Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

New poll has big majority for rejoin – politicalbetting.com

24567

Comments

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,738
    stodge said:

    Today marks the 1,032nd anniversary of the Battle of Maldon in 991 when Byrhtnoth and the Anglo-Saxons were defeated by the Vikings.

    King Aethelred (he who wasn't ready) bought off the Vikings with a Danegeld of silver worth about £2 million.

    Just a reminder English silver was the nearest thing to a common European currency at the time and we were still uing it to pay off the Danes until 1066.

    The good Ealdorman would be very surprised, but even more pleased, his bravery is still remembered and indeed sung today - in the high halls of Oxford and so on. Though I'm sure other folk do.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,010
    Miklosvar said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Miklosvar said:

    You cannot still be a firm believer, it's like being a Christian and dying and discovering that dead is actually dead, no harps or angels or hellfire. Conclusive refutation.

    Or an atheist discovering they end up at the Pearly Gates in front of St Peter
    What a result that would be. Spend my whole life not giving a toss about religion, bemused by true believers . Pop my clogs then still get into heaven.
    It doesn't work like that.
    How do you know?
    Good works are not enough (that's the Pelagian heresy), one must also believe in God. There is no route into Heaven other than by that belief. Atheists have no belief and so cannot enter.
    Are you the Pope in disguise, and if not who are you to say what's a heresy?

    You're in for a nasty surprise when you pop your clogs, or rather you aren't.
    • "Are you the Pope in disguise?" No
    • "Who are you to say what's a heresy?". I dont get to decide. Other people do. I'm just telling you what they decided. No belief, no Heaven.
    • "You're in for a nasty surprise when you pop your clogs". I doubt I'd be surprised. Terrified and bitterly disappointed, yes, but surprised no.
    • "Or rather you aren't". Unfortunately you are wrong on that.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    viewcode said:

    Chris said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    fitalass said:

    ydoethur said:

    I disagree with the last paragraph. I think Brussels would have us back in a heartbeat. Britain leaving the EU was a significant blow to their beloved project, while an admission of failure and crawling back would be a fillip second to none.

    The snag is, they would set innumerable terms they would think are very reasonable, because they simply don't get how people feel about a United Europe, which would be absolute anathema to a sizeable chunk of wistful rejoiners.

    If people want the status quo ante that's understandable given the catastrophe Johnson wished on us by signing the EU's punishment terms instead of the rather better ones negotiated by May, but that's not likely to be on offer.

    Not short of some fairly radical changes in the EU, anyway.

    Absolutely agree. Its one thing to tick the yes box in a polling survey about rejoining the EU, but is quite another doing it in the ballot box if there was another referendum asking the question if the EU membership deal is not at least what we had before.
    Aaaand it will never be what we had before. The EU - quite rightly, from their perspective - will demand immediate euro membership, so they know we are in it for the long haul and won't get outy again. Once you are in the euro your fate is sealed

    We will never accept the euro. Will will never rejoin

    I predict there will be a fudge on Free Movement within a new peripheral Single Market, once passions have died (and they are dying). The economic benefits are too great for both sides

    But it needs a generation of politicians to die off
    What's your take on the ECHR?
    Leave today. It is a ridiculous wartime hangover, of near-zero utility
    Human Rights are so 20th-century. What is the utility of people having rights?
    Leon doesn't really understand the concept of "other people"
    And you think other people are there to be subjected to an eternity of suffering or at least denied an eternity of bliss for getting slightly the wrong result to an incoherent puzzle set by an eternal pasta monster. Pelagian? Fires of hell for you, sonny.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,574

    .

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Miklosvar said:

    You cannot still be a firm believer, it's like being a Christian and dying and discovering that dead is actually dead, no harps or angels or hellfire. Conclusive refutation.

    Or an atheist discovering they end up at the Pearly Gates in front of St Peter
    What a result that would be. Spend my whole life not giving a toss about religion, bemused by true believers . Pop my clogs then still get into heaven.
    It doesn't work like that.
    How do you know?
    Good works are not enough (that's the Pelagian heresy), one must also believe in God. There is no route into Heaven other than by that belief. Atheists have no belief and so cannot enter.
    But if God's never talked to me
    or shown me the light, then it's his fault that I don't believe so he'll have to tell old St Pete to give me the nod. I can't lose.
    That is pretty much my church's attitude to evangelism. If God wanted people to be part of our church , then he would have told them himself. If not, then he has something else in mind.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,505
    FPT
    Leon said:

    How long before a populist strongman tries The El Salvador Method on a much bigger LatAm nation?


    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/7/could-el-salvadors-gang-crackdown-spread-across-latin-america

    https://www.economist.com/films/2023/07/21/inside-el-salvadors-war-on-crime

    More importantly and interestingly, how long before it is tried in an advanced western nation with spiraling crime and urban decay?

    The self-styled "cool dictator" has stratospheric popularity. People like the Singapore approach. Zero tolerance. String em up or bang em up.

    Within a decade we will see a version in the west, is my bet. Prime candidates: the USA, or Sweden. Perhaps Italy or France next

    The problem any western country would face is that they couldn't easily copy anything remotely like that without formally giving up on the pretence of the 'rules-based international community'. It would mean the end of the current conception of what the West is.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854
    edited August 2023
    I posted this last night. It's entitled 'Clacton. Living in a post Brexit society'. A brilliant mini documentary (a German crew i think) and it explains why the result was as it was and why the referendum was almost certain to produce the result it did

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUej2pWLUUc
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    viewcode said:

    Miklosvar said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Miklosvar said:

    You cannot still be a firm believer, it's like being a Christian and dying and discovering that dead is actually dead, no harps or angels or hellfire. Conclusive refutation.

    Or an atheist discovering they end up at the Pearly Gates in front of St Peter
    What a result that would be. Spend my whole life not giving a toss about religion, bemused by true believers . Pop my clogs then still get into heaven.
    It doesn't work like that.
    How do you know?
    Good works are not enough (that's the Pelagian heresy), one must also believe in God. There is no route into Heaven other than by that belief. Atheists have no belief and so cannot enter.
    Are you the Pope in disguise, and if not who are you to say what's a heresy?

    You're in for a nasty surprise when you pop your clogs, or rather you aren't.
    • "Are you the Pope in disguise?" No
    • "Who are you to say what's a heresy?". I dont get to decide. Other people do. I'm just telling you what they decided. No belief, no Heaven.
    • "You're in for a nasty surprise when you pop your clogs". I doubt I'd be surprised. Terrified and bitterly disappointed, yes, but surprised no.
    • "Or rather you aren't". Unfortunately you are wrong on that.
    The Council of Carthage 418 gets to decide things for you?

    Right
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,088
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    fitalass said:

    ydoethur said:

    I disagree with the last paragraph. I think Brussels would have us back in a heartbeat. Britain leaving the EU was a significant blow to their beloved project, while an admission of failure and crawling back would be a fillip second to none.

    The snag is, they would set innumerable terms they would think are very reasonable, because they simply don't get how people feel about a United Europe, which would be absolute anathema to a sizeable chunk of wistful rejoiners.

    If people want the status quo ante that's understandable given the catastrophe Johnson wished on us by signing the EU's punishment terms instead of the rather better ones negotiated by May, but that's not likely to be on offer.

    Not short of some fairly radical changes in the EU, anyway.

    Absolutely agree. Its one thing to tick the yes box in a polling survey about rejoining the EU, but is quite another doing it in the ballot box if there was another referendum asking the question if the EU membership deal is not at least what we had before.
    Aaaand it will never be what we had before. The EU - quite rightly, from their perspective - will demand immediate euro membership, so they know we are in it for the long haul and won't get outy again. Once you are in the euro your fate is sealed

    We will never accept the euro. Will will never rejoin

    I predict there will be a fudge on Free Movement within a new peripheral Single Market, once passions have died (and they are dying). The economic benefits are too great for both sides

    But it needs a generation of politicians to die off
    What's your take on the ECHR?
    Leave today. It is a ridiculous wartime hangover, of near-zero utility
    C'mon, we did Trident on the last thread.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,080

    FPT

    Leon said:

    How long before a populist strongman tries The El Salvador Method on a much bigger LatAm nation?


    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/7/could-el-salvadors-gang-crackdown-spread-across-latin-america

    https://www.economist.com/films/2023/07/21/inside-el-salvadors-war-on-crime

    More importantly and interestingly, how long before it is tried in an advanced western nation with spiraling crime and urban decay?

    The self-styled "cool dictator" has stratospheric popularity. People like the Singapore approach. Zero tolerance. String em up or bang em up.

    Within a decade we will see a version in the west, is my bet. Prime candidates: the USA, or Sweden. Perhaps Italy or France next

    The problem any western country would face is that they couldn't easily copy anything remotely like that without formally giving up on the pretence of the 'rules-based international community'. It would mean the end of the current conception of what the West is.
    It will happen, nonetheless

    The West as we know it is over
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,651
    Rejoin, a no-stakes criticism because the EU will not have the in-out soap opera taking up five years each decade.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,617
    #Morocco for the first time reliably surpasses 50C
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,010
    Miklosvar said:

    viewcode said:

    Miklosvar said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Miklosvar said:

    You cannot still be a firm believer, it's like being a Christian and dying and discovering that dead is actually dead, no harps or angels or hellfire. Conclusive refutation.

    Or an atheist discovering they end up at the Pearly Gates in front of St Peter
    What a result that would be. Spend my whole life not giving a toss about religion, bemused by true believers . Pop my clogs then still get into heaven.
    It doesn't work like that.
    How do you know?
    Good works are not enough (that's the Pelagian heresy), one must also believe in God. There is no route into Heaven other than by that belief. Atheists have no belief and so cannot enter.
    Are you the Pope in disguise, and if not who are you to say what's a heresy?

    You're in for a nasty surprise when you pop your clogs, or rather you aren't.
    • "Are you the Pope in disguise?" No
    • "Who are you to say what's a heresy?". I dont get to decide. Other people do. I'm just telling you what they decided. No belief, no Heaven.
    • "You're in for a nasty surprise when you pop your clogs". I doubt I'd be surprised. Terrified and bitterly disappointed, yes, but surprised no.
    • "Or rather you aren't". Unfortunately you are wrong on that.
    The Council of Carthage 418 gets to decide things for you?

    Right
    Not quite. They get to decide things for you. Or rather they provide a framework from which you may or may not differ after careful study, on the understanding that if you get it wrong Hell is a possible outcome.

    PB is chock to the brim of rich elderly atheists who don't gamble. It's weird.
  • viewcode said:

    Miklosvar said:

    viewcode said:

    Miklosvar said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Miklosvar said:

    You cannot still be a firm believer, it's like being a Christian and dying and discovering that dead is actually dead, no harps or angels or hellfire. Conclusive refutation.

    Or an atheist discovering they end up at the Pearly Gates in front of St Peter
    What a result that would be. Spend my whole life not giving a toss about religion, bemused by true believers . Pop my clogs then still get into heaven.
    It doesn't work like that.
    How do you know?
    Good works are not enough (that's the Pelagian heresy), one must also believe in God. There is no route into Heaven other than by that belief. Atheists have no belief and so cannot enter.
    Are you the Pope in disguise, and if not who are you to say what's a heresy?

    You're in for a nasty surprise when you pop your clogs, or rather you aren't.
    • "Are you the Pope in disguise?" No
    • "Who are you to say what's a heresy?". I dont get to decide. Other people do. I'm just telling you what they decided. No belief, no Heaven.
    • "You're in for a nasty surprise when you pop your clogs". I doubt I'd be surprised. Terrified and bitterly disappointed, yes, but surprised no.
    • "Or rather you aren't". Unfortunately you are wrong on that.
    The Council of Carthage 418 gets to decide things for you?

    Right
    Not quite. They get to decide things for you. Or rather they provide a framework from which you may or may not differ after careful study, on the understanding that if you get it wrong Hell is a possible outcome.

    PB is chock to the brim of rich elderly atheists who don't gamble. It's weird.
    I'm only 47, actually!
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,273
    Bless . The DM going on trans drama on the wards . Braverman could blow up a school bus and the DM would still be doing everything to avoid criticizing this cesspit government.

    In terms of re-join . I think the lead at this point is probably overstated.

    The terms of any re-join are highly unlikely to be as good as what the UK originally had .

    The problem for public perception of Brexit is its suffering to some degree with being used as a punchbag for everything that’s going wrong in the country . Similar to the ref where the EU was caught in the crossfire of public anger at austerity .

    The only group still in love with Brexit seem to be the over 65s . The majority of this group still seem to be determined to inflict another 5 years of the Tories on the country.


  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,088
    Roger said:

    I posted this last night. It's entitled 'Clacton. Living in a post Brexit society'. A brilliant mini documentary (a German crew i think) and it explains why the result was as it was and why the referendum was almost certain to produce the result it did

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUej2pWLUUc

    Yes. I will agree when I watch it. The popular refrain of 'Remain should have won but blew it' is a bag of baloney imo.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,010

    viewcode said:

    Miklosvar said:

    viewcode said:

    Miklosvar said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Miklosvar said:

    You cannot still be a firm believer, it's like being a Christian and dying and discovering that dead is actually dead, no harps or angels or hellfire. Conclusive refutation.

    Or an atheist discovering they end up at the Pearly Gates in front of St Peter
    What a result that would be. Spend my whole life not giving a toss about religion, bemused by true believers . Pop my clogs then still get into heaven.
    It doesn't work like that.
    How do you know?
    Good works are not enough (that's the Pelagian heresy), one must also believe in God. There is no route into Heaven other than by that belief. Atheists have no belief and so cannot enter.
    Are you the Pope in disguise, and if not who are you to say what's a heresy?

    You're in for a nasty surprise when you pop your clogs, or rather you aren't.
    • "Are you the Pope in disguise?" No
    • "Who are you to say what's a heresy?". I dont get to decide. Other people do. I'm just telling you what they decided. No belief, no Heaven.
    • "You're in for a nasty surprise when you pop your clogs". I doubt I'd be surprised. Terrified and bitterly disappointed, yes, but surprised no.
    • "Or rather you aren't". Unfortunately you are wrong on that.
    The Council of Carthage 418 gets to decide things for you?

    Right
    Not quite. They get to decide things for you. Or rather they provide a framework from which you may or may not differ after careful study, on the understanding that if you get it wrong Hell is a possible outcome.

    PB is chock to the brim of rich elderly atheists who don't gamble. It's weird.
    I'm only 47, actually!
    Don't be silly, Sunil. You are perpetually 18.

    Or 18-wheels in a three-three-three configuration, it's difficult to tell :)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,088
    Leon said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    How long before a populist strongman tries The El Salvador Method on a much bigger LatAm nation?


    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/7/could-el-salvadors-gang-crackdown-spread-across-latin-america

    https://www.economist.com/films/2023/07/21/inside-el-salvadors-war-on-crime

    More importantly and interestingly, how long before it is tried in an advanced western nation with spiraling crime and urban decay?

    The self-styled "cool dictator" has stratospheric popularity. People like the Singapore approach. Zero tolerance. String em up or bang em up.

    Within a decade we will see a version in the west, is my bet. Prime candidates: the USA, or Sweden. Perhaps Italy or France next

    The problem any western country would face is that they couldn't easily copy anything remotely like that without formally giving up on the pretence of the 'rules-based international community'. It would mean the end of the current conception of what the West is.
    It will happen, nonetheless

    The West as we know it is over
    What about the Enlightenment though?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,088

    FPT

    Leon said:

    How long before a populist strongman tries The El Salvador Method on a much bigger LatAm nation?


    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/7/could-el-salvadors-gang-crackdown-spread-across-latin-america

    https://www.economist.com/films/2023/07/21/inside-el-salvadors-war-on-crime

    More importantly and interestingly, how long before it is tried in an advanced western nation with spiraling crime and urban decay?

    The self-styled "cool dictator" has stratospheric popularity. People like the Singapore approach. Zero tolerance. String em up or bang em up.

    Within a decade we will see a version in the west, is my bet. Prime candidates: the USA, or Sweden. Perhaps Italy or France next

    The problem any western country would face is that they couldn't easily copy anything remotely like that without formally giving up on the pretence of the 'rules-based international community'. It would mean the end of the current conception of what the West is.
    You mean 'aspiration' not 'pretence', don't you?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,718
    stodge said:

    Today marks the 1,032nd anniversary of the Battle of Maldon in 991 when Byrhtnoth and the Anglo-Saxons were defeated by the Vikings.

    King Aethelred (he who wasn't ready) bought off the Vikings with a Danegeld of silver worth about £2 million.

    Just a reminder English silver was the nearest thing to a common European currency at the time and we were still uing it to pay off the Danes until 1066.

    Went to Maldon a few months ago, great views by the river towards the marshes, you can imagine little changed from Anglo Saxon and Viking times
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,080
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    How long before a populist strongman tries The El Salvador Method on a much bigger LatAm nation?


    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/7/could-el-salvadors-gang-crackdown-spread-across-latin-america

    https://www.economist.com/films/2023/07/21/inside-el-salvadors-war-on-crime

    More importantly and interestingly, how long before it is tried in an advanced western nation with spiraling crime and urban decay?

    The self-styled "cool dictator" has stratospheric popularity. People like the Singapore approach. Zero tolerance. String em up or bang em up.

    Within a decade we will see a version in the west, is my bet. Prime candidates: the USA, or Sweden. Perhaps Italy or France next

    The problem any western country would face is that they couldn't easily copy anything remotely like that without formally giving up on the pretence of the 'rules-based international community'. It would mean the end of the current conception of what the West is.
    It will happen, nonetheless

    The West as we know it is over
    What about the Enlightenment though?
    Go back and vote CND. lol
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,718
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    How long before a populist strongman tries The El Salvador Method on a much bigger LatAm nation?


    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/7/could-el-salvadors-gang-crackdown-spread-across-latin-america

    https://www.economist.com/films/2023/07/21/inside-el-salvadors-war-on-crime

    More importantly and interestingly, how long before it is tried in an advanced western nation with spiraling crime and urban decay?

    The self-styled "cool dictator" has stratospheric popularity. People like the Singapore approach. Zero tolerance. String em up or bang em up.

    Within a decade we will see a version in the west, is my bet. Prime candidates: the USA, or Sweden. Perhaps Italy or France next

    The problem any western country would face is that they couldn't easily copy anything remotely like that without formally giving up on the pretence of the 'rules-based international community'. It would mean the end of the current conception of what the West is.
    It will happen, nonetheless

    The West as we know it is over
    What about the Enlightenment though?
    We need tougher sentences and more police on the beat, we don't need detention without charge or trial
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,718
    'A planned cage fight between tech leaders Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg could now take place in Italy, and have an ancient Rome theme.

    In the story's latest twist, Italy's culture minister on Friday said that he had spoken to Mr Musk about hosting the showdown as a charity event.

    The billionaire CEOs of Tesla and Meta (formerly Facebook) have been goading each other into the fight since June.

    If it goes ahead, millions are expected to be donated to children's hospitals.

    However, Mr Zuckerberg has said no date has been agreed so far.

    Detailing his vision on social media platform X (previously known as Twitter), Mr Musk said he had spoken to both Italy's prime minister and its culture minister.

    "They have agreed on an epic location," he wrote. "Everything in camera frame will be ancient Rome, so nothing modern at all."

    However the capital Rome, and its iconic Colosseum - where legendary Gladiator fights were held in ancient times - have been ruled out.'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66480636
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,088
    Finished 'Wolf' tonight anyway. A cut above, I thought.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Marked flight to quality on equities starting in 2016 where the UK is on the flight from non-quality side.




    https://twitter.com/shjfrench/status/1689605854457155585
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,718
    edited August 2023
    kinabalu said:

    Finished 'Wolf' tonight anyway. A cut above, I thought.

    Yellowstone on C5 also good
  • CNS - Sam Bankman-Fried’s cushy house arrest revoked over witness intimidation
    The disgraced cryptocurrency executive's messages to trial witnesses and leaking of his ex-girlfriend's personal diaries cost him a comfortable pretrial house arrest at his parents' California home.

    A New York federal judge on Friday ordered FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried to be jailed ahead of his October trial, revoking the 31-year-old’s home detention and remanding him to detention over alleged witness tampering, including his leaking of a star witness’s diaries to The New York Times.

    Following a 90-minute bail hearing Bankman-Fried traded his suit jacket, tie, shoes and watch for handcuffs, before being escorted by U.S. Marshals into pretrial custody.

    Prosecutors in the Southern District of New York alleged that Bankman-Fried’s handing over the diaries of his on-again, off-again girlfriend Caroline Ellison, a former Alameda Research co-CEO, were an attempt to interfere with a fair trial by an impartial jury.

    The private documents from a Google Drive account were published without naming Bankman-Fried as the source last month in an article titled “Inside the Private Writings of Caroline Ellison, Star Witness in the FTX Case.”

    Bankman-Fried’s defense argued in a letter last week that detention was unwarranted and insisted the prosecution’s detention memo relied “heavily on assumptions, unsupported inferences, and innuendo.”

    Senior U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan refused to cut Bankman-Fried a break for what he found to be witness tampering and intimidation. . . .

    https://www.courthousenews.com/sam-bankman-frieds-cushy-house-arrest-revoked-over-witness-intimidation/

    SSI -Just over a year ago, this world-class scum-sucker was trying to buy himself, and Big Crypto, a seat in Congress from Oregon.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,975
    kinabalu said:

    Finished 'Wolf' tonight anyway. A cut above, I thought.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolf_(Trevor_Rabin_album) ? It's not bad. I'm looking forward to his new solo album, due in October.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    viewcode said:

    Miklosvar said:

    viewcode said:

    Miklosvar said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Miklosvar said:

    You cannot still be a firm believer, it's like being a Christian and dying and discovering that dead is actually dead, no harps or angels or hellfire. Conclusive refutation.

    Or an atheist discovering they end up at the Pearly Gates in front of St Peter
    What a result that would be. Spend my whole life not giving a toss about religion, bemused by true believers . Pop my clogs then still get into heaven.
    It doesn't work like that.
    How do you know?
    Good works are not enough (that's the Pelagian heresy), one must also believe in God. There is no route into Heaven other than by that belief. Atheists have no belief and so cannot enter.
    Are you the Pope in disguise, and if not who are you to say what's a heresy?

    You're in for a nasty surprise when you pop your clogs, or rather you aren't.
    • "Are you the Pope in disguise?" No
    • "Who are you to say what's a heresy?". I dont get to decide. Other people do. I'm just telling you what they decided. No belief, no Heaven.
    • "You're in for a nasty surprise when you pop your clogs". I doubt I'd be surprised. Terrified and bitterly disappointed, yes, but surprised no.
    • "Or rather you aren't". Unfortunately you are wrong on that.
    The Council of Carthage 418 gets to decide things for you?

    Right
    Not quite. They get to decide things for you. Or rather they provide a framework from which you may or may not differ after careful study, on the understanding that if you get it wrong Hell is a possible outcome.

    PB is chock to the brim of rich elderly atheists who don't gamble. It's weird.
    You what? I gamble often and successfully, my age and financial status are undisclosed, and you are plainly even madder than I thought you were from the private satellite plan.

    BTW I have read the New Testament and I bet you haven't, you have relied on some catchpenny rendition into Latin or, even worse, a modern vernacular. If they have got it wrong (they have) I'm afraid Hell is a possible outcome.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,500
    edited August 2023
    GDP per head is a very poor measure of quality of life. I'd rather live in Portugal than about 40 of the 50 American states, even though Portugal's GDP per head is probably well below every US state including Mississippi.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,088
    HYUFD said:

    'A planned cage fight between tech leaders Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg could now take place in Italy, and have an ancient Rome theme.

    In the story's latest twist, Italy's culture minister on Friday said that he had spoken to Mr Musk about hosting the showdown as a charity event.

    The billionaire CEOs of Tesla and Meta (formerly Facebook) have been goading each other into the fight since June.

    If it goes ahead, millions are expected to be donated to children's hospitals.

    However, Mr Zuckerberg has said no date has been agreed so far.

    Detailing his vision on social media platform X (previously known as Twitter), Mr Musk said he had spoken to both Italy's prime minister and its culture minister.

    "They have agreed on an epic location," he wrote. "Everything in camera frame will be ancient Rome, so nothing modern at all."

    However the capital Rome, and its iconic Colosseum - where legendary Gladiator fights were held in ancient times - have been ruled out.'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66480636

    I was worried I might be secretly rooting for this absurd event to happen but after a deep and brutally honest self-audit I find that I'm not. Hats off me. I'm ok. Phew.
  • Maui wildfire disaster response - interview with Hawai'i Governor Josh Green

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0zwxa6r7YE

    SSI - very minor note, but he's wearing a version of a great Aloha shirt that I purchased a couple of weeks ago.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,944
    Andy_JS said:

    GDP per head is a very poor measure of quality of life. I'd rather live in Portugal than about 40 of the 50 American states, even though Portugal's GDP per head is probably well below every US state including Mississippi.

    Yes. But we don’t have sunny weather.

    Low GDP per head + grey echoing town
    centres wind-flecked with chip wrappers and takeaway cartons + the lowest sunshine totals in the world = *not like Portugal*
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,500
    edited August 2023
    Odds for tomorrow's World Cup matches.

    England 1.58
    Colombia 8.4
    Draw 4.2
    England (to qualify) 1.28
    Colombia (to qualify) 4.6


    France 2.28
    Australia 3.8
    Draw 3.4
    France (to qualify) 1.71
    Australia (to qualify) 2.42

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/football/fifa-women-s-world-cup-betting-12220485
  • #Morocco for the first time reliably surpasses 50C

    Valencia set a new record of 46.8C yesterday. Glad I'm not still there.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,230
    Leon said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    How long before a populist strongman tries The El Salvador Method on a much bigger LatAm nation?


    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/7/could-el-salvadors-gang-crackdown-spread-across-latin-america

    https://www.economist.com/films/2023/07/21/inside-el-salvadors-war-on-crime

    More importantly and interestingly, how long before it is tried in an advanced western nation with spiraling crime and urban decay?

    The self-styled "cool dictator" has stratospheric popularity. People like the Singapore approach. Zero tolerance. String em up or bang em up.

    Within a decade we will see a version in the west, is my bet. Prime candidates: the USA, or Sweden. Perhaps Italy or France next

    The problem any western country would face is that they couldn't easily copy anything remotely like that without formally giving up on the pretence of the 'rules-based international community'. It would mean the end of the current conception of what the West is.
    It will happen, nonetheless

    The West as we know it is over
    It's rapidly morphing into something else, certainly. Our self-congratulation at winning the Cold War looks absurd in retrospect. Somewhere near the beginning of D&FotRE Gibbon argues that the daily life of the average 5th Century Roman citizen didn't change much - just a few more Teutonic-speaking neighbours than before and the occasional sacking of a distant town or city. But with the lofty perspective of hindsight they were obviously on the skids and there was nothing they could do to stop it.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,944

    #Morocco for the first time reliably surpasses 50C

    Valencia set a new record of 46.8C yesterday. Glad I'm not still there.
    Much more pleasant warm-wave due for the (South of the) UK over the next couple of weeks. That I suppose is the flip side of not being Portugal.
  • Girl arrested over ‘lesbian nana’ comment will face no further action, police say
    West Yorkshire Police said it will ‘take on board any lessons to be learned’ after footage of the arrest sparked criticism on social media

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/08/11/girl-arrested-lesbian-nana-comment-no-action-west-yorkshire/ (£££)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,010
    Miklosvar said:

    viewcode said:

    Miklosvar said:

    viewcode said:

    Miklosvar said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Miklosvar said:

    You cannot still be a firm believer, it's like being a Christian and dying and discovering that dead is actually dead, no harps or angels or hellfire. Conclusive refutation.

    Or an atheist discovering they end up at the Pearly Gates in front of St Peter
    What a result that would be. Spend my whole life not giving a toss about religion, bemused by true believers . Pop my clogs then still get into heaven.
    It doesn't work like that.
    How do you know?
    Good works are not enough (that's the Pelagian heresy), one must also believe in God. There is no route into Heaven other than by that belief. Atheists have no belief and so cannot enter.
    Are you the Pope in disguise, and if not who are you to say what's a heresy?

    You're in for a nasty surprise when you pop your clogs, or rather you aren't.
    • "Are you the Pope in disguise?" No
    • "Who are you to say what's a heresy?". I dont get to decide. Other people do. I'm just telling you what they decided. No belief, no Heaven.
    • "You're in for a nasty surprise when you pop your clogs". I doubt I'd be surprised. Terrified and bitterly disappointed, yes, but surprised no.
    • "Or rather you aren't". Unfortunately you are wrong on that.
    The Council of Carthage 418 gets to decide things for you?

    Right
    Not quite. They get to decide things for you. Or rather they provide a framework from which you may or may not differ after careful study, on the understanding that if you get it wrong Hell is a possible outcome.

    PB is chock to the brim of rich elderly atheists who don't gamble. It's weird.
    You what? I gamble often and successfully, my age and financial status are undisclosed, and you are plainly even madder than I thought you were from the private satellite plan.

    BTW I have read the New Testament and I bet you haven't, you have relied on some catchpenny rendition into Latin or, even worse, a modern vernacular. If they have got it wrong (they have) I'm afraid Hell is a possible outcome.
    Although some PBers are gay or pro-gay, some PBers are abusive, and some PBers have read the Bible, very few of them are gay/pro-gay AND abusive (increasingly so towards the end of the day) AND point out unprompted that they have read the New Testament.

    The PB mods prefer that returnee PBers not be outed so I shall not do that. But I think it's within the rules to say welcome back.

  • Andy_JS said:

    Odds for tomorrow's World Cup matches.

    England 1.58
    Colombia 8.4
    Draw 4.2
    England (to qualify) 1.28
    Colombia (to qualify) 4.6


    France 2.28
    Australia 3.8
    Draw 3.4
    France (to qualify) 1.71
    Australia (to qualify) 2.42

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/football/fifa-women-s-world-cup-betting-12220485

    I've not looked into it so DYOR but instinctively the Australia/France odds look wrong, given it is only a month since the Matildas beat Les Bleues in a pre-tournament friendly and will have the home crowd behind them.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,651
    Andy_JS said:

    GDP per head is a very poor measure of quality of life. I'd rather live in Portugal than about 40 of the 50 American states, even though Portugal's GDP per head is probably well below every US state including Mississippi.

    Yet Portugal can't support its own population without mass emigration, whereas migrants from rich and poor countries alike flock to America.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,080
    EPG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    GDP per head is a very poor measure of quality of life. I'd rather live in Portugal than about 40 of the 50 American states, even though Portugal's GDP per head is probably well below every US state including Mississippi.

    Yet Portugal can't support its own population without mass emigration, whereas migrants from rich and poor countries alike flock to America.
    No they don’t. Migrants from rich European, Asian, or Australian societies are certainly NOT flocking to the USA. For the very good reason that - unless you have a great job offer or an Ivy League university place - life is notably worse in the USA

    The people at the southern border of America are from Haiti, Somalia, Syria and Venezuela. Not Dublin, Oslo, London or Madrid
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,651
    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    GDP per head is a very poor measure of quality of life. I'd rather live in Portugal than about 40 of the 50 American states, even though Portugal's GDP per head is probably well below every US state including Mississippi.

    Yet Portugal can't support its own population without mass emigration, whereas migrants from rich and poor countries alike flock to America.
    No they don’t. Migrants from rich European, Asian, or Australian societies are certainly NOT flocking to the USA. For the very good reason that - unless you have a great job offer or an Ivy League university place - life is notably worse in the USA

    The people at the southern border of America are from Haiti, Somalia, Syria and Venezuela. Not Dublin, Oslo, London or Madrid
    I didn't say they migrated through Mexico.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,080
    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    GDP per head is a very poor measure of quality of life. I'd rather live in Portugal than about 40 of the 50 American states, even though Portugal's GDP per head is probably well below every US state including Mississippi.

    Yet Portugal can't support its own population without mass emigration, whereas migrants from rich and poor countries alike flock to America.
    No they don’t. Migrants from rich European, Asian, or Australian societies are certainly NOT flocking to the USA. For the very good reason that - unless you have a great job offer or an Ivy League university place - life is notably worse in the USA

    The people at the southern border of America are from Haiti, Somalia, Syria and Venezuela. Not Dublin, Oslo, London or Madrid
    I didn't say they migrated through Mexico.
    They’re still not flocking to America

    The days when a green card to go live in the USA was like some kind of lottery win are long long ago; life in most of Europe for most people is better than the average life in America. Ditto east asia
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,718
    edited August 2023
    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    GDP per head is a very poor measure of quality of life. I'd rather live in Portugal than about 40 of the 50 American states, even though Portugal's GDP per head is probably well below every US state including Mississippi.

    Yet Portugal can't support its own population without mass emigration, whereas migrants from rich and poor countries alike flock to America.
    No they don’t. Migrants from rich European, Asian, or Australian societies are certainly NOT flocking to the USA. For the very good reason that - unless you have a great job offer or an Ivy League university place - life is notably worse in the USA

    The people at the southern border of America are from Haiti, Somalia, Syria and Venezuela. Not Dublin, Oslo, London or Madrid
    Yep, unless you have a place at Harvard or Stanford or a big paying 6 figure salary job with private healthcare insurance as a corporate lawyer or surgeon or corporate executive or Hollywood actor most residents of other western nations have no great desire to move to the US now unlike the 19th century or most of the 20th century
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,075
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    How long before a populist strongman tries The El Salvador Method on a much bigger LatAm nation?


    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/7/could-el-salvadors-gang-crackdown-spread-across-latin-america

    https://www.economist.com/films/2023/07/21/inside-el-salvadors-war-on-crime

    More importantly and interestingly, how long before it is tried in an advanced western nation with spiraling crime and urban decay?

    The self-styled "cool dictator" has stratospheric popularity. People like the Singapore approach. Zero tolerance. String em up or bang em up.

    Within a decade we will see a version in the west, is my bet. Prime candidates: the USA, or Sweden. Perhaps Italy or France next

    The problem any western country would face is that they couldn't easily copy anything remotely like that without formally giving up on the pretence of the 'rules-based international community'. It would mean the end of the current conception of what the West is.
    It will happen, nonetheless

    The West as we know it is over
    What about the Enlightenment though?
    We need tougher sentences and more police on the beat, we don't need detention without charge or trial
    No fucking shit.... see, if you guys weren't so full of it, you'd recognise why we are members of the ECHR and, say, Belarus and Russia are not.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,767
    edited August 2023
    TimS said:

    #Morocco for the first time reliably surpasses 50C

    Valencia set a new record of 46.8C yesterday. Glad I'm not still there.
    Much more pleasant warm-wave due for the (South of the) UK over the next couple of weeks. That I suppose is the flip side of not being Portugal.
    2023 - the year with no UK summer!

    Just Kidding!

    image
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    On topic, it's just practically really difficult to get this done. You need all the member states to agree, and you also need to work out the terms. I expect if you polled it with "Would you support rejoin if the rebate was gone and it cost more" then you'd have a drop in support, and if you polled it with "Would you support rejoin if it meant joining the Euro" that would be another drop. In practice you could probably use the Swedish cheat-codes and have a formal promise to join the Euro but never satisfy the preconditions, but if that was the plan then it would be really easy to FUD.

    I think the way to do it might be to pull it from the other end, ie you want some UK-friendly EU member state like the Dutch or the Polish that gets the rotating presidency to coordinate an *offer* for the UK to rejoin. They'd have to get all the member states to agree to the terms of the offer. Then they can put it to the UK PM who would reasonably be able to say "we have this offer which may not be available again, let me put it to the voters quick", and if the voters turn it down then it probably doesn't destroy the said UK PM. But the problem whether you have 27 member states who will agree to this at any given time is a bit random and not really up to the UK.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,010
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    'A planned cage fight between tech leaders Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg could now take place in Italy, and have an ancient Rome theme.

    In the story's latest twist, Italy's culture minister on Friday said that he had spoken to Mr Musk about hosting the showdown as a charity event.

    The billionaire CEOs of Tesla and Meta (formerly Facebook) have been goading each other into the fight since June.

    If it goes ahead, millions are expected to be donated to children's hospitals.

    However, Mr Zuckerberg has said no date has been agreed so far.

    Detailing his vision on social media platform X (previously known as Twitter), Mr Musk said he had spoken to both Italy's prime minister and its culture minister.

    "They have agreed on an epic location," he wrote. "Everything in camera frame will be ancient Rome, so nothing modern at all."

    However the capital Rome, and its iconic Colosseum - where legendary Gladiator fights were held in ancient times - have been ruled out.'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66480636

    I was worried I might be secretly rooting for this absurd event to happen but after a deep and brutally honest self-audit I find that I'm not. Hats off me. I'm ok. Phew.
    I figure if they are going to do it, they should do it properly. Like this. With this as accompanying music
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,301
    nico679 said:

    Bless . The DM going on trans drama on the wards . Braverman could blow up a school bus and the DM would still be doing everything to avoid criticizing this cesspit government.

    In terms of re-join . I think the lead at this point is probably overstated.

    The terms of any re-join are highly unlikely to be as good as what the UK originally had .

    The problem for public perception of Brexit is its suffering to some degree with being used as a punchbag for everything that’s going wrong in the country . Similar to the ref where the EU was caught in the crossfire of public anger at austerity .

    The only group still in love with Brexit seem to be the over 65s . The majority of this group still seem to be determined to inflict another 5 years of the Tories on the country.


    To some extent this polling is correlated to the domestic economic situation in the UK.

    If you look at the very early 1980s, when we experienced a strong recession, support for British EEC membership plummeted (this was about 8 years after joining and just after Commonwealth preference had finally been phased out) but by constrast was strongly supportive of EC/EU membership again by the mid-late 1990s. Also, kernel polling on Brexit around 2010-2012 in the aftermath of the GFC and euro crisis also showed strong leads for Leave. It was stabilising again by 2013-2014 and looking more balanced.

    If the UK economy was experiencing real growth and low inflation, with the Cost of Living crisis abated, then I'd expect this gap to diminish irrespective of whether we were doing significantly better than EU countries or not.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    nico679 said:

    Bless . The DM going on trans drama on the wards . Braverman could blow up a school bus and the DM would still be doing everything to avoid criticizing this cesspit government.

    In terms of re-join . I think the lead at this point is probably overstated.

    The terms of any re-join are highly unlikely to be as good as what the UK originally had .

    The problem for public perception of Brexit is its suffering to some degree with being used as a punchbag for everything that’s going wrong in the country . Similar to the ref where the EU was caught in the crossfire of public anger at austerity .

    The only group still in love with Brexit seem to be the over 65s . The majority of this group still seem to be determined to inflict another 5 years of the Tories on the country.


    To some extent this polling is correlated to the domestic economic situation in the UK.

    If you look at the very early 1980s, when we experienced a strong recession, support for British EEC membership plummeted (this was about 8 years after joining and just after Commonwealth preference had finally been phased out) but by constrast was strongly supportive of EC/EU membership again by the mid-late 1990s. Also, kernel polling on Brexit around 2010-2012 in the aftermath of the GFC and euro crisis also showed strong leads for Leave. It was stabilising again by 2013-2014 and looking more balanced.

    If the UK economy was experiencing real growth and low inflation, with the Cost of Living crisis abated, then I'd expect this gap to diminish irrespective of whether we were doing significantly better than EU countries or not.
    The related problem is that if the UK economy is bad then the voters are going to be mad at their government as well as Brexit, so if the government proposes to reverse Brexit, some of the voters will vote to keep Brexit to express their annoyance at the government.

    You can do it right after a period of Conservative rule when the voters are still mad at the previous government, but you only get a window like that once every 10 or 20 years or so and it doesn't look like it'll happen in the next one.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,500
    GDP per head uses (I assume) the mean. Perhaps using the median would be more illuminating.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,648
    Andy_JS said:

    GDP per head uses (I assume) the mean. Perhaps using the median would be more illuminating.

    Impossible to work out how much each individual has contributed to GDP surely?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,500
    "Countess Alexandra Tolstoy: Debanked for being Russian"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzJi94u4tIc
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,010

    Andy_JS said:

    GDP per head uses (I assume) the mean. Perhaps using the median would be more illuminating.

    Impossible to work out how much each individual has contributed to GDP surely?
    And, perhaps more germanely, what each individual has gained from it.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited August 2023
    Totally OT, thread on British post-war industrial policy on r/neoliberal, I had no idea about a lot of this. (Also no idea if it's true.)

    https://old.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/15ocm0p/is_britain_really_as_poor_as_mississippi/

    For example:

    > "The UK post-war decided to cripple it's second biggest economic centre (Birmingham) by placing it into a managed decline where the intended goal was to reduce the population of the city and force businesses out of Birmingham and into deprived regions. This was also extended to Leicester and Coventry, cities that were also thriving in the run-up to WWII and immediately postwar relative to the rest of the UK. Also, as new service-orientated businesses were prevented from developing locally (as in, there was literally bans on new factories and offices, if you wanted to build a new factory or office in Leicester, Birmingham or Coventry you needed to ask the London-based civil service who said no) there was a reliance on the old, established manufacturing businesses which then went pop in the 1970s and as there was no service-sector built up those cities got passed over during the 1980s while cities with the bulk of the service sector were able to thrive."

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,340

    Totally OT, thread on British post-war industrial policy on r/neoliberal, I had no idea about a lot of this. (Also no idea if it's true.)

    https://old.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/15ocm0p/is_britain_really_as_poor_as_mississippi/

    For example:

    > "The UK post-war decided to cripple it's second biggest economic centre (Birmingham) by placing it into a managed decline where the intended goal was to reduce the population of the city and force businesses out of Birmingham and into deprived regions. This was also extended to Leicester and Coventry, cities that were also thriving in the run-up to WWII and immediately postwar relative to the rest of the UK. Also, as new service-orientated businesses were prevented from developing locally (as in, there was literally bans on new factories and offices, if you wanted to build a new factory or office in Leicester, Birmingham or Coventry you needed to ask the London-based civil service who said no) there was a reliance on the old, established manufacturing businesses which then went pop in the 1970s and as there was no service-sector built up those cities got passed over during the 1980s while cities with the bulk of the service sector were able to thrive."

    No, it is not true. What killed Birmingham’s economy was the collapse of the domestic motor manufacturing industry, which was cock-up not conspiracy. British Leyland may have been state owned, for example, but BMMO’s factory was int rouble long before nationalisation.

    There are also plenty of service industries available in Birmingham, and indeed still many other factories, they just don’t make up for its loss.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,648
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    GDP per head uses (I assume) the mean. Perhaps using the median would be more illuminating.

    Impossible to work out how much each individual has contributed to GDP surely?
    And, perhaps more germanely, what each individual has gained from it.
    That's easier and stats are available:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/householddisposableincomeandinequality/financialyearending2022
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,194

    Miklosvar said:

    You cannot still be a firm believer, it's like being a Christian and dying and discovering that dead is actually dead, no harps or angels or hellfire. Conclusive refutation.

    Tripe. And a weak analogy. A Christian dying and entering oblivion doesn't 'discover' anything; they're no worse off than an atheist.
    All those Sunday mornings in church while the rest of us are having a lie in, and perhaps something else, sounds like being worse off to me.
    Ah but we get top drawer banging tunes. At least when it’s me or @ydoethur playing.
    Toccata and Fugue in D minor ? :-)
    To be honest I’m rubbish at Bach but yes, I can and do play that because people love it so much…
    But is your Bach worse than your Bite?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,038

    nico679 said:

    Bless . The DM going on trans drama on the wards . Braverman could blow up a school bus and the DM would still be doing everything to avoid criticizing this cesspit government.

    In terms of re-join . I think the lead at this point is probably overstated.

    The terms of any re-join are highly unlikely to be as good as what the UK originally had .

    The problem for public perception of Brexit is its suffering to some degree with being used as a punchbag for everything that’s going wrong in the country . Similar to the ref where the EU was caught in the crossfire of public anger at austerity .

    The only group still in love with Brexit seem to be the over 65s . The majority of this group still seem to be determined to inflict another 5 years of the Tories on the country.


    To some extent this polling is correlated to the domestic economic situation in the UK.

    If you look at the very early 1980s, when we experienced a strong recession, support for British EEC membership plummeted (this was about 8 years after joining and just after Commonwealth preference had finally been phased out) but by constrast was strongly supportive of EC/EU membership again by the mid-late 1990s. Also, kernel polling on Brexit around 2010-2012 in the aftermath of the GFC and euro crisis also showed strong leads for Leave. It was stabilising again by 2013-2014 and looking more balanced.

    If the UK economy was experiencing real growth and low inflation, with the Cost of Living crisis abated, then I'd expect this gap to diminish irrespective of whether we were doing significantly better than EU countries or not.
    Quite:

    Brexit is the punchbag.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,194

    The desire to rejoin the EU is like pining after a lost girlfriend. She got married and left the country and she isn't coming back. Should have treated her better the first time.

    More than that.

    Rejoinders are basing their optimism on polls. That’s not sufficient.

    There needs to be a sustained effort to build a long term basis of support for the EU. There seems to be no attempt to do so.

    Instead they are relying on a general malaise, cussedness with the government and a media led tendency to blame everything on Brexit
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,648
    rcs1000 said:

    nico679 said:

    Bless . The DM going on trans drama on the wards . Braverman could blow up a school bus and the DM would still be doing everything to avoid criticizing this cesspit government.

    In terms of re-join . I think the lead at this point is probably overstated.

    The terms of any re-join are highly unlikely to be as good as what the UK originally had .

    The problem for public perception of Brexit is its suffering to some degree with being used as a punchbag for everything that’s going wrong in the country . Similar to the ref where the EU was caught in the crossfire of public anger at austerity .

    The only group still in love with Brexit seem to be the over 65s . The majority of this group still seem to be determined to inflict another 5 years of the Tories on the country.


    To some extent this polling is correlated to the domestic economic situation in the UK.

    If you look at the very early 1980s, when we experienced a strong recession, support for British EEC membership plummeted (this was about 8 years after joining and just after Commonwealth preference had finally been phased out) but by constrast was strongly supportive of EC/EU membership again by the mid-late 1990s. Also, kernel polling on Brexit around 2010-2012 in the aftermath of the GFC and euro crisis also showed strong leads for Leave. It was stabilising again by 2013-2014 and looking more balanced.

    If the UK economy was experiencing real growth and low inflation, with the Cost of Living crisis abated, then I'd expect this gap to diminish irrespective of whether we were doing significantly better than EU countries or not.
    Quite:

    Brexit is the punchbag.
    ...replacing the EU.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,194
    viewcode said:

    Miklosvar said:

    viewcode said:

    Miklosvar said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Miklosvar said:

    You cannot still be a firm believer, it's like being a Christian and dying and discovering that dead is actually dead, no harps or angels or hellfire. Conclusive refutation.

    Or an atheist discovering they end up at the Pearly Gates in front of St Peter
    What a result that would be. Spend my whole life not giving a toss about religion, bemused by true believers . Pop my clogs then still get into heaven.
    It doesn't work like that.
    How do you know?
    Good works are not enough (that's the Pelagian heresy), one must also believe in God. There is no route into Heaven other than by that belief. Atheists have no belief and so cannot enter.
    Are you the Pope in disguise, and if not who are you to say what's a heresy?

    You're in for a nasty surprise when you pop your clogs, or rather you aren't.
    • "Are you the Pope in disguise?" No
    • "Who are you to say what's a heresy?". I dont get to decide. Other people do. I'm just telling you what they decided. No belief, no Heaven.
    • "You're in for a nasty surprise when you pop your clogs". I doubt I'd be surprised. Terrified and bitterly disappointed, yes, but surprised no.
    • "Or rather you aren't". Unfortunately you are wrong on that.
    The Council of Carthage 418 gets to decide things for you?

    Right
    Not quite. They get to decide things for you. Or rather they provide a framework from which you may or may not differ after careful study, on the understanding that if you get it wrong Hell is a possible outcome.


    PB is chock to the brim of rich elderly atheists who don't gamble. It's weird.
    And poor young believers who take calculated risks every day.

    I must be doing something wrong 🫡
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,574
    rcs1000 said:

    nico679 said:

    Bless . The DM going on trans drama on the wards . Braverman could blow up a school bus and the DM would still be doing everything to avoid criticizing this cesspit government.

    In terms of re-join . I think the lead at this point is probably overstated.

    The terms of any re-join are highly unlikely to be as good as what the UK originally had .

    The problem for public perception of Brexit is its suffering to some degree with being used as a punchbag for everything that’s going wrong in the country . Similar to the ref where the EU was caught in the crossfire of public anger at austerity .

    The only group still in love with Brexit seem to be the over 65s . The majority of this group still seem to be determined to inflict another 5 years of the Tories on the country.


    To some extent this polling is correlated to the domestic economic situation in the UK.

    If you look at the very early 1980s, when we experienced a strong recession, support for British EEC membership plummeted (this was about 8 years after joining and just after Commonwealth preference had finally been phased out) but by constrast was strongly supportive of EC/EU membership again by the mid-late 1990s. Also, kernel polling on Brexit around 2010-2012 in the aftermath of the GFC and euro crisis also showed strong leads for Leave. It was stabilising again by 2013-2014 and looking more balanced.

    If the UK economy was experiencing real growth and low inflation, with the Cost of Living crisis abated, then I'd expect this gap to diminish irrespective of whether we were doing significantly better than EU countries or not.
    Quite:

    Brexit is the punchbag.
    Brexit is inextricably tied to the Tories, and always will be. It will be a major drag on the Tory vote for the foreable future, an albatross around its neck.

    Neither Labour nor Tories are proposing Rejoin any time soon, but 62% of the electorate cannot just be ignored on this. Sooner or later one or both major parties will have to meet them there.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,648
    edited August 2023
    ydoethur said:

    Totally OT, thread on British post-war industrial policy on r/neoliberal, I had no idea about a lot of this. (Also no idea if it's true.)

    https://old.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/15ocm0p/is_britain_really_as_poor_as_mississippi/

    For example:

    > "The UK post-war decided to cripple it's second biggest economic centre (Birmingham) by placing it into a managed decline where the intended goal was to reduce the population of the city and force businesses out of Birmingham and into deprived regions. This was also extended to Leicester and Coventry, cities that were also thriving in the run-up to WWII and immediately postwar relative to the rest of the UK. Also, as new service-orientated businesses were prevented from developing locally (as in, there was literally bans on new factories and offices, if you wanted to build a new factory or office in Leicester, Birmingham or Coventry you needed to ask the London-based civil service who said no) there was a reliance on the old, established manufacturing businesses which then went pop in the 1970s and as there was no service-sector built up those cities got passed over during the 1980s while cities with the bulk of the service sector were able to thrive."

    No, it is not true. What killed Birmingham’s economy was the collapse of the domestic motor manufacturing industry, which was cock-up not conspiracy. British Leyland may have been state owned, for example, but BMMO’s factory was int rouble long before nationalisation.

    There are also plenty of service industries available in Birmingham, and indeed still many other factories, they just don’t make up for its loss.
    The story of the British motor industry, and even more so the motorcycle industry, is one of gross mismanagement, arrogance, shortsightedness, and resistance to change.

    Anyone who feels 'national character' is a 'thing' might ask themselves how a nation that generated so much innovation in the 19th century, delivered such turgid stagnation a 100 years later.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,648
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nico679 said:

    Bless . The DM going on trans drama on the wards . Braverman could blow up a school bus and the DM would still be doing everything to avoid criticizing this cesspit government.

    In terms of re-join . I think the lead at this point is probably overstated.

    The terms of any re-join are highly unlikely to be as good as what the UK originally had .

    The problem for public perception of Brexit is its suffering to some degree with being used as a punchbag for everything that’s going wrong in the country . Similar to the ref where the EU was caught in the crossfire of public anger at austerity .

    The only group still in love with Brexit seem to be the over 65s . The majority of this group still seem to be determined to inflict another 5 years of the Tories on the country.


    To some extent this polling is correlated to the domestic economic situation in the UK.

    If you look at the very early 1980s, when we experienced a strong recession, support for British EEC membership plummeted (this was about 8 years after joining and just after Commonwealth preference had finally been phased out) but by constrast was strongly supportive of EC/EU membership again by the mid-late 1990s. Also, kernel polling on Brexit around 2010-2012 in the aftermath of the GFC and euro crisis also showed strong leads for Leave. It was stabilising again by 2013-2014 and looking more balanced.

    If the UK economy was experiencing real growth and low inflation, with the Cost of Living crisis abated, then I'd expect this gap to diminish irrespective of whether we were doing significantly better than EU countries or not.
    Quite:

    Brexit is the punchbag.
    Brexit is inextricably tied to the Tories, and always will be. It will be a major drag on the Tory vote for the foreable future, an albatross around its neck.

    Neither Labour nor Tories are proposing Rejoin any time soon, but 62% of the electorate cannot just be ignored on this. Sooner or later one or both major parties will have to meet them there.
    I could see the Tories proposing rejoin in 10-15 years time, once they've reinvented themselves as the part of business again.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,015

    On topic, it's just practically really difficult to get this done. You need all the member states to agree, and you also need to work out the terms. I expect if you polled it with "Would you support rejoin if the rebate was gone and it cost more" then you'd have a drop in support, and if you polled it with "Would you support rejoin if it meant joining the Euro" that would be another drop. In practice you could probably use the Swedish cheat-codes and have a formal promise to join the Euro but never satisfy the preconditions, but if that was the plan then it would be really easy to FUD.

    I think the way to do it might be to pull it from the other end, ie you want some UK-friendly EU member state like the Dutch or the Polish that gets the rotating presidency to coordinate an *offer* for the UK to rejoin. They'd have to get all the member states to agree to the terms of the offer. Then they can put it to the UK PM who would reasonably be able to say "we have this offer which may not be available again, let me put it to the voters quick", and if the voters turn it down then it probably doesn't destroy the said UK PM. But the problem whether you have 27 member states who will agree to this at any given time is a bit random and not really up to the UK.

    On whether all 27 member states would want us to rejoin, I think they probably would as we'd be big net payers, and the EU has always had a gigantic appetite for our money. Why we'd be idiots enough to give it to them is another question.

    We already know the terms. They are set out very clearly by the EU and they've shown no flexibility about them whatsoever, not least because if they allowed us to pick and choose, they'd set up a precedent for Bosnia, Serbia, Ukraine, etc. We'd almost certainly have to join the Euro, accept free movement and adopt the full EU acquis, whatever that looks like then. Oh, and we'd have given up most of our rebate. The public doesn't realise any of this, so all polls on this issue are meaningless unless those terms are set out.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,648
    Fishing said:

    On topic, it's just practically really difficult to get this done. You need all the member states to agree, and you also need to work out the terms. I expect if you polled it with "Would you support rejoin if the rebate was gone and it cost more" then you'd have a drop in support, and if you polled it with "Would you support rejoin if it meant joining the Euro" that would be another drop. In practice you could probably use the Swedish cheat-codes and have a formal promise to join the Euro but never satisfy the preconditions, but if that was the plan then it would be really easy to FUD.

    I think the way to do it might be to pull it from the other end, ie you want some UK-friendly EU member state like the Dutch or the Polish that gets the rotating presidency to coordinate an *offer* for the UK to rejoin. They'd have to get all the member states to agree to the terms of the offer. Then they can put it to the UK PM who would reasonably be able to say "we have this offer which may not be available again, let me put it to the voters quick", and if the voters turn it down then it probably doesn't destroy the said UK PM. But the problem whether you have 27 member states who will agree to this at any given time is a bit random and not really up to the UK.

    On whether all 27 member states would want us to rejoin, I think they probably would as we'd be big net payers, and the EU has always had a gigantic appetite for our money. Why we'd be idiots enough to give it to them is another question.

    We already know the terms. They are set out very clearly by the EU and they've shown no flexibility about them whatsoever, not least because if they allowed us to pick and choose, they'd set up a precedent for Bosnia, Serbia, Ukraine, etc. We'd almost certainly have to join the Euro, accept free movement and adopt the full EU acquis, whatever that looks like then. Oh, and we'd have given up most of our rebate. The public doesn't realise any of this, so all polls on this issue are meaningless unless those terms are set out.
    Given where we are now, I'd be happy with a Switzerland or Norway arrangement. We'd still have to pay of course but 0.25-0.5% of GDP would be well worth it, given it would boost our GDP by more than that.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295

    ydoethur said:

    Totally OT, thread on British post-war industrial policy on r/neoliberal, I had no idea about a lot of this. (Also no idea if it's true.)

    https://old.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/15ocm0p/is_britain_really_as_poor_as_mississippi/

    For example:

    > "The UK post-war decided to cripple it's second biggest economic centre (Birmingham) by placing it into a managed decline where the intended goal was to reduce the population of the city and force businesses out of Birmingham and into deprived regions. This was also extended to Leicester and Coventry, cities that were also thriving in the run-up to WWII and immediately postwar relative to the rest of the UK. Also, as new service-orientated businesses were prevented from developing locally (as in, there was literally bans on new factories and offices, if you wanted to build a new factory or office in Leicester, Birmingham or Coventry you needed to ask the London-based civil service who said no) there was a reliance on the old, established manufacturing businesses which then went pop in the 1970s and as there was no service-sector built up those cities got passed over during the 1980s while cities with the bulk of the service sector were able to thrive."

    No, it is not true. What killed Birmingham’s economy was the collapse of the domestic motor manufacturing industry, which was cock-up not conspiracy. British Leyland may have been state owned, for example, but BMMO’s factory was int rouble long before nationalisation.

    There are also plenty of service industries available in Birmingham, and indeed still many other factories, they just don’t make up for its loss.
    The story of the British motor industry, and even more so the motorcycle industry, is one of gross mismanagement, arrogance, shortsightedness, and resistance to change.

    Anyone who feels 'national character' is a 'thing' might ask themselves how a nation that generated so much innovation in the 19th century, delivered such turgid stagnation a 100 years later.
    Has anyone studied the class structure of the industrial revolution’s inventors and entrepreneurs?

    I wonder if they were preponderantly lower middle class, outsiders, and second sons.

    Who then handed over the industrial economy of posh twats who then fucked it up through arrogance and complacency.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Morning all.

    Yes, Labour could but only after they have shown their competence through one full term. So it might be a campaign message for the second term or at least after several years.

    And of course Brussels would have us back. It serves as the perfect lesson to any other country thinking of shooting themselves in the foot as the UK have.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Leon said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    How long before a populist strongman tries The El Salvador Method on a much bigger LatAm nation?


    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/7/could-el-salvadors-gang-crackdown-spread-across-latin-america

    https://www.economist.com/films/2023/07/21/inside-el-salvadors-war-on-crime

    More importantly and interestingly, how long before it is tried in an advanced western nation with spiraling crime and urban decay?

    The self-styled "cool dictator" has stratospheric popularity. People like the Singapore approach. Zero tolerance. String em up or bang em up.

    Within a decade we will see a version in the west, is my bet. Prime candidates: the USA, or Sweden. Perhaps Italy or France next

    The problem any western country would face is that they couldn't easily copy anything remotely like that without formally giving up on the pretence of the 'rules-based international community'. It would mean the end of the current conception of what the West is.
    It will happen, nonetheless

    The West as we know it is over
    You don't need to embrace El Salvador methods because you can put everyone under real time surveillance and then crime becomes futile, you get caught immediately. The technology is flawed but it is already here and is going to get better. We are about 30 years in to the roll out of it. If you look at how serious crimes are almost always solved it is because of CCTV, ANPR etc.

    Of the two methods of dealing with crime (arbitrary indefinite detention of those who are suspicious vs what I have described above), western populations will almost acquiesce with the latter. Generally people aren't too happy with wrongful convictions, they wouldn't go along with a system where there is no due process.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    edited August 2023
    Regarding Brexit polling I am quite suspicious of it, I suspect it reflects the rapid die off of 2016 Brexit voters. But if you put the question back to voters again and they actually have to contemplate what being in the EU means (giving up sovereignty, having to follow rules that you don't have complete control over, having to accept unlimited immigration) then it would probably be a very close run thing, so high risk for any government to advocate.

    There would need to be a change in circumstances whereby rejoining the EU became massively in our interest - I don't think these circumstances exist yet.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,574
    edited August 2023

    ydoethur said:

    Totally OT, thread on British post-war industrial policy on r/neoliberal, I had no idea about a lot of this. (Also no idea if it's true.)

    https://old.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/15ocm0p/is_britain_really_as_poor_as_mississippi/

    For example:

    > "The UK post-war decided to cripple it's second biggest economic centre (Birmingham) by placing it into a managed decline where the intended goal was to reduce the population of the city and force businesses out of Birmingham and into deprived regions. This was also extended to Leicester and Coventry, cities that were also thriving in the run-up to WWII and immediately postwar relative to the rest of the UK. Also, as new service-orientated businesses were prevented from developing locally (as in, there was literally bans on new factories and offices, if you wanted to build a new factory or office in Leicester, Birmingham or Coventry you needed to ask the London-based civil service who said no) there was a reliance on the old, established manufacturing businesses which then went pop in the 1970s and as there was no service-sector built up those cities got passed over during the 1980s while cities with the bulk of the service sector were able to thrive."

    No, it is not true. What killed Birmingham’s economy was the collapse of the domestic motor manufacturing industry, which was cock-up not conspiracy. British Leyland may have been state owned, for example, but BMMO’s factory was int rouble long before nationalisation.

    There are also plenty of service industries available in Birmingham, and indeed still many other factories, they just don’t make up for its loss.
    The story of the British motor industry, and even more so the motorcycle industry, is one of gross mismanagement, arrogance, shortsightedness, and resistance to change.

    Anyone who feels 'national character' is a 'thing' might ask themselves how a nation that generated so much innovation in the 19th century, delivered such turgid stagnation a 100 years later.
    Has anyone studied the class structure of the industrial revolution’s inventors and entrepreneurs?

    I wonder if they were preponderantly lower middle class, outsiders, and second sons.

    Who then handed over the industrial economy of posh twats who then fucked it up through arrogance and complacency.
    The decline of mass manufacturing in Britain is quite some object lesson. The British motorcycling industry went from global dominance to bankruptcy in 20 years, and it wasn't trade unionism that did it. It was a failure to invest in design, to retool and redesign production lines, and most of all a failure of management to understand the market.

    In 1970 BSA, Triumph and Norton were making motorcycles on pre war production lines, and with fundamentally the same designs as 20 years earlier. It wasn't just rising prosperity turning customers to small cars like the Mini or Austin 1100, as first the Italians then the Japanese sold vast quantities of small reliable, clean commuter machines. It was management failure, and a business culture that saw long term investment as a cost and only cared about the short term.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,648
    darkage said:

    Regarding Brexit polling I am quite suspicious of it, I suspect it reflects the rapid die off of 2016 Brexit voters. But if you put the question back to voters again and they actually have to contemplate what being in the EU means (giving up sovereignty, having to follow rules that you don't have complete control over, having to accept unlimited immigration) then it would probably be a very close run thing, so high risk for any government to advocate.

    There would need to be a change in circumstances whereby rejoining the EU became massively in our interest - I don't think these circumstances exist yet.

    As seen through your own eyes. Those issues you mention were never a problem for me.

    Regarding the 'rapid die off of 2016 Brexit voters' that surely wouldn't account for 52/48 changing to 38/62.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,574

    darkage said:

    Regarding Brexit polling I am quite suspicious of it, I suspect it reflects the rapid die off of 2016 Brexit voters. But if you put the question back to voters again and they actually have to contemplate what being in the EU means (giving up sovereignty, having to follow rules that you don't have complete control over, having to accept unlimited immigration) then it would probably be a very close run thing, so high risk for any government to advocate.

    There would need to be a change in circumstances whereby rejoining the EU became massively in our interest - I don't think these circumstances exist yet.

    As seen through your own eyes. Those issues you mention were never a problem for me.

    Regarding the 'rapid die off of 2016 Brexit voters' that surely wouldn't account for 52/48 changing to 38/62.
    Not least because we are increasingly following rules that we now have no say in!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,340
    edited August 2023

    darkage said:

    Regarding Brexit polling I am quite suspicious of it, I suspect it reflects the rapid die off of 2016 Brexit voters. But if you put the question back to voters again and they actually have to contemplate what being in the EU means (giving up sovereignty, having to follow rules that you don't have complete control over, having to accept unlimited immigration) then it would probably be a very close run thing, so high risk for any government to advocate.

    There would need to be a change in circumstances whereby rejoining the EU became massively in our interest - I don't think these circumstances exist yet.

    As seen through your own eyes. Those issues you mention were never a problem for me.

    Regarding the 'rapid die off of 2016 Brexit voters' that surely wouldn't account for 52/48 changing to 38/62.
    We should also remember though that most polls consistently showed Leave behind in the run up to the vote.

    That’s one reason why the result was a genuine shock.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    darkage said:

    Regarding Brexit polling I am quite suspicious of it, I suspect it reflects the rapid die off of 2016 Brexit voters. But if you put the question back to voters again and they actually have to contemplate what being in the EU means (giving up sovereignty, having to follow rules that you don't have complete control over, having to accept unlimited immigration) then it would probably be a very close run thing, so high risk for any government to advocate.

    There would need to be a change in circumstances whereby rejoining the EU became massively in our interest - I don't think these circumstances exist yet.

    As seen through your own eyes. Those issues you mention were never a problem for me.

    Regarding the 'rapid die off of 2016 Brexit voters' that surely wouldn't account for 52/48 changing to 38/62.
    Not that it is really relevant but I voted remain and would probably vote for rejoin.
    But I think the question is being perceived more broadly as too much of a rerun of 2016. The danger is that we aren't really thinking through what it would mean in practice to rejoin the EU if it became a serious proposition. What are the benefits - and what would be the annual cost?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Foxy said:

    darkage said:

    Regarding Brexit polling I am quite suspicious of it, I suspect it reflects the rapid die off of 2016 Brexit voters. But if you put the question back to voters again and they actually have to contemplate what being in the EU means (giving up sovereignty, having to follow rules that you don't have complete control over, having to accept unlimited immigration) then it would probably be a very close run thing, so high risk for any government to advocate.

    There would need to be a change in circumstances whereby rejoining the EU became massively in our interest - I don't think these circumstances exist yet.

    As seen through your own eyes. Those issues you mention were never a problem for me.

    Regarding the 'rapid die off of 2016 Brexit voters' that surely wouldn't account for 52/48 changing to 38/62.
    Not least because we are increasingly following rules that we now have no say in!
    The contradiction of Brexit was that we did have a say in the rules , but we didn't use it in a constructive way and instead used the EU as a punchbag. If you have this kind of toxic partner in a relationship then it is perhaps for the best that they are kicked out.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    ydoethur said:

    Totally OT, thread on British post-war industrial policy on r/neoliberal, I had no idea about a lot of this. (Also no idea if it's true.)

    https://old.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/15ocm0p/is_britain_really_as_poor_as_mississippi/

    For example:

    > "The UK post-war decided to cripple it's second biggest economic centre (Birmingham) by placing it into a managed decline where the intended goal was to reduce the population of the city and force businesses out of Birmingham and into deprived regions. This was also extended to Leicester and Coventry, cities that were also thriving in the run-up to WWII and immediately postwar relative to the rest of the UK. Also, as new service-orientated businesses were prevented from developing locally (as in, there was literally bans on new factories and offices, if you wanted to build a new factory or office in Leicester, Birmingham or Coventry you needed to ask the London-based civil service who said no) there was a reliance on the old, established manufacturing businesses which then went pop in the 1970s and as there was no service-sector built up those cities got passed over during the 1980s while cities with the bulk of the service sector were able to thrive."

    No, it is not true. What killed Birmingham’s economy was the collapse of the domestic motor manufacturing industry, which was cock-up not conspiracy. British Leyland may have been state owned, for example, but BMMO’s factory was int rouble long before nationalisation.

    There are also plenty of service industries available in Birmingham, and indeed still many other factories, they just don’t make up for its loss.
    The story of the British motor industry, and even more so the motorcycle industry, is one of gross mismanagement, arrogance, shortsightedness, and resistance to change.
    The motorcycle industry was affected by some different factors to the car business. Post WW2 the motorbike was the worker's transport so when mass car affordability started in the 60s they were particularly badly impacted by falling sales. Motorcyling changed to being more of a lifestyle and recreational activity and the British manufacturers, who were almost all under the same incompetent management by this time, failed to anticipate and respond. The rise of the pound as a petro-currency in the 80s killed the few remaining export markets and that was the final bolt in the leaky crankcase.

    The Japanese invasion didn't kill off other European manufacturers like BMW, Ducati and Guzzi so there's more to it than that.

    Triumph eventually came back. They sold about 38,000 bikes in 1970 but 84,000 in 2022 - though not all built in the UK. I mean, I wouldn't have one, but there's no doubt they are now very successful. BSA are also attempting a comeback and various shysters keep shagging the lifeless corpse of Norton.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,574
    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    Totally OT, thread on British post-war industrial policy on r/neoliberal, I had no idea about a lot of this. (Also no idea if it's true.)

    https://old.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/15ocm0p/is_britain_really_as_poor_as_mississippi/

    For example:

    > "The UK post-war decided to cripple it's second biggest economic centre (Birmingham) by placing it into a managed decline where the intended goal was to reduce the population of the city and force businesses out of Birmingham and into deprived regions. This was also extended to Leicester and Coventry, cities that were also thriving in the run-up to WWII and immediately postwar relative to the rest of the UK. Also, as new service-orientated businesses were prevented from developing locally (as in, there was literally bans on new factories and offices, if you wanted to build a new factory or office in Leicester, Birmingham or Coventry you needed to ask the London-based civil service who said no) there was a reliance on the old, established manufacturing businesses which then went pop in the 1970s and as there was no service-sector built up those cities got passed over during the 1980s while cities with the bulk of the service sector were able to thrive."

    No, it is not true. What killed Birmingham’s economy was the collapse of the domestic motor manufacturing industry, which was cock-up not conspiracy. British Leyland may have been state owned, for example, but BMMO’s factory was int rouble long before nationalisation.

    There are also plenty of service industries available in Birmingham, and indeed still many other factories, they just don’t make up for its loss.
    The story of the British motor industry, and even more so the motorcycle industry, is one of gross mismanagement, arrogance, shortsightedness, and resistance to change.
    The motorcycle industry was affected by some different factors to the car business. Post WW2 the motorbike was the worker's transport so when mass car affordability started in the 60s they were particularly badly impacted by falling sales. Motorcyling changed to being more of a lifestyle and recreational activity and the British manufacturers, who were almost all under the same incompetent management by this time, failed to anticipate and respond. The rise of the pound as a petro-currency in the 80s killed the few remaining export markets and that was the final bolt in the leaky crankcase.

    The Japanese invasion didn't kill off other European manufacturers like BMW, Ducati and Guzzi so there's more to it than that.

    Triumph eventually came back. They sold about 38,000 bikes in 1970 but 84,000 in 2022 - though not all built in the UK. I mean, I wouldn't have one, but there's no doubt they are now very successful. BSA are also attempting a comeback and various shysters keep shagging the lifeless corpse of Norton.
    Triumph is a rare successful revival, though 90% are now made in Thailand rather than Leics. The new BSA have a bit of retro appeal but are made in India, not Brum.

    Both are marketed for hobbyist and nostalgia markets. The vast market for smaller commuter machines is something that still exists. The Honda Super Cub is the best selling motor vehicle of all time, and the ubiquitous small scooters delivering pizzas sell in vast numbers too. British manufacturers were never interested in that market.



  • I need a new irony meter

    Nicola Sturgeon cuts a ‘sad, almost reduced’ figure, says Alex Salmond

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nicola-sturgeon-denies-being-tipped-off-about-snp-fraud-arrests-ftvftsj6z
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Fishing said:

    On topic, it's just practically really difficult to get this done. You need all the member states to agree, and you also need to work out the terms. I expect if you polled it with "Would you support rejoin if the rebate was gone and it cost more" then you'd have a drop in support, and if you polled it with "Would you support rejoin if it meant joining the Euro" that would be another drop. In practice you could probably use the Swedish cheat-codes and have a formal promise to join the Euro but never satisfy the preconditions, but if that was the plan then it would be really easy to FUD.

    I think the way to do it might be to pull it from the other end, ie you want some UK-friendly EU member state like the Dutch or the Polish that gets the rotating presidency to coordinate an *offer* for the UK to rejoin. They'd have to get all the member states to agree to the terms of the offer. Then they can put it to the UK PM who would reasonably be able to say "we have this offer which may not be available again, let me put it to the voters quick", and if the voters turn it down then it probably doesn't destroy the said UK PM. But the problem whether you have 27 member states who will agree to this at any given time is a bit random and not really up to the UK.

    On whether all 27 member states would want us to rejoin, I think they probably would as we'd be big net payers, and the EU has always had a gigantic appetite for our money. Why we'd be idiots enough to give it to them is another question.

    We already know the terms. They are set out very clearly by the EU and they've shown no flexibility about them whatsoever, not least because if they allowed us to pick and choose, they'd set up a precedent for Bosnia, Serbia, Ukraine, etc. We'd almost certainly have to join the Euro, accept free movement and adopt the full EU acquis, whatever that looks like then. Oh, and we'd have given up most of our rebate. The public doesn't realise any of this, so all polls on this issue are meaningless unless those terms are set out.
    Generally speaking the Euro is something incoming countries want to join, it's not something the rest of the Eurozone need or want to force on anyone. Divergent countries joining it is something that basically nobody wants, they've got enough problems as it is.

    The French might well say "no more funny exceptions for Britain" but accepting the normal rules just means you have to sort of pretend you're going to join the Euro.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,454

    I need a new irony meter

    Nicola Sturgeon cuts a ‘sad, almost reduced’ figure, says Alex Salmond

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nicola-sturgeon-denies-being-tipped-off-about-snp-fraud-arrests-ftvftsj6z

    I would imagine she’s a little krankie too.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,941
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    How long before a populist strongman tries The El Salvador Method on a much bigger LatAm nation?


    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/7/could-el-salvadors-gang-crackdown-spread-across-latin-america

    https://www.economist.com/films/2023/07/21/inside-el-salvadors-war-on-crime

    More importantly and interestingly, how long before it is tried in an advanced western nation with spiraling crime and urban decay?

    The self-styled "cool dictator" has stratospheric popularity. People like the Singapore approach. Zero tolerance. String em up or bang em up.

    Within a decade we will see a version in the west, is my bet. Prime candidates: the USA, or Sweden. Perhaps Italy or France next

    The problem any western country would face is that they couldn't easily copy anything remotely like that without formally giving up on the pretence of the 'rules-based international community'. It would mean the end of the current conception of what the West is.
    It will happen, nonetheless

    The West as we know it is over
    What about the Enlightenment though?
    Leon's just indulging in his strong man wet dream again.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,301
    British Leyland truly was dire.

    I have no idea how it ended up making such uniformly crap cars. It's not as if we didn't have the design and engineering expertise to make good ones in this country.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 688
    What someone (not the current Tory incompetents) needs to do is draw up a list of aspirations - including say removal of trade barriers, visa-free travel, etc - lets call them the green lines. Then another list of objections - including say political integration, euro membership etc - call them the red lines. Then consider all of the possible permutations ranging from fully rejoining (inc Euro and Schengen) to remaining fully out (the current shitshow) - seeing how many green lines could be achieved at the expense of giving up sone red lines. Ignoring unicorn expectations I am certain that a majority could coalesce around a EFTA style deal with a view to reconsidering fully rejoining EU at an indeterminate future stage. We just need some grownup thinking (which rules out JRM and others)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,941
    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    Regarding Brexit polling I am quite suspicious of it, I suspect it reflects the rapid die off of 2016 Brexit voters. But if you put the question back to voters again and they actually have to contemplate what being in the EU means (giving up sovereignty, having to follow rules that you don't have complete control over, having to accept unlimited immigration) then it would probably be a very close run thing, so high risk for any government to advocate.

    There would need to be a change in circumstances whereby rejoining the EU became massively in our interest - I don't think these circumstances exist yet.

    As seen through your own eyes. Those issues you mention were never a problem for me.

    Regarding the 'rapid die off of 2016 Brexit voters' that surely wouldn't account for 52/48 changing to 38/62.
    Not that it is really relevant but I voted remain and would probably vote for rejoin.
    But I think the question is being perceived more broadly as too much of a rerun of 2016. The danger is that we aren't really thinking through what it would mean in practice to rejoin the EU if it became a serious proposition. What are the benefits - and what would be the annual cost?
    There will be a lot of time for that debate. It would probably take a number of years of 'rejoin' poll leads before the politicians go anywhere near it.
    In the meantime, governments other than the current one will seek closer arrangements with the EU.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,941
    The current content moderation on what was Twitter.

    "Gas-The-Jews hasn't broken our safety policies."
    https://twitter.com/JupiterQuirinus/status/1689578328368517120
  • On topic, we will rejoin, the only question is who will propose it, Labour or the Tories.

    As for joining the Euro, since we're moving to a cashless society, people won't care if they have Sterling or the Euro as their currency, it is just something in their online account.

    If we were a cash society it might be a different issue.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    On topic, we will rejoin, the only question is who will propose it, Labour or the Tories.

    As for joining the Euro, since we're moving to a cashless society, people won't care if they have Sterling or the Euro as their currency, it is just something in their online account.

    If we were a cash society it might be a different issue.

    Young people don't use cash at all. It's just a number in their phone. They won't give a fuck whether it's Euros or Galleons.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,760
    Nigelb said:

    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    Regarding Brexit polling I am quite suspicious of it, I suspect it reflects the rapid die off of 2016 Brexit voters. But if you put the question back to voters again and they actually have to contemplate what being in the EU means (giving up sovereignty, having to follow rules that you don't have complete control over, having to accept unlimited immigration) then it would probably be a very close run thing, so high risk for any government to advocate.

    There would need to be a change in circumstances whereby rejoining the EU became massively in our interest - I don't think these circumstances exist yet.

    As seen through your own eyes. Those issues you mention were never a problem for me.

    Regarding the 'rapid die off of 2016 Brexit voters' that surely wouldn't account for 52/48 changing to 38/62.
    Not that it is really relevant but I voted remain and would probably vote for rejoin.
    But I think the question is being perceived more broadly as too much of a rerun of 2016. The danger is that we aren't really thinking through what it would mean in practice to rejoin the EU if it became a serious proposition. What are the benefits - and what would be the annual cost?
    There will be a lot of time for that debate. It would probably take a number of years of 'rejoin' poll leads before the politicians go anywhere near it.
    In the meantime, governments other than the current one will seek closer arrangements with the EU.
    The current government are seeking closer arrangements with the EU following the Windsor accords but it has not had much profile recently.

    I am doing a trial in Aberdeen at the moment. It is of a person who, amongst other, more serious, things had been living here as a "French citizen" but who is in fact Algerian. He has been working in London for about 4 years he says. It once again shows how inept our border service and Home Office are. One of the major upsides of leaving the EU was that we would have some idea of who is here and how many there are we are supposed to house etc. Its not really happened.
  • Good morning

    I believe the current polling on the EU is a result of the unpopularity of this government and the economic strains being experienced by so many

    As others had said, in a better economic climate I believe re-join would diminish and there is at present a lot of nostalgia for something which is of the past

    Nobody can say what the future holds re the EU, not least because of continuing change, but as I am not opposed to freedom of movement re-joining the single market appeals to me without going for full membership

    The EU is not a panacea for all our troubles and who could have predicted a couple of years ago that Germany is now the sick country of Europe, we are also witnessing the rise of the right across Europe, and of course the vey serious migration flows into southern Europe are going to increase dramatically with untold consequences

    I expect Brexit will be a constant theme for some, and even if we did re-join it would be naïve to believe it would go away as an issue, as it has been in our politics for decades
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,941
    Great thread.

    Let’s admit that every reporter in DC knows but most won’t say for fear of falling out of favor with the bothsides rules of official DC: there is a two-tiered Justice System. One for Democrats, in which the most exacting focus on conflicts of interest are followed, often going well beyond not only what the law or established norms require but sometimes even basic logic. Meanwhile for Republicans most of these rules simply don’t apply. Ever....
    https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1690091969412845568
  • Good morning

    I believe the current polling on the EU is a result of the unpopularity of this government and the economic strains being experienced by so many

    As others had said, in a better economic climate I believe re-join would diminish and there is at present a lot of nostalgia for something which is of the past

    Nobody can say what the future holds re the EU, not least because of continuing change, but as I am not opposed to freedom of movement re-joining the single market appeals to me without going for full membership

    The EU is not a panacea for all our troubles and who could have predicted a couple of years ago that Germany is now the sick country of Europe, we are also witnessing the rise of the right across Europe, and of course the vey serious migration flows into southern Europe are going to increase dramatically with untold consequences

    I expect Brexit will be a constant theme for some, and even if we did re-join it would be naïve to believe it would go away as an issue, as it has been in our politics for decades

    So you expect support for Rejoin to collapse once we have a Labour government.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,340

    British Leyland truly was dire.

    I have no idea how it ended up making such uniformly crap cars. It's not as if we didn't have the design and engineering expertise to make good ones in this country.

    Because they prized cheapness over quality, and thought they could get away with it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,485
    Re. industrial decline:

    There's a brilliant book about shipbuilding, the Rise and Fall of British Shipbuilding, but Anthony Burton. It's been some time since I read it, but the decline in shipbuilding was far more complex than just bad management! or bad government!, or unions! There are so many other factors, like lack of strategic vision, lack of understanding of the customers, and a radically changing marketplace.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Rise-Fall-British-Shipbuilding/dp/0752489690
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,975
    EPG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    GDP per head is a very poor measure of quality of life. I'd rather live in Portugal than about 40 of the 50 American states, even though Portugal's GDP per head is probably well below every US state including Mississippi.

    Yet Portugal can't support its own population without mass emigration, whereas migrants from rich and poor countries alike flock to America.
    https://www.portugal.com/news/immigrant-population-in-portugal-increases-to-750000/

    Migrants are flocking to Portugal. (Look at the #2 source of them!)
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    On topic, I was a big advocate for staying in the EU.

    I regret that we left but I regret more how the vote tore the country apart. The last thing I want is a rerun of such a national trauma.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,941
    .

    Re. industrial decline:

    There's a brilliant book about shipbuilding, the Rise and Fall of British Shipbuilding, but Anthony Burton. It's been some time since I read it, but the decline in shipbuilding was far more complex than just bad management! or bad government!, or unions! There are so many other factors, like lack of strategic vision, lack of understanding of the customers, and a radically changing marketplace.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Rise-Fall-British-Shipbuilding/dp/0752489690

    Sounds as though a lot of that would apply to the car industry too.
    Much of it seems to have resulted from an unspoken, but deeply ingrained assumption on the part of everyone involved, that they had the market to themselves.

    A kind of wilful blindness, or just deep strupidity.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    Lots of handwaving away a big majority for rejoin in this poll this morning.
    The main concern of the leave voting public, immigration - and the bit people are really concerned about illegal immigration and large numbers hasn't really improved since Brexit.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,975
    darkage said:

    Regarding Brexit polling I am quite suspicious of it, I suspect it reflects the rapid die off of 2016 Brexit voters. But if you put the question back to voters again and they actually have to contemplate what being in the EU means (giving up sovereignty, having to follow rules that you don't have complete control over, having to accept unlimited immigration) then it would probably be a very close run thing, so high risk for any government to advocate.

    There would need to be a change in circumstances whereby rejoining the EU became massively in our interest - I don't think these circumstances exist yet.

    giving up sovereignty - too abstract

    having to follow rules that you don't have complete control over - we’re already doing that; it’s Conservative Govt policy

    having to accept unlimited immigration - immigration is currently higher than it was when we were in the EU; again, Conservative Govt policy
This discussion has been closed.