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New poll has big majority for rejoin – politicalbetting.com

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  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505
    boulay said:

    HYUFD said:

    Miklosvar said:

    You cannot still be a firm believer, it's like being a Christian and dying and discovering that dead is actually dead, no harps or angels or hellfire. Conclusive refutation.

    Or an atheist discovering they end up at the Pearly Gates in front of St Peter
    Is it better to be a religious person spending their life constrained by a set of ancient rules and it turn out that there is no god, or worse you chose the wrong one so are in serious shit with the real one.

    Or being an atheist and trying to blag it with whichever god is real on the basis you didn’t pick a side?

    Not judging just interested.
    Live the reality , worry about the fantasy later
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,769
    Incidentally, have we covered this:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-66449017

    Not a huge surprise, but although it doesn't include an official resignation statement it surely fires the starting gun for a leadership contest.

    Vaughan Gething will surely be favourite for the same reason Yousaf was in Scotland. And he would be the wrong choice for er, much the same reason.

    To be fair, however, neither of the other likely candidates, Eluned Morgan and Jeremy Miles are obviously superior. The only thing they might have going for them in a grassroots contest is they both speak fluent Welsh and I don't think Vaughan Gething does, although he certainly speaks some. But that won't influence the unions or the Labour hierarchy.
  • Good morning

    I believe the current polling on the EU is a result of the unpopularity of this government and the economic strains being experienced by so many

    As others had said, in a better economic climate I believe re-join would diminish and there is at present a lot of nostalgia for something which is of the past

    Nobody can say what the future holds re the EU, not least because of continuing change, but as I am not opposed to freedom of movement re-joining the single market appeals to me without going for full membership

    The EU is not a panacea for all our troubles and who could have predicted a couple of years ago that Germany is now the sick country of Europe, we are also witnessing the rise of the right across Europe, and of course the vey serious migration flows into southern Europe are going to increase dramatically with untold consequences

    I expect Brexit will be a constant theme for some, and even if we did re-join it would be naïve to believe it would go away as an issue, as it has been in our politics for decades

    So you expect support for Rejoin to collapse once we have a Labour government.
    I didn't say collapse but when the economy recovers it will diminish
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,256
    Dura_Ace said:

    British Leyland truly was dire.

    I have no idea how it ended up making such uniformly crap cars. It's not as if we didn't have the design and engineering expertise to make good ones in this country.

    Lots of their products weren't actually worse than the opposition and some (Maxi, Mini) were better.

    The problem was that the failure to integrate the Morris and Austin businesses (both founded by blokes who ended up despising each other and that adversarial culture endured) meant that the cars were very expensive to make, couldn't be priced competitively and yet still made a loss.

    The brand strategy (Austin = Innovation, Morris = Ford Fighter, Triumph = Sporty, Rover = Exec, Jaguar = end stage alcoholics) was actually quite good and anticipated the portfolio of brands operated by the OEMs such as VAG and Stellantis by decades.
    A good analysis.
    And the strength of the unions, coupled with management not competent enough to make a persuasive case for change, made it impossible to do anything about the problem.

    Meanwhile the Japanese came in with their initially derided offerings.
    And things like Volvo ate Rover's lunch.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,498
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Re. industrial decline:

    There's a brilliant book about shipbuilding, the Rise and Fall of British Shipbuilding, but Anthony Burton. It's been some time since I read it, but the decline in shipbuilding was far more complex than just bad management! or bad government!, or unions! There are so many other factors, like lack of strategic vision, lack of understanding of the customers, and a radically changing marketplace.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Rise-Fall-British-Shipbuilding/dp/0752489690

    Sounds as though a lot of that would apply to the car industry too.
    Much of it seems to have resulted from an unspoken, but deeply ingrained assumption on the part of everyone involved, that they had the market to themselves.

    A kind of wilful blindness, or just deep strupidity.
    An another example, take railway engineering. we had a load of successful loco-making companies before 1948, including the Big Four's own loco works, and a host of private entities such as Vulcan, North British, Stephensons, etc, who had large export markets.

    Yet we now have a tiny rump. Some, like North British, did not take the conversion from steam to diesel/electric well. But the nationalised British Rail entity, BREL, was an absolute basket-case. The ex-LMS, LNER, GWR and Southern works were all supposed to be working together, but they actively hated each other, and each had their own ideas and ways of doing things. Better systems would be actively discouraged if they came from 'the enemy'.

    It needed management to say "this is the way it will be done", and impose that will. It needed investment to get rid of old workshop kit worn out after over-use in WW2, and modern practices imposed. The new standard steam designs were a start, but even then were different from different works, especially at first. And when it came to conversion to diesel and electric, they all went their own ways (which to be fair, the Southern had to do).

    (This also happened after grouping in 1923 as well, with the LMS works at Derby and Crewe having a certain fractious relationship that the management spent ages trying to fix.)

    Government needed to invest in the right way. Management needed to throw out old ideas. Unions and the workers needed to see there would be short-term pain.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,900
    Last night I dreamed that Boris Johnson was round our house. He was still very upset at having to leave number 10. He lay on our floor and cried while I comforted him as best I could, telling him he could at least now spend time with his new wife and their young family. I felt a tremendous wave of sympathy for him. I wonder if any other posters have had this kind of experience?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,914
    I think Labour would be foolish to touch rejoin before stay out is well below 30%. And even then they should expect to walk away from the first round of negotiations with the EU with a firm refusal of the EUs terms, politely letting them know that we'd talk again when they'd reconsidered.

    This is why it's such a mistake for so many rejoiners to present rejoining as something Britain can't survive without. They've then got nowhere to go when the EU makes absurd demands in entry negotiations.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    Regarding Brexit polling I am quite suspicious of it, I suspect it reflects the rapid die off of 2016 Brexit voters. But if you put the question back to voters again and they actually have to contemplate what being in the EU means (giving up sovereignty, having to follow rules that you don't have complete control over, having to accept unlimited immigration) then it would probably be a very close run thing, so high risk for any government to advocate.

    There would need to be a change in circumstances whereby rejoining the EU became massively in our interest - I don't think these circumstances exist yet.

    As seen through your own eyes. Those issues you mention were never a problem for me.

    Regarding the 'rapid die off of 2016 Brexit voters' that surely wouldn't account for 52/48 changing to 38/62.
    Not that it is really relevant but I voted remain and would probably vote for rejoin.
    But I think the question is being perceived more broadly as too much of a rerun of 2016. The danger is that we aren't really thinking through what it would mean in practice to rejoin the EU if it became a serious proposition. What are the benefits - and what would be the annual cost?
    There will be a lot of time for that debate. It would probably take a number of years of 'rejoin' poll leads before the politicians go anywhere near it.
    In the meantime, governments other than the current one will seek closer arrangements with the EU.
    The current government are seeking closer arrangements with the EU following the Windsor accords but it has not had much profile recently.

    I am doing a trial in Aberdeen at the moment. It is of a person who, amongst other, more serious, things had been living here as a "French citizen" but who is in fact Algerian. He has been working in London for about 4 years he says. It once again shows how inept our border service and Home Office are. One of the major upsides of leaving the EU was that we would have some idea of who is here and how many there are we are supposed to house etc. Its not really happened.
    You could this in the EU, in Schengen even. In Finland you have to register with the police who take your biometric data before you can register any residency irrespective of whether you are from the EU or elsewhere. You can't do much without a national ID number. The situation in the UK is largely a consequence of the absence of these systems. Like in many areas of policy the EU was being used as a punchbag. Brexit means that the British - particularly the English - have to confront their own failings, the drama playing out over the small boats and the consequential implosion of the Conservative party is evidence of this.
  • ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, have we covered this:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-66449017

    Not a huge surprise, but although it doesn't include an official resignation statement it surely fires the starting gun for a leadership contest.

    Vaughan Gething will surely be favourite for the same reason Yousaf was in Scotland. And he would be the wrong choice for er, much the same reason.

    To be fair, however, neither of the other likely candidates, Eluned Morgan and Jeremy Miles are obviously superior. The only thing they might have going for them in a grassroots contest is they both speak fluent Welsh and I don't think Vaughan Gething does, although he certainly speaks some. But that won't influence the unions or the Labour hierarchy.

    Drakeford's resignation has been spoken about for quite a time but the problem for his potential successors is they are unknown with virtually no profile
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,256

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Re. industrial decline:

    There's a brilliant book about shipbuilding, the Rise and Fall of British Shipbuilding, but Anthony Burton. It's been some time since I read it, but the decline in shipbuilding was far more complex than just bad management! or bad government!, or unions! There are so many other factors, like lack of strategic vision, lack of understanding of the customers, and a radically changing marketplace.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Rise-Fall-British-Shipbuilding/dp/0752489690

    Sounds as though a lot of that would apply to the car industry too.
    Much of it seems to have resulted from an unspoken, but deeply ingrained assumption on the part of everyone involved, that they had the market to themselves.

    A kind of wilful blindness, or just deep strupidity.
    Legacy of Empire. Too many of our overseas customers were coerced, rather than wowed by the quality or value of our products, making us lazy and complacent and leaving us horribly exposed once those markets were opened up. Plus a hierarchical class-based society that bred a lack of understanding and hence an adversarial relationship between labour and management. If we all went to the same schools and weren't still working through our Imperial hangover we could be a far more successful country.
    That's part of it, certainly.
    The same pattern, indeed its prototype, was present in the cotton industry, which we lost a bit earlier. Other countries without the captive market had to learn how to compete from the start.
  • ydoethur said:

    British Leyland truly was dire.

    I have no idea how it ended up making such uniformly crap cars. It's not as if we didn't have the design and engineering expertise to make good ones in this country.

    Because they prized cheapness over quality, and thought they could get away with it.
    Much like the rest of the country.

    Bigger question is- what about Britain embeds that in our psyche, and what the hell can be done to fix it?

    (Relevant to Brexit, given that the main slogan boiled down to "all the advantages ONLY CHEAPER.)
  • ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, have we covered this:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-66449017

    Not a huge surprise, but although it doesn't include an official resignation statement it surely fires the starting gun for a leadership contest.

    Vaughan Gething will surely be favourite for the same reason Yousaf was in Scotland. And he would be the wrong choice for er, much the same reason.

    To be fair, however, neither of the other likely candidates, Eluned Morgan and Jeremy Miles are obviously superior. The only thing they might have going for them in a grassroots contest is they both speak fluent Welsh and I don't think Vaughan Gething does, although he certainly speaks some. But that won't influence the unions or the Labour hierarchy.

    I am going in to a mourning phase that will outdo Queen Victoria.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    I think Labour would be foolish to touch rejoin before stay out is well below 30%. And even then they should expect to walk away from the first round of negotiations with the EU with a firm refusal of the EUs terms, politely letting them know that we'd talk again when they'd reconsidered.

    This is why it's such a mistake for so many rejoiners to present rejoining as something Britain can't survive without. They've then got nowhere to go when the EU makes absurd demands in entry negotiations.

    It’ll be the Tories who advocate it, once they accept the need to reinvent themselves. Cf the Section 28 to gay marriage journey.
  • Harry Kane's signature of the Bayern contract this morning must be a devastating blow to Spurs fans but why was he allowed to get to the last year of his contract by them ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    edited August 2023
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Password, shades of the Wars of the Roses. Currently re-reading a book on that, with Henry VI giving away a lot to the French and not necessarily winning fans at home. Reminiscent also of King John.

    Edited extra bit: not to mention the factionalism of the Council with bickering relatives of the king created a lot of infighting. As others have said here, many of the problems we face and potential solutions we possess are entirely independent of the EU or membership thereof, yet are used by either sides fanatics as proof we need to be outside/inside the EU.

    As Kongming wrote, one of the avenues of order is to assess yourself first and then assess others. But it's easier to blame the evil EU/Leave voters than to come up with a solution and implement it.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    edited August 2023

    Harry Kane's signature of the Bayern contract this morning must be a devastating blow to Spurs fans but why was he allowed to get to the last year of his contract by them ?

    Come off it. He should have left years ago. Levy exploited his good nature.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Btw, the second story on the BBC website is betting firms advertising to fantasy sports leagues.

    No shit, Sherlock.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,215

    Last night I dreamed that Boris Johnson was round our house. He was still very upset at having to leave number 10. He lay on our floor and cried while I comforted him as best I could, telling him he could at least now spend time with his new wife and their young family. I felt a tremendous wave of sympathy for him. I wonder if any other posters have had this kind of experience?

    Something similar but with a different politician. Showing sympathy for them as they complain about how hard their lot is. I wonder if it’s maybe a classic dream type. Don’t recall who but foreign I think: Macron or Merkel or someone alone those lines.
  • Harry Kane's signature of the Bayern contract this morning must be a devastating blow to Spurs fans but why was he allowed to get to the last year of his contract by them ?

    He’s no Paul Pogba.
  • Epic miss by France there.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,240
    Completely OT: I found this report on the decline of the local press fascinating. Too optimistic about the future, though - it focuses on the 5% which is doing good stuff (DC Thomson, Manchester Mill) vs the 95% which is dreck (Newsquest, Reach, National World).

    https://pressgazette.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2023/08/Signsoflocallife-Anewphaseforlocalmedia.pdf
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032

    Harry Kane's signature of the Bayern contract this morning must be a devastating blow to Spurs fans but why was he allowed to get to the last year of his contract by them ?

    What this saga reminded me was that dealing with Levy in particular is a long and deeply unpleasant experience that United went through more than once. I don't think Kane's long term loyalty and respect for his club has been reciprocated in any way. He could so easily have done a Mbappe and run his contract down and left on a free but he has got his club a good fee. He should be going with their thanks.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505

    Last night I dreamed that Boris Johnson was round our house. He was still very upset at having to leave number 10. He lay on our floor and cried while I comforted him as best I could, telling him he could at least now spend time with his new wife and their young family. I felt a tremendous wave of sympathy for him. I wonder if any other posters have had this kind of experience?

    you need help
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,778
    As if Britain hadn't commited enough with centuries of imperialist rape in the sub-continent, the atrocities continue. The Leyland 'Plughole of Despair' still lives on as a brand of Ashok commercial vehicles.



    I haven't seen a new vehicle with a beam front axle and leaf springs for a while. Jeep CJ must have been the last new car you could buy with that configuration.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505

    Good morning

    I believe the current polling on the EU is a result of the unpopularity of this government and the economic strains being experienced by so many

    As others had said, in a better economic climate I believe re-join would diminish and there is at present a lot of nostalgia for something which is of the past

    Nobody can say what the future holds re the EU, not least because of continuing change, but as I am not opposed to freedom of movement re-joining the single market appeals to me without going for full membership

    The EU is not a panacea for all our troubles and who could have predicted a couple of years ago that Germany is now the sick country of Europe, we are also witnessing the rise of the right across Europe, and of course the vey serious migration flows into southern Europe are going to increase dramatically with untold consequences

    I expect Brexit will be a constant theme for some, and even if we did re-join it would be naïve to believe it would go away as an issue, as it has been in our politics for decades

    G , anyone who thinks Germany is worse than UK is barking.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606

    Completely OT: I found this report on the decline of the local press fascinating. Too optimistic about the future, though - it focuses on the 5% which is doing good stuff (DC Thomson, Manchester Mill) vs the 95% which is dreck (Newsquest, Reach, National World).

    https://pressgazette.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2023/08/Signsoflocallife-Anewphaseforlocalmedia.pdf

    Half of these articles are now written by AI
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,246
    I don't see the UK rejoining the EU any time soon. The vote to leave the EU was a vote to make the UK poorer. Most people now realise that, which I think is a political problem as long we don't actually rejoin.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505

    I need a new irony meter

    Nicola Sturgeon cuts a ‘sad, almost reduced’ figure, says Alex Salmond

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nicola-sturgeon-denies-being-tipped-off-about-snp-fraud-arrests-ftvftsj6z

    She is pure raging that he gets invited on telly now and no-one wants to be within a country mile of her. Poetic justice.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,947
    malcolmg said:

    Last night I dreamed that Boris Johnson was round our house. He was still very upset at having to leave number 10. He lay on our floor and cried while I comforted him as best I could, telling him he could at least now spend time with his new wife and their young family. I felt a tremendous wave of sympathy for him. I wonder if any other posters have had this kind of experience?

    you need help
    I wondered whether it was vindictiveness on @OnlyLivingBoy's part rather than sympathy when he told him he could spend more time with his family
  • I suspect UK support for joining an EU army to be sky high as well given Mr Putin and the orange one.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505
    kinabalu said:

    Finished 'Wolf' tonight anyway. A cut above, I thought.

    I gave up on it , thought it was crap.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,144

    I think Labour would be foolish to touch rejoin before stay out is well below 30%. And even then they should expect to walk away from the first round of negotiations with the EU with a firm refusal of the EUs terms, politely letting them know that we'd talk again when they'd reconsidered.

    This is why it's such a mistake for so many rejoiners to present rejoining as something Britain can't survive without. They've then got nowhere to go when the EU makes absurd demands in entry negotiations.

    It’ll be the Tories who advocate it, once they accept the need to reinvent themselves. Cf the Section 28 to gay marriage journey.
    Yes, after 2 terms in the wilderness the Tories will need to detoxify themselves and reinvent themselves as a party of business with something to offer the under 65's. Going back to the pre 2016 position held for a half century of Joining the EU would fit nicely in. A sort of Clause 4 moment showing they were serious.

    Until then Brexit is the albatross around their neck, and a major drag on Tory polling.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,144
    kjh said:

    malcolmg said:

    Last night I dreamed that Boris Johnson was round our house. He was still very upset at having to leave number 10. He lay on our floor and cried while I comforted him as best I could, telling him he could at least now spend time with his new wife and their young family. I felt a tremendous wave of sympathy for him. I wonder if any other posters have had this kind of experience?

    you need help
    I wondered whether it was vindictiveness on @OnlyLivingBoy's part rather than sympathy when he told him he could spend more time with his family
    Which family?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,914

    I suspect UK support for joining an EU army to be sky high as well given Mr Putin and the orange one.

    The French view of this would be to expect the EU (i.e. Germany) to find the French to lead the EU army.

    If it weren't for the MoD being so dysfunctional I'd suggest that would be the correct British approach to an EU army.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505
    kjh said:

    malcolmg said:

    Last night I dreamed that Boris Johnson was round our house. He was still very upset at having to leave number 10. He lay on our floor and cried while I comforted him as best I could, telling him he could at least now spend time with his new wife and their young family. I felt a tremendous wave of sympathy for him. I wonder if any other posters have had this kind of experience?

    you need help
    I wondered whether it was vindictiveness on @OnlyLivingBoy's part rather than sympathy when he told him he could spend more time with his family
    Yes that was nasty to Boris given his predelictions.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,477

    Last night I dreamed that Boris Johnson was round our house. He was still very upset at having to leave number 10. He lay on our floor and cried while I comforted him as best I could, telling him he could at least now spend time with his new wife and their young family. I felt a tremendous wave of sympathy for him. I wonder if any other posters have had this kind of experience?

    No. I don't even know where you live.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    malcolmg said:

    Last night I dreamed that Boris Johnson was round our house. He was still very upset at having to leave number 10. He lay on our floor and cried while I comforted him as best I could, telling him he could at least now spend time with his new wife and their young family. I felt a tremendous wave of sympathy for him. I wonder if any other posters have had this kind of experience?

    you need help
    I wondered whether it was vindictiveness on @OnlyLivingBoy's part rather than sympathy when he told him he could spend more time with his family
    Which family?
    Tactless and disrespectful not to use they/them for Johnson's families.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,718
    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    malcolmg said:

    Last night I dreamed that Boris Johnson was round our house. He was still very upset at having to leave number 10. He lay on our floor and cried while I comforted him as best I could, telling him he could at least now spend time with his new wife and their young family. I felt a tremendous wave of sympathy for him. I wonder if any other posters have had this kind of experience?

    you need help
    I wondered whether it was vindictiveness on @OnlyLivingBoy's part rather than sympathy when he told him he could spend more time with his family
    Which family?
    I think it’s the youngest three who need wise, paternal guidance now……

    Oh, I see what you mean!

    And good morning everyone!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,498

    Last night I dreamed that Boris Johnson was round our house. He was still very upset at having to leave number 10. He lay on our floor and cried while I comforted him as best I could, telling him he could at least now spend time with his new wife and their young family. I felt a tremendous wave of sympathy for him. I wonder if any other posters have had this kind of experience?

    A few weeks back I had a dream where a man was drowning after falling into a drain during a flood. Only his head was visible. Johnson comes along, smiles for the cameras, lies down to grab the man. Then the road collapses beneath him and all that can be seen is the top of his hair bobbing at the water's surface.

    A rather *odd* dream, to say the least.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Foxy said:

    I think Labour would be foolish to touch rejoin before stay out is well below 30%. And even then they should expect to walk away from the first round of negotiations with the EU with a firm refusal of the EUs terms, politely letting them know that we'd talk again when they'd reconsidered.

    This is why it's such a mistake for so many rejoiners to present rejoining as something Britain can't survive without. They've then got nowhere to go when the EU makes absurd demands in entry negotiations.

    It’ll be the Tories who advocate it, once they accept the need to reinvent themselves. Cf the Section 28 to gay marriage journey.
    Yes, after 2 terms in the wilderness the Tories will need to detoxify themselves and reinvent themselves as a party of business with something to offer the under 65's. Going back to the pre 2016 position held for a half century of Joining the EU would fit nicely in. A sort of Clause 4 moment showing they were serious.

    Until then Brexit is the albatross around their neck, and a major drag on Tory polling.
    You’ve now said exactly this, about 5 times on this thread alone. Continuously repeating nonsense does not magically make it true

    The Tories are never going to be the party of Rejoin. It would be far more than “Clause 4” it would be like the SNP abandoning Indy forever. It would shatter the party into pieces and almost certainly extinguish them

  • malcolmg said:

    Good morning

    I believe the current polling on the EU is a result of the unpopularity of this government and the economic strains being experienced by so many

    As others had said, in a better economic climate I believe re-join would diminish and there is at present a lot of nostalgia for something which is of the past

    Nobody can say what the future holds re the EU, not least because of continuing change, but as I am not opposed to freedom of movement re-joining the single market appeals to me without going for full membership

    The EU is not a panacea for all our troubles and who could have predicted a couple of years ago that Germany is now the sick country of Europe, we are also witnessing the rise of the right across Europe, and of course the vey serious migration flows into southern Europe are going to increase dramatically with untold consequences

    I expect Brexit will be a constant theme for some, and even if we did re-join it would be naïve to believe it would go away as an issue, as it has been in our politics for decades

    G , anyone who thinks Germany is worse than UK is barking.
    Good morning Malc

    Seems Germany is having serious problems

    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-economy-weakens-2023/a-66403943
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156
    FF43 said:

    I don't see the UK rejoining the EU any time soon. The vote to leave the EU was a vote to make the UK poorer. Most people now realise that, which I think is a political problem as long we don't actually rejoin.

    That is most unfair, a lot of Brexiteers were quite clear that the economic benefits will only start to kick in after the 700 year adjustment period. It is very harsh to judge Brexit a failure before this has been tested.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,106
    Being a member of the EU is economically beneficial for us. That is an immutable law of Geography that will never change.

    The question then is whether there will ever come a point politically where the urge of voters to kick the shysters that sold them Brexit overcomes the fantasy of 'make Brexit work'
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,106
    Leon said:

    Continuously repeating nonsense does not magically make it true

    We are talking about Brexit.

    It doesn't need to be true if gullible fools vote for it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    malcolmg said:

    Good morning

    I believe the current polling on the EU is a result of the unpopularity of this government and the economic strains being experienced by so many

    As others had said, in a better economic climate I believe re-join would diminish and there is at present a lot of nostalgia for something which is of the past

    Nobody can say what the future holds re the EU, not least because of continuing change, but as I am not opposed to freedom of movement re-joining the single market appeals to me without going for full membership

    The EU is not a panacea for all our troubles and who could have predicted a couple of years ago that Germany is now the sick country of Europe, we are also witnessing the rise of the right across Europe, and of course the vey serious migration flows into southern Europe are going to increase dramatically with untold consequences

    I expect Brexit will be a constant theme for some, and even if we did re-join it would be naïve to believe it would go away as an issue, as it has been in our politics for decades

    G , anyone who thinks Germany is worse than UK is barking.
    No, he’s right. The German economy is in a bad place and arguably on a worse trajectory than the UK’s. However it is starting from a better position - richer, calmer, more bicycling

    Nonetheless it is in a pickle. Putin doesn’t help but the major issue is Germany’s reliance on exports to China


  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855

    Last night I dreamed that Boris Johnson was round our house. He was still very upset at having to leave number 10. He lay on our floor and cried while I comforted him as best I could, telling him he could at least now spend time with his new wife and their young family. I felt a tremendous wave of sympathy for him. I wonder if any other posters have had this kind of experience?

    No, but there's a really important related point. There was polling which showed that something like 60% of UK citizens had dreamt about the proper queen coming to tea. What is the comparable figure for sausage fingers? We need data
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,806
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    I think Labour would be foolish to touch rejoin before stay out is well below 30%. And even then they should expect to walk away from the first round of negotiations with the EU with a firm refusal of the EUs terms, politely letting them know that we'd talk again when they'd reconsidered.

    This is why it's such a mistake for so many rejoiners to present rejoining as something Britain can't survive without. They've then got nowhere to go when the EU makes absurd demands in entry negotiations.

    It’ll be the Tories who advocate it, once they accept the need to reinvent themselves. Cf the Section 28 to gay marriage journey.
    Yes, after 2 terms in the wilderness the Tories will need to detoxify themselves and reinvent themselves as a party of business with something to offer the under 65's. Going back to the pre 2016 position held for a half century of Joining the EU would fit nicely in. A sort of Clause 4 moment showing they were serious.

    Until then Brexit is the albatross around their neck, and a major drag on Tory polling.
    You’ve now said exactly this, about 5 times on this thread alone. Continuously repeating nonsense does not magically make it true

    The Tories are never going to be the party of Rejoin. It would be far more than “Clause 4” it would be like the SNP abandoning Indy forever. It would shatter the party into pieces and almost certainly extinguish them
    You've repeated this exaggeration at least 7,000 times now. This morning.

    PS: Continually, not continuously.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,228
    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, have we covered this:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-66449017

    Not a huge surprise, but although it doesn't include an official resignation statement it surely fires the starting gun for a leadership contest.

    Vaughan Gething will surely be favourite for the same reason Yousaf was in Scotland. And he would be the wrong choice for er, much the same reason.

    To be fair, however, neither of the other likely candidates, Eluned Morgan and Jeremy Miles are obviously superior. The only thing they might have going for them in a grassroots contest is they both speak fluent Welsh and I don't think Vaughan Gething does, although he certainly speaks some. But that won't influence the unions or the Labour hierarchy.

    So The Drake is ducking out of politics.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,144

    malcolmg said:

    Good morning

    I believe the current polling on the EU is a result of the unpopularity of this government and the economic strains being experienced by so many

    As others had said, in a better economic climate I believe re-join would diminish and there is at present a lot of nostalgia for something which is of the past

    Nobody can say what the future holds re the EU, not least because of continuing change, but as I am not opposed to freedom of movement re-joining the single market appeals to me without going for full membership

    The EU is not a panacea for all our troubles and who could have predicted a couple of years ago that Germany is now the sick country of Europe, we are also witnessing the rise of the right across Europe, and of course the vey serious migration flows into southern Europe are going to increase dramatically with untold consequences

    I expect Brexit will be a constant theme for some, and even if we did re-join it would be naïve to believe it would go away as an issue, as it has been in our politics for decades

    G , anyone who thinks Germany is worse than UK is barking.
    Good morning Malc

    Seems Germany is having serious problems

    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-economy-weakens-2023/a-66403943
    D
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    I think Labour would be foolish to touch rejoin before stay out is well below 30%. And even then they should expect to walk away from the first round of negotiations with the EU with a firm refusal of the EUs terms, politely letting them know that we'd talk again when they'd reconsidered.

    This is why it's such a mistake for so many rejoiners to present rejoining as something Britain can't survive without. They've then got nowhere to go when the EU makes absurd demands in entry negotiations.

    It’ll be the Tories who advocate it, once they accept the need to reinvent themselves. Cf the Section 28 to gay marriage journey.
    Yes, after 2 terms in the wilderness the Tories will need to detoxify themselves and reinvent themselves as a party of business with something to offer the under 65's. Going back to the pre 2016 position held for a half century of Joining the EU would fit nicely in. A sort of Clause 4 moment showing they were serious.

    Until then Brexit is the albatross around their neck, and a major drag on Tory polling.
    You’ve now said exactly this, about 5 times on this thread alone. Continuously repeating nonsense does not magically make it true

    The Tories are never going to be the party of Rejoin. It would be far more than “Clause 4” it would be like the SNP abandoning Indy forever. It would shatter the party into pieces and almost certainly extinguish them

    No, for the half century to 2016 it was the Tories that were the pro-EU party, that joined under Heath, expanded under Thatcher, brought in the Single Market, and supported EU expansion to the East. The aberration is the recent Xenophobia.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    On Brexit, yesterday I saw this interesting FT graphic on biz investment in the UK. The impact of Brexit is stark, here (the pandemic even more so). After climbing steadily, investment suddenly flatlines after the Leave vote, stays flat, until it plunges during Covid

    But in the last year or two it has speedily recovered and is now above its position in 2019

    At some point the cruel costs of Brexit (and they exist, like the pains of giving birth) will begin to fade. Wounds become scars - or stretch marks. The country will adjust and grow again - in a new direction. That is the law of life. Identifying the pivotal moment is not easy however. It may be happening now in plain sight. Or not


  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    I think Labour would be foolish to touch rejoin before stay out is well below 30%. And even then they should expect to walk away from the first round of negotiations with the EU with a firm refusal of the EUs terms, politely letting them know that we'd talk again when they'd reconsidered.

    This is why it's such a mistake for so many rejoiners to present rejoining as something Britain can't survive without. They've then got nowhere to go when the EU makes absurd demands in entry negotiations.

    It’ll be the Tories who advocate it, once they accept the need to reinvent themselves. Cf the Section 28 to gay marriage journey.
    Yes, after 2 terms in the wilderness the Tories will need to detoxify themselves and reinvent themselves as a party of business with something to offer the under 65's. Going back to the pre 2016 position held for a half century of Joining the EU would fit nicely in. A sort of Clause 4 moment showing they were serious.

    Until then Brexit is the albatross around their neck, and a major drag on Tory polling.
    You’ve now said exactly this, about 5 times on this thread alone. Continuously repeating nonsense does not magically make it true

    The Tories are never going to be the party of Rejoin. It would be far more than “Clause 4” it would be like the SNP abandoning Indy forever. It would shatter the party into pieces and almost certainly extinguish them

    No internals available for header poll but

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/07/18/britons-would-vote-rejoin-eu

    Tory voters in 2019 are now only 66% Leave. Tories were also the party of fox hunting at one stage, now they are neutral or anti. They will pivot on eu the moment polling tells them to.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,228
    TimS said:

    Last night I dreamed that Boris Johnson was round our house. He was still very upset at having to leave number 10. He lay on our floor and cried while I comforted him as best I could, telling him he could at least now spend time with his new wife and their young family. I felt a tremendous wave of sympathy for him. I wonder if any other posters have had this kind of experience?

    Something similar but with a different politician. Showing sympathy for them as they complain about how hard their lot is. I wonder if it’s maybe a classic dream type. Don’t recall who but foreign I think: Macron or Merkel or someone alone those lines.
    I once had a dream involving Angela Rayner, but the narrative was somewhat different.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,144
    edited August 2023
    Miklosvar said:

    Last night I dreamed that Boris Johnson was round our house. He was still very upset at having to leave number 10. He lay on our floor and cried while I comforted him as best I could, telling him he could at least now spend time with his new wife and their young family. I felt a tremendous wave of sympathy for him. I wonder if any other posters have had this kind of experience?

    No, but there's a really important related point. There was polling which showed that something like 60% of UK citizens had dreamt about the proper queen coming to tea. What is the comparable figure for sausage fingers? We need data
    Dream interpretation is as simple and straightforward, and nearly as accurate as reading tea leaves, so here goes.

    Dreams are wish-fulfilment, but also deeply symbolic. Dreaming of the Queen visiting is a dream for status, as are dreams about Prime Ministers needing help. The symbolic nature means that it is the most representative rather than the most contemporaneous figure that features.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    Good morning

    I believe the current polling on the EU is a result of the unpopularity of this government and the economic strains being experienced by so many

    As others had said, in a better economic climate I believe re-join would diminish and there is at present a lot of nostalgia for something which is of the past

    Nobody can say what the future holds re the EU, not least because of continuing change, but as I am not opposed to freedom of movement re-joining the single market appeals to me without going for full membership

    The EU is not a panacea for all our troubles and who could have predicted a couple of years ago that Germany is now the sick country of Europe, we are also witnessing the rise of the right across Europe, and of course the vey serious migration flows into southern Europe are going to increase dramatically with untold consequences

    I expect Brexit will be a constant theme for some, and even if we did re-join it would be naïve to believe it would go away as an issue, as it has been in our politics for decades

    G , anyone who thinks Germany is worse than UK is barking.
    Good morning Malc

    Seems Germany is having serious problems

    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-economy-weakens-2023/a-66403943
    D
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    I think Labour would be foolish to touch rejoin before stay out is well below 30%. And even then they should expect to walk away from the first round of negotiations with the EU with a firm refusal of the EUs terms, politely letting them know that we'd talk again when they'd reconsidered.

    This is why it's such a mistake for so many rejoiners to present rejoining as something Britain can't survive without. They've then got nowhere to go when the EU makes absurd demands in entry negotiations.

    It’ll be the Tories who advocate it, once they accept the need to reinvent themselves. Cf the Section 28 to gay marriage journey.
    Yes, after 2 terms in the wilderness the Tories will need to detoxify themselves and reinvent themselves as a party of business with something to offer the under 65's. Going back to the pre 2016 position held for a half century of Joining the EU would fit nicely in. A sort of Clause 4 moment showing they were serious.

    Until then Brexit is the albatross around their neck, and a major drag on Tory polling.
    You’ve now said exactly this, about 5 times on this thread alone. Continuously repeating nonsense does not magically make it true

    The Tories are never going to be the party of Rejoin. It would be far more than “Clause 4” it would be like the SNP abandoning Indy forever. It would shatter the party into pieces and almost certainly extinguish them

    No, for the half century to 2016 it was the Tories that were the pro-EU party, that joined under Heath, expanded under Thatcher, brought in the Single Market, and supported EU expansion to the East. The aberration is the recent Xenophobia.
    In some ways yes, some ways no. But the plain fact is, for the Tories to become the party of Rejoin you’d have to miraculously replace 90% of their members, 95% of their activists and about 75% of their MPs, and their overriding philosophical position of the last decade, and also get the entire party to accept Britain should once again subordinate itself to Brussels, after a tragic mistake which they passionately supported

    I mean, when you look at it like that, it’s just not
    gonna happen, is it?

    If Rejoin ever becomes a major idea in UK politics (something I obviously and gravely doubt) it will come from Labour (with the LDs and SNP as a supporting cast)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,144

    TimS said:

    Last night I dreamed that Boris Johnson was round our house. He was still very upset at having to leave number 10. He lay on our floor and cried while I comforted him as best I could, telling him he could at least now spend time with his new wife and their young family. I felt a tremendous wave of sympathy for him. I wonder if any other posters have had this kind of experience?

    Something similar but with a different politician. Showing sympathy for them as they complain about how hard their lot is. I wonder if it’s maybe a classic dream type. Don’t recall who but foreign I think: Macron or Merkel or someone alone those lines.
    I once had a dream involving Angela Rayner, but the narrative was somewhat different.
    I know that one! It is wish fulfilment again.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,106
    Foxy said:

    for the half century to 2016 it was the Tories that were the pro-EU party, that joined under Heath, expanded under Thatcher, brought in the Single Market, and supported EU expansion to the East. The aberration is the recent Xenophobia.

    Interesting question this morning.

    If you are fan of the Cruella and co 'prison hulk' immigration scheme, would you then vote against them for fucking it up so spectacularly?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,106
    Leon said:

    for the Tories to become the party of Rejoin you’d have to miraculously replace 90% of their members, 95% of their activists and about 75% of their MPs

    The members die out, the activists are sitting on their hands and voters will do the rest
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,144

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, have we covered this:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-66449017

    Not a huge surprise, but although it doesn't include an official resignation statement it surely fires the starting gun for a leadership contest.

    Vaughan Gething will surely be favourite for the same reason Yousaf was in Scotland. And he would be the wrong choice for er, much the same reason.

    To be fair, however, neither of the other likely candidates, Eluned Morgan and Jeremy Miles are obviously superior. The only thing they might have going for them in a grassroots contest is they both speak fluent Welsh and I don't think Vaughan Gething does, although he certainly speaks some. But that won't influence the unions or the Labour hierarchy.

    So The Drake is ducking out of politics.
    A poultry effort at a pun.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,246

    I think Labour would be foolish to touch rejoin before stay out is well below 30%. And even then they should expect to walk away from the first round of negotiations with the EU with a firm refusal of the EUs terms, politely letting them know that we'd talk again when they'd reconsidered.

    This is why it's such a mistake for so many rejoiners to present rejoining as something Britain can't survive without. They've then got nowhere to go when the EU makes absurd demands in entry negotiations.

    Which is why Brexit will be a perennial political problem. The "solution" is to overturn it, but it won't be overturned.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,106
    The Tory pitch for rejoin will be "Britain must once again take its place at the table"
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,914
    edited August 2023
    Roger said:

    I posted this last night. It's entitled 'Clacton. Living in a post Brexit society'. A brilliant mini documentary (a German crew i think) and it explains why the result was as it was and why the referendum was almost certain to produce the result it did

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUej2pWLUUc

    That is grim Roger.

    One can understand why Johnson's snake oil might have gone down so smoothly.

    British Leyland truly was dire.

    I have no idea how it ended up making such uniformly crap cars. It's not as if we didn't have the design and engineering expertise to make good ones in this country.

    The truth is BL wasn't, or rather it didn't need to be as bad as it turned out.

    The Mini and the 1100/1300 despite their 1952 derived engines were still world beaters in 1968 when British Leyland was formed as the 4th largest automotive group in the world. Pininfarina had been tasked with reworking both the 1100 and the 1800, The results were eye-catching designs that looked like the later Citroen GS and XM models. Issigonis had reworked the Mini into a modern looking hatchback in 1968. Lord Stokes, who was a Triumph man wanted to promote the Triumph product over the BMC offering so they all got cancelled.

    The Marina was a decent idea, fill the fleet market with a simple rwd offering to compete with Britain's second best selling car of the 1960s, the Cortina (the 1100/1300 was the best seller up to and including 1970). It looked modern, although with cart springs at the rear handled like a tractor. The 2 door "coupe" was ridiculous borrowing the 4 door's front doors without extending them for rear seat access, making it look odd. But it should just have been a stop gap until something better came along. Personally I would have persevered with the Austin Apache/Victoria, an attractive three box version of the1100 that was sold in South Africa and Spain.

    The Allegro was a sleek wedge design by Harris Mann, which was squashed in order to fit the Maxi engine under the bonnet. Instead of being an aerodynamic wedge it looked like a dumpy pudding. Neither did it sport a hatchback, a problem that also befell the "wedge" Princess. The Allegro which was awful to drive and inferior to it's predecessor which it replaced. The Allegro of course became the poster boy for all that was wrong with BL.

    The Range Rover was a world beater, and Rover SD1 was well engineered. The Metro looked the part, although still with the Mini's ancient and tired A series engine.

    And of course they were all made by Derek Robinson using paper and string

    The venture was a failure, but the cars weren't "unniformly crap", and it could have been so much different.

    Remember Renault needed bailing out by the French Government too at the same time, and that led to a happier ending.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Rejoining may be a credible possibility, but unless it's on identical terms to before then there will be some very easy attack lines. No rebate hikes the cost even more. The single currency destroys an independent monetary policy.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,144
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    for the Tories to become the party of Rejoin you’d have to miraculously replace 90% of their members, 95% of their activists and about 75% of their MPs

    The members die out, the activists are sitting on their hands and voters will do the rest
    And just as the MPs who supported Remain switched sides (Ms Truss for example) they can switch back. In politics, the reverse ferret is a prized manoeuvre.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,228
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    Good morning

    I believe the current polling on the EU is a result of the unpopularity of this government and the economic strains being experienced by so many

    As others had said, in a better economic climate I believe re-join would diminish and there is at present a lot of nostalgia for something which is of the past

    Nobody can say what the future holds re the EU, not least because of continuing change, but as I am not opposed to freedom of movement re-joining the single market appeals to me without going for full membership

    The EU is not a panacea for all our troubles and who could have predicted a couple of years ago that Germany is now the sick country of Europe, we are also witnessing the rise of the right across Europe, and of course the vey serious migration flows into southern Europe are going to increase dramatically with untold consequences

    I expect Brexit will be a constant theme for some, and even if we did re-join it would be naïve to believe it would go away as an issue, as it has been in our politics for decades

    G , anyone who thinks Germany is worse than UK is barking.
    Good morning Malc

    Seems Germany is having serious problems

    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-economy-weakens-2023/a-66403943
    D
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    I think Labour would be foolish to touch rejoin before stay out is well below 30%. And even then they should expect to walk away from the first round of negotiations with the EU with a firm refusal of the EUs terms, politely letting them know that we'd talk again when they'd reconsidered.

    This is why it's such a mistake for so many rejoiners to present rejoining as something Britain can't survive without. They've then got nowhere to go when the EU makes absurd demands in entry negotiations.

    It’ll be the Tories who advocate it, once they accept the need to reinvent themselves. Cf the Section 28 to gay marriage journey.
    Yes, after 2 terms in the wilderness the Tories will need to detoxify themselves and reinvent themselves as a party of business with something to offer the under 65's. Going back to the pre 2016 position held for a half century of Joining the EU would fit nicely in. A sort of Clause 4 moment showing they were serious.

    Until then Brexit is the albatross around their neck, and a major drag on Tory polling.
    You’ve now said exactly this, about 5 times on this thread alone. Continuously repeating nonsense does not magically make it true

    The Tories are never going to be the party of Rejoin. It would be far more than “Clause 4” it would be like the SNP abandoning Indy forever. It would shatter the party into pieces and almost certainly extinguish them

    No, for the half century to 2016 it was the Tories that were the pro-EU party, that joined under Heath, expanded under Thatcher, brought in the Single Market, and supported EU expansion to the East. The aberration is the recent Xenophobia.
    In some ways yes, some ways no. But the plain fact is, for the Tories to become the party of Rejoin you’d have to miraculously replace 90% of their members, 95% of their activists and about 75% of their MPs, and their overriding philosophical position of the last decade, and also get the entire party to accept Britain should once again subordinate itself to Brussels, after a tragic mistake which they passionately supported

    I mean, when you look at it like that, it’s just not
    gonna happen, is it?

    If Rejoin ever becomes a major idea in UK politics (something I obviously and gravely doubt) it will come from Labour (with the LDs and SNP as a supporting cast)
    It was a Tory Prime Minister who spearheaded the campaign for Remain not so long ago. And going back a bit further, Labour was very anti the Common Market.

    Parties change.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505

    malcolmg said:

    Good morning

    I believe the current polling on the EU is a result of the unpopularity of this government and the economic strains being experienced by so many

    As others had said, in a better economic climate I believe re-join would diminish and there is at present a lot of nostalgia for something which is of the past

    Nobody can say what the future holds re the EU, not least because of continuing change, but as I am not opposed to freedom of movement re-joining the single market appeals to me without going for full membership

    The EU is not a panacea for all our troubles and who could have predicted a couple of years ago that Germany is now the sick country of Europe, we are also witnessing the rise of the right across Europe, and of course the vey serious migration flows into southern Europe are going to increase dramatically with untold consequences

    I expect Brexit will be a constant theme for some, and even if we did re-join it would be naïve to believe it would go away as an issue, as it has been in our politics for decades

    G , anyone who thinks Germany is worse than UK is barking.
    Good morning Malc

    Seems Germany is having serious problems

    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-economy-weakens-2023/a-66403943
    G, I apreciate they may have a few issues but they are still miles and miles better than UK position.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    Last night I dreamed that Boris Johnson was round our house. He was still very upset at having to leave number 10. He lay on our floor and cried while I comforted him as best I could, telling him he could at least now spend time with his new wife and their young family. I felt a tremendous wave of sympathy for him. I wonder if any other posters have had this kind of experience?

    Something similar but with a different politician. Showing sympathy for them as they complain about how hard their lot is. I wonder if it’s maybe a classic dream type. Don’t recall who but foreign I think: Macron or Merkel or someone alone those lines.
    I once had a dream involving Angela Rayner, but the narrative was somewhat different.
    I know that one! It is wish fulfilment again.
    Freud thought that all dreams are wish fulfilment


    “Freud's most well-known theory, wish fulfillment, is the idea that when wishes can't or won't be fulfilled in our waking lives, they are carried out in dreams. Even anxious or punishing dreams have their roots in wish fulfillment, according to Freud.”

    It’s a pleasing idea. So simple. I’m not sure it’s true

    I’ve had dreams that have changed my life, steering me in a new and better direction. They weren’t wishes. They were advice from my subconscious

    I’ve also had nightmares that have scared the crap out of me, for no apparent reason other than the basic dread that underlies existence

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Parody Rishi Sunak
    @Parody_PM
    ·
    13m
    "I should just point out that paying £1.6bn for a barge with Legionella was a one-off"
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393
    edited August 2023
    Ghedebrav said:

    On topic, I was a big advocate for staying in the EU.

    I regret that we left but I regret more how the vote tore the country apart. The last thing I want is a rerun of such a national trauma.

    On the other hand, if a consensus continues to develop, the hardline leavers will be in a weak position anyway, and, as they themselves put it (though it's not an expression I like and use here only advisedly), they would have to "suck it up"). And even they might feel that if immigration is still high, and pay remains low, they might as well have the economic and security advantages in a world where food security is daily going higher up the agenda.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    for the Tories to become the party of Rejoin you’d have to miraculously replace 90% of their members, 95% of their activists and about 75% of their MPs

    The members die out, the activists are sitting on their hands and voters will do the rest
    You are going to spend the rest of your life sunk in this myopic bitterness, aren’t you? It’s a bit of a waste. But knock yourself out
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,778

    I suspect UK support for joining an EU army to be sky high as well given Mr Putin and the orange one.

    The French view of this would be to expect the EU (i.e. Germany) to find the French to lead the EU army.

    If it weren't for the MoD being so dysfunctional I'd suggest that would be the correct British approach to an EU army.
    The concept of PESCO is that each country leads in areas according to their strengths and preferences. So Germany does medical, the loudmouth Baltics do cyber, etc. The UK is nobody's idea of a pre-eminent military in the land doman but they could quite rightly assert leadership in naval areas.

    Let's hope Poland don't get catering.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Good morning

    I believe the current polling on the EU is a result of the unpopularity of this government and the economic strains being experienced by so many

    As others had said, in a better economic climate I believe re-join would diminish and there is at present a lot of nostalgia for something which is of the past

    Nobody can say what the future holds re the EU, not least because of continuing change, but as I am not opposed to freedom of movement re-joining the single market appeals to me without going for full membership

    The EU is not a panacea for all our troubles and who could have predicted a couple of years ago that Germany is now the sick country of Europe, we are also witnessing the rise of the right across Europe, and of course the vey serious migration flows into southern Europe are going to increase dramatically with untold consequences

    I expect Brexit will be a constant theme for some, and even if we did re-join it would be naïve to believe it would go away as an issue, as it has been in our politics for decades

    G , anyone who thinks Germany is worse than UK is barking.
    Good morning Malc

    Seems Germany is having serious problems

    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-economy-weakens-2023/a-66403943
    G, I apreciate they may have a few issues but they are still miles and miles better than UK position.
    Jumping from an even higher cliff does not produce a better outcome at the end
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393

    Parody Rishi Sunak
    @Parody_PM
    ·
    13m
    "I should just point out that paying £1.6bn for a barge with Legionella was a one-off"

    1.6bn?!

    Hadn't realised. Checked. Actually not for one barge, but even so it's a lot for three boats (so far announced) for 2 years, when the boats are only hired.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/barge-australia-asylum-contract-travel-b2354578.html
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    edited August 2023

    Rejoining may be a credible possibility, but unless it's on identical terms to before then there will be some very easy attack lines. No rebate hikes the cost even more. The single currency destroys an independent monetary policy.

    We hold all the cards, it’ll be the easiest deal in history.

    There’s only sunlit uplands to rejoining.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,144

    Rejoining may be a credible possibility, but unless it's on identical terms to before then there will be some very easy attack lines. No rebate hikes the cost even more. The single currency destroys an independent monetary policy.

    I think the EU would be open to negotiating on terms of re-entry, but probably not very different to before. Of course we cannot know for sure until we make an application.

    The LD approach of gradualism, joining first the Single Market and many institutions such as Erasmus etc is probably the best policy at the moment.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    Good morning

    I believe the current polling on the EU is a result of the unpopularity of this government and the economic strains being experienced by so many

    As others had said, in a better economic climate I believe re-join would diminish and there is at present a lot of nostalgia for something which is of the past

    Nobody can say what the future holds re the EU, not least because of continuing change, but as I am not opposed to freedom of movement re-joining the single market appeals to me without going for full membership

    The EU is not a panacea for all our troubles and who could have predicted a couple of years ago that Germany is now the sick country of Europe, we are also witnessing the rise of the right across Europe, and of course the vey serious migration flows into southern Europe are going to increase dramatically with untold consequences

    I expect Brexit will be a constant theme for some, and even if we did re-join it would be naïve to believe it would go away as an issue, as it has been in our politics for decades

    G , anyone who thinks Germany is worse than UK is barking.
    Good morning Malc

    Seems Germany is having serious problems

    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-economy-weakens-2023/a-66403943
    D
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    I think Labour would be foolish to touch rejoin before stay out is well below 30%. And even then they should expect to walk away from the first round of negotiations with the EU with a firm refusal of the EUs terms, politely letting them know that we'd talk again when they'd reconsidered.

    This is why it's such a mistake for so many rejoiners to present rejoining as something Britain can't survive without. They've then got nowhere to go when the EU makes absurd demands in entry negotiations.

    It’ll be the Tories who advocate it, once they accept the need to reinvent themselves. Cf the Section 28 to gay marriage journey.
    Yes, after 2 terms in the wilderness the Tories will need to detoxify themselves and reinvent themselves as a party of business with something to offer the under 65's. Going back to the pre 2016 position held for a half century of Joining the EU would fit nicely in. A sort of Clause 4 moment showing they were serious.

    Until then Brexit is the albatross around their neck, and a major drag on Tory polling.
    You’ve now said exactly this, about 5 times on this thread alone. Continuously repeating nonsense does not magically make it true

    The Tories are never going to be the party of Rejoin. It would be far more than “Clause 4” it would be like the SNP abandoning Indy forever. It would shatter the party into pieces and almost certainly extinguish them

    No, for the half century to 2016 it was the Tories that were the pro-EU party, that joined under Heath, expanded under Thatcher, brought in the Single Market, and supported EU expansion to the East. The aberration is the recent Xenophobia.
    In some ways yes, some ways no. But the plain fact is, for the Tories to become the party of Rejoin you’d have to miraculously replace 90% of their members, 95% of their activists and about 75% of their MPs, and their overriding philosophical position of the last decade, and also get the entire party to accept Britain should once again subordinate itself to Brussels, after a tragic mistake which they passionately supported

    I mean, when you look at it like that, it’s just not
    gonna happen, is it?

    If Rejoin ever becomes a major idea in UK politics (something I obviously and gravely doubt) it will come from Labour (with the LDs and SNP as a supporting cast)
    Miraculously replace 75% of their MPs and 90% of their members - no miracle about it, 18 months work for the electorate and a decade for the Grim Reaper. As noted only 66% of Tory ge 2019 voters are still Leave anyway. This can all be done neatly and with room to spare in the now traditional 12 odd wilderness years.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,778
    Miklosvar said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    I think Labour would be foolish to touch rejoin before stay out is well below 30%. And even then they should expect to walk away from the first round of negotiations with the EU with a firm refusal of the EUs terms, politely letting them know that we'd talk again when they'd reconsidered.

    This is why it's such a mistake for so many rejoiners to present rejoining as something Britain can't survive without. They've then got nowhere to go when the EU makes absurd demands in entry negotiations.

    It’ll be the Tories who advocate it, once they accept the need to reinvent themselves. Cf the Section 28 to gay marriage journey.
    Yes, after 2 terms in the wilderness the Tories will need to detoxify themselves and reinvent themselves as a party of business with something to offer the under 65's. Going back to the pre 2016 position held for a half century of Joining the EU would fit nicely in. A sort of Clause 4 moment showing they were serious.

    Until then Brexit is the albatross around their neck, and a major drag on Tory polling.
    You’ve now said exactly this, about 5 times on this thread alone. Continuously repeating nonsense does not magically make it true

    The Tories are never going to be the party of Rejoin. It would be far more than “Clause 4” it would be like the SNP abandoning Indy forever. It would shatter the party into pieces and almost certainly extinguish them

    No internals available for header poll but

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/07/18/britons-would-vote-rejoin-eu

    Tory voters in 2019 are now only 66% Leave. Tories were also the party of fox hunting at one stage, now they are neutral or anti. They will pivot on eu the moment polling tells them to.
    Your average tory member has all the qualities of a dog except loyalty but... enough of them will toe the line when the party leadership, of economic and political necessity, switches to rejoin.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, have we covered this:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-66449017

    Not a huge surprise, but although it doesn't include an official resignation statement it surely fires the starting gun for a leadership contest.

    Vaughan Gething will surely be favourite for the same reason Yousaf was in Scotland. And he would be the wrong choice for er, much the same reason.

    To be fair, however, neither of the other likely candidates, Eluned Morgan and Jeremy Miles are obviously superior. The only thing they might have going for them in a grassroots contest is they both speak fluent Welsh and I don't think Vaughan Gething does, although he certainly speaks some. But that won't influence the unions or the Labour hierarchy.

    So The Drake is ducking out of politics.
    A poultry effort at a pun.
    But it will have to do, unteal the real thing comes along
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,477
    edited August 2023
    If Brexit had been a success, I don't think people, on both sides of the debate, would be wittering on about it quite so much more than seven years after the referendum.
    Despite that, I suspect that the chances of us rejoining fully within the next ten years are precisely zero.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    Good morning

    I believe the current polling on the EU is a result of the unpopularity of this government and the economic strains being experienced by so many

    As others had said, in a better economic climate I believe re-join would diminish and there is at present a lot of nostalgia for something which is of the past

    Nobody can say what the future holds re the EU, not least because of continuing change, but as I am not opposed to freedom of movement re-joining the single market appeals to me without going for full membership

    The EU is not a panacea for all our troubles and who could have predicted a couple of years ago that Germany is now the sick country of Europe, we are also witnessing the rise of the right across Europe, and of course the vey serious migration flows into southern Europe are going to increase dramatically with untold consequences

    I expect Brexit will be a constant theme for some, and even if we did re-join it would be naïve to believe it would go away as an issue, as it has been in our politics for decades

    G , anyone who thinks Germany is worse than UK is barking.
    Good morning Malc

    Seems Germany is having serious problems

    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-economy-weakens-2023/a-66403943
    D
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    I think Labour would be foolish to touch rejoin before stay out is well below 30%. And even then they should expect to walk away from the first round of negotiations with the EU with a firm refusal of the EUs terms, politely letting them know that we'd talk again when they'd reconsidered.

    This is why it's such a mistake for so many rejoiners to present rejoining as something Britain can't survive without. They've then got nowhere to go when the EU makes absurd demands in entry negotiations.

    It’ll be the Tories who advocate it, once they accept the need to reinvent themselves. Cf the Section 28 to gay marriage journey.
    Yes, after 2 terms in the wilderness the Tories will need to detoxify themselves and reinvent themselves as a party of business with something to offer the under 65's. Going back to the pre 2016 position held for a half century of Joining the EU would fit nicely in. A sort of Clause 4 moment showing they were serious.

    Until then Brexit is the albatross around their neck, and a major drag on Tory polling.
    You’ve now said exactly this, about 5 times on this thread alone. Continuously repeating nonsense does not magically make it true

    The Tories are never going to be the party of Rejoin. It would be far more than “Clause 4” it would be like the SNP abandoning Indy forever. It would shatter the party into pieces and almost certainly extinguish them

    No, for the half century to 2016 it was the Tories that were the pro-EU party, that joined under Heath, expanded under Thatcher, brought in the Single Market, and supported EU expansion to the East. The aberration is the recent Xenophobia.
    In some ways yes, some ways no. But the plain fact is, for the Tories to become the party of Rejoin you’d have to miraculously replace 90% of their members, 95% of their activists and about 75% of their MPs, and their overriding philosophical position of the last decade, and also get the entire party to accept Britain should once again subordinate itself to Brussels, after a tragic mistake which they passionately supported

    I mean, when you look at it like that, it’s just not
    gonna happen, is it?

    If Rejoin ever becomes a major idea in UK politics (something I obviously and gravely doubt) it will come from Labour (with the LDs and SNP as a supporting cast)
    It was a Tory Prime Minister who spearheaded the campaign for Remain not so long ago. And going back a bit further, Labour was very anti the Common Market.

    Parties change.
    More support for your observation is that the SNP too also evolved its views fairly radically from the 1970s onwards.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,477
    Dura_Ace said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    I think Labour would be foolish to touch rejoin before stay out is well below 30%. And even then they should expect to walk away from the first round of negotiations with the EU with a firm refusal of the EUs terms, politely letting them know that we'd talk again when they'd reconsidered.

    This is why it's such a mistake for so many rejoiners to present rejoining as something Britain can't survive without. They've then got nowhere to go when the EU makes absurd demands in entry negotiations.

    It’ll be the Tories who advocate it, once they accept the need to reinvent themselves. Cf the Section 28 to gay marriage journey.
    Yes, after 2 terms in the wilderness the Tories will need to detoxify themselves and reinvent themselves as a party of business with something to offer the under 65's. Going back to the pre 2016 position held for a half century of Joining the EU would fit nicely in. A sort of Clause 4 moment showing they were serious.

    Until then Brexit is the albatross around their neck, and a major drag on Tory polling.
    You’ve now said exactly this, about 5 times on this thread alone. Continuously repeating nonsense does not magically make it true

    The Tories are never going to be the party of Rejoin. It would be far more than “Clause 4” it would be like the SNP abandoning Indy forever. It would shatter the party into pieces and almost certainly extinguish them

    No internals available for header poll but

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/07/18/britons-would-vote-rejoin-eu

    Tory voters in 2019 are now only 66% Leave. Tories were also the party of fox hunting at one stage, now they are neutral or anti. They will pivot on eu the moment polling tells them to.
    Your average tory member has all the qualities of a dog except loyalty but... enough of them will toe the line when the party leadership, of economic and political necessity, switches to rejoin.
    Are you suggesting that the average Tory member is barking?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156

    Rejoining may be a credible possibility, but unless it's on identical terms to before then there will be some very easy attack lines. No rebate hikes the cost even more. The single currency destroys an independent monetary policy.

    We hold all the cards, it’ll be the easiest deal in history.

    There’s only sunlit uplands to rejoining.
    Indeed. I expect we can demand, not only to have cake and eat it, but also that we get to choose the flavour.

    Another point to consider in all this, is that by rejoining we could get rid of lots of bureaucratic red tape from duplicated regulations.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    Miklosvar said:

    Miklosvar said:

    You cannot still be a firm believer, it's like being a Christian and dying and discovering that dead is actually dead, no harps or angels or hellfire. Conclusive refutation.

    Tripe. And a weak analogy. A Christian dying and entering oblivion doesn't 'discover' anything; they're no worse off than an atheist.
    Yes, I was joking. But Sunak is too smart not to see Brexit for the unmitigated disaster it is.
    I hear a lot about Sunak's intelligence, so I suppose it must be true - he strikes me as rather stupid. Happily, his thoughts on Brexit or anything else in British politics will soon be confined to occasional television appearances when they can't get one of the A or B list former PMs.
    He might be very bright. Many MPs are, even as they rarely get a chance to show it because all we get to see is the most basic political spin and decisions.

    But if there's one thing twitter among other things has helped prove its that very smart people can also be very dumb in other areas they comment on, so even if Sunak is very intelligent indeed that doesn't mean he could definitely spot policy a or b as being terrible.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,106

    If Brexit had been a success, I don't think people, on both sides of the debate, would be wittering on about it quite so much more than seven years after the referendum.
    Despite that, I suspect that the chances of us rejoining fully within the next ten years are precisely zero.

    We may never 'rejoin'

    We will simply align our standards and regulations, allow freedom of movement, become a member of the single market and the council, and contest seats at the European elections
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,246
    Carnyx said:

    Parody Rishi Sunak
    @Parody_PM
    ·
    13m
    "I should just point out that paying £1.6bn for a barge with Legionella was a one-off"

    1.6bn?!

    Hadn't realised. Checked. Actually not for one barge, but even so it's a lot for three boats (so far announced) for 2 years, when the boats are only hired.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/barge-australia-asylum-contract-travel-b2354578.html
    Cheaper than Rwanda though. And no less ineffective .
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148

    Re. industrial decline:

    There's a brilliant book about shipbuilding, the Rise and Fall of British Shipbuilding, but Anthony Burton. It's been some time since I read it, but the decline in shipbuilding was far more complex than just bad management! or bad government!, or unions! There are so many other factors, like lack of strategic vision, lack of understanding of the customers, and a radically changing marketplace.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Rise-Fall-British-Shipbuilding/dp/0752489690

    A very good book

    If there had been good management, good social structure in the workplace, flexible unions and government that had some kind of clue, then shipbuilding in the U.K. would have had a chance. But multiply the failures of all of them together…

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,914

    Rejoining may be a credible possibility, but unless it's on identical terms to before then there will be some very easy attack lines. No rebate hikes the cost even more. The single currency destroys an independent monetary policy.

    Yes we should demand we rejoin on the same terms we enjoyed when we left, also insisting the other 27 adopt the pound and Boris Johnson is installed as the titular King of the EU, and he has the ultimate veto on anything he doesn't like.

    We hold all the cards!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,106
    Current Tory members voted for Brexit, and now think it's a shitshow.

    Then they voted for Truss, and it got worse.

    Those that don't die out will eventually vote for relief from those idiots.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,724

    Last night I dreamed that Boris Johnson was round our house. He was still very upset at having to leave number 10. He lay on our floor and cried while I comforted him as best I could, telling him he could at least now spend time with his new wife and their young family. I felt a tremendous wave of sympathy for him. I wonder if any other posters have had this kind of experience?

    You're a soft touch, aren't you?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,144

    Roger said:

    I posted this last night. It's entitled 'Clacton. Living in a post Brexit society'. A brilliant mini documentary (a German crew i think) and it explains why the result was as it was and why the referendum was almost certain to produce the result it did

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUej2pWLUUc

    That is grim Roger.

    One can understand why Johnson's snake oil might have gone down so smoothly.

    British Leyland truly was dire.

    I have no idea how it ended up making such uniformly crap cars. It's not as if we didn't have the design and engineering expertise to make good ones in this country.

    The truth is BL wasn't, or rather it didn't need to be as bad as it turned out.

    The Mini and the 1100/1300 despite their 1952 derived engines were still world beaters in 1968 when British Leyland was formed as the 4th largest automotive group in the world. Pininfarina had been tasked with reworking both the 1100 and the 1800, The results were eye-catching designs that looked like the later Citroen GS and XM models. Issigonis had reworked the Mini into a modern looking hatchback in 1968. Lord Stokes, who was a Triumph man wanted to promote the Triumph product over the BMC offering so they all got cancelled.

    The Marina was a decent idea, fill the fleet market with a simple rwd offering to compete with Britain's second best selling car of the 1960s, the Cortina (the 1100/1300 was the best seller up to and including 1970). It looked modern, although with cart springs at the rear handled like a tractor. The 2 door "coupe" was ridiculous borrowing the 4 door's front doors without extending them for rear seat access, making it look odd. But it should just have been a stop gap until something better came along. Personally I would have persevered with the Austin Apache/Victoria, an attractive three box version of the1100 that was sold in South Africa and Spain.

    The Allegro was a sleek wedge design by Harris Mann, which was squashed in order to fit the Maxi engine under the bonnet. Instead of being an aerodynamic wedge it looked like a dumpy pudding. Neither did it sport a hatchback, a problem that also befell the "wedge" Princess. The Allegro which was awful to drive and inferior to it's predecessor which it replaced. The Allegro of course became the poster boy for all that was wrong with BL.

    The Range Rover was a world beater, and Rover SD1 was well engineered. The Metro looked the part, although still with the Mini's ancient and tired A series engine.

    And of course they were all made by Derek Robinson using paper and string

    The venture was a failure, but the cars weren't "unniformly crap", and it could have been so much different.

    Remember Renault needed bailing out by the French Government too at the same time, and that led to a happier ending.
    I used to be a bit of a car nut, and bought and drove a lot of old bangers in my youth.

    I have had a Triumph Spitfire, Austin Sprite, Mini, Austin 1100, Austin Maxi, Morris Marina, Triumph Dolomite and Rover 3500 at various times. They were all perfectly decent cars, and no more or less driveable and reliable than the old Opels, Lancia*, Fiat, Citroën, Hillman and Fords that I have had at various times. One advantage of old technology like the A series engine is that they were easy to fix at home. Re-doing the brakes on a 2 CV was a nightmare.

    *best to drive with a beautiful engine, but dissolved on a rainy day into a pile of ferrous oxide.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,778

    Dura_Ace said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    I think Labour would be foolish to touch rejoin before stay out is well below 30%. And even then they should expect to walk away from the first round of negotiations with the EU with a firm refusal of the EUs terms, politely letting them know that we'd talk again when they'd reconsidered.

    This is why it's such a mistake for so many rejoiners to present rejoining as something Britain can't survive without. They've then got nowhere to go when the EU makes absurd demands in entry negotiations.

    It’ll be the Tories who advocate it, once they accept the need to reinvent themselves. Cf the Section 28 to gay marriage journey.
    Yes, after 2 terms in the wilderness the Tories will need to detoxify themselves and reinvent themselves as a party of business with something to offer the under 65's. Going back to the pre 2016 position held for a half century of Joining the EU would fit nicely in. A sort of Clause 4 moment showing they were serious.

    Until then Brexit is the albatross around their neck, and a major drag on Tory polling.
    You’ve now said exactly this, about 5 times on this thread alone. Continuously repeating nonsense does not magically make it true

    The Tories are never going to be the party of Rejoin. It would be far more than “Clause 4” it would be like the SNP abandoning Indy forever. It would shatter the party into pieces and almost certainly extinguish them

    No internals available for header poll but

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/07/18/britons-would-vote-rejoin-eu

    Tory voters in 2019 are now only 66% Leave. Tories were also the party of fox hunting at one stage, now they are neutral or anti. They will pivot on eu the moment polling tells them to.
    Your average tory member has all the qualities of a dog except loyalty but... enough of them will toe the line when the party leadership, of economic and political necessity, switches to rejoin.
    Are you suggesting that the average Tory member is barking?
    The way they will sell it to the gammons is: if we rejoin we can Brexit again and you fucking loved that the first time. Imagine how good it will be when we do it again? Now, take your Sanatogen, watch GB News and shut the fuck up.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148
    edited August 2023
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Re. industrial decline:

    There's a brilliant book about shipbuilding, the Rise and Fall of British Shipbuilding, but Anthony Burton. It's been some time since I read it, but the decline in shipbuilding was far more complex than just bad management! or bad government!, or unions! There are so many other factors, like lack of strategic vision, lack of understanding of the customers, and a radically changing marketplace.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Rise-Fall-British-Shipbuilding/dp/0752489690

    Sounds as though a lot of that would apply to the car industry too.
    Much of it seems to have resulted from an unspoken, but deeply ingrained assumption on the part of everyone involved, that they had the market to themselves.

    A kind of wilful blindness, or just deep strupidity.
    Lack of vision. There was, as you say, a fundamental, deep belief, by all concerned, that there was a permanent market for British products, no matter how expensive or poor quality. Something written in poor old Magna Carta or something.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    kinabalu said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    How long before a populist strongman tries The El Salvador Method on a much bigger LatAm nation?


    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/7/could-el-salvadors-gang-crackdown-spread-across-latin-america

    https://www.economist.com/films/2023/07/21/inside-el-salvadors-war-on-crime

    More importantly and interestingly, how long before it is tried in an advanced western nation with spiraling crime and urban decay?

    The self-styled "cool dictator" has stratospheric popularity. People like the Singapore approach. Zero tolerance. String em up or bang em up.

    Within a decade we will see a version in the west, is my bet. Prime candidates: the USA, or Sweden. Perhaps Italy or France next

    The problem any western country would face is that they couldn't easily copy anything remotely like that without formally giving up on the pretence of the 'rules-based international community'. It would mean the end of the current conception of what the West is.
    You mean 'aspiration' not 'pretence', don't you?
    That depends if people regard it as already achieved (wrongly) or they know its not but still hope to achieve it as its a good idea.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,106
    The figurehead for the future Tory EU campaign will of course be Margaret Thatcher
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,914

    If Brexit had been a success, I don't think people, on both sides of the debate, would be wittering on about it quite so much more than seven years after the referendum.
    Despite that, I suspect that the chances of us rejoining fully within the next ten years are precisely zero.

    True, but I will still miss my freedom of movement.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Re. industrial decline:

    There's a brilliant book about shipbuilding, the Rise and Fall of British Shipbuilding, but Anthony Burton. It's been some time since I read it, but the decline in shipbuilding was far more complex than just bad management! or bad government!, or unions! There are so many other factors, like lack of strategic vision, lack of understanding of the customers, and a radically changing marketplace.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Rise-Fall-British-Shipbuilding/dp/0752489690

    Sounds as though a lot of that would apply to the car industry too.
    Much of it seems to have resulted from an unspoken, but deeply ingrained assumption on the part of everyone involved, that they had the market to themselves.

    A kind of wilful blindness, or just deep strupidity.
    Lack of vision. There was a fundamental, deep belief, by all concerned, that there was a permanent market for British products, no matter how expensive or poor quality. Something written in poor old Magna Carta or something.
    Imperial motherland thinking, partly, I presume, rather than starting again in the 1945-55 era with a cleanish slate in a union of equal states. ,
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    This football is drearily poor. Like watching non league men’s football on a wet muddy pitch in Feb 1978
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,778
    Foxy said:

    Re-doing the brakes on a 2 CV was a nightmare.



    Their is a vast amount of genius level engineering in a Deux Pattes but 99% of that genius was focused on making it cheap to build. They are a maintenance nightmare.
  • Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    Good morning

    I believe the current polling on the EU is a result of the unpopularity of this government and the economic strains being experienced by so many

    As others had said, in a better economic climate I believe re-join would diminish and there is at present a lot of nostalgia for something which is of the past

    Nobody can say what the future holds re the EU, not least because of continuing change, but as I am not opposed to freedom of movement re-joining the single market appeals to me without going for full membership

    The EU is not a panacea for all our troubles and who could have predicted a couple of years ago that Germany is now the sick country of Europe, we are also witnessing the rise of the right across Europe, and of course the vey serious migration flows into southern Europe are going to increase dramatically with untold consequences

    I expect Brexit will be a constant theme for some, and even if we did re-join it would be naïve to believe it would go away as an issue, as it has been in our politics for decades

    G , anyone who thinks Germany is worse than UK is barking.
    Good morning Malc

    Seems Germany is having serious problems

    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-economy-weakens-2023/a-66403943
    D
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    I think Labour would be foolish to touch rejoin before stay out is well below 30%. And even then they should expect to walk away from the first round of negotiations with the EU with a firm refusal of the EUs terms, politely letting them know that we'd talk again when they'd reconsidered.

    This is why it's such a mistake for so many rejoiners to present rejoining as something Britain can't survive without. They've then got nowhere to go when the EU makes absurd demands in entry negotiations.

    It’ll be the Tories who advocate it, once they accept the need to reinvent themselves. Cf the Section 28 to gay marriage journey.
    Yes, after 2 terms in the wilderness the Tories will need to detoxify themselves and reinvent themselves as a party of business with something to offer the under 65's. Going back to the pre 2016 position held for a half century of Joining the EU would fit nicely in. A sort of Clause 4 moment showing they were serious.

    Until then Brexit is the albatross around their neck, and a major drag on Tory polling.
    You’ve now said exactly this, about 5 times on this thread alone. Continuously repeating nonsense does not magically make it true

    The Tories are never going to be the party of Rejoin. It would be far more than “Clause 4” it would be like the SNP abandoning Indy forever. It would shatter the party into pieces and almost certainly extinguish them

    No, for the half century to 2016 it was the Tories that were the pro-EU party, that joined under Heath, expanded under Thatcher, brought in the Single Market, and supported EU expansion to the East. The aberration is the recent Xenophobia.
    In some ways yes, some ways no. But the plain fact is, for the Tories to become the party of Rejoin you’d have to miraculously replace 90% of their members, 95% of their activists and about 75% of their MPs, and their overriding philosophical position of the last decade, and also get the entire party to accept Britain should once again subordinate itself to Brussels, after a tragic mistake which they passionately supported

    I mean, when you look at it like that, it’s just not
    gonna happen, is it?

    If Rejoin ever becomes a major idea in UK politics (something I obviously and gravely doubt) it will come from Labour (with the LDs and SNP as a supporting cast)
    It was a Tory Prime Minister who spearheaded the campaign for Remain not so long ago. And going back a bit further, Labour was very anti the Common Market.

    Parties change.
    And ultimately, Brexit was and is the project of one specific generation. Everyone else was and is fine with the EU, closer union and all.

    But for now,
    YES, IT'S A LOVELY BREXIT, WE WOULDN'T DREAM OF GETTING RID OF IT. THE MAN FROM THE ANTIQUE SHOP IS JUST HERE TO GIVE US A VALUATION FOR THE INSURANCE. YES, I'M SURE IT'S VERY VALUABLE.

    How about we give you a tenner to take it off our hands? Not today obviously.
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