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How Corbyn could give the Mayoralty to the Tories – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    "Nietzsche disdained the multitudes and thought that it was superior persons who should seek power, admittedly not in the political field. What happened, however, was that huge numbers of people sought power as the only transcendent good; and given the normal distribution of most human qualities such as talent, it was inevitable that most people who sought (and achieved) power were mediocrities. In other words, the decline of religion, far from conducing to an age of personal and artistic superiority, as Nietzsche hoped, conduced to the very opposite, the flowering (if I may be allowed what seems like an oxymoron) of mediocrity."

    https://www.takimag.com/article/the-flowering-of-mediocrity/
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Carnyx said:

    O/T but not a nice thing to do. The difference between reporting one works 15 hours 59 min 59 seconds, and 16 hours ...

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/sep/08/dwp-stops-womans-benefits-after-she-said-she-worked-one-second-over-limit

    This is the problem with the benefits system.

    It changes the system from supporting those who need it, to saying to people who can work that they're "not allowed" to work more than 16 hours "or they'll lose their benefits".

    It also leads to a lot of people working for cash businesses which can put down their working hours as 15 then pay cash in hand the rest of the time and they can then keep their benefits and employer doesn't need to pay Employer NICs.

    Cliff edges should never exist.
    The problem here is jobsworths with read only minds

    Instructional video on flipping to learn mode - https://youtu.be/2t_wrtyxFp8?si=YcSqTmTFyS9kQqRu
    More than that. They daren't correct the issue even when it is reported. So, higher levels ...
  • Selebian said:

    MattW said:

    We need to remember that Susan Hall only has any chance at all because the Conservative Government changed the voting system to FPTP to give themselves that chance.

    I do find it strange when you use that kind of an excuse

    Just collect more votes
    The Cons didn't like the previous need to collect the majority of votes?

    image

    Of course, under AV it might turn out that the cafe is indeed the majority choice, because the pubs are all very different, which is the beauty of AV.

    I have concerns about pure PR for parliament, with party lists dominating etc, lack of direct link to representative, but that doesn't applywhen you are electing one named mayor.
    The fact is we shouldn't even be discussing the voting system with labour out of sight and a London labour mayor in the offing but it is clear he is not as popular as many thought and it does seem ULEZ is not helping
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    TimS said:

    Selebian said:

    MattW said:

    We need to remember that Susan Hall only has any chance at all because the Conservative Government changed the voting system to FPTP to give themselves that chance.

    I do find it strange when you use that kind of an excuse

    Just collect more votes
    The Cons didn't like the previous need to collect the majority of votes?

    image

    Of course, under AV it might turn out that the cafe is indeed the majority choice, because the pubs are all very different, which is the beauty of AV.

    I have concerns about pure PR for parliament, with party lists dominating etc, lack of direct link to representative, but that doesn't applywhen you are electing one named mayor.
    The same old straw man about PR.

    Single Transferable Vote! More local representation than FPTP. No party list. No safe seats. Easier to kick out an MP who's not working hard.
    Yes, absolutely. I have concerns about pure PR for parliament, but there are plenty of alternatives that are pretty close to proportional and at least as good as FPTP on other measures.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    OT.

    Sadly after the discussions yesterday about helicopter safety, a chopper has gone down in the Gulf en route to a rig off UAE. No passengers but two crew missing.

    It's still some way off, but EVTOL solutions will probably replace helicopters for short range travel quite soon - and range will steadily increase.
    https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/evtol-with-a-620-mile-range

    They are likely to be much, much safer since they will be failure tolerant in ways helicopters aren't - and their systems also considerably simpler mechanically, and less prone to failure in the first place.

    A lot of money has recently started going into the sector.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Government planning failure - it's not as though they weren't warned, several times and well in advance.

    ‘Biggest clean energy disaster in years’: UK auction secures no offshore windfarms
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/08/biggest-clean-energy-disaster-in-years-uk-auction-secures-no-offshore-windfarms
  • Impeachment trial of Texas state Attorney General Ken Paxton - Day 4

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Gl-2W2uc9k
  • Well.


  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    edited September 2023
    kle4 said:

    If Hall wins, there will be a lot of hysteria about FPTP and calls for Starmer to introduce PR for Westminster.

    You say hysteria I say justifiable rage!
    If Hall wins, and it's a ridiculous if but let's ride with it, then it'll be because Hall attracted more votes than any other candidate.

    If that happens, she'd deserve the win.

    Don't blame the system, just win more votes.
    I think the pretext to moving to FPTP for mayoralties was weak, but it's not like there was something sacred about the supplemental vote approach.
    Labour chose the supplemental vote system to protect them from a third-party challenger*. So it's swings and roundabouts for the Tories to scrap it and choose the voting system that most favours them.

    If Labour want to be genuinely reforming in a way that sticks, then they would have to look beyond their own self-interest.

    * It is, of course, hilarious that it failed to do so at the first attempt in London, but, still.
  • Georgia DA Fani Willis has written to Jim Jordan about his efforts to, ahem, interfere in her investigation of Trump.
    It's absolutely delicious: politically, legally, and sarcastically.
    Nine pages, worth reading all of them: https://www.politico.com/f/?id...8a-711d-d776-a3ce-f7fde7fa0000
  • Kyiv Post: A White House Divided on Russia and Ukraine?

    https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/21404

    "Sullivan’s claim that he did not even know about the Track II negotiations with the Kremlin might have been reassuring, except for one problem: he lied. We now know that he had been thoroughly briefed about all the details of the meeting that Graham and his two “useful idiots” held with Lavrov on April 24 in New York.

    "Finally, the most important thing: The above-mentioned published statements by Graham correspond closely with the concept of the war in Ukraine that both Sullivan and CIA director William Burns had been championing within the US administration for a year and a half. Not once have either of these two officials called for the return of all occupied territories to Ukraine, let alone uttered the words “Victory for Ukraine.”

    "For them, America’s objective in this major European war is not for Ukraine to win but to assure that Russia is not defeated. Devoted to this goal, they have delayed the delivery to Ukraine of weapons that are essential if it is to achieve a decisive victory, and even for its survival as a state.

    "Ukrainians are dying today because the Biden administration, paralyzed by the Burns-Sullivan philosophy of appeasement, refuses to act."
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986

    Well.


    Hordes of passengers nervously waiting to get out of mortal danger and into the safe haven of the aeroplane fuselage.
  • Sunil hasn't posted his only two posts yet, has the bot been disabled?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986

    kle4 said:

    If Hall wins, there will be a lot of hysteria about FPTP and calls for Starmer to introduce PR for Westminster.

    You say hysteria I say justifiable rage!
    If Hall wins, and it's a ridiculous if but let's ride with it, then it'll be because Hall attracted more votes than any other candidate.

    If that happens, she'd deserve the win.

    Don't blame the system, just win more votes.
    I think the pretext to moving to FPTP for mayoralties was weak, but it's not like there was something sacred about the supplemental vote approach.
    Labour chose the supplemental vote system to protect them from a third-party challenger*. So it's swings and roundabouts for the Tories to scrap it and choose the voting system that most favours them.

    If Labour want to be genuinely reforming in a way that sticks, then they would have to look beyond their own self-interest.

    * It is, of course, hilarious that it failed to do so at the first attempt in London, but, still.
    This is the problem at the root of any voting reform where the politicians are in charge. Any change, or maintenance of the status quo, favours one set of political parties. Credit to the SNP they are the only party in the UK who have a policy position on voting reform that is counter to their own self-interest (something that's always surprised me but perhaps dates from back when FPTP worked against them, and it would now look too self-serving to change position).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,630
    edited September 2023
    I think we all know what this means.

    ***GRABS POPCORN***

    Georgia grand jury recommended charging three US senators

    A Georgia special grand jury recommended charges against former US senators, who prosecutors did not ultimately indict.

    The panel was investigating Donald Trump's alleged efforts to reverse election results in the state.

    The jury had voted to recommend indictments against former senators Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue and South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham.None were charged by District Attorney Fani Willis last month.

    The unredacted report, released on Friday, is the clearest picture yet of the secret panel's thinking as they investigated whether Mr Trump and his allies broke the law in Georgia during the 2020 election.

    The special purpose grand jury concluded its work this spring but its report had only been partially released until now.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-66755825
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited September 2023

    Impeachment trial of Texas state Attorney General Ken Paxton - Day 4

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Gl-2W2uc9k

    Apparently it could last weeks?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986

    Kyiv Post: A White House Divided on Russia and Ukraine?

    https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/21404

    "Sullivan’s claim that he did not even know about the Track II negotiations with the Kremlin might have been reassuring, except for one problem: he lied. We now know that he had been thoroughly briefed about all the details of the meeting that Graham and his two “useful idiots” held with Lavrov on April 24 in New York.

    "Finally, the most important thing: The above-mentioned published statements by Graham correspond closely with the concept of the war in Ukraine that both Sullivan and CIA director William Burns had been championing within the US administration for a year and a half. Not once have either of these two officials called for the return of all occupied territories to Ukraine, let alone uttered the words “Victory for Ukraine.”

    "For them, America’s objective in this major European war is not for Ukraine to win but to assure that Russia is not defeated. Devoted to this goal, they have delayed the delivery to Ukraine of weapons that are essential if it is to achieve a decisive victory, and even for its survival as a state.

    "Ukrainians are dying today because the Biden administration, paralyzed by the Burns-Sullivan philosophy of appeasement, refuses to act."

    The American situation is worrying. If Trump reaches the White House it's more worrying still.

    Except perhaps in one way. If the US were to disengage completely from the conflict, as opposed to attempting to dictate Ukraine's action in the war, then I do wonder if the European powers might be in a position to help Ukraine win anyway. Is Russia's conventional military now that much more powerful than a Ukraine supplied by the UK, France, Germany, Sweden and the rest of Europe? And Macron would be very keen to demonstrate strategic autonomy. "Very well, alone".
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    I’m going to vote for Rob Blackie and even I don’t believe he’s going to get 16%. This poll seems dubious. I think it’s just too far out, it’s not an election people focus on. Minds are still to be made up.
  • TimS said:

    kle4 said:

    If Hall wins, there will be a lot of hysteria about FPTP and calls for Starmer to introduce PR for Westminster.

    You say hysteria I say justifiable rage!
    If Hall wins, and it's a ridiculous if but let's ride with it, then it'll be because Hall attracted more votes than any other candidate.

    If that happens, she'd deserve the win.

    Don't blame the system, just win more votes.
    I think the pretext to moving to FPTP for mayoralties was weak, but it's not like there was something sacred about the supplemental vote approach.
    Labour chose the supplemental vote system to protect them from a third-party challenger*. So it's swings and roundabouts for the Tories to scrap it and choose the voting system that most favours them.

    If Labour want to be genuinely reforming in a way that sticks, then they would have to look beyond their own self-interest.

    * It is, of course, hilarious that it failed to do so at the first attempt in London, but, still.
    This is the problem at the root of any voting reform where the politicians are in charge. Any change, or maintenance of the status quo, favours one set of political parties. Credit to the SNP they are the only party in the UK who have a policy position on voting reform that is counter to their own self-interest (something that's always surprised me but perhaps dates from back when FPTP worked against them, and it would now look too self-serving to change position).
    The precedent set by Boris Johnson - in abolishing the Supplemental Vote for mayors without a Parliamentary vote - is a gold-plated gift for PR absolutist like me. It has set the precedent that the Government can change electoral Law by a mere Order in Council. So, when we eventually get a House of Commons willing to vote in favour of a sensible voting system (i.e. STV!) then the Government will be able to force it through in a couple of hours. No debate, no referendum, no posturing, just a bit of admin. Come the day. Lord, come the day!!
  • TimS said:

    Selebian said:

    MattW said:

    We need to remember that Susan Hall only has any chance at all because the Conservative Government changed the voting system to FPTP to give themselves that chance.

    I do find it strange when you use that kind of an excuse

    Just collect more votes
    The Cons didn't like the previous need to collect the majority of votes?

    image

    Of course, under AV it might turn out that the cafe is indeed the majority choice, because the pubs are all very different, which is the beauty of AV.

    I have concerns about pure PR for parliament, with party lists dominating etc, lack of direct link to representative, but that doesn't applywhen you are electing one named mayor.
    The same old straw man about PR.

    Single Transferable Vote! More local representation than FPTP. No party list. No safe seats. Easier to kick out an MP who's not working hard.
    On election night, I like to stay up until the bulk of the results are in. However, under STV this would mean going four nights without sleep.

    Surplus votes. Well dodgy.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    edited September 2023
    TimS said:

    kle4 said:

    If Hall wins, there will be a lot of hysteria about FPTP and calls for Starmer to introduce PR for Westminster.

    You say hysteria I say justifiable rage!
    If Hall wins, and it's a ridiculous if but let's ride with it, then it'll be because Hall attracted more votes than any other candidate.

    If that happens, she'd deserve the win.

    Don't blame the system, just win more votes.
    I think the pretext to moving to FPTP for mayoralties was weak, but it's not like there was something sacred about the supplemental vote approach.
    Labour chose the supplemental vote system to protect them from a third-party challenger*. So it's swings and roundabouts for the Tories to scrap it and choose the voting system that most favours them.

    If Labour want to be genuinely reforming in a way that sticks, then they would have to look beyond their own self-interest.

    * It is, of course, hilarious that it failed to do so at the first attempt in London, but, still.
    This is the problem at the root of any voting reform where the politicians are in charge. Any change, or maintenance of the status quo, favours one set of political parties. Credit to the SNP they are the only party in the UK who have a policy position on voting reform that is counter to their own self-interest (something that's always surprised me but perhaps dates from back when FPTP worked against them, and it would now look too self-serving to change position).
    Deleted as talking nonsense - too late on a Friday afternoon.
  • Map of the 2021 results by ward;


    The underlying article makes sense as well;

    https://www.ft.com/content/a1b1216c-d8d0-4ba1-8129-0da4949f1923
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Friday afternoon quiz

    I was questioning the Wythall wine dude and marvelling at the longevity and stasis of his family, living in the same house for five centuries

    He said “that’s nothing, there’s a Scudamore living in a house down the road and they’ve been there since at least 1100. Almost a thousand years”

    That must be close to the world record. For a non-royal family occupying the same house for the longest time. Tho I remember once reading - and my memory might be faulty - about a family, plus house, that claimed to date back before
    1066. Anglo Saxon origins

    Is there an even older lineage anywhere? Japan?

    Yep Japan.

    The oldest family run business in the world. Hoshi Ryokan. A hotel run by the same family since 718AD

    https://famoushotels.org/news/hoshi-ryokan-the-worlds-oldest-guest-house
    But that’s a business not a home. Tho I guess if they’ve lived in their own Ryokan that’s definitely the winner

    Berkeley Castle has been the home of the Berkeley family since probably the late 11th century.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkeley_Castle
  • TimS said:

    Kyiv Post: A White House Divided on Russia and Ukraine?

    https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/21404

    "Sullivan’s claim that he did not even know about the Track II negotiations with the Kremlin might have been reassuring, except for one problem: he lied. We now know that he had been thoroughly briefed about all the details of the meeting that Graham and his two “useful idiots” held with Lavrov on April 24 in New York.

    "Finally, the most important thing: The above-mentioned published statements by Graham correspond closely with the concept of the war in Ukraine that both Sullivan and CIA director William Burns had been championing within the US administration for a year and a half. Not once have either of these two officials called for the return of all occupied territories to Ukraine, let alone uttered the words “Victory for Ukraine.”

    "For them, America’s objective in this major European war is not for Ukraine to win but to assure that Russia is not defeated. Devoted to this goal, they have delayed the delivery to Ukraine of weapons that are essential if it is to achieve a decisive victory, and even for its survival as a state.

    "Ukrainians are dying today because the Biden administration, paralyzed by the Burns-Sullivan philosophy of appeasement, refuses to act."

    The American situation is worrying. If Trump reaches the White House it's more worrying still.

    Except perhaps in one way. If the US were to disengage completely from the conflict, as opposed to attempting to dictate Ukraine's action in the war, then I do wonder if the European powers might be in a position to help Ukraine win anyway. Is Russia's conventional military now that much more powerful than a Ukraine supplied by the UK, France, Germany, Sweden and the rest of Europe? And Macron would be very keen to demonstrate strategic autonomy. "Very well, alone".
    Russia - and perhaps China - will just perform the same split-and-divide tactic they are using in America. Allow useful idiots to shill for them, to say that the US is correct, and Ukraine does not stand a chance now. Along with a few sprinkled nuclear threats, as ever.

    This could be a pivotal moment for the world order. Might the western, relatively liberal view of the world come screeching to a halt?
  • TimS said:

    Selebian said:

    MattW said:

    We need to remember that Susan Hall only has any chance at all because the Conservative Government changed the voting system to FPTP to give themselves that chance.

    I do find it strange when you use that kind of an excuse

    Just collect more votes
    The Cons didn't like the previous need to collect the majority of votes?

    image

    Of course, under AV it might turn out that the cafe is indeed the majority choice, because the pubs are all very different, which is the beauty of AV.

    I have concerns about pure PR for parliament, with party lists dominating etc, lack of direct link to representative, but that doesn't applywhen you are electing one named mayor.
    The same old straw man about PR.

    Single Transferable Vote! More local representation than FPTP. No party list. No safe seats. Easier to kick out an MP who's not working hard.
    On election night, I like to stay up until the bulk of the results are in. However, under STV this would mean going four nights without sleep.

    Surplus votes. Well dodgy.
    Did you watch the Irish results on RTE over the weekend after polling day? Really impressive analysis of *why* X's votes were likely to transfer to Y, and what that would mean for Z whose powerbase was in a different part of the constituency etc. Irish Elections are like 5 Day Test Matches, with British elections being like the T100, i.e. OK for those wanting cheap thrills rather than beauty.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986

    TimS said:

    kle4 said:

    If Hall wins, there will be a lot of hysteria about FPTP and calls for Starmer to introduce PR for Westminster.

    You say hysteria I say justifiable rage!
    If Hall wins, and it's a ridiculous if but let's ride with it, then it'll be because Hall attracted more votes than any other candidate.

    If that happens, she'd deserve the win.

    Don't blame the system, just win more votes.
    I think the pretext to moving to FPTP for mayoralties was weak, but it's not like there was something sacred about the supplemental vote approach.
    Labour chose the supplemental vote system to protect them from a third-party challenger*. So it's swings and roundabouts for the Tories to scrap it and choose the voting system that most favours them.

    If Labour want to be genuinely reforming in a way that sticks, then they would have to look beyond their own self-interest.

    * It is, of course, hilarious that it failed to do so at the first attempt in London, but, still.
    This is the problem at the root of any voting reform where the politicians are in charge. Any change, or maintenance of the status quo, favours one set of political parties. Credit to the SNP they are the only party in the UK who have a policy position on voting reform that is counter to their own self-interest (something that's always surprised me but perhaps dates from back when FPTP worked against them, and it would now look too self-serving to change position).
    The precedent set by Boris Johnson - in abolishing the Supplemental Vote for mayors without a Parliamentary vote - is a gold-plated gift for PR absolutist like me. It has set the precedent that the Government can change electoral Law by a mere Order in Council. So, when we eventually get a House of Commons willing to vote in favour of a sensible voting system (i.e. STV!) then the Government will be able to force it through in a couple of hours. No debate, no referendum, no posturing, just a bit of admin. Come the day. Lord, come the day!!
    Good point. Hadn't thought of that. Labour minority and 60 Lib Dem seats here we come.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    edited September 2023

    TimS said:

    Selebian said:

    MattW said:

    We need to remember that Susan Hall only has any chance at all because the Conservative Government changed the voting system to FPTP to give themselves that chance.

    I do find it strange when you use that kind of an excuse

    Just collect more votes
    The Cons didn't like the previous need to collect the majority of votes?

    image

    Of course, under AV it might turn out that the cafe is indeed the majority choice, because the pubs are all very different, which is the beauty of AV.

    I have concerns about pure PR for parliament, with party lists dominating etc, lack of direct link to representative, but that doesn't applywhen you are electing one named mayor.
    The same old straw man about PR.

    Single Transferable Vote! More local representation than FPTP. No party list. No safe seats. Easier to kick out an MP who's not working hard.
    On election night, I like to stay up until the bulk of the results are in. However, under STV this would mean going four nights without sleep.

    Surplus votes. Well dodgy.
    Did you watch the Irish results on RTE over the weekend after polling day? Really impressive analysis of *why* X's votes were likely to transfer to Y, and what that would mean for Z whose powerbase was in a different part of the constituency etc. Irish Elections are like 5 Day Test Matches, with British elections being like the T100, i.e. OK for those wanting cheap thrills rather than beauty.
    I'd say FPTP is more 50 overs. Takes similar time. The equivalent of T100 is the immediate tallies you get in presidential runoffs or referenda.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986

    TimS said:

    Kyiv Post: A White House Divided on Russia and Ukraine?

    https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/21404

    "Sullivan’s claim that he did not even know about the Track II negotiations with the Kremlin might have been reassuring, except for one problem: he lied. We now know that he had been thoroughly briefed about all the details of the meeting that Graham and his two “useful idiots” held with Lavrov on April 24 in New York.

    "Finally, the most important thing: The above-mentioned published statements by Graham correspond closely with the concept of the war in Ukraine that both Sullivan and CIA director William Burns had been championing within the US administration for a year and a half. Not once have either of these two officials called for the return of all occupied territories to Ukraine, let alone uttered the words “Victory for Ukraine.”

    "For them, America’s objective in this major European war is not for Ukraine to win but to assure that Russia is not defeated. Devoted to this goal, they have delayed the delivery to Ukraine of weapons that are essential if it is to achieve a decisive victory, and even for its survival as a state.

    "Ukrainians are dying today because the Biden administration, paralyzed by the Burns-Sullivan philosophy of appeasement, refuses to act."

    The American situation is worrying. If Trump reaches the White House it's more worrying still.

    Except perhaps in one way. If the US were to disengage completely from the conflict, as opposed to attempting to dictate Ukraine's action in the war, then I do wonder if the European powers might be in a position to help Ukraine win anyway. Is Russia's conventional military now that much more powerful than a Ukraine supplied by the UK, France, Germany, Sweden and the rest of Europe? And Macron would be very keen to demonstrate strategic autonomy. "Very well, alone".
    Russia - and perhaps China - will just perform the same split-and-divide tactic they are using in America. Allow useful idiots to shill for them, to say that the US is correct, and Ukraine does not stand a chance now. Along with a few sprinkled nuclear threats, as ever.

    This could be a pivotal moment for the world order. Might the western, relatively liberal view of the world come screeching to a halt?
    Ukraine getting and declaring a nuclear capability shortly after a Trump-inspired cutoff of military aid seems fairly likely.
  • Carnyx said:

    O/T but not a nice thing to do. The difference between reporting one works 15 hours 59 min 59 seconds, and 16 hours ...

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/sep/08/dwp-stops-womans-benefits-after-she-said-she-worked-one-second-over-limit

    This is the problem with the benefits system.

    It changes the system from supporting those who need it, to saying to people who can work that they're "not allowed" to work more than 16 hours "or they'll lose their benefits".

    It also leads to a lot of people working for cash businesses which can put down their working hours as 15 then pay cash in hand the rest of the time and they can then keep their benefits and employer doesn't need to pay Employer NICs.

    Cliff edges should never exist.
    If someone on 16 hours a week moves to a 40 hour week, we should give them more money. On top of not withdrawing benefit.
    Agreed. That's the UBI/negative income tax solution, benefits go to everyone so don't get withdrawn. Then a single, flat, tax rate without cliff edges, that everyone pays consistently.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Related but different topic to oldest continuously-resident family home: a list of the oldest family firms still going https://www.griequity.com/resources/industryandissues/familybusiness/oldestinworld.html

    Some interesting names whose heritage I was unaware of (e.g. Zildjian Cymbals).
  • Liz Truss’ sacked chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng speaks of ‘emptiness’ after Downing Street
    Kwarteng presided over chaotic ‘mini-budget’ and tells POLITICO about life for ‘adrenaline junkies’ after being in office.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/liz-truss-sacked-chancellor-kwasi-kwarteng-speak-emptiness-downing-street/
  • Map of the 2021 results by ward;


    The underlying article makes sense as well;

    https://www.ft.com/content/a1b1216c-d8d0-4ba1-8129-0da4949f1923

    A Tale of Two Cities?
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,315
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Friday afternoon quiz

    I was questioning the Wythall wine dude and marvelling at the longevity and stasis of his family, living in the same house for five centuries

    He said “that’s nothing, there’s a Scudamore living in a house down the road and they’ve been there since at least 1100. Almost a thousand years”

    That must be close to the world record. For a non-royal family occupying the same house for the longest time. Tho I remember once reading - and my memory might be faulty - about a family, plus house, that claimed to date back before
    1066. Anglo Saxon origins

    Is there an even older lineage anywhere? Japan?

    If it's never been bought or sold since time immemorial the house won't appear on the Land Registry file. But if it receives post it will appear on the Postal Address File. Download both datasets (you'll have to pay I think?) and find those on one but not the other. Have a look at them and pick the rich ones in nice places so you can talk to them without crying. Go to your editor at the Flint Knappers Gazette, tell them you've found a way to talk to poshos whilst doing The State Of This copy, trouser the X thousand and go write some more words ("I was struck by the contrast between this 13th century barn and this Heinz tin. Oh, my country, I weep for you"). There y'go.

    Oh, bear in mind each file will have tens of millions of addresses and some versions of Excel can't(?) handle that.
    You can always just load it into a SQLite database & just issue a few SQL queries in the SQLite CLI.

    (I appreciate that this is probably a niche solution only available to a select few, but that makes everyone else the weird ones as far as I’m concerned!)
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    I find these results very strange:

    https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1700116776041009436?s=20

    60% of Tories in London would consider voting for Corbyn?

    Why? Is that literally just a "if he could be Khan and the Tory couldn't" vote?
  • I just do not see Corbyn standing and letting in the conservative, but the reaction of a likely labour civil war is really rather funny

    And first sighting of escaped prisoner apparently

    We'd be able to expel any residual SWP entryists and their fellow travellers who boast about voting for Jezza on social media.

    And you just know that they won't be keeping quiet about it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    A
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Kyiv Post: A White House Divided on Russia and Ukraine?

    https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/21404

    "Sullivan’s claim that he did not even know about the Track II negotiations with the Kremlin might have been reassuring, except for one problem: he lied. We now know that he had been thoroughly briefed about all the details of the meeting that Graham and his two “useful idiots” held with Lavrov on April 24 in New York.

    "Finally, the most important thing: The above-mentioned published statements by Graham correspond closely with the concept of the war in Ukraine that both Sullivan and CIA director William Burns had been championing within the US administration for a year and a half. Not once have either of these two officials called for the return of all occupied territories to Ukraine, let alone uttered the words “Victory for Ukraine.”

    "For them, America’s objective in this major European war is not for Ukraine to win but to assure that Russia is not defeated. Devoted to this goal, they have delayed the delivery to Ukraine of weapons that are essential if it is to achieve a decisive victory, and even for its survival as a state.

    "Ukrainians are dying today because the Biden administration, paralyzed by the Burns-Sullivan philosophy of appeasement, refuses to act."

    The American situation is worrying. If Trump reaches the White House it's more worrying still.

    Except perhaps in one way. If the US were to disengage completely from the conflict, as opposed to attempting to dictate Ukraine's action in the war, then I do wonder if the European powers might be in a position to help Ukraine win anyway. Is Russia's conventional military now that much more powerful than a Ukraine supplied by the UK, France, Germany, Sweden and the rest of Europe? And Macron would be very keen to demonstrate strategic autonomy. "Very well, alone".
    Russia - and perhaps China - will just perform the same split-and-divide tactic they are using in America. Allow useful idiots to shill for them, to say that the US is correct, and Ukraine does not stand a chance now. Along with a few sprinkled nuclear threats, as ever.

    This could be a pivotal moment for the world order. Might the western, relatively liberal view of the world come screeching to a halt?
    Ukraine getting and declaring a nuclear capability shortly after a Trump-inspired cutoff of military aid seems fairly likely.
    If Trump reached the White House, Zelensky might find “evidence” that Trump was looking for against Biden.

    In which case Trump would probably give Ukraine a couple of Trident missile subs.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    edited September 2023
    Ghedebrav said:

    Related but different topic to oldest continuously-resident family home: a list of the oldest family firms still going https://www.griequity.com/resources/industryandissues/familybusiness/oldestinworld.html

    Some interesting names whose heritage I was unaware of (e.g. Zildjian Cymbals).

    If you want to be depressed about the state of Britain, click on the links. (The page is about 20 years old, I think.)

    The German mittelstands are by and large still trading. So are the Japanese family companies and the French vineyards. A good half of the British ones appear to have closed in the last 20 years.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277



    Berkeley Castle has been the home of the Berkeley family since probably the late 11th century.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkeley_Castle

    Ooh. Nice one; well done

    Even better, the Berkeleys date back to the Anglo-Saxons. A pre-Norman lineage! - from this guy: Eadnoth the Constable





    “The Berkeley family descends in the male line from Robert Fitzharding (d. 1170), 1st feudal baron of Berkeley, Gloucestershire, reputedly the son of Harding of Bristol, the son of Eadnoth the Constable (Alnod), a high official under King Edward the Confessor.[4] His wife was Eva fitz Harding.”
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Very interesting, particularly the Turkish involvement.

    BREAKING 👀👀👀

    🇷🇴🇺🇸🇺🇦 "Romania and the USA will conduct exercises with Ukraine in the Black Sea and the Danube delta", — Press service of the Romanian Navy

    Military personnel from 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇫🇷 France, 🇬🇧 Great Britain and 🇹🇷 Turkiye will also take part in the exercises.

    https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1700170735514238991?s=20
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    148grss said:

    I find these results very strange:

    https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1700116776041009436?s=20

    60% of Tories in London would consider voting for Corbyn?

    Why? Is that literally just a "if he could be Khan and the Tory couldn't" vote?

    Having two 'yes' categories (at different levels of certainty) but only one 'no' category doesn't pass the sniff test, for me.

    'somewhat considering' voting or Corbyn is an interesting state, when compared to 'don't know'.
  • Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Friday afternoon quiz

    I was questioning the Wythall wine dude and marvelling at the longevity and stasis of his family, living in the same house for five centuries

    He said “that’s nothing, there’s a Scudamore living in a house down the road and they’ve been there since at least 1100. Almost a thousand years”

    That must be close to the world record. For a non-royal family occupying the same house for the longest time. Tho I remember once reading - and my memory might be faulty - about a family, plus house, that claimed to date back before
    1066. Anglo Saxon origins

    Is there an even older lineage anywhere? Japan?

    Yep Japan.

    The oldest family run business in the world. Hoshi Ryokan. A hotel run by the same family since 718AD

    https://famoushotels.org/news/hoshi-ryokan-the-worlds-oldest-guest-house
    But that’s a business not a home. Tho I guess if they’ve lived in their own Ryokan that’s definitely the winner

    Berkeley Castle has been the home of the Berkeley family since probably the late 11th century.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkeley_Castle
    There are plenty of thoroughly modern magnates who can trace their wealth back to 1066 and its unfortunate aftermath for the English landed classes: Grosvenor, Cecil, Mortimer, Spencer, Cadogan, de Walden etc. It's most unlikely any proprietor from before the conquest could have survived that century with his roof intact, much less another 900 years.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376
    TimS said:

    Sunil hasn't posted his only two posts yet, has the bot been disabled?

    It's a bit tiresome when a poster decides they've got it in for another forum member like this. It seems to happen rather too often on PB.

    Tiresome except when it's Nigel vs Malcolm, which is just fun.
    Malc really does batter Nigel too. In wrasslin terms a squash match.

    Don’t get the thing about Sunil being a hot. He seems an amiable train fanatic to me.

    CHB, on the one hand wants some banned posters back yet wants someone who contributes banned.

    Don’t get it.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    edited September 2023

    TimS said:

    kle4 said:

    If Hall wins, there will be a lot of hysteria about FPTP and calls for Starmer to introduce PR for Westminster.

    You say hysteria I say justifiable rage!
    If Hall wins, and it's a ridiculous if but let's ride with it, then it'll be because Hall attracted more votes than any other candidate.

    If that happens, she'd deserve the win.

    Don't blame the system, just win more votes.
    I think the pretext to moving to FPTP for mayoralties was weak, but it's not like there was something sacred about the supplemental vote approach.
    Labour chose the supplemental vote system to protect them from a third-party challenger*. So it's swings and roundabouts for the Tories to scrap it and choose the voting system that most favours them.

    If Labour want to be genuinely reforming in a way that sticks, then they would have to look beyond their own self-interest.

    * It is, of course, hilarious that it failed to do so at the first attempt in London, but, still.
    This is the problem at the root of any voting reform where the politicians are in charge. Any change, or maintenance of the status quo, favours one set of political parties. Credit to the SNP they are the only party in the UK who have a policy position on voting reform that is counter to their own self-interest (something that's always surprised me but perhaps dates from back when FPTP worked against them, and it would now look too self-serving to change position).
    The precedent set by Boris Johnson - in abolishing the Supplemental Vote for mayors without a Parliamentary vote - is a gold-plated gift for PR absolutist like me. It has set the precedent that the Government can change electoral Law by a mere Order in Council. So, when we eventually get a House of Commons willing to vote in favour of a sensible voting system (i.e. STV!) then the Government will be able to force it through in a couple of hours. No debate, no referendum, no posturing, just a bit of admin. Come the day. Lord, come the day!!
    I don't think that's quite right. The change was made as part of the Elections Act 2022 (Section 13). The Order in Council was required to introduce the change but couldn't have been done without legislation first. Nor could it be reversed or further amended to a different system without a new Act.

    There is, of course, a long history of changing voting systems purely through legislation. Parliament once elected MPs by STV, for example.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Ghedebrav said:

    Related but different topic to oldest continuously-resident family home: a list of the oldest family firms still going https://www.griequity.com/resources/industryandissues/familybusiness/oldestinworld.html

    Some interesting names whose heritage I was unaware of (e.g. Zildjian Cymbals).

    A lot of the US ones seem to be farms which count as a business as they rent land or have a farm shop - I’m sure there are plenty of older European and UK ones in same family that could be counted under the same terms?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    This has probably been covered, but oughtn't Labour be looking to push Khan out?
    He's seriously under polling his Party.
    Someone Else Labour would surely poll better?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    Liz Truss’ sacked chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng speaks of ‘emptiness’ after Downing Street
    Kwarteng presided over chaotic ‘mini-budget’ and tells POLITICO about life for ‘adrenaline junkies’ after being in office.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/liz-truss-sacked-chancellor-kwasi-kwarteng-speak-emptiness-downing-street/

    For a moment then I thought he may have realised the profundity of the Heart Sutra in his spare time.
  • TimS said:

    kle4 said:

    If Hall wins, there will be a lot of hysteria about FPTP and calls for Starmer to introduce PR for Westminster.

    You say hysteria I say justifiable rage!
    If Hall wins, and it's a ridiculous if but let's ride with it, then it'll be because Hall attracted more votes than any other candidate.

    If that happens, she'd deserve the win.

    Don't blame the system, just win more votes.
    I think the pretext to moving to FPTP for mayoralties was weak, but it's not like there was something sacred about the supplemental vote approach.
    Labour chose the supplemental vote system to protect them from a third-party challenger*. So it's swings and roundabouts for the Tories to scrap it and choose the voting system that most favours them.

    If Labour want to be genuinely reforming in a way that sticks, then they would have to look beyond their own self-interest.

    * It is, of course, hilarious that it failed to do so at the first attempt in London, but, still.
    This is the problem at the root of any voting reform where the politicians are in charge. Any change, or maintenance of the status quo, favours one set of political parties. Credit to the SNP they are the only party in the UK who have a policy position on voting reform that is counter to their own self-interest (something that's always surprised me but perhaps dates from back when FPTP worked against them, and it would now look too self-serving to change position).
    The precedent set by Boris Johnson - in abolishing the Supplemental Vote for mayors without a Parliamentary vote - is a gold-plated gift for PR absolutist like me. It has set the precedent that the Government can change electoral Law by a mere Order in Council. So, when we eventually get a House of Commons willing to vote in favour of a sensible voting system (i.e. STV!) then the Government will be able to force it through in a couple of hours. No debate, no referendum, no posturing, just a bit of admin. Come the day. Lord, come the day!!
    Whilst I think Johnson was wrong, there is a world of diffeence between changing the voting system for a subsidiary election and changing it for your own. But then none of the parties seem to care much about democracy these days.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    dixiedean said:

    This has probably been covered, but oughtn't Labour be looking to push Khan out?
    He's seriously under polling his Party.
    Someone Else Labour would surely poll better?

    3rd terms rarely work at any senior level. Best to have a fresh face.
  • TimS said:

    kle4 said:

    If Hall wins, there will be a lot of hysteria about FPTP and calls for Starmer to introduce PR for Westminster.

    You say hysteria I say justifiable rage!
    If Hall wins, and it's a ridiculous if but let's ride with it, then it'll be because Hall attracted more votes than any other candidate.

    If that happens, she'd deserve the win.

    Don't blame the system, just win more votes.
    I think the pretext to moving to FPTP for mayoralties was weak, but it's not like there was something sacred about the supplemental vote approach.
    Labour chose the supplemental vote system to protect them from a third-party challenger*. So it's swings and roundabouts for the Tories to scrap it and choose the voting system that most favours them.

    If Labour want to be genuinely reforming in a way that sticks, then they would have to look beyond their own self-interest.

    * It is, of course, hilarious that it failed to do so at the first attempt in London, but, still.
    This is the problem at the root of any voting reform where the politicians are in charge. Any change, or maintenance of the status quo, favours one set of political parties. Credit to the SNP they are the only party in the UK who have a policy position on voting reform that is counter to their own self-interest (something that's always surprised me but perhaps dates from back when FPTP worked against them, and it would now look too self-serving to change position).
    The precedent set by Boris Johnson - in abolishing the Supplemental Vote for mayors without a Parliamentary vote - is a gold-plated gift for PR absolutist like me. It has set the precedent that the Government can change electoral Law by a mere Order in Council. So, when we eventually get a House of Commons willing to vote in favour of a sensible voting system (i.e. STV!) then the Government will be able to force it through in a couple of hours. No debate, no referendum, no posturing, just a bit of admin. Come the day. Lord, come the day!!
    I don't think that's quite right. The change was made as part of the Elections Act 2022 (Section 13). The Order in Council was required to introduce the change but couldn't have been done without legislation first. Nor could it be reversed or further amended to a different system without a new Act.

    There is, of course, a long history of changing voting systems purely through legislation. Parliament once elected MPs by STV, for example.
    Oxford, Cambridge and Combined Universities between 1920 and 1946. It enabled comedians like AP Herbert to beat well-meaning plodders like GDH Cole.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    5th day in a row with temperatures over 30C in London. We should end up with 7 days by Sunday. Possibly just squeezing out a final 8th on Monday though that's unlikely.

    Before this year the record number of consecutive 30s in September was 3. The record for consecutive 30+ in any month is still held by the June/July 1976 spell, followed by the record breaking August 2003. But this I think ends up third longest of all time. In Autumn.

    Yesterday's mean Central England Temperature was 23.3C. The warmest 24 hours in September history and one of the warmest 24 hours in any month in the UK.

    France has has a week of mid to high 30s. Widely record breaking and completely unprecedented for the time of year.

    But next week it's back to Autumn, folks. Will come as a bit of a shock
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Friday afternoon quiz

    I was questioning the Wythall wine dude and marvelling at the longevity and stasis of his family, living in the same house for five centuries

    He said “that’s nothing, there’s a Scudamore living in a house down the road and they’ve been there since at least 1100. Almost a thousand years”

    That must be close to the world record. For a non-royal family occupying the same house for the longest time. Tho I remember once reading - and my memory might be faulty - about a family, plus house, that claimed to date back before
    1066. Anglo Saxon origins

    Is there an even older lineage anywhere? Japan?

    Yep Japan.

    The oldest family run business in the world. Hoshi Ryokan. A hotel run by the same family since 718AD

    https://famoushotels.org/news/hoshi-ryokan-the-worlds-oldest-guest-house
    But that’s a business not a home. Tho I guess if they’ve lived in their own Ryokan that’s definitely the winner

    Berkeley Castle has been the home of the Berkeley family since probably the late 11th century.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkeley_Castle
    There are plenty of thoroughly modern magnates who can trace their wealth back to 1066 and its unfortunate aftermath for the English landed classes: Grosvenor, Cecil, Mortimer, Spencer, Cadogan, de Walden etc. It's most unlikely any proprietor from before the conquest could have survived that century with his roof intact, much less another 900 years.
    Which is kinda my point. If there IS a UK family that can trace continuous occupation of the same home back to pre-1066 that would be an astonishing survival

    Berkeleys come close but don’t quite do it. They only “moved” to Berkeley Castle after the Conquest, even tho they have Anglo-Saxon forebears

    Royals don’t count. Indeed even if they did count they wouldn’t make the cut. None of their present homes are THAT old
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    edited September 2023

    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Friday afternoon quiz

    I was questioning the Wythall wine dude and marvelling at the longevity and stasis of his family, living in the same house for five centuries

    He said “that’s nothing, there’s a Scudamore living in a house down the road and they’ve been there since at least 1100. Almost a thousand years”

    That must be close to the world record. For a non-royal family occupying the same house for the longest time. Tho I remember once reading - and my memory might be faulty - about a family, plus house, that claimed to date back before
    1066. Anglo Saxon origins

    Is there an even older lineage anywhere? Japan?

    Yep Japan.

    The oldest family run business in the world. Hoshi Ryokan. A hotel run by the same family since 718AD

    https://famoushotels.org/news/hoshi-ryokan-the-worlds-oldest-guest-house
    But that’s a business not a home. Tho I guess if they’ve lived in their own Ryokan that’s definitely the winner

    Berkeley Castle has been the home of the Berkeley family since probably the late 11th century.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkeley_Castle
    There are plenty of thoroughly modern magnates who can trace their wealth back to 1066 and its unfortunate aftermath for the English landed classes: Grosvenor, Cecil, Mortimer, Spencer, Cadogan, de Walden etc. It's most unlikely any proprietor from before the conquest could have survived that century with his roof intact, much less another 900 years.
    No doubt quite a few families with originally Norman surnames can trace a line back to the 11th century, but probably a lot fewer than people imagine, and where there is a traceable line it will normally be a cadet line, the senior line almost invariably having ended in heiresses.

    The male-line ancestry of the Grosvenor Dukes of Westminster, for example, can be traced back with certainty only to the 13th century in Cheshire, with a possible earlier member at the end of the 12th.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    TimS said:

    5th day in a row with temperatures over 30C in London. We should end up with 7 days by Sunday. Possibly just squeezing out a final 8th on Monday though that's unlikely.

    Before this year the record number of consecutive 30s in September was 3. The record for consecutive 30+ in any month is still held by the June/July 1976 spell, followed by the record breaking August 2003. But this I think ends up third longest of all time. In Autumn.

    Yesterday's mean Central England Temperature was 23.3C. The warmest 24 hours in September history and one of the warmest 24 hours in any month in the UK.

    France has has a week of mid to high 30s. Widely record breaking and completely unprecedented for the time of year.

    But next week it's back to Autumn, folks. Will come as a bit of a shock

    The Wythall wine makers are loving it. Told me they’ve got a bumper crop of grapes and this late burst of intense sun is perfectly timed

    It’s putting the kibosh on my hiking plans, however. Was gonna trek around the Forest of Dean. It’s simply too hot and humid. Feels like 35C
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    dixiedean said:

    This has probably been covered, but oughtn't Labour be looking to push Khan out?
    He's seriously under polling his Party.
    Someone Else Labour would surely poll better?

    Labour needs to have a word with Khan. They could lose the mayoralty with him. Tsk
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    edited September 2023
    TimS said:

    kle4 said:

    If Hall wins, there will be a lot of hysteria about FPTP and calls for Starmer to introduce PR for Westminster.

    You say hysteria I say justifiable rage!
    If Hall wins, and it's a ridiculous if but let's ride with it, then it'll be because Hall attracted more votes than any other candidate.

    If that happens, she'd deserve the win.

    Don't blame the system, just win more votes.
    I think the pretext to moving to FPTP for mayoralties was weak, but it's not like there was something sacred about the supplemental vote approach.
    Labour chose the supplemental vote system to protect them from a third-party challenger*. So it's swings and roundabouts for the Tories to scrap it and choose the voting system that most favours them.

    If Labour want to be genuinely reforming in a way that sticks, then they would have to look beyond their own self-interest.

    * It is, of course, hilarious that it failed to do so at the first attempt in London, but, still.
    This is the problem at the root of any voting reform where the politicians are in charge. Any change, or maintenance of the status quo, favours one set of political parties. Credit to the SNP they are the only party in the UK who have a policy position on voting reform that is counter to their own self-interest (something that's always surprised me but perhaps dates from back when FPTP worked against them, and it would now look too self-serving to change position).
    I think Plaid also support PR while benefiting (hugely) from FPTP. Sinn Fein too, although of course most of the elections they stand in use STV. It’s just Westminster elections, that they’d rather not exist at all, where they are standing under, and benefitting from, FPTP.

    I *think* the UUP want to keep FPTP for Westminster elections, even though they’d benefit from PR. As you suggest with the SNP, this is perhaps because they supported FPTP when it benefited them and just haven’t changed that position since FPTP stopped benefiting them.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    TimS said:

    kle4 said:

    If Hall wins, there will be a lot of hysteria about FPTP and calls for Starmer to introduce PR for Westminster.

    You say hysteria I say justifiable rage!
    If Hall wins, and it's a ridiculous if but let's ride with it, then it'll be because Hall attracted more votes than any other candidate.

    If that happens, she'd deserve the win.

    Don't blame the system, just win more votes.
    I think the pretext to moving to FPTP for mayoralties was weak, but it's not like there was something sacred about the supplemental vote approach.
    Labour chose the supplemental vote system to protect them from a third-party challenger*. So it's swings and roundabouts for the Tories to scrap it and choose the voting system that most favours them.

    If Labour want to be genuinely reforming in a way that sticks, then they would have to look beyond their own self-interest.

    * It is, of course, hilarious that it failed to do so at the first attempt in London, but, still.
    This is the problem at the root of any voting reform where the politicians are in charge. Any change, or maintenance of the status quo, favours one set of political parties. Credit to the SNP they are the only party in the UK who have a policy position on voting reform that is counter to their own self-interest (something that's always surprised me but perhaps dates from back when FPTP worked against them, and it would now look too self-serving to change position).
    I think Plaid also support PR while benefiting (hugely) from FPTP. Sinn Fein too, although of course most of the elections they stand in use STV. It’s just Westminster elections, that they’d rather not exist at all, where they are standing under, and benefitting from, FPTP.

    I *think* the UUP want to keep FPTP for Westminster elections, even though they’d benefit from PR. As you suggest with the SNP, this is perhaps because they supported FPTP when it benefited them and just haven’t changed that position since FPTP stopped benefiting them.
    Conasider also the Labour and (for Holyrood anyway) LD policies - desperate to keep some hold of power in Edinburgh and Cardiff, so went for non-FPTP, but only too happy to have it for Westminster.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    TimS said:

    5th day in a row with temperatures over 30C in London. We should end up with 7 days by Sunday. Possibly just squeezing out a final 8th on Monday though that's unlikely.

    Before this year the record number of consecutive 30s in September was 3. The record for consecutive 30+ in any month is still held by the June/July 1976 spell, followed by the record breaking August 2003. But this I think ends up third longest of all time. In Autumn.

    Yesterday's mean Central England Temperature was 23.3C. The warmest 24 hours in September history and one of the warmest 24 hours in any month in the UK.

    France has has a week of mid to high 30s. Widely record breaking and completely unprecedented for the time of year.

    But next week it's back to Autumn, folks. Will come as a bit of a shock

    Early and mid September are summer, not autumn. And the heat is grim. A cool down cannot come soon enough. I have barely slept all week.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/seasons/autumn/when-does-autumn-start
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    TimS said:

    5th day in a row with temperatures over 30C in London. We should end up with 7 days by Sunday. Possibly just squeezing out a final 8th on Monday though that's unlikely.

    Before this year the record number of consecutive 30s in September was 3. The record for consecutive 30+ in any month is still held by the June/July 1976 spell, followed by the record breaking August 2003. But this I think ends up third longest of all time. In Autumn.

    Yesterday's mean Central England Temperature was 23.3C. The warmest 24 hours in September history and one of the warmest 24 hours in any month in the UK.

    France has has a week of mid to high 30s. Widely record breaking and completely unprecedented for the time of year.

    But next week it's back to Autumn, folks. Will come as a bit of a shock

    Early and mid September are summer, not autumn. And the heat is grim. A cool down cannot come soon enough. I have barely slept all week.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/seasons/autumn/when-does-autumn-start
    My plans to install solar powered A/C in the loft conversion look better by the day.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    TimS said:

    5th day in a row with temperatures over 30C in London. We should end up with 7 days by Sunday. Possibly just squeezing out a final 8th on Monday though that's unlikely.

    Before this year the record number of consecutive 30s in September was 3. The record for consecutive 30+ in any month is still held by the June/July 1976 spell, followed by the record breaking August 2003. But this I think ends up third longest of all time. In Autumn.

    Yesterday's mean Central England Temperature was 23.3C. The warmest 24 hours in September history and one of the warmest 24 hours in any month in the UK.

    France has has a week of mid to high 30s. Widely record breaking and completely unprecedented for the time of year.

    But next week it's back to Autumn, folks. Will come as a bit of a shock

    Early and mid September are summer, not autumn. And the heat is grim. A cool down cannot come soon enough. I have barely slept all week.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/seasons/autumn/when-does-autumn-start
    My plans to install solar powered A/C in the loft conversion look better by the day.
    I’m considering similar. We have a period like this every summer, and it often means a week to ten days of sleeplessness.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051

    TimS said:

    kle4 said:

    If Hall wins, there will be a lot of hysteria about FPTP and calls for Starmer to introduce PR for Westminster.

    You say hysteria I say justifiable rage!
    If Hall wins, and it's a ridiculous if but let's ride with it, then it'll be because Hall attracted more votes than any other candidate.

    If that happens, she'd deserve the win.

    Don't blame the system, just win more votes.
    I think the pretext to moving to FPTP for mayoralties was weak, but it's not like there was something sacred about the supplemental vote approach.
    Labour chose the supplemental vote system to protect them from a third-party challenger*. So it's swings and roundabouts for the Tories to scrap it and choose the voting system that most favours them.

    If Labour want to be genuinely reforming in a way that sticks, then they would have to look beyond their own self-interest.

    * It is, of course, hilarious that it failed to do so at the first attempt in London, but, still.
    This is the problem at the root of any voting reform where the politicians are in charge. Any change, or maintenance of the status quo, favours one set of political parties. Credit to the SNP they are the only party in the UK who have a policy position on voting reform that is counter to their own self-interest (something that's always surprised me but perhaps dates from back when FPTP worked against them, and it would now look too self-serving to change position).
    The precedent set by Boris Johnson - in abolishing the Supplemental Vote for mayors without a Parliamentary vote - is a gold-plated gift for PR absolutist like me. It has set the precedent that the Government can change electoral Law by a mere Order in Council. So, when we eventually get a House of Commons willing to vote in favour of a sensible voting system (i.e. STV!) then the Government will be able to force it through in a couple of hours. No debate, no referendum, no posturing, just a bit of admin. Come the day. Lord, come the day!!
    I don't think that's quite right. The change was made as part of the Elections Act 2022 (Section 13). The Order in Council was required to introduce the change but couldn't have been done without legislation first. Nor could it be reversed or further amended to a different system without a new Act.

    There is, of course, a long history of changing voting systems purely through legislation. Parliament once elected MPs by STV, for example.
    Indeed. Further back, there used to be multi-member Westminster seats, which is effectively a different system to FPTP in single member seats. These were then abolished by legislation.

    Other changes — number of seats in the Commons, universal suffrage, boundaries — all go through just on legislation, as did House of Lords reform, which introduced a voting system (AV or possibly STV) for the “elected” hereditaries.
  • TimS said:

    5th day in a row with temperatures over 30C in London. We should end up with 7 days by Sunday. Possibly just squeezing out a final 8th on Monday though that's unlikely.

    Before this year the record number of consecutive 30s in September was 3. The record for consecutive 30+ in any month is still held by the June/July 1976 spell, followed by the record breaking August 2003. But this I think ends up third longest of all time. In Autumn.

    Yesterday's mean Central England Temperature was 23.3C. The warmest 24 hours in September history and one of the warmest 24 hours in any month in the UK.

    France has has a week of mid to high 30s. Widely record breaking and completely unprecedented for the time of year.

    But next week it's back to Autumn, folks. Will come as a bit of a shock

    Early and mid September are summer, not autumn. And the heat is grim. A cool down cannot come soon enough. I have barely slept all week.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/seasons/autumn/when-does-autumn-start
    Am I the only one liking the current weather? I have no problem sleeping, with the window open it's fine. I'm dreading colder weather. I used to be good with the cold and bad with the heat, coming from Scotland, but lived abroad in some hot places for a few years and now I'm the opposite!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792

    TimS said:

    5th day in a row with temperatures over 30C in London. We should end up with 7 days by Sunday. Possibly just squeezing out a final 8th on Monday though that's unlikely.

    Before this year the record number of consecutive 30s in September was 3. The record for consecutive 30+ in any month is still held by the June/July 1976 spell, followed by the record breaking August 2003. But this I think ends up third longest of all time. In Autumn.

    Yesterday's mean Central England Temperature was 23.3C. The warmest 24 hours in September history and one of the warmest 24 hours in any month in the UK.

    France has has a week of mid to high 30s. Widely record breaking and completely unprecedented for the time of year.

    But next week it's back to Autumn, folks. Will come as a bit of a shock

    Early and mid September are summer, not autumn. And the heat is grim. A cool down cannot come soon enough. I have barely slept all week.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/seasons/autumn/when-does-autumn-start
    Too hot to sleep at night, but weirdly too hot to stay awake during the day.

    Actually I'm loving it. (Though I am in tge temperate North West, not the tropical South East.) I love this weather in June, but in June it's tempered slightly with a feeling of 'well this is nice but I hope it doesn't go on like this for weeks and weeks'. When it's September, you know it's a last hurrah and can enjoy it unreservedly .
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    edited September 2023
    dixiedean said:

    This has probably been covered, but oughtn't Labour be looking to push Khan out?
    He's seriously under polling his Party.
    Someone Else Labour would surely poll better?

    That's a good point. I was surprised to realize he was standing again after 8 years in the job. You cross the rubicon with a 3rd term. Because if 12 years is ok why not 16 or 20? We'd be looking at a kind of London Putin.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    5th day in a row with temperatures over 30C in London. We should end up with 7 days by Sunday. Possibly just squeezing out a final 8th on Monday though that's unlikely.

    Before this year the record number of consecutive 30s in September was 3. The record for consecutive 30+ in any month is still held by the June/July 1976 spell, followed by the record breaking August 2003. But this I think ends up third longest of all time. In Autumn.

    Yesterday's mean Central England Temperature was 23.3C. The warmest 24 hours in September history and one of the warmest 24 hours in any month in the UK.

    France has has a week of mid to high 30s. Widely record breaking and completely unprecedented for the time of year.

    But next week it's back to Autumn, folks. Will come as a bit of a shock

    The Wythall wine makers are loving it. Told me they’ve got a bumper crop of grapes and this late burst of intense sun is perfectly timed

    It’s putting the kibosh on my hiking plans, however. Was gonna trek around the Forest of Dean. It’s simply too hot and humid. Feels like 35C
    Yeah, no good for activity. Twice this week I’ve cancelled bike rides because you are covered in sweat in two minutes.

    Meanwhile, it’s overcast here in north London, and 30c, at 5.30pm. And really humid. You are probably better off where you are.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Cookie said:

    TimS said:

    5th day in a row with temperatures over 30C in London. We should end up with 7 days by Sunday. Possibly just squeezing out a final 8th on Monday though that's unlikely.

    Before this year the record number of consecutive 30s in September was 3. The record for consecutive 30+ in any month is still held by the June/July 1976 spell, followed by the record breaking August 2003. But this I think ends up third longest of all time. In Autumn.

    Yesterday's mean Central England Temperature was 23.3C. The warmest 24 hours in September history and one of the warmest 24 hours in any month in the UK.

    France has has a week of mid to high 30s. Widely record breaking and completely unprecedented for the time of year.

    But next week it's back to Autumn, folks. Will come as a bit of a shock

    Early and mid September are summer, not autumn. And the heat is grim. A cool down cannot come soon enough. I have barely slept all week.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/seasons/autumn/when-does-autumn-start
    Too hot to sleep at night, but weirdly too hot to stay awake during the day.

    Actually I'm loving it. (Though I am in tge temperate North West, not the tropical South East.) I love this weather in June, but in June it's tempered slightly with a feeling of 'well this is nice but I hope it doesn't go on like this for weeks and weeks'. When it's September, you know it's a last hurrah and can enjoy it unreservedly .
    How anyone can love this weather is beyond me, yet it seems people do. It is, to my mind, the epitome of disgusting.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    edited September 2023
    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    kle4 said:

    If Hall wins, there will be a lot of hysteria about FPTP and calls for Starmer to introduce PR for Westminster.

    You say hysteria I say justifiable rage!
    If Hall wins, and it's a ridiculous if but let's ride with it, then it'll be because Hall attracted more votes than any other candidate.

    If that happens, she'd deserve the win.

    Don't blame the system, just win more votes.
    I think the pretext to moving to FPTP for mayoralties was weak, but it's not like there was something sacred about the supplemental vote approach.
    Labour chose the supplemental vote system to protect them from a third-party challenger*. So it's swings and roundabouts for the Tories to scrap it and choose the voting system that most favours them.

    If Labour want to be genuinely reforming in a way that sticks, then they would have to look beyond their own self-interest.

    * It is, of course, hilarious that it failed to do so at the first attempt in London, but, still.
    This is the problem at the root of any voting reform where the politicians are in charge. Any change, or maintenance of the status quo, favours one set of political parties. Credit to the SNP they are the only party in the UK who have a policy position on voting reform that is counter to their own self-interest (something that's always surprised me but perhaps dates from back when FPTP worked against them, and it would now look too self-serving to change position).
    I think Plaid also support PR while benefiting (hugely) from FPTP. Sinn Fein too, although of course most of the elections they stand in use STV. It’s just Westminster elections, that they’d rather not exist at all, where they are standing under, and benefitting from, FPTP.

    I *think* the UUP want to keep FPTP for Westminster elections, even though they’d benefit from PR. As you suggest with the SNP, this is perhaps because they supported FPTP when it benefited them and just haven’t changed that position since FPTP stopped benefiting them.
    Conasider also the Labour and (for Holyrood anyway) LD policies - desperate to keep some hold of power in Edinburgh and Cardiff, so went for non-FPTP, but only too happy to have it for Westminster.
    LD policy is for STV everywhere, which is consistent. It’s just Labour who wanted PR for assemblies yet FPTP for Westminster.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    TimS said:

    5th day in a row with temperatures over 30C in London. We should end up with 7 days by Sunday. Possibly just squeezing out a final 8th on Monday though that's unlikely.

    Before this year the record number of consecutive 30s in September was 3. The record for consecutive 30+ in any month is still held by the June/July 1976 spell, followed by the record breaking August 2003. But this I think ends up third longest of all time. In Autumn.

    Yesterday's mean Central England Temperature was 23.3C. The warmest 24 hours in September history and one of the warmest 24 hours in any month in the UK.

    France has has a week of mid to high 30s. Widely record breaking and completely unprecedented for the time of year.

    But next week it's back to Autumn, folks. Will come as a bit of a shock

    Early and mid September are summer, not autumn. And the heat is grim. A cool down cannot come soon enough. I have barely slept all week.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/seasons/autumn/when-does-autumn-start
    Am I the only one liking the current weather? I have no problem sleeping, with the window open it's fine. I'm dreading colder weather. I used to be good with the cold and bad with the heat, coming from Scotland, but lived abroad in some hot places for a few years and now I'm the opposite!
    Opening the windows makes my house hotter!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    edited September 2023
    Edit: Effing Vanilla
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Cookie said:

    TimS said:

    5th day in a row with temperatures over 30C in London. We should end up with 7 days by Sunday. Possibly just squeezing out a final 8th on Monday though that's unlikely.

    Before this year the record number of consecutive 30s in September was 3. The record for consecutive 30+ in any month is still held by the June/July 1976 spell, followed by the record breaking August 2003. But this I think ends up third longest of all time. In Autumn.

    Yesterday's mean Central England Temperature was 23.3C. The warmest 24 hours in September history and one of the warmest 24 hours in any month in the UK.

    France has has a week of mid to high 30s. Widely record breaking and completely unprecedented for the time of year.

    But next week it's back to Autumn, folks. Will come as a bit of a shock

    Early and mid September are summer, not autumn. And the heat is grim. A cool down cannot come soon enough. I have barely slept all week.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/seasons/autumn/when-does-autumn-start
    Too hot to sleep at night, but weirdly too hot to stay awake during the day.

    Actually I'm loving it. (Though I am in tge temperate North West, not the tropical South East.) I love this weather in June, but in June it's tempered slightly with a feeling of 'well this is nice but I hope it doesn't go on like this for weeks and weeks'. When it's September, you know it's a last hurrah and can enjoy it unreservedly .
    How anyone can love this weather is beyond me, yet it seems people do. It is, to my mind, the epitome of disgusting.
    I love it, even if it messes with my hiking. I particularly love the soft shirtsleeve evenings

    Last night I sat out drinking under the Milky Way, in the Golden Valley, up in the hills, til 1am in a tee shirt. Glorious
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    kinabalu said:

    dixiedean said:

    This has probably been covered, but oughtn't Labour be looking to push Khan out?
    He's seriously under polling his Party.
    Someone Else Labour would surely poll better?

    That's a good point. I was surprised to realize he was standing again after 8 years in the job. You cross the rubicon with a 3rd term. Because if 12 years is ok why not 16 or 20? We'd be looking at a kind of London Putin.
    Holding a position for more than 8 years is hardly an unusual thing. Lots of Prime Ministers have. (I realise it’s easy to forget this, living in the age we do of Tory PMs with tenures like mayflys.)

    I don’t think you should compare Khan to Putin until he leads an invasion of Essex.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    TimS said:

    Selebian said:

    MattW said:

    We need to remember that Susan Hall only has any chance at all because the Conservative Government changed the voting system to FPTP to give themselves that chance.

    I do find it strange when you use that kind of an excuse

    Just collect more votes
    The Cons didn't like the previous need to collect the majority of votes?

    image

    Of course, under AV it might turn out that the cafe is indeed the majority choice, because the pubs are all very different, which is the beauty of AV.

    I have concerns about pure PR for parliament, with party lists dominating etc, lack of direct link to representative, but that doesn't applywhen you are electing one named mayor.
    The same old straw man about PR.

    Single Transferable Vote! More local representation than FPTP. No party list. No safe seats. Easier to kick out an MP who's not working hard.
    On election night, I like to stay up until the bulk of the results are in. However, under STV this would mean going four nights without sleep.

    Surplus votes. Well dodgy.
    Did you watch the Irish results on RTE over the weekend after polling day? Really impressive analysis of *why* X's votes were likely to transfer to Y, and what that would mean for Z whose powerbase was in a different part of the constituency etc. Irish Elections are like 5 Day Test Matches, with British elections being like the T100, i.e. OK for those wanting cheap thrills rather than beauty.
    You make your case impressively to an audience more likely than average to appreciate Test Cricket, kudos.

    I would miss the immediate drama of FPTP, but I think the advantages outweigh that.
  • kinabalu said:

    dixiedean said:

    This has probably been covered, but oughtn't Labour be looking to push Khan out?
    He's seriously under polling his Party.
    Someone Else Labour would surely poll better?

    That's a good point. I was surprised to realize he was standing again after 8 years in the job. You cross the rubicon with a 3rd term. Because if 12 years is ok why not 16 or 20? We'd be looking at a kind of London Putin.
    Holding a position for more than 8 years is hardly an unusual thing. Lots of Prime Ministers have. (I realise it’s easy to forget this, living in the age we do of Tory PMs with tenures like mayflys.)

    I don’t think you should compare Khan to Putin until he leads an invasion of Essex.
    Listen to some residents round this way, you'd think he already had...

    (Meanwhile, another polling company has noticed some odd features about the internals for the poll we're discussing;

    From the Redfield London poll.
    A person in London is apparently *less* likely to be a Westminster Conservative voter if they are in their 50's and 60's than if they are in their 20's and 30's.
    For Labour voters, there's no age effect at all on their vote from 25-65.

    Sadiq Khan is *smashing it* in ULEZ affected *Outer* London. Susan Hall is the voter's choice for *inner* London:


    https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/1700116873822556271)

    Obviously subsamples, obviously rogue polls, but odd, anyway.
  • Cookie said:

    TimS said:

    5th day in a row with temperatures over 30C in London. We should end up with 7 days by Sunday. Possibly just squeezing out a final 8th on Monday though that's unlikely.

    Before this year the record number of consecutive 30s in September was 3. The record for consecutive 30+ in any month is still held by the June/July 1976 spell, followed by the record breaking August 2003. But this I think ends up third longest of all time. In Autumn.

    Yesterday's mean Central England Temperature was 23.3C. The warmest 24 hours in September history and one of the warmest 24 hours in any month in the UK.

    France has has a week of mid to high 30s. Widely record breaking and completely unprecedented for the time of year.

    But next week it's back to Autumn, folks. Will come as a bit of a shock

    Early and mid September are summer, not autumn. And the heat is grim. A cool down cannot come soon enough. I have barely slept all week.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/seasons/autumn/when-does-autumn-start
    Too hot to sleep at night, but weirdly too hot to stay awake during the day.

    Actually I'm loving it. (Though I am in tge temperate North West, not the tropical South East.) I love this weather in June, but in June it's tempered slightly with a feeling of 'well this is nice but I hope it doesn't go on like this for weeks and weeks'. When it's September, you know it's a last hurrah and can enjoy it unreservedly .
    How anyone can love this weather is beyond me, yet it seems people do. It is, to my mind, the epitome of disgusting.
    It's annoying that our recent summer temperatures seem to be either above 30 or below 20. It would be nice to have a sustained few weeks in the mid-20s for a change.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    TimS said:

    5th day in a row with temperatures over 30C in London. We should end up with 7 days by Sunday. Possibly just squeezing out a final 8th on Monday though that's unlikely.

    Before this year the record number of consecutive 30s in September was 3. The record for consecutive 30+ in any month is still held by the June/July 1976 spell, followed by the record breaking August 2003. But this I think ends up third longest of all time. In Autumn.

    Yesterday's mean Central England Temperature was 23.3C. The warmest 24 hours in September history and one of the warmest 24 hours in any month in the UK.

    France has has a week of mid to high 30s. Widely record breaking and completely unprecedented for the time of year.

    But next week it's back to Autumn, folks. Will come as a bit of a shock

    Early and mid September are summer, not autumn. And the heat is grim. A cool down cannot come soon enough. I have barely slept all week.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/seasons/autumn/when-does-autumn-start
    Too hot to sleep at night, but weirdly too hot to stay awake during the day.

    Actually I'm loving it. (Though I am in tge temperate North West, not the tropical South East.) I love this weather in June, but in June it's tempered slightly with a feeling of 'well this is nice but I hope it doesn't go on like this for weeks and weeks'. When it's September, you know it's a last hurrah and can enjoy it unreservedly .
    How anyone can love this weather is beyond me, yet it seems people do. It is, to my mind, the epitome of disgusting.
    I love it, even if it messes with my hiking. I particularly love the soft shirtsleeve evenings

    Last night I sat out drinking under the Milky Way, in the Golden Valley, up in the hills, til 1am in a tee shirt. Glorious
    It’s probably nicer out there. Been horrible here today. Grey, humid, hot. Grim.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    Cookie said:

    ... which leads me on to a brief self indulgence to celebrate my 10,000th post.
    If you'll kindly forgive the self-indulgence, I want to report a scene I saw today. Middle daughter, recently started secondary school, has
    started meeting friends on the rec (playing fields behind the houses over the
    road) after school. I wandered over there to see when she would be home: there was a small handful of eleven and twelve year old girls, in various school uniforms, lolling amiably beneath a tree in the low September sunshine, listening to music on their phones. It was a scene which wouldn't have been out of place 30 or 60
    years ago - except 30 years ago they'd
    have been listening to a cassette player, and 60 years ago to a radio. They weren't doing much beyond each others'company - something they'd much rather do in person than virtually. Kind of gave me hope for the future.

    Meanwhile, her Dad, at home, skulking on social media …… congratulations on your 10,000th post, BTW.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792

    Cookie said:

    TimS said:

    5th day in a row with temperatures over 30C in London. We should end up with 7 days by Sunday. Possibly just squeezing out a final 8th on Monday though that's unlikely.

    Before this year the record number of consecutive 30s in September was 3. The record for consecutive 30+ in any month is still held by the June/July 1976 spell, followed by the record breaking August 2003. But this I think ends up third longest of all time. In Autumn.

    Yesterday's mean Central England Temperature was 23.3C. The warmest 24 hours in September history and one of the warmest 24 hours in any month in the UK.

    France has has a week of mid to high 30s. Widely record breaking and completely unprecedented for the time of year.

    But next week it's back to Autumn, folks. Will come as a bit of a shock

    Early and mid September are summer, not autumn. And the heat is grim. A cool down cannot come soon enough. I have barely slept all week.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/seasons/autumn/when-does-autumn-start
    Too hot to sleep at night, but weirdly too hot to stay awake during the day.

    Actually I'm loving it. (Though I am in tge temperate North West, not the tropical South East.) I love this weather in June, but in June it's tempered slightly with a feeling of 'well this is nice but I hope it doesn't go on like this for weeks and weeks'. When it's September, you know it's a last hurrah and can enjoy it unreservedly .
    How anyone can love this weather is beyond me, yet it seems people do. It is, to my mind, the epitome of disgusting.
    Well you're in London. London is always sweaty and humid. If Manchester is sweaty and humid, London must be like Bangkok.
    But I'd happily take another couple of weeks of this.
    I went for a 20 mile bike ride earlier. It was very pleasant indeed.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    Cookie said:

    TimS said:

    5th day in a row with temperatures over 30C in London. We should end up with 7 days by Sunday. Possibly just squeezing out a final 8th on Monday though that's unlikely.

    Before this year the record number of consecutive 30s in September was 3. The record for consecutive 30+ in any month is still held by the June/July 1976 spell, followed by the record breaking August 2003. But this I think ends up third longest of all time. In Autumn.

    Yesterday's mean Central England Temperature was 23.3C. The warmest 24 hours in September history and one of the warmest 24 hours in any month in the UK.

    France has has a week of mid to high 30s. Widely record breaking and completely unprecedented for the time of year.

    But next week it's back to Autumn, folks. Will come as a bit of a shock

    Early and mid September are summer, not autumn. And the heat is grim. A cool down cannot come soon enough. I have barely slept all week.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/seasons/autumn/when-does-autumn-start
    Too hot to sleep at night, but weirdly too hot to stay awake during the day.

    Actually I'm loving it. (Though I am in tge temperate North West, not the tropical South East.) I love this weather in June, but in June it's tempered slightly with a feeling of 'well this is nice but I hope it doesn't go on like this for weeks and weeks'. When it's September, you know it's a last hurrah and can enjoy it unreservedly .
    How anyone can love this weather is beyond me, yet it seems people do. It is, to my mind, the epitome of disgusting.
    I like it. But if I was having to work I probably wouldn't be so keen.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    kle4 said:

    If Hall wins, there will be a lot of hysteria about FPTP and calls for Starmer to introduce PR for Westminster.

    You say hysteria I say justifiable rage!
    If Hall wins, and it's a ridiculous if but let's ride with it, then it'll be because Hall attracted more votes than any other candidate.

    If that happens, she'd deserve the win.

    Don't blame the system, just win more votes.
    I think the pretext to moving to FPTP for mayoralties was weak, but it's not like there was something sacred about the supplemental vote approach.
    Labour chose the supplemental vote system to protect them from a third-party challenger*. So it's swings and roundabouts for the Tories to scrap it and choose the voting system that most favours them.

    If Labour want to be genuinely reforming in a way that sticks, then they would have to look beyond their own self-interest.

    * It is, of course, hilarious that it failed to do so at the first attempt in London, but, still.
    This is the problem at the root of any voting reform where the politicians are in charge. Any change, or maintenance of the status quo, favours one set of political parties. Credit to the SNP they are the only party in the UK who have a policy position on voting reform that is counter to their own self-interest (something that's always surprised me but perhaps dates from back when FPTP worked against them, and it would now look too self-serving to change position).
    I think Plaid also support PR while benefiting (hugely) from FPTP. Sinn Fein too, although of course most of the elections they stand in use STV. It’s just Westminster elections, that they’d rather not exist at all, where they are standing under, and benefitting from, FPTP.

    I *think* the UUP want to keep FPTP for Westminster elections, even though they’d benefit from PR. As you suggest with the SNP, this is perhaps because they supported FPTP when it benefited them and just haven’t changed that position since FPTP stopped benefiting them.
    Conasider also the Labour and (for Holyrood anyway) LD policies - desperate to keep some hold of power in Edinburgh and Cardiff, so went for non-FPTP, but only too happy to have it for Westminster.
    LD policy is for STV everywhere, which is consistent. It’s just Labour who wanted PR for assemblies yet FPTP for Westminster.
    Sure, I wasn't expressing it well, sorry! LD got their paws on the levers at Holyrood - very much not in Westminster, the abortive Northern vote c. 2011 aside. Not sure about Cardiff.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931

    kinabalu said:

    dixiedean said:

    This has probably been covered, but oughtn't Labour be looking to push Khan out?
    He's seriously under polling his Party.
    Someone Else Labour would surely poll better?

    That's a good point. I was surprised to realize he was standing again after 8 years in the job. You cross the rubicon with a 3rd term. Because if 12 years is ok why not 16 or 20? We'd be looking at a kind of London Putin.
    Holding a position for more than 8 years is hardly an unusual thing. Lots of Prime Ministers have. (I realise it’s easy to forget this, living in the age we do of Tory PMs with tenures like mayflys.)

    I don’t think you should compare Khan to Putin until he leads an invasion of Essex.
    It will never happen. The HYUFD tank brigade is ready and waiting.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Cookie said:

    TimS said:

    5th day in a row with temperatures over 30C in London. We should end up with 7 days by Sunday. Possibly just squeezing out a final 8th on Monday though that's unlikely.

    Before this year the record number of consecutive 30s in September was 3. The record for consecutive 30+ in any month is still held by the June/July 1976 spell, followed by the record breaking August 2003. But this I think ends up third longest of all time. In Autumn.

    Yesterday's mean Central England Temperature was 23.3C. The warmest 24 hours in September history and one of the warmest 24 hours in any month in the UK.

    France has has a week of mid to high 30s. Widely record breaking and completely unprecedented for the time of year.

    But next week it's back to Autumn, folks. Will come as a bit of a shock

    Early and mid September are summer, not autumn. And the heat is grim. A cool down cannot come soon enough. I have barely slept all week.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/seasons/autumn/when-does-autumn-start
    Too hot to sleep at night, but weirdly too hot to stay awake during the day.

    Actually I'm loving it. (Though I am in tge temperate North West, not the tropical South East.) I love this weather in June, but in June it's tempered slightly with a feeling of 'well this is nice but I hope it doesn't go on like this for weeks and weeks'. When it's September, you know it's a last hurrah and can enjoy it unreservedly .
    How anyone can love this weather is beyond me, yet it seems people do. It is, to my mind, the epitome of disgusting.
    It's annoying that our recent summer temperatures seem to be either above 30 or below 20. It would be nice to have a sustained few weeks in the mid-20s for a change.
    What we are getting in southern Scotland (unless there is a haar coming off the N Sea in which case it's nice and cool and shady).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    kinabalu said:

    dixiedean said:

    This has probably been covered, but oughtn't Labour be looking to push Khan out?
    He's seriously under polling his Party.
    Someone Else Labour would surely poll better?

    That's a good point. I was surprised to realize he was standing again after 8 years in the job. You cross the rubicon with a 3rd term. Because if 12 years is ok why not 16 or 20? We'd be looking at a kind of London Putin.
    Holding a position for more than 8 years is hardly an unusual thing. Lots of Prime Ministers have. (I realise it’s easy to forget this, living in the age we do of Tory PMs with tenures like mayflys.)
    Only 12 PMs have lasted more than 8 years in the job, so about 1 in 5. Of those, 5 had gaps between different terms, and only 8 managed more than 8 years consecutively.

    I don't disagree that the idea of crossing the rubicon by having a third term is a bit silly, it feels like one of those ideas taken on due to the prevalence of term limits in other places rather than how we operate here.

    Of course, lack of term limits has not generally meant a dominant figure for a long long time - we do a good job in ticking things over (so did the USA come to that).
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    We’ve not had a 3-term London Mayor before, but Ken Livingstone tried to do that. It’s just he lost election #3 to Boris. Indeed, Livingstone stood at the next election as well. He was a candidate 4 times in a row.

    Dave Hodgson was elected 4 times as Bedford Mayor and stood but lost a fifth time. Ray Mallon did three terms as Middlesbrough Mayor. Stuart Drummond was three times Hartlepool Mayor. Why on Earth should anyone be bothered about Khan doing three terms?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792

    Cookie said:

    ... which leads me on to a brief self indulgence to celebrate my 10,000th post.
    If you'll kindly forgive the self-indulgence, I want to report a scene I saw today. Middle daughter, recently started secondary school, has
    started meeting friends on the rec (playing fields behind the houses over the
    road) after school. I wandered over there to see when she would be home: there was a small handful of eleven and twelve year old girls, in various school uniforms, lolling amiably beneath a tree in the low September sunshine, listening to music on their phones. It was a scene which wouldn't have been out of place 30 or 60
    years ago - except 30 years ago they'd
    have been listening to a cassette player, and 60 years ago to a radio. They weren't doing much beyond each others'company - something they'd much rather do in person than virtually. Kind of gave me hope for the future.

    Meanwhile, her Dad, at home, skulking on social media …… congratulations on your 10,000th post, BTW.
    Haha - yes, I see the irony. She is an example to me. I mean, I like you lot, but you can't beat IRL.
    In my partial defence, I have taken the youngest two climbing but am unable to join in due to a mildly poorly knee.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    kinabalu said:

    dixiedean said:

    This has probably been covered, but oughtn't Labour be looking to push Khan out?
    He's seriously under polling his Party.
    Someone Else Labour would surely poll better?

    That's a good point. I was surprised to realize he was standing again after 8 years in the job. You cross the rubicon with a 3rd term. Because if 12 years is ok why not 16 or 20? We'd be looking at a kind of London Putin.
    Holding a position for more than 8 years is hardly an unusual thing. Lots of Prime Ministers have. (I realise it’s easy to forget this, living in the age we do of Tory PMs with tenures like mayflys.)

    I don’t think you should compare Khan to Putin until he leads an invasion of Essex.
    It will never happen. The HYUFD tank brigade is ready and waiting.
    The forces are all pointing north, toward the Scottish front, the southern flank is wide open!
  • Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    TimS said:

    5th day in a row with temperatures over 30C in London. We should end up with 7 days by Sunday. Possibly just squeezing out a final 8th on Monday though that's unlikely.

    Before this year the record number of consecutive 30s in September was 3. The record for consecutive 30+ in any month is still held by the June/July 1976 spell, followed by the record breaking August 2003. But this I think ends up third longest of all time. In Autumn.

    Yesterday's mean Central England Temperature was 23.3C. The warmest 24 hours in September history and one of the warmest 24 hours in any month in the UK.

    France has has a week of mid to high 30s. Widely record breaking and completely unprecedented for the time of year.

    But next week it's back to Autumn, folks. Will come as a bit of a shock

    Early and mid September are summer, not autumn. And the heat is grim. A cool down cannot come soon enough. I have barely slept all week.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/seasons/autumn/when-does-autumn-start
    Too hot to sleep at night, but weirdly too hot to stay awake during the day.

    Actually I'm loving it. (Though I am in tge temperate North West, not the tropical South East.) I love this weather in June, but in June it's tempered slightly with a feeling of 'well this is nice but I hope it doesn't go on like this for weeks and weeks'. When it's September, you know it's a last hurrah and can enjoy it unreservedly .
    How anyone can love this weather is beyond me, yet it seems people do. It is, to my mind, the epitome of disgusting.
    I love it, even if it messes with my hiking. I particularly love the soft shirtsleeve evenings

    Last night I sat out drinking under the Milky Way, in the Golden Valley, up in the hills, til 1am in a tee shirt. Glorious
    It’s probably nicer out there. Been horrible here today. Grey, humid, hot. Grim.
    Some sun broke through earlier, but now it's clouded over again.

    It's going to be like sleeping in that fluff that tumble dryers produce.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051

    kinabalu said:

    dixiedean said:

    This has probably been covered, but oughtn't Labour be looking to push Khan out?
    He's seriously under polling his Party.
    Someone Else Labour would surely poll better?

    That's a good point. I was surprised to realize he was standing again after 8 years in the job. You cross the rubicon with a 3rd term. Because if 12 years is ok why not 16 or 20? We'd be looking at a kind of London Putin.
    Holding a position for more than 8 years is hardly an unusual thing. Lots of Prime Ministers have. (I realise it’s easy to forget this, living in the age we do of Tory PMs with tenures like mayflys.)

    I don’t think you should compare Khan to Putin until he leads an invasion of Essex.
    It will never happen. The HYUFD tank brigade is ready and waiting.
    Wars are won by logistics and London has the economic might to win this special operation, which, I hasten to add, was only necessitated by Essex aggression.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    Carnyx said:

    Cookie said:

    TimS said:

    5th day in a row with temperatures over 30C in London. We should end up with 7 days by Sunday. Possibly just squeezing out a final 8th on Monday though that's unlikely.

    Before this year the record number of consecutive 30s in September was 3. The record for consecutive 30+ in any month is still held by the June/July 1976 spell, followed by the record breaking August 2003. But this I think ends up third longest of all time. In Autumn.

    Yesterday's mean Central England Temperature was 23.3C. The warmest 24 hours in September history and one of the warmest 24 hours in any month in the UK.

    France has has a week of mid to high 30s. Widely record breaking and completely unprecedented for the time of year.

    But next week it's back to Autumn, folks. Will come as a bit of a shock

    Early and mid September are summer, not autumn. And the heat is grim. A cool down cannot come soon enough. I have barely slept all week.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/seasons/autumn/when-does-autumn-start
    Too hot to sleep at night, but weirdly too hot to stay awake during the day.

    Actually I'm loving it. (Though I am in tge temperate North West, not the tropical South East.) I love this weather in June, but in June it's tempered slightly with a feeling of 'well this is nice but I hope it doesn't go on like this for weeks and weeks'. When it's September, you know it's a last hurrah and can enjoy it unreservedly .
    How anyone can love this weather is beyond me, yet it seems people do. It is, to my mind, the epitome of disgusting.
    It's annoying that our recent summer temperatures seem to be either above 30 or below 20. It would be nice to have a sustained few weeks in the mid-20s for a change.
    What we are getting in southern Scotland (unless there is a haar coming off the N Sea in which case it's nice and cool and shady).
    Yes, mid to high 20s in the NW. At tge upper end of pleasant.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    kinabalu said:

    dixiedean said:

    This has probably been covered, but oughtn't Labour be looking to push Khan out?
    He's seriously under polling his Party.
    Someone Else Labour would surely poll better?

    That's a good point. I was surprised to realize he was standing again after 8 years in the job. You cross the rubicon with a 3rd term. Because if 12 years is ok why not 16 or 20? We'd be looking at a kind of London Putin.
    Holding a position for more than 8 years is hardly an unusual thing. Lots of Prime Ministers have. (I realise it’s easy to forget this, living in the age we do of Tory PMs with tenures like mayflys.)

    I don’t think you should compare Khan to Putin until he leads an invasion of Essex.
    Plus he's only 52. Yes I take the point but I like the 2 term limit.

    If he invaded Essex HYUFD could emerge as a Zelensky figure.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    Peter Soulsby, stood 4 times as Leicester Mayor, won 4 times.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    kinabalu said:

    dixiedean said:

    This has probably been covered, but oughtn't Labour be looking to push Khan out?
    He's seriously under polling his Party.
    Someone Else Labour would surely poll better?

    That's a good point. I was surprised to realize he was standing again after 8 years in the job. You cross the rubicon with a 3rd term. Because if 12 years is ok why not 16 or 20? We'd be looking at a kind of London Putin.
    Holding a position for more than 8 years is hardly an unusual thing. Lots of Prime Ministers have. (I realise it’s easy to forget this, living in the age we do of Tory PMs with tenures like mayflys.)

    I don’t think you should compare Khan to Putin until he leads an invasion of Essex.
    It will never happen. The HYUFD tank brigade is ready and waiting.
    Wars are won by logistics and London has the economic might to win this special operation, which, I hasten to add, was only necessitated by Essex aggression.
    Essex will have allies though, the South-East has its own grudges to bring to bear on London and a long history of rebellions toward it, so can distract from that direction.

    We in the South-West will stay well out of it, but perhaps the North might provide moral support to Essex.
  • Representative Nancy Pelosi of California, who was the Democratic Party’s long-serving House leader and the first woman to hold the post, announced on Friday that she would seek re-election in 2024, ending months of speculation about her political future.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/08/us/politics/nancy-pelosi-re-election.html

    She is 83.

    FFS.
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    dixiedean said:

    This has probably been covered, but oughtn't Labour be looking to push Khan out?
    He's seriously under polling his Party.
    Someone Else Labour would surely poll better?

    That's a good point. I was surprised to realize he was standing again after 8 years in the job. You cross the rubicon with a 3rd term. Because if 12 years is ok why not 16 or 20? We'd be looking at a kind of London Putin.
    Holding a position for more than 8 years is hardly an unusual thing. Lots of Prime Ministers have. (I realise it’s easy to forget this, living in the age we do of Tory PMs with tenures like mayflys.)

    I don’t think you should compare Khan to Putin until he leads an invasion of Essex.
    Plus he's only 52. Yes I take the point but I like the 2 term limit.

    If he invaded Essex HYUFD could emerge as a Zelensky figure.
    Let's hope HYUFD doesn’t have the same method of playing the piano.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Chris said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Friday afternoon quiz

    I was questioning the Wythall wine dude and marvelling at the longevity and stasis of his family, living in the same house for five centuries

    He said “that’s nothing, there’s a Scudamore living in a house down the road and they’ve been there since at least 1100. Almost a thousand years”

    That must be close to the world record. For a non-royal family occupying the same house for the longest time. Tho I remember once reading - and my memory might be faulty - about a family, plus house, that claimed to date back before
    1066. Anglo Saxon origins

    Is there an even older lineage anywhere? Japan?

    Yep Japan.

    The oldest family run business in the world. Hoshi Ryokan. A hotel run by the same family since 718AD

    https://famoushotels.org/news/hoshi-ryokan-the-worlds-oldest-guest-house
    But that’s a business not a home. Tho I guess if they’ve lived in their own Ryokan that’s definitely the winner

    Berkeley Castle has been the home of the Berkeley family since probably the late 11th century.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berkeley_Castle
    There are plenty of thoroughly modern magnates who can trace their wealth back to 1066 and its unfortunate aftermath for the English landed classes: Grosvenor, Cecil, Mortimer, Spencer, Cadogan, de Walden etc. It's most unlikely any proprietor from before the conquest could have survived that century with his roof intact, much less another 900 years.
    No doubt quite a few families with originally Norman surnames can trace a line back to the 11th century, but probably a lot fewer than people imagine, and where there is a traceable line it will normally be a cadet line, the senior line almost invariably having ended in heiresses.

    The male-line ancestry of the Grosvenor Dukes of Westminster, for example, can be traced back with certainty only to the 13th century in Cheshire, with a possible earlier member at the end of the 12th.
    The only Grosvenor I know is an afro-caribean from Barbados. Presumably the Duke of Westminster once owned her ancestors.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    dixiedean said:

    This has probably been covered, but oughtn't Labour be looking to push Khan out?
    He's seriously under polling his Party.
    Someone Else Labour would surely poll better?

    That's a good point. I was surprised to realize he was standing again after 8 years in the job. You cross the rubicon with a 3rd term. Because if 12 years is ok why not 16 or 20? We'd be looking at a kind of London Putin.
    Holding a position for more than 8 years is hardly an unusual thing. Lots of Prime Ministers have. (I realise it’s easy to forget this, living in the age we do of Tory PMs with tenures like mayflys.)

    I don’t think you should compare Khan to Putin until he leads an invasion of Essex.
    Plus he's only 52. Yes I take the point but I like the 2 term limit.

    If he invaded Essex HYUFD could emerge as a Zelensky figure.
    Let's hope HYUFD doesn’t have the same method of playing the piano.
    Well, he is a plonker...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986

    TimS said:

    5th day in a row with temperatures over 30C in London. We should end up with 7 days by Sunday. Possibly just squeezing out a final 8th on Monday though that's unlikely.

    Before this year the record number of consecutive 30s in September was 3. The record for consecutive 30+ in any month is still held by the June/July 1976 spell, followed by the record breaking August 2003. But this I think ends up third longest of all time. In Autumn.

    Yesterday's mean Central England Temperature was 23.3C. The warmest 24 hours in September history and one of the warmest 24 hours in any month in the UK.

    France has has a week of mid to high 30s. Widely record breaking and completely unprecedented for the time of year.

    But next week it's back to Autumn, folks. Will come as a bit of a shock

    Early and mid September are summer, not autumn. And the heat is grim. A cool down cannot come soon enough. I have barely slept all week.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/seasons/autumn/when-does-autumn-start
    They are astronomical summer but meteorological autumn.
    A debate as old as time (well almost). September is autumn just as March is spring. Leaves start turning orange in September. Lambs frolic and birds tweet in March. Schools are back for the Autumn term. Occams Razor, or its Met equivalent.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    TimS said:

    5th day in a row with temperatures over 30C in London. We should end up with 7 days by Sunday. Possibly just squeezing out a final 8th on Monday though that's unlikely.

    Before this year the record number of consecutive 30s in September was 3. The record for consecutive 30+ in any month is still held by the June/July 1976 spell, followed by the record breaking August 2003. But this I think ends up third longest of all time. In Autumn.

    Yesterday's mean Central England Temperature was 23.3C. The warmest 24 hours in September history and one of the warmest 24 hours in any month in the UK.

    France has has a week of mid to high 30s. Widely record breaking and completely unprecedented for the time of year.

    But next week it's back to Autumn, folks. Will come as a bit of a shock

    Early and mid September are summer, not autumn. And the heat is grim. A cool down cannot come soon enough. I have barely slept all week.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/seasons/autumn/when-does-autumn-start
    Too hot to sleep at night, but weirdly too hot to stay awake during the day.

    Actually I'm loving it. (Though I am in tge temperate North West, not the tropical South East.) I love this weather in June, but in June it's tempered slightly with a feeling of 'well this is nice but I hope it doesn't go on like this for weeks and weeks'. When it's September, you know it's a last hurrah and can enjoy it unreservedly .
    How anyone can love this weather is beyond me, yet it seems people do. It is, to my mind, the epitome of disgusting.
    I love it, even if it messes with my hiking. I particularly love the soft shirtsleeve evenings

    Last night I sat out drinking under the Milky Way, in the Golden Valley, up in the hills, til 1am in a tee shirt. Glorious
    That's the same Milky Way you'd see in the African Bush at sunset. One world, one people.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    Dick Whittington, elected three times as Lord Mayor of London.
This discussion has been closed.