Categories
Mordaunt second favourite to succeed Sunak as CON leader – politicalbetting.com
Mordaunt second favourite to succeed Sunak as CON leader – politicalbetting.com
Clearly the exit of BoJo has had an impact on the next Tory leader betting and the Smarkets market above shows where things stand now.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
As Cyclefree has noted Labour's Darren Jones has more of an impact than Badenoch.
The Tories need to go into opposition simply to rebuild. For younger figures to hone their skills fighting a Labour givernment
Even my Dad, who's so staunch he makes @HYUFD look like a floating voter, has said they don't deserve another term. And I agreed with him.
He's never come close to saying anything like that before in his life.
Also, I'm surprised Johnson hasn't appeared on that chart anytime in the last 8 months.
Mordaunt is a solid performer but too woke and anti Boris for most Tory members. Cleverly is too lightweight and likely lacks MP support. Badenoch like last year will also likely fail to make the final 3 with Tory MPs, albeit could win if she went to the members vote. Wallace won't stand as he didn't last time either.
So implosion, taking milliseconds, followed by an explosion.
On the upside, certain death, faster than you could start to realise something was happening, let alone feel pain.
"It was never cheap vs good champagne marques. Only recently they've started to discount it a bit to bring it down to around £30 a bottle."
++++++
I did a blind test the other day. A really good Nyetimber versus a similarly priced and supposedly good champagne
The Nyetimber won, hands down: more complex, interesting, juicy, delicious. The best English fizz is now absolutely world class
post GE 2024 - William Hague Lite = Kemi Badenoch?
Nyetimber has in my view a way to go. It’s seriously good stuff and their top sites have only just come on stream. They have a large planting round the corner from my vineyard and it’s (even) better terroir than mine. Certainly for Chardonnay. Their blanc de blancs was in the MW tasting exam this year.
Thing with ESW is it’s been discovered by the rich British but not yet by the world. The downside of course is the top bottles are already £100+ so I suppose don’t quite fit the brief.
Anonymous and nominatively non-determinitive.
Since then she has done pretty well. And, more importantly, the Tories have very little choice. She's not posh and she speaks well in the Commons. She's probably their best bet
So it is perhaps beginning to be recognised, outside the UK, as high quality wine, with a snob value
On topic, as someone who’s like to see the Tories in the wilderness for at least two terms I really don’t want Mordaunt. She’s too likeable and sensible sounding. I want a version of IDS in there: in equal parts bonkers and ineffectual.
Is any Tory seat safe after today's news?
Mordaunt is untainted by Boris or the Brexit strife, in public perception. And she certainly isn't a privately schooled billionaire
Two more Spanish polls today both giving a likely majority simple for PP, requiring Vox acquiescence to rule. With 2 weeks before the 3 week campaign starts the polling so far is very stable.
No more early morning sparring with her?
That’s sad.
I'd really like to give a link to a tweet or something, but as it came from an actual book I'll just have to link to Waterstones and remind you that libraries exist.
https://www.waterstones.com/book/the-prime-ministers-we-never-had/steve-richards/9781838952426
Also he has a new book coming out later this year
https://www.waterstones.com/book/turning-points/steve-richards-media-limited/steve-richards/9781035015351
That is certainly how it was being sold in these restaurants: as something rare and precious and expensive that you could boast about to your friends, and sound worldly
Bearing in mind as well it was a very small object compared to the things they would usually monitor.
I am in pre-production stage (2 year old vines) and facing the dilemma of market positioning. Unlike many vineyards I don’t have the space (or time or interest) in becoming essentially a hospitality venue that happens to make wine, which is how many of them break even. And I’m not big enough nor are yields high enough to go cheap. So I have to be premium. But there are 3 routes to premium: natural wine / trendy hipster labels, POSH in the style of the parasol-touting houses like Nyetimber, Simpsons and Gusbourne, or the as-yet not very well developed boutique market: grower sparklings. I’m going for the latter but it’s not easy without a big marketing budget.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65923956
An evil woman, or a heroine?
Effectively you have 20 cubic meters imploding into 1 cubic meter and a small amount of gas escaping.
That's not a lot of noise.
If history really rhymes, the sequence will be Barclay (loses), Badenoch (blows up), Mordaunt (loses, but respectably), someone unknown (the next Conservative PM).
Ten years doesn't take long if you say it quickly.
It's just kicked in. They are really dead. Damn.
We keep saying that they are dying off, but there are A LOT of pensioners and for around the next ten-fifteen years they will remain the dominant force in British politics. When it switches it will switch fast as they begin to be outnumbered by younger votes in sufficient proportion to outweigh differential turnout by age, but until then it will be pensionerism all the way...
on the plus side you can get Nyetimber on offer at 20 a bottle from Morrisons - rebadged as best English sparkling.
Using odd grapes might sound like a bad idea, but it ain't when it works. In England it seems Bacchus works really rather well.
edit: aiui, we also don't have a great deal of experience of sound at such great depths. Most submarines have crush deaths of 200-1,000 metres. This vessel may have been much deeper, and sound may behave differently.
There’s a relatively big and ambitious planting going on this year in your neck of the woods. At gatcombe park. The issue with winemaking in the IoW is winery facilities but I assume they are building their own. The climate and soils are ideal.
I’ve planted Meunier, Pinot noir, and Melon de Bourgogne which is hardly an obscure variety given it dominates the Loire atlantique.
Instead, that in 1997 the Conservatives rejected their best (in terms of electability) option, Ken Clark, in favor of the relatively untried but right-wing William Hague.
Who despite enthusiasm of Tory base did NOT surprise on the upside as Conservative "Leader".
KB appears (to me anyway) to be cut from same cloth, but NOT (even) as impressive as WH.
So whilst she is just an individual, she may have considerable political power.
appreciate the purity. Bacchus will disappear
on the coming decades as the climate gets
too hot and Sauvignon blanc takes over. SB
already does well in parts of the South. Mènetou-salon style, ie the more austere Loire version but less full than Sancerre or PF.
It's described as dry, but I think that's because it has a has a quite sharp and citrussy initial hit, but the flavour afterwards is all off-dry Riesling. It balances rather nicely
I bet it would go well with oysters and other seafood, but I'm just guzzling it on its own. I might have a bit left when I cook my fishfingers, chips and peas later
Definitely decent value at a tenner a bottle
I have priorities
https://www.thewinesociety.com/product/the-societys-austrian-riesling-2022
Prospective 11th hour leaders are thin on the ground now. Bojo is no longer an option. Penny is the likeliest, having got further in both competitions than anybody else save Boris and Sunak.
The second window is about how people should act given the freedom women have. This is not about law but social and personal norms. Loads of people think that abortion should be much less common than it is; while I suspect few think there should be more than there are. Many are as uncomfortable with lawful mass abortion as they would be with the entire adult population lawfully smoking 60 a day.
Not that this is any real use to the Conservatives in the long run, because people are no longer moving rightwards as they age. Being the party of the landed interest - minted pensioner owner-occupiers, their heirs and rentiers - only wins elections so long as there are enough of those people around to keep voting for you. Those who have neither significant assets nor any realistic prospect of accruing them have nothing to conserve and, consequently, no use for conservatism.
Sunak is fine for the role of losing as well as possible. Times up for the Tories. Run out of ideas and the pandemic and Ukraine removed any possible financial wriggle room.
Time for change. But not just another new Tory PM.
BTW I am convinced Rishi is having speaking lessons to proletarianise his voice.
When the discussion turns to reviling the elderly, the missing element is most each and everyone of them is greatly loved by their children, grandchildren and great grandchildren, who certainly would not recognise the opprobrium some want to direct to them and yes, even some of us who voted remain
The good book says 'honour your father and your mother that your days may be long' and wise words
Is it the K that makes the difference?
Whereas Hague could outrank and outflank Boris, commands respect and can connect outside the Tory party. I think the troops would turn out for him and the country would prefer him to Sunak. So worth the change.