’s either an accident or a false flag by terrorists in Gaza .

    No, it's an accident. If you are constantly bombing a crowded city - which is what Israel is doing (and probably with justification, given October 7) - then eventually you will make a mistake and bomb the wrong target, or some ordnance goes awry. As we see

    That has to be the default assumption absent some quite compelling evidence. Anyone who says otherwise, without that evidence, is propagandizing
    Hamas are constantly bombing the city too, so why do you assume Israel did it?

    The only difference is that Israel uses precision guided ammunition while Hamas do not.

    Occam's razor says that Hamas did it.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908
    edited October 2023
    It seems like the whole area are convinced the Israelis are responsible. Obviously they hadn't consulted Batholomew and the other Middle East experts on here but this is now really serious. It seems that the missile was too big for a Hamas rocket but I'm sure there is a good answer which the PB experts will furnish the waiting countries with soon.

    This is not heading for a happy ending. If the Arab street and Turkey get involved this could be calamitous.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,662

    nico679 said:

    I just can’t believe Israel would target this hospital knowing the ramifications. So either there was a malfunction or this was a malfunction from rockets fired from Gaza .

    The thing that I do find strange is how a the malfunction just happened to hit of all places a hospital .

    So then we could be reaching a horrific conclusion that the hospital was targeted purposely .

    I see no motive for Israel to target this hospital , what exactly would they gain .

    So it’s either an accident or a false flag by terrorists in Gaza .

    Its not that strange, its just observation bias.

    Hamas are firing hundreds of missiles daily, a third of which land in Gaza. They don't care that many land in Gaza, as they don't value Gazan lives, if they kill some Israelis its worth it.

    All the misfires that land wayward somewhere of no importance, they don't get noticed. One that lands wayward on a hospital, that gets noticed.

    Its like if you threw hundreds of darts blindfolded in the vague vicinity of a dartboard. You might get one that hits a bullseye while hundreds go elsewhere. If the reporting then omits all others and just says "nico hits a bullseye while blindfolded" then that's accurate, but what happened was not really strange.
    Are the Hamas rockets capable of that much damage?
  • glw said:

    TOPPING said:

    The Beeb is having a shocker. Another headline says "In the Occupied West Bank the ruling Palestinian Authority.. "

    I think that journalism has always been a bit crap, but it got away with it in the past because the only report available was that from the foreign correspondent. If they got it wrong nobody had anything to compare it with to spot any mistakes, or bias, or ommissions.

    Nowadays there is a barrage of information from the moment something happens, and whilst a lot of it will be misleading there are nuggets amongst the rubbish. You get real expert opinion at times, not just a journalist's poor reporting, and you get to see many more sources, even if they are amateur, to view an event from all sorts of points of view. What this shows is that initial reporting of anything is rarely very good, and all too often journalists do not correct the record when they are wrong.
    Also there was always a delay, often significant, days, to report on an event. Now with 24hr news cycle and tw@tter, too often they just publish what they read on from somebody supposedly reliable on the tw@tter machine, and then others who trust them, rinse and repeat.

    Already seen it with the claim IDF said well we did say to evacuate.... That was originally from Al-Jazeera saying somebody told them the IDF said that, which quickly got re-tw@ttered as IDF said that.
    OK - fake news then?
    The only source I have seen is originally from this Al-Jazeera claim.

    It could that some IDF person heartlessly said this off the cuff, but all on the record official statements I have seen say nothing of the sort.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    Roger said:

    It seems like the whole area are convinced the Israelis are responsible. Obviously they hadn't consulted Batholomew and the other Middle East experts on here but this is now really serious. It seems that the missile was too big for a Hamas rocket but I'm sure there is a good answer which the PB experts will furnish us with soon.

    This is not heading for a happy ending. If the Arab street and Turkey get involved this could be calamitous.

    Turkey? What are you smoking?
  • nico679 said:

    I just can’t believe Israel would target this hospital knowing the ramifications. So either there was a malfunction or this was a malfunction from rockets fired from Gaza .

    The thing that I do find strange is how a the malfunction just happened to hit of all places a hospital .

    So then we could be reaching a horrific conclusion that the hospital was targeted purposely .

    I see no motive for Israel to target this hospital , what exactly would they gain .

    So it’s either an accident or a false flag by terrorists in Gaza .

    Its not that strange, its just observation bias.

    Hamas are firing hundreds of missiles daily, a third of which land in Gaza. They don't care that many land in Gaza, as they don't value Gazan lives, if they kill some Israelis its worth it.

    All the misfires that land wayward somewhere of no importance, they don't get noticed. One that lands wayward on a hospital, that gets noticed.

    Its like if you threw hundreds of darts blindfolded in the vague vicinity of a dartboard. You might get one that hits a bullseye while hundreds go elsewhere. If the reporting then omits all others and just says "nico hits a bullseye while blindfolded" then that's accurate, but what happened was not really strange.
    Are the Hamas rockets capable of that much damage?
    If Hamas were storing ammunition in the hospital so their rocket caused secondary explosions?

    Yes, definitely!

    Although I believe hospitals are dangerous places when it comes to explosions anyway, due to the amounts of oxygen in the building? Not sure if that's legit or too much Grey's Anatomy etc.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    nico679 said:

    I just can’t believe Israel would target this hospital knowing the ramifications. So either there was a malfunction or this was a malfunction from rockets fired from Gaza .

    The thing that I do find strange is how a the malfunction just happened to hit of all places a hospital .

    So then we could be reaching a horrific conclusion that the hospital was targeted purposely .

    I see no motive for Israel to target this hospital , what exactly would they gain .

    So it’s either an accident or a false flag by terrorists in Gaza .

    Its not that strange, its just observation bias.

    Hamas are firing hundreds of missiles daily, a third of which land in Gaza. They don't care that many land in Gaza, as they don't value Gazan lives, if they kill some Israelis its worth it.

    All the misfires that land wayward somewhere of no importance, they don't get noticed. One that lands wayward on a hospital, that gets noticed.

    Its like if you threw hundreds of darts blindfolded in the vague vicinity of a dartboard. You might get one that hits a bullseye while hundreds go elsewhere. If the reporting then omits all others and just says "nico hits a bullseye while blindfolded" then that's accurate, but what happened was not really strange.
    Are the Hamas rockets capable of that much damage?
    No. Unless they hit some munitions dump

    But that's where Occam's razor comes in. You need quite a sequence of unlikely events to reach the conclusion Hamas are responsible. It is not impossible, but it is a stretch

    Whereas on the other side you have the nation that is aerially bombarding Gaza every minute, and now we have some aerial bombardment of Gaza that, it seems, has gone badly wrong

    But as I say, I bet this is all largely forgotten in a week or two. We will be looking at greater enormities by then
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,662

    nico679 said:

    I just can’t believe Israel would target this hospital knowing the ramifications. So either there was a malfunction or this was a malfunction from rockets fired from Gaza .

    The thing that I do find strange is how a the malfunction just happened to hit of all places a hospital .

    So then we could be reaching a horrific conclusion that the hospital was targeted purposely .

    I see no motive for Israel to target this hospital , what exactly would they gain .

    So it’s either an accident or a false flag by terrorists in Gaza .

    Its not that strange, its just observation bias.

    Hamas are firing hundreds of missiles daily, a third of which land in Gaza. They don't care that many land in Gaza, as they don't value Gazan lives, if they kill some Israelis its worth it.

    All the misfires that land wayward somewhere of no importance, they don't get noticed. One that lands wayward on a hospital, that gets noticed.

    Its like if you threw hundreds of darts blindfolded in the vague vicinity of a dartboard. You might get one that hits a bullseye while hundreds go elsewhere. If the reporting then omits all others and just says "nico hits a bullseye while blindfolded" then that's accurate, but what happened was not really strange.
    Are the Hamas rockets capable of that much damage?
    If Hamas were storing ammunition in the hospital so their rocket caused secondary explosions?

    Yes, definitely!

    Although I believe hospitals are dangerous places when it comes to explosions anyway, due to the amounts of oxygen in the building? Not sure if that's legit or too much Grey's Anatomy etc.
    So now it's a malfunctioning rocket happened to hit a hospital, which happened to be doubling up as an ammunition storage facility?
  • Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I just can’t believe Israel would target this hospital knowing the ramifications. So either there was a malfunction or this was a malfunction from rockets fired from Gaza .

    The thing that I do find strange is how a the malfunction just happened to hit of all places a hospital .

    So then we could be reaching a horrific conclusion that the hospital was targeted purposely .

    I see no motive for Israel to target this hospital , what exactly would they gain .

    So it’s either an accident or a false flag by terrorists in Gaza .

    Its not that strange, its just observation bias.

    Hamas are firing hundreds of missiles daily, a third of which land in Gaza. They don't care that many land in Gaza, as they don't value Gazan lives, if they kill some Israelis its worth it.

    All the misfires that land wayward somewhere of no importance, they don't get noticed. One that lands wayward on a hospital, that gets noticed.

    Its like if you threw hundreds of darts blindfolded in the vague vicinity of a dartboard. You might get one that hits a bullseye while hundreds go elsewhere. If the reporting then omits all others and just says "nico hits a bullseye while blindfolded" then that's accurate, but what happened was not really strange.
    Are the Hamas rockets capable of that much damage?
    No. Unless they hit some munitions dump

    But that's where Occam's razor comes in. You need quite a sequence of unlikely events to reach the conclusion Hamas are responsible. It is not impossible, but it is a stretch

    Whereas on the other side you have the nation that is aerially bombarding Gaza every minute, and now we have some aerial bombardment of Gaza that, it seems, has gone badly wrong

    But as I say, I bet this is all largely forgotten in a week or two. We will be looking at greater enormities by then
    Which event is unlikely?

    Do this betting style:

    Event 1: Hamas were firing rockets.
    Odds? 100%

    Event 2: Some Hamas rockets misfired and landed in Gaza.
    Odds? 100%
    1/3rd of all rockets they fire misfire, they're launching hundreds a day, so 1/3 of hundreds misfired and landed in Gaza.

    Event 3: One of the misfired rockets landed on the hospital.
    Odds? Unknown

    The last one is the only event that's random, all others have P=1
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    O/T

    "Carob Mill
    @carobmill

    Workers on the Millennium Bridge, by reducing the headroom of the bridge while they work, have triggered an ancient by-law of London requiring that a bale of straw be hung underneath to warn river traffic:"

    https://twitter.com/carobmill/status/1714290885138202851
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    nico679 said:

    I just can’t believe Israel would target this hospital knowing the ramifications. So either there was a malfunction or this was a malfunction from rockets fired from Gaza .

    The thing that I do find strange is how a the malfunction just happened to hit of all places a hospital .

    So then we could be reaching a horrific conclusion that the hospital was targeted purposely .

    I see no motive for Israel to target this hospital , what exactly would they gain .

    So it’s either an accident or a false flag by terrorists in Gaza .

    My thoughts exactly.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    nico679 said:

    I just can’t believe Israel would target this hospital knowing the ramifications. So either there was a malfunction or this was a malfunction from rockets fired from Gaza .

    The thing that I do find strange is how a the malfunction just happened to hit of all places a hospital .

    So then we could be reaching a horrific conclusion that the hospital was targeted purposely .

    I see no motive for Israel to target this hospital , what exactly would they gain .

    So it’s either an accident or a false flag by terrorists in Gaza .

    Its not that strange, its just observation bias.

    Hamas are firing hundreds of missiles daily, a third of which land in Gaza. They don't care that many land in Gaza, as they don't value Gazan lives, if they kill some Israelis its worth it.

    All the misfires that land wayward somewhere of no importance, they don't get noticed. One that lands wayward on a hospital, that gets noticed.

    Its like if you threw hundreds of darts blindfolded in the vague vicinity of a dartboard. You might get one that hits a bullseye while hundreds go elsewhere. If the reporting then omits all others and just says "nico hits a bullseye while blindfolded" then that's accurate, but what happened was not really strange.
    Are the Hamas rockets capable of that much damage?
    If Hamas were storing ammunition in the hospital so their rocket caused secondary explosions?

    Yes, definitely!

    Although I believe hospitals are dangerous places when it comes to explosions anyway, due to the amounts of oxygen in the building? Not sure if that's legit or too much Grey's Anatomy etc.
    So now it's a malfunctioning rocket happened to hit a hospital, which happened to be doubling up as an ammunition storage facility?
    No, you don't understand, it's all the oxygen tanks, and possibly the medicinal alcohol stored in the pharmacy, and also a guy called Roberto Kerfuffle with a glass of arak standing at the front door of A&E, put all that together with a stray EU funded waterpipe missile and you can easily demolish an entire city block
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,940

    nico679 said:

    I just can’t believe Israel would target this hospital knowing the ramifications. So either there was a malfunction or this was a malfunction from rockets fired from Gaza .

    The thing that I do find strange is how a the malfunction just happened to hit of all places a hospital .

    So then we could be reaching a horrific conclusion that the hospital was targeted purposely .

    I see no motive for Israel to target this hospital , what exactly would they gain .

    So it’s either an accident or a false flag by terrorists in Gaza .

    Its not that strange, its just observation bias.

    Hamas are firing hundreds of missiles daily, a third of which land in Gaza. They don't care that many land in Gaza, as they don't value Gazan lives, if they kill some Israelis its worth it.

    All the misfires that land wayward somewhere of no importance, they don't get noticed. One that lands wayward on a hospital, that gets noticed.

    Its like if you threw hundreds of darts blindfolded in the vague vicinity of a dartboard. You might get one that hits a bullseye while hundreds go elsewhere. If the reporting then omits all others and just says "nico hits a bullseye while blindfolded" then that's accurate, but what happened was not really strange.
    Are the Hamas rockets capable of that much damage?
    If Hamas were storing ammunition in the hospital so their rocket caused secondary explosions?

    Yes, definitely!

    Although I believe hospitals are dangerous places when it comes to explosions anyway, due to the amounts of oxygen in the building? Not sure if that's legit or too much Grey's Anatomy etc.
    Indeed. A direct hit on a hospital, a hospital will generally have its own diesel generator and reserve tanks, or as you say a load of oxygen, chemicals etc. Best to wait for conclusive proof, but I can't believe Israel thought "of all the potential targets, let's blow up this one with all the civilians in it"

    My own bias is showing there, but there's footage from different angles that makes a failed rocket seem likely.

    War is hell, and it is innocent civilians that will suffer. What's conclusive is who started this, by butchering people in cold blood. And more and more innocents will die as a result.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,662

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I just can’t believe Israel would target this hospital knowing the ramifications. So either there was a malfunction or this was a malfunction from rockets fired from Gaza .

    The thing that I do find strange is how a the malfunction just happened to hit of all places a hospital .

    So then we could be reaching a horrific conclusion that the hospital was targeted purposely .

    I see no motive for Israel to target this hospital , what exactly would they gain .

    So it’s either an accident or a false flag by terrorists in Gaza .

    Its not that strange, its just observation bias.

    Hamas are firing hundreds of missiles daily, a third of which land in Gaza. They don't care that many land in Gaza, as they don't value Gazan lives, if they kill some Israelis its worth it.

    All the misfires that land wayward somewhere of no importance, they don't get noticed. One that lands wayward on a hospital, that gets noticed.

    Its like if you threw hundreds of darts blindfolded in the vague vicinity of a dartboard. You might get one that hits a bullseye while hundreds go elsewhere. If the reporting then omits all others and just says "nico hits a bullseye while blindfolded" then that's accurate, but what happened was not really strange.
    Are the Hamas rockets capable of that much damage?
    No. Unless they hit some munitions dump

    But that's where Occam's razor comes in. You need quite a sequence of unlikely events to reach the conclusion Hamas are responsible. It is not impossible, but it is a stretch

    Whereas on the other side you have the nation that is aerially bombarding Gaza every minute, and now we have some aerial bombardment of Gaza that, it seems, has gone badly wrong

    But as I say, I bet this is all largely forgotten in a week or two. We will be looking at greater enormities by then
    Which event is unlikely?

    Do this betting style:

    Event 1: Hamas were firing rockets.
    Odds? 100%

    Event 2: Some Hamas rockets misfired and landed in Gaza.
    Odds? 100%
    1/3rd of all rockets they fire misfire, they're launching hundreds a day, so 1/3 of hundreds misfired and landed in Gaza.

    Event 3: One of the misfired rockets landed on the hospital.
    Odds? Unknown

    The last one is the only event that's random, all others have P=1
    Event 4: The hospital has a large ammunition store
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908

    nico679 said:

    I just can’t believe Israel would target this hospital knowing the ramifications. So either there was a malfunction or this was a malfunction from rockets fired from Gaza .

    The thing that I do find strange is how a the malfunction just happened to hit of all places a hospital .

    So then we could be reaching a horrific conclusion that the hospital was targeted purposely .

    I see no motive for Israel to target this hospital , what exactly would they gain .

    So it’s either an accident or a false flag by terrorists in Gaza .

    Its not that strange, its just observation bias.

    Hamas are firing hundreds of missiles daily, a third of which land in Gaza. They don't care that many land in Gaza, as they don't value Gazan lives, if they kill some Israelis its worth it.

    All the misfires that land wayward somewhere of no importance, they don't get noticed. One that lands wayward on a hospital, that gets noticed.

    Its like if you threw hundreds of darts blindfolded in the vague vicinity of a dartboard. You might get one that hits a bullseye while hundreds go elsewhere. If the reporting then omits all others and just says "nico hits a bullseye while blindfolded" then that's accurate, but what happened was not really strange.
    Are the Hamas rockets capable of that much damage?
    If Hamas were storing ammunition in the hospital so their rocket caused secondary explosions?

    Yes, definitely!

    Although I believe hospitals are dangerous places when it comes to explosions anyway, due to the amounts of oxygen in the building? Not sure if that's legit or too much Grey's Anatomy etc.

    Hallelujah! Bartholomew has the answer!
  • moonshine said:
    Anna Botting blew a fuse there.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,662
    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I just can’t believe Israel would target this hospital knowing the ramifications. So either there was a malfunction or this was a malfunction from rockets fired from Gaza .

    The thing that I do find strange is how a the malfunction just happened to hit of all places a hospital .

    So then we could be reaching a horrific conclusion that the hospital was targeted purposely .

    I see no motive for Israel to target this hospital , what exactly would they gain .

    So it’s either an accident or a false flag by terrorists in Gaza .

    Its not that strange, its just observation bias.

    Hamas are firing hundreds of missiles daily, a third of which land in Gaza. They don't care that many land in Gaza, as they don't value Gazan lives, if they kill some Israelis its worth it.

    All the misfires that land wayward somewhere of no importance, they don't get noticed. One that lands wayward on a hospital, that gets noticed.

    Its like if you threw hundreds of darts blindfolded in the vague vicinity of a dartboard. You might get one that hits a bullseye while hundreds go elsewhere. If the reporting then omits all others and just says "nico hits a bullseye while blindfolded" then that's accurate, but what happened was not really strange.
    Are the Hamas rockets capable of that much damage?
    If Hamas were storing ammunition in the hospital so their rocket caused secondary explosions?

    Yes, definitely!

    Although I believe hospitals are dangerous places when it comes to explosions anyway, due to the amounts of oxygen in the building? Not sure if that's legit or too much Grey's Anatomy etc.
    So now it's a malfunctioning rocket happened to hit a hospital, which happened to be doubling up as an ammunition storage facility?
    No, you don't understand, it's all the oxygen tanks, and possibly the medicinal alcohol stored in the pharmacy, and also a guy called Roberto Kerfuffle with a glass of arak standing at the front door of A&E, put all that together with a stray EU funded waterpipe missile and you can easily demolish an entire city block
    Silly me.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908
    biggles said:

    Roger said:

    It seems like the whole area are convinced the Israelis are responsible. Obviously they hadn't consulted Batholomew and the other Middle East experts on here but this is now really serious. It seems that the missile was too big for a Hamas rocket but I'm sure there is a good answer which the PB experts will furnish us with soon.

    This is not heading for a happy ending. If the Arab street and Turkey get involved this could be calamitous.

    Turkey? What are you smoking?
    They are demonstrating in Istanbul
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747

    moonshine said:
    Anna Botting blew a fuse there.
    Never seen her before. I was embarrassed on her behalf. Doesn’t seem like she has the temperament or intellect for that job but there we are
  • moonshine said:

    moonshine said:
    Anna Botting blew a fuse there.
    Never seen her before. I was embarrassed on her behalf. Doesn’t seem like she has the temperament or intellect for that job but there we are
    Been on Sky for donkeys years.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:
    Anna Botting blew a fuse there.
    Never seen her before. I was embarrassed on her behalf. Doesn’t seem like she has the temperament or intellect for that job but there we are
    Been on Sky for donkeys years.
    As I said earlier, I don’t watch “telly”. In this case the algorithm threw that clip my way. Normally I’d dodge Sky News clips but I am procrastinating from leaving the fire / tv for bed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,989
    edited October 2023
    On camera statement...

    The Spokesman for the Israeli Defense Force, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari has announced that they have Intelligence which Confirms that the Explosion and subsequent Fire earlier tonight at Al-Ahli Arabi Baptist Hospital in Northern Gaza, which is reported to have Killed over 500 Palestinians, was caused by a Misfired-Rocket launched by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1714396572933316611?s=20
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    "Carob Mill
    @carobmill

    Workers on the Millennium Bridge, by reducing the headroom of the bridge while they work, have triggered an ancient by-law of London requiring that a bale of straw be hung underneath to warn river traffic:"

    https://twitter.com/carobmill/status/1714290885138202851

    Is this the one where they also have to shoot a Welshman every Tuesday with a flaming arrow?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    edited October 2023
    A lot of people saying the explosion was too big for a rocket, it must have been explosives that were being stored.
  • Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I just can’t believe Israel would target this hospital knowing the ramifications. So either there was a malfunction or this was a malfunction from rockets fired from Gaza .

    The thing that I do find strange is how a the malfunction just happened to hit of all places a hospital .

    So then we could be reaching a horrific conclusion that the hospital was targeted purposely .

    I see no motive for Israel to target this hospital , what exactly would they gain .

    So it’s either an accident or a false flag by terrorists in Gaza .

    Its not that strange, its just observation bias.

    Hamas are firing hundreds of missiles daily, a third of which land in Gaza. They don't care that many land in Gaza, as they don't value Gazan lives, if they kill some Israelis its worth it.

    All the misfires that land wayward somewhere of no importance, they don't get noticed. One that lands wayward on a hospital, that gets noticed.

    Its like if you threw hundreds of darts blindfolded in the vague vicinity of a dartboard. You might get one that hits a bullseye while hundreds go elsewhere. If the reporting then omits all others and just says "nico hits a bullseye while blindfolded" then that's accurate, but what happened was not really strange.
    Are the Hamas rockets capable of that much damage?
    No. Unless they hit some munitions dump

    But that's where Occam's razor comes in. You need quite a sequence of unlikely events to reach the conclusion Hamas are responsible. It is not impossible, but it is a stretch

    Whereas on the other side you have the nation that is aerially bombarding Gaza every minute, and now we have some aerial bombardment of Gaza that, it seems, has gone badly wrong

    But as I say, I bet this is all largely forgotten in a week or two. We will be looking at greater enormities by then
    We don't know whether it was an Israeli or Hamas/Islamic Jihad missile (possibly malfunctioning or intercepted by an Israeli defence system). However, I don't think there's evidence of an ammunition dump exploding; as we've seen in the videos of Russian ammunition dumps being hit, the pattern in that scenario tends to be of a series of explosions after the initial hit. That doesn't seem to be the case in videos of this horrible event.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    biggles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    "Carob Mill
    @carobmill

    Workers on the Millennium Bridge, by reducing the headroom of the bridge while they work, have triggered an ancient by-law of London requiring that a bale of straw be hung underneath to warn river traffic:"

    https://twitter.com/carobmill/status/1714290885138202851

    Is this the one where they also have to shoot a Welshman every Tuesday with a flaming arrow?
    That's six days a week of wasted opportunity....
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,968
    edited October 2023

    nico679 said:

    I just can’t believe Israel would target this hospital knowing the ramifications. So either there was a malfunction or this was a malfunction from rockets fired from Gaza .

    The thing that I do find strange is how a the malfunction just happened to hit of all places a hospital .

    So then we could be reaching a horrific conclusion that the hospital was targeted purposely .

    I see no motive for Israel to target this hospital , what exactly would they gain .

    So it’s either an accident or a false flag by terrorists in Gaza .

    Its not that strange, its just observation bias.

    Hamas are firing hundreds of missiles daily, a third of which land in Gaza. They don't care that many land in Gaza, as they don't value Gazan lives, if they kill some Israelis its worth it.

    All the misfires that land wayward somewhere of no importance, they don't get noticed. One that lands wayward on a hospital, that gets noticed.

    Its like if you threw hundreds of darts blindfolded in the vague vicinity of a dartboard. You might get one that hits a bullseye while hundreds go elsewhere. If the reporting then omits all others and just says "nico hits a bullseye while blindfolded" then that's accurate, but what happened was not really strange.
    Are the Hamas rockets capable of that much damage?
    If Hamas were storing ammunition in the hospital so their rocket caused secondary explosions?

    Yes, definitely!

    Although I believe hospitals are dangerous places when it comes to explosions anyway, due to the amounts of oxygen in the building? Not sure if that's legit or too much Grey's Anatomy etc.
    So now it's a malfunctioning rocket happened to hit a hospital, which happened to be doubling up as an ammunition storage facility?
    By far the most probable outcome yes.

    Hamas are hiding munitions everywhere, its what they do. There's form here.

    However they don't need to have hit munition storage, as was said there's plenty of other reasons that a hit on a hospital can be extremely deadly. There's oxygen, generators, power, chemicals, crowding, all sorts of reasons without needing munitions as a secondary factor - even if it is a probable one.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    Roger said:

    biggles said:

    Roger said:

    It seems like the whole area are convinced the Israelis are responsible. Obviously they hadn't consulted Batholomew and the other Middle East experts on here but this is now really serious. It seems that the missile was too big for a Hamas rocket but I'm sure there is a good answer which the PB experts will furnish us with soon.

    This is not heading for a happy ending. If the Arab street and Turkey get involved this could be calamitous.

    Turkey? What are you smoking?
    They are demonstrating in Istanbul
    Which comes with precisely zero chance of any change in Turkish policy.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:
    Anna Botting blew a fuse there.
    Never seen her before. I was embarrassed on her behalf. Doesn’t seem like she has the temperament or intellect for that job but there we are
    She's been on Sky News for about 20 years at least.
  • biggles said:

    Roger said:

    biggles said:

    Roger said:

    It seems like the whole area are convinced the Israelis are responsible. Obviously they hadn't consulted Batholomew and the other Middle East experts on here but this is now really serious. It seems that the missile was too big for a Hamas rocket but I'm sure there is a good answer which the PB experts will furnish us with soon.

    This is not heading for a happy ending. If the Arab street and Turkey get involved this could be calamitous.

    Turkey? What are you smoking?
    They are demonstrating in Istanbul
    Which comes with precisely zero chance of any change in Turkish policy.
    Rogerdamus can't be expected to understand Turkiye, let alone get its name right.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I just can’t believe Israel would target this hospital knowing the ramifications. So either there was a malfunction or this was a malfunction from rockets fired from Gaza .

    The thing that I do find strange is how a the malfunction just happened to hit of all places a hospital .

    So then we could be reaching a horrific conclusion that the hospital was targeted purposely .

    I see no motive for Israel to target this hospital , what exactly would they gain .

    So it’s either an accident or a false flag by terrorists in Gaza .

    Its not that strange, its just observation bias.

    Hamas are firing hundreds of missiles daily, a third of which land in Gaza. They don't care that many land in Gaza, as they don't value Gazan lives, if they kill some Israelis its worth it.

    All the misfires that land wayward somewhere of no importance, they don't get noticed. One that lands wayward on a hospital, that gets noticed.

    Its like if you threw hundreds of darts blindfolded in the vague vicinity of a dartboard. You might get one that hits a bullseye while hundreds go elsewhere. If the reporting then omits all others and just says "nico hits a bullseye while blindfolded" then that's accurate, but what happened was not really strange.
    Are the Hamas rockets capable of that much damage?
    No. Unless they hit some munitions dump

    But that's where Occam's razor comes in. You need quite a sequence of unlikely events to reach the conclusion Hamas are responsible. It is not impossible, but it is a stretch

    Whereas on the other side you have the nation that is aerially bombarding Gaza every minute, and now we have some aerial bombardment of Gaza that, it seems, has gone badly wrong

    But as I say, I bet this is all largely forgotten in a week or two. We will be looking at greater enormities by then
    Very likely it did hit a munitions dump.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Andy_JS said:

    A lot of people saying the explosion was too big for a rocket, it must have been explosives that were being stored.

    A member of the Knesset saying on Newsnight a missile blew up in the sky over the hospital and fragments landed on stored munitions at the hospital causing the explosion or words to that effect .
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    nico679 said:

    I just can’t believe Israel would target this hospital knowing the ramifications. So either there was a malfunction or this was a malfunction from rockets fired from Gaza .

    The thing that I do find strange is how a the malfunction just happened to hit of all places a hospital .

    So then we could be reaching a horrific conclusion that the hospital was targeted purposely .

    I see no motive for Israel to target this hospital , what exactly would they gain .

    So it’s either an accident or a false flag by terrorists in Gaza .

    Its not that strange, its just observation bias.

    Hamas are firing hundreds of missiles daily, a third of which land in Gaza. They don't care that many land in Gaza, as they don't value Gazan lives, if they kill some Israelis its worth it.

    All the misfires that land wayward somewhere of no importance, they don't get noticed. One that lands wayward on a hospital, that gets noticed.

    Its like if you threw hundreds of darts blindfolded in the vague vicinity of a dartboard. You might get one that hits a bullseye while hundreds go elsewhere. If the reporting then omits all others and just says "nico hits a bullseye while blindfolded" then that's accurate, but what happened was not really strange.
    Are the Hamas rockets capable of that much damage?
    If Hamas were storing ammunition in the hospital so their rocket caused secondary explosions?

    Yes, definitely!

    Although I believe hospitals are dangerous places when it comes to explosions anyway, due to the amounts of oxygen in the building? Not sure if that's legit or too much Grey's Anatomy etc.
    FFS this is on you. Stop wishing it away and making up implausible stuff..

    The cycle of violence will escalate further.

    It was obvious the green lighting of genocide by Sunak SKS would result in a massacre like this
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,224

    On camera statement...

    The Spokesman for the Israeli Defense Force, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari has announced that they have Intelligence which Confirms that the Explosion and subsequent Fire earlier tonight at Al-Ahli Arabi Baptist Hospital in Northern Gaza, which is reported to have Killed over 500 Palestinians, was caused by a Misfired-Rocket launched by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1714396572933316611?s=20

    I think @RochdalePioneers had this right earlier. Either Israel are pretty convinced they’re right on this, or they have massively upped the stakes by deliberately lying to try to pin this on someone else.

    Though I guess the opprobrium you’d get from lying is probably swallowed up by that which you’d get from bombing a hospital.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908
    biggles said:

    Roger said:

    biggles said:

    Roger said:

    It seems like the whole area are convinced the Israelis are responsible. Obviously they hadn't consulted Batholomew and the other Middle East experts on here but this is now really serious. It seems that the missile was too big for a Hamas rocket but I'm sure there is a good answer which the PB experts will furnish us with soon.

    This is not heading for a happy ending. If the Arab street and Turkey get involved this could be calamitous.

    Turkey? What are you smoking?
    They are demonstrating in Istanbul
    Which comes with precisely zero chance of any change in Turkish policy.
    The Israelis have asked their citizens to leave the country
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Andy_JS said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:
    Anna Botting blew a fuse there.
    Never seen her before. I was embarrassed on her behalf. Doesn’t seem like she has the temperament or intellect for that job but there we are
    She's been on Sky News for about 20 years at least.
    Should I be impressed by that? Never heard of her. And she went off a cliff in this interview.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,781
    maxh said:

    On camera statement...

    The Spokesman for the Israeli Defense Force, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari has announced that they have Intelligence which Confirms that the Explosion and subsequent Fire earlier tonight at Al-Ahli Arabi Baptist Hospital in Northern Gaza, which is reported to have Killed over 500 Palestinians, was caused by a Misfired-Rocket launched by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1714396572933316611?s=20

    I think @RochdalePioneers had this right earlier. Either Israel are pretty convinced they’re right on this, or they have massively upped the stakes by deliberately lying to try to pin this on someone else.

    Though I guess the opprobrium you’d get from lying is probably swallowed up by that which you’d get from bombing a hospital.
    ... Or it's all just a hot mess and everyone hopes yet another atrocity will have taken over the headlines by tomorrow.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Hard to believe sensible PB-ers are going to such lengths to deny probable Israeli culpability here

    Now: we don't know for sure. That is true. And we probably never will

    But really, what country is dropping huge bombs on Gaza? Israel. This is a huge bomb which just dropped on Gaza
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    I’m much more inclined to believe the Israelis than a bunch of Hamas terrorists.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,989
    edited October 2023
    maxh said:

    On camera statement...

    The Spokesman for the Israeli Defense Force, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari has announced that they have Intelligence which Confirms that the Explosion and subsequent Fire earlier tonight at Al-Ahli Arabi Baptist Hospital in Northern Gaza, which is reported to have Killed over 500 Palestinians, was caused by a Misfired-Rocket launched by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1714396572933316611?s=20

    I think @RochdalePioneers had this right earlier. Either Israel are pretty convinced they’re right on this, or they have massively upped the stakes by deliberately lying to try to pin this on someone else.

    Though I guess the opprobrium you’d get from lying is probably swallowed up by that which you’d get from bombing a hospital.
    Ultimately I think they will have to show receipts, which will mean burning some intel sources.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,664

    Go home news headline writers - there is no topping this.



    https://twitter.com/jamiesont/status/1714363647663747195

    We do have someone with a paramotor who buzzes about on calm days from a field about 5 miles NE of Doncaster. He buzzed me at no more than 300ft (below max drone height) about a week ago. Wasn't terribly impressed.
    Then he was breaking the law.
    Unless landing, no aircraft (including a paramotor) may be within 500' in a direct line of any person, vehicle, or structure. He could legally be at 300', but only if the total distance between him and you (or any other person) was under 500'
    Indeed.

    It was a rural location on an estate in the middle of nowhere, but still, it definitely looked illegal to me.

    Even if I was seeing it wrong and he was really at 501ft it was still pretty rude.

    I can see why someone might get annoyed by it but I can't say 'Hamas' was my first thought...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,706
    The fog of war has descended very rapidly.

  • Leon said:

    Hard to believe sensible PB-ers are going to such lengths to deny probable Israeli culpability here

    Now: we don't know for sure. That is true. And we probably never will

    But really, what country is dropping huge bombs on Gaza? Israel. This is a huge bomb which just dropped on Gaza

    What part of Hamas are dropping bombs on Gaza do you not understand?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    Roger said:

    biggles said:

    Roger said:

    biggles said:

    Roger said:

    It seems like the whole area are convinced the Israelis are responsible. Obviously they hadn't consulted Batholomew and the other Middle East experts on here but this is now really serious. It seems that the missile was too big for a Hamas rocket but I'm sure there is a good answer which the PB experts will furnish us with soon.

    This is not heading for a happy ending. If the Arab street and Turkey get involved this could be calamitous.

    Turkey? What are you smoking?
    They are demonstrating in Istanbul
    Which comes with precisely zero chance of any change in Turkish policy.
    The Israelis have asked their citizens to leave the country
    Hmm. Maybe. But Turkish protests against Israel are pretty baked in.

    Erfogan’s son being involved was interesting but I still think these priests are nothing.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    "An undersea telecoms cable connecting Estonia and Sweden has been damaged, the Swedish government has announced.

    Civil defence minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin said the cable was damaged but not completely destroyed.

    The cable is believed to have been affected at the same time as a gas pipeline connecting Finland and Estonia was damaged earlier this month."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67138269
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908

    biggles said:

    Roger said:

    biggles said:

    Roger said:

    It seems like the whole area are convinced the Israelis are responsible. Obviously they hadn't consulted Batholomew and the other Middle East experts on here but this is now really serious. It seems that the missile was too big for a Hamas rocket but I'm sure there is a good answer which the PB experts will furnish us with soon.

    This is not heading for a happy ending. If the Arab street and Turkey get involved this could be calamitous.

    Turkey? What are you smoking?
    They are demonstrating in Istanbul
    Which comes with precisely zero chance of any change in Turkish policy.
    Rogerdamus can't be expected to understand Turkiye, let alone get its name right.
    I have worked there about 20 times which would mean I've spent about half a year there . I know Istanbul very well
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    nico679 said:

    I just can’t believe Israel would target this hospital knowing the ramifications. So either there was a malfunction or this was a malfunction from rockets fired from Gaza .

    The thing that I do find strange is how a the malfunction just happened to hit of all places a hospital .

    So then we could be reaching a horrific conclusion that the hospital was targeted purposely .

    I see no motive for Israel to target this hospital , what exactly would they gain .

    So it’s either an accident or a false flag by terrorists in Gaza .

    Its not that strange, its just observation bias.

    Hamas are firing hundreds of missiles daily, a third of which land in Gaza. They don't care that many land in Gaza, as they don't value Gazan lives, if they kill some Israelis its worth it.

    All the misfires that land wayward somewhere of no importance, they don't get noticed. One that lands wayward on a hospital, that gets noticed.

    Its like if you threw hundreds of darts blindfolded in the vague vicinity of a dartboard. You might get one that hits a bullseye while hundreds go elsewhere. If the reporting then omits all others and just says "nico hits a bullseye while blindfolded" then that's accurate, but what happened was not really strange.
    Are the Hamas rockets capable of that much damage?
    If Hamas were storing ammunition in the hospital so their rocket caused secondary explosions?

    Yes, definitely!

    Although I believe hospitals are dangerous places when it comes to explosions anyway, due to the amounts of oxygen in the building? Not sure if that's legit or too much Grey's Anatomy etc.
    So now it's a malfunctioning rocket happened to hit a hospital, which happened to be doubling up as an ammunition storage facility?
    Bart has lost it.

    Time for bed methinks
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Leon said:

    Hard to believe sensible PB-ers are going to such lengths to deny probable Israeli culpability here

    Now: we don't know for sure. That is true. And we probably never will

    But really, what country is dropping huge bombs on Gaza? Israel. This is a huge bomb which just dropped on Gaza

    I don’t know what happened. But I am minded to believe the imperfect democracy above the fascist death cult. The uk press was pretty shameful in the first hour, for instinctively flinching the opposite way.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,706
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Hard to believe sensible PB-ers are going to such lengths to deny probable Israeli culpability here

    Now: we don't know for sure. That is true. And we probably never will

    But really, what country is dropping huge bombs on Gaza? Israel. This is a huge bomb which just dropped on Gaza

    I don’t know what happened. But I am minded to believe the imperfect democracy above the fascist death cult. The uk press was pretty shameful in the first hour, for instinctively flinching the opposite way.
    What the hell has Israel to gain by doing this?

    Nothing.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    Leon said:

    The sad thing is, I reckon this hospital horror will be forgotten within a week, because new and greater horrors await us

    I wish I didn't think that, but I do. This is just the beginning

    You are right Leon
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,706
    Andy_JS said:

    "An undersea telecoms cable connecting Estonia and Sweden has been damaged, the Swedish government has announced.

    Civil defence minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin said the cable was damaged but not completely destroyed.

    The cable is believed to have been affected at the same time as a gas pipeline connecting Finland and Estonia was damaged earlier this month."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67138269

    We - as in the europeans/west - are basically already at war.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908
    Why do Israel put forward as their spokesmen on Newsnight people who make Goebbels look benign? This one is a shocker
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Hard to believe sensible PB-ers are going to such lengths to deny probable Israeli culpability here

    Now: we don't know for sure. That is true. And we probably never will

    But really, what country is dropping huge bombs on Gaza? Israel. This is a huge bomb which just dropped on Gaza

    I don’t know what happened. But I am minded to believe the imperfect democracy above the fascist death cult. The uk press was pretty shameful in the first hour, for instinctively flinching the opposite way.
    What the hell has Israel to gain by doing this?

    Nothing.

    It makes no sense to deliberately target it the day before the US President arrives. Leon’s point is not wholly without merit, that Israel is dropping lots of ordnance and mistakes happen. But that argument goes both ways. And the other side have a motive and sick mental capacity to do it on purpose too.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    I just can’t believe Israel would target this hospital knowing the ramifications. So either there was a malfunction or this was a malfunction from rockets fired from Gaza .

    The thing that I do find strange is how a the malfunction just happened to hit of all places a hospital .

    So then we could be reaching a horrific conclusion that the hospital was targeted purposely .

    I see no motive for Israel to target this hospital , what exactly would they gain .

    So it’s either an accident or a false flag by terrorists in Gaza .

    No, it's an accident. If you are constantly bombing a crowded city - which is what Israel is doing (and probably with justification, given October 7) - then eventually you will make a mistake and bomb the wrong target, or some ordnance goes awry. As we see

    That has to be the default assumption absent some quite compelling evidence. Anyone who says otherwise, without that evidence, is propagandizing
    Hamas are constantly bombing the city too, so why do you assume Israel did it?

    The only difference is that Israel uses precision guided ammunition while Hamas do not.

    Occam's razor says that Hamas did it.
    Hamas are desperate to win back some public sympathy.

    I personally believe they are capable of anything to achieve that.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    biggles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    "Carob Mill
    @carobmill

    Workers on the Millennium Bridge, by reducing the headroom of the bridge while they work, have triggered an ancient by-law of London requiring that a bale of straw be hung underneath to warn river traffic:"

    https://twitter.com/carobmill/status/1714290885138202851

    Is this the one where they also have to shoot a Welshman every Tuesday with a flaming arrow?
    The Welshman is getting pretty fed up, and is considering changing his weekly visit to London to a Thursday.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Roger said:

    Why do Israel put forward as their spokesmen on Newsnight people who make Goebbels look benign? This one is a shocker

    I suspect you’ll read that back and realise it’s not your finest comment ever
  • ISRAEL RAID KILLS 500

    BIG letters on Al Jazeera's TV channel (Freeview 235) right now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,706
    Leon said:

    Hard to believe sensible PB-ers are going to such lengths to deny probable Israeli culpability here

    Now: we don't know for sure. That is true. And we probably never will

    But really, what country is dropping huge bombs on Gaza? Israel. This is a huge bomb which just dropped on Gaza

    Why would they?

    Mistake?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    edited October 2023
    Just watched the Richard Madeley / Layla Moran interview, and can't see what all the fuss is about. Layla Moran didn't seem particularly bothered by the question at the time.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    edited October 2023
    Given Biden’s visit tomorrow it would be insane for the IDF to target a hospital .

    Someone mentioned Occams Razor earlier and I think that’s apt for this .

    A malfunction by either the IDF or rocket fired from Gaza seems the most likely or less likely a desperate false flag operation .


  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,417

    biggles said:

    Roger said:

    biggles said:

    Roger said:

    It seems like the whole area are convinced the Israelis are responsible. Obviously they hadn't consulted Batholomew and the other Middle East experts on here but this is now really serious. It seems that the missile was too big for a Hamas rocket but I'm sure there is a good answer which the PB experts will furnish us with soon.

    This is not heading for a happy ending. If the Arab street and Turkey get involved this could be calamitous.

    Turkey? What are you smoking?
    They are demonstrating in Istanbul
    Which comes with precisely zero chance of any change in Turkish policy.
    Rogerdamus can't be expected to understand Turkiye, let alone get its name right.
    He is getting it right. We have a word in English for Turkey, as knowledge of Turkey has been part of our culture for a long time. See also Florence; see also Switzerland; see also Germany.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    I’m much more inclined to believe the Israelis than a bunch of Hamas terrorists.

    Believe Oman UAE Saudi Arabia or are they all Hamas terrorists now?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,989
    edited October 2023
    Roger said:

    Why do Israel put forward as their spokesmen on Newsnight people who make Goebbels look benign? This one is a shocker

    Because nobody watches Newsnight.....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552

    I’m much more inclined to believe the Israelis than a bunch of Hamas terrorists.

    Believe Oman UAE Saudi Arabia or are they all Hamas terrorists now?
    Israel is saying the rocket was from Islamic Jihad, not Hamas.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,241

    I’m much more inclined to believe the Israelis than a bunch of Hamas terrorists.

    Believe Oman UAE Saudi Arabia or are they all Hamas terrorists now?
    How would they know?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    ISRAEL RAID KILLS 500

    BIG letters on Al Jazeera's TV channel (Freeview 235) right now.

    HAMAS terrorists the lot of em!!
  • German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz and his Group of Advisors were forced to Evacuate their Aircraft and lay on the Tarmac before being rushed to a Bomb Shelter at Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv during a Rocket Barrage launched against the City earlier tonight.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,332
    We are all aware of where in the hospital complex this explosion hit right?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Hard to believe sensible PB-ers are going to such lengths to deny probable Israeli culpability here

    Now: we don't know for sure. That is true. And we probably never will

    But really, what country is dropping huge bombs on Gaza? Israel. This is a huge bomb which just dropped on Gaza

    I don’t know what happened. But I am minded to believe the imperfect democracy above the fascist death cult. The uk press was pretty shameful in the first hour, for instinctively flinching the opposite way.
    What the hell has Israel to gain by doing this?

    Nothing.

    They are trying to spread fear. Whether it's a mistake or not it's a logical conclusion to what they've been doing for the last ten days.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,624
    edited October 2023

    German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz and his Group of Advisors were forced to Evacuate their Aircraft and lay on the Tarmac before being rushed to a Bomb Shelter at Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv during a Rocket Barrage launched against the City earlier tonight.

    The potential for an Archduke Ferdinand moment has got to be relatively high. Leaders may have been lulled into a false sense of securtiy by all those visits to Kyiv.
  • Roger said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Hard to believe sensible PB-ers are going to such lengths to deny probable Israeli culpability here

    Now: we don't know for sure. That is true. And we probably never will

    But really, what country is dropping huge bombs on Gaza? Israel. This is a huge bomb which just dropped on Gaza

    I don’t know what happened. But I am minded to believe the imperfect democracy above the fascist death cult. The uk press was pretty shameful in the first hour, for instinctively flinching the opposite way.
    What the hell has Israel to gain by doing this?

    Nothing.

    They are trying to spread fear. Whether it's a mistake or not it's a logical conclusion to what they've been doing for the last ten days.
    No, that's what Hamas and its ilk are trying to do.

    And Hamas and its ilk are firing rockets at Gaza (as in firing at Israel while knowing full well that a third will hit Gaza instead).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,624
    Macron says that France condemns the attack on the hospital, without attributing any blame.

    https://x.com/emmanuelmacron/status/1714400309210988792
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,706
    moonshine said:

    Andy_JS said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:
    Anna Botting blew a fuse there.
    Never seen her before. I was embarrassed on her behalf. Doesn’t seem like she has the temperament or intellect for that job but there we are
    She's been on Sky News for about 20 years at least.
    Should I be impressed by that? Never heard of her. And she went off a cliff in this interview.
    The interesting bit is her emotion riled the spokesperson, who was a UK ambassador iirc (so used to being diplomatic), into a rant about "time to destroy Hamas" etc etc.

    This is why Israel is walking into a trap. Driven, understandably by raw pain and anger, they will invade with 10,000s of Israel reservists and walk into a house by house blood bath.

  • moonshine said:

    Andy_JS said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:
    Anna Botting blew a fuse there.
    Never seen her before. I was embarrassed on her behalf. Doesn’t seem like she has the temperament or intellect for that job but there we are
    She's been on Sky News for about 20 years at least.
    Should I be impressed by that? Never heard of her. And she went off a cliff in this interview.
    The interesting bit is her emotion riled the spokesperson, who was a UK ambassador iirc (so used to being diplomatic), into a rant about "time to destroy Hamas" etc etc.

    This is why Israel is walking into a trap. Driven, understandably by raw pain and anger, they will invade with 10,000s of Israel reservists and walk into a house by house blood bath.

    It is time to destroy Hamas. It is past time to destroy Hamas.

    Just as ISIS was destroyed, just as the Tamil Tigers were destroyed.

    Some here seem to be under a myth that you can't destroy terror groups. You can, and Israel should.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,417
    nico679 said:

    Given Biden’s visit tomorrow it would be insane for the IDF to target a hospital .

    Someone mentioned Occams Razor earlier and I think that’s apt for this .

    A malfunction by either the IDF or rocket fired from Gaza seems the most likely or less likely a desperate false flag operation .


    The truth can be grimmer than we are aware of. Hamas could have been using the hospital as a base for military operations to use it as a human shield, and the Israelis could have then decided to hit it regardless.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,706
    The curve ball response from Israel would have been to turn the other cheek - at least for time being - other than special forces sent to try and rescue hostages plus negotiate prisoner swaps.

    It would have blown Iran's play and wrong footed Hamas.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454

    I’m much more inclined to believe the Israelis than a bunch of Hamas terrorists.

    Believe Oman UAE Saudi Arabia or are they all Hamas terrorists now?
    Saudis are Geordies not sure about the rest
  • President Biden will postpone his travel to Jordan and a planned meeting with King Abdullah II of Jordan, President Abbas of the Palestinian Authority and President Sisi of Egypt, the White House says.
  • biggles said:

    Roger said:

    biggles said:

    Roger said:

    It seems like the whole area are convinced the Israelis are responsible. Obviously they hadn't consulted Batholomew and the other Middle East experts on here but this is now really serious. It seems that the missile was too big for a Hamas rocket but I'm sure there is a good answer which the PB experts will furnish us with soon.

    This is not heading for a happy ending. If the Arab street and Turkey get involved this could be calamitous.

    Turkey? What are you smoking?
    They are demonstrating in Istanbul
    Which comes with precisely zero chance of any change in Turkish policy.
    Rogerdamus can't be expected to understand Turkiye, let alone get its name right.
    He is getting it right. We have a word in English for Turkey, as knowledge of Turkey has been part of our culture for a long time. See also Florence; see also Switzerland; see also Germany.
    The Turks want us to use THEIR name for Turkey, but they call OUR country Büyük Britanya ve Kuzey İrlanda Birleşik Krallığı.
  • I’m much more inclined to believe the Israelis than a bunch of Hamas terrorists.

    Believe Oman UAE Saudi Arabia or are they all Hamas terrorists now?
    Saudis are Geordies not sure about the rest
    Hi @Gallowgate

    I get your username!


  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,417

    biggles said:

    Roger said:

    biggles said:

    Roger said:

    It seems like the whole area are convinced the Israelis are responsible. Obviously they hadn't consulted Batholomew and the other Middle East experts on here but this is now really serious. It seems that the missile was too big for a Hamas rocket but I'm sure there is a good answer which the PB experts will furnish us with soon.

    This is not heading for a happy ending. If the Arab street and Turkey get involved this could be calamitous.

    Turkey? What are you smoking?
    They are demonstrating in Istanbul
    Which comes with precisely zero chance of any change in Turkish policy.
    Rogerdamus can't be expected to understand Turkiye, let alone get its name right.
    He is getting it right. We have a word in English for Turkey, as knowledge of Turkey has been part of our culture for a long time. See also Florence; see also Switzerland; see also Germany.
    The Turks want us to use THEIR name for Turkey, but they call OUR country Büyük Britanya ve Kuzey İrlanda Birleşik Krallığı.
    Quite. And has anyone ascertained that they actually give a shit?

    *If they did, it wouldn't stop me calling it Turkey, but it would be interesting.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,706
    For a moment, it was unclear to reporters if President Biden would take off for the Middle East at all. But he has departed for Tel Aviv, according to Peter Baker, the chief White House correspondent for The New York Times, who is aboard Air Force One.

    NY Times
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,706

    nico679 said:

    Given Biden’s visit tomorrow it would be insane for the IDF to target a hospital .

    Someone mentioned Occams Razor earlier and I think that’s apt for this .

    A malfunction by either the IDF or rocket fired from Gaza seems the most likely or less likely a desperate false flag operation .


    The truth can be grimmer than we are aware of. Hamas could have been using the hospital as a base for military operations to use it as a human shield, and the Israelis could have then decided to hit it regardless.
    Not now they wouldn't. Biden arrives tonight.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660

    I’m much more inclined to believe the Israelis than a bunch of Hamas terrorists.

    Believe Oman UAE Saudi Arabia or are they all Hamas terrorists now?
    How would they know?
    If Hamas had rockets that were this powerful do you not think they would have been used while the IDF were asleep on 7.10.23
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    edited October 2023

    moonshine said:

    Andy_JS said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:
    Anna Botting blew a fuse there.
    Never seen her before. I was embarrassed on her behalf. Doesn’t seem like she has the temperament or intellect for that job but there we are
    She's been on Sky News for about 20 years at least.
    Should I be impressed by that? Never heard of her. And she went off a cliff in this interview.
    The interesting bit is her emotion riled the spokesperson, who was a UK ambassador iirc (so used to being diplomatic), into a rant about "time to destroy Hamas" etc etc.

    This is why Israel is walking into a trap. Driven, understandably by raw pain and anger, they will invade with 10,000s of Israel reservists and walk into a house by house blood bath.

    Can’t Hamas just move further south and blend in with those evacuating . Some of their leadership are in other countries so even if you kill a lot of their members you’ve still got those directing things and there’s a conveyor belt of budding new members waiting in the wings after seeing their families wiped out by the IDF.

    You really need the Palestinians to turn against Hamas and for new leadership in Gaza and at the same the removal of Netanyahu and his rancid racist cabinet.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,417

    nico679 said:

    Given Biden’s visit tomorrow it would be insane for the IDF to target a hospital .

    Someone mentioned Occams Razor earlier and I think that’s apt for this .

    A malfunction by either the IDF or rocket fired from Gaza seems the most likely or less likely a desperate false flag operation .


    The truth can be grimmer than we are aware of. Hamas could have been using the hospital as a base for military operations to use it as a human shield, and the Israelis could have then decided to hit it regardless.
    Not now they wouldn't. Biden arrives tonight.
    I doubt they're massively scared of Joe Biden. They're not Rishi Sunak.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    Roger said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Hard to believe sensible PB-ers are going to such lengths to deny probable Israeli culpability here

    Now: we don't know for sure. That is true. And we probably never will

    But really, what country is dropping huge bombs on Gaza? Israel. This is a huge bomb which just dropped on Gaza

    I don’t know what happened. But I am minded to believe the imperfect democracy above the fascist death cult. The uk press was pretty shameful in the first hour, for instinctively flinching the opposite way.
    What the hell has Israel to gain by doing this?

    Nothing.

    They are trying to spread fear. Whether it's a mistake or not it's a logical conclusion to what they've been doing for the last ten days.
    Hi @Roger - while I disagree with you, I owe you an apology for last night: I misread 'place' as 'peace' and therefore completely misinterpreted your post.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    You’d think that the IDF have strong evidence . Would Biden turn up with the knowledge that the IDF was responsible . They must surely have guaranteed to Biden that he wouldn’t be humiliated in meeting Netanyahu . Am I being too logical here !
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,586

    nico679 said:

    Given Biden’s visit tomorrow it would be insane for the IDF to target a hospital .

    Someone mentioned Occams Razor earlier and I think that’s apt for this .

    A malfunction by either the IDF or rocket fired from Gaza seems the most likely or less likely a desperate false flag operation .


    The truth can be grimmer than we are aware of. Hamas could have been using the hospital as a base for military operations to use it as a human shield, and the Israelis could have then decided to hit it regardless.
    Not now they wouldn't. Biden arrives tonight.
    Is it possible Biden is so old he doesn't care if he dies? But surely he would follow advice against, to prevent those around him dying.

    So they must believe Hamas wouldn't be so stupid, or that they don't have the capability.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908

    I’m much more inclined to believe the Israelis than a bunch of Hamas terrorists.

    Believe Oman UAE Saudi Arabia or are they all Hamas terrorists now?
    How would they know?
    If Hamas had rockets that were this powerful do you not think they would have been used while the IDF were asleep on 7.10.23
    Indeed. Apparently the rocket was huge. If Hamas had such rockets you wonder why they've never used them in the past?. It's also odd that if during the last year Israel have been able to target Hamas leaders by sending bombs down their chimneys that they allowed fully functioning bomb factories to exist without even knowing of their existence
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Oh

    "Wow. Masses of protesters surge through the streets of Lebanon, en route to the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, in response to Israel’s bombing of Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza"

    https://x.com/sahouraxo/status/1714403691644547464?s=20
This discussion has been closed.