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The polling chart that won’t help Sunak keep his job – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    DavidL said:

    biggles said:

    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Well done to all those younger people in Poland for taking back control !

    Remarkable turnout in younger people was key to removing the PiS bigots and hate mongers .

    This is a great day for Liberal democracies who are under constant attack from the right wing who seek to peddle hate and division and try and trash democracy .

    And a warm welcome back to Donald Tusk , who should become the next PM. He was always a champion for Remainers , and was very effected by the vote . A truly lovely man.

    Tusk’s anti-immigration rhetoric during the campaign went further than Suella Braverman.

    https://x.com/donaldtusk/status/1675381156513038336
    He did what he had to do to remove the PiS .

    Tusk will always be loved by Remainers.
    I remember Remainers. Didn’t they used to be the ones in the silly blue hats? Whatever happened to them and their campaign?
    Funny that you should say that:


    I don’t see “remain” as an option? You’re talking about those who always bang on about Europe and want to join the EU. A very different thing, and not something that would survive a referendum campaign when folk studied the EU they’d be joining and what was involved.
    Brexit is as popular as a turd in a swimming pool.

    It's only a matter of time.
    You really believe that don’t you? My god you’re in for a life of disappointment politically speaking.
    The polling cannot be ignored forever. Not by a party wanting to win anyway.
    What people like Starmer understand, but you clearly don’t, is that almost by definition a “join the EU” referendum would take so long to negotiate for (assuming the prospect wasn’t vetoed) that the Gvt that introduced it would be in a mid-term lull in popularity, and in any case the reality of joining wouldn’t be popular once folk saw what was required.

    You can have your 90s nostalgia, like Farage had his 50s nostalgia, but you won’t get anywhere with it.

    In the meantime, our relationship with the EU will get a bit closer, and we’ll find the right balance between us as the old Leave/Remain politicians retire and the idea of joining falls away.
    I think we're destined for a Norway/Switzerland style relationship with the EU and, much as I would have liked us to Remain, I'm ok with that now.
    Yep. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67105143
    This is the future. Germany has lost over £8bn of exp

    DavidL said:

    biggles said:

    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Well done to all those younger people in Poland for taking back control !

    Remarkable turnout in younger people was key to removing the PiS bigots and hate mongers .

    This is a great day for Liberal democracies who are under constant attack from the right wing who seek to peddle hate and division and try and trash democracy .

    And a warm welcome back to Donald Tusk , who should become the next PM. He was always a champion for Remainers , and was very effected by the vote . A truly lovely man.

    Tusk’s anti-immigration rhetoric during the campaign went further than Suella Braverman.

    https://x.com/donaldtusk/status/1675381156513038336
    He did what he had to do to remove the PiS .

    Tusk will always be loved by Remainers.
    I remember Remainers. Didn’t they used to be the ones in the silly blue hats? Whatever happened to them and their campaign?
    Funny that you should say that:


    I don’t see “remain” as an option? You’re talking about those who always bang on about Europe and want to join the EU. A very different thing, and not something that would survive a referendum campaign when folk studied the EU they’d be joining and what was involved.
    Brexit is as popular as a turd in a swimming pool.

    It's only a matter of time.
    You really believe that don’t you? My god you’re in for a life of disappointment politically speaking.
    The polling cannot be ignored forever. Not by a party wanting to win anyway.
    What people like Starmer understand, but you clearly don’t, is that almost by definition a “join the EU” referendum would take so long to negotiate for (assuming the prospect wasn’t vetoed) that the Gvt that introduced it would be in a mid-term lull in popularity, and in any case the reality of joining wouldn’t be popular once folk saw what was required.

    You can have your 90s nostalgia, like Farage had his 50s nostalgia, but you won’t get anywhere with it.

    In the meantime, our relationship with the EU will get a bit closer, and we’ll find the right balance between us as the old Leave/Remain politicians retire and the idea of joining falls away.
    I think we're destined for a Norway/Switzerland style relationship with the EU and, much as I would have liked us to Remain, I'm ok with that now.
    Yep. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67105143
    This is the future. Germany has lost over £8bn of exports to the UK and wants them back. Sunak will probably try to beat SKS to the punch with a deal like this. Otherwise SKS will do it anyway.
    The effect on the balance of trade with Germany has been quite dramatic. Arguably the single market was actually a bad deal for Britain.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/exports/united-kingdom
    A point I have made repeatedly. The SM was a disaster for us and impoverished the country with large and growing deficits.

    Of course, it was not the SM that was the flaw, it was the refusal of our political class of both stripes to recognise that membership of the SM was a discipline, a discipline they would never accept. We could have made a success of it but only with much more conservative (small c)
    policies.
    If you read the article, the Germans are not that bothered about us. The person being asked basically said we had made our bed and had to be left to lie in it...

    They need us less than we need them, but do carry on believing in the success of Brexit. In another 70 or 80 years it might actually turn things around and produce some currently unseen benefits...

    :D:D:D

    but I expect the country's increasing irrelevance to continue as we hide behind the white cliffs and pretend that everything is peachy.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,219
    Leon said:

    I fear it is inevitable there will be a sizeable terror attack in London, or elsewhere in the UK, fairly soon

    Well we have had them before with the IRA and 7/7 etc, the security services are always vigilant
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,580
    Nolan Peterson
    @nolanwpeterson

    These days we have a glimpse of the world the isolationists want you to live in. A world without US security guarantees. A world where people straight-face apologize for — even celebrate — genocidal, atavistic barbarism. For those who parrot isolationist slogans for the sake of media attention, I hope you’re ready for the world you’ve chosen to live in. Americans are not quarantined from the consequences of this violent world. No country is. And if you think America’s past sins mean we should pass the baton to countries like China, Russia, and Iran — well, I hope you’re ready to live in that world. Because it is the height of naive stupidity to think that two oceans are a big enough barrier to protect us. The veneer of civilization is razor thin. Hiding just under the surface are the DNA strands that led to Bucha and October 7. We, as a species, are always treading water over the abyss. And if we stop kicking, we sink, quickly and easily, into those dark depths from which we thought we had escaped.

    https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,639

    DavidL said:

    biggles said:

    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Well done to all those younger people in Poland for taking back control !

    Remarkable turnout in younger people was key to removing the PiS bigots and hate mongers .

    This is a great day for Liberal democracies who are under constant attack from the right wing who seek to peddle hate and division and try and trash democracy .

    And a warm welcome back to Donald Tusk , who should become the next PM. He was always a champion for Remainers , and was very effected by the vote . A truly lovely man.

    Tusk’s anti-immigration rhetoric during the campaign went further than Suella Braverman.

    https://x.com/donaldtusk/status/1675381156513038336
    He did what he had to do to remove the PiS .

    Tusk will always be loved by Remainers.
    I remember Remainers. Didn’t they used to be the ones in the silly blue hats? Whatever happened to them and their campaign?
    Funny that you should say that:


    I don’t see “remain” as an option? You’re talking about those who always bang on about Europe and want to join the EU. A very different thing, and not something that would survive a referendum campaign when folk studied the EU they’d be joining and what was involved.
    Brexit is as popular as a turd in a swimming pool.

    It's only a matter of time.
    You really believe that don’t you? My god you’re in for a life of disappointment politically speaking.
    The polling cannot be ignored forever. Not by a party wanting to win anyway.
    What people like Starmer understand, but you clearly don’t, is that almost by definition a “join the EU” referendum would take so long to negotiate for (assuming the prospect wasn’t vetoed) that the Gvt that introduced it would be in a mid-term lull in popularity, and in any case the reality of joining wouldn’t be popular once folk saw what was required.

    You can have your 90s nostalgia, like Farage had his 50s nostalgia, but you won’t get anywhere with it.

    In the meantime, our relationship with the EU will get a bit closer, and we’ll find the right balance between us as the old Leave/Remain politicians retire and the idea of joining falls away.
    I think we're destined for a Norway/Switzerland style relationship with the EU and, much as I would have liked us to Remain, I'm ok with that now.
    Yep. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67105143
    This is the future. Germany has lost over £8bn of exports to the UK and wants them back. Sunak will probably try to beat SKS to the punch with a deal like this. Otherwise SKS will do it anyway.
    The effect on the balance of trade with Germany has been quite dramatic. Arguably the single market was actually a bad deal for Britain.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/exports/united-kingdom
    Your exports graph shows German exports to the UK falling from £95bn in 2016 to £78bn in 2022. Meanwhile the equivalent graph shows German imports from the UK unchanged at about £37bn in both 2016 and 2022.

    So that's a £17bn fall in the net surplus balance of Germany's trade with the UK since Brexit. No wonder they want to talk.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/imports/united-kingdom


  • Options

    DavidL said:

    biggles said:

    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Well done to all those younger people in Poland for taking back control !

    Remarkable turnout in younger people was key to removing the PiS bigots and hate mongers .

    This is a great day for Liberal democracies who are under constant attack from the right wing who seek to peddle hate and division and try and trash democracy .

    And a warm welcome back to Donald Tusk , who should become the next PM. He was always a champion for Remainers , and was very effected by the vote . A truly lovely man.

    Tusk’s anti-immigration rhetoric during the campaign went further than Suella Braverman.

    https://x.com/donaldtusk/status/1675381156513038336
    He did what he had to do to remove the PiS .

    Tusk will always be loved by Remainers.
    I remember Remainers. Didn’t they used to be the ones in the silly blue hats? Whatever happened to them and their campaign?
    Funny that you should say that:


    I don’t see “remain” as an option? You’re talking about those who always bang on about Europe and want to join the EU. A very different thing, and not something that would survive a referendum campaign when folk studied the EU they’d be joining and what was involved.
    Brexit is as popular as a turd in a swimming pool.

    It's only a matter of time.
    You really believe that don’t you? My god you’re in for a life of disappointment politically speaking.
    The polling cannot be ignored forever. Not by a party wanting to win anyway.
    What people like Starmer understand, but you clearly don’t, is that almost by definition a “join the EU” referendum would take so long to negotiate for (assuming the prospect wasn’t vetoed) that the Gvt that introduced it would be in a mid-term lull in popularity, and in any case the reality of joining wouldn’t be popular once folk saw what was required.

    You can have your 90s nostalgia, like Farage had his 50s nostalgia, but you won’t get anywhere with it.

    In the meantime, our relationship with the EU will get a bit closer, and we’ll find the right balance between us as the old Leave/Remain politicians retire and the idea of joining falls away.
    I think we're destined for a Norway/Switzerland style relationship with the EU and, much as I would have liked us to Remain, I'm ok with that now.
    Yep. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67105143
    This is the future. Germany has lost over £8bn of exp

    DavidL said:

    biggles said:

    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Well done to all those younger people in Poland for taking back control !

    Remarkable turnout in younger people was key to removing the PiS bigots and hate mongers .

    This is a great day for Liberal democracies who are under constant attack from the right wing who seek to peddle hate and division and try and trash democracy .

    And a warm welcome back to Donald Tusk , who should become the next PM. He was always a champion for Remainers , and was very effected by the vote . A truly lovely man.

    Tusk’s anti-immigration rhetoric during the campaign went further than Suella Braverman.

    https://x.com/donaldtusk/status/1675381156513038336
    He did what he had to do to remove the PiS .

    Tusk will always be loved by Remainers.
    I remember Remainers. Didn’t they used to be the ones in the silly blue hats? Whatever happened to them and their campaign?
    Funny that you should say that:


    I don’t see “remain” as an option? You’re talking about those who always bang on about Europe and want to join the EU. A very different thing, and not something that would survive a referendum campaign when folk studied the EU they’d be joining and what was involved.
    Brexit is as popular as a turd in a swimming pool.

    It's only a matter of time.
    You really believe that don’t you? My god you’re in for a life of disappointment politically speaking.
    The polling cannot be ignored forever. Not by a party wanting to win anyway.
    What people like Starmer understand, but you clearly don’t, is that almost by definition a “join the EU” referendum would take so long to negotiate for (assuming the prospect wasn’t vetoed) that the Gvt that introduced it would be in a mid-term lull in popularity, and in any case the reality of joining wouldn’t be popular once folk saw what was required.

    You can have your 90s nostalgia, like Farage had his 50s nostalgia, but you won’t get anywhere with it.

    In the meantime, our relationship with the EU will get a bit closer, and we’ll find the right balance between us as the old Leave/Remain politicians retire and the idea of joining falls away.
    I think we're destined for a Norway/Switzerland style relationship with the EU and, much as I would have liked us to Remain, I'm ok with that now.
    Yep. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67105143
    This is the future. Germany has lost over £8bn of exports to the UK and wants them back. Sunak will probably try to beat SKS to the punch with a deal like this. Otherwise SKS will do it anyway.
    The effect on the balance of trade with Germany has been quite dramatic. Arguably the single market was actually a bad deal for Britain.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/exports/united-kingdom
    A point I have made repeatedly. The SM was a disaster for us and impoverished the country with large and growing deficits.

    Of course, it was not the SM that was the flaw, it was the refusal of our political class of both stripes to recognise that membership of the SM was a discipline, a discipline they would never accept. We could have made a success of it but only with much more conservative (small c)
    policies.
    If you read the article, the Germans are not that bothered about us. The person being asked basically said we had made our bed and had to be left to lie in it...

    They need us less than we need them, but do carry on believing in the success of Brexit. In another 70 or 80 years it might actually turn things around and produce some currently unseen benefits...

    :D:D:D

    but I expect the country's increasing irrelevance to continue as we hide behind the white cliffs and pretend that everything is peachy.
    Made is one way of describing what we did to our bed..
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Irish President says that Von der Leyen’s support for Israel is “thoughtless and reckless”.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2023/10/16/von-der-leyens-approach-to-israel-hamas-conflict-thoughtless-and-reckless-higgins/

    And republicans say Higgins is beloved by everyone and never says anything controversial!

    Our monarchs never interfere in politics or foreign policy as blatantly as that
    Our monarchs never do anything except other than to act as the ongoing reason for institutionalised snobbery in the UK.

    It is probably why, for some groups of people, ineptitude and stupidity does not matter so long as you have the right ancestors.
    Our constitutional monarchs know when to keep their mouths shut, they are far better than a politician as head of state, as Higgins has just proved even a supposedly 'ceremonial' one
    You are such comedy gold!
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,580

    carnforth said:

    Omnisis:



    Rejoin is < 30% if EU insists on Euro membership. Even just 45% for Lib Dems.

    The only way the UK ever goes back into the "EU" is if there is a non-Euro outer tier.

    The arrogant idiots of Brussels COULD have engaged with Cameron on this concept. It would have been enough for Brexit to have failed.
    Rejoin is an utter fantasy whilst joining the euro is non-negotiable.

    Hell, I would vote 'no' in those circumstances.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,139
    "Andrew Bridgen: MP claims he was slapped on the head in Portcullis House

    Mr Bridgen, who joined the Reclaim Party after being kicked out of the Conservatives, demanded that Tory Crispin Blunt apologises for the "chop" in Parliament on Monday. When asked about the reports, Mr Blunt said the allegation was "not correct". Parliamentary officials confirmed they were aware of an incident. The alleged slap is said to have taken place in the atrium of Portcullis House."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-67129290
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Well done to all those younger people in Poland for taking back control !

    Remarkable turnout in younger people was key to removing the PiS bigots and hate mongers .

    This is a great day for Liberal democracies who are under constant attack from the right wing who seek to peddle hate and division and try and trash democracy .

    And a warm welcome back to Donald Tusk , who should become the next PM. He was always a champion for Remainers , and was very effected by the vote . A truly lovely man.

    Tusk’s anti-immigration rhetoric during the campaign went further than Suella Braverman.

    https://x.com/donaldtusk/status/1675381156513038336
    He did what he had to do to remove the PiS .

    Tusk will always be loved by Remainers.
    I remember Remainers. Didn’t they used to be the ones in the silly blue hats? Whatever happened to them and their campaign?
    Funny that you should say that:


    Misleading if terms of rejoin are not explicit.
    I was going to make a snarky comment about how the terms of Leave were not explicit, and that didn't stop us voting on it.

    But, I would hope, that 2016 serves a lesson to all of us. If you're going to have referendum, make sure it is explicit what is going to happen.
    Verily. It was a terrible error by Cameron. He should have got both sides to elaborate, beforehand

    And I speak as a Leave voter who still believes Leave was the correct vote. My alleged correctitude doesn't matter, referendums only work with a highly informed electorate

    The same, of course, applies to the Scotch indyref of 2014. Everyone was voting blind. "Oh yeah vote YES we'll still be in the EU and using the pound, probably, who cares, whatevs, just vote YES"

    Absolutely irresponsible. Never again, either way, or for any subject
    Agreed. Also let's not have any future referendums that make constitutional (including Rejoin if that ever comes to pass) without requiring 50% of the electorate to have voted for it.
    Yup

    The Aussies are right to have this 50% plus four (of six) states rule. Really big constitutional changes need MASSIVE majority support, or they cause bitter division for a loooooooong time
    I think it's more that the government has to have a view. They have to have a plan to put to the voters in a referendum.
    They don't.

    Should we join the EU yes or no?

    If yes it mandates UKG to negotiate the best entry terms they can get.

    Same as before but reversed. Nothing impossible about that.
    So they can accept utter capitulation to the EU on whatever the EU requires?

    Getting approval to that from the voters of the UK would be impossible.

  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    HYUFD said:

    biggles said:

    HYUFD said:

    carnforth said:

    Omnisis:



    Rejoin is < 30% if EU insists on Euro membership. Even just 45% for Lib Dems.

    Conservative voters then massively opposed, Labour voters split down the middle, only a plurality of LDs would indeed back rejoining the EU with the Euro. However then again the Liberals have always been the most pro EU party, from Thorpe to Jenkins and Steel, to Ashdown, Kennedy, Clegg, Swinson and even Davey is still more pro realignment than Starmer and Sunak.

    LDs also don't need to care what the working class redwall voters think about them either as they will never vote Liberal anyway, posher bluewall seats are more their target
    Ah, but in this context don’t call them “Liberals”. The proper old Liberal Party was deeply sceptical. Were it still around, in numbers, it would be my party.
    The Liberal Party, even under Thorpe and before merger with the SDP, was also pro EEC.

    The Liberal Party you are talking about is just the tiny rump who refused to join the LDs
    No, I just don’t view wanting to join the common market as being (in today’s world) overly pro-EU. I suspect we can agree to ignore Steel as basically a social Democrat, and Thorpe was nudging that way. Look at the logic of their positions before then, and certainly the real Liberal Party and it’s proper grandees.


  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,556
    Leon said:

    Better news

    #Breaking and Unconfirmed: The attacker has been arrested by Belgian Police #Brussels #Belgium #France #Sweden #UK #India #Internationalleaks


    Supposedly 5 dead and 8 injured. All unconfirmed

    However:


    Breaking:

    "5 people confirmed dead after Islamic terrorist opens fired on civilians in Brussels, Belgium.

    The gunman is at large, on a motorbike wearing an orange jacket.

    Get inside immediately if you are in Brussels.

    Reports that he is heading to the French border."

    https://x.com/OliLondonTV/status/1714028967097725149?s=20

    Well one good thing about the French is that their police won't think twice about killing this rat.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,252
    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    dixiedean said:

    Yes the Tories may get more seats with Mordaunt as leader.
    The issue is they wouldn't get her as leader.

    Why on earth does anyone still rate her after her ludicrous and vacuous speech during the party conference? It was an embarrassment.
    She carried a sword. She doesn't represent the Badenoch or Braverman wings.
    Ah, so she represents the Empty Headed Wing and is the one the male members would like to f***. If only they could.

    I see it now.
    That line is beneath you - and it is one you have said the likes of before. Saying the *only* reason someone could have support is because of her attractiveness says more about you than her, or them.

    I actually rate her, but don't fancy her. Now, if I was to go solely on attractiveness I'd be firmly on team Rayner (*), but I think she's not particularly good, the 'scum' comment being an example.

    I'd rather have Mordaunt than Rayner as PM. But preferably neither.

    (*) I lived with a lovely redhead for four years.
    I could collect all the comments on here from the male members of this forum that show precisely that it was her attractiveness which interested them in her. It was embarrassing seeing it. But not at all unexpected. Though quite interesting seeing how many different ways of saying "phwoar - I fancy her" men could come up with.

    (Snip).
    Please do collect them, and compare them about comments made about other politicians.

    If you think she has 'vacuity of thinking', by all means attack that. Discounting her because you think her only appeal is that men find her attractive is not a valid or attractive argument, and one that says more about you than her.
    Sorry, but Cyclefree is right on this.
    You can argue she’s wrong to generalise in that manner, but it’s not as though there wasn’t plenty of evidence to generalise from.
    What @JosiasJessop does not get - or chooses not to - is that I am criticising the men who think that quite as much as Mordaunt.

    It is quite notable that her main attraction for many on here is her attractiveness not her achievements or thoughts.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,580
    Another bad day for Sunak...

    Jack Surfleet
    @jacksurfleet

    Tuesday's DAILY MAIL: Violent prisoners to be let out early
    #tomorrowspaperstoday

    Actually says "by a tory government" underneath.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,116
    .


    Natasha Loder 🐋
    @natashaloder·
    2h
    What I don’t understand is how you can be fired for drawing something. If a writer submitted copy that the editor thought was racist then it would either get changed or spiked. You wouldn’t get fired. That is sort of the point of editors.

    Why is this difficult to understand ?

    A long pattern of being offensive without being funny, to the extent it makes the news, and to the detriment of the employer, is likely to get any cartoonist fired. And they appear to be paying him until the end of his contract.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,162

    DavidL said:

    biggles said:

    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Well done to all those younger people in Poland for taking back control !

    Remarkable turnout in younger people was key to removing the PiS bigots and hate mongers .

    This is a great day for Liberal democracies who are under constant attack from the right wing who seek to peddle hate and division and try and trash democracy .

    And a warm welcome back to Donald Tusk , who should become the next PM. He was always a champion for Remainers , and was very effected by the vote . A truly lovely man.

    Tusk’s anti-immigration rhetoric during the campaign went further than Suella Braverman.

    https://x.com/donaldtusk/status/1675381156513038336
    He did what he had to do to remove the PiS .

    Tusk will always be loved by Remainers.
    I remember Remainers. Didn’t they used to be the ones in the silly blue hats? Whatever happened to them and their campaign?
    Funny that you should say that:


    I don’t see “remain” as an option? You’re talking about those who always bang on about Europe and want to join the EU. A very different thing, and not something that would survive a referendum campaign when folk studied the EU they’d be joining and what was involved.
    Brexit is as popular as a turd in a swimming pool.

    It's only a matter of time.
    You really believe that don’t you? My god you’re in for a life of disappointment politically speaking.
    The polling cannot be ignored forever. Not by a party wanting to win anyway.
    What people like Starmer understand, but you clearly don’t, is that almost by definition a “join the EU” referendum would take so long to negotiate for (assuming the prospect wasn’t vetoed) that the Gvt that introduced it would be in a mid-term lull in popularity, and in any case the reality of joining wouldn’t be popular once folk saw what was required.

    You can have your 90s nostalgia, like Farage had his 50s nostalgia, but you won’t get anywhere with it.

    In the meantime, our relationship with the EU will get a bit closer, and we’ll find the right balance between us as the old Leave/Remain politicians retire and the idea of joining falls away.
    I think we're destined for a Norway/Switzerland style relationship with the EU and, much as I would have liked us to Remain, I'm ok with that now.
    Yep. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67105143
    This is the future. Germany has lost over £8bn of exports to the UK and wants them back. Sunak will probably try to beat SKS to the punch with a deal like this. Otherwise
    SKS will do it anyway.
    The effect on the balance of trade with Germany has been quite dramatic. Arguably the single market was actually a bad deal for Britain.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/exports/united-kingdom
    It was a terrible deal for the UK (you’ll have to imagine a Canadian accent).

    Our competitive advantage is in services - which were barely covered - and our comparative disadvantage in manufacturing
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,139
    edited October 2023
    More on this.

    "Andrew Bridgen
    @ABridgen

    I don't condone any violence at all and any violence I see, I will always report to the police. Crispin Blunt clearly thinks that unprovoked attacks are legitimate. I will always stand up for peace in Israel and indeed around the world.

    Quote
    Guido Fawkes
    @GuidoFawkes
    ·
    5h
    Hamas Sympathiser Physically Attacks MP in Portcullis House https://order-order.com/2023/10/16/hamas-sympathiser-physically-attacks-mp-in-portcullis-house"

    https://twitter.com/ABridgen/status/1713958871646003419
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Well done to all those younger people in Poland for taking back control !

    Remarkable turnout in younger people was key to removing the PiS bigots and hate mongers .

    This is a great day for Liberal democracies who are under constant attack from the right wing who seek to peddle hate and division and try and trash democracy .

    And a warm welcome back to Donald Tusk , who should become the next PM. He was always a champion for Remainers , and was very effected by the vote . A truly lovely man.

    Tusk’s anti-immigration rhetoric during the campaign went further than Suella Braverman.

    https://x.com/donaldtusk/status/1675381156513038336
    He did what he had to do to remove the PiS .

    Tusk will always be loved by Remainers.
    I remember Remainers. Didn’t they used to be the ones in the silly blue hats? Whatever happened to them and their campaign?
    Funny that you should say that:


    Misleading if terms of rejoin are not explicit.
    I was going to make a snarky comment about how the terms of Leave were not explicit, and that didn't stop us voting on it.

    But, I would hope, that 2016 serves a lesson to all of us. If you're going to have referendum, make sure it is explicit what is going to happen.
    Verily. It was a terrible error by Cameron. He should have got both sides to elaborate, beforehand

    And I speak as a Leave voter who still believes Leave was the correct vote. My alleged correctitude doesn't matter, referendums only work with a highly informed electorate

    The same, of course, applies to the Scotch indyref of 2014. Everyone was voting blind. "Oh yeah vote YES we'll still be in the EU and using the pound, probably, who cares, whatevs, just vote YES"

    Absolutely irresponsible. Never again, either way, or for any subject
    Agreed. Also let's not have any future referendums that make constitutional (including Rejoin if that ever comes to pass) without requiring 50% of the electorate to have voted for it.
    Yup

    The Aussies are right to have this 50% plus four (of six) states rule. Really big constitutional changes need MASSIVE majority support, or they cause bitter division for a loooooooong time
    I think it's more that the government has to have a view. They have to have a plan to put to the voters in a referendum.
    They don't.

    Should we join the EU yes or no?

    If yes it mandates UKG to negotiate the best entry terms they can get.

    Same as before but reversed. Nothing impossible about that.
    So they can accept utter capitulation to the EU on whatever the EU requires?

    Getting approval to that from the voters of the UK would be impossible.

    EU actors would not be silent prior to any campaign. Things like the euro would be front and centre. As would Schengen.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,473
    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Well done to all those younger people in Poland for taking back control !

    Remarkable turnout in younger people was key to removing the PiS bigots and hate mongers .

    This is a great day for Liberal democracies who are under constant attack from the right wing who seek to peddle hate and division and try and trash democracy .

    And a warm welcome back to Donald Tusk , who should become the next PM. He was always a champion for Remainers , and was very effected by the vote . A truly lovely man.

    Tusk’s anti-immigration rhetoric during the campaign went further than Suella Braverman.

    https://x.com/donaldtusk/status/1675381156513038336
    He did what he had to do to remove the PiS .

    Tusk will always be loved by Remainers.
    I remember Remainers. Didn’t they used to be the ones in the silly blue hats? Whatever happened to them and their campaign?
    Funny that you should say that:


    LOL. This is going to change as it becomes obvious the entire EU swings hard right, as it is already doing. And will do with even greater vigour with the upcoming terror assault on all our cities
    Given the right is bolstered by fear and division it must be hard for you not to be excited by the prospect of fear and division. You do well to keep this in check.
    Eh? It isn't the right which is trying to subdivide us into identity groups to fight one another for our place in the pecking order.
    That's exactly what the 'multiculturalism doesn't work' merchants do. And they gain traction when things kick off.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,219

    Another bad day for Sunak...

    Jack Surfleet
    @jacksurfleet

    Tuesday's DAILY MAIL: Violent prisoners to be let out early
    #tomorrowspaperstoday

    Actually says "by a tory government" underneath.

    It is only those with sentences up to 4 years and then only 18 days early
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,162

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Looks like Iran is joining in the fun

    🇮🇷🇵🇸🇱🇧⚔️🇮🇱🏴‍ Iranian Foreign Minister: It is expected that in the coming hours, the Axis of Resistance or the Islamic Republic of Iran will take any preemptive action against the Zionist entity.

    https://x.com/Hawkeye1745/status/1714006462232510902?s=20

    This is it lads, the big one. Time for a group hug. It's been a gas

    The West would be in real trouble if Russia, Iran and China all launched attacks at the same time. Luckily they haven't so far, as we've seen from the timing of Russia / Ukraine.
    The weak link in that group is China. Not because we wouldn’t be in mighty trouble if it launched a war in Taiwan, but because I remain to be convinced it really wants one.

    I think it suits China to make the US/West scared that it might attack Taiwan, but that is used as a cover to divert eyes away from all the other slow influence building it is getting on with elsewhere.
    Although Kenya not happy at the moment
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,219
    biggles said:

    HYUFD said:

    biggles said:

    HYUFD said:

    carnforth said:

    Omnisis:



    Rejoin is < 30% if EU insists on Euro membership. Even just 45% for Lib Dems.

    Conservative voters then massively opposed, Labour voters split down the middle, only a plurality of LDs would indeed back rejoining the EU with the Euro. However then again the Liberals have always been the most pro EU party, from Thorpe to Jenkins and Steel, to Ashdown, Kennedy, Clegg, Swinson and even Davey is still more pro realignment than Starmer and Sunak.

    LDs also don't need to care what the working class redwall voters think about them either as they will never vote Liberal anyway, posher bluewall seats are more their target
    Ah, but in this context don’t call them “Liberals”. The proper old Liberal Party was deeply sceptical. Were it still around, in numbers, it would be my party.
    The Liberal Party, even under Thorpe and before merger with the SDP, was also pro EEC.

    The Liberal Party you are talking about is just the tiny rump who refused to join the LDs
    No, I just don’t view wanting to join the common market as being (in today’s world) overly pro-EU. I suspect we can agree to ignore Steel as basically a social Democrat, and Thorpe was nudging that way. Look at the logic of their positions before then, and certainly the real Liberal Party and it’s proper grandees.


    What you are talking about is a Libertarian Party, which is a different thing and basically little different to Liz Truss
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,803
    It certainly feels like the Israel / Palestine issue has evolved in to a 'two sides' conflict now. Whatever support Israel had after last week it is now losing.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,219
    darkage said:

    It certainly feels like the Israel / Palestine issue has evolved in to a 'two sides' conflict now. Whatever support Israel had after last week it is now losing.

    Not in the US
    https://thehill.com/policy/international/4255413-most-americans-us-government-support-israel/
    The NPR-PBS News Hour-Marist poll found that nearly two in three Americans — or roughly 65 percent — say the government should publicly support Israel. About 23 percent said the U.S. should say or do nothing related to the conflict, and 8 percent say the U.S. should publicly criticize Israel.

    Partisanship did not seem to play much of a role in the results, either, according to the poll. Around 77 percent of Republicans, 69 percent of Democrats and 54 percent of independents said they believe the U.S. should show public support for Israel amid the war...Forty-four percent of those surveyed think the Israel Defense Force’s (IDF) response to Saturday’s surprise attacks was appropriate. About a quarter of respondents, or roughly 26 percent, believe the response was “too much” and 27 percent say it has been “too little,” the survey found.

    ...Republicans are three times more likely (39 percent) than Democrats (13 percent) to say the Israeli military response wasn’t strong enough, the survey results show.'
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,116
    edited October 2023
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Well done to all those younger people in Poland for taking back control !

    Remarkable turnout in younger people was key to removing the PiS bigots and hate mongers .

    This is a great day for Liberal democracies who are under constant attack from the right wing who seek to peddle hate and division and try and trash democracy .

    And a warm welcome back to Donald Tusk , who should become the next PM. He was always a champion for Remainers , and was very effected by the vote . A truly lovely man.

    Tusk’s anti-immigration rhetoric during the campaign went further than Suella Braverman.

    https://x.com/donaldtusk/status/1675381156513038336
    He did what he had to do to remove the PiS .

    Tusk will always be loved by Remainers.
    I remember Remainers. Didn’t they used to be the ones in the silly blue hats? Whatever happened to them and their campaign?
    Funny that you should say that:


    Misleading if terms of rejoin are not explicit.
    I was going to make a snarky comment about how the terms of Leave were not explicit, and that didn't stop us voting on it.

    But, I would hope, that 2016 serves a lesson to all of us. If you're going to have referendum, make sure it is explicit what is going to happen.
    Verily. It was a terrible error by Cameron. He should have got both sides to elaborate, beforehand

    And I speak as a Leave voter who still believes Leave was the correct vote. My alleged correctitude doesn't matter, referendums only work with a highly informed electorate

    The same, of course, applies to the Scotch indyref of 2014. Everyone was voting blind. "Oh yeah vote YES we'll still be in the EU and using the pound, probably, who cares, whatevs, just vote YES"

    Absolutely irresponsible. Never again, either way, or for any subject
    Agreed. Also let's not have any future referendums that make constitutional (including Rejoin if that ever comes to pass) without requiring 50% of the electorate to have voted for it.
    Yup

    The Aussies are right to have this 50% plus four (of six) states rule. Really big constitutional changes need MASSIVE majority support, or they cause bitter division for a loooooooong time
    I think it's more that the government has to have a view. They have to have a plan to put to the voters in a referendum.
    They don't.

    Should we join the EU yes or no?

    If yes it mandates UKG to negotiate the best entry terms they can get.

    Same as before but reversed. Nothing impossible about that.
    Indeed.
    Whether that’s sufficiently credible to win a referendum some time in the future, who knows ?
    But it probably makes more sense in planning terms than did Brexit, since rejoining wouldn’t have so uncertain a destination.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    HYUFD said:

    biggles said:

    HYUFD said:

    biggles said:

    HYUFD said:

    carnforth said:

    Omnisis:



    Rejoin is < 30% if EU insists on Euro membership. Even just 45% for Lib Dems.

    Conservative voters then massively opposed, Labour voters split down the middle, only a plurality of LDs would indeed back rejoining the EU with the Euro. However then again the Liberals have always been the most pro EU party, from Thorpe to Jenkins and Steel, to Ashdown, Kennedy, Clegg, Swinson and even Davey is still more pro realignment than Starmer and Sunak.

    LDs also don't need to care what the working class redwall voters think about them either as they will never vote Liberal anyway, posher bluewall seats are more their target
    Ah, but in this context don’t call them “Liberals”. The proper old Liberal Party was deeply sceptical. Were it still around, in numbers, it would be my party.
    The Liberal Party, even under Thorpe and before merger with the SDP, was also pro EEC.

    The Liberal Party you are talking about is just the tiny rump who refused to join the LDs
    No, I just don’t view wanting to join the common market as being (in today’s world) overly pro-EU. I suspect we can agree to ignore Steel as basically a social Democrat, and Thorpe was nudging that way. Look at the logic of their positions before then, and certainly the real Liberal Party and it’s proper grandees.


    What you are talking about is a Libertarian Party, which is a different thing and basically little different to Liz Truss
    No I’m talking about Gladstonian Liberalism, and even Lloyd-George’s social liberalism. Totally different to Truss if applied to a modern context.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    darkage said:

    It certainly feels like the Israel / Palestine issue has evolved in to a 'two sides' conflict now. Whatever support Israel had after last week it is now losing.

    Perhaps. But if it has then it’s clear which side is ours.
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    biggles said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Well done to all those younger people in Poland for taking back control !

    Remarkable turnout in younger people was key to removing the PiS bigots and hate mongers .

    This is a great day for Liberal democracies who are under constant attack from the right wing who seek to peddle hate and division and try and trash democracy .

    And a warm welcome back to Donald Tusk , who should become the next PM. He was always a champion for Remainers , and was very effected by the vote . A truly lovely man.

    Tusk’s anti-immigration rhetoric during the campaign went further than Suella Braverman.

    https://x.com/donaldtusk/status/1675381156513038336
    He did what he had to do to remove the PiS .

    Tusk will always be loved by Remainers.
    I remember Remainers. Didn’t they used to be the ones in the silly blue hats? Whatever happened to them and their campaign?
    Funny that you should say that:


    Misleading if terms of rejoin are not explicit.
    I was going to make a snarky comment about how the terms of Leave were not explicit, and that didn't stop us voting on it.

    But, I would hope, that 2016 serves a lesson to all of us. If you're going to have referendum, make sure it is explicit what is going to happen.
    Verily. It was a terrible error by Cameron. He should have got both sides to elaborate, beforehand

    And I speak as a Leave voter who still believes Leave was the correct vote. My alleged correctitude doesn't matter, referendums only work with a highly informed electorate

    The same, of course, applies to the Scotch indyref of 2014. Everyone was voting blind. "Oh yeah vote YES we'll still be in the EU and using the pound, probably, who cares, whatevs, just vote YES"

    Absolutely irresponsible. Never again, either way, or for any subject
    Agreed. Also let's not have any future referendums that make constitutional (including Rejoin if that ever comes to pass) without requiring 50% of the electorate to have voted for it.
    Yup

    The Aussies are right to have this 50% plus four (of six) states rule. Really big constitutional changes need MASSIVE majority support, or they cause bitter division for a loooooooong time
    I think it's more that the government has to have a view. They have to have a plan to put to the voters in a referendum.
    They don't.

    Should we join the EU yes or no?

    If yes it mandates UKG to negotiate the best entry terms they can get.

    Same as before but reversed. Nothing impossible about that.
    So they can accept utter capitulation to the EU on whatever the EU requires?

    Getting approval to that from the voters of the UK would be impossible.

    EU actors would not be silent prior to any campaign. Things like the euro would be front and centre. As would Schengen.
    As it should be. Not everyone sees it as a bad thing.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,139
    darkage said:

    It certainly feels like the Israel / Palestine issue has evolved in to a 'two sides' conflict now. Whatever support Israel had after last week it is now losing.

    Based on?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,219
    biggles said:

    HYUFD said:

    biggles said:

    HYUFD said:

    biggles said:

    HYUFD said:

    carnforth said:

    Omnisis:



    Rejoin is < 30% if EU insists on Euro membership. Even just 45% for Lib Dems.

    Conservative voters then massively opposed, Labour voters split down the middle, only a plurality of LDs would indeed back rejoining the EU with the Euro. However then again the Liberals have always been the most pro EU party, from Thorpe to Jenkins and Steel, to Ashdown, Kennedy, Clegg, Swinson and even Davey is still more pro realignment than Starmer and Sunak.

    LDs also don't need to care what the working class redwall voters think about them either as they will never vote Liberal anyway, posher bluewall seats are more their target
    Ah, but in this context don’t call them “Liberals”. The proper old Liberal Party was deeply sceptical. Were it still around, in numbers, it would be my party.
    The Liberal Party, even under Thorpe and before merger with the SDP, was also pro EEC.

    The Liberal Party you are talking about is just the tiny rump who refused to join the LDs
    No, I just don’t view wanting to join the common market as being (in today’s world) overly pro-EU. I suspect we can agree to ignore Steel as basically a social Democrat, and Thorpe was nudging that way. Look at the logic of their positions before then, and certainly the real Liberal Party and it’s proper grandees.


    What you are talking about is a Libertarian Party, which is a different thing and basically little different to Liz Truss
    No I’m talking about Gladstonian Liberalism, and even Lloyd-George’s social liberalism. Totally different to Truss if applied to a modern context.
    Not that different and Gladstonian Liberals are basically on the Orange Book wing of the LDs and Lloyd George Liberals on the Social Democrat wing of the LDs
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370

    biggles said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Well done to all those younger people in Poland for taking back control !

    Remarkable turnout in younger people was key to removing the PiS bigots and hate mongers .

    This is a great day for Liberal democracies who are under constant attack from the right wing who seek to peddle hate and division and try and trash democracy .

    And a warm welcome back to Donald Tusk , who should become the next PM. He was always a champion for Remainers , and was very effected by the vote . A truly lovely man.

    Tusk’s anti-immigration rhetoric during the campaign went further than Suella Braverman.

    https://x.com/donaldtusk/status/1675381156513038336
    He did what he had to do to remove the PiS .

    Tusk will always be loved by Remainers.
    I remember Remainers. Didn’t they used to be the ones in the silly blue hats? Whatever happened to them and their campaign?
    Funny that you should say that:


    Misleading if terms of rejoin are not explicit.
    I was going to make a snarky comment about how the terms of Leave were not explicit, and that didn't stop us voting on it.

    But, I would hope, that 2016 serves a lesson to all of us. If you're going to have referendum, make sure it is explicit what is going to happen.
    Verily. It was a terrible error by Cameron. He should have got both sides to elaborate, beforehand

    And I speak as a Leave voter who still believes Leave was the correct vote. My alleged correctitude doesn't matter, referendums only work with a highly informed electorate

    The same, of course, applies to the Scotch indyref of 2014. Everyone was voting blind. "Oh yeah vote YES we'll still be in the EU and using the pound, probably, who cares, whatevs, just vote YES"

    Absolutely irresponsible. Never again, either way, or for any subject
    Agreed. Also let's not have any future referendums that make constitutional (including Rejoin if that ever comes to pass) without requiring 50% of the electorate to have voted for it.
    Yup

    The Aussies are right to have this 50% plus four (of six) states rule. Really big constitutional changes need MASSIVE majority support, or they cause bitter division for a loooooooong time
    I think it's more that the government has to have a view. They have to have a plan to put to the voters in a referendum.
    They don't.

    Should we join the EU yes or no?

    If yes it mandates UKG to negotiate the best entry terms they can get.

    Same as before but reversed. Nothing impossible about that.
    So they can accept utter capitulation to the EU on whatever the EU requires?

    Getting approval to that from the voters of the UK would be impossible.

    EU actors would not be silent prior to any campaign. Things like the euro would be front and centre. As would Schengen.
    As it should be. Not everyone sees it as a bad thing.
    Oh I think it’s entirely legitimate, an argument I understand, and honest.

    I think two states are credible for the U.K. relationship with the EU:

    a) Brexit and a relationship from without; or

    b) Get stuck in and he’ll lead the bloody thing, shaping all parts of it.

    In the end I chose a but I understand b. The “half out” model we had was a nonsense.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,725
    darkage said:

    It certainly feels like the Israel / Palestine issue has evolved in to a 'two sides' conflict now. Whatever support Israel had after last week it is now losing.

    I don't feel that at all. Random attacks on European civilians by Islamist nutters - and much else - make everything unclear

    My friendship group (FWIW - and not a lot, as it is so self selecting) has shifted from "generally but not massively pro Palestine" to either "decidedly neutral" or "pro Israel"

    If there is any consensus it is: make this absurd issue fuck off and die, forever, whatever happens and whoever wins
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,580
    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    It certainly feels like the Israel / Palestine issue has evolved in to a 'two sides' conflict now. Whatever support Israel had after last week it is now losing.

    I don't feel that at all. Random attacks on European civilians by Islamist nutters - and much else - make everything unclear

    My friendship group (FWIW - and not a lot, as it is so self selecting) has shifted from "generally but not massively pro Palestine" to either "decidedly neutral" or "pro Israel"

    If there is any consensus it is: make this absurd issue fuck off and die, forever, whatever happens and whoever wins
    Alas on the last point they are going to be bitterly disappointed.

    Whatever the carnage in next few months it will not go away.
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,803
    HYUFD said:

    Another bad day for Sunak...

    Jack Surfleet
    @jacksurfleet

    Tuesday's DAILY MAIL: Violent prisoners to be let out early
    #tomorrowspaperstoday

    Actually says "by a tory government" underneath.

    It is only those with sentences up to 4 years and then only 18 days early
    The simple story here is that the tories tried to look tough by increasing jail sentences but then didn't build any more prison spaces to deliver the policy. It is therefore a failed policy and the latest announcements will not change this.


  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    HYUFD said:

    biggles said:

    HYUFD said:

    biggles said:

    HYUFD said:

    biggles said:

    HYUFD said:

    carnforth said:

    Omnisis:



    Rejoin is < 30% if EU insists on Euro membership. Even just 45% for Lib Dems.

    Conservative voters then massively opposed, Labour voters split down the middle, only a plurality of LDs would indeed back rejoining the EU with the Euro. However then again the Liberals have always been the most pro EU party, from Thorpe to Jenkins and Steel, to Ashdown, Kennedy, Clegg, Swinson and even Davey is still more pro realignment than Starmer and Sunak.

    LDs also don't need to care what the working class redwall voters think about them either as they will never vote Liberal anyway, posher bluewall seats are more their target
    Ah, but in this context don’t call them “Liberals”. The proper old Liberal Party was deeply sceptical. Were it still around, in numbers, it would be my party.
    The Liberal Party, even under Thorpe and before merger with the SDP, was also pro EEC.

    The Liberal Party you are talking about is just the tiny rump who refused to join the LDs
    No, I just don’t view wanting to join the common market as being (in today’s world) overly pro-EU. I suspect we can agree to ignore Steel as basically a social Democrat, and Thorpe was nudging that way. Look at the logic of their positions before then, and certainly the real Liberal Party and it’s proper grandees.


    What you are talking about is a Libertarian Party, which is a different thing and basically little different to Liz Truss
    No I’m talking about Gladstonian Liberalism, and even Lloyd-George’s social liberalism. Totally different to Truss if applied to a modern context.
    Not that different and Gladstonian Liberals are basically on the Orange Book wing of the LDs and Lloyd George Liberals on the Social Democrat wing of the LDs
    No, not really.

    Gladstonian Liberals would be orange book ish, but would have no truck with internationalism, which is core to being a LibDem.

    Lloyd-George social liberals would have that view on internationalism, and also still deeply query the core concepts of being a social Democrat, since they still view socialism as an end goal, and a true Liberal can’t be a socialist (“capital L” because obviously socialists can be “liberal” in the wider sense).
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,725
    edited October 2023
    I'll go further than that

    I get the sense the West has entirely wearied of this issue. Israel/Palestine. There are sympathies both ways, and for myriad reasons, but now the overwhelming sense is one of enervated despair to the point of nihilism. Why should Swedes in Brussels die because of what happens to a bunch of mad religious nutters in Gaza, Jaffa, the Negev desert and Jerusalem? Why should world peace be held hostage by a few ululating extremists in a tiny sandy corner of the world, for the rest of time?

    C'est tout. Let them duke it out, once and for all. If Israel wipes out Gaza, so be it. If the Arabs overrrun Israel, well, they maybe had it coming

    ENOUGH. Just get it sorted

  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,473

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    Well done to all those younger people in Poland for taking back control !

    Remarkable turnout in younger people was key to removing the PiS bigots and hate mongers .

    This is a great day for Liberal democracies who are under constant attack from the right wing who seek to peddle hate and division and try and trash democracy .

    And a warm welcome back to Donald Tusk , who should become the next PM. He was always a champion for Remainers , and was very effected by the vote . A truly lovely man.

    Tusk’s anti-immigration rhetoric during the campaign went further than Suella Braverman.

    https://x.com/donaldtusk/status/1675381156513038336
    He did what he had to do to remove the PiS .

    Tusk will always be loved by Remainers.
    I remember Remainers. Didn’t they used to be the ones in the silly blue hats? Whatever happened to them and their campaign?
    Funny that you should say that:


    Misleading if terms of rejoin are not explicit.
    I was going to make a snarky comment about how the terms of Leave were not explicit, and that didn't stop us voting on it.

    But, I would hope, that 2016 serves a lesson to all of us. If you're going to have referendum, make sure it is explicit what is going to happen.
    Verily. It was a terrible error by Cameron. He should have got both sides to elaborate, beforehand

    And I speak as a Leave voter who still believes Leave was the correct vote. My alleged correctitude doesn't matter, referendums only work with a highly informed electorate

    The same, of course, applies to the Scotch indyref of 2014. Everyone was voting blind. "Oh yeah vote YES we'll still be in the EU and using the pound, probably, who cares, whatevs, just vote YES"

    Absolutely irresponsible. Never again, either way, or for any subject
    Agreed. Also let's not have any future referendums that make constitutional (including Rejoin if that ever comes to pass) without requiring 50% of the electorate to have voted for it.
    Yup

    The Aussies are right to have this 50% plus four (of six) states rule. Really big constitutional changes need MASSIVE majority support, or they cause bitter division for a loooooooong time
    I think it's more that the government has to have a view. They have to have a plan to put to the voters in a referendum.
    They don't.

    Should we join the EU yes or no?

    If yes it mandates UKG to negotiate the best entry terms they can get.

    Same as before but reversed. Nothing impossible about that.
    So they can accept utter capitulation to the EU on whatever the EU requires?

    Getting approval to that from the voters of the UK would be impossible.
    It's just as before. We voted Leave and tasked our govt with negotiating the terms. No difference here. We vote Join and task our govt with negotiating the terms. And if it does happen it is likely to happen like this. The notion of agreeing the deal first sounds sensible but in practice it's a no no. It takes a great deal of time and effort to negotiate the deal. Neither side will be up for going through all that unless they know it's going to be implemented.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,139
    darkage said:

    HYUFD said:

    Another bad day for Sunak...

    Jack Surfleet
    @jacksurfleet

    Tuesday's DAILY MAIL: Violent prisoners to be let out early
    #tomorrowspaperstoday

    Actually says "by a tory government" underneath.

    It is only those with sentences up to 4 years and then only 18 days early
    The simple story here is that the tories tried to look tough by increasing jail sentences but then didn't build any more prison spaces to deliver the policy. It is therefore a failed policy and the latest announcements will not change this.


    When Labour are planning to be tougher on crime than the Tories you know something odd is going on. Starmer is promising to build more prisons IIRC.
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,638
    darkage said:

    HYUFD said:

    Another bad day for Sunak...

    Jack Surfleet
    @jacksurfleet

    Tuesday's DAILY MAIL: Violent prisoners to be let out early
    #tomorrowspaperstoday

    Actually says "by a tory government" underneath.

    It is only those with sentences up to 4 years and then only 18 days early
    The simple story here is that the tories tried to look tough by increasing jail sentences but then didn't build any more prison spaces to deliver the policy. It is therefore a failed policy and the latest announcements will not change this.


    It could be much worse. Just imagine how short of prison places we'd be if the police and the CPS had the resources to catch and prosecute, respectively, the perpetrators of all the unsolved serious crime out there. Another policy failure.
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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,639
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Irish President says that Von der Leyen’s support for Israel is “thoughtless and reckless”.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2023/10/16/von-der-leyens-approach-to-israel-hamas-conflict-thoughtless-and-reckless-higgins/

    And republicans say Higgins is beloved by everyone and never says anything controversial!

    Our monarchs never interfere in politics or foreign policy as blatantly as that
    Well quite. Higgins is Ireland's elected president. Von der Leyen is their monarch.
    She is the EU President elected by the EU Parliament
    The EU parliament was never going to stand in the way of whoever the European Council eventually put before them, or rather whoever France and Germany agreed between them. By contrast the Irish president was elected by universal suffrage.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,160
    edited October 2023

    carnforth said:

    Omnisis:



    Rejoin is < 30% if EU insists on Euro membership. Even just 45% for Lib Dems.

    The only way the UK ever goes back into the "EU" is if there is a non-Euro outer tier.

    The arrogant idiots of Brussels COULD have engaged with Cameron on this concept. It would have been enough for Brexit to have failed.
    All together now...allegedly Jean-Claude Junker offered David Cameron associate membership and Cameron turned it down

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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,100
    darkage said:

    It certainly feels like the Israel / Palestine issue has evolved in to a 'two sides' conflict now. Whatever support Israel had after last week it is now losing.

    I think western leaders are now regretting such un-equivocal support for Israel’s military plans and are realizing the whole thing could just explode . It’s hard to believe it could get any worse !

    I’m glad at least the USA is now questioning what comes next.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,139
    edited October 2023
    This explains to a large extent why the ruling party in Poland has probably lost power.

    "The historic voter turnout of 72.9 per cent underscored the importance of this election to Poles. If the exit poll is correct, this is the largest turnout since communism fell, surpassing even the 62.7 per cent turnout in the first free elections of 1989. The number of Poles registered to vote abroad more than doubled since the last election, exceeding 600,000 overall, with over 160,000 registered to vote in the UK alone. Much of this record turnout is likely due to opposition campaign messaging, which focused heavily on the slogan that this election was a last stand for Polish democracy, for the rights of Polish women, and for a close relationship with the European Union."

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/polands-rejection-of-conservatism-isnt-quite-as-it-seems/
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    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,803
    Andy_JS said:

    darkage said:

    It certainly feels like the Israel / Palestine issue has evolved in to a 'two sides' conflict now. Whatever support Israel had after last week it is now losing.

    Based on?
    I am working in a public sector office and was waiting to hear what the management had to say about this conflict. It was along the lines of 'all hate is bad. on all sides. stop hate"
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,473
    edited October 2023

    carnforth said:

    Omnisis:



    Rejoin is < 30% if EU insists on Euro membership. Even just 45% for Lib Dems.

    The only way the UK ever goes back into the "EU" is if there is a non-Euro outer tier.

    The arrogant idiots of Brussels COULD have engaged with Cameron on this concept. It would have been enough for Brexit to have failed.
    Rejoin is an utter fantasy whilst joining the euro is non-negotiable.

    Hell, I would vote 'no' in those circumstances.
    The Euro isn't non-negotiable though. Or rather we don't know whether it would be or it wouldn't be. It all depends on what we want vs what they want, and how much we want to join vs how much they want us to. Plus the other circumstances at the time.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,370
    kinabalu said:

    carnforth said:

    Omnisis:



    Rejoin is < 30% if EU insists on Euro membership. Even just 45% for Lib Dems.

    The only way the UK ever goes back into the "EU" is if there is a non-Euro outer tier.

    The arrogant idiots of Brussels COULD have engaged with Cameron on this concept. It would have been enough for Brexit to have failed.
    Rejoin is an utter fantasy whilst joining the euro is non-negotiable.

    Hell, I would vote 'no' in those circumstances.
    The Euro isn't non-negotiable though. Or rather we don't know whether it would be or it wouldn't be. It all depends on what we want vs what they want, and how much we want to join vs how much they want us to. Plus the other circumstances at the time.
    Sounds like these folk who want to join the EU want to… cherry pick.

    They should speak to the Remainers we had after the vote. They were clear that was not possible.
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    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,803
    edited October 2023
    nico679 said:

    darkage said:

    It certainly feels like the Israel / Palestine issue has evolved in to a 'two sides' conflict now. Whatever support Israel had after last week it is now losing.

    I think western leaders are now regretting such un-equivocal support for Israel’s military plans and are realizing the whole thing could just explode . It’s hard to believe it could get any worse !

    I’m glad at least the USA is now questioning what comes next.
    I think the realisation was that they cannot lead public opinion, a lot of public opinion leans towards Palestine and is quite deeply felt. In this respect things are different to how they were even 10 years ago.
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    Leon said:

    I'll go further than that

    I get the sense the West has entirely wearied of this issue. Israel/Palestine. There are sympathies both ways, and for myriad reasons, but now the overwhelming sense is one of enervated despair to the point of nihilism. Why should Swedes in Brussels die because of what happens to a bunch of mad religious nutters in Gaza, Jaffa, the Negev desert and Jerusalem? Why should world peace be held hostage by a few ululating extremists in a tiny sandy corner of the world, for the rest of time?

    C'est tout. Let them duke it out, once and for all. If Israel wipes out Gaza, so be it. If the Arabs overrrun Israel, well, they maybe had it coming

    ENOUGH. Just get it sorted

    You mean it's one set of willy-mutilators versus another?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,580
    kinabalu said:

    carnforth said:

    Omnisis:



    Rejoin is < 30% if EU insists on Euro membership. Even just 45% for Lib Dems.

    The only way the UK ever goes back into the "EU" is if there is a non-Euro outer tier.

    The arrogant idiots of Brussels COULD have engaged with Cameron on this concept. It would have been enough for Brexit to have failed.
    Rejoin is an utter fantasy whilst joining the euro is non-negotiable.

    Hell, I would vote 'no' in those circumstances.
    The Euro isn't non-negotiable though. Or rather we don't know whether it would be or it wouldn't be. It all depends on what we want vs what they want, and how much we want to join vs how much they want us to. Plus the other circumstances at the time.
    It's in the Maastricht Treaty.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,580
    Leon said:

    I'll go further than that

    I get the sense the West has entirely wearied of this issue. Israel/Palestine. There are sympathies both ways, and for myriad reasons, but now the overwhelming sense is one of enervated despair to the point of nihilism. Why should Swedes in Brussels die because of what happens to a bunch of mad religious nutters in Gaza, Jaffa, the Negev desert and Jerusalem? Why should world peace be held hostage by a few ululating extremists in a tiny sandy corner of the world, for the rest of time?

    C'est tout. Let them duke it out, once and for all. If Israel wipes out Gaza, so be it. If the Arabs overrrun Israel, well, they maybe had it coming

    ENOUGH. Just get it sorted

    Can't think why you became a flint knapper and not a diplomat.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,100
    Andy_JS said:

    This explains to a large extent why the ruling party in Poland has probably lost power.

    "The historic voter turnout of 72.9 per cent underscored the importance of this election to Poles. If the exit poll is correct, this is the largest turnout since communism fell, surpassing even the 62.7 per cent turnout in the first free elections of 1989. The number of Poles registered to vote abroad more than doubled since the last election, exceeding 600,000 overall, with over 160,000 registered to vote in the UK alone. Much of this record turnout is likely due to opposition campaign messaging, which focused heavily on the slogan that this election was a last stand for Polish democracy, for the rights of Polish women, and for a close relationship with the European Union."

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/polands-rejection-of-conservatism-isnt-quite-as-it-seems/

    It was indeed the last stand given the PiS was busy dismantling the neutrality of government agencies , the judiciary were effectively removed for issuing decisions they didn’t like . It really wasn’t in any way hyperbole by the opposition. Sadly it looks like the ship has sailed for Hungary who really if it was possible should be thrown out of the EU. They were happy to take the funds but weren’t happy to take the democratic responsibilities that go with EU membership as in the rule of law and an independent judiciary.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,580
    The Spectator Index
    @spectatorindex
    ·
    30m
    BREAKING: Iran's foreign minister says 'if we do not defend Gaza today, tomorrow we will have to defend against bombs in our own cities'.


    Brace...
  • Options

    New thread

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,219
    Andy_JS said:

    darkage said:

    HYUFD said:

    Another bad day for Sunak...

    Jack Surfleet
    @jacksurfleet

    Tuesday's DAILY MAIL: Violent prisoners to be let out early
    #tomorrowspaperstoday

    Actually says "by a tory government" underneath.

    It is only those with sentences up to 4 years and then only 18 days early
    The simple story here is that the tories tried to look tough by increasing jail sentences but then didn't build any more prison spaces to deliver the policy. It is therefore a failed policy and the latest announcements will not change this.


    When Labour are planning to be tougher on crime than the Tories you know something odd is going on. Starmer is promising to build more prisons IIRC.
    Which still doesn't deal with the issue of trying to stop minor offenders reoffending when they come out of jail.

    Jail should be reserved for the most serious and dangerous offenders otherwise for some minor offenders they just lose their jobs, find it hard to get new jobs and fall into a life of crime instead
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,551
    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    It certainly feels like the Israel / Palestine issue has evolved in to a 'two sides' conflict now. Whatever support Israel had after last week it is now losing.

    I don't feel that at all. Random attacks on European civilians by Islamist nutters - and much else - make everything unclear

    My friendship group (FWIW - and not a lot, as it is so self selecting) has shifted from "generally but not massively pro Palestine" to either "decidedly neutral" or "pro Israel"

    If there is any consensus it is: make this absurd issue fuck off and die, forever, whatever happens and whoever wins
    Yes: we, in the west, very rarely get randomly killed by Jewish nutters. Whereas we get randomly killed quite a lot by Islamist nutters. People notice patterns like that, even if the polite news channels tends to dance around the matter a bit. That tends to sway the undecideds a bit.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    darkage said:

    It certainly feels like the Israel / Palestine issue has evolved in to a 'two sides' conflict now. Whatever support Israel had after last week it is now losing.

    It shouldn't be like a football game where we feel we have to cheer one side on. We should be against murdering civilians. Israeli civilians, Palestinian civilians, doesn't matter. Hamas's pogrom was a disgusting atrocity. Can it be justified by grievances? No. Does it justify mass slaughter in return? Also not. Simple as that.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,219
    biggles said:

    HYUFD said:

    biggles said:

    HYUFD said:

    biggles said:

    HYUFD said:

    biggles said:

    HYUFD said:

    carnforth said:

    Omnisis:



    Rejoin is < 30% if EU insists on Euro membership. Even just 45% for Lib Dems.

    Conservative voters then massively opposed, Labour voters split down the middle, only a plurality of LDs would indeed back rejoining the EU with the Euro. However then again the Liberals have always been the most pro EU party, from Thorpe to Jenkins and Steel, to Ashdown, Kennedy, Clegg, Swinson and even Davey is still more pro realignment than Starmer and Sunak.

    LDs also don't need to care what the working class redwall voters think about them either as they will never vote Liberal anyway, posher bluewall seats are more their target
    Ah, but in this context don’t call them “Liberals”. The proper old Liberal Party was deeply sceptical. Were it still around, in numbers, it would be my party.
    The Liberal Party, even under Thorpe and before merger with the SDP, was also pro EEC.

    The Liberal Party you are talking about is just the tiny rump who refused to join the LDs
    No, I just don’t view wanting to join the common market as being (in today’s world) overly pro-EU. I suspect we can agree to ignore Steel as basically a social Democrat, and Thorpe was nudging that way. Look at the logic of their positions before then, and certainly the real Liberal Party and it’s proper grandees.


    What you are talking about is a Libertarian Party, which is a different thing and basically little different to Liz Truss
    No I’m talking about Gladstonian Liberalism, and even Lloyd-George’s social liberalism. Totally different to Truss if applied to a modern context.
    Not that different and Gladstonian Liberals are basically on the Orange Book wing of the LDs and Lloyd George Liberals on the Social Democrat wing of the LDs
    No, not really.

    Gladstonian Liberals would be orange book ish, but would have no truck with internationalism, which is core to being a LibDem.

    Lloyd-George social liberals would have that view on internationalism, and also still deeply query the core concepts of being a social Democrat, since they still view socialism as an end goal, and a true Liberal can’t be a socialist (“capital L” because obviously socialists can be “liberal” in the wider sense).
    Yes really. Gladstone was very internationalist and pro intervention to quell human rights abuses abroad and home rule at home.

    Lloyd George social democrats are also not socialists otherwise they would be in Labour
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,219
    edited October 2023
    nico679 said:

    darkage said:

    It certainly feels like the Israel / Palestine issue has evolved in to a 'two sides' conflict now. Whatever support Israel had after last week it is now losing.

    I think western leaders are now regretting such un-equivocal support for Israel’s military plans and are realizing the whole thing could just explode . It’s hard to believe it could get any worse !

    I’m glad at least the USA is now questioning what comes next.
    It isn't, as I already posted '65 percent of Americans say the government should publicly support Israel. About 23 percent said the U.S. should say or do nothing related to the conflict, and 8 percent say the U.S. should publicly criticize Israel.'

    Over a third of Republican voters even say the response of the Israeli military has not been strong enough!

    https://thehill.com/policy/international/4255413-most-americans-us-government-support-israel/
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    Cyclefree said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    dixiedean said:

    Yes the Tories may get more seats with Mordaunt as leader.
    The issue is they wouldn't get her as leader.

    Why on earth does anyone still rate her after her ludicrous and vacuous speech during the party conference? It was an embarrassment.
    She carried a sword. She doesn't represent the Badenoch or Braverman wings.
    Ah, so she represents the Empty Headed Wing and is the one the male members would like to f***. If only they could.

    I see it now.
    That line is beneath you - and it is one you have said the likes of before. Saying the *only* reason someone could have support is because of her attractiveness says more about you than her, or them.

    I actually rate her, but don't fancy her. Now, if I was to go solely on attractiveness I'd be firmly on team Rayner (*), but I think she's not particularly good, the 'scum' comment being an example.

    I'd rather have Mordaunt than Rayner as PM. But preferably neither.

    (*) I lived with a lovely redhead for four years.
    I could collect all the comments on here from the male members of this forum that show precisely that it was her attractiveness which interested them in her. It was embarrassing seeing it. But not at all unexpected. Though quite interesting seeing how many different ways of saying "phwoar - I fancy her" men could come up with.

    (Snip).
    Please do collect them, and compare them about comments made about other politicians.

    If you think she has 'vacuity of thinking', by all means attack that. Discounting her because you think her only appeal is that men find her attractive is not a valid or attractive argument, and one that says more about you than her.
    Sorry, but Cyclefree is right on this.
    You can argue she’s wrong to generalise in that manner, but it’s not as though there wasn’t plenty of evidence to generalise from.
    What @JosiasJessop does not get - or chooses not to - is that I am criticising the men who think that quite as much as Mordaunt.

    It is quite notable that her main attraction for many on here is her attractiveness not her achievements or thoughts.
    There is a rather old story about a millionaire with three secretaries. He decides to marry one but cannot chose which so he gives them each £1 million to see what they do with it.

    One spends the million on herself
    One spends her million on him
    The last one invests her million, makes another million and give him his million back.

    So.... which one did he marry?

    |
    |
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    |
    |
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    |
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    V

    The one with the biggest b00bs!! :D
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    isamisam Posts: 41,061
    How I can it be that Boris was both hugely unpopular in Dec 2019 AND had lost his sheen by the time he resigned?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,220
    Cyclefree said:

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    dixiedean said:

    Yes the Tories may get more seats with Mordaunt as leader.
    The issue is they wouldn't get her as leader.

    Why on earth does anyone still rate her after her ludicrous and vacuous speech during the party conference? It was an embarrassment.
    She carried a sword. She doesn't represent the Badenoch or Braverman wings.
    Ah, so she represents the Empty Headed Wing and is the one the male members would like to f***. If only they could.

    I see it now.
    That line is beneath you - and it is one you have said the likes of before. Saying the *only* reason someone could have support is because of her attractiveness says more about you than her, or them.

    I actually rate her, but don't fancy her. Now, if I was to go solely on attractiveness I'd be firmly on team Rayner (*), but I think she's not particularly good, the 'scum' comment being an example.

    I'd rather have Mordaunt than Rayner as PM. But preferably neither.

    (*) I lived with a lovely redhead for four years.
    I could collect all the comments on here from the male members of this forum that show precisely that it was her attractiveness which interested them in her. It was embarrassing seeing it. But not at all unexpected. Though quite interesting seeing how many different ways of saying "phwoar - I fancy her" men could come up with.

    (Snip).
    Please do collect them, and compare them about comments made about other politicians.

    If you think she has 'vacuity of thinking', by all means attack that. Discounting her because you think her only appeal is that men find her attractive is not a valid or attractive argument, and one that says more about you than her.
    Sorry, but Cyclefree is right on this.
    You can argue she’s wrong to generalise in that manner, but it’s not as though there wasn’t plenty of evidence to generalise from.
    What @JosiasJessop does not get - or chooses not to - is that I am criticising the men who think that quite as much as Mordaunt.

    It is quite notable that her main attraction for many on here is her attractiveness not her achievements or thoughts.
    Pull the other one. You're trying to diminish *her* by saying that.

    It may be true for *many* (evidence, please); but that does not mean that it should be used as a weapon against *her*.
This discussion has been closed.