Of the three by-elections that the Tories were defending last Thursday Uxbridge seemed to be the most challenging for the Tories. Yet the party ended up with a very narrow hold after a very skilled campaign linked to the planned extension of ULEZ in the outer London boroughs.
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This is the coincidence of green politics and the pound in your pocket (not you @Anabobazina), and the latter usually and especially now will win.
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Attraction_Review-g186505-d216448-Reviews-Hermitage_Castle-Hawick_Scottish_Borders_Scotland.html
https://www.english-heritage.org.uk/visit/places/bolsover-castle/
ULEZ, LTNs, etc are money making schemes and people are very cautious about them. Extra taxes, meanwhile, for green initiatives, or higher prices for green energy are money costing schemes and people loathe them.
Declaring war on the environment is either heroic or idiotic under the current circumstances. I tend to see it as the latter.
I’m in Boston, a city much enhanced by the Rose Kennedy Greenway. I dare say Wishi would have it concreted over.
'Environmental groups claiming to represent 20 million people will mobilise their members if UK ministers water down climate commitments, they have warned.
Groups including the RSPB, National Trust and the RSPCA have written to the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, who has signalled his willingness to back away from green policies should the Conservatives stand to benefit from it electorally.
“We will not stand by whilst politicians use the environment as a political football. It is courage and leadership that we need now,” they said.
“In the past, we have mobilised many of our members collectively with extraordinary results, and our resolve to stand firm now against any and all attacks on this critical policy agenda remains absolute.”'
Hardly Just Stop Oil. And that was before the latest news.
I think Sunak has been desperate to find a winning dividing line. He's sensed one here, because.. Uxbridge, and has turned it up to 11 heedless of mood music to the extent it drowns out everything else.
It risks looking desperate and delusional. A more cautious and measured approach would have been far better, even if I do agree with him that North Sea oil & gas does need to have a future for the next few decades.
Having said that, I love discussions like this on PB. I have started compiling on Google Maps a list of "Want to go" places where many of the suggestions have been added. Thank you to everyone for their contributions.
This is Hillingdon Council’s response to the ULEZ proposal:
https://www.hillingdon.gov.uk/media/9963/Hillingdon-Councils-response-to-Mayors-ULEZ-proposals/pdf/c320220728_London_Borough_of_Hillingdon_ULEZ_Response_FINAL_28-07-2022_7n6qth044uks.pdf
TLDR:
- Hillingdon is more spread out
- Has greater car ownership
- Poorer public transport
- Lower levels of pollution.
Why is a “Central London” solution being imposed on outer London?
I think in a cost of living crisis, green policies feel like a luxury to many.
The fear of having your old petrol car taxed off the roads and having to fork out for a new electric one (especially if you live in a flat, and have no ability to charge it yourself) is a worry for many. The thought of your boiler packing in next week and going, hmm, do I have to fork out 5k for a gas boiler now when they may switch the gas off in 10 years, or invest 11k in a heat pump that everyone says won't even heat my house properly? The thought that even if your car is ULEZ compatible now, how long until mission creep increases the environmental standards further and further so your five year old ICE car is suddenly obsolete and worthless?
Green policies hit the pocket. There are very few green initiatives you can think of that mean paying *less* money, simply because the way they work is they are designed to increase the cost of things to cover negative externalities. And while many people understand the need to transition to a low-carbon economy, there will be a lot of voters thinking that in a cost of living crisis, this is something that they can ill afford.
And for many people, the little things just grate. For example, a friend of mine is infuriated by paper straws, which always get soggy and useless half way through his drink. I've told him he can always drink without a straw like a grown up, but for some people, these little things matter. It's the same with heat pumps. The idea that the green alternative is in some way *worse* than what you had before. I think it was Malmesbury the other day who said, you only need 10 policies that really piss 5% of the population off, before you have pissed off 50% of the population.
Sunak is never going to win over the inner cities or the greenies, but car-driving, middle-income, Middle England, increasingly worried about the cost of living, will find his message resonates.
I am going with a resounding No here. The question isn't whether anti-Ulezism is crap (it is) but whether it is less crap than the hope of succeeding on the Five Pledges, or making an IHT-based comeback in the polls (it is). It rams the spikes on the fence further up SKS. People like and want their cars. This is good politics.
1) the goal is the reduction of pollution
2) the current ULEZ scheme is *one way* of doing this.
3) opposing 2) doesn’t mean you oppose 1)
Some people seem to saying that “We must do flat rate ULEZ to fuck those caught out, because fucking those people over proves our virtue.”
Having said that, London is a bugger to get about now, traffic wise. Much worse than New York. Have I read that its traffic is the slowest moving in the Western world or something?
I blame TfL, and Khan, who is totally useless.
Evs are not affordable for millions, heat pumps are not only unaffordable but in many cases not practical, requiring properties to have a 'c' efficiency rating to be sold is also unaffordable for many, and our 2030 ban on ICE cars is silly when the EU is 2035
I have no idea whether Sunak will benefit from his obvious move to differentiate from Labour, but there are 35 million motorists in the UK who are an important group politicially and indeed the Sun is taking up their cause judging by today's front page
Lambeth: £22m in low-traffic fines an abuse of power, say campaigners.
It has already been concreted over.
He's a loyal Conservative, who hits the streets to campaign regardless of who's PM or the state of the national party, but adopts an alter ego here as a devil's advocate - deliberately - to test his own side's way of thinking, and occasionally troll the other.
JackW used to do similar.
The vast majority of people are car-based. Which is heavily distorted by policymakers and media being based in London, where most commutes are by train.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-statistics-great-britain-2022/transport-statistics-great-britain-2022-domestic-travel
Angela Rayner gave the game away on TV last week, saying that this is not just a London issue, and similar schemes are "coming to towns and cities across the whole of the UK."
https://youtube.com/watch?v=fr3pRBjvIuo
The implementation of the ULEZ expansion has been massively regressive, with the middle-classes driving having complaint cars, and those in the 2nd and 3rd quintiles by income most likely to have non-compliant cars they both rely on but can’t afford to replace. There’s also a feeling that this is the thin end of the wedge, with the scheme quickly expanded to many more vehicles.
There’s also the boiling issue of cloned number plates, where people who have never been near London are having to defend themselves in court. Everyone should make sure that a photo of their car is unique, when compared to an adversary with a photo of a car of the same year and colour as yours, and with the same number plate. Government need to sort this out, possibly by moving to the system of stepped plates as used in the US, Germany and many other states.
Lastly, if there are going to be dozens of these schemes, then there needs to be a UK-centralised system of payments, rather than dozens of individual operators trying to trick people into getting fined. You should get a bill monthly, paid by DD as with other utilities.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/01/us/politics/biden-trump-poll.html
I think Rishi could be on to something. Not for everyone, but a non-trivial number nevertheless.
(A prerequisite for this to be true requires that the intention was always to extend the ULEZ to outer London eventually - does anyone know if this was the case?)
James Carville's campaigning maxim is evergreen.
No it isn't. Peoples' greenery dies 100% where their self interest begins.
If the only policies enacted are punitive policies aimed at individuals and not big system change or aimed at the actual significant pollutants - of course people will hate them. It's almost like doing bad policies produces negative views of those policies.
Google "LTN Fines" and fill your (and the councils') boots.
No because there is mileage in opposing a number of these policies. For all we may think that going “green” is morally positive, and responsible, and will have benefits in the long run, there are a number of serious, serious issues with the current approach:
1. Changes being made without (perceived) public consent/support.
2. Deadlines for phasing out of certain things on which people currently rely without any real integrated solution yet in place for what will replace them (and how it will be paid for).
3. Perception that the changes do not simply make people’s lives “different”, but more inconvenient and costly.
This will be a very serious political issue as we approach the end of the decade.
Yes, because a) while I think there is dissatisfaction brewing right now, I’m not sure it’s a top political issue - yet. And also - who has been in power for the past 13 years and presided over this state of affairs? It all looks a bit disingenuous.
Between that and his absurd tailoring - now a popular meme on X/Twitter - he is an embarassment.
All it needed was a longer run in to give people time to switch, and/or a tapered charge.
For journeys inside Greater London I rarely use my car (usually only to carry bulky things) and within the North Circular, never,
But the problem is that most of my car journeys are to a destination outside Greater London. For example my daughter lives with my ex in Brentwood. There is a frequent TFL bus to Brentwood, but it stops just over a mile from where they live. There is another bus to their estate but it is both infrequent and expensive. The Elizabeth Line station is almost a further mile away. So in practice you have to allow 55 minutes for the 7 mile journey between my house and hers. I can do the round trip in my car in that time. Or to the Country Park nearby it is a mile and a half walk from the nearest bus stop.
So the other thing needed is TFL levels of public transport between Greater London and the next town outside, and within and between them.
But Sunak is not proposing this, so it will do him no good, because essentially the ULEZ is popular with the 90% of people who don't own an old diesel.
This is only something that the Tories can oppose, because those introducing the schemes are Labour mayors, and it’s not too difficult to suggest from there that if Labour are elected these schemes will be everywhere. Pay up or get the bus. Except there’s one bus an hour, and not after 7pm.
Same sort of thing as Emma Thompson.
Perhaps some bot had noticed me reading about "absurd tailoring" downthread.
https://toptests.co.uk/driving-statistics/
This particular stat jumps out as much lower than I thought it would be - I know post pandemic there have been a backlog of people wanting to do tests, so am unsure if it would be even lower now?:
"In 2018, in England, 37% of men and women aged 17–20 held a full driving licence."
It doesn't matter that only drivers of older diesel-fuelled cars have to pay. That's just a detail. This is about EMOTIONS.
It doesn't matter either that zoning is in the pipeline on a scale that few can currently imagine, and therefore all the talk about getting rid of ULEZ is only chaff anyway.
The polling in the next week or so will probably show an improvement for the Tories.
In other news, moving hundreds of asylum seekers to a prison barge, the Bibby Stockholm, is also popular. Just don't call it detention. Nice move that. Whack! No I haven't hit you over your head. Who do you think you are, coming here and insisting that your point of view is valid? Take that! Whack!
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/home-office-bibby-stockholm-asylum-move-b2385377.html
Lawyers say the asylum seekers many of whom have travelled to Britain by sea will be retraumatised by being locked up on a prison barge. Meanwhile the inmates residents are being "provided" with a "worship room" and "entertainment areas". You only have to ask how all of this will play in northern so-called ex-Red Wall seats to realise the answer is obvious. Seriously how are voters who went from Labour to Conservative going to feel when their earholes get hit with the following combination of words: asylum seekers, moved out of hotels, lawyers, claim, retraumatised?
During my mild kerfuffle over the air raid siren - which was combined with loud but distant bangs - I lost my wallet
In context, it seems like a mild annoyance whereas normally I’d be most vexed
Meh. I’m having a beer
Turnbull & Asser are my work shirts of choice.
This from the Guardian confirms the high cost and uncertainties chills the heat pump market
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/apr/15/high-costs-and-uncertainties-cast-a-chill-over-britains-heat-pump-market
The UK is entirely unprepared of course for its largest ally giving up on Ukraine (and democracy generally).
Patrick Harvie is set to penalise owners of fossil fuel boilers in a shake-up of energy efficiency standards under a “massive transition” to how people heat their homes.
The Greens minister has insisted that millions of homes will need to clean up heating systems “at a pace and scale that is consistent with Scotland’s legal climate targets”…..
From 2025, certain trigger points such as the sale of a home, will mean properties will need to meet EPC band C energy efficiency standards, while new fossil fuel boilers will be banned in new buildings from next April.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/23670366.gas-boilers-set-penalised-energy-efficiency-overhaul/
Of course the last Green led policy proposal went so well….
The one advantage is that they didn’t start with boilers. So no existing infrastructure to replace really.
It’s the parking fines and LTN fines that go to local authorities.
Have a holiday in the sandpit and have some shirts made while you’re here. Ascots & Chapels out here will do five shirts for £300.
Although there are some stunning stories in America of more than half of some city budgets coming from fines of various kinds, which is both shocking and hilarious as it means they rely on people breaking the law to function!
This isn't easy to deal with: retrofitting good levels of insulation to old houses is hard, sometime impossible. Add to that the fact that little has been done to actually make the transition to heat pumps happen: the grid hasn't been updated sufficiently, the cost of upgrading the supply to houses where necessary is prohibitive (we were quoted £20K + VAT), and the supply network isn't there.
The problem is that politicians (I'm looking at you, Boris) have made big promises about targets, but haven't actually done anything to make those targets achievable. The situation on electric cars is even worse than on heat pumps; Boris told COP26 that we'd ban new petrol/diesel cars by 2030, because (as always) he told his audience what they wanted to hear. But the actual hard graft of installing charging points, upgrading the grid and ensuring the electric cars will actually be manufactured at a reasonable price has been neglected. It's not all going to happen by itself.
Nat 34.5%
Lab 30.3%
ACT 12.8%
TPM 4.5%
Grn 4.2%
NZF 3.9%
TOP 2.2%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election
They need to be installed properly as well.
There is already a nasty little scam on unsuspecting people of charging them a fortune for sticking the air source unit in their garden, connecting it to their existing plumbing and doing nothing else.
Like selling exploding e-bikes, this needs stepping on.