But Tory members are so high up the demographic curve that they are dying off at an alarming rate...
No they are not. Given life expectancies and the late-life care which your older Conservative Party member can no doubt afford, somebody mid-seventies will have about fifteen years in front of them. Unpleasant years, but still there and still capable of putting a cross on a postal vote form.
We keep saying that they are dying off, but there are A LOT of pensioners and for around the next ten-fifteen years they will remain the dominant force in British politics. When it switches it will switch fast as they begin to be outnumbered by younger votes in sufficient proportion to outweigh differential turnout by age, but until then it will be pensionerism all the way...
Even then the median voter will be aged 50 still not 30
Taking into account both raw demographics and propensity to vote, I believe that the median voter is aged about 55. This value is likely to keep creeping slowly up for the foreseeable, because so many younger people aren't forming families for various reasons, not least the crippling cost. Yet another issue that can be put down to the full spectrum catastrophe that is the British property market.
Not that this is any real use to the Conservatives in the long run, because people are no longer moving rightwards as they age. Being the party of the landed interest - minted pensioner owner-occupiers, their heirs and rentiers - only wins elections so long as there are enough of those people around to keep voting for you. Those who have neither significant assets nor any realistic prospect of accruing them have nothing to conserve and, consequently, no use for conservatism.
By 55 plenty are starting to inherit property (and most should have bought a property with a mortgage well before then anyway).
I'm 56. I don't know many of my cohort who have lost both parents.
But Tory members are so high up the demographic curve that they are dying off at an alarming rate...
No they are not. Given life expectancies and the late-life care which your older Conservative Party member can no doubt afford, somebody mid-seventies will have about fifteen years in front of them. Unpleasant years, but still there and still capable of putting a cross on a postal vote form.
We keep saying that they are dying off, but there are A LOT of pensioners and for around the next ten-fifteen years they will remain the dominant force in British politics. When it switches it will switch fast as they begin to be outnumbered by younger votes in sufficient proportion to outweigh differential turnout by age, but until then it will be pensionerism all the way...
Even then the median voter will be aged 50 still not 30
Taking into account both raw demographics and propensity to vote, I believe that the median voter is aged about 55. This value is likely to keep creeping slowly up for the foreseeable, because so many younger people aren't forming families for various reasons, not least the crippling cost. Yet another issue that can be put down to the full spectrum catastrophe that is the British property market.
Not that this is any real use to the Conservatives in the long run, because people are no longer moving rightwards as they age. Being the party of the landed interest - minted pensioner owner-occupiers, their heirs and rentiers - only wins elections so long as there are enough of those people around to keep voting for you. Those who have neither significant assets nor any realistic prospect of accruing them have nothing to conserve and, consequently, no use for conservatism.
By 55 plenty are starting to inherit property (and most should have bought a property with a mortgage well before then anyway).
I'm 56. I don't know many of my cohort who have lost both parents.
But Tory members are so high up the demographic curve that they are dying off at an alarming rate...
No they are not. Given life expectancies and the late-life care which your older Conservative Party member can no doubt afford, somebody mid-seventies will have about fifteen years in front of them. Unpleasant years, but still there and still capable of putting a cross on a postal vote form.
We keep saying that they are dying off, but there are A LOT of pensioners and for around the next ten-fifteen years they will remain the dominant force in British politics. When it switches it will switch fast as they begin to be outnumbered by younger votes in sufficient proportion to outweigh differential turnout by age, but until then it will be pensionerism all the way...
Even then the median voter will be aged 50 still not 30
Taking into account both raw demographics and propensity to vote, I believe that the median voter is aged about 55. This value is likely to keep creeping slowly up for the foreseeable, because so many younger people aren't forming families for various reasons, not least the crippling cost. Yet another issue that can be put down to the full spectrum catastrophe that is the British property market.
Not that this is any real use to the Conservatives in the long run, because people are no longer moving rightwards as they age. Being the party of the landed interest - minted pensioner owner-occupiers, their heirs and rentiers - only wins elections so long as there are enough of those people around to keep voting for you. Those who have neither significant assets nor any realistic prospect of accruing them have nothing to conserve and, consequently, no use for conservatism.
By 55 plenty are starting to inherit property (and most should have bought a property with a mortgage well before then anyway).
I'm 56. I don't know many of my cohort who have lost both parents.
for Sunil and other PB trans(portation) advocates:
Take a virtual ride on Honolulu's soon-to-open new Skyline light rail system, heading west on segment from Aloha Stadium (near Pearl Harbor) to Kapolei.
Can't believe Hague is being seriously suggested. The guy isn't even an MP. How would that work, then?
Thing is, in a "Sunak under a bus tomorrow" scenario, someone has to be PM, and the alternatives are all utterly absurd.
The same will probably be the case for a 2025 leadership election.
Arguably, the most relevant news on the "next Conservative PM" front is Rupert Harrison's selection in Bicester for the Conservatives. Because I suspect we need to look for someone who can say that 2019-24 was nothing to do with them.
But Tory members are so high up the demographic curve that they are dying off at an alarming rate...
No they are not. Given life expectancies and the late-life care which your older Conservative Party member can no doubt afford, somebody mid-seventies will have about fifteen years in front of them. Unpleasant years, but still there and still capable of putting a cross on a postal vote form.
We keep saying that they are dying off, but there are A LOT of pensioners and for around the next ten-fifteen years they will remain the dominant force in British politics. When it switches it will switch fast as they begin to be outnumbered by younger votes in sufficient proportion to outweigh differential turnout by age, but until then it will be pensionerism all the way...
Even then the median voter will be aged 50 still not 30
Taking into account both raw demographics and propensity to vote, I believe that the median voter is aged about 55. This value is likely to keep creeping slowly up for the foreseeable, because so many younger people aren't forming families for various reasons, not least the crippling cost. Yet another issue that can be put down to the full spectrum catastrophe that is the British property market.
Not that this is any real use to the Conservatives in the long run, because people are no longer moving rightwards as they age. Being the party of the landed interest - minted pensioner owner-occupiers, their heirs and rentiers - only wins elections so long as there are enough of those people around to keep voting for you. Those who have neither significant assets nor any realistic prospect of accruing them have nothing to conserve and, consequently, no use for conservatism.
By 55 plenty are starting to inherit property (and most should have bought a property with a mortgage well before then anyway).
I'm 56. I don't know many of my cohort who have lost both parents.
It's worth remembering that, excellent as she was at wielding a ceremonial sword, Penny Mordaunt was all over the place during the last-but-one leadership contest. Essentially, the more she spoke, the more her support faltered.
The last thing the Tories need is another vacuous blonde with no achievements to their name but with a great capacity for self-promotion, telling lies and being photographed. Aren't Johnson and Truss enough for them? .
So you’re saying that Sir Michael Fabricant shouldn’t go for the top job?
The only 'top job' he needs involves a large knife and his head.
Whether that stops at taking his hair off, I leave up to you.
Can't believe Hague is being seriously suggested. The guy isn't even an MP. How would that work, then?
Thing is, in a "Sunak under a bus tomorrow" scenario, someone has to be PM, and the alternatives are all utterly absurd.
The same will probably be the case for a 2025 leadership election.
Arguably, the most relevant news on the "next Conservative PM" front is Rupert Harrison's selection in Bicester for the Conservatives. Because I suspect we need to look for someone who can say that 2019-24 was nothing to do with them.
But 2010-2016 was plenty to do with him. What followed was sown then. I suspect the next Tory PM isn't an MP yet and won't fight this election. Just like Cameron in 1997.
A huge spike in interest rates just helps cash buyers and savers
Genuine question - are people actually benefiting? I have various accounts scattered across different traditional high street banks and I still seem to be getting absolute piffling amounts of interest on all of them. The banks seem surprised by the question when I ask them why this should be the case. All sorts of excuses seem to be bandied around as "explanations".
Accepting that there are probably better deals if you are arsed enough to shuffle your money round as appropriate, but, proportionally, how many people are actually doing that?
Looks like I missed the latest lab-leak shouts today.
As I've long been interested in finding out what actually happened, I'm still disappointed. All we've seen in recent weeks is reheating of the same old stuff - and then one place citing another, and someone else citing them, and all of this supposed to be new or greater evidence?
The "three lab workers got ill with 'flu or a bad cold and we all know that MUST mean covid," thing has been around for literally years now. Even sometimes with names attached. But all three were back to work quickly, no-one was seriously ill, and, rather importantly, when tested for seropositivity, no-one at WIV had had covid before.
And these people were still there. And still publishing papers and in apparently good odour there, which is curious if they did indeed cause millions of deaths in China and a huge impact to China's economy, and cause it to fall under suspicion worldwide, given that China is, you know, a massively authoritarian regime and can be quite harsh.
The fact that it was the worst flu season in China in a decade in late 2019 (and yes, the country was being hit by an influenza virus, not a coronavirus) should maybe be taken into account when considering that a few people working in a decent-sized institute in one of China's biggest cities did get flu that winter.
But, as I said, this is nothing new, and no useful evidence has been put forwards.
You can't get from RaTG13 to SARS-CoV2 by passing it through lab animals. The entire furin cleavage site thing was an irrelevance, because it's not that unusual in coronaviruses as it turns out (SARS-MERS has one, for example).
And the US Intelligence Community had all this information (obviously, as it's them whose had to declassify it) when they concluded:
I know Leon is very excitable on this and for some reason sees it as some sort of identification with his own intellect, but if those who've had the expertise and this information for so long are 4-2-2 on zoonosis-unsure-lab leak (and the two on lab leak are split as to which lab, one being WCDC and the other WIV), then I'm not seeing a conclusion so far.
I've said all along I can see either being plausible. The lab leak has become less plausible (its main selling point is that it's in the same city - but then again, of China's ten largest cities, seven have a biological research lab with coronaviruses, and you need a large city for the big superspreading, anyway) - the furin cleavage site wasn't a big deal, none of the viruses cited were close enough, the structure of SARS-CoV-2 isn't pointing to artificiality. Zoonosis has become more plausible (more things tracked down around the wet market, two separate lineages jumped across, which points to zoonosis rather than leakage, unless it's a continued and repeated leakage).
But both are still on the table and useful evidence can swing it back. Not seen yet, though.
Can't believe Hague is being seriously suggested. The guy isn't even an MP. How would that work, then?
Thing is, in a "Sunak under a bus tomorrow" scenario, someone has to be PM, and the alternatives are all utterly absurd.
The same will probably be the case for a 2025 leadership election.
Arguably, the most relevant news on the "next Conservative PM" front is Rupert Harrison's selection in Bicester for the Conservatives. Because I suspect we need to look for someone who can say that 2019-24 was nothing to do with them.
Mordaunt / Badenoch.... knowing how these selection things go, back the one with the biggest boobs.
As I've mentioned more than a few times, Penny Mordaunt is one of the very few modern politicians I've seen who can project both empathy and authority.
The Tories should make use of that.
But can she swivel her eyes and make barking noises at the moon? If not, she's pretty much ruled out.
(Incidentally, is anyone else amused by the fact that the sets of "It was a deliberately designed biological weapon with hostile intent" and "We should have done far less to try to reduce infection with it" are often very much overlapping?)
Can't believe Hague is being seriously suggested. The guy isn't even an MP. How would that work, then?
Thing is, in a "Sunak under a bus tomorrow" scenario, someone has to be PM, and the alternatives are all utterly absurd.
The same will probably be the case for a 2025 leadership election.
Arguably, the most relevant news on the "next Conservative PM" front is Rupert Harrison's selection in Bicester for the Conservatives. Because I suspect we need to look for someone who can say that 2019-24 was nothing to do with them.
Mordaunt / Badenoch.... knowing how these selection things go, back the one with the biggest boobs.
If we're talking about the biggest tit, we're back to Fabricant.
FPT: (rcs) “Agree re German wines. And while I love Nyetimber, I think that ship has already sailed; it is no longer cheap compared to similar Champagne, and looks downright expensive against US sparkling wine.”
Nyetimber has in my view a way to go. It’s seriously good stuff and their top sites have only just come on stream. They have a large planting round the corner from my vineyard and it’s (even) better terroir than mine. Certainly for Chardonnay. Their blanc de blancs was in the MW tasting exam this year.
Thing with ESW is it’s been discovered by the rich British but not yet by the world. The downside of course is the top bottles are already £100+ so I suppose don’t quite fit the brief.
I've seen English Fizz on the winelist in a couple of ultra-posh restaurants, one in Asia the other Italy (IIRC)
So it is perhaps beginning to be recognised, outside the UK, as high quality wine, with a snob value
Being able to palm off poor quality over-acidic white wine as some sort of premium product, because it’s been run through the soda stream, is base camp as far as credible wine making is concerned.
A truly imbecilic remark, even by your testing standards of imbecility. English Fizz is consistently acknowledged as some of the best in the world. Pricey but excellent
A friend of mine is a huge wine importer, highly successful owner of several wine based companies. It was him that introduced me to the quality of English Fizz. And he’s a kiwi, with no patriotic tambourine to bash
But Tory members are so high up the demographic curve that they are dying off at an alarming rate...
No they are not. Given life expectancies and the late-life care which your older Conservative Party member can no doubt afford, somebody mid-seventies will have about fifteen years in front of them. Unpleasant years, but still there and still capable of putting a cross on a postal vote form.
We keep saying that they are dying off, but there are A LOT of pensioners and for around the next ten-fifteen years they will remain the dominant force in British politics. When it switches it will switch fast as they begin to be outnumbered by younger votes in sufficient proportion to outweigh differential turnout by age, but until then it will be pensionerism all the way...
Even then the median voter will be aged 50 still not 30
Taking into account both raw demographics and propensity to vote, I believe that the median voter is aged about 55. This value is likely to keep creeping slowly up for the foreseeable, because so many younger people aren't forming families for various reasons, not least the crippling cost. Yet another issue that can be put down to the full spectrum catastrophe that is the British property market.
Not that this is any real use to the Conservatives in the long run, because people are no longer moving rightwards as they age. Being the party of the landed interest - minted pensioner owner-occupiers, their heirs and rentiers - only wins elections so long as there are enough of those people around to keep voting for you. Those who have neither significant assets nor any realistic prospect of accruing them have nothing to conserve and, consequently, no use for conservatism.
By 55 plenty are starting to inherit property (and most should have bought a property with a mortgage well before then anyway).
I'm 56. I don't know many of my cohort who have lost both parents.
Besides, as I said in my previous reply, people shouldn't be reduced to waiting for a cherished mother and father to die to be able to enjoy a decent standard of living. And the ones who don't have wealthy parents to inherit from in the first place may have no hope of deliverance at all.
(Incidentally, is anyone else amused by the fact that the sets of "It was a deliberately designed biological weapon with hostile intent" and "We should have done far less to try to reduce infection with it" are often very much overlapping?)
Looks like I missed the latest lab-leak shouts today.
As I've long been interested in finding out what actually happened, I'm still disappointed. All we've seen in recent weeks is reheating of the same old stuff - and then one place citing another, and someone else citing them, and all of this supposed to be new or greater evidence?
The "three lab workers got ill with 'flu or a bad cold and we all know that MUST mean covid," thing has been around for literally years now. Even sometimes with names attached. But all three were back to work quickly, no-one was seriously ill, and, rather importantly, when tested for seropositivity, no-one at WIV had had covid before.
And these people were still there. And still publishing papers and in apparently good odour there, which is curious if they did indeed cause millions of deaths in China and a huge impact to China's economy, and cause it to fall under suspicion worldwide, given that China is, you know, a massively authoritarian regime and can be quite harsh.
The fact that it was the worst flu season in China in a decade in late 2019 (and yes, the country was being hit by an influenza virus, not a coronavirus) should maybe be taken into account when considering that a few people working in a decent-sized institute in one of China's biggest cities did get flu that winter.
But, as I said, this is nothing new, and no useful evidence has been put forwards.
You can't get from RaTG13 to SARS-CoV2 by passing it through lab animals. The entire furin cleavage site thing was an irrelevance, because it's not that unusual in coronaviruses as it turns out (SARS-MERS has one, for example).
And the US Intelligence Community had all this information (obviously, as it's them whose had to declassify it) when they concluded:
I know Leon is very excitable on this and for some reason sees it as some sort of identification with his own intellect, but if those who've had the expertise and this information for so long are 4-2-2 on zoonosis-unsure-lab leak (and the two on lab leak are split as to which lab, one being WCDC and the other WIV), then I'm not seeing a conclusion so far.
I've said all along I can see either being plausible. The lab leak has become less plausible (its main selling point is that it's in the same city - but then again, of China's ten largest cities, seven have a biological research lab with coronaviruses, and you need a large city for the big superspreading, anyway) - the furin cleavage site wasn't a big deal, none of the viruses cited were close enough, the structure of SARS-CoV-2 isn't pointing to artificiality. Zoonosis has become more plausible (more things tracked down around the wet market, two separate lineages jumped across, which points to zoonosis rather than leakage, unless it's a continued and repeated leakage).
But both are still on the table and useful evidence can swing it back. Not seen yet, though.
Haven't you heard? Leon's definitively called on all his *massive* scientific expertise and proclaimed it was a lab leak. Indeed, he's called on anyone who doubted the splendour of his dribblings to pay him money.
His expertise in this field is unsurpassed, after all.
As I've mentioned more than a few times, Penny Mordaunt is one of the very few modern politicians I've seen who can project both empathy and authority.
It's worth remembering that, excellent as she was at wielding a ceremonial sword, Penny Mordaunt was all over the place during the last-but-one leadership contest. Essentially, the more she spoke, the more her support faltered.
The last thing the Tories need is another vacuous blonde with no achievements to their name but with a great capacity for self-promotion, telling lies and being photographed. Aren't Johnson and Truss enough for them? .
So you’re saying that Sir Michael Fabricant shouldn’t go for the top job?
The only 'top job' he needs involves a large knife and his head.
Whether that stops at taking his hair off, I leave up to you.
Can't believe Hague is being seriously suggested. The guy isn't even an MP. How would that work, then?
Thing is, in a "Sunak under a bus tomorrow" scenario, someone has to be PM, and the alternatives are all utterly absurd.
The same will probably be the case for a 2025 leadership election.
Arguably, the most relevant news on the "next Conservative PM" front is Rupert Harrison's selection in Bicester for the Conservatives. Because I suspect we need to look for someone who can say that 2019-24 was nothing to do with them.
Can't believe Hague is being seriously suggested. The guy isn't even an MP. How would that work, then?
Thing is, in a "Sunak under a bus tomorrow" scenario, someone has to be PM, and the alternatives are all utterly absurd.
The same will probably be the case for a 2025 leadership election.
Arguably, the most relevant news on the "next Conservative PM" front is Rupert Harrison's selection in Bicester for the Conservatives. Because I suspect we need to look for someone who can say that 2019-24 was nothing to do with them.
Mordaunt / Badenoch.... knowing how these selection things go, back the one with the biggest boobs.
Though in 2019, the party went for the man who made the biggest boobs, so progress of a sort.
As I've mentioned more than a few times, Penny Mordaunt is one of the very few modern politicians I've seen who can project both empathy and authority.
The Tories should make use of that.
Why is empathy important in a politician?
Because generally they can't display competence so empathy is about the next best thing?
I'm starting to think a wipeout is possible, or it will be if Farage comes on the pitch in the 90th minute. I'm hearing core Conservatives giving up now - who are solid base.
Even my Dad, who's so staunch he makes @HYUFD look like a floating voter, has said they don't deserve another term. And I agreed with him.
He's never come close to saying anything like that before in his life.
In the longer term it will be a good thing for your tribe. A properly functioning democracy needs a properly functioning centre right party. And since November 1990 yours hasn’t really been able to figure out what its core principles are. The same could be said for Labour of course but Blair did at least have some vision of radical centrism IMHO.
We dont have any properly function parties of any colour. They are all idiots who just want to continue the status quo that ended us in the shit we are in.
Fortunately it is just possible that deliverance is at hand. An economy based on property speculation, which is what we now have, cannot survive a prolonged period of very high interest rates - and there's no particular reason to suppose that the BoE will stop with a base rate of 6%, which is the current peak number that economic analysts seem to have plucked out of thin air. Inflation is proving very sticky and the BoE has no choice but to keep applying more and more downward pressure on the economy if it isn't to risk stagflation, followed by a collapse in international investor consequence in the UK and a Sterling crisis.
The existing socio-economic system is engineered to favour existing property owners, and to redistribute the stagnant pool of available wealth from the poor to the rich, principally via the inflation of asset prices and rents. We are long overdue a major downward correction in house prices, and such a collapse is to be welcomed. A huge spike in interest rates would make this very much more likely. Good. Bring it on.
Consumer price Inflation will come down quicker than people think.
Wholesale price inflation has dropped from 12% to 3% since the start of the year. Input price inflation is about to turn negative, after reaching a peak of 23% last year. That will feed through into consumer prices.
Eventually, yes, though possibly not as quick as you Tories hope though presumably you'll be barking on ad infinitum in the election campaign about how well you've managed the economy.
The levels of debt would be a bigger concern and the increasing interest rates mean we have to devote most of our GDP to paying down the debt interest.
I presume you'll be hoping for some rapid base rate cuts later in the year and then (somehow) the money will be found for a pre-election tax cut bribe.
The huge debt and deficit will be ignored or brushed under a particularly large and dusty carpet.
for Sunil and other PB trans(portation) advocates:
Take a virtual ride on Honolulu's soon-to-open new Skyline light rail system, heading west on segment from Aloha Stadium (near Pearl Harbor) to Kapolei.
Where’s good for a holiday in your part of the world SSI? Thinking of a road trip in the Northwest of my Wife’s homeland and my only visit was a brief one when taking a Greyhound from Vancouver to San Francisco.
How much time do you have, and how much road to you want to go tripping down (in a manner of speaking)?
Personally would be tempted to drive
> from Seattle to Port Angeles WA, then ferry to Victoria BC > from Vic via Swartz Bay > Tsawwassen ferry to Vancouver > from Vancouver to Banff via Trans-Canada & Coquihalla Highways to Banff NP > from Banff via Alberta to CN Waterton Lakes-US Glacier NP (> alternative from Van, take highway across southern BC just north of border to Crowsnest Pass, an amazing road crossing several mountain ranges interspersed with big lakes and valleys > from Waterton/Glacier west to Cour d'Alene ID then Spokane WA > from Spokane to Grand Coulee Dam and the not-to-be-missed Dry Falls > from Dry Falls to Wenatchee to Leavenworth to Stevens Pass and back to Seattle.
Plenty of alternatives along this general route.
For example, you can go from Seattle directly to Port Angeles via Bainbridge Island ferry; OR you can head down to Olympia, then west and north on US 101 to Pacific Coast then via Forks to PA from the west.
Can't believe Hague is being seriously suggested. The guy isn't even an MP. How would that work, then?
Thing is, in a "Sunak under a bus tomorrow" scenario, someone has to be PM, and the alternatives are all utterly absurd.
The same will probably be the case for a 2025 leadership election.
Arguably, the most relevant news on the "next Conservative PM" front is Rupert Harrison's selection in Bicester for the Conservatives. Because I suspect we need to look for someone who can say that 2019-24 was nothing to do with them.
But 2010-2016 was plenty to do with him. What followed was sown then. I suspect the next Tory PM isn't an MP yet and won't fight this election. Just like Cameron in 1997.
Dave was Lamont's Spad at Black Wednesday, so that's probably survivable.
Can't believe Hague is being seriously suggested. The guy isn't even an MP. How would that work, then?
Thing is, in a "Sunak under a bus tomorrow" scenario, someone has to be PM, and the alternatives are all utterly absurd.
The same will probably be the case for a 2025 leadership election.
Arguably, the most relevant news on the "next Conservative PM" front is Rupert Harrison's selection in Bicester for the Conservatives. Because I suspect we need to look for someone who can say that 2019-24 was nothing to do with them.
Mordaunt / Badenoch.... knowing how these selection things go, back the one with the biggest boobs.
Though in 2019, the party went for the man who made the biggest boobs, so progress of a sort.
It's worth remembering that, excellent as she was at wielding a ceremonial sword, Penny Mordaunt was all over the place during the last-but-one leadership contest. Essentially, the more she spoke, the more her support faltered.
The last thing the Tories need is another vacuous blonde with no achievements to their name but with a great capacity for self-promotion, telling lies and being photographed. Aren't Johnson and Truss enough for them? .
So you’re saying that Sir Michael Fabricant shouldn’t go for the top job?
The only 'top job' he needs involves a large knife and his head.
Whether that stops at taking his hair off, I leave up to you.
As I've mentioned more than a few times, Penny Mordaunt is one of the very few modern politicians I've seen who can project both empathy and authority.
The Tories should make use of that.
Why is empathy important in a politician?
Because it's a fundamental part of human emotional interaction.
You don't have to be an emotional sponge, but some level of understanding is not too much to ask.
I'm starting to think a wipeout is possible, or it will be if Farage comes on the pitch in the 90th minute. I'm hearing core Conservatives giving up now - who are solid base.
Even my Dad, who's so staunch he makes @HYUFD look like a floating voter, has said they don't deserve another term. And I agreed with him.
He's never come close to saying anything like that before in his life.
In the longer term it will be a good thing for your tribe. A properly functioning democracy needs a properly functioning centre right party. And since November 1990 yours hasn’t really been able to figure out what its core principles are. The same could be said for Labour of course but Blair did at least have some vision of radical centrism IMHO.
We dont have any properly function parties of any colour. They are all idiots who just want to continue the status quo that ended us in the shit we are in.
Fortunately it is just possible that deliverance is at hand. An economy based on property speculation, which is what we now have, cannot survive a prolonged period of very high interest rates - and there's no particular reason to suppose that the BoE will stop with a base rate of 6%, which is the current peak number that economic analysts seem to have plucked out of thin air. Inflation is proving very sticky and the BoE has no choice but to keep applying more and more downward pressure on the economy if it isn't to risk stagflation, followed by a collapse in international investor consequence in the UK and a Sterling crisis.
The existing socio-economic system is engineered to favour existing property owners, and to redistribute the stagnant pool of available wealth from the poor to the rich, principally via the inflation of asset prices and rents. We are long overdue a major downward correction in house prices, and such a collapse is to be welcomed. A huge spike in interest rates would make this very much more likely. Good. Bring it on.
And yet the lib dems are already talking about helping mortagees and I suspect soon to be followed by labour and cons
I genuinely don't think the idea will fly - hence the fact that Labour aren't already weaponizing it against the Government. Even political expediency must give way to mathematics: propping up homeowners by using funds from general taxation, including that paid by renters and the poor, would not only look dreadful but would itself be inflationary (and therefore self-defeating: trying to shield mortgage payers from high interest rates would risk begetting even higher interest rates.) Thus, neither the Tories nor Labour will back it, because whichever of them is in power would have to make such nonsense work and they know it won't.
The Liberal Democrats, being (a) a minor party with no prospect of leading a Government, and (b) on a mission to out Tory the Tories (e.g. through radical Nimbyism) amongst their wavering core voters in Southern England, are free to promulgate any bullshit that they like, because they know they're never going to be asked to implement it.
It's worth remembering that, excellent as she was at wielding a ceremonial sword, Penny Mordaunt was all over the place during the last-but-one leadership contest. Essentially, the more she spoke, the more her support faltered.
The last thing the Tories need is another vacuous blonde with no achievements to their name but with a great capacity for self-promotion, telling lies and being photographed. Aren't Johnson and Truss enough for them? .
So you’re saying that Sir Michael Fabricant shouldn’t go for the top job?
The only 'top job' he needs involves a large knife and his head.
Whether that stops at taking his hair off, I leave up to you.
"A significant proportion of the population will see their savings wiped out because of the rise in interest rates and thus higher mortgage repayments."
A question for those who have recently taken out a mortgage.
Post the Financial Crisis the FCA introduced affordability tests. Do those tests check whether the mortgage is affordable at higher interest rates or only at the rate then chosen?
Because if not there would seem to be something wrong with those rules. But if so were the banks applying them or is it that people could afford the mortgages even if interest rates went higher?
I'm trying to see whether there is a regulatory failure here or not.
Can't believe Hague is being seriously suggested. The guy isn't even an MP. How would that work, then?
Thing is, in a "Sunak under a bus tomorrow" scenario, someone has to be PM, and the alternatives are all utterly absurd.
The same will probably be the case for a 2025 leadership election.
Arguably, the most relevant news on the "next Conservative PM" front is Rupert Harrison's selection in Bicester for the Conservatives. Because I suspect we need to look for someone who can say that 2019-24 was nothing to do with them.
But 2010-2016 was plenty to do with him. What followed was sown then. I suspect the next Tory PM isn't an MP yet and won't fight this election. Just like Cameron in 1997.
Point of pedantry.
My boy Dave (pbuh) did fight the 1997 general election.
He was the Tory candidate in Stafford, and in his words
Can't believe Hague is being seriously suggested. The guy isn't even an MP. How would that work, then?
Thing is, in a "Sunak under a bus tomorrow" scenario, someone has to be PM, and the alternatives are all utterly absurd.
The same will probably be the case for a 2025 leadership election.
Arguably, the most relevant news on the "next Conservative PM" front is Rupert Harrison's selection in Bicester for the Conservatives. Because I suspect we need to look for someone who can say that 2019-24 was nothing to do with them.
Mordaunt / Badenoch.... knowing how these selection things go, back the one with the biggest boobs.
With MPs of all types variously characterised as tits or arses, there is clearly a zonal divergence in parliament.
Can't believe Hague is being seriously suggested. The guy isn't even an MP. How would that work, then?
Thing is, in a "Sunak under a bus tomorrow" scenario, someone has to be PM, and the alternatives are all utterly absurd.
The same will probably be the case for a 2025 leadership election.
Arguably, the most relevant news on the "next Conservative PM" front is Rupert Harrison's selection in Bicester for the Conservatives. Because I suspect we need to look for someone who can say that 2019-24 was nothing to do with them.
But 2010-2016 was plenty to do with him. What followed was sown then. I suspect the next Tory PM isn't an MP yet and won't fight this election. Just like Cameron in 1997.
Point of pedantry.
My boy Dave (pbuh) did fight the 1997 general election.
He was the Tory candidate in Stafford, and his words
Can't believe Hague is being seriously suggested. The guy isn't even an MP. How would that work, then?
Thing is, in a "Sunak under a bus tomorrow" scenario, someone has to be PM, and the alternatives are all utterly absurd.
The same will probably be the case for a 2025 leadership election.
Arguably, the most relevant news on the "next Conservative PM" front is Rupert Harrison's selection in Bicester for the Conservatives. Because I suspect we need to look for someone who can say that 2019-24 was nothing to do with them.
But 2010-2016 was plenty to do with him. What followed was sown then. I suspect the next Tory PM isn't an MP yet and won't fight this election. Just like Cameron in 1997.
Point of pedantry.
My boy Dave (pbuh) did fight the 1997 general election.
He was the Tory candidate in Stafford, and his words
'I fought Stafford and Stafford fought back.'
Plenty of parallels then for Harrison fighting Bicester & Woodstock and coming off worst.
On the subject of the next Tory leader, the field of potential candidates may be significantly thinned after the next GE.
"A significant proportion of the population will see their savings wiped out because of the rise in interest rates and thus higher mortgage repayments."
A question for those who have recently taken out a mortgage.
Post the Financial Crisis the FCA introduced affordability tests. Do those tests check whether the mortgage is affordable at higher interest rates or only at the rate then chosen?
Because if not there would seem to be something wrong with those rules. But if so were the banks applying them or is it that people could afford the mortgages even if interest rates went higher?
I'm trying to see whether there is a regulatory failure here or not.
Thanks.
I remortgaged 18 months ago.
There was no question as to how I would afford a rise in interest rates.
Mind you, I was fixing for five years because not being stupid I thought rates would go up quite fast.
Looks like I missed the latest lab-leak shouts today.
As I've long been interested in finding out what actually happened, I'm still disappointed. All we've seen in recent weeks is reheating of the same old stuff - and then one place citing another, and someone else citing them, and all of this supposed to be new or greater evidence?
The "three lab workers got ill with 'flu or a bad cold and we all know that MUST mean covid," thing has been around for literally years now. Even sometimes with names attached. But all three were back to work quickly, no-one was seriously ill, and, rather importantly, when tested for seropositivity, no-one at WIV had had covid before.
And these people were still there. And still publishing papers and in apparently good odour there, which is curious if they did indeed cause millions of deaths in China and a huge impact to China's economy, and cause it to fall under suspicion worldwide, given that China is, you know, a massively authoritarian regime and can be quite harsh.
The fact that it was the worst flu season in China in a decade in late 2019 (and yes, the country was being hit by an influenza virus, not a coronavirus) should maybe be taken into account when considering that a few people working in a decent-sized institute in one of China's biggest cities did get flu that winter.
But, as I said, this is nothing new, and no useful evidence has been put forwards.
You can't get from RaTG13 to SARS-CoV2 by passing it through lab animals. The entire furin cleavage site thing was an irrelevance, because it's not that unusual in coronaviruses as it turns out (SARS-MERS has one, for example).
And the US Intelligence Community had all this information (obviously, as it's them whose had to declassify it) when they concluded:
I know Leon is very excitable on this and for some reason sees it as some sort of identification with his own intellect, but if those who've had the expertise and this information for so long are 4-2-2 on zoonosis-unsure-lab leak (and the two on lab leak are split as to which lab, one being WCDC and the other WIV), then I'm not seeing a conclusion so far.
I've said all along I can see either being plausible. The lab leak has become less plausible (its main selling point is that it's in the same city - but then again, of China's ten largest cities, seven have a biological research lab with coronaviruses, and you need a large city for the big superspreading, anyway) - the furin cleavage site wasn't a big deal, none of the viruses cited were close enough, the structure of SARS-CoV-2 isn't pointing to artificiality. Zoonosis has become more plausible (more things tracked down around the wet market, two separate lineages jumped across, which points to zoonosis rather than leakage, unless it's a continued and repeated leakage).
But both are still on the table and useful evidence can swing it back. Not seen yet, though.
All that bollocks about the market lineages has been debunked. Do keep up
The last move of the wet marketeers will be to pivot from “it definitely came from the market, the lab leak is a mad conspiracy/highly unlikely” to “oh well we will probably never know, let’s move on quickly ok thanks”
Indeed that is one move in the New York Times today “we will never know”
“U.S. Intelligence Agencies May Never Find Covid’s Origins, Officials Say”
But Tory members are so high up the demographic curve that they are dying off at an alarming rate...
No they are not. Given life expectancies and the late-life care which your older Conservative Party member can no doubt afford, somebody mid-seventies will have about fifteen years in front of them. Unpleasant years, but still there and still capable of putting a cross on a postal vote form.
We keep saying that they are dying off, but there are A LOT of pensioners and for around the next ten-fifteen years they will remain the dominant force in British politics. When it switches it will switch fast as they begin to be outnumbered by younger votes in sufficient proportion to outweigh differential turnout by age, but until then it will be pensionerism all the way...
I would just gently suggest that as my wife and I close in on our diamond wedding year, considering our ages (79+ & 83) we have never been more content and, whilst obviously not as mobile as we were, these are the best years of a long and contented 'hard working life' with 3 married children (57, 52 & 47) and 5 grandchildren, most of whom live close by
When the discussion turns to reviling the elderly, the missing element is most each and everyone of them is greatly loved by their children, grandchildren and great grandchildren, who certainly would not recognise the opprobrium some want to direct to them and yes, even some of us who voted remain
The good book says 'honour your father and your mother that your days may be long' and wise words
My marriage is coming up to the 25 year mark this summer. What should I do? Bit late for a big party as our friends will already have plans. Exotic long weekend somewhere? If so where?
Where did you honeymoon? Maybe a reprise?
That’s a thought. It was the Alpujarras, a place called Yegen. As featured in “South from Granada” by Gerald Brenan.
Looks like I missed the latest lab-leak shouts today.
As I've long been interested in finding out what actually happened, I'm still disappointed. All we've seen in recent weeks is reheating of the same old stuff - and then one place citing another, and someone else citing them, and all of this supposed to be new or greater evidence?
The "three lab workers got ill with 'flu or a bad cold and we all know that MUST mean covid," thing has been around for literally years now. Even sometimes with names attached. But all three were back to work quickly, no-one was seriously ill, and, rather importantly, when tested for seropositivity, no-one at WIV had had covid before.
And these people were still there. And still publishing papers and in apparently good odour there, which is curious if they did indeed cause millions of deaths in China and a huge impact to China's economy, and cause it to fall under suspicion worldwide, given that China is, you know, a massively authoritarian regime and can be quite harsh.
The fact that it was the worst flu season in China in a decade in late 2019 (and yes, the country was being hit by an influenza virus, not a coronavirus) should maybe be taken into account when considering that a few people working in a decent-sized institute in one of China's biggest cities did get flu that winter.
But, as I said, this is nothing new, and no useful evidence has been put forwards.
You can't get from RaTG13 to SARS-CoV2 by passing it through lab animals. The entire furin cleavage site thing was an irrelevance, because it's not that unusual in coronaviruses as it turns out (SARS-MERS has one, for example).
And the US Intelligence Community had all this information (obviously, as it's them whose had to declassify it) when they concluded:
I know Leon is very excitable on this and for some reason sees it as some sort of identification with his own intellect, but if those who've had the expertise and this information for so long are 4-2-2 on zoonosis-unsure-lab leak (and the two on lab leak are split as to which lab, one being WCDC and the other WIV), then I'm not seeing a conclusion so far.
I've said all along I can see either being plausible. The lab leak has become less plausible (its main selling point is that it's in the same city - but then again, of China's ten largest cities, seven have a biological research lab with coronaviruses, and you need a large city for the big superspreading, anyway) - the furin cleavage site wasn't a big deal, none of the viruses cited were close enough, the structure of SARS-CoV-2 isn't pointing to artificiality. Zoonosis has become more plausible (more things tracked down around the wet market, two separate lineages jumped across, which points to zoonosis rather than leakage, unless it's a continued and repeated leakage).
But both are still on the table and useful evidence can swing it back. Not seen yet, though.
Haven't you heard? Leon's definitively called on all his *massive* scientific expertise and proclaimed it was a lab leak. Indeed, he's called on anyone who doubted the splendour of his dribblings to pay him money.
His expertise in this field is unsurpassed, after all.
It’s alright, I offered double or quits on UAPs being revealed as alien craft with a propensity to crash, but he’s not biting, the craven coward that he is.
"A significant proportion of the population will see their savings wiped out because of the rise in interest rates and thus higher mortgage repayments."
A question for those who have recently taken out a mortgage.
Post the Financial Crisis the FCA introduced affordability tests. Do those tests check whether the mortgage is affordable at higher interest rates or only at the rate then chosen?
Because if not there would seem to be something wrong with those rules. But if so were the banks applying them or is it that people could afford the mortgages even if interest rates went higher?
I'm trying to see whether there is a regulatory failure here or not.
Thanks.
I remortgaged 18 months ago.
There was no question as to how I would afford a rise in interest rates.
Mind you, I was fixing for five years because not being stupid I thought rates would go up quite fast.
I just remortgaged. They were completely unbothered by anything, even the fact I'm going on a career break.
I've got a bit in the bank but it was scary how easy it was.
But this evening I’m drinking a basic 11% Mosel Riesling from Lidl and it’s very nice.
On topic, as someone who’s like to see the Tories in the wilderness for at least two terms I really don’t want Mordaunt. She’s too likeable and sensible sounding. I want a version of IDS in there: in equal parts bonkers and ineffectual.
A nice Rousanne from the Rhône.
Lovely. My favourite whites are chewy fudgy Southern Rhône ones, Marsanne-Rousanne and Grenache blanc.
I'm really quite enamoured of English whites at the moment. The Bacchus grape works very well it seems. Otherwise Puligny Montrachet all the way!
The giveaway with most English wine is that they use grapes that are unheard of anywhere else in the winemaking world.
Your last couple of posts are like some wine commentator from the 1990s. Or a wine equivalent of that Waterstones man article in this week’s new statesman.
There’s a relatively big and ambitious planting going on this year in your neck of the woods. At gatcombe park. The issue with winemaking in the IoW is winery facilities but I assume they are building their own. The climate and soils are ideal.
When they can make wine out of proper grapes, is the time to take notice.
Yep, definitely a wine commentator from the 1990s. The golden era of Reichensteiner, Huxelrebe and Madeleine Angevine. The days before climate change.
I thought Ian was a Lib Dem but evidently not. That’s not a Lib Dem mindset.
pB travellers, looks like I am going to have a day or two in Miami later this year, where best to stay, and what things to see, other than all the filming locations of the Bad Boys trilogy?
"A significant proportion of the population will see their savings wiped out because of the rise in interest rates and thus higher mortgage repayments."
A question for those who have recently taken out a mortgage.
Post the Financial Crisis the FCA introduced affordability tests. Do those tests check whether the mortgage is affordable at higher interest rates or only at the rate then chosen?
Because if not there would seem to be something wrong with those rules. But if so were the banks applying them or is it that people could afford the mortgages even if interest rates went higher?
I'm trying to see whether there is a regulatory failure here or not.
Thanks.
We were fixing for ten years and only stress tested at that rate, which is fair enough. I don’t think enough is done in general though.
Can't believe Hague is being seriously suggested. The guy isn't even an MP. How would that work, then?
Thing is, in a "Sunak under a bus tomorrow" scenario, someone has to be PM, and the alternatives are all utterly absurd.
The same will probably be the case for a 2025 leadership election.
Arguably, the most relevant news on the "next Conservative PM" front is Rupert Harrison's selection in Bicester for the Conservatives. Because I suspect we need to look for someone who can say that 2019-24 was nothing to do with them.
But 2010-2016 was plenty to do with him. What followed was sown then. I suspect the next Tory PM isn't an MP yet and won't fight this election. Just like Cameron in 1997.
Point of pedantry.
My boy Dave (pbuh) did fight the 1997 general election.
He was the Tory candidate in Stafford, and his words
'I fought Stafford and Stafford fought back.'
Plenty of parallels then for Harrison fighting Bicester & Woodstock and coming off worst.
On the subject of the next Tory leader, the field of potential candidates may be significantly thinned after the next GE.
That might actually help Penny.
In terms of real targets in South Hants, Labour have Southampton and the Lib Dems gave Winchester/Eastleigh to play with. And in terms of hate figures, Suella is next door in Fareham & Waterlooville.
Penny's Portsmouth seat might be quite quiet by comparison.
"A significant proportion of the population will see their savings wiped out because of the rise in interest rates and thus higher mortgage repayments."
A question for those who have recently taken out a mortgage.
Post the Financial Crisis the FCA introduced affordability tests. Do those tests check whether the mortgage is affordable at higher interest rates or only at the rate then chosen?
Because if not there would seem to be something wrong with those rules. But if so were the banks applying them or is it that people could afford the mortgages even if interest rates went higher?
I'm trying to see whether there is a regulatory failure here or not.
Thanks.
I remortgaged 18 months ago.
There was no question as to how I would afford a rise in interest rates.
Mind you, I was fixing for five years because not being stupid I thought rates would go up quite fast.
I just remortgaged. They were completely unbothered by anything, even the fact I'm going on a career break.
I've got a bit in the bank but it was a a bit scary how easy it was.
I do hope they're that sanguine if I try to port my mortgage in the next few months. Makes everything much easier if they are.
I'm starting to think a wipeout is possible, or it will be if Farage comes on the pitch in the 90th minute. I'm hearing core Conservatives giving up now - who are solid base.
Even my Dad, who's so staunch he makes @HYUFD look like a floating voter, has said they don't deserve another term. And I agreed with him.
He's never come close to saying anything like that before in his life.
In the longer term it will be a good thing for your tribe. A properly functioning democracy needs a properly functioning centre right party. And since November 1990 yours hasn’t really been able to figure out what its core principles are. The same could be said for Labour of course but Blair did at least have some vision of radical centrism IMHO.
We dont have any properly function parties of any colour. They are all idiots who just want to continue the status quo that ended us in the shit we are in.
Fortunately it is just possible that deliverance is at hand. An economy based on property speculation, which is what we now have, cannot survive a prolonged period of very high interest rates - and there's no particular reason to suppose that the BoE will stop with a base rate of 6%, which is the current peak number that economic analysts seem to have plucked out of thin air. Inflation is proving very sticky and the BoE has no choice but to keep applying more and more downward pressure on the economy if it isn't to risk stagflation, followed by a collapse in international investor consequence in the UK and a Sterling crisis.
The existing socio-economic system is engineered to favour existing property owners, and to redistribute the stagnant pool of available wealth from the poor to the rich, principally via the inflation of asset prices and rents. We are long overdue a major downward correction in house prices, and such a collapse is to be welcomed. A huge spike in interest rates would make this very much more likely. Good. Bring it on.
And yet the lib dems are already talking about helping mortagees and I suspect soon to be followed by labour and cons
I genuinely don't think the idea will fly - hence the fact that Labour aren't already weaponizing it against the Government. Even political expediency must give way to mathematics: propping up homeowners by using funds from general taxation, including that paid by renters and the poor, would not only look dreadful but would itself be inflationary (and therefore self-defeating: trying to shield mortgage payers from high interest rates would risk begetting even higher interest rates.) Thus, neither the Tories nor Labour will back it, because whichever of them is in power would have to make such nonsense work and they know it won't.
The Liberal Democrats, being (a) a minor party with no prospect of leading a Government, and (b) on a mission to out Tory the Tories (e.g. through radical Nimbyism) amongst their wavering core voters in Southern England, are free to promulgate any bullshit that they like, because they know they're never going to be asked to implement it.
That is what people thought before 2010 when the LDs ended up joining a coalition government. If 2024 is a hung parliament they would likely be Kingmakers again (albeit probably joining with Labour this time)
I'm starting to think a wipeout is possible, or it will be if Farage comes on the pitch in the 90th minute. I'm hearing core Conservatives giving up now - who are solid base.
Even my Dad, who's so staunch he makes @HYUFD look like a floating voter, has said they don't deserve another term. And I agreed with him.
He's never come close to saying anything like that before in his life.
In the longer term it will be a good thing for your tribe. A properly functioning democracy needs a properly functioning centre right party. And since November 1990 yours hasn’t really been able to figure out what its core principles are. The same could be said for Labour of course but Blair did at least have some vision of radical centrism IMHO.
We dont have any properly function parties of any colour. They are all idiots who just want to continue the status quo that ended us in the shit we are in.
Fortunately it is just possible that deliverance is at hand. An economy based on property speculation, which is what we now have, cannot survive a prolonged period of very high interest rates - and there's no particular reason to suppose that the BoE will stop with a base rate of 6%, which is the current peak number that economic analysts seem to have plucked out of thin air. Inflation is proving very sticky and the BoE has no choice but to keep applying more and more downward pressure on the economy if it isn't to risk stagflation, followed by a collapse in international investor consequence in the UK and a Sterling crisis.
The existing socio-economic system is engineered to favour existing property owners, and to redistribute the stagnant pool of available wealth from the poor to the rich, principally via the inflation of asset prices and rents. We are long overdue a major downward correction in house prices, and such a collapse is to be welcomed. A huge spike in interest rates would make this very much more likely. Good. Bring it on.
And yet the lib dems are already talking about helping mortagees and I suspect soon to be followed by labour and cons
I genuinely don't think the idea will fly - hence the fact that Labour aren't already weaponizing it against the Government. Even political expediency must give way to mathematics: propping up homeowners by using funds from general taxation, including that paid by renters and the poor, would not only look dreadful but would itself be inflationary (and therefore self-defeating: trying to shield mortgage payers from high interest rates would risk begetting even higher interest rates.) Thus, neither the Tories nor Labour will back it, because whichever of them is in power would have to make such nonsense work and they know it won't.
The Liberal Democrats, being (a) a minor party with no prospect of leading a Government, and (b) on a mission to out Tory the Tories (e.g. through radical Nimbyism) amongst their wavering core voters in Southern England, are free to promulgate any bullshit that they like, because they know they're never going to be asked to implement it.
But this evening I’m drinking a basic 11% Mosel Riesling from Lidl and it’s very nice.
On topic, as someone who’s like to see the Tories in the wilderness for at least two terms I really don’t want Mordaunt. She’s too likeable and sensible sounding. I want a version of IDS in there: in equal parts bonkers and ineffectual.
A nice Rousanne from the Rhône.
Lovely. My favourite whites are chewy fudgy Southern Rhône ones, Marsanne-Rousanne and Grenache blanc.
I'm really quite enamoured of English whites at the moment. The Bacchus grape works very well it seems. Otherwise Puligny Montrachet all the way!
The giveaway with most English wine is that they use grapes that are unheard of anywhere else in the winemaking world.
Your last couple of posts are like some wine commentator from the 1990s. Or a wine equivalent of that Waterstones man article in this week’s new statesman.
There’s a relatively big and ambitious planting going on this year in your neck of the woods. At gatcombe park. The issue with winemaking in the IoW is winery facilities but I assume they are building their own. The climate and soils are ideal.
When they can make wine out of proper grapes, is the time to take notice.
Yep, definitely a wine commentator from the 1990s. The golden era of Reichensteiner, Huxelrebe and Madeleine Angevine. The days before climate change.
I thought Ian was a Lib Dem but evidently not. That’s not a Lib Dem mindset.
I would have thought that some Lib Dems considered english winegrowing a bit gammony. Perhaps there was a time when it was.
As I've mentioned more than a few times, Penny Mordaunt is one of the very few modern politicians I've seen who can project both empathy and authority.
The Tories should make use of that.
Why is empathy important in a politician?
Because generally they can't display competence so empathy is about the next best thing?
Competence without empathy isn't great either, the Nazis were competent conquering most of Europe and murdering lots of Jews.
They didn't have much empathy though and were also evil
I hope their use has led to other long range stuff being provided covertly by others, since we probably didn't have that many!
I reckon they have, because that doesn't look like a big enough bang, nor does it in any of the other videos. The damage looks a lot like the HIMARS hits on the Kherson bridge.
I'm starting to think a wipeout is possible, or it will be if Farage comes on the pitch in the 90th minute. I'm hearing core Conservatives giving up now - who are solid base.
Even my Dad, who's so staunch he makes @HYUFD look like a floating voter, has said they don't deserve another term. And I agreed with him.
He's never come close to saying anything like that before in his life.
In the longer term it will be a good thing for your tribe. A properly functioning democracy needs a properly functioning centre right party. And since November 1990 yours hasn’t really been able to figure out what its core principles are. The same could be said for Labour of course but Blair did at least have some vision of radical centrism IMHO.
We dont have any properly function parties of any colour. They are all idiots who just want to continue the status quo that ended us in the shit we are in.
Fortunately it is just possible that deliverance is at hand. An economy based on property speculation, which is what we now have, cannot survive a prolonged period of very high interest rates - and there's no particular reason to suppose that the BoE will stop with a base rate of 6%, which is the current peak number that economic analysts seem to have plucked out of thin air. Inflation is proving very sticky and the BoE has no choice but to keep applying more and more downward pressure on the economy if it isn't to risk stagflation, followed by a collapse in international investor consequence in the UK and a Sterling crisis.
The existing socio-economic system is engineered to favour existing property owners, and to redistribute the stagnant pool of available wealth from the poor to the rich, principally via the inflation of asset prices and rents. We are long overdue a major downward correction in house prices, and such a collapse is to be welcomed. A huge spike in interest rates would make this very much more likely. Good. Bring it on.
And yet the lib dems are already talking about helping mortagees and I suspect soon to be followed by labour and cons
I genuinely don't think the idea will fly - hence the fact that Labour aren't already weaponizing it against the Government. Even political expediency must give way to mathematics: propping up homeowners by using funds from general taxation, including that paid by renters and the poor, would not only look dreadful but would itself be inflationary (and therefore self-defeating: trying to shield mortgage payers from high interest rates would risk begetting even higher interest rates.) Thus, neither the Tories nor Labour will back it, because whichever of them is in power would have to make such nonsense work and they know it won't.
The Liberal Democrats, being (a) a minor party with no prospect of leading a Government, and (b) on a mission to out Tory the Tories (e.g. through radical Nimbyism) amongst their wavering core voters in Southern England, are free to promulgate any bullshit that they like, because they know they're never going to be asked to implement it.
Can't believe Hague is being seriously suggested. The guy isn't even an MP. How would that work, then?
Thing is, in a "Sunak under a bus tomorrow" scenario, someone has to be PM, and the alternatives are all utterly absurd.
The same will probably be the case for a 2025 leadership election.
Arguably, the most relevant news on the "next Conservative PM" front is Rupert Harrison's selection in Bicester for the Conservatives. Because I suspect we need to look for someone who can say that 2019-24 was nothing to do with them.
But 2010-2016 was plenty to do with him. What followed was sown then. I suspect the next Tory PM isn't an MP yet and won't fight this election. Just like Cameron in 1997.
Point of pedantry.
My boy Dave (pbuh) did fight the 1997 general election.
He was the Tory candidate in Stafford, and his words
'I fought Stafford and Stafford fought back.'
Plenty of parallels then for Harrison fighting Bicester & Woodstock and coming off worst.
On the subject of the next Tory leader, the field of potential candidates may be significantly thinned after the next GE.
You need a list of the cabinet, ranked in order of Parliamentary majority.
Throw out anyone on less than about 15,000 and then weigh the merits of the probable survivors. Barclay, Badenoch, Tugendhat and Braverman, for example, all look likely to weather anything short of a Canada '93 apocalypse. Mordaunt, however, could easily find herself in a close race.
But Tory members are so high up the demographic curve that they are dying off at an alarming rate...
No they are not. Given life expectancies and the late-life care which your older Conservative Party member can no doubt afford, somebody mid-seventies will have about fifteen years in front of them. Unpleasant years, but still there and still capable of putting a cross on a postal vote form.
We keep saying that they are dying off, but there are A LOT of pensioners and for around the next ten-fifteen years they will remain the dominant force in British politics. When it switches it will switch fast as they begin to be outnumbered by younger votes in sufficient proportion to outweigh differential turnout by age, but until then it will be pensionerism all the way...
Even then the median voter will be aged 50 still not 30
Taking into account both raw demographics and propensity to vote, I believe that the median voter is aged about 55. This value is likely to keep creeping slowly up for the foreseeable, because so many younger people aren't forming families for various reasons, not least the crippling cost. Yet another issue that can be put down to the full spectrum catastrophe that is the British property market.
Not that this is any real use to the Conservatives in the long run, because people are no longer moving rightwards as they age. Being the party of the landed interest - minted pensioner owner-occupiers, their heirs and rentiers - only wins elections so long as there are enough of those people around to keep voting for you. Those who have neither significant assets nor any realistic prospect of accruing them have nothing to conserve and, consequently, no use for conservatism.
By 55 plenty are starting to inherit property (and most should have bought a property with a mortgage well before then anyway).
I'm 56. I don't know many of my cohort who have lost both parents.
By 56 if your parents had you at 30 they would be 86. On average most are dead by 86
I'm starting to think a wipeout is possible, or it will be if Farage comes on the pitch in the 90th minute. I'm hearing core Conservatives giving up now - who are solid base.
Even my Dad, who's so staunch he makes @HYUFD look like a floating voter, has said they don't deserve another term. And I agreed with him.
He's never come close to saying anything like that before in his life.
In the longer term it will be a good thing for your tribe. A properly functioning democracy needs a properly functioning centre right party. And since November 1990 yours hasn’t really been able to figure out what its core principles are. The same could be said for Labour of course but Blair did at least have some vision of radical centrism IMHO.
We dont have any properly function parties of any colour. They are all idiots who just want to continue the status quo that ended us in the shit we are in.
Fortunately it is just possible that deliverance is at hand. An economy based on property speculation, which is what we now have, cannot survive a prolonged period of very high interest rates - and there's no particular reason to suppose that the BoE will stop with a base rate of 6%, which is the current peak number that economic analysts seem to have plucked out of thin air. Inflation is proving very sticky and the BoE has no choice but to keep applying more and more downward pressure on the economy if it isn't to risk stagflation, followed by a collapse in international investor consequence in the UK and a Sterling crisis.
The existing socio-economic system is engineered to favour existing property owners, and to redistribute the stagnant pool of available wealth from the poor to the rich, principally via the inflation of asset prices and rents. We are long overdue a major downward correction in house prices, and such a collapse is to be welcomed. A huge spike in interest rates would make this very much more likely. Good. Bring it on.
And yet the lib dems are already talking about helping mortagees and I suspect soon to be followed by labour and cons
I genuinely don't think the idea will fly - hence the fact that Labour aren't already weaponizing it against the Government. Even political expediency must give way to mathematics: propping up homeowners by using funds from general taxation, including that paid by renters and the poor, would not only look dreadful but would itself be inflationary (and therefore self-defeating: trying to shield mortgage payers from high interest rates would risk begetting even higher interest rates.) Thus, neither the Tories nor Labour will back it, because whichever of them is in power would have to make such nonsense work and they know it won't.
The Liberal Democrats, being (a) a minor party with no prospect of leading a Government, and (b) on a mission to out Tory the Tories (e.g. through radical Nimbyism) amongst their wavering core voters in Southern England, are free to promulgate any bullshit that they like, because they know they're never going to be asked to implement it.
It would be a policy of SUPREME LUNACY
Shit.
Sunak will go for it, won't he?
He'll be tempted. But there really isn't any money.
I'm starting to think a wipeout is possible, or it will be if Farage comes on the pitch in the 90th minute. I'm hearing core Conservatives giving up now - who are solid base.
Even my Dad, who's so staunch he makes @HYUFD look like a floating voter, has said they don't deserve another term. And I agreed with him.
He's never come close to saying anything like that before in his life.
In the longer term it will be a good thing for your tribe. A properly functioning democracy needs a properly functioning centre right party. And since November 1990 yours hasn’t really been able to figure out what its core principles are. The same could be said for Labour of course but Blair did at least have some vision of radical centrism IMHO.
We dont have any properly function parties of any colour. They are all idiots who just want to continue the status quo that ended us in the shit we are in.
Fortunately it is just possible that deliverance is at hand. An economy based on property speculation, which is what we now have, cannot survive a prolonged period of very high interest rates - and there's no particular reason to suppose that the BoE will stop with a base rate of 6%, which is the current peak number that economic analysts seem to have plucked out of thin air. Inflation is proving very sticky and the BoE has no choice but to keep applying more and more downward pressure on the economy if it isn't to risk stagflation, followed by a collapse in international investor consequence in the UK and a Sterling crisis.
The existing socio-economic system is engineered to favour existing property owners, and to redistribute the stagnant pool of available wealth from the poor to the rich, principally via the inflation of asset prices and rents. We are long overdue a major downward correction in house prices, and such a collapse is to be welcomed. A huge spike in interest rates would make this very much more likely. Good. Bring it on.
And yet the lib dems are already talking about helping mortagees and I suspect soon to be followed by labour and cons
I genuinely don't think the idea will fly - hence the fact that Labour aren't already weaponizing it against the Government. Even political expediency must give way to mathematics: propping up homeowners by using funds from general taxation, including that paid by renters and the poor, would not only look dreadful but would itself be inflationary (and therefore self-defeating: trying to shield mortgage payers from high interest rates would risk begetting even higher interest rates.) Thus, neither the Tories nor Labour will back it, because whichever of them is in power would have to make such nonsense work and they know it won't.
The Liberal Democrats, being (a) a minor party with no prospect of leading a Government, and (b) on a mission to out Tory the Tories (e.g. through radical Nimbyism) amongst their wavering core voters in Southern England, are free to promulgate any bullshit that they like, because they know they're never going to be asked to implement it.
It would be a policy of SUPREME LUNACY
Shit.
Sunak will go for it, won't he?
He'll be tempted. But there really isn't any money.
"A significant proportion of the population will see their savings wiped out because of the rise in interest rates and thus higher mortgage repayments."
A question for those who have recently taken out a mortgage.
Post the Financial Crisis the FCA introduced affordability tests. Do those tests check whether the mortgage is affordable at higher interest rates or only at the rate then chosen?
Because if not there would seem to be something wrong with those rules. But if so were the banks applying them or is it that people could afford the mortgages even if interest rates went higher?
I'm trying to see whether there is a regulatory failure here or not.
Thanks.
IANAE but the FCA guidelines look rather vague to me:
(1) Under MCOB 11.6.5R , in taking account of likely future interest rate increases for the purposes of its assessment of whether the customer will be able to pay the sums due, a mortgage lender must consider the likely future interest rates over a minimum period of five years from the expected start of the term of the regulated mortgage contract (or variation), unless the interest rate under the regulated mortgage contract is fixed for a period of five years or more from that time, or for the duration of the regulated mortgage contract (or variation), if less than five years. (2) In coming to a view as to likely future interest rates, a mortgage lender must have regard to: (a) market expectations; and (b) any prevailing Financial Policy Committee recommendation on appropriate interest-rate stress tests; and must be able to justify the basis it uses by reference to (a) and (b). (3) For the purposes of this rule, even if the basis used by the mortgage lender in (2) indicates that interest rates are likely to fall, or to rise by less than 1%, during the first five years of the regulated mortgage contract (or variation), a mortgage lender must assume that interest rates will rise by a minimum of 1% over that period.
I'm starting to think a wipeout is possible, or it will be if Farage comes on the pitch in the 90th minute. I'm hearing core Conservatives giving up now - who are solid base.
Even my Dad, who's so staunch he makes @HYUFD look like a floating voter, has said they don't deserve another term. And I agreed with him.
He's never come close to saying anything like that before in his life.
In the longer term it will be a good thing for your tribe. A properly functioning democracy needs a properly functioning centre right party. And since November 1990 yours hasn’t really been able to figure out what its core principles are. The same could be said for Labour of course but Blair did at least have some vision of radical centrism IMHO.
We dont have any properly function parties of any colour. They are all idiots who just want to continue the status quo that ended us in the shit we are in.
Fortunately it is just possible that deliverance is at hand. An economy based on property speculation, which is what we now have, cannot survive a prolonged period of very high interest rates - and there's no particular reason to suppose that the BoE will stop with a base rate of 6%, which is the current peak number that economic analysts seem to have plucked out of thin air. Inflation is proving very sticky and the BoE has no choice but to keep applying more and more downward pressure on the economy if it isn't to risk stagflation, followed by a collapse in international investor consequence in the UK and a Sterling crisis.
The existing socio-economic system is engineered to favour existing property owners, and to redistribute the stagnant pool of available wealth from the poor to the rich, principally via the inflation of asset prices and rents. We are long overdue a major downward correction in house prices, and such a collapse is to be welcomed. A huge spike in interest rates would make this very much more likely. Good. Bring it on.
And yet the lib dems are already talking about helping mortagees and I suspect soon to be followed by labour and cons
I genuinely don't think the idea will fly - hence the fact that Labour aren't already weaponizing it against the Government. Even political expediency must give way to mathematics: propping up homeowners by using funds from general taxation, including that paid by renters and the poor, would not only look dreadful but would itself be inflationary (and therefore self-defeating: trying to shield mortgage payers from high interest rates would risk begetting even higher interest rates.) Thus, neither the Tories nor Labour will back it, because whichever of them is in power would have to make such nonsense work and they know it won't.
The Liberal Democrats, being (a) a minor party with no prospect of leading a Government, and (b) on a mission to out Tory the Tories (e.g. through radical Nimbyism) amongst their wavering core voters in Southern England, are free to promulgate any bullshit that they like, because they know they're never going to be asked to implement it.
It would be a policy of SUPREME LUNACY
Shit.
Sunak will go for it, won't he?
He'll be tempted. But there really isn't any money.
Is there?
Get rid of 40% tax relief on pensions, spend the money on a return to mortgage interest tax relief.
It's worth remembering that, excellent as she was at wielding a ceremonial sword, Penny Mordaunt was all over the place during the last-but-one leadership contest. Essentially, the more she spoke, the more her support faltered.
The last thing the Tories need is another vacuous blonde with no achievements to their name but with a great capacity for self-promotion, telling lies and being photographed. Aren't Johnson and Truss enough for them?
Badenoch had an an opportunity with the Post Office to do something worthwhile and just but has fluffed it.
I tend to the @Heathener view - that either because of disgust and anger or weariness with the whole shambolic lot of them the Tories could do very badly indeed. Why should anyone vote for a party which does not know its arse from its elbow.
Your dislike of Mordaunt - and the reasons you give for it are stupid IMV.
"vacuous blonde" - wtf does hair colour have to do with it? You'd be the first person calling a man sexist for saying that. Vacuous - ditto.
'no achievements to their name' - the same is true for most politicians. Blair, for instance. Or Cameron.
'capacity for self-promotion' - ditto.
'telling lies' - ditto. And I think you're being a little unfair in that respect as well.
'being photographed' - a surprising number of politicians fail even that test.
"Blonde" is an accurate description not a criticism. Who are you to tell people they can't use adjectives.
"Vacuous" - that is an accurate description of how she came across in the debates when she stood for party leader last time: her answers to questions were feeble, she had no policy positions to put forward, all she said was giddy.
"Self-promotion" - that is what she is good at hence all the nice articles about her. But there is no substance that I can see - and in that regard she seems rather more similar to Truss and Johnson and indeed Sunak than the break with them that is needed.
"Telling lies" - yes she lied over Brexit and her support for Brexit is not a sign of good judgment and she lied about what she tried to do over womens rights issues. She also dissembled about her time in the Navy. Small lies maybe but it is the fact that her default seems to be to lie when challenged which is the problem. Again it is reminiscent of Johnson. Integrity is something the Tories badly need.
She supported Truss pretty vocally during her ill-fated government and has Andrea Leadsom as her main advisor, which does not strike me as exhibiting good judgment. What achievements has she had in office?
As far as I can see the main reason so many men here like her is because they have the hots for her.
She does have presence which Sunak does not have. She can do jokes. Her response on the Privileges Committee report was well judged. So was Mrs May's and no-one is suggesting her.
But really it is not enough. Nowhere near. The current batch of senior wannabe leader Tories are all cut from the same cloth. The next leader with a chance of winning will be from the next generation not this one. They will need to be because they will need that time to rethink what Conservatism means and can offer in the 2030's and 2040's. I see no sign that Mordaunt or anyone else being touted is even beginning to think about this.
Oh and I criticise both men and women for how they look and dress because I think that when people go out in public they should make an effort to be presentable at the very least and elegant at best. If you cannot be bothered to make that effort stay at home.
But this evening I’m drinking a basic 11% Mosel Riesling from Lidl and it’s very nice.
On topic, as someone who’s like to see the Tories in the wilderness for at least two terms I really don’t want Mordaunt. She’s too likeable and sensible sounding. I want a version of IDS in there: in equal parts bonkers and ineffectual.
A nice Rousanne from the Rhône.
Lovely. My favourite whites are chewy fudgy Southern Rhône ones, Marsanne-Rousanne and Grenache blanc.
I'm really quite enamoured of English whites at the moment. The Bacchus grape works very well it seems. Otherwise Puligny Montrachet all the way!
The giveaway with most English wine is that they use grapes that are unheard of anywhere else in the winemaking world.
Your last couple of posts are like some wine commentator from the 1990s. Or a wine equivalent of that Waterstones man article in this week’s new statesman.
There’s a relatively big and ambitious planting going on this year in your neck of the woods. At gatcombe park. The issue with winemaking in the IoW is winery facilities but I assume they are building their own. The climate and soils are ideal.
When they can make wine out of proper grapes, is the time to take notice.
Yep, definitely a wine commentator from the 1990s. The golden era of Reichensteiner, Huxelrebe and Madeleine Angevine. The days before climate change.
I thought Ian was a Lib Dem but evidently not. That’s not a Lib Dem mindset.
I would have thought that some Lib Dems considered english winegrowing a bit gammony. Perhaps there was a time when it was.
No no no.
Rathfinny got planning permission for their winery construction thanks largely to interventions from Vince Cable.
Again, gammon and English wine is a 1970s-90s stereotype, when it was retired army majors making vinegar out of muller thurgau.
Look at the map of the presidential premier tour results. Strung out along the top calcareous slopes of burgundy and champagne are the deep yellows of Macron support. Winemaking is liberal centrism in a glass.
And I should add: any constituency with at least one productive vineyard is a blue wall Lib Dem target.
But this evening I’m drinking a basic 11% Mosel Riesling from Lidl and it’s very nice.
On topic, as someone who’s like to see the Tories in the wilderness for at least two terms I really don’t want Mordaunt. She’s too likeable and sensible sounding. I want a version of IDS in there: in equal parts bonkers and ineffectual.
A nice Rousanne from the Rhône.
Lovely. My favourite whites are chewy fudgy Southern Rhône ones, Marsanne-Rousanne and Grenache blanc.
I'm really quite enamoured of English whites at the moment. The Bacchus grape works very well it seems. Otherwise Puligny Montrachet all the way!
The giveaway with most English wine is that they use grapes that are unheard of anywhere else in the winemaking world.
Your last couple of posts are like some wine commentator from the 1990s. Or a wine equivalent of that Waterstones man article in this week’s new statesman.
There’s a relatively big and ambitious planting going on this year in your neck of the woods. At gatcombe park. The issue with winemaking in the IoW is winery facilities but I assume they are building their own. The climate and soils are ideal.
When they can make wine out of proper grapes, is the time to take notice.
Yep, definitely a wine commentator from the 1990s. The golden era of Reichensteiner, Huxelrebe and Madeleine Angevine. The days before climate change.
I thought Ian was a Lib Dem but evidently not. That’s not a Lib Dem mindset.
As already noted, there's madeleine angevine still out there, and it is orrible.
I'm starting to think a wipeout is possible, or it will be if Farage comes on the pitch in the 90th minute. I'm hearing core Conservatives giving up now - who are solid base.
Even my Dad, who's so staunch he makes @HYUFD look like a floating voter, has said they don't deserve another term. And I agreed with him.
He's never come close to saying anything like that before in his life.
I agree Casino. Possibly for different reasons to yourself and your dad (I know you're more exercised by the woke thing, I'm not) but quite simply today's Conservatives don't deserve our votes.
That's not to say I relish a Labour government, I don't. But hopefully some solid years of Opposition will bring us a Tory Opposition worthy of being in Government.
And if we have to have a Labour Government, then could be worse than Starmer.
I'm starting to think a wipeout is possible, or it will be if Farage comes on the pitch in the 90th minute. I'm hearing core Conservatives giving up now - who are solid base.
Even my Dad, who's so staunch he makes @HYUFD look like a floating voter, has said they don't deserve another term. And I agreed with him.
He's never come close to saying anything like that before in his life.
In the longer term it will be a good thing for your tribe. A properly functioning democracy needs a properly functioning centre right party. And since November 1990 yours hasn’t really been able to figure out what its core principles are. The same could be said for Labour of course but Blair did at least have some vision of radical centrism IMHO.
We dont have any properly function parties of any colour. They are all idiots who just want to continue the status quo that ended us in the shit we are in.
Fortunately it is just possible that deliverance is at hand. An economy based on property speculation, which is what we now have, cannot survive a prolonged period of very high interest rates - and there's no particular reason to suppose that the BoE will stop with a base rate of 6%, which is the current peak number that economic analysts seem to have plucked out of thin air. Inflation is proving very sticky and the BoE has no choice but to keep applying more and more downward pressure on the economy if it isn't to risk stagflation, followed by a collapse in international investor consequence in the UK and a Sterling crisis.
The existing socio-economic system is engineered to favour existing property owners, and to redistribute the stagnant pool of available wealth from the poor to the rich, principally via the inflation of asset prices and rents. We are long overdue a major downward correction in house prices, and such a collapse is to be welcomed. A huge spike in interest rates would make this very much more likely. Good. Bring it on.
And yet the lib dems are already talking about helping mortagees and I suspect soon to be followed by labour and cons
I genuinely don't think the idea will fly - hence the fact that Labour aren't already weaponizing it against the Government. Even political expediency must give way to mathematics: propping up homeowners by using funds from general taxation, including that paid by renters and the poor, would not only look dreadful but would itself be inflationary (and therefore self-defeating: trying to shield mortgage payers from high interest rates would risk begetting even higher interest rates.) Thus, neither the Tories nor Labour will back it, because whichever of them is in power would have to make such nonsense work and they know it won't.
The Liberal Democrats, being (a) a minor party with no prospect of leading a Government, and (b) on a mission to out Tory the Tories (e.g. through radical Nimbyism) amongst their wavering core voters in Southern England, are free to promulgate any bullshit that they like, because they know they're never going to be asked to implement it.
It would be a policy of SUPREME LUNACY
Shit.
Sunak will go for it, won't he?
No. I think the banks and building societies will be quietly told by Government that they are going to be responsible for absorbing most of those inevitable losses without chasing all the repossessions that would otherwise have been expected, if they want to pay out any bonuses in, oh, the next few years.
The next regulatory ICAAP stress testing round should be interesting.
But this evening I’m drinking a basic 11% Mosel Riesling from Lidl and it’s very nice.
On topic, as someone who’s like to see the Tories in the wilderness for at least two terms I really don’t want Mordaunt. She’s too likeable and sensible sounding. I want a version of IDS in there: in equal parts bonkers and ineffectual.
A nice Rousanne from the Rhône.
Lovely. My favourite whites are chewy fudgy Southern Rhône ones, Marsanne-Rousanne and Grenache blanc.
I'm really quite enamoured of English whites at the moment. The Bacchus grape works very well it seems. Otherwise Puligny Montrachet all the way!
The giveaway with most English wine is that they use grapes that are unheard of anywhere else in the winemaking world.
Your last couple of posts are like some wine commentator from the 1990s. Or a wine equivalent of that Waterstones man article in this week’s new statesman.
There’s a relatively big and ambitious planting going on this year in your neck of the woods. At gatcombe park. The issue with winemaking in the IoW is winery facilities but I assume they are building their own. The climate and soils are ideal.
When they can make wine out of proper grapes, is the time to take notice.
Yep, definitely a wine commentator from the 1990s. The golden era of Reichensteiner, Huxelrebe and Madeleine Angevine. The days before climate change.
I thought Ian was a Lib Dem but evidently not. That’s not a Lib Dem mindset.
I would have thought that some Lib Dems considered english winegrowing a bit gammony. Perhaps there was a time when it was.
No no no.
Rathfinny got planning permission for their winery construction thanks largely to interventions from Vince Cable.
Again, gammon and English wine is a 1970s-90s stereotype, when it was retired army majors making vinegar out of muller thurgau.
Look at the map of the presidential premier tour results. Strung out along the top calcareous slopes of burgundy and champagne are the deep yellows of Macron support. Winemaking is liberal centrism in a glass.
And in the cheap areas, where it's grape-growing as farming?
I'm starting to think a wipeout is possible, or it will be if Farage comes on the pitch in the 90th minute. I'm hearing core Conservatives giving up now - who are solid base.
Even my Dad, who's so staunch he makes @HYUFD look like a floating voter, has said they don't deserve another term. And I agreed with him.
He's never come close to saying anything like that before in his life.
In the longer term it will be a good thing for your tribe. A properly functioning democracy needs a properly functioning centre right party. And since November 1990 yours hasn’t really been able to figure out what its core principles are. The same could be said for Labour of course but Blair did at least have some vision of radical centrism IMHO.
We dont have any properly function parties of any colour. They are all idiots who just want to continue the status quo that ended us in the shit we are in.
Fortunately it is just possible that deliverance is at hand. An economy based on property speculation, which is what we now have, cannot survive a prolonged period of very high interest rates - and there's no particular reason to suppose that the BoE will stop with a base rate of 6%, which is the current peak number that economic analysts seem to have plucked out of thin air. Inflation is proving very sticky and the BoE has no choice but to keep applying more and more downward pressure on the economy if it isn't to risk stagflation, followed by a collapse in international investor consequence in the UK and a Sterling crisis.
The existing socio-economic system is engineered to favour existing property owners, and to redistribute the stagnant pool of available wealth from the poor to the rich, principally via the inflation of asset prices and rents. We are long overdue a major downward correction in house prices, and such a collapse is to be welcomed. A huge spike in interest rates would make this very much more likely. Good. Bring it on.
And yet the lib dems are already talking about helping mortagees and I suspect soon to be followed by labour and cons
I genuinely don't think the idea will fly - hence the fact that Labour aren't already weaponizing it against the Government. Even political expediency must give way to mathematics: propping up homeowners by using funds from general taxation, including that paid by renters and the poor, would not only look dreadful but would itself be inflationary (and therefore self-defeating: trying to shield mortgage payers from high interest rates would risk begetting even higher interest rates.) Thus, neither the Tories nor Labour will back it, because whichever of them is in power would have to make such nonsense work and they know it won't.
The Liberal Democrats, being (a) a minor party with no prospect of leading a Government, and (b) on a mission to out Tory the Tories (e.g. through radical Nimbyism) amongst their wavering core voters in Southern England, are free to promulgate any bullshit that they like, because they know they're never going to be asked to implement it.
That is what people thought before 2010 when the LDs ended up joining a coalition government. If 2024 is a hung parliament they would likely be Kingmakers again (albeit probably joining with Labour this time)
Prediction: the LDs, being once bitten, twice shy, will not go back into coalition again. They may have a certain amount of capacity to make mischief as holders of the balance of power in a Hung Parliament, but little leverage over core policy, because they've no choice of political partners. They're not going to vote no confidence in Starmer and invite another Tory administration to take over (and the same goes double for the SNP, of course.)
They'd be able to negotiate baubles from a Labour minority in exchange for permitting it a quieter life, but they're not, under such a scenario, going to wield enough power either to force major policy concessions (least of all on electoral reform, to give the obvious example,) or to convince ministers to take actions which they believe to be fundamentally wrong-headed.
I'm starting to think a wipeout is possible, or it will be if Farage comes on the pitch in the 90th minute. I'm hearing core Conservatives giving up now - who are solid base.
Even my Dad, who's so staunch he makes @HYUFD look like a floating voter, has said they don't deserve another term. And I agreed with him.
He's never come close to saying anything like that before in his life.
I agree Casino. Possibly for different reasons to yourself and your dad (I know you're more exercised by the woke thing, I'm not) but quite simply today's Conservatives don't deserve our votes.
That's not to say I relish a Labour government, I don't. But hopefully some solid years of Opposition will bring us a Tory Opposition worthy of being in Government.
And if we have to have a Labour Government, then could be worse than Starmer.
Up until the last few weeks I really thought CON could get out of it and give LAB a good run at the GE.
But its gone to complete shyte now - Rishi has no idea and the team behind him are also useless.
An absolutely Mediterranean twilight sky in Primrose Hill tonight….
Relatedly? -
3 separate causes:
- AMOC (Atlantic Méridional Overturning circulation) is in positive phase - North Atlantic Oscillation has been negative (though not so much now) with clear skies and strong insolation over the North Atlantic - The UN has banned sulphur in Marine fuels meaning ship emissions of cooling sulphites have collapsed (so called terminal warming)
Very interesting situation in the North Atlantic currently.
But Tory members are so high up the demographic curve that they are dying off at an alarming rate...
No they are not. Given life expectancies and the late-life care which your older Conservative Party member can no doubt afford, somebody mid-seventies will have about fifteen years in front of them. Unpleasant years, but still there and still capable of putting a cross on a postal vote form.
We keep saying that they are dying off, but there are A LOT of pensioners and for around the next ten-fifteen years they will remain the dominant force in British politics. When it switches it will switch fast as they begin to be outnumbered by younger votes in sufficient proportion to outweigh differential turnout by age, but until then it will be pensionerism all the way...
Even then the median voter will be aged 50 still not 30
Taking into account both raw demographics and propensity to vote, I believe that the median voter is aged about 55. This value is likely to keep creeping slowly up for the foreseeable, because so many younger people aren't forming families for various reasons, not least the crippling cost. Yet another issue that can be put down to the full spectrum catastrophe that is the British property market.
Not that this is any real use to the Conservatives in the long run, because people are no longer moving rightwards as they age. Being the party of the landed interest - minted pensioner owner-occupiers, their heirs and rentiers - only wins elections so long as there are enough of those people around to keep voting for you. Those who have neither significant assets nor any realistic prospect of accruing them have nothing to conserve and, consequently, no use for conservatism.
By 55 plenty are starting to inherit property (and most should have bought a property with a mortgage well before then anyway).
I'm 56. I don't know many of my cohort who have lost both parents.
By 56 if your parents had you at 30 they would be 86. On average most are dead by 86
"A significant proportion of the population will see their savings wiped out because of the rise in interest rates and thus higher mortgage repayments."
A question for those who have recently taken out a mortgage.
Post the Financial Crisis the FCA introduced affordability tests. Do those tests check whether the mortgage is affordable at higher interest rates or only at the rate then chosen?
Because if not there would seem to be something wrong with those rules. But if so were the banks applying them or is it that people could afford the mortgages even if interest rates went higher?
I'm trying to see whether there is a regulatory failure here or not.
Thanks.
I remortgaged 18 months ago.
There was no question as to how I would afford a rise in interest rates.
Mind you, I was fixing for five years because not being stupid I thought rates would go up quite fast.
I'm starting to think a wipeout is possible, or it will be if Farage comes on the pitch in the 90th minute. I'm hearing core Conservatives giving up now - who are solid base.
Even my Dad, who's so staunch he makes @HYUFD look like a floating voter, has said they don't deserve another term. And I agreed with him.
He's never come close to saying anything like that before in his life.
In the longer term it will be a good thing for your tribe. A properly functioning democracy needs a properly functioning centre right party. And since November 1990 yours hasn’t really been able to figure out what its core principles are. The same could be said for Labour of course but Blair did at least have some vision of radical centrism IMHO.
We dont have any properly function parties of any colour. They are all idiots who just want to continue the status quo that ended us in the shit we are in.
Fortunately it is just possible that deliverance is at hand. An economy based on property speculation, which is what we now have, cannot survive a prolonged period of very high interest rates - and there's no particular reason to suppose that the BoE will stop with a base rate of 6%, which is the current peak number that economic analysts seem to have plucked out of thin air. Inflation is proving very sticky and the BoE has no choice but to keep applying more and more downward pressure on the economy if it isn't to risk stagflation, followed by a collapse in international investor consequence in the UK and a Sterling crisis.
The existing socio-economic system is engineered to favour existing property owners, and to redistribute the stagnant pool of available wealth from the poor to the rich, principally via the inflation of asset prices and rents. We are long overdue a major downward correction in house prices, and such a collapse is to be welcomed. A huge spike in interest rates would make this very much more likely. Good. Bring it on.
And yet the lib dems are already talking about helping mortagees and I suspect soon to be followed by labour and cons
I genuinely don't think the idea will fly - hence the fact that Labour aren't already weaponizing it against the Government. Even political expediency must give way to mathematics: propping up homeowners by using funds from general taxation, including that paid by renters and the poor, would not only look dreadful but would itself be inflationary (and therefore self-defeating: trying to shield mortgage payers from high interest rates would risk begetting even higher interest rates.) Thus, neither the Tories nor Labour will back it, because whichever of them is in power would have to make such nonsense work and they know it won't.
The Liberal Democrats, being (a) a minor party with no prospect of leading a Government, and (b) on a mission to out Tory the Tories (e.g. through radical Nimbyism) amongst their wavering core voters in Southern England, are free to promulgate any bullshit that they like, because they know they're never going to be asked to implement it.
It would be a policy of SUPREME LUNACY
Shit.
Sunak will go for it, won't he?
No. I think the banks and building societies will be quietly told by Government that they are going to be responsible for absorbing most of those inevitable losses without chasing all the repossessions that would otherwise have been expected, if they want to pay out any bonuses in, oh, the next few years.
The next regulatory ICAAP stress testing round should be interesting.
Offering longer term fixed rates would make sense.
Although the historic long term rates probably aren't much different to what we have now.
But this evening I’m drinking a basic 11% Mosel Riesling from Lidl and it’s very nice.
On topic, as someone who’s like to see the Tories in the wilderness for at least two terms I really don’t want Mordaunt. She’s too likeable and sensible sounding. I want a version of IDS in there: in equal parts bonkers and ineffectual.
A nice Rousanne from the Rhône.
Lovely. My favourite whites are chewy fudgy Southern Rhône ones, Marsanne-Rousanne and Grenache blanc.
I'm really quite enamoured of English whites at the moment. The Bacchus grape works very well it seems. Otherwise Puligny Montrachet all the way!
The giveaway with most English wine is that they use grapes that are unheard of anywhere else in the winemaking world.
Your last couple of posts are like some wine commentator from the 1990s. Or a wine equivalent of that Waterstones man article in this week’s new statesman.
There’s a relatively big and ambitious planting going on this year in your neck of the woods. At gatcombe park. The issue with winemaking in the IoW is winery facilities but I assume they are building their own. The climate and soils are ideal.
When they can make wine out of proper grapes, is the time to take notice.
Yep, definitely a wine commentator from the 1990s. The golden era of Reichensteiner, Huxelrebe and Madeleine Angevine. The days before climate change.
I thought Ian was a Lib Dem but evidently not. That’s not a Lib Dem mindset.
I would have thought that some Lib Dems considered english winegrowing a bit gammony. Perhaps there was a time when it was.
No no no.
Rathfinny got planning permission for their winery construction thanks largely to interventions from Vince Cable.
Again, gammon and English wine is a 1970s-90s stereotype, when it was retired army majors making vinegar out of muller thurgau.
Look at the map of the presidential premier tour results. Strung out along the top calcareous slopes of burgundy and champagne are the deep yellows of Macron support. Winemaking is liberal centrism in a glass.
And in the cheap areas, where it's grape-growing as farming?
Black swan. Would the defeat of Putin give Sunak a boost?
Undoubtedly.
Would it overturn the Tories' unpopularity arsing from the CoL crisis, economic stagnation, NHS waiting lists, piss-poor public services, sleaze, partygate, Truss, and Johnson?
Ambling back from dinner tonight and who should pop up speaking in the square, but @SandyRentool speaking fluent Greek. Well behaved young audience, no hecklers or police presence. Just a lot of people listening to democracy in action. 200 yards away the Anarchists were meeting, with another young crowd, and cheap beer. Election is Sunday, ND likely to win.
An absolutely Mediterranean twilight sky in Primrose Hill tonight….
Relatedly? -
There has been an outbreak of sea swimming in the North Sea after work at my place. It is warmer (more correctly less Baltic) than anyone can ever remember. Almost the entire staff are hitting the waters to cool off physically and mentally.
It's worth remembering that, excellent as she was at wielding a ceremonial sword, Penny Mordaunt was all over the place during the last-but-one leadership contest. Essentially, the more she spoke, the more her support faltered.
The last thing the Tories need is another vacuous blonde with no achievements to their name but with a great capacity for self-promotion, telling lies and being photographed. Aren't Johnson and Truss enough for them?
Badenoch had an an opportunity with the Post Office to do something worthwhile and just but has fluffed it.
I tend to the @Heathener view - that either because of disgust and anger or weariness with the whole shambolic lot of them the Tories could do very badly indeed. Why should anyone vote for a party which does not know its arse from its elbow.
Your dislike of Mordaunt - and the reasons you give for it are stupid IMV.
"vacuous blonde" - wtf does hair colour have to do with it? You'd be the first person calling a man sexist for saying that. Vacuous - ditto.
'no achievements to their name' - the same is true for most politicians. Blair, for instance. Or Cameron.
'capacity for self-promotion' - ditto.
'telling lies' - ditto. And I think you're being a little unfair in that respect as well.
'being photographed' - a surprising number of politicians fail even that test.
"Blonde" is an accurate description not a criticism. Who are you to tell people they can't use adjectives.
"Vacuous" - that is an accurate description of how she came across in the debates when she stood for party leader last time: her answers to questions were feeble, she had no policy positions to put forward, all she said was giddy.
"Self-promotion" - that is what she is good at hence all the nice articles about her. But there is no substance that I can see - and in that regard she seems rather more similar to Truss and Johnson and indeed Sunak than the break with them that is needed.
"Telling lies" - yes she lied over Brexit and her support for Brexit is not a sign of good judgment and she lied about what she tried to do over womens rights issues. She also dissembled about her time in the Navy. Small lies maybe but it is the fact that her default seems to be to lie when challenged which is the problem. Again it is reminiscent of Johnson. Integrity is something the Tories badly need.
She supported Truss pretty vocally during her ill-fated government and has Andrea Leadsom as her main advisor, which does not strike me as exhibiting good judgment. What achievements has she had in office?
As far as I can see the main reason so many men here like her is because they have the hots for her.
She does have presence which Sunak does not have. She can do jokes. Her response on the Privileges Committee report was well judged. So was Mrs May's and no-one is suggesting her.
But really it is not enough. Nowhere near. The current batch of senior wannabe leader Tories are all cut from the same cloth. The next leader with a chance of winning will be from the next generation not this one. They will need to be because they will need that time to rethink what Conservatism means and can offer in the 2030's and 2040's. I see no sign that Mordaunt or anyone else being touted is even beginning to think about this.
Oh and I criticise both men and women for how they look and dress because I think that when people go out in public they should make an effort to be presentable at the very least and elegant at best. If you cannot be bothered to make that effort stay at home.
Oh come off it, you can't call someone a "vacuous blonde" and then not expect for it to be called out as sexist. It's an old misogynistic trope. "But adjectives" is a pretty feeble response.
Of course it is.
Its a lazy trope too. You wouldn't do it with skin colour, so why hair colour?
To just say "vacuous" would have sufficed, throwing in "blonde" as a stereotype is entirely redundant and a lame, misogynistic trope.
I'm very surprised by the muted responses internationally regards what is going on at the ZNPP. I hope messages are being conveyed privately. The response to the Kahkovka dam was also muted. Modi in the White House today, wouldn't be a bad moment for Biden to say something.
Labour's honeymoon starts and ends on election day.
A widespread belief amongst Conservatives in 1997, too ISTR.
I expect Starmer to be given a fair amount of time, but as with Truss he will be restricted by the money markets and have little room to change the dial quickly
Labour's honeymoon starts and ends on election day.
A widespread belief amongst Conservatives in 1997, too ISTR.
Yeah, but this decade is much more like the 1970s than the 1990s/2000s
As I've been saying for about 18 months the next election is 1974 not 1997.
Not convinced. This decade has the potential to be much more like 1997.
Economically we're at full employment, not mass unemployment like the 1970s/80s.
The housing bubble if it bursts will be painful while it happens but afterwards would be a fantastic correction to the economy that would then allow people opportunities currently denied to them and a feelgood factor accompanying it as a result afterwards, like the 90s.
Inflation is likely to fall away and real wage growth should return.
The next 18 months may be tough, especially from those who lose out from the bubble bursting, but the five years afterwards could be much more positive.
"A significant proportion of the population will see their savings wiped out because of the rise in interest rates and thus higher mortgage repayments."
A question for those who have recently taken out a mortgage.
Post the Financial Crisis the FCA introduced affordability tests. Do those tests check whether the mortgage is affordable at higher interest rates or only at the rate then chosen?
Because if not there would seem to be something wrong with those rules. But if so were the banks applying them or is it that people could afford the mortgages even if interest rates went higher?
I'm trying to see whether there is a regulatory failure here or not.
Thanks.
I remortgaged 18 months ago.
There was no question as to how I would afford a rise in interest rates.
Mind you, I was fixing for five years because not being stupid I thought rates would go up quite fast.
It sounds like a bit of a regulatory failure to me but will look into it further.
Not sure if useful, but my monthly payment has gone up about 30%, on a 2 year fix (circumstances will change soon, all going well).
I managed to get it that low by extending the term to the absolute max, will make overpayments to make up for it but this gives me more flexibility. Again, they seemed supremely relaxed by all this.
Comments
Point stands though.
okay fine, your actions are abhorrent
https://twitter.com/hansmollman/status/1671817612920074244/photo/1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQbFTxpnGZY
(play it at x2 normal speed for maximum "eeeeee!"
The same will probably be the case for a 2025 leadership election.
Arguably, the most relevant news on the "next Conservative PM" front is Rupert Harrison's selection in Bicester for the Conservatives. Because I suspect we need to look for someone who can say that 2019-24 was nothing to do with them.
What followed was sown then.
I suspect the next Tory PM isn't an MP yet and won't fight this election. Just like Cameron in 1997.
Accepting that there are probably better deals if you are arsed enough to shuffle your money round as appropriate, but, proportionally, how many people are actually doing that?
As I've long been interested in finding out what actually happened, I'm still disappointed. All we've seen in recent weeks is reheating of the same old stuff - and then one place citing another, and someone else citing them, and all of this supposed to be new or greater evidence?
The "three lab workers got ill with 'flu or a bad cold and we all know that MUST mean covid," thing has been around for literally years now. Even sometimes with names attached. But all three were back to work quickly, no-one was seriously ill, and, rather importantly, when tested for seropositivity, no-one at WIV had had covid before.
And these people were still there. And still publishing papers and in apparently good odour there, which is curious if they did indeed cause millions of deaths in China and a huge impact to China's economy, and cause it to fall under suspicion worldwide, given that China is, you know, a massively authoritarian regime and can be quite harsh.
The fact that it was the worst flu season in China in a decade in late 2019 (and yes, the country was being hit by an influenza virus, not a coronavirus) should maybe be taken into account when considering that a few people working in a decent-sized institute in one of China's biggest cities did get flu that winter.
But, as I said, this is nothing new, and no useful evidence has been put forwards.
You can't get from RaTG13 to SARS-CoV2 by passing it through lab animals. The entire furin cleavage site thing was an irrelevance, because it's not that unusual in coronaviruses as it turns out (SARS-MERS has one, for example).
And the US Intelligence Community had all this information (obviously, as it's them whose had to declassify it) when they concluded:
I know Leon is very excitable on this and for some reason sees it as some sort of identification with his own intellect, but if those who've had the expertise and this information for so long are 4-2-2 on zoonosis-unsure-lab leak (and the two on lab leak are split as to which lab, one being WCDC and the other WIV), then I'm not seeing a conclusion so far.
I've said all along I can see either being plausible. The lab leak has become less plausible (its main selling point is that it's in the same city - but then again, of China's ten largest cities, seven have a biological research lab with coronaviruses, and you need a large city for the big superspreading, anyway) - the furin cleavage site wasn't a big deal, none of the viruses cited were close enough, the structure of SARS-CoV-2 isn't pointing to artificiality. Zoonosis has become more plausible (more things tracked down around the wet market, two separate lineages jumped across, which points to zoonosis rather than leakage, unless it's a continued and repeated leakage).
But both are still on the table and useful evidence can swing it back. Not seen yet, though.
A friend of mine is a huge wine importer, highly successful owner of several wine based companies. It was him that introduced me to the
quality of English Fizz. And he’s a kiwi, with no patriotic tambourine to bash
Tsk
His expertise in this field is unsurpassed, after all.
The levels of debt would be a bigger concern and the increasing interest rates mean we have to devote most of our GDP to paying down the debt interest.
I presume you'll be hoping for some rapid base rate cuts later in the year and then (somehow) the money will be found for a pre-election tax cut bribe.
The huge debt and deficit will be ignored or brushed under a particularly large and dusty carpet.
Personally would be tempted to drive
> from Seattle to Port Angeles WA, then ferry to Victoria BC
> from Vic via Swartz Bay > Tsawwassen ferry to Vancouver
> from Vancouver to Banff via Trans-Canada & Coquihalla Highways to Banff NP
> from Banff via Alberta to CN Waterton Lakes-US Glacier NP
(> alternative from Van, take highway across southern BC just north of border to Crowsnest Pass, an amazing road crossing several mountain ranges interspersed with big lakes and valleys
> from Waterton/Glacier west to Cour d'Alene ID then Spokane WA
> from Spokane to Grand Coulee Dam and the not-to-be-missed Dry Falls
> from Dry Falls to Wenatchee to Leavenworth to Stevens Pass and back to Seattle.
Plenty of alternatives along this general route.
For example, you can go from Seattle directly to Port Angeles via Bainbridge Island ferry; OR you can head down to Olympia, then west and north on US 101 to Pacific Coast then via Forks to PA from the west.
Wowzers. More than 70% of people who voted Leave want a closer relationship with the EU. 15% want straight up Rejoin. ~AA
https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1671934799555051545
You don't have to be an emotional sponge, but some level of understanding is not too much to ask.
The Liberal Democrats, being (a) a minor party with no prospect of leading a Government, and (b) on a mission to out Tory the Tories (e.g. through radical Nimbyism) amongst their wavering core voters in Southern England, are free to promulgate any bullshit that they like, because they know they're never going to be asked to implement it.
Post the Financial Crisis the FCA introduced affordability tests. Do those tests check whether the mortgage is affordable at higher interest rates or only at the rate then chosen?
Because if not there would seem to be something wrong with those rules. But if so were the banks applying them or is it that people could afford the mortgages even if interest rates went higher?
I'm trying to see whether there is a regulatory failure here or not.
Thanks.
My boy Dave (pbuh) did fight the 1997 general election.
He was the Tory candidate in Stafford, and in his words
'I fought Stafford and Stafford fought back.'
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1671963493954625558
On the subject of the next Tory leader, the field of potential candidates may be significantly thinned after the next GE.
There was no question as to how I would afford a rise in interest rates.
Mind you, I was fixing for five years because not being stupid I thought rates would go up quite fast.
The last move of the wet marketeers will be to pivot from “it definitely came from the market, the lab leak is a mad conspiracy/highly unlikely” to “oh well we will probably never know, let’s move on quickly ok thanks”
Indeed that is one move in the New York Times today “we will never know”
“U.S. Intelligence Agencies May Never Find Covid’s Origins, Officials Say”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/21/us/politics/covid-pandemic-lab-leak-intelligence.html
Tho on the same day they published this which says hell yeah, of course it came from the lab
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/21/opinion/covid-lab-leak-origins.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
And it did
The 7 stages of Western "concern"
1 Concerned - invasion
2 Deeply concerned - Mariupol theatre
3 Gravely concerned - Bucha
4 Severely concerned - No ATACMS/F-16s
5 Gravely & deeply concerned - Kakhovka Dam
6 Demand answers - Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant
7 How did this happen?
https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1671940799427141632?cxt=HHwWgICztY_T9rMuAAAA
I've got a bit in the bank but it was scary how easy it was.
I thought Ian was a Lib Dem but evidently not. That’s not a Lib Dem mindset.
In terms of real targets in South Hants, Labour have Southampton and the Lib Dems gave Winchester/Eastleigh to play with. And in terms of hate figures, Suella is next door in Fareham & Waterlooville.
Penny's Portsmouth seat might be quite quiet by comparison.
They didn't have much empathy though and were also evil
I think she's an immeasurably wonderful human being
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxgZuE14he8
GLSDB?
Sunak will go for it, won't he?
If you can, go to the Everglades and try night-kayaking
They give you head torches and the sight of two yellow alligator eyes floating menacingly towards you is unforgettable
Throw out anyone on less than about 15,000 and then weigh the merits of the probable survivors. Barclay, Badenoch, Tugendhat and Braverman, for example, all look likely to weather anything short of a Canada '93 apocalypse. Mordaunt, however, could easily find herself in a close race.
Is there?
(1) Under MCOB 11.6.5R , in taking account of likely future interest rate increases for the purposes of its assessment of whether the customer will be able to pay the sums due, a mortgage lender must consider the likely future interest rates over a minimum period of five years from the expected start of the term of the regulated mortgage contract (or variation), unless the interest rate under the regulated mortgage contract is fixed for a period of five years or more from that time, or for the duration of the regulated mortgage contract (or variation), if less than five years.
(2) In coming to a view as to likely future interest rates, a mortgage lender must have regard to:
(a) market expectations; and
(b) any prevailing Financial Policy Committee recommendation on appropriate interest-rate stress tests;
and must be able to justify the basis it uses by reference to (a) and (b).
(3) For the purposes of this rule, even if the basis used by the mortgage lender in (2) indicates that interest rates are likely to fall, or to rise by less than 1%, during the first five years of the regulated mortgage contract (or variation), a mortgage lender must assume that interest rates will rise by a minimum of 1% over that period.
https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/MCOB/11/6.html#DES127
(Not my choice of policy, but it is possible).
"Vacuous" - that is an accurate description of how she came across in the debates when she stood for party leader last time: her answers to questions were feeble, she had no policy positions to put forward, all she said was giddy.
"Self-promotion" - that is what she is good at hence all the nice articles about her. But there is no substance that I can see - and in that regard she seems rather more similar to Truss and Johnson and indeed Sunak than the break with them that is needed.
"Telling lies" - yes she lied over Brexit and her support for Brexit is not a sign of good judgment and she lied about what she tried to do over womens rights issues. She also dissembled about her time in the Navy. Small lies maybe but it is the fact that her default seems to be to lie when challenged which is the problem. Again it is reminiscent of Johnson. Integrity is something the Tories badly need.
She supported Truss pretty vocally during her ill-fated government and has Andrea Leadsom as her main advisor, which does not strike me as exhibiting good judgment. What achievements has she had in office?
As far as I can see the main reason so many men here like her is because they have the hots for her.
She does have presence which Sunak does not have. She can do jokes. Her response on the Privileges Committee report was well judged. So was Mrs May's and no-one is suggesting her.
But really it is not enough. Nowhere near. The current batch of senior wannabe leader Tories are all cut from the same cloth. The next leader with a chance of winning will be from the next generation not this one. They will need to be because they will need that time to rethink what Conservatism means and can offer in the 2030's and 2040's. I see no sign that Mordaunt or anyone else being touted is even beginning to think about this.
Oh and I criticise both men and women for how they look and dress because I think that when people go out in public they should make an effort to be presentable at the very least and elegant at best. If you cannot be bothered to make that effort stay at home.
Rathfinny got planning permission for their winery construction thanks largely to interventions from Vince Cable.
Again, gammon and English wine is a 1970s-90s stereotype, when it was retired army majors making vinegar out of muller thurgau.
Look at the map of the presidential premier tour results. Strung out along the top calcareous slopes of burgundy and
champagne are the deep yellows of Macron support. Winemaking is liberal centrism in a glass.
And I should add: any constituency with at least one productive vineyard is a blue wall Lib Dem target.
Relatedly? -
That's not to say I relish a Labour government, I don't. But hopefully some solid years of Opposition will bring us a Tory Opposition worthy of being in Government.
And if we have to have a Labour Government, then could be worse than Starmer.
The next regulatory ICAAP stress testing round should be interesting.
Le Pen Senior owned in Champagne:
https://www.decanter.com/wine-news/le-pen-buys-into-champagne-101244/
They'd be able to negotiate baubles from a Labour minority in exchange for permitting it a quieter life, but they're not, under such a scenario, going to wield enough power either to force major policy concessions (least of all on electoral reform, to give the obvious example,) or to convince ministers to take actions which they believe to be fundamentally wrong-headed.
But its gone to complete shyte now - Rishi has no idea and the team behind him are also useless.
CON at real risk of going sub 200.
- AMOC (Atlantic Méridional Overturning circulation) is in positive phase
- North Atlantic Oscillation has been negative (though not so much now) with clear skies and strong insolation over the North Atlantic
- The UN has banned sulphur in Marine fuels meaning ship emissions of cooling sulphites have collapsed (so called terminal warming)
Very interesting situation in the North Atlantic currently.
It sounds like a bit of a regulatory failure to me but will look into it further.
Although the historic long term rates probably aren't much different to what we have now.
Would it overturn the Tories' unpopularity arsing from the CoL crisis, economic stagnation, NHS waiting lists, piss-poor public services, sleaze, partygate, Truss, and Johnson?
Undoubtedly not.
As I've been saying for about 18 months the next election is 1974 not 1997.
It is warmer (more correctly less
Baltic) than anyone can ever remember.
Almost the entire staff are hitting the waters to cool off physically and mentally.
Its a lazy trope too. You wouldn't do it with skin colour, so why hair colour?
To just say "vacuous" would have sufficed, throwing in "blonde" as a stereotype is entirely redundant and a lame, misogynistic trope.
Elections are always decided at home, not abroad.
All-Leave audience for Question Time Brexit special
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-65991849
Economically we're at full employment, not mass unemployment like the 1970s/80s.
The housing bubble if it bursts will be painful while it happens but afterwards would be a fantastic correction to the economy that would then allow people opportunities currently denied to them and a feelgood factor accompanying it as a result afterwards, like the 90s.
Inflation is likely to fall away and real wage growth should return.
The next 18 months may be tough, especially from those who lose out from the bubble bursting, but the five years afterwards could be much more positive.
I managed to get it that low by extending the term to the absolute max, will make overpayments to make up for it but this gives me more flexibility. Again, they seemed supremely relaxed by all this.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/22/this-is-ruining-peoples-lives-homeowners-hit-by-uk-mortgage-crisis-speak-out
Three of the people are from Surrey and the other from North London with a £950k mortgage.
One of the Surrey lot is:
Steven, 52, and his wife have an interest-only mortgage. They bought their house 20 years ago, initially on an interest rate of 4.8%.