It’s insanely warm. 26.2C at the nearest weather station, at 10.30pm on a calm night. In September (Autumn, for the avoidance of doubt).
I would be saying it’s insanely warm if this were the 20th July.
It’s summer until the equinox on 22/23 September, although this is hot even for high summer in this country. Absolutely grim. Impossible to sleep. I have tried everything, but it’s like tucking up in a slightly faulty sauna.
Meteorological summer ended at the end of August.
Considering the weather follows meteorological seasons and not astronomical ones, its the more relevant definition too.
That’s just a definition the Met Office uses so their statistics fall neatly into months. It has no basis whatsoever in science.
It does actually, its based upon the weather which coincides rather interestingly with the Gregorian Calendar. 1 June is on average warmer than 22 September.
September has many more hot days on record than June. Still, the seasons are set by the cosmos, not the government .
If the seasons were set by the cosmos, then 23 September would be the middle of autumn, not the first day of it.
The science is different. Hence why we call autumn beginning from what should be its middle, or meteorologically a few weeks before what would be its middle.
FWIW a weather nerd friend of mine reckons if you based the seasons on average temps (and you insisted that each season had to be a quarter long), you’d run them 11th to the 10th. Which means the astronomical seasons and meteorological seasons are both out by ten days or so.
It’s insanely warm. 26.2C at the nearest weather station, at 10.30pm on a calm night. In September (Autumn, for the avoidance of doubt).
I would be saying it’s insanely warm if this were the 20th July.
It’s summer until the equinox on 22/23 September, although this is hot even for high summer in this country. Absolutely grim. Impossible to sleep. I have tried everything, but it’s like tucking up in a slightly faulty sauna.
My wife and I have a never ending (good natured) spat about the seasons. I say March-May is Spring and so on and so forth each three months. She insists Spring starts on 21st March (and so on). I understand one is the metrological convention and the other is the astronomical convention, but I still do say to her that she expects me to classify the 20th December, one of the darkest days of the year, and often very cold, as Autumn still. When it usually clearly isn't.
My brother decided to upend all conventions. He runs a 4-2-4-2 system. Spring is March and April, Summer May to August, Autumn only September and October and Winter for the rest.
There are quite a few meteorologists who use a long summer/winter and shorter transition seasons. A summer of May to September and a winter of November to March is one such division.
Another that has become quite trendy in meteorological circles is to split the year into six seasons of two months each, with two summer and winter seasons each, early and late, as the meteorology of each half of those seasons can be quite different.
But no-one doing any meteorological science ever uses the so-called astronomical seasons. They're no use to anyone.
It’s insanely warm. 26.2C at the nearest weather station, at 10.30pm on a calm night. In September (Autumn, for the avoidance of doubt).
I would be saying it’s insanely warm if this were the 20th July.
It’s summer until the equinox on 22/23 September, although this is hot even for high summer in this country. Absolutely grim. Impossible to sleep. I have tried everything, but it’s like tucking up in a slightly faulty sauna.
My wife and I have a never ending (good natured) spat about the seasons. I say March-May is Spring and so on and so forth each three months. She insists Spring starts on 21st March (and so on). I understand one is the metrological convention and the other is the astronomical convention, but I still do say to her that she expects me to classify the 20th December, one of the darkest days of the year, and often very cold, as Autumn still. When it usually clearly isn't.
My brother decided to upend all conventions. He runs a 4-2-4-2 system. Spring is March and April, Summer May to August, Autumn only September and October and Winter for the rest.
She’s right, 20 December is autumn, albeit usually the final day of it.
FWIW a weather nerd friend of mine reckons if you based the seasons on average temps (and you insisted that each season had to be a quarter long), you’d run them 11th to the 10th. Which means the astronomical seasons and meteorological seasons are both out by ten days or so.
It means that the meteorological seasons are more accurate.
10 days out instead of 13 days out is more accurate.
It’s insanely warm. 26.2C at the nearest weather station, at 10.30pm on a calm night. In September (Autumn, for the avoidance of doubt).
I would be saying it’s insanely warm if this were the 20th July.
It’s summer until the equinox on 22/23 September, although this is hot even for high summer in this country. Absolutely grim. Impossible to sleep. I have tried everything, but it’s like tucking up in a slightly faulty sauna.
My wife and I have a never ending (good natured) spat about the seasons. I say March-May is Spring and so on and so forth each three months. She insists Spring starts on 21st March (and so on). I understand one is the metrological convention and the other is the astronomical convention, but I still do say to her that she expects me to classify the 20th December, one of the darkest days of the year, and often very cold, as Autumn still. When it usually clearly isn't.
My brother decided to upend all conventions. He runs a 4-2-4-2 system. Spring is March and April, Summer May to August, Autumn only September and October and Winter for the rest.
Spring: 1st March to around 20th May Summer: around 20th May to around 15th September Autumn: around 15th September to around 10th November Winter: around 10th November to 1st March
It’s insanely warm. 26.2C at the nearest weather station, at 10.30pm on a calm night. In September (Autumn, for the avoidance of doubt).
I would be saying it’s insanely warm if this were the 20th July.
It’s summer until the equinox on 22/23 September, although this is hot even for high summer in this country. Absolutely grim. Impossible to sleep. I have tried everything, but it’s like tucking up in a slightly faulty sauna.
My wife and I have a never ending (good natured) spat about the seasons. I say March-May is Spring and so on and so forth each three months. She insists Spring starts on 21st March (and so on). I understand one is the metrological convention and the other is the astronomical convention, but I still do say to her that she expects me to classify the 20th December, one of the darkest days of the year, and often very cold, as Autumn still. When it usually clearly isn't.
My brother decided to upend all conventions. He runs a 4-2-4-2 system. Spring is March and April, Summer May to August, Autumn only September and October and Winter for the rest.
She’s right, 20 December is autumn, albeit usually the final day of it.
Utterly ridiculous to call 20 December "autumn". No meteorological basis for that whatsoever.
FWIW a weather nerd friend of mine reckons if you based the seasons on average temps (and you insisted that each season had to be a quarter long), you’d run them 11th to the 10th. Which means the astronomical seasons and meteorological seasons are both out by ten days or so.
It means that the meteorological seasons are more accurate.
10 days out instead of 13 days out is more accurate.
LOL, would only by a day in some years as the solstices/equinoxes vary. But as this is pedanticbetting.com I’ll concede that wafer-thin point.
Not that it matters: the seasons are set by the cosmos, not the government, nor by weather nerds.
It’s insanely warm. 26.2C at the nearest weather station, at 10.30pm on a calm night. In September (Autumn, for the avoidance of doubt).
I would be saying it’s insanely warm if this were the 20th July.
It’s summer until the equinox on 22/23 September, although this is hot even for high summer in this country. Absolutely grim. Impossible to sleep. I have tried everything, but it’s like tucking up in a slightly faulty sauna.
Meteorological summer ended at the end of August.
Considering the weather follows meteorological seasons and not astronomical ones, its the more relevant definition too.
That’s just a definition the Met Office uses so their statistics fall neatly into months. It has no basis whatsoever in science.
This is a rare situation where the Met Office are completely wrong. It's illogical to use the autumn equinox as the beginning of autumn.
No, its entirely logical.
The reason is the way the earth traps and loses heat. The winter solstice is just a few days before Christmas so why isn't November a part of winter, and why is February? Because February is much colder than November.
There's a delayed reaction to the build up and loss of heat, which means that each season roughly starts at what you'd think astronomically should be its midpoint.
In practice it starts a few weeks before that midpoint rather than starting exactly at the midpoint, which is why meteorological seasons don't align with astronomical ones.
Yes, I do know that, thank you, but the lag is of different lengths depending on what you look at. For example, the Arctic sea ice spring doesn't start until April, because the temperature lag for sea ice is longer.
There's no particular reason why the temperature lag should be equal to half the season length, and so there's no logic to using the equinox as the starting point for a season. And temperature is not the only variable you might use to define a season. There are good reasons to use day length, or rainfall, or wind, or many other variables.
FWIW a weather nerd friend of mine reckons if you based the seasons on average temps (and you insisted that each season had to be a quarter long), you’d run them 11th to the 10th. Which means the astronomical seasons and meteorological seasons are both out by ten days or so.
It means that the meteorological seasons are more accurate.
10 days out instead of 13 days out is more accurate.
LOL, would only by a day in some years as the solstices/equinoxes vary. But as this is pedanticbetting.com I’ll concede that wafer-thin point.
Not that it matters: the seasons are set by the cosmos, not the government, nor by weather nerds.
Again - if the seasons are set by the cosmos, then astronomically those would be the midpoints of the season, not the start of them.
The convention of naming each season as starting by what is astronomically its midpoint, is because of the fact the weather lags behind the cosmos, it doesn't come with it.
But it doesn't completely lag behind, hence why the middle of the cosmic season is too late to class its start meteorologically.
It’s insanely warm. 26.2C at the nearest weather station, at 10.30pm on a calm night. In September (Autumn, for the avoidance of doubt).
I would be saying it’s insanely warm if this were the 20th July.
It’s summer until the equinox on 22/23 September, although this is hot even for high summer in this country. Absolutely grim. Impossible to sleep. I have tried everything, but it’s like tucking up in a slightly faulty sauna.
My wife and I have a never ending (good natured) spat about the seasons. I say March-May is Spring and so on and so forth each three months. She insists Spring starts on 21st March (and so on). I understand one is the metrological convention and the other is the astronomical convention, but I still do say to her that she expects me to classify the 20th December, one of the darkest days of the year, and often very cold, as Autumn still. When it usually clearly isn't.
My brother decided to upend all conventions. He runs a 4-2-4-2 system. Spring is March and April, Summer May to August, Autumn only September and October and Winter for the rest.
There are quite a few meteorologists who use a long summer/winter and shorter transition seasons. A summer of May to September and a winter of November to March is one such division.
Another that has become quite trendy in meteorological circles is to split the year into six seasons of two months each, with two summer and winter seasons each, early and late, as the meteorology of each half of those seasons can be quite different.
But no-one doing any meteorological science ever uses the so-called astronomical seasons. They're no use to anyone.
It’s insanely warm. 26.2C at the nearest weather station, at 10.30pm on a calm night. In September (Autumn, for the avoidance of doubt).
I would be saying it’s insanely warm if this were the 20th July.
It’s summer until the equinox on 22/23 September, although this is hot even for high summer in this country. Absolutely grim. Impossible to sleep. I have tried everything, but it’s like tucking up in a slightly faulty sauna.
My wife and I have a never ending (good natured) spat about the seasons. I say March-May is Spring and so on and so forth each three months. She insists Spring starts on 21st March (and so on). I understand one is the metrological convention and the other is the astronomical convention, but I still do say to her that she expects me to classify the 20th December, one of the darkest days of the year, and often very cold, as Autumn still. When it usually clearly isn't.
My brother decided to upend all conventions. He runs a 4-2-4-2 system. Spring is March and April, Summer May to August, Autumn only September and October and Winter for the rest.
She’s right, 20 December is autumn, albeit usually the final day of it.
Utterly ridiculous to call 20 December "autumn". No meteorological basis for that whatsoever.
Given it is just before the solstice, it is still technically autumn.
It’s insanely warm. 26.2C at the nearest weather station, at 10.30pm on a calm night. In September (Autumn, for the avoidance of doubt).
I would be saying it’s insanely warm if this were the 20th July.
It’s summer until the equinox on 22/23 September, although this is hot even for high summer in this country. Absolutely grim. Impossible to sleep. I have tried everything, but it’s like tucking up in a slightly faulty sauna.
Meteorological summer ended at the end of August.
Considering the weather follows meteorological seasons and not astronomical ones, its the more relevant definition too.
That’s just a definition the Met Office uses so their statistics fall neatly into months. It has no basis whatsoever in science.
This is a rare situation where the Met Office are completely wrong. It's illogical to use the autumn equinox as the beginning of autumn.
No, its entirely logical.
The reason is the way the earth traps and loses heat. The winter solstice is just a few days before Christmas so why isn't November a part of winter, and why is February? Because February is much colder than November.
There's a delayed reaction to the build up and loss of heat, which means that each season roughly starts at what you'd think astronomically should be its midpoint.
In practice it starts a few weeks before that midpoint rather than starting exactly at the midpoint, which is why meteorological seasons don't align with astronomical ones.
Yes, I do know that, thank you, but the lag is of different lengths depending on what you look at. For example, the Arctic sea ice spring doesn't start until April, because the temperature lag for sea ice is longer.
There's no particular reason why the temperature lag should be equal to half the season length, and so there's no logic to using the equinox as the starting point for a season. And temperature is not the only variable you might use to define a season. There are good reasons to use day length, or rainfall, or wind, or many other variables.
Yes, agreed on that, the lag is not half the season's length, which is why its patently absurd to class 20 December as "autumn" when all the leaves have fallen long before then, and its as cold as it gets. Its clearly winter.
Ditto calling mid-June "spring" is just preposterous too.
It’s insanely warm. 26.2C at the nearest weather station, at 10.30pm on a calm night. In September (Autumn, for the avoidance of doubt).
I would be saying it’s insanely warm if this were the 20th July.
It’s summer until the equinox on 22/23 September, although this is hot even for high summer in this country. Absolutely grim. Impossible to sleep. I have tried everything, but it’s like tucking up in a slightly faulty sauna.
My wife and I have a never ending (good natured) spat about the seasons. I say March-May is Spring and so on and so forth each three months. She insists Spring starts on 21st March (and so on). I understand one is the metrological convention and the other is the astronomical convention, but I still do say to her that she expects me to classify the 20th December, one of the darkest days of the year, and often very cold, as Autumn still. When it usually clearly isn't.
My brother decided to upend all conventions. He runs a 4-2-4-2 system. Spring is March and April, Summer May to August, Autumn only September and October and Winter for the rest.
There are quite a few meteorologists who use a long summer/winter and shorter transition seasons. A summer of May to September and a winter of November to March is one such division.
Another that has become quite trendy in meteorological circles is to split the year into six seasons of two months each, with two summer and winter seasons each, early and late, as the meteorology of each half of those seasons can be quite different.
But no-one doing any meteorological science ever uses the so-called astronomical seasons. They're no use to anyone.
It’s insanely warm. 26.2C at the nearest weather station, at 10.30pm on a calm night. In September (Autumn, for the avoidance of doubt).
I would be saying it’s insanely warm if this were the 20th July.
It’s summer until the equinox on 22/23 September, although this is hot even for high summer in this country. Absolutely grim. Impossible to sleep. I have tried everything, but it’s like tucking up in a slightly faulty sauna.
My wife and I have a never ending (good natured) spat about the seasons. I say March-May is Spring and so on and so forth each three months. She insists Spring starts on 21st March (and so on). I understand one is the metrological convention and the other is the astronomical convention, but I still do say to her that she expects me to classify the 20th December, one of the darkest days of the year, and often very cold, as Autumn still. When it usually clearly isn't.
My brother decided to upend all conventions. He runs a 4-2-4-2 system. Spring is March and April, Summer May to August, Autumn only September and October and Winter for the rest.
She’s right, 20 December is autumn, albeit usually the final day of it.
Utterly ridiculous to call 20 December "autumn". No meteorological basis for that whatsoever.
Given it is just before the solstice, it is still technically autumn.
It’s insanely warm. 26.2C at the nearest weather station, at 10.30pm on a calm night. In September (Autumn, for the avoidance of doubt).
I would be saying it’s insanely warm if this were the 20th July.
It’s summer until the equinox on 22/23 September, although this is hot even for high summer in this country. Absolutely grim. Impossible to sleep. I have tried everything, but it’s like tucking up in a slightly faulty sauna.
My wife and I have a never ending (good natured) spat about the seasons. I say March-May is Spring and so on and so forth each three months. She insists Spring starts on 21st March (and so on). I understand one is the metrological convention and the other is the astronomical convention, but I still do say to her that she expects me to classify the 20th December, one of the darkest days of the year, and often very cold, as Autumn still. When it usually clearly isn't.
My brother decided to upend all conventions. He runs a 4-2-4-2 system. Spring is March and April, Summer May to August, Autumn only September and October and Winter for the rest.
There are quite a few meteorologists who use a long summer/winter and shorter transition seasons. A summer of May to September and a winter of November to March is one such division.
Another that has become quite trendy in meteorological circles is to split the year into six seasons of two months each, with two summer and winter seasons each, early and late, as the meteorology of each half of those seasons can be quite different.
But no-one doing any meteorological science ever uses the so-called astronomical seasons. They're no use to anyone.
FWIW a weather nerd friend of mine reckons if you based the seasons on average temps (and you insisted that each season had to be a quarter long), you’d run them 11th to the 10th. Which means the astronomical seasons and meteorological seasons are both out by ten days or so.
It means that the meteorological seasons are more accurate.
10 days out instead of 13 days out is more accurate.
LOL, would only by a day in some years as the solstices/equinoxes vary. But as this is pedanticbetting.com I’ll concede that wafer-thin point.
Not that it matters: the seasons are set by the cosmos, not the government, nor by weather nerds.
Again - if the seasons are set by the cosmos, then astronomically those would be the midpoints of the season, not the start of them.
The convention of naming each season as starting by what is astronomically its midpoint, is because of the fact the weather lags behind the cosmos, it doesn't come with it.
But it doesn't completely lag behind, hence why the middle of the cosmic season is too late to class its start meteorologically.
FWIW a weather nerd friend of mine reckons if you based the seasons on average temps (and you insisted that each season had to be a quarter long), you’d run them 11th to the 10th. Which means the astronomical seasons and meteorological seasons are both out by ten days or so.
For central England the average warmest day is right at the end of July/beginning of August and the coldest day is six months later between January and February.
So if the only thing you cared about was the temperature then you'd start them near the middle of those months, yes. Temperature is not the only meteorological variable, however.
It’s insanely warm. 26.2C at the nearest weather station, at 10.30pm on a calm night. In September (Autumn, for the avoidance of doubt).
I would be saying it’s insanely warm if this were the 20th July.
It’s summer until the equinox on 22/23 September, although this is hot even for high summer in this country. Absolutely grim. Impossible to sleep. I have tried everything, but it’s like tucking up in a slightly faulty sauna.
Meteorological summer ended at the end of August.
Considering the weather follows meteorological seasons and not astronomical ones, its the more relevant definition too.
That’s just a definition the Met Office uses so their statistics fall neatly into months. It has no basis whatsoever in science.
This is a rare situation where the Met Office are completely wrong. It's illogical to use the autumn equinox as the beginning of autumn.
No, its entirely logical.
The reason is the way the earth traps and loses heat. The winter solstice is just a few days before Christmas so why isn't November a part of winter, and why is February? Because February is much colder than November.
There's a delayed reaction to the build up and loss of heat, which means that each season roughly starts at what you'd think astronomically should be its midpoint.
In practice it starts a few weeks before that midpoint rather than starting exactly at the midpoint, which is why meteorological seasons don't align with astronomical ones.
Yes, I do know that, thank you, but the lag is of different lengths depending on what you look at. For example, the Arctic sea ice spring doesn't start until April, because the temperature lag for sea ice is longer.
There's no particular reason why the temperature lag should be equal to half the season length, and so there's no logic to using the equinox as the starting point for a season. And temperature is not the only variable you might use to define a season. There are good reasons to use day length, or rainfall, or wind, or many other variables.
Yes, agreed on that, the lag is not half the season's length, which is why its patently absurd to class 20 December as "autumn" when all the leaves have fallen long before then, and its as cold as it gets. Its clearly winter.
Ditto calling mid-June "spring" is just preposterous too.
In your opinion. Yet 15 June is Spring, as it precedes the solstice. See below:
It’s insanely warm. 26.2C at the nearest weather station, at 10.30pm on a calm night. In September (Autumn, for the avoidance of doubt).
I would be saying it’s insanely warm if this were the 20th July.
It’s summer until the equinox on 22/23 September, although this is hot even for high summer in this country. Absolutely grim. Impossible to sleep. I have tried everything, but it’s like tucking up in a slightly faulty sauna.
My wife and I have a never ending (good natured) spat about the seasons. I say March-May is Spring and so on and so forth each three months. She insists Spring starts on 21st March (and so on). I understand one is the metrological convention and the other is the astronomical convention, but I still do say to her that she expects me to classify the 20th December, one of the darkest days of the year, and often very cold, as Autumn still. When it usually clearly isn't.
My brother decided to upend all conventions. He runs a 4-2-4-2 system. Spring is March and April, Summer May to August, Autumn only September and October and Winter for the rest.
There are quite a few meteorologists who use a long summer/winter and shorter transition seasons. A summer of May to September and a winter of November to March is one such division.
Another that has become quite trendy in meteorological circles is to split the year into six seasons of two months each, with two summer and winter seasons each, early and late, as the meteorology of each half of those seasons can be quite different.
But no-one doing any meteorological science ever uses the so-called astronomical seasons. They're no use to anyone.
It’s insanely warm. 26.2C at the nearest weather station, at 10.30pm on a calm night. In September (Autumn, for the avoidance of doubt).
I would be saying it’s insanely warm if this were the 20th July.
It’s summer until the equinox on 22/23 September, although this is hot even for high summer in this country. Absolutely grim. Impossible to sleep. I have tried everything, but it’s like tucking up in a slightly faulty sauna.
My wife and I have a never ending (good natured) spat about the seasons. I say March-May is Spring and so on and so forth each three months. She insists Spring starts on 21st March (and so on). I understand one is the metrological convention and the other is the astronomical convention, but I still do say to her that she expects me to classify the 20th December, one of the darkest days of the year, and often very cold, as Autumn still. When it usually clearly isn't.
My brother decided to upend all conventions. He runs a 4-2-4-2 system. Spring is March and April, Summer May to August, Autumn only September and October and Winter for the rest.
She’s right, 20 December is autumn, albeit usually the final day of it.
Utterly ridiculous to call 20 December "autumn". No meteorological basis for that whatsoever.
Given it is just before the solstice, it is still technically autumn.
Meteorologically its technically winter.
Just ask the Met office.
Or failing that, a thermometer.
If I asked a thermometer, today would be high summer, in the south of France!
I have never seen a single meteorological science paper that uses the astronomical "seasons" in its analysis.
Off the top of my head I can think of seven different definitions for summer that have been used in such papers, for various different purposes, all with a logical, scientific, basis for their choice.
No-one would even think of using the equinoxes and solstices as the starts of seasons.
I can guarantee that none of the Met Office scientists had anything to do with the webpage Anabob keeps linking to, and it's quite likely several of them have complained fruitlessly about it internally.
I can guarantee that none of the Met Office scientists had anything to do with the webpage Anabob keeps linking to, and it's quite likely several of them have complained fruitlessly about it internally.
It’s insanely warm. 26.2C at the nearest weather station, at 10.30pm on a calm night. In September (Autumn, for the avoidance of doubt).
I would be saying it’s insanely warm if this were the 20th July.
It’s summer until the equinox on 22/23 September, although this is hot even for high summer in this country. Absolutely grim. Impossible to sleep. I have tried everything, but it’s like tucking up in a slightly faulty sauna.
Meteorological summer ended at the end of August.
Considering the weather follows meteorological seasons and not astronomical ones, its the more relevant definition too.
That’s just a definition the Met Office uses so their statistics fall neatly into months. It has no basis whatsoever in science.
This is a rare situation where the Met Office are completely wrong. It's illogical to use the autumn equinox as the beginning of autumn.
No, its entirely logical.
The reason is the way the earth traps and loses heat. The winter solstice is just a few days before Christmas so why isn't November a part of winter, and why is February? Because February is much colder than November.
There's a delayed reaction to the build up and loss of heat, which means that each season roughly starts at what you'd think astronomically should be its midpoint.
In practice it starts a few weeks before that midpoint rather than starting exactly at the midpoint, which is why meteorological seasons don't align with astronomical ones.
Yes, I do know that, thank you, but the lag is of different lengths depending on what you look at. For example, the Arctic sea ice spring doesn't start until April, because the temperature lag for sea ice is longer.
There's no particular reason why the temperature lag should be equal to half the season length, and so there's no logic to using the equinox as the starting point for a season. And temperature is not the only variable you might use to define a season. There are good reasons to use day length, or rainfall, or wind, or many other variables.
Yes, agreed on that, the lag is not half the season's length, which is why its patently absurd to class 20 December as "autumn" when all the leaves have fallen long before then, and its as cold as it gets. Its clearly winter.
Ditto calling mid-June "spring" is just preposterous too.
In your opinion. Yet 15 June is Spring, as it precedes the solstice. See below:
FWIW - my RWC predictions... Group A - i had predicted France beating NZ and dont expect any shocks in this group, so France will win group with NZ as runners up.
Group B - South Africa will beat Ireland and top the group - Scotland will put up one hell of a fight against both SA and Ireland but no cigar. SA first place, Ireland second.
QF1 - France v Ireland - will be hell of a game but Ireland will maintain their RWC record and crash out. QF2 - South Africa v NZ - a closer match than the last one at Twickenham, but with the same result QF3 - Wales v Samoa - this will come down to injuries....if Wales can come through the group injury free they should win - but if not they will struggle. Samoa to pinch this. QF4 - Argentina v Fiji - a fascinating match but Argentina will win. QF3/4 - Wales/Fiji/Australia are pretty much interchangeable here but without affecting tge outcome.
FWIW - my RWC predictions... Group A - i had predicted France beating NZ and dont expect any shocks in this group, so France will win group with NZ as runners up.
Group B - South Africa will beat Ireland and top the group - Scotland will put up one hell of a fight against both SA and Ireland but no cigar. SA first place, Ireland second.
i lost part of this...so
Group C - Wales will do better than some predictions and beat Fiji - but I also see Fiji beating Australia and Oz beating Wales. So with one win apiece it will come down to points difference and results against Georgia will become critical. I think final order will be Wales - Fiji - Australia but you can perm any two from three.
Group D - England are going to lose against Argentina and Samoa who will both go through. Samoa could beat Argentina but I think that Argentina will nick it.
It’s insanely warm. 26.2C at the nearest weather station, at 10.30pm on a calm night. In September (Autumn, for the avoidance of doubt).
I would be saying it’s insanely warm if this were the 20th July.
It’s summer until the equinox on 22/23 September, although this is hot even for high summer in this country. Absolutely grim. Impossible to sleep. I have tried everything, but it’s like tucking up in a slightly faulty sauna.
Meteorological summer ended at the end of August.
Considering the weather follows meteorological seasons and not astronomical ones, its the more relevant definition too.
That’s just a definition the Met Office uses so their statistics fall neatly into months. It has no basis whatsoever in science.
This is a rare situation where the Met Office are completely wrong. It's illogical to use the autumn equinox as the beginning of autumn.
No, its entirely logical.
The reason is the way the earth traps and loses heat. The winter solstice is just a few days before Christmas so why isn't November a part of winter, and why is February? Because February is much colder than November.
There's a delayed reaction to the build up and loss of heat, which means that each season roughly starts at what you'd think astronomically should be its midpoint.
In practice it starts a few weeks before that midpoint rather than starting exactly at the midpoint, which is why meteorological seasons don't align with astronomical ones.
Yes, I do know that, thank you, but the lag is of different lengths depending on what you look at. For example, the Arctic sea ice spring doesn't start until April, because the temperature lag for sea ice is longer.
There's no particular reason why the temperature lag should be equal to half the season length, and so there's no logic to using the equinox as the starting point for a season. And temperature is not the only variable you might use to define a season. There are good reasons to use day length, or rainfall, or wind, or many other variables.
Yes, agreed on that, the lag is not half the season's length, which is why its patently absurd to class 20 December as "autumn" when all the leaves have fallen long before then, and its as cold as it gets. Its clearly winter.
Ditto calling mid-June "spring" is just preposterous too.
In your opinion. Yet 15 June is Spring, as it precedes the solstice. See below:
Comments
If the seasons were set by the cosmos, then 23 September would be the middle of autumn, not the first day of it.
The science is different. Hence why we call autumn beginning from what should be its middle, or meteorologically a few weeks before what would be its middle.
Another that has become quite trendy in meteorological circles is to split the year into six seasons of two months each, with two summer and winter seasons each, early and late, as the meteorology of each half of those seasons can be quite different.
But no-one doing any meteorological science ever uses the so-called astronomical seasons. They're no use to anyone.
10 days out instead of 13 days out is more accurate.
Summer: around 20th May to around 15th September
Autumn: around 15th September to around 10th November
Winter: around 10th November to 1st March
Not that it matters: the seasons are set by the cosmos, not the government, nor by weather nerds.
There's no particular reason why the temperature lag should be equal to half the season length, and so there's no logic to using the equinox as the starting point for a season. And temperature is not the only variable you might use to define a season. There are good reasons to use day length, or rainfall, or wind, or many other variables.
The convention of naming each season as starting by what is astronomically its midpoint, is because of the fact the weather lags behind the cosmos, it doesn't come with it.
But it doesn't completely lag behind, hence why the middle of the cosmic season is too late to class its start meteorologically.
Ditto calling mid-June "spring" is just preposterous too.
Just ask the Met office.
Or failing that, a thermometer.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/seasons/autumn/when-does-autumn-start
So if the only thing you cared about was the temperature then you'd start them near the middle of those months, yes. Temperature is not the only meteorological variable, however.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/seasons/summer/when-does-summer-start
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/seasons/winter/when-does-winter-start
Off the top of my head I can think of seven different definitions for summer that have been used in such papers, for various different purposes, all with a logical, scientific, basis for their choice.
No-one would even think of using the equinoxes and solstices as the starts of seasons.
Group A - i had predicted France beating NZ and dont expect any shocks in this group, so France will win group with NZ as runners up.
Group B - South Africa will beat Ireland and top the group - Scotland will put up one hell of a fight against both SA and Ireland but no cigar. SA first place, Ireland second.
QF2 - South Africa v NZ - a closer match than the last one at Twickenham, but with the same result
QF3 - Wales v Samoa - this will come down to injuries....if Wales can come through the group injury free they should win - but if not they will struggle. Samoa to pinch this.
QF4 - Argentina v Fiji - a fascinating match but Argentina will win.
QF3/4 - Wales/Fiji/Australia are pretty much interchangeable here but without affecting tge outcome.
SF2 South Africa v Argentina - South Africa to win...but will be tight
Final : South Africa to beat France (partially as punishment for inflicting that awful opening ceremony on the world...)
Group C - Wales will do better than some predictions and beat Fiji - but I also see Fiji beating Australia and Oz beating Wales. So with one win apiece it will come down to points difference and results against Georgia will become critical. I think final order will be Wales - Fiji - Australia but you can perm any two from three.
Group D - England are going to lose against Argentina and Samoa who will both go through. Samoa could beat Argentina but I think that Argentina will nick it.