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How Corbyn could give the Mayoralty to the Tories – politicalbetting.com
How Corbyn could give the Mayoralty to the Tories – politicalbetting.com
Jeremy Corbyn would deny Sadiq Khan a third term if he runs for London mayor next year, new polling suggestsWithout Corbyn, Khan beats Hall 33 per cent to 32 per centWhen included, JC polls 15 per cent – Khan 25 per cent, Hall 30 per cent Hear more on @TimesRadio shortly pic.twitter.com/EruUnrzlim
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxohhpX2kfM
Since it's Friday, here's how you do bollards.
I can't tell if this is French or Usonian from the figure design. But it does seem to be bending over backwards.
You'd have thought this Government of all governments would know the cultural and historical significance of RAF Scampton.
*hums Dambusters March in an ironical fashion*
I am amazed at those numbers. Not the Corbyn effect but the fact that even without him the race is so tight. I had though Khan was likely to walk it.
Like people answering that they have been beheaded.
I may be putting too much faith in Londoners but I don't think there's a snowballs chance in today's weather that this would actually happen. Expressing discontentment with Khan/Starmer in a bs poll and actually voting accordingly are two very different things.
Starmer is more popular in London than Corbyn.
https://historicengland.org.uk/images-books/publications/raf-scampton-historic-characterisation/figures-1-5/
What next, are Mdmes/Messrs Braverman and Jenrick et al going to dig up Dover Castle or Housesteads fort?
I would be interested in seeing GE voting intention across London which may well have also been a question asked in this poll. I think it would confirm that Khan is a serious drag on his party in London now.
Same scenario happened with Livingstone and Blair in the 2000s.
However, I'd assume that tactical voting would be a lot more obvious in an actual election - especially since past elections weren't FPTP. You'd hope the message would get through that it's Tory v Labour, and people vote in that race, rather than lots of votes for no hopers.
Oh.
Have you ever heard of these guys? Wythall Estate wine near Ross. Just been to their vineyards and house. Jamie Wythall took me round and explained that the house is 600 years old and has always been occupied by the Wythalls. It’s incredible
Also their white wine is superb, the rose is excellent and they even make a decent Pinot Noir
Yay English wine
65% combined for first two candidates is ridiculously low, especially given next time is FPTP. For context it was 75% last time and I see no reason to believe 10% extra would go to third parties next time.
For further context that would be a lower combined share for top two candidates than has ever occurred, even in 2000 when Livingstone ran against the Labour Party.
Midterm polls often produce bullshit results that bear no resemblance to the actual outcome of the election.
Just ask EICIPM. Or Theresa landslide majority May.
I thought that London was the mothership that all mediocre, joyless, bureaucratic little pricks from across the country get drawn to.
Maybe Khan wins as they recognise him as one of their own.
I was questioning the Wythall wine dude and marvelling at the longevity and stasis of his family, living in the same house for five centuries
He said “that’s nothing, there’s a Scudamore living in a house down the road and they’ve been there since at least 1100. Almost a thousand years”
That must be close to the world record. For a non-royal family occupying the same house for the longest time. Tho I remember once reading - and my memory might be faulty - about a family, plus house, that claimed to date back before
1066. Anglo Saxon origins
Is there an even older lineage anywhere? Japan?
Firstly, it's about boring but necessary things, like transport and policing. Ken, for all his posing, actually got that and played the game- advancing international socialism by introducing the Oyster card. I don't see Jezza having that ability or inclination.
Secondly, it's about compromising with reality, not just giving everyone what they want. No sign at all of Corbyn ever having done that.
Fortunately, it doesn't matter. This poll puts him neck-and-neck with the Lib Dems, and they aren't going to win either.
It's a sort of secondary hub for English wine after the Hants-Sussex-Kent-Essex core. From NW Somerset up through the Marches to mid Herefordshire with a lot of the best land on the Hereford/Gloucs borders, and along the Wye Valley in Monmouthshire.
Alongside the grande dame 3 Choirs which makes the best value cheap wine in England, my favourite ones are Ancre Hill (in process of being sold I think) and Sixteen Ridges which is incredibly innovative and pretty large scale.
If that happens, she'd deserve the win.
Don't blame the system, just win more votes.
- It means there's an incumbent Tory Labour can point to as failing, and she's not the most exciting character (assuming that happens - but it's certainly helped the Tories having Khan on the throne)
- It makes PR more likely to bubble up in debate
- It signals to the rest of the country that the Tories are a London and SE elite party
- For Labour, it reduces the risk of red-on-red squabbles under a Labour government (as they may experience with Burnham in Manchester)
For people who just want to live their own lives bringing joy to their family and friends, not their petty bureaucratic "joy" imposed upon the rest of the world, then yes outside London is a good place to look.
At some point in the mid 2010s, the Conservatives decided that there were more votes to be had being against the idea of London than for it. That has consequences that would fit well in one of those "How it started" / "How it's going" memes.
The other odd thing is that nobody is really questioning Khan's ongoing Mayorality on the red team.
The voting system change is low. There's no reason for it at all other than to give the Tories the chance of chance (and, perhaps, to encourage some scrapping between the other parties).
I don't think she knew the significance.
Big, almost universally popular ideas that means he stands out from Khan & the crazy.
It is the real deal tho
“Wythall is a half-timbered, 16th century, Tudor Manor House. The estate sits in 28 acres of land, comprised of large gardens, vineyards, woodland and outbuildings located in rural Herefordshire. Wythall Estate is privately owned and has been since it was built circa 1520.”
https://giggster.com/uk/listing/tudor-manor-house-with-large-grounds-and-vineyard
Have many and more shiny developments and everyone could afford to live in an affordable shiny development.
Building slums is not the solution to the lack of housing.
Ed balls? He’s got the sort of ebullient persona which might suit the job
It is possible some of those houses have now been rased to the ground in the conflict, mind.
By the by, loving the idea that the Tories lose two points when Corbyn stands. Shy Blue-Marxists?
And first sighting of escaped prisoner apparently
I noticed a photo of William Hague with the family in the downstairs loo
I know there are Japanese family firms that date back to absurdly early times. 650AD or something. But I wonder if they’ve always lived in the same house..
Oh, bear in mind each file will have tens of millions of addresses and some versions of Excel can't(?) handle that.
CDU/CSU 29%
AfD 23%
SPD 16%
Greens 14%
FDP 5%
Left 5%
https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
Sadly after the discussions yesterday about helicoter safety, a chopper has gone down in the Gulf en route to a rig off UAE. No passengers but two crew missing.
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/shortcuts/2017/may/31/pampas-grass-secret-symbol-swingers-turn-off-sales-plummeting
(definitive guide)
ETA: Puts a whole new angle on Gnomeo and Juliet when you read the gnomes and flamingos bit
E2TA: And on wedding rings, there's an awful lot of swinger activity in Eastern Europe if that's true https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/wedding-rings/
There are a lot of German ex-nobility.
Just collect more votes
And did she have any flowers growing there too?
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/sep/08/dwp-stops-womans-benefits-after-she-said-she-worked-one-second-over-limit
The oldest family run business in the world. Hoshi Ryokan. A hotel run by the same family since 718AD
https://famoushotels.org/news/hoshi-ryokan-the-worlds-oldest-guest-house
however. These tend to displace families
That’s why England and Japan have so much old stuff. Both are Islands that have rarely been invaded or conquered and are generally (but not totallty) immune to revolutions
I appreciate this is not an insight for the ages but it is 31C and I am in the Forest of Dean looking for wild boar
It's just what they did.
It changes the system from supporting those who need it, to saying to people who can work that they're "not allowed" to work more than 16 hours "or they'll lose their benefits".
It also leads to a lot of people working for cash businesses which can put down their working hours as 15 then pay cash in hand the rest of the time and they can then keep their benefits and employer doesn't need to pay Employer NICs.
Cliff edges should never exist.
Of course, under AV it might turn out that the cafe is indeed the majority choice, because the pubs are all very different, which is the beauty of AV.
I have concerns about pure PR for parliament, with party lists dominating etc, lack of direct link to representative, but that doesn't applywhen you are electing one named mayor.
ETA: AV, as suggested for Westminster, not being PR, of course
One of my best friends spent a whole year there as a student during an Arabic degree and his photos were epic. (He then went on to be an officer in the British army and served in the Iraq war. Then worked in Saudi for a while. I often wonder what he was really up to in those years. His father had been a spy during the cold war.)
This is up there with the Nick Palmer Swiss Threesome Revelation
Single Transferable Vote! More local representation than FPTP. No party list. No safe seats. Easier to kick out an MP who's not working hard.
Instructional video on flipping to learn mode - https://youtu.be/2t_wrtyxFp8?si=YcSqTmTFyS9kQqRu