But which different leader? It's all very well speculating about Penny Morduant, and were there a vacancy she may well win. But then again, she may not. It could be a nutcase or chancer or ideological zealot. But I repeat myself.
Tory MPs have no idea what number is going to come up if they roll the leadership dice and dumping Sunak will only help if his replacement can clearly do a better job. Firstly, can someone do a better job of both articulating an attractive vision and running a government, and secondly, if there is such a person (or such people) what are their chances of winning and what are the risks if they don't?
I think that barring an almighty screw-up over a particular issue, Sunak is there for the duration now. It's just too disruptive and too risky for too little return to change leader yet again - particularly when running a leadership contest is, of itself, likely to hit Tory polling merely for the navel-gazing.
The problem is not the leader; the problem is the party.
It's time.
Her time.
Phwoar
David Byrne called. He wants his trousers back.... and also asked "What the absolute f**k????!!!!!"
The signs were there, Richard, right in front of our eyes.
Rishi Sunak has whatever the opposite of 'electoral magic' is but the Cons have to stick with him into the GE. If they changed PM again people would start to view them as a joke rather than a serious political party.
So far the downwards trajectory of Sunak's net approval matches the scenario I sketched out in my thread header a few weeks back and suggests that Labour remains on course to win a majority. I agree with you that replacing him is not really an option for the Tories. Sad!
You're more cautious than me, I think, in that I'm expecting a chunky majority. Although I'm trying to keep a lid on this because I don't want to get to election morning-after and find myself feeling a bit pissed off about Labour winning with *only* a small majority. Labour GE wins of any kind are not exactly littered through history let's face it.
But which different leader? It's all very well speculating about Penny Morduant, and were there a vacancy she may well win. But then again, she may not. It could be a nutcase or chancer or ideological zealot. But I repeat myself.
Tory MPs have no idea what number is going to come up if they roll the leadership dice and dumping Sunak will only help if his replacement can clearly do a better job. Firstly, can someone do a better job of both articulating an attractive vision and running a government, and secondly, if there is such a person (or such people) what are their chances of winning and what are the risks if they don't?
I think that barring an almighty screw-up over a particular issue, Sunak is there for the duration now. It's just too disruptive and too risky for too little return to change leader yet again - particularly when running a leadership contest is, of itself, likely to hit Tory polling merely for the navel-gazing.
The problem is not the leader; the problem is the party.
No more leadership changes. Time to crack on with the election now! Budget March 2024 then GE May 2024 aligned with local elections. Let's not drag it out any further!
I don't believe a PM will call an election when double-digits behind in the polls if they can credibly go longer.
The Budget won't change anything. A steady-as-she-goes one will make no impact; a radical tax-cutting one might unsettle the markets and even if it doesn't, will completely cut across everything Sunak's been saying since the 2022 leadership elections and will be so transparently cynical that it won't work (and Sunak will not be able to defend it in interviews because he's commendably rubbish at lying).
Also, calling an election in March will be right off the back of a really serious NHS winter, which will have been all over the media.
Fair enough but hanging on to Oct 2024 could be seen as desperate.
And Jan 2025 as really really desperate!
Although I still think October is more likely, I do agree May is very much the value bet at 5-1.
The Budget, even though it can't be an immediate giveaway, could set a programme of tax cuts over several years with some rabbits out of the hat on IHT etc. It's a decent set-piece to go into an election on "this is all only possible if you give Rishi a mandate..."
Furthermore, the May local elections are likely to be really bad, partly because the Tories have a high base from 2021 (about half of which were deferred from 2020 due to COVID). The news today suggests that, while Bone might fight the dying of the light for a while, there's a by-election coming in Wellingborough, and there may always be more to cause a nuisance.
As you say, the longer it goes on, the more the cries of "chicken" grow louder.
The obvious thing against that is a large Labour poll lead. But Theresa May knows polling leads can be a bit deceptive, and it wouldn't surprise me if Sunak got a bit of credit for going in the Spring despite the polling position, and found himself with at least a little momentum.
Mid-Nov seems most likely to me - that gives Sunak the chance to call it from, or immediately after, the Tory party conference, using the early Sept session for wash-up of anything still outstanding (which isn't likely to be much anyway). Conference makes for as decent a launch-pad as they could hope for, while also potentially messing up Labour's, if it comes last again like this year's (does it?). And it gives a summer's break beforehand where political things are less likely to go wrong.
The only issue with that is that TV screens will be full of Trump v Biden.
Rishi Sunak has whatever the opposite of 'electoral magic' is but the Cons have to stick with him into the GE. If they changed PM again people would start to view them as a joke rather than a serious political party.
So far the downwards trajectory of Sunak's net approval matches the scenario I sketched out in my thread header a few weeks back and suggests that Labour remains on course to win a majority. I agree with you that replacing him is not really an option for the Tories. Sad!
You're more cautious than me, I think, in that I'm expecting a chunky majority. Although I'm trying to keep a lid on this because I don't want to get to election morning-after and find myself feeling a bit pissed off about Labour winning with *only* a small majority. Labour GE wins of any kind are not exactly littered through history let's face it.
My preferred outcome would be a tory majority of exactly 1. That would mean the little shit would have to soldier on in scenes of total chaos as he would be beholden to the lunatic whims of every single tory backbencher. He is already given to impulsivity and rank cowardice with a 70 or whatever seat majority so watching him try and spectacularly fail to manage a razor thin one would be wonderful.
It's not just Sunak's falling ratings, Starmer has clearly had a boost from last week's Labour conference. It's notable that his lead over Sunak is wider than the Labour lead over the Tories in today's Deltapoll, even though the Labour lead is 20 points.
If you want to get a sense of how the Tories themselves view Sunak, look at Dowdwn and Shapps today in the Commons ...
Rishi Sunak has whatever the opposite of 'electoral magic' is but the Cons have to stick with him into the GE. If they changed PM again people would start to view them as a joke rather than a serious political party.
So far the downwards trajectory of Sunak's net approval matches the scenario I sketched out in my thread header a few weeks back and suggests that Labour remains on course to win a majority. I agree with you that replacing him is not really an option for the Tories. Sad!
You're more cautious than me, I think, in that I'm expecting a chunky majority. Although I'm trying to keep a lid on this because I don't want to get to election morning-after and find myself feeling a bit pissed off about Labour winning with *only* a small majority. Labour GE wins of any kind are not exactly littered through history let's face it.
My preferred outcome would be a tory majority of exactly 1. That would mean the little shit would have to soldier on in scenes of total chaos as he would be beholden to the lunatic whims of every single tory backbencher. He is already given to impulsivity and rank cowardice with a 70 or whatever seat majority so watching him try and spectacularly fail to manage a razor thin one would be wonderful.
Rishi Sunak has whatever the opposite of 'electoral magic' is but the Cons have to stick with him into the GE. If they changed PM again people would start to view them as a joke rather than a serious political party.
So far the downwards trajectory of Sunak's net approval matches the scenario I sketched out in my thread header a few weeks back and suggests that Labour remains on course to win a majority. I agree with you that replacing him is not really an option for the Tories. Sad!
You're more cautious than me, I think, in that I'm expecting a chunky majority. Although I'm trying to keep a lid on this because I don't want to get to election morning-after and find myself feeling a bit pissed off about Labour winning with *only* a small majority. Labour GE wins of any kind are not exactly littered through history let's face it.
My preferred outcome would be a tory majority of exactly 1. That would mean the little shit would have to soldier on in scenes of total chaos as he would be beholden to the lunatic whims of every single tory backbencher. He is already given to impulsivity and rank cowardice with a 70 or whatever seat majority so watching him try and spectacularly fail to manage a razor thin one would be wonderful.
Rishi Sunak has whatever the opposite of 'electoral magic' is but the Cons have to stick with him into the GE. If they changed PM again people would start to view them as a joke rather than a serious political party.
So far the downwards trajectory of Sunak's net approval matches the scenario I sketched out in my thread header a few weeks back and suggests that Labour remains on course to win a majority. I agree with you that replacing him is not really an option for the Tories. Sad!
You're more cautious than me, I think, in that I'm expecting a chunky majority. Although I'm trying to keep a lid on this because I don't want to get to election morning-after and find myself feeling a bit pissed off about Labour winning with *only* a small majority. Labour GE wins of any kind are not exactly littered through history let's face it.
My preferred outcome would be a tory majority of exactly 1. That would mean the little shit would have to soldier on in scenes of total chaos as he would be beholden to the lunatic whims of every single tory backbencher. He is already given to impulsivity and rank cowardice with a 70 or whatever seat majority so watching him try and spectacularly fail to manage a razor thin one would be wonderful.
Rishi Sunak has whatever the opposite of 'electoral magic' is but the Cons have to stick with him into the GE. If they changed PM again people would start to view them as a joke rather than a serious political party.
So far the downwards trajectory of Sunak's net approval matches the scenario I sketched out in my thread header a few weeks back and suggests that Labour remains on course to win a majority. I agree with you that replacing him is not really an option for the Tories. Sad!
You're more cautious than me, I think, in that I'm expecting a chunky majority. Although I'm trying to keep a lid on this because I don't want to get to election morning-after and find myself feeling a bit pissed off about Labour winning with *only* a small majority. Labour GE wins of any kind are not exactly littered through history let's face it.
My preferred outcome would be a tory majority of exactly 1. That would mean the little shit would have to soldier on in scenes of total chaos as he would be beholden to the lunatic whims of every single tory backbencher. He is already given to impulsivity and rank cowardice with a 70 or whatever seat majority so watching him try and spectacularly fail to manage a razor thin one would be wonderful.
Majority would have to be an even number, surely?
If there are say 5 or 7 SF MPs who are unlikely to take their seats, an 'odd' effective majority is possible!
Donald Trump is preparing to give evidence at the High Court in London to deny hiring prostitutes, holding sex parties and bribing Russian officials.
The former president of the United States is using data protection laws to sue a London-based intelligence consultancy founded by a former MI6 agent who produced a dossier of alleged Russian interference in the 2016 election.
Hugh Tomlinson KC, Trump’s lawyer, told the court that his client “brings this case because he seeks vindication of his legal rights”.
Trump wants to prove that the “shocking and scandalous claims about [his] personal conduct” are false and “intends to discharge that burden by giving evidence in this court”, he added.
Christopher Steele, 59, who ran the Secret Intelligence Service’s Russia desk before co-founding Orbis Business Intelligence, was in court for the preliminary hearing.
Sunak is proving very poor as leader, having bizarrely and unnecessarily trashed his own brand, but switching would be even worse. It's not as though there's a David Cameron waiting in the wings with lots of support in the party and amongst MPs. Even if they had a less bad candidate than Sunak, they wouldn't unite around him or her.
As for Penny Mordaunt, let's not forget just how abysmal she was when she did stand in the leadership contest. Admittedly Liz Truss was even worse, and that didn't seem to be a barrier to her becoming leader, but in terms of improving their electoral chances, the party would be mad to even think about it.
They are done up like a kipper, as it were.
What do you think he did specifically to trash his brand? I tend to be in agreement, but am interested in other people's takes.
- Appointing Suella Braverman as Home Sec - Continuing with the Rwanda nonsense - Compounding this by campaigning on 'Stop the Boats' when he hasn't and won't - Cancelling (if he actually has!) a huge infrastructure project in an announcement which seems to have been put together on the back of a fag packet in a hotel room in Manchester and which fell apart within 24 hours - Totally mishandling the Net Zero issue, where the decisions may have been rational but the presentation made them look arbitrary and irrational - Announcing plans for education which are clearly not thought out and which will never happen
He was meant to bring stability and properly-considered policy making. Instead the chaos has continued.
Donald Trump is preparing to give evidence at the High Court in London to deny hiring prostitutes, holding sex parties and bribing Russian officials.
The former president of the United States is using data protection laws to sue a London-based intelligence consultancy founded by a former MI6 agent who produced a dossier of alleged Russian interference in the 2016 election.
Hugh Tomlinson KC, Trump’s lawyer, told the court that his client “brings this case because he seeks vindication of his legal rights”.
Trump wants to prove that the “shocking and scandalous claims about [his] personal conduct” are false and “intends to discharge that burden by giving evidence in this court”, he added.
Christopher Steele, 59, who ran the Secret Intelligence Service’s Russia desk before co-founding Orbis Business Intelligence, was in court for the preliminary hearing.
But which different leader? It's all very well speculating about Penny Morduant, and were there a vacancy she may well win. But then again, she may not. It could be a nutcase or chancer or ideological zealot. But I repeat myself.
Tory MPs have no idea what number is going to come up if they roll the leadership dice and dumping Sunak will only help if his replacement can clearly do a better job. Firstly, can someone do a better job of both articulating an attractive vision and running a government, and secondly, if there is such a person (or such people) what are their chances of winning and what are the risks if they don't?
I think that barring an almighty screw-up over a particular issue, Sunak is there for the duration now. It's just too disruptive and too risky for too little return to change leader yet again - particularly when running a leadership contest is, of itself, likely to hit Tory polling merely for the navel-gazing.
The problem is not the leader; the problem is the party.
No more leadership changes. Time to crack on with the election now! Budget March 2024 then GE May 2024 aligned with local elections. Let's not drag it out any further!
I don't believe a PM will call an election when double-digits behind in the polls if they can credibly go longer.
The Budget won't change anything. A steady-as-she-goes one will make no impact; a radical tax-cutting one might unsettle the markets and even if it doesn't, will completely cut across everything Sunak's been saying since the 2022 leadership elections and will be so transparently cynical that it won't work (and Sunak will not be able to defend it in interviews because he's commendably rubbish at lying).
Also, calling an election in March will be right off the back of a really serious NHS winter, which will have been all over the media.
Fair enough but hanging on to Oct 2024 could be seen as desperate.
And Jan 2025 as really really desperate!
Although I still think October is more likely, I do agree May is very much the value bet at 5-1.
The Budget, even though it can't be an immediate giveaway, could set a programme of tax cuts over several years with some rabbits out of the hat on IHT etc. It's a decent set-piece to go into an election on "this is all only possible if you give Rishi a mandate..."
Furthermore, the May local elections are likely to be really bad, partly because the Tories have a high base from 2021 (about half of which were deferred from 2020 due to COVID). The news today suggests that, while Bone might fight the dying of the light for a while, there's a by-election coming in Wellingborough, and there may always be more to cause a nuisance.
As you say, the longer it goes on, the more the cries of "chicken" grow louder.
The obvious thing against that is a large Labour poll lead. But Theresa May knows polling leads can be a bit deceptive, and it wouldn't surprise me if Sunak got a bit of credit for going in the Spring despite the polling position, and found himself with at least a little momentum.
Mid-Nov seems most likely to me - that gives Sunak the chance to call it from, or immediately after, the Tory party conference, using the early Sept session for wash-up of anything still outstanding (which isn't likely to be much anyway). Conference makes for as decent a launch-pad as they could hope for, while also potentially messing up Labour's, if it comes last again like this year's (does it?). And it gives a summer's break beforehand where political things are less likely to go wrong.
The only issue with that is that TV screens will be full of Trump v Biden.
I think even the British media's obsession with US politics might be overshadowed there for once. Anyway, that could work both ways for the Tories (though not at once!).
Rishi Sunak has whatever the opposite of 'electoral magic' is but the Cons have to stick with him into the GE. If they changed PM again people would start to view them as a joke rather than a serious political party.
So far the downwards trajectory of Sunak's net approval matches the scenario I sketched out in my thread header a few weeks back and suggests that Labour remains on course to win a majority. I agree with you that replacing him is not really an option for the Tories. Sad!
You're more cautious than me, I think, in that I'm expecting a chunky majority. Although I'm trying to keep a lid on this because I don't want to get to election morning-after and find myself feeling a bit pissed off about Labour winning with *only* a small majority. Labour GE wins of any kind are not exactly littered through history let's face it.
My preferred outcome would be a tory majority of exactly 1. That would mean the little shit would have to soldier on in scenes of total chaos as he would be beholden to the lunatic whims of every single tory backbencher. He is already given to impulsivity and rank cowardice with a 70 or whatever seat majority so watching him try and spectacularly fail to manage a razor thin one would be wonderful.
....and that one is Peter Bone right-wing flasher extraordinaire
Sunak is proving very poor as leader, having bizarrely and unnecessarily trashed his own brand, but switching would be even worse. It's not as though there's a David Cameron waiting in the wings with lots of support in the party and amongst MPs. Even if they had a less bad candidate than Sunak, they wouldn't unite around him or her.
As for Penny Mordaunt, let's not forget just how abysmal she was when she did stand in the leadership contest. Admittedly Liz Truss was even worse, and that didn't seem to be a barrier to her becoming leader, but in terms of improving their electoral chances, the party would be mad to even think about it.
They are done up like a kipper, as it were.
What do you think he did specifically to trash his brand? I tend to be in agreement, but am interested in other people's takes.
The problem with Sunak, is that he's actually very right-wing, but 'coded' (as the kids would have it) as a more moderate, liberal Tory. Early on, I remember seeing polls stating those thinking of voting for him generally viewed him more positively than most. As the public have seen more of him, those who thought he was maybe going to represent a turn back towards the Cameron era of Tory politics, have realised that's very much not who he is. While those who might be tempted by the ersatz Clarkson stuff, aren't convinced by it coming from someone who sounds like he's doing a dull TED Talk or selling NFTs.
Rishi Sunak has whatever the opposite of 'electoral magic' is but the Cons have to stick with him into the GE. If they changed PM again people would start to view them as a joke rather than a serious political party.
So far the downwards trajectory of Sunak's net approval matches the scenario I sketched out in my thread header a few weeks back and suggests that Labour remains on course to win a majority. I agree with you that replacing him is not really an option for the Tories. Sad!
You're more cautious than me, I think, in that I'm expecting a chunky majority. Although I'm trying to keep a lid on this because I don't want to get to election morning-after and find myself feeling a bit pissed off about Labour winning with *only* a small majority. Labour GE wins of any kind are not exactly littered through history let's face it.
My preferred outcome would be a tory majority of exactly 1. That would mean the little shit would have to soldier on in scenes of total chaos as he would be beholden to the lunatic whims of every single tory backbencher. He is already given to impulsivity and rank cowardice with a 70 or whatever seat majority so watching him try and spectacularly fail to manage a razor thin one would be wonderful.
....and that one is Peter Bone right-wing flasher extraordinaire
Rishi Sunak has whatever the opposite of 'electoral magic' is but the Cons have to stick with him into the GE. If they changed PM again people would start to view them as a joke rather than a serious political party.
Start to view them.....
Ha, I know. But I think they're just on the right side of it at the moment. The people are sick of them and the people hate them, but they do still take them seriously. Or most do anyway. They are not, as we speak, a national laughing stock like Eddie the Eagle or something.
The problem they have is similar to clear out of New Labour types, Tories like Javid who are perfectly reasonable people are off at the next GE. The loony to sane ratio is going to really shift.
Yes. The parliamentary party rotted from the top - by installing BoJo - and it's fed right down. All the wrong people have been puffed up and enabled.
It's ironic really. Brexit was meant to destroy the Tories but for a while it destroyed Labour instead. Then it pulled itself together and remembered what it was meant to be doing - and destroyed the Tories.
But which different leader? It's all very well speculating about Penny Morduant, and were there a vacancy she may well win. But then again, she may not. It could be a nutcase or chancer or ideological zealot. But I repeat myself.
Tory MPs have no idea what number is going to come up if they roll the leadership dice and dumping Sunak will only help if his replacement can clearly do a better job. Firstly, can someone do a better job of both articulating an attractive vision and running a government, and secondly, if there is such a person (or such people) what are their chances of winning and what are the risks if they don't?
I think that barring an almighty screw-up over a particular issue, Sunak is there for the duration now. It's just too disruptive and too risky for too little return to change leader yet again - particularly when running a leadership contest is, of itself, likely to hit Tory polling merely for the navel-gazing.
The problem is not the leader; the problem is the party.
No more leadership changes. Time to crack on with the election now! Budget March 2024 then GE May 2024 aligned with local elections. Let's not drag it out any further!
I don't believe a PM will call an election when double-digits behind in the polls if they can credibly go longer.
The Budget won't change anything. A steady-as-she-goes one will make no impact; a radical tax-cutting one might unsettle the markets and even if it doesn't, will completely cut across everything Sunak's been saying since the 2022 leadership elections and will be so transparently cynical that it won't work (and Sunak will not be able to defend it in interviews because he's commendably rubbish at lying).
Also, calling an election in March will be right off the back of a really serious NHS winter, which will have been all over the media.
Fair enough but hanging on to Oct 2024 could be seen as desperate.
And Jan 2025 as really really desperate!
Although I still think October is more likely, I do agree May is very much the value bet at 5-1.
The Budget, even though it can't be an immediate giveaway, could set a programme of tax cuts over several years with some rabbits out of the hat on IHT etc. It's a decent set-piece to go into an election on "this is all only possible if you give Rishi a mandate..."
Furthermore, the May local elections are likely to be really bad, partly because the Tories have a high base from 2021 (about half of which were deferred from 2020 due to COVID). The news today suggests that, while Bone might fight the dying of the light for a while, there's a by-election coming in Wellingborough, and there may always be more to cause a nuisance.
As you say, the longer it goes on, the more the cries of "chicken" grow louder.
The obvious thing against that is a large Labour poll lead. But Theresa May knows polling leads can be a bit deceptive, and it wouldn't surprise me if Sunak got a bit of credit for going in the Spring despite the polling position, and found himself with at least a little momentum.
Mid-Nov seems most likely to me - that gives Sunak the chance to call it from, or immediately after, the Tory party conference, using the early Sept session for wash-up of anything still outstanding (which isn't likely to be much anyway). Conference makes for as decent a launch-pad as they could hope for, while also potentially messing up Labour's, if it comes last again like this year's (does it?). And it gives a summer's break beforehand where political things are less likely to go wrong.
The only issue with that is that TV screens will be full of Trump v Biden.
I think even the British media's obsession with US politics might be overshadowed there for once. Anyway, that could work both ways for the Tories (though not at once!).
Running the UK election concurrently with the US one would be too crackers even for the loons, weirdos and nutters who constitute today's Tory party.
The election will be late October 2024, before the clocks go back. Say, 24 October.
But which different leader? It's all very well speculating about Penny Morduant, and were there a vacancy she may well win. But then again, she may not. It could be a nutcase or chancer or ideological zealot. But I repeat myself.
Tory MPs have no idea what number is going to come up if they roll the leadership dice and dumping Sunak will only help if his replacement can clearly do a better job. Firstly, can someone do a better job of both articulating an attractive vision and running a government, and secondly, if there is such a person (or such people) what are their chances of winning and what are the risks if they don't?
I think that barring an almighty screw-up over a particular issue, Sunak is there for the duration now. It's just too disruptive and too risky for too little return to change leader yet again - particularly when running a leadership contest is, of itself, likely to hit Tory polling merely for the navel-gazing.
The problem is not the leader; the problem is the party.
It's time.
Her time.
Phwoar
David Byrne called. He wants his trousers back.... and also asked "What the absolute f**k????!!!!!"
The signs were there, Richard, right in front of our eyes.
Rishi Sunak has whatever the opposite of 'electoral magic' is but the Cons have to stick with him into the GE. If they changed PM again people would start to view them as a joke rather than a serious political party.
So far the downwards trajectory of Sunak's net approval matches the scenario I sketched out in my thread header a few weeks back and suggests that Labour remains on course to win a majority. I agree with you that replacing him is not really an option for the Tories. Sad!
You're more cautious than me, I think, in that I'm expecting a chunky majority. Although I'm trying to keep a lid on this because I don't want to get to election morning-after and find myself feeling a bit pissed off about Labour winning with *only* a small majority. Labour GE wins of any kind are not exactly littered through history let's face it.
My preferred outcome would be a tory majority of exactly 1. That would mean the little shit would have to soldier on in scenes of total chaos as he would be beholden to the lunatic whims of every single tory backbencher. He is already given to impulsivity and rank cowardice with a 70 or whatever seat majority so watching him try and spectacularly fail to manage a razor thin one would be wonderful.
....and that one is Peter Bone right-wing flasher extraordinaire
Rishi Sunak has whatever the opposite of 'electoral magic' is but the Cons have to stick with him into the GE. If they changed PM again people would start to view them as a joke rather than a serious political party.
So far the downwards trajectory of Sunak's net approval matches the scenario I sketched out in my thread header a few weeks back and suggests that Labour remains on course to win a majority. I agree with you that replacing him is not really an option for the Tories. Sad!
You're more cautious than me, I think, in that I'm expecting a chunky majority. Although I'm trying to keep a lid on this because I don't want to get to election morning-after and find myself feeling a bit pissed off about Labour winning with *only* a small majority. Labour GE wins of any kind are not exactly littered through history let's face it.
My preferred outcome would be a tory majority of exactly 1. That would mean the little shit would have to soldier on in scenes of total chaos as he would be beholden to the lunatic whims of every single tory backbencher. He is already given to impulsivity and rank cowardice with a 70 or whatever seat majority so watching him try and spectacularly fail to manage a razor thin one would be wonderful.
If you guarantee me that lasts 6 months max before another election and an obliterating defeat I'll perhaps be able to get into the spirit of it.
There is not going to be an election until the last possible moment. There is always time for events and I think the effect distribution is skewed because how much worse could it get on the one hand vs a positive surprise (no, neither can I but still) on the other.
Getting rid of the leader is neither here nor there.
I mean if they decided that polling day should be December 25th I'd see how that would a) depress turnout; and b) cause some degree of resentment, but in for a penny...
FPT: It appears to me that Iran is following mainstream Islamic thought on religious toleration -- or at least trying to appear so. As I understand it, under Islam, Jews and Christians are to be tolerated, as long they pay a special tax and accept their subordinate status. (There was a third, smaller group, included in the "people of the book", but I can't remember the name of the group.)
Other groups may be persecuted, without limit, for example: 'The Iranian authorities’ persecution of the Baha’i religious minority has increased in intensity with a recent flurry of raids, arbitrary arrests, home demolitions and land grabs, Amnesty International said today.
Since 31 July 2022, Ministry of Intelligence agents have raided and confiscated dozens of Baha’i properties and arrested at least 30 members of the Baha’i community on account of their faith in various cities throughout Iran. The authorities have subjected many more to interrogations and/or forced them to wear electronic ankle bracelets. The Ministry of Intelligence announced on 1 August that those arrested were “core members of Baha’i espionage party” who “propagated Baha’i teachings” and “sought to infiltrate various levels of the educational sector across the country, especially kindergartens”.' source: https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/08/iran-stop-ruthless-attacks-on-persecuted-bahai-religious-minority/
Rishi Sunak has whatever the opposite of 'electoral magic' is but the Cons have to stick with him into the GE. If they changed PM again people would start to view them as a joke rather than a serious political party.
So far the downwards trajectory of Sunak's net approval matches the scenario I sketched out in my thread header a few weeks back and suggests that Labour remains on course to win a majority. I agree with you that replacing him is not really an option for the Tories. Sad!
You're more cautious than me, I think, in that I'm expecting a chunky majority. Although I'm trying to keep a lid on this because I don't want to get to election morning-after and find myself feeling a bit pissed off about Labour winning with *only* a small majority. Labour GE wins of any kind are not exactly littered through history let's face it.
My preferred outcome would be a tory majority of exactly 1. That would mean the little shit would have to soldier on in scenes of total chaos as he would be beholden to the lunatic whims of every single tory backbencher. He is already given to impulsivity and rank cowardice with a 70 or whatever seat majority so watching him try and spectacularly fail to manage a razor thin one would be wonderful.
....and that one is Peter Bone right-wing flasher extraordinaire
FPT: It appears to me that Iran is following mainstream Islamic thought on religious toleration -- or at least trying to appear so. As I understand it, under Islam, Jews and Christians are to be tolerated, as long they pay a special tax and accept their subordinate status. (There was a third, smaller group, included in the "people of the book", but I can't remember the name of the group.)
Other groups may be persecuted, without limit, for example: 'The Iranian authorities’ persecution of the Baha’i religious minority has increased in intensity with a recent flurry of raids, arbitrary arrests, home demolitions and land grabs, Amnesty International said today.
Since 31 July 2022, Ministry of Intelligence agents have raided and confiscated dozens of Baha’i properties and arrested at least 30 members of the Baha’i community on account of their faith in various cities throughout Iran. The authorities have subjected many more to interrogations and/or forced them to wear electronic ankle bracelets. The Ministry of Intelligence announced on 1 August that those arrested were “core members of Baha’i espionage party” who “propagated Baha’i teachings” and “sought to infiltrate various levels of the educational sector across the country, especially kindergartens”.' source: https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/08/iran-stop-ruthless-attacks-on-persecuted-bahai-religious-minority/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lotus_Temple Inspired by the sacred lotus flower, the temple's design is composed of 27 free-standing, marble-clad "petals" grouped into clusters of three and thus forming nine sides.[4] The temple's shape has symbolic and inter-religious significance because the lotus is often associated with the Hindu goddess Lakshmi.[46] Nine doors open onto a central hall[45] with permanent seating for 1,200 people, which can be expanded for a total seating capacity of 2,500 people.[21] The temple rises to a height of 40.8 metres[21] and is situated on a property that covers 105,000 square metres and features nine surrounding ponds.[45]
Bearing in mind this morning's conversation about FPTP, surely a good and popular manifesto coupled with decent candidate selection will guarantee re-election?
FPT: It appears to me that Iran is following mainstream Islamic thought on religious toleration -- or at least trying to appear so. As I understand it, under Islam, Jews and Christians are to be tolerated, as long they pay a special tax and accept their subordinate status. (There was a third, smaller group, included in the "people of the book", but I can't remember the name of the group.)
Other groups may be persecuted, without limit, for example: 'The Iranian authorities’ persecution of the Baha’i religious minority has increased in intensity with a recent flurry of raids, arbitrary arrests, home demolitions and land grabs, Amnesty International said today.
Since 31 July 2022, Ministry of Intelligence agents have raided and confiscated dozens of Baha’i properties and arrested at least 30 members of the Baha’i community on account of their faith in various cities throughout Iran. The authorities have subjected many more to interrogations and/or forced them to wear electronic ankle bracelets. The Ministry of Intelligence announced on 1 August that those arrested were “core members of Baha’i espionage party” who “propagated Baha’i teachings” and “sought to infiltrate various levels of the educational sector across the country, especially kindergartens”.' source: https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/08/iran-stop-ruthless-attacks-on-persecuted-bahai-religious-minority/
It depended on views at particular times, but the traditional third People of the Book in the Quran are the Sabians… it’s just not clear who those are! There don’t appear to be any Sabians around today. Other groups have sometimes been included. In the Iranian context, the most important group sometimes included are the Zoroastrians, like Freddie Mercury’s family.
There is not going to be an election until the last possible moment. There is always time for events and I think the effect distribution is skewed because how much worse could it get on the one hand vs a positive surprise (no, neither can I but still) on the other.
Getting rid of the leader is neither here nor there.
They aren’t going to hold an election in January with the campaign during Christmas.
FPT: It appears to me that Iran is following mainstream Islamic thought on religious toleration -- or at least trying to appear so. As I understand it, under Islam, Jews and Christians are to be tolerated, as long they pay a special tax and accept their subordinate status. (There was a third, smaller group, included in the "people of the book", but I can't remember the name of the group.)
Other groups may be persecuted, without limit, for example: 'The Iranian authorities’ persecution of the Baha’i religious minority has increased in intensity with a recent flurry of raids, arbitrary arrests, home demolitions and land grabs, Amnesty International said today.
Since 31 July 2022, Ministry of Intelligence agents have raided and confiscated dozens of Baha’i properties and arrested at least 30 members of the Baha’i community on account of their faith in various cities throughout Iran. The authorities have subjected many more to interrogations and/or forced them to wear electronic ankle bracelets. The Ministry of Intelligence announced on 1 August that those arrested were “core members of Baha’i espionage party” who “propagated Baha’i teachings” and “sought to infiltrate various levels of the educational sector across the country, especially kindergartens”.' source: https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/08/iran-stop-ruthless-attacks-on-persecuted-bahai-religious-minority/
It depended on views at particular times, but the traditional third People of the Book in the Quran are the Sabians… it’s just not clear who those are! There don’t appear to be any Sabians around today. Other groups have sometimes been included. In the Iranian context, the most important group sometimes included are the Zoroastrians, like Freddie Mercury’s family.
In the Quran they are identified as the Jews, the Christians, the Sabians, and—according to some interpretations—the Zoroastrians.[2] Starting from the 8th century, some Muslims also recognized other religious groups such as the Samaritans,[3] and even Buddhists, Hindus, and Jains,[4] as People of the Book.
They would win most seats with Boris Johnson. But he's no longer an MP. Not sure he has to be?
As a left-of-centre pragmatist it's Johnson whom I fear. Everyone else = Labour majority, probable landslide. Penny Mordaunt is getting like Liz Truss Mk II. I mean, she's really a bit ... strange at times. Perhaps most of the time. Holding a phallus doesn't a good PM make.
*This is not an endorsement of Boris Johnson. He's a shit. But he is a shit who reaches parts no other tories can.
There is not going to be an election until the last possible moment. There is always time for events and I think the effect distribution is skewed because how much worse could it get on the one hand vs a positive surprise (no, neither can I but still) on the other.
Getting rid of the leader is neither here nor there.
They aren’t going to hold an election in January with the campaign during Christmas.
Chance of Jan 2025 = NIL
CON would be heading for sub 100 if they tried that.
On topic, more or less: In the US, taller candidates often have a small advantage. Is there any polling that shows his height is hurting Sunak?
Negligible, I'd have thought.
Not sure there's polling evidence, although I do note the recent word cloud on Sunak didn't appear to feature references to his height (although it did to a minor degree mention his ethnicity, and to a larger degree some very rude words, so "short-arse" wasn't apparently missed out for reasons of taste but because it wasn't at the front of people's minds).
Sunak is, I think, the same height as Churchill - who of course lost one landslide election, but I doubt people were thinking at that time, "Well, he won a World War, but he'd be no bloody use getting a jar off the top shelf". The other big height disparity was Thatcher versus her opponents, and it didn't seem to do her much harm.
They would win most seats with Boris Johnson. But he's no longer an MP. Not sure he has to be?
As a left-of-centre pragmatist it's Johnson whom I fear. Everyone else = Labour majority, probable landslide. Penny Mordaunt is getting like Liz Truss Mk II. I mean, she's really a bit ... strange at times. Perhaps most of the time. Holding a phallus doesn't a good PM make.
*This is not an endorsement of Boris Johnson. He's a shit. But he is a shit who reaches parts no other tories can.
How are we the only two people on here who think this? It seems so obvious
Rishi Sunak has whatever the opposite of 'electoral magic' is but the Cons have to stick with him into the GE. If they changed PM again people would start to view them as a joke rather than a serious political party.
So far the downwards trajectory of Sunak's net approval matches the scenario I sketched out in my thread header a few weeks back and suggests that Labour remains on course to win a majority. I agree with you that replacing him is not really an option for the Tories. Sad!
You're more cautious than me, I think, in that I'm expecting a chunky majority. Although I'm trying to keep a lid on this because I don't want to get to election morning-after and find myself feeling a bit pissed off about Labour winning with *only* a small majority. Labour GE wins of any kind are not exactly littered through history let's face it.
My preferred outcome would be a tory majority of exactly 1. That would mean the little shit would have to soldier on in scenes of total chaos as he would be beholden to the lunatic whims of every single tory backbencher. He is already given to impulsivity and rank cowardice with a 70 or whatever seat majority so watching him try and spectacularly fail to manage a razor thin one would be wonderful.
....and that one is Peter Bone right-wing flasher extraordinaire
The finding is he bullied a young male employee. Some of the usual ranting and raving but also some bizarre stuff in terms of throwing things at him, making him sit with his hands in his lap as a sort of punishment, and getting his bits and bobs out, possibly as more of a sort of weird power-play than a sexual pass, in a hotel room.
This was ten years ago, but apparently about half of this was the Tories refusing to look into it, then going slow etc before it went to the Commons authorities.
There is not going to be an election until the last possible moment. There is always time for events and I think the effect distribution is skewed because how much worse could it get on the one hand vs a positive surprise (no, neither can I but still) on the other.
Getting rid of the leader is neither here nor there.
They aren’t going to hold an election in January with the campaign during Christmas.
Chance of Jan 2025 = NIL
CON would be heading for sub 100 if they tried that.
Why would Sunak give a tiny, shiny fuck how many seats the tories have after the election? He'll be in an F-class seat to LAX within weeks of the defeat. His primary ambition will be just to maximise his time as PMOTUK. January 2025 gives him nearly 2 and a half years which is almost respectable.
There is not going to be an election until the last possible moment. There is always time for events and I think the effect distribution is skewed because how much worse could it get on the one hand vs a positive surprise (no, neither can I but still) on the other.
Getting rid of the leader is neither here nor there.
They aren’t going to hold an election in January with the campaign during Christmas.
Chance of Jan 2025 = NIL
CON would be heading for sub 100 if they tried that.
They would win most seats with Boris Johnson. But he's no longer an MP. Not sure he has to be?
As a left-of-centre pragmatist it's Johnson whom I fear. Everyone else = Labour majority, probable landslide. Penny Mordaunt is getting like Liz Truss Mk II. I mean, she's really a bit ... strange at times. Perhaps most of the time. Holding a phallus doesn't a good PM make.
*This is not an endorsement of Boris Johnson. He's a shit. But he is a shit who reaches parts no other tories can.
How are we the only two people on here who think this? It seems so obvious
Johnson has a certain charisma and campaigning nouse, but his personal polls ratings and the party’s were abysmal when he left office. Johnson now would not be Johnson 2019. I’m sure he has his fans and you get them, but the campaign would feature extensive coverage of his every well-reported failing. Partygate, let the bodies pile up, backing Pincher, leaving Parliament in a huff, having lied to Parliament…
Has anyone talked about the Steve Bell sacking? My feeling is that it's a poor decision by the Guardian. Cartoonists should be given the leeway to challenge anything they want particularly in a so called radical paper like the Guardian. The template should be Charlie Hebdo.
The 'Je suis Charlie' campaign which attracted 1,300,000 demonstrators and most world leaders was about free speech not the sensitivity of assorted countries. Nor about bad taste a line which Steve Bell sometimes crosses. But that's what cartoonists are for
There is not going to be an election until the last possible moment. There is always time for events and I think the effect distribution is skewed because how much worse could it get on the one hand vs a positive surprise (no, neither can I but still) on the other.
Getting rid of the leader is neither here nor there.
They aren’t going to hold an election in January with the campaign during Christmas.
Chance of Jan 2025 = NIL
CON would be heading for sub 100 if they tried that.
I can see January 2025. Some Conservatives think bad weather helps them as feckless Labour and LibDem voters stay at home in the warm.
They would win most seats with Boris Johnson. But he's no longer an MP. Not sure he has to be?
As a left-of-centre pragmatist it's Johnson whom I fear. Everyone else = Labour majority, probable landslide. Penny Mordaunt is getting like Liz Truss Mk II. I mean, she's really a bit ... strange at times. Perhaps most of the time. Holding a phallus doesn't a good PM make.
*This is not an endorsement of Boris Johnson. He's a shit. But he is a shit who reaches parts no other tories can.
How are we the only two people on here who think this? It seems so obvious
Boris Johnson could certainly reach people that other - more traditional Tories - cannot.
And that gives him a higher ceiling than a Sunak or Truss.
*However*, I think it is easy to forget the fall of Johnson. He had (again) lied about what he knew. He lied to the House of Commons. And the Conservatives - who had had a pretty good run of byelections going back to 2016 - had started losing safe seats on massive swings.
If he had remained PM, but hadn't repeatedly lied, then yes, he would almost certainly be polling better than Sunak.
They would win most seats with Boris Johnson. But he's no longer an MP. Not sure he has to be?
As a left-of-centre pragmatist it's Johnson whom I fear. Everyone else = Labour majority, probable landslide. Penny Mordaunt is getting like Liz Truss Mk II. I mean, she's really a bit ... strange at times. Perhaps most of the time. Holding a phallus doesn't a good PM make.
*This is not an endorsement of Boris Johnson. He's a shit. But he is a shit who reaches parts no other tories can.
I would fear Johnson if he was able to manage those aspects of his character that make it impossible for him to hold high office again.
Essentially, he is completely incapable of being honest to colleagues and, whilst his strained relationship with facts has long been known, it's hard now for colleagues to sustain the fantasy that it can be managed and controlled. In the absence of trust, dysfunctionality is inevitable.
I agree he has charisma, albeit the "good old Boris - he's a laugh" thing is essentially dead (too many people are wise to it). But even if he is still a draw for voters, Tory MPs need to consider if that's sustainable should he ever get high office again.
No, it's over for Johnson. A few decades of newspaper columns, after-dinner speeches, occasional forays into the discourse, and copious extramarital shagging await. But never again those bright, sunlit uplands.
We are no better than the Nazis in about 1935. This sickness has to be extirpated, people need to do long long jail times
Small mercies: no people attacked; no windows broken. Or does that make it worse because this was not mindless violence? Someone put a degree of thought into this.
No the Conservatives wouldn't do much better under an alternative leader and may well do worse with some. The focus of the government should be getting inflation and then interest rates down which is likely to have far more impact.
A third consecutive change of PM in one Parliament would look farcical to the voters and Mordaunt is probably too woke for the membership anyway, you could equally end up with PM Braverman or Badenoch if they go to the final 2
There is not going to be an election until the last possible moment. There is always time for events and I think the effect distribution is skewed because how much worse could it get on the one hand vs a positive surprise (no, neither can I but still) on the other.
Getting rid of the leader is neither here nor there.
They aren’t going to hold an election in January with the campaign during Christmas.
Chance of Jan 2025 = NIL
CON would be heading for sub 100 if they tried that.
I can see January 2025. Some Conservatives think bad weather helps them as feckless Labour and LibDem voters stay at home in the warm.
There's no actual evidence, as far as I've seen, that poor weather benefits a particular party in the UK.
Indeed, you could argue it might hurt the Tories as people of working age are typically out of the house on a Thursday so might as well swing by the polling station given they are wet/cold anyway, whereas pensioners can legitimately turn on the central heating and stay at home all day. But there doesn't seem to be evidence either way, and I suspect it's negligible.
We are no better than the Nazis in about 1935. This sickness has to be extirpated, people need to do long long jail times
Small mercies: no people attacked; no windows broken. Or does that make it worse because this was not mindless violence? Someone put a degree of thought into this.
TwiX actually has a likely culprit. She's done it before. She's been caught on cameria. She calls it "street art". She is openly anti Semitic. She lives very near me! She's also - surprise surprise - a big conspiracy theorist
Well, what may have been provocative street art in 2019 now looks like a hideous attempt to terrify Jewish kids and - if it is her - she needs banging up, to teach her a lesson
This needs to be stamped out before it all gets worse
Some chap lost his (complete guess) £250-£500k job because he put his wife's £10 coffee and sandwich on expenses. Ironically, he was a specialist in financial crime.
Has anyone talked about the Steve Bell sacking? My feeling is that it's a poor decision by the Guardian. Cartoonists should be given the leeway to challenge anything they want particularly in a so called radical paper like the Guardian. The template should be Charlie Hebdo.
The 'Je suis Charlie' campaign which attracted 1,300,000 demonstrators and most world leaders was about free speech not the sensitivity of assorted countries. Nor about bad taste a line which Steve Bell sometimes crosses. But that's what cartoonists are for
Hold on: is Steve Bell now officially Roger-defined 'talent', and therefore excused any wrongdoing?
They would win most seats with Boris Johnson. But he's no longer an MP. Not sure he has to be?
As a left-of-centre pragmatist it's Johnson whom I fear. Everyone else = Labour majority, probable landslide. Penny Mordaunt is getting like Liz Truss Mk II. I mean, she's really a bit ... strange at times. Perhaps most of the time. Holding a phallus doesn't a good PM make.
*This is not an endorsement of Boris Johnson. He's a shit. But he is a shit who reaches parts no other tories can.
I would fear Johnson if he was able to manage those aspects of his character that make it impossible for him to hold high office again.
Essentially, he is completely incapable of being honest to colleagues and, whilst his strained relationship with facts has long been known, it's hard now for colleagues to sustain the fantasy that it can be managed and controlled. In the absence of trust, dysfunctionality is inevitable.
I agree he has charisma, albeit the "good old Boris - he's a laugh" thing is essentially dead (too many people are wise to it). But even if he is still a draw for voters, Tory MPs need to consider if that's sustainable should he ever get high office again.
No, it's over for Johnson. A few decades of newspaper columns, after-dinner speeches, occasional forays into the discourse, and copious extramarital shagging await. But never again those bright, sunlit uplands.
And basically self inflicted. Had it not have been for Paterson, Partygate and Pincher, he could well still be there.
They would win most seats with Boris Johnson. But he's no longer an MP. Not sure he has to be?
As a left-of-centre pragmatist it's Johnson whom I fear. Everyone else = Labour majority, probable landslide. Penny Mordaunt is getting like Liz Truss Mk II. I mean, she's really a bit ... strange at times. Perhaps most of the time. Holding a phallus doesn't a good PM make.
*This is not an endorsement of Boris Johnson. He's a shit. But he is a shit who reaches parts no other tories can.
I would fear Johnson if he was able to manage those aspects of his character that make it impossible for him to hold high office again.
Essentially, he is completely incapable of being honest to colleagues and, whilst his strained relationship with facts has long been known, it's hard now for colleagues to sustain the fantasy that it can be managed and controlled. In the absence of trust, dysfunctionality is inevitable.
I agree he has charisma, albeit the "good old Boris - he's a laugh" thing is essentially dead (too many people are wise to it). But even if he is still a draw for voters, Tory MPs need to consider if that's sustainable should he ever get high office again.
No, it's over for Johnson. A few decades of newspaper columns, after-dinner speeches, occasional forays into the discourse, and copious extramarital shagging await. But never again those bright, sunlit uplands.
And basically self inflicted. Had it not have been for Paterson, Partygate and Pincher, he could well still be there.
They would win most seats with Boris Johnson. But he's no longer an MP. Not sure he has to be?
As a left-of-centre pragmatist it's Johnson whom I fear. Everyone else = Labour majority, probable landslide. Penny Mordaunt is getting like Liz Truss Mk II. I mean, she's really a bit ... strange at times. Perhaps most of the time. Holding a phallus doesn't a good PM make.
*This is not an endorsement of Boris Johnson. He's a shit. But he is a shit who reaches parts no other tories can.
I would fear Johnson if he was able to manage those aspects of his character that make it impossible for him to hold high office again.
Essentially, he is completely incapable of being honest to colleagues and, whilst his strained relationship with facts has long been known, it's hard now for colleagues to sustain the fantasy that it can be managed and controlled. In the absence of trust, dysfunctionality is inevitable.
I agree he has charisma, albeit the "good old Boris - he's a laugh" thing is essentially dead (too many people are wise to it). But even if he is still a draw for voters, Tory MPs need to consider if that's sustainable should he ever get high office again.
No, it's over for Johnson. A few decades of newspaper columns, after-dinner speeches, occasional forays into the discourse, and copious extramarital shagging await. But never again those bright, sunlit uplands.
And basically self inflicted. Had it not have been for Paterson, Partygate and Pincher, he could well still be there.
Indeed. And the warning signs were visible well before he ever became PM.He was brought down by flaws in his character that were long-standing, and which he ?sadly? could not change.
We are no better than the Nazis in about 1935. This sickness has to be extirpated, people need to do long long jail times
The people that did this are either thick or verging on mentally ill or just seeking a kind of self-serving narcissistic notoriety.
To think that the actions of Israel has any reflection whatsoever on Jewish people (adults and especially children) elsewhere is an extreme form of tribal collectivist thinking.
The sane majority have far too many of these people amongst us.
Some chap lost his (complete guess) £250-£500k job because he put his wife's £10 coffee and sandwich on expenses. Ironically, he was a specialist in financial crime.
They must of wanted to get rid and used this as the tool.
Some chap lost his (complete guess) £250-£500k job because he put his wife's £10 coffee and sandwich on expenses. Ironically, he was a specialist in financial crime.
I doubt he was on £500k/year, probably more like £150-200k.
They would win most seats with Boris Johnson. But he's no longer an MP. Not sure he has to be?
As a left-of-centre pragmatist it's Johnson whom I fear. Everyone else = Labour majority, probable landslide. Penny Mordaunt is getting like Liz Truss Mk II. I mean, she's really a bit ... strange at times. Perhaps most of the time. Holding a phallus doesn't a good PM make.
*This is not an endorsement of Boris Johnson. He's a shit. But he is a shit who reaches parts no other tories can.
I would fear Johnson if he was able to manage those aspects of his character that make it impossible for him to hold high office again.
Essentially, he is completely incapable of being honest to colleagues and, whilst his strained relationship with facts has long been known, it's hard now for colleagues to sustain the fantasy that it can be managed and controlled. In the absence of trust, dysfunctionality is inevitable.
I agree he has charisma, albeit the "good old Boris - he's a laugh" thing is essentially dead (too many people are wise to it). But even if he is still a draw for voters, Tory MPs need to consider if that's sustainable should he ever get high office again.
No, it's over for Johnson. A few decades of newspaper columns, after-dinner speeches, occasional forays into the discourse, and copious extramarital shagging await. But never again those bright, sunlit uplands.
And basically self inflicted. Had it not have been for Paterson, Partygate and Pincher, he could well still be there.
Indeed. And the warning signs were visible well before he ever became PM.He was brought down by flaws in his character that were long-standing, and which he ?sadly? could not change.
I lost by betting against Boris becoming leader. His flaws were obvious, and even mirrored Jeremy Corbyn's.
Some chap lost his (complete guess) £250-£500k job because he put his wife's £10 coffee and sandwich on expenses. Ironically, he was a specialist in financial crime.
They must of wanted to get rid and used this as the tool.
I've always had a pretty zero tolerance for expenses fraud.
Finance people are typically paid very well, and if they are willing to lie to gain a £20 advantage, what might they be prepared to do if £200k (or £20m) was on the line.
Has anyone talked about the Steve Bell sacking? My feeling is that it's a poor decision by the Guardian. Cartoonists should be given the leeway to challenge anything they want particularly in a so called radical paper like the Guardian. The template should be Charlie Hebdo.
The 'Je suis Charlie' campaign which attracted 1,300,000 demonstrators and most world leaders was about free speech not the sensitivity of assorted countries. Nor about bad taste a line which Steve Bell sometimes crosses. But that's what cartoonists are for
Hold on: is Steve Bell now officially Roger-defined 'talent', and therefore excused any wrongdoing?
They would win most seats with Boris Johnson. But he's no longer an MP. Not sure he has to be?
As a left-of-centre pragmatist it's Johnson whom I fear. Everyone else = Labour majority, probable landslide. Penny Mordaunt is getting like Liz Truss Mk II. I mean, she's really a bit ... strange at times. Perhaps most of the time. Holding a phallus doesn't a good PM make.
*This is not an endorsement of Boris Johnson. He's a shit. But he is a shit who reaches parts no other tories can.
I would fear Johnson if he was able to manage those aspects of his character that make it impossible for him to hold high office again.
Essentially, he is completely incapable of being honest to colleagues and, whilst his strained relationship with facts has long been known, it's hard now for colleagues to sustain the fantasy that it can be managed and controlled. In the absence of trust, dysfunctionality is inevitable.
I agree he has charisma, albeit the "good old Boris - he's a laugh" thing is essentially dead (too many people are wise to it). But even if he is still a draw for voters, Tory MPs need to consider if that's sustainable should he ever get high office again.
No, it's over for Johnson. A few decades of newspaper columns, after-dinner speeches, occasional forays into the discourse, and copious extramarital shagging await. But never again those bright, sunlit uplands.
And basically self inflicted. Had it not have been for Paterson, Partygate and Pincher, he could well still be there.
Indeed. And the warning signs were visible well before he ever became PM.He was brought down by flaws in his character that were long-standing, and which he ?sadly? could not change.
I lost by betting against Boris becoming leader. His flaws were obvious, and even mirrored Jeremy Corbyn's.
It's interesting that the three things that brought him down - as mentioned below, Paterson, Partygate and Pincher - all, IIRC, came out *after* he had been seriously ill with Covid. I do wonder if his already-poor judgement had been made even worse in the weeks and months following that. Especially considering the pressure he was under wrt dealing with Covid.
Ah, the lost leader. How your heart must weep for the past
You’re currently persuading yourself to vote for Starmer, so presumably you’ve got a scrunched up wee having to eat a shit sandwich face for the future.
"Allowing low-level offenders to avoid jail and deporting foreign criminals earlier are among government plans aimed at tackling severe overcrowding in prisons in England and Wales.
Figures from earlier this year revealed that 61% of prisons were overcrowded.
The justice secretary is due to set out details of his plan for easing pressure in Parliament on Monday afternoon.
Alex Chalk has already said he wants some offenders to do community work rather than short stints in prison."
Has anyone talked about the Steve Bell sacking? My feeling is that it's a poor decision by the Guardian. Cartoonists should be given the leeway to challenge anything they want particularly in a so called radical paper like the Guardian. The template should be Charlie Hebdo.
The 'Je suis Charlie' campaign which attracted 1,300,000 demonstrators and most world leaders was about free speech not the sensitivity of assorted countries. Nor about bad taste a line which Steve Bell sometimes crosses. But that's what cartoonists are for
Hold on: is Steve Bell now officially Roger-defined 'talent', and therefore excused any wrongdoing?
Please tell.
It turns out free speech is complicated stuff.
It is indeed. I would argue that his portrayal of Patel as a cow was f-all to do with free speech, and totally an attempt to denigrate her for her religion and gender. Which a cleverer person would have done in a smarter, and less gratuitously offensive, way.
If Bell was funny, he might actually get away with such beahviour.
"Allowing low-level offenders to avoid jail and deporting foreign criminals earlier are among government plans aimed at tackling severe overcrowding in prisons in England and Wales.
Figures from earlier this year revealed that 61% of prisons were overcrowded.
The justice secretary is due to set out details of his plan for easing pressure in Parliament on Monday afternoon.
Alex Chalk has already said he wants some offenders to do community work rather than short stints in prison."
They would win most seats with Boris Johnson. But he's no longer an MP. Not sure he has to be?
As a left-of-centre pragmatist it's Johnson whom I fear. Everyone else = Labour majority, probable landslide. Penny Mordaunt is getting like Liz Truss Mk II. I mean, she's really a bit ... strange at times. Perhaps most of the time. Holding a phallus doesn't a good PM make.
*This is not an endorsement of Boris Johnson. He's a shit. But he is a shit who reaches parts no other tories can.
I would fear Johnson if he was able to manage those aspects of his character that make it impossible for him to hold high office again.
Essentially, he is completely incapable of being honest to colleagues and, whilst his strained relationship with facts has long been known, it's hard now for colleagues to sustain the fantasy that it can be managed and controlled. In the absence of trust, dysfunctionality is inevitable.
I agree he has charisma, albeit the "good old Boris - he's a laugh" thing is essentially dead (too many people are wise to it). But even if he is still a draw for voters, Tory MPs need to consider if that's sustainable should he ever get high office again.
No, it's over for Johnson. A few decades of newspaper columns, after-dinner speeches, occasional forays into the discourse, and copious extramarital shagging await. But never again those bright, sunlit uplands.
And basically self inflicted. Had it not have been for Paterson, Partygate and Pincher, he could well still be there.
Covid - pure and simple. Not only did it affect his own health and well being but it prevented him playing his role as Britain's Chief Optimist keeping us positive, upbeat, enjoying life and not thinking too much about politics. He was the leader for the "Roaring Twenties" but not for the 20s we've had so far.
Is there a way back? He spent twenty years manoeuvring his way to the top to find the job he craved and desired wasn't what he expected or wanted. He'll be 60 next June - could he find a "safe" seat in a midterm by-election, much as Portillo did in 1999? Would he want it?
They would win most seats with Boris Johnson. But he's no longer an MP. Not sure he has to be?
As a left-of-centre pragmatist it's Johnson whom I fear. Everyone else = Labour majority, probable landslide. Penny Mordaunt is getting like Liz Truss Mk II. I mean, she's really a bit ... strange at times. Perhaps most of the time. Holding a phallus doesn't a good PM make.
*This is not an endorsement of Boris Johnson. He's a shit. But he is a shit who reaches parts no other tories can.
I would fear Johnson if he was able to manage those aspects of his character that make it impossible for him to hold high office again.
Essentially, he is completely incapable of being honest to colleagues and, whilst his strained relationship with facts has long been known, it's hard now for colleagues to sustain the fantasy that it can be managed and controlled. In the absence of trust, dysfunctionality is inevitable.
I agree he has charisma, albeit the "good old Boris - he's a laugh" thing is essentially dead (too many people are wise to it). But even if he is still a draw for voters, Tory MPs need to consider if that's sustainable should he ever get high office again.
No, it's over for Johnson. A few decades of newspaper columns, after-dinner speeches, occasional forays into the discourse, and copious extramarital shagging await. But never again those bright, sunlit uplands.
And basically self inflicted. Had it not have been for Paterson, Partygate and Pincher, he could well still be there.
Indeed. And the warning signs were visible well before he ever became PM.He was brought down by flaws in his character that were long-standing, and which he ?sadly? could not change.
I lost by betting against Boris becoming leader. His flaws were obvious, and even mirrored Jeremy Corbyn's.
It's interesting that the three things that brought him down - as mentioned below, Paterson, Partygate and Pincher - all, IIRC, came out *after* he had been seriously ill with Covid. I do wonder if his already-poor judgement had been made even worse in the weeks and months following that. Especially considering the pressure he was under wrt dealing with Covid.
Boris's judgement was poor in these instances but another factor was Boris's indifference to facts, and his conviction that rules are for other people. Working backwards along that list meant Boris was wholly reliant on his flawed judgement because he'd not bothered to establish the facts because he did not think the rules mattered. That's true of Partygate, Paterson and Pincher, as well as other minor scandals like the BBC boss and loan arranger, wallpapergate, and the Caribbean holiday.
Some chap lost his (complete guess) £250-£500k job because he put his wife's £10 coffee and sandwich on expenses. Ironically, he was a specialist in financial crime.
They must of wanted to get rid and used this as the tool.
Doubt it - the guy wasn't anywhere senior enough to justify the expense, or the attention from the legal team.
An absolute classic in sending a message to the rest of your staff, though. Will probably result in a noticeable drop in expense claims over the next few years.
They would win most seats with Boris Johnson. But he's no longer an MP. Not sure he has to be?
As a left-of-centre pragmatist it's Johnson whom I fear. Everyone else = Labour majority, probable landslide. Penny Mordaunt is getting like Liz Truss Mk II. I mean, she's really a bit ... strange at times. Perhaps most of the time. Holding a phallus doesn't a good PM make.
*This is not an endorsement of Boris Johnson. He's a shit. But he is a shit who reaches parts no other tories can.
I would fear Johnson if he was able to manage those aspects of his character that make it impossible for him to hold high office again.
Essentially, he is completely incapable of being honest to colleagues and, whilst his strained relationship with facts has long been known, it's hard now for colleagues to sustain the fantasy that it can be managed and controlled. In the absence of trust, dysfunctionality is inevitable.
I agree he has charisma, albeit the "good old Boris - he's a laugh" thing is essentially dead (too many people are wise to it). But even if he is still a draw for voters, Tory MPs need to consider if that's sustainable should he ever get high office again.
No, it's over for Johnson. A few decades of newspaper columns, after-dinner speeches, occasional forays into the discourse, and copious extramarital shagging await. But never again those bright, sunlit uplands.
And basically self inflicted. Had it not have been for Paterson, Partygate and Pincher, he could well still be there.
And he could have survived Partygate, if he'd been a bit more apologetic a bit earlier.
Lots of stress. People looking to unwind. It was wrong, especially given what others were going to through. Deeply sorry it occurred.
They would win most seats with Boris Johnson. But he's no longer an MP. Not sure he has to be?
As a left-of-centre pragmatist it's Johnson whom I fear. Everyone else = Labour majority, probable landslide. Penny Mordaunt is getting like Liz Truss Mk II. I mean, she's really a bit ... strange at times. Perhaps most of the time. Holding a phallus doesn't a good PM make.
*This is not an endorsement of Boris Johnson. He's a shit. But he is a shit who reaches parts no other tories can.
I would fear Johnson if he was able to manage those aspects of his character that make it impossible for him to hold high office again.
Essentially, he is completely incapable of being honest to colleagues and, whilst his strained relationship with facts has long been known, it's hard now for colleagues to sustain the fantasy that it can be managed and controlled. In the absence of trust, dysfunctionality is inevitable.
I agree he has charisma, albeit the "good old Boris - he's a laugh" thing is essentially dead (too many people are wise to it). But even if he is still a draw for voters, Tory MPs need to consider if that's sustainable should he ever get high office again.
No, it's over for Johnson. A few decades of newspaper columns, after-dinner speeches, occasional forays into the discourse, and copious extramarital shagging await. But never again those bright, sunlit uplands.
And basically self inflicted. Had it not have been for Paterson, Partygate and Pincher, he could well still be there.
Indeed. And the warning signs were visible well before he ever became PM.He was brought down by flaws in his character that were long-standing, and which he ?sadly? could not change.
I lost by betting against Boris becoming leader. His flaws were obvious, and even mirrored Jeremy Corbyn's.
It's interesting that the three things that brought him down - as mentioned below, Paterson, Partygate and Pincher - all, IIRC, came out *after* he had been seriously ill with Covid. I do wonder if his already-poor judgement had been made even worse in the weeks and months following that. Especially considering the pressure he was under wrt dealing with Covid.
Interesting. I think I'd put it a bit differently. Before 2020, Boris had excellent judgement of one specific thing- how far you can cross the line and get away with it. The unwelcome truth for his enemies that he had spent a lifetime getting away with it.
But, like taking a corner faster than you should, you really need quicksilver instincts to do that successfully. And a combination of the Big C, advancing years and a new baby blurred those instincts fatally.
Has anyone talked about the Steve Bell sacking? My feeling is that it's a poor decision by the Guardian. Cartoonists should be given the leeway to challenge anything they want particularly in a so called radical paper like the Guardian. The template should be Charlie Hebdo.
The 'Je suis Charlie' campaign which attracted 1,300,000 demonstrators and most world leaders was about free speech not the sensitivity of assorted countries. Nor about bad taste a line which Steve Bell sometimes crosses. But that's what cartoonists are for
Hold on: is Steve Bell now officially Roger-defined 'talent', and therefore excused any wrongdoing?
Please tell.
It turns out free speech is complicated stuff.
It is indeed. I would argue that his portrayal of Patel as a cow was f-all to do with free speech, and totally an attempt to denigrate her for her religion and gender. Which a cleverer person would have done in a smarter, and less gratuitously offensive, way.
If Bell was funny, he might actually get away with such beahviour.
Free speech isn't difficult - fair speech is. If one side has a monopoly of the media, they can proclaim free speech safe in the knowledge it isn't.
There's also this notion of the right to offend and the right to be offended. It's my experience those who espouse the former aren't too happy when confronted with the latter.
Comments
...
If you want to get a sense of how the Tories themselves view Sunak, look at Dowdwn and Shapps today in the Commons ...
https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1713936288942821846
https://x.com/yousefmunayyer/status/1713903256059937012?s=46&t=16Vx1hkPdKeRguANzrOtZQ
Although a vacancy (or vacancies) would definitely be one way to produce an odd-numbered majority, if only temporarily.
Suck the marrow out of this bone...
Westminster VI (15 October):
Labour 43% (–)
Conservative 29% (+2)
Liberal Democrat 14% (+1)
Reform UK 7% (-1)
Green 4% (-2)
Scottish National Party 1% (–)
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1713947920066859476
It's ironic really. Brexit was meant to destroy the Tories but for a while it destroyed Labour instead. Then it pulled itself together and remembered what it was meant to be doing - and destroyed the Tories.
The election will be late October 2024, before the clocks go back. Say, 24 October.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/16/tory-mp-peter-bone-hit-and-abused-staff-member-watchdog-says
Getting rid of the leader is neither here nor there.
Other groups may be persecuted, without limit, for example: 'The Iranian authorities’ persecution of the Baha’i religious minority has increased in intensity with a recent flurry of raids, arbitrary arrests, home demolitions and land grabs, Amnesty International said today.
Since 31 July 2022, Ministry of Intelligence agents have raided and confiscated dozens of Baha’i properties and arrested at least 30 members of the Baha’i community on account of their faith in various cities throughout Iran. The authorities have subjected many more to interrogations and/or forced them to wear electronic ankle bracelets. The Ministry of Intelligence announced on 1 August that those arrested were “core members of Baha’i espionage party” who “propagated Baha’i teachings” and “sought to infiltrate various levels of the educational sector across the country, especially kindergartens”.'
source: https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/08/iran-stop-ruthless-attacks-on-persecuted-bahai-religious-minority/
*whistles nervously*
There's a nice Baha'i Temple in New Delhi, India.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lotus_Temple
Inspired by the sacred lotus flower, the temple's design is composed of 27 free-standing, marble-clad "petals" grouped into clusters of three and thus forming nine sides.[4] The temple's shape has symbolic and inter-religious significance because the lotus is often associated with the Hindu goddess Lakshmi.[46] Nine doors open onto a central hall[45] with permanent seating for 1,200 people, which can be expanded for a total seating capacity of 2,500 people.[21] The temple rises to a height of 40.8 metres[21] and is situated on a property that covers 105,000 square metres and features nine surrounding ponds.[45]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People_of_the_Book
Shouldn’t have to say this but Jewish children in Britain have nothing to do with the Israel/Palestine conflict.
https://twitter.com/ArchRose90/status/1713894563411001841
They would win most seats with Boris Johnson. But he's no longer an MP. Not sure he has to be?
As a left-of-centre pragmatist it's Johnson whom I fear. Everyone else = Labour majority, probable landslide. Penny Mordaunt is getting like Liz Truss Mk II. I mean, she's really a bit ... strange at times. Perhaps most of the time. Holding a phallus doesn't a good PM make.
*This is not an endorsement of Boris Johnson. He's a shit. But he is a shit who reaches parts no other tories can.
CON would be heading for sub 100 if they tried that.
Not sure there's polling evidence, although I do note the recent word cloud on Sunak didn't appear to feature references to his height (although it did to a minor degree mention his ethnicity, and to a larger degree some very rude words, so "short-arse" wasn't apparently missed out for reasons of taste but because it wasn't at the front of people's minds).
Sunak is, I think, the same height as Churchill - who of course lost one landslide election, but I doubt people were thinking at that time, "Well, he won a World War, but he'd be no bloody use getting a jar off the top shelf". The other big height disparity was Thatcher versus her opponents, and it didn't seem to do her much harm.
TBC . . .
This was ten years ago, but apparently about half of this was the Tories refusing to look into it, then going slow etc before it went to the Commons authorities.
The 'Je suis Charlie' campaign which attracted 1,300,000 demonstrators and most world leaders was about free speech not the sensitivity of assorted countries. Nor about bad taste a line which Steve Bell sometimes crosses. But that's what cartoonists are for
We are no better than the Nazis in about 1935. This sickness has to be extirpated, people need to do long long jail times
And that gives him a higher ceiling than a Sunak or Truss.
*However*, I think it is easy to forget the fall of Johnson. He had (again) lied about what he knew. He lied to the House of Commons. And the Conservatives - who had had a pretty good run of byelections going back to 2016 - had started losing safe seats on massive swings.
If he had remained PM, but hadn't repeatedly lied, then yes, he would almost certainly be polling better than Sunak.
But that wasn't where we were at.
Essentially, he is completely incapable of being honest to colleagues and, whilst his strained relationship with facts has long been known, it's hard now for colleagues to sustain the fantasy that it can be managed and controlled. In the absence of trust, dysfunctionality is inevitable.
I agree he has charisma, albeit the "good old Boris - he's a laugh" thing is essentially dead (too many people are wise to it). But even if he is still a draw for voters, Tory MPs need to consider if that's sustainable should he ever get high office again.
No, it's over for Johnson. A few decades of newspaper columns, after-dinner speeches, occasional forays into the discourse, and copious extramarital shagging await. But never again those bright, sunlit uplands.
A third consecutive change of PM in one Parliament would look farcical to the voters and Mordaunt is probably too woke for the membership anyway, you could equally end up with PM Braverman or Badenoch if they go to the final 2
Indeed, you could argue it might hurt the Tories as people of working age are typically out of the house on a Thursday so might as well swing by the polling station given they are wet/cold anyway, whereas pensioners can legitimately turn on the central heating and stay at home all day. But there doesn't seem to be evidence either way, and I suspect it's negligible.
https://x.com/uniteus23/status/1713906947567530003?s=20
Well, what may have been provocative street art in 2019 now looks like a hideous attempt to terrify Jewish kids and - if it is her - she needs banging up, to teach her a lesson
This needs to be stamped out before it all gets worse
Remember that idiot who got a year in jail for putting a rasher of bacon on a mosque door handle?
This is considerably worse, in the circs. To my mind
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67121456
Some chap lost his (complete guess) £250-£500k job because he put his wife's £10 coffee and sandwich on expenses. Ironically, he was a specialist in financial crime.
Please tell.
To think that the actions of Israel has any reflection whatsoever on Jewish people (adults and especially children) elsewhere is an extreme form of tribal collectivist thinking.
The sane majority have far too many of these people amongst us.
BUT STILL.
This isn't complex: don't lie.
Finance people are typically paid very well, and if they are willing to lie to gain a £20 advantage, what might they be prepared to do if £200k (or £20m) was on the line.
R&W: 61-36
Deltapoll: 63-32
We Think: 59-35
Opinium: 60-34
YouGov: 62-32
Techne: 62-32
Savanta: 59-35
2019 election: 48-47
Figures from earlier this year revealed that 61% of prisons were overcrowded.
The justice secretary is due to set out details of his plan for easing pressure in Parliament on Monday afternoon.
Alex Chalk has already said he wants some offenders to do community work rather than short stints in prison."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67116658
If Bell was funny, he might actually get away with such beahviour.
Is there a way back? He spent twenty years manoeuvring his way to the top to find the job he craved and desired wasn't what he expected or wanted. He'll be 60 next June - could he find a "safe" seat in a midterm by-election, much as Portillo did in 1999? Would he want it?
An absolute classic in sending a message to the rest of your staff, though. Will probably result in a noticeable drop in expense claims over the next few years.
Lots of stress. People looking to unwind. It was wrong, especially given what others were going to through. Deeply sorry it occurred.
But, like taking a corner faster than you should, you really need quicksilver instincts to do that successfully. And a combination of the Big C, advancing years and a new baby blurred those instincts fatally.
There's also this notion of the right to offend and the right to be offended. It's my experience those who espouse the former aren't too happy when confronted with the latter.