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How death and ill health have ceased to be the main causes of by-elections – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,350
    Andy_JS said:

    One of the most interesting articles I've read recently.

    "The happy dysfunction of Dover
    Americans will never create communities like the British
    By Chris Arnade"

    https://unherd.com/2023/10/the-happy-dysfunction-of-dover/

    Interesting that in a walk from Dover to Worthing he only focuses on the troubled and the poor, the grim and the grimy. Whilst we all know many coastal towns are run down that walk is going to take in quite a few affluent areas too: Rye, Eastbourne, Brighton to mention a few.

    Was he hoping for a commission from the NYT?
  • Options
    Foxy said:

    On topic, a really quite striking shift in the reason for byelections.

    Is it that our MPs are now more badly behaved? Or is it that they are better policed?

    Or is it just that MPs are younger, more likely to resign for other opportunities, and in better health?

    I think voters more sympathetic to a party that loses an MP for health reasons than one to misbehavior.

    I think better policed. The ability to actually deal with MPs bad behaviour in away that leads to recall has only existed since 2015. How many of these MPs would have hung on without that?
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,497
    Remarkable turnout from around the world from Poles living abroad . Over 600,000 voted. The votes get added just to Warsaw’s votes which is already an opposition strong hold but still just shows how important the vote was .

    Young people queuing to the early hours to vote was just beautiful to see . The reason of course that they had to queue wasn’t just the high turnout but more attempts by the rancid PiS to make it harder for opposition parties who do very well in more urban areas .

    Young people did indeed take back their future from the over 60s who were happy to see Polish democracy die in a ditch .

    You’d think they’d know better having lived during Communism , utterly shameful that they were happy to be handmaidens to the collapse of democracy in Poland .
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,196

    The true picture of A&E waiting times in Wales has been seriously under-reported for a decade, senior doctors have told the BBC.

    The Royal College of Emergency Medicine (RCEM) claims it has established thousands of hours are missed from monthly figures.

    Senior A&E doctors have been raising the issue for months.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-67056279

    Round of applause to those PBers who have been pointing out the ineptitude of the Welsh government.

    While clearly open to abuse and fiddling the figures the Welsh system makes more sense.

    If a patient breaches the 4 hour target while awaiting results of investigations that is quite different to breaching purely because ED is swamped with patients.

    Not that anyone seems to care about the 4 hour target anymore. The 12 hour one is not looking great either.

  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,453
    Sandpit said:

    Good morning everyone!

    I was quite shocked by how old, and indeed feeble, Biden, looked on TV yesterday.

    Irrespective of your views of Joe Biden as a politician, as a human being it really can’t be in his best interests to be still wanting to do this job for more than another five years. He’s clearly in very poor health, which is noticeably deteriorating.

    The Dems really should open up their primary process, and choose someone else.
    He looks and sounds older than I do. And I’m 85.

    Apart from the fact that he can walk unaided! Which I can’t!
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,868

    Roger said:

    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    The Spectator Index
    @spectatorindex
    ·
    30m
    BREAKING: Iran's foreign minister says 'if we do not defend Gaza today, tomorrow we will have to defend against bombs in our own cities'.


    Brace...

    Hmm. This is no time for self-aggrandizement, but when I said at the beginning that Hamas had 'played a blinder' in the timing and brutality of its assault on Israel I was roundly abused on PB. In what way is this not turning out exactly as the maniacs of Hamas intended?
    When it comes to the Middle East PB has a blindspot. Bartholomew wants to know why Gaza's Arab neighbours wont take the 2,400,000 Gazans in and let Isreal destroy the place.*

    *I should add that's not Bartholomew's only blind spot.
    Israel destroyed the peace? Did you notice who invaded whom last week Roger? I'd say the blind spots aren't just on the side of those supporting the Israelis.
    If you keep a population ieffectively imprisoned for 17 years with no possibility of bettering their circumstances eventually they will feel they have nothing to lose. They are no less human beings than the Israelis. To use an Arab expression 'If you beat a dog for long enough it'll bite you'
    I think some of the atrocities committed by Hamas, Roger, do suggest that Hamas are lesser human beings and not just than the Israelis but all of us.
    Roger was talking about Gazans. You switched to talking about Hamas. These are not the same thing.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,350
    Sandpit said:

    Good morning everyone!

    I was quite shocked by how old, and indeed feeble, Biden, looked on TV yesterday.

    Irrespective of your views of Joe Biden as a politician, as a human being it really can’t be in his best interests to be still wanting to do this job for more than another five years. He’s clearly in very poor health, which is noticeably deteriorating.

    The Dems really should open up their primary process, and choose someone else.
    Could still happen - as I have pointed out several times on here, if Biden has decided not to run he's not going to say so until February at the earliest. I'd punt at 40% to 60% he won't stand.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,458

    Foxy said:

    On topic, a really quite striking shift in the reason for byelections.

    Is it that our MPs are now more badly behaved? Or is it that they are better policed?

    Or is it just that MPs are younger, more likely to resign for other opportunities, and in better health?

    I think voters more sympathetic to a party that loses an MP for health reasons than one to misbehavior.

    I think better policed. The ability to actually deal with MPs bad behaviour in away that leads to recall has only existed since 2015. How many of these MPs would have hung on without that?
    Better policed, but at the same time, I think politics attracts worse people than in the past.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,281
    Nigelb said:

    Yokes said:

    Well now, apparently Biden is due in Israel on Wednesday.

    This might seem really daft, but the sign posting of his arrival, is that not a bit of a security risk, given there are lots of Islamists firing off rockets morning, noon and night.
    It delays the launch of the Gaza incursion. More time for civilians to escape.

    Yes a risk, but a calculated one. I wonder if that was Blinken’s last card to play in the cabinet meeting?
    The trip is at Netenyahu's invitation, and the US has said that's not what he's doing.
    Though of course it might tend to have that effect.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/16/joe-biden-visit-israel-00121867
    John Kirby, the National Security Council spokesperson, said there’s no agreement between the U.S. and Israel to halt any ground invasion of Gaza while Biden is in Israel.

    “We are not dictating military terms and operational mandates to the Israeli military,” he told reporters Monday night...

    Of course they are not “dictating”

    They will have made clear the extent of their displeasure if Biden ends up in a war zone due to Israeli actions

  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,196

    Foxy said:

    On topic, a really quite striking shift in the reason for byelections.

    Is it that our MPs are now more badly behaved? Or is it that they are better policed?

    Or is it just that MPs are younger, more likely to resign for other opportunities, and in better health?

    I think voters more sympathetic to a party that loses an MP for health reasons than one to misbehavior.

    I think better policed. The ability to actually deal with MPs bad behaviour in away that leads to recall has only existed since 2015. How many of these MPs would have hung on without that?
    Yes, without recall it's hard to see someone like Bone being evicted.

  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,418
    edited October 2023
    Foxy said:

    On topic, a really quite striking shift in the reason for byelections.

    Is it that our MPs are now more badly behaved? Or is it that they are better policed?

    Or is it just that MPs are younger, more likely to resign for other opportunities, and in better health?

    I think voters more sympathetic to a party that loses an MP for health reasons than one to misbehavior.

    Yes and no, I think. I was a nerdish MP, as few will be surprised to hear, so I didn't use the bars or hear about many shenanigans. But my secretary talked to lots of colleagues and said shenanigans were rife, although in her view they were apparently consensual - often married MPs having sex with willing young staff who saw it as prestigious or career-enhancing or simply fancied the MP. Some MPs would get pissed in the bar during the late evening sessions. But she didn't report anything illegal or anything like the allegations against Bone. Thinking about it in retrospect, it didn't really sound very different from what you might expect from a few thousand people in close quarters away from home up to 12 hours a day.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,458

    Sandpit said:

    Owen Jones appears to be losing it over on Twitter.

    It's all our fault. Again.

    There’s definitely a certain section of media and academia, who continue to believe that the world’s bad people are the US, the UK, and Israel, and that by extension everyone else is therefore good.

    No, me neither.
    Owen Jones is quite incredibly stupid. He is an openly gay man, who believes in gay rights. The people he supports in Gaza are not exactly known for their support of gay rights. Last night he tried to blame us for this situation; the reality, as the West Bank shows, is rather different.

    "Currently, the Hamas government punishes all men who are convicted of having engaged in homosexual acts with up to 10 years in prison." (1)

    Of course, Owen Jones does not live in Gaza.

    The situation in the West Bank is somewhat better, although:
    "In August 2019, the Palestinian Authority announced that LGBT groups were forbidden to meet in the West Bank on the grounds that they are "harmful to the higher values and ideals of Palestinian society". This was in response to a planned conference in Nablus by Al-Qaws, a Palestinian LGBT group. The ban was later withdrawn by the end of the month following backlash." (1)

    (1): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_in_the_State_of_Palestine
    It's actually insulting to people in the Middle East and Africa to assume that they lack any responsibility for their own actions and decisions.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,281

    nico679 said:

    The 9/11 terrorists attacks allowed to happen due to intelligence failures which subsequently lead to a disastrous invasion of Iraq and the subsequent formation of ISIS .

    Israeli intelligence failures allowed terrorist attacks and then because of that a Gaza invasion and possible meltdown in the Middle East .

    Are you saying that we need to be perpetually on guard because otherwise evil men will kill hundreds of innocent civilians?

    And if we are unlucky once (after the kind, peace-loving Anglophile Gerry Adams) then it’s our fault,,,

    You need to check your moral compass, sir!
    He's right though, we do need to be perpetually on guard because otherwise evil men will kill hundreds of innocent civilians. It's sad but that's the reality.

    Your alternative is...?
    My issue is with the implication that it’s our fault
  • Options

    Andy_JS said:

    One of the most interesting articles I've read recently.

    "The happy dysfunction of Dover
    Americans will never create communities like the British
    By Chris Arnade"

    https://unherd.com/2023/10/the-happy-dysfunction-of-dover/

    Interesting that in a walk from Dover to Worthing he only focuses on the troubled and the poor, the grim and the grimy. Whilst we all know many coastal towns are run down that walk is going to take in quite a few affluent areas too: Rye, Eastbourne, Brighton to mention a few.

    Was he hoping for a commission from the NYT?
    It read like something which had been recycled for the last 50+ years.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,458

    Foxy said:

    On topic, a really quite striking shift in the reason for byelections.

    Is it that our MPs are now more badly behaved? Or is it that they are better policed?

    Or is it just that MPs are younger, more likely to resign for other opportunities, and in better health?

    I think voters more sympathetic to a party that loses an MP for health reasons than one to misbehavior.

    Yes and no, I think. I was a nerdish MP, as few will be surprised to hear, so I didn't use the bars or hear about many shenanigans. But my secretary talked to lots of colleagues and said shenanigans were rife, although in her view they were apparently consensual - often married MPs having sex with willing young staff who saw it as prestigious or career-enhancing or simply fancied the MP. Some MPs would get pissed in the bar during the late evening sessions. But she didn't report anything illegal or anything like the allegations against Bone. Thinking about it in retrospect, it didn't really sound very different from what you might expect from a few thousand people in close quarters away from home up to 12 hours a day.
    Peter Bone, Imran Khan, Bottom Pincher, Mike Hancock, Michael Phallus, Brooks Newmark, Jared O'Mara, Fiona Onasanya, Chris Huhne, et al, just where do we find these people from?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,772
    Taz said:

    Owen Jones appears to be losing it over on Twitter.

    It's all our fault. Again.

    I saw his post yesterday blaming the British for the lack of gay rights in Gaza.

    With that, and his unpleasant Sky discussion with Margaret Hodge, he has not had a good conflict so far.
    It’s a variant of the Kevin Bacon game. Instead of always linking to Kevin Bacon, it’s always Western Imperialism. Strangely the chain always stops there, instead of going on.

    The funny thing is that it’s very, very racist. To be truly human is to have moral agency. If you are not a moral agent, then you are less than human.

    This is fundamental. Moral agency includes doing wrong as well as right.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,868
    Sandpit said:

    Good morning everyone!

    I was quite shocked by how old, and indeed feeble, Biden, looked on TV yesterday.

    Irrespective of your views of Joe Biden as a politician, as a human being it really can’t be in his best interests to be still wanting to do this job for more than another five years. He’s clearly in very poor health, which is noticeably deteriorating.

    The Dems really should open up their primary process, and choose someone else.
    Fox etc. have been claiming this since day one. I don’t know. I do know that Biden remains cognitively stronger than Trump. Trump repeatedly talks about Obama being President, he thought the next world war will be World War II, he said Republicans “eat their young”, his speeches become ever more rambling.

    The Republicans would be in a much stronger position if they could replace Trump with anyone vaguely sane and non-criminal. For starters, they might be able to pick a Speaker.
  • Options
    Has Australia given up counting their referendum ?

    Still less than 80% counted.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/referendum/2023/results?filter=all&sort=az&state=all&party=all

    Taking days or weeks to finalise a result does not encourage people to trust them.
  • Options

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning everyone!

    I was quite shocked by how old, and indeed feeble, Biden, looked on TV yesterday.

    Irrespective of your views of Joe Biden as a politician, as a human being it really can’t be in his best interests to be still wanting to do this job for more than another five years. He’s clearly in very poor health, which is noticeably deteriorating.

    The Dems really should open up their primary process, and choose someone else.
    Fox etc. have been claiming this since day one. I don’t know. I do know that Biden remains cognitively stronger than Trump. Trump repeatedly talks about Obama being President, he thought the next world war will be World War II, he said Republicans “eat their young”, his speeches become ever more rambling.

    The Republicans would be in a much stronger position if they could replace Trump with anyone vaguely sane and non-criminal. For starters, they might be able to pick a Speaker.
    Trump and Biden need each other.

    The USA needs neither.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,856

    Foxy said:

    On topic, a really quite striking shift in the reason for byelections.

    Is it that our MPs are now more badly behaved? Or is it that they are better policed?

    Or is it just that MPs are younger, more likely to resign for other opportunities, and in better health?

    I think voters more sympathetic to a party that loses an MP for health reasons than one to misbehavior.

    Yes and no, I think. I was a nerdish MP, as few will be surprised to hear, so I didn't use the bars or hear about many shenanigans. But my secretary talked to lots of colleagues and said shenanigans were rife, although in her view they were apparently consensual - often married MPs having sex with willing young staff who saw it as prestigious or career-enhancing or simply fancied the MP. Some MPs would get pissed in the bar during the late evening sessions. But she didn't report anything illegal or anything like the allegations against Bone. Thinking about it in retrospect, it didn't really sound very different from what you might expect from a few thousand people in close quarters away from home up to 12 hours a day.
    I think the lifestyle of an MP - particularly an out-of-London one - is also partly to blame. It must be very difficult, especially if you have kids, to try to maintain a 'normal' home life and also fulfill the obligations in constituency and London.
  • Options
    On topic, I wonder (and haven’t done the research) if there is a link between what caused the by-election and the chances of the incumbent party retaining the seat? Or, is it all about relative position in the polls at the time (and the long tradition of sticking it to the party of Government)?

    If I could bothered doing the analysis it could help predict outcomes. E.g. replacing a wrong un is likely to be a defeat whereas replacing a dead un you will retain.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,868

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning everyone!

    I was quite shocked by how old, and indeed feeble, Biden, looked on TV yesterday.

    Irrespective of your views of Joe Biden as a politician, as a human being it really can’t be in his best interests to be still wanting to do this job for more than another five years. He’s clearly in very poor health, which is noticeably deteriorating.

    The Dems really should open up their primary process, and choose someone else.
    Fox etc. have been claiming this since day one. I don’t know. I do know that Biden remains cognitively stronger than Trump. Trump repeatedly talks about Obama being President, he thought the next world war will be World War II, he said Republicans “eat their young”, his speeches become ever more rambling.

    The Republicans would be in a much stronger position if they could replace Trump with anyone vaguely sane and non-criminal. For starters, they might be able to pick a Speaker.
    Trump and Biden need each other.

    The USA needs neither.
    I don’t think Trump needs Biden. The MAGA Right are so deep into their own fantasy world that they’ll just make shit up about whoever is the Dem nominee.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,120

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning everyone!

    I was quite shocked by how old, and indeed feeble, Biden, looked on TV yesterday.

    Irrespective of your views of Joe Biden as a politician, as a human being it really can’t be in his best interests to be still wanting to do this job for more than another five years. He’s clearly in very poor health, which is noticeably deteriorating.

    The Dems really should open up their primary process, and choose someone else.
    Fox etc. have been claiming this since day one. I don’t know. I do know that Biden remains cognitively stronger than Trump. Trump repeatedly talks about Obama being President, he thought the next world war will be World War II, he said Republicans “eat their young”, his speeches become ever more rambling.

    The Republicans would be in a much stronger position if they could replace Trump with anyone vaguely sane and non-criminal. For starters, they might be able to pick a Speaker.
    Trump and Biden need each other.

    The USA needs neither.
    That’s a good way of putting it. The country would be better if they both stood aside.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,772

    Foxy said:

    On topic, a really quite striking shift in the reason for byelections.

    Is it that our MPs are now more badly behaved? Or is it that they are better policed?

    Or is it just that MPs are younger, more likely to resign for other opportunities, and in better health?

    I think voters more sympathetic to a party that loses an MP for health reasons than one to misbehavior.

    Yes and no, I think. I was a nerdish MP, as few will be surprised to hear, so I didn't use the bars or hear about many shenanigans. But my secretary talked to lots of colleagues and said shenanigans were rife, although in her view they were apparently consensual - often married MPs having sex with willing young staff who saw it as prestigious or career-enhancing or simply fancied the MP. Some MPs would get pissed in the bar during the late evening sessions. But she didn't report anything illegal or anything like the allegations against Bone. Thinking about it in retrospect, it didn't really sound very different from what you might expect from a few thousand people in close quarters away from home up to 12 hours a day.
    MPs are starting younger, as a career, possibly? Combined with much longer life spans for middle class people (health conscious, know how to access health care effectively)

    In the Goode* Olde Days, MP was what you did after achieving a certain level of eminence and success in your first career.

    *The times of hunger, early child death etc etc
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,196

    Foxy said:

    On topic, a really quite striking shift in the reason for byelections.

    Is it that our MPs are now more badly behaved? Or is it that they are better policed?

    Or is it just that MPs are younger, more likely to resign for other opportunities, and in better health?

    I think voters more sympathetic to a party that loses an MP for health reasons than one to misbehavior.

    Yes and no, I think. I was a nerdish MP, as few will be surprised to hear, so I didn't use the bars or hear about many shenanigans. But my secretary talked to lots of colleagues and said shenanigans were rife, although in her view they were apparently consensual - often married MPs having sex with willing young staff who saw it as prestigious or career-enhancing or simply fancied the MP. Some MPs would get pissed in the bar during the late evening sessions. But she didn't report anything illegal or anything like the allegations against Bone. Thinking about it in retrospect, it didn't really sound very different from what you might expect from a few thousand people in close quarters away from home up to 12 hours a day.
    The culture must have shifted too, with more female MPs and being openly gay no longer an issue.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,418
    Andy_JS said:

    One of the most interesting articles I've read recently.

    "The happy dysfunction of Dover
    Americans will never create communities like the British
    By Chris Arnade"

    https://unherd.com/2023/10/the-happy-dysfunction-of-dover/

    Hmm - essentially "the British working class are happy because they know their place". Interesting, and possibly true for the beachcombers he describes, but on the whole a superficial generalisation.
  • Options

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning everyone!

    I was quite shocked by how old, and indeed feeble, Biden, looked on TV yesterday.

    Irrespective of your views of Joe Biden as a politician, as a human being it really can’t be in his best interests to be still wanting to do this job for more than another five years. He’s clearly in very poor health, which is noticeably deteriorating.

    The Dems really should open up their primary process, and choose someone else.
    Fox etc. have been claiming this since day one. I don’t know. I do know that Biden remains cognitively stronger than Trump. Trump repeatedly talks about Obama being President, he thought the next world war will be World War II, he said Republicans “eat their young”, his speeches become ever more rambling.

    The Republicans would be in a much stronger position if they could replace Trump with anyone vaguely sane and non-criminal. For starters, they might be able to pick a Speaker.
    Trump and Biden need each other.

    The USA needs neither.
    I don’t think Trump needs Biden. The MAGA Right are so deep into their own fantasy world that they’ll just make shit up about whoever is the Dem nominee.
    But take away Biden and Trump's senility is exposed for all to see.

    Likewise take away Hunter Biden and Trump's criminality is more exposed.
  • Options
    Foxy said:

    The true picture of A&E waiting times in Wales has been seriously under-reported for a decade, senior doctors have told the BBC.

    The Royal College of Emergency Medicine (RCEM) claims it has established thousands of hours are missed from monthly figures.

    Senior A&E doctors have been raising the issue for months.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-67056279

    Round of applause to those PBers who have been pointing out the ineptitude of the Welsh government.

    While clearly open to abuse and fiddling the figures the Welsh system makes more sense.

    If a patient breaches the 4 hour target while awaiting results of investigations that is quite different to breaching purely because ED is swamped with patients.

    Not that anyone seems to care about the 4 hour target anymore. The 12 hour one is not looking great either.

    What if they are awiting results of investigations which are delayed because the system is swamped?

    It just looks like a great way to hide reality to me.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,196

    On topic, I wonder (and haven’t done the research) if there is a link between what caused the by-election and the chances of the incumbent party retaining the seat? Or, is it all about relative position in the polls at the time (and the long tradition of sticking it to the party of Government)?

    If I could bothered doing the analysis it could help predict outcomes. E.g. replacing a wrong un is likely to be a defeat whereas replacing a dead un you will retain.

    I think voters quite sympathetic when an MP dies, whether natural causes or murder. Those seats rarely seem to change. Resignation due to scandal is a different kettle of fish.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,567
    Foxy said:

    On topic, I wonder (and haven’t done the research) if there is a link between what caused the by-election and the chances of the incumbent party retaining the seat? Or, is it all about relative position in the polls at the time (and the long tradition of sticking it to the party of Government)?

    If I could bothered doing the analysis it could help predict outcomes. E.g. replacing a wrong un is likely to be a defeat whereas replacing a dead un you will retain.

    I think voters quite sympathetic when an MP dies, whether natural causes or murder. Those seats rarely seem to change. Resignation due to scandal is a different kettle of fish.
    Crewe and Nantwich in 2008 would suggest otherwise:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Crewe_and_Nantwich_by-election
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,196
    edited October 2023

    Foxy said:

    The true picture of A&E waiting times in Wales has been seriously under-reported for a decade, senior doctors have told the BBC.

    The Royal College of Emergency Medicine (RCEM) claims it has established thousands of hours are missed from monthly figures.

    Senior A&E doctors have been raising the issue for months.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-67056279

    Round of applause to those PBers who have been pointing out the ineptitude of the Welsh government.

    While clearly open to abuse and fiddling the figures the Welsh system makes more sense.

    If a patient breaches the 4 hour target while awaiting results of investigations that is quite different to breaching purely because ED is swamped with patients.

    Not that anyone seems to care about the 4 hour target anymore. The 12 hour one is not looking great either.

    What if they are awiting results of investigations which are delayed because the system is swamped?

    It just looks like a great way to hide reality to me.
    Clearly it is open to abuse, but the 4 hour target used to be abused (when people still cared about it!).

    For example a very large number of admissions came with 3:50ish on the clock, with the suspicion that they were only admitted because they were about to breach.

    I don't think I have ever seen an NHS target that wasn't vulnerable to being gamed.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,772

    Andy_JS said:

    One of the most interesting articles I've read recently.

    "The happy dysfunction of Dover
    Americans will never create communities like the British
    By Chris Arnade"

    https://unherd.com/2023/10/the-happy-dysfunction-of-dover/

    Hmm - essentially "the British working class are happy because they know their place". Interesting, and possibly true for the beachcombers he describes, but on the whole a superficial generalisation.

    At the back of one of the houses a young woman was
    kneeling on the stones, poking a stick up the leaden waste-pipe which
    ran from the sink inside and which I suppose was blocked. I had time to
    see everything about her--her sacking apron, her clumsy clogs, her arms
    reddened by the cold. She looked up as the train passed, and I was
    almost near enough to catch her eye. She had a round pale face, the
    usual exhausted face of the slum girl who is twenty-five and looks
    forty, thanks to miscarriages and drudgery; and it wore, for the second
    in which I saw it, the most desolate, hopeless expression I have
    ever seen. It struck me then that we are mistaken when we say that 'It
    isn't the same for them as it would be for us,' and that people bred in
    the slums can imagine nothing but the slums. For what I saw in her face
    was not the ignorant suffering of an animal. She knew well enough what
    was happening to her--understood as well as I did how dreadful a destiny
    it was to be kneeling there in the bitter cold, on the slimy stones of a
    slum backyard, poking a stick up a foul drain-pipe.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,772
    edited October 2023
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    The true picture of A&E waiting times in Wales has been seriously under-reported for a decade, senior doctors have told the BBC.

    The Royal College of Emergency Medicine (RCEM) claims it has established thousands of hours are missed from monthly figures.

    Senior A&E doctors have been raising the issue for months.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-67056279

    Round of applause to those PBers who have been pointing out the ineptitude of the Welsh government.

    While clearly open to abuse and fiddling the figures the Welsh system makes more sense.

    If a patient breaches the 4 hour target while awaiting results of investigations that is quite different to breaching purely because ED is swamped with patients.

    Not that anyone seems to care about the 4 hour target anymore. The 12 hour one is not looking great either.

    What if they are awiting results of investigations which are delayed because the system is swamped?

    It just looks like a great way to hide reality to me.
    Clearly it is open to abuse, but the 4 hour target used to be abused (when people still cared about it!).

    For example a very large number of admissions came with 3:50ish on the clock, with the suspicion that they were only admitted because they were about to breach.

    I don't think I have ever seen an NHS target that wasn't vulnerable to being gamed.
    I don't think I have ever seen an NHS target that wasn't vulnerable to being gamed.

    It's what you do with the data.

    My first thought here, is why is it taking more than 4 hours to complete investigations - what are the bottlenecks? This isn't about blame. All system can be improved - in fact continuous improvement can be part of a very good managerial system
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,196

    Andy_JS said:

    One of the most interesting articles I've read recently.

    "The happy dysfunction of Dover
    Americans will never create communities like the British
    By Chris Arnade"

    https://unherd.com/2023/10/the-happy-dysfunction-of-dover/

    Hmm - essentially "the British working class are happy because they know their place". Interesting, and possibly true for the beachcombers he describes, but on the whole a superficial generalisation.
    I think there is too a difference with American myths of social mobility. In America being poor is often viewed as personal failure rather than being due to circumstances, while in Europe it is often the opposite.

    This leads to a certain class solidarity that can be apolitical or very political.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,806

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning everyone!

    I was quite shocked by how old, and indeed feeble, Biden, looked on TV yesterday.

    Irrespective of your views of Joe Biden as a politician, as a human being it really can’t be in his best interests to be still wanting to do this job for more than another five years. He’s clearly in very poor health, which is noticeably deteriorating.

    The Dems really should open up their primary process, and choose someone else.
    Could still happen - as I have pointed out several times on here, if Biden has decided not to run he's not going to say so until February at the earliest. I'd punt at 40% to 60% he won't stand.
    I wonder if the Israel situation could be Biden’s “out”. LBJ was expected to run in the 1968 election but he was suffering ill health and his polling wasn’t great - better than his then challenger but not smashing it.

    He announced he wasn’t running and if I remember correctly it was put out that he thought it was more important for him to concentrate on dealing with the Vietnam situation than being distracted and away campaigning.

    Didn’t help the Dems as Nixon got in but maybe Biden will see a situation where he spends the next year delivering some sort of Middle Eastern peace as his legacy.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,275
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, a really quite striking shift in the reason for byelections.

    Is it that our MPs are now more badly behaved? Or is it that they are better policed?

    Or is it just that MPs are younger, more likely to resign for other opportunities, and in better health?

    I think voters more sympathetic to a party that loses an MP for health reasons than one to misbehavior.

    Yes and no, I think. I was a nerdish MP, as few will be surprised to hear, so I didn't use the bars or hear about many shenanigans. But my secretary talked to lots of colleagues and said shenanigans were rife, although in her view they were apparently consensual - often married MPs having sex with willing young staff who saw it as prestigious or career-enhancing or simply fancied the MP. Some MPs would get pissed in the bar during the late evening sessions. But she didn't report anything illegal or anything like the allegations against Bone. Thinking about it in retrospect, it didn't really sound very different from what you might expect from a few thousand people in close quarters away from home up to 12 hours a day.
    The culture must have shifted too, with more female MPs and being openly gay no longer an issue.
    More opportunities for the remaining predators amongst the MPs - but with the attempted prey less deferential and answering back more often?
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,063
    Sean_F said:

    Sandpit said:

    Owen Jones appears to be losing it over on Twitter.

    It's all our fault. Again.

    There’s definitely a certain section of media and academia, who continue to believe that the world’s bad people are the US, the UK, and Israel, and that by extension everyone else is therefore good.

    No, me neither.
    Owen Jones is quite incredibly stupid. He is an openly gay man, who believes in gay rights. The people he supports in Gaza are not exactly known for their support of gay rights. Last night he tried to blame us for this situation; the reality, as the West Bank shows, is rather different.

    "Currently, the Hamas government punishes all men who are convicted of having engaged in homosexual acts with up to 10 years in prison." (1)

    Of course, Owen Jones does not live in Gaza.

    The situation in the West Bank is somewhat better, although:
    "In August 2019, the Palestinian Authority announced that LGBT groups were forbidden to meet in the West Bank on the grounds that they are "harmful to the higher values and ideals of Palestinian society". This was in response to a planned conference in Nablus by Al-Qaws, a Palestinian LGBT group. The ban was later withdrawn by the end of the month following backlash." (1)

    (1): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_in_the_State_of_Palestine
    It's actually insulting to people in the Middle East and Africa to assume that they lack any responsibility for their own actions and decisions.
    True. Many of them have a very good record at claiming which massacre / outrage they perpetrated
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,196

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    The true picture of A&E waiting times in Wales has been seriously under-reported for a decade, senior doctors have told the BBC.

    The Royal College of Emergency Medicine (RCEM) claims it has established thousands of hours are missed from monthly figures.

    Senior A&E doctors have been raising the issue for months.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-67056279

    Round of applause to those PBers who have been pointing out the ineptitude of the Welsh government.

    While clearly open to abuse and fiddling the figures the Welsh system makes more sense.

    If a patient breaches the 4 hour target while awaiting results of investigations that is quite different to breaching purely because ED is swamped with patients.

    Not that anyone seems to care about the 4 hour target anymore. The 12 hour one is not looking great either.

    What if they are awiting results of investigations which are delayed because the system is swamped?

    It just looks like a great way to hide reality to me.
    Clearly it is open to abuse, but the 4 hour target used to be abused (when people still cared about it!).

    For example a very large number of admissions came with 3:50ish on the clock, with the suspicion that they were only admitted because they were about to breach.

    I don't think I have ever seen an NHS target that wasn't vulnerable to being gamed.
    I don't think I have ever seen an NHS target that wasn't vulnerable to being gamed.
    I don't think thar true, at least not in my Trust. Our SMT want honest figures so they know where the problems are.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,772
    edited October 2023
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, a really quite striking shift in the reason for byelections.

    Is it that our MPs are now more badly behaved? Or is it that they are better policed?

    Or is it just that MPs are younger, more likely to resign for other opportunities, and in better health?

    I think voters more sympathetic to a party that loses an MP for health reasons than one to misbehavior.

    Yes and no, I think. I was a nerdish MP, as few will be surprised to hear, so I didn't use the bars or hear about many shenanigans. But my secretary talked to lots of colleagues and said shenanigans were rife, although in her view they were apparently consensual - often married MPs having sex with willing young staff who saw it as prestigious or career-enhancing or simply fancied the MP. Some MPs would get pissed in the bar during the late evening sessions. But she didn't report anything illegal or anything like the allegations against Bone. Thinking about it in retrospect, it didn't really sound very different from what you might expect from a few thousand people in close quarters away from home up to 12 hours a day.
    The culture must have shifted too, with more female MPs and being openly gay no longer an issue.
    More opportunities for the remaining predators amongst the MPs - but with the attempted prey less deferential and answering back more often?
    I wouldn't be surprised if not much has really changed - except for the outcomes of such behaviour, due to ability to push back. Humans being human and all that.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,275

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, a really quite striking shift in the reason for byelections.

    Is it that our MPs are now more badly behaved? Or is it that they are better policed?

    Or is it just that MPs are younger, more likely to resign for other opportunities, and in better health?

    I think voters more sympathetic to a party that loses an MP for health reasons than one to misbehavior.

    Yes and no, I think. I was a nerdish MP, as few will be surprised to hear, so I didn't use the bars or hear about many shenanigans. But my secretary talked to lots of colleagues and said shenanigans were rife, although in her view they were apparently consensual - often married MPs having sex with willing young staff who saw it as prestigious or career-enhancing or simply fancied the MP. Some MPs would get pissed in the bar during the late evening sessions. But she didn't report anything illegal or anything like the allegations against Bone. Thinking about it in retrospect, it didn't really sound very different from what you might expect from a few thousand people in close quarters away from home up to 12 hours a day.
    The culture must have shifted too, with more female MPs and being openly gay no longer an issue.
    More opportunities for the remaining predators amongst the MPs - but with the attempted prey less deferential and answering back more often?
    I wouldn't be surprised if not much has really changed - expect for the outcomes of such behaviour, due to ability to push back. Humans being human and all that.
    On the openly gay point - and I'm not thinking of anyone in particular, because this is something that is a few years old now at least - it would once have been cutting one's own throat to admit publicly that one was gay, if making a public complaint about harassment by another person. So there's that as well.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,868

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning everyone!

    I was quite shocked by how old, and indeed feeble, Biden, looked on TV yesterday.

    Irrespective of your views of Joe Biden as a politician, as a human being it really can’t be in his best interests to be still wanting to do this job for more than another five years. He’s clearly in very poor health, which is noticeably deteriorating.

    The Dems really should open up their primary process, and choose someone else.
    Fox etc. have been claiming this since day one. I don’t know. I do know that Biden remains cognitively stronger than Trump. Trump repeatedly talks about Obama being President, he thought the next world war will be World War II, he said Republicans “eat their young”, his speeches become ever more rambling.

    The Republicans would be in a much stronger position if they could replace Trump with anyone vaguely sane and non-criminal. For starters, they might be able to pick a Speaker.
    Trump and Biden need each other.

    The USA needs neither.
    I don’t think Trump needs Biden. The MAGA Right are so deep into their own fantasy world that they’ll just make shit up about whoever is the Dem nominee.
    But take away Biden and Trump's senility is exposed for all to see.

    Likewise take away Hunter Biden and Trump's criminality is more exposed.
    Maybe, but unless the Dems nominate the risen Jesus Christ, the MAGA Right will just find something about any Dem nominee and then make stuff up. Truth is simply irrelevant to a section of Republican voters fed non-stop misinformation.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,779

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning everyone!

    I was quite shocked by how old, and indeed feeble, Biden, looked on TV yesterday.

    Irrespective of your views of Joe Biden as a politician, as a human being it really can’t be in his best interests to be still wanting to do this job for more than another five years. He’s clearly in very poor health, which is noticeably deteriorating.

    The Dems really should open up their primary process, and choose someone else.
    Fox etc. have been claiming this since day one. I don’t know. I do know that Biden remains cognitively stronger than Trump. Trump repeatedly talks about Obama being President, he thought the next world war will be World War II, he said Republicans “eat their young”, his speeches become ever more rambling.

    The Republicans would be in a much stronger position if they could replace Trump with anyone vaguely sane and non-criminal. For starters, they might be able to pick a Speaker.
    Trump and Biden need each other.

    The USA needs neither.
    That's just lazy both-sidesism.

    Biden has been, on balance, a very good president, IMO. And is quite possibly the only contender who would have beaten Trump last time around.
    Trump is a cancer on the body politic, and will be a threat whether or not Biden runs.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 12,115

    Why So Few People Live In This HUGE Area In The Middle Of Spain

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPsa2eoZFH0

    Explains Spain's wheel like population distribution.

    Anyone who thinks Spain's transport infrastructure would be as appropriate in the UK should watch this.

    Nice.
    That man sounds like a computer generated voice.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,779

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning everyone!

    I was quite shocked by how old, and indeed feeble, Biden, looked on TV yesterday.

    Irrespective of your views of Joe Biden as a politician, as a human being it really can’t be in his best interests to be still wanting to do this job for more than another five years. He’s clearly in very poor health, which is noticeably deteriorating.

    The Dems really should open up their primary process, and choose someone else.
    Fox etc. have been claiming this since day one. I don’t know. I do know that Biden remains cognitively stronger than Trump. Trump repeatedly talks about Obama being President, he thought the next world war will be World War II, he said Republicans “eat their young”, his speeches become ever more rambling.

    The Republicans would be in a much stronger position if they could replace Trump with anyone vaguely sane and non-criminal. For starters, they might be able to pick a Speaker.
    Trump and Biden need each other.

    The USA needs neither.
    I don’t think Trump needs Biden. The MAGA Right are so deep into their own fantasy world that they’ll just make shit up about whoever is the Dem nominee.
    But take away Biden and Trump's senility is exposed for all to see.

    Likewise take away Hunter Biden and Trump's criminality is more exposed.
    Hunter Biden is an irrelevance.
  • Options
    pm215pm215 Posts: 1,003

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning everyone!

    I was quite shocked by how old, and indeed feeble, Biden, looked on TV yesterday.

    Irrespective of your views of Joe Biden as a politician, as a human being it really can’t be in his best interests to be still wanting to do this job for more than another five years. He’s clearly in very poor health, which is noticeably deteriorating.

    The Dems really should open up their primary process, and choose someone else.
    Fox etc. have been claiming this since day one. I don’t know. I do know that Biden remains cognitively stronger than Trump. Trump repeatedly talks about Obama being President, he thought the next world war will be World War II, he said Republicans “eat their young”, his speeches become ever more rambling.

    The Republicans would be in a much stronger position if they could replace Trump with anyone vaguely sane and non-criminal. For starters, they might be able to pick a Speaker.
    Trump and Biden need each other.

    The USA needs neither.
    I don’t think Trump needs Biden. The MAGA Right are so deep into their own fantasy world that they’ll just make shit up about whoever is the Dem nominee.
    But take away Biden and Trump's senility is exposed for all to see.

    Likewise take away Hunter Biden and Trump's criminality is more exposed.
    Maybe, but unless the Dems nominate the risen Jesus Christ, the MAGA Right will just find something about any Dem nominee and then make stuff up. Truth is simply irrelevant to a section of Republican voters fed non-stop misinformation.
    I imagine they'd point out that Christ had a criminal conviction, for that matter...
  • Options
    On topic, it's a bit of a stretch to say death as a cause of by-elections "hardly ever happens".

    Whilst the screenshot cuts them off, there have been four by-elections caused by death in this Parliament. There were one and three in the brief 2017-19 and 2015-17 Parliaments, and six in 2010-15.

    It's certainly true that deaths among MPs have reduced significantly since 1997 - in 1987-92 there were 19 and in 1992-97 there were 17. Partly, this is parties easing older and unwell MPs into retirement. But it's also notable that there has been a general decline in mortality from heart attacks in the past 25 years (still a big killer, of course, but there's a much better chance of someone in their 60s surviving a heart attack than in the past).
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,275
    pm215 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning everyone!

    I was quite shocked by how old, and indeed feeble, Biden, looked on TV yesterday.

    Irrespective of your views of Joe Biden as a politician, as a human being it really can’t be in his best interests to be still wanting to do this job for more than another five years. He’s clearly in very poor health, which is noticeably deteriorating.

    The Dems really should open up their primary process, and choose someone else.
    Fox etc. have been claiming this since day one. I don’t know. I do know that Biden remains cognitively stronger than Trump. Trump repeatedly talks about Obama being President, he thought the next world war will be World War II, he said Republicans “eat their young”, his speeches become ever more rambling.

    The Republicans would be in a much stronger position if they could replace Trump with anyone vaguely sane and non-criminal. For starters, they might be able to pick a Speaker.
    Trump and Biden need each other.

    The USA needs neither.
    I don’t think Trump needs Biden. The MAGA Right are so deep into their own fantasy world that they’ll just make shit up about whoever is the Dem nominee.
    But take away Biden and Trump's senility is exposed for all to see.

    Likewise take away Hunter Biden and Trump's criminality is more exposed.
    Maybe, but unless the Dems nominate the risen Jesus Christ, the MAGA Right will just find something about any Dem nominee and then make stuff up. Truth is simply irrelevant to a section of Republican voters fed non-stop misinformation.
    I imagine they'd point out that Christ had a criminal conviction, for that matter...
    Wasn't one of us telling the tale of a US pastor having a hard time from some of his congregation for preaching the teachings of JC in that well known parlour pinko woke compilation the New Testament?
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,180
    I kind of see why the Guardian kept Steve Bell for so long. This is today's effort from their cartoonist "Billy B". It's risible, but not in an actually-laughing sense.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2023/oct/16/billy-b-on-rishi-sunaks-first-day-back-cartoon
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,275
    pm215 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning everyone!

    I was quite shocked by how old, and indeed feeble, Biden, looked on TV yesterday.

    Irrespective of your views of Joe Biden as a politician, as a human being it really can’t be in his best interests to be still wanting to do this job for more than another five years. He’s clearly in very poor health, which is noticeably deteriorating.

    The Dems really should open up their primary process, and choose someone else.
    Fox etc. have been claiming this since day one. I don’t know. I do know that Biden remains cognitively stronger than Trump. Trump repeatedly talks about Obama being President, he thought the next world war will be World War II, he said Republicans “eat their young”, his speeches become ever more rambling.

    The Republicans would be in a much stronger position if they could replace Trump with anyone vaguely sane and non-criminal. For starters, they might be able to pick a Speaker.
    Trump and Biden need each other.

    The USA needs neither.
    I don’t think Trump needs Biden. The MAGA Right are so deep into their own fantasy world that they’ll just make shit up about whoever is the Dem nominee.
    But take away Biden and Trump's senility is exposed for all to see.

    Likewise take away Hunter Biden and Trump's criminality is more exposed.
    Maybe, but unless the Dems nominate the risen Jesus Christ, the MAGA Right will just find something about any Dem nominee and then make stuff up. Truth is simply irrelevant to a section of Republican voters fed non-stop misinformation.
    I imagine they'd point out that Christ had a criminal conviction, for that matter...
    A legally dodgy ones, too, pretty much a lynching.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,275
    pm215 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning everyone!

    I was quite shocked by how old, and indeed feeble, Biden, looked on TV yesterday.

    Irrespective of your views of Joe Biden as a politician, as a human being it really can’t be in his best interests to be still wanting to do this job for more than another five years. He’s clearly in very poor health, which is noticeably deteriorating.

    The Dems really should open up their primary process, and choose someone else.
    Fox etc. have been claiming this since day one. I don’t know. I do know that Biden remains cognitively stronger than Trump. Trump repeatedly talks about Obama being President, he thought the next world war will be World War II, he said Republicans “eat their young”, his speeches become ever more rambling.

    The Republicans would be in a much stronger position if they could replace Trump with anyone vaguely sane and non-criminal. For starters, they might be able to pick a Speaker.
    Trump and Biden need each other.

    The USA needs neither.
    I don’t think Trump needs Biden. The MAGA Right are so deep into their own fantasy world that they’ll just make shit up about whoever is the Dem nominee.
    But take away Biden and Trump's senility is exposed for all to see.

    Likewise take away Hunter Biden and Trump's criminality is more exposed.
    Maybe, but unless the Dems nominate the risen Jesus Christ, the MAGA Right will just find something about any Dem nominee and then make stuff up. Truth is simply irrelevant to a section of Republican voters fed non-stop misinformation.
    I imagine they'd point out that Christ had a criminal conviction, for that matter...
    And hung around with prostitutes, but worst of all Federal tax collectors ...
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 4,004
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning everyone!

    I was quite shocked by how old, and indeed feeble, Biden, looked on TV yesterday.

    Irrespective of your views of Joe Biden as a politician, as a human being it really can’t be in his best interests to be still wanting to do this job for more than another five years. He’s clearly in very poor health, which is noticeably deteriorating.

    The Dems really should open up their primary process, and choose someone else.
    Fox etc. have been claiming this since day one. I don’t know. I do know that Biden remains cognitively stronger than Trump. Trump repeatedly talks about Obama being President, he thought the next world war will be World War II, he said Republicans “eat their young”, his speeches become ever more rambling.

    The Republicans would be in a much stronger position if they could replace Trump with anyone vaguely sane and non-criminal. For starters, they might be able to pick a Speaker.
    Trump and Biden need each other.

    The USA needs neither.
    That's just lazy both-sidesism.

    Biden has been, on balance, a very good president, IMO. And is quite possibly the only contender who would have beaten Trump last time around.
    Trump is a cancer on the body politic, and will be a threat whether or not Biden runs.
    TBF I feel that Biden did need Trump - to make the Democratic base scared enough of losing to go with someone who seemed like the "safe" option instead of the "risk" of Sanders (despite the fact that I think Sanders originally polled better against Trump than Biden, and probably still does). I think a less concerning GOP candidate may have meant a few more contenders stayed in the race that bit longer, that maybe Biden doesn't get as much as a bounce from his South Carolina win as he did, and so on and so on.

    Biden has been a better Democratic President then expected, I will accept that. His reduction in drone strikes, his general support for labour unions (not including railway workers), his ability to pass decent infrastructure spending - these are all good. The Democratic party still don't seem to have plans for dealing with the political environment they live in, though. Look at Dobbs, the Democrats had fair warning this decision was coming - they could have had executive orders ready to go on the day it dropped to make all federal land in each state a safe haven for abortions, with a promise to increase the number of medical professionals available at military bases and such to deal with the health crisis making abortion illegal in certain states would create. The GOP were ready; many states had laws on the books that were written to go into effect should Roe even be struck - the Dems really need to start doing that kind of political planning.

    I also don't think the Democratic party is really prepared for a truly radical right wing SCOTUS that has no desire to keep the image of impartiality. Like on standing alone, this court has radically departed from norms in such a way to massively favour the right wing project - let alone the actual decisions, some of which have been truly insane. Dems needed better attacks on SCOTUS, should really make a full throated attack on it central to their platform. They may want SCOTUS to be above the partisan fray but a) it isn't and b) the GOP have been weaponising the courts essentially since Nixon.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,458
    Carnyx said:

    pm215 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning everyone!

    I was quite shocked by how old, and indeed feeble, Biden, looked on TV yesterday.

    Irrespective of your views of Joe Biden as a politician, as a human being it really can’t be in his best interests to be still wanting to do this job for more than another five years. He’s clearly in very poor health, which is noticeably deteriorating.

    The Dems really should open up their primary process, and choose someone else.
    Fox etc. have been claiming this since day one. I don’t know. I do know that Biden remains cognitively stronger than Trump. Trump repeatedly talks about Obama being President, he thought the next world war will be World War II, he said Republicans “eat their young”, his speeches become ever more rambling.

    The Republicans would be in a much stronger position if they could replace Trump with anyone vaguely sane and non-criminal. For starters, they might be able to pick a Speaker.
    Trump and Biden need each other.

    The USA needs neither.
    I don’t think Trump needs Biden. The MAGA Right are so deep into their own fantasy world that they’ll just make shit up about whoever is the Dem nominee.
    But take away Biden and Trump's senility is exposed for all to see.

    Likewise take away Hunter Biden and Trump's criminality is more exposed.
    Maybe, but unless the Dems nominate the risen Jesus Christ, the MAGA Right will just find something about any Dem nominee and then make stuff up. Truth is simply irrelevant to a section of Republican voters fed non-stop misinformation.
    I imagine they'd point out that Christ had a criminal conviction, for that matter...
    And hung around with prostitutes, but worst of all Federal tax collectors ...
    Hanging around with prostitutes who offered golden showers wouldn’t be a problem for the MAGA’s.
  • Options
    See cash is bad.

    Young people saving cash in envelopes at home as part of a social media trend are being targeted by burglars.

    Admiral Insurance warned that it had seen a rise in claims involving cash, including where significant amounts of cash kept in envelopes have been stolen during break-ins.

    “Cash stuffing”, a trend born on social media apps such as TikTok, sees savers meticulously file away cash in brightly coloured envelopes at home, rather than rely on current accounts.

    In one video posted by TikTok user BudgetsWithBeth, the self-described cash-stuffer organises her savings in various wallets with labels such as “monthly money”, “petrol”, “window cleaning” and “back to bank”.

    In the video Beth says; “It’s the start of October which means it’s time to go back to my folders and replenish them for the month.

    “I often get comments asking me, ‘What is wrong with a bank’, why do I not keep this money in there? For me, having the physical cash in front of me means that I know what my budget is and I do not overspend.

    “Since starting cash-stuffing I have saved more money than I ever did using my bank account, so for me, this works really well.”

    Beth divides her money between essential spending such as petrol and food before setting aside money for weekend and social spending. A separate folder contains dividers for “giving to charity” and “holiday fund”.

    Any surplus money from previous months, she adds, is put into a savings account. Dozens of similar videos are posted to the app under the hashtag #cashstuffing, racking up tens of thousands of likes per video.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/thieves-gen-zs-tiktok-savings-trend-viral-cash-stuffing/
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,458
    edited October 2023
    Carnyx said:

    pm215 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning everyone!

    I was quite shocked by how old, and indeed feeble, Biden, looked on TV yesterday.

    Irrespective of your views of Joe Biden as a politician, as a human being it really can’t be in his best interests to be still wanting to do this job for more than another five years. He’s clearly in very poor health, which is noticeably deteriorating.

    The Dems really should open up their primary process, and choose someone else.
    Fox etc. have been claiming this since day one. I don’t know. I do know that Biden remains cognitively stronger than Trump. Trump repeatedly talks about Obama being President, he thought the next world war will be World War II, he said Republicans “eat their young”, his speeches become ever more rambling.

    The Republicans would be in a much stronger position if they could replace Trump with anyone vaguely sane and non-criminal. For starters, they might be able to pick a Speaker.
    Trump and Biden need each other.

    The USA needs neither.
    I don’t think Trump needs Biden. The MAGA Right are so deep into their own fantasy world that they’ll just make shit up about whoever is the Dem nominee.
    But take away Biden and Trump's senility is exposed for all to see.

    Likewise take away Hunter Biden and Trump's criminality is more exposed.
    Maybe, but unless the Dems nominate the risen Jesus Christ, the MAGA Right will just find something about any Dem nominee and then make stuff up. Truth is simply irrelevant to a section of Republican voters fed non-stop misinformation.
    I imagine they'd point out that Christ had a criminal conviction, for that matter...
    Wasn't one of us telling the tale of a US pastor having a hard time from some of his congregation for preaching the teachings of JC in that well known parlour pinko woke compilation the New Testament?
    “I was hungry, and you gave me food to eat. I was thirsty, and you gave me water to drink.

    And you were wrong to do so, for that made me lazy and entitled.”
  • Options

    Andy_JS said:

    One of the most interesting articles I've read recently.

    "The happy dysfunction of Dover
    Americans will never create communities like the British
    By Chris Arnade"

    https://unherd.com/2023/10/the-happy-dysfunction-of-dover/

    Hmm - essentially "the British working class are happy because they know their place". Interesting, and possibly true for the beachcombers he describes, but on the whole a superficial generalisation.

    At the back of one of the houses a young woman was
    kneeling on the stones, poking a stick up the leaden waste-pipe which
    ran from the sink inside and which I suppose was blocked. I had time to
    see everything about her--her sacking apron, her clumsy clogs, her arms
    reddened by the cold. She looked up as the train passed, and I was
    almost near enough to catch her eye. She had a round pale face, the
    usual exhausted face of the slum girl who is twenty-five and looks
    forty, thanks to miscarriages and drudgery; and it wore, for the second
    in which I saw it, the most desolate, hopeless expression I have
    ever seen. It struck me then that we are mistaken when we say that 'It
    isn't the same for them as it would be for us,' and that people bred in
    the slums can imagine nothing but the slums. For what I saw in her face
    was not the ignorant suffering of an animal. She knew well enough what
    was happening to her--understood as well as I did how dreadful a destiny
    it was to be kneeling there in the bitter cold, on the slimy stones of a
    slum backyard, poking a stick up a foul drain-pipe.
    Road to Wigan Pier. One of my all time favourite books.
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning everyone!

    I was quite shocked by how old, and indeed feeble, Biden, looked on TV yesterday.

    Irrespective of your views of Joe Biden as a politician, as a human being it really can’t be in his best interests to be still wanting to do this job for more than another five years. He’s clearly in very poor health, which is noticeably deteriorating.

    The Dems really should open up their primary process, and choose someone else.
    Fox etc. have been claiming this since day one. I don’t know. I do know that Biden remains cognitively stronger than Trump. Trump repeatedly talks about Obama being President, he thought the next world war will be World War II, he said Republicans “eat their young”, his speeches become ever more rambling.

    The Republicans would be in a much stronger position if they could replace Trump with anyone vaguely sane and non-criminal. For starters, they might be able to pick a Speaker.
    Trump and Biden need each other.

    The USA needs neither.
    I don’t think Trump needs Biden. The MAGA Right are so deep into their own fantasy world that they’ll just make shit up about whoever is the Dem nominee.
    But take away Biden and Trump's senility is exposed for all to see.

    Likewise take away Hunter Biden and Trump's criminality is more exposed.
    Hunter Biden is an irrelevance.
    You're in denial of the imagery of the President's son being a serial felon.
  • Options
    Richard Madeley asks British Palestinian MP Layla Moran if she or her family knew about Hamas's attack before it happened

    https://twitter.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1714160604389277889
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning everyone!

    I was quite shocked by how old, and indeed feeble, Biden, looked on TV yesterday.

    Irrespective of your views of Joe Biden as a politician, as a human being it really can’t be in his best interests to be still wanting to do this job for more than another five years. He’s clearly in very poor health, which is noticeably deteriorating.

    The Dems really should open up their primary process, and choose someone else.
    Fox etc. have been claiming this since day one. I don’t know. I do know that Biden remains cognitively stronger than Trump. Trump repeatedly talks about Obama being President, he thought the next world war will be World War II, he said Republicans “eat their young”, his speeches become ever more rambling.

    The Republicans would be in a much stronger position if they could replace Trump with anyone vaguely sane and non-criminal. For starters, they might be able to pick a Speaker.
    Trump and Biden need each other.

    The USA needs neither.
    That's just lazy both-sidesism.

    Biden has been, on balance, a very good president, IMO. And is quite possibly the only contender who would have beaten Trump last time around.
    Trump is a cancer on the body politic, and will be a threat whether or not Biden runs.
    Biden as Dem candidate gives Trump his best chance of winning.

    Trump as GOP candidate gives Biden his best chance of winning.

    That is why they need each other.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,446

    Andy_JS said:

    One of the most interesting articles I've read recently.

    "The happy dysfunction of Dover
    Americans will never create communities like the British
    By Chris Arnade"

    https://unherd.com/2023/10/the-happy-dysfunction-of-dover/

    Hmm - essentially "the British working class are happy because they know their place". Interesting, and possibly true for the beachcombers he describes, but on the whole a superficial generalisation.
    He's obviously gone out of his way to find the grimmest, grimiest places and so the article has a bit of a whiff of poverty porn about it. However, I think he is onto something, especially with regard to the contrasting attitudes towards wealth and class in the US and UK (having lived in both countries I can see the point he is making). There is a kind of making the best of things, taking the piss, stoical, cheery spirit that can still pervade the most materially deficient places and communities here - although I think that is probably waning.
    He is right that the US working classes are generally much angrier. I suspect in the US part of the story is that the white working class used to be able to look down on African Americans and this meant they didn't feel they were quite at the bottom of the heap, and now this has changed and they feel their lowly status more keenly. That's not really a factor here.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,329

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning everyone!

    I was quite shocked by how old, and indeed feeble, Biden, looked on TV yesterday.

    Irrespective of your views of Joe Biden as a politician, as a human being it really can’t be in his best interests to be still wanting to do this job for more than another five years. He’s clearly in very poor health, which is noticeably deteriorating.

    The Dems really should open up their primary process, and choose someone else.
    Fox etc. have been claiming this since day one. I don’t know. I do know that Biden remains cognitively stronger than Trump. Trump repeatedly talks about Obama being President, he thought the next world war will be World War II, he said Republicans “eat their young”, his speeches become ever more rambling.

    The Republicans would be in a much stronger position if they could replace Trump with anyone vaguely sane and non-criminal. For starters, they might be able to pick a Speaker.
    Trump and Biden need each other.

    The USA needs neither.
    I don’t think Trump needs Biden. The MAGA Right are so deep into their own fantasy world that they’ll just make shit up about whoever is the Dem nominee.
    But take away Biden and Trump's senility is exposed for all to see.

    Likewise take away Hunter Biden and Trump's criminality is more exposed.
    Hunter Biden is an irrelevance.
    You're in denial of the imagery of the President's son being a serial felon.
    Biden has also used his considerable influence for Hunter so it's not like it's a completely separate matter. I mean, it's completely normal for 43 year olds with no military experience to be commissioned in the USN...
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,446

    Richard Madeley asks British Palestinian MP Layla Moran if she or her family knew about Hamas's attack before it happened

    https://twitter.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1714160604389277889

    This is in "the Jews knew not to go to work on 9/11" territory. Is he auditioning for GB News?
  • Options

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning everyone!

    I was quite shocked by how old, and indeed feeble, Biden, looked on TV yesterday.

    Irrespective of your views of Joe Biden as a politician, as a human being it really can’t be in his best interests to be still wanting to do this job for more than another five years. He’s clearly in very poor health, which is noticeably deteriorating.

    The Dems really should open up their primary process, and choose someone else.
    Fox etc. have been claiming this since day one. I don’t know. I do know that Biden remains cognitively stronger than Trump. Trump repeatedly talks about Obama being President, he thought the next world war will be World War II, he said Republicans “eat their young”, his speeches become ever more rambling.

    The Republicans would be in a much stronger position if they could replace Trump with anyone vaguely sane and non-criminal. For starters, they might be able to pick a Speaker.
    Trump and Biden need each other.

    The USA needs neither.
    I don’t think Trump needs Biden. The MAGA Right are so deep into their own fantasy world that they’ll just make shit up about whoever is the Dem nominee.
    But take away Biden and Trump's senility is exposed for all to see.

    Likewise take away Hunter Biden and Trump's criminality is more exposed.
    Maybe, but unless the Dems nominate the risen Jesus Christ, the MAGA Right will just find something about any Dem nominee and then make stuff up. Truth is simply irrelevant to a section of Republican voters fed non-stop misinformation.
    The MAGA crowd might be big enough to get Trump the nomination but they're not big enough to win Trump the Presidency.

    For that Trump needs lots of independents and centrists as well.
  • Options
    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,751
    edited October 2023

    Foxy said:

    On topic, a really quite striking shift in the reason for byelections.

    Is it that our MPs are now more badly behaved? Or is it that they are better policed?

    Or is it just that MPs are younger, more likely to resign for other opportunities, and in better health?

    I think voters more sympathetic to a party that loses an MP for health reasons than one to misbehavior.

    ...although in her view they were apparently consensual - often married MPs having sex with willing young staff who saw it as prestigious or career-enhancing...
    Not a criticism of you, Nick, as clearly this is just a report of what you heard about. But isn't the enormous danger that, if a staff member is having sex with the boss due to it being "career-enhancing", the corollary of that is that not having sex with the boss is career-limiting?

    There is clearly a difference between someone physically forcing themselves on someone else on the one hand, and these sorts of power imbalances on the other. But it just shouldn't be going on in a professional environment.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,909

    Richard Madeley asks British Palestinian MP Layla Moran if she or her family knew about Hamas's attack before it happened

    https://twitter.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1714160604389277889

    Found a longer clip with Moran's response. She does quite well - it would have been understandable for her just to go "WTAF?!" which is in her facial expression when first asked.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,987
    There is a succession problem in the Democrats and that is one of the issues, IMHO, why Biden is keen to stick it out.

    Problem No.1 is Kamala Harris. If Biden bows out, then there will be pressure to elevate his VP. Kamala is not well regarded, to put it mildly.

  • Options
    Foxy said:

    On topic, a really quite striking shift in the reason for byelections.

    Is it that our MPs are now more badly behaved? Or is it that they are better policed?

    Or is it just that MPs are younger, more likely to resign for other opportunities, and in better health?

    I think voters more sympathetic to a party that loses an MP for health reasons than one to misbehavior.

    I think Nick Palmer has made the point here before that, prior to reforms brought in by the Major government, the pension scheme for MPs was very poor. Which meant MPs would literally work until they dropped. There was(is?) even a welfare fund for ex-MPs in financial distress.
  • Options
    pm215 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning everyone!

    I was quite shocked by how old, and indeed feeble, Biden, looked on TV yesterday.

    Irrespective of your views of Joe Biden as a politician, as a human being it really can’t be in his best interests to be still wanting to do this job for more than another five years. He’s clearly in very poor health, which is noticeably deteriorating.

    The Dems really should open up their primary process, and choose someone else.
    Fox etc. have been claiming this since day one. I don’t know. I do know that Biden remains cognitively stronger than Trump. Trump repeatedly talks about Obama being President, he thought the next world war will be World War II, he said Republicans “eat their young”, his speeches become ever more rambling.

    The Republicans would be in a much stronger position if they could replace Trump with anyone vaguely sane and non-criminal. For starters, they might be able to pick a Speaker.
    Trump and Biden need each other.

    The USA needs neither.
    I don’t think Trump needs Biden. The MAGA Right are so deep into their own fantasy world that they’ll just make shit up about whoever is the Dem nominee.
    But take away Biden and Trump's senility is exposed for all to see.

    Likewise take away Hunter Biden and Trump's criminality is more exposed.
    Maybe, but unless the Dems nominate the risen Jesus Christ, the MAGA Right will just find something about any Dem nominee and then make stuff up. Truth is simply irrelevant to a section of Republican voters fed non-stop misinformation.
    I imagine they'd point out that Christ had a criminal conviction, for that matter...
    As he says in the gospels, "Don't forgive them father, for they know what they do. Very bad people - WITCH HUNT".
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,567

    Richard Madeley asks British Palestinian MP Layla Moran if she or her family knew about Hamas's attack before it happened

    https://twitter.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1714160604389277889

    This is in "the Jews knew not to go to work on 9/11" territory. Is he auditioning for GB News?
    Just doing what his click bait obsessed bosses at ITV want.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,855

    Richard Madeley asks British Palestinian MP Layla Moran if she or her family knew about Hamas's attack before it happened

    https://twitter.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1714160604389277889

    Please tell me Judy side-eyed him, lifted her eyes to the skies, muttered "Oh, Richard", then went on.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 12,115

    Andy_JS said:

    One of the most interesting articles I've read recently.

    "The happy dysfunction of Dover
    Americans will never create communities like the British
    By Chris Arnade"

    https://unherd.com/2023/10/the-happy-dysfunction-of-dover/

    Hmm - essentially "the British working class are happy because they know their place". Interesting, and possibly true for the beachcombers he describes, but on the whole a superficial generalisation.
    He's obviously gone out of his way to find the grimmest, grimiest places and so the article has a bit of a whiff of poverty porn about it. However, I think he is onto something, especially with regard to the contrasting attitudes towards wealth and class in the US and UK (having lived in both countries I can see the point he is making). There is a kind of making the best of things, taking the piss, stoical, cheery spirit that can still pervade the most materially deficient places and communities here - although I think that is probably waning.
    He is right that the US working classes are generally much angrier. I suspect in the US part of the story is that the white working class used to be able to look down on African Americans and this meant they didn't feel they were quite at the bottom of the heap, and now this has changed and they feel their lowly status more keenly. That's not really a factor here.
    I don't speak from direct experience -but I also get the impression that, even aside from intangibles like community spirit, the UK is a better place to be poor or poor-ish than the USA. Very broadly, if you are poor in the UK you may have less hope for things improving than your American counterparts do, but you also have less anxiety about things getting a lot worse.
    As I say, only an impression so would be interested to hear from anyone with more direct experience.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,909

    See cash is bad.

    Young people saving cash in envelopes at home as part of a social media trend are being targeted by burglars.

    Admiral Insurance warned that it had seen a rise in claims involving cash, including where significant amounts of cash kept in envelopes have been stolen during break-ins.

    “Cash stuffing”, a trend born on social media apps such as TikTok, sees savers meticulously file away cash in brightly coloured envelopes at home, rather than rely on current accounts.

    In one video posted by TikTok user BudgetsWithBeth, the self-described cash-stuffer organises her savings in various wallets with labels such as “monthly money”, “petrol”, “window cleaning” and “back to bank”.

    In the video Beth says; “It’s the start of October which means it’s time to go back to my folders and replenish them for the month.

    “I often get comments asking me, ‘What is wrong with a bank’, why do I not keep this money in there? For me, having the physical cash in front of me means that I know what my budget is and I do not overspend.

    “Since starting cash-stuffing I have saved more money than I ever did using my bank account, so for me, this works really well.”

    Beth divides her money between essential spending such as petrol and food before setting aside money for weekend and social spending. A separate folder contains dividers for “giving to charity” and “holiday fund”.

    Any surplus money from previous months, she adds, is put into a savings account. Dozens of similar videos are posted to the app under the hashtag #cashstuffing, racking up tens of thousands of likes per video.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/thieves-gen-zs-tiktok-savings-trend-viral-cash-stuffing/

    Also enables the burglars to dodge tax and NI on their earnings (and VAT if they're particularly successful in terms of turnover ) :disappointed:
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,120

    Foxy said:

    On topic, a really quite striking shift in the reason for byelections.

    Is it that our MPs are now more badly behaved? Or is it that they are better policed?

    Or is it just that MPs are younger, more likely to resign for other opportunities, and in better health?

    I think voters more sympathetic to a party that loses an MP for health reasons than one to misbehavior.

    ...although in her view they were apparently consensual - often married MPs having sex with willing young staff who saw it as prestigious or career-enhancing...
    Not a criticism of you, Nick, as clearly this is just a report of what you heard about. But isn't the enormous danger that, if a staff member is having sex with the boss due to it being "career-enhancing", the corollary of that is that not having sex with the boss is career-limiting?

    There is clearly a difference between someone physically forcing themselves on someone else on the one hand, and these sorts of power imbalances on the other. But it just shouldn't be going on in a professional environment.
    When they say that politics is like showbiz for less-than-perfect-looking people, Westminster is like Hollywood in more ways than one. It’s probably not long ago, that the political equivalents of Harvey Weinstein’s casting couch were in Portcullis House.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,120
    Selebian said:

    Richard Madeley asks British Palestinian MP Layla Moran if she or her family knew about Hamas's attack before it happened

    https://twitter.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1714160604389277889

    Found a longer clip with Moran's response. She does quite well - it would have been understandable for her just to go "WTAF?!" which is in her facial expression when first asked.
    She should have said that - including the f-word - and forced ITV to defend the questioning to OFCOM, in the face of complaints about the language.
  • Options
    Is Rishi Sunak about to get an unlikely boost by winning both the Tamworth and Mid-Bedfordshire by-elections?

    The national polls might be dire for the Conservatives but it was interesting to hear senior Tory and Labour figures yesterday forecast a double Tory win on Thursday.


    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1714200945771287027
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Selebian said:

    Richard Madeley asks British Palestinian MP Layla Moran if she or her family knew about Hamas's attack before it happened

    https://twitter.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1714160604389277889

    Found a longer clip with Moran's response. She does quite well - it would have been understandable for her just to go "WTAF?!" which is in her facial expression when first asked.
    She should have said that - including the f-word - and forced ITV to defend the questioning to OFCOM, in the face of complaints about the language.
    Live TV is almost always broadcast with a five to ten second "profanity" delay precisely to deal with that sort of situation.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,962

    See cash is bad.

    Young people saving cash in envelopes at home as part of a social media trend are being targeted by burglars.

    Admiral Insurance warned that it had seen a rise in claims involving cash, including where significant amounts of cash kept in envelopes have been stolen during break-ins.

    “Cash stuffing”, a trend born on social media apps such as TikTok, sees savers meticulously file away cash in brightly coloured envelopes at home, rather than rely on current accounts.

    In one video posted by TikTok user BudgetsWithBeth, the self-described cash-stuffer organises her savings in various wallets with labels such as “monthly money”, “petrol”, “window cleaning” and “back to bank”.

    In the video Beth says; “It’s the start of October which means it’s time to go back to my folders and replenish them for the month.

    “I often get comments asking me, ‘What is wrong with a bank’, why do I not keep this money in there? For me, having the physical cash in front of me means that I know what my budget is and I do not overspend.

    “Since starting cash-stuffing I have saved more money than I ever did using my bank account, so for me, this works really well.”

    Beth divides her money between essential spending such as petrol and food before setting aside money for weekend and social spending. A separate folder contains dividers for “giving to charity” and “holiday fund”.

    Any surplus money from previous months, she adds, is put into a savings account. Dozens of similar videos are posted to the app under the hashtag #cashstuffing, racking up tens of thousands of likes per video.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/thieves-gen-zs-tiktok-savings-trend-viral-cash-stuffing/

    Young people are completely stupid. The drop in IQ is now palpable
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 4,004

    There is a succession problem in the Democrats and that is one of the issues, IMHO, why Biden is keen to stick it out.

    Problem No.1 is Kamala Harris. If Biden bows out, then there will be pressure to elevate his VP. Kamala is not well regarded, to put it mildly.

    The other problem is that the most likely inheritors ideologically (the AOCs, the Bernies, even Warren) actively have an argument that takes pot shots at the legacies of the previous Democratic POTUS that are still around and big players in the party, and as long as that is the case there will be fighting. I think it is fair to say that the Obama promise of "Hope and Change" did not happen - but with Barack still around (and likely to be around for a long time) it's very hard to say that. It's why the media fawned over Buttigieg despite voters not caring about him - because he is the Obama mould figure.

    Newsom obviously wants the job, but I don't think he'll get it - his recent moderate / conservative streak will shut him out during the primary. I still think

    Raphael Warnock might be a good shout if he wins again - a charismatic religious African American from the South. He is also more progressive than Obama was.

    Obviously Gretcher Whitmer gets talked about a lot - she took what was becoming a pretty red state and has made it blue, as well as that she has made a big issue out of abortion - and again is more progressive than many top figures in the Democratic party; on legalisation of weed, healthcare, education etc. I think even she would be considered a threat to Obama's legacy...
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,541

    See cash is bad.

    Young people saving cash in envelopes at home as part of a social media trend are being targeted by burglars.

    Admiral Insurance warned that it had seen a rise in claims involving cash, including where significant amounts of cash kept in envelopes have been stolen during break-ins.

    “Cash stuffing”, a trend born on social media apps such as TikTok, sees savers meticulously file away cash in brightly coloured envelopes at home, rather than rely on current accounts.

    In one video posted by TikTok user BudgetsWithBeth, the self-described cash-stuffer organises her savings in various wallets with labels such as “monthly money”, “petrol”, “window cleaning” and “back to bank”.

    In the video Beth says; “It’s the start of October which means it’s time to go back to my folders and replenish them for the month.

    “I often get comments asking me, ‘What is wrong with a bank’, why do I not keep this money in there? For me, having the physical cash in front of me means that I know what my budget is and I do not overspend.

    “Since starting cash-stuffing I have saved more money than I ever did using my bank account, so for me, this works really well.”

    Beth divides her money between essential spending such as petrol and food before setting aside money for weekend and social spending. A separate folder contains dividers for “giving to charity” and “holiday fund”.

    Any surplus money from previous months, she adds, is put into a savings account. Dozens of similar videos are posted to the app under the hashtag #cashstuffing, racking up tens of thousands of likes per video.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/thieves-gen-zs-tiktok-savings-trend-viral-cash-stuffing/

    You could be doxing one of several PBers there.

    ‘Beth’ - are you there?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,120

    Heh


    No Aussie flag there? Oh no, they didn’t even make the quarter-finals! CDG > ✈️ > SYD
  • Options
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, a really quite striking shift in the reason for byelections.

    Is it that our MPs are now more badly behaved? Or is it that they are better policed?

    Or is it just that MPs are younger, more likely to resign for other opportunities, and in better health?

    I think voters more sympathetic to a party that loses an MP for health reasons than one to misbehavior.

    I think better policed. The ability to actually deal with MPs bad behaviour in away that leads to recall has only existed since 2015. How many of these MPs would have hung on without that?
    Yes, without recall it's hard to see someone like Bone being evicted.

    Without recall, would anyone even have bothered resurrecting what appears to have been an isolated incident from ten years ago?
  • Options

    See cash is bad.

    Young people saving cash in envelopes at home as part of a social media trend are being targeted by burglars.

    Admiral Insurance warned that it had seen a rise in claims involving cash, including where significant amounts of cash kept in envelopes have been stolen during break-ins.

    “Cash stuffing”, a trend born on social media apps such as TikTok, sees savers meticulously file away cash in brightly coloured envelopes at home, rather than rely on current accounts.

    In one video posted by TikTok user BudgetsWithBeth, the self-described cash-stuffer organises her savings in various wallets with labels such as “monthly money”, “petrol”, “window cleaning” and “back to bank”.

    In the video Beth says; “It’s the start of October which means it’s time to go back to my folders and replenish them for the month.

    “I often get comments asking me, ‘What is wrong with a bank’, why do I not keep this money in there? For me, having the physical cash in front of me means that I know what my budget is and I do not overspend.

    “Since starting cash-stuffing I have saved more money than I ever did using my bank account, so for me, this works really well.”

    Beth divides her money between essential spending such as petrol and food before setting aside money for weekend and social spending. A separate folder contains dividers for “giving to charity” and “holiday fund”.

    Any surplus money from previous months, she adds, is put into a savings account. Dozens of similar videos are posted to the app under the hashtag #cashstuffing, racking up tens of thousands of likes per video.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/thieves-gen-zs-tiktok-savings-trend-viral-cash-stuffing/

    You could be doxing one of several PBers there.

    ‘Beth’ - are you there?
    Translation: "I want to ban cash!" :lol:
  • Options

    Foxy said:

    On topic, a really quite striking shift in the reason for byelections.

    Is it that our MPs are now more badly behaved? Or is it that they are better policed?

    Or is it just that MPs are younger, more likely to resign for other opportunities, and in better health?

    I think voters more sympathetic to a party that loses an MP for health reasons than one to misbehavior.

    I think Nick Palmer has made the point here before that, prior to reforms brought in by the Major government, the pension scheme for MPs was very poor. Which meant MPs would literally work until they dropped. There was(is?) even a welfare fund for ex-MPs in financial distress.
    Even Harold Wilson was reported as living in genteel poverty.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,478

    Foxy said:

    On topic, a really quite striking shift in the reason for byelections.

    Is it that our MPs are now more badly behaved? Or is it that they are better policed?

    Or is it just that MPs are younger, more likely to resign for other opportunities, and in better health?

    I think voters more sympathetic to a party that loses an MP for health reasons than one to misbehavior.

    Yes and no, I think. I was a nerdish MP, as few will be surprised to hear, so I didn't use the bars or hear about many shenanigans. But my secretary talked to lots of colleagues and said shenanigans were rife, although in her view they were apparently consensual - often married MPs having sex with willing young staff who saw it as prestigious or career-enhancing or simply fancied the MP. Some MPs would get pissed in the bar during the late evening sessions. But she didn't report anything illegal or anything like the allegations against Bone. Thinking about it in retrospect, it didn't really sound very different from what you might expect from a few thousand people in close quarters away from home up to 12 hours a day.
    With no HR department or serious recourse for compliant.

    That's the crucial difference.
  • Options

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, a really quite striking shift in the reason for byelections.

    Is it that our MPs are now more badly behaved? Or is it that they are better policed?

    Or is it just that MPs are younger, more likely to resign for other opportunities, and in better health?

    I think voters more sympathetic to a party that loses an MP for health reasons than one to misbehavior.

    I think better policed. The ability to actually deal with MPs bad behaviour in away that leads to recall has only existed since 2015. How many of these MPs would have hung on without that?
    Yes, without recall it's hard to see someone like Bone being evicted.

    Without recall, would anyone even have bothered resurrecting what appears to have been an isolated incident from ten years ago?
    Am I bovvered?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,130
    edited October 2023

    Heh


    "There'll be no living with her after this!"
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,962

    Andy_JS said:

    One of the most interesting articles I've read recently.

    "The happy dysfunction of Dover
    Americans will never create communities like the British
    By Chris Arnade"

    https://unherd.com/2023/10/the-happy-dysfunction-of-dover/

    Hmm - essentially "the British working class are happy because they know their place". Interesting, and possibly true for the beachcombers he describes, but on the whole a superficial generalisation.
    He's obviously gone out of his way to find the grimmest, grimiest places and so the article has a bit of a whiff of poverty porn about it. However, I think he is onto something, especially with regard to the contrasting attitudes towards wealth and class in the US and UK (having lived in both countries I can see the point he is making). There is a kind of making the best of things, taking the piss, stoical, cheery spirit that can still pervade the most materially deficient places and communities here - although I think that is probably waning.
    He is right that the US working classes are generally much angrier. I suspect in the US part of the story is that the white working class used to be able to look down on African Americans and this meant they didn't feel they were quite at the bottom of the heap, and now this has changed and they feel their lowly status more keenly. That's not really a factor here.
    In defence of Chris Arnade, who wrote that excellent piece, this is not “poverty porn” - this is what he DOES. He goes to countries and walks through the most neglected areas - proper walks of 10 hours a day. He takes photos, notes, and he chats with everyone. No preconceptions

    It can be quite depressing but it is definitely illuminating. He did the dreary underside of Japan, recently, revealing the effects of depopulation

    And if you think he’s hard on Britain - and he is - you should see his stuff on the bleaker side of America. It is desolate
  • Options

    See cash is bad.

    Young people saving cash in envelopes at home as part of a social media trend are being targeted by burglars.

    Admiral Insurance warned that it had seen a rise in claims involving cash, including where significant amounts of cash kept in envelopes have been stolen during break-ins.

    “Cash stuffing”, a trend born on social media apps such as TikTok, sees savers meticulously file away cash in brightly coloured envelopes at home, rather than rely on current accounts.

    In one video posted by TikTok user BudgetsWithBeth, the self-described cash-stuffer organises her savings in various wallets with labels such as “monthly money”, “petrol”, “window cleaning” and “back to bank”.

    In the video Beth says; “It’s the start of October which means it’s time to go back to my folders and replenish them for the month.

    “I often get comments asking me, ‘What is wrong with a bank’, why do I not keep this money in there? For me, having the physical cash in front of me means that I know what my budget is and I do not overspend.

    “Since starting cash-stuffing I have saved more money than I ever did using my bank account, so for me, this works really well.”

    Beth divides her money between essential spending such as petrol and food before setting aside money for weekend and social spending. A separate folder contains dividers for “giving to charity” and “holiday fund”.

    Any surplus money from previous months, she adds, is put into a savings account. Dozens of similar videos are posted to the app under the hashtag #cashstuffing, racking up tens of thousands of likes per video.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/thieves-gen-zs-tiktok-savings-trend-viral-cash-stuffing/

    You say cash is bad and people should use banks instead, but banks are always getting robbed and how can you prove it wasn't your money they took? (Lonely, in Callan.)
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,779
    Leon said:

    See cash is bad.

    Young people saving cash in envelopes at home as part of a social media trend are being targeted by burglars.

    Admiral Insurance warned that it had seen a rise in claims involving cash, including where significant amounts of cash kept in envelopes have been stolen during break-ins.

    “Cash stuffing”, a trend born on social media apps such as TikTok, sees savers meticulously file away cash in brightly coloured envelopes at home, rather than rely on current accounts.

    In one video posted by TikTok user BudgetsWithBeth, the self-described cash-stuffer organises her savings in various wallets with labels such as “monthly money”, “petrol”, “window cleaning” and “back to bank”.

    In the video Beth says; “It’s the start of October which means it’s time to go back to my folders and replenish them for the month.

    “I often get comments asking me, ‘What is wrong with a bank’, why do I not keep this money in there? For me, having the physical cash in front of me means that I know what my budget is and I do not overspend.

    “Since starting cash-stuffing I have saved more money than I ever did using my bank account, so for me, this works really well.”

    Beth divides her money between essential spending such as petrol and food before setting aside money for weekend and social spending. A separate folder contains dividers for “giving to charity” and “holiday fund”.

    Any surplus money from previous months, she adds, is put into a savings account. Dozens of similar videos are posted to the app under the hashtag #cashstuffing, racking up tens of thousands of likes per video.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/thieves-gen-zs-tiktok-savings-trend-viral-cash-stuffing/

    Young people are completely stupid. The drop in IQ is now palpable
    Tell us about all the smart decisions you made when young ?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,120

    Sandpit said:

    Selebian said:

    Richard Madeley asks British Palestinian MP Layla Moran if she or her family knew about Hamas's attack before it happened

    https://twitter.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1714160604389277889

    Found a longer clip with Moran's response. She does quite well - it would have been understandable for her just to go "WTAF?!" which is in her facial expression when first asked.
    She should have said that - including the f-word - and forced ITV to defend the questioning to OFCOM, in the face of complaints about the language.
    Live TV is almost always broadcast with a five to ten second "profanity" delay precisely to deal with that sort of situation.
    Oh indeed, but the producers wouldn’t be expecting it (they’re not interviewing a musician or a comedian), and if the producer hit the big red button, there would have been a horrible cut that they’d have to explain instead. Would have been amusing either way.

    (I did once do a job in local radio, and the big red button is very real! Back in the ‘90s it was 30 seconds, and would completely screw a whole number of things if it were pressed, the least of which being having to play 30s of random jingles to re-establish the delay in the studio. Very little TV goes out actually live, sports are probably the closest).
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,962
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    See cash is bad.

    Young people saving cash in envelopes at home as part of a social media trend are being targeted by burglars.

    Admiral Insurance warned that it had seen a rise in claims involving cash, including where significant amounts of cash kept in envelopes have been stolen during break-ins.

    “Cash stuffing”, a trend born on social media apps such as TikTok, sees savers meticulously file away cash in brightly coloured envelopes at home, rather than rely on current accounts.

    In one video posted by TikTok user BudgetsWithBeth, the self-described cash-stuffer organises her savings in various wallets with labels such as “monthly money”, “petrol”, “window cleaning” and “back to bank”.

    In the video Beth says; “It’s the start of October which means it’s time to go back to my folders and replenish them for the month.

    “I often get comments asking me, ‘What is wrong with a bank’, why do I not keep this money in there? For me, having the physical cash in front of me means that I know what my budget is and I do not overspend.

    “Since starting cash-stuffing I have saved more money than I ever did using my bank account, so for me, this works really well.”

    Beth divides her money between essential spending such as petrol and food before setting aside money for weekend and social spending. A separate folder contains dividers for “giving to charity” and “holiday fund”.

    Any surplus money from previous months, she adds, is put into a savings account. Dozens of similar videos are posted to the app under the hashtag #cashstuffing, racking up tens of thousands of likes per video.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/thieves-gen-zs-tiktok-savings-trend-viral-cash-stuffing/

    Young people are completely stupid. The drop in IQ is now palpable
    Tell us about all the smart decisions you made when young ?
    1. Never get a proper job
    2. Have intense amounts of fun
    3. Get people to pay me to travel
  • Options

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, a really quite striking shift in the reason for byelections.

    Is it that our MPs are now more badly behaved? Or is it that they are better policed?

    Or is it just that MPs are younger, more likely to resign for other opportunities, and in better health?

    I think voters more sympathetic to a party that loses an MP for health reasons than one to misbehavior.

    I think better policed. The ability to actually deal with MPs bad behaviour in away that leads to recall has only existed since 2015. How many of these MPs would have hung on without that?
    Yes, without recall it's hard to see someone like Bone being evicted.

    Without recall, would anyone even have bothered resurrecting what appears to have been an isolated incident from ten years ago?
    Firstly, not an isolated incident. The report is clear there was a campaign of bullying - verbal, physical, and sexual - over a period of time.

    Secondly, complaints were made at the time and subsequently. It is largely due to the Conservative Party failing to progress an internal investigation that this has taken so long.
  • Options
    UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 835
    Leon said:

    See cash is bad.

    Young people saving cash in envelopes at home as part of a social media trend are being targeted by burglars.

    Admiral Insurance warned that it had seen a rise in claims involving cash, including where significant amounts of cash kept in envelopes have been stolen during break-ins.

    “Cash stuffing”, a trend born on social media apps such as TikTok, sees savers meticulously file away cash in brightly coloured envelopes at home, rather than rely on current accounts.

    In one video posted by TikTok user BudgetsWithBeth, the self-described cash-stuffer organises her savings in various wallets with labels such as “monthly money”, “petrol”, “window cleaning” and “back to bank”.

    In the video Beth says; “It’s the start of October which means it’s time to go back to my folders and replenish them for the month.

    “I often get comments asking me, ‘What is wrong with a bank’, why do I not keep this money in there? For me, having the physical cash in front of me means that I know what my budget is and I do not overspend.

    “Since starting cash-stuffing I have saved more money than I ever did using my bank account, so for me, this works really well.”

    Beth divides her money between essential spending such as petrol and food before setting aside money for weekend and social spending. A separate folder contains dividers for “giving to charity” and “holiday fund”.

    Any surplus money from previous months, she adds, is put into a savings account. Dozens of similar videos are posted to the app under the hashtag #cashstuffing, racking up tens of thousands of likes per video.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/thieves-gen-zs-tiktok-savings-trend-viral-cash-stuffing/

    Young people are completely stupid. The drop in IQ is now palpable
    I think it's quite interesting. I suspect, for some young people seeing and handling the physical money would be beneficial because the concept of money would be so abstract to them. Hell, I'm not young anymore and I sometimes feel like I conceptualise money as data in the ether tied to a vague memory of my balance in my banking app.

    Not saying it's right, or particularly smart, but it makes a kind of sense to me.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,779

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, a really quite striking shift in the reason for byelections.

    Is it that our MPs are now more badly behaved? Or is it that they are better policed?

    Or is it just that MPs are younger, more likely to resign for other opportunities, and in better health?

    I think voters more sympathetic to a party that loses an MP for health reasons than one to misbehavior.

    I think better policed. The ability to actually deal with MPs bad behaviour in away that leads to recall has only existed since 2015. How many of these MPs would have hung on without that?
    Yes, without recall it's hard to see someone like Bone being evicted.

    Without recall, would anyone even have bothered resurrecting what appears to have been an isolated incident from ten years ago?
    The incident wasn't 'resurrected' - its investigation by the IEP was delayed for a decade by the Conservatives. Nor was it isolated.
  • Options
    PhilPhil Posts: 2,014

    Richard Madeley asks British Palestinian MP Layla Moran if she or her family knew about Hamas's attack before it happened

    https://twitter.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1714160604389277889

    How utterly crass.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,962
    Superb. England is divided, politically, between Labour-inclined regions and Lib Dem-inclined regions, by a line that follows… Watling Street. The Roman road laid in 47 AD.


  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,120
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    One of the most interesting articles I've read recently.

    "The happy dysfunction of Dover
    Americans will never create communities like the British
    By Chris Arnade"

    https://unherd.com/2023/10/the-happy-dysfunction-of-dover/

    Hmm - essentially "the British working class are happy because they know their place". Interesting, and possibly true for the beachcombers he describes, but on the whole a superficial generalisation.
    He's obviously gone out of his way to find the grimmest, grimiest places and so the article has a bit of a whiff of poverty porn about it. However, I think he is onto something, especially with regard to the contrasting attitudes towards wealth and class in the US and UK (having lived in both countries I can see the point he is making). There is a kind of making the best of things, taking the piss, stoical, cheery spirit that can still pervade the most materially deficient places and communities here - although I think that is probably waning.
    He is right that the US working classes are generally much angrier. I suspect in the US part of the story is that the white working class used to be able to look down on African Americans and this meant they didn't feel they were quite at the bottom of the heap, and now this has changed and they feel their lowly status more keenly. That's not really a factor here.
    In defence of Chris Arnade, who wrote that excellent piece, this is not “poverty porn” - this is what he DOES. He goes to countries and walks through the most neglected areas - proper walks of 10 hours a day. He takes photos, notes, and he chats with everyone. No preconceptions

    It can be quite depressing but it is definitely illuminating. He did the dreary underside of Japan, recently, revealing the effects of depopulation

    And if you think he’s hard on Britain - and he is - you should see his stuff on the bleaker side of America. It is desolate
    That’s very useful context.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,779
    148grss said:

    There is a succession problem in the Democrats and that is one of the issues, IMHO, why Biden is keen to stick it out.

    Problem No.1 is Kamala Harris. If Biden bows out, then there will be pressure to elevate his VP. Kamala is not well regarded, to put it mildly.

    The other problem is that the most likely inheritors ideologically (the AOCs, the Bernies, even Warren) actively have an argument that takes pot shots at the legacies of the previous Democratic POTUS that are still around and big players in the party, and as long as that is the case there will be fighting. I think it is fair to say that the Obama promise of "Hope and Change" did not happen - but with Barack still around (and likely to be around for a long time) it's very hard to say that. It's why the media fawned over Buttigieg despite voters not caring about him - because he is the Obama mould figure.

    Newsom obviously wants the job, but I don't think he'll get it - his recent moderate / conservative streak will shut him out during the primary. I still think

    Raphael Warnock might be a good shout if he wins again - a charismatic religious African American from the South. He is also more progressive than Obama was.

    Obviously Gretcher Whitmer gets talked about a lot - she took what was becoming a pretty red state and has made it blue, as well as that she has made a big issue out of abortion - and again is more progressive than many top figures in the Democratic party; on legalisation of weed, healthcare, education etc. I think even she would be considered a threat to Obama's legacy...
    Can you explain what you mean by "the most likely inheritors ideologically" ?
    Being of the left of the party is very far from a slam dunk for getting the nomination; quite the opposite indeed.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,856
    "Depending on how many helicopters were present in Berdyansk and Luhansk, we may see the worst single day losses in Russian Air Force history."

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1714184214331994117
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