Ambling back from dinner tonight and who should pop up speaking in the square, but @SandyRentool speaking fluent Greek. Well behaved young audience, no hecklers or police presence. Just a lot of people listening to democracy in action. 200 yards away the Anarchists were meeting, with another young crowd, and cheap beer. Election is Sunday, ND likely to win.
I've educated the PB world on how to post photos the right way up a few times
But Tory members are so high up the demographic curve that they are dying off at an alarming rate...
No they are not. Given life expectancies and the late-life care which your older Conservative Party member can no doubt afford, somebody mid-seventies will have about fifteen years in front of them. Unpleasant years, but still there and still capable of putting a cross on a postal vote form.
We keep saying that they are dying off, but there are A LOT of pensioners and for around the next ten-fifteen years they will remain the dominant force in British politics. When it switches it will switch fast as they begin to be outnumbered by younger votes in sufficient proportion to outweigh differential turnout by age, but until then it will be pensionerism all the way...
Even then the median voter will be aged 50 still not 30
Taking into account both raw demographics and propensity to vote, I believe that the median voter is aged about 55. This value is likely to keep creeping slowly up for the foreseeable, because so many younger people aren't forming families for various reasons, not least the crippling cost. Yet another issue that can be put down to the full spectrum catastrophe that is the British property market.
Not that this is any real use to the Conservatives in the long run, because people are no longer moving rightwards as they age. Being the party of the landed interest - minted pensioner owner-occupiers, their heirs and rentiers - only wins elections so long as there are enough of those people around to keep voting for you. Those who have neither significant assets nor any realistic prospect of accruing them have nothing to conserve and, consequently, no use for conservatism.
By 55 plenty are starting to inherit property (and most should have bought a property with a mortgage well before then anyway).
I'm 56. I don't know many of my cohort who have lost both parents.
By 56 if your parents had you at 30 they would be 86. On average most are dead by 86
But my parents weren't 30.
Nor were many parents
I was 22 when our eldest was born
And I would just say @HYUFD is utterly obsessed with inheritance, when most people's estate will be greatly reduced by care fees for their parents
Black swan. Would the defeat of Putin give Sunak a boost?
No! If the defeat of Hitler didn't do much for Churchill the defeat of Putin won't do a great deal for Sunak.
Elections are always decided at home, not abroad.
I mean, this is a great retort. It doesn't mean it can't happen this time, but your baseline assumption has to be as you say.
Look to 1983 as well. The Conservatives won that bigly, but mainly because of a highly split opposition. Their vote share edged down slightly. Possibly it would have been worse than a 1.5% drop without the Falklands, we can't know for sure. The polling data shows an increase in Conservative VI starting well before the war and peaking before the end of it.
Three of the people are from Surrey and the other from North London with a £950k mortgage.
One of the Surrey lot is:
Steven, 52, and his wife have an interest-only mortgage. They bought their house 20 years ago, initially on an interest rate of 4.8%.
Jesus H Christ.
A house bought 20 years ago should be all-but paid off by now, and even interest-only would have been bought at about 10% of the current price of houses anyway.
So if they're struggling they haven't just not paid the capital down, they've presumably remortgaged to extract their 'equity growth' and spent that money. 🤦♂️
Ambling back from dinner tonight and who should pop up speaking in the square, but @SandyRentool speaking fluent Greek. Well behaved young audience, no hecklers or police presence. Just a lot of people listening to democracy in action. 200 yards away the Anarchists were meeting, with another young crowd, and cheap beer. Election is Sunday, ND likely to win.
I've educated the PB world on how to post photos the right way up a few times
Labour's honeymoon starts and ends on election day.
A widespread belief amongst Conservatives in 1997, too ISTR.
Yeah, but this decade is much more like the 1970s than the 1990s/2000s
As I've been saying for about 18 months the next election is 1974 not 1997.
Not convinced. This decade has the potential to be much more like 1997.
Economically we're at full employment, not mass unemployment like the 1970s/80s.
The housing bubble if it bursts will be painful while it happens but afterwards would be a fantastic correction to the economy that would then allow people opportunities currently denied to them and a feelgood factor accompanying it as a result afterwards, like the 90s.
Inflation is likely to fall away and real wage growth should return.
The next 18 months may be tough, especially from those who lose out from the bubble bursting, but the five years afterwards could be much more positive.
I'm much more pessimistic about the prospects over the next five years but I do of course hope you're right and I'm wrong.
Labour's honeymoon starts and ends on election day.
A widespread belief amongst Conservatives in 1997, too ISTR.
Yeah, but this decade is much more like the 1970s than the 1990s/2000s
As I've been saying for about 18 months the next election is 1974 not 1997.
Not convinced. This decade has the potential to be much more like 1997.
Economically we're at full employment, not mass unemployment like the 1970s/80s.
The housing bubble if it bursts will be painful while it happens but afterwards would be a fantastic correction to the economy that would then allow people opportunities currently denied to them and a feelgood factor accompanying it as a result afterwards, like the 90s.
Inflation is likely to fall away and real wage growth should return.
The next 18 months may be tough, especially from those who lose out from the bubble bursting, but the five years afterwards could be much more positive.
In 10 years time Tories will be telling us how the extended period of rapidly improving economy under Labour is all down to foundations laid by Johnson Truss and Sunak 😂
Only 15% want to rejoin is devastating for those who make a daily effort to promote everything pro EU
15% of 2016 leavers, fortysomething overall.
Either Brexit delivers the goods for the British people (and neither EPC nor CPTPP looks like doing that) or it will die. And deservedly so.
Because even if you accept that 2016-9 created a duty for Britain to try Brexit, there comes a point on both time and numbers where the county shouldn't be a prisoner of a decision taken on one day in 2016.
post GE 2024 - William Hague Lite = Kemi Badenoch?
Nah. Barclay is more like Hague (or EdM); significant figure in the old government, thinks like a government man, likely to flounder in opposition, because it's a different game.
If history really rhymes, the sequence will be Barclay (loses), Badenoch (blows up), Mordaunt (loses, but respectably), someone unknown (the next Conservative PM).
Ten years doesn't take long if you say it quickly.
Barclay has taken steps to dissociate himself from extreme Brexiteerism, probably because he does want the top job. Standing is the first, necessary step.
Labour's honeymoon starts and ends on election day.
A widespread belief amongst Conservatives in 1997, too ISTR.
Yeah, but this decade is much more like the 1970s than the 1990s/2000s
As I've been saying for about 18 months the next election is 1974 not 1997.
Not convinced. This decade has the potential to be much more like 1997.
Economically we're at full employment, not mass unemployment like the 1970s/80s.
The housing bubble if it bursts will be painful while it happens but afterwards would be a fantastic correction to the economy that would then allow people opportunities currently denied to them and a feelgood factor accompanying it as a result afterwards, like the 90s.
Inflation is likely to fall away and real wage growth should return.
The next 18 months may be tough, especially from those who lose out from the bubble bursting, but the five years afterwards could be much more positive.
In 10 years time Tories will be telling us how the extended period of rapidly improving economy under Labour is all down to foundations laid by Johnson Truss and Sunak 😂
And they'd be right
Albeit that Sunak has fought those foundations every step of the way and they're happening despite him not because of him.
Ambling back from dinner tonight and who should pop up speaking in the square, but @SandyRentool speaking fluent Greek. Well behaved young audience, no hecklers or police presence. Just a lot of people listening to democracy in action. 200 yards away the Anarchists were meeting, with another young crowd, and cheap beer. Election is Sunday, ND likely to win.
I've educated the PB world on how to post photos the right way up a few times
Do you need a refresher course?
Yes...
On iPhone..
Edit the picture, trim a tiny bit off
It'll save as the orientation that you did the edit
An absolutely Mediterranean twilight sky in Primrose Hill tonight….
Relatedly? -
There has been an outbreak of sea swimming in the North Sea after work at my place. It is warmer (more correctly less Baltic) than anyone can ever remember. Almost the entire staff are hitting the waters to cool off physically and mentally.
You mean there's actually somewhere round the English coastline where the water isn't full of raw sewage?
Only 15% want to rejoin is devastating for those who make a daily effort to promote everything pro EU
Huh? 15% of people who voted leave want to rejoin the entity they expressly voted to leave? That’s brilliant for Rejoiners. Because they are now in the Rejoin camp. Do you see how this works?
An absolutely Mediterranean twilight sky in Primrose Hill tonight….
Relatedly? -
There has been an outbreak of sea swimming in the North Sea after work at my place. It is warmer (more correctly less Baltic) than anyone can ever remember. Almost the entire staff are hitting the waters to cool off physically and mentally.
Apparently the seas around Britain are 5C warmer than normal. That takes them from “bracing” to almost Mediterranean - at least in somewhere like Cornwall
It's worth remembering that, excellent as she was at wielding a ceremonial sword, Penny Mordaunt was all over the place during the last-but-one leadership contest. Essentially, the more she spoke, the more her support faltered.
The last thing the Tories need is another vacuous blonde with no achievements to their name but with a great capacity for self-promotion, telling lies and being photographed. Aren't Johnson and Truss enough for them?
Badenoch had an an opportunity with the Post Office to do something worthwhile and just but has fluffed it.
I tend to the @Heathener view - that either because of disgust and anger or weariness with the whole shambolic lot of them the Tories could do very badly indeed. Why should anyone vote for a party which does not know its arse from its elbow.
Your dislike of Mordaunt - and the reasons you give for it are stupid IMV.
"vacuous blonde" - wtf does hair colour have to do with it? You'd be the first person calling a man sexist for saying that. Vacuous - ditto.
'no achievements to their name' - the same is true for most politicians. Blair, for instance. Or Cameron.
'capacity for self-promotion' - ditto.
'telling lies' - ditto. And I think you're being a little unfair in that respect as well.
'being photographed' - a surprising number of politicians fail even that test.
"Blonde" is an accurate description not a criticism. Who are you to tell people they can't use adjectives.
"Vacuous" - that is an accurate description of how she came across in the debates when she stood for party leader last time: her answers to questions were feeble, she had no policy positions to put forward, all she said was giddy.
"Self-promotion" - that is what she is good at hence all the nice articles about her. But there is no substance that I can see - and in that regard she seems rather more similar to Truss and Johnson and indeed Sunak than the break with them that is needed.
"Telling lies" - yes she lied over Brexit and her support for Brexit is not a sign of good judgment and she lied about what she tried to do over womens rights issues. She also dissembled about her time in the Navy. Small lies maybe but it is the fact that her default seems to be to lie when challenged which is the problem. Again it is reminiscent of Johnson. Integrity is something the Tories badly need.
She supported Truss pretty vocally during her ill-fated government and has Andrea Leadsom as her main advisor, which does not strike me as exhibiting good judgment. What achievements had she had in office?
As far as I can see the main reason so many men here like her is because they have the hots for her.
She does have presence which Sunak does not have. She can do jokes. Her response on the Privileges Committee report was well judged. So was Mrs May's and no-one is sugge
It's worth remembering that, excellent as she was at wielding a ceremonial sword, Penny Mordaunt was all over the place during the last-but-one leadership contest. Essentially, the more she spoke, the more her support faltered.
The last thing the Tories need is another vacuous blonde with no achievements to their name but with a great capacity for self-promotion, telling lies and being photographed. Aren't Johnson and Truss enough for them?
Badenoch had an an opportunity with the Post Office to do something worthwhile and just but has fluffed it.
I tend to the @Heathener view - that either because of disgust and anger or weariness with the whole shambolic lot of them the Tories could do very badly indeed. Why should anyone vote for a party which does not know its arse from its elbow.
Your dislike of Mordaunt - and the reasons you give for it are stupid IMV.
"vacuous blonde" - wtf does hair colour have to do with it? You'd be the first person calling a man sexist for saying that. Vacuous - ditto.
'no achievements to their name' - the same is true for most politicians. Blair, for instance. Or Cameron.
'capacity for self-promotion' - ditto.
'telling lies' - ditto. And I think you're being a little unfair in that respect as well.
'being photographed' - a surprising number of politicians fail even that test.
"Blonde" is an accurate description not a criticism. Who are you to tell people they can't use adjectives.
"Vacuous" - that is an accurate description of how she came across in the debates when she stood for party leader last time: her answers to questions were feeble, she had no policy positions to put forward, all she said was giddy.
"Self-promotion" - that is what she is good at hence all the nice articles about her. But there is no substance that I can see - and in that regard she seems rather more similar to Truss and Johnson and indeed Sunak than the break with them that is needed.
"Telling lies" - yes she lied over Brexit and her support for Brexit is not a sign of good judgment and she lied about what she tried to do over womens rights issues. She also dissembled about her time in the Navy. Small lies maybe but it is the fact that her default seems to be to lie when challenged which is the problem. Again it is reminiscent of Johnson. Integrity is something the Tories badly need.
She supported Truss pretty vocally during her ill-fated government and has Andrea Leadsom as her main advisor, which does not strike me as exhibiting good judgment. What achievements has she had in office?
As far as I can see the main reason so many men here like her is because they have the hots for her.
She does have presence which Sunak does not have. She can do jokes. Her response on the Privileges Committee report was well judged. So was Mrs May's and no-one is suggesting her.
But really it is not enough. Nowhere near. The current batch of senior wannabe leader Tories are all cut from the same cloth. The next leader with a chance of winning will be from the next generation not this one. They will need to be because they will need that time to rethink what Conservatism means and can offer in the 2030's and 2040's. I see no sign that Mordaunt or anyone else being touted is even beginning to think about this.
Oh and I criticise both men and women for how they look and dress because I think that when people go out in public they should make an effort to be presentable at the very least and elegant at best. If you cannot be bothered to make that effort stay at home.
Oh come off it, you can't call someone a "vacuous blonde" and then not expect for it to be called out as sexist. It's an old misogynistic trope. "But adjectives" is a pretty feeble response.
Bollocks. Johnson, Truss and Mordaunt are all in my view vacuous blondes. I have given you chapter and verse on why I think Mordaunt is vacuous and have done the same for Johnson as well, repeatedly, in numerous headers since 2018. Truss seemed to show some cunning but I decided that she was ghastly and said so.
And I am not taking any lessons on sexism from the misogynists on here who have attacked me repeatedly because I have been one of the few who has spoken up for women's rights.
Only 15% want to rejoin is devastating for those who make a daily effort to promote everything pro EU
15% of 2016 leavers, fortysomething overall.
Either Brexit delivers the goods for the British people (and neither EPC nor CPTPP looks like doing that) or it will die. And deservedly so.
Because even if you accept that 2016-9 created a duty for Britain to try Brexit, there comes a point on both time and numbers where the county shouldn't be a prisoner of a decision taken on one day in 2016.
Brexit won't die, because its happened. Its done, over, in the history books already.
Any duty of the decision taken in 2016 was fulfilled in full when we left on 31/01/2020 - that is history now. Finished, caput, done, over.
If we vote to rejoin now, that'd be entirely democratic.
However I would rate the odds of it happening at less than 5% personally. People have moved on. Labour will have bigger fish to fry trying to reshape the country how they want to in their time in power than reopening old wounds on relations with Europe.
But Tory members are so high up the demographic curve that they are dying off at an alarming rate...
No they are not. Given life expectancies and the late-life care which your older Conservative Party member can no doubt afford, somebody mid-seventies will have about fifteen years in front of them. Unpleasant years, but still there and still capable of putting a cross on a postal vote form.
We keep saying that they are dying off, but there are A LOT of pensioners and for around the next ten-fifteen years they will remain the dominant force in British politics. When it switches it will switch fast as they begin to be outnumbered by younger votes in sufficient proportion to outweigh differential turnout by age, but until then it will be pensionerism all the way...
Even then the median voter will be aged 50 still not 30
Taking into account both raw demographics and propensity to vote, I believe that the median voter is aged about 55. This value is likely to keep creeping slowly up for the foreseeable, because so many younger people aren't forming families for various reasons, not least the crippling cost. Yet another issue that can be put down to the full spectrum catastrophe that is the British property market.
Not that this is any real use to the Conservatives in the long run, because people are no longer moving rightwards as they age. Being the party of the landed interest - minted pensioner owner-occupiers, their heirs and rentiers - only wins elections so long as there are enough of those people around to keep voting for you. Those who have neither significant assets nor any realistic prospect of accruing them have nothing to conserve and, consequently, no use for conservatism.
By 55 plenty are starting to inherit property (and most should have bought a property with a mortgage well before then anyway).
I'm 56. I don't know many of my cohort who have lost both parents.
By 56 if your parents had you at 30 they would be 86. On average most are dead by 86
But my parents weren't 30.
Nor were many parents
I was 22 when our eldest was born
And I would just say @HYUFD is utterly obsessed with inheritance, when most people's estate will be greatly reduced by care fees for their parents
And now average age of first child is over 30, so even more likely your parents will be dead by the time you reach 56.
But Tory members are so high up the demographic curve that they are dying off at an alarming rate...
No they are not. Given life expectancies and the late-life care which your older Conservative Party member can no doubt afford, somebody mid-seventies will have about fifteen years in front of them. Unpleasant years, but still there and still capable of putting a cross on a postal vote form.
We keep saying that they are dying off, but there are A LOT of pensioners and for around the next ten-fifteen years they will remain the dominant force in British politics. When it switches it will switch fast as they begin to be outnumbered by younger votes in sufficient proportion to outweigh differential turnout by age, but until then it will be pensionerism all the way...
Even then the median voter will be aged 50 still not 30
Taking into account both raw demographics and propensity to vote, I believe that the median voter is aged about 55. This value is likely to keep creeping slowly up for the foreseeable, because so many younger people aren't forming families for various reasons, not least the crippling cost. Yet another issue that can be put down to the full spectrum catastrophe that is the British property market.
Not that this is any real use to the Conservatives in the long run, because people are no longer moving rightwards as they age. Being the party of the landed interest - minted pensioner owner-occupiers, their heirs and rentiers - only wins elections so long as there are enough of those people around to keep voting for you. Those who have neither significant assets nor any realistic prospect of accruing them have nothing to conserve and, consequently, no use for conservatism.
By 55 plenty are starting to inherit property (and most should have bought a property with a mortgage well before then anyway).
I'm 56. I don't know many of my cohort who have lost both parents.
By 56 if your parents had you at 30 they would be 86. On average most are dead by 86
But my parents weren't 30.
Nor were many parents
I was 22 when our eldest was born
And I would just say @HYUFD is utterly obsessed with inheritance, when most people's estate will be greatly reduced by care fees for their parents
Some people seemingly value Ma & Pa, mostly as their personal Bank of The-World-Owes-Me-A-Living . . .
An absolutely Mediterranean twilight sky in Primrose Hill tonight….
Relatedly? -
There has been an outbreak of sea swimming in the North Sea after work at my place. It is warmer (more correctly less Baltic) than anyone can ever remember. Almost the entire staff are hitting the waters to cool off physically and mentally.
You mean there's actually somewhere round the English coastline where the water isn't full of raw sewage?
Only 15% want to rejoin is devastating for those who make a daily effort to promote everything pro EU
Huh? 15% of people who voted leave want to rejoin the entity they expressly voted to leave? That’s brilliant for Rejoiners. Because they are now in the Rejoin camp. Do you see how this works?
But Tory members are so high up the demographic curve that they are dying off at an alarming rate...
No they are not. Given life expectancies and the late-life care which your older Conservative Party member can no doubt afford, somebody mid-seventies will have about fifteen years in front of them. Unpleasant years, but still there and still capable of putting a cross on a postal vote form.
We keep saying that they are dying off, but there are A LOT of pensioners and for around the next ten-fifteen years they will remain the dominant force in British politics. When it switches it will switch fast as they begin to be outnumbered by younger votes in sufficient proportion to outweigh differential turnout by age, but until then it will be pensionerism all the way...
Even then the median voter will be aged 50 still not 30
Taking into account both raw demographics and propensity to vote, I believe that the median voter is aged about 55. This value is likely to keep creeping slowly up for the foreseeable, because so many younger people aren't forming families for various reasons, not least the crippling cost. Yet another issue that can be put down to the full spectrum catastrophe that is the British property market.
Not that this is any real use to the Conservatives in the long run, because people are no longer moving rightwards as they age. Being the party of the landed interest - minted pensioner owner-occupiers, their heirs and rentiers - only wins elections so long as there are enough of those people around to keep voting for you. Those who have neither significant assets nor any realistic prospect of accruing them have nothing to conserve and, consequently, no use for conservatism.
By 55 plenty are starting to inherit property (and most should have bought a property with a mortgage well before then anyway).
I'm 56. I don't know many of my cohort who have lost both parents.
By 56 if your parents had you at 30 they would be 86. On average most are dead by 86
But my parents weren't 30.
Nor were many parents
I was 22 when our eldest was born
And I would just say @HYUFD is utterly obsessed with inheritance, when most people's estate will be greatly reduced by care fees for their parents
And now average age of first child is over 30, so even more likely your parents will be dead by the time you reach 56.
Only 25% will need care home fees
Not in our family so far
Indeed our son in law has just paid nearly £300,000 for his parents care before they passed
Your love of inheritance is at times just distasteful
An absolutely Mediterranean twilight sky in Primrose Hill tonight….
Relatedly? -
There has been an outbreak of sea swimming in the North Sea after work at my place. It is warmer (more correctly less Baltic) than anyone can ever remember. Almost the entire staff are hitting the waters to cool off physically and mentally.
Apparently the seas around Britain are 5C warmer than normal. That takes them from “bracing” to almost Mediterranean - at least in somewhere like Cornwall
And in Northumberland from dangerously unbearable to plain f-ing freezing.
Only 15% want to rejoin is devastating for those who make a daily effort to promote everything pro EU
Only 15% of LEAVERS!, it's more than 70% or Remainers that want to Rejoin. Add in those wanting to rejoin the SM and its looking on the cards.
I simply do not see it on the cards any time soon
Me neither. Closer ties under a Starmer govt certainly but rejoin won’t happen anytime soon and if it did on what terms ? Would the EU accept us ?
So many countries would threaten a veto unless they got a special deal - France and Ireland in particular - we would find it entirely unacceptable. Plus the national humiliation. It’s not going to happen. Plus euro and Schengen and pooled debt and the rest
One day Labour might engineer some kind of “special relationship” which is tantamount to membership but even that would be immensely tricky
We will be like Switzerland. Constantly negotiating annoying little changes
Only 15% want to rejoin is devastating for those who make a daily effort to promote everything pro EU
Huh? 15% of people who voted leave want to rejoin the entity they expressly voted to leave? That’s brilliant for Rejoiners. Because they are now in the Rejoin camp. Do you see how this works?
Only 15% want to rejoin is devastating for those who make a daily effort to promote everything pro EU
Huh? 15% of people who voted leave want to rejoin the entity they expressly voted to leave? That’s brilliant for Rejoiners. Because they are now in the Rejoin camp. Do you see how this works?
I do and it does not change my view it is not likely in the foreseeable future
Reassuring this evening that the midsummer swallows are still looping overhead. And there are insects. If government wants a Brexit benefit then ban most insecticides and create maritime reserves around most of the coast.
Only 15% want to rejoin is devastating for those who make a daily effort to promote everything pro EU
15% of 2016 leavers, fortysomething overall.
Either Brexit delivers the goods for the British people (and neither EPC nor CPTPP looks like doing that) or it will die. And deservedly so.
Because even if you accept that 2016-9 created a duty for Britain to try Brexit, there comes a point on both time and numbers where the county shouldn't be a prisoner of a decision taken on one day in 2016.
Brexit won't die, because its happened. Its done, over, in the history books already.
Any duty of the decision taken in 2016 was fulfilled in full when we left on 31/01/2020 - that is history now. Finished, caput, done, over.
If we vote to rejoin now, that'd be entirely democratic.
However I would rate the odds of it happening at less than 5% personally. People have moved on. Labour will have bigger fish to fry trying to reshape the country how they want to in their time in power than reopening old wounds on relations with Europe.
Agreed. Also the pain of Brexit is all front loaded. It comes in the first 1-8 years. After that we will start to see genuine and obvious benefits (and once the emotional reaction has subsided)
Willingly going back into a superstate and handing back all the sovereignty will be much much harder, emotionally and politically, than Rejoiners think
The problem for the Tories is not just mortgage holders but renters as well.
Rents are high, the quality of properties is poor and renters are treated badly by a lot of landlords. That is a very real issue for the young who cannot buy.
It's not just building properties for sale that is needed but a decent rental sector as well.
Three of the people are from Surrey and the other from North London with a £950k mortgage.
One of the Surrey lot is:
Steven, 52, and his wife have an interest-only mortgage. They bought their house 20 years ago, initially on an interest rate of 4.8%.
Jesus H Christ.
A house bought 20 years ago should be all-but paid off by now, and even interest-only would have been bought at about 10% of the current price of houses anyway.
So if they're struggling they haven't just not paid the capital down, they've presumably remortgaged to extract their 'equity growth' and spent that money. 🤦♂️
Well that's bollocks. Average house price in June 2003 - £130,566; in May 2023 = £286,532 (and probably a bit lower in June 2023).
So not 10% but 45% of today's price.
People end up on interest-only mortgages for all sorts of reasons, not necessarily profligacy.
I was speaking to a 77 y.o. woman a couple of months ago, husband died after a very long illness leaving her in a £200k house with a £120k interest-only mortgage and her only income is the State Pension. She's going to have to sell of course, and find somewhere to rent if she can. Her mortgage payments currently exceed her total income.
Labour's honeymoon starts and ends on election day.
There won't be one because there's been no seduction. They'll come to power with a large majority yet with nobody expecting much. It's almost unheard of and a terrific platform to start governing. Just a few modest achievements and no mega fuck ups will be thrashing expectations and should lead to at least one further term.
Extraordinary statement from Zelensky's right hand man Mykhailo Podolyak warning on the threat to the nuclear power plant.
'Russia is unable to keep hold of Enerhodar in the medium term, and therefore is currently considering a large-scale terrorist attack at the ZNPP to stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive and create a depopulated sanitary gray zone, fixed for the next years, as part of the territorial status quo without ceasefire. This strategy also includes attempts to attack the dam in Kryvyi Rih with Kinzhals. Additional mining of the nuclear power plant, including the cooling ponds, is currently underway. Whether the Kremlin decides to go ahead with this scenario today depends solely on the reaction of the global world. The red lines have to be defined. The consequences must be announced. Not tomorrow. Today.'
Most of you seem to have your fingers in your ears. I worry our leaders do as well.
for Sunil and other PB trans(portation) advocates:
Take a virtual ride on Honolulu's soon-to-open new Skyline light rail system, heading west on segment from Aloha Stadium (near Pearl Harbor) to Kapolei.
Where’s good for a holiday in your part of the world SSI? Thinking of a road trip in the Northwest of my Wife’s homeland and my only visit was a brief one when taking a Greyhound from Vancouver to San Francisco.
How much time do you have, and how much road to you want to go tripping down (in a manner of speaking)?
Personally would be tempted to drive
> from Seattle to Port Angeles WA, then ferry to Victoria BC > from Vic via Swartz Bay > Tsawwassen ferry to Vancouver > from Vancouver to Banff via Trans-Canada & Coquihalla Highways to Banff NP > from Banff via Alberta to CN Waterton Lakes-US Glacier NP (> alternative from Van, take highway across southern BC just north of border to Crowsnest Pass, an amazing road crossing several mountain ranges interspersed with big lakes and valleys > from Waterton/Glacier west to Cour d'Alene ID then Spokane WA > from Spokane to Grand Coulee Dam and the not-to-be-missed Dry Falls > from Dry Falls to Wenatchee to Leavenworth to Stevens Pass and back to Seattle.
Plenty of alternatives along this general route.
For example, you can go from Seattle directly to Port Angeles via Bainbridge Island ferry; OR you can head down to Olympia, then west and north on US 101 to Pacific Coast then via Forks to PA from the west.
Oooh! That sounds promising! I may research that and follow up if I may.
Labour's honeymoon starts and ends on election day.
There won't be one because there's been no seduction. They'll come to power with a large majority yet with nobody expecting much. It's almost unheard of and a terrific platform to start governing. Just a few modest achievements and no mega fuck ups will be thrashing expectations and should lead to at least one further term.
Are you sure nobody will be expecting much ?
I don't see how the public sector unions don't demand a lot and very quickly.
the pain of Brexit is all front loaded. It comes in the first 1-8 years. After that we will start to see genuine and obvious benefits (and once the emotional reaction has subsided)
Willingly going back into a superstate and handing back all the sovereignty will be much much harder, emotionally and politically, than Rejoiners think
Labour's honeymoon starts and ends on election day.
There won't be one because there's been no seduction. They'll come to power with a large majority yet with nobody expecting much. It's almost unheard of and a terrific platform to start governing. Just a few modest achievements and no mega fuck ups will be thrashing expectations and should lead to at least one further term.
On the interest rates it is funny as I remember it's not that long ago the regulator was asking if our systems and infrastructure would be able to handle a negative interest rate. Feels like a long time ago but in reality it was, what, less than 2 years ago?
It's worth remembering that, excellent as she was at wielding a ceremonial sword, Penny Mordaunt was all over the place during the last-but-one leadership contest. Essentially, the more she spoke, the more her support faltered.
The last thing the Tories need is another vacuous blonde with no achievements to their name but with a great capacity for self-promotion, telling lies and being photographed. Aren't Johnson and Truss enough for them?
Badenoch had an an opportunity with the Post Office to do something worthwhile and just but has fluffed it.
I tend to the @Heathener view - that either because of disgust and anger or weariness with the whole shambolic lot of them the Tories could do very badly indeed. Why should anyone vote for a party which does not know its arse from its elbow.
Your dislike of Mordaunt - and the reasons you give for it are stupid IMV.
"vacuous blonde" - wtf does hair colour have to do with it? You'd be the first person calling a man sexist for saying that. Vacuous - ditto.
'no achievements to their name' - the same is true for most politicians. Blair, for instance. Or Cameron.
'capacity for self-promotion' - ditto.
'telling lies' - ditto. And I think you're being a little unfair in that respect as well.
'being photographed' - a surprising number of politicians fail even that test.
"Blonde" is an accurate description not a criticism. Who are you to tell people they can't use adjectives.
"Vacuous" - that is an accurate description of how she came across in the debates when she stood for party leader last time: her answers to questions were feeble, she had no policy positions to put forward, all she said was giddy.
"Self-promotion" - that is what she is good at hence all the nice articles about her. But there is no substance that I can see - and in that regard she seems rather more similar to Truss and Johnson and indeed Sunak than the break with them that is needed.
"Telling lies" - yes she lied over Brexit and her support for Brexit is not a sign of good judgment and she lied about what she tried to do over womens rights issues. She also dissembled about her time in the Navy. Small lies maybe but it is the fact that her default seems to be to lie when challenged which is the problem. Again it is reminiscent of Johnson. Integrity is something the Tories badly need.
She supported Truss pretty vocally during her ill-fated government and has Andrea Leadsom as her main advisor, which does not strike me as exhibiting good judgment. What achievements had she had in office?
As far as I can see the main reason so many men here like her is because they have the hots for her.
She does have presence which Sunak does not have. She can do jokes. Her response on the Privileges Committee report was well judged. So was Mrs May's and no-one is sugge
It's worth remembering that, excellent as she was at wielding a ceremonial sword, Penny Mordaunt was all over the place during the last-but-one leadership contest. Essentially, the more she spoke, the more her support faltered.
The last thing the Tories need is another vacuous blonde with no achievements to their name but with a great capacity for self-promotion, telling lies and being photographed. Aren't Johnson and Truss enough for them?
Badenoch had an an opportunity with the Post Office to do something worthwhile and just but has fluffed it.
I tend to the @Heathener view - that either because of disgust and anger or weariness with the whole shambolic lot of them the Tories could do very badly indeed. Why should anyone vote for a party which does not know its arse from its elbow.
Your dislike of Mordaunt - and the reasons you give for it are stupid IMV.
"vacuous blonde" - wtf does hair colour have to do with it? You'd be the first person calling a man sexist for saying that. Vacuous - ditto.
'no achievements to their name' - the same is true for most politicians. Blair, for instance. Or Cameron.
'capacity for self-promotion' - ditto.
'telling lies' - ditto. And I think you're being a little unfair in that respect as well.
'being photographed' - a surprising number of politicians fail even that test.
"Blonde" is an accurate description not a criticism. Who are you to tell people they can't use adjectives.
"Vacuous" - that is an accurate description of how she came across in the debates when she stood for party leader last time: her answers to questions were feeble, she had no policy positions to put forward, all she said was giddy.
"Self-promotion" - that is what she is good at hence all the nice articles about her. But there is no substance that I can see - and in that regard she seems rather more similar to Truss and Johnson and indeed Sunak than the break with them that is needed.
"Telling lies" - yes she lied over Brexit and her support for Brexit is not a sign of good judgment and she lied about what she tried to do over womens rights issues. She also dissembled about her time in the Navy. Small lies maybe but it is the fact that her default seems to be to lie when challenged which is the problem. Again it is reminiscent of Johnson. Integrity is something the Tories badly need.
She supported Truss pretty vocally during her ill-fated government and has Andrea Leadsom as her main advisor, which does not strike me as exhibiting good judgment. What achievements has she had in office?
As far as I can see the main reason so many men here like her is because they have the hots for her.
She does have presence which Sunak does not have. She can do jokes. Her response on the Privileges Committee report was well judged. So was Mrs May's and no-one is suggesting her.
But really it is not enough. Nowhere near. The current batch of senior wannabe leader Tories are all cut from the same cloth. The next leader with a chance of winning will be from the next generation not this one. They will need to be because they will need that time to rethink what Conservatism means and can offer in the 2030's and 2040's. I see no sign that Mordaunt or anyone else being touted is even beginning to think about this.
Oh and I criticise both men and women for how they look and dress because I think that when people go out in public they should make an effort to be presentable at the very least and elegant at best. If you cannot be bothered to make that effort stay at home.
Oh come off it, you can't call someone a "vacuous blonde" and then not expect for it to be called out as sexist. It's an old misogynistic trope. "But adjectives" is a pretty feeble response.
Bollocks. Johnson, Truss and Mordaunt are all in my view vacuous blondes. I have given you chapter and verse on why I think Mordaunt is vacuous and have done the same for Johnson as well, repeatedly, in numerous headers since 2018. Truss seemed to show some cunning but I decided that she was ghastly and said so.
And I am not taking any lessons on sexism from the misogynists on here who have attacked me repeatedly because I have been one of the few who has spoken up for women's rights.
You can't prove a specific by recourse to the general. You may believe you have a strong track record of standing up for women's rights, and you may be correct in that, but that doesn't mean it's impossible for you to slip up on a comment. If anyone believes themselves to be incapable of error because of a strong track record, they are kidding themselves. That's the kind of essentialist error that leads good people into hubris.
"A significant proportion of the population will see their savings wiped out because of the rise in interest rates and thus higher mortgage repayments."
A question for those who have recently taken out a mortgage.
Post the Financial Crisis the FCA introduced affordability tests. Do those tests check whether the mortgage is affordable at higher interest rates or only at the rate then chosen?
Because if not there would seem to be something wrong with those rules. But if so were the banks applying them or is it that people could afford the mortgages even if interest rates went higher?
I'm trying to see whether there is a regulatory failure here or not.
Thanks.
I remortgaged 18 months ago.
There was no question as to how I would afford a rise in interest rates.
Mind you, I was fixing for five years because not being stupid I thought rates would go up quite fast.
It sounds like a bit of a regulatory failure to me but will look into it further.
They put something in the mortgage agreement small-print that if interest rates went up to 9% your repayments would be X (which of course is a ridiculous amount) and you need to be confident you could still afford it.
Labour's honeymoon starts and ends on election day.
A widespread belief amongst Conservatives in 1997, too ISTR.
Yeah, but this decade is much more like the 1970s than the 1990s/2000s
As I've been saying for about 18 months the next election is 1974 not 1997.
Not convinced. This decade has the potential to be much more like 1997.
Economically we're at full employment, not mass unemployment like the 1970s/80s.
The housing bubble if it bursts will be painful while it happens but afterwards would be a fantastic correction to the economy that would then allow people opportunities currently denied to them and a feelgood factor accompanying it as a result afterwards, like the 90s.
Inflation is likely to fall away and real wage growth should return.
The next 18 months may be tough, especially from those who lose out from the bubble bursting, but the five years afterwards could be much more positive.
In 10 years time Tories will be telling us how the extended period of rapidly improving economy under Labour is all down to foundations laid by Johnson Truss and Sunak 😂
And they'd be right
Albeit that Sunak has fought those foundations every step of the way and they're happening despite him not because of him.
The only slight downside I can see to a massive Labour majority is the constant sniping from the sides that you and a few others will indulge in.
Politico Congressional Minutes - The House Ethics Committee issued a remarkable update on its investigation into Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.), announcing more than 30 subpoenas.
The panel announced its progress Thursday, nearly two months after Santos was indicted on multiple federal charges.
What's happening: The House Ethics Committee, which usually heeds Justice Department requests to put its investigations on ice while prosecutors work a case, is instead forging ahead on the Santos matter.
“The Committee is aware of the risks associated with dual investigations and is in communication with the Department of Justice to mitigate the potential risks while still meeting the Committee’s obligations to safeguard the integrity of the House,” the panel's chair Rep. Michael Guest (R-Miss.) and ranking member Susan Wild (D-Pa.) said in a statement on Thursday.
Allegations against Santos before the ethics committee include violation of conflict-of-interest laws, sexual misconduct towards someone seeking employment in his congressional office, illegal campaign-related actions and failure to disclose required information in statements filed to the House.
When it started: The ethics panel first officially established an investigative subcommittee to probe into allegations against Santos back on Feb. 28 and, in addition to the latest subpoenas, has put out “more than 40 voluntary requests for information.” The committee is evenly split between Republicans and Democrats.
IF yours truly was a Republican, and esp. a GOP congressperson, would want George Santos (or even better, resigned due to looming expulsion) in order to
> get new Republican replacement via special election, and in place before 2024. > help GOP congresspeople (& others) in swing suburban districts (& states) with swing voters.
the pain of Brexit is all front loaded. It comes in the first 1-8 years. After that we will start to see genuine and obvious benefits (and once the emotional reaction has subsided)
Willingly going back into a superstate and handing back all the sovereignty will be much much harder, emotionally and politically, than Rejoiners think
I'm starting to think a wipeout is possible, or it will be if Farage comes on the pitch in the 90th minute. I'm hearing core Conservatives giving up now - who are solid base.
Even my Dad, who's so staunch he makes @HYUFD look like a floating voter, has said they don't deserve another term. And I agreed with him.
He's never come close to saying anything like that before in his life.
I agree Casino. Possibly for different reasons to yourself and your dad (I know you're more exercised by the woke thing, I'm not) but quite simply today's Conservatives don't deserve our votes.
That's not to say I relish a Labour government, I don't. But hopefully some solid years of Opposition will bring us a Tory Opposition worthy of being in Government.
And if we have to have a Labour Government, then could be worse than Starmer.
Starmer is left-wing as is his prospectus. His MPs are of a poor calibre and his party is prone to authoritarianism, and its own mad ideological foibles.
There is absolutely nothing I relish about a Labour government and I think its going to do a lot of damage.
"A significant proportion of the population will see their savings wiped out because of the rise in interest rates and thus higher mortgage repayments."
A question for those who have recently taken out a mortgage.
Post the Financial Crisis the FCA introduced affordability tests. Do those tests check whether the mortgage is affordable at higher interest rates or only at the rate then chosen?
Because if not there would seem to be something wrong with those rules. But if so were the banks applying them or is it that people could afford the mortgages even if interest rates went higher?
I'm trying to see whether there is a regulatory failure here or not.
Thanks.
I remortgaged 18 months ago.
There was no question as to how I would afford a rise in interest rates.
Mind you, I was fixing for five years because not being stupid I thought rates would go up quite fast.
It sounds like a bit of a regulatory failure to me but will look into it further.
They put something in the mortgage agreement small-print that if interest rates went up to 9% your repayments would be X (which of course is a ridiculous amount) and you need to be confident you could still afford it.
That's it.
Posted earlier. The FCA rules:
(1) Under MCOB 11.6.5R , in taking account of likely future interest rate increases for the purposes of its assessment of whether the customer will be able to pay the sums due, a mortgage lender must consider the likely future interest rates over a minimum period of five years from the expected start of the term of the regulated mortgage contract (or variation), unless the interest rate under the regulated mortgage contract is fixed for a period of five years or more from that time, or for the duration of the regulated mortgage contract (or variation), if less than five years. (2) In coming to a view as to likely future interest rates, a mortgage lender must have regard to: (a) market expectations; and (b) any prevailing Financial Policy Committee recommendation on appropriate interest-rate stress tests; and must be able to justify the basis it uses by reference to (a) and (b). (3) For the purposes of this rule, even if the basis used by the mortgage lender in (2) indicates that interest rates are likely to fall, or to rise by less than 1%, during the first five years of the regulated mortgage contract (or variation), a mortgage lender must assume that interest rates will rise by a minimum of 1% over that period.
the pain of Brexit is all front loaded. It comes in the first 1-8 years. After that we will start to see genuine and obvious benefits (and once the emotional reaction has subsided)
Willingly going back into a superstate and handing back all the sovereignty will be much much harder, emotionally and politically, than Rejoiners think
The problem for the Tories is not just mortgage holders but renters as well.
Rents are high, the quality of properties is poor and renters are treated badly by a lot of landlords. That is a very real issue for the young who cannot buy.
It's not just building properties for sale that is needed but a decent rental sector as well.
@Leon was asking Labour supporters what they really want from Starmer and the responses were a bit ... meh.
But I think that if he really does something about housing - building more good quality efficient carbon neutral homes both for sale and rental - then that could be really transformative for very many voters and also do something for the creation of a skilled workforce.
That's what I would focus on were I a Labour PM or, frankly, any sort of PM.
for Sunil and other PB trans(portation) advocates:
Take a virtual ride on Honolulu's soon-to-open new Skyline light rail system, heading west on segment from Aloha Stadium (near Pearl Harbor) to Kapolei.
Where’s good for a holiday in your part of the world SSI? Thinking of a road trip in the Northwest of my Wife’s homeland and my only visit was a brief one when taking a Greyhound from Vancouver to San Francisco.
How much time do you have, and how much road to you want to go tripping down (in a manner of speaking)?
Personally would be tempted to drive
> from Seattle to Port Angeles WA, then ferry to Victoria BC > from Vic via Swartz Bay > Tsawwassen ferry to Vancouver > from Vancouver to Banff via Trans-Canada & Coquihalla Highways to Banff NP > from Banff via Alberta to CN Waterton Lakes-US Glacier NP (> alternative from Van, take highway across southern BC just north of border to Crowsnest Pass, an amazing road crossing several mountain ranges interspersed with big lakes and valleys > from Waterton/Glacier west to Cour d'Alene ID then Spokane WA > from Spokane to Grand Coulee Dam and the not-to-be-missed Dry Falls > from Dry Falls to Wenatchee to Leavenworth to Stevens Pass and back to Seattle.
Plenty of alternatives along this general route.
For example, you can go from Seattle directly to Port Angeles via Bainbridge Island ferry; OR you can head down to Olympia, then west and north on US 101 to Pacific Coast then via Forks to PA from the west.
Oooh! That sounds promising! I may research that and follow up if I may.
Can heartily recommend most of that. The Schwartz Bay - Tsawwassen ferry must be the world's most scenic (it was my frequent route to Vancouver). If you have a car, a drive up Vancouver Island to the very top at Port Hardy is wonderfully scenic. (365 miles). If you don't Vancouver Banff by train has to one of the great rail journeys. (Just make sure you get the high Rockies in daylight).
Edit: A trip north to the Arctic is also feasible from Banff. The lakes get bigger. The "towns" get smaller and farther apart. Then you are in true wilderness.
Extraordinary statement from Zelensky's right hand man Mykhailo Podolyak warning on the threat to the nuclear power plant.
'Russia is unable to keep hold of Enerhodar in the medium term, and therefore is currently considering a large-scale terrorist attack at the ZNPP to stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive and create a depopulated sanitary gray zone, fixed for the next years, as part of the territorial status quo without ceasefire. This strategy also includes attempts to attack the dam in Kryvyi Rih with Kinzhals. Additional mining of the nuclear power plant, including the cooling ponds, is currently underway. Whether the Kremlin decides to go ahead with this scenario today depends solely on the reaction of the global world. The red lines have to be defined. The consequences must be announced. Not tomorrow. Today.'
Most of you seem to have your fingers in your ears. I worry our leaders do as well.
My first thought is that Putin wouldn't be mad enough to do that, but then I also didn't think he'd be mad enough to invade in the first place.
The problem for the Tories is not just mortgage holders but renters as well.
Rents are high, the quality of properties is poor and renters are treated badly by a lot of landlords. That is a very real issue for the young who cannot buy.
It's not just building properties for sale that is needed but a decent rental sector as well.
It is a vicious circle as buy to let landlords either sell up reducing supply or increase rents in line with their mortgage costs
Even at 300,000 homes a year it will take years when the crisis is now
Starmer is going to have a tough few years as interest rates are heading up towards 6% with no easing before 2025
The Fed have said tonight the US will also need further interest rate increases this year
"A significant proportion of the population will see their savings wiped out because of the rise in interest rates and thus higher mortgage repayments."
A question for those who have recently taken out a mortgage.
Post the Financial Crisis the FCA introduced affordability tests. Do those tests check whether the mortgage is affordable at higher interest rates or only at the rate then chosen?
Because if not there would seem to be something wrong with those rules. But if so were the banks applying them or is it that people could afford the mortgages even if interest rates went higher?
I'm trying to see whether there is a regulatory failure here or not.
Thanks.
I remortgaged 18 months ago.
There was no question as to how I would afford a rise in interest rates.
Mind you, I was fixing for five years because not being stupid I thought rates would go up quite fast.
It sounds like a bit of a regulatory failure to me but will look into it further.
They put something in the mortgage agreement small-print that if interest rates went up to 9% your repayments would be X (which of course is a ridiculous amount) and you need to be confident you could still afford it.
That's it.
Posted earlier. The FCA rules:
(1) Under MCOB 11.6.5R , in taking account of likely future interest rate increases for the purposes of its assessment of whether the customer will be able to pay the sums due, a mortgage lender must consider the likely future interest rates over a minimum period of five years from the expected start of the term of the regulated mortgage contract (or variation), unless the interest rate under the regulated mortgage contract is fixed for a period of five years or more from that time, or for the duration of the regulated mortgage contract (or variation), if less than five years. (2) In coming to a view as to likely future interest rates, a mortgage lender must have regard to: (a) market expectations; and (b) any prevailing Financial Policy Committee recommendation on appropriate interest-rate stress tests; and must be able to justify the basis it uses by reference to (a) and (b). (3) For the purposes of this rule, even if the basis used by the mortgage lender in (2) indicates that interest rates are likely to fall, or to rise by less than 1%, during the first five years of the regulated mortgage contract (or variation), a mortgage lender must assume that interest rates will rise by a minimum of 1% over that period.
Only 15% want to rejoin is devastating for those who make a daily effort to promote everything pro EU
Only 15% of LEAVERS!, it's more than 70% or Remainers that want to Rejoin. Add in those wanting to rejoin the SM and its looking on the cards.
Genuine question.
Would you want to rejoin an EU where radical right parties were in the driving seat? I’m
Yes, because that's democracy and they are sovereign states, and anyway, I think the fashion for right wing populists is on the turn.
I have long said that it is likely to be the Conservatives reverting to their longstanding pre 2016 policy of EU membership that takes us back in. Indeed I might even vote for them if they put it in their manifesto.
An absolutely Mediterranean twilight sky in Primrose Hill tonight….
Relatedly? -
3 separate causes:
- AMOC (Atlantic Méridional Overturning circulation) is in positive phase - North Atlantic Oscillation has been negative (though not so much now) with clear skies and strong insolation over the North Atlantic - The UN has banned sulphur in Marine fuels meaning ship emissions of cooling sulphites have collapsed (so called terminal warming)
Very interesting situation in the North Atlantic currently.
It is striking that, in terms of surface area x temperature rise, it shows up as a far bigger effect than El Niño itself.
Labour's honeymoon starts and ends on election day.
There won't be one because there's been no seduction. They'll come to power with a large majority yet with nobody expecting much. It's almost unheard of and a terrific platform to start governing. Just a few modest achievements and no mega fuck ups will be thrashing expectations and should lead to at least one further term.
A large majority? Really?
Consensus on here and elsewhere seems to be heading that way.
Of course, sentiment might swing back... or strengthen further... Events, dear boy, events.
Labour's honeymoon starts and ends on election day.
A widespread belief amongst Conservatives in 1997, too ISTR.
Yeah, but this decade is much more like the 1970s than the 1990s/2000s
As I've been saying for about 18 months the next election is 1974 not 1997.
Not convinced. This decade has the potential to be much more like 1997.
Economically we're at full employment, not mass unemployment like the 1970s/80s.
The housing bubble if it bursts will be painful while it happens but afterwards would be a fantastic correction to the economy that would then allow people opportunities currently denied to them and a feelgood factor accompanying it as a result afterwards, like the 90s.
Inflation is likely to fall away and real wage growth should return.
The next 18 months may be tough, especially from those who lose out from the bubble bursting, but the five years afterwards could be much more positive.
In 10 years time Tories will be telling us how the extended period of rapidly improving economy under Labour is all down to foundations laid by Johnson Truss and Sunak 😂
And they'd be right
Albeit that Sunak has fought those foundations every step of the way and they're happening despite him not because of him.
The only slight downside I can see to a massive Labour majority is the constant sniping from the sides that you and a few others will indulge in.
The downside to a massive Labour majority is the speed with which they’d become corrupt. Labour is full of rotten people (as are the Conservatives). A big majority means they can get away with their rottenness.
"A significant proportion of the population will see their savings wiped out because of the rise in interest rates and thus higher mortgage repayments."
A question for those who have recently taken out a mortgage.
Post the Financial Crisis the FCA introduced affordability tests. Do those tests check whether the mortgage is affordable at higher interest rates or only at the rate then chosen?
Because if not there would seem to be something wrong with those rules. But if so were the banks applying them or is it that people could afford the mortgages even if interest rates went higher?
I'm trying to see whether there is a regulatory failure here or not.
Thanks.
I remortgaged 18 months ago.
There was no question as to how I would afford a rise in interest rates.
Mind you, I was fixing for five years because not being stupid I thought rates would go up quite fast.
It sounds like a bit of a regulatory failure to me but will look into it further.
They put something in the mortgage agreement small-print that if interest rates went up to 9% your repayments would be X (which of course is a ridiculous amount) and you need to be confident you could still afford it.
The problem for the Tories is not just mortgage holders but renters as well.
Rents are high, the quality of properties is poor and renters are treated badly by a lot of landlords. That is a very real issue for the young who cannot buy.
It's not just building properties for sale that is needed but a decent rental sector as well.
@Leon was asking Labour supporters what they really want from Starmer and the responses were a bit ... meh.
But I think that if he really does something about housing - building more good quality efficient carbon neutral homes both for sale and rental - then that could be really transformative for very many voters and also do something for the creation of a skilled workforce.
That's what I would focus on were I a Labour PM or, frankly, any sort of PM.
That's not what you would get out of the Tories because it's not in the interest of their core vote. When their core vote becomes too small ever to get them elected again then they'll have to rethink, but not before.
It's what Labour ought to be doing, so whether they build on the required scale or not is going to tell us everything we need to know about how committed they are to helping their own supporters - or if they're in thrall to the same sclerotic, rotten economic settlement, dominated by aged, rich, largely Southern English Nimbies, as the Conservatives are.
An absolutely Mediterranean twilight sky in Primrose Hill tonight….
Relatedly? -
3 separate causes:
- AMOC (Atlantic Méridional Overturning circulation) is in positive phase - North Atlantic Oscillation has been negative (though not so much now) with clear skies and strong insolation over the North Atlantic - The UN has banned sulphur in Marine fuels meaning ship emissions of cooling sulphites have collapsed (so called terminal warming)
Very interesting situation in the North Atlantic currently.
It is striking that, in terms of surface area x temperature rise, it shows up as a far bigger effect than El Niño itself.
Somewhat distorted by map projection though. El Niño (even in its current nascent state) is a bigger phenomenon, and deeper.
for Sunil and other PB trans(portation) advocates:
Take a virtual ride on Honolulu's soon-to-open new Skyline light rail system, heading west on segment from Aloha Stadium (near Pearl Harbor) to Kapolei.
Where’s good for a holiday in your part of the world SSI? Thinking of a road trip in the Northwest of my Wife’s homeland and my only visit was a brief one when taking a Greyhound from Vancouver to San Francisco.
How much time do you have, and how much road to you want to go tripping down (in a manner of speaking)?
Personally would be tempted to drive
> from Seattle to Port Angeles WA, then ferry to Victoria BC > from Vic via Swartz Bay > Tsawwassen ferry to Vancouver > from Vancouver to Banff via Trans-Canada & Coquihalla Highways to Banff NP > from Banff via Alberta to CN Waterton Lakes-US Glacier NP (> alternative from Van, take highway across southern BC just north of border to Crowsnest Pass, an amazing road crossing several mountain ranges interspersed with big lakes and valleys > from Waterton/Glacier west to Cour d'Alene ID then Spokane WA > from Spokane to Grand Coulee Dam and the not-to-be-missed Dry Falls > from Dry Falls to Wenatchee to Leavenworth to Stevens Pass and back to Seattle.
Plenty of alternatives along this general route.
For example, you can go from Seattle directly to Port Angeles via Bainbridge Island ferry; OR you can head down to Olympia, then west and north on US 101 to Pacific Coast then via Forks to PA from the west.
Oooh! That sounds promising! I may research that and follow up if I may.
@SeaShantyIrish2 what is a rough time and distance estimate for that please? My son lives in Banff and I need to fit a road trip around him.
the pain of Brexit is all front loaded. It comes in the first 1-8 years. After that we will start to see genuine and obvious benefits (and once the emotional reaction has subsided)
Willingly going back into a superstate and handing back all the sovereignty will be much much harder, emotionally and politically, than Rejoiners think
Rage, rage against the dying of the light...
Rage, rage against the dying of the Right...
The irony though is that if we were to rejoin the EU we'd get more, not less, nationalist sentiment.
Only 15% want to rejoin is devastating for those who make a daily effort to promote everything pro EU
Only 15% of LEAVERS!, it's more than 70% or Remainers that want to Rejoin. Add in those wanting to rejoin the SM and its looking on the cards.
Genuine question.
Would you want to rejoin an EU where radical right parties were in the driving seat? I’m
Yes, because that's democracy and they are sovereign states, and anyway, I think the fashion for right wing populists is on the turn.
I have long said that it is likely to be the Conservatives reverting to their longstanding pre 2016 policy of EU membership
Yeah. I wouldn't be surprised if it were the Tories in Opposition who will first suggest Rejoin. Wouldn't be shocked to see them pushing for a referendum to de-stabilise Labour in a decade. They are that cynical.
Labour's honeymoon starts and ends on election day.
A widespread belief amongst Conservatives in 1997, too ISTR.
Yeah, but this decade is much more like the 1970s than the 1990s/2000s
As I've been saying for about 18 months the next election is 1974 not 1997.
Not convinced. This decade has the potential to be much more like 1997.
Economically we're at full employment, not mass unemployment like the 1970s/80s.
The housing bubble if it bursts will be painful while it happens but afterwards would be a fantastic correction to the economy that would then allow people opportunities currently denied to them and a feelgood factor accompanying it as a result afterwards, like the 90s.
Inflation is likely to fall away and real wage growth should return.
The next 18 months may be tough, especially from those who lose out from the bubble bursting, but the five years afterwards could be much more positive.
In 10 years time Tories will be telling us how the extended period of rapidly improving economy under Labour is all down to foundations laid by Johnson Truss and Sunak 😂
And they'd be right
Albeit that Sunak has fought those foundations every step of the way and they're happening despite him not because of him.
The only slight downside I can see to a massive Labour majority is the constant sniping from the sides that you and a few others will indulge in.
The downside to a massive Labour majority is the speed with which they’d become corrupt. Labour is full of rotten people (as are the Conservatives). A big majority means they can get away with their rottenness.
The problem for the Tories is not just mortgage holders but renters as well.
Rents are high, the quality of properties is poor and renters are treated badly by a lot of landlords. That is a very real issue for the young who cannot buy.
It's not just building properties for sale that is needed but a decent rental sector as well.
@Leon was asking Labour supporters what they really want from Starmer and the responses were a bit ... meh.
But I think that if he really does something about housing - building more good quality efficient carbon neutral homes both for sale and rental - then that could be really transformative for very many voters and also do something for the creation of a skilled workforce.
That's what I would focus on were I a Labour PM or, frankly, any sort of PM.
SNP already building plenty of council housing, supported after a pause by Labour, in Scotland. Decent stuff, as DavidL and I have both noticed. Though probably not enough, by a factor of 2, in at least one commentator's opinion, it is at least something.
Only 15% want to rejoin is devastating for those who make a daily effort to promote everything pro EU
Only 15% of LEAVERS!, it's more than 70% or Remainers that want to Rejoin. Add in those wanting to rejoin the SM and its looking on the cards.
Genuine question.
Would you want to rejoin an EU where radical right parties were in the driving seat? I’m
Yes, because that's democracy and they are sovereign states, and anyway, I think the fashion for right wing populists is on the turn.
I have long said that it is likely to be the Conservatives reverting to their longstanding pre 2016 policy of EU membership that takes us back in. Indeed I might even vote for them if they put it in their manifesto.
Yet it was only fear of the Warsaw Pact that made the Conservatives turn towards EU membership.
Extraordinary statement from Zelensky's right hand man Mykhailo Podolyak warning on the threat to the nuclear power plant.
'Russia is unable to keep hold of Enerhodar in the medium term, and therefore is currently considering a large-scale terrorist attack at the ZNPP to stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive and create a depopulated sanitary gray zone, fixed for the next years, as part of the territorial status quo without ceasefire. This strategy also includes attempts to attack the dam in Kryvyi Rih with Kinzhals. Additional mining of the nuclear power plant, including the cooling ponds, is currently underway. Whether the Kremlin decides to go ahead with this scenario today depends solely on the reaction of the global world. The red lines have to be defined. The consequences must be announced. Not tomorrow. Today.'
Most of you seem to have your fingers in your ears. I worry our leaders do as well.
My first thought is that Putin wouldn't be mad enough to do that, but then I also didn't think he'd be mad enough to invade in the first place.
I think he would be. His strategy is Hitler's Nero strategy on acid.
I wonder if the Chinese would be willing to rein him in. Because he won't listen to anyone else.
the pain of Brexit is all front loaded. It comes in the first 1-8 years. After that we will start to see genuine and obvious benefits (and once the emotional reaction has subsided)
Willingly going back into a superstate and handing back all the sovereignty will be much much harder, emotionally and politically, than Rejoiners think
Rage, rage against the dying of the light...
Rage, rage against the dying of the Right...
The irony though is that if we were to rejoin the EU we'd get more, not less, nationalist sentiment.
One of the true upsides of Brexit does seem to be a reduction in anti-immigration sentiment.
Reassuring this evening that the midsummer swallows are still looping overhead. And there are insects. If government wants a Brexit benefit then ban most insecticides and create maritime reserves around most of the coast.
I always find it a little sad that before we even reach the longest day most of the cuckoos are already on their way back across France to Africa. Such an iconic bird and yet it is here for such a short time. Just 8 weeks out of each year.
Labour's honeymoon starts and ends on election day.
There won't be one because there's been no seduction. They'll come to power with a large majority yet with nobody expecting much. It's almost unheard of and a terrific platform to start governing. Just a few modest achievements and no mega fuck ups will be thrashing expectations and should lead to at least one further term.
A large majority? Really?
Consensus on here and elsewhere seems to be heading that way.
Of course, sentiment might swing back... or strengthen further... Events, dear boy, events.
I mean to get a majority of one Labour needs to win 123 seats... That is an absolutely enormous number of seats to win historically . An opposition just doesn't go from 202 seats to a landslide majority in one go.
It's not going to happen.
Labour will probably scrape a majority but it'll be from 1-20 at best IMO.
An absolutely Mediterranean twilight sky in Primrose Hill tonight….
Relatedly? -
There has been an outbreak of sea swimming in the North Sea after work at my place. It is warmer (more correctly less Baltic) than anyone can ever remember. Almost the entire staff are hitting the waters to cool off physically and mentally.
You mean there's actually somewhere round the English coastline where the water isn't full of raw sewage?
Can you forage that samphire? It's up there with fresh asparagus among the very best vegetables in my book.
On which subject, we cut our last asparagus of the year yesterday. We cut the first on 24th April and we've had super-fresh asparagus pretty much every other day since, so sad to see it stop but the poor plants will need time to recover now.
Still, the peas and courgettes have started cropping!
Only 15% want to rejoin is devastating for those who make a daily effort to promote everything pro EU
Only 15% of LEAVERS!, it's more than 70% or Remainers that want to Rejoin. Add in those wanting to rejoin the SM and its looking on the cards.
Genuine question.
Would you want to rejoin an EU where radical right parties were in the driving seat? I’m
Yes, because that's democracy and they are sovereign states, and anyway, I think the fashion for right wing populists is on the turn.
I have long said that it is likely to be the Conservatives reverting to their longstanding pre 2016 policy of EU membership
Yeah. I wouldn't be surprised if it were the Tories in Opposition who will first suggest Rejoin. Wouldn't be shocked to see them pushing for a referendum to de-stabilise Labour in a decade. They are that cynical.
The Tories being first to switch to a rejoin position would be a case of "only Nixon could go to China" if ever there was one. And they would get my vote if they did. It would be a radical reconstitution of the party for that to happen, which could only happen after a catastrophic electoral implosion. Hence my profound hopes that they get completely mullered and soon.
It's worth remembering that, excellent as she was at wielding a ceremonial sword, Penny Mordaunt was all over the place during the last-but-one leadership contest. Essentially, the more she spoke, the more her support faltered.
The last thing the Tories need is another vacuous blonde with no achievements to their name but with a great capacity for self-promotion, telling lies and being photographed. Aren't Johnson and Truss enough for them?
Badenoch had an an opportunity with the Post Office to do something worthwhile and just but has fluffed it.
I tend to the @Heathener view - that either because of disgust and anger or weariness with the whole shambolic lot of them the Tories could do very badly indeed. Why should anyone vote for a party which does not know its arse from its elbow.
Your dislike of Mordaunt - and the reasons you give for it are stupid IMV.
"vacuous blonde" - wtf does hair colour have to do with it? You'd be the first person calling a man sexist for saying that. Vacuous - ditto.
'no achievements to their name' - the same is true for most politicians. Blair, for instance. Or Cameron.
'capacity for self-promotion' - ditto.
'telling lies' - ditto. And I think you're being a little unfair in that respect as well.
'being photographed' - a surprising number of politicians fail even that test.
"Blonde" is an accurate description not a criticism. Who are you to tell people they can't use adjectives.
"Vacuous" - that is an accurate description of how she came across in the debates when she stood for party leader last time: her answers to questions were feeble, she had no policy positions to put forward, all she said was giddy.
"Self-promotion" - that is what she is good at hence all the nice articles about her. But there is no substance that I can see - and in that regard she seems rather more similar to Truss and Johnson and indeed Sunak than the break with them that is needed.
"Telling lies" - yes she lied over Brexit and her support for Brexit is not a sign of good judgment and she lied about what she tried to do over womens rights issues. She also dissembled about her time in the Navy. Small lies maybe but it is the fact that her default seems to be to lie when challenged which is the problem. Again it is reminiscent of Johnson. Integrity is something the Tories badly need.
She supported Truss pretty vocally during her ill-fated government and has Andrea Leadsom as her main advisor, which does not strike me as exhibiting good judgment. What achievements had she had in office?
As far as I can see the main reason so many men here like her is because they have the hots for her.
She does have presence which Sunak does not have. She can do jokes. Her response on the Privileges Committee report was well judged. So was Mrs May's and no-one is sugge
It's worth remembering that, excellent as she was at wielding a ceremonial sword, Penny Mordaunt was all over the place during the last-but-one leadership contest. Essentially, the more she spoke, the more her support faltered.
The last thing the Tories need is another vacuous blonde with no achievements to their name but with a great capacity for self-promotion, telling lies and being photographed. Aren't Johnson and Truss enough for them?
Badenoch had an an opportunity with the Post Office to do something worthwhile and just but has fluffed it.
I tend to the @Heathener view - that either because of disgust and anger or weariness with the whole shambolic lot of them the Tories could do very badly indeed. Why should anyone vote for a party which does not know its arse from its elbow.
Your dislike of Mordaunt - and the reasons you give for it are stupid IMV.
"vacuous blonde" - wtf does hair colour have to do with it? You'd be the first person calling a man sexist for saying that. Vacuous - ditto.
'no achievements to their name' - the same is true for most politicians. Blair, for instance. Or Cameron.
'capacity for self-promotion' - ditto.
'telling lies' - ditto. And I think you're being a little unfair in that respect as well.
'being photographed' - a surprising number of politicians fail even that test.
"Blonde" is an accurate description not a criticism. Who are you to tell people they can't use adjectives.
"Vacuous" - that is an accurate description of how she came across in the debates when she stood for party leader last time: her answers to questions were feeble, she had no policy positions to put forward, all she said was giddy.
"Self-promotion" - that is what she is good at hence all the nice articles about her. But there is no substance that I can see - and in that regard she seems rather more similar to Truss and Johnson and indeed Sunak than the break with them that is needed.
"Telling lies" - yes she lied over Brexit and her support for Brexit is not a sign of good judgment and she lied about what she tried to do over womens rights issues. She also dissembled about her time in the Navy. Small lies maybe but it is the fact that her default seems to be to lie when challenged which is the problem. Again it is reminiscent of Johnson. Integrity is something the Tories badly need.
She supported Truss pretty vocally during her ill-fated government and has Andrea Leadsom as her main advisor, which does not strike me as exhibiting good judgment. What achievements has she had in office?
As far as I can see the main reason so many men here like her is because they have the hots for her.
She does have presence which Sunak does not have. She can do jokes. Her response on the Privileges Committee report was well judged. So was Mrs May's and no-one is suggesting her.
But really it is not enough. Nowhere near. The current batch of senior wannabe leader Tories are all cut from the same cloth. The next leader with a chance of winning will be from the next generation not this one. They will need to be because they will need that time to rethink what Conservatism means and can offer in the 2030's and 2040's. I see no sign that Mordaunt or anyone else being touted is even beginning to think about this.
Oh and I criticise both men and women for how they look and dress because I think that when people go out in public they should make an effort to be presentable at the very least and elegant at best. If you cannot be bothered to make that effort stay at home.
Oh come off it, you can't call someone a "vacuous blonde" and then not expect for it to be called out as sexist. It's an old misogynistic trope. "But adjectives" is a pretty feeble response.
Bollocks. Johnson, Truss and Mordaunt are all in my view vacuous blondes. I have given you chapter and verse on why I think Mordaunt is vacuous and have done the same for Johnson as well, repeatedly, in numerous headers since 2018. Truss seemed to show some cunning but I decided that she was ghastly and said so.
And I am not taking any lessons on sexism from the misogynists on here who have attacked me repeatedly because I have been one of the few who has spoken up for women's rights.
You can't prove a specific by recourse to the general. You may believe you have a strong track record of standing up for women's rights, and you may be correct in that, but that doesn't mean it's impossible for you to slip up on a comment. If anyone believes themselves to be incapable of error because of a strong track record, they are kidding themselves. That's the kind of essentialist error that leads good people into hubris.
I have admitted to error eg over Kate Bingham for instance. I am well aware that I can and do get things wrong. But my view on Mordaunt stands. If she surprises on the upside then I will praise her as I did over the Coronation. But she is not a leader - unless being able to stand for 2 hours holding a sword is the standard and if that is the case we may as well give the position to any fit athlete.
As for you, you criticised me the other day for referring to an article about the ex-IOPC Director charged with various sexual offences implying I encouraged a pile on. In fact there was one comment by @ydoethur and no pile on. Nor did I encourage one. The same article had been referred to by other posters on an earlier thread who discussed it at length and made far more pointed comments than either I or @ydoethur So I was late to the discussion. But it was me you chose to criticise.
You might like to look at the beams in your own eyes etc.,......
An absolutely Mediterranean twilight sky in Primrose Hill tonight….
Relatedly? -
There has been an outbreak of sea swimming in the North Sea after work at my place. It is warmer (more correctly less Baltic) than anyone can ever remember. Almost the entire staff are hitting the waters to cool off physically and mentally.
Apparently the seas around Britain are 5C warmer than normal. That takes them from “bracing” to almost Mediterranean - at least in somewhere like Cornwall
And in Northumberland from dangerously unbearable to plain f-ing freezing.
Only 15% want to rejoin is devastating for those who make a daily effort to promote everything pro EU
Only 15% of LEAVERS!, it's more than 70% or Remainers that want to Rejoin. Add in those wanting to rejoin the SM and its looking on the cards.
There really needs to be some detailed polling done, because when there is you tend to find that as soon as people realise what Single Market means they effectively rule it out by wanting opt-outs; usually free movement goes down like a bag of cold sick, even Remainers on the whole were opposed to that. The sort of opt-outs the UK public wants would have prevented a referendum being held in the first place.
Basically the UK public would like to be in the Single Market, but without the four freedoms, we'd probably also support being in the EU if it reverted to the EEC.
Can you forage that samphire? It's up there with fresh asparagus among the very best vegetables in my book.
On which subject, we cut our last asparagus of the year yesterday. We cut the first on 24th April and we've had super-fresh asparagus pretty much every other day since, so sad to see it stop but the poor plants will need time to recover now.
Still, the peas and courgettes have started cropping!
Bit salty though, samphire (first had it in a Norwich restaurant in 1984 or so ... now can get it in the local community hamster food emporium ...).
Labour's honeymoon starts and ends on election day.
There won't be one because there's been no seduction. They'll come to power with a large majority yet with nobody expecting much. It's almost unheard of and a terrific platform to start governing. Just a few modest achievements and no mega fuck ups will be thrashing expectations and should lead to at least one further term.
A large majority? Really?
Consensus on here and elsewhere seems to be heading that way.
Of course, sentiment might swing back... or strengthen further... Events, dear boy, events.
I mean to get a majority of one Labour needs to win 123 seats... That is an absolutely enormous number of seats to win historically . An opposition just doesn't go from 202 seats to a landslide majority in one go.
It's not going to happen.
Labour will probably scrape a majority but it'll be from 1-20 at best IMO.
the pain of Brexit is all front loaded. It comes in the first 1-8 years. After that we will start to see genuine and obvious benefits (and once the emotional reaction has subsided)
Willingly going back into a superstate and handing back all the sovereignty will be much much harder, emotionally and politically, than Rejoiners think
Rage, rage against the dying of the light...
Rage, rage against the dying of the Right...
The irony though is that if we were to rejoin the EU we'd get more, not less, nationalist sentiment.
One of the true upsides of Brexit does seem to be a reduction in anti-immigration sentiment.
Can you forage that samphire? It's up there with fresh asparagus among the very best vegetables in my book.
On which subject, we cut our last asparagus of the year yesterday. We cut the first on 24th April and we've had super-fresh asparagus pretty much every other day since, so sad to see it stop but the poor plants will need time to recover now.
Still, the peas and courgettes have started cropping!
You can. But it seems a shame to disturb it. I agree with you about the taste.
Also very envious about the asparagus. When I get my veg garden going - it's herbs and fruit trees at the moment - that will be one of the veg I will grow.
Do use the courgette flowers - deep fried very quickly in a light batter - scrumptious!
for Sunil and other PB trans(portation) advocates:
Take a virtual ride on Honolulu's soon-to-open new Skyline light rail system, heading west on segment from Aloha Stadium (near Pearl Harbor) to Kapolei.
Where’s good for a holiday in your part of the world SSI? Thinking of a road trip in the Northwest of my Wife’s homeland and my only visit was a brief one when taking a Greyhound from Vancouver to San Francisco.
How much time do you have, and how much road to you want to go tripping down (in a manner of speaking)?
Personally would be tempted to drive
> from Seattle to Port Angeles WA, then ferry to Victoria BC > from Vic via Swartz Bay > Tsawwassen ferry to Vancouver > from Vancouver to Banff via Trans-Canada & Coquihalla Highways to Banff NP > from Banff via Alberta to CN Waterton Lakes-US Glacier NP (> alternative from Van, take highway across southern BC just north of border to Crowsnest Pass, an amazing road crossing several mountain ranges interspersed with big lakes and valleys > from Waterton/Glacier west to Cour d'Alene ID then Spokane WA > from Spokane to Grand Coulee Dam and the not-to-be-missed Dry Falls > from Dry Falls to Wenatchee to Leavenworth to Stevens Pass and back to Seattle.
Plenty of alternatives along this general route.
For example, you can go from Seattle directly to Port Angeles via Bainbridge Island ferry; OR you can head down to Olympia, then west and north on US 101 to Pacific Coast then via Forks to PA from the west.
Oooh! That sounds promising! I may research that and follow up if I may.
Meant to say, from Banff via CALGARY Alberta. And also Cardston AB, small town with a BIG Morman temple.
Because it was just north of the Medicine Line aka 49th Parallel, so during late 19th century when US govt was cracking down on LDS polygamy, practicing polygamists could flee from Utah to Alberta. Indeed, not a few had (at least) one wife in Utah, and another in Canada.
Similar situation in northern Mexico just south of Arizona (some guys even had wives in US, Alberta AND Sonora. Note that Mitt Romney's dad, George Romney, was born in Mexico, which was a bit of an issue (but not much) when HE ran for GOP presidential nomination in 1968.
Only 15% want to rejoin is devastating for those who make a daily effort to promote everything pro EU
Huh? 15% of people who voted leave want to rejoin the entity they expressly voted to leave? That’s brilliant for Rejoiners. Because they are now in the Rejoin camp. Do you see how this works?
I do and it does not change my view it is not likely in the foreseeable future
Indeed did you not recently post in this vein
If I read a poll saying that 15% of 2019 Labour voters were switching to the Tories I’d revise my opinion on the next General Election. And equally this poll has made me drastically reconsider the question
The problem for the Tories is not just mortgage holders but renters as well.
Rents are high, the quality of properties is poor and renters are treated badly by a lot of landlords. That is a very real issue for the young who cannot buy.
It's not just building properties for sale that is needed but a decent rental sector as well.
It is a vicious circle as buy to let landlords either sell up reducing supply or increase rents in line with their mortgage costs
Even at 300,000 homes a year it will take years when the crisis is now
Starmer is going to have a tough few years as interest rates are heading up towards 6% with no easing before 2025
The Fed have said tonight the US will also need further interest rate increases this year
I wonder what will happen when there are (a) not enough renters left able to afford the excruciating sums being demanded by desperate landlords, and (b) not enough buyers left able to afford the prices that failed landlords demand when attempting to sell?
Then there's all the mortgage borrowers collapsing under the weight of hugely inflated repayments. The entire property market could easily crash land, and you have to wonder how much capacity the banks have to intervene to prop bad debtors up, even if being cajoled, threatened and begged by the politicians to do so. IANAE but surely if the lenders try to support too many distressed borrowers at once then we end up back in another banking crisis?
An absolutely Mediterranean twilight sky in Primrose Hill tonight….
Relatedly? -
There has been an outbreak of sea swimming in the North Sea after work at my place. It is warmer (more correctly less Baltic) than anyone can ever remember. Almost the entire staff are hitting the waters to cool off physically and mentally.
Apparently the seas around Britain are 5C warmer than normal. That takes them from “bracing” to almost Mediterranean - at least in somewhere like Cornwall
And in Northumberland from dangerously unbearable to plain f-ing freezing.
Will be near Amble in early September
PM me nearer the time and I'll buy you a pint or two.
Reassuring this evening that the midsummer swallows are still looping overhead. And there are insects. If government wants a Brexit benefit then ban most insecticides and create maritime reserves around most of the coast.
I always find it a little sad that before we even reach the longest day most of the cuckoos are already on their way back across France to Africa. Such an iconic bird and yet it is here for such a short time. Just 8 weeks out of each year.
A truly shit lifestyle, though, iconic or not.
I have just been in the Shiants surrounded by puffins.
If Britain is to rejoin the EU and make a success of it, it has to do so as a self-confident nation which joins because it wants to do so for positive reasons and in full understanding of and agreement with the direction of travel and what this means. Not because it is in a mess and feels that Brexit is a failure. That is to repeat the mistakes of the 1970's when Britain joined as the sick man of Europe.
Simply reversing Brexit is the worst possible basis for rejoining.
Comments
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/22/this-is-ruining-peoples-lives-homeowners-hit-by-uk-mortgage-crisis-speak-out
Three of the people are from Surrey and the other from North London with a £950k mortgage.
One of the Surrey lot is:
Steven, 52, and his wife have an interest-only mortgage. They bought their house 20 years ago, initially on an interest rate of 4.8%.
Do you need a refresher course?
I was 22 when our eldest was born
And I would just say @HYUFD is utterly obsessed with inheritance, when most people's estate will be greatly reduced by care fees for their parents
It doesn't mean it can't happen this time, but your baseline assumption has to be as you say.
Look to 1983 as well. The Conservatives won that bigly, but mainly because of a highly split opposition. Their vote share edged down slightly. Possibly it would have been worse than a 1.5% drop without the Falklands, we can't know for sure. The polling data shows an increase in Conservative VI starting well before the war and peaking before the end of it.
A house bought 20 years ago should be all-but paid off by now, and even interest-only would have been bought at about 10% of the current price of houses anyway.
So if they're struggling they haven't just not paid the capital down, they've presumably remortgaged to extract their 'equity growth' and spent that money. 🤦♂️
Either Brexit delivers the goods for the British people (and neither EPC nor CPTPP looks like doing that) or it will die. And deservedly so.
Because even if you accept that 2016-9 created a duty for Britain to try Brexit, there comes a point on both time and numbers where the county shouldn't be a prisoner of a decision taken on one day in 2016.
Albeit that Sunak has fought those foundations every step of the way and they're happening despite him not because of him.
Edit the picture, trim a tiny bit off
It'll save as the orientation that you did the edit
Off iPhone, I'm not sure
"Vacuous" - that is an accurate description of how she came across in the debates when she stood for party leader last time: her answers to questions were feeble, she had no policy positions to put forward, all she said was giddy.
"Self-promotion" - that is what she is good at hence all the nice articles about her. But there is no substance that I can see - and in that regard she seems rather more similar to Truss and Johnson and indeed Sunak than the break with them that is needed.
"Telling lies" - yes she lied over Brexit and her support for Brexit is not a sign of good judgment and she lied about what she tried to do over womens rights issues. She also dissembled about her time in the Navy. Small lies maybe but it is the fact that her default seems to be to lie when challenged which is the problem. Again it is reminiscent of Johnson. Integrity is something the Tories badly need.
She supported Truss pretty vocally during her ill-fated government and has Andrea Leadsom as her main advisor, which does not strike me as exhibiting good judgment. What achievements had she had in office?
As far as I can see the main reason so many men here like her is because they have the hots for her.
She does have presence which Sunak does not have. She can do jokes. Her response on the Privileges Committee report was well judged. So was Mrs May's and no-one is sugge Bollocks. Johnson, Truss and Mordaunt are all in my view vacuous blondes. I have given you chapter and verse on why I think Mordaunt is vacuous and have done the same for Johnson as well, repeatedly, in numerous headers since 2018. Truss seemed to show some cunning but I decided that she was ghastly and said so.
And I am not taking any lessons on sexism from the misogynists on here who have attacked me repeatedly because I have been one of the few who has spoken up for women's rights.
Any duty of the decision taken in 2016 was fulfilled in full when we left on 31/01/2020 - that is history now. Finished, caput, done, over.
If we vote to rejoin now, that'd be entirely democratic.
However I would rate the odds of it happening at less than 5% personally. People have moved on. Labour will have bigger fish to fry trying to reshape the country how they want to in their time in power than reopening old wounds on relations with Europe.
Only 25% will need care home fees
Indeed our son in law has just paid nearly £300,000 for his parents care before they passed
Your love of inheritance is at times just distasteful
One day Labour might engineer some kind of “special relationship” which is tantamount to
membership but even that would be immensely tricky
We will be like Switzerland. Constantly negotiating annoying little changes
Would you want to rejoin an EU where radical right parties were in the driving seat? I’m
Indeed did you not recently post in this vein
Willingly going back into a superstate and handing back all the sovereignty will be much much harder, emotionally and politically, than Rejoiners think
Rents are high, the quality of properties is poor and renters are treated badly by a lot of landlords. That is a very real issue for the young who cannot buy.
It's not just building properties for sale that is needed but a decent rental sector as well.
So not 10% but 45% of today's price.
People end up on interest-only mortgages for all sorts of reasons, not necessarily profligacy.
I was speaking to a 77 y.o. woman a couple of months ago, husband died after a very long illness leaving her in a £200k house with a £120k interest-only mortgage and her only income is the State Pension. She's going to have to sell of course, and find somewhere to rent if she can. Her mortgage payments currently exceed her total income.
But doctors didn't demand a 35% pay increase in 1997.
I doubt they'll demand a 35% pay increase from PM Starmer either - more likely to be 50% by then.
And every other public sector union will join them - some with justification.
'Russia is unable to keep hold of Enerhodar in the medium term, and therefore is currently considering a large-scale terrorist attack at the ZNPP to stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive and create a depopulated sanitary gray zone, fixed for the next years, as part of the territorial status quo without ceasefire. This strategy also includes attempts to attack the dam in Kryvyi Rih with Kinzhals. Additional mining of the nuclear power plant, including the cooling ponds, is currently underway. Whether the Kremlin decides to go ahead with this scenario today depends solely on the reaction of the global world. The red lines have to be defined. The consequences must be announced.
Not tomorrow. Today.'
Most of you seem to have your fingers in your ears. I worry our leaders do as well.
I don't see how the public sector unions don't demand a lot and very quickly.
Samphire on the marshes.
If anyone believes themselves to be incapable of error because of a strong track record, they are kidding themselves. That's the kind of essentialist error that leads good people into hubris.
That's it.
Politico Congressional Minutes - The House Ethics Committee issued a remarkable update on its investigation into Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.), announcing more than 30 subpoenas.
The panel announced its progress Thursday, nearly two months after Santos was indicted on multiple federal charges.
What's happening: The House Ethics Committee, which usually heeds Justice Department requests to put its investigations on ice while prosecutors work a case, is instead forging ahead on the Santos matter.
“The Committee is aware of the risks associated with dual investigations and is in communication with the Department of Justice to mitigate the potential risks while still meeting the Committee’s obligations to safeguard the integrity of the House,” the panel's chair Rep. Michael Guest (R-Miss.) and ranking member Susan Wild (D-Pa.) said in a statement on Thursday.
Allegations against Santos before the ethics committee include violation of conflict-of-interest laws, sexual misconduct towards someone seeking employment in his congressional office, illegal campaign-related actions and failure to disclose required information in statements filed to the House.
When it started: The ethics panel first officially established an investigative subcommittee to probe into allegations against Santos back on Feb. 28 and, in addition to the latest subpoenas, has put out “more than 40 voluntary requests for information.” The committee is evenly split between Republicans and Democrats.
https://www.politico.com/minutes/congress/06-22-2023/santos-ethics-investigation/
IF yours truly was a Republican, and esp. a GOP congressperson, would want George Santos (or even better, resigned due to looming expulsion) in order to
> get new Republican replacement via special election, and in place before 2024.
> help GOP congresspeople (& others) in swing suburban districts (& states) with swing voters.
There is absolutely nothing I relish about a Labour government and I think its going to do a lot of damage.
We're still going to get one though.
(1) Under MCOB 11.6.5R , in taking account of likely future interest rate increases for the purposes of its assessment of whether the customer will be able to pay the sums due, a mortgage lender must consider the likely future interest rates over a minimum period of five years from the expected start of the term of the regulated mortgage contract (or variation), unless the interest rate under the regulated mortgage contract is fixed for a period of five years or more from that time, or for the duration of the regulated mortgage contract (or variation), if less than five years.
(2) In coming to a view as to likely future interest rates, a mortgage lender must have regard to:
(a) market expectations; and
(b) any prevailing Financial Policy Committee recommendation on appropriate interest-rate stress tests;
and must be able to justify the basis it uses by reference to (a) and (b).
(3) For the purposes of this rule, even if the basis used by the mortgage lender in (2) indicates that interest rates are likely to fall, or to rise by less than 1%, during the first five years of the regulated mortgage contract (or variation), a mortgage lender must assume that interest rates will rise by a minimum of 1% over that period.
https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/MCOB/11/6.html#DES127
Worthless, really.
But I think that if he really does something about housing - building more good quality efficient carbon neutral homes both for sale and rental - then that could be really transformative for very many voters and also do something for the creation of a skilled workforce.
That's what I would focus on were I a Labour PM or, frankly, any sort of PM.
The Schwartz Bay - Tsawwassen ferry must be the world's most scenic (it was my frequent route to Vancouver).
If you have a car, a drive up Vancouver Island to the very top at Port Hardy is wonderfully scenic. (365 miles).
If you don't Vancouver Banff by train has to one of the great rail journeys. (Just make sure you get the high Rockies in daylight).
Edit:
A trip north to the Arctic is also feasible from Banff. The lakes get bigger. The "towns" get smaller and farther apart.
Then you are in true wilderness.
Even at 300,000 homes a year it will take years when the crisis is now
Starmer is going to have a tough few years as interest rates are heading up towards 6% with no easing before 2025
The Fed have said tonight the US will also need further interest rate increases this year
"Lessons were learned" you say.....
I have long said that it is likely to be the Conservatives reverting to their longstanding pre 2016 policy of EU membership that takes us back in. Indeed I might even vote for them if they put it in their manifesto.
Of course, sentiment might swing back... or strengthen further... Events, dear boy, events.
It's what Labour ought to be doing, so whether they build on the required scale or not is going to tell us everything we need to know about how committed they are to helping their own supporters - or if they're in thrall to the same sclerotic, rotten economic settlement, dominated by aged, rich, largely Southern English Nimbies, as the Conservatives are.
I wouldn't be surprised if it were the Tories in Opposition who will first suggest Rejoin.
Wouldn't be shocked to see them pushing for a referendum to de-stabilise Labour in a decade.
They are that cynical.
I wonder if the Chinese would be willing to rein him in. Because he won't listen to anyone else.
If not, we may have a big problem.
It's not going to happen.
Labour will probably scrape a majority but it'll be from 1-20 at best IMO.
Can you forage that samphire? It's up there with fresh asparagus among the very best vegetables in my book.
On which subject, we cut our last asparagus of the year yesterday. We cut the first on 24th April and we've had super-fresh asparagus pretty much every other day since, so sad to see it stop but the poor plants will need time to recover now.
Still, the peas and courgettes have started cropping!
As for you, you criticised me the other day for referring to an article about the ex-IOPC Director charged with various sexual offences implying I encouraged a pile on. In fact there was one comment by @ydoethur and no pile on. Nor did I encourage one. The same article had been referred to by other posters on an earlier thread who discussed it at length and made far more pointed comments than either I or @ydoethur So I was late to the discussion. But it was me you chose to criticise.
You might like to look at the beams in your own eyes etc.,......
Basically the UK public would like to be in the Single Market, but without the four freedoms, we'd probably also support being in the EU if it reverted to the EEC.
Also very envious about the asparagus. When I get my veg garden going - it's herbs and fruit trees at the moment - that will be one of the veg I will grow.
Do use the courgette flowers - deep fried very quickly in a light batter - scrumptious!
Because it was just north of the Medicine Line aka 49th Parallel, so during late 19th century when US govt was cracking down on LDS polygamy, practicing polygamists could flee from Utah to Alberta. Indeed, not a few had (at least) one wife in Utah, and another in Canada.
Similar situation in northern Mexico just south of Arizona (some guys even had wives in US, Alberta AND Sonora. Note that Mitt Romney's dad, George Romney, was born in Mexico, which was a bit of an issue (but not much) when HE ran for GOP presidential nomination in 1968.
Then there's all the mortgage borrowers collapsing under the weight of hugely inflated repayments. The entire property market could easily crash land, and you have to wonder how much capacity the banks have to intervene to prop bad debtors up, even if being cajoled, threatened and begged by the politicians to do so. IANAE but surely if the lenders try to support too many distressed borrowers at once then we end up back in another banking crisis?
I have just been in the Shiants surrounded by puffins.
Simply reversing Brexit is the worst possible basis for rejoining.
So it will take some considerable time.