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Could there be a LAB-LD pact in mid-Beds? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,183
edited September 2023 in General
imageCould there be a LAB-LD pact in mid-Beds? – politicalbetting.com

We are starting to hear calls for the Labour and Lib Dem parties to agree on a single Anti -Tory candidate for the mid-Beds by-election. This, of course, has been created by the resignation of Liz Truss.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 28,444
    Since when did Liz Truss resign

    Nadine Dorris finally did the right thing but Liz Truss is going to be loitering round Westminster for decades.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,300
    edited September 2023
    Unlikely, as both parties could be competitive here.

    LDs will win it with Lab to Lib tactical voting and Con supporters going on strike (again)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,970
    eek said:

    Since when did Liz Truss resign

    Nadine Dorris finally did the right thing but Liz Truss is going to be loitering round Westminster for decades.

    Ah, this one is Despite Truss then.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    FPT

    Ed Davey comes off moderately well in his long form interview with Alistair Campbell and Rory Stewart.

    I’m not convinced that liberalism is about “holding powerful people to account”, though.

    How many people know Ed Davey’s life story?
    I’ve said before, he needs to ditch the suit and tie and only wear outdoors gear for public appearances. A subliminal cue that he’s not a pampered southern softie who will privatise your water supply.

    Harold Wilson had his pipe.
    Davey needs his weather-proof gilet.

    I still think the best thing he could do would be step down and help coronate Daisy Cooper. She's much more charismatic, would stand out more on a debate stage with SKS and Rishi, and also isn't tainted by the coalition years. She'd be much more comfortable attacking SKS from the "soft left" whilst still being "reasonable" enough for Tory voters. Yes she represents a highly remain seat and that could put off some of those target seat voters who are considering the LDs, but if you're a Tory voter thinking about voting LD then that can't be high on your priorities anyway. I also think she'd be willing to advocate for more spending and progressive tax reform, something that SKS has chucked that a lot of people (even Tories) would support. She's not from the Orange Book crowd (who are all basically Tories now anyway) and is much more in the vein of Paddy Ashdown or Charles Kennedy (without the drinking). Davey is just another not particularly charismatic middle aged guy who has been around too long. He has done well to put the LDs in the position it is in, but I don't think he is the politician best to capitalise on it in a GE.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,618
    TRUSS IS BACK!!!

    Just rejoice at that news.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,701
    LD's winning here. SKS fans whining here 🙄
  • Whoops. I mixed uoTruss and Dorries - now corrected
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,300

    Whoops - I got Nadine mixed up with Liz Truss. Now corrected

    Well they're both as mad as a box of frogs so easily done...
  • Whoops - I got Nadine mixed up with Liz Truss. Now corrected

    Easily done.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543
    Yes, can't see either party standing down. Labour definitely feel we're a clear 2nd with a shot at winning, and the betting markets have been moving steadily that way (down from 6 to 3.5) - suspect there's a crossover to come.

    Possibly, though, there will be a Tory win that will be a lesson for both of us what happens in this kind of seat where Labour are clearly second but the LibDems reckon they can come through. But I'm hopeful that much of the Tory vote won't come out. A Lab/LD/Con finish would be fun!
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    "The chart above shows the net gains and losses in Westminster by-elections and as can be seen they are well ahead. "
    That chart has nothing to do with Mid-Beds so is irrelevant.

    "What is significant is that half of the LD gains [that means two] have come in seats where they were in third place behind at the general election." This is more relevant, but there must be other local considerations that are more 'significant'.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Surely this should be one of the biggest policy issues facing the next government? I don't really see anything from Labour or the Tories that address this, as the article itself mentions.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/sep/04/poor-people-surviving-not-living-as-uk-social-contract-collapses-says-report
  • 148grss said:

    Surely this should be one of the biggest policy issues facing the next government? I don't really see anything from Labour or the Tories that address this, as the article itself mentions.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/sep/04/poor-people-surviving-not-living-as-uk-social-contract-collapses-says-report

    It basically comes down to housing. If that was cheap peoples standard of living could be a lot better. Build, build, build, and stop deliberately inflating asset prices gets my vote.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,401
    Given the LD leaflet trashing the Labour candidate as living in London (even if he was born in Mid Beds) there is now no love lost between the 2.

    Labour are already campaigning hard and on the Selby swing would take the seat, especially as they start from second not the LDs
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    Oh and I can't see there being a pact, because none of the big three parties do that. There would be significant downsides to implementing a stitch up/pact, and reducing the governments majority by two is not worth the political flack that a pact would bring.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,229
    QTWTAIN, and I don’t think it matters, the Tories will lose anyway. I suggest the concrete/Sunak/Keegan stuff will hit home more than many a political story. News about Tamworth isn’t going to help the Conservatives take back control of the news agenda either. Lay the Conservatives in the Mid Beds by-election.
  • Listening to the Gillian Keegan thing.., very strong Kevin "I'd bloody love it if we beat them" Keegan energy there.

    Are they related?
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    148grss said:

    Surely this should be one of the biggest policy issues facing the next government? I don't really see anything from Labour or the Tories that address this, as the article itself mentions.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/sep/04/poor-people-surviving-not-living-as-uk-social-contract-collapses-says-report

    It basically comes down to housing. If that was cheap peoples standard of living could be a lot better. Build, build, build, and stop deliberately inflating asset prices gets my vote.
    That's not the only solution (although it should be part of it). Those houses would need to be affordable housing, ideally council houses, and alongside that you need to actually look at landlords and rent control. If landlords want to offload their properties local government should also be allowed to buy them, especially if they are ex right to buy council properties in the first place.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,618
    edited September 2023

    Yes, can't see either party standing down. Labour definitely feel we're a clear 2nd with a shot at winning, and the betting markets have been moving steadily that way (down from 6 to 3.5) - suspect there's a crossover to come.

    Possibly, though, there will be a Tory win that will be a lesson for both of us what happens in this kind of seat where Labour are clearly second but the LibDems reckon they can come through. But I'm hopeful that much of the Tory vote won't come out. A Lab/LD/Con finish would be fun!

    I think if the Libs and Labs can't agree some sort of pact, they both deserve to lose. They need a strategy for quasi three-way marginals. FPP is about playing the game – rather than pretending the system doesn't exist.
  • If this were the general election, this would be a straight Con / Lab fight.

    It’s only the special circumstances of a by-election which gives the LDs a (strong) chance.

    The problem is that neither party can afford to step back. Keir can’t afford to throw this away, and the LDs need every seat they can get.

    We need an independent poll.
  • Interestingly, Ed Davey mentions in his Rest is Politics interview that he barely knows Keir Starmer.

    Doesn’t bode well for a coalition government.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,578

    First rule of entering a TV or radio studio... treat every mic as a live mic.

    What people are trying to claim is Keegan did - she actually wanted this outburst out there.
  • Yes, can't see either party standing down. Labour definitely feel we're a clear 2nd with a shot at winning, and the betting markets have been moving steadily that way (down from 6 to 3.5) - suspect there's a crossover to come.

    Possibly, though, there will be a Tory win that will be a lesson for both of us what happens in this kind of seat where Labour are clearly second but the LibDems reckon they can come through. But I'm hopeful that much of the Tory vote won't come out. A Lab/LD/Con finish would be fun!

    I think id the Libs and Labs can't agree some sort of pact, they both deserve to lose. They need a strategy for quasi three-way marginals. FPP is about playing the game – rather than pretending the system doesn't exist.
    Meh. They didn't bother in Little & Sad or in Eastleigh before the 1997 election, and it still turned into a tactical voting fiesta at the General Election.

    In a change election, voters decide on the ground in each seat, and parties with limited resources in a region tend to go where they have the best chance.

    By-elections are sui generis... activists all over the country have the scent of blood in their nostrils and you just have to have the set piece battle. Realistically, neither Starmer nor Davey can call off their dogs without badly losing face in their parties, and it doesn't matter much in the bigger scheme of things.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,806

    Interestingly, Ed Davey mentions in his Rest is Politics interview that he barely knows Keir Starmer.

    Doesn’t bode well for a coalition government.

    Not quite Blair-Ashdown, is it?

    Mind you, were Cameron and Clegg chums before 2015?
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,320
    edited September 2023
    (deleted - already discussed!)
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,858

    If this were the general election, this would be a straight Con / Lab fight.

    It’s only the special circumstances of a by-election which gives the LDs a (strong) chance.

    The problem is that neither party can afford to step back. Keir can’t afford to throw this away, and the LDs need every seat they can get.

    We need an independent poll.

    If this were a GE it would be a Tory hold. It is something like 250 on the Lab target list. That would be wipe out territory for the Tories.
  • Selebian said:

    Interestingly, Ed Davey mentions in his Rest is Politics interview that he barely knows Keir Starmer.

    Doesn’t bode well for a coalition government.

    Not quite Blair-Ashdown, is it?

    Mind you, were Cameron and Clegg chums before 2015?
    What did Ashdown really get out of it, though? He was the fall back option Blair ended up not needing.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,664
    If there’s going to be any sort of pact, it’ll have to be the LDs standing down. Which is why they’re trying hard to ramp the opposite.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,401
    edited September 2023

    Interestingly, Ed Davey mentions in his Rest is Politics interview that he barely knows Keir Starmer.

    Doesn’t bode well for a coalition government.


    Provided he gains enough SNP seats Starmer likely won't need to consider a UK coalition government with the LDs, even if Labour fail to win enough Tory seats in England for a majority in England
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,618

    Yes, can't see either party standing down. Labour definitely feel we're a clear 2nd with a shot at winning, and the betting markets have been moving steadily that way (down from 6 to 3.5) - suspect there's a crossover to come.

    Possibly, though, there will be a Tory win that will be a lesson for both of us what happens in this kind of seat where Labour are clearly second but the LibDems reckon they can come through. But I'm hopeful that much of the Tory vote won't come out. A Lab/LD/Con finish would be fun!

    I think id the Libs and Labs can't agree some sort of pact, they both deserve to lose. They need a strategy for quasi three-way marginals. FPP is about playing the game – rather than pretending the system doesn't exist.
    Meh. They didn't bother in Little & Sad or in Eastleigh before the 1997 election, and it still turned into a tactical voting fiesta at the General Election.

    In a change election, voters decide on the ground in each seat, and parties with limited resources in a region tend to go where they have the best chance.

    By-elections are sui generis... activists all over the country have the scent of blood in their nostrils and you just have to have the set piece battle. Realistically, neither Starmer nor Davey can call off their dogs without badly losing face in their parties, and it doesn't matter much in the bigger scheme of things.
    Well it certainly will matter if the Tories come through the middle, allowing Sunak to claim a 'famous victory'.
  • Selebian said:

    Interestingly, Ed Davey mentions in his Rest is Politics interview that he barely knows Keir Starmer.

    Doesn’t bode well for a coalition government.

    Not quite Blair-Ashdown, is it?

    Mind you, were Cameron and Clegg chums before 2015?
    Weren't they like two boys squabbling at bathtime?
  • 148grss said:

    148grss said:

    Surely this should be one of the biggest policy issues facing the next government? I don't really see anything from Labour or the Tories that address this, as the article itself mentions.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/sep/04/poor-people-surviving-not-living-as-uk-social-contract-collapses-says-report

    It basically comes down to housing. If that was cheap peoples standard of living could be a lot better. Build, build, build, and stop deliberately inflating asset prices gets my vote.
    That's not the only solution (although it should be part of it). Those houses would need to be affordable housing, ideally council houses, and alongside that you need to actually look at landlords and rent control. If landlords want to offload their properties local government should also be allowed to buy them, especially if they are ex right to buy council properties in the first place.
    I think it is impossible to fix it without fixing housing. So sure not the only thing that has to be done, but the starting point with various plausible routes when significantly more housing and lower housing costs.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,468

    Yes, can't see either party standing down. Labour definitely feel we're a clear 2nd with a shot at winning, and the betting markets have been moving steadily that way (down from 6 to 3.5) - suspect there's a crossover to come.

    Possibly, though, there will be a Tory win that will be a lesson for both of us what happens in this kind of seat where Labour are clearly second but the LibDems reckon they can come through. But I'm hopeful that much of the Tory vote won't come out. A Lab/LD/Con finish would be fun!

    I think id the Libs and Labs can't agree some sort of pact, they both deserve to lose. They need a strategy for quasi three-way marginals. FPP is about playing the game – rather than pretending the system doesn't exist.
    Meh. They didn't bother in Little & Sad or in Eastleigh before the 1997 election, and it still turned into a tactical voting fiesta at the General Election.

    In a change election, voters decide on the ground in each seat, and parties with limited resources in a region tend to go where they have the best chance.

    By-elections are sui generis... activists all over the country have the scent of blood in their nostrils and you just have to have the set piece battle. Realistically, neither Starmer nor Davey can call off their dogs without badly losing face in their parties, and it doesn't matter much in the bigger scheme of things.
    Well it certainly will matter if the Tories come through the middle, allowing Sunak to claim a 'famous victory'.
    Not sure what a change election is, however iirc in 1997 there were a number of "vote swap" agreements in neighbouring constituencies.

    Ed Davey himself had one.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,576
    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    Surely this should be one of the biggest policy issues facing the next government? I don't really see anything from Labour or the Tories that address this, as the article itself mentions.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/sep/04/poor-people-surviving-not-living-as-uk-social-contract-collapses-says-report

    It basically comes down to housing. If that was cheap peoples standard of living could be a lot better. Build, build, build, and stop deliberately inflating asset prices gets my vote.
    That's not the only solution (although it should be part of it). Those houses would need to be affordable housing, ideally council houses, and alongside that you need to actually look at landlords and rent control. If landlords want to offload their properties local government should also be allowed to buy them, especially if they are ex right to buy council properties in the first place.
    Rent controls have proved very very successful, in a number of countries.

    At removing housing from the market.

    Google what happened in the New York.
  • Yes, can't see either party standing down. Labour definitely feel we're a clear 2nd with a shot at winning, and the betting markets have been moving steadily that way (down from 6 to 3.5) - suspect there's a crossover to come.

    Possibly, though, there will be a Tory win that will be a lesson for both of us what happens in this kind of seat where Labour are clearly second but the LibDems reckon they can come through. But I'm hopeful that much of the Tory vote won't come out. A Lab/LD/Con finish would be fun!

    I think id the Libs and Labs can't agree some sort of pact, they both deserve to lose. They need a strategy for quasi three-way marginals. FPP is about playing the game – rather than pretending the system doesn't exist.
    Meh. They didn't bother in Little & Sad or in Eastleigh before the 1997 election, and it still turned into a tactical voting fiesta at the General Election.

    In a change election, voters decide on the ground in each seat, and parties with limited resources in a region tend to go where they have the best chance.

    By-elections are sui generis... activists all over the country have the scent of blood in their nostrils and you just have to have the set piece battle. Realistically, neither Starmer nor Davey can call off their dogs without badly losing face in their parties, and it doesn't matter much in the bigger scheme of things.
    Well it certainly will matter if the Tories come through the middle, allowing Sunak to claim a 'famous victory'.
    Not in the bigger scheme of things. How much of a boost has Uxbridge given to the Tories?

    And equally the Tories could well come a humiliating third - as in Little & Sad and Eastleigh.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,320
    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    Surely this should be one of the biggest policy issues facing the next government? I don't really see anything from Labour or the Tories that address this, as the article itself mentions.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/sep/04/poor-people-surviving-not-living-as-uk-social-contract-collapses-says-report

    It basically comes down to housing. If that was cheap peoples standard of living could be a lot better. Build, build, build, and stop deliberately inflating asset prices gets my vote.
    That's not the only solution (although it should be part of it). Those houses would need to be affordable housing, ideally council houses, and alongside that you need to actually look at landlords and rent control. If landlords want to offload their properties local government should also be allowed to buy them, especially if they are ex right to buy council properties in the first place.
    Local government are allowed to buy them. Or at least I assume they are since I get a slow but steady drip of announcements from my city council about the latest house they’ve bought & turned into council housing.

    The trouble is that councils buying up housing stock doesn’t alter the quantity of available housing.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    Sandpit said:

    boulay said:

    For those who don’t know what a passbook is here is mine from 1985 which my mother found the other week in some of my late old man’s belongings as an illustration.







    And this is what we are expecting banks to maintain?

    I've heard it all now.
    What the hell is the frigging point of one of those in this day and age?

    Seems even more pointless than chequebooks.

    Never had one.
    Its an age and wealth thing.

    None of my kids carry cash, I carry cash and cards. They slag me off for carrying cash, bur very so often they get caught short and I dont.

    The better off are likely to use e payment, the less well off less so.

    Cash will probably have its day but until we have covered access to all I see no reason to accelerate it,

    Do parents these days give their teenage kids pocket money as a bank transfer?
    Any money my son earns through doing work around the house gets paid by bank transfer. He has even asked gifts to be paid by BACS (from relatives etc) as cash just burns a hole in his pocket. He's found saving much easier since we abolished cash entirely.
    That's interesting, I always assumed that the problem is the otherway round. You have much less of a feeling how much you are spending when paying with a card or an app, which i would have thought easily leads to overspending. I was in the UK last month and it was annoying how many barstaff would hold the card reader with the amount being charged facing them, so I had to stand on tiptoes, lean over and read the price upside down.

    I guess the reality is some people have more of a problem overspending with cash in the pocket and others more of a problem overspending with cashless payment.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,578

    Interestingly, Ed Davey mentions in his Rest is Politics interview that he barely knows Keir Starmer.

    Doesn’t bode well for a coalition government.

    I disagree. Would you say the same thing about any marriage - the water needs to already be boiling when you put it on the stove?

    The opposite is true, the secret to a successful marriage is to keep regularly dating as though you barely know each other.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,618

    Yes, can't see either party standing down. Labour definitely feel we're a clear 2nd with a shot at winning, and the betting markets have been moving steadily that way (down from 6 to 3.5) - suspect there's a crossover to come.

    Possibly, though, there will be a Tory win that will be a lesson for both of us what happens in this kind of seat where Labour are clearly second but the LibDems reckon they can come through. But I'm hopeful that much of the Tory vote won't come out. A Lab/LD/Con finish would be fun!

    I think id the Libs and Labs can't agree some sort of pact, they both deserve to lose. They need a strategy for quasi three-way marginals. FPP is about playing the game – rather than pretending the system doesn't exist.
    Meh. They didn't bother in Little & Sad or in Eastleigh before the 1997 election, and it still turned into a tactical voting fiesta at the General Election.

    In a change election, voters decide on the ground in each seat, and parties with limited resources in a region tend to go where they have the best chance.

    By-elections are sui generis... activists all over the country have the scent of blood in their nostrils and you just have to have the set piece battle. Realistically, neither Starmer nor Davey can call off their dogs without badly losing face in their parties, and it doesn't matter much in the bigger scheme of things.
    Well it certainly will matter if the Tories come through the middle, allowing Sunak to claim a 'famous victory'.
    Not in the bigger scheme of things. How much of a boost has Uxbridge given to the Tories?

    And equally the Tories could well come a humiliating third - as in Little & Sad and Eastleigh.
    Well it certainly led them to drone on about the Ulez-x for weeks on bloody end. I mean, just witness the turgid monomania from the PB Tories, right here on PB.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,229
    edited September 2023
    The forthcoming Dutch election looks interesting. I don’t know if there any markets available. Polling is led by a brand new party led by Omzigt, who was in the Christian Democrats, but played a key role in revealing the Dutch benefits scandal, their equivalent of the Post Office affair here. He’s offering a platform of reform and good governance, fairly anti-immigration but linked to a strengthened welfare state. Like a left wing Reform UK???

    The previous brand new Dutch party, the BBB, who shocked everyone by winning in the recent regional elections, are plummeting in the polls. Meanwhile, Labour and the Greens are putting up a joint list, which has put them second in the polls. They’re just ahead of the VVD, who have been the largest party in the ruling coalition for many years. They’ve got a new leader who was born in Turkey, perhaps significant when immigration arguments brought down the last government. The VVD have been shifting to the right.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,468
    148grss said:

    FPT

    Ed Davey comes off moderately well in his long form interview with Alistair Campbell and Rory Stewart.

    I’m not convinced that liberalism is about “holding powerful people to account”, though.

    How many people know Ed Davey’s life story?
    I’ve said before, he needs to ditch the suit and tie and only wear outdoors gear for public appearances. A subliminal cue that he’s not a pampered southern softie who will privatise your water supply.

    Harold Wilson had his pipe.
    Davey needs his weather-proof gilet.

    I still think the best thing he could do would be step down and help coronate Daisy Cooper. She's much more charismatic, would stand out more on a debate stage with SKS and Rishi, and also isn't tainted by the coalition years. She'd be much more comfortable attacking SKS from the "soft left" whilst still being "reasonable" enough for Tory voters. Yes she represents a highly remain seat and that could put off some of those target seat voters who are considering the LDs, but if you're a Tory voter thinking about voting LD then that can't be high on your priorities anyway. I also think she'd be willing to advocate for more spending and progressive tax reform, something that SKS has chucked that a lot of people (even Tories) would support. She's not from the Orange Book crowd (who are all basically Tories now anyway) and is much more in the vein of Paddy Ashdown or Charles Kennedy (without the drinking). Davey is just another not particularly charismatic middle aged guy who has been around too long. He has done well to put the LDs in the position it is in, but I don't think he is the politician best to capitalise on it in a GE.
    Ed Davey is basically a Tory? Not sure.

    He wrote the "Liberalism and localism" chapter in the Orange Book.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    MattW said:

    Yes, can't see either party standing down. Labour definitely feel we're a clear 2nd with a shot at winning, and the betting markets have been moving steadily that way (down from 6 to 3.5) - suspect there's a crossover to come.

    Possibly, though, there will be a Tory win that will be a lesson for both of us what happens in this kind of seat where Labour are clearly second but the LibDems reckon they can come through. But I'm hopeful that much of the Tory vote won't come out. A Lab/LD/Con finish would be fun!

    I think id the Libs and Labs can't agree some sort of pact, they both deserve to lose. They need a strategy for quasi three-way marginals. FPP is about playing the game – rather than pretending the system doesn't exist.
    Meh. They didn't bother in Little & Sad or in Eastleigh before the 1997 election, and it still turned into a tactical voting fiesta at the General Election.

    In a change election, voters decide on the ground in each seat, and parties with limited resources in a region tend to go where they have the best chance.

    By-elections are sui generis... activists all over the country have the scent of blood in their nostrils and you just have to have the set piece battle. Realistically, neither Starmer nor Davey can call off their dogs without badly losing face in their parties, and it doesn't matter much in the bigger scheme of things.
    Well it certainly will matter if the Tories come through the middle, allowing Sunak to claim a 'famous victory'.
    Not sure what a change election is, however iirc in 1997 there were a number of "vote swap" agreements in neighbouring constituencies.

    Ed Davey himself had one.
    Vote swapping was only a voter decision though. Lab and LD agreeing to only put up one candidate means is bound to piss off the core vote of one of the two parties in that constituenvy.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    Yes, can't see either party standing down. Labour definitely feel we're a clear 2nd with a shot at winning, and the betting markets have been moving steadily that way (down from 6 to 3.5) - suspect there's a crossover to come.

    Possibly, though, there will be a Tory win that will be a lesson for both of us what happens in this kind of seat where Labour are clearly second but the LibDems reckon they can come through. But I'm hopeful that much of the Tory vote won't come out. A Lab/LD/Con finish would be fun!

    I think id the Libs and Labs can't agree some sort of pact, they both deserve to lose. They need a strategy for quasi three-way marginals. FPP is about playing the game – rather than pretending the system doesn't exist.
    Meh. They didn't bother in Little & Sad or in Eastleigh before the 1997 election, and it still turned into a tactical voting fiesta at the General Election.

    In a change election, voters decide on the ground in each seat, and parties with limited resources in a region tend to go where they have the best chance.

    By-elections are sui generis... activists all over the country have the scent of blood in their nostrils and you just have to have the set piece battle. Realistically, neither Starmer nor Davey can call off their dogs without badly losing face in their parties, and it doesn't matter much in the bigger scheme of things.
    Well it certainly will matter if the Tories come through the middle, allowing Sunak to claim a 'famous victory'.
    If that happens it will matter for about 7 days.
  • ULEZ has already gone off the political map, it will long term be irrelevant
  • TRUSS IS BACK!!!

    Just rejoice at that news.

    With every day that passes, it's becoming clearer why she beat Sunak.
  • eristdoof said:

    MattW said:

    Yes, can't see either party standing down. Labour definitely feel we're a clear 2nd with a shot at winning, and the betting markets have been moving steadily that way (down from 6 to 3.5) - suspect there's a crossover to come.

    Possibly, though, there will be a Tory win that will be a lesson for both of us what happens in this kind of seat where Labour are clearly second but the LibDems reckon they can come through. But I'm hopeful that much of the Tory vote won't come out. A Lab/LD/Con finish would be fun!

    I think id the Libs and Labs can't agree some sort of pact, they both deserve to lose. They need a strategy for quasi three-way marginals. FPP is about playing the game – rather than pretending the system doesn't exist.
    Meh. They didn't bother in Little & Sad or in Eastleigh before the 1997 election, and it still turned into a tactical voting fiesta at the General Election.

    In a change election, voters decide on the ground in each seat, and parties with limited resources in a region tend to go where they have the best chance.

    By-elections are sui generis... activists all over the country have the scent of blood in their nostrils and you just have to have the set piece battle. Realistically, neither Starmer nor Davey can call off their dogs without badly losing face in their parties, and it doesn't matter much in the bigger scheme of things.
    Well it certainly will matter if the Tories come through the middle, allowing Sunak to claim a 'famous victory'.
    Not sure what a change election is, however iirc in 1997 there were a number of "vote swap" agreements in neighbouring constituencies.

    Ed Davey himself had one.
    Vote swapping was only a voter decision though. Lab and LD agreeing to only put up one candidate means is bound to piss off the core vote of one of the two parties in that constituenvy.
    That's simply not on the table anyway, though.

    Lib Dems on a constituency level have stood down for Greens in a few places and vice versa. But Labour has always been crystal clear that there is no way, and that if a local party proposed it they'd be disciplined and HQ would impose a Labour candidate anyway (I believe they did so in the Richmond Park by-election).

    At most, a "pact" would be about soft pedalling (and indeed Labour hasn't thrown the kitchen sink at some by-elections in this Parliament, and nor have the Lib Dems in other places). Anything beyond that is simply moot as hell hath not frozen over.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,578
    Scott_xP said:

    You are wrong Anabob. They were recorded on camera. There was a West Wing episode devoted to this that boiled down to don’t say anything ******* daft when recording equipment around, it’s down to politicians (and their handlers, who got the blame in the West Wing episode) to keep their wits about them.

    Except in the West Wing it was a deliberate "mistake"...
    Not in this particular episode. The President thinking recording had stopped, gave them a tape of something he shouldn’t have said as it was damaging to him.

    The Concrete Crisis is very much the same as the wall collapsing in The Loop - warned about it and did nothing about it. Right now the government are finding it hard to explain they acted very quickly on it as soon as they found out there was a problem, it’s very hard to give impression of quick response and on the case - Keegan herself was saying “I assure we will put a plan together, and deal with this.”

    And it’s got the decisions of the Primeminister, when in previous role of chancellor, right at the heart of the crisis.

    It’s very serious political crisis, perhaps even terminal for Sunak, I appreciate this now.
  • Not a good idea. Let the voters have their choice of LAB or LD.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,963

    Yes, can't see either party standing down. Labour definitely feel we're a clear 2nd with a shot at winning, and the betting markets have been moving steadily that way (down from 6 to 3.5) - suspect there's a crossover to come.

    Possibly, though, there will be a Tory win that will be a lesson for both of us what happens in this kind of seat where Labour are clearly second but the LibDems reckon they can come through. But I'm hopeful that much of the Tory vote won't come out. A Lab/LD/Con finish would be fun!

    I think if the Libs and Labs can't agree some sort of pact, they both deserve to lose. They need a strategy for quasi three-way marginals. FPP is about playing the game – rather than pretending the system doesn't exist.
    Why would Labour pretend it doesn't exist when it's thanks to them that it's still there?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,035

    Scott_xP said:

    You are wrong Anabob. They were recorded on camera. There was a West Wing episode devoted to this that boiled down to don’t say anything ******* daft when recording equipment around, it’s down to politicians (and their handlers, who got the blame in the West Wing episode) to keep their wits about them.

    Except in the West Wing it was a deliberate "mistake"...
    Not in this particular episode. The President thinking recording had stopped, gave them a tape of something he shouldn’t have said as it was damaging to him.
    Except it wasn't. It was damaging to his opponent.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939
    HYUFD said:

    Interestingly, Ed Davey mentions in his Rest is Politics interview that he barely knows Keir Starmer.

    Doesn’t bode well for a coalition government.


    Provided he gains enough SNP seats Starmer likely won't need to consider a UK coalition government with the LDs, even if Labour fail to win enough Tory seats in England for a majority in England
    It seems very likely to me that SKS will need his Scottish wins to get an overall majority so the Scottish vote will have proved crucial in determining the make up of a UK government. Which, of course, is the exactly opposite scenario of what the SNP have been whinging about for the last 13 years.

    I think it is pretty much inconceivable that the SNP will be able to push another referendum until the next Tory government which is probably 10 years away. Can they really hang around like a bad smell for that long? I suspect not. I think they will lose their majority in Holyrood as well, even with (or perhaps because of) their little green helpers.

    Although I do not particularly welcome a Labour government, especially one with as poor a shadow cabinet as SKS has, it may well prove what is required to break the logjam in Scotland.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,963

    eristdoof said:

    MattW said:

    Yes, can't see either party standing down. Labour definitely feel we're a clear 2nd with a shot at winning, and the betting markets have been moving steadily that way (down from 6 to 3.5) - suspect there's a crossover to come.

    Possibly, though, there will be a Tory win that will be a lesson for both of us what happens in this kind of seat where Labour are clearly second but the LibDems reckon they can come through. But I'm hopeful that much of the Tory vote won't come out. A Lab/LD/Con finish would be fun!

    I think id the Libs and Labs can't agree some sort of pact, they both deserve to lose. They need a strategy for quasi three-way marginals. FPP is about playing the game – rather than pretending the system doesn't exist.
    Meh. They didn't bother in Little & Sad or in Eastleigh before the 1997 election, and it still turned into a tactical voting fiesta at the General Election.

    In a change election, voters decide on the ground in each seat, and parties with limited resources in a region tend to go where they have the best chance.

    By-elections are sui generis... activists all over the country have the scent of blood in their nostrils and you just have to have the set piece battle. Realistically, neither Starmer nor Davey can call off their dogs without badly losing face in their parties, and it doesn't matter much in the bigger scheme of things.
    Well it certainly will matter if the Tories come through the middle, allowing Sunak to claim a 'famous victory'.
    Not sure what a change election is, however iirc in 1997 there were a number of "vote swap" agreements in neighbouring constituencies.

    Ed Davey himself had one.
    Vote swapping was only a voter decision though. Lab and LD agreeing to only put up one candidate means is bound to piss off the core vote of one of the two parties in that constituenvy.
    That's simply not on the table anyway, though.

    Lib Dems on a constituency level have stood down for Greens in a few places and vice versa. But Labour has always been crystal clear that there is no way, and that if a local party proposed it they'd be disciplined and HQ would impose a Labour candidate anyway (I believe they did so in the Richmond Park by-election).

    At most, a "pact" would be about soft pedalling (and indeed Labour hasn't thrown the kitchen sink at some by-elections in this Parliament, and nor have the Lib Dems in other places). Anything beyond that is simply moot as hell hath not frozen over.
    LibDems stood down for the Greens in the IOW, despite it being a past held seat, and now with two seats the Greens have selected candidates for both. So the LibDems will do the same. Another missed opportunity.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522
    edited September 2023

    First rule of entering a TV or radio studio... treat every mic as a live mic.

    What people are trying to claim is Keegan did - she actually wanted this outburst out there.
    Really.
    Why would you want everyone to hear you claim you’re doing a “fucking good job”, when you’re not - or is she even more stupid than she appears ?

    Particularly choice was … claims doing nothing jibe aimed at 'nobody in particular'.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,910
    eristdoof said:

    Sandpit said:

    boulay said:

    For those who don’t know what a passbook is here is mine from 1985 which my mother found the other week in some of my late old man’s belongings as an illustration.







    And this is what we are expecting banks to maintain?

    I've heard it all now.
    What the hell is the frigging point of one of those in this day and age?

    Seems even more pointless than chequebooks.

    Never had one.
    Its an age and wealth thing.

    None of my kids carry cash, I carry cash and cards. They slag me off for carrying cash, bur very so often they get caught short and I dont.

    The better off are likely to use e payment, the less well off less so.

    Cash will probably have its day but until we have covered access to all I see no reason to accelerate it,

    Do parents these days give their teenage kids pocket money as a bank transfer?
    Any money my son earns through doing work around the house gets paid by bank transfer. He has even asked gifts to be paid by BACS (from relatives etc) as cash just burns a hole in his pocket. He's found saving much easier since we abolished cash entirely.
    That's interesting, I always assumed that the problem is the otherway round. You have much less of a feeling how much you are spending when paying with a card or an app, which i would have thought easily leads to overspending. I was in the UK last month and it was annoying how many barstaff would hold the card reader with the amount being charged facing them, so I had to stand on tiptoes, lean over and read the price upside down.

    I guess the reality is some people have more of a problem overspending with cash in the pocket and others more of a problem overspending with cashless payment.
    I think my kids are a similar age to OLB's - and their issue with cash is keeping it in one place. Inevitably some of the abrogate the responsibility and hand their money over to me to keep in my wallet until they want to spend some of it, which inevitably gets muddled with my money, and I have to keep a running mental tally of how much of each daughter's money is mine. And that's without all the money scattered around their room in various piggy banks, money boxes etc which they have acquired over the years. It was a great relief when they started using cards.
  • TRUSS IS BACK!!!

    Just rejoice at that news.

    With every day that passes, it's becoming clearer why she beat Sunak.
    Sunak is bad, Truss was differently bad.

    Maybe there's some Monkey's Paw scenario where every ambitious Conservative gets to have a go at being PM and realises the job is cursed and, coupled with their own character flaws, it will destroy them.

    (OK, that's true for most people who become PM, it's the nature of the job, but it seems to be happening more rapidly now.)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,576
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    You are wrong Anabob. They were recorded on camera. There was a West Wing episode devoted to this that boiled down to don’t say anything ******* daft when recording equipment around, it’s down to politicians (and their handlers, who got the blame in the West Wing episode) to keep their wits about them.

    Except in the West Wing it was a deliberate "mistake"...
    Not in this particular episode. The President thinking recording had stopped, gave them a tape of something he shouldn’t have said as it was damaging to him.
    Except it wasn't. It was damaging to his opponent.
    Yup - and it was a deliberate jab at his opponent for re-election.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,468

    ULEZ has already gone off the political map, it will long term be irrelevant

    Seems so, except at nutjob peripheral.

    The line up on TalkTV was beyond gruesome:

    Mike Graham, Isabel Oakeshott, James Whale, and Alex Salmond. And one I don't recognise.
  • TRUSS IS BACK!!!

    Just rejoice at that news.

    With every day that passes, it's becoming clearer why she beat Sunak.
    Sunak is bad, Truss was differently bad.

    Maybe there's some Monkey's Paw scenario where every ambitious Conservative gets to have a go at being PM and realises the job is cursed and, coupled with their own character flaws, it will destroy them.

    (OK, that's true for most people who become PM, it's the nature of the job, but it seems to be happening more rapidly now.)
    Gillian Keegan could leverage her current profile into a leadership bid: "I'd be a ****ing good Prime Minister."
  • TRUSS IS BACK!!!

    Just rejoice at that news.

    With every day that passes, it's becoming clearer why she beat Sunak.
    The reason she beat Sunak is twofold:
    1) Rishi isn't that great: He is another Bozo overpromoted lightweight
    2) The Conservative Party membership is still riddled with swiveleyed loons who would believe the moon was made of blue cheese, provided Boris Johnson told them it was good old British Stilton and not any of that foreign rubbish.

    Yes, we are condemned to a government of the Anti-Business Public Sector obsessed Labour Party because a load of idiots thought Boris-fuck-business-Johnson was a suitable person to be PM.
  • Interesting leaflet received from David Duguid. I am disappointed to realise that I live (just) inside the new Aberdeenshire North and Moray East seat and thus lickspittle remains my MP.

    His leaflet says literally nothing about him or the government. Not a single claim of any description. The entire thing is that it is either him or the SNP so all loyal unionists must vote lickspittle or else be voting for independence.

    Whilst I get it, there is something inherently wrong with his offer if the only think he can say is "think about how bad it would be if the other lot win". Though I do think we will see a lot of this nationally...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,618
    Cookie said:

    eristdoof said:

    Sandpit said:

    boulay said:

    For those who don’t know what a passbook is here is mine from 1985 which my mother found the other week in some of my late old man’s belongings as an illustration.







    And this is what we are expecting banks to maintain?

    I've heard it all now.
    What the hell is the frigging point of one of those in this day and age?

    Seems even more pointless than chequebooks.

    Never had one.
    Its an age and wealth thing.

    None of my kids carry cash, I carry cash and cards. They slag me off for carrying cash, bur very so often they get caught short and I dont.

    The better off are likely to use e payment, the less well off less so.

    Cash will probably have its day but until we have covered access to all I see no reason to accelerate it,

    Do parents these days give their teenage kids pocket money as a bank transfer?
    Any money my son earns through doing work around the house gets paid by bank transfer. He has even asked gifts to be paid by BACS (from relatives etc) as cash just burns a hole in his pocket. He's found saving much easier since we abolished cash entirely.
    That's interesting, I always assumed that the problem is the otherway round. You have much less of a feeling how much you are spending when paying with a card or an app, which i would have thought easily leads to overspending. I was in the UK last month and it was annoying how many barstaff would hold the card reader with the amount being charged facing them, so I had to stand on tiptoes, lean over and read the price upside down.

    I guess the reality is some people have more of a problem overspending with cash in the pocket and others more of a problem overspending with cashless payment.
    I think my kids are a similar age to OLB's - and their issue with cash is keeping it in one place. Inevitably some of the abrogate the responsibility and hand their money over to me to keep in my wallet until they want to spend some of it, which inevitably gets muddled with my money, and I have to keep a running mental tally of how much of each daughter's money is mine. And that's without all the money scattered around their room in various piggy banks, money boxes etc which they have acquired over the years. It was a great relief when they started using cards.
    Another big problem with cash, right there. It really is a deeply flawed mode of tender.
  • Rule 1 of professionalism: Never put anything down in writing that you wouldn't want someone else to read.

    Rule 2 of professionalism: Never say anything in a recording etc that you wouldn't want someone else to see or hear.

    Anything you ever write or say, unless you absolutely need to write it or say it, imagine if this is Exhibit A for the prosecution against you. If you wouldn't want that, don't write it down or say it.

    There's no such thing as "off the record" when you're being recorded. Just be a bloody professional, how tough is that?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,618
    ....
  • Rule 1 of professionalism: Never put anything down in writing that you wouldn't want someone else to read.

    Rule 2 of professionalism: Never say anything in a recording etc that you wouldn't want someone else to see or hear.

    Anything you ever write or say, unless you absolutely need to write it or say it, imagine if this is Exhibit A for the prosecution against you. If you wouldn't want that, don't write it down or say it.

    There's no such thing as "off the record" when you're being recorded. Just be a bloody professional, how tough is that?

    She's a Tory minister, so nigh on impossible.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    edited September 2023

    Scott_xP said:

    You are wrong Anabob. They were recorded on camera. There was a West Wing episode devoted to this that boiled down to don’t say anything ******* daft when recording equipment around, it’s down to politicians (and their handlers, who got the blame in the West Wing episode) to keep their wits about them.

    Except in the West Wing it was a deliberate "mistake"...
    Not in this particular episode. The President thinking recording had stopped, gave them a tape of something he shouldn’t have said as it was damaging to him.

    The Concrete Crisis is very much the same as the wall collapsing in The Loop - warned about it and did nothing about it. Right now the government are finding it hard to explain they acted very quickly on it as soon as they found out there was a problem, it’s very hard to give impression of quick response and on the case - Keegan herself was saying “I assure we will put a plan together, and deal with this.”

    And it’s got the decisions of the Primeminister, when in previous role of chancellor, right at the heart of the crisis.

    It’s very serious political crisis, perhaps even terminal for Sunak, I appreciate this now.
    You are confusing The West Wing episode 'The U.S. Poet Laureate' with the Yes, Prime Minister episode 'The Tangled Web.'
  • MattW said:

    ULEZ has already gone off the political map, it will long term be irrelevant

    Seems so, except at nutjob peripheral.

    The line up on TalkTV was beyond gruesome:

    Mike Graham, Isabel Oakeshott, James Whale, and Alex Salmond. And one I don't recognise.
    Nutjob Peripheral? Romford, you mean? (We are peripheral to London, and...)

    There are people trying to push the issue, including our (for practical purposes non) Member of Parliament, but I suspect they are increasingly talking to themselves and haven't noticed others wandering off.

    The false steer comes because a smallish number of very cross people make more noise than a larger number of people shrugging their shoulders in resignation/acceptance.
  • Labour leads by 16% nationally.

    Westminster VI (3 September):

    Labour 44% (–)
    Conservative 28% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 14% (+2)
    Reform UK 6% (-1)
    Green 4% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 27 August


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1698727622660792654
  • Labour leads by 16% nationally.

    Westminster VI (3 September):

    Labour 44% (–)
    Conservative 28% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 14% (+2)
    Reform UK 6% (-1)
    Green 4% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 27 August


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1698727622660792654

    They're no fun any more.
  • Nigelb said:

    First rule of entering a TV or radio studio... treat every mic as a live mic.

    What people are trying to claim is Keegan did - she actually wanted this outburst out there.
    Really.
    Why would you want everyone to hear you claim you’re doing a “fucking good job”, when you’re not - or is she even more stupid than she appears ?

    Particularly choice was … claims doing nothing jibe aimed at 'nobody in particular'.
    Thats harsh, I accept Rishi was sitting on his arse doing nothing, but calling the PM "nobody in particular" is quite unwarranted.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,032
    Phil said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    Surely this should be one of the biggest policy issues facing the next government? I don't really see anything from Labour or the Tories that address this, as the article itself mentions.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/sep/04/poor-people-surviving-not-living-as-uk-social-contract-collapses-says-report

    It basically comes down to housing. If that was cheap peoples standard of living could be a lot better. Build, build, build, and stop deliberately inflating asset prices gets my vote.
    That's not the only solution (although it should be part of it). Those houses would need to be affordable housing, ideally council houses, and alongside that you need to actually look at landlords and rent control. If landlords want to offload their properties local government should also be allowed to buy them, especially if they are ex right to buy council properties in the first place.
    Local government are allowed to buy them. Or at least I assume they are since I get a slow but steady drip of announcements from my city council about the latest house they’ve bought & turned into council housing.

    The trouble is that councils buying up housing stock doesn’t alter the quantity of available housing.
    It does, to some extent, because it stops then being turned into AirBNBs and other short term holiday lets.

    But that's not nearly as good as building new council houses. And it would only be significant in some areas, such as Edinburgh or Cornwall.
  • HYUFD said:

    This chyron probably wasn’t part of the No 10 back-to-school media strategy



    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1698692502906122732

    Meanwhile, stand by for the Mail to pin the whole fiasco on Remote Working;

    Timeline:

    DfE became aware of the RAAC issue early in August

    Keegan instructed officials to investigate

    While that work was ongoing, on August 25th she flew to Spain to celebrate her father’s birthday, staying in a holiday home she owns there

    While she was in Spain, she worked on RAAC via video conferencing each day, her office said

    This was equivalent to working from home, just abroad, an ally says

    She led ‘gold’ calls, attended by ministers Nick Gibb and Baroness Barran back home in London

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1698683447022117024?s=20

    It's not fair to blame GK for any of this. But since when has politics been fair?
    A scape goat is going to need to be sacrificed soon, to take the heat off Rishi.

    It will be bad news for Labour and the Opposition parties if Concrete Crisis brings down Rishi Sunak. A replacement as PM and HomeSec from moderate wing the party (Hunt PM, Penny HomSec) and 12 months talking about tackling unfair privilege in country today and being a government of aspiration and reform would save 50-100 Tory seats imo.

    It’s funny how Concrete Crisis can work out so good for the Tories, if it helps them replace Sunak.
    Remainer Hunt replacing Leaver Sunak as Tory leader and PM guarantees a doubling of the RefUK vote and risks near wipeout for the Tories
    This one post from you sums up your whole mistake right now HY.

    In this electoral situation you arguing Tories need to be Reform and Brexit fixated.

    I am explained the exact opposite to you, a position you should adopt. Chasing Grey Wall, Brexit voter and Reform voter gets you 28% tops at next General Election. You are actively ushering in a political sea change by decimating your return of MPs.

    50-100 MPs can be saved, a far better Proportion of vote by going in the opposite direction. So many leave voters want a sane, convincing safe pair of hands PM right now, reform minded voters want a Tory HomSec who can get a grip, and there are millions of voters you are just handing to Labour, who would be just as happy to keep in an aspirational Tory government intent on reform.

    You are misreading the political mood of the country. The Tories can be in a much better place switching to aspiration and reform, rather than chase UKIP and Reform voters.
    Completely agreed!

    Brexit is done, finished with. Anyone still obsessing over it, either way, is an absolute loon and should be disgarded.

    What matters is aspiration and reform.

    What matters more is that the Tories have abandoned aspiration and reform.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Another senior police officer bites the dust - Simon Byrne in Northern Ireland, over Sinn Feinn interference, amongst other things.
  • Forcing asylum seekers onto diseased prison ship or flying them to a nation where they won’t be safe: no amount of pounds is too many pounds

    Repairing schools so they don’t fall on kids: well hold on now we’re not made of money


    https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1698647260509171764
  • Labour leads by 16% nationally.

    Westminster VI (3 September):

    Labour 44% (–)
    Conservative 28% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 14% (+2)
    Reform UK 6% (-1)
    Green 4% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 27 August


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1698727622660792654

    14 quite high for the LDs in recent times. Is Ed Davey the new quiet man?
  • How would British voters rate Rishi Sunak's performance on his five pledges, on a scale of 0 (complete failure) to 5 (complete success)? (Avg. Score)

    Halving Inflation 1.8

    Growing the Economy 1.8

    Reducing Nat'l Debt 1.6

    Cutting NHS Waiting Lists 1.4

    Stopping Small Boats 1.3




    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1698728935087882501/photo/1
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,910

    Cookie said:

    eristdoof said:

    Sandpit said:

    boulay said:

    For those who don’t know what a passbook is here is mine from 1985 which my mother found the other week in some of my late old man’s belongings as an illustration.







    And this is what we are expecting banks to maintain?

    I've heard it all now.
    What the hell is the frigging point of one of those in this day and age?

    Seems even more pointless than chequebooks.

    Never had one.
    Its an age and wealth thing.

    None of my kids carry cash, I carry cash and cards. They slag me off for carrying cash, bur very so often they get caught short and I dont.

    The better off are likely to use e payment, the less well off less so.

    Cash will probably have its day but until we have covered access to all I see no reason to accelerate it,

    Do parents these days give their teenage kids pocket money as a bank transfer?
    Any money my son earns through doing work around the house gets paid by bank transfer. He has even asked gifts to be paid by BACS (from relatives etc) as cash just burns a hole in his pocket. He's found saving much easier since we abolished cash entirely.
    That's interesting, I always assumed that the problem is the otherway round. You have much less of a feeling how much you are spending when paying with a card or an app, which i would have thought easily leads to overspending. I was in the UK last month and it was annoying how many barstaff would hold the card reader with the amount being charged facing them, so I had to stand on tiptoes, lean over and read the price upside down.

    I guess the reality is some people have more of a problem overspending with cash in the pocket and others more of a problem overspending with cashless payment.
    I think my kids are a similar age to OLB's - and their issue with cash is keeping it in one place. Inevitably some of the abrogate the responsibility and hand their money over to me to keep in my wallet until they want to spend some of it, which inevitably gets muddled with my money, and I have to keep a running mental tally of how much of each daughter's money is mine. And that's without all the money scattered around their room in various piggy banks, money boxes etc which they have acquired over the years. It was a great relief when they started using cards.
    Another big problem with cash, right there. It really is a deeply flawed mode of tender.
    Cash isn't 'deeply flawed', just as a notepad and pen isn't deeply flawed despite the presence of word processing software. Cash, cards, phones (I guess) - all have their advantages and drawbacks.
    Despite the inconveniences above, I'm not going to be giving my 8 year old a bank card, because she will lose it.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,910

    Interesting leaflet received from David Duguid. I am disappointed to realise that I live (just) inside the new Aberdeenshire North and Moray East seat and thus lickspittle remains my MP.

    His leaflet says literally nothing about him or the government. Not a single claim of any description. The entire thing is that it is either him or the SNP so all loyal unionists must vote lickspittle or else be voting for independence.

    Whilst I get it, there is something inherently wrong with his offer if the only think he can say is "think about how bad it would be if the other lot win". Though I do think we will see a lot of this nationally...

    I don't think that's a particular issue with David Duguid but with FPTP.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,032

    HYUFD said:

    This chyron probably wasn’t part of the No 10 back-to-school media strategy



    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1698692502906122732

    Meanwhile, stand by for the Mail to pin the whole fiasco on Remote Working;

    Timeline:

    DfE became aware of the RAAC issue early in August

    Keegan instructed officials to investigate

    While that work was ongoing, on August 25th she flew to Spain to celebrate her father’s birthday, staying in a holiday home she owns there

    While she was in Spain, she worked on RAAC via video conferencing each day, her office said

    This was equivalent to working from home, just abroad, an ally says

    She led ‘gold’ calls, attended by ministers Nick Gibb and Baroness Barran back home in London

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1698683447022117024?s=20

    It's not fair to blame GK for any of this. But since when has politics been fair?
    A scape goat is going to need to be sacrificed soon, to take the heat off Rishi.

    It will be bad news for Labour and the Opposition parties if Concrete Crisis brings down Rishi Sunak. A replacement as PM and HomeSec from moderate wing the party (Hunt PM, Penny HomSec) and 12 months talking about tackling unfair privilege in country today and being a government of aspiration and reform would save 50-100 Tory seats imo.

    It’s funny how Concrete Crisis can work out so good for the Tories, if it helps them replace Sunak.
    Remainer Hunt replacing Leaver Sunak as Tory leader and PM guarantees a doubling of the RefUK vote and risks near wipeout for the Tories
    This one post from you sums up your whole mistake right now HY.

    In this electoral situation you arguing Tories need to be Reform and Brexit fixated.

    I am explained the exact opposite to you, a position you should adopt. Chasing Grey Wall, Brexit voter and Reform voter gets you 28% tops at next General Election. You are actively ushering in a political sea change by decimating your return of MPs.

    50-100 MPs can be saved, a far better Proportion of vote by going in the opposite direction. So many leave voters want a sane, convincing safe pair of hands PM right now, reform minded voters want a Tory HomSec who can get a grip, and there are millions of voters you are just handing to Labour, who would be just as happy to keep in an aspirational Tory government intent on reform.

    You are misreading the political mood of the country. The Tories can be in a much better place switching to aspiration and reform, rather than chase UKIP and Reform voters.
    Completely agreed!

    Brexit is done, finished with. Anyone still obsessing over it, either way, is an absolute loon and should be disgarded.

    What matters is aspiration and reform.

    What matters more is that the Tories have abandoned aspiration and reform.
    Anyone who regards Brexit as finished at a time when major customs procedures have to be established, with unknown effects still to be seen, isn't showing the most elevated critical faculty, on the other hand.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,196

    Labour leads by 16% nationally.

    Westminster VI (3 September):

    Labour 44% (–)
    Conservative 28% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 14% (+2)
    Reform UK 6% (-1)
    Green 4% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 27 August


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1698727622660792654

    LD increasing...

    Dutch Salute intensifies
  • How would British voters rate Rishi Sunak's performance on his five pledges, on a scale of 0 (complete failure) to 5 (complete success)? (Avg. Score)

    Halving Inflation 1.8

    Growing the Economy 1.8

    Reducing Nat'l Debt 1.6

    Cutting NHS Waiting Lists 1.4

    Stopping Small Boats 1.3




    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1698728935087882501/photo/1

    The generosity of the great British public continues.
  • Well this tweet from 2019 is going viral, Starmer has appointed a bigot as Shadow Justice Secretary.




    https://twitter.com/benjaminbutter/status/1102715728489263116
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,032
    edited September 2023
    Cookie said:

    Interesting leaflet received from David Duguid. I am disappointed to realise that I live (just) inside the new Aberdeenshire North and Moray East seat and thus lickspittle remains my MP.

    His leaflet says literally nothing about him or the government. Not a single claim of any description. The entire thing is that it is either him or the SNP so all loyal unionists must vote lickspittle or else be voting for independence.

    Whilst I get it, there is something inherently wrong with his offer if the only think he can say is "think about how bad it would be if the other lot win". Though I do think we will see a lot of this nationally...

    I don't think that's a particular issue with David Duguid but with FPTP.
    Basically Ruth Davidson Say No to Indyref Party redux, only poor Mr Ross doesn't get superstar billing.

    This is a MP. Ergo talking about a GE. Who can't name a single policy to tempt the voter, other than saying no to indyref.
  • .
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    This chyron probably wasn’t part of the No 10 back-to-school media strategy



    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1698692502906122732

    Meanwhile, stand by for the Mail to pin the whole fiasco on Remote Working;

    Timeline:

    DfE became aware of the RAAC issue early in August

    Keegan instructed officials to investigate

    While that work was ongoing, on August 25th she flew to Spain to celebrate her father’s birthday, staying in a holiday home she owns there

    While she was in Spain, she worked on RAAC via video conferencing each day, her office said

    This was equivalent to working from home, just abroad, an ally says

    She led ‘gold’ calls, attended by ministers Nick Gibb and Baroness Barran back home in London

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1698683447022117024?s=20

    It's not fair to blame GK for any of this. But since when has politics been fair?
    A scape goat is going to need to be sacrificed soon, to take the heat off Rishi.

    It will be bad news for Labour and the Opposition parties if Concrete Crisis brings down Rishi Sunak. A replacement as PM and HomeSec from moderate wing the party (Hunt PM, Penny HomSec) and 12 months talking about tackling unfair privilege in country today and being a government of aspiration and reform would save 50-100 Tory seats imo.

    It’s funny how Concrete Crisis can work out so good for the Tories, if it helps them replace Sunak.
    Remainer Hunt replacing Leaver Sunak as Tory leader and PM guarantees a doubling of the RefUK vote and risks near wipeout for the Tories
    This one post from you sums up your whole mistake right now HY.

    In this electoral situation you arguing Tories need to be Reform and Brexit fixated.

    I am explained the exact opposite to you, a position you should adopt. Chasing Grey Wall, Brexit voter and Reform voter gets you 28% tops at next General Election. You are actively ushering in a political sea change by decimating your return of MPs.

    50-100 MPs can be saved, a far better Proportion of vote by going in the opposite direction. So many leave voters want a sane, convincing safe pair of hands PM right now, reform minded voters want a Tory HomSec who can get a grip, and there are millions of voters you are just handing to Labour, who would be just as happy to keep in an aspirational Tory government intent on reform.

    You are misreading the political mood of the country. The Tories can be in a much better place switching to aspiration and reform, rather than chase UKIP and Reform voters.
    Completely agreed!

    Brexit is done, finished with. Anyone still obsessing over it, either way, is an absolute loon and should be disgarded.

    What matters is aspiration and reform.

    What matters more is that the Tories have abandoned aspiration and reform.
    Anyone who regards Brexit as finished at a time when major customs procedures have to be established, with unknown effects still to be seen, isn't showing the most elevated critical faculty, on the other hand.
    Why?

    The procedures don't have to be established, that's kind of the point of being an independent, sovereign nation - we choose what procedures we have in place, nobody else.

    If the procedures don't make sense for us, then we shouldn't have them.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,032
    edited September 2023

    .

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    This chyron probably wasn’t part of the No 10 back-to-school media strategy



    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1698692502906122732

    Meanwhile, stand by for the Mail to pin the whole fiasco on Remote Working;

    Timeline:

    DfE became aware of the RAAC issue early in August

    Keegan instructed officials to investigate

    While that work was ongoing, on August 25th she flew to Spain to celebrate her father’s birthday, staying in a holiday home she owns there

    While she was in Spain, she worked on RAAC via video conferencing each day, her office said

    This was equivalent to working from home, just abroad, an ally says

    She led ‘gold’ calls, attended by ministers Nick Gibb and Baroness Barran back home in London

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1698683447022117024?s=20

    It's not fair to blame GK for any of this. But since when has politics been fair?
    A scape goat is going to need to be sacrificed soon, to take the heat off Rishi.

    It will be bad news for Labour and the Opposition parties if Concrete Crisis brings down Rishi Sunak. A replacement as PM and HomeSec from moderate wing the party (Hunt PM, Penny HomSec) and 12 months talking about tackling unfair privilege in country today and being a government of aspiration and reform would save 50-100 Tory seats imo.

    It’s funny how Concrete Crisis can work out so good for the Tories, if it helps them replace Sunak.
    Remainer Hunt replacing Leaver Sunak as Tory leader and PM guarantees a doubling of the RefUK vote and risks near wipeout for the Tories
    This one post from you sums up your whole mistake right now HY.

    In this electoral situation you arguing Tories need to be Reform and Brexit fixated.

    I am explained the exact opposite to you, a position you should adopt. Chasing Grey Wall, Brexit voter and Reform voter gets you 28% tops at next General Election. You are actively ushering in a political sea change by decimating your return of MPs.

    50-100 MPs can be saved, a far better Proportion of vote by going in the opposite direction. So many leave voters want a sane, convincing safe pair of hands PM right now, reform minded voters want a Tory HomSec who can get a grip, and there are millions of voters you are just handing to Labour, who would be just as happy to keep in an aspirational Tory government intent on reform.

    You are misreading the political mood of the country. The Tories can be in a much better place switching to aspiration and reform, rather than chase UKIP and Reform voters.
    Completely agreed!

    Brexit is done, finished with. Anyone still obsessing over it, either way, is an absolute loon and should be disgarded.

    What matters is aspiration and reform.

    What matters more is that the Tories have abandoned aspiration and reform.
    Anyone who regards Brexit as finished at a time when major customs procedures have to be established, with unknown effects still to be seen, isn't showing the most elevated critical faculty, on the other hand.
    Why?

    The procedures don't have to be established, that's kind of the point of being an independent, sovereign nation - we choose what procedures we have in place, nobody else.

    If the procedures don't make sense for us, then we shouldn't have them.
    They do need to be there. HMG admits that. They also, effectively, admit they've screwed up by admitting repeated delays.

    You don't admit messing up and delaying something you [edit] don't think you need.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522
    edited September 2023
    Cyclefree said:

    Gillian Keegan's husband, Michael Keegan, is a crown representative to the Cabinet Office, managing cross-government relationships with BAE Systems as a strategic supplier to the Government.

    He was also for 12 years from 2006 a senior executive at Fujitsu, ending up as CEO and Head of Technology Product Business, having previously spent some time working at the Post Office.

    Perhaps it's just me but a senior executive from a company intimately involved in the worst miscarriage of justice in English history and one of the biggest IT fuck-ups ever would not be on my short list of persons seeking to manage relationships with anyone, let alone a strategic defence supplier.

    Why Fujitsu is still getting government contracts is a mystery…

    I thin the paragraphs preceding that last sentence go some way to providing the solution to that mystery.

    And is it a chummy spivocracy, or a spivvy chumocracy ?
    Or just a plain spivocracy.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,910
    Phil said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    Surely this should be one of the biggest policy issues facing the next government? I don't really see anything from Labour or the Tories that address this, as the article itself mentions.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/sep/04/poor-people-surviving-not-living-as-uk-social-contract-collapses-says-report

    It basically comes down to housing. If that was cheap peoples standard of living could be a lot better. Build, build, build, and stop deliberately inflating asset prices gets my vote.
    That's not the only solution (although it should be part of it). Those houses would need to be affordable housing, ideally council houses, and alongside that you need to actually look at landlords and rent control. If landlords want to offload their properties local government should also be allowed to buy them, especially if they are ex right to buy council properties in the first place.
    Local government are allowed to buy them. Or at least I assume they are since I get a slow but steady drip of announcements from my city council about the latest house they’ve bought & turned into council housing.

    The trouble is that councils buying up housing stock doesn’t alter the quantity of available housing.
    It does in a way though, because people can downsize within the council housing stock.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,300

    Labour leads by 16% nationally.

    Westminster VI (3 September):

    Labour 44% (–)
    Conservative 28% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 14% (+2)
    Reform UK 6% (-1)
    Green 4% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 27 August


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1698727622660792654

    14 quite high for the LDs in recent times. Is Ed Davey the new quiet man?
    Given what happened to the original "quiet man" - IDS - he'll be hoping not...
  • MattW said:

    ULEZ has already gone off the political map, it will long term be irrelevant

    Seems so, except at nutjob peripheral.

    The line up on TalkTV was beyond gruesome:

    Mike Graham, Isabel Oakeshott, James Whale, and Alex Salmond. And one I don't recognise.
    Nutjob Peripheral? Romford, you mean? (We are peripheral to London, and...)

    There are people trying to push the issue, including our (for practical purposes non) Member of Parliament, but I suspect they are increasingly talking to themselves and haven't noticed others wandering off.

    The false steer comes because a smallish number of very cross people make more noise than a larger number of people shrugging their shoulders in resignation/acceptance.
    But thats how low turnout elections are won. Khan beat Bailey on the first round by 120k votes out of an electorate of 6m. So if 1% voted for Khan last time and are angry now it becomes neck and neck.
  • I bet the readers of The Telegraph are wondering what this Pornhub is?



    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/09/04/texas-pornhub-lawsuit-age-verification-first-amendment/
  • Carnyx said:

    .

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    This chyron probably wasn’t part of the No 10 back-to-school media strategy



    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1698692502906122732

    Meanwhile, stand by for the Mail to pin the whole fiasco on Remote Working;

    Timeline:

    DfE became aware of the RAAC issue early in August

    Keegan instructed officials to investigate

    While that work was ongoing, on August 25th she flew to Spain to celebrate her father’s birthday, staying in a holiday home she owns there

    While she was in Spain, she worked on RAAC via video conferencing each day, her office said

    This was equivalent to working from home, just abroad, an ally says

    She led ‘gold’ calls, attended by ministers Nick Gibb and Baroness Barran back home in London

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1698683447022117024?s=20

    It's not fair to blame GK for any of this. But since when has politics been fair?
    A scape goat is going to need to be sacrificed soon, to take the heat off Rishi.

    It will be bad news for Labour and the Opposition parties if Concrete Crisis brings down Rishi Sunak. A replacement as PM and HomeSec from moderate wing the party (Hunt PM, Penny HomSec) and 12 months talking about tackling unfair privilege in country today and being a government of aspiration and reform would save 50-100 Tory seats imo.

    It’s funny how Concrete Crisis can work out so good for the Tories, if it helps them replace Sunak.
    Remainer Hunt replacing Leaver Sunak as Tory leader and PM guarantees a doubling of the RefUK vote and risks near wipeout for the Tories
    This one post from you sums up your whole mistake right now HY.

    In this electoral situation you arguing Tories need to be Reform and Brexit fixated.

    I am explained the exact opposite to you, a position you should adopt. Chasing Grey Wall, Brexit voter and Reform voter gets you 28% tops at next General Election. You are actively ushering in a political sea change by decimating your return of MPs.

    50-100 MPs can be saved, a far better Proportion of vote by going in the opposite direction. So many leave voters want a sane, convincing safe pair of hands PM right now, reform minded voters want a Tory HomSec who can get a grip, and there are millions of voters you are just handing to Labour, who would be just as happy to keep in an aspirational Tory government intent on reform.

    You are misreading the political mood of the country. The Tories can be in a much better place switching to aspiration and reform, rather than chase UKIP and Reform voters.
    Completely agreed!

    Brexit is done, finished with. Anyone still obsessing over it, either way, is an absolute loon and should be disgarded.

    What matters is aspiration and reform.

    What matters more is that the Tories have abandoned aspiration and reform.
    Anyone who regards Brexit as finished at a time when major customs procedures have to be established, with unknown effects still to be seen, isn't showing the most elevated critical faculty, on the other hand.
    Why?

    The procedures don't have to be established, that's kind of the point of being an independent, sovereign nation - we choose what procedures we have in place, nobody else.

    If the procedures don't make sense for us, then we shouldn't have them.
    They do need to be there. HMG admits that. They also, effectively, admit they've screwed up by admitting repeated delays.

    You don't admit messing up and delaying something you [edit] don't think you need.
    Why do they need to be there?

    I'd rather the Government do the stuff it needs to be doing, like ensuring buildings don't fall on kids, reforms to boost aspiration and the economy than dicking around with this nonsense.

    Just recognise European standards as equivalent to our own, even if they're not the same, and wave them through. No problems with that.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    edited September 2023

    Well this tweet from 2019 is going viral, Starmer has appointed a bigot as Shadow Justice Secretary.




    https://twitter.com/benjaminbutter/status/1102715728489263116

    Don't be silly. All education is age appropriate.

    What is being objected to here and whether it was or was not age appropriate I cannot say. But the idea that the age of the child should not be taken into account when deciding on content and what is told to them and how does not automatically make one a bigot.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,618

    viewcode said:

    Labour leads by 16% nationally.

    Westminster VI (3 September):

    Labour 44% (–)
    Conservative 28% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 14% (+2)
    Reform UK 6% (-1)
    Green 4% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 27 August


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1698727622660792654

    LD increasing...

    Dutch Salute intensifies
    Only three people have ever really understood the Dutch Salute Theory, the Prince Consort, who is dead, MoonRabbit, who has gone mad and I, who have forgotten all about it.
    gone mad

    ?
  • Cyclefree said:



    Well this tweet from 2019 is going viral, Starmer has appointed a bigot as Shadow Justice Secretary.




    https://twitter.com/benjaminbutter/status/1102715728489263116

    Don't be silly. All education is age appropriate.

    What is being objected to here and whether it was or was not age appropriate I cannot say. But the idea that the age of the child should not be taken into account when deciding on content and what is told to them and how does not automatically make one a bigot.
    This is the context.

    A primary school that taught pupils about homosexuality as part of a programme to challenge homophobia has stopped the lessons after hundreds of children were withdrawn by parents in protest.

    Parkfield community school in Saltley, Birmingham, has been the scene of weekly protests over the lessons, which parents claim are promoting gay and transgender lifestyles.

    In a letter to parents, the school said: “Up to the end of this term, we will not be delivering any No Outsiders lessons in our long-term year curriculum plan, as this half term has already been blocked for religious education (RE). Equality assemblies will continue as normal and our welcoming No Outsiders ethos will be there for all.”

    On Friday about 600 Muslim children, aged between four and 11, were withdrawn from the school for the day, parents said. The school would not confirm the number.

    The school made clear that it had never intended to continue the No Outsiders lessons this half term and confirmed that the lessons would resume only after a full consultation with every parent.

    Last month, the Guardian reported that the assistant headteacher of the school was forced to defend the lessons after 400 predominantly Muslim parents signed a petition calling for them to be dropped from the curriculum.

    Andrew Moffat, who was awarded an MBE for his work in equality education, said he was threatened and targeted via a leaflet campaign after the school piloted the No Outsiders programme. Its ethos is to promote LGBT equality and challenge homophobia in primary schools.

    Moffat, the author of Challenging Homophobia in Primary Schools who is currently shortlisted for a world’s best teacher award, resigned from another primary school – Chilwell Croft academy, also in Birmingham – after a similar dispute with Muslim and Christian parents.

    Parents have been protesting outside the Saltley school, which is rated as outstanding by Ofsted. At one protest they held signs that read “say no to promoting of homosexuality and LGBT ways of life to our children”, “stop exploiting children’s innocence”, and “education not indoctrination”.


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2019/mar/04/birmingham-school-stops-lgbt-lessons-after-parent-protests
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,690

    Not a good idea. Let the voters have their choice of LAB or LD.

    The Mid Beds election is one, and maybe these are quite rare, where a small number of real non voodoo polls would be likely to be very significant in affecting the outcome. So it would be money well spent by the media.

    For now I think all 3 main parties have a similar chance.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,300

    I bet the readers of The Telegraph are wondering what this Pornhub is?



    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/09/04/texas-pornhub-lawsuit-age-verification-first-amendment/

    Another Puritan trying to ruin your fun, TSE? :(
  • viewcode said:

    Labour leads by 16% nationally.

    Westminster VI (3 September):

    Labour 44% (–)
    Conservative 28% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 14% (+2)
    Reform UK 6% (-1)
    Green 4% (–)
    Scottish National Party 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-2)

    Changes +/- 27 August


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1698727622660792654

    LD increasing...

    Dutch Salute intensifies
    Only three people have ever really understood the Dutch Salute Theory, the Prince Consort, who is dead, MoonRabbit, who has gone mad and I, who have forgotten all about it.
    gone mad

    ?
    Makes much more sense than "going mad".
This discussion has been closed.