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If BoJo got re-elected would the 90 day suspension apply? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,123
edited June 2023 in General
imageIf BoJo got re-elected would the 90 day suspension apply? – politicalbetting.com

I am sure that there is a very simple answer to this but in the very unlikely event of Johnson seeking to become an MP again I wonder whether the 90 day suspension he received would still be valid? As we all know he managed to avoid the action last time by resigning straight away.

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Comments

  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,629
    Boris isn't coming back.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,638
    Would the suspension matter? Being reelected would be a justified sinner type situation.

    He could just go and write DM columns and go on hols for three months. The neighbouring MPs would do the work.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,629
    Pubman new CPI forecast Dec 2023 = 6%.

    Rishi = FAIL
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,198
    That's an interesting question, and as not-a-lawyer, I'd *guess* it may depend on whether the suspension is on *him* or his post as MP.

    However, I'd argue that the suspension is known about by the voters. If they vote him in, in spite of the suspension, I'd argue it should not be served.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,693
    I think the answer would be no. It would be the same if an MP got recalled and then won the by election.
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,386
    edited June 2023
    If enough idiots vote for him and he gets another MP gig, then surely the people have spoken/democracy in action, blah, blah, blah.
    But he ain't getting back in. He's done. Dusted. Labour are going to form the next government and Johnson will be irrelevant.

    I've asked the following question many times, but never get an answer. Who do PB Tories actually want to lead the party?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,279
    The answer is no.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,835
    A better question, from a betting perspective anyway, might be how long after being elected would BoZo find himself in contempt of Parliament again?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,501

    That's an interesting question, and as not-a-lawyer, I'd *guess* it may depend on whether the suspension is on *him* or his post as MP.

    However, I'd argue that the suspension is known about by the voters. If they vote him in, in spite of the suspension, I'd argue it should not be served.

    I think that's right, and imposing it, even if legal, would actually be counter-productive. If I voted for someone, they were elected, and his opponents then found a way to keep him from representing me for 3 months, I'd be properly pissed off and would certainly vote for him again.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,835

    I've asked the following question many times, but never get an answer. Who do PB Tories actually want to lead the party?

    Who will still be standing after the next election?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,835

    If I voted for someone, they were elected, and his opponents then found a way to keep him from representing me for 3 months, I'd be properly pissed off and would certainly vote for him again.

    The idea that BoZo actually represents his constituents is amusing.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,744

    If enough idiots vote for him and he gets another MP gig, then surely the people have spoken/democracy in action, blah, blah, blah.
    But he ain't getting back in. He's done. Dusted. Labour are going to form the next government and Johnson will be irrelevant.

    I've asked the following question many times, but never get an answer. Who do PB Tories actually want to lead the party?

    Good morning

    For now Sunak, and post the election Penny Mordaunt possibly but would need to see how many conservative mps are available

    And for the record Sunak should have voted for the privileges committee rather than abstain under the pretext he was meeting Sweden's PM, and in PR terms it was the wrong decision
  • Scott_xP said:

    I've asked the following question many times, but never get an answer. Who do PB Tories actually want to lead the party?

    Who will still be standing after the next election?
    Hopefully not many!
  • If enough idiots vote for him and he gets another MP gig, then surely the people have spoken/democracy in action, blah, blah, blah.
    But he ain't getting back in. He's done. Dusted. Labour are going to form the next government and Johnson will be irrelevant.

    I've asked the following question many times, but never get an answer. Who do PB Tories actually want to lead the party?

    Good morning

    For now Sunak, and post the election Penny Mordaunt possibly but would need to see how many conservative mps are available

    And for the record Sunak should have voted for the privileges committee rather than abstain under the pretext he was meeting Sweden's PM, and in PR terms it was the wrong decision
    Why Mordaunt?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,638
    edited June 2023

    If enough idiots vote for him and he gets another MP gig, then surely the people have spoken/democracy in action, blah, blah, blah.
    But he ain't getting back in. He's done. Dusted. Labour are going to form the next government and Johnson will be irrelevant.

    I've asked the following question many times, but never get an answer. Who do PB Tories actually want to lead the party?

    It does rather depend on which PBTories are Real Tories, or a bunch of assorted Libertarians, former Labour voters, disenchanted Cameronians, etc., who therefore don't count.

    So far as I can see the only self-certified authentic Tory in the PB village is firmly pro-Johnson. Edit: not because Mr J is any good at being PM; that is not even part of the equation in question; but simply because he will supposedly win elections, which is all that counts to keep the Tories in their Divine Right of Rule over the UK.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,700

    That's an interesting question, and as not-a-lawyer, I'd *guess* it may depend on whether the suspension is on *him* or his post as MP.

    However, I'd argue that the suspension is known about by the voters. If they vote him in, in spite of the suspension, I'd argue it should not be served.

    I think that's right, and imposing it, even if legal, would actually be counter-productive. If I voted for someone, they were elected, and his opponents then found a way to keep him from representing me for 3 months, I'd be properly pissed off and would certainly vote for him again.
    He remains banned from the Parliamentary Estate, however, for life !

    How does voting by proxy work, since for some reason it was impossible for the Prime Minister?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,744
    England and Australia fined 40% of their match fees and penalised 2 ICC World Test Championship points for slow over rates in the last test
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,168

    If enough idiots vote for him and he gets another MP gig, then surely the people have spoken/democracy in action, blah, blah, blah.
    But he ain't getting back in. He's done. Dusted. Labour are going to form the next government and Johnson will be irrelevant.

    I've asked the following question many times, but never get an answer. Who do PB Tories actually want to lead the party?

    Good morning

    For now Sunak, and post the election Penny Mordaunt possibly but would need to see how many conservative mps are available

    And for the record Sunak should have voted for the privileges committee rather than abstain under the pretext he was meeting Sweden's PM, and in PR terms it was the wrong decision
    The Swedish PM would have understood as well as anyone that Rishi might have to excuse himself for half an hour to pop across the road to vote. Sunak could have left Lee Anderson on entertainment duty.

    Meeting the Swedish PM is a very poor excuse for not voting.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,744

    If enough idiots vote for him and he gets another MP gig, then surely the people have spoken/democracy in action, blah, blah, blah.
    But he ain't getting back in. He's done. Dusted. Labour are going to form the next government and Johnson will be irrelevant.

    I've asked the following question many times, but never get an answer. Who do PB Tories actually want to lead the party?

    Good morning

    For now Sunak, and post the election Penny Mordaunt possibly but would need to see how many conservative mps are available

    And for the record Sunak should have voted for the privileges committee rather than abstain under the pretext he was meeting Sweden's PM, and in PR terms it was the wrong decision
    Why Mordaunt?
    She has shown leadership and is very good at the dispatch box

    I doubt she is the membership choice but as I said the next leader will only become obvious post GE 24
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,744
    edited June 2023

    If enough idiots vote for him and he gets another MP gig, then surely the people have spoken/democracy in action, blah, blah, blah.
    But he ain't getting back in. He's done. Dusted. Labour are going to form the next government and Johnson will be irrelevant.

    I've asked the following question many times, but never get an answer. Who do PB Tories actually want to lead the party?

    Good morning

    For now Sunak, and post the election Penny Mordaunt possibly but would need to see how many conservative mps are available

    And for the record Sunak should have voted for the privileges committee rather than abstain under the pretext he was meeting Sweden's PM, and in PR terms it was the wrong decision
    The Swedish PM would have understood as well as anyone that Rishi might have to excuse himself for half an hour to pop across the road to vote. Sunak could have left Lee Anderson on entertainment duty.

    Meeting the Swedish PM is a very poor excuse for not voting.
    I totally agree and he was foolish in ducking it

    Even Starmer made it after dashing back from Scotland
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,693

    If enough idiots vote for him and he gets another MP gig, then surely the people have spoken/democracy in action, blah, blah, blah.
    But he ain't getting back in. He's done. Dusted. Labour are going to form the next government and Johnson will be irrelevant.

    I've asked the following question many times, but never get an answer. Who do PB Tories actually want to lead the party?

    Good morning

    For now Sunak, and post the election Penny Mordaunt possibly but would need to see how many conservative mps are available

    And for the record Sunak should have voted for the privileges committee rather than abstain under the pretext he was meeting Sweden's PM, and in PR terms it was the wrong decision
    Why Mordaunt?
    She has shown leadership and is very good at the dispatch box

    I doubt she is the membership choice but as I said the next leader will only become obvious post GE 24
    I agree that she would be a good LOTO. She speaks well and effectively in the House. Her administrative skills, however, have proven more suspect.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,835

    Why Mordaunt?

    She's not scared of BoZo
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,638

    If enough idiots vote for him and he gets another MP gig, then surely the people have spoken/democracy in action, blah, blah, blah.
    But he ain't getting back in. He's done. Dusted. Labour are going to form the next government and Johnson will be irrelevant.

    I've asked the following question many times, but never get an answer. Who do PB Tories actually want to lead the party?

    Good morning

    For now Sunak, and post the election Penny Mordaunt possibly but would need to see how many conservative mps are available

    And for the record Sunak should have voted for the privileges committee rather than abstain under the pretext he was meeting Sweden's PM, and in PR terms it was the wrong decision
    Why Mordaunt?
    She has shown leadership and is very good at the dispatch box

    I doubt she is the membership choice but as I said the next leader will only become obvious post GE 24
    She did fib a bit to members about LGBT issues, didn't she? And in reality is basically unsound on that front as far as the woke warriors are cocnerned. Bit disqualifying.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    If enough idiots vote for him and he gets another MP gig, then surely the people have spoken/democracy in action, blah, blah, blah.
    But he ain't getting back in. He's done. Dusted. Labour are going to form the next government and Johnson will be irrelevant.

    I've asked the following question many times, but never get an answer. Who do PB Tories actually want to lead the party?

    The culture warriors are all #kocksout4kemi and the most of the rest are #precum4penny

    Also a few shy Johnson diehards on here who are biding their time.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,744
    Carnyx said:

    If enough idiots vote for him and he gets another MP gig, then surely the people have spoken/democracy in action, blah, blah, blah.
    But he ain't getting back in. He's done. Dusted. Labour are going to form the next government and Johnson will be irrelevant.

    I've asked the following question many times, but never get an answer. Who do PB Tories actually want to lead the party?

    Good morning

    For now Sunak, and post the election Penny Mordaunt possibly but would need to see how many conservative mps are available

    And for the record Sunak should have voted for the privileges committee rather than abstain under the pretext he was meeting Sweden's PM, and in PR terms it was the wrong decision
    Why Mordaunt?
    She has shown leadership and is very good at the dispatch box

    I doubt she is the membership choice but as I said the next leader will only become obvious post GE 24
    She did fib a bit to members about LGBT issues, didn't she? And in reality is basically unsound on that front as far as the woke warriors are cocnerned. Bit disqualifying.
    She is in the frame but who knows who will be in the Commons post the next GE
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,063

    If enough idiots vote for him and he gets another MP gig, then surely the people have spoken/democracy in action, blah, blah, blah.
    But he ain't getting back in. He's done. Dusted. Labour are going to form the next government and Johnson will be irrelevant.

    I've asked the following question many times, but never get an answer. Who do PB Tories actually want to lead the party?

    Good morning

    For now Sunak, and post the election Penny Mordaunt possibly but would need to see how many conservative mps are available

    And for the record Sunak should have voted for the privileges committee rather than abstain under the pretext he was meeting Sweden's PM, and in PR terms it was the wrong decision
    Why Mordaunt?
    Best fit to the specification.

    A big enough beast to be plausible.

    Distant enough from the heart of government to be a step away from the clustershambles.

    Brexitty, so tolerable to the party, but not mad with it.

    Enough panache to carry the role off, because the panache of the leader might be all the Conservatives have for a while.

    Not sure she's up to being PM, but that probably doesn't matter. It wasn't meant to matter for Starmer. (Though in his case, I reckon he'll be a perfectly adequate PM, just poor at competitive elections.) Her real job will be to create a space where a future Conservative PM might emerge.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,638

    Carnyx said:

    If enough idiots vote for him and he gets another MP gig, then surely the people have spoken/democracy in action, blah, blah, blah.
    But he ain't getting back in. He's done. Dusted. Labour are going to form the next government and Johnson will be irrelevant.

    I've asked the following question many times, but never get an answer. Who do PB Tories actually want to lead the party?

    Good morning

    For now Sunak, and post the election Penny Mordaunt possibly but would need to see how many conservative mps are available

    And for the record Sunak should have voted for the privileges committee rather than abstain under the pretext he was meeting Sweden's PM, and in PR terms it was the wrong decision
    Why Mordaunt?
    She has shown leadership and is very good at the dispatch box

    I doubt she is the membership choice but as I said the next leader will only become obvious post GE 24
    She did fib a bit to members about LGBT issues, didn't she? And in reality is basically unsound on that front as far as the woke warriors are cocnerned. Bit disqualifying.
    She is in the frame but who knows who will be in the Commons post the next GE
    Also if it remains the members or the MPs who choose the leader of the party, too. But that would mean a rule change.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,359
    An interesting question. But there can't be a simple answer unless there is a parliamentary precedent - which is unlikely.

    The HoC is its own court and cannot be challenged. So if Boris got reelected he would be MP once sworn in, until he wasn't. Until swearing in there isn't an HoC to act. Once the HoC sits it is beyond doubt the question will be raised as a point of order. The Speaker would have to suggest and direct the next steps.

    Personally I think the answer would be No, but if, say, a Labour dominated HoC in 2024 wanted to say Yes, they could procedurally manage it (using the same committee as now), and it could not be challenged.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,638

    IanB2 said:

    Inflation 8.7%. Core inflation is up to 7.1%, above expectations

    Beginning to think these figures are meaningless. Everyone's inflation rate is different. It depends what you buy... or don't buy.
    And above whose expectations.....
    Unless you're arguing that official stats are useless and shouldn't be published, they're the best estimate available of the overall position. If you're talking about individual perception, there's a pretty broad consensus - regardless of political persuasion - that prices are going up rapidly. You can argue that it's not the Tories' fault, but arguing that it's all illusory is Bourbon-scale insouciance.
    FPT

    On which, have you seen this? 87.5% inflation for Bourbon biscuits, appropriately enough.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12202445/Taking-biscuit-Price-treats-soars-supermarket.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,838
    I hesitate to take the side of the former PM but I don't think it should were he to be re-elected.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,168
    ...
    algarkirk said:

    An interesting question. But there can't be a simple answer unless there is a parliamentary precedent - which is unlikely.

    The HoC is its own court and cannot be challenged. So if Boris got reelected he would be MP once sworn in, until he wasn't. Until swearing in there isn't an HoC to act. Once the HoC sits it is beyond doubt the question will be raised as a point of order. The Speaker would have to suggest and direct the next steps.

    Personally I think the answer would be No, but if, say, a Labour dominated HoC in 2024 wanted to say Yes, they could procedurally manage it (using the same committee as now), and it could not be challenged.

    Why would Labour want to challenge Johnson's election to the HoC? He will be a thorn in the side of the Conservative leadership. A Labour Government would view him as a welcome distraction.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,551
    Boris craves attention. Whilst it’s necessary to call out his BS, beyond that anything that puts the spotlight on him is playing into his agenda. The Tories need a strategy to make Boris boring, passé and irrelevant.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,359
    edited June 2023

    ...

    algarkirk said:

    An interesting question. But there can't be a simple answer unless there is a parliamentary precedent - which is unlikely.

    The HoC is its own court and cannot be challenged. So if Boris got reelected he would be MP once sworn in, until he wasn't. Until swearing in there isn't an HoC to act. Once the HoC sits it is beyond doubt the question will be raised as a point of order. The Speaker would have to suggest and direct the next steps.

    Personally I think the answer would be No, but if, say, a Labour dominated HoC in 2024 wanted to say Yes, they could procedurally manage it (using the same committee as now), and it could not be challenged.

    Why would Labour want to challenge Johnson's election to the HoC? He will be a thorn in the side of the Conservative leadership. A Labour Government would view him as a welcome distraction.
    Yes that's possible but others views may succeed. What is implausible is no-one will ask the question in a formal point of order way.

    Study of the Bradlaugh case might produce some sort of precedent, but it needs thought.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,279
    edited June 2023
    Jonathan said:

    Boris craves attention. Whilst it’s necessary to call out his BS, beyond that anything that puts the spotlight on him is playing into his agenda. The Tories need a strategy to make Boris boring, passé and irrelevant.

    My suggestion is to make him ambassador to Ukraine.

    Make him live in central Kyiv.

    After all Churchill lived in London during the blitz
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,072

    If enough idiots vote for him and he gets another MP gig, then surely the people have spoken/democracy in action, blah, blah, blah.
    But he ain't getting back in. He's done. Dusted. Labour are going to form the next government and Johnson will be irrelevant.

    I've asked the following question many times, but never get an answer. Who do PB Tories actually want to lead the party?

    Good morning

    For now Sunak, and post the election Penny Mordaunt possibly but would need to see how many conservative mps are available

    And for the record Sunak should have voted for the privileges committee rather than abstain under the pretext he was meeting Sweden's PM, and in PR terms it was the wrong decision
    Why Mordaunt?
    Best fit to the specification.

    A big enough beast to be plausible.

    Distant enough from the heart of government to be a step away from the clustershambles.

    Brexitty, so tolerable to the party, but not mad with it.

    Enough panache to carry the role off, because the panache of the leader might be all the Conservatives have for a while.

    Not sure she's up to being PM, but that probably doesn't matter. It wasn't meant to matter for Starmer. (Though in his case, I reckon he'll be a perfectly adequate PM, just poor at competitive elections.) Her real job will be to create a space where a future Conservative PM might emerge.
    A decent opposition leader can do a lot more than that. If they can tap into public opinion then they can force a change in government policy, especially if they're also pushing at a divide within the government. What they need to be effective in such a role is a very clear story to tell, it needs to be simple and consistent.

    In terms of opposition leaders who did this well, you might point to Hague and his opposition to Britain's membership of the Euro. Had he been in favour (and able to carry most of his party with him) then it would have left Labour opponents of Euro membership much more isolated.

    Compare and contrast with an opposition leader who wasn't effective in this way - Corbyn. He was entirely unable to provide any clear policy on Brexit, and so became completely irrelevant to that major political debate, which came to be fought out in the media entirely as an internal Conservative party psychodrama.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,660
    Absent Johnson the HoC is a charisma vacuum. If you looked up "boring" in the old yellow pages you got "see Civil Engineers". The present HoC could outdo a convention of Civil Engineers
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,778

    Jonathan said:

    Boris craves attention. Whilst it’s necessary to call out his BS, beyond that anything that puts the spotlight on him is playing into his agenda. The Tories need a strategy to make Boris boring, passé and irrelevant.

    My suggestion is to make him ambassador to Ukraine.

    Make him live in central Kyiv.

    After all Churchill lived in London during the blitz
    Governorship of Southern Thule no longer an option?
  • MattW said:

    That's an interesting question, and as not-a-lawyer, I'd *guess* it may depend on whether the suspension is on *him* or his post as MP.

    However, I'd argue that the suspension is known about by the voters. If they vote him in, in spite of the suspension, I'd argue it should not be served.

    I think that's right, and imposing it, even if legal, would actually be counter-productive. If I voted for someone, they were elected, and his opponents then found a way to keep him from representing me for 3 months, I'd be properly pissed off and would certainly vote for him again.
    He remains banned from the Parliamentary Estate, however, for life !

    How does voting by proxy work, since for some reason it was impossible for the Prime Minister?
    He's not been banned from the Parliamentary Estate. He's not being given the pass normally given to ex-members allowing general access, but is perfectly entitled to be there as a guest of an MP or member of the public visiting.

    On topic, the Privileges Committee report (and Commons vote on it) simply says they WOULD HAVE recommended suspension for 90 days had Johnson still been an MP (and, in voting for it, MPs agreed that). But the Commons has not, in fact, voted for a suspended sentence of some kind that kicks in if he is re-elected at some later date.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,638
    algarkirk said:

    ...

    algarkirk said:

    An interesting question. But there can't be a simple answer unless there is a parliamentary precedent - which is unlikely.

    The HoC is its own court and cannot be challenged. So if Boris got reelected he would be MP once sworn in, until he wasn't. Until swearing in there isn't an HoC to act. Once the HoC sits it is beyond doubt the question will be raised as a point of order. The Speaker would have to suggest and direct the next steps.

    Personally I think the answer would be No, but if, say, a Labour dominated HoC in 2024 wanted to say Yes, they could procedurally manage it (using the same committee as now), and it could not be challenged.

    Why would Labour want to challenge Johnson's election to the HoC? He will be a thorn in the side of the Conservative leadership. A Labour Government would view him as a welcome distraction.
    Yes that's possible but others views may succeed. What is implausible is no-one will ask the question in a formal point of order way.

    I'm sure a LD, SNP or PC MP would be only too happy to do so, to put Labour on the spot, e.g. as "supporting Boris" with a dash of curry- and beer-spiced back history for SKS as well (unfairly or otherwise).
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,682

    Pubman new CPI forecast Dec 2023 = 6%.

    Rishi = FAIL

    I've got it at 5.6%. That is more than half what it was in Nov 2022 so weak Rishi's pledge looks like a fail to me too.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,945
    Inflation is embedded. Grim.
  • algarkirk said:

    ...

    algarkirk said:

    An interesting question. But there can't be a simple answer unless there is a parliamentary precedent - which is unlikely.

    The HoC is its own court and cannot be challenged. So if Boris got reelected he would be MP once sworn in, until he wasn't. Until swearing in there isn't an HoC to act. Once the HoC sits it is beyond doubt the question will be raised as a point of order. The Speaker would have to suggest and direct the next steps.

    Personally I think the answer would be No, but if, say, a Labour dominated HoC in 2024 wanted to say Yes, they could procedurally manage it (using the same committee as now), and it could not be challenged.

    Why would Labour want to challenge Johnson's election to the HoC? He will be a thorn in the side of the Conservative leadership. A Labour Government would view him as a welcome distraction.
    Yes that's possible but others views may succeed. What is implausible is no-one will ask the question in a formal point of order way.

    Study of the Bradlaugh case might produce some sort of precedent, but it needs thought.

    I think the Wilkes case might be a better precedent than Bradlaugh. An individual who was expelled by the House of Commons was sent back there by his constituents - in the end, they had to accept him.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Something big happening in Indian aviation. Indigo and Air India have just put in orders for a total of a thousand jets at the Paris Airshow
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,474
    It's a daft question to ask as such talk fuels the delusional martyr complex both for him and his supporters.

    Anyone daft enough to re-elect him deserves all they get, and it's not the business of Parliament to interfere with that.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,744
    FF43 said:

    Something big happening in Indian aviation. Indigo and Air India have just put in orders for a total of a thousand jets at the Paris Airshow

    It has indeed and enormous boost for North Wales with all 500 aircraft wings built here in Wales

    Airbus secures biggest plane order in the history of commercial aviation

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/airbus-secures-biggest-plane-order-27153783#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,281
    FF43 said:

    Something big happening in Indian aviation. Indigo and Air India have just put in orders for a total of a thousand jets at the Paris Airshow

    Any comment from Just Stop Oil?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,568

    Pubman new CPI forecast Dec 2023 = 6%.

    Rishi = FAIL

    I've got it at 5.6%. That is more than half what it was in Nov 2022 so weak Rishi's pledge looks like a fail to me too.
    Indeed, and that was supposed to be his gimme.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-64166469
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,340

    algarkirk said:

    ...

    algarkirk said:

    An interesting question. But there can't be a simple answer unless there is a parliamentary precedent - which is unlikely.

    The HoC is its own court and cannot be challenged. So if Boris got reelected he would be MP once sworn in, until he wasn't. Until swearing in there isn't an HoC to act. Once the HoC sits it is beyond doubt the question will be raised as a point of order. The Speaker would have to suggest and direct the next steps.

    Personally I think the answer would be No, but if, say, a Labour dominated HoC in 2024 wanted to say Yes, they could procedurally manage it (using the same committee as now), and it could not be challenged.

    Why would Labour want to challenge Johnson's election to the HoC? He will be a thorn in the side of the Conservative leadership. A Labour Government would view him as a welcome distraction.
    Yes that's possible but others views may succeed. What is implausible is no-one will ask the question in a formal point of order way.

    Study of the Bradlaugh case might produce some sort of precedent, but it needs thought.

    I think the Wilkes case might be a better precedent than Bradlaugh. An individual who was expelled by the House of Commons was sent back there by his constituents - in the end, they had to accept him.

    algarkirk said:

    ...

    algarkirk said:

    An interesting question. But there can't be a simple answer unless there is a parliamentary precedent - which is unlikely.

    The HoC is its own court and cannot be challenged. So if Boris got reelected he would be MP once sworn in, until he wasn't. Until swearing in there isn't an HoC to act. Once the HoC sits it is beyond doubt the question will be raised as a point of order. The Speaker would have to suggest and direct the next steps.

    Personally I think the answer would be No, but if, say, a Labour dominated HoC in 2024 wanted to say Yes, they could procedurally manage it (using the same committee as now), and it could not be challenged.

    Why would Labour want to challenge Johnson's election to the HoC? He will be a thorn in the side of the Conservative leadership. A Labour Government would view him as a welcome distraction.
    Yes that's possible but others views may succeed. What is implausible is no-one will ask the question in a formal point of order way.

    Study of the Bradlaugh case might produce some sort of precedent, but it needs thought.

    I think the Wilkes case might be a better precedent than Bradlaugh. An individual who was expelled by the House of Commons was sent back there by his constituents - in the end, they had to accept him.
    IIRC those two cases were on matters of principle. Not the result of no principles!
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,629

    Pubman new CPI forecast Dec 2023 = 6%.

    Rishi = FAIL

    I've got it at 5.6%. That is more than half what it was in Nov 2022 so weak Rishi's pledge looks like a fail to me too.
    Indeed, and that was supposed to be his gimme.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-64166469
    Looks like Rishi is heading for 0 out of 5

    As Meat Loaf didn't say '0 out of 5 ain't good'.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,501

    If enough idiots vote for him and he gets another MP gig, then surely the people have spoken/democracy in action, blah, blah, blah.
    But he ain't getting back in. He's done. Dusted. Labour are going to form the next government and Johnson will be irrelevant.

    I've asked the following question many times, but never get an answer. Who do PB Tories actually want to lead the party?

    Not my business, of course, but (pace ydoethur) Gove would be good - not bad at combative politics but also a genuine old-fashioned politician keen to change things for the good of the country. Some of his changes have been very controversial, but at least he enriches public debate. What do Sunak, Hunt, Mordaunt, etc. actually stand for? When did they last say anything new?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,570

    Jonathan said:

    Boris craves attention. Whilst it’s necessary to call out his BS, beyond that anything that puts the spotlight on him is playing into his agenda. The Tories need a strategy to make Boris boring, passé and irrelevant.

    My suggestion is to make him ambassador to Ukraine.

    Make him live in central Kyiv.

    After all Churchill lived in London during the blitz
    We could tell him we're opening a new embassy in Mariupol and that the plan is to parachute him in under a Union Jack to publicise his arrival.

    He is probably sufficiently lazy not to bother to checking the implications until the jump door is open.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    We're reliving the 1970's.

    The police certainly seem stuck there - though a judge criticising the "shocking" way the police treated a female police officer who blew the whistle on a colleague who has been convicted of 6 rapes of a colleague and 2 rapes of a 16 year old girl - is a welcome change: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/metropolitan-police-ignored-officers-complaint-about-rapist-colleague-bz7265nzq.

    Then there is the NCA which has been found by a police watchdog to tolerate predatory sexual behaviour by its staff - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sex-predators-tolerated-at-national-crime-agency-z3c25bq7j - problems known to the leadership with nothing done. Apparently being there is like going into "an old fashioned CID office". The usual pointless apology has been offered.

    Not to be outdone, the Scouts are currently carrying out an investigation into claims they silenced women who made allegations of sexual abuse. Millions have been paid out to victims but it is said that their safeguarding policies are still inadequate.



  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,223
    FPT
    DavidL said:

    Very poor inflation figures with a 30 year high for core inflation, food inflation still extremely high, if past its peak and the headline rate not falling.

    The BoE have made such a mess of this. They assumed that the UK would be in a prolonged recession by now with inflation being squeezed out by a collapse in demand. This is just not happening.

    I was in Inverness on Sunday night and the first 4 restaurants I tried did not have a table for 1. I got one in the 5th because someone had failed to appear. The bars were so full they were spilling out onto the streets. All this on a Sunday night. I appreciate it is a tourist location in mid June but a good friend of mine, who owns a fair sized business with several hotels in and around the area, tells me that they are having a record season.

    Not sure if a tendency to holiday at home has built up during Covid but demand is much, much stronger than the Bank expected and this is keeping prices on an upward trend. The Bank really should increase interest rates by a half point tomorrow but my guess is that they will wimp out again and stick to a quarter.

    @DavidL, we have had some disagreements but I've always found you quite sensible, whether or not this feeling is reciprocated.

    I am a fan of the dictum 'Anyone who can't explain something successfully in layman's terms either doesn’t understand it or doesn’t want you to.'. This inflation is not typical; it's caused by radical increases in energy costs, which are reflected in every price rise - food increases due to the power used in production, hospitality due to the increase in heating and lighting, and food etc. etc. Can you explain in layman's terms how the usual approach to attacking inflation can possibly work here? Do you think the global gas price is going to be adjusted down because they realise that British consumers aren't putting their heating on as much? Perhaps you can explain.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,168

    Pubman new CPI forecast Dec 2023 = 6%.

    Rishi = FAIL

    I've got it at 5.6%. That is more than half what it was in Nov 2022 so weak Rishi's pledge looks like a fail to me too.
    Indeed, and that was supposed to be his gimme.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-64166469
    Looks like Rishi is heading for 0 out of 5

    As Meat Loaf didn't say '0 out of 5 ain't good'.
    These pledges can always be made to fit into the frame with a Stanley knife and Sellotape.

    Remember the COVID pledges for testing kit delivery. If you recall by the end of the delivery window, so long as the envelope had a stamp on it and was resting in Boris' out-tray it was considered to have been "delivered".
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,223
    mwadams said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris craves attention. Whilst it’s necessary to call out his BS, beyond that anything that puts the spotlight on him is playing into his agenda. The Tories need a strategy to make Boris boring, passé and irrelevant.

    My suggestion is to make him ambassador to Ukraine.

    Make him live in central Kyiv.

    After all Churchill lived in London during the blitz
    We could tell him we're opening a new embassy in Mariupol and that the plan is to parachute him in under a Union Jack to publicise his arrival.

    He is probably sufficiently lazy not to bother to checking the implications until the jump door is open.
    Given Sunak's track record I wouldn't trust anything to happen when he pulls the ripcord.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,177

    FF43 said:

    Something big happening in Indian aviation. Indigo and Air India have just put in orders for a total of a thousand jets at the Paris Airshow

    It has indeed and enormous boost for North Wales with all 500 aircraft wings built here in Wales

    Airbus secures biggest plane order in the history of commercial aviation

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/airbus-secures-biggest-plane-order-27153783#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
    I think you'll find that's 1,000 wings, BigG!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,835
    Jonathan said:

    Boris craves attention. Whilst it’s necessary to call out his BS, beyond that anything that puts the spotlight on him is playing into his agenda. The Tories need a strategy to make Boris boring, passé and irrelevant.

    ...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,140
    Cyclefree said:

    We're reliving the 1970's.

    The police certainly seem stuck there - though a judge criticising the "shocking" way the police treated a female police officer who blew the whistle on a colleague who has been convicted of 6 rapes of a colleague and 2 rapes of a 16 year old girl - is a welcome change: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/metropolitan-police-ignored-officers-complaint-about-rapist-colleague-bz7265nzq.

    Then there is the NCA which has been found by a police watchdog to tolerate predatory sexual behaviour by its staff - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sex-predators-tolerated-at-national-crime-agency-z3c25bq7j - problems known to the leadership with nothing done. Apparently being there is like going into "an old fashioned CID office". The usual pointless apology has been offered.

    Not to be outdone, the Scouts are currently carrying out an investigation into claims they silenced women who made allegations of sexual abuse. Millions have been paid out to victims but it is said that their safeguarding policies are still inadequate.

    I don't know what's more depressing - the info in the post or the fact I'm not in any way surprised by it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,288
    FF43 said:

    Something big happening in Indian aviation. Indigo and Air India have just put in orders for a total of a thousand jets at the Paris Airshow

    A realisation that the new Chinese and Russian commercial planes aren’t going to cut the mustard?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,412

    If enough idiots vote for him and he gets another MP gig, then surely the people have spoken/democracy in action, blah, blah, blah.
    But he ain't getting back in. He's done. Dusted. Labour are going to form the next government and Johnson will be irrelevant.

    I've asked the following question many times, but never get an answer. Who do PB Tories actually want to lead the party?

    Not my business, of course, but (pace ydoethur) Gove would be good - not bad at combative politics but also a genuine old-fashioned politician keen to change things for the good of the country. Some of his changes have been very controversial, but at least he enriches public debate. What do Sunak, Hunt, Mordaunt, etc. actually stand for? When did they last say anything new?
    Gove is a politician who makes me think that each department should have two ministers. The minister of problems and the minister of solutions as often someone can work out what is wrong but doesn’t know the best alternate plan.

    So, for a random example, the MoD has a minister of problems, say an ex army chap who says “our kit is crap, too expensive and slow to deliver and we have too few troops.” And the minister of solutions who used to run a big business says “this is how we change supply lines and recruitment.”
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,288

    FF43 said:

    Something big happening in Indian aviation. Indigo and Air India have just put in orders for a total of a thousand jets at the Paris Airshow

    Any comment from Just Stop Oil?
    They’ll probably start picketing the Airbus factory in Broughton. How dare the British engineers be allowed to make such horrible things, much better to see thousands of skilled workers made redundant instead.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855

    FF43 said:

    Something big happening in Indian aviation. Indigo and Air India have just put in orders for a total of a thousand jets at the Paris Airshow

    It has indeed and enormous boost for North Wales with all 500 aircraft wings built here in Wales

    Airbus secures biggest plane order in the history of commercial aviation

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/airbus-secures-biggest-plane-order-27153783#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
    I think you'll find that's 1,000 wings, BigG!
    2,000...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,140
    Miklosvar said:

    FF43 said:

    Something big happening in Indian aviation. Indigo and Air India have just put in orders for a total of a thousand jets at the Paris Airshow

    It has indeed and enormous boost for North Wales with all 500 aircraft wings built here in Wales

    Airbus secures biggest plane order in the history of commercial aviation

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/airbus-secures-biggest-plane-order-27153783#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
    I think you'll find that's 1,000 wings, BigG!
    2,000...
    Everyone's getting into quite the flap about it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,741
    edited June 2023
    boulay said:

    If enough idiots vote for him and he gets another MP gig, then surely the people have spoken/democracy in action, blah, blah, blah.
    But he ain't getting back in. He's done. Dusted. Labour are going to form the next government and Johnson will be irrelevant.

    I've asked the following question many times, but never get an answer. Who do PB Tories actually want to lead the party?

    Not my business, of course, but (pace ydoethur) Gove would be good - not bad at combative politics but also a genuine old-fashioned politician keen to change things for the good of the country. Some of his changes have been very controversial, but at least he enriches public debate. What do Sunak, Hunt, Mordaunt, etc. actually stand for? When did they last say anything new?
    Gove is a politician who makes me think that each department should have two ministers. The minister of problems and the minister of solutions as often someone can work out what is wrong but doesn’t know the best alternate plan.

    So, for a random example, the MoD has a minister of problems, say an ex army chap who says “our kit is crap, too expensive and slow to deliver and we have too few troops.” And the minister of solutions who used to run a big business says “this is how we change supply lines and recruitment.”
    Wasn't Philip Green of Top Shop mooted as the "Solutions Minister" for the NHS? Not sure that turned out particularly well but yes, in theory the idea is a good one.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,140
    edited June 2023
    boulay said:

    If enough idiots vote for him and he gets another MP gig, then surely the people have spoken/democracy in action, blah, blah, blah.
    But he ain't getting back in. He's done. Dusted. Labour are going to form the next government and Johnson will be irrelevant.

    I've asked the following question many times, but never get an answer. Who do PB Tories actually want to lead the party?

    Not my business, of course, but (pace ydoethur) Gove would be good - not bad at combative politics but also a genuine old-fashioned politician keen to change things for the good of the country. Some of his changes have been very controversial, but at least he enriches public debate. What do Sunak, Hunt, Mordaunt, etc. actually stand for? When did they last say anything new?
    Gove is a politician who makes me think that each department should have two ministers. The minister of problems and the minister of solutions as often someone can work out what is wrong but doesn’t know the best alternate plan.

    So, for a random example, the MoD has a minister of problems, say an ex army chap who says “our kit is crap, too expensive and slow to deliver and we have too few troops.” And the minister of solutions who used to run a big business says “this is how we change supply lines and recruitment.”
    Wouldn't it be better if we had actual experts in the field considering the problems *and* solutions?

    For example, in education it is seven years since a teacher was leading OFSTED* and 11 years since anyone with an educational background was permanent secretary at the DfE (and that was a one-off). Instead, we have a lot of not very bright civil servants with rubbish degrees and boundless arrogance coming up with solutions that won't work to problems they don't really understand.

    If the minimum age of entry to the Civil Service was 40 and a requirement was made that you must have at least five years' experience in a related field I think you would see some improvement.

    *It is worth noting that one of the major problems with OFSTED is that despite its name it has a very wide remit far beyond education which leads to muddle and inexpert inspections - for me, a low point was when a school I was in was inspected for educational quality by somebody who was an expert in paediatric hospitals. He was nice enough and clearly very knowledgeable in his own field, but he clearly had no clue what he was looking at. That in itself means any head of it will have limits to understanding the role, although Spielman has managed to be spectacularly ignorant of all of them.
  • WestieWestie Posts: 426
    Why is everyone at Westminster, including the Privileges Committee (point 39 of its report), playing along with the idea that an MP can resign at a moment of his own choosing and with immediate effect? It used to be common knowledge that they couldn't, and that they had to apply for the Chiltern Hundreds or Manor of Northstead. That's what both John Profumo and John Stonehouse did, for example.

    Has Boris Johnson destroyed parliamentary precedent in one surprise move, doubtless earning admiration from those such as Dominic Cummings and Stephen Bannon?

    Setting the electorate against the Commons ("We're sending him to you"..."We don't want him"..."What are you, a private members' club?") would make for nice theatre but isn't going to happen.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,700

    MattW said:

    That's an interesting question, and as not-a-lawyer, I'd *guess* it may depend on whether the suspension is on *him* or his post as MP.

    However, I'd argue that the suspension is known about by the voters. If they vote him in, in spite of the suspension, I'd argue it should not be served.

    I think that's right, and imposing it, even if legal, would actually be counter-productive. If I voted for someone, they were elected, and his opponents then found a way to keep him from representing me for 3 months, I'd be properly pissed off and would certainly vote for him again.
    He remains banned from the Parliamentary Estate, however, for life !

    How does voting by proxy work, since for some reason it was impossible for the Prime Minister?
    He's not been banned from the Parliamentary Estate. He's not being given the pass normally given to ex-members allowing general access, but is perfectly entitled to be there as a guest of an MP or member of the public visiting.

    On topic, the Privileges Committee report (and Commons vote on it) simply says they WOULD HAVE recommended suspension for 90 days had Johnson still been an MP (and, in voting for it, MPs agreed that). But the Commons has not, in fact, voted for a suspended sentence of some kind that kicks in if he is re-elected at some later date.
    Thank-you. That's interesting.

    Personally I'd have cancelled his post-Prime Ministerial benefits - on the basis that he has already proved he will not respect the rules by ignoring the Ministerial Code in accepting jobs without being authorised - and his pension as well, on the same basis as policemen being able losing theirs when they bring the service into disrepute.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    boulay said:

    say an ex army chap

    Ex-forces are the last people you need at the MoD. Too institutionalised, too reactionary, too wedded to their old mob. eg Baldy Ben whose pathological need to be liked and refusal to take tough decisions has let the army's procurement problems get worse instead of improving them.
  • WestieWestie Posts: 426
    edited June 2023
    boulay said:

    If enough idiots vote for him and he gets another MP gig, then surely the people have spoken/democracy in action, blah, blah, blah.
    But he ain't getting back in. He's done. Dusted. Labour are going to form the next government and Johnson will be irrelevant.

    I've asked the following question many times, but never get an answer. Who do PB Tories actually want to lead the party?

    Not my business, of course, but (pace ydoethur) Gove would be good - not bad at combative politics but also a genuine old-fashioned politician keen to change things for the good of the country. Some of his changes have been very controversial, but at least he enriches public debate. What do Sunak, Hunt, Mordaunt, etc. actually stand for? When did they last say anything new?
    Gove is a politician who makes me think that each department should have two ministers. The minister of problems and the minister of solutions as often someone can work out what is wrong but doesn’t know the best alternate plan.

    So, for a random example, the MoD has a minister of problems, say an ex army chap who says “our kit is crap, too expensive and slow to deliver and we have too few troops.” And the minister of solutions who used to run a big business says “this is how we change supply lines and recruitment.”
    Why not "runs a big business" rather than "used to"? Fresh current knowledge and all that. Might as well go full-on corporate state, and if said chap wants to put his company logo outside the MoD main building, why not if it's for the good of the people? And not just any old big business, but a military supplier. Then he'd know what's what.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,140
    Westie said:

    boulay said:

    If enough idiots vote for him and he gets another MP gig, then surely the people have spoken/democracy in action, blah, blah, blah.
    But he ain't getting back in. He's done. Dusted. Labour are going to form the next government and Johnson will be irrelevant.

    I've asked the following question many times, but never get an answer. Who do PB Tories actually want to lead the party?

    Not my business, of course, but (pace ydoethur) Gove would be good - not bad at combative politics but also a genuine old-fashioned politician keen to change things for the good of the country. Some of his changes have been very controversial, but at least he enriches public debate. What do Sunak, Hunt, Mordaunt, etc. actually stand for? When did they last say anything new?
    Gove is a politician who makes me think that each department should have two ministers. The minister of problems and the minister of solutions as often someone can work out what is wrong but doesn’t know the best alternate plan.

    So, for a random example, the MoD has a minister of problems, say an ex army chap who says “our kit is crap, too expensive and slow to deliver and we have too few troops.” And the minister of solutions who used to run a big business says “this is how we change supply lines and recruitment.”
    Why not "runs a big business" rather than "used to"? Fresh current knowledge and all that. Might as well go full-on corporate state, and if said chap wants to put his company logo outside the MoD main building, why not if it's for the good of the people?
    Aha. Great Britain Ltd rides again.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,741
    edited June 2023
    Dura_Ace said:

    boulay said:

    say an ex army chap

    Ex-forces are the last people you need at the MoD. Too institutionalised, too reactionary, too wedded to their old mob. eg Baldy Ben whose pathological need to be liked and refusal to take tough decisions has let the army's procurement problems get worse instead of improving them.
    Your kidding.

    Ben
    IDS
    Adam Holloway
    David Tredinnick
    David Davis
    Mark Francois

    I can't think of a more qualified group of people to be in charge and making decisions.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,140
    Dura_Ace said:

    boulay said:

    say an ex army chap

    Ex-forces are the last people you need at the MoD. Too institutionalised, too reactionary, too wedded to their old mob. eg Baldy Ben whose pathological need to be liked and refusal to take tough decisions has let the army's procurement problems get worse instead of improving them.
    That's presumably why he suggested having an expert in supply chains looking at the solutions.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Bring back Truss. At least she was trying to grow the economy
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,062

    If enough idiots vote for him and he gets another MP gig, then surely the people have spoken/democracy in action, blah, blah, blah.
    But he ain't getting back in. He's done. Dusted. Labour are going to form the next government and Johnson will be irrelevant.

    I've asked the following question many times, but never get an answer. Who do PB Tories actually want to lead the party?

    Not my business, of course, but (pace ydoethur) Gove would be good - not bad at combative politics but also a genuine old-fashioned politician keen to change things for the good of the country. Some of his changes have been very controversial, but at least he enriches public debate. What do Sunak, Hunt, Mordaunt, etc. actually stand for? When did they last say anything new?
    I think Gove has been around too long, and there are too many hostages to fortune in choosing him. The problem with others like Alex Chalk, for example, is that he is too public school smooth, and is unlikely to hold his seat anyway. Tobias Ellwood has also annoyed too many with his rebellious antics, but there is a portion of the party establishment that would go for him.

    The puff piece for Penny Mordaunt in the Times today suggests that if she holds her own seat, she is in with a good shout. However, that is a pretty big "if".

    The big deal for the post defeat Tories will be "Character", hence the interesting positioning of Mordaunt and Ellwood.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    boulay said:

    say an ex army chap

    Ex-forces are the last people you need at the MoD. Too institutionalised, too reactionary, too wedded to their old mob. eg Baldy Ben whose pathological need to be liked and refusal to take tough decisions has let the army's procurement problems get worse instead of improving them.
    Your kidding.

    Ben
    IDS
    Adam Holloway
    David Tredinnick
    David Davis
    Mark Francois

    I can't think of a more qualified group of people to be in charge and making decisions.
    Great Trolling, what a herd of donkeys.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,741
    edited June 2023
    The next 12 months are going to be a horribly bumpy ride for some people. The mortgage/house price bomb is going to go off and it isn’t going to be pretty.

    I do actually expect prices to recover in the medium term but that’s little comfort to anyone who is remortgaging or selling in that period.

    We’ll also likely have a GE campaign or be ramping up for one. So make of that what you will. I am starting to feel a bit more confident of a Labour majority.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,474
    .
    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    boulay said:

    say an ex army chap

    Ex-forces are the last people you need at the MoD. Too institutionalised, too reactionary, too wedded to their old mob. eg Baldy Ben whose pathological need to be liked and refusal to take tough decisions has let the army's procurement problems get worse instead of improving them.
    That's presumably why he suggested having an expert in supply chains looking at the solutions.
    When one of the problems is the minister in charge...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,474
    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    boulay said:

    say an ex army chap

    Ex-forces are the last people you need at the MoD. Too institutionalised, too reactionary, too wedded to their old mob. eg Baldy Ben whose pathological need to be liked and refusal to take tough decisions has let the army's procurement problems get worse instead of improving them.
    Your kidding.

    Ben
    IDS
    Adam Holloway
    David Tredinnick
    David Davis
    Mark Francois

    I can't think of a more qualified group of people to be in charge and making decisions.
    At least one of those is actually mad.
  • MattW said:

    MattW said:

    That's an interesting question, and as not-a-lawyer, I'd *guess* it may depend on whether the suspension is on *him* or his post as MP.

    However, I'd argue that the suspension is known about by the voters. If they vote him in, in spite of the suspension, I'd argue it should not be served.

    I think that's right, and imposing it, even if legal, would actually be counter-productive. If I voted for someone, they were elected, and his opponents then found a way to keep him from representing me for 3 months, I'd be properly pissed off and would certainly vote for him again.
    He remains banned from the Parliamentary Estate, however, for life !

    How does voting by proxy work, since for some reason it was impossible for the Prime Minister?
    He's not been banned from the Parliamentary Estate. He's not being given the pass normally given to ex-members allowing general access, but is perfectly entitled to be there as a guest of an MP or member of the public visiting.

    On topic, the Privileges Committee report (and Commons vote on it) simply says they WOULD HAVE recommended suspension for 90 days had Johnson still been an MP (and, in voting for it, MPs agreed that). But the Commons has not, in fact, voted for a suspended sentence of some kind that kicks in if he is re-elected at some later date.
    Thank-you. That's interesting.

    Personally I'd have cancelled his post-Prime Ministerial benefits - on the basis that he has already proved he will not respect the rules by ignoring the Ministerial Code in accepting jobs without being authorised - and his pension as well, on the same basis as policemen being able losing theirs when they bring the service into disrepute.
    Police pensions can be forfeited in very limited circumstances under the regulations applying to them, and the MPs' scheme would similarly be likely to have scheme rules with very limited forfeiture provisions. This would not, in any event, be a matter that can be overridden by the Privileges Committee - they are accrued rights.

    Simply on a point of principle, I'd also say that there is a world of difference between Boris Johnson and Wayne Couzens. I am very far from being a Johnson fan but there's a need to have some sense of proportion.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,453

    If enough idiots vote for him and he gets another MP gig, then surely the people have spoken/democracy in action, blah, blah, blah.
    But he ain't getting back in. He's done. Dusted. Labour are going to form the next government and Johnson will be irrelevant.

    I've asked the following question many times, but never get an answer. Who do PB Tories actually want to lead the party?

    Good morning

    For now Sunak, and post the election Penny Mordaunt possibly but would need to see how many conservative mps are available

    And for the record Sunak should have voted for the privileges committee rather than abstain under the pretext he was meeting Sweden's PM, and in PR terms it was the wrong decision
    Why Mordaunt?
    Best fit to the specification.

    A big enough beast to be plausible.

    Distant enough from the heart of government to be a step away from the clustershambles.

    Brexitty, so tolerable to the party, but not mad with it.

    Enough panache to carry the role off, because the panache of the leader might be all the Conservatives have for a while.

    Not sure she's up to being PM, but that probably doesn't matter. It wasn't meant to matter for Starmer. (Though in his case, I reckon he'll be a perfectly adequate PM, just poor at competitive elections.) Her real job will be to create a space where a future Conservative PM might emerge.
    I would add being socially liberal too, as need to get some appeal to post Boomer generations.

    Most of all, she is a confident and capable speaker in Parliament, with a bit of humour that will contrast well with the wooden Starmer.

    I don't think a great brain or potential PM, but a real threat as LOTO.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,680
    The covid monetary incontinence started in March 2020. Core inflation didn’t materially exceed target until Aug 2021, which at 17mths is roughly in line with expected lags between monetary action and inflation.

    Funny things will have happened to inflation this cycle too due to the particular behavioural effects of covid, with pent up demand and labour shortages but balanced by the omicron bed wetting which dampened behaviours.

    In any case, add 17 months to when the BoE first started to really try and address inflation. I don’t personally start the clock until Aug 2022, the first 50bps raise which took rates to only 1.75%.

    So prediction time, core inflation will peak +- a couple of months around Jan 2024 and be back in range sometime Q2. The panic raises we are now seeing will only serve to tank the economy by mid 2024 and makes this unnecessarily unpleasant. The BoE have won the election for Starmer.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,755

    Bring back Truss. At least she was trying to grow the economy

    In the sense that the guy who got buried alive was at least trying to dig the well?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,308
    It's not just Sunak's inflation target that is in jeopardy. Stop the Boats! isn't looking too good either, with 1,660 "irregular migrants" crossing the Channel just last week. The previous reduction in numbers that Sunak was trumpeting seems to have reversed following a change in, er, wind direction.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-days
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,779

    The next 12 months are going to be a horribly bumpy ride for some people. The mortgage/house price bomb is going to go off and it isn’t going to be pretty.

    I do actually expect prices to recover in the medium term but that’s little comfort to anyone who is remortgaging or selling in that period.

    We’ll also likely have a GE campaign or be ramping up for one. So make of that what you will. I am starting to feel a bit more confident of a Labour majority.

    I come a fixed rate next February. Hoping things may have calmed down a little by then but prepared for a chunky rise on monthly payments. Sure I will cope, but loads will not.

    Let's also note the other consequence of this. Let's assume my mortgage payment goes up by £300 - or a lot more. That is cash I am no longer spending in the wider economy. Products I am not buying. Money needs to circulate to support jobs, so a big cut in disposable income for enough people, and even more businesses will have to make people redundant or fail completely.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,744

    FF43 said:

    Something big happening in Indian aviation. Indigo and Air India have just put in orders for a total of a thousand jets at the Paris Airshow

    It has indeed and enormous boost for North Wales with all 500 aircraft wings built here in Wales

    Airbus secures biggest plane order in the history of commercial aviation

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/airbus-secures-biggest-plane-order-27153783#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
    I think you'll find that's 1,000 wings, BigG!
    It is indeed
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855

    FF43 said:

    Something big happening in Indian aviation. Indigo and Air India have just put in orders for a total of a thousand jets at the Paris Airshow

    It has indeed and enormous boost for North Wales with all 500 aircraft wings built here in Wales

    Airbus secures biggest plane order in the history of commercial aviation

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/airbus-secures-biggest-plane-order-27153783#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
    I think you'll find that's 1,000 wings, BigG!
    It is indeed
    No it is not. 1,000 jets, 2 wings per jet, do the math.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,741
    moonshine said:

    The covid monetary incontinence started in March 2020. Core inflation didn’t materially exceed target until Aug 2021, which at 17mths is roughly in line with expected lags between monetary action and inflation.

    Funny things will have happened to inflation this cycle too due to the particular behavioural effects of covid, with pent up demand and labour shortages but balanced by the omicron bed wetting which dampened behaviours.

    In any case, add 17 months to when the BoE first started to really try and address inflation. I don’t personally start the clock until Aug 2022, the first 50bps raise which took rates to only 1.75%.

    So prediction time, core inflation will peak +- a couple of months around Jan 2024 and be back in range sometime Q2. The panic raises we are now seeing will only serve to tank the economy by mid 2024 and makes this unnecessarily unpleasant. The BoE have won the election for Starmer.

    It is easy to criticise in hindsight and with the benefit of time, but mistakes were made with the covid economic policies, no doubt.

    Furlough payments now look to have been too generous and the stamp duty cut irresponsible.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,744
    edited June 2023
    I am not sure which flip flop this day is for Keir Starmer

    Yesterday I will stop resignation honours lists

    Today labour will appoint over 100 peers as we do not have the expertise in government on our own benches
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,279
    Oh this is Rishi buggered some more.


  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,279
    edited June 2023

    I am not sure which flip flop this day is for Keir Starmer

    Yesterday I will stop resignation honours lists

    Today labour will appoint over 100 peers as we do not have the expertise in government on our own benches

    Those two statements aren't contradictory.

    If you look at the reason it is reasonable, Labour only has 174 peers, making up just 22% of the total.

    Crossbenchers have 183 peers and the Tories have 263 peers.

    This is to stop the Tories denying the will of the people after the next election.

    You should spend some time reading up on the People's Budget of 1909/10.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,269
    Westie said:

    Why is everyone at Westminster, including the Privileges Committee (point 39 of its report), playing along with the idea that an MP can resign at a moment of his own choosing and with immediate effect? It used to be common knowledge that they couldn't, and that they had to apply for the Chiltern Hundreds or Manor of Northstead. That's what both John Profumo and John Stonehouse did, for example.

    Has Boris Johnson destroyed parliamentary precedent in one surprise move, doubtless earning admiration from those such as Dominic Cummings and Stephen Bannon?

    Setting the electorate against the Commons ("We're sending him to you"..."We don't want him"..."What are you, a private members' club?") would make for nice theatre but isn't going to happen.

    According to the HoC library Johnson was made Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds on 12th June, 3 days after he signalled his intention to resign.

    At the moment he was appointed to that position he ceased to be an MP.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,838
    edited June 2023
    I know it's irrelevant electorally because Gov'ts lose elections. And boy does it look like the Tories are going to lose this one - but just how will Labour sort the inflation mess out ?

    Acquiescing to public sector pay demands might help the NHS - it certainly won't help inflation.
    Stopping new north sea oil licenses - in the long run that'll negatively affect our balance of payments and is probably a bit inflationary..
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,707

    Oh this is Rishi buggered some more.


    Funny thing is many of the 39% who say the BoE are probably those more knowledgeable about how the machinery of monetary policy works and therefore unlikely to be big fans of this current government anyway.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,744
    Miklosvar said:

    FF43 said:

    Something big happening in Indian aviation. Indigo and Air India have just put in orders for a total of a thousand jets at the Paris Airshow

    It has indeed and enormous boost for North Wales with all 500 aircraft wings built here in Wales

    Airbus secures biggest plane order in the history of commercial aviation

    https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/airbus-secures-biggest-plane-order-27153783#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
    I think you'll find that's 1,000 wings, BigG!
    It is indeed
    No it is not. 1,000 jets, 2 wings per jet, do the math.
    The order from IndiGo is for 500 A320s therefore 1,000 wings as I was correctly corrected

    This order takes the total number of IndiGo aircraft to 1,330 Airbus so the total order is for 2,660 wings which is an enormous boost to North Wales's and Cheshire's economies
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,063
    Foxy said:

    If enough idiots vote for him and he gets another MP gig, then surely the people have spoken/democracy in action, blah, blah, blah.
    But he ain't getting back in. He's done. Dusted. Labour are going to form the next government and Johnson will be irrelevant.

    I've asked the following question many times, but never get an answer. Who do PB Tories actually want to lead the party?

    Good morning

    For now Sunak, and post the election Penny Mordaunt possibly but would need to see how many conservative mps are available

    And for the record Sunak should have voted for the privileges committee rather than abstain under the pretext he was meeting Sweden's PM, and in PR terms it was the wrong decision
    Why Mordaunt?
    Best fit to the specification.

    A big enough beast to be plausible.

    Distant enough from the heart of government to be a step away from the clustershambles.

    Brexitty, so tolerable to the party, but not mad with it.

    Enough panache to carry the role off, because the panache of the leader might be all the Conservatives have for a while.

    Not sure she's up to being PM, but that probably doesn't matter. It wasn't meant to matter for Starmer. (Though in his case, I reckon he'll be a perfectly adequate PM, just poor at competitive elections.) Her real job
    will be to create a space where a future Conservative PM might emerge.
    I would add being socially liberal too, as need to get some appeal to post Boomer generations.


    Most of all, she is a confident and capable speaker in Parliament, with a bit of humour that will contrast well with the wooden Starmer.

    I don't think a great brain or potential PM, but a real threat as LOTO.
    A bit like the way that Michael Howard kept the show on the road for the Conservatives are their lowest ebb, knocked some chunks out of Labour and created space for Cameron. Cut to the useful bit of the opposition cycle, rather than detouring via Hague/IDS or MdM/Corbyn.

    Or, to take another metaphor, a John the Baptist to someone else's Jesus. I don't think she would be likely to win in 2028/9, but she
    definitely opens the door for 2033.

    Probably requires an MP stitchup for the leadership election to come, though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,140

    I am not sure which flip flop this day is for Keir Starmer

    Yesterday I will stop resignation honours lists

    Today labour will appoint over 100 peers as we do not have the expertise in government on our own benches

    Those two statements aren't contradictory.

    If you look at the reason it is reasonable, Labour only has 174 peers, making up just 22% of the total.

    Crossbenchers have 183 peers and the Tories have 263 peers.

    This is to stop the Tories denying the will of the people after the next election.

    You should spend some time reading up on the People's Budget of 1909/10.
    Actually the 500 Liberal peers were granted (but never elevated) to pass the Parliament Act of 1911.

    It would have been ironic if 500 Liberal peers had been created, giving them an inbuilt majority in the Lords in the 1920s even as their representation in the Commons dwindled to nothing...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,744

    I am not sure which flip flop this day is for Keir Starmer

    Yesterday I will stop resignation honours lists

    Today labour will appoint over 100 peers as we do not have the expertise in government on our own benches

    Those two statements aren't contradictory.

    If you look at the reason it is reasonable, Labour only has 174 peers, making up just 22% of the total.

    Crossbenchers have 183 peers and the Tories have 263 peers.

    This is to stop the Tories denying the will of the people after the next election.

    You should spend some time reading up on the People's Budget of 1909/10.
    I didn't say it was unreasonable it just looks like flip flopping again
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,279

    I am not sure which flip flop this day is for Keir Starmer

    Yesterday I will stop resignation honours lists

    Today labour will appoint over 100 peers as we do not have the expertise in government on our own benches

    Those two statements aren't contradictory.

    If you look at the reason it is reasonable, Labour only has 174 peers, making up just 22% of the total.

    Crossbenchers have 183 peers and the Tories have 263 peers.

    This is to stop the Tories denying the will of the people after the next election.

    You should spend some time reading up on the People's Budget of 1909/10.
    I didn't say it was unreasonable it just looks like flip flopping again
    It only looks like flip flopping if you’re a partisan.
This discussion has been closed.